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2022-02-07

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2021-09-01

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Can US stocks break the "September curse"?

2021-07-08

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Fed's June FOMC Minutes: Inflation Remains Consensus For Now, Methodology Deeply Divided

2021-07-04

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OPEC + Production Increase Talks Frozen, What Does It Mean for Oil Prices?

2021-07-04

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Reminder: U.S. stocks are closed all day on July 5th due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday

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September was the worst month of the year for the S&P 500, with an average decline of 0.56% since 1945, according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. Over the years, the S&P 500 has only risen 45% of the time in September, the lowest chance of a rally in 12 months, according to CFRA data. Since the beginning of this year, the US stock market has been in full swing. On August 30th, local time,...</p><p><a href=\"None\">Web link</a></div></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can US stocks break the \"September curse\"?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan US stocks break the \"September curse\"?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1074704009\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/1481705d51964cf2adea5c7bc55e3092);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">国际金融报 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-01 08:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Over the years, the S&P 500 has only risen 45% of the time in September, the lowest chance of rising in 12 months, according to CFRA data. September was the worst month of the year for the S&P 500, with an average decline of 0.56% since 1945, according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. Over the years, the S&P 500 has only risen 45% of the time in September, the lowest chance of a rally in 12 months, according to CFRA data. Since the beginning of this year, the US stock market has been in full swing. On August 30th, local time,...</p><p><a href=\"None\">Web link</a></div></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a2fd1a464aca83609f7983bf74ba2d5","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF博时","SPY":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175658304","content_text":"CFRA数据显示，历年来，标普500指数在9月只有45%的时间上涨，是12个月份中上涨几率最低的月份。\n\n\n据CFRA首席投资策略师Sam Stovall的统计，9月是标普500指数一年中表现最糟糕的月份，自1945年以来平均跌幅为0.56%。\nCFRA数据显示，历年来，标普500指数在9月只有45%的时间上涨，是12个月份中上涨几率最低的月份。\n今年以来，美股气势如虹，当地时间8月30日，标普500指数涨0.43%，报4528.79点，创下今年第53次收盘新高纪录。\n美股能否继续高歌猛进，打破“九月魔咒”？\n企业高收益支撑牛市表现\n贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官Rick Rieder近日表示，主要企业的强劲收益和现金流意味着美股应该能够维持创纪录的高位。\n据高盛最近研究显示，预期标普500指数成分股公司2021年将追加现金支出，至2.8万亿美元，主要用于资本支出、合并或其他类型的业务投资。与此同时，截至7月，各公司已批准超过6800亿美元的股票回购，此数据仅次于2018年创下的2000年以来最高水平。\n《华尔街日报》指出，这意味着形势与去年相比有了天壤之别，去年各公司为了应对疫情的干扰，曾大幅削减支出，下调股息，还放缓了股票回购计划，同时大举借贷以增强其资产负债表。反观当下，在经济复苏的情况下，企业现金充裕，总体而言都在发布增加支出的计划。\nRieder指出，零售商强劲的财报和科技企业的利润率证明，即使股指创下历史新高，许多股票的回报率仍具有吸引力。他表示，有些股票确实太高了，但不是整个市场。\n美银证券上周的数据显示，企业回购股票规模达到3月中旬以来的最高水平，这是支撑股市的一个潜在因素。美银表示，回购企业以金融股为主，创下2010年以来的最高单周回购额。\n瑞银集团上周上调了标准普尔500指数成分股每股获利预估，称其对经济前景看好。“由于美国家庭去年积累了数万亿美元的储蓄，消费者的资产负债表达到了几十年来的最高水平。此外，就业正在复苏，最近的就业数据好于预期。因此，即使在疫情最严重的时候，消费者支出得到了政府刺激计划的补贴，持续的就业增长应该会推动消费者支出上升”。\n本周五，美国劳工部将公布8月非农业就业报告，经济学家预期新增就业人口将达75万人，相较于7月的大增94.3万人。8月失业率估计由5.4％下降至5.2％。\n或出现高达10%的回调\n尽管市场上仍充斥着乐观情绪，但上周，“股神”巴菲特青睐的市场指标飙升至205%的创纪录高点。\n所谓的“巴菲特指标”，是指美股总市值与美国GDP之比，被投资者和研究人士广泛用来衡量美股是否过热。巴菲特曾将这一指标形容为“任何时刻衡量估值水平的最佳单一指标”。达到创纪录高点表明，当前股票估值过高，崩盘可能即将来临。\n上周，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊·霍尔央行年会上表示，美联储可能在今年年底前开始缩减资产购买，不过他仍认为加息的可能性还很遥远。\n鲍威尔强调，缩减资产购买的时机和速度，不会对加息时机发出直接信号。鲍威尔还援引上世纪50年代的货币政策经验教训称，如果冒然采取了遏制暂时通胀的“不合时宜的政策”，可能带来更大的伤害。\n摩根士丹利指出，随着创纪录的GDP和公司盈利增长、通胀上升以及德尔塔感染率开始下行，美联储取消货币宽松政策的压力可能增大，美联储最快有可能在9月的议息会议上宣布缩表决定。同时，从历史表现来看，9月往往是美股全年表现最疲软的月份，所以投资者需要警惕美股可能会出现高达10%的回调。\n此外，根据来自Refinitiv旗下IBES的统计数据，随着美国经济从疫情封锁中持续复苏，标普500指数成份股公司第二季度利润同比增长95%，创1994年启动统计以来的最高纪录。不过，强劲反弹的势头即将戛然而止，机构分析师预测，三季度美国企业盈利增速将大幅回落至30%。\n花旗首席股票策略师Tobias Levkovich从今年6月就预计标普500指数今年年终前会下跌至4000点左右，并预计美股的调整最快可能就在9月。他给出的四个值得市场担忧的因素包括美联储缩减购债、通胀不断上升、企业利润率压力和企业税上调。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513500":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"QID":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2439,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149153896,"gmtCreate":1625710634315,"gmtModify":1703746872822,"author":{"id":"4088483890194020","authorId":"4088483890194020","name":"yuilow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7af79272fb44775303405ebf6720a4f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088483890194020","idStr":"4088483890194020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/149153896","repostId":"2149316261","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2149316261","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1625687502,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2149316261?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-08 03:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Fed's June FOMC Minutes: Inflation Remains Consensus For Now, Methodology Deeply Divided","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2149316261","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"纪要承认经济和通胀升幅超出一些官员预期，但通胀是暂时的。会议讨论过资产购买，除了建议保持耐心还呈现较大的方法论分歧，特别是MBS和国债能否按比例同步缩减。有分析称，官员们认为会比预期更早地开始缩减购债","content":"<p>The minutes acknowledged that the economy and inflation rose more than some officials expected, but that inflation was temporary. The meeting discussed asset purchases, and in addition to suggesting patience, there were large methodological differences, especially whether MBS and Treasury Bond could be reduced proportionally and simultaneously. Some analysts say that officials believe that they will start tapering bond purchases earlier than expected. On Wednesday, July 7, at 2 p.m. in Eastern America, the Federal Reserve released the full minutes of the closely watched FOMC monetary policy meeting from June 15 to 16.</p><p>As the Federal Reserve released hawkish signals that surprised the market at its June meeting, such as sharply raising its economic and inflation expectations this year and advancing officials' rate hike forecasts to 2023, investors pay attention to the Fed's views on the economic situation such as inflation and employment in the United States mentioned in the minutes, and whether the officials at the meeting will release more clues around \"discussing when to start reducing QE (i.e. taper)\".</p><p>The minutes show that monetary policymakers are expected to continue to make progress on \"reaching the threshold to start reducing QE\", but the main tone of the meeting remains the need to be patient in tightening monetary policy.</p><p>The Federal Reserve has indeed started to discuss tapering its bond purchases, but it can't reach a consensus and will continue to discuss it in the future. For example, some officials believe purchases of mortgage bonds (MBS) can be cut relatively sooner or faster, while others are explicitly opposed.</p><p>At the same time, the minutes also reiterated the Fed's view this year that although inflation is rising faster than officials expected, they still believe that the current upward trend of inflation is temporary and generally does not meet the premise of \"substantial further progress\" to start tightening policy.</p><p><b>The market changed little, the Nasdaq briefly turned up, and the long-term U.S. bond yield maintained a decline</b></p><p>After the release of the minutes, US stocks did not change much, the Dow and S&P 500 kept their gains, and the Nasdaq stopped falling and turned up. The yield of 10-year U.S. bonds maintained a decline of 5 basis points in the day, gold and silver rose slightly, and spot gold stood firm above the $1,800 mark.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b7f7a28c324185f3efb18df47d5ccab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"68\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Before the release of the minutes, the Dow and S&P 500 rose moderately. The S&P market rose 0.3% at the beginning of the session and hit a record intraday high, while the Nasdaq turned slightly lower after hitting a record high shortly after the opening.</p><p>Long-term U.S. bond yields continued their deep decline in recent days. The yield of the 10-year benchmark U.S. bond fell by 7.4 basis points in the day, once falling below 1.30% and hitting the lowest in five months. Before the release of FOMC minutes, it returned to above 1.32%, and the intraday decline narrowed to 4.5 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb9152422cfe8dbfab14bb56370f95e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to the analysis, the yield of long-term U.S. bonds has dropped sharply, highlighting the market's concerns about the growth prospects of the U.S. economy. Many people think that the recovery may have peaked, and the highly contagious COVID-19 Delta mutant strain has brought new hidden dangers.</p><p><b>The Fed consensus is \"inflation temporary\", but there is no agreement on the future inflation path</b></p><p>There are still analysts questioning the Fed's judgment that \"inflation is only temporary\". Officials at the June FOMC meeting said they were already expecting inflation to exceed 2% in the short term, partly due to the base effect of falling prices early in the pandemic and the fact that higher oil prices have been passed on to consumer energy prices, according to minutes from the June FOMC meeting.</p><p>Still, officials acknowledged that \"the real rise in inflation was greater than expected\". most (most) officials cited the main reasons as wider-than-expected supply constraints in the goods and labor markets and a larger-than-expected surge in consumer demand as the economy reopened.</p><p><b>The minutes emphasized that \"inflation is temporary\" as a consensus among officials, although there were many participants who believed that upward pressure on prices would continue into next year.</b>They also noted in particular that long-term inflation expectations remain in line with the FOMC's long-term inflation target:</p><p>\"Looking ahead, participants generally expected inflation to ease as the effects of these temporary factors dissipated, but some (several) officials noted that they expected supply chain constraints and input shortages to put upward pressure on prices next year as well. Uncertainty remained high in the early months of economic reopening and it was impossible to accurately assess how long inflationary pressures would last, some (several) officials said. some said the recent reading of inflation measures, which exclude volatility, has been steady at 2% or slightly lower. A number of participants argued that the measure of long-term inflation expectations remained broadly in line with the Committee's long-term inflation target, despite the increase earlier this year. others have pointed out that it is the growth in the aforementioned metrics this year that has brought it to levels broadly in line with the Committee's long-term inflation target. \" Of course, Fed officials are not mincing the fact that the magnitude of inflation upward this year is somewhat surprising.<b>However, the minutes of the meeting revealed their disagreement on the future path of inflation, which may be one reason for policy patience for the time being.</b></p><p>For example, while they \"generally agree\" that the risks to the U.S. economic outlook are roughly balanced, a substantial majority of participants believe that the risks to their inflation forecasts are skewed upward:</p><p>\"This is because they are concerned that supply disruptions and labor shortages could last longer and could lead to a greater or more lasting impact on prices and wages than they currently assume. Some (several) officials are concerned that long-term inflation expectations could rise to inappropriate levels if inflation readings continue to rise. But several other officials warned that downside risks to inflation remain as temporary price pressures could subside sooner than currently anticipated. And, the forces that suppressed inflation and its expectations during previous economic expansions have not disappeared and may even reinforce the process of temporary price pressures dissipating in the future. \"<b>The Fed has a lot of dispute over when taper and the methodology, especially whether MBS and Treasury Bond can scale back proportionately</b></p><p>The minutes show that the June FOMC meeting \"discussed the Fed's asset purchases\" and the progress of adopting forward-looking guidance on bond purchases since December to meet the committee's goals. Officials at the meeting concluded that they \"generally agree\" that \"substantial further progress\" has not been made to meet the policy threshold for tightening, but they expect progress to continue.</p><p>It is worth noting that,<b>The minutes reveal that the Fed is currently divided internally over when to start tapering and how to start tapering</b>, which may also be another reason why the Fed is temporarily sitting on the sidelines in the face of economic and inflation data.</p><p>various officials who supported reducing bond purchases \"sooner rather than later\" said that, judging from the data, they expected \"the conditions to start slowing down the pace of asset purchases to be met\" sooner than expected at the previous meeting.</p><p>More specifically, given excessive valuation pressures in the housing market, some (several) officials believe it would be beneficial for the Fed to reduce its purchases of MBS \"sooner or sooner\" than it would buy U.S. Treasury Bond.</p><p>However, several (some) officials objected that the current data provided less clear signals about underlying economic momentum.</p><p>several others said that it would be desirable to commensurately reduce the pace of Treasury Bond and MBS purchases, because this approach would be fully consistent with the market communication before the FOMC, and both the purchase of Treasury Bond and MBS provide easing policies by affecting financial conditions more broadly.</p><p>Overall, several (several) officials emphasized that the FOMC should be patient in assessing progress towards its goals and announcing changes to its asset purchase program, and that information in the coming months will better assess the movement of the labor market and inflation:</p><p>\"Officials at the meeting generally agreed that, as part of prudent planning, it is important to be prepared to reduce the pace of asset purchases, where appropriate, in response to unexpected economic developments, including achieving the Commission's goals faster than anticipated, or risks that could hinder the achievement of the Commission's goals. At the following meeting, participants agreed to continue to assess the progress of the economy towards the Commission's goals and begin discussions on plans to adjust the path and composition of asset purchases. Participants reiterated that they would notify the market as early as possible before an announcement to reduce the pace of bond purchases. \"<b>The Federal Reserve highlighted the rising uncertainty of the outlook caused by the pandemic and supported the establishment of multiple standing repo instruments</b></p><p>In evaluating the current economic conditions and prospects, the officials at the meeting acknowledged that with vaccination progress and strong policy support, the indicators of economic activity and employment in the United States have strengthened, the industries most affected by the epidemic are still weak but have improved, the overall financial situation remains loose, and the soaring consumer spending has prompted them to raise their real GDP growth forecasts for this year.