老八公 personal page - To The Moon

老八公

老八公

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01-12

Good to make sure you're getting

2023-01-17

Lailailaialailai hooood

2022-07-16

wow

The bullwhip effect is reversing! Amazon Prime Day Spending Bash Is Just a Discount Bash

2022-06-08

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2022-09-10

OK

Buffett continues to sweep Occidental Petroleum, and his shareholding ratio has exceeded a quarter

2022-06-04

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2022-03-31

👌

Oil gods, stock gods and wolf kings under soaring oil prices

2022-03-05

👍

Berkshire Hathaway increases its position in Occidental Petroleum

2022-10-08

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2022-05-02

👍

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going","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/260791298887864","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3046,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":260603441127720,"gmtCreate":1704634251424,"gmtModify":1704634255702,"author":{"id":"4087300025751020","authorId":"4087300025751020","name":"老八公","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27256ede8324832365cde987fa4cf48","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087300025751020","authorIdStr":"4087300025751020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good luck to you and your family and your friends&nbsp;","listText":"Good luck to you and your family and your friends&nbsp;","text":"Good luck to you and your family and your 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hooood","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":22,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9956866334","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":873,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9072129096,"gmtCreate":1657986915415,"gmtModify":1676536090958,"author":{"id":"4087300025751020","authorId":"4087300025751020","name":"老八公","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27256ede8324832365cde987fa4cf48","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087300025751020","authorIdStr":"4087300025751020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9072129096","repostId":"2251745455","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2251745455","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1657935455,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2251745455?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-16 09:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The bullwhip effect is reversing! Amazon Prime Day Spending Bash Is Just a Discount Bash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2251745455","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"亚马逊为期两日的Prime Day成为2022年迄今为止美国最大的网络购物日，鉴于其消费提振基于其巨大折扣，分析认为牛鞭效应正在反转。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>A two-day (July 12 to July 13) \"Double Eleven\" belonging to the American people<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Prime Day came to an end this week, and \"explosive\" consumption seems to have overturned the previous market concerns about the \"collapse\" of American consumer confidence.</p><p>Global e-commerce giant Amazon said on Thursday that its members at this year's Prime Day event<b>More than 300 million purchases, totaling $11.9 billion, made it the largest Prime Day event in the company's history</b>。 During the event, sales growth among Amazon store sales partners outpaced the company's retail business, with customers purchasing more than 100 million small business items and spending more than $3 billion in sweepstakes contests.</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>Adobe Digital Economy Index, Amazon's Prime Day first-day sales reached $6 billion, up 7.8% from last year, making it the largest online shopping day in the United States so far in 2022. The next day's sales reached $5.9 billion,<b>Two-day sales increased 8.5% year-on-year</b>。</p><p>However,<b>Selling more does not mean selling well, nor can it be directly linked to the revival of consumer confidence</b>。 According to the statistics of Numerator, a market research company, based on the first day, most of the goods sold this time are consumer goods, and the best-selling products include diapers, beauty products, etc. 57% of consumers buy goods for less than $20, and only 5% of consumers buy goods for more than $100.</p><p>Citibank analysis believes that,<b>This consumer buying frenzy is mainly due to unprecedented discounts on Amazon's platform</b>。 For example, the Amazon Fire TV 50-inch 4K TV is as low as 2.1% off this time, and the accommodation campus daily necessities for the September school season are also greatly discounted. As the bullwhip effect reverses, Outlets, which has a heavy discount, will also take a hit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f321b1cabbe22304e2447577e3f63877\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The so-called \"bullwhip effect\" refers to a phenomenon of demand variation amplification in the supply chain, which makes it impossible to effectively share information when the information flow is transmitted from the final client to the original supplier, which makes the information distorted and amplified step by step, resulting in increasing fluctuations in demand information. The amplification effect of this information distortion is graphically like a thrown bullwhip, so it is vividly called bullwhip effect.</p><p>Previously, when American consumers were immersed in the \"unprecedented\" discount season, when those tight goods during the period of supply chain chaos were arbitrarily selected, correspondingly, American retailers were facing the worst \"inventory crisis\" since the bursting of the Internet bubble.</p><p>An earlier article on Wall Street mentioned that the \"bullwhip effect\" in the U.S. retail industry is coming to an end, and excess inventory forces U.S. importers to reduce overseas orders, thus lowering shipping costs, which may eventually lead to a recession in the freight industry. Retail giants Target and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>It is pointed out that the total import of consumer goods in the United States fell by about $1.5 billion in May, indicating that the demand for overseas products is declining and consumer spending on durable goods has decreased significantly.</p><p>According to Michael Burry, the \"big short prototype\", the previous oversupply in the retail industry formed a \"bullwhip effect\", and as demand slows down, the \"bullwhip effect\" comes to an end and will trigger deflation later this year, prompting the Federal Reserve to reverse the path of tightening and even restart easing.</p><p>Furthermore,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Economist Aditya Bhave previously analyzed Independence Day holiday spending data in early July. As measured by credit and debit cards aggregated by BAC, there was only a small \"holiday shock\" in spending in the two weeks to July 9. A year-on-year increase of 3.5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da5f7fd821414fc025fcffe186e98d87\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Considering that the inflation rate in the United States is as high as 9.1%, this year's \"holiday shock\" of spending is smaller than in the previous three years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b334062cdb2173db97c80ea8d64c280\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bank of America's previous view was that actual economic activity is slowing down, and the United States will start a mild recession in the second half of 2022. It will end sooner than expected.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The bullwhip effect is reversing! Amazon Prime Day Spending Bash Is Just a Discount Bash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe bullwhip effect is reversing! Amazon Prime Day Spending Bash Is Just a Discount Bash\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-16 09:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>A two-day (July 12 to July 13) \"Double Eleven\" belonging to the American people<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Prime Day came to an end this week, and \"explosive\" consumption seems to have overturned the previous market concerns about the \"collapse\" of American consumer confidence.</p><p>Global e-commerce giant Amazon said on Thursday that its members at this year's Prime Day event<b>More than 300 million purchases, totaling $11.9 billion, made it the largest Prime Day event in the company's history</b>。 