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老八公
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老八公
08-05
$苹果(AAPL)$
老八公
2024-07-04
Nice and so glad to know the activity
老八公
2024-07-03
Good activity and very helpful
老八公
2024-01-10
good luck to you guys and your family today too much
老八公
2024-01-09
good morning my friend and the family
老八公
2024-01-08
Good morning my friend how is everything going
老八公
2024-01-07
Good luck to you and your family and your friends
老八公
2024-01-07
Good morning my love how are you doing
老八公
2024-01-06
Good game and good game to play with friends
老八公
2024-01-05
$苹果(AAPL)$
老八公
2024-01-05
game play with your team and your friends on this
老八公
2024-01-04
play with your friends and family at home
老八公
2024-01-04
good luck to you all today
老八公
2024-01-03
Good game play with you
老八公
2024-01-02
Good game to play a lot
老八公
2023-12-31
good game to play let us go go
老八公
2023-12-25
Nice xclassrooM to join
老八公
2023-12-24
Happy game to play let us go
老八公
2023-12-22
Oggoogogog Okay this game
老八公
2023-11-05
good game with friends
Go to Tiger App to see more news
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hooood","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":22,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9956866334","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":755,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9072129096,"gmtCreate":1657986915415,"gmtModify":1676536090958,"author":{"id":"4087300025751020","authorId":"4087300025751020","name":"老八公","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27256ede8324832365cde987fa4cf48","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087300025751020","idStr":"4087300025751020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9072129096","repostId":"2251745455","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2251745455","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1657935455,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2251745455?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-16 09:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The bullwhip effect is reversing! Amazon Prime Day Spending Bash Is Just a Discount Bash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2251745455","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"亚马逊为期两日的Prime Day成为2022年迄今为止美国最大的网络购物日,鉴于其消费提振基于其巨大折扣,分析认为牛鞭效应正在反转。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>A two-day (July 12 to July 13) \"Double Eleven\" belonging to the American people<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Prime Day came to an end this week, and \"explosive\" consumption seems to have overturned the previous market concerns about the \"collapse\" of American consumer confidence.</p><p>Global e-commerce giant Amazon said on Thursday that its members at this year's Prime Day event<b>More than 300 million purchases, totaling $11.9 billion, made it the largest Prime Day event in the company's history</b>。 During the event, sales growth among Amazon store sales partners outpaced the company's retail business, with customers purchasing more than 100 million small business items and spending more than $3 billion in sweepstakes contests.</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>Adobe Digital Economy Index, Amazon's Prime Day first-day sales reached $6 billion, up 7.8% from last year, making it the largest online shopping day in the United States so far in 2022. The next day's sales reached $5.9 billion,<b>Two-day sales increased 8.5% year-on-year</b>。</p><p>However,<b>Selling more does not mean selling well, nor can it be directly linked to the revival of consumer confidence</b>。 According to the statistics of Numerator, a market research company, based on the first day, most of the goods sold this time are consumer goods, and the best-selling products include diapers, beauty products, etc. 57% of consumers buy goods for less than $20, and only 5% of consumers buy goods for more than $100.</p><p>Citibank analysis believes that,<b>This consumer buying frenzy is mainly due to unprecedented discounts on Amazon's platform</b>。 For example, the Amazon Fire TV 50-inch 4K TV is as low as 2.1% off this time, and the accommodation campus daily necessities for the September school season are also greatly discounted. As the bullwhip effect reverses, Outlets, which has a heavy discount, will also take a hit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f321b1cabbe22304e2447577e3f63877\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The so-called \"bullwhip effect\" refers to a phenomenon of demand variation amplification in the supply chain, which makes it impossible to effectively share information when the information flow is transmitted from the final client to the original supplier, which makes the information distorted and amplified step by step, resulting in increasing fluctuations in demand information. The amplification effect of this information distortion is graphically like a thrown bullwhip, so it is vividly called bullwhip effect.</p><p>Previously, when American consumers were immersed in the \"unprecedented\" discount season, when those tight goods during the period of supply chain chaos were arbitrarily selected, correspondingly, American retailers were facing the worst \"inventory crisis\" since the bursting of the Internet bubble.</p><p>An earlier article on Wall Street mentioned that the \"bullwhip effect\" in the U.S. retail industry is coming to an end, and excess inventory forces U.S. importers to reduce overseas orders, thus lowering shipping costs, which may eventually lead to a recession in the freight industry. Retail giants Target and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>It is pointed out that the total import of consumer goods in the United States fell by about $1.5 billion in May, indicating that the demand for overseas products is declining and consumer spending on durable goods has decreased significantly.</p><p>According to Michael Burry, the \"big short prototype\", the previous oversupply in the retail industry formed a \"bullwhip effect\", and as demand slows down, the \"bullwhip effect\" comes to an end and will trigger deflation later this year, prompting the Federal Reserve to reverse the path of tightening and even restart easing.</p><p>Furthermore,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Economist Aditya Bhave previously analyzed Independence Day holiday spending data in early July. As measured by credit and debit cards aggregated by BAC, there was only a small \"holiday shock\" in spending in the two weeks to July 9. A year-on-year increase of 3.5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da5f7fd821414fc025fcffe186e98d87\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Considering that the inflation rate in the United States is as high as 9.1%, this year's \"holiday shock\" of spending is smaller than in the previous three years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b334062cdb2173db97c80ea8d64c280\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bank of America's previous view was that actual economic activity is slowing down, and the United States will start a mild recession in the second half of 2022, lowering the target point of the S&P 500 index at the end of the year from the previous 4,500 points to 3,600 points, and also predicting that the Fed's QT will end faster than expected.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The bullwhip effect is reversing! Amazon Prime Day Spending Bash Is Just a Discount Bash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe bullwhip effect is reversing! Amazon Prime Day Spending Bash Is Just a Discount Bash\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-16 09:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>A two-day (July 12 to July 13) \"Double Eleven\" belonging to the American people<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Prime Day came to an end this week, and \"explosive\" consumption seems to have overturned the previous market concerns about the \"collapse\" of American consumer confidence.</p><p>Global e-commerce giant Amazon said on Thursday that its members at this year's Prime Day event<b>More than 300 million purchases, totaling $11.9 billion, made it the largest Prime Day event in the company's history</b>。 During the event, sales growth among Amazon store sales partners outpaced the company's retail business, with customers purchasing more than 100 million small business items and spending more than $3 billion in sweepstakes contests.</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>Adobe Digital Economy Index, Amazon's Prime Day first-day sales reached $6 billion, up 7.8% from last year, making it the largest online shopping day in the United States so far in 2022. The next day's sales reached $5.9 billion,<b>Two-day sales increased 8.5% year-on-year</b>。</p><p>However,<b>Selling more does not mean selling well, nor can it be directly linked to the revival of consumer confidence</b>。 According to the statistics of Numerator, a market research company, based on the first day, most of the goods sold this time are consumer goods, and the best-selling products include diapers, beauty products, etc. 57% of consumers buy goods for less than $20, and only 5% of consumers buy goods for more than $100.</p><p>Citibank analysis believes that,<b>This consumer buying frenzy is mainly due to unprecedented discounts on Amazon's platform</b>。 For example, the Amazon Fire TV 50-inch 4K TV is as low as 2.1% off this time, and the accommodation campus daily necessities for the September school season are also greatly discounted. As the bullwhip effect reverses, Outlets, which has a heavy discount, will also take a hit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f321b1cabbe22304e2447577e3f63877\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The so-called \"bullwhip effect\" refers to a phenomenon of demand variation amplification in the supply chain, which makes it impossible to effectively share information when the information flow is transmitted from the final client to the original supplier, which makes the information distorted and amplified step by step, resulting in increasing fluctuations in demand information. The amplification effect of this information distortion is graphically like a thrown bullwhip, so it is vividly called bullwhip effect.</p><p>Previously, when American consumers were immersed in the \"unprecedented\" discount season, when those tight goods during the period of supply chain chaos were arbitrarily selected, correspondingly, American retailers were facing the worst \"inventory crisis\" since the bursting of the Internet bubble.</p><p>An earlier article on Wall Street mentioned that the \"bullwhip effect\" in the U.S. retail industry is coming to an end, and excess inventory forces U.S. importers to reduce overseas orders, thus lowering shipping costs, which may eventually lead to a recession in the freight industry. Retail giants Target and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>It is pointed out that the total import of consumer goods in the United States fell by about $1.5 billion in May, indicating that the demand for overseas products is declining and consumer spending on durable goods has decreased significantly.</p><p>According to Michael Burry, the \"big short prototype\", the previous oversupply in the retail industry formed a \"bullwhip effect\", and as demand slows down, the \"bullwhip effect\" comes to an end and will trigger deflation later this year, prompting the Federal Reserve to reverse the path of tightening and even restart easing.</p><p>Furthermore,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Economist Aditya Bhave previously analyzed Independence Day holiday spending data in early July. As measured by credit and debit cards aggregated by BAC, there was only a small \"holiday shock\" in spending in the two weeks to July 9. A year-on-year increase of 3.5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da5f7fd821414fc025fcffe186e98d87\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Considering that the inflation rate in the United States is as high as 9.1%, this year's \"holiday shock\" of spending is smaller than in the previous three years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b334062cdb2173db97c80ea8d64c280\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bank of America's previous view was that actual economic activity is slowing down, and the United States will start a mild recession in the second half of 2022, lowering the target point of the S&P 500 index at the end of the year from the previous 4,500 points to 3,600 points, and also predicting that the Fed's QT will end faster than expected.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664944\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09dcab47335b8ae75b1a72cadf884fc8","relate_stocks":{"BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4566":"资本集团","AMZN":"亚马逊","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4538":"云计算","BK4579":"人工智能"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664944","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2251745455","content_text":"为期两日(7月12日至7月13日)、属于美国人民的“双十一”亚马逊Prime Day本周落下帷幕,“爆炸式”消费似乎推翻了此前市场担忧的美国消费者信心“崩塌”。全球电商巨头亚马逊周四表示,在今年的Prime Day活动中其会员购买了超过3亿件商品,共计119亿美元的战绩使其成为该公司历史上最大的Prime Day活动。活动期间,亚马逊商店销售合作伙伴的销售额增长超过了该公司的零售业务,顾客在抽奖比赛中购买了超过1亿件小企业商品,花费超过30亿美元。据Adobe数字经济指数(Adobe Digital Economy Index),亚马逊Prime Day首日销售额达60亿美元,较去年增长7.8%,成为2022年迄今为止美国最大的网络购物日。次日销售额达59亿美元,两日销售额同比增长8.5%。不过,卖的多并不意味着卖的好,也不能直接与消费信心重振所挂钩。市场研究公司Numerator的基于首日的统计数据也显示,此次卖出商品类别以日用消费品居多,最畅销的产品包括尿布、美容产品等等,有57%的消费者购买的商品售价低于20美元,只有5%的消费者购买的售价超过100美元。花旗银行分析认为,此次消费者购买狂潮主要得益于亚马逊平台前所未有的折扣。比如亚马逊Fire TV 50英寸4K电视此次低至2.1折,而针对9月开学季的住宿校园生活用品也大打折扣。随着牛鞭效应的逆转,折扣较大的奥特莱斯也会受到冲击。所谓“牛鞭效应”,指供应链上的一种需求变异放大现象,使信息流从最终客户端向原始供应商端传递时,无法有效地实现信息共享,使得信息扭曲而逐级放大,导致了需求信息出现越来越大的波动,此信息扭曲的放大作用在图形上很像一个甩起的牛鞭,因此被形象地称为牛鞭效应。此前,当美国消费者沉浸在“前所未有”的折扣季中时,当那些供应链混乱时期的紧俏商品被任意挑选时,相对应的,是美国零售商正在面临自互联网泡沫破灭以来最严重的“库存危机”。华尔街见闻稍早前文章提及,美国零售业“牛鞭效应”正接近尾声,库存过剩迫使美国进口商减少海外订单,从而压低海运费用,最终可能导致货运业衰退。零售巨头Target和沃尔玛指出,5月美国消费品进口总额下降了约15亿美元,表明海外产品的需求正在下降,消费者耐用品方面支出大幅减少。按照“大空头原型”Michael Burry的说法,零售业此前的供给过剩形成了“牛鞭效应”,而随着需求放缓,“牛鞭效应”迎来终结,并将在今年晚些时候引发通货紧缩,促使美联储逆转紧缩之路,甚至重启宽松。此外,美国银行经济学家Aditya Bhave此前对7月初独立日假日消费数据进行了分析,按照BAC汇总的信用卡和借记卡衡量,在截至7月9日的两周内,支出只有一个小幅的\"节日冲击\",同比增长3.5%。考虑到美国目前已经高达9.1%的通胀率,今年支出的\"节日冲击\"比前三年都要小。美银此前的观点是,实际的经济活动正在放缓,美国将于2022年下半年启动温和衰退,将年末标普500指数目标点位从之前的4500点下调至3600点,同时还预测美联储的QT将比预期更快结束。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":746,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9051249423,"gmtCreate":1654703421362,"gmtModify":1676535495496,"author":{"id":"4087300025751020","authorId":"4087300025751020","name":"老八公","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27256ede8324832365cde987fa4cf48","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087300025751020","idStr":"4087300025751020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9051249423","repostId":"1135397463","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9936475251,"gmtCreate":1662818479973,"gmtModify":1676537145733,"author":{"id":"4087300025751020","authorId":"4087300025751020","name":"老八公","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27256ede8324832365cde987fa4cf48","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087300025751020","idStr":"4087300025751020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9936475251","repostId":"1131057403","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131057403","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662764868,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131057403?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-10 07:07","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Buffett continues to sweep Occidental Petroleum, and his shareholding ratio has exceeded a quarter","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131057403","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"据9月9日周五公布的一份监管文件显示,巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司购买了更多西方石油公司的股票,将其持有的已发行股票比例增至26.8%。据9月9日周五公布的一份监管文件显示,巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司购","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>According to a regulatory filing released on Friday, September 9, Buffett's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway Bought More<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>The company's shares, increasing its holdings of outstanding shares to 26.8%. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway bought more shares of Occidental Petroleum, increasing its holdings of outstanding shares to 26.8%, according to a regulatory filing released on Friday, Sept. 9.</p><p>Last month, Berkshire held a 20.2% stake in Occidental.</p><p>Although oil prices have fallen recently, they once hit a 14-year high. As of Friday's close, Occidental Petroleum's share price has risen by more than 110% this year. Occidental Petroleum's shares closed up 1.58% at $65.61 on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fe8fbc1c7ec08f303ce37ef52afec92\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Buffett's increasing stake in Occidental Petroleum has sparked speculation that Buffett may consider bidding for the entire company. Some media reported last month, citing people familiar with the matter, that Buffett would not bid even after receiving regulatory approval to buy a 50% stake in the oil company.</p><p>Why does Buffett favor Occidental Petroleum?</p><p>First, inflation appeared to be the megatrend in the first half of the 2020s, and crude oil is one of the best natural hedges against inflation right now. Geopolitical conflicts and a lack of investment in new oil fields over the past five years have hit crude oil supplies, causing oil production conditions for everything from OPEC to U.S. shale oil to stagnate. Meanwhile, market demand for fossil fuels has been strong due to factors such as the pandemic, despite governments' push to shift to clean energy. Therefore, while with the transition from utilities to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">Solar energy</a>And other investments in the energy sector, Buffett claims to be a realist in the debate around fossil fuels.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buffett continues to sweep Occidental Petroleum, and his shareholding ratio has exceeded a quarter</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuffett continues to sweep Occidental Petroleum, and his shareholding ratio has exceeded a quarter\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-10 07:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>According to a regulatory filing released on Friday, September 9, Buffett's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway Bought More<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>The company's shares, increasing its holdings of outstanding shares to 26.8%. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway bought more shares of Occidental Petroleum, increasing its holdings of outstanding shares to 26.8%, according to a regulatory filing released on Friday, Sept. 9.</p><p>Last month, Berkshire held a 20.2% stake in Occidental.</p><p>Although oil prices have fallen recently, they once hit a 14-year high. As of Friday's close, Occidental Petroleum's share price has risen by more than 110% this year. Occidental Petroleum's shares closed up 1.58% at $65.61 on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fe8fbc1c7ec08f303ce37ef52afec92\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Buffett's increasing stake in Occidental Petroleum has sparked speculation that Buffett may consider bidding for the entire company. Some media reported last month, citing people familiar with the matter, that Buffett would not bid even after receiving regulatory approval to buy a 50% stake in the oil company.</p><p>Why does Buffett favor Occidental Petroleum?</p><p>First, inflation appeared to be the megatrend in the first half of the 2020s, and crude oil is one of the best natural hedges against inflation right now. Geopolitical conflicts and a lack of investment in new oil fields over the past five years have hit crude oil supplies, causing oil production conditions for everything from OPEC to U.S. shale oil to stagnate. Meanwhile, market demand for fossil fuels has been strong due to factors such as the pandemic, despite governments' push to shift to clean energy. Therefore, while with the transition from utilities to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">Solar energy</a>And other investments in the energy sector, Buffett claims to be a realist in the debate around fossil fuels.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670025\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e152604a758586cf70e9ccdd654d17d","relate_stocks":{"BK4176":"多领域控股","BK4201":"综合性石油与天然气企业","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","OXY":"西方石油","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670025","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131057403","content_text":"据9月9日周五公布的一份监管文件显示,巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司购买了更多西方石油公司的股票,将其持有的已发行股票比例增至26.8%。据9月9日周五公布的一份监管文件显示,巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司购买了更多西方石油公司的股票,将其持有的已发行股票比例增至26.8%。上个月,伯克希尔哈撒韦持有西方石油20.2%的股份。尽管最近油价有所回落,但此前一度触及十四年高位,截至周五收盘,今年以来西方石油股价已经累计上涨了超过110%。西方石油的股价周五收涨1.58%,报65.61美元。巴菲特对西方石油的股权不断增加,引发外界猜测巴菲特可能会考虑竞购整个公司。 有媒体上个月援引知情人士的话报道称,即使在获得监管机构批准购买该石油公司50%的股份后,巴菲特也不会出价。为什么巴菲特青睐西方石油公司呢?首先,在2020年代的上半部分,通货膨胀似乎是大趋势,而原油是目前最好的天然对冲通胀的工具之一。由于地缘冲突以及过去五年缺乏对新油田的投资已经打击了原油的供应,导致从OPEC到美国页岩油的所有石油生产状况都停滞不前。与此同时,尽管各国政府推动转向清洁能源,但由于疫情等因素,市场对化石燃料的需求一直很强劲。因此,虽然随着从公用事业到太阳能等能源领域的投资,巴菲特声称自己是围绕化石燃料辩论的现实主义者。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"OXY":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":569,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059366330,"gmtCreate":1654304677120,"gmtModify":1676535427690,"author":{"id":"4087300025751020","authorId":"4087300025751020","name":"老八公","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27256ede8324832365cde987fa4cf48","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087300025751020","idStr":"4087300025751020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059366330","repostId":"1154917667","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9013243084,"gmtCreate":1648738627869,"gmtModify":1676534389099,"author":{"id":"4087300025751020","authorId":"4087300025751020","name":"老八公","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27256ede8324832365cde987fa4cf48","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087300025751020","idStr":"4087300025751020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9013243084","repostId":"1109157751","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109157751","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648692694,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109157751?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-31 10:11","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Oil gods, stock gods and wolf kings under soaring oil prices","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109157751","media":"远川投资评论","summary":"石油还是同样的石油,只是一千个基金经理眼中有一千种投资价值判断。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Another round of oil price adjustment is coming on March 31.</p><p>Previously, domestic oil prices have risen for five consecutive days due to the surge in crude oil. At the beginning of March, it was only four consecutive rises. \"92-octane gasoline is filled, and the debt is full; 95-octane gasoline is filled, and everything is lost; 98-octane gasoline is filled, and three generations of repayment!\" Before I could finish my fate of swiping the screen in the circle of friends, 95-octane gasoline officially entered the \"9 yuan era\" in the fifth round of rise.</p><p>At the moment, electric vehicle owners may be glad to buy early and enjoy it early, but if they don't buy it, they have to refuel. But the real bargain is the hedge funds that bet on rising oil prices.</p><p>U.S. foreign exchange hedge fund CFM's fund, which tracks the market signal index, has risen 15% this year, betting that rising energy prices have contributed most of its gains; The Diversified fund owned by London hedge fund Aspect Capital has risen 9% this year, mainly due to the rise in long oil and related commodity prices.</p><p>Among them, the most excited one is Pierre Andurand, the \"God of Crude Oil Trading\". According to the Financial Times, the Andurand Commodities Discretionary Enhanced Fund he manages has earned 109% in just two months. Also betting on soaring oil prices are \"Stock God\" Buffett and \"Wall Street Wolf King\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IKAN\">Icahn</a>。 This pair of sworn enemies who always meet on the narrow road, one is still against each other<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>The latter had already earned 1 billion and sold off the market.</p><p>Two years ago, the price of WTI crude oil futures in May fell to a minimum of-US $37.63/barrel. The panic caused by negative oil prices is still fresh in my memory. The backhand oil price has broken through the high of eight years ago, exceeding US $100/barrel.</p><p>So, in this epic diamond bottom rebound, who is the sharpest one?</p><p><b>01. Oil God Anduran: The war is in full swing</b></p><p>This time, Anduran was right again.</p><p>Just over two months have passed in 2022, and the Commodity Free Trading Enhancement Fund managed by Pierre Andurand, the \"God of Crude Oil Trading\", has risen 109% due to a bet on soaring oil prices. In an interview with Bloomberg on March 24, Anduran was still bullish on oil prices, believing that it would even hit $200 by the end of this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f68e42d61df008e14b35612c7ca1d42\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Anduran believes crude oil rising to $200 a barrel is just around the corner, Bloomberg</p><p>Before 2020, Anduran had already shown his talents. He made a huge profit of nearly $300 million by shorting \"negative oil prices\". In February, when Anduran was aggressively bearish on oil prices, people at that time might not have believed that the oil price of $55 would become negative, but Anduran, who spent ten hours a day studying virus data, firmly believed that once the epidemic broke out, a large number of blockade areas would appear all over the world, which would lead to a sharp drop in demand for crude oil and a sharp drop in oil prices [3]. Sure enough, two months later, the oil price fell to-$40, and Anduran's prediction was verified.