</p><p>They expect labor market conditions to continue to improve, with labor shortages easing throughout the summer and fall as vaccinations continue, social distancing policies gradually ease, more schools reopen, and expanded unemployment benefits expire. A few mentioned that the economic conditions set out in the forward guidance for Federal Funds rate would be reached a little earlier than they had forecast in March.</p><p>But many (many) officials noted that the economy is still \"far from achieving the broad and inclusive maximum employment target,\" and some (some) said that while recent job growth has been strong, it has been weaker than they had expected. A number of people pointed out that the labor market recovery remains uneven across ethnicities, income groups, and across industries.</p><p><b>At the same time, some (several) highlighted that low interest rates are causing house prices to rise, while high valuation pressures in the housing market may pose financial stability risks.</b></p><p>Overall, officials at their June meeting \"generally agreed\" that supply disruptions and labor shortages will constrain U.S. economic expansion this year, and they also generally agreed that the direction of the economy will largely depend on the course of the virus and that risks to the economic outlook remain. Therefore, the June meeting stood still on major monetary policies such as interest rates and debt buying, waiting for more data to correct officials' judgments in the future:</p><p>\"Officials at the meeting noted that the process of reopening the economy is unprecedented and that there may be imbalances between industries. some (some) believe that supply chain disruptions and labor shortages complicate the task of assessing progress on the committee's goals and that the rate at which these factors dissipate is uncertain. As a result, officials see increased uncertainty surrounding their economic projections. Although inflation rose more than expected, it was largely seen as reflecting temporary factors, with officials at the meeting expecting inflation to decline towards the FOMC Committee's long-term target of 2%. They argue that current monetary policy and forward guidance remain suitable for boosting maximum employment, achieving an inflation rate of 2% on average over time, and inflation expectations of 2% stable over the long term. several emphasized that uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook is elevated and that it is too early to draw definitive conclusions about the labour market and the path of inflation. In their view, this heightened uncertainty in economic development also means that there is significant uncertainty about the appropriate path for Federal Funds rate. At the same time, officials also discussed recent trends in the short-term financing market,<b>They generally support the establishment of a Standing Repo Facilitation Facility (SRF) within the United States and the transformation of temporary repo agreements for overseas and international monetary institutions during the pandemic into a Standing Mechanism.</b>They generally hope that these instruments will play a supportive role in promoting the effective implementation of monetary policy and ensuring the smooth functioning of markets, and specific design options will continue to be discussed.</p><p>In terms of monetary policy implementation, officials admitted that during the two FOMC meetings, money market interest rates faced downward pressure, and it is more likely that these interest rates will fall further in the near future. So they support an adjustment to the Fed's managed rate to help Federal Funds rate stay within the target range.</p><p>In June, the Federal Reserve raised the excess reserve rate (IOER), which is the upper limit of the benchmark interest rate corridor, and the overnight reverse repo rate (ON RRP), which is the lower limit of the corridor, by 5 basis points each to suppress the recent excess liquidity. Officials at the meeting \"agreed\" that this technical adjustment has nothing to do with the appropriate path of Federal Funds rate or the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance.</p><p><b>Analysis: Officials think tapering will begin sooner than expected, minutes reveal</b></p><p>According to Bloomberg analysis, the minutes of the meeting clearly showed that many Fed officials were nervous about the inflation trend in June, and they also thought that they would start to scale back asset purchases earlier than previously expected. Several officials' comments on the relationship between low interest rates and an overheated housing market may mean that this will increasingly play a role in the debate over when and how quickly to begin rate hike.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal also said that the minutes of the meeting showed that in view of the stronger-than-expected economic growth this year, Fed officials admitted that they may need to withdraw their easing policy support for the economy sooner than expected. Although they emphasized patience with the QE program, they also argued that bond purchases should end early.</p><p>CNBC, the financial media, believes that the minutes of this meeting have basically made no contribution to taper, a hot topic in the market. The full text only reiterates that officials are \"considering talking about tapering\" (Talking about talking about tapering), with little other progress.</p><p>Reuters noted that in the text of the minutes, the Fed mentioned that it must \"be fully prepared\" before cutting the pace of bond purchases. Although the minutes do not clarify exactly when the bond purchase and interest rate policy will begin to be adjusted, it does show that the Fed is beginning to seriously discuss the matter. Bob Miller, head of fixed income in the Americas at BlackRock, said that monetary policy adjustment has been put on the table, but the Federal Reserve has serious internal differences.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed's June FOMC Minutes: Inflation Remains Consensus For Now, Methodology Deeply Divided</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed's June FOMC Minutes: Inflation Remains Consensus For Now, Methodology Deeply Divided\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-08 03:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The minutes acknowledged that the economy and inflation rose more than some officials expected, but that inflation was temporary. The meeting discussed asset purchases, and in addition to suggesting patience, there were large methodological differences, especially whether MBS and Treasury Bond could be reduced proportionally and simultaneously. Some analysts say that officials believe that they will start tapering bond purchases earlier than expected. On Wednesday, July 7, at 2 p.m. in Eastern America, the Federal Reserve released the full minutes of the closely watched FOMC monetary policy meeting from June 15 to 16.</p><p>As the Federal Reserve released hawkish signals that surprised the market at its June meeting, such as sharply raising its economic and inflation expectations this year and advancing officials' rate hike forecasts to 2023, investors pay attention to the Fed's views on the economic situation such as inflation and employment in the United States mentioned in the minutes, and whether the officials at the meeting will release more clues around \"discussing when to start reducing QE (i.e. taper)\".</p><p>The minutes show that monetary policymakers are expected to continue to make progress on \"reaching the threshold to start reducing QE\", but the main tone of the meeting remains the need to be patient in tightening monetary policy.</p><p>The Federal Reserve has indeed started to discuss tapering its bond purchases, but it can't reach a consensus and will continue to discuss it in the future. For example, some officials believe purchases of mortgage bonds (MBS) can be cut relatively sooner or faster, while others are explicitly opposed.</p><p>At the same time, the minutes also reiterated the Fed's view this year that although inflation is rising faster than officials expected, they still believe that the current upward trend of inflation is temporary and generally does not meet the premise of \"substantial further progress\" to start tightening policy.</p><p><b>The market changed little, the Nasdaq briefly turned up, and the long-term U.S. bond yield maintained a decline</b></p><p>After the release of the minutes, US stocks did not change much, the Dow and S&P 500 kept their gains, and the Nasdaq stopped falling and turned up. The yield of 10-year U.S. bonds maintained a decline of 5 basis points in the day, gold and silver rose slightly, and spot gold stood firm above the $1,800 mark.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b7f7a28c324185f3efb18df47d5ccab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"68\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Before the release of the minutes, the Dow and S&P 500 rose moderately. The S&P market rose 0.3% at the beginning of the session and hit a record intraday high, while the Nasdaq turned slightly lower after hitting a record high shortly after the opening.</p><p>Long-term U.S. bond yields continued their deep decline in recent days. The yield of the 10-year benchmark U.S. bond fell by 7.4 basis points in the day, once falling below 1.30% and hitting the lowest in five months. Before the release of FOMC minutes, it returned to above 1.32%, and the intraday decline narrowed to 4.5 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb9152422cfe8dbfab14bb56370f95e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to the analysis, the yield of long-term U.S. bonds has dropped sharply, highlighting the market's concerns about the growth prospects of the U.S. economy. Many people think that the recovery may have peaked, and the highly contagious COVID-19 Delta mutant strain has brought new hidden dangers.</p><p><b>The Fed consensus is \"inflation temporary\", but there is no agreement on the future inflation path</b></p><p>There are still analysts questioning the Fed's judgment that \"inflation is only temporary\". Officials at the June FOMC meeting said they were already expecting inflation to exceed 2% in the short term, partly due to the base effect of falling prices early in the pandemic and the fact that higher oil prices have been passed on to consumer energy prices, according to minutes from the June FOMC meeting.</p><p>Still, officials acknowledged that \"the real rise in inflation was greater than expected\". most (most) officials cited the main reasons as wider-than-expected supply constraints in the goods and labor markets and a larger-than-expected surge in consumer demand as the economy reopened.</p><p><b>The minutes emphasized that \"inflation is temporary\" as a consensus among officials, although there were many participants who believed that upward pressure on prices would continue into next year.</b>They also noted in particular that long-term inflation expectations remain in line with the FOMC's long-term inflation target:</p><p>\"Looking ahead, participants generally expected inflation to ease as the effects of these temporary factors dissipated, but some (several) officials noted that they expected supply chain constraints and input shortages to put upward pressure on prices next year as well. Uncertainty remained high in the early months of economic reopening and it was impossible to accurately assess how long inflationary pressures would last, some (several) officials said. some said the recent reading of inflation measures, which exclude volatility, has been steady at 2% or slightly lower. A number of participants argued that the measure of long-term inflation expectations remained broadly in line with the Committee's long-term inflation target, despite the increase earlier this year. others have pointed out that it is the growth in the aforementioned metrics this year that has brought it to levels broadly in line with the Committee's long-term inflation target. \" Of course, Fed officials are not mincing the fact that the magnitude of inflation upward this year is somewhat surprising.<b>However, the minutes of the meeting revealed their disagreement on the future path of inflation, which may be one reason for policy patience for the time being.</b></p><p>For example, while they \"generally agree\" that the risks to the U.S. economic outlook are roughly balanced, a substantial majority of participants believe that the risks to their inflation forecasts are skewed upward:</p><p>\"This is because they are concerned that supply disruptions and labor shortages could last longer and could lead to a greater or more lasting impact on prices and wages than they currently assume. Some (several) officials are concerned that long-term inflation expectations could rise to inappropriate levels if inflation readings continue to rise. But several other officials warned that downside risks to inflation remain as temporary price pressures could subside sooner than currently anticipated. And, the forces that suppressed inflation and its expectations during previous economic expansions have not disappeared and may even reinforce the process of temporary price pressures dissipating in the future. \"<b>The Fed has a lot of dispute over when taper and the methodology, especially whether MBS and Treasury Bond can scale back proportionately</b></p><p>The minutes show that the June FOMC meeting \"discussed the Fed's asset purchases\" and the progress of adopting forward-looking guidance on bond purchases since December to meet the committee's goals. Officials at the meeting concluded that they \"generally agree\" that \"substantial further progress\" has not been made to meet the policy threshold for tightening, but they expect progress to continue.</p><p>It is worth noting that,<b>The minutes reveal that the Fed is currently divided internally over when to start tapering and how to start tapering</b>, which may also be another reason why the Fed is temporarily sitting on the sidelines in the face of economic and inflation data.</p><p>various officials who supported reducing bond purchases \"sooner rather than later\" said that, judging from the data, they expected \"the conditions to start slowing down the pace of asset purchases to be met\" sooner than expected at the previous meeting.