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2022-11-24

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ Gogo Tiger!!

2022-11-23

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$

2022-11-16

Go SEA!!

Sea Shares Surged 11% as Sales Beat Estimate

2022-11-13

Thank you!

SPY: Bear Market Rally Or A Major Bottom?

2022-11-12

2022-10-03

$S&P 500(.SPX)$

2022-10-03

$SEA LTD(SE)$waiting

2022-10-03

$Sea Ltd(SE)$Go SEA!

2022-10-03

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Riding the story...

2022-09-30

Good learning

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-09-02

Step by step

2022-08-07

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$I love the app so much...When will the stock price reflect its worth? [Doubt]

2022-08-07

$SEA LTD(SE)$Come on! Supporting all the way!

2022-08-05

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Up before stock splitUp after stock splitWin win!!

2022-08-05

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$looking forward to stock split!!

2022-08-05

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Up, up and away!Theoretically yes, as demand risesHistorically yes, as the previous stock split

2022-08-03

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Let's go up more before profit taking!

2022-08-03

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$600

2022-07-22

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Woohoo, bull run has started!! Hop on soon, before its too late...

2022-07-22

$EVgo Inc.(EVGO)$yea bull run has started... hop on it asap!!

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> Gogo Tiger!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> Gogo Tiger!!","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ Gogo Tiger!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968673458","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3028,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968197006,"gmtCreate":1669158965405,"gmtModify":1676538158730,"author":{"id":"4096806837947780","authorId":"4096806837947780","name":"HolaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4d81d52207835e2cce9cd19b24ed16","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4096806837947780","idStr":"4096806837947780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968197006","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963019316,"gmtCreate":1668553540535,"gmtModify":1676538073475,"author":{"id":"4096806837947780","authorId":"4096806837947780","name":"HolaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4d81d52207835e2cce9cd19b24ed16","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4096806837947780","idStr":"4096806837947780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go SEA!!","listText":"Go SEA!!","text":"Go SEA!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963019316","repostId":"1121623335","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121623335","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1668512056,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1121623335?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-15 19:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Shares Surged 11% as Sales Beat Estimate","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121623335","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Sea shares surged 11% as sales beat estimate. Sea Q3 EPS $(0.66) beats $(1.09) estimate, sales $3.20","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Sea shares surged 11% as sales beat estimate. Sea Q3 EPS $(0.66) beats $(1.09) estimate, sales $3.20b beat $3.00b estimate.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb2657944b1732fa6976757f72f2d82c\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>E-commerce revenue grew 32.4% Y/Y to $1.98B. Gross orders totaled 2.B, an increase of 21.4% Y/Y.</p><p>&#34;Given rising macro uncertainties, and with reopening trends having an ongoing effect on the business, we are revising the guidance for digital entertainment. We now expect bookings for the full year of 2022 to be between US$2.6 billion and US$2.8 billion, as compared to the previous guidance of between US$2.9 billion to US$3.1 billion.&#34;</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Shares Surged 11% as Sales Beat Estimate</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Shares Surged 11% as Sales Beat Estimate\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-11-15 19:34</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Sea shares surged 11% as sales beat estimate. Sea Q3 EPS $(0.66) beats $(1.09) estimate, sales $3.20b beat $3.00b estimate.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb2657944b1732fa6976757f72f2d82c\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>E-commerce revenue grew 32.4% Y/Y to $1.98B. Gross orders totaled 2.B, an increase of 21.4% Y/Y.</p><p>&#34;Given rising macro uncertainties, and with reopening trends having an ongoing effect on the business, we are revising the guidance for digital entertainment. We now expect bookings for the full year of 2022 to be between US$2.6 billion and US$2.8 billion, as compared to the previous guidance of between US$2.9 billion to US$3.1 billion.&#34;</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121623335","content_text":"Sea shares surged 11% as sales beat estimate. Sea Q3 EPS $(0.66) beats $(1.09) estimate, sales $3.20b beat $3.00b estimate.E-commerce revenue grew 32.4% Y/Y to $1.98B. Gross orders totaled 2.B, an increase of 21.4% Y/Y.\"Given rising macro uncertainties, and with reopening trends having an ongoing effect on the business, we are revising the guidance for digital entertainment. We now expect bookings for the full year of 2022 to be between US$2.6 billion and US$2.8 billion, as compared to the previous guidance of between US$2.9 billion to US$3.1 billion.