</p><p>Speaking of it, the person who won such a big victory last time he lifted oil alone was still Anduran.</p><p>The head of Andurand Capital Management, the world's largest crude oil hedge fund, became famous as early as the 2008 financial crisis for accurately predicting the plunge in oil prices. At that time, he earned 210% of the returns.</p><p>However, at that time, the hedge fund founded by Anduran was still called Blue Glod, and before he was truly named the \"Oil God\", there was still a detour to go.</p><p>In 2007, at the age of 30, Anduran left Vitol, the world's largest oil trader, and set up his own hedge fund company. When he was in Vitol Group, he was called \"one of the most profitable traders\". However, Anduran, who was unruly and loves freedom by nature, left Vitol and became his own boss.</p><p>Anduran began to become famous in the second year after founding the company, but the start was too smooth, which may not be a good thing. After Anduran's entrepreneurial journey became a blockbuster in 2008, it began to show a decline of \"opening high and going low\". In the next three years or so, the funds he managed fell all the way, and the income turned from positive to negative until April 2012, Blue Glod, which had no improvement, had to close its doors to thank customers.</p><p>Failure didn't depress Anduran. After only eight months, he chose to gamble his name again. In February 2013, he surfaced into the hedge fund world and founded Andurand Capital Management. He unabashedly named directly after his own name, showing greater determination than the last time.</p><p>And Anduran didn't disappoint investors who believed in him again. In 2014, Anduran gained a 38% yield by betting on the plunge in oil prices. In 2016, he gained a 22% yield by betting on the rebound in oil prices, wiping out the fluctuations of oil.</p><p>Anduran, who is extremely talented in crude oil trading, often makes a lot of money in the violent fluctuations of oil prices. Because of this, many people only regard him as a \"lucky man of the times\", a \"bold maniac\" who can succeed in oil and lose oil. After all, who can always predict things like God?</p><p>Anduran, however, thinks otherwise. He said that he was not a \"trade addict\" and never blindly made heavy bets. Every \"big move\" has undergone in-depth research and rigorous analysis. And Anduran's \"grasping the big and letting go of the small\", going deep into the contradiction between supply and demand of a variety of crude oil and the conversion between long and short, has indeed earned rich returns for his investors-since 2008, the cumulative income of funds managed by Anduran has increased nearly tenfold.</p><p>And this time, the heavy bet on the soaring oil price is just a reappearance of Anduran's \"betting\" trading style. He just did what he has always been best at in the circle of competence.</p><p><b>02. Warren Buffett: Comeback</b></p><p>Compared with Anduran's easy acquisition, Buffett's investment in oil is a little bumpy.</p><p>According to the data, Buffett began to re-build his position in Occidental Petroleum on March 1 this year, and increased his position twice in a row on March 4 and March 11, buying Occidental Petroleum as his ninth largest holding. The purchase cost ranged from $46.76 to $56.60 per share. As of March 21, Occidental Petroleum's share price had risen to $60.96, up 30% from Buffett's first purchase.</p><p>The reason why he said to re-open the position is mainly because he had fallen before. Judging from Buffett's historical holdings in Occidental Petroleum, his previous operations on this stock can be described as \"sold before dawn and bought after the price increase.\" So far, it is difficult for Buffett to say that he has made a lot of money in Occidental Petroleum.</p><p>As early as 2019, Occidental Petroleum wanted to acquire<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APC\">Anadarko Oil</a>The company (Anadarko Petroleum) raised funds from Buffett in the form of preferred shares. In addition to paying an annual Dividend of 8%, it also came with a call option on common stocks, and the strike price was $62.5. In other words, in addition to paying dividends to Buffett, Occidental Petroleum will also repay part of his common stock. It can be seen from the changes in Buffett's positions in 2019 that he did increase his holdings of Occidental Petroleum.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bbbc39c687e488620cf82d09e84d818\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"659\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, what Buffett, who is full of confidence, is waiting for is the black swan of the epidemic, which caused oil prices to plummet in 2020. At that time, Occidental Petroleum was in a financial crisis due to the acquisition of Anadarko Petroleum, and its stock price fell from more than 40 US dollars at the beginning of the year to 8.8 US dollars at the end of the first quarter. Faced with such a situation, Buffett had no choice but to sell Occidental Petroleum's shares. By the second quarter of 2020, Occidental Petroleum was no longer in Buffett's holdings.</p><p>Regarding this failed investment, Buffett said in an interview that he did misjudge the trend of oil prices.</p><p>Slightly surprisingly, more than a year later, Buffett rebought Occidental Petroleum, which was originally sold for about $15, at a price of about $50, and quickly admitted his mistake.</p><p>Buffett, who has always been known for his value investing and is committed to finding good business, does not prefer the energy industry with strong cycles and high beta. As a typical cyclical stock, why does Occidental Petroleum appear in Buffett's holdings many times?</p><p>According to his past investment experience, the consumption-like logic of stable value-added may be the main reason why Buffett invests in cyclical stocks [5]. Specifically, Occidental Petroleum has a stable competitive landscape and high Dividend payments.</p><p>As the fourth largest oil and gas company in the United States, Occidental Petroleum has experienced large-scale mergers and acquisitions in the U.S. shale oil industry, and the industry competition landscape has stabilized. At the same time, Occidental Petroleum has maintained stable Dividend payments even during the financial crisis and shale revolution. Currently, with the rise in oil prices, Occidental Petroleum's financial situation has also been repaired, which can provide stable financial support for Dividend payments.</p><p>In fact, Buffett has long \"taken a fancy\" to Occidental Petroleum, and the purchase of preferred shares in 2019 is the best proof. It's just that the drastic changes in the external environment in 2020 have caused Buffett to do some operations that seem unwise now, and to stop excessive losses. But what he lost in 2020 was only the money from the decline of common stocks, and Buffett still enjoyed preferred shares's dividends.</p><p>Now that oil prices are rising, Buffett once again sees the opportunity to buy Occidental Petroleum. Even if he pays a higher cost than before, the \"stock god\" is still willing to make a comeback.</p><p><b>03. Icahn, the Wolf King: Take it as soon as you see it</b></p><p>Just as Buffett, the \"stock god\", increased his position in Occidental Petroleum, on the other hand, Icahn, the \"Wolf King of Wall Street\", had sold all the remaining shares of Occidental Petroleum and earned $1 billion.</p><p>Born in 1936 in Queens, New York, Icahn was called \"the most successful speculator on the planet\" by Fortune. After dropping out of new york University, this Jew joined the military camp, where he was a well-known poker master. After retiring from the army, Icahn became a stockbroker and began his investment career as the \"Wolf of Wall Street\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/168b96e5d53577b54ee92ffaca60d1a8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Close-up of Icahn, Image Credit : Icahn: The Restless Billionaire, HBO</p><p>Since he first entered the stock exchange in 1961, Icahn has led numerous \"hostile takeovers\". He often bought a large number of stocks of optimistic companies, became a strategic shareholder of the company and interfered with the company's management decisions, prompting the stock price to rise rapidly in a short period of time.</p><p>To some extent, Icahn is Buffett's \"enemy\" from the root of his investment philosophy. Icahn doesn't care about the development of enterprises. Instead of accompanying the growth of enterprises as Buffett said, he only wants to make profits by buying and selling stocks.</p><p>In 1985, Icahn, who was optimistic about the oil industry, was ready to buy Philip Oil Company. At this time, another consortium offered a higher purchase price to \"cut off\" Philip, and Icahn, who was bound to win, also increased his horsepower to raise the price, but the other party still refused to give up, and even further raised the price, pressing Icahn step by step. After many times, Icahn suddenly sold all his shares and made hundreds of millions of dollars in this round of \"pushing up\".</p><p>And his investment in the stock of Occidental Petroleum also showed his true qualities as a \"wolf king\".</p><p>Back in 2019, Icahn and Buffett both held shares of Occidental Petroleum at the same time, but when Occidental Petroleum wanted to buy Anadarko Petroleum, the two disagreed.</p><p>Because the acquisition requires a large and expensive sum of capital ($10 billion), it has to be financed by debt, which Icahn objected to. Vicki Hollub, CEO of Occidental Petroleum, insisted on the deal, eventually raising money from Buffett in the way of preferred shares, promising an 8% annual Dividend with equity call options.</p><p>Icahn was very dissatisfied with Holub's approach. He believed that this move not only \"cheaper\" Buffett, but also completely unbeneficial to Occidental Petroleum.</p><p>Not long after, in March 2020, Occidental Petroleum, which was heavily indebted, was affected by the plunge in oil prices, and its stock price fell all the way. Buffett liquidated Occidental Petroleum. This situation made Icahn furious and turned out old scores again-if Holub hadn't insisted on going his own way and Buffett had \"helped the others\", why would Occidental Petroleum have fallen to this point?</p><p>It's useless to be angry. In order to remove Holub, this \"wolf king\" has been increasing his voice in Occidental Petroleum. In just a few months, he increased his shareholding ratio from 2.5% to 10% [14]. Although his recall plan ended in a settlement agreement, objectively Icahn also successfully bought a lot of chips at the low stock price.</p><p>Now, Occidental Petroleum has finally ushered in a soaring stock price. This speculator who \"doesn't care about the development of the enterprise, but only wants to make a profit by buying and selling stocks\" has also taken advantage of the trend to liquidate this stock recently and cash in on the gains.</p><p>Icahn's arbitrage departure at this time is not so much bearish on oil prices as finally retaliating against Occidental Petroleum for failing him.</p><p>Icahn after clearance, just like those who block you and still notify you<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">Weibo</a>Like netizens, I stated in a letter to the board of directors of Occidental Petroleum on March 6 that I have cleared my position, and the two representatives assigned to the board of directors due to the settlement agreement in 2020 will also resign and leave.</p><p>Anyway, for Icahn, there are many ways to express his views on oil prices. According to the Wall Street Journal, Icahn still holds about $500 million worth of Occidental Petroleum warrants. Besides, he also holds shares in other energy companies, such as Cheniere Energy (LNG), the largest producer of liquefied natural gas, and oil refiners<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVI\">CVR Energy</a>Corporation (CVI).</p><p>In short, Icahn, who wanted to interfere with the company's strategic decision-making by holding shares in Occidental Petroleum two years ago, didn't get what he wanted. Now, when the stock price rose, Buffett, who was \"not seeking each other\", ran into the market again. Icahn, who made a profit of 1 billion, decided to say goodbye to each other \"with the fruits of victory\", which is reasonable.</p><p>It can be said that if you don't leave at this time, when will you wait?</p><p><b>04. Epilogue</b></p><p>Oil is still the same oil, but there are a thousand investment value judgments in the eyes of a thousand fund managers.</p><p>In the first half of the game, \"Oil God\" Anduran was in full swing, \"Wolf King\" Icahn achieved fruitful results, and \"Stock God\" Buffett returned to the battlefield. One of them is a crude oil trading master who has won many battles, and the other pair is an old rival who has accumulated deep grievances against Western Petroleum. Betting, trading, holding, which one is higher and which one is lower, I'm afraid I have to extend my eyes to the second half.</p><p>After all, who can have the last laugh and not be eaten by beta in the end is the ultimate test of cyclical products for all investors.</p><p>Will oil prices continue to rise? No one knows the definitive answer. However, compared with oil, people in a relatively static closed loop may want to know more how much will the price of vegetables rise?</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1583835599575","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Oil gods, stock gods and wolf kings under soaring oil prices</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOil gods, stock gods and wolf kings under soaring oil prices\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">远川投资评论</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-31 10:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Another round of oil price adjustment is coming on March 31.</p><p>Previously, domestic oil prices have risen for five consecutive days due to the surge in crude oil. At the beginning of March, it was only four consecutive rises. \"92-octane gasoline is filled, and the debt is full; 95-octane gasoline is filled, and everything is lost; 98-octane gasoline is filled, and three generations of repayment!\" Before I could finish my fate of swiping the screen in the circle of friends, 95-octane gasoline officially entered the \"9 yuan era\" in the fifth round of rise.</p><p>At the moment, electric vehicle owners may be glad to buy early and enjoy it early, but if they don't buy it, they have to refuel. But the real bargain is the hedge funds that bet on rising oil prices.</p><p>U.S. foreign exchange hedge fund CFM's fund, which tracks the market signal index, has risen 15% this year, betting that rising energy prices have contributed most of its gains; The Diversified fund owned by London hedge fund Aspect Capital has risen 9% this year, mainly due to the rise in long oil and related commodity prices.</p><p>Among them, the most excited one is Pierre Andurand, the \"God of Crude Oil Trading\". According to the Financial Times, the Andurand Commodities Discretionary Enhanced Fund he manages has earned 109% in just two months. Also betting on soaring oil prices are \"Stock God\" Buffett and \"Wall Street Wolf King\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IKAN\">Icahn</a>。 This pair of sworn enemies who always meet on the narrow road, one is still against each other<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>The latter had already earned 1 billion and sold off the market.</p><p>Two years ago, the price of WTI crude oil futures in May fell to a minimum of-US $37.63/barrel. The panic caused by negative oil prices is still fresh in my memory. The backhand oil price has broken through the high of eight years ago, exceeding US $100/barrel.</p><p>So, in this epic diamond bottom rebound, who is the sharpest one?</p><p><b>01. Oil God Anduran: The war is in full swing</b></p><p>This time, Anduran was right again.</p><p>Just over two months have passed in 2022, and the Commodity Free Trading Enhancement Fund managed by Pierre Andurand, the \"God of Crude Oil Trading\", has risen 109% due to a bet on soaring oil prices. In an interview with Bloomberg on March 24, Anduran was still bullish on oil prices, believing that it would even hit $200 by the end of this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f68e42d61df008e14b35612c7ca1d42\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Anduran believes crude oil rising to $200 a barrel is just around the corner, Bloomberg</p><p>Before 2020, Anduran had already shown his talents. He made a huge profit of nearly $300 million by shorting \"negative oil prices\". In February, when Anduran was aggressively bearish on oil prices, people at that time might not have believed that the oil price of $55 would become negative, but Anduran, who spent ten hours a day studying virus data, firmly believed that once the epidemic broke out, a large number of blockade areas would appear all over the world, which would lead to a sharp drop in demand for crude oil and a sharp drop in oil prices [3]. Sure enough, two months later, the oil price fell to-$40, and Anduran's prediction was verified.</p><p>Speaking of it, the person who won such a big victory last time he lifted oil alone was still Anduran.</p><p>The head of Andurand Capital Management, the world's largest crude oil hedge fund, became famous as early as the 2008 financial crisis for accurately predicting the plunge in oil prices. At that time, he earned 210% of the returns.</p><p>However, at that time, the hedge fund founded by Anduran was still called Blue Glod, and before he was truly named the \"Oil God\", there was still a detour to go.</p><p>In 2007, at the age of 30, Anduran left Vitol, the world's largest oil trader, and set up his own hedge fund company. When he was in Vitol Group, he was called \"one of the most profitable traders\". However, Anduran, who was unruly and loves freedom by nature, left Vitol and became his own boss.</p><p>Anduran began to become famous in the second year after founding the company, but the start was too smooth, which may not be a good thing. After Anduran's entrepreneurial journey became a blockbuster in 2008, it began to show a decline of \"opening high and going low\". In the next three years or so, the funds he managed fell all the way, and the income turned from positive to negative until April 2012, Blue Glod, which had no improvement, had to close its doors to thank customers.</p><p>Failure didn't depress Anduran. After only eight months, he chose to gamble his name again. In February 2013, he surfaced into the hedge fund world and founded Andurand Capital Management. He unabashedly named directly after his own name, showing greater determination than the last time.</p><p>And Anduran didn't disappoint investors who believed in him again. In 2014, Anduran gained a 38% yield by betting on the plunge in oil prices. In 2016, he gained a 22% yield by betting on the rebound in oil prices, wiping out the fluctuations of oil.</p><p>Anduran, who is extremely talented in crude oil trading, often makes a lot of money in the violent fluctuations of oil prices. Because of this, many people only regard him as a \"lucky man of the times\", a \"bold maniac\" who can succeed in oil and lose oil. After all, who can always predict things like God?</p><p>Anduran, however, thinks otherwise. He said that he was not a \"trade addict\" and never blindly made heavy bets. Every \"big move\" has undergone in-depth research and rigorous analysis. And Anduran's \"grasping the big and letting go of the small\", going deep into the contradiction between supply and demand of a variety of crude oil and the conversion between long and short, has indeed earned rich returns for his investors-since 2008, the cumulative income of funds managed by Anduran has increased nearly tenfold.</p><p>And this time, the heavy bet on the soaring oil price is just a reappearance of Anduran's \"betting\" trading style. He just did what he has always been best at in the circle of competence.</p><p><b>02. Warren Buffett: Comeback</b></p><p>Compared with Anduran's easy acquisition, Buffett's investment in oil is a little bumpy.</p><p>According to the data, Buffett began to re-build his position in Occidental Petroleum on March 1 this year, and increased his position twice in a row on March 4 and March 11, buying Occidental Petroleum as his ninth largest holding. The purchase cost ranged from $46.76 to $56.60 per share. As of March 21, Occidental Petroleum's share price had risen to $60.96, up 30% from Buffett's first purchase.</p><p>The reason why he said to re-open the position is mainly because he had fallen before. Judging from Buffett's historical holdings in Occidental Petroleum, his previous operations on this stock can be described as \"sold before dawn and bought after the price increase.\" So far, it is difficult for Buffett to say that he has made a lot of money in Occidental Petroleum.</p><p>As early as 2019, Occidental Petroleum wanted to acquire<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APC\">Anadarko Oil</a>The company (Anadarko Petroleum) raised funds from Buffett in the form of preferred shares. In addition to paying an annual Dividend of 8%, it also came with a call option on common stocks, and the strike price was $62.5. In other words, in addition to paying dividends to Buffett, Occidental Petroleum will also repay part of his common stock. It can be seen from the changes in Buffett's positions in 2019 that he did increase his holdings of Occidental Petroleum.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bbbc39c687e488620cf82d09e84d818\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"659\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, what Buffett, who is full of confidence, is waiting for is the black swan of the epidemic, which caused oil prices to plummet in 2020. At that time, Occidental Petroleum was in a financial crisis due to the acquisition of Anadarko Petroleum, and its stock price fell from more than 40 US dollars at the beginning of the year to 8.8 US dollars at the end of the first quarter. Faced with such a situation, Buffett had no choice but to sell Occidental Petroleum's shares. By the second quarter of 2020, Occidental Petroleum was no longer in Buffett's holdings.</p><p>Regarding this failed investment, Buffett said in an interview that he did misjudge the trend of oil prices.</p><p>Slightly surprisingly, more than a year later, Buffett rebought Occidental Petroleum, which was originally sold for about $15, at a price of about $50, and quickly admitted his mistake.</p><p>Buffett, who has always been known for his value investing and is committed to finding good business, does not prefer the energy industry with strong cycles and high beta. As a typical cyclical stock, why does Occidental Petroleum appear in Buffett's holdings many times?</p><p>According to his past investment experience, the consumption-like logic of stable value-added may be the main reason why Buffett invests in cyclical stocks [5]. Specifically, Occidental Petroleum has a stable competitive landscape and high Dividend payments.</p><p>As the fourth largest oil and gas company in the United States, Occidental Petroleum has experienced large-scale mergers and acquisitions in the U.S. shale oil industry, and the industry competition landscape has stabilized. At the same time, Occidental Petroleum has maintained stable Dividend payments even during the financial crisis and shale revolution. Currently, with the rise in oil prices, Occidental Petroleum's financial situation has also been repaired, which can provide stable financial support for Dividend payments.</p><p>In fact, Buffett has long \"taken a fancy\" to Occidental Petroleum, and the purchase of preferred shares in 2019 is the best proof. It's just that the drastic changes in the external environment in 2020 have caused Buffett to do some operations that seem unwise now, and to stop excessive losses. But what he lost in 2020 was only the money from the decline of common stocks, and Buffett still enjoyed preferred shares's dividends.</p><p>Now that oil prices are rising, Buffett once again sees the opportunity to buy Occidental Petroleum. Even if he pays a higher cost than before, the \"stock god\" is still willing to make a comeback.</p><p><b>03. Icahn, the Wolf King: Take it as soon as you see it</b></p><p>Just as Buffett, the \"stock god\", increased his position in Occidental Petroleum, on the other hand, Icahn, the \"Wolf King of Wall Street\", had sold all the remaining shares of Occidental Petroleum and earned $1 billion.</p><p>Born in 1936 in Queens, New York, Icahn was called \"the most successful speculator on the planet\" by Fortune. After dropping out of new york University, this Jew joined the military camp, where he was a well-known poker master. After retiring from the army, Icahn became a stockbroker and began his investment career as the \"Wolf of Wall Street\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/168b96e5d53577b54ee92ffaca60d1a8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Close-up of Icahn, Image Credit : Icahn: The Restless Billionaire, HBO</p><p>Since he first entered the stock exchange in 1961, Icahn has led numerous \"hostile takeovers\". He often bought a large number of stocks of optimistic companies, became a strategic shareholder of the company and interfered with the company's management decisions, prompting the stock price to rise rapidly in a short period of time.</p><p>To some extent, Icahn is Buffett's \"enemy\" from the root of his investment philosophy. Icahn doesn't care about the development of enterprises. Instead of accompanying the growth of enterprises as Buffett said, he only wants to make profits by buying and selling stocks.</p><p>In 1985, Icahn, who was optimistic about the oil industry, was ready to buy Philip Oil Company. At this time, another consortium offered a higher purchase price to \"cut off\" Philip, and Icahn, who was bound to win, also increased his horsepower to raise the price, but the other party still refused to give up, and even further raised the price, pressing Icahn step by step. After many times, Icahn suddenly sold all his shares and made hundreds of millions of dollars in this round of \"pushing up\".</p><p>And his investment in the stock of Occidental Petroleum also showed his true qualities as a \"wolf king\".</p><p>Back in 2019, Icahn and Buffett both held shares of Occidental Petroleum at the same time, but when Occidental Petroleum wanted to buy Anadarko Petroleum, the two disagreed.