During the event, sales growth among Amazon store sales partners outpaced the company's retail business, with customers purchasing more than 100 million small business items and spending more than $3 billion in sweepstakes contests.</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>Adobe Digital Economy Index, Amazon's Prime Day first-day sales reached $6 billion, up 7.8% from last year, making it the largest online shopping day in the United States so far in 2022. The next day's sales reached $5.9 billion,<b>Two-day sales increased 8.5% year-on-year</b>。</p><p>However,<b>Selling more does not mean selling well, nor can it be directly linked to the revival of consumer confidence</b>。 According to the statistics of Numerator, a market research company, based on the first day, most of the goods sold this time are consumer goods, and the best-selling products include diapers, beauty products, etc. 57% of consumers buy goods for less than $20, and only 5% of consumers buy goods for more than $100.</p><p>Citibank analysis believes that,<b>This consumer buying frenzy is mainly due to unprecedented discounts on Amazon's platform</b>。 For example, the Amazon Fire TV 50-inch 4K TV is as low as 2.1% off this time, and the accommodation campus daily necessities for the September school season are also greatly discounted. As the bullwhip effect reverses, Outlets, which has a heavy discount, will also take a hit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f321b1cabbe22304e2447577e3f63877\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The so-called \"bullwhip effect\" refers to a phenomenon of demand variation amplification in the supply chain, which makes it impossible to effectively share information when the information flow is transmitted from the final client to the original supplier, which makes the information distorted and amplified step by step, resulting in increasing fluctuations in demand information. The amplification effect of this information distortion is graphically like a thrown bullwhip, so it is vividly called bullwhip effect.</p><p>Previously, when American consumers were immersed in the \"unprecedented\" discount season, when those tight goods during the period of supply chain chaos were arbitrarily selected, correspondingly, American retailers were facing the worst \"inventory crisis\" since the bursting of the Internet bubble.</p><p>An earlier article on Wall Street mentioned that the \"bullwhip effect\" in the U.S. retail industry is coming to an end, and excess inventory forces U.S. importers to reduce overseas orders, thus lowering shipping costs, which may eventually lead to a recession in the freight industry. Retail giants Target and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>It is pointed out that the total import of consumer goods in the United States fell by about $1.5 billion in May, indicating that the demand for overseas products is declining and consumer spending on durable goods has decreased significantly.</p><p>According to Michael Burry, the \"big short prototype\", the previous oversupply in the retail industry formed a \"bullwhip effect\", and as demand slows down, the \"bullwhip effect\" comes to an end and will trigger deflation later this year, prompting the Federal Reserve to reverse the path of tightening and even restart easing.</p><p>Furthermore,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Economist Aditya Bhave previously analyzed Independence Day holiday spending data in early July. As measured by credit and debit cards aggregated by BAC, there was only a small \"holiday shock\" in spending in the two weeks to July 9. A year-on-year increase of 3.5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da5f7fd821414fc025fcffe186e98d87\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Considering that the inflation rate in the United States is as high as 9.1%, this year's \"holiday shock\" of spending is smaller than in the previous three years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b334062cdb2173db97c80ea8d64c280\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bank of America's previous view was that actual economic activity is slowing down, and the United States will start a mild recession in the second half of 2022. It will end sooner than expected.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664944\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09dcab47335b8ae75b1a72cadf884fc8","relate_stocks":{"BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","AMZN":"亚马逊","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4538":"云计算","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4566":"资本集团"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664944","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2251745455","content_text":"为期两日（7月12日至7月13日）、属于美国人民的“双十一”亚马逊Prime Day本周落下帷幕，“爆炸式”消费似乎推翻了此前市场担忧的美国消费者信心“崩塌”。全球电商巨头亚马逊周四表示，在今年的Prime Day活动中其会员购买了超过3亿件商品，共计119亿美元的战绩使其成为该公司历史上最大的Prime Day活动。活动期间，亚马逊商店销售合作伙伴的销售额增长超过了该公司的零售业务，顾客在抽奖比赛中购买了超过1亿件小企业商品，花费超过30亿美元。据Adobe数字经济指数(Adobe Digital Economy Index)，亚马逊Prime Day首日销售额达60亿美元，较去年增长7.8%，成为2022年迄今为止美国最大的网络购物日。次日销售额达59亿美元，两日销售额同比增长8.5%。不过，卖的多并不意味着卖的好，也不能直接与消费信心重振所挂钩。市场研究公司Numerator的基于首日的统计数据也显示，此次卖出商品类别以日用消费品居多，最畅销的产品包括尿布、美容产品等等，有57%的消费者购买的商品售价低于20美元，只有5%的消费者购买的售价超过100美元。花旗银行分析认为，此次消费者购买狂潮主要得益于亚马逊平台前所未有的折扣。比如亚马逊Fire TV 50英寸4K电视此次低至2.1折，而针对9月开学季的住宿校园生活用品也大打折扣。随着牛鞭效应的逆转，折扣较大的奥特莱斯也会受到冲击。所谓“牛鞭效应”，指供应链上的一种需求变异放大现象，使信息流从最终客户端向原始供应商端传递时，无法有效地实现信息共享，使得信息扭曲而逐级放大，导致了需求信息出现越来越大的波动，此信息扭曲的放大作用在图形上很像一个甩起的牛鞭，因此被形象地称为牛鞭效应。此前，当美国消费者沉浸在“前所未有”的折扣季中时，当那些供应链混乱时期的紧俏商品被任意挑选时，相对应的，是美国零售商正在面临自互联网泡沫破灭以来最严重的“库存危机”。华尔街见闻稍早前文章提及，美国零售业“牛鞭效应”正接近尾声，库存过剩迫使美国进口商减少海外订单，从而压低海运费用，最终可能导致货运业衰退。零售巨头Target和沃尔玛指出，5月美国消费品进口总额下降了约15亿美元，表明海外产品的需求正在下降，消费者耐用品方面支出大幅减少。按照“大空头原型”Michael Burry的说法，零售业此前的供给过剩形成了“牛鞭效应”，而随着需求放缓，“牛鞭效应”迎来终结，并将在今年晚些时候引发通货紧缩，促使美联储逆转紧缩之路，甚至重启宽松。此外，美国银行经济学家Aditya Bhave此前对7月初独立日假日消费数据进行了分析，按照BAC汇总的信用卡和借记卡衡量，在截至7月9日的两周内，支出只有一个小幅的\"节日冲击\"，同比增长3.5%。考虑到美国目前已经高达9.1%的通胀率，今年支出的\"节日冲击\"比前三年都要小。美银此前的观点是，实际的经济活动正在放缓，美国将于2022年下半年启动温和衰退，将年末标普500指数目标点位从之前的4500点下调至3600点，同时还预测美联储的QT将比预期更快结束。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":864,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9051249423,"gmtCreate":1654703421362,"gmtModify":1676535495496,"author":{"id":"4087300025751020","authorId":"4087300025751020","name":"老八公","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27256ede8324832365cde987fa4cf48","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087300025751020","authorIdStr":"4087300025751020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9051249423","repostId":"1135397463","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":680,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9936475251,"gmtCreate":1662818479973,"gmtModify":1676537145733,"author":{"id":"4087300025751020","authorId":"4087300025751020","name":"老八公","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27256ede8324832365cde987fa4cf48","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087300025751020","authorIdStr":"4087300025751020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9936475251","repostId":"1131057403","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131057403","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662764868,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131057403?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-10 07:07","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Buffett continues to sweep Occidental Petroleum, and his shareholding ratio has exceeded a quarter","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131057403","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"据9月9日周五公布的一份监管文件显示，巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司购买了更多西方石油公司的股票，将其持有的已发行股票比例增至26.8%。据9月9日周五公布的一份监管文件显示，巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司购","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>According to a regulatory filing released on Friday, September 9, Buffett's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway Bought More<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>The company's shares, increasing its holdings of outstanding shares to 26.8%. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway bought more shares of Occidental Petroleum, increasing its holdings of outstanding shares to 26.8%, according to a regulatory filing released on Friday, Sept. 9.</p><p>Last month, Berkshire held a 20.2% stake in Occidental.</p><p>Although oil prices have fallen recently, they once hit a 14-year high. As of Friday's close, Occidental Petroleum's share price has risen by more than 110% this year. Occidental Petroleum's shares closed up 1.58% at $65.61 on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fe8fbc1c7ec08f303ce37ef52afec92\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Buffett's increasing stake in Occidental Petroleum has sparked speculation that Buffett may consider bidding for the entire company. Some media reported last month, citing people familiar with the matter, that Buffett would not bid even after receiving regulatory approval to buy a 50% stake in the oil company.