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2022-07-10

$实大控股(5LE.SI)$💪💪😅

2022-05-11

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@资本邦:恆生醫療ETF漲幅5.97%，位居恆生系列產品第一

2022-04-18

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2022-01-24

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2022-01-09

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Airbus Allegedly Exceeds 2021 Delivery Targets, Analysts Bullish on This Year

2021-08-20

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The running station B is going to fall into the mortal world?

2021-08-20

$Apple(AAPL)$fly fly fly

2021-08-17

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Modern Dental once rose more than 30%, expecting net profit to turn into profit in the first half of the year

2021-08-16

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Market pressure mounts as everyone stares at Jackson Hole Global Central Banks Annual Meeting

2021-08-16

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Ren Zeping: Global House Price Trends in 2021

2021-08-14

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[Change] The decline of popular Chinese stocks expanded, and shells fell more than 9%

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08:22","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Airbus Allegedly Exceeds 2021 Delivery Targets, Analysts Bullish on This Year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2201217750","media":"新浪财经","summary":"　　此前，有报道称，空客超额完成了其2021年全年交付600架飞机的目标，继续领先于主要竞争对手波音公司。　　空客将在下周一市场收盘后公布2021年订单和交付的情况，波音则将在下周二披露相关数据。由于空客有信心超额完成2021年的交付目标，该公司已将重点转向2022年的窄体客机生产率和交付量。　　分析师表示，尽管空客尚未给出2022年的交付展望，但预计将大大高于2021年。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Financial Associated Press (Shanghai, Editor Xia Junxiong) News According to media reports quoting industry sources, Airbus delivered at least 605 aircraft in 2021, and this number may rise to 611 after the final audit results are released.</p><p>It follows reports that Airbus exceeded its full-year 2021 delivery target of 600 aircraft to continue ahead of key rivals<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Corp.</p><p>During COVID, aircraft deliveries are key to generating cash. It is understood that in times of crisis, through a number of workarounds, some airlines were allowed to delay the inclusion of new aircraft in the load sheet, thus partially ensuring delivery, but such agreements must be reviewed by auditors.</p><p>Airbus will announce its 2021 orders and deliveries after the market closes next Monday, while Boeing will disclose relevant data next Tuesday.</p><p>Right now, the aviation industry is trying to recalibrate supply chains weakened by the pandemic. As Airbus is confident it will exceed its 2021 delivery targets, the company has shifted its focus to narrowbody airliner productivity and deliveries in 2022.</p><p>Some planes scheduled for delivery in 2022 are expected to be delayed by months as some components are pressured by logistics bottlenecks and chip shortages, industry insiders said. Sources say deliveries of some aircraft are even at risk of being delayed until 2023.</p><p>Although Airbus has not yet given a delivery outlook for 2022, it is expected to be significantly higher than 2021, analysts said.</p><p>Last October, Airbus raised its production target for the A320 series of narrow-body aircraft to 65 aircraft per month until summer 2023. It is worth mentioning that Airbus once hoped to increase its monthly production to 75 aircraft, but due to its cooperation with France<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0IU8.UK\">Safran</a>Group and other engine manufacturers disagreed and gave up.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Airbus Allegedly Exceeds 2021 Delivery Targets, Analysts Bullish on This Year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAirbus Allegedly Exceeds 2021 Delivery Targets, Analysts Bullish on This Year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-08 08:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Financial Associated Press (Shanghai, Editor Xia Junxiong) News According to media reports quoting industry sources, Airbus delivered at least 605 aircraft in 2021, and this number may rise to 611 after the final audit results are released.</p><p>It follows reports that Airbus exceeded its full-year 2021 delivery target of 600 aircraft to continue ahead of key rivals<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Corp.</p><p>During COVID, aircraft deliveries are key to generating cash. It is understood that in times of crisis, through a number of workarounds, some airlines were allowed to delay the inclusion of new aircraft in the load sheet, thus partially ensuring delivery, but such agreements must be reviewed by auditors.</p><p>Airbus will announce its 2021 orders and deliveries after the market closes next Monday, while Boeing will disclose relevant data next Tuesday.</p><p>Right now, the aviation industry is trying to recalibrate supply chains weakened by the pandemic. As Airbus is confident it will exceed its 2021 delivery targets, the company has shifted its focus to narrowbody airliner productivity and deliveries in 2022.</p><p>Some planes scheduled for delivery in 2022 are expected to be delayed by months as some components are pressured by logistics bottlenecks and chip shortages, industry insiders said. Sources say deliveries of some aircraft are even at risk of being delayed until 2023.</p><p>Although Airbus has not yet given a delivery outlook for 2022, it is expected to be significantly higher than 2021, analysts said.</p><p>Last October, Airbus raised its production target for the A320 series of narrow-body aircraft to 65 aircraft per month until summer 2023. It is worth mentioning that Airbus once hoped to increase its monthly production to 75 aircraft, but due to its cooperation with France<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0IU8.UK\">Safran</a>Group and other engine manufacturers disagreed and gave up.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-01-08/doc-ikyakumx8965029.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80e4ab3e53452f4e5554d2f59e6f6d9b","relate_stocks":{"EADSY":"空中客车集团"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-01-08/doc-ikyakumx8965029.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2201217750","content_text":"财联社（上海，编辑 夏军雄）讯，据媒体援引业内人士消息报道，空中客车公司在2021年交付了至少605架飞机，而在最终审计的结果出炉后，这一数字可能会升至611架。此前，有报道称，空客超额完成了其2021年全年交付600架飞机的目标，继续领先于主要竞争对手波音公司。在新冠疫情期间，飞机交付量是产生现金的关键。据悉，在危机时期，通过一些变通办法，一些航空公司被允许推迟将新飞机计入资产负载表，从而部分确保了交付，但此类协议必须经过审计机构的审核。空客将在下周一市场收盘后公布2021年订单和交付的情况，波音则将在下周二披露相关数据。眼下，航空业正试图重新调整被疫情削弱的供应链。由于空客有信心超额完成2021年的交付目标，该公司已将重点转向2022年的窄体客机生产率和交付量。业内人士称，由于部分零部件受到物流瓶颈和芯片短缺的压力，一些原定于2022年交付的飞机预计要推迟几个月。有消息称，一些飞机的交付时间甚至有推迟到2023年的风险。分析师表示，尽管空客尚未给出2022年的交付展望，但预计将大大高于2021年。去年10月，空客将其A320 系列窄体机生产目标上调至2023年夏季之前每月65架。值得一提的是，空客一度希望将月产量提高至75架，但因与法国赛峰集团等发动机制造商存在分歧而作罢。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EADSY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4833,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838405473,"gmtCreate":1629422455092,"gmtModify":1676530034644,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/838405473","repostId":"2160799134","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2160799134","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1629456490,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2160799134?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-20 18:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The running station B is going to fall into the mortal world?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2160799134","media":"海豚投研","summary":"北京时间8月19日港股盘后，哔哩哔哩发布了2021年二季度财报。\n本季B站实现净营收45亿元人民币，同比增长72%，优于市场一致预期的43亿元(彭博)，一如既往的超前期指引(42.5-43.5亿元)。","content":"<p>After the Hong Kong stock market closed on August 19th, Beijing time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Released its second quarter 2021 earnings report.</p><p>This quarter, Station B achieved a net revenue of 4.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72%, which was better than the consensus market expectation of 4.3 billion yuan (Bloomberg), and as always, exceeded the previous guidance (4.25-4.35 billion yuan).</p><p>Looking forward to the third quarter, the management gave a revenue guidance of 5.1 billion yuan to 5.2 billion yuan, with an implied growth rate of about 60%, which is not particularly optimistic. At present, the market's consensus expectation of revenue in the third quarter is 5.17 billion yuan, which falls within the guidance range. In the past, the lower limit of guidance will exceed market expectations. Obviously, this time the third quarter guidance of Station B is slightly conservative.</p><p>The adjusted net loss in the second quarter was 857 million yuan, which was better than the market expectation of 1.084 billion yuan. However, if we look at the operating loss of the main business, the loss of 1.52 billion corresponds to a loss rate of 34%, while the market unanimously expects it to be 28% (the expectations of some head banks have been adjusted, which is similar to the actual loss rate). After dismantling the data, the main expected difference is in operating expenses. (Specific reasons are analyzed below)</p><p>In addition, in other key operating indicators, a quick overview of the difference between the performance and market expectations in the second quarter:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d433a44edd005775f09cd4c0c615873c\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Let's start with the conclusion:</p><p>(1) On the whole, although the revenue end and user data of Station B in the second quarter obviously beat the company's guidance and market expectations.</p><p>However, at the end of July, the company and securities firms made some forward-looking guidance on the specific performance in the second quarter (most of the market thought that forward-looking was not positive, which also triggered a round of stock price decline), and then the market's expectations have been adjusted for some time according to this forward-looking.</p><p>(2) However, judging from the final delivery results, the advertising revenue performance is obviously quite excellent, doubling year-on-year.</p><p>The game collapsed severely. Although the popular new tour was released as scheduled, the overall running water declined instead of increasing. Self-developed games are generally known in Station B, and the pace of foreign investment in game studios did not stop in the second quarter.</p><p>(3) The growth of the user market is ok, but the old problem still shows no signs of improvement: DAU of daily users can't keep up with the growth rate of MAU, which can be said to reflect the decline of overall user stickiness. In the third quarter, we faced a number of regulatory pressures (summer clearing action, minor protection, live broadcast supervision, etc.), and it is expected that user growth may not be as good as the previous summer peak season.</p><p>But Mr. Dolphin believes that the value of B is by no means more than that in the long run. Although there is the initial intention of not doing patch advertising, the current fireworks platform belongs to the nature of private advertising, and the share of Up owners accounts for the absolute majority, and it eats a lot of the potential commercial value that originally belonged to Station B in disguise. In addition, the current user activity (DAU) of Station B and the effect of public domain advertising can't be simply benchmarked with other platforms such as short videos.</p><p>As the old saying goes, the most valuable thing about Station B is the Z-era users who are growing Up and becoming the main force of social consumption on the platform, including Up owners. This part of users has a very high recognition of the value of Station B. Although the high-frequency activity is not as good as other platforms (sticking to users by algorithms), users will regard Station B as a community rather than a tool platform for receiving information.</p><p>In addition, the proportion of Up owners among Bilibili's users has been increasing, reflecting that in addition to a long-term healthy community ecology, more and more UGC content and participants make Bilibili's live broadcast and other reward value-added services more advantageous than the traditional live show broadcast.</p><p>From the perspective of the stock price trend, the current Bilibili has fallen below a reasonable valuation range. Dolphin Jun believes that the current stock price implies a too pessimistic growth expectation for Bilibili in the future. In the short term, the fluctuation of stock price is more affected by the regulatory environment, such as the supervision of cultural content in special years, the protection of minors, and the summer clearing sports.</p><p>In addition, the pressure of video copyright supervision has also had a certain impact on Station B, especially on user growth and user stickiness. It is expected that the performance of the summer peak season in the third quarter of this year will be weaker than that in previous years. Combined with the slightly conservative guidance of the company's management, it may still fluctuate in the short term. Like other pan-entertainment platforms, they can actively intervene after the regulatory environment eases in 1-2 quarters.</p><p>Detailed interpretation of the data of this financial report</p><p>1. Overall performance: Beat guidance and expectations, the third quarter guidance is average</p><p>(1) Income end</p><p>In the second quarter, Bilibili achieved net revenue of 4.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72%, better than the market consensus estimate of 4.3 billion yuan (Bloomberg), and beat the upper limit of management guidance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fafffeeda8d6558a844d6a1b948b3d73\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Among different businesses, the growth rate of advertising revenue continued to be bright. Although new tours with high popularity were released, they still performed poorly, their contribution dropped rapidly year-on-year, and live broadcast and value-added services accelerated.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eeda3cb86c264fb48624bfdedb9a290\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>(2) Profit end</p><p>In the second quarter, the company's gross profit margin decreased by 2ppt quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to the increase of new tour share, content investment (LPL global finals, live broadcast rights of e-sports regular season) and the increase of live broadcast share (the share for anchors has increased to 80%-90%). In addition, since the share of fireworks is mainly given to Up owners, the advertising gross profit margin of Station B will be about 50%, which will be significantly lower than that of other platforms of 70-80%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f887b456f776639212b683aff9b924f5\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Operating loss (GAAP) was RMB1,521 million, exceeding market expectations of RMB1,188 million, mainly due to the increase in marketing expense ratio. In the second quarter, many new tours were released, and the marketing and promotion expenditure was large, with an increase of 6ppt from the previous month. On top of that, employee compensation and equity incentives were still increasing year-over-year during the quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00700190b7ba758d9a73747e491e8e3d\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>2. User scale: not light in the off-season, but there may be pressure on growth in the next third quarter under multi-supervision</p><p>In the second quarter, the number of users increased by 13.8 million compared with the previous quarter, reaching 237 million, which still increased by 38% under last year's high base, higher than the market expectation of 30%.</p><p>Considering the long-term guidance of 400 million users in 2023 previously put forward by Ruidi, the growth rate will be 20% off the previous year, and the growth rate of users this year will exceed 30%, otherwise it will not be able to achieve the goal of breaking 400 million by the end of 2023. (If the reduction is faster, it will put more pressure on growth this year)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc35917db286aafaf7193beaf990f689\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Regarding user stickiness, old questions persist, and while there are seasonal reasons, user stickiness (DAU/MAU) is at a two-year low. The activity of the platform will affect the future realization value space, especially for advertisers, who prefer platforms with high DAU or higher user stickiness.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5dd2285fa12caf9aaf03b668066ab5\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>However, considering that the length of the video itself will have a certain impact on the activity of the platform, the longer the video, the relatively average the activity. From Questmobile's 30-day retention on different video apps. Basically follow the rule of short video> medium video> long video. The company previously proposed that it is still in the stage of expanding the volume and scale, and the long-term guiding target for this indicator is 30%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebbdf10234956d4d225ac1921ef87260\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It is worth mentioning that in the second quarter, Station b made two prominent function page revisions for user stickiness. It is expected that user stickiness will improve to some extent in the third quarter:</p><p>a. One is the vertical screen Mode \"Story Mode\". Similar to short videos, you can directly swipe up and down to switch videos. The main purpose is to increase the user's time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7c6b06f790f5a624b92688c945fc0b0\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>b. The other is a major revision of the function just launched in the summer, highlighting the video creation function to guide more users to convert into Up owners.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb424a1d22c31c3acb454618b7158bf9\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c287fb8a77a7fbab67aa803197b88623\" tg-width=\"612\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>In terms of paying users, this quarter, games, big members and virtual items (such as coins, live gifts, etc.) rewarded paying users due to seasonality. The overall number of paying users was 20.9 million, and the payment penetration rate was basically the same as the previous month, but the downward trend of single-user payment level is still accelerating.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd0b917dd35f1253ab8521cd3e647405\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3fe17f130feaa73981a00fa6fc15c4e\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>3. Advertising business: The prosperity remains unabated and commercialization is steadily advancing</p><p>In the second quarter, the advertising revenue of Station B reached 1.05 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 201%, which greatly exceeded the expectations of the market and Dolphin Jun (150%). With the economic recovery, advertising recovery and the increasingly recognized brand influence of Bilibili will help to continue to promote the advertising boom of Bilibili.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ca8a9f6b713d9dcc736ab2e96a05fa1\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>At present, the share of Station B, a fireworks platform, is only about 6%, and the revenue is confirmed according to the total transaction amount, thus lowering the gross profit margin of the overall advertising.</p><p>Judging from the unique platform tonality of Station B, the future contribution of Fireworks Platform will also be significantly improved. However, for Station B, the contribution of fireworks platform to the overall performance may not be the core consideration of Station B in the short term, but more regards fireworks as a major empowerment tool to maintain the main ecology of Up.</p><p>After all, on Station B, the interaction between Up owners and users is high-frequency, and there are even some emotional connections. It can be regarded as a private domain relationship. Therefore, Up owner is also the core asset of Station B.</p><p>Dolphin guessed that in addition to the need to supplement more content supply, considering the strategic significance of fireworks, this is also the reason why Station b is constantly expanding the scale of Up master.</p><p>4. Games: The self-developed mobile games of Station B are still difficult to play</p><p>In the second quarter, the game revenue of Station B dropped by 1% year-on-year, which can be said to be very ugly compared with its peers (the domestic mobile game market grew by 13% in the second quarter). Although the popular new tours \"Kang Gong Riding Crown Sword\", \"Mobile War Princess\" and \"Sword God Domain\", which the market has high hopes for, have been released in the second quarter, the running water performance is very broken except \"Kang Gong\", which will be able to watch.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b34589edda01d2b4762c3bbb863a908c\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>From third-party data Sensor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWR.AU\">Tower</a>In the second quarter, it was mainly supported by the old tour of the agent and the flowing water of Kangong, while the popularity of Mobile War Princess and Sword God Domain declined too fast. (The black line is the running water of Genshin Impact, and the yellow line is the running water of Kangong)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76120ec81bbd370af36846abdce95ab9\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Perhaps it knows its own ability. On the basis of investing in seven game companies in the first quarter, Station B increased its investment in game projects in the second quarter, with six new investments.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06dfa2b855bb47a37223f2cd28caa0a9\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data Source: IT Orange</p><p>5. Value-added services: excellent performance, it is expected that video coin sharing and live broadcast popularity will bring</p><p>In the second quarter, the value-added business actually performed well, especially in the industry environment of the overall show, with a revenue of 1.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98%, slightly lower than the expectation of the big bank.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17b705a002cb773314ece3532fc873c7\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>The live broadcast and value-added services of Station B include big members, video coin sharing, live reward sharing, etc. From the perspective of the scale of paid users, considering the poor performance of mobile games in the second quarter, and the new regulatory policy faced by Japanese comics in April (first trial and then broadcast), it is expected that it will also have an impact on the income of big members. Therefore, these two parts of income are excluded. Dolphin Jun speculates that the rapid growth of new paid users, overall live broadcast and value-added services should be mainly brought about by the increase of coin sharing and the increase of live broadcast popularity.</p><p>This is different from the traditional live broadcast of the show. At present, the live broadcast of Station B is still in the growth stage of high-speed penetration.</p><p>6. Other businesses such as e-commerce: although the proportion is small, the momentum is stronger</p><p>In the second quarter, e-commerce continued to nearly double its high growth. However, considering that this piece of income (member purchase) is mainly driven by the consumption of core animation users, it currently accounts for a relatively small 13%. However, with the continuous growth of the two-dimensional group among users in the Z era, the future prospects should not be overestimated. Therefore, Dolphin Jun suggested that investors should pay moderate attention to this business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18a80db984627337ad7a5bca90facc7f\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p>","source":"lsy1607051923659","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The running station B is going to fall into the mortal world?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe running station B is going to fall into the mortal world?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">海豚投研</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-20 18:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After the Hong Kong stock market closed on August 19th, Beijing time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Released its second quarter 2021 earnings report.</p><p>This quarter, Station B achieved a net revenue of 4.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72%, which was better than the consensus market expectation of 4.3 billion yuan (Bloomberg), and as always, exceeded the previous guidance (4.25-4.35 billion yuan).</p><p>Looking forward to the third quarter, the management gave a revenue guidance of 5.1 billion yuan to 5.2 billion yuan, with an implied growth rate of about 60%, which is not particularly optimistic. At present, the market's consensus expectation of revenue in the third quarter is 5.17 billion yuan, which falls within the guidance range. In the past, the lower limit of guidance will exceed market expectations. Obviously, this time the third quarter guidance of Station B is slightly conservative.</p><p>The adjusted net loss in the second quarter was 857 million yuan, which was better than the market expectation of 1.084 billion yuan. However, if we look at the operating loss of the main business, the loss of 1.52 billion corresponds to a loss rate of 34%, while the market unanimously expects it to be 28% (the expectations of some head banks have been adjusted, which is similar to the actual loss rate). After dismantling the data, the main expected difference is in operating expenses. (Specific reasons are analyzed below)</p><p>In addition, in other key operating indicators, a quick overview of the difference between the performance and market expectations in the second quarter:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d433a44edd005775f09cd4c0c615873c\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Let's start with the conclusion:</p><p>(1) On the whole, although the revenue end and user data of Station B in the second quarter obviously beat the company's guidance and market expectations.</p><p>However, at the end of July, the company and securities firms made some forward-looking guidance on the specific performance in the second quarter (most of the market thought that forward-looking was not positive, which also triggered a round of stock price decline), and then the market's expectations have been adjusted for some time according to this forward-looking.</p><p>(2) However, judging from the final delivery results, the advertising revenue performance is obviously quite excellent, doubling year-on-year.</p><p>The game collapsed severely. Although the popular new tour was released as scheduled, the overall running water declined instead of increasing. Self-developed games are generally known in Station B, and the pace of foreign investment in game studios did not stop in the second quarter.</p><p>(3) The growth of the user market is ok, but the old problem still shows no signs of improvement: DAU of daily users can't keep up with the growth rate of MAU, which can be said to reflect the decline of overall user stickiness. In the third quarter, we faced a number of regulatory pressures (summer clearing action, minor protection, live broadcast supervision, etc.), and it is expected that user growth may not be as good as the previous summer peak season.</p><p>But Mr. Dolphin believes that the value of B is by no means more than that in the long run. Although there is the initial intention of not doing patch advertising, the current fireworks platform belongs to the nature of private advertising, and the share of Up owners accounts for the absolute majority, and it eats a lot of the potential commercial value that originally belonged to Station B in disguise. In addition, the current user activity (DAU) of Station B and the effect of public domain advertising can't be simply benchmarked with other platforms such as short videos.</p><p>As the old saying goes, the most valuable thing about Station B is the Z-era users who are growing Up and becoming the main force of social consumption on the platform, including Up owners. This part of users has a very high recognition of the value of Station B. Although the high-frequency activity is not as good as other platforms (sticking to users by algorithms), users will regard Station B as a community rather than a tool platform for receiving information.</p><p>In addition, the proportion of Up owners among Bilibili's users has been increasing, reflecting that in addition to a long-term healthy community ecology, more and more UGC content and participants make Bilibili's live broadcast and other reward value-added services more advantageous than the traditional live show broadcast.</p><p>From the perspective of the stock price trend, the current Bilibili has fallen below a reasonable valuation range. Dolphin Jun believes that the current stock price implies a too pessimistic growth expectation for Bilibili in the future. In the short term, the fluctuation of stock price is more affected by the regulatory environment, such as the supervision of cultural content in special years, the protection of minors, and the summer clearing sports.</p><p>In addition, the pressure of video copyright supervision has also had a certain impact on Station B, especially on user growth and user stickiness. It is expected that the performance of the summer peak season in the third quarter of this year will be weaker than that in previous years. Combined with the slightly conservative guidance of the company's management, it may still fluctuate in the short term. Like other pan-entertainment platforms, they can actively intervene after the regulatory environment eases in 1-2 quarters.</p><p>Detailed interpretation of the data of this financial report</p><p>1. Overall performance: Beat guidance and expectations, the third quarter guidance is average</p><p>(1) Income end</p><p>In the second quarter, Bilibili achieved net revenue of 4.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72%, better than the market consensus estimate of 4.3 billion yuan (Bloomberg), and beat the upper limit of management guidance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fafffeeda8d6558a844d6a1b948b3d73\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Among different businesses, the growth rate of advertising revenue continued to be bright. Although new tours with high popularity were released, they still performed poorly, their contribution dropped rapidly year-on-year, and live broadcast and value-added services accelerated.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eeda3cb86c264fb48624bfdedb9a290\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>(2) Profit end</p><p>In the second quarter, the company's gross profit margin decreased by 2ppt quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to the increase of new tour share, content investment (LPL global finals, live broadcast rights of e-sports regular season) and the increase of live broadcast share (the share for anchors has increased to 80%-90%). In addition, since the share of fireworks is mainly given to Up owners, the advertising gross profit margin of Station B will be about 50%, which will be significantly lower than that of other platforms of 70-80%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f887b456f776639212b683aff9b924f5\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Operating loss (GAAP) was RMB1,521 million, exceeding market expectations of RMB1,188 million, mainly due to the increase in marketing expense ratio. In the second quarter, many new tours were released, and the marketing and promotion expenditure was large, with an increase of 6ppt from the previous month. On top of that, employee compensation and equity incentives were still increasing year-over-year during the quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00700190b7ba758d9a73747e491e8e3d\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>2. User scale: not light in the off-season, but there may be pressure on growth in the next third quarter under multi-supervision</p><p>In the second quarter, the number of users increased by 13.8 million compared with the previous quarter, reaching 237 million, which still increased by 38% under last year's high base, higher than the market expectation of 30%.</p><p>Considering the long-term guidance of 400 million users in 2023 previously put forward by Ruidi, the growth rate will be 20% off the previous year, and the growth rate of users this year will exceed 30%, otherwise it will not be able to achieve the goal of breaking 400 million by the end of 2023. (If the reduction is faster, it will put more pressure on growth this year)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc35917db286aafaf7193beaf990f689\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Regarding user stickiness, old questions persist, and while there are seasonal reasons, user stickiness (DAU/MAU) is at a two-year low. The activity of the platform will affect the future realization value space, especially for advertisers, who prefer platforms with high DAU or higher user stickiness.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5dd2285fa12caf9aaf03b668066ab5\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>However, considering that the length of the video itself will have a certain impact on the activity of the platform, the longer the video, the relatively average the activity. From Questmobile's 30-day retention on different video apps. Basically follow the rule of short video> medium video> long video. The company previously proposed that it is still in the stage of expanding the volume and scale, and the long-term guiding target for this indicator is 30%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebbdf10234956d4d225ac1921ef87260\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It is worth mentioning that in the second quarter, Station b made two prominent function page revisions for user stickiness. It is expected that user stickiness will improve to some extent in the third quarter:</p><p>a. One is the vertical screen Mode \"Story Mode\". Similar to short videos, you can directly swipe up and down to switch videos. The main purpose is to increase the user's time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7c6b06f790f5a624b92688c945fc0b0\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>b. The other is a major revision of the function just launched in the summer, highlighting the video creation function to guide more users to convert into Up owners.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb424a1d22c31c3acb454618b7158bf9\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c287fb8a77a7fbab67aa803197b88623\" tg-width=\"612\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>In terms of paying users, this quarter, games, big members and virtual items (such as coins, live gifts, etc.) rewarded paying users due to seasonality. The overall number of paying users was 20.9 million, and the payment penetration rate was basically the same as the previous month, but the downward trend of single-user payment level is still accelerating.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd0b917dd35f1253ab8521cd3e647405\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3fe17f130feaa73981a00fa6fc15c4e\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>3. Advertising business: The prosperity remains unabated and commercialization is steadily advancing</p><p>In the second quarter, the advertising revenue of Station B reached 1.05 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 201%, which greatly exceeded the expectations of the market and Dolphin Jun (150%). With the economic recovery, advertising recovery and the increasingly recognized brand influence of Bilibili will help to continue to promote the advertising boom of Bilibili.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ca8a9f6b713d9dcc736ab2e96a05fa1\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>At present, the share of Station B, a fireworks platform, is only about 6%, and the revenue is confirmed according to the total transaction amount, thus lowering the gross profit margin of the overall advertising.</p><p>Judging from the unique platform tonality of Station B, the future contribution of Fireworks Platform will also be significantly improved. However, for Station B, the contribution of fireworks platform to the overall performance may not be the core consideration of Station B in the short term, but more regards fireworks as a major empowerment tool to maintain the main ecology of Up.</p><p>After all, on Station B, the interaction between Up owners and users is high-frequency, and there are even some emotional connections. It can be regarded as a private domain relationship. Therefore, Up owner is also the core asset of Station B.</p><p>Dolphin guessed that in addition to the need to supplement more content supply, considering the strategic significance of fireworks, this is also the reason why Station b is constantly expanding the scale of Up master.</p><p>4. Games: The self-developed mobile games of Station B are still difficult to play</p><p>In the second quarter, the game revenue of Station B dropped by 1% year-on-year, which can be said to be very ugly compared with its peers (the domestic mobile game market grew by 13% in the second quarter). Although the popular new tours \"Kang Gong Riding Crown Sword\", \"Mobile War Princess\" and \"Sword God Domain\", which the market has high hopes for, have been released in the second quarter, the running water performance is very broken except \"Kang Gong\", which will be able to watch.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b34589edda01d2b4762c3bbb863a908c\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>From third-party data Sensor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWR.AU\">Tower</a>In the second quarter, it was mainly supported by the old tour of the agent and the flowing water of Kangong, while the popularity of Mobile War Princess and Sword God Domain declined too fast. (The black line is the running water of Genshin Impact, and the yellow line is the running water of Kangong)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76120ec81bbd370af36846abdce95ab9\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Perhaps it knows its own ability. On the basis of investing in seven game companies in the first quarter, Station B increased its investment in game projects in the second quarter, with six new investments.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06dfa2b855bb47a37223f2cd28caa0a9\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data Source: IT Orange</p><p>5. Value-added services: excellent performance, it is expected that video coin sharing and live broadcast popularity will bring</p><p>In the second quarter, the value-added business actually performed well, especially in the industry environment of the overall show, with a revenue of 1.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98%, slightly lower than the expectation of the big bank.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17b705a002cb773314ece3532fc873c7\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>The live broadcast and value-added services of Station B include big members, video coin sharing, live reward sharing, etc. From the perspective of the scale of paid users, considering the poor performance of mobile games in the second quarter, and the new regulatory policy faced by Japanese comics in April (first trial and then broadcast), it is expected that it will also have an impact on the income of big members. Therefore, these two parts of income are excluded. Dolphin Jun speculates that the rapid growth of new paid users, overall live broadcast and value-added services should be mainly brought about by the increase of coin sharing and the increase of live broadcast popularity.</p><p>This is different from the traditional live broadcast of the show. At present, the live broadcast of Station B is still in the growth stage of high-speed penetration.</p><p>6. Other businesses such as e-commerce: although the proportion is small, the momentum is stronger</p><p>In the second quarter, e-commerce continued to nearly double its high growth. However, considering that this piece of income (member purchase) is mainly driven by the consumption of core animation users, it currently accounts for a relatively small 13%. However, with the continuous growth of the two-dimensional group among users in the Z era, the future prospects should not be overestimated. Therefore, Dolphin Jun suggested that investors should pay moderate attention to this business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18a80db984627337ad7a5bca90facc7f\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3vpiikFB32ccR93qlev_iw\">海豚投研</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d200d79dddd38e6e9c8afcc45f4b15a9","relate_stocks":{"BILI":"哔哩哔哩","09626":"哔哩哔哩-W"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3vpiikFB32ccR93qlev_iw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2160799134","content_text":"北京时间8月19日港股盘后，哔哩哔哩发布了2021年二季度财报。\n本季B站实现净营收45亿元人民币，同比增长72%，优于市场一致预期的43亿元(彭博)，一如既往的超前期指引(42.5-43.5亿元)。\n展望三季度，管理层给出收入指引 51亿元~52亿元，隐含增速在60%左右，并不算特别乐观。市场当前对三季度营收的一致预期 51.7亿落在指引区间，而以往情况，指引下限就会超出市场预期。显然这一次B站的三季度指引是略保守的。\n二季度经调整净亏损8.57亿元，优于市场预期的10.84亿元。但如果从主营业务的经营亏损情况来看，15.2亿的亏损对应34%的亏损率，而市场一致预期在28%(部分头部大行的预期有所调整，与实际亏损率差不多)，细拆数据，主要预期差在运营费用上。(具体原因下文分析)\n另外在其他关键经营指标上，二季度表现与市场预期差速览：\n数据来源：B站财报、海豚投研整理\n先说结论：\n(1)从整体上看，虽然B站二季度收入端和用户数据，明显beat了公司指引和市场预期。\n但7月底公司对外与券商做过一些二季度具体业绩情况的前瞻引导(市场多数认为前瞻并不积极，因此也引发了一轮股价的下跌)，随后市场的预期根据这次前瞻也已经调整了一段时间了。\n(2)不过，从最终交付的结果来看，广告收入表现显然还是相当出色的，同比翻一倍。\n游戏则拉垮的厉害，热门新游虽然如期发布，但整体流水不增反降。自研游戏一般般B站心里还是多少清楚的，二季度对外投资游戏工作室的脚步没有停。\n(3)用户大盘增长还可以，但老问题还是没看到改善的迹象：日活用户DAU跟不上MAU的增速，可以说体现出整体用户粘性的下滑。三季度面临了多个监管压力(暑期清朗行动、未成年人保护、直播监管等)，预计用户增长可能不如以往的暑假旺季。\n但海豚君认为，从长期来看，B的价值绝不仅于此。虽然有着不做贴片广告的初心，而当下花火平台属于私域广告性质，给Up主的分成占绝对大头，变相分吃了不少原本属于B站的潜在商业价值。另外，B站当前的用户活跃度(DAU)，公域广告的效果也不能和短视频等其他平台简单对标。\n还是那句老话，B站最有价值就是平台上不断长大成为社会消费主力的Z时代用户包括Up主。这部分用户对B站的价值认可度非常高，虽然高频活跃度不如别的平台(靠算法黏住用户)，但用户会将B站视为社区，而不是一个信息接收的工具平台。\n另外，B站用户中Up主占比一直在升高，体现除了一个长期健康的社区生态，越来越多的UGC内容和参与者，使得B站的直播等打赏类的增值服务会比传统的秀场直播更具备优势。\n如果从股价走势来看，目前的B站已经跌破合理的估值区间，海豚君认为当前的股价隐含着对B站未来过于悲观的成长预期。短期内股价波动更多的还是受到了监管环境的影响，比如特殊年文化内容监管、未成年保护、暑期清朗运动等。\n另外，视频版权监管的压力也对B站造成了一定的影响，尤其对于用户增长、用户粘性方面。预计今年三季度暑期旺季的表现相较往年增长偏弱，结合公司管理层的略保守指引，短期内可能还是走震荡。和其他泛娱乐平台一样，待1-2个季度监管环境缓和后可积极介入。\n本次财报数据详细解读\n1、整体业绩：Beat指引和预期，三季度指引一般\n(1)收入端\n二季度B站实现净营收45亿元人民币，同比增长72%，优于市场一致预期的43亿元(彭博)，beat管理层指引上限。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n在不同业务中，广告收入增速继续亮眼。虽有热度较高的新游发布，但仍然表现不佳，贡献同比快速回落，直播与增值服务加速。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n(2)利润端\n二季度公司毛利率环比下滑2ppt，主要是新游分成增多、内容投资(LPL全球总决赛、电竞常规赛直播权)、提高直播分成(给主播的分成已提升至80%-90%)导致。另外，由于花火的分成大头主要给到了Up主，因此B站的广告毛利率50%左右会明显低于其他平台70-80%的水平。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n经营亏损(GAAP)15.21亿元，超出市场预期的11.88亿元，主要系营销费用率抬升所致。二季度不少新游发布，营销推广支出较多，环比增加了6ppt。除此之外，本季度员工薪酬和股权激励仍然在同比增加。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n2、用户规模：淡季不淡，但多监管下三季度增长或有压力\n二季度用户规模相比上季度净增1380万人，达到2.37亿人，在去年高基数下仍然增长38%，高于市场预期的30%。\n考虑到睿帝此前提出的2023年4亿用户的长期指引，增速按照上一年度8折的消减速度，则今年全年的用户增长速度要超过30%，否则无法完成到2023年底破4亿的目标。(如果消减速度更快，则对今年的增长压力也更大)\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n关于用户粘性，老问题仍然存在，虽然有季节性原因，但用户粘性(DAU/MAU)创两年新低。平台的活跃度会影响未来的变现价值空间，尤其是对于广告主来说，更喜欢DAU高或者用户粘性更高的平台。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n不过考虑到视频长短本身对于平台的活跃度也会存在一定影响，视频越长，活跃度也相对一般。从Questmobile关于不同视频app的30日留存来看。基本上遵循短视频>中视频>长视频的规律。公司此前提出，目前还在扩大体量规模出圈阶段，对这一指标的长期指引目标在30%。\n\n值得一提的是，二季度b站针对用户粘性，分别作了两个比较突出的功能页改版，预计三季度用户粘性会有一定改善：\na。 一个是竖屏模式“Story Mode”，类似短视频可以直接上下滑动切换视频，主要目的是增加用户时长。\n\nb。 另一个则是暑期刚上线的功能大改版，突出视频创作功能，以引导更多的用户转化为Up主。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n付费用户上，本季度游戏、大会员以及虚拟物品(如硬币、直播礼物b坷垃等)打赏付费用户受季节性影响，整体付费用户2090万人，付费渗透率环比基本持平，但单用户付费水平下滑趋势还在加速。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n3、广告业务：景气不减，商业化稳步推进\n二季度B站广告收入实现10.5亿元，增速201%，大大超出市场与海豚君的预期(150%)。随着经济复苏广告投放回暖以及B站日益被认可的品牌影响力，有助于继续推动B站广告繁荣。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n目前花火平台B站的自己拿掉的分成大概只有6%，并且按照总交易额确认收入，因此拉低了整体广告的毛利率水平。\n从B站特有的平台调性来看，花火平台的未来贡献也还会显著提升。但对于B站来说，花火平台对整体业绩的贡献，可能短期内并不是B站核心考虑的指标，而更多的是将花火视作一个维护Up主生态的一个主要赋能工具。\n毕竟在B站上，Up主与用户之间的交互高频，甚至存在一些的情感联系。可以视作是一个个私域关系组成。因此Up主也是B站的核心资产。\n海豚君猜测，除了需要补充更多的内容供给，考虑到花火的战略意义，这也是b站在不断扩展Up主规模的原因吧。\n4、游戏：B站的自研手游还是很难打\n二季度B站游戏收入同比下滑1%，对比同行(2季度国内手游市场增速13%)，可以说是很不好看了。虽然市场给予厚望的热门新游《坎公骑冠剑》、《机动战姬》、《刀剑神域》纷纷在二季度发布，但流水表现除了《坎公》将将能看之外，其他都很拉垮。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n从第三方数据Sensor Tower来看，二季度主要靠代理的老游以及《坎公》的流水支撑，而《机动战姬》、《刀剑神域》的热度下滑未免太快。(黑色线为《原神》流水，黄色线为《坎公》流水)\n\n或许是对于自己的能力心中有数，B站在一季度投资了7家游戏公司的基础上，二季度又增加了游戏项目的投资，新增投资6家。\n\n数据来源：IT桔子\n5、增值服务：表现优异，预计视频投币分成以及直播热度带来\n二季度增值业务其实表现不错了，尤其是在整体秀场日暮西山的行业大环境下，实现收入16.4亿元，同比增长98%，略有点低于大行的预期。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\nB站的直播与增值服务包括大会员、视频投币分成、直播打赏分成等。从付费用户规模来看，考虑到二季度手游表现不佳，另外4月日漫面临新监管政策(先审再播)预计对大会员收入也有影响，因此剔除掉这两部分收入，海豚君猜测此次新增付费用户、整体直播增与增值服务的高速增长，应该主要由硬币分成提升、直播热度提升带来。\n这与传统秀场直播不同，目前B站的直播仍然在高速渗透的成长阶段。\n6、电商等其他业务：占比虽小，势头更猛\n二季度电商继续高增长近一倍。但考虑这一块收入(会员购)主要靠核心动漫用户消费驱动，目前占比还相对较小13%。但随着Z时代用户中二次元群体的不断壮大，未来的前景也不可过分小觑。因此，海豚君建议投资者可适度关注这一块业务。\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09626":0.9,"BILI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3112,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838631181,"gmtCreate":1629389511643,"gmtModify":1676530027165,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>fly fly fly","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>fly fly fly","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$fly fly fly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/838631181","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2933,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839446435,"gmtCreate":1629177162127,"gmtModify":1676529954923,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"fly","listText":"fly","text":"fly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/839446435","repostId":"1191687734","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191687734","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629170912,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191687734?