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刘洋_9363
2021-08-02
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The worst season for the US stock market is coming.
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Currently, it is expected that Powell will announce taper at this meeting.</p><p>Specifically, since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen by more than 10% in the first half of the year 19 times in 72 years, but after a strong first half, the median return in August typically falls by 51 basis points.</p><p>Rubner also pointed out that there was no dramatic drop in the first half of this year, and the S&P 500 rose for the sixth consecutive month, marking its longest rise since 2018. However, echoing the above observations, this is not a good thing, given that since August 2010, there have been six declines in the previous 11 Augusts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca60b07fac07ccd13faa80796c2df34d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"278\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Nevertheless, Rubner points out that even without looking back at history, this year's situation can lead to the same conclusion, and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet should be able to explain it very clearly. As the Federal Reserve's policies are gradually rolled out, the market will become even more illiquid, thus intensifying the decline in August and amplifying any negative news.</p><p>In addition, Rubner reviewed two previous \"August crises,\" which occurred in 2011 and 2015 respectively:</p><p><ul><li>2011 coincided with the ongoing debate in the United States over the debt ceiling. Although the issue was resolved in early August, Standard & Poor's subsequently downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA+. Meanwhile, concerns about the European sovereign debt crisis continued to escalate, ultimately leading to a stock market crash in August.</li><li>In 2015, emerging markets experienced turmoil, which then spread to other regions, including the United States and Europe.</li></ul>Looking ahead to August, Rubner said the focus will be on the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting and changes in macroeconomic variables (especially inflation). He also stated that we need to remain vigilant against any unexpected events in the market.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The worst season for the US stock market is coming.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe worst season for the US stock market is coming.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-01 08:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After experiencing the \"strongest two weeks in history\" from July 1 to July 15, the US stock market is about to usher in the worst month in terms of statistics - August.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce4aa20635c056c2425c903c7bfa9919\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>just as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>As credit strategist Scott Rubner calculated, the market trend was downward throughout August, one of the worst times of the year, and reached its climax and turning point at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference. Currently, it is expected that Powell will announce taper at this meeting.</p><p>Specifically, since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen by more than 10% in the first half of the year 19 times in 72 years, but after a strong first half, the median return in August typically falls by 51 basis points.</p><p>Rubner also pointed out that there was no dramatic drop in the first half of this year, and the S&P 500 rose for the sixth consecutive month, marking its longest rise since 2018. However, echoing the above observations, this is not a good thing, given that since August 2010, there have been six declines in the previous 11 Augusts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca60b07fac07ccd13faa80796c2df34d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"278\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Nevertheless, Rubner points out that even without looking back at history, this year's situation can lead to the same conclusion, and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet should be able to explain it very clearly. As the Federal Reserve's policies are gradually rolled out, the market will become even more illiquid, thus intensifying the decline in August and amplifying any negative news.</p><p>In addition, Rubner reviewed two previous \"August crises,\" which occurred in 2011 and 2015 respectively:</p><p><ul><li>2011 coincided with the ongoing debate in the United States over the debt ceiling. Although the issue was resolved in early August, Standard & Poor's subsequently downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA+. Meanwhile, concerns about the European sovereign debt crisis continued to escalate, ultimately leading to a stock market crash in August.