</p><p>Why does Buffett favor Occidental Petroleum?</p><p>First, inflation appeared to be the megatrend in the first half of the 2020s, and crude oil is one of the best natural hedges against inflation right now. Geopolitical conflicts and a lack of investment in new oil fields over the past five years have hit crude oil supplies, causing oil production conditions for everything from OPEC to U.S. shale oil to stagnate. Meanwhile, market demand for fossil fuels has been strong due to factors such as the pandemic, despite governments' push to shift to clean energy. Therefore, while with the transition from utilities to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">Solar energy</a>And other investments in the energy sector, Buffett claims to be a realist in the debate around fossil fuels.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buffett continues to sweep Occidental Petroleum, and his shareholding ratio has exceeded a quarter</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuffett continues to sweep Occidental Petroleum, and his shareholding ratio has exceeded a quarter\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-10 07:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>According to a regulatory filing released on Friday, September 9, Buffett's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway Bought More<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>The company's shares, increasing its holdings of outstanding shares to 26.8%. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway bought more shares of Occidental Petroleum, increasing its holdings of outstanding shares to 26.8%, according to a regulatory filing released on Friday, Sept. 9.</p><p>Last month, Berkshire held a 20.2% stake in Occidental.</p><p>Although oil prices have fallen recently, they once hit a 14-year high. As of Friday's close, Occidental Petroleum's share price has risen by more than 110% this year. Occidental Petroleum's shares closed up 1.58% at $65.61 on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fe8fbc1c7ec08f303ce37ef52afec92\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Buffett's increasing stake in Occidental Petroleum has sparked speculation that Buffett may consider bidding for the entire company. Some media reported last month, citing people familiar with the matter, that Buffett would not bid even after receiving regulatory approval to buy a 50% stake in the oil company.</p><p>Why does Buffett favor Occidental Petroleum?</p><p>First, inflation appeared to be the megatrend in the first half of the 2020s, and crude oil is one of the best natural hedges against inflation right now. Geopolitical conflicts and a lack of investment in new oil fields over the past five years have hit crude oil supplies, causing oil production conditions for everything from OPEC to U.S. shale oil to stagnate. Meanwhile, market demand for fossil fuels has been strong due to factors such as the pandemic, despite governments' push to shift to clean energy. Therefore, while with the transition from utilities to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">Solar energy</a>And other investments in the energy sector, Buffett claims to be a realist in the debate around fossil fuels.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670025\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e152604a758586cf70e9ccdd654d17d","relate_stocks":{"BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4176":"多领域控股","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","OXY":"西方石油","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4201":"综合性石油与天然气企业","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670025","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131057403","content_text":"据9月9日周五公布的一份监管文件显示，巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司购买了更多西方石油公司的股票，将其持有的已发行股票比例增至26.8%。据9月9日周五公布的一份监管文件显示，巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司购买了更多西方石油公司的股票，将其持有的已发行股票比例增至26.8%。上个月，伯克希尔哈撒韦持有西方石油20.2%的股份。尽管最近油价有所回落，但此前一度触及十四年高位，截至周五收盘，今年以来西方石油股价已经累计上涨了超过110%。西方石油的股价周五收涨1.58%，报65.61美元。巴菲特对西方石油的股权不断增加，引发外界猜测巴菲特可能会考虑竞购整个公司。 有媒体上个月援引知情人士的话报道称，即使在获得监管机构批准购买该石油公司50%的股份后，巴菲特也不会出价。为什么巴菲特青睐西方石油公司呢？首先，在2020年代的上半部分，通货膨胀似乎是大趋势，而原油是目前最好的天然对冲通胀的工具之一。由于地缘冲突以及过去五年缺乏对新油田的投资已经打击了原油的供应，导致从OPEC到美国页岩油的所有石油生产状况都停滞不前。与此同时，尽管各国政府推动转向清洁能源，但由于疫情等因素，市场对化石燃料的需求一直很强劲。因此，虽然随着从公用事业到太阳能等能源领域的投资，巴菲特声称自己是围绕化石燃料辩论的现实主义者。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"OXY":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":711,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059366330,"gmtCreate":1654304677120,"gmtModify":1676535427690,"author":{"id":"4087300025751020","authorId":"4087300025751020","name":"老八公","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27256ede8324832365cde987fa4cf48","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087300025751020","authorIdStr":"4087300025751020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059366330","repostId":"1154917667","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":369,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9013243084,"gmtCreate":1648738627869,"gmtModify":1676534389099,"author":{"id":"4087300025751020","authorId":"4087300025751020","name":"老八公","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27256ede8324832365cde987fa4cf48","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087300025751020","authorIdStr":"4087300025751020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9013243084","repostId":"1109157751","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109157751","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648692694,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109157751?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-31 10:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Oil gods, stock gods and wolf kings under soaring oil prices","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109157751","media":"远川投资评论","summary":"石油还是同样的石油，只是一千个基金经理眼中有一千种投资价值判断。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Another round of oil price adjustment is coming on March 31.</p><p>Previously, domestic oil prices have risen for five consecutive days due to the surge in crude oil. At the beginning of March, it was only four consecutive rises. \"92-octane gasoline is filled, and the debt is full; 95-octane gasoline is filled, and everything is lost; 98-octane gasoline is filled, and three generations of repayment!\" Before I could finish my fate of swiping the screen in the circle of friends, 95-octane gasoline officially entered the \"9 yuan era\" in the fifth round of rise.</p><p>At the moment, electric vehicle owners may be glad to buy early and enjoy it early, but if they don't buy it, they have to refuel. But it was the hedge funds that bet on rising oil prices that really made a big bargain.</p><p>U.S. foreign exchange hedge fund CFM's fund, which tracks the market signal index, has risen 15% this year, betting that rising energy prices have contributed most of its gains; The Diversified fund owned by London hedge fund Aspect Capital has risen 9% this year, mainly due to the rise in long oil and related commodity prices.</p><p>Among them, the most excited one is Pierre Andurand, the \"God of Crude Oil Trading\". According to the Financial Times, the Andurand Commodities Discretionary Enhanced Fund he manages has earned 109% in just two months. Also betting on soaring oil prices are \"Stock God\" Buffett and \"Wall Street Wolf King\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IKAN\">Icahn</a>。 This pair of sworn enemies who always meet on the narrow road, one is still against each other<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>The latter had already earned 1 billion and sold off the market.</p><p>Two years ago, the price of WTI crude oil futures in May fell to a minimum of-US $37.63/barrel. The panic caused by negative oil prices is still fresh in my memory. The backhand oil price has broken through the high of eight years ago, exceeding US $100/barrel.</p><p>So, in this epic diamond bottom rebound, who is the sharpest one?</p><p><b>01. Oil God Anduran: The war is in full swing</b></p><p>This time, Anduran was right again.