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2022-05-14
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——2023年地方政府新增債務限額預測及使用建議","htmlText":"今年以來，疫情反覆等內外超預期衝擊下，“三重壓力”有所加大，地方債作爲積極財政的重要發力點，新增債務限額維持高位且靠前發力，持續發揮穩增長、補短板、促投資的重要作用。2023年是落實二十大精神的開局之年，中央經濟工作會議強調“突出做好穩增長、穩就業、穩物價工作”，並指出“積極的財政政策要加力提效，保持必要的財政支出強度，優化組合赤字、專項債、貼息等工具”，在經濟恢復的基礎尚不牢固，需求收縮、供給衝擊、預期轉弱三重壓力仍然較大的背景下，地方債新增限額仍應保持較高水平，但考慮到當前基建項目仍然有限、地方政府債務率被動攀升等因素，新增限額不宜設定過高。建議2023年新增一般債務限額0.9萬億左右、新增專項債務限額3.8萬億左右，必要時可繼續依法盤活結存專項債限額，用好用足地方債，力圖實現“在有效支持高質量發展中保障財政可持續和地方政府債務風險可控”的要求。 一、助力突破“強政策、弱修復”困局，地方債需繼續合理擴容 當前地方政府債務風險整體可控，仍有一定舉債空間。近年來，伴隨“開前門”力度不斷加大，地方政府債券規模持續擴容，特別是2020年以來，積極財政不斷髮力，地方政府新增債務限額持續保持較高水平。2022年，在下達3.65萬億新增專項限額的基礎之上，國務院要求盤活2019年以來結存的5000多億的專項債務限額，新增專項債發行規模大幅增加、創下歷史新高，截至2022年11月末，我國地方政府顯性債務規模已超35萬億，地方政府槓桿率也快速上升，近三年年均上升約2個百分點，預計今年年末將繼續擡升2個百分點至29%。中央政府槓桿率明顯低於地方，且增速較緩慢，預計今年年末將擡升1個百分點至21%。整體看，今年年末政府部門槓桿率將上升3個百分點至50%，但仍低於60%的國際警戒線及發達國家、發展中國家槓桿率水平，政府部門尤其是中央政府仍有一定舉債空間。 圖1：2015年以來中央和地方政府債務","listText":"今年以來，疫情反覆等內外超預期衝擊下，“三重壓力”有所加大，地方債作爲積極財政的重要發力點，新增債務限額維持高位且靠前發力，持續發揮穩增長、補短板、促投資的重要作用。2023年是落實二十大精神的開局之年，中央經濟工作會議強調“突出做好穩增長、穩就業、穩物價工作”，並指出“積極的財政政策要加力提效，保持必要的財政支出強度，優化組合赤字、專項債、貼息等工具”，在經濟恢復的基礎尚不牢固，需求收縮、供給衝擊、預期轉弱三重壓力仍然較大的背景下，地方債新增限額仍應保持較高水平，但考慮到當前基建項目仍然有限、地方政府債務率被動攀升等因素，新增限額不宜設定過高。建議2023年新增一般債務限額0.9萬億左右、新增專項債務限額3.8萬億左右，必要時可繼續依法盤活結存專項債限額，用好用足地方債，力圖實現“在有效支持高質量發展中保障財政可持續和地方政府債務風險可控”的要求。 一、助力突破“強政策、弱修復”困局，地方債需繼續合理擴容 當前地方政府債務風險整體可控，仍有一定舉債空間。近年來，伴隨“開前門”力度不斷加大，地方政府債券規模持續擴容，特別是2020年以來，積極財政不斷髮力，地方政府新增債務限額持續保持較高水平。2022年，在下達3.65萬億新增專項限額的基礎之上，國務院要求盤活2019年以來結存的5000多億的專項債務限額，新增專項債發行規模大幅增加、創下歷史新高，截至2022年11月末，我國地方政府顯性債務規模已超35萬億，地方政府槓桿率也快速上升，近三年年均上升約2個百分點，預計今年年末將繼續擡升2個百分點至29%。中央政府槓桿率明顯低於地方，且增速較緩慢，預計今年年末將擡升1個百分點至21%。整體看，今年年末政府部門槓桿率將上升3個百分點至50%，但仍低於60%的國際警戒線及發達國家、發展中國家槓桿率水平，政府部門尤其是中央政府仍有一定舉債空間。 圖1：2015年以來中央和地方政府債務","text":"今年以來，疫情反覆等內外超預期衝擊下，“三重壓力”有所加大，地方債作爲積極財政的重要發力點，新增債務限額維持高位且靠前發力，持續發揮穩增長、補短板、促投資的重要作用。2023年是落實二十大精神的開局之年，中央經濟工作會議強調“突出做好穩增長、穩就業、穩物價工作”，並指出“積極的財政政策要加力提效，保持必要的財政支出強度，優化組合赤字、專項債、貼息等工具”，在經濟恢復的基礎尚不牢固，需求收縮、供給衝擊、預期轉弱三重壓力仍然較大的背景下，地方債新增限額仍應保持較高水平，但考慮到當前基建項目仍然有限、地方政府債務率被動攀升等因素，新增限額不宜設定過高。建議2023年新增一般債務限額0.9萬億左右、新增專項債務限額3.8萬億左右，必要時可繼續依法盤活結存專項債限額，用好用足地方債，力圖實現“在有效支持高質量發展中保障財政可持續和地方政府債務風險可控”的要求。 一、助力突破“強政策、弱修復”困局，地方債需繼續合理擴容 當前地方政府債務風險整體可控，仍有一定舉債空間。近年來，伴隨“開前門”力度不斷加大，地方政府債券規模持續擴容，特別是2020年以來，積極財政不斷髮力，地方政府新增債務限額持續保持較高水平。