</p><p>More specifically, given excessive valuation pressures in the housing market, some (several) officials believe it would be beneficial for the Fed to reduce its purchases of MBS \"sooner or sooner\" than it would buy U.S. Treasury Bond.</p><p>However, several (some) officials objected that the current data provided less clear signals about underlying economic momentum.</p><p>several others said that it would be desirable to commensurately reduce the pace of Treasury Bond and MBS purchases, because this approach would be fully consistent with the market communication before the FOMC, and both the purchase of Treasury Bond and MBS provide easing policies by affecting financial conditions more broadly.</p><p>Overall, several (several) officials emphasized that the FOMC should be patient in assessing progress towards its goals and announcing changes to its asset purchase program, and that information in the coming months will better assess the movement of the labor market and inflation:</p><p>\"Officials at the meeting generally agreed that, as part of prudent planning, it is important to be prepared to reduce the pace of asset purchases, where appropriate, in response to unexpected economic developments, including achieving the Commission's goals faster than anticipated, or risks that could hinder the achievement of the Commission's goals. At the following meeting, participants agreed to continue to assess the progress of the economy towards the Commission's goals and begin discussions on plans to adjust the path and composition of asset purchases. Participants reiterated that they would notify the market as early as possible before an announcement to reduce the pace of bond purchases. \"<b>The Federal Reserve highlighted the rising uncertainty of the outlook caused by the pandemic and supported the establishment of multiple standing repo instruments</b></p><p>In evaluating the current economic conditions and prospects, the officials at the meeting acknowledged that with vaccination progress and strong policy support, the indicators of economic activity and employment in the United States have strengthened, the industries most affected by the epidemic are still weak but have improved, the overall financial situation remains loose, and the soaring consumer spending has prompted them to raise their real GDP growth forecasts for this year.</p><p>They expect labor market conditions to continue to improve, with labor shortages easing throughout the summer and fall as vaccinations continue, social distancing policies gradually ease, more schools reopen, and expanded unemployment benefits expire. A few mentioned that the economic conditions set out in the forward guidance for Federal Funds rate would be reached a little earlier than they had forecast in March.</p><p>But many (many) officials noted that the economy is still \"far from achieving the broad and inclusive maximum employment target,\" and some (some) said that while recent job growth has been strong, it has been weaker than they had expected. A number of people pointed out that the labor market recovery remains uneven across ethnicities, income groups, and across industries.</p><p><b>At the same time, some (several) highlighted that low interest rates are causing house prices to rise, while high valuation pressures in the housing market may pose financial stability risks.</b></p><p>Overall, officials at their June meeting \"generally agreed\" that supply disruptions and labor shortages will constrain U.S. economic expansion this year, and they also generally agreed that the direction of the economy will largely depend on the course of the virus and that risks to the economic outlook remain. Therefore, the June meeting stood still on major monetary policies such as interest rates and debt buying, waiting for more data to correct officials' judgments in the future:</p><p>\"Officials at the meeting noted that the process of reopening the economy is unprecedented and that there may be imbalances between industries. some (some) believe that supply chain disruptions and labor shortages complicate the task of assessing progress on the committee's goals and that the rate at which these factors dissipate is uncertain. As a result, officials see increased uncertainty surrounding their economic projections. Although inflation rose more than expected, it was largely seen as reflecting temporary factors, with officials at the meeting expecting inflation to decline towards the FOMC Committee's long-term target of 2%. They argue that current monetary policy and forward guidance remain suitable for boosting maximum employment, achieving an inflation rate of 2% on average over time, and inflation expectations of 2% stable over the long term. several emphasized that uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook is elevated and that it is too early to draw definitive conclusions about the labour market and the path of inflation. In their view, this heightened uncertainty in economic development also means that there is significant uncertainty about the appropriate path for Federal Funds rate. At the same time, officials also discussed recent trends in the short-term financing market,<b>They generally support the establishment of a Standing Repo Facilitation Facility (SRF) within the United States and the transformation of temporary repo agreements for overseas and international monetary institutions during the pandemic into a Standing Mechanism.</b>They generally hope that these instruments will play a supportive role in promoting the effective implementation of monetary policy and ensuring the smooth functioning of markets, and specific design options will continue to be discussed.</p><p>In terms of monetary policy implementation, officials admitted that during the two FOMC meetings, money market interest rates faced downward pressure, and it is more likely that these interest rates will fall further in the near future. So they support an adjustment to the Fed's managed rate to help Federal Funds rate stay within the target range.</p><p>In June, the Federal Reserve raised the excess reserve rate (IOER), which is the upper limit of the benchmark interest rate corridor, and the overnight reverse repo rate (ON RRP), which is the lower limit of the corridor, by 5 basis points each to suppress the recent excess liquidity. Officials at the meeting \"agreed\" that this technical adjustment has nothing to do with the appropriate path of Federal Funds rate or the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance.</p><p><b>Analysis: Officials think tapering will begin sooner than expected, minutes reveal</b></p><p>According to Bloomberg analysis, the minutes of the meeting clearly showed that many Fed officials were nervous about the inflation trend in June, and they also thought that they would start to scale back asset purchases earlier than previously expected. Several officials' comments on the relationship between low interest rates and an overheated housing market may mean that this will increasingly play a role in the debate over when and how quickly to begin rate hike.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal also said that the minutes of the meeting showed that in view of the stronger-than-expected economic growth this year, Fed officials admitted that they may need to withdraw their easing policy support for the economy sooner than expected. Although they emphasized patience with the QE program, they also argued that bond purchases should end early.</p><p>CNBC, the financial media, believes that the minutes of this meeting have basically made no contribution to taper, a hot topic in the market. The full text only reiterates that officials are \"considering talking about tapering\" (Talking about talking about tapering), with little other progress.</p><p>Reuters noted that in the text of the minutes, the Fed mentioned that it must \"be fully prepared\" before cutting the pace of bond purchases. Although the minutes do not clarify exactly when the bond purchase and interest rate policy will begin to be adjusted, it does show that the Fed is beginning to seriously discuss the matter. Bob Miller, head of fixed income in the Americas at BlackRock, said that monetary policy adjustment has been put on the table, but the Federal Reserve has serious internal differences.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2149316261","content_text":"纪要承认经济和通胀升幅超出一些官员预期，但通胀是暂时的。会议讨论过资产购买，除了建议保持耐心还呈现较大的方法论分歧，特别是MBS和国债能否按比例同步缩减。有分析称，官员们认为会比预期更早地开始缩减购债规模。\n\n7月7日美东周三下午2点，美联储发布了备受关注的6月15日至16日FOMC货币政策会议完整纪要。\n由于美联储在6月会上释放出令市场意外的鹰派信号，例如大幅上调今年经济和通胀预期，以及将官员们的加息预测提前至2023年，因此，投资者关注纪要中提到的美联储对美国通胀和就业等经济形势看法，以及与会官员们是否会围绕“讨论何时开始减码QE（即taper）”释放更多线索。\n纪要显示，货币政策制定者们预计将继续在“达到开始减码QE的门槛”上取得进展，但会议的主基调仍是在收紧货币政策方面需要保持耐心。\n美联储确实已经开始讨论缩减购债（taper）的事宜，不过无法达成共识，未来将继续讨论。例如，一些官员认为对抵押贷款债券（MBS）的购买可以相对更早或更快削减，另一些人则明确表示反对。\n同时，纪要还重申了美联储今年以来的观点，即尽管通胀上升速度快于官员们预期，他们仍认为当前的通胀上行趋势是暂时的，总体上没有达到启动紧缩政策的“实质性进一步进展”前提。\n市场变动不大，纳指短暂转涨，长端美债收益率保持跌势\n纪要发布后，美股变动不大，道指和标普500指数保持涨势，纳指止跌转涨。10年期美债收益率维持日内5个基点的跌幅，金银小幅上涨，现货黄金站稳1800美元关口上方。\n\n在纪要发布前，道指和标普500指数温和上涨，标普大盘盘初曾涨0.3%并创盘中历史新高，纳指则在开盘不久创新高后小幅转跌。\n长端美债收益率延续近日来的深度跌幅。10年期基准美债收益率日内最深下行7.4个基点，一度跌破1.30%并创五个月最低，FOMC纪要发布前重回1.32%上方，日内降幅收窄至4.5个基点。\n\n分析称，长端美债收益率大幅走低，凸显出市场对美国经济增长前景的担忧，不少人认为复苏可能已经触顶，以及高传染性的新冠Delta变异毒株带来崭新隐患。\n美联储共识是“通胀暂时论”，但对未来通胀路径莫衷一是\n仍有分析师质疑美联储对“通胀只是暂时”的判断。6月FOMC会议纪要显示，与会官员们表示，他们已经预计到了短期通胀将超过2%，部分原因是疫情初期价格下跌的基数效应，以及油价上涨已传递到消费者能源价格。\n不过，官员们还是承认，“通胀的实际升幅大于预期”。大多数（most）官员认为主因是商品和劳动力市场的供应限制比预期更广泛，以及随着经济重新开放，消费者的需求激增超出预期。\n纪要强调了“通胀是暂时的”为官员间共识，尽管不乏有与会者认为价格上行压力会持续到明年。他们还格外指出，长期通胀预期仍保持与FOMC的长期通胀目标一致：\n\n “展望未来，与会者普遍预期通胀会随着这些暂时性因素的影响消散而缓解，但一些（several）官员指出，他们预计供应链限制和投入品短缺将在明年也对价格构成上行压力。\n\n\n 一些（several）官员称，在经济重新开放的最初几个月，不确定性仍然很高，无法准确评估通胀压力持续多久。几人（some）称，剔除波动成分的通胀指标近期读数一直稳定在2%或略低水平。\n\n\n 多位（a number of）与会者认为，尽管今年早期有所增加，长期通胀预期指标仍保持在与委员会的长期通胀目标基本一致范围内。其他人（others）指出，正是今年上述指标的增长使其达到了与委员会长期通胀目标大体一致的水平。”\n\n当然，美联储官员们并不讳言今年通胀上行的幅度有些令人意外。不过，会议纪要透露出他们对通胀未来的路径莫衷一是，这可能是暂时保持政策耐心的原因之一。\n例如，尽管他们“普遍认为”美国经济前景面临的风险大致平衡，但绝大多数（a substantial majority of）与会者认为，他们的通胀预测风险偏向上行：\n\n “这是因为他们担心供应中断和劳动力短缺可能会持续更长时间，并可能导致对价格和工资的影响比他们目前假设的更大或更持久。\n\n\n 一些（several）官员担心，如果通胀读数持续升高，长期通胀预期可能会升至不适当的水平。\n\n\n 但其他几位（several other）官员警告称，通胀的下行风险仍然存在，因为暂时的价格压力可能会比目前预期得更快消退。而且，之前经济扩张期间压低通胀及其预期的力量并未消失，甚至可能会强化未来暂时价格压力消散的过程。”\n\n美联储对何时taper及方法论争议很大，特别是MBS和国债能否按比例同步缩减\n纪要显示，6月FOMC会议“讨论了美联储的资产购买”，以及自去年12月来采纳买债前瞻指引以实现委员会目标的进展。与会官员的结论是，他们“普遍认为”尚未取得满足收紧政策门槛的“实质性进一步进展”，但他们预计将继续取得进展。\n值得注意的是，纪要透露出，美联储目前对何时可以开始缩减购债（taper），以及该如何开始taper存在很大内部分歧，这可能也是美联储在经济和通胀数据面前暂时按兵不动的另一个原因。\n支持“宜早不宜迟”减少购债的多位（various）与会官员称，从数据来判断，他们预计“达到开始放缓资产购买步伐的条件”将比之前会议上的预期更早一些。\n更具体来说，鉴于房地产市场的过高估值压力，一些（several）官员认为，相比于购买美国国债，美联储“更快或更早地”减少购买MBS是有益的。\n然而，几位（some）官员反对称，当前数据提供关于潜在经济势头的信号不太明确。\n另有多人（several other）称，按照比例同步（commensurately）降低国债和MBS 购买步伐才是可取的，因为这种方法将与FOMC之前的市场沟通完全一致，而且购买国债和MBS都通过更广泛地影响金融状况来提供了宽松政策。\n总体来说，几位（several）官员强调，FOMC在评估实现其目标的进展和宣布资产购买计划变更时应保持耐心，未来几个月的信息将更好评估劳动力市场和通胀的走势：\n\n “与会官员普遍认为，作为审慎规划的一部分，重要的是要做好准备以在适当情况下降低资产购买的步伐，以应对意外的经济发展，包括实现委员会目标的速度快于预期，或出现可能阻碍实现委员会目标的风险。\n\n\n 在接下来的会议上，与会者同意继续评估经济在实现委员会目标方面的进展，并开始讨论调整资产购买路径和构成的计划。参与者重申将在发布减少购债速度的公告之前尽早向市场发出通知。”\n\n美联储强调疫情导致前景不确定性升高，支持设置多种常备回购工具\n在评价当前经济状况和前景时，与会官员们承认，在疫苗接种进展和强有力的政策支持下，美国经济活动和就业指标有所增强，受疫情影响最严重的行业仍然疲软但已出现改善，整体金融状况依旧宽松，消费者支出飙升促使他们上调了对今年实际GDP的增长预测。\n他们预计劳动力市场状况将继续改善，随着疫苗接种继续推进、社交距离政策逐步放松、更多学校重新开学，以及扩大的失业救济到期，劳动力短缺情况将在整个夏季和秋季缓解。一些人（a few）提到，达成联邦基金利率前瞻指引中规定的经济状况将比他们在3月的预测稍早一些。\n但许多（many）官员指出，经济仍“远未实现广泛且具有包容性的最大就业目标”，一些（some）官员称，虽然近期就业增长强劲，但弱于他们的预期。几人（a number of）指出，劳动力市场复苏在不同族裔、收入群体以及跨行业之间仍然不平衡。\n同时，一些（several）人强调，低利率正在导致房价上涨，而房地产市场的高估值压力可能会带来金融稳定风险。\n整体来说，官员们在6月会议上“普遍认为” 供应中断和劳动力短缺将制约今年美国经济扩张，他们还普遍认为，经济走向将在很大程度上取决于病毒的进程，经济前景面临的风险仍然存在。因此，6月会议在利率和买债等主要货币政策上按兵不动，等待未来更多数据修正官员的判断：\n\n “与会官员指出，重新开放经济的过程史无前例，各行业之间可能不平衡。一些人（some）认为，供应链中断和劳动力短缺使评估委员会目标进展的任务变得复杂，并且这些因素消散的速度不确定。因此，官员认为围绕他们经济预测的不确定性有所增加。\n\n\n 尽管通胀升幅超过预期，但主要被视为反映了暂时因素，与会官员们预计通胀将朝着FOMC委员会2%的长期目标下降。他们认为，当前的货币政策和前瞻指引仍然适合促进最大就业、实现一段时间内平均2%的通胀率，以及长期稳定在2%的通胀预期。\n\n\n 几人（several）强调，围绕经济前景的不确定性升高，现在就劳动力市场和通胀路径得出确切结论还为时过早。在他们看来，经济发展的这种不确定性加剧，也意味着联邦基金利率的适当路径存在重大不确定性。 ”\n\n同时，官员们还讨论了短期融资市场的近期走势，他们普遍支持设置美国国内的常备回购便利工具（SRF），并将疫情期间针对海外和国际货币机构的临时回购协议转变为常备机制。他们普遍希望这些工具在促进货币政策的有效实施，以及确保市场平稳运行方面发挥支持作用，具体设计方案会继续讨论。\n而在货币政策执行方面，官员们承认在两次FOMC会议期间，货币市场利率面临下行压力，近期内这些利率进一步下行的可能性较大。因此他们支持对美联储管理利率作出调整，以帮助联邦基金利率保持在目标范围内。\n美联储在6月上调了作为基准利率走廊上限的超额准备金利率（IOER），和作为走廊下限的隔夜逆回购利率（ON RRP）各5个基点，以打压近期流动性过剩局面。与会官员们“一致认为”，此次技术性调整，与联邦基金利率的适当路径或美联储的货币政策立场无关。\n分析：纪要透露，官员们认为会比预期更早地开始缩减购债规模\n彭博分析称，会议纪要非常清楚地表明，不少联储官员对6月的通胀走势感到紧张，他们也认为会比此前预期更早地开始缩减资产购买规模。几位官员对低利率与房地产市场过热之间的关系评论，可能意味着这一点会越来越多在何时以及多快开始加息的辩论中发挥作用。\n华尔街日报也称，会议纪要显示，鉴于今年经济增长强于预期，美联储官员们承认，可能需要比预期更早地撤回对经济的宽松政策支持。尽管他们强调要对QE计划保持耐心，但也认为债券购买应该提前结束。\n财经媒体CNBC则认为，本次会议纪要对taper这一市场热门话题基本没有贡献，全文只是重申官员们正在“考虑开始讨论taper”（Talking about talking about tapering），几乎没有其他进展。\n路透社注意到，纪要文本中，美联储提到在削减购债速度之前必须“做好充分准备”。尽管纪要没有澄清究竟何时会开始调整购债和利率政策，但确实显示出美联储开始认真讨论此事。贝莱德美洲固收主管Bob Miller称，货币政策调整已经被摆上台面，但美联储存在严重内部分歧。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SSO":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2450,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155196936,"gmtCreate":1625384062925,"gmtModify":1703741124484,"author":{"id":"4088483890194020","authorId":"4088483890194020","name":"yuilow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7af79272fb44775303405ebf6720a4f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088483890194020","idStr":"4088483890194020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/155196936","repostId":"2148804970","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2148804970","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1625283118,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2148804970?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-03 11:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"OPEC + Production Increase Talks Frozen, What Does It Mean for Oil Prices?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2148804970","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"由于僵局持续，OPEC+周五连续第二天暂停会议。\n此前OPEC+已达成原则性协议，从8月到12月每月增加40万桶/日的产量，到年底达成累计增产200万桶/日。协议还将延长整体OPEC+协议的期限，将减","content":"<p>OPEC + suspended its meeting for the second day in a row on Friday as the stalemate continued.</p><p>Previously, OPEC + had reached an agreement in principle to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day per month from August to December, and reach a cumulative increase of 2 million barrels per day by the end of the year. The agreement will also extend the duration of the overall OPEC + agreement, extending the final deadline for production cuts to December 2022.</p><p>However, the UAE \"turned its face\" at the last minute and demanded an increase in the crude oil baseline on which the country was based when cutting production. The new change will allow it to produce an additional 700,000 barrels per day. The dramatic reversal caused OPEC + to have to postpone its plenary meeting to resolve internal disputes.</p><p><h2>What does the UAE want?</h2>Wall Street News mentioned earlier that the UAE is not opposed to increasing production, but hopes that the new agreement will recognize that its production reduction begins with a higher production benchmark.