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11-20

$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$ [白眼]

11-20

$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$ [流泪]

2022-12-26

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Big reversal, northbound funds bucked the market and increased their positions, increasing their holdings in these three industries in a week!

2022-12-11

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Fed dove ≠ U.S. stocks rise? The market is beginning to worry about a recession storm

2022-12-02

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Foreign media headlines | U.S. core PCE still far exceeds the Fed's target, and there is little hope of a soft landing

2022-11-18

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Masayoshi Son announces farewell

2022-11-17

[微笑]

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-10-27

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2022-10-24

😶

Hang Seng Technology Index fell more than 5%, and technology stocks continued to fall

2022-10-19

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@CrystalRose:These were the Bank drawdowns during the Global Fin crisis (2008-09). Imagine these Banks and their stocks surviving (and coming back great lengths) despite such huge drawdowns and the financial collapse. This is not 2008-09 so things may not get as bad, I think. Unless of course there is a global Bond market implosion.History repetes.. if you been in the markets for 50 years like me... upgrades starting to hit new wires. BAC $40 upgrades.. going head 36 to 38 next few days

2022-10-18

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The market is betting on the Fed's early interest rate cut. Is it wise to buy the bottom in advance?

2022-10-13

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Fed meeting minutes: Recently reaching restrictive interest rates, more worried about too little rate hike

2022-10-07

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10,000-word exclusive interview with Arm CEO: Why "harvest" global technology giants?

2022-10-05

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Hong Kong stocks open | The Hang Seng Index rose more than 4%, and technology and Internet stocks opened higher across the board

2022-09-05

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2022-09-05

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Apple and Huawei's "sky-breaking" technology will bring up a 6 trillion market

2022-09-04

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Chase hot stocks or invest in "black holes", remember to stay away from such stocks

2022-08-25

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HKEx cancels early trading as Typhoon Signal No. 8 remains valid

2022-08-22

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This week's preview | Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting is coming! Tesla Stock Split Three

2022-08-20

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US STOCKS-Wall Street Ends Down As Yields Rise; Indexes Post Weekly Losses