</p><p>Just over two months have passed in 2022, and the Commodity Free Trading Enhancement Fund managed by Pierre Andurand, the \"God of Crude Oil Trading\", has risen 109% due to a bet on soaring oil prices. In an interview with Bloomberg on March 24, Anduran was still bullish on oil prices, believing that it would even hit $200 by the end of this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f68e42d61df008e14b35612c7ca1d42\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Anduran believes crude oil will rise to $200 a barrel is just around the corner, Bloomberg</p><p>Before 2020, Anduran had already shown his talents. He made a huge profit of nearly $300 million by shorting \"negative oil prices\". In February, when Anduran was aggressively bearish on oil prices, people at that time might not have believed that the oil price of $55 would become negative, but Anduran, who spent ten hours a day studying virus data, firmly believed that once the epidemic broke out, a large number of blockade areas would appear all over the world, which would lead to a sharp drop in demand for crude oil and a sharp drop in oil prices [3]. Sure enough, two months later, the oil price fell to-$40, and Anduran's prediction was verified.</p><p>Speaking of it, the person who won such a big victory last time he lifted oil alone was still Anduran.</p><p>The head of Andurand Capital Management, the world's largest crude oil hedge fund, became famous as early as the 2008 financial crisis for accurately predicting the plunge in oil prices. At that time, he earned 210% of the returns.</p><p>However, at that time, the hedge fund founded by Anduran was still called Blue Glod, and before he was truly named the \"Oil God\", there was still a detour to go.</p><p>In 2007, at the age of 30, Anduran left Vitol, the world's largest oil trader, and set up his own hedge fund company. When he was in Vitol Group, he was called \"one of the most profitable traders\". However, Anduran, who was unruly and loves freedom by nature, left Vitol and became his own boss.</p><p>Anduran began to become famous in the second year after founding the company, but the start was too smooth, which may not be a good thing. After Anduran's entrepreneurial journey became a blockbuster in 2008, it began to show a decline of \"opening high and going low\". In the next three years or so, the funds he managed fell all the way, and the income turned from positive to negative until April 2012, Blue Glod, which had no improvement, had to close its doors to thank customers.</p><p>Failure didn't depress Anduran. After only eight months, he chose to gamble his name again. In February 2013, he surfaced into the hedge fund world and founded Andurand Capital Management. He unabashedly named directly after his own name, showing greater determination than the last time.</p><p>And Anduran didn't disappoint investors who believed in him again. In 2014, Anduran gained a 38% yield by betting on the plunge in oil prices. In 2016, he gained a 22% yield by betting on the rebound in oil prices, wiping out the fluctuations of oil.</p><p>Anduran, who is extremely talented in crude oil trading, can often make a lot of money in the violent fluctuations of oil prices. Because of this, many people only regard him as a \"lucky man of the times\", a \"bold maniac\" who can succeed in oil and lose oil. After all, who can always predict things like God?</p><p>Anduran, however, thinks otherwise. He said that he was not a \"trade addict\" and never blindly made heavy bets. Every \"big move\" has undergone in-depth research and rigorous analysis. And Anduran's \"grasping the big and letting go of the small\", going deep into the contradiction between supply and demand of a variety of crude oil and the conversion between long and short, has indeed earned rich returns for his investors-since 2008, the cumulative income of funds managed by Anduran has increased nearly tenfold.</p><p>And this time, the heavy bet on the soaring oil price is just a reappearance of Anduran's \"betting\" trading style. He just did what he has always been best at in the circle of competence.</p><p><b>02. Warren Buffett: Comeback</b></p><p>Compared with Anduran's easy acquisition, Buffett's investment in oil is a little bumpy.</p><p>According to the data, Buffett began to re-build his position in Occidental Petroleum on March 1 this year, and increased his position twice in a row on March 4 and March 11, buying Occidental Petroleum as his ninth largest holding. The purchase cost ranged from $46.76 to $56.60 per share. As of March 21, Occidental Petroleum's share price had risen to $60.96, up 30% from Buffett's first purchase.</p><p>The reason why he said to re-open the position is mainly because he had fallen before. Judging from Buffett's historical holdings in Occidental Petroleum, his previous operations on this stock can be described as \"sold before dawn and bought after the price increase.\" So far, it is difficult for Buffett to say that he has made a lot of money in Occidental Petroleum.</p><p>As early as 2019, Occidental Petroleum wanted to acquire<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APC\">Anadarko Oil</a>The company (Anadarko Petroleum) raised funds from Buffett in the form of preferred shares. In addition to paying an annual Dividend of 8%, it also came with call options for common stocks, and the strike price was $62.5. In other words, in addition to paying dividends to Buffett, Occidental Petroleum will also repay part of his common stock. It can be seen from the changes in Buffett's positions in 2019 that he did increase his holdings of Occidental Petroleum.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bbbc39c687e488620cf82d09e84d818\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"659\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, what Buffett, who is full of confidence, is waiting for is the black swan of the epidemic, which caused oil prices to plummet in 2020. At that time, Occidental Petroleum was in a financial crisis due to the acquisition of Anadarko Petroleum, and its stock price fell from more than 40 US dollars at the beginning of the year to 8.8 US dollars at the end of the first quarter. Faced with such a situation, Buffett had no choice but to sell Occidental Petroleum's shares. By the second quarter of 2020, Occidental Petroleum was no longer in Buffett's holdings.</p><p>Regarding this failed investment, Buffett said in an interview that he did misjudge the trend of oil prices.</p><p>Slightly surprisingly, more than a year later, Buffett rebought Occidental Petroleum, which was originally sold for about $15, at a price of about $50, and quickly admitted his mistake.</p><p>Buffett, who has always been known for his value investing and is committed to finding good business, does not prefer the energy industry with strong cycles and high beta. As a typical cyclical stock, why does Occidental Petroleum appear in Buffett's holdings many times?</p><p>According to his past investment experience, the consumption-like logic of stable value-added may be the main reason why Buffett invests in cyclical stocks [5]. Specifically, Occidental Petroleum has a stable competitive landscape and high Dividend payments.</p><p>As the fourth largest oil and gas company in the United States, Occidental Petroleum has experienced large-scale mergers and acquisitions in the U.S. shale oil industry, and the industry competition landscape has stabilized. At the same time, Occidental Petroleum has maintained stable Dividend payments even during the financial crisis and shale revolution. Currently, with the rise in oil prices, Occidental Petroleum's financial situation has also been repaired, which can provide stable financial support for Dividend payments.</p><p>In fact, Buffett has long \"taken a fancy\" to Occidental Petroleum, and the purchase of preferred shares in 2019 is the best proof. It's just that the drastic changes in the external environment in 2020 have caused Buffett to do some operations that seem unwise now, and to stop excessive losses. But what he lost in 2020 was only the money from the decline of common stocks, and Buffett still enjoyed preferred shares's dividends.</p><p>Now that oil prices are rising, Buffett once again sees the opportunity to buy Occidental Petroleum. Even if he pays a higher cost than before, the \"stock god\" is still willing to make a comeback.</p><p><b>03. Icahn, the Wolf King: Take it as soon as you see it</b></p><p>Just as Buffett, the \"stock god\", increased his position in Occidental Petroleum, on the other hand, Icahn, the \"Wolf King of Wall Street\", had sold all the remaining shares of Occidental Petroleum and earned $1 billion.