</p><p>The UAE said it had previously agreed to a very low benchmark figure in good faith, making its production cuts \"disproportionately larger\", and that the UAE would lose even more if the cut agreement did not end as planned in April 2022. So it wants to raise its production benchmark to 3.84 million barrels per day from the current 3.168 million barrels per day,<b>Higher benchmarks mean lower real production cuts, that is, the UAE wants to ramp up production itself to speed up.</b></p><p>The UAE has long laid out ambitious plans to ramp up production and has invested billions in increasing capacity, with the OPEC + cut deal leaving about 30% of its capacity idle. The UAE believes that Azerbaijan, Kuwait, Kazakhstan and Nigeria, among others, have requested and raised production benchmarks since the cut agreement was reached last year, and their own requests should be allowed. Late last year, the UAE threatened to withdraw from OPEC.</p><p>Independent oil analyst Anas Alhajji explained that in terms of data, other oil-producing countries all experienced a decline in production between October 2018 and April 2020, and the UAE's requirement to adjust the production benchmark would create market chaos and invalidate \"the goal of creating stability and clarity in the crude oil market\", which is why Saudi Arabia and Russia strongly oppose the requirement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49c7965ea606512e5231d229cb2835e4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>What impact will this have on oil prices?</h2>The market welcomed the initial agreement of OPEC + as a whole. At present, the market generally expects that the demand for crude oil will increase by 6 million barrels per day compared with the same period of last year, and OPEC +' s current production increase plan will not bring inventory disturbance.</p><p>Due to the uncertain prospect of negotiations, the crude oil market is basically on the wait-and-see attitude at present. Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil both fluctuated slightly on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dc7bb49c2a2f9e3632cb5afdab829aa\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For the requirements of the UAE,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Commodities analyst Giovanni Staunovo pointed out,<b>Any request to adjust production quotas seems to open<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NQC.UK\">Pandora</a>Magic Box, other OPEC + countries may also request similar adjustments.</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">Royal Bank of Canada</a>Analyst Helima Croft believes that the UAE's problems may be resolved through high-level talks between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Considering that there is no progress in the US-Iran nuclear agreement at present, the decision to extend the term of the OPEC + agreement to 2022 will boost the rise of crude oil prices.</p><p>But Croft warned that a breakdown in talks would upend the current upward momentum in oil prices, given the ongoing Covid pandemic.</p><p>There are also certain differences between Saudi Arabia and Russia, the two major oil producers of OPEC +.</p><p>In the run-up to this week's meeting, Russia has insisted on releasing more oil into the market as higher oil prices are encouraging growth in shale production from rival U.S. Saudi Arabia hopes to increase production more cautiously, on the grounds that COVID-19 and its variants bring great uncertainty, and there should be no rush to increase production substantially before evidence of a real recovery in demand is released.</p><p>The UAE's insistence on expanding its own production scale and Russia's eagerness to reach an agreement to increase production are not impossible for the OPEC + production reduction agreement to completely collapse. At that time, all countries can increase production at will, and OPEC + will enter an era of doing its own thing.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>OPEC + Production Increase Talks Frozen, What Does It Mean for Oil Prices?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOPEC + Production Increase Talks Frozen, What Does It Mean for Oil Prices?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 11:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>OPEC + suspended its meeting for the second day in a row on Friday as the stalemate continued.</p><p>Previously, OPEC + had reached an agreement in principle to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day per month from August to December, and reach a cumulative increase of 2 million barrels per day by the end of the year. The agreement will also extend the duration of the overall OPEC + agreement, extending the final deadline for production cuts to December 2022.</p><p>However, the UAE \"turned its face\" at the last minute and demanded an increase in the crude oil baseline on which the country was based when cutting production. The new change will allow it to produce an additional 700,000 barrels per day. The dramatic reversal caused OPEC + to have to postpone its plenary meeting to resolve internal disputes.</p><p><h2>What does the UAE want?</h2>Wall Street News mentioned earlier that the UAE is not opposed to increasing production, but hopes that the new agreement will recognize that its production reduction begins with a higher production benchmark.</p><p>The UAE said it had previously agreed to a very low benchmark figure in good faith, making its production cuts \"disproportionately larger\", and that the UAE would lose even more if the cut agreement did not end as planned in April 2022. So it wants to raise its production benchmark to 3.84 million barrels per day from the current 3.168 million barrels per day,<b>Higher benchmarks mean lower real production cuts, that is, the UAE wants to ramp up production itself to speed up.</b></p><p>The UAE has long laid out ambitious plans to ramp up production and has invested billions in increasing capacity, with the OPEC + cut deal leaving about 30% of its capacity idle. The UAE believes that Azerbaijan, Kuwait, Kazakhstan and Nigeria, among others, have requested and raised production benchmarks since the cut agreement was reached last year, and their own requests should be allowed. Late last year, the UAE threatened to withdraw from OPEC.</p><p>Independent oil analyst Anas Alhajji explained that in terms of data, other oil-producing countries all experienced a decline in production between October 2018 and April 2020, and the UAE's requirement to adjust the production benchmark would create market chaos and invalidate \"the goal of creating stability and clarity in the crude oil market\", which is why Saudi Arabia and Russia strongly oppose the requirement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49c7965ea606512e5231d229cb2835e4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>What impact will this have on oil prices?</h2>The market welcomed the initial agreement of OPEC + as a whole. At present, the market generally expects that the demand for crude oil will increase by 6 million barrels per day compared with the same period of last year, and OPEC +' s current production increase plan will not bring inventory disturbance.</p><p>Due to the uncertain prospect of negotiations, the crude oil market is basically on the wait-and-see attitude at present. Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil both fluctuated slightly on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dc7bb49c2a2f9e3632cb5afdab829aa\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For the requirements of the UAE,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Commodities analyst Giovanni Staunovo pointed out,<b>Any request to adjust production quotas seems to open<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NQC.UK\">Pandora</a>Magic Box, other OPEC + countries may also request similar adjustments.</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">Royal Bank of Canada</a>Analyst Helima Croft believes that the UAE's problems may be resolved through high-level talks between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Considering that there is no progress in the US-Iran nuclear agreement at present, the decision to extend the term of the OPEC + agreement to 2022 will boost the rise of crude oil prices.</p><p>But Croft warned that a breakdown in talks would upend the current upward momentum in oil prices, given the ongoing Covid pandemic.</p><p>There are also certain differences between Saudi Arabia and Russia, the two major oil producers of OPEC +.</p><p>In the run-up to this week's meeting, Russia has insisted on releasing more oil into the market as higher oil prices are encouraging growth in shale production from rival U.S. Saudi Arabia hopes to increase production more cautiously, on the grounds that COVID-19 and its variants bring great uncertainty, and there should be no rush to increase production substantially before evidence of a real recovery in demand is released.</p><p>The UAE's insistence on expanding its own production scale and Russia's eagerness to reach an agreement to increase production are not impossible for the OPEC + production reduction agreement to completely collapse. At that time, all countries can increase production at will, and OPEC + will enter an era of doing its own thing.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634488\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f01e4b782ba393cb7794f7764a5d7d90","relate_stocks":{"SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634488","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2148804970","content_text":"由于僵局持续，OPEC+周五连续第二天暂停会议。\n此前OPEC+已达成原则性协议，从8月到12月每月增加40万桶/日的产量，到年底达成累计增产200万桶/日。协议还将延长整体OPEC+协议的期限，将减产的最终期限延长至2022年12月。\n但阿联酋在最后一刻“翻脸”，要求上调该国减产时依据的原油基线，新的变动将允许其额外生产70万桶/日。这一戏剧性反转导致OPEC+不得不推迟全体会议以解决内部纠纷。\n阿联酋要什么？\n华尔街见闻此前提及，阿联酋并不反对增产，但希望新协议承认其减产开始时依据的产量基准更高。\n阿联酋称该国此前出于善意同意了一个非常低的基准数字，令其减产规模“不成比例地更大”，如果减产协议不能按计划在2022年4月结束，阿联酋的损失将更大。因此它希望将产量基准从当前的316.8万桶/日上调至384万桶/日，较高的基准意味着较低的实际减产量，即阿联酋希望自己增产提速。\n阿联酋早就制定了雄心勃勃的增产计划，并已投资数十亿美元提高产能，OPEC+减产协议使其约30%的产能闲置。阿联酋认为，阿塞拜疆、科威特、哈萨克斯坦和尼日利亚等自去年减产协议达成以来，已经要求并提高了产量基准，自己的请求也应被允许。去年底，阿联酋曾威胁退出OPEC。\n独立石油分析师 Anas Alhajji 解释称，在数据方面，其他产油国在2018年10月至2020年4月期间都经历了产量下降，阿联酋调整产量基准的要求会造成市场混乱，使“创造原油市场稳定和清晰的目标无效”，这也是沙特和俄罗斯极力反对该要求的原因。\n\n这对油价会产生什么影响？\n市场对于OPEC+的最初协议整体持欢迎态度。目前市场普遍预期原油需求较去年同期将增长600万桶/日，OPEC+目前的增产计划不会带来库存方面的扰动。\n由于谈判前景不明，目前原油市场基本持观望态度。布伦特原油及WTI原油周五均小幅震荡。\n\n对于阿联酋的要求，瑞银大宗商品分析师Giovanni Staunovo指出，任何调整生产配额的请求都像是打开了潘多拉魔盒 ，其他OPEC+国家也可能要求进行类似调整。\n加拿大皇家银行分析师Helima Croft认为，阿联酋的问题可能会通过沙特和阿联酋的高层会谈解决。考虑目前美伊核协议目前暂无进展，将OPEC+协议的期限延长至2022年的决定将对原油价格上涨起到助推作用。\n但Croft警告称，考虑到新冠疫情仍在持续，谈判破裂将颠覆油价目前的上涨势头。\nOPEC+两大产油国沙特及俄罗斯也存在一定分歧。\n在本周会议的筹备过程中，俄罗斯坚持向市场释放更多石油，因为油价上涨正鼓励竞争对手美国页岩油产量的增长。而沙特希望更谨慎增产，理由是新冠病毒及变种带来很大的不确定性，在需求切实复苏的证据出炉前不应急着大幅增产。\n阿联酋坚决要求扩大自身增产规模，以及俄罗斯迫切希望达成增产协议等多重因素，令OPEC+减产协议完全破裂也不无可能，那时所有国家都可以随心所欲地增产，OPEC+将进入各行其是的时代。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DDG":0.9,"CLmain":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"DWTIF":0.9,"BZmain":0.9,"DWT":0.9,"USO":0.9,"DUG":0.9,"QMmain":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"SCO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155198611,"gmtCreate":1625383987033,"gmtModify":1703741123333,"author":{"id":"4088483890194020","authorId":"4088483890194020","name":"yuilow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7af79272fb44775303405ebf6720a4f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088483890194020","idStr":"4088483890194020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/155198611","repostId":"1168133884","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168133884","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625021330,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168133884?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 10:48","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: U.S. stocks are closed all day on July 5th due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168133884","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"因美国独立日假期，7月5日（周一）美股休市一日，7月6日（周二）起恢复交易。\n港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n背景简介：\n独立日是美国法定国庆日，日期为每年7月4日，以纪念1776年7月","content":"<p><b>Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, U.S. stocks will be closed for one day on July 5th (Monday), and trading will resume on July 6th (Tuesday).</b></p><p>Hong Kong shares, A shares, British shares, Australian shares and Singapore stock markets traded as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p><b>Independence Day</b>Is the statutory national day of the United States, which is dated on July 4 each year to commemorate the formal adoption of the Declaration of Independence by the Continental Congress in Philadelphia on July 4, 1776. America's Independence Day is as grand as religious and folk festivals. People clean their courtyards, decorate their homes and fly the national flag before the festival.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87ddb03d9b4d56cf0dce9450e742016\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"417\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: U.S. stocks are closed all day on July 5th due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: U.S. stocks are closed all day on July 5th due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-30 10:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, U.S. stocks will be closed for one day on July 5th (Monday), and trading will resume on July 6th (Tuesday).</b></p><p>Hong Kong shares, A shares, British shares, Australian shares and Singapore stock markets traded as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p><b>Independence Day</b>Is the statutory national day of the United States, which is dated on July 4 each year to commemorate the formal adoption of the Declaration of Independence by the Continental Congress in Philadelphia on July 4, 1776. America's Independence Day is as grand as religious and folk festivals. People clean their courtyards, decorate their homes and fly the national flag before the festival.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87ddb03d9b4d56cf0dce9450e742016\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"417\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21dd6adec6b29203b5bca22347419441","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168133884","content_text":"因美国独立日假期，7月5日（周一）美股休市一日，7月6日（周二）起恢复交易。\n港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n背景简介：\n独立日是美国法定国庆日，日期为每年7月4日，以纪念1776年7月4日大陆会议在费城正式通过《独立宣言》。美国的独立日，与宗教、民俗节日一样隆重，老百姓在节日前清洁院落，装饰家居，悬挂国旗。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2608,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":816042982,"gmtCreate":1630457637246,"gmtModify":1676530307568,"author":{"id":"4088483890194020","authorId":"4088483890194020","name":"yuilow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7af79272fb44775303405ebf6720a4f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088483890194020","authorIdStr":"4088483890194020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/816042982","repostId":"1175658304","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175658304","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"依托国际金融报平台，第一时间为您传递金融资讯，解读金融热点，评点金融趋势。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"国际金融报","id":"1074704009","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1481705d51964cf2adea5c7bc55e3092"},"pubTimestamp":1630455532,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175658304?