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Heavy breakout! The central bank announced: a comprehensive RRR cut, releasing 530 billion funds!

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The central bank announced: a comprehensive RRR cut, releasing 530 billion funds!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144854803","media":"中国人民银行","summary":"4月15日，中国人民银行：中国人民银行决定于2022年4月25日下调金融机构存款准备金率0.25个百分点。为支持实体经济发展，促进综合融资成本稳中有降，中国人民银行决定于2022年4月25日下调金融机","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>April 15, People's Bank of China: The People's Bank of China decided to lower the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25, 2022.</p><p>In order to support the development of the real economy and promote a steady reduction in comprehensive financing costs, the People's Bank of China decided to lower the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25, 2022 (excluding financial institutions that have implemented a 5% deposit reserve ratio). In order to increase support for small and micro enterprises and \"agriculture, rural areas and farmers\", for city commercial banks that do not operate across provinces and rural commercial banks with a deposit reserve ratio higher than 5%, on the basis of lowering the deposit reserve ratio by 0.25 percentage points, an additional 0.25 percentage points will be reduced. After this reduction, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is 8.1%.</p><p>The People's Bank of China will adhere to the principle of stability, strive for progress while maintaining stability, continue to implement a prudent monetary policy, avoid flooding, take into account internal and external balance, better play the dual functions of monetary policy tools in total volume and structure, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, keep the growth rate of money supply and social financing basically match the nominal economic growth rate, stimulate market vitality, support financing in key areas and weak links, and create a suitable monetary and financial environment for high-quality development and supply-side structural reform.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ada880b3dbaa518de26c2db245ace44\" tg-width=\"1470\" tg-height=\"812\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The impact of RRR cuts on the market</b></p><p><b>Why the RRR cut?</b></p><p>Ming Ming, co-chief economist of CITIC Securities, said that although the maturity scale of MLF is low in the next quarter, there are still liquidity gaps caused by the peak tax period, the centralized issuance of government bonds, and the large maturity scale of interbank certificates of deposit, which may be used as the trigger of RRR cut. Secondly, from the perspective of expanding the scale of new loans, the current bank excess reserve ratio is declining again. To further guide financial institutions to increase credit supply and reduce loan interest rates, on the one hand, it is necessary to make up for the medium and long-term funding gap, and on the other hand, it is necessary to reduce the debt cost.</p><p>Li Chao, chief economist of Zheshang Securities, believes that the epidemic has aggravated the uncertainty of economic fundamentals and increased the downward pressure on the economy. At present, the monetary policy still takes steady growth as its primary goal, and the focus is on credit. Credit is the most effective means to ease credit, and it is an effective way to promote enterprises to expand capital expenditure and prevent financial idling.</p><p>Huang Wentao, chief economist of CITIC Securities, analyzed that the downward pressure on the economy has increased: First, the impact of the pulse epidemic has had a significant impact on domestic and foreign demand and confidence. At present, the domestic sporadic epidemic still has a significant impact on my country's economy, and various issues such as consumption, real estate, infrastructure, and income are facing greater pressure. Especially when the economic data of the first quarter is about to be released, we judge that the data of the first quarter may be lower than market expectations. Second, the momentum of exports may fall back, Baidu's momentum of economic recovery has weakened, the economic high point has passed, there are unfavorable factors for overseas recovery, and durable goods and other product types that are in line with my country's exports are also slightly overdrawn in the early stage. Third, domestic real estate and its industrial chain are facing liquidity pressure and default impact, and the growth rate of the entire industrial chain is declining rapidly.</p><p><b>The implementation of the RRR cut will help companies bail out during the epidemic, boost the real economy, and help stabilize stocks and bonds.</b></p><p>China Merchants Fund commented that the 4.13 National Standing Committee pointed out that \"large banks with high provision levels are encouraged to reduce the provision coverage ratio in an orderly manner\", and in terms of monetary policy, it emphasized \"further increasing financial support for the real economy, especially industries severely affected by the epidemic. and support for small, medium and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households.\"</p><p>Under the impact of the epidemic, banks have reduced the provision coverage ratio, which will help increase the support of credit funds to entities; At the same time, we will increase support for industries and small and micro enterprises seriously affected by the epidemic, which has obvious characteristics of helping enterprises bail out during the epidemic, and will also help to broaden credit.</p><p>However, it should be noted that since the current financing demand of the real economy is still sluggish and the epidemic has suppressed the economic vitality, in the case of loose liquidity, it is necessary to be alert to idling funds and enterprises \"borrowing new to repay old\", which may weaken the actual pulling effect of monetary easing on the real economy to a certain extent.</p><p>For the capital market, after previous RRR cuts, the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 have higher short-term winning rates, while the medium and long-term winning rates have declined but the increase has expanded; The bond market can better reflect the expectation of RRR cut in advance, and interest rates are mixed after the RRR cut is implemented. Therefore, given that the market expectation of this RRR cut is relatively sufficient, it is expected that the RRR cut will be beneficial to the stock market in the short term, but to the bond market to a limited extent.</p><p><b>Xinhua Fund's evaluation of RRR cut: It will be beneficial to the market to a certain extent, and the low valuation direction that benefits from steady growth in the short term is expected to continue to dominate</b></p><p>Zhang Lin, director of the research department and fund manager of Xinhua Fund, said that the core purpose of the RRR cut is to extend credit support to industries affected by the epidemic and small, medium and micro enterprises, reduce their financing costs, and thereby stabilize employment. This shows the determination and attitude of the regulatory authorities to stabilize the economy, which is beneficial to the market and will change the rhythm of market operation. However, considering the impact of economic fundamentals on the market, this will not change the overall direction of market operation.</p><p>We believe that since the end of February, the spread of domestic epidemics and overseas geopolitical conflicts have had a significant impact on stable growth and corporate profit distribution patterns. The short-term corporate profit distribution pattern will also deteriorate. The economy will face pressure to break through 5 in the first quarter. Looking forward, fiscal efforts and social financing recovery are relatively certain, and real estate is also expected to recover to the 2019 level. The main variable is that virus mutation has increasingly higher requirements for blockades, which will have a more severe impact on the economy. Against the background that consumption and infrastructure were restricted by the epidemic in the second and third quarters, and real estate investment was difficult to recover quickly, the government lacked an obvious \"grasp\" to stabilize growth. Therefore, even if the unemployment rate shows an inflection point after the epidemic, the speed of employment recovery may still be slower than expected. Once it is difficult for the government to achieve the employment target of 5.5% within the year, the central bank may cut interest rates through MLF to support the economy and promote employment, and temporarily shelve the exchange rate and capital outflow risks caused by the inversion of Sino-US interest rate spreads. As the policy side is actively responding to the greater uncertainties and challenges faced by the economic operation, the low valuation direction that benefits from steady growth in the short term is expected to continue to dominate, while the overweight opportunities in the growth direction still need to wait for the effective control of the epidemic and the economic stabilization again.</p><p><b>The impact of the RRR cut on the bond market is relatively limited, and the equity market may face a structural rebound in the future</b></p><p>Zou Deli, general manager of the fixed income investment department of Great Wall Fund, said that at present, with the weak performance of the stock market and the continued sluggish real estate sales, especially the local outbreak of epidemics in many places, economic growth is under greater pressure. Under the background of steady growth and wide credit, credit supply further increased from March to April. At this time, it is a more appropriate time window to provide liquidity to support credit supply through RRR cuts.</p><p>He pointed out that from the historical situation, the RRR cut operation will not affect the central bank's decision on whether to cut interest rates. This week's National Standing Committee's formulation of \"reducing comprehensive financing costs\" requires more interest rate cuts to be realized, and the epidemic has impacted economic growth expectations. We judge that it is possible to further reduce MLF and LPR interest rates. The better time window for interest rate cuts is in the second quarter, and April may be a better choice when the Fed's rate hike window is empty.</p><p>Under the current scenario where monetary easing expectations are relatively sufficient, the impact of the RRR cut on the bond market is relatively limited. The National Standing Committee mentioned that the ten-year Treasury Bond will only fall by about 2BP after the RRR cut. The key lies in whether the policy interest rate is lowered. If the MLF interest rate is lowered, the bond market will usher in major benefits, and the bond interest rate will further decline. Overall, this year, the bond market was bullish in the first half of the year due to the pressure on economic growth brought by the spread of the epidemic, and may be bearish in the second half of the year due to stimulating economic recovery. In terms of the equity market, after the overall surge in the previous two years, it may be necessary to lower the expectation of investment returns for the whole year, but it should be at the bottom of the policy and the bottom of the market at present, and there may be a structural rebound in the future.</p><p><b>Stock Market Impact</b></p><p>According to the Industrial Securities strategy, the RRR cut is expected to boost short-term market sentiment. One week after the previous RRR cuts, the market has a high probability of rising, and the GEM Index and CSI 300 have a rising probability of 60%; Judging from the median rise and fall, the GEM index performed better than the CSI 300 one week after the RRR cut, and the growth and consumption in style were better than the cycle and finance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38a8ae8b1a97f0339dd07a63ec5794d8\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"782\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Bond market impact</b></p><p>According to the fixed income team of GF Securities, the impact on the bond market: liquidity is difficult to be loosened, and it is expected that it may turn to loose credit</p><p>The impact of RRR cuts on interest rates is mainly at two levels: First, the liquidity level. The impact of the RRR cut on the bond market through liquidity ultimately depends on the level at which the overnight funding interest rate will stabilize after the RRR cut, whether it is 1.5%, 1.8% or 2.0%. The interest rate of funds directly affects the interest rate of the bond market by leveraging the cost of funds.</p><p>The second is the expected level. After policies such as RRR cuts or interest rate cuts are implemented, bond market investors pay attention to whether there will be interest rate cuts in the future, which often determines the room for long-term interest rates to decline. We expect that under the external constraints of the Federal Reserve's rapid tightening of monetary policy, in order to take into account the external balance, the possibility of lowering MLF and reverse repurchase rates in the short term after the RRR cut will decrease.</p><p>After the RRR cut is implemented, we need to be alert to the bond market's interpretation of the logic of \"exhausting the profits\". The main line of the bond market may transition from the fulfillment of loose monetary expectations to the fulfillment of loose credit.</p><p><b>In addition to the RRR cut, will interest rates be cut?</b></p><p>What the market is concerned about is, in addition to the RRR cut, will interest rates be cut?</p><p>On the 15th, it was reported that the self-discipline mechanism of market interest rate pricing recently held a meeting to encourage small and medium-sized banks to lower the floating ceiling of deposit interest rates by about 10 basis points (BP); This requirement should not be mandatory, but banks that make adjustments may be beneficial to their macro-prudential assessment (MPA) assessment.</p><p>According to the analysis of soochow securities, the RRR cut that can be waited for cannot be waited for.</p><p>At this stage, it is weak to cut interest rates to promote the downward trend of entity financing costs and promote new credit expansion. According to the statements of the central bank's first quarter regular meeting and the National Standing Committee, ensuring \"reasonable and sufficient liquidity\" at this stage is the leading idea of the central bank's open market operations in the near future. With the U.S. CPI exceeding 8.5% and not yet peaking, the Fed's tightening pace will further accelerate. Under this expectation, other overseas central banks also quickly followed the tightening, such as the United Kingdom and Canada. In comparison, in addition to the inverted interest rate spread between China and the United States, China's 10-year Treasury Bond spread to the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Germany is rapidly narrowing. How to maintain the stability of China's currency value and form a capital depression is the main constraint hindering China's interest rate cut.</p><p>Reducing loan interest rates and corporate financing costs by releasing the potential of LPR reform should be the main way of monetary policy at this stage. According to the guidance of the National Standing Committee on April 13 (Wednesday), \"encouraging large banks with high provision levels to reduce the provision coverage ratio in an orderly manner and use monetary policy tools such as RRR cuts in a timely manner\" is intended to release more funds to promote bank credit supply, and at the same time promote the reduction of bank capital costs. Reducing the loan interest rate and guiding banks to make profits to enterprises by compressing the LPR plus point are the main efforts of the current policy. If the central bank implements a general reduction today, it is expected that the LPR quotation will decline in April.</p><p>Lian Ping, chief economist of Zhixin Investment, analyzed that there are currently no conditions for a direct interest rate cut.</p><p>Under external complicated circumstances such as strong expectations for continued rate hike by the Federal Reserve, inverted interest rate differentials between China and the United States, and turbulent international situations, my country's direct reduction in policy interest rates may increase the pressure on capital outflows and RMB depreciation, so we need to be relatively cautious. At present, my country's monetary policy will still adhere to the \"self-oriented\" principle. However, when external demand weakens, Southeast Asian manufacturing recovers, and Western sanctions against Russia may affect my country's exports, interest rate cuts may increase the pressure on my country's internal and external balance. From the perspective of policy effects, the RRR cut is conducive to the reduction of capital costs of commercial banks, and may further promote a slight reduction of LPR, which can push down market interest rates to a certain extent. However, if interest rates are cut at the same time, the superimposed effect of the \"double reduction\" policy may be too large. It is easy to push up the leverage ratio and increase financial risks.</p><p>According to the analysis of China Merchants Fund, interest rates may be cut after the RRR cut. In the past, the National Standing Committee raised and lowered the reserve requirement ratio, and in most cases, it would be implemented, ranging from 1-2 weeks as slow as 1-3 days as fast as 2-3 days. Considering that the policy level has repeatedly blown monetary policy recently, the reserve requirement ratio will be lowered at the expiration time of the MLF on April 15. It is more appropriate and in line with expectations. After the RRR cut, interest rates may also be cut. For example, the 1-year LPR interest rate may be lowered on April 20; If the epidemic continues to impact the economy, the MLF interest rate may be lowered again in the second quarter.</p><p><b>Here's the full text of the central bank</b></p><p>In order to support the development of the real economy and promote a steady reduction in comprehensive financing costs, the People's Bank of China decided to lower the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25, 2022 (excluding financial institutions that have implemented a 5% deposit reserve ratio). In order to increase support for small and micro enterprises and \"agriculture, rural areas and farmers\", for city commercial banks that do not operate across provinces and rural commercial banks with a deposit reserve ratio higher than 5%, on the basis of lowering the deposit reserve ratio by 0.25 percentage points, an additional 0.25 percentage points will be reduced. After this reduction, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is 8.1%.</p><p>The People's Bank of China will adhere to the principle of stability, strive for progress while maintaining stability, continue to implement a prudent monetary policy, avoid flooding, take into account internal and external balance, better play the dual functions of monetary policy tools in total volume and structure, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, keep the growth rate of money supply and social financing basically match the nominal economic growth rate, stimulate market vitality, support financing in key areas and weak links, and create a suitable monetary and financial environment for high-quality development and supply-side structural reform.