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/YINN\">$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$ </a>&nbsp;[白眼]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/YINN\">$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$ </a>&nbsp;[白眼]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$ [白眼]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ab4c4e978d04542c29d7bb43e98745a6","width":"894","height":"1564"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/502064103338904","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":502063573049600,"gmtCreate":1763583759420,"gmtModify":1763583762158,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090574021972690","idStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/YINN\">$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$ </a>&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/YINN\">$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$ 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[流泪]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/365afa978f8bc0bf1824141a315ef73f","width":"894","height":"1564"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/502063573049600","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9925872799,"gmtCreate":1672006563612,"gmtModify":1676538619867,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090574021972690","idStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9925872799","repostId":"1154178439","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154178439","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"数据宝——中国股市大数据新媒体领先品牌，让您用手机也能从海量数据中获得有用的决策信息支持，数据是个宝，炒股不烦恼！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"数据宝","id":"41","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/462b2cc98f70412d82b85c0c4f356ccc"},"pubTimestamp":1671954682,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154178439?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-25 15:51","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Big reversal, northbound funds bucked the market and increased their positions, increasing their holdings in these three industries in a week!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154178439","media":"数据宝","summary":"北上资金逆市加仓，美容护理、通信、食品饮料行业成“香饽饽”。A股市场本周震荡下跌，上证指数跌破60日均线，一周累计跌3.85%；深证成指累计跌3.94%，创业板指累计跌3.69%。市场下跌的同时北上资","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Funds from the north increased their positions against the market trend, and the beauty care, communications, food and beverage industries became \"sweet cakes\".</p><p>The A-share market fluctuated and fell this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below the 60-day moving average, with a cumulative decline of 3.85% in one week; The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 3.94%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 3.69%.</p><p>While the market fell, northbound funds increased their positions in the opposite direction. According to the statistics of Securities Times Databao, the net inflow of funds going north this week was 4.353 billion yuan; Among them, the Shanghai stock market is significantly better than the Shenzhen stock market, with a net inflow of 4.92 billion yuan from Shanghai Stock Connect and a net outflow of 566 million yuan from Shenzhen Stock Connect.</p><p><b>Hog prices fall</b></p><p><b>Individual stocks in the industry chain were reduced by northbound funds</b></p><p>According to the statistics of data treasure, a total of 10 industries have increased the shareholding of capital from the north, and the beauty care, communication, food and beverage industries have increased their positions more, and the number of shares held has increased by more than 1% week-on-week. Some cyclical industries have been continuously reduced by northbound funds. The shareholdings of nine industries, including coal, chemicals, public utilities, and power equipment, have continuously declined in the past three weeks.<b>Among them, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery have the largest reduction in positions, with a cumulative decrease of 6.92% in shareholdings.</b></p><p>The beauty care industry was favored by northbound funds this week, with its shareholding increasing by 4.46%. The beauty care industry also outperformed the broader market this week, with the industry index falling slightly by 0.2%.<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301009\">Reliable Shares</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300957\">Bettany</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300896\">Amic</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002511\">Zhongshun Jierou</a></b>The cumulative increase in a week was among the top, all exceeding 3%.</p><p><b>Zhongshun Jierou</b>This week, the shareholding of capital from the north increased by more than 5 million shares, ranking first in the industry, with an increase of 10.57% from last week. The company recently released a summary of the stock incentive plan (draft). The target operating income from 2023 to 2025 is not less than 10 billion yuan, 11 billion yuan, and 12.1 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 9.29%, 20.22%, and 32.24% respectively compared with 2021, demonstrating The company's confidence in future development.</p><p>The Donghai Securities Research Report believes that looking forward to 2023, under the catalysis of the \"New Ten Articles\" of the epidemic policy, superimposed on the future trend of epidemic optimization expectations, it is believed that the fundamentals of the industry will recover, the leading domestic cosmetics products are expected to rise, and domestic substitution will accelerate; The offline consumption scene of medical beauty has recovered, and the subdivision track has developed rapidly. Leading companies are expected to usher in performance recovery.</p><p>Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery have recently been reduced by northbound funds, among which the holdings of pig industry-related stocks have dropped significantly month-on-month, including<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/605296\">Shennong Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002567\">Tang Ren God</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002100\">Tiankang Biotech</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002157\">Zhengbang Technology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300498\">Wen's Shares</a></b>Individual stocks fell by more than 15% month-on-month. Since late October, the price of live pigs has been declining continuously. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the price of live pigs (external three yuan) in mid-December was 18.2 yuan/kg, a new low in the second half of this year, down 17.3% from early December.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ddc3c9ccc90112546473a4247948146\" tg-width=\"892\" tg-height=\"804\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Two major liquor leaders received funds from the north</b></p><p><b>Net inflow exceeds 3 billion yuan</b></p><p>According to data statistics, a total of 35 shares were listed on the active list of capital transactions in the north this week; In terms of industries, electrical equipment, food and beverage stocks were actively traded this week, with a total transaction volume of more than 10 billion yuan. Food and beverage and non-bank financial stocks led the net inflow, while electrical equipment and electronics stocks were reduced by northbound funds.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">Wuliangye</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a></b>The two major liquor leaders occupy the first and second places in the net purchase amount of actively traded stocks, respectively, with a cumulative net inflow of 2.127 billion yuan and 1.305 billion yuan in a week, respectively, and these two stocks have received net inflow of funds from the north for six consecutive trading days.</p><p>Since November, the liquor index has been rising continuously, with a cumulative increase of 34.7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000686\">Northeast Securities</a>It is believed that the liquor sector will show a good growth trend in 2022, and the valuation of core liquor companies will gradually fall from the high level at the beginning of the year. Looking forward to next year, the development model of high-end liquor volume and price increase is clear, and the performance is certain. The pace of investment expansion of sub-high-end liquor is accelerating, and channel power and brand power have become the key to success.</p><p>Top five net inflows this week<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002603\">Yiling Pharmaceutical</a></b>It is also worth noting that the stock fell by 20.03% in a week, and northbound funds increased their positions against the market, with a net inflow of 948 million yuan.</p><p><b>Yiling Pharmaceutical</b>It was announced on Thursday that the company has never announced the \"Lianhua Qingwen Epidemic Prevention Prescription\" as listed in the article; We reserve the right to pursue the relevant legal responsibilities of the infringer who makes and spreads rumors. The formula of \"Lianhua Qingwen\" is an invention patent of the company, which is different from the \"formula\" listed in the article in medicinal flavor composition, prescription amount and preparation process.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b22014fe0cd68b83f4a50293f942b68\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"964\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to data statistics, according to the increase in positions, there are 24 shares with a month-on-month increase of more than 100% in the number of shares held this week; Excluding the sub-new shares listed this year, the largest month-on-month increase is<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002307\">Beixinluqiao</a></b>, Beishang Capital recently held 563,900 shares, and the number of shares held increased by 907.76% from the previous month. Followed by<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688690\">Nanotechnology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/605399\">Chenguang New Materials</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002424\">Guizhou Bailing</a></b>, increasing by 271.52%, 259.25%, and 258.99% respectively.</p><p>21 shares were significantly reduced by northbound funds, and their shareholdings all fell by more than 50% month-on-month.<b>Dongfang Electric Heating, Xingyuan Environment, Calabash Baby</b>The shareholdings of Beishang Capital fell by 85.4%, 85.19%, and 76.43% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baeeba082b85a98dfaecc62e293890b2\" tg-width=\"724\" tg-height=\"994\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Disclaimer: All information contents of Databao do not constitute investment advice. The stock market is risky, so investment should be cautious.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Big reversal, northbound funds bucked the market and increased their positions, increasing their holdings in these three industries in a week!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBig reversal, northbound funds bucked the market and increased their positions, increasing their holdings in these three industries in a week!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/41\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/462b2cc98f70412d82b85c0c4f356ccc);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">数据宝 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-25 15:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Funds from the north increased their positions against the market trend, and the beauty care, communications, food and beverage industries became \"sweet cakes\".</p><p>The A-share market fluctuated and fell this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below the 60-day moving average, with a cumulative decline of 3.85% in one week; The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 3.94%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 3.69%.</p><p>While the market fell, northbound funds increased their positions in the opposite direction. According to the statistics of Securities Times Databao, the net inflow of funds going north this week was 4.353 billion yuan; Among them, the Shanghai stock market is significantly better than the Shenzhen stock market, with a net inflow of 4.92 billion yuan from Shanghai Stock Connect and a net outflow of 566 million yuan from Shenzhen Stock Connect.</p><p><b>Hog prices fall</b></p><p><b>Individual stocks in the industry chain were reduced by northbound funds</b></p><p>According to the statistics of data treasure, a total of 10 industries have increased the shareholding of capital from the north, and the beauty care, communication, food and beverage industries have increased their positions more, and the number of shares held has increased by more than 1% week-on-week. Some cyclical industries have been continuously reduced by northbound funds. The shareholdings of nine industries, including coal, chemicals, public utilities, and power equipment, have continuously declined in the past three weeks.<b>Among them, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery have the largest reduction in positions, with a cumulative decrease of 6.92% in shareholdings.</b></p><p>The beauty care industry was favored by northbound funds this week, with its shareholding increasing by 4.46%. The beauty care industry also outperformed the broader market this week, with the industry index falling slightly by 0.2%.<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301009\">Reliable Shares</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300957\">Bettany</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300896\">Amic</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002511\">Zhongshun Jierou</a></b>The cumulative increase in a week was among the top, all exceeding 3%.</p><p><b>Zhongshun Jierou</b>This week, the shareholding of capital from the north increased by more than 5 million shares, ranking first in the industry, with an increase of 10.57% from last week. The company recently released a summary of the stock incentive plan (draft). The target operating income from 2023 to 2025 is not less than 10 billion yuan, 11 billion yuan, and 12.1 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 9.29%, 20.22%, and 32.24% respectively compared with 2021, demonstrating The company's confidence in future development.</p><p>The Donghai Securities Research Report believes that looking forward to 2023, under the catalysis of the \"New Ten Articles\" of the epidemic policy, superimposed on the future trend of epidemic optimization expectations, it is believed that the fundamentals of the industry will recover, the leading domestic cosmetics products are expected to rise, and domestic substitution will accelerate; The offline consumption scene of medical beauty has recovered, and the subdivision track has developed rapidly. Leading companies are expected to usher in performance recovery.</p><p>Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery have recently been reduced by northbound funds, among which the holdings of pig industry-related stocks have dropped significantly month-on-month, including<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/605296\">Shennong Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002567\">Tang Ren God</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002100\">Tiankang Biotech</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002157\">Zhengbang Technology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300498\">Wen's Shares</a></b>Individual stocks fell by more than 15% month-on-month. Since late October, the price of live pigs has been declining continuously. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the price of live pigs (external three yuan) in mid-December was 18.2 yuan/kg, a new low in the second half of this year, down 17.3% from early December.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ddc3c9ccc90112546473a4247948146\" tg-width=\"892\" tg-height=\"804\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Two major liquor leaders received funds from the north</b></p><p><b>Net inflow exceeds 3 billion yuan</b></p><p>According to data statistics, a total of 35 shares were listed on the active list of capital transactions in the north this week; In terms of industries, electrical equipment, food and beverage stocks were actively traded this week, with a total transaction volume of more than 10 billion yuan. Food and beverage and non-bank financial stocks led the net inflow, while electrical equipment and electronics stocks were reduced by northbound funds.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">Wuliangye</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a></b>The two major liquor leaders occupy the first and second places in the net purchase amount of actively traded stocks, respectively, with a cumulative net inflow of 2.127 billion yuan and 1.305 billion yuan in a week, respectively, and these two stocks have received net inflow of funds from the north for six consecutive trading days.</p><p>Since November, the liquor index has been rising continuously, with a cumulative increase of 34.7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000686\">Northeast Securities</a>It is believed that the liquor sector will show a good growth trend in 2022, and the valuation of core liquor companies will gradually fall from the high level at the beginning of the year. Looking forward to next year, the development model of high-end liquor volume and price increase is clear, and the performance is certain. The pace of investment expansion of sub-high-end liquor is accelerating, and channel power and brand power have become the key to success.</p><p>Top five net inflows this week<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002603\">Yiling Pharmaceutical</a></b>It is also worth noting that the stock fell by 20.03% in a week, and northbound funds increased their positions against the market, with a net inflow of 948 million yuan.</p><p><b>Yiling Pharmaceutical</b>It was announced on Thursday that the company has never announced the \"Lianhua Qingwen Epidemic Prevention Prescription\" as listed in the article; We reserve the right to pursue the relevant legal responsibilities of the infringer who makes and spreads rumors. The formula of \"Lianhua Qingwen\" is an invention patent of the company, which is different from the \"formula\" listed in the article in medicinal flavor composition, prescription amount and preparation process.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b22014fe0cd68b83f4a50293f942b68\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"964\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to data statistics, according to the increase in positions, there are 24 shares with a month-on-month increase of more than 100% in the number of shares held this week; Excluding the sub-new shares listed this year, the largest month-on-month increase is<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002307\">Beixinluqiao</a></b>, Beishang Capital recently held 563,900 shares, and the number of shares held increased by 907.76% from the previous month. Followed by<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688690\">Nanotechnology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/605399\">Chenguang New Materials</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002424\">Guizhou Bailing</a></b>, increasing by 271.52%, 259.25%, and 258.99% respectively.</p><p>21 shares were significantly reduced by northbound funds, and their shareholdings all fell by more than 50% month-on-month.<b>Dongfang Electric Heating, Xingyuan Environment, Calabash Baby</b>The shareholdings of Beishang Capital fell by 85.4%, 85.19%, and 76.43% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baeeba082b85a98dfaecc62e293890b2\" tg-width=\"724\" tg-height=\"994\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Disclaimer: All information contents of Databao do not constitute investment advice. The stock market is risky, so investment should be cautious.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8642475395bb363eacb86148917e7b","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154178439","content_text":"北上资金逆市加仓，美容护理、通信、食品饮料行业成“香饽饽”。A股市场本周震荡下跌，上证指数跌破60日均线，一周累计跌3.85%；深证成指累计跌3.94%，创业板指累计跌3.69%。市场下跌的同时北上资金反向加仓。证券时报·数据宝统计，本周北上资金净流入43.53亿元；其中沪市明显优于深市，沪股通净流入49.2亿元，深股通净流出5.66亿元。生猪价格下跌产业链个股遭北上资金减持数据宝统计，共10个行业获得北上资金持股量增长，美容护理、通信、食品饮料行业加仓较多，持股数量周环比增幅超过1%。部分周期行业遭到北上资金连续减持，煤炭、化工、公用事业、电力设备等9个行业近三周持股量连续下降，其中农林牧渔减仓幅度最多，持股量累计下降6.92%。美容护理行业本周获得北上资金的青睐，持股量增长4.46%。本周美容护理行业表现亦跑赢大盘，行业指数微跌0.2%，可靠股份、贝泰妮、爱美客、中顺洁柔一周累计涨幅居前，均超过3%。中顺洁柔本周获北上资金持股量增长超500万股，居行业中增长首位，环比上周增长10.57%。公司近期发布股票激励计划（草案）摘要，目标2023-2025年营业收入分别不低于100亿元、110亿元、121亿元，相比2021年分别增长9.29%、20.22%、32.24%，彰显公司对未来发展的信心。东海证券研报认为，展望2023年，在疫情政策“新十条”的催化下，叠加未来趋势性的疫情优化预期，认为将迎来行业基本面的复苏，化妆品国货龙头有望崛起，国产替代加速；医美线下消费场景恢复，细分赛道快速发展，龙头企业有望迎来业绩修复。农林牧渔近期遭到北上资金减持，其中猪产业相关个股持股量环比降幅较多，包括神农集团、唐人神、天康生物、正邦科技、温氏股份等个股环比降幅在15%以上。自10月下旬开始，生猪价格连续下降。根据国家统计局数据，12月中旬生猪（外三元）价格为18.2元/千克，创今年下半年新低，环比12月上旬下跌17.3%。两大白酒龙头获北上资金净流入超30亿元数据宝统计，本周共有35股登上北上资金成交活跃榜；所属行业来看，电气设备、食品饮料股本周资金成交活跃，合计买卖总额在100亿元以上。食品饮料、非银金融股净流入居前，电气设备、电子股则遭到北上资金减持。五粮液、贵州茅台两大白酒龙头分别占据成交活跃股净买入金额的第一位、第二位，一周累计净流入金额分别为21.27亿元、13.05亿元，且这2股均已连续6个交易日获北上资金净流入。11月以来，白酒指数已连续上涨，累计涨幅达34.7%。东北证券认为，2022年白酒板块呈现出良好增长态势，核心酒企估值从年初高位逐渐回落。展望明年，高端白酒量稳价升的发展模式清晰，业绩确定性强。次高端白酒招商扩张步伐加快，渠道力和品牌力成为制胜关键。本周净流入前五的以岭药业亦值得关注，该股一周下跌20.03%，北上资金逆市加仓，净流入达到9.48亿元。以岭药业周四发布消息，公司从未公布如文章所列“连花清瘟防疫方”；保留追究侵权人制造、传播谣言的人相关法律责任的权利。“连花清瘟”配方系公司发明专利，该配方与文章所列“配方”在药味组成、处方量和制备工艺都不同。数据宝统计，增仓幅度来看，本周持股数环比增幅在100%以上的共有24股；剔除今年上市的次新股，环比增幅最大的是北新路桥，北上资金最新持有56.39万股，持股数环比增长了907.76 %。其次是纳微科技、晨光新材、贵州百灵，分别增长271.52%、259.25%、258.99%。21股遭北上资金大幅减持，持股量环比降幅均在50%以上，东方电热、兴源环境、葫芦娃的北上资金持股量分别下降85.4%、85.19%、76.43%。声明：数据宝所有资讯内容不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2899,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929525583,"gmtCreate":1670712319142,"gmtModify":1676538419804,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090574021972690","idStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929525583","repostId":"1135427428","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135427428","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1670641879,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1135427428?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-10 11:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Fed dove ≠ U.S. stocks rise? The market is beginning to worry about a recession storm","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135427428","media":"智通财经网","summary":"有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。过去两个月里，投资者无视各种警告——从40年来最严重的美债收益率曲线倒挂，到2022年油","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Persistent warnings that the U.S. economy is slipping into recession have finally touched a nerve on Wall Street. Persistent warnings that the U.S. economy is slipping into recession have finally touched a nerve on Wall Street. In the past two months, investors have ignored all kinds of warnings-from the worst U.S. bond yield curve inversion in 40 years to the collapse of a sharp rise in oil prices in 2022; But investors now appear to be betting that the biggest threat to risky assets is an impending slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>Cyclical stocks sent the S&P 500 down 3.4% this week after it failed to stay above its average price over the past 200 days. Although optimism that the Federal Reserve will slow down the pace of rate hike has pushed U.S. stocks up 14% since mid-October, investor sentiment has now become gloomy. They are worried that if the Federal Reserve really slows down the pace of rate hike, it will signal that the U.S. economy is in a downturn.</p><p>There are already signs that U.S. economic growth is slowing amid aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve. The U.S. service sector shrank last month; While the labor market remains strong, there has been some weakness, with a recent increase in initial claims for unemployment benefits. Meanwhile, inflation may have peaked, but is still high enough to keep the Fed on its toes, raising the risk of excessive tightening.</p><p>Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, said: \"We will move from'bad data is good news' to'bad data is bad news' because it is a signal that the economy is moving faster and worse than most people expect. speed weakening.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c916ab1d72ccba5e0bd166e03aeef039\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Markets have begun to see a stream of dismal economic news as bad news rather than as reason for upside from the prospect of Fed policy easing. At the same time, inflation in the United States remains high-as evidenced by the higher-than-expected growth rate of PPI in the United States in November. Taken together, this is enough to suppress the rally since the fall.</p><p>Energy stocks have led the decline since stocks peaked on the last day of November, unlike the previous three sell-offs in 2022, when rising inflation spurred share prices for raw material producers. More economically sensitive companies, such as financial firms and consumer goods manufacturers, lagged in December.</p><p>The shift is also evident in the fixed income space. Earlier in 2022, when inflation scares raged, bonds plunged in all three instances when the S&P 500 fell at least 10% from its peak. Now, bonds have begun to regain their position as a recession hedge. Long-term U.S. Treasury Bond prices rose on Wednesday, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield falling below 3.5%, its lowest level since September last year. The iShares 20 + Year U.S. Treasury Bond ETF has gained 9% in the past three weeks.</p><p>Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said: \"If you're buying stocks based on the idea that interest rates will be cut sometime in the future, unfortunately that means economic weakness will also come sometime in the future. So when you make a wish, be careful.\"</p><p>In recent days, this message has been backed by executives at major Wall Street banks, whose CEOs have been unanimously pessimistic about the outlook for U.S. economic growth and corporate earnings. Even sell-side analysts, who tend to tout the assets they sell, have been predicting a declining 2023 in a decidedly pessimistic manner. The average forecast of strategists tracked by the media is that the S&P 500 will close at 4,009 next year, their most pessimistic forecast since at least 1999.</p><p>Positions and trading patterns also show that investors are moving away from risky assets. Investors pulled out of global stocks at the fastest pace in five months, selling $35 billion in the past three weeks after they had hoarded $23 billion a week ago, according to EPFR data. The signal of volatility amplitude also reinforces the transient nature of the recent rally, reflecting the situation before the end of the rally in March and August.</p><p>The level of technical indicators that stimulated buying in November fell back this week. The S&P 500 failed to hold above its 200-day moving average before falling below pullback/retracement levels that helped bulls.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0366d1ab17554afa57bf8480fcf4ca9\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Further complicating matters, November's stock market rally triggered the fastest easing of financial conditions since March 2020, according to an indicator from Goldman Sachs Group Inc., casting doubt on the Fed's ability to pivot accommodative policy starting next year.</p><p>After being trapped by the intensity and staying power of inflationary pressures, Fed policymakers appear determined to peak rate hike to around 5%. That's bad news for an economy that will contract sometime next year.</p><p>Justin Burgin, head of equity research at Ameriprise Financial, said: \"There is still a lot of pain to go through. We hardly see the lag effect of this fastest rate hike in history.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed dove ≠ U.S. stocks rise? The market is beginning to worry about a recession storm</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed dove ≠ U.S. stocks rise? The market is beginning to worry about a recession storm\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-10 11:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Persistent warnings that the U.S. economy is slipping into recession have finally touched a nerve on Wall Street. Persistent warnings that the U.S. economy is slipping into recession have finally touched a nerve on Wall Street. In the past two months, investors have ignored all kinds of warnings-from the worst U.S. bond yield curve inversion in 40 years to the collapse of a sharp rise in oil prices in 2022; But investors now appear to be betting that the biggest threat to risky assets is an impending slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>Cyclical stocks sent the S&P 500 down 3.4% this week after it failed to stay above its average price over the past 200 days. Although optimism that the Federal Reserve will slow down the pace of rate hike has pushed U.S. stocks up 14% since mid-October, investor sentiment has now become gloomy. They are worried that if the Federal Reserve really slows down the pace of rate hike, it will signal that the U.S. economy is in a downturn.</p><p>There are already signs that U.S. economic growth is slowing amid aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve. The U.S. service sector shrank last month; While the labor market remains strong, there has been some weakness, with a recent increase in initial claims for unemployment benefits. Meanwhile, inflation may have peaked, but is still high enough to keep the Fed on its toes, raising the risk of excessive tightening.</p><p>Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, said: \"We will move from'bad data is good news' to'bad data is bad news' because it is a signal that the economy is moving faster and worse than most people expect. speed weakening.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c916ab1d72ccba5e0bd166e03aeef039\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Markets have begun to see a stream of dismal economic news as bad news rather than as reason for upside from the prospect of Fed policy easing. At the same time, inflation in the United States remains high-as evidenced by the higher-than-expected growth rate of PPI in the United States in November. Taken together, this is enough to suppress the rally since the fall.</p><p>Energy stocks have led the decline since stocks peaked on the last day of November, unlike the previous three sell-offs in 2022, when rising inflation spurred share prices for raw material producers. More economically sensitive companies, such as financial firms and consumer goods manufacturers, lagged in December.</p><p>The shift is also evident in the fixed income space. Earlier in 2022, when inflation scares raged, bonds plunged in all three instances when the S&P 500 fell at least 10% from its peak. Now, bonds have begun to regain their position as a recession hedge. Long-term U.S. Treasury Bond prices rose on Wednesday, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield falling below 3.5%, its lowest level since September last year. The iShares 20 + Year U.S. Treasury Bond ETF has gained 9% in the past three weeks.</p><p>Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said: \"If you're buying stocks based on the idea that interest rates will be cut sometime in the future, unfortunately that means economic weakness will also come sometime in the future. So when you make a wish, be careful.\"</p><p>In recent days, this message has been backed by executives at major Wall Street banks, whose CEOs have been unanimously pessimistic about the outlook for U.S. economic growth and corporate earnings. Even sell-side analysts, who tend to tout the assets they sell, have been predicting a declining 2023 in a decidedly pessimistic manner. The average forecast of strategists tracked by the media is that the S&P 500 will close at 4,009 next year, their most pessimistic forecast since at least 1999.</p><p>Positions and trading patterns also show that investors are moving away from risky assets. Investors pulled out of global stocks at the fastest pace in five months, selling $35 billion in the past three weeks after they had hoarded $23 billion a week ago, according to EPFR data. The signal of volatility amplitude also reinforces the transient nature of the recent rally, reflecting the situation before the end of the rally in March and August.</p><p>The level of technical indicators that stimulated buying in November fell back this week. The S&P 500 failed to hold above its 200-day moving average before falling below pullback/retracement levels that helped bulls.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0366d1ab17554afa57bf8480fcf4ca9\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Further complicating matters, November's stock market rally triggered the fastest easing of financial conditions since March 2020, according to an indicator from Goldman Sachs Group Inc., casting doubt on the Fed's ability to pivot accommodative policy starting next year.</p><p>After being trapped by the intensity and staying power of inflationary pressures, Fed policymakers appear determined to peak rate hike to around 5%. That's bad news for an economy that will contract sometime next year.</p><p>Justin Burgin, head of equity research at Ameriprise Financial, said: \"There is still a lot of pain to go through. We hardly see the lag effect of this fastest rate hike in history.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/845337.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e90f0093c95026e18203fb8d91b976d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/845337.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1135427428","content_text":"有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。过去两个月里，投资者无视各种警告——从40年来最严重的美债收益率曲线倒挂，到2022年油价大幅上涨的破灭;但投资者现在似乎开始押注风险资产面临的最大威胁是经济增长即将放缓。周期性股票导致标普500指数本周下跌3.4%，此前该指数未能维持在过去200天的平均价格之上。尽管自10月中旬以来，对美联储将放慢加息步伐的乐观情绪曾推动美国股市上涨14%，但投资者的情绪现在已经变得阴沉起来，他们担心美联储果真放慢加息步伐，将标志着美国经济陷入低迷。已经有迹象表明，在美联储激进的紧缩政策下，美国经济增长正在放缓。美国服务业上月出现萎缩;尽管劳动力市场依然强劲，但也出现了一些疲软，最近首续请失业金人数增加。与此同时，通胀可能已经见顶，但仍高到足以让美联储保持警惕，增加了过度紧缩的风险。Academy Securities宏观策略主管Peter Tchir表示:“我们将从‘坏数据就是好消息’转变成‘坏数据就是坏消息’，因为这是一个信号，表明经济正在以比大多数人预期的更快、更糟的速度走弱。”市场已经开始将一连串令人沮丧的经济消息视为坏消息，而不是将其视为美联储放宽政策前景带来的上涨理由。与此同时，美国通胀依然居高不下——美国11月PPI增速超预期就是明证。综合来看，这足以打压秋季以来的涨势。自股市在11月最后一天见顶以来，能源股领跌，这与2022年的前三次抛售不同，当时通胀加剧刺激了对原材料生产商的股价。对经济更为敏感的公司，如金融公司和消费品制造商，在12月份的表现较为滞后。这种转变在固定收益领域也很明显。在2022年早些时候，当通胀恐慌肆虐时，标普500指数从峰值下跌至少10%的三次情况中，债券都出现了暴跌。现在，债券已经开始恢复其作为经济衰退对冲的地位。周三，长期美国国债价格上涨，30年期美国国债收益率跌至3.5%以下，这是去年9月以来的最低水平。iShares 20年期以上美国国债ETF在过去三周上涨了9%。Interactive Brokers首席策略师Steve Sosnick表示:“如果你是基于未来某个时候会降息的想法来购买股票，不幸的是，这意味着经济疲软也会在未来某个时候到来。所以你许愿的时候一定要小心。”最近几天，这一信息得到了华尔街大行高管的支持，华尔街大行的首席执行官们一致对美国经济增长和企业盈利前景持悲观态度。即使是倾向于吹捧自己销售的资产的卖方分析师，也一直在明显悲观地预测，2023年将出现下跌。媒体追踪的策略师的平均预测是，标普500指数明年将收于4009点，这是他们至少自1999年以来最悲观的预测。仓位和交易模式也显示出投资者正在远离风险资产。EPFR的数据显示，投资者以五个月来最快的速度撤出全球股市，在过去三周抛售了350亿美元，而一周前他们还囤积了230亿美元。波动幅度的信号也强化了近期涨势的短暂性，反映了如3月和8月涨势结束前的情况。11月曾刺激买盘的技术指标水平本周出现回落。标普500指数未能守住200日移动均线上方，随后跌穿为多头提供帮助的回撤水平。让事情进一步复杂化的是，根据高盛集团的一项指标，11月的股市上涨引发了自2020年3月以来金融状况最快的宽松，这让人们对美联储从明年开始转向宽松政策的能力产生了怀疑。在被通胀压力的强度和持久力所困后，美联储政策制定者似乎决心将加息到5%左右的峰值。这对于明年某个时候将出现收缩的经济来说是个坏消息。Ameriprise Financial股票研究主管Justin Burgin表示:“还有很多痛苦要经历。我们几乎没有看到这次历史上最快加息的滞后效应。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965291211,"gmtCreate":1669953843433,"gmtModify":1676538277653,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090574021972690","idStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965291211","repostId":"2288839109","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288839109","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1669930251,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288839109?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-02 05:30","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Foreign media headlines | U.S. core PCE still far exceeds the Fed's target, and there is little hope of a soft landing","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288839109","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"　　10月美国一项基准通胀指标——核心PCE同比上涨5%，同比升幅6%，仍远高于美联储2%的目标，美联储通胀降温但经济不衰退的希望仍然渺茫。美联储主席鲍威尔本周强调，核心PCE是他认为更能准确反映通胀走向的指标。　　在截至11月19日当周，美国持续申领失业救济人数增加5.7万人，至160万人，为一年来最大增幅。　　美国商务部周四发布的数据显示，10月份个人储蓄占可支配收入之比降至2.3%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. The U.S. core PCE far exceeds the Fed's 2% target, and the hope of a soft landing is still slim</b><b>2. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States has risen to the highest since February, making it more difficult to re-find employment</b><b>3. The U.S. savings rate fell to the lowest level since 2005 in October, continued inflation and Fed rate hike hit a double blow</b><b>4. Chicago Fed appoints former US Obama administration adviser Goolsbee as its new president</b><b>5. Credit Suisse's stock price hit the longest losing streak in history and has fallen 66% this year</b><b>6. UK house prices fall more than expected, mortgage interest rates soar, curbing demand</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b26f4dcea8cd92793b55e49bafa9f8d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>U.S. core PCE far exceeds Fed's 2% target, hope of soft landing remains slim</b></p><p>In October, the core PCE, a benchmark inflation indicator in the United States, rose 5% year-on-year and 6% year-on-year, still far higher than the Fed's 2% target. The hope of the Fed's inflation cooling but the economy not declining is still slim.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Thursday showed that the personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) excluding food and energy increased by 0.2% in October compared with October, a lower-than-expected increase. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized this week that the core PCE is what he believes is an indicator that more accurately reflects the direction of inflation.</p><p>Core PCE rose 5% year-on-year, and the increase in September was revised upward to 5.2%.</p><p>The overall PCE rose 0.3% month-on-month and 6% year-on-year for the third consecutive month, still well above the Fed's 2% target.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bd89a1ca05a83b77f9ce74a93c3892\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>U.S. unemployment claims continue to rise to the highest since February, making it more difficult to re-find jobs</b></p><p>The number of people claiming continuing unemployment benefits in the United States rose to the highest level since February, indicating that unemployed Americans are struggling to find new jobs in a cooling labor market.</p><p>In the week ending November 19, the number of continuing U.S. claims for unemployment benefits increased by 57,000 to 1.6 million, the largest increase in a year.</p><p>Data from the U.S. Labor Department on Thursday showed that initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 16,000 to 225,000 in the week ending Nov. 26. The median estimate for economists polled by Bloomberg was 235,000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee6f67b8dab72d003d6a36b4735a6092\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>U.S. savings rate fell to lowest level since 2005 in October, double whammy of persistent inflation and Fed rate hike</b></p><p>Americans are saving at their lowest rate since 2005, highlighting that inflation and rising borrowing costs are weakening households' financial buffers.</p><p>Data released Thursday by the U.S. Commerce Department showed that personal savings as a percentage of disposable income fell to 2.3% in October. The report also showed that inflation-adjusted spending remained strong despite a slight cooling in inflation.</p><p>With the double whammy of persistent inflation and the Federal Reserve's rate hike, it is difficult for U.S. consumer spending to fall. Most representatively, credit card consumption increased, and the year-on-year increase in U.S. household debt in the third quarter reached the highest since 2008.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d525cc42899299aa4b8612a0f9436181\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Chicago Fed names former Obama administration adviser Goolsbee as new president</b></p><p>The Chicago Fed has appointed Austan Goolsbee, an economist who served as an adviser to former President Barack Obama, as its new president. The current president Evans will retire in January next year.</p><p>The Chicago Fed said in an email statement on Thursday that Goolsbee, 53, will take office on January 9th. He is currently a professor of economics at the Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago. Goolsby was once the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers of the United States and the youngest cabinet member of President Barack Obama's cabinet.</p><p>Evans has been at the helm of the Chicago Fed for 15 years, and for most of his tenure, he has been one of the Fed's most dovish policymakers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25334e85cba6df35ddcc81c2f9c1e561\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Credit Suisse shares hit longest losing streak in history, down 66% this year</b></p><p>Credit Suisse Group's share price fell for the 13th consecutive day, setting the longest losing streak in history. The Swiss bank is in deep trouble. After years of scandals and mismanagement, the capital raising plan has further impacted its share price.</p><p>Credit Suisse closed down 6.1% on Thursday to a record low of $3.08. Since November 23rd, the share price has dropped by about 21%, when the bank said that its key wealth management business suffered a large outflow of funds, and said that it might suffer another major loss in the fourth quarter, reaching 1.5 billion Swiss francs (1.6 billion US dollars).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a348a366bc39d591cfb5fb19987fb1ac\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>UK house prices fall more than expected, soaring mortgage rates dampen demand</b></p><p>British mortgage lender Nationwide Building Society said that after soaring borrowing costs curbed demand, UK house prices fell more than expected, and the fastest decline since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>UK house prices fell 1.4% in November, the agency said. It was the second drop in months and the biggest since June 2020. Excluding the pandemic period, UK house prices have not fallen so sharply since the global financial crisis more than 10 years ago. Economists had expected a 0.4% decline.</p><p>The cost of home loans has soared to more than 6pc in recent weeks from about 1pc a year ago on the back of an increase in the Bank of England's benchmark lending rate and investor concerns about slowing economic growth and rising government debt. While costs for borrowers have pulled back from their peaks, they are still likely to be well above what buyers have seen for much of the past decade.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign media headlines | U.S. core PCE still far exceeds the Fed's target, and there is little hope of a soft landing</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign media headlines | U.S. core PCE still far exceeds the Fed's target, and there is little hope of a soft landing\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-02 05:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. The U.S. core PCE far exceeds the Fed's 2% target, and the hope of a soft landing is still slim</b><b>2. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States has risen to the highest since February, making it more difficult to re-find employment</b><b>3. The U.S. savings rate fell to the lowest level since 2005 in October, continued inflation and Fed rate hike hit a double blow</b><b>4. Chicago Fed appoints former US Obama administration adviser Goolsbee as its new president</b><b>5. Credit Suisse's stock price hit the longest losing streak in history and has fallen 66% this year</b><b>6. UK house prices fall more than expected, mortgage interest rates soar, curbing demand</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b26f4dcea8cd92793b55e49bafa9f8d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>U.S. core PCE far exceeds Fed's 2% target, hope of soft landing remains slim</b></p><p>In October, the core PCE, a benchmark inflation indicator in the United States, rose 5% year-on-year and 6% year-on-year, still far higher than the Fed's 2% target. The hope of the Fed's inflation cooling but the economy not declining is still slim.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Thursday showed that the personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) excluding food and energy increased by 0.2% in October compared with October, a lower-than-expected increase. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized this week that the core PCE is what he believes is an indicator that more accurately reflects the direction of inflation.</p><p>Core PCE rose 5% year-on-year, and the increase in September was revised upward to 5.2%.</p><p>The overall PCE rose 0.3% month-on-month and 6% year-on-year for the third consecutive month, still well above the Fed's 2% target.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bd89a1ca05a83b77f9ce74a93c3892\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>U.S. unemployment claims continue to rise to the highest since February, making it more difficult to re-find jobs</b></p><p>The number of people claiming continuing unemployment benefits in the United States rose to the highest level since February, indicating that unemployed Americans are struggling to find new jobs in a cooling labor market.</p><p>In the week ending November 19, the number of continuing U.S. claims for unemployment benefits increased by 57,000 to 1.6 million, the largest increase in a year.</p><p>Data from the U.S. Labor Department on Thursday showed that initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 16,000 to 225,000 in the week ending Nov. 26. The median estimate for economists polled by Bloomberg was 235,000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee6f67b8dab72d003d6a36b4735a6092\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>U.S. savings rate fell to lowest level since 2005 in October, double whammy of persistent inflation and Fed rate hike</b></p><p>Americans are saving at their lowest rate since 2005, highlighting that inflation and rising borrowing costs are weakening households' financial buffers.</p><p>Data released Thursday by the U.S. Commerce Department showed that personal savings as a percentage of disposable income fell to 2.3% in October. The report also showed that inflation-adjusted spending remained strong despite a slight cooling in inflation.</p><p>With the double whammy of persistent inflation and the Federal Reserve's rate hike, it is difficult for U.S. consumer spending to fall. Most representatively, credit card consumption increased, and the year-on-year increase in U.S. household debt in the third quarter reached the highest since 2008.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d525cc42899299aa4b8612a0f9436181\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Chicago Fed names former Obama administration adviser Goolsbee as new president</b></p><p>The Chicago Fed has appointed Austan Goolsbee, an economist who served as an adviser to former President Barack Obama, as its new president. The current president Evans will retire in January next year.</p><p>The Chicago Fed said in an email statement on Thursday that Goolsbee, 53, will take office on January 9th. He is currently a professor of economics at the Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago. Goolsby was once the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers of the United States and the youngest cabinet member of President Barack Obama's cabinet.</p><p>Evans has been at the helm of the Chicago Fed for 15 years, and for most of his tenure, he has been one of the Fed's most dovish policymakers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25334e85cba6df35ddcc81c2f9c1e561\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Credit Suisse shares hit longest losing streak in history, down 66% this year</b></p><p>Credit Suisse Group's share price fell for the 13th consecutive day, setting the longest losing streak in history. The Swiss bank is in deep trouble. After years of scandals and mismanagement, the capital raising plan has further impacted its share price.</p><p>Credit Suisse closed down 6.1% on Thursday to a record low of $3.08. Since November 23rd, the share price has dropped by about 21%, when the bank said that its key wealth management business suffered a large outflow of funds, and said that it might suffer another major loss in the fourth quarter, reaching 1.5 billion Swiss francs (1.6 billion US dollars).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a348a366bc39d591cfb5fb19987fb1ac\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>UK house prices fall more than expected, soaring mortgage rates dampen demand</b></p><p>British mortgage lender Nationwide Building Society said that after soaring borrowing costs curbed demand, UK house prices fell more than expected, and the fastest decline since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>UK house prices fell 1.4% in November, the agency said. It was the second drop in months and the biggest since June 2020. Excluding the pandemic period, UK house prices have not fallen so sharply since the global financial crisis more than 10 years ago. Economists had expected a 0.4% decline.</p><p>The cost of home loans has soared to more than 6pc in recent weeks from about 1pc a year ago on the back of an increase in the Bank of England's benchmark lending rate and investor concerns about slowing economic growth and rising government debt. While costs for borrowers have pulled back from their peaks, they are still likely to be well above what buyers have seen for much of the past decade.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-12-02/doc-imqmmthc6739501.shtml\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b26f4dcea8cd92793b55e49bafa9f8d","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-12-02/doc-imqmmthc6739501.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288839109","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：　　 1、美国核心PCE远超美联储2%目标 软着陆的希望仍然渺茫       2、美国持续申领失业救济人数升至2月份以来最高 重新就业难度加大       3、美国10月份储蓄率降至2005年以来最低水平 持续通胀和联储加息双重打击       4、芝加哥联储任命美国前奥巴马政府顾问古尔斯比为新行长　　 5、瑞信股价创史上最长连跌纪录 今年以来已下跌66%　　 6、英国房价降幅超出预期 按揭贷款利率飙升抑制需求美国核心PCE远超美联储2%目标 软着陆的希望仍然渺茫10月美国一项基准通胀指标——核心PCE同比上涨5%，同比升幅6%，仍远高于美联储2%的目标，美联储通胀降温但经济不衰退的希望仍然渺茫。美国商务部周四公布的数据显示，10月不包括食品和能源的个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）较10月增长0.2%，升幅低于预期。美联储主席鲍威尔本周强调，核心PCE是他认为更能准确反映通胀走向的指标。核心PCE同比上涨5%，9月升幅上修至5.2%。整体PCE连续第三个月环比上升0.3%，同比升幅6%，仍远高于美联储2%的目标。美国持续申领失业救济人数升至2月份以来最高 重新就业难度加大美国持续申领失业救济的人数升至2月份以来的最高水平，表明失业的美国人在逐渐降温的劳动力市场上找到新工作的难度加大。在截至11月19日当周，美国持续申领失业救济人数增加5.7万人，至160万人，为一年来最大增幅。美国劳工部周四的数据显示，在截至11月26日当周，首次申领失业救济人数减少1.6万人，至22.5万人。接受彭博调查的经济学家的预估中值为23.5万人。美国10月份储蓄率降至2005年以来最低水平 持续通胀和联储加息双重打击美国人储蓄率创2005年以来最低水平，凸显出通胀和借贷成本上升正在削弱家庭的财务缓冲能力。美国商务部周四发布的数据显示，10月份个人储蓄占可支配收入之比降至2.3%。报告还显示，尽管通胀略有降温，但经通胀调整的支出仍然强劲。在持续通胀和美联储加息的双重打击下，美国消费支出很难下降。最具代表性的是，信用卡消费增多，第三季度美国居民债务的同比升幅达到2008年以来最高。芝加哥联储任命美国前奥巴马政府顾问古尔斯比为新行长芝加哥联储任命曾为前总统奥巴马担任顾问的经济学家奥斯坦·古尔斯比（Austan Goolsbee）为新行长，现行长埃文斯将于明年1月退休。芝加哥联储周四在一份电邮声明中表示，现年53岁的古尔斯比将于1月9日履任，他目前是芝加哥大学布斯商学院经济学教授。古尔斯比曾经是美国经济顾问委员会主席，并且是美国总统奥巴马内阁中最年轻的内阁成员。埃文斯执掌芝加哥联储15年，在任内的大部分时间里，他一直是美联储最鸽派的决策者之一。瑞信股价创史上最长连跌纪录 今年以来已下跌66%瑞信集团股价连续第13天走低，创出有史以来最长连跌纪录，这家瑞士银行深陷困境，在持续多年的丑闻和管理不善后，资本募集计划对其股价构成进一步的冲击。瑞信周四收盘下跌6.1%，至3.08美元的纪录新低。11月23日以来，股价下跌了大约21%，当时该行称，其关键性的理财业务遭遇大量资金外流，并称第四季度可能会再次蒙受重大亏损，达到15亿瑞郎（16亿美元）。英国房价降幅超出预期 按揭贷款利率飙升抑制需求英国按揭贷款机构Nationwide Building Society表示，在借贷成本飙升抑制需求之后，英国房价跌幅超过预期，而且是新冠疫情爆发以来的最快跌速。该机构称，英国11月房价下跌1.4%。这是数月来的第二次下跌，也是2020年6月以来的最大跌幅。不包括疫情时期，英国房价自10多年前全球金融危机以来从未出现过如此大幅的下跌。经济学家此前预期为下滑0.4%。受英国央行上调基准贷款利率以及投资者对经济增长放缓和政府债务上升的担忧影响，住房贷款成本最近几周从一年前的约1%飙升至6%以上。虽然借款人的成本已较峰值回落，但仍可能远高于买家过去十年大部分时间内的水平。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"SDS":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,".SPX":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,"SDOW":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"QID":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"NQmain":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2413,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963772495,"gmtCreate":1668775578718,"gmtModify":1676538111904,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090574021972690","idStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963772495","repostId":"2284728958","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2284728958","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"创业与投资专业门户","home_visible":1,"media_name":"投资界","id":"1096839439","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2531123ee54a22588d693ba65ab705b3"},"pubTimestamp":1668766250,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2284728958?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-18 18:10","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Masayoshi Son announces farewell","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2284728958","media":"投资界","summary":"“这将是我最后一次在财务业绩会上发言。”在最新软银集团财季报告的舞台上，孙正义郑重宣布以后不再出席软银的财报会议，并将集团的日常管理工作移交给CFO后藤芳光（Yoshimitsu Goto）等高管。这","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>“<b>This will be the last time I will speak at the financial results meeting</b>。”</p><p>On the stage of the latest SoftBank Group quarterly report, Masayoshi Son solemnly announced that he would no longer attend SoftBank's financial report meeting in the future, and handed over the daily management of the group to CFO Yoshimitsu Goto and other executives. This is the first time in his history at the helm of SoftBank.</p><p>The aggressive investment style made LP feel mixed, and Son Zhengyi chose to turn around<b>Put your heart and soul into chip company ARM</b>。 This time, it can be said that this investment madman's first step towards retirement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69620816bf719ccb798938c41983bac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Masayoshi Son is undoubtedly one of the most topical legends in the history of venture capital. Born in a small village in Japan in 1957, after witnessing several family changes, the young Masayoshi Son vowed to \"make a big career and become Japan's number one entrepreneur\" and set himself at the age of 19. Life plan for the next 50 years</p><p>Started a business at the age of 20, earned one billion dollars at the age of 30, became the number one at the age of 40, earned tens of billions at the age of 50, and retired at the age of 60.</p><p>As Masayoshi Son wished, the first half of his life was stirring by founding SoftBank and creating a huge capital empire, especially more than 20 years ago<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The \"6-minute investment\" has been able to save SoftBank from fire and water so far. What failed was that Masayoshi Son has not yet been able to fully retire. This year's situation is more difficult than expected, with ups and downs for half a life. At the age of 65, he seems to have had the intention of quitting.</p><p><b>Masayoshi Son presided over the financial report meeting for the last time:</b></p><p><b>Selling Ali, Softbank finally doesn't lose money</b></p><p>This is the last time we will see Masayoshi Son in this form.</p><p>On November 11, SoftBank Group announced its report for the first half of its fiscal year (April). On the whole, SoftBank gained a net sales of 3.2 trillion yen, an investment loss of 849.6 billion yen (about 43 billion yuan) and a net loss of 129.1 billion yen in the first half of fiscal year 2022, a loss of about RMB 6.6 billion.</p><p>You read it correctly, it is indeed 6.6 billion. This small amount of money can be said to be not worth mentioning in front of the huge SoftBank. We will talk about the reasons in detail later.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17a9afbf5120644e228405e9567be93\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The \"culprit\" of SoftBank's losses is still the sharp decline in the stock prices/valuations of the investment portfolios in the three funds of Vision Fund SVF1, SVF2 and LatAm Funds, including the American food delivery company Doordash, the Southeast Asian online ride-hailing company GoTo, and the Korean version of \"Alibaba\" Coupang, Keike House Search, Wework, SenseTime, etc.</p><p>\"Judging from the current situation, whether it is the primary market or the secondary market, almost all investments we have made have not performed well.\" Masayoshi Son bluntly said at the latest financial report meeting, \"<b>Listed and unlisted stocks are close to annihilation, and Vision Fund has taken a clear hit</b>”。 From July to September alone, the investment loss of SoftBank Vision Fund reached nearly US $10 billion, and in the first half of the fiscal year, it caused a total investment loss of 4.4 trillion yen, or approximately RMB 220 billion.</p><p>However, the huge hole created by SoftBank Vision Fund was filled by Ali. Looking at the breakdown, in the first fiscal quarter (46 months), SoftBank recorded a net loss of 3.16 trillion yen (about 160 billion yuan), the highest loss in recent years; In the second fiscal quarter of July, it reversed and achieved a net profit of 3.03 trillion yen (about 153 billion yuan).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4acb011a2d43a79547802b2a5a856dc0\" tg-width=\"809\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>This is SoftBank's first profit in three quarters. \"The main source of the huge gains is Alibaba, and we signed prepaid forward contracts using Alibaba shares.\" SoftBank Group CFO Yoshimitsu Goto revealed at the earnings conference. The financial report shows that in August 2022, SoftBank implemented the early physical settlement of 242 million Alibaba shares corresponding to the prepaid forward contract, thereby recovering more than 270 billion yuan.</p><p>So far, Alibaba's share of SoftBank's assets has dropped to 14.6%, and its volume is still not small. I can't help but sigh. I didn't expect that the investment that was decided after only six minutes of meeting more than 20 years ago would bring such unimaginable returns to Masayoshi Son and Softbank in the future.</p><p>At present, the volatility of technology stocks is still in progress, which has forced SoftBank to contract across the board and is further reducing investment. For example, the total investment of SVF1 in the same period last fiscal year was still 17.8 billion yuan, but this year it was only 1.8 billion yuan. This scene is even more tragic in the second phase of the Vision Fund. During the VF2 period, a total of 16 billion yuan was invested, compared with 139.5 billion yuan in the same period of the previous fiscal year, which can be called \"knee cut\".</p><p>These are difficult times for global private equity investing. In order to effectively alleviate the situation, Goto Yoshimitsu said that SoftBank Vision Fund will lay off 30% of its employees. However, such \"explosive\" news didn't arouse too much splash. Perhaps everyone has become accustomed to this situation this year.</p><p><b>Say goodbye to investment, Masayoshi Son devotes himself to ARM</b></p><p>Standing on the stage of the last financial report conference, Masayoshi Son seemed a little emotional, almost all telling his story with ARM. This is regarded by him as the origin of his life.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4eb36042ebfa27bac1c8ca3caf6f6d59\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It was the autumn of 1976, and 19-year-old Masayoshi Son was studying abroad in the United States. One day, while reading a science magazine on the sidewalk, he accidentally saw a \"mysterious photo of a futuristic city that looks like a geometric pattern\" of a microcomputer chip. Turning to the next page, he was deeply shocked that it turned out to be a microcomputer chip the size of a fingertip and less than 1cm in diameter.</p><p>\"I know what a computer is and what a computer program is, but I didn't know that it all came from such small parts.\" After reading that magazine, Masayoshi Son couldn't help but cry. He felt that he had discovered something that might surpass human intellectual activity for the first time. Looking back on those days, he said, \"I am very touched, because humans are probably the smartest people on earth, and they have created something beyond human intelligence.\"</p><p>Forty-five years have passed since that day, but microcomputers are far from mature and are still developing in a big bang. Masayoshi Son saw that in the long history of human beings for tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of years, the information revolution has spread rapidly in just 50 years, and we have now reached a situation where we can't live without smart phones.</p><p>\"At the same time, the core of the CPU has been transferred from Intel to ARM, and ARM's position as the most efficient architecture will become more and more stable. That's how I understand it.\" He judged, \"When everything is being digitized, ARM's stage will be bigger.\"</p><p>Recalling the first time he saw the photo of the microcomputer chip, Masayoshi Son decided to devote his life to the information revolution. Now, he will return to that \"origin\", which is also his future direction</p><p>“<b>Over the next few years, I want to work on the next phase of ARM's explosive growth</b>。” Masayoshi Son said at the opening of the press conference, \"This makes me feel excited and happy. ARM and related businesses will be SoftBank's biggest growth point in the future.\"</p><p>Speaking of ARM, this is another big gamble in Masayoshi Son's investment history. In 2016, SoftBank Group at the helm of Masayoshi Son acquired British chip giant ARM for US $31 billion in cash. In order to win ARM and raise funds for the acquisition, SoftBank sold a number of high-quality assets, including Alibaba, at that time, and even borrowed heavily at all costs. Such a big move shocked the entire chip industry. Masayoshi Son once again demonstrated his adventurous spirit, which made his peers shudder, and was called a \"desperate gamble\" by the outside world.</p><p>ARM was originally a trump card in Masayoshi Son's hands. When SoftBank was mired in a quagmire, it once hoped to sell it for US $60 billion. Earlier this year,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>Originally planned to acquire ARM for US $40 billion, the largest deal in the history of the chip industry fell through because regulators failed to approve it.</p><p>Since then, SoftBank has started preparations for ARM's independent IPO, but it is still unclear where the IPO will be so far. At this financial report meeting, SoftBank IR and ARM Vice President Ian Thornton revealed, \"We hope ARM will go public as soon as possible, but given the current global economic uncertainty, ARM's IPO is unlikely to happen before the end of March 2023. Preparations are currently Going well, or an IPO sometime in 2023.\"</p><p>“<b>From the beginning, ARM was the last asset we wanted to sell if SoftBank wasn't in crisis</b>。 Especially recently, I realized once again how great ARM is and its future growth opportunities are huge. \" In the past few months, Masayoshi Son has been thinking repeatedly, \"How can we make the best use of ARM, and what kind of interesting services and technologies can we make? Thinking about all this, I am convinced of these great technological innovations No doubt.\"</p><p><b>The rivers and lakes are gone, and a generation of investment madmen let go</b></p><p>This year should be the fiercest year for Masayoshi Son's ideological struggle.</p><p>The world in front of us is full of risks, and venture capital institutions around the world are experiencing different degrees of tension. In this situation, Masayoshi Son is also constantly thinking about where SoftBank should go? Should the Vision Fund continue to invest? Or should we reduce debt and lower the debt ratio and have more cash to drive the business more securely?</p><p>\"We had several heated discussions internally, and I figured it out later myself.\" Son said at the earnings conference. \"The conclusion is that we won't be able to see inflation subside during this period.<b>SoftBank Must Be In Defensive Mode And Stay That Direction All Time</b>。”</p><p>I still remember the young Masayoshi Son who was inspired and shed tears when he read Ryoma Sakamoto, who \"left the vassal\" in pursuit of his dream in the historical book Ryoma Comes. \"You are not a mediocre person buried in the grass. Go out and do something big. As long as you think it is right, you will do it resolutely.\"</p><p>In the future, this plot always appeared in his mind and became the source of spiritual motivation for many of his difficult decisions. \"At first, it was just dreams and baseless self-confidence, but it all started here,\" Masayoshi Son once said.</p><p>To a certain extent, this also contributed to Masayoshi Son's staggering and tough investment style. Over the years, SoftBank and Vision Fund, which he is in charge of, have played impressively in the primary market. They use cash to change the rules of the game. They are willing to give high valuations, dare to give high valuations, and invest in their opponents' rolling style of play, no one can beat it.</p><p>During this period, Masayoshi Son seemed to only give himself two ways, either to make a lot of money or lose money, spending time and energy on explosive projects. This style of play has also won Masayoshi Son a super unicorn that is almost famous in the world, and he is full of anger. However, throughout its investment history, except for<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo!</a>In addition to the battle with Alibaba, most of the projects in his hands have brought him a series of troubles and losses, such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WE\">WeWork</a>, OYO, Uber... and the unicorns that collapse after building.</p><p>Behind the magical scene, SoftBank began to reflect and decided to restrain investment for a long time.<b>Masayoshi Son, 65, also made changes, breaking his decades-old routine</b>Say goodbye to the SoftBank earnings report stage that has been led and hosted by him, and keep a low profile.</p><p>In previous years, Masayoshi Son would talk about his eclectic investment philosophy through financial reporting activities, and the outside world can also get a glimpse of this venture capitalist's investment attitude from his historical paintings or abstract pictures. Masayoshi Son has expressed his desire for capital and his expectation of how science and technology can improve human happiness on this stage more than once, sometimes absurd and sometimes full of poetry.</p><p>However, after that, he will no longer host the financial report conference in this form, but may only make some brief comments, and hand over these daily affairs to several other deputies such as Goto Yoshimitsu. \"Goto is better on defense than I am,\" Son said at his last earnings conference. \"<b>I'm an aggressive person, not a defensive one</b>。”</p><p>Perhaps worried that the outside world was too focused on his retirement, Masayoshi Son did not forget to add, \"<b>I am in good health, healthy and energetic</b>\", and said\" I will continue to be at shareholder meetings, and when something unpredictable happens, I will come back at any time. \"</p><p>In the torrent, the mythical years belonging to this venture capital empire began to fade away, and that eccentric, radical and adventurous investment madman gradually disappeared from the spotlight. Times have really changed.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Masayoshi Son announces farewell</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMasayoshi Son announces farewell\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1096839439\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/2531123ee54a22588d693ba65ab705b3);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">投资界 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-18 18:10</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>“<b>This will be the last time I will speak at the financial results meeting</b>。”</p><p>On the stage of the latest SoftBank Group quarterly report, Masayoshi Son solemnly announced that he would no longer attend SoftBank's financial report meeting in the future, and handed over the daily management of the group to CFO Yoshimitsu Goto and other executives. This is the first time in his history at the helm of SoftBank.</p><p>The aggressive investment style made LP feel mixed, and Son Zhengyi chose to turn around<b>Put your heart and soul into chip company ARM</b>。 This time, it can be said that this investment madman's first step towards retirement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69620816bf719ccb798938c41983bac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Masayoshi Son is undoubtedly one of the most topical legends in the history of venture capital. Born in a small village in Japan in 1957, after witnessing several family changes, the young Masayoshi Son vowed to \"make a big career and become Japan's number one entrepreneur\" and set himself at the age of 19. Life plan for the next 50 years</p><p>Started a business at the age of 20, earned one billion dollars at the age of 30, became the number one at the age of 40, earned tens of billions at the age of 50, and retired at the age of 60.</p><p>As Masayoshi Son wished, the first half of his life was stirring by founding SoftBank and creating a huge capital empire, especially more than 20 years ago<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The \"6-minute investment\" has been able to save SoftBank from fire and water so far. What failed was that Masayoshi Son has not yet been able to fully retire. This year's situation is more difficult than expected, with ups and downs for half a life. At the age of 65, he seems to have had the intention of quitting.</p><p><b>Masayoshi Son presided over the financial report meeting for the last time:</b></p><p><b>Selling Ali, Softbank finally doesn't lose money</b></p><p>This is the last time we will see Masayoshi Son in this form.</p><p>On November 11, SoftBank Group announced its report for the first half of its fiscal year (April). On the whole, SoftBank gained a net sales of 3.2 trillion yen, an investment loss of 849.6 billion yen (about 43 billion yuan) and a net loss of 129.1 billion yen in the first half of fiscal year 2022, a loss of about RMB 6.6 billion.</p><p>You read it correctly, it is indeed 6.6 billion. This small amount of money can be said to be not worth mentioning in front of the huge SoftBank. We will talk about the reasons in detail later.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17a9afbf5120644e228405e9567be93\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The \"culprit\" of SoftBank's losses is still the sharp decline in the stock prices/valuations of the investment portfolios in the three funds of Vision Fund SVF1, SVF2 and LatAm Funds, including the American food delivery company Doordash, the Southeast Asian online ride-hailing company GoTo, and the Korean version of \"Alibaba\" Coupang, Keike House Search, Wework, SenseTime, etc.</p><p>\"Judging from the current situation, whether it is the primary market or the secondary market, almost all investments we have made have not performed well.\" Masayoshi Son bluntly said at the latest financial report meeting, \"<b>Listed and unlisted stocks are close to annihilation, and Vision Fund has taken a clear hit</b>”。 From July to September alone, the investment loss of SoftBank Vision Fund reached nearly US $10 billion, and in the first half of the fiscal year, it caused a total investment loss of 4.4 trillion yen, or approximately RMB 220 billion.</p><p>However, the huge hole created by SoftBank Vision Fund was filled by Ali. Looking at the breakdown, in the first fiscal quarter (46 months), SoftBank recorded a net loss of 3.16 trillion yen (about 160 billion yuan), the highest loss in recent years; In the second fiscal quarter of July, it reversed and achieved a net profit of 3.03 trillion yen (about 153 billion yuan).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4acb011a2d43a79547802b2a5a856dc0\" tg-width=\"809\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>This is SoftBank's first profit in three quarters. \"The main source of the huge gains is Alibaba, and we signed prepaid forward contracts using Alibaba shares.\" SoftBank Group CFO Yoshimitsu Goto revealed at the earnings conference. The financial report shows that in August 2022, SoftBank implemented the early physical settlement of 242 million Alibaba shares corresponding to the prepaid forward contract, thereby recovering more than 270 billion yuan.</p><p>So far, Alibaba's share of SoftBank's assets has dropped to 14.6%, and its volume is still not small. I can't help but sigh. I didn't expect that the investment that was decided after only six minutes of meeting more than 20 years ago would bring such unimaginable returns to Masayoshi Son and Softbank in the future.</p><p>At present, the volatility of technology stocks is still in progress, which has forced SoftBank to contract across the board and is further reducing investment. For example, the total investment of SVF1 in the same period last fiscal year was still 17.8 billion yuan, but this year it was only 1.8 billion yuan. This scene is even more tragic in the second phase of the Vision Fund. During the VF2 period, a total of 16 billion yuan was invested, compared with 139.5 billion yuan in the same period of the previous fiscal year, which can be called \"knee cut\".</p><p>These are difficult times for global private equity investing. In order to effectively alleviate the situation, Goto Yoshimitsu said that SoftBank Vision Fund will lay off 30% of its employees. However, such \"explosive\" news didn't arouse too much splash. Perhaps everyone has become accustomed to this situation this year.</p><p><b>Say goodbye to investment, Masayoshi Son devotes himself to ARM</b></p><p>Standing on the stage of the last financial report conference, Masayoshi Son seemed a little emotional, almost all telling his story with ARM. This is regarded by him as the origin of his life.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4eb36042ebfa27bac1c8ca3caf6f6d59\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It was the autumn of 1976, and 19-year-old Masayoshi Son was studying abroad in the United States. One day, while reading a science magazine on the sidewalk, he accidentally saw a \"mysterious photo of a futuristic city that looks like a geometric pattern\" of a microcomputer chip. Turning to the next page, he was deeply shocked that it turned out to be a microcomputer chip the size of a fingertip and less than 1cm in diameter.</p><p>\"I know what a computer is and what a computer program is, but I didn't know that it all came from such small parts.\" After reading that magazine, Masayoshi Son couldn't help but cry. He felt that he had discovered something that might surpass human intellectual activity for the first time. Looking back on those days, he said, \"I am very touched, because humans are probably the smartest people on earth, and they have created something beyond human intelligence.\"</p><p>Forty-five years have passed since that day, but microcomputers are far from mature and are still developing in a big bang. Masayoshi Son saw that in the long history of human beings for tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of years, the information revolution has spread rapidly in just 50 years, and we have now reached a situation where we can't live without smart phones.</p><p>\"At the same time, the core of the CPU has been transferred from Intel to ARM, and ARM's position as the most efficient architecture will become more and more stable. That's how I understand it.\" He judged, \"When everything is being digitized, ARM's stage will be bigger.\"</p><p>Recalling the first time he saw the photo of the microcomputer chip, Masayoshi Son decided to devote his life to the information revolution. Now, he will return to that \"origin\", which is also his future direction</p><p>“<b>Over the next few years, I want to work on the next phase of ARM's explosive growth</b>。” Masayoshi Son said at the opening of the press conference, \"This makes me feel excited and happy. ARM and related businesses will be SoftBank's biggest growth point in the future.\"</p><p>Speaking of ARM, this is another big gamble in Masayoshi Son's investment history. In 2016, SoftBank Group at the helm of Masayoshi Son acquired British chip giant ARM for US $31 billion in cash. In order to win ARM and raise funds for the acquisition, SoftBank sold a number of high-quality assets, including Alibaba, at that time, and even borrowed heavily at all costs. Such a big move shocked the entire chip industry. Masayoshi Son once again demonstrated his adventurous spirit, which made his peers shudder, and was called a \"desperate gamble\" by the outside world.</p><p>ARM was originally a trump card in Masayoshi Son's hands. When SoftBank was mired in a quagmire, it once hoped to sell it for US $60 billion. Earlier this year,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>Originally planned to acquire ARM for US $40 billion, the largest deal in the history of the chip industry fell through because regulators failed to approve it.</p><p>Since then, SoftBank has started preparations for ARM's independent IPO, but it is still unclear where the IPO will be so far. At this financial report meeting, SoftBank IR and ARM Vice President Ian Thornton revealed, \"We hope ARM will go public as soon as possible, but given the current global economic uncertainty, ARM's IPO is unlikely to happen before the end of March 2023. Preparations are currently Going well, or an IPO sometime in 2023.\"</p><p>“<b>From the beginning, ARM was the last asset we wanted to sell if SoftBank wasn't in crisis</b>。 Especially recently, I realized once again how great ARM is and its future growth opportunities are huge. \" In the past few months, Masayoshi Son has been thinking repeatedly, \"How can we make the best use of ARM, and what kind of interesting services and technologies can we make? Thinking about all this, I am convinced of these great technological innovations No doubt.\"</p><p><b>The rivers and lakes are gone, and a generation of investment madmen let go</b></p><p>This year should be the fiercest year for Masayoshi Son's ideological struggle.</p><p>The world in front of us is full of risks, and venture capital institutions around the world are experiencing different degrees of tension. In this situation, Masayoshi Son is also constantly thinking about where SoftBank should go? Should the Vision Fund continue to invest? Or should we reduce debt and lower the debt ratio and have more cash to drive the business more securely?</p><p>\"We had several heated discussions internally, and I figured it out later myself.\" Son said at the earnings conference. \"The conclusion is that we won't be able to see inflation subside during this period.<b>SoftBank Must Be In Defensive Mode And Stay That Direction All Time</b>。”</p><p>I still remember the young Masayoshi Son who was inspired and shed tears when he read Ryoma Sakamoto, who \"left the vassal\" in pursuit of his dream in the historical book Ryoma Comes. \"You are not a mediocre person buried in the grass. Go out and do something big. As long as you think it is right, you will do it resolutely.\"</p><p>In the future, this plot always appeared in his mind and became the source of spiritual motivation for many of his difficult decisions. \"At first, it was just dreams and baseless self-confidence, but it all started here,\" Masayoshi Son once said.</p><p>To a certain extent, this also contributed to Masayoshi Son's staggering and tough investment style. Over the years, SoftBank and Vision Fund, which he is in charge of, have played impressively in the primary market. They use cash to change the rules of the game. They are willing to give high valuations, dare to give high valuations, and invest in their opponents' rolling style of play, no one can beat it.</p><p>During this period, Masayoshi Son seemed to only give himself two ways, either to make a lot of money or lose money, spending time and energy on explosive projects. This style of play has also won Masayoshi Son a super unicorn that is almost famous in the world, and he is full of anger. However, throughout its investment history, except for<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo!</a>In addition to the battle with Alibaba, most of the projects in his hands have brought him a series of troubles and losses, such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WE\">WeWork</a>, OYO, Uber... and the unicorns that collapse after building.</p><p>Behind the magical scene, SoftBank began to reflect and decided to restrain investment for a long time.<b>Masayoshi Son, 65, also made changes, breaking his decades-old routine</b>Say goodbye to the SoftBank earnings report stage that has been led and hosted by him, and keep a low profile.</p><p>In previous years, Masayoshi Son would talk about his eclectic investment philosophy through financial reporting activities, and the outside world can also get a glimpse of this venture capitalist's investment attitude from his historical paintings or abstract pictures. Masayoshi Son has expressed his desire for capital and his expectation of how science and technology can improve human happiness on this stage more than once, sometimes absurd and sometimes full of poetry.</p><p>However, after that, he will no longer host the financial report conference in this form, but may only make some brief comments, and hand over these daily affairs to several other deputies such as Goto Yoshimitsu. \"Goto is better on defense than I am,\" Son said at his last earnings conference. \"<b>I'm an aggressive person, not a defensive one</b>。”</p><p>Perhaps worried that the outside world was too focused on his retirement, Masayoshi Son did not forget to add, \"<b>I am in good health, healthy and energetic</b>\", and said\" I will continue to be at shareholder meetings, and when something unpredictable happens, I will come back at any time. \"</p><p>In the torrent, the mythical years belonging to this venture capital empire began to fade away, and that eccentric, radical and adventurous investment madman gradually disappeared from the spotlight. Times have really changed.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acb77b88f0e1500dd735d82182c9d65c","relate_stocks":{"SFTBY":"软银集团"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2284728958","content_text":"“这将是我最后一次在财务业绩会上发言。”在最新软银集团财季报告的舞台上，孙正义郑重宣布以后不再出席软银的财报会议，并将集团的日常管理工作移交给CFO后藤芳光（Yoshimitsu Goto）等高管。这是他执掌软银历史以来的第一次。激进的投资风格让LP心情复杂，孙正义选择转身将全身心投入到芯片公司ARM中。这一次，可以说是这位投资狂人迈向退休的第一步。孙正义，无疑是风投史上最具话题的传奇人物之一。1957年出生于日本一个小村庄，在目睹了几次家庭变故后，年纪轻轻的孙正义发誓“闯出一番大事业，成为日本第一企业家”，并在19岁那年为自己定下未来50年的人生规划20岁开始创业，30岁赚够十亿美元，40岁成为第一，50岁赚到百亿美元，60岁退休。如孙正义所愿，他的前半生因创办软银缔造了一个庞大的资本帝国而荡气回肠，尤其是20多年前对阿里巴巴的“6分钟投资”，至今都能救软银于水火之中。未能如愿的是，孙正义至今尚未能完全退休。今年的情况比想象中更艰难，浮沉半生，65岁的他似乎已经萌生了退意。孙正义最后一次主持财报会：卖阿里，软银终于不亏了这是我们最后一次以这样的形式见到孙正义。11月11日，软银集团公布了上半财年（49月）报告。综合来说，软银在2022财年上半年收获了3.2万亿日元的净销售额、投资损失8496亿日元（约合人民币430亿元）以及1291亿日元的净亏损，亏了约合人民币66亿元。你没看错，确实是66亿，这笔小钱在庞大的软银面前可以说不值一提，原因我们后面细细说来。软银亏损的“罪魁祸首”依然是愿景基金SVF1、SVF2以及LatAm Funds三支基金中投资组合的股价/估值急剧下降，包括了美国外卖公司Doordash 、东南亚网约车公司 GoTo 、韩国版“阿里巴巴”Coupang、贝壳找房、Wework、商汤科技等等。“从目前的情况来看，无论是一级市场还是二级市场，我们所做的几乎所有投资都没有好的表现。”孙正义在最新财报会上直言，“上市股和未上市股接近全军覆没，愿景基金也明显受到打击”。仅在7-9月，软银愿景基金的投资亏损就已近100亿美元，而整个上半财年其共造成了4.4万亿日元的投资损失，约合人民币2200亿元。不过软银愿景基金所酿造的巨大窟窿，被阿里补上了。拆分来看，在第一财季（46月），软银录得净亏损3.16万亿日元（约合人民币1600亿元），创下近年亏损之最；79月的第二财季却逆转实现了净利润3.03万亿日元（约合人民币1530亿元）。这是软银三个季度以来首次盈利。“巨额收益的主要来源是阿里巴巴，我们使用阿里巴巴股份签署了预付远期合约。”软银集团CFO后藤芳光在财报会议上透露。财报显示，在2022 年89月，软银实施了预付远期合约对应2.42亿股阿里巴巴股票的提前实物结算，以此收回了超超2700亿元人民币。至此，阿里巴巴在软银资产中的占比下降至14.6%，体量依然不小。不禁令人感叹，没想到二十多年前那次只见面六分钟就拍板的一笔投资，日后给孙正义和软银带来的回报会如此超乎想象。眼下科技股震荡仍在进行中，这迫使软银全面收缩，正进一步减少投资。如SVF1上一财年同期投资总额还是178亿元人民币，但到了今年仅为18亿元人民币。这一幕在愿景基金二期上显得更为惨烈VF2期内共投资160亿元人民币，上一财年同期的数字是1395亿元人民币，堪称“膝盖斩”。这是全球私募股权投资的艰难时刻。为有效缓解局面，后藤芳光表示，软银愿景基金将裁员30%。然而，这样“爆炸性”的消息却没有激起太多水花，也许今年大家对这样的境况已经习以为常。告别投资，孙正义投身于ARM站在最后一场财报发布会舞台上，孙正义显得有些感性，几乎都在讲述他与ARM的故事。这被他视作人生的原点。那是1976年的秋天，19岁的孙正义正在美国留学深造，一天在人行道上看科学杂志时，他无意间看到一张微型计算机芯片的“看起来像几何图案的未来城市的神秘照片”。翻到下一页，他被深深地震撼住了竟然是一块指尖大小、直径不到1厘米的微电脑芯片。“我知道计算机是什么，也知道计算机程序是什么，但我却不知道这些都来自于这么小的零件。”看完那篇杂志，孙正义控制不住地哭泣，他觉得自己第一次发现了可能超越人类智力活动的东西。回顾那些日子，他说：“我很感动，因为人类可能是地球上最聪明的人，他们又创造了超过人类智慧的东西。”现在距离那天已经过去了45年，但微型计算机远未成熟，且还在大爆炸式发展。孙正义看到，在人类几万年、几十万年的历史长河中，信息革命在短短50年时间里迅速蔓延，我们现在已经到了离不开智能手机的境地。“与此同时，CPU的核心已经从Intel转移到了ARM，ARM拥有最高效架构的地位将越来越稳固。我就是这么理解的。”他判断，“当所有都在被数字化，ARM的舞台将会更大。”回想起第一次看到那张微电脑芯片的照片时，孙正义就决定把自己的一生奉献给信息革命。而现在，他将回到那个“原点”，也是他未来的方向“在接下来的几年里，我想致力于ARM下一阶段的爆炸性增长。”孙正义在发布会开场时表示，“这是让我感到兴奋和快乐的，ARM和与之相关的业务将会是软银未来最大的增长点。”说起ARM，这也是孙正义投资史上的又一次豪赌。2016年，孙正义掌舵的软银集团以310亿美元的价格现金收购了英国芯片巨头ARM。为了拿下ARM、筹集收购的资金，软银更是在当时抛售了包括阿里巴巴在内的多项优质资产，甚至还不惜代价地大举借债。如此大手笔，震动了整个芯片行业，孙正义再一次彰显了他的冒险精神，令同行不寒而栗，被外界称为一场“绝命豪赌”。ARM本是孙正义手上的一张王牌，在软银深陷泥潭时，一度希望以600亿美金出手卖掉。今年年初，英伟达原本计划以400亿美金收购ARM，但因监管机构均未能批准，这项芯片行业有史以来规模最大的交易落空。此后，软银启动了ARM独立IPO的准备工作，但截止目前在哪里IPO还尚不明朗。这次财报会议上，软银IR、ARM副总裁Ian Thornton透露，“我们希望ARM尽快上市，但鉴于当前全球经济的不确定性，ARM的IPO不太可能在2023年3月底之前发生。目前筹备工作进展顺利，或在2023年的某个时间进行IPO。”“从一开始，如果不是软银身处危机，ARM是我们最不想出售的资产。尤其是最近，我再次意识到ARM是多么伟大，它未来的成长机会是巨大的。”过去几个月，孙正义一直反复思考，“我们如何才能最佳地利用ARM，又能做出什么样的有趣的服务、有趣的技术？想想这一切，我对这些伟大的技术创新深信不疑。”江湖远去，一代投资狂人放手今年应该是孙正义做思想斗争最猛烈的一年。眼前的世界风险重重，全球的风投机构都在经历着不同程度的紧张局面。此情此景，孙正义也在不停歇地思考着软银该走向何处？愿景基金要不要再继续投资？又或者，是否应该减少债务并降低债务比率，拥有更多现金以更安全地推动业务？“我们内部进行了几次激烈的讨论，后来我自己也想通了。”在财报会上，孙正义说，“结论是，我们将无法在此期间看到通货膨胀的平息，软银必须处于防御模式，并一直保持这个方向。”犹记得那个在读到历史著作《龙马来了》中为了追求梦想而“脱藩”的坂本龙马时，备受鼓舞而落泪的少年孙正义。“你不是埋在草野里的庸才，出去闯荡做一番大事业吧，只要自己认为是对的，就毅然决然地去做。”日后，这个情节总是在他的脑海中显现，成为他诸多艰难决策的精神动力之源。“最初拥有的只是梦想和毫无根据的自信而已，但是所有的一切都从这里开始。”孙正义曾说。一定程度上，这也促就了孙正义令人咋舌的彪悍投资风格。多年来，他所执掌的软银和愿景基金在一级市场的打法令人印象深刻用现金改变游戏规则，肯给高估值，敢给高估值，标的不给投就投其对手的碾压式打法，无人能敌。这段时期里，孙正义仿佛只给自己两条路要么大赚，要么赔掉，把时间和精力花在爆款项目上。这样的打法也为孙正义收揽了全球几乎叫得上名号的超级独角兽，赌气十足。然而，纵观其投资历史，除了雅虎和阿里巴巴使其一战封神之外，他手中的绝大多数项目都给他带来了一系列麻烦和亏损，如WeWork、OYO、Uber......还有一个个起高楼后崩塌的独角兽们。魔幻的一幕幕后，软银开始反省并决定长期克制投资，65岁的孙正义也做出改变，他打破了其几十年来的惯例告别一直由他领导主持的软银收益报告舞台，保持低调。往年里，孙正义会通过财报活动来谈论其不拘一格的投资理念，外界也能从他所投放的历史画作或抽象图片中一窥这位风投狂人的投资态度，而孙正义也不止一次地在这个舞台上表达对资本的欲望，以及科技如何改善人类幸福的期盼，时而荒诞，时而又充满诗意。但此后，他将不再以这种形式主持财报发布会，仅可能会做一些简短点评，并将这些日常事务移交给了后藤芳光等其他几名副手。“后藤比我更适合防守，”孙正义在他最后一次财报发布会上说，“我是一个好斗的人，而不是防守的人。”也许担心外界过于聚焦他的退隐，孙正义还不忘补充一句，“我身体状况良好，健康且精力充沛”，并表示“我会继续在股东大会，当有不可预测的事情发生时，我会随时回来。”洪流之中，属于这家风投帝国的神话岁月开始远去，而那个古怪的、激进的、爱冒险的投资狂人也渐渐消失于聚光灯下时代真的变了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SFTBY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2826,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963186839,"gmtCreate":1668633734222,"gmtModify":1676538085948,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090574021972690","idStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963186839","repostId":"2284622784","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9986097929,"gmtCreate":1666845246261,"gmtModify":1676537816031,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090574021972690","idStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986097929","repostId":"1161103277","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2950,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9981437287,"gmtCreate":1666579389949,"gmtModify":1676537770844,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090574021972690","idStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😶","listText":"😶","text":"😶","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9981437287","repostId":"1103231812","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103231812","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1666577035,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1103231812?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-24 10:03","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Hang Seng Technology Index fell more than 5%, and technology stocks continued to fall","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103231812","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"10月24日，港股持续走低，恒生指数跌超4%，恒生科技指数跌超5%；科技股持续下跌，腾讯控股、美团-W、京东集团-SW、百度集团-SW、哔哩哔哩-W跌超7%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On October 24, Hong Kong stocks continued to fall, the Hang Seng Index fell by more than 4%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by more than 5%; Tech stocks continue to fall,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">Jingdong Group-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">Baidu Group-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">Bilibili-W</a>Fell more than 7%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/042f67b8a19334d3574563519098cabf\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hang Seng Technology Index fell more than 5%, and technology stocks continued to fall</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHang Seng Technology Index fell more than 5%, and technology stocks continued to fall\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-10-24 10:03</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On October 24, Hong Kong stocks continued to fall, the Hang Seng Index fell by more than 4%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by more than 5%; Tech stocks continue to fall,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">Jingdong Group-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">Baidu Group-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">Bilibili-W</a>Fell more than 7%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/042f67b8a19334d3574563519098cabf\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","03086":"华夏纳指","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103231812","content_text":"10月24日，港股持续走低，恒生指数跌超4%，恒生科技指数跌超5%；科技股持续下跌，腾讯控股、美团-W、京东集团-SW、百度集团-SW、哔哩哔哩-W跌超7%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QNETCN":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,"TTTN":0.9,"03086":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2455,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9983374177,"gmtCreate":1666166480799,"gmtModify":1676537716937,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090574021972690","idStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9983374177","repostId":"9983378637","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9983378637,"gmtCreate":1666165888830,"gmtModify":1676537716744,"author":{"id":"9000000000000644","authorId":"9000000000000644","name":"CrystalRose","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25ded438897391c2e32edc77a343fe21","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000644","idStr":"9000000000000644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"These were the Bank drawdowns during the Global Fin crisis (2008-09). Imagine these Banks and their stocks surviving (and coming back great lengths) despite such huge drawdowns and the financial collapse. This is not 2008-09 so things may not get as bad, I think. Unless of course there is a global Bond market implosion.History repetes.. if you been in the markets for 50 years like me... upgrades starting to hit new wires. BAC&nbsp;$40 upgrades.. going head 36 to 38 next few days","listText":"These were the Bank drawdowns during the Global Fin crisis (2008-09). Imagine these Banks and their stocks surviving (and coming back great lengths) despite such huge drawdowns and the financial collapse. This is not 2008-09 so things may not get as bad, I think. Unless of course there is a global Bond market implosion.History repetes.. if you been in the markets for 50 years like me... upgrades starting to hit new wires. BAC&nbsp;$40 upgrades.. going head 36 to 38 next few days","text":"These were the Bank drawdowns during the Global Fin crisis (2008-09). Imagine these Banks and their stocks surviving (and coming back great lengths) despite such huge drawdowns and the financial collapse. This is not 2008-09 so things may not get as bad, I think. Unless of course there is a global Bond market implosion.History repetes.. if you been in the markets for 50 years like me... upgrades starting to hit new wires. BAC $40 upgrades.. going head 36 to 38 next few days","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9983378637","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2058,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9989451858,"gmtCreate":1666066329974,"gmtModify":1676537700323,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090574021972690","idStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9989451858","repostId":"1182942032","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1182942032","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1666060939,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182942032?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-18 10:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The market is betting on the Fed's early interest rate cut. Is it wise to buy the bottom in advance?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182942032","media":"第一财经","summary":"纽约联储模型显示，明年衰退概率逼近疫情峰值。对于衰退的担忧正使投资者对于未来的政策路径的判断与美联储之间产生偏离。市场开始押注，美联储为应对物价压力将前置加息，随后提前“投降”降息。芝商所（CME）利","content":"<p><div>The New York Fed model shows that the probability of a recession next year is approaching the peak of the epidemic. Recession fears are diverting investors' judgments on the future policy path from the Fed's. The market began to bet that the Federal Reserve would advance rate hike in response to price pressures, and then \"surrender\" to cut interest rates ahead of schedule. The CME group (CME) Interest Rate Watch Tool (FedWatch) shows that the median interest rate of this round of the Federal Reserve will reach 4.95% in May next year, and the interest rate range at the end of the year may return below 4.50%-4.75%. Behind the recent market pulse, the capital game is becoming increasingly fierce. The Federal Reserve (Source: Xinhua Photo) ahead of...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101564762.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The market is betting on the Fed's early interest rate cut. Is it wise to buy the bottom in advance?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe market is betting on the Fed's early interest rate cut. Is it wise to buy the bottom in advance?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-18 10:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>The New York Fed model shows that the probability of a recession next year is approaching the peak of the epidemic. Recession fears are diverting investors' judgments on the future policy path from the Fed's. The market began to bet that the Federal Reserve would advance rate hike in response to price pressures, and then \"surrender\" to cut interest rates ahead of schedule. The CME group (CME) Interest Rate Watch Tool (FedWatch) shows that the median interest rate of this round of the Federal Reserve will reach 4.95% in May next year, and the interest rate range at the end of the year may return below 4.50%-4.75%. Behind the recent market pulse, the capital game is becoming increasingly fierce. The Federal Reserve (Source: Xinhua Photo) ahead of...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101564762.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101564762.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb5398fed733ffbbc94ab1b9a49946a8","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101564762.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182942032","content_text":"纽约联储模型显示，明年衰退概率逼近疫情峰值。对于衰退的担忧正使投资者对于未来的政策路径的判断与美联储之间产生偏离。市场开始押注，美联储为应对物价压力将前置加息，随后提前“投降”降息。