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-01 08:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Can US stocks break the \"September curse\"?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175658304","media":"国际金融报","summary":"CFRA数据显示，历年来，标普500指数在9月只有45%的时间上涨，是12个月份中上涨几率最低的月份。\n\n\n据CFRA首席投资策略师Sam Stovall的统计，9月是标普500指数一年中表现最糟糕的","content":"<p><div>Over the years, the S&P 500 has only risen 45% of the time in September, the lowest chance of rising in 12 months, according to CFRA data. September was the worst month of the year for the S&P 500, with an average decline of 0.56% since 1945, according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. Over the years, the S&P 500 has only risen 45% of the time in September, the lowest chance of a rally in 12 months, according to CFRA data. Since the beginning of this year, the US stock market has been in full swing. On August 30th, local time,...</p><p><a href=\"None\">Web link</a></div></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can US stocks break the \"September curse\"?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan US stocks break the \"September curse\"?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1074704009\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/1481705d51964cf2adea5c7bc55e3092);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">国际金融报 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-01 08:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Over the years, the S&P 500 has only risen 45% of the time in September, the lowest chance of rising in 12 months, according to CFRA data. September was the worst month of the year for the S&P 500, with an average decline of 0.56% since 1945, according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. Over the years, the S&P 500 has only risen 45% of the time in September, the lowest chance of a rally in 12 months, according to CFRA data. Since the beginning of this year, the US stock market has been in full swing. On August 30th, local time,...</p><p><a href=\"None\">Web link</a></div></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a2fd1a464aca83609f7983bf74ba2d5","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF博时","SPY":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175658304","content_text":"CFRA数据显示，历年来，标普500指数在9月只有45%的时间上涨，是12个月份中上涨几率最低的月份。\n\n\n据CFRA首席投资策略师Sam Stovall的统计，9月是标普500指数一年中表现最糟糕的月份，自1945年以来平均跌幅为0.56%。\nCFRA数据显示，历年来，标普500指数在9月只有45%的时间上涨，是12个月份中上涨几率最低的月份。\n今年以来，美股气势如虹，当地时间8月30日，标普500指数涨0.43%，报4528.79点，创下今年第53次收盘新高纪录。\n美股能否继续高歌猛进，打破“九月魔咒”？\n企业高收益支撑牛市表现\n贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官Rick Rieder近日表示，主要企业的强劲收益和现金流意味着美股应该能够维持创纪录的高位。\n据高盛最近研究显示，预期标普500指数成分股公司2021年将追加现金支出，至2.8万亿美元，主要用于资本支出、合并或其他类型的业务投资。与此同时，截至7月，各公司已批准超过6800亿美元的股票回购，此数据仅次于2018年创下的2000年以来最高水平。\n《华尔街日报》指出，这意味着形势与去年相比有了天壤之别，去年各公司为了应对疫情的干扰，曾大幅削减支出，下调股息，还放缓了股票回购计划，同时大举借贷以增强其资产负债表。反观当下，在经济复苏的情况下，企业现金充裕，总体而言都在发布增加支出的计划。\nRieder指出，零售商强劲的财报和科技企业的利润率证明，即使股指创下历史新高，许多股票的回报率仍具有吸引力。他表示，有些股票确实太高了，但不是整个市场。\n美银证券上周的数据显示，企业回购股票规模达到3月中旬以来的最高水平，这是支撑股市的一个潜在因素。美银表示，回购企业以金融股为主，创下2010年以来的最高单周回购额。\n瑞银集团上周上调了标准普尔500指数成分股每股获利预估，称其对经济前景看好。“由于美国家庭去年积累了数万亿美元的储蓄，消费者的资产负债表达到了几十年来的最高水平。此外，就业正在复苏，最近的就业数据好于预期。因此，即使在疫情最严重的时候，消费者支出得到了政府刺激计划的补贴，持续的就业增长应该会推动消费者支出上升”。\n本周五，美国劳工部将公布8月非农业就业报告，经济学家预期新增就业人口将达75万人，相较于7月的大增94.3万人。8月失业率估计由5.4％下降至5.2％。\n或出现高达10%的回调\n尽管市场上仍充斥着乐观情绪，但上周，“股神”巴菲特青睐的市场指标飙升至205%的创纪录高点。\n所谓的“巴菲特指标”，是指美股总市值与美国GDP之比，被投资者和研究人士广泛用来衡量美股是否过热。巴菲特曾将这一指标形容为“任何时刻衡量估值水平的最佳单一指标”。达到创纪录高点表明，当前股票估值过高，崩盘可能即将来临。\n上周，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊·霍尔央行年会上表示，美联储可能在今年年底前开始缩减资产购买，不过他仍认为加息的可能性还很遥远。\n鲍威尔强调，缩减资产购买的时机和速度，不会对加息时机发出直接信号。鲍威尔还援引上世纪50年代的货币政策经验教训称，如果冒然采取了遏制暂时通胀的“不合时宜的政策”，可能带来更大的伤害。\n摩根士丹利指出，随着创纪录的GDP和公司盈利增长、通胀上升以及德尔塔感染率开始下行，美联储取消货币宽松政策的压力可能增大，美联储最快有可能在9月的议息会议上宣布缩表决定。同时，从历史表现来看，9月往往是美股全年表现最疲软的月份，所以投资者需要警惕美股可能会出现高达10%的回调。\n此外，根据来自Refinitiv旗下IBES的统计数据，随着美国经济从疫情封锁中持续复苏，标普500指数成份股公司第二季度利润同比增长95%，创1994年启动统计以来的最高纪录。不过，强劲反弹的势头即将戛然而止，机构分析师预测，三季度美国企业盈利增速将大幅回落至30%。\n花旗首席股票策略师Tobias Levkovich从今年6月就预计标普500指数今年年终前会下跌至4000点左右，并预计美股的调整最快可能就在9月。他给出的四个值得市场担忧的因素包括美联储缩减购债、通胀不断上升、企业利润率压力和企业税上调。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513500":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"QID":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2439,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149153896,"gmtCreate":1625710634315,"gmtModify":1703746872822,"author":{"id":"4088483890194020","authorId":"4088483890194020","name":"yuilow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7af79272fb44775303405ebf6720a4f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088483890194020","authorIdStr":"4088483890194020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/149153896","repostId":"2149316261","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2149316261","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1625687502,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2149316261?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-08 03:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Fed's June FOMC Minutes: Inflation Remains Consensus For Now, Methodology Deeply Divided","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2149316261","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"纪要承认经济和通胀升幅超出一些官员预期，但通胀是暂时的。会议讨论过资产购买，除了建议保持耐心还呈现较大的方法论分歧，特别是MBS和国债能否按比例同步缩减。有分析称，官员们认为会比预期更早地开始缩减购债","content":"<p>The minutes acknowledged that the economy and inflation rose more than some officials expected, but that inflation was temporary. The meeting discussed asset purchases, and in addition to suggesting patience, there were large methodological differences, especially whether MBS and Treasury Bond could be reduced proportionally and simultaneously. Some analysts say that officials believe that they will start tapering bond purchases earlier than expected. On Wednesday, July 7, at 2 p.m. in Eastern America, the Federal Reserve released the full minutes of the closely watched FOMC monetary policy meeting from June 15 to 16.</p><p>As the Federal Reserve released hawkish signals that surprised the market at its June meeting, such as sharply raising its economic and inflation expectations this year and advancing officials' rate hike forecasts to 2023, investors pay attention to the Fed's views on the economic situation such as inflation and employment in the United States mentioned in the minutes, and whether the officials at the meeting will release more clues around \"discussing when to start reducing QE (i.e. taper)\".</p><p>The minutes show that monetary policymakers are expected to continue to make progress on \"reaching the threshold to start reducing QE\", but the main tone of the meeting remains the need to be patient in tightening monetary policy.</p><p>The Federal Reserve has indeed started to discuss tapering its bond purchases, but it can't reach a consensus and will continue to discuss it in the future. For example, some officials believe purchases of mortgage bonds (MBS) can be cut relatively sooner or faster, while others are explicitly opposed.</p><p>At the same time, the minutes also reiterated the Fed's view this year that although inflation is rising faster than officials expected, they still believe that the current upward trend of inflation is temporary and generally does not meet the premise of \"substantial further progress\" to start tightening policy.</p><p><b>The market changed little, the Nasdaq briefly turned up, and the long-term U.S. bond yield maintained a decline</b></p><p>After the release of the minutes, US stocks did not change much, the Dow and S&P 500 kept their gains, and the Nasdaq stopped falling and turned up. The yield of 10-year U.S. bonds maintained a decline of 5 basis points in the day, gold and silver rose slightly, and spot gold stood firm above the $1,800 mark.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b7f7a28c324185f3efb18df47d5ccab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"68\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Before the release of the minutes, the Dow and S&P 500 rose moderately. The S&P market rose 0.3% at the beginning of the session and hit a record intraday high, while the Nasdaq turned slightly lower after hitting a record high shortly after the opening.</p><p>Long-term U.S. bond yields continued their deep decline in recent days. The yield of the 10-year benchmark U.S. bond fell by 7.4 basis points in the day, once falling below 1.30% and hitting the lowest in five months. Before the release of FOMC minutes, it returned to above 1.32%, and the intraday decline narrowed to 4.5 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb9152422cfe8dbfab14bb56370f95e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to the analysis, the yield of long-term U.S. bonds has dropped sharply, highlighting the market's concerns about the growth prospects of the U.S. economy. Many people think that the recovery may have peaked, and the highly contagious COVID-19 Delta mutant strain has brought new hidden dangers.</p><p><b>The Fed consensus is \"inflation temporary\", but there is no agreement on the future inflation path</b></p><p>There are still analysts questioning the Fed's judgment that \"inflation is only temporary\". Officials at the June FOMC meeting said they were already expecting inflation to exceed 2% in the short term, partly due to the base effect of falling prices early in the pandemic and the fact that higher oil prices have been passed on to consumer energy prices, according to minutes from the June FOMC meeting.</p><p>Still, officials acknowledged that \"the real rise in inflation was greater than expected\". most (most) officials cited the main reasons as wider-than-expected supply constraints in the goods and labor markets and a larger-than-expected surge in consumer demand as the economy reopened.</p><p><b>The minutes emphasized that \"inflation is temporary\" as a consensus among officials, although there were many participants who believed that upward pressure on prices would continue into next year.</b>They also noted in particular that long-term inflation expectations remain in line with the FOMC's long-term inflation target:</p><p>\"Looking ahead, participants generally expected inflation to ease as the effects of these temporary factors dissipated, but some (several) officials noted that they expected supply chain constraints and input shortages to put upward pressure on prices next year as well. Uncertainty remained high in the early months of economic reopening and it was impossible to accurately assess how long inflationary pressures would last, some (several) officials said. some said the recent reading of inflation measures, which exclude volatility, has been steady at 2% or slightly lower. A number of participants argued that the measure of long-term inflation expectations remained broadly in line with the Committee's long-term inflation target, despite the increase earlier this year. others have pointed out that it is the growth in the aforementioned metrics this year that has brought it to levels broadly in line with the Committee's long-term inflation target. \" Of course, Fed officials are not mincing the fact that the magnitude of inflation upward this year is somewhat surprising.<b>However, the minutes of the meeting revealed their disagreement on the future path of inflation, which may be one reason for policy patience for the time being.</b></p><p>For example, while they \"generally agree\" that the risks to the U.S. economic outlook are roughly balanced, a substantial majority of participants believe that the risks to their inflation forecasts are skewed upward:</p><p>\"This is because they are concerned that supply disruptions and labor shortages could last longer and could lead to a greater or more lasting impact on prices and wages than they currently assume. Some (several) officials are concerned that long-term inflation expectations could rise to inappropriate levels if inflation readings continue to rise. But several other officials warned that downside risks to inflation remain as temporary price pressures could subside sooner than currently anticipated. And, the forces that suppressed inflation and its expectations during previous economic expansions have not disappeared and may even reinforce the process of temporary price pressures dissipating in the future. \"<b>The Fed has a lot of dispute over when taper and the methodology, especially whether MBS and Treasury Bond can scale back proportionately</b></p><p>The minutes show that the June FOMC meeting \"discussed the Fed's asset purchases\" and the progress of adopting forward-looking guidance on bond purchases since December to meet the committee's goals. Officials at the meeting concluded that they \"generally agree\" that \"substantial further progress\" has not been made to meet the policy threshold for tightening, but they expect progress to continue.</p><p>It is worth noting that,<b>The minutes reveal that the Fed is currently divided internally over when to start tapering and how to start tapering</b>, which may also be another reason why the Fed is temporarily sitting on the sidelines in the face of economic and inflation data.</p><p>various officials who supported reducing bond purchases \"sooner rather than later\" said that, judging from the data, they expected \"the conditions to start slowing down the pace of asset purchases to be met\" sooner than expected at the previous meeting.</p><p>More specifically, given excessive valuation pressures in the housing market, some (several) officials believe it would be beneficial for the Fed to reduce its purchases of MBS \"sooner or sooner\" than it would buy U.S. Treasury Bond.</p><p>However, several (some) officials objected that the current data provided less clear signals about underlying economic momentum.</p><p>several others said that it would be desirable to commensurately reduce the pace of Treasury Bond and MBS purchases, because this approach would be fully consistent with the market communication before the FOMC, and both the purchase of Treasury Bond and MBS provide easing policies by affecting financial conditions more broadly.</p><p>Overall, several (several) officials emphasized that the FOMC should be patient in assessing progress towards its goals and announcing changes to its asset purchase program, and that information in the coming months will better assess the movement of the labor market and inflation:</p><p>\"Officials at the meeting generally agreed that, as part of prudent planning, it is important to be prepared to reduce the pace of asset purchases, where appropriate, in response to unexpected economic developments, including achieving the Commission's goals faster than anticipated, or risks that could hinder the achievement of the Commission's goals. At the following meeting, participants agreed to continue to assess the progress of the economy towards the Commission's goals and begin discussions on plans to adjust the path and composition of asset purchases. Participants reiterated that they would notify the market as early as possible before an announcement to reduce the pace of bond purchases. \"<b>The Federal Reserve highlighted the rising uncertainty of the outlook caused by the pandemic and supported the establishment of multiple standing repo instruments</b></p><p>In evaluating the current economic conditions and prospects, the officials at the meeting acknowledged that with vaccination progress and strong policy support, the indicators of economic activity and employment in the United States have strengthened, the industries most affected by the epidemic are still weak but have improved, the overall financial situation remains loose, and the soaring consumer spending has prompted them to raise their real GDP growth forecasts for this year.