</p><p>Because the acquisition requires a large and expensive sum of capital ($10 billion), it has to be financed by debt, which Icahn objected to. Vicki Hollub, CEO of Occidental Petroleum, insisted on the deal, eventually raising money from Buffett in the way of preferred shares, promising an 8% annual Dividend with equity call options.</p><p>Icahn was very dissatisfied with Holub's approach. He believed that this move not only \"cheaper\" Buffett, but also completely unbeneficial to Occidental Petroleum.</p><p>Not long after, in March 2020, Occidental Petroleum, which was heavily indebted, was affected by the plunge in oil prices, and its stock price fell all the way. Buffett liquidated Occidental Petroleum. This situation made Icahn furious and turned out old scores again-if Holub hadn't insisted on going his own way and Buffett had \"helped the others\", why would Occidental Petroleum have fallen to this point?</p><p>It's useless to be angry. In order to remove Holub, this \"wolf king\" has been increasing his voice in Occidental Petroleum. In just a few months, he increased his shareholding ratio from 2.5% to 10% [14]. Although his recall plan ended in a settlement agreement, objectively Icahn also successfully bought a lot of chips at the low stock price.</p><p>Now, Occidental Petroleum has finally ushered in a soaring stock price. This speculator who \"doesn't care about the development of the enterprise, but only wants to make a profit by buying and selling stocks\" has also taken advantage of the trend to liquidate this stock recently and cash in on the gains.</p><p>Icahn's arbitrage departure at this time is not so much bearish on oil prices as finally retaliating against Occidental Petroleum for failing him.</p><p>Icahn after clearance, just like those who block you and still notify you<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">Weibo</a>Like netizens, I stated in a letter to the board of directors of Occidental Petroleum on March 6 that I have cleared my position, and the two representatives assigned to the board of directors due to the settlement agreement in 2020 will also resign and leave.</p><p>Anyway, for Icahn, there are many ways to express his views on oil prices. According to the Wall Street Journal, Icahn still holds about $500 million worth of Occidental Petroleum warrants. Besides, he also holds shares in other energy companies, such as Cheniere Energy (LNG), the largest producer of liquefied natural gas, and oil refiners<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVI\">CVR Energy</a>Corporation (CVI).</p><p>In short, Icahn, who wanted to interfere with the company's strategic decision-making by holding shares in Occidental Petroleum two years ago, didn't get what he wanted. Now, when the stock price rose, Buffett, who was \"not seeking each other\", ran into the market again. Icahn, who made a profit of 1 billion, decided to say goodbye to each other \"with the fruits of victory\", which is reasonable.</p><p>It can be said that if you don't leave at this time, when will you wait?</p><p><b>04. Epilogue</b></p><p>Oil is still the same oil, but there are a thousand investment value judgments in the eyes of a thousand fund managers.</p><p>In the first half of the game, \"Oil God\" Anduran was in full swing, \"Wolf King\" Icahn achieved fruitful results, and \"Stock God\" Buffett returned to the battlefield. One of them is a crude oil trading master who has won many battles, and the other pair is an old rival who has accumulated deep grievances against Western Petroleum. Betting, trading, holding, which one is higher and which one is lower, I'm afraid I have to extend my eyes to the second half.</p><p>After all, who can have the last laugh and not be eaten by beta in the end is the ultimate test of cyclical products for all investors.</p><p>Will oil prices continue to rise? No one knows the definitive answer. However, compared with oil, people in a relatively static closed loop may want to know more how much will the price of vegetables rise?</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/AI50006ms1hQjSTCoXTd6w\">远川投资评论</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef375710aa7a4298de56c8827d8139df","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/AI50006ms1hQjSTCoXTd6w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109157751","content_text":"3月31日又一轮油价调整就要来了。此前由于原油飙升,国内油价已经五连涨。3月初还只是四连涨的时候,“92号汽油加满,负债满满;95号汽油加满,倾家荡产;98号汽油加满,三代还款!”的段子,还没来得及完成自己在朋友圈刷屏的命运,95号汽油就又在第五轮的上涨里,正式进入了“9元时代”。此刻电动车车主们,或许在庆幸早买早享受、不买要加油。但真正赚到了大便宜的,还是押注了油价上涨的对冲基金们。美国外汇对冲基金CFM旗下追踪市场信号指数的基金今年以来上涨了15%,押注能源价格上涨为其贡献了收益大头;而伦敦对冲基金 Aspect Capital 旗下的多元投资基金(Diversified fund)今年以来上涨了9%,主要原因也无外乎做多石油及其相关商品价格的上涨。这其中,最兴奋不已的莫过于“原油交易之神”皮埃尔·安杜兰(Pierre Andurand)。据《金融时报》透露,他管理的商品自由交易增强基金(Andurand Commodities Discretionary Enhanced Fund)在短短两个月时间里已经赚取了109%的收益。同样押注油价飙升的,还有“股神”巴菲特和“华尔街狼王”伊坎。这对狭路总相逢的死对头,一个还在对西方石油的疯狂加仓,后者已经狂赚10亿后抛售离场。两年前,WTI5月原油期货价格跌到最低-37.63美元/桶,负油价带来的恐慌还记忆犹新,油价反手已经突破了8年前的高点,超过100美元/桶。那么,在这波史诗级的钻石底大反弹里,谁是最敏锐的那一个呢?01、「油神」安杜兰:大战正酣这一次,安杜兰又押对了。2022年才过去两个多月,“原油交易之神” 皮埃尔·安杜兰(Pierre Andurand)管理的商品自由交易增强基金便因押中油价飙升而上涨了109%。在彭博3月24日的采访中,安杜兰依然看多油价,认为到今年年底甚至会触及200美元。安杜兰认为原油涨到200美元一桶已经近在眼前,Bloomberg此前的2020年,安杜兰已经大显身手。他因为做空“负油价”大赚近3亿美元。在安杜兰大举看空油价的2月份,当时的人们也许怎么样都不会相信55美元的油价会变成负数,但每天花十小时研究病毒资料的安杜兰则坚定地认为,一旦疫情爆发,世界各地将会出现大量封锁区,而这会导致原油的需求量骤减,油价一定会暴跌[3]。果不其然,两个月后,油价跌到了-40美元,安杜兰的预言得以验证。说起来,上一次这么单吊石油还大获全胜的人,依然还是安杜兰。这位全球最大原油对冲基金 Andurand Capital Management 的掌门人,早在2008年的金融危机中,便因精准预测油价暴跌而“一战成名”,那一次,他赚取了210%的收益。只不过,那个时候,安杜兰创办的对冲基金还叫 Blue Glod ,而在他真正被封为“油神”之前,也还有一段弯路要走。2007年,30岁的安杜兰离开了全球最大石油交易商——维多集团(Vitol),创立了属于自己的对冲基金公司。在维多集团时,他被称为是“最能赚钱的交易员之一”,不过,生性不羁爱自由的安杜兰还是离开了维多,自己给自己当老板。创立公司后的第二年安杜兰便开始名声大噪,但开局太顺利,或许不是什么好事。安杜兰的创业之路在2008年一鸣惊人后,开始呈现“高开低走”的颓势,接下来三年多的时间里,他管理的基金一路下跌,收益由正转负,直到2012年4月,毫无起色的 Blue Glod 只好关门谢客。失败没有让安杜兰消沉,仅仅过了八个月,他就选择「赌上自己的名字」再来一次。2013年2月,他浮出对冲基金界,创办了 Andurand Capital Management。他毫不掩饰地直接用自己的名字来命名,显示出比上一次更大的决心。而安杜兰也没有让再信他一次的投资者失望。2014年,安杜兰押中油价暴跌获得了38%的收益率,2016年,他又因押中油价反弹获得了22%的收益率,把石油这一个品种的波动吃干抹净。在原油交易上极具天赋的安杜兰,常常能在油价的剧烈波动中赚得盆满钵满,正因如此,不少人只把他当成一个“时代幸运儿”,一个成也石油、还会败也石油的“大胆狂徒”。毕竟,谁能永远料事如神呢?然而安杜兰却不这么认为。他说自己并不是“交易瘾君子”,也从不盲目下重注,每一次“大手笔”都经过了深入的研究和严密的分析。而安杜兰的“抓大放小”,深入原油一个品种的供需矛盾、多空转换,也的确为他的投资者们赚取了丰厚的回报——2008年至今,安杜兰管理的基金累计收益翻了近十倍。而这一次对油价飙升的重押,也不过是安杜兰“下赌注式”交易风格的再现,他只是在能力圈里又做了一直以来最擅长的事。02、「股神」巴菲特:卷土重来比起安杜兰的信手拈来,巴菲特在石油上的投资就稍显坎坷了。资料显示,巴菲特今年3月1日开始重新建仓西方石油,并在3月4日、3月11日连续两次加仓,将西方石油买成了自己的第九大重仓股,买入成本从每股46.76美元到56.60美元不等。截至3月21日,西方石油的股价已经涨到了60.96美元,距巴菲特第一次买入时上涨了30%。之所以说「重新建仓」,主要是因为他之前曾经摔过一跤。从巴菲特对西方石油的历史持仓来看,他此前在这只股票上的操作可谓是“卖在了黎明前,买在了涨价后”,到目前为止,巴菲特在西方石油上很难说赚到了大钱。早在2019年,西方石油要收购阿纳达科石油公司(Anadarko Petroleum),便以优先股的形式向巴菲特募资,除了支付8%的年股息,还附带有普通股的认购期权,执行价格为62.5美元。也就是说,西方石油除了要对巴菲特分红派息外还会偿还他一部分的普通股。而从巴菲特2019年的持仓变化中可以看出,他的确对西方石油进行了增持。然而,信心十足的巴菲特等来的却是疫情这只黑天鹅,让油价在2020年遭遇了暴跌。彼时的西方石油又因收购阿纳达科石油而陷入财务危机,股价从年初的40多美元一路跌到了一季度末的8.8美元。面对如此状况,巴菲特只好卖掉了西方石油的股票,到2020年二季度,巴菲特的持仓中便已不见西方石油的身影。对于这笔失败的投资,巴菲特在接受采访时表示,自己的确是误判了油价走势。稍显意外的是,一年多后,巴菲特却又以50美元左右的价格重新买入了当初15美元左右卖出的西方石油,迅速认错。向来以价值投资著称、致力于寻找好生意的巴菲特,按理说并不偏好强周期、高beta的能源行业,而西方石油作为典型的周期股,为什么屡次出现在巴菲特的持仓中呢?根据其过往的投资经历推断,稳定增值的类消费逻辑或许是巴菲特投资周期股的主要原因[5]。具体放在西方石油身上,是它拥有稳定的竞争格局和较高的股息支付。西方石油作为美国第四大石油和天然气公司,在经历了美页岩油行业大规模并购重组后,行业竞争格局趋于稳定,同时,西方石油即使在金融危机和页岩革命期间也维持了稳定的股息支付,而当前,伴随着油价上涨,西方石油的财务状况也得以修复,更能为股息支付提供稳定的资金支持。其实,巴菲特早就“看中了”西方石油,2019年买入优先股便是最好的证明。只是2020年外部环境的剧烈变化让巴菲特做了一些现在看来并不明智的操作,还止过损。但是2020年亏的只是普通股下跌的钱,而巴菲特仍享受了优先股的分红派息。如今油价上涨,巴菲特再次看到了西方石油的买入时机,就算付出比之前更高的成本,“股神”依然愿意卷土重来。03、「狼王」伊坎:见好就收就在“股神”巴菲特加仓西方石油之际,另一边,“华尔街狼王”伊坎已全部抛售西方石油剩余股票,赚取了10亿美元。1936年出生于纽约皇后区的伊坎,被《财富》称为“这个星球上最成功的投机者”。这位犹太人从纽约大学辍学后便加入了军营,在那里,他是小有名气的扑克牌高手。退伍后,伊坎便成为了一名股票经纪人,开始了他“华尔街之狼”的投资生涯。伊坎的特写,图片来源:Icahn: The Restless Billionaire,HBO从1961年第一次走进证券交易所至今,伊坎主导了无数次“恶意收购”事件,他经常大量买入看好企业的股票,成为该公司的战略股东并干涉公司的管理决策,促使股价在短期内快速上涨。某种程度上,伊坎从投资理念的根源上,就是巴菲特的“敌人”。伊坎并不关心企业发展,与其像巴菲特说的那样陪伴企业成长,他只想通过买卖股票获利。1985年,看好石油行业的伊坎准备收购菲力浦石油公司,此时,另一家财团开出了更高的收购价格想要“截胡”菲力浦,而势在必得的伊坎也加大马力进行提价,但对方依然不肯放弃,甚至又进一步抬高了价格,对伊坎步步紧逼,就在这样多次来回之后,伊坎猛然将手上的股票全部卖出,在这轮股价“推涨”中赚了上亿美元。而他在西方石油这只股票的投资上,也尽显“狼王”本色。早在2019年,伊坎和巴菲特罕见地同时都持有了西方石油的股票,但当西方石油想要收购阿纳达科石油公司(Anadarko Petroleum)时,两人却出现了分歧。由于收购需要一大笔昂贵的资金(100亿美元)就得进行债务融资,伊坎对此提出了反对意见。西方石油的首席执行官薇姬·霍鲁布(Vicki Hollub)执意要达成这笔交易,最终以优先股的方式向巴菲特募资,承诺8%的年股息并附带股权认购期权。对于霍鲁布的这个做法,伊坎十分不满,他认为此举不但“便宜了”巴菲特,对西方石油来说也完全没有好处。不久之后的2020年3月,负债累累的西方石油又受到油价暴跌的影响,股价一路下跌,巴菲特清仓了西方石油。此情此景让伊坎愤怒不已,再次翻出旧账——要不是霍鲁布一意孤行,巴菲特“助纣为虐”,西方石油何至于沦落至此?生气没用,为了能够罢免霍鲁布,这位“狼王”一路提高自己在西方石油上的话语权,在短短几个月里,就把持股比例从2.5%提升到了10%[14]。虽然他的罢免计划最后以和解协议告终,但客观上伊坎也成功地在股价低位抄底了一大堆筹码。如今,西方石油终于迎来股价飙涨,这位“不关心企业发展,只想通过买卖股票获利”的投机派也顺势在近期清仓了这只股票,兑现收益。伊坎此时的套利离场,与其说是看空油价,倒不如说是终于报复了西方石油曾经辜负了他。清仓后的伊坎,就像那些拉黑你还要通知你的微博网友一样,在3月6日致西方石油董事会的信中表示,我清仓了,而且2020年因为和解协议而安排到董事会里的两位代表,也会辞职离开。反正对于伊坎来说,表达他对油价看法的方式也很多。据《华尔街日报》的报道,伊坎目前仍持有约5亿美元价值的西方石油公司认股权证。除此之外,他还拿着其它能源公司的股票,比如液化天然气最大生产商Cheniere能源公司(LNG),以及炼油商CVR能源公司(CVI)。总之,两年前想通过持股西方石油干涉该公司战略决策的伊坎并没有如愿以偿,如今好不容易等到股价上涨,“不相为谋”的巴菲特又跑步进场,获利10亿的伊坎决定“揣着胜利的果实”互道一声拜拜,也就在情理之中了。正可谓,此时不走,更待何时?04、尾声石油还是同样的石油,只是一千个基金经理眼中有一千种投资价值判断。在游戏的上半场,“油神”安杜兰激战正酣,“狼王”伊坎硕果累累,“股神”巴菲特则重回战场。他们一个是屡战屡胜的原油交易大神,另一对则是在西方石油上「积怨已深」的老对手。押注、交易、持有,孰高孰低,恐怕还要再把眼光拉长到下半场。毕竟谁能笑到最后,最终不被贝塔反噬,是周期品对所有投资者的终极考验。油价还会继续上涨吗?没人知道确定的答案。不过,相比石油,处在相对静止闭环中的人或许更想知道的,菜价还会涨多少?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":788,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9031894919,"gmtCreate":1646495742980,"gmtModify":1676534134887,"author":{"id":"4087300025751020","authorId":"4087300025751020","name":"老八公","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27256ede8324832365cde987fa4cf48","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087300025751020","idStr":"4087300025751020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9031894919","repostId":"2217767460","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2217767460","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1646465600,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2217767460?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-05 15:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Berkshire Hathaway increases its position in Occidental Petroleum","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2217767460","media":"新浪财经","summary":"亿万富豪沃伦·巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔哈撒韦增加了对传统能源巨头西方石油的投资比例,公开文件显示该公司今年买入了近3,000万股西方石油。 当地时间周五公布的一份监管文件显示,这些股票是伯克希尔哈撒韦在今年买入,因此该公司持有的西方石油股票总数量达到1.137亿股,西方石油目前总股本在9.34亿股左右。统计数据显示,伯克希尔哈撒韦目前持有占比约11.2%西方石油普通股,这笔投资目前价值约为64亿美元。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Billionaire Warren Buffett's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway (BRK.A.US) Increases Stake in Traditional Energy Giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>(OXY.US) investment ratio, public documents show that the company has bought nearly 30 million shares of Occidental Petroleum this year. A regulatory filing released on Friday local time showed that these stocks were bought by Berkshire Hathaway this year, bringing the total number of Occidental Petroleum shares held by the company to 113.7 million shares. Occidental Petroleum's current total share capital is 934 million shares or so. Statistics show that Berkshire Hathaway currently holds approximately 11.2% of Occidental Petroleum's common stock, and this investment is currently worth approximately US $6.4 billion.</p><p>Buffett had invested $10 billion back in 2019, when he helped Occidental Petroleum acquire<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APC\">Anadarko Oil</a>Company (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEUA\">Anadarko Petroleum Corp</a>.)。 It is reported that almost all of the more than 83 million Occidental Petroleum shares held by Berkshire are linked to the warrants obtained in the transaction, which have been generating payments.</p><p>It is understood that the news was announced after the U.S. stock market closed on Friday. Crude oil prices rose all the way yesterday evening, with an increase of more than 6%. Driven by this main positive factor, Occidental Petroleum rose by as much as 17.59% during the trading hours yesterday and nearly 2% after hours.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Berkshire Hathaway increases its position in Occidental Petroleum</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBerkshire Hathaway increases its position in Occidental Petroleum\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-05 15:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Billionaire Warren Buffett's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway (BRK.A.US) Increases Stake in Traditional Energy Giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>(OXY.US) investment ratio, public documents show that the company has bought nearly 30 million shares of Occidental Petroleum this year. A regulatory filing released on Friday local time showed that these stocks were bought by Berkshire Hathaway this year, bringing the total number of Occidental Petroleum shares held by the company to 113.7 million shares. Occidental Petroleum's current total share capital is 934 million shares or so. Statistics show that Berkshire Hathaway currently holds approximately 11.2% of Occidental Petroleum's common stock, and this investment is currently worth approximately US $6.4 billion.</p><p>Buffett had invested $10 billion back in 2019, when he helped Occidental Petroleum acquire<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APC\">Anadarko Oil</a>Company (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEUA\">Anadarko Petroleum Corp</a>.)。 It is reported that almost all of the more than 83 million Occidental Petroleum shares held by Berkshire are linked to the warrants obtained in the transaction, which have been generating payments.</p><p>It is understood that the news was announced after the U.S. stock market closed on Friday. Crude oil prices rose all the way yesterday evening, with an increase of more than 6%. Driven by this main positive factor, Occidental Petroleum rose by as much as 17.59% during the trading hours yesterday and nearly 2% after hours.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/ggscyd/2022-03-05/doc-imcwipih6744786.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c94afdb1600dc1c5d88c57e11919166c","relate_stocks":{"BK4176":"多领域控股","BK4201":"综合性石油与天然气企业","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","OXY":"西方石油"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/ggscyd/2022-03-05/doc-imcwipih6744786.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2217767460","content_text":"亿万富豪沃伦·巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔哈撒韦(BRK.A.US)增加了对传统能源巨头西方石油(OXY.US)的投资比例,公开文件显示该公司今年买入了近3,000万股西方石油。当地时间周五公布的一份监管文件显示,这些股票是伯克希尔哈撒韦在今年买入,因此该公司持有的西方石油股票总数量达到1.137亿股,西方石油目前总股本在9.34亿股左右。统计数据显示,伯克希尔哈撒韦目前持有占比约11.2%西方石油普通股,这笔投资目前价值约为64亿美元。巴菲特早在2019年就已投资100亿美元,当时他帮助西方石油公司收购了阿纳达科石油公司(Anadarko Petroleum Corp.)。据悉,伯克希尔所持有的超过8300万股西方石油股票,几乎全部与该项交易中获得的认股权证挂钩,这些认股权证一直在产生支付款项。据了解,该消息于周五美股盘后公布。原油价格昨日晚间一路上行,涨幅超过6%,在这一主要利好因素带动之下西方石油昨日在交易时间段涨幅高达17.59%,盘后涨幅接近2%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.6,"OXY":0.6,"BRK.A":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":449,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914858397,"gmtCreate":1665242217219,"gmtModify":1676537577449,"author":{"id":"4087300025751020","authorId":"4087300025751020","name":"老八公","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27256ede8324832365cde987fa4cf48","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087300025751020","idStr":"4087300025751020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914858397","repostId":"1162298976","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9063192673,"gmtCreate":1651420883427,"gmtModify":1676534904039,"author":{"id":"4087300025751020","authorId":"4087300025751020","name":"老八公","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27256ede8324832365cde987fa4cf48","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087300025751020","idStr":"4087300025751020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9063192673","repostId":"1190110506","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":613,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9011448972,"gmtCreate":1648914935709,"gmtModify":1676534421549,"author":{"id":"4087300025751020","authorId":"4087300025751020","name":"老八公","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27256ede8324832365cde987fa4cf48","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087300025751020","idStr":"4087300025751020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9011448972","repostId":"1102580279","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9010906743,"gmtCreate":1648220397233,"gmtModify":1676534318880,"author":{"id":"4087300025751020","authorId":"4087300025751020","name":"老八公","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27256ede8324832365cde987fa4cf48","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087300025751020","idStr":"4087300025751020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9010906743","repostId":"1194213757","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194213757","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648207867,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194213757?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-25 19:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"One picture to understand | Fed officials' latest statement on May rate hike of 50 basis points","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194213757","media":"同花顺","summary":"当前表态的5位官员全部对5月加息50个基点持开放态度。当前美国通胀仍处于近40年来高位,加上俄乌战争推高原油等大宗商品价格,使得美联储对抗通胀的任务愈发艰巨。而就是在这种背景下,鲍威尔周一在为华盛顿哥","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>All five officials who have expressed their position at present are open to the 50 basis point rate hike in May.</b>At present, inflation in the United States is still at a high level in nearly 40 years, and the Russia-Ukraine war has pushed up the prices of crude oil and other commodities, making the Fed's task of fighting inflation more and more arduous. It is against this background that Powell said in a speech prepared for an economic seminar in Washington, D.C. on Monday that the Fed will take necessary measures to ensure the restoration of price stability. If it is deemed necessary, the Fed will prepare a 50 basis point rate hike, which is only a week after the Fed's rate hike in March.</p><p>In Powell's speech on Monday, one small detail was particularly eye-catching: After he finished his formal speech, the host asked Powell under what circumstances the Fed would not rate hike by 50 basis points in May. Powell's answer was, \"What will stop us? No\". At the same time, just this week, a group of senior officials of the Federal Reserve expressed intensive statements. So far, five officials, including Powell, are open to the May rate hike.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9310f8ed234b1b57a54e320e495f6aec\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition, according to the latest data from the Fed Watchtool tool, the market expects that the probability of the Fed's rate hike of 50 basis points in May has reached 70.5%, which is basically consistent with the statement of Fed officials.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9461e82e78cc8ef4ea624ae28dafbe8e\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>What is particularly noteworthy is that some officials believe it is necessary for the Federal Reserve to start shrinking its balance sheet at the next meeting. Powell also reiterated that action to cut the balance sheet \"may begin as early as the next May meeting, but we haven't made a decision yet.\"</p><p>This indicates that in the most extreme case, the next meeting of the Federal Reserve may simultaneously blow up a \"double hawkish storm\" of 50 basis points of rate hike plus the announcement of balance sheet reduction.</p><p>As the Federal Reserve is now focusing more and more on resisting high inflation, and even begins to choose a more aggressive tightening route at the expense of economic growth, the U.S. bond yield curve is now increasingly pointing to the possibility of a recession.</p><p>The yield spread between 10-year and two-year U.S. Treasuries has narrowed by about 60 basis points since the beginning of the year. If the two are inverted, it is usually regarded as a precursor to a six-to 24-month recession.</p><p>As far as Powell is concerned, he is still optimistic that the economy can make a soft landing and reach a more sustainable growth level-that is, the inflation rate will drop from the current 7.9% to the target level slightly above 2%, and the economy will not shrink. Designing such a soft landing is still possible, Powell said, noting that the Fed has achieved soft landings three times in the past 60 years.</p><p>However, some analysts are currently saying that if interest rates change according to the path predicted by the Fed, the economy is expected to eventually tend to fall into recession-rather than the \"soft landing\" that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hopes.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"THS","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>One picture to understand | Fed officials' latest statement on May rate hike of 50 basis points</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOne picture to understand | Fed officials' latest statement on May rate hike of 50 basis points\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">同花顺</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-25 19:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>All five officials who have expressed their position at present are open to the 50 basis point rate hike in May.</b>At present, inflation in the United States is still at a high level in nearly 40 years, and the Russia-Ukraine war has pushed up the prices of crude oil and other commodities, making the Fed's task of fighting inflation more and more arduous. It is against this background that Powell said in a speech prepared for an economic seminar in Washington, D.C. on Monday that the Fed will take necessary measures to ensure the restoration of price stability. If it is deemed necessary, the Fed will prepare a 50 basis point rate hike, which is only a week after the Fed's rate hike in March.</p><p>In Powell's speech on Monday, one small detail was particularly eye-catching: After he finished his formal speech, the host asked Powell under what circumstances the Fed would not rate hike by 50 basis points in May. Powell's answer was, \"What will stop us? No\". At the same time, just this week, a group of senior officials of the Federal Reserve expressed intensive statements. So far, five officials, including Powell, are open to the May rate hike.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9310f8ed234b1b57a54e320e495f6aec\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition, according to the latest data from the Fed Watchtool tool, the market expects that the probability of the Fed's rate hike of 50 basis points in May has reached 70.5%, which is basically consistent with the statement of Fed officials.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9461e82e78cc8ef4ea624ae28dafbe8e\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>What is particularly noteworthy is that some officials believe it is necessary for the Federal Reserve to start shrinking its balance sheet at the next meeting. Powell also reiterated that action to cut the balance sheet \"may begin as early as the next May meeting, but we haven't made a decision yet.\"</p><p>This indicates that in the most extreme case, the next meeting of the Federal Reserve may simultaneously blow up a \"double hawkish storm\" of 50 basis points of rate hike plus the announcement of balance sheet reduction.</p><p>As the Federal Reserve is now focusing more and more on resisting high inflation, and even begins to choose a more aggressive tightening route at the expense of economic growth, the U.S. bond yield curve is now increasingly pointing to the possibility of a recession.</p><p>The yield spread between 10-year and two-year U.S. Treasuries has narrowed by about 60 basis points since the beginning of the year. If the two are inverted, it is usually regarded as a precursor to a six-to 24-month recession.</p><p>As far as Powell is concerned, he is still optimistic that the economy can make a soft landing and reach a more sustainable growth level-that is, the inflation rate will drop from the current 7.9% to the target level slightly above 2%, and the economy will not shrink. Designing such a soft landing is still possible, Powell said, noting that the Fed has achieved soft landings three times in the past 60 years.</p><p>However, some analysts are currently saying that if interest rates change according to the path predicted by the Fed, the economy is expected to eventually tend to fall into recession-rather than the \"soft landing\" that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hopes.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://wzq.tenpay.com/mp/v2/index.html?stat_data=4003000011#/information/detail?id=SN202203251533577b834066&shareSource=fromApp&zxtype=1&appVersion=undefined\">同花顺</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09a7b30204158feaaaf0f4efc19f31f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wzq.tenpay.com/mp/v2/index.html?stat_data=4003000011#/information/detail?id=SN202203251533577b834066&shareSource=fromApp&zxtype=1&appVersion=undefined","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194213757","content_text":"当前表态的5位官员全部对5月加息50个基点持开放态度。当前美国通胀仍处于近40年来高位,加上俄乌战争推高原油等大宗商品价格,使得美联储对抗通胀的任务愈发艰巨。而就是在这种背景下,鲍威尔周一在为华盛顿哥伦比亚特区一场经济研讨会准备的演讲稿中表示,美联储将采取必要措施,确保恢复价格稳定。如果认为有必要,则该联储准备加息50个基点,这离3月美联储加息仅过去一周的时间。在周一鲍威尔的讲话中,一个小细节尤为引人瞩目:在他结束正式讲话后,主持人询问鲍威尔什么情况下会令美联储在5月份不加息50基点。鲍威尔的回答是,“什么会阻止我们?没有”。同时就在这周,美联储一众高官密集表态,截至目前,包括鲍威尔在内五名官员对5月加息均持开放态度。另外,根据Fed Watchtool工具最新数据显示,市场预期美联储5月加息50基点的概率已经达到70.5%,这与美联储官员表态基本一致。而尤为值得注意的是,部分官员认为在下一次会议上美联储有必要开始缩减资产负债表。鲍威尔也重申了削减资产负债表的行动“可能最早在下一次5月份会议上开始,但现在我们还没有做出决定。”这预示着在最为极端的情况下,美联储下次会议可能同时刮起加息50个基点外加宣布缩减资产负债表的“双重鹰派风暴”。而随着美联储如今将越来越多的重心投向了抵御高通胀之下,甚至不惜以牺牲经济增速为代价地开始选择更为激进的紧缩路线,美债收益率曲线如今也愈发指向了经济衰退的可能性。自今年年初以来,10年期和两年期美债之间的收益率差已经缩小了约60个基点。若两者出现倒挂,通常被视为经济进入六至24个月衰退的前兆。就鲍威尔而言,其仍然乐观认为经济可以软着陆,达到较为可持续的成长水平――即通胀率从目前的7.9%降到略高于2%的目标水平,同时经济也不会出现萎缩。鲍威尔说,设计这种软着陆仍视有可能的,他指出过去60年来美联储曾三次实现了软着陆。不过,一些分析师当前表示,如果利率按照美联储预测的路径变化,经济最终料将倾向于陷入衰退――而不是美联储主席鲍威尔希望的“软着陆”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":621,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9032335827,"gmtCreate":1647275491898,"gmtModify":1676534211135,"author":{"id":"4087300025751020","authorId":"4087300025751020","name":"老八公","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27256ede8324832365cde987fa4cf48","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087300025751020","idStr":"4087300025751020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9032335827","repostId":"1191557560","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191557560","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业,总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1647238446,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191557560?