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2658,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9969963888,"gmtCreate":1668319440945,"gmtModify":1676538041156,"author":{"id":"4096806837947780","authorId":"4096806837947780","name":"HolaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4d81d52207835e2cce9cd19b24ed16","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4096806837947780","idStr":"4096806837947780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thank you!","listText":"Thank you!","text":"Thank you!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9969963888","repostId":"1190456060","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1190456060","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1668302284,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190456060?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-13 09:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SPY: Bear Market Rally Or A Major Bottom?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190456060","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryLarge 1-day rallies are usually associated with the bear market rallies.Major bottoms require a policy change.The Fed is still in inflation-fighting mode.gonin/iStock via Getty ImagesThe top 20: daily returns for S&P500The SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF  that tracks the S&P500 soared by 5.5% Thursday  - and almost broke into the top 20 daily S&P500 returns in history - since the 1920s. So, what doesit mean?","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Large 1-day rallies are usually associated with the bear market rallies.</li><li>Major bottoms require a policy change.</li><li>The Fed is still in inflation-fighting mode.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d234d2c3a6fdd66410e8c4fdc86a25\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>gonin/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><h2>The top 20: daily returns for S&amp;P500</h2><p>The SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) that tracks the S&amp;P500 soared by 5.5% Thursday (11/10/2022) - and almost broke into the top 20 daily S&amp;P500 returns in history - since the 1920s. So, what doesit mean? Is this just a bear market rally, or a signal of the major bottom. Let&#39;s first evaluate the top 20 list of the daily rates of return for the S&amp;P500:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a00554a6ad210b0ab26216de0667def\" tg-width=\"927\" tg-height=\"1314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As you can see from the list above,</p><ul><li>12 out 20 top daily returns were the bear market rallies, and 8 out of these 12 were during the 1929-1932 bear market and the Great Depression.</li><li>8 out of 20 were the near-bottoms, bottoms, or after-bottoms, and 6 of these 8 were during the bottom associated with the 1932 Great Depression bottom.</li><li>2 out of 8 bottoms were associated with the bottoms of the sharp corrections, the 1987 and the 2020 bottom. The 1987 correction was not associated with a recession, and it is generally considered as a technical in nature. The 2020 bottom was associated with the extraordinary events related to covid19 and the monetary and fiscal covid stimuli.</li></ul><p>Based on the historical evidence, the 5.6% daily spike in S&amp;P500 (SPX) is either a signal of a major bottom or just another bear market rally.</p><h2>The major bottom thesis</h2><p>The major bottom thesis requires an actual bear market capitulation, such as the 1932 bottom, the 2003 bottom or 2009 bottom. In each of these cases, there was a clear policy response to stimulate the economy, both monetary and fiscal.</p><p>The 11/10/22 daily spike was in response to the positive surprise in the CPI inflation, which raised the hope of the Fed pivot - or a less aggressive monetary policy tightening.</p><p>As I previously explained, the full bear market has3 stages:1) the liquidity selloff in response to the Fed&#39;s monetary policy tightening, 2) the recessionary selloff caused by the Fed&#39;s tightening, and 3) the credit crunch (or a financial crisis) triggered by the deep recession.</p><p>The bullish case assumes that the current bear market ended with the Phase 1 - or with the peak Fed hawkishness. It&#39;s true, we are likely past the peak inflation, and thus the peak hawkishness.</p><p>However, the question is whether there is a Phase 2 coming - or a recessionary selloff, and whether &#34;something will break&#34; during the process and cause the Phase 3 and the credit crunch.</p><h2>The recessionary selloff</h2><p>The S&amp;P500 PE ratio after the 11/10 spike is 20.58. The market is still overvalued and not priced for a recession.</p><p>Is the recession coming? The spread between the 10Y Treasury Bond yield and the 3-Month Treasury Bill yield is the most reliable and the Fed-favored recession indicator, and once it inverts, the recession becomes almost a certainty.</p><p>Currently, the 10y-3mo spread is deeply inverted at -0.46%. Here is the chart:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70ef81e28bf62d769ca5f75f29feb339\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"237\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>FRED</span></p><p>Based on yield curve spread indicator, the recession is coming, and the market is not priced for it - based on the PE ratio of over 20. Thus, the current bear market has not bottomed yet, and the next Phase of the bear market is coming.</p><h2>Why is the 10Y-3mo curve inverted? Why is this signaling a recession?</h2><p>The 10Y-3mo spread is inverted because the Fed is hiking the short-term interest rates above the long-term interest rates. Why? To cause a recession to bring the inflation down.</p><p>The market hopes that the Fed will slow down with the interest rates hikes, because the inflation has peaked. Too late. The damage has been done. The Fed could even stop after the December 50bpt hike, the 10y-3mo spread has already inverted.