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2021-08-02

Nice

Airline shares, Carnival stocks were mostly higher

2021-07-22

Informative

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2021-07-21

Woah

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2021-07-23

Is this overvaluation?

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2021-07-27

please like ?

How the 10-year Treasury rate and S&P 500 performed when the Fed tapered in 2013

2021-07-16

Nice

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2021-07-16

Nice

'Boring '20s'? - a decade of zero real rates :Mike Dolan

2021-07-16

Nice

'Boring '20s'? - a decade of zero real rates :Mike Dolan

2021-07-18

Woww

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2023-02-02

$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$

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stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627911880,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169778745?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-02 21:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Airline shares, Carnival stocks were mostly higher","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169778745","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(August 2) Shares of Carnival Corp. were up 2.52% in early trading. Major banks including Morgan Sta","content":"<p>(August 2)&nbsp;Shares of Carnival Corp. were up 2.52% in early trading. Major banks including Morgan Stanley and Bank of America were higher. Airline shares were mostly higher.</p>\n<p>“We believe the reopening and recovery trend is on track and continue to see upside for equities,” wrote Mark Haefele, chief investment officer of global wealth management at UBS. “We expect the S&amp;P 500 to climb to around 4,650 by June next year, versus 4,395 at present. But we see the greatest upside for cyclical parts of the market, including energy, financials, and Japanese stocks.”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d1f8013a64fda7879ad10c4e7559aec\" tg-width=\"313\" tg-height=\"363\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Airline shares, Carnival stocks were mostly higher</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAirline shares, Carnival stocks were mostly higher\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-02 21:44</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(August 2)&nbsp;Shares of Carnival Corp. were up 2.52% in early trading. Major banks including Morgan Stanley and Bank of America were higher. Airline shares were mostly higher.</p>\n<p>“We believe the reopening and recovery trend is on track and continue to see upside for equities,” wrote Mark Haefele, chief investment officer of global wealth management at UBS. “We expect the S&amp;P 500 to climb to around 4,650 by June next year, versus 4,395 at present. But we see the greatest upside for cyclical parts of the market, including energy, financials, and Japanese stocks.”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d1f8013a64fda7879ad10c4e7559aec\" tg-width=\"313\" tg-height=\"363\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169778745","content_text":"(August 2) Shares of Carnival Corp. were up 2.52% in early trading. Major banks including Morgan Stanley and Bank of America were higher. Airline shares were mostly higher.\n“We believe the reopening and recovery trend is on track and continue to see upside for equities,” wrote Mark Haefele, chief investment officer of global wealth management at UBS. “We expect the S&P 500 to climb to around 4,650 by June next year, versus 4,395 at present. But we see the greatest upside for cyclical parts of the market, including energy, financials, and Japanese stocks.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801436491,"gmtCreate":1627527025513,"gmtModify":1703491715900,"author":{"id":"4089440680592730","authorId":"4089440680592730","name":"Bluefaerie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a14cce34aa8b490facc68d4c62d3704","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089440680592730","idStr":"4089440680592730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801436491","repostId":"801495474","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":801495474,"gmtCreate":1627526557198,"gmtModify":1703491704815,"author":{"id":"3521339628608760","authorId":"3521339628608760","name":"美股队长8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a126f572eafb02336cabf7f7a75e6712","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3521339628608760","idStr":"3521339628608760"},"themes":[],"title":"週三Moc大資金賣出排行榜，beke,vips,tal,nok,luv上榜","htmlText":"美股的很多基金（包括共同基金、對衝基金、養老金等）只能在尾盤以收盤價進行交易，英文叫Market-On-Close Stock Order Imbalances，簡稱moc，這些交易基本都是在尾盤15分鐘內進行交易。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">$貝殼(BEKE)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">$唯品會(VIPS)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">$好未來(TAL)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">$諾基亞(NOK)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">$西南航空(LUV)$</a>&nbsp;每日股票機會更新、實時買賣通知和實倉分享，請訂閱<a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/m/space?userId=3521339628608760\" target=\"_blank\">我的空間站</a>","listText":"美股的很多基金（包括共同基金、對衝基金、養老金等）只能在尾盤以收盤價進行交易，英文叫Market-On-Close Stock Order Imbalances，簡稱moc，這些交易基本都是在尾盤15分鐘內進行交易。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">$貝殼(BEKE)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">$唯品會(VIPS)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">$好未來(TAL)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">$諾基亞(NOK)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">$西南航空(LUV)$</a>&nbsp;每日股票機會更新、實時買賣通知和實倉分享，請訂閱<a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/m/space?userId=3521339628608760\" target=\"_blank\">我的空間站</a>","text":"美股的很多基金（包括共同基金、對衝基金、養老金等）只能在尾盤以收盤價進行交易，英文叫Market-On-Close Stock Order Imbalances，簡稱moc，這些交易基本都是在尾盤15分鐘內進行交易。$貝殼(BEKE)$ $唯品會(VIPS)$ $好未來(TAL)$ $諾基亞(NOK)$ $西南航空(LUV)$ 每日股票機會更新、實時買賣通知和實倉分享，請訂閱我的空間站","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29f3e19f2c9c51ae1fd6ffee92f834a4","width":"688","height":"273"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801495474","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2026,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801436361,"gmtCreate":1627527014053,"gmtModify":1703491715086,"author":{"id":"4089440680592730","authorId":"4089440680592730","name":"Bluefaerie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a14cce34aa8b490facc68d4c62d3704","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089440680592730","idStr":"4089440680592730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801436361","repostId":"801494120","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":801494120,"gmtCreate":1627526591556,"gmtModify":1703491706121,"author":{"id":"3527667586584720","authorId":"3527667586584720","name":"小虎综合资讯","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667586584720","idStr":"3527667586584720"},"themes":[],"title":"【異動】港股科技股短線拉昇，京東、網易漲超11%","htmlText":"7月29日，港股科技股短線拉昇，京東、網易漲超11%，騰訊控股漲超7%，阿里巴巴漲超5%。","listText":"7月29日，港股科技股短線拉昇，京東、網易漲超11%，騰訊控股漲超7%，阿里巴巴漲超5%。","text":"7月29日，港股科技股短線拉昇，京東、網易漲超11%，騰訊控股漲超7%，阿里巴巴漲超5%。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/117faf34f66b8007ef46d320d8928345","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801494120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2572,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801438598,"gmtCreate":1627526992014,"gmtModify":1703491714270,"author":{"id":"4089440680592730","authorId":"4089440680592730","name":"Bluefaerie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a14cce34aa8b490facc68d4c62d3704","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089440680592730","idStr":"4089440680592730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;Nice","listText":"&nbsp;Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801438598","repostId":"801494120","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":801494120,"gmtCreate":1627526591556,"gmtModify":1703491706121,"author":{"id":"3527667586584720","authorId":"3527667586584720","name":"小虎综合资讯","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667586584720","idStr":"3527667586584720"},"themes":[],"title":"【異動】港股科技股短線拉昇，京東、網易漲超11%","htmlText":"7月29日，港股科技股短線拉昇，京東、網易漲超11%，騰訊控股漲超7%，阿里巴巴漲超5%。","listText":"7月29日，港股科技股短線拉昇，京東、網易漲超11%，騰訊控股漲超7%，阿里巴巴漲超5%。","text":"7月29日，港股科技股短線拉昇，京東、網易漲超11%，騰訊控股漲超7%，阿里巴巴漲超5%。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/117faf34f66b8007ef46d320d8928345","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801494120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2093,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809280026,"gmtCreate":1627372814965,"gmtModify":1703488599037,"author":{"id":"4089440680592730","authorId":"4089440680592730","name":"Bluefaerie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a14cce34aa8b490facc68d4c62d3704","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089440680592730","idStr":"4089440680592730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"please like ?","listText":"please like ?","text":"please like ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809280026","repostId":"2154875967","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2154875967","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1627372266,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2154875967?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-27 15:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How the 10-year Treasury rate and S&P 500 performed when the Fed tapered in 2013","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2154875967","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"In the wake of the Great Recession, it took about five years for the U.S. central bank to start slow","content":"<p>In the wake of the Great Recession, it took about five years for the U.S. central bank to start slowing down its controversial large-scale bond-buying program, ultimately making 2013 the year of the \"taper tantrum .\"</p>\n<p>Federal Reserve officials have said they'd rather avoid a repeat of that episode, when it comes to eventually scaling back its $120 billion-a-month, pandemic-era asset-purchase program.</p>\n<p>And while it felt like the U.S. stock and bond markets both freaked out in 2013, a review of the S&amp;P 500's performance in that tumultuous year shows it turned out pretty well for equity investors who stayed the course.</p>\n<p>Following a roughly 6% pullback post-Fed taper announcement, the S&amp;P 500 finished the year higher by about 30%, according to the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5888ee701d08887e5b8d11bca7d6e30\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>S&amp;P 500 rose 30% in 2013. WELLS FARGO INVESTMENT INSTITUTE</span></p>\n<p>At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield nearly doubled in six months from a low of almost 1.5% to roughly 3.1% by that December, leading to higher borrowing costs that rippled through the U.S. economy, from commercial real-estate owners to U.S. corporations <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LQD\">$(LQD)$</a>.</p>\n<p>\"Higher inflation, rising long-term interest rates, and a less dovish Fed could potentially cause the market to pause,\" Chris Haverland, Wells Fargo Institute's global equity strategist wrote, in a Monday note.</p>\n<p>\"However, equities have historically performed well through these events, even if there was some initial selling pressure.\"</p>\n<p>Haverland thinks the Fed may announce plans to reduce its asset purchases later this year, which could lift longer-duration Treasury rates, including the 10-year, from its current 1.3% range. He also prefers to stick to his wheelhouse in equities over bonds.</p>\n<p>\"If the market corrects, we would view it as an opportunity to fill our equity positions that may be below strategic or tactical targets,\" he said.</p>\n<p>During the pandemic, the Fed has been buying about $80 billion of Treasurys each month and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), while increasing its balance sheet to about $8.2 trillion .</p>\n<p>Some Fed officials have been debating buying, as a first step to withdrawing some support, particularly since the U.S. housing market has been red-hot during the COVID crisis, albeit with recent signs of cooling.</p>\n<p>The Federal Reserve kicks off a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, with a statement due Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern, followed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference.</p>\n<p>U.S. stocks drifted higher into record territory on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average , S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index claiming new closing highs.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How the 10-year Treasury rate and S&P 500 performed when the Fed tapered in 2013</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow the 10-year Treasury rate and S&P 500 performed when the Fed tapered in 2013\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-27 15:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-the-10-year-treasury-rate-and-s-p-500-performed-when-the-fed-tapered-in-2013-11627344095?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In the wake of the Great Recession, it took about five years for the U.S. central bank to start slowing down its controversial large-scale bond-buying program, ultimately making 2013 the year of the \"...