</p><p>They expect labor market conditions to continue to improve, with labor shortages easing throughout the summer and fall as vaccinations continue, social distancing policies gradually ease, more schools reopen, and expanded unemployment benefits expire. A few mentioned that the economic conditions set out in the forward guidance for Federal Funds rate would be reached a little earlier than they had forecast in March.</p><p>But many (many) officials noted that the economy is still \"far from achieving the broad and inclusive maximum employment target,\" and some (some) said that while recent job growth has been strong, it has been weaker than they had expected. A number of people pointed out that the labor market recovery remains uneven across ethnicities, income groups, and across industries.</p><p><b>At the same time, some (several) highlighted that low interest rates are causing house prices to rise, while high valuation pressures in the housing market may pose financial stability risks.</b></p><p>Overall, officials at their June meeting \"generally agreed\" that supply disruptions and labor shortages will constrain U.S. economic expansion this year, and they also generally agreed that the direction of the economy will largely depend on the course of the virus and that risks to the economic outlook remain. Therefore, the June meeting stood still on major monetary policies such as interest rates and debt buying, waiting for more data to correct officials' judgments in the future:</p><p>\"Officials at the meeting noted that the process of reopening the economy is unprecedented and that there may be imbalances between industries. some (some) believe that supply chain disruptions and labor shortages complicate the task of assessing progress on the committee's goals and that the rate at which these factors dissipate is uncertain. As a result, officials see increased uncertainty surrounding their economic projections. Although inflation rose more than expected, it was largely seen as reflecting temporary factors, with officials at the meeting expecting inflation to decline towards the FOMC Committee's long-term target of 2%. They argue that current monetary policy and forward guidance remain suitable for boosting maximum employment, achieving an inflation rate of 2% on average over time, and inflation expectations of 2% stable over the long term. several emphasized that uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook is elevated and that it is too early to draw definitive conclusions about the labour market and the path of inflation. In their view, this heightened uncertainty in economic development also means that there is significant uncertainty about the appropriate path for Federal Funds rate. At the same time, officials also discussed recent trends in the short-term financing market,<b>They generally support the establishment of a Standing Repo Facilitation Facility (SRF) within the United States and the transformation of temporary repo agreements for overseas and international monetary institutions during the pandemic into a Standing Mechanism.</b>They generally hope that these instruments will play a supportive role in promoting the effective implementation of monetary policy and ensuring the smooth functioning of markets, and specific design options will continue to be discussed.</p><p>In terms of monetary policy implementation, officials admitted that during the two FOMC meetings, money market interest rates faced downward pressure, and it is more likely that these interest rates will fall further in the near future. So they support an adjustment to the Fed's managed rate to help Federal Funds rate stay within the target range.</p><p>In June, the Federal Reserve raised the excess reserve rate (IOER), which is the upper limit of the benchmark interest rate corridor, and the overnight reverse repo rate (ON RRP), which is the lower limit of the corridor, by 5 basis points each to suppress the recent excess liquidity. Officials at the meeting \"agreed\" that this technical adjustment has nothing to do with the appropriate path of Federal Funds rate or the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance.</p><p><b>Analysis: Officials think tapering will begin sooner than expected, minutes reveal</b></p><p>According to Bloomberg analysis, the minutes of the meeting clearly showed that many Fed officials were nervous about the inflation trend in June, and they also thought that they would start to scale back asset purchases earlier than previously expected. Several officials' comments on the relationship between low interest rates and an overheated housing market may mean that this will increasingly play a role in the debate over when and how quickly to begin rate hike.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal also said that the minutes of the meeting showed that in view of the stronger-than-expected economic growth this year, Fed officials admitted that they may need to withdraw their easing policy support for the economy sooner than expected. Although they emphasized patience with the QE program, they also argued that bond purchases should end early.</p><p>CNBC, the financial media, believes that the minutes of this meeting have basically made no contribution to taper, a hot topic in the market. The full text only reiterates that officials are \"considering talking about tapering\" (Talking about talking about tapering), with little other progress.</p><p>Reuters noted that in the text of the minutes, the Fed mentioned that it must \"be fully prepared\" before cutting the pace of bond purchases. Although the minutes do not clarify exactly when the bond purchase and interest rate policy will begin to be adjusted, it does show that the Fed is beginning to seriously discuss the matter. Bob Miller, head of fixed income in the Americas at BlackRock, said that monetary policy adjustment has been put on the table, but the Federal Reserve has serious internal differences.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed's June FOMC Minutes: Inflation Remains Consensus For Now, Methodology Deeply Divided</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed's June FOMC Minutes: Inflation Remains Consensus For Now, Methodology Deeply Divided\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-08 03:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The minutes acknowledged that the economy and inflation rose more than some officials expected, but that inflation was temporary. The meeting discussed asset purchases, and in addition to suggesting patience, there were large methodological differences, especially whether MBS and Treasury Bond could be reduced proportionally and simultaneously. Some analysts say that officials believe that they will start tapering bond purchases earlier than expected. On Wednesday, July 7, at 2 p.m. in Eastern America, the Federal Reserve released the full minutes of the closely watched FOMC monetary policy meeting from June 15 to 16.</p><p>As the Federal Reserve released hawkish signals that surprised the market at its June meeting, such as sharply raising its economic and inflation expectations this year and advancing officials' rate hike forecasts to 2023, investors pay attention to the Fed's views on the economic situation such as inflation and employment in the United States mentioned in the minutes, and whether the officials at the meeting will release more clues around \"discussing when to start reducing QE (i.e. taper)\".</p><p>The minutes show that monetary policymakers are expected to continue to make progress on \"reaching the threshold to start reducing QE\", but the main tone of the meeting remains the need to be patient in tightening monetary policy.</p><p>The Federal Reserve has indeed started to discuss tapering its bond purchases, but it can't reach a consensus and will continue to discuss it in the future. For example, some officials believe purchases of mortgage bonds (MBS) can be cut relatively sooner or faster, while others are explicitly opposed.</p><p>At the same time, the minutes also reiterated the Fed's view this year that although inflation is rising faster than officials expected, they still believe that the current upward trend of inflation is temporary and generally does not meet the premise of \"substantial further progress\" to start tightening policy.</p><p><b>The market changed little, the Nasdaq briefly turned up, and the long-term U.S. bond yield maintained a decline</b></p><p>After the release of the minutes, US stocks did not change much, the Dow and S&P 500 kept their gains, and the Nasdaq stopped falling and turned up. The yield of 10-year U.S. bonds maintained a decline of 5 basis points in the day, gold and silver rose slightly, and spot gold stood firm above the $1,800 mark.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b7f7a28c324185f3efb18df47d5ccab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"68\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Before the release of the minutes, the Dow and S&P 500 rose moderately. The S&P market rose 0.3% at the beginning of the session and hit a record intraday high, while the Nasdaq turned slightly lower after hitting a record high shortly after the opening.</p><p>Long-term U.S. bond yields continued their deep decline in recent days. The yield of the 10-year benchmark U.S. bond fell by 7.4 basis points in the day, once falling below 1.30% and hitting the lowest in five months. Before the release of FOMC minutes, it returned to above 1.32%, and the intraday decline narrowed to 4.5 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb9152422cfe8dbfab14bb56370f95e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to the analysis, the yield of long-term U.S. bonds has dropped sharply, highlighting the market's concerns about the growth prospects of the U.S. economy. Many people think that the recovery may have peaked, and the highly contagious COVID-19 Delta mutant strain has brought new hidden dangers.</p><p><b>The Fed consensus is \"inflation temporary\", but there is no agreement on the future inflation path</b></p><p>There are still analysts questioning the Fed's judgment that \"inflation is only temporary\". Officials at the June FOMC meeting said they were already expecting inflation to exceed 2% in the short term, partly due to the base effect of falling prices early in the pandemic and the fact that higher oil prices have been passed on to consumer energy prices, according to minutes from the June FOMC meeting.</p><p>Still, officials acknowledged that \"the real rise in inflation was greater than expected\". most (most) officials cited the main reasons as wider-than-expected supply constraints in the goods and labor markets and a larger-than-expected surge in consumer demand as the economy reopened.</p><p><b>The minutes emphasized that \"inflation is temporary\" as a consensus among officials, although there were many participants who believed that upward pressure on prices would continue into next year.</b>They also noted in particular that long-term inflation expectations remain in line with the FOMC's long-term inflation target:</p><p>\"Looking ahead, participants generally expected inflation to ease as the effects of these temporary factors dissipated, but some (several) officials noted that they expected supply chain constraints and input shortages to put upward pressure on prices next year as well. Uncertainty remained high in the early months of economic reopening and it was impossible to accurately assess how long inflationary pressures would last, some (several) officials said. some said the recent reading of inflation measures, which exclude volatility, has been steady at 2% or slightly lower. A number of participants argued that the measure of long-term inflation expectations remained broadly in line with the Committee's long-term inflation target, despite the increase earlier this year. others have pointed out that it is the growth in the aforementioned metrics this year that has brought it to levels broadly in line with the Committee's long-term inflation target. \" Of course, Fed officials are not mincing the fact that the magnitude of inflation upward this year is somewhat surprising.<b>However, the minutes of the meeting revealed their disagreement on the future path of inflation, which may be one reason for policy patience for the time being.</b></p><p>For example, while they \"generally agree\" that the risks to the U.S. economic outlook are roughly balanced, a substantial majority of participants believe that the risks to their inflation forecasts are skewed upward:</p><p>\"This is because they are concerned that supply disruptions and labor shortages could last longer and could lead to a greater or more lasting impact on prices and wages than they currently assume. Some (several) officials are concerned that long-term inflation expectations could rise to inappropriate levels if inflation readings continue to rise. But several other officials warned that downside risks to inflation remain as temporary price pressures could subside sooner than currently anticipated. And, the forces that suppressed inflation and its expectations during previous economic expansions have not disappeared and may even reinforce the process of temporary price pressures dissipating in the future. \"<b>The Fed has a lot of dispute over when taper and the methodology, especially whether MBS and Treasury Bond can scale back proportionately</b></p><p>The minutes show that the June FOMC meeting \"discussed the Fed's asset purchases\" and the progress of adopting forward-looking guidance on bond purchases since December to meet the committee's goals. Officials at the meeting concluded that they \"generally agree\" that \"substantial further progress\" has not been made to meet the policy threshold for tightening, but they expect progress to continue.</p><p>It is worth noting that,<b>The minutes reveal that the Fed is currently divided internally over when to start tapering and how to start tapering</b>, which may also be another reason why the Fed is temporarily sitting on the sidelines in the face of economic and inflation data.</p><p>various officials who supported reducing bond purchases \"sooner rather than later\" said that, judging from the data, they expected \"the conditions to start slowing down the pace of asset purchases to be met\" sooner than expected at the previous meeting.</p><p>More specifically, given excessive valuation pressures in the housing market, some (several) officials believe it would be beneficial for the Fed to reduce its purchases of MBS \"sooner or sooner\" than it would buy U.S. Treasury Bond.