</li><li>In 2015, emerging markets experienced turmoil, which then spread to other regions, including the United States and Europe.</li></ul>Looking ahead to August, Rubner said the focus will be on the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting and changes in macroeconomic variables (especially inflation). He also stated that we need to remain vigilant against any unexpected events in the market.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3636809\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37d43f47ff4637f33c2675f14c1cc937","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEX":"标普100","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3636809","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2155894163","content_text":"在经历了7月1日到7月15日历史数据统计的“史上最强劲两周”后，美股即将迎来统计数据上的最糟糕月份——八月。\n\n正如高盛信贷策略师Scott Rubner所统计的那样，整个八月份市场趋势都在走低，这是一年中最糟糕的时节之一，并在杰克逊霍尔全球央行会议上达到高潮和拐点。目前，人们预计鲍威尔将在这次会议上宣布taper。\n具体来看，自1950年以来，标准普尔500指数在72年里有19次在上半年上涨超过10%，但在强劲的上半年之后，8月份的回报率中值通常会下降51个基点。\nRubner还指出，今年上半年没有出现戏剧性的大跌，标准普尔500指数连续第6个月上涨，创下2018年以来最长的上涨时间。然而，与上述观察相呼应这并不是什么好事，毕竟自2010年8月以来，此前的11个8月中有6次下跌。\n\n尽管如此，Rubner指出，即便不回顾历史，今年的状况也能得出同样的结论，美联储的资产负债表就应该能解释得很清楚清楚。随着美联储政策的逐步推出，市场将更加缺乏流动性，因此8月的下跌效应会加剧，任何负面消息都会被放大。\n此外，Rubner还回顾了此前的两次“8月危机”，这两次危机分别发生在2011年和2015年：\n\n2011年，恰逢美国在债务上限问题上的争论不休。尽管这个问题在8月初得到了解决，但标准普尔随后将美国信用评级从AAA下调至AA+。与此同时，对欧洲主权债务危机的担忧持续发酵，最终导致8月股市大跌。\n2015年，新兴市场出现了动荡，进而蔓延到包括美国和欧洲在内的其他地区。\n\n对于接下来的8月，Rubner表示，人们关注的焦点将集中于杰克逊霍尔全球央行会议，以及宏观变量（尤其是通胀）的变化。他同时表示，我们需要对市场中的任何意外保持警惕。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"IVV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":805170547,"gmtCreate":1627867558389,"gmtModify":1703496788331,"author":{"id":"4088655162276330","authorId":"4088655162276330","name":"刘洋_9363","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f739f0dc3399b7621d82075482a8af89","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088655162276330","idStr":"4088655162276330"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"？@","listText":"？@","text":"？@","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805170547","repostId":"2155894163","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2155894163","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1627778319,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2155894163?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-01 08:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The worst season for the US stock market is coming.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2155894163","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在经历了7月1日到7月15日历史数据统计的“史上最强劲两周”后，美股即将迎来统计数据上的最糟糕月份——八月。\n\n正如高盛信贷策略师Scott Rubner所统计的那样，整个八月份市场趋势都在走低，这是","content":"<p>After experiencing the \"strongest two weeks in history\" from July 1 to July 15, the US stock market is about to usher in the worst month in terms of statistics - August.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce4aa20635c056c2425c903c7bfa9919\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>just as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>As credit strategist Scott Rubner calculated, the market trend was downward throughout August, one of the worst times of the year, and reached its climax and turning point at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference. Currently, it is expected that Powell will announce taper at this meeting.</p><p>Specifically, since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen by more than 10% in the first half of the year 19 times in 72 years, but after a strong first half, the median return in August typically falls by 51 basis points.</p><p>Rubner also pointed out that there was no dramatic drop in the first half of this year, and the S&P 500 rose for the sixth consecutive month, marking its longest rise since 2018. However, echoing the above observations, this is not a good thing, given that since August 2010, there have been six declines in the previous 11 Augusts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca60b07fac07ccd13faa80796c2df34d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"278\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Nevertheless, Rubner points out that even without looking back at history, this year's situation can lead to the same conclusion, and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet should be able to explain it very clearly. As the Federal Reserve's policies are gradually rolled out, the market will become even more illiquid, thus intensifying the decline in August and amplifying any negative news.</p><p>In addition, Rubner reviewed two previous \"August crises,\" which occurred in 2011 and 2015 respectively:</p><p><ul><li>2011 coincided with the ongoing debate in the United States over the debt ceiling. Although the issue was resolved in early August, Standard & Poor's subsequently downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA+. Meanwhile, concerns about the European sovereign debt crisis continued to escalate, ultimately leading to a stock market crash in August.