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-17 11:28","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Modern Dental once rose more than 30%, expecting net profit to turn into profit in the first half of the year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191687734","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月17日讯，现代牙科盘中一度涨逾30%，现报8.89港元，股价创2个月新高，市值87亿港元。公司昨晚发盈喜，预期今年上半年未经审核的纯利将介乎2.3亿元至2.45亿元，而上年同期为亏损约为1.4亿元","content":"<p>August 17th news,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03600\">Modern dentistry</a>It once rose by more than 30% in the intraday session, and is now reported at HK$ 8.89. The share price reached a two-month high, with a market value of HK$ 8.7 billion.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/763dc66ab9c40c9275c7db254b9d1438\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The company issued a positive profit last night. It is expected that the unaudited net profit in the first half of this year will range from 230 million yuan to 245 million yuan, compared with a loss of about 140 million yuan in the same period last year. According to the announcement, the turnaround from loss to profit was mainly driven by the Group's strong sales performance under the steady recovery of the dental industry. The company is expected to publish its results at the end of August.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Modern Dental once rose more than 30%, expecting net profit to turn into profit in the first half of the year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nModern Dental once rose more than 30%, expecting net profit to turn into profit in the first half of the year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-17 11:28</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>August 17th news,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03600\">Modern dentistry</a>It once rose by more than 30% in the intraday session, and is now reported at HK$ 8.89. The share price reached a two-month high, with a market value of HK$ 8.7 billion.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/763dc66ab9c40c9275c7db254b9d1438\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The company issued a positive profit last night. It is expected that the unaudited net profit in the first half of this year will range from 230 million yuan to 245 million yuan, compared with a loss of about 140 million yuan in the same period last year. According to the announcement, the turnaround from loss to profit was mainly driven by the Group's strong sales performance under the steady recovery of the dental industry. The company is expected to publish its results at the end of August.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"03600":"现代牙科"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191687734","content_text":"8月17日讯，现代牙科盘中一度涨逾30%，现报8.89港元，股价创2个月新高，市值87亿港元。公司昨晚发盈喜，预期今年上半年未经审核的纯利将介乎2.3亿元至2.45亿元，而上年同期为亏损约为1.4亿元。公告称，转亏为盈主要受集团在牙科行业稳健复苏形势下取得强劲的销售表现所驱动。公司预计于8月底刊发业绩。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03600":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2704,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830221539,"gmtCreate":1629076748621,"gmtModify":1676529921651,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"gogo","listText":"gogo","text":"gogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830221539","repostId":"2159212005","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2159212005","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1629073072,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2159212005?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-16 08:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Market pressure mounts as everyone stares at Jackson Hole Global Central Banks Annual Meeting","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2159212005","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国银行分析指出，随着杰克逊霍尔年会的到来，利率风险（duration risk）处于历史最高水平。实际无风险利率每发生1个基点的变化，就会转化为标普500指数20-30个基点的波动。","content":"<p>As the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole approaches and investors wait for a possible signal about Taper from the Federal Reserve at that time, markets are plunged into a pre-storm quiet.</p><p>The annual annual meeting of global central banks will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA from August 26th to 28th local time. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell previously confirmed that he would speak at the annual meeting, but did not disclose the topic of the speech. However, according to past experience, the Federal Reserve often throws a \"blockbuster\" at the annual meeting in Jackson Hole.</p><p>At present, the market is generally expected that the Federal Reserve will provide clues on when and how to reduce bond purchases at this annual meeting. However, the recurrence of the epidemic has added variables.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Strategists such as Mark Cabana said in a research report called \"Jackson Hold\" that U.S. Treasury Bond generally tend to rise before the annual meeting, but there is little change in the two weeks after the meeting.</p><p>Cabana et al wrote: \"It wouldn't surprise us if similar price movements occur this year. Powell is expected to deliver a speech on the progress of the U.S. economy since COVID and acknowledge that the FOMC will continue to discuss tapering its quantitative easing, but will not send a signal.\"</p><p><h2>The market stands ready</h2>However, the U.S. debt has entered a battle line, and the trend has been almost flat in the past week.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>The number of customers with a neutral stance on the U.S. Treasury Bond hit the highest level since February, according to customer data.</p><p>On August 6th, after the stronger-than-expected July non-farm payroll data was released, the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield once rebounded from a six-month low, but at present the rebound trend has stopped, and the yield has dropped to around 1.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/262bd64bc95b5fd890b67580c26ea25b\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Unlike the calm of the bond market, U.S. stocks have gained momentum, and European stocks have even risen for ten consecutive years, the longest consecutive rally since 1999. But the more it goes up, the higher the risk of clustering.</p><p>Savita Subramanian, chief equity strategist at Bank of America, warned in a note that interest rate risk (duration risk) is at an all-time high as the annual meeting at Jackson Hole approaches. Interest rate risk refers to the adverse effects of changes in interest rates.</p><p>Of the 20 market indicators the bank tracks, most are already statistically too expensive, Subramanian said. With earnings growth expected to slow significantly in the second half of the year amid inflation and a slowing economy, record interest rate risk means that if interest rates are merely slightly higher, the decline in equities will be painful.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/778e13cf47565508584080338c46b772\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Subramanian noted that a growing number of Fed officials are pressing to taper bond purchases, and that implied market volatility has risen following the strong jobs report.</p><p>In this case, the bank's fair value stress test suggests that every 1 basis point change in the real risk-free rate translates into a 20-30 basis point fluctuation in the S&P 500.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/176effeb1dc70ff8093a1b7267a7ef15\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>So, unlike other banks who rushed to raise their S&P estimates when the market moved higher, Bank of America remains the lone bear, with its forecast for a 10-year yield of 1.9% by the end of the year, up about 55 basis points from now, which would send the S&P 500 down about 15%.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Market pressure mounts as everyone stares at Jackson Hole Global Central Banks Annual Meeting</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarket pressure mounts as everyone stares at Jackson Hole Global Central Banks Annual Meeting\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-16 08:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole approaches and investors wait for a possible signal about Taper from the Federal Reserve at that time, markets are plunged into a pre-storm quiet.</p><p>The annual annual meeting of global central banks will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA from August 26th to 28th local time. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell previously confirmed that he would speak at the annual meeting, but did not disclose the topic of the speech. However, according to past experience, the Federal Reserve often throws a \"blockbuster\" at the annual meeting in Jackson Hole.</p><p>At present, the market is generally expected that the Federal Reserve will provide clues on when and how to reduce bond purchases at this annual meeting. However, the recurrence of the epidemic has added variables.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Strategists such as Mark Cabana said in a research report called \"Jackson Hold\" that U.S. Treasury Bond generally tend to rise before the annual meeting, but there is little change in the two weeks after the meeting.</p><p>Cabana et al wrote: \"It wouldn't surprise us if similar price movements occur this year. Powell is expected to deliver a speech on the progress of the U.S. economy since COVID and acknowledge that the FOMC will continue to discuss tapering its quantitative easing, but will not send a signal.\"</p><p><h2>The market stands ready</h2>However, the U.S. debt has entered a battle line, and the trend has been almost flat in the past week.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>The number of customers with a neutral stance on the U.S. Treasury Bond hit the highest level since February, according to customer data.</p><p>On August 6th, after the stronger-than-expected July non-farm payroll data was released, the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield once rebounded from a six-month low, but at present the rebound trend has stopped, and the yield has dropped to around 1.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/262bd64bc95b5fd890b67580c26ea25b\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Unlike the calm of the bond market, U.S. stocks have gained momentum, and European stocks have even risen for ten consecutive years, the longest consecutive rally since 1999. But the more it goes up, the higher the risk of clustering.</p><p>Savita Subramanian, chief equity strategist at Bank of America, warned in a note that interest rate risk (duration risk) is at an all-time high as the annual meeting at Jackson Hole approaches. Interest rate risk refers to the adverse effects of changes in interest rates.</p><p>Of the 20 market indicators the bank tracks, most are already statistically too expensive, Subramanian said. With earnings growth expected to slow significantly in the second half of the year amid inflation and a slowing economy, record interest rate risk means that if interest rates are merely slightly higher, the decline in equities will be painful.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/778e13cf47565508584080338c46b772\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Subramanian noted that a growing number of Fed officials are pressing to taper bond purchases, and that implied market volatility has risen following the strong jobs report.</p><p>In this case, the bank's fair value stress test suggests that every 1 basis point change in the real risk-free rate translates into a 20-30 basis point fluctuation in the S&P 500.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/176effeb1dc70ff8093a1b7267a7ef15\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>So, unlike other banks who rushed to raise their S&P estimates when the market moved higher, Bank of America remains the lone bear, with its forecast for a 10-year yield of 1.9% by the end of the year, up about 55 basis points from now, which would send the S&P 500 down about 15%.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637968\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","BAC":"美国银行","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".DJI":"道琼斯","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637968","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2159212005","content_text":"随着杰克逊霍尔（Jackson Hole）全球央行年会的临近，投资者静待届时美联储可能给出的关于Taper的信号，市场陷入一种暴风雨来临前的宁静。\n一年一度的全球央行年会将于当地时间8月26日至28日在美国怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔召开。美联储主席鲍威尔此前确认将在年会上发表讲话，但并未透露讲话的主题。不过按以往经验看，美联储常常会在杰克逊霍尔年会上，扔出“重磅炸弹”。\n目前市场普遍预期，美联储会在此次年会上，为缩减债券购买的时点和方式提供线索。不过疫情的反复增添了变数。\n美国银行Mark Cabana等策略师在一份名为\" Jackson Hold \"的研究报告中称，美国国债一般倾向于在年会前上涨，但会后两周内几乎没有变化。\nCabana等写道：“今年如果出现类似的价格变动不会让我们感到意外。预计鲍威尔将发表演讲，阐述新冠疫情以来美国经济的进展，并承认FOMC将继续讨论缩减量化宽松，但不会发出信号。”\n市场严阵以待\n不过美债已经进入了严阵以待，过去一周走势几乎持平。摩根大通的客户数据显示，对美国国债持中性立场的客户数量创2月份以来最高水平。\n8月6日，在强于预期的7月份非农就业数据公布后，10年期美国国债收益率一度从6个月低点反弹，但目前反弹趋势已经停止，收益率降至1.3%左右。\n\n与债市的平静不同，美股势头强劲，欧股甚至连续十年上涨，创1999年以来最长连涨记录。但越是上涨，聚集的风险越高。\n美国银行首席股票策略师Savita Subramanian在一份报告中警告称，随着杰克逊霍尔年会的到来，利率风险（duration risk）处于历史最高水平。利率风险是指因为利率变动而产生的不利影响。\nSubramanian表示，在该行追踪的20个市场指标中，从统计学上来看，大多数都已经太昂贵了。在通胀和经济放缓影响下，预计下半年盈利增长大幅放缓，创纪录的利率风险意味着，如果利率仅仅是小幅上升，股市的下跌都会是令人痛苦的。\n\nSubramanian指出，越来越多的美联储官员正在敦促缩减购债规模，在强劲的就业报告公布后，市场隐含波动率上升了。\n在这种情况下，该行的公允价值压力测试表明，实际无风险利率每发生1个基点的变化，就会转化为标普500指数20-30个基点的波动。\n\n因此，与其他银行在市场走高时匆忙上调标普预期不同，美国银行仍然是唯一的看跌者，它对10年期收益率的预测是年底前达到1.9%，较目前上涨约55个基点，这将导致标普500指数下跌约15%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SHY":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"BAC":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"SH":0.9,"GOVT":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"TLT":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QID":0.9,"IEI":0.9,"IEF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830885930,"gmtCreate":1629046232120,"gmtModify":1676529916224,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"gogoog","listText":"gogoog","text":"gogoog","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830885930","repostId":"1118683392","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118683392","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628926455,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1118683392?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-14 15:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Ren Zeping: Global House Price Trends in 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118683392","media":"格隆汇","summary":"推动新一轮房改（新房改）迫在眉睫。","content":"<p>Author: Ren Zeping Team</p><p><b>introduction</b></p><p>We put forward an analytical framework widely circulated in the industry: real estate looks at population in the long term, land in the medium term and finance in the short term. This article looks at the global housing price trend and examines the factors and laws driving the housing price trend in different economies and major metropolitan areas.</p><p><b>The difference of long-term trend of local currency house prices in different economies can be explained as four aspects: income effect brought by economic growth, population effect caused by total population and structural changes, monetary illusion brought by money supply, and supply and demand pattern influenced by housing system.</b></p><p><b>In the past 51 years, housing prices in 23 economies have increased by an average of 29.6 times, with an average annual growth rate of over 6%. According to the increase in house prices, it can be divided into three categories:</b>First, the cumulative increase of housing prices in four economies, including South Africa and New Zealand, is more than 60 times and the average annual growth rate is 8.5%-10%; Second, there are 14 economies such as Ireland and Australia with the cumulative increase of housing prices between 5-50 times and the average annual growth rate between 5.5%-8%; Third, there are five economies, including Thailand and Switzerland, where the cumulative increase in housing prices is less than 5 times and the average annual growth is less than 4%.</p><p><b>During the pandemic, housing prices increased significantly, which was due to the implementation of quantitative easing policies in various countries and the release of improvement demand due to the backlog of the pandemic.</b>In the past year, the average house price of major economies has increased by more than 7%, Turkey has risen by 32%, New Zealand has risen by 22%, while the growth rate of major Asian countries is lower than the global average, and Singapore has the largest house price increase of 6.1%; China's house prices rose 4.3%.</p><p><b>The biggest increase in housing prices is in the metropolitan area of a country's internal population inflow.</b>London house prices have risen 113 times in 53 years, and the increase in inner London is even bigger; Land prices in Japan rose 82 times in the 36 years before the bubble burst, and the increase in six core cities was as high as 210 times.</p><p><b>We call for a new round of housing reform (new housing reform) to be urgently promoted. With the linkage between people and land, the control of currency and property tax as the core, we will speed up the construction of a long-term real estate mechanism, and promote the long-term stable and healthy development of the real estate market. There is still a time window of the last ten years.</b></p><p><b>text</b></p><p>1 Differences in housing price increases in different economies: economic growth, demographic change, money supply, housing system</p><p><b>1.1 There are obvious differences in housing price trends in 23 economies in the past 51 years</b></p><p><b>From Q1 1970 to Q1 2021, house prices in 23 economies increased by an average of 29.6 times, with an average annual growth rate of over 6%. According to the increase in house prices, it can be divided into three categories:</b></p><p><b>First, the cumulative increase of housing prices in four economies, including South Africa, New Zealand, Spain and the United Kingdom, is more than 60 times and the average annual growth rate is 8.5%-10%.</b>The cumulative increase of housing prices in South Africa and New Zealand is as high as 110.5 times and 86.9 times respectively, with an average annual growth of 9.7% and 9.2% respectively, ranking first and second among 23 economies respectively; UK house prices have increased by 62.3 times, with an average annual growth of 8.6%, ranking third among 23 economies; From Q1 1979 to Q1 2021, house prices in Spain increased 60.2 times cumulatively, with an average annual growth of 8.6%.</p><p><b>Second, there are 14 economies in Ireland, Australia, Hong Kong, Norway, Italy, Canada, Sweden, France, Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland, Malaysia, the United States and Belgium, with the cumulative increase of house prices between 5-50 times and the average annual increase of 5.5%-8%.</b>Housing prices in Ireland and Australia have increased by 48.1 times and 47.3 times, with an average annual growth of 7.9%; From Q1 1979 to Q1 2021, house prices in Hong Kong, China increased by 19.9 times, with an average annual growth of 7.7%; From Q1 1988 to Q1 2021, house prices in Malaysia increased by 5.1 times, with an average annual growth of 5.6%; The other 10 countries increased by 15-40 times, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5%-7.5%.</p><p><b>Third, there are five economies: Thailand, Switzerland, South Korea, Germany and Japan, where the cumulative increase in housing prices is less than 5 times and the average annual growth is less than 4%.</b>Among them, Thailand increased by 1.8 times from 1991Q1 to 2021Q1, with an average annual growth rate of 3.5%; From Q1 1975 to Q1 2021, house prices in South Korea rose by 3.2 times, with an average annual growth rate of 3.2%; From Q1 1970 to Q1 2021, house prices in Switzerland, Germany and Japan increased by 4.8 times, 3.6 times and 2.7 times cumulatively, with average annual growth of 3.5%, 3.0% and 2.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeac7b4ce1943e6a27a61f1ad0644753\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"681\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b27a668cefa0b6a8cb027f216644c95b\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>With the deepening of economic and financial globalization, the linkage of global housing price trend has gradually strengthened.</b>For example, house prices in the four Nordic countries fell in the mid-to-late 1980s, in Japan and South Korea in the early 1990s, in Southeast Asia in 1997, and in global real estate in 2007.<b>From the perspective of house price trend, 23 economies in the past 51 years can be roughly divided into four categories:</b></p><p><b>First, there are four economies with housing prices basically rising and small adjustments during the period, including Australia, New Zealand, Canada and France.</b>Since 1970, the cumulative decline in any downward cycle of the above four countries has not exceeded 9%. Among them, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and other three countries have not experienced two consecutive years of decline; France made three obvious adjustments in 1992-1995, 2008-2009 and 2011-2015, but the cumulative decline did not exceed 7% in all three times.</p><p><b>Second, there are 14 economies where house prices have dropped sharply but have risen more than the previous high in the later period, including Britain, the United States, Switzerland, the Netherlands, South Africa, Norway, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Thailand.</b>For example, house prices in the Netherlands plummeted by nearly 30% from 1979 to 1982 and more than 19% from 2008 to 2013, South Africa plummeted by 11% from 1984 to 1986, Finland plummeted by 37% from 1990 to 1992, Switzerland plummeted by 22% from 1990 to 1998, Malaysia and Thailand plummeted by more than 11% from 1997 to 1998 and 1998 to 1999 respectively, Hong Kong plummeted by more than 60% from 1998 to 2003, the United States plummeted by more than 30% from 2007 to 2011, and the United Kingdom plummeted by nearly 11% from 1990 to 1992 and more than 13% from 2008 to 2009. House prices in these economies have continued to rise after sharp declines and are now above their previous highs.</p><p><b>Third, there are four economies that burst in the early housing price bubble and are still below the high point, including Japan, Spain, Ireland and Italy.</b>Although the times and countries are different, the accumulation of real estate bubbles has been stimulated by excess liquidity and low interest rates without exception, and the collapse of real estate bubbles has been related to monetary tightening and rate hike. Housing prices in Japan, Spain, Ireland and Italy peaked in 1990, 2007, 2007 and 2008 respectively. Among them, housing prices in the first three countries have rebounded slightly in recent years. In 2020, housing prices in the above four countries were only equivalent to 63.4%, 84.7%, 84.8% and 83.2% of the peak respectively.</p><p><b>Fourth, Germany is the only economy with basically stable housing price trend and small overall increase.</b>Since 1970, German house prices have experienced three relatively large rising cycles: nearly 1.8 times from 1971 to 1981, 35.1% from 1987 to 1994, and 67.6% from Q1 2009 to 2021; However, in any downward cycle, the cumulative decline has never exceeded 10%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c9b91523fdf9fd2bb5f4d451baedf75\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3be2e050170ea5199c62f80800d0fb6f\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4915716ab9826f9a5e64f8c294cdcd6\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"694\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/411177ccdf3f9b3d00fb572c5672563e\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1.2 Long-term trend of local currency housing prices is related to economic growth, demographic changes, money supply and housing system</b></p><p><b>The difference of long-term trend of local currency house prices in different economies can be explained as four aspects: income effect brought by economic growth, population effect caused by total population and structural changes, monetary illusion brought by money supply, and supply and demand pattern influenced by housing system.</b>Real estate has both consumer goods attributes (housing demand, including rigid demand and improvement demand) and financial attributes (investment speculative demand, which can be leveraged). Therefore, house prices not only depend on supply and demand (population and residents' income, land supply), but also closely related to money supply. From the experience of global real estate market operation, under the circumstances of no dispute, plague, natural disasters, economic and financial crisis, the housing price of a country rises for a long time with the economic development.</p><p><b>From 1970 to Q1 2021, the average annual growth rate of local currency house prices and nominal GDP growth rate of local currency in 23 economies were 6.3% and 7.5%, respectively, which were relatively close, and the correlation coefficient was 0.52;</b>Excluding Thailand and Malaysia, the correlation coefficient of 21 economies is 0.54; Excluding Thailand, Malaysia, South Korea and Hong Kong, the correlation coefficient of 19 economies reaches 0.87. Nominal GDP can be decomposed into constant price per capita GDP, population, GDP deflator, and the housing system that affects the supply and demand pattern. Four factors can better explain the long-term trend differences of housing prices in different economies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7af05caae4ef416d72059040f7bd4d3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1) The income effect of economic growth. The growth of constant price GDP reflects the real economic growth after excluding prices. The growth of constant price GDP per capita in local currency means that the real purchasing power of residents increases and the demand for real estate increases.</b>From 1970 to Q1, 2021, the average annual growth rate of constant price of local currency in 23 economies was 2.7% and the median was 2.2%, and the average annual growth rate of constant price of local currency per capita was 1.9% and the median was 1.6% (the data calculation of some economies started when housing price data was available, and Spain, Hong Kong, South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand started from 1971, 1979, 1975, 1988 and 1991 respectively). Among them, the average annual growth rate of per capita GDP in constant local currency in South Korea is as high as 5.3%, that of Ireland, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Thailand is all over 2.5%, that of other economies is mostly below 2%, and that of South Africa is only 0.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de3b1d4d783da6689b6041becd9503e2\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2) Population effect caused by total population and structural changes.</b>The impact of population on housing prices at the economic level is mainly reflected in the following three aspects:</p><p><b>First, changes in the total population affect housing prices.</b>Total population changes include natural growth, cross-border population movements and, in general, changes in population size are directly proportional to housing demand. According to the World Bank data, the global fertility rate in 2019 was 2.4, of which the combined fertility rates of high-income, middle-high-income, low-middle-income and low-income economies were 1.6, 1.8, 2.7 and 4.6 respectively. The fertility rates of high-income and middle-high-income economies are no longer enough to make up for the generational replacement of the population. But high-income economies attract large cross-border inflows. From 1960 to 2020, the accumulated net inflow of population from high-income economies amounted to 140 million, and the proportions from middle-high, middle-low and low-income economies were 26.4%, 50.0% and 27.1% respectively. The living standard of the population in middle and high-income economies is close to that of high-income economies, and the migration motivation is not strong; Low-income economies have strong migration motivation, but it is difficult to bear the migration cost; Low-and middle-income economies have strong migration motivation and can bear the migration cost. According to the statistics of the United Nations, the population of Germany once decreased by about 2.3 million from 2004 to 2011, and then returned to growth due to immigration. Japan's population began to grow negatively in 2009, and Italy's population began to grow negatively in 2016.</p><p><b>Second, changes in demographic structure affect housing prices.</b>Changes in demographic structure, such as the main home buyers aged 20-50 and the size of households, will lead to changes in housing demand. In terms of household size, due to delayed marriage age, increased unmarriage and divorce rates, low fertility rate, extended life expectancy, population aging, population movement, etc., the global household size has shown a trend of miniaturization, which has increased certain housing demand. In 1960-2015, household size fell from 3.33 to 2.54 in the United States and from 4.14 to 2.39 in Japan; Furthermore, in 1980-2015, South Korea dropped from 4.78 to 2.73. In terms of the main home buyers, the population aged 20-49 in the United States is still growing, and Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom have peaked in 1996, 2004 and 2011 respectively. The change of the scale of the main home buyers has a very significant impact on the real estate market.</p><p><b>Third, the population affects housing prices through economic growth.</b>The demographic dividend is an important source of rapid economic growth in many catch-up economies in the past. After the demographic dividend disappears, the economy often turns to medium or low growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32d6b01bca24010940600884b4f55b7e\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373bd33ed383da37d0380f150e39c70b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>3) Monetary illusion brought about by the money supply.</b>From international experience, in the process of economic development, most countries have varying degrees of excessive currency issuance, which leads to changes in asset prices. Generally speaking, higher growth in the broad money supply leads to higher inflation. From 1970 to 2021Q1, the average annual GDP deflator of the 23 economies was 4.3% on average and 4.0% on median, which was not only close to the average annual housing price growth of 6.3% in the 23 economies on an absolute level, but also fluctuated more consistently. For example, in Q1 1970-2021, South Africa's broad money increased by 532.5 times. With the substantial excess of currency, South Africa's nominal GDP increased by 390.2 times, while its real GDP only increased by 1.9 times, the GDP deflator increased by 130.2 times, and house prices increased by 101.6 times. U.S. broad money rose 33.2 times, nominal GDP rose 19.0 times, real GDP rose 2.8 times, the GDP deflator rose 5.2 times, and home prices rose 13 times. However, excessive currency issuance is easy to breed asset price bubbles such as real estate, and in extreme cases, it may even lead to economic crises, such as Japanese real estate bubble in 1990s and US subprime mortgage crisis in 2007.</p><p><b>Due to the faster growth of broad money in emerging economies, house prices in local currency terms have increased more than in advanced economies.</b>According to the data of the World Bank, the average annual growth rate of broad money in nine representative emerging economies including India and Mexico from 2001 to 2020 was 13.7%, which was significantly higher than the 5.3% of six representative developed economies including Britain, the United States and Japan. According to BIS statistics, the average annual growth rate of housing prices in emerging economies from 2010 to 2020 was 6.8%, exceeding the average annual growth rate of housing prices in developed economies of 3.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7906272da5dc3fe1c22ea5aa0f4e99e\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>4) The supply and demand pattern influenced by the housing system.</b>Housing system is a country's real estate market orientation. A good housing system can make housing prices stable for a long time and support the development of real economy. A bad housing system may cause housing prices to soar and plummet, weaken or even hollow out the real economy. The key to the long-term stability of German housing prices lies in the design of its residential-oriented housing system. The three pillars are: neutral and stable monetary policy and housing financial system, a tax system that encourages residents to hold houses for a long time and cracks down on speculation, and a leasing system that protects tenants' rights and interests and encourages long-term renting. At present, Singapore has formed a dual supply system with HDB flats as the main factor and private houses as the supplement. The supply structure presents a stepped distribution of \"low-rent housing-low-cost housing-improved HDB flats-private housing\", with the housing ownership rate exceeding 90%, basically realizing home ownership.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32a2ee39af0d3a9fd9990c2373fa67d0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"646\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>There is a significant difference between the increase of house prices in $1.3 and local currency</b></p><p><b>In terms of US dollars, the increase of house prices in 23 economies changed significantly from 1970 to Q1 of 2021, and there was a certain correlation between the increase of house prices in US dollars and the growth of nominal GDP in US dollars. If an economy's currency overissuance is more serious than that of the United States, the currency will depreciate against the US dollar. Therefore, the sharp rise in local currency house prices does not mean that the US dollar house prices have risen sharply, and it may not necessarily have investment value globally.</b>According to the increase of US dollar house prices, it can be roughly divided into four categories: First, the cumulative increase exceeds 50 times and the average annual growth exceeds 8%, only one in New Zealand. Second, the cumulative growth rate is 25-35 times and the average annual growth rate is 7%-7.5%, with three economies: Britain, the Netherlands and Spain. Third, the cumulative growth rate is 10-20 times and the average annual growth rate is 5%-6.9%, with 14 economies including Ireland, Australia, Norway, Belgium, Italy and Japan. Fourth, the cumulative growth rate is less than 9 times and the average annual growth rate is less than 5%. There are five economies: Germany, Malaysia, South Africa, Thailand and South Korea. Compared with the increase in local currency house prices, the biggest change was in South Africa, where the increase in local currency house prices was as high as 110.5 times from 1970 to 2021Q1, but the increase in US dollar house prices was only 3.8 times. In addition, the house price in local currency in Switzerland increased only 4.8 times, but the house price in US dollar reached 25.9 times; Italian local currency house prices rose 34.7 times, but the increase of US dollar house prices shrank to 12.1 times; Home prices in Germany rose 3.6 times in local currency and 8.8 times in US dollars.</p><p><b>From the correlation coefficient,</b>The correlation coefficient between the growth of US dollar house prices and the growth of US dollar nominal GDP in 23 economies is only 0.20, which is weak. However, if South Korea, where the nominal GDP of US dollar increased by 75.3 times and the house price of US dollar increased by only 0.7 times, and Ireland, where the nominal GDP of US dollar increased by 99.6 times and the house price of US dollar increased by only 28.7 times, are excluded, the correlation coefficient of the remaining 21 economies is 0.77; This shows that from the perspective of global real estate asset allocation, the positive correlation between the growth of US dollar house prices and the growth of US dollar nominal GDP in an economy is generally established. The long-term trend difference of US dollar house prices in different economies can also be decomposed by corresponding factors similar to the previous trend of local currency house prices. The difference is that the excess currency issuance factor of an economy relative to the United States is eliminated through the exchange rate mechanism.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cfaeece0e6f1a8b3cdfe7ae7493e4fc\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"692\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1.4 Global house prices have increased significantly under the epidemic</b></p><p><b>In the past year, house prices in major economies have increased by more than 7% on average, with Turkey rising by 32% and New Zealand rising by more than 20%.</b>According to KnightFrank data, home prices in Turkey rose 32% from Q1 2020 to Q1 2021, topping the list; It was followed by New Zealand, which rose 22%; Luxembourg was third, up 16.6%; Slovakia was fourth, up 15.5%; The U.S. came in fifth with a 13% gain, the biggest since 2005. While the growth rate of major Asian countries is lower than the global average, Singapore has the largest increase in house prices, at 6.1%; Japan, which followed, gained 5.7%; China's house prices rose 4.3%.</p><p><b>The large increase in housing prices during the epidemic period was due to the implementation of quantitative easing policies in various countries and the release of improvement demand due to the backlog of the epidemic.</b>1) From the perspective of monetary policy, in order to stimulate economic recovery under the impact of the epidemic, central banks of various countries implement quantitative easing policies. On the one hand, under the quantitative easing policy, the liquidity in the market has increased, and it has reached the hands of the people through enterprise bail-out funds and unemployment benefits. At the same time, under the loose monetary policy, mortgage interest rates have been lowered. For example, the 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate anchored by the American Mortgage Banking Association has reached a record low of 3.08%. On the other hand, the currency depreciation brought by the quantitative easing policy makes people eager to find value-preserving assets, and real estate with value-preserving and appreciation attributes has become the first choice for investment. 2) From the perspective of demand, the backlog of improvement demand during the epidemic will be released after the epidemic has been controlled to some extent. Secondly, \"black swan\" events such as the epidemic have made more and more investors try to reduce risks by diversifying assets, and owning a second home has become the choice of more high-net-worth individuals. 3) From the perspective of supply, the loose monetary policy has caused a general rise in asset prices, and the rise in raw material prices has increased the construction cost. At the same time, the epidemic has led to a shortage of workers, which has aggravated the tight supply of raw materials, further pushed up raw material prices, and thus pushed up housing prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/834288b9b8894d0402b3c3f3f5cd3a38\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>2 Which region has the biggest increase in house prices in a country: the metropolitan area with population inflow</p><p><b>2.1 UK: London house prices have risen 113 times in 53 years, with Inner London rising even more</b></p><p>There are three areas of London: the City of London, Greater London, and the London Metropolitan Area. London City is the City of London, with a small area. In the general sense, London refers to the Greater London area, including 319 square kilometers of Inner London and 1,254 square kilometers of Outer London, with a total land area of 1,573 square kilometers, accounting for 0.6% of the UK; The London metropolitan area consists of Greater London and surrounding areas. Due to the prominent diseases in big cities caused by urban planning problems, the British government once controlled the population of London, especially inner London, relocated industries after World War II, and built a large number of new cities. From 1941 to 1991, the annual population of London dropped from 8.62 million to 6.39 million, and then rose to 8.82 million in 2017, currently accounting for 13.4% of the British population. However, under the influence of economy, the population of the surrounding areas of London has been agglomerated for a long time. From 1931 to 2001, the population of southeast England increased from less than 13 million to more than 18 million, accounting for 27.5% to 31.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02ca4c76a629e8fce4ea2dff163fba65\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>In the past 53 years, house prices in Greater London have increased by 113 times, far exceeding the average house price increase in Britain and England (71 and 81 times) and the nominal GDP increase in Britain (51 times).</b>According to the data of the UK National Statistics Office (ONS), in the UK, from 1968 to March 2021, the house price in Greater London increased from 0.4,400 pounds per unit to 0.500,000 pounds per unit, in England from 0.3,400 pounds per unit to 275,000 pounds per unit, and nationally from 0.3,600 pounds per unit to 256,000 pounds per unit. The house price in London increased by 113 times, which was higher than 71 times nationally and 81 times in England. In the same period (1967-2020), the nominal GDP of the UK increased by 50.7 times, with an average annual growth of 7.7%, and the increase of house prices obviously outperformed the nominal GDP growth.</p><p><b>In stages, the house price increase in Greater London was very close to that in England and the United Kingdom before 1994, but the volatility increased obviously after 1995, especially after the global financial crisis in 2008.</b>From 1968 to 1994, house prices in Greater London, England and Britain increased by 15.0 times, 14.7 times and 14.6 times respectively, with small differences; However, until March 2018, the increase of house prices was obviously differentiated, which was 5.3 times, 3.5 times and 3 times respectively. Affected by the 2008 financial crisis, house prices in Greater London, England and the United Kingdom fell by 16.6%, 15.0% and 14.9% year-on-year in April 2009; After that, under the background of monetary stimulus quantitative easing, house prices gradually picked up, with average annual growth rates of 7.5%, 4.5% and 4.1% respectively by March 2018.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65731004c8f9a4f7c0bc36cc5cfb211a\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>From the interior of the London metropolitan area, the house price in Greater London has increased by more than 6.5 times in the past 26 years, ranking first in the region, and the increase in the surrounding areas is less than 6.0%.</b>In the three years from January 1995 to 2021, Greater London house prices increased by 6.7 times, while the surrounding areas of Kent, Hertfordshire, Essex, Windsor and Maidenhead, Surrey saw increases of 5.5, 5.7, 5.5, 5.2 and 5.4 times respectively, with Greater London house price increases significantly higher than the surrounding areas. In addition, house prices in Birmingham, the second largest city in Britain, rose only 4.6 times during this period, significantly lower than the increase in London and surrounding areas.</p><p><b>From the inside of Greater London, in the past 26 years, the house price in the core area of London has increased by more than 7 times, and the house price in outside London has increased by less than 6.5 times.</b>Inner London house prices rose 7.6 times from £78,300/unit to £594,500/unit between January 1995 and March 2021; Outer London house prices rose 6.2 times from £73,000/unit to £451,000/unit. At present, the most expensive house prices in London are Kensington and Chelsea (£1,2272 million/unit), followed by City of Westminster (£936,800/unit), up 6.7 times and 7.0 times respectively from January 1995.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d53232626f2d5e64d75a676f520e515f\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"692\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1e929dc297e8b1905401a6ed5999242\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2.2 France: Housing prices in Paris have risen 44 times in 55 years, exceeding the surrounding areas</b></p><p>Paris has three areas: Paris City (or Little Paris), Greater Paris (including three suburban provinces), and Paris Region (including four outer suburban provinces, also known as \"Ile-de-France\"), with land areas of 105, 761 and 12001 square kilometers respectively, of which the land area of Paris Region accounts for 1.8% of France. With industrial agglomeration, the French population has continued to gather in Paris and surrounding areas for a long time. From 1876 to 2014, the population of Paris basically increased from 3.32 million to 12.03 million, the proportion of the population increased from 8.6% to 18.8%, and the economic share increased from 28.4% in 1990 to 30.4% in 2014. During this period, for the purpose of controlling the population to cure metropolitan diseases, the city of Paris declined for a long time. From 1931 to 1999, it continued to drop from 2.89 million to 2.13 million, and then rose to 2.18 million in 2018.