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-the-10-year-treasury-rate-and-s-p-500-performed-when-the-fed-tapered-in-2013-11627344095?mod=home-page\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时",".DJI":"道琼斯","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","LQD":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx投资级公司债",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","MBB":"美国按揭抵押债券ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-the-10-year-treasury-rate-and-s-p-500-performed-when-the-fed-tapered-in-2013-11627344095?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2154875967","content_text":"In the wake of the Great Recession, it took about five years for the U.S. central bank to start slowing down its controversial large-scale bond-buying program, ultimately making 2013 the year of the \"taper tantrum .\"\nFederal Reserve officials have said they'd rather avoid a repeat of that episode, when it comes to eventually scaling back its $120 billion-a-month, pandemic-era asset-purchase program.\nAnd while it felt like the U.S. stock and bond markets both freaked out in 2013, a review of the S&P 500's performance in that tumultuous year shows it turned out pretty well for equity investors who stayed the course.\nFollowing a roughly 6% pullback post-Fed taper announcement, the S&P 500 finished the year higher by about 30%, according to the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.\nS&P 500 rose 30% in 2013. WELLS FARGO INVESTMENT INSTITUTE\nAt the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield nearly doubled in six months from a low of almost 1.5% to roughly 3.1% by that December, leading to higher borrowing costs that rippled through the U.S. economy, from commercial real-estate owners to U.S. corporations $(LQD)$.\n\"Higher inflation, rising long-term interest rates, and a less dovish Fed could potentially cause the market to pause,\" Chris Haverland, Wells Fargo Institute's global equity strategist wrote, in a Monday note.\n\"However, equities have historically performed well through these events, even if there was some initial selling pressure.\"\nHaverland thinks the Fed may announce plans to reduce its asset purchases later this year, which could lift longer-duration Treasury rates, including the 10-year, from its current 1.3% range. He also prefers to stick to his wheelhouse in equities over bonds.\n\"If the market corrects, we would view it as an opportunity to fill our equity positions that may be below strategic or tactical targets,\" he said.\nDuring the pandemic, the Fed has been buying about $80 billion of Treasurys each month and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), while increasing its balance sheet to about $8.2 trillion .\nSome Fed officials have been debating buying, as a first step to withdrawing some support, particularly since the U.S. housing market has been red-hot during the COVID crisis, albeit with recent signs of cooling.\nThe Federal Reserve kicks off a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, with a statement due Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern, followed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference.\nU.S. stocks drifted higher into record territory on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average , S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index claiming new closing highs.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"MBB":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SH":0.9,"LQD":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPXU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2071,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175203397,"gmtCreate":1627031584319,"gmtModify":1703482835856,"author":{"id":"4089440680592730","authorId":"4089440680592730","name":"Bluefaerie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a14cce34aa8b490facc68d4c62d3704","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089440680592730","idStr":"4089440680592730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is this overvaluation?","listText":"Is this overvaluation?","text":"Is this overvaluation?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/175203397","repostId":"1164478982","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172355742,"gmtCreate":1626939810486,"gmtModify":1703480948061,"author":{"id":"4089440680592730","authorId":"4089440680592730","name":"Bluefaerie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a14cce34aa8b490facc68d4c62d3704","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089440680592730","idStr":"4089440680592730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Informative","listText":"Informative","text":"Informative","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/172355742","repostId":"1199772945","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2888,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178721111,"gmtCreate":1626839165933,"gmtModify":1703766191218,"author":{"id":"4089440680592730","authorId":"4089440680592730","name":"Bluefaerie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a14cce34aa8b490facc68d4c62d3704","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089440680592730","idStr":"4089440680592730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woah","listText":"Woah","text":"Woah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178721111","repostId":"1196827638","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3524,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179442466,"gmtCreate":1626573901755,"gmtModify":1703761864627,"author":{"id":"4089440680592730","authorId":"4089440680592730","name":"Bluefaerie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a14cce34aa8b490facc68d4c62d3704","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089440680592730","idStr":"4089440680592730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woww","listText":"Woww","text":"Woww","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/179442466","repostId":"1123523681","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":801,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179197522,"gmtCreate":1626491429566,"gmtModify":1703761072489,"author":{"id":"4089440680592730","authorId":"4089440680592730","name":"Bluefaerie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a14cce34aa8b490facc68d4c62d3704","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089440680592730","idStr":"4089440680592730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up up up","listText":"Up up up","text":"Up up up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/179197522","repostId":"2152168594","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":799,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170140289,"gmtCreate":1626415184641,"gmtModify":1703759724502,"author":{"id":"4089440680592730","authorId":"4089440680592730","name":"Bluefaerie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a14cce34aa8b490facc68d4c62d3704","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089440680592730","idStr":"4089440680592730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Keep everyone well informed","listText":"Keep everyone well informed","text":"Keep everyone well informed","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170140289","repostId":"2151573133","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":816,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170140914,"gmtCreate":1626415145838,"gmtModify":1703759723682,"author":{"id":"4089440680592730","authorId":"4089440680592730","name":"Bluefaerie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a14cce34aa8b490facc68d4c62d3704","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089440680592730","idStr":"4089440680592730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170140914","repostId":"1129144056","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":928,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170152692,"gmtCreate":1626414870016,"gmtModify":1703759718624,"author":{"id":"4089440680592730","authorId":"4089440680592730","name":"Bluefaerie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a14cce34aa8b490facc68d4c62d3704","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089440680592730","idStr":"4089440680592730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170152692","repostId":"1124361019","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124361019","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1626413039,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124361019?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-16 13:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Boring '20s'? - a decade of zero real rates :Mike Dolan","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124361019","media":"Reuters","summary":"(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)\nLONDON, July 16 (Reu","content":"<p>(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)</p>\n<p>LONDON, July 16 (Reuters) - The U.S. government can once again borrow at a deeply negative ‘real’ rate of minus 1.0% for 10 years - and some economists insist there’s a powerful historical case for expecting that rate to stay near zero or below for the rest of the decade.</p>\n<p>It’s been fashionable in markets of late to think of another “Roaring ‘20s” emerging over the next decade. Pandemic-driven megatrends, fractious politics, gigantic government debt piles and the return of inflation could all conspire to electrify or unnerve markets over the years ahead - or so the story goes.</p>\n<p>But after a restive first quarter of 2021, global bond markets - still under the spell of heavy central bank buying - appear to be pricing in a very different scenario ahead.</p>\n<p>Even after this week’s June readout of the highest annual gain in U.S. core consumer prices in 30 years - an inflation rate of some 4.5% excluding food and energy prices - the yield on the Treasury’s 10-year inflation-protected bond skidded back below -1.0% for the first time in five months.</p>\n<p>Aside from that brief moment in February, these rates have never been lower - at least not in the history of these securities. And all equivalent rates in the G4 major economies are also below zero, with Germany and Britain even lower than those in the United States.</p>\n<p>Investors pore over everything from ‘peak inflation’ to ‘peak growth’ and even ‘peak stimulus’ for clues as to why bond yields continue to defy forecasts and why they have taken the surge in inflation and government debt levels in their stride.</p>\n<p>U.S. government debt will top 125% of gross domestic product this year and next - its highest since World War Two - and up almost 20 percentage points since before the pandemic. Debt/GDP in G4 economies overall has risen by a similar amount to 125%.</p>\n<p>While many put the seeming nonchalance down to persistent central bank intervention or technical quirks, some also point out to the risk of a weakening ‘fiscal impulse’ over the next two years that mathematically drags on growth rates.</p>\n<p>Manulife Investment Management economist Frances Donald thinks this should be seen as a “fiscal cliff” and the drop in U.S. spending - viewed as a share of resulting falling budget deficit - marks the steepest such cliff since the 1940s.</p>\n<p><b>HIGH PRESSURE</b></p>\n<p>However, G7 leaders pledged last month not to make the mistakes of the last crisis by reducing government spending too soon and reverting to fiscal austerity too early.</p>\n<p>The White House and congressional Democrats at least seem intent on keeping that “high pressure economy” until all sections of society take part. Leading Democrats this week agreed to table another $3.5 trillion investment plan on top of the proposed $600 billion of infrastructure spending already in the pipeline.</p>\n<p>And yet the bond market barely flickered at the prospect.</p>\n<p>Is this just the Federal Reserve’s hand? Is Fed buying really so dominant and can it remain so for years?</p>\n<p>Fed chief Jerome Powell was this week pointedly reluctant to give Congress any hard timeline for a reduction in bond buying and continued to characterize inflation spikes as mostly temporary base effects and bottlenecks from pandemic lockdowns.</p>\n<p>But if the Fed is right about inflation over time and the pursuit of a high pressure economy is now G7 consensus due to equality and climate priorities, history shows bond yields could be down here for a long time to come yet.</p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley economists published a study this week looking at 100 years of data on how countries managed debt blowouts - defined as periods when debt/GDP ratios jumped 20 percentage points in five years.</p>\n<p>They concluded that countries which managed to rein in those debt levels over the subsequent decade had kept looser monetary and fiscal policies longer than those who failed to stop their debt rising. Low debt servicing costs - absent an inflation problem - and growth were shown to be the best ways to keep debts sustainable.</p>\n<p>Studying all outcomes, they reckoned the most successful strategy was to keep real interest rates two percentage points below real GDP growth rates for 10 years and ‘grow out’ of the debt rather than slashing spending. Fiscal consolidation, by contrast, had played a lesser role in the reversal of public debt build-ups over the century, it said.