</p><p>Born in 1936 in Queens, New York, Icahn was called \"the most successful speculator on the planet\" by Fortune. After dropping out of new york University, this Jew joined the military camp, where he was a well-known poker master. After retiring from the army, Icahn became a stockbroker and began his investment career as the \"Wolf of Wall Street\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/168b96e5d53577b54ee92ffaca60d1a8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Close-up of Icahn, Image Credit : Icahn: The Restless Billionaire, HBO</p><p>Since he first entered the stock exchange in 1961, Icahn has led numerous \"hostile takeovers\". He often bought a large number of stocks of optimistic companies, became a strategic shareholder of the company and interfered with the company's management decisions, prompting the stock price to rise rapidly in a short period of time.</p><p>To some extent, Icahn is Buffett's \"enemy\" from the root of his investment philosophy. Icahn doesn't care about the development of enterprises. Instead of accompanying the growth of enterprises as Buffett said, he only wants to make profits by buying and selling stocks.</p><p>In 1985, Icahn, who was optimistic about the oil industry, was ready to buy Philip Oil Company. At this time, another consortium offered a higher purchase price to \"cut off\" Philip, and Icahn, who was bound to win, also increased his horsepower to raise the price, but the other party still refused to give up, and even further raised the price, pressing Icahn step by step. After many times, Icahn suddenly sold all his shares and made hundreds of millions of dollars in this round of \"pushing up\".</p><p>And his investment in the stock of Occidental Petroleum also showed his true qualities as a \"wolf king\".</p><p>Back in 2019, Icahn and Buffett both had a rare stake in Occidental Petroleum at the same time, but when Occidental wanted to buy Anadarko Petroleum, the two disagreed.</p><p>Because the acquisition requires a large and expensive sum of capital ($10 billion), it has to be financed by debt, which Icahn objected to. Vicki Hollub, CEO of Occidental Petroleum, insisted on the deal, eventually raising money from Buffett in the way of preferred shares, promising an 8% annual Dividend with equity call options.</p><p>Icahn was very dissatisfied with Holub's approach. He believed that this move not only \"cheaper\" Buffett, but also completely unbeneficial to Occidental Petroleum.</p><p>Not long after, in March 2020, Occidental Petroleum, which was heavily indebted, was affected by the plunge in oil prices, and its stock price fell all the way. Buffett liquidated Occidental Petroleum. This situation made Icahn furious and turned out old scores again-if Holub hadn't insisted on going his own way and Buffett had \"helped the others\", why would Occidental Petroleum have fallen to this point?</p><p>It's useless to be angry. In order to remove Holub, this \"wolf king\" has been increasing his voice in Occidental Petroleum. In just a few months, he increased his shareholding ratio from 2.5% to 10% [14]. Although his recall plan ended in a settlement agreement, objectively Icahn also successfully bought a lot of chips at the low stock price.</p><p>Now, Occidental Petroleum has finally ushered in a soaring stock price. This speculator who \"doesn't care about the development of the enterprise, but only wants to make a profit by buying and selling stocks\" has also taken advantage of the trend to liquidate this stock recently and cash in on the gains.</p><p>Icahn's arbitrage departure at this time is not so much bearish on oil prices as finally retaliating against Occidental Petroleum for failing him.</p><p>Icahn after clearance, just like those who block you and still notify you<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">Weibo</a>Like netizens, I stated in a letter to the board of directors of Occidental Petroleum on March 6 that I have cleared my position, and the two representatives assigned to the board of directors due to the settlement agreement in 2020 will also resign and leave.</p><p>Anyway, for Icahn, there are many ways to express his views on oil prices. According to the Wall Street Journal, Icahn still holds about $500 million worth of Occidental Petroleum warrants. Besides, he also holds shares in other energy companies, such as Cheniere Energy (LNG), the largest producer of liquefied natural gas, and oil refiners<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVI\">CVR Energy</a>Corporation (CVI).</p><p>In short, Icahn, who wanted to interfere with the company's strategic decision-making by holding shares in Occidental Petroleum two years ago, didn't get what he wanted. Now, when the stock price rose, Buffett, who was \"not seeking each other\", ran into the market again. Icahn, who made a profit of 1 billion, decided to say goodbye to each other \"with the fruits of victory\", which is reasonable.</p><p>It can be said that if you don't leave at this time, when will you wait?</p><p><b>04. Epilogue</b></p><p>Oil is still the same oil, but there are a thousand investment value judgments in the eyes of a thousand fund managers.</p><p>In the first half of the game, \"Oil God\" Anduran was in full swing, \"Wolf King\" Icahn achieved fruitful results, and \"Stock God\" Buffett returned to the battlefield. One of them is a crude oil trading master who has won many battles, and the other pair is an old rival who has accumulated deep grievances against Western Petroleum. Betting, trading, holding, which one is higher and which one is lower, I'm afraid I have to extend my eyes to the second half.</p><p>After all, who can have the last laugh and not be eaten by beta in the end is the ultimate test of cyclical products for all investors.</p><p>Will oil prices continue to rise? No one knows the definitive answer. However, compared with oil, people in a relatively static closed loop may want to know more how much will the price of vegetables rise?</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1583835599575","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Oil gods, stock gods and wolf kings under soaring oil prices</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOil gods, stock gods and wolf kings under soaring oil prices\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">远川投资评论</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-31 10:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Another round of oil price adjustment is coming on March 31.</p><p>Previously, domestic oil prices have risen for five consecutive days due to the surge in crude oil. At the beginning of March, it was only four consecutive rises. \"92-octane gasoline is filled, and the debt is full; 95-octane gasoline is filled, and everything is lost; 98-octane gasoline is filled, and three generations of repayment!\" Before I could finish my fate of swiping the screen in the circle of friends, 95-octane gasoline officially entered the \"9 yuan era\" in the fifth round of rise.</p><p>At the moment, electric vehicle owners may be glad to buy early and enjoy it early, but if they don't buy it, they have to refuel. But it was the hedge funds that bet on rising oil prices that really made a big bargain.</p><p>U.S. foreign exchange hedge fund CFM's fund, which tracks the market signal index, has risen 15% this year, betting that rising energy prices have contributed most of its gains; The Diversified fund owned by London hedge fund Aspect Capital has risen 9% this year, mainly due to the rise in long oil and related commodity prices.</p><p>Among them, the most excited one is Pierre Andurand, the \"God of Crude Oil Trading\". According to the Financial Times, the Andurand Commodities Discretionary Enhanced Fund he manages has earned 109% in just two months. Also betting on soaring oil prices are \"Stock God\" Buffett and \"Wall Street Wolf King\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IKAN\">Icahn</a>。 This pair of sworn enemies who always meet on the narrow road, one is still against each other<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>The latter had already earned 1 billion and sold off the market.</p><p>Two years ago, the price of WTI crude oil futures in May fell to a minimum of-US $37.63/barrel. The panic caused by negative oil prices is still fresh in my memory. The backhand oil price has broken through the high of eight years ago, exceeding US $100/barrel.</p><p>So, in this epic diamond bottom rebound, who is the sharpest one?</p><p><b>01. Oil God Anduran: The war is in full swing</b></p><p>This time, Anduran was right again.