</p><p><b>In the past 55 years, the house price in Paris has increased by 43.7 times in 55 years, obviously exceeding the average house price increase in France (26.6 times) and the nominal GDP increase in France (29.5 times). Its average annual growth rates are 7.2%, 6.2% and 6.4% respectively.</b>Before that, from 1945 to 1965, due to the influence of postwar reconstruction, baby boom and excessive currency issuance, house prices in Paris and France soared 54.1 and 38.3 times respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 22.2% and 20.1%, but they still lagged behind the average annual growth rate of nominal GDP (51.2% from 1950 to 1965).</p><p><b>Looking at it in stages,</b>The trend of house prices in Paris after 1966 can be divided into four stages: 1) 1966-1990, the period of rapid house price increase. During this period, house prices in Paris, French house prices and French nominal GDP increased by 10.7%, 9.3% and 10.6% annually. 2) 1992-1997, the period of house price decline. Due to the vigorous real estate speculation and the excessive increase of house prices in Paris from 1985 to 1990 (including the increase of more than 17% for four consecutive years from 1987 to 1990), house prices in Paris began to fall sharply. During this period, the average annual growth of house prices in Paris, French house prices and French nominal GDP was-6.1%, -0.4% and 3.8%. By the end of 1997, the house prices in Paris fell miserably to 69% in 1991. 3) 1998-2015, period of fluctuating growth. During this period, house prices in Paris, French house prices and French nominal GDP increased by 7.2%, 5.0% and 3.0% annually. Among them, house prices in Paris fell continuously from 2013 to 2015. However, after 2015, house prices in Paris ushered in a wave of large increases.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c239d397cf1aeafa440025897669e859\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The house price increase in Paris ranked first in the Paris region. From Q4, 1997 to Q1, 2021, the house price increase in Paris exceeded 3.5 times, which was significantly higher than that in the three suburban provinces and the four outer suburban provinces.</b>Because the land area of Paris is small (105 square kilometers), which is slightly larger than the sum of the area of Dongcheng District and Xicheng District of Beijing (93 square kilometers), we no longer analyze the house price in Paris, but take Paris as the core area of Paris region, and analyze the trend difference between its house price and other areas of Paris region. According to the data of the French Bureau of Statistics (INSEE), from Q4 1997 to Q1 2021, house prices in Paris increased by 3.7 times, significantly exceeding the 2.5 times of the three suburban provinces and the 1.6 times of the four outer suburban provinces. During this period, France's nominal GDP increased by 0.8 times. The three suburban provinces of Hauts de Seine, Seine St Denis and Val de Marne rose by 2.6 times, 2.5 times and 2.4 times respectively. The four outer suburban provinces of Yvelines, Val d'Oise, Seine and Marne and Essonne increased house prices by 1.8 times, 1.7 times, 1.5 times and 1.5 times respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef31ec3f0316c99a2e4b77fd99eac928\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"678\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2.3 United States: New York City House Prices Increase 9-fold in 46 Years, Queens Outperforms</b></p><p>New York has multiple meanings: New York City, New York Metropolitan Area, New York United Statistical Area, etc. Among them, New York City has a land area of 789 square kilometers and a population of 8.55 million in 2015; The New York-Newark-Jersey City Metropolitan Statistical Area (NY-NJ-PAMSA) covers an Area of approximately 17,000 square kilometers and had a population of 20.18 million in 2015; The New York-Newark Combined Statistical Area comprises the New York metropolitan Area and adjacent metropolitan areas, with a population of 23.72 million in 2015. From the perspective of population, due to the shift of the economic center of gravity of the United States to the west coast and the south coast, although the population of New York area basically continued to grow from 1950 to 2015, the increase rate of 84% was far smaller than that of Los Angeles area of 328%, which caused the population proportion of New York area to decline significantly. During this period, due to population suburbanization and manufacturing decline, the population of New York City decreased from 7.89 million to 7.02 million from 1950 to 1980; Later, due to urban renewal and industrial transformation and upgrading, the population rose to 8.55 million in 2015, and the population dropped slightly to 8.42 million in 2019.</p><p><b>In the past 46 years, housing prices in New York City have increased by more than 9 times, which is higher than the average level in the United States, but lower than the price increase around New York City and Los Angeles area.</b>According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), from 1975 to Q1 2021, house prices in the United States, New York City, New York-Jersey-White Plains Subdivision (one of the New York Metropolitan Area Subdivision) (Q1 1976-2021), and Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale Subdivision (one of the Los Angeles Metropolitan Area Subdivision) increased by 8.1 times, 9.9 times, 12.9 times, and 19.7 times, respectively, with average annual growth rates of 4.9%, 5.3%, 6.0%, and 6.8%, respectively. Housing prices in the New York-Jersey-White Plains subdivision, although not as high as those in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale subdivision, are still significantly higher than the U.S. average. In addition, during this period, the nominal GDP of the United States increased by 13.7 times, with an average annual growth of 6.0%, and the M2 increased by 20.5 times, with an average annual growth of 6.9%. This means that New York City home prices underperformed U.S. nominal GDP and M2 over the same period, while the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale subdivision outperformed U.S. nominal GDP and approached M2.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3365bc98f3d57e2abfa2e44b8cd57d69\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22a2c22f165e582eba667aa4ba1eed6f\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>In the New York metropolitan area, house prices in New York subdivisions have increased more than four times in the past 35 years, ranking second among the four major subdivisions in New York metropolitan area.</b>In addition to the New York-Jersey City-White Plains subdivision, the New York metro area includes three subdivisions: NassauCounty – Suffolk County, Dutchess County – Putnam County, and Newark. The trend of house prices in the four major subdivisions is basically the same, among which the Nassau County – Suffolk County subdivision rose by 4.3 times from 1986 to Q1 of 2021, with an average annual increase of 4.9%, ranking first; The New York-Jersey City-White Plains subdivision rose 4.1 times, with an average annual increase of 4.6 percent, ranking second; The Newark Subdivision and the DutchessCounty-Putnam County Subdivision (Q1 1986-2018) increased 3.4x and 2.6x, respectively, with average annual increases of 4.3% and 4.6%, respectively.</p><p><b>Inside New York City, Manhattan home prices have nearly tripled in the past 30 years, which is higher than New York City levels.</b>In Q1 1991-2021, house prices in Manhattan, New York City increased by 1.9 times, with an average annual increase of 3.7%, and in Queens (1991-2020), house prices increased by 2.8 times, with an average annual increase of 4.7%. During this period, house prices in New York City and New York subdivision increased by 1.8 times and 2.0 times, respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d564c533cc7c696dd75bfb7fc8caa8b\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2.4 Japan: Six core cities have risen 210 times in 36 years</b></p><p>Tokyo has three ranges: Tokyo Metropolitan Area, Tokyo Metropolitan, which includes the Tokyo Circle of Chiba, Saitama, and Kanagawa Prefectures, with land areas of 627, 2188, and 13,558 square kilometers, respectively. Tokyo Circle accounts for 3.6% of Japan's land area, with a population of 36.94 million in 2020, accounting for 29.3% of Japan's, and its current GDP accounts for about 1/3 of Japan's.</p><p>Japanese population movement is divided into two stages: Before 1974, the national population basically continued to gather in the three poles of Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya circles. From 1884 to 1973, apart from the impact of the war, the population of Tokyo circle increased from 4.06 million to 26.07 million, accounting for 23.9% from 10.8%; The population of Osaka increased from 3.92 million to 16.36 million, accounting for 15.0% from 10.5%; The population of Nagoya Circle increased from 3.11 million to 9.18 million, accounting for 8.4% from 8.3%. After that, it turned to one pole concentration in Tokyo circle, while the population inflow and outflow in Nagoya circle were basically balanced, and the long-term net outflow in Osaka circle; By 2016, the population of Tokyo Circle, Osaka Circle and Nagoya Circle was 36.29, 18.31 and 11.34 million, accounting for 28.6%, 14.4% and 8.9% respectively. During this period, the population growth of Osaka Circle and Nagoya Circle was mainly due to natural growth. The population growth of Tokyo was stagnant from 1970 to 1997, mainly due to the industrial transfer and population migration in Tokyo metropolitan area, but the population of Tokyo non-metropolitan area and Tokyo circle prefectures increased significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d574585fc9099cc15439a0835d5fb4e1\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Land prices in Japan rose 82 times in the 36 years before the bubble burst, and the increase in six core cities was as high as 210 times.</b>Before the burst of the real estate bubble in 1991, Japanese land prices kept rising except for the adjustment in 1975, rising 82 times from 1955 to 1991, exceeding the nominal GDP increase of 55 times in that period; Among them, land prices in six core cities rose 210 times, and non-core cities rose 78 times. In stages, from 1955 to 1974, land prices in six core cities, including Tokyo, Yokohama, Nagoya, Kyoto, Osaka and Kobe, increased by 40.6 times, with an annual average of 21.7%, while those in other cities increased by 29.6 times, with an annual average of 19.7%. In the same period, nominal GDP increased by 15 times, with an annual average of 15.7%. From 1975 to 1991, land prices in six core cities increased by 4.5 times, with an annual average of 11.2%, while those in other cities increased by 1.7 times, with an annual average of 6.4%. In the same period, nominal GDP increased by 2.2 times, with an annual average of 7.5%.</p><p>In 1975, Japan's house prices continued to rise after the adjustment, mainly due to economic growth and the support of the main home buyers. However, due to the rapid rise in the later period, the sharp decline of the birth population, the peak of the main home buyers in the 1990s and the wrong response of the Japanese government, the real estate bubble burst in the early 1990s. After that, the land price in Japan continued to adjust to 2005. In 2017, the land price in Japan was only 47.1% of the peak. The land price in six core cities has fallen from 1992 to 2005. After experiencing a short-term rise in 2006-2008, it fell again in 2009-2012 due to the global financial crisis, and began to rise up in 2013. In 2017, the land price was only equivalent to 35.3% of the peak in 1991; Due to population outflow, land prices in Japan's non-core cities have been falling since 1992, and in 2017 land prices were equivalent to 47.5% of the peak in 1991.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b856c3f9e7ac62406c37642cf3647a60\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The trend of land price in Tokyo is basically the same as that of Japan as a whole, but the peak was in 1990, one year earlier than that of Japan as a whole, and increased by 3.4 times from 1976 to 1990, with an annual average of 11.1%; After that, it continued to decline until 2005, and in 2014, it was ahead of the national recovery.</b>Housing prices in Tokyo and Osaka peaked in 1990, and land prices in Nagoya and local areas peaked in 1991 and 1992 respectively. From 1976 to the peak of housing prices, land prices in Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya and local areas increased by 3.4, 3.9, 2.0 and 0.9 times, respectively, with an average annual growth of 11.1%, 12.0%, 7.7% and 4.0%, respectively; Especially before the housing price bubble burst, the land price in Tokyo soared 0.95 times from 1987 to 1988, and that in Osaka soared 1.6 times from 1988 to 1990. From 1976 to 1991, Japan's nominal GDP increased by 1.8 times, with an average annual growth of 7.2%, and its M2 increased by 2.7 times, with an average annual growth of 9.0%.</p><p>After the burst of the real estate bubble in the early 1990s, land prices in Tokyo fell sharply to 2005, and began to rise from 2006 to 2008. However, due to the global financial crisis, they began to adjust again in 2009 and began to rise again in 2014. By 2020, land prices in Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya and local areas were only 40.7%, 27.8%, 59.0% and 56.7% of the peak, respectively. The reason why the land price in Osaka circle adjusted the most tragic is that it rose the most before the bubble burst and lacked population support.</p><p><b>The land price in Tokyo metropolitan area peaked in 1988, and it doubled in the five years before the peak. At the same time, it adjusted early and stopped falling quickly. From 2005 to 2020, it rose by more than 25%, the highest in Tokyo circle.</b>Land prices in Tokyo and the Tokyo metropolitan area peaked in 1988, two years earlier than those in Tokyo and three years earlier than those in Japan as a whole. In the first five years of the peak, prices in the Tokyo metropolitan area rose twice, up from 1.8 times in Tokyo and 1.2 times in the Tokyo area. After the peak, house prices in Tokyo and the Tokyo metropolitan area continued to fall until 2005, then fell from 2009 to 2013, and began to pick up in 2014. From 2005 to 2020, housing prices in Tokyo Metropolitan and Tokyo Metropolitan Region increased by 13.3% and 27.5% respectively, while housing prices in Tokyo Metropolitan Non-Region Region remained basically flat, while housing prices in Tokyo Region fell by 1.7%. In 2016, the housing prices of Tokyo metropolitan, district and non-metropolitan districts were equivalent to 42.7%, 46.7% and 38.8% of their peak, respectively, which was very close to the 40.7% of Tokyo circle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/befe38251db05984d0243ae602871331\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a8bad47d30fee108ac396d9cb7ee063\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>3 Conclusion: In the past 51 years, real estate in metropolitan areas has outperformed money printing machines and promoted new housing reform</p><p><b>1) From a global perspective, a country's real estate market depends on: economic growth, demographic change, money supply, and housing system. Among them, the first two are fundamental factors; Over-issuance of currency will lead to a sharp rise in domestic local currency house prices, but not necessarily a sharp rise in US dollar house prices, that is, it may not necessarily have investment value from a global perspective; Housing system is the policy orientation of a country's real estate market.</b></p><p><b>2) Real estate has anti-inflation attributes and can partly share the dividend of economic growth, and real estate in metropolitan areas of most countries is one of the few assets that can outperform money printing machines.</b>From 1970 to Q1 2021, the growth rate of local currency house prices in 23 economies all exceeded the growth rate of their respective CPI to varying degrees. The average annual growth of real house prices in the United Kingdom, New Zealand, Hong Kong, China and Malaysia after deducting CPI can still reach over 3%, while the growth of real house prices in Japan and Germany after deducting CPI is close to 0. Compared with nominal GDP growth in local currencies, in Q1 1970-2021, only a few economies, such as New Zealand, outperformed house prices out of 23 economies, meaning that house prices in most economies can only partially share the economic growth dividend.</p><p><b>In the long run, the excessive issuance of global currency is a common phenomenon. The growth rate of broad money is mostly higher than the nominal GDP growth, and there are not many assets that can outperform money printing machines. Real estate in metropolitan areas of most countries is one of them.</b>From an international perspective, the average annual growth rate of house prices in the UK from 1987 to 2020 was 5.6%, which was higher than the average annual growth rate of nominal GDP of 4.5%, but still lower than the average annual growth rate of broad money of 7.1%; U.S. home prices grew at an average annual rate of 4.5% from 1960 to 2020, while nominal GDP and M2 grew at an average annual rate of 6.3% and 7.1%, respectively. Looking at metropolitan areas, in the United States, the New York-Jersey-White Plains subdivision recorded an average annual price growth of 5.8% from 1975 to 2020, down from 6.8% of M2 in the same period and the same as 5.8% of GDP. In China, the average annual growth rate of the broad money supply M2 in the past 40 years has been 15%. Since 1998, the average annual compound growth rate of the average sales price of newly-built houses in China has reached 7.72%, which is nearly 8 percentage points lower than the growth rate of M2 in the same period, while the house prices in first-tier cities are basically the same as the growth rate of M2.</p><p><b>3) From the perspective of global asset allocation, some emerging economies with great economic growth potential, especially their core cities, have great investment potential.</b>Generally speaking, emerging economies have serious excessive currency issuance, and house prices have increased greatly. However, from the perspective of global asset allocation, investors are concerned about the increase of US dollar house prices, that is, excluding the exchange rate change caused by the relative excessive currency issuance, while the increase of US dollar house prices is mainly related to the nominal GDP growth of US dollar, which can decompose economic growth, population change, housing system and other factors. Some emerging economies with great economic growth potential may have a \"golden age\" similar to the past of China's real estate market in the future, but they need to pay attention to political, legal and other related risks.</p><p><b>4) Build a residential-oriented new housing system in China.</b>The development of China's real estate in 20 years shows that short-term regulation cannot solve the fundamental contradiction of long-term imbalance between supply and demand, and deepening the reform of housing system is the fundamental to realize the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.</p><p><b>First, reform the \"linkage between people and land\" and optimize land supply.</b>At present, the \"people-land linkage\" is linked between the number of settled agricultural migrants and the supply of construction land, which can't solve the contradiction between the population inflow in hot cities and the shortage of housing supply. In the future, the new permanent population should be linked with land supply, and the balance of cultivated land occupation and compensation across provinces should be linked with the increase or decrease of urban and rural land use, such as the land sales index in northeast and west regions, which can effectively solve the problem of massive waste of land use index in northeast and west regions. Strictly implement the principle of \"linking the inventory elimination cycle with land supply\", and optimize the current land supply mode.</p><p><b>The second is to maintain the long-term stability of monetary policy and real estate financial policy.</b>Implement a long-term and stable housing credit financial policy to stabilize the expectations of buyers, support the demand for rigid and improved housing purchases, and at the same time curb speculative demand. Support the reasonable financing needs of housing enterprises, standardize the use of financing, and prevent excessive financing.</p><p><b>The third is to transform the housing supply structure and enrich the supply subjects.</b>At present, China's housing supply system emphasizes sales over leasing, and a multi-subject supply-oriented housing system has not yet been established. In the future, the main supplier will change from developers to the government, developers, leasing agencies, long-term leasing companies and other suppliers; The supply form will also shift from commercial housing to commercial housing, rental housing, shared property housing and other categories. However, the exploration of housing supply structure and the introduction of policies must be adapted to local conditions, and cities with net population outflow need to be vigilant against blindly following the trend.</p><p><b>Fourth, steadily promote the pilot project of property tax.</b>With the end of the era of large-scale development and the reduction of land transfer fees and tax revenue in transactions in the era of stock housing, it is the general trend to introduce property tax. From international experience, property tax is usually regarded as an important and stable source of local fiscal revenue by mature market economies. The general principle of property tax reform is \"legislation first, full authorization and step-by-step promotion\". \"Legislation first\" means legislation first and then levy; \"Full authorization\" means authorizing all localities to pilot measures according to local conditions, not one size fits all. According to international experience, the property tax itself is the local main tax; \"Distributed advancement\" means active and steady advancement, and it is necessary to strive for mature plans and do a good job in guiding social expectations.</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ren Zeping: Global House Price Trends in 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRen Zeping: Global House Price Trends in 2021\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-14 15:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Ren Zeping Team</p><p><b>introduction</b></p><p>We put forward an analytical framework widely circulated in the industry: real estate looks at population in the long term, land in the medium term and finance in the short term. This article looks at the global housing price trend and examines the factors and laws driving the housing price trend in different economies and major metropolitan areas.</p><p><b>The difference of long-term trend of local currency house prices in different economies can be explained as four aspects: income effect brought by economic growth, population effect caused by total population and structural changes, monetary illusion brought by money supply, and supply and demand pattern influenced by housing system.</b></p><p><b>In the past 51 years, housing prices in 23 economies have increased by an average of 29.6 times, with an average annual growth rate of over 6%. According to the increase in house prices, it can be divided into three categories:</b>First, the cumulative increase of housing prices in four economies, including South Africa and New Zealand, is more than 60 times and the average annual growth rate is 8.5%-10%; Second, there are 14 economies such as Ireland and Australia with the cumulative increase of housing prices between 5-50 times and the average annual growth rate between 5.5%-8%; Third, there are five economies, including Thailand and Switzerland, where the cumulative increase in housing prices is less than 5 times and the average annual growth is less than 4%.</p><p><b>During the pandemic, housing prices increased significantly, which was due to the implementation of quantitative easing policies in various countries and the release of improvement demand due to the backlog of the pandemic.</b>In the past year, the average house price of major economies has increased by more than 7%, Turkey has risen by 32%, New Zealand has risen by 22%, while the growth rate of major Asian countries is lower than the global average, and Singapore has the largest house price increase of 6.1%; China's house prices rose 4.3%.</p><p><b>The biggest increase in housing prices is in the metropolitan area of a country's internal population inflow.</b>London house prices have risen 113 times in 53 years, and the increase in inner London is even bigger; Land prices in Japan rose 82 times in the 36 years before the bubble burst, and the increase in six core cities was as high as 210 times.</p><p><b>We call for a new round of housing reform (new housing reform) to be urgently promoted. With the linkage between people and land, the control of currency and property tax as the core, we will speed up the construction of a long-term real estate mechanism, and promote the long-term stable and healthy development of the real estate market. There is still a time window of the last ten years.</b></p><p><b>text</b></p><p>1 Differences in housing price increases in different economies: economic growth, demographic change, money supply, housing system</p><p><b>1.1 There are obvious differences in housing price trends in 23 economies in the past 51 years</b></p><p><b>From Q1 1970 to Q1 2021, house prices in 23 economies increased by an average of 29.6 times, with an average annual growth rate of over 6%. According to the increase in house prices, it can be divided into three categories:</b></p><p><b>First, the cumulative increase of housing prices in four economies, including South Africa, New Zealand, Spain and the United Kingdom, is more than 60 times and the average annual growth rate is 8.5%-10%.</b>The cumulative increase of housing prices in South Africa and New Zealand is as high as 110.5 times and 86.9 times respectively, with an average annual growth of 9.7% and 9.2% respectively, ranking first and second among 23 economies respectively; UK house prices have increased by 62.3 times, with an average annual growth of 8.6%, ranking third among 23 economies; From Q1 1979 to Q1 2021, house prices in Spain increased 60.2 times cumulatively, with an average annual growth of 8.6%.</p><p><b>Second, there are 14 economies in Ireland, Australia, Hong Kong, Norway, Italy, Canada, Sweden, France, Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland, Malaysia, the United States and Belgium, with the cumulative increase of house prices between 5-50 times and the average annual increase of 5.5%-8%.</b>Housing prices in Ireland and Australia have increased by 48.1 times and 47.3 times, with an average annual growth of 7.9%; From Q1 1979 to Q1 2021, house prices in Hong Kong, China increased by 19.9 times, with an average annual growth of 7.7%; From Q1 1988 to Q1 2021, house prices in Malaysia increased by 5.1 times, with an average annual growth of 5.6%; The other 10 countries increased by 15-40 times, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5%-7.5%.</p><p><b>Third, there are five economies: Thailand, Switzerland, South Korea, Germany and Japan, where the cumulative increase in housing prices is less than 5 times and the average annual growth is less than 4%.</b>Among them, Thailand increased by 1.8 times from 1991Q1 to 2021Q1, with an average annual growth rate of 3.5%; From Q1 1975 to Q1 2021, house prices in South Korea rose by 3.2 times, with an average annual growth rate of 3.2%; From Q1 1970 to Q1 2021, house prices in Switzerland, Germany and Japan increased by 4.8 times, 3.6 times and 2.7 times cumulatively, with average annual growth of 3.5%, 3.0% and 2.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeac7b4ce1943e6a27a61f1ad0644753\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"681\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b27a668cefa0b6a8cb027f216644c95b\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>With the deepening of economic and financial globalization, the linkage of global housing price trend has gradually strengthened.</b>For example, house prices in the four Nordic countries fell in the mid-to-late 1980s, in Japan and South Korea in the early 1990s, in Southeast Asia in 1997, and in global real estate in 2007.<b>From the perspective of house price trend, 23 economies in the past 51 years can be roughly divided into four categories:</b></p><p><b>First, there are four economies with housing prices basically rising and small adjustments during the period, including Australia, New Zealand, Canada and France.</b>Since 1970, the cumulative decline in any downward cycle of the above four countries has not exceeded 9%. Among them, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and other three countries have not experienced two consecutive years of decline; France made three obvious adjustments in 1992-1995, 2008-2009 and 2011-2015, but the cumulative decline did not exceed 7% in all three times.</p><p><b>Second, there are 14 economies where house prices have dropped sharply but have risen more than the previous high in the later period, including Britain, the United States, Switzerland, the Netherlands, South Africa, Norway, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Thailand.</b>For example, house prices in the Netherlands plummeted by nearly 30% from 1979 to 1982 and more than 19% from 2008 to 2013, South Africa plummeted by 11% from 1984 to 1986, Finland plummeted by 37% from 1990 to 1992, Switzerland plummeted by 22% from 1990 to 1998, Malaysia and Thailand plummeted by more than 11% from 1997 to 1998 and 1998 to 1999 respectively, Hong Kong plummeted by more than 60% from 1998 to 2003, the United States plummeted by more than 30% from 2007 to 2011, and the United Kingdom plummeted by nearly 11% from 1990 to 1992 and more than 13% from 2008 to 2009. House prices in these economies have continued to rise after sharp declines and are now above their previous highs.</p><p><b>Third, there are four economies that burst in the early housing price bubble and are still below the high point, including Japan, Spain, Ireland and Italy.</b>Although the times and countries are different, the accumulation of real estate bubbles has been stimulated by excess liquidity and low interest rates without exception, and the collapse of real estate bubbles has been related to monetary tightening and rate hike. Housing prices in Japan, Spain, Ireland and Italy peaked in 1990, 2007, 2007 and 2008 respectively. Among them, housing prices in the first three countries have rebounded slightly in recent years. In 2020, housing prices in the above four countries were only equivalent to 63.4%, 84.7%, 84.8% and 83.2% of the peak respectively.</p><p><b>Fourth, Germany is the only economy with basically stable housing price trend and small overall increase.</b>Since 1970, German house prices have experienced three relatively large rising cycles: nearly 1.8 times from 1971 to 1981, 35.1% from 1987 to 1994, and 67.6% from Q1 2009 to 2021; However, in any downward cycle, the cumulative decline has never exceeded 10%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c9b91523fdf9fd2bb5f4d451baedf75\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3be2e050170ea5199c62f80800d0fb6f\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4915716ab9826f9a5e64f8c294cdcd6\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"694\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/411177ccdf3f9b3d00fb572c5672563e\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1.2 Long-term trend of local currency housing prices is related to economic growth, demographic changes, money supply and housing system</b></p><p><b>The difference of long-term trend of local currency house prices in different economies can be explained as four aspects: income effect brought by economic growth, population effect caused by total population and structural changes, monetary illusion brought by money supply, and supply and demand pattern influenced by housing system.</b>Real estate has both consumer goods attributes (housing demand, including rigid demand and improvement demand) and financial attributes (investment speculative demand, which can be leveraged). Therefore, house prices not only depend on supply and demand (population and residents' income, land supply), but also closely related to money supply. From the experience of global real estate market operation, under the circumstances of no dispute, plague, natural disasters, economic and financial crisis, the housing price of a country rises for a long time with the economic development.</p><p><b>From 1970 to Q1 2021, the average annual growth rate of local currency house prices and nominal GDP growth rate of local currency in 23 economies were 6.3% and 7.5%, respectively, which were relatively close, and the correlation coefficient was 0.52;</b>Excluding Thailand and Malaysia, the correlation coefficient of 21 economies is 0.54; Excluding Thailand, Malaysia, South Korea and Hong Kong, the correlation coefficient of 19 economies reaches 0.87. Nominal GDP can be decomposed into constant price per capita GDP, population, GDP deflator, and the housing system that affects the supply and demand pattern. Four factors can better explain the long-term trend differences of housing prices in different economies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7af05caae4ef416d72059040f7bd4d3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1) The income effect of economic growth. The growth of constant price GDP reflects the real economic growth after excluding prices. The growth of constant price GDP per capita in local currency means that the real purchasing power of residents increases and the demand for real estate increases.</b>From 1970 to Q1, 2021, the average annual growth rate of constant price of local currency in 23 economies was 2.7% and the median was 2.2%, and the average annual growth rate of constant price of local currency per capita was 1.9% and the median was 1.6% (the data calculation of some economies started when housing price data was available, and Spain, Hong Kong, South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand started from 1971, 1979, 1975, 1988 and 1991 respectively). Among them, the average annual growth rate of per capita GDP in constant local currency in South Korea is as high as 5.3%, that of Ireland, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Thailand is all over 2.5%, that of other economies is mostly below 2%, and that of South Africa is only 0.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de3b1d4d783da6689b6041becd9503e2\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2) Population effect caused by total population and structural changes.</b>The impact of population on housing prices at the economic level is mainly reflected in the following three aspects:</p><p><b>First, changes in the total population affect housing prices.</b>Total population changes include natural growth, cross-border population movements and, in general, changes in population size are directly proportional to housing demand. According to the World Bank data, the global fertility rate in 2019 was 2.4, of which the combined fertility rates of high-income, middle-high-income, low-middle-income and low-income economies were 1.6, 1.8, 2.7 and 4.6 respectively. The fertility rates of high-income and middle-high-income economies are no longer enough to make up for the generational replacement of the population. But high-income economies attract large cross-border inflows. From 1960 to 2020, the accumulated net inflow of population from high-income economies amounted to 140 million, and the proportions from middle-high, middle-low and low-income economies were 26.4%, 50.0% and 27.1% respectively. The living standard of the population in middle and high-income economies is close to that of high-income economies, and the migration motivation is not strong; Low-income economies have strong migration motivation, but it is difficult to bear the migration cost; Low-and middle-income economies have strong migration motivation and can bear the migration cost. According to the statistics of the United Nations, the population of Germany once decreased by about 2.3 million from 2004 to 2011, and then returned to growth due to immigration. Japan's population began to grow negatively in 2009, and Italy's population began to grow negatively in 2016.</p><p><b>Second, changes in demographic structure affect housing prices.</b>Changes in demographic structure, such as the main home buyers aged 20-50 and the size of households, will lead to changes in housing demand. In terms of household size, due to delayed marriage age, increased unmarriage and divorce rates, low fertility rate, extended life expectancy, population aging, population movement, etc., the global household size has shown a trend of miniaturization, which has increased certain housing demand. In 1960-2015, household size fell from 3.33 to 2.54 in the United States and from 4.14 to 2.39 in Japan; Furthermore, in 1980-2015, South Korea dropped from 4.78 to 2.73. In terms of the main home buyers, the population aged 20-49 in the United States is still growing, and Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom have peaked in 1996, 2004 and 2011 respectively. The change of the scale of the main home buyers has a very significant impact on the real estate market.</p><p><b>Third, the population affects housing prices through economic growth.</b>The demographic dividend is an important source of rapid economic growth in many catch-up economies in the past. After the demographic dividend disappears, the economy often turns to medium or low growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32d6b01bca24010940600884b4f55b7e\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373bd33ed383da37d0380f150e39c70b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>3) Monetary illusion brought about by the money supply.</b>From international experience, in the process of economic development, most countries have varying degrees of excessive currency issuance, which leads to changes in asset prices. Generally speaking, higher growth in the broad money supply leads to higher inflation. From 1970 to 2021Q1, the average annual GDP deflator of the 23 economies was 4.3% on average and 4.0% on median, which was not only close to the average annual housing price growth of 6.3% in the 23 economies on an absolute level, but also fluctuated more consistently. For example, in Q1 1970-2021, South Africa's broad money increased by 532.5 times. With the substantial excess of currency, South Africa's nominal GDP increased by 390.2 times, while its real GDP only increased by 1.9 times, the GDP deflator increased by 130.2 times, and house prices increased by 101.6 times. U.S. broad money rose 33.2 times, nominal GDP rose 19.0 times, real GDP rose 2.8 times, the GDP deflator rose 5.2 times, and home prices rose 13 times. However, excessive currency issuance is easy to breed asset price bubbles such as real estate, and in extreme cases, it may even lead to economic crises, such as Japanese real estate bubble in 1990s and US subprime mortgage crisis in 2007.</p><p><b>Due to the faster growth of broad money in emerging economies, house prices in local currency terms have increased more than in advanced economies.</b>According to the data of the World Bank, the average annual growth rate of broad money in nine representative emerging economies including India and Mexico from 2001 to 2020 was 13.7%, which was significantly higher than the 5.3% of six representative developed economies including Britain, the United States and Japan. According to BIS statistics, the average annual growth rate of housing prices in emerging economies from 2010 to 2020 was 6.8%, exceeding the average annual growth rate of housing prices in developed economies of 3.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7906272da5dc3fe1c22ea5aa0f4e99e\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>4) The supply and demand pattern influenced by the housing system.</b>Housing system is a country's real estate market orientation. A good housing system can make housing prices stable for a long time and support the development of real economy. A bad housing system may cause housing prices to soar and plummet, weaken or even hollow out the real economy. The key to the long-term stability of German housing prices lies in the design of its residential-oriented housing system. The three pillars are: neutral and stable monetary policy and housing financial system, a tax system that encourages residents to hold houses for a long time and cracks down on speculation, and a leasing system that protects tenants' rights and interests and encourages long-term renting. At present, Singapore has formed a dual supply system with HDB flats as the main factor and private houses as the supplement. The supply structure presents a stepped distribution of \"low-rent housing-low-cost housing-improved HDB flats-private housing\", with the housing ownership rate exceeding 90%, basically realizing home ownership.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32a2ee39af0d3a9fd9990c2373fa67d0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"646\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>There is a significant difference between the increase of house prices in $1.3 and local currency</b></p><p><b>In terms of US dollars, the increase of house prices in 23 economies changed significantly from 1970 to Q1 of 2021, and there was a certain correlation between the increase of house prices in US dollars and the growth of nominal GDP in US dollars. If an economy's currency overissuance is more serious than that of the United States, the currency will depreciate against the US dollar. Therefore, the sharp rise in local currency house prices does not mean that the US dollar house prices have risen sharply, and it may not necessarily have investment value globally.</b>According to the increase of US dollar house prices, it can be roughly divided into four categories: First, the cumulative increase exceeds 50 times and the average annual growth exceeds 8%, only one in New Zealand. Second, the cumulative growth rate is 25-35 times and the average annual growth rate is 7%-7.5%, with three economies: Britain, the Netherlands and Spain. Third, the cumulative growth rate is 10-20 times and the average annual growth rate is 5%-6.9%, with 14 economies including Ireland, Australia, Norway, Belgium, Italy and Japan. Fourth, the cumulative growth rate is less than 9 times and the average annual growth rate is less than 5%. There are five economies: Germany, Malaysia, South Africa, Thailand and South Korea. Compared with the increase in local currency house prices, the biggest change was in South Africa, where the increase in local currency house prices was as high as 110.5 times from 1970 to 2021Q1, but the increase in US dollar house prices was only 3.8 times. In addition, the house price in local currency in Switzerland increased only 4.8 times, but the house price in US dollar reached 25.9 times; Italian local currency house prices rose 34.7 times, but the increase of US dollar house prices shrank to 12.1 times; Home prices in Germany rose 3.6 times in local currency and 8.8 times in US dollars.</p><p><b>From the correlation coefficient,</b>The correlation coefficient between the growth of US dollar house prices and the growth of US dollar nominal GDP in 23 economies is only 0.20, which is weak. However, if South Korea, where the nominal GDP of US dollar increased by 75.3 times and the house price of US dollar increased by only 0.7 times, and Ireland, where the nominal GDP of US dollar increased by 99.6 times and the house price of US dollar increased by only 28.7 times, are excluded, the correlation coefficient of the remaining 21 economies is 0.77; This shows that from the perspective of global real estate asset allocation, the positive correlation between the growth of US dollar house prices and the growth of US dollar nominal GDP in an economy is generally established. The long-term trend difference of US dollar house prices in different economies can also be decomposed by corresponding factors similar to the previous trend of local currency house prices. The difference is that the excess currency issuance factor of an economy relative to the United States is eliminated through the exchange rate mechanism.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cfaeece0e6f1a8b3cdfe7ae7493e4fc\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"692\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1.4 Global house prices have increased significantly under the epidemic</b></p><p><b>In the past year, house prices in major economies have increased by more than 7% on average, with Turkey rising by 32% and New Zealand rising by more than 20%.</b>According to KnightFrank data, home prices in Turkey rose 32% from Q1 2020 to Q1 2021, topping the list; It was followed by New Zealand, which rose 22%; Luxembourg was third, up 16.6%; Slovakia was fourth, up 15.5%; The U.S. came in fifth with a 13% gain, the biggest since 2005. While the growth rate of major Asian countries is lower than the global average, Singapore has the largest increase in house prices, at 6.1%; Japan, which followed, gained 5.7%; China's house prices rose 4.3%.</p><p><b>The large increase in housing prices during the epidemic period was due to the implementation of quantitative easing policies in various countries and the release of improvement demand due to the backlog of the epidemic.