</p><p><b>The relevant person in charge of the People's Bank of China answers reporters' questions on lowering the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions</b></p><p><b>Q: What is the purpose of this RRR cut?</b></p><p><b>A:</b>The current liquidity is at a reasonable and sufficient level. The purpose of this RRR cut is to optimize the capital structure of financial institutions, increase the long-term stable sources of funds of financial institutions, enhance the capital allocation capabilities of financial institutions, and increase support for the real economy. The second is to guide financial institutions to actively use RRR cut funds to support industries and small, medium and micro enterprises seriously affected by the epidemic. Third, this RRR cut reduces the capital cost of financial institutions by about 6.5 billion yuan per year, and the transmission through financial institutions can promote the reduction of comprehensive social financing costs.</p><p><b>Q: How much funds will be released by this RRR cut?</b></p><p><b>A:</b>The RRR cut released a total of about 530 billion yuan in long-term funds. This RRR cut is a comprehensive RRR cut. Except for some corporate financial institutions that have implemented the 5% deposit reserve ratio, the deposit reserve ratio of other financial institutions is generally lowered by 0.25 percentage points. For city commercial banks that do not operate across provinces and rural commercial banks with a deposit reserve ratio higher than 5%, on the basis of lowering the deposit reserve ratio by 0.25 percentage points, an additional 0.25 percentage points will be reduced, which will help increase support for small and micro enterprises and \"agriculture, rural areas and farmers\".</p><p><b>Q: What are the comprehensive considerations after this RRR cut?</b></p><p><b>A:</b>The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a prudent monetary policy. First, pay close attention to changes in price trends and maintain overall price stability. The second is to pay close attention to the adjustment of monetary policies in major developed economies and take into account internal and external balances. At the same time, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, promote the reduction of comprehensive financing costs, and stabilize the macroeconomic market.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"111133","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Heavy breakout! The central bank announced: a comprehensive RRR cut, releasing 530 billion funds!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHeavy breakout! The central bank announced: a comprehensive RRR cut, releasing 530 billion funds!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中国人民银行</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-15 18:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>April 15, People's Bank of China: The People's Bank of China decided to lower the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25, 2022.</p><p>In order to support the development of the real economy and promote a steady reduction in comprehensive financing costs, the People's Bank of China decided to lower the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25, 2022 (excluding financial institutions that have implemented a 5% deposit reserve ratio). In order to increase support for small and micro enterprises and \"agriculture, rural areas and farmers\", for city commercial banks that do not operate across provinces and rural commercial banks with a deposit reserve ratio higher than 5%, on the basis of lowering the deposit reserve ratio by 0.25 percentage points, an additional 0.25 percentage points will be reduced. After this reduction, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is 8.1%.</p><p>The People's Bank of China will adhere to the principle of stability, strive for progress while maintaining stability, continue to implement a prudent monetary policy, avoid flooding, take into account internal and external balance, better play the dual functions of monetary policy tools in total volume and structure, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, keep the growth rate of money supply and social financing basically match the nominal economic growth rate, stimulate market vitality, support financing in key areas and weak links, and create a suitable monetary and financial environment for high-quality development and supply-side structural reform.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ada880b3dbaa518de26c2db245ace44\" tg-width=\"1470\" tg-height=\"812\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The impact of RRR cuts on the market</b></p><p><b>Why the RRR cut?</b></p><p>Ming Ming, co-chief economist of CITIC Securities, said that although the maturity scale of MLF is low in the next quarter, there are still liquidity gaps caused by the peak tax period, the centralized issuance of government bonds, and the large maturity scale of interbank certificates of deposit, which may be used as the trigger of RRR cut. Secondly, from the perspective of expanding the scale of new loans, the current bank excess reserve ratio is declining again. To further guide financial institutions to increase credit supply and reduce loan interest rates, on the one hand, it is necessary to make up for the medium and long-term funding gap, and on the other hand, it is necessary to reduce the debt cost.</p><p>Li Chao, chief economist of Zheshang Securities, believes that the epidemic has aggravated the uncertainty of economic fundamentals and increased the downward pressure on the economy. At present, the monetary policy still takes steady growth as its primary goal, and the focus is on credit. Credit is the most effective means to ease credit, and it is an effective way to promote enterprises to expand capital expenditure and prevent financial idling.</p><p>Huang Wentao, chief economist of CITIC Securities, analyzed that the downward pressure on the economy has increased: First, the impact of the pulse epidemic has had a significant impact on domestic and foreign demand and confidence. At present, the domestic sporadic epidemic still has a significant impact on my country's economy, and various issues such as consumption, real estate, infrastructure, and income are facing greater pressure. Especially when the economic data of the first quarter is about to be released, we judge that the data of the first quarter may be lower than market expectations. Second, the momentum of exports may fall back, Baidu's momentum of economic recovery has weakened, the economic high point has passed, there are unfavorable factors for overseas recovery, and durable goods and other product types that are in line with my country's exports are also slightly overdrawn in the early stage. Third, domestic real estate and its industrial chain are facing liquidity pressure and default impact, and the growth rate of the entire industrial chain is declining rapidly.</p><p><b>The implementation of the RRR cut will help companies bail out during the epidemic, boost the real economy, and help stabilize stocks and bonds.</b></p><p>China Merchants Fund commented that the 4.13 National Standing Committee pointed out that \"large banks with high provision levels are encouraged to reduce the provision coverage ratio in an orderly manner\", and in terms of monetary policy, it emphasized \"further increasing financial support for the real economy, especially industries severely affected by the epidemic. and support for small, medium and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households.\"</p><p>Under the impact of the epidemic, banks have reduced the provision coverage ratio, which will help increase the support of credit funds to entities; At the same time, we will increase support for industries and small and micro enterprises seriously affected by the epidemic, which has obvious characteristics of helping enterprises bail out during the epidemic, and will also help to broaden credit.</p><p>However, it should be noted that since the current financing demand of the real economy is still sluggish and the epidemic has suppressed the economic vitality, in the case of loose liquidity, it is necessary to be alert to idling funds and enterprises \"borrowing new to repay old\", which may weaken the actual pulling effect of monetary easing on the real economy to a certain extent.</p><p>For the capital market, after previous RRR cuts, the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 have higher short-term winning rates, while the medium and long-term winning rates have declined but the increase has expanded; The bond market can better reflect the expectation of RRR cut in advance, and interest rates are mixed after the RRR cut is implemented. Therefore, given that the market expectation of this RRR cut is relatively sufficient, it is expected that the RRR cut will be beneficial to the stock market in the short term, but to the bond market to a limited extent.</p><p><b>Xinhua Fund's evaluation of RRR cut: It will be beneficial to the market to a certain extent, and the low valuation direction that benefits from steady growth in the short term is expected to continue to dominate</b></p><p>Zhang Lin, director of the research department and fund manager of Xinhua Fund, said that the core purpose of the RRR cut is to extend credit support to industries affected by the epidemic and small, medium and micro enterprises, reduce their financing costs, and thereby stabilize employment. This shows the determination and attitude of the regulatory authorities to stabilize the economy, which is beneficial to the market and will change the rhythm of market operation. However, considering the impact of economic fundamentals on the market, this will not change the overall direction of market operation.</p><p>We believe that since the end of February, the spread of domestic epidemics and overseas geopolitical conflicts have had a significant impact on stable growth and corporate profit distribution patterns. The short-term corporate profit distribution pattern will also deteriorate. The economy will face pressure to break through 5 in the first quarter. Looking forward, fiscal efforts and social financing recovery are relatively certain, and real estate is also expected to recover to the 2019 level. The main variable is that virus mutation has increasingly higher requirements for blockades, which will have a more severe impact on the economy. Against the background that consumption and infrastructure were restricted by the epidemic in the second and third quarters, and real estate investment was difficult to recover quickly, the government lacked an obvious \"grasp\" to stabilize growth. Therefore, even if the unemployment rate shows an inflection point after the epidemic, the speed of employment recovery may still be slower than expected. Once it is difficult for the government to achieve the employment target of 5.5% within the year, the central bank may cut interest rates through MLF to support the economy and promote employment, and temporarily shelve the exchange rate and capital outflow risks caused by the inversion of Sino-US interest rate spreads. As the policy side is actively responding to the greater uncertainties and challenges faced by the economic operation, the low valuation direction that benefits from steady growth in the short term is expected to continue to dominate, while the overweight opportunities in the growth direction still need to wait for the effective control of the epidemic and the economic stabilization again.</p><p><b>The impact of the RRR cut on the bond market is relatively limited, and the equity market may face a structural rebound in the future</b></p><p>Zou Deli, general manager of the fixed income investment department of Great Wall Fund, said that at present, with the weak performance of the stock market and the continued sluggish real estate sales, especially the local outbreak of epidemics in many places, economic growth is under greater pressure. Under the background of steady growth and wide credit, credit supply further increased from March to April. At this time, it is a more appropriate time window to provide liquidity to support credit supply through RRR cuts.</p><p>He pointed out that from the historical situation, the RRR cut operation will not affect the central bank's decision on whether to cut interest rates. This week's National Standing Committee's formulation of \"reducing comprehensive financing costs\" requires more interest rate cuts to be realized, and the epidemic has impacted economic growth expectations. We judge that it is possible to further reduce MLF and LPR interest rates. The better time window for interest rate cuts is in the second quarter, and April may be a better choice when the Fed's rate hike window is empty.</p><p>Under the current scenario where monetary easing expectations are relatively sufficient, the impact of the RRR cut on the bond market is relatively limited. The National Standing Committee mentioned that the ten-year Treasury Bond will only fall by about 2BP after the RRR cut. The key lies in whether the policy interest rate is lowered. If the MLF interest rate is lowered, the bond market will usher in major benefits, and the bond interest rate will further decline. Overall, this year, the bond market was bullish in the first half of the year due to the pressure on economic growth brought by the spread of the epidemic, and may be bearish in the second half of the year due to stimulating economic recovery. In terms of the equity market, after the overall surge in the previous two years, it may be necessary to lower the expectation of investment returns for the whole year, but it should be at the bottom of the policy and the bottom of the market at present, and there may be a structural rebound in the future.</p><p><b>Stock Market Impact</b></p><p>According to the Industrial Securities strategy, the RRR cut is expected to boost short-term market sentiment. One week after the previous RRR cuts, the market has a high probability of rising, and the GEM Index and CSI 300 have a rising probability of 60%; Judging from the median rise and fall, the GEM index performed better than the CSI 300 one week after the RRR cut, and the growth and consumption in style were better than the cycle and finance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38a8ae8b1a97f0339dd07a63ec5794d8\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"782\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Bond market impact</b></p><p>According to the fixed income team of GF Securities, the impact on the bond market: liquidity is difficult to be loosened, and it is expected that it may turn to loose credit</p><p>The impact of RRR cuts on interest rates is mainly at two levels: First, the liquidity level. The impact of the RRR cut on the bond market through liquidity ultimately depends on the level at which the overnight funding interest rate will stabilize after the RRR cut, whether it is 1.5%, 1.8% or 2.0%. The interest rate of funds directly affects the interest rate of the bond market by leveraging the cost of funds.</p><p>The second is the expected level. After policies such as RRR cuts or interest rate cuts are implemented, bond market investors pay attention to whether there will be interest rate cuts in the future, which often determines the room for long-term interest rates to decline. We expect that under the external constraints of the Federal Reserve's rapid tightening of monetary policy, in order to take into account the external balance, the possibility of lowering MLF and reverse repurchase rates in the short term after the RRR cut will decrease.</p><p>After the RRR cut is implemented, we need to be alert to the bond market's interpretation of the logic of \"exhausting the profits\". The main line of the bond market may transition from the fulfillment of loose monetary expectations to the fulfillment of loose credit.</p><p><b>In addition to the RRR cut, will interest rates be cut?</b></p><p>What the market is concerned about is, in addition to the RRR cut, will interest rates be cut?</p><p>On the 15th, it was reported that the self-discipline mechanism of market interest rate pricing recently held a meeting to encourage small and medium-sized banks to lower the floating ceiling of deposit interest rates by about 10 basis points (BP); This requirement should not be mandatory, but banks that make adjustments may be beneficial to their macro-prudential assessment (MPA) assessment.</p><p>According to the analysis of soochow securities, the RRR cut that can be waited for cannot be waited for.</p><p>At this stage, it is weak to cut interest rates to promote the downward trend of entity financing costs and promote new credit expansion. According to the statements of the central bank's first quarter regular meeting and the National Standing Committee, ensuring \"reasonable and sufficient liquidity\" at this stage is the leading idea of the central bank's open market operations in the near future. With the U.S. CPI exceeding 8.5% and not yet peaking, the Fed's tightening pace will further accelerate. Under this expectation, other overseas central banks also quickly followed the tightening, such as the United Kingdom and Canada. In comparison, in addition to the inverted interest rate spread between China and the United States, China's 10-year Treasury Bond spread to the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Germany is rapidly narrowing. How to maintain the stability of China's currency value and form a capital depression is the main constraint hindering China's interest rate cut.</p><p>Reducing loan interest rates and corporate financing costs by releasing the potential of LPR reform should be the main way of monetary policy at this stage. According to the guidance of the National Standing Committee on April 13 (Wednesday), \"encouraging large banks with high provision levels to reduce the provision coverage ratio in an orderly manner and use monetary policy tools such as RRR cuts in a timely manner\" is intended to release more funds to promote bank credit supply, and at the same time promote the reduction of bank capital costs. Reducing the loan interest rate and guiding banks to make profits to enterprises by compressing the LPR plus point are the main efforts of the current policy. If the central bank implements a general reduction today, it is expected that the LPR quotation will decline in April.</p><p>Lian Ping, chief economist of Zhixin Investment, analyzed that there are currently no conditions for a direct interest rate cut.</p><p>Under external complicated circumstances such as strong expectations for continued rate hike by the Federal Reserve, inverted interest rate differentials between China and the United States, and turbulent international situations, my country's direct reduction in policy interest rates may increase the pressure on capital outflows and RMB depreciation, so we need to be relatively cautious. At present, my country's monetary policy will still adhere to the \"self-oriented\" principle. However, when external demand weakens, Southeast Asian manufacturing recovers, and Western sanctions against Russia may affect my country's exports, interest rate cuts may increase the pressure on my country's internal and external balance. From the perspective of policy effects, the RRR cut is conducive to the reduction of capital costs of commercial banks, and may further promote a slight reduction of LPR, which can push down market interest rates to a certain extent. However, if interest rates are cut at the same time, the superimposed effect of the \"double reduction\" policy may be too large. It is easy to push up the leverage ratio and increase financial risks.