</p><p>However, several (some) officials objected that the current data provided less clear signals about underlying economic momentum.</p><p>several others said that it would be desirable to commensurately reduce the pace of Treasury Bond and MBS purchases, because this approach would be fully consistent with the market communication before the FOMC, and both the purchase of Treasury Bond and MBS provide easing policies by affecting financial conditions more broadly.</p><p>Overall, several (several) officials emphasized that the FOMC should be patient in assessing progress towards its goals and announcing changes to its asset purchase program, and that information in the coming months will better assess the movement of the labor market and inflation:</p><p>\"Officials at the meeting generally agreed that, as part of prudent planning, it is important to be prepared to reduce the pace of asset purchases, where appropriate, in response to unexpected economic developments, including achieving the Commission's goals faster than anticipated, or risks that could hinder the achievement of the Commission's goals. At the following meeting, participants agreed to continue to assess the progress of the economy towards the Commission's goals and begin discussions on plans to adjust the path and composition of asset purchases. Participants reiterated that they would notify the market as early as possible before an announcement to reduce the pace of bond purchases. \"<b>The Federal Reserve highlighted the rising uncertainty of the outlook caused by the pandemic and supported the establishment of multiple standing repo instruments</b></p><p>In evaluating the current economic conditions and prospects, the officials at the meeting acknowledged that with vaccination progress and strong policy support, the indicators of economic activity and employment in the United States have strengthened, the industries most affected by the epidemic are still weak but have improved, the overall financial situation remains loose, and the soaring consumer spending has prompted them to raise their real GDP growth forecasts for this year.</p><p>They expect labor market conditions to continue to improve, with labor shortages easing throughout the summer and fall as vaccinations continue, social distancing policies gradually ease, more schools reopen, and expanded unemployment benefits expire. A few mentioned that the economic conditions set out in the forward guidance for Federal Funds rate would be reached a little earlier than they had forecast in March.</p><p>But many (many) officials noted that the economy is still \"far from achieving the broad and inclusive maximum employment target,\" and some (some) said that while recent job growth has been strong, it has been weaker than they had expected. A number of people pointed out that the labor market recovery remains uneven across ethnicities, income groups, and across industries.</p><p><b>At the same time, some (several) highlighted that low interest rates are causing house prices to rise, while high valuation pressures in the housing market may pose financial stability risks.</b></p><p>Overall, officials at their June meeting \"generally agreed\" that supply disruptions and labor shortages will constrain U.S. economic expansion this year, and they also generally agreed that the direction of the economy will largely depend on the course of the virus and that risks to the economic outlook remain. Therefore, the June meeting stood still on major monetary policies such as interest rates and debt buying, waiting for more data to correct officials' judgments in the future:</p><p>\"Officials at the meeting noted that the process of reopening the economy is unprecedented and that there may be imbalances between industries. some (some) believe that supply chain disruptions and labor shortages complicate the task of assessing progress on the committee's goals and that the rate at which these factors dissipate is uncertain. As a result, officials see increased uncertainty surrounding their economic projections. Although inflation rose more than expected, it was largely seen as reflecting temporary factors, with officials at the meeting expecting inflation to decline towards the FOMC Committee's long-term target of 2%. They argue that current monetary policy and forward guidance remain suitable for boosting maximum employment, achieving an inflation rate of 2% on average over time, and inflation expectations of 2% stable over the long term. several emphasized that uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook is elevated and that it is too early to draw definitive conclusions about the labour market and the path of inflation. In their view, this heightened uncertainty in economic development also means that there is significant uncertainty about the appropriate path for Federal Funds rate. At the same time, officials also discussed recent trends in the short-term financing market,<b>They generally support the establishment of a Standing Repo Facilitation Facility (SRF) within the United States and the transformation of temporary repo agreements for overseas and international monetary institutions during the pandemic into a Standing Mechanism.</b>They generally hope that these instruments will play a supportive role in promoting the effective implementation of monetary policy and ensuring the smooth functioning of markets, and specific design options will continue to be discussed.</p><p>In terms of monetary policy implementation, officials admitted that during the two FOMC meetings, money market interest rates faced downward pressure, and it is more likely that these interest rates will fall further in the near future. So they support an adjustment to the Fed's managed rate to help Federal Funds rate stay within the target range.</p><p>In June, the Federal Reserve raised the excess reserve rate (IOER), which is the upper limit of the benchmark interest rate corridor, and the overnight reverse repo rate (ON RRP), which is the lower limit of the corridor, by 5 basis points each to suppress the recent excess liquidity. Officials at the meeting \"agreed\" that this technical adjustment has nothing to do with the appropriate path of Federal Funds rate or the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance.</p><p><b>Analysis: Officials think tapering will begin sooner than expected, minutes reveal</b></p><p>According to Bloomberg analysis, the minutes of the meeting clearly showed that many Fed officials were nervous about the inflation trend in June, and they also thought that they would start to scale back asset purchases earlier than previously expected. Several officials' comments on the relationship between low interest rates and an overheated housing market may mean that this will increasingly play a role in the debate over when and how quickly to begin rate hike.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal also said that the minutes of the meeting showed that in view of the stronger-than-expected economic growth this year, Fed officials admitted that they may need to withdraw their easing policy support for the economy sooner than expected. Although they emphasized patience with the QE program, they also argued that bond purchases should end early.</p><p>CNBC, the financial media, believes that the minutes of this meeting have basically made no contribution to taper, a hot topic in the market. The full text only reiterates that officials are \"considering talking about tapering\" (Talking about talking about tapering), with little other progress.</p><p>Reuters noted that in the text of the minutes, the Fed mentioned that it must \"be fully prepared\" before cutting the pace of bond purchases. Although the minutes do not clarify exactly when the bond purchase and interest rate policy will begin to be adjusted, it does show that the Fed is beginning to seriously discuss the matter. Bob Miller, head of fixed income in the Americas at BlackRock, said that monetary policy adjustment has been put on the table, but the Federal Reserve has serious internal differences.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2149316261","content_text":"纪要承认经济和通胀升幅超出一些官员预期，但通胀是暂时的。会议讨论过资产购买，除了建议保持耐心还呈现较大的方法论分歧，特别是MBS和国债能否按比例同步缩减。有分析称，官员们认为会比预期更早地开始缩减购债规模。\n\n7月7日美东周三下午2点，美联储发布了备受关注的6月15日至16日FOMC货币政策会议完整纪要。\n由于美联储在6月会上释放出令市场意外的鹰派信号，例如大幅上调今年经济和通胀预期，以及将官员们的加息预测提前至2023年，因此，投资者关注纪要中提到的美联储对美国通胀和就业等经济形势看法，以及与会官员们是否会围绕“讨论何时开始减码QE（即taper）”释放更多线索。\n纪要显示，货币政策制定者们预计将继续在“达到开始减码QE的门槛”上取得进展，但会议的主基调仍是在收紧货币政策方面需要保持耐心。\n美联储确实已经开始讨论缩减购债（taper）的事宜，不过无法达成共识，未来将继续讨论。例如，一些官员认为对抵押贷款债券（MBS）的购买可以相对更早或更快削减，另一些人则明确表示反对。\n同时，纪要还重申了美联储今年以来的观点，即尽管通胀上升速度快于官员们预期，他们仍认为当前的通胀上行趋势是暂时的，总体上没有达到启动紧缩政策的“实质性进一步进展”前提。\n市场变动不大，纳指短暂转涨，长端美债收益率保持跌势\n纪要发布后，美股变动不大，道指和标普500指数保持涨势，纳指止跌转涨。10年期美债收益率维持日内5个基点的跌幅，金银小幅上涨，现货黄金站稳1800美元关口上方。\n\n在纪要发布前，道指和标普500指数温和上涨，标普大盘盘初曾涨0.3%并创盘中历史新高，纳指则在开盘不久创新高后小幅转跌。\n长端美债收益率延续近日来的深度跌幅。10年期基准美债收益率日内最深下行7.4个基点，一度跌破1.30%并创五个月最低，FOMC纪要发布前重回1.32%上方，日内降幅收窄至4.5个基点。\n\n分析称，长端美债收益率大幅走低，凸显出市场对美国经济增长前景的担忧，不少人认为复苏可能已经触顶，以及高传染性的新冠Delta变异毒株带来崭新隐患。\n美联储共识是“通胀暂时论”，但对未来通胀路径莫衷一是\n仍有分析师质疑美联储对“通胀只是暂时”的判断。6月FOMC会议纪要显示，与会官员们表示，他们已经预计到了短期通胀将超过2%，部分原因是疫情初期价格下跌的基数效应，以及油价上涨已传递到消费者能源价格。\n不过，官员们还是承认，“通胀的实际升幅大于预期”。大多数（most）官员认为主因是商品和劳动力市场的供应限制比预期更广泛，以及随着经济重新开放，消费者的需求激增超出预期。\n纪要强调了“通胀是暂时的”为官员间共识，尽管不乏有与会者认为价格上行压力会持续到明年。他们还格外指出，长期通胀预期仍保持与FOMC的长期通胀目标一致：\n\n “展望未来，与会者普遍预期通胀会随着这些暂时性因素的影响消散而缓解，但一些（several）官员指出，他们预计供应链限制和投入品短缺将在明年也对价格构成上行压力。\n\n\n 一些（several）官员称，在经济重新开放的最初几个月，不确定性仍然很高，无法准确评估通胀压力持续多久。几人（some）称，剔除波动成分的通胀指标近期读数一直稳定在2%或略低水平。\n\n\n 多位（a number of）与会者认为，尽管今年早期有所增加，长期通胀预期指标仍保持在与委员会的长期通胀目标基本一致范围内。其他人（others）指出，正是今年上述指标的增长使其达到了与委员会长期通胀目标大体一致的水平。”\n\n当然，美联储官员们并不讳言今年通胀上行的幅度有些令人意外。不过，会议纪要透露出他们对通胀未来的路径莫衷一是，这可能是暂时保持政策耐心的原因之一。\n例如，尽管他们“普遍认为”美国经济前景面临的风险大致平衡，但绝大多数（a substantial majority of）与会者认为，他们的通胀预测风险偏向上行：\n\n “这是因为他们担心供应中断和劳动力短缺可能会持续更长时间，并可能导致对价格和工资的影响比他们目前假设的更大或更持久。\n\n\n 一些（several）官员担心，如果通胀读数持续升高，长期通胀预期可能会升至不适当的水平。\n\n\n 但其他几位（several other）官员警告称，通胀的下行风险仍然存在，因为暂时的价格压力可能会比目前预期得更快消退。而且，之前经济扩张期间压低通胀及其预期的力量并未消失，甚至可能会强化未来暂时价格压力消散的过程。”\n\n美联储对何时taper及方法论争议很大，特别是MBS和国债能否按比例同步缩减\n纪要显示，6月FOMC会议“讨论了美联储的资产购买”，以及自去年12月来采纳买债前瞻指引以实现委员会目标的进展。与会官员的结论是，他们“普遍认为”尚未取得满足收紧政策门槛的“实质性进一步进展”，但他们预计将继续取得进展。\n值得注意的是，纪要透露出，美联储目前对何时可以开始缩减购债（taper），以及该如何开始taper存在很大内部分歧，这可能也是美联储在经济和通胀数据面前暂时按兵不动的另一个原因。\n支持“宜早不宜迟”减少购债的多位（various）与会官员称，从数据来判断，他们预计“达到开始放缓资产购买步伐的条件”将比之前会议上的预期更早一些。\n更具体来说，鉴于房地产市场的过高估值压力，一些（several）官员认为，相比于购买美国国债，美联储“更快或更早地”减少购买MBS是有益的。\n然而，几位（some）官员反对称，当前数据提供关于潜在经济势头的信号不太明确。\n另有多人（several other）称，按照比例同步（commensurately）降低国债和MBS 购买步伐才是可取的，因为这种方法将与FOMC之前的市场沟通完全一致，而且购买国债和MBS都通过更广泛地影响金融状况来提供了宽松政策。\n总体来说，几位（several）官员强调，FOMC在评估实现其目标的进展和宣布资产购买计划变更时应保持耐心，未来几个月的信息将更好评估劳动力市场和通胀的走势：\n\n “与会官员普遍认为，作为审慎规划的一部分，重要的是要做好准备以在适当情况下降低资产购买的步伐，以应对意外的经济发展，包括实现委员会目标的速度快于预期，或出现可能阻碍实现委员会目标的风险。\n\n\n 在接下来的会议上，与会者同意继续评估经济在实现委员会目标方面的进展，并开始讨论调整资产购买路径和构成的计划。参与者重申将在发布减少购债速度的公告之前尽早向市场发出通知。”\n\n美联储强调疫情导致前景不确定性升高，支持设置多种常备回购工具\n在评价当前经济状况和前景时，与会官员们承认，在疫苗接种进展和强有力的政策支持下，美国经济活动和就业指标有所增强，受疫情影响最严重的行业仍然疲软但已出现改善，整体金融状况依旧宽松，消费者支出飙升促使他们上调了对今年实际GDP的增长预测。\n他们预计劳动力市场状况将继续改善，随着疫苗接种继续推进、社交距离政策逐步放松、更多学校重新开学，以及扩大的失业救济到期，劳动力短缺情况将在整个夏季和秋季缓解。一些人（a few）提到，达成联邦基金利率前瞻指引中规定的经济状况将比他们在3月的预测稍早一些。\n但许多（many）官员指出，经济仍“远未实现广泛且具有包容性的最大就业目标”，一些（some）官员称，虽然近期就业增长强劲，但弱于他们的预期。几人（a number of）指出，劳动力市场复苏在不同族裔、收入群体以及跨行业之间仍然不平衡。\n同时，一些（several）人强调，低利率正在导致房价上涨，而房地产市场的高估值压力可能会带来金融稳定风险。\n整体来说，官员们在6月会议上“普遍认为” 供应中断和劳动力短缺将制约今年美国经济扩张，他们还普遍认为，经济走向将在很大程度上取决于病毒的进程，经济前景面临的风险仍然存在。因此，6月会议在利率和买债等主要货币政策上按兵不动，等待未来更多数据修正官员的判断：\n\n “与会官员指出，重新开放经济的过程史无前例，各行业之间可能不平衡。一些人（some）认为，供应链中断和劳动力短缺使评估委员会目标进展的任务变得复杂，并且这些因素消散的速度不确定。因此，官员认为围绕他们经济预测的不确定性有所增加。\n\n\n 尽管通胀升幅超过预期，但主要被视为反映了暂时因素，与会官员们预计通胀将朝着FOMC委员会2%的长期目标下降。他们认为，当前的货币政策和前瞻指引仍然适合促进最大就业、实现一段时间内平均2%的通胀率，以及长期稳定在2%的通胀预期。\n\n\n 几人（several）强调，围绕经济前景的不确定性升高，现在就劳动力市场和通胀路径得出确切结论还为时过早。在他们看来，经济发展的这种不确定性加剧，也意味着联邦基金利率的适当路径存在重大不确定性。 ”\n\n同时，官员们还讨论了短期融资市场的近期走势，他们普遍支持设置美国国内的常备回购便利工具（SRF），并将疫情期间针对海外和国际货币机构的临时回购协议转变为常备机制。他们普遍希望这些工具在促进货币政策的有效实施，以及确保市场平稳运行方面发挥支持作用，具体设计方案会继续讨论。\n而在货币政策执行方面，官员们承认在两次FOMC会议期间，货币市场利率面临下行压力，近期内这些利率进一步下行的可能性较大。因此他们支持对美联储管理利率作出调整，以帮助联邦基金利率保持在目标范围内。\n美联储在6月上调了作为基准利率走廊上限的超额准备金利率（IOER），和作为走廊下限的隔夜逆回购利率（ON RRP）各5个基点，以打压近期流动性过剩局面。与会官员们“一致认为”，此次技术性调整，与联邦基金利率的适当路径或美联储的货币政策立场无关。\n分析：纪要透露，官员们认为会比预期更早地开始缩减购债规模\n彭博分析称，会议纪要非常清楚地表明，不少联储官员对6月的通胀走势感到紧张，他们也认为会比此前预期更早地开始缩减资产购买规模。几位官员对低利率与房地产市场过热之间的关系评论，可能意味着这一点会越来越多在何时以及多快开始加息的辩论中发挥作用。\n华尔街日报也称，会议纪要显示，鉴于今年经济增长强于预期，美联储官员们承认，可能需要比预期更早地撤回对经济的宽松政策支持。尽管他们强调要对QE计划保持耐心，但也认为债券购买应该提前结束。\n财经媒体CNBC则认为，本次会议纪要对taper这一市场热门话题基本没有贡献，全文只是重申官员们正在“考虑开始讨论taper”（Talking about talking about tapering），几乎没有其他进展。\n路透社注意到，纪要文本中，美联储提到在削减购债速度之前必须“做好充分准备”。尽管纪要没有澄清究竟何时会开始调整购债和利率政策，但确实显示出美联储开始认真讨论此事。贝莱德美洲固收主管Bob Miller称，货币政策调整已经被摆上台面，但美联储存在严重内部分歧。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SSO":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2450,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9098718347,"gmtCreate":1644230021619,"gmtModify":1676533901744,"author":{"id":"4088483890194020","authorId":"4088483890194020","name":"yuilow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7af79272fb44775303405ebf6720a4f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088483890194020","authorIdStr":"4088483890194020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9098718347","repostId":"816042982","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":816042982,"gmtCreate":1630457637246,"gmtModify":1676530307568,"author":{"id":"4088483890194020","authorId":"4088483890194020","name":"yuilow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7af79272fb44775303405ebf6720a4f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088483890194020","authorIdStr":"4088483890194020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/816042982","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155196936,"gmtCreate":1625384062925,"gmtModify":1703741124484,"author":{"id":"4088483890194020","authorId":"4088483890194020","name":"yuilow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7af79272fb44775303405ebf6720a4f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088483890194020","authorIdStr":"4088483890194020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/155196936","repostId":"2148804970","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2148804970","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1625283118,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2148804970?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-03 11:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"OPEC + Production Increase Talks Frozen, What Does It Mean for Oil Prices?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2148804970","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"由于僵局持续，OPEC+周五连续第二天暂停会议。\n此前OPEC+已达成原则性协议，从8月到12月每月增加40万桶/日的产量，到年底达成累计增产200万桶/日。协议还将延长整体OPEC+协议的期限，将减","content":"<p>OPEC + suspended its meeting for the second day in a row on Friday as the stalemate continued.</p><p>Previously, OPEC + had reached an agreement in principle to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day per month from August to December, and reach a cumulative increase of 2 million barrels per day by the end of the year. The agreement will also extend the duration of the overall OPEC + agreement, extending the final deadline for production cuts to December 2022.