</p><p>But don&#39;t count on the Fed to pause yet. If the core CPI printed today 4.3% (instead of actual 6.3%), and that was expected to persist, the Fed would still have to further hike. The target is 2% inflation.</p><p>But don&#39;t expect inflation to sharply fall either - without a deep recession. The economic war with China is still active, and it&#39;s more likely to escalate. This is inflationary. The war in Ukraine is still active and it&#39;s more likely to escalate. This is also inflationary. The unemployment rate in the US is still near record lows, and this is inflationary. The only thing the Fed can influence is the US unemployment rate - by inducing a recession.</p><h2>It&#39;s a bear market rally</h2><p>We are not at a major bottom; we are possibly in-between the Phase 1 selloff and a Phase 2 recessionary selloff. There are already signs of &#34;things breaking&#34; like the cryptocurrencies, which could lead to the Phase 3 selloff.</p><p>Bear market rallies happen during the &#34;in-between periods&#34;, so this bear market rally could continue. The bottom will be in-place when the Fed wants to the bottom to be in place - this will be the pivot the bulls are waiting: the Fed slashing interest rates and resuming QE. I don&#39;t think anybody expects this over the near term. Don&#39;t fight the Fed. The bear market rally is the opportunity to sell or re-short.</p><h2>SPY sector analysis</h2><p>AllSPYsectors were up significantly on 11/10/2022, led by the beaten down technology sector (XLK), the interest rate sensitive real estate sector (XLRE) and the cyclical discretionary sector (XLY). These sectors should not lead pre-recession, while the Fed is trying to cool off economy.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d11bae7fc6e9bba3dee9e588bd902bb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>SelectSectorSPDR</span></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPY: Bear Market Rally Or A Major Bottom?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPY: Bear Market Rally Or A Major Bottom?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-13 09:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4556371-spy-bear-market-rally-or-a-major-bottom><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryLarge 1-day rallies are usually associated with the bear market rallies.Major bottoms require a policy change.The Fed is still in inflation-fighting mode.gonin/iStock via Getty ImagesThe top 20...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4556371-spy-bear-market-rally-or-a-major-bottom\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4556371-spy-bear-market-rally-or-a-major-bottom","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190456060","content_text":"SummaryLarge 1-day rallies are usually associated with the bear market rallies.Major bottoms require a policy change.The Fed is still in inflation-fighting mode.gonin/iStock via Getty ImagesThe top 20: daily returns for S&P500The SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) that tracks the S&P500 soared by 5.5% Thursday (11/10/2022) - and almost broke into the top 20 daily S&P500 returns in history - since the 1920s. So, what doesit mean? Is this just a bear market rally, or a signal of the major bottom. Let's first evaluate the top 20 list of the daily rates of return for the S&P500:As you can see from the list above,12 out 20 top daily returns were the bear market rallies, and 8 out of these 12 were during the 1929-1932 bear market and the Great Depression.8 out of 20 were the near-bottoms, bottoms, or after-bottoms, and 6 of these 8 were during the bottom associated with the 1932 Great Depression bottom.2 out of 8 bottoms were associated with the bottoms of the sharp corrections, the 1987 and the 2020 bottom. The 1987 correction was not associated with a recession, and it is generally considered as a technical in nature. The 2020 bottom was associated with the extraordinary events related to covid19 and the monetary and fiscal covid stimuli.Based on the historical evidence, the 5.6% daily spike in S&P500 (SPX) is either a signal of a major bottom or just another bear market rally.The major bottom thesisThe major bottom thesis requires an actual bear market capitulation, such as the 1932 bottom, the 2003 bottom or 2009 bottom. In each of these cases, there was a clear policy response to stimulate the economy, both monetary and fiscal.The 11/10/22 daily spike was in response to the positive surprise in the CPI inflation, which raised the hope of the Fed pivot - or a less aggressive monetary policy tightening.As I previously explained, the full bear market has3 stages:1) the liquidity selloff in response to the Fed's monetary policy tightening, 2) the recessionary selloff caused by the Fed's tightening, and 3) the credit crunch (or a financial crisis) triggered by the deep recession.The bullish case assumes that the current bear market ended with the Phase 1 - or with the peak Fed hawkishness. It's true, we are likely past the peak inflation, and thus the peak hawkishness.However, the question is whether there is a Phase 2 coming - or a recessionary selloff, and whether \"something will break\" during the process and cause the Phase 3 and the credit crunch.The recessionary selloffThe S&P500 PE ratio after the 11/10 spike is 20.58. The market is still overvalued and not priced for a recession.Is the recession coming? The spread between the 10Y Treasury Bond yield and the 3-Month Treasury Bill yield is the most reliable and the Fed-favored recession indicator, and once it inverts, the recession becomes almost a certainty.Currently, the 10y-3mo spread is deeply inverted at -0.46%. Here is the chart:FREDBased on yield curve spread indicator, the recession is coming, and the market is not priced for it - based on the PE ratio of over 20. Thus, the