</b>1) From the perspective of monetary policy, in order to stimulate economic recovery under the impact of the epidemic, central banks of various countries implement quantitative easing policies. On the one hand, under the quantitative easing policy, the liquidity in the market has increased, and it has reached the hands of the people through enterprise bail-out funds and unemployment benefits. At the same time, under the loose monetary policy, mortgage interest rates have been lowered. For example, the 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate anchored by the American Mortgage Banking Association has reached a record low of 3.08%. On the other hand, the currency depreciation brought by the quantitative easing policy makes people eager to find value-preserving assets, and real estate with value-preserving and appreciation attributes has become the first choice for investment. 2) From the perspective of demand, the backlog of improvement demand during the epidemic will be released after the epidemic has been controlled to some extent. Secondly, \"black swan\" events such as the epidemic have made more and more investors try to reduce risks by diversifying assets, and owning a second home has become the choice of more high-net-worth individuals. 3) From the perspective of supply, the loose monetary policy has caused a general rise in asset prices, and the rise in raw material prices has increased the construction cost. At the same time, the epidemic has led to a shortage of workers, which has aggravated the tight supply of raw materials, further pushed up raw material prices, and thus pushed up housing prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/834288b9b8894d0402b3c3f3f5cd3a38\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>2 Which region has the biggest increase in house prices in a country: the metropolitan area with population inflow</p><p><b>2.1 UK: London house prices have risen 113 times in 53 years, with Inner London rising even more</b></p><p>There are three areas of London: the City of London, Greater London, and the London Metropolitan Area. London City is the City of London, with a small area. In the general sense, London refers to the Greater London area, including 319 square kilometers of Inner London and 1,254 square kilometers of Outer London, with a total land area of 1,573 square kilometers, accounting for 0.6% of the UK; The London metropolitan area consists of Greater London and surrounding areas. Due to the prominent diseases in big cities caused by urban planning problems, the British government once controlled the population of London, especially inner London, relocated industries after World War II, and built a large number of new cities. From 1941 to 1991, the annual population of London dropped from 8.62 million to 6.39 million, and then rose to 8.82 million in 2017, currently accounting for 13.4% of the British population. However, under the influence of economy, the population of the surrounding areas of London has been agglomerated for a long time. From 1931 to 2001, the population of southeast England increased from less than 13 million to more than 18 million, accounting for 27.5% to 31.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02ca4c76a629e8fce4ea2dff163fba65\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>In the past 53 years, house prices in Greater London have increased by 113 times, far exceeding the average house price increase in Britain and England (71 and 81 times) and the nominal GDP increase in Britain (51 times).</b>According to the data of the UK National Statistics Office (ONS), in the UK, from 1968 to March 2021, the house price in Greater London increased from 0.4,400 pounds per unit to 0.500,000 pounds per unit, in England from 0.3,400 pounds per unit to 275,000 pounds per unit, and nationally from 0.3,600 pounds per unit to 256,000 pounds per unit. The house price in London increased by 113 times, which was higher than 71 times nationally and 81 times in England. In the same period (1967-2020), the nominal GDP of the UK increased by 50.7 times, with an average annual growth of 7.7%, and the increase of house prices obviously outperformed the nominal GDP growth.</p><p><b>In stages, the house price increase in Greater London was very close to that in England and the United Kingdom before 1994, but the volatility increased obviously after 1995, especially after the global financial crisis in 2008.</b>From 1968 to 1994, house prices in Greater London, England and Britain increased by 15.0 times, 14.7 times and 14.6 times respectively, with small differences; However, until March 2018, the increase of house prices was obviously differentiated, which was 5.3 times, 3.5 times and 3 times respectively. Affected by the 2008 financial crisis, house prices in Greater London, England and the United Kingdom fell by 16.6%, 15.0% and 14.9% year-on-year in April 2009; After that, under the background of monetary stimulus quantitative easing, house prices gradually picked up, with average annual growth rates of 7.5%, 4.5% and 4.1% respectively by March 2018.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65731004c8f9a4f7c0bc36cc5cfb211a\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>From the interior of the London metropolitan area, the house price in Greater London has increased by more than 6.5 times in the past 26 years, ranking first in the region, and the increase in the surrounding areas is less than 6.0%.</b>In the three years from January 1995 to 2021, Greater London house prices increased by 6.7 times, while the surrounding areas of Kent, Hertfordshire, Essex, Windsor and Maidenhead, Surrey saw increases of 5.5, 5.7, 5.5, 5.2 and 5.4 times respectively, with Greater London house price increases significantly higher than the surrounding areas. In addition, house prices in Birmingham, the second largest city in Britain, rose only 4.6 times during this period, significantly lower than the increase in London and surrounding areas.</p><p><b>From the inside of Greater London, in the past 26 years, the house price in the core area of London has increased by more than 7 times, and the house price in outside London has increased by less than 6.5 times.</b>Inner London house prices rose 7.6 times from £78,300/unit to £594,500/unit between January 1995 and March 2021; Outer London house prices rose 6.2 times from £73,000/unit to £451,000/unit. At present, the most expensive house prices in London are Kensington and Chelsea (£1,2272 million/unit), followed by City of Westminster (£936,800/unit), up 6.7 times and 7.0 times respectively from January 1995.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d53232626f2d5e64d75a676f520e515f\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"692\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1e929dc297e8b1905401a6ed5999242\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2.2 France: Housing prices in Paris have risen 44 times in 55 years, exceeding the surrounding areas</b></p><p>Paris has three areas: Paris City (or Little Paris), Greater Paris (including three suburban provinces), and Paris Region (including four outer suburban provinces, also known as \"Ile-de-France\"), with land areas of 105, 761 and 12001 square kilometers respectively, of which the land area of Paris Region accounts for 1.8% of France. With industrial agglomeration, the French population has continued to gather in Paris and surrounding areas for a long time. From 1876 to 2014, the population of Paris basically increased from 3.32 million to 12.03 million, the proportion of the population increased from 8.6% to 18.8%, and the economic share increased from 28.4% in 1990 to 30.4% in 2014. During this period, for the purpose of controlling the population to cure metropolitan diseases, the city of Paris declined for a long time. From 1931 to 1999, it continued to drop from 2.89 million to 2.13 million, and then rose to 2.18 million in 2018.</p><p><b>In the past 55 years, the house price in Paris has increased by 43.7 times in 55 years, obviously exceeding the average house price increase in France (26.6 times) and the nominal GDP increase in France (29.5 times). Its average annual growth rates are 7.2%, 6.2% and 6.4% respectively.</b>Before that, from 1945 to 1965, due to the influence of postwar reconstruction, baby boom and excessive currency issuance, house prices in Paris and France soared 54.1 and 38.3 times respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 22.2% and 20.1%, but they still lagged behind the average annual growth rate of nominal GDP (51.2% from 1950 to 1965).</p><p><b>Looking at it in stages,</b>The trend of house prices in Paris after 1966 can be divided into four stages: 1) 1966-1990, the period of rapid house price increase. During this period, house prices in Paris, French house prices and French nominal GDP increased by 10.7%, 9.3% and 10.6% annually. 2) 1992-1997, the period of house price decline. Due to the vigorous real estate speculation and the excessive increase of house prices in Paris from 1985 to 1990 (including the increase of more than 17% for four consecutive years from 1987 to 1990), house prices in Paris began to fall sharply. During this period, the average annual growth of house prices in Paris, French house prices and French nominal GDP was-6.1%, -0.4% and 3.8%. By the end of 1997, the house prices in Paris fell miserably to 69% in 1991. 3) 1998-2015, period of fluctuating growth. During this period, house prices in Paris, French house prices and French nominal GDP increased by 7.2%, 5.0% and 3.0% annually. Among them, house prices in Paris fell continuously from 2013 to 2015. However, after 2015, house prices in Paris ushered in a wave of large increases.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c239d397cf1aeafa440025897669e859\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The house price increase in Paris ranked first in the Paris region. From Q4, 1997 to Q1, 2021, the house price increase in Paris exceeded 3.5 times, which was significantly higher than that in the three suburban provinces and the four outer suburban provinces.</b>Because the land area of Paris is small (105 square kilometers), which is slightly larger than the sum of the area of Dongcheng District and Xicheng District of Beijing (93 square kilometers), we no longer analyze the house price in Paris, but take Paris as the core area of Paris region, and analyze the trend difference between its house price and other areas of Paris region. According to the data of the French Bureau of Statistics (INSEE), from Q4 1997 to Q1 2021, house prices in Paris increased by 3.7 times, significantly exceeding the 2.5 times of the three suburban provinces and the 1.6 times of the four outer suburban provinces. During this period, France's nominal GDP increased by 0.8 times. The three suburban provinces of Hauts de Seine, Seine St Denis and Val de Marne rose by 2.6 times, 2.5 times and 2.4 times respectively. The four outer suburban provinces of Yvelines, Val d'Oise, Seine and Marne and Essonne increased house prices by 1.8 times, 1.7 times, 1.5 times and 1.5 times respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef31ec3f0316c99a2e4b77fd99eac928\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"678\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2.3 United States: New York City House Prices Increase 9-fold in 46 Years, Queens Outperforms</b></p><p>New York has multiple meanings: New York City, New York Metropolitan Area, New York United Statistical Area, etc. Among them, New York City has a land area of 789 square kilometers and a population of 8.55 million in 2015; The New York-Newark-Jersey City Metropolitan Statistical Area (NY-NJ-PAMSA) covers an Area of approximately 17,000 square kilometers and had a population of 20.18 million in 2015; The New York-Newark Combined Statistical Area comprises the New York metropolitan Area and adjacent metropolitan areas, with a population of 23.72 million in 2015. From the perspective of population, due to the shift of the economic center of gravity of the United States to the west coast and the south coast, although the population of New York area basically continued to grow from 1950 to 2015, the increase rate of 84% was far smaller than that of Los Angeles area of 328%, which caused the population proportion of New York area to decline significantly. During this period, due to population suburbanization and manufacturing decline, the population of New York City decreased from 7.89 million to 7.02 million from 1950 to 1980; Later, due to urban renewal and industrial transformation and upgrading, the population rose to 8.55 million in 2015, and the population dropped slightly to 8.42 million in 2019.</p><p><b>In the past 46 years, housing prices in New York City have increased by more than 9 times, which is higher than the average level in the United States, but lower than the price increase around New York City and Los Angeles area.</b>According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), from 1975 to Q1 2021, house prices in the United States, New York City, New York-Jersey-White Plains Subdivision (one of the New York Metropolitan Area Subdivision) (Q1 1976-2021), and Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale Subdivision (one of the Los Angeles Metropolitan Area Subdivision) increased by 8.1 times, 9.9 times, 12.9 times, and 19.7 times, respectively, with average annual growth rates of 4.9%, 5.3%, 6.0%, and 6.8%, respectively. Housing prices in the New York-Jersey-White Plains subdivision, although not as high as those in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale subdivision, are still significantly higher than the U.S. average. In addition, during this period, the nominal GDP of the United States increased by 13.7 times, with an average annual growth of 6.0%, and the M2 increased by 20.5 times, with an average annual growth of 6.9%. This means that New York City home prices underperformed U.S. nominal GDP and M2 over the same period, while the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale subdivision outperformed U.S. nominal GDP and approached M2.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3365bc98f3d57e2abfa2e44b8cd57d69\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22a2c22f165e582eba667aa4ba1eed6f\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>In the New York metropolitan area, house prices in New York subdivisions have increased more than four times in the past 35 years, ranking second among the four major subdivisions in New York metropolitan area.</b>In addition to the New York-Jersey City-White Plains subdivision, the New York metro area includes three subdivisions: NassauCounty – Suffolk County, Dutchess County – Putnam County, and Newark. The trend of house prices in the four major subdivisions is basically the same, among which the Nassau County – Suffolk County subdivision rose by 4.3 times from 1986 to Q1 of 2021, with an average annual increase of 4.9%, ranking first; The New York-Jersey City-White Plains subdivision rose 4.1 times, with an average annual increase of 4.6 percent, ranking second; The Newark Subdivision and the DutchessCounty-Putnam County Subdivision (Q1 1986-2018) increased 3.4x and 2.6x, respectively, with average annual increases of 4.3% and 4.6%, respectively.</p><p><b>Inside New York City, Manhattan home prices have nearly tripled in the past 30 years, which is higher than New York City levels.</b>In Q1 1991-2021, house prices in Manhattan, New York City increased by 1.9 times, with an average annual increase of 3.7%, and in Queens (1991-2020), house prices increased by 2.8 times, with an average annual increase of 4.7%. During this period, house prices in New York City and New York subdivision increased by 1.8 times and 2.0 times, respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d564c533cc7c696dd75bfb7fc8caa8b\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2.4 Japan: Six core cities have risen 210 times in 36 years</b></p><p>Tokyo has three ranges: Tokyo Metropolitan Area, Tokyo Metropolitan, which includes the Tokyo Circle of Chiba, Saitama, and Kanagawa Prefectures, with land areas of 627, 2188, and 13,558 square kilometers, respectively. Tokyo Circle accounts for 3.6% of Japan's land area, with a population of 36.94 million in 2020, accounting for 29.3% of Japan's, and its current GDP accounts for about 1/3 of Japan's.</p><p>Japanese population movement is divided into two stages: Before 1974, the national population basically continued to gather in the three poles of Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya circles. From 1884 to 1973, apart from the impact of the war, the population of Tokyo circle increased from 4.06 million to 26.07 million, accounting for 23.9% from 10.8%; The population of Osaka increased from 3.92 million to 16.36 million, accounting for 15.0% from 10.5%; The population of Nagoya Circle increased from 3.11 million to 9.18 million, accounting for 8.4% from 8.3%. After that, it turned to one pole concentration in Tokyo circle, while the population inflow and outflow in Nagoya circle were basically balanced, and the long-term net outflow in Osaka circle; By 2016, the population of Tokyo Circle, Osaka Circle and Nagoya Circle was 36.29, 18.31 and 11.34 million, accounting for 28.6%, 14.4% and 8.9% respectively. During this period, the population growth of Osaka Circle and Nagoya Circle was mainly due to natural growth. The population growth of Tokyo was stagnant from 1970 to 1997, mainly due to the industrial transfer and population migration in Tokyo metropolitan area, but the population of Tokyo non-metropolitan area and Tokyo circle prefectures increased significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d574585fc9099cc15439a0835d5fb4e1\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Land prices in Japan rose 82 times in the 36 years before the bubble burst, and the increase in six core cities was as high as 210 times.</b>Before the burst of the real estate bubble in 1991, Japanese land prices kept rising except for the adjustment in 1975, rising 82 times from 1955 to 1991, exceeding the nominal GDP increase of 55 times in that period; Among them, land prices in six core cities rose 210 times, and non-core cities rose 78 times. In stages, from 1955 to 1974, land prices in six core cities, including Tokyo, Yokohama, Nagoya, Kyoto, Osaka and Kobe, increased by 40.6 times, with an annual average of 21.7%, while those in other cities increased by 29.6 times, with an annual average of 19.7%. In the same period, nominal GDP increased by 15 times, with an annual average of 15.7%. From 1975 to 1991, land prices in six core cities increased by 4.5 times, with an annual average of 11.2%, while those in other cities increased by 1.7 times, with an annual average of 6.4%. In the same period, nominal GDP increased by 2.2 times, with an annual average of 7.5%.</p><p>In 1975, Japan's house prices continued to rise after the adjustment, mainly due to economic growth and the support of the main home buyers. However, due to the rapid rise in the later period, the sharp decline of the birth population, the peak of the main home buyers in the 1990s and the wrong response of the Japanese government, the real estate bubble burst in the early 1990s. After that, the land price in Japan continued to adjust to 2005. In 2017, the land price in Japan was only 47.1% of the peak. The land price in six core cities has fallen from 1992 to 2005. After experiencing a short-term rise in 2006-2008, it fell again in 2009-2012 due to the global financial crisis, and began to rise up in 2013. In 2017, the land price was only equivalent to 35.3% of the peak in 1991; Due to population outflow, land prices in Japan's non-core cities have been falling since 1992, and in 2017 land prices were equivalent to 47.5% of the peak in 1991.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b856c3f9e7ac62406c37642cf3647a60\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The trend of land price in Tokyo is basically the same as that of Japan as a whole, but the peak was in 1990, one year earlier than that of Japan as a whole, and increased by 3.4 times from 1976 to 1990, with an annual average of 11.1%; After that, it continued to decline until 2005, and in 2014, it was ahead of the national recovery.</b>Housing prices in Tokyo and Osaka peaked in 1990, and land prices in Nagoya and local areas peaked in 1991 and 1992 respectively. From 1976 to the peak of housing prices, land prices in Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya and local areas increased by 3.4, 3.9, 2.0 and 0.9 times, respectively, with an average annual growth of 11.1%, 12.0%, 7.7% and 4.0%, respectively; Especially before the housing price bubble burst, the land price in Tokyo soared 0.95 times from 1987 to 1988, and that in Osaka soared 1.6 times from 1988 to 1990. From 1976 to 1991, Japan's nominal GDP increased by 1.8 times, with an average annual growth of 7.2%, and its M2 increased by 2.7 times, with an average annual growth of 9.0%.</p><p>After the burst of the real estate bubble in the early 1990s, land prices in Tokyo fell sharply to 2005, and began to rise from 2006 to 2008. However, due to the global financial crisis, they began to adjust again in 2009 and began to rise again in 2014. By 2020, land prices in Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya and local areas were only 40.7%, 27.8%, 59.0% and 56.7% of the peak, respectively. The reason why the land price in Osaka circle adjusted the most tragic is that it rose the most before the bubble burst and lacked population support.</p><p><b>The land price in Tokyo metropolitan area peaked in 1988, and it doubled in the five years before the peak. At the same time, it adjusted early and stopped falling quickly. From 2005 to 2020, it rose by more than 25%, the highest in Tokyo circle.</b>Land prices in Tokyo and the Tokyo metropolitan area peaked in 1988, two years earlier than those in Tokyo and three years earlier than those in Japan as a whole. In the first five years of the peak, prices in the Tokyo metropolitan area rose twice, up from 1.8 times in Tokyo and 1.2 times in the Tokyo area. After the peak, house prices in Tokyo and the Tokyo metropolitan area continued to fall until 2005, then fell from 2009 to 2013, and began to pick up in 2014. From 2005 to 2020, housing prices in Tokyo Metropolitan and Tokyo Metropolitan Region increased by 13.3% and 27.5% respectively, while housing prices in Tokyo Metropolitan Non-Region Region remained basically flat, while housing prices in Tokyo Region fell by 1.7%. In 2016, the housing prices of Tokyo metropolitan, district and non-metropolitan districts were equivalent to 42.7%, 46.7% and 38.8% of their peak, respectively, which was very close to the 40.7% of Tokyo circle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/befe38251db05984d0243ae602871331\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a8bad47d30fee108ac396d9cb7ee063\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>3 Conclusion: In the past 51 years, real estate in metropolitan areas has outperformed money printing machines and promoted new housing reform</p><p><b>1) From a global perspective, a country's real estate market depends on: economic growth, demographic change, money supply, and housing system. Among them, the first two are fundamental factors; Over-issuance of currency will lead to a sharp rise in domestic local currency house prices, but not necessarily a sharp rise in US dollar house prices, that is, it may not necessarily have investment value from a global perspective; Housing system is the policy orientation of a country's real estate market.</b></p><p><b>2) Real estate has anti-inflation attributes and can partly share the dividend of economic growth, and real estate in metropolitan areas of most countries is one of the few assets that can outperform money printing machines.</b>From 1970 to Q1 2021, the growth rate of local currency house prices in 23 economies all exceeded the growth rate of their respective CPI to varying degrees. The average annual growth of real house prices in the United Kingdom, New Zealand, Hong Kong, China and Malaysia after deducting CPI can still reach over 3%, while the growth of real house prices in Japan and Germany after deducting CPI is close to 0. Compared with nominal GDP growth in local currencies, in Q1 1970-2021, only a few economies, such as New Zealand, outperformed house prices out of 23 economies, meaning that house prices in most economies can only partially share the economic growth dividend.</p><p><b>In the long run, the excessive issuance of global currency is a common phenomenon. The growth rate of broad money is mostly higher than the nominal GDP growth, and there are not many assets that can outperform money printing machines. Real estate in metropolitan areas of most countries is one of them.</b>From an international perspective, the average annual growth rate of house prices in the UK from 1987 to 2020 was 5.6%, which was higher than the average annual growth rate of nominal GDP of 4.5%, but still lower than the average annual growth rate of broad money of 7.1%; U.S. home prices grew at an average annual rate of 4.5% from 1960 to 2020, while nominal GDP and M2 grew at an average annual rate of 6.3% and 7.1%, respectively. Looking at metropolitan areas, in the United States, the New York-Jersey-White Plains subdivision recorded an average annual price growth of 5.8% from 1975 to 2020, down from 6.8% of M2 in the same period and the same as 5.8% of GDP. In China, the average annual growth rate of the broad money supply M2 in the past 40 years has been 15%. Since 1998, the average annual compound growth rate of the average sales price of newly-built houses in China has reached 7.72%, which is nearly 8 percentage points lower than the growth rate of M2 in the same period, while the house prices in first-tier cities are basically the same as the growth rate of M2.</p><p><b>3) From the perspective of global asset allocation, some emerging economies with great economic growth potential, especially their core cities, have great investment potential.</b>Generally speaking, emerging economies have serious excessive currency issuance, and house prices have increased greatly. However, from the perspective of global asset allocation, investors are concerned about the increase of US dollar house prices, that is, excluding the exchange rate change caused by the relative excessive currency issuance, while the increase of US dollar house prices is mainly related to the nominal GDP growth of US dollar, which can decompose economic growth, population change, housing system and other factors. Some emerging economies with great economic growth potential may have a \"golden age\" similar to the past of China's real estate market in the future, but they need to pay attention to political, legal and other related risks.</p><p><b>4) Build a residential-oriented new housing system in China.</b>The development of China's real estate in 20 years shows that short-term regulation cannot solve the fundamental contradiction of long-term imbalance between supply and demand, and deepening the reform of housing system is the fundamental to realize the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.</p><p><b>First, reform the \"linkage between people and land\" and optimize land supply.</b>At present, the \"people-land linkage\" is linked between the number of settled agricultural migrants and the supply of construction land, which can't solve the contradiction between the population inflow in hot cities and the shortage of housing supply. In the future, the new permanent population should be linked with land supply, and the balance of cultivated land occupation and compensation across provinces should be linked with the increase or decrease of urban and rural land use, such as the land sales index in northeast and west regions, which can effectively solve the problem of massive waste of land use index in northeast and west regions. Strictly implement the principle of \"linking the inventory elimination cycle with land supply\", and optimize the current land supply mode.</p><p><b>The second is to maintain the long-term stability of monetary policy and real estate financial policy.</b>Implement a long-term and stable housing credit financial policy to stabilize the expectations of buyers, support the demand for rigid and improved housing purchases, and at the same time curb speculative demand. Support the reasonable financing needs of housing enterprises, standardize the use of financing, and prevent excessive financing.</p><p><b>The third is to transform the housing supply structure and enrich the supply subjects.</b>At present, China's housing supply system emphasizes sales over leasing, and a multi-subject supply-oriented housing system has not yet been established. In the future, the main supplier will change from developers to the government, developers, leasing agencies, long-term leasing companies and other suppliers; The supply form will also shift from commercial housing to commercial housing, rental housing, shared property housing and other categories. However, the exploration of housing supply structure and the introduction of policies must be adapted to local conditions, and cities with net population outflow need to be vigilant against blindly following the trend.</p><p><b>Fourth, steadily promote the pilot project of property tax.</b>With the end of the era of large-scale development and the reduction of land transfer fees and tax revenue in transactions in the era of stock housing, it is the general trend to introduce property tax. From international experience, property tax is usually regarded as an important and stable source of local fiscal revenue by mature market economies. The general principle of property tax reform is \"legislation first, full authorization and step-by-step promotion\". \"Legislation first\" means legislation first and then levy; \"Full authorization\" means authorizing all localities to pilot measures according to local conditions, not one size fits all. According to international experience, the property tax itself is the local main tax; \"Distributed advancement\" means active and steady advancement, and it is necessary to strive for mature plans and do a good job in guiding social expectations.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/481029\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3c5822c22b6cfd1d0ae2625b7bc085e","relate_stocks":{"515060":"房地产ETF华夏","DRN":"房地产指数ETF-Direxion三倍做多","ARL":"美国房地产投资"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/481029","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1118683392","content_text":"作者：任泽平团队\n导读\n我们提出了业内广为流传的分析框架：房地产长期看人口、中期看土地、短期看金融。本篇放眼全球房价走势，考察驱动不同经济体和主要大都市圈房价走势的因素及规律。\n不同经济体本币房价长期走势差异可解释为四方面：经济增长带来的收入效应、人口总量与结构变动引起的人口效应、货币供应带来的货币幻觉、住房制度影响的供求格局。\n近51年，23个经济体房价平均累计上涨29.6倍、年均增长超6%。依据房价涨幅大小，可分为三类：一是南非、新西兰等4个经济体房价累计涨幅在60倍以上和年均增长8.5%-10%；二是房价累计涨幅在5-50倍之间和年均增长5.5%-8%之间的，有爱尔兰、澳大利亚等14个经济体；三是房价累计涨幅在5倍以内和年均增长低于4%的以内的，有泰国、瑞士等5个经济体。\n疫情期间房价涨幅较大，其源于各国实施量化宽松政策、疫情积压的改善需求释放等。近一年主要经济体房价平均上涨超7%，土耳其上涨32%，新西兰上涨22%，而亚洲主要国家涨幅低于全球平均，新加坡房价涨幅最大，为6.1%；中国房价涨幅为4.3%。\n一国内部人口流入的大都市圈房价涨幅最大。伦敦房价53年上涨113倍，内伦敦涨幅更大；日本地价在泡沫破灭前36年上涨82倍，六个核心城市涨幅更是高达210倍。\n我们呼吁推动新一轮房改（新房改）迫在眉睫，以人地挂钩、控制货币和房产税为核心加快构建房地产长效机制，促进房地产市场长期平稳健康发展，还有最后十年时间窗口。\n正文\n1  不同经济体房价涨幅差异：经济增长、人口变化、货币供应、住房制度\n1.1 近51年23个经济体房价走势差异明显\n1970年Q1-2021年Q1，23个经济体房价平均累计上涨29.6倍、年均增长超6%。依据房价涨幅大小，可分为三类：\n一是南非、新西兰、西班牙、英国等4个经济体房价累计涨幅在60倍以上和年均增长8.5%-10%。南非、新西兰房价累计涨幅分别高达110.5倍、86.9倍、年均增长分别为9.7%、9.2%，分别位居23个经济体中第一、第二；英国房价累计涨幅62.3倍，年均增长8.6%，位居23经济体中第三；西班牙1979年Q1-2021年Q1房价累计涨幅60.2倍，年均增长8.6%。\n二是房价累计涨幅在5-50倍之间和年均增长5.5%-8%之间的，有爱尔兰、澳大利亚、中国香港、挪威、意大利、加拿大、瑞典、法国、丹麦、荷兰、芬兰、马来西亚、美国、比利时14个经济体。爱尔兰、澳大利亚房价累计上涨48.1倍、47.3倍，年均增长均为7.9%；中国香港1979年Q1-2021年Q1年房价累计上涨19.9倍，年均增长7.7%；马来西亚1988年Q1-2021年Q1年房价累计上涨5.1倍，年均增长5.6%；其他10国涨幅在15-40倍之间，年均增速在5.5%-7.5%。\n三是房价累计涨幅在5倍以内和年均增长低于4%的以内的，有泰国、瑞士、韩国、德国、日本5个经济体。其中泰国1991Q1-2021Q1年上涨1.8倍，年均增长3.5%；韩国1975年Q1-2021年Q1房价累计上涨3.2倍、年均增长3.2%;1970年Q1-2021年Q1，瑞士、德国、日本房价累计上涨4.8倍、3.6倍、2.7倍，年均增长3.5%、3.0%、2.6%。\n\n\n随着经济金融全球化深入推进，全球房价走势联动性逐渐增强。比如，1980年代中后期北欧四国房价下跌，1990年代初日韩房价下跌，1997年东南亚房价下跌，2007年全球房地产下跌。从房价走势看，近51年23个经济体可大致分为四类：\n一是房价基本持续上行、期间调整幅度小的经济体，有澳大利亚、新西兰、加拿大、法国等4个。1970年以来上述4国任何一次下行周期中累计下跌幅度均未超过9%。其中，澳大利亚、新西兰、加拿大等3国未曾出现连续两年下跌的情况；法国在1992-1995年、2008-2009年、2011-2015年三次明显调整，但三次累计跌幅均未曾超过7%。\n二是房价曾大幅下挫但后期上行超过之前高点的经济体，有英国、美国、瑞士、荷兰、南非、挪威、中国香港、马来西亚、泰国等14个。比如，荷兰房价在1979-1982年暴跌近30%、2008-2013年大跌超19%，南非房价在1984-1986年下跌11%，芬兰房价在1990-1992年暴跌37%，瑞士房价在1990-1998大跌22%，马来西亚、泰国分别在1997-1998、1998-1999年累计下跌均超过11%，中国香港在1998-2003年累计暴跌超60%，美国房价在2007-2011年大跌超30%，英国房价在1990-1992年下跌近11%、2008-2009年下跌超13%。上述经济体房价在大幅下跌后继续向上，现均已超过之前高点。\n三是前期房价泡沫破灭、至今仍不及高点的经济体，有日本、西班牙、爱尔兰、意大利等4个。虽然时代和国别不同，但历次房地产泡沫堆积无一例外受到流动性过剩和低利率的刺激，而历次房地产泡沫崩溃则都跟货币收紧和加息有关。日本、西班牙、爱尔兰、意大利房价分别在1990、2007、2007、2008年见顶，其中前三个国家房价近几年稍有反弹，2020年上述四国房价仅分别相当于峰值的63.4%、84.7%、84.8%、83.2%。\n四是房价走势基本平稳、涨幅总体较小的经济体，只有德国1个。1970年以来德国房价有三次比较大的上涨周期：1971-1981年累计上涨近1.8倍，1987-1994年累计上涨35.1%，2009-2021年Q1累计上涨67.6%；而在任何一个下行周期中累计下跌未曾超过10%。\n\n\n\n\n1.2 本币房价长期走势与经济增长、人口变化、货币供应及住房制度相关\n不同经济体本币房价长期走势差异可解释为四方面：经济增长带来的收入效应、人口总量与结构变动引起的人口效应、货币供应带来的货币幻觉、住房制度影响的供求格局。房地产兼具消费品属性（居住需求，包括刚需和改善性需求）和金融属性（投资投机需求，并可以加杠杆），因而房价不仅取决于供需（人口及居民收入、土地供给），还与货币供应密切相关。从全球房地产市场运行经验看，在无争、瘟疫、自然灾害、经济金融危机等冲击的情况下，一国房价随着经济发展而长期上涨。\n1970-2021年Q1，23个经济体本币房价年均增速、本币名义GDP增速分别为6.3%、7.5%，二者较为接近、且相关系数为0.52；如剔除泰国、马来西亚，21个经济体的相关系数为0.54；如剔除泰国、马来西亚、韩国、中国香港，19个经济体相关系数达0.87。名义GDP可分解为人均不变价GDP、人口、GDP平减指数，加上影响供求格局的住房制度，四因素可较好地解释不同经济体房价长期走势差异。\n\n1）经济增长带来的收入效应。不变价GDP增长反映剔除价格后的真实经济增长，人均本币不变价GDP增长意味着居民实际购买力提高、增加房产需求。1970-2021年Q1,23个经济体本币不变价年均增长的平均数为2.7%、中位数为2.2%，人均本币不变价年均增速的平均数为1.9%、中位数为1.6%（部分经济体数据计算从有房价数据时开始，西班牙、中国香港、韩国、马来西亚、泰国分别从1971、1979、1975、1988、1991年开始）。其中，韩国人均本币不变价GDP年均增长高达5.3%,爱尔兰、中国香港、马来西亚、泰国年均增长均在2.5%以上，其他经济体多在2%以下，南非仅有0.2%。\n\n2）人口总量与结构变化引起的人口效应。人口对经济体层面房价的影响主要体现在如下三个方面：\n一是人口总量变动影响房价。人口总量变动包括自然增长、跨国（境）人口流动，一般而言，人口规模变化与住房需求呈正比。根据世界银行数据，2019年全球生育率为2.4，其中高收入、中高收入、中低收入、低收入经济体总和生育率分别为1.6、1.8、2.7、4.6，高收入和中高收入生育率已经不足以弥补人口世代更替。但高收入经济体吸引了大量人口跨国流入。1960-2020年，高收入经济体人口净流入规模累计1.4亿，来自中高、中低、低收入经济体的比例分别为26.4%、50.0%、27.1%。中高收入经济体人口生活水平接近高收入经济体，迁移动力不强；低收入经济体人口迁移动力强，但难以承担迁移成本；中低收入经济体人口迁移动力强，且能承担迁移成本。根据联合国统计，德国人口在2004-2011年一度累计减少约230万、后因移民重回增长，日本人口于2009开始负增长，意大利人口从2016年开始负增长。\n二是人口结构变化影响房价。20-50岁主力置业人群、家庭户规模等人口结构变化，将引致住房需求变化。在家庭户规模方面，由于结婚年龄推迟、不婚率和离婚率提高、低生育率、寿命延长、人口老龄化、人口流动等，导致全球家庭户规模呈小型化趋势，这增加了一定的住房需求。1960-2015年，美国家庭户规模从3.33降至2.54人，日本从4.14人降至2.39人；此外，1980-2015年，韩国从4.78人降至2.73人。在主力置业人群方面，美国20-49岁人口规模尚在持续增长，日本、韩国、英国分别已在1996、2004、2011年见顶，主力购房人群的规模变化对房地产市场具有非常显著的影响。\n三是人口通过经济增长影响房价。人口红利是许多追赶经济体过去经济高速增长的重要源泉，在人口红利消失后经济往往转为中速或低速增长。\n\n\n3）货币供应带来的货币幻觉。从国际经验看，在经济发展过程中，绝大部分国家均存在不同程度的货币超发，从而引起资产价格变化。一般而言，广义货币供应增速高则通胀高。1970-2021Q1年，23个经济体年均GDP平减指数平均数为4.3%、中位数为4.0%，不仅在绝对水平上与23个经济体房价年均增长的平均数6.3%较为接近，而且波动较为一致。比如，1970-2021年Q1，南非广义货币增长532.5倍，在货币大幅超发下南非名义GDP增长390.2倍，实际GDP仅增长1.9倍，GDP平减指数增长130.2倍，房价上涨101.6倍；美国广义货币增长33.2倍，名义GDP增长19.0倍，实际GDP上涨2.8倍，GDP平减指数增长5.2倍，房价上涨13倍。但是，货币超发易滋生房地产等资产价格泡沫，极端情况下甚至可能引发经济危机，比如1990年代日本房地产泡沫和2007年美国次贷危机。\n由于新兴经济体广义货币增长较快，因而以本币计算的房价涨幅较发达经济体更大。根据世界银行数据，2001-2020年印度、墨西哥等9个代表性新兴经济体广义货币年均增速平均为13.7%，明显高于英美日等6个代表性发达经济体的5.3%.据BIS统计，2010-2020年新兴经济体房价年均增长6.8%，超过发达经济体3.8%的房价年均增速。\n\n4）住房制度影响的供求格局。住房制度是一国房地产市场导向，一个好的住房制度能使房价长期稳定、支持实体经济发展，一个坏的住房制度可能引发房价暴涨暴跌、削弱甚至掏空实体经济。德国房价之所以长期稳定，关键在于其居住导向的住房制度设计，三大支柱分别为：中性稳健的货币政策与住房金融体系，鼓励居民长期持有住房、打击投机的税收制度，保护租户权益、鼓励长期租房的租赁制度。新加坡目前形成以组屋为主、私宅为辅的二元化供应体系，供给结构呈现“廉租房-廉价房-改善型组屋-私宅”的阶梯化分布，住房自有率超过90%，基本实现居者有其屋。\n\n1.3 美元房价涨幅与本币房价涨幅差异明显\n以美元计，1970-2021年Q1，23个经济体房价涨幅发生明显变化，且美元房价涨幅与美元名义GDP增长存在一定相关性。如果一经济体货币超发较美国严重，则货币将对美元贬值，因此本币房价大幅上涨并不意味着美元房价大幅上涨，在全球来看并不一定具备投资价值。依据美元房价涨幅，可大体分为四类：一是累计涨幅超过50倍和年均增长超过8%，仅新西兰1个。二是累计涨幅25-35倍和年均增长7%-7.5%，有英国、荷兰、西班牙3个经济体。三是累计涨幅10-20倍和年均增长5%-6.9%，有爱尔兰、澳大利亚、挪威、比利时、意大利、日本等14个经济体。四是累计涨幅低于9倍和年均增长5%以下，有德国、马来西亚、南非、泰国、韩国5个经济体。与本币房价涨幅相比，变化最大的是南非，1970-2021Q1年本币房价涨幅高达110.5倍，但美元房价涨幅仅3.8倍。此外，瑞士本币房价涨幅仅4.8倍，但美元房价达25.9倍；意大利本币房价上涨34.7倍，但美元房价涨幅缩至12.1倍；德国本币房价上涨3.6倍，美元房价上涨8.8倍。\n从相关系数看，23个经济体美元房价增长与美元名义GDP增长的相关系数仅为0.20，相关性较弱，但如果剔除美元名义GDP增长75.3倍、美元房价上涨仅0.7倍的韩国，以及美元名义GDP增长99.6倍、美元房价上涨仅28.7倍的爱尔兰，剩下21个经济体的相关系数则达0.77；这表明，从全球地产资产配置的角度看，一个经济体美元房价增长与美元名义GDP增长的正相关性大体上是成立的。不同经济体的美元房价长期走势差异也可以类似本币房价上期走势进行相应因素分解，区别在于通过汇率机制剔除了一个经济体相对美国的货币超发因素。\n\n1.4 疫情下的全球房价涨幅明显\n近一年主要经济体房价平均上涨超7%，土耳其上涨32%，新西兰超20%。根据KnightFrank数据，2020年Q1至2021年Q1，土耳其房价上涨32%，高居榜首；紧随其后的新西兰上涨22%；卢森堡位居第三，涨幅为16.6%；斯洛伐克位居第四，涨幅为15.5%；美国位居第五，涨幅为13%，创2005年以来最大涨幅。而亚洲主要国家涨幅低于全球平均，新加坡房价涨幅最大，为6.1%；紧随其后的日本上涨5.7%；中国房价涨幅为4.3%。\n疫情期间房价涨幅较大源于各国实施量化宽松政策、疫情积压的改善需求释放等。1）从货币政策看，为刺激疫情冲击下的经济复苏，各国央行实施量化宽松政策。一方面，量化宽松政策下市场上的流动资金变多，通过企业纾困资金、失业救济金等方式到了民众手中。同时在宽松货币政策下，房贷利率降低，如美国抵押贷款银行协会锚定的30年固定抵押贷款利率达到历史新低值3.08%。另一方面，量化宽松政策带来的货币贬值让民众急于寻找保值资产，具备保值增值属性的房地产成为投资的首选。2)从需求看，疫情期间积压的改善需求，在疫情得到一定控制后释放。其次，疫情这类“黑天鹅”事件让越来越多投资者开始试图通过分散配置资产来降低风险，拥有第二套住房成为更多高净值人士的选择。3)从供给看，宽松货币政策引发资产价格普遍上涨，原材料价格上涨增加建筑成本，同时疫情导致工人短缺，加剧原材料供给紧张，进一步推高原材料价格，进而推动房价上涨。\n\n2  一国内部哪个区域房价涨幅最大：人口流入的大都市圈\n2.1 英国：伦敦房价53年上涨113倍，内伦敦涨幅更大\n伦敦有三个范围：伦敦城（City of London）、大伦敦（Greater London）、伦敦都市区。伦敦城即伦敦金融城、面积很小，一般意义上的伦敦指大伦敦地区，包括319平方公里的内伦敦和1254平方公里的外伦敦，土地面积合计1573平方公里、占英国的0.6%；伦敦都市区则由大伦敦及周边地区组成。由于城市规划问题等造成大城市病突出，英国政府一度控制伦敦特别是内伦敦人口、在二战后外迁产业、大量建设新城，1941-1991年年伦敦人口从862万降至639万，后回升至2017年的882万，当前占英国人口比重为13.4%。但在经济作用下，伦敦周边地区人口长期集聚，1931-2001年英国东南地区人口从不到1300万增至1800多万，占比从27.5%增至31.1%。\n\n近53年大伦敦地区房价涨幅达113倍，远超英国、英格兰地区房价平均涨幅（71、81倍），和英国名义GDP涨幅（51倍）。根据英国国家统计办公室（ONS）数据，在英国，1968年-2021年3月，大伦敦地区房价从0.44万英镑/套上涨至50万英镑/套，英格兰地区从0.34万英镑/套上涨至27.5万英镑/套，全国从0.36万英镑/套上涨至25.6万英镑/套，伦敦地区房价涨幅达113倍，高于全国的71倍和英格兰地区的81倍。而同期（1967-2020年）英国名义GDP上涨50.7倍、年均增长7.7%，房价涨幅明显跑赢名义GDP增长。\n分阶段看，大伦敦与英格兰、英国房价涨幅在1994年之前非常接近，但在1995年后波动明显加大，特别是在2008年全球金融危机之后。1968-1994年，大伦敦、英格兰、英国房价涨幅分别为15.0倍、14.7倍、14.6倍，差异较小；但之后至2018年3月，房价涨幅明显分化，分别为5.3倍、3.5倍、3倍。受2008年金融危机影响，2009年4月大伦敦、英格兰、英国房价同比下跌16.6%、15.0%、14.9%；之后，在货币刺激量化宽松背景下，房价逐渐回升，至2018年3月年均增速分别为7.5%、4.5%、4.1%。\n\n从伦敦都市区内部看，近26年大伦敦房价涨幅超6.5倍，位居地区首位，周边地区涨幅均低于6.0%。1995年1月至2021年3年，大伦敦房价上涨6.7倍，而Kent、Hertfordshire、Essex、Windsor and Maidenhead、Surrey周边地区的涨幅分别为5.5、5.7、5.5、5.2、5.4倍，大伦敦区房价涨幅明显高于周边地区。此外，该时期英国第二大城市伯明翰房价上涨仅4.6倍，明显低于伦敦及周边地区涨幅。\n从大伦敦内部看，近26年内伦敦核心区域房价涨幅超7倍，外伦敦房价涨幅低于6.5倍。1995年1月至2021年3月，内伦敦房价从7.83万英镑/套涨至59.45万英镑/套，上涨7.6倍；外伦敦房价从7.30万英镑/套涨至45.10万英镑/套，上涨6.2倍。当前伦敦房价最贵是Kensington and Chelsea（122.72万英镑/套），其次是City of Westminster（93.68万英镑/套），分别较1995年1月上涨6.7倍、7.0倍。\n\n\n2.2 法国：巴黎市房价55年上涨44倍，涨幅超过周边地区\n巴黎有三个范围：巴黎市（或称小巴黎）、大巴黎（包括近郊3省）、巴黎大区（包括远郊4省，又称“法兰西岛”），土地面积分别为105、761、12001平方公里，其中巴黎大区土地面积占法国的1.8%。随着产业集聚，法国人口长期持续向巴黎及周边地区集聚，1876-2014年巴黎大区人口从332万人基本持续增至1203万人，人口占比从8.6%提升至18.8%，经济份额从1990年的28.4%提升至2014年的30.4%。期间，出于控制人口以治理大城市病的目的，巴黎市有过较长时间减少，1931-1999年从289万持续降至213万，之后回升至2018年的218万。\n近55年巴黎市55年房价上涨43.7倍，明显超过法国房价平均涨幅（26.6倍）、法国名义GDP涨幅（29.5倍），其年均增速分别为7.2%、6.2%、6.4%。在此之前的1945-1965年，受战后重建、婴儿潮及货币大幅超发等影响，巴黎市、法国房价分别暴涨54.1、38.3倍，年均增长22.2%、20.1%，但仍然落后于名义GDP年均增长（1950-1965年，51.2%）。\n分阶段看，1966年之后巴黎市房价走势可分为四个阶段：1）1966-1990年，房价快速上涨期。该时期巴黎市房价、法国房价、法国名义GDP年均增长10.7%、9.3%、10.6%。2）1992-1997年，房价下跌期。由于1985-1990年左右巴黎市房地产投机旺盛、房价涨幅过大（其中1987-1990年连续4年上涨均超过17%），巴黎市房价开始大幅下跌。该时期巴黎市房价、法国房价、法国名义GDP年均增长-6.1%、-0.4%、3.8%，至1997年底巴黎房价惨跌至1991年的69%。3）1998-2015年，波动增长期。该时期巴黎市房价、法国房价、法国名义GDP年均增长7.2%、5.0%、3.0%。其中，2013-2015年巴黎房价连续下跌。但2015年后巴黎房价迎来一波较大涨幅。\n\n巴黎市房价涨幅位居巴黎大区之首，1997年Q4至2021年Q1，巴黎市房价涨幅超3.5倍，明显高于近郊三省和远郊四省。由于巴黎市土地面积较小（105平方公里），稍大于北京市东城区和西城区面积之和（93平方公里），因此我们不再对巴黎市内部房价进行分析，而是将巴黎市作为巴黎大区的核心区域，分析其与巴黎大区其他区域房价的走势差异。根据法国统计局（INSEE）数据，1997年Q4至2021年Q1，巴黎市房价涨幅达3.7倍，明显超过近郊三省的2.5倍、远郊四省的1.6倍，该时期法国名义GDP涨幅为0.8倍。近郊三省Hauts de Seine、Seine St Denis、Val de Marne房价涨幅分别为2.6倍、2.5倍、2.4倍。远郊四省Yvelines、Val d'Oise、Seine and Marne、Essonne房价涨幅分别为1.8倍、1.7倍、1.5倍、1.5倍。\n\n2.3 美国：纽约市房价46年上涨9倍，皇后区表现较优\n纽约有多重涵义：纽约市、纽约都会区、纽约联合统计区等。其中，纽约市土地面积为789平方公里，2015年人口855万；纽约都会区（NewYork-Newark-Jersey City Metropolitan Statistical Area，NY-NJ-PAMSA）面积约1.7万平方公里，2015年人口2018万；纽约联合统计区（New York-Newark CombinedStatistical Area）由纽约都会区及毗邻都会区组成，2015年人口2372万。从人口看，由于美国经济重心向西海岸、南海岸偏移，1950-2015年纽约地区人口虽基本持续增长，但增幅84%远小于洛杉矶地区的328%，这使得纽约地区的人口占比明显下滑。期间，因人口郊区化及制造业衰退，纽约市人口在1950-1980年从789万减至702万；后因城市更新及产业转型升级等，回升至2015年的855万，2019年人口小幅下降到842万人。\n近46年纽约市房价上涨超9倍，高于美国平均水平，但低于纽约市周边及洛杉矶地区房价涨幅。根据美国联邦住房金融局（FHFA）统计，1975-2021年Q1，美国、纽约市、纽约-泽西-白原分区（纽约都会区分区之一）（1976-2021年Q1）、洛杉矶-长滩-格伦代尔分区（洛杉矶都会区分区之一）房价分别上涨8.1倍、9.9倍、12.9倍、19.7倍，年均增速分别为4.9%、5.3%、6.0%、6.8%。纽约-泽西-白原分区房价涨幅虽不及洛杉矶-长滩-格伦代尔分区，但仍显著高于美国平均水平。此外，该时期美国名义GDP上涨13.7倍、年均增长6.0%，M2增长20.5倍、年均增长6.9%。这意味着，纽约市房价跑输同时期美国名义GDP和M2，而洛杉矶-长滩-格伦代尔分区跑赢美国名义GDP，接近M2。\n\n\n在纽约都会区内部，纽约分区房价近35年上涨超4倍，在纽约都会区四大分区中位居第二。除纽约-泽西市-白原分区外，纽约都会区还包括NassauCounty–Suffolk County、Dutchess County-Putnam County、Newark三个分区。四大分区房价走势基本一致，其中1986年-2021年Q1,Nassau County–Suffolk County分区上涨4.3倍，年均涨幅为4.9%，位居第一；纽约-泽西市-白原分区上涨4.1倍，年均涨幅为4.6%，位居第二；Newark分区和DutchessCounty-Putnam County分区（1986-2018年Q1）分别上涨3.4倍、2.6倍，年均涨幅分别为4.3%、4.6%。\n在纽约市内部，曼哈顿区近30年房价上涨近2倍，高于纽约市水平。1991-2021年Q1，纽约市曼哈顿区房价上涨1.9倍、年均上涨3.7%，皇后区（1991-2020年）房价上涨2.8倍、年均上涨4.7%，而该时期纽约市和纽约分区房价分别上涨1.8倍、2.0倍，年均增速分别为3.5%、3.8%。\n\n2.4 日本：六个核心城市曾36年上涨210倍\n东京有三个范围：东京都区，东京都，包括千叶县、琦玉县和神奈川县的东京圈，土地面积分别为627、2188、13558平方公里。东京圈土地面积占日本的3.6%，2020年人口3694万，占日本的29.3%，当前地区生产总值约占日本的1/3。\n日本人口流动分为两个阶段：在1974年前，全国人口基本持续向东京圈、大阪圈、名古屋圈三极集聚。1884-1973年，除战争影响外，东京圈人口406万人增至2607万人，占比从10.8%增至23.9%；大阪圈人口从392万人增至1636万人，占比从10.5%增至15.0%；名古屋圈人口从311万人增至918万人，占比从8.3%增至8.4%。之后则转为向东京圈一极集中，而名古屋圈人口流入流出基本平衡、大阪圈长期净流出；到2016年，东京圈、大阪圈、名古屋圈人口分别为3629、1831、1134万，占比分别为28.6%、14.4%、8.9%，该时期大阪圈和名古屋圈人口增长主要源于自然增长。东京都人口在1970-1997年人口增长停滞，主要在于东京都区产业转移、人口外迁，但东京都非都区、东京圈三县人口显著增长。\n\n日本地价在泡沫破灭前36年上涨82倍，六个核心城市涨幅更是高达210倍。在1991年房地产泡沫破灭前，日本地价除1975年调整外保持持续上涨，1955-1991年上涨82倍，超过该时期55倍的名义GDP涨幅；其中，六个核心城市地价上涨210倍，非核心城市上涨78倍。分阶段看，1955-1974年日本东京区部、横滨、名古屋、京都、大阪、神户等六个核心城市地价上涨40.6倍、年均21.7%，其他城市上涨29.6倍、年均19.7%，同期名义GDP上涨15倍、年均15.7%。1975-1991年六个核心城市地价上涨4.5倍、年均11.2%，其他城市上涨1.7倍、年均6.4%，同期名义GDP上涨2.2倍、年均7.5%。\n1975年日本房价调整后还能继续上涨，主要在于经济增长和主力购房人群支撑，但因后期上涨过快、出生人口大幅下滑、1990年代主力置业人群见顶以及日本政府错误应对等，导致1990年代初房地产泡沫破灭。之后日本地价持续调整至2005年，2017年日本地价仅是峰值的47.1%。六个核心城市地价从1992年一直下跌到2005年，在经历了2006-2008年的短期上涨之后，因全球金融危机于2009-2012年再次下跌，2013年开始回升至今，2017年地价仅相当于1991年峰值的35.3%；因人口流出，日本非核心城市地价从1992年一直下跌，2017年地价相当于1991年峰值的47.5%。\n\n东京圈地价走势与日本整体基本一致，但峰值在1990年、较日本整体早1年，1976-1990年上涨3.4倍、年均11.1%；之后持续下跌至2005年，2014年已领先于全国止跌回升。东京圈、大阪圈房价在1990年见顶，名古屋圈和地方地价分别在1991、1992年见顶。1976年至房价峰值期间，东京圈、大阪圈、名古屋圈、地方地价分别上涨3.4、3.9、2.0、0.9倍，分别年均增长11.1%、12.0%、7.7%、4.0%；特别是在房价泡沫破灭前，1987-1988年东京圈地价暴涨0.95倍，1988-1990年大阪圈地价暴涨1.6倍。而在1976-1991年，日本名义GDP上涨1.8倍、年均增长7.2%，M2上涨2.7倍、年均增长9.0%。\n1990年代初房地产泡沫破灭后，东京圈地价大幅下跌至2005年，2006-2008年开始回升，但受全球金融危机影响于2009年开始再次调整，2014年开始再次回升。至2020年，东京圈、大阪圈、名古屋圈、地方地价仅分别是峰值的40.7%、27.8%、59.0%、56.7%。大阪圈地价之所以调整幅度最为惨烈，是因为其在泡沫破灭前上涨幅度最大、又缺乏人口支撑。\n东京都区部地价在1988年见顶，见顶前五年上涨2倍，同时调整早、止跌快,2005-2020年累计上涨超25%、为东京圈内部最高。东京都及东京都区地价在1988年见顶，较东京圈早2年、较日本整体早3年。在见顶的前五年，东京都区部房价上涨2倍，高于东京都的1.8倍和东京圈1.2倍。见顶后，东京都及东京都区部房价持续下跌至2005年，之后2009-2013年下跌，2014年开始回升。2005-2020年，东京都、东京都区部房价分别累计上涨13.3%、27.5%，东京都非区部房价基本持平，东京圈房价累计下跌1.7。2016年，东京都、区部、非都区房价分别相当于其峰值的42.7%、46.7%、38.8%，与东京圈的40.7%非常接近。\n\n\n3   结论：过去51年，大都市圈房产跑赢印钞机，推动新房改\n1）从全球视角看，一国房地产市场取决于：经济增长、人口变化、货币供应、住房制度。其中，前两项是基本面因素；货币超发会导致国内本币房价大涨但不一定美元房价大涨，即在全球视角下不一定具备投资价值；住房制度是一国房地产市场的政策导向。\n2）房地产具有抗通胀属性，能部分分享经济增长红利，并且多数国家的大都市圈房产是能够跑赢印钞机的少数资产之一。1970-2021年Q1，23个经济体本币房价增幅均不同程度超过各自CPI涨幅，英国、新西兰中国香港、马来西亚在扣除CPI后实际房价年均增长仍能达3%以上，而日本、德国扣除CPI后实际房价增长接近于0。与本币名义GDP增长相比，1970-2021年Q1，23个经济体中只有新西兰等少数经济体房价跑赢，这意味着多数经济体房价只能部分分享经济增长红利。\n长期看，全球货币超发是普遍现象，广义货币增速多高于名义GDP增长，能够跑赢印钞机的资产不多，在多数国家大都市圈的房地产是其中之一。从国际看，1987-2020年英国房价年均增长5.6%，虽高于4.5%的名义GDP年均增速，但仍然低于7.1%的广义货币年均增速；1960-2020年美国房价年均增长4.5%，而名义GDP和M2年均增速分别为6.3%、7.1%。从大都市圈看，在美国，1975-2020年，纽约-泽西-白原分区房价年均增长5.8%，低于同期M2的6.8%，与GDP的5.8%相同。在中国，过去四十年广义货币供应量M2年均增速15%，1998年以来全国新建住房销售均价年均复合增速达7.72%，低于同期M2增速近8个百分点，而一线城市房价基本与M2增速持平。\n3）从全球资产配置角度看，一些经济增长潜力大的新兴经济体、特别是其核心城市房地产有较大投资潜力。一般而言，新兴经济体货币超发比较严重，房价涨幅也较大，但从全球资产配置角度看，投资者关注的是美元房价涨幅，即剔除了货币相对超发导致的汇率变化，而美元房价涨幅则主要与美元名义GDP增长相关，可分解经济增长、人口变化、住房制度等因素。一些经济增长潜力大的新兴经济体未来有可能出现类似中国房地产市场过去的“黄金时代”，不过需要注意政治、法律等相关风险。\n4）构建居住导向的中国新住房制度。中国房地产二十年发展表明，短期调控无法解决长期供需不平衡的根本矛盾，深化住房制度改革才是实现房地产市场平稳健康发展的根本。\n一是改革“人地挂钩”，优化土地供应。目前推行的“人地挂钩”为农业转移人口落户数量与建设用地供应量挂钩，并不能解决热点城市人口流入与住房供应紧张之间的矛盾，未来应推行新增常住人口与土地供应挂钩、跨省耕地占补平衡与城乡用地增减挂钩，如东北和西部地区售卖用地指标，可以有效解决目前东北、西部用地指标大量浪费的问题。严格执行“库存去化周期与供地挂钩”原则，优化当前土地供应模式。\n二是保持货币政策和房地产金融政策长期稳定。实行长期稳定的住房信贷金融政策，稳定购房者预期，支持刚需和改善型购房需求，同时抑制投机性需求。支持房企合理融资需求，规范融资用途，防止过度融资。\n三是转变住房供应结构，丰富供应主体。当前中国住房供给体系重销售轻租赁，多元主体供给型的住房体系尚未建立。未来供应主体将从开发商为主转变为政府、开发商、租赁中介公司、长租公司等多方供给；供给形式也将由商品房为主转向商品房、租赁房、共有产权房等多品类。不过，住房供应结构的探索与政策出台须因地制宜，人口净流出城市尤需警惕盲目跟风。\n四是稳步推动房产税试点。随着大开发时代结束，存量房时代下土地出让金减少、交易环节税收减少，推出房产税是大势所趋。从国际经验看，房产税通常被成熟市场经济体作为地方财政收入的重要和稳定来源。房产税改革的总原则是“立法先行、充分授权、分步推进”。“立法先行”是先立法再开征；“充分授权”是授权各地方因地制宜试点、不一刀切，本身房产税按照国际经验就是地方主体税；“分布推进”是积极稳妥推进，要力争方案成熟并做好社会预期引导。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"515060":0.9,"DRN":0.9,"ARL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897883254,"gmtCreate":1628905612478,"gmtModify":1676529889782,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"fly","listText":"fly","text":"fly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/897883254","repostId":"1116529888","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116529888","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628867931,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1116529888?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-13 23:18","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"[Change] The decline of popular Chinese stocks expanded, and shells fell more than 9%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116529888","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月13日，热门中概股跌幅扩大，叮咚买菜跌超10%，贝壳跌超9%，满帮跌超8%，哔哩哔哩跌超6%，滴滴、小牛电动、微博跌超5%，理想汽车、拼多多、百度跌超4%，蔚来、小鹏汽车、好未来跌超3%，新东方、","content":"<p>On August 13th, the decline of popular Chinese stocks expanded,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">ding-dong</a>Grocery shopping fell by more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shell</a>It fell by more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>fell by more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>fell by more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Mavericks Electric</a>Weibo fell by more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>It fell by more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>It fell by more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It fell by more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">Netease</a>It fell by more than 1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/241b92b785e9a0d584dd9f95cecac21b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>[Change] The decline of popular Chinese stocks expanded, and shells 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23:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On August 13th, the decline of popular Chinese stocks expanded,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">ding-dong</a>Grocery shopping fell by more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shell</a>It fell by more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>fell by more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>fell by more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Mavericks Electric</a>Weibo fell by more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>It fell by more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>It fell by more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It fell by more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">Netease</a>It fell by more than 1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/241b92b785e9a0d584dd9f95cecac21b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f3d0c168656a3e6eb4245c3c31ff40","relate_stocks":{"TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","BEKE":"贝壳","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116529888","content_text":"8月13日，热门中概股跌幅扩大，叮咚买菜跌超10%，贝壳跌超9%，满帮跌超8%，哔哩哔哩跌超6%，滴滴、小牛电动、微博跌超5%，理想汽车、拼多多、百度跌超4%，蔚来、小鹏汽车、好未来跌超3%，新东方、阿里巴巴跌超2%，京东、网易跌超1%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BEKE":0.9,"TTTN":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1044,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9007434379,"gmtCreate":1642982565519,"gmtModify":1676533761379,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🤟🤟🚀","listText":"🤟🤟🚀","text":"🤟🤟🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007434379","repostId":"1171166423","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9006830083,"gmtCreate":1641685297165,"gmtModify":1676533638852,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🚀🚀🚀🤟","listText":"🚀🚀🚀🤟","text":"🚀🚀🚀🤟","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9006830083","repostId":"2201217750","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2201217750","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1641601341,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2201217750?