芝商所（CME）利率观察工具（FedWatch）显示，本轮美联储利率中值将在明年5月达到4.95%，年末利率区间或回到4.50%-4.75%以下。近期市场脉冲行情背后，资金博弈日趋白热化。美联储（来源：新华社图）提前抄底是否明智花旗认为，股市短期将继续面临更多下行压力。标普500指数预期市盈率已从年初的近22倍降至16倍左右，但仍高于2007-2009年金融危机期间的10倍左右。“现在是大多数公司遇到过的最困难的宏观预测环境之一。”摩根士丹利资管投资组合经理斯莱蒙（Andrew Slimmon）表示，通常情况下，标普500指数35%的企业股息收益率高于2年期国债，目前这一比例现在要小得多，约为11%。斯莱蒙表示，在2年期美债收益率高于4%的情况下，美股反击很难取得很大进展。“除非收益率曲线的短端压力有所缓解，否则我看不到股市会走出像样的行情。”Refinitiv调查（来源：Refinitiv）据Refinitiv Lipper的统计，在诸多不确定性环境下，传统股票基金已连续35周出现资金净流出。与此同时，美银全球基金经理月度调查显示，机构将其平均现金余额增至20多年来的最高水平。随着财报季展开，商业活动降温对企业运营的影响正在展开，目前市场预计标普500指数成份股三季度净利润增长为4.6%，较7月初大幅下修，考虑到包括半导体、零售等行业多家公司近期发布业绩预警，未来的数据可能会进一步调降。不过近期多次出现的脉冲行情也给了投资者希望。不少观点认为，随着美联储加息步伐有望放缓，风险偏好回归有望迎来市场修复行情。另一方面，从目前的盈利预期看，三季度有望成为近两年业绩的低点。历史数据显示，一旦市场走出熊市，袖手旁观最终可能会付出代价。富国银行一项研究发现，如果投资者错过了过去30年中20个涨幅最大的交易日，他们的年平均回报率将从每年7.8%降至3.2%。 高盛指出，在美股触底后，指数短期往往会迎来强劲的上涨。自1980年以来，标普500指数在所经历的八次熊市出现低谷后的一个月内，平均回报率为16%。财富管理公司Stifel首席股票策略师班尼斯特（Barry Bannister）预计，标准普尔500指数正在触底，市场在今年第四季度至2023年初之间将出现积极的催化剂。“在年末最后两次美联储会议期间，我们确实看到了政策立场微妙变化的可能性，这将使投资者更加关注（改善）通胀数据，而不是政策本身。另一方面，季节性因素不容忽视，从11月到次年4月，美股的历史表现历来强劲。”报告写道。利率期货显示明年降息美股正在努力摆脱熊市的泥潭，经济前景和美联储政策预期依然短期风险偏好的最大敌人。为了遏制高涨的通胀压力，美联储已经采取了上世纪80年代以来最激进的货币政策，但收效甚微。作为其评估未来通胀趋势的关键指标，美国9月核心CPI意外升至6.6%，刷新年内新高。拐点预期被进一步推后，分项指标中，上月医疗费用同比增长6%，为1993年以来的最大增幅，住房租金增长7.2%，为1982年以来新高，食品价格同比增长13%，比肩上世纪70年代。短暂回落的能源价格近期也止跌回升，OPEC+减产决定令美国燃料油价格一周上涨近6%。美联储官员近期在公开表态中频频强调实现长期通胀目标的决心，严峻的形势也让外界上调了对本轮联邦基金利率终点的判断。巴克莱预计美联储可能会加息至5.00-5.25%，德意志银行美国经济学家魏德纳（Justin Weidner）认为，考虑到美联储加强了控制通胀的承诺，利率峰值将达到4.75%-5.00%。然而加息周期下的经济放缓压力正在增加，同时购物者消费预期受到了影响。随着年末假日季来临，Adobe Analytics表示，今年全美在线假日销售额预计将达到2097亿美元，同比增长2.5%，创2012年以来新低，远不及去年8.6%的增速。资产管理机构BK Asset Management宏观策略师施罗斯伯格（Boris Schlossberg）在接受第一财经采访时表示，从目前的情况看，劳动力市场很健康，保障了经济的活力，但购买力下滑的影响将进一步显现。从零售数据看，去除物价因素后支出增长仅为0.1%，通胀似乎变得根深蒂固。美联储需要将利率提高到什么水平才能达到价格稳定的目的，现在谁也没有确定的答案。另一方面，货币政策收紧的影响还会波及信用卡消费。施罗斯伯格向记者分析道，随着政府财政支持的资金逐渐消耗，美国民众的私人储蓄率再次回到低位，不少人开始被迫通过信用卡维持开销，利率上升产生的利息压力将进一步限制这些群体的消费选择，给经济带来更大下行压力。在美联储内部，目前的主流观点认为，货币政策需要保持在限制性区间一段时间，才能实现通胀降温的目标，过早降息对经济的风险更大，多位官员甚至明确否认了明年降息的可能性。外界对美国经济前景的担忧愈发明显，摩根大通CEO戴蒙上周发出警告称，未来6-9个月美国将陷入衰退，纽约联储模型显示，明年8月衰退的概率已经达到25.1%，正在逼近2020年疫情期间的峰值39%。牛津经济研究院高级经济学家施瓦茨（Bob Schwartz）在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，目前2/10年期美债倒挂比此前四次衰退更为严重。美联储并没有明确接受以衰退为代价实现其目标，因为这将给金融市场和公众信心带来负面影响，并可能意想不到的潜在破坏性后果。市场预期明年末美联储利率中值4.6%（来源：芝商所网站）美联储副主席布雷纳德（Lael Brainard）近日提到了货币政策对经济影响的滞后性，在某个时刻暂停评估之前的政策行动是重要的，称情况可能发生变化。施瓦茨认为，由于现在的加息周期非常紧凑，经济不太可能及时反映政策的全部影响，考虑到未来货币政策依赖于数据，意味着明年加息步伐将逐渐放缓并结束。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"QID":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"ESmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9980959730,"gmtCreate":1665633198020,"gmtModify":1676537640015,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090574021972690","idStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9980959730","repostId":"2275667395","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2275667395","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1665615976,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2275667395?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-13 07:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Fed meeting minutes: Recently reaching restrictive interest rates, more worried about too little rate hike","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2275667395","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"　　纪要称，美联储官员继续倾向于短期内实现加息至限制性的利率水平。许多与会者强调，在抑制通胀方面采取太少行动的成本超过了采取太多行动的成本。多名与会者指出，调整进一步收紧政策的步伐以减轻对经济前景产生重大不利影响的风险非常重要。　　10月12日周三公布的美联储9月货币政策会议纪要显示，美联储倾向于短期内实现加息至限制性的利率水平。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Fed officials continue to favor rate hike to restrictive interest rates in the short term, the minutes said. Many participants emphasized that the cost of doing too little to curb inflation outweighed the cost of doing too much. Several participants pointed out that it is very important to adjust the pace of further policy tightening to mitigate the risk of significant adverse effects on the economic outlook. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's September monetary policy meeting released on Wednesday, October 12th, showed that the Federal Reserve is inclined to achieve rate hike to restrictive interest rate levels (for the U.S. economy) in the short term.</p><p>The minutes said:</p><p>Given the broad-based and unacceptably high levels of inflation, higher-than-expected inflation news, and upside risks to the inflation outlook, participants said an intentional shift to a restrictive policy stance in the near term was consistent with risk management considerations. Participants felt that action was needed to maintain restrictive policies. Many participants said that once the policy reaches a sufficiently restrictive level, it would be appropriate to maintain that level for a period of time. Several members believe that the Fed's tightening actions need to be calibrated to mitigate risks. Officials stressed that even if the unemployment rate in the United States rises, the monetary policy path (current rate hike/tightening) should be maintained. Officials said rate hike would be slowed down at some point in time.</p><p>Several participants said risks would become more two-way as policies move into restrictive bands, the minutes showed:</p><p>Many participants emphasized that the cost of doing too little to curb inflation outweighed the cost of doing too much. Several of the participants emphasized that historical experience shows the danger of prematurely ending a period of tight monetary policy aimed at reducing inflation. Fed officials judged that they needed to pivot to and maintain a stricter policy stance to achieve their goal of reducing high inflation. Many participants upgraded their assessment of the Federal Funds rate path needed to achieve the Commission's objectives.</p><p>Some analysts believe that this implies that the Federal Reserve will continue its rate hike, regardless of the pressure rate hike brings to the US economy.</p><p><b>The Fed appears to be aware of the risks posed by aggressive rate hike</b></p><p>However, it seems that Fed officials are also aware of the global risks brought by the Fed's rate hike:</p><p>Several participants pointed out that, especially in the current highly uncertain global economic and financial environment, it is very important to adjust the pace of further policy tightening to mitigate the risk of significant adverse effects on the economic outlook. Participants judged that the pace and magnitude of the Fed's rate hike will continue to depend on the impact of upcoming information on economic activity and inflation outlook, as well as the risks to economic expectations.</p><p>In addition, Fed officials believe that the strengthening of the dollar largely reflects increased investor concerns about global growth prospects and widening interest rate spreads between the United States and Japan.</p><p><b>Fed willing to tolerate recession to control inflation</b></p><p>Regarding the U.S. macro-economy, most participants said that while some rate-sensitive spending categories-such as housing and business fixed investment-have begun to respond to tightening financial conditions, a significant portion of economic activity has yet to show much response. Participants noted that a period of below-trend real GDP growth will help reduce inflationary pressures and lay the foundation for continued achievement of the Fed's goals of maximum employment and price stability.</p><p>Regarding the labor market, the minutes said that the labor market will need to weaken to reduce high inflation. The unemployment rate is likely to rise, which largely reflects the impact of tighter monetary policy.</p><p>Additionally, as expected, the Fed's net income turned negative in September, the minutes said.</p><p><b>Market reaction</b></p><p>After the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting were released, U.S. stocks fluctuated, U.S. bond yields continued to fall, and the U.S. dollar changed little. Traders continue to bet on another 75 basis point rate hike from the Fed next month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4603614681af994a8a5937769cf18eab\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Analysis: Minutes Remain Hawkish</b></p><p>Former PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian believes:</p><p>As expected, the text is a bit hawkish on inflation's relationship to growth, jobs; Regarding the liquidity situation, it is only briefly mentioned. American financial blog Zero Hedge believes:</p><p>It is worth noting that the language of this Fed minutes hints at more rate hike until inflation is confident to fall back to 2%, and officials have delayed the idea of adjusting policy in the short term given their commitment to reducing inflation.</body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed meeting minutes: Recently reaching restrictive interest rates, more worried about too little rate hike</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed meeting minutes: Recently reaching restrictive interest rates, more worried about too little rate hike\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-13 07:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Fed officials continue to favor rate hike to restrictive interest rates in the short term, the minutes said. Many participants emphasized that the cost of doing too little to curb inflation outweighed the cost of doing too much. Several participants pointed out that it is very important to adjust the pace of further policy tightening to mitigate the risk of significant adverse effects on the economic outlook. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's September monetary policy meeting released on Wednesday, October 12th, showed that the Federal Reserve is inclined to achieve rate hike to restrictive interest rate levels (for the U.S. economy) in the short term.</p><p>The minutes said:</p><p>Given the broad-based and unacceptably high levels of inflation, higher-than-expected inflation news, and upside risks to the inflation outlook, participants said an intentional shift to a restrictive policy stance in the near term was consistent with risk management considerations. Participants felt that action was needed to maintain restrictive policies. Many participants said that once the policy reaches a sufficiently restrictive level, it would be appropriate to maintain that level for a period of time. Several members believe that the Fed's tightening actions need to be calibrated to mitigate risks. Officials stressed that even if the unemployment rate in the United States rises, the monetary policy path (current rate hike/tightening) should be maintained. Officials said rate hike would be slowed down at some point in time.</p><p>Several participants said risks would become more two-way as policies move into restrictive bands, the minutes showed:</p><p>Many participants emphasized that the cost of doing too little to curb inflation outweighed the cost of doing too much. Several of the participants emphasized that historical experience shows the danger of prematurely ending a period of tight monetary policy aimed at reducing inflation. Fed officials judged that they needed to pivot to and maintain a stricter policy stance to achieve their goal of reducing high inflation. Many participants upgraded their assessment of the Federal Funds rate path needed to achieve the Commission's objectives.</p><p>Some analysts believe that this implies that the Federal Reserve will continue its rate hike, regardless of the pressure rate hike brings to the US economy.</p><p><b>The Fed appears to be aware of the risks posed by aggressive rate hike</b></p><p>However, it seems that Fed officials are also aware of the global risks brought by the Fed's rate hike:</p><p>Several participants pointed out that, especially in the current highly uncertain global economic and financial environment, it is very important to adjust the pace of further policy tightening to mitigate the risk of significant adverse effects on the economic outlook. Participants judged that the pace and magnitude of the Fed's rate hike will continue to depend on the impact of upcoming information on economic activity and inflation outlook, as well as the risks to economic expectations.</p><p>In addition, Fed officials believe that the strengthening of the dollar largely reflects increased investor concerns about global growth prospects and widening interest rate spreads between the United States and Japan.</p><p><b>Fed willing to tolerate recession to control inflation</b></p><p>Regarding the U.S. macro-economy, most participants said that while some rate-sensitive spending categories-such as housing and business fixed investment-have begun to respond to tightening financial conditions, a significant portion of economic activity has yet to show much response. Participants noted that a period of below-trend real GDP growth will help reduce inflationary pressures and lay the foundation for continued achievement of the Fed's goals of maximum employment and price stability.</p><p>Regarding the labor market, the minutes said that the labor market will need to weaken to reduce high inflation. The unemployment rate is likely to rise, which largely reflects the impact of tighter monetary policy.</p><p>Additionally, as expected, the Fed's net income turned negative in September, the minutes said.</p><p><b>Market reaction</b></p><p>After the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting were released, U.S. stocks fluctuated, U.S. bond yields continued to fall, and the U.S. dollar changed little. Traders continue to bet on another 75 basis point rate hike from the Fed next month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4603614681af994a8a5937769cf18eab\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Analysis: Minutes Remain Hawkish</b></p><p>Former PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian believes:</p><p>As expected, the text is a bit hawkish on inflation's relationship to growth, jobs; Regarding the liquidity situation, it is only briefly mentioned. American financial blog Zero Hedge believes:</p><p>It is worth noting that the language of this Fed minutes hints at more rate hike until inflation is confident to fall back to 2%, and officials have delayed the idea of adjusting policy in the short term given their commitment to reducing inflation.</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3672229\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","BK4581":"高盛持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3672229","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2275667395","content_text":"纪要称，美联储官员继续倾向于短期内实现加息至限制性的利率水平。许多与会者强调，在抑制通胀方面采取太少行动的成本超过了采取太多行动的成本。多名与会者指出，调整进一步收紧政策的步伐以减轻对经济前景产生重大不利影响的风险非常重要。10月12日周三公布的美联储9月货币政策会议纪要显示，美联储倾向于短期内实现加息至（针对美国经济具有）限制性的利率水平。纪要称：鉴于通胀基础广泛且不可接受的高水平、高于预期的通胀消息以及通胀前景的上行风险，与会者表示，短期内有意转向限制性政策立场符合风险管理考虑。与会者们认为，需要采取行动，以便维持限制性的政策。许多与会者表示，一旦政策达到足够限制性的水平，在一段时间内维持该水平将是合适的。几名成员认为，需要校准美联储的紧缩行动，以缓和风险。官员们强调，哪怕美国失业率上升，也要维持（当前的加息/紧缩）货币政策路径。官员们称，将在某个时间点放慢加息步伐。纪要显示，几位与会者表示，随着政策进入限制性区间，风险将变得更加双向：许多与会者强调，在抑制通胀方面采取太少行动的成本超过了采取太多行动的成本。其中几位与会者强调，历史经验表明，过早结束旨在降低通胀的紧缩货币政策时期的危险。美联储官员判断，他们需要转向并维持更严格的政策立场，以实现降低高企通胀的目标。许多与会者上调了他们对实现委员会目标所需的联邦基金利率路径的评估。有分析认为，这暗示美联储将继续加息，而不会计较加息带给美国经济的压力。美联储似乎意识到了激进加息带来的风险不过，似乎美联储官员们也意识到了美联储加息带给全球的风险：几位与会者指出，特别是在当前高度不确定的全球经济和金融环境下，调整进一步收紧政策的步伐以减轻对经济前景产生重大不利影响的风险非常重要。与会者判断，美联储加息的速度和幅度将继续取决于即将到来的信息对经济活动和通胀前景的影响以及经济预期面临的风险。此外，美联储官员认为，美元走强在很大程度上反映了投资者对全球增长前景的担忧加剧以及美国和日本之间的利差扩大。为控制通胀，美联储愿容忍衰退关于美国宏观经济，大多数与会者表示，尽管一些对利率敏感的支出类别——例如住房和商业固定投资——已经开始对金融状况的收紧做出反应，但相当一部分经济活动尚未表现出太大的反应。 与会者指出，一段低于趋势的实际GDP增长将有助于减轻通胀压力，并为持续实现美联储最大就业和物价稳定的目标奠定基础。关于劳动力市场，纪要称，劳动力市场将需要走弱以降低高通胀。失业率可能会有所上升，这在很大程度上反映了紧缩货币政策的影响。此外，纪要称，正如预期的那样，美联储的净收入在9月份转为负值。市场反应美联储会议纪要公布后，美股震荡，美债收益率持续走低，美元变动不大。交易员继续押注美联储将在下个月再次加息75个基点。分析：会议纪要仍然鹰派PIMCO前CEO Mohamed El-Erian认为：正如预期的那样，关于通胀与增长、就业的关系，该文本有点鹰派；关于流动性状况，也只是一笔带过。美国金融博客Zero Hedge认为：值得注意的是，美联储这份纪要的措辞暗示了更多加息，直到通胀有信心回落至2%，鉴于官员们致力于降低通胀，他们在短期内推迟了调整政策的想法。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915418685,"gmtCreate":1665099152347,"gmtModify":1676537555545,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090574021972690","idStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915418685","repostId":"1106272938","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106272938","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1665055217,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1106272938?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-06 19:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"10,000-word exclusive interview with Arm CEO: Why \"harvest\" global technology giants?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106272938","media":"芯东西","summary":"Arm为何改变主意要上市？是否被缺芯潮殃及？如何看待《美国芯片法案》？有一家特殊的芯片公司，不曾设计一颗芯片，却处在庞大的科技世界的中心，存在于手机、电脑、电视、汽车甚至是驱动一切的数据中心里，为苹果","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Why did Arm change its mind about going public? Has it been affected by the lack of cores? What do you think of the American Chip Act?</b>There is a special chip company that has never designed a chip, but it is at the center of a huge technological world. It exists in mobile phones, computers, TVs, cars and even data centers that drive everything, providing<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>Waiting for chip giants to provide core underlying technical support.</p><p>It is Arm, a joint venture founded by Apple, later acquired by Japan's SoftBank Group, and almost sold itself to the American GPU chip giant<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>The UK chip design company.</p><p>Arm licenses instruction set architecture (ISA) to companies with chip design needs and collects usage fees from them. In this way, Arm's influence radiates around the world to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Most mobile devices represented by mobile phones are inseparable from Arm's technology.</p><p>On Tuesday, Nilay Patel, chief editor-in-chief of the American technology media The Verge, and Rene Haas, the new CEO of Arm, completed a conversation. Nilay started from the most basic issues step by step, talking about how Arm makes money, whether it is affected by the core shortage, and how to Look at competition with x86 and RISC-V instruction set architectures, IPO progress and other topics that have attracted much attention from the industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/341f1d637541db18858733dd7b413359\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"670\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Arm CEO Rene Haas</p><p>In February this year, on the same day that Nvidia announced that it would abandon the acquisition of Arm, Arm's board of directors announced the appointment of Rene Haas as the new CEO. Although Rene Haas has only served as Arm CEO for half a year, he has actually worked at Arm for nearly 9 years. In his view, Arm is the Switzerland of the electronics industry and will remain as neutral as possible and not try to pick winners.</p><p>He also shared his views on the American Chip Act, arguing that it is not only important to the United States, but that in 50 years, every continent should have world-class chip factories. \"We shouldn't worry about geopolitical concerns about how the world works, because it's like the oxygen for the world to run.\"</p><p><b>The following is a complete compilation of the interview record by Xinxi:</b></p><p><b><i>01.</i></b></p><p><b>\"Almost everyone you can think of is our customer.\"</b></p><p><b>Nilay: Now Arm is facing many changes. You also have plans to lead Arm to go public in the future, and you also recently received the earnings report for the last quarter. Arm is a very interesting company, so I think we can talk about it from the beginning. Arm is a key piece of the puzzle in the entire technology ecosystem. It affects almost everyone, but its image is opaque. Consumers do not have a direct relationship with Arm, but many other companies make a carrier in the middle. identity, so let's start from scratch, what exactly does Arm do?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>As you said, Arm is indeed not a well-known company, and the outside world doesn't know us, but we think we are still very important.</p><p>First of all, we are in the semiconductor value chain of the semiconductor world. You can see Arm's technology in almost all semiconductor products or OEM products, we have it in mobile phones, laptops, and smart TVs. Just by looking at my desk, there are almost dozens of things containing Arm processors.</p><p>Arm doesn't directly build products, nor does it produce chips, but builds the design inside the chip, and we license our design to people who want to build the final product. Our most famous product is the CPU, which is the brain of almost all types of electronic devices.</p><p>Since Arm doesn't make chips and licenses brains directly to willing people, Arm's brains are everywhere. Judging from the data of the last quarter, among all semiconductor companies and OEMs in the world, Arm Manufacturing delivered 7.4 billion chips with built-in Arm CPUs, GPUs or other technologies. This is a very large number, so we are in the semiconductor value chain, but we will not build any products, we are only responsible for design, especially the design processing of microprocessors.</p><p><b>Nilay: Who are your customers?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>This question is very interesting. In the electronics industry, it seems easier to say who isn't our customer, because almost anyone you can imagine, is our customer.</p><p>Our customers include Samsung,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>, GlobalFoundries and other companies that actually manufacture chips, and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>, AMD, Nvidia, Qualcomm,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>, when you go to other parts of the world, we still have<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>And ByteDance. Almost all of them are our customers.</p><p><b>Nilay: So how do you make money from these customers? Are they just buying licenses for the design? Or buy chip samples? Do they have to pay patent licensing fees? How exactly does this all work?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>Our business model is divided into two parts.</p><p>The first part is the upfront license fee. Only after the cooperative customer pays us this money can he obtain the right to use the technology, thus having the right to further design our technology.</p><p>The second part is that if those designs end up in production and form a final product, we charge a user fee per unit based on some mathematical algorithm related to the contract.</p><p>Therefore, it can be said that we have two sources of income, one is licensing income, and the other is royalty income.</p><p><b>Nilay: If I buy a Snapdragon chip at Qualcomm, do I need to pay you? Or does Qualcomm have to pay you? Or does someone else have to pay?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>You don't need to pay, but Qualcomm does. In the case you mentioned, Qualcomm needs to inform us of the number of chips you purchased. We and Qualcomm will have a pre-negotiated franchise rate, and Qualcomm will pay us according to the negotiated rate.</p><p><b>Nilay: Samsung is designing and producing its own chips for their own smartphones, and its departments must sign conditions with each other. If I purchase a Samsung phone with a Samsung Exynos chip instead of a Qualcomm chip, how will that money flow back to you?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>That's the beauty of Arm's business model. Qualcomm uses our technology, and so does Samsung. When the Galaxy phone is shipped, we will probably receive payment from Samsung. If this product is in cooperation with Qualcomm, then we will receive payment from Qualcomm.</p><p>In short, we will all get paid. This depends on the licensing situation between us and our partners. Usually, we will cooperate with the semiconductor departments of these companies. Take Samsung as an example. If we sign a contract with the chip department, the chip department will need to pay Arm.</p><p><b>Nilay: The last question at the top of the difficulty ladder. Apple offers a very unique license called the Architecture License. They completely design their own chips, and I don't feel like they use a lot of your designs, but it's Arm's intellectual property. So when I buy a MacBook Air (M2), how do you get paid?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>It's all similar in business logic, we sign contracts with companies like Apple who pay us copyright taxes just like everyone else.</p><p><b>Nilay: Can anyone get a license like Apple? Using your IP, but completely designing your own stuff?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>Architectural licensing basically gives companies the right to make what we call Arm-compatible processors. Anyone who does this can make minor modifications to the microarchitecture, which is actually how to physically put it on the chip.</p><p>But what these companies can't do is modify the CPU, which will make the chip unable to run Arm's instructions. And this is crucial because at the end of the day, we have to maintain software compatibility. Whether it is something we build ourselves or something built by a licensed partner, as long as we are running an Arm processor, it must meet the requirements of running Arm software. requirements.</p><p>We have built very good CPUs. I think it is very difficult to build a CPU that is different or better than ours and still complies with Arm standards. Of course, this may also be my own bias.</p><p>There were many people who did this in the past, but now there are fewer, because firstly, it is difficult to do it, and secondly, it is difficult to find people who do it. It is very difficult to build this kind of talent team. Most companies will say when faced with this road: \"If I build a SoC (system-on-a-chip) and I only have so many valuable engineers, then differentiated Arm CPU It may not be a very worthwhile place to put the energy into.\" Besides, they have other places that need to be invested in, such as camera, modem or IO support.</p><p><b>Nilay: When Apple or a licensee of another architecture delivers a product, do you have a team to verify that it's running the Arm instruction set and that they're not breaking the rules? Or do you just use the honor system so you don't mess with (Apple CEO) Tim Cook too much?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We have a set of requirements for this as well as a compliance suite that facilitates our testing to fundamentally verify that what they build is Arm compliant. We will test it to see if Arm instructions and code can be run, if the compiler is corrupt, or if the correct instructions cannot be recognized. So the short answer is, we do offer a set of compliance tests for all build designs based on architectural license.</p><p><b>Nilay: Aside from the Intel and AMD CPUs that people might come across because it's kind of opaque, I think the closed loop is where you really verify that this is the Arm stuff that works the way Arm works, and I think most people don't understand that, so I want to ask this set of questions and get a feel for the business.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>These are all very important issues. One of the things that has made us almost ubiquitous throughout history is that whether it's based on Arm CPU core licensing, or based on Arm instruction set architecture licensing, they need to run software for Arm instruction set architecture, and it doesn't break.</p><p>Arm has some failed CPUs that allow scaling, aka allowing customers to add custom instructions, and while that sounds innovative and cool, what really has to do with CPU architecture is letting developers know it will run.</p><p>If a developer is writing a piece of code for an OEM and has Arm embedded, the developer doesn't want to know, doesn't need to know, or even can't know that they're designing a thermostat with a Bob chip built in, and that Bob has some additional instructions. You need to take advantage of this because they may not know if other OEM devices have Arm chips that contain these instructions.</p><p>It is important to level the playing field and ensure that software datasets look the same. Our founders have done a fantastic job of sticking to that and making it feature quick. You can see that is really benefiting us right now.</p><p><b><i>02.</i></b></p><p><b>Stay neutral and don't try to pick winners</b></p><p><b>Nilay: Many of your customers have unavoidably fierce competitive relationships in multiple fields. I've talked to a lot of executives like you. In my opinion, they do much more interpersonal negotiation than engineering and research jobs. Is it true for you too? Do you consider yourself a business politician who ensures fairness to balance competition, or do you still focus more on processor design and development?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We must be deeply involved in all kinds of interpersonal negotiations, which is what we are going to do, but we also spend a lot of time and energy developing these CPU and software ecosystems to solve the problems of partners and really ensure that the product is in a leading position.</p><p>One difference is that we deal with everyone and have to be consistent in how we approach partnerships, which is really around access to technology, access to errors, and access to people.</p><p>The world depends on Arm, and as you said, we are a bit opaque. Saying on a podcast that the world depends on Arm, someone will want to say, \"I depend on you? I don't even know you!\" But we're really managing our relationship with our partners very seriously.</p><p><b>Nilay: Let me give you another simple example. I really find this example very enlightening. A few years ago, we talked to people running HDMI (High Definition Multimedia Interface), and they set up the PlayStation (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNE\">Sony</a>A home game console released in Japan in 1994) is the industry standard for plugging into a TV. Of course, that's why HDMI doesn't work perfectly when your remote control can control everything on your TV. Frankly speaking, they have raised their hands and surrendered: \"This problem is too difficult to solve. No one wants to solve it. Everyone is messing up.\" From a political perspective, I can see why that's their answer, because it's the lowest bet, right? I just want to plug my DVD player into the TV and let the remote control control the work, but the political nature inside is insurmountable. Besides, it is not an industry standard organization, so it needs to take great risks. Arm is a company that needs to report its earnings to shareholders. If it wants to go public, it must increase its earnings for its shareholders. How will you deal with the friction and tension between them?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We're really trying to be as neutral as possible. We are called the \"Switzerland of the electronics industry\" (known for its neutrality), which is a good comparison. We don't try to pick winners, we dabble in various sub-ecosystems within the ecosystem. If you start at the bottom of the semiconductor chain, all the chipmakers like Global Foundries, Samsung, TSMC, Intel, you realize that you have to work with all of them.</p><p>We have to ensure that our technology can be built on every semiconductor process in the world, and that requires investment from all these partners. And then, all the way up, when you think about Android, Linux, Windows, and all the major operating systems that we support, we have to make sure that we're among them.</p><p>We really try not to give ourselves an edge in the competition between one side and another. I'm not sure how we'll end up getting there, but that goal means we're standing on the shoulders of a pretty large ecosystem.</p><p>It's an ecosystem with design tools, manufacturing processes, software operating systems, and middleware. We often cooperate with relevant industry chain manufacturers and create them. We don't really work much with standards bodies, but we do work a lot with all the vendors I just mentioned.</p><p>We make sure to understand all the things they're trying to do from a roadmap perspective to make sure we're as compliant as possible. In the final analysis, we license the technology to the people who build the chips, and the people who build the chips want to have the widest opportunity in the range of chips that can be made.</p><p><b><i>03.</i></b></p><p><b>With a team size of nearly 6,000 people, how does Rene Haas make decisions?</b></p><p><b>Nilay: I want to learn about other basics of Arm, how many employees does Arm have?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>The last number I saw was probably around 5,800, but with contractors added, it could be over 6,000.</p><p><b>Nilay: How are they structured? Is it all chip design, or is there a lawyer? Is the ratio of patent attorneys to chip designers 1: 1? How does this work?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>Certainly not lawyers and engineers 1: 1, that's all I can say.</p><p><b>Nilay: Some companies are 1: 1 lawyers and engineers.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We're far from that. Our staff are mainly engineers, most of whom are based in the UK. We have several different engineering sites in different parts of the UK, France and Northern Europe; There are also several design centers in Arizona and Texas; There are also quite a few design engineers in Bangalore and Noida, India.</p><p>In contrast, our legal department is very small. If shown in thumbnail scale, the ratio of engineers to lawyers is quite large. We've done a really good job in how the licensing model works and in protecting intellectual property. While there isn't a huge legal department, there do be a lot of engineers because these products are really hard to make.</p><p><b>Nilay: Who reports to you? How is your team structured?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I am the CEO, and we also have the chief financial officer, the chief personnel officer and the person in charge of legal reporting. The whole is organized around business departments, forming a vertical business structure. We have automotive, Internet of Things (IoT), infrastructure, and client businesses, as well as chief architects, sales executives, and engineering executives, who also report to me. As I listed, there are a lot of direct reports. Arm is primarily people-oriented and operates around engineering, people, legal, and finance in the business.</p><p><b>Nilay: This question is a classic question that I often ask others. You have been at Arm for 9 years and have been CEO for 6 months. How did you make your decision? What is your framework?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I have to lie a little about having dinner with Tony Fadell, whom I know you interviewed a while back, and I appreciate his habit of contrasting opinion-based decision-making with data-based decision-making. What I'm trying to say is that the greater your beard and hair, the more open you are to opinion-based decisions. Human history repeats itself because we are humans and humans repeat the same successes and mistakes.</p><p>And I am a mixture of opinion and data, and the more experienced I am, the more I rely on intuition. Experience helps. For those fans: Why Tom<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRC\">Brady</a>Still playing quarterback at 45, even though physically, he plays with people half his age? Because it was hard to lie to him, he saw everything. And business is far more complicated than professional football.</p><p>So, the short answer to your question is data and opinion, both of which I rely on, but right now probably opinion helps me more than data because my intuition is more visual.</p><p><b>Nilay: My understanding of Tom Brady is that he doesn't eat any tomatoes and eats avocado ice cream every day, are those on your menu too?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>He's a bit like Benjamin Barton, and every time I look at him, he gets younger and younger. I also have strange eating habits. The British will know that I eat yogurt and granola for lunch every day. My assistant will almost preemptively say, \"I put your yogurt in the fridge. It has your name on it.\"</p><p>Not that I would put myself in the super successful category, but I do see this from other leaders, and these things reduce the number of decisions you have to make, and I have always found it helpful to me personally.</p><p>I wear the same clothes. I eat the same food. It's something I love and don't worry about it.</p><p><b>Nilay: Now let's talk about a big decision. As we all know, Arm was involved in this storm of SoftBank Vision Fund. SoftBank raised billions of dollars for the Vision Fund. The direct acquisition of Arm is a big deal for SoftBank. They have invested in many companies and the Vision Fund is a bit volatile. Trying to sell it to Nvidia when it is stable. The industry basically lobbied against the deal as much as it could, saying, \"We don't want Nvidia to have this core CPU technology, don't do it.\" The government also came forward and said it would block the deal, and SoftBank eventually gave up.</b></p><p><b>And then you come in as the new CEO and say to take the company public, which is a big flip. Your predecessor was firmly opposed to listing Arm because of what we talked about before: the pressure to increase revenue, against the risks of a neutral and fair supplier model, after all, you can increase revenue through special deals. These pressures will come, but it will all be your decision. How did you make this decision?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We announced this shift at the end of last year when the Nvidia deal largely fell apart. After I took over in mid-February and wrapped up our financial year in March, we were finally able to talk about financial results, something we haven't done in a while.</p><p>During the Nvidia period, we were very low-key, and when we announced our revenue for the year, we set a record of over $2 billion-$2.6 billion, and we've never done more than $2 billion in the past. Our operating margin is close to 40%, but almost everyone outside believes that we are losing money because we are very low-key. If you fast forward to this quarter, it's even higher than where we ended last year: more than 50% and $700 million in revenue, of which $450 million was royalties.</p><p>My several phone calls with analysts and journalists were like, \"Where did this come from? What funny math are you doing? Is this some form of equation?\" But actually, we know we're doing a good job.</p><p>Soon after SoftBank acquired Arm, we restructured and created two business units, and I took over Classic Arm and started pivoting to other markets. This pivot is not only a business model, but also a product. We know there are some changes happening in the data center, TSMC is doing a really good job with processing, and we're making good progress with software workloads. We think we can gain something in the hyperscale market if we push our investments into some specific directives, such as SME and SVE, which are vector scaling of specific workloads on hyperscale computers.</p><p><b>Nilay: To make it clear to everyone, that's the cloud computing market, that's your Google Cloud, AWS stuff.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>That's your cloud. AWS is a valued partner for us. They announced Graviton2 along with some pretty jaw-dropping numbers, with a 40% price performance improvement relative to other architectures. So we diversify our business by addressing this not only by developing different products, but also through different parts of the business model strategy.</p><p>We know our business is going to be fine. All the financial results that you're seeing right now are fantastic, the team is doing a fantastic job with this, and these really are all from work that was done a few years ago, and you don't see royalty results per unit overnight.</p><p>We develop IP, and then the IP has to be handed over to the customer, and they have to make a chip, and that chip has to go into a product, and the product has to be qualified. All of this can take 3 to 4 years, and we feel good about where we are going, and we feel good about areas that we have been investing in, such as cloud, automotive and IoT. These are all large long-term growth areas that I think we're a great fit in.</p><p><b>Nilay: You made some bets two years ago that have now paid off handsomely, do you think investor pressure between quarters will change the way you run your company?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I think any time you're a public company, that's just part of the way the world works. I can't talk too much about what life is going to be like as a public company though, I'm subject to very strict orders to stay in my area and can't talk too much.</p><p><b>Nilay: One of the few lawyers in the firm is running into the room.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>Haha, so I can't really say much about it. But I can say we are very confident in the long-term growth of the markets involved.</p><p><b><i>04.</i></b></p><p><b>For Arm, cars will be a big market</b></p><p><b>Nilay: You just expressed confidence in automotive, IoT, and cloud. The cloud market exists and is growing, and Arm has done something about it. I've talked to a lot of CEOs in the automotive industry, and we spent a lot of time on The Verge cast talking about smart homes and the Internet of Things. But those markets haven't really turned around, and as Arm CEO, can you push that? Or is it more like \"we just need to prepare the design and product for the car to truly become a network computer on wheels\"?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>When people think of electronic devices in cars, they automatically turn to autonomous driving, etc. Think about what's inside the car, and the number of processes in the car. The dashboard is all digital and computerized, the drivetrain, and whatever has to do with the mirrors and brakes, all of which are rapidly moving to and operating on the Arm. A lot of what's happening in smart cars is moving towards Arm.</p><p>In the powertrain, you have many old standalone electronic control units (ECUs), they may have an old proprietary microcontroller and are not identical to the rest of the car. All of these ECUs are being redesigned, inside each car, there may be 50-70 ECUs, and each one may have an old proprietary microcontroller, they don't have connections, don't have a memory management unit. Therefore, with the addition of automatic and advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), cars can become highly connected devices, which is an area Arm wants to develop.</p><p>To us, cars are a bit of a sandbox of multiple technologies: dash, drivetrain, drivetrain/ECU. By the way, autonomy is a huge opportunity for us.</p><p>Getting back to the data center space, in terms of computing, what really matters in a car is performance and efficiency, you can't have a server in your trunk running an electric car, and some cars today are like that. That will improve over time, and we are very optimistic about the automotive market, where we will grow very fast as well.</p><p><b>Nilay: So, are you going to ask some of your engineers to say, go find ECUs, engine controllers or body control modules that can work across cars, so that someone at Nvidia can come and get the license and sell it to Ford?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>This is actually already happening. These CPU efficiency, power, and functional safety for cars are all important. You must have all the safeguards in place to ensure that it can operate safely. Some people do this in software through compute libraries, but most people prefer to do this in hardware, where it is safer and more efficient to perform.</p><p>We have developed automotive processors and graphics processors with embedded functional safety. Before we didn't do that, before we would basically just roll out a generic thing to use anywhere you want. It's one of the things that we've made significant changes in the last few years.</p><p><b>Nilay: We're talking about the future now. Let's bring the topic back to the present. We have been in a state of chip shortage for a long time, and this \"core shortage\" may not end. Both Intel and Nvidia had less than satisfactory quarterly results, and Intel said they would actually raise prices. Where would you be in a chip shortage? Is that something that's affecting you right now? Is that something you see coming and going? You're kind of out of touch with this actual part.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We're out of the idea of not making anything, but we do have to do with chips again, and our royalty model has to do with components that people order.</p><p>Going back to the earlier discussion, we are very diverse in terms of end markets. Another thing that's happening is that more and more CPUs are being used in these SoCs. The application processor of the mobile phone may use one CPU, while the cluster used for computing is now 9 or 10 different CPUs. You have 10 CPUs, which is just the application processor (AP), and then consider touch sensors, monitors and cameras. We're seeing that although sales in certain markets such as smartphones have been heading towards weakness, we've been protected by it from a product direction perspective.</p><p><b>Nilay: Did you hear our episode with Willy Shih? Here he is, telling us about the toilet paper, and then talking about the manufacture of chips and LCD monitors. Because they had too many SKUs and sold too many types of paper, they decided to reduce the types of toilet paper. In the end, this decision solved a large part of the problem.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>right. So now think about a car that needs all sorts of diodes, capacitors, resistors, and thermal sensors, not just because it's hard to get 3nm, but it's hard to build a fabs.</p><p>You can tell by my hair color that I've been in this industry for a long time. I've been in a business cycle. People start to stop R&D and slow down projects. They gradually stop trying new things and stop innovating.</p><p>I think it's because everything is going digital, the super high demand for electronics and how it's going to change our lives. What are our metrics? Licensing and new design beginnings have never been better for us because it is across all markets.</p><p><b><i>05.</i></b></p><p><b>\"In 50 years, every continent should have world-class fabs\"</b></p><p><b>Nilay: What you're saying is one of the reasons why R&D is picking up pace. The world is beginning to re-recognize the prospect of globalization, and the world is no longer so peaceful. The U.S. just passed the Chip Act to really incentivize chip manufacturing and various design investments. TSMC is building in the U.S., and Intel just broke ground on a new factory in Ohio. Do you see considering that everyone knows that we rely heavily on a few fabs in Taiwan, which is a geopolitical hotspot. We need to transfer this critical technological dependence to our own countries. Is this something you would be involved in, or are you just watching?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We will definitely be involved in this. As long as we can expand the need for this by talking to political officials in any country, we will help. It's not just an Arm issue, it's an industry issue. A single point of failure in anything you're doing is not a good thing, the pandemic has exposed a lot and people are starting to keep their eyes open to what things are the real problem. I am so grateful to the people who are pushing the chip bill, and that's really very important.</p><p>Not only is this important for the United States, every continent should have its own world-class wafer fab in the next 50 years from now. We don't have to worry about geopolitics, the fabs will be like the oxygen for the world to revolve after.</p><p><b>Nilay: Now the cutting-edge process nodes are mainly controlled by TSMC, which is far ahead with 5nm and 3nm technologies. Few people can compete at this level. Your smartphones use the most cutting-edge technologies, while those used in cars are basically mature process nodes (40nm, 14nm). The processes are severely limited, and no one is investing in building these fabs anymore. What do you think of this outcome? What do you think of this strict restriction on TSMC, which has cutting-edge technology? Everyone wants to improve building capabilities on these things, but no one wants to improve building capabilities for old things.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I'm not a manufacturing expert, but what I can tell you is that we're seeing a lot getting done about how to convert certain fabs into new jobs.</p><p>Just like you said it was. People are usually a little reluctant to put a lot of money into this, and you might think that you can convert the fab that we are building into some kind of process technology and turn it into a logic fab? Is there a storage fab that can be converted to a logic fab? But this is a very complicated problem because there are only so many factories in the world, and there are only so many people who know how to build these things, and they are all public companies and have to go and make money, in short, it's a very complicated matrix.</p><p>Thirty years ago, Japan's logic fabs were world-class and spread across the country. Now that number has basically dropped to zero. Japan is looking for ways to change that to bring more fabs back online. I think you're going to see a lot of things in the U.S. in other countries that have done the chip bill and that sort of thing. I think South Korea's fabs have huge capabilities, but it is also a complicated and difficult problem.</p><p><b><i>06.</i></b></p><p><b>\"Intel CEO did a lot of the right things\"</b></p><p><b>Nilay: How dependent is Arm on TSMC? It feels like a lot of companies are realizing that they really depend on one company. It's an industry leader for a reason, but there's a lot of dependency there. Have you considered this dependency when designing new processor types or architectures?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We work closely with TSMC. All fabs are important to us, and Arm will remain neutral.</p><p>Seriously, they all matter. In an ideal world, we have a lot of people who can build cutting-edge technology. Generally speaking, in smart phones and data centers, it is usually the most cutting-edge technology, because everyone is really trying to maximize performance as much as possible, which is not the case in automotive and industrial fields. Therefore, any fab that adopts cutting-edge processes is very important to us.</p><p><b>Nilay: As we all know, Intel has long been an integrated design and fab enterprise. They were basically blown away by TSMC, and now, they have a new CEO who is breaking that with plans to open up their factories to others. You just said that Intel is a customer, are you working with them?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We wanted TSMC to make a lot of Arm products, and they did. We expect Intel to do the same.</p><p><b>Nilay: Are you optimistic that Intel can do that?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I think (Intel CEO) Pat has done a lot of things right. His work is hard and extremely well done, and we are more than willing to do more with him.</p><p><b>Nilay: Another political answer, but I have to ask. In terms of the chip bill, people are very excited about the passage and signing of the bill. Intel has received a lot of criticism for announcing cuts in capital expenditures and increased Dividend rather than putting it into fabs. Broadly speaking, do you think this is the right move? What timing should we look for for fabs in the US?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I wouldn't doubt Pat's decisions about how he spends his money. Getting back to what you said, we're talking about a single point of failure. I feel like we need to move quickly, get these facilities up and running as quickly as possible, get them online, build more redundancy, and reduce the risk of single points of failure. So we need more fabs.</p><p><b>Nilay: What kind of timing do you make your decisions based on? If a bill is passed today, or someone announces a new fab today, and we won't see it for five years, how do you see the timing of your decision?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>After six months as CEO, I am still learning, and I have a lot of responsibilities. One of the biggest responsibilities is to think about the problems five years from now.</p><p>Because of the way our business operates, the process from designing the product to seeing the revenue is quite long. We are thinking about where the opportunities are, where investments need to be made, where the threats are, and the direction of system and software design.</p><p>Most of my energy is spent thinking about what the world will look like in 2025 and 2026, not next quarter.</p><p><b><i>07.</i></b></p><p><b>Stay tuned to PC, Arm is making a lot of progress</b></p><p><b>Nilay: There are some long-term bets that are more focused on consumers than replacing servers in the trunk of a car. At present, the hottest trend related to Arm is that Apple has shifted from Intel x86 processors to self-developed M-series processors licensed based on the Arm instruction set architecture to support their Macs, which not only improves battery life and performance, but also helps Apple reduce procurement costs. Now, thanks to these chips, Mac is basically the best laptop you can buy. This reflects that Arm architecture processors can also achieve great success in the PC market. Can Arm help other industries do these things? Or just design, and hope that Qualcomm can make something that allows Microsoft and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell</a>A chip that can do this too? From your perspective, how do you see the relationship with the industry?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I think we can do more, and probably need to do more. It's not because we need to help the industry, but because these products are really complicated to build.</p><p>Let's talk about architectural licensing first. Previously, many manufacturers believed that you needed to obtain architectural licenses to build a better CPU to compete with Arm. However, the IPC instructions per clock of the microprocessor are only one aspect that can really change the design. Memory subsystems, interconnects, The size of the cache, how it interfaces with the rest of the SoC, and ensuring that the SoC is in a multi-chip package with chip and chip interconnects.</p><p>Some clients are very good at these things and can figure it out, so they don't need too much help from us. But as time goes on, more and more businesses will need Arm to do more, and that's a trend we're watching very closely.</p><p><b>Nilay: From your point of view, as long as it's all Arm chips, it doesn't matter who wins, does it? If Apple takes 100% of the laptop market, that's great for you. If Microsoft,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">Hewlett Packard</a>And Qualcomm to be able to pair competitive Windows on Arm laptops and take a 50% share, you can still get paid. Does it feel like whoever wins, you will win?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>If the product ships with the Arm instruction set architecture, that's a good thing for us, if an alternative device is used, it means it doesn't use the Arm instruction set architecture, which is not so good for us.</p><p>When I first took office, I took a small moniker for my own name on the website and worked with the PR team to use the slogan \"Arm will show up wherever computing happens\". It doesn't matter a thermostat or microwave oven, Polycom, or a smart TV, laptop, etc., these are all based on Arm.</p><p><b>Nilay: You just said where the computing happens, for most people, the computing happens on their laptops and desktops. I've been hearing about Windows on Arm (WoA) for 13 years and it didn't happen, but are you just content to let Apple eat the industry? Because there are still other people's instruction sets in this extremely huge industry, such as Intel's instruction set.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I used to work for a company that developed Windows RT as the general manager of that product line. Before joining Arm, I worked at Nvidia for many years (7 years as VP and General Manager of the Computing Products Business Unit at Nvidia), and we made great progress on this because we felt the real tipping point was there.</p><p>The turning point did exist, and during my first news interview on my Windows RT laptop, I remember meeting with a group of reporters and the first question they asked me was: \"Does it run iTunes?\" We're like, \"Ah, shit. No.\" It doesn't run because we don't have ports and Apple isn't helping us.</p><p>Fast forward to 10 years later, streaming audio has arrived, and no one really cares about these apps. If you consider all the apps that run on a PC or phone, it's hard to say \"OK, what native apps aren't really running on Arm?\" They were almost all there.</p><p>Stay tuned for the PC thing. We are making a lot of progress. You can see what the features are through laptops in other ecosystems. I think it's a wake-up call for the industry in terms of the potential of these features, and we're going to stick with it.</p><p><b>Nilay: That wake-up call was due to a very wealthy company spending a lot of money on your instruction set customization, right? That's their leverage. Are you saying that we as Arm can develop products that are as efficient per watt as M-series chips and then sell those designs to Qualcomm? Or does it come down to Qualcomm-which I believe also has architectural licenses-doing it itself?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I'm 100% confident of that. You don't need a schema license to do this.</p><p><b><i>08.</i></b></p><p><b>How to win in GPU?</b></p><p><b>Nilay: On the other hand there are laptops, desktops, and even automakers. I went to sit in a (American BEV) Rivian, and I was told that GPUs and Unreal Engines drive cars. Graphics performance has become the point of differentiation for various products in the industry, and Arm has a well-named new GPU, Immortalis. Apple is not using your GPU. If you think about the big GPU vendors, they don't really think about performance per watt, do they? With high-end Nvidia cards, you just need to have a nuclear reactor in the basement to run that thing, which is great. It looks good. How will you win in GPU?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>When you count it by units, we're actually the # 1 supplier of GPUs on the planet. I remember that during the Nvidia acquisition, its CEO Jensen Huang put forward a key point: We will be faithful to our review, and performance per watt matters. We're not going to risk doing a hundred watt TDP GPU and try to make a difference in that space. We're going to try in the 1 watt range, optimizing in that range. Then there are certain areas where you can start doing more in terms of multiple GPUs.</p><p>We're starting to see people thinking about doing machine learning extensions and possibly doing these things inside the GPU. This is interesting because GPUs can benefit from some level of AI and machine learning to do shader drawing in a more efficient way. In the meantime, you can start working or move ML workloads onto the GPU. There's a lot of interesting innovations that will be able to happen on our GPUs, and we're investing heavily in that space. To be clear, we will remain in an area where performance and efficiency matter.</p><p><b>Nilay: Yeah, you deliver a lot of GPUs. It is part of the SoC package for many customers. Performance per watt leads for customers with their own GPU or their own GPU extensions. Is it the same deal that doesn't matter at the end of the day because they are shipping the Arm instruction set architecture and you still get paid? Or is it \"we have to stay competitive here or they will leave altogether\"?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>The GPU is slightly different from the CPU because the API is decimative. Performance per watt does matter. We do a lot to level the competition, and with Immortalis, are leading the way in many areas. Another thing that is very critical for these GPUs is the efficiency of the interface between the CPU and the GPU, which is also an area where we invest heavily, but we have to be vigilant in the GPU market, which is, as you said, very competitive. You let people do it themselves, you let other third parties do the product. At the same time, this is an area that we are very focused on, so we will invest. I think machine learning AI vectors for future use with GPUs are a huge opportunity for us.</p><p><b>Nilay: GPUs are a huge investment. You have to spend a lot of money to compete and win the design. Are you making this investment because you can win back these products and get more from other custom GPUs over time? Or just to be competitive, do you need competitive GPUs?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I go back to machine learning and artificial intelligence. If you have a heterogeneous computing system, and you have a CPU, GPU, and NPU, I think at some point in time the compiler will get smart enough that they may point to parts of the code that can run better on the GPU versus the CPU.</p><p>If you look at the whole cluster as a complete subsystem, I think there are long-term benefits from that. For us, especially when designing a system-on-chip, we're trying to make all sorts of major trade-offs. Sometimes I don't want that workload to run on the CPU because it consumes unnecessary power and I probably have transistors in the GPU that I might be able to use if I wasn't drawing. We think GPUs are a very critical strategic component.</p><p><b><i>09.</i></b></p><p><b>Only Arm and RISC-V options</b></p><p><b>Nilay: GPU competitors, in one aspect, are obvious. CPU competitors seem more difficult to identify, who are your competitors?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>In terms of CPU? I think there are probably only two options, which is biased, but I don't even think there's a real choice.</p><p>From an instruction set architecture perspective, if you want to build an SoC based on x86, there are only two companies in the world that will do it for you: AMD or Intel. Then there's RISC-V, which is a completely different part because it's open source and many different versions exist.</p><p>RISC-V is a scalable processor, which means that its strengths are its weaknesses. In my opinion, scalability leads to fragmentation. I think it hurts them in terms of getting any kind of software ecosystem. It's really hard to look around and say, \"What are the major software ecosystems that run consistently on RISC-V processors?\" No.</p><p>So, where do we see RISC-V in the system-on-chip today? It is located in the deep embedded part of the chip, unaware of its existence by external programmers.</p><p>Here's an analogy I can give. If you put something in the microwave and press the start button on the 30-second timer, that display may be Arm, because there may be a small piece of open-source application code running on it. The timer that actually turns the oven on and turns it off after 30 seconds might be RISC-V.</p><p>These are really the only two options available. I mean, all of these are small companies, but those companies really don't have a lot of appeal in terms of market share.</p><p><b>Nilay: Do you see Arm and RISC-V retiring out the outdated x86 world?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>x86 has been around for a long time and has a very strong installed base, and I certainly don't want to do anything to belittle what they are doing. I think the challenge with x86 is that it only comes from two companies, which in itself is a limiting factor in terms of how far it can go.</p><p><b>Nilay: These two companies, Intel and AMD, both have their own fabs, as does TSMC. There's another manufacturing conundrum, and over time, these manufacturers seem to say, \"Look, we're really good at Arm. We're going to be good at RISC-V, we don't want to be good at x86 anymore.\"</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I'd even wonder if they're really pretty good at Arm already. Needless to say, this is not easy.</p><p><b>Nilay: Are there any other competitors like RISC-V? I mean, RISC-V is another thing like Windows on Arm. I've heard about it for a decade and it seems to be in some of the apps you're talking about.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>It's all about software. At the end of the day, it's about having a rich ecosystem of developers who can take advantage of writing software. For us, we think there are 15 to 25 million developers programming on Arm. Some people know they are programming on Arm because they take advantage of the instruction set, but there are others who don't because it's abstracted out. The compiler and open source libraries are there, which makes it easy to run.</p><p>For example: Smart TVs. If you try to write new menus for smart TVs and try to link to the version of Android that is essentially the underlying kernel, it's Arm. It's all optimized for Arm. In terms of self-reporting, this is a big plus. These libraries all exist and have been optimized. Let's say you tried it on RISC-V. If Company A adds 17 new instructions to make their RISC-V look a little different, then developers won't know this. How will developers take advantage of this? RISC-V may eventually be reduced to the lowest common denominator.</p><p><b>Nilay: A few months ago, Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon participated in this show. I asked him the same Windows on Arm question, and he kind of blamed the software developers, saying, \"Look, Microsoft,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>And other big independent software vendors have to join, they have to make these things quickly. \" You just said it's all about software, did you spend time with those companies saying, \"Look, you have to shift your focus to the future, this is Arm?\"</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>By these companies do you mean Microsoft or Adobe?</p><p><b>Nilay: Both.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>Yeah, yeah. We spend a lot of time on both, and that's where the battle is ultimately to win. You've been looking at it like me for 10, 12 years, and it's closer than ever because not only is there more work being done on the original apps, but more of these native apps have been written for Arm.</p><p>Take a look at the two different operating systems in the world. Other operating systems use their names in their code. View all Microsoft applications running only on their system. They are all ported in this way, and as a result, all these Microsoft apps can run on your phone. We're pretty much the same, and I think the turning point will come when there's a lot of pretty good CPU products on the market that can compete with others. As far as your point is concerned, the product proves that you don't have to sacrifice performance and game-changing battery life in form factor.</p><p><b><i>10.</i></b></p><p><b>Epilogue: What's next for Arm?</b></p><p><b>Nilay: I always ask people what's next for their company, but I'll ask you a more specific question. You announced that Arm will go public in March 2023. As the time approaches, can you deliver on this goal?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>Unfortunately, we are at a stage right now where I can't give too much away.</p><p><b>Nilay: Okay, what's next for Arm?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We will continue to invest in the areas I mentioned. We think some of the topics that we just talked about do have strong growth: those complex packaging systems and complex designs. We're trying to find capabilities to offer more to the industry because I think there's a huge opportunity there.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1584082462595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>10,000-word exclusive interview with Arm CEO: Why \"harvest\" global technology giants?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n10,000-word exclusive interview with Arm CEO: Why \"harvest\" global technology giants?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">芯东西</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-06 19:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Why did Arm change its mind about going public? Has it been affected by the lack of cores? What do you think of the American Chip Act?</b>There is a special chip company that has never designed a chip, but it is at the center of a huge technological world. It exists in mobile phones, computers, TVs, cars and even data centers that drive everything, providing<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>Waiting for chip giants to provide core underlying technical support.</p><p>It is Arm, a joint venture founded by Apple, later acquired by Japan's SoftBank Group, and almost sold itself to the American GPU chip giant<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>The UK chip design company.</p><p>Arm licenses instruction set architecture (ISA) to companies with chip design needs and collects usage fees from them. In this way, Arm's influence radiates around the world to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Most mobile devices represented by mobile phones are inseparable from Arm's technology.</p><p>On Tuesday, Nilay Patel, chief editor-in-chief of the American technology media The Verge, and Rene Haas, the new CEO of Arm, completed a conversation. Nilay started from the most basic issues step by step, talking about how Arm makes money, whether it is affected by the core shortage, and how to Look at competition with x86 and RISC-V instruction set architectures, IPO progress and other topics that have attracted much attention from the industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/341f1d637541db18858733dd7b413359\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"670\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Arm CEO Rene Haas</p><p>In February this year, on the same day that Nvidia announced that it would abandon the acquisition of Arm, Arm's board of directors announced the appointment of Rene Haas as the new CEO. Although Rene Haas has only served as Arm CEO for half a year, he has actually worked at Arm for nearly 9 years. In his view, Arm is the Switzerland of the electronics industry and will remain as neutral as possible and not try to pick winners.</p><p>He also shared his views on the American Chip Act, arguing that it is not only important to the United States, but that in 50 years, every continent should have world-class chip factories. \"We shouldn't worry about geopolitical concerns about how the world works, because it's like the oxygen for the world to run.\"</p><p><b>The following is a complete compilation of the interview record by Xinxi:</b></p><p><b><i>01.</i></b></p><p><b>\"Almost everyone you can think of is our customer.\"</b></p><p><b>Nilay: Now Arm is facing many changes. You also have plans to lead Arm to go public in the future, and you also recently received the earnings report for the last quarter. Arm is a very interesting company, so I think we can talk about it from the beginning. Arm is a key piece of the puzzle in the entire technology ecosystem. It affects almost everyone, but its image is opaque. Consumers do not have a direct relationship with Arm, but many other companies make a carrier in the middle. identity, so let's start from scratch, what exactly does Arm do?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>As you said, Arm is indeed not a well-known company, and the outside world doesn't know us, but we think we are still very important.</p><p>First of all, we are in the semiconductor value chain of the semiconductor world. You can see Arm's technology in almost all semiconductor products or OEM products, we have it in mobile phones, laptops, and smart TVs. Just by looking at my desk, there are almost dozens of things containing Arm processors.</p><p>Arm doesn't directly build products, nor does it produce chips, but builds the design inside the chip, and we license our design to people who want to build the final product. Our most famous product is the CPU, which is the brain of almost all types of electronic devices.</p><p>Since Arm doesn't make chips and licenses brains directly to willing people, Arm's brains are everywhere. Judging from the data of the last quarter, among all semiconductor companies and OEMs in the world, Arm Manufacturing delivered 7.4 billion chips with built-in Arm CPUs, GPUs or other technologies. This is a very large number, so we are in the semiconductor value chain, but we will not build any products, we are only responsible for design, especially the design processing of microprocessors.</p><p><b>Nilay: Who are your customers?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>This question is very interesting. In the electronics industry, it seems easier to say who isn't our customer, because almost anyone you can imagine, is our customer.</p><p>Our customers include Samsung,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>, GlobalFoundries and other companies that actually manufacture chips, and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>, AMD, Nvidia, Qualcomm,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>, when you go to other parts of the world, we still have<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>And ByteDance. Almost all of them are our customers.</p><p><b>Nilay: So how do you make money from these customers? Are they just buying licenses for the design? Or buy chip samples? Do they have to pay patent licensing fees? How exactly does this all work?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>Our business model is divided into two parts.</p><p>The first part is the upfront license fee. Only after the cooperative customer pays us this money can he obtain the right to use the technology, thus having the right to further design our technology.</p><p>The second part is that if those designs end up in production and form a final product, we charge a user fee per unit based on some mathematical algorithm related to the contract.</p><p>Therefore, it can be said that we have two sources of income, one is licensing income, and the other is royalty income.</p><p><b>Nilay: If I buy a Snapdragon chip at Qualcomm, do I need to pay you? Or does Qualcomm have to pay you? Or does someone else have to pay?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>You don't need to pay, but Qualcomm does. In the case you mentioned, Qualcomm needs to inform us of the number of chips you purchased. We and Qualcomm will have a pre-negotiated franchise rate, and Qualcomm will pay us according to the negotiated rate.</p><p><b>Nilay: Samsung is designing and producing its own chips for their own smartphones, and its departments must sign conditions with each other. If I purchase a Samsung phone with a Samsung Exynos chip instead of a Qualcomm chip, how will that money flow back to you?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>That's the beauty of Arm's business model. Qualcomm uses our technology, and so does Samsung. When the Galaxy phone is shipped, we will probably receive payment from Samsung. If this product is in cooperation with Qualcomm, then we will receive payment from Qualcomm.</p><p>In short, we will all get paid. This depends on the licensing situation between us and our partners. Usually, we will cooperate with the semiconductor departments of these companies. Take Samsung as an example. If we sign a contract with the chip department, the chip department will need to pay Arm.</p><p><b>Nilay: The last question at the top of the difficulty ladder. Apple offers a very unique license called the Architecture License. They completely design their own chips, and I don't feel like they use a lot of your designs, but it's Arm's intellectual property. So when I buy a MacBook Air (M2), how do you get paid?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>It's all similar in business logic, we sign contracts with companies like Apple who pay us copyright taxes just like everyone else.</p><p><b>Nilay: Can anyone get a license like Apple? Using your IP, but completely designing your own stuff?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>Architectural licensing basically gives companies the right to make what we call Arm-compatible processors. Anyone who does this can make minor modifications to the microarchitecture, which is actually how to physically put it on the chip.</p><p>But what these companies can't do is modify the CPU, which will make the chip unable to run Arm's instructions. And this is crucial because at the end of the day, we have to maintain software compatibility. Whether it is something we build ourselves or something built by a licensed partner, as long as we are running an Arm processor, it must meet the requirements of running Arm software. requirements.</p><p>We have built very good CPUs. I think it is very difficult to build a CPU that is different or better than ours and still complies with Arm standards. Of course, this may also be my own bias.</p><p>There were many people who did this in the past, but now there are fewer, because firstly, it is difficult to do it, and secondly, it is difficult to find people who do it. It is very difficult to build this kind of talent team. Most companies will say when faced with this road: \"If I build a SoC (system-on-a-chip) and I only have so many valuable engineers, then differentiated Arm CPU It may not be a very worthwhile place to put the energy into.\" Besides, they have other places that need to be invested in, such as camera, modem or IO support.</p><p><b>Nilay: When Apple or a licensee of another architecture delivers a product, do you have a team to verify that it's running the Arm instruction set and that they're not breaking the rules? Or do you just use the honor system so you don't mess with (Apple CEO) Tim Cook too much?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We have a set of requirements for this as well as a compliance suite that facilitates our testing to fundamentally verify that what they build is Arm compliant. We will test it to see if Arm instructions and code can be run, if the compiler is corrupt, or if the correct instructions cannot be recognized. So the short answer is, we do offer a set of compliance tests for all build designs based on architectural license.</p><p><b>Nilay: Aside from the Intel and AMD CPUs that people might come across because it's kind of opaque, I think the closed loop is where you really verify that this is the Arm stuff that works the way Arm works, and I think most people don't understand that, so I want to ask this set of questions and get a feel for the business.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>These are all very important issues. One of the things that has made us almost ubiquitous throughout history is that whether it's based on Arm CPU core licensing, or based on Arm instruction set architecture licensing, they need to run software for Arm instruction set architecture, and it doesn't break.</p><p>Arm has some failed CPUs that allow scaling, aka allowing customers to add custom instructions, and while that sounds innovative and cool, what really has to do with CPU architecture is letting developers know it will run.</p><p>If a developer is writing a piece of code for an OEM and has Arm embedded, the developer doesn't want to know, doesn't need to know, or even can't know that they're designing a thermostat with a Bob chip built in, and that Bob has some additional instructions. You need to take advantage of this because they may not know if other OEM devices have Arm chips that contain these instructions.</p><p>It is important to level the playing field and ensure that software datasets look the same. Our founders have done a fantastic job of sticking to that and making it feature quick. You can see that is really benefiting us right now.</p><p><b><i>02.</i></b></p><p><b>Stay neutral and don't try to pick winners</b></p><p><b>Nilay: Many of your customers have unavoidably fierce competitive relationships in multiple fields. I've talked to a lot of executives like you. In my opinion, they do much more interpersonal negotiation than engineering and research jobs. Is it true for you too? Do you consider yourself a business politician who ensures fairness to balance competition, or do you still focus more on processor design and development?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We must be deeply involved in all kinds of interpersonal negotiations, which is what we are going to do, but we also spend a lot of time and energy developing these CPU and software ecosystems to solve the problems of partners and really ensure that the product is in a leading position.</p><p>One difference is that we deal with everyone and have to be consistent in how we approach partnerships, which is really around access to technology, access to errors, and access to people.</p><p>The world depends on Arm, and as you said, we are a bit opaque. Saying on a podcast that the world depends on Arm, someone will want to say, \"I depend on you? I don't even know you!\" But we're really managing our relationship with our partners very seriously.</p><p><b>Nilay: Let me give you another simple example. I really find this example very enlightening. A few years ago, we talked to people running HDMI (High Definition Multimedia Interface), and they set up the PlayStation (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNE\">Sony</a>A home game console released in Japan in 1994) is the industry standard for plugging into a TV. Of course, that's why HDMI doesn't work perfectly when your remote control can control everything on your TV. Frankly speaking, they have raised their hands and surrendered: \"This problem is too difficult to solve. No one wants to solve it. Everyone is messing up.\" From a political perspective, I can see why that's their answer, because it's the lowest bet, right? I just want to plug my DVD player into the TV and let the remote control control the work, but the political nature inside is insurmountable. Besides, it is not an industry standard organization, so it needs to take great risks. Arm is a company that needs to report its earnings to shareholders. If it wants to go public, it must increase its earnings for its shareholders. How will you deal with the friction and tension between them?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We're really trying to be as neutral as possible. We are called the \"Switzerland of the electronics industry\" (known for its neutrality), which is a good comparison. We don't try to pick winners, we dabble in various sub-ecosystems within the ecosystem. If you start at the bottom of the semiconductor chain, all the chipmakers like Global Foundries, Samsung, TSMC, Intel, you realize that you have to work with all of them.</p><p>We have to ensure that our technology can be built on every semiconductor process in the world, and that requires investment from all these partners. And then, all the way up, when you think about Android, Linux, Windows, and all the major operating systems that we support, we have to make sure that we're among them.</p><p>We really try not to give ourselves an edge in the competition between one side and another. I'm not sure how we'll end up getting there, but that goal means we're standing on the shoulders of a pretty large ecosystem.</p><p>It's an ecosystem with design tools, manufacturing processes, software operating systems, and middleware. We often cooperate with relevant industry chain manufacturers and create them. We don't really work much with standards bodies, but we do work a lot with all the vendors I just mentioned.</p><p>We make sure to understand all the things they're trying to do from a roadmap perspective to make sure we're as compliant as possible. In the final analysis, we license the technology to the people who build the chips, and the people who build the chips want to have the widest opportunity in the range of chips that can be made.</p><p><b><i>03.</i></b></p><p><b>With a team size of nearly 6,000 people, how does Rene Haas make decisions?</b></p><p><b>Nilay: I want to learn about other basics of Arm, how many employees does Arm have?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>The last number I saw was probably around 5,800, but with contractors added, it could be over 6,000.</p><p><b>Nilay: How are they structured? Is it all chip design, or is there a lawyer? Is the ratio of patent attorneys to chip designers 1: 1? How does this work?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>Certainly not lawyers and engineers 1: 1, that's all I can say.</p><p><b>Nilay: Some companies are 1: 1 lawyers and engineers.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We're far from that. Our staff are mainly engineers, most of whom are based in the UK. We have several different engineering sites in different parts of the UK, France and Northern Europe; There are also several design centers in Arizona and Texas; There are also quite a few design engineers in Bangalore and Noida, India.</p><p>In contrast, our legal department is very small. If shown in thumbnail scale, the ratio of engineers to lawyers is quite large. We've done a really good job in how the licensing model works and in protecting intellectual property. While there isn't a huge legal department, there do be a lot of engineers because these products are really hard to make.</p><p><b>Nilay: Who reports to you? How is your team structured?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I am the CEO, and we also have the chief financial officer, the chief personnel officer and the person in charge of legal reporting. The whole is organized around business departments, forming a vertical business structure. We have automotive, Internet of Things (IoT), infrastructure, and client businesses, as well as chief architects, sales executives, and engineering executives, who also report to me. As I listed, there are a lot of direct reports. Arm is primarily people-oriented and operates around engineering, people, legal, and finance in the business.</p><p><b>Nilay: This question is a classic question that I often ask others. You have been at Arm for 9 years and have been CEO for 6 months. How did you make your decision? What is your framework?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I have to lie a little about having dinner with Tony Fadell, whom I know you interviewed a while back, and I appreciate his habit of contrasting opinion-based decision-making with data-based decision-making. What I'm trying to say is that the greater your beard and hair, the more open you are to opinion-based decisions. Human history repeats itself because we are humans and humans repeat the same successes and mistakes.</p><p>And I am a mixture of opinion and data, and the more experienced I am, the more I rely on intuition. Experience helps. For those fans: Why Tom<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRC\">Brady</a>Still playing quarterback at 45, even though physically, he plays with people half his age? Because it was hard to lie to him, he saw everything. And business is far more complicated than professional football.</p><p>So, the short answer to your question is data and opinion, both of which I rely on, but right now probably opinion helps me more than data because my intuition is more visual.</p><p><b>Nilay: My understanding of Tom Brady is that he doesn't eat any tomatoes and eats avocado ice cream every day, are those on your menu too?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>He's a bit like Benjamin Barton, and every time I look at him, he gets younger and younger. I also have strange eating habits. The British will know that I eat yogurt and granola for lunch every day. My assistant will almost preemptively say, \"I put your yogurt in the fridge. It has your name on it.\"</p><p>Not that I would put myself in the super successful category, but I do see this from other leaders, and these things reduce the number of decisions you have to make, and I have always found it helpful to me personally.</p><p>I wear the same clothes. I eat the same food. It's something I love and don't worry about it.</p><p><b>Nilay: Now let's talk about a big decision. As we all know, Arm was involved in this storm of SoftBank Vision Fund. SoftBank raised billions of dollars for the Vision Fund. The direct acquisition of Arm is a big deal for SoftBank. They have invested in many companies and the Vision Fund is a bit volatile. Trying to sell it to Nvidia when it is stable. The industry basically lobbied against the deal as much as it could, saying, \"We don't want Nvidia to have this core CPU technology, don't do it.\" The government also came forward and said it would block the deal, and SoftBank eventually gave up.</b></p><p><b>And then you come in as the new CEO and say to take the company public, which is a big flip. Your predecessor was firmly opposed to listing Arm because of what we talked about before: the pressure to increase revenue, against the risks of a neutral and fair supplier model, after all, you can increase revenue through special deals. These pressures will come, but it will all be your decision. How did you make this decision?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We announced this shift at the end of last year when the Nvidia deal largely fell apart. After I took over in mid-February and wrapped up our financial year in March, we were finally able to talk about financial results, something we haven't done in a while.</p><p>During the Nvidia period, we were very low-key, and when we announced our revenue for the year, we set a record of over $2 billion-$2.6 billion, and we've never done more than $2 billion in the past. Our operating margin is close to 40%, but almost everyone outside believes that we are losing money because we are very low-key. If you fast forward to this quarter, it's even higher than where we ended last year: more than 50% and $700 million in revenue, of which $450 million was royalties.</p><p>My several phone calls with analysts and journalists were like, \"Where did this come from? What funny math are you doing? Is this some form of equation?\" But actually, we know we're doing a good job.</p><p>Soon after SoftBank acquired Arm, we restructured and created two business units, and I took over Classic Arm and started pivoting to other markets. This pivot is not only a business model, but also a product. We know there are some changes happening in the data center, TSMC is doing a really good job with processing, and we're making good progress with software workloads. We think we can gain something in the hyperscale market if we push our investments into some specific directives, such as SME and SVE, which are vector scaling of specific workloads on hyperscale computers.</p><p><b>Nilay: To make it clear to everyone, that's the cloud computing market, that's your Google Cloud, AWS stuff.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>That's your cloud. AWS is a valued partner for us. They announced Graviton2 along with some pretty jaw-dropping numbers, with a 40% price performance improvement relative to other architectures. So we diversify our business by addressing this not only by developing different products, but also through different parts of the business model strategy.</p><p>We know our business is going to be fine. All the financial results that you're seeing right now are fantastic, the team is doing a fantastic job with this, and these really are all from work that was done a few years ago, and you don't see royalty results per unit overnight.</p><p>We develop IP, and then the IP has to be handed over to the customer, and they have to make a chip, and that chip has to go into a product, and the product has to be qualified. All of this can take 3 to 4 years, and we feel good about where we are going, and we feel good about areas that we have been investing in, such as cloud, automotive and IoT. These are all large long-term growth areas that I think we're a great fit in.</p><p><b>Nilay: You made some bets two years ago that have now paid off handsomely, do you think investor pressure between quarters will change the way you run your company?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I think any time you're a public company, that's just part of the way the world works. I can't talk too much about what life is going to be like as a public company though, I'm subject to very strict orders to stay in my area and can't talk too much.</p><p><b>Nilay: One of the few lawyers in the firm is running into the room.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>Haha, so I can't really say much about it. But I can say we are very confident in the long-term growth of the markets involved.</p><p><b><i>04.</i></b></p><p><b>For Arm, cars will be a big market</b></p><p><b>Nilay: You just expressed confidence in automotive, IoT, and cloud. The cloud market exists and is growing, and Arm has done something about it. I've talked to a lot of CEOs in the automotive industry, and we spent a lot of time on The Verge cast talking about smart homes and the Internet of Things. But those markets haven't really turned around, and as Arm CEO, can you push that? Or is it more like \"we just need to prepare the design and product for the car to truly become a network computer on wheels\"?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>When people think of electronic devices in cars, they automatically turn to autonomous driving, etc. Think about what's inside the car, and the number of processes in the car. The dashboard is all digital and computerized, the drivetrain, and whatever has to do with the mirrors and brakes, all of which are rapidly moving to and operating on the Arm. A lot of what's happening in smart cars is moving towards Arm.</p><p>In the powertrain, you have many old standalone electronic control units (ECUs), they may have an old proprietary microcontroller and are not identical to the rest of the car. All of these ECUs are being redesigned, inside each car, there may be 50-70 ECUs, and each one may have an old proprietary microcontroller, they don't have connections, don't have a memory management unit. Therefore, with the addition of automatic and advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), cars can become highly connected devices, which is an area Arm wants to develop.</p><p>To us, cars are a bit of a sandbox of multiple technologies: dash, drivetrain, drivetrain/ECU. By the way, autonomy is a huge opportunity for us.</p><p>Getting back to the data center space, in terms of computing, what really matters in a car is performance and efficiency, you can't have a server in your trunk running an electric car, and some cars today are like that. That will improve over time, and we are very optimistic about the automotive market, where we will grow very fast as well.</p><p><b>Nilay: So, are you going to ask some of your engineers to say, go find ECUs, engine controllers or body control modules that can work across cars, so that someone at Nvidia can come and get the license and sell it to Ford?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>This is actually already happening. These CPU efficiency, power, and functional safety for cars are all important. You must have all the safeguards in place to ensure that it can operate safely. Some people do this in software through compute libraries, but most people prefer to do this in hardware, where it is safer and more efficient to perform.