current bear market has not bottomed yet, and the next Phase of the bear market is coming.Why is the 10Y-3mo curve inverted? Why is this signaling a recession?The 10Y-3mo spread is inverted because the Fed is hiking the short-term interest rates above the long-term interest rates. Why? To cause a recession to bring the inflation down.The market hopes that the Fed will slow down with the interest rates hikes, because the inflation has peaked. Too late. The damage has been done. The Fed could even stop after the December 50bpt hike, the 10y-3mo spread has already inverted.But don't count on the Fed to pause yet. If the core CPI printed today 4.3% (instead of actual 6.3%), and that was expected to persist, the Fed would still have to further hike. The target is 2% inflation.But don't expect inflation to sharply fall either - without a deep recession. The economic war with China is still active, and it's more likely to escalate. This is inflationary. The war in Ukraine is still active and it's more likely to escalate. This is also inflationary. The unemployment rate in the US is still near record lows, and this is inflationary. The only thing the Fed can influence is the US unemployment rate - by inducing a recession.It's a bear market rallyWe are not at a major bottom; we are possibly in-between the Phase 1 selloff and a Phase 2 recessionary selloff. There are already signs of \"things breaking\" like the cryptocurrencies, which could lead to the Phase 3 selloff.Bear market rallies happen during the \"in-between periods\", so this bear market rally could continue. The bottom will be in-place when the Fed wants to the bottom to be in place - this will be the pivot the bulls are waiting: the Fed slashing interest rates and resuming QE. I don't think anybody expects this over the near term. Don't fight the Fed. The bear market rally is the opportunity to sell or re-short.SPY sector analysisAllSPYsectors were up significantly on 11/10/2022, led by the beaten down technology sector (XLK), the interest rate sensitive real estate sector (XLRE) and the cyclical discretionary sector (XLY). These sectors should not lead pre-recession, while the Fed is trying to cool off economy.SelectSectorSPDR","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3531,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9960592188,"gmtCreate":1668206942945,"gmtModify":1676538027260,"author":{"id":"4096806837947780","authorId":"4096806837947780","name":"HolaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4d81d52207835e2cce9cd19b24ed16","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4096806837947780","idStr":"4096806837947780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v 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story...","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/86ba55157ef5aab933b9dff3d7720cf5","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912112326","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3041,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916349892,"gmtCreate":1664517904016,"gmtModify":1676537470563,"author":{"id":"4096806837947780","authorId":"4096806837947780","name":"HolaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4d81d52207835e2cce9cd19b24ed16","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4096806837947780","idStr":"4096806837947780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good learning","listText":"Good learning","text":"Good 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split!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>looking forward to stock split!!","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$looking forward to stock split!!","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e8807e0bb610ed0d55af74bc75431eec","width":"1080","height":"3374"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9902972807","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1276,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9902976076,"gmtCreate":1659650472797,"gmtModify":1705586638153,"author":{"id":"4096806837947780","authorId":"4096806837947780","name":"HolaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4d81d52207835e2cce9cd19b24ed16","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4096806837947780","idStr":"4096806837947780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Up, up and away!Theoretically yes, as demand risesHistorically yes, as the previous stock split","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Up, up and away!Theoretically yes, as demand risesHistorically yes, as the previous stock split","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Up, up and away!Theoretically yes, as demand risesHistorically yes, as the previous stock split","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9902976076","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1582,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9906056969,"gmtCreate":1659474082954,"gmtModify":1705980574865,"author":{"id":"4096806837947780","authorId":"4096806837947780","name":"HolaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4d81d52207835e2cce9cd19b24ed16","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4096806837947780","idStr":"4096806837947780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Let's go up more before profit taking!