</p><p>According to the analysis of China Merchants Fund, interest rates may be cut after the RRR cut. In the past, the National Standing Committee raised and lowered the reserve requirement ratio, and in most cases, it would be implemented, ranging from 1-2 weeks as slow as 1-3 days as fast as 2-3 days. Considering that the policy level has repeatedly blown monetary policy recently, the reserve requirement ratio will be lowered at the expiration time of the MLF on April 15. It is more appropriate and in line with expectations. After the RRR cut, interest rates may also be cut. For example, the 1-year LPR interest rate may be lowered on April 20; If the epidemic continues to impact the economy, the MLF interest rate may be lowered again in the second quarter.</p><p><b>Here's the full text of the central bank</b></p><p>In order to support the development of the real economy and promote a steady reduction in comprehensive financing costs, the People's Bank of China decided to lower the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25, 2022 (excluding financial institutions that have implemented a 5% deposit reserve ratio). In order to increase support for small and micro enterprises and \"agriculture, rural areas and farmers\", for city commercial banks that do not operate across provinces and rural commercial banks with a deposit reserve ratio higher than 5%, on the basis of lowering the deposit reserve ratio by 0.25 percentage points, an additional 0.25 percentage points will be reduced. After this reduction, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is 8.1%.</p><p>The People's Bank of China will adhere to the principle of stability, strive for progress while maintaining stability, continue to implement a prudent monetary policy, avoid flooding, take into account internal and external balance, better play the dual functions of monetary policy tools in total volume and structure, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, keep the growth rate of money supply and social financing basically match the nominal economic growth rate, stimulate market vitality, support financing in key areas and weak links, and create a suitable monetary and financial environment for high-quality development and supply-side structural reform.</p><p><b>The relevant person in charge of the People's Bank of China answers reporters' questions on lowering the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions</b></p><p><b>Q: What is the purpose of this RRR cut?</b></p><p><b>A:</b>The current liquidity is at a reasonable and sufficient level. The purpose of this RRR cut is to optimize the capital structure of financial institutions, increase the long-term stable sources of funds of financial institutions, enhance the capital allocation capabilities of financial institutions, and increase support for the real economy. The second is to guide financial institutions to actively use RRR cut funds to support industries and small, medium and micro enterprises seriously affected by the epidemic. Third, this RRR cut reduces the capital cost of financial institutions by about 6.5 billion yuan per year, and the transmission through financial institutions can promote the reduction of comprehensive social financing costs.</p><p><b>Q: How much funds will be released by this RRR cut?</b></p><p><b>A:</b>The RRR cut released a total of about 530 billion yuan in long-term funds. This RRR cut is a comprehensive RRR cut. Except for some corporate financial institutions that have implemented the 5% deposit reserve ratio, the deposit reserve ratio of other financial institutions is generally lowered by 0.25 percentage points. For city commercial banks that do not operate across provinces and rural commercial banks with a deposit reserve ratio higher than 5%, on the basis of lowering the deposit reserve ratio by 0.25 percentage points, an additional 0.25 percentage points will be reduced, which will help increase support for small and micro enterprises and \"agriculture, rural areas and farmers\".</p><p><b>Q: What are the comprehensive considerations after this RRR cut?</b></p><p><b>A:</b>The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a prudent monetary policy. First, pay close attention to changes in price trends and maintain overall price stability. The second is to pay close attention to the adjustment of monetary policies in major developed economies and take into account internal and external balances. At the same time, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, promote the reduction of comprehensive financing costs, and stabilize the macroeconomic market.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.pbc.gov.cn/goutongjiaoliu/113456/113469/4531933/index.html\">中国人民银行</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4f6756652f6edd7784aff06d489c678","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://www.pbc.gov.cn/goutongjiaoliu/113456/113469/4531933/index.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144854803","content_text":"4月15日，中国人民银行：中国人民银行决定于2022年4月25日下调金融机构存款准备金率0.25个百分点。为支持实体经济发展，促进综合融资成本稳中有降，中国人民银行决定于2022年4月25日下调金融机构存款准备金率0.25个百分点（不含已执行5%存款准备金率的金融机构）。为加大对小微企业和“三农”的支持力度，对没有跨省经营的城商行和存款准备金率高于5%的农商行，在下调存款准备金率0.25个百分点的基础上，再额外多降0.25个百分点。本次下调后，金融机构加权平均存款准备金率为8.1%。中国人民银行将坚持稳字当头，稳中求进，继续实施稳健的货币政策，不搞大水漫灌，兼顾内外平衡，更好发挥货币政策工具的总量和结构双重功能，保持流动性合理充裕，保持货币供应量和社会融资规模增速同名义经济增速基本匹配，激发市场活力，支持重点领域和薄弱环节融资，为高质量发展和供给侧结构性改革营造适宜的货币金融环境。降准对市场的影响为何降准？中信证券联席首席经济学家明明称，虽然未来一个季度MLF到期规模低，但是仍然存在税期高峰、政府债券集中发行、同业存单到期规模大等导致的流动性缺口，这些可能作为降准的触发因素。其次，从扩大新增贷款规模的角度来看，当前银行超储率再次下行，要进一步引导金融机构加大信贷投放和降低贷款利率，一方面需要弥补中长期资金缺口，另一方面需要降低负债成本。浙商证券首席经济学家李超认为，疫情加剧经济基本面的不确定性，经济下行压力加大，当前货币政策仍以稳增长为首要目标，发力重点是信贷，信贷是宽信用最有效手段，是推进企业扩大资本开支、防止金融空转的有效途径。中信建投证券首席经济学家黄文涛分析称，经济下行压力加大：一是脉冲式疫情的冲击对国内外需求和信心产生明显冲击。目前来看，国内散发式的疫情对于我国经济仍有明显影响，消费、地产、基建、收入等各个问题都面临较大压力。特别是在一季度经济数据即将公布的情况下，我们判断一季度数据可能低于市场预期。二是出口的动能可能回落，经济复苏的百度动能减弱，经济高点已过，海外复苏存在不利因素，且耐用品等符合我国出口的产品类型前期也略有透支。三是国内的房地产及其产业链面临流动性压力和违约冲击，全产业链增速快速下滑。降准落地有助于疫情期间助企纾困，提振实体经济，有利于股债企稳。招商基金点评称，4.13国常会指出，“鼓励拨备水平较高的大型银行有序降低拨备覆盖率”，并在货币政策方面强调“进一步加大金融对实体经济特别是受疫情严重影响行业和中小微企业、个体工商户的支持力度”。在疫情冲击之下，银行降低拨备覆盖率，有助于提高信贷资金对实体支持力度；同时对受疫情影响严重的行业和小微企业加大支持，具备明显的疫情助企纾困特征，也有助于宽信用。但需要注意的是，由于当前实体经济融资需求仍低迷、疫情对经济活力进行压制，在流动性宽松情况下，需要警惕资金空转和企业“借新还旧”，这可能一定程度上削弱货币宽松对实体经济的实际拉动效果。对于资本市场，历次降准后，上证综指和沪深300短期胜率较高，中长期胜率下滑但涨幅扩大；债市更能提前反映降准预期，降准落地后利率涨跌不一。因此，鉴于此次降准市场预期已经较为充分，预计降准对股票市场短期利好，对债市利好程度有限。新华基金评降准：对市场的有一定利好，短期受益稳增长的低估值方向预计将继续占优新华基金研究部总监、基金经理张霖表示，降准的核心目的是为了给疫情影响行业和中小微企业宽信用支持，降低其融资成本，从而稳定就业，这表明了监管层稳定经济的决心与态度，对市场的有一定利好，会改变市场运行节奏，但考虑到经济基本面对市场的影响，这不会改变市场总体运行方向。我们认为，2月末以来国内疫情散发和海外地缘政治冲突对于稳增长和企业利润分配格局都造成明显冲击，1-2月经济企稳的势头在3月没能延续，随着原油等资源品价格再次大幅上涨，短期企业利润分配格局也将恶化，一季度经济面临破5压力，往后看，财政发力和社融回升都较为确定，地产也有望向19年水平修复，变数主要在于病毒变异对封锁要求越来越高，对经济冲击更加剧烈，上述宏观层面变化都对市场形成压制。在二、三季度消费、基建受疫情制约，地产投资又难以快速复苏的背景下，政府稳增长缺少明显“抓手”。因此即使疫情过后，失业率显现拐点，就业恢复的速度仍有可能不及预期。而一旦年内政府达成5.5%的就业目标存在困难，央行可能通过MLF降息托底经济、促进就业，暂时搁置中美利差倒挂带来的汇率及资本外流风险。由于政策面正在积极应对经济运行面临的更大不确定性和挑战，短期受益稳增长的低估值方向预计将继续占优，而成长方向的超配机会还需等待疫情有效控制和经济再次企稳。降准对于债券市场影响相对有限 未来权益市场可能迎结构性反弹行情长城基金固定收益投资部总经理邹德立表示，当前在股票市场表现疲软、地产销售持续低迷，特别是多地疫情局部爆发的情况下，经济增长遭遇较大压力。在稳增长、宽信用的背景下，3-4月份信贷投放进一步提高，此时通过降准投放流动性支持信贷投放，是比较合适的时间窗口。他指出，从历史情况来看，降准操作不会影响央行对于是否降息的决策。而本周国常会关于“降低综合融资成本”的提法更多需要降息操作才能够实现，而且疫情冲击经济增长预期，我们判断还会有可能进一步调降MLF和LPR利率。降息比较好的时间窗口在二季度，而四月份处在美联储加息空窗期或许是更好的选择。在当前货币宽松预期比较充分的情景下，降准对于债券市场影响相对有限，国常会提到降准后十年期国债仅下行2BP左右，关键在于政策利率是否调降。如果MLF利率调降，则债券市场迎来重大利好，债券利率将进一步下行。今年总体上，债券市场上半年因为疫情扩散带来经济增长压力而看涨，下半年可能因为刺激经济复苏而看跌。权益市场方面，经过前两年总体上的大涨后，或许应当降低对全年投资回报的期待值，但目前应处于政策底和市场底的阶段，未来有可能迎来结构性反弹行情。股市影响据兴证策略，降准落地有望提振短期市场情绪，历次降准落地后一周市场上涨概率较高，创业板指与沪深300上涨概率均达六成；而从涨跌幅中位数看，降准落地后一周创业板指表现优于沪深300，风格上成长和消费优于周期和金融。债市影响据广发证券固收团队，对债市影响：流动性难更松，预期或转向宽信用降准对利率的影响，主要是两个层面：一是流动性层面。降准通过流动性对债市生的影响，最终要看降准后，隔夜资金利率稳定在什么水平，是1.5%、1.8%还是2.0%。资金利率通过杠杆资金成本，直接对债市利率产生影响。二是预期层面。降准或降息等政策落地后，债市投资者关注后续是否还有降息，这往往决定长端利率下行的空间。我们预计在美联储快速收紧货币政策的外部约束下，为了兼顾外部平衡，降准之后短期内下调MLF和逆回购利率的可能性有所下降。待降准落地之后，需要警惕债市演绎“利多出尽”的逻辑，债市的主线可能从宽货币预期兑现向宽信用落地过渡。除了降准，还会降息吗？市场关心的是，除了降准，还会降息吗？15日，有报道称，近日市场利率定价自律机制召开会议，鼓励中小银行存款利率浮动上限下调10个基点(BP)左右；这一要求应并非强制，但做出调整的银行或将对其宏观审慎评估(MPA)考核有利。东吴证券分析称，等得来的降准等不来的降息。现阶段通过降息促进实体融资成本的下行、推动新增信贷扩张的可能性较弱。根据央行一季度例会和国常会的表述，现阶段保证“流动性合理充裕”是近期央行公开市场操作的主导思想。在美国CPI突破8.5%且尚未见顶的情况下，美联储紧缩步伐将进一步加快。在这一预期下，海外其他央行也快速跟随紧缩，如英国、加拿大。比较下，除中美利差倒挂外，中国对欧盟、英国、德国的10年期国债利差均在迅速缩窄。如何维护我国币值稳定、形成资金洼地是阻碍我国降息的主要掣肘。通过释放LPR改革潜力的方法降低贷款利率和企业融资成本，应是现阶段货币政策的主要发力方式。根据4月13日（周三）国常会的指导，“鼓励拨备水平较高的大型银行有序降低拨备覆盖率，适时运用降准等货币政策工具”意在释放更多资金促进银行信贷投放，同时促进银行资金成本的降低。通过压缩LPR加点部分的方式降低贷款利率、引导银行向企业让利是当前政策的主要发力点。若今日央行实施普降，预计4月LPR报价将出现下行。植信投资首席经济学家连平分析称，当前不具备直接降息的条件。在美联储持续加息预期强烈、中美利差出现倒挂、国际局势动荡等外部复杂情况下，我国直接下调政策利率可能会加大资本流出与人民币贬值压力，需要相对谨慎。当前我国货币政策仍将坚持“以我为主”，但在外需减弱、东南亚制造业恢复、西方对俄制裁等可能波及我国出口之时，降息可能会加重我国内外部平衡的压力。从政策效果来看，降准利于商业银行资金成本下降，可能会进一步推动LPR小幅下调，一定程度上能够推动市场利率下行，但如同时降息，“双降”的政策叠加效果可能会过大，容易推升杠杆率，增大金融风险。招商基金分析称，降准后可能再降息。以往国常会提降准，大部分情况下会落实，慢则 1-2 周，快则 2-3 天，考虑近期政策层多次吹风喊话货币政策，4月15日MLF到期时点降准较为合适，符合预期。降准后，也可能进行降息，如4月20日1年期LPR利率可能会下调；若疫情持续冲击经济，二季度也可能再降MLF利率。以下是央行全文为支持实体经济发展，促进综合融资成本稳中有降，中国人民银行决定于2022年4月25日下调金融机构存款准备金率0.25个百分点（不含已执行5%存款准备金率的金融机构）。为加大对小微企业和“三农”的支持力度，对没有跨省经营的城商行和存款准备金率高于5%的农商行，在下调存款准备金率0.25个百分点的基础上，再额外多降0.25个百分点。本次下调后，金融机构加权平均存款准备金率为8.1%。中国人民银行将坚持稳字当头，稳中求进，继续实施稳健的货币政策，不搞大水漫灌，兼顾内外平衡，更好发挥货币政策工具的总量和结构双重功能，保持流动性合理充裕，保持货币供应量和社会融资规模增速同名义经济增速基本匹配，激发市场活力，支持重点领域和薄弱环节融资，为高质量发展和供给侧结构性改革营造适宜的货币金融环境。中国人民银行有关负责人就下调金融机构存款准备金率答记者问问：此次降准的目的是什么？答：当前流动性已处于合理充裕水平。此次降准的目的，一是优化金融机构资金结构，增加金融机构长期稳定资金来源，增强金融机构资金配置能力，加大对实体经济的支持力度。二是引导金融机构积极运用降准资金支持受疫情严重影响行业和中小微企业。三是此次降准降低金融机构资金成本每年约65亿元，通过金融机构传导可促进降低社会综合融资成本。问：此次降准释放多少资金？答：此次降准共计释放长期资金约5300亿元。此次降准为全面降准，除已执行5%存款准备金率的部分法人金融机构外，对其他金融机构普遍下调存款准备金率0.25个百分点。对没有跨省经营的城商行和存款准备金率高于5%的农商行，在下调存款准备金率0.25个百分点的基础上，再额外多降0.25个百分点，有利于加大对小微企业和“三农”的支持力度。问：此次降准后有什么综合考虑？答：人民银行将继续实施稳健货币政策。一是密切关注物价走势变化，保持物价总体稳定。二是密切关注主要发达经济体货币政策调整，兼顾内外平衡。同时，保持流动性合理充裕，促进降低综合融资成本，稳定宏观经济大盘。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":756,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9035937446,"gmtCreate":1647482878899,"gmtModify":1676534236029,"author":{"id":"4094690095246560","authorId":"4094690095246560","name":"jiakit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf1920b6f979eee904cab1954836930d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094690095246560","idStr":"4094690095246560"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Read","listText":"Read","text":"Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9035937446","repostId":"2220799932","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9095853210,"gmtCreate":1644884836583,"gmtModify":1676533971483,"author":{"id":"4094690095246560","authorId":"4094690095246560","name":"jiakit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf1920b6f979eee904cab1954836930d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094690095246560","idStr":"4094690095246560"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>good","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a 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11:51","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"It doubled in three days amid pessimism! What happened to SenseTime?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2200717854","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：申万宏源刘洋团队认为，虽然行业情况并没有发生根本变化，但全球科技和资本市场格局变了。以后，科创板/港股/北交所将承担更多科技力量。2022年1月4日，港股商汤继续逆市大涨，上市之后四连涨。截至发","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: Shenwan Hongyuan Liu Yang's team believes that although the industry situation has not fundamentally changed, the global technology and capital market structure has changed. In the future, the Science and Technology Innovation Board/Hong Kong Stocks/Beijing Stock Exchange will assume more technological strength. On January 4, 2022, the Hong Kong stock SenseTime continued to buck the market trend and rose sharply, rising for four consecutive days after listing. As of press time, SenseTime rose by 10.97%, continuing the previous miracle of doubling the stock price in three days. At the same time, SenseTime's excellent performance has also inspired the \"AI brothers\" of A shares.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688088\">ArcSoft Technology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002415\">Hikvision</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002230\">IFlytek</a>, Dahua shares and other \"AI concept stocks\" opened higher in early trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab04b1a49051bec7b6d05ee49038e765\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, SenseTime, which has superimposed the concept of metaverse and the name of \"the first AI stock\", has a bumpy listing process behind its glamorous stock price. Last month, SenseTime's listing plan was once stranded due to many external unfavorable news.</p><p>Fortunately, SenseTime withstood the pressure. By December 20, it had quickly completed a series of complicated procedures, readjusted the share structure, and published the \"Prospectus\" again, announcing its listing on December 30, and the issuance scale and The pricing range remains unchanged.</p><p><b>At this time, some investors have noticed that the list of cornerstone investors of SenseTime has undergone major changes.</b>Foreign cornerstone investors such as Pleiad, WT, Focustar Capital, Focustar Fund and Hel Ved have exited one after another.</p><p><b>Since then, there have been a lot of doubts.</b></p><p><b>For fundamentals,</b>After reading the prospectus, some investors found that the proportion of single customers of SenseTime was too high and the continuity of existing customers was not high, questioning the sustainability and stability of SenseTime's revenue; Some investors also believe that SenseTime's customized business accounts for too high a proportion, and they are doubtful about the cost control ability of SenseTime's business. They are worried that scale expansion will not be able to reduce costs, resulting in \"operating leverage\" becoming \"operating negative leverage\", making the company unable to make a profit.</p><p><b>In terms of stock price,</b>Some investors worry that external unfavorable factors will lead to the loss of a large number of foreign investors, and at the same time, business growth prospects will be affected, resulting in a strong willingness of current cornerstone investors to launch after the lock-up period, resulting in long-term instability of stock prices.</p><p>Furthermore,<b>In terms of liquidity,</b>There are also investors who worry that because cornerstone investors account for the majority of the share, although the company's stock price will have a strong trend in the short term, its long-term liquidity will be worrying.</p><p>However, after listing, SenseTime went out of a trend that exceeded the expectations of most investors. So, why can SenseTime's stock price be so powerful in the midst of pessimism?</p><p>In this regard,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Liu Yang's team believes that,<b>The current trend of SenseTime exceeding the expectations of many investors is inseparable from the fact that investors are more concerned about whether the stock is related to the AI industry and whether it is related to the hot spots in metaverse.</b>The team mentioned:</p><p>According to SenseTime's prospectus, it is pointed out that \"we have built multi-layer infrastructure to empower IoT devices and drive the Metaverse (Metaverse) to improve the end-user experience.\" \"In 2016,..., over the years, it has been more than 450 million units<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Empowered by mobile phones and more than 200 mobile applications, and has become one of the largest metaverse empowerment platforms \") In the past year, review's AI company has gone from suffering setbacks in listing to being able to go public at a loss.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06806\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Liu Yang's team concluded that although the industry situation has not fundamentally changed,<b>But the global technology and capital market landscape has changed. In the future, the Science and Technology Innovation Board/Hong Kong Stocks/Beijing Stock Exchange will assume more technological strength.</b></p><p>At the same time, the team believes that SenseTime's current trend, which exceeds the expectations of many investors, can bring the following two inspirations to investors.</p><p><h2>1. Three opportunities to accelerate AI implementation in 2022</h2>The implementation of the fragmented scenario of AI has led leading companies to divide into two paths, with the \"lower cost\" represented by Hikvision Dahua and the \"larger model\" represented by SenseTime and Kuang. Specifically,<b>AI companies such as SenseTime and Megvii choose to develop their own deep learning training platforms.</b>A \"big device\" base has been built-that is, a completely self-developed AI infrastructure including computing power, algorithms, platforms and underlying training reasoning frameworks.</p><p>First of all, after analyzing these two AI paths, Shenwan Hongyuan Liu Yang's team believes that:</p><p><ul><li><b>Smart city/security/smart manufacturing link</b>, will still be Hikvision,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002236\">Dahua Shares</a>The advantageous industries of the path;</li><li><b>Mobile phones, medical care and other areas that may be tried by SenseTime and Megvii Technology's large models</b>, the current AI penetration needs to be improved<b>Logistics, automotive industry</b>Then still<b>Need more time to verify.</b></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b456572de0838c9f0122212c3939e65\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Regarding the prospects of the artificial intelligence industry in 2022, Shenwan Hongyuan Liu Yang's team believes that the AI industry will usher in triple opportunities for accelerated implementation:<b>1) Mature application scenarios emerge; 2) Intensive catalysis of the 14th Five-Year Plan policy; 3) The wave of AI unicorn listings has begun.</b></p><p><b>1) Opportunity 1: Mature application scenarios emerge</b></p><p>Shenwan Hongyuan Liu Yang's team believes that the current intelligent manufacturing, smart warehousing and logistics, smart finance,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000816\">Smart agriculture</a>, smart medical care, smart home, etc.<b>Mature AI application scenarios are emerging</b>, leading AI companies have a large number of benchmark cases.</p><p>At the same time, from the analysis of ROI (return on investment), the team believes that,<b>The high returns of the AI industry can accelerate the popularization of the AI industry:</b></p><p>Based on the AI cases provided by Hikvision's official official account, we calculate that the ROI of customers after purchase is mostly 50%-150%, and the investment payback period is only 1-2 years; According to iResearch's research results, 50% of enterprise AI projects have a return period of 1 to 3 years, and 36% of enterprise AI projects have a return period of 0.5 to 1 year. High ROI catalyzes the accelerated popularization of AI empowerment.