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-14 14:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Fed's boots landed this week, can we buy the bottom?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191557560","media":"Wind万得","summary":"美联储加息之后,就是美股抄底之时?历史经验表明,美股在利率上升后将经历更大的波动,但这并不意味着牛市已经结束。事实上,根据LPL Financial的数据,在之前的8个加息周期中,标普500指数在每次","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>After the Federal Reserve's rate hike, is it the time for US stocks to buy bottoms? Historical experience shows that U.S. stocks will experience greater volatility after rising interest rates, but this does not mean that the bull market is over. In fact, according to LPL Financial, in the previous eight rate hike cycles, the S&P 500 index rose in the year after each of its first rate hike. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is superimposed on the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations. The three major U.S. stock indexes have been very weak this year. However, on the other hand, the short-term rapid decline has released some risks, which has made the stock indexes more attractive. After all, U.S. stocks are YYDS.</p><p>Of the three major stock indexes, the tech-heavy Nasdaq is currently down the most, down 17.9% year-to-date. The S&P 500 index fell nearly 12%, ranking fourth in the worst start in the history of U.S. stocks. The top three were 2009, 2020, and 1935, which corresponded to the global financial crisis, the global outbreak of the new crown, and the U.S. economic crisis. But the miraculous thing is that the S&P 500 index has all risen sharply in the past three years to the end of the year. This time we will wait and see.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9a1f4c3daebe6531bc63c89d464fc94\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>From the perspective of market sentiment, the risk appetite of the whole market is now declining rapidly, similar to that in 2008 and 2015, but there is still a certain distance from the panic in early 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a801f787feca93a0896535a1106f7d51\" tg-width=\"707\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bank of America's panic index has also reached the vicinity of extreme fear, and it has been going on for nearly two weeks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9054da0bdf5f02b31b06cd8baba3e52\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Panic selling by hedge funds has also reached an extreme in the short term. Hedge funds' U.S. stock positions have fallen by 3% in the past two weeks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9de9be7eb59a648971081ccc69bbfe2a\" tg-width=\"536\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition, the intraday volatility of the U.S. stock market has also returned to the level at the beginning of 2020, indicating that the panic in the market has further spread.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e1ecf8535511f48ae987dfe758ff2e3\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"542\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Historical experience shows that U.S. stocks will experience greater volatility after rising interest rates, but this does not mean that the bull market is over. In fact, according to LPL Financial, in the previous eight rate hike cycles, the S&P 500 index rose in the year after each of its first rate hike.</p><p>This week, the \"Super Central Bank Week\" kicked off, led by the Federal Reserve. Britain, Japan, Brazil, Turkey and Indonesia will all announce interest rate decisions.</p><p>On March 17 (Thursday), the Federal Reserve FOMC will announce interest rate decisions, policy statements and economic expectations, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will also hold a press conference afterwards.</p><p>Affected by factors such as the uncertain situation in Ukraine, increased European and American sanctions against Russia, and soaring commodity prices, the entire financial market may continue to fluctuate violently. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will be cautious about rate hike and may not be at every FOMC meeting this year. rate hike, and there may not be a single 50 basis point rate hike this year. In addition, economists also expect the Fed dot plot to show four to five rate hike this year.</p><p>However, at present, fund companies are generally not optimistic about the US stock market outlook. After Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end S&P 500 target from 5,100 points to 4,900 points in February, its latest report lowered it to 4,700 points again. The main reason is that economic fundamentals will face more challenges and the performance growth rate of listed companies is lower than expected.</p><p>Many economists on Wall Street predict that there may be a stagflation in the U.S. and global economies in the near future, and the probability of the economy falling into recession next year will reach 35%.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed's boots landed this week, can we buy the bottom?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed's boots landed this week, can we buy the bottom?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-14 14:14</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>After the Federal Reserve's rate hike, is it the time for US stocks to buy bottoms? Historical experience shows that U.S. stocks will experience greater volatility after rising interest rates, but this does not mean that the bull market is over. In fact, according to LPL Financial, in the previous eight rate hike cycles, the S&P 500 index rose in the year after each of its first rate hike. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is superimposed on the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations. The three major U.S. stock indexes have been very weak this year. However, on the other hand, the short-term rapid decline has released some risks, which has made the stock indexes more attractive. After all, U.S. stocks are YYDS.</p><p>Of the three major stock indexes, the tech-heavy Nasdaq is currently down the most, down 17.9% year-to-date. The S&P 500 index fell nearly 12%, ranking fourth in the worst start in the history of U.S. stocks. The top three were 2009, 2020, and 1935, which corresponded to the global financial crisis, the global outbreak of the new crown, and the U.S. economic crisis. But the miraculous thing is that the S&P 500 index has all risen sharply in the past three years to the end of the year. This time we will wait and see.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9a1f4c3daebe6531bc63c89d464fc94\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>From the perspective of market sentiment, the risk appetite of the whole market is now declining rapidly, similar to that in 2008 and 2015, but there is still a certain distance from the panic in early 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a801f787feca93a0896535a1106f7d51\" tg-width=\"707\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bank of America's panic index has also reached the vicinity of extreme fear, and it has been going on for nearly two weeks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9054da0bdf5f02b31b06cd8baba3e52\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Panic selling by hedge funds has also reached an extreme in the short term. Hedge funds' U.S. stock positions have fallen by 3% in the past two weeks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9de9be7eb59a648971081ccc69bbfe2a\" tg-width=\"536\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition, the intraday volatility of the U.S. stock market has also returned to the level at the beginning of 2020, indicating that the panic in the market has further spread.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e1ecf8535511f48ae987dfe758ff2e3\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"542\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Historical experience shows that U.S. stocks will experience greater volatility after rising interest rates, but this does not mean that the bull market is over. In fact, according to LPL Financial, in the previous eight rate hike cycles, the S&P 500 index rose in the year after each of its first rate hike.</p><p>This week, the \"Super Central Bank Week\" kicked off, led by the Federal Reserve. Britain, Japan, Brazil, Turkey and Indonesia will all announce interest rate decisions.</p><p>On March 17 (Thursday), the Federal Reserve FOMC will announce interest rate decisions, policy statements and economic expectations, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will also hold a press conference afterwards.</p><p>Affected by factors such as the uncertain situation in Ukraine, increased European and American sanctions against Russia, and soaring commodity prices, the entire financial market may continue to fluctuate violently. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will be cautious about rate hike and may not be at every FOMC meeting this year. rate hike, and there may not be a single 50 basis point rate hike this year. In addition, economists also expect the Fed dot plot to show four to five rate hike this year.</p><p>However, at present, fund companies are generally not optimistic about the US stock market outlook. After Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end S&P 500 target from 5,100 points to 4,900 points in February, its latest report lowered it to 4,700 points again. The main reason is that economic fundamentals will face more challenges and the performance growth rate of listed companies is lower than expected.</p><p>Many economists on Wall Street predict that there may be a stagflation in the U.S. and global economies in the near future, and the probability of the economy falling into recession next year will reach 35%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191557560","content_text":"美联储加息之后,就是美股抄底之时?历史经验表明,美股在利率上升后将经历更大的波动,但这并不意味着牛市已经结束。事实上,根据LPL Financial的数据,在之前的8个加息周期中,标普500指数在每次首次加息后的一年时间里都会有所上升。俄乌冲突叠加美联储加息预期,美股三大股指今年来走势非常弱,但是从另一面来看,短期急速下跌释放部分风险,反而让股指更具有吸引力,毕竟美股是YYDS。三大股指中,以科技股为重的纳斯达克指数目前下跌幅度最大,年初至今下跌17.9%。标普500指数跌近12%,这在美股历史上最差开局排第四位,排在前三位的是2009、2020以及1935年,这三次分别对应全球金融危机、全球新冠爆发以及美国经济危机。但神奇的是,这三年到年末的时候标普500指数全部大幅上涨,这一次拭目以待。从市场情绪来看,现在全市场风险偏好迅速下降,和2008年、2015年类似,但是相较于2020年初的恐慌情绪还有一定距离。美银的恐慌指数也来到极度恐惧附近,而且已经持续了近两周。对冲基金的恐慌性抛售在短期内也达到一个极端。近两周时间对冲基金的美股仓位下降3%。另外美股市场的日内波动率也回到2020年初的水平,表明市场的恐慌情绪进一步扩散。历史经验表明,美股在利率上升后将经历更大的波动,但这并不意味着牛市已经结束。事实上,根据LPL Financial的数据,在之前的8个加息周期中,标普500指数在每次首次加息后的一年时间里都会有所上升。本周,“超级央行周”拉开大幕,由美联储领衔,英国、日本以及巴西、土耳其、印尼均将公布利率决议。3月17日(周四),美联储FOMC将公布利率决议、政策声明及经济预期,美联储主席鲍威尔也在此后将召开新闻发布会。受到乌克兰局势不确定、欧美对俄制裁加码和大宗商品价格飙升等因素影响,整个金融市场可能会持续剧烈波动,预计美联储将会对加息持谨慎态度,今年可能不会在每次FOMC会议上加息,并且今年可能不会有单次50个基点的加息幅度。此外,经济学家还预计美联储点阵图将会显示今年加息四至五次。不过,目前基金公司普遍对美股后市不太乐观。高盛继2月将年底标普500目标位由5100点下降至4900点后,其最新报告再度下调至4700点,主要理由是经济基本面将面临更多挑战,上市公司业绩增速低于预期。华尔街不少经济学家预计,美国和全球经济近期有可能会出现滞涨,明年经济陷入衰退的概率达35%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"IVV":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":587,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887348091,"gmtCreate":1631983660213,"gmtModify":1676530682195,"author":{"id":"4087300025751020","authorId":"4087300025751020","name":"老八公","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27256ede8324832365cde987fa4cf48","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087300025751020","idStr":"4087300025751020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/887348091","repostId":"1109542809","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":455,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9960787465,"gmtCreate":1668262242057,"gmtModify":1676538035093,"author":{"id":"4087300025751020","authorId":"4087300025751020","name":"老八公","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27256ede8324832365cde987fa4cf48","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087300025751020","idStr":"4087300025751020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9960787465","repostId":"2282301544","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2282301544","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1668231437,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2282301544?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-12 13:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The complexity far exceeds that of Lehman, one picture can understand the collapsed FTX empire","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2282301544","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"雷曼兄弟的报告整理花了整整18个月的时间,但其结构看起来要简单直白地多。相比之下,人们可能要等更长的时间,才能对FTX的整体架构有更为详细和精确的了解。11月11日周五美股盘前,FTX根据美国破产法第","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Lehman Brothers' report took 18 months to compile, but its structure seems much simpler and straightforward. In contrast, people may have to wait longer to have a more detailed and precise understanding of the overall architecture of FTX.</b>Before the U.S. stock market opened on Friday, November 11, FTX filed for bankruptcy protection in the U.S. federal court under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code.</p><p>Also filing for bankruptcy are the suspected initiator of the storm-cryptocurrency hedge fund Alameda Research, and the FTX.US American independent platform whose operations and liquidity claimed to be completely unaffected by the FTX.com crash. They, along with roughly 130 affiliates that filed for bankruptcy, are collectively referred to as the \"FTX Group.\"</p><p><b>In this regard, SBF's huge capital empire completely collapsed.</b></p><p>Many people compare FTX's crash to the \"Lehman moment\" in the currency circle. However, the complexity of its empire structure far exceeds that of Lehman Brothers.</p><p>On Friday, the media put together a chart that shows the complex structure of the entire FTX group as of March this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/faff3d1e797206ee63b2f266cbacbc05\" tg-width=\"5512\" tg-height=\"3148\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71967588ad9260cb10c7f37073f62c85\" tg-width=\"1544\" tg-height=\"821\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>There are a few companies that need special attention:</p><p><ul><li>FTX Trading LTD is incorporated in Antigua and Barbuda and is the underlying company identified in FTX's legal disclaimer, and the FTX exchange is held by FTX Trading LTD;</li><li>West Realm Shires Inc is a U.S.-oriented subsidiary (i.e. FTX.us), and it is also protected by the state of Delaware;</li><li>FTX Ventures Ltd, a Bahamas-registered venture capital fund wholly owned by Paper Bird, an unknown holding company in Delaware, which in turn is wholly owned by SBF; Paper Bird also appears to have an 89% stake in FTX Trading LTD and owns Alameda's intra-company loans;</li><li>Located at the bottom left of the chart, is the U.S. and Cayman Islands-based LedgerPrime entity, stemming from FTX's acquisition of hedge fund Ledger Holdings last year; FTX rebranded LedgerPrime's crypto futures platform as FTX US Derivatives LLC and said the remaining business would be restructured into a family office dedicated to investing in Alameda;</li><li>Salameda Ltd (Hong Kong), which is 100% controlled by FTX's CFO Jen Chan, appears to be a peripheral institution docking with Alameda entities through a service agreement.</li></ul>The media said that because the publicly disclosed information is fragmented, the above chart may not be completely accurate, and the complete chart should appear in the review report of Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. What can be known in advance is that its complexity is far greater than that of Lehman Brothers.</p><p><b>Lehman Brothers' report took 18 months to compile, but its structure seems much simpler and straightforward. In contrast, people may have to wait longer to have a more detailed and precise understanding of the overall architecture of FTX.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a13e1970352d5d4149fb123fbf38dd3\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The full list of \"FTX Group\" is as follows:</p><p>1. Alameda Aus Pty Ltd 2. Alameda Global Services Ltd. 3. Alameda Research (Bahamas) Ltd. 4. Alameda Research Holdings Inc.5. Alameda Research KK6. Alameda Research LLC7. Alameda Research Ltd. 8. Alameda Research Pte Ltd. 9. Alameda Research Yankari Ltd 10. Alameda TR Ltd11. Alameda TR Systems S. de R. L.12. Allston Way Ltd. 13. Altalix Ltd. 14. Analisya Pte Ltd. 15. Atlantis Technology Ltd. 21. Bancroft Way Ltd28. Bitvo, Inc.29. Blockfolio Holdings, Inc.30. Blockfolio, Inc.31. Blue Ridge Ltd. 37. BTLS Limited Tanzania38. Cardinal Ventures Ltd. 39. Cedar Bay Ltd. 40. Cedar Grove Technology Services, Ltd. 41. Clifton Bay Investments LLC42. Clifton Bay Investments Ltd. 43. CM-Equity AG44. Corner Stone Staffing45. Cottonwood Grove Ltd. 46. Cottonwood Technologies Ltd. 47. Crypto Bahamas LLC48. DAAG Trading, DMCC49. Deck Technologies Holdings LLC50. Deck Technologies Inc.51. Deep Creek Ltd52. Digital Custody Inc.53. Euclid Way Ltd 60. FTX (Gibraltar) Ltd. 61. FTX Canada Inc62. FTX Certificates GmbH63. FTX Crypto Services Ltd. 64. FTX Digital Assets LLC65. FTX Digital Holdings (Singapore) Pte Ltd66. FTX EMEA Ltd.67. FTX Equity Record Holdings Ltd68. FTX Europe AG69. FTX Exchange FZE70. FTX Hong Kong Ltd. 71. FTX Japan Holdings K.K. 72. FTX Japan K.K. 73. FTX Japan Services KK74. FTX Lend Inc.75. FTX Marketplace, Inc.76. FTX Products (Singapore) Pte Ltd. 77. FTX Property Holdings Ltd. 78. FTX Services Solutions Ltd. 79. FTX Structure Products AG80. FTX Switzerland GmbH81. FTX Trading GmbH82. FTX Trading Ltd83. FTX TURKEY TEKNOLOJİVE TİCARET ANONİMŞİRKET84. FTX US Derivatives LLC85. FTX US Services, Inc.86. FTX US Trading, Inc87. FTX Vault Trust Company88. FTX Ventures Ltd89. FTX Ventures Partnership90. FTX Zuma Ltd91. GG Trading Terminal Ltd. 92. Global Compass Dynamics Ltd. 93. Good Luck Games, LLC94. Goodman Investments Ltd. 95. Hannam Group Inc96. Hawaii Digital Assets Inc.97. Hilltop Technology Services LLC98. Hive Empire Trading Pty Ltd99. Innovatia Ltd. 100. Island Bay Ventures Inc101. K-DNA Financial Services Ltd 102. Killarney Lake Investments Ltd 103. Ledger Holdings Inc.104. LedgerPrime Bitcoin Yield Enhancement Fund, LLC105. LedgerPrime Bitcoin Yield Enhancement Master Fund LP106. LedgerPrime Digital Asset Opportunities Fund, LLC107. LedgerPrime Digital Asset Opportunities Master Fund LP108. Ledger Prime LLC109. LedgerPrime Ventures, LP110. Liquid Financial USA Inc.111. LiquidEX LLC112. Liquid Securities Singapore Pte Ltd 113. LT Baskets Ltd. 114. Maclaurin Investments Ltd. Mangrove Cay Ltd 116. North Dimension Inc117. North Dimension Ltd. 118. North Wireless Dimension Inc119. Paper Bird Inc120. Pioneer Street Inc.121. Quoine India Pte Ltd. 122. Quoine Pte Ltd. 123. Quoine Vietnam Co. Ltd 124. SNG INVESTMENTS YATIRIM VE DANIŞMANLIK ANONİM ŞİRKETİ 125. Strategy Ark Collective Ltd. 126. Technology Services Bahamas Limited127. Tigetwit Ltd. 129. Verdant Canyon Capital LLC130. West Innovative Barista Ltd. 131. West Realm Shires Financial Services Inc.132. West Realm Shires Services Inc.133. Western Concord Enterprises Ltd. 134. Zubr Exchange Ltd Risk Warning and Disclaimer</p><p>The market is risky, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, opinions or conclusions in this article are appropriate for their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly at your own responsibility.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The complexity far exceeds that of Lehman, one picture can understand the collapsed FTX empire</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe complexity far exceeds that of Lehman, one picture can understand the collapsed FTX empire\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-12 13:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Lehman Brothers' report took 18 months to compile, but its structure seems much simpler and straightforward. In contrast, people may have to wait longer to have a more detailed and precise understanding of the overall architecture of FTX.</b>Before the U.S. stock market opened on Friday, November 11, FTX filed for bankruptcy protection in the U.S. federal court under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code.</p><p>Also filing for bankruptcy are the suspected initiator of the storm-cryptocurrency hedge fund Alameda Research, and the FTX.US American independent platform whose operations and liquidity claimed to be completely unaffected by the FTX.com crash. They, along with roughly 130 affiliates that filed for bankruptcy, are collectively referred to as the \"FTX Group.\"</p><p><b>In this regard, SBF's huge capital empire completely collapsed.</b></p><p>Many people compare FTX's crash to the \"Lehman moment\" in the currency circle. However, the complexity of its empire structure far exceeds that of Lehman Brothers.</p><p>On Friday, the media put together a chart that shows the complex structure of the entire FTX group as of March this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/faff3d1e797206ee63b2f266cbacbc05\" tg-width=\"5512\" tg-height=\"3148\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71967588ad9260cb10c7f37073f62c85\" tg-width=\"1544\" tg-height=\"821\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>There are a few companies that need special attention:</p><p><ul><li>FTX Trading LTD is incorporated in Antigua and Barbuda and is the underlying company identified in FTX's legal disclaimer, and the FTX exchange is held by FTX Trading LTD;</li><li>West Realm Shires Inc is a U.S.-oriented subsidiary (i.e. FTX.us), and it is also protected by the state of Delaware;</li><li>FTX Ventures Ltd, a Bahamas-registered venture capital fund wholly owned by Paper Bird, an unknown holding company in Delaware, which in turn is wholly owned by SBF; Paper Bird also appears to have an 89% stake in FTX Trading LTD and owns Alameda's intra-company loans;</li><li>Located at the bottom left of the chart, is the U.S. and Cayman Islands-based LedgerPrime entity, stemming from FTX's acquisition of hedge fund Ledger Holdings last year; FTX rebranded LedgerPrime's crypto futures platform as FTX US Derivatives LLC and said the remaining business would be restructured into a family office dedicated to investing in Alameda;</li><li>Salameda Ltd (Hong Kong), which is 100% controlled by FTX's CFO Jen Chan, appears to be a peripheral institution docking with Alameda entities through a service agreement.</li></ul>The media said that because the publicly disclosed information is fragmented, the above chart may not be completely accurate, and the complete chart should appear in the review report of Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. What can be known in advance is that its complexity is far greater than that of Lehman Brothers.</p><p><b>Lehman Brothers' report took 18 months to compile, but its structure seems much simpler and straightforward. In contrast, people may have to wait longer to have a more detailed and precise understanding of the overall architecture of FTX.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a13e1970352d5d4149fb123fbf38dd3\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The full list of \"FTX Group\" is as follows:</p><p>1. Alameda Aus Pty Ltd 2. Alameda Global Services Ltd. 3. Alameda Research (Bahamas) Ltd. 4. Alameda Research Holdings Inc.5. Alameda Research KK6. Alameda Research LLC7. Alameda Research Ltd. 8. Alameda Research Pte Ltd. 9. Alameda Research Yankari Ltd 10. Alameda TR Ltd11. Alameda TR Systems S. de R. L.12. Allston Way Ltd. 13. Altalix Ltd. 14. Analisya Pte Ltd. 15. Atlantis Technology Ltd. 21. Bancroft Way Ltd28. Bitvo, Inc.29. Blockfolio Holdings, Inc.30. Blockfolio, Inc.31. Blue Ridge Ltd. 37. BTLS Limited Tanzania38. Cardinal Ventures Ltd. 39. Cedar Bay Ltd. 40. Cedar Grove Technology Services, Ltd. 41. Clifton Bay Investments LLC42. Clifton Bay Investments Ltd. 43. CM-Equity AG44. Corner Stone Staffing45. Cottonwood Grove Ltd. 46. Cottonwood Technologies Ltd. 47. Crypto Bahamas LLC48. DAAG Trading, DMCC49. Deck Technologies Holdings LLC50. Deck Technologies Inc.51. Deep Creek Ltd52. Digital Custody Inc.53. Euclid Way Ltd 60. FTX (Gibraltar) Ltd. 61. FTX Canada Inc62. FTX Certificates GmbH63. FTX Crypto Services Ltd. 64. FTX Digital Assets LLC65. FTX Digital Holdings (Singapore) Pte Ltd66. FTX EMEA Ltd.67. FTX Equity Record Holdings Ltd68. FTX Europe AG69. FTX Exchange FZE70. FTX Hong Kong Ltd. 71. FTX Japan Holdings K.K. 72. FTX Japan K.K. 73. FTX Japan Services KK74. FTX Lend Inc.75. FTX Marketplace, Inc.76. FTX Products (Singapore) Pte Ltd. 77. FTX Property Holdings Ltd. 78. FTX Services Solutions Ltd. 79. FTX Structure Products AG80. FTX Switzerland GmbH81. FTX Trading GmbH82. FTX Trading Ltd83. FTX TURKEY TEKNOLOJİVE TİCARET ANONİMŞİRKET84. FTX US Derivatives LLC85. FTX US Services, Inc.86. FTX US Trading, Inc87. FTX Vault Trust Company88. FTX Ventures Ltd89. FTX Ventures Partnership90. FTX Zuma Ltd91. GG Trading Terminal Ltd. 92. Global Compass Dynamics Ltd. 93. Good Luck Games, LLC94. Goodman Investments Ltd. 95. Hannam Group Inc96. Hawaii Digital Assets Inc.97. Hilltop Technology Services LLC98. Hive Empire Trading Pty Ltd99. Innovatia Ltd. 100. Island Bay Ventures Inc101. K-DNA Financial Services Ltd 102. Killarney Lake Investments Ltd 103. Ledger Holdings Inc.104. LedgerPrime Bitcoin Yield Enhancement Fund, LLC105. LedgerPrime Bitcoin Yield Enhancement Master Fund LP106. LedgerPrime Digital Asset Opportunities Fund, LLC107. LedgerPrime Digital Asset Opportunities Master Fund LP108. Ledger Prime LLC109. LedgerPrime Ventures, LP110. Liquid Financial USA Inc.111. LiquidEX LLC112. Liquid Securities Singapore Pte Ltd 113. LT Baskets Ltd. 114. Maclaurin Investments Ltd. Mangrove Cay Ltd 116. North Dimension Inc117. North Dimension Ltd. 118. North Wireless Dimension Inc119. Paper Bird Inc120. Pioneer Street Inc.121. Quoine India Pte Ltd. 122. Quoine Pte Ltd. 123. Quoine Vietnam Co. Ltd 124. SNG INVESTMENTS YATIRIM VE DANIŞMANLIK ANONİM ŞİRKETİ 125. Strategy Ark Collective Ltd. 126. Technology Services Bahamas Limited127. Tigetwit Ltd. 129. Verdant Canyon Capital LLC130. West Innovative Barista Ltd. 131. West Realm Shires Financial Services Inc.132. West Realm Shires Services Inc.133. Western Concord Enterprises Ltd. 134. Zubr Exchange Ltd Risk Warning and Disclaimer</p><p>The market is risky, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, opinions or conclusions in this article are appropriate for their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly at your own responsibility.