</p>\n<p>On that basis the investment bank saw U.S. real rates held between -0.5% and +0.5% for the next decade - about 2 points below their expected real GDP growth rate.</p>\n<p>While flatlining, that’s still higher than today’s rate - although it assumes some modest Fed tightening at some point.</p>\n<p>And of course, the lower the growth rate, the lower the real rate needs to be to rein in debt loads. Morgan Stanley said that if adverse demographics and productivity depressed real GDP growth more than it thought then real rates as low as today’s may have to be sustained to stop debts rising.</p>\n<p>But it also said most episodes of successful debt reduction had generally been accompanied by only moderate but sustained inflation - a median of 2.9% for those successful in cutting debts. Contrary to popular perceptions, hyperinflation ensued only in a very small number of episodes.</p>\n<p>“Our analysis shows that the real rate environment has been key in determining the path of public debt substantially more so than actual fiscal spending.”</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'Boring '20s'? - a decade of zero real rates :Mike Dolan</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'Boring '20s'? - a decade of zero real rates :Mike Dolan\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-16 13:23</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)</p>\n<p>LONDON, July 16 (Reuters) - The U.S. government can once again borrow at a deeply negative ‘real’ rate of minus 1.0% for 10 years - and some economists insist there’s a powerful historical case for expecting that rate to stay near zero or below for the rest of the decade.</p>\n<p>It’s been fashionable in markets of late to think of another “Roaring ‘20s” emerging over the next decade. Pandemic-driven megatrends, fractious politics, gigantic government debt piles and the return of inflation could all conspire to electrify or unnerve markets over the years ahead - or so the story goes.</p>\n<p>But after a restive first quarter of 2021, global bond markets - still under the spell of heavy central bank buying - appear to be pricing in a very different scenario ahead.</p>\n<p>Even after this week’s June readout of the highest annual gain in U.S. core consumer prices in 30 years - an inflation rate of some 4.5% excluding food and energy prices - the yield on the Treasury’s 10-year inflation-protected bond skidded back below -1.0% for the first time in five months.</p>\n<p>Aside from that brief moment in February, these rates have never been lower - at least not in the history of these securities. And all equivalent rates in the G4 major economies are also below zero, with Germany and Britain even lower than those in the United States.</p>\n<p>Investors pore over everything from ‘peak inflation’ to ‘peak growth’ and even ‘peak stimulus’ for clues as to why bond yields continue to defy forecasts and why they have taken the surge in inflation and government debt levels in their stride.</p>\n<p>U.S. government debt will top 125% of gross domestic product this year and next - its highest since World War Two - and up almost 20 percentage points since before the pandemic. Debt/GDP in G4 economies overall has risen by a similar amount to 125%.</p>\n<p>While many put the seeming nonchalance down to persistent central bank intervention or technical quirks, some also point out to the risk of a weakening ‘fiscal impulse’ over the next two years that mathematically drags on growth rates.</p>\n<p>Manulife Investment Management economist Frances Donald thinks this should be seen as a “fiscal cliff” and the drop in U.S. spending - viewed as a share of resulting falling budget deficit - marks the steepest such cliff since the 1940s.</p>\n<p><b>HIGH PRESSURE</b></p>\n<p>However, G7 leaders pledged last month not to make the mistakes of the last crisis by reducing government spending too soon and reverting to fiscal austerity too early.</p>\n<p>The White House and congressional Democrats at least seem intent on keeping that “high pressure economy” until all sections of society take part. Leading Democrats this week agreed to table another $3.5 trillion investment plan on top of the proposed $600 billion of infrastructure spending already in the pipeline.</p>\n<p>And yet the bond market barely flickered at the prospect.</p>\n<p>Is this just the Federal Reserve’s hand? Is Fed buying really so dominant and can it remain so for years?</p>\n<p>Fed chief Jerome Powell was this week pointedly reluctant to give Congress any hard timeline for a reduction in bond buying and continued to characterize inflation spikes as mostly temporary base effects and bottlenecks from pandemic lockdowns.</p>\n<p>But if the Fed is right about inflation over time and the pursuit of a high pressure economy is now G7 consensus due to equality and climate priorities, history shows bond yields could be down here for a long time to come yet.</p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley economists published a study this week looking at 100 years of data on how countries managed debt blowouts - defined as periods when debt/GDP ratios jumped 20 percentage points in five years.</p>\n<p>They concluded that countries which managed to rein in those debt levels over the subsequent decade had kept looser monetary and fiscal policies longer than those who failed to stop their debt rising. Low debt servicing costs - absent an inflation problem - and growth were shown to be the best ways to keep debts sustainable.</p>\n<p>Studying all outcomes, they reckoned the most successful strategy was to keep real interest rates two percentage points below real GDP growth rates for 10 years and ‘grow out’ of the debt rather than slashing spending. Fiscal consolidation, by contrast, had played a lesser role in the reversal of public debt build-ups over the century, it said.</p>\n<p>On that basis the investment bank saw U.S. real rates held between -0.5% and +0.5% for the next decade - about 2 points below their expected real GDP growth rate.</p>\n<p>While flatlining, that’s still higher than today’s rate - although it assumes some modest Fed tightening at some point.</p>\n<p>And of course, the lower the growth rate, the lower the real rate needs to be to rein in debt loads. Morgan Stanley said that if adverse demographics and productivity depressed real GDP growth more than it thought then real rates as low as today’s may have to be sustained to stop debts rising.</p>\n<p>But it also said most episodes of successful debt reduction had generally been accompanied by only moderate but sustained inflation - a median of 2.9% for those successful in cutting debts. Contrary to popular perceptions, hyperinflation ensued only in a very small number of episodes.</p>\n<p>“Our analysis shows that the real rate environment has been key in determining the path of public debt substantially more so than actual fiscal spending.”</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124361019","content_text":"(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)\nLONDON, July 16 (Reuters) - The U.S. government can once again borrow at a deeply negative ‘real’ rate of minus 1.0% for 10 years - and some economists insist there’s a powerful historical case for expecting that rate to stay near zero or below for the rest of the decade.\nIt’s been fashionable in markets of late to think of another “Roaring ‘20s” emerging over the next decade. Pandemic-driven megatrends, fractious politics, gigantic government debt piles and the return of inflation could all conspire to electrify or unnerve markets over the years ahead - or so the story goes.\nBut after a restive first quarter of 2021, global bond markets - still under the spell of heavy central bank buying - appear to be pricing in a very different scenario ahead.\nEven after this week’s June readout of the highest annual gain in U.S. core consumer prices in 30 years - an inflation rate of some 4.5% excluding food and energy prices - the yield on the Treasury’s 10-year inflation-protected bond skidded back below -1.0% for the first time in five months.\nAside from that brief moment in February, these rates have never been lower - at least not in the history of these securities. And all equivalent rates in the G4 major economies are also below zero, with Germany and Britain even lower than those in the United States.\nInvestors pore over everything from ‘peak inflation’ to ‘peak growth’ and even ‘peak stimulus’ for clues as to why bond yields continue to defy forecasts and why they have taken the surge in inflation and government debt levels in their stride.\nU.S. government debt will top 125% of gross domestic product this year and next - its highest since World War Two - and up almost 20 percentage points since before the pandemic. Debt/GDP in G4 economies overall has risen by a similar amount to 125%.\nWhile many put the seeming nonchalance down to persistent central bank intervention or technical quirks, some also point out to the risk of a weakening ‘fiscal impulse’ over the next two years that mathematically drags on growth rates.\nManulife Investment Management economist Frances Donald thinks this should be seen as a “fiscal cliff” and the drop in U.S. spending - viewed as a share of resulting falling budget deficit - marks the steepest such cliff since the 1940s.\nHIGH PRESSURE\nHowever, G7 leaders pledged last month not to make the mistakes of the last crisis by reducing government spending too soon and reverting to fiscal austerity too early.\nThe White House and congressional Democrats at least seem intent on keeping that “high pressure economy” until all sections of society take part. Leading Democrats this week agreed to table another $3.5 trillion investment plan on top of the proposed $600 billion of infrastructure spending already in the pipeline.\nAnd yet the bond market barely flickered at the prospect.\nIs this just the Federal Reserve’s hand? Is Fed buying really so dominant and can it remain so for years?\nFed chief Jerome Powell was this week pointedly reluctant to give Congress any hard timeline for a reduction in bond buying and continued to characterize inflation spikes as mostly temporary base effects and bottlenecks from pandemic lockdowns.\nBut if the Fed is right about inflation over time and the pursuit of a high pressure economy is now G7 consensus due to equality and climate priorities, history shows bond yields could be down here for a long time to come yet.\nMorgan Stanley economists published a study this week looking at 100 years of data on how countries managed debt blowouts - defined as periods when debt/GDP ratios jumped 20 percentage points in five years.\nThey concluded that countries which managed to rein in those debt levels over the subsequent decade had kept looser monetary and fiscal policies longer than those who failed to stop their debt rising. Low debt servicing costs - absent an inflation problem - and growth were shown to be the best ways to keep debts sustainable.\nStudying all outcomes, they reckoned the most successful strategy was to keep real interest rates two percentage points below real GDP growth rates for 10 years and ‘grow out’ of the debt rather than slashing spending. Fiscal consolidation, by contrast, had played a lesser role in the reversal of public debt build-ups over the century, it said.\nOn that basis the investment bank saw U.S. real rates held between -0.5% and +0.5% for the next decade - about 2 points below their expected real GDP growth rate.\nWhile flatlining, that’s still higher than today’s rate - although it assumes some modest Fed tightening at some point.\nAnd of course, the lower the growth rate, the lower the real rate needs to be to rein in debt loads. Morgan Stanley said that if adverse demographics and productivity depressed real GDP growth more than it thought then real rates as low as today’s may have to be sustained to stop debts rising.\nBut it also said most episodes of successful debt reduction had generally been accompanied by only moderate but sustained inflation - a median of 2.9% for those successful in cutting debts. Contrary to popular perceptions, hyperinflation ensued only in a very small number of episodes.\n“Our analysis shows that the real rate environment has been key in determining the path of public debt substantially more so than actual fiscal spending.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170156545,"gmtCreate":1626414819987,"gmtModify":1703759717463,"author":{"id":"4089440680592730","authorId":"4089440680592730","name":"Bluefaerie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a14cce34aa8b490facc68d4c62d3704","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089440680592730","idStr":"4089440680592730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170156545","repostId":"1124361019","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124361019","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1626413039,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124361019?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-16 13:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Boring '20s'? - a decade of zero real rates :Mike Dolan","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124361019","media":"Reuters","summary":"(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)\nLONDON, July 16 (Reu","content":"<p>(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)</p>\n<p>LONDON, July 16 (Reuters) - The U.S. government can once again borrow at a deeply negative ‘real’ rate of minus 1.0% for 10 years - and some economists insist there’s a powerful historical case for expecting that rate to stay near zero or below for the rest of the decade.