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-08 08:22","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Airbus Allegedly Exceeds 2021 Delivery Targets, Analysts Bullish on This Year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2201217750","media":"新浪财经","summary":"　　此前，有报道称，空客超额完成了其2021年全年交付600架飞机的目标，继续领先于主要竞争对手波音公司。　　空客将在下周一市场收盘后公布2021年订单和交付的情况，波音则将在下周二披露相关数据。由于空客有信心超额完成2021年的交付目标，该公司已将重点转向2022年的窄体客机生产率和交付量。　　分析师表示，尽管空客尚未给出2022年的交付展望，但预计将大大高于2021年。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Financial Associated Press (Shanghai, Editor Xia Junxiong) News According to media reports quoting industry sources, Airbus delivered at least 605 aircraft in 2021, and this number may rise to 611 after the final audit results are released.</p><p>It follows reports that Airbus exceeded its full-year 2021 delivery target of 600 aircraft to continue ahead of key rivals<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Corp.</p><p>During COVID, aircraft deliveries are key to generating cash. It is understood that in times of crisis, through a number of workarounds, some airlines were allowed to delay the inclusion of new aircraft in the load sheet, thus partially ensuring delivery, but such agreements must be reviewed by auditors.</p><p>Airbus will announce its 2021 orders and deliveries after the market closes next Monday, while Boeing will disclose relevant data next Tuesday.</p><p>Right now, the aviation industry is trying to recalibrate supply chains weakened by the pandemic. As Airbus is confident it will exceed its 2021 delivery targets, the company has shifted its focus to narrowbody airliner productivity and deliveries in 2022.</p><p>Some planes scheduled for delivery in 2022 are expected to be delayed by months as some components are pressured by logistics bottlenecks and chip shortages, industry insiders said. Sources say deliveries of some aircraft are even at risk of being delayed until 2023.</p><p>Although Airbus has not yet given a delivery outlook for 2022, it is expected to be significantly higher than 2021, analysts said.</p><p>Last October, Airbus raised its production target for the A320 series of narrow-body aircraft to 65 aircraft per month until summer 2023. It is worth mentioning that Airbus once hoped to increase its monthly production to 75 aircraft, but due to its cooperation with France<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0IU8.UK\">Safran</a>Group and other engine manufacturers disagreed and gave up.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Airbus Allegedly Exceeds 2021 Delivery Targets, Analysts Bullish on This Year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAirbus Allegedly Exceeds 2021 Delivery Targets, Analysts Bullish on This Year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-08 08:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Financial Associated Press (Shanghai, Editor Xia Junxiong) News According to media reports quoting industry sources, Airbus delivered at least 605 aircraft in 2021, and this number may rise to 611 after the final audit results are released.</p><p>It follows reports that Airbus exceeded its full-year 2021 delivery target of 600 aircraft to continue ahead of key rivals<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Corp.</p><p>During COVID, aircraft deliveries are key to generating cash. It is understood that in times of crisis, through a number of workarounds, some airlines were allowed to delay the inclusion of new aircraft in the load sheet, thus partially ensuring delivery, but such agreements must be reviewed by auditors.</p><p>Airbus will announce its 2021 orders and deliveries after the market closes next Monday, while Boeing will disclose relevant data next Tuesday.</p><p>Right now, the aviation industry is trying to recalibrate supply chains weakened by the pandemic. As Airbus is confident it will exceed its 2021 delivery targets, the company has shifted its focus to narrowbody airliner productivity and deliveries in 2022.</p><p>Some planes scheduled for delivery in 2022 are expected to be delayed by months as some components are pressured by logistics bottlenecks and chip shortages, industry insiders said. Sources say deliveries of some aircraft are even at risk of being delayed until 2023.</p><p>Although Airbus has not yet given a delivery outlook for 2022, it is expected to be significantly higher than 2021, analysts said.</p><p>Last October, Airbus raised its production target for the A320 series of narrow-body aircraft to 65 aircraft per month until summer 2023. It is worth mentioning that Airbus once hoped to increase its monthly production to 75 aircraft, but due to its cooperation with France<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0IU8.UK\">Safran</a>Group and other engine manufacturers disagreed and gave up.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-01-08/doc-ikyakumx8965029.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80e4ab3e53452f4e5554d2f59e6f6d9b","relate_stocks":{"EADSY":"空中客车集团"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-01-08/doc-ikyakumx8965029.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2201217750","content_text":"财联社（上海，编辑 夏军雄）讯，据媒体援引业内人士消息报道，空中客车公司在2021年交付了至少605架飞机，而在最终审计的结果出炉后，这一数字可能会升至611架。此前，有报道称，空客超额完成了其2021年全年交付600架飞机的目标，继续领先于主要竞争对手波音公司。在新冠疫情期间，飞机交付量是产生现金的关键。据悉，在危机时期，通过一些变通办法，一些航空公司被允许推迟将新飞机计入资产负载表，从而部分确保了交付，但此类协议必须经过审计机构的审核。空客将在下周一市场收盘后公布2021年订单和交付的情况，波音则将在下周二披露相关数据。眼下，航空业正试图重新调整被疫情削弱的供应链。由于空客有信心超额完成2021年的交付目标，该公司已将重点转向2022年的窄体客机生产率和交付量。业内人士称，由于部分零部件受到物流瓶颈和芯片短缺的压力，一些原定于2022年交付的飞机预计要推迟几个月。有消息称，一些飞机的交付时间甚至有推迟到2023年的风险。分析师表示，尽管空客尚未给出2022年的交付展望，但预计将大大高于2021年。去年10月，空客将其A320 系列窄体机生产目标上调至2023年夏季之前每月65架。值得一提的是，空客一度希望将月产量提高至75架，但因与法国赛峰集团等发动机制造商存在分歧而作罢。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EADSY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4833,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9073707600,"gmtCreate":1657415701800,"gmtModify":1676536003862,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/5LE.SI\">$实大控股(5LE.SI)$</a>💪💪😅","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/5LE.SI\">$实大控股(5LE.SI)$</a>💪💪😅","text":"$实大控股(5LE.SI)$💪💪😅","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/69058e6b5c8cdcc080cc6f875dcf79e7","width":"1242","height":"2505"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9073707600","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3092,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830221539,"gmtCreate":1629076748621,"gmtModify":1676529921651,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"gogo","listText":"gogo","text":"gogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830221539","repostId":"2159212005","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2159212005","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1629073072,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2159212005?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-16 08:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Market pressure mounts as everyone stares at Jackson Hole Global Central Banks Annual Meeting","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2159212005","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国银行分析指出，随着杰克逊霍尔年会的到来，利率风险（duration risk）处于历史最高水平。实际无风险利率每发生1个基点的变化，就会转化为标普500指数20-30个基点的波动。","content":"<p>As the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole approaches and investors wait for a possible signal about Taper from the Federal Reserve at that time, markets are plunged into a pre-storm quiet.</p><p>The annual annual meeting of global central banks will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA from August 26th to 28th local time. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell previously confirmed that he would speak at the annual meeting, but did not disclose the topic of the speech. However, according to past experience, the Federal Reserve often throws a \"blockbuster\" at the annual meeting in Jackson Hole.</p><p>At present, the market is generally expected that the Federal Reserve will provide clues on when and how to reduce bond purchases at this annual meeting. However, the recurrence of the epidemic has added variables.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Strategists such as Mark Cabana said in a research report called \"Jackson Hold\" that U.S. Treasury Bond generally tend to rise before the annual meeting, but there is little change in the two weeks after the meeting.</p><p>Cabana et al wrote: \"It wouldn't surprise us if similar price movements occur this year. Powell is expected to deliver a speech on the progress of the U.S. economy since COVID and acknowledge that the FOMC will continue to discuss tapering its quantitative easing, but will not send a signal.\"</p><p><h2>The market stands ready</h2>However, the U.S. debt has entered a battle line, and the trend has been almost flat in the past week.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>The number of customers with a neutral stance on the U.S. Treasury Bond hit the highest level since February, according to customer data.</p><p>On August 6th, after the stronger-than-expected July non-farm payroll data was released, the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield once rebounded from a six-month low, but at present the rebound trend has stopped, and the yield has dropped to around 1.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/262bd64bc95b5fd890b67580c26ea25b\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Unlike the calm of the bond market, U.S. stocks have gained momentum, and European stocks have even risen for ten consecutive years, the longest consecutive rally since 1999. But the more it goes up, the higher the risk of clustering.</p><p>Savita Subramanian, chief equity strategist at Bank of America, warned in a note that interest rate risk (duration risk) is at an all-time high as the annual meeting at Jackson Hole approaches. Interest rate risk refers to the adverse effects of changes in interest rates.</p><p>Of the 20 market indicators the bank tracks, most are already statistically too expensive, Subramanian said. With earnings growth expected to slow significantly in the second half of the year amid inflation and a slowing economy, record interest rate risk means that if interest rates are merely slightly higher, the decline in equities will be painful.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/778e13cf47565508584080338c46b772\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Subramanian noted that a growing number of Fed officials are pressing to taper bond purchases, and that implied market volatility has risen following the strong jobs report.</p><p>In this case, the bank's fair value stress test suggests that every 1 basis point change in the real risk-free rate translates into a 20-30 basis point fluctuation in the S&P 500.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/176effeb1dc70ff8093a1b7267a7ef15\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>So, unlike other banks who rushed to raise their S&P estimates when the market moved higher, Bank of America remains the lone bear, with its forecast for a 10-year yield of 1.9% by the end of the year, up about 55 basis points from now, which would send the S&P 500 down about 15%.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Market pressure mounts as everyone stares at Jackson Hole Global Central Banks Annual Meeting</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarket pressure mounts as everyone stares at Jackson Hole Global Central Banks Annual Meeting\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-16 08:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole approaches and investors wait for a possible signal about Taper from the Federal Reserve at that time, markets are plunged into a pre-storm quiet.</p><p>The annual annual meeting of global central banks will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA from August 26th to 28th local time. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell previously confirmed that he would speak at the annual meeting, but did not disclose the topic of the speech. However, according to past experience, the Federal Reserve often throws a \"blockbuster\" at the annual meeting in Jackson Hole.</p><p>At present, the market is generally expected that the Federal Reserve will provide clues on when and how to reduce bond purchases at this annual meeting. However, the recurrence of the epidemic has added variables.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Strategists such as Mark Cabana said in a research report called \"Jackson Hold\" that U.S. Treasury Bond generally tend to rise before the annual meeting, but there is little change in the two weeks after the meeting.</p><p>Cabana et al wrote: \"It wouldn't surprise us if similar price movements occur this year. Powell is expected to deliver a speech on the progress of the U.S. economy since COVID and acknowledge that the FOMC will continue to discuss tapering its quantitative easing, but will not send a signal.\"</p><p><h2>The market stands ready</h2>However, the U.S. debt has entered a battle line, and the trend has been almost flat in the past week.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>The number of customers with a neutral stance on the U.S. Treasury Bond hit the highest level since February, according to customer data.</p><p>On August 6th, after the stronger-than-expected July non-farm payroll data was released, the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield once rebounded from a six-month low, but at present the rebound trend has stopped, and the yield has dropped to around 1.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/262bd64bc95b5fd890b67580c26ea25b\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Unlike the calm of the bond market, U.S. stocks have gained momentum, and European stocks have even risen for ten consecutive years, the longest consecutive rally since 1999. But the more it goes up, the higher the risk of clustering.</p><p>Savita Subramanian, chief equity strategist at Bank of America, warned in a note that interest rate risk (duration risk) is at an all-time high as the annual meeting at Jackson Hole approaches. Interest rate risk refers to the adverse effects of changes in interest rates.</p><p>Of the 20 market indicators the bank tracks, most are already statistically too expensive, Subramanian said. With earnings growth expected to slow significantly in the second half of the year amid inflation and a slowing economy, record interest rate risk means that if interest rates are merely slightly higher, the decline in equities will be painful.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/778e13cf47565508584080338c46b772\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Subramanian noted that a growing number of Fed officials are pressing to taper bond purchases, and that implied market volatility has risen following the strong jobs report.</p><p>In this case, the bank's fair value stress test suggests that every 1 basis point change in the real risk-free rate translates into a 20-30 basis point fluctuation in the S&P 500.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/176effeb1dc70ff8093a1b7267a7ef15\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>So, unlike other banks who rushed to raise their S&P estimates when the market moved higher, Bank of America remains the lone bear, with its forecast for a 10-year yield of 1.9% by the end of the year, up about 55 basis points from now, which would send the S&P 500 down about 15%.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637968\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","BAC":"美国银行","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".DJI":"道琼斯","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637968","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2159212005","content_text":"随着杰克逊霍尔（Jackson Hole）全球央行年会的临近，投资者静待届时美联储可能给出的关于Taper的信号，市场陷入一种暴风雨来临前的宁静。\n一年一度的全球央行年会将于当地时间8月26日至28日在美国怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔召开。美联储主席鲍威尔此前确认将在年会上发表讲话，但并未透露讲话的主题。不过按以往经验看，美联储常常会在杰克逊霍尔年会上，扔出“重磅炸弹”。\n目前市场普遍预期，美联储会在此次年会上，为缩减债券购买的时点和方式提供线索。不过疫情的反复增添了变数。\n美国银行Mark Cabana等策略师在一份名为\" Jackson Hold \"的研究报告中称，美国国债一般倾向于在年会前上涨，但会后两周内几乎没有变化。\nCabana等写道：“今年如果出现类似的价格变动不会让我们感到意外。预计鲍威尔将发表演讲，阐述新冠疫情以来美国经济的进展，并承认FOMC将继续讨论缩减量化宽松，但不会发出信号。”\n市场严阵以待\n不过美债已经进入了严阵以待，过去一周走势几乎持平。摩根大通的客户数据显示，对美国国债持中性立场的客户数量创2月份以来最高水平。\n8月6日，在强于预期的7月份非农就业数据公布后，10年期美国国债收益率一度从6个月低点反弹，但目前反弹趋势已经停止，收益率降至1.3%左右。\n\n与债市的平静不同，美股势头强劲，欧股甚至连续十年上涨，创1999年以来最长连涨记录。但越是上涨，聚集的风险越高。\n美国银行首席股票策略师Savita Subramanian在一份报告中警告称，随着杰克逊霍尔年会的到来，利率风险（duration risk）处于历史最高水平。利率风险是指因为利率变动而产生的不利影响。\nSubramanian表示，在该行追踪的20个市场指标中，从统计学上来看，大多数都已经太昂贵了。在通胀和经济放缓影响下，预计下半年盈利增长大幅放缓，创纪录的利率风险意味着，如果利率仅仅是小幅上升，股市的下跌都会是令人痛苦的。\n\nSubramanian指出，越来越多的美联储官员正在敦促缩减购债规模，在强劲的就业报告公布后，市场隐含波动率上升了。\n在这种情况下，该行的公允价值压力测试表明，实际无风险利率每发生1个基点的变化，就会转化为标普500指数20-30个基点的波动。\n\n因此，与其他银行在市场走高时匆忙上调标普预期不同，美国银行仍然是唯一的看跌者，它对10年期收益率的预测是年底前达到1.9%，较目前上涨约55个基点，这将导致标普500指数下跌约15%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SHY":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"BAC":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"SH":0.9,"GOVT":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"TLT":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QID":0.9,"IEI":0.9,"IEF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9064016736,"gmtCreate":1652246411025,"gmtModify":1676535061513,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🚀🚀🚀","listText":"🚀🚀🚀","text":"🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9064016736","repostId":"612157298","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":612157298,"gmtCreate":1652245632314,"gmtModify":1676533088961,"author":{"id":"3511237393001450","authorId":"3511237393001450","name":"资本邦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b1331a33968359a10e08ae7160541b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3511237393001450","idStr":"3511237393001450"},"themes":[],"title":"恆生醫療ETF漲幅5.97%， 位居恆生系列產品第一","htmlText":"恆生醫療ETF(513060)再度奪冠，午盤收漲5.75%，位居恆生系列產品第一，成交額破5億，創半日新高，換手率超22%，交投活躍。截至發稿，成份股再鼎醫藥-SB漲17.01%，復星醫藥漲13.5%，科濟藥業-B漲超13%，藥明生物、雲頂新耀-B漲超10%，康方生物-B、時代天使、諾輝健康、上海醫藥漲超9%。","listText":"恆生醫療ETF(513060)再度奪冠，午盤收漲5.75%，位居恆生系列產品第一，成交額破5億，創半日新高，換手率超22%，交投活躍。截至發稿，成份股再鼎醫藥-SB漲17.01%，復星醫藥漲13.5%，科濟藥業-B漲超13%，藥明生物、雲頂新耀-B漲超10%，康方生物-B、時代天使、諾輝健康、上海醫藥漲超9%。","text":"恆生醫療ETF(513060)再度奪冠，午盤收漲5.75%，位居恆生系列產品第一，成交額破5億，創半日新高，換手率超22%，交投活躍。截至發稿，成份股再鼎醫藥-SB漲17.01%，復星醫藥漲13.5%，科濟藥業-B漲超13%，藥明生物、雲頂新耀-B漲超10%，康方生物-B、時代天使、諾輝健康、上海醫藥漲超9%。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/612157298","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2843,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9088066169,"gmtCreate":1650291432659,"gmtModify":1676534688131,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"twitter🚀🚀🚀","listText":"twitter🚀🚀🚀","text":"twitter🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9088066169","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2582,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838405473,"gmtCreate":1629422455092,"gmtModify":1676530034644,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/838405473","repostId":"2160799134","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2160799134","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1629456490,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2160799134?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-20 18:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The running station B is going to fall into the mortal world?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2160799134","media":"海豚投研","summary":"北京时间8月19日港股盘后，哔哩哔哩发布了2021年二季度财报。\n本季B站实现净营收45亿元人民币，同比增长72%，优于市场一致预期的43亿元(彭博)，一如既往的超前期指引(42.5-43.5亿元)。","content":"<p>After the Hong Kong stock market closed on August 19th, Beijing time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Released its second quarter 2021 earnings report.</p><p>This quarter, Station B achieved a net revenue of 4.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72%, which was better than the consensus market expectation of 4.3 billion yuan (Bloomberg), and as always, exceeded the previous guidance (4.25-4.35 billion yuan).</p><p>Looking forward to the third quarter, the management gave a revenue guidance of 5.1 billion yuan to 5.2 billion yuan, with an implied growth rate of about 60%, which is not particularly optimistic. At present, the market's consensus expectation of revenue in the third quarter is 5.17 billion yuan, which falls within the guidance range. In the past, the lower limit of guidance will exceed market expectations. Obviously, this time the third quarter guidance of Station B is slightly conservative.</p><p>The adjusted net loss in the second quarter was 857 million yuan, which was better than the market expectation of 1.084 billion yuan. However, if we look at the operating loss of the main business, the loss of 1.52 billion corresponds to a loss rate of 34%, while the market unanimously expects it to be 28% (the expectations of some head banks have been adjusted, which is similar to the actual loss rate). After dismantling the data, the main expected difference is in operating expenses. (Specific reasons are analyzed below)</p><p>In addition, in other key operating indicators, a quick overview of the difference between the performance and market expectations in the second quarter:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d433a44edd005775f09cd4c0c615873c\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Let's start with the conclusion:</p><p>(1) On the whole, although the revenue end and user data of Station B in the second quarter obviously beat the company's guidance and market expectations.</p><p>However, at the end of July, the company and securities firms made some forward-looking guidance on the specific performance in the second quarter (most of the market thought that forward-looking was not positive, which also triggered a round of stock price decline), and then the market's expectations have been adjusted for some time according to this forward-looking.</p><p>(2) However, judging from the final delivery results, the advertising revenue performance is obviously quite excellent, doubling year-on-year.</p><p>The game collapsed severely. Although the popular new tour was released as scheduled, the overall running water declined instead of increasing. Self-developed games are generally known in Station B, and the pace of foreign investment in game studios did not stop in the second quarter.</p><p>(3) The growth of the user market is ok, but the old problem still shows no signs of improvement: DAU of daily users can't keep up with the growth rate of MAU, which can be said to reflect the decline of overall user stickiness. In the third quarter, we faced a number of regulatory pressures (summer clearing action, minor protection, live broadcast supervision, etc.), and it is expected that user growth may not be as good as the previous summer peak season.</p><p>But Mr. Dolphin believes that the value of B is by no means more than that in the long run. Although there is the initial intention of not doing patch advertising, the current fireworks platform belongs to the nature of private advertising, and the share of Up owners accounts for the absolute majority, and it eats a lot of the potential commercial value that originally belonged to Station B in disguise. In addition, the current user activity (DAU) of Station B and the effect of public domain advertising can't be simply benchmarked with other platforms such as short videos.</p><p>As the old saying goes, the most valuable thing about Station B is the Z-era users who are growing Up and becoming the main force of social consumption on the platform, including Up owners. This part of users has a very high recognition of the value of Station B. Although the high-frequency activity is not as good as other platforms (sticking to users by algorithms), users will regard Station B as a community rather than a tool platform for receiving information.</p><p>In addition, the proportion of Up owners among Bilibili's users has been increasing, reflecting that in addition to a long-term healthy community ecology, more and more UGC content and participants make Bilibili's live broadcast and other reward value-added services more advantageous than the traditional live show broadcast.</p><p>From the perspective of the stock price trend, the current Bilibili has fallen below a reasonable valuation range. Dolphin Jun believes that the current stock price implies a too pessimistic growth expectation for Bilibili in the future. In the short term, the fluctuation of stock price is more affected by the regulatory environment, such as the supervision of cultural content in special years, the protection of minors, and the summer clearing sports.</p><p>In addition, the pressure of video copyright supervision has also had a certain impact on Station B, especially on user growth and user stickiness. It is expected that the performance of the summer peak season in the third quarter of this year will be weaker than that in previous years. Combined with the slightly conservative guidance of the company's management, it may still fluctuate in the short term. Like other pan-entertainment platforms, they can actively intervene after the regulatory environment eases in 1-2 quarters.</p><p>Detailed interpretation of the data of this financial report</p><p>1. Overall performance: Beat guidance and expectations, the third quarter guidance is average</p><p>(1) Income end</p><p>In the second quarter, Bilibili achieved net revenue of 4.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72%, better than the market consensus estimate of 4.3 billion yuan (Bloomberg), and beat the upper limit of management guidance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fafffeeda8d6558a844d6a1b948b3d73\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Among different businesses, the growth rate of advertising revenue continued to be bright. Although new tours with high popularity were released, they still performed poorly, their contribution dropped rapidly year-on-year, and live broadcast and value-added services accelerated.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eeda3cb86c264fb48624bfdedb9a290\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>(2) Profit end</p><p>In the second quarter, the company's gross profit margin decreased by 2ppt quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to the increase of new tour share, content investment (LPL global finals, live broadcast rights of e-sports regular season) and the increase of live broadcast share (the share for anchors has increased to 80%-90%). In addition, since the share of fireworks is mainly given to Up owners, the advertising gross profit margin of Station B will be about 50%, which will be significantly lower than that of other platforms of 70-80%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f887b456f776639212b683aff9b924f5\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Operating loss (GAAP) was RMB1,521 million, exceeding market expectations of RMB1,188 million, mainly due to the increase in marketing expense ratio. In the second quarter, many new tours were released, and the marketing and promotion expenditure was large, with an increase of 6ppt from the previous month. On top of that, employee compensation and equity incentives were still increasing year-over-year during the quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00700190b7ba758d9a73747e491e8e3d\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>2. User scale: not light in the off-season, but there may be pressure on growth in the next third quarter under multi-supervision</p><p>In the second quarter, the number of users increased by 13.8 million compared with the previous quarter, reaching 237 million, which still increased by 38% under last year's high base, higher than the market expectation of 30%.</p><p>Considering the long-term guidance of 400 million users in 2023 previously put forward by Ruidi, the growth rate will be 20% off the previous year, and the growth rate of users this year will exceed 30%, otherwise it will not be able to achieve the goal of breaking 400 million by the end of 2023. (If the reduction is faster, it will put more pressure on growth this year)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc35917db286aafaf7193beaf990f689\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Regarding user stickiness, old questions persist, and while there are seasonal reasons, user stickiness (DAU/MAU) is at a two-year low. The activity of the platform will affect the future realization value space, especially for advertisers, who prefer platforms with high DAU or higher user stickiness.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5dd2285fa12caf9aaf03b668066ab5\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>However, considering that the length of the video itself will have a certain impact on the activity of the platform, the longer the video, the relatively average the activity. From Questmobile's 30-day retention on different video apps. Basically follow the rule of short video> medium video> long video. The company previously proposed that it is still in the stage of expanding the volume and scale, and the long-term guiding target for this indicator is 30%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebbdf10234956d4d225ac1921ef87260\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It is worth mentioning that in the second quarter, Station b made two prominent function page revisions for user stickiness. It is expected that user stickiness will improve to some extent in the third quarter:</p><p>a. One is the vertical screen Mode \"Story Mode\". Similar to short videos, you can directly swipe up and down to switch videos. The main purpose is to increase the user's time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7c6b06f790f5a624b92688c945fc0b0\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>b. The other is a major revision of the function just launched in the summer, highlighting the video creation function to guide more users to convert into Up owners.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb424a1d22c31c3acb454618b7158bf9\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c287fb8a77a7fbab67aa803197b88623\" tg-width=\"612\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>In terms of paying users, this quarter, games, big members and virtual items (such as coins, live gifts, etc.) rewarded paying users due to seasonality. The overall number of paying users was 20.9 million, and the payment penetration rate was basically the same as the previous month, but the downward trend of single-user payment level is still accelerating.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd0b917dd35f1253ab8521cd3e647405\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3fe17f130feaa73981a00fa6fc15c4e\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>3. Advertising business: The prosperity remains unabated and commercialization is steadily advancing</p><p>In the second quarter, the advertising revenue of Station B reached 1.05 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 201%, which greatly exceeded the expectations of the market and Dolphin Jun (150%). With the economic recovery, advertising recovery and the increasingly recognized brand influence of Bilibili will help to continue to promote the advertising boom of Bilibili.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ca8a9f6b713d9dcc736ab2e96a05fa1\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>At present, the share of Station B, a fireworks platform, is only about 6%, and the revenue is confirmed according to the total transaction amount, thus lowering the gross profit margin of the overall advertising.</p><p>Judging from the unique platform tonality of Station B, the future contribution of Fireworks Platform will also be significantly improved. However, for Station B, the contribution of fireworks platform to the overall performance may not be the core consideration of Station B in the short term, but more regards fireworks as a major empowerment tool to maintain the main ecology of Up.</p><p>After all, on Station B, the interaction between Up owners and users is high-frequency, and there are even some emotional connections. It can be regarded as a private domain relationship. Therefore, Up owner is also the core asset of Station B.</p><p>Dolphin guessed that in addition to the need to supplement more content supply, considering the strategic significance of fireworks, this is also the reason why Station b is constantly expanding the scale of Up master.</p><p>4. Games: The self-developed mobile games of Station B are still difficult to play</p><p>In the second quarter, the game revenue of Station B dropped by 1% year-on-year, which can be said to be very ugly compared with its peers (the domestic mobile game market grew by 13% in the second quarter). Although the popular new tours \"Kang Gong Riding Crown Sword\", \"Mobile War Princess\" and \"Sword God Domain\", which the market has high hopes for, have been released in the second quarter, the running water performance is very broken except \"Kang Gong\", which will be able to watch.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b34589edda01d2b4762c3bbb863a908c\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>From third-party data Sensor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWR.AU\">Tower</a>In the second quarter, it was mainly supported by the old tour of the agent and the flowing water of Kangong, while the popularity of Mobile War Princess and Sword God Domain declined too fast. (The black line is the running water of Genshin Impact, and the yellow line is the running water of Kangong)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76120ec81bbd370af36846abdce95ab9\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Perhaps it knows its own ability. On the basis of investing in seven game companies in the first quarter, Station B increased its investment in game projects in the second quarter, with six new investments.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06dfa2b855bb47a37223f2cd28caa0a9\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data Source: IT Orange</p><p>5. Value-added services: excellent performance, it is expected that video coin sharing and live broadcast popularity will bring</p><p>In the second quarter, the value-added business actually performed well, especially in the industry environment of the overall show, with a revenue of 1.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98%, slightly lower than the expectation of the big bank.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17b705a002cb773314ece3532fc873c7\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>The live broadcast and value-added services of Station B include big members, video coin sharing, live reward sharing, etc. From the perspective of the scale of paid users, considering the poor performance of mobile games in the second quarter, and the new regulatory policy faced by Japanese comics in April (first trial and then broadcast), it is expected that it will also have an impact on the income of big members. Therefore, these two parts of income are excluded. Dolphin Jun speculates that the rapid growth of new paid users, overall live broadcast and value-added services should be mainly brought about by the increase of coin sharing and the increase of live broadcast popularity.</p><p>This is different from the traditional live broadcast of the show. At present, the live broadcast of Station B is still in the growth stage of high-speed penetration.</p><p>6. Other businesses such as e-commerce: although the proportion is small, the momentum is stronger</p><p>In the second quarter, e-commerce continued to nearly double its high growth. However, considering that this piece of income (member purchase) is mainly driven by the consumption of core animation users, it currently accounts for a relatively small 13%. However, with the continuous growth of the two-dimensional group among users in the Z era, the future prospects should not be overestimated. Therefore, Dolphin Jun suggested that investors should pay moderate attention to this business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18a80db984627337ad7a5bca90facc7f\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p>","source":"lsy1607051923659","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The running station B is going to fall into the mortal world?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe running station B is going to fall into the mortal world?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">海豚投研</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-20 18:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After the Hong Kong stock market closed on August 19th, Beijing time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Released its second quarter 2021 earnings report.</p><p>This quarter, Station B achieved a net revenue of 4.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72%, which was better than the consensus market expectation of 4.3 billion yuan (Bloomberg), and as always, exceeded the previous guidance (4.25-4.35 billion yuan).</p><p>Looking forward to the third quarter, the management gave a revenue guidance of 5.1 billion yuan to 5.2 billion yuan, with an implied growth rate of about 60%, which is not particularly optimistic. At present, the market's consensus expectation of revenue in the third quarter is 5.17 billion yuan, which falls within the guidance range. In the past, the lower limit of guidance will exceed market expectations. Obviously, this time the third quarter guidance of Station B is slightly conservative.</p><p>The adjusted net loss in the second quarter was 857 million yuan, which was better than the market expectation of 1.084 billion yuan. However, if we look at the operating loss of the main business, the loss of 1.52 billion corresponds to a loss rate of 34%, while the market unanimously expects it to be 28% (the expectations of some head banks have been adjusted, which is similar to the actual loss rate). After dismantling the data, the main expected difference is in operating expenses. (Specific reasons are analyzed below)</p><p>In addition, in other key operating indicators, a quick overview of the difference between the performance and market expectations in the second quarter:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d433a44edd005775f09cd4c0c615873c\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Let's start with the conclusion:</p><p>(1) On the whole, although the revenue end and user data of Station B in the second quarter obviously beat the company's guidance and market expectations.</p><p>However, at the end of July, the company and securities firms made some forward-looking guidance on the specific performance in the second quarter (most of the market thought that forward-looking was not positive, which also triggered a round of stock price decline), and then the market's expectations have been adjusted for some time according to this forward-looking.</p><p>(2) However, judging from the final delivery results, the advertising revenue performance is obviously quite excellent, doubling year-on-year.</p><p>The game collapsed severely. Although the popular new tour was released as scheduled, the overall running water declined instead of increasing. Self-developed games are generally known in Station B, and the pace of foreign investment in game studios did not stop in the second quarter.</p><p>(3) The growth of the user market is ok, but the old problem still shows no signs of improvement: DAU of daily users can't keep up with the growth rate of MAU, which can be said to reflect the decline of overall user stickiness. In the third quarter, we faced a number of regulatory pressures (summer clearing action, minor protection, live broadcast supervision, etc.), and it is expected that user growth may not be as good as the previous summer peak season.</p><p>But Mr. Dolphin believes that the value of B is by no means more than that in the long run. Although there is the initial intention of not doing patch advertising, the current fireworks platform belongs to the nature of private advertising, and the share of Up owners accounts for the absolute majority, and it eats a lot of the potential commercial value that originally belonged to Station B in disguise. In addition, the current user activity (DAU) of Station B and the effect of public domain advertising can't be simply benchmarked with other platforms such as short videos.</p><p>As the old saying goes, the most valuable thing about Station B is the Z-era users who are growing Up and becoming the main force of social consumption on the platform, including Up owners. This part of users has a very high recognition of the value of Station B. Although the high-frequency activity is not as good as other platforms (sticking to users by algorithms), users will regard Station B as a community rather than a tool platform for receiving information.</p><p>In addition, the proportion of Up owners among Bilibili's users has been increasing, reflecting that in addition to a long-term healthy community ecology, more and more UGC content and participants make Bilibili's live broadcast and other reward value-added services more advantageous than the traditional live show broadcast.</p><p>From the perspective of the stock price trend, the current Bilibili has fallen below a reasonable valuation range. Dolphin Jun believes that the current stock price implies a too pessimistic growth expectation for Bilibili in the future. In the short term, the fluctuation of stock price is more affected by the regulatory environment, such as the supervision of cultural content in special years, the protection of minors, and the summer clearing sports.</p><p>In addition, the pressure of video copyright supervision has also had a certain impact on Station B, especially on user growth and user stickiness. It is expected that the performance of the summer peak season in the third quarter of this year will be weaker than that in previous years. Combined with the slightly conservative guidance of the company's management, it may still fluctuate in the short term. Like other pan-entertainment platforms, they can actively intervene after the regulatory environment eases in 1-2 quarters.</p><p>Detailed interpretation of the data of this financial report</p><p>1. Overall performance: Beat guidance and expectations, the third quarter guidance is average</p><p>(1) Income end</p><p>In the second quarter, Bilibili achieved net revenue of 4.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72%, better than the market consensus estimate of 4.3 billion yuan (Bloomberg), and beat the upper limit of management guidance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fafffeeda8d6558a844d6a1b948b3d73\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Among different businesses, the growth rate of advertising revenue continued to be bright. Although new tours with high popularity were released, they still performed poorly, their contribution dropped rapidly year-on-year, and live broadcast and value-added services accelerated.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eeda3cb86c264fb48624bfdedb9a290\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>(2) Profit end</p><p>In the second quarter, the company's gross profit margin decreased by 2ppt quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to the increase of new tour share, content investment (LPL global finals, live broadcast rights of e-sports regular season) and the increase of live broadcast share (the share for anchors has increased to 80%-90%). In addition, since the share of fireworks is mainly given to Up owners, the advertising gross profit margin of Station B will be about 50%, which will be significantly lower than that of other platforms of 70-80%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f887b456f776639212b683aff9b924f5\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Operating loss (GAAP) was RMB1,521 million, exceeding market expectations of RMB1,188 million, mainly due to the increase in marketing expense ratio. In the second quarter, many new tours were released, and the marketing and promotion expenditure was large, with an increase of 6ppt from the previous month. On top of that, employee compensation and equity incentives were still increasing year-over-year during the quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00700190b7ba758d9a73747e491e8e3d\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>2. User scale: not light in the off-season, but there may be pressure on growth in the next third quarter under multi-supervision</p><p>In the second quarter, the number of users increased by 13.8 million compared with the previous quarter, reaching 237 million, which still increased by 38% under last year's high base, higher than the market expectation of 30%.