</p><p>We have developed automotive processors and graphics processors with embedded functional safety. Before we didn't do that, before we would basically just roll out a generic thing to use anywhere you want. It's one of the things that we've made significant changes in the last few years.</p><p><b>Nilay: We're talking about the future now. Let's bring the topic back to the present. We have been in a state of chip shortage for a long time, and this \"core shortage\" may not end. Both Intel and Nvidia had less than satisfactory quarterly results, and Intel said they would actually raise prices. Where would you be in a chip shortage? Is that something that's affecting you right now? Is that something you see coming and going? You're kind of out of touch with this actual part.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We're out of the idea of not making anything, but we do have to do with chips again, and our royalty model has to do with components that people order.</p><p>Going back to the earlier discussion, we are very diverse in terms of end markets. Another thing that's happening is that more and more CPUs are being used in these SoCs. The application processor of the mobile phone may use one CPU, while the cluster used for computing is now 9 or 10 different CPUs. You have 10 CPUs, which is just the application processor (AP), and then consider touch sensors, monitors and cameras. We're seeing that although sales in certain markets such as smartphones have been heading towards weakness, we've been protected by it from a product direction perspective.</p><p><b>Nilay: Did you hear our episode with Willy Shih? Here he is, telling us about the toilet paper, and then talking about the manufacture of chips and LCD monitors. Because they had too many SKUs and sold too many types of paper, they decided to reduce the types of toilet paper. In the end, this decision solved a large part of the problem.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>right. So now think about a car that needs all sorts of diodes, capacitors, resistors, and thermal sensors, not just because it's hard to get 3nm, but it's hard to build a fabs.</p><p>You can tell by my hair color that I've been in this industry for a long time. I've been in a business cycle. People start to stop R&D and slow down projects. They gradually stop trying new things and stop innovating.</p><p>I think it's because everything is going digital, the super high demand for electronics and how it's going to change our lives. What are our metrics? Licensing and new design beginnings have never been better for us because it is across all markets.</p><p><b><i>05.</i></b></p><p><b>\"In 50 years, every continent should have world-class fabs\"</b></p><p><b>Nilay: What you're saying is one of the reasons why R&D is picking up pace. The world is beginning to re-recognize the prospect of globalization, and the world is no longer so peaceful. The U.S. just passed the Chip Act to really incentivize chip manufacturing and various design investments. TSMC is building in the U.S., and Intel just broke ground on a new factory in Ohio. Do you see considering that everyone knows that we rely heavily on a few fabs in Taiwan, which is a geopolitical hotspot. We need to transfer this critical technological dependence to our own countries. Is this something you would be involved in, or are you just watching?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We will definitely be involved in this. As long as we can expand the need for this by talking to political officials in any country, we will help. It's not just an Arm issue, it's an industry issue. A single point of failure in anything you're doing is not a good thing, the pandemic has exposed a lot and people are starting to keep their eyes open to what things are the real problem. I am so grateful to the people who are pushing the chip bill, and that's really very important.</p><p>Not only is this important for the United States, every continent should have its own world-class wafer fab in the next 50 years from now. We don't have to worry about geopolitics, the fabs will be like the oxygen for the world to revolve after.</p><p><b>Nilay: Now the cutting-edge process nodes are mainly controlled by TSMC, which is far ahead with 5nm and 3nm technologies. Few people can compete at this level. Your smartphones use the most cutting-edge technologies, while those used in cars are basically mature process nodes (40nm, 14nm). The processes are severely limited, and no one is investing in building these fabs anymore. What do you think of this outcome? What do you think of this strict restriction on TSMC, which has cutting-edge technology? Everyone wants to improve building capabilities on these things, but no one wants to improve building capabilities for old things.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I'm not a manufacturing expert, but what I can tell you is that we're seeing a lot getting done about how to convert certain fabs into new jobs.</p><p>Just like you said it was. People are usually a little reluctant to put a lot of money into this, and you might think that you can convert the fab that we are building into some kind of process technology and turn it into a logic fab? Is there a storage fab that can be converted to a logic fab? But this is a very complicated problem because there are only so many factories in the world, and there are only so many people who know how to build these things, and they are all public companies and have to go and make money, in short, it's a very complicated matrix.</p><p>Thirty years ago, Japan's logic fabs were world-class and spread across the country. Now that number has basically dropped to zero. Japan is looking for ways to change that to bring more fabs back online. I think you're going to see a lot of things in the U.S. in other countries that have done the chip bill and that sort of thing. I think South Korea's fabs have huge capabilities, but it is also a complicated and difficult problem.</p><p><b><i>06.</i></b></p><p><b>\"Intel CEO did a lot of the right things\"</b></p><p><b>Nilay: How dependent is Arm on TSMC? It feels like a lot of companies are realizing that they really depend on one company. It's an industry leader for a reason, but there's a lot of dependency there. Have you considered this dependency when designing new processor types or architectures?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We work closely with TSMC. All fabs are important to us, and Arm will remain neutral.</p><p>Seriously, they all matter. In an ideal world, we have a lot of people who can build cutting-edge technology. Generally speaking, in smart phones and data centers, it is usually the most cutting-edge technology, because everyone is really trying to maximize performance as much as possible, which is not the case in automotive and industrial fields. Therefore, any fab that adopts cutting-edge processes is very important to us.</p><p><b>Nilay: As we all know, Intel has long been an integrated design and fab enterprise. They were basically blown away by TSMC, and now, they have a new CEO who is breaking that with plans to open up their factories to others. You just said that Intel is a customer, are you working with them?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We wanted TSMC to make a lot of Arm products, and they did. We expect Intel to do the same.</p><p><b>Nilay: Are you optimistic that Intel can do that?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I think (Intel CEO) Pat has done a lot of things right. His work is hard and extremely well done, and we are more than willing to do more with him.</p><p><b>Nilay: Another political answer, but I have to ask. In terms of the chip bill, people are very excited about the passage and signing of the bill. Intel has received a lot of criticism for announcing cuts in capital expenditures and increased Dividend rather than putting it into fabs. Broadly speaking, do you think this is the right move? What timing should we look for for fabs in the US?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I wouldn't doubt Pat's decisions about how he spends his money. Getting back to what you said, we're talking about a single point of failure. I feel like we need to move quickly, get these facilities up and running as quickly as possible, get them online, build more redundancy, and reduce the risk of single points of failure. So we need more fabs.</p><p><b>Nilay: What kind of timing do you make your decisions based on? If a bill is passed today, or someone announces a new fab today, and we won't see it for five years, how do you see the timing of your decision?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>After six months as CEO, I am still learning, and I have a lot of responsibilities. One of the biggest responsibilities is to think about the problems five years from now.</p><p>Because of the way our business operates, the process from designing the product to seeing the revenue is quite long. We are thinking about where the opportunities are, where investments need to be made, where the threats are, and the direction of system and software design.</p><p>Most of my energy is spent thinking about what the world will look like in 2025 and 2026, not next quarter.</p><p><b><i>07.</i></b></p><p><b>Stay tuned to PC, Arm is making a lot of progress</b></p><p><b>Nilay: There are some long-term bets that are more focused on consumers than replacing servers in the trunk of a car. At present, the hottest trend related to Arm is that Apple has shifted from Intel x86 processors to self-developed M-series processors licensed based on the Arm instruction set architecture to support their Macs, which not only improves battery life and performance, but also helps Apple reduce procurement costs. Now, thanks to these chips, Mac is basically the best laptop you can buy. This reflects that Arm architecture processors can also achieve great success in the PC market. Can Arm help other industries do these things? Or just design, and hope that Qualcomm can make something that allows Microsoft and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell</a>A chip that can do this too? From your perspective, how do you see the relationship with the industry?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I think we can do more, and probably need to do more. It's not because we need to help the industry, but because these products are really complicated to build.</p><p>Let's talk about architectural licensing first. Previously, many manufacturers believed that you needed to obtain architectural licenses to build a better CPU to compete with Arm. However, the IPC instructions per clock of the microprocessor are only one aspect that can really change the design. Memory subsystems, interconnects, The size of the cache, how it interfaces with the rest of the SoC, and ensuring that the SoC is in a multi-chip package with chip and chip interconnects.</p><p>Some clients are very good at these things and can figure it out, so they don't need too much help from us. But as time goes on, more and more businesses will need Arm to do more, and that's a trend we're watching very closely.</p><p><b>Nilay: From your point of view, as long as it's all Arm chips, it doesn't matter who wins, does it? If Apple takes 100% of the laptop market, that's great for you. If Microsoft,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">Hewlett Packard</a>And Qualcomm to be able to pair competitive Windows on Arm laptops and take a 50% share, you can still get paid. Does it feel like whoever wins, you will win?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>If the product ships with the Arm instruction set architecture, that's a good thing for us, if an alternative device is used, it means it doesn't use the Arm instruction set architecture, which is not so good for us.</p><p>When I first took office, I took a small moniker for my own name on the website and worked with the PR team to use the slogan \"Arm will show up wherever computing happens\". It doesn't matter a thermostat or microwave oven, Polycom, or a smart TV, laptop, etc., these are all based on Arm.</p><p><b>Nilay: You just said where the computing happens, for most people, the computing happens on their laptops and desktops. I've been hearing about Windows on Arm (WoA) for 13 years and it didn't happen, but are you just content to let Apple eat the industry? Because there are still other people's instruction sets in this extremely huge industry, such as Intel's instruction set.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I used to work for a company that developed Windows RT as the general manager of that product line. Before joining Arm, I worked at Nvidia for many years (7 years as VP and General Manager of the Computing Products Business Unit at Nvidia), and we made great progress on this because we felt the real tipping point was there.</p><p>The turning point did exist, and during my first news interview on my Windows RT laptop, I remember meeting with a group of reporters and the first question they asked me was: \"Does it run iTunes?\" We're like, \"Ah, shit. No.\" It doesn't run because we don't have ports and Apple isn't helping us.</p><p>Fast forward to 10 years later, streaming audio has arrived, and no one really cares about these apps. If you consider all the apps that run on a PC or phone, it's hard to say \"OK, what native apps aren't really running on Arm?\" They were almost all there.</p><p>Stay tuned for the PC thing. We are making a lot of progress. You can see what the features are through laptops in other ecosystems. I think it's a wake-up call for the industry in terms of the potential of these features, and we're going to stick with it.</p><p><b>Nilay: That wake-up call was due to a very wealthy company spending a lot of money on your instruction set customization, right? That's their leverage. Are you saying that we as Arm can develop products that are as efficient per watt as M-series chips and then sell those designs to Qualcomm? Or does it come down to Qualcomm-which I believe also has architectural licenses-doing it itself?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I'm 100% confident of that. You don't need a schema license to do this.</p><p><b><i>08.</i></b></p><p><b>How to win in GPU?</b></p><p><b>Nilay: On the other hand there are laptops, desktops, and even automakers. I went to sit in a (American BEV) Rivian, and I was told that GPUs and Unreal Engines drive cars. Graphics performance has become the point of differentiation for various products in the industry, and Arm has a well-named new GPU, Immortalis. Apple is not using your GPU. If you think about the big GPU vendors, they don't really think about performance per watt, do they? With high-end Nvidia cards, you just need to have a nuclear reactor in the basement to run that thing, which is great. It looks good. How will you win in GPU?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>When you count it by units, we're actually the # 1 supplier of GPUs on the planet. I remember that during the Nvidia acquisition, its CEO Jensen Huang put forward a key point: We will be faithful to our review, and performance per watt matters. We're not going to risk doing a hundred watt TDP GPU and try to make a difference in that space. We're going to try in the 1 watt range, optimizing in that range. Then there are certain areas where you can start doing more in terms of multiple GPUs.</p><p>We're starting to see people thinking about doing machine learning extensions and possibly doing these things inside the GPU. This is interesting because GPUs can benefit from some level of AI and machine learning to do shader drawing in a more efficient way. In the meantime, you can start working or move ML workloads onto the GPU. There's a lot of interesting innovations that will be able to happen on our GPUs, and we're investing heavily in that space. To be clear, we will remain in an area where performance and efficiency matter.</p><p><b>Nilay: Yeah, you deliver a lot of GPUs. It is part of the SoC package for many customers. Performance per watt leads for customers with their own GPU or their own GPU extensions. Is it the same deal that doesn't matter at the end of the day because they are shipping the Arm instruction set architecture and you still get paid? Or is it \"we have to stay competitive here or they will leave altogether\"?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>The GPU is slightly different from the CPU because the API is decimative. Performance per watt does matter. We do a lot to level the competition, and with Immortalis, are leading the way in many areas. Another thing that is very critical for these GPUs is the efficiency of the interface between the CPU and the GPU, which is also an area where we invest heavily, but we have to be vigilant in the GPU market, which is, as you said, very competitive. You let people do it themselves, you let other third parties do the product. At the same time, this is an area that we are very focused on, so we will invest. I think machine learning AI vectors for future use with GPUs are a huge opportunity for us.</p><p><b>Nilay: GPUs are a huge investment. You have to spend a lot of money to compete and win the design. Are you making this investment because you can win back these products and get more from other custom GPUs over time? Or just to be competitive, do you need competitive GPUs?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I go back to machine learning and artificial intelligence. If you have a heterogeneous computing system, and you have a CPU, GPU, and NPU, I think at some point in time the compiler will get smart enough that they may point to parts of the code that can run better on the GPU versus the CPU.</p><p>If you look at the whole cluster as a complete subsystem, I think there are long-term benefits from that. For us, especially when designing a system-on-chip, we're trying to make all sorts of major trade-offs. Sometimes I don't want that workload to run on the CPU because it consumes unnecessary power and I probably have transistors in the GPU that I might be able to use if I wasn't drawing. We think GPUs are a very critical strategic component.</p><p><b><i>09.</i></b></p><p><b>Only Arm and RISC-V options</b></p><p><b>Nilay: GPU competitors, in one aspect, are obvious. CPU competitors seem more difficult to identify, who are your competitors?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>In terms of CPU? I think there are probably only two options, which is biased, but I don't even think there's a real choice.</p><p>From an instruction set architecture perspective, if you want to build an SoC based on x86, there are only two companies in the world that will do it for you: AMD or Intel. Then there's RISC-V, which is a completely different part because it's open source and many different versions exist.</p><p>RISC-V is a scalable processor, which means that its strengths are its weaknesses. In my opinion, scalability leads to fragmentation. I think it hurts them in terms of getting any kind of software ecosystem. It's really hard to look around and say, \"What are the major software ecosystems that run consistently on RISC-V processors?\" No.</p><p>So, where do we see RISC-V in the system-on-chip today? It is located in the deep embedded part of the chip, unaware of its existence by external programmers.</p><p>Here's an analogy I can give. If you put something in the microwave and press the start button on the 30-second timer, that display may be Arm, because there may be a small piece of open-source application code running on it. The timer that actually turns the oven on and turns it off after 30 seconds might be RISC-V.</p><p>These are really the only two options available. I mean, all of these are small companies, but those companies really don't have a lot of appeal in terms of market share.</p><p><b>Nilay: Do you see Arm and RISC-V retiring out the outdated x86 world?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>x86 has been around for a long time and has a very strong installed base, and I certainly don't want to do anything to belittle what they are doing. I think the challenge with x86 is that it only comes from two companies, which in itself is a limiting factor in terms of how far it can go.</p><p><b>Nilay: These two companies, Intel and AMD, both have their own fabs, as does TSMC. There's another manufacturing conundrum, and over time, these manufacturers seem to say, \"Look, we're really good at Arm. We're going to be good at RISC-V, we don't want to be good at x86 anymore.\"</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I'd even wonder if they're really pretty good at Arm already. Needless to say, this is not easy.</p><p><b>Nilay: Are there any other competitors like RISC-V? I mean, RISC-V is another thing like Windows on Arm. I've heard about it for a decade and it seems to be in some of the apps you're talking about.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>It's all about software. At the end of the day, it's about having a rich ecosystem of developers who can take advantage of writing software. For us, we think there are 15 to 25 million developers programming on Arm. Some people know they are programming on Arm because they take advantage of the instruction set, but there are others who don't because it's abstracted out. The compiler and open source libraries are there, which makes it easy to run.</p><p>For example: Smart TVs. If you try to write new menus for smart TVs and try to link to the version of Android that is essentially the underlying kernel, it's Arm. It's all optimized for Arm. In terms of self-reporting, this is a big plus. These libraries all exist and have been optimized. Let's say you tried it on RISC-V. If Company A adds 17 new instructions to make their RISC-V look a little different, then developers won't know this. How will developers take advantage of this? RISC-V may eventually be reduced to the lowest common denominator.</p><p><b>Nilay: A few months ago, Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon participated in this show. I asked him the same Windows on Arm question, and he kind of blamed the software developers, saying, \"Look, Microsoft,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>And other big independent software vendors have to join, they have to make these things quickly. \" You just said it's all about software, did you spend time with those companies saying, \"Look, you have to shift your focus to the future, this is Arm?\"</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>By these companies do you mean Microsoft or Adobe?</p><p><b>Nilay: Both.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>Yeah, yeah. We spend a lot of time on both, and that's where the battle is ultimately to win. You've been looking at it like me for 10, 12 years, and it's closer than ever because not only is there more work being done on the original apps, but more of these native apps have been written for Arm.</p><p>Take a look at the two different operating systems in the world. Other operating systems use their names in their code. View all Microsoft applications running only on their system. They are all ported in this way, and as a result, all these Microsoft apps can run on your phone. We're pretty much the same, and I think the turning point will come when there's a lot of pretty good CPU products on the market that can compete with others. As far as your point is concerned, the product proves that you don't have to sacrifice performance and game-changing battery life in form factor.</p><p><b><i>10.</i></b></p><p><b>Epilogue: What's next for Arm?</b></p><p><b>Nilay: I always ask people what's next for their company, but I'll ask you a more specific question. You announced that Arm will go public in March 2023. As the time approaches, can you deliver on this goal?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>Unfortunately, we are at a stage right now where I can't give too much away.</p><p><b>Nilay: Okay, what's next for Arm?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We will continue to invest in the areas I mentioned. We think some of the topics that we just talked about do have strong growth: those complex packaging systems and complex designs. We're trying to find capabilities to offer more to the industry because I think there's a huge opportunity there.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/g70BOooqglRyEZ4H5QBwwA\">芯东西</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131603997b7396ff2c6f104ae3d43a0f","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/g70BOooqglRyEZ4H5QBwwA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106272938","content_text":"Arm为何改变主意要上市？是否被缺芯潮殃及？如何看待《美国芯片法案》？有一家特殊的芯片公司，不曾设计一颗芯片，却处在庞大的科技世界的中心，存在于手机、电脑、电视、汽车甚至是驱动一切的数据中心里，为苹果、高通、三星等芯片巨头提供核心的底层技术支撑。它就是Arm，一家先是被苹果合资创办、后被日本软银集团收购、又差点卖身给美国GPU芯片巨头英伟达的英国芯片设计公司。Arm将指令集架构（ISA）授权给有芯片设计需求的公司，从它们手中收取使用费。通过这种方式，Arm的影响力辐射全球，以智能手机为代表的绝大多数移动设备，都离不开Arm的技术。本周二，美国科技媒体The Verge的首席主编Nilay Patel和Arm新任CEO Rene Haas完成了一场对谈，Nilay从最基本的问题循序渐进，聊到Arm是如何赚钱的、是否受到缺芯潮的影响、如何看待与x86和RISC-V指令集架构的竞争、IPO上市进展等颇受产业关注的话题。▲Arm CEO Rene Haas今年2月，在英伟达宣布放弃收购Arm的同一天，Arm董事会宣布任命Rene Haas为新任CEO。虽说Rene Haas担任Arm CEO的时间仅有半年之久，但他实际已经在Arm工作了近9年。在他看来，Arm是电子行业的瑞士，将尽可能保持中立，不试图挑选赢家。他也分享了对《美国芯片法案》的看法，认为这不仅对美国很重要，而且50年后，每个大陆都应该有世界级的芯片工厂。“我们不应该担心地缘政治对世界运作方式的担忧，因为它就像世界运转的氧气一样。”以下是芯东西对访谈实录的完整编译：01.“几乎所有你能想到的人，都是我们的客户。”Nilay：现在Arm面临着很多变化，你也有计划未来带领Arm上市，且最近也收到了上一季度的收益报告。Arm是一家非常有意思的企业，所以，我想我们可以从最开始谈起。Arm是整个科技生态系统中的一块关键拼图，它几乎影响着所有人，但它的形象又是不透明的，消费者并没有和Arm产生什么直接关系，而是由很多其他公司在中间做一个载体的身份，所以，让我们从头开始，Arm到底是做什么的？Rene Haas：就像你说的这样，Arm确实不一个众所周知的企业，外界也不是了解我们，但我们自认为我们还是非常重要的。首先，我们处在半导体世界的半导体价值链中。你几乎可以在所有半导体产品或者OEM产品中看见Arm的技术，我们在手机、笔记本电脑、智能电视中。光是看一下我的办公桌上，几乎就有几十个含有Arm处理器的东西。Arm并不直接构建产品，也不生产芯片，而是构建芯片里面的设计，我们把我们的设计许可给想要构建最终产品的人。我们最著名的产品就是CPU，它几乎是所有类型的电子设备的大脑。由于Arm不制造芯片，直接将大脑授权给有意愿的人，所以到处都是Arm的大脑。从上个季度的数据来看，在全球所有半导体公司和OEM之间，Arm制造交付了74亿颗内置了Arm CPU、GPU或者其他技术的芯片，这是一个非常庞大的数字，所以我们处在半导体价值链中，但我们不会构建任何产品，我们只负责设计，尤其是对微处理器的设计处理。Nilay：你们的客户是谁呢？Rene Haas：这个问题非常有意思。在电子行业，说谁不是我们的客户似乎更容易，因为你能想象到的几乎任何人，都是我们的客户。我们的客户有三星、台积电、格罗方德等实际生产制造芯片的企业，还有英特尔、AMD、英伟达、高通、亚马逊、微软、谷歌，当你去世界其他地方时，我们还有阿里巴巴、腾讯和字节跳动。几乎所有人都是我们的客户。Nilay：那您是如何从这些客户那里赚钱的呢？他们只是购买设计的授权许可吗？还是购买芯片样片？他们是否需要支付专利许可费呢？这些到底都是怎么运作的？Rene Haas：我们的商业模式分为两部分。第一部分是前期许可费，合作客户支付给我们这笔款项后，才能获得技术的使用权，从而有权在我们的技术上进行进一步的设计。第二部分是，如果这些设计最终投入生产并形成了最终产品，我们就会根据与合同相关的一些数学算法按单位收取使用费。因此，可以说我们有两部分收入来源，一是授权许可收入，另一个是使用费收入。Nilay：如果我在高通买了一块骁龙芯片，需要给你们付钱吗？或者是高通必须给你们付钱？又或者是别人得付？Rene Haas：你不需要支付，但高通需要。在你说的这个案例里，高通需要告知我们你购买的芯片数量，我们和高通会有一个预先商量好的特许使用费率，高通会按照商量好的费率来我们支付款项。Nilay：三星在为他们自己的智能手机设计生产自己的芯片，它里面的部门之间还必须相互签署条件。如果我购买了带有三星Exynos芯片的三星手机，而不是高通芯片，这笔钱会如何回流给您？Rene Haas：这就是Arm商业模式的绝妙之处。高通使用我们的技术，三星也是。当Galaxy手机发货时，我们很可能就会收到三星的付款了，如果这款产品是和高通合作的，那我们就会获得高通这边的付款。总之，我们都会获得付款。这具体取决于我们与合作伙伴之间的授权许可情况，通常情况下，都会与这些公司的半导体部门合作，以三星为例，如果我们与芯片部门签订合同，那么芯片部门将需要向Arm支付款项。Nilay：到了难度阶梯最顶部的最后一个疑问。苹果公司提供了一种非常独特的许可证，称为架构许可证。他们完全设计自己的芯片，我不觉得他们使用了很多你们的设计，但这是Arm的知识产权。所以当我购买MacBook Air（M2）时，您如何获得报酬？Rene Haas：在商业逻辑上都是类似的，我们和苹果这样的公司签订合同，这些公司像其他人一样向我们支付版权税。Nilay：任何人都可以获得像苹果那样的授权许可吗？使用你们的IP，但完全设计自己的东西？Rene Haas：架构许可基本上赋予了公司制造我们所谓的Arm兼容处理器的权利。任何这样做的人，都可以对微架构进行细微的修改，实际上就是如何物理地把放置在芯片上。但这些公司不能做的是修改CPU，这会使芯片无法运行Arm的指令。而这一点至关重要，因为归根结底，我们必须保持软件兼容性，无论是我们自己构建的东西，还是拥有授权许可的合作方构建的东西，只要在运行Arm处理器，就都必须符合运行Arm软件的要求。我们打造了非常好的CPU，我觉得要构建一个和我们不同或更好，同时仍然符合Arm标准的CPU是非常困难的，当然，这也有可能是我自己的偏见。过去这么做的人有很多，但现在变少了，因为一是很难做，二是很难找到做这件事的人。要建立这种人才团队的难度非常大，大多数公司面对这条路都会说：“如果我构建一个SoC（系统级芯片），而我只有这么多宝贵的工程师，那么差异化的Arm CPU可能并不是一个非常值得投入精力的地方。” 况且他们还有其他需要投入的地方，比如摄像头、调制解调器或IO的支持。Nilay：当苹果或其他架构的被授权方交付产品时，您是否有团队去验证它正在运行Arm指令集并且他们没有违反规则？或者您只是使用荣誉系统，这样就不会太惹到（苹果CEO）蒂姆·库克了？Rene Haas：我们有一套这方面的要求以及一个合规性套件，方便我们进行测试，以从根本上验证他们构建的内容是否符合Arm标准。我们会针对它进行测试，检测是否可以运行Arm指令和代码，编译器是否损坏，或者是否无法识别正确的指令。所以简短的回答是，我们确实会为所有基于架构许可的构建设计提供一套合规性测试。Nilay：除了人们可能遇到的英特尔和AMD CPU，因为它有点不透明，我认为闭环是你真正验证这是以Arm的方式运作的Arm东西的地方，我想大多数人都不理解这一点，所以我想问这组问题并感受一下业务。Rene Haas：这些都是非常重要的问题。让我们在历史上几乎无处不在的一件事是，无论是基于Arm CPU内核授权，还是基于Arm指令集架构授权，他们都需要运行针对Arm指令集架构的软件，并且不会中断。Arm有一些失败的CPU，它们允许扩展，也就是允许客户添加自定义指令，虽然这听起来很创新而且很酷，但真正与CPU架构相关的是让开发人员知道它会的运行。如果开发人员正在为OEM编写一段代码并且嵌入了Arm，则开发人员不想知道、不需要知道，甚至无法知道他们正在设计一个内置Bob芯片的恒温器，并且Bob有一些额外的说明。你需要利用这一点，因为他们可能不知道其他OEM设备是否具有包含这些指令的Arm芯片。公平竞争并确保软件数据集看起来相同非常重要。我们的创始人在坚持这一点并使其具有快速的特点上做得非常出色。你可以看到这一点现在确实在让我们受益。02.保持中立，不试图挑选赢家Nilay：你的很多客户在多个领域都有着毫不避讳的激烈竞争关系。我和很多像你这样的高管谈过。在我看来，相比工程和研究类的工作，他们做的人际交涉工作要多得多。你是否也是如此？你认为自己是一个确保公平以平衡竞争关系的商业政治家，还是你仍然把较多心思放在处理器的设计和研发方面？Rene Haas：我们肯定深陷在人际交涉的各种事情里，这本来就是我们要去做的事，但我们也花费了大量的时间和精力来开发这些CPU和软件生态系统，以解决合作伙伴的问题，真正确保产品处于领先地位。有一点不同的是，我们与每个人打交道，都必须保持我们在处理合作伙伴关系的方式上的一致性，这实际上是围绕对技术的访问、对错误的访问以及对人员的访问。世界依赖于Arm，正如你所说的那样，我们有点不透明，在播客上说世界依赖于Arm，有人听会想说：“我依赖你们？我都不认识你们！” 但我们真的在非常认真地管理与合作伙伴的关系。Nilay：让我再举一个简单的例子，我真觉得这个例子很有启发性。几年前，我们与运行HDMI（高清多媒体接口）的人交谈过，是他们树立了将PlayStation（索尼于1994年在日本发售的家用游戏机）插进电视的行业标准。当然，这也是当你的遥控器就可以控制电视上的所有东西时，HDMI成了无法完美运行的原因所在。坦白说，他们已经举起双手投降了：“这个问题太难解决了，没有人愿意搞定这件事，大家都在摆烂了。” 从政治角度来看，我明白为什么这是他们的答案，因为这是最低的赌注，对吧？我只是想把我的DVD播放器插入电视，然后让遥控器去控制工作，但里面的政治性质是无法逾越的，况且它也不是行业标准机构，需要冒很大的风险大。Arm是一家需要向股东报告收益的企业，想要上市，那就必须为自己的股东增加收益。这之间的摩擦、紧张您会如何处理？Rene Haas：我们真的是尽量保持中立。我们被称为“电子工业界的瑞士”（以中立态度著称），这是一个不错的比照。我们不会试图挑选赢家，我们会涉足生态系统中的各个子生态系统。如果你从半导体链的最底层开始，格芯（Global Foundries）、三星、台积电、英特尔等所有芯片制造商，你会意识到你必须和他们所有人合作。我们必须确保我们的技术能够建立在世界上每一种半导体工艺上，这需要所有这些合作伙伴的投资。然后，一路向上，当你想到Android、Linux、Windows以及我们支持的所有主要操作系统时，我们必须确保我们也在其中。我们真的尽量不让自己在一方和另一方的竞争中占据优势。我不确定我们最终会如何达到这一点，但这个目标就意味着我们站在一个相当大的生态系统的肩膀上。这是一个生态系统，里面有设计工具、制造过程、软件操作系统和中间件。我们经常与相关产业链厂商合作，并创建它们。我们并没有真正与标准机构进行太多合作，但我们确实与我刚刚提到的所有厂商进行了大量合作。我们确保从路线图的角度了解他们正在尝试做的所有事情，以确保我们尽可能地合规。归根结底，我们将技术许可给构建芯片的人，构建芯片的人想要在可以制造芯片的范围里拥有最广泛的机会。03.团队规模近6000人，Rene Haas如何做决策？Nilay：我想了解一下Arm的其他基础知识，Arm有多少员工？Rene Haas：我看到的最后一个人数可能是5800人左右，但加上承包商的话，可能在6000人以上。Nilay：它们的结构如何？都是芯片设计，还是有律师？专利代理人和芯片设计师的比例是1：1吗？这是如何运作的？Rene Haas：当然不是律师和工程师1:1，我就只能说这么多了。Nilay：有些公司是1:1的律师和工程师。Rene Haas：我们离那种程度还很远。我们的员工主要是工程师，其中大多数在英国。我们在英国、法国和北欧的不同地区有几个不同的工程站点；在美国的亚利桑那州和德克萨斯州还有几处设计中心；在印度的班加罗尔和诺伊达也有不少设计工程师。相比之下，我们的法律部门非常小。如果用缩略图比例来显示，工程师和律师的比例是相当大的。我们在许可模式运作的方式上以及保护知识产权方面做得非常好。虽然没有庞大的法律部门，但确实有很多工程师，因为这些产品真的很难制造。Nilay：谁向你汇报？你的团队是如何构成的？Rene Haas：我是CEO，我们还有首席财务官、首席人事官和法律报告负责人，整体是围绕业务部门组织起来的，形成了一个垂直的业务结构。我们拥有汽车、物联网（IoT）、基础设施和客户端业务，还有首席架构师、销售主管和工程主管，这些人也向我汇报。正如我列出的这样，有很多直接下属。Arm主要以人为本，围绕业务中的工程、人、法律和财务运作。Nilay：这个问题是我经常问别人的经典问题。你在Arm工作了9年，担任CEO已经6个月。您是如何做决定的？您的框架是什么？Rene Haas：我不得不稍微撒个小谎，说我和托尼·法德尔共进晚餐，我知道你不久前采访过他，我很欣赏他习惯将基于意见的决策与基于数据的决策进行对比。我想说的是，你的胡须和头发越白，你就越能接受基于意见的决定。人类的历史会重演，因为我们是人类，人类会重复同样的成功和错误。而我是意见和数据的混合体，经验越丰富，我就越依赖直觉。经验有帮助。对于那些球迷来说：为什么汤姆·布雷迪仍然在45岁时打四分卫，尽管在身体上，他和年龄只有他一半的人一起踢球？因为要骗他很难，他什么都看出来了。而商业远比职业足球复杂。所以，对你的问题的简短回答是数据和意见，两者我都依赖，但现在可能意见比数据更能帮助我，因为我的直觉更直观。Nilay：我对汤姆·布雷迪的理解是，他不吃任何西红柿，每天都吃鳄梨冰淇淋，这些也在你的菜单上吗？Rene Haas：他有点像本杰明·巴顿，每次看他，他都越来越年轻。我也有奇怪的饮食习惯。英国人会知道，我每天午餐都会吃酸奶和格兰诺拉麦片。我的助理几乎会先发制人地说：“我把你的酸奶放在冰箱里了。上面有你的名字。”并不是说我会把自己归为超级成功的那一类，但我确实从其他领导者那里也看到了这一点，这些东西减少了你必须做出的决定的数量，且我一直发现它对我个人是有帮助的。我穿同样的衣服。我吃同样的食物。这是我喜欢的东西，而且不用担心。Nilay：现在让我们谈谈一个重大决定。众所周知，Arm卷入了软银愿景基金的这场风暴，软银为愿景基金筹集了数十亿美元，直接收购Arm对软银来说是笔大买卖，他们投资了很多公司，还在愿景基金有点不稳定时试图将其卖给英伟达。业界基本上尽其所能地游说反对这笔交易，并表示：“我们不希望英伟达拥有这种核心的CPU技术，不要这样做。” 政府也出面表示将阻止这笔交易，最终软银放弃了。然后你以新任CEO的身份到来，说要让公司上市，这是一个很大的翻转。你的前任曾坚决反对让Arm上市，原因是我们之前谈到的：必须增加收入的压力，对抗中立公平的供应商模式会面临的风险，毕竟你可以通过特殊交易来增加收入。这些压力会到来，但这都将是你的决定，你是怎么做出这个决定的？Rene Haas：在去年年底，英伟达交易基本分崩离析时，我们宣布了这种转变。在我于2月中旬接手并于3月结束我们的财政年度之后，我们终于能够谈论财务业绩，这件事有一段时间没做过了。在英伟达时期，我们非常低调，当我们宣布今年的收入时，我们创下了超过20亿美元的记录——26亿美元，过去我们从未做过超过20亿美元的事。我们的营业利润率接近40%，但外界几乎都认为我们正在亏损，因为我们非常低调。如果你快进到本季度，它甚至比我们去年结束时的水平还要高：超过50%和7亿美元的收入，其中4.5亿美元是特许权使用费。我与分析师和记者们的几次电话都像是，“这是从哪里来的？你在做什么有趣的数学？这是某种形式的方程式吗？” 但实际上，我们知道我们做得很好。软银收购Arm后不久，我们重组并创建了两个业务部门，我接管了经典的Arm，开始转向其他市场。这个支点不仅是一种商业模式，也是一种产品。我们知道数据中心正在发生一些变化，台积电在处理方面做得非常好，我们在软件工作负载方面也取得了良好的进展。我们认为，如果我们将投资推进到一些特定的指令上，例如SME和SVE，这些是超大规模计算机上特定工作负载的矢量扩展，我们可以在超大规模计算机市场方面有所收获。Nilay：让每个人都清楚，这就是云计算市场，那是你的谷歌云，AWS的东西。Rene Haas：那是你的云。AWS是我们的重要合作伙伴。他们宣布了Graviton2以及一些相当令人瞠目结舌的数字，相对于其他架构的价格性能提高了40%。因此，我们不仅通过开发不同的产品，而且通过商业模式战略的不同部分来解决这个问题，从而使我们的业务多样化。我们知道我们的生意会好起来的。你现在看到的所有财务结果都非常棒，团队在这方面做得非常出色，这些真的都是来自几年前的工作，你不会在一夜之间看到每单位的版税成果。我们开发IP，然后IP必须交给客户，他们必须制造出一个芯片，该芯片必须进入一个产品，产品必须是合格的。所有这些可能需要3到4年的时间，我们对我们要到达的地方感觉很不错，在我们一直投资的领域，例如云、汽车和物联网，我们也觉得不错。这些都是我认为我们非常适合的大型长期增长领域。Nilay：两年前你做了一些赌注，现在得到了丰厚的回报，你认为季度间的投资者压力会改变你运营公司的方式吗？Rene Haas：我认为任何时候你都是一家上市公司，这只是世界运作方式的一部分。不过，我不能过多谈论作为上市公司的生活会是什么样子，我受到非常严格的命令限制，要留在我的区域内，不能谈论太多。Nilay：公司里为数不多的一位律师正要跑进房间。Rene Haas：哈哈，所以我真的不能说太多。但我可以说，我们对所涉市场的长期增长非常有信心。04.对Arm来说，汽车将会是一个大市场Nilay：你刚刚表达了对汽车、物联网和云的信心。云市场存在且还在增长中，Arm已经对此采取了措施。我与很多汽车行业的CEO交谈过，我们在The Verge cast上花了很多时间谈论智能家居和物联网。但那些市场还没有真正的转弯，作为Arm CEO，你可以推动这一点吗？还是更像是“我们只要为汽车真正的成为车轮上的网络计算机，而准备好设计和产品”？Rene Haas：当人们想到汽车中的电子设备时，他们会自动转向自动驾驶等。想想汽车内部有什么，以及汽车中的流程数量。仪表板全是数字化的、电脑化的，动力传动系统，以及与后视镜和刹车有关的任何东西，所有这些都在迅速转移到Arm上，在Arm上运作。智能汽车中发生的许多事情正在向Arm移动。在动力传动系中，你有许多旧的独立的电子控制单元（ECU），他们可能有一个旧的专有微控制器，并且不与汽车的其他部分相同。所有这些ECU都在重新设计，每辆汽车内部，可能有 50-70个ECU，而且每一个都可能有一个旧的专有微控制器，它们没有连接，没有内存管理单元。因此，添加自动和高级驾驶辅助系统（ADAS）后，汽车可以成为高度联网的设备，这是Arm要发展的一个领域。对我们来说，汽车有点像多种技术的沙盒：仪表板、动力传动系统、动力传动系统/ECU。顺便说一句，自治对我们来说是一个巨大的机会。回到数据中心领域，就计算而言，汽车中真正重要的是性能和效率，你不能在你的后备箱里有一台服务器运行电动汽车，今天的一些汽车就是这样的。随着时间的推移，这种情况会得到改善，我们对汽车市场非常乐观，在那里我们也会发展得非常快。Nilay：那么，你是否要请你的一些工程师说，去找可以跨汽车工作的ECU、发动机控制器或车身控制模块，以便英伟达的人可以来获得许可并将其出售给福特？Rene Haas：这其实已经在发生了。这些用于汽车的CPU效率、功率和功能安全都很重要。你必须拥有所有保障措施以确保它可以安全运行。有些人通过计算库在软件中执行此操作，但大多数人更愿意在硬件中执行此操作，因为硬件中执行更安全有效。我们开发了嵌入功能安全的汽车处理器和图形处理器。之前我们没有这样做，之前我们基本上只会推出一个通用的东西，以便在你想要的任何地方使用。这是我们在过去几年中做出重大改变的事情之一。Nilay：我们现在在谈论未来了，让我们把话题拉回到当下。我们长期以来一直处于芯片短缺状态，这次的“缺芯”也可能不会结束。英特尔和英伟达的季度业绩都不太理想，英特尔说他们实际上会提高价格。在芯片短缺的情况下，你会在哪里？那是现在影响你的事情吗？那是你看到来来去去的东西吗？你有点脱离了这个实际的部分。Rene Haas：我们脱离了不制造任何东西的观点，但我们确实又和芯片有关，我们的版税模型与人们订购的组件有关。回到前面的讨论，我们在终端市场方面非常多样化。正在发生的另一件事是这些SoC中使用了越来越多的CPU。移动手机的应用处理器可能使用一个CPU，而用于计算的集群现在是9个或10个不同的CPU。你有10个CPU，这只是应用处理器（AP），然后考虑触摸传感器、显示器还有摄像头这些东西。我们看到，尽管智能手机等某些市场的销量一直在走向疲软，但从产品走向的角度来看，我们一直受到它的保护。Nilay：你听过我们与Willy Shih的那一集吗？他就在这里，告诉我们卫生纸的事情，然后谈到了芯片和液晶显示器的制造。由于他们有太多的SKU，卖的纸种类太多，所以决定减少卫生纸的种类，最后这一决策解决了很大一部分问题。Rene Haas：没错。所以现在想想一辆需要各种二极管、电容器、电阻器和热传感器的汽车，不仅仅是因为很难获得3纳米，而且很难建造晶圆厂。你可以从我的头发颜色看出我在这个行业已经很长时间了，我一直处于商业周期中，人们开始停止研发并放慢项目速度，他们渐渐不尝试新事物，停止了创新。我认为这是因为一切都数字化了，对电子产品的超高需求以及它将如何改变我们的生活。我们的指标是什么？许可和新设计开始对我们来说从未如此美好，因为它遍及所有的市场。05.“50年后，每个大陆都应该有世界级的晶圆厂”Nilay：你所说的是研发正在加快步伐的原因之一。全球范围内都开始重新认识全球化的前景，世界不再那么平静。美国刚刚通过了芯片法案，以真正激励芯片制造和各种设计投资。台积电正在美国建设，英特尔刚刚在俄亥俄州的新工厂破土动工。你是否看到考虑到，大家都知道我们严重依赖中国台湾的少数晶圆厂，而中国台湾是一个地缘政治热点地区。我们需要将这种关键的技术依赖转移到自己的国家。这是你会参与的事情吗，还是你只是在旁观？Rene Haas：我们肯定会参与这件事。只要我们可以通过与任何国家的政治官员交谈来扩大对此的需求，我们就会提供帮助。这不仅仅是Arm问题，而是一个行业问题。你正在做的任何事情的单点故障都不是一件好事，疫情暴露了很多东西，人们开始睁大双眼，看到哪些事情才是真正的问题。我非常感谢推动芯片法案的人们，这一点真的非常重要。这不仅对美国很重要，从现在起往后50年，每个大陆都应该有自己的世界级晶圆厂。我们不必担心地缘政治问题，晶圆厂之后会像世界运转的氧气一样。Nilay：现在前沿工艺节点主要由台积电控制，用5nm、3nm的技术遥遥领先，很少有人能在这个水平上竞争。你的智能手机用的都是最前沿的技术，而用于汽车上的基本都是较成熟的工艺节点（40nm、14nm），工艺受到严重限制，不再有人投资建造这些晶圆厂。你怎么看待这种结果？你对处于拥有前沿技术的台积电存在这种严格限制怎么看，每个人都想在这些东西上提高建设能力，但没有人想为旧东西提高建设能力。Rene Haas：我不是制造专家，但我可以告诉你的是，我们看到很多关于如何将某些晶圆厂转换为新工作的事正在完成。就像你说的那样。人们通常会有点不愿意将大量资金投入到这里面，你或许会想可以将我们正在建造的晶圆厂转换为某种工艺技术，并将其转变为逻辑晶圆厂？有存储晶圆厂可以转换成逻辑晶圆厂吗？但这是一个非常复杂的问题，因为世界上只有这么多工厂，知道如何建造这些东西的人只有这么多，他们都是上市公司，必须去赚钱，总之这是一个非常复杂的矩阵。30年前，日本的逻辑晶圆厂是世界级的，遍布全国。现在这个数字已经基本下降到为零。日本正在寻找方法改变这种局面，以使更多的晶圆厂重新上线。我想你会看到很多在美国在其他国家有完成芯片法案之类的事情。我认为韩国的晶圆厂有巨大的能力，不过，它也是一个复杂而困难的问题。06.“英特尔CEO做了很多正确的事”Nilay：Arm对台积电的依赖程度如何？感觉就像很多公司都意识到他们真的依赖于一家公司。它是行业领导者是有原因的，但那里有很多依赖。在设计新的处理器类型或架构时，你是否考虑过这种依赖性？Rene Haas：我们与台积电密切合作。所有晶圆厂对我们都很重要，Arm会保持中立态度。说真的，它们都很重要。在一个理想的世界里，我们有很多人可以构建前沿技术。一般来说，在智能手机里，数据中心里，通常是最前沿的工艺，因为大家真的在努力尽可能地发挥出最大的性能，在汽车和工业领域则不然。所以，任何采用前沿工艺的晶圆厂对我们来说都非常重要。Nilay：众所周知，英特尔长期以来一直是一家集成设计和晶圆厂企业。他们基本上被台积电所震撼，现在，他们又有了一位新的CEO，他正在打破这种局面，计划向其他人开放他们的工厂。你刚才说英特尔是客户，你正在和他们合作吗？Rene Haas：我们希望台积电能够制造大量Arm产品，他们确实这样做了。我们希望英特尔也这样做。Nilay：你对英特尔能够做到这一点持乐观态度吗？Rene Haas：我认为（英特尔CEO）帕特做了很多正确的事情。他的工作很辛苦，完成得也非常好，我们非常愿意和他一起做更多的事情。Nilay：又是一个偏政治的答案，但我必须问。在芯片法案方面，人们对法案的通过、签署都很兴奋。英特尔受到了很多批评，因为它宣布削减资本支出并增加股息，而不是将其投入晶圆厂。从广义上讲，你认为这是正确的举措吗？我们应该为美国的晶圆厂寻找什么样的时机？Rene Haas：我不会怀疑帕特关于他如何花钱的决定。回到你说的，我们谈论的是单点故障。我觉得我们需要快速行动，尽快启动这些设施，让它们上线，构建更多冗余，减少单点故障的风险。所以我们需要更多的晶圆厂。Nilay：你根据什么样的时机做出决定？如果今天通过一项法案，或者今天有人宣布了一个新的晶圆厂，我们五年内都看不到它，那你如何看待你的决策时机？Rene Haas：在担任CEO六个月后，我仍在学习，身上有很多责任，最大的责任之一就是要思考五年后的问题。因为我们的商业运作方式，从设计的产品到能看到收入的过程是相当长的。我们正在考虑机会在哪里，需要在哪里进行投资，威胁又在哪里，以及系统和软件设计的方向。我的大部分精力都花在思考2025年和2026年的世界会是什么样子上，而不是下个季度。07.请继续关注PC，Arm正取得很大进展Nilay：有一些长期押注更关注消费者，而不是更换汽车后备箱中的服务器。目前与Arm有关的最热门趋势是，苹果公司从英特尔x86处理器转向基于Arm指令集架构授权的自研M系列处理器，来支持它们的Mac，提升了电池寿命和性能的同时，也帮助苹果降低了采购成本。现在，由于这些芯片，Mac也基本成了你能买到的最好的笔记本电脑了。这反映了Arm架构处理器在PC市场也能够获得巨大成功，Arm可以帮助其他行业做这些事情吗？或者是仅设计，并希望高通能够做出让微软和戴尔也能做到这一点的芯片？从你的角度来看，你如何看待与行业的关系？Rene Haas：我认为我们可以做更多的事情，而且可能需要做更多的事情。这不是因为我们需要帮助这个行业，而是因为这些产品的构建真的很复杂。让我们先谈谈架构许可。之前，很多厂商认为你需要获得架构许可才能构建更好的CPU来与Arm竞争，但是，微处理器每个时钟的IPC指令只是真正可以改变设计的一方面，还需要考虑内存子系统、互连、高速缓存的大小、与SoC其他部分的接口方式，并确保SoC位于具有芯片和芯片互连的多芯片封装中。有些客户非常擅长这些东西，并且可以弄清楚，所以他们不需要我们的过多帮助。但随着时间的推移，越来越多的企业将需要Arm做更多，这是我们非常密切关注的一个趋势。Nilay：从你的角度来看，只要都是Arm筹码，谁赢并不重要是吗？如果苹果公司占据笔记本电脑市场100%的份额，那对你来说非常好。如果微软、惠普和高通能够在Arm笔记本电脑上搭配具有竞争力的Windows，并占据50%的份额，你仍然可以获得报酬。是不是感觉无论谁赢，你都会赢？Rene Haas：如果产品与Arm指令集架构一起发货，那对我们来说是一件好事，如果使用了替代设备，则意味着它没有使用Arm指令集架构，对我们来说就不太好。我刚上任时，在网站上用自己的名字取了一个小绰号，并与公关团队合作，用了一句slogan“无论在哪里发生计算，Arm都会出现”。不管恒温器或微波炉、Polycom，还是智能电视、笔记本电脑等等，这些都是基于Arm的。Nilay：你刚才说计算发生在哪里，对于大多数人来说，计算发生在他们的笔记本电脑和台式机上。我听说Windows on Arm（WoA）已有13年了，虽然没有发生，但你只满足于让苹果吃掉这个行业吗？因为在这个极其庞大的行业中仍有其他人的指令集，比如英特尔的指令集。Rene Haas：我曾在一家开发Windows RT的公司工作，担任那个产品线的总经理。在加入Arm之前，我在英伟达工作多年（在英伟达担任副总裁兼计算产品业务部门总经理长达7年），我们在这方面取得了巨大进展，因为我们觉得真正的引爆点就在那里。转折点确实存在，我在Windows RT笔记本电脑上进行的第一次新闻采访时，我记得与一群记者会面，他们问我的第一个问题是：“它运行iTunes吗？” 我们就像：“啊，该死。不。” 它不能运行，因为我们没有端口，苹果公司也没有帮助我们。快进到10年后，流媒体音频已经出现，没有人真正关心这些应用程序。如果你考虑在PC或手机上运行的所有应用程序，就很难说“好吧，哪些原生应用程序不是真正在Arm上运行的？” 他们几乎都在那里。请继续关注PC的事情。我们正在取得很大进展。你可以通过其他生态系统的笔记本电脑看到功能是什么。我认为就这些功能的潜力而言，这对行业敲响了警钟，我们也会坚持下去。Nilay：那个警钟是由于一家非常富有的公司在你的指令集自定义上花费了大量资金，对吗？那是他们的筹码。你是说我们作为Arm可以开发出每瓦性能与M系列芯片一样高效的产品，然后将这些设计卖给高通吗？还是归结为高通——我相信它也拥有架构许可——自己做？Rene Haas：我对此有100%的信心。你不需要架构许可证即可执行此操作。08.如何在GPU中获胜？Nilay：另一方面是笔记本电脑、台式机，甚至汽车制造商。我去坐在一辆（美国纯电动汽车）Rivian上，我被告知GPU和虚幻引擎驱动汽车。图形性能已成为该行业各种产品的差异化的点，Arm有一个名字很好的新GPU，Immortalis。苹果公司没有使用你的GPU。如果你考虑大型GPU供应商，他们并没有真正考虑每瓦性能，是吗？使用高端的英伟达卡，你只需要在地下室有一个核反应堆来运行那个东西，这很棒。看起来不错。你将如何在GPU中获胜？Rene Haas：当你按单位计算时，我们实际上是地球上GPU的第一大供应商。我记得，英伟达收购事件期间，其CEO黄仁勋提出了一个关键点：我们将忠实于我们的审查，每瓦特的性能很重要。我们不会冒险去做百瓦TDP GPU并尝试在那个领域发挥作用。我们将在1瓦范围内尝试，在该范围内进行优化。然后在某些领域，你可以开始在多个GPU方面做更多的事情。我们开始看到人们正在考虑做机器学习扩展，并可能在GPU内做这些事情。这很有趣，因为GPU可以从某种程度的AI和机器学习中受益，从而以更有效的方式进行着色器绘制。同时，你可以开始工作或将ML工作负载转移到GPU上。有很多有趣的创新将能够在我们的GPU上进行，我们正在该领域进行大量投资。需要明确的是，我们将留在一个性能和效率很重要的领域。Nilay：是的，你交付了很多GPU。它是许多客户的SoC包的一部分。拥有自己的GPU或自己的GPU扩展的客户的每瓦性能领先。是否同样的交易在一天结束时并不重要，因为他们正在运送Arm指令集架构并且你仍然可以获得报酬？或者是“我们必须在这里保持竞争力，否则他们将完全离开”？Rene Haas：GPU与CPU略有不同，因为API是抽取式的。每瓦性能确实很重要。我们为公平竞争做了很多工作，而且有了Immortalis，在许多领域都处于领先地位。对这些GPU来说非常关键的另一件事是CPU和GPU之间的接口效率，这也是我们大力投资的领域，但我们必须在GPU市场上保持警惕，正如你所说，这是非常有竞争力的。你让人们自己做，你让其他第三方做产品。同时，这是我们非常关注的一个领域，所以我们会投资。我认为未来与GPU一起使用的机器学习AI向量对我们来说是一个巨大的机会。Nilay：GPU是一项巨大的投资。你必须花很多钱来竞争并赢得设计。你进行这种投资是因为随着时间的推移，你可以从其他定制GPU中赢回这些产品并获得更多收益吗？还是仅仅为了具有竞争力，你需要有竞争力的GPU？Rene Haas：我回到机器学习和人工智能。如果你有一个异构计算系统，你有一个CPU、GPU和NPU，我认为在某个时间点编译器会变得足够聪明，它们可能会指向可以运行得更好的部分代码在GPU与CPU上。如果你将整个集群视为一个完整的子系统，我认为这会带来长期利益。对我们来说，尤其是在设计片上系统时，我们正在尝试进行各种重大权衡。有时我不希望该工作负载在CPU上运行，因为它会消耗不必要的功率，而且我可能在GPU中有晶体管，如果我不画画的话，我可能可以使用它们。 我们认为GPU是一个非常关键的战略组件。09.只有Arm和RISC-V两种选择Nilay：GPU竞争对手，在某一方面是显而易见的。CPU的竞争对手似乎更难识别，你的竞争对手是谁？Rene Haas：在CPU方面？我想大概只有两个选择，这是有偏见的，但我甚至认为没有真正的选择。从指令集架构的角度来看，如果你想基于x86构建SoC，世界上只有两家公司会为你做这件事：AMD或英特尔。然后是RISC-V，它是一个完全不同的部分，因为它是开源的并且存在许多不同的版本。RISC-V是一个可扩展的处理器，这意味着它的优势就是它的劣势。在我看来，可扩展性会导致碎片化。我认为这在获得任何类型的软件生态系统方面伤害了他们。环顾四周真的很难说，“什么是在RISC-V处理器上始终如一地运行的主要软件生态系统？”没有。那么，我们今天在片上系统中的什么地方看到了RISC-V？它位于芯片的深层嵌入部分，外部程序员不知道它的存在。这是我可以给出的一个类比。如果你在微波炉里放一些东西，然后在30秒计时器上按下启动键，那显示器可能是Arm，因为上面可能运行了一小段开源应用程序代码。实际打开烤箱并在30秒后关闭的计时器可能是RISC-V。这些确实是仅有的两个选择。我的意思是，所有这些都是小公司，但这些公司在市场份额上确实没有太大的吸引力。Nilay：你是否看到Arm和RISC-V会淘汰过时的x86世界？Rene Haas：x86已经存在很长时间，并且拥有非常强大的安装基础，我当然不想做任何事情来贬低他们正在做的事情。我认为x86的挑战在于它仅来自两家公司，就其可以走多远而言，这本身就是一个限制因素。Nilay：这两家公司，英特尔和AMD都有自己的晶圆厂，台积电也有。还有另一个制造难题，随着时间的推移，这些制造商似乎会说，“看，我们真的很擅长Arm。我们将擅长RISC-V，我们不想再擅长x86了。”Rene Haas：我甚至会怀疑他们是否真的已经非常擅长Arm了。毋庸置疑，这并不容易。Nilay：有没有像RISC-V这样的其他竞争对手？我的意思是，RISC-V是另一个类似Windows on Arm的东西。我听说它已经有十年了，它似乎出现在你所说的一些应用程序中。Rene Haas：这都是关于软件的。归根结底，它是关于拥有一个能够利用编写软件的丰富的开发者生态系统。对我们来说，我们认为有1500万到2500万开发人员在Arm上编程。有些人知道他们在Arm上编程，因为他们利用了指令集，但也有一些人不知道，因为它被抽象掉了。编译器和开源库都在那里，这使得它很容易运行。举个例子：智能电视。如果你尝试为智能电视编写新菜单并尝试链接到本质上是底层内核的 Android版本，那就是Arm。这一切都针对Arm进行了优化。就自我报告而言，这是一个很大的优势。这些库都存在，并且已经完成了优化。假设你在RISC-V上尝试过。如果A公司添加17条新指令以使他们的 RISC-V看起来有点不同，那么开发人员不会知道这一点。开发人员将如何利用这一点？RISC-V可能最终被简化为最低公分母。Nilay：几个月前，高通CEO克里斯蒂亚诺·安蒙（Cristiano Amon）参加过这个节目。我问了他同样的Windows on Arm问题，他有点把责任归咎于软件开发者，说：“看，微软、Adobe和其他大型独立软件供应商必须加入，他们必须快速制作这些东西。” 你刚才说这都是关于软件的，你是否花时间与那些公司说：“看，你必须将注意力转移到未来，这就是Arm？”Rene Haas：你说的这些公司是指微软还是Adobe？Nilay：两个都是。Rene Haas：是的。我们花了很多时间在两者上，这就是最终要赢得战斗的地方。你和我一样已经看了10年、12年了，它比以往任何时候都更接近，因为不仅在原有应用程序上要做更多的工作，而且已经为Arm编写了更多这些本地应用程序。看看世界上两种不同的操作系统。其他操作系统在代码中使用他们的名字。查看仅在其系统上运行的所有微软应用程序。它们都以这种方式移植，因此，所有这些微软应用程序都可以在你的手机上运行。我们也差不多，我认为当市场上有很多相当不错的CPU产品可以与其他人竞争时，转折点就会出现。就你的观点而言，该产品证明了你不必在外形尺寸上牺牲性能和改变游戏规则的电池寿命。10.结语：Arm的下一步是什么？Nilay：我总是问人们他们公司的下一步是什么，但我会问你一个更具体的问题。你宣布Arm将于2023年3月上市，随着时间的临近，能否兑现这个目标呢？Rene Haas：不幸的是，我们现在正处于我不能透露太多的阶段。Nilay：好吧，Arm的下一步是什么？Rene Haas：我们将继续在我提到的领域进行投资。我们认为刚刚谈到的一些主题确实有强劲的增长：那些复杂的封装系统和复杂的设计。我们正在努力寻找为行业提供更多服务的能力，因为我认为那里有巨大的机会。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":952,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915941600,"gmtCreate":1664942740700,"gmtModify":1676537533620,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090574021972690","idStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915941600","repostId":"1170807854","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170807854","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1664932902,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170807854?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-05 09:21","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Hong Kong stocks open | The Hang Seng Index rose more than 4%, and technology and Internet stocks opened higher across the board","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170807854","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"香港恒生指数开盘上涨732.46点，涨幅4.29%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On October 5 (Wednesday), Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index opened up 732.46 points, or 4.29%, to 17811.97 points; The Hang Seng Technology Index opened up 170.22 points, or 4.97%, to 3597.35 points; The State Enterprise Index opened up 231.71 points, or 3.96%, to 6088.53 points; The red chip index opened up 93.17 points, or 2.77%, to 3458.95 points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0e8c72bd18d129ec0c87fdf066eeb15\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Technology and Internet stocks generally rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">Bilibili-SW</a>Up about 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">NetEase-S</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">Baidu Group-SW</a>Up more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">Jingdong Group-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba-SW</a>Rose more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>Up more than 4%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01211\">BYD shares</a>Up 9.37%, its new energy vehicle sales in September were 201,259 units, a year-on-year increase of 183.1%.</p><p>Changhe rose 5%, and the company is working with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VOD\">Vodafone</a>Discussions on a potential merger between Vodafone UK and Three UK, a mobile telecommunications asset in the UK.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HBC\">HSBC Holdings</a>Up more than 6%, news said<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00005\">HSBC Holdings</a>Is considering a multi-billion-pound sale of Canadian operations. At the same time, most Hong Kong bank stocks rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02888\">Standard Chartered Group</a>Rose more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02388\">BOCHK</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600036\">China Merchants Bank</a>Up more than 3%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09922\">Jiu Mao Jiu</a>Up 7%, terminate the acquisition<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02007\">Country Garden</a>26% equity of its Guangzhou International Financial City Project Company.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong stocks open | The Hang Seng Index rose more than 4%, and technology and Internet stocks opened higher across the board</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong stocks open | The Hang Seng Index rose more than 4%, and technology and Internet stocks opened higher across the board\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-10-05 09:21</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On October 5 (Wednesday), Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index opened up 732.46 points, or 4.29%, to 17811.97 points; The Hang Seng Technology Index opened up 170.22 points, or 4.97%, to 3597.35 points; The State Enterprise Index opened up 231.71 points, or 3.96%, to 6088.53 points; The red chip index opened up 93.17 points, or 2.77%, to 3458.95 points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0e8c72bd18d129ec0c87fdf066eeb15\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Technology and Internet stocks generally rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">Bilibili-SW</a>Up about 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">NetEase-S</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">Baidu Group-SW</a>Up more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">Jingdong Group-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba-SW</a>Rose more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>Up more than 4%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01211\">BYD shares</a>Up 9.37%, its new energy vehicle sales in September were 201,259 units, a year-on-year increase of 183.1%.</p><p>Changhe rose 5%, and the company is working with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VOD\">Vodafone</a>Discussions on a potential merger between Vodafone UK and Three UK, a mobile telecommunications asset in the UK.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HBC\">HSBC Holdings</a>Up more than 6%, news said<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00005\">HSBC Holdings</a>Is considering a multi-billion-pound sale of Canadian operations. At the same time, most Hong Kong bank stocks rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02888\">Standard Chartered Group</a>Rose more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02388\">BOCHK</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600036\">China Merchants Bank</a>Up more than 3%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09922\">Jiu Mao Jiu</a>Up 7%, terminate the acquisition<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02007\">Country Garden</a>26% equity of its Guangzhou International Financial City Project Company.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cf777090175126e4590c3b8afdfe41e","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170807854","content_text":"10月5日（周三），香港恒生指数开盘上涨732.46点，涨幅4.29%，报17811.97点；恒生科技指数开盘上涨170.22点，涨幅4.97%，报3597.35点；国企指数开盘上涨231.71点，涨幅3.96%，报6088.53点；红筹指数开盘上涨93.17点，涨幅2.77%，报3458.95点。科网股普涨，哔哩哔哩-SW涨约9%，网易-S、百度集团-SW涨超6%，京东集团-SW、阿里巴巴-SW涨超5%、腾讯控股涨超4%。比亚迪股份涨9.37%，其9月新能源汽车销量201,259辆，同比增加183.1%。长和涨5%，该公司正与沃达丰就沃达丰英国和英国流动电讯资产Three UK公司潜在合并事宜进行讨论。汇丰控股涨超6%，消息称汇丰控股正考虑以数十亿英镑的价格出售加拿大业务。同时，港股银行股多数走高，渣打集团涨超7%，中银香港、招商银行涨超3%。九毛九涨7%，终止收购碧桂园旗下广州国际金融城项目公司26%股权事项。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":852,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9931015380,"gmtCreate":1662358941541,"gmtModify":1676537045066,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090574021972690","idStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9931015380","repostId":"1168515999","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":995,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9931012797,"gmtCreate":1662358920920,"gmtModify":1676537045058,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090574021972690","idStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9931012797","repostId":"1138935850","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138935850","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662347645,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138935850?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-05 11:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Apple and Huawei's \"sky-breaking\" technology will bring up a 6 trillion market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138935850","media":"智东西","summary":"苹果搞了五年的卫星通信，华为要抢先发布了。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Text/Yun Peng</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>After five years of satellite communications, Huawei is going to be the first to release it.</p><p>The \"space\" theme of Apple's invitation letter to this fall's conference has led many industry insiders to speculate that Apple's iPhone 14 series will support the long-rumored \"satellite communication\" function.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18353155b97d427c2bed5a8360d19ec\" tg-width=\"425\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Just this week, well-known Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo announced his latest research on Apple's satellite communication function. He believes that it is inevitable that the iPhone will support satellite communication, but whether this function will be implemented in the iPhone 14 is still not completely certain.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9eeced6fb7cbadb39705a7f52487c03c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As early as last year, Ming-Chi Kuo predicted that the iPhone 13 series might support satellite communications, but in the end this prediction did not come true. Bloomberg reporter Mark Gurman (Mark Gurman) also previewed what functions Apple's satellite communication function will have.</p><p>Ming-Chi Kuo also mentioned that Huawei's Mate50 series mobile phones, which will be released on September 6, may provide the ability to send emergency text messages through satellite communications based on the Beidou system.</p><p>As soon as Ming-Chi Kuo finished speaking, Huawei's terminal business CEO,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Yu Chengdong, CEO of Automotive Solutions BU, said that Huawei Mate50 will release a \"piercing the sky\" technology. Subsequently, Huawei insiders confirmed to the media that Huawei Mate50 will indeed support satellite communication functions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df76ef27e053384f384af515c68ba8fe\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In other words, Huawei will most likely release satellite communication functions ahead of Apple.</p><p>Why do Apple and Huawei bet on satellite communications one after another? What can an iPhone that supports satellite communications do, and what adjustments does an iPhone need to make to support satellite communications? Will satellite communications subvert our cellular mobile network today in the future?</p><p>A new revolution in the field of mobile communication technology is brewing.</p><p><b>01．</b></p><p><b>Satellite communication can \"save lives\" or become a must for smartphones</b></p><p>Earlier Bloomberg reporter Gurman mentioned that it has not been a day or two since Apple wanted to implement satellite communication functions on the iPhone.</p><p>Why does Apple have a soft spot for satellite communications, and what is the use of this feature?</p><p>In a word, this feature will allow us to send messages and make phone calls in areas without cell phone coverage.</p><p>For example, in some emergency situations where mobile phones have no signal, we can quickly send messages to emergency contacts; In some crashes, the accident location is often very remote and there is no signal from mobile phones. At this time, we can use satellite communication to report the accident situation in time.</p><p>Of course, for people who are lost during travel or exploration in remote areas, this function can also play a \"life-saving\" role in some remote mountainous areas, lakes and other places without 4G or 5G signal coverage.</p><p>Ming-Chi Kuo believes that the increasingly frequent natural disasters and geopolitical conflicts in recent years may make emergency communication capabilities based on satellite communications an essential function of smartphones.</p><p>Speaking of which, you may have some \"bold ideas\". If iPhone can communicate without signal, does that mean that we can get rid of the limitation of cellular mobile network and no longer need to apply for mobile network packages?</p><p>According to the information disclosed by informed sources, the initial application scope of Apple's satellite communication function is still relatively limited, mainly focusing on the handling of some crisis situations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5323ee5a63164caf27dded04b65201d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to people familiar with the matter, Apple is now developing at least two specific \"emergency features\", and these emergency features will rely on satellite networks, and Apple will apply these features in future iPhones.</p><p>The first function will be called \"Emergency Message via Satellite\", which allows users to send emergency messages through satellite networks when their mobile phones have no signal.</p><p>This feature will be integrated into iOS's messaging App and appear in the form of \"gray bubbles\" instead of the green or blue bubbles of ordinary messages.</p><p>The second function will be major accident reporting, such as plane crashes and ship sinks. This function also needs satellite network support.</p><p>Apple's satellite communication tool for reporting major accidents is internally codenamed \"Stewie\". This tool will limit the length of messages sent, and these messages will be automatically sent to the emergency contact's mobile phone, even if the emergency contact has set \"Do Not Disturb\", the mobile phone will receive the message and prompt it.</p><p>In this feature, the phone will ask the user what kind of crisis situation they have encountered, whether it involves a car, ship, plane or fire. In addition, users can further report more specific information, such as whether there are casualties, whether search and rescue services are needed, whether there is suspicious behavior or gun threats.</p><p>When the user uses the emergency service, the mobile phone will send the user's location information and medical ID. The medical ID is a virtual card in the Apple Health App, which records the user's age, medical history, medication status, height and weight and other information.</p><p>Apple has designed a sending method internally. As long as users enter the phrase \"Emergency SOS\", the mobile phone will automatically send the information to the emergency contact.</p><p>Apple has also tested a method of connecting to satellites internally, which requires users to walk outdoors in a certain direction to help the iPhone get satellite signal, and this connection is not instant, sometimes it may take a minute or so to complete.</p><p>In addition to sending text messages, the satellite communication tool may also have the ability to handle satellite phone calls later.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f88036aaa8407c20f00a536977da71fa\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, in the final analysis, whether these functions can be realized depends in part on the availability of satellites and whether local regulations allow it. Obviously, this feature is not applicable to all countries and regions.</p><p><b>02．</b></p><p><b>Hardware testing is in place, customized baseband chips, Apple has to \"launch satellites\"?</b></p><p>These functions have been brewing for a long time. In fact, Apple has been committed to the research of satellite-related technologies for many years. Bloomberg said that the Apple team's exploration in this field can be traced back to 2017.</p><p>On August 29, 2021, Ming-Chi Kuo predicted that the iPhone 13 series will support satellite communication capabilities. He mentioned that the iPhone 13 series<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>The X60 5G baseband will support low-earth orbit satellite communications.</p><p>Ming-Chi Kuo's main basis for making these judgments is Apple's 5G baseband supplier Qualcomm and the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSAT\">Global Star</a>(Globalstar) companies have cooperation in this field.</p><p>Regarding the specific business model, he believes that if the user's operator (such as T-Mobile and Verizon) has cooperated with Globalstar, then the user can directly use Globalstar's satellite communication services through the operator's services.</p><p>In Ming-Chi Kuo's latest analysis, he mentioned that Apple has now completed the hardware test of the satellite communication function. Whether Apple will specifically apply this function depends on whether Apple and operators can negotiate a business model.</p><p>He believes that Apple completed the hardware development of satellite communication functions as early as the iPhone 13 period, but the business model had not yet been determined at that time.</p><p>Once the Apple iPhone has satellite communication capabilities, it will be the first mainstream smartphone to support this feature. Ming-Chi Kuo also mentioned that if other mobile phone manufacturers also want to use satellite communication functions, they will probably be one year later than Apple.</p><p>Satellite phones are nothing new. At present, consumer satellite phones can be easily purchased. Satellite phones generally require a large independent antenna, and in some cases, some other auxiliary equipment is needed to capture and relay satellite signals.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6fc40c46b0f4e5cfefdf8a0b5d261ff\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>▲ Common satellite phones and accessories on the market</p><p>What \"customizations\" will Apple make to the baseband chip to achieve this function? How will Apple design the antenna that implements this communication function? There are still no clear answers to these questions, which are of great concern to the industry. But what is certain is that in order to connect to satellites, Apple does need a \"customized\" communication chip that is different from the existing 5G baseband.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56224f71d750b0bf58685141398b7b44\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Ming-Chi Kuo also mentioned that Apple's trial of satellite communication technology on the iPhone is just the beginning. In the future, Apple's MR headsets and even Apple's electric vehicles will improve their experience through the addition of satellite communication technology.</p><p>Not long ago, Gurman revealed that the \"Pro\" version of Apple Watch that Apple will launch will also support satellite communication functions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b111b89cfb4e51c1b8cff2a5509ae1a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg reported that in the further future, Apple is even considering eventually deploying its own satellites, but the realization of recent functions will rely on existing satellite networks.</p><p>Considering Apple's habit of keeping key technologies in its own hands, we wouldn't be too surprised if they really developed their own communication satellites and launched them into space to form their own satellite communication network.</p><p><b>03．</b></p><p><b>Who is the \"global star\" who exclusively enjoys Apple's big orders?</b></p><p>Although Apple's ideals are full, returning to reality, can we really see satellite communications landing on the iPhone 14 this year?</p><p>Another person familiar with the matter contacted by Bloomberg revealed that although the iPhone 14 may already be equipped with the hardware needed to implement satellite communications, the actual satellite communications functions may not be ready yet. He believes that Apple will not be able to integrate these functions until at least 2023. Ready.</p><p>So despite a lot of speculation in the industry, Apple is likely to temporarily change these features or directly abandon them before the actual release of the iPhone 14 on September 8.</p><p>According to Apple's habit, if a function is not polished and mature, it will never be released.</p><p>Regardless of whether Apple's iPhone 14 will support satellite communication functions, the stock price of the potential partner Global Star mentioned above has actually soared. In the past month, the stock price of Global Star has increased by more than 33%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dc4015bcdf21aa75aa9a204ec25477e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>▲ Global Star's stock price trend chart in the past month, source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Finance and Economics</p><p>Global Star has previously announced that it has signed an agreement with an \"undisclosed partner\" to develop a new service. Some insiders believe that the partner is most likely Apple.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IRDM\">Iridium Communications</a>(Iridium Communications) and Omnispace are the two major competitors of Global Star, but Apple does not currently cooperate with Iridium Communications, and industry analyst Tim Farrar also said that Omnispace has not promised to build a system to support such services.</p><p>The Iridium system used in Iridium communications originated from the \"Iridium Project\" proposed by Motorola at its peak in the 1990s-using 77 near-Earth satellites, we can make phone calls anywhere in the world.</p><p>But the final result was that 66 satellites were launched, and Motorola was already dragged down by huge investment. After the business was spun off, it survived and developed into today's Iridium communications, which makes people sigh its tenacious vitality.</p><p>Now it seems that this big cake of Apple satellite communications is exclusively enjoyed by Global Star.</p><p>Among the shareholders of Global Star, we can see Qualcomm. In fact, Global Star System is a low-orbit satellite mobile communication system proposed by the American company LQSS to the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) in June 1991, and LQSS is a company jointly established by Loral NASA and Qualcomm.</p><p>From a technical point of view, the satellite communication system used by Globalstar is different from the Iridium system used by its competitor Iridium Communications in terms of structural design and technology. Simply put, what the Globalstar system wants to achieve is that any user can access the joint networking of the ground public network through this system at any time.</p><p>The global satellite system uses low-orbit satellites to form a mobile communication satellite system that continuously covers the whole world. It is more like an extension and supplement to our existing terrestrial cellular mobile communication system and other mobile communication systems, rather than a mutual substitution relationship.</p><p>The technical characteristics and advantages of Global Star may also be Apple's main considerations when choosing it. After all, Apple has always only selected the top players in the industry when choosing suppliers.</p><p>Ming-Chi Kuo also believes that in the satellite communication service ecosystem, satellite communication operators such as Globalstar have high entry barriers and deserve high attention from investors.</p><p><b>04．</b></p><p><b>The implementation of satellite communications has started an accelerated mode, and the United States has become the absolute dominant market</b></p><p>At present, Apple's iPhone's use of satellite communications seems to be relatively advanced, which has attracted a lot of attention. However, in the near future, satellite communications may become the \"norm\" in the smartphone market.</p><p>Domestically, the Huawei Mate50 series can basically confirm that it will release some emergency information sending functions based on satellite communications before Apple.</p><p>Just recently, MediaTek, the world's largest mobile phone chip manufacturer in terms of shipments, also announced that it has successfully completed the world's first 5G NTN satellite mobile phone laboratory connection test, connecting smartphones to 5G non-terrestrial networks (NTN) and achieving high-speed and reliable 5G connections through satellites.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0bc7ae4ce1b37e9a685ee8522bc1b98\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"126\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In overseas markets, telecom giants T-Mobile and SpaceX have jointly announced that the Starlink (Starlink) satellite launched next year will be able to directly connect to operators' mobile phones through existing cellular network frequency bands. The two companies hope to enable users to enjoy global roaming services anywhere covered by satellites.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5185ce4522e9b8f7de5a376040825c2\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>▲ Left: Mike Sievert, right: Musk</p><p>On top of that, the service has the potential to be added to existing T-Mobile network plans for free.</p><p>In other words, if Apple's iPhone 14 does not support satellite communications, T-Mobile's operator contract phone users will be the first to enjoy satellite communications services next year.</p><p>\"It's like putting a cellular tower in the sky, but it's much more difficult,\" said T-Mobile CEO Mike Sievert.</p><p>SpaceX CEO Musk also added: \"What we have to do is not only rewrite the satellite program, but also create the world's most advanced phased array antenna... The satellite is flying at 17,000 miles per hour above our heads. Under normal circumstances, no signal tower can fly, let alone fly so fast.\"</p><p>It is understood that this service will initially support SMS sending, and may also support some even communication apps. Follow-up voice calls and real-time messaging are both possible, Musk said.</p><p>However, Sievert did not forget to \"get a vaccination\". He said that there are still some technical problems to be solved. For example, there may be a delay of about half an hour in the first release of news.</p><p>It can be seen that on the eve of the implementation of satellite communications on smartphones, there are still many problems to be solved.</p><p>Ten years ago, Google tried to use hydrogen balloons for large-area signal coverage, but the effect was not good and the cost was too high, so it finally gave up.</p><p>Today, the balloon was replaced with a satellite.</p><p>At present, the global communication market has reached an average annual scale of one trillion dollars, but the network coverage is less than 10% of the earth's area. Due to geographical constraints, the number of signal transmission towers is close to saturation.</p><p>According to data from Research And Markets, the global communications industry market size will reach US $3.461 billion in 2025, and it is estimated that the global satellite Internet output value will reach US $560-850 billion by 2025.</p><p>The entry of various technology giants has further accelerated the development of satellite Internet.</p><p>SpaceX is one of the new players who has a louder voice and moves faster. SpaceX first started implementing the Starlink project in 2019, planning to launch 42,000 Starlink satellites to form a Starlink network and provide satellite Internet services to the world. So far, about 2,000 satellites have been launched.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e8a1ce9f6dffcac6bc0d1177f99aa0b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601162\">Tianfeng Securities</a>According to the analysis, with the launch of the \"Starlink\" program of the United States, the competition for the development of global low-orbit satellites has become increasingly fierce, and the non-renewable strategic resource of space orbit and frequency band will become increasingly scarce.</p><p>The United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Russia have all accelerated the deployment of low-orbit satellites. Tianfeng Securities predicts that among the global low-Earth orbit satellites, the number of satellites launched by the United States will account for more than 90% in the future, reaching about 50,000.</p><p>Domestically, Jiutian MSI, a private commercial aerospace company invested by Xi'an Institute of Optics and Precision Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, entered seven \"ladybug series\" satellites in orbit in 2018, and carried out constellation Internet of Things verification in wildlife protection, field emergency rescue, vehicle and ship monitoring, logistics traceability and other fields.</p><p>In 2019, the Apocalypse Cangzhou satellite developed by Beijing Guodian Hi-Tech Technology Co., Ltd. was successfully put into orbit, realizing the initial networking operation of the Apocalypse Internet of Things constellation.</p><p>According to the research report of Tianfeng Securities, China currently has only three low-orbit broadband communication satellites in orbit, and the construction of satellite Internet is lagging behind.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3630f8c3b4701bcdc88c3256ceac413d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"195\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>▲ Global low-Earth orbit satellite layout and proportion in 2029 (units,%), source: Tianfeng Securities</p><p>In addition to SpaceX, OneWeb,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>And other technology companies are also entering this market as new players. In addition, the \"Big Three\" of traditional satellite suppliers such as SES of the United States, Eutelsat of Europe, and Intelsat of the International Telecommunications Satellite Organization have also launched their own high-throughput satellite plans to develop the satellite Internet market.</p><p>From mobile phone manufacturers, chip manufacturers, satellite manufacturers to satellite communication operators, the entire satellite Internet ecosystem is developing rapidly, and it is inevitable that satellite communications will be implemented in smartphones.</p><p><b>05．</b></p><p><b>Conclusion: Satellite communications become a new variable in the consumer electronics market</b></p><p>Whether Huawei Mate50 will beat Apple's iPhone 14 to become the world's first mainstream smartphone to support satellite communications will be announced next week. It is conceivable that if Apple's iPhone 14 supports this function, it will definitely drive the development of the entire industry chain, and we will also see more smartphones supporting satellite communications.</p><p>At present, satellite communications mainly solve communication problems in emergencies and remote areas without signal coverage, and are in a \"complementary\" relationship with existing cellular mobile networks. But with the maturity of satellite communication technology, will it further replace cellular mobile networks or even change the market structure of existing mobile network operators? There is room for imagination.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"zhidxcom","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple and Huawei's \"sky-breaking\" technology will bring up a 6 trillion market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple and Huawei's \"sky-breaking\" technology will bring up a 6 trillion market\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智东西</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-05 11:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Text/Yun Peng</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>After five years of satellite communications, Huawei is going to be the first to release it.</p><p>The \"space\" theme of Apple's invitation letter to this fall's conference has led many industry insiders to speculate that Apple's iPhone 14 series will support the long-rumored \"satellite communication\" function.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18353155b97d427c2bed5a8360d19ec\" tg-width=\"425\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Just this week, well-known Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo announced his latest research on Apple's satellite communication function. He believes that it is inevitable that the iPhone will support satellite communication, but whether this function will be implemented in the iPhone 14 is still not completely certain.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9eeced6fb7cbadb39705a7f52487c03c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As early as last year, Ming-Chi Kuo predicted that the iPhone 13 series might support satellite communications, but in the end this prediction did not come true. Bloomberg reporter Mark Gurman (Mark Gurman) also previewed what functions Apple's satellite communication function will have.</p><p>Ming-Chi Kuo also mentioned that Huawei's Mate50 series mobile phones, which will be released on September 6, may provide the ability to send emergency text messages through satellite communications based on the Beidou system.</p><p>As soon as Ming-Chi Kuo finished speaking, Huawei's terminal business CEO,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Yu Chengdong, CEO of Automotive Solutions BU, said that Huawei Mate50 will release a \"piercing the sky\" technology. Subsequently, Huawei insiders confirmed to the media that Huawei Mate50 will indeed support satellite communication functions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df76ef27e053384f384af515c68ba8fe\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In other words, Huawei will most likely release satellite communication functions ahead of Apple.</p><p>Why do Apple and Huawei bet on satellite communications one after another? What can an iPhone that supports satellite communications do, and what adjustments does an iPhone need to make to support satellite communications? Will satellite communications subvert our cellular mobile network today in the future?</p><p>A new revolution in the field of mobile communication technology is brewing.</p><p><b>01．</b></p><p><b>Satellite communication can \"save lives\" or become a must for smartphones</b></p><p>Earlier Bloomberg reporter Gurman mentioned that it has not been a day or two since Apple wanted to implement satellite communication functions on the iPhone.</p><p>Why does Apple have a soft spot for satellite communications, and what is the use of this feature?</p><p>In a word, this feature will allow us to send messages and make phone calls in areas without cell phone coverage.</p><p>For example, in some emergency situations where mobile phones have no signal, we can quickly send messages to emergency contacts; In some crashes, the accident location is often very remote and there is no signal from mobile phones. At this time, we can use satellite communication to report the accident situation in time.</p><p>Of course, for people who are lost during travel or exploration in remote areas, this function can also play a \"life-saving\" role in some remote mountainous areas, lakes and other places without 4G or 5G signal coverage.</p><p>Ming-Chi Kuo believes that the increasingly frequent natural disasters and geopolitical conflicts in recent years may make emergency communication capabilities based on satellite communications an essential function of smartphones.</p><p>Speaking of which, you may have some \"bold ideas\". If iPhone can communicate without signal, does that mean that we can get rid of the limitation of cellular mobile network and no longer need to apply for mobile network packages?</p><p>According to the information disclosed by informed sources, the initial application scope of Apple's satellite communication function is still relatively limited, mainly focusing on the handling of some crisis situations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5323ee5a63164caf27dded04b65201d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to people familiar with the matter, Apple is now developing at least two specific \"emergency features\", and these emergency features will rely on satellite networks, and Apple will apply these features in future iPhones.</p><p>The first function will be called \"Emergency Message via Satellite\", which allows users to send emergency messages through satellite networks when their mobile phones have no signal.</p><p>This feature will be integrated into iOS's messaging App and appear in the form of \"gray bubbles\" instead of the green or blue bubbles of ordinary messages.</p><p>The second function will be major accident reporting, such as plane crashes and ship sinks. This function also needs satellite network support.</p><p>Apple's satellite communication tool for reporting major accidents is internally codenamed \"Stewie\". This tool will limit the length of messages sent, and these messages will be automatically sent to the emergency contact's mobile phone, even if the emergency contact has set \"Do Not Disturb\", the mobile phone will receive the message and prompt it.</p><p>In this feature, the phone will ask the user what kind of crisis situation they have encountered, whether it involves a car, ship, plane or fire. In addition, users can further report more specific information, such as whether there are casualties, whether search and rescue services are needed, whether there is suspicious behavior or gun threats.</p><p>When the user uses the emergency service, the mobile phone will send the user's location information and medical ID. The medical ID is a virtual card in the Apple Health App, which records the user's age, medical history, medication status, height and weight and other information.</p><p>Apple has designed a sending method internally. As long as users enter the phrase \"Emergency SOS\", the mobile phone will automatically send the information to the emergency contact.</p><p>Apple has also tested a method of connecting to satellites internally, which requires users to walk outdoors in a certain direction to help the iPhone get satellite signal, and this connection is not instant, sometimes it may take a minute or so to complete.</p><p>In addition to sending text messages, the satellite communication tool may also have the ability to handle satellite phone calls later.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f88036aaa8407c20f00a536977da71fa\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, in the final analysis, whether these functions can be realized depends in part on the availability of satellites and whether local regulations allow it. Obviously, this feature is not applicable to all countries and regions.</p><p><b>02．</b></p><p><b>Hardware testing is in place, customized baseband chips, Apple has to \"launch satellites\"?</b></p><p>These functions have been brewing for a long time. In fact, Apple has been committed to the research of satellite-related technologies for many years. Bloomberg said that the Apple team's exploration in this field can be traced back to 2017.</p><p>On August 29, 2021, Ming-Chi Kuo predicted that the iPhone 13 series will support satellite communication capabilities. He mentioned that the iPhone 13 series<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>The X60 5G baseband will support low-earth orbit satellite communications.</p><p>Ming-Chi Kuo's main basis for making these judgments is Apple's 5G baseband supplier Qualcomm and the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSAT\">Global Star</a>(Globalstar) companies have cooperation in this field.</p><p>Regarding the specific business model, he believes that if the user's operator (such as T-Mobile and Verizon) has cooperated with Globalstar, then the user can directly use Globalstar's satellite communication services through the operator's services.</p><p>In Ming-Chi Kuo's latest analysis, he mentioned that Apple has now completed the hardware test of the satellite communication function. Whether Apple will specifically apply this function depends on whether Apple and operators can negotiate a business model.</p><p>He believes that Apple completed the hardware development of satellite communication functions as early as the iPhone 13 period, but the business model had not yet been determined at that time.</p><p>Once the Apple iPhone has satellite communication capabilities, it will be the first mainstream smartphone to support this feature. Ming-Chi Kuo also mentioned that if other mobile phone manufacturers also want to use satellite communication functions, they will probably be one year later than Apple.</p><p>Satellite phones are nothing new. At present, consumer satellite phones can be easily purchased. Satellite phones generally require a large independent antenna, and in some cases, some other auxiliary equipment is needed to capture and relay satellite signals.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6fc40c46b0f4e5cfefdf8a0b5d261ff\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>▲ Common satellite phones and accessories on the market</p><p>What \"customizations\" will Apple make to the baseband chip to achieve this function? How will Apple design the antenna that implements this communication function? There are still no clear answers to these questions, which are of great concern to the industry. But what is certain is that in order to connect to satellites, Apple does need a \"customized\" communication chip that is different from the existing 5G baseband.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56224f71d750b0bf58685141398b7b44\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Ming-Chi Kuo also mentioned that Apple's trial of satellite communication technology on the iPhone is just the beginning. In the future, Apple's MR headsets and even Apple's electric vehicles will improve their experience through the addition of satellite communication technology.</p><p>Not long ago, Gurman revealed that the \"Pro\" version of Apple Watch that Apple will launch will also support satellite communication functions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b111b89cfb4e51c1b8cff2a5509ae1a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg reported that in the further future, Apple is even considering eventually deploying its own satellites, but the realization of recent functions will rely on existing satellite networks.</p><p>Considering Apple's habit of keeping key technologies in its own hands, we wouldn't be too surprised if they really developed their own communication satellites and launched them into space to form their own satellite communication network.</p><p><b>03．</b></p><p><b>Who is the \"global star\" who exclusively enjoys Apple's big orders?</b></p><p>Although Apple's ideals are full, returning to reality, can we really see satellite communications landing on the iPhone 14 this year?</p><p>Another person familiar with the matter contacted by Bloomberg revealed that although the iPhone 14 may already be equipped with the hardware needed to implement satellite communications, the actual satellite communications functions may not be ready yet. He believes that Apple will not be able to integrate these functions until at least 2023. Ready.</p><p>So despite a lot of speculation in the industry, Apple is likely to temporarily change these features or directly abandon them before the actual release of the iPhone 14 on September 8.</p><p>According to Apple's habit, if a function is not polished and mature, it will never be released.</p><p>Regardless of whether Apple's iPhone 14 will support satellite communication functions, the stock price of the potential partner Global Star mentioned above has actually soared. In the past month, the stock price of Global Star has increased by more than 33%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dc4015bcdf21aa75aa9a204ec25477e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>▲ Global Star's stock price trend chart in the past month, source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Finance and Economics</p><p>Global Star has previously announced that it has signed an agreement with an \"undisclosed partner\" to develop a new service. Some insiders believe that the partner is most likely Apple.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IRDM\">Iridium Communications</a>(Iridium Communications) and Omnispace are the two major competitors of Global Star, but Apple does not currently cooperate with Iridium Communications, and industry analyst Tim Farrar also said that Omnispace has not promised to build a system to support such services.</p><p>The Iridium system used in Iridium communications originated from the \"Iridium Project\" proposed by Motorola at its peak in the 1990s-using 77 near-Earth satellites, we can make phone calls anywhere in the world.</p><p>But the final result was that 66 satellites were launched, and Motorola was already dragged down by huge investment. After the business was spun off, it survived and developed into today's Iridium communications, which makes people sigh its tenacious vitality.</p><p>Now it seems that this big cake of Apple satellite communications is exclusively enjoyed by Global Star.</p><p>Among the shareholders of Global Star, we can see Qualcomm. In fact, Global Star System is a low-orbit satellite mobile communication system proposed by the American company LQSS to the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) in June 1991, and LQSS is a company jointly established by Loral NASA and Qualcomm.</p><p>From a technical point of view, the satellite communication system used by Globalstar is different from the Iridium system used by its competitor Iridium Communications in terms of structural design and technology. Simply put, what the Globalstar system wants to achieve is that any user can access the joint networking of the ground public network through this system at any time.</p><p>The global satellite system uses low-orbit satellites to form a mobile communication satellite system that continuously covers the whole world. It is more like an extension and supplement to our existing terrestrial cellular mobile communication system and other mobile communication systems, rather than a mutual substitution relationship.</p><p>The technical characteristics and advantages of Global Star may also be Apple's main considerations when choosing it. After all, Apple has always only selected the top players in the industry when choosing suppliers.</p><p>Ming-Chi Kuo also believes that in the satellite communication service ecosystem, satellite communication operators such as Globalstar have high entry barriers and deserve high attention from investors.</p><p><b>04．</b></p><p><b>The implementation of satellite communications has started an accelerated mode, and the United States has become the absolute dominant market</b></p><p>At present, Apple's iPhone's use of satellite communications seems to be relatively advanced, which has attracted a lot of attention. However, in the near future, satellite communications may become the \"norm\" in the smartphone market.</p><p>Domestically, the Huawei Mate50 series can basically confirm that it will release some emergency information sending functions based on satellite communications before Apple.</p><p>Just recently, MediaTek, the world's largest mobile phone chip manufacturer in terms of shipments, also announced that it has successfully completed the world's first 5G NTN satellite mobile phone laboratory connection test, connecting smartphones to 5G non-terrestrial networks (NTN) and achieving high-speed and reliable 5G connections through satellites.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0bc7ae4ce1b37e9a685ee8522bc1b98\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"126\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In overseas markets, telecom giants T-Mobile and SpaceX have jointly announced that the Starlink (Starlink) satellite launched next year will be able to directly connect to operators' mobile phones through existing cellular network frequency bands. The two companies hope to enable users to enjoy global roaming services anywhere covered by satellites.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5185ce4522e9b8f7de5a376040825c2\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>▲ Left: Mike Sievert, right: Musk</p><p>On top of that, the service has the potential to be added to existing T-Mobile network plans for free.</p><p>In other words, if Apple's iPhone 14 does not support satellite communications, T-Mobile's operator contract phone users will be the first to enjoy satellite communications services next year.</p><p>\"It's like putting a cellular tower in the sky, but it's much more difficult,\" said T-Mobile CEO Mike Sievert.</p><p>SpaceX CEO Musk also added: \"What we have to do is not only rewrite the satellite program, but also create the world's most advanced phased array antenna... The satellite is flying at 17,000 miles per hour above our heads. Under normal circumstances, no signal tower can fly, let alone fly so fast.\"</p><p>It is understood that this service will initially support SMS sending, and may also support some even communication apps. Follow-up voice calls and real-time messaging are both possible, Musk said.</p><p>However, Sievert did not forget to \"get a vaccination\". He said that there are still some technical problems to be solved. For example, there may be a delay of about half an hour in the first release of news.</p><p>It can be seen that on the eve of the implementation of satellite communications on smartphones, there are still many problems to be solved.</p><p>Ten years ago, Google tried to use hydrogen balloons for large-area signal coverage, but the effect was not good and the cost was too high, so it finally gave up.</p><p>Today, the balloon was replaced with a satellite.</p><p>At present, the global communication market has reached an average annual scale of one trillion dollars, but the network coverage is less than 10% of the earth's area. Due to geographical constraints, the number of signal transmission towers is close to saturation.</p><p>According to data from Research And Markets, the global communications industry market size will reach US $3.461 billion in 2025, and it is estimated that the global satellite Internet output value will reach US $560-850 billion by 2025.</p><p>The entry of various technology giants has further accelerated the development of satellite Internet.</p><p>SpaceX is one of the new players who has a louder voice and moves faster. SpaceX first started implementing the Starlink project in 2019, planning to launch 42,000 Starlink satellites to form a Starlink network and provide satellite Internet services to the world. So far, about 2,000 satellites have been launched.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e8a1ce9f6dffcac6bc0d1177f99aa0b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601162\">Tianfeng Securities</a>According to the analysis, with the launch of the \"Starlink\" program of the United States, the competition for the development of global low-orbit satellites has become increasingly fierce, and the non-renewable strategic resource of space orbit and frequency band will become increasingly scarce.</p><p>The United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Russia have all accelerated the deployment of low-orbit satellites. Tianfeng Securities predicts that among the global low-Earth orbit satellites, the number of satellites launched by the United States will account for more than 90% in the future, reaching about 50,000.</p><p>Domestically, Jiutian MSI, a private commercial aerospace company invested by Xi'an Institute of Optics and Precision Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, entered seven \"ladybug series\" satellites in orbit in 2018, and carried out constellation Internet of Things verification in wildlife protection, field emergency rescue, vehicle and ship monitoring, logistics traceability and other fields.</p><p>In 2019, the Apocalypse Cangzhou satellite developed by Beijing Guodian Hi-Tech Technology Co., Ltd. was successfully put into orbit, realizing the initial networking operation of the Apocalypse Internet of Things constellation.</p><p>According to the research report of Tianfeng Securities, China currently has only three low-orbit broadband communication satellites in orbit, and the construction of satellite Internet is lagging behind.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3630f8c3b4701bcdc88c3256ceac413d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"195\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>▲ Global low-Earth orbit satellite layout and proportion in 2029 (units,%), source: Tianfeng Securities</p><p>In addition to SpaceX, OneWeb,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>And other technology companies are also entering this market as new players. In addition, the \"Big Three\" of traditional satellite suppliers such as SES of the United States, Eutelsat of Europe, and Intelsat of the International Telecommunications Satellite Organization have also launched their own high-throughput satellite plans to develop the satellite Internet market.</p><p>From mobile phone manufacturers, chip manufacturers, satellite manufacturers to satellite communication operators, the entire satellite Internet ecosystem is developing rapidly, and it is inevitable that satellite communications will be implemented in smartphones.</p><p><b>05．</b></p><p><b>Conclusion: Satellite communications become a new variable in the consumer electronics market</b></p><p>Whether Huawei Mate50 will beat Apple's iPhone 14 to become the world's first mainstream smartphone to support satellite communications will be announced next week. It is conceivable that if Apple's iPhone 14 supports this function, it will definitely drive the development of the entire industry chain, and we will also see more smartphones supporting satellite communications.</p><p>At present, satellite communications mainly solve communication problems in emergencies and remote areas without signal coverage, and are in a \"complementary\" relationship with existing cellular mobile networks. But with the maturity of satellite communication technology, will it further replace cellular mobile networks or even change the market structure of existing mobile network operators? There is room for imagination.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2022-09-05/doc-imqmmtha5965035.shtml\">智东西</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63cb0cbfd2e4993bc712a35644e8465b","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2022-09-05/doc-imqmmtha5965035.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138935850","content_text":"文/云鹏苹果搞了五年的卫星通信，华为要抢先发布了。苹果今年秋季发布会邀请函的“太空”主题，让不少业内人士猜测，苹果iPhone 14系列将会支持传言已久的“卫星通信（satellite communication）”功能。就在本周，知名苹果分析师郭明錤公布了他对于苹果卫星通信功能的最新研究，他认为，iPhone支持卫星通信已是必然，但该功能是否会在iPhone 14中落地，仍不能完全确定。早在去年，郭明錤就预测iPhone 13系列可能会支持卫星通信，然而最终该预言并未成真。彭博社记者马克·古尔曼（Mark Gurman）也曾对苹果的卫星通信功能将具备哪些功能进行了前瞻。郭明錤还提到，华为即将于9月6日发布的Mate50系列手机，可能会通过基于北斗系统的卫星通信提供发送紧急短讯的能力。郭明錤话音刚落，华为终端业务CEO、智能汽车解决方案BU CEO余承东就放话称，华为Mate50将发布一项“捅破天”的技术。随后有华为内部人士向媒体证实，华为Mate50的确将支持卫星通信功能。也就是说，华为大概率将抢先苹果发布卫星通信功能。苹果华为为何接连押宝卫星通信？一部支持卫星通信的iPhone到底能做什么，而一部iPhone要想支持卫星通信又需要做哪些调整，未来卫星通信是否会颠覆我们今天的蜂窝移动网络？一场移动通信技术领域的新变革，正在酝酿。01．卫星通信能“救命”，或成智能手机必备前文彭博社记者古尔曼提到，苹果想在iPhone上实现卫星通信功能，已经不是一天两天了。苹果为什么对卫星通信情有独钟，这个功能有什么用呢？一句话总结，该功能将允许我们在没有手机信号覆盖的区域发消息、打电话。比如在一些手机没有信号的紧急情况下，我们可以快速给紧急联系人发送消息；在一些坠机事故中，事故地点往往十分偏远，手机没有信号，这时我们就可以利用卫星通信及时上报事故情况。当然，对于在偏远地区旅行或探险中走失的人来说，在一些偏远山区、湖泊等没有4G或5G信号覆盖的地方，这一功能也能起到“救命”的作用。郭明錤认为，近年来日益频繁的自然灾害和地缘政治冲突，可能会让基于卫星通信的紧急通讯能力成为智能手机的必备功能。说到这里，你可能会有一些“大胆的想法”，如果iPhone可以在没有信号的情况下通信，那是不是意味着，我们可以摆脱蜂窝移动网络的限制，不再需要办理移动网络套餐了呢？就目前知情人士透露信息来看，苹果卫星通信功能初期应用范围还比较有限，主要集中于一些危机情况的处理。知情人士称，苹果现在至少在开发两个具体的“应急功能（emergency features）”，而这种应急功能都将依赖于卫星网络，苹果将在未来的iPhone中应用这些功能。第一个功能将被称为“通过卫星发送紧急信息（Emergency Message via Satellite）”，用户可以在手机没信号的时候，通过卫星网络发送紧急信息。这一功能将会被集成在iOS的信息App中，以“灰色气泡”形式出现，而非普通消息的绿色或蓝色气泡。第二个功能将是重大事故报告，比如飞机坠毁、船舶沉没，该功能同样需要卫星网络支持。