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674794\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f1a26bb817de6639ca261862fe02525","relate_stocks":{"BK4023":"应用软件","BOLT":"Bolt Biotherapeutics, Inc.","LHDX":"Lucira Health, Inc.","BK4082":"医疗保健设备","BK4139":"生物科技","TERN":"Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc.","CGEM":"Cullinan Therapeutics","SANA":"Sana Biotechnology, Inc.","ONTF":"ON24, Inc.","CRCT":"Cricut, Inc.","LABP":"Landos Biopharma, Inc.","BK4007":"制药","BK4191":"家用电器","BK4196":"保健护理服务","BK4539":"次新股"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674794","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2282301544","content_text":"雷曼兄弟的报告整理花了整整18个月的时间,但其结构看起来要简单直白地多。相比之下,人们可能要等更长的时间,才能对FTX的整体架构有更为详细和精确的了解。11月11日周五美股盘前,FTX根据美国破产法第11章向美国联邦法院申请破产保护。一同申请破产的还有疑似风暴的始作俑者——加密货币对冲基金Alameda Research,以及号称运营和流动性完全未受FTX.com崩盘影响的FTX.US美国独立平台。它们连同大约130家申请破产的附属公司被统称为“FTX集团”。就此,SBF的庞大资本帝国彻底陨落。很多人将FTX的崩盘比作币圈的“雷曼时刻”,然而,其帝国构造的复杂程度远远超过了雷曼兄弟。周五,媒体整理了一份图表,图表显示了截至今年3月整个FTX集团的复杂结构。有几家公司需要特别注意:FTX Trading LTD在安提瓜和巴布达注册成立,是FTX法律免责声明中确定的基础公司,FTX交易所就由 FTX Trading LTD 所持有;West Realm Shires Inc是面向美国的子公司(即FTX.us),它还受到特拉华州的保护;在巴哈马注册的风险投资基金FTX Ventures Ltd,由特拉华州一家不知名控股公司 Paper Bird 全资持有,而 Paper Bird 又由SBF全资持有;Paper Bird 似乎还持有FTX Trading LTD 89%的股份,并拥有 Alameda 的公司内部贷款;位于图表左下方的,是总部位于美国和开曼群岛的 LedgerPrime 实体,源于FTX去年对对冲基金 Ledger Holdings 的收购;FTX将 LedgerPrime 的加密货币期货平台重新命名为 FTX US Derivatives LLC,并表示剩余业务将重组成一个家族办公室,专门为 Alameda 进行投资;Salameda Ltd(香港)由FTX的CFO Jen Chan 100%控股,似乎是通过服务协议与 Alameda 实体进行对接的外围机构。媒体表示,由于公开披露的信息是零散的,上述图表不一定完全准确,完整图表应该会在美国破产法第11章的审查报告中出现。可以预先知道的是,其复杂程度要远远超过雷曼兄弟。雷曼兄弟的报告整理花了整整18个月的时间,但其结构看起来要简单直白地多。相比之下,人们可能要等待更长的时间,才能对FTX的整体架构有更为详细和精确的了解。“FTX集团”的完整名单如下:1. Alameda Aus Pty Ltd2. Alameda Global Services Ltd.3. Alameda Research (Bahamas) Ltd4. Alameda Research Holdings Inc.5. Alameda Research KK6. Alameda Research LLC7. Alameda Research Ltd8. Alameda Research Pte Ltd9. Alameda Research Yankari Ltd10. Alameda TR Ltd11. Alameda TR Systems S. de R. L.12. Allston Way Ltd13. Altalix Ltd14. Analisya Pte Ltd15. Atlantis Technology Ltd.21. Bancroft Way Ltd28. Bitvo, Inc.29. Blockfolio Holdings, Inc.30. Blockfolio, Inc.31. Blue Ridge Ltd37. BTLS Limited Tanzania38. Cardinal Ventures Ltd39. Cedar Bay Ltd40. Cedar Grove Technology Services, Ltd41. Clifton Bay Investments LLC42. Clifton Bay Investments Ltd43. CM-Equity AG44. Corner Stone Staffing45. Cottonwood Grove Ltd46. Cottonwood Technologies Ltd.47. Crypto Bahamas LLC48. DAAG Trading, DMCC49. Deck Technologies Holdings LLC50. Deck Technologies Inc.51. Deep Creek Ltd52. Digital Custody Inc.53. Euclid Way Ltd60. FTX (Gibraltar) Ltd61. FTX Canada Inc62. FTX Certificates GmbH63. FTX Crypto Services Ltd.64. FTX Digital Assets LLC65. FTX Digital Holdings (Singapore) Pte Ltd66. FTX EMEA Ltd.67. FTX Equity Record Holdings Ltd68. FTX Europe AG69. FTX Exchange FZE70. FTX Hong Kong Ltd71. FTX Japan Holdings K.K.72. FTX Japan K.K.73. FTX Japan Services KK74. FTX Lend Inc.75. FTX Marketplace, Inc.76. FTX Products (Singapore) Pte Ltd77. FTX Property Holdings Ltd78. FTX Services Solutions Ltd.79. FTX Structured Products AG80. FTX Switzerland GmbH81. FTX Trading GmbH82. FTX Trading Ltd83. FTX TURKEY TEKNOLOJİ VE TİCARET ANONİM ŞİRKET84. FTX US Derivatives LLC85. FTX US Services, Inc.86. FTX US Trading, Inc87. FTX Vault Trust Company88. FTX Ventures Ltd89. FTX Ventures Partnership90. FTX Zuma Ltd91. GG Trading Terminal Ltd92. Global Compass Dynamics Ltd.93. Good Luck Games, LLC94. Goodman Investments Ltd.95. Hannam Group Inc96. Hawaii Digital Assets Inc.97. Hilltop Technology Services LLC98. Hive Empire Trading Pty Ltd99. Innovatia Ltd100. Island Bay Ventures Inc101. K-DNA Financial Services Ltd102. Killarney Lake Investments Ltd103. Ledger Holdings Inc.104. LedgerPrime Bitcoin Yield Enhancement Fund, LLC105. LedgerPrime Bitcoin Yield Enhancement Master Fund LP106. LedgerPrime Digital Asset Opportunities Fund, LLC107. LedgerPrime Digital Asset Opportunities Master Fund LP108. Ledger Prime LLC109. LedgerPrime Ventures, LP110. Liquid Financial USA Inc.111. LiquidEX LLC112. Liquid Securities Singapore Pte Ltd113. LT Baskets Ltd.114. Maclaurin Investments Ltd.115. Mangrove Cay Ltd116. North Dimension Inc117. North Dimension Ltd118. North Wireless Dimension Inc119. Paper Bird Inc120. Pioneer Street Inc.121. Quoine India Pte Ltd122. Quoine Pte Ltd123. Quoine Vietnam Co. Ltd124. SNG INVESTMENTS YATIRIM VE DANIŞMANLIK ANONİM ŞİRKETİ125. Strategy Ark Collective Ltd.126. Technology Services Bahamas Limited127. Tigetwit Ltd129. Verdant Canyon Capital LLC130. West Innovative Barista Ltd.131. West Realm Shires Financial Services Inc.132. West Realm Shires Services Inc.133. Western Concord Enterprises Ltd.134. Zubr Exchange Ltd风险提示及免责条款市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SANA":0.9,"VIRI":0.9,"APR":0.9,"CRCT":0.9,"LABP":0.9,"ONTF":0.79,"BOLT":0.9,"LHDX":0.9,"CGEM":0.9,"TERN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":651,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912089762,"gmtCreate":1664704317156,"gmtModify":1676537496522,"author":{"id":"4087300025751020","authorId":"4087300025751020","name":"老八公","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27256ede8324832365cde987fa4cf48","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087300025751020","idStr":"4087300025751020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912089762","repostId":"1100486117","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9908815898,"gmtCreate":1659358949014,"gmtModify":1705979444338,"author":{"id":"4087300025751020","authorId":"4087300025751020","name":"老八公","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27256ede8324832365cde987fa4cf48","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087300025751020","idStr":"4087300025751020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9908815898","repostId":"1146279071","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146279071","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659313800,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146279071?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-01 08:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The United States has included 159 Chinese concept stocks in the list of \"to be delisted\", how to deal with it","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146279071","media":"环球时报","summary":"符合条件的中概股回归港股是首选,其次是A股,此外新加坡也正在吸引中企IPO。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Experts said that it is the first choice for eligible Chinese concept stocks to return to Hong Kong stocks, followed by A shares. In addition, Singapore is also attracting IPOs from Chinese companies. July 29th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The stock price suddenly plummeted by 11% on the New York Stock Exchange. The main trigger came from the fact that the largest Chinese concept stock by market value was included in the \"pre-delisting\" list by the US Securities and Exchange Commission. After the U.S. \"Foreign Company Accountability Act\" came into effect in 2021, many Chinese companies listed in the United States were included in the \"pre-delisting\" list of U.S. stocks by the U.S. for \"audit reasons\". Experts believe that Chinese concept stocks need to be more and more prepared for the future U.S. capital market. Be prepared for the trend of \"politicization\".</p><p>Return to Hong Kong Dual Primary Listing</p><p>Also on the list with Alibaba<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOGU\">Mushroom Street</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCM\">Cheetah Mobile</a>。 As of the end of July, the US Securities and Exchange Commission had included 159 Chinese concept stocks in the list of \"to be delisted\" in accordance with the US Foreign Companies Accountability Act. The Wall Street Journal reported that after the Foreign Companies Accountability Act takes effect in 2021, the United States can ban the securities transactions of companies whose audit firms have not been inspected by U.S. audit oversight agencies for three consecutive years.</p><p>Some media said that if China and the United States fail to reach a consensus and complete the inspection of accounting firms in 2022, 192 Chinese concept stock companies may be forced to delist in 2023. As of March this year, a total of 261 Chinese companies were listed in the United States, with a total market value of about $1.3 trillion, according to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Committee.</p><p>On July 26, Alibaba announced its application for dual primary listing in Hong Kong. At present, the uncertainty of U.S. regulatory policy is threatening all Chinese concept stocks including Ali. Realizing a \"dual primary listing\" in Hong Kong can greatly reduce potential risks.</p><p>After Alibaba announced its decision, it was listed on Nasdaq on the 27th<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">Kingsoft Cloud</a>Also applied for dual primary listing in Hong Kong. The Wall Street Journal stated that Kingsoft Cloud was submitting to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00388\">HKEX</a>According to the preliminary prospectus, it plans to use the proceeds from the issuance to upgrade the technical infrastructure, including the purchase of high-performance servers and data center services.</p><p>According to reports, earlier this year, a video sharing platform company listed on Nasdaq<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>A similar plan has also been put forward, intending to change the secondary listing status of Hong Kong stocks to the primary listing. According to statistics, at least more than 10 Chinese concept stocks on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange have completed or are applying for conversion to dual primary listings. The vast majority of Chinese concept stocks recently listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange choose the same dual primary listing method as Ali, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TUYA\">Tuya Smart</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNSO\">MINISO</a>Etc.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Analysts in the research department believe that by choosing dual primary listing in Hong Kong, leading high-quality companies can not only enjoy the rich liquidity brought by being included in Hong Kong Stock Connect, but also ensure that their primary listing status will not be damaged under extreme delisting situations overseas.</p><p>Hong Kong A shares welcome Chinese concept stocks</p><p>Dong Dengxin, director of the Institute of Financial Securities of Wuhan University of Science and Technology, said in an interview with the Global Times on July 31 that Chinese companies were keen to go public in European and American capital markets before, mainly because the European and American market systems are mature and the market capacity is large, especially the American capital market has a high degree of recognition for entrepreneurial and unprofitable companies, and usually gives higher valuations. Therefore, some growing companies that have not yet met the financial requirements for listing in the mainland are more keen to list in the United States. This is conducive to Chinese enterprises connecting with the mature global management system and exploring the global market.</p><p>\"The return of Chinese concept stocks is the general trend in the context of increasing listing risks in the United States.\" Dong Dengxin said that the return of qualified Chinese concept stocks to Hong Kong stocks is the first choice, followed by the return to A shares. Dong Dengxin believes that the stay of Chinese concept stocks largely depends on the cooperation between Chinese and American regulators, but the \"politicization\" trend of the US capital market requires Chinese concept stocks to be fully psychologically prepared for this.</p><p>After Alibaba announced its application for dual listing in Hong Kong, Xu Zhengyu, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government, said that at present, 70% of Chinese concept stocks listed in the United States have returned to Hong Kong for primary or secondary listing. He said that Hong Kong welcomes any enterprise that meets the standards and requirements of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to come to Hong Kong to raise funds.</p><p>Hong Kong Financial Secretary Chen Maobo previously stated that the innovation of listing rules will help further attract high-quality Chinese concept stocks to be listed in Hong Kong, enrich market choices, increase market liquidity, and enhance the competitiveness of Hong Kong's global financing platform. Hong Kong's \"Sing Tao Daily\" recently stated that Hong Kong is still the first choice for the return of Chinese concept stocks, especially large enterprises, mainly considering market liquidity and local investor portfolio.</p><p>On March 25, 2022, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued the Interim Measures for CDR Listing and Trading, supporting the return of Chinese concept stocks with a market value of more than 20 billion yuan to A-share listing. This path allows companies to go back to the Science and Technology Innovation Board for listing while retaining the red-chip structure. In May 2019,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>Announced delisting from the US stock market. July 16, 2020,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">SMIC</a>The successful listing on the Science and Technology Innovation Board has become an important case for red-chip companies to return to A-shares.</p><p>Singapore attracts IPOs from Chinese companies</p><p>\"Singapore pays attention to the listing of Chinese companies to hedge risks.\" Bloomberg News recently reported that the shrinkage of the new stock market of SGX for many years may soon end, because more Chinese concept stocks aimed at reducing political risks between China and the United States, as well as unicorns in Southeast Asia (startups with a valuation of more than US $1 billion) seek to raise funds for listing in Singapore.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/S68.SI\">Singapore Exchange</a>Bao Desheng, head of global sales and development, said that in the next five years, the SGX may have 30 to 40 initial and secondary listings a year-more than double the average of about 13 listings a year since 2017. Bao Desheng also said that SGX is negotiating and communicating with more than 100 companies in China and Southeast Asia, covering financial technology, consumer technology, real estate investment trusts and other fields.</p><p>According to Bloomberg News, the number of newly listed companies on the SGX has continued to decrease in the past decade or so. Therefore, SGX is stepping up negotiations with Chinese companies seeking to list outside the United States or Hong Kong, China, and interested in increasing their popularity in Southeast Asia.</p><p>In 2021, there were 8 companies listed on SGX. On April 28 this year, Yangzijiang Financial Holdings Co., Ltd. was listed on SGX.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>On May 20th, it was officially listed in Singapore for the second time, and its shares listed on SGX will be fully interchangeable with American depositary receipts listed on NYSE.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The United States has included 159 Chinese concept stocks in the list of \"to be delisted\", how to deal with it</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe United States has included 159 Chinese concept stocks in the list of \"to be delisted\", how to deal with it\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球时报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-08-01 08:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Experts said that it is the first choice for eligible Chinese concept stocks to return to Hong Kong stocks, followed by A shares. In addition, Singapore is also attracting IPOs from Chinese companies. July 29th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The stock price suddenly plummeted by 11% on the New York Stock Exchange. The main trigger came from the fact that the largest Chinese concept stock by market value was included in the \"pre-delisting\" list by the US Securities and Exchange Commission. After the U.S. \"Foreign Company Accountability Act\" came into effect in 2021, many Chinese companies listed in the United States were included in the \"pre-delisting\" list of U.S. stocks by the U.S. for \"audit reasons\". Experts believe that Chinese concept stocks need to be more and more prepared for the future U.S. capital market. Be prepared for the trend of \"politicization\".</p><p>Return to Hong Kong Dual Primary Listing</p><p>Also on the list with Alibaba<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOGU\">Mushroom Street</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCM\">Cheetah Mobile</a>。 As of the end of July, the US Securities and Exchange Commission had included 159 Chinese concept stocks in the list of \"to be delisted\" in accordance with the US Foreign Companies Accountability Act. The Wall Street Journal reported that after the Foreign Companies Accountability Act takes effect in 2021, the United States can ban the securities transactions of companies whose audit firms have not been inspected by U.S. audit oversight agencies for three consecutive years.</p><p>Some media said that if China and the United States fail to reach a consensus and complete the inspection of accounting firms in 2022, 192 Chinese concept stock companies may be forced to delist in 2023. As of March this year, a total of 261 Chinese companies were listed in the United States, with a total market value of about $1.3 trillion, according to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Committee.</p><p>On July 26, Alibaba announced its application for dual primary listing in Hong Kong. At present, the uncertainty of U.S. regulatory policy is threatening all Chinese concept stocks including Ali. Realizing a \"dual primary listing\" in Hong Kong can greatly reduce potential risks.</p><p>After Alibaba announced its decision, it was listed on Nasdaq on the 27th<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">Kingsoft Cloud</a>Also applied for dual primary listing in Hong Kong. The Wall Street Journal stated that Kingsoft Cloud was submitting to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00388\">HKEX</a>According to the preliminary prospectus, it plans to use the proceeds from the issuance to upgrade the technical infrastructure, including the purchase of high-performance servers and data center services.</p><p>According to reports, earlier this year, a video sharing platform company listed on Nasdaq<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>A similar plan has also been put forward, intending to change the secondary listing status of Hong Kong stocks to the primary listing. According to statistics, at least more than 10 Chinese concept stocks on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange have completed or are applying for conversion to dual primary listings. The vast majority of Chinese concept stocks recently listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange choose the same dual primary listing method as Ali, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TUYA\">Tuya Smart</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNSO\">MINISO</a>Etc.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Analysts in the research department believe that by choosing dual primary listing in Hong Kong, leading high-quality companies can not only enjoy the rich liquidity brought by being included in Hong Kong Stock Connect, but also ensure that their primary listing status will not be damaged under extreme delisting situations overseas.</p><p>Hong Kong A shares welcome Chinese concept stocks</p><p>Dong Dengxin, director of the Institute of Financial Securities of Wuhan University of Science and Technology, said in an interview with the Global Times on July 31 that Chinese companies were keen to go public in European and American capital markets before, mainly because the European and American market systems are mature and the market capacity is large, especially the American capital market has a high degree of recognition for entrepreneurial and unprofitable companies, and usually gives higher valuations. Therefore, some growing companies that have not yet met the financial requirements for listing in the mainland are more keen to list in the United States. This is conducive to Chinese enterprises connecting with the mature global management system and exploring the global market.</p><p>\"The return of Chinese concept stocks is the general trend in the context of increasing listing risks in the United States.\" Dong Dengxin said that the return of qualified Chinese concept stocks to Hong Kong stocks is the first choice, followed by the return to A shares. Dong Dengxin believes that the stay of Chinese concept stocks largely depends on the cooperation between Chinese and American regulators, but the \"politicization\" trend of the US capital market requires Chinese concept stocks to be fully psychologically prepared for this.</p><p>After Alibaba announced its application for dual listing in Hong Kong, Xu Zhengyu, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government, said that at present, 70% of Chinese concept stocks listed in the United States have returned to Hong Kong for primary or secondary listing. He said that Hong Kong welcomes any enterprise that meets the standards and requirements of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to come to Hong Kong to raise funds.</p><p>Hong Kong Financial Secretary Chen Maobo previously stated that the innovation of listing rules will help further attract high-quality Chinese concept stocks to be listed in Hong Kong, enrich market choices, increase market liquidity, and enhance the competitiveness of Hong Kong's global financing platform. Hong Kong's \"Sing Tao Daily\" recently stated that Hong Kong is still the first choice for the return of Chinese concept stocks, especially large enterprises, mainly considering market liquidity and local investor portfolio.</p><p>On March 25, 2022, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued the Interim Measures for CDR Listing and Trading, supporting the return of Chinese concept stocks with a market value of more than 20 billion yuan to A-share listing. This path allows companies to go back to the Science and Technology Innovation Board for listing while retaining the red-chip structure. In May 2019,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>Announced delisting from the US stock market. July 16, 2020,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">SMIC</a>The successful listing on the Science and Technology Innovation Board has become an important case for red-chip companies to return to A-shares.</p><p>Singapore attracts IPOs from Chinese companies</p><p>\"Singapore pays attention to the listing of Chinese companies to hedge risks.\" Bloomberg News recently reported that the shrinkage of the new stock market of SGX for many years may soon end, because more Chinese concept stocks aimed at reducing political risks between China and the United States, as well as unicorns in Southeast Asia (startups with a valuation of more than US $1 billion) seek to raise funds for listing in Singapore.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/S68.SI\">Singapore Exchange</a>Bao Desheng, head of global sales and development, said that in the next five years, the SGX may have 30 to 40 initial and secondary listings a year-more than double the average of about 13 listings a year since 2017. Bao Desheng also said that SGX is negotiating and communicating with more than 100 companies in China and Southeast Asia, covering financial technology, consumer technology, real estate investment trusts and other fields.</p><p>According to Bloomberg News, the number of newly listed companies on the SGX has continued to decrease in the past decade or so. Therefore, SGX is stepping up negotiations with Chinese companies seeking to list outside the United States or Hong Kong, China, and interested in increasing their popularity in Southeast Asia.</p><p>In 2021, there were 8 companies listed on SGX. On April 28 this year, Yangzijiang Financial Holdings Co., Ltd. was listed on SGX.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>On May 20th, it was officially listed in Singapore for the second time, and its shares listed on SGX will be fully interchangeable with American depositary receipts listed on NYSE.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3666316\">环球时报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0f5de7b05d2e007b8f20e57385c23cd","relate_stocks":{"TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3666316","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1146279071","content_text":"专家表示,符合条件的中概股回归港股是首选,其次是A股,此外新加坡也正在吸引中企IPO。7月29日,阿里巴巴股价在纽交所突然大跌11%,主要导火索来自于这家市值最大的中概股被美国证监会列入“预摘牌”名单。在2021年美国《外国公司问责法》生效后,在美国上市的多家中企被美方以“审计原因”列入美股“预摘牌”名单,专家认为中概股需要为未来美国资本市场愈发“政治化”的趋势做好准备。回港双重主要上市与阿里巴巴一同列入名单的还有蘑菇街和猎豹移动。截至7月底,美国证监会根据美国《外国公司问责法》已将159家中概股列入“欲摘牌”名单中。《华尔街日报》报道称,《外国公司问责法》2021年生效后,美国可以禁止那些审计公司连续三年不接受美国审计监督机构检查的公司的证券交易。有媒体称,若中美双方无法在2022年内达成共识并完成对会计师事务所的检查,192家中概股公司或将在2023年被迫摘牌。根据美中经济和安全审议委员会的数据,截至今年3月,共有261家中国公司在美国上市,总市值约为1.3万亿美元。7月26日,阿里巴巴宣布申请在香港实现双重主要上市。目前美国监管政策的不确定性,正在威胁阿里在内的所有中概股。而在香港实现“双重主要上市”则能大大减少潜在风险。在阿里巴巴宣布决定后,27日在纳斯达克上市的金山云也申请在香港双重主要上市。《华尔街日报》称,金山云在递交给香港交易所的初步招股书中表示,计划将发行所得资金用于升级技术基础建设,包括购买高性能服务器及数据中心服务。报道称,今年早些时候,在纳斯达克上市的视频分享平台公司哔哩哔哩也提出了类似计划,打算将港股第二上市地位转为主要上市。据统计,港交所至少有超过10家中概股已经完成或正在申请转换为双重主要上市。近期在港交所挂牌的中概股,绝大多数选择与阿里一样的双重主要上市方式,包括贝壳、知乎、涂鸦智能和名创优品等。中金公司研究部的分析师认为,选择在香港双重主要上市,头部优质企业不仅可以享受纳入港股通所带来的丰富流动性,也可保证在海外极端摘牌情境下主上市地位不受损。港股A股迎接中概股武汉科技大学金融证券研究所所长董登新7月31日接受《环球时报》采访时表示,此前中国企业热衷赴欧美资本市场上市,主要是因为欧美市场制度成熟,市场容量大,尤其是美国资本市场对于创业型且未盈利的公司具有较高的认可度,通常会给予较高的估值。因此,一些正在成长中、在财务上尚未达到在内地上市要求的公司比较热衷于在美国上市。这有利于中国企业接轨全球成熟的管理制度,开拓全球市场。“在美国上市风险不断加大的情况下中概股回归是大势所趋。”董登新表示,符合条件的中概股回归港股是首选,其次是回归A股。董登新认为,中概股去留很大程度上取决于中美监管间的合作,但美国资本市场“政治化”趋势需要中概股对此做好充足心理准备。阿里巴巴公布申请在香港双重上市后,香港特别行政区政府财经事务及库务局局长许正宇表示,目前有70%在美国上市的中概股已回港作第一或第二上市,他说,香港欢迎任何符合港交所标准和要求的企业来港集资。香港财政司司长陈茂波此前表示,上市规则创新将有利进一步吸纳优质中概股在港上市,丰富市场选择,增加市场流动性,提升香港全球融资平台的竞争力。香港《星岛日报》近日称,主要考虑市场流动性及当地投资者组合,香港目前仍然是中概股回归首选地,尤其是大型企业。2022年3月25日上交所和深交所发布CDR上市交易暂行办法,支持200亿人民币以上市值中概股回A股上市。此条路径允许企业在保留红筹架构的情况下回科创板上市。2019年5月,中芯国际宣布从美股退市。2020年7月16日,中芯国际成功在科创板挂牌上市,成为红筹公司回归A股的重要案例。新加坡吸引中企IPO“新加坡关注中国企业上市以对冲风险。”美国彭博社近日报道称,新交所新股市场多年来萎缩的情况可能会很快结束,因为将有更多为降低中美政治风险的中概股,及东南亚的独角兽企业(估值超过10亿美元的初创公司)寻求在新加坡上市融资。新加坡交易所全球销售及拓展部主管保得胜表示,未来五年内,新交所每年可能会有30到40家首次和二次上市——是自 2017年以来平均每年约13家上市的两倍多。