</p>\n<p>It’s been fashionable in markets of late to think of another “Roaring ‘20s” emerging over the next decade. Pandemic-driven megatrends, fractious politics, gigantic government debt piles and the return of inflation could all conspire to electrify or unnerve markets over the years ahead - or so the story goes.</p>\n<p>But after a restive first quarter of 2021, global bond markets - still under the spell of heavy central bank buying - appear to be pricing in a very different scenario ahead.</p>\n<p>Even after this week’s June readout of the highest annual gain in U.S. core consumer prices in 30 years - an inflation rate of some 4.5% excluding food and energy prices - the yield on the Treasury’s 10-year inflation-protected bond skidded back below -1.0% for the first time in five months.</p>\n<p>Aside from that brief moment in February, these rates have never been lower - at least not in the history of these securities. And all equivalent rates in the G4 major economies are also below zero, with Germany and Britain even lower than those in the United States.</p>\n<p>Investors pore over everything from ‘peak inflation’ to ‘peak growth’ and even ‘peak stimulus’ for clues as to why bond yields continue to defy forecasts and why they have taken the surge in inflation and government debt levels in their stride.</p>\n<p>U.S. government debt will top 125% of gross domestic product this year and next - its highest since World War Two - and up almost 20 percentage points since before the pandemic. Debt/GDP in G4 economies overall has risen by a similar amount to 125%.</p>\n<p>While many put the seeming nonchalance down to persistent central bank intervention or technical quirks, some also point out to the risk of a weakening ‘fiscal impulse’ over the next two years that mathematically drags on growth rates.</p>\n<p>Manulife Investment Management economist Frances Donald thinks this should be seen as a “fiscal cliff” and the drop in U.S. spending - viewed as a share of resulting falling budget deficit - marks the steepest such cliff since the 1940s.</p>\n<p><b>HIGH PRESSURE</b></p>\n<p>However, G7 leaders pledged last month not to make the mistakes of the last crisis by reducing government spending too soon and reverting to fiscal austerity too early.</p>\n<p>The White House and congressional Democrats at least seem intent on keeping that “high pressure economy” until all sections of society take part. Leading Democrats this week agreed to table another $3.5 trillion investment plan on top of the proposed $600 billion of infrastructure spending already in the pipeline.</p>\n<p>And yet the bond market barely flickered at the prospect.</p>\n<p>Is this just the Federal Reserve’s hand? Is Fed buying really so dominant and can it remain so for years?</p>\n<p>Fed chief Jerome Powell was this week pointedly reluctant to give Congress any hard timeline for a reduction in bond buying and continued to characterize inflation spikes as mostly temporary base effects and bottlenecks from pandemic lockdowns.</p>\n<p>But if the Fed is right about inflation over time and the pursuit of a high pressure economy is now G7 consensus due to equality and climate priorities, history shows bond yields could be down here for a long time to come yet.</p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley economists published a study this week looking at 100 years of data on how countries managed debt blowouts - defined as periods when debt/GDP ratios jumped 20 percentage points in five years.</p>\n<p>They concluded that countries which managed to rein in those debt levels over the subsequent decade had kept looser monetary and fiscal policies longer than those who failed to stop their debt rising. Low debt servicing costs - absent an inflation problem - and growth were shown to be the best ways to keep debts sustainable.</p>\n<p>Studying all outcomes, they reckoned the most successful strategy was to keep real interest rates two percentage points below real GDP growth rates for 10 years and ‘grow out’ of the debt rather than slashing spending. Fiscal consolidation, by contrast, had played a lesser role in the reversal of public debt build-ups over the century, it said.</p>\n<p>On that basis the investment bank saw U.S. real rates held between -0.5% and +0.5% for the next decade - about 2 points below their expected real GDP growth rate.</p>\n<p>While flatlining, that’s still higher than today’s rate - although it assumes some modest Fed tightening at some point.</p>\n<p>And of course, the lower the growth rate, the lower the real rate needs to be to rein in debt loads. Morgan Stanley said that if adverse demographics and productivity depressed real GDP growth more than it thought then real rates as low as today’s may have to be sustained to stop debts rising.</p>\n<p>But it also said most episodes of successful debt reduction had generally been accompanied by only moderate but sustained inflation - a median of 2.9% for those successful in cutting debts. Contrary to popular perceptions, hyperinflation ensued only in a very small number of episodes.</p>\n<p>“Our analysis shows that the real rate environment has been key in determining the path of public debt substantially more so than actual fiscal spending.”</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'Boring '20s'? - a decade of zero real rates :Mike Dolan</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'Boring '20s'? - a decade of zero real rates :Mike Dolan\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-16 13:23</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)</p>\n<p>LONDON, July 16 (Reuters) - The U.S. government can once again borrow at a deeply negative ‘real’ rate of minus 1.0% for 10 years - and some economists insist there’s a powerful historical case for expecting that rate to stay near zero or below for the rest of the decade.</p>\n<p>It’s been fashionable in markets of late to think of another “Roaring ‘20s” emerging over the next decade. Pandemic-driven megatrends, fractious politics, gigantic government debt piles and the return of inflation could all conspire to electrify or unnerve markets over the years ahead - or so the story goes.</p>\n<p>But after a restive first quarter of 2021, global bond markets - still under the spell of heavy central bank buying - appear to be pricing in a very different scenario ahead.</p>\n<p>Even after this week’s June readout of the highest annual gain in U.S. core consumer prices in 30 years - an inflation rate of some 4.5% excluding food and energy prices - the yield on the Treasury’s 10-year inflation-protected bond skidded back below -1.0% for the first time in five months.</p>\n<p>Aside from that brief moment in February, these rates have never been lower - at least not in the history of these securities. And all equivalent rates in the G4 major economies are also below zero, with Germany and Britain even lower than those in the United States.</p>\n<p>Investors pore over everything from ‘peak inflation’ to ‘peak growth’ and even ‘peak stimulus’ for clues as to why bond yields continue to defy forecasts and why they have taken the surge in inflation and government debt levels in their stride.</p>\n<p>U.S. government debt will top 125% of gross domestic product this year and next - its highest since World War Two - and up almost 20 percentage points since before the pandemic. Debt/GDP in G4 economies overall has risen by a similar amount to 125%.</p>\n<p>While many put the seeming nonchalance down to persistent central bank intervention or technical quirks, some also point out to the risk of a weakening ‘fiscal impulse’ over the next two years that mathematically drags on growth rates.</p>\n<p>Manulife Investment Management economist Frances Donald thinks this should be seen as a “fiscal cliff” and the drop in U.S. spending - viewed as a share of resulting falling budget deficit - marks the steepest such cliff since the 1940s.</p>\n<p><b>HIGH PRESSURE</b></p>\n<p>However, G7 leaders pledged last month not to make the mistakes of the last crisis by reducing government spending too soon and reverting to fiscal austerity too early.</p>\n<p>The White House and congressional Democrats at least seem intent on keeping that “high pressure economy” until all sections of society take part. Leading Democrats this week agreed to table another $3.5 trillion investment plan on top of the proposed $600 billion of infrastructure spending already in the pipeline.</p>\n<p>And yet the bond market barely flickered at the prospect.</p>\n<p>Is this just the Federal Reserve’s hand? Is Fed buying really so dominant and can it remain so for years?</p>\n<p>Fed chief Jerome Powell was this week pointedly reluctant to give Congress any hard timeline for a reduction in bond buying and continued to characterize inflation spikes as mostly temporary base effects and bottlenecks from pandemic lockdowns.</p>\n<p>But if the Fed is right about inflation over time and the pursuit of a high pressure economy is now G7 consensus due to equality and climate priorities, history shows bond yields could be down here for a long time to come yet.</p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley economists published a study this week looking at 100 years of data on how countries managed debt blowouts - defined as periods when debt/GDP ratios jumped 20 percentage points in five years.</p>\n<p>They concluded that countries which managed to rein in those debt levels over the subsequent decade had kept looser monetary and fiscal policies longer than those who failed to stop their debt rising. Low debt servicing costs - absent an inflation problem - and growth were shown to be the best ways to keep debts sustainable.</p>\n<p>Studying all outcomes, they reckoned the most successful strategy was to keep real interest rates two percentage points below real GDP growth rates for 10 years and ‘grow out’ of the debt rather than slashing spending. Fiscal consolidation, by contrast, had played a lesser role in the reversal of public debt build-ups over the century, it said.</p>\n<p>On that basis the investment bank saw U.S. real rates held between -0.5% and +0.5% for the next decade - about 2 points below their expected real GDP growth rate.</p>\n<p>While flatlining, that’s still higher than today’s rate - although it assumes some modest Fed tightening at some point.</p>\n<p>And of course, the lower the growth rate, the lower the real rate needs to be to rein in debt loads. Morgan Stanley said that if adverse demographics and productivity depressed real GDP growth more than it thought then real rates as low as today’s may have to be sustained to stop debts rising.</p>\n<p>But it also said most episodes of successful debt reduction had generally been accompanied by only moderate but sustained inflation - a median of 2.9% for those successful in cutting debts. Contrary to popular perceptions, hyperinflation ensued only in a very small number of episodes.</p>\n<p>“Our analysis shows that the real rate environment has been key in determining the path of public debt substantially more so than actual fiscal spending.”</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124361019","content_text":"(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)\nLONDON, July 16 (Reuters) - The U.S. government can once again borrow at a deeply negative ‘real’ rate of minus 1.0% for 10 years - and some economists insist there’s a powerful historical case for expecting that rate to stay near zero or below for the rest of the decade.\nIt’s been fashionable in markets of late to think of another “Roaring ‘20s” emerging over the next decade. Pandemic-driven megatrends, fractious politics, gigantic government debt piles and the return of inflation could all conspire to electrify or unnerve markets over the years ahead - or so the story goes.\nBut after a restive first quarter of 2021, global bond markets - still under the spell of heavy central bank buying - appear to be pricing in a very different scenario ahead.\nEven after this week’s June readout of the highest annual gain in U.S. core consumer prices in 30 years - an inflation rate of some 4.5% excluding food and energy prices - the yield on the Treasury’s 10-year inflation-protected bond skidded back below -1.0% for the first time in five months.\nAside from that brief moment in February, these rates have never been lower - at least not in the history of these securities. And all equivalent rates in the G4 major economies are also below zero, with Germany and Britain even lower than those in the United States.\nInvestors pore over everything from ‘peak inflation’ to ‘peak growth’ and even ‘peak stimulus’ for clues as to why bond yields continue to defy forecasts and why they have taken the surge in inflation and government debt levels in their stride.\nU.S. government debt will top 125% of gross domestic product this year and next - its highest since World War Two - and up almost 20 percentage points since before the pandemic. Debt/GDP in G4 economies overall has risen by a similar amount to 125%.\nWhile many put the seeming nonchalance down to persistent central bank intervention or technical quirks, some also point out to the risk of a weakening ‘fiscal impulse’ over the next two years that mathematically drags on growth rates.\nManulife Investment Management economist Frances Donald thinks this should be seen as a “fiscal cliff” and the drop in U.S. spending - viewed as a share of resulting falling budget deficit - marks the steepest such cliff since the 1940s.