实现重大事故报告的苹果卫星通信工具，其内部代号为“Stewie”，该工具将会限制发送信息的长度，而这些信息将会被自动发送到紧急联系人的手机上，即使紧急联系人已经设置了“勿扰”，手机也会收到信息并进行提示。在该功能中，手机会询问用户遇到了什么样的危机情况，涉及汽车、船舶、飞机还是火灾。此外，用户还可以进一步上报更具体的信息，比如是否有人员伤亡、是否需要搜救服务、是否有可疑行为或涉及枪支威胁。当用户使用该紧急服务时，手机会发送用户的位置信息和医疗ID，医疗ID是苹果健康App中的一张虚拟卡片，记录了用户的年龄、病史、用药情况以及身高体重等信息。苹果内部曾设计了一种发送方式，用户只要输入“Emergency SOS（紧急求救）”这组短语，手机就会自动将信息发送给紧急联系人。苹果内部还测试了一种连接卫星的方法，该方法要求用户在户外朝着某个方向行走，以帮助iPhone获取卫星信号，并且这种连接并不是即时的，有时可能需要一分钟左右的时间才能完成。除了发送短信，该卫星通信工具后续可能还会具备处理卫星电话呼叫的能力。不过说到底，这些功能能否实现，部分要取决于卫星的可用性以及当地法规是否允许。很显然，该功能并不适用于所有国家和地区。02．硬件测试已就位，定制基带芯片，苹果还要“放卫星”？上述这些功能，早已酝酿多时。实际上，苹果多年来一直致力于卫星相关技术的研究，彭博社称，苹果团队在该领域的探索最早可以追溯到2017年。2021年8月29日，郭明錤预测iPhone 13系列将会支持卫星通信能力。他提到，iPhone 13系列上搭载的高通X60 5G基带将会支持低轨卫星通信（low-earth orbit satellite communications）。郭明錤做出这些判断的主要依据是苹果5G基带供应商高通与美国全球星（Globalstar）公司在该领域有合作。关于具体的商业模式，他认为，如果用户的运营商（比如T-Mobile、Verizon）已经与全球星合作，那么用户就可以通过运营商的服务直接使用全球星的卫星通信服务。在郭明錤最新分析中，他提到苹果现在已经完成了卫星通信功能的硬件测试，苹果是否会具体应用这一功能，还取决于苹果和运营商能否谈妥商业模式。他认为，苹果早在iPhone 13时期就完成了卫星通信功能的硬件开发，但当时还没有确定好商业模式。一旦苹果iPhone具备了卫星通信功能，它将是第一款支持该功能的主流智能手机。郭明錤还提到，其他手机厂商如果也想使用卫星通信功能，很可能将会晚于苹果一年。卫星电话并不是什么新鲜事物，目前消费级的卫星电话也已经可以很容易的购买到。卫星电话一般都需要有一个体积较大的独立天线，在一些情况下，还需要一些其他辅助设备来捕捉和中继卫星信号。▲市面上常见的卫星电话及附件苹果会对基带芯片做哪些“定制”以实现这一功能？苹果会如何设计实现该通信功能的天线？这些问题仍然没有明确答案，也是业内颇为关注的。但可以确定的是，为了连接卫星，苹果的确需要一种区别于现有5G基带的“定制”通信芯片。郭明錤还提到，苹果在iPhone上尝试卫星通信技术，只是一个开始，未来苹果的MR头显，甚至是苹果的电动汽车也将通过卫星通信技术的加入而实现体验的提升。前不久，古尔曼曾透露，苹果将要推出的“Pro”版Apple Watch也将支持卫星通信功能。彭博社报道透露，在更远的未来，苹果甚至考虑最终会部署自己的卫星，但近期功能的实现会依赖现有卫星网络。考虑到苹果倾向于将关键技术掌握在自己手里的习惯，如果他们真的自研通信卫星并发射到太空中，组建自己的卫星通信网络，我们也不会太过意外。03．独享苹果大单的“全球星”是何许人也？虽然苹果的理想很丰满，但回归现实，今年我们真的能看到卫星通信落地iPhone 14吗？彭博社联系到的另一位知情人士透露，尽管iPhone 14上可能已经搭载了实现卫星通信所需要的硬件，但实际的卫星通信功能可能还没有准备好，他认为至少到2023年苹果才能够将这些功能准备好。所以尽管业内猜测不少，但苹果很可能在9月8日真正发布iPhone 14之前临时将这些特性更改或者直接放弃。按照苹果的习惯，一项功能如果没有打磨成熟，它是绝对不会拿出来发布的。不管苹果iPhone 14是否会支持卫星通信功能，前文提到的潜在合作方全球星的股价是实实在在的狂涨了一波，近一个月，全球星股价涨幅超过了33%。▲全球星近一个月股价走势图，来源：谷歌财经全球星此前曾公布，自己已经与一个“未公开合作方”签署了一份协议，用于开发一项新的服务。有业内人士认为，该合作方大概率是苹果。铱星通讯（Iridium Communications）和Omnispace是全球星的两大竞争对手，但苹果目前并没有与铱星通讯进行合作，而行业分析师Tim Farrar也表示，Omnispace没有承诺过会建立支持此类服务的系统。铱星通讯所使用的铱系统源自于20世纪90年代摩托罗拉在其最辉煌的时候提出的“铱星计划”——用77颗近地卫星，让我们在世界任何地方都可以打电话。但最后结果是，卫星打上去了66颗，摩托罗拉已经要被巨额投入拖垮，该业务分拆后得以存活，发展成为今天的铱星通讯，不禁令人感叹其顽强的生命力。现在看来，苹果卫星通信的这块大蛋糕，是由全球星独享的。在全球星的股东中，我们能够看到高通的身影，实际上，全球星系统是美国LQSS公司于1991年6月向美国联邦通信委员会（FCC）提出的低轨道卫星移动通信系统，而LQSS是由Loral宇航局和高通共同组建的一家公司。从技术层面来看，全球星使用的卫星通信系统，在结构设计和技术上跟它竞争对手铱星通讯使用的铱系统有所不同，简单来说，全球星系统要实现的是全球范围内任意用户随时可以通过该系统接入地面公共网联合组网。全球星系统利用低轨卫星组成一个连续覆盖全球的移动通信卫星系统，它更像是是我们现有的地面蜂窝移动通信系统和其他移动通信系统的一种延申和补充，并非一种相互替代关系。全球星的技术特性和优势，或许也是苹果选择它的主要考虑因素，毕竟，苹果选择供应商，向来只会选择行业最顶级玩家。郭明錤也认为，在卫星通信服务生态系统中，全球星这类卫星通信运营商进入门槛很高，值得投资者高度关注。04．卫星通信落地开启加速模式，美国已成市场绝对主导目前苹果iPhone对于卫星通信的使用看起来比较超前，引起了不小的关注度，但在不久的未来，卫星通信或许将成为智能手机市场的“常态”。国内这边，华为Mate50系列基本都能够确定将先于苹果发布基于卫星通信的一些紧急信息发送功能。就在最近，作为全球出货量第一的手机芯片厂商联发科，也宣布成功完成了全球首次5G NTN卫星手机实验室连线测试，将智能手机接入了5G非地面网络（NTN），通过卫星实现了高速可靠的5G连接。在海外市场，电信巨头T-Mobile和SpaceX已经联合宣布，明年发射的Starlink（星链）卫星将能够通过现有蜂窝网络频段直接连接到运营商的手机。两家公司希望能够让用户在卫星覆盖到的任何地方享受全球漫游服务。▲左：Mike Sievert，右：马斯克最重要的是，这项服务有可能被免费添加到现有的T-Mobile网络套餐中。也就是说，如果苹果iPhone 14没有支持卫星通信，明年T-Mobile的运营商合约机用户就可以率先享受到卫星通信服务。T-Mobile的CEO Mike Sievert说：“这就像在天空中放置一个蜂窝式信号塔，只不过难度大得多。”SpaceX CEO马斯克也补充道：“我们要做的不仅是重写卫星程序，还要制造一种世界上最先进的相控阵天线……卫星在我们头上以每小时1.7万英里的时速飞行，正常情况下，没有信号塔会飞，更不会飞的这么快。”据了解，这项服务初期会支持短信发送，可能还会支持一些即使通讯App。马斯克说，后续语音通话和实时信息传递都是有可能的。不过Sievert不忘“打个预防针”，他说现在还有一些技术问题需要解决，比如现在消息的首发可能会有半个小时左右的延迟。可以看到，在卫星通信落地智能手机的前夜，要解决的难题还是不少。十年前，谷歌曾尝试利用氢气球进行大面积信号覆盖，但效果不好，成本也太高了，最终放弃。今天，气球换成了卫星。目前，全球通信市场已达到年均万亿美元规模，但网络覆盖范围不足地球面积的 10%。由于地理因素限制，信号发射塔数量已接近饱和。根据Research And Markets数据，2025年，全球通信产业市场规模将达到34610亿美元，预计2025年前，全球卫星互联网产值可达5600-8500亿美元。各路科技巨头的入局，进一步加快了卫星互联网的发展。SpaceX属于新晋玩家中声量比较大、走的比较快的一个。SpaceX最早从2019年开始实施星链项目，计划发射4.2万颗星链卫星，形成星链网络，为全球提供卫星互联网服务，目前已经发射约2000颗卫星。天风证券分析认为，随着美国“星链”计划启动，全球低轨卫星发展竞争日益激烈，空间轨道和频段这一不可再生的战略资源将日益紧缺。美国、英国、加拿大、俄罗斯都已经加速低轨卫星铺设，天风证券预计，在全球近地轨道卫星中，未来美国发射卫星数量占比将超九成，达到约50000颗。国内这边，中国科学院西安光学精密机械研究所投资的民营商业航天公司九天微星于2018年入轨了7 颗“瓢虫系列”卫星，在野生动物保护、野外应急救援、车辆船舶监测、物流追溯等领域开展星座物联网验证。2019 年，北京国电高科科技有限公司研制的天启·沧州号卫星成功入轨，实现了天启物联网星座初步组网运行。天风证券研报认为，中国目前仅有3颗在轨运行的低轨宽带通信卫星，卫星互联网建设较为滞后。▲2029 年全球近地轨道卫星布局及占比（颗，%），来源：天风证券除了SpaceX，OneWeb、亚马逊等科技公司也作为新玩家进入这一市场。另外，如美国SES、欧洲Eutelsat、国际通信卫星组织Intelsat等传统卫星供应商“三巨头”，也都启动了自己的高通量卫星计划，发力卫星互联网市场。从手机厂商、芯片厂商、卫星厂商再到卫星通信运营商，整个卫星互联网生态都在快速向前发展，而卫星通信落地智能手机，已是必然。05．结语：卫星通信成消费电子市场新变量华为Mate50是否会抢先苹果iPhone 14成为全球第一款支持卫星通信的主流智能手机，答案即将在下周揭晓。可以想象，如果苹果iPhone 14支持这一功能，必将会带动整个产业链的发展，我们也将会看到更多智能手机支持卫星通信。目前来看，卫星通信主要解决的是紧急情况下、偏远无信号覆盖地区的通信问题，与现有的蜂窝移动网络，是一种“互补”的关系。但随着卫星通信技术的成熟，其是否会进一步取代蜂窝移动网络，甚至改变现有移动网络运营商市场格局？都存在想象空间。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":948,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9933666947,"gmtCreate":1662275507489,"gmtModify":1676537029657,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090574021972690","idStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9933666947","repostId":"1124597083","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1124597083","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1662253428,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124597083?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-04 09:03","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Chase hot stocks or invest in \"black holes\", remember to stay away from such stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124597083","media":"券商中国","summary":"本周，股神巴菲特两度出售比亚迪H股的消息，引发市场高度关注。在炮声隆隆中买进，在号角吹响时卖出，这正是股神对交易性投资机会的买卖原则。普通投资者容易被热门股票不断上升的股价蒙住双眼，但热门行业的热门股","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>This week, Warren Buffett sold twice<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>The news of H shares has aroused great concern in the market. Buy in the rumble of guns and sell when the horn blows. This is the trading principle of stock gods for trading investment opportunities.</p><p>Ordinary investors are easily blindfolded by the rising stock prices of popular stocks, but popular stocks in popular industries are often the source of painful losses for investors. Popular stocks are often expensive, and the valuation itself contains extremely high growth expectations. Once the facts are inconsistent with expectations, the valuation will decline rapidly. After the bubble burst, the share prices of many popular stocks are often less than a fraction of their peak.</p><p>In the A-share bull market from 2013 to 2015, the media industry was undoubtedly the hottest stock. However, in less than a year after the bubble burst, many media stocks fell by nearly 70%, and since the peak of market value in 2015, the hot media leading stocks at that time fell by nearly 90%; Similarly, in the big bull market from 2005 to 2007, stocks with Chinese prefixes were highly sought after, such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600150\">China Ships</a>It once reached 300 yuan per share, but the stock price fell by 80% in 2008. Now, almost 15 years have passed, and the stock price of China Shipbuilding is still hovering in 26 yuan.</p><p>Although there are also very few popular stocks that can cross bulls and bears, such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>Companies such as those used to be hot stocks, but if investors chase hot stocks with excessively high valuations, they have to be psychologically prepared to de-bubble for a long time.</p><p><b>Chasing hot stocks or investing in \"black holes\"</b></p><p>\"As long as you resolutely refrain from buying stocks with particularly high P/E, you will avoid great pain and huge investment losses. With rare exceptions, particularly high P/E is an obstacle to rising stock prices, just as particularly heavy saddles are an obstacle to racehorses.\" As legendary fund manager Peter Lynch said, chasing hot stocks is the main source of investor losses.</p><p>In the bull market of 2013-2015, the concept of media soared, but investors who were tempted paid a heavy price. In the year after the Shanghai Composite Index hit 5,178 points in 2015, many leading media stocks fell by more than 60%. So far, seven years have passed, and the stock prices of some individual stocks are only about 10% off the original high point.</p><p>When the bull market broke out in 2015, media stocks also met the concept of high growth. Such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300027\">Huayi Brothers</a>The compound annual growth rate of net profit in the three years from 2012 to 2015 was as high as 70%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600637\">Oriental Pearl Tower</a>The compound annual growth rate of net profit from 2012 to 2015 is as high as 80%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300291\">Bai Na Qiancheng</a>The compound annual growth rate of net profit from 2012 to 2015 also reached 30%.</p><p>The high growth of the media industry has been sought after by the market. From 2012 to 2015, Huayi Brothers, Baina Qiancheng,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600986\">Zhejiang Internet</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000156\">Wasu Media</a>Many media stocks rose by about 10 times. But in just one year after the bubble burst in 2015, these stocks all fell by more than 50%. Since mid-2015, the original leading stocks such as Huayi Brothers and Baina Qiancheng have fallen by more than 90%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32db6c15c7706df6630577ae58859e0d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"992\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This scene also seems familiar. In the bull market from 2005 to 2007, due to factors such as the concept of the Olympic Games, large-cap stocks with Chinese prefix were sought after by investors. However, after the bubble burst, the Chinese prefix sector became the hardest hit area for the decline. Such as Chinese ships,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACH\">Aluminum of China</a>The decline of other companies in 2018 exceeded 80%, and the stock prices of these companies are still far from their original highs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0584e8c7575e87abd7fedeae90911d5b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Don't Let Hot Stocks Become Wealth Meat Grinders</b></p><p>Although a few popular stocks have the ability to satisfy the market for a long time, most popular stocks will eventually become featureless common stocks, suffering from the double kill of declining valuation and performance, and becoming the meat grinder of wealth. The P/E of a popular company is usually high, and only when its earnings keep growing at a high rate in the future can it maintain the high stock price that investors paid for it in the past.</p><p>As John Neff, who has been at the helm of the Windsor Fund for 30 years, said, some trend investors like to pin their hopes on high-growth companies, but the performance decline of such companies in any quarter is enough to devastate the market. Even if their performance is only one step away from the expected target, and it is conceivable that the final corporate profits will fluctuate greatly, the market will still not give any forgiveness.</p><p>\"High P/E stocks are very fragile. Once the expectation of high growth rate is missed, the market's view of the company will be a thousand miles wrong. No matter how much the actual difference is, this uncertainty alone is enough to hit the stock price hard,\" Johann Neff once said.</p><p>Under high expectations, investors are also demanding. Once the performance growth of well-known growth stocks is lower than market expectations, investors will speculate that the company's high growth is no longer available, and the direct consequence of changes in investor sentiment is the P/E plunge of popular stocks. Even if the company's earnings per share remain unchanged, if P/E plunges from 40 times to 10 times, the stock price will plummet by 70%.</p><p>It is worth noting that the profit model is not a particularly good hot industry. If the homogeneity is strong and the competition is mainly won by price, the industry will face two major consequences: difficulty in improving profit margins and returning valuations after peaking. If investors catch up with higher valuations, they may face greater debubble risks.</p><p>As in the 1960s,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XRX\">Xerox</a>The company's stock was very hot. At that time, the photocopying industry was a fabulous industry, and \"Xerox\" became synonymous with photocopying, but with Japan<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAJ\">Canon</a>After entering the photocopying industry, fierce competition and the failure of diversification caused Xerox's share price to fall by 84%.</p><p>\"If there is one stock I avoid buying, it must be the hottest stock in the hottest industry. This kind of stock is widely watched. Every investor will hear people talk about this kind of stock in the car or train on the way to and from work. The average person tends to buy this kind of stock because of this strong social pressure.\" Peter Lynch once said that hot stocks rise fast, always rising far beyond the value estimated by any valuation method, but because only investors' wishful thinking is supporting the rapid rise of stock prices, while the substance of company fundamentals is as thin as air, hot stocks fall as fast as they rise.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chase hot stocks or invest in \"black holes\", remember to stay away from such stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChase hot stocks or invest in \"black holes\", remember to stay away from such stocks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-04 09:03</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>This week, Warren Buffett sold twice<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>The news of H shares has aroused great concern in the market. Buy in the rumble of guns and sell when the horn blows. This is the trading principle of stock gods for trading investment opportunities.</p><p>Ordinary investors are easily blindfolded by the rising stock prices of popular stocks, but popular stocks in popular industries are often the source of painful losses for investors. Popular stocks are often expensive, and the valuation itself contains extremely high growth expectations. Once the facts are inconsistent with expectations, the valuation will decline rapidly. After the bubble burst, the share prices of many popular stocks are often less than a fraction of their peak.</p><p>In the A-share bull market from 2013 to 2015, the media industry was undoubtedly the hottest stock. However, in less than a year after the bubble burst, many media stocks fell by nearly 70%, and since the peak of market value in 2015, the hot media leading stocks at that time fell by nearly 90%; Similarly, in the big bull market from 2005 to 2007, stocks with Chinese prefixes were highly sought after, such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600150\">China Ships</a>It once reached 300 yuan per share, but the stock price fell by 80% in 2008. Now, almost 15 years have passed, and the stock price of China Shipbuilding is still hovering in 26 yuan.</p><p>Although there are also very few popular stocks that can cross bulls and bears, such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>Companies such as those used to be hot stocks, but if investors chase hot stocks with excessively high valuations, they have to be psychologically prepared to de-bubble for a long time.</p><p><b>Chasing hot stocks or investing in \"black holes\"</b></p><p>\"As long as you resolutely refrain from buying stocks with particularly high P/E, you will avoid great pain and huge investment losses. With rare exceptions, particularly high P/E is an obstacle to rising stock prices, just as particularly heavy saddles are an obstacle to racehorses.\" As legendary fund manager Peter Lynch said, chasing hot stocks is the main source of investor losses.</p><p>In the bull market of 2013-2015, the concept of media soared, but investors who were tempted paid a heavy price. In the year after the Shanghai Composite Index hit 5,178 points in 2015, many leading media stocks fell by more than 60%. So far, seven years have passed, and the stock prices of some individual stocks are only about 10% off the original high point.</p><p>When the bull market broke out in 2015, media stocks also met the concept of high growth. Such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300027\">Huayi Brothers</a>The compound annual growth rate of net profit in the three years from 2012 to 2015 was as high as 70%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600637\">Oriental Pearl Tower</a>The compound annual growth rate of net profit from 2012 to 2015 is as high as 80%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300291\">Bai Na Qiancheng</a>The compound annual growth rate of net profit from 2012 to 2015 also reached 30%.</p><p>The high growth of the media industry has been sought after by the market. From 2012 to 2015, Huayi Brothers, Baina Qiancheng,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600986\">Zhejiang Internet</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000156\">Wasu Media</a>Many media stocks rose by about 10 times. But in just one year after the bubble burst in 2015, these stocks all fell by more than 50%. Since mid-2015, the original leading stocks such as Huayi Brothers and Baina Qiancheng have fallen by more than 90%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32db6c15c7706df6630577ae58859e0d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"992\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This scene also seems familiar. In the bull market from 2005 to 2007, due to factors such as the concept of the Olympic Games, large-cap stocks with Chinese prefix were sought after by investors. However, after the bubble burst, the Chinese prefix sector became the hardest hit area for the decline. Such as Chinese ships,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACH\">Aluminum of China</a>The decline of other companies in 2018 exceeded 80%, and the stock prices of these companies are still far from their original highs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0584e8c7575e87abd7fedeae90911d5b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Don't Let Hot Stocks Become Wealth Meat Grinders</b></p><p>Although a few popular stocks have the ability to satisfy the market for a long time, most popular stocks will eventually become featureless common stocks, suffering from the double kill of declining valuation and performance, and becoming the meat grinder of wealth. The P/E of a popular company is usually high, and only when its earnings keep growing at a high rate in the future can it maintain the high stock price that investors paid for it in the past.</p><p>As John Neff, who has been at the helm of the Windsor Fund for 30 years, said, some trend investors like to pin their hopes on high-growth companies, but the performance decline of such companies in any quarter is enough to devastate the market. Even if their performance is only one step away from the expected target, and it is conceivable that the final corporate profits will fluctuate greatly, the market will still not give any forgiveness.</p><p>\"High P/E stocks are very fragile. Once the expectation of high growth rate is missed, the market's view of the company will be a thousand miles wrong. No matter how much the actual difference is, this uncertainty alone is enough to hit the stock price hard,\" Johann Neff once said.</p><p>Under high expectations, investors are also demanding. Once the performance growth of well-known growth stocks is lower than market expectations, investors will speculate that the company's high growth is no longer available, and the direct consequence of changes in investor sentiment is the P/E plunge of popular stocks. Even if the company's earnings per share remain unchanged, if P/E plunges from 40 times to 10 times, the stock price will plummet by 70%.</p><p>It is worth noting that the profit model is not a particularly good hot industry. If the homogeneity is strong and the competition is mainly won by price, the industry will face two major consequences: difficulty in improving profit margins and returning valuations after peaking. If investors catch up with higher valuations, they may face greater debubble risks.</p><p>As in the 1960s,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XRX\">Xerox</a>The company's stock was very hot. At that time, the photocopying industry was a fabulous industry, and \"Xerox\" became synonymous with photocopying, but with Japan<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAJ\">Canon</a>After entering the photocopying industry, fierce competition and the failure of diversification caused Xerox's share price to fall by 84%.</p><p>\"If there is one stock I avoid buying, it must be the hottest stock in the hottest industry. This kind of stock is widely watched. Every investor will hear people talk about this kind of stock in the car or train on the way to and from work. The average person tends to buy this kind of stock because of this strong social pressure.\" Peter Lynch once said that hot stocks rise fast, always rising far beyond the value estimated by any valuation method, but because only investors' wishful thinking is supporting the rapid rise of stock prices, while the substance of company fundamentals is as thin as air, hot stocks fall as fast as they rise.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41a3265725dba67c0660b26a189585aa","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124597083","content_text":"本周，股神巴菲特两度出售比亚迪H股的消息，引发市场高度关注。在炮声隆隆中买进，在号角吹响时卖出，这正是股神对交易性投资机会的买卖原则。普通投资者容易被热门股票不断上升的股价蒙住双眼，但热门行业的热门股票往往是投资者惨痛亏损的来源。热门股票往往估值昂贵，估值本身包含着极高的成长预期，一旦事实与预期不符，则估值迅速下滑。在泡沫破裂后，很多热门股票的股价往往不足高峰时期的零头。在2013年至2015年A股那波大牛市中，传媒行业当属最热门的股票，但泡沫破裂后不到一年的时间中，多只传媒股跌幅近70%，而从2015年市值顶峰至今，当时炙手可热的传媒龙头股跌幅更是近90%；同样，在2005年至2007年那波大牛市中，中字头的股票备受追捧，如中国船舶一度达到每股300元，但2008年该股股价跌去了80%，如今快15年过去了，中国船舶的股价依然在26元徘徊。虽然也有极少数热门股可以穿越牛熊，如亚马逊、沃尔玛、贵州茅台、腾讯控股等公司也都曾是热门股，但是投资者如果以过高的估值追逐热门股，不得不做好长时间去泡沫的心理准备。追逐热门股或是投资“黑洞”“只要坚决不购买市盈率特别高的股票，就会让你避免巨大痛苦与巨大的投资亏损。除了极少数例外情况，特别高的市盈率是股价上涨的障碍，正如特别重的马鞍是赛马奔跑的障碍一样。”正如传奇基金经理彼得林奇所说的，追逐热门股是投资者亏损的主要来源。在2013至2015年那波牛市中，传媒概念一飞冲天，但受到诱惑的投资者都付出了惨重代价。距离2015年沪指触及5178点后的一年时间中，多只传媒龙头股跌幅超过60%。迄今为止，7年的时间过去了，部分个股的股价仅剩下当初高点时的一折左右。传媒股在2015年那波牛市爆发时，也符合高成长的概念。如华谊兄弟在2012年至2015年的三年净利润年复合增长率高达70%，东方明珠2012年至2015年的净利润年复合增长率高达80%；百纳千成2012年至2015年的净利润年复合增长率也达到30%。传媒行业的高成长性受到了市场的追捧。在2012年至2015年期间，华谊兄弟、百纳千成、浙文互联、华数传媒等多只传媒个股涨幅约为10倍。但在2015年泡沫破裂后短短一年的时间中，这些个股跌幅均超过50%。自2015年中期以来，当初的龙头股如华谊兄弟和百纳千成更是跌幅超过90%。这一幕也似曾相识。在2005到2007年的那波牛市中，由于奥运概念等因素，中字头的大盘股受到投资者追捧，但在泡沫破裂后，中字头板块成为下跌的重灾区。如中国船舶、中国铝业等公司在2018年的跌幅均超过80%，这些公司的股价至今距离当初高点仍然有很大的距离。别让热门股票成为财富绞肉机尽管少数热门个股长期具有令市场满意的成长能力，但大多数热门股终将沦为毫无特色的普通股，遭遇估值与业绩下降的双杀，成为财富的绞肉机。热门公司的市盈率通常很高，只有当未来它的收益保持高增长速度，才能维持投资者过去为其支付的高股价。正如执掌温莎基金长达30年的约翰·聂夫所说，一些趋势投资者喜欢把希望寄托在高增长率的公司上，但这类公司的股票在任何季度发生业绩滑坡都足以令市场悲痛欲绝。即使它们的业绩与预期目标只有一步之遥，并且可以设想最终的企业利润还会有很大的浮动，市场依然不会给予任何宽恕。“高市盈率股票是很脆弱的，高增长率预期一旦失之毫厘，市场对公司的看法就会谬以千里。不管实际相差多少，光是这种不确定性就足以让股价重创。”约翰·聂夫曾如是说。在高预期之下，投资者也是苛刻的。一旦知名成长股的业绩成长性低于市场预期，投资者则会推测该公司的高成长性不再，投资者情绪变化的直接后果便是热门股的市盈率高台跳水。即使该公司的每股收益保持不变，如果市盈率从40倍跳水至10倍，那么股价也会惨跌70%。值得关注的是，盈利模式不是特别好的热门行业，如果同质性很强，竞争主要以价格取胜，该行业见顶后将面临利润率难以提升和估值回归两大后果，投资者如果以较高的估值追入，可能面临较大去泡沫风险。就如在20世纪60年代，施乐公司的股票非常热门，那时复印行业是一个神话般的行业，而 “施乐”成了复印的代名词，但是随着日本佳能等进入了复印行业，激烈的竞争加上多元化的失败，施乐的股价下跌了84%。“如果说有一种股票我避而不买的话，那它一定是最热门行业中的最热门股票，这种股票受到大家的广泛关注，每个投资者都在上下班途中的汽车上或火车上会听到人们谈论这种股票，一般人往往由于禁不住这种强大的社会压力就买入这种股票。”彼得林奇曾表示，热门股票上涨得很快，总会上涨到远远超过任何估值方法能够估计出来的价值，但由于支撑股价快速上涨的只有投资者一厢情愿的期望，而公司基本面的实质性内容却像空气一样稀薄，所以热门股跌下去和涨上来的速度一样快。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1102,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9995904432,"gmtCreate":1661390264928,"gmtModify":1676536509943,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090574021972690","idStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9995904432","repostId":"1148165377","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1148165377","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1661389650,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148165377?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-25 09:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"HKEx cancels early trading as Typhoon Signal No. 8 remains valid","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148165377","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月25日讯，港交所取消早盘交易，因八号风球信号依然有效。包括香港与内地的股市联通交易和衍生品市场。如果到上午9时八号信号仍然有效，香港交易所将取消所有市场的早市交易。图注：港股在8号以上台风信号时的","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On August 25th, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange canceled early trading because the No.8 typhoon signal was still valid. Including the stock market connectivity trading and derivatives market between Hong Kong and the mainland. If the signal No.8 is still valid by 9: 00 a.m., the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will cancel the morning trading in all markets.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e7af9c0eabe0baeb5eef441389cdd80\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Note: Trading rules for Hong Kong stocks when the typhoon signal is above No. 8</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>HKEx cancels early trading as Typhoon Signal No. 8 remains valid</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHKEx cancels early trading as Typhoon Signal No. 8 remains valid\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-08-25 09:07</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On August 25th, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange canceled early trading because the No.8 typhoon signal was still valid. Including the stock market connectivity trading and derivatives market between Hong Kong and the mainland. If the signal No.8 is still valid by 9: 00 a.m., the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will cancel the morning trading in all markets.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e7af9c0eabe0baeb5eef441389cdd80\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Note: Trading rules for Hong Kong stocks when the typhoon signal is above No. 8</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1244793084c6388467f46fc7c39784b","relate_stocks":{"HSCEI":"国企指数","HSI":"恒生指数","HSCCI":"红筹指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148165377","content_text":"8月25日讯，港交所取消早盘交易，因八号风球信号依然有效。包括香港与内地的股市联通交易和衍生品市场。如果到上午9时八号信号仍然有效，香港交易所将取消所有市场的早市交易。图注：港股在8号以上台风信号时的交易规则","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSCEI":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":963,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9996184531,"gmtCreate":1661132789324,"gmtModify":1676536458638,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090574021972690","idStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9996184531","repostId":"1142473522","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142473522","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1661123297,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142473522?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-22 07:08","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"This week's preview | Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting is coming! Tesla Stock Split Three","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142473522","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"本周（8.22-8.26）重磅财经事件：经济数据方面，中国8月LPR，以及美国Markit制造PMI、新屋销售年化总数、耐用品订单、初请数据、PCE通胀数据等将重磅出炉；事件方面，被视作各国央行传递货","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Major financial events this week (8.22-8.26):</p><p><b>As for economic data,</b>China's August LPR, as well as the US Markit manufacturing PMI, annualized total new home sales, durable goods orders, initial claims data, PCE inflation data, etc. will be released;<b>In terms of events,</b>The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, which is regarded as an important stage for central banks to transmit monetary policy signals, is about to be held. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech at this annual meeting to discuss the economic outlook. The content of his speech may herald the direction of U.S. borrowing costs and determine the victory or defeat of the bets that U.S. financial markets have been betting on for some time. In addition, Tesla will conduct a three-for-one split of its common stock after the market closes on August 24.<b>In terms of financial reports,</b>There are still many well-known companies that will disclose their performance, including Meituan, Kuaishou, JD.com, New Oriental Online, XPeng Motor, as well as companies such as Nvidia, Zoom, Salesforce, Dollar Tree, Dole, and Macy's.<b>In terms of new shares,</b>China CDFG and Suxin Services will go public in Hong Kong.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/312ae051b62b42d026fcb863a4435c8e\" tg-width=\"2044\" tg-height=\"1448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Keywords for Monday, August 22: LPR market quotation interest rate, Zoom financial report</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d591e9e030b9c39dcde02a27c8635f5\" tg-width=\"1354\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On Monday, the market mainly focused on<b>Quoted Market Rate (LPR) for 1-year and more than 5-year loans.</b></p><p>On August 15, the central bank simultaneously lowered the two major policy interest rates of MLF and 7-day reverse repurchase by 10BP to 2.75% and 2.0% respectively. Everbright Securities said that in August, the decline of LPR over 5 years may be more than 10bp, while the funding interest rate is expected to remain low. CITIC Securities also said that the LPR is more likely to be lowered asymmetrically after the interest rate cut, and it is expected that the 5-year LPR will be lowered by at least 10bp this month. In terms of financial reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom Video Communication</a><b>The earnings report will be announced after the U.S. stock market closes.</b></p><p>Earlier, Citi analyst Tyler Radke downgraded Zoom from neutral to sell with a price target of $91. Radke believes Zoom faces new obstacles to sustaining growth, including increased competition from Microsoft Teams and macro-related weakness hitting small and medium-sized businesses. He believes increased churn among SMEs and online users, as well as increased competition from businesses, will offset the benefits of new products and drive estimates below consensus. Year-to-date, Zoom's stock price has nearly halved.<b>Keywords for Tuesday, August 23: U.S. August Markit PMI, XPeng Motor/Keike/Kuaishou/JD.com/Macy's and other financial reports</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a577bc666f309bbfa3be57097d27c23c\" tg-width=\"1359\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Tuesday, the United States will announce<b>Markit Manufacturing PMI, Total New Home Sales Annualized</b>And other data.</p><p>In terms of financial reports, Hong Kong stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">XPeng Motor-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02423\">Shell-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">Kuaishou-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02318\">China Ping An</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02020\">ANTA Sports</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">Jingdong Group-SW</a>，</b>And US stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JWN\">Nordstrom</a></b>(after hours),<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/M\">Macy's</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">BOSS Direct Recruitment</a></b>Wait for financial reports to be announced.</p><p><b>Kuaishou:</b>According to Bank of America Securities, Kuaishou's revenue in the second quarter of this year will reach 20.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%, of which online advertising revenue will increase by 9% to 10.8 billion yuan, and the performance of e-commerce business and live broadcast business will remain stable. (GAAP), is expected to turn losses into profits in 2024. In addition, thanks to the improvement of matching accuracy and the optimization of content supply, Orient Securities expects Kuaishou DAU to increase by 18% year-on-year to 346 million in 2Q22, and the per capita daily duration to increase by 20% year-on-year to 128 minutes, which is the same month-on-month (not weak in the off-season).<b>Public domain e-commerce is expected to drive the further growth of the company's e-commerce scale and release higher commercial advertising value, which is expected to gradually reflect in the second half of the year</b>, it is estimated that 2Q22 Kuaishou e-commerce GMV will increase by 25% year-on-year to 181.7 billion yuan.<b>JD.com:</b>Guotai Junan pointed out that the impact of the Q2 epidemic had an impact on both JD.com's demand and contract fulfillment. However, after entering June, as the situation improved, compensatory consumption and 618 promotion drive were significantly restored.<b>It is expected that JD.com's Q2 revenue growth rate will slow down significantly but maintain positive growth, benefiting from improved efficiency and focus on profit margins and cash flow, and profit margins are expected to remain stable.</b>In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic, the performance expense ratio may increase, and it is expected that the performance expense ratio will increase to 6.8% in Q2 (6.5% in 22Q1); The sales expense ratio is mainly related to the pace of new business subsidies. In the environment of lean growth and strategic contraction, subsidies and new business launches are not cost-effective. Therefore, it is expected that JD.com's Q2 marketing expense ratio will further drop to 3.5% (22Q1 is 3.6%).<b>Keywords for Wednesday, August 24: Tesla split three, U.S. durable goods orders in July, Smol International/Country Garden Services/Salesforce/Nvidia earnings report</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1acdd29200bbf92b320368d47958589\" tg-width=\"1362\" tg-height=\"747\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Wednesday, in terms of data,<b>U.S. durable goods orders for July, U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week, U.S. existing home contract sales data</b>Will be announced one after another<b>。</b></p><p>Last week, EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell sharply. EIA crude oil inventory changes in the United States for the week ending August 12 actually reported a decrease of 7.056 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 275,000 barrels, and an increase of 5.458 million barrels in the previous value. The upcoming data of API and EIA crude oil inventory changes in the United States for the week ending August 19 is expected to continue to record declines. On the event,<b>Tesla will conduct a three-for-one split of common stock of record as of August 17 after the market closes on August 24.</b></p><p>Previously, Tesla announced that it would promote a 1-for-3 stock split plan and will distribute Dividend to shareholders after the market closes on August 24. Each common share held by shareholders registered on August 17, 2022 will receive 2 additional common shares after the spin-off after the market closes on August 24.<b>Trading will begin on August 25 in a stock split-adjusted fashion.</b>Tesla's last stock split dates back to 2020 (1 to 5). At that time, Tesla's stock price was only US $1,300. With the announcement of the stock split, its stock price was directly pushed up to an all-time high of US $2,000 per share (up about 60% from the announcement date to the execution date), and Tesla The market value has also soared since then, and reached a trillion market value a year later. In terms of financial reports, Hong Kong stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06969\">Smol International</a><b>、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06098\">Country Garden Services</a><b>、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0030K\">Wuling Motors</a><b>、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09633\">Nongfu Spring</a>Will report earnings. In addition, US stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">SAIFTS</a><b>、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a><b>、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a>Both announced financial reports after hours.</p><p><b>NVIDIA:</b>After the market closed on the 24th, Nvidia, which had previously predicted thunderstorms, will also produce a complete financial report. On August 8, Nvidia issued a second-quarter financial report warning before the U.S. stock market opened. According to preliminary data released by Nvidia for the second quarter, the company's quarterly revenue was US $6.7 billion, and a substantial miss the market expectation was US $8.1 billion, a decrease of 19% from the previous quarter. Game business revenue has a significant miss the market expectation, with quarterly revenue of US $2.04 billion, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 44% and a year-on-year decrease of 33%. Data center revenue was $3.81 billion, up 1% sequentially and 61% year-over-year. The company blamed its poor performance on the sluggish game business and falling demand in the PC market. In addition, some analysts pointed out that the plunge in demand for graphics cards caused by the collapse of the currency circle also had a considerable impact on Nvidia. In terms of new shares,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02152\">Suxin Services</a>Will be listed in Hong Kong.</p><p>Suxin Services is a property management service provider providing urban services for public infrastructure and basic property management services and value-added services for commercial properties and residential communities. As of April 30, 2022, the company has contracted to provide public construction project management services, basic commercial property management services and basic residential property management services for 78 projects in China, with a total contracted construction area of 8.0 million square meters, of which, 77 The total construction area under management of each project exceeds 6.8 million square meters. In terms of finance, from fiscal year 2019 to fiscal year 2021, the company's revenue was 436 million yuan, 437 million yuan, and 462 million yuan respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.95%. In 2021 and the first four months of 2022, revenue will be 153 million yuan and 162 million yuan, respectively.<b>Keywords for Thursday, August 25: U.S. initial application data, China Duty Free listing, PetroChina/Dollar Tree/American Dole Company financial report</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e90e9a384ee81e5bd36ed3a82d3b9448\" tg-width=\"1373\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c0917ec49e2c227fcdb57a06f6cb3ed\" tg-width=\"1326\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Thursday, investors can pay attention<b>Revised annualized quarterly rate of U.S. real GDP in the second quarter, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week</b>And other data.</p><p>In terms of events,<b>The European Central Bank will release the minutes of its July monetary policy meeting.</b></p><p>In terms of financial reports, Hong Kong stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00857\">PetroChina shares</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09896\">MINISO</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00020\">SenseTime-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">Pop Mart</a>，</b>And US stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLTR\">Dollar Tree Inc</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DG\">American Dole Company</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BURL\">Burlington Department Store</a></b>Will report earnings.</p><p><b>Dollar Tree & Burlington Department Store:</b>In the first quarter, the performance of large supermarket chains such as Wal-Mart and Target declined and the sector collapsed, while cheap discount stores such as Dole Company and Dollar Tree successfully escaped the thunderstorm of performance thanks to rising consumer demand. Goldman Sachs analysts say discount retail is defensive and attractive amid high inflation and pressure on consumer disposable income. The bank is very optimistic about low-end retailers in the context of U.S. consumption downgrades.<b>In terms of new shares,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01880\">China CDFG</a></b>Will be listed in Hong Kong.</p><p>On August 19, China CDFG issued an announcement stating that the final price of the company's H share issuance was HK $158 per share. The total amount of funds raised by CDFG this time is expected to reach HK $16.236 billion, which is expected to surpass Tianqi Lithium and become the largest IPO in Hong Kong stocks this year. Affected by COVID-19 pandemic, as the world's largest travel retail operator and the only retail operator in China covering all duty-free sales channels, CDFG's operating income and net profit attributable to its parent company both declined in the first half of the year. However, thanks to favorable domestic tax-free policies and high-quality market resources, CDFG stated that it can still maintain its leading position in the travel retail industry.<b>Keywords for Friday, August 26: Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting & Powell's speech, US PCE inflation data, New Oriental Online/Meituan/JinkoSolar financial report</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1b63ca84b36b312db84ca448c36afa1\" tg-width=\"1363\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b1c20091662577db8e7a0a22d20f6c2\" tg-width=\"1375\" tg-height=\"243\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Friday will be a very crucial day this week.</p><p>As for economic data,<b>U.S. July Core PCE Price Index, University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index</b>Wait will be announced one after another.</p><p>Previously, the June PCE price index announced by the United States was 6.8% year-on-year, expected to be 6.8%, and the previous value was 6.3%; The core PCE price index was 4.8% year-on-year, expected to be 4.70%, and the previous value was 4.70%. The core PCE price index increased by 6.8% year-on-year in June, setting another 40-year high, with an increase larger than the previous two months.<b>In terms of events,</b>As the game between the market and the Federal Reserve becomes increasingly fierce, the annual<b>The annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole hit hard on August 26.</b></p><p>Since the financial crisis, this meeting has been regarded by the outside world as an important stage for central banks to transmit monetary policy signals, and it is also known as a barometer of monetary policy inflection points. Although the specific schedule has not yet been announced, the highlight of the annual meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech, has been confirmed to start at 10 a.m. Eastern Time on Friday. On the eve of his speech, the PCE inflation data for July will also be released, and the market will continue to look for signs that inflation has peaked. Mike Feroli, chief economist of JPMorgan Chase, expressed his view: From now until the September FOMC meeting, due to the base effect of energy prices, the U.S. CPI will continue to decline, and employment data may also weaken. Therefore, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will issue a 50 basis point rate hike in September and take a more moderate stance for the rest of the year. The annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole may provide more support for the Fed to turn dovish.<b>Related reading:</b>At the critical moment, the Jackson Hole annual meeting of the Federal Reserve is coming. Will the market be surprised or frightened this time?</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b>Hong Kong Stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01797\">New oriental online</a></b>And US stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JKS\">JinkoSolar</a></b>Earnings will be released on the same day<b>。</b></p><p><b>Meituan:</b>CICC believes that the recovery of Meituan's food delivery and wine travel in June is better than expected. It predicts that the total revenue in the second quarter will increase by 13% year-on-year to 49.5 billion yuan, which is 3% better than market expectations, and the adjusted net loss will be 1.12 billion yuan. Looking at it separately, the recovery of take-out orders in June was better than expected, and the year-on-year growth forecast of take-out orders and revenue in the second quarter was raised to 3% and 13%. During the period, the average profit forecast for takeaway orders was raised from RMB 0.85 to RMB 0.93, resulting in an increase in volume and price. On the other hand, due to the better-than-expected performance of hotel room nights in June, the in-store hotel and travel revenue in the second quarter dropped to 20% year-on-year, and the profit was raised accordingly.</body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This week's preview | Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting is coming! Tesla Stock Split Three</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis week's preview | Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting is coming! Tesla Stock Split Three\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-08-22 07:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Major financial events this week (8.22-8.26):</p><p><b>As for economic data,</b>China's August LPR, as well as the US Markit manufacturing PMI, annualized total new home sales, durable goods orders, initial claims data, PCE inflation data, etc. will be released;<b>In terms of events,</b>The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, which is regarded as an important stage for central banks to transmit monetary policy signals, is about to be held. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech at this annual meeting to discuss the economic outlook. The content of his speech may herald the direction of U.S. borrowing costs and determine the victory or defeat of the bets that U.S. financial markets have been betting on for some time. In addition, Tesla will conduct a three-for-one split of its common stock after the market closes on August 24.<b>In terms of financial reports,</b>There are still many well-known companies that will disclose their performance, including Meituan, Kuaishou, JD.com, New Oriental Online, XPeng Motor, as well as companies such as Nvidia, Zoom, Salesforce, Dollar Tree, Dole, and Macy's.<b>In terms of new shares,</b>China CDFG and Suxin Services will go public in Hong Kong.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/312ae051b62b42d026fcb863a4435c8e\" tg-width=\"2044\" tg-height=\"1448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Keywords for Monday, August 22: LPR market quotation interest rate, Zoom financial report</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d591e9e030b9c39dcde02a27c8635f5\" tg-width=\"1354\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On Monday, the market mainly focused on<b>Quoted Market Rate (LPR) for 1-year and more than 5-year loans.</b></p><p>On August 15, the central bank simultaneously lowered the two major policy interest rates of MLF and 7-day reverse repurchase by 10BP to 2.75% and 2.0% respectively. Everbright Securities said that in August, the decline of LPR over 5 years may be more than 10bp, while the funding interest rate is expected to remain low. CITIC Securities also said that the LPR is more likely to be lowered asymmetrically after the interest rate cut, and it is expected that the 5-year LPR will be lowered by at least 10bp this month. In terms of financial reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom Video Communication</a><b>The earnings report will be announced after the U.S. stock market closes.</b></p><p>Earlier, Citi analyst Tyler Radke downgraded Zoom from neutral to sell with a price target of $91. Radke believes Zoom faces new obstacles to sustaining growth, including increased competition from Microsoft Teams and macro-related weakness hitting small and medium-sized businesses. He believes increased churn among SMEs and online users, as well as increased competition from businesses, will offset the benefits of new products and drive estimates below consensus. Year-to-date, Zoom's stock price has nearly halved.<b>Keywords for Tuesday, August 23: U.S. August Markit PMI, XPeng Motor/Keike/Kuaishou/JD.com/Macy's and other financial reports</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a577bc666f309bbfa3be57097d27c23c\" tg-width=\"1359\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Tuesday, the United States will announce<b>Markit Manufacturing PMI, Total New Home Sales Annualized</b>And other data.</p><p>In terms of financial reports, Hong Kong stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">XPeng Motor-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02423\">Shell-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">Kuaishou-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02318\">China Ping An</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02020\">ANTA Sports</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">Jingdong Group-SW</a>，</b>And US stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JWN\">Nordstrom</a></b>(after hours),<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/M\">Macy's</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">BOSS Direct Recruitment</a></b>Wait for financial reports to be announced.</p><p><b>Kuaishou:</b>According to Bank of America Securities, Kuaishou's revenue in the second quarter of this year will reach 20.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%, of which online advertising revenue will increase by 9% to 10.8 billion yuan, and the performance of e-commerce business and live broadcast business will remain stable. (GAAP), is expected to turn losses into profits in 2024. In addition, thanks to the improvement of matching accuracy and the optimization of content supply, Orient Securities expects Kuaishou DAU to increase by 18% year-on-year to 346 million in 2Q22, and the per capita daily duration to increase by 20% year-on-year to 128 minutes, which is the same month-on-month (not weak in the off-season).<b>Public domain e-commerce is expected to drive the further growth of the company's e-commerce scale and release higher commercial advertising value, which is expected to gradually reflect in the second half of the year</b>, it is estimated that 2Q22 Kuaishou e-commerce GMV will increase by 25% year-on-year to 181.7 billion yuan.<b>JD.com:</b>Guotai Junan pointed out that the impact of the Q2 epidemic had an impact on both JD.com's demand and contract fulfillment. However, after entering June, as the situation improved, compensatory consumption and 618 promotion drive were significantly restored.<b>It is expected that JD.com's Q2 revenue growth rate will slow down significantly but maintain positive growth, benefiting from improved efficiency and focus on profit margins and cash flow, and profit margins are expected to remain stable.</b>In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic, the performance expense ratio may increase, and it is expected that the performance expense ratio will increase to 6.8% in Q2 (6.5% in 22Q1); The sales expense ratio is mainly related to the pace of new business subsidies. In the environment of lean growth and strategic contraction, subsidies and new business launches are not cost-effective. Therefore, it is expected that JD.com's Q2 marketing expense ratio will further drop to 3.5% (22Q1 is 3.6%).<b>Keywords for Wednesday, August 24: Tesla split three, U.S. durable goods orders in July, Smol International/Country Garden Services/Salesforce/Nvidia earnings report</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1acdd29200bbf92b320368d47958589\" tg-width=\"1362\" tg-height=\"747\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Wednesday, in terms of data,<b>U.S. durable goods orders for July, U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week, U.S. existing home contract sales data</b>Will be announced one after another<b>。</b></p><p>Last week, EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell sharply. EIA crude oil inventory changes in the United States for the week ending August 12 actually reported a decrease of 7.056 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 275,000 barrels, and an increase of 5.458 million barrels in the previous value. The upcoming data of API and EIA crude oil inventory changes in the United States for the week ending August 19 is expected to continue to record declines. On the event,<b>Tesla will conduct a three-for-one split of common stock of record as of August 17 after the market closes on August 24.</b></p><p>Previously, Tesla announced that it would promote a 1-for-3 stock split plan and will distribute Dividend to shareholders after the market closes on August 24. Each common share held by shareholders registered on August 17, 2022 will receive 2 additional common shares after the spin-off after the market closes on August 24.<b>Trading will begin on August 25 in a stock split-adjusted fashion.</b>Tesla's last stock split dates back to 2020 (1 to 5). At that time, Tesla's stock price was only US $1,300. With the announcement of the stock split, its stock price was directly pushed up to an all-time high of US $2,000 per share (up about 60% from the announcement date to the execution date), and Tesla The market value has also soared since then, and reached a trillion market value a year later. In terms of financial reports, Hong Kong stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06969\">Smol International</a><b>、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06098\">Country Garden Services</a><b>、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0030K\">Wuling Motors</a><b>、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09633\">Nongfu Spring</a>Will report earnings. In addition, US stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">SAIFTS</a><b>、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a><b>、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a>Both announced financial reports after hours.</p><p><b>NVIDIA:</b>After the market closed on the 24th, Nvidia, which had previously predicted thunderstorms, will also produce a complete financial report. On August 8, Nvidia issued a second-quarter financial report warning before the U.S. stock market opened. According to preliminary data released by Nvidia for the second quarter, the company's quarterly revenue was US $6.7 billion, and a substantial miss the market expectation was US $8.1 billion, a decrease of 19% from the previous quarter. Game business revenue has a significant miss the market expectation, with quarterly revenue of US $2.04 billion, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 44% and a year-on-year decrease of 33%. Data center revenue was $3.81 billion, up 1% sequentially and 61% year-over-year. The company blamed its poor performance on the sluggish game business and falling demand in the PC market. In addition, some analysts pointed out that the plunge in demand for graphics cards caused by the collapse of the currency circle also had a considerable impact on Nvidia. In terms of new shares,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02152\">Suxin Services</a>Will be listed in Hong Kong.</p><p>Suxin Services is a property management service provider providing urban services for public infrastructure and basic property management services and value-added services for commercial properties and residential communities. As of April 30, 2022, the company has contracted to provide public construction project management services, basic commercial property management services and basic residential property management services for 78 projects in China, with a total contracted construction area of 8.0 million square meters, of which, 77 The total construction area under management of each project exceeds 6.8 million square meters. In terms of finance, from fiscal year 2019 to fiscal year 2021, the company's revenue was 436 million yuan, 437 million yuan, and 462 million yuan respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.95%. In 2021 and the first four months of 2022, revenue will be 153 million yuan and 162 million yuan, respectively.<b>Keywords for Thursday, August 25: U.S. initial application data, China Duty Free listing, PetroChina/Dollar Tree/American Dole Company financial report</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e90e9a384ee81e5bd36ed3a82d3b9448\" tg-width=\"1373\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c0917ec49e2c227fcdb57a06f6cb3ed\" tg-width=\"1326\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Thursday, investors can pay attention<b>Revised annualized quarterly rate of U.S. real GDP in the second quarter, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week</b>And other data.</p><p>In terms of events,<b>The European Central Bank will release the minutes of its July monetary policy meeting.</b></p><p>In terms of financial reports, Hong Kong stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00857\">PetroChina shares</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09896\">MINISO</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00020\">SenseTime-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">Pop Mart</a>，</b>And US stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLTR\">Dollar Tree Inc</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DG\">American Dole Company</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BURL\">Burlington Department Store</a></b>Will report earnings.</p><p><b>Dollar Tree & Burlington Department Store:</b>In the first quarter, the performance of large supermarket chains such as Wal-Mart and Target declined and the sector collapsed, while cheap discount stores such as Dole Company and Dollar Tree successfully escaped the thunderstorm of performance thanks to rising consumer demand. Goldman Sachs analysts say discount retail is defensive and attractive amid high inflation and pressure on consumer disposable income. The bank is very optimistic about low-end retailers in the context of U.S. consumption downgrades.<b>In terms of new shares,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01880\">China CDFG</a></b>Will be listed in Hong Kong.</p><p>On August 19, China CDFG issued an announcement stating that the final price of the company's H share issuance was HK $158 per share. The total amount of funds raised by CDFG this time is expected to reach HK $16.236 billion, which is expected to surpass Tianqi Lithium and become the largest IPO in Hong Kong stocks this year. Affected by COVID-19 pandemic, as the world's largest travel retail operator and the only retail operator in China covering all duty-free sales channels, CDFG's operating income and net profit attributable to its parent company both declined in the first half of the year. However, thanks to favorable domestic tax-free policies and high-quality market resources, CDFG stated that it can still maintain its leading position in the travel retail industry.<b>Keywords for Friday, August 26: Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting & Powell's speech, US PCE inflation data, New Oriental Online/Meituan/JinkoSolar financial report</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1b63ca84b36b312db84ca448c36afa1\" tg-width=\"1363\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b1c20091662577db8e7a0a22d20f6c2\" tg-width=\"1375\" tg-height=\"243\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Friday will be a very crucial day this week.</p><p>As for economic data,<b>U.S. July Core PCE Price Index, University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index</b>Wait will be announced one after another.</p><p>Previously, the June PCE price index announced by the United States was 6.8% year-on-year, expected to be 6.8%, and the previous value was 6.3%; The core PCE price index was 4.8% year-on-year, expected to be 4.70%, and the previous value was 4.70%. The core PCE price index increased by 6.8% year-on-year in June, setting another 40-year high, with an increase larger than the previous two months.<b>In terms of events,</b>As the game between the market and the Federal Reserve becomes increasingly fierce, the annual<b>The annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole hit hard on August 26.</b></p><p>Since the financial crisis, this meeting has been regarded by the outside world as an important stage for central banks to transmit monetary policy signals, and it is also known as a barometer of monetary policy inflection points. Although the specific schedule has not yet been announced, the highlight of the annual meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech, has been confirmed to start at 10 a.m. Eastern Time on Friday. On the eve of his speech, the PCE inflation data for July will also be released, and the market will continue to look for signs that inflation has peaked. Mike Feroli, chief economist of JPMorgan Chase, expressed his view: From now until the September FOMC meeting, due to the base effect of energy prices, the U.S. CPI will continue to decline, and employment data may also weaken. Therefore, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will issue a 50 basis point rate hike in September and take a more moderate stance for the rest of the year. The annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole may provide more support for the Fed to turn dovish.<b>Related reading:</b>At the critical moment, the Jackson Hole annual meeting of the Federal Reserve is coming. Will the market be surprised or frightened this time?</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b>Hong Kong Stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01797\">New oriental online</a></b>And US stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JKS\">JinkoSolar</a></b>Earnings will be released on the same day<b>。</b></p><p><b>Meituan:</b>CICC believes that the recovery of Meituan's food delivery and wine travel in June is better than expected. It predicts that the total revenue in the second quarter will increase by 13% year-on-year to 49.5 billion yuan, which is 3% better than market expectations, and the adjusted net loss will be 1.12 billion yuan. Looking at it separately, the recovery of take-out orders in June was better than expected, and the year-on-year growth forecast of take-out orders and revenue in the second quarter was raised to 3% and 13%. During the period, the average profit forecast for takeaway orders was raised from RMB 0.85 to RMB 0.93, resulting in an increase in volume and price. On the other hand, due to the better-than-expected performance of hotel room nights in June, the in-store hotel and travel revenue in the second quarter dropped to 20% year-on-year, and the profit was raised accordingly.</body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d256e82db1d71c864259845ce1d069bf","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142473522","content_text":"本周（8.22-8.26）重磅财经事件：经济数据方面，中国8月LPR，以及美国Markit制造PMI、新屋销售年化总数、耐用品订单、初请数据、PCE通胀数据等将重磅出炉；事件方面，被视作各国央行传递货币政策信号重要舞台的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会即将召开。美联储主席鲍威尔将在这次年会上发表讲话，讨论经济前景，其讲话内容可能预示着美国的借贷成本走向，并决定美国金融市场一段时间以来所押赌注的胜败。此外，特斯拉将于8月24日收盘后对其普通股进行一拆三。财报方面，依然有许多知名企业将披露业绩，包括美团、快手、京东、新东方在线、小鹏汽车，以及英伟达、Zoom、赛富时、美元树、美国达乐公司、梅西百货等公司。新股方面，中国中免、苏新服务将赴港上市。8月22日 周一关键词：LPR市场报价利率、Zoom财报周一，市场主要聚焦于1年期和5年期以上贷款市场报价利率(LPR)。8月15日，央行将MLF、7天逆回购两大政策利率同步下调10BP，分别降至2.75%、2.0%。光大证券表示，8月，5年期以上LPR的下行幅度或在10bp以上，同时资金利率有望维持低位。中信证券同样表示，LPR在降息后非对称下调的可能性较大，预计本月5年期LPR至少下调10bp。财报方面，Zoom视频通讯将于美股盘后公布财报。早前，花旗分析师Tyler Radke将Zoom的评级从中性下调至卖出，目标价为91美元。Radke认为Zoom维持增长面临新的障碍，包括来自微软Teams的竞争加剧，以及宏观相关的疲软对中小型企业的冲击。他认为中小企业和在线用户的流失率增加，以及企业的竞争加剧，将抵消新产品的优势，并推动估计低于共识。年初至今，Zoom股价接近腰斩。8月23 周二关键词：美国8月Markit PMI、小鹏汽车/贝壳/快手/京东/梅西百货等财报周二，美国将公布Markit制造PMI、新屋销售年化总数等数据。财报方面，港股小鹏汽车-W、贝壳-W、快手-W、中国平安、安踏体育、京东集团-SW，以及美股诺德斯特龙（盘后）、梅西百货、BOSS直聘等将公布财报。快手：据美银证券预计，快手今年二季度收入将达到208亿元，同比增9%，其中线上广告收入增长9%至108亿元，电商业务及直播业务表现保持稳定，估计按照通用会计准则（GAAP），可望于2024年扭亏为盈。另外，得益于匹配精准度提升结合内容供给优化，东方证券预计2Q22快手DAU同比增长18%至3.46亿，人均日时长同比增长20%至128min，环比持平（淡季不淡）。公域电商有望驱动公司电商规模的进一步增长，并释放更高的商业化广告价值，下半年有望逐步体现，预计2Q22快手电商GMV同比增长25%至1817亿元。京东：国泰君安指出，Q2疫情冲击下对京东需求和履约端均构成影响，但进入6月后，随着情况改善，补偿式消费和618促销驱动明显修复，预计京东Q2收入增速明显放缓但维持正增长，受益效率提升和对利润率及现金流的关注，预计利润率维持稳健。此外，受疫情影响，履约费用率或有所提升，预计Q2履约费用率提升至 6.8%（22Q1 为 6.5%）；销售费用率主要与新业务补贴拉新节奏相关，在精益增长与战略收缩的大环境下，补贴拉新与新业务投放性价比并不高，因此预计京东Q2营销费用率将进一步下降至3.5%（22Q1 为 3.6%）。8月24日 周三关键词：特斯拉一拆三、美国7月耐用品订单、思摩尔国际/碧桂园服务/赛富时/英伟达财报周三，数据方面，美国7月耐用品订单、美国当周EIA原油库存、美国成屋签约销售数据等将陆续公布。上周，EIA原油库存意外大幅度下降。美国截至8月12日当周EIA原油库存变动实际公布减少705.60万桶，预期减少27.5万桶，前值增加545.8万桶。美国即将公布的截至8月19日当周API和EIA原油库存变动数据，有望继续录得下降。事件方面，特斯拉将于8月24日收盘后对截至8月17日登记在册的普通股进行一拆三。此前，特斯拉宣布将推进1拆3的股票拆分计划，并将于8月24日收盘后向各位股东派发股息。2022年8月17日登记在册的股东，所持有的每股普通股，在8月24日收盘后都将收到分拆后增加的2股普通股，交易将在8月25日以股票拆股调整后的方式开始。特斯拉上一次拆股要追溯到2020年（1比5）。当时，特斯拉的股价还只有1300美元，随着拆股公告发布，其股价直接被推高至每股2000美元的历史至高点（公告日到执行日涨约60%），而且特斯拉市值也是从那时开始了飙升，并在一年后达到万亿市值。财报方面，港股思摩尔国际、碧桂园服务、五菱汽车、农夫山泉将公布财报。此外，美股赛富时、英伟达、Snowflake均于盘后公布财报。英伟达：24日盘后，此前已经预告暴雷的英伟达也将拿出完整财报。8月8日，英伟达在美股盘前发布了二季度财报「预警」。据英伟达公布第二季度初步数据显示：公司季度营收为67亿美元，大幅不及市场预期为81亿美元，环比下降19%。游戏业务收入大幅不及市场预期，季度营收20.4亿美元，环比下降44%，同比下降33%。数据中心收入为38.1亿美元，环比增长1%，同比增长61%。该公司将其业绩不佳归咎于游戏业务萎靡和PC市场需求下跌，另外，有分析指出币圈崩盘导致的显卡需求暴跌也给英伟达带来不小的冲击。新股方面，苏新服务将赴港上市。苏新服务是一家物业管理服务提供商，为公共基础设施提供城市服务以及为商业物业及住宅小区提供基本物业管理服务及增值服务。截至2022年4月30日，公司已在中国订约为78个项目提供公建项目管理服务、基本商业物业管理服务及基本住宅物业管理服务，总合约建筑面积为8.0百万平方米，其中， 77个项目的在管总建筑面积超过6.8百万平方米。财务方面，2019财年至2021财年，公司的收入分别为4.36亿元、4.37亿元、4.62亿元人民币，年度复合增长率为2.95%。2021年及2022年前四个月，收入分别为1.53亿元及1.62亿元人民币。8月25日 周四关键词：美国初请数据、中国中免上市、中国石油股份/美元树/美国达乐公司财报周四，投资者可关注美国第二季度实际GDP年化季率修正值、美国当周初请失业金人数等数据。事件方面，欧洲央行将公布7月货币政策会议纪要。财报方面，港股中国石油股份、名创优品、商汤-W、泡泡玛特，以及美股美元树公司、美国达乐公司、伯灵顿百货将公布财报。美国达乐公司&美元树&伯灵顿百货：一季度，沃尔玛、塔吉特等大型连锁商超业绩下滑带崩板块，而美国达乐公司、美元树等廉价的折扣店却得益于消费需求上升，成功躲过了业绩暴雷潮。高盛分析师表示，在通胀高企、消费者可支配收入承压背景下，折扣零售业「具有防御性和吸引力」。该行非常看好美国「消费降级」背景下的低端零售商。新股方面，中国中免将赴港上市。8月19日，中国中免发布公告称，该公司H股发行的最终价格为每股158港元。本次中免募资总额预计将达162.36亿港元，有望超越天齐锂业，成为港股年内最大的IPO。受新冠疫情影响，作为全球最大的旅游零售运营商、中国唯一一家覆盖全免税销售渠道的零售运营商的中国中免在上半年营业收入、归母净利润双双下滑。但受惠于国内有利的免税政策和优质的市场资源，中免表示其仍能维持在旅游零售业的领先地位。8月26日 周五关键词：杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会&鲍威尔讲话、美国PCE通胀数据、新东方在线/美团/晶科能源财报周五，将是本周非常关键的一天。经济数据方面，美国7月核心PCE物价指数、密歇根大学消费者信心指数等将陆续公布。此前，美国公布的6月PCE物价指数同比6.8%，预期6.8%，前值6.3%；核心PCE物价指数同比4.8%，预期4.70%，前值4.70%。核心PCE物价指数在6月同比增长6.8%，再创下40年以来的新高，增幅大于前二个月。事件方面，在市场与美联储的博弈日益激烈之际，一年一度的杰克逊霍尔（Jackson Hole）全球央行年会于8月26日重磅来袭。自金融危机时期以来，这一会议已经被外界视作是各国央行传递货币政策信号的重要舞台，也被誉为货币政策拐点的晴雨表。虽然具体的日程表尚未公布，但年会重头戏、美联储主席鲍威尔的演讲已经确认在美东时间周五早上10点开始。而在他讲话前夕，7月的PCE通胀数据也将出炉，市场将继续寻觅通胀见顶的迹象。摩根大通首席经济学家迈克·费罗利表达观点称：从现在到9月FOMC会议期间，由于能源价格基数效应，美国CPI会出现持续下降，就业数据也可能走软。因而预计，美联储9月将加息50个基点，在今年剩余时间的立场也将更加温和。杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会可能会为美联储转向鸽派提供更多支持。相关阅读：关键时刻，美联储Jackson Hole年会要来了，市场这次迎来的会是惊喜还是惊吓？财报方面，港股美团-W、新东方在线及美股晶科能源财报将于当日出炉。美团：中金认为，美团6月外卖和酒旅恢复好于预期，预测二季度总收入同比增长13%至495亿元人民币，好于市场预期3%，经调整净亏损额为11.2亿元人民币。分开来看，6月外卖单量恢复好于预期，上调第2季外卖单量、收入同比增速预测至3%、13%。期内，外卖单均利润预测由0.85元人民币上调至0.93元人民币，形成量增价涨。另一方面，由于6月酒店间夜量表现或好于预期，下调第2季到店酒旅收入同比跌幅至20%，相应上调利润。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1126,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9998357996,"gmtCreate":1660951419717,"gmtModify":1676536427202,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090574021972690","idStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9998357996","repostId":"2260373492","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2260373492","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1660953025,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2260373492?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-20 07:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US STOCKS-Wall Street Ends Down As Yields Rise; Indexes Post Weekly Losses","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2260373492","media":"Reuters","summary":"* Investors await Jackson Hole conference next week* 10-year U.S. Treasury yield nears 3%* Indexes: ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>* Investors await Jackson Hole conference next week</p><p>* 10-year U.S. Treasury yield nears 3%</p><p>* Indexes: Dow down 0.9%, S&amp;P 500 down 1.3%, Nasdaq down 2%</p><p>NEW YORK, Aug 19 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Friday in a broad selloff led by megacaps as U.S. bond yields rose, with the S&amp;P 500 posting losses for the week after four straight weeks of gains.</p><p>Amazon.com, Apple and Microsoft all fell and were the biggest drags on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq. Higher rates tend to be a negative for tech and growth stocks, whose valuations rely more heavily on future cash flows.</p><p>U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the benchmark 10-year note nearly hitting 3%, after Germany reported record-high increases in monthly producer prices.</p><p>Investors have been weighing how aggressive the Federal Reserve may need to be as it raises interest rates to battle inflation.</p><p>Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said on Friday that U.S. central bank officials have &#34;a lot of time still&#34; before they need to decide how large an interest rate increase to approve at their Sept. 20-21 policy meeting.</p><p>&#34;The rise in rates around the globe and tough talk from central bankers are being used as an excuse to push stocks lower in very light volume on an August Friday session,&#34; said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 292.3 points, or 0.86%, to 33,706.74, the S&amp;P 500 lost 55.26 points, or 1.29%, to 4,228.48 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 260.13 points, or 2.01%, to 12,705.22.</p><p>All three major indexes registered losses for the week. The S&amp;P 500 fell about 1.2% and the Nasdaq slid 2.6% in their first weekly declines after four weeks of gains. The Dow lost about 0.2% for the week.</p><p>After notching its worst first half since 1970, the S&amp;P 500 has bounced some 16% from its mid-June low, fueled by stronger-than-expected corporate earnings and hopes the economy can avoid a recession even as the Fed hikes rates.</p><p>Friday&#39;s monthly options expiration should also make way for greater near-term stock market moves as options positions expire, said Brent Kochuba, founder of options-focused financial insights company SpotGamma.</p><p>The U.S. central bank needs to keep raising borrowing costs to tame decades-high inflation, a string of U.S. central bank officials said on Thursday, even as they debated how fast and how high to lift them.</p><p>The Fed has raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 225 basis points since March to fight inflation at a four decade-high.</p><p>Focus next week may be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#39;s speech on the economic outlook at the annual global central bankers&#39; conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.</p><p>Meme stock Bed Bath &amp; Beyond Inc plunged 40.5% as billionaire investor Ryan Cohen exited the struggling home goods retailer by selling his stake.</p><p>The S&amp;P banking index fell 2.1% after recent gains.</p><p>Shares of Deere &amp; Co ended slightly higher, even after it lowered its full-year profit outlook and said it has sold out of large tractors as it grapples with parts shortages and high costs.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was last at 10.01 billion shares in one of the lowest volume days of the year.</p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 6.06-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.59-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 1 new 52-week highs and 29 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 43 new highs and 93 new lows.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US STOCKS-Wall Street Ends Down As Yields Rise; Indexes Post Weekly Losses</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS STOCKS-Wall Street Ends Down As Yields Rise; Indexes Post Weekly Losses\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-08-20 07:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>* Investors await Jackson Hole conference next week</p><p>* 10-year U.S. Treasury yield nears 3%</p><p>* Indexes: Dow down 0.9%, S&amp;P 500 down 1.3%, Nasdaq down 2%</p><p>NEW YORK, Aug 19 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Friday in a broad selloff led by megacaps as U.S. bond yields rose, with the S&amp;P 500 posting losses for the week after four straight weeks of gains.</p><p>Amazon.com, Apple and Microsoft all fell and were the biggest drags on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq. Higher rates tend to be a negative for tech and growth stocks, whose valuations rely more heavily on future cash flows.</p><p>U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the benchmark 10-year note nearly hitting 3%, after Germany reported record-high increases in monthly producer prices.</p><p>Investors have been weighing how aggressive the Federal Reserve may need to be as it raises interest rates to battle inflation.</p><p>Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said on Friday that U.S. central bank officials have &#34;a lot of time still&#34; before they need to decide how large an interest rate increase to approve at their Sept. 20-21 policy meeting.</p><p>&#34;The rise in rates around the globe and tough talk from central bankers are being used as an excuse to push stocks lower in very light volume on an August Friday session,&#34; said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 292.3 points, or 0.86%, to 33,706.74, the S&amp;P 500 lost 55.26 points, or 1.29%, to 4,228.48 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 260.13 points, or 2.01%, to 12,705.22.</p><p>All three major indexes registered losses for the week. The S&amp;P 500 fell about 1.2% and the Nasdaq slid 2.6% in their first weekly declines after four weeks of gains. The Dow lost about 0.2% for the week.</p><p>After notching its worst first half since 1970, the S&amp;P 500 has bounced some 16% from its mid-June low, fueled by stronger-than-expected corporate earnings and hopes the economy can avoid a recession even as the Fed hikes rates.</p><p>Friday&#39;s monthly options expiration should also make way for greater near-term stock market moves as options positions expire, said Brent Kochuba, founder of options-focused financial insights company SpotGamma.</p><p>The U.S. central bank needs to keep raising borrowing costs to tame decades-high inflation, a string of U.S. central bank officials said on Thursday, even as they debated how fast and how high to lift them.</p><p>The Fed has raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 225 basis points since March to fight inflation at a four decade-high.</p><p>Focus next week may be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#39;s speech on the economic outlook at the annual global central bankers&#39; conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.</p><p>Meme stock Bed Bath &amp; Beyond Inc plunged 40.5% as billionaire investor Ryan Cohen exited the struggling home goods retailer by selling his stake.</p><p>The S&amp;P banking index fell 2.1% after recent gains.</p><p>Shares of Deere &amp; Co ended slightly higher, even after it lowered its full-year profit outlook and said it has sold out of large tractors as it grapples with parts shortages and high costs.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was last at 10.01 billion shares in one of the lowest volume days of the year.</p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 6.06-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.59-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 1 new 52-week highs and 29 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 43 new highs and 93 new lows.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"OEX":"标普100","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","COMP":"Compass, Inc.","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","DE":"迪尔股份有限公司","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4539":"次新股","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","BBBY":"Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4581":"高盛持仓","AAPL":"苹果","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","MSFT":"微软","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2260373492","content_text":"* Investors await Jackson Hole conference next week* 10-year U.S. Treasury yield nears 3%* Indexes: Dow down 0.9%, S&P 500 down 1.3%, Nasdaq down 2%NEW YORK, Aug 19 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Friday in a broad selloff led by megacaps as U.S. bond yields rose, with the S&P 500 posting losses for the week after four straight weeks of gains.Amazon.com, Apple and Microsoft all fell and were the biggest drags on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Higher rates tend to be a negative for tech and growth stocks, whose valuations rely more heavily on future cash flows.U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the benchmark 10-year note nearly hitting 3%, after Germany reported record-high increases in monthly producer prices.Investors have been weighing how aggressive the Federal Reserve may need to be as it raises interest rates to battle inflation.Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said on Friday that U.S. central bank officials have \"a lot of time still\" before they need to decide how large an interest rate increase to approve at their Sept. 20-21 policy meeting.\"The rise in rates around the globe and tough talk from central bankers are being used as an excuse to push stocks lower in very light volume on an August Friday session,\" said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 292.3 points, or 0.86%, to 33,706.74, the S&P 500 lost 55.26 points, or 1.29%, to 4,228.48 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 260.13 points, or 2.01%, to 12,705.22.All three major indexes registered losses for the week. The S&P 500 fell about 1.2% and the Nasdaq slid 2.6% in their first weekly declines after four weeks of gains. The Dow lost about 0.2% for the week.After notching its worst first half since 1970, the S&P 500 has bounced some 16% from its mid-June low, fueled by stronger-than-expected corporate earnings and hopes the economy can avoid a recession even as the Fed hikes rates.Friday's monthly options expiration should also make way for greater near-term stock market moves as options positions expire, said Brent Kochuba, founder of options-focused financial insights company SpotGamma.The U.S. central bank needs to keep raising borrowing costs to tame decades-high inflation, a string of U.S. central bank officials said on Thursday, even as they debated how fast and how high to lift them.The Fed has raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 225 basis points since March to fight inflation at a four decade-high.Focus next week may be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on the economic outlook at the annual global central bankers' conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.Meme stock Bed Bath & Beyond Inc plunged 40.5% as billionaire investor Ryan Cohen exited the struggling home goods retailer by selling his stake.The S&P banking index fell 2.1% after recent gains.Shares of Deere & Co ended slightly higher, even after it lowered its full-year profit outlook and said it has sold out of large tractors as it grapples with parts shortages and high costs.Volume on U.S. exchanges was last at 10.01 billion shares in one of the lowest volume days of the year.Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 6.06-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.59-to-1 ratio favored decliners.The S&P 500 posted 1 new 52-week highs and 29 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 43 new highs and 93 new lows.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPXU":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"DE":0.9,"SQQQ":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SH":0.6,".IXIC":0.65,"TQQQ":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"PSQ":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"AAPL":0.9,"QQQ":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"MNQmain":0.6,"COMP":0.9,"MSFT":0.9,"BBBY":0.9,"ESmain":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"UPRO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":933,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9998357996,"gmtCreate":1660951419717,"gmtModify":1676536427202,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090574021972690","authorIdStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9998357996","repostId":"2260373492","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2260373492","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1660953025,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2260373492?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-20 07:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US STOCKS-Wall Street Ends Down As Yields Rise; Indexes Post Weekly Losses","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2260373492","media":"Reuters","summary":"* Investors await Jackson Hole conference next week* 10-year U.S. Treasury yield nears 3%* Indexes: ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>* Investors await Jackson Hole conference next week</p><p>* 10-year U.S. Treasury yield nears 3%</p><p>* Indexes: Dow down 0.9%, S&amp;P 500 down 1.3%, Nasdaq down 2%</p><p>NEW YORK, Aug 19 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Friday in a broad selloff led by megacaps as U.S. bond yields rose, with the S&amp;P 500 posting losses for the week after four straight weeks of gains.</p><p>Amazon.com, Apple and Microsoft all fell and were the biggest drags on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq. Higher rates tend to be a negative for tech and growth stocks, whose valuations rely more heavily on future cash flows.</p><p>U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the benchmark 10-year note nearly hitting 3%, after Germany reported record-high increases in monthly producer prices.</p><p>Investors have been weighing how aggressive the Federal Reserve may need to be as it raises interest rates to battle inflation.</p><p>Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said on Friday that U.S. central bank officials have &#34;a lot of time still&#34; before they need to decide how large an interest rate increase to approve at their Sept. 20-21 policy meeting.</p><p>&#34;The rise in rates around the globe and tough talk from central bankers are being used as an excuse to push stocks lower in very light volume on an August Friday session,&#34; said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 292.3 points, or 0.86%, to 33,706.74, the S&amp;P 500 lost 55.26 points, or 1.29%, to 4,228.48 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 260.13 points, or 2.01%, to 12,705.22.</p><p>All three major indexes registered losses for the week. The S&amp;P 500 fell about 1.2% and the Nasdaq slid 2.6% in their first weekly declines after four weeks of gains. The Dow lost about 0.2% for the week.</p><p>After notching its worst first half since 1970, the S&amp;P 500 has bounced some 16% from its mid-June low, fueled by stronger-than-expected corporate earnings and hopes the economy can avoid a recession even as the Fed hikes rates.</p><p>Friday&#39;s monthly options expiration should also make way for greater near-term stock market moves as options positions expire, said Brent Kochuba, founder of options-focused financial insights company SpotGamma.</p><p>The U.S. central bank needs to keep raising borrowing costs to tame decades-high inflation, a string of U.S. central bank officials said on Thursday, even as they debated how fast and how high to lift them.</p><p>The Fed has raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 225 basis points since March to fight inflation at a four decade-high.</p><p>Focus next week may be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#39;s speech on the economic outlook at the annual global central bankers&#39; conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.</p><p>Meme stock Bed Bath &amp; Beyond Inc plunged 40.5% as billionaire investor Ryan Cohen exited the struggling home goods retailer by selling his stake.</p><p>The S&amp;P banking index fell 2.1% after recent gains.</p><p>Shares of Deere &amp; Co ended slightly higher, even after it lowered its full-year profit outlook and said it has sold out of large tractors as it grapples with parts shortages and high costs.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was last at 10.01 billion shares in one of the lowest volume days of the year.</p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 6.06-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.59-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 1 new 52-week highs and 29 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 43 new highs and 93 new lows.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US STOCKS-Wall Street Ends Down As Yields Rise; Indexes Post Weekly Losses</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS STOCKS-Wall Street Ends Down As Yields Rise; Indexes Post Weekly Losses\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-08-20 07:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>* Investors await Jackson Hole conference next week</p><p>* 10-year U.S. Treasury yield nears 3%</p><p>* Indexes: Dow down 0.9%, S&amp;P 500 down 1.3%, Nasdaq down 2%</p><p>NEW YORK, Aug 19 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Friday in a broad selloff led by megacaps as U.S. bond yields rose, with the S&amp;P 500 posting losses for the week after four straight weeks of gains.</p><p>Amazon.com, Apple and Microsoft all fell and were the biggest drags on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq. Higher rates tend to be a negative for tech and growth stocks, whose valuations rely more heavily on future cash flows.</p><p>U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the benchmark 10-year note nearly hitting 3%, after Germany reported record-high increases in monthly producer prices.</p><p>Investors have been weighing how aggressive the Federal Reserve may need to be as it raises interest rates to battle inflation.</p><p>Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said on Friday that U.S. central bank officials have &#34;a lot of time still&#34; before they need to decide how large an interest rate increase to approve at their Sept. 20-21 policy meeting.</p><p>&#34;The rise in rates around the globe and tough talk from central bankers are being used as an excuse to push stocks lower in very light volume on an August Friday session,&#34; said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 292.3 points, or 0.86%, to 33,706.74, the S&amp;P 500 lost 55.26 points, or 1.29%, to 4,228.48 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 260.13 points, or 2.01%, to 12,705.22.</p><p>All three major indexes registered losses for the week. The S&amp;P 500 fell about 1.2% and the Nasdaq slid 2.6% in their first weekly declines after four weeks of gains. The Dow lost about 0.2% for the week.</p><p>After notching its worst first half since 1970, the S&amp;P 500 has bounced some 16% from its mid-June low, fueled by stronger-than-expected corporate earnings and hopes the economy can avoid a recession even as the Fed hikes rates.</p><p>Friday&#39;s monthly options expiration should also make way for greater near-term stock market moves as options positions expire, said Brent Kochuba, founder of options-focused financial insights company SpotGamma.</p><p>The U.S. central bank needs to keep raising borrowing costs to tame decades-high inflation, a string of U.S. central bank officials said on Thursday, even as they debated how fast and how high to lift them.</p><p>The Fed has raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 225 basis points since March to fight inflation at a four decade-high.</p><p>Focus next week may be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#39;s speech on the economic outlook at the annual global central bankers&#39; conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.</p><p>Meme stock Bed Bath &amp; Beyond Inc plunged 40.5% as billionaire investor Ryan Cohen exited the struggling home goods retailer by selling his stake.</p><p>The S&amp;P banking index fell 2.1% after recent gains.</p><p>Shares of Deere &amp; Co ended slightly higher, even after it lowered its full-year profit outlook and said it has sold out of large tractors as it grapples with parts shortages and high costs.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was last at 10.01 billion shares in one of the lowest volume days of the year.</p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 6.06-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.59-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 1 new 52-week highs and 29 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 43 new highs and 93 new lows.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"OEX":"标普100","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","COMP":"Compass, Inc.","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","DE":"迪尔股份有限公司","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4539":"次新股","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","BBBY":"Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4581":"高盛持仓","AAPL":"苹果","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","MSFT":"微软","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2260373492","content_text":"* Investors await Jackson Hole conference next week* 10-year U.S. Treasury yield nears 3%* Indexes: Dow down 0.9%, S&P 500 down 1.3%, Nasdaq down 2%NEW YORK, Aug 19 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Friday in a broad selloff led by megacaps as U.S. bond yields rose, with the S&P 500 posting losses for the week after four straight weeks of gains.Amazon.com, Apple and Microsoft all fell and were the biggest drags on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Higher rates tend to be a negative for tech and growth stocks, whose valuations rely more heavily on future cash flows.U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the benchmark 10-year note nearly hitting 3%, after Germany reported record-high increases in monthly producer prices.Investors have been weighing how aggressive the Federal Reserve may need to be as it raises interest rates to battle inflation.Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said on Friday that U.S. central bank officials have \"a lot of time still\" before they need to decide how large an interest rate increase to approve at their Sept. 20-21 policy meeting.\"The rise in rates around the globe and tough talk from central bankers are being used as an excuse to push stocks lower in very light volume on an August Friday session,\" said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 292.3 points, or 0.86%, to 33,706.74, the S&P 500 lost 55.26 points, or 1.29%, to 4,228.48 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 260.13 points, or 2.01%, to 12,705.22.All three major indexes registered losses for the week. The S&P 500 fell about 1.2% and the Nasdaq slid 2.6% in their first weekly declines after four weeks of gains. The Dow lost about 0.2% for the week.After notching its worst first half since 1970, the S&P 500 has bounced some 16% from its mid-June low, fueled by stronger-than-expected corporate earnings and hopes the economy can avoid a recession even as the Fed hikes rates.Friday's monthly options expiration should also make way for greater near-term stock market moves as options positions expire, said Brent Kochuba, founder of options-focused financial insights company SpotGamma.The U.S. central bank needs to keep raising borrowing costs to tame decades-high inflation, a string of U.S. central bank officials said on Thursday, even as they debated how fast and how high to lift them.The Fed has raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 225 basis points since March to fight inflation at a four decade-high.Focus next week may be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on the economic outlook at the annual global central bankers' conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.Meme stock Bed Bath & Beyond Inc plunged 40.5% as billionaire investor Ryan Cohen exited the struggling home goods retailer by selling his stake.The S&P banking index fell 2.1% after recent gains.Shares of Deere & Co ended slightly higher, even after it lowered its full-year profit outlook and said it has sold out of large tractors as it grapples with parts shortages and high costs.Volume on U.S. exchanges was last at 10.01 billion shares in one of the lowest volume days of the year.Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 6.06-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.59-to-1 ratio favored decliners.The S&P 500 posted 1 new 52-week highs and 29 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 43 new highs and 93 new lows.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPXU":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"DE":0.9,"SQQQ":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SH":0.6,".IXIC":0.65,"TQQQ":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"PSQ":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"AAPL":0.9,"QQQ":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"MNQmain":0.6,"COMP":0.9,"MSFT":0.9,"BBBY":0.9,"ESmain":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"UPRO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":933,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9931015380,"gmtCreate":1662358941541,"gmtModify":1676537045066,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090574021972690","authorIdStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9931015380","repostId":"1168515999","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":995,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9090550084,"gmtCreate":1643237006584,"gmtModify":1676533787783,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090574021972690","authorIdStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😃","listText":"😃","text":"😃","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9090550084","repostId":"1146757235","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":502064103338904,"gmtCreate":1763583816372,"gmtModify":1763583819043,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090574021972690","authorIdStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/YINN\">$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$ </a>&nbsp;[白眼]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/YINN\">$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$ </a>&nbsp;[白眼]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$ [白眼]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ab4c4e978d04542c29d7bb43e98745a6","width":"894","height":"1564"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/502064103338904","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":502063573049600,"gmtCreate":1763583759420,"gmtModify":1763583762158,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090574021972690","authorIdStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/YINN\">$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$ </a>&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/YINN\">$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$ </a>&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$ [流泪]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/365afa978f8bc0bf1824141a315ef73f","width":"894","height":"1564"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/502063573049600","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9986097929,"gmtCreate":1666845246261,"gmtModify":1676537816031,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090574021972690","authorIdStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986097929","repostId":"1161103277","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2950,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9933666947,"gmtCreate":1662275507489,"gmtModify":1676537029657,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090574021972690","authorIdStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9933666947","repostId":"1124597083","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1124597083","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1662253428,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124597083?