</p><p>Considering the long-term guidance of 400 million users in 2023 previously put forward by Ruidi, the growth rate will be 20% off the previous year, and the growth rate of users this year will exceed 30%, otherwise it will not be able to achieve the goal of breaking 400 million by the end of 2023. (If the reduction is faster, it will put more pressure on growth this year)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc35917db286aafaf7193beaf990f689\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Regarding user stickiness, old questions persist, and while there are seasonal reasons, user stickiness (DAU/MAU) is at a two-year low. The activity of the platform will affect the future realization value space, especially for advertisers, who prefer platforms with high DAU or higher user stickiness.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5dd2285fa12caf9aaf03b668066ab5\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>However, considering that the length of the video itself will have a certain impact on the activity of the platform, the longer the video, the relatively average the activity. From Questmobile's 30-day retention on different video apps. Basically follow the rule of short video> medium video> long video. The company previously proposed that it is still in the stage of expanding the volume and scale, and the long-term guiding target for this indicator is 30%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebbdf10234956d4d225ac1921ef87260\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It is worth mentioning that in the second quarter, Station b made two prominent function page revisions for user stickiness. It is expected that user stickiness will improve to some extent in the third quarter:</p><p>a. One is the vertical screen Mode \"Story Mode\". Similar to short videos, you can directly swipe up and down to switch videos. The main purpose is to increase the user's time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7c6b06f790f5a624b92688c945fc0b0\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>b. The other is a major revision of the function just launched in the summer, highlighting the video creation function to guide more users to convert into Up owners.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb424a1d22c31c3acb454618b7158bf9\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c287fb8a77a7fbab67aa803197b88623\" tg-width=\"612\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>In terms of paying users, this quarter, games, big members and virtual items (such as coins, live gifts, etc.) rewarded paying users due to seasonality. The overall number of paying users was 20.9 million, and the payment penetration rate was basically the same as the previous month, but the downward trend of single-user payment level is still accelerating.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd0b917dd35f1253ab8521cd3e647405\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3fe17f130feaa73981a00fa6fc15c4e\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>3. Advertising business: The prosperity remains unabated and commercialization is steadily advancing</p><p>In the second quarter, the advertising revenue of Station B reached 1.05 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 201%, which greatly exceeded the expectations of the market and Dolphin Jun (150%). With the economic recovery, advertising recovery and the increasingly recognized brand influence of Bilibili will help to continue to promote the advertising boom of Bilibili.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ca8a9f6b713d9dcc736ab2e96a05fa1\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>At present, the share of Station B, a fireworks platform, is only about 6%, and the revenue is confirmed according to the total transaction amount, thus lowering the gross profit margin of the overall advertising.</p><p>Judging from the unique platform tonality of Station B, the future contribution of Fireworks Platform will also be significantly improved. However, for Station B, the contribution of fireworks platform to the overall performance may not be the core consideration of Station B in the short term, but more regards fireworks as a major empowerment tool to maintain the main ecology of Up.</p><p>After all, on Station B, the interaction between Up owners and users is high-frequency, and there are even some emotional connections. It can be regarded as a private domain relationship. Therefore, Up owner is also the core asset of Station B.</p><p>Dolphin guessed that in addition to the need to supplement more content supply, considering the strategic significance of fireworks, this is also the reason why Station b is constantly expanding the scale of Up master.</p><p>4. Games: The self-developed mobile games of Station B are still difficult to play</p><p>In the second quarter, the game revenue of Station B dropped by 1% year-on-year, which can be said to be very ugly compared with its peers (the domestic mobile game market grew by 13% in the second quarter). Although the popular new tours \"Kang Gong Riding Crown Sword\", \"Mobile War Princess\" and \"Sword God Domain\", which the market has high hopes for, have been released in the second quarter, the running water performance is very broken except \"Kang Gong\", which will be able to watch.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b34589edda01d2b4762c3bbb863a908c\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>From third-party data Sensor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWR.AU\">Tower</a>In the second quarter, it was mainly supported by the old tour of the agent and the flowing water of Kangong, while the popularity of Mobile War Princess and Sword God Domain declined too fast. (The black line is the running water of Genshin Impact, and the yellow line is the running water of Kangong)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76120ec81bbd370af36846abdce95ab9\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Perhaps it knows its own ability. On the basis of investing in seven game companies in the first quarter, Station B increased its investment in game projects in the second quarter, with six new investments.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06dfa2b855bb47a37223f2cd28caa0a9\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data Source: IT Orange</p><p>5. Value-added services: excellent performance, it is expected that video coin sharing and live broadcast popularity will bring</p><p>In the second quarter, the value-added business actually performed well, especially in the industry environment of the overall show, with a revenue of 1.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98%, slightly lower than the expectation of the big bank.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17b705a002cb773314ece3532fc873c7\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>The live broadcast and value-added services of Station B include big members, video coin sharing, live reward sharing, etc. From the perspective of the scale of paid users, considering the poor performance of mobile games in the second quarter, and the new regulatory policy faced by Japanese comics in April (first trial and then broadcast), it is expected that it will also have an impact on the income of big members. Therefore, these two parts of income are excluded. Dolphin Jun speculates that the rapid growth of new paid users, overall live broadcast and value-added services should be mainly brought about by the increase of coin sharing and the increase of live broadcast popularity.</p><p>This is different from the traditional live broadcast of the show. At present, the live broadcast of Station B is still in the growth stage of high-speed penetration.</p><p>6. Other businesses such as e-commerce: although the proportion is small, the momentum is stronger</p><p>In the second quarter, e-commerce continued to nearly double its high growth. However, considering that this piece of income (member purchase) is mainly driven by the consumption of core animation users, it currently accounts for a relatively small 13%. However, with the continuous growth of the two-dimensional group among users in the Z era, the future prospects should not be overestimated. Therefore, Dolphin Jun suggested that investors should pay moderate attention to this business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18a80db984627337ad7a5bca90facc7f\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bilibili Financial Report, Dolphin Investment Research</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3vpiikFB32ccR93qlev_iw\">海豚投研</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d200d79dddd38e6e9c8afcc45f4b15a9","relate_stocks":{"BILI":"哔哩哔哩","09626":"哔哩哔哩-W"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3vpiikFB32ccR93qlev_iw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2160799134","content_text":"北京时间8月19日港股盘后，哔哩哔哩发布了2021年二季度财报。\n本季B站实现净营收45亿元人民币，同比增长72%，优于市场一致预期的43亿元(彭博)，一如既往的超前期指引(42.5-43.5亿元)。\n展望三季度，管理层给出收入指引 51亿元~52亿元，隐含增速在60%左右，并不算特别乐观。市场当前对三季度营收的一致预期 51.7亿落在指引区间，而以往情况，指引下限就会超出市场预期。显然这一次B站的三季度指引是略保守的。\n二季度经调整净亏损8.57亿元，优于市场预期的10.84亿元。但如果从主营业务的经营亏损情况来看，15.2亿的亏损对应34%的亏损率，而市场一致预期在28%(部分头部大行的预期有所调整，与实际亏损率差不多)，细拆数据，主要预期差在运营费用上。(具体原因下文分析)\n另外在其他关键经营指标上，二季度表现与市场预期差速览：\n数据来源：B站财报、海豚投研整理\n先说结论：\n(1)从整体上看，虽然B站二季度收入端和用户数据，明显beat了公司指引和市场预期。\n但7月底公司对外与券商做过一些二季度具体业绩情况的前瞻引导(市场多数认为前瞻并不积极，因此也引发了一轮股价的下跌)，随后市场的预期根据这次前瞻也已经调整了一段时间了。\n(2)不过，从最终交付的结果来看，广告收入表现显然还是相当出色的，同比翻一倍。\n游戏则拉垮的厉害，热门新游虽然如期发布，但整体流水不增反降。自研游戏一般般B站心里还是多少清楚的，二季度对外投资游戏工作室的脚步没有停。\n(3)用户大盘增长还可以，但老问题还是没看到改善的迹象：日活用户DAU跟不上MAU的增速，可以说体现出整体用户粘性的下滑。三季度面临了多个监管压力(暑期清朗行动、未成年人保护、直播监管等)，预计用户增长可能不如以往的暑假旺季。\n但海豚君认为，从长期来看，B的价值绝不仅于此。虽然有着不做贴片广告的初心，而当下花火平台属于私域广告性质，给Up主的分成占绝对大头，变相分吃了不少原本属于B站的潜在商业价值。另外，B站当前的用户活跃度(DAU)，公域广告的效果也不能和短视频等其他平台简单对标。\n还是那句老话，B站最有价值就是平台上不断长大成为社会消费主力的Z时代用户包括Up主。这部分用户对B站的价值认可度非常高，虽然高频活跃度不如别的平台(靠算法黏住用户)，但用户会将B站视为社区，而不是一个信息接收的工具平台。\n另外，B站用户中Up主占比一直在升高，体现除了一个长期健康的社区生态，越来越多的UGC内容和参与者，使得B站的直播等打赏类的增值服务会比传统的秀场直播更具备优势。\n如果从股价走势来看，目前的B站已经跌破合理的估值区间，海豚君认为当前的股价隐含着对B站未来过于悲观的成长预期。短期内股价波动更多的还是受到了监管环境的影响，比如特殊年文化内容监管、未成年保护、暑期清朗运动等。\n另外，视频版权监管的压力也对B站造成了一定的影响，尤其对于用户增长、用户粘性方面。预计今年三季度暑期旺季的表现相较往年增长偏弱，结合公司管理层的略保守指引，短期内可能还是走震荡。和其他泛娱乐平台一样，待1-2个季度监管环境缓和后可积极介入。\n本次财报数据详细解读\n1、整体业绩：Beat指引和预期，三季度指引一般\n(1)收入端\n二季度B站实现净营收45亿元人民币，同比增长72%，优于市场一致预期的43亿元(彭博)，beat管理层指引上限。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n在不同业务中，广告收入增速继续亮眼。虽有热度较高的新游发布，但仍然表现不佳，贡献同比快速回落，直播与增值服务加速。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n(2)利润端\n二季度公司毛利率环比下滑2ppt，主要是新游分成增多、内容投资(LPL全球总决赛、电竞常规赛直播权)、提高直播分成(给主播的分成已提升至80%-90%)导致。另外，由于花火的分成大头主要给到了Up主，因此B站的广告毛利率50%左右会明显低于其他平台70-80%的水平。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n经营亏损(GAAP)15.21亿元，超出市场预期的11.88亿元，主要系营销费用率抬升所致。二季度不少新游发布，营销推广支出较多，环比增加了6ppt。除此之外，本季度员工薪酬和股权激励仍然在同比增加。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n2、用户规模：淡季不淡，但多监管下三季度增长或有压力\n二季度用户规模相比上季度净增1380万人，达到2.37亿人，在去年高基数下仍然增长38%，高于市场预期的30%。\n考虑到睿帝此前提出的2023年4亿用户的长期指引，增速按照上一年度8折的消减速度，则今年全年的用户增长速度要超过30%，否则无法完成到2023年底破4亿的目标。(如果消减速度更快，则对今年的增长压力也更大)\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n关于用户粘性，老问题仍然存在，虽然有季节性原因，但用户粘性(DAU/MAU)创两年新低。平台的活跃度会影响未来的变现价值空间，尤其是对于广告主来说，更喜欢DAU高或者用户粘性更高的平台。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n不过考虑到视频长短本身对于平台的活跃度也会存在一定影响，视频越长，活跃度也相对一般。从Questmobile关于不同视频app的30日留存来看。基本上遵循短视频>中视频>长视频的规律。公司此前提出，目前还在扩大体量规模出圈阶段，对这一指标的长期指引目标在30%。\n\n值得一提的是，二季度b站针对用户粘性，分别作了两个比较突出的功能页改版，预计三季度用户粘性会有一定改善：\na。 一个是竖屏模式“Story Mode”，类似短视频可以直接上下滑动切换视频，主要目的是增加用户时长。\n\nb。 另一个则是暑期刚上线的功能大改版，突出视频创作功能，以引导更多的用户转化为Up主。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n付费用户上，本季度游戏、大会员以及虚拟物品(如硬币、直播礼物b坷垃等)打赏付费用户受季节性影响，整体付费用户2090万人，付费渗透率环比基本持平，但单用户付费水平下滑趋势还在加速。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n3、广告业务：景气不减，商业化稳步推进\n二季度B站广告收入实现10.5亿元，增速201%，大大超出市场与海豚君的预期(150%)。随着经济复苏广告投放回暖以及B站日益被认可的品牌影响力，有助于继续推动B站广告繁荣。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n目前花火平台B站的自己拿掉的分成大概只有6%，并且按照总交易额确认收入，因此拉低了整体广告的毛利率水平。\n从B站特有的平台调性来看，花火平台的未来贡献也还会显著提升。但对于B站来说，花火平台对整体业绩的贡献，可能短期内并不是B站核心考虑的指标，而更多的是将花火视作一个维护Up主生态的一个主要赋能工具。\n毕竟在B站上，Up主与用户之间的交互高频，甚至存在一些的情感联系。可以视作是一个个私域关系组成。因此Up主也是B站的核心资产。\n海豚君猜测，除了需要补充更多的内容供给，考虑到花火的战略意义，这也是b站在不断扩展Up主规模的原因吧。\n4、游戏：B站的自研手游还是很难打\n二季度B站游戏收入同比下滑1%，对比同行(2季度国内手游市场增速13%)，可以说是很不好看了。虽然市场给予厚望的热门新游《坎公骑冠剑》、《机动战姬》、《刀剑神域》纷纷在二季度发布，但流水表现除了《坎公》将将能看之外，其他都很拉垮。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n从第三方数据Sensor Tower来看，二季度主要靠代理的老游以及《坎公》的流水支撑，而《机动战姬》、《刀剑神域》的热度下滑未免太快。(黑色线为《原神》流水，黄色线为《坎公》流水)\n\n或许是对于自己的能力心中有数，B站在一季度投资了7家游戏公司的基础上，二季度又增加了游戏项目的投资，新增投资6家。\n\n数据来源：IT桔子\n5、增值服务：表现优异，预计视频投币分成以及直播热度带来\n二季度增值业务其实表现不错了，尤其是在整体秀场日暮西山的行业大环境下，实现收入16.4亿元，同比增长98%，略有点低于大行的预期。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\nB站的直播与增值服务包括大会员、视频投币分成、直播打赏分成等。从付费用户规模来看，考虑到二季度手游表现不佳，另外4月日漫面临新监管政策(先审再播)预计对大会员收入也有影响，因此剔除掉这两部分收入，海豚君猜测此次新增付费用户、整体直播增与增值服务的高速增长，应该主要由硬币分成提升、直播热度提升带来。\n这与传统秀场直播不同，目前B站的直播仍然在高速渗透的成长阶段。\n6、电商等其他业务：占比虽小，势头更猛\n二季度电商继续高增长近一倍。但考虑这一块收入(会员购)主要靠核心动漫用户消费驱动，目前占比还相对较小13%。但随着Z时代用户中二次元群体的不断壮大，未来的前景也不可过分小觑。因此，海豚君建议投资者可适度关注这一块业务。\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09626":0.9,"BILI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3112,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838631181,"gmtCreate":1629389511643,"gmtModify":1676530027165,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>fly fly fly","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>fly fly fly","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$fly fly fly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/838631181","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2933,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839446435,"gmtCreate":1629177162127,"gmtModify":1676529954923,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"fly","listText":"fly","text":"fly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/839446435","repostId":"1191687734","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191687734","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629170912,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191687734?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-17 11:28","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Modern Dental once rose more than 30%, expecting net profit to turn into profit in the first half of the year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191687734","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月17日讯，现代牙科盘中一度涨逾30%，现报8.89港元，股价创2个月新高，市值87亿港元。公司昨晚发盈喜，预期今年上半年未经审核的纯利将介乎2.3亿元至2.45亿元，而上年同期为亏损约为1.4亿元","content":"<p>August 17th news,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03600\">Modern dentistry</a>It once rose by more than 30% in the intraday session, and is now reported at HK$ 8.89. The share price reached a two-month high, with a market value of HK$ 8.7 billion.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/763dc66ab9c40c9275c7db254b9d1438\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The company issued a positive profit last night. It is expected that the unaudited net profit in the first half of this year will range from 230 million yuan to 245 million yuan, compared with a loss of about 140 million yuan in the same period last year. According to the announcement, the turnaround from loss to profit was mainly driven by the Group's strong sales performance under the steady recovery of the dental industry. The company is expected to publish its results at the end of August.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Modern Dental once rose more than 30%, expecting net profit to turn into profit in the first half of the year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nModern Dental once rose more than 30%, expecting net profit to turn into profit in the first half of the year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-17 11:28</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>August 17th news,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03600\">Modern dentistry</a>It once rose by more than 30% in the intraday session, and is now reported at HK$ 8.89. The share price reached a two-month high, with a market value of HK$ 8.7 billion.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/763dc66ab9c40c9275c7db254b9d1438\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The company issued a positive profit last night. It is expected that the unaudited net profit in the first half of this year will range from 230 million yuan to 245 million yuan, compared with a loss of about 140 million yuan in the same period last year. According to the announcement, the turnaround from loss to profit was mainly driven by the Group's strong sales performance under the steady recovery of the dental industry. The company is expected to publish its results at the end of August.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"03600":"现代牙科"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191687734","content_text":"8月17日讯，现代牙科盘中一度涨逾30%，现报8.89港元，股价创2个月新高，市值87亿港元。公司昨晚发盈喜，预期今年上半年未经审核的纯利将介乎2.3亿元至2.45亿元，而上年同期为亏损约为1.4亿元。公告称，转亏为盈主要受集团在牙科行业稳健复苏形势下取得强劲的销售表现所驱动。公司预计于8月底刊发业绩。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03600":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2704,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830885930,"gmtCreate":1629046232120,"gmtModify":1676529916224,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"gogoog","listText":"gogoog","text":"gogoog","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830885930","repostId":"1118683392","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118683392","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628926455,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1118683392?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-14 15:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Ren Zeping: Global House Price Trends in 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118683392","media":"格隆汇","summary":"推动新一轮房改（新房改）迫在眉睫。","content":"<p>Author: Ren Zeping Team</p><p><b>introduction</b></p><p>We put forward an analytical framework widely circulated in the industry: real estate looks at population in the long term, land in the medium term and finance in the short term. This article looks at the global housing price trend and examines the factors and laws driving the housing price trend in different economies and major metropolitan areas.</p><p><b>The difference of long-term trend of local currency house prices in different economies can be explained as four aspects: income effect brought by economic growth, population effect caused by total population and structural changes, monetary illusion brought by money supply, and supply and demand pattern influenced by housing system.</b></p><p><b>In the past 51 years, housing prices in 23 economies have increased by an average of 29.6 times, with an average annual growth rate of over 6%. According to the increase in house prices, it can be divided into three categories:</b>First, the cumulative increase of housing prices in four economies, including South Africa and New Zealand, is more than 60 times and the average annual growth rate is 8.5%-10%; Second, there are 14 economies such as Ireland and Australia with the cumulative increase of housing prices between 5-50 times and the average annual growth rate between 5.5%-8%; Third, there are five economies, including Thailand and Switzerland, where the cumulative increase in housing prices is less than 5 times and the average annual growth is less than 4%.</p><p><b>During the pandemic, housing prices increased significantly, which was due to the implementation of quantitative easing policies in various countries and the release of improvement demand due to the backlog of the pandemic.</b>In the past year, the average house price of major economies has increased by more than 7%, Turkey has risen by 32%, New Zealand has risen by 22%, while the growth rate of major Asian countries is lower than the global average, and Singapore has the largest house price increase of 6.1%; China's house prices rose 4.3%.</p><p><b>The biggest increase in housing prices is in the metropolitan area of a country's internal population inflow.</b>London house prices have risen 113 times in 53 years, and the increase in inner London is even bigger; Land prices in Japan rose 82 times in the 36 years before the bubble burst, and the increase in six core cities was as high as 210 times.</p><p><b>We call for a new round of housing reform (new housing reform) to be urgently promoted. With the linkage between people and land, the control of currency and property tax as the core, we will speed up the construction of a long-term real estate mechanism, and promote the long-term stable and healthy development of the real estate market. There is still a time window of the last ten years.</b></p><p><b>text</b></p><p>1 Differences in housing price increases in different economies: economic growth, demographic change, money supply, housing system</p><p><b>1.1 There are obvious differences in housing price trends in 23 economies in the past 51 years</b></p><p><b>From Q1 1970 to Q1 2021, house prices in 23 economies increased by an average of 29.6 times, with an average annual growth rate of over 6%. According to the increase in house prices, it can be divided into three categories:</b></p><p><b>First, the cumulative increase of housing prices in four economies, including South Africa, New Zealand, Spain and the United Kingdom, is more than 60 times and the average annual growth rate is 8.5%-10%.</b>The cumulative increase of housing prices in South Africa and New Zealand is as high as 110.5 times and 86.9 times respectively, with an average annual growth of 9.7% and 9.2% respectively, ranking first and second among 23 economies respectively; UK house prices have increased by 62.3 times, with an average annual growth of 8.6%, ranking third among 23 economies; From Q1 1979 to Q1 2021, house prices in Spain increased 60.2 times cumulatively, with an average annual growth of 8.6%.</p><p><b>Second, there are 14 economies in Ireland, Australia, Hong Kong, Norway, Italy, Canada, Sweden, France, Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland, Malaysia, the United States and Belgium, with the cumulative increase of house prices between 5-50 times and the average annual increase of 5.5%-8%.</b>Housing prices in Ireland and Australia have increased by 48.1 times and 47.3 times, with an average annual growth of 7.9%; From Q1 1979 to Q1 2021, house prices in Hong Kong, China increased by 19.9 times, with an average annual growth of 7.7%; From Q1 1988 to Q1 2021, house prices in Malaysia increased by 5.1 times, with an average annual growth of 5.6%; The other 10 countries increased by 15-40 times, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5%-7.5%.</p><p><b>Third, there are five economies: Thailand, Switzerland, South Korea, Germany and Japan, where the cumulative increase in housing prices is less than 5 times and the average annual growth is less than 4%.</b>Among them, Thailand increased by 1.8 times from 1991Q1 to 2021Q1, with an average annual growth rate of 3.5%; From Q1 1975 to Q1 2021, house prices in South Korea rose by 3.2 times, with an average annual growth rate of 3.2%; From Q1 1970 to Q1 2021, house prices in Switzerland, Germany and Japan increased by 4.8 times, 3.6 times and 2.7 times cumulatively, with average annual growth of 3.5%, 3.0% and 2.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeac7b4ce1943e6a27a61f1ad0644753\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"681\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b27a668cefa0b6a8cb027f216644c95b\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>With the deepening of economic and financial globalization, the linkage of global housing price trend has gradually strengthened.</b>For example, house prices in the four Nordic countries fell in the mid-to-late 1980s, in Japan and South Korea in the early 1990s, in Southeast Asia in 1997, and in global real estate in 2007.<b>From the perspective of house price trend, 23 economies in the past 51 years can be roughly divided into four categories:</b></p><p><b>First, there are four economies with housing prices basically rising and small adjustments during the period, including Australia, New Zealand, Canada and France.</b>Since 1970, the cumulative decline in any downward cycle of the above four countries has not exceeded 9%. Among them, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and other three countries have not experienced two consecutive years of decline; France made three obvious adjustments in 1992-1995, 2008-2009 and 2011-2015, but the cumulative decline did not exceed 7% in all three times.</p><p><b>Second, there are 14 economies where house prices have dropped sharply but have risen more than the previous high in the later period, including Britain, the United States, Switzerland, the Netherlands, South Africa, Norway, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Thailand.</b>For example, house prices in the Netherlands plummeted by nearly 30% from 1979 to 1982 and more than 19% from 2008 to 2013, South Africa plummeted by 11% from 1984 to 1986, Finland plummeted by 37% from 1990 to 1992, Switzerland plummeted by 22% from 1990 to 1998, Malaysia and Thailand plummeted by more than 11% from 1997 to 1998 and 1998 to 1999 respectively, Hong Kong plummeted by more than 60% from 1998 to 2003, the United States plummeted by more than 30% from 2007 to 2011, and the United Kingdom plummeted by nearly 11% from 1990 to 1992 and more than 13% from 2008 to 2009. House prices in these economies have continued to rise after sharp declines and are now above their previous highs.</p><p><b>Third, there are four economies that burst in the early housing price bubble and are still below the high point, including Japan, Spain, Ireland and Italy.</b>Although the times and countries are different, the accumulation of real estate bubbles has been stimulated by excess liquidity and low interest rates without exception, and the collapse of real estate bubbles has been related to monetary tightening and rate hike. Housing prices in Japan, Spain, Ireland and Italy peaked in 1990, 2007, 2007 and 2008 respectively. Among them, housing prices in the first three countries have rebounded slightly in recent years. In 2020, housing prices in the above four countries were only equivalent to 63.4%, 84.7%, 84.8% and 83.2% of the peak respectively.</p><p><b>Fourth, Germany is the only economy with basically stable housing price trend and small overall increase.</b>Since 1970, German house prices have experienced three relatively large rising cycles: nearly 1.8 times from 1971 to 1981, 35.1% from 1987 to 1994, and 67.6% from Q1 2009 to 2021; However, in any downward cycle, the cumulative decline has never exceeded 10%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c9b91523fdf9fd2bb5f4d451baedf75\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3be2e050170ea5199c62f80800d0fb6f\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4915716ab9826f9a5e64f8c294cdcd6\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"694\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/411177ccdf3f9b3d00fb572c5672563e\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1.2 Long-term trend of local currency housing prices is related to economic growth, demographic changes, money supply and housing system</b></p><p><b>The difference of long-term trend of local currency house prices in different economies can be explained as four aspects: income effect brought by economic growth, population effect caused by total population and structural changes, monetary illusion brought by money supply, and supply and demand pattern influenced by housing system.</b>Real estate has both consumer goods attributes (housing demand, including rigid demand and improvement demand) and financial attributes (investment speculative demand, which can be leveraged). Therefore, house prices not only depend on supply and demand (population and residents' income, land supply), but also closely related to money supply. From the experience of global real estate market operation, under the circumstances of no dispute, plague, natural disasters, economic and financial crisis, the housing price of a country rises for a long time with the economic development.</p><p><b>From 1970 to Q1 2021, the average annual growth rate of local currency house prices and nominal GDP growth rate of local currency in 23 economies were 6.3% and 7.5%, respectively, which were relatively close, and the correlation coefficient was 0.52;</b>Excluding Thailand and Malaysia, the correlation coefficient of 21 economies is 0.54; Excluding Thailand, Malaysia, South Korea and Hong Kong, the correlation coefficient of 19 economies reaches 0.87. Nominal GDP can be decomposed into constant price per capita GDP, population, GDP deflator, and the housing system that affects the supply and demand pattern. Four factors can better explain the long-term trend differences of housing prices in different economies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7af05caae4ef416d72059040f7bd4d3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1) The income effect of economic growth. The growth of constant price GDP reflects the real economic growth after excluding prices. The growth of constant price GDP per capita in local currency means that the real purchasing power of residents increases and the demand for real estate increases.</b>From 1970 to Q1, 2021, the average annual growth rate of constant price of local currency in 23 economies was 2.7% and the median was 2.2%, and the average annual growth rate of constant price of local currency per capita was 1.9% and the median was 1.6% (the data calculation of some economies started when housing price data was available, and Spain, Hong Kong, South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand started from 1971, 1979, 1975, 1988 and 1991 respectively). Among them, the average annual growth rate of per capita GDP in constant local currency in South Korea is as high as 5.3%, that of Ireland, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Thailand is all over 2.5%, that of other economies is mostly below 2%, and that of South Africa is only 0.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de3b1d4d783da6689b6041becd9503e2\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2) Population effect caused by total population and structural changes.</b>The impact of population on housing prices at the economic level is mainly reflected in the following three aspects:</p><p><b>First, changes in the total population affect housing prices.</b>Total population changes include natural growth, cross-border population movements and, in general, changes in population size are directly proportional to housing demand. According to the World Bank data, the global fertility rate in 2019 was 2.4, of which the combined fertility rates of high-income, middle-high-income, low-middle-income and low-income economies were 1.6, 1.8, 2.7 and 4.6 respectively. The fertility rates of high-income and middle-high-income economies are no longer enough to make up for the generational replacement of the population. But high-income economies attract large cross-border inflows. From 1960 to 2020, the accumulated net inflow of population from high-income economies amounted to 140 million, and the proportions from middle-high, middle-low and low-income economies were 26.4%, 50.0% and 27.1% respectively. The living standard of the population in middle and high-income economies is close to that of high-income economies, and the migration motivation is not strong; Low-income economies have strong migration motivation, but it is difficult to bear the migration cost; Low-and middle-income economies have strong migration motivation and can bear the migration cost. According to the statistics of the United Nations, the population of Germany once decreased by about 2.3 million from 2004 to 2011, and then returned to growth due to immigration. Japan's population began to grow negatively in 2009, and Italy's population began to grow negatively in 2016.</p><p><b>Second, changes in demographic structure affect housing prices.</b>Changes in demographic structure, such as the main home buyers aged 20-50 and the size of households, will lead to changes in housing demand. In terms of household size, due to delayed marriage age, increased unmarriage and divorce rates, low fertility rate, extended life expectancy, population aging, population movement, etc., the global household size has shown a trend of miniaturization, which has increased certain housing demand. In 1960-2015, household size fell from 3.33 to 2.54 in the United States and from 4.14 to 2.39 in Japan; Furthermore, in 1980-2015, South Korea dropped from 4.78 to 2.73. In terms of the main home buyers, the population aged 20-49 in the United States is still growing, and Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom have peaked in 1996, 2004 and 2011 respectively. The change of the scale of the main home buyers has a very significant impact on the real estate market.</p><p><b>Third, the population affects housing prices through economic growth.</b>The demographic dividend is an important source of rapid economic growth in many catch-up economies in the past. After the demographic dividend disappears, the economy often turns to medium or low growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32d6b01bca24010940600884b4f55b7e\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373bd33ed383da37d0380f150e39c70b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>3) Monetary illusion brought about by the money supply.</b>From international experience, in the process of economic development, most countries have varying degrees of excessive currency issuance, which leads to changes in asset prices. Generally speaking, higher growth in the broad money supply leads to higher inflation. From 1970 to 2021Q1, the average annual GDP deflator of the 23 economies was 4.3% on average and 4.0% on median, which was not only close to the average annual housing price growth of 6.3% in the 23 economies on an absolute level, but also fluctuated more consistently. For example, in Q1 1970-2021, South Africa's broad money increased by 532.5 times. With the substantial excess of currency, South Africa's nominal GDP increased by 390.2 times, while its real GDP only increased by 1.9 times, the GDP deflator increased by 130.2 times, and house prices increased by 101.6 times. U.S. broad money rose 33.2 times, nominal GDP rose 19.0 times, real GDP rose 2.8 times, the GDP deflator rose 5.2 times, and home prices rose 13 times. However, excessive currency issuance is easy to breed asset price bubbles such as real estate, and in extreme cases, it may even lead to economic crises, such as Japanese real estate bubble in 1990s and US subprime mortgage crisis in 2007.</p><p><b>Due to the faster growth of broad money in emerging economies, house prices in local currency terms have increased more than in advanced economies.</b>According to the data of the World Bank, the average annual growth rate of broad money in nine representative emerging economies including India and Mexico from 2001 to 2020 was 13.7%, which was significantly higher than the 5.3% of six representative developed economies including Britain, the United States and Japan. According to BIS statistics, the average annual growth rate of housing prices in emerging economies from 2010 to 2020 was 6.8%, exceeding the average annual growth rate of housing prices in developed economies of 3.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7906272da5dc3fe1c22ea5aa0f4e99e\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>4) The supply and demand pattern influenced by the housing system.</b>Housing system is a country's real estate market orientation. A good housing system can make housing prices stable for a long time and support the development of real economy. A bad housing system may cause housing prices to soar and plummet, weaken or even hollow out the real economy. The key to the long-term stability of German housing prices lies in the design of its residential-oriented housing system. The three pillars are: neutral and stable monetary policy and housing financial system, a tax system that encourages residents to hold houses for a long time and cracks down on speculation, and a leasing system that protects tenants' rights and interests and encourages long-term renting. At present, Singapore has formed a dual supply system with HDB flats as the main factor and private houses as the supplement. The supply structure presents a stepped distribution of \"low-rent housing-low-cost housing-improved HDB flats-private housing\", with the housing ownership rate exceeding 90%, basically realizing home ownership.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32a2ee39af0d3a9fd9990c2373fa67d0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"646\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>There is a significant difference between the increase of house prices in $1.3 and local currency</b></p><p><b>In terms of US dollars, the increase of house prices in 23 economies changed significantly from 1970 to Q1 of 2021, and there was a certain correlation between the increase of house prices in US dollars and the growth of nominal GDP in US dollars. If an economy's currency overissuance is more serious than that of the United States, the currency will depreciate against the US dollar. Therefore, the sharp rise in local currency house prices does not mean that the US dollar house prices have risen sharply, and it may not necessarily have investment value globally.</b>According to the increase of US dollar house prices, it can be roughly divided into four categories: First, the cumulative increase exceeds 50 times and the average annual growth exceeds 8%, only one in New Zealand. Second, the cumulative growth rate is 25-35 times and the average annual growth rate is 7%-7.5%, with three economies: Britain, the Netherlands and Spain. Third, the cumulative growth rate is 10-20 times and the average annual growth rate is 5%-6.9%, with 14 economies including Ireland, Australia, Norway, Belgium, Italy and Japan. Fourth, the cumulative growth rate is less than 9 times and the average annual growth rate is less than 5%. There are five economies: Germany, Malaysia, South Africa, Thailand and South Korea. Compared with the increase in local currency house prices, the biggest change was in South Africa, where the increase in local currency house prices was as high as 110.5 times from 1970 to 2021Q1, but the increase in US dollar house prices was only 3.8 times. In addition, the house price in local currency in Switzerland increased only 4.8 times, but the house price in US dollar reached 25.9 times; Italian local currency house prices rose 34.7 times, but the increase of US dollar house prices shrank to 12.1 times; Home prices in Germany rose 3.6 times in local currency and 8.8 times in US dollars.</p><p><b>From the correlation coefficient,</b>The correlation coefficient between the growth of US dollar house prices and the growth of US dollar nominal GDP in 23 economies is only 0.20, which is weak. However, if South Korea, where the nominal GDP of US dollar increased by 75.3 times and the house price of US dollar increased by only 0.7 times, and Ireland, where the nominal GDP of US dollar increased by 99.6 times and the house price of US dollar increased by only 28.7 times, are excluded, the correlation coefficient of the remaining 21 economies is 0.77; This shows that from the perspective of global real estate asset allocation, the positive correlation between the growth of US dollar house prices and the growth of US dollar nominal GDP in an economy is generally established. The long-term trend difference of US dollar house prices in different economies can also be decomposed by corresponding factors similar to the previous trend of local currency house prices. The difference is that the excess currency issuance factor of an economy relative to the United States is eliminated through the exchange rate mechanism.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cfaeece0e6f1a8b3cdfe7ae7493e4fc\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"692\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1.4 Global house prices have increased significantly under the epidemic</b></p><p><b>In the past year, house prices in major economies have increased by more than 7% on average, with Turkey rising by 32% and New Zealand rising by more than 20%.</b>According to KnightFrank data, home prices in Turkey rose 32% from Q1 2020 to Q1 2021, topping the list; It was followed by New Zealand, which rose 22%; Luxembourg was third, up 16.6%; Slovakia was fourth, up 15.5%; The U.S. came in fifth with a 13% gain, the biggest since 2005. While the growth rate of major Asian countries is lower than the global average, Singapore has the largest increase in house prices, at 6.1%; Japan, which followed, gained 5.7%; China's house prices rose 4.3%.</p><p><b>The large increase in housing prices during the epidemic period was due to the implementation of quantitative easing policies in various countries and the release of improvement demand due to the backlog of the epidemic.</b>1) From the perspective of monetary policy, in order to stimulate economic recovery under the impact of the epidemic, central banks of various countries implement quantitative easing policies. On the one hand, under the quantitative easing policy, the liquidity in the market has increased, and it has reached the hands of the people through enterprise bail-out funds and unemployment benefits. At the same time, under the loose monetary policy, mortgage interest rates have been lowered. For example, the 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate anchored by the American Mortgage Banking Association has reached a record low of 3.08%. On the other hand, the currency depreciation brought by the quantitative easing policy makes people eager to find value-preserving assets, and real estate with value-preserving and appreciation attributes has become the first choice for investment. 2) From the perspective of demand, the backlog of improvement demand during the epidemic will be released after the epidemic has been controlled to some extent. Secondly, \"black swan\" events such as the epidemic have made more and more investors try to reduce risks by diversifying assets, and owning a second home has become the choice of more high-net-worth individuals. 3) From the perspective of supply, the loose monetary policy has caused a general rise in asset prices, and the rise in raw material prices has increased the construction cost. At the same time, the epidemic has led to a shortage of workers, which has aggravated the tight supply of raw materials, further pushed up raw material prices, and thus pushed up housing prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/834288b9b8894d0402b3c3f3f5cd3a38\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>2 Which region has the biggest increase in house prices in a country: the metropolitan area with population inflow</p><p><b>2.1 UK: London house prices have risen 113 times in 53 years, with Inner London rising even more</b></p><p>There are three areas of London: the City of London, Greater London, and the London Metropolitan Area. London City is the City of London, with a small area. In the general sense, London refers to the Greater London area, including 319 square kilometers of Inner London and 1,254 square kilometers of Outer London, with a total land area of 1,573 square kilometers, accounting for 0.6% of the UK; The London metropolitan area consists of Greater London and surrounding areas. Due to the prominent diseases in big cities caused by urban planning problems, the British government once controlled the population of London, especially inner London, relocated industries after World War II, and built a large number of new cities. From 1941 to 1991, the annual population of London dropped from 8.62 million to 6.39 million, and then rose to 8.82 million in 2017, currently accounting for 13.4% of the British population. However, under the influence of economy, the population of the surrounding areas of London has been agglomerated for a long time. From 1931 to 2001, the population of southeast England increased from less than 13 million to more than 18 million, accounting for 27.5% to 31.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02ca4c76a629e8fce4ea2dff163fba65\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>In the past 53 years, house prices in Greater London have increased by 113 times, far exceeding the average house price increase in Britain and England (71 and 81 times) and the nominal GDP increase in Britain (51 times).</b>According to the data of the UK National Statistics Office (ONS), in the UK, from 1968 to March 2021, the house price in Greater London increased from 0.4,400 pounds per unit to 0.500,000 pounds per unit, in England from 0.3,400 pounds per unit to 275,000 pounds per unit, and nationally from 0.3,600 pounds per unit to 256,000 pounds per unit. The house price in London increased by 113 times, which was higher than 71 times nationally and 81 times in England. In the same period (1967-2020), the nominal GDP of the UK increased by 50.7 times, with an average annual growth of 7.7%, and the increase of house prices obviously outperformed the nominal GDP growth.</p><p><b>In stages, the house price increase in Greater London was very close to that in England and the United Kingdom before 1994, but the volatility increased obviously after 1995, especially after the global financial crisis in 2008.</b>From 1968 to 1994, house prices in Greater London, England and Britain increased by 15.0 times, 14.7 times and 14.6 times respectively, with small differences; However, until March 2018, the increase of house prices was obviously differentiated, which was 5.3 times, 3.5 times and 3 times respectively. Affected by the 2008 financial crisis, house prices in Greater London, England and the United Kingdom fell by 16.6%, 15.0% and 14.9% year-on-year in April 2009; After that, under the background of monetary stimulus quantitative easing, house prices gradually picked up, with average annual growth rates of 7.5%, 4.5% and 4.1% respectively by March 2018.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65731004c8f9a4f7c0bc36cc5cfb211a\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>From the interior of the London metropolitan area, the house price in Greater London has increased by more than 6.5 times in the past 26 years, ranking first in the region, and the increase in the surrounding areas is less than 6.0%.