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/595cd2667929873bf94d0fddcd6773dd\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) Opportunity 2: Intensive catalysis of 14th Five-Year Plan policies</b></p><p>Recently, the official website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has intensively published the \"14th Five-Year Plan\" development plan for intelligent and information-related industries, which puts forward multi-level development goals for the artificial intelligence industry. Shen Hongyuan Liu Yang's team believes that:</p><p><ul><li><b>On the To G side,</b>The 14th Five-Year Plan contains a large number of requirements to improve the government's digital governance capabilities, which are expected to be accelerated in 2022;</li><li>AI is also an implementation<b>Dual carbon targets</b>Important means.</li></ul>The policies related to artificial intelligence are sorted out as shown in the following table:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81149bb8dcb82f70ca88ac49a3b5557c\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"839\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3) Opportunity 3: The wave of AI unicorn listings begins</b></p><p>After SenseTime, AI companies such as Yuncong Technology, Megvii Technology, Yuntian Lifei, and Geling Shentong plan to complete their listing on the Science and Technology Innovation Board in 2022; AI cutting-edge companies such as 4Paradigm and Innovation Qizhi have also submitted prospectuses to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to actively promote the listing process. In this context, Shenwan Hongyuan Liu Yang's team expects that,<b>The wave of AI unicorn listings is expected to bring higher attention and valuation anchors to the AI sector.</b></p><p>In addition, the team believes that:</p><p>In the post-demographic dividend era, AI is expected to become a high-prosperity track for more than ten years; The conditions for explosive growth in demand are already in place, and the bottleneck at this stage may lie on the supply side; The industry will gain triple opportunities such as a large number of demonstration effects of successful cases of AI empowerment, a large number of policy catalysis during the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the wave of AI unicorn listings; Focus on the landing capabilities of AI companies.<h2>2. Hong Kong stock TMT, re-evaluation of cognition</h2>Shen Hongyuan Liu Yang's team believes that,<b>With changes in the global technology and capital market structure, Hong Kong stocks may be undervalued. In the future, Hong Kong stocks are expected to become a new global capitalization harbor for technology</b>。</p><p>The team concluded:</p><p>1) Investors believe that the different investor compositions and valuation systems in the Hong Kong market/mainland China market are factors that hinder the performance of Hong Kong stock technology. 2) Hard technology has been listed on the A-share market and is world-class. Soft technology once favored overseas listings because its growth was often non-linear. 3) It is expected that in the future, if the business model belongs to intangible assets to create value, as the overseas listing environment changes, more Hong Kong stock IPOs will be chosen. 4) TMT's \"soft and hard technology\" has industrial chain linkage and transmission, and the maturity of \"hard technology\" leads to a more mature \"soft technology\" industry. From a domestic perspective: Hong Kong stocks that are easy to invest in are easier than those in Europe and the United States. Therefore, we expect that the valuation system for domestic investors to invest in \"soft technology\" in Hong Kong stocks will be different from before (there were mostly European and American investors before, but Hong Kong stocks were not their best choice). 5) The current static PS of SenseTime in 2020 is about 61 times, which is higher than the Hang Seng Technology Index/A-share AI. It has a demonstration effect, and this \"demonstration effect\" may have a far-reaching impact.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/034269e5bc2020ed77b44e86f6ff91c9\" tg-width=\"761\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It doubled in three days amid pessimism! 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What happened to SenseTime?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-04 11:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: Shenwan Hongyuan Liu Yang's team believes that although the industry situation has not fundamentally changed, the global technology and capital market structure has changed. In the future, the Science and Technology Innovation Board/Hong Kong Stocks/Beijing Stock Exchange will assume more technological strength. On January 4, 2022, the Hong Kong stock SenseTime continued to buck the market trend and rose sharply, rising for four consecutive days after listing. As of press time, SenseTime rose by 10.97%, continuing the previous miracle of doubling the stock price in three days. At the same time, SenseTime's excellent performance has also inspired the \"AI brothers\" of A shares.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688088\">ArcSoft Technology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002415\">Hikvision</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002230\">IFlytek</a>, Dahua shares and other \"AI concept stocks\" opened higher in early trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab04b1a49051bec7b6d05ee49038e765\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, SenseTime, which has superimposed the concept of metaverse and the name of \"the first AI stock\", has a bumpy listing process behind its glamorous stock price. Last month, SenseTime's listing plan was once stranded due to many external unfavorable news.</p><p>Fortunately, SenseTime withstood the pressure. By December 20, it had quickly completed a series of complicated procedures, readjusted the share structure, and published the \"Prospectus\" again, announcing its listing on December 30, and the issuance scale and The pricing range remains unchanged.</p><p><b>At this time, some investors have noticed that the list of cornerstone investors of SenseTime has undergone major changes.</b>Foreign cornerstone investors such as Pleiad, WT, Focustar Capital, Focustar Fund and Hel Ved have exited one after another.</p><p><b>Since then, there have been a lot of doubts.</b></p><p><b>For fundamentals,</b>After reading the prospectus, some investors found that the proportion of single customers of SenseTime was too high and the continuity of existing customers was not high, questioning the sustainability and stability of SenseTime's revenue; Some investors also believe that SenseTime's customized business accounts for too high a proportion, and they are doubtful about the cost control ability of SenseTime's business. They are worried that scale expansion will not be able to reduce costs, resulting in \"operating leverage\" becoming \"operating negative leverage\", making the company unable to make a profit.</p><p><b>In terms of stock price,</b>Some investors worry that external unfavorable factors will lead to the loss of a large number of foreign investors, and at the same time, business growth prospects will be affected, resulting in a strong willingness of current cornerstone investors to launch after the lock-up period, resulting in long-term instability of stock prices.</p><p>Furthermore,<b>In terms of liquidity,</b>There are also investors who worry that because cornerstone investors account for the majority of the share, although the company's stock price will have a strong trend in the short term, its long-term liquidity will be worrying.</p><p>However, after listing, SenseTime went out of a trend that exceeded the expectations of most investors. So, why can SenseTime's stock price be so powerful in the midst of pessimism?</p><p>In this regard,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Liu Yang's team believes that,<b>The current trend of SenseTime exceeding the expectations of many investors is inseparable from the fact that investors are more concerned about whether the stock is related to the AI industry and whether it is related to the hot spots in metaverse.</b>The team mentioned:</p><p>According to SenseTime's prospectus, it is pointed out that \"we have built multi-layer infrastructure to empower IoT devices and drive the Metaverse (Metaverse) to improve the end-user experience.\" \"In 2016,..., over the years, it has been more than 450 million units<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Empowered by mobile phones and more than 200 mobile applications, and has become one of the largest metaverse empowerment platforms \") In the past year, review's AI company has gone from suffering setbacks in listing to being able to go public at a loss.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06806\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Liu Yang's team concluded that although the industry situation has not fundamentally changed,<b>But the global technology and capital market landscape has changed. In the future, the Science and Technology Innovation Board/Hong Kong Stocks/Beijing Stock Exchange will assume more technological strength.</b></p><p>At the same time, the team believes that SenseTime's current trend, which exceeds the expectations of many investors, can bring the following two inspirations to investors.</p><p><h2>1. Three opportunities to accelerate AI implementation in 2022</h2>The implementation of the fragmented scenario of AI has led leading companies to divide into two paths, with the \"lower cost\" represented by Hikvision Dahua and the \"larger model\" represented by SenseTime and Kuang. Specifically,<b>AI companies such as SenseTime and Megvii choose to develop their own deep learning training platforms.</b>A \"big device\" base has been built-that is, a completely self-developed AI infrastructure including computing power, algorithms, platforms and underlying training reasoning frameworks.</p><p>First of all, after analyzing these two AI paths, Shenwan Hongyuan Liu Yang's team believes that:</p><p><ul><li><b>Smart city/security/smart manufacturing link</b>, will still be Hikvision,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002236\">Dahua Shares</a>The advantageous industries of the path;</li><li><b>Mobile phones, medical care and other areas that may be tried by SenseTime and Megvii Technology's large models</b>, the current AI penetration needs to be improved<b>Logistics, automotive industry</b>Then still<b>Need more time to verify.</b></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b456572de0838c9f0122212c3939e65\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Regarding the prospects of the artificial intelligence industry in 2022, Shenwan Hongyuan Liu Yang's team believes that the AI industry will usher in triple opportunities for accelerated implementation:<b>1) Mature application scenarios emerge; 2) Intensive catalysis of the 14th Five-Year Plan policy; 3) The wave of AI unicorn listings has begun.</b></p><p><b>1) Opportunity 1: Mature application scenarios emerge</b></p><p>Shenwan Hongyuan Liu Yang's team believes that the current intelligent manufacturing, smart warehousing and logistics, smart finance,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000816\">Smart agriculture</a>, smart medical care, smart home, etc.<b>Mature AI application scenarios are emerging</b>, leading AI companies have a large number of benchmark cases.</p><p>At the same time, from the analysis of ROI (return on investment), the team believes that,<b>The high returns of the AI industry can accelerate the popularization of the AI industry:</b></p><p>Based on the AI cases provided by Hikvision's official official account, we calculate that the ROI of customers after purchase is mostly 50%-150%, and the investment payback period is only 1-2 years; According to iResearch's research results, 50% of enterprise AI projects have a return period of 1 to 3 years, and 36% of enterprise AI projects have a return period of 0.5 to 1 year. High ROI catalyzes the accelerated popularization of AI empowerment.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/595cd2667929873bf94d0fddcd6773dd\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) Opportunity 2: Intensive catalysis of 14th Five-Year Plan policies</b></p><p>Recently, the official website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has intensively published the \"14th Five-Year Plan\" development plan for intelligent and information-related industries, which puts forward multi-level development goals for the artificial intelligence industry. Shen Hongyuan Liu Yang's team believes that:</p><p><ul><li><b>On the To G side,</b>The 14th Five-Year Plan contains a large number of requirements to improve the government's digital governance capabilities, which are expected to be accelerated in 2022;</li><li>AI is also an implementation<b>Dual carbon targets</b>Important means.</li></ul>The policies related to artificial intelligence are sorted out as shown in the following table:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81149bb8dcb82f70ca88ac49a3b5557c\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"839\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3) Opportunity 3: The wave of AI unicorn listings begins</b></p><p>After SenseTime, AI companies such as Yuncong Technology, Megvii Technology, Yuntian Lifei, and Geling Shentong plan to complete their listing on the Science and Technology Innovation Board in 2022; AI cutting-edge companies such as 4Paradigm and Innovation Qizhi have also submitted prospectuses to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to actively promote the listing process. In this context, Shenwan Hongyuan Liu Yang's team expects that,<b>The wave of AI unicorn listings is expected to bring higher attention and valuation anchors to the AI sector.</b></p><p>In addition, the team believes that:</p><p>In the post-demographic dividend era, AI is expected to become a high-prosperity track for more than ten years; The conditions for explosive growth in demand are already in place, and the bottleneck at this stage may lie on the supply side; The industry will gain triple opportunities such as a large number of demonstration effects of successful cases of AI empowerment, a large number of policy catalysis during the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the wave of AI unicorn listings; Focus on the landing capabilities of AI companies.<h2>2. Hong Kong stock TMT, re-evaluation of cognition</h2>Shen Hongyuan Liu Yang's team believes that,<b>With changes in the global technology and capital market structure, Hong Kong stocks may be undervalued. In the future, Hong Kong stocks are expected to become a new global capitalization harbor for technology</b>。</p><p>The team concluded:</p><p>1) Investors believe that the different investor compositions and valuation systems in the Hong Kong market/mainland China market are factors that hinder the performance of Hong Kong stock technology. 2) Hard technology has been listed on the A-share market and is world-class. Soft technology once favored overseas listings because its growth was often non-linear. 3) It is expected that in the future, if the business model belongs to intangible assets to create value, as the overseas listing environment changes, more Hong Kong stock IPOs will be chosen. 4) TMT's \"soft and hard technology\" has industrial chain linkage and transmission, and the maturity of \"hard technology\" leads to a more mature \"soft technology\" industry. From a domestic perspective: Hong Kong stocks that are easy to invest in are easier than those in Europe and the United States. Therefore, we expect that the valuation system for domestic investors to invest in \"soft technology\" in Hong Kong stocks will be different from before (there were mostly European and American investors before, but Hong Kong stocks were not their best choice). 5) The current static PS of SenseTime in 2020 is about 61 times, which is higher than the Hang Seng Technology Index/A-share AI. It has a demonstration effect, and this \"demonstration effect\" may have a far-reaching impact.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/034269e5bc2020ed77b44e86f6ff91c9\" tg-width=\"761\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3648778\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b2be8352a2da2e1aeca513d0b204831","relate_stocks":{"00020":"商汤-W"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3648778","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2200717854","content_text":"摘要：申万宏源刘洋团队认为，虽然行业情况并没有发生根本变化，但全球科技和资本市场格局变了。以后，科创板/港股/北交所将承担更多科技力量。2022年1月4日，港股商汤继续逆市大涨，上市之后四连涨。截至发稿，商汤涨幅达10.97%，延续了此前股价三天翻倍的神迹。同时，商汤的优异表现也激励了A股的“AI兄弟”，虹软科技、海康威视、科大讯飞、大华股份等一众“AI概念股”早盘纷纷高开。然而，叠加了元宇宙概念、“AI第一股”名号的商汤，在股价光鲜的背后，却是坎坷的上市历程。上个月，商汤更是因诸多外部不利消息导致上市计划一度搁浅。好在，商汤顶住了压力，到12月20日便已迅速完成了一系列复杂手续，重新调整股份结构，并再次刊发《招股章程》，宣布于12月30日上市，且发行规模和定价区间不变。这时，已有投资者注意到，商汤的基石投资者名单已经发生了重大改变。Pleiad、WT、Focustar Capital、Focustar Fund 和 Hel Ved 等外资基石投资者已相继退出。此后，大量质疑声四起。对于基本面，有投资者在读完招股书后发现，商汤的单个客户占比过高以及存量客户延续性不高，对于商汤收入的可持续性及稳定性发出质疑；也有投资者认为商汤的定制业务占比过高，对商汤业务的成本费用控制能力起疑，担心规模扩增却无法降成本，导致“经营杠杆”变成“经营负杠杆”，使得公司无法盈利。在股价上看，有投资者担心，外部不利因素会导致大量外资投资者流失，同时业务增长前景会受到影响，导致当前的基石投资者在锁定期后推出意愿强烈，导致股价的长期不稳。此外，在流动性方面，还有投资者担心由于基石投资者占大部分份额，会使得公司股价虽在短期稳健趋势强劲，但长期流动性堪忧。然而，上市后的商汤走出了超过多数投资者预期的走势。那么，为何商汤能在一片悲观声中股价气势如虹？对此，申万宏源刘洋团队认为，商汤当前超过较多投资者预期的走势，与目前投资者们更关心股票是否与AI行业有关，是否与元宇宙热点有关的大环境脱不开干系。该团队提及：根据商汤招股说明书，指出“我们已构建用于赋能IoT设备及驱动元宇宙(Metaverse)的多层基础设施，以提升终端使用者体验”，“2016年,……,多年来已为超过450百万部智能手机及超过200个手机应用程序赋能，并成为最大的元宇宙赋能平台之一”）复盘过去一年AI公司从遭遇上市挫折，到目前可以亏损上市的历程，申万宏源刘洋团队总结到，虽行业情况并没有发生根本变化，但全球科技和资本市场格局变了。以后，科创板/港股/北交所将承担更多科技力量。同时，该团队认为，商汤当下超众多投资者预期的走势，可以给投资者带来以下两点启发。1. 2022年AI落地加速的三种机遇AI的碎片化场景落地，使得领军公司分为两种路径，以海康大华为代表的“更低的成本”和商汤、旷视为代表的“更大的模型”。具体来说，商汤、旷视等AI企业选择自研深度学习训练平台，搭建了“大装置”底座——即包含算力、算法、平台和底层训练推理框架完全自研的AI基础设施。首先，在对这两种AI路径进行分析后，申万宏源刘洋团队认为：智慧城市/安防/智能制造环节，仍将是海康威视、大华股份路径的优势行业；手机、医疗等可能商汤、旷视科技的大模型努力尝试的领域，目前AI渗透有待提升的物流、汽车行业则仍需要更多时间验证。对于人工智能行业在2022年的前景，申万宏源刘洋团队认为，AI产业将迎来落地加速的三重机遇：1）成熟的应用场景涌现；2）十四五政策密集催化；3）AI 独角兽上市潮开启。1）机遇一：成熟的应用场景涌现申万宏源刘洋团队认为，当下智能制造、智慧仓储物流、智慧金融、智慧农业、智慧医疗、智能家居等成熟的AI应用场景正在涌现，领军AI 公司已有大量标杆案例。同时，从ROI（投资回报率）上分析，该团队认为，AI行业的高回报可以加速AI产业的普及：以海康威视官方公众号提供的AI案例为计算依据，我们计算客户采购后ROI大多为50%-150%，投资回收期仅为1-2年；根据艾瑞咨询的调研结果，50%的企业AI项目回报周期在1~3年，36%的企业回报周期在0.5~1年。高ROI催化了AI赋能加速普及。2）机遇二：十四五政策密集催化近期，工信部官网密集刊登智能化、信息化相关产业的“十四五”发展规划，其中对人工智能产业提出了多层次发展目标。申万宏源刘洋团队认为：在To G端，十四五规划中包含大量提高政府数字化治理能力的要求，预计将在2022年加快落地；AI也是实现双碳目标的重要手段。对与人工智能有关的政策进行了梳理如下表所示：3）机遇三：AI 独角兽上市潮开启在商汤之后，云从科技、旷视科技、云天励飞、格灵深瞳等AI公司拟于2022年在科创板完成上市；第四范式、创新奇智等AI新锐也已向港交所递交招股书，积极推进上市进程。在此背景下，申万宏源刘洋团队预期，AI独角兽上市潮有望为AI板块带来更高的关注度和估值锚。此外，该团队认为：后人口红利时代，AI有望成为十年以上的高景气赛道；需求爆发增长的条件已经具备，现阶段瓶颈可能在于供给端；行业将获得AI赋能成功案例大量示范效应、十四五大量政策催化、AI独角兽上市潮等三重机遇；重点关注AI企业的落地能力。2. 港股TMT，认知的再评估申万宏源刘洋团队认为，全球科技和资本市场格局的变化，港股可能被低估，未来，港股有望成为科技新的全球资本化港湾。该团队总结到：1）投资者认为香港市场/中国大陆市场不同的投资者成分、估值体系，是阻碍港股科技表现的因素。2）硬科技已A股上市，且属于世界一流。软科技曾经青睐海外上市，因其成长经常并非线性。3）预计未来，商业模式属于无形资产创造价值的，伴随海外上市环境变化，会更多选择港股IPO。4）TMT的“软硬科技”存在产业链联动和传导，“硬科技“的成熟，导致“软科技”产业更成熟。而从国内的视角：便于投资的港股比投向欧美容易。因此，国内投资者去港股投资“软科技“的估值体系，我们预计会和以前不同（之前欧美投资者居多，但港股不是其最优选择）。5）当前商汤的2020年静态PS约61倍，高于恒生科技指数/A股AI，有示范效应，且这种“示范效应”可能会产生深远影响。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"90006":1,"00020":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9095853210,"gmtCreate":1644884836583,"gmtModify":1676533971483,"author":{"id":"4094690095246560","authorId":"4094690095246560","name":"jiakit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf1920b6f979eee904cab1954836930d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094690095246560","idStr":"4094690095246560"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>good","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a 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18:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Heavy breakout! The central bank announced: a comprehensive RRR cut, releasing 530 billion funds!