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-04 09:03","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Chase hot stocks or invest in \"black holes\", remember to stay away from such stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124597083","media":"券商中国","summary":"本周，股神巴菲特两度出售比亚迪H股的消息，引发市场高度关注。在炮声隆隆中买进，在号角吹响时卖出，这正是股神对交易性投资机会的买卖原则。普通投资者容易被热门股票不断上升的股价蒙住双眼，但热门行业的热门股","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>This week, Warren Buffett sold twice<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>The news of H shares has aroused great concern in the market. Buy in the rumble of guns and sell when the horn blows. This is the trading principle of stock gods for trading investment opportunities.</p><p>Ordinary investors are easily blindfolded by the rising stock prices of popular stocks, but popular stocks in popular industries are often the source of painful losses for investors. Popular stocks are often expensive, and the valuation itself contains extremely high growth expectations. Once the facts are inconsistent with expectations, the valuation will decline rapidly. After the bubble burst, the share prices of many popular stocks are often less than a fraction of their peak.</p><p>In the A-share bull market from 2013 to 2015, the media industry was undoubtedly the hottest stock. However, in less than a year after the bubble burst, many media stocks fell by nearly 70%, and since the peak of market value in 2015, the hot media leading stocks at that time fell by nearly 90%; Similarly, in the big bull market from 2005 to 2007, stocks with Chinese prefixes were highly sought after, such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600150\">China Ships</a>It once reached 300 yuan per share, but the stock price fell by 80% in 2008. Now, almost 15 years have passed, and the stock price of China Shipbuilding is still hovering in 26 yuan.</p><p>Although there are also very few popular stocks that can cross bulls and bears, such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>Companies such as those used to be hot stocks, but if investors chase hot stocks with excessively high valuations, they have to be psychologically prepared to de-bubble for a long time.</p><p><b>Chasing hot stocks or investing in \"black holes\"</b></p><p>\"As long as you resolutely refrain from buying stocks with particularly high P/E, you will avoid great pain and huge investment losses. With rare exceptions, particularly high P/E is an obstacle to rising stock prices, just as particularly heavy saddles are an obstacle to racehorses.\" As legendary fund manager Peter Lynch said, chasing hot stocks is the main source of investor losses.</p><p>In the bull market of 2013-2015, the concept of media soared, but investors who were tempted paid a heavy price. In the year after the Shanghai Composite Index hit 5,178 points in 2015, many leading media stocks fell by more than 60%. So far, seven years have passed, and the stock prices of some individual stocks are only about 10% off the original high point.</p><p>When the bull market broke out in 2015, media stocks also met the concept of high growth. Such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300027\">Huayi Brothers</a>The compound annual growth rate of net profit in the three years from 2012 to 2015 was as high as 70%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600637\">Oriental Pearl Tower</a>The compound annual growth rate of net profit from 2012 to 2015 is as high as 80%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300291\">Bai Na Qiancheng</a>The compound annual growth rate of net profit from 2012 to 2015 also reached 30%.</p><p>The high growth of the media industry has been sought after by the market. From 2012 to 2015, Huayi Brothers, Baina Qiancheng,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600986\">Zhejiang Internet</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000156\">Wasu Media</a>Many media stocks rose by about 10 times. But in just one year after the bubble burst in 2015, these stocks all fell by more than 50%. Since mid-2015, the original leading stocks such as Huayi Brothers and Baina Qiancheng have fallen by more than 90%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32db6c15c7706df6630577ae58859e0d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"992\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This scene also seems familiar. In the bull market from 2005 to 2007, due to factors such as the concept of the Olympic Games, large-cap stocks with Chinese prefix were sought after by investors. However, after the bubble burst, the Chinese prefix sector became the hardest hit area for the decline. Such as Chinese ships,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACH\">Aluminum of China</a>The decline of other companies in 2018 exceeded 80%, and the stock prices of these companies are still far from their original highs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0584e8c7575e87abd7fedeae90911d5b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Don't Let Hot Stocks Become Wealth Meat Grinders</b></p><p>Although a few popular stocks have the ability to satisfy the market for a long time, most popular stocks will eventually become featureless common stocks, suffering from the double kill of declining valuation and performance, and becoming the meat grinder of wealth. The P/E of a popular company is usually high, and only when its earnings keep growing at a high rate in the future can it maintain the high stock price that investors paid for it in the past.</p><p>As John Neff, who has been at the helm of the Windsor Fund for 30 years, said, some trend investors like to pin their hopes on high-growth companies, but the performance decline of such companies in any quarter is enough to devastate the market. Even if their performance is only one step away from the expected target, and it is conceivable that the final corporate profits will fluctuate greatly, the market will still not give any forgiveness.</p><p>\"High P/E stocks are very fragile. Once the expectation of high growth rate is missed, the market's view of the company will be a thousand miles wrong. No matter how much the actual difference is, this uncertainty alone is enough to hit the stock price hard,\" Johann Neff once said.</p><p>Under high expectations, investors are also demanding. Once the performance growth of well-known growth stocks is lower than market expectations, investors will speculate that the company's high growth is no longer available, and the direct consequence of changes in investor sentiment is the P/E plunge of popular stocks. Even if the company's earnings per share remain unchanged, if P/E plunges from 40 times to 10 times, the stock price will plummet by 70%.</p><p>It is worth noting that the profit model is not a particularly good hot industry. If the homogeneity is strong and the competition is mainly won by price, the industry will face two major consequences: difficulty in improving profit margins and returning valuations after peaking. If investors catch up with higher valuations, they may face greater debubble risks.</p><p>As in the 1960s,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XRX\">Xerox</a>The company's stock was very hot. At that time, the photocopying industry was a fabulous industry, and \"Xerox\" became synonymous with photocopying, but with Japan<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAJ\">Canon</a>After entering the photocopying industry, fierce competition and the failure of diversification caused Xerox's share price to fall by 84%.</p><p>\"If there is one stock I avoid buying, it must be the hottest stock in the hottest industry. This kind of stock is widely watched. Every investor will hear people talk about this kind of stock in the car or train on the way to and from work. The average person tends to buy this kind of stock because of this strong social pressure.\" Peter Lynch once said that hot stocks rise fast, always rising far beyond the value estimated by any valuation method, but because only investors' wishful thinking is supporting the rapid rise of stock prices, while the substance of company fundamentals is as thin as air, hot stocks fall as fast as they rise.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chase hot stocks or invest in \"black holes\", remember to stay away from such stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChase hot stocks or invest in \"black holes\", remember to stay away from such stocks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-04 09:03</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>This week, Warren Buffett sold twice<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>The news of H shares has aroused great concern in the market. Buy in the rumble of guns and sell when the horn blows. This is the trading principle of stock gods for trading investment opportunities.</p><p>Ordinary investors are easily blindfolded by the rising stock prices of popular stocks, but popular stocks in popular industries are often the source of painful losses for investors. Popular stocks are often expensive, and the valuation itself contains extremely high growth expectations. Once the facts are inconsistent with expectations, the valuation will decline rapidly. After the bubble burst, the share prices of many popular stocks are often less than a fraction of their peak.</p><p>In the A-share bull market from 2013 to 2015, the media industry was undoubtedly the hottest stock. However, in less than a year after the bubble burst, many media stocks fell by nearly 70%, and since the peak of market value in 2015, the hot media leading stocks at that time fell by nearly 90%; Similarly, in the big bull market from 2005 to 2007, stocks with Chinese prefixes were highly sought after, such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600150\">China Ships</a>It once reached 300 yuan per share, but the stock price fell by 80% in 2008. Now, almost 15 years have passed, and the stock price of China Shipbuilding is still hovering in 26 yuan.</p><p>Although there are also very few popular stocks that can cross bulls and bears, such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>Companies such as those used to be hot stocks, but if investors chase hot stocks with excessively high valuations, they have to be psychologically prepared to de-bubble for a long time.</p><p><b>Chasing hot stocks or investing in \"black holes\"</b></p><p>\"As long as you resolutely refrain from buying stocks with particularly high P/E, you will avoid great pain and huge investment losses. With rare exceptions, particularly high P/E is an obstacle to rising stock prices, just as particularly heavy saddles are an obstacle to racehorses.\" As legendary fund manager Peter Lynch said, chasing hot stocks is the main source of investor losses.</p><p>In the bull market of 2013-2015, the concept of media soared, but investors who were tempted paid a heavy price. In the year after the Shanghai Composite Index hit 5,178 points in 2015, many leading media stocks fell by more than 60%. So far, seven years have passed, and the stock prices of some individual stocks are only about 10% off the original high point.</p><p>When the bull market broke out in 2015, media stocks also met the concept of high growth. Such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300027\">Huayi Brothers</a>The compound annual growth rate of net profit in the three years from 2012 to 2015 was as high as 70%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600637\">Oriental Pearl Tower</a>The compound annual growth rate of net profit from 2012 to 2015 is as high as 80%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300291\">Bai Na Qiancheng</a>The compound annual growth rate of net profit from 2012 to 2015 also reached 30%.</p><p>The high growth of the media industry has been sought after by the market. From 2012 to 2015, Huayi Brothers, Baina Qiancheng,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600986\">Zhejiang Internet</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000156\">Wasu Media</a>Many media stocks rose by about 10 times. But in just one year after the bubble burst in 2015, these stocks all fell by more than 50%. Since mid-2015, the original leading stocks such as Huayi Brothers and Baina Qiancheng have fallen by more than 90%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32db6c15c7706df6630577ae58859e0d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"992\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This scene also seems familiar. In the bull market from 2005 to 2007, due to factors such as the concept of the Olympic Games, large-cap stocks with Chinese prefix were sought after by investors. However, after the bubble burst, the Chinese prefix sector became the hardest hit area for the decline. Such as Chinese ships,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACH\">Aluminum of China</a>The decline of other companies in 2018 exceeded 80%, and the stock prices of these companies are still far from their original highs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0584e8c7575e87abd7fedeae90911d5b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Don't Let Hot Stocks Become Wealth Meat Grinders</b></p><p>Although a few popular stocks have the ability to satisfy the market for a long time, most popular stocks will eventually become featureless common stocks, suffering from the double kill of declining valuation and performance, and becoming the meat grinder of wealth. The P/E of a popular company is usually high, and only when its earnings keep growing at a high rate in the future can it maintain the high stock price that investors paid for it in the past.</p><p>As John Neff, who has been at the helm of the Windsor Fund for 30 years, said, some trend investors like to pin their hopes on high-growth companies, but the performance decline of such companies in any quarter is enough to devastate the market. Even if their performance is only one step away from the expected target, and it is conceivable that the final corporate profits will fluctuate greatly, the market will still not give any forgiveness.</p><p>\"High P/E stocks are very fragile. Once the expectation of high growth rate is missed, the market's view of the company will be a thousand miles wrong. No matter how much the actual difference is, this uncertainty alone is enough to hit the stock price hard,\" Johann Neff once said.</p><p>Under high expectations, investors are also demanding. Once the performance growth of well-known growth stocks is lower than market expectations, investors will speculate that the company's high growth is no longer available, and the direct consequence of changes in investor sentiment is the P/E plunge of popular stocks. Even if the company's earnings per share remain unchanged, if P/E plunges from 40 times to 10 times, the stock price will plummet by 70%.</p><p>It is worth noting that the profit model is not a particularly good hot industry. If the homogeneity is strong and the competition is mainly won by price, the industry will face two major consequences: difficulty in improving profit margins and returning valuations after peaking. If investors catch up with higher valuations, they may face greater debubble risks.</p><p>As in the 1960s,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XRX\">Xerox</a>The company's stock was very hot. At that time, the photocopying industry was a fabulous industry, and \"Xerox\" became synonymous with photocopying, but with Japan<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAJ\">Canon</a>After entering the photocopying industry, fierce competition and the failure of diversification caused Xerox's share price to fall by 84%.</p><p>\"If there is one stock I avoid buying, it must be the hottest stock in the hottest industry. This kind of stock is widely watched. Every investor will hear people talk about this kind of stock in the car or train on the way to and from work. The average person tends to buy this kind of stock because of this strong social pressure.\" Peter Lynch once said that hot stocks rise fast, always rising far beyond the value estimated by any valuation method, but because only investors' wishful thinking is supporting the rapid rise of stock prices, while the substance of company fundamentals is as thin as air, hot stocks fall as fast as they rise.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41a3265725dba67c0660b26a189585aa","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124597083","content_text":"本周，股神巴菲特两度出售比亚迪H股的消息，引发市场高度关注。在炮声隆隆中买进，在号角吹响时卖出，这正是股神对交易性投资机会的买卖原则。普通投资者容易被热门股票不断上升的股价蒙住双眼，但热门行业的热门股票往往是投资者惨痛亏损的来源。热门股票往往估值昂贵，估值本身包含着极高的成长预期，一旦事实与预期不符，则估值迅速下滑。在泡沫破裂后，很多热门股票的股价往往不足高峰时期的零头。在2013年至2015年A股那波大牛市中，传媒行业当属最热门的股票，但泡沫破裂后不到一年的时间中，多只传媒股跌幅近70%，而从2015年市值顶峰至今，当时炙手可热的传媒龙头股跌幅更是近90%；同样，在2005年至2007年那波大牛市中，中字头的股票备受追捧，如中国船舶一度达到每股300元，但2008年该股股价跌去了80%，如今快15年过去了，中国船舶的股价依然在26元徘徊。虽然也有极少数热门股可以穿越牛熊，如亚马逊、沃尔玛、贵州茅台、腾讯控股等公司也都曾是热门股，但是投资者如果以过高的估值追逐热门股，不得不做好长时间去泡沫的心理准备。追逐热门股或是投资“黑洞”“只要坚决不购买市盈率特别高的股票，就会让你避免巨大痛苦与巨大的投资亏损。除了极少数例外情况，特别高的市盈率是股价上涨的障碍，正如特别重的马鞍是赛马奔跑的障碍一样。”正如传奇基金经理彼得林奇所说的，追逐热门股是投资者亏损的主要来源。在2013至2015年那波牛市中，传媒概念一飞冲天，但受到诱惑的投资者都付出了惨重代价。距离2015年沪指触及5178点后的一年时间中，多只传媒龙头股跌幅超过60%。迄今为止，7年的时间过去了，部分个股的股价仅剩下当初高点时的一折左右。传媒股在2015年那波牛市爆发时，也符合高成长的概念。如华谊兄弟在2012年至2015年的三年净利润年复合增长率高达70%，东方明珠2012年至2015年的净利润年复合增长率高达80%；百纳千成2012年至2015年的净利润年复合增长率也达到30%。传媒行业的高成长性受到了市场的追捧。在2012年至2015年期间，华谊兄弟、百纳千成、浙文互联、华数传媒等多只传媒个股涨幅约为10倍。但在2015年泡沫破裂后短短一年的时间中，这些个股跌幅均超过50%。自2015年中期以来，当初的龙头股如华谊兄弟和百纳千成更是跌幅超过90%。这一幕也似曾相识。在2005到2007年的那波牛市中，由于奥运概念等因素，中字头的大盘股受到投资者追捧，但在泡沫破裂后，中字头板块成为下跌的重灾区。如中国船舶、中国铝业等公司在2018年的跌幅均超过80%，这些公司的股价至今距离当初高点仍然有很大的距离。别让热门股票成为财富绞肉机尽管少数热门个股长期具有令市场满意的成长能力，但大多数热门股终将沦为毫无特色的普通股，遭遇估值与业绩下降的双杀，成为财富的绞肉机。热门公司的市盈率通常很高，只有当未来它的收益保持高增长速度，才能维持投资者过去为其支付的高股价。正如执掌温莎基金长达30年的约翰·聂夫所说，一些趋势投资者喜欢把希望寄托在高增长率的公司上，但这类公司的股票在任何季度发生业绩滑坡都足以令市场悲痛欲绝。即使它们的业绩与预期目标只有一步之遥，并且可以设想最终的企业利润还会有很大的浮动，市场依然不会给予任何宽恕。“高市盈率股票是很脆弱的，高增长率预期一旦失之毫厘，市场对公司的看法就会谬以千里。不管实际相差多少，光是这种不确定性就足以让股价重创。”约翰·聂夫曾如是说。在高预期之下，投资者也是苛刻的。一旦知名成长股的业绩成长性低于市场预期，投资者则会推测该公司的高成长性不再，投资者情绪变化的直接后果便是热门股的市盈率高台跳水。即使该公司的每股收益保持不变，如果市盈率从40倍跳水至10倍，那么股价也会惨跌70%。值得关注的是，盈利模式不是特别好的热门行业，如果同质性很强，竞争主要以价格取胜，该行业见顶后将面临利润率难以提升和估值回归两大后果，投资者如果以较高的估值追入，可能面临较大去泡沫风险。就如在20世纪60年代，施乐公司的股票非常热门，那时复印行业是一个神话般的行业，而 “施乐”成了复印的代名词，但是随着日本佳能等进入了复印行业，激烈的竞争加上多元化的失败，施乐的股价下跌了84%。“如果说有一种股票我避而不买的话，那它一定是最热门行业中的最热门股票，这种股票受到大家的广泛关注，每个投资者都在上下班途中的汽车上或火车上会听到人们谈论这种股票，一般人往往由于禁不住这种强大的社会压力就买入这种股票。”彼得林奇曾表示，热门股票上涨得很快，总会上涨到远远超过任何估值方法能够估计出来的价值，但由于支撑股价快速上涨的只有投资者一厢情愿的期望，而公司基本面的实质性内容却像空气一样稀薄，所以热门股跌下去和涨上来的速度一样快。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1102,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9998318947,"gmtCreate":1660945466191,"gmtModify":1676536425921,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090574021972690","authorIdStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9998318947","repostId":"1172869300","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1172869300","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1660921730,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172869300?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-19 23:08","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Nasdaq fell 2%, star technology stocks generally fell","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172869300","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月19日，美股持续走低，纳指跌2%，明星科技股普遍走低，英伟达跌超4%，奈飞、Paypal跌超3%，特斯拉跌近3%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On August 19, U.S. stocks continued to fall, with the Nasdaq falling 2%, and star technology stocks generally falling.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">Paypal</a>Fell more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Fell nearly 3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c0b625edcbe1df7aea79d1104d04b22\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nasdaq fell 2%, star technology stocks generally fell</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNasdaq fell 2%, star technology stocks generally fell\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-08-19 23:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On August 19, U.S. stocks continued to fall, with the Nasdaq falling 2%, and star technology stocks generally falling.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">Paypal</a>Fell more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Fell nearly 3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c0b625edcbe1df7aea79d1104d04b22\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","PYPL":"PayPal","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","03086":"华夏纳指"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172869300","content_text":"8月19日，美股持续走低，纳指跌2%，明星科技股普遍走低，英伟达跌超4%，奈飞、Paypal跌超3%，特斯拉跌近3%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"03086":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"TTTN":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"QID":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":999,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9999155847,"gmtCreate":1660513227992,"gmtModify":1676533480249,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090574021972690","authorIdStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9999155847","repostId":"1114950238","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114950238","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1660471667,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1114950238?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-14 18:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Aspects of Google's valuation: Trillion-dollar giant, it's never too late to get on the bus","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114950238","media":"华尔街大事件","summary":"谷歌（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL，纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）便宜吗？这是一个有趣的问题，而且可以说很难回答。不同的投资者可能会得出不同的结论。但最后，我认为，这一切都与估值有关。在本文中，我将介绍","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Is (NASDAQ: GOOGL, NASDAQ: GOOG) Cheap? It's an interesting question, and arguably difficult to answer. Different investors may come to different conclusions. But in the end, I think, it's all about valuation.</p><p>In this article, I will cover three ways investors can evaluate Google: relative multiple comparisons (1), partial sum valuations (2), and residual income models (3).</p><p>My analysis finds that Google is a strong buying opportunity regardless of the valuation methodology.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d35d172c96758a4400121ad278122eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"237\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>01. Relative multiple comparisons</b></p><p>Arguably the simplest (but also the most superficial and ineffective) way to evaluate Google is through simple multiple analysis. Google's current one-year forward P/E is 22x, P/E is 5.5 x, and P/E is 5.3 x, according to data compiled by Seeking Alpha.</p><p>Compared to the company's industry peers, Google is valued at around 20% to 300%, depending on the relevant multiples.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ffeaff05b8f4fb732b1aaa8387b5d93\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Given the initial multiple introductions mentioned above, investors may argue that Google is expensive, and that would be the end of the story. However, I think there's a lot more to this story. In order to accurately reflect multiple valuations, the company's growth must be considered. Furthermore, since investing is a relative discipline (finding the best option in a set of opportunities), relative comparisons are required.</p><p>That said, I recommend using the PEG ratio, which is widely accepted as an informative valuation metric to capture the relative trade-off between a company's current stock price, current earnings, and expected growth. The PEG ratio is calculated by dividing a stock's one-year forward P/E by the analyst consensus estimate of the three-year CAGR estimate.</p><p>Google is currently valued at $118.22/share and has a one-year forward P/E of 22.5 x based on analysts' consensus EPS. Given that analysts estimate a 3-year CAGR of about 14%, I calculate a PEG of x1.6 by dividing 22.5 by 14. The same calculation for FAAMG peers returns x2.4 for META Platform (META), x3 for Apple (AAPL), x3.2 for<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>(AMZN) and x1.56 for Microsoft (MSFT). Therefore, in a relative comparison, Google is considered the second cheapest in the FAAMG field, with only<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Slightly cheaper.</p><p>If we compare Google's PEG to the large-cap PEG indicator of x4.5 (referencing the S&P 500 index), the company looks an absolute bargain.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96323d24d56bd766a48c91c621913ec0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"147\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Analyst Consensus EPS; Author's calculations</p><p>To sum up, investors can say that Google should trade reasonably at FAAMG's average PEG multiple, which is x2.37. Based on this multiple, we can reverse engineer the company's implied P/E because growth expectations are firm. This would give the implied P/E of x33. Therefore, the fair price per share should be around $173.</p><p><b>02. Partial total valuation</b></p><p>I'm not the biggest fan of partial sum valuations because I don't think it's reasonable to assume that a company's business units can be split without friction andor that investors have sufficient insight to allocate a company's fundamentals to various units. But I know that many investors like to anchor their ideas on SOTP, so leave it at that.</p><p>Google operates three key business segments: Google Services (Advertising), Google Cloud, and Other Bets. The idea is that if we can find a reasonable independent valuation for all of these segments and add those numbers together, we can come up with a valuation of the company.</p><p>The challenge is finding a reasonable valuation. But here's my evaluation of the segment:</p><p>Google Services: For Google Services, given that this segment is the most mature, I recommend using the DCF model. Based on my estimates, combined with analyst consensus estimates, it could generate $97 billion of operating cash flow in 2022 and ~ $112 billion in 2023. I'm assuming a 4.5% terminal value growth rate and a very reasonable cost of capital of 10%. Based on these assumptions, I calculated the enterprise value to be 1,863 billion.</p><p>Google Cloud: The cloud business unit is expected to generate revenue of $26.9 billion and operating losses of approximately $3.7 billion in 2022. I believe the EV/Sales multiple is the best anchor to valuation. Given that high-growth and high-potential software companies typically trade at 15x sales, I think 10x sales is arguably a reasonable anchor point. Therefore, I estimate the enterprise value at $269 billion.</p><p>Other bets: Given that other bets generate little revenue and the fundamentals of a particular bet are not transparent, this part is the most speculative and difficult to value. For example, we know that Waymo was valued at about $30 billion in 2021. According to reports, the previous valuation of self-driving arms was as high as $200 billion. Given the risk of valuing \"other bets\" and the lack of anchors, I advocate a very cautious approach: zero value.</p><p>So to calculate Google's consolidated enterprise value, we put $1,863 billion into Google Services, $269 billion into Google Cloud, and $0 into other bets. To arrive at the company's shareholder value, I further add Google's net cash of $96.19 billion.</p><p>Divided by outstanding shares, the calculated fair price per share is approximately $187.</p><p><b>03. Residual income model</b></p><p>The residual income model is my favorite tool for company valuation, but it is also arguably the most complex. According to the CFA Institute:</p><p>Conceptually, residual income is the expense (deduction) of net income minus the opportunity cost of generating net income to ordinary shareholders. It is the residual or residual income after considering all the capital costs of the company. So, I construct an RE model with the following assumptions:</p><p><ul><li>To forecast revenue and earnings per share, I base it on the analyst consensus forecast on Bloomberg Terminal. I put the consensus forecast to 2025. Everything since has been too speculative in my opinion.</p><p></li><li>In estimating the cost of funds, I used the WACC framework. I did a three-year regression model of the S&P index to find the stock's beta. For the risk-free rate, I used the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield as of August 1, 2022. My calculations indicate a reasonable WACC of 9%.</p><p></li><li>For the terminal growth rate, I use an expected nominal GDP growth rate of 3.5%. Although I believe that growth equal to estimated nominal long-term GDP growth significantly underestimates the company's growth potential, I advocate for a conservative approach.</p><p></li><li>I didn't simulate any share buybacks-further supporting conservative valuations.</p><p></li></ul>Based on the above assumptions, my calculations yield Google's basic target price of $156.24/share, implying an upside of more than 30%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/635d3fd62625541ac589d40c8b9a15af\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"233\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Analyst Consensus EPS; Author's calculations</p><p>As far as I understand, investors may have different assumptions about Google's required returns and terminal business growth. So I've also attached a sensitivity table to test different hypotheses. For reference, red cells mean overvalued and green cells mean undervalued compared to current market prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b32fda0fb04ce320d832a54397d7b6fc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"157\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Analyst Consensus EPS; Author's calculations</p><p><b>04. Conclusion</b></p><p>In this article, I propose three ways to evaluate Google, and it can be said that my assumptions are fairly conservative. It's important to note that all valuation techniques discussed suggest that the stock has considerable upside.</p><p>For relative multiple comparisons, I calculate a target price of $173, for a partial sum valuation I think $187 is fair, and for a residual income model, investors can assume an anchor price of $156.24.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Aspects of Google's valuation: Trillion-dollar giant, it's never too late to get on the bus</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAspects of Google's valuation: Trillion-dollar giant, it's never too late to get on the bus\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街大事件</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-08-14 18:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Is (NASDAQ: GOOGL, NASDAQ: GOOG) Cheap? It's an interesting question, and arguably difficult to answer. Different investors may come to different conclusions. But in the end, I think, it's all about valuation.</p><p>In this article, I will cover three ways investors can evaluate Google: relative multiple comparisons (1), partial sum valuations (2), and residual income models (3).</p><p>My analysis finds that Google is a strong buying opportunity regardless of the valuation methodology.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d35d172c96758a4400121ad278122eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"237\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>01. Relative multiple comparisons</b></p><p>Arguably the simplest (but also the most superficial and ineffective) way to evaluate Google is through simple multiple analysis. Google's current one-year forward P/E is 22x, P/E is 5.5 x, and P/E is 5.3 x, according to data compiled by Seeking Alpha.</p><p>Compared to the company's industry peers, Google is valued at around 20% to 300%, depending on the relevant multiples.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ffeaff05b8f4fb732b1aaa8387b5d93\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Given the initial multiple introductions mentioned above, investors may argue that Google is expensive, and that would be the end of the story. However, I think there's a lot more to this story. In order to accurately reflect multiple valuations, the company's growth must be considered. Furthermore, since investing is a relative discipline (finding the best option in a set of opportunities), relative comparisons are required.</p><p>That said, I recommend using the PEG ratio, which is widely accepted as an informative valuation metric to capture the relative trade-off between a company's current stock price, current earnings, and expected growth. The PEG ratio is calculated by dividing a stock's one-year forward P/E by the analyst consensus estimate of the three-year CAGR estimate.</p><p>Google is currently valued at $118.22/share and has a one-year forward P/E of 22.5 x based on analysts' consensus EPS. Given that analysts estimate a 3-year CAGR of about 14%, I calculate a PEG of x1.6 by dividing 22.5 by 14. The same calculation for FAAMG peers returns x2.4 for META Platform (META), x3 for Apple (AAPL), x3.2 for<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>(AMZN) and x1.56 for Microsoft (MSFT). Therefore, in a relative comparison, Google is considered the second cheapest in the FAAMG field, with only<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Slightly cheaper.</p><p>If we compare Google's PEG to the large-cap PEG indicator of x4.5 (referencing the S&P 500 index), the company looks an absolute bargain.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96323d24d56bd766a48c91c621913ec0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"147\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Analyst Consensus EPS; Author's calculations</p><p>To sum up, investors can say that Google should trade reasonably at FAAMG's average PEG multiple, which is x2.37. Based on this multiple, we can reverse engineer the company's implied P/E because growth expectations are firm. This would give the implied P/E of x33. Therefore, the fair price per share should be around $173.</p><p><b>02. Partial total valuation</b></p><p>I'm not the biggest fan of partial sum valuations because I don't think it's reasonable to assume that a company's business units can be split without friction andor that investors have sufficient insight to allocate a company's fundamentals to various units. But I know that many investors like to anchor their ideas on SOTP, so leave it at that.</p><p>Google operates three key business segments: Google Services (Advertising), Google Cloud, and Other Bets. The idea is that if we can find a reasonable independent valuation for all of these segments and add those numbers together, we can come up with a valuation of the company.</p><p>The challenge is finding a reasonable valuation. But here's my evaluation of the segment:</p><p>Google Services: For Google Services, given that this segment is the most mature, I recommend using the DCF model. Based on my estimates, combined with analyst consensus estimates, it could generate $97 billion of operating cash flow in 2022 and ~ $112 billion in 2023. I'm assuming a 4.5% terminal value growth rate and a very reasonable cost of capital of 10%. Based on these assumptions, I calculated the enterprise value to be 1,863 billion.</p><p>Google Cloud: The cloud business unit is expected to generate revenue of $26.9 billion and operating losses of approximately $3.7 billion in 2022. I believe the EV/Sales multiple is the best anchor to valuation. Given that high-growth and high-potential software companies typically trade at 15x sales, I think 10x sales is arguably a reasonable anchor point. Therefore, I estimate the enterprise value at $269 billion.</p><p>Other bets: Given that other bets generate little revenue and the fundamentals of a particular bet are not transparent, this part is the most speculative and difficult to value. For example, we know that Waymo was valued at about $30 billion in 2021. According to reports, the previous valuation of self-driving arms was as high as $200 billion. Given the risk of valuing \"other bets\" and the lack of anchors, I advocate a very cautious approach: zero value.</p><p>So to calculate Google's consolidated enterprise value, we put $1,863 billion into Google Services, $269 billion into Google Cloud, and $0 into other bets. To arrive at the company's shareholder value, I further add Google's net cash of $96.19 billion.</p><p>Divided by outstanding shares, the calculated fair price per share is approximately $187.</p><p><b>03. Residual income model</b></p><p>The residual income model is my favorite tool for company valuation, but it is also arguably the most complex. According to the CFA Institute:</p><p>Conceptually, residual income is the expense (deduction) of net income minus the opportunity cost of generating net income to ordinary shareholders. It is the residual or residual income after considering all the capital costs of the company. So, I construct an RE model with the following assumptions:</p><p><ul><li>To forecast revenue and earnings per share, I base it on the analyst consensus forecast on Bloomberg Terminal. I put the consensus forecast to 2025. Everything since has been too speculative in my opinion.</p><p></li><li>In estimating the cost of funds, I used the WACC framework. I did a three-year regression model of the S&P index to find the stock's beta. For the risk-free rate, I used the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield as of August 1, 2022. My calculations indicate a reasonable WACC of 9%.</p><p></li><li>For the terminal growth rate, I use an expected nominal GDP growth rate of 3.5%. Although I believe that growth equal to estimated nominal long-term GDP growth significantly underestimates the company's growth potential, I advocate for a conservative approach.</p><p></li><li>I didn't simulate any share buybacks-further supporting conservative valuations.</p><p></li></ul>Based on the above assumptions, my calculations yield Google's basic target price of $156.24/share, implying an upside of more than 30%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/635d3fd62625541ac589d40c8b9a15af\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"233\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Analyst Consensus EPS; Author's calculations</p><p>As far as I understand, investors may have different assumptions about Google's required returns and terminal business growth. So I've also attached a sensitivity table to test different hypotheses. For reference, red cells mean overvalued and green cells mean undervalued compared to current market prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b32fda0fb04ce320d832a54397d7b6fc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"157\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Analyst Consensus EPS; Author's calculations</p><p><b>04. Conclusion</b></p><p>In this article, I propose three ways to evaluate Google, and it can be said that my assumptions are fairly conservative. It's important to note that all valuation techniques discussed suggest that the stock has considerable upside.</p><p>For relative multiple comparisons, I calculate a target price of $173, for a partial sum valuation I think $187 is fair, and for a residual income model, investors can assume an anchor price of $156.24.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/dqylcM89RoeZMmuYxVlNgA\">华尔街大事件</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c934c5122816fe8cadd141c3a03c681e","relate_stocks":{"BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4576":"AR","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4566":"资本集团","GOOG":"谷歌","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/dqylcM89RoeZMmuYxVlNgA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1114950238","content_text":"谷歌（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL，纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）便宜吗？这是一个有趣的问题，而且可以说很难回答。不同的投资者可能会得出不同的结论。但最后，我认为，这一切都与估值有关。在本文中，我将介绍投资者评估 Google 的三种方式：相对多重比较 (1)、部分总和估值 (2) 和剩余收益模型 (3)。我的分析发现，无论采用何种估值方法，谷歌都是一个强大的买入机会。01、相对多重比较可以说，评估 Google 的最简单（但也是最肤浅和无效）的方法是通过简单的多重分析。根据Seeking Alpha编制的数据，谷歌目前的一年期远期市盈率为 22 倍，市盈率为 5.5 倍，市盈率为 5.3 倍。与公司行业同行相比，谷歌的估值约为 20% 至 300%，具体取决于相关倍数。鉴于上述最初的多次介绍，投资者可能会争辩说谷歌价格昂贵，这将是故事的结局。然而，我认为这个故事还有很多。为了准确反映多重估值，必须考虑公司的增长。此外，由于投资是一门相对学科（在机会集中找到最佳选择），因此需要进行相对比较。也就是说，我建议使用 PEG 比率，它被广泛接受为一种信息丰富的估值指标，以捕捉公司当前股价、当前收益和预期增长之间的相对权衡。PEG比率的计算方法是将股票的一年远期市盈率除以分析师一致估计的三年复合年增长率预期。谷歌目前的估值为 118.22 美元/股，根据分析师的普遍每股收益，一年的远期市盈率为 22.5 倍。鉴于分析师估计 3 年复合年增长率约为 14%，我将 22.5 除以 14 计算出 x1.6 的 PEG。对于 FAAMG 对等体的相同计算返回 x2.4 用于元平台 ( META )、x3 用于 Apple ( AAPL )、x3.2 用于亚马逊 ( AMZN ) 和 x1.56 用于 Microsoft ( MSFT )。因此，在相对比较中，谷歌在 FAAMG 领域中被认为是第二便宜的，只有微软稍微便宜一些。如果我们将 Google 的 PEG 与 x4.5（参考标准普尔 500 指数）的大盘 PEG 指标进行比较，该公司看起来绝对便宜。分析师共识每股收益；作者的计算综上所述，投资者可以说谷歌应该以 FAAMG 的平均 PEG 倍数合理交易，即 x2.37。基于这个倍数，我们可以对公司的隐含市盈率进行逆向工程，因为增长预期是坚定的。这将给出 x33 的隐含市盈率。因此，每股的公平价格应该在 173 美元左右。02、部分总和估值我不是部分总和估值的最大粉丝，因为我认为假设公司的业务部门可以毫无摩擦地分拆和/或投资者有足够的洞察力来分配公司的基本面是不合理的各种单位。但我知道，许多投资者喜欢将他们的想法锚定在 SOTP 上，所以就这样吧。谷歌经营三个关键业务部门：谷歌服务（广告）、谷歌云和其他赌注。这个想法是，如果我们能为所有这些细分市场找到一个合理的独立估值，并将这些数字相加，我们就可以得出公司的估值。挑战在于找到合理的估值。但这是我对细分市场的评价：Google 服务：对于 Google 服务，鉴于该细分市场最成熟，我建议使用 DCF 模型。根据我的估计，结合分析师的普遍估计，到 2022 年可能会产生 970 亿美元的经营现金流，到 2023 年将产生约 1120 亿美元。我假设终端价值增长率为 4.5%，资本成本非常合理，为 10%。基于这些假设，我计算出企业价值为 18630 亿。谷歌云：云业务部门预计 2022 年将产生 269 亿美元的收入和约 37 亿美元的运营亏损。我相信 EV/Sales 倍数最能锚定估值。鉴于高增长和高潜力的软件公司通常以 15 倍的销售额进行交易，我认为 10 倍的销售额可以说是一个合理的锚点。因此，我估计企业价值为 2690 亿美元。其他赌注：鉴于其他赌注产生的收入很少且特定赌注的基本面不透明，这部分是最具投机性且难以估值的部分。例如，我们知道 Waymo 在 2021 年的估值约为 300亿美元。据报道，此前自动驾驶手臂的估值高达 2000 亿美元。鉴于估值“其他赌注”的风险和缺乏锚点，我提倡一种非常谨慎的方法：价值为零。因此，为了计算谷歌的综合企业价值，我们将 18630 亿美元用于谷歌服务，2690 亿美元用于谷歌云，0 美元用于其他赌注。为了得出公司的股东价值，我进一步加上谷歌的961.9 亿美元净现金。除以流通股，计算得出的公平价格/股约为 187 美元。03、剩余收益模型剩余收益模型是我最喜欢的公司估值工具，但也可以说是最复杂的。根据 CFA 协会：从概念上讲，剩余收入是净收入减去普通股东产生净收入的机会成本的费用（扣除）。它是考虑公司所有资本成本后的剩余或剩余收入。因此，我构建了一个具有以下假设的 RE 模型：为了预测收入和每股收益，我基于彭博终端上的分析师共识预测。我将共识预测到 2025 年。在我看来，此后的一切都太投机了。在估算资金成本时，我使用了 WACC 框架。我对标准普尔指数进行了三年回归建模，以找到股票的贝塔值。对于无风险利率，我使用了截至 2022 年 8 月 1 日的美国 10 年期国债收益率。我的计算表明合理的 WACC 为 9%。对于终端增长率，我采用 3.5% 的预期名义 GDP 增长率。尽管我认为与估计的名义长期 GDP 增长相等的增长严重低估了公司的增长潜力，但我主张采取保守的方法。我没有模拟任何股票回购——进一步支持保守的估值。基于上述假设，我的计算得出谷歌的基本目标价为 156.24 美元/股，意味着上涨超过 30%。分析师共识每股收益；作者的计算据我了解，对于谷歌的要求回报和终端业务增长，投资者可能会有不同的假设。因此，我还附上了一个敏感度表来测试不同的假设。作为参考，与当前市场价格相比，红色单元格意味着高估，绿色单元格意味着低估。分析师共识每股收益；作者的计算04、结语在本文中，我提出了三种评估 Google 的方法，可以说我的假设相当保守。值得注意的是，讨论的所有估值技术都表明该股有相当大的上涨空间。对于相对多重比较，我计算出 173 美元的目标价，对于部分总和估值，我认为 187 美元是公平的，对于剩余收益模型，投资者可以假设 156.24 美元的锚定价格。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":0.9,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":952,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9032771905,"gmtCreate":1647466674890,"gmtModify":1676534232257,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090574021972690","authorIdStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9032771905","repostId":"1199521325","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199521325","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1647414953,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1199521325?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-16 15:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Why are shrinking balance sheet details more important than rate hike?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199521325","media":"Wind万得","summary":"在今晚“万众聚焦”美联储的FOMC会议上，除了首要议题加息外，也会有更多缩表相关的信号发布。资本市场已经基本消化了加息的影响，但美联储9万亿美元的资产负债表的缩减情况，至今还没有给出有效信号，市场对此","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>At tonight's FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve, in addition to rate hike, the top topic, more signals related to shrinking balance sheet will be released. The capital market has basically digested the impact of rate hike, but the reduction of the US $9 trillion balance sheet of the Federal Reserve has not yet given an effective signal, and the market is extremely concerned about this.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Strategists Mark Cabana and Katie Craig, as well as portfolio manager Thomas Graff at Brown Advisory, believe it is possible for policymakers to provide details on actions on balance sheets. If the Fed provides more information on shrinking balance sheet, it will be a big surprise to the capital market, because the market doesn't have any shrinking balance sheet expectations at this time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81ed508dd3ca3b5dbf30419df2e7b93a\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The highest inflation rate in the United States in 40 years is putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to take action, while Russia's conflict with Ukraine is adding downside risks to the economy and outlook. Advancing the shrinking balance sheet process will be regarded as a means to improve financial conditions and deal with high inflation, while also avoiding an unconventional rate hike in which a rate hike exceeds 25 basis points at a time.</p><p>Thomas Graff said on Tuesday that any information released by the Federal Reserve on its balance sheet will have a decisive impact. He said: \"If the Fed gives us a very clear guide on the balance sheet on Wednesday, it will be that the Fed is tightening as aggressively as possible, and that will be their way of sending the message outside of rate hike's actions.\"</p><p>Thomas Graff believes that financial markets will interpret this information as \"a very hawkish signal, causing investors to sell everything. Short-term yields will have to rise sharply, and the yield curve across the bond market will force the market to sell quite strongly, and may spread to other asset classes such as stocks.\"</p><p>Anyway, the Fed is unlikely to start a shrinking balance sheet this week, but they will give hints to the market on how the process will begin. Even so, it may catch traders off guard, as it did when the minutes of the December meeting were released on January 5. At the time, policymakers revealed that they had long discussions about shrinking their balance sheets. The release of the minutes of the meeting pushed the 10-year Treasury Bond yield to 2.140%, the highest level since April 2021, and prompted the two-year Treasury Bond yield to 1.855%.</p><p>In a report released on Monday, Bank of America's Mark Cabana and Katie Craig argued that while Fed officials are unlikely to make clear when quantitative tightening will begin, \"we may further clarify that the current geopolitical tensions in Ukraine have an impact on shrinking balance sheet.\" How much impact. \"</p><p>Cabana and Katie Craig wrote, \"We believe that the base scenario is that the Fed will announce and implement a shrinking balance sheet in May. Policymakers are unlikely to actively sell assets, but mainly rely on passive redemptions to reduce their balance sheet.\"</p><p>CME Fed Watch Tool data showed a 98% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike on Wednesday. Traders also believe that there is more than 50% chance that the Fed will make at least seven rate hike this year, with a 25 basis point rate hike each. This would raise the Fed's policy rate target, from the current 0% to 0.25%, to at least 1.75% to 2% or higher. However, that's still far behind what some call neutral rates, or that the Fed should show seriousness in fighting inflation.</p><p>Neither the Fed nor the markets are sure how shrinking the balance sheet will affect interest rates. However, an expanding balance sheet appears to correlate with higher global equity levels, according to Bank of America interest rate strategist Ralph Axel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4a0db1f323b5484fa46c24830596a94\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Michael Feroli said the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee may spend some time \"dealing with some unresolved issues\" during the two-day meeting. He wrote in a note last week: \"If they make progress in these discussions, we hope they will say something in their statements, or convey that in the opening remarks of Powell's press conference. Chairman Powell's press conference will be a natural venue to provide more details about plans to reduce the size of the balance sheet, such as the size caps for the monthly runoff elections, the phased implementation period of those caps, and the conditions under which the process will eventually be launched.\"</p><p>As of Tuesday afternoon, U.S. Treasury Bond resumed selling, and yields rose again ahead of Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee decision, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield once again standing at 2.1%.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why are shrinking balance sheet details more important than rate hike?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy are shrinking balance sheet details more important than rate hike?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-16 15:15</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>At tonight's FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve, in addition to rate hike, the top topic, more signals related to shrinking balance sheet will be released. The capital market has basically digested the impact of rate hike, but the reduction of the US $9 trillion balance sheet of the Federal Reserve has not yet given an effective signal, and the market is extremely concerned about this.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Strategists Mark Cabana and Katie Craig, as well as portfolio manager Thomas Graff at Brown Advisory, believe it is possible for policymakers to provide details on actions on balance sheets. If the Fed provides more information on shrinking balance sheet, it will be a big surprise to the capital market, because the market doesn't have any shrinking balance sheet expectations at this time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81ed508dd3ca3b5dbf30419df2e7b93a\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The highest inflation rate in the United States in 40 years is putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to take action, while Russia's conflict with Ukraine is adding downside risks to the economy and outlook. Advancing the shrinking balance sheet process will be regarded as a means to improve financial conditions and deal with high inflation, while also avoiding an unconventional rate hike in which a rate hike exceeds 25 basis points at a time.</p><p>Thomas Graff said on Tuesday that any information released by the Federal Reserve on its balance sheet will have a decisive impact. He said: \"If the Fed gives us a very clear guide on the balance sheet on Wednesday, it will be that the Fed is tightening as aggressively as possible, and that will be their way of sending the message outside of rate hike's actions.\"</p><p>Thomas Graff believes that financial markets will interpret this information as \"a very hawkish signal, causing investors to sell everything. Short-term yields will have to rise sharply, and the yield curve across the bond market will force the market to sell quite strongly, and may spread to other asset classes such as stocks.\"</p><p>Anyway, the Fed is unlikely to start a shrinking balance sheet this week, but they will give hints to the market on how the process will begin. Even so, it may catch traders off guard, as it did when the minutes of the December meeting were released on January 5. At the time, policymakers revealed that they had long discussions about shrinking their balance sheets. The release of the minutes of the meeting pushed the 10-year Treasury Bond yield to 2.140%, the highest level since April 2021, and prompted the two-year Treasury Bond yield to 1.855%.</p><p>In a report released on Monday, Bank of America's Mark Cabana and Katie Craig argued that while Fed officials are unlikely to make clear when quantitative tightening will begin, \"we may further clarify that the current geopolitical tensions in Ukraine have an impact on shrinking balance sheet.\" How much impact. \"</p><p>Cabana and Katie Craig wrote, \"We believe that the base scenario is that the Fed will announce and implement a shrinking balance sheet in May. Policymakers are unlikely to actively sell assets, but mainly rely on passive redemptions to reduce their balance sheet.\"</p><p>CME Fed Watch Tool data showed a 98% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike on Wednesday. Traders also believe that there is more than 50% chance that the Fed will make at least seven rate hike this year, with a 25 basis point rate hike each. This would raise the Fed's policy rate target, from the current 0% to 0.25%, to at least 1.75% to 2% or higher. However, that's still far behind what some call neutral rates, or that the Fed should show seriousness in fighting inflation.</p><p>Neither the Fed nor the markets are sure how shrinking the balance sheet will affect interest rates. However, an expanding balance sheet appears to correlate with higher global equity levels, according to Bank of America interest rate strategist Ralph Axel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4a0db1f323b5484fa46c24830596a94\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Michael Feroli said the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee may spend some time \"dealing with some unresolved issues\" during the two-day meeting. He wrote in a note last week: \"If they make progress in these discussions, we hope they will say something in their statements, or convey that in the opening remarks of Powell's press conference. Chairman Powell's press conference will be a natural venue to provide more details about plans to reduce the size of the balance sheet, such as the size caps for the monthly runoff elections, the phased implementation period of those caps, and the conditions under which the process will eventually be launched.\"</p><p>As of Tuesday afternoon, U.S. Treasury Bond resumed selling, and yields rose again ahead of Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee decision, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield once again standing at 2.1%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"JPM":"摩根大通","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","BAC":"美国银行","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199521325","content_text":"在今晚“万众聚焦”美联储的FOMC会议上，除了首要议题加息外，也会有更多缩表相关的信号发布。资本市场已经基本消化了加息的影响，但美联储9万亿美元的资产负债表的缩减情况，至今还没有给出有效信号，市场对此无比关切。美国银行策略师Mark Cabana 和 Katie Craig，以及 Brown Advisory的组合投资经理Thomas Graff 认为，政策制定者有可能提供对资产负债表做出行动的细节信息。如果美联储提供更多缩表信息，这对资本市场来说是一大意外，因为目前市场还没有任何缩表的预期。美国40年来最高的通货膨胀率正在给美联储施加压力，迫使其采取行动，而俄罗斯与乌克兰的冲突，正在给经济和前景增加下行风险。提前缩表进程，将被视为一种手段，可以改善金融状况，应对高通胀，同时也可以避免一次加息超过25个基点的超常规加息。Thomas Graff 在本周二表示，美联储释放任何有关资产负债表的信息，都会产生举足轻重的影响。他说：“如果美联储周三给我们一个关于资产负债表非常明确的指南，那将是美联储正在尽可能地激进收紧，这将是他们在加息行动之外，传递信息的方式。”Thomas Graff 认为，金融市场会将这一信息解读为“非常鹰派的信号，导致投资者抛售一切。短期收益率将不得不大幅上升，整个债市的收益率曲线将迫使市场出现相当强劲地抛售，并可能蔓延到股票等其他资产类别。”无论如何，美联储不太可能在本周就开始缩表，但他们会给出暗示，让市场获得将如何开始这一过程。即便如此，也可能会让交易员措手不及，1月5日公布12月会议纪要时一样。当时，政策制定者透露，他们就缩减资产负债表进行了长时间的讨论。会议纪要公布后，将10年期国债收益率推高至2.140%，达到2021年4月以来的最高水平，并促使两年期国债收益率升至1.855%。在周一发布的一份报告中，美国银行的Mark Cabana 和 Katie Craig认为，虽然美联储官员不太可能明确表示何时开始量化紧缩，“我们可能会进一步明确，乌克兰当前的地缘政治紧张局势对缩表产生了多大影响。”Cabana 和 Katie Craig写道，“我们认为，基本情形是，美联储将在5月宣布并实施缩表。政策制定者不太可能主动出售资产，而是主要依靠被动赎回来降低资产负债表。”CME美联储观察工具数据显示，周三加息25个基点的概率为98%。交易员们还认为，美联储今年至少加息七次，每次加息25个基点的可能性超过50%。这将使美联储的政策利率目标，从当前的0%到0.25%，至少提高到1.75%到2%或更高。然而，这仍然远远落后于一些人所说的中性利率，或者说美联储应该表现出对抗通胀的严肃态度。美联储和市场上，都不确定缩减资产负债表会对利率产生何种影响。然而，根据美国银行利率策略师Ralph Axel的说法，不断扩大的资产负债表似乎与更高的全球股本水平相关。摩根大通的Michael Feroli表示，制定政策的联邦公开市场委员会，可能会在为期两天的会议上花些时间“处理一些未解决的问题”。他上周在一份报告中写道：“如果他们在这些讨论中取得进展，我们希望他们在声明会有所表示，或者在鲍威尔新闻发布会的开幕词中传达这一点。鲍威尔主席的新闻发布会将是一个自然的场所，可以提供关于缩减资产负债表规模计划的更多细节，例如月度决选的规模上限、这些上限的分阶段实施期限，以及最终启动流程的条件。”截至周二下午，美国国债恢复抛售，在周三联邦公开市场委员会做出决定之前，收益率再次回升，10年期美债收益率再次站上2.1%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"830799":0.9,"830832":0.9,"830839":0.9,"830946":0.9,"830964":0.9,"JPM":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"BAC":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"SH":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1038,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9925872799,"gmtCreate":1672006563612,"gmtModify":1676538619867,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090574021972690","authorIdStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9925872799","repostId":"1154178439","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154178439","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"数据宝——中国股市大数据新媒体领先品牌，让您用手机也能从海量数据中获得有用的决策信息支持，数据是个宝，炒股不烦恼！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"数据宝","id":"41","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/462b2cc98f70412d82b85c0c4f356ccc"},"pubTimestamp":1671954682,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154178439?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-25 15:51","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Big reversal, northbound funds bucked the market and increased their positions, increasing their holdings in these three industries in a week!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154178439","media":"数据宝","summary":"北上资金逆市加仓，美容护理、通信、食品饮料行业成“香饽饽”。A股市场本周震荡下跌，上证指数跌破60日均线，一周累计跌3.85%；深证成指累计跌3.94%，创业板指累计跌3.69%。市场下跌的同时北上资","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Funds from the north increased their positions against the market trend, and the beauty care, communications, food and beverage industries became \"sweet cakes\".</p><p>The A-share market fluctuated and fell this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below the 60-day moving average, with a cumulative decline of 3.85% in one week; The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 3.94%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 3.69%.</p><p>While the market fell, northbound funds increased their positions in the opposite direction. According to the statistics of Securities Times Databao, the net inflow of funds going north this week was 4.353 billion yuan; Among them, the Shanghai stock market is significantly better than the Shenzhen stock market, with a net inflow of 4.92 billion yuan from Shanghai Stock Connect and a net outflow of 566 million yuan from Shenzhen Stock Connect.</p><p><b>Hog prices fall</b></p><p><b>Individual stocks in the industry chain were reduced by northbound funds</b></p><p>According to the statistics of data treasure, a total of 10 industries have increased the shareholding of capital from the north, and the beauty care, communication, food and beverage industries have increased their positions more, and the number of shares held has increased by more than 1% week-on-week. Some cyclical industries have been continuously reduced by northbound funds. The shareholdings of nine industries, including coal, chemicals, public utilities, and power equipment, have continuously declined in the past three weeks.<b>Among them, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery have the largest reduction in positions, with a cumulative decrease of 6.92% in shareholdings.</b></p><p>The beauty care industry was favored by northbound funds this week, with its shareholding increasing by 4.46%. The beauty care industry also outperformed the broader market this week, with the industry index falling slightly by 0.2%.<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301009\">Reliable Shares</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300957\">Bettany</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300896\">Amic</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002511\">Zhongshun Jierou</a></b>The cumulative increase in a week was among the top, all exceeding 3%.</p><p><b>Zhongshun Jierou</b>This week, the shareholding of capital from the north increased by more than 5 million shares, ranking first in the industry, with an increase of 10.57% from last week. The company recently released a summary of the stock incentive plan (draft). The target operating income from 2023 to 2025 is not less than 10 billion yuan, 11 billion yuan, and 12.1 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 9.29%, 20.22%, and 32.24% respectively compared with 2021, demonstrating The company's confidence in future development.</p><p>The Donghai Securities Research Report believes that looking forward to 2023, under the catalysis of the \"New Ten Articles\" of the epidemic policy, superimposed on the future trend of epidemic optimization expectations, it is believed that the fundamentals of the industry will recover, the leading domestic cosmetics products are expected to rise, and domestic substitution will accelerate; The offline consumption scene of medical beauty has recovered, and the subdivision track has developed rapidly. Leading companies are expected to usher in performance recovery.</p><p>Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery have recently been reduced by northbound funds, among which the holdings of pig industry-related stocks have dropped significantly month-on-month, including<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/605296\">Shennong Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002567\">Tang Ren God</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002100\">Tiankang Biotech</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002157\">Zhengbang Technology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300498\">Wen's Shares</a></b>Individual stocks fell by more than 15% month-on-month. Since late October, the price of live pigs has been declining continuously. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the price of live pigs (external three yuan) in mid-December was 18.2 yuan/kg, a new low in the second half of this year, down 17.3% from early December.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ddc3c9ccc90112546473a4247948146\" tg-width=\"892\" tg-height=\"804\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Two major liquor leaders received funds from the north</b></p><p><b>Net inflow exceeds 3 billion yuan</b></p><p>According to data statistics, a total of 35 shares were listed on the active list of capital transactions in the north this week; In terms of industries, electrical equipment, food and beverage stocks were actively traded this week, with a total transaction volume of more than 10 billion yuan. Food and beverage and non-bank financial stocks led the net inflow, while electrical equipment and electronics stocks were reduced by northbound funds.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">Wuliangye</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a></b>The two major liquor leaders occupy the first and second places in the net purchase amount of actively traded stocks, respectively, with a cumulative net inflow of 2.127 billion yuan and 1.305 billion yuan in a week, respectively, and these two stocks have received net inflow of funds from the north for six consecutive trading days.</p><p>Since November, the liquor index has been rising continuously, with a cumulative increase of 34.7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000686\">Northeast Securities</a>It is believed that the liquor sector will show a good growth trend in 2022, and the valuation of core liquor companies will gradually fall from the high level at the beginning of the year. Looking forward to next year, the development model of high-end liquor volume and price increase is clear, and the performance is certain. The pace of investment expansion of sub-high-end liquor is accelerating, and channel power and brand power have become the key to success.</p><p>Top five net inflows this week<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002603\">Yiling Pharmaceutical</a></b>It is also worth noting that the stock fell by 20.03% in a week, and northbound funds increased their positions against the market, with a net inflow of 948 million yuan.</p><p><b>Yiling Pharmaceutical</b>It was announced on Thursday that the company has never announced the \"Lianhua Qingwen Epidemic Prevention Prescription\" as listed in the article; We reserve the right to pursue the relevant legal responsibilities of the infringer who makes and spreads rumors. The formula of \"Lianhua Qingwen\" is an invention patent of the company, which is different from the \"formula\" listed in the article in medicinal flavor composition, prescription amount and preparation process.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b22014fe0cd68b83f4a50293f942b68\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"964\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to data statistics, according to the increase in positions, there are 24 shares with a month-on-month increase of more than 100% in the number of shares held this week; Excluding the sub-new shares listed this year, the largest month-on-month increase is<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002307\">Beixinluqiao</a></b>, Beishang Capital recently held 563,900 shares, and the number of shares held increased by 907.76% from the previous month. Followed by<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688690\">Nanotechnology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/605399\">Chenguang New Materials</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002424\">Guizhou Bailing</a></b>, increasing by 271.52%, 259.25%, and 258.99% respectively.</p><p>21 shares were significantly reduced by northbound funds, and their shareholdings all fell by more than 50% month-on-month.<b>Dongfang Electric Heating, Xingyuan Environment, Calabash Baby</b>The shareholdings of Beishang Capital fell by 85.4%, 85.19%, and 76.43% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baeeba082b85a98dfaecc62e293890b2\" tg-width=\"724\" tg-height=\"994\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Disclaimer: All information contents of Databao do not constitute investment advice. The stock market is risky, so investment should be cautious.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Big reversal, northbound funds bucked the market and increased their positions, increasing their holdings in these three industries in a week!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBig reversal, northbound funds bucked the market and increased their positions, increasing their holdings in these three industries in a week!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/41\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/462b2cc98f70412d82b85c0c4f356ccc);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">数据宝 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-25 15:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Funds from the north increased their positions against the market trend, and the beauty care, communications, food and beverage industries became \"sweet cakes\".</p><p>The A-share market fluctuated and fell this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below the 60-day moving average, with a cumulative decline of 3.85% in one week; The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 3.94%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 3.69%.</p><p>While the market fell, northbound funds increased their positions in the opposite direction. According to the statistics of Securities Times Databao, the net inflow of funds going north this week was 4.353 billion yuan; Among them, the Shanghai stock market is significantly better than the Shenzhen stock market, with a net inflow of 4.92 billion yuan from Shanghai Stock Connect and a net outflow of 566 million yuan from Shenzhen Stock Connect.</p><p><b>Hog prices fall</b></p><p><b>Individual stocks in the industry chain were reduced by northbound funds</b></p><p>According to the statistics of data treasure, a total of 10 industries have increased the shareholding of capital from the north, and the beauty care, communication, food and beverage industries have increased their positions more, and the number of shares held has increased by more than 1% week-on-week. Some cyclical industries have been continuously reduced by northbound funds. The shareholdings of nine industries, including coal, chemicals, public utilities, and power equipment, have continuously declined in the past three weeks.<b>Among them, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery have the largest reduction in positions, with a cumulative decrease of 6.92% in shareholdings.</b></p><p>The beauty care industry was favored by northbound funds this week, with its shareholding increasing by 4.46%. The beauty care industry also outperformed the broader market this week, with the industry index falling slightly by 0.2%.<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301009\">Reliable Shares</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300957\">Bettany</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300896\">Amic</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002511\">Zhongshun Jierou</a></b>The cumulative increase in a week was among the top, all exceeding 3%.</p><p><b>Zhongshun Jierou</b>This week, the shareholding of capital from the north increased by more than 5 million shares, ranking first in the industry, with an increase of 10.57% from last week. The company recently released a summary of the stock incentive plan (draft). The target operating income from 2023 to 2025 is not less than 10 billion yuan, 11 billion yuan, and 12.1 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 9.29%, 20.22%, and 32.24% respectively compared with 2021, demonstrating The company's confidence in future development.</p><p>The Donghai Securities Research Report believes that looking forward to 2023, under the catalysis of the \"New Ten Articles\" of the epidemic policy, superimposed on the future trend of epidemic optimization expectations, it is believed that the fundamentals of the industry will recover, the leading domestic cosmetics products are expected to rise, and domestic substitution will accelerate; The offline consumption scene of medical beauty has recovered, and the subdivision track has developed rapidly. Leading companies are expected to usher in performance recovery.</p><p>Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery have recently been reduced by northbound funds, among which the holdings of pig industry-related stocks have dropped significantly month-on-month, including<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/605296\">Shennong Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002567\">Tang Ren God</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002100\">Tiankang Biotech</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002157\">Zhengbang Technology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300498\">Wen's Shares</a></b>Individual stocks fell by more than 15% month-on-month. Since late October, the price of live pigs has been declining continuously. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the price of live pigs (external three yuan) in mid-December was 18.2 yuan/kg, a new low in the second half of this year, down 17.3% from early December.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ddc3c9ccc90112546473a4247948146\" tg-width=\"892\" tg-height=\"804\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Two major liquor leaders received funds from the north</b></p><p><b>Net inflow exceeds 3 billion yuan</b></p><p>According to data statistics, a total of 35 shares were listed on the active list of capital transactions in the north this week; In terms of industries, electrical equipment, food and beverage stocks were actively traded this week, with a total transaction volume of more than 10 billion yuan. Food and beverage and non-bank financial stocks led the net inflow, while electrical equipment and electronics stocks were reduced by northbound funds.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">Wuliangye</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a></b>The two major liquor leaders occupy the first and second places in the net purchase amount of actively traded stocks, respectively, with a cumulative net inflow of 2.127 billion yuan and 1.305 billion yuan in a week, respectively, and these two stocks have received net inflow of funds from the north for six consecutive trading days.</p><p>Since November, the liquor index has been rising continuously, with a cumulative increase of 34.7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000686\">Northeast Securities</a>It is believed that the liquor sector will show a good growth trend in 2022, and the valuation of core liquor companies will gradually fall from the high level at the beginning of the year. Looking forward to next year, the development model of high-end liquor volume and price increase is clear, and the performance is certain. The pace of investment expansion of sub-high-end liquor is accelerating, and channel power and brand power have become the key to success.</p><p>Top five net inflows this week<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002603\">Yiling Pharmaceutical</a></b>It is also worth noting that the stock fell by 20.03% in a week, and northbound funds increased their positions against the market, with a net inflow of 948 million yuan.</p><p><b>Yiling Pharmaceutical</b>It was announced on Thursday that the company has never announced the \"Lianhua Qingwen Epidemic Prevention Prescription\" as listed in the article; We reserve the right to pursue the relevant legal responsibilities of the infringer who makes and spreads rumors. The formula of \"Lianhua Qingwen\" is an invention patent of the company, which is different from the \"formula\" listed in the article in medicinal flavor composition, prescription amount and preparation process.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b22014fe0cd68b83f4a50293f942b68\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"964\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to data statistics, according to the increase in positions, there are 24 shares with a month-on-month increase of more than 100% in the number of shares held this week; Excluding the sub-new shares listed this year, the largest month-on-month increase is<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002307\">Beixinluqiao</a></b>, Beishang Capital recently held 563,900 shares, and the number of shares held increased by 907.76% from the previous month. Followed by<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688690\">Nanotechnology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/605399\">Chenguang New Materials</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002424\">Guizhou Bailing</a></b>, increasing by 271.52%, 259.25%, and 258.99% respectively.</p><p>21 shares were significantly reduced by northbound funds, and their shareholdings all fell by more than 50% month-on-month.<b>Dongfang Electric Heating, Xingyuan Environment, Calabash Baby</b>The shareholdings of Beishang Capital fell by 85.4%, 85.19%, and 76.43% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baeeba082b85a98dfaecc62e293890b2\" tg-width=\"724\" tg-height=\"994\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Disclaimer: All information contents of Databao do not constitute investment advice. The stock market is risky, so investment should be cautious.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8642475395bb363eacb86148917e7b","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154178439","content_text":"北上资金逆市加仓，美容护理、通信、食品饮料行业成“香饽饽”。A股市场本周震荡下跌，上证指数跌破60日均线，一周累计跌3.85%；深证成指累计跌3.94%，创业板指累计跌3.69%。市场下跌的同时北上资金反向加仓。证券时报·数据宝统计，本周北上资金净流入43.53亿元；其中沪市明显优于深市，沪股通净流入49.2亿元，深股通净流出5.66亿元。生猪价格下跌产业链个股遭北上资金减持数据宝统计，共10个行业获得北上资金持股量增长，美容护理、通信、食品饮料行业加仓较多，持股数量周环比增幅超过1%。部分周期行业遭到北上资金连续减持，煤炭、化工、公用事业、电力设备等9个行业近三周持股量连续下降，其中农林牧渔减仓幅度最多，持股量累计下降6.92%。美容护理行业本周获得北上资金的青睐，持股量增长4.46%。本周美容护理行业表现亦跑赢大盘，行业指数微跌0.2%，可靠股份、贝泰妮、爱美客、中顺洁柔一周累计涨幅居前，均超过3%。中顺洁柔本周获北上资金持股量增长超500万股，居行业中增长首位，环比上周增长10.57%。公司近期发布股票激励计划（草案）摘要，目标2023-2025年营业收入分别不低于100亿元、110亿元、121亿元，相比2021年分别增长9.29%、20.22%、32.24%，彰显公司对未来发展的信心。东海证券研报认为，展望2023年，在疫情政策“新十条”的催化下，叠加未来趋势性的疫情优化预期，认为将迎来行业基本面的复苏，化妆品国货龙头有望崛起，国产替代加速；医美线下消费场景恢复，细分赛道快速发展，龙头企业有望迎来业绩修复。农林牧渔近期遭到北上资金减持，其中猪产业相关个股持股量环比降幅较多，包括神农集团、唐人神、天康生物、正邦科技、温氏股份等个股环比降幅在15%以上。自10月下旬开始，生猪价格连续下降。根据国家统计局数据，12月中旬生猪（外三元）价格为18.2元/千克，创今年下半年新低，环比12月上旬下跌17.3%。两大白酒龙头获北上资金净流入超30亿元数据宝统计，本周共有35股登上北上资金成交活跃榜；所属行业来看，电气设备、食品饮料股本周资金成交活跃，合计买卖总额在100亿元以上。食品饮料、非银金融股净流入居前，电气设备、电子股则遭到北上资金减持。五粮液、贵州茅台两大白酒龙头分别占据成交活跃股净买入金额的第一位、第二位，一周累计净流入金额分别为21.27亿元、13.05亿元，且这2股均已连续6个交易日获北上资金净流入。11月以来，白酒指数已连续上涨，累计涨幅达34.7%。东北证券认为，2022年白酒板块呈现出良好增长态势，核心酒企估值从年初高位逐渐回落。展望明年，高端白酒量稳价升的发展模式清晰，业绩确定性强。次高端白酒招商扩张步伐加快，渠道力和品牌力成为制胜关键。本周净流入前五的以岭药业亦值得关注，该股一周下跌20.03%，北上资金逆市加仓，净流入达到9.48亿元。以岭药业周四发布消息，公司从未公布如文章所列“连花清瘟防疫方”；保留追究侵权人制造、传播谣言的人相关法律责任的权利。“连花清瘟”配方系公司发明专利，该配方与文章所列“配方”在药味组成、处方量和制备工艺都不同。数据宝统计，增仓幅度来看，本周持股数环比增幅在100%以上的共有24股；剔除今年上市的次新股，环比增幅最大的是北新路桥，北上资金最新持有56.39万股，持股数环比增长了907.76 %。其次是纳微科技、晨光新材、贵州百灵，分别增长271.52%、259.25%、258.99%。21股遭北上资金大幅减持，持股量环比降幅均在50%以上，东方电热、兴源环境、葫芦娃的北上资金持股量分别下降85.4%、85.19%、76.43%。声明：数据宝所有资讯内容不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2899,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929525583,"gmtCreate":1670712319142,"gmtModify":1676538419804,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090574021972690","authorIdStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929525583","repostId":"1135427428","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135427428","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1670641879,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1135427428?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-10 11:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Fed dove ≠ U.S. stocks rise? The market is beginning to worry about a recession storm","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135427428","media":"智通财经网","summary":"有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。过去两个月里，投资者无视各种警告——从40年来最严重的美债收益率曲线倒挂，到2022年油","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Persistent warnings that the U.S. economy is slipping into recession have finally touched a nerve on Wall Street. Persistent warnings that the U.S. economy is slipping into recession have finally touched a nerve on Wall Street. In the past two months, investors have ignored all kinds of warnings-from the worst U.S. bond yield curve inversion in 40 years to the collapse of a sharp rise in oil prices in 2022; But investors now appear to be betting that the biggest threat to risky assets is an impending slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>Cyclical stocks sent the S&P 500 down 3.4% this week after it failed to stay above its average price over the past 200 days. Although optimism that the Federal Reserve will slow down the pace of rate hike has pushed U.S. stocks up 14% since mid-October, investor sentiment has now become gloomy. They are worried that if the Federal Reserve really slows down the pace of rate hike, it will signal that the U.S. economy is in a downturn.</p><p>There are already signs that U.S. economic growth is slowing amid aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve. The U.S. service sector shrank last month; While the labor market remains strong, there has been some weakness, with a recent increase in initial claims for unemployment benefits. Meanwhile, inflation may have peaked, but is still high enough to keep the Fed on its toes, raising the risk of excessive tightening.</p><p>Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, said: \"We will move from'bad data is good news' to'bad data is bad news' because it is a signal that the economy is moving faster and worse than most people expect. speed weakening.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c916ab1d72ccba5e0bd166e03aeef039\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Markets have begun to see a stream of dismal economic news as bad news rather than as reason for upside from the prospect of Fed policy easing. At the same time, inflation in the United States remains high-as evidenced by the higher-than-expected growth rate of PPI in the United States in November. Taken together, this is enough to suppress the rally since the fall.</p><p>Energy stocks have led the decline since stocks peaked on the last day of November, unlike the previous three sell-offs in 2022, when rising inflation spurred share prices for raw material producers. More economically sensitive companies, such as financial firms and consumer goods manufacturers, lagged in December.</p><p>The shift is also evident in the fixed income space. Earlier in 2022, when inflation scares raged, bonds plunged in all three instances when the S&P 500 fell at least 10% from its peak. Now, bonds have begun to regain their position as a recession hedge. Long-term U.S. Treasury Bond prices rose on Wednesday, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield falling below 3.5%, its lowest level since September last year. The iShares 20 + Year U.S. Treasury Bond ETF has gained 9% in the past three weeks.</p><p>Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said: \"If you're buying stocks based on the idea that interest rates will be cut sometime in the future, unfortunately that means economic weakness will also come sometime in the future. So when you make a wish, be careful.\"</p><p>In recent days, this message has been backed by executives at major Wall Street banks, whose CEOs have been unanimously pessimistic about the outlook for U.S. economic growth and corporate earnings. Even sell-side analysts, who tend to tout the assets they sell, have been predicting a declining 2023 in a decidedly pessimistic manner. The average forecast of strategists tracked by the media is that the S&P 500 will close at 4,009 next year, their most pessimistic forecast since at least 1999.</p><p>Positions and trading patterns also show that investors are moving away from risky assets. Investors pulled out of global stocks at the fastest pace in five months, selling $35 billion in the past three weeks after they had hoarded $23 billion a week ago, according to EPFR data. The signal of volatility amplitude also reinforces the transient nature of the recent rally, reflecting the situation before the end of the rally in March and August.</p><p>The level of technical indicators that stimulated buying in November fell back this week. The S&P 500 failed to hold above its 200-day moving average before falling below pullback/retracement levels that helped bulls.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0366d1ab17554afa57bf8480fcf4ca9\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Further complicating matters, November's stock market rally triggered the fastest easing of financial conditions since March 2020, according to an indicator from Goldman Sachs Group Inc., casting doubt on the Fed's ability to pivot accommodative policy starting next year.</p><p>After being trapped by the intensity and staying power of inflationary pressures, Fed policymakers appear determined to peak rate hike to around 5%. That's bad news for an economy that will contract sometime next year.</p><p>Justin Burgin, head of equity research at Ameriprise Financial, said: \"There is still a lot of pain to go through. We hardly see the lag effect of this fastest rate hike in history.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed dove ≠ U.S. stocks rise? The market is beginning to worry about a recession storm</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed dove ≠ U.S. stocks rise? The market is beginning to worry about a recession storm\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-10 11:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Persistent warnings that the U.S. economy is slipping into recession have finally touched a nerve on Wall Street. Persistent warnings that the U.S. economy is slipping into recession have finally touched a nerve on Wall Street. In the past two months, investors have ignored all kinds of warnings-from the worst U.S. bond yield curve inversion in 40 years to the collapse of a sharp rise in oil prices in 2022; But investors now appear to be betting that the biggest threat to risky assets is an impending slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>Cyclical stocks sent the S&P 500 down 3.4% this week after it failed to stay above its average price over the past 200 days. Although optimism that the Federal Reserve will slow down the pace of rate hike has pushed U.S. stocks up 14% since mid-October, investor sentiment has now become gloomy. They are worried that if the Federal Reserve really slows down the pace of rate hike, it will signal that the U.S. economy is in a downturn.</p><p>There are already signs that U.S. economic growth is slowing amid aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve. The U.S. service sector shrank last month; While the labor market remains strong, there has been some weakness, with a recent increase in initial claims for unemployment benefits. Meanwhile, inflation may have peaked, but is still high enough to keep the Fed on its toes, raising the risk of excessive tightening.</p><p>Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, said: \"We will move from'bad data is good news' to'bad data is bad news' because it is a signal that the economy is moving faster and worse than most people expect. speed weakening.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c916ab1d72ccba5e0bd166e03aeef039\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Markets have begun to see a stream of dismal economic news as bad news rather than as reason for upside from the prospect of Fed policy easing. At the same time, inflation in the United States remains high-as evidenced by the higher-than-expected growth rate of PPI in the United States in November. Taken together, this is enough to suppress the rally since the fall.</p><p>Energy stocks have led the decline since stocks peaked on the last day of November, unlike the previous three sell-offs in 2022, when rising inflation spurred share prices for raw material producers. More economically sensitive companies, such as financial firms and consumer goods manufacturers, lagged in December.</p><p>The shift is also evident in the fixed income space. Earlier in 2022, when inflation scares raged, bonds plunged in all three instances when the S&P 500 fell at least 10% from its peak. Now, bonds have begun to regain their position as a recession hedge. Long-term U.S. Treasury Bond prices rose on Wednesday, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield falling below 3.5%, its lowest level since September last year. The iShares 20 + Year U.S. Treasury Bond ETF has gained 9% in the past three weeks.</p><p>Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said: \"If you're buying stocks based on the idea that interest rates will be cut sometime in the future, unfortunately that means economic weakness will also come sometime in the future. So when you make a wish, be careful.\"</p><p>In recent days, this message has been backed by executives at major Wall Street banks, whose CEOs have been unanimously pessimistic about the outlook for U.S. economic growth and corporate earnings. Even sell-side analysts, who tend to tout the assets they sell, have been predicting a declining 2023 in a decidedly pessimistic manner. The average forecast of strategists tracked by the media is that the S&P 500 will close at 4,009 next year, their most pessimistic forecast since at least 1999.</p><p>Positions and trading patterns also show that investors are moving away from risky assets. Investors pulled out of global stocks at the fastest pace in five months, selling $35 billion in the past three weeks after they had hoarded $23 billion a week ago, according to EPFR data. The signal of volatility amplitude also reinforces the transient nature of the recent rally, reflecting the situation before the end of the rally in March and August.</p><p>The level of technical indicators that stimulated buying in November fell back this week. The S&P 500 failed to hold above its 200-day moving average before falling below pullback/retracement levels that helped bulls.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0366d1ab17554afa57bf8480fcf4ca9\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Further complicating matters, November's stock market rally triggered the fastest easing of financial conditions since March 2020, according to an indicator from Goldman Sachs Group Inc., casting doubt on the Fed's ability to pivot accommodative policy starting next year.</p><p>After being trapped by the intensity and staying power of inflationary pressures, Fed policymakers appear determined to peak rate hike to around 5%. That's bad news for an economy that will contract sometime next year.</p><p>Justin Burgin, head of equity research at Ameriprise Financial, said: \"There is still a lot of pain to go through. We hardly see the lag effect of this fastest rate hike in history.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/845337.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e90f0093c95026e18203fb8d91b976d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/845337.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1135427428","content_text":"有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。过去两个月里，投资者无视各种警告——从40年来最严重的美债收益率曲线倒挂，到2022年油价大幅上涨的破灭;但投资者现在似乎开始押注风险资产面临的最大威胁是经济增长即将放缓。周期性股票导致标普500指数本周下跌3.4%，此前该指数未能维持在过去200天的平均价格之上。尽管自10月中旬以来，对美联储将放慢加息步伐的乐观情绪曾推动美国股市上涨14%，但投资者的情绪现在已经变得阴沉起来，他们担心美联储果真放慢加息步伐，将标志着美国经济陷入低迷。已经有迹象表明，在美联储激进的紧缩政策下，美国经济增长正在放缓。美国服务业上月出现萎缩;尽管劳动力市场依然强劲，但也出现了一些疲软，最近首续请失业金人数增加。与此同时，通胀可能已经见顶，但仍高到足以让美联储保持警惕，增加了过度紧缩的风险。Academy Securities宏观策略主管Peter Tchir表示:“我们将从‘坏数据就是好消息’转变成‘坏数据就是坏消息’，因为这是一个信号，表明经济正在以比大多数人预期的更快、更糟的速度走弱。”市场已经开始将一连串令人沮丧的经济消息视为坏消息，而不是将其视为美联储放宽政策前景带来的上涨理由。与此同时，美国通胀依然居高不下——美国11月PPI增速超预期就是明证。综合来看，这足以打压秋季以来的涨势。自股市在11月最后一天见顶以来，能源股领跌，这与2022年的前三次抛售不同，当时通胀加剧刺激了对原材料生产商的股价。对经济更为敏感的公司，如金融公司和消费品制造商，在12月份的表现较为滞后。这种转变在固定收益领域也很明显。在2022年早些时候，当通胀恐慌肆虐时，标普500指数从峰值下跌至少10%的三次情况中，债券都出现了暴跌。现在，债券已经开始恢复其作为经济衰退对冲的地位。周三，长期美国国债价格上涨，30年期美国国债收益率跌至3.5%以下，这是去年9月以来的最低水平。iShares 20年期以上美国国债ETF在过去三周上涨了9%。Interactive Brokers首席策略师Steve Sosnick表示:“如果你是基于未来某个时候会降息的想法来购买股票，不幸的是，这意味着经济疲软也会在未来某个时候到来。所以你许愿的时候一定要小心。”最近几天，这一信息得到了华尔街大行高管的支持，华尔街大行的首席执行官们一致对美国经济增长和企业盈利前景持悲观态度。即使是倾向于吹捧自己销售的资产的卖方分析师，也一直在明显悲观地预测，2023年将出现下跌。媒体追踪的策略师的平均预测是，标普500指数明年将收于4009点，这是他们至少自1999年以来最悲观的预测。仓位和交易模式也显示出投资者正在远离风险资产。EPFR的数据显示，投资者以五个月来最快的速度撤出全球股市，在过去三周抛售了350亿美元，而一周前他们还囤积了230亿美元。波动幅度的信号也强化了近期涨势的短暂性，反映了如3月和8月涨势结束前的情况。11月曾刺激买盘的技术指标水平本周出现回落。标普500指数未能守住200日移动均线上方，随后跌穿为多头提供帮助的回撤水平。让事情进一步复杂化的是，根据高盛集团的一项指标，11月的股市上涨引发了自2020年3月以来金融状况最快的宽松，这让人们对美联储从明年开始转向宽松政策的能力产生了怀疑。在被通胀压力的强度和持久力所困后，美联储政策制定者似乎决心将加息到5%左右的峰值。这对于明年某个时候将出现收缩的经济来说是个坏消息。Ameriprise Financial股票研究主管Justin Burgin表示:“还有很多痛苦要经历。我们几乎没有看到这次历史上最快加息的滞后效应。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965291211,"gmtCreate":1669953843433,"gmtModify":1676538277653,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090574021972690","authorIdStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965291211","repostId":"2288839109","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288839109","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1669930251,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288839109?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-02 05:30","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Foreign media headlines | U.S. core PCE still far exceeds the Fed's target, and there is little hope of a soft landing","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288839109","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"　　10月美国一项基准通胀指标——核心PCE同比上涨5%，同比升幅6%，仍远高于美联储2%的目标，美联储通胀降温但经济不衰退的希望仍然渺茫。美联储主席鲍威尔本周强调，核心PCE是他认为更能准确反映通胀走向的指标。　　在截至11月19日当周，美国持续申领失业救济人数增加5.7万人，至160万人，为一年来最大增幅。　　美国商务部周四发布的数据显示，10月份个人储蓄占可支配收入之比降至2.3%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. The U.S. core PCE far exceeds the Fed's 2% target, and the hope of a soft landing is still slim</b><b>2. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States has risen to the highest since February, making it more difficult to re-find employment</b><b>3. The U.S. savings rate fell to the lowest level since 2005 in October, continued inflation and Fed rate hike hit a double blow</b><b>4. Chicago Fed appoints former US Obama administration adviser Goolsbee as its new president</b><b>5. Credit Suisse's stock price hit the longest losing streak in history and has fallen 66% this year</b><b>6. UK house prices fall more than expected, mortgage interest rates soar, curbing demand</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b26f4dcea8cd92793b55e49bafa9f8d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>U.S. core PCE far exceeds Fed's 2% target, hope of soft landing remains slim</b></p><p>In October, the core PCE, a benchmark inflation indicator in the United States, rose 5% year-on-year and 6% year-on-year, still far higher than the Fed's 2% target. The hope of the Fed's inflation cooling but the economy not declining is still slim.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Thursday showed that the personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) excluding food and energy increased by 0.2% in October compared with October, a lower-than-expected increase. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized this week that the core PCE is what he believes is an indicator that more accurately reflects the direction of inflation.</p><p>Core PCE rose 5% year-on-year, and the increase in September was revised upward to 5.2%.</p><p>The overall PCE rose 0.3% month-on-month and 6% year-on-year for the third consecutive month, still well above the Fed's 2% target.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bd89a1ca05a83b77f9ce74a93c3892\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>U.S. unemployment claims continue to rise to the highest since February, making it more difficult to re-find jobs</b></p><p>The number of people claiming continuing unemployment benefits in the United States rose to the highest level since February, indicating that unemployed Americans are struggling to find new jobs in a cooling labor market.</p><p>In the week ending November 19, the number of continuing U.S. claims for unemployment benefits increased by 57,000 to 1.6 million, the largest increase in a year.</p><p>Data from the U.S. Labor Department on Thursday showed that initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 16,000 to 225,000 in the week ending Nov. 26. The median estimate for economists polled by Bloomberg was 235,000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee6f67b8dab72d003d6a36b4735a6092\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>U.S. savings rate fell to lowest level since 2005 in October, double whammy of persistent inflation and Fed rate hike</b></p><p>Americans are saving at their lowest rate since 2005, highlighting that inflation and rising borrowing costs are weakening households' financial buffers.</p><p>Data released Thursday by the U.S. Commerce Department showed that personal savings as a percentage of disposable income fell to 2.3% in October. The report also showed that inflation-adjusted spending remained strong despite a slight cooling in inflation.</p><p>With the double whammy of persistent inflation and the Federal Reserve's rate hike, it is difficult for U.S. consumer spending to fall. Most representatively, credit card consumption increased, and the year-on-year increase in U.S. household debt in the third quarter reached the highest since 2008.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d525cc42899299aa4b8612a0f9436181\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Chicago Fed names former Obama administration adviser Goolsbee as new president</b></p><p>The Chicago Fed has appointed Austan Goolsbee, an economist who served as an adviser to former President Barack Obama, as its new president. The current president Evans will retire in January next year.