</p><p>Just over two months have passed in 2022, and the Commodity Free Trading Enhancement Fund managed by Pierre Andurand, the \"God of Crude Oil Trading\", has risen 109% due to a bet on soaring oil prices. In an interview with Bloomberg on March 24, Anduran was still bullish on oil prices, believing that it would even hit $200 by the end of this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f68e42d61df008e14b35612c7ca1d42\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Anduran believes crude oil will rise to $200 a barrel is just around the corner, Bloomberg</p><p>Before 2020, Anduran had already shown his talents. He made a huge profit of nearly $300 million by shorting \"negative oil prices\". In February, when Anduran was aggressively bearish on oil prices, people at that time might not have believed that the oil price of $55 would become negative, but Anduran, who spent ten hours a day studying virus data, firmly believed that once the epidemic broke out, a large number of blockade areas would appear all over the world, which would lead to a sharp drop in demand for crude oil and a sharp drop in oil prices [3]. Sure enough, two months later, the oil price fell to-$40, and Anduran's prediction was verified.</p><p>Speaking of it, the person who won such a big victory last time he lifted oil alone was still Anduran.</p><p>The head of Andurand Capital Management, the world's largest crude oil hedge fund, became famous as early as the 2008 financial crisis for accurately predicting the plunge in oil prices. At that time, he earned 210% of the returns.</p><p>However, at that time, the hedge fund founded by Anduran was still called Blue Glod, and before he was truly named the \"Oil God\", there was still a detour to go.</p><p>In 2007, at the age of 30, Anduran left Vitol, the world's largest oil trader, and set up his own hedge fund company. When he was in Vitol Group, he was called \"one of the most profitable traders\". However, Anduran, who was unruly and loves freedom by nature, left Vitol and became his own boss.</p><p>Anduran began to become famous in the second year after founding the company, but the start was too smooth, which may not be a good thing. After Anduran's entrepreneurial journey became a blockbuster in 2008, it began to show a decline of \"opening high and going low\". In the next three years or so, the funds he managed fell all the way, and the income turned from positive to negative until April 2012, Blue Glod, which had no improvement, had to close its doors to thank customers.</p><p>Failure didn't depress Anduran. After only eight months, he chose to gamble his name again. In February 2013, he surfaced into the hedge fund world and founded Andurand Capital Management. He unabashedly named directly after his own name, showing greater determination than the last time.</p><p>And Anduran didn't disappoint investors who believed in him again. In 2014, Anduran gained a 38% yield by betting on the plunge in oil prices. In 2016, he gained a 22% yield by betting on the rebound in oil prices, wiping out the fluctuations of oil.</p><p>Anduran, who is extremely talented in crude oil trading, can often make a lot of money in the violent fluctuations of oil prices. Because of this, many people only regard him as a \"lucky man of the times\", a \"bold maniac\" who can succeed in oil and lose oil. After all, who can always predict things like God?</p><p>Anduran, however, thinks otherwise. He said that he was not a \"trade addict\" and never blindly made heavy bets. Every \"big move\" has undergone in-depth research and rigorous analysis. And Anduran's \"grasping the big and letting go of the small\", going deep into the contradiction between supply and demand of a variety of crude oil and the conversion between long and short, has indeed earned rich returns for his investors-since 2008, the cumulative income of funds managed by Anduran has increased nearly tenfold.</p><p>And this time, the heavy bet on the soaring oil price is just a reappearance of Anduran's \"betting\" trading style. He just did what he has always been best at in the circle of competence.</p><p><b>02. Warren Buffett: Comeback</b></p><p>Compared with Anduran's easy acquisition, Buffett's investment in oil is a little bumpy.</p><p>According to the data, Buffett began to re-build his position in Occidental Petroleum on March 1 this year, and increased his position twice in a row on March 4 and March 11, buying Occidental Petroleum as his ninth largest holding. The purchase cost ranged from $46.76 to $56.60 per share. As of March 21, Occidental Petroleum's share price had risen to $60.96, up 30% from Buffett's first purchase.</p><p>The reason why he said to re-open the position is mainly because he had fallen before. Judging from Buffett's historical holdings in Occidental Petroleum, his previous operations on this stock can be described as \"sold before dawn and bought after the price increase.\" So far, it is difficult for Buffett to say that he has made a lot of money in Occidental Petroleum.</p><p>As early as 2019, Occidental Petroleum wanted to acquire<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APC\">Anadarko Oil</a>The company (Anadarko Petroleum) raised funds from Buffett in the form of preferred shares. In addition to paying an annual Dividend of 8%, it also came with call options for common stocks, and the strike price was $62.5. In other words, in addition to paying dividends to Buffett, Occidental Petroleum will also repay part of his common stock. It can be seen from the changes in Buffett's positions in 2019 that he did increase his holdings of Occidental Petroleum.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bbbc39c687e488620cf82d09e84d818\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"659\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, what Buffett, who is full of confidence, is waiting for is the black swan of the epidemic, which caused oil prices to plummet in 2020. At that time, Occidental Petroleum was in a financial crisis due to the acquisition of Anadarko Petroleum, and its stock price fell from more than 40 US dollars at the beginning of the year to 8.8 US dollars at the end of the first quarter. Faced with such a situation, Buffett had no choice but to sell Occidental Petroleum's shares. By the second quarter of 2020, Occidental Petroleum was no longer in Buffett's holdings.</p><p>Regarding this failed investment, Buffett said in an interview that he did misjudge the trend of oil prices.</p><p>Slightly surprisingly, more than a year later, Buffett rebought Occidental Petroleum, which was originally sold for about $15, at a price of about $50, and quickly admitted his mistake.</p><p>Buffett, who has always been known for his value investing and is committed to finding good business, does not prefer the energy industry with strong cycles and high beta. As a typical cyclical stock, why does Occidental Petroleum appear in Buffett's holdings many times?</p><p>According to his past investment experience, the consumption-like logic of stable value-added may be the main reason why Buffett invests in cyclical stocks [5]. Specifically, Occidental Petroleum has a stable competitive landscape and high Dividend payments.</p><p>As the fourth largest oil and gas company in the United States, Occidental Petroleum has experienced large-scale mergers and acquisitions in the U.S. shale oil industry, and the industry competition landscape has stabilized. At the same time, Occidental Petroleum has maintained stable Dividend payments even during the financial crisis and shale revolution. Currently, with the rise in oil prices, Occidental Petroleum's financial situation has also been repaired, which can provide stable financial support for Dividend payments.</p><p>In fact, Buffett has long \"taken a fancy\" to Occidental Petroleum, and the purchase of preferred shares in 2019 is the best proof. It's just that the drastic changes in the external environment in 2020 have caused Buffett to do some operations that seem unwise now, and to stop excessive losses. But what he lost in 2020 was only the money from the decline of common stocks, and Buffett still enjoyed preferred shares's dividends.</p><p>Now that oil prices are rising, Buffett once again sees the opportunity to buy Occidental Petroleum. Even if he pays a higher cost than before, the \"stock god\" is still willing to make a comeback.</p><p><b>03. Icahn, the Wolf King: Take it as soon as you see it</b></p><p>Just as Buffett, the \"stock god\", increased his position in Occidental Petroleum, on the other hand, Icahn, the \"Wolf King of Wall Street\", had sold all the remaining shares of Occidental Petroleum and earned $1 billion.</p><p>Born in 1936 in Queens, New York, Icahn was called \"the most successful speculator on the planet\" by Fortune. After dropping out of new york University, this Jew joined the military camp, where he was a well-known poker master. After retiring from the army, Icahn became a stockbroker and began his investment career as the \"Wolf of Wall Street\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/168b96e5d53577b54ee92ffaca60d1a8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Close-up of Icahn, Image Credit : Icahn: The Restless Billionaire, HBO</p><p>Since he first entered the stock exchange in 1961, Icahn has led numerous \"hostile takeovers\". He often bought a large number of stocks of optimistic companies, became a strategic shareholder of the company and interfered with the company's management decisions, prompting the stock price to rise rapidly in a short period of time.