\nHIGH PRESSURE\nHowever, G7 leaders pledged last month not to make the mistakes of the last crisis by reducing government spending too soon and reverting to fiscal austerity too early.\nThe White House and congressional Democrats at least seem intent on keeping that “high pressure economy” until all sections of society take part. Leading Democrats this week agreed to table another $3.5 trillion investment plan on top of the proposed $600 billion of infrastructure spending already in the pipeline.\nAnd yet the bond market barely flickered at the prospect.\nIs this just the Federal Reserve’s hand? Is Fed buying really so dominant and can it remain so for years?\nFed chief Jerome Powell was this week pointedly reluctant to give Congress any hard timeline for a reduction in bond buying and continued to characterize inflation spikes as mostly temporary base effects and bottlenecks from pandemic lockdowns.\nBut if the Fed is right about inflation over time and the pursuit of a high pressure economy is now G7 consensus due to equality and climate priorities, history shows bond yields could be down here for a long time to come yet.\nMorgan Stanley economists published a study this week looking at 100 years of data on how countries managed debt blowouts - defined as periods when debt/GDP ratios jumped 20 percentage points in five years.\nThey concluded that countries which managed to rein in those debt levels over the subsequent decade had kept looser monetary and fiscal policies longer than those who failed to stop their debt rising. Low debt servicing costs - absent an inflation problem - and growth were shown to be the best ways to keep debts sustainable.\nStudying all outcomes, they reckoned the most successful strategy was to keep real interest rates two percentage points below real GDP growth rates for 10 years and ‘grow out’ of the debt rather than slashing spending. Fiscal consolidation, by contrast, had played a lesser role in the reversal of public debt build-ups over the century, it said.\nOn that basis the investment bank saw U.S. real rates held between -0.5% and +0.5% for the next decade - about 2 points below their expected real GDP growth rate.\nWhile flatlining, that’s still higher than today’s rate - although it assumes some modest Fed tightening at some point.\nAnd of course, the lower the growth rate, the lower the real rate needs to be to rein in debt loads. Morgan Stanley said that if adverse demographics and productivity depressed real GDP growth more than it thought then real rates as low as today’s may have to be sustained to stop debts rising.\nBut it also said most episodes of successful debt reduction had generally been accompanied by only moderate but sustained inflation - a median of 2.9% for those successful in cutting debts. Contrary to popular perceptions, hyperinflation ensued only in a very small number of episodes.\n“Our analysis shows that the real rate environment has been key in determining the path of public debt substantially more so than actual fiscal spending.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":804022606,"gmtCreate":1627913067805,"gmtModify":1703497771982,"author":{"id":"4089440680592730","authorId":"4089440680592730","name":"Bluefaerie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a14cce34aa8b490facc68d4c62d3704","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089440680592730","idStr":"4089440680592730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/804022606","repostId":"1169778745","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169778745","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627911880,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169778745?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-02 21:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Airline shares, Carnival stocks were mostly higher","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169778745","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(August 2) Shares of Carnival Corp. were up 2.52% in early trading. Major banks including Morgan Sta","content":"<p>(August 2)&nbsp;Shares of Carnival Corp. were up 2.52% in early trading. Major banks including Morgan Stanley and Bank of America were higher. Airline shares were mostly higher.</p>\n<p>“We believe the reopening and recovery trend is on track and continue to see upside for equities,” wrote Mark Haefele, chief investment officer of global wealth management at UBS. “We expect the S&amp;P 500 to climb to around 4,650 by June next year, versus 4,395 at present. But we see the greatest upside for cyclical parts of the market, including energy, financials, and Japanese stocks.”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d1f8013a64fda7879ad10c4e7559aec\" tg-width=\"313\" tg-height=\"363\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Airline shares, Carnival stocks were mostly higher</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAirline shares, Carnival stocks were mostly higher\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-02 21:44</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(August 2)&nbsp;Shares of Carnival Corp. were up 2.52% in early trading. Major banks including Morgan Stanley and Bank of America were higher. Airline shares were mostly higher.</p>\n<p>“We believe the reopening and recovery trend is on track and continue to see upside for equities,” wrote Mark Haefele, chief investment officer of global wealth management at UBS. “We expect the S&amp;P 500 to climb to around 4,650 by June next year, versus 4,395 at present. But we see the greatest upside for cyclical parts of the market, including energy, financials, and Japanese stocks.”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d1f8013a64fda7879ad10c4e7559aec\" tg-width=\"313\" tg-height=\"363\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169778745","content_text":"(August 2) Shares of Carnival Corp. were up 2.52% in early trading. Major banks including Morgan Stanley and Bank of America were higher. Airline shares were mostly higher.\n“We believe the reopening and recovery trend is on track and continue to see upside for equities,” wrote Mark Haefele, chief investment officer of global wealth management at UBS. “We expect the S&P 500 to climb to around 4,650 by June next year, versus 4,395 at present. But we see the greatest upside for cyclical parts of the market, including energy, financials, and Japanese stocks.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172355742,"gmtCreate":1626939810486,"gmtModify":1703480948061,"author":{"id":"4089440680592730","authorId":"4089440680592730","name":"Bluefaerie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a14cce34aa8b490facc68d4c62d3704","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089440680592730","idStr":"4089440680592730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Informative","listText":"Informative","text":"Informative","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/172355742","repostId":"1199772945","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2888,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178721111,"gmtCreate":1626839165933,"gmtModify":1703766191218,"author":{"id":"4089440680592730","authorId":"4089440680592730","name":"Bluefaerie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a14cce34aa8b490facc68d4c62d3704","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089440680592730","idStr":"4089440680592730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woah","listText":"Woah","text":"Woah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178721111","repostId":"1196827638","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3524,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175203397,"gmtCreate":1627031584319,"gmtModify":1703482835856,"author":{"id":"4089440680592730","authorId":"4089440680592730","name":"Bluefaerie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a14cce34aa8b490facc68d4c62d3704","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089440680592730","idStr":"4089440680592730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is this overvaluation?","listText":"Is this overvaluation?","text":"Is this overvaluation?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/175203397","repostId":"1164478982","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809280026,"gmtCreate":1627372814965,"gmtModify":1703488599037,"author":{"id":"4089440680592730","authorId":"4089440680592730","name":"Bluefaerie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a14cce34aa8b490facc68d4c62d3704","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089440680592730","idStr":"4089440680592730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"please like ?","listText":"please like ?","text":"please like ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809280026","repostId":"2154875967","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2154875967","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1627372266,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2154875967?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-27 15:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How the 10-year Treasury rate and S&P 500 performed when the Fed tapered in 2013","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2154875967","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"In the wake of the Great Recession, it took about five years for the U.S. central bank to start slow","content":"<p>In the wake of the Great Recession, it took about five years for the U.S. central bank to start slowing down its controversial large-scale bond-buying program, ultimately making 2013 the year of the \"taper tantrum .\"</p>\n<p>Federal Reserve officials have said they'd rather avoid a repeat of that episode, when it comes to eventually scaling back its $120 billion-a-month, pandemic-era asset-purchase program.</p>\n<p>And while it felt like the U.S. stock and bond markets both freaked out in 2013, a review of the S&amp;P 500's performance in that tumultuous year shows it turned out pretty well for equity investors who stayed the course.</p>\n<p>Following a roughly 6% pullback post-Fed taper announcement, the S&amp;P 500 finished the year higher by about 30%, according to the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5888ee701d08887e5b8d11bca7d6e30\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>S&amp;P 500 rose 30% in 2013. WELLS FARGO INVESTMENT INSTITUTE</span></p>\n<p>At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield nearly doubled in six months from a low of almost 1.5% to roughly 3.1% by that December, leading to higher borrowing costs that rippled through the U.S. economy, from commercial real-estate owners to U.S. corporations <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LQD\">$(LQD)$</a>.</p>\n<p>\"Higher inflation, rising long-term interest rates, and a less dovish Fed could potentially cause the market to pause,\" Chris Haverland, Wells Fargo Institute's global equity strategist wrote, in a Monday note.</p>\n<p>\"However, equities have historically performed well through these events, even if there was some initial selling pressure.\"</p>\n<p>Haverland thinks the Fed may announce plans to reduce its asset purchases later this year, which could lift longer-duration Treasury rates, including the 10-year, from its current 1.3% range. He also prefers to stick to his wheelhouse in equities over bonds.</p>\n<p>\"If the market corrects, we would view it as an opportunity to fill our equity positions that may be below strategic or tactical targets,\" he said.</p>\n<p>During the pandemic, the Fed has been buying about $80 billion of Treasurys each month and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), while increasing its balance sheet to about $8.2 trillion .</p>\n<p>Some Fed officials have been debating buying, as a first step to withdrawing some support, particularly since the U.S. housing market has been red-hot during the COVID crisis, albeit with recent signs of cooling.</p>\n<p>The Federal Reserve kicks off a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, with a statement due Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern, followed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference.</p>\n<p>U.S. stocks drifted higher into record territory on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average , S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index claiming new closing highs.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How the 10-year Treasury rate and S&P 500 performed when the Fed tapered in 2013</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow the 10-year Treasury rate and S&P 500 performed when the Fed tapered in 2013\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-27 15:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-the-10-year-treasury-rate-and-s-p-500-performed-when-the-fed-tapered-in-2013-11627344095?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In the wake of the Great Recession, it took about five years for the U.S. central bank to start slowing down its controversial large-scale bond-buying program, ultimately making 2013 the year of the \"...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-the-10-year-treasury-rate-and-s-p-500-performed-when-the-fed-tapered-in-2013-11627344095?mod=home-page\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时",".DJI":"道琼斯","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","LQD":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx投资级公司债",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","MBB":"美国按揭抵押债券ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-the-10-year-treasury-rate-and-s-p-500-performed-when-the-fed-tapered-in-2013-11627344095?