</p><p>The Chicago Fed said in an email statement on Thursday that Goolsbee, 53, will take office on January 9th. He is currently a professor of economics at the Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago. Goolsby was once the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers of the United States and the youngest cabinet member of President Barack Obama's cabinet.</p><p>Evans has been at the helm of the Chicago Fed for 15 years, and for most of his tenure, he has been one of the Fed's most dovish policymakers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25334e85cba6df35ddcc81c2f9c1e561\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Credit Suisse shares hit longest losing streak in history, down 66% this year</b></p><p>Credit Suisse Group's share price fell for the 13th consecutive day, setting the longest losing streak in history. The Swiss bank is in deep trouble. After years of scandals and mismanagement, the capital raising plan has further impacted its share price.</p><p>Credit Suisse closed down 6.1% on Thursday to a record low of $3.08. Since November 23rd, the share price has dropped by about 21%, when the bank said that its key wealth management business suffered a large outflow of funds, and said that it might suffer another major loss in the fourth quarter, reaching 1.5 billion Swiss francs (1.6 billion US dollars).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a348a366bc39d591cfb5fb19987fb1ac\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>UK house prices fall more than expected, soaring mortgage rates dampen demand</b></p><p>British mortgage lender Nationwide Building Society said that after soaring borrowing costs curbed demand, UK house prices fell more than expected, and the fastest decline since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>UK house prices fell 1.4% in November, the agency said. It was the second drop in months and the biggest since June 2020. Excluding the pandemic period, UK house prices have not fallen so sharply since the global financial crisis more than 10 years ago. Economists had expected a 0.4% decline.</p><p>The cost of home loans has soared to more than 6pc in recent weeks from about 1pc a year ago on the back of an increase in the Bank of England's benchmark lending rate and investor concerns about slowing economic growth and rising government debt. While costs for borrowers have pulled back from their peaks, they are still likely to be well above what buyers have seen for much of the past decade.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign media headlines | U.S. core PCE still far exceeds the Fed's target, and there is little hope of a soft landing</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign media headlines | U.S. core PCE still far exceeds the Fed's target, and there is little hope of a soft landing\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-02 05:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. The U.S. core PCE far exceeds the Fed's 2% target, and the hope of a soft landing is still slim</b><b>2. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States has risen to the highest since February, making it more difficult to re-find employment</b><b>3. The U.S. savings rate fell to the lowest level since 2005 in October, continued inflation and Fed rate hike hit a double blow</b><b>4. Chicago Fed appoints former US Obama administration adviser Goolsbee as its new president</b><b>5. Credit Suisse's stock price hit the longest losing streak in history and has fallen 66% this year</b><b>6. UK house prices fall more than expected, mortgage interest rates soar, curbing demand</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b26f4dcea8cd92793b55e49bafa9f8d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>U.S. core PCE far exceeds Fed's 2% target, hope of soft landing remains slim</b></p><p>In October, the core PCE, a benchmark inflation indicator in the United States, rose 5% year-on-year and 6% year-on-year, still far higher than the Fed's 2% target. The hope of the Fed's inflation cooling but the economy not declining is still slim.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Thursday showed that the personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) excluding food and energy increased by 0.2% in October compared with October, a lower-than-expected increase. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized this week that the core PCE is what he believes is an indicator that more accurately reflects the direction of inflation.</p><p>Core PCE rose 5% year-on-year, and the increase in September was revised upward to 5.2%.</p><p>The overall PCE rose 0.3% month-on-month and 6% year-on-year for the third consecutive month, still well above the Fed's 2% target.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bd89a1ca05a83b77f9ce74a93c3892\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>U.S. unemployment claims continue to rise to the highest since February, making it more difficult to re-find jobs</b></p><p>The number of people claiming continuing unemployment benefits in the United States rose to the highest level since February, indicating that unemployed Americans are struggling to find new jobs in a cooling labor market.</p><p>In the week ending November 19, the number of continuing U.S. claims for unemployment benefits increased by 57,000 to 1.6 million, the largest increase in a year.</p><p>Data from the U.S. Labor Department on Thursday showed that initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 16,000 to 225,000 in the week ending Nov. 26. The median estimate for economists polled by Bloomberg was 235,000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee6f67b8dab72d003d6a36b4735a6092\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>U.S. savings rate fell to lowest level since 2005 in October, double whammy of persistent inflation and Fed rate hike</b></p><p>Americans are saving at their lowest rate since 2005, highlighting that inflation and rising borrowing costs are weakening households' financial buffers.</p><p>Data released Thursday by the U.S. Commerce Department showed that personal savings as a percentage of disposable income fell to 2.3% in October. The report also showed that inflation-adjusted spending remained strong despite a slight cooling in inflation.</p><p>With the double whammy of persistent inflation and the Federal Reserve's rate hike, it is difficult for U.S. consumer spending to fall. Most representatively, credit card consumption increased, and the year-on-year increase in U.S. household debt in the third quarter reached the highest since 2008.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d525cc42899299aa4b8612a0f9436181\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Chicago Fed names former Obama administration adviser Goolsbee as new president</b></p><p>The Chicago Fed has appointed Austan Goolsbee, an economist who served as an adviser to former President Barack Obama, as its new president. The current president Evans will retire in January next year.</p><p>The Chicago Fed said in an email statement on Thursday that Goolsbee, 53, will take office on January 9th. He is currently a professor of economics at the Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago. Goolsby was once the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers of the United States and the youngest cabinet member of President Barack Obama's cabinet.</p><p>Evans has been at the helm of the Chicago Fed for 15 years, and for most of his tenure, he has been one of the Fed's most dovish policymakers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25334e85cba6df35ddcc81c2f9c1e561\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Credit Suisse shares hit longest losing streak in history, down 66% this year</b></p><p>Credit Suisse Group's share price fell for the 13th consecutive day, setting the longest losing streak in history. The Swiss bank is in deep trouble. After years of scandals and mismanagement, the capital raising plan has further impacted its share price.</p><p>Credit Suisse closed down 6.1% on Thursday to a record low of $3.08. Since November 23rd, the share price has dropped by about 21%, when the bank said that its key wealth management business suffered a large outflow of funds, and said that it might suffer another major loss in the fourth quarter, reaching 1.5 billion Swiss francs (1.6 billion US dollars).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a348a366bc39d591cfb5fb19987fb1ac\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>UK house prices fall more than expected, soaring mortgage rates dampen demand</b></p><p>British mortgage lender Nationwide Building Society said that after soaring borrowing costs curbed demand, UK house prices fell more than expected, and the fastest decline since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>UK house prices fell 1.4% in November, the agency said. It was the second drop in months and the biggest since June 2020. Excluding the pandemic period, UK house prices have not fallen so sharply since the global financial crisis more than 10 years ago. Economists had expected a 0.4% decline.</p><p>The cost of home loans has soared to more than 6pc in recent weeks from about 1pc a year ago on the back of an increase in the Bank of England's benchmark lending rate and investor concerns about slowing economic growth and rising government debt. While costs for borrowers have pulled back from their peaks, they are still likely to be well above what buyers have seen for much of the past decade.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-12-02/doc-imqmmthc6739501.shtml\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b26f4dcea8cd92793b55e49bafa9f8d","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-12-02/doc-imqmmthc6739501.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288839109","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：　　 1、美国核心PCE远超美联储2%目标 软着陆的希望仍然渺茫       2、美国持续申领失业救济人数升至2月份以来最高 重新就业难度加大       3、美国10月份储蓄率降至2005年以来最低水平 持续通胀和联储加息双重打击       4、芝加哥联储任命美国前奥巴马政府顾问古尔斯比为新行长　　 5、瑞信股价创史上最长连跌纪录 今年以来已下跌66%　　 6、英国房价降幅超出预期 按揭贷款利率飙升抑制需求美国核心PCE远超美联储2%目标 软着陆的希望仍然渺茫10月美国一项基准通胀指标——核心PCE同比上涨5%，同比升幅6%，仍远高于美联储2%的目标，美联储通胀降温但经济不衰退的希望仍然渺茫。美国商务部周四公布的数据显示，10月不包括食品和能源的个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）较10月增长0.2%，升幅低于预期。美联储主席鲍威尔本周强调，核心PCE是他认为更能准确反映通胀走向的指标。核心PCE同比上涨5%，9月升幅上修至5.2%。整体PCE连续第三个月环比上升0.3%，同比升幅6%，仍远高于美联储2%的目标。美国持续申领失业救济人数升至2月份以来最高 重新就业难度加大美国持续申领失业救济的人数升至2月份以来的最高水平，表明失业的美国人在逐渐降温的劳动力市场上找到新工作的难度加大。在截至11月19日当周，美国持续申领失业救济人数增加5.7万人，至160万人，为一年来最大增幅。美国劳工部周四的数据显示，在截至11月26日当周，首次申领失业救济人数减少1.6万人，至22.5万人。接受彭博调查的经济学家的预估中值为23.5万人。美国10月份储蓄率降至2005年以来最低水平 持续通胀和联储加息双重打击美国人储蓄率创2005年以来最低水平，凸显出通胀和借贷成本上升正在削弱家庭的财务缓冲能力。美国商务部周四发布的数据显示，10月份个人储蓄占可支配收入之比降至2.3%。报告还显示，尽管通胀略有降温，但经通胀调整的支出仍然强劲。在持续通胀和美联储加息的双重打击下，美国消费支出很难下降。最具代表性的是，信用卡消费增多，第三季度美国居民债务的同比升幅达到2008年以来最高。芝加哥联储任命美国前奥巴马政府顾问古尔斯比为新行长芝加哥联储任命曾为前总统奥巴马担任顾问的经济学家奥斯坦·古尔斯比（Austan Goolsbee）为新行长，现行长埃文斯将于明年1月退休。芝加哥联储周四在一份电邮声明中表示，现年53岁的古尔斯比将于1月9日履任，他目前是芝加哥大学布斯商学院经济学教授。古尔斯比曾经是美国经济顾问委员会主席，并且是美国总统奥巴马内阁中最年轻的内阁成员。埃文斯执掌芝加哥联储15年，在任内的大部分时间里，他一直是美联储最鸽派的决策者之一。瑞信股价创史上最长连跌纪录 今年以来已下跌66%瑞信集团股价连续第13天走低，创出有史以来最长连跌纪录，这家瑞士银行深陷困境，在持续多年的丑闻和管理不善后，资本募集计划对其股价构成进一步的冲击。瑞信周四收盘下跌6.1%，至3.08美元的纪录新低。11月23日以来，股价下跌了大约21%，当时该行称，其关键性的理财业务遭遇大量资金外流，并称第四季度可能会再次蒙受重大亏损，达到15亿瑞郎（16亿美元）。英国房价降幅超出预期 按揭贷款利率飙升抑制需求英国按揭贷款机构Nationwide Building Society表示，在借贷成本飙升抑制需求之后，英国房价跌幅超过预期，而且是新冠疫情爆发以来的最快跌速。该机构称，英国11月房价下跌1.4%。这是数月来的第二次下跌，也是2020年6月以来的最大跌幅。不包括疫情时期，英国房价自10多年前全球金融危机以来从未出现过如此大幅的下跌。经济学家此前预期为下滑0.4%。受英国央行上调基准贷款利率以及投资者对经济增长放缓和政府债务上升的担忧影响，住房贷款成本最近几周从一年前的约1%飙升至6%以上。虽然借款人的成本已较峰值回落，但仍可能远高于买家过去十年大部分时间内的水平。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"SDS":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,".SPX":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,"SDOW":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"QID":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"NQmain":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2413,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963772495,"gmtCreate":1668775578718,"gmtModify":1676538111904,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090574021972690","authorIdStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963772495","repostId":"2284728958","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2284728958","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"创业与投资专业门户","home_visible":1,"media_name":"投资界","id":"1096839439","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2531123ee54a22588d693ba65ab705b3"},"pubTimestamp":1668766250,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2284728958?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-18 18:10","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Masayoshi Son announces farewell","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2284728958","media":"投资界","summary":"“这将是我最后一次在财务业绩会上发言。”在最新软银集团财季报告的舞台上，孙正义郑重宣布以后不再出席软银的财报会议，并将集团的日常管理工作移交给CFO后藤芳光（Yoshimitsu Goto）等高管。这","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>“<b>This will be the last time I will speak at the financial results meeting</b>。”</p><p>On the stage of the latest SoftBank Group quarterly report, Masayoshi Son solemnly announced that he would no longer attend SoftBank's financial report meeting in the future, and handed over the daily management of the group to CFO Yoshimitsu Goto and other executives. This is the first time in his history at the helm of SoftBank.</p><p>The aggressive investment style made LP feel mixed, and Son Zhengyi chose to turn around<b>Put your heart and soul into chip company ARM</b>。 This time, it can be said that this investment madman's first step towards retirement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69620816bf719ccb798938c41983bac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Masayoshi Son is undoubtedly one of the most topical legends in the history of venture capital. Born in a small village in Japan in 1957, after witnessing several family changes, the young Masayoshi Son vowed to \"make a big career and become Japan's number one entrepreneur\" and set himself at the age of 19. Life plan for the next 50 years</p><p>Started a business at the age of 20, earned one billion dollars at the age of 30, became the number one at the age of 40, earned tens of billions at the age of 50, and retired at the age of 60.</p><p>As Masayoshi Son wished, the first half of his life was stirring by founding SoftBank and creating a huge capital empire, especially more than 20 years ago<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The \"6-minute investment\" has been able to save SoftBank from fire and water so far. What failed was that Masayoshi Son has not yet been able to fully retire. This year's situation is more difficult than expected, with ups and downs for half a life. At the age of 65, he seems to have had the intention of quitting.</p><p><b>Masayoshi Son presided over the financial report meeting for the last time:</b></p><p><b>Selling Ali, Softbank finally doesn't lose money</b></p><p>This is the last time we will see Masayoshi Son in this form.</p><p>On November 11, SoftBank Group announced its report for the first half of its fiscal year (April). On the whole, SoftBank gained a net sales of 3.2 trillion yen, an investment loss of 849.6 billion yen (about 43 billion yuan) and a net loss of 129.1 billion yen in the first half of fiscal year 2022, a loss of about RMB 6.6 billion.</p><p>You read it correctly, it is indeed 6.6 billion. This small amount of money can be said to be not worth mentioning in front of the huge SoftBank. We will talk about the reasons in detail later.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17a9afbf5120644e228405e9567be93\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The \"culprit\" of SoftBank's losses is still the sharp decline in the stock prices/valuations of the investment portfolios in the three funds of Vision Fund SVF1, SVF2 and LatAm Funds, including the American food delivery company Doordash, the Southeast Asian online ride-hailing company GoTo, and the Korean version of \"Alibaba\" Coupang, Keike House Search, Wework, SenseTime, etc.</p><p>\"Judging from the current situation, whether it is the primary market or the secondary market, almost all investments we have made have not performed well.\" Masayoshi Son bluntly said at the latest financial report meeting, \"<b>Listed and unlisted stocks are close to annihilation, and Vision Fund has taken a clear hit</b>”。 From July to September alone, the investment loss of SoftBank Vision Fund reached nearly US $10 billion, and in the first half of the fiscal year, it caused a total investment loss of 4.4 trillion yen, or approximately RMB 220 billion.</p><p>However, the huge hole created by SoftBank Vision Fund was filled by Ali. Looking at the breakdown, in the first fiscal quarter (46 months), SoftBank recorded a net loss of 3.16 trillion yen (about 160 billion yuan), the highest loss in recent years; In the second fiscal quarter of July, it reversed and achieved a net profit of 3.03 trillion yen (about 153 billion yuan).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4acb011a2d43a79547802b2a5a856dc0\" tg-width=\"809\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>This is SoftBank's first profit in three quarters. \"The main source of the huge gains is Alibaba, and we signed prepaid forward contracts using Alibaba shares.\" SoftBank Group CFO Yoshimitsu Goto revealed at the earnings conference. The financial report shows that in August 2022, SoftBank implemented the early physical settlement of 242 million Alibaba shares corresponding to the prepaid forward contract, thereby recovering more than 270 billion yuan.</p><p>So far, Alibaba's share of SoftBank's assets has dropped to 14.6%, and its volume is still not small. I can't help but sigh. I didn't expect that the investment that was decided after only six minutes of meeting more than 20 years ago would bring such unimaginable returns to Masayoshi Son and Softbank in the future.</p><p>At present, the volatility of technology stocks is still in progress, which has forced SoftBank to contract across the board and is further reducing investment. For example, the total investment of SVF1 in the same period last fiscal year was still 17.8 billion yuan, but this year it was only 1.8 billion yuan. This scene is even more tragic in the second phase of the Vision Fund. During the VF2 period, a total of 16 billion yuan was invested, compared with 139.5 billion yuan in the same period of the previous fiscal year, which can be called \"knee cut\".</p><p>These are difficult times for global private equity investing. In order to effectively alleviate the situation, Goto Yoshimitsu said that SoftBank Vision Fund will lay off 30% of its employees. However, such \"explosive\" news didn't arouse too much splash. Perhaps everyone has become accustomed to this situation this year.</p><p><b>Say goodbye to investment, Masayoshi Son devotes himself to ARM</b></p><p>Standing on the stage of the last financial report conference, Masayoshi Son seemed a little emotional, almost all telling his story with ARM. This is regarded by him as the origin of his life.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4eb36042ebfa27bac1c8ca3caf6f6d59\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It was the autumn of 1976, and 19-year-old Masayoshi Son was studying abroad in the United States. One day, while reading a science magazine on the sidewalk, he accidentally saw a \"mysterious photo of a futuristic city that looks like a geometric pattern\" of a microcomputer chip. Turning to the next page, he was deeply shocked that it turned out to be a microcomputer chip the size of a fingertip and less than 1cm in diameter.</p><p>\"I know what a computer is and what a computer program is, but I didn't know that it all came from such small parts.\" After reading that magazine, Masayoshi Son couldn't help but cry. He felt that he had discovered something that might surpass human intellectual activity for the first time. Looking back on those days, he said, \"I am very touched, because humans are probably the smartest people on earth, and they have created something beyond human intelligence.\"</p><p>Forty-five years have passed since that day, but microcomputers are far from mature and are still developing in a big bang. Masayoshi Son saw that in the long history of human beings for tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of years, the information revolution has spread rapidly in just 50 years, and we have now reached a situation where we can't live without smart phones.</p><p>\"At the same time, the core of the CPU has been transferred from Intel to ARM, and ARM's position as the most efficient architecture will become more and more stable. That's how I understand it.\" He judged, \"When everything is being digitized, ARM's stage will be bigger.\"</p><p>Recalling the first time he saw the photo of the microcomputer chip, Masayoshi Son decided to devote his life to the information revolution. Now, he will return to that \"origin\", which is also his future direction</p><p>“<b>Over the next few years, I want to work on the next phase of ARM's explosive growth</b>。” Masayoshi Son said at the opening of the press conference, \"This makes me feel excited and happy. ARM and related businesses will be SoftBank's biggest growth point in the future.\"</p><p>Speaking of ARM, this is another big gamble in Masayoshi Son's investment history. In 2016, SoftBank Group at the helm of Masayoshi Son acquired British chip giant ARM for US $31 billion in cash. In order to win ARM and raise funds for the acquisition, SoftBank sold a number of high-quality assets, including Alibaba, at that time, and even borrowed heavily at all costs. Such a big move shocked the entire chip industry. Masayoshi Son once again demonstrated his adventurous spirit, which made his peers shudder, and was called a \"desperate gamble\" by the outside world.</p><p>ARM was originally a trump card in Masayoshi Son's hands. When SoftBank was mired in a quagmire, it once hoped to sell it for US $60 billion. Earlier this year,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>Originally planned to acquire ARM for US $40 billion, the largest deal in the history of the chip industry fell through because regulators failed to approve it.</p><p>Since then, SoftBank has started preparations for ARM's independent IPO, but it is still unclear where the IPO will be so far. At this financial report meeting, SoftBank IR and ARM Vice President Ian Thornton revealed, \"We hope ARM will go public as soon as possible, but given the current global economic uncertainty, ARM's IPO is unlikely to happen before the end of March 2023. Preparations are currently Going well, or an IPO sometime in 2023.\"</p><p>“<b>From the beginning, ARM was the last asset we wanted to sell if SoftBank wasn't in crisis</b>。 Especially recently, I realized once again how great ARM is and its future growth opportunities are huge. \" In the past few months, Masayoshi Son has been thinking repeatedly, \"How can we make the best use of ARM, and what kind of interesting services and technologies can we make? Thinking about all this, I am convinced of these great technological innovations No doubt.\"</p><p><b>The rivers and lakes are gone, and a generation of investment madmen let go</b></p><p>This year should be the fiercest year for Masayoshi Son's ideological struggle.</p><p>The world in front of us is full of risks, and venture capital institutions around the world are experiencing different degrees of tension. In this situation, Masayoshi Son is also constantly thinking about where SoftBank should go? Should the Vision Fund continue to invest? Or should we reduce debt and lower the debt ratio and have more cash to drive the business more securely?</p><p>\"We had several heated discussions internally, and I figured it out later myself.\" Son said at the earnings conference. \"The conclusion is that we won't be able to see inflation subside during this period.<b>SoftBank Must Be In Defensive Mode And Stay That Direction All Time</b>。”</p><p>I still remember the young Masayoshi Son who was inspired and shed tears when he read Ryoma Sakamoto, who \"left the vassal\" in pursuit of his dream in the historical book Ryoma Comes. \"You are not a mediocre person buried in the grass. Go out and do something big. As long as you think it is right, you will do it resolutely.\"</p><p>In the future, this plot always appeared in his mind and became the source of spiritual motivation for many of his difficult decisions. \"At first, it was just dreams and baseless self-confidence, but it all started here,\" Masayoshi Son once said.</p><p>To a certain extent, this also contributed to Masayoshi Son's staggering and tough investment style. Over the years, SoftBank and Vision Fund, which he is in charge of, have played impressively in the primary market. They use cash to change the rules of the game. They are willing to give high valuations, dare to give high valuations, and invest in their opponents' rolling style of play, no one can beat it.</p><p>During this period, Masayoshi Son seemed to only give himself two ways, either to make a lot of money or lose money, spending time and energy on explosive projects. This style of play has also won Masayoshi Son a super unicorn that is almost famous in the world, and he is full of anger. However, throughout its investment history, except for<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo!</a>In addition to the battle with Alibaba, most of the projects in his hands have brought him a series of troubles and losses, such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WE\">WeWork</a>, OYO, Uber... and the unicorns that collapse after building.</p><p>Behind the magical scene, SoftBank began to reflect and decided to restrain investment for a long time.<b>Masayoshi Son, 65, also made changes, breaking his decades-old routine</b>Say goodbye to the SoftBank earnings report stage that has been led and hosted by him, and keep a low profile.</p><p>In previous years, Masayoshi Son would talk about his eclectic investment philosophy through financial reporting activities, and the outside world can also get a glimpse of this venture capitalist's investment attitude from his historical paintings or abstract pictures. Masayoshi Son has expressed his desire for capital and his expectation of how science and technology can improve human happiness on this stage more than once, sometimes absurd and sometimes full of poetry.</p><p>However, after that, he will no longer host the financial report conference in this form, but may only make some brief comments, and hand over these daily affairs to several other deputies such as Goto Yoshimitsu. \"Goto is better on defense than I am,\" Son said at his last earnings conference. \"<b>I'm an aggressive person, not a defensive one</b>。”</p><p>Perhaps worried that the outside world was too focused on his retirement, Masayoshi Son did not forget to add, \"<b>I am in good health, healthy and energetic</b>\", and said\" I will continue to be at shareholder meetings, and when something unpredictable happens, I will come back at any time. \"</p><p>In the torrent, the mythical years belonging to this venture capital empire began to fade away, and that eccentric, radical and adventurous investment madman gradually disappeared from the spotlight. Times have really changed.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Masayoshi Son announces farewell</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMasayoshi Son announces farewell\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1096839439\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/2531123ee54a22588d693ba65ab705b3);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">投资界 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-18 18:10</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>“<b>This will be the last time I will speak at the financial results meeting</b>。”</p><p>On the stage of the latest SoftBank Group quarterly report, Masayoshi Son solemnly announced that he would no longer attend SoftBank's financial report meeting in the future, and handed over the daily management of the group to CFO Yoshimitsu Goto and other executives. This is the first time in his history at the helm of SoftBank.</p><p>The aggressive investment style made LP feel mixed, and Son Zhengyi chose to turn around<b>Put your heart and soul into chip company ARM</b>。 This time, it can be said that this investment madman's first step towards retirement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69620816bf719ccb798938c41983bac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Masayoshi Son is undoubtedly one of the most topical legends in the history of venture capital. Born in a small village in Japan in 1957, after witnessing several family changes, the young Masayoshi Son vowed to \"make a big career and become Japan's number one entrepreneur\" and set himself at the age of 19. Life plan for the next 50 years</p><p>Started a business at the age of 20, earned one billion dollars at the age of 30, became the number one at the age of 40, earned tens of billions at the age of 50, and retired at the age of 60.</p><p>As Masayoshi Son wished, the first half of his life was stirring by founding SoftBank and creating a huge capital empire, especially more than 20 years ago<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The \"6-minute investment\" has been able to save SoftBank from fire and water so far. What failed was that Masayoshi Son has not yet been able to fully retire. This year's situation is more difficult than expected, with ups and downs for half a life. At the age of 65, he seems to have had the intention of quitting.</p><p><b>Masayoshi Son presided over the financial report meeting for the last time:</b></p><p><b>Selling Ali, Softbank finally doesn't lose money</b></p><p>This is the last time we will see Masayoshi Son in this form.</p><p>On November 11, SoftBank Group announced its report for the first half of its fiscal year (April). On the whole, SoftBank gained a net sales of 3.2 trillion yen, an investment loss of 849.6 billion yen (about 43 billion yuan) and a net loss of 129.1 billion yen in the first half of fiscal year 2022, a loss of about RMB 6.6 billion.</p><p>You read it correctly, it is indeed 6.6 billion. This small amount of money can be said to be not worth mentioning in front of the huge SoftBank. We will talk about the reasons in detail later.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17a9afbf5120644e228405e9567be93\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The \"culprit\" of SoftBank's losses is still the sharp decline in the stock prices/valuations of the investment portfolios in the three funds of Vision Fund SVF1, SVF2 and LatAm Funds, including the American food delivery company Doordash, the Southeast Asian online ride-hailing company GoTo, and the Korean version of \"Alibaba\" Coupang, Keike House Search, Wework, SenseTime, etc.</p><p>\"Judging from the current situation, whether it is the primary market or the secondary market, almost all investments we have made have not performed well.\" Masayoshi Son bluntly said at the latest financial report meeting, \"<b>Listed and unlisted stocks are close to annihilation, and Vision Fund has taken a clear hit</b>”。 From July to September alone, the investment loss of SoftBank Vision Fund reached nearly US $10 billion, and in the first half of the fiscal year, it caused a total investment loss of 4.4 trillion yen, or approximately RMB 220 billion.</p><p>However, the huge hole created by SoftBank Vision Fund was filled by Ali. Looking at the breakdown, in the first fiscal quarter (46 months), SoftBank recorded a net loss of 3.16 trillion yen (about 160 billion yuan), the highest loss in recent years; In the second fiscal quarter of July, it reversed and achieved a net profit of 3.03 trillion yen (about 153 billion yuan).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4acb011a2d43a79547802b2a5a856dc0\" tg-width=\"809\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>This is SoftBank's first profit in three quarters. \"The main source of the huge gains is Alibaba, and we signed prepaid forward contracts using Alibaba shares.\" SoftBank Group CFO Yoshimitsu Goto revealed at the earnings conference. The financial report shows that in August 2022, SoftBank implemented the early physical settlement of 242 million Alibaba shares corresponding to the prepaid forward contract, thereby recovering more than 270 billion yuan.</p><p>So far, Alibaba's share of SoftBank's assets has dropped to 14.6%, and its volume is still not small. I can't help but sigh. I didn't expect that the investment that was decided after only six minutes of meeting more than 20 years ago would bring such unimaginable returns to Masayoshi Son and Softbank in the future.</p><p>At present, the volatility of technology stocks is still in progress, which has forced SoftBank to contract across the board and is further reducing investment. For example, the total investment of SVF1 in the same period last fiscal year was still 17.8 billion yuan, but this year it was only 1.8 billion yuan. This scene is even more tragic in the second phase of the Vision Fund. During the VF2 period, a total of 16 billion yuan was invested, compared with 139.5 billion yuan in the same period of the previous fiscal year, which can be called \"knee cut\".</p><p>These are difficult times for global private equity investing. In order to effectively alleviate the situation, Goto Yoshimitsu said that SoftBank Vision Fund will lay off 30% of its employees. However, such \"explosive\" news didn't arouse too much splash. Perhaps everyone has become accustomed to this situation this year.</p><p><b>Say goodbye to investment, Masayoshi Son devotes himself to ARM</b></p><p>Standing on the stage of the last financial report conference, Masayoshi Son seemed a little emotional, almost all telling his story with ARM. This is regarded by him as the origin of his life.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4eb36042ebfa27bac1c8ca3caf6f6d59\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It was the autumn of 1976, and 19-year-old Masayoshi Son was studying abroad in the United States. One day, while reading a science magazine on the sidewalk, he accidentally saw a \"mysterious photo of a futuristic city that looks like a geometric pattern\" of a microcomputer chip. Turning to the next page, he was deeply shocked that it turned out to be a microcomputer chip the size of a fingertip and less than 1cm in diameter.</p><p>\"I know what a computer is and what a computer program is, but I didn't know that it all came from such small parts.\" After reading that magazine, Masayoshi Son couldn't help but cry. He felt that he had discovered something that might surpass human intellectual activity for the first time. Looking back on those days, he said, \"I am very touched, because humans are probably the smartest people on earth, and they have created something beyond human intelligence.\"</p><p>Forty-five years have passed since that day, but microcomputers are far from mature and are still developing in a big bang. Masayoshi Son saw that in the long history of human beings for tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of years, the information revolution has spread rapidly in just 50 years, and we have now reached a situation where we can't live without smart phones.</p><p>\"At the same time, the core of the CPU has been transferred from Intel to ARM, and ARM's position as the most efficient architecture will become more and more stable. That's how I understand it.\" He judged, \"When everything is being digitized, ARM's stage will be bigger.\"</p><p>Recalling the first time he saw the photo of the microcomputer chip, Masayoshi Son decided to devote his life to the information revolution. Now, he will return to that \"origin\", which is also his future direction</p><p>“<b>Over the next few years, I want to work on the next phase of ARM's explosive growth</b>。” Masayoshi Son said at the opening of the press conference, \"This makes me feel excited and happy. ARM and related businesses will be SoftBank's biggest growth point in the future.\"</p><p>Speaking of ARM, this is another big gamble in Masayoshi Son's investment history. In 2016, SoftBank Group at the helm of Masayoshi Son acquired British chip giant ARM for US $31 billion in cash. In order to win ARM and raise funds for the acquisition, SoftBank sold a number of high-quality assets, including Alibaba, at that time, and even borrowed heavily at all costs. Such a big move shocked the entire chip industry. Masayoshi Son once again demonstrated his adventurous spirit, which made his peers shudder, and was called a \"desperate gamble\" by the outside world.</p><p>ARM was originally a trump card in Masayoshi Son's hands. When SoftBank was mired in a quagmire, it once hoped to sell it for US $60 billion. Earlier this year,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>Originally planned to acquire ARM for US $40 billion, the largest deal in the history of the chip industry fell through because regulators failed to approve it.</p><p>Since then, SoftBank has started preparations for ARM's independent IPO, but it is still unclear where the IPO will be so far. At this financial report meeting, SoftBank IR and ARM Vice President Ian Thornton revealed, \"We hope ARM will go public as soon as possible, but given the current global economic uncertainty, ARM's IPO is unlikely to happen before the end of March 2023. Preparations are currently Going well, or an IPO sometime in 2023.\"</p><p>“<b>From the beginning, ARM was the last asset we wanted to sell if SoftBank wasn't in crisis</b>。 Especially recently, I realized once again how great ARM is and its future growth opportunities are huge. \" In the past few months, Masayoshi Son has been thinking repeatedly, \"How can we make the best use of ARM, and what kind of interesting services and technologies can we make? Thinking about all this, I am convinced of these great technological innovations No doubt.\"</p><p><b>The rivers and lakes are gone, and a generation of investment madmen let go</b></p><p>This year should be the fiercest year for Masayoshi Son's ideological struggle.</p><p>The world in front of us is full of risks, and venture capital institutions around the world are experiencing different degrees of tension. In this situation, Masayoshi Son is also constantly thinking about where SoftBank should go? Should the Vision Fund continue to invest? Or should we reduce debt and lower the debt ratio and have more cash to drive the business more securely?</p><p>\"We had several heated discussions internally, and I figured it out later myself.\" Son said at the earnings conference. \"The conclusion is that we won't be able to see inflation subside during this period.<b>SoftBank Must Be In Defensive Mode And Stay That Direction All Time</b>。”</p><p>I still remember the young Masayoshi Son who was inspired and shed tears when he read Ryoma Sakamoto, who \"left the vassal\" in pursuit of his dream in the historical book Ryoma Comes. \"You are not a mediocre person buried in the grass. Go out and do something big. As long as you think it is right, you will do it resolutely.\"</p><p>In the future, this plot always appeared in his mind and became the source of spiritual motivation for many of his difficult decisions. \"At first, it was just dreams and baseless self-confidence, but it all started here,\" Masayoshi Son once said.</p><p>To a certain extent, this also contributed to Masayoshi Son's staggering and tough investment style. Over the years, SoftBank and Vision Fund, which he is in charge of, have played impressively in the primary market. They use cash to change the rules of the game. They are willing to give high valuations, dare to give high valuations, and invest in their opponents' rolling style of play, no one can beat it.</p><p>During this period, Masayoshi Son seemed to only give himself two ways, either to make a lot of money or lose money, spending time and energy on explosive projects. This style of play has also won Masayoshi Son a super unicorn that is almost famous in the world, and he is full of anger. However, throughout its investment history, except for<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo!</a>In addition to the battle with Alibaba, most of the projects in his hands have brought him a series of troubles and losses, such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WE\">WeWork</a>, OYO, Uber... and the unicorns that collapse after building.</p><p>Behind the magical scene, SoftBank began to reflect and decided to restrain investment for a long time.<b>Masayoshi Son, 65, also made changes, breaking his decades-old routine</b>Say goodbye to the SoftBank earnings report stage that has been led and hosted by him, and keep a low profile.</p><p>In previous years, Masayoshi Son would talk about his eclectic investment philosophy through financial reporting activities, and the outside world can also get a glimpse of this venture capitalist's investment attitude from his historical paintings or abstract pictures. Masayoshi Son has expressed his desire for capital and his expectation of how science and technology can improve human happiness on this stage more than once, sometimes absurd and sometimes full of poetry.</p><p>However, after that, he will no longer host the financial report conference in this form, but may only make some brief comments, and hand over these daily affairs to several other deputies such as Goto Yoshimitsu. \"Goto is better on defense than I am,\" Son said at his last earnings conference. \"<b>I'm an aggressive person, not a defensive one</b>。”</p><p>Perhaps worried that the outside world was too focused on his retirement, Masayoshi Son did not forget to add, \"<b>I am in good health, healthy and energetic</b>\", and said\" I will continue to be at shareholder meetings, and when something unpredictable happens, I will come back at any time. \"</p><p>In the torrent, the mythical years belonging to this venture capital empire began to fade away, and that eccentric, radical and adventurous investment madman gradually disappeared from the spotlight. Times have really changed.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acb77b88f0e1500dd735d82182c9d65c","relate_stocks":{"SFTBY":"软银集团"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2284728958","content_text":"“这将是我最后一次在财务业绩会上发言。”在最新软银集团财季报告的舞台上，孙正义郑重宣布以后不再出席软银的财报会议，并将集团的日常管理工作移交给CFO后藤芳光（Yoshimitsu Goto）等高管。这是他执掌软银历史以来的第一次。激进的投资风格让LP心情复杂，孙正义选择转身将全身心投入到芯片公司ARM中。这一次，可以说是这位投资狂人迈向退休的第一步。孙正义，无疑是风投史上最具话题的传奇人物之一。1957年出生于日本一个小村庄，在目睹了几次家庭变故后，年纪轻轻的孙正义发誓“闯出一番大事业，成为日本第一企业家”，并在19岁那年为自己定下未来50年的人生规划20岁开始创业，30岁赚够十亿美元，40岁成为第一，50岁赚到百亿美元，60岁退休。如孙正义所愿，他的前半生因创办软银缔造了一个庞大的资本帝国而荡气回肠，尤其是20多年前对阿里巴巴的“6分钟投资”，至今都能救软银于水火之中。未能如愿的是，孙正义至今尚未能完全退休。今年的情况比想象中更艰难，浮沉半生，65岁的他似乎已经萌生了退意。孙正义最后一次主持财报会：卖阿里，软银终于不亏了这是我们最后一次以这样的形式见到孙正义。11月11日，软银集团公布了上半财年（49月）报告。综合来说，软银在2022财年上半年收获了3.2万亿日元的净销售额、投资损失8496亿日元（约合人民币430亿元）以及1291亿日元的净亏损，亏了约合人民币66亿元。你没看错，确实是66亿，这笔小钱在庞大的软银面前可以说不值一提，原因我们后面细细说来。软银亏损的“罪魁祸首”依然是愿景基金SVF1、SVF2以及LatAm Funds三支基金中投资组合的股价/估值急剧下降，包括了美国外卖公司Doordash 、东南亚网约车公司 GoTo 、韩国版“阿里巴巴”Coupang、贝壳找房、Wework、商汤科技等等。“从目前的情况来看，无论是一级市场还是二级市场，我们所做的几乎所有投资都没有好的表现。”孙正义在最新财报会上直言，“上市股和未上市股接近全军覆没，愿景基金也明显受到打击”。仅在7-9月，软银愿景基金的投资亏损就已近100亿美元，而整个上半财年其共造成了4.4万亿日元的投资损失，约合人民币2200亿元。不过软银愿景基金所酿造的巨大窟窿，被阿里补上了。拆分来看，在第一财季（46月），软银录得净亏损3.16万亿日元（约合人民币1600亿元），创下近年亏损之最；79月的第二财季却逆转实现了净利润3.03万亿日元（约合人民币1530亿元）。这是软银三个季度以来首次盈利。“巨额收益的主要来源是阿里巴巴，我们使用阿里巴巴股份签署了预付远期合约。”软银集团CFO后藤芳光在财报会议上透露。财报显示，在2022 年89月，软银实施了预付远期合约对应2.42亿股阿里巴巴股票的提前实物结算，以此收回了超超2700亿元人民币。至此，阿里巴巴在软银资产中的占比下降至14.6%，体量依然不小。不禁令人感叹，没想到二十多年前那次只见面六分钟就拍板的一笔投资，日后给孙正义和软银带来的回报会如此超乎想象。眼下科技股震荡仍在进行中，这迫使软银全面收缩，正进一步减少投资。如SVF1上一财年同期投资总额还是178亿元人民币，但到了今年仅为18亿元人民币。这一幕在愿景基金二期上显得更为惨烈VF2期内共投资160亿元人民币，上一财年同期的数字是1395亿元人民币，堪称“膝盖斩”。这是全球私募股权投资的艰难时刻。为有效缓解局面，后藤芳光表示，软银愿景基金将裁员30%。然而，这样“爆炸性”的消息却没有激起太多水花，也许今年大家对这样的境况已经习以为常。告别投资，孙正义投身于ARM站在最后一场财报发布会舞台上，孙正义显得有些感性，几乎都在讲述他与ARM的故事。这被他视作人生的原点。那是1976年的秋天，19岁的孙正义正在美国留学深造，一天在人行道上看科学杂志时，他无意间看到一张微型计算机芯片的“看起来像几何图案的未来城市的神秘照片”。翻到下一页，他被深深地震撼住了竟然是一块指尖大小、直径不到1厘米的微电脑芯片。“我知道计算机是什么，也知道计算机程序是什么，但我却不知道这些都来自于这么小的零件。”看完那篇杂志，孙正义控制不住地哭泣，他觉得自己第一次发现了可能超越人类智力活动的东西。回顾那些日子，他说：“我很感动，因为人类可能是地球上最聪明的人，他们又创造了超过人类智慧的东西。”现在距离那天已经过去了45年，但微型计算机远未成熟，且还在大爆炸式发展。孙正义看到，在人类几万年、几十万年的历史长河中，信息革命在短短50年时间里迅速蔓延，我们现在已经到了离不开智能手机的境地。“与此同时，CPU的核心已经从Intel转移到了ARM，ARM拥有最高效架构的地位将越来越稳固。我就是这么理解的。”他判断，“当所有都在被数字化，ARM的舞台将会更大。”回想起第一次看到那张微电脑芯片的照片时，孙正义就决定把自己的一生奉献给信息革命。而现在，他将回到那个“原点”，也是他未来的方向“在接下来的几年里，我想致力于ARM下一阶段的爆炸性增长。”孙正义在发布会开场时表示，“这是让我感到兴奋和快乐的，ARM和与之相关的业务将会是软银未来最大的增长点。”说起ARM，这也是孙正义投资史上的又一次豪赌。2016年，孙正义掌舵的软银集团以310亿美元的价格现金收购了英国芯片巨头ARM。为了拿下ARM、筹集收购的资金，软银更是在当时抛售了包括阿里巴巴在内的多项优质资产，甚至还不惜代价地大举借债。如此大手笔，震动了整个芯片行业，孙正义再一次彰显了他的冒险精神，令同行不寒而栗，被外界称为一场“绝命豪赌”。ARM本是孙正义手上的一张王牌，在软银深陷泥潭时，一度希望以600亿美金出手卖掉。今年年初，英伟达原本计划以400亿美金收购ARM，但因监管机构均未能批准，这项芯片行业有史以来规模最大的交易落空。此后，软银启动了ARM独立IPO的准备工作，但截止目前在哪里IPO还尚不明朗。这次财报会议上，软银IR、ARM副总裁Ian Thornton透露，“我们希望ARM尽快上市，但鉴于当前全球经济的不确定性，ARM的IPO不太可能在2023年3月底之前发生。目前筹备工作进展顺利，或在2023年的某个时间进行IPO。”“从一开始，如果不是软银身处危机，ARM是我们最不想出售的资产。尤其是最近，我再次意识到ARM是多么伟大，它未来的成长机会是巨大的。”过去几个月，孙正义一直反复思考，“我们如何才能最佳地利用ARM，又能做出什么样的有趣的服务、有趣的技术？想想这一切，我对这些伟大的技术创新深信不疑。”江湖远去，一代投资狂人放手今年应该是孙正义做思想斗争最猛烈的一年。眼前的世界风险重重，全球的风投机构都在经历着不同程度的紧张局面。此情此景，孙正义也在不停歇地思考着软银该走向何处？愿景基金要不要再继续投资？又或者，是否应该减少债务并降低债务比率，拥有更多现金以更安全地推动业务？“我们内部进行了几次激烈的讨论，后来我自己也想通了。”在财报会上，孙正义说，“结论是，我们将无法在此期间看到通货膨胀的平息，软银必须处于防御模式，并一直保持这个方向。”犹记得那个在读到历史著作《龙马来了》中为了追求梦想而“脱藩”的坂本龙马时，备受鼓舞而落泪的少年孙正义。“你不是埋在草野里的庸才，出去闯荡做一番大事业吧，只要自己认为是对的，就毅然决然地去做。”日后，这个情节总是在他的脑海中显现，成为他诸多艰难决策的精神动力之源。“最初拥有的只是梦想和毫无根据的自信而已，但是所有的一切都从这里开始。”孙正义曾说。一定程度上，这也促就了孙正义令人咋舌的彪悍投资风格。多年来，他所执掌的软银和愿景基金在一级市场的打法令人印象深刻用现金改变游戏规则，肯给高估值，敢给高估值，标的不给投就投其对手的碾压式打法，无人能敌。这段时期里，孙正义仿佛只给自己两条路要么大赚，要么赔掉，把时间和精力花在爆款项目上。这样的打法也为孙正义收揽了全球几乎叫得上名号的超级独角兽，赌气十足。然而，纵观其投资历史，除了雅虎和阿里巴巴使其一战封神之外，他手中的绝大多数项目都给他带来了一系列麻烦和亏损，如WeWork、OYO、Uber......还有一个个起高楼后崩塌的独角兽们。魔幻的一幕幕后，软银开始反省并决定长期克制投资，65岁的孙正义也做出改变，他打破了其几十年来的惯例告别一直由他领导主持的软银收益报告舞台，保持低调。往年里，孙正义会通过财报活动来谈论其不拘一格的投资理念，外界也能从他所投放的历史画作或抽象图片中一窥这位风投狂人的投资态度，而孙正义也不止一次地在这个舞台上表达对资本的欲望，以及科技如何改善人类幸福的期盼，时而荒诞，时而又充满诗意。但此后，他将不再以这种形式主持财报发布会，仅可能会做一些简短点评，并将这些日常事务移交给了后藤芳光等其他几名副手。“后藤比我更适合防守，”孙正义在他最后一次财报发布会上说，“我是一个好斗的人，而不是防守的人。”也许担心外界过于聚焦他的退隐，孙正义还不忘补充一句，“我身体状况良好，健康且精力充沛”，并表示“我会继续在股东大会，当有不可预测的事情发生时，我会随时回来。”洪流之中，属于这家风投帝国的神话岁月开始远去，而那个古怪的、激进的、爱冒险的投资狂人也渐渐消失于聚光灯下时代真的变了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SFTBY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2826,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963186839,"gmtCreate":1668633734222,"gmtModify":1676538085948,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090574021972690","authorIdStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963186839","repostId":"2284622784","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9981437287,"gmtCreate":1666579389949,"gmtModify":1676537770844,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090574021972690","authorIdStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😶","listText":"😶","text":"😶","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9981437287","repostId":"1103231812","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103231812","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1666577035,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1103231812?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-24 10:03","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Hang Seng Technology Index fell more than 5%, and technology stocks continued to fall","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103231812","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"10月24日，港股持续走低，恒生指数跌超4%，恒生科技指数跌超5%；科技股持续下跌，腾讯控股、美团-W、京东集团-SW、百度集团-SW、哔哩哔哩-W跌超7%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On October 24, Hong Kong stocks continued to fall, the Hang Seng Index fell by more than 4%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by more than 5%; Tech stocks continue to fall,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">Jingdong Group-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">Baidu Group-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">Bilibili-W</a>Fell more than 7%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/042f67b8a19334d3574563519098cabf\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hang Seng Technology Index fell more than 5%, and technology stocks continued to fall</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHang Seng Technology Index fell more than 5%, and technology stocks continued to fall\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-10-24 10:03</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On October 24, Hong Kong stocks continued to fall, the Hang Seng Index fell by more than 4%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by more than 5%; Tech stocks continue to fall,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">Jingdong Group-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">Baidu Group-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">Bilibili-W</a>Fell more than 7%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/042f67b8a19334d3574563519098cabf\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","03086":"华夏纳指","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103231812","content_text":"10月24日，港股持续走低，恒生指数跌超4%，恒生科技指数跌超5%；科技股持续下跌，腾讯控股、美团-W、京东集团-SW、百度集团-SW、哔哩哔哩-W跌超7%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QNETCN":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,"TTTN":0.9,"03086":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2455,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9983374177,"gmtCreate":1666166480799,"gmtModify":1676537716937,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090574021972690","authorIdStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9983374177","repostId":"9983378637","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9983378637,"gmtCreate":1666165888830,"gmtModify":1676537716744,"author":{"id":"9000000000000644","authorId":"9000000000000644","name":"CrystalRose","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25ded438897391c2e32edc77a343fe21","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000644","authorIdStr":"9000000000000644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"These were the Bank drawdowns during the Global Fin crisis (2008-09). Imagine these Banks and their stocks surviving (and coming back great lengths) despite such huge drawdowns and the financial collapse. This is not 2008-09 so things may not get as bad, I think. Unless of course there is a global Bond market implosion.History repetes.. if you been in the markets for 50 years like me... upgrades starting to hit new wires. BAC&nbsp;$40 upgrades.. going head 36 to 38 next few days","listText":"These were the Bank drawdowns during the Global Fin crisis (2008-09). Imagine these Banks and their stocks surviving (and coming back great lengths) despite such huge drawdowns and the financial collapse. This is not 2008-09 so things may not get as bad, I think. Unless of course there is a global Bond market implosion.History repetes.. if you been in the markets for 50 years like me... upgrades starting to hit new wires. BAC&nbsp;$40 upgrades.. going head 36 to 38 next few days","text":"These were the Bank drawdowns during the Global Fin crisis (2008-09). Imagine these Banks and their stocks surviving (and coming back great lengths) despite such huge drawdowns and the financial collapse. This is not 2008-09 so things may not get as bad, I think. Unless of course there is a global Bond market implosion.History repetes.. if you been in the markets for 50 years like me... upgrades starting to hit new wires. BAC $40 upgrades.. going head 36 to 38 next few days","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9983378637","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2058,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9989451858,"gmtCreate":1666066329974,"gmtModify":1676537700323,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090574021972690","authorIdStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9989451858","repostId":"1182942032","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1182942032","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1666060939,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182942032?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-18 10:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The market is betting on the Fed's early interest rate cut. Is it wise to buy the bottom in advance?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182942032","media":"第一财经","summary":"纽约联储模型显示，明年衰退概率逼近疫情峰值。对于衰退的担忧正使投资者对于未来的政策路径的判断与美联储之间产生偏离。市场开始押注，美联储为应对物价压力将前置加息，随后提前“投降”降息。芝商所（CME）利","content":"<p><div>The New York Fed model shows that the probability of a recession next year is approaching the peak of the epidemic. Recession fears are diverting investors' judgments on the future policy path from the Fed's. The market began to bet that the Federal Reserve would advance rate hike in response to price pressures, and then \"surrender\" to cut interest rates ahead of schedule. The CME group (CME) Interest Rate Watch Tool (FedWatch) shows that the median interest rate of this round of the Federal Reserve will reach 4.95% in May next year, and the interest rate range at the end of the year may return below 4.50%-4.75%. Behind the recent market pulse, the capital game is becoming increasingly fierce. The Federal Reserve (Source: Xinhua Photo) ahead of...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101564762.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The market is betting on the Fed's early interest rate cut. Is it wise to buy the bottom in advance?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe market is betting on the Fed's early interest rate cut. Is it wise to buy the bottom in advance?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-18 10:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>The New York Fed model shows that the probability of a recession next year is approaching the peak of the epidemic. Recession fears are diverting investors' judgments on the future policy path from the Fed's. The market began to bet that the Federal Reserve would advance rate hike in response to price pressures, and then \"surrender\" to cut interest rates ahead of schedule. The CME group (CME) Interest Rate Watch Tool (FedWatch) shows that the median interest rate of this round of the Federal Reserve will reach 4.95% in May next year, and the interest rate range at the end of the year may return below 4.50%-4.75%. Behind the recent market pulse, the capital game is becoming increasingly fierce. The Federal Reserve (Source: Xinhua Photo) ahead of...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101564762.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101564762.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb5398fed733ffbbc94ab1b9a49946a8","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101564762.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182942032","content_text":"纽约联储模型显示，明年衰退概率逼近疫情峰值。对于衰退的担忧正使投资者对于未来的政策路径的判断与美联储之间产生偏离。市场开始押注，美联储为应对物价压力将前置加息，随后提前“投降”降息。芝商所（CME）利率观察工具（FedWatch）显示，本轮美联储利率中值将在明年5月达到4.95%，年末利率区间或回到4.50%-4.75%以下。近期市场脉冲行情背后，资金博弈日趋白热化。美联储（来源：新华社图）提前抄底是否明智花旗认为，股市短期将继续面临更多下行压力。标普500指数预期市盈率已从年初的近22倍降至16倍左右，但仍高于2007-2009年金融危机期间的10倍左右。“现在是大多数公司遇到过的最困难的宏观预测环境之一。”摩根士丹利资管投资组合经理斯莱蒙（Andrew Slimmon）表示，通常情况下，标普500指数35%的企业股息收益率高于2年期国债，目前这一比例现在要小得多，约为11%。斯莱蒙表示，在2年期美债收益率高于4%的情况下，美股反击很难取得很大进展。“除非收益率曲线的短端压力有所缓解，否则我看不到股市会走出像样的行情。”Refinitiv调查（来源：Refinitiv）据Refinitiv Lipper的统计，在诸多不确定性环境下，传统股票基金已连续35周出现资金净流出。与此同时，美银全球基金经理月度调查显示，机构将其平均现金余额增至20多年来的最高水平。随着财报季展开，商业活动降温对企业运营的影响正在展开，目前市场预计标普500指数成份股三季度净利润增长为4.6%，较7月初大幅下修，考虑到包括半导体、零售等行业多家公司近期发布业绩预警，未来的数据可能会进一步调降。不过近期多次出现的脉冲行情也给了投资者希望。不少观点认为，随着美联储加息步伐有望放缓，风险偏好回归有望迎来市场修复行情。另一方面，从目前的盈利预期看，三季度有望成为近两年业绩的低点。历史数据显示，一旦市场走出熊市，袖手旁观最终可能会付出代价。富国银行一项研究发现，如果投资者错过了过去30年中20个涨幅最大的交易日，他们的年平均回报率将从每年7.8%降至3.2%。 高盛指出，在美股触底后，指数短期往往会迎来强劲的上涨。自1980年以来，标普500指数在所经历的八次熊市出现低谷后的一个月内，平均回报率为16%。财富管理公司Stifel首席股票策略师班尼斯特（Barry Bannister）预计，标准普尔500指数正在触底，市场在今年第四季度至2023年初之间将出现积极的催化剂。“在年末最后两次美联储会议期间，我们确实看到了政策立场微妙变化的可能性，这将使投资者更加关注（改善）通胀数据，而不是政策本身。另一方面，季节性因素不容忽视，从11月到次年4月，美股的历史表现历来强劲。”报告写道。利率期货显示明年降息美股正在努力摆脱熊市的泥潭，经济前景和美联储政策预期依然短期风险偏好的最大敌人。为了遏制高涨的通胀压力，美联储已经采取了上世纪80年代以来最激进的货币政策，但收效甚微。作为其评估未来通胀趋势的关键指标，美国9月核心CPI意外升至6.6%，刷新年内新高。拐点预期被进一步推后，分项指标中，上月医疗费用同比增长6%，为1993年以来的最大增幅，住房租金增长7.2%，为1982年以来新高，食品价格同比增长13%，比肩上世纪70年代。短暂回落的能源价格近期也止跌回升，OPEC+减产决定令美国燃料油价格一周上涨近6%。美联储官员近期在公开表态中频频强调实现长期通胀目标的决心，严峻的形势也让外界上调了对本轮联邦基金利率终点的判断。巴克莱预计美联储可能会加息至5.00-5.25%，德意志银行美国经济学家魏德纳（Justin Weidner）认为，考虑到美联储加强了控制通胀的承诺，利率峰值将达到4.75%-5.00%。然而加息周期下的经济放缓压力正在增加，同时购物者消费预期受到了影响。随着年末假日季来临，Adobe Analytics表示，今年全美在线假日销售额预计将达到2097亿美元，同比增长2.5%，创2012年以来新低，远不及去年8.6%的增速。资产管理机构BK Asset Management宏观策略师施罗斯伯格（Boris Schlossberg）在接受第一财经采访时表示，从目前的情况看，劳动力市场很健康，保障了经济的活力，但购买力下滑的影响将进一步显现。从零售数据看，去除物价因素后支出增长仅为0.1%，通胀似乎变得根深蒂固。美联储需要将利率提高到什么水平才能达到价格稳定的目的，现在谁也没有确定的答案。另一方面，货币政策收紧的影响还会波及信用卡消费。施罗斯伯格向记者分析道，随着政府财政支持的资金逐渐消耗，美国民众的私人储蓄率再次回到低位，不少人开始被迫通过信用卡维持开销，利率上升产生的利息压力将进一步限制这些群体的消费选择，给经济带来更大下行压力。在美联储内部，目前的主流观点认为，货币政策需要保持在限制性区间一段时间，才能实现通胀降温的目标，过早降息对经济的风险更大，多位官员甚至明确否认了明年降息的可能性。外界对美国经济前景的担忧愈发明显，摩根大通CEO戴蒙上周发出警告称，未来6-9个月美国将陷入衰退，纽约联储模型显示，明年8月衰退的概率已经达到25.1%，正在逼近2020年疫情期间的峰值39%。牛津经济研究院高级经济学家施瓦茨（Bob Schwartz）在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，目前2/10年期美债倒挂比此前四次衰退更为严重。美联储并没有明确接受以衰退为代价实现其目标，因为这将给金融市场和公众信心带来负面影响，并可能意想不到的潜在破坏性后果。市场预期明年末美联储利率中值4.6%（来源：芝商所网站）美联储副主席布雷纳德（Lael Brainard）近日提到了货币政策对经济影响的滞后性，在某个时刻暂停评估之前的政策行动是重要的，称情况可能发生变化。施瓦茨认为，由于现在的加息周期非常紧凑，经济不太可能及时反映政策的全部影响，考虑到未来货币政策依赖于数据，意味着明年加息步伐将逐渐放缓并结束。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"QID":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"ESmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9980959730,"gmtCreate":1665633198020,"gmtModify":1676537640015,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090574021972690","authorIdStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9980959730","repostId":"2275667395","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2275667395","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1665615976,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2275667395?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-13 07:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Fed meeting minutes: Recently reaching restrictive interest rates, more worried about too little rate hike","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2275667395","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"　　纪要称，美联储官员继续倾向于短期内实现加息至限制性的利率水平。许多与会者强调，在抑制通胀方面采取太少行动的成本超过了采取太多行动的成本。多名与会者指出，调整进一步收紧政策的步伐以减轻对经济前景产生重大不利影响的风险非常重要。　　10月12日周三公布的美联储9月货币政策会议纪要显示，美联储倾向于短期内实现加息至限制性的利率水平。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Fed officials continue to favor rate hike to restrictive interest rates in the short term, the minutes said. Many participants emphasized that the cost of doing too little to curb inflation outweighed the cost of doing too much. Several participants pointed out that it is very important to adjust the pace of further policy tightening to mitigate the risk of significant adverse effects on the economic outlook. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's September monetary policy meeting released on Wednesday, October 12th, showed that the Federal Reserve is inclined to achieve rate hike to restrictive interest rate levels (for the U.S. economy) in the short term.</p><p>The minutes said:</p><p>Given the broad-based and unacceptably high levels of inflation, higher-than-expected inflation news, and upside risks to the inflation outlook, participants said an intentional shift to a restrictive policy stance in the near term was consistent with risk management considerations. Participants felt that action was needed to maintain restrictive policies. Many participants said that once the policy reaches a sufficiently restrictive level, it would be appropriate to maintain that level for a period of time. Several members believe that the Fed's tightening actions need to be calibrated to mitigate risks. Officials stressed that even if the unemployment rate in the United States rises, the monetary policy path (current rate hike/tightening) should be maintained. Officials said rate hike would be slowed down at some point in time.</p><p>Several participants said risks would become more two-way as policies move into restrictive bands, the minutes showed:</p><p>Many participants emphasized that the cost of doing too little to curb inflation outweighed the cost of doing too much. Several of the participants emphasized that historical experience shows the danger of prematurely ending a period of tight monetary policy aimed at reducing inflation. Fed officials judged that they needed to pivot to and maintain a stricter policy stance to achieve their goal of reducing high inflation. Many participants upgraded their assessment of the Federal Funds rate path needed to achieve the Commission's objectives.</p><p>Some analysts believe that this implies that the Federal Reserve will continue its rate hike, regardless of the pressure rate hike brings to the US economy.</p><p><b>The Fed appears to be aware of the risks posed by aggressive rate hike</b></p><p>However, it seems that Fed officials are also aware of the global risks brought by the Fed's rate hike:</p><p>Several participants pointed out that, especially in the current highly uncertain global economic and financial environment, it is very important to adjust the pace of further policy tightening to mitigate the risk of significant adverse effects on the economic outlook. Participants judged that the pace and magnitude of the Fed's rate hike will continue to depend on the impact of upcoming information on economic activity and inflation outlook, as well as the risks to economic expectations.</p><p>In addition, Fed officials believe that the strengthening of the dollar largely reflects increased investor concerns about global growth prospects and widening interest rate spreads between the United States and Japan.</p><p><b>Fed willing to tolerate recession to control inflation</b></p><p>Regarding the U.S. macro-economy, most participants said that while some rate-sensitive spending categories-such as housing and business fixed investment-have begun to respond to tightening financial conditions, a significant portion of economic activity has yet to show much response. Participants noted that a period of below-trend real GDP growth will help reduce inflationary pressures and lay the foundation for continued achievement of the Fed's goals of maximum employment and price stability.</p><p>Regarding the labor market, the minutes said that the labor market will need to weaken to reduce high inflation. The unemployment rate is likely to rise, which largely reflects the impact of tighter monetary policy.</p><p>Additionally, as expected, the Fed's net income turned negative in September, the minutes said.</p><p><b>Market reaction</b></p><p>After the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting were released, U.S. stocks fluctuated, U.S. bond yields continued to fall, and the U.S. dollar changed little. Traders continue to bet on another 75 basis point rate hike from the Fed next month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4603614681af994a8a5937769cf18eab\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Analysis: Minutes Remain Hawkish</b></p><p>Former PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian believes:</p><p>As expected, the text is a bit hawkish on inflation's relationship to growth, jobs; Regarding the liquidity situation, it is only briefly mentioned. American financial blog Zero Hedge believes:</p><p>It is worth noting that the language of this Fed minutes hints at more rate hike until inflation is confident to fall back to 2%, and officials have delayed the idea of adjusting policy in the short term given their commitment to reducing inflation.</body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed meeting minutes: Recently reaching restrictive interest rates, more worried about too little rate hike</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed meeting minutes: Recently reaching restrictive interest rates, more worried about too little rate hike\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-13 07:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Fed officials continue to favor rate hike to restrictive interest rates in the short term, the minutes said. Many participants emphasized that the cost of doing too little to curb inflation outweighed the cost of doing too much. Several participants pointed out that it is very important to adjust the pace of further policy tightening to mitigate the risk of significant adverse effects on the economic outlook. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's September monetary policy meeting released on Wednesday, October 12th, showed that the Federal Reserve is inclined to achieve rate hike to restrictive interest rate levels (for the U.S. economy) in the short term.</p><p>The minutes said:</p><p>Given the broad-based and unacceptably high levels of inflation, higher-than-expected inflation news, and upside risks to the inflation outlook, participants said an intentional shift to a restrictive policy stance in the near term was consistent with risk management considerations. Participants felt that action was needed to maintain restrictive policies. Many participants said that once the policy reaches a sufficiently restrictive level, it would be appropriate to maintain that level for a period of time. Several members believe that the Fed's tightening actions need to be calibrated to mitigate risks. Officials stressed that even if the unemployment rate in the United States rises, the monetary policy path (current rate hike/tightening) should be maintained. Officials said rate hike would be slowed down at some point in time.</p><p>Several participants said risks would become more two-way as policies move into restrictive bands, the minutes showed:</p><p>Many participants emphasized that the cost of doing too little to curb inflation outweighed the cost of doing too much. Several of the participants emphasized that historical experience shows the danger of prematurely ending a period of tight monetary policy aimed at reducing inflation. Fed officials judged that they needed to pivot to and maintain a stricter policy stance to achieve their goal of reducing high inflation. Many participants upgraded their assessment of the Federal Funds rate path needed to achieve the Commission's objectives.</p><p>Some analysts believe that this implies that the Federal Reserve will continue its rate hike, regardless of the pressure rate hike brings to the US economy.</p><p><b>The Fed appears to be aware of the risks posed by aggressive rate hike</b></p><p>However, it seems that Fed officials are also aware of the global risks brought by the Fed's rate hike:</p><p>Several participants pointed out that, especially in the current highly uncertain global economic and financial environment, it is very important to adjust the pace of further policy tightening to mitigate the risk of significant adverse effects on the economic outlook. Participants judged that the pace and magnitude of the Fed's rate hike will continue to depend on the impact of upcoming information on economic activity and inflation outlook, as well as the risks to economic expectations.</p><p>In addition, Fed officials believe that the strengthening of the dollar largely reflects increased investor concerns about global growth prospects and widening interest rate spreads between the United States and Japan.</p><p><b>Fed willing to tolerate recession to control inflation</b></p><p>Regarding the U.S. macro-economy, most participants said that while some rate-sensitive spending categories-such as housing and business fixed investment-have begun to respond to tightening financial conditions, a significant portion of economic activity has yet to show much response. Participants noted that a period of below-trend real GDP growth will help reduce inflationary pressures and lay the foundation for continued achievement of the Fed's goals of maximum employment and price stability.</p><p>Regarding the labor market, the minutes said that the labor market will need to weaken to reduce high inflation. The unemployment rate is likely to rise, which largely reflects the impact of tighter monetary policy.</p><p>Additionally, as expected, the Fed's net income turned negative in September, the minutes said.</p><p><b>Market reaction</b></p><p>After the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting were released, U.S. stocks fluctuated, U.S. bond yields continued to fall, and the U.S. dollar changed little. Traders continue to bet on another 75 basis point rate hike from the Fed next month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4603614681af994a8a5937769cf18eab\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Analysis: Minutes Remain Hawkish</b></p><p>Former PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian believes:</p><p>As expected, the text is a bit hawkish on inflation's relationship to growth, jobs; Regarding the liquidity situation, it is only briefly mentioned. American financial blog Zero Hedge believes:</p><p>It is worth noting that the language of this Fed minutes hints at more rate hike until inflation is confident to fall back to 2%, and officials have delayed the idea of adjusting policy in the short term given their commitment to reducing inflation.</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3672229\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","BK4581":"高盛持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3672229","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2275667395","content_text":"纪要称，美联储官员继续倾向于短期内实现加息至限制性的利率水平。许多与会者强调，在抑制通胀方面采取太少行动的成本超过了采取太多行动的成本。多名与会者指出，调整进一步收紧政策的步伐以减轻对经济前景产生重大不利影响的风险非常重要。10月12日周三公布的美联储9月货币政策会议纪要显示，美联储倾向于短期内实现加息至（针对美国经济具有）限制性的利率水平。纪要称：鉴于通胀基础广泛且不可接受的高水平、高于预期的通胀消息以及通胀前景的上行风险，与会者表示，短期内有意转向限制性政策立场符合风险管理考虑。与会者们认为，需要采取行动，以便维持限制性的政策。许多与会者表示，一旦政策达到足够限制性的水平，在一段时间内维持该水平将是合适的。几名成员认为，需要校准美联储的紧缩行动，以缓和风险。官员们强调，哪怕美国失业率上升，也要维持（当前的加息/紧缩）货币政策路径。官员们称，将在某个时间点放慢加息步伐。纪要显示，几位与会者表示，随着政策进入限制性区间，风险将变得更加双向：许多与会者强调，在抑制通胀方面采取太少行动的成本超过了采取太多行动的成本。其中几位与会者强调，历史经验表明，过早结束旨在降低通胀的紧缩货币政策时期的危险。美联储官员判断，他们需要转向并维持更严格的政策立场，以实现降低高企通胀的目标。许多与会者上调了他们对实现委员会目标所需的联邦基金利率路径的评估。有分析认为，这暗示美联储将继续加息，而不会计较加息带给美国经济的压力。美联储似乎意识到了激进加息带来的风险不过，似乎美联储官员们也意识到了美联储加息带给全球的风险：几位与会者指出，特别是在当前高度不确定的全球经济和金融环境下，调整进一步收紧政策的步伐以减轻对经济前景产生重大不利影响的风险非常重要。与会者判断，美联储加息的速度和幅度将继续取决于即将到来的信息对经济活动和通胀前景的影响以及经济预期面临的风险。此外，美联储官员认为，美元走强在很大程度上反映了投资者对全球增长前景的担忧加剧以及美国和日本之间的利差扩大。为控制通胀，美联储愿容忍衰退关于美国宏观经济，大多数与会者表示，尽管一些对利率敏感的支出类别——例如住房和商业固定投资——已经开始对金融状况的收紧做出反应，但相当一部分经济活动尚未表现出太大的反应。 与会者指出，一段低于趋势的实际GDP增长将有助于减轻通胀压力，并为持续实现美联储最大就业和物价稳定的目标奠定基础。关于劳动力市场，纪要称，劳动力市场将需要走弱以降低高通胀。失业率可能会有所上升，这在很大程度上反映了紧缩货币政策的影响。此外，纪要称，正如预期的那样，美联储的净收入在9月份转为负值。市场反应美联储会议纪要公布后，美股震荡，美债收益率持续走低，美元变动不大。交易员继续押注美联储将在下个月再次加息75个基点。分析：会议纪要仍然鹰派PIMCO前CEO Mohamed El-Erian认为：正如预期的那样，关于通胀与增长、就业的关系，该文本有点鹰派；关于流动性状况，也只是一笔带过。美国金融博客Zero Hedge认为：值得注意的是，美联储这份纪要的措辞暗示了更多加息，直到通胀有信心回落至2%，鉴于官员们致力于降低通胀，他们在短期内推迟了调整政策的想法。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915418685,"gmtCreate":1665099152347,"gmtModify":1676537555545,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ec540f55a9536b728e59a537869d3e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090574021972690","authorIdStr":"4090574021972690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915418685","repostId":"1106272938","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106272938","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1665055217,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1106272938?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-06 19:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"10,000-word exclusive interview with Arm CEO: Why \"harvest\" global technology giants?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106272938","media":"芯东西","summary":"Arm为何改变主意要上市？是否被缺芯潮殃及？如何看待《美国芯片法案》？有一家特殊的芯片公司，不曾设计一颗芯片，却处在庞大的科技世界的中心，存在于手机、电脑、电视、汽车甚至是驱动一切的数据中心里，为苹果","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Why did Arm change its mind about going public? Has it been affected by the lack of cores? What do you think of the American Chip Act?</b>There is a special chip company that has never designed a chip, but it is at the center of a huge technological world. It exists in mobile phones, computers, TVs, cars and even data centers that drive everything, providing<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>Waiting for chip giants to provide core underlying technical support.</p><p>It is Arm, a joint venture founded by Apple, later acquired by Japan's SoftBank Group, and almost sold itself to the American GPU chip giant<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>The UK chip design company.</p><p>Arm licenses instruction set architecture (ISA) to companies with chip design needs and collects usage fees from them. In this way, Arm's influence radiates around the world to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Most mobile devices represented by mobile phones are inseparable from Arm's technology.</p><p>On Tuesday, Nilay Patel, chief editor-in-chief of the American technology media The Verge, and Rene Haas, the new CEO of Arm, completed a conversation. Nilay started from the most basic issues step by step, talking about how Arm makes money, whether it is affected by the core shortage, and how to Look at competition with x86 and RISC-V instruction set architectures, IPO progress and other topics that have attracted much attention from the industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/341f1d637541db18858733dd7b413359\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"670\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Arm CEO Rene Haas</p><p>In February this year, on the same day that Nvidia announced that it would abandon the acquisition of Arm, Arm's board of directors announced the appointment of Rene Haas as the new CEO. Although Rene Haas has only served as Arm CEO for half a year, he has actually worked at Arm for nearly 9 years. In his view, Arm is the Switzerland of the electronics industry and will remain as neutral as possible and not try to pick winners.</p><p>He also shared his views on the American Chip Act, arguing that it is not only important to the United States, but that in 50 years, every continent should have world-class chip factories. \"We shouldn't worry about geopolitical concerns about how the world works, because it's like the oxygen for the world to run.\"</p><p><b>The following is a complete compilation of the interview record by Xinxi:</b></p><p><b><i>01.</i></b></p><p><b>\"Almost everyone you can think of is our customer.\"</b></p><p><b>Nilay: Now Arm is facing many changes. You also have plans to lead Arm to go public in the future, and you also recently received the earnings report for the last quarter. Arm is a very interesting company, so I think we can talk about it from the beginning. Arm is a key piece of the puzzle in the entire technology ecosystem. It affects almost everyone, but its image is opaque. Consumers do not have a direct relationship with Arm, but many other companies make a carrier in the middle. identity, so let's start from scratch, what exactly does Arm do?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>As you said, Arm is indeed not a well-known company, and the outside world doesn't know us, but we think we are still very important.</p><p>First of all, we are in the semiconductor value chain of the semiconductor world. You can see Arm's technology in almost all semiconductor products or OEM products, we have it in mobile phones, laptops, and smart TVs. Just by looking at my desk, there are almost dozens of things containing Arm processors.</p><p>Arm doesn't directly build products, nor does it produce chips, but builds the design inside the chip, and we license our design to people who want to build the final product. Our most famous product is the CPU, which is the brain of almost all types of electronic devices.</p><p>Since Arm doesn't make chips and licenses brains directly to willing people, Arm's brains are everywhere. Judging from the data of the last quarter, among all semiconductor companies and OEMs in the world, Arm Manufacturing delivered 7.4 billion chips with built-in Arm CPUs, GPUs or other technologies. This is a very large number, so we are in the semiconductor value chain, but we will not build any products, we are only responsible for design, especially the design processing of microprocessors.</p><p><b>Nilay: Who are your customers?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>This question is very interesting. In the electronics industry, it seems easier to say who isn't our customer, because almost anyone you can imagine, is our customer.</p><p>Our customers include Samsung,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>, GlobalFoundries and other companies that actually manufacture chips, and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>, AMD, Nvidia, Qualcomm,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>, when you go to other parts of the world, we still have<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>And ByteDance. Almost all of them are our customers.</p><p><b>Nilay: So how do you make money from these customers? Are they just buying licenses for the design? Or buy chip samples? Do they have to pay patent licensing fees? How exactly does this all work?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>Our business model is divided into two parts.</p><p>The first part is the upfront license fee. Only after the cooperative customer pays us this money can he obtain the right to use the technology, thus having the right to further design our technology.</p><p>The second part is that if those designs end up in production and form a final product, we charge a user fee per unit based on some mathematical algorithm related to the contract.</p><p>Therefore, it can be said that we have two sources of income, one is licensing income, and the other is royalty income.</p><p><b>Nilay: If I buy a Snapdragon chip at Qualcomm, do I need to pay you? Or does Qualcomm have to pay you? Or does someone else have to pay?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>You don't need to pay, but Qualcomm does. In the case you mentioned, Qualcomm needs to inform us of the number of chips you purchased. We and Qualcomm will have a pre-negotiated franchise rate, and Qualcomm will pay us according to the negotiated rate.</p><p><b>Nilay: Samsung is designing and producing its own chips for their own smartphones, and its departments must sign conditions with each other. If I purchase a Samsung phone with a Samsung Exynos chip instead of a Qualcomm chip, how will that money flow back to you?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>That's the beauty of Arm's business model. Qualcomm uses our technology, and so does Samsung. When the Galaxy phone is shipped, we will probably receive payment from Samsung. If this product is in cooperation with Qualcomm, then we will receive payment from Qualcomm.</p><p>In short, we will all get paid. This depends on the licensing situation between us and our partners. Usually, we will cooperate with the semiconductor departments of these companies. Take Samsung as an example. If we sign a contract with the chip department, the chip department will need to pay Arm.</p><p><b>Nilay: The last question at the top of the difficulty ladder. Apple offers a very unique license called the Architecture License. They completely design their own chips, and I don't feel like they use a lot of your designs, but it's Arm's intellectual property. So when I buy a MacBook Air (M2), how do you get paid?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>It's all similar in business logic, we sign contracts with companies like Apple who pay us copyright taxes just like everyone else.</p><p><b>Nilay: Can anyone get a license like Apple? Using your IP, but completely designing your own stuff?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>Architectural licensing basically gives companies the right to make what we call Arm-compatible processors. Anyone who does this can make minor modifications to the microarchitecture, which is actually how to physically put it on the chip.</p><p>But what these companies can't do is modify the CPU, which will make the chip unable to run Arm's instructions. And this is crucial because at the end of the day, we have to maintain software compatibility. Whether it is something we build ourselves or something built by a licensed partner, as long as we are running an Arm processor, it must meet the requirements of running Arm software. requirements.</p><p>We have built very good CPUs. I think it is very difficult to build a CPU that is different or better than ours and still complies with Arm standards. Of course, this may also be my own bias.</p><p>There were many people who did this in the past, but now there are fewer, because firstly, it is difficult to do it, and secondly, it is difficult to find people who do it. It is very difficult to build this kind of talent team. Most companies will say when faced with this road: \"If I build a SoC (system-on-a-chip) and I only have so many valuable engineers, then differentiated Arm CPU It may not be a very worthwhile place to put the energy into.\" Besides, they have other places that need to be invested in, such as camera, modem or IO support.</p><p><b>Nilay: When Apple or a licensee of another architecture delivers a product, do you have a team to verify that it's running the Arm instruction set and that they're not breaking the rules? Or do you just use the honor system so you don't mess with (Apple CEO) Tim Cook too much?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We have a set of requirements for this as well as a compliance suite that facilitates our testing to fundamentally verify that what they build is Arm compliant. We will test it to see if Arm instructions and code can be run, if the compiler is corrupt, or if the correct instructions cannot be recognized. So the short answer is, we do offer a set of compliance tests for all build designs based on architectural license.</p><p><b>Nilay: Aside from the Intel and AMD CPUs that people might come across because it's kind of opaque, I think the closed loop is where you really verify that this is the Arm stuff that works the way Arm works, and I think most people don't understand that, so I want to ask this set of questions and get a feel for the business.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>These are all very important issues. One of the things that has made us almost ubiquitous throughout history is that whether it's based on Arm CPU core licensing, or based on Arm instruction set architecture licensing, they need to run software for Arm instruction set architecture, and it doesn't break.</p><p>Arm has some failed CPUs that allow scaling, aka allowing customers to add custom instructions, and while that sounds innovative and cool, what really has to do with CPU architecture is letting developers know it will run.</p><p>If a developer is writing a piece of code for an OEM and has Arm embedded, the developer doesn't want to know, doesn't need to know, or even can't know that they're designing a thermostat with a Bob chip built in, and that Bob has some additional instructions. You need to take advantage of this because they may not know if other OEM devices have Arm chips that contain these instructions.</p><p>It is important to level the playing field and ensure that software datasets look the same. Our founders have done a fantastic job of sticking to that and making it feature quick. You can see that is really benefiting us right now.</p><p><b><i>02.</i></b></p><p><b>Stay neutral and don't try to pick winners</b></p><p><b>Nilay: Many of your customers have unavoidably fierce competitive relationships in multiple fields. I've talked to a lot of executives like you. In my opinion, they do much more interpersonal negotiation than engineering and research jobs. Is it true for you too? Do you consider yourself a business politician who ensures fairness to balance competition, or do you still focus more on processor design and development?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We must be deeply involved in all kinds of interpersonal negotiations, which is what we are going to do, but we also spend a lot of time and energy developing these CPU and software ecosystems to solve the problems of partners and really ensure that the product is in a leading position.</p><p>One difference is that we deal with everyone and have to be consistent in how we approach partnerships, which is really around access to technology, access to errors, and access to people.</p><p>The world depends on Arm, and as you said, we are a bit opaque. Saying on a podcast that the world depends on Arm, someone will want to say, \"I depend on you? I don't even know you!\" But we're really managing our relationship with our partners very seriously.</p><p><b>Nilay: Let me give you another simple example. I really find this example very enlightening. A few years ago, we talked to people running HDMI (High Definition Multimedia Interface), and they set up the PlayStation (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNE\">Sony</a>A home game console released in Japan in 1994) is the industry standard for plugging into a TV. Of course, that's why HDMI doesn't work perfectly when your remote control can control everything on your TV. Frankly speaking, they have raised their hands and surrendered: \"This problem is too difficult to solve. No one wants to solve it. Everyone is messing up.\" From a political perspective, I can see why that's their answer, because it's the lowest bet, right? I just want to plug my DVD player into the TV and let the remote control control the work, but the political nature inside is insurmountable. Besides, it is not an industry standard organization, so it needs to take great risks. Arm is a company that needs to report its earnings to shareholders. If it wants to go public, it must increase its earnings for its shareholders. How will you deal with the friction and tension between them?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We're really trying to be as neutral as possible. We are called the \"Switzerland of the electronics industry\" (known for its neutrality), which is a good comparison. We don't try to pick winners, we dabble in various sub-ecosystems within the ecosystem. If you start at the bottom of the semiconductor chain, all the chipmakers like Global Foundries, Samsung, TSMC, Intel, you realize that you have to work with all of them.</p><p>We have to ensure that our technology can be built on every semiconductor process in the world, and that requires investment from all these partners. And then, all the way up, when you think about Android, Linux, Windows, and all the major operating systems that we support, we have to make sure that we're among them.</p><p>We really try not to give ourselves an edge in the competition between one side and another. I'm not sure how we'll end up getting there, but that goal means we're standing on the shoulders of a pretty large ecosystem.</p><p>It's an ecosystem with design tools, manufacturing processes, software operating systems, and middleware. We often cooperate with relevant industry chain manufacturers and create them. We don't really work much with standards bodies, but we do work a lot with all the vendors I just mentioned.</p><p>We make sure to understand all the things they're trying to do from a roadmap perspective to make sure we're as compliant as possible. In the final analysis, we license the technology to the people who build the chips, and the people who build the chips want to have the widest opportunity in the range of chips that can be made.</p><p><b><i>03.</i></b></p><p><b>With a team size of nearly 6,000 people, how does Rene Haas make decisions?</b></p><p><b>Nilay: I want to learn about other basics of Arm, how many employees does Arm have?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>The last number I saw was probably around 5,800, but with contractors added, it could be over 6,000.</p><p><b>Nilay: How are they structured? Is it all chip design, or is there a lawyer? Is the ratio of patent attorneys to chip designers 1: 1? How does this work?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>Certainly not lawyers and engineers 1: 1, that's all I can say.</p><p><b>Nilay: Some companies are 1: 1 lawyers and engineers.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We're far from that. Our staff are mainly engineers, most of whom are based in the UK. We have several different engineering sites in different parts of the UK, France and Northern Europe; There are also several design centers in Arizona and Texas; There are also quite a few design engineers in Bangalore and Noida, India.</p><p>In contrast, our legal department is very small. If shown in thumbnail scale, the ratio of engineers to lawyers is quite large. We've done a really good job in how the licensing model works and in protecting intellectual property. While there isn't a huge legal department, there do be a lot of engineers because these products are really hard to make.</p><p><b>Nilay: Who reports to you? How is your team structured?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I am the CEO, and we also have the chief financial officer, the chief personnel officer and the person in charge of legal reporting. The whole is organized around business departments, forming a vertical business structure. We have automotive, Internet of Things (IoT), infrastructure, and client businesses, as well as chief architects, sales executives, and engineering executives, who also report to me. As I listed, there are a lot of direct reports. Arm is primarily people-oriented and operates around engineering, people, legal, and finance in the business.</p><p><b>Nilay: This question is a classic question that I often ask others. You have been at Arm for 9 years and have been CEO for 6 months. How did you make your decision? What is your framework?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I have to lie a little about having dinner with Tony Fadell, whom I know you interviewed a while back, and I appreciate his habit of contrasting opinion-based decision-making with data-based decision-making. What I'm trying to say is that the greater your beard and hair, the more open you are to opinion-based decisions. Human history repeats itself because we are humans and humans repeat the same successes and mistakes.</p><p>And I am a mixture of opinion and data, and the more experienced I am, the more I rely on intuition. Experience helps. For those fans: Why Tom<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRC\">Brady</a>Still playing quarterback at 45, even though physically, he plays with people half his age? Because it was hard to lie to him, he saw everything. And business is far more complicated than professional football.</p><p>So, the short answer to your question is data and opinion, both of which I rely on, but right now probably opinion helps me more than data because my intuition is more visual.</p><p><b>Nilay: My understanding of Tom Brady is that he doesn't eat any tomatoes and eats avocado ice cream every day, are those on your menu too?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>He's a bit like Benjamin Barton, and every time I look at him, he gets younger and younger. I also have strange eating habits. The British will know that I eat yogurt and granola for lunch every day. My assistant will almost preemptively say, \"I put your yogurt in the fridge. It has your name on it.\"</p><p>Not that I would put myself in the super successful category, but I do see this from other leaders, and these things reduce the number of decisions you have to make, and I have always found it helpful to me personally.</p><p>I wear the same clothes. I eat the same food. It's something I love and don't worry about it.</p><p><b>Nilay: Now let's talk about a big decision. As we all know, Arm was involved in this storm of SoftBank Vision Fund. SoftBank raised billions of dollars for the Vision Fund. The direct acquisition of Arm is a big deal for SoftBank. They have invested in many companies and the Vision Fund is a bit volatile. Trying to sell it to Nvidia when it is stable. The industry basically lobbied against the deal as much as it could, saying, \"We don't want Nvidia to have this core CPU technology, don't do it.\" The government also came forward and said it would block the deal, and SoftBank eventually gave up.</b></p><p><b>And then you come in as the new CEO and say to take the company public, which is a big flip. Your predecessor was firmly opposed to listing Arm because of what we talked about before: the pressure to increase revenue, against the risks of a neutral and fair supplier model, after all, you can increase revenue through special deals. These pressures will come, but it will all be your decision. How did you make this decision?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We announced this shift at the end of last year when the Nvidia deal largely fell apart. After I took over in mid-February and wrapped up our financial year in March, we were finally able to talk about financial results, something we haven't done in a while.</p><p>During the Nvidia period, we were very low-key, and when we announced our revenue for the year, we set a record of over $2 billion-$2.6 billion, and we've never done more than $2 billion in the past. Our operating margin is close to 40%, but almost everyone outside believes that we are losing money because we are very low-key. If you fast forward to this quarter, it's even higher than where we ended last year: more than 50% and $700 million in revenue, of which $450 million was royalties.</p><p>My several phone calls with analysts and journalists were like, \"Where did this come from? What funny math are you doing? Is this some form of equation?\" But actually, we know we're doing a good job.</p><p>Soon after SoftBank acquired Arm, we restructured and created two business units, and I took over Classic Arm and started pivoting to other markets. This pivot is not only a business model, but also a product. We know there are some changes happening in the data center, TSMC is doing a really good job with processing, and we're making good progress with software workloads. We think we can gain something in the hyperscale market if we push our investments into some specific directives, such as SME and SVE, which are vector scaling of specific workloads on hyperscale computers.</p><p><b>Nilay: To make it clear to everyone, that's the cloud computing market, that's your Google Cloud, AWS stuff.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>That's your cloud. AWS is a valued partner for us. They announced Graviton2 along with some pretty jaw-dropping numbers, with a 40% price performance improvement relative to other architectures. So we diversify our business by addressing this not only by developing different products, but also through different parts of the business model strategy.</p><p>We know our business is going to be fine. All the financial results that you're seeing right now are fantastic, the team is doing a fantastic job with this, and these really are all from work that was done a few years ago, and you don't see royalty results per unit overnight.</p><p>We develop IP, and then the IP has to be handed over to the customer, and they have to make a chip, and that chip has to go into a product, and the product has to be qualified. All of this can take 3 to 4 years, and we feel good about where we are going, and we feel good about areas that we have been investing in, such as cloud, automotive and IoT. These are all large long-term growth areas that I think we're a great fit in.</p><p><b>Nilay: You made some bets two years ago that have now paid off handsomely, do you think investor pressure between quarters will change the way you run your company?