</b>In the three years from January 1995 to 2021, Greater London house prices increased by 6.7 times, while the surrounding areas of Kent, Hertfordshire, Essex, Windsor and Maidenhead, Surrey saw increases of 5.5, 5.7, 5.5, 5.2 and 5.4 times respectively, with Greater London house price increases significantly higher than the surrounding areas. In addition, house prices in Birmingham, the second largest city in Britain, rose only 4.6 times during this period, significantly lower than the increase in London and surrounding areas.</p><p><b>From the inside of Greater London, in the past 26 years, the house price in the core area of London has increased by more than 7 times, and the house price in outside London has increased by less than 6.5 times.</b>Inner London house prices rose 7.6 times from £78,300/unit to £594,500/unit between January 1995 and March 2021; Outer London house prices rose 6.2 times from £73,000/unit to £451,000/unit. At present, the most expensive house prices in London are Kensington and Chelsea (£1,2272 million/unit), followed by City of Westminster (£936,800/unit), up 6.7 times and 7.0 times respectively from January 1995.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d53232626f2d5e64d75a676f520e515f\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"692\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1e929dc297e8b1905401a6ed5999242\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2.2 France: Housing prices in Paris have risen 44 times in 55 years, exceeding the surrounding areas</b></p><p>Paris has three areas: Paris City (or Little Paris), Greater Paris (including three suburban provinces), and Paris Region (including four outer suburban provinces, also known as \"Ile-de-France\"), with land areas of 105, 761 and 12001 square kilometers respectively, of which the land area of Paris Region accounts for 1.8% of France. With industrial agglomeration, the French population has continued to gather in Paris and surrounding areas for a long time. From 1876 to 2014, the population of Paris basically increased from 3.32 million to 12.03 million, the proportion of the population increased from 8.6% to 18.8%, and the economic share increased from 28.4% in 1990 to 30.4% in 2014. During this period, for the purpose of controlling the population to cure metropolitan diseases, the city of Paris declined for a long time. From 1931 to 1999, it continued to drop from 2.89 million to 2.13 million, and then rose to 2.18 million in 2018.</p><p><b>In the past 55 years, the house price in Paris has increased by 43.7 times in 55 years, obviously exceeding the average house price increase in France (26.6 times) and the nominal GDP increase in France (29.5 times). Its average annual growth rates are 7.2%, 6.2% and 6.4% respectively.</b>Before that, from 1945 to 1965, due to the influence of postwar reconstruction, baby boom and excessive currency issuance, house prices in Paris and France soared 54.1 and 38.3 times respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 22.2% and 20.1%, but they still lagged behind the average annual growth rate of nominal GDP (51.2% from 1950 to 1965).</p><p><b>Looking at it in stages,</b>The trend of house prices in Paris after 1966 can be divided into four stages: 1) 1966-1990, the period of rapid house price increase. During this period, house prices in Paris, French house prices and French nominal GDP increased by 10.7%, 9.3% and 10.6% annually. 2) 1992-1997, the period of house price decline. Due to the vigorous real estate speculation and the excessive increase of house prices in Paris from 1985 to 1990 (including the increase of more than 17% for four consecutive years from 1987 to 1990), house prices in Paris began to fall sharply. During this period, the average annual growth of house prices in Paris, French house prices and French nominal GDP was-6.1%, -0.4% and 3.8%. By the end of 1997, the house prices in Paris fell miserably to 69% in 1991. 3) 1998-2015, period of fluctuating growth. During this period, house prices in Paris, French house prices and French nominal GDP increased by 7.2%, 5.0% and 3.0% annually. Among them, house prices in Paris fell continuously from 2013 to 2015. However, after 2015, house prices in Paris ushered in a wave of large increases.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c239d397cf1aeafa440025897669e859\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The house price increase in Paris ranked first in the Paris region. From Q4, 1997 to Q1, 2021, the house price increase in Paris exceeded 3.5 times, which was significantly higher than that in the three suburban provinces and the four outer suburban provinces.</b>Because the land area of Paris is small (105 square kilometers), which is slightly larger than the sum of the area of Dongcheng District and Xicheng District of Beijing (93 square kilometers), we no longer analyze the house price in Paris, but take Paris as the core area of Paris region, and analyze the trend difference between its house price and other areas of Paris region. According to the data of the French Bureau of Statistics (INSEE), from Q4 1997 to Q1 2021, house prices in Paris increased by 3.7 times, significantly exceeding the 2.5 times of the three suburban provinces and the 1.6 times of the four outer suburban provinces. During this period, France's nominal GDP increased by 0.8 times. The three suburban provinces of Hauts de Seine, Seine St Denis and Val de Marne rose by 2.6 times, 2.5 times and 2.4 times respectively. The four outer suburban provinces of Yvelines, Val d'Oise, Seine and Marne and Essonne increased house prices by 1.8 times, 1.7 times, 1.5 times and 1.5 times respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef31ec3f0316c99a2e4b77fd99eac928\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"678\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2.3 United States: New York City House Prices Increase 9-fold in 46 Years, Queens Outperforms</b></p><p>New York has multiple meanings: New York City, New York Metropolitan Area, New York United Statistical Area, etc. Among them, New York City has a land area of 789 square kilometers and a population of 8.55 million in 2015; The New York-Newark-Jersey City Metropolitan Statistical Area (NY-NJ-PAMSA) covers an Area of approximately 17,000 square kilometers and had a population of 20.18 million in 2015; The New York-Newark Combined Statistical Area comprises the New York metropolitan Area and adjacent metropolitan areas, with a population of 23.72 million in 2015. From the perspective of population, due to the shift of the economic center of gravity of the United States to the west coast and the south coast, although the population of New York area basically continued to grow from 1950 to 2015, the increase rate of 84% was far smaller than that of Los Angeles area of 328%, which caused the population proportion of New York area to decline significantly. During this period, due to population suburbanization and manufacturing decline, the population of New York City decreased from 7.89 million to 7.02 million from 1950 to 1980; Later, due to urban renewal and industrial transformation and upgrading, the population rose to 8.55 million in 2015, and the population dropped slightly to 8.42 million in 2019.</p><p><b>In the past 46 years, housing prices in New York City have increased by more than 9 times, which is higher than the average level in the United States, but lower than the price increase around New York City and Los Angeles area.</b>According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), from 1975 to Q1 2021, house prices in the United States, New York City, New York-Jersey-White Plains Subdivision (one of the New York Metropolitan Area Subdivision) (Q1 1976-2021), and Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale Subdivision (one of the Los Angeles Metropolitan Area Subdivision) increased by 8.1 times, 9.9 times, 12.9 times, and 19.7 times, respectively, with average annual growth rates of 4.9%, 5.3%, 6.0%, and 6.8%, respectively. Housing prices in the New York-Jersey-White Plains subdivision, although not as high as those in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale subdivision, are still significantly higher than the U.S. average. In addition, during this period, the nominal GDP of the United States increased by 13.7 times, with an average annual growth of 6.0%, and the M2 increased by 20.5 times, with an average annual growth of 6.9%. This means that New York City home prices underperformed U.S. nominal GDP and M2 over the same period, while the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale subdivision outperformed U.S. nominal GDP and approached M2.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3365bc98f3d57e2abfa2e44b8cd57d69\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22a2c22f165e582eba667aa4ba1eed6f\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>In the New York metropolitan area, house prices in New York subdivisions have increased more than four times in the past 35 years, ranking second among the four major subdivisions in New York metropolitan area.</b>In addition to the New York-Jersey City-White Plains subdivision, the New York metro area includes three subdivisions: NassauCounty – Suffolk County, Dutchess County – Putnam County, and Newark. The trend of house prices in the four major subdivisions is basically the same, among which the Nassau County – Suffolk County subdivision rose by 4.3 times from 1986 to Q1 of 2021, with an average annual increase of 4.9%, ranking first; The New York-Jersey City-White Plains subdivision rose 4.1 times, with an average annual increase of 4.6 percent, ranking second; The Newark Subdivision and the DutchessCounty-Putnam County Subdivision (Q1 1986-2018) increased 3.4x and 2.6x, respectively, with average annual increases of 4.3% and 4.6%, respectively.</p><p><b>Inside New York City, Manhattan home prices have nearly tripled in the past 30 years, which is higher than New York City levels.</b>In Q1 1991-2021, house prices in Manhattan, New York City increased by 1.9 times, with an average annual increase of 3.7%, and in Queens (1991-2020), house prices increased by 2.8 times, with an average annual increase of 4.7%. During this period, house prices in New York City and New York subdivision increased by 1.8 times and 2.0 times, respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d564c533cc7c696dd75bfb7fc8caa8b\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2.4 Japan: Six core cities have risen 210 times in 36 years</b></p><p>Tokyo has three ranges: Tokyo Metropolitan Area, Tokyo Metropolitan, which includes the Tokyo Circle of Chiba, Saitama, and Kanagawa Prefectures, with land areas of 627, 2188, and 13,558 square kilometers, respectively. Tokyo Circle accounts for 3.6% of Japan's land area, with a population of 36.94 million in 2020, accounting for 29.3% of Japan's, and its current GDP accounts for about 1/3 of Japan's.</p><p>Japanese population movement is divided into two stages: Before 1974, the national population basically continued to gather in the three poles of Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya circles. From 1884 to 1973, apart from the impact of the war, the population of Tokyo circle increased from 4.06 million to 26.07 million, accounting for 23.9% from 10.8%; The population of Osaka increased from 3.92 million to 16.36 million, accounting for 15.0% from 10.5%; The population of Nagoya Circle increased from 3.11 million to 9.18 million, accounting for 8.4% from 8.3%. After that, it turned to one pole concentration in Tokyo circle, while the population inflow and outflow in Nagoya circle were basically balanced, and the long-term net outflow in Osaka circle; By 2016, the population of Tokyo Circle, Osaka Circle and Nagoya Circle was 36.29, 18.31 and 11.34 million, accounting for 28.6%, 14.4% and 8.9% respectively. During this period, the population growth of Osaka Circle and Nagoya Circle was mainly due to natural growth. The population growth of Tokyo was stagnant from 1970 to 1997, mainly due to the industrial transfer and population migration in Tokyo metropolitan area, but the population of Tokyo non-metropolitan area and Tokyo circle prefectures increased significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d574585fc9099cc15439a0835d5fb4e1\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Land prices in Japan rose 82 times in the 36 years before the bubble burst, and the increase in six core cities was as high as 210 times.</b>Before the burst of the real estate bubble in 1991, Japanese land prices kept rising except for the adjustment in 1975, rising 82 times from 1955 to 1991, exceeding the nominal GDP increase of 55 times in that period; Among them, land prices in six core cities rose 210 times, and non-core cities rose 78 times. In stages, from 1955 to 1974, land prices in six core cities, including Tokyo, Yokohama, Nagoya, Kyoto, Osaka and Kobe, increased by 40.6 times, with an annual average of 21.7%, while those in other cities increased by 29.6 times, with an annual average of 19.7%. In the same period, nominal GDP increased by 15 times, with an annual average of 15.7%. From 1975 to 1991, land prices in six core cities increased by 4.5 times, with an annual average of 11.2%, while those in other cities increased by 1.7 times, with an annual average of 6.4%. In the same period, nominal GDP increased by 2.2 times, with an annual average of 7.5%.</p><p>In 1975, Japan's house prices continued to rise after the adjustment, mainly due to economic growth and the support of the main home buyers. However, due to the rapid rise in the later period, the sharp decline of the birth population, the peak of the main home buyers in the 1990s and the wrong response of the Japanese government, the real estate bubble burst in the early 1990s. After that, the land price in Japan continued to adjust to 2005. In 2017, the land price in Japan was only 47.1% of the peak. The land price in six core cities has fallen from 1992 to 2005. After experiencing a short-term rise in 2006-2008, it fell again in 2009-2012 due to the global financial crisis, and began to rise up in 2013. In 2017, the land price was only equivalent to 35.3% of the peak in 1991; Due to population outflow, land prices in Japan's non-core cities have been falling since 1992, and in 2017 land prices were equivalent to 47.5% of the peak in 1991.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b856c3f9e7ac62406c37642cf3647a60\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The trend of land price in Tokyo is basically the same as that of Japan as a whole, but the peak was in 1990, one year earlier than that of Japan as a whole, and increased by 3.4 times from 1976 to 1990, with an annual average of 11.1%; After that, it continued to decline until 2005, and in 2014, it was ahead of the national recovery.</b>Housing prices in Tokyo and Osaka peaked in 1990, and land prices in Nagoya and local areas peaked in 1991 and 1992 respectively. From 1976 to the peak of housing prices, land prices in Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya and local areas increased by 3.4, 3.9, 2.0 and 0.9 times, respectively, with an average annual growth of 11.1%, 12.0%, 7.7% and 4.0%, respectively; Especially before the housing price bubble burst, the land price in Tokyo soared 0.95 times from 1987 to 1988, and that in Osaka soared 1.6 times from 1988 to 1990. From 1976 to 1991, Japan's nominal GDP increased by 1.8 times, with an average annual growth of 7.2%, and its M2 increased by 2.7 times, with an average annual growth of 9.0%.</p><p>After the burst of the real estate bubble in the early 1990s, land prices in Tokyo fell sharply to 2005, and began to rise from 2006 to 2008. However, due to the global financial crisis, they began to adjust again in 2009 and began to rise again in 2014. By 2020, land prices in Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya and local areas were only 40.7%, 27.8%, 59.0% and 56.7% of the peak, respectively. The reason why the land price in Osaka circle adjusted the most tragic is that it rose the most before the bubble burst and lacked population support.</p><p><b>The land price in Tokyo metropolitan area peaked in 1988, and it doubled in the five years before the peak. At the same time, it adjusted early and stopped falling quickly. From 2005 to 2020, it rose by more than 25%, the highest in Tokyo circle.</b>Land prices in Tokyo and the Tokyo metropolitan area peaked in 1988, two years earlier than those in Tokyo and three years earlier than those in Japan as a whole. In the first five years of the peak, prices in the Tokyo metropolitan area rose twice, up from 1.8 times in Tokyo and 1.2 times in the Tokyo area. After the peak, house prices in Tokyo and the Tokyo metropolitan area continued to fall until 2005, then fell from 2009 to 2013, and began to pick up in 2014. From 2005 to 2020, housing prices in Tokyo Metropolitan and Tokyo Metropolitan Region increased by 13.3% and 27.5% respectively, while housing prices in Tokyo Metropolitan Non-Region Region remained basically flat, while housing prices in Tokyo Region fell by 1.7%. In 2016, the housing prices of Tokyo metropolitan, district and non-metropolitan districts were equivalent to 42.7%, 46.7% and 38.8% of their peak, respectively, which was very close to the 40.7% of Tokyo circle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/befe38251db05984d0243ae602871331\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a8bad47d30fee108ac396d9cb7ee063\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>3 Conclusion: In the past 51 years, real estate in metropolitan areas has outperformed money printing machines and promoted new housing reform</p><p><b>1) From a global perspective, a country's real estate market depends on: economic growth, demographic change, money supply, and housing system. Among them, the first two are fundamental factors; Over-issuance of currency will lead to a sharp rise in domestic local currency house prices, but not necessarily a sharp rise in US dollar house prices, that is, it may not necessarily have investment value from a global perspective; Housing system is the policy orientation of a country's real estate market.</b></p><p><b>2) Real estate has anti-inflation attributes and can partly share the dividend of economic growth, and real estate in metropolitan areas of most countries is one of the few assets that can outperform money printing machines.</b>From 1970 to Q1 2021, the growth rate of local currency house prices in 23 economies all exceeded the growth rate of their respective CPI to varying degrees. The average annual growth of real house prices in the United Kingdom, New Zealand, Hong Kong, China and Malaysia after deducting CPI can still reach over 3%, while the growth of real house prices in Japan and Germany after deducting CPI is close to 0. Compared with nominal GDP growth in local currencies, in Q1 1970-2021, only a few economies, such as New Zealand, outperformed house prices out of 23 economies, meaning that house prices in most economies can only partially share the economic growth dividend.</p><p><b>In the long run, the excessive issuance of global currency is a common phenomenon. The growth rate of broad money is mostly higher than the nominal GDP growth, and there are not many assets that can outperform money printing machines. Real estate in metropolitan areas of most countries is one of them.</b>From an international perspective, the average annual growth rate of house prices in the UK from 1987 to 2020 was 5.6%, which was higher than the average annual growth rate of nominal GDP of 4.5%, but still lower than the average annual growth rate of broad money of 7.1%; U.S. home prices grew at an average annual rate of 4.5% from 1960 to 2020, while nominal GDP and M2 grew at an average annual rate of 6.3% and 7.1%, respectively. Looking at metropolitan areas, in the United States, the New York-Jersey-White Plains subdivision recorded an average annual price growth of 5.8% from 1975 to 2020, down from 6.8% of M2 in the same period and the same as 5.8% of GDP. In China, the average annual growth rate of the broad money supply M2 in the past 40 years has been 15%. Since 1998, the average annual compound growth rate of the average sales price of newly-built houses in China has reached 7.72%, which is nearly 8 percentage points lower than the growth rate of M2 in the same period, while the house prices in first-tier cities are basically the same as the growth rate of M2.</p><p><b>3) From the perspective of global asset allocation, some emerging economies with great economic growth potential, especially their core cities, have great investment potential.</b>Generally speaking, emerging economies have serious excessive currency issuance, and house prices have increased greatly. However, from the perspective of global asset allocation, investors are concerned about the increase of US dollar house prices, that is, excluding the exchange rate change caused by the relative excessive currency issuance, while the increase of US dollar house prices is mainly related to the nominal GDP growth of US dollar, which can decompose economic growth, population change, housing system and other factors. Some emerging economies with great economic growth potential may have a \"golden age\" similar to the past of China's real estate market in the future, but they need to pay attention to political, legal and other related risks.</p><p><b>4) Build a residential-oriented new housing system in China.</b>The development of China's real estate in 20 years shows that short-term regulation cannot solve the fundamental contradiction of long-term imbalance between supply and demand, and deepening the reform of housing system is the fundamental to realize the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.</p><p><b>First, reform the \"linkage between people and land\" and optimize land supply.</b>At present, the \"people-land linkage\" is linked between the number of settled agricultural migrants and the supply of construction land, which can't solve the contradiction between the population inflow in hot cities and the shortage of housing supply. In the future, the new permanent population should be linked with land supply, and the balance of cultivated land occupation and compensation across provinces should be linked with the increase or decrease of urban and rural land use, such as the land sales index in northeast and west regions, which can effectively solve the problem of massive waste of land use index in northeast and west regions. Strictly implement the principle of \"linking the inventory elimination cycle with land supply\", and optimize the current land supply mode.</p><p><b>The second is to maintain the long-term stability of monetary policy and real estate financial policy.</b>Implement a long-term and stable housing credit financial policy to stabilize the expectations of buyers, support the demand for rigid and improved housing purchases, and at the same time curb speculative demand. Support the reasonable financing needs of housing enterprises, standardize the use of financing, and prevent excessive financing.</p><p><b>The third is to transform the housing supply structure and enrich the supply subjects.</b>At present, China's housing supply system emphasizes sales over leasing, and a multi-subject supply-oriented housing system has not yet been established. In the future, the main supplier will change from developers to the government, developers, leasing agencies, long-term leasing companies and other suppliers; The supply form will also shift from commercial housing to commercial housing, rental housing, shared property housing and other categories. However, the exploration of housing supply structure and the introduction of policies must be adapted to local conditions, and cities with net population outflow need to be vigilant against blindly following the trend.</p><p><b>Fourth, steadily promote the pilot project of property tax.</b>With the end of the era of large-scale development and the reduction of land transfer fees and tax revenue in transactions in the era of stock housing, it is the general trend to introduce property tax. From international experience, property tax is usually regarded as an important and stable source of local fiscal revenue by mature market economies. The general principle of property tax reform is \"legislation first, full authorization and step-by-step promotion\". \"Legislation first\" means legislation first and then levy; \"Full authorization\" means authorizing all localities to pilot measures according to local conditions, not one size fits all. According to international experience, the property tax itself is the local main tax; \"Distributed advancement\" means active and steady advancement, and it is necessary to strive for mature plans and do a good job in guiding social expectations.</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ren Zeping: Global House Price Trends in 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRen Zeping: Global House Price Trends in 2021\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-14 15:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Ren Zeping Team</p><p><b>introduction</b></p><p>We put forward an analytical framework widely circulated in the industry: real estate looks at population in the long term, land in the medium term and finance in the short term. This article looks at the global housing price trend and examines the factors and laws driving the housing price trend in different economies and major metropolitan areas.</p><p><b>The difference of long-term trend of local currency house prices in different economies can be explained as four aspects: income effect brought by economic growth, population effect caused by total population and structural changes, monetary illusion brought by money supply, and supply and demand pattern influenced by housing system.</b></p><p><b>In the past 51 years, housing prices in 23 economies have increased by an average of 29.6 times, with an average annual growth rate of over 6%. According to the increase in house prices, it can be divided into three categories:</b>First, the cumulative increase of housing prices in four economies, including South Africa and New Zealand, is more than 60 times and the average annual growth rate is 8.5%-10%; Second, there are 14 economies such as Ireland and Australia with the cumulative increase of housing prices between 5-50 times and the average annual growth rate between 5.5%-8%; Third, there are five economies, including Thailand and Switzerland, where the cumulative increase in housing prices is less than 5 times and the average annual growth is less than 4%.</p><p><b>During the pandemic, housing prices increased significantly, which was due to the implementation of quantitative easing policies in various countries and the release of improvement demand due to the backlog of the pandemic.</b>In the past year, the average house price of major economies has increased by more than 7%, Turkey has risen by 32%, New Zealand has risen by 22%, while the growth rate of major Asian countries is lower than the global average, and Singapore has the largest house price increase of 6.1%; China's house prices rose 4.3%.</p><p><b>The biggest increase in housing prices is in the metropolitan area of a country's internal population inflow.</b>London house prices have risen 113 times in 53 years, and the increase in inner London is even bigger; Land prices in Japan rose 82 times in the 36 years before the bubble burst, and the increase in six core cities was as high as 210 times.</p><p><b>We call for a new round of housing reform (new housing reform) to be urgently promoted. With the linkage between people and land, the control of currency and property tax as the core, we will speed up the construction of a long-term real estate mechanism, and promote the long-term stable and healthy development of the real estate market. There is still a time window of the last ten years.</b></p><p><b>text</b></p><p>1 Differences in housing price increases in different economies: economic growth, demographic change, money supply, housing system</p><p><b>1.1 There are obvious differences in housing price trends in 23 economies in the past 51 years</b></p><p><b>From Q1 1970 to Q1 2021, house prices in 23 economies increased by an average of 29.6 times, with an average annual growth rate of over 6%. According to the increase in house prices, it can be divided into three categories:</b></p><p><b>First, the cumulative increase of housing prices in four economies, including South Africa, New Zealand, Spain and the United Kingdom, is more than 60 times and the average annual growth rate is 8.5%-10%.</b>The cumulative increase of housing prices in South Africa and New Zealand is as high as 110.5 times and 86.9 times respectively, with an average annual growth of 9.7% and 9.2% respectively, ranking first and second among 23 economies respectively; UK house prices have increased by 62.3 times, with an average annual growth of 8.6%, ranking third among 23 economies; From Q1 1979 to Q1 2021, house prices in Spain increased 60.2 times cumulatively, with an average annual growth of 8.6%.</p><p><b>Second, there are 14 economies in Ireland, Australia, Hong Kong, Norway, Italy, Canada, Sweden, France, Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland, Malaysia, the United States and Belgium, with the cumulative increase of house prices between 5-50 times and the average annual increase of 5.5%-8%.</b>Housing prices in Ireland and Australia have increased by 48.1 times and 47.3 times, with an average annual growth of 7.9%; From Q1 1979 to Q1 2021, house prices in Hong Kong, China increased by 19.9 times, with an average annual growth of 7.7%; From Q1 1988 to Q1 2021, house prices in Malaysia increased by 5.1 times, with an average annual growth of 5.6%; The other 10 countries increased by 15-40 times, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5%-7.5%.</p><p><b>Third, there are five economies: Thailand, Switzerland, South Korea, Germany and Japan, where the cumulative increase in housing prices is less than 5 times and the average annual growth is less than 4%.</b>Among them, Thailand increased by 1.8 times from 1991Q1 to 2021Q1, with an average annual growth rate of 3.5%; From Q1 1975 to Q1 2021, house prices in South Korea rose by 3.2 times, with an average annual growth rate of 3.2%; From Q1 1970 to Q1 2021, house prices in Switzerland, Germany and Japan increased by 4.8 times, 3.6 times and 2.7 times cumulatively, with average annual growth of 3.5%, 3.0% and 2.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeac7b4ce1943e6a27a61f1ad0644753\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"681\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b27a668cefa0b6a8cb027f216644c95b\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>With the deepening of economic and financial globalization, the linkage of global housing price trend has gradually strengthened.</b>For example, house prices in the four Nordic countries fell in the mid-to-late 1980s, in Japan and South Korea in the early 1990s, in Southeast Asia in 1997, and in global real estate in 2007.<b>From the perspective of house price trend, 23 economies in the past 51 years can be roughly divided into four categories:</b></p><p><b>First, there are four economies with housing prices basically rising and small adjustments during the period, including Australia, New Zealand, Canada and France.</b>Since 1970, the cumulative decline in any downward cycle of the above four countries has not exceeded 9%. Among them, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and other three countries have not experienced two consecutive years of decline; France made three obvious adjustments in 1992-1995, 2008-2009 and 2011-2015, but the cumulative decline did not exceed 7% in all three times.</p><p><b>Second, there are 14 economies where house prices have dropped sharply but have risen more than the previous high in the later period, including Britain, the United States, Switzerland, the Netherlands, South Africa, Norway, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Thailand.</b>For example, house prices in the Netherlands plummeted by nearly 30% from 1979 to 1982 and more than 19% from 2008 to 2013, South Africa plummeted by 11% from 1984 to 1986, Finland plummeted by 37% from 1990 to 1992, Switzerland plummeted by 22% from 1990 to 1998, Malaysia and Thailand plummeted by more than 11% from 1997 to 1998 and 1998 to 1999 respectively, Hong Kong plummeted by more than 60% from 1998 to 2003, the United States plummeted by more than 30% from 2007 to 2011, and the United Kingdom plummeted by nearly 11% from 1990 to 1992 and more than 13% from 2008 to 2009. House prices in these economies have continued to rise after sharp declines and are now above their previous highs.</p><p><b>Third, there are four economies that burst in the early housing price bubble and are still below the high point, including Japan, Spain, Ireland and Italy.</b>Although the times and countries are different, the accumulation of real estate bubbles has been stimulated by excess liquidity and low interest rates without exception, and the collapse of real estate bubbles has been related to monetary tightening and rate hike. Housing prices in Japan, Spain, Ireland and Italy peaked in 1990, 2007, 2007 and 2008 respectively. Among them, housing prices in the first three countries have rebounded slightly in recent years. In 2020, housing prices in the above four countries were only equivalent to 63.4%, 84.7%, 84.8% and 83.2% of the peak respectively.</p><p><b>Fourth, Germany is the only economy with basically stable housing price trend and small overall increase.</b>Since 1970, German house prices have experienced three relatively large rising cycles: nearly 1.8 times from 1971 to 1981, 35.1% from 1987 to 1994, and 67.6% from Q1 2009 to 2021; However, in any downward cycle, the cumulative decline has never exceeded 10%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c9b91523fdf9fd2bb5f4d451baedf75\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3be2e050170ea5199c62f80800d0fb6f\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4915716ab9826f9a5e64f8c294cdcd6\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"694\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/411177ccdf3f9b3d00fb572c5672563e\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1.2 Long-term trend of local currency housing prices is related to economic growth, demographic changes, money supply and housing system</b></p><p><b>The difference of long-term trend of local currency house prices in different economies can be explained as four aspects: income effect brought by economic growth, population effect caused by total population and structural changes, monetary illusion brought by money supply, and supply and demand pattern influenced by housing system.</b>Real estate has both consumer goods attributes (housing demand, including rigid demand and improvement demand) and financial attributes (investment speculative demand, which can be leveraged). Therefore, house prices not only depend on supply and demand (population and residents' income, land supply), but also closely related to money supply. From the experience of global real estate market operation, under the circumstances of no dispute, plague, natural disasters, economic and financial crisis, the housing price of a country rises for a long time with the economic development.</p><p><b>From 1970 to Q1 2021, the average annual growth rate of local currency house prices and nominal GDP growth rate of local currency in 23 economies were 6.3% and 7.5%, respectively, which were relatively close, and the correlation coefficient was 0.52;</b>Excluding Thailand and Malaysia, the correlation coefficient of 21 economies is 0.54; Excluding Thailand, Malaysia, South Korea and Hong Kong, the correlation coefficient of 19 economies reaches 0.87. Nominal GDP can be decomposed into constant price per capita GDP, population, GDP deflator, and the housing system that affects the supply and demand pattern. Four factors can better explain the long-term trend differences of housing prices in different economies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7af05caae4ef416d72059040f7bd4d3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1) The income effect of economic growth. The growth of constant price GDP reflects the real economic growth after excluding prices. The growth of constant price GDP per capita in local currency means that the real purchasing power of residents increases and the demand for real estate increases.</b>From 1970 to Q1, 2021, the average annual growth rate of constant price of local currency in 23 economies was 2.7% and the median was 2.2%, and the average annual growth rate of constant price of local currency per capita was 1.9% and the median was 1.6% (the data calculation of some economies started when housing price data was available, and Spain, Hong Kong, South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand started from 1971, 1979, 1975, 1988 and 1991 respectively). Among them, the average annual growth rate of per capita GDP in constant local currency in South Korea is as high as 5.3%, that of Ireland, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Thailand is all over 2.5%, that of other economies is mostly below 2%, and that of South Africa is only 0.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de3b1d4d783da6689b6041becd9503e2\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2) Population effect caused by total population and structural changes.</b>The impact of population on housing prices at the economic level is mainly reflected in the following three aspects:</p><p><b>First, changes in the total population affect housing prices.</b>Total population changes include natural growth, cross-border population movements and, in general, changes in population size are directly proportional to housing demand. According to the World Bank data, the global fertility rate in 2019 was 2.4, of which the combined fertility rates of high-income, middle-high-income, low-middle-income and low-income economies were 1.6, 1.8, 2.7 and 4.6 respectively. The fertility rates of high-income and middle-high-income economies are no longer enough to make up for the generational replacement of the population. But high-income economies attract large cross-border inflows. From 1960 to 2020, the accumulated net inflow of population from high-income economies amounted to 140 million, and the proportions from middle-high, middle-low and low-income economies were 26.4%, 50.0% and 27.1% respectively. The living standard of the population in middle and high-income economies is close to that of high-income economies, and the migration motivation is not strong; Low-income economies have strong migration motivation, but it is difficult to bear the migration cost; Low-and middle-income economies have strong migration motivation and can bear the migration cost. According to the statistics of the United Nations, the population of Germany once decreased by about 2.3 million from 2004 to 2011, and then returned to growth due to immigration. Japan's population began to grow negatively in 2009, and Italy's population began to grow negatively in 2016.</p><p><b>Second, changes in demographic structure affect housing prices.</b>Changes in demographic structure, such as the main home buyers aged 20-50 and the size of households, will lead to changes in housing demand. In terms of household size, due to delayed marriage age, increased unmarriage and divorce rates, low fertility rate, extended life expectancy, population aging, population movement, etc., the global household size has shown a trend of miniaturization, which has increased certain housing demand. In 1960-2015, household size fell from 3.33 to 2.54 in the United States and from 4.14 to 2.39 in Japan; Furthermore, in 1980-2015, South Korea dropped from 4.78 to 2.73. In terms of the main home buyers, the population aged 20-49 in the United States is still growing, and Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom have peaked in 1996, 2004 and 2011 respectively. The change of the scale of the main home buyers has a very significant impact on the real estate market.</p><p><b>Third, the population affects housing prices through economic growth.</b>The demographic dividend is an important source of rapid economic growth in many catch-up economies in the past. After the demographic dividend disappears, the economy often turns to medium or low growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32d6b01bca24010940600884b4f55b7e\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373bd33ed383da37d0380f150e39c70b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>3) Monetary illusion brought about by the money supply.</b>From international experience, in the process of economic development, most countries have varying degrees of excessive currency issuance, which leads to changes in asset prices. Generally speaking, higher growth in the broad money supply leads to higher inflation. From 1970 to 2021Q1, the average annual GDP deflator of the 23 economies was 4.3% on average and 4.0% on median, which was not only close to the average annual housing price growth of 6.3% in the 23 economies on an absolute level, but also fluctuated more consistently. For example, in Q1 1970-2021, South Africa's broad money increased by 532.5 times. With the substantial excess of currency, South Africa's nominal GDP increased by 390.2 times, while its real GDP only increased by 1.9 times, the GDP deflator increased by 130.2 times, and house prices increased by 101.6 times. U.S. broad money rose 33.2 times, nominal GDP rose 19.0 times, real GDP rose 2.8 times, the GDP deflator rose 5.2 times, and home prices rose 13 times. However, excessive currency issuance is easy to breed asset price bubbles such as real estate, and in extreme cases, it may even lead to economic crises, such as Japanese real estate bubble in 1990s and US subprime mortgage crisis in 2007.</p><p><b>Due to the faster growth of broad money in emerging economies, house prices in local currency terms have increased more than in advanced economies.</b>According to the data of the World Bank, the average annual growth rate of broad money in nine representative emerging economies including India and Mexico from 2001 to 2020 was 13.7%, which was significantly higher than the 5.3% of six representative developed economies including Britain, the United States and Japan. According to BIS statistics, the average annual growth rate of housing prices in emerging economies from 2010 to 2020 was 6.8%, exceeding the average annual growth rate of housing prices in developed economies of 3.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7906272da5dc3fe1c22ea5aa0f4e99e\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>4) The supply and demand pattern influenced by the housing system.</b>Housing system is a country's real estate market orientation. A good housing system can make housing prices stable for a long time and support the development of real economy. A bad housing system may cause housing prices to soar and plummet, weaken or even hollow out the real economy. The key to the long-term stability of German housing prices lies in the design of its residential-oriented housing system. The three pillars are: neutral and stable monetary policy and housing financial system, a tax system that encourages residents to hold houses for a long time and cracks down on speculation, and a leasing system that protects tenants' rights and interests and encourages long-term renting. At present, Singapore has formed a dual supply system with HDB flats as the main factor and private houses as the supplement. The supply structure presents a stepped distribution of \"low-rent housing-low-cost housing-improved HDB flats-private housing\", with the housing ownership rate exceeding 90%, basically realizing home ownership.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32a2ee39af0d3a9fd9990c2373fa67d0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"646\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>There is a significant difference between the increase of house prices in $1.3 and local currency</b></p><p><b>In terms of US dollars, the increase of house prices in 23 economies changed significantly from 1970 to Q1 of 2021, and there was a certain correlation between the increase of house prices in US dollars and the growth of nominal GDP in US dollars. If an economy's currency overissuance is more serious than that of the United States, the currency will depreciate against the US dollar. Therefore, the sharp rise in local currency house prices does not mean that the US dollar house prices have risen sharply, and it may not necessarily have investment value globally.</b>According to the increase of US dollar house prices, it can be roughly divided into four categories: First, the cumulative increase exceeds 50 times and the average annual growth exceeds 8%, only one in New Zealand. Second, the cumulative growth rate is 25-35 times and the average annual growth rate is 7%-7.5%, with three economies: Britain, the Netherlands and Spain. Third, the cumulative growth rate is 10-20 times and the average annual growth rate is 5%-6.9%, with 14 economies including Ireland, Australia, Norway, Belgium, Italy and Japan. Fourth, the cumulative growth rate is less than 9 times and the average annual growth rate is less than 5%. There are five economies: Germany, Malaysia, South Africa, Thailand and South Korea. Compared with the increase in local currency house prices, the biggest change was in South Africa, where the increase in local currency house prices was as high as 110.5 times from 1970 to 2021Q1, but the increase in US dollar house prices was only 3.8 times. In addition, the house price in local currency in Switzerland increased only 4.8 times, but the house price in US dollar reached 25.9 times; Italian local currency house prices rose 34.7 times, but the increase of US dollar house prices shrank to 12.1 times; Home prices in Germany rose 3.6 times in local currency and 8.8 times in US dollars.