</p><p>However, the UAE \"turned its face\" at the last minute and demanded an increase in the crude oil baseline on which the country was based when cutting production. The new change will allow it to produce an additional 700,000 barrels per day. The dramatic reversal caused OPEC + to have to postpone its plenary meeting to resolve internal disputes.</p><p><h2>What does the UAE want?</h2>Wall Street News mentioned earlier that the UAE is not opposed to increasing production, but hopes that the new agreement will recognize that its production reduction begins with a higher production benchmark.</p><p>The UAE said it had previously agreed to a very low benchmark figure in good faith, making its production cuts \"disproportionately larger\", and that the UAE would lose even more if the cut agreement did not end as planned in April 2022. So it wants to raise its production benchmark to 3.84 million barrels per day from the current 3.168 million barrels per day,<b>Higher benchmarks mean lower real production cuts, that is, the UAE wants to ramp up production itself to speed up.</b></p><p>The UAE has long laid out ambitious plans to ramp up production and has invested billions in increasing capacity, with the OPEC + cut deal leaving about 30% of its capacity idle. The UAE believes that Azerbaijan, Kuwait, Kazakhstan and Nigeria, among others, have requested and raised production benchmarks since the cut agreement was reached last year, and their own requests should be allowed. Late last year, the UAE threatened to withdraw from OPEC.</p><p>Independent oil analyst Anas Alhajji explained that in terms of data, other oil-producing countries all experienced a decline in production between October 2018 and April 2020, and the UAE's requirement to adjust the production benchmark would create market chaos and invalidate \"the goal of creating stability and clarity in the crude oil market\", which is why Saudi Arabia and Russia strongly oppose the requirement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49c7965ea606512e5231d229cb2835e4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>What impact will this have on oil prices?</h2>The market welcomed the initial agreement of OPEC + as a whole. At present, the market generally expects that the demand for crude oil will increase by 6 million barrels per day compared with the same period of last year, and OPEC +' s current production increase plan will not bring inventory disturbance.</p><p>Due to the uncertain prospect of negotiations, the crude oil market is basically on the wait-and-see attitude at present. Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil both fluctuated slightly on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dc7bb49c2a2f9e3632cb5afdab829aa\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For the requirements of the UAE,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Commodities analyst Giovanni Staunovo pointed out,<b>Any request to adjust production quotas seems to open<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NQC.UK\">Pandora</a>Magic Box, other OPEC + countries may also request similar adjustments.</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">Royal Bank of Canada</a>Analyst Helima Croft believes that the UAE's problems may be resolved through high-level talks between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Considering that there is no progress in the US-Iran nuclear agreement at present, the decision to extend the term of the OPEC + agreement to 2022 will boost the rise of crude oil prices.</p><p>But Croft warned that a breakdown in talks would upend the current upward momentum in oil prices, given the ongoing Covid pandemic.</p><p>There are also certain differences between Saudi Arabia and Russia, the two major oil producers of OPEC +.</p><p>In the run-up to this week's meeting, Russia has insisted on releasing more oil into the market as higher oil prices are encouraging growth in shale production from rival U.S. Saudi Arabia hopes to increase production more cautiously, on the grounds that COVID-19 and its variants bring great uncertainty, and there should be no rush to increase production substantially before evidence of a real recovery in demand is released.</p><p>The UAE's insistence on expanding its own production scale and Russia's eagerness to reach an agreement to increase production are not impossible for the OPEC + production reduction agreement to completely collapse. At that time, all countries can increase production at will, and OPEC + will enter an era of doing its own thing.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>OPEC + Production Increase Talks Frozen, What Does It Mean for Oil Prices?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOPEC + Production Increase Talks Frozen, What Does It Mean for Oil Prices?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 11:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>OPEC + suspended its meeting for the second day in a row on Friday as the stalemate continued.</p><p>Previously, OPEC + had reached an agreement in principle to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day per month from August to December, and reach a cumulative increase of 2 million barrels per day by the end of the year. The agreement will also extend the duration of the overall OPEC + agreement, extending the final deadline for production cuts to December 2022.</p><p>However, the UAE \"turned its face\" at the last minute and demanded an increase in the crude oil baseline on which the country was based when cutting production. The new change will allow it to produce an additional 700,000 barrels per day. The dramatic reversal caused OPEC + to have to postpone its plenary meeting to resolve internal disputes.</p><p><h2>What does the UAE want?</h2>Wall Street News mentioned earlier that the UAE is not opposed to increasing production, but hopes that the new agreement will recognize that its production reduction begins with a higher production benchmark.</p><p>The UAE said it had previously agreed to a very low benchmark figure in good faith, making its production cuts \"disproportionately larger\", and that the UAE would lose even more if the cut agreement did not end as planned in April 2022. So it wants to raise its production benchmark to 3.84 million barrels per day from the current 3.168 million barrels per day,<b>Higher benchmarks mean lower real production cuts, that is, the UAE wants to ramp up production itself to speed up.</b></p><p>The UAE has long laid out ambitious plans to ramp up production and has invested billions in increasing capacity, with the OPEC + cut deal leaving about 30% of its capacity idle. The UAE believes that Azerbaijan, Kuwait, Kazakhstan and Nigeria, among others, have requested and raised production benchmarks since the cut agreement was reached last year, and their own requests should be allowed. Late last year, the UAE threatened to withdraw from OPEC.</p><p>Independent oil analyst Anas Alhajji explained that in terms of data, other oil-producing countries all experienced a decline in production between October 2018 and April 2020, and the UAE's requirement to adjust the production benchmark would create market chaos and invalidate \"the goal of creating stability and clarity in the crude oil market\", which is why Saudi Arabia and Russia strongly oppose the requirement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49c7965ea606512e5231d229cb2835e4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>What impact will this have on oil prices?</h2>The market welcomed the initial agreement of OPEC + as a whole. At present, the market generally expects that the demand for crude oil will increase by 6 million barrels per day compared with the same period of last year, and OPEC +' s current production increase plan will not bring inventory disturbance.</p><p>Due to the uncertain prospect of negotiations, the crude oil market is basically on the wait-and-see attitude at present. Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil both fluctuated slightly on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dc7bb49c2a2f9e3632cb5afdab829aa\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For the requirements of the UAE,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Commodities analyst Giovanni Staunovo pointed out,<b>Any request to adjust production quotas seems to open<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NQC.UK\">Pandora</a>Magic Box, other OPEC + countries may also request similar adjustments.</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">Royal Bank of Canada</a>Analyst Helima Croft believes that the UAE's problems may be resolved through high-level talks between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Considering that there is no progress in the US-Iran nuclear agreement at present, the decision to extend the term of the OPEC + agreement to 2022 will boost the rise of crude oil prices.</p><p>But Croft warned that a breakdown in talks would upend the current upward momentum in oil prices, given the ongoing Covid pandemic.</p><p>There are also certain differences between Saudi Arabia and Russia, the two major oil producers of OPEC +.</p><p>In the run-up to this week's meeting, Russia has insisted on releasing more oil into the market as higher oil prices are encouraging growth in shale production from rival U.S. Saudi Arabia hopes to increase production more cautiously, on the grounds that COVID-19 and its variants bring great uncertainty, and there should be no rush to increase production substantially before evidence of a real recovery in demand is released.</p><p>The UAE's insistence on expanding its own production scale and Russia's eagerness to reach an agreement to increase production are not impossible for the OPEC + production reduction agreement to completely collapse. At that time, all countries can increase production at will, and OPEC + will enter an era of doing its own thing.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634488\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f01e4b782ba393cb7794f7764a5d7d90","relate_stocks":{"SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634488","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2148804970","content_text":"由于僵局持续，OPEC+周五连续第二天暂停会议。\n此前OPEC+已达成原则性协议，从8月到12月每月增加40万桶/日的产量，到年底达成累计增产200万桶/日。协议还将延长整体OPEC+协议的期限，将减产的最终期限延长至2022年12月。\n但阿联酋在最后一刻“翻脸”，要求上调该国减产时依据的原油基线，新的变动将允许其额外生产70万桶/日。这一戏剧性反转导致OPEC+不得不推迟全体会议以解决内部纠纷。\n阿联酋要什么？\n华尔街见闻此前提及，阿联酋并不反对增产，但希望新协议承认其减产开始时依据的产量基准更高。\n阿联酋称该国此前出于善意同意了一个非常低的基准数字，令其减产规模“不成比例地更大”，如果减产协议不能按计划在2022年4月结束，阿联酋的损失将更大。因此它希望将产量基准从当前的316.8万桶/日上调至384万桶/日，较高的基准意味着较低的实际减产量，即阿联酋希望自己增产提速。\n阿联酋早就制定了雄心勃勃的增产计划，并已投资数十亿美元提高产能，OPEC+减产协议使其约30%的产能闲置。阿联酋认为，阿塞拜疆、科威特、哈萨克斯坦和尼日利亚等自去年减产协议达成以来，已经要求并提高了产量基准，自己的请求也应被允许。去年底，阿联酋曾威胁退出OPEC。\n独立石油分析师 Anas Alhajji 解释称，在数据方面，其他产油国在2018年10月至2020年4月期间都经历了产量下降，阿联酋调整产量基准的要求会造成市场混乱，使“创造原油市场稳定和清晰的目标无效”，这也是沙特和俄罗斯极力反对该要求的原因。\n\n这对油价会产生什么影响？\n市场对于OPEC+的最初协议整体持欢迎态度。目前市场普遍预期原油需求较去年同期将增长600万桶/日，OPEC+目前的增产计划不会带来库存方面的扰动。\n由于谈判前景不明，目前原油市场基本持观望态度。布伦特原油及WTI原油周五均小幅震荡。\n\n对于阿联酋的要求，瑞银大宗商品分析师Giovanni Staunovo指出，任何调整生产配额的请求都像是打开了潘多拉魔盒 ，其他OPEC+国家也可能要求进行类似调整。\n加拿大皇家银行分析师Helima Croft认为，阿联酋的问题可能会通过沙特和阿联酋的高层会谈解决。考虑目前美伊核协议目前暂无进展，将OPEC+协议的期限延长至2022年的决定将对原油价格上涨起到助推作用。\n但Croft警告称，考虑到新冠疫情仍在持续，谈判破裂将颠覆油价目前的上涨势头。\nOPEC+两大产油国沙特及俄罗斯也存在一定分歧。\n在本周会议的筹备过程中，俄罗斯坚持向市场释放更多石油，因为油价上涨正鼓励竞争对手美国页岩油产量的增长。而沙特希望更谨慎增产，理由是新冠病毒及变种带来很大的不确定性，在需求切实复苏的证据出炉前不应急着大幅增产。\n阿联酋坚决要求扩大自身增产规模，以及俄罗斯迫切希望达成增产协议等多重因素，令OPEC+减产协议完全破裂也不无可能，那时所有国家都可以随心所欲地增产，OPEC+将进入各行其是的时代。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DDG":0.9,"CLmain":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"DWTIF":0.9,"BZmain":0.9,"DWT":0.9,"USO":0.9,"DUG":0.9,"QMmain":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"SCO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155198611,"gmtCreate":1625383987033,"gmtModify":1703741123333,"author":{"id":"4088483890194020","authorId":"4088483890194020","name":"yuilow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7af79272fb44775303405ebf6720a4f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088483890194020","authorIdStr":"4088483890194020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/155198611","repostId":"1168133884","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168133884","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625021330,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168133884?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 10:48","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: U.S. stocks are closed all day on July 5th due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168133884","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"因美国独立日假期，7月5日（周一）美股休市一日，7月6日（周二）起恢复交易。\n港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n背景简介：\n独立日是美国法定国庆日，日期为每年7月4日，以纪念1776年7月","content":"<p><b>Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, U.S. stocks will be closed for one day on July 5th (Monday), and trading will resume on July 6th (Tuesday).</b></p><p>Hong Kong shares, A shares, British shares, Australian shares and Singapore stock markets traded as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p><b>Independence Day</b>Is the statutory national day of the United States, which is dated on July 4 each year to commemorate the formal adoption of the Declaration of Independence by the Continental Congress in Philadelphia on July 4, 1776. America's Independence Day is as grand as religious and folk festivals. People clean their courtyards, decorate their homes and fly the national flag before the festival.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87ddb03d9b4d56cf0dce9450e742016\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"417\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: U.S. stocks are closed all day on July 5th due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: U.S. stocks are closed all day on July 5th due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-30 10:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, U.S. stocks will be closed for one day on July 5th (Monday), and trading will resume on July 6th (Tuesday).</b></p><p>Hong Kong shares, A shares, British shares, Australian shares and Singapore stock markets traded as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p><b>Independence Day</b>Is the statutory national day of the United States, which is dated on July 4 each year to commemorate the formal adoption of the Declaration of Independence by the Continental Congress in Philadelphia on July 4, 1776. America's Independence Day is as grand as religious and folk festivals. People clean their courtyards, decorate their homes and fly the national flag before the festival.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87ddb03d9b4d56cf0dce9450e742016\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"417\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21dd6adec6b29203b5bca22347419441","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168133884","content_text":"因美国独立日假期，7月5日（周一）美股休市一日，7月6日（周二）起恢复交易。\n港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n背景简介：\n独立日是美国法定国庆日，日期为每年7月4日，以纪念1776年7月4日大陆会议在费城正式通过《独立宣言》。美国的独立日，与宗教、民俗节日一样隆重，老百姓在节日前清洁院落，装饰家居，悬挂国旗。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2608,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}