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144854803","media":"中国人民银行","summary":"4月15日，中国人民银行：中国人民银行决定于2022年4月25日下调金融机构存款准备金率0.25个百分点。为支持实体经济发展，促进综合融资成本稳中有降，中国人民银行决定于2022年4月25日下调金融机","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>April 15, People's Bank of China: The People's Bank of China decided to lower the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25, 2022.</p><p>In order to support the development of the real economy and promote a steady reduction in comprehensive financing costs, the People's Bank of China decided to lower the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25, 2022 (excluding financial institutions that have implemented a 5% deposit reserve ratio). In order to increase support for small and micro enterprises and \"agriculture, rural areas and farmers\", for city commercial banks that do not operate across provinces and rural commercial banks with a deposit reserve ratio higher than 5%, on the basis of lowering the deposit reserve ratio by 0.25 percentage points, an additional 0.25 percentage points will be reduced. After this reduction, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is 8.1%.</p><p>The People's Bank of China will adhere to the principle of stability, strive for progress while maintaining stability, continue to implement a prudent monetary policy, avoid flooding, take into account internal and external balance, better play the dual functions of monetary policy tools in total volume and structure, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, keep the growth rate of money supply and social financing basically match the nominal economic growth rate, stimulate market vitality, support financing in key areas and weak links, and create a suitable monetary and financial environment for high-quality development and supply-side structural reform.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ada880b3dbaa518de26c2db245ace44\" tg-width=\"1470\" tg-height=\"812\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The impact of RRR cuts on the market</b></p><p><b>Why the RRR cut?</b></p><p>Ming Ming, co-chief economist of CITIC Securities, said that although the maturity scale of MLF is low in the next quarter, there are still liquidity gaps caused by the peak tax period, the centralized issuance of government bonds, and the large maturity scale of interbank certificates of deposit, which may be used as the trigger of RRR cut. Secondly, from the perspective of expanding the scale of new loans, the current bank excess reserve ratio is declining again. To further guide financial institutions to increase credit supply and reduce loan interest rates, on the one hand, it is necessary to make up for the medium and long-term funding gap, and on the other hand, it is necessary to reduce the debt cost.</p><p>Li Chao, chief economist of Zheshang Securities, believes that the epidemic has aggravated the uncertainty of economic fundamentals and increased the downward pressure on the economy. At present, the monetary policy still takes steady growth as its primary goal, and the focus is on credit. Credit is the most effective means to ease credit, and it is an effective way to promote enterprises to expand capital expenditure and prevent financial idling.</p><p>Huang Wentao, chief economist of CITIC Securities, analyzed that the downward pressure on the economy has increased: First, the impact of the pulse epidemic has had a significant impact on domestic and foreign demand and confidence. At present, the domestic sporadic epidemic still has a significant impact on my country's economy, and various issues such as consumption, real estate, infrastructure, and income are facing greater pressure. Especially when the economic data of the first quarter is about to be released, we judge that the data of the first quarter may be lower than market expectations. Second, the momentum of exports may fall back, Baidu's momentum of economic recovery has weakened, the economic high point has passed, there are unfavorable factors for overseas recovery, and durable goods and other product types that are in line with my country's exports are also slightly overdrawn in the early stage. Third, domestic real estate and its industrial chain are facing liquidity pressure and default impact, and the growth rate of the entire industrial chain is declining rapidly.</p><p><b>The implementation of the RRR cut will help companies bail out during the epidemic, boost the real economy, and help stabilize stocks and bonds.</b></p><p>China Merchants Fund commented that the 4.13 National Standing Committee pointed out that \"large banks with high provision levels are encouraged to reduce the provision coverage ratio in an orderly manner\", and in terms of monetary policy, it emphasized \"further increasing financial support for the real economy, especially industries severely affected by the epidemic. and support for small, medium and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households.\"</p><p>Under the impact of the epidemic, banks have reduced the provision coverage ratio, which will help increase the support of credit funds to entities; At the same time, we will increase support for industries and small and micro enterprises seriously affected by the epidemic, which has obvious characteristics of helping enterprises bail out during the epidemic, and will also help to broaden credit.</p><p>However, it should be noted that since the current financing demand of the real economy is still sluggish and the epidemic has suppressed the economic vitality, in the case of loose liquidity, it is necessary to be alert to idling funds and enterprises \"borrowing new to repay old\", which may weaken the actual pulling effect of monetary easing on the real economy to a certain extent.</p><p>For the capital market, after previous RRR cuts, the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 have higher short-term winning rates, while the medium and long-term winning rates have declined but the increase has expanded; The bond market can better reflect the expectation of RRR cut in advance, and interest rates are mixed after the RRR cut is implemented. Therefore, given that the market expectation of this RRR cut is relatively sufficient, it is expected that the RRR cut will be beneficial to the stock market in the short term, but to the bond market to a limited extent.</p><p><b>Xinhua Fund's evaluation of RRR cut: It will be beneficial to the market to a certain extent, and the low valuation direction that benefits from steady growth in the short term is expected to continue to dominate</b></p><p>Zhang Lin, director of the research department and fund manager of Xinhua Fund, said that the core purpose of the RRR cut is to extend credit support to industries affected by the epidemic and small, medium and micro enterprises, reduce their financing costs, and thereby stabilize employment. This shows the determination and attitude of the regulatory authorities to stabilize the economy, which is beneficial to the market and will change the rhythm of market operation. However, considering the impact of economic fundamentals on the market, this will not change the overall direction of market operation.</p><p>We believe that since the end of February, the spread of domestic epidemics and overseas geopolitical conflicts have had a significant impact on stable growth and corporate profit distribution patterns. The short-term corporate profit distribution pattern will also deteriorate. The economy will face pressure to break through 5 in the first quarter. Looking forward, fiscal efforts and social financing recovery are relatively certain, and real estate is also expected to recover to the 2019 level. The main variable is that virus mutation has increasingly higher requirements for blockades, which will have a more severe impact on the economy. Against the background that consumption and infrastructure were restricted by the epidemic in the second and third quarters, and real estate investment was difficult to recover quickly, the government lacked an obvious \"grasp\" to stabilize growth. Therefore, even if the unemployment rate shows an inflection point after the epidemic, the speed of employment recovery may still be slower than expected. Once it is difficult for the government to achieve the employment target of 5.5% within the year, the central bank may cut interest rates through MLF to support the economy and promote employment, and temporarily shelve the exchange rate and capital outflow risks caused by the inversion of Sino-US interest rate spreads. As the policy side is actively responding to the greater uncertainties and challenges faced by the economic operation, the low valuation direction that benefits from steady growth in the short term is expected to continue to dominate, while the overweight opportunities in the growth direction still need to wait for the effective control of the epidemic and the economic stabilization again.</p><p><b>The impact of the RRR cut on the bond market is relatively limited, and the equity market may face a structural rebound in the future</b></p><p>Zou Deli, general manager of the fixed income investment department of Great Wall Fund, said that at present, with the weak performance of the stock market and the continued sluggish real estate sales, especially the local outbreak of epidemics in many places, economic growth is under greater pressure. Under the background of steady growth and wide credit, credit supply further increased from March to April. At this time, it is a more appropriate time window to provide liquidity to support credit supply through RRR cuts.</p><p>He pointed out that from the historical situation, the RRR cut operation will not affect the central bank's decision on whether to cut interest rates. This week's National Standing Committee's formulation of \"reducing comprehensive financing costs\" requires more interest rate cuts to be realized, and the epidemic has impacted economic growth expectations. We judge that it is possible to further reduce MLF and LPR interest rates. The better time window for interest rate cuts is in the second quarter, and April may be a better choice when the Fed's rate hike window is empty.</p><p>Under the current scenario where monetary easing expectations are relatively sufficient, the impact of the RRR cut on the bond market is relatively limited. The National Standing Committee mentioned that the ten-year Treasury Bond will only fall by about 2BP after the RRR cut. The key lies in whether the policy interest rate is lowered. If the MLF interest rate is lowered, the bond market will usher in major benefits, and the bond interest rate will further decline. Overall, this year, the bond market was bullish in the first half of the year due to the pressure on economic growth brought by the spread of the epidemic, and may be bearish in the second half of the year due to stimulating economic recovery. In terms of the equity market, after the overall surge in the previous two years, it may be necessary to lower the expectation of investment returns for the whole year, but it should be at the bottom of the policy and the bottom of the market at present, and there may be a structural rebound in the future.</p><p><b>Stock Market Impact</b></p><p>According to the Industrial Securities strategy, the RRR cut is expected to boost short-term market sentiment. One week after the previous RRR cuts, the market has a high probability of rising, and the GEM Index and CSI 300 have a rising probability of 60%; Judging from the median rise and fall, the GEM index performed better than the CSI 300 one week after the RRR cut, and the growth and consumption in style were better than the cycle and finance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38a8ae8b1a97f0339dd07a63ec5794d8\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"782\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Bond market impact</b></p><p>According to the fixed income team of GF Securities, the impact on the bond market: liquidity is difficult to be loosened, and it is expected that it may turn to loose credit</p><p>The impact of RRR cuts on interest rates is mainly at two levels: First, the liquidity level. The impact of the RRR cut on the bond market through liquidity ultimately depends on the level at which the overnight funding interest rate will stabilize after the RRR cut, whether it is 1.5%, 1.8% or 2.0%. The interest rate of funds directly affects the interest rate of the bond market by leveraging the cost of funds.</p><p>The second is the expected level. After policies such as RRR cuts or interest rate cuts are implemented, bond market investors pay attention to whether there will be interest rate cuts in the future, which often determines the room for long-term interest rates to decline. We expect that under the external constraints of the Federal Reserve's rapid tightening of monetary policy, in order to take into account the external balance, the possibility of lowering MLF and reverse repurchase rates in the short term after the RRR cut will decrease.</p><p>After the RRR cut is implemented, we need to be alert to the bond market's interpretation of the logic of \"exhausting the profits\". The main line of the bond market may transition from the fulfillment of loose monetary expectations to the fulfillment of loose credit.</p><p><b>In addition to the RRR cut, will interest rates be cut?</b></p><p>What the market is concerned about is, in addition to the RRR cut, will interest rates be cut?</p><p>On the 15th, it was reported that the self-discipline mechanism of market interest rate pricing recently held a meeting to encourage small and medium-sized banks to lower the floating ceiling of deposit interest rates by about 10 basis points (BP); This requirement should not be mandatory, but banks that make adjustments may be beneficial to their macro-prudential assessment (MPA) assessment.</p><p>According to the analysis of soochow securities, the RRR cut that can be waited for cannot be waited for.</p><p>At this stage, it is weak to cut interest rates to promote the downward trend of entity financing costs and promote new credit expansion. According to the statements of the central bank's first quarter regular meeting and the National Standing Committee, ensuring \"reasonable and sufficient liquidity\" at this stage is the leading idea of the central bank's open market operations in the near future. With the U.S. CPI exceeding 8.5% and not yet peaking, the Fed's tightening pace will further accelerate. Under this expectation, other overseas central banks also quickly followed the tightening, such as the United Kingdom and Canada. In comparison, in addition to the inverted interest rate spread between China and the United States, China's 10-year Treasury Bond spread to the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Germany is rapidly narrowing. How to maintain the stability of China's currency value and form a capital depression is the main constraint hindering China's interest rate cut.</p><p>Reducing loan interest rates and corporate financing costs by releasing the potential of LPR reform should be the main way of monetary policy at this stage. According to the guidance of the National Standing Committee on April 13 (Wednesday), \"encouraging large banks with high provision levels to reduce the provision coverage ratio in an orderly manner and use monetary policy tools such as RRR cuts in a timely manner\" is intended to release more funds to promote bank credit supply, and at the same time promote the reduction of bank capital costs. Reducing the loan interest rate and guiding banks to make profits to enterprises by compressing the LPR plus point are the main efforts of the current policy. If the central bank implements a general reduction today, it is expected that the LPR quotation will decline in April.</p><p>Lian Ping, chief economist of Zhixin Investment, analyzed that there are currently no conditions for a direct interest rate cut.</p><p>Under external complicated circumstances such as strong expectations for continued rate hike by the Federal Reserve, inverted interest rate differentials between China and the United States, and turbulent international situations, my country's direct reduction in policy interest rates may increase the pressure on capital outflows and RMB depreciation, so we need to be relatively cautious. At present, my country's monetary policy will still adhere to the \"self-oriented\" principle. However, when external demand weakens, Southeast Asian manufacturing recovers, and Western sanctions against Russia may affect my country's exports, interest rate cuts may increase the pressure on my country's internal and external balance. From the perspective of policy effects, the RRR cut is conducive to the reduction of capital costs of commercial banks, and may further promote a slight reduction of LPR, which can push down market interest rates to a certain extent. However, if interest rates are cut at the same time, the superimposed effect of the \"double reduction\" policy may be too large. It is easy to push up the leverage ratio and increase financial risks.</p><p>According to the analysis of China Merchants Fund, interest rates may be cut after the RRR cut. In the past, the National Standing Committee raised and lowered the reserve requirement ratio, and in most cases, it would be implemented, ranging from 1-2 weeks as slow as 1-3 days as fast as 2-3 days. Considering that the policy level has repeatedly blown monetary policy recently, the reserve requirement ratio will be lowered at the expiration time of the MLF on April 15. It is more appropriate and in line with expectations. After the RRR cut, interest rates may also be cut. For example, the 1-year LPR interest rate may be lowered on April 20; If the epidemic continues to impact the economy, the MLF interest rate may be lowered again in the second quarter.</p><p><b>Here's the full text of the central bank</b></p><p>In order to support the development of the real economy and promote a steady reduction in comprehensive financing costs, the People's Bank of China decided to lower the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25, 2022 (excluding financial institutions that have implemented a 5% deposit reserve ratio). In order to increase support for small and micro enterprises and \"agriculture, rural areas and farmers\", for city commercial banks that do not operate across provinces and rural commercial banks with a deposit reserve ratio higher than 5%, on the basis of lowering the deposit reserve ratio by 0.25 percentage points, an additional 0.25 percentage points will be reduced. After this reduction, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is 8.1%.</p><p>The People's Bank of China will adhere to the principle of stability, strive for progress while maintaining stability, continue to implement a prudent monetary policy, avoid flooding, take into account internal and external balance, better play the dual functions of monetary policy tools in total volume and structure, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, keep the growth rate of money supply and social financing basically match the nominal economic growth rate, stimulate market vitality, support financing in key areas and weak links, and create a suitable monetary and financial environment for high-quality development and supply-side structural reform.</p><p><b>The relevant person in charge of the People's Bank of China answers reporters' questions on lowering the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions</b></p><p><b>Q: What is the purpose of this RRR cut?</b></p><p><b>A:</b>The current liquidity is at a reasonable and sufficient level. The purpose of this RRR cut is to optimize the capital structure of financial institutions, increase the long-term stable sources of funds of financial institutions, enhance the capital allocation capabilities of financial institutions, and increase support for the real economy. The second is to guide financial institutions to actively use RRR cut funds to support industries and small, medium and micro enterprises seriously affected by the epidemic. Third, this RRR cut reduces the capital cost of financial institutions by about 6.5 billion yuan per year, and the transmission through financial institutions can promote the reduction of comprehensive social financing costs.</p><p><b>Q: How much funds will be released by this RRR cut?</b></p><p><b>A:</b>The RRR cut released a total of about 530 billion yuan in long-term funds. This RRR cut is a comprehensive RRR cut. Except for some corporate financial institutions that have implemented the 5% deposit reserve ratio, the deposit reserve ratio of other financial institutions is generally lowered by 0.25 percentage points. For city commercial banks that do not operate across provinces and rural commercial banks with a deposit reserve ratio higher than 5%, on the basis of lowering the deposit reserve ratio by 0.25 percentage points, an additional 0.25 percentage points will be reduced, which will help increase support for small and micro enterprises and \"agriculture, rural areas and farmers\".</p><p><b>Q: What are the comprehensive considerations after this RRR cut?</b></p><p><b>A:</b>The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a prudent monetary policy. First, pay close attention to changes in price trends and maintain overall price stability. The second is to pay close attention to the adjustment of monetary policies in major developed economies and take into account internal and external balances. At the same time, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, promote the reduction of comprehensive financing costs, and stabilize the macroeconomic market.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"111133","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Heavy breakout! The central bank announced: a comprehensive RRR cut, releasing 530 billion funds!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHeavy breakout! The central bank announced: a comprehensive RRR cut, releasing 530 billion funds!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中国人民银行</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-15 18:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>April 15, People's Bank of China: The People's Bank of China decided to lower the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25, 2022.</p><p>In order to support the development of the real economy and promote a steady reduction in comprehensive financing costs, the People's Bank of China decided to lower the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25, 2022 (excluding financial institutions that have implemented a 5% deposit reserve ratio). In order to increase support for small and micro enterprises and \"agriculture, rural areas and farmers\", for city commercial banks that do not operate across provinces and rural commercial banks with a deposit reserve ratio higher than 5%, on the basis of lowering the deposit reserve ratio by 0.25 percentage points, an additional 0.25 percentage points will be reduced. After this reduction, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is 8.1%.</p><p>The People's Bank of China will adhere to the principle of stability, strive for progress while maintaining stability, continue to implement a prudent monetary policy, avoid flooding, take into account internal and external balance, better play the dual functions of monetary policy tools in total volume and structure, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, keep the growth rate of money supply and social financing basically match the nominal economic growth rate, stimulate market vitality, support financing in key areas and weak links, and create a suitable monetary and financial environment for high-quality development and supply-side structural reform.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ada880b3dbaa518de26c2db245ace44\" tg-width=\"1470\" tg-height=\"812\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The impact of RRR cuts on the market</b></p><p><b>Why the RRR cut?</b></p><p>Ming Ming, co-chief economist of CITIC Securities, said that although the maturity scale of MLF is low in the next quarter, there are still liquidity gaps caused by the peak tax period, the centralized issuance of government bonds, and the large maturity scale of interbank certificates of deposit, which may be used as the trigger of RRR cut. Secondly, from the perspective of expanding the scale of new loans, the current bank excess reserve ratio is declining again. To further guide financial institutions to increase credit supply and reduce loan interest rates, on the one hand, it is necessary to make up for the medium and long-term funding gap, and on the other hand, it is necessary to reduce the debt cost.</p><p>Li Chao, chief economist of Zheshang Securities, believes that the epidemic has aggravated the uncertainty of economic fundamentals and increased the downward pressure on the economy. At present, the monetary policy still takes steady growth as its primary goal, and the focus is on credit. Credit is the most effective means to ease credit, and it is an effective way to promote enterprises to expand capital expenditure and prevent financial idling.</p><p>Huang Wentao, chief economist of CITIC Securities, analyzed that the downward pressure on the economy has increased: First, the impact of the pulse epidemic has had a significant impact on domestic and foreign demand and confidence. At present, the domestic sporadic epidemic still has a significant impact on my country's economy, and various issues such as consumption, real estate, infrastructure, and income are facing greater pressure. Especially when the economic data of the first quarter is about to be released, we judge that the data of the first quarter may be lower than market expectations. Second, the momentum of exports may fall back, Baidu's momentum of economic recovery has weakened, the economic high point has passed, there are unfavorable factors for overseas recovery, and durable goods and other product types that are in line with my country's exports are also slightly overdrawn in the early stage. Third, domestic real estate and its industrial chain are facing liquidity pressure and default impact, and the growth rate of the entire industrial chain is declining rapidly.</p><p><b>The implementation of the RRR cut will help companies bail out during the epidemic, boost the real economy, and help stabilize stocks and bonds.</b></p><p>China Merchants Fund commented that the 4.13 National Standing Committee pointed out that \"large banks with high provision levels are encouraged to reduce the provision coverage ratio in an orderly manner\", and in terms of monetary policy, it emphasized \"further increasing financial support for the real economy, especially industries severely affected by the epidemic. and support for small, medium and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households.\"</p><p>Under the impact of the epidemic, banks have reduced the provision coverage ratio, which will help increase the support of credit funds to entities; At the same time, we will increase support for industries and small and micro enterprises seriously affected by the epidemic, which has obvious characteristics of helping enterprises bail out during the epidemic, and will also help to broaden credit.</p><p>However, it should be noted that since the current financing demand of the real economy is still sluggish and the epidemic has suppressed the economic vitality, in the case of loose liquidity, it is necessary to be alert to idling funds and enterprises \"borrowing new to repay old\", which may weaken the actual pulling effect of monetary easing on the real economy to a certain extent.</p><p>For the capital market, after previous RRR cuts, the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 have higher short-term winning rates, while the medium and long-term winning rates have declined but the increase has expanded; The bond market can better reflect the expectation of RRR cut in advance, and interest rates are mixed after the RRR cut is implemented. Therefore, given that the market expectation of this RRR cut is relatively sufficient, it is expected that the RRR cut will be beneficial to the stock market in the short term, but to the bond market to a limited extent.</p><p><b>Xinhua Fund's evaluation of RRR cut: It will be beneficial to the market to a certain extent, and the low valuation direction that benefits from steady growth in the short term is expected to continue to dominate</b></p><p>Zhang Lin, director of the research department and fund manager of Xinhua Fund, said that the core purpose of the RRR cut is to extend credit support to industries affected by the epidemic and small, medium and micro enterprises, reduce their financing costs, and thereby stabilize employment. This shows the determination and attitude of the regulatory authorities to stabilize the economy, which is beneficial to the market and will change the rhythm of market operation. However, considering the impact of economic fundamentals on the market, this will not change the overall direction of market operation.</p><p>We believe that since the end of February, the spread of domestic epidemics and overseas geopolitical conflicts have had a significant impact on stable growth and corporate profit distribution patterns. The short-term corporate profit distribution pattern will also deteriorate. The economy will face pressure to break through 5 in the first quarter. Looking forward, fiscal efforts and social financing recovery are relatively certain, and real estate is also expected to recover to the 2019 level. The main variable is that virus mutation has increasingly higher requirements for blockades, which will have a more severe impact on the economy. Against the background that consumption and infrastructure were restricted by the epidemic in the second and third quarters, and real estate investment was difficult to recover quickly, the government lacked an obvious \"grasp\" to stabilize growth. Therefore, even if the unemployment rate shows an inflection point after the epidemic, the speed of employment recovery may still be slower than expected. Once it is difficult for the government to achieve the employment target of 5.5% within the year, the central bank may cut interest rates through MLF to support the economy and promote employment, and temporarily shelve the exchange rate and capital outflow risks caused by the inversion of Sino-US interest rate spreads. As the policy side is actively responding to the greater uncertainties and challenges faced by the economic operation, the low valuation direction that benefits from steady growth in the short term is expected to continue to dominate, while the overweight opportunities in the growth direction still need to wait for the effective control of the epidemic and the economic stabilization again.</p><p><b>The impact of the RRR cut on the bond market is relatively limited, and the equity market may face a structural rebound in the future</b></p><p>Zou Deli, general manager of the fixed income investment department of Great Wall Fund, said that at present, with the weak performance of the stock market and the continued sluggish real estate sales, especially the local outbreak of epidemics in many places, economic growth is under greater pressure. Under the background of steady growth and wide credit, credit supply further increased from March to April. At this time, it is a more appropriate time window to provide liquidity to support credit supply through RRR cuts.</p><p>He pointed out that from the historical situation, the RRR cut operation will not affect the central bank's decision on whether to cut interest rates. This week's National Standing Committee's formulation of \"reducing comprehensive financing costs\" requires more interest rate cuts to be realized, and the epidemic has impacted economic growth expectations. We judge that it is possible to further reduce MLF and LPR interest rates. The better time window for interest rate cuts is in the second quarter, and April may be a better choice when the Fed's rate hike window is empty.</p><p>Under the current scenario where monetary easing expectations are relatively sufficient, the impact of the RRR cut on the bond market is relatively limited. The National Standing Committee mentioned that the ten-year Treasury Bond will only fall by about 2BP after the RRR cut. The key lies in whether the policy interest rate is lowered. If the MLF interest rate is lowered, the bond market will usher in major benefits, and the bond interest rate will further decline. Overall, this year, the bond market was bullish in the first half of the year due to the pressure on economic growth brought by the spread of the epidemic, and may be bearish in the second half of the year due to stimulating economic recovery. In terms of the equity market, after the overall surge in the previous two years, it may be necessary to lower the expectation of investment returns for the whole year, but it should be at the bottom of the policy and the bottom of the market at present, and there may be a structural rebound in the future.</p><p><b>Stock Market Impact</b></p><p>According to the Industrial Securities strategy, the RRR cut is expected to boost short-term market sentiment. One week after the previous RRR cuts, the market has a high probability of rising, and the GEM Index and CSI 300 have a rising probability of 60%; Judging from the median rise and fall, the GEM index performed better than the CSI 300 one week after the RRR cut, and the growth and consumption in style were better than the cycle and finance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38a8ae8b1a97f0339dd07a63ec5794d8\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"782\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Bond market impact</b></p><p>According to the fixed income team of GF Securities, the impact on the bond market: liquidity is difficult to be loosened, and it is expected that it may turn to loose credit</p><p>The impact of RRR cuts on interest rates is mainly at two levels: First, the liquidity level. The impact of the RRR cut on the bond market through liquidity ultimately depends on the level at which the overnight funding interest rate will stabilize after the RRR cut, whether it is 1.5%, 1.8% or 2.0%. The interest rate of funds directly affects the interest rate of the bond market by leveraging the cost of funds.</p><p>The second is the expected level. After policies such as RRR cuts or interest rate cuts are implemented, bond market investors pay attention to whether there will be interest rate cuts in the future, which often determines the room for long-term interest rates to decline. We expect that under the external constraints of the Federal Reserve's rapid tightening of monetary policy, in order to take into account the external balance, the possibility of lowering MLF and reverse repurchase rates in the short term after the RRR cut will decrease.</p><p>After the RRR cut is implemented, we need to be alert to the bond market's interpretation of the logic of \"exhausting the profits\". The main line of the bond market may transition from the fulfillment of loose monetary expectations to the fulfillment of loose credit.</p><p><b>In addition to the RRR cut, will interest rates be cut?</b></p><p>What the market is concerned about is, in addition to the RRR cut, will interest rates be cut?</p><p>On the 15th, it was reported that the self-discipline mechanism of market interest rate pricing recently held a meeting to encourage small and medium-sized banks to lower the floating ceiling of deposit interest rates by about 10 basis points (BP); This requirement should not be mandatory, but banks that make adjustments may be beneficial to their macro-prudential assessment (MPA) assessment.</p><p>According to the analysis of soochow securities, the RRR cut that can be waited for cannot be waited for.</p><p>At this stage, it is weak to cut interest rates to promote the downward trend of entity financing costs and promote new credit expansion. According to the statements of the central bank's first quarter regular meeting and the National Standing Committee, ensuring \"reasonable and sufficient liquidity\" at this stage is the leading idea of the central bank's open market operations in the near future. With the U.S. CPI exceeding 8.5% and not yet peaking, the Fed's tightening pace will further accelerate. Under this expectation, other overseas central banks also quickly followed the tightening, such as the United Kingdom and Canada. In comparison, in addition to the inverted interest rate spread between China and the United States, China's 10-year Treasury Bond spread to the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Germany is rapidly narrowing. How to maintain the stability of China's currency value and form a capital depression is the main constraint hindering China's interest rate cut.</p><p>Reducing loan interest rates and corporate financing costs by releasing the potential of LPR reform should be the main way of monetary policy at this stage. According to the guidance of the National Standing Committee on April 13 (Wednesday), \"encouraging large banks with high provision levels to reduce the provision coverage ratio in an orderly manner and use monetary policy tools such as RRR cuts in a timely manner\" is intended to release more funds to promote bank credit supply, and at the same time promote the reduction of bank capital costs. Reducing the loan interest rate and guiding banks to make profits to enterprises by compressing the LPR plus point are the main efforts of the current policy. If the central bank implements a general reduction today, it is expected that the LPR quotation will decline in April.</p><p>Lian Ping, chief economist of Zhixin Investment, analyzed that there are currently no conditions for a direct interest rate cut.</p><p>Under external complicated circumstances such as strong expectations for continued rate hike by the Federal Reserve, inverted interest rate differentials between China and the United States, and turbulent international situations, my country's direct reduction in policy interest rates may increase the pressure on capital outflows and RMB depreciation, so we need to be relatively cautious. At present, my country's monetary policy will still adhere to the \"self-oriented\" principle. However, when external demand weakens, Southeast Asian manufacturing recovers, and Western sanctions against Russia may affect my country's exports, interest rate cuts may increase the pressure on my country's internal and external balance. From the perspective of policy effects, the RRR cut is conducive to the reduction of capital costs of commercial banks, and may further promote a slight reduction of LPR, which can push down market interest rates to a certain extent. However, if interest rates are cut at the same time, the superimposed effect of the \"double reduction\" policy may be too large. It is easy to push up the leverage ratio and increase financial risks.</p><p>According to the analysis of China Merchants Fund, interest rates may be cut after the RRR cut. In the past, the National Standing Committee raised and lowered the reserve requirement ratio, and in most cases, it would be implemented, ranging from 1-2 weeks as slow as 1-3 days as fast as 2-3 days. Considering that the policy level has repeatedly blown monetary policy recently, the reserve requirement ratio will be lowered at the expiration time of the MLF on April 15. It is more appropriate and in line with expectations. After the RRR cut, interest rates may also be cut. For example, the 1-year LPR interest rate may be lowered on April 20; If the epidemic continues to impact the economy, the MLF interest rate may be lowered again in the second quarter.</p><p><b>Here's the full text of the central bank</b></p><p>In order to support the development of the real economy and promote a steady reduction in comprehensive financing costs, the People's Bank of China decided to lower the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25, 2022 (excluding financial institutions that have implemented a 5% deposit reserve ratio). In order to increase support for small and micro enterprises and \"agriculture, rural areas and farmers\", for city commercial banks that do not operate across provinces and rural commercial banks with a deposit reserve ratio higher than 5%, on the basis of lowering the deposit reserve ratio by 0.25 percentage points, an additional 0.25 percentage points will be reduced. After this reduction, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is 8.1%.</p><p>The People's Bank of China will adhere to the principle of stability, strive for progress while maintaining stability, continue to implement a prudent monetary policy, avoid flooding, take into account internal and external balance, better play the dual functions of monetary policy tools in total volume and structure, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, keep the growth rate of money supply and social financing basically match the nominal economic growth rate, stimulate market vitality, support financing in key areas and weak links, and create a suitable monetary and financial environment for high-quality development and supply-side structural reform.</p><p><b>The relevant person in charge of the People's Bank of China answers reporters' questions on lowering the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions</b></p><p><b>Q: What is the purpose of this RRR cut?</b></p><p><b>A:</b>The current liquidity is at a reasonable and sufficient level. The purpose of this RRR cut is to optimize the capital structure of financial institutions, increase the long-term stable sources of funds of financial institutions, enhance the capital allocation capabilities of financial institutions, and increase support for the real economy. The second is to guide financial institutions to actively use RRR cut funds to support industries and small, medium and micro enterprises seriously affected by the epidemic. Third, this RRR cut reduces the capital cost of financial institutions by about 6.5 billion yuan per year, and the transmission through financial institutions can promote the reduction of comprehensive social financing costs.</p><p><b>Q: How much funds will be released by this RRR cut?</b></p><p><b>A:</b>The RRR cut released a total of about 530 billion yuan in long-term funds. This RRR cut is a comprehensive RRR cut. Except for some corporate financial institutions that have implemented the 5% deposit reserve ratio, the deposit reserve ratio of other financial institutions is generally lowered by 0.25 percentage points. For city commercial banks that do not operate across provinces and rural commercial banks with a deposit reserve ratio higher than 5%, on the basis of lowering the deposit reserve ratio by 0.25 percentage points, an additional 0.25 percentage points will be reduced, which will help increase support for small and micro enterprises and \"agriculture, rural areas and farmers\".</p><p><b>Q: What are the comprehensive considerations after this RRR cut?</b></p><p><b>A:</b>The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a prudent monetary policy. First, pay close attention to changes in price trends and maintain overall price stability. The second is to pay close attention to the adjustment of monetary policies in major developed economies and take into account internal and external balances. At the same time, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, promote the reduction of comprehensive financing costs, and stabilize the macroeconomic market.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.pbc.gov.cn/goutongjiaoliu/113456/113469/4531933/index.html\">中国人民银行</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4f6756652f6edd7784aff06d489c678","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://www.pbc.gov.cn/goutongjiaoliu/113456/113469/4531933/index.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144854803","content_text":"4月15日，中国人民银行：中国人民银行决定于2022年4月25日下调金融机构存款准备金率0.25个百分点。为支持实体经济发展，促进综合融资成本稳中有降，中国人民银行决定于2022年4月25日下调金融机构存款准备金率0.25个百分点（不含已执行5%存款准备金率的金融机构）。为加大对小微企业和“三农”的支持力度，对没有跨省经营的城商行和存款准备金率高于5%的农商行，在下调存款准备金率0.25个百分点的基础上，再额外多降0.25个百分点。本次下调后，金融机构加权平均存款准备金率为8.1%。中国人民银行将坚持稳字当头，稳中求进，继续实施稳健的货币政策，不搞大水漫灌，兼顾内外平衡，更好发挥货币政策工具的总量和结构双重功能，保持流动性合理充裕，保持货币供应量和社会融资规模增速同名义经济增速基本匹配，激发市场活力，支持重点领域和薄弱环节融资，为高质量发展和供给侧结构性改革营造适宜的货币金融环境。降准对市场的影响为何降准？中信证券联席首席经济学家明明称，虽然未来一个季度MLF到期规模低，但是仍然存在税期高峰、政府债券集中发行、同业存单到期规模大等导致的流动性缺口，这些可能作为降准的触发因素。其次，从扩大新增贷款规模的角度来看，当前银行超储率再次下行，要进一步引导金融机构加大信贷投放和降低贷款利率，一方面需要弥补中长期资金缺口，另一方面需要降低负债成本。浙商证券首席经济学家李超认为，疫情加剧经济基本面的不确定性，经济下行压力加大，当前货币政策仍以稳增长为首要目标，发力重点是信贷，信贷是宽信用最有效手段，是推进企业扩大资本开支、防止金融空转的有效途径。中信建投证券首席经济学家黄文涛分析称，经济下行压力加大：一是脉冲式疫情的冲击对国内外需求和信心产生明显冲击。目前来看，国内散发式的疫情对于我国经济仍有明显影响，消费、地产、基建、收入等各个问题都面临较大压力。特别是在一季度经济数据即将公布的情况下，我们判断一季度数据可能低于市场预期。二是出口的动能可能回落，经济复苏的百度动能减弱，经济高点已过，海外复苏存在不利因素，且耐用品等符合我国出口的产品类型前期也略有透支。三是国内的房地产及其产业链面临流动性压力和违约冲击，全产业链增速快速下滑。降准落地有助于疫情期间助企纾困，提振实体经济，有利于股债企稳。招商基金点评称，4.13国常会指出，“鼓励拨备水平较高的大型银行有序降低拨备覆盖率”，并在货币政策方面强调“进一步加大金融对实体经济特别是受疫情严重影响行业和中小微企业、个体工商户的支持力度”。在疫情冲击之下，银行降低拨备覆盖率，有助于提高信贷资金对实体支持力度；同时对受疫情影响严重的行业和小微企业加大支持，具备明显的疫情助企纾困特征，也有助于宽信用。但需要注意的是，由于当前实体经济融资需求仍低迷、疫情对经济活力进行压制，在流动性宽松情况下，需要警惕资金空转和企业“借新还旧”，这可能一定程度上削弱货币宽松对实体经济的实际拉动效果。对于资本市场，历次降准后，上证综指和沪深300短期胜率较高，中长期胜率下滑但涨幅扩大；债市更能提前反映降准预期，降准落地后利率涨跌不一。因此，鉴于此次降准市场预期已经较为充分，预计降准对股票市场短期利好，对债市利好程度有限。新华基金评降准：对市场的有一定利好，短期受益稳增长的低估值方向预计将继续占优新华基金研究部总监、基金经理张霖表示，降准的核心目的是为了给疫情影响行业和中小微企业宽信用支持，降低其融资成本，从而稳定就业，这表明了监管层稳定经济的决心与态度，对市场的有一定利好，会改变市场运行节奏，但考虑到经济基本面对市场的影响，这不会改变市场总体运行方向。我们认为，2月末以来国内疫情散发和海外地缘政治冲突对于稳增长和企业利润分配格局都造成明显冲击，1-2月经济企稳的势头在3月没能延续，随着原油等资源品价格再次大幅上涨，短期企业利润分配格局也将恶化，一季度经济面临破5压力，往后看，财政发力和社融回升都较为确定，地产也有望向19年水平修复，变数主要在于病毒变异对封锁要求越来越高，对经济冲击更加剧烈，上述宏观层面变化都对市场形成压制。在二、三季度消费、基建受疫情制约，地产投资又难以快速复苏的背景下，政府稳增长缺少明显“抓手”。因此即使疫情过后，失业率显现拐点，就业恢复的速度仍有可能不及预期。而一旦年内政府达成5.5%的就业目标存在困难，央行可能通过MLF降息托底经济、促进就业，暂时搁置中美利差倒挂带来的汇率及资本外流风险。由于政策面正在积极应对经济运行面临的更大不确定性和挑战，短期受益稳增长的低估值方向预计将继续占优，而成长方向的超配机会还需等待疫情有效控制和经济再次企稳。降准对于债券市场影响相对有限 未来权益市场可能迎结构性反弹行情长城基金固定收益投资部总经理邹德立表示，当前在股票市场表现疲软、地产销售持续低迷，特别是多地疫情局部爆发的情况下，经济增长遭遇较大压力。在稳增长、宽信用的背景下，3-4月份信贷投放进一步提高，此时通过降准投放流动性支持信贷投放，是比较合适的时间窗口。他指出，从历史情况来看，降准操作不会影响央行对于是否降息的决策。而本周国常会关于“降低综合融资成本”的提法更多需要降息操作才能够实现，而且疫情冲击经济增长预期，我们判断还会有可能进一步调降MLF和LPR利率。降息比较好的时间窗口在二季度，而四月份处在美联储加息空窗期或许是更好的选择。在当前货币宽松预期比较充分的情景下，降准对于债券市场影响相对有限，国常会提到降准后十年期国债仅下行2BP左右，关键在于政策利率是否调降。如果MLF利率调降，则债券市场迎来重大利好，债券利率将进一步下行。今年总体上，债券市场上半年因为疫情扩散带来经济增长压力而看涨，下半年可能因为刺激经济复苏而看跌。权益市场方面，经过前两年总体上的大涨后，或许应当降低对全年投资回报的期待值，但目前应处于政策底和市场底的阶段，未来有可能迎来结构性反弹行情。股市影响据兴证策略，降准落地有望提振短期市场情绪，历次降准落地后一周市场上涨概率较高，创业板指与沪深300上涨概率均达六成；而从涨跌幅中位数看，降准落地后一周创业板指表现优于沪深300，风格上成长和消费优于周期和金融。债市影响据广发证券固收团队，对债市影响：流动性难更松，预期或转向宽信用降准对利率的影响，主要是两个层面：一是流动性层面。降准通过流动性对债市生的影响，最终要看降准后，隔夜资金利率稳定在什么水平，是1.5%、1.8%还是2.0%。资金利率通过杠杆资金成本，直接对债市利率产生影响。二是预期层面。降准或降息等政策落地后，债市投资者关注后续是否还有降息，这往往决定长端利率下行的空间。我们预计在美联储快速收紧货币政策的外部约束下，为了兼顾外部平衡，降准之后短期内下调MLF和逆回购利率的可能性有所下降。待降准落地之后，需要警惕债市演绎“利多出尽”的逻辑，债市的主线可能从宽货币预期兑现向宽信用落地过渡。除了降准，还会降息吗？市场关心的是，除了降准，还会降息吗？15日，有报道称，近日市场利率定价自律机制召开会议，鼓励中小银行存款利率浮动上限下调10个基点(BP)左右；这一要求应并非强制，但做出调整的银行或将对其宏观审慎评估(MPA)考核有利。东吴证券分析称，等得来的降准等不来的降息。现阶段通过降息促进实体融资成本的下行、推动新增信贷扩张的可能性较弱。根据央行一季度例会和国常会的表述，现阶段保证“流动性合理充裕”是近期央行公开市场操作的主导思想。在美国CPI突破8.5%且尚未见顶的情况下，美联储紧缩步伐将进一步加快。在这一预期下，海外其他央行也快速跟随紧缩，如英国、加拿大。比较下，除中美利差倒挂外，中国对欧盟、英国、德国的10年期国债利差均在迅速缩窄。如何维护我国币值稳定、形成资金洼地是阻碍我国降息的主要掣肘。通过释放LPR改革潜力的方法降低贷款利率和企业融资成本，应是现阶段货币政策的主要发力方式。根据4月13日（周三）国常会的指导，“鼓励拨备水平较高的大型银行有序降低拨备覆盖率，适时运用降准等货币政策工具”意在释放更多资金促进银行信贷投放，同时促进银行资金成本的降低。通过压缩LPR加点部分的方式降低贷款利率、引导银行向企业让利是当前政策的主要发力点。若今日央行实施普降，预计4月LPR报价将出现下行。植信投资首席经济学家连平分析称，当前不具备直接降息的条件。在美联储持续加息预期强烈、中美利差出现倒挂、国际局势动荡等外部复杂情况下，我国直接下调政策利率可能会加大资本流出与人民币贬值压力，需要相对谨慎。当前我国货币政策仍将坚持“以我为主”，但在外需减弱、东南亚制造业恢复、西方对俄制裁等可能波及我国出口之时，降息可能会加重我国内外部平衡的压力。从政策效果来看，降准利于商业银行资金成本下降，可能会进一步推动LPR小幅下调，一定程度上能够推动市场利率下行，但如同时降息，“双降”的政策叠加效果可能会过大，容易推升杠杆率，增大金融风险。招商基金分析称，降准后可能再降息。以往国常会提降准，大部分情况下会落实，慢则 1-2 周，快则 2-3 天，考虑近期政策层多次吹风喊话货币政策，4月15日MLF到期时点降准较为合适，符合预期。降准后，也可能进行降息，如4月20日1年期LPR利率可能会下调；若疫情持续冲击经济，二季度也可能再降MLF利率。以下是央行全文为支持实体经济发展，促进综合融资成本稳中有降，中国人民银行决定于2022年4月25日下调金融机构存款准备金率0.25个百分点（不含已执行5%存款准备金率的金融机构）。为加大对小微企业和“三农”的支持力度，对没有跨省经营的城商行和存款准备金率高于5%的农商行，在下调存款准备金率0.25个百分点的基础上，再额外多降0.25个百分点。本次下调后，金融机构加权平均存款准备金率为8.1%。中国人民银行将坚持稳字当头，稳中求进，继续实施稳健的货币政策，不搞大水漫灌，兼顾内外平衡，更好发挥货币政策工具的总量和结构双重功能，保持流动性合理充裕，保持货币供应量和社会融资规模增速同名义经济增速基本匹配，激发市场活力，支持重点领域和薄弱环节融资，为高质量发展和供给侧结构性改革营造适宜的货币金融环境。中国人民银行有关负责人就下调金融机构存款准备金率答记者问问：此次降准的目的是什么？答：当前流动性已处于合理充裕水平。此次降准的目的，一是优化金融机构资金结构，增加金融机构长期稳定资金来源，增强金融机构资金配置能力，加大对实体经济的支持力度。二是引导金融机构积极运用降准资金支持受疫情严重影响行业和中小微企业。三是此次降准降低金融机构资金成本每年约65亿元，通过金融机构传导可促进降低社会综合融资成本。问：此次降准释放多少资金？答：此次降准共计释放长期资金约5300亿元。此次降准为全面降准，除已执行5%存款准备金率的部分法人金融机构外，对其他金融机构普遍下调存款准备金率0.25个百分点。对没有跨省经营的城商行和存款准备金率高于5%的农商行，在下调存款准备金率0.25个百分点的基础上，再额外多降0.25个百分点，有利于加大对小微企业和“三农”的支持力度。问：此次降准后有什么综合考虑？答：人民银行将继续实施稳健货币政策。一是密切关注物价走势变化，保持物价总体稳定。二是密切关注主要发达经济体货币政策调整，兼顾内外平衡。同时，保持流动性合理充裕，促进降低综合融资成本，稳定宏观经济大盘。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":756,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9002951361,"gmtCreate":1641898933575,"gmtModify":1676533659819,"author":{"id":"4094690095246560","authorId":"4094690095246560","name":"jiakit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf1920b6f979eee904cab1954836930d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094690095246560","idStr":"4094690095246560"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Read","listText":"Read","text":"Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9002951361","repostId":"1164377198","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":925,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9008387671,"gmtCreate":1641362162948,"gmtModify":1676533606204,"author":{"id":"4094690095246560","authorId":"4094690095246560","name":"jiakit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf1920b6f979eee904cab1954836930d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094690095246560","idStr":"4094690095246560"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9008387671","repostId":"2201288429","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":712,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9001539780,"gmtCreate":1641269104081,"gmtModify":1676533591347,"author":{"id":"4094690095246560","authorId":"4094690095246560","name":"jiakit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf1920b6f979eee904cab1954836930d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094690095246560","idStr":"4094690095246560"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001539780","repostId":"2200717854","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2200717854","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1641268267,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2200717854?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-04 11:51","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"It doubled in three days amid pessimism! What happened to SenseTime?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2200717854","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：申万宏源刘洋团队认为，虽然行业情况并没有发生根本变化，但全球科技和资本市场格局变了。以后，科创板/港股/北交所将承担更多科技力量。2022年1月4日，港股商汤继续逆市大涨，上市之后四连涨。截至发","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: Shenwan Hongyuan Liu Yang's team believes that although the industry situation has not fundamentally changed, the global technology and capital market structure has changed. In the future, the Science and Technology Innovation Board/Hong Kong Stocks/Beijing Stock Exchange will assume more technological strength. On January 4, 2022, the Hong Kong stock SenseTime continued to buck the market trend and rose sharply, rising for four consecutive days after listing. As of press time, SenseTime rose by 10.97%, continuing the previous miracle of doubling the stock price in three days. At the same time, SenseTime's excellent performance has also inspired the \"AI brothers\" of A shares.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688088\">ArcSoft Technology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002415\">Hikvision</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002230\">IFlytek</a>, Dahua shares and other \"AI concept stocks\" opened higher in early trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab04b1a49051bec7b6d05ee49038e765\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, SenseTime, which has superimposed the concept of metaverse and the name of \"the first AI stock\", has a bumpy listing process behind its glamorous stock price. Last month, SenseTime's listing plan was once stranded due to many external unfavorable news.</p><p>Fortunately, SenseTime withstood the pressure. By December 20, it had quickly completed a series of complicated procedures, readjusted the share structure, and published the \"Prospectus\" again, announcing its listing on December 30, and the issuance scale and The pricing range remains unchanged.</p><p><b>At this time, some investors have noticed that the list of cornerstone investors of SenseTime has undergone major changes.</b>Foreign cornerstone investors such as Pleiad, WT, Focustar Capital, Focustar Fund and Hel Ved have exited one after another.</p><p><b>Since then, there have been a lot of doubts.</b></p><p><b>For fundamentals,</b>After reading the prospectus, some investors found that the proportion of single customers of SenseTime was too high and the continuity of existing customers was not high, questioning the sustainability and stability of SenseTime's revenue; Some investors also believe that SenseTime's customized business accounts for too high a proportion, and they are doubtful about the cost control ability of SenseTime's business. They are worried that scale expansion will not be able to reduce costs, resulting in \"operating leverage\" becoming \"operating negative leverage\", making the company unable to make a profit.</p><p><b>In terms of stock price,</b>Some investors worry that external unfavorable factors will lead to the loss of a large number of foreign investors, and at the same time, business growth prospects will be affected, resulting in a strong willingness of current cornerstone investors to launch after the lock-up period, resulting in long-term instability of stock prices.</p><p>Furthermore,<b>In terms of liquidity,</b>There are also investors who worry that because cornerstone investors account for the majority of the share, although the company's stock price will have a strong trend in the short term, its long-term liquidity will be worrying.</p><p>However, after listing, SenseTime went out of a trend that exceeded the expectations of most investors. So, why can SenseTime's stock price be so powerful in the midst of pessimism?</p><p>In this regard,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Liu Yang's team believes that,<b>The current trend of SenseTime exceeding the expectations of many investors is inseparable from the fact that investors are more concerned about whether the stock is related to the AI industry and whether it is related to the hot spots in metaverse.</b>The team mentioned:</p><p>According to SenseTime's prospectus, it is pointed out that \"we have built multi-layer infrastructure to empower IoT devices and drive the Metaverse (Metaverse) to improve the end-user experience.\" \"In 2016,..., over the years, it has been more than 450 million units<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Empowered by mobile phones and more than 200 mobile applications, and has become one of the largest metaverse empowerment platforms \") In the past year, review's AI company has gone from suffering setbacks in listing to being able to go public at a loss.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06806\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Liu Yang's team concluded that although the industry situation has not fundamentally changed,<b>But the global technology and capital market landscape has changed. In the future, the Science and Technology Innovation Board/Hong Kong Stocks/Beijing Stock Exchange will assume more technological strength.</b></p><p>At the same time, the team believes that SenseTime's current trend, which exceeds the expectations of many investors, can bring the following two inspirations to investors.</p><p><h2>1. Three opportunities to accelerate AI implementation in 2022</h2>The implementation of the fragmented scenario of AI has led leading companies to divide into two paths, with the \"lower cost\" represented by Hikvision Dahua and the \"larger model\" represented by SenseTime and Kuang. Specifically,<b>AI companies such as SenseTime and Megvii choose to develop their own deep learning training platforms.</b>A \"big device\" base has been built-that is, a completely self-developed AI infrastructure including computing power, algorithms, platforms and underlying training reasoning frameworks.</p><p>First of all, after analyzing these two AI paths, Shenwan Hongyuan Liu Yang's team believes that:</p><p><ul><li><b>Smart city/security/smart manufacturing link</b>, will still be Hikvision,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002236\">Dahua Shares</a>The advantageous industries of the path;</li><li><b>Mobile phones, medical care and other areas that may be tried by SenseTime and Megvii Technology's large models</b>, the current AI penetration needs to be improved<b>Logistics, automotive industry</b>Then still<b>Need more time to verify.</b></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b456572de0838c9f0122212c3939e65\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Regarding the prospects of the artificial intelligence industry in 2022, Shenwan Hongyuan Liu Yang's team believes that the AI industry will usher in triple opportunities for accelerated implementation:<b>1) Mature application scenarios emerge; 2) Intensive catalysis of the 14th Five-Year Plan policy; 3) The wave of AI unicorn listings has begun.</b></p><p><b>1) Opportunity 1: Mature application scenarios emerge</b></p><p>Shenwan Hongyuan Liu Yang's team believes that the current intelligent manufacturing, smart warehousing and logistics, smart finance,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000816\">Smart agriculture</a>, smart medical care, smart home, etc.<b>Mature AI application scenarios are emerging</b>, leading AI companies have a large number of benchmark cases.</p><p>At the same time, from the analysis of ROI (return on investment), the team believes that,<b>The high returns of the AI industry can accelerate the popularization of the AI industry:</b></p><p>Based on the AI cases provided by Hikvision's official official account, we calculate that the ROI of customers after purchase is mostly 50%-150%, and the investment payback period is only 1-2 years; According to iResearch's research results, 50% of enterprise AI projects have a return period of 1 to 3 years, and 36% of enterprise AI projects have a return period of 0.5 to 1 year. High ROI catalyzes the accelerated popularization of AI empowerment.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/595cd2667929873bf94d0fddcd6773dd\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) Opportunity 2: Intensive catalysis of 14th Five-Year Plan policies</b></p><p>Recently, the official website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has intensively published the \"14th Five-Year Plan\" development plan for intelligent and information-related industries, which puts forward multi-level development goals for the artificial intelligence industry. Shen Hongyuan Liu Yang's team believes that:</p><p><ul><li><b>On the To G side,</b>The 14th Five-Year Plan contains a large number of requirements to improve the government's digital governance capabilities, which are expected to be accelerated in 2022;</li><li>AI is also an implementation<b>Dual carbon targets</b>Important means.</li></ul>The policies related to artificial intelligence are sorted out as shown in the following table:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81149bb8dcb82f70ca88ac49a3b5557c\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"839\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3) Opportunity 3: The wave of AI unicorn listings begins</b></p><p>After SenseTime, AI companies such as Yuncong Technology, Megvii Technology, Yuntian Lifei, and Geling Shentong plan to complete their listing on the Science and Technology Innovation Board in 2022; AI cutting-edge companies such as 4Paradigm and Innovation Qizhi have also submitted prospectuses to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to actively promote the listing process. In this context, Shenwan Hongyuan Liu Yang's team expects that,<b>The wave of AI unicorn listings is expected to bring higher attention and valuation anchors to the AI sector.</b></p><p>In addition, the team believes that:</p><p>In the post-demographic dividend era, AI is expected to become a high-prosperity track for more than ten years; The conditions for explosive growth in demand are already in place, and the bottleneck at this stage may lie on the supply side; The industry will gain triple opportunities such as a large number of demonstration effects of successful cases of AI empowerment, a large number of policy catalysis during the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the wave of AI unicorn listings; Focus on the landing capabilities of AI companies.<h2>2. Hong Kong stock TMT, re-evaluation of cognition</h2>Shen Hongyuan Liu Yang's team believes that,<b>With changes in the global technology and capital market structure, Hong Kong stocks may be undervalued. In the future, Hong Kong stocks are expected to become a new global capitalization harbor for technology</b>。</p><p>The team concluded:</p><p>1) Investors believe that the different investor compositions and valuation systems in the Hong Kong market/mainland China market are factors that hinder the performance of Hong Kong stock technology. 2) Hard technology has been listed on the A-share market and is world-class. Soft technology once favored overseas listings because its growth was often non-linear. 3) It is expected that in the future, if the business model belongs to intangible assets to create value, as the overseas listing environment changes, more Hong Kong stock IPOs will be chosen. 4) TMT's \"soft and hard technology\" has industrial chain linkage and transmission, and the maturity of \"hard technology\" leads to a more mature \"soft technology\" industry. From a domestic perspective: Hong Kong stocks that are easy to invest in are easier than those in Europe and the United States. Therefore, we expect that the valuation system for domestic investors to invest in \"soft technology\" in Hong Kong stocks will be different from before (there were mostly European and American investors before, but Hong Kong stocks were not their best choice). 5) The current static PS of SenseTime in 2020 is about 61 times, which is higher than the Hang Seng Technology Index/A-share AI. It has a demonstration effect, and this \"demonstration effect\" may have a far-reaching impact.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/034269e5bc2020ed77b44e86f6ff91c9\" tg-width=\"761\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It doubled in three days amid pessimism! What happened to SenseTime?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt doubled in three days amid pessimism! What happened to SenseTime?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-04 11:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: Shenwan Hongyuan Liu Yang's team believes that although the industry situation has not fundamentally changed, the global technology and capital market structure has changed. In the future, the Science and Technology Innovation Board/Hong Kong Stocks/Beijing Stock Exchange will assume more technological strength. On January 4, 2022, the Hong Kong stock SenseTime continued to buck the market trend and rose sharply, rising for four consecutive days after listing. As of press time, SenseTime rose by 10.97%, continuing the previous miracle of doubling the stock price in three days. At the same time, SenseTime's excellent performance has also inspired the \"AI brothers\" of A shares.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688088\">ArcSoft Technology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002415\">Hikvision</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002230\">IFlytek</a>, Dahua shares and other \"AI concept stocks\" opened higher in early trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab04b1a49051bec7b6d05ee49038e765\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, SenseTime, which has superimposed the concept of metaverse and the name of \"the first AI stock\", has a bumpy listing process behind its glamorous stock price. Last month, SenseTime's listing plan was once stranded due to many external unfavorable news.</p><p>Fortunately, SenseTime withstood the pressure. By December 20, it had quickly completed a series of complicated procedures, readjusted the share structure, and published the \"Prospectus\" again, announcing its listing on December 30, and the issuance scale and The pricing range remains unchanged.</p><p><b>At this time, some investors have noticed that the list of cornerstone investors of SenseTime has undergone major changes.</b>Foreign cornerstone investors such as Pleiad, WT, Focustar Capital, Focustar Fund and Hel Ved have exited one after another.</p><p><b>Since then, there have been a lot of doubts.</b></p><p><b>For fundamentals,</b>After reading the prospectus, some investors found that the proportion of single customers of SenseTime was too high and the continuity of existing customers was not high, questioning the sustainability and stability of SenseTime's revenue; Some investors also believe that SenseTime's customized business accounts for too high a proportion, and they are doubtful about the cost control ability of SenseTime's business. They are worried that scale expansion will not be able to reduce costs, resulting in \"operating leverage\" becoming \"operating negative leverage\", making the company unable to make a profit.</p><p><b>In terms of stock price,</b>Some investors worry that external unfavorable factors will lead to the loss of a large number of foreign investors, and at the same time, business growth prospects will be affected, resulting in a strong willingness of current cornerstone investors to launch after the lock-up period, resulting in long-term instability of stock prices.</p><p>Furthermore,<b>In terms of liquidity,</b>There are also investors who worry that because cornerstone investors account for the majority of the share, although the company's stock price will have a strong trend in the short term, its long-term liquidity will be worrying.</p><p>However, after listing, SenseTime went out of a trend that exceeded the expectations of most investors. So, why can SenseTime's stock price be so powerful in the midst of pessimism?</p><p>In this regard,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Liu Yang's team believes that,<b>The current trend of SenseTime exceeding the expectations of many investors is inseparable from the fact that investors are more concerned about whether the stock is related to the AI industry and whether it is related to the hot spots in metaverse.</b>The team mentioned:</p><p>According to SenseTime's prospectus, it is pointed out that \"we have built multi-layer infrastructure to empower IoT devices and drive the Metaverse (Metaverse) to improve the end-user experience.\" \"In 2016,..., over the years, it has been more than 450 million units<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Empowered by mobile phones and more than 200 mobile applications, and has become one of the largest metaverse empowerment platforms \") In the past year, review's AI company has gone from suffering setbacks in listing to being able to go public at a loss.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06806\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Liu Yang's team concluded that although the industry situation has not fundamentally changed,<b>But the global technology and capital market landscape has changed. In the future, the Science and Technology Innovation Board/Hong Kong Stocks/Beijing Stock Exchange will assume more technological strength.</b></p><p>At the same time, the team believes that SenseTime's current trend, which exceeds the expectations of many investors, can bring the following two inspirations to investors.</p><p><h2>1. Three opportunities to accelerate AI implementation in 2022</h2>The implementation of the fragmented scenario of AI has led leading companies to divide into two paths, with the \"lower cost\" represented by Hikvision Dahua and the \"larger model\" represented by SenseTime and Kuang. Specifically,<b>AI companies such as SenseTime and Megvii choose to develop their own deep learning training platforms.</b>A \"big device\" base has been built-that is, a completely self-developed AI infrastructure including computing power, algorithms, platforms and underlying training reasoning frameworks.</p><p>First of all, after analyzing these two AI paths, Shenwan Hongyuan Liu Yang's team believes that:</p><p><ul><li><b>Smart city/security/smart manufacturing link</b>, will still be Hikvision,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002236\">Dahua Shares</a>The advantageous industries of the path;</li><li><b>Mobile phones, medical care and other areas that may be tried by SenseTime and Megvii Technology's large models</b>, the current AI penetration needs to be improved<b>Logistics, automotive industry</b>Then still<b>Need more time to verify.</b></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b456572de0838c9f0122212c3939e65\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Regarding the prospects of the artificial intelligence industry in 2022, Shenwan Hongyuan Liu Yang's team believes that the AI industry will usher in triple opportunities for accelerated implementation:<b>1) Mature application scenarios emerge; 2) Intensive catalysis of the 14th Five-Year Plan policy; 3) The wave of AI unicorn listings has begun.</b></p><p><b>1) Opportunity 1: Mature application scenarios emerge</b></p><p>Shenwan Hongyuan Liu Yang's team believes that the current intelligent manufacturing, smart warehousing and logistics, smart finance,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000816\">Smart agriculture</a>, smart medical care, smart home, etc.<b>Mature AI application scenarios are emerging</b>, leading AI companies have a large number of benchmark cases.</p><p>At the same time, from the analysis of ROI (return on investment), the team believes that,<b>The high returns of the AI industry can accelerate the popularization of the AI industry:</b></p><p>Based on the AI cases provided by Hikvision's official official account, we calculate that the ROI of customers after purchase is mostly 50%-150%, and the investment payback period is only 1-2 years; According to iResearch's research results, 50% of enterprise AI projects have a return period of 1 to 3 years, and 36% of enterprise AI projects have a return period of 0.5 to 1 year. High ROI catalyzes the accelerated popularization of AI empowerment.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/595cd2667929873bf94d0fddcd6773dd\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) Opportunity 2: Intensive catalysis of 14th Five-Year Plan policies</b></p><p>Recently, the official website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has intensively published the \"14th Five-Year Plan\" development plan for intelligent and information-related industries, which puts forward multi-level development goals for the artificial intelligence industry. Shen Hongyuan Liu Yang's team believes that:</p><p><ul><li><b>On the To G side,</b>The 14th Five-Year Plan contains a large number of requirements to improve the government's digital governance capabilities, which are expected to be accelerated in 2022;</li><li>AI is also an implementation<b>Dual carbon targets</b>Important means.</li></ul>The policies related to artificial intelligence are sorted out as shown in the following table:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81149bb8dcb82f70ca88ac49a3b5557c\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"839\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3) Opportunity 3: The wave of AI unicorn listings begins</b></p><p>After SenseTime, AI companies such as Yuncong Technology, Megvii Technology, Yuntian Lifei, and Geling Shentong plan to complete their listing on the Science and Technology Innovation Board in 2022; AI cutting-edge companies such as 4Paradigm and Innovation Qizhi have also submitted prospectuses to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to actively promote the listing process. In this context, Shenwan Hongyuan Liu Yang's team expects that,<b>The wave of AI unicorn listings is expected to bring higher attention and valuation anchors to the AI sector.</b></p><p>In addition, the team believes that:</p><p>In the post-demographic dividend era, AI is expected to become a high-prosperity track for more than ten years; The conditions for explosive growth in demand are already in place, and the bottleneck at this stage may lie on the supply side; The industry will gain triple opportunities such as a large number of demonstration effects of successful cases of AI empowerment, a large number of policy catalysis during the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the wave of AI unicorn listings; Focus on the landing capabilities of AI companies.<h2>2. Hong Kong stock TMT, re-evaluation of cognition</h2>Shen Hongyuan Liu Yang's team believes that,<b>With changes in the global technology and capital market structure, Hong Kong stocks may be undervalued. In the future, Hong Kong stocks are expected to become a new global capitalization harbor for technology</b>。</p><p>The team concluded:</p><p>1) Investors believe that the different investor compositions and valuation systems in the Hong Kong market/mainland China market are factors that hinder the performance of Hong Kong stock technology. 2) Hard technology has been listed on the A-share market and is world-class. Soft technology once favored overseas listings because its growth was often non-linear. 3) It is expected that in the future, if the business model belongs to intangible assets to create value, as the overseas listing environment changes, more Hong Kong stock IPOs will be chosen. 4) TMT's \"soft and hard technology\" has industrial chain linkage and transmission, and the maturity of \"hard technology\" leads to a more mature \"soft technology\" industry. From a domestic perspective: Hong Kong stocks that are easy to invest in are easier than those in Europe and the United States. Therefore, we expect that the valuation system for domestic investors to invest in \"soft technology\" in Hong Kong stocks will be different from before (there were mostly European and American investors before, but Hong Kong stocks were not their best choice). 5) The current static PS of SenseTime in 2020 is about 61 times, which is higher than the Hang Seng Technology Index/A-share AI. It has a demonstration effect, and this \"demonstration effect\" may have a far-reaching impact.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/034269e5bc2020ed77b44e86f6ff91c9\" tg-width=\"761\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3648778\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b2be8352a2da2e1aeca513d0b204831","relate_stocks":{"00020":"商汤-W"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3648778","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2200717854","content_text":"摘要：申万宏源刘洋团队认为，虽然行业情况并没有发生根本变化，但全球科技和资本市场格局变了。以后，科创板/港股/北交所将承担更多科技力量。2022年1月4日，港股商汤继续逆市大涨，上市之后四连涨。截至发稿，商汤涨幅达10.97%，延续了此前股价三天翻倍的神迹。同时，商汤的优异表现也激励了A股的“AI兄弟”，虹软科技、海康威视、科大讯飞、大华股份等一众“AI概念股”早盘纷纷高开。然而，叠加了元宇宙概念、“AI第一股”名号的商汤，在股价光鲜的背后，却是坎坷的上市历程。上个月，商汤更是因诸多外部不利消息导致上市计划一度搁浅。好在，商汤顶住了压力，到12月20日便已迅速完成了一系列复杂手续，重新调整股份结构，并再次刊发《招股章程》，宣布于12月30日上市，且发行规模和定价区间不变。这时，已有投资者注意到，商汤的基石投资者名单已经发生了重大改变。Pleiad、WT、Focustar Capital、Focustar Fund 和 Hel Ved 等外资基石投资者已相继退出。此后，大量质疑声四起。对于基本面，有投资者在读完招股书后发现，商汤的单个客户占比过高以及存量客户延续性不高，对于商汤收入的可持续性及稳定性发出质疑；也有投资者认为商汤的定制业务占比过高，对商汤业务的成本费用控制能力起疑，担心规模扩增却无法降成本，导致“经营杠杆”变成“经营负杠杆”，使得公司无法盈利。在股价上看，有投资者担心，外部不利因素会导致大量外资投资者流失，同时业务增长前景会受到影响，导致当前的基石投资者在锁定期后推出意愿强烈，导致股价的长期不稳。此外，在流动性方面，还有投资者担心由于基石投资者占大部分份额，会使得公司股价虽在短期稳健趋势强劲，但长期流动性堪忧。然而，上市后的商汤走出了超过多数投资者预期的走势。那么，为何商汤能在一片悲观声中股价气势如虹？对此，申万宏源刘洋团队认为，商汤当前超过较多投资者预期的走势，与目前投资者们更关心股票是否与AI行业有关，是否与元宇宙热点有关的大环境脱不开干系。该团队提及：根据商汤招股说明书，指出“我们已构建用于赋能IoT设备及驱动元宇宙(Metaverse)的多层基础设施，以提升终端使用者体验”，“2016年,……,多年来已为超过450百万部智能手机及超过200个手机应用程序赋能，并成为最大的元宇宙赋能平台之一”）复盘过去一年AI公司从遭遇上市挫折，到目前可以亏损上市的历程，申万宏源刘洋团队总结到，虽行业情况并没有发生根本变化，但全球科技和资本市场格局变了。以后，科创板/港股/北交所将承担更多科技力量。同时，该团队认为，商汤当下超众多投资者预期的走势，可以给投资者带来以下两点启发。1. 2022年AI落地加速的三种机遇AI的碎片化场景落地，使得领军公司分为两种路径，以海康大华为代表的“更低的成本”和商汤、旷视为代表的“更大的模型”。具体来说，商汤、旷视等AI企业选择自研深度学习训练平台，搭建了“大装置”底座——即包含算力、算法、平台和底层训练推理框架完全自研的AI基础设施。首先，在对这两种AI路径进行分析后，申万宏源刘洋团队认为：智慧城市/安防/智能制造环节，仍将是海康威视、大华股份路径的优势行业；手机、医疗等可能商汤、旷视科技的大模型努力尝试的领域，目前AI渗透有待提升的物流、汽车行业则仍需要更多时间验证。对于人工智能行业在2022年的前景，申万宏源刘洋团队认为，AI产业将迎来落地加速的三重机遇：1）成熟的应用场景涌现；2）十四五政策密集催化；3）AI 独角兽上市潮开启。1）机遇一：成熟的应用场景涌现申万宏源刘洋团队认为，当下智能制造、智慧仓储物流、智慧金融、智慧农业、智慧医疗、智能家居等成熟的AI应用场景正在涌现，领军AI 公司已有大量标杆案例。同时，从ROI（投资回报率）上分析，该团队认为，AI行业的高回报可以加速AI产业的普及：以海康威视官方公众号提供的AI案例为计算依据，我们计算客户采购后ROI大多为50%-150%，投资回收期仅为1-2年；根据艾瑞咨询的调研结果，50%的企业AI项目回报周期在1~3年，36%的企业回报周期在0.5~1年。高ROI催化了AI赋能加速普及。2）机遇二：十四五政策密集催化近期，工信部官网密集刊登智能化、信息化相关产业的“十四五”发展规划，其中对人工智能产业提出了多层次发展目标。申万宏源刘洋团队认为：在To G端，十四五规划中包含大量提高政府数字化治理能力的要求，预计将在2022年加快落地；AI也是实现双碳目标的重要手段。对与人工智能有关的政策进行了梳理如下表所示：3）机遇三：AI 独角兽上市潮开启在商汤之后，云从科技、旷视科技、云天励飞、格灵深瞳等AI公司拟于2022年在科创板完成上市；第四范式、创新奇智等AI新锐也已向港交所递交招股书，积极推进上市进程。在此背景下，申万宏源刘洋团队预期，AI独角兽上市潮有望为AI板块带来更高的关注度和估值锚。此外，该团队认为：后人口红利时代，AI有望成为十年以上的高景气赛道；需求爆发增长的条件已经具备，现阶段瓶颈可能在于供给端；行业将获得AI赋能成功案例大量示范效应、十四五大量政策催化、AI独角兽上市潮等三重机遇；重点关注AI企业的落地能力。2. 港股TMT，认知的再评估申万宏源刘洋团队认为，全球科技和资本市场格局的变化，港股可能被低估，未来，港股有望成为科技新的全球资本化港湾。该团队总结到：1）投资者认为香港市场/中国大陆市场不同的投资者成分、估值体系，是阻碍港股科技表现的因素。2）硬科技已A股上市，且属于世界一流。软科技曾经青睐海外上市，因其成长经常并非线性。3）预计未来，商业模式属于无形资产创造价值的，伴随海外上市环境变化，会更多选择港股IPO。4）TMT的“软硬科技”存在产业链联动和传导，“硬科技“的成熟，导致“软科技”产业更成熟。而从国内的视角：便于投资的港股比投向欧美容易。因此，国内投资者去港股投资“软科技“的估值体系，我们预计会和以前不同（之前欧美投资者居多，但港股不是其最优选择）。5）当前商汤的2020年静态PS约61倍，高于恒生科技指数/A股AI，有示范效应，且这种“示范效应”可能会产生深远影响。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"90006":1,"00020":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}