</p><p>To some extent, Icahn is Buffett's \"enemy\" from the root of his investment philosophy. Icahn doesn't care about the development of enterprises. Instead of accompanying the growth of enterprises as Buffett said, he only wants to make profits by buying and selling stocks.</p><p>In 1985, Icahn, who was optimistic about the oil industry, was ready to buy Philip Oil Company. At this time, another consortium offered a higher purchase price to \"cut off\" Philip, and Icahn, who was bound to win, also increased his horsepower to raise the price, but the other party still refused to give up, and even further raised the price, pressing Icahn step by step. After many times, Icahn suddenly sold all his shares and made hundreds of millions of dollars in this round of \"pushing up\".</p><p>And his investment in the stock of Occidental Petroleum also showed his true qualities as a \"wolf king\".</p><p>Back in 2019, Icahn and Buffett both had a rare stake in Occidental Petroleum at the same time, but when Occidental wanted to buy Anadarko Petroleum, the two disagreed.</p><p>Because the acquisition requires a large and expensive sum of capital ($10 billion), it has to be financed by debt, which Icahn objected to. Vicki Hollub, CEO of Occidental Petroleum, insisted on the deal, eventually raising money from Buffett in the way of preferred shares, promising an 8% annual Dividend with equity call options.</p><p>Icahn was very dissatisfied with Holub's approach. He believed that this move not only \"cheaper\" Buffett, but also completely unbeneficial to Occidental Petroleum.</p><p>Not long after, in March 2020, Occidental Petroleum, which was heavily indebted, was affected by the plunge in oil prices, and its stock price fell all the way. Buffett liquidated Occidental Petroleum. This situation made Icahn furious and turned out old scores again-if Holub hadn't insisted on going his own way and Buffett had \"helped the others\", why would Occidental Petroleum have fallen to this point?</p><p>It's useless to be angry. In order to remove Holub, this \"wolf king\" has been increasing his voice in Occidental Petroleum. In just a few months, he increased his shareholding ratio from 2.5% to 10% [14]. Although his recall plan ended in a settlement agreement, objectively Icahn also successfully bought a lot of chips at the low stock price.</p><p>Now, Occidental Petroleum has finally ushered in a soaring stock price. This speculator who \"doesn't care about the development of the enterprise, but only wants to make a profit by buying and selling stocks\" has also taken advantage of the trend to liquidate this stock recently and cash in on the gains.</p><p>Icahn's arbitrage departure at this time is not so much bearish on oil prices as finally retaliating against Occidental Petroleum for failing him.</p><p>Icahn after clearance, just like those who block you and still notify you<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">Weibo</a>Like netizens, I stated in a letter to the board of directors of Occidental Petroleum on March 6 that I have cleared my position, and the two representatives assigned to the board of directors due to the settlement agreement in 2020 will also resign and leave.</p><p>Anyway, for Icahn, there are many ways to express his views on oil prices. According to the Wall Street Journal, Icahn still holds about $500 million worth of Occidental Petroleum warrants. Besides, he also holds shares in other energy companies, such as Cheniere Energy (LNG), the largest producer of liquefied natural gas, and oil refiners<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVI\">CVR Energy</a>Corporation (CVI).</p><p>In short, Icahn, who wanted to interfere with the company's strategic decision-making by holding shares in Occidental Petroleum two years ago, didn't get what he wanted. Now, when the stock price rose, Buffett, who was \"not seeking each other\", ran into the market again. Icahn, who made a profit of 1 billion, decided to say goodbye to each other \"with the fruits of victory\", which is reasonable.</p><p>It can be said that if you don't leave at this time, when will you wait?</p><p><b>04. Epilogue</b></p><p>Oil is still the same oil, but there are a thousand investment value judgments in the eyes of a thousand fund managers.</p><p>In the first half of the game, \"Oil God\" Anduran was in full swing, \"Wolf King\" Icahn achieved fruitful results, and \"Stock God\" Buffett returned to the battlefield. One of them is a crude oil trading master who has won many battles, and the other pair is an old rival who has accumulated deep grievances against Western Petroleum. Betting, trading, holding, which one is higher and which one is lower, I'm afraid I have to extend my eyes to the second half.</p><p>After all, who can have the last laugh and not be eaten by beta in the end is the ultimate test of cyclical products for all investors.</p><p>Will oil prices continue to rise? No one knows the definitive answer. However, compared with oil, people in a relatively static closed loop may want to know more how much will the price of vegetables rise?</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/AI50006ms1hQjSTCoXTd6w\">远川投资评论</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef375710aa7a4298de56c8827d8139df","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/AI50006ms1hQjSTCoXTd6w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109157751","content_text":"3月31日又一轮油价调整就要来了。此前由于原油飙升，国内油价已经五连涨。3月初还只是四连涨的时候，“92号汽油加满，负债满满；95号汽油加满，倾家荡产；98号汽油加满，三代还款！”的段子，还没来得及完成自己在朋友圈刷屏的命运，95号汽油就又在第五轮的上涨里，正式进入了“9元时代”。此刻电动车车主们，或许在庆幸早买早享受、不买要加油。但真正赚到了大便宜的，还是押注了油价上涨的对冲基金们。美国外汇对冲基金CFM旗下追踪市场信号指数的基金今年以来上涨了15%，押注能源价格上涨为其贡献了收益大头；而伦敦对冲基金 Aspect Capital 旗下的多元投资基金（Diversified fund）今年以来上涨了9%，主要原因也无外乎做多石油及其相关商品价格的上涨。这其中，最兴奋不已的莫过于“原油交易之神”皮埃尔·安杜兰（Pierre Andurand）。据《金融时报》透露，他管理的商品自由交易增强基金（Andurand Commodities Discretionary Enhanced Fund）在短短两个月时间里已经赚取了109%的收益。同样押注油价飙升的，还有“股神”巴菲特和“华尔街狼王”伊坎。这对狭路总相逢的死对头，一个还在对西方石油的疯狂加仓，后者已经狂赚10亿后抛售离场。两年前，WTI5月原油期货价格跌到最低-37.63美元/桶，负油价带来的恐慌还记忆犹新，油价反手已经突破了8年前的高点，超过100美元/桶。那么，在这波史诗级的钻石底大反弹里，谁是最敏锐的那一个呢？01、「油神」安杜兰：大战正酣这一次，安杜兰又押对了。2022年才过去两个多月，“原油交易之神” 皮埃尔·安杜兰（Pierre Andurand）管理的商品自由交易增强基金便因押中油价飙升而上涨了109%。在彭博3月24日的采访中，安杜兰依然看多油价，认为到今年年底甚至会触及200美元。安杜兰认为原油涨到200美元一桶已经近在眼前，Bloomberg此前的2020年，安杜兰已经大显身手。他因为做空“负油价”大赚近3亿美元。在安杜兰大举看空油价的2月份，当时的人们也许怎么样都不会相信55美元的油价会变成负数，但每天花十小时研究病毒资料的安杜兰则坚定地认为，一旦疫情爆发，世界各地将会出现大量封锁区，而这会导致原油的需求量骤减，油价一定会暴跌[3]。果不其然，两个月后，油价跌到了-40美元，安杜兰的预言得以验证。说起来，上一次这么单吊石油还大获全胜的人，依然还是安杜兰。这位全球最大原油对冲基金 Andurand Capital Management 的掌门人，早在2008年的金融危机中，便因精准预测油价暴跌而“一战成名”，那一次，他赚取了210%的收益。只不过，那个时候，安杜兰创办的对冲基金还叫 Blue Glod ，而在他真正被封为“油神”之前，也还有一段弯路要走。2007年，30岁的安杜兰离开了全球最大石油交易商——维多集团（Vitol），创立了属于自己的对冲基金公司。在维多集团时，他被称为是“最能赚钱的交易员之一”，不过，生性不羁爱自由的安杜兰还是离开了维多，自己给自己当老板。创立公司后的第二年安杜兰便开始名声大噪，但开局太顺利，或许不是什么好事。安杜兰的创业之路在2008年一鸣惊人后，开始呈现“高开低走”的颓势，接下来三年多的时间里，他管理的基金一路下跌，收益由正转负，直到2012年4月，毫无起色的 Blue Glod 只好关门谢客。失败没有让安杜兰消沉，仅仅过了八个月，他就选择「赌上自己的名字」再来一次。2013年2月，他浮出对冲基金界，创办了 Andurand Capital Management。他毫不掩饰地直接用自己的名字来命名，显示出比上一次更大的决心。而安杜兰也没有让再信他一次的投资者失望。2014年，安杜兰押中油价暴跌获得了38%的收益率，2016年，他又因押中油价反弹获得了22%的收益率，把石油这一个品种的波动吃干抹净。在原油交易上极具天赋的安杜兰，常常能在油价的剧烈波动中赚得盆满钵满，正因如此，不少人只把他当成一个“时代幸运儿”，一个成也石油、还会败也石油的“大胆狂徒”。毕竟，谁能永远料事如神呢？然而安杜兰却不这么认为。他说自己并不是“交易瘾君子”，也从不盲目下重注，每一次“大手笔”都经过了深入的研究和严密的分析。而安杜兰的“抓大放小”，深入原油一个品种的供需矛盾、多空转换，也的确为他的投资者们赚取了丰厚的回报——2008年至今，安杜兰管理的基金累计收益翻了近十倍。而这一次对油价飙升的重押，也不过是安杜兰“下赌注式”交易风格的再现，他只是在能力圈里又做了一直以来最擅长的事。02、「股神」巴菲特：卷土重来比起安杜兰的信手拈来，巴菲特在石油上的投资就稍显坎坷了。资料显示，巴菲特今年3月1日开始重新建仓西方石油，并在3月4日、3月11日连续两次加仓，将西方石油买成了自己的第九大重仓股，买入成本从每股46.76美元到56.60美元不等。截至3月21日，西方石油的股价已经涨到了60.96美元，距巴菲特第一次买入时上涨了30%。之所以说「重新建仓」，主要是因为他之前曾经摔过一跤。从巴菲特对西方石油的历史持仓来看，他此前在这只股票上的操作可谓是“卖在了黎明前，买在了涨价后”，到目前为止，巴菲特在西方石油上很难说赚到了大钱。早在2019年，西方石油要收购阿纳达科石油公司（Anadarko Petroleum），便以优先股的形式向巴菲特募资，除了支付8%的年股息，还附带有普通股的认购期权，执行价格为62.5美元。也就是说，西方石油除了要对巴菲特分红派息外还会偿还他一部分的普通股。而从巴菲特2019年的持仓变化中可以看出，他的确对西方石油进行了增持。然而，信心十足的巴菲特等来的却是疫情这只黑天鹅，让油价在2020年遭遇了暴跌。彼时的西方石油又因收购阿纳达科石油而陷入财务危机，股价从年初的40多美元一路跌到了一季度末的8.8美元。面对如此状况，巴菲特只好卖掉了西方石油的股票，到2020年二季度，巴菲特的持仓中便已不见西方石油的身影。对于这笔失败的投资，巴菲特在接受采访时表示，自己的确是误判了油价走势。稍显意外的是，一年多后，巴菲特却又以50美元左右的价格重新买入了当初15美元左右卖出的西方石油，迅速认错。向来以价值投资著称、致力于寻找好生意的巴菲特，按理说并不偏好强周期、高beta的能源行业，而西方石油作为典型的周期股，为什么屡次出现在巴菲特的持仓中呢？根据其过往的投资经历推断，稳定增值的类消费逻辑或许是巴菲特投资周期股的主要原因[5]。具体放在西方石油身上，是它拥有稳定的竞争格局和较高的股息支付。西方石油作为美国第四大石油和天然气公司，在经历了美页岩油行业大规模并购重组后，行业竞争格局趋于稳定，同时，西方石油即使在金融危机和页岩革命期间也维持了稳定的股息支付，而当前，伴随着油价上涨，西方石油的财务状况也得以修复，更能为股息支付提供稳定的资金支持。其实，巴菲特早就“看中了”西方石油，2019年买入优先股便是最好的证明。