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2154875967","content_text":"In the wake of the Great Recession, it took about five years for the U.S. central bank to start slowing down its controversial large-scale bond-buying program, ultimately making 2013 the year of the \"taper tantrum .\"\nFederal Reserve officials have said they'd rather avoid a repeat of that episode, when it comes to eventually scaling back its $120 billion-a-month, pandemic-era asset-purchase program.\nAnd while it felt like the U.S. stock and bond markets both freaked out in 2013, a review of the S&P 500's performance in that tumultuous year shows it turned out pretty well for equity investors who stayed the course.\nFollowing a roughly 6% pullback post-Fed taper announcement, the S&P 500 finished the year higher by about 30%, according to the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.\nS&P 500 rose 30% in 2013. WELLS FARGO INVESTMENT INSTITUTE\nAt the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield nearly doubled in six months from a low of almost 1.5% to roughly 3.1% by that December, leading to higher borrowing costs that rippled through the U.S. economy, from commercial real-estate owners to U.S. corporations $(LQD)$.\n\"Higher inflation, rising long-term interest rates, and a less dovish Fed could potentially cause the market to pause,\" Chris Haverland, Wells Fargo Institute's global equity strategist wrote, in a Monday note.\n\"However, equities have historically performed well through these events, even if there was some initial selling pressure.\"\nHaverland thinks the Fed may announce plans to reduce its asset purchases later this year, which could lift longer-duration Treasury rates, including the 10-year, from its current 1.3% range. He also prefers to stick to his wheelhouse in equities over bonds.\n\"If the market corrects, we would view it as an opportunity to fill our equity positions that may be below strategic or tactical targets,\" he said.\nDuring the pandemic, the Fed has been buying about $80 billion of Treasurys each month and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), while increasing its balance sheet to about $8.2 trillion .\nSome Fed officials have been debating buying, as a first step to withdrawing some support, particularly since the U.S. housing market has been red-hot during the COVID crisis, albeit with recent signs of cooling.\nThe Federal Reserve kicks off a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, with a statement due Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern, followed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference.\nU.S. stocks drifted higher into record territory on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average , S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index claiming new closing highs.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"MBB":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SH":0.9,"LQD":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPXU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2071,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170140914,"gmtCreate":1626415145838,"gmtModify":1703759723682,"author":{"id":"4089440680592730","authorId":"4089440680592730","name":"Bluefaerie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a14cce34aa8b490facc68d4c62d3704","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089440680592730","idStr":"4089440680592730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170140914","repostId":"1129144056","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":928,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170152692,"gmtCreate":1626414870016,"gmtModify":1703759718624,"author":{"id":"4089440680592730","authorId":"4089440680592730","name":"Bluefaerie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a14cce34aa8b490facc68d4c62d3704","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089440680592730","idStr":"4089440680592730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170152692","repostId":"1124361019","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124361019","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1626413039,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124361019?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-16 13:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Boring '20s'? - a decade of zero real rates :Mike Dolan","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124361019","media":"Reuters","summary":"(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)\nLONDON, July 16 (Reu","content":"<p>(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)</p>\n<p>LONDON, July 16 (Reuters) - The U.S. government can once again borrow at a deeply negative ‘real’ rate of minus 1.0% for 10 years - and some economists insist there’s a powerful historical case for expecting that rate to stay near zero or below for the rest of the decade.</p>\n<p>It’s been fashionable in markets of late to think of another “Roaring ‘20s” emerging over the next decade. Pandemic-driven megatrends, fractious politics, gigantic government debt piles and the return of inflation could all conspire to electrify or unnerve markets over the years ahead - or so the story goes.</p>\n<p>But after a restive first quarter of 2021, global bond markets - still under the spell of heavy central bank buying - appear to be pricing in a very different scenario ahead.</p>\n<p>Even after this week’s June readout of the highest annual gain in U.S. core consumer prices in 30 years - an inflation rate of some 4.5% excluding food and energy prices - the yield on the Treasury’s 10-year inflation-protected bond skidded back below -1.0% for the first time in five months.</p>\n<p>Aside from that brief moment in February, these rates have never been lower - at least not in the history of these securities. And all equivalent rates in the G4 major economies are also below zero, with Germany and Britain even lower than those in the United States.</p>\n<p>Investors pore over everything from ‘peak inflation’ to ‘peak growth’ and even ‘peak stimulus’ for clues as to why bond yields continue to defy forecasts and why they have taken the surge in inflation and government debt levels in their stride.</p>\n<p>U.S. government debt will top 125% of gross domestic product this year and next - its highest since World War Two - and up almost 20 percentage points since before the pandemic. Debt/GDP in G4 economies overall has risen by a similar amount to 125%.</p>\n<p>While many put the seeming nonchalance down to persistent central bank intervention or technical quirks, some also point out to the risk of a weakening ‘fiscal impulse’ over the next two years that mathematically drags on growth rates.</p>\n<p>Manulife Investment Management economist Frances Donald thinks this should be seen as a “fiscal cliff” and the drop in U.S. spending - viewed as a share of resulting falling budget deficit - marks the steepest such cliff since the 1940s.</p>\n<p><b>HIGH PRESSURE</b></p>\n<p>However, G7 leaders pledged last month not to make the mistakes of the last crisis by reducing government spending too soon and reverting to fiscal austerity too early.</p>\n<p>The White House and congressional Democrats at least seem intent on keeping that “high pressure economy” until all sections of society take part. Leading Democrats this week agreed to table another $3.5 trillion investment plan on top of the proposed $600 billion of infrastructure spending already in the pipeline.</p>\n<p>And yet the bond market barely flickered at the prospect.</p>\n<p>Is this just the Federal Reserve’s hand? Is Fed buying really so dominant and can it remain so for years?</p>\n<p>Fed chief Jerome Powell was this week pointedly reluctant to give Congress any hard timeline for a reduction in bond buying and continued to characterize inflation spikes as mostly temporary base effects and bottlenecks from pandemic lockdowns.</p>\n<p>But if the Fed is right about inflation over time and the pursuit of a high pressure economy is now G7 consensus due to equality and climate priorities, history shows bond yields could be down here for a long time to come yet.</p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley economists published a study this week looking at 100 years of data on how countries managed debt blowouts - defined as periods when debt/GDP ratios jumped 20 percentage points in five years.</p>\n<p>They concluded that countries which managed to rein in those debt levels over the subsequent decade had kept looser monetary and fiscal policies longer than those who failed to stop their debt rising. Low debt servicing costs - absent an inflation problem - and growth were shown to be the best ways to keep debts sustainable.</p>\n<p>Studying all outcomes, they reckoned the most successful strategy was to keep real interest rates two percentage points below real GDP growth rates for 10 years and ‘grow out’ of the debt rather than slashing spending. Fiscal consolidation, by contrast, had played a lesser role in the reversal of public debt build-ups over the century, it said.</p>\n<p>On that basis the investment bank saw U.S. real rates held between -0.5% and +0.5% for the next decade - about 2 points below their expected real GDP growth rate.</p>\n<p>While flatlining, that’s still higher than today’s rate - although it assumes some modest Fed tightening at some point.</p>\n<p>And of course, the lower the growth rate, the lower the real rate needs to be to rein in debt loads. Morgan Stanley said that if adverse demographics and productivity depressed real GDP growth more than it thought then real rates as low as today’s may have to be sustained to stop debts rising.</p>\n<p>But it also said most episodes of successful debt reduction had generally been accompanied by only moderate but sustained inflation - a median of 2.9% for those successful in cutting debts. Contrary to popular perceptions, hyperinflation ensued only in a very small number of episodes.</p>\n<p>“Our analysis shows that the real rate environment has been key in determining the path of public debt substantially more so than actual fiscal spending.”</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'Boring '20s'? - a decade of zero real rates :Mike Dolan</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'Boring '20s'? - a decade of zero real rates :Mike Dolan\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-16 13:23</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)</p>\n<p>LONDON, July 16 (Reuters) - The U.S. government can once again borrow at a deeply negative ‘real’ rate of minus 1.0% for 10 years - and some economists insist there’s a powerful historical case for expecting that rate to stay near zero or below for the rest of the decade.</p>\n<p>It’s been fashionable in markets of late to think of another “Roaring ‘20s” emerging over the next decade. Pandemic-driven megatrends, fractious politics, gigantic government debt piles and the return of inflation could all conspire to electrify or unnerve markets over the years ahead - or so the story goes.</p>\n<p>But after a restive first quarter of 2021, global bond markets - still under the spell of heavy central bank buying - appear to be pricing in a very different scenario ahead.</p>\n<p>Even after this week’s June readout of the highest annual gain in U.S. core consumer prices in 30 years - an inflation rate of some 4.5% excluding food and energy prices - the yield on the Treasury’s 10-year inflation-protected bond skidded back below -1.0% for the first time in five months.</p>\n<p>Aside from that brief moment in February, these rates have never been lower - at least not in the history of these securities. And all equivalent rates in the G4 major economies are also below zero, with Germany and Britain even lower than those in the United States.</p>\n<p>Investors pore over everything from ‘peak inflation’ to ‘peak growth’ and even ‘peak stimulus’ for clues as to why bond yields continue to defy forecasts and why they have taken the surge in inflation and government debt levels in their stride.</p>\n<p>U.S. government debt will top 125% of gross domestic product this year and next - its highest since World War Two - and up almost 20 percentage points since before the pandemic. Debt/GDP in G4 economies overall has risen by a similar amount to 125%.</p>\n<p>While many put the seeming nonchalance down to persistent central bank intervention or technical quirks, some also point out to the risk of a weakening ‘fiscal impulse’ over the next two years that mathematically drags on growth rates.</p>\n<p>Manulife Investment Management economist Frances Donald thinks this should be seen as a “fiscal cliff” and the drop in U.S. spending - viewed as a share of resulting falling budget deficit - marks the steepest such cliff since the 1940s.</p>\n<p><b>HIGH PRESSURE</b></p>\n<p>However, G7 leaders pledged last month not to make the mistakes of the last crisis by reducing government spending too soon and reverting to fiscal austerity too early.</p>\n<p>The White House and congressional Democrats at least seem intent on keeping that “high pressure economy” until all sections of society take part. Leading Democrats this week agreed to table another $3.5 trillion investment plan on top of the proposed $600 billion of infrastructure spending already in the pipeline.