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Let's go up more before profit taking!","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Let's go up more before profit taking!","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d3eb6a7b82638e93330a88bf5e407656","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9906056969","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1923,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9906058435,"gmtCreate":1659473995930,"gmtModify":1705980574378,"author":{"id":"4096806837947780","authorId":"4096806837947780","name":"HolaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4d81d52207835e2cce9cd19b24ed16","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4096806837947780","idStr":"4096806837947780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>600","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>600","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$600","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9906058435","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9077091349,"gmtCreate":1658422893181,"gmtModify":1676536156286,"author":{"id":"4096806837947780","authorId":"4096806837947780","name":"HolaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4d81d52207835e2cce9cd19b24ed16","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4096806837947780","idStr":"4096806837947780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Woohoo, bull run has started!! Hop on soon, before its too late...","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Woohoo, bull run has started!! Hop on soon, before its too late...","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Woohoo, bull run has started!! Hop on soon, before its too late...","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dff81922f34571bdbbdfdecf9fd3a35a","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9077091349","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9077093755,"gmtCreate":1658422805578,"gmtModify":1676536156275,"author":{"id":"4096806837947780","authorId":"4096806837947780","name":"HolaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4d81d52207835e2cce9cd19b24ed16","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4096806837947780","idStr":"4096806837947780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/EVGO\">$EVgo Inc.(EVGO)$</a>yea bull run has started... hop on it asap!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/EVGO\">$EVgo Inc.(EVGO)$</a>yea bull run has started... hop on it asap!!","text":"$EVgo Inc.(EVGO)$yea bull run has started... hop on it asap!!","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3fcd77df6633ff16a92868527083ddba","width":"1080","height":"2289"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9077093755","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":979,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9969963888,"gmtCreate":1668319440945,"gmtModify":1676538041156,"author":{"id":"4096806837947780","authorId":"4096806837947780","name":"HolaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4d81d52207835e2cce9cd19b24ed16","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096806837947780","authorIdStr":"4096806837947780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thank you!","listText":"Thank you!","text":"Thank you!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9969963888","repostId":"1190456060","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1190456060","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1668302284,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190456060?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-13 09:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SPY: Bear Market Rally Or A Major Bottom?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190456060","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryLarge 1-day rallies are usually associated with the bear market rallies.Major bottoms require a policy change.The Fed is still in inflation-fighting mode.gonin/iStock via Getty ImagesThe top 20: daily returns for S&P500The SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF  that tracks the S&P500 soared by 5.5% Thursday  - and almost broke into the top 20 daily S&P500 returns in history - since the 1920s. So, what doesit mean?","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Large 1-day rallies are usually associated with the bear market rallies.</li><li>Major bottoms require a policy change.</li><li>The Fed is still in inflation-fighting mode.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d234d2c3a6fdd66410e8c4fdc86a25\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>gonin/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><h2>The top 20: daily returns for S&amp;P500</h2><p>The SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) that tracks the S&amp;P500 soared by 5.5% Thursday (11/10/2022) - and almost broke into the top 20 daily S&amp;P500 returns in history - since the 1920s. So, what doesit mean? Is this just a bear market rally, or a signal of the major bottom. Let&#39;s first evaluate the top 20 list of the daily rates of return for the S&amp;P500:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a00554a6ad210b0ab26216de0667def\" tg-width=\"927\" tg-height=\"1314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As you can see from the list above,</p><ul><li>12 out 20 top daily returns were the bear market rallies, and 8 out of these 12 were during the 1929-1932 bear market and the Great Depression.</li><li>8 out of 20 were the near-bottoms, bottoms, or after-bottoms, and 6 of these 8 were during the bottom associated with the 1932 Great Depression bottom.</li><li>2 out of 8 bottoms were associated with the bottoms of the sharp corrections, the 1987 and the 2020 bottom. The 1987 correction was not associated with a recession, and it is generally considered as a technical in nature. The 2020 bottom was associated with the extraordinary events related to covid19 and the monetary and fiscal covid stimuli.</li></ul><p>Based on the historical evidence, the 5.6% daily spike in S&amp;P500 (SPX) is either a signal of a major bottom or just another bear market rally.</p><h2>The major bottom thesis</h2><p>The major bottom thesis requires an actual bear market capitulation, such as the 1932 bottom, the 2003 bottom or 2009 bottom. In each of these cases, there was a clear policy response to stimulate the economy, both monetary and fiscal.