只是2020年外部环境的剧烈变化让巴菲特做了一些现在看来并不明智的操作，还止过损。但是2020年亏的只是普通股下跌的钱，而巴菲特仍享受了优先股的分红派息。如今油价上涨，巴菲特再次看到了西方石油的买入时机，就算付出比之前更高的成本，“股神”依然愿意卷土重来。03、「狼王」伊坎：见好就收就在“股神”巴菲特加仓西方石油之际，另一边，“华尔街狼王”伊坎已全部抛售西方石油剩余股票，赚取了10亿美元。1936年出生于纽约皇后区的伊坎，被《财富》称为“这个星球上最成功的投机者”。这位犹太人从纽约大学辍学后便加入了军营，在那里，他是小有名气的扑克牌高手。退伍后，伊坎便成为了一名股票经纪人，开始了他“华尔街之狼”的投资生涯。伊坎的特写，图片来源：Icahn: The Restless Billionaire，HBO从1961年第一次走进证券交易所至今，伊坎主导了无数次“恶意收购”事件，他经常大量买入看好企业的股票，成为该公司的战略股东并干涉公司的管理决策，促使股价在短期内快速上涨。某种程度上，伊坎从投资理念的根源上，就是巴菲特的“敌人”。伊坎并不关心企业发展，与其像巴菲特说的那样陪伴企业成长，他只想通过买卖股票获利。1985年，看好石油行业的伊坎准备收购菲力浦石油公司，此时，另一家财团开出了更高的收购价格想要“截胡”菲力浦，而势在必得的伊坎也加大马力进行提价，但对方依然不肯放弃，甚至又进一步抬高了价格，对伊坎步步紧逼，就在这样多次来回之后，伊坎猛然将手上的股票全部卖出，在这轮股价“推涨”中赚了上亿美元。而他在西方石油这只股票的投资上，也尽显“狼王”本色。早在2019年，伊坎和巴菲特罕见地同时都持有了西方石油的股票，但当西方石油想要收购阿纳达科石油公司（Anadarko Petroleum）时，两人却出现了分歧。由于收购需要一大笔昂贵的资金（100亿美元）就得进行债务融资，伊坎对此提出了反对意见。西方石油的首席执行官薇姬·霍鲁布（Vicki Hollub）执意要达成这笔交易，最终以优先股的方式向巴菲特募资，承诺8%的年股息并附带股权认购期权。对于霍鲁布的这个做法，伊坎十分不满，他认为此举不但“便宜了”巴菲特，对西方石油来说也完全没有好处。不久之后的2020年3月，负债累累的西方石油又受到油价暴跌的影响，股价一路下跌，巴菲特清仓了西方石油。此情此景让伊坎愤怒不已，再次翻出旧账——要不是霍鲁布一意孤行，巴菲特“助纣为虐”，西方石油何至于沦落至此？生气没用，为了能够罢免霍鲁布，这位“狼王”一路提高自己在西方石油上的话语权，在短短几个月里，就把持股比例从2.5%提升到了10%[14]。虽然他的罢免计划最后以和解协议告终，但客观上伊坎也成功地在股价低位抄底了一大堆筹码。如今，西方石油终于迎来股价飙涨，这位“不关心企业发展，只想通过买卖股票获利”的投机派也顺势在近期清仓了这只股票，兑现收益。伊坎此时的套利离场，与其说是看空油价，倒不如说是终于报复了西方石油曾经辜负了他。清仓后的伊坎，就像那些拉黑你还要通知你的微博网友一样，在3月6日致西方石油董事会的信中表示，我清仓了，而且2020年因为和解协议而安排到董事会里的两位代表，也会辞职离开。反正对于伊坎来说，表达他对油价看法的方式也很多。据《华尔街日报》的报道，伊坎目前仍持有约5亿美元价值的西方石油公司认股权证。除此之外，他还拿着其它能源公司的股票，比如液化天然气最大生产商Cheniere能源公司(LNG)，以及炼油商CVR能源公司(CVI)。总之，两年前想通过持股西方石油干涉该公司战略决策的伊坎并没有如愿以偿，如今好不容易等到股价上涨，“不相为谋”的巴菲特又跑步进场，获利10亿的伊坎决定“揣着胜利的果实”互道一声拜拜，也就在情理之中了。正可谓，此时不走，更待何时？04、尾声石油还是同样的石油，只是一千个基金经理眼中有一千种投资价值判断。在游戏的上半场，“油神”安杜兰激战正酣，“狼王”伊坎硕果累累，“股神”巴菲特则重回战场。他们一个是屡战屡胜的原油交易大神，另一对则是在西方石油上「积怨已深」的老对手。押注、交易、持有，孰高孰低，恐怕还要再把眼光拉长到下半场。毕竟谁能笑到最后，最终不被贝塔反噬，是周期品对所有投资者的终极考验。油价还会继续上涨吗？没人知道确定的答案。不过，相比石油，处在相对静止闭环中的人或许更想知道的，菜价还会涨多少？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":855,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9031894919,"gmtCreate":1646495742980,"gmtModify":1676534134887,"author":{"id":"4087300025751020","authorId":"4087300025751020","name":"老八公","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27256ede8324832365cde987fa4cf48","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087300025751020","authorIdStr":"4087300025751020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9031894919","repostId":"2217767460","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2217767460","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1646465600,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2217767460?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-05 15:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Berkshire Hathaway increases its position in Occidental Petroleum","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2217767460","media":"新浪财经","summary":"亿万富豪沃伦·巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔哈撒韦增加了对传统能源巨头西方石油的投资比例，公开文件显示该公司今年买入了近3，000万股西方石油。　　当地时间周五公布的一份监管文件显示，这些股票是伯克希尔哈撒韦在今年买入，因此该公司持有的西方石油股票总数量达到1.137亿股，西方石油目前总股本在9.34亿股左右。统计数据显示，伯克希尔哈撒韦目前持有占比约11.2%西方石油普通股，这笔投资目前价值约为64亿美元。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Billionaire Warren Buffett's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway (BRK.A.US) Increases Stake in Traditional Energy Giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>(OXY.US) investment ratio, public documents show that the company has bought nearly 30 million shares of Occidental Petroleum this year. A regulatory filing released on Friday local time showed that these stocks were bought by Berkshire Hathaway this year, bringing the total number of Occidental Petroleum shares held by the company to 113.7 million shares. Occidental Petroleum's current total share capital is 934 million shares or so. Statistics show that Berkshire Hathaway currently holds approximately 11.2% of Occidental Petroleum's common stock, and this investment is currently worth approximately US $6.4 billion.</p><p>Buffett had invested $10 billion back in 2019, when he helped Occidental Petroleum acquire<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APC\">Anadarko Oil</a>Company (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEUA\">Anadarko Petroleum Corp</a>.)。 It is reported that almost all of the more than 83 million Occidental Petroleum shares held by Berkshire are linked to the warrants obtained in the transaction, which have been generating payments.</p><p>It is understood that the news was announced after the U.S. stock market closed on Friday. Crude oil prices rose all the way yesterday evening, with an increase of more than 6%. Driven by this main positive factor, Occidental Petroleum rose by as much as 17.59% during the trading hours yesterday and nearly 2% after hours.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Berkshire Hathaway increases its position in Occidental Petroleum</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBerkshire Hathaway increases its position in Occidental Petroleum\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-05 15:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Billionaire Warren Buffett's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway (BRK.A.US) Increases Stake in Traditional Energy Giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>(OXY.US) investment ratio, public documents show that the company has bought nearly 30 million shares of Occidental Petroleum this year. A regulatory filing released on Friday local time showed that these stocks were bought by Berkshire Hathaway this year, bringing the total number of Occidental Petroleum shares held by the company to 113.7 million shares. Occidental Petroleum's current total share capital is 934 million shares or so. Statistics show that Berkshire Hathaway currently holds approximately 11.2% of Occidental Petroleum's common stock, and this investment is currently worth approximately US $6.4 billion.</p><p>Buffett had invested $10 billion back in 2019, when he helped Occidental Petroleum acquire<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APC\">Anadarko Oil</a>Company (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEUA\">Anadarko Petroleum Corp</a>.)。 It is reported that almost all of the more than 83 million Occidental Petroleum shares held by Berkshire are linked to the warrants obtained in the transaction, which have been generating payments.</p><p>It is understood that the news was announced after the U.S. stock market closed on Friday. Crude oil prices rose all the way yesterday evening, with an increase of more than 6%. Driven by this main positive factor, Occidental Petroleum rose by as much as 17.59% during the trading hours yesterday and nearly 2% after hours.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/ggscyd/2022-03-05/doc-imcwipih6744786.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c94afdb1600dc1c5d88c57e11919166c","relate_stocks":{"BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BK4176":"多领域控股","BK4201":"综合性石油与天然气企业","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","OXY":"西方石油","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/ggscyd/2022-03-05/doc-imcwipih6744786.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2217767460","content_text":"亿万富豪沃伦·巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔哈撒韦(BRK.A.US)增加了对传统能源巨头西方石油(OXY.US)的投资比例，公开文件显示该公司今年买入了近3,000万股西方石油。当地时间周五公布的一份监管文件显示，这些股票是伯克希尔哈撒韦在今年买入，因此该公司持有的西方石油股票总数量达到1.137亿股，西方石油目前总股本在9.34亿股左右。统计数据显示，伯克希尔哈撒韦目前持有占比约11.2%西方石油普通股，这笔投资目前价值约为64亿美元。巴菲特早在2019年就已投资100亿美元，当时他帮助西方石油公司收购了阿纳达科石油公司(Anadarko Petroleum Corp.)。据悉，伯克希尔所持有的超过8300万股西方石油股票，几乎全部与该项交易中获得的认股权证挂钩，这些认股权证一直在产生支付款项。据了解，该消息于周五美股盘后公布。原油价格昨日晚间一路上行，涨幅超过6%，在这一主要利好因素带动之下西方石油昨日在交易时间段涨幅高达17.59%，盘后涨幅接近2%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.6,"OXY":0.6,"BRK.A":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914858397,"gmtCreate":1665242217219,"gmtModify":1676537577449,"author":{"id":"4087300025751020","authorId":"4087300025751020","name":"老八公","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27256ede8324832365cde987fa4cf48","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087300025751020","authorIdStr":"4087300025751020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914858397","repostId":"1162298976","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9063192673,"gmtCreate":1651420883427,"gmtModify":1676534904039,"author":{"id":"4087300025751020","authorId":"4087300025751020","name":"老八公","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27256ede8324832365cde987fa4cf48","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087300025751020","authorIdStr":"4087300025751020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9063192673","repostId":"1190110506","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":787,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}