保得胜还称,新交所正在与中国和东南亚的100多家公司谈判沟通,涵盖金融科技、消费科技类、地产投资信托等领域。据彭博社报道,新交所近十几年来新上市公司数量持续减少。因此新交所正加紧与寻求在美国或中国香港以外上市,以及有意提高在东南亚知名度的中国公司进行谈判。2021年,有8家公司在新交所上市。今年4月28日,扬子江金融控股有限公司在新交所上市。蔚来5月20日正式在新加坡二次上市,其新交所上市的股票将完全可与纽交所上市的美国存托凭证互换。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QNETCN":0.9,"TTTN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":398,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9073786647,"gmtCreate":1657418295389,"gmtModify":1676536004773,"author":{"id":"4087300025751020","authorId":"4087300025751020","name":"老八公","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27256ede8324832365cde987fa4cf48","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087300025751020","idStr":"4087300025751020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9073786647","repostId":"1172335974","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172335974","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657272279,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172335974?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-08 17:24","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Behind Abe's assassination, how did the Japanese economy \"lose\" for three decades?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172335974","media":"风暴眼工作室","summary":"7月8日,日本前首相安倍晋三遭遇枪击的消息震惊全世界。据央视报道,当地时间8日,日本前首相安倍晋三当天上午在奈良发表演讲时中枪 。据悉,安倍晋三在上救护车时还有意识,目前安倍晋三已经没有生命体征。日元","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On July 8th, the news that former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot shocked the whole world.</p><p>According to CCTV reports, on the 8th local time, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot when he delivered a speech in Nara that morning. It is reported that Shinzo Abe was still conscious when he got on the ambulance. At present, Shinzo Abe has no vital signs.</p><p>The yen exchange rate was also affected. As of 11:30 on July 8, the decline of the US dollar against the yen expanded to 0.47% to 135.37, and the yen appreciated.</p><p>Why did the yen suddenly appreciate after Abe's assassination? Perhaps it has something to do with the \"Abenomics\" promoted during his term of office. After Shinzo Abe took office at the end of 2012, he accelerated the implementation of a series of economic stimulus policies, the most notable of which was the loose monetary policy, and the yen exchange rate began to depreciate at an accelerated pace.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the yen exchange rate has continued to fall more obviously. On June 13th, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar once fell below the 135 yen to 1 US dollar mark, setting a new low in about 24 years. In more than a year since the beginning of 2021, the yen has depreciated significantly by more than 25% relative to the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73ac608c7438fa9083c60e6af1c6dfd9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As a traditional safe-haven currency, it continued to plummet, causing Japanese bonds and yen assets to begin to be sold off sharply.</p><p>While Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated his view that the Bank of Japan must maintain its massive stimulus plan to shore up the fragile economic recovery.</p><p>But for ordinary Japanese, it is still debatable whether the fragile economic recovery needs to be supported by the sharp depreciation of the yen. After all, as a big importer, Japan's energy dependence on foreign countries is as high as 88%, and its food self-sufficiency rate is only 37%. The rise in commodity prices brought about by the depreciation of the yen will directly affect citizens' lives.</p><p>Especially after so many years of substantial easing, since the Japanese economy collapsed in 1990, Japan's average annual GDP growth rate has been less than 1%.</p><p>The real estate has been widened, the price has been widened, but the disposable income of residents has not been widened, and people somewhat lack confidence. After experiencing the \"lost decade\", \"lost twenty years\" and \"lost thirty years\", Japan's lost eyes are going to the time dimension of Atlantis.</p><p>In the fourth decade, will Japan be able to make a comeback?</p><p><b>Abe and his \"Abenomics\"</b></p><p>Although Shinzo Abe resigned as prime minister in August 2020, the sharp depreciation of the yen is closely related to his \"Abenomics\".</p><p>At the end of 2012, Shinzo Abe once again served as the Prime Minister of Japan, and immediately threw out the route of \"fighting for the economy\", which was heated as \"Abenomics\" by the media.</p><p>The so-called \"Abenomics\" is a policy combination to solve Japan's economic problems through experimental monetary policy (QQE for short), proactive fiscal policy and economic structural reform. Including \"three major strategies\":</p><p>First, it proposed the largest quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy in Japanese history, and the central bank purchased 7.5 trillion yen of Treasury Bond every month;</p><p>Second, break through the expansionary fiscal policy of the previous government with a total budget of 70 trillion yen;</p><p>Third, a package of growth strategies including the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPP), deregulation to arouse private investment and promote innovation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79ef0cf1ad82f6f4d2dbd2d9e5cde013\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Abenomics is the latest effort to solve Japan's economic downturn since 1990s. So how effective is the implementation?</p><p>An analysis article of global macro speculation pointed out that Abenomics is a great economic experiment. Japanese financiers and politicians broke stereotypes and used a three-pronged approach of structural adjustment, fiscal and monetary policies to increase Japan's potential economic growth rate and overcome deflation. The first three years of the experiment were quite successful.</p><p>At the same time, the article also pointed out that \"Abenomics\" was bleak from 2016 to 2020. Under the impact of COVID-19 pandemic, some Abenomics goals have been achieved, especially inflation expectations, yen exchange rate, real interest rates and stock prices. However, the potential output growth in the same period is not good, which proves that structural reform is not being promoted effectively.</p><p>Zhang Jifeng, deputy director of the Japanese Institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that Abe's achievements in economic governance are obvious to all, but there are also serious problems. One of the most serious problems is the difficult financial situation, which has never changed.</p><p>Liu Yun, an associate researcher at the Northeast Asia Institute of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, believes that if we only look at Japan's GDP, there will be a misunderstanding that Abenomics is not very successful. But on the whole, the Japanese economy is an upward attitude. For example, wages in Japan have increased and profits of large enterprises have grown well, so the Japanese economic situation has improved.</p><p><b>\"Lost\" began in 1990</b></p><p>The original intention of \"Abenomics\" is to save Japan's persistently sluggish economy. The \"lost decade\" was first put forward when the Japanese stock market bubble burst in 1990.</p><p>More than ten years before the bursting of the bubble that devastated Japan, Japan was once a \"miracle-making country\".</p><p>From the early labor-intensive enterprises such as cotton textile, they began to accumulate capital, and then took manufacturing as the core industry, actively expanded investment, introduced foreign advanced technology, and quickly rebuilt the domestic industrial system from the ruins after the war.</p><p>By 1964, the Tokyo Olympic Games became an important symbol of Japan's economic development and transformation. Due to the demand for steel for large-scale infrastructure construction and the demand for color TVs at the opening of the Olympic Games, Japan's steel and electromechanical industries flourished, and Japan experienced a complete \"The development stage from exchanging shirts for planes\" to \"Made in Japan\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0a4f35b86afc5382004806076b2487\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 1965, Japan's steel exports to the United States accounted for half of the total imports of the United States. In 1968, Japan became the world's second largest economy after the United States.</p><p>At the same time, Japan has firmly grasped the new generation of industrial revolution. Automobiles, steel, telecommunications, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals have comprehensively dominated the US market, and Hitachi, NEC, Fujitsu, Mitsubishi and Toshiba have joined forces.</p><p>In the consecutive trade deficits of the United States with Japan that year, the industrial giants suffered losses year after year, and Intel was even on the verge of bankruptcy.</p><p>Under the dilemma of being beaten by Japanese goods, the United States launched a trade war that Chinese people now look familiar-</p><p>Since 1981, Japanese cars sold all over the world have been heavily taxed by the United States, and their export quotas have been restricted.</p><p>At the same time, the United States imposed 100% tariffs on Japanese high-tech products such as computers and televisions on the grounds of \"dumping behavior\" by Japan. Japanese semiconductors were set a lower export price limit, and Japanese chips were subject to 100% punitive tariffs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2325f7d267568d30d4ad4c0f6022d74e\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>U.S. lawmakers smash Japanese products live</p><p>In addition, the executives of Japanese enterprises were arrested in the name of \"industrial espionage\". Japan was accused by the United States of being a \"currency manipulator\" and stealing intellectual property rights from the United States, and was asked to increase the import of American agricultural products, cancel the trade terms unfavorable to foreign companies, let Japan impose voluntary export restrictions in textiles, steel, television and machine tools, and at the same time carry out factory transfer and industrial upgrading...</p><p>While constantly accusing Japan of supporting industrial policies through the state, the United States introduced a new trade law in 1988, activating the \"Super 301\" clause-openly legislating to interfere with Japan's industrial and trade policies, forcing Japan to carry out institutional reforms.</p><p>In 1989, Japan and the United States began negotiations on the \"Japan-US Structural Agreement\", and negotiated on economic policies, systems and corporate behaviors, which prompted Japan to carry out open reforms in circulation system and business practices: for example, taking housing as a strategic industry and further opening up the circulation system; Further open up the domestic market and reorganize the import and export system in accordance with the principle of free trade.</p><p>By 1989, the U.S. Trade Representative had initiated a total of 24 Section 301 investigations against Japan, almost all of which were made concessions by the Japanese government.</p><p>At the same time, due to the \"Plaza Accord\" reached by the United States, Japan, the Federal Republic of Germany, France and the United Kingdom in 1985, the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar was forced to appreciate sharply. After \"Black Monday\" in October 1987, the yen appreciated to 120 yen/dollar, with an increase of 90% in 1988.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ab4dd9acfe04f8aab569cb046a73ff\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Plaza agreement signing site</p><p>The sharp appreciation of the yen has dealt a devastating blow to Japan, which is mainly an export-oriented economy. Production costs have risen sharply, and high-quality enterprises have begun to flee overseas. In order to cope with the exchange rate crisis, the Japanese government has begun to cut interest rates sharply, hoping to \"send money\" so that enterprises can invest and set up factories at low cost.</p><p>But in fact, due to the long industrial return cycle, a large amount of yen lent at low interest rate has not been invested in the real economy, and the abundant liquidity of the money market has begun to flow into the housing market, stock market and luxury goods market with the \"strength\" of the yen's sharp appreciation after the Plaza Accord.</p><p>Since 1986, Japan's rapidly expanding economic prosperity has been called the \"Heisei Boom\". At the end of 1985, the Nikkei 225 stock price index closed at 13,083 points and at the end of 1989, it closed at 38,916 points. In four years, the Nikkei 225 index rose by 197.45%, and the total market value of stocks continued to expand to 896 trillion yen, accounting for 60% of Japan's gross national product that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5d38582a2e3123322a61e5b005f13f\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Japanese streets in the 1980s</p><p>The land price in Tokyo is soaring, and the land price of the Tokyo Imperial Palace of the Japanese Emperor exceeds the land valuation of the whole France; A 10,000 yen note in the Ginza area is thrown on the ground, and you can't buy the small piece of land it covers.</p><p>At the same time, the Japanese have become the world's largest consumers of luxury goods. They have swept watch shops, jewelry stores and wine houses all over the world. Foreign banks and securities companies have counted their money in the Japanese market.</p><p>After a large number of short-selling options on stock indexes that completely deviate from economic reality, the bubble broke out when it expanded to the extreme.</p><p>In October 1990, Japan's five-year bull market ended, and the stock market plummeted by 63.24%, creating the largest decline in the history of the Japanese stock market. The following year, the property market plummeted by 65%, bankrupt enterprises emerged in an endless stream, the number of unemployed people surged, and the wealth of the whole country shrank by nearly 50%.</p><p>At the same time, the short-term sharp recession has caused countless ordinary people who have no time to get out to be \"stuck\" by various capital investment targets, and a major economic reshuffle has allowed the wealth of the whole society to be transferred to the hands of a few winners.</p><p>Since then, the Japanese economy has been in a downturn for a long time.</p><p>The Nikkei Average Index went from a historical high of 38,957 on December 29, 1989 to a low of 6,994.9 on October 29, 2008, with a cumulative decline of more than 82%. In the next four years, the Nikkei Average Index still hovered around 10,000 points.</p><p>That is to say, since the late 1990s, the \"lost decade\" of Japanese economy has been reported in newspapers, and the problem has not been solved so far.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ced67142e550e77f5f84c394cba59c8d\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What exactly has Japan lost in 30 years?</b></p><p>In 2010, as the Japanese economy still did not improve, the media began to put forward the \"lost twenty years\" of the Japanese economy.</p><p>In fact, \"twenty years\" is still not the end of Japan's economic downturn. Counting from the highest closing point in the history of the Nikkei 225 Index at 38,957, it has been falling all the way since then, falling to less than 10,000 points many times during this period, and it did not stop falling until 2017.</p><p>At the close of trading on July 7, 2022, the Nikkei 225 Index closed at 26,490.53 points, still more than 10,000 points away from its highest point.</p><p>The \"Plaza Accord\", which caused the yen to appreciate sharply, is considered by many people to be the root cause of the Great Depression caused by Japan's bubble economy.</p><p>However, in the analysis of this Great Depression, the criticism of the Plaza Accord is not consistent. Former Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Finance of Japan, Toyo Tian, even personally refuted this view.</p><p>Because from 1985 to 1990, with overseas investment under the strong yen, Japan's overseas net assets rose from more than 1 trillion US dollars to more than 3 trillion US dollars, that is, the so-called \"there is another Japan besides Japan\"--</p><p>The 300% appreciation of the yen in 10 years is accompanied by a huge increase in production costs and labor costs. In order to maintain their competitiveness, a large number of Japanese companies have to look overseas, which makes Japanese companies' capital flow out rapidly.</p><p>The rapidly appreciating yen and the increasingly anxious Japan-US trade war have also boosted this outflow-the strong yen is convenient for Japanese companies to invest and acquire overseas companies, while building factories abroad can bypass the US sanctions on \"Made in Japan\".</p><p>From 1985 to 1990, Japanese companies carried out a total of 21 huge overseas mergers and acquisitions worth more than 50 billion yen.</p><p>In 1989, Rockefeller Center bought by Mitsubishi for $1.4 billion, Universal Pictures bought by Panasonic for $6 billion, and Columbia Pictures bought by Sony for $3.4 billion-including the copyright of Spider-Man that Marvel Comics has not been able to recover now;</p><p>The Japanese are even ambitious to buy the United States as \"Japan's forty-first county\". Why does the city look so like Tokyo from the 70th floor of the InterContinental Los Angeles Hotel?</p><p>Because the Japanese bought half of the real estate here back then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6420f38680bf983f828177b00418e180\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Japanese scholar Ito Gan wrote in Anger Across the Pacific that some Japanese people believe that Japan will become the next \"superpower\" and the government will lead the people to \"end the American era\".</p><p>It's just that these real estates belong to giant enterprises, consortia, speculators and wealthy foreign businessmen, but they don't belong to the Japanese people alone.</p><p>In 2020, \"Sankei Shimbun\" reported that the revenue of Japanese overseas local legal persons has increased by 220% in the past 20 years. According to OECD statistics, Japan's per capita purchasing power level in 2020 is only US $39,000, an increase of only US $39,000 from 1990. 4%.</p><p><b>1. Thirty years of unmoved income</b></p><p>After 1900, Japan's investment activities came to an abrupt end.</p><p>Banks go bankrupt, factories go bankrupt, mortgage disasters, and banks full of non-performing assets have to merge and reorganize; The sharply rising production costs have caused a large number of enterprises to close down, and the worst thing is ordinary people-they have been laid off in the tide of bankruptcies, their lifelong savings have volatilized in the bubble crisis, and they have to bear heavy mortgages.</p><p>However, after the collapse of the lifelong employment system and the merit sequence, they worked overtime in order to keep their jobs. Although the \"social animal\" culture was not born in Japan's bubble crisis, it has been solidified since then-accepting competition and the supremacy of production efficiency. The squeezing of gears on themselves has become the most helpless choice for Japanese migrant workers.</p><p>However, the torrent of social development pushed the Japanese forward, but it failed to give them the due reward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11648f82b27132391bb1a6cef2c3432a\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In February 2021, the \"Diligence Statistics Survey\" released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan showed that Japan's per capita monthly salary in 2020 was 318,299 yen, or about 19,600 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, the largest decrease in 12 years.</p><p>This figure was about 350,000 yuan in 1990, when the average annual income of Japanese people was 4.25 million yen. Based on the exchange rate at that time, the monthly salary was about 11,600 yuan.</p><p>The average annual income of \"standing still\" for 30 consecutive years has become the most violent \"contraceptive pill\" in Japan.</p><p><b>2. Irreversible aging</b></p><p>In 2020, Japan's total population ranked 11th in the world, falling out of the top ten for the first time since 1950. From 1974 to 2020, Japan's birth rate dropped from 1.86% to 0.67%, and it began to fall into negative population growth for 13 consecutive years around 2008.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's elderly population aged 65 and above reached 36.4 million, accounting for 29.1% of the total population.</p><p>The declining birthrate and aging have caused Japan to fall into a serious shortage of labor supply and slow down in labor productivity growth, thus causing the economic growth to continue to slow down:</p><p>\"From 1961 to 2020, Japan's working-age population growth rate, labor productivity growth rate and economic trend basically changed synchronously. From 1961 to 1975, the average growth rate of Japan's working-age population remained at a high level of 1.6%, and the growth rate of labor productivity reached a peak of 8.4%. The average growth rate of real GDP also remained at a high level of 7.7%; From 1976 to 1988, the working-age population and labor productivity maintained a low growth rate of 0.9% and 3.7% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate also dropped to 4.4%; From 1989 to 2020, the growth rates of working-age population and labor productivity dropped sharply from 0.9% and 4.4% to-0.8% and 1.1% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate dropped from 5.4% to-4.4%. \"</p><p>With the decline of the labor force and the decrease of tax revenue, the expenses such as pensions that need to be spent are rapidly expanding. Since 1990, the number of people living on pensions has been five times that of taxpayers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c92a0dfa8f71abcdb41b554124294a7\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 2004, Japan launched the pension reform, increasing the tax revenue by 0.354% every year. By 2017, the pension paid by taxpayers had accounted for 18.3% of their annual income, which became a heavy burden for the Japanese people.</p><p>The ranking of Japan's Human Development Index (which measures per capita GDP, education, and medical care) dropped from the first place in the world in 1990 to the 19th place in the world in 2020.</p><p>At the same time, Japanese young people have a negative attitude towards life, low material desire and lack of motivation for struggle due to the decline in expected income, resulting in \"hikikomori\". According to the definition of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan, hikikomori are people who stay at home for more than 6 months and almost cut off contact with the outside world. According to the data of the Survey on Living Conditions of the Cabinet Office of Japan, there are 541,000 hikikomori aged 15-39 and 40-64, respectively.</p><p>The consumption and house purchase demand of the elderly are far lower than those of young people, and young people seriously lack consumption desire, which makes it difficult to significantly increase total consumption. Japan has fallen into a \"low desire society\".</p><p><b>3. Lifelong QE, but always weak</b></p><p>In 2021, Japan's total GDP of 4,937.4 billion US dollars will fall from the \"5 prefix\", but it is still an economic power that stands out from Europe and ranks as the third largest economy in the world. It doesn't seem to be bad.</p><p>But in fact, Japan's GDP reached 5.55 trillion US dollars in 1995. At that time, the ratio of Japan's GDP to the GDP of the United States was 71.34%. In 2021, this ratio became 21.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0823be1f503a8cdff0d86e9ba57b90cf\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compared with the glory of the past, today's Japan is indeed somewhat embarrassed.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's macro leverage ratio also leads the world. According to the latest data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), at the end of the second quarter of 2021, the macro leverage ratios of various countries were 286.2% in the United States, 284.3% in the Eurozone, and 416.5% in Japan.</p><p>The huge debt scale comes from decades of Japanese quantitative easing.</p><p>Quantitative easing is a Japanese innovation in the field of finance.</p><p>In 1998, the Bank of Japan began to implement the policy of zero interest rate and quantitative easing for the first time, that is, to regulate economic activities by controlling the currency supply.</p><p>In 2013, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda launched a monetary policy stimulus plan to boost inflation.</p><p>Since 2013, the yen has continued to depreciate against the US dollar, and exports have achieved a substantial increase; At the same time, the Japanese benchmark interest rate has been falling all the way, and the ten-year Treasury Bond interest rate even dropped to a negative number in 2016.</p><p>At the same time, the Bank of Japan began to purchase ETFs (exchange-traded funds) on a large scale, with an average annual ETF purchase scale close to 4 trillion yen. By 2021, the Bank of Japan's stocks will account for more than 80% of stock ETFs, accounting for more than 80% of the total market value of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.</p><p>Although the Nikkei 225 index has strengthened all the way from around 8,000 points in 2012, and even broke through the 30,000-point mark in February 2021, this still seems to be a mirror-like bubble boom because of the huge amount injected by the Bank of Japan. The base currency has neither raised inflation nor driven economic growth.</p><p>In terms of economic structure, except for core basic raw materials, Japan still maintains its barrier advantage, and almost all other industries are hesitating. The markets of automobiles, shipbuilding, machine tools, and electronics industries are all being divided up by the United States, China, South Korea and other countries, and there are few achievements in emerging industries.</p><p>At present, the number of Japanese unicorn companies is only 6, which lags far behind the 554, 180, 64, 43, and 26 in the United States, China, India, Britain, and Germany, and their valuations are all less than US $2 billion.