</p><p><b>From the correlation coefficient,</b>The correlation coefficient between the growth of US dollar house prices and the growth of US dollar nominal GDP in 23 economies is only 0.20, which is weak. However, if South Korea, where the nominal GDP of US dollar increased by 75.3 times and the house price of US dollar increased by only 0.7 times, and Ireland, where the nominal GDP of US dollar increased by 99.6 times and the house price of US dollar increased by only 28.7 times, are excluded, the correlation coefficient of the remaining 21 economies is 0.77; This shows that from the perspective of global real estate asset allocation, the positive correlation between the growth of US dollar house prices and the growth of US dollar nominal GDP in an economy is generally established. The long-term trend difference of US dollar house prices in different economies can also be decomposed by corresponding factors similar to the previous trend of local currency house prices. The difference is that the excess currency issuance factor of an economy relative to the United States is eliminated through the exchange rate mechanism.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cfaeece0e6f1a8b3cdfe7ae7493e4fc\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"692\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1.4 Global house prices have increased significantly under the epidemic</b></p><p><b>In the past year, house prices in major economies have increased by more than 7% on average, with Turkey rising by 32% and New Zealand rising by more than 20%.</b>According to KnightFrank data, home prices in Turkey rose 32% from Q1 2020 to Q1 2021, topping the list; It was followed by New Zealand, which rose 22%; Luxembourg was third, up 16.6%; Slovakia was fourth, up 15.5%; The U.S. came in fifth with a 13% gain, the biggest since 2005. While the growth rate of major Asian countries is lower than the global average, Singapore has the largest increase in house prices, at 6.1%; Japan, which followed, gained 5.7%; China's house prices rose 4.3%.</p><p><b>The large increase in housing prices during the epidemic period was due to the implementation of quantitative easing policies in various countries and the release of improvement demand due to the backlog of the epidemic.</b>1) From the perspective of monetary policy, in order to stimulate economic recovery under the impact of the epidemic, central banks of various countries implement quantitative easing policies. On the one hand, under the quantitative easing policy, the liquidity in the market has increased, and it has reached the hands of the people through enterprise bail-out funds and unemployment benefits. At the same time, under the loose monetary policy, mortgage interest rates have been lowered. For example, the 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate anchored by the American Mortgage Banking Association has reached a record low of 3.08%. On the other hand, the currency depreciation brought by the quantitative easing policy makes people eager to find value-preserving assets, and real estate with value-preserving and appreciation attributes has become the first choice for investment. 2) From the perspective of demand, the backlog of improvement demand during the epidemic will be released after the epidemic has been controlled to some extent. Secondly, \"black swan\" events such as the epidemic have made more and more investors try to reduce risks by diversifying assets, and owning a second home has become the choice of more high-net-worth individuals. 3) From the perspective of supply, the loose monetary policy has caused a general rise in asset prices, and the rise in raw material prices has increased the construction cost. At the same time, the epidemic has led to a shortage of workers, which has aggravated the tight supply of raw materials, further pushed up raw material prices, and thus pushed up housing prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/834288b9b8894d0402b3c3f3f5cd3a38\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>2 Which region has the biggest increase in house prices in a country: the metropolitan area with population inflow</p><p><b>2.1 UK: London house prices have risen 113 times in 53 years, with Inner London rising even more</b></p><p>There are three areas of London: the City of London, Greater London, and the London Metropolitan Area. London City is the City of London, with a small area. In the general sense, London refers to the Greater London area, including 319 square kilometers of Inner London and 1,254 square kilometers of Outer London, with a total land area of 1,573 square kilometers, accounting for 0.6% of the UK; The London metropolitan area consists of Greater London and surrounding areas. Due to the prominent diseases in big cities caused by urban planning problems, the British government once controlled the population of London, especially inner London, relocated industries after World War II, and built a large number of new cities. From 1941 to 1991, the annual population of London dropped from 8.62 million to 6.39 million, and then rose to 8.82 million in 2017, currently accounting for 13.4% of the British population. However, under the influence of economy, the population of the surrounding areas of London has been agglomerated for a long time. From 1931 to 2001, the population of southeast England increased from less than 13 million to more than 18 million, accounting for 27.5% to 31.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02ca4c76a629e8fce4ea2dff163fba65\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>In the past 53 years, house prices in Greater London have increased by 113 times, far exceeding the average house price increase in Britain and England (71 and 81 times) and the nominal GDP increase in Britain (51 times).</b>According to the data of the UK National Statistics Office (ONS), in the UK, from 1968 to March 2021, the house price in Greater London increased from 0.4,400 pounds per unit to 0.500,000 pounds per unit, in England from 0.3,400 pounds per unit to 275,000 pounds per unit, and nationally from 0.3,600 pounds per unit to 256,000 pounds per unit. The house price in London increased by 113 times, which was higher than 71 times nationally and 81 times in England. In the same period (1967-2020), the nominal GDP of the UK increased by 50.7 times, with an average annual growth of 7.7%, and the increase of house prices obviously outperformed the nominal GDP growth.</p><p><b>In stages, the house price increase in Greater London was very close to that in England and the United Kingdom before 1994, but the volatility increased obviously after 1995, especially after the global financial crisis in 2008.</b>From 1968 to 1994, house prices in Greater London, England and Britain increased by 15.0 times, 14.7 times and 14.6 times respectively, with small differences; However, until March 2018, the increase of house prices was obviously differentiated, which was 5.3 times, 3.5 times and 3 times respectively. Affected by the 2008 financial crisis, house prices in Greater London, England and the United Kingdom fell by 16.6%, 15.0% and 14.9% year-on-year in April 2009; After that, under the background of monetary stimulus quantitative easing, house prices gradually picked up, with average annual growth rates of 7.5%, 4.5% and 4.1% respectively by March 2018.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65731004c8f9a4f7c0bc36cc5cfb211a\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>From the interior of the London metropolitan area, the house price in Greater London has increased by more than 6.5 times in the past 26 years, ranking first in the region, and the increase in the surrounding areas is less than 6.0%.</b>In the three years from January 1995 to 2021, Greater London house prices increased by 6.7 times, while the surrounding areas of Kent, Hertfordshire, Essex, Windsor and Maidenhead, Surrey saw increases of 5.5, 5.7, 5.5, 5.2 and 5.4 times respectively, with Greater London house price increases significantly higher than the surrounding areas. In addition, house prices in Birmingham, the second largest city in Britain, rose only 4.6 times during this period, significantly lower than the increase in London and surrounding areas.</p><p><b>From the inside of Greater London, in the past 26 years, the house price in the core area of London has increased by more than 7 times, and the house price in outside London has increased by less than 6.5 times.</b>Inner London house prices rose 7.6 times from £78,300/unit to £594,500/unit between January 1995 and March 2021; Outer London house prices rose 6.2 times from £73,000/unit to £451,000/unit. At present, the most expensive house prices in London are Kensington and Chelsea (£1,2272 million/unit), followed by City of Westminster (£936,800/unit), up 6.7 times and 7.0 times respectively from January 1995.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d53232626f2d5e64d75a676f520e515f\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"692\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1e929dc297e8b1905401a6ed5999242\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2.2 France: Housing prices in Paris have risen 44 times in 55 years, exceeding the surrounding areas</b></p><p>Paris has three areas: Paris City (or Little Paris), Greater Paris (including three suburban provinces), and Paris Region (including four outer suburban provinces, also known as \"Ile-de-France\"), with land areas of 105, 761 and 12001 square kilometers respectively, of which the land area of Paris Region accounts for 1.8% of France. With industrial agglomeration, the French population has continued to gather in Paris and surrounding areas for a long time. From 1876 to 2014, the population of Paris basically increased from 3.32 million to 12.03 million, the proportion of the population increased from 8.6% to 18.8%, and the economic share increased from 28.4% in 1990 to 30.4% in 2014. During this period, for the purpose of controlling the population to cure metropolitan diseases, the city of Paris declined for a long time. From 1931 to 1999, it continued to drop from 2.89 million to 2.13 million, and then rose to 2.18 million in 2018.</p><p><b>In the past 55 years, the house price in Paris has increased by 43.7 times in 55 years, obviously exceeding the average house price increase in France (26.6 times) and the nominal GDP increase in France (29.5 times). Its average annual growth rates are 7.2%, 6.2% and 6.4% respectively.</b>Before that, from 1945 to 1965, due to the influence of postwar reconstruction, baby boom and excessive currency issuance, house prices in Paris and France soared 54.1 and 38.3 times respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 22.2% and 20.1%, but they still lagged behind the average annual growth rate of nominal GDP (51.2% from 1950 to 1965).</p><p><b>Looking at it in stages,</b>The trend of house prices in Paris after 1966 can be divided into four stages: 1) 1966-1990, the period of rapid house price increase. During this period, house prices in Paris, French house prices and French nominal GDP increased by 10.7%, 9.3% and 10.6% annually. 2) 1992-1997, the period of house price decline. Due to the vigorous real estate speculation and the excessive increase of house prices in Paris from 1985 to 1990 (including the increase of more than 17% for four consecutive years from 1987 to 1990), house prices in Paris began to fall sharply. During this period, the average annual growth of house prices in Paris, French house prices and French nominal GDP was-6.1%, -0.4% and 3.8%. By the end of 1997, the house prices in Paris fell miserably to 69% in 1991. 3) 1998-2015, period of fluctuating growth. During this period, house prices in Paris, French house prices and French nominal GDP increased by 7.2%, 5.0% and 3.0% annually. Among them, house prices in Paris fell continuously from 2013 to 2015. However, after 2015, house prices in Paris ushered in a wave of large increases.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c239d397cf1aeafa440025897669e859\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The house price increase in Paris ranked first in the Paris region. From Q4, 1997 to Q1, 2021, the house price increase in Paris exceeded 3.5 times, which was significantly higher than that in the three suburban provinces and the four outer suburban provinces.</b>Because the land area of Paris is small (105 square kilometers), which is slightly larger than the sum of the area of Dongcheng District and Xicheng District of Beijing (93 square kilometers), we no longer analyze the house price in Paris, but take Paris as the core area of Paris region, and analyze the trend difference between its house price and other areas of Paris region. According to the data of the French Bureau of Statistics (INSEE), from Q4 1997 to Q1 2021, house prices in Paris increased by 3.7 times, significantly exceeding the 2.5 times of the three suburban provinces and the 1.6 times of the four outer suburban provinces. During this period, France's nominal GDP increased by 0.8 times. The three suburban provinces of Hauts de Seine, Seine St Denis and Val de Marne rose by 2.6 times, 2.5 times and 2.4 times respectively. The four outer suburban provinces of Yvelines, Val d'Oise, Seine and Marne and Essonne increased house prices by 1.8 times, 1.7 times, 1.5 times and 1.5 times respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef31ec3f0316c99a2e4b77fd99eac928\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"678\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2.3 United States: New York City House Prices Increase 9-fold in 46 Years, Queens Outperforms</b></p><p>New York has multiple meanings: New York City, New York Metropolitan Area, New York United Statistical Area, etc. Among them, New York City has a land area of 789 square kilometers and a population of 8.55 million in 2015; The New York-Newark-Jersey City Metropolitan Statistical Area (NY-NJ-PAMSA) covers an Area of approximately 17,000 square kilometers and had a population of 20.18 million in 2015; The New York-Newark Combined Statistical Area comprises the New York metropolitan Area and adjacent metropolitan areas, with a population of 23.72 million in 2015. From the perspective of population, due to the shift of the economic center of gravity of the United States to the west coast and the south coast, although the population of New York area basically continued to grow from 1950 to 2015, the increase rate of 84% was far smaller than that of Los Angeles area of 328%, which caused the population proportion of New York area to decline significantly. During this period, due to population suburbanization and manufacturing decline, the population of New York City decreased from 7.89 million to 7.02 million from 1950 to 1980; Later, due to urban renewal and industrial transformation and upgrading, the population rose to 8.55 million in 2015, and the population dropped slightly to 8.42 million in 2019.</p><p><b>In the past 46 years, housing prices in New York City have increased by more than 9 times, which is higher than the average level in the United States, but lower than the price increase around New York City and Los Angeles area.</b>According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), from 1975 to Q1 2021, house prices in the United States, New York City, New York-Jersey-White Plains Subdivision (one of the New York Metropolitan Area Subdivision) (Q1 1976-2021), and Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale Subdivision (one of the Los Angeles Metropolitan Area Subdivision) increased by 8.1 times, 9.9 times, 12.9 times, and 19.7 times, respectively, with average annual growth rates of 4.9%, 5.3%, 6.0%, and 6.8%, respectively. Housing prices in the New York-Jersey-White Plains subdivision, although not as high as those in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale subdivision, are still significantly higher than the U.S. average. In addition, during this period, the nominal GDP of the United States increased by 13.7 times, with an average annual growth of 6.0%, and the M2 increased by 20.5 times, with an average annual growth of 6.9%. This means that New York City home prices underperformed U.S. nominal GDP and M2 over the same period, while the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale subdivision outperformed U.S. nominal GDP and approached M2.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3365bc98f3d57e2abfa2e44b8cd57d69\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22a2c22f165e582eba667aa4ba1eed6f\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>In the New York metropolitan area, house prices in New York subdivisions have increased more than four times in the past 35 years, ranking second among the four major subdivisions in New York metropolitan area.</b>In addition to the New York-Jersey City-White Plains subdivision, the New York metro area includes three subdivisions: NassauCounty – Suffolk County, Dutchess County – Putnam County, and Newark. The trend of house prices in the four major subdivisions is basically the same, among which the Nassau County – Suffolk County subdivision rose by 4.3 times from 1986 to Q1 of 2021, with an average annual increase of 4.9%, ranking first; The New York-Jersey City-White Plains subdivision rose 4.1 times, with an average annual increase of 4.6 percent, ranking second; The Newark Subdivision and the DutchessCounty-Putnam County Subdivision (Q1 1986-2018) increased 3.4x and 2.6x, respectively, with average annual increases of 4.3% and 4.6%, respectively.</p><p><b>Inside New York City, Manhattan home prices have nearly tripled in the past 30 years, which is higher than New York City levels.</b>In Q1 1991-2021, house prices in Manhattan, New York City increased by 1.9 times, with an average annual increase of 3.7%, and in Queens (1991-2020), house prices increased by 2.8 times, with an average annual increase of 4.7%. During this period, house prices in New York City and New York subdivision increased by 1.8 times and 2.0 times, respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d564c533cc7c696dd75bfb7fc8caa8b\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2.4 Japan: Six core cities have risen 210 times in 36 years</b></p><p>Tokyo has three ranges: Tokyo Metropolitan Area, Tokyo Metropolitan, which includes the Tokyo Circle of Chiba, Saitama, and Kanagawa Prefectures, with land areas of 627, 2188, and 13,558 square kilometers, respectively. Tokyo Circle accounts for 3.6% of Japan's land area, with a population of 36.94 million in 2020, accounting for 29.3% of Japan's, and its current GDP accounts for about 1/3 of Japan's.</p><p>Japanese population movement is divided into two stages: Before 1974, the national population basically continued to gather in the three poles of Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya circles. From 1884 to 1973, apart from the impact of the war, the population of Tokyo circle increased from 4.06 million to 26.07 million, accounting for 23.9% from 10.8%; The population of Osaka increased from 3.92 million to 16.36 million, accounting for 15.0% from 10.5%; The population of Nagoya Circle increased from 3.11 million to 9.18 million, accounting for 8.4% from 8.3%. After that, it turned to one pole concentration in Tokyo circle, while the population inflow and outflow in Nagoya circle were basically balanced, and the long-term net outflow in Osaka circle; By 2016, the population of Tokyo Circle, Osaka Circle and Nagoya Circle was 36.29, 18.31 and 11.34 million, accounting for 28.6%, 14.4% and 8.9% respectively. During this period, the population growth of Osaka Circle and Nagoya Circle was mainly due to natural growth. The population growth of Tokyo was stagnant from 1970 to 1997, mainly due to the industrial transfer and population migration in Tokyo metropolitan area, but the population of Tokyo non-metropolitan area and Tokyo circle prefectures increased significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d574585fc9099cc15439a0835d5fb4e1\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Land prices in Japan rose 82 times in the 36 years before the bubble burst, and the increase in six core cities was as high as 210 times.</b>Before the burst of the real estate bubble in 1991, Japanese land prices kept rising except for the adjustment in 1975, rising 82 times from 1955 to 1991, exceeding the nominal GDP increase of 55 times in that period; Among them, land prices in six core cities rose 210 times, and non-core cities rose 78 times. In stages, from 1955 to 1974, land prices in six core cities, including Tokyo, Yokohama, Nagoya, Kyoto, Osaka and Kobe, increased by 40.6 times, with an annual average of 21.7%, while those in other cities increased by 29.6 times, with an annual average of 19.7%. In the same period, nominal GDP increased by 15 times, with an annual average of 15.7%. From 1975 to 1991, land prices in six core cities increased by 4.5 times, with an annual average of 11.2%, while those in other cities increased by 1.7 times, with an annual average of 6.4%. In the same period, nominal GDP increased by 2.2 times, with an annual average of 7.5%.</p><p>In 1975, Japan's house prices continued to rise after the adjustment, mainly due to economic growth and the support of the main home buyers. However, due to the rapid rise in the later period, the sharp decline of the birth population, the peak of the main home buyers in the 1990s and the wrong response of the Japanese government, the real estate bubble burst in the early 1990s. After that, the land price in Japan continued to adjust to 2005. In 2017, the land price in Japan was only 47.1% of the peak. The land price in six core cities has fallen from 1992 to 2005. After experiencing a short-term rise in 2006-2008, it fell again in 2009-2012 due to the global financial crisis, and began to rise up in 2013. In 2017, the land price was only equivalent to 35.3% of the peak in 1991; Due to population outflow, land prices in Japan's non-core cities have been falling since 1992, and in 2017 land prices were equivalent to 47.5% of the peak in 1991.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b856c3f9e7ac62406c37642cf3647a60\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The trend of land price in Tokyo is basically the same as that of Japan as a whole, but the peak was in 1990, one year earlier than that of Japan as a whole, and increased by 3.4 times from 1976 to 1990, with an annual average of 11.1%; After that, it continued to decline until 2005, and in 2014, it was ahead of the national recovery.</b>Housing prices in Tokyo and Osaka peaked in 1990, and land prices in Nagoya and local areas peaked in 1991 and 1992 respectively. From 1976 to the peak of housing prices, land prices in Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya and local areas increased by 3.4, 3.9, 2.0 and 0.9 times, respectively, with an average annual growth of 11.1%, 12.0%, 7.7% and 4.0%, respectively; Especially before the housing price bubble burst, the land price in Tokyo soared 0.95 times from 1987 to 1988, and that in Osaka soared 1.6 times from 1988 to 1990. From 1976 to 1991, Japan's nominal GDP increased by 1.8 times, with an average annual growth of 7.2%, and its M2 increased by 2.7 times, with an average annual growth of 9.0%.</p><p>After the burst of the real estate bubble in the early 1990s, land prices in Tokyo fell sharply to 2005, and began to rise from 2006 to 2008. However, due to the global financial crisis, they began to adjust again in 2009 and began to rise again in 2014. By 2020, land prices in Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya and local areas were only 40.7%, 27.8%, 59.0% and 56.7% of the peak, respectively. The reason why the land price in Osaka circle adjusted the most tragic is that it rose the most before the bubble burst and lacked population support.</p><p><b>The land price in Tokyo metropolitan area peaked in 1988, and it doubled in the five years before the peak. At the same time, it adjusted early and stopped falling quickly. From 2005 to 2020, it rose by more than 25%, the highest in Tokyo circle.</b>Land prices in Tokyo and the Tokyo metropolitan area peaked in 1988, two years earlier than those in Tokyo and three years earlier than those in Japan as a whole. In the first five years of the peak, prices in the Tokyo metropolitan area rose twice, up from 1.8 times in Tokyo and 1.2 times in the Tokyo area. After the peak, house prices in Tokyo and the Tokyo metropolitan area continued to fall until 2005, then fell from 2009 to 2013, and began to pick up in 2014. From 2005 to 2020, housing prices in Tokyo Metropolitan and Tokyo Metropolitan Region increased by 13.3% and 27.5% respectively, while housing prices in Tokyo Metropolitan Non-Region Region remained basically flat, while housing prices in Tokyo Region fell by 1.7%. In 2016, the housing prices of Tokyo metropolitan, district and non-metropolitan districts were equivalent to 42.7%, 46.7% and 38.8% of their peak, respectively, which was very close to the 40.7% of Tokyo circle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/befe38251db05984d0243ae602871331\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a8bad47d30fee108ac396d9cb7ee063\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>3 Conclusion: In the past 51 years, real estate in metropolitan areas has outperformed money printing machines and promoted new housing reform</p><p><b>1) From a global perspective, a country's real estate market depends on: economic growth, demographic change, money supply, and housing system. Among them, the first two are fundamental factors; Over-issuance of currency will lead to a sharp rise in domestic local currency house prices, but not necessarily a sharp rise in US dollar house prices, that is, it may not necessarily have investment value from a global perspective; Housing system is the policy orientation of a country's real estate market.</b></p><p><b>2) Real estate has anti-inflation attributes and can partly share the dividend of economic growth, and real estate in metropolitan areas of most countries is one of the few assets that can outperform money printing machines.</b>From 1970 to Q1 2021, the growth rate of local currency house prices in 23 economies all exceeded the growth rate of their respective CPI to varying degrees. The average annual growth of real house prices in the United Kingdom, New Zealand, Hong Kong, China and Malaysia after deducting CPI can still reach over 3%, while the growth of real house prices in Japan and Germany after deducting CPI is close to 0. Compared with nominal GDP growth in local currencies, in Q1 1970-2021, only a few economies, such as New Zealand, outperformed house prices out of 23 economies, meaning that house prices in most economies can only partially share the economic growth dividend.</p><p><b>In the long run, the excessive issuance of global currency is a common phenomenon. The growth rate of broad money is mostly higher than the nominal GDP growth, and there are not many assets that can outperform money printing machines. Real estate in metropolitan areas of most countries is one of them.</b>From an international perspective, the average annual growth rate of house prices in the UK from 1987 to 2020 was 5.6%, which was higher than the average annual growth rate of nominal GDP of 4.5%, but still lower than the average annual growth rate of broad money of 7.1%; U.S. home prices grew at an average annual rate of 4.5% from 1960 to 2020, while nominal GDP and M2 grew at an average annual rate of 6.3% and 7.1%, respectively. Looking at metropolitan areas, in the United States, the New York-Jersey-White Plains subdivision recorded an average annual price growth of 5.8% from 1975 to 2020, down from 6.8% of M2 in the same period and the same as 5.8% of GDP. In China, the average annual growth rate of the broad money supply M2 in the past 40 years has been 15%. Since 1998, the average annual compound growth rate of the average sales price of newly-built houses in China has reached 7.72%, which is nearly 8 percentage points lower than the growth rate of M2 in the same period, while the house prices in first-tier cities are basically the same as the growth rate of M2.</p><p><b>3) From the perspective of global asset allocation, some emerging economies with great economic growth potential, especially their core cities, have great investment potential.</b>Generally speaking, emerging economies have serious excessive currency issuance, and house prices have increased greatly. However, from the perspective of global asset allocation, investors are concerned about the increase of US dollar house prices, that is, excluding the exchange rate change caused by the relative excessive currency issuance, while the increase of US dollar house prices is mainly related to the nominal GDP growth of US dollar, which can decompose economic growth, population change, housing system and other factors. Some emerging economies with great economic growth potential may have a \"golden age\" similar to the past of China's real estate market in the future, but they need to pay attention to political, legal and other related risks.</p><p><b>4) Build a residential-oriented new housing system in China.</b>The development of China's real estate in 20 years shows that short-term regulation cannot solve the fundamental contradiction of long-term imbalance between supply and demand, and deepening the reform of housing system is the fundamental to realize the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.</p><p><b>First, reform the \"linkage between people and land\" and optimize land supply.</b>At present, the \"people-land linkage\" is linked between the number of settled agricultural migrants and the supply of construction land, which can't solve the contradiction between the population inflow in hot cities and the shortage of housing supply. In the future, the new permanent population should be linked with land supply, and the balance of cultivated land occupation and compensation across provinces should be linked with the increase or decrease of urban and rural land use, such as the land sales index in northeast and west regions, which can effectively solve the problem of massive waste of land use index in northeast and west regions. Strictly implement the principle of \"linking the inventory elimination cycle with land supply\", and optimize the current land supply mode.</p><p><b>The second is to maintain the long-term stability of monetary policy and real estate financial policy.</b>Implement a long-term and stable housing credit financial policy to stabilize the expectations of buyers, support the demand for rigid and improved housing purchases, and at the same time curb speculative demand. Support the reasonable financing needs of housing enterprises, standardize the use of financing, and prevent excessive financing.</p><p><b>The third is to transform the housing supply structure and enrich the supply subjects.</b>At present, China's housing supply system emphasizes sales over leasing, and a multi-subject supply-oriented housing system has not yet been established. In the future, the main supplier will change from developers to the government, developers, leasing agencies, long-term leasing companies and other suppliers; The supply form will also shift from commercial housing to commercial housing, rental housing, shared property housing and other categories. However, the exploration of housing supply structure and the introduction of policies must be adapted to local conditions, and cities with net population outflow need to be vigilant against blindly following the trend.</p><p><b>Fourth, steadily promote the pilot project of property tax.</b>With the end of the era of large-scale development and the reduction of land transfer fees and tax revenue in transactions in the era of stock housing, it is the general trend to introduce property tax. From international experience, property tax is usually regarded as an important and stable source of local fiscal revenue by mature market economies. The general principle of property tax reform is \"legislation first, full authorization and step-by-step promotion\". \"Legislation first\" means legislation first and then levy; \"Full authorization\" means authorizing all localities to pilot measures according to local conditions, not one size fits all. According to international experience, the property tax itself is the local main tax; \"Distributed advancement\" means active and steady advancement, and it is necessary to strive for mature plans and do a good job in guiding social expectations.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/481029\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3c5822c22b6cfd1d0ae2625b7bc085e","relate_stocks":{"515060":"房地产ETF华夏","DRN":"房地产指数ETF-Direxion三倍做多","ARL":"美国房地产投资"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/481029","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1118683392","content_text":"作者：任泽平团队\n导读\n我们提出了业内广为流传的分析框架：房地产长期看人口、中期看土地、短期看金融。本篇放眼全球房价走势，考察驱动不同经济体和主要大都市圈房价走势的因素及规律。\n不同经济体本币房价长期走势差异可解释为四方面：经济增长带来的收入效应、人口总量与结构变动引起的人口效应、货币供应带来的货币幻觉、住房制度影响的供求格局。\n近51年，23个经济体房价平均累计上涨29.6倍、年均增长超6%。依据房价涨幅大小，可分为三类：一是南非、新西兰等4个经济体房价累计涨幅在60倍以上和年均增长8.5%-10%；二是房价累计涨幅在5-50倍之间和年均增长5.5%-8%之间的，有爱尔兰、澳大利亚等14个经济体；三是房价累计涨幅在5倍以内和年均增长低于4%的以内的，有泰国、瑞士等5个经济体。\n疫情期间房价涨幅较大，其源于各国实施量化宽松政策、疫情积压的改善需求释放等。近一年主要经济体房价平均上涨超7%，土耳其上涨32%，新西兰上涨22%，而亚洲主要国家涨幅低于全球平均，新加坡房价涨幅最大，为6.1%；中国房价涨幅为4.3%。\n一国内部人口流入的大都市圈房价涨幅最大。伦敦房价53年上涨113倍，内伦敦涨幅更大；日本地价在泡沫破灭前36年上涨82倍，六个核心城市涨幅更是高达210倍。\n我们呼吁推动新一轮房改（新房改）迫在眉睫，以人地挂钩、控制货币和房产税为核心加快构建房地产长效机制，促进房地产市场长期平稳健康发展，还有最后十年时间窗口。\n正文\n1  不同经济体房价涨幅差异：经济增长、人口变化、货币供应、住房制度\n1.1 近51年23个经济体房价走势差异明显\n1970年Q1-2021年Q1，23个经济体房价平均累计上涨29.6倍、年均增长超6%。依据房价涨幅大小，可分为三类：\n一是南非、新西兰、西班牙、英国等4个经济体房价累计涨幅在60倍以上和年均增长8.5%-10%。南非、新西兰房价累计涨幅分别高达110.5倍、86.9倍、年均增长分别为9.7%、9.2%，分别位居23个经济体中第一、第二；英国房价累计涨幅62.3倍，年均增长8.6%，位居23经济体中第三；西班牙1979年Q1-2021年Q1房价累计涨幅60.2倍，年均增长8.6%。\n二是房价累计涨幅在5-50倍之间和年均增长5.5%-8%之间的，有爱尔兰、澳大利亚、中国香港、挪威、意大利、加拿大、瑞典、法国、丹麦、荷兰、芬兰、马来西亚、美国、比利时14个经济体。爱尔兰、澳大利亚房价累计上涨48.1倍、47.3倍，年均增长均为7.9%；中国香港1979年Q1-2021年Q1年房价累计上涨19.9倍，年均增长7.7%；马来西亚1988年Q1-2021年Q1年房价累计上涨5.1倍，年均增长5.6%；其他10国涨幅在15-40倍之间，年均增速在5.5%-7.5%。\n三是房价累计涨幅在5倍以内和年均增长低于4%的以内的，有泰国、瑞士、韩国、德国、日本5个经济体。其中泰国1991Q1-2021Q1年上涨1.8倍，年均增长3.5%；韩国1975年Q1-2021年Q1房价累计上涨3.2倍、年均增长3.2%;1970年Q1-2021年Q1，瑞士、德国、日本房价累计上涨4.8倍、3.6倍、2.7倍，年均增长3.5%、3.0%、2.6%。\n\n\n随着经济金融全球化深入推进，全球房价走势联动性逐渐增强。比如，1980年代中后期北欧四国房价下跌，1990年代初日韩房价下跌，1997年东南亚房价下跌，2007年全球房地产下跌。从房价走势看，近51年23个经济体可大致分为四类：\n一是房价基本持续上行、期间调整幅度小的经济体，有澳大利亚、新西兰、加拿大、法国等4个。1970年以来上述4国任何一次下行周期中累计下跌幅度均未超过9%。其中，澳大利亚、新西兰、加拿大等3国未曾出现连续两年下跌的情况；法国在1992-1995年、2008-2009年、2011-2015年三次明显调整，但三次累计跌幅均未曾超过7%。\n二是房价曾大幅下挫但后期上行超过之前高点的经济体，有英国、美国、瑞士、荷兰、南非、挪威、中国香港、马来西亚、泰国等14个。比如，荷兰房价在1979-1982年暴跌近30%、2008-2013年大跌超19%，南非房价在1984-1986年下跌11%，芬兰房价在1990-1992年暴跌37%，瑞士房价在1990-1998大跌22%，马来西亚、泰国分别在1997-1998、1998-1999年累计下跌均超过11%，中国香港在1998-2003年累计暴跌超60%，美国房价在2007-2011年大跌超30%，英国房价在1990-1992年下跌近11%、2008-2009年下跌超13%。上述经济体房价在大幅下跌后继续向上，现均已超过之前高点。\n三是前期房价泡沫破灭、至今仍不及高点的经济体，有日本、西班牙、爱尔兰、意大利等4个。虽然时代和国别不同，但历次房地产泡沫堆积无一例外受到流动性过剩和低利率的刺激，而历次房地产泡沫崩溃则都跟货币收紧和加息有关。日本、西班牙、爱尔兰、意大利房价分别在1990、2007、2007、2008年见顶，其中前三个国家房价近几年稍有反弹，2020年上述四国房价仅分别相当于峰值的63.4%、84.7%、84.8%、83.2%。\n四是房价走势基本平稳、涨幅总体较小的经济体，只有德国1个。1970年以来德国房价有三次比较大的上涨周期：1971-1981年累计上涨近1.8倍，1987-1994年累计上涨35.1%，2009-2021年Q1累计上涨67.6%；而在任何一个下行周期中累计下跌未曾超过10%。\n\n\n\n\n1.2 本币房价长期走势与经济增长、人口变化、货币供应及住房制度相关\n不同经济体本币房价长期走势差异可解释为四方面：经济增长带来的收入效应、人口总量与结构变动引起的人口效应、货币供应带来的货币幻觉、住房制度影响的供求格局。房地产兼具消费品属性（居住需求，包括刚需和改善性需求）和金融属性（投资投机需求，并可以加杠杆），因而房价不仅取决于供需（人口及居民收入、土地供给），还与货币供应密切相关。从全球房地产市场运行经验看，在无争、瘟疫、自然灾害、经济金融危机等冲击的情况下，一国房价随着经济发展而长期上涨。\n1970-2021年Q1，23个经济体本币房价年均增速、本币名义GDP增速分别为6.3%、7.5%，二者较为接近、且相关系数为0.52；如剔除泰国、马来西亚，21个经济体的相关系数为0.54；如剔除泰国、马来西亚、韩国、中国香港，19个经济体相关系数达0.87。名义GDP可分解为人均不变价GDP、人口、GDP平减指数，加上影响供求格局的住房制度，四因素可较好地解释不同经济体房价长期走势差异。\n\n1）经济增长带来的收入效应。不变价GDP增长反映剔除价格后的真实经济增长，人均本币不变价GDP增长意味着居民实际购买力提高、增加房产需求。1970-2021年Q1,23个经济体本币不变价年均增长的平均数为2.7%、中位数为2.2%，人均本币不变价年均增速的平均数为1.9%、中位数为1.6%（部分经济体数据计算从有房价数据时开始，西班牙、中国香港、韩国、马来西亚、泰国分别从1971、1979、1975、1988、1991年开始）。其中，韩国人均本币不变价GDP年均增长高达5.3%,爱尔兰、中国香港、马来西亚、泰国年均增长均在2.5%以上，其他经济体多在2%以下，南非仅有0.2%。\n\n2）人口总量与结构变化引起的人口效应。人口对经济体层面房价的影响主要体现在如下三个方面：\n一是人口总量变动影响房价。人口总量变动包括自然增长、跨国（境）人口流动，一般而言，人口规模变化与住房需求呈正比。根据世界银行数据，2019年全球生育率为2.4，其中高收入、中高收入、中低收入、低收入经济体总和生育率分别为1.6、1.8、2.7、4.6，高收入和中高收入生育率已经不足以弥补人口世代更替。但高收入经济体吸引了大量人口跨国流入。1960-2020年，高收入经济体人口净流入规模累计1.4亿，来自中高、中低、低收入经济体的比例分别为26.4%、50.0%、27.1%。中高收入经济体人口生活水平接近高收入经济体，迁移动力不强；低收入经济体人口迁移动力强，但难以承担迁移成本；中低收入经济体人口迁移动力强，且能承担迁移成本。根据联合国统计，德国人口在2004-2011年一度累计减少约230万、后因移民重回增长，日本人口于2009开始负增长，意大利人口从2016年开始负增长。\n二是人口结构变化影响房价。20-50岁主力置业人群、家庭户规模等人口结构变化，将引致住房需求变化。在家庭户规模方面，由于结婚年龄推迟、不婚率和离婚率提高、低生育率、寿命延长、人口老龄化、人口流动等，导致全球家庭户规模呈小型化趋势，这增加了一定的住房需求。1960-2015年，美国家庭户规模从3.33降至2.54人，日本从4.14人降至2.39人；此外，1980-2015年，韩国从4.78人降至2.73人。在主力置业人群方面，美国20-49岁人口规模尚在持续增长，日本、韩国、英国分别已在1996、2004、2011年见顶，主力购房人群的规模变化对房地产市场具有非常显著的影响。\n三是人口通过经济增长影响房价。人口红利是许多追赶经济体过去经济高速增长的重要源泉，在人口红利消失后经济往往转为中速或低速增长。\n\n\n3）货币供应带来的货币幻觉。从国际经验看，在经济发展过程中，绝大部分国家均存在不同程度的货币超发，从而引起资产价格变化。一般而言，广义货币供应增速高则通胀高。1970-2021Q1年，23个经济体年均GDP平减指数平均数为4.3%、中位数为4.0%，不仅在绝对水平上与23个经济体房价年均增长的平均数6.3%较为接近，而且波动较为一致。比如，1970-2021年Q1，南非广义货币增长532.5倍，在货币大幅超发下南非名义GDP增长390.2倍，实际GDP仅增长1.9倍，GDP平减指数增长130.2倍，房价上涨101.6倍；美国广义货币增长33.2倍，名义GDP增长19.0倍，实际GDP上涨2.8倍，GDP平减指数增长5.2倍，房价上涨13倍。但是，货币超发易滋生房地产等资产价格泡沫，极端情况下甚至可能引发经济危机，比如1990年代日本房地产泡沫和2007年美国次贷危机。\n由于新兴经济体广义货币增长较快，因而以本币计算的房价涨幅较发达经济体更大。根据世界银行数据，2001-2020年印度、墨西哥等9个代表性新兴经济体广义货币年均增速平均为13.7%，明显高于英美日等6个代表性发达经济体的5.3%.据BIS统计，2010-2020年新兴经济体房价年均增长6.8%，超过发达经济体3.8%的房价年均增速。\n\n4）住房制度影响的供求格局。住房制度是一国房地产市场导向，一个好的住房制度能使房价长期稳定、支持实体经济发展，一个坏的住房制度可能引发房价暴涨暴跌、削弱甚至掏空实体经济。德国房价之所以长期稳定，关键在于其居住导向的住房制度设计，三大支柱分别为：中性稳健的货币政策与住房金融体系，鼓励居民长期持有住房、打击投机的税收制度，保护租户权益、鼓励长期租房的租赁制度。新加坡目前形成以组屋为主、私宅为辅的二元化供应体系，供给结构呈现“廉租房-廉价房-改善型组屋-私宅”的阶梯化分布，住房自有率超过90%，基本实现居者有其屋。\n\n1.3 美元房价涨幅与本币房价涨幅差异明显\n以美元计，1970-2021年Q1，23个经济体房价涨幅发生明显变化，且美元房价涨幅与美元名义GDP增长存在一定相关性。如果一经济体货币超发较美国严重，则货币将对美元贬值，因此本币房价大幅上涨并不意味着美元房价大幅上涨，在全球来看并不一定具备投资价值。依据美元房价涨幅，可大体分为四类：一是累计涨幅超过50倍和年均增长超过8%，仅新西兰1个。二是累计涨幅25-35倍和年均增长7%-7.5%，有英国、荷兰、西班牙3个经济体。三是累计涨幅10-20倍和年均增长5%-6.9%，有爱尔兰、澳大利亚、挪威、比利时、意大利、日本等14个经济体。四是累计涨幅低于9倍和年均增长5%以下，有德国、马来西亚、南非、泰国、韩国5个经济体。与本币房价涨幅相比，变化最大的是南非，1970-2021Q1年本币房价涨幅高达110.5倍，但美元房价涨幅仅3.8倍。此外，瑞士本币房价涨幅仅4.8倍，但美元房价达25.9倍；意大利本币房价上涨34.7倍，但美元房价涨幅缩至12.1倍；德国本币房价上涨3.6倍，美元房价上涨8.8倍。\n从相关系数看，23个经济体美元房价增长与美元名义GDP增长的相关系数仅为0.20，相关性较弱，但如果剔除美元名义GDP增长75.3倍、美元房价上涨仅0.7倍的韩国，以及美元名义GDP增长99.6倍、美元房价上涨仅28.7倍的爱尔兰，剩下21个经济体的相关系数则达0.77；这表明，从全球地产资产配置的角度看，一个经济体美元房价增长与美元名义GDP增长的正相关性大体上是成立的。不同经济体的美元房价长期走势差异也可以类似本币房价上期走势进行相应因素分解，区别在于通过汇率机制剔除了一个经济体相对美国的货币超发因素。\n\n1.4 疫情下的全球房价涨幅明显\n近一年主要经济体房价平均上涨超7%，土耳其上涨32%，新西兰超20%。根据KnightFrank数据，2020年Q1至2021年Q1，土耳其房价上涨32%，高居榜首；紧随其后的新西兰上涨22%；卢森堡位居第三，涨幅为16.6%；斯洛伐克位居第四，涨幅为15.5%；美国位居第五，涨幅为13%，创2005年以来最大涨幅。而亚洲主要国家涨幅低于全球平均，新加坡房价涨幅最大，为6.1%；紧随其后的日本上涨5.7%；中国房价涨幅为4.3%。\n疫情期间房价涨幅较大源于各国实施量化宽松政策、疫情积压的改善需求释放等。1）从货币政策看，为刺激疫情冲击下的经济复苏，各国央行实施量化宽松政策。一方面，量化宽松政策下市场上的流动资金变多，通过企业纾困资金、失业救济金等方式到了民众手中。同时在宽松货币政策下，房贷利率降低，如美国抵押贷款银行协会锚定的30年固定抵押贷款利率达到历史新低值3.08%。另一方面，量化宽松政策带来的货币贬值让民众急于寻找保值资产，具备保值增值属性的房地产成为投资的首选。2)从需求看，疫情期间积压的改善需求，在疫情得到一定控制后释放。其次，疫情这类“黑天鹅”事件让越来越多投资者开始试图通过分散配置资产来降低风险，拥有第二套住房成为更多高净值人士的选择。3)从供给看，宽松货币政策引发资产价格普遍上涨，原材料价格上涨增加建筑成本，同时疫情导致工人短缺，加剧原材料供给紧张，进一步推高原材料价格，进而推动房价上涨。\n\n2  一国内部哪个区域房价涨幅最大：人口流入的大都市圈\n2.1 英国：伦敦房价53年上涨113倍，内伦敦涨幅更大\n伦敦有三个范围：伦敦城（City of London）、大伦敦（Greater London）、伦敦都市区。伦敦城即伦敦金融城、面积很小，一般意义上的伦敦指大伦敦地区，包括319平方公里的内伦敦和1254平方公里的外伦敦，土地面积合计1573平方公里、占英国的0.6%；伦敦都市区则由大伦敦及周边地区组成。由于城市规划问题等造成大城市病突出，英国政府一度控制伦敦特别是内伦敦人口、在二战后外迁产业、大量建设新城，1941-1991年年伦敦人口从862万降至639万，后回升至2017年的882万，当前占英国人口比重为13.4%。但在经济作用下，伦敦周边地区人口长期集聚，1931-2001年英国东南地区人口从不到1300万增至1800多万，占比从27.5%增至31.1%。\n\n近53年大伦敦地区房价涨幅达113倍，远超英国、英格兰地区房价平均涨幅（71、81倍），和英国名义GDP涨幅（51倍）。根据英国国家统计办公室（ONS）数据，在英国，1968年-2021年3月，大伦敦地区房价从0.44万英镑/套上涨至50万英镑/套，英格兰地区从0.34万英镑/套上涨至27.5万英镑/套，全国从0.36万英镑/套上涨至25.6万英镑/套，伦敦地区房价涨幅达113倍，高于全国的71倍和英格兰地区的81倍。而同期（1967-2020年）英国名义GDP上涨50.7倍、年均增长7.7%，房价涨幅明显跑赢名义GDP增长。\n分阶段看，大伦敦与英格兰、英国房价涨幅在1994年之前非常接近，但在1995年后波动明显加大，特别是在2008年全球金融危机之后。1968-1994年，大伦敦、英格兰、英国房价涨幅分别为15.0倍、14.7倍、14.6倍，差异较小；但之后至2018年3月，房价涨幅明显分化，分别为5.3倍、3.5倍、3倍。受2008年金融危机影响，2009年4月大伦敦、英格兰、英国房价同比下跌16.6%、15.0%、14.9%；之后，在货币刺激量化宽松背景下，房价逐渐回升，至2018年3月年均增速分别为7.5%、4.5%、4.1%。\n\n从伦敦都市区内部看，近26年大伦敦房价涨幅超6.5倍，位居地区首位，周边地区涨幅均低于6.0%。1995年1月至2021年3年，大伦敦房价上涨6.7倍，而Kent、Hertfordshire、Essex、Windsor and Maidenhead、Surrey周边地区的涨幅分别为5.5、5.7、5.5、5.2、5.4倍，大伦敦区房价涨幅明显高于周边地区。此外，该时期英国第二大城市伯明翰房价上涨仅4.6倍，明显低于伦敦及周边地区涨幅。\n从大伦敦内部看，近26年内伦敦核心区域房价涨幅超7倍，外伦敦房价涨幅低于6.5倍。1995年1月至2021年3月，内伦敦房价从7.83万英镑/套涨至59.45万英镑/套，上涨7.6倍；外伦敦房价从7.30万英镑/套涨至45.10万英镑/套，上涨6.2倍。当前伦敦房价最贵是Kensington and Chelsea（122.72万英镑/套），其次是City of Westminster（93.68万英镑/套），分别较1995年1月上涨6.7倍、7.0倍。\n\n\n2.2 法国：巴黎市房价55年上涨44倍，涨幅超过周边地区\n巴黎有三个范围：巴黎市（或称小巴黎）、大巴黎（包括近郊3省）、巴黎大区（包括远郊4省，又称“法兰西岛”），土地面积分别为105、761、12001平方公里，其中巴黎大区土地面积占法国的1.8%。随着产业集聚，法国人口长期持续向巴黎及周边地区集聚，1876-2014年巴黎大区人口从332万人基本持续增至1203万人，人口占比从8.6%提升至18.8%，经济份额从1990年的28.4%提升至2014年的30.4%。期间，出于控制人口以治理大城市病的目的，巴黎市有过较长时间减少，1931-1999年从289万持续降至213万，之后回升至2018年的218万。\n近55年巴黎市55年房价上涨43.7倍，明显超过法国房价平均涨幅（26.6倍）、法国名义GDP涨幅（29.5倍），其年均增速分别为7.2%、6.2%、6.4%。在此之前的1945-1965年，受战后重建、婴儿潮及货币大幅超发等影响，巴黎市、法国房价分别暴涨54.1、38.3倍，年均增长22.2%、20.1%，但仍然落后于名义GDP年均增长（1950-1965年，51.2%）。\n分阶段看，1966年之后巴黎市房价走势可分为四个阶段：1）1966-1990年，房价快速上涨期。该时期巴黎市房价、法国房价、法国名义GDP年均增长10.7%、9.3%、10.6%。2）1992-1997年，房价下跌期。由于1985-1990年左右巴黎市房地产投机旺盛、房价涨幅过大（其中1987-1990年连续4年上涨均超过17%），巴黎市房价开始大幅下跌。该时期巴黎市房价、法国房价、法国名义GDP年均增长-6.1%、-0.4%、3.8%，至1997年底巴黎房价惨跌至1991年的69%。3）1998-2015年，波动增长期。该时期巴黎市房价、法国房价、法国名义GDP年均增长7.2%、5.0%、3.0%。其中，2013-2015年巴黎房价连续下跌。但2015年后巴黎房价迎来一波较大涨幅。\n\n巴黎市房价涨幅位居巴黎大区之首，1997年Q4至2021年Q1，巴黎市房价涨幅超3.5倍，明显高于近郊三省和远郊四省。由于巴黎市土地面积较小（105平方公里），稍大于北京市东城区和西城区面积之和（93平方公里），因此我们不再对巴黎市内部房价进行分析，而是将巴黎市作为巴黎大区的核心区域，分析其与巴黎大区其他区域房价的走势差异。根据法国统计局（INSEE）数据，1997年Q4至2021年Q1，巴黎市房价涨幅达3.7倍，明显超过近郊三省的2.5倍、远郊四省的1.6倍，该时期法国名义GDP涨幅为0.8倍。近郊三省Hauts de Seine、Seine St Denis、Val de Marne房价涨幅分别为2.6倍、2.5倍、2.4倍。远郊四省Yvelines、Val d'Oise、Seine and Marne、Essonne房价涨幅分别为1.8倍、1.7倍、1.5倍、1.5倍。\n\n2.3 美国：纽约市房价46年上涨9倍，皇后区表现较优\n纽约有多重涵义：纽约市、纽约都会区、纽约联合统计区等。其中，纽约市土地面积为789平方公里，2015年人口855万；纽约都会区（NewYork-Newark-Jersey City Metropolitan Statistical Area，NY-NJ-PAMSA）面积约1.7万平方公里，2015年人口2018万；纽约联合统计区（New York-Newark CombinedStatistical Area）由纽约都会区及毗邻都会区组成，2015年人口2372万。从人口看，由于美国经济重心向西海岸、南海岸偏移，1950-2015年纽约地区人口虽基本持续增长，但增幅84%远小于洛杉矶地区的328%，这使得纽约地区的人口占比明显下滑。期间，因人口郊区化及制造业衰退，纽约市人口在1950-1980年从789万减至702万；后因城市更新及产业转型升级等，回升至2015年的855万，2019年人口小幅下降到842万人。\n近46年纽约市房价上涨超9倍，高于美国平均水平，但低于纽约市周边及洛杉矶地区房价涨幅。根据美国联邦住房金融局（FHFA）统计，1975-2021年Q1，美国、纽约市、纽约-泽西-白原分区（纽约都会区分区之一）（1976-2021年Q1）、洛杉矶-长滩-格伦代尔分区（洛杉矶都会区分区之一）房价分别上涨8.1倍、9.9倍、12.9倍、19.7倍，年均增速分别为4.9%、5.3%、6.0%、6.8%。纽约-泽西-白原分区房价涨幅虽不及洛杉矶-长滩-格伦代尔分区，但仍显著高于美国平均水平。此外，该时期美国名义GDP上涨13.7倍、年均增长6.0%，M2增长20.5倍、年均增长6.9%。这意味着，纽约市房价跑输同时期美国名义GDP和M2，而洛杉矶-长滩-格伦代尔分区跑赢美国名义GDP，接近M2。\n\n\n在纽约都会区内部，纽约分区房价近35年上涨超4倍，在纽约都会区四大分区中位居第二。除纽约-泽西市-白原分区外，纽约都会区还包括NassauCounty–Suffolk County、Dutchess County-Putnam County、Newark三个分区。四大分区房价走势基本一致，其中1986年-2021年Q1,Nassau County–Suffolk County分区上涨4.3倍，年均涨幅为4.9%，位居第一；纽约-泽西市-白原分区上涨4.1倍，年均涨幅为4.6%，位居第二；Newark分区和DutchessCounty-Putnam County分区（1986-2018年Q1）分别上涨3.4倍、2.6倍，年均涨幅分别为4.3%、4.6%。\n在纽约市内部，曼哈顿区近30年房价上涨近2倍，高于纽约市水平。1991-2021年Q1，纽约市曼哈顿区房价上涨1.9倍、年均上涨3.7%，皇后区（1991-2020年）房价上涨2.8倍、年均上涨4.7%，而该时期纽约市和纽约分区房价分别上涨1.8倍、2.0倍，年均增速分别为3.5%、3.8%。\n\n2.4 日本：六个核心城市曾36年上涨210倍\n东京有三个范围：东京都区，东京都，包括千叶县、琦玉县和神奈川县的东京圈，土地面积分别为627、2188、13558平方公里。东京圈土地面积占日本的3.6%，2020年人口3694万，占日本的29.3%，当前地区生产总值约占日本的1/3。\n日本人口流动分为两个阶段：在1974年前，全国人口基本持续向东京圈、大阪圈、名古屋圈三极集聚。1884-1973年，除战争影响外，东京圈人口406万人增至2607万人，占比从10.8%增至23.9%；大阪圈人口从392万人增至1636万人，占比从10.5%增至15.0%；名古屋圈人口从311万人增至918万人，占比从8.3%增至8.4%。之后则转为向东京圈一极集中，而名古屋圈人口流入流出基本平衡、大阪圈长期净流出；到2016年，东京圈、大阪圈、名古屋圈人口分别为3629、1831、1134万，占比分别为28.6%、14.4%、8.9%，该时期大阪圈和名古屋圈人口增长主要源于自然增长。东京都人口在1970-1997年人口增长停滞，主要在于东京都区产业转移、人口外迁，但东京都非都区、东京圈三县人口显著增长。\n\n日本地价在泡沫破灭前36年上涨82倍，六个核心城市涨幅更是高达210倍。在1991年房地产泡沫破灭前，日本地价除1975年调整外保持持续上涨，1955-1991年上涨82倍，超过该时期55倍的名义GDP涨幅；其中，六个核心城市地价上涨210倍，非核心城市上涨78倍。分阶段看，1955-1974年日本东京区部、横滨、名古屋、京都、大阪、神户等六个核心城市地价上涨40.6倍、年均21.7%，其他城市上涨29.6倍、年均19.7%，同期名义GDP上涨15倍、年均15.7%。1975-1991年六个核心城市地价上涨4.5倍、年均11.2%，其他城市上涨1.7倍、年均6.4%，同期名义GDP上涨2.2倍、年均7.5%。\n1975年日本房价调整后还能继续上涨，主要在于经济增长和主力购房人群支撑，但因后期上涨过快、出生人口大幅下滑、1990年代主力置业人群见顶以及日本政府错误应对等，导致1990年代初房地产泡沫破灭。之后日本地价持续调整至2005年，2017年日本地价仅是峰值的47.1%。六个核心城市地价从1992年一直下跌到2005年，在经历了2006-2008年的短期上涨之后，因全球金融危机于2009-2012年再次下跌，2013年开始回升至今，2017年地价仅相当于1991年峰值的35.3%；因人口流出，日本非核心城市地价从1992年一直下跌，2017年地价相当于1991年峰值的47.5%。\n\n东京圈地价走势与日本整体基本一致，但峰值在1990年、较日本整体早1年，1976-1990年上涨3.4倍、年均11.1%；之后持续下跌至2005年，2014年已领先于全国止跌回升。东京圈、大阪圈房价在1990年见顶，名古屋圈和地方地价分别在1991、1992年见顶。1976年至房价峰值期间，东京圈、大阪圈、名古屋圈、地方地价分别上涨3.4、3.9、2.0、0.9倍，分别年均增长11.1%、12.0%、7.7%、4.0%；特别是在房价泡沫破灭前，1987-1988年东京圈地价暴涨0.95倍，1988-1990年大阪圈地价暴涨1.6倍。而在1976-1991年，日本名义GDP上涨1.8倍、年均增长7.2%，M2上涨2.7倍、年均增长9.0%。\n1990年代初房地产泡沫破灭后，东京圈地价大幅下跌至2005年，2006-2008年开始回升，但受全球金融危机影响于2009年开始再次调整，2014年开始再次回升。至2020年，东京圈、大阪圈、名古屋圈、地方地价仅分别是峰值的40.7%、27.8%、59.0%、56.7%。大阪圈地价之所以调整幅度最为惨烈，是因为其在泡沫破灭前上涨幅度最大、又缺乏人口支撑。\n东京都区部地价在1988年见顶，见顶前五年上涨2倍，同时调整早、止跌快,2005-2020年累计上涨超25%、为东京圈内部最高。东京都及东京都区地价在1988年见顶，较东京圈早2年、较日本整体早3年。在见顶的前五年，东京都区部房价上涨2倍，高于东京都的1.8倍和东京圈1.2倍。见顶后，东京都及东京都区部房价持续下跌至2005年，之后2009-2013年下跌，2014年开始回升。2005-2020年，东京都、东京都区部房价分别累计上涨13.3%、27.5%，东京都非区部房价基本持平，东京圈房价累计下跌1.7。2016年，东京都、区部、非都区房价分别相当于其峰值的42.7%、46.7%、38.8%，与东京圈的40.7%非常接近。\n\n\n3   结论：过去51年，大都市圈房产跑赢印钞机，推动新房改\n1）从全球视角看，一国房地产市场取决于：经济增长、人口变化、货币供应、住房制度。其中，前两项是基本面因素；货币超发会导致国内本币房价大涨但不一定美元房价大涨，即在全球视角下不一定具备投资价值；住房制度是一国房地产市场的政策导向。\n2）房地产具有抗通胀属性，能部分分享经济增长红利，并且多数国家的大都市圈房产是能够跑赢印钞机的少数资产之一。1970-2021年Q1，23个经济体本币房价增幅均不同程度超过各自CPI涨幅，英国、新西兰中国香港、马来西亚在扣除CPI后实际房价年均增长仍能达3%以上，而日本、德国扣除CPI后实际房价增长接近于0。与本币名义GDP增长相比，1970-2021年Q1，23个经济体中只有新西兰等少数经济体房价跑赢，这意味着多数经济体房价只能部分分享经济增长红利。\n长期看，全球货币超发是普遍现象，广义货币增速多高于名义GDP增长，能够跑赢印钞机的资产不多，在多数国家大都市圈的房地产是其中之一。从国际看，1987-2020年英国房价年均增长5.6%，虽高于4.5%的名义GDP年均增速，但仍然低于7.1%的广义货币年均增速；1960-2020年美国房价年均增长4.5%，而名义GDP和M2年均增速分别为6.3%、7.1%。从大都市圈看，在美国，1975-2020年，纽约-泽西-白原分区房价年均增长5.8%，低于同期M2的6.8%，与GDP的5.8%相同。在中国，过去四十年广义货币供应量M2年均增速15%，1998年以来全国新建住房销售均价年均复合增速达7.72%，低于同期M2增速近8个百分点，而一线城市房价基本与M2增速持平。\n3）从全球资产配置角度看，一些经济增长潜力大的新兴经济体、特别是其核心城市房地产有较大投资潜力。一般而言，新兴经济体货币超发比较严重，房价涨幅也较大，但从全球资产配置角度看，投资者关注的是美元房价涨幅，即剔除了货币相对超发导致的汇率变化，而美元房价涨幅则主要与美元名义GDP增长相关，可分解经济增长、人口变化、住房制度等因素。一些经济增长潜力大的新兴经济体未来有可能出现类似中国房地产市场过去的“黄金时代”，不过需要注意政治、法律等相关风险。\n4）构建居住导向的中国新住房制度。中国房地产二十年发展表明，短期调控无法解决长期供需不平衡的根本矛盾，深化住房制度改革才是实现房地产市场平稳健康发展的根本。\n一是改革“人地挂钩”，优化土地供应。目前推行的“人地挂钩”为农业转移人口落户数量与建设用地供应量挂钩，并不能解决热点城市人口流入与住房供应紧张之间的矛盾，未来应推行新增常住人口与土地供应挂钩、跨省耕地占补平衡与城乡用地增减挂钩，如东北和西部地区售卖用地指标，可以有效解决目前东北、西部用地指标大量浪费的问题。严格执行“库存去化周期与供地挂钩”原则，优化当前土地供应模式。\n二是保持货币政策和房地产金融政策长期稳定。实行长期稳定的住房信贷金融政策，稳定购房者预期，支持刚需和改善型购房需求，同时抑制投机性需求。支持房企合理融资需求，规范融资用途，防止过度融资。\n三是转变住房供应结构，丰富供应主体。当前中国住房供给体系重销售轻租赁，多元主体供给型的住房体系尚未建立。未来供应主体将从开发商为主转变为政府、开发商、租赁中介公司、长租公司等多方供给；供给形式也将由商品房为主转向商品房、租赁房、共有产权房等多品类。不过，住房供应结构的探索与政策出台须因地制宜，人口净流出城市尤需警惕盲目跟风。\n四是稳步推动房产税试点。随着大开发时代结束，存量房时代下土地出让金减少、交易环节税收减少，推出房产税是大势所趋。从国际经验看，房产税通常被成熟市场经济体作为地方财政收入的重要和稳定来源。房产税改革的总原则是“立法先行、充分授权、分步推进”。“立法先行”是先立法再开征；“充分授权”是授权各地方因地制宜试点、不一刀切，本身房产税按照国际经验就是地方主体税；“分布推进”是积极稳妥推进，要力争方案成熟并做好社会预期引导。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"515060":0.9,"DRN":0.9,"ARL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}