</p>\n<p>And yet the bond market barely flickered at the prospect.</p>\n<p>Is this just the Federal Reserve’s hand? Is Fed buying really so dominant and can it remain so for years?</p>\n<p>Fed chief Jerome Powell was this week pointedly reluctant to give Congress any hard timeline for a reduction in bond buying and continued to characterize inflation spikes as mostly temporary base effects and bottlenecks from pandemic lockdowns.</p>\n<p>But if the Fed is right about inflation over time and the pursuit of a high pressure economy is now G7 consensus due to equality and climate priorities, history shows bond yields could be down here for a long time to come yet.</p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley economists published a study this week looking at 100 years of data on how countries managed debt blowouts - defined as periods when debt/GDP ratios jumped 20 percentage points in five years.</p>\n<p>They concluded that countries which managed to rein in those debt levels over the subsequent decade had kept looser monetary and fiscal policies longer than those who failed to stop their debt rising. Low debt servicing costs - absent an inflation problem - and growth were shown to be the best ways to keep debts sustainable.</p>\n<p>Studying all outcomes, they reckoned the most successful strategy was to keep real interest rates two percentage points below real GDP growth rates for 10 years and ‘grow out’ of the debt rather than slashing spending. Fiscal consolidation, by contrast, had played a lesser role in the reversal of public debt build-ups over the century, it said.</p>\n<p>On that basis the investment bank saw U.S. real rates held between -0.5% and +0.5% for the next decade - about 2 points below their expected real GDP growth rate.</p>\n<p>While flatlining, that’s still higher than today’s rate - although it assumes some modest Fed tightening at some point.</p>\n<p>And of course, the lower the growth rate, the lower the real rate needs to be to rein in debt loads. Morgan Stanley said that if adverse demographics and productivity depressed real GDP growth more than it thought then real rates as low as today’s may have to be sustained to stop debts rising.</p>\n<p>But it also said most episodes of successful debt reduction had generally been accompanied by only moderate but sustained inflation - a median of 2.9% for those successful in cutting debts. Contrary to popular perceptions, hyperinflation ensued only in a very small number of episodes.</p>\n<p>“Our analysis shows that the real rate environment has been key in determining the path of public debt substantially more so than actual fiscal spending.”</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124361019","content_text":"(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)\nLONDON, July 16 (Reuters) - The U.S. government can once again borrow at a deeply negative ‘real’ rate of minus 1.0% for 10 years - and some economists insist there’s a powerful historical case for expecting that rate to stay near zero or below for the rest of the decade.\nIt’s been fashionable in markets of late to think of another “Roaring ‘20s” emerging over the next decade. Pandemic-driven megatrends, fractious politics, gigantic government debt piles and the return of inflation could all conspire to electrify or unnerve markets over the years ahead - or so the story goes.\nBut after a restive first quarter of 2021, global bond markets - still under the spell of heavy central bank buying - appear to be pricing in a very different scenario ahead.\nEven after this week’s June readout of the highest annual gain in U.S. core consumer prices in 30 years - an inflation rate of some 4.5% excluding food and energy prices - the yield on the Treasury’s 10-year inflation-protected bond skidded back below -1.0% for the first time in five months.\nAside from that brief moment in February, these rates have never been lower - at least not in the history of these securities. And all equivalent rates in the G4 major economies are also below zero, with Germany and Britain even lower than those in the United States.\nInvestors pore over everything from ‘peak inflation’ to ‘peak growth’ and even ‘peak stimulus’ for clues as to why bond yields continue to defy forecasts and why they have taken the surge in inflation and government debt levels in their stride.\nU.S. government debt will top 125% of gross domestic product this year and next - its highest since World War Two - and up almost 20 percentage points since before the pandemic. Debt/GDP in G4 economies overall has risen by a similar amount to 125%.\nWhile many put the seeming nonchalance down to persistent central bank intervention or technical quirks, some also point out to the risk of a weakening ‘fiscal impulse’ over the next two years that mathematically drags on growth rates.\nManulife Investment Management economist Frances Donald thinks this should be seen as a “fiscal cliff” and the drop in U.S. spending - viewed as a share of resulting falling budget deficit - marks the steepest such cliff since the 1940s.\nHIGH PRESSURE\nHowever, G7 leaders pledged last month not to make the mistakes of the last crisis by reducing government spending too soon and reverting to fiscal austerity too early.\nThe White House and congressional Democrats at least seem intent on keeping that “high pressure economy” until all sections of society take part. Leading Democrats this week agreed to table another $3.5 trillion investment plan on top of the proposed $600 billion of infrastructure spending already in the pipeline.\nAnd yet the bond market barely flickered at the prospect.\nIs this just the Federal Reserve’s hand? Is Fed buying really so dominant and can it remain so for years?\nFed chief Jerome Powell was this week pointedly reluctant to give Congress any hard timeline for a reduction in bond buying and continued to characterize inflation spikes as mostly temporary base effects and bottlenecks from pandemic lockdowns.\nBut if the Fed is right about inflation over time and the pursuit of a high pressure economy is now G7 consensus due to equality and climate priorities, history shows bond yields could be down here for a long time to come yet.\nMorgan Stanley economists published a study this week looking at 100 years of data on how countries managed debt blowouts - defined as periods when debt/GDP ratios jumped 20 percentage points in five years.\nThey concluded that countries which managed to rein in those debt levels over the subsequent decade had kept looser monetary and fiscal policies longer than those who failed to stop their debt rising. Low debt servicing costs - absent an inflation problem - and growth were shown to be the best ways to keep debts sustainable.\nStudying all outcomes, they reckoned the most successful strategy was to keep real interest rates two percentage points below real GDP growth rates for 10 years and ‘grow out’ of the debt rather than slashing spending. Fiscal consolidation, by contrast, had played a lesser role in the reversal of public debt build-ups over the century, it said.\nOn that basis the investment bank saw U.S. real rates held between -0.5% and +0.5% for the next decade - about 2 points below their expected real GDP growth rate.\nWhile flatlining, that’s still higher than today’s rate - although it assumes some modest Fed tightening at some point.\nAnd of course, the lower the growth rate, the lower the real rate needs to be to rein in debt loads. Morgan Stanley said that if adverse demographics and productivity depressed real GDP growth more than it thought then real rates as low as today’s may have to be sustained to stop debts rising.\nBut it also said most episodes of successful debt reduction had generally been accompanied by only moderate but sustained inflation - a median of 2.9% for those successful in cutting debts. Contrary to popular perceptions, hyperinflation ensued only in a very small number of episodes.\n“Our analysis shows that the real rate environment has been key in determining the path of public debt substantially more so than actual fiscal spending.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170156545,"gmtCreate":1626414819987,"gmtModify":1703759717463,"author":{"id":"4089440680592730","authorId":"4089440680592730","name":"Bluefaerie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a14cce34aa8b490facc68d4c62d3704","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089440680592730","idStr":"4089440680592730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170156545","repostId":"1124361019","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124361019","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1626413039,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124361019?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-16 13:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Boring '20s'? - a decade of zero real rates :Mike Dolan","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124361019","media":"Reuters","summary":"(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)\nLONDON, July 16 (Reu","content":"<p>(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)</p>\n<p>LONDON, July 16 (Reuters) - The U.S. government can once again borrow at a deeply negative ‘real’ rate of minus 1.0% for 10 years - and some economists insist there’s a powerful historical case for expecting that rate to stay near zero or below for the rest of the decade.</p>\n<p>It’s been fashionable in markets of late to think of another “Roaring ‘20s” emerging over the next decade. Pandemic-driven megatrends, fractious politics, gigantic government debt piles and the return of inflation could all conspire to electrify or unnerve markets over the years ahead - or so the story goes.</p>\n<p>But after a restive first quarter of 2021, global bond markets - still under the spell of heavy central bank buying - appear to be pricing in a very different scenario ahead.</p>\n<p>Even after this week’s June readout of the highest annual gain in U.S. core consumer prices in 30 years - an inflation rate of some 4.5% excluding food and energy prices - the yield on the Treasury’s 10-year inflation-protected bond skidded back below -1.0% for the first time in five months.</p>\n<p>Aside from that brief moment in February, these rates have never been lower - at least not in the history of these securities. And all equivalent rates in the G4 major economies are also below zero, with Germany and Britain even lower than those in the United States.</p>\n<p>Investors pore over everything from ‘peak inflation’ to ‘peak growth’ and even ‘peak stimulus’ for clues as to why bond yields continue to defy forecasts and why they have taken the surge in inflation and government debt levels in their stride.</p>\n<p>U.S. government debt will top 125% of gross domestic product this year and next - its highest since World War Two - and up almost 20 percentage points since before the pandemic. Debt/GDP in G4 economies overall has risen by a similar amount to 125%.</p>\n<p>While many put the seeming nonchalance down to persistent central bank intervention or technical quirks, some also point out to the risk of a weakening ‘fiscal impulse’ over the next two years that mathematically drags on growth rates.</p>\n<p>Manulife Investment Management economist Frances Donald thinks this should be seen as a “fiscal cliff” and the drop in U.S. spending - viewed as a share of resulting falling budget deficit - marks the steepest such cliff since the 1940s.</p>\n<p><b>HIGH PRESSURE</b></p>\n<p>However, G7 leaders pledged last month not to make the mistakes of the last crisis by reducing government spending too soon and reverting to fiscal austerity too early.</p>\n<p>The White House and congressional Democrats at least seem intent on keeping that “high pressure economy” until all sections of society take part. Leading Democrats this week agreed to table another $3.5 trillion investment plan on top of the proposed $600 billion of infrastructure spending already in the pipeline.</p>\n<p>And yet the bond market barely flickered at the prospect.</p>\n<p>Is this just the Federal Reserve’s hand? Is Fed buying really so dominant and can it remain so for years?</p>\n<p>Fed chief Jerome Powell was this week pointedly reluctant to give Congress any hard timeline for a reduction in bond buying and continued to characterize inflation spikes as mostly temporary base effects and bottlenecks from pandemic lockdowns.</p>\n<p>But if the Fed is right about inflation over time and the pursuit of a high pressure economy is now G7 consensus due to equality and climate priorities, history shows bond yields could be down here for a long time to come yet.</p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley economists published a study this week looking at 100 years of data on how countries managed debt blowouts - defined as periods when debt/GDP ratios jumped 20 percentage points in five years.</p>\n<p>They concluded that countries which managed to rein in those debt levels over the subsequent decade had kept looser monetary and fiscal policies longer than those who failed to stop their debt rising. Low debt servicing costs - absent an inflation problem - and growth were shown to be the best ways to keep debts sustainable.</p>\n<p>Studying all outcomes, they reckoned the most successful strategy was to keep real interest rates two percentage points below real GDP growth rates for 10 years and ‘grow out’ of the debt rather than slashing spending. Fiscal consolidation, by contrast, had played a lesser role in the reversal of public debt build-ups over the century, it said.</p>\n<p>On that basis the investment bank saw U.S. real rates held between -0.5% and +0.5% for the next decade - about 2 points below their expected real GDP growth rate.</p>\n<p>While flatlining, that’s still higher than today’s rate - although it assumes some modest Fed tightening at some point.</p>\n<p>And of course, the lower the growth rate, the lower the real rate needs to be to rein in debt loads. Morgan Stanley said that if adverse demographics and productivity depressed real GDP growth more than it thought then real rates as low as today’s may have to be sustained to stop debts rising.</p>\n<p>But it also said most episodes of successful debt reduction had generally been accompanied by only moderate but sustained inflation - a median of 2.9% for those successful in cutting debts. Contrary to popular perceptions, hyperinflation ensued only in a very small number of episodes.</p>\n<p>“Our analysis shows that the real rate environment has been key in determining the path of public debt substantially more so than actual fiscal spending.”</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'Boring '20s'? - a decade of zero real rates :Mike Dolan</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'Boring '20s'? - a decade of zero real rates :Mike Dolan\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-16 13:23</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)</p>\n<p>LONDON, July 16 (Reuters) - The U.S. government can once again borrow at a deeply negative ‘real’ rate of minus 1.0% for 10 years - and some economists insist there’s a powerful historical case for expecting that rate to stay near zero or below for the rest of the decade.</p>\n<p>It’s been fashionable in markets of late to think of another “Roaring ‘20s” emerging over the next decade. Pandemic-driven megatrends, fractious politics, gigantic government debt piles and the return of inflation could all conspire to electrify or unnerve markets over the years ahead - or so the story goes.</p>\n<p>But after a restive first quarter of 2021, global bond markets - still under the spell of heavy central bank buying - appear to be pricing in a very different scenario ahead.</p>\n<p>Even after this week’s June readout of the highest annual gain in U.S. core consumer prices in 30 years - an inflation rate of some 4.5% excluding food and energy prices - the yield on the Treasury’s 10-year inflation-protected bond skidded back below -1.0% for the first time in five months.</p>\n<p>Aside from that brief moment in February, these rates have never been lower - at least not in the history of these securities. And all equivalent rates in the G4 major economies are also below zero, with Germany and Britain even lower than those in the United States.</p>\n<p>Investors pore over everything from ‘peak inflation’ to ‘peak growth’ and even ‘peak stimulus’ for clues as to why bond yields continue to defy forecasts and why they have taken the surge in inflation and government debt levels in their stride.</p>\n<p>U.S. government debt will top 125% of gross domestic product this year and next - its highest since World War Two - and up almost 20 percentage points since before the pandemic. Debt/GDP in G4 economies overall has risen by a similar amount to 125%.</p>\n<p>While many put the seeming nonchalance down to persistent central bank intervention or technical quirks, some also point out to the risk of a weakening ‘fiscal impulse’ over the next two years that mathematically drags on growth rates.</p>\n<p>Manulife Investment Management economist Frances Donald thinks this should be seen as a “fiscal cliff” and the drop in U.S. spending - viewed as a share of resulting falling budget deficit - marks the steepest such cliff since the 1940s.</p>\n<p><b>HIGH PRESSURE</b></p>\n<p>However, G7 leaders pledged last month not to make the mistakes of the last crisis by reducing government spending too soon and reverting to fiscal austerity too early.</p>\n<p>The White House and congressional Democrats at least seem intent on keeping that “high pressure economy” until all sections of society take part. Leading Democrats this week agreed to table another $3.5 trillion investment plan on top of the proposed $600 billion of infrastructure spending already in the pipeline.</p>\n<p>And yet the bond market barely flickered at the prospect.</p>\n<p>Is this just the Federal Reserve’s hand? Is Fed buying really so dominant and can it remain so for years?</p>\n<p>Fed chief Jerome Powell was this week pointedly reluctant to give Congress any hard timeline for a reduction in bond buying and continued to characterize inflation spikes as mostly temporary base effects and bottlenecks from pandemic lockdowns.</p>\n<p>But if the Fed is right about inflation over time and the pursuit of a high pressure economy is now G7 consensus due to equality and climate priorities, history shows bond yields could be down here for a long time to come yet.</p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley economists published a study this week looking at 100 years of data on how countries managed debt blowouts - defined as periods when debt/GDP ratios jumped 20 percentage points in five years.</p>\n<p>They concluded that countries which managed to rein in those debt levels over the subsequent decade had kept looser monetary and fiscal policies longer than those who failed to stop their debt rising. Low debt servicing costs - absent an inflation problem - and growth were shown to be the best ways to keep debts sustainable.</p>\n<p>Studying all outcomes, they reckoned the most successful strategy was to keep real interest rates two percentage points below real GDP growth rates for 10 years and ‘grow out’ of the debt rather than slashing spending. Fiscal consolidation, by contrast, had played a lesser role in the reversal of public debt build-ups over the century, it said.</p>\n<p>On that basis the investment bank saw U.S. real rates held between -0.5% and +0.5% for the next decade - about 2 points below their expected real GDP growth rate.</p>\n<p>While flatlining, that’s still higher than today’s rate - although it assumes some modest Fed tightening at some point.</p>\n<p>And of course, the lower the growth rate, the lower the real rate needs to be to rein in debt loads. Morgan Stanley said that if adverse demographics and productivity depressed real GDP growth more than it thought then real rates as low as today’s may have to be sustained to stop debts rising.</p>\n<p>But it also said most episodes of successful debt reduction had generally been accompanied by only moderate but sustained inflation - a median of 2.9% for those successful in cutting debts. Contrary to popular perceptions, hyperinflation ensued only in a very small number of episodes.</p>\n<p>“Our analysis shows that the real rate environment has been key in determining the path of public debt substantially more so than actual fiscal spending.”</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124361019","content_text":"(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)\nLONDON, July 16 (Reuters) - The U.S. government can once again borrow at a deeply negative ‘real’ rate of minus 1.0% for 10 years - and some economists insist there’s a powerful historical case for expecting that rate to stay near zero or below for the rest of the decade.\nIt’s been fashionable in markets of late to think of another “Roaring ‘20s” emerging over the next decade. Pandemic-driven megatrends, fractious politics, gigantic government debt piles and the return of inflation could all conspire to electrify or unnerve markets over the years ahead - or so the story goes.\nBut after a restive first quarter of 2021, global bond markets - still under the spell of heavy central bank buying - appear to be pricing in a very different scenario ahead.\nEven after this week’s June readout of the highest annual gain in U.S. core consumer prices in 30 years - an inflation rate of some 4.5% excluding food and energy prices - the yield on the Treasury’s 10-year inflation-protected bond skidded back below -1.0% for the first time in five months.\nAside from that brief moment in February, these rates have never been lower - at least not in the history of these securities. And all equivalent rates in the G4 major economies are also below zero, with Germany and Britain even lower than those in the United States.\nInvestors pore over everything from ‘peak inflation’ to ‘peak growth’ and even ‘peak stimulus’ for clues as to why bond yields continue to defy forecasts and why they have taken the surge in inflation and government debt levels in their stride.\nU.S. government debt will top 125% of gross domestic product this year and next - its highest since World War Two - and up almost 20 percentage points since before the pandemic. Debt/GDP in G4 economies overall has risen by a similar amount to 125%.\nWhile many put the seeming nonchalance down to persistent central bank intervention or technical quirks, some also point out to the risk of a weakening ‘fiscal impulse’ over the next two years that mathematically drags on growth rates.\nManulife Investment Management economist Frances Donald thinks this should be seen as a “fiscal cliff” and the drop in U.S. spending - viewed as a share of resulting falling budget deficit - marks the steepest such cliff since the 1940s.\nHIGH PRESSURE\nHowever, G7 leaders pledged last month not to make the mistakes of the last crisis by reducing government spending too soon and reverting to fiscal austerity too early.\nThe White House and congressional Democrats at least seem intent on keeping that “high pressure economy” until all sections of society take part. Leading Democrats this week agreed to table another $3.5 trillion investment plan on top of the proposed $600 billion of infrastructure spending already in the pipeline.\nAnd yet the bond market barely flickered at the prospect.\nIs this just the Federal Reserve’s hand? Is Fed buying really so dominant and can it remain so for years?\nFed chief Jerome Powell was this week pointedly reluctant to give Congress any hard timeline for a reduction in bond buying and continued to characterize inflation spikes as mostly temporary base effects and bottlenecks from pandemic lockdowns.\nBut if the Fed is right about inflation over time and the pursuit of a high pressure economy is now G7 consensus due to equality and climate priorities, history shows bond yields could be down here for a long time to come yet.\nMorgan Stanley economists published a study this week looking at 100 years of data on how countries managed debt blowouts - defined as periods when debt/GDP ratios jumped 20 percentage points in five years.\nThey concluded that countries which managed to rein in those debt levels over the subsequent decade had kept looser monetary and fiscal policies longer than those who failed to stop their debt rising. Low debt servicing costs - absent an inflation problem - and growth were shown to be the best ways to keep debts sustainable.\nStudying all outcomes, they reckoned the most successful strategy was to keep real interest rates two percentage points below real GDP growth rates for 10 years and ‘grow out’ of the debt rather than slashing spending. Fiscal consolidation, by contrast, had played a lesser role in the reversal of public debt build-ups over the century, it said.\nOn that basis the investment bank saw U.S. real rates held between -0.5% and +0.5% for the next decade - about 2 points below their expected real GDP growth rate.\nWhile flatlining, that’s still higher than today’s rate - although it assumes some modest Fed tightening at some point.\nAnd of course, the lower the growth rate, the lower the real rate needs to be to rein in debt loads. Morgan Stanley said that if adverse demographics and productivity depressed real GDP growth more than it thought then real rates as low as today’s may have to be sustained to stop debts rising.\nBut it also said most episodes of successful debt reduction had generally been accompanied by only moderate but sustained inflation - a median of 2.9% for those successful in cutting debts. Contrary to popular perceptions, hyperinflation ensued only in a very small number of episodes.\n“Our analysis shows that the real rate environment has been key in determining the path of public debt substantially more so than actual fiscal spending.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179442466,"gmtCreate":1626573901755,"gmtModify":1703761864627,"author":{"id":"4089440680592730","authorId":"4089440680592730","name":"Bluefaerie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a14cce34aa8b490facc68d4c62d3704","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089440680592730","idStr":"4089440680592730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woww","listText":"Woww","text":"Woww","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/179442466","repostId":"1123523681","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":801,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955859460,"gmtCreate":1675349345050,"gmtModify":1676538995516,"author":{"id":"4089440680592730","authorId":"4089440680592730","name":"Bluefaerie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a14cce34aa8b490facc68d4c62d3704","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089440680592730","idStr":"4089440680592730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955859460","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1560,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}