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I think any time you're a public company, that's just part of the way the world works. I can't talk too much about what life is going to be like as a public company though, I'm subject to very strict orders to stay in my area and can't talk too much.</p><p><b>Nilay: One of the few lawyers in the firm is running into the room.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>Haha, so I can't really say much about it. But I can say we are very confident in the long-term growth of the markets involved.</p><p><b><i>04.</i></b></p><p><b>For Arm, cars will be a big market</b></p><p><b>Nilay: You just expressed confidence in automotive, IoT, and cloud. The cloud market exists and is growing, and Arm has done something about it. I've talked to a lot of CEOs in the automotive industry, and we spent a lot of time on The Verge cast talking about smart homes and the Internet of Things. But those markets haven't really turned around, and as Arm CEO, can you push that? Or is it more like \"we just need to prepare the design and product for the car to truly become a network computer on wheels\"?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>When people think of electronic devices in cars, they automatically turn to autonomous driving, etc. Think about what's inside the car, and the number of processes in the car. The dashboard is all digital and computerized, the drivetrain, and whatever has to do with the mirrors and brakes, all of which are rapidly moving to and operating on the Arm. A lot of what's happening in smart cars is moving towards Arm.</p><p>In the powertrain, you have many old standalone electronic control units (ECUs), they may have an old proprietary microcontroller and are not identical to the rest of the car. All of these ECUs are being redesigned, inside each car, there may be 50-70 ECUs, and each one may have an old proprietary microcontroller, they don't have connections, don't have a memory management unit. Therefore, with the addition of automatic and advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), cars can become highly connected devices, which is an area Arm wants to develop.</p><p>To us, cars are a bit of a sandbox of multiple technologies: dash, drivetrain, drivetrain/ECU. By the way, autonomy is a huge opportunity for us.</p><p>Getting back to the data center space, in terms of computing, what really matters in a car is performance and efficiency, you can't have a server in your trunk running an electric car, and some cars today are like that. That will improve over time, and we are very optimistic about the automotive market, where we will grow very fast as well.</p><p><b>Nilay: So, are you going to ask some of your engineers to say, go find ECUs, engine controllers or body control modules that can work across cars, so that someone at Nvidia can come and get the license and sell it to Ford?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>This is actually already happening. These CPU efficiency, power, and functional safety for cars are all important. You must have all the safeguards in place to ensure that it can operate safely. Some people do this in software through compute libraries, but most people prefer to do this in hardware, where it is safer and more efficient to perform.</p><p>We have developed automotive processors and graphics processors with embedded functional safety. Before we didn't do that, before we would basically just roll out a generic thing to use anywhere you want. It's one of the things that we've made significant changes in the last few years.</p><p><b>Nilay: We're talking about the future now. Let's bring the topic back to the present. We have been in a state of chip shortage for a long time, and this \"core shortage\" may not end. Both Intel and Nvidia had less than satisfactory quarterly results, and Intel said they would actually raise prices. Where would you be in a chip shortage? Is that something that's affecting you right now? Is that something you see coming and going? You're kind of out of touch with this actual part.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We're out of the idea of not making anything, but we do have to do with chips again, and our royalty model has to do with components that people order.</p><p>Going back to the earlier discussion, we are very diverse in terms of end markets. Another thing that's happening is that more and more CPUs are being used in these SoCs. The application processor of the mobile phone may use one CPU, while the cluster used for computing is now 9 or 10 different CPUs. You have 10 CPUs, which is just the application processor (AP), and then consider touch sensors, monitors and cameras. We're seeing that although sales in certain markets such as smartphones have been heading towards weakness, we've been protected by it from a product direction perspective.</p><p><b>Nilay: Did you hear our episode with Willy Shih? Here he is, telling us about the toilet paper, and then talking about the manufacture of chips and LCD monitors. Because they had too many SKUs and sold too many types of paper, they decided to reduce the types of toilet paper. In the end, this decision solved a large part of the problem.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>right. So now think about a car that needs all sorts of diodes, capacitors, resistors, and thermal sensors, not just because it's hard to get 3nm, but it's hard to build a fabs.</p><p>You can tell by my hair color that I've been in this industry for a long time. I've been in a business cycle. People start to stop R&D and slow down projects. They gradually stop trying new things and stop innovating.</p><p>I think it's because everything is going digital, the super high demand for electronics and how it's going to change our lives. What are our metrics? Licensing and new design beginnings have never been better for us because it is across all markets.</p><p><b><i>05.</i></b></p><p><b>\"In 50 years, every continent should have world-class fabs\"</b></p><p><b>Nilay: What you're saying is one of the reasons why R&D is picking up pace. The world is beginning to re-recognize the prospect of globalization, and the world is no longer so peaceful. The U.S. just passed the Chip Act to really incentivize chip manufacturing and various design investments. TSMC is building in the U.S., and Intel just broke ground on a new factory in Ohio. Do you see considering that everyone knows that we rely heavily on a few fabs in Taiwan, which is a geopolitical hotspot. We need to transfer this critical technological dependence to our own countries. Is this something you would be involved in, or are you just watching?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We will definitely be involved in this. As long as we can expand the need for this by talking to political officials in any country, we will help. It's not just an Arm issue, it's an industry issue. A single point of failure in anything you're doing is not a good thing, the pandemic has exposed a lot and people are starting to keep their eyes open to what things are the real problem. I am so grateful to the people who are pushing the chip bill, and that's really very important.</p><p>Not only is this important for the United States, every continent should have its own world-class wafer fab in the next 50 years from now. We don't have to worry about geopolitics, the fabs will be like the oxygen for the world to revolve after.</p><p><b>Nilay: Now the cutting-edge process nodes are mainly controlled by TSMC, which is far ahead with 5nm and 3nm technologies. Few people can compete at this level. Your smartphones use the most cutting-edge technologies, while those used in cars are basically mature process nodes (40nm, 14nm). The processes are severely limited, and no one is investing in building these fabs anymore. What do you think of this outcome? What do you think of this strict restriction on TSMC, which has cutting-edge technology? Everyone wants to improve building capabilities on these things, but no one wants to improve building capabilities for old things.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I'm not a manufacturing expert, but what I can tell you is that we're seeing a lot getting done about how to convert certain fabs into new jobs.</p><p>Just like you said it was. People are usually a little reluctant to put a lot of money into this, and you might think that you can convert the fab that we are building into some kind of process technology and turn it into a logic fab? Is there a storage fab that can be converted to a logic fab? But this is a very complicated problem because there are only so many factories in the world, and there are only so many people who know how to build these things, and they are all public companies and have to go and make money, in short, it's a very complicated matrix.</p><p>Thirty years ago, Japan's logic fabs were world-class and spread across the country. Now that number has basically dropped to zero. Japan is looking for ways to change that to bring more fabs back online. I think you're going to see a lot of things in the U.S. in other countries that have done the chip bill and that sort of thing. I think South Korea's fabs have huge capabilities, but it is also a complicated and difficult problem.</p><p><b><i>06.</i></b></p><p><b>\"Intel CEO did a lot of the right things\"</b></p><p><b>Nilay: How dependent is Arm on TSMC? It feels like a lot of companies are realizing that they really depend on one company. It's an industry leader for a reason, but there's a lot of dependency there. Have you considered this dependency when designing new processor types or architectures?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We work closely with TSMC. All fabs are important to us, and Arm will remain neutral.</p><p>Seriously, they all matter. In an ideal world, we have a lot of people who can build cutting-edge technology. Generally speaking, in smart phones and data centers, it is usually the most cutting-edge technology, because everyone is really trying to maximize performance as much as possible, which is not the case in automotive and industrial fields. Therefore, any fab that adopts cutting-edge processes is very important to us.</p><p><b>Nilay: As we all know, Intel has long been an integrated design and fab enterprise. They were basically blown away by TSMC, and now, they have a new CEO who is breaking that with plans to open up their factories to others. You just said that Intel is a customer, are you working with them?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We wanted TSMC to make a lot of Arm products, and they did. We expect Intel to do the same.</p><p><b>Nilay: Are you optimistic that Intel can do that?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I think (Intel CEO) Pat has done a lot of things right. His work is hard and extremely well done, and we are more than willing to do more with him.</p><p><b>Nilay: Another political answer, but I have to ask. In terms of the chip bill, people are very excited about the passage and signing of the bill. Intel has received a lot of criticism for announcing cuts in capital expenditures and increased Dividend rather than putting it into fabs. Broadly speaking, do you think this is the right move? What timing should we look for for fabs in the US?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I wouldn't doubt Pat's decisions about how he spends his money. Getting back to what you said, we're talking about a single point of failure. I feel like we need to move quickly, get these facilities up and running as quickly as possible, get them online, build more redundancy, and reduce the risk of single points of failure. So we need more fabs.</p><p><b>Nilay: What kind of timing do you make your decisions based on? If a bill is passed today, or someone announces a new fab today, and we won't see it for five years, how do you see the timing of your decision?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>After six months as CEO, I am still learning, and I have a lot of responsibilities. One of the biggest responsibilities is to think about the problems five years from now.</p><p>Because of the way our business operates, the process from designing the product to seeing the revenue is quite long. We are thinking about where the opportunities are, where investments need to be made, where the threats are, and the direction of system and software design.</p><p>Most of my energy is spent thinking about what the world will look like in 2025 and 2026, not next quarter.</p><p><b><i>07.</i></b></p><p><b>Stay tuned to PC, Arm is making a lot of progress</b></p><p><b>Nilay: There are some long-term bets that are more focused on consumers than replacing servers in the trunk of a car. At present, the hottest trend related to Arm is that Apple has shifted from Intel x86 processors to self-developed M-series processors licensed based on the Arm instruction set architecture to support their Macs, which not only improves battery life and performance, but also helps Apple reduce procurement costs. Now, thanks to these chips, Mac is basically the best laptop you can buy. This reflects that Arm architecture processors can also achieve great success in the PC market. Can Arm help other industries do these things? Or just design, and hope that Qualcomm can make something that allows Microsoft and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell</a>A chip that can do this too? From your perspective, how do you see the relationship with the industry?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I think we can do more, and probably need to do more. It's not because we need to help the industry, but because these products are really complicated to build.</p><p>Let's talk about architectural licensing first. Previously, many manufacturers believed that you needed to obtain architectural licenses to build a better CPU to compete with Arm. However, the IPC instructions per clock of the microprocessor are only one aspect that can really change the design. Memory subsystems, interconnects, The size of the cache, how it interfaces with the rest of the SoC, and ensuring that the SoC is in a multi-chip package with chip and chip interconnects.</p><p>Some clients are very good at these things and can figure it out, so they don't need too much help from us. But as time goes on, more and more businesses will need Arm to do more, and that's a trend we're watching very closely.</p><p><b>Nilay: From your point of view, as long as it's all Arm chips, it doesn't matter who wins, does it? If Apple takes 100% of the laptop market, that's great for you. If Microsoft,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">Hewlett Packard</a>And Qualcomm to be able to pair competitive Windows on Arm laptops and take a 50% share, you can still get paid. Does it feel like whoever wins, you will win?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>If the product ships with the Arm instruction set architecture, that's a good thing for us, if an alternative device is used, it means it doesn't use the Arm instruction set architecture, which is not so good for us.</p><p>When I first took office, I took a small moniker for my own name on the website and worked with the PR team to use the slogan \"Arm will show up wherever computing happens\". It doesn't matter a thermostat or microwave oven, Polycom, or a smart TV, laptop, etc., these are all based on Arm.</p><p><b>Nilay: You just said where the computing happens, for most people, the computing happens on their laptops and desktops. I've been hearing about Windows on Arm (WoA) for 13 years and it didn't happen, but are you just content to let Apple eat the industry? Because there are still other people's instruction sets in this extremely huge industry, such as Intel's instruction set.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I used to work for a company that developed Windows RT as the general manager of that product line. Before joining Arm, I worked at Nvidia for many years (7 years as VP and General Manager of the Computing Products Business Unit at Nvidia), and we made great progress on this because we felt the real tipping point was there.</p><p>The turning point did exist, and during my first news interview on my Windows RT laptop, I remember meeting with a group of reporters and the first question they asked me was: \"Does it run iTunes?\" We're like, \"Ah, shit. No.\" It doesn't run because we don't have ports and Apple isn't helping us.</p><p>Fast forward to 10 years later, streaming audio has arrived, and no one really cares about these apps. If you consider all the apps that run on a PC or phone, it's hard to say \"OK, what native apps aren't really running on Arm?\" They were almost all there.</p><p>Stay tuned for the PC thing. We are making a lot of progress. You can see what the features are through laptops in other ecosystems. I think it's a wake-up call for the industry in terms of the potential of these features, and we're going to stick with it.</p><p><b>Nilay: That wake-up call was due to a very wealthy company spending a lot of money on your instruction set customization, right? That's their leverage. Are you saying that we as Arm can develop products that are as efficient per watt as M-series chips and then sell those designs to Qualcomm? Or does it come down to Qualcomm-which I believe also has architectural licenses-doing it itself?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I'm 100% confident of that. You don't need a schema license to do this.</p><p><b><i>08.</i></b></p><p><b>How to win in GPU?</b></p><p><b>Nilay: On the other hand there are laptops, desktops, and even automakers. I went to sit in a (American BEV) Rivian, and I was told that GPUs and Unreal Engines drive cars. Graphics performance has become the point of differentiation for various products in the industry, and Arm has a well-named new GPU, Immortalis. Apple is not using your GPU. If you think about the big GPU vendors, they don't really think about performance per watt, do they? With high-end Nvidia cards, you just need to have a nuclear reactor in the basement to run that thing, which is great. It looks good. How will you win in GPU?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>When you count it by units, we're actually the # 1 supplier of GPUs on the planet. I remember that during the Nvidia acquisition, its CEO Jensen Huang put forward a key point: We will be faithful to our review, and performance per watt matters. We're not going to risk doing a hundred watt TDP GPU and try to make a difference in that space. We're going to try in the 1 watt range, optimizing in that range. Then there are certain areas where you can start doing more in terms of multiple GPUs.</p><p>We're starting to see people thinking about doing machine learning extensions and possibly doing these things inside the GPU. This is interesting because GPUs can benefit from some level of AI and machine learning to do shader drawing in a more efficient way. In the meantime, you can start working or move ML workloads onto the GPU. There's a lot of interesting innovations that will be able to happen on our GPUs, and we're investing heavily in that space. To be clear, we will remain in an area where performance and efficiency matter.</p><p><b>Nilay: Yeah, you deliver a lot of GPUs. It is part of the SoC package for many customers. Performance per watt leads for customers with their own GPU or their own GPU extensions. Is it the same deal that doesn't matter at the end of the day because they are shipping the Arm instruction set architecture and you still get paid? Or is it \"we have to stay competitive here or they will leave altogether\"?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>The GPU is slightly different from the CPU because the API is decimative. Performance per watt does matter. We do a lot to level the competition, and with Immortalis, are leading the way in many areas. Another thing that is very critical for these GPUs is the efficiency of the interface between the CPU and the GPU, which is also an area where we invest heavily, but we have to be vigilant in the GPU market, which is, as you said, very competitive. You let people do it themselves, you let other third parties do the product. At the same time, this is an area that we are very focused on, so we will invest. I think machine learning AI vectors for future use with GPUs are a huge opportunity for us.</p><p><b>Nilay: GPUs are a huge investment. You have to spend a lot of money to compete and win the design. Are you making this investment because you can win back these products and get more from other custom GPUs over time? Or just to be competitive, do you need competitive GPUs?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I go back to machine learning and artificial intelligence. If you have a heterogeneous computing system, and you have a CPU, GPU, and NPU, I think at some point in time the compiler will get smart enough that they may point to parts of the code that can run better on the GPU versus the CPU.</p><p>If you look at the whole cluster as a complete subsystem, I think there are long-term benefits from that. For us, especially when designing a system-on-chip, we're trying to make all sorts of major trade-offs. Sometimes I don't want that workload to run on the CPU because it consumes unnecessary power and I probably have transistors in the GPU that I might be able to use if I wasn't drawing. We think GPUs are a very critical strategic component.</p><p><b><i>09.</i></b></p><p><b>Only Arm and RISC-V options</b></p><p><b>Nilay: GPU competitors, in one aspect, are obvious. CPU competitors seem more difficult to identify, who are your competitors?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>In terms of CPU? I think there are probably only two options, which is biased, but I don't even think there's a real choice.</p><p>From an instruction set architecture perspective, if you want to build an SoC based on x86, there are only two companies in the world that will do it for you: AMD or Intel. Then there's RISC-V, which is a completely different part because it's open source and many different versions exist.</p><p>RISC-V is a scalable processor, which means that its strengths are its weaknesses. In my opinion, scalability leads to fragmentation. I think it hurts them in terms of getting any kind of software ecosystem. It's really hard to look around and say, \"What are the major software ecosystems that run consistently on RISC-V processors?\" No.</p><p>So, where do we see RISC-V in the system-on-chip today? It is located in the deep embedded part of the chip, unaware of its existence by external programmers.</p><p>Here's an analogy I can give. If you put something in the microwave and press the start button on the 30-second timer, that display may be Arm, because there may be a small piece of open-source application code running on it. The timer that actually turns the oven on and turns it off after 30 seconds might be RISC-V.</p><p>These are really the only two options available. I mean, all of these are small companies, but those companies really don't have a lot of appeal in terms of market share.</p><p><b>Nilay: Do you see Arm and RISC-V retiring out the outdated x86 world?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>x86 has been around for a long time and has a very strong installed base, and I certainly don't want to do anything to belittle what they are doing. I think the challenge with x86 is that it only comes from two companies, which in itself is a limiting factor in terms of how far it can go.</p><p><b>Nilay: These two companies, Intel and AMD, both have their own fabs, as does TSMC. There's another manufacturing conundrum, and over time, these manufacturers seem to say, \"Look, we're really good at Arm. We're going to be good at RISC-V, we don't want to be good at x86 anymore.\"</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I'd even wonder if they're really pretty good at Arm already. Needless to say, this is not easy.</p><p><b>Nilay: Are there any other competitors like RISC-V? I mean, RISC-V is another thing like Windows on Arm. I've heard about it for a decade and it seems to be in some of the apps you're talking about.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>It's all about software. At the end of the day, it's about having a rich ecosystem of developers who can take advantage of writing software. For us, we think there are 15 to 25 million developers programming on Arm. Some people know they are programming on Arm because they take advantage of the instruction set, but there are others who don't because it's abstracted out. The compiler and open source libraries are there, which makes it easy to run.</p><p>For example: Smart TVs. If you try to write new menus for smart TVs and try to link to the version of Android that is essentially the underlying kernel, it's Arm. It's all optimized for Arm. In terms of self-reporting, this is a big plus. These libraries all exist and have been optimized. Let's say you tried it on RISC-V. If Company A adds 17 new instructions to make their RISC-V look a little different, then developers won't know this. How will developers take advantage of this? RISC-V may eventually be reduced to the lowest common denominator.</p><p><b>Nilay: A few months ago, Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon participated in this show. I asked him the same Windows on Arm question, and he kind of blamed the software developers, saying, \"Look, Microsoft,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>And other big independent software vendors have to join, they have to make these things quickly. \" You just said it's all about software, did you spend time with those companies saying, \"Look, you have to shift your focus to the future, this is Arm?\"</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>By these companies do you mean Microsoft or Adobe?</p><p><b>Nilay: Both.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>Yeah, yeah. We spend a lot of time on both, and that's where the battle is ultimately to win. You've been looking at it like me for 10, 12 years, and it's closer than ever because not only is there more work being done on the original apps, but more of these native apps have been written for Arm.</p><p>Take a look at the two different operating systems in the world. Other operating systems use their names in their code. View all Microsoft applications running only on their system. They are all ported in this way, and as a result, all these Microsoft apps can run on your phone. We're pretty much the same, and I think the turning point will come when there's a lot of pretty good CPU products on the market that can compete with others. As far as your point is concerned, the product proves that you don't have to sacrifice performance and game-changing battery life in form factor.</p><p><b><i>10.</i></b></p><p><b>Epilogue: What's next for Arm?</b></p><p><b>Nilay: I always ask people what's next for their company, but I'll ask you a more specific question. You announced that Arm will go public in March 2023. As the time approaches, can you deliver on this goal?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>Unfortunately, we are at a stage right now where I can't give too much away.</p><p><b>Nilay: Okay, what's next for Arm?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We will continue to invest in the areas I mentioned. We think some of the topics that we just talked about do have strong growth: those complex packaging systems and complex designs. We're trying to find capabilities to offer more to the industry because I think there's a huge opportunity there.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1584082462595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>10,000-word exclusive interview with Arm CEO: Why \"harvest\" global technology giants?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n10,000-word exclusive interview with Arm CEO: Why \"harvest\" global technology giants?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">芯东西</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-06 19:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Why did Arm change its mind about going public? Has it been affected by the lack of cores? What do you think of the American Chip Act?</b>There is a special chip company that has never designed a chip, but it is at the center of a huge technological world. It exists in mobile phones, computers, TVs, cars and even data centers that drive everything, providing<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>Waiting for chip giants to provide core underlying technical support.</p><p>It is Arm, a joint venture founded by Apple, later acquired by Japan's SoftBank Group, and almost sold itself to the American GPU chip giant<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>The UK chip design company.</p><p>Arm licenses instruction set architecture (ISA) to companies with chip design needs and collects usage fees from them. In this way, Arm's influence radiates around the world to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Most mobile devices represented by mobile phones are inseparable from Arm's technology.</p><p>On Tuesday, Nilay Patel, chief editor-in-chief of the American technology media The Verge, and Rene Haas, the new CEO of Arm, completed a conversation. Nilay started from the most basic issues step by step, talking about how Arm makes money, whether it is affected by the core shortage, and how to Look at competition with x86 and RISC-V instruction set architectures, IPO progress and other topics that have attracted much attention from the industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/341f1d637541db18858733dd7b413359\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"670\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Arm CEO Rene Haas</p><p>In February this year, on the same day that Nvidia announced that it would abandon the acquisition of Arm, Arm's board of directors announced the appointment of Rene Haas as the new CEO. Although Rene Haas has only served as Arm CEO for half a year, he has actually worked at Arm for nearly 9 years. In his view, Arm is the Switzerland of the electronics industry and will remain as neutral as possible and not try to pick winners.</p><p>He also shared his views on the American Chip Act, arguing that it is not only important to the United States, but that in 50 years, every continent should have world-class chip factories. \"We shouldn't worry about geopolitical concerns about how the world works, because it's like the oxygen for the world to run.\"</p><p><b>The following is a complete compilation of the interview record by Xinxi:</b></p><p><b><i>01.</i></b></p><p><b>\"Almost everyone you can think of is our customer.\"</b></p><p><b>Nilay: Now Arm is facing many changes. You also have plans to lead Arm to go public in the future, and you also recently received the earnings report for the last quarter. Arm is a very interesting company, so I think we can talk about it from the beginning. Arm is a key piece of the puzzle in the entire technology ecosystem. It affects almost everyone, but its image is opaque. Consumers do not have a direct relationship with Arm, but many other companies make a carrier in the middle. identity, so let's start from scratch, what exactly does Arm do?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>As you said, Arm is indeed not a well-known company, and the outside world doesn't know us, but we think we are still very important.</p><p>First of all, we are in the semiconductor value chain of the semiconductor world. You can see Arm's technology in almost all semiconductor products or OEM products, we have it in mobile phones, laptops, and smart TVs. Just by looking at my desk, there are almost dozens of things containing Arm processors.</p><p>Arm doesn't directly build products, nor does it produce chips, but builds the design inside the chip, and we license our design to people who want to build the final product. Our most famous product is the CPU, which is the brain of almost all types of electronic devices.</p><p>Since Arm doesn't make chips and licenses brains directly to willing people, Arm's brains are everywhere. Judging from the data of the last quarter, among all semiconductor companies and OEMs in the world, Arm Manufacturing delivered 7.4 billion chips with built-in Arm CPUs, GPUs or other technologies. This is a very large number, so we are in the semiconductor value chain, but we will not build any products, we are only responsible for design, especially the design processing of microprocessors.</p><p><b>Nilay: Who are your customers?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>This question is very interesting. In the electronics industry, it seems easier to say who isn't our customer, because almost anyone you can imagine, is our customer.</p><p>Our customers include Samsung,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>, GlobalFoundries and other companies that actually manufacture chips, and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>, AMD, Nvidia, Qualcomm,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>, when you go to other parts of the world, we still have<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>And ByteDance. Almost all of them are our customers.</p><p><b>Nilay: So how do you make money from these customers? Are they just buying licenses for the design? Or buy chip samples? Do they have to pay patent licensing fees? How exactly does this all work?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>Our business model is divided into two parts.</p><p>The first part is the upfront license fee. Only after the cooperative customer pays us this money can he obtain the right to use the technology, thus having the right to further design our technology.</p><p>The second part is that if those designs end up in production and form a final product, we charge a user fee per unit based on some mathematical algorithm related to the contract.</p><p>Therefore, it can be said that we have two sources of income, one is licensing income, and the other is royalty income.</p><p><b>Nilay: If I buy a Snapdragon chip at Qualcomm, do I need to pay you? Or does Qualcomm have to pay you? Or does someone else have to pay?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>You don't need to pay, but Qualcomm does. In the case you mentioned, Qualcomm needs to inform us of the number of chips you purchased. We and Qualcomm will have a pre-negotiated franchise rate, and Qualcomm will pay us according to the negotiated rate.</p><p><b>Nilay: Samsung is designing and producing its own chips for their own smartphones, and its departments must sign conditions with each other. If I purchase a Samsung phone with a Samsung Exynos chip instead of a Qualcomm chip, how will that money flow back to you?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>That's the beauty of Arm's business model. Qualcomm uses our technology, and so does Samsung. When the Galaxy phone is shipped, we will probably receive payment from Samsung. If this product is in cooperation with Qualcomm, then we will receive payment from Qualcomm.</p><p>In short, we will all get paid. This depends on the licensing situation between us and our partners. Usually, we will cooperate with the semiconductor departments of these companies. Take Samsung as an example. If we sign a contract with the chip department, the chip department will need to pay Arm.</p><p><b>Nilay: The last question at the top of the difficulty ladder. Apple offers a very unique license called the Architecture License. They completely design their own chips, and I don't feel like they use a lot of your designs, but it's Arm's intellectual property. So when I buy a MacBook Air (M2), how do you get paid?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>It's all similar in business logic, we sign contracts with companies like Apple who pay us copyright taxes just like everyone else.</p><p><b>Nilay: Can anyone get a license like Apple? Using your IP, but completely designing your own stuff?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>Architectural licensing basically gives companies the right to make what we call Arm-compatible processors. Anyone who does this can make minor modifications to the microarchitecture, which is actually how to physically put it on the chip.</p><p>But what these companies can't do is modify the CPU, which will make the chip unable to run Arm's instructions. And this is crucial because at the end of the day, we have to maintain software compatibility. Whether it is something we build ourselves or something built by a licensed partner, as long as we are running an Arm processor, it must meet the requirements of running Arm software. requirements.</p><p>We have built very good CPUs. I think it is very difficult to build a CPU that is different or better than ours and still complies with Arm standards. Of course, this may also be my own bias.</p><p>There were many people who did this in the past, but now there are fewer, because firstly, it is difficult to do it, and secondly, it is difficult to find people who do it. It is very difficult to build this kind of talent team. Most companies will say when faced with this road: \"If I build a SoC (system-on-a-chip) and I only have so many valuable engineers, then differentiated Arm CPU It may not be a very worthwhile place to put the energy into.\" Besides, they have other places that need to be invested in, such as camera, modem or IO support.</p><p><b>Nilay: When Apple or a licensee of another architecture delivers a product, do you have a team to verify that it's running the Arm instruction set and that they're not breaking the rules? Or do you just use the honor system so you don't mess with (Apple CEO) Tim Cook too much?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We have a set of requirements for this as well as a compliance suite that facilitates our testing to fundamentally verify that what they build is Arm compliant. We will test it to see if Arm instructions and code can be run, if the compiler is corrupt, or if the correct instructions cannot be recognized. So the short answer is, we do offer a set of compliance tests for all build designs based on architectural license.</p><p><b>Nilay: Aside from the Intel and AMD CPUs that people might come across because it's kind of opaque, I think the closed loop is where you really verify that this is the Arm stuff that works the way Arm works, and I think most people don't understand that, so I want to ask this set of questions and get a feel for the business.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>These are all very important issues. One of the things that has made us almost ubiquitous throughout history is that whether it's based on Arm CPU core licensing, or based on Arm instruction set architecture licensing, they need to run software for Arm instruction set architecture, and it doesn't break.</p><p>Arm has some failed CPUs that allow scaling, aka allowing customers to add custom instructions, and while that sounds innovative and cool, what really has to do with CPU architecture is letting developers know it will run.</p><p>If a developer is writing a piece of code for an OEM and has Arm embedded, the developer doesn't want to know, doesn't need to know, or even can't know that they're designing a thermostat with a Bob chip built in, and that Bob has some additional instructions. You need to take advantage of this because they may not know if other OEM devices have Arm chips that contain these instructions.</p><p>It is important to level the playing field and ensure that software datasets look the same. Our founders have done a fantastic job of sticking to that and making it feature quick. You can see that is really benefiting us right now.</p><p><b><i>02.</i></b></p><p><b>Stay neutral and don't try to pick winners</b></p><p><b>Nilay: Many of your customers have unavoidably fierce competitive relationships in multiple fields. I've talked to a lot of executives like you. In my opinion, they do much more interpersonal negotiation than engineering and research jobs. Is it true for you too? Do you consider yourself a business politician who ensures fairness to balance competition, or do you still focus more on processor design and development?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We must be deeply involved in all kinds of interpersonal negotiations, which is what we are going to do, but we also spend a lot of time and energy developing these CPU and software ecosystems to solve the problems of partners and really ensure that the product is in a leading position.</p><p>One difference is that we deal with everyone and have to be consistent in how we approach partnerships, which is really around access to technology, access to errors, and access to people.</p><p>The world depends on Arm, and as you said, we are a bit opaque. Saying on a podcast that the world depends on Arm, someone will want to say, \"I depend on you? I don't even know you!\" But we're really managing our relationship with our partners very seriously.</p><p><b>Nilay: Let me give you another simple example. I really find this example very enlightening. A few years ago, we talked to people running HDMI (High Definition Multimedia Interface), and they set up the PlayStation (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNE\">Sony</a>A home game console released in Japan in 1994) is the industry standard for plugging into a TV. Of course, that's why HDMI doesn't work perfectly when your remote control can control everything on your TV. Frankly speaking, they have raised their hands and surrendered: \"This problem is too difficult to solve. No one wants to solve it. Everyone is messing up.\" From a political perspective, I can see why that's their answer, because it's the lowest bet, right? I just want to plug my DVD player into the TV and let the remote control control the work, but the political nature inside is insurmountable. Besides, it is not an industry standard organization, so it needs to take great risks. Arm is a company that needs to report its earnings to shareholders. If it wants to go public, it must increase its earnings for its shareholders. How will you deal with the friction and tension between them?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We're really trying to be as neutral as possible. We are called the \"Switzerland of the electronics industry\" (known for its neutrality), which is a good comparison. We don't try to pick winners, we dabble in various sub-ecosystems within the ecosystem. If you start at the bottom of the semiconductor chain, all the chipmakers like Global Foundries, Samsung, TSMC, Intel, you realize that you have to work with all of them.</p><p>We have to ensure that our technology can be built on every semiconductor process in the world, and that requires investment from all these partners. And then, all the way up, when you think about Android, Linux, Windows, and all the major operating systems that we support, we have to make sure that we're among them.</p><p>We really try not to give ourselves an edge in the competition between one side and another. I'm not sure how we'll end up getting there, but that goal means we're standing on the shoulders of a pretty large ecosystem.</p><p>It's an ecosystem with design tools, manufacturing processes, software operating systems, and middleware. We often cooperate with relevant industry chain manufacturers and create them. We don't really work much with standards bodies, but we do work a lot with all the vendors I just mentioned.</p><p>We make sure to understand all the things they're trying to do from a roadmap perspective to make sure we're as compliant as possible. In the final analysis, we license the technology to the people who build the chips, and the people who build the chips want to have the widest opportunity in the range of chips that can be made.</p><p><b><i>03.</i></b></p><p><b>With a team size of nearly 6,000 people, how does Rene Haas make decisions?</b></p><p><b>Nilay: I want to learn about other basics of Arm, how many employees does Arm have?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>The last number I saw was probably around 5,800, but with contractors added, it could be over 6,000.</p><p><b>Nilay: How are they structured? Is it all chip design, or is there a lawyer? Is the ratio of patent attorneys to chip designers 1: 1? How does this work?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>Certainly not lawyers and engineers 1: 1, that's all I can say.</p><p><b>Nilay: Some companies are 1: 1 lawyers and engineers.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We're far from that. Our staff are mainly engineers, most of whom are based in the UK. We have several different engineering sites in different parts of the UK, France and Northern Europe; There are also several design centers in Arizona and Texas; There are also quite a few design engineers in Bangalore and Noida, India.</p><p>In contrast, our legal department is very small. If shown in thumbnail scale, the ratio of engineers to lawyers is quite large. We've done a really good job in how the licensing model works and in protecting intellectual property. While there isn't a huge legal department, there do be a lot of engineers because these products are really hard to make.</p><p><b>Nilay: Who reports to you? How is your team structured?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I am the CEO, and we also have the chief financial officer, the chief personnel officer and the person in charge of legal reporting. The whole is organized around business departments, forming a vertical business structure. We have automotive, Internet of Things (IoT), infrastructure, and client businesses, as well as chief architects, sales executives, and engineering executives, who also report to me. As I listed, there are a lot of direct reports. Arm is primarily people-oriented and operates around engineering, people, legal, and finance in the business.</p><p><b>Nilay: This question is a classic question that I often ask others. You have been at Arm for 9 years and have been CEO for 6 months. How did you make your decision? What is your framework?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I have to lie a little about having dinner with Tony Fadell, whom I know you interviewed a while back, and I appreciate his habit of contrasting opinion-based decision-making with data-based decision-making. What I'm trying to say is that the greater your beard and hair, the more open you are to opinion-based decisions. Human history repeats itself because we are humans and humans repeat the same successes and mistakes.</p><p>And I am a mixture of opinion and data, and the more experienced I am, the more I rely on intuition. Experience helps. For those fans: Why Tom<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRC\">Brady</a>Still playing quarterback at 45, even though physically, he plays with people half his age? Because it was hard to lie to him, he saw everything. And business is far more complicated than professional football.</p><p>So, the short answer to your question is data and opinion, both of which I rely on, but right now probably opinion helps me more than data because my intuition is more visual.</p><p><b>Nilay: My understanding of Tom Brady is that he doesn't eat any tomatoes and eats avocado ice cream every day, are those on your menu too?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>He's a bit like Benjamin Barton, and every time I look at him, he gets younger and younger. I also have strange eating habits. The British will know that I eat yogurt and granola for lunch every day. My assistant will almost preemptively say, \"I put your yogurt in the fridge. It has your name on it.\"</p><p>Not that I would put myself in the super successful category, but I do see this from other leaders, and these things reduce the number of decisions you have to make, and I have always found it helpful to me personally.</p><p>I wear the same clothes. I eat the same food. It's something I love and don't worry about it.</p><p><b>Nilay: Now let's talk about a big decision. As we all know, Arm was involved in this storm of SoftBank Vision Fund. SoftBank raised billions of dollars for the Vision Fund. The direct acquisition of Arm is a big deal for SoftBank. They have invested in many companies and the Vision Fund is a bit volatile. Trying to sell it to Nvidia when it is stable. The industry basically lobbied against the deal as much as it could, saying, \"We don't want Nvidia to have this core CPU technology, don't do it.\" The government also came forward and said it would block the deal, and SoftBank eventually gave up.</b></p><p><b>And then you come in as the new CEO and say to take the company public, which is a big flip. Your predecessor was firmly opposed to listing Arm because of what we talked about before: the pressure to increase revenue, against the risks of a neutral and fair supplier model, after all, you can increase revenue through special deals. These pressures will come, but it will all be your decision. How did you make this decision?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We announced this shift at the end of last year when the Nvidia deal largely fell apart. After I took over in mid-February and wrapped up our financial year in March, we were finally able to talk about financial results, something we haven't done in a while.</p><p>During the Nvidia period, we were very low-key, and when we announced our revenue for the year, we set a record of over $2 billion-$2.6 billion, and we've never done more than $2 billion in the past. Our operating margin is close to 40%, but almost everyone outside believes that we are losing money because we are very low-key. If you fast forward to this quarter, it's even higher than where we ended last year: more than 50% and $700 million in revenue, of which $450 million was royalties.</p><p>My several phone calls with analysts and journalists were like, \"Where did this come from? What funny math are you doing? Is this some form of equation?\" But actually, we know we're doing a good job.</p><p>Soon after SoftBank acquired Arm, we restructured and created two business units, and I took over Classic Arm and started pivoting to other markets. This pivot is not only a business model, but also a product. We know there are some changes happening in the data center, TSMC is doing a really good job with processing, and we're making good progress with software workloads. We think we can gain something in the hyperscale market if we push our investments into some specific directives, such as SME and SVE, which are vector scaling of specific workloads on hyperscale computers.</p><p><b>Nilay: To make it clear to everyone, that's the cloud computing market, that's your Google Cloud, AWS stuff.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>That's your cloud. AWS is a valued partner for us. They announced Graviton2 along with some pretty jaw-dropping numbers, with a 40% price performance improvement relative to other architectures. So we diversify our business by addressing this not only by developing different products, but also through different parts of the business model strategy.</p><p>We know our business is going to be fine. All the financial results that you're seeing right now are fantastic, the team is doing a fantastic job with this, and these really are all from work that was done a few years ago, and you don't see royalty results per unit overnight.</p><p>We develop IP, and then the IP has to be handed over to the customer, and they have to make a chip, and that chip has to go into a product, and the product has to be qualified. All of this can take 3 to 4 years, and we feel good about where we are going, and we feel good about areas that we have been investing in, such as cloud, automotive and IoT. These are all large long-term growth areas that I think we're a great fit in.</p><p><b>Nilay: You made some bets two years ago that have now paid off handsomely, do you think investor pressure between quarters will change the way you run your company?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I think any time you're a public company, that's just part of the way the world works. I can't talk too much about what life is going to be like as a public company though, I'm subject to very strict orders to stay in my area and can't talk too much.</p><p><b>Nilay: One of the few lawyers in the firm is running into the room.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>Haha, so I can't really say much about it. But I can say we are very confident in the long-term growth of the markets involved.</p><p><b><i>04.</i></b></p><p><b>For Arm, cars will be a big market</b></p><p><b>Nilay: You just expressed confidence in automotive, IoT, and cloud. The cloud market exists and is growing, and Arm has done something about it. I've talked to a lot of CEOs in the automotive industry, and we spent a lot of time on The Verge cast talking about smart homes and the Internet of Things. But those markets haven't really turned around, and as Arm CEO, can you push that? Or is it more like \"we just need to prepare the design and product for the car to truly become a network computer on wheels\"?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>When people think of electronic devices in cars, they automatically turn to autonomous driving, etc. Think about what's inside the car, and the number of processes in the car. The dashboard is all digital and computerized, the drivetrain, and whatever has to do with the mirrors and brakes, all of which are rapidly moving to and operating on the Arm. A lot of what's happening in smart cars is moving towards Arm.</p><p>In the powertrain, you have many old standalone electronic control units (ECUs), they may have an old proprietary microcontroller and are not identical to the rest of the car. All of these ECUs are being redesigned, inside each car, there may be 50-70 ECUs, and each one may have an old proprietary microcontroller, they don't have connections, don't have a memory management unit. Therefore, with the addition of automatic and advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), cars can become highly connected devices, which is an area Arm wants to develop.</p><p>To us, cars are a bit of a sandbox of multiple technologies: dash, drivetrain, drivetrain/ECU. By the way, autonomy is a huge opportunity for us.</p><p>Getting back to the data center space, in terms of computing, what really matters in a car is performance and efficiency, you can't have a server in your trunk running an electric car, and some cars today are like that. That will improve over time, and we are very optimistic about the automotive market, where we will grow very fast as well.</p><p><b>Nilay: So, are you going to ask some of your engineers to say, go find ECUs, engine controllers or body control modules that can work across cars, so that someone at Nvidia can come and get the license and sell it to Ford?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>This is actually already happening. These CPU efficiency, power, and functional safety for cars are all important. You must have all the safeguards in place to ensure that it can operate safely. Some people do this in software through compute libraries, but most people prefer to do this in hardware, where it is safer and more efficient to perform.</p><p>We have developed automotive processors and graphics processors with embedded functional safety. Before we didn't do that, before we would basically just roll out a generic thing to use anywhere you want. It's one of the things that we've made significant changes in the last few years.</p><p><b>Nilay: We're talking about the future now. Let's bring the topic back to the present. We have been in a state of chip shortage for a long time, and this \"core shortage\" may not end. Both Intel and Nvidia had less than satisfactory quarterly results, and Intel said they would actually raise prices. Where would you be in a chip shortage? Is that something that's affecting you right now? Is that something you see coming and going? You're kind of out of touch with this actual part.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We're out of the idea of not making anything, but we do have to do with chips again, and our royalty model has to do with components that people order.</p><p>Going back to the earlier discussion, we are very diverse in terms of end markets. Another thing that's happening is that more and more CPUs are being used in these SoCs. The application processor of the mobile phone may use one CPU, while the cluster used for computing is now 9 or 10 different CPUs. You have 10 CPUs, which is just the application processor (AP), and then consider touch sensors, monitors and cameras. We're seeing that although sales in certain markets such as smartphones have been heading towards weakness, we've been protected by it from a product direction perspective.</p><p><b>Nilay: Did you hear our episode with Willy Shih? Here he is, telling us about the toilet paper, and then talking about the manufacture of chips and LCD monitors. Because they had too many SKUs and sold too many types of paper, they decided to reduce the types of toilet paper. In the end, this decision solved a large part of the problem.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>right. So now think about a car that needs all sorts of diodes, capacitors, resistors, and thermal sensors, not just because it's hard to get 3nm, but it's hard to build a fabs.</p><p>You can tell by my hair color that I've been in this industry for a long time. I've been in a business cycle. People start to stop R&D and slow down projects. They gradually stop trying new things and stop innovating.</p><p>I think it's because everything is going digital, the super high demand for electronics and how it's going to change our lives. What are our metrics? Licensing and new design beginnings have never been better for us because it is across all markets.</p><p><b><i>05.</i></b></p><p><b>\"In 50 years, every continent should have world-class fabs\"</b></p><p><b>Nilay: What you're saying is one of the reasons why R&D is picking up pace. The world is beginning to re-recognize the prospect of globalization, and the world is no longer so peaceful. The U.S. just passed the Chip Act to really incentivize chip manufacturing and various design investments. TSMC is building in the U.S., and Intel just broke ground on a new factory in Ohio. Do you see considering that everyone knows that we rely heavily on a few fabs in Taiwan, which is a geopolitical hotspot. We need to transfer this critical technological dependence to our own countries. Is this something you would be involved in, or are you just watching?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We will definitely be involved in this. As long as we can expand the need for this by talking to political officials in any country, we will help. It's not just an Arm issue, it's an industry issue. A single point of failure in anything you're doing is not a good thing, the pandemic has exposed a lot and people are starting to keep their eyes open to what things are the real problem. I am so grateful to the people who are pushing the chip bill, and that's really very important.</p><p>Not only is this important for the United States, every continent should have its own world-class wafer fab in the next 50 years from now. We don't have to worry about geopolitics, the fabs will be like the oxygen for the world to revolve after.</p><p><b>Nilay: Now the cutting-edge process nodes are mainly controlled by TSMC, which is far ahead with 5nm and 3nm technologies. Few people can compete at this level. Your smartphones use the most cutting-edge technologies, while those used in cars are basically mature process nodes (40nm, 14nm). The processes are severely limited, and no one is investing in building these fabs anymore. What do you think of this outcome? What do you think of this strict restriction on TSMC, which has cutting-edge technology? Everyone wants to improve building capabilities on these things, but no one wants to improve building capabilities for old things.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I'm not a manufacturing expert, but what I can tell you is that we're seeing a lot getting done about how to convert certain fabs into new jobs.</p><p>Just like you said it was. People are usually a little reluctant to put a lot of money into this, and you might think that you can convert the fab that we are building into some kind of process technology and turn it into a logic fab? Is there a storage fab that can be converted to a logic fab? But this is a very complicated problem because there are only so many factories in the world, and there are only so many people who know how to build these things, and they are all public companies and have to go and make money, in short, it's a very complicated matrix.</p><p>Thirty years ago, Japan's logic fabs were world-class and spread across the country. Now that number has basically dropped to zero. Japan is looking for ways to change that to bring more fabs back online. I think you're going to see a lot of things in the U.S. in other countries that have done the chip bill and that sort of thing. I think South Korea's fabs have huge capabilities, but it is also a complicated and difficult problem.</p><p><b><i>06.</i></b></p><p><b>\"Intel CEO did a lot of the right things\"</b></p><p><b>Nilay: How dependent is Arm on TSMC? It feels like a lot of companies are realizing that they really depend on one company. It's an industry leader for a reason, but there's a lot of dependency there. Have you considered this dependency when designing new processor types or architectures?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We work closely with TSMC. All fabs are important to us, and Arm will remain neutral.</p><p>Seriously, they all matter. In an ideal world, we have a lot of people who can build cutting-edge technology. Generally speaking, in smart phones and data centers, it is usually the most cutting-edge technology, because everyone is really trying to maximize performance as much as possible, which is not the case in automotive and industrial fields. Therefore, any fab that adopts cutting-edge processes is very important to us.</p><p><b>Nilay: As we all know, Intel has long been an integrated design and fab enterprise. They were basically blown away by TSMC, and now, they have a new CEO who is breaking that with plans to open up their factories to others. You just said that Intel is a customer, are you working with them?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We wanted TSMC to make a lot of Arm products, and they did. We expect Intel to do the same.</p><p><b>Nilay: Are you optimistic that Intel can do that?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I think (Intel CEO) Pat has done a lot of things right. His work is hard and extremely well done, and we are more than willing to do more with him.</p><p><b>Nilay: Another political answer, but I have to ask. In terms of the chip bill, people are very excited about the passage and signing of the bill. Intel has received a lot of criticism for announcing cuts in capital expenditures and increased Dividend rather than putting it into fabs. Broadly speaking, do you think this is the right move? What timing should we look for for fabs in the US?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I wouldn't doubt Pat's decisions about how he spends his money. Getting back to what you said, we're talking about a single point of failure. I feel like we need to move quickly, get these facilities up and running as quickly as possible, get them online, build more redundancy, and reduce the risk of single points of failure. So we need more fabs.</p><p><b>Nilay: What kind of timing do you make your decisions based on? If a bill is passed today, or someone announces a new fab today, and we won't see it for five years, how do you see the timing of your decision?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>After six months as CEO, I am still learning, and I have a lot of responsibilities. One of the biggest responsibilities is to think about the problems five years from now.</p><p>Because of the way our business operates, the process from designing the product to seeing the revenue is quite long. We are thinking about where the opportunities are, where investments need to be made, where the threats are, and the direction of system and software design.</p><p>Most of my energy is spent thinking about what the world will look like in 2025 and 2026, not next quarter.</p><p><b><i>07.</i></b></p><p><b>Stay tuned to PC, Arm is making a lot of progress</b></p><p><b>Nilay: There are some long-term bets that are more focused on consumers than replacing servers in the trunk of a car. At present, the hottest trend related to Arm is that Apple has shifted from Intel x86 processors to self-developed M-series processors licensed based on the Arm instruction set architecture to support their Macs, which not only improves battery life and performance, but also helps Apple reduce procurement costs. Now, thanks to these chips, Mac is basically the best laptop you can buy. This reflects that Arm architecture processors can also achieve great success in the PC market. Can Arm help other industries do these things? Or just design, and hope that Qualcomm can make something that allows Microsoft and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell</a>A chip that can do this too? From your perspective, how do you see the relationship with the industry?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I think we can do more, and probably need to do more. It's not because we need to help the industry, but because these products are really complicated to build.</p><p>Let's talk about architectural licensing first. Previously, many manufacturers believed that you needed to obtain architectural licenses to build a better CPU to compete with Arm. However, the IPC instructions per clock of the microprocessor are only one aspect that can really change the design. Memory subsystems, interconnects, The size of the cache, how it interfaces with the rest of the SoC, and ensuring that the SoC is in a multi-chip package with chip and chip interconnects.</p><p>Some clients are very good at these things and can figure it out, so they don't need too much help from us. But as time goes on, more and more businesses will need Arm to do more, and that's a trend we're watching very closely.</p><p><b>Nilay: From your point of view, as long as it's all Arm chips, it doesn't matter who wins, does it? If Apple takes 100% of the laptop market, that's great for you. If Microsoft,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">Hewlett Packard</a>And Qualcomm to be able to pair competitive Windows on Arm laptops and take a 50% share, you can still get paid. Does it feel like whoever wins, you will win?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>If the product ships with the Arm instruction set architecture, that's a good thing for us, if an alternative device is used, it means it doesn't use the Arm instruction set architecture, which is not so good for us.</p><p>When I first took office, I took a small moniker for my own name on the website and worked with the PR team to use the slogan \"Arm will show up wherever computing happens\". It doesn't matter a thermostat or microwave oven, Polycom, or a smart TV, laptop, etc., these are all based on Arm.</p><p><b>Nilay: You just said where the computing happens, for most people, the computing happens on their laptops and desktops. I've been hearing about Windows on Arm (WoA) for 13 years and it didn't happen, but are you just content to let Apple eat the industry? Because there are still other people's instruction sets in this extremely huge industry, such as Intel's instruction set.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I used to work for a company that developed Windows RT as the general manager of that product line. Before joining Arm, I worked at Nvidia for many years (7 years as VP and General Manager of the Computing Products Business Unit at Nvidia), and we made great progress on this because we felt the real tipping point was there.</p><p>The turning point did exist, and during my first news interview on my Windows RT laptop, I remember meeting with a group of reporters and the first question they asked me was: \"Does it run iTunes?\" We're like, \"Ah, shit. No.\" It doesn't run because we don't have ports and Apple isn't helping us.</p><p>Fast forward to 10 years later, streaming audio has arrived, and no one really cares about these apps. If you consider all the apps that run on a PC or phone, it's hard to say \"OK, what native apps aren't really running on Arm?\" They were almost all there.</p><p>Stay tuned for the PC thing. We are making a lot of progress. You can see what the features are through laptops in other ecosystems. I think it's a wake-up call for the industry in terms of the potential of these features, and we're going to stick with it.</p><p><b>Nilay: That wake-up call was due to a very wealthy company spending a lot of money on your instruction set customization, right? That's their leverage. Are you saying that we as Arm can develop products that are as efficient per watt as M-series chips and then sell those designs to Qualcomm? Or does it come down to Qualcomm-which I believe also has architectural licenses-doing it itself?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I'm 100% confident of that. You don't need a schema license to do this.</p><p><b><i>08.</i></b></p><p><b>How to win in GPU?</b></p><p><b>Nilay: On the other hand there are laptops, desktops, and even automakers. I went to sit in a (American BEV) Rivian, and I was told that GPUs and Unreal Engines drive cars. Graphics performance has become the point of differentiation for various products in the industry, and Arm has a well-named new GPU, Immortalis. Apple is not using your GPU. If you think about the big GPU vendors, they don't really think about performance per watt, do they? With high-end Nvidia cards, you just need to have a nuclear reactor in the basement to run that thing, which is great. It looks good. How will you win in GPU?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>When you count it by units, we're actually the # 1 supplier of GPUs on the planet. I remember that during the Nvidia acquisition, its CEO Jensen Huang put forward a key point: We will be faithful to our review, and performance per watt matters. We're not going to risk doing a hundred watt TDP GPU and try to make a difference in that space. We're going to try in the 1 watt range, optimizing in that range. Then there are certain areas where you can start doing more in terms of multiple GPUs.</p><p>We're starting to see people thinking about doing machine learning extensions and possibly doing these things inside the GPU. This is interesting because GPUs can benefit from some level of AI and machine learning to do shader drawing in a more efficient way. In the meantime, you can start working or move ML workloads onto the GPU. There's a lot of interesting innovations that will be able to happen on our GPUs, and we're investing heavily in that space. To be clear, we will remain in an area where performance and efficiency matter.</p><p><b>Nilay: Yeah, you deliver a lot of GPUs. It is part of the SoC package for many customers. Performance per watt leads for customers with their own GPU or their own GPU extensions. Is it the same deal that doesn't matter at the end of the day because they are shipping the Arm instruction set architecture and you still get paid? Or is it \"we have to stay competitive here or they will leave altogether\"?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>The GPU is slightly different from the CPU because the API is decimative. Performance per watt does matter. We do a lot to level the competition, and with Immortalis, are leading the way in many areas. Another thing that is very critical for these GPUs is the efficiency of the interface between the CPU and the GPU, which is also an area where we invest heavily, but we have to be vigilant in the GPU market, which is, as you said, very competitive. You let people do it themselves, you let other third parties do the product. At the same time, this is an area that we are very focused on, so we will invest. I think machine learning AI vectors for future use with GPUs are a huge opportunity for us.</p><p><b>Nilay: GPUs are a huge investment. You have to spend a lot of money to compete and win the design. Are you making this investment because you can win back these products and get more from other custom GPUs over time? Or just to be competitive, do you need competitive GPUs?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I go back to machine learning and artificial intelligence. If you have a heterogeneous computing system, and you have a CPU, GPU, and NPU, I think at some point in time the compiler will get smart enough that they may point to parts of the code that can run better on the GPU versus the CPU.</p><p>If you look at the whole cluster as a complete subsystem, I think there are long-term benefits from that. For us, especially when designing a system-on-chip, we're trying to make all sorts of major trade-offs. Sometimes I don't want that workload to run on the CPU because it consumes unnecessary power and I probably have transistors in the GPU that I might be able to use if I wasn't drawing. We think GPUs are a very critical strategic component.</p><p><b><i>09.</i></b></p><p><b>Only Arm and RISC-V options</b></p><p><b>Nilay: GPU competitors, in one aspect, are obvious. CPU competitors seem more difficult to identify, who are your competitors?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>In terms of CPU? I think there are probably only two options, which is biased, but I don't even think there's a real choice.</p><p>From an instruction set architecture perspective, if you want to build an SoC based on x86, there are only two companies in the world that will do it for you: AMD or Intel. Then there's RISC-V, which is a completely different part because it's open source and many different versions exist.</p><p>RISC-V is a scalable processor, which means that its strengths are its weaknesses. In my opinion, scalability leads to fragmentation. I think it hurts them in terms of getting any kind of software ecosystem. It's really hard to look around and say, \"What are the major software ecosystems that run consistently on RISC-V processors?\" No.</p><p>So, where do we see RISC-V in the system-on-chip today? It is located in the deep embedded part of the chip, unaware of its existence by external programmers.</p><p>Here's an analogy I can give. If you put something in the microwave and press the start button on the 30-second timer, that display may be Arm, because there may be a small piece of open-source application code running on it. The timer that actually turns the oven on and turns it off after 30 seconds might be RISC-V.</p><p>These are really the only two options available. I mean, all of these are small companies, but those companies really don't have a lot of appeal in terms of market share.</p><p><b>Nilay: Do you see Arm and RISC-V retiring out the outdated x86 world?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>x86 has been around for a long time and has a very strong installed base, and I certainly don't want to do anything to belittle what they are doing. I think the challenge with x86 is that it only comes from two companies, which in itself is a limiting factor in terms of how far it can go.</p><p><b>Nilay: These two companies, Intel and AMD, both have their own fabs, as does TSMC. There's another manufacturing conundrum, and over time, these manufacturers seem to say, \"Look, we're really good at Arm. We're going to be good at RISC-V, we don't want to be good at x86 anymore.\"</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>I'd even wonder if they're really pretty good at Arm already. Needless to say, this is not easy.</p><p><b>Nilay: Are there any other competitors like RISC-V? I mean, RISC-V is another thing like Windows on Arm. I've heard about it for a decade and it seems to be in some of the apps you're talking about.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>It's all about software. At the end of the day, it's about having a rich ecosystem of developers who can take advantage of writing software. For us, we think there are 15 to 25 million developers programming on Arm. Some people know they are programming on Arm because they take advantage of the instruction set, but there are others who don't because it's abstracted out. The compiler and open source libraries are there, which makes it easy to run.</p><p>For example: Smart TVs. If you try to write new menus for smart TVs and try to link to the version of Android that is essentially the underlying kernel, it's Arm. It's all optimized for Arm. In terms of self-reporting, this is a big plus. These libraries all exist and have been optimized. Let's say you tried it on RISC-V. If Company A adds 17 new instructions to make their RISC-V look a little different, then developers won't know this. How will developers take advantage of this? RISC-V may eventually be reduced to the lowest common denominator.</p><p><b>Nilay: A few months ago, Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon participated in this show. I asked him the same Windows on Arm question, and he kind of blamed the software developers, saying, \"Look, Microsoft,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>And other big independent software vendors have to join, they have to make these things quickly. \" You just said it's all about software, did you spend time with those companies saying, \"Look, you have to shift your focus to the future, this is Arm?\"</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>By these companies do you mean Microsoft or Adobe?</p><p><b>Nilay: Both.</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>Yeah, yeah. We spend a lot of time on both, and that's where the battle is ultimately to win. You've been looking at it like me for 10, 12 years, and it's closer than ever because not only is there more work being done on the original apps, but more of these native apps have been written for Arm.</p><p>Take a look at the two different operating systems in the world. Other operating systems use their names in their code. View all Microsoft applications running only on their system. They are all ported in this way, and as a result, all these Microsoft apps can run on your phone. We're pretty much the same, and I think the turning point will come when there's a lot of pretty good CPU products on the market that can compete with others. As far as your point is concerned, the product proves that you don't have to sacrifice performance and game-changing battery life in form factor.</p><p><b><i>10.</i></b></p><p><b>Epilogue: What's next for Arm?</b></p><p><b>Nilay: I always ask people what's next for their company, but I'll ask you a more specific question. You announced that Arm will go public in March 2023. As the time approaches, can you deliver on this goal?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>Unfortunately, we are at a stage right now where I can't give too much away.</p><p><b>Nilay: Okay, what's next for Arm?</b></p><p><b>Rene Haas:</b>We will continue to invest in the areas I mentioned. We think some of the topics that we just talked about do have strong growth: those complex packaging systems and complex designs. We're trying to find capabilities to offer more to the industry because I think there's a huge opportunity there.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/g70BOooqglRyEZ4H5QBwwA\">芯东西</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131603997b7396ff2c6f104ae3d43a0f","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/g70BOooqglRyEZ4H5QBwwA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106272938","content_text":"Arm为何改变主意要上市？是否被缺芯潮殃及？如何看待《美国芯片法案》？有一家特殊的芯片公司，不曾设计一颗芯片，却处在庞大的科技世界的中心，存在于手机、电脑、电视、汽车甚至是驱动一切的数据中心里，为苹果、高通、三星等芯片巨头提供核心的底层技术支撑。它就是Arm，一家先是被苹果合资创办、后被日本软银集团收购、又差点卖身给美国GPU芯片巨头英伟达的英国芯片设计公司。Arm将指令集架构（ISA）授权给有芯片设计需求的公司，从它们手中收取使用费。通过这种方式，Arm的影响力辐射全球，以智能手机为代表的绝大多数移动设备，都离不开Arm的技术。本周二，美国科技媒体The Verge的首席主编Nilay Patel和Arm新任CEO Rene Haas完成了一场对谈，Nilay从最基本的问题循序渐进，聊到Arm是如何赚钱的、是否受到缺芯潮的影响、如何看待与x86和RISC-V指令集架构的竞争、IPO上市进展等颇受产业关注的话题。▲Arm CEO Rene Haas今年2月，在英伟达宣布放弃收购Arm的同一天，Arm董事会宣布任命Rene Haas为新任CEO。虽说Rene Haas担任Arm CEO的时间仅有半年之久，但他实际已经在Arm工作了近9年。在他看来，Arm是电子行业的瑞士，将尽可能保持中立，不试图挑选赢家。他也分享了对《美国芯片法案》的看法，认为这不仅对美国很重要，而且50年后，每个大陆都应该有世界级的芯片工厂。“我们不应该担心地缘政治对世界运作方式的担忧，因为它就像世界运转的氧气一样。”以下是芯东西对访谈实录的完整编译：01.“几乎所有你能想到的人，都是我们的客户。”Nilay：现在Arm面临着很多变化，你也有计划未来带领Arm上市，且最近也收到了上一季度的收益报告。Arm是一家非常有意思的企业，所以，我想我们可以从最开始谈起。Arm是整个科技生态系统中的一块关键拼图，它几乎影响着所有人，但它的形象又是不透明的，消费者并没有和Arm产生什么直接关系，而是由很多其他公司在中间做一个载体的身份，所以，让我们从头开始，Arm到底是做什么的？Rene Haas：就像你说的这样，Arm确实不一个众所周知的企业，外界也不是了解我们，但我们自认为我们还是非常重要的。首先，我们处在半导体世界的半导体价值链中。你几乎可以在所有半导体产品或者OEM产品中看见Arm的技术，我们在手机、笔记本电脑、智能电视中。光是看一下我的办公桌上，几乎就有几十个含有Arm处理器的东西。Arm并不直接构建产品，也不生产芯片，而是构建芯片里面的设计，我们把我们的设计许可给想要构建最终产品的人。我们最著名的产品就是CPU，它几乎是所有类型的电子设备的大脑。由于Arm不制造芯片，直接将大脑授权给有意愿的人，所以到处都是Arm的大脑。从上个季度的数据来看，在全球所有半导体公司和OEM之间，Arm制造交付了74亿颗内置了Arm CPU、GPU或者其他技术的芯片，这是一个非常庞大的数字，所以我们处在半导体价值链中，但我们不会构建任何产品，我们只负责设计，尤其是对微处理器的设计处理。Nilay：你们的客户是谁呢？Rene Haas：这个问题非常有意思。在电子行业，说谁不是我们的客户似乎更容易，因为你能想象到的几乎任何人，都是我们的客户。我们的客户有三星、台积电、格罗方德等实际生产制造芯片的企业，还有英特尔、AMD、英伟达、高通、亚马逊、微软、谷歌，当你去世界其他地方时，我们还有阿里巴巴、腾讯和字节跳动。几乎所有人都是我们的客户。Nilay：那您是如何从这些客户那里赚钱的呢？他们只是购买设计的授权许可吗？还是购买芯片样片？他们是否需要支付专利许可费呢？这些到底都是怎么运作的？Rene Haas：我们的商业模式分为两部分。第一部分是前期许可费，合作客户支付给我们这笔款项后，才能获得技术的使用权，从而有权在我们的技术上进行进一步的设计。第二部分是，如果这些设计最终投入生产并形成了最终产品，我们就会根据与合同相关的一些数学算法按单位收取使用费。因此，可以说我们有两部分收入来源，一是授权许可收入，另一个是使用费收入。Nilay：如果我在高通买了一块骁龙芯片，需要给你们付钱吗？或者是高通必须给你们付钱？又或者是别人得付？Rene Haas：你不需要支付，但高通需要。在你说的这个案例里，高通需要告知我们你购买的芯片数量，我们和高通会有一个预先商量好的特许使用费率，高通会按照商量好的费率来我们支付款项。Nilay：三星在为他们自己的智能手机设计生产自己的芯片，它里面的部门之间还必须相互签署条件。如果我购买了带有三星Exynos芯片的三星手机，而不是高通芯片，这笔钱会如何回流给您？Rene Haas：这就是Arm商业模式的绝妙之处。高通使用我们的技术，三星也是。当Galaxy手机发货时，我们很可能就会收到三星的付款了，如果这款产品是和高通合作的，那我们就会获得高通这边的付款。总之，我们都会获得付款。这具体取决于我们与合作伙伴之间的授权许可情况，通常情况下，都会与这些公司的半导体部门合作，以三星为例，如果我们与芯片部门签订合同，那么芯片部门将需要向Arm支付款项。Nilay：到了难度阶梯最顶部的最后一个疑问。苹果公司提供了一种非常独特的许可证，称为架构许可证。他们完全设计自己的芯片，我不觉得他们使用了很多你们的设计，但这是Arm的知识产权。所以当我购买MacBook Air（M2）时，您如何获得报酬？Rene Haas：在商业逻辑上都是类似的，我们和苹果这样的公司签订合同，这些公司像其他人一样向我们支付版权税。Nilay：任何人都可以获得像苹果那样的授权许可吗？使用你们的IP，但完全设计自己的东西？Rene Haas：架构许可基本上赋予了公司制造我们所谓的Arm兼容处理器的权利。任何这样做的人，都可以对微架构进行细微的修改，实际上就是如何物理地把放置在芯片上。但这些公司不能做的是修改CPU，这会使芯片无法运行Arm的指令。而这一点至关重要，因为归根结底，我们必须保持软件兼容性，无论是我们自己构建的东西，还是拥有授权许可的合作方构建的东西，只要在运行Arm处理器，就都必须符合运行Arm软件的要求。我们打造了非常好的CPU，我觉得要构建一个和我们不同或更好，同时仍然符合Arm标准的CPU是非常困难的，当然，这也有可能是我自己的偏见。过去这么做的人有很多，但现在变少了，因为一是很难做，二是很难找到做这件事的人。要建立这种人才团队的难度非常大，大多数公司面对这条路都会说：“如果我构建一个SoC（系统级芯片），而我只有这么多宝贵的工程师，那么差异化的Arm CPU可能并不是一个非常值得投入精力的地方。” 况且他们还有其他需要投入的地方，比如摄像头、调制解调器或IO的支持。Nilay：当苹果或其他架构的被授权方交付产品时，您是否有团队去验证它正在运行Arm指令集并且他们没有违反规则？或者您只是使用荣誉系统，这样就不会太惹到（苹果CEO）蒂姆·库克了？Rene Haas：我们有一套这方面的要求以及一个合规性套件，方便我们进行测试，以从根本上验证他们构建的内容是否符合Arm标准。我们会针对它进行测试，检测是否可以运行Arm指令和代码，编译器是否损坏，或者是否无法识别正确的指令。所以简短的回答是，我们确实会为所有基于架构许可的构建设计提供一套合规性测试。Nilay：除了人们可能遇到的英特尔和AMD CPU，因为它有点不透明，我认为闭环是你真正验证这是以Arm的方式运作的Arm东西的地方，我想大多数人都不理解这一点，所以我想问这组问题并感受一下业务。Rene Haas：这些都是非常重要的问题。让我们在历史上几乎无处不在的一件事是，无论是基于Arm CPU内核授权，还是基于Arm指令集架构授权，他们都需要运行针对Arm指令集架构的软件，并且不会中断。Arm有一些失败的CPU，它们允许扩展，也就是允许客户添加自定义指令，虽然这听起来很创新而且很酷，但真正与CPU架构相关的是让开发人员知道它会的运行。如果开发人员正在为OEM编写一段代码并且嵌入了Arm，则开发人员不想知道、不需要知道，甚至无法知道他们正在设计一个内置Bob芯片的恒温器，并且Bob有一些额外的说明。你需要利用这一点，因为他们可能不知道其他OEM设备是否具有包含这些指令的Arm芯片。公平竞争并确保软件数据集看起来相同非常重要。我们的创始人在坚持这一点并使其具有快速的特点上做得非常出色。你可以看到这一点现在确实在让我们受益。02.保持中立，不试图挑选赢家Nilay：你的很多客户在多个领域都有着毫不避讳的激烈竞争关系。我和很多像你这样的高管谈过。在我看来，相比工程和研究类的工作，他们做的人际交涉工作要多得多。你是否也是如此？你认为自己是一个确保公平以平衡竞争关系的商业政治家，还是你仍然把较多心思放在处理器的设计和研发方面？Rene Haas：我们肯定深陷在人际交涉的各种事情里，这本来就是我们要去做的事，但我们也花费了大量的时间和精力来开发这些CPU和软件生态系统，以解决合作伙伴的问题，真正确保产品处于领先地位。有一点不同的是，我们与每个人打交道，都必须保持我们在处理合作伙伴关系的方式上的一致性，这实际上是围绕对技术的访问、对错误的访问以及对人员的访问。世界依赖于Arm，正如你所说的那样，我们有点不透明，在播客上说世界依赖于Arm，有人听会想说：“我依赖你们？我都不认识你们！” 但我们真的在非常认真地管理与合作伙伴的关系。Nilay：让我再举一个简单的例子，我真觉得这个例子很有启发性。几年前，我们与运行HDMI（高清多媒体接口）的人交谈过，是他们树立了将PlayStation（索尼于1994年在日本发售的家用游戏机）插进电视的行业标准。当然，这也是当你的遥控器就可以控制电视上的所有东西时，HDMI成了无法完美运行的原因所在。坦白说，他们已经举起双手投降了：“这个问题太难解决了，没有人愿意搞定这件事，大家都在摆烂了。” 从政治角度来看，我明白为什么这是他们的答案，因为这是最低的赌注，对吧？我只是想把我的DVD播放器插入电视，然后让遥控器去控制工作，但里面的政治性质是无法逾越的，况且它也不是行业标准机构，需要冒很大的风险大。Arm是一家需要向股东报告收益的企业，想要上市，那就必须为自己的股东增加收益。这之间的摩擦、紧张您会如何处理？Rene Haas：我们真的是尽量保持中立。我们被称为“电子工业界的瑞士”（以中立态度著称），这是一个不错的比照。我们不会试图挑选赢家，我们会涉足生态系统中的各个子生态系统。如果你从半导体链的最底层开始，格芯（Global Foundries）、三星、台积电、英特尔等所有芯片制造商，你会意识到你必须和他们所有人合作。我们必须确保我们的技术能够建立在世界上每一种半导体工艺上，这需要所有这些合作伙伴的投资。然后，一路向上，当你想到Android、Linux、Windows以及我们支持的所有主要操作系统时，我们必须确保我们也在其中。我们真的尽量不让自己在一方和另一方的竞争中占据优势。我不确定我们最终会如何达到这一点，但这个目标就意味着我们站在一个相当大的生态系统的肩膀上。这是一个生态系统，里面有设计工具、制造过程、软件操作系统和中间件。我们经常与相关产业链厂商合作，并创建它们。我们并没有真正与标准机构进行太多合作，但我们确实与我刚刚提到的所有厂商进行了大量合作。我们确保从路线图的角度了解他们正在尝试做的所有事情，以确保我们尽可能地合规。归根结底，我们将技术许可给构建芯片的人，构建芯片的人想要在可以制造芯片的范围里拥有最广泛的机会。03.团队规模近6000人，Rene Haas如何做决策？Nilay：我想了解一下Arm的其他基础知识，Arm有多少员工？Rene Haas：我看到的最后一个人数可能是5800人左右，但加上承包商的话，可能在6000人以上。Nilay：它们的结构如何？都是芯片设计，还是有律师？专利代理人和芯片设计师的比例是1：1吗？这是如何运作的？Rene Haas：当然不是律师和工程师1:1，我就只能说这么多了。Nilay：有些公司是1:1的律师和工程师。Rene Haas：我们离那种程度还很远。我们的员工主要是工程师，其中大多数在英国。我们在英国、法国和北欧的不同地区有几个不同的工程站点；在美国的亚利桑那州和德克萨斯州还有几处设计中心；在印度的班加罗尔和诺伊达也有不少设计工程师。相比之下，我们的法律部门非常小。如果用缩略图比例来显示，工程师和律师的比例是相当大的。我们在许可模式运作的方式上以及保护知识产权方面做得非常好。虽然没有庞大的法律部门，但确实有很多工程师，因为这些产品真的很难制造。Nilay：谁向你汇报？你的团队是如何构成的？Rene Haas：我是CEO，我们还有首席财务官、首席人事官和法律报告负责人，整体是围绕业务部门组织起来的，形成了一个垂直的业务结构。我们拥有汽车、物联网（IoT）、基础设施和客户端业务，还有首席架构师、销售主管和工程主管，这些人也向我汇报。正如我列出的这样，有很多直接下属。Arm主要以人为本，围绕业务中的工程、人、法律和财务运作。Nilay：这个问题是我经常问别人的经典问题。你在Arm工作了9年，担任CEO已经6个月。您是如何做决定的？您的框架是什么？Rene Haas：我不得不稍微撒个小谎，说我和托尼·法德尔共进晚餐，我知道你不久前采访过他，我很欣赏他习惯将基于意见的决策与基于数据的决策进行对比。我想说的是，你的胡须和头发越白，你就越能接受基于意见的决定。人类的历史会重演，因为我们是人类，人类会重复同样的成功和错误。而我是意见和数据的混合体，经验越丰富，我就越依赖直觉。经验有帮助。对于那些球迷来说：为什么汤姆·布雷迪仍然在45岁时打四分卫，尽管在身体上，他和年龄只有他一半的人一起踢球？因为要骗他很难，他什么都看出来了。而商业远比职业足球复杂。所以，对你的问题的简短回答是数据和意见，两者我都依赖，但现在可能意见比数据更能帮助我，因为我的直觉更直观。Nilay：我对汤姆·布雷迪的理解是，他不吃任何西红柿，每天都吃鳄梨冰淇淋，这些也在你的菜单上吗？Rene Haas：他有点像本杰明·巴顿，每次看他，他都越来越年轻。我也有奇怪的饮食习惯。英国人会知道，我每天午餐都会吃酸奶和格兰诺拉麦片。我的助理几乎会先发制人地说：“我把你的酸奶放在冰箱里了。上面有你的名字。”并不是说我会把自己归为超级成功的那一类，但我确实从其他领导者那里也看到了这一点，这些东西减少了你必须做出的决定的数量，且我一直发现它对我个人是有帮助的。我穿同样的衣服。我吃同样的食物。这是我喜欢的东西，而且不用担心。Nilay：现在让我们谈谈一个重大决定。众所周知，Arm卷入了软银愿景基金的这场风暴，软银为愿景基金筹集了数十亿美元，直接收购Arm对软银来说是笔大买卖，他们投资了很多公司，还在愿景基金有点不稳定时试图将其卖给英伟达。业界基本上尽其所能地游说反对这笔交易，并表示：“我们不希望英伟达拥有这种核心的CPU技术，不要这样做。” 政府也出面表示将阻止这笔交易，最终软银放弃了。然后你以新任CEO的身份到来，说要让公司上市，这是一个很大的翻转。你的前任曾坚决反对让Arm上市，原因是我们之前谈到的：必须增加收入的压力，对抗中立公平的供应商模式会面临的风险，毕竟你可以通过特殊交易来增加收入。这些压力会到来，但这都将是你的决定，你是怎么做出这个决定的？Rene Haas：在去年年底，英伟达交易基本分崩离析时，我们宣布了这种转变。在我于2月中旬接手并于3月结束我们的财政年度之后，我们终于能够谈论财务业绩，这件事有一段时间没做过了。在英伟达时期，我们非常低调，当我们宣布今年的收入时，我们创下了超过20亿美元的记录——26亿美元，过去我们从未做过超过20亿美元的事。我们的营业利润率接近40%，但外界几乎都认为我们正在亏损，因为我们非常低调。如果你快进到本季度，它甚至比我们去年结束时的水平还要高：超过50%和7亿美元的收入，其中4.5亿美元是特许权使用费。我与分析师和记者们的几次电话都像是，“这是从哪里来的？你在做什么有趣的数学？这是某种形式的方程式吗？” 但实际上，我们知道我们做得很好。软银收购Arm后不久，我们重组并创建了两个业务部门，我接管了经典的Arm，开始转向其他市场。这个支点不仅是一种商业模式，也是一种产品。我们知道数据中心正在发生一些变化，台积电在处理方面做得非常好，我们在软件工作负载方面也取得了良好的进展。我们认为，如果我们将投资推进到一些特定的指令上，例如SME和SVE，这些是超大规模计算机上特定工作负载的矢量扩展，我们可以在超大规模计算机市场方面有所收获。Nilay：让每个人都清楚，这就是云计算市场，那是你的谷歌云，AWS的东西。Rene Haas：那是你的云。AWS是我们的重要合作伙伴。他们宣布了Graviton2以及一些相当令人瞠目结舌的数字，相对于其他架构的价格性能提高了40%。因此，我们不仅通过开发不同的产品，而且通过商业模式战略的不同部分来解决这个问题，从而使我们的业务多样化。我们知道我们的生意会好起来的。你现在看到的所有财务结果都非常棒，团队在这方面做得非常出色，这些真的都是来自几年前的工作，你不会在一夜之间看到每单位的版税成果。我们开发IP，然后IP必须交给客户，他们必须制造出一个芯片，该芯片必须进入一个产品，产品必须是合格的。所有这些可能需要3到4年的时间，我们对我们要到达的地方感觉很不错，在我们一直投资的领域，例如云、汽车和物联网，我们也觉得不错。这些都是我认为我们非常适合的大型长期增长领域。Nilay：两年前你做了一些赌注，现在得到了丰厚的回报，你认为季度间的投资者压力会改变你运营公司的方式吗？Rene Haas：我认为任何时候你都是一家上市公司，这只是世界运作方式的一部分。不过，我不能过多谈论作为上市公司的生活会是什么样子，我受到非常严格的命令限制，要留在我的区域内，不能谈论太多。Nilay：公司里为数不多的一位律师正要跑进房间。Rene Haas：哈哈，所以我真的不能说太多。但我可以说，我们对所涉市场的长期增长非常有信心。04.对Arm来说，汽车将会是一个大市场Nilay：你刚刚表达了对汽车、物联网和云的信心。云市场存在且还在增长中，Arm已经对此采取了措施。我与很多汽车行业的CEO交谈过，我们在The Verge cast上花了很多时间谈论智能家居和物联网。但那些市场还没有真正的转弯，作为Arm CEO，你可以推动这一点吗？还是更像是“我们只要为汽车真正的成为车轮上的网络计算机，而准备好设计和产品”？Rene Haas：当人们想到汽车中的电子设备时，他们会自动转向自动驾驶等。想想汽车内部有什么，以及汽车中的流程数量。仪表板全是数字化的、电脑化的，动力传动系统，以及与后视镜和刹车有关的任何东西，所有这些都在迅速转移到Arm上，在Arm上运作。智能汽车中发生的许多事情正在向Arm移动。在动力传动系中，你有许多旧的独立的电子控制单元（ECU），他们可能有一个旧的专有微控制器，并且不与汽车的其他部分相同。所有这些ECU都在重新设计，每辆汽车内部，可能有 50-70个ECU，而且每一个都可能有一个旧的专有微控制器，它们没有连接，没有内存管理单元。因此，添加自动和高级驾驶辅助系统（ADAS）后，汽车可以成为高度联网的设备，这是Arm要发展的一个领域。对我们来说，汽车有点像多种技术的沙盒：仪表板、动力传动系统、动力传动系统/ECU。顺便说一句，自治对我们来说是一个巨大的机会。回到数据中心领域，就计算而言，汽车中真正重要的是性能和效率，你不能在你的后备箱里有一台服务器运行电动汽车，今天的一些汽车就是这样的。随着时间的推移，这种情况会得到改善，我们对汽车市场非常乐观，在那里我们也会发展得非常快。Nilay：那么，你是否要请你的一些工程师说，去找可以跨汽车工作的ECU、发动机控制器或车身控制模块，以便英伟达的人可以来获得许可并将其出售给福特？Rene Haas：这其实已经在发生了。这些用于汽车的CPU效率、功率和功能安全都很重要。你必须拥有所有保障措施以确保它可以安全运行。有些人通过计算库在软件中执行此操作，但大多数人更愿意在硬件中执行此操作，因为硬件中执行更安全有效。我们开发了嵌入功能安全的汽车处理器和图形处理器。之前我们没有这样做，之前我们基本上只会推出一个通用的东西，以便在你想要的任何地方使用。这是我们在过去几年中做出重大改变的事情之一。Nilay：我们现在在谈论未来了，让我们把话题拉回到当下。我们长期以来一直处于芯片短缺状态，这次的“缺芯”也可能不会结束。英特尔和英伟达的季度业绩都不太理想，英特尔说他们实际上会提高价格。在芯片短缺的情况下，你会在哪里？那是现在影响你的事情吗？那是你看到来来去去的东西吗？你有点脱离了这个实际的部分。Rene Haas：我们脱离了不制造任何东西的观点，但我们确实又和芯片有关，我们的版税模型与人们订购的组件有关。回到前面的讨论，我们在终端市场方面非常多样化。正在发生的另一件事是这些SoC中使用了越来越多的CPU。移动手机的应用处理器可能使用一个CPU，而用于计算的集群现在是9个或10个不同的CPU。你有10个CPU，这只是应用处理器（AP），然后考虑触摸传感器、显示器还有摄像头这些东西。我们看到，尽管智能手机等某些市场的销量一直在走向疲软，但从产品走向的角度来看，我们一直受到它的保护。Nilay：你听过我们与Willy Shih的那一集吗？他就在这里，告诉我们卫生纸的事情，然后谈到了芯片和液晶显示器的制造。由于他们有太多的SKU，卖的纸种类太多，所以决定减少卫生纸的种类，最后这一决策解决了很大一部分问题。Rene Haas：没错。所以现在想想一辆需要各种二极管、电容器、电阻器和热传感器的汽车，不仅仅是因为很难获得3纳米，而且很难建造晶圆厂。你可以从我的头发颜色看出我在这个行业已经很长时间了，我一直处于商业周期中，人们开始停止研发并放慢项目速度，他们渐渐不尝试新事物，停止了创新。我认为这是因为一切都数字化了，对电子产品的超高需求以及它将如何改变我们的生活。我们的指标是什么？许可和新设计开始对我们来说从未如此美好，因为它遍及所有的市场。05.“50年后，每个大陆都应该有世界级的晶圆厂”Nilay：你所说的是研发正在加快步伐的原因之一。全球范围内都开始重新认识全球化的前景，世界不再那么平静。美国刚刚通过了芯片法案，以真正激励芯片制造和各种设计投资。台积电正在美国建设，英特尔刚刚在俄亥俄州的新工厂破土动工。你是否看到考虑到，大家都知道我们严重依赖中国台湾的少数晶圆厂，而中国台湾是一个地缘政治热点地区。我们需要将这种关键的技术依赖转移到自己的国家。这是你会参与的事情吗，还是你只是在旁观？Rene Haas：我们肯定会参与这件事。只要我们可以通过与任何国家的政治官员交谈来扩大对此的需求，我们就会提供帮助。这不仅仅是Arm问题，而是一个行业问题。你正在做的任何事情的单点故障都不是一件好事，疫情暴露了很多东西，人们开始睁大双眼，看到哪些事情才是真正的问题。我非常感谢推动芯片法案的人们，这一点真的非常重要。这不仅对美国很重要，从现在起往后50年，每个大陆都应该有自己的世界级晶圆厂。我们不必担心地缘政治问题，晶圆厂之后会像世界运转的氧气一样。Nilay：现在前沿工艺节点主要由台积电控制，用5nm、3nm的技术遥遥领先，很少有人能在这个水平上竞争。你的智能手机用的都是最前沿的技术，而用于汽车上的基本都是较成熟的工艺节点（40nm、14nm），工艺受到严重限制，不再有人投资建造这些晶圆厂。你怎么看待这种结果？你对处于拥有前沿技术的台积电存在这种严格限制怎么看，每个人都想在这些东西上提高建设能力，但没有人想为旧东西提高建设能力。Rene Haas：我不是制造专家，但我可以告诉你的是，我们看到很多关于如何将某些晶圆厂转换为新工作的事正在完成。就像你说的那样。人们通常会有点不愿意将大量资金投入到这里面，你或许会想可以将我们正在建造的晶圆厂转换为某种工艺技术，并将其转变为逻辑晶圆厂？有存储晶圆厂可以转换成逻辑晶圆厂吗？但这是一个非常复杂的问题，因为世界上只有这么多工厂，知道如何建造这些东西的人只有这么多，他们都是上市公司，必须去赚钱，总之这是一个非常复杂的矩阵。30年前，日本的逻辑晶圆厂是世界级的，遍布全国。现在这个数字已经基本下降到为零。日本正在寻找方法改变这种局面，以使更多的晶圆厂重新上线。我想你会看到很多在美国在其他国家有完成芯片法案之类的事情。我认为韩国的晶圆厂有巨大的能力，不过，它也是一个复杂而困难的问题。06.“英特尔CEO做了很多正确的事”Nilay：Arm对台积电的依赖程度如何？感觉就像很多公司都意识到他们真的依赖于一家公司。它是行业领导者是有原因的，但那里有很多依赖。在设计新的处理器类型或架构时，你是否考虑过这种依赖性？Rene Haas：我们与台积电密切合作。所有晶圆厂对我们都很重要，Arm会保持中立态度。说真的，它们都很重要。在一个理想的世界里，我们有很多人可以构建前沿技术。一般来说，在智能手机里，数据中心里，通常是最前沿的工艺，因为大家真的在努力尽可能地发挥出最大的性能，在汽车和工业领域则不然。所以，任何采用前沿工艺的晶圆厂对我们来说都非常重要。Nilay：众所周知，英特尔长期以来一直是一家集成设计和晶圆厂企业。他们基本上被台积电所震撼，现在，他们又有了一位新的CEO，他正在打破这种局面，计划向其他人开放他们的工厂。你刚才说英特尔是客户，你正在和他们合作吗？Rene Haas：我们希望台积电能够制造大量Arm产品，他们确实这样做了。我们希望英特尔也这样做。Nilay：你对英特尔能够做到这一点持乐观态度吗？Rene Haas：我认为（英特尔CEO）帕特做了很多正确的事情。他的工作很辛苦，完成得也非常好，我们非常愿意和他一起做更多的事情。Nilay：又是一个偏政治的答案，但我必须问。在芯片法案方面，人们对法案的通过、签署都很兴奋。英特尔受到了很多批评，因为它宣布削减资本支出并增加股息，而不是将其投入晶圆厂。从广义上讲，你认为这是正确的举措吗？我们应该为美国的晶圆厂寻找什么样的时机？Rene Haas：我不会怀疑帕特关于他如何花钱的决定。回到你说的，我们谈论的是单点故障。我觉得我们需要快速行动，尽快启动这些设施，让它们上线，构建更多冗余，减少单点故障的风险。所以我们需要更多的晶圆厂。Nilay：你根据什么样的时机做出决定？如果今天通过一项法案，或者今天有人宣布了一个新的晶圆厂，我们五年内都看不到它，那你如何看待你的决策时机？Rene Haas：在担任CEO六个月后，我仍在学习，身上有很多责任，最大的责任之一就是要思考五年后的问题。因为我们的商业运作方式，从设计的产品到能看到收入的过程是相当长的。我们正在考虑机会在哪里，需要在哪里进行投资，威胁又在哪里，以及系统和软件设计的方向。我的大部分精力都花在思考2025年和2026年的世界会是什么样子上，而不是下个季度。07.请继续关注PC，Arm正取得很大进展Nilay：有一些长期押注更关注消费者，而不是更换汽车后备箱中的服务器。目前与Arm有关的最热门趋势是，苹果公司从英特尔x86处理器转向基于Arm指令集架构授权的自研M系列处理器，来支持它们的Mac，提升了电池寿命和性能的同时，也帮助苹果降低了采购成本。现在，由于这些芯片，Mac也基本成了你能买到的最好的笔记本电脑了。这反映了Arm架构处理器在PC市场也能够获得巨大成功，Arm可以帮助其他行业做这些事情吗？或者是仅设计，并希望高通能够做出让微软和戴尔也能做到这一点的芯片？从你的角度来看，你如何看待与行业的关系？Rene Haas：我认为我们可以做更多的事情，而且可能需要做更多的事情。这不是因为我们需要帮助这个行业，而是因为这些产品的构建真的很复杂。让我们先谈谈架构许可。之前，很多厂商认为你需要获得架构许可才能构建更好的CPU来与Arm竞争，但是，微处理器每个时钟的IPC指令只是真正可以改变设计的一方面，还需要考虑内存子系统、互连、高速缓存的大小、与SoC其他部分的接口方式，并确保SoC位于具有芯片和芯片互连的多芯片封装中。有些客户非常擅长这些东西，并且可以弄清楚，所以他们不需要我们的过多帮助。但随着时间的推移，越来越多的企业将需要Arm做更多，这是我们非常密切关注的一个趋势。Nilay：从你的角度来看，只要都是Arm筹码，谁赢并不重要是吗？如果苹果公司占据笔记本电脑市场100%的份额，那对你来说非常好。如果微软、惠普和高通能够在Arm笔记本电脑上搭配具有竞争力的Windows，并占据50%的份额，你仍然可以获得报酬。是不是感觉无论谁赢，你都会赢？Rene Haas：如果产品与Arm指令集架构一起发货，那对我们来说是一件好事，如果使用了替代设备，则意味着它没有使用Arm指令集架构，对我们来说就不太好。我刚上任时，在网站上用自己的名字取了一个小绰号，并与公关团队合作，用了一句slogan“无论在哪里发生计算，Arm都会出现”。不管恒温器或微波炉、Polycom，还是智能电视、笔记本电脑等等，这些都是基于Arm的。Nilay：你刚才说计算发生在哪里，对于大多数人来说，计算发生在他们的笔记本电脑和台式机上。我听说Windows on Arm（WoA）已有13年了，虽然没有发生，但你只满足于让苹果吃掉这个行业吗？因为在这个极其庞大的行业中仍有其他人的指令集，比如英特尔的指令集。Rene Haas：我曾在一家开发Windows RT的公司工作，担任那个产品线的总经理。在加入Arm之前，我在英伟达工作多年（在英伟达担任副总裁兼计算产品业务部门总经理长达7年），我们在这方面取得了巨大进展，因为我们觉得真正的引爆点就在那里。转折点确实存在，我在Windows RT笔记本电脑上进行的第一次新闻采访时，我记得与一群记者会面，他们问我的第一个问题是：“它运行iTunes吗？” 我们就像：“啊，该死。不。” 它不能运行，因为我们没有端口，苹果公司也没有帮助我们。快进到10年后，流媒体音频已经出现，没有人真正关心这些应用程序。如果你考虑在PC或手机上运行的所有应用程序，就很难说“好吧，哪些原生应用程序不是真正在Arm上运行的？” 他们几乎都在那里。请继续关注PC的事情。我们正在取得很大进展。你可以通过其他生态系统的笔记本电脑看到功能是什么。我认为就这些功能的潜力而言，这对行业敲响了警钟，我们也会坚持下去。Nilay：那个警钟是由于一家非常富有的公司在你的指令集自定义上花费了大量资金，对吗？那是他们的筹码。你是说我们作为Arm可以开发出每瓦性能与M系列芯片一样高效的产品，然后将这些设计卖给高通吗？还是归结为高通——我相信它也拥有架构许可——自己做？Rene Haas：我对此有100%的信心。你不需要架构许可证即可执行此操作。08.如何在GPU中获胜？Nilay：另一方面是笔记本电脑、台式机，甚至汽车制造商。我去坐在一辆（美国纯电动汽车）Rivian上，我被告知GPU和虚幻引擎驱动汽车。图形性能已成为该行业各种产品的差异化的点，Arm有一个名字很好的新GPU，Immortalis。苹果公司没有使用你的GPU。如果你考虑大型GPU供应商，他们并没有真正考虑每瓦性能，是吗？使用高端的英伟达卡，你只需要在地下室有一个核反应堆来运行那个东西，这很棒。看起来不错。你将如何在GPU中获胜？Rene Haas：当你按单位计算时，我们实际上是地球上GPU的第一大供应商。我记得，英伟达收购事件期间，其CEO黄仁勋提出了一个关键点：我们将忠实于我们的审查，每瓦特的性能很重要。我们不会冒险去做百瓦TDP GPU并尝试在那个领域发挥作用。我们将在1瓦范围内尝试，在该范围内进行优化。然后在某些领域，你可以开始在多个GPU方面做更多的事情。我们开始看到人们正在考虑做机器学习扩展，并可能在GPU内做这些事情。这很有趣，因为GPU可以从某种程度的AI和机器学习中受益，从而以更有效的方式进行着色器绘制。同时，你可以开始工作或将ML工作负载转移到GPU上。有很多有趣的创新将能够在我们的GPU上进行，我们正在该领域进行大量投资。需要明确的是，我们将留在一个性能和效率很重要的领域。Nilay：是的，你交付了很多GPU。它是许多客户的SoC包的一部分。拥有自己的GPU或自己的GPU扩展的客户的每瓦性能领先。是否同样的交易在一天结束时并不重要，因为他们正在运送Arm指令集架构并且你仍然可以获得报酬？或者是“我们必须在这里保持竞争力，否则他们将完全离开”？Rene Haas：GPU与CPU略有不同，因为API是抽取式的。每瓦性能确实很重要。我们为公平竞争做了很多工作，而且有了Immortalis，在许多领域都处于领先地位。对这些GPU来说非常关键的另一件事是CPU和GPU之间的接口效率，这也是我们大力投资的领域，但我们必须在GPU市场上保持警惕，正如你所说，这是非常有竞争力的。你让人们自己做，你让其他第三方做产品。同时，这是我们非常关注的一个领域，所以我们会投资。我认为未来与GPU一起使用的机器学习AI向量对我们来说是一个巨大的机会。Nilay：GPU是一项巨大的投资。你必须花很多钱来竞争并赢得设计。你进行这种投资是因为随着时间的推移，你可以从其他定制GPU中赢回这些产品并获得更多收益吗？还是仅仅为了具有竞争力，你需要有竞争力的GPU？Rene Haas：我回到机器学习和人工智能。如果你有一个异构计算系统，你有一个CPU、GPU和NPU，我认为在某个时间点编译器会变得足够聪明，它们可能会指向可以运行得更好的部分代码在GPU与CPU上。如果你将整个集群视为一个完整的子系统，我认为这会带来长期利益。对我们来说，尤其是在设计片上系统时，我们正在尝试进行各种重大权衡。有时我不希望该工作负载在CPU上运行，因为它会消耗不必要的功率，而且我可能在GPU中有晶体管，如果我不画画的话，我可能可以使用它们。 我们认为GPU是一个非常关键的战略组件。09.只有Arm和RISC-V两种选择Nilay：GPU竞争对手，在某一方面是显而易见的。CPU的竞争对手似乎更难识别，你的竞争对手是谁？Rene Haas：在CPU方面？我想大概只有两个选择，这是有偏见的，但我甚至认为没有真正的选择。从指令集架构的角度来看，如果你想基于x86构建SoC，世界上只有两家公司会为你做这件事：AMD或英特尔。然后是RISC-V，它是一个完全不同的部分，因为它是开源的并且存在许多不同的版本。RISC-V是一个可扩展的处理器，这意味着它的优势就是它的劣势。在我看来，可扩展性会导致碎片化。我认为这在获得任何类型的软件生态系统方面伤害了他们。环顾四周真的很难说，“什么是在RISC-V处理器上始终如一地运行的主要软件生态系统？”没有。那么，我们今天在片上系统中的什么地方看到了RISC-V？它位于芯片的深层嵌入部分，外部程序员不知道它的存在。这是我可以给出的一个类比。如果你在微波炉里放一些东西，然后在30秒计时器上按下启动键，那显示器可能是Arm，因为上面可能运行了一小段开源应用程序代码。实际打开烤箱并在30秒后关闭的计时器可能是RISC-V。这些确实是仅有的两个选择。我的意思是，所有这些都是小公司，但这些公司在市场份额上确实没有太大的吸引力。Nilay：你是否看到Arm和RISC-V会淘汰过时的x86世界？Rene Haas：x86已经存在很长时间，并且拥有非常强大的安装基础，我当然不想做任何事情来贬低他们正在做的事情。我认为x86的挑战在于它仅来自两家公司，就其可以走多远而言，这本身就是一个限制因素。Nilay：这两家公司，英特尔和AMD都有自己的晶圆厂，台积电也有。还有另一个制造难题，随着时间的推移，这些制造商似乎会说，“看，我们真的很擅长Arm。我们将擅长RISC-V，我们不想再擅长x86了。”Rene Haas：我甚至会怀疑他们是否真的已经非常擅长Arm了。毋庸置疑，这并不容易。Nilay：有没有像RISC-V这样的其他竞争对手？我的意思是，RISC-V是另一个类似Windows on Arm的东西。我听说它已经有十年了，它似乎出现在你所说的一些应用程序中。Rene Haas：这都是关于软件的。归根结底，它是关于拥有一个能够利用编写软件的丰富的开发者生态系统。对我们来说，我们认为有1500万到2500万开发人员在Arm上编程。有些人知道他们在Arm上编程，因为他们利用了指令集，但也有一些人不知道，因为它被抽象掉了。编译器和开源库都在那里，这使得它很容易运行。举个例子：智能电视。如果你尝试为智能电视编写新菜单并尝试链接到本质上是底层内核的 Android版本，那就是Arm。这一切都针对Arm进行了优化。就自我报告而言，这是一个很大的优势。这些库都存在，并且已经完成了优化。假设你在RISC-V上尝试过。如果A公司添加17条新指令以使他们的 RISC-V看起来有点不同，那么开发人员不会知道这一点。开发人员将如何利用这一点？RISC-V可能最终被简化为最低公分母。Nilay：几个月前，高通CEO克里斯蒂亚诺·安蒙（Cristiano Amon）参加过这个节目。我问了他同样的Windows on Arm问题，他有点把责任归咎于软件开发者，说：“看，微软、Adobe和其他大型独立软件供应商必须加入，他们必须快速制作这些东西。” 你刚才说这都是关于软件的，你是否花时间与那些公司说：“看，你必须将注意力转移到未来，这就是Arm？”Rene Haas：你说的这些公司是指微软还是Adobe？Nilay：两个都是。Rene Haas：是的。我们花了很多时间在两者上，这就是最终要赢得战斗的地方。你和我一样已经看了10年、12年了，它比以往任何时候都更接近，因为不仅在原有应用程序上要做更多的工作，而且已经为Arm编写了更多这些本地应用程序。看看世界上两种不同的操作系统。其他操作系统在代码中使用他们的名字。查看仅在其系统上运行的所有微软应用程序。它们都以这种方式移植，因此，所有这些微软应用程序都可以在你的手机上运行。我们也差不多，我认为当市场上有很多相当不错的CPU产品可以与其他人竞争时，转折点就会出现。就你的观点而言，该产品证明了你不必在外形尺寸上牺牲性能和改变游戏规则的电池寿命。10.结语：Arm的下一步是什么？Nilay：我总是问人们他们公司的下一步是什么，但我会问你一个更具体的问题。你宣布Arm将于2023年3月上市，随着时间的临近，能否兑现这个目标呢？Rene Haas：不幸的是，我们现在正处于我不能透露太多的阶段。Nilay：好吧，Arm的下一步是什么？Rene Haas：我们将继续在我提到的领域进行投资。我们认为刚刚谈到的一些主题确实有强劲的增长：那些复杂的封装系统和复杂的设计。我们正在努力寻找为行业提供更多服务的能力，因为我认为那里有巨大的机会。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":952,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}