</li><li>In 2015, emerging markets experienced turmoil, which then spread to other regions, including the United States and Europe.</li></ul>Looking ahead to August, Rubner said the focus will be on the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting and changes in macroeconomic variables (especially inflation). He also stated that we need to remain vigilant against any unexpected events in the market.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The worst season for the US stock market is coming.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe worst season for the US stock market is coming.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-01 08:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After experiencing the \"strongest two weeks in history\" from July 1 to July 15, the US stock market is about to usher in the worst month in terms of statistics - August.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce4aa20635c056c2425c903c7bfa9919\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>just as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>As credit strategist Scott Rubner calculated, the market trend was downward throughout August, one of the worst times of the year, and reached its climax and turning point at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference. Currently, it is expected that Powell will announce taper at this meeting.</p><p>Specifically, since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen by more than 10% in the first half of the year 19 times in 72 years, but after a strong first half, the median return in August typically falls by 51 basis points.</p><p>Rubner also pointed out that there was no dramatic drop in the first half of this year, and the S&P 500 rose for the sixth consecutive month, marking its longest rise since 2018. However, echoing the above observations, this is not a good thing, given that since August 2010, there have been six declines in the previous 11 Augusts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca60b07fac07ccd13faa80796c2df34d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"278\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Nevertheless, Rubner points out that even without looking back at history, this year's situation can lead to the same conclusion, and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet should be able to explain it very clearly. As the Federal Reserve's policies are gradually rolled out, the market will become even more illiquid, thus intensifying the decline in August and amplifying any negative news.</p><p>In addition, Rubner reviewed two previous \"August crises,\" which occurred in 2011 and 2015 respectively:</p><p><ul><li>2011 coincided with the ongoing debate in the United States over the debt ceiling. Although the issue was resolved in early August, Standard & Poor's subsequently downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA+. Meanwhile, concerns about the European sovereign debt crisis continued to escalate, ultimately leading to a stock market crash in August.</li><li>In 2015, emerging markets experienced turmoil, which then spread to other regions, including the United States and Europe.</li></ul>Looking ahead to August, Rubner said the focus will be on the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting and changes in macroeconomic variables (especially inflation). He also stated that we need to remain vigilant against any unexpected events in the market.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3636809\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37d43f47ff4637f33c2675f14c1cc937","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEX":"标普100","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3636809","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2155894163","content_text":"在经历了7月1日到7月15日历史数据统计的“史上最强劲两周”后，美股即将迎来统计数据上的最糟糕月份——八月。\n\n正如高盛信贷策略师Scott Rubner所统计的那样，整个八月份市场趋势都在走低，这是一年中最糟糕的时节之一，并在杰克逊霍尔全球央行会议上达到高潮和拐点。目前，人们预计鲍威尔将在这次会议上宣布taper。\n具体来看，自1950年以来，标准普尔500指数在72年里有19次在上半年上涨超过10%，但在强劲的上半年之后，8月份的回报率中值通常会下降51个基点。\nRubner还指出，今年上半年没有出现戏剧性的大跌，标准普尔500指数连续第6个月上涨，创下2018年以来最长的上涨时间。然而，与上述观察相呼应这并不是什么好事，毕竟自2010年8月以来，此前的11个8月中有6次下跌。\n\n尽管如此，Rubner指出，即便不回顾历史，今年的状况也能得出同样的结论，美联储的资产负债表就应该能解释得很清楚清楚。随着美联储政策的逐步推出，市场将更加缺乏流动性，因此8月的下跌效应会加剧，任何负面消息都会被放大。\n此外，Rubner还回顾了此前的两次“8月危机”，这两次危机分别发生在2011年和2015年：\n\n2011年，恰逢美国在债务上限问题上的争论不休。尽管这个问题在8月初得到了解决，但标准普尔随后将美国信用评级从AAA下调至AA+。与此同时，对欧洲主权债务危机的担忧持续发酵，最终导致8月股市大跌。\n2015年，新兴市场出现了动荡，进而蔓延到包括美国和欧洲在内的其他地区。\n\n对于接下来的8月，Rubner表示，人们关注的焦点将集中于杰克逊霍尔全球央行会议，以及宏观变量（尤其是通胀）的变化。他同时表示，我们需要对市场中的任何意外保持警惕。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"IVV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