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's debt has expanded rapidly. As of the end of December 2021, Japan's national debt, composed of Treasury Bond, borrowings and short-term government securities, reached 1,218.4 trillion yen, and the per capita debt of Japanese citizens was approximately 9.71 million yen, or approximately RMB 534573 yuan.</p><p>However, at a time when central banks in the United States, Britain, and Europe have begun to tighten their pace, the Bank of Japan has not changed its loose monetary policy.</p><p><b>\"Against the market\" easing, unlimited money printing, yen falling streak</b></p><p>The yen's losing streak began in March.</p><p>After the Federal Reserve's rate hike landed in March and released signals that it would increase rate hike and accelerate shrinking balance sheet in the future, both Britain and Europe began to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy, but the Bank of Japan did the opposite and insisted on maintaining quantitative easing policy.</p><p>On March 28th, the Bank of Japan issued a press release announcing that it would launch a \"continuous designated price market operation\" measure to curb the rise of interest rates from March 29th to 31st, that is, to purchase public bonds from private financial institutions in unlimited amounts at designated interest rates.</p><p>On the same day, the yen exchange rate plunged 1.38%.</p><p>On April 20th, less than a month later, the Bank of Japan announced an unlimited purchase of 10-year Treasury Bond to defend the 0.25% yield ceiling of 10-year Japanese Treasury Bond, which once again pushed the depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Some experts believe that since the depreciation of the yen is beneficial to Japan's export-oriented economy, the Bank of Japan has always regarded the loose monetary environment as an important means to boost market expectations, especially when it has just entered the new fiscal year, it is even more difficult for the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy.</p><p>But can easing save Japan's economy?</p><p>In fact, Japan's trade structure is unstable. Since the Abe government came to power and introduced the unlimited stimulus policy, the total export volume has declined continuously from 2012 to 2015, and only maintained a trade surplus in 2016 and 2017.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2490580bd25519041d5aef1bb5c3c0\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Recently, global crude oil and raw material prices have soared, and the depreciation of the yen has raised the costs of Japanese companies and broadened the channels for imported inflation. At the same time, according to the \"Value-added Trade Statistics\" released by the OECD, the added value created in Japan has dropped from 94% in 1995 to 83% in 2018, a decrease of 11%. Japan's related high value-added products and services have It is increasingly difficult to offset its rising production costs.</p><p>The only beneficiary is Japanese local speculators. With the sharp landing of the Federal Reserve, U.S. bond yields continue to soar, and the spread between U.S. and Japanese Treasury Bond has become wider and wider, so local speculators have begun to short-sell Japanese yen on a large scale., borrowing yen to buy arbitrage of U.S. bonds.</p><p>What about ordinary people?</p><p>Rising prices have led to rising living costs and weakened consumption power, and the \"lost thirty years\" seems to be postponed again-the depreciation of the yen, which was recognized as \"beneficial to the economy\" by the Bank of Japan, has never effectively boosted Japan's economic growth for many years, but has prevented the Japanese economy from escaping from the large-scale financial easing policy for more than ten years.</p><p>Thirty years ago, then central bank governor Mie Yasu warned the government that a country must not survive by blowing economic bubbles, otherwise it will be a great harm to the country.</p><p>So shortly after he took office, Japan implemented a tightening monetary policy, greatly raised the loan interest rate and actively punctured the bubble. This hard landing plunged Japan into decades of depression, but it was often regarded by later generations as the decisive decision of \"a strong man breaking his wrist\".</p><p>It's just that the car in front has been overturned, and the car in front is unknown.</p><p>Thirty years later, Japan seems to be still the same Japan.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1639703443321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind Abe's assassination, how did the Japanese economy \"lose\" for three decades?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind Abe's assassination, how did the Japanese economy \"lose\" for three decades?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">风暴眼工作室</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-08 17:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On July 8th, the news that former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot shocked the whole world.</p><p>According to CCTV reports, on the 8th local time, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot when he delivered a speech in Nara that morning. It is reported that Shinzo Abe was still conscious when he got on the ambulance. At present, Shinzo Abe has no vital signs.</p><p>The yen exchange rate was also affected. As of 11:30 on July 8, the decline of the US dollar against the yen expanded to 0.47% to 135.37, and the yen appreciated.</p><p>Why did the yen suddenly appreciate after Abe's assassination? Perhaps it has something to do with the \"Abenomics\" promoted during his term of office. After Shinzo Abe took office at the end of 2012, he accelerated the implementation of a series of economic stimulus policies, the most notable of which was the loose monetary policy, and the yen exchange rate began to depreciate at an accelerated pace.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the yen exchange rate has continued to fall more obviously. On June 13th, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar once fell below the 135 yen to 1 US dollar mark, setting a new low in about 24 years. In more than a year since the beginning of 2021, the yen has depreciated significantly by more than 25% relative to the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73ac608c7438fa9083c60e6af1c6dfd9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As a traditional safe-haven currency, it continued to plummet, causing Japanese bonds and yen assets to begin to be sold off sharply.</p><p>While Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated his view that the Bank of Japan must maintain its massive stimulus plan to shore up the fragile economic recovery.</p><p>But for ordinary Japanese, it is still debatable whether the fragile economic recovery needs to be supported by the sharp depreciation of the yen. After all, as a big importer, Japan's energy dependence on foreign countries is as high as 88%, and its food self-sufficiency rate is only 37%. The rise in commodity prices brought about by the depreciation of the yen will directly affect citizens' lives.</p><p>Especially after so many years of substantial easing, since the Japanese economy collapsed in 1990, Japan's average annual GDP growth rate has been less than 1%.</p><p>The real estate has been widened, the price has been widened, but the disposable income of residents has not been widened, and people somewhat lack confidence. After experiencing the \"lost decade\", \"lost twenty years\" and \"lost thirty years\", Japan's lost eyes are going to the time dimension of Atlantis.</p><p>In the fourth decade, will Japan be able to make a comeback?</p><p><b>Abe and his \"Abenomics\"</b></p><p>Although Shinzo Abe resigned as prime minister in August 2020, the sharp depreciation of the yen is closely related to his \"Abenomics\".</p><p>At the end of 2012, Shinzo Abe once again served as the Prime Minister of Japan, and immediately threw out the route of \"fighting for the economy\", which was heated as \"Abenomics\" by the media.</p><p>The so-called \"Abenomics\" is a policy combination to solve Japan's economic problems through experimental monetary policy (QQE for short), proactive fiscal policy and economic structural reform. Including \"three major strategies\":</p><p>First, it proposed the largest quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy in Japanese history, and the central bank purchased 7.5 trillion yen of Treasury Bond every month;</p><p>Second, break through the expansionary fiscal policy of the previous government with a total budget of 70 trillion yen;</p><p>Third, a package of growth strategies including the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPP), deregulation to arouse private investment and promote innovation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79ef0cf1ad82f6f4d2dbd2d9e5cde013\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Abenomics is the latest effort to solve Japan's economic downturn since 1990s. So how effective is the implementation?</p><p>An analysis article of global macro speculation pointed out that Abenomics is a great economic experiment. Japanese financiers and politicians broke stereotypes and used a three-pronged approach of structural adjustment, fiscal and monetary policies to increase Japan's potential economic growth rate and overcome deflation. The first three years of the experiment were quite successful.</p><p>At the same time, the article also pointed out that \"Abenomics\" was bleak from 2016 to 2020. Under the impact of COVID-19 pandemic, some Abenomics goals have been achieved, especially inflation expectations, yen exchange rate, real interest rates and stock prices. However, the potential output growth in the same period is not good, which proves that structural reform is not being promoted effectively.</p><p>Zhang Jifeng, deputy director of the Japanese Institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that Abe's achievements in economic governance are obvious to all, but there are also serious problems. One of the most serious problems is the difficult financial situation, which has never changed.</p><p>Liu Yun, an associate researcher at the Northeast Asia Institute of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, believes that if we only look at Japan's GDP, there will be a misunderstanding that Abenomics is not very successful. But on the whole, the Japanese economy is an upward attitude. For example, wages in Japan have increased and profits of large enterprises have grown well, so the Japanese economic situation has improved.</p><p><b>\"Lost\" began in 1990</b></p><p>The original intention of \"Abenomics\" is to save Japan's persistently sluggish economy. The \"lost decade\" was first put forward when the Japanese stock market bubble burst in 1990.</p><p>More than ten years before the bursting of the bubble that devastated Japan, Japan was once a \"miracle-making country\".</p><p>From the early labor-intensive enterprises such as cotton textile, they began to accumulate capital, and then took manufacturing as the core industry, actively expanded investment, introduced foreign advanced technology, and quickly rebuilt the domestic industrial system from the ruins after the war.</p><p>By 1964, the Tokyo Olympic Games became an important symbol of Japan's economic development and transformation. Due to the demand for steel for large-scale infrastructure construction and the demand for color TVs at the opening of the Olympic Games, Japan's steel and electromechanical industries flourished, and Japan experienced a complete \"The development stage from exchanging shirts for planes\" to \"Made in Japan\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0a4f35b86afc5382004806076b2487\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 1965, Japan's steel exports to the United States accounted for half of the total imports of the United States. In 1968, Japan became the world's second largest economy after the United States.</p><p>At the same time, Japan has firmly grasped the new generation of industrial revolution. Automobiles, steel, telecommunications, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals have comprehensively dominated the US market, and Hitachi, NEC, Fujitsu, Mitsubishi and Toshiba have joined forces.</p><p>In the consecutive trade deficits of the United States with Japan that year, the industrial giants suffered losses year after year, and Intel was even on the verge of bankruptcy.</p><p>Under the dilemma of being beaten by Japanese goods, the United States launched a trade war that Chinese people now look familiar-</p><p>Since 1981, Japanese cars sold all over the world have been heavily taxed by the United States, and their export quotas have been restricted.</p><p>At the same time, the United States imposed 100% tariffs on Japanese high-tech products such as computers and televisions on the grounds of \"dumping behavior\" by Japan. Japanese semiconductors were set a lower export price limit, and Japanese chips were subject to 100% punitive tariffs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2325f7d267568d30d4ad4c0f6022d74e\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>U.S. lawmakers smash Japanese products live</p><p>In addition, the executives of Japanese enterprises were arrested in the name of \"industrial espionage\". Japan was accused by the United States of being a \"currency manipulator\" and stealing intellectual property rights from the United States, and was asked to increase the import of American agricultural products, cancel the trade terms unfavorable to foreign companies, let Japan impose voluntary export restrictions in textiles, steel, television and machine tools, and at the same time carry out factory transfer and industrial upgrading...</p><p>While constantly accusing Japan of supporting industrial policies through the state, the United States introduced a new trade law in 1988, activating the \"Super 301\" clause-openly legislating to interfere with Japan's industrial and trade policies, forcing Japan to carry out institutional reforms.</p><p>In 1989, Japan and the United States began negotiations on the \"Japan-US Structural Agreement\", and negotiated on economic policies, systems and corporate behaviors, which prompted Japan to carry out open reforms in circulation system and business practices: for example, taking housing as a strategic industry and further opening up the circulation system; Further open up the domestic market and reorganize the import and export system in accordance with the principle of free trade.</p><p>By 1989, the U.S. Trade Representative had initiated a total of 24 Section 301 investigations against Japan, almost all of which were made concessions by the Japanese government.</p><p>At the same time, due to the \"Plaza Accord\" reached by the United States, Japan, the Federal Republic of Germany, France and the United Kingdom in 1985, the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar was forced to appreciate sharply. After \"Black Monday\" in October 1987, the yen appreciated to 120 yen/dollar, with an increase of 90% in 1988.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ab4dd9acfe04f8aab569cb046a73ff\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Plaza agreement signing site</p><p>The sharp appreciation of the yen has dealt a devastating blow to Japan, which is mainly an export-oriented economy. Production costs have risen sharply, and high-quality enterprises have begun to flee overseas. In order to cope with the exchange rate crisis, the Japanese government has begun to cut interest rates sharply, hoping to \"send money\" so that enterprises can invest and set up factories at low cost.</p><p>But in fact, due to the long industrial return cycle, a large amount of yen lent at low interest rate has not been invested in the real economy, and the abundant liquidity of the money market has begun to flow into the housing market, stock market and luxury goods market with the \"strength\" of the yen's sharp appreciation after the Plaza Accord.</p><p>Since 1986, Japan's rapidly expanding economic prosperity has been called the \"Heisei Boom\". At the end of 1985, the Nikkei 225 stock price index closed at 13,083 points and at the end of 1989, it closed at 38,916 points. In four years, the Nikkei 225 index rose by 197.45%, and the total market value of stocks continued to expand to 896 trillion yen, accounting for 60% of Japan's gross national product that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5d38582a2e3123322a61e5b005f13f\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Japanese streets in the 1980s</p><p>The land price in Tokyo is soaring, and the land price of the Tokyo Imperial Palace of the Japanese Emperor exceeds the land valuation of the whole France; A 10,000 yen note in the Ginza area is thrown on the ground, and you can't buy the small piece of land it covers.</p><p>At the same time, the Japanese have become the world's largest consumers of luxury goods. They have swept watch shops, jewelry stores and wine houses all over the world. Foreign banks and securities companies have counted their money in the Japanese market.</p><p>After a large number of short-selling options on stock indexes that completely deviate from economic reality, the bubble broke out when it expanded to the extreme.</p><p>In October 1990, Japan's five-year bull market ended, and the stock market plummeted by 63.24%, creating the largest decline in the history of the Japanese stock market. The following year, the property market plummeted by 65%, bankrupt enterprises emerged in an endless stream, the number of unemployed people surged, and the wealth of the whole country shrank by nearly 50%.</p><p>At the same time, the short-term sharp recession has caused countless ordinary people who have no time to get out to be \"stuck\" by various capital investment targets, and a major economic reshuffle has allowed the wealth of the whole society to be transferred to the hands of a few winners.</p><p>Since then, the Japanese economy has been in a downturn for a long time.</p><p>The Nikkei Average Index went from a historical high of 38,957 on December 29, 1989 to a low of 6,994.9 on October 29, 2008, with a cumulative decline of more than 82%. In the next four years, the Nikkei Average Index still hovered around 10,000 points.</p><p>That is to say, since the late 1990s, the \"lost decade\" of Japanese economy has been reported in newspapers, and the problem has not been solved so far.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ced67142e550e77f5f84c394cba59c8d\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What exactly has Japan lost in 30 years?</b></p><p>In 2010, as the Japanese economy still did not improve, the media began to put forward the \"lost twenty years\" of the Japanese economy.</p><p>In fact, \"twenty years\" is still not the end of Japan's economic downturn. Counting from the highest closing point in the history of the Nikkei 225 Index at 38,957, it has been falling all the way since then, falling to less than 10,000 points many times during this period, and it did not stop falling until 2017.</p><p>At the close of trading on July 7, 2022, the Nikkei 225 Index closed at 26,490.53 points, still more than 10,000 points away from its highest point.</p><p>The \"Plaza Accord\", which caused the yen to appreciate sharply, is considered by many people to be the root cause of the Great Depression caused by Japan's bubble economy.</p><p>However, in the analysis of this Great Depression, the criticism of the Plaza Accord is not consistent. Former Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Finance of Japan, Toyo Tian, even personally refuted this view.</p><p>Because from 1985 to 1990, with overseas investment under the strong yen, Japan's overseas net assets rose from more than 1 trillion US dollars to more than 3 trillion US dollars, that is, the so-called \"there is another Japan besides Japan\"--</p><p>The 300% appreciation of the yen in 10 years is accompanied by a huge increase in production costs and labor costs. In order to maintain their competitiveness, a large number of Japanese companies have to look overseas, which makes Japanese companies' capital flow out rapidly.</p><p>The rapidly appreciating yen and the increasingly anxious Japan-US trade war have also boosted this outflow-the strong yen is convenient for Japanese companies to invest and acquire overseas companies, while building factories abroad can bypass the US sanctions on \"Made in Japan\".</p><p>From 1985 to 1990, Japanese companies carried out a total of 21 huge overseas mergers and acquisitions worth more than 50 billion yen.</p><p>In 1989, Rockefeller Center bought by Mitsubishi for $1.4 billion, Universal Pictures bought by Panasonic for $6 billion, and Columbia Pictures bought by Sony for $3.4 billion-including the copyright of Spider-Man that Marvel Comics has not been able to recover now;</p><p>The Japanese are even ambitious to buy the United States as \"Japan's forty-first county\". Why does the city look so like Tokyo from the 70th floor of the InterContinental Los Angeles Hotel?</p><p>Because the Japanese bought half of the real estate here back then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6420f38680bf983f828177b00418e180\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Japanese scholar Ito Gan wrote in Anger Across the Pacific that some Japanese people believe that Japan will become the next \"superpower\" and the government will lead the people to \"end the American era\".</p><p>It's just that these real estates belong to giant enterprises, consortia, speculators and wealthy foreign businessmen, but they don't belong to the Japanese people alone.</p><p>In 2020, \"Sankei Shimbun\" reported that the revenue of Japanese overseas local legal persons has increased by 220% in the past 20 years. According to OECD statistics, Japan's per capita purchasing power level in 2020 is only US $39,000, an increase of only US $39,000 from 1990. 4%.</p><p><b>1. Thirty years of unmoved income</b></p><p>After 1900, Japan's investment activities came to an abrupt end.</p><p>Banks go bankrupt, factories go bankrupt, mortgage disasters, and banks full of non-performing assets have to merge and reorganize; The sharply rising production costs have caused a large number of enterprises to close down, and the worst thing is ordinary people-they have been laid off in the tide of bankruptcies, their lifelong savings have volatilized in the bubble crisis, and they have to bear heavy mortgages.</p><p>However, after the collapse of the lifelong employment system and the merit sequence, they worked overtime in order to keep their jobs. Although the \"social animal\" culture was not born in Japan's bubble crisis, it has been solidified since then-accepting competition and the supremacy of production efficiency. The squeezing of gears on themselves has become the most helpless choice for Japanese migrant workers.</p><p>However, the torrent of social development pushed the Japanese forward, but it failed to give them the due reward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11648f82b27132391bb1a6cef2c3432a\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In February 2021, the \"Diligence Statistics Survey\" released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan showed that Japan's per capita monthly salary in 2020 was 318,299 yen, or about 19,600 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, the largest decrease in 12 years.</p><p>This figure was about 350,000 yuan in 1990, when the average annual income of Japanese people was 4.25 million yen. Based on the exchange rate at that time, the monthly salary was about 11,600 yuan.</p><p>The average annual income of \"standing still\" for 30 consecutive years has become the most violent \"contraceptive pill\" in Japan.</p><p><b>2. Irreversible aging</b></p><p>In 2020, Japan's total population ranked 11th in the world, falling out of the top ten for the first time since 1950. From 1974 to 2020, Japan's birth rate dropped from 1.86% to 0.67%, and it began to fall into negative population growth for 13 consecutive years around 2008.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's elderly population aged 65 and above reached 36.4 million, accounting for 29.1% of the total population.</p><p>The declining birthrate and aging have caused Japan to fall into a serious shortage of labor supply and slow down in labor productivity growth, thus causing the economic growth to continue to slow down:</p><p>\"From 1961 to 2020, Japan's working-age population growth rate, labor productivity growth rate and economic trend basically changed synchronously. From 1961 to 1975, the average growth rate of Japan's working-age population remained at a high level of 1.6%, and the growth rate of labor productivity reached a peak of 8.4%. The average growth rate of real GDP also remained at a high level of 7.7%; From 1976 to 1988, the working-age population and labor productivity maintained a low growth rate of 0.9% and 3.7% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate also dropped to 4.4%; From 1989 to 2020, the growth rates of working-age population and labor productivity dropped sharply from 0.9% and 4.4% to-0.8% and 1.1% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate dropped from 5.4% to-4.4%. \"</p><p>With the decline of the labor force and the decrease of tax revenue, the expenses such as pensions that need to be spent are rapidly expanding. Since 1990, the number of people living on pensions has been five times that of taxpayers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c92a0dfa8f71abcdb41b554124294a7\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 2004, Japan launched the pension reform, increasing the tax revenue by 0.354% every year. By 2017, the pension paid by taxpayers had accounted for 18.3% of their annual income, which became a heavy burden for the Japanese people.</p><p>The ranking of Japan's Human Development Index (which measures per capita GDP, education, and medical care) dropped from the first place in the world in 1990 to the 19th place in the world in 2020.</p><p>At the same time, Japanese young people have a negative attitude towards life, low material desire and lack of motivation for struggle due to the decline in expected income, resulting in \"hikikomori\". According to the definition of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan, hikikomori are people who stay at home for more than 6 months and almost cut off contact with the outside world. According to the data of the Survey on Living Conditions of the Cabinet Office of Japan, there are 541,000 hikikomori aged 15-39 and 40-64, respectively.