</p><p>The 11/10/22 daily spike was in response to the positive surprise in the CPI inflation, which raised the hope of the Fed pivot - or a less aggressive monetary policy tightening.</p><p>As I previously explained, the full bear market has3 stages:1) the liquidity selloff in response to the Fed&#39;s monetary policy tightening, 2) the recessionary selloff caused by the Fed&#39;s tightening, and 3) the credit crunch (or a financial crisis) triggered by the deep recession.</p><p>The bullish case assumes that the current bear market ended with the Phase 1 - or with the peak Fed hawkishness. It&#39;s true, we are likely past the peak inflation, and thus the peak hawkishness.</p><p>However, the question is whether there is a Phase 2 coming - or a recessionary selloff, and whether &#34;something will break&#34; during the process and cause the Phase 3 and the credit crunch.</p><h2>The recessionary selloff</h2><p>The S&amp;P500 PE ratio after the 11/10 spike is 20.58. The market is still overvalued and not priced for a recession.</p><p>Is the recession coming? The spread between the 10Y Treasury Bond yield and the 3-Month Treasury Bill yield is the most reliable and the Fed-favored recession indicator, and once it inverts, the recession becomes almost a certainty.</p><p>Currently, the 10y-3mo spread is deeply inverted at -0.46%. Here is the chart:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70ef81e28bf62d769ca5f75f29feb339\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"237\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>FRED</span></p><p>Based on yield curve spread indicator, the recession is coming, and the market is not priced for it - based on the PE ratio of over 20. Thus, the current bear market has not bottomed yet, and the next Phase of the bear market is coming.</p><h2>Why is the 10Y-3mo curve inverted? Why is this signaling a recession?</h2><p>The 10Y-3mo spread is inverted because the Fed is hiking the short-term interest rates above the long-term interest rates. Why? To cause a recession to bring the inflation down.</p><p>The market hopes that the Fed will slow down with the interest rates hikes, because the inflation has peaked. Too late. The damage has been done. The Fed could even stop after the December 50bpt hike, the 10y-3mo spread has already inverted.</p><p>But don&#39;t count on the Fed to pause yet. If the core CPI printed today 4.3% (instead of actual 6.3%), and that was expected to persist, the Fed would still have to further hike. The target is 2% inflation.</p><p>But don&#39;t expect inflation to sharply fall either - without a deep recession. The economic war with China is still active, and it&#39;s more likely to escalate. This is inflationary. The war in Ukraine is still active and it&#39;s more likely to escalate. This is also inflationary. The unemployment rate in the US is still near record lows, and this is inflationary. The only thing the Fed can influence is the US unemployment rate - by inducing a recession.</p><h2>It&#39;s a bear market rally</h2><p>We are not at a major bottom; we are possibly in-between the Phase 1 selloff and a Phase 2 recessionary selloff. There are already signs of &#34;things breaking&#34; like the cryptocurrencies, which could lead to the Phase 3 selloff.</p><p>Bear market rallies happen during the &#34;in-between periods&#34;, so this bear market rally could continue. The bottom will be in-place when the Fed wants to the bottom to be in place - this will be the pivot the bulls are waiting: the Fed slashing interest rates and resuming QE. I don&#39;t think anybody expects this over the near term. Don&#39;t fight the Fed. The bear market rally is the opportunity to sell or re-short.</p><h2>SPY sector analysis</h2><p>AllSPYsectors were up significantly on 11/10/2022, led by the beaten down technology sector (XLK), the interest rate sensitive real estate sector (XLRE) and the cyclical discretionary sector (XLY). These sectors should not lead pre-recession, while the Fed is trying to cool off economy.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d11bae7fc6e9bba3dee9e588bd902bb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>SelectSectorSPDR</span></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPY: Bear Market Rally Or A Major Bottom?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPY: Bear Market Rally Or A Major Bottom?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-13 09:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4556371-spy-bear-market-rally-or-a-major-bottom><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryLarge 1-day rallies are usually associated with the bear market rallies.Major bottoms require a policy change.The Fed is still in inflation-fighting mode.gonin/iStock via Getty ImagesThe top 20...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4556371-spy-bear-market-rally-or-a-major-bottom\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4556371-spy-bear-market-rally-or-a-major-bottom","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190456060","content_text":"SummaryLarge 1-day rallies are usually associated with the bear market rallies.Major bottoms require a policy change.The Fed is still in inflation-fighting mode.gonin/iStock via Getty ImagesThe top 20: daily returns for S&P500The SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) that tracks the S&P500 soared by 5.5% Thursday (11/10/2022) - and almost broke into the top 20 daily S&P500 returns in history - since the 1920s. So, what doesit mean? Is this just a bear market rally, or a signal of the major bottom. Let's first evaluate the top 20 list of the daily rates of return for the S&P500:As you can see from the list above,12 out 20 top daily returns were the bear market rallies, and 8 out of these 12 were during the 1929-1932 bear market and the Great Depression.8 out of 20 were the near-bottoms, bottoms, or after-bottoms, and 6 of these 8 were during the bottom associated with the 1932 Great Depression bottom.2 out of 8 bottoms were associated with the bottoms of the sharp corrections, the 1987 and the 2020 bottom. The 1987 correction was not associated with a recession, and it is generally considered as a technical in nature. The 2020 bottom was associated with the extraordinary events related to covid19 and the monetary and fiscal covid stimuli.Based on the historical evidence, the 5.6% daily spike in S&P500 (SPX) is either a signal of a major bottom or just another bear market rally.The major bottom thesisThe major bottom thesis requires an actual bear market capitulation, such as the 1932 bottom, the 2003 bottom or 2009 bottom. In each of these cases, there was a clear policy response to stimulate the economy, both monetary and fiscal.The 11/10/22 daily spike was in response to the positive surprise in the CPI inflation, which raised the hope of the Fed pivot - or a less aggressive monetary policy tightening.As I previously explained, the full bear market has3 stages:1) the liquidity selloff in response to the Fed's monetary policy tightening, 2) the recessionary selloff caused by the Fed's tightening, and 3) the credit crunch (or a financial crisis) triggered by the deep recession.The bullish case assumes that the current bear market ended with the Phase 1 - or with the peak Fed hawkishness. It's true, we are likely past the peak inflation, and thus the peak hawkishness.However, the question is whether there is a Phase 2 coming - or a recessionary selloff, and whether \"something will break\" during the process and cause the Phase 3 and the credit crunch.The recessionary selloffThe S&P500 PE ratio after the 11/10 spike is 20.58. The market is still overvalued and not priced for a recession.Is the recession coming? The spread between the 10Y Treasury Bond yield and the 3-Month Treasury Bill yield is the most reliable and the Fed-favored recession indicator, and once it inverts, the recession becomes almost a certainty.Currently, the 10y-3mo spread is deeply inverted at -0.46%. Here is the chart:FREDBased on yield curve spread indicator, the recession is coming, and the market is not priced for it - based on the PE ratio of over 20. Thus, the current bear market has not bottomed yet, and the next Phase of the bear market is coming.Why is the 10Y-3mo curve inverted? Why is this signaling a recession?The 10Y-3mo spread is inverted because the Fed is hiking the short-term interest rates above the long-term interest rates. Why? To cause a recession to bring the inflation down.The market hopes that the Fed will slow down with the interest rates hikes, because the inflation has peaked. Too late. The damage has been done. The Fed could even stop after the December 50bpt hike, the 10y-3mo spread has already inverted.But don't count on the Fed to pause yet. If the core CPI printed today 4.3% (instead of actual 6.3%), and that was expected to persist, the Fed would still have to further hike. The target is 2% inflation.But don't expect inflation to sharply fall either - without a deep recession. The economic war with China is still active, and it's more likely to escalate. This is inflationary. The war in Ukraine is still active and it's more likely to escalate. This is also inflationary. The unemployment rate in the US is still near record lows, and this is inflationary. The only thing the Fed can influence is the US unemployment rate - by inducing a recession.It's a bear market rallyWe are not at a major bottom; we are possibly in-between the Phase 1 selloff and a Phase 2 recessionary selloff. There are already signs of \"things breaking\" like the cryptocurrencies, which could lead to the Phase 3 selloff.Bear market rallies happen during the \"in-between periods\", so this bear market rally could continue. The bottom will be in-place when the Fed wants to the bottom to be in place - this will be the pivot the bulls are waiting: the Fed slashing interest rates and resuming QE. I don't think anybody expects this over the near term. Don't fight the Fed. The bear market rally is the opportunity to sell or re-short.SPY sector analysisAllSPYsectors were up significantly on 11/10/2022, led by the beaten down technology sector (XLK), the interest rate sensitive real estate sector (XLRE) and the cyclical discretionary sector (XLY). These sectors should not lead pre-recession, while the Fed is trying to cool off economy.SelectSectorSPDR","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3531,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9906056969,"gmtCreate":1659474082954,"gmtModify":1705980574865,"author":{"id":"4096806837947780","authorId":"4096806837947780","name":"HolaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4d81d52207835e2cce9cd19b24ed16","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096806837947780","authorIdStr":"4096806837947780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Let's go up more before profit taking!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Let's go up more before profit taking!","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Let's go up more before profit taking!","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d3eb6a7b82638e93330a88bf5e407656","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9906056969","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1923,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9906058435,"gmtCreate":1659473995930,"gmtModify":1705980574378,"author":{"id":"4096806837947780","authorId":"4096806837947780","name":"HolaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4d81d52207835e2cce9cd19b24ed16","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096806837947780","authorIdStr":"4096806837947780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>600","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>600","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$600","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9906058435","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9077091349,"gmtCreate":1658422893181,"gmtModify":1676536156286,"author":{"id":"4096806837947780","authorId":"4096806837947780","name":"HolaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4d81d52207835e2cce9cd19b24ed16","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096806837947780","authorIdStr":"4096806837947780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Woohoo, bull run has started!! Hop on soon, before its too late...","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Woohoo, bull run has started!! Hop on soon, before its too late...","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Woohoo, bull run has started!! Hop on soon, before its too late...","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dff81922f34571bdbbdfdecf9fd3a35a","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9077091349","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9905639183,"gmtCreate":1659867007644,"gmtModify":1703767223778,"author":{"id":"4096806837947780","authorId":"4096806837947780","name":"HolaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4d81d52207835e2cce9cd19b24ed16","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096806837947780","authorIdStr":"4096806837947780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>I love the app so much...When will the stock price reflect its worth?&nbsp;[Doubt]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>I love the app so much...When will the stock price reflect its worth?&nbsp;[Doubt]&nbsp;","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$I love the app so much...When will the stock price reflect its worth? [Doubt]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a5ca3d760bcbc39afba786966d9d15fd","width":"1080","height":"3501"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9905639183","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1258,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968673458,"gmtCreate":1669222345374,"gmtModify":1676538169899,"author":{"id":"4096806837947780","authorId":"4096806837947780","name":"HolaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4d81d52207835e2cce9cd19b24ed16","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096806837947780","authorIdStr":"4096806837947780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> Gogo Tiger!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> Gogo Tiger!!","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ Gogo Tiger!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968673458","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3028,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9902972784,"gmtCreate":1659650753550,"gmtModify":1705586651435,"author":{"id":"4096806837947780","authorId":"4096806837947780","name":"HolaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4d81d52207835e2cce9cd19b24ed16","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096806837947780","authorIdStr":"4096806837947780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Up before stock splitUp after stock splitWin win!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Up before stock splitUp after stock splitWin win!!","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Up before stock splitUp after stock splitWin win!!","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/144e2e719f89212522226a6ee8754d29","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9902972784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1209,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9902972807,"gmtCreate":1659650668111,"gmtModify":1705586649007,"author":{"id":"4096806837947780","authorId":"4096806837947780","name":"HolaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4d81d52207835e2cce9cd19b24ed16","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096806837947780","authorIdStr":"4096806837947780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>looking forward to stock split!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>looking forward to stock split!!","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$looking forward to stock split!!","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e8807e0bb610ed0d55af74bc75431eec","width":"1080","height":"3374"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9902972807","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1276,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9902976076,"gmtCreate":1659650472797,"gmtModify":1705586638153,"author":{"id":"4096806837947780","authorId":"4096806837947780","name":"HolaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4d81d52207835e2cce9cd19b24ed16","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096806837947780","authorIdStr":"4096806837947780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Up, up and away!Theoretically yes, as demand risesHistorically yes, as the previous stock split","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Up, up and away!Theoretically yes, as demand risesHistorically yes, as the previous stock split","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Up, up and away!Theoretically yes, as demand risesHistorically yes, as the previous stock split","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9902976076","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1582,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968197006,"gmtCreate":1669158965405,"gmtModify":1676538158730,"author":{"id":"4096806837947780","authorId":"4096806837947780","name":"HolaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4d81d52207835e2cce9cd19b24ed16","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096806837947780","authorIdStr":"4096806837947780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968197006","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}