2022年，在下達3.65萬億新增專項限額的基礎之上，國務院要求盤活2019年以來結存的5000多億的專項債務限額，新增專項債發行規模大幅增加、創下歷史新高，截至2022年11月末，我國地方政府顯性債務規模已超35萬億，地方政府槓桿率也快速上升，近三年年均上升約2個百分點，預計今年年末將繼續擡升2個百分點至29%。中央政府槓桿率明顯低於地方，且增速較緩慢，預計今年年末將擡升1個百分點至21%。整體看，今年年末政府部門槓桿率將上升3個百分點至50%，但仍低於60%的國際警戒線及發達國家、發展中國家槓桿率水平，政府部門尤其是中央政府仍有一定舉債空間。 圖1：2015年以來中央和地方政府債務","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/621080060","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2668,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9969843051,"gmtCreate":1668409696673,"gmtModify":1676538052121,"author":{"id":"4094523315193150","authorId":"4094523315193150","name":"CZUP","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/362836b7c92c3c15fa3fed0787fb55a2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094523315193150","authorIdStr":"4094523315193150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9969843051","repostId":"1125543765","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2908,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9969915002,"gmtCreate":1668314977306,"gmtModify":1676538040665,"author":{"id":"4094523315193150","authorId":"4094523315193150","name":"CZUP","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/362836b7c92c3c15fa3fed0787fb55a2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094523315193150","authorIdStr":"4094523315193150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BB\">$黑莓(BB)$ </a>u","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BB\">$黑莓(BB)$ </a>u","text":"$黑莓(BB)$ u","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/083155763c4b25c72d19ff8372887d69","width":"1242","height":"2448"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9969915002","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3786,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988757182,"gmtCreate":1666837728146,"gmtModify":1676537814343,"author":{"id":"4094523315193150","authorId":"4094523315193150","name":"CZUP","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/362836b7c92c3c15fa3fed0787fb55a2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094523315193150","authorIdStr":"4094523315193150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>123","listText":"<a 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