</p><p>The consumption and house purchase demand of the elderly are far lower than those of young people, and young people seriously lack consumption desire, which makes it difficult to significantly increase total consumption. Japan has fallen into a \"low desire society\".</p><p><b>3. Lifelong QE, but always weak</b></p><p>In 2021, Japan's total GDP of 4,937.4 billion US dollars will fall from the \"5 prefix\", but it is still an economic power that stands out from Europe and ranks as the third largest economy in the world. It doesn't seem to be bad.</p><p>But in fact, Japan's GDP reached 5.55 trillion US dollars in 1995. At that time, the ratio of Japan's GDP to the GDP of the United States was 71.34%. In 2021, this ratio became 21.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0823be1f503a8cdff0d86e9ba57b90cf\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compared with the glory of the past, today's Japan is indeed somewhat embarrassed.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's macro leverage ratio also leads the world. According to the latest data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), at the end of the second quarter of 2021, the macro leverage ratios of various countries were 286.2% in the United States, 284.3% in the Eurozone, and 416.5% in Japan.</p><p>The huge debt scale comes from decades of Japanese quantitative easing.</p><p>Quantitative easing is a Japanese innovation in the field of finance.</p><p>In 1998, the Bank of Japan began to implement the policy of zero interest rate and quantitative easing for the first time, that is, to regulate economic activities by controlling the currency supply.</p><p>In 2013, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda launched a monetary policy stimulus plan to boost inflation.</p><p>Since 2013, the yen has continued to depreciate against the US dollar, and exports have achieved a substantial increase; At the same time, the Japanese benchmark interest rate has been falling all the way, and the ten-year Treasury Bond interest rate even dropped to a negative number in 2016.</p><p>At the same time, the Bank of Japan began to purchase ETFs (exchange-traded funds) on a large scale, with an average annual ETF purchase scale close to 4 trillion yen. By 2021, the Bank of Japan's stocks will account for more than 80% of stock ETFs, accounting for more than 80% of the total market value of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.</p><p>Although the Nikkei 225 index has strengthened all the way from around 8,000 points in 2012, and even broke through the 30,000-point mark in February 2021, this still seems to be a mirror-like bubble boom because of the huge amount injected by the Bank of Japan. The base currency has neither raised inflation nor driven economic growth.</p><p>In terms of economic structure, except for core basic raw materials, Japan still maintains its barrier advantage, and almost all other industries are hesitating. The markets of automobiles, shipbuilding, machine tools, and electronics industries are all being divided up by the United States, China, South Korea and other countries, and there are few achievements in emerging industries.</p><p>At present, the number of Japanese unicorn companies is only 6, which lags far behind the 554, 180, 64, 43, and 26 in the United States, China, India, Britain, and Germany, and their valuations are all less than US $2 billion.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's debt has expanded rapidly. As of the end of December 2021, Japan's national debt, composed of Treasury Bond, borrowings and short-term government securities, reached 1,218.4 trillion yen, and the per capita debt of Japanese citizens was approximately 9.71 million yen, or approximately RMB 534573 yuan.</p><p>However, at a time when central banks in the United States, Britain, and Europe have begun to tighten their pace, the Bank of Japan has not changed its loose monetary policy.</p><p><b>\"Against the market\" easing, unlimited money printing, yen falling streak</b></p><p>The yen's losing streak began in March.</p><p>After the Federal Reserve's rate hike landed in March and released signals that it would increase rate hike and accelerate shrinking balance sheet in the future, both Britain and Europe began to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy, but the Bank of Japan did the opposite and insisted on maintaining quantitative easing policy.</p><p>On March 28th, the Bank of Japan issued a press release announcing that it would launch a \"continuous designated price market operation\" measure to curb the rise of interest rates from March 29th to 31st, that is, to purchase public bonds from private financial institutions in unlimited amounts at designated interest rates.</p><p>On the same day, the yen exchange rate plunged 1.38%.</p><p>On April 20th, less than a month later, the Bank of Japan announced an unlimited purchase of 10-year Treasury Bond to defend the 0.25% yield ceiling of 10-year Japanese Treasury Bond, which once again pushed the depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Some experts believe that since the depreciation of the yen is beneficial to Japan's export-oriented economy, the Bank of Japan has always regarded the loose monetary environment as an important means to boost market expectations, especially when it has just entered the new fiscal year, it is even more difficult for the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy.</p><p>But can easing save Japan's economy?</p><p>In fact, Japan's trade structure is unstable. Since the Abe government came to power and introduced the unlimited stimulus policy, the total export volume has declined continuously from 2012 to 2015, and only maintained a trade surplus in 2016 and 2017.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2490580bd25519041d5aef1bb5c3c0\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Recently, global crude oil and raw material prices have soared, and the depreciation of the yen has raised the costs of Japanese companies and broadened the channels for imported inflation. At the same time, according to the \"Value-added Trade Statistics\" released by the OECD, the added value created in Japan has dropped from 94% in 1995 to 83% in 2018, a decrease of 11%. Japan's related high value-added products and services have It is increasingly difficult to offset its rising production costs.</p><p>The only beneficiary is Japanese local speculators. With the sharp landing of the Federal Reserve, U.S. bond yields continue to soar, and the spread between U.S. and Japanese Treasury Bond has become wider and wider, so local speculators have begun to short-sell Japanese yen on a large scale., borrowing yen to buy arbitrage of U.S. bonds.</p><p>What about ordinary people?</p><p>Rising prices have led to rising living costs and weakened consumption power, and the \"lost thirty years\" seems to be postponed again-the depreciation of the yen, which was recognized as \"beneficial to the economy\" by the Bank of Japan, has never effectively boosted Japan's economic growth for many years, but has prevented the Japanese economy from escaping from the large-scale financial easing policy for more than ten years.</p><p>Thirty years ago, then central bank governor Mie Yasu warned the government that a country must not survive by blowing economic bubbles, otherwise it will be a great harm to the country.</p><p>So shortly after he took office, Japan implemented a tightening monetary policy, greatly raised the loan interest rate and actively punctured the bubble. This hard landing plunged Japan into decades of depression, but it was often regarded by later generations as the decisive decision of \"a strong man breaking his wrist\".</p><p>It's just that the car in front has been overturned, and the car in front is unknown.</p><p>Thirty years later, Japan seems to be still the same Japan.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vyE5FKltsfEpcN7v5P6r4w\">风暴眼工作室</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab6491f7a764c5c5f68017952b8c2931","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vyE5FKltsfEpcN7v5P6r4w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172335974","content_text":"7月8日,日本前首相安倍晋三遭遇枪击的消息震惊全世界。据央视报道,当地时间8日,日本前首相安倍晋三当天上午在奈良发表演讲时中枪 。据悉,安倍晋三在上救护车时还有意识,目前安倍晋三已经没有生命体征。日元汇率也受到了影响,截至7月8日11:30,美元兑日元跌幅扩大至0.47%,报135.37,日元有所升值。安倍遇刺,日元为何会突然升值?或许与其任期内力主推动的“安倍经济学”有关。安倍晋三2012年底上台后加速实施的一系列刺激经济政策,最值得注目的就是宽松货币政策,日元汇率开始加速贬值。今年以来,日元汇率持续下跌态势更加明显。6月13日,日元兑美元汇率一度跌破135日元兑换1美元关口,创下约24年的新低。而从2021年初至今的一年多时间内,日元相对美元已经大幅贬值超过25%。作为传统避险货币持续大跌,让日债和日元资产开始被大幅抛售。虽然日本央行行长黑田东彦重申了他的观点,即日本央行必须维持其大规模刺激计划,以支撑脆弱的经济复苏。但对于普通日本人,脆弱的经济复苏是否需要用日元的大幅贬值来支撑还是值得商榷,毕竟日本作为一个进口大国,能源对外依存度高达88%,粮食自给率仅有37%。日元贬值带来的大宗商品价格抬升,将直接影响市民的生活。尤其是大幅宽松了这么多年,可从1990年日本经济崩溃以来,日本平均年GDP增长率不足1%。宽高了房产、宽起了物价,独独没有宽起来居民的可支配收入,人们多少缺乏点信心。在已经经历了“失落的十年”、\"失落的二十年\"、“失落的三十年”之后,日本的失落眼看着要奔向亚特兰蒂斯的那个时间维度去了。第四个十年,日本又是否能绝地翻盘呢?安倍和他的“安倍经济学”虽然安倍晋三在2020年8月就已经辞任首相,但日元如今的大幅贬值却和他的“安倍经济学”联系紧密。2012年底,安倍晋三再次担任日本首相,随即抛出“拼经济”路线,被媒体热炒为“安倍经济学”。所谓“安倍经济学”,是通过实验性质的货币政策(简称QQE)、积极财政政策和经济结构改革来解决日本经济问题的政策组合。包括“三大策略”:其一,提出日本史上最大规模的量化宽松(QE)货币政策,央行每月购买国债7.5万亿日元;其二,突破前任政府预算总额70万亿日元的扩张性财政政策;其三,囊括《跨太平洋战略经济伙伴协定》(TPP)、放松管制以唤起民间投资和促进创新等在内的一揽子增长战略。安倍经济学是为了解决1990年代以后日本经济不断低迷而做出的最新努力。那么实施效果如何呢?全球宏观投机的一篇分析文章指出,安倍经济学是一个伟大的经济实验,日本金融家和政治家打破成见,用结构调整、财政和货币政策三管齐下的方法提升日本潜在经济增长率,克服通货紧缩。实验的前三年,获得了相当成功。文章同时也指出,“安倍经济学”2016到2020年则表现暗淡。新冠疫情冲击下部分安倍经济学的目标得以实现,尤其是通胀预期、日元汇率、真实利率和股票价格等,但是同期的潜在产出成长并不佳,证明了结构改革推进不力。中国社会科学院日本研究所副所长张季风认为,安倍在经济治理上的成绩大家有目共睹,但是也有较为严重的问题。其中最严重的问题就是财政状况困难,这个局面始终没有得到改变。中国现代国际关系研究院东北亚研究所副研究员刘云认为,若仅从日本GDP来看,会有所误解,认为安倍经济学不太成功。但如果从整体上看,日本经济是一个向上的姿态,例如日本的工资有增加、大企业利润增速不错,所以日本经济形势是有所好转的。“失落”始于1990“安倍经济学”的初衷是为了挽救日本持续低迷的经济。而“失落的十年”最早被提出,则是1990年日本股市泡沫破灭。在这场让日本一蹶不振的泡沫大破灭之前的十数年,日本曾是“缔造奇迹的国家”。从早期的棉纺织等劳动密集型企业开始积累资本,再到后来以制造业为核心产业,积极扩大投资、引进国外先进技术,从战后的废墟里迅速重建起本国的工业体系。到1964年,东京奥运会更是成为衔接日本经济发展转型的重要标志,由于大规模基建对钢铁的需求以及奥运会开幕对彩电的需求,日本的钢铁、机电行业蓬勃发展,日本经历了一个完整的“用衬衫换飞机”到“日本制造”的发展阶段。1965年,日本输出美国的钢铁占到了美国进口总量一半,1968年,日本成为了仅次美国的世界第二大经济体。与此同时,日本牢牢抓住了新一代的产业革命,汽车、钢铁、电信、半导体、制药全面制霸美国市场,日立、NEC、富士通、三菱和东芝群雄并起。而美国在当年对日的连年贸易赤字中,产业巨头们一片连年亏损,英特尔甚至一度濒临倒闭。在被日货打得找不着北的窘境之下,美国不顾脸面地发起了一场国人如今看起来很眼熟的贸易战——从1981年开始,行销全球的日系汽车开始被美国课以重税,并且在出口额度上被加以限制。同时,美国以日方“存在倾销行为”为由对日本的电脑、电视等高科技产品征收100%的关税,日本的半导体被设置出口价格下限、日本的芯片被征收100%惩罚性关税。美国议员直播砸碎日本产品此外,日系企业的高管被以“产业间谍罪”为名拘捕,日本被美国指责为“汇率操纵国”、从美国窃取知识产权,并被要求加大对美国农产品的进口力度、取消对外企不利的贸易条款、让日本在纺织品、钢铁、电视和机床等行业都实行自愿出口限制,同时进行工厂转移和产业升级……在不断指责日本通过国家扶持产业政策的同时,美国却在1988年出台新的贸易法,启用“超级301”条款——公然立法干预日本的产业与贸易政策,迫使日本进行制度性改革。1989年日美开始“日美结构协议”谈判,就经济政策、制度及企业行为等进行磋商,促使日本在流通体制、商业惯例等方面进行开放性改革:例如把住房作为战略性产业,进一步开放流通体制;进一步开放国内市场,按照自由贸易的原则重组进出口体制。截至1989年,美国贸易代表总计向日本发起了24例301条款案件调查,几乎全部由日本政府做出了让步。同时,由于1985年美国、日本、联邦德国、法国和英国达成的“广场协议”,日元兑美元汇率被迫大幅升值。1987年10月的“黑色星期一”之后,日元升值到120日元/美元,1988年度升幅高达90%。广场协议签订现场大幅升值的日元对以出口型经济为主的日本造成了毁灭性的打击,生产成本急剧上涨、优质企业开始逃向海外,为了应对汇率危机,日本政府开始大幅降息,寄希望于“发钱”让企业可以低成本去投资办厂。可实际上,由于实业回报周期过长,低利率贷出大量的日元并没有被投入到到实体经济,货币市场的充裕流动性,随着日元在广场协议后大幅升值的“强势”开始大量流入房市、股市以及奢侈品市场。1986 年开始,日本飞速膨胀的经济繁荣被称为“平成景气”,1985年末日经225股价指数收于13083点, 1989年末收于38916点,四年间日经225指数累计上涨197.45%,并且股票总市值继续膨胀至896万亿日元,占日本当年国民生产总值的60%。80年代的日本街头东京的地价则是坐地飞升,日本天皇的东京皇居土地价格就超过了整个法国的土地估价;银座地区一张1万日元的纸币扔在地上,也买不到它所覆盖的那一小片土地。同时,日本人成了全球最大的奢侈品消费国,他们横扫全球的手表店、珠宝店以及红酒酒庄,外资银行与证券公司在日本市场数钱数到手软。与经济现实完全背离的大批股指沽空期权之后,是泡沫膨胀到极致时爆发。1990年10月,日本长达5年的牛市结束,股市暴跌63.24%,创造了日本股市历史上最大的下跌幅度。次年,楼市暴跌65%,破产企业层出不穷,失业人群人数激增,整个国家财富缩水了近50%。同时,短期的大幅衰退让无数来不及抽身的普通人被各项资本投资标的物“套牢”,一场经济大洗牌让全社会的财富被转移至少数赢家手中。此后,日本经济开始长期处于低迷状态。日经平均指数由1989年12月29日历史高位38957,到2008年10月29日最低6994.9,累积跌幅逾82%,其后4年日经平均指数仍然始终徘徊在10,000点左右。也就是从90年代末开始,日本经济“失去的十年””开始不断见诸报端,并至今难题未解。三十年里,日本具体失去了什么?2010年,由于日本经济仍无起色,媒体开始提出日本经济“失去的二十年”。实际上,“二十年”依旧不是日本经济颓靡的终点。自38957的日经225指数历史最高收盘点位开始算起,此后一路下行,期间多次跌至1万点一下,直至2017年才止跌。2022年7月7日收盘,日经225指数收盘报26490.53点,距其最高点仍有一万多点的差距。那个让日元急剧升值的“广场协议”,被许多人认为是日本泡沫经济引发大萧条的根源。但对于这次大萧条的分析中,对于广场协议的批判并不是一致的。原日本大藏省副相行天丰雄甚至亲自出面驳斥过这一观点。因为在1985年~1990年,借强势日元下的海外投资,日本海外净资产从1万多亿美元上升到3万多亿美元,也就是所谓的“日本之外,还有一个日本”——日元10年升值300%的同时,是生产成本与人力成本的巨幅抬升。为了保持自己的竞争力,大量日企不得不将目光投向海外,这使得日企资本急速外流。升值迅速的日元与日渐焦灼的日美贸易战也助推了这一外流——强势的日元方便日企投资收购海外企业,同时在外建厂可以绕开美国对“日本制造”的制裁。从1985年到1990年,日本企业总共进行了21起500亿日元以上的巨型海外并购案。1989年,三菱公司14亿美元买下的洛克菲勒中心、松下60亿美元买下的美国环球影业、索尼公司以34亿美元买下哥伦比亚影片公司——其中包括漫威如今都没能收回的蜘蛛侠版权;日本人甚至雄心壮志地要将美国买成“日本的第四十一个县”,为什么从洛杉矶洲际酒店70楼看去的城市那么像东京?因为当年日本人买下了这里一半的地产。日本学者伊藤感在《横跨太平洋的愤怒》中写到,一些日本人相信日本会成为下一个\"超级大国\",政府会带领民众\"终结美国的时代\"。只是这些地产,属于巨企、属于财团、属于投机者、属于外籍富商,但独独不属于日本的人民。2020年《产经新闻》报道,日本海外当地法人的营收在近20年内增长了220%,而按照OECD的统计数据,日本2020年的人均购买力水平仅为3.9万美元,比1990年仅增长了4%。1、三十年不动的收入1900年以后,日本的投资活动戛然而止。银行破产、工厂倒闭、房贷成灾,充斥着不良资产的银行不得不合并重组;剧烈抬升的生产成本让企业大批倒闭,最惨的还是普通人——在倒闭潮中被裁员、一辈子的积蓄在泡沫危机中挥发、还要背上沉重的房贷。而在终身雇佣制和年功序列崩解后,为了保住工作而拼命加班,“社畜”文化虽然不诞生于日本的泡沫危机,但却在这之后得到了固化——接受竞争和生产效率至上的齿轮对自己的压榨,成了日本打工人最无奈的选择。但社会发展的洪流推进着日本人前进,却没能给他们应有的回报。2021年2月,日本厚生劳动省发布的“勤劳统计调查”显示,日本2020年的人均月薪为31万8299日元,约合1.96万元人民币,同比减少1.2%,创下12年以来最大降幅。而这一数字在1990年时是35万元左右,当时的日本人平均年收入是425万日元,以当时的汇率计算,月薪约合1.16万人民币。连续30年“原地踏步”的平均年收入,成了日本最猛烈的“避孕药”。2、难以逆转的老龄化2020年,日本总人口居世界11位,是1950年以来首次跌出前十。从1974到2020年,日本出生率由1.86%降至0.67%,在2008年左右开始陷入连续13年的人口负增长。同时,日本65岁及以上老年人口达3640万,在总人口中所占比例达29.1%。少子老龄化,导致日本陷入严重的劳动力供给不足、劳动生产率增速趋缓,进而使经济增速持续放缓:“1961-2020年日本劳动年龄人口增速、劳动生产率增速与经济走势基本同步变化。伴随1961-1975年日本劳动年龄人口平均增速维持在1.6%的高位、劳动生产率增速达到8.4%峰值,实际GDP平均增速也维持在7.7%的高位;1976-1988年劳动年龄人口、劳动生产率分别维持0.9%、3.7%的低速增长,实际GDP增速也降至4.4%;1989-2020年劳动年龄人口、劳动生产率增速分别从0.9%、4.4%大幅降至-0.8%、1.1%,实际GDP增速从5.4%降至-4.4%。”在劳动人口下降,税收不断减少的情况下,需要支出的养老金等费用却在急速扩大,自1990年起,依附养老金生活的人数已经是纳税人的5倍。2004年日本启动了养老金改革,每年以0.354%的涨幅提高税收,到2017年纳税人缴纳的养老金已占到个人年收入的18.3%,成了日本民众沉重的负担。日本人类发展指数的排名(测量人均GDP,教育,以及医疗),则从1990年的世界第一掉落至2020年的世界第十九。同时,日本年轻人因预期收入下降而形成的生活态度消极、物质欲望低下、缺乏奋斗动力的风气,由此产生“蛰居族”。根据日本厚生劳动省定义,蛰居族为持续6个月以上待在家里不出门,几乎和外界断绝联系的人群,根据日本内阁府《生活状况相关调查》数据,15-39岁、40-64岁人口蛰居族分别达54.1、61.3万人。老年人的消费和购房需求远低于年轻人,年轻人又严重缺乏消费欲望,使得总消费难以大幅提升,日本陷入“低欲望社会”。3、终身QE,却始终乏力2021年,日本以49374亿美元的GDP总量跌下“5字头”,但依旧是傲视欧洲,名列世界第三大经济体的经济大国,看起来似乎并不差。但实际上,日本1995年GDP就已经达到了5.55万亿美元,当时日本GDP与美国GDP的比率是71.34%,2021年,这个比率变成了21.46%。与过往的辉煌相比,如今的日本确实有些困窘。同时,日本的宏观杠杆率也在全球领先。国际清算银行(BIS)最新数据显示,2021 年二季度末,各国宏观杠杆率中美国为286.2%、欧元区为284.3%,而日本为416.5%。庞大的债务规模来源于日本数十年的量化宽松。量化宽松,是日本在融领域的一个创新。1998年,日本央行本央行第一次开始实行零利率和量化宽松政策,即通过对通货供应量的控制来调节经济活动。2013年,日本央行行长黑田东彦推出提振通胀的货币政策刺激计划。从2013年开始,日元兑美元持续贬值,出口实现了较大幅度增长;同时日本基准利率一路下行,十年期国债利率在2016年甚至下降至负数。同时日本央行开始大规模购入ETF(交易所交易基金),年均ETF购买规模接近4万亿日元,到2021年,日本央行持有股票占股票ETF的80%以上,占东京证券交易所总市值的5%以上。虽然日经225指数从2012年的八千点附近,一路走强,在2021年2月甚至突破了三万点大关,但这似乎仍然是一场镜花水月的泡沫化繁荣,因为日本央行注入的巨量基础货币既没有拉高通胀率,也没有拉动经济增长。经济结构上,日本除核心基础原材料依然保持壁垒优势,其他产业几乎都在裹足不前。汽车、造船、机床、电子产业的市场都在被美、中、韩等国瓜分,新兴产业上更是少有建树。目前日本独角兽企业数量仅6家,大幅落后于美、中、印、英、德、的554、180、64、43、26家,且估值均小于20亿美元。同时,日本的债务急剧扩张,截至2021年12月底,由国债、借款及政府短期证券构成的日本国家债务达到1218.4万亿日元,日本国民人均负债约为971万日元,约合人民币53万4573元。但在美、英、欧等央行均已开始紧缩步伐的当下,日本央行却仍旧未改变宽松的货币政策。“逆市”宽松、无限量印钞、日元连跌日元的连跌始于3月份。在3月美联储加息落地,并释放后续将加大加息幅度和加快缩表的信号后,英、欧均开始加速收紧货币政策,但日本央行却反其道而行之,坚持维持量化宽松政策。3 月 28 日,日本央行发布新闻稿宣布,将在3月 29-31 日间,发动抑制利率上升的“连续性指定价格市场操作”措施,即以指定的利率,无限量从民间金融机构手中收购公债。当天,日元汇率重挫1.38%。4月20日,不到一个月的时间内日本央行又宣布无限量购买10年期国债,以捍卫10年期日本国债0.25%的收益率上限,再度推动了日元的贬值。有专家认为,由于日元贬值有利于日本以出口为导向的经济,日本央行一直将宽松的货币环境作为提振市场预期的重要手段,尤其是在刚刚进入新财年的当下,日本央行更难有可能收紧货币政策。但宽松能挽救日本经济吗?实际上,日本贸易结构并不稳定,自安倍政府上台推出无限刺激政策后,出口总额在2012~2015年连续下降,仅2016、2017年两年保持了贸易顺差状态。近期全球原油和原材料价格飙升,日元贬值更是抬高了日本企业的成本,拓宽了输入型通胀的渠道。同时,根据OECD发布的“附加值贸易统计”数据显示,日本国内创造的附加值已经从1995年的94%降至2018年的83%,降低了11%,日本相关高附加值产品和服务已经越来越难抵消其不断提升的生产成本。唯一得益的,是日本本土的投机者们,随着美联储大幅落地,美债收益率持续飙涨,美日国债利差已经越来越大,于是本土的投机者们开始大规模沽空日元,借日元买美债的套利。对于老百姓来说呢?物价提升导致生活成本上升、消费力削弱,“失落的三十年”似乎又要延期——被日本央行认定“有利于经济”的日元贬值,多年来从未有效提振过日本的经济增长,反而让日本经济十数年来无法从大规模金融缓和政策中脱出。三十年前,时任央行行长三重野康告诫政府:一个国家绝对不能靠吹经济泡沫生存,否则将是国家的大害。于是在他上台不久后日本就实行了紧缩性的货币政策,大幅度提高了贷款利率,主动刺破泡沫。这场硬着陆让日本陷入了数十年的萧条,却也常被后人视为“壮士断腕”的果决。只是前车已覆,后未知更。三十年过去,日本似乎还是那个日本。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9025730079,"gmtCreate":1653739748891,"gmtModify":1676535335254,"author":{"id":"4087300025751020","authorId":"4087300025751020","name":"老八公","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27256ede8324832365cde987fa4cf48","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087300025751020","idStr":"4087300025751020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9025730079","repostId":"1157614001","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157614001","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1653706811,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157614001?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-28 11:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Goldman Sachs: Inflation is peaking, and the chance of U.S. stocks rising in the next year is as high as 70%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157614001","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"通胀见顶可能会有所帮助,但股市确实需要其他支撑。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Goldman Sachs said on Friday that PCE data showed U.S. inflation has at least begun to pull back from its 40-year high, which could be positive for stocks.</p><p>Of the 13 inflation episodes since 1951, the stock market has recorded gains 12 months after (inflation peaked) 9 times, with a nearly 70% chance of rising. The biggest increase was a 33.2% increase from the March 1980 level, when inflation soared to a peak of 14.59%. The worst was the 17.3% decline since January 2001, when the market was sluggish after the dot-com bubble burst. Indeed, peaking inflation may help, but stocks do need other support, especially if investors are worried about a further economic downturn.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/835d1908fe0a36d896c2a51636c9bc83\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs: Inflation is peaking, and the chance of U.S. stocks rising in the next year is as high as 70%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs: Inflation is peaking, and the chance of U.S. stocks rising in the next year is as high as 70%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-28 11:00</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Goldman Sachs said on Friday that PCE data showed U.S. inflation has at least begun to pull back from its 40-year high, which could be positive for stocks.</p><p>Of the 13 inflation episodes since 1951, the stock market has recorded gains 12 months after (inflation peaked) 9 times, with a nearly 70% chance of rising. The biggest increase was a 33.2% increase from the March 1980 level, when inflation soared to a peak of 14.59%. The worst was the 17.3% decline since January 2001, when the market was sluggish after the dot-com bubble burst. Indeed, peaking inflation may help, but stocks do need other support, especially if investors are worried about a further economic downturn.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/835d1908fe0a36d896c2a51636c9bc83\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157614001","content_text":"高盛周五表示,PCE数据显示,美国通胀已至少开始从40年高点回落,这可能对股市有利。在1951年以来的13次通胀中,股市在(通胀见顶)12个月后有9次录得上涨,上涨几率接近70%。最大涨幅是自1980年3月水平上涨33.2%,当时通胀一度飙升至14.59%的峰值。而最糟糕的是自2001年1月下跌17.3%,当时市场在互联网泡沫破灭后萎靡不振。事实上,通胀见顶可能会有所帮助,但股市确实需要其他支撑,尤其是如果投资者担心经济进一步下滑的话。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":748,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9025692797,"gmtCreate":1653667338919,"gmtModify":1676535324324,"author":{"id":"4087300025751020","authorId":"4087300025751020","name":"老八公","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27256ede8324832365cde987fa4cf48","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087300025751020","idStr":"4087300025751020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9025692797","repostId":"1172880145","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172880145","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653649544,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172880145?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-27 19:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Occidental Petroleum and Chevron hit new highs, proving Buffett's buying logic?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172880145","media":"华尔街大事件","summary":"在美股众多板块当中,石油板块确实不负所望。数据显示,截至目前雪佛龙单周涨幅达5.23%,西方石油单周涨幅达8.54%。两家石油股巨头的股价表现均创阶段性新高。石油股备受关注背后,巴菲特的持仓动作也是一","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Among the many sectors in the U.S. stock market, the oil sector has indeed lived up to expectations. Data shows that as of now<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>The weekly increase reached 5.23%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>The weekly increase reached 8.54%. The stock price performance of the two oil stock giants hit a stage high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d05e58028c4e25af3ae644e33389a6a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b94782207ce4f6fa29ebc240286e2970\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Behind the attention that oil stocks have attracted, Buffett's position action is also a major attraction.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2022,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>A rare high turnover rate. According to statistics, Berkshire's overall turnover rate rose to 12.49% in the first quarter of this year, the highest since 2015 (the turnover rate in the third quarter of 2015 was 21.21%).</p><p><b>In addition to the financial, consumption and other fields that Buffett has always preferred before, he has recently continued to increase his allocation to energy stocks such as oil.</b></p><p>According to the data of the 13F report, Berkshire increased its position in Chevron by 120 million to 159 million shares in the first quarter, with a market value of US $25.919 billion, accounting for 7% of Berkshire's overall market value in the first quarter, and rose to the fourth largest holdings (the top ten new holdings in the fourth quarter of last year). \"Red Weekly\" noticed that Berkshire had opened a position in Chevron in the third quarter of 2020 and has been holding positions continuously so far.</p><p>At the same time, there is another oil stock-Occidental Petroleum, and Buffett also increased his holdings significantly. According to market news, Berkshire increased its holdings of 5.89 million shares of Occidental Petroleum in the first quarter. After the increase, the market value of its holdings was approximately US $13.2 billion, ranking the sixth largest holding. It is worth mentioning that Berkshire's current holdings in the oil industry have exceeded US $40 billion, accounting for 11% of the total market value of its holdings.</p><p>Buffett favors and increases the layout of oil stocks. At the same time, the recent market trend is prominent, which is related to multiple factors.</p><p>Regarding increasing positions in Occidental Petroleum, Buffett thinks its annual report is very good. It said that the short-term fluctuations in the market caused by the \"gambling mentality\" since late February have allowed them to find good buying opportunities.</p><p><b>With the soaring prices of oil and natural gas, energy stocks including Chevron and Occidental Petroleum have all achieved substantial growth in performance.</b>According to Chevron's financial report, its net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders in the first quarter was US $6.259 billion, a year-on-year increase of 350%; Revenue in the first quarter was US $54.373 billion, a year-on-year increase of 69.76%.</p><p>The first quarterly report shows that Occidental Petroleum ushered in the best financial report record in history, with revenue increasing by 57% year-on-year to US $8.34 billion, and net profit attributable to the parent company reaching a record of US $4.67 billion, turning losses into profits year-on-year;</p><p>Quarterly free cash flow of $3.3 billion also set a record high, and adjusted earnings per share of $2.12 exceeded market expectations.</p><p><b>Buffett also said earlier that oil is currently in a state of imbalance between supply and demand.</b>According to Zhitong Financial News, energy consulting firm Turner, Mason & Co. estimates that refining capacity in other parts of the world has decreased by 2.13 million barrels per day. Moreover, with no plans to put new U.S. refineries on production, refiners are making record profits at a time when supply constraints are becoming increasingly severe.</p><p>In fact, since 2021, the global crude oil supply and demand balance has begun to tighten, and the gap is expected to be 1.72 million barrels per day by 2022. The core reason is the continuous production reduction plan of OPEC member countries starting in early 2021, making OPEC The proportion of meeting the global additional gap gradually drops to 90%. Major countries are also difficult to be self-sufficient in their own crude oil demand and production capacity.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2c7cdffff8d042b2c8b36de3346f96d\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"203\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Data source: OPEC,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300059\">Oriental Fortune</a>Securities Research Institute</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5365c3463564a83a3359f57d9a9a3e0b\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: OPEC, Orient Fortune Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>With the gradual imbalance between supply and demand, with the long-term existence of inflation-stagflation, oil prices will trend at a high level for a long time, which will greatly improve the profits of oil companies.</b></p><p>On May 26 of the same period, British Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak announced a 25% profit tax on the oil and gas industry. \"The oil and gas industry has made huge profits not because of recent changes to risk-taking, innovation or efficiency, but because of the surge in global commodity prices,\" Sunak said.</p><p>According to the Buffett Reading Club, Occidental Petroleum management has said that every $1 increase in oil prices will generate the company $225 million in annual revenue. In 2021, the annual average oil price calculated by the company at that time was US $66.14. At the price level at that time, the oil and gas business brought a total operating profit of US $4.1 billion to the company.</p><p>With the current oil price soaring to historical highs, assuming that the annual average oil price remains at US $106/barrel, the company will have the potential to create an additional profit of US $9 billion.</p><p><b>In terms of increasing reserves, historical data is equally grim. Although supply-side capital expenditures have doubled and reserve replacement rates have not improved, demand continues to lead to a widening gap between supply and demand in the future.</b></p><p>Natural resource research firm Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates released the study titled \"The Incredibly Shrinking Oil Majors\" on October 1, 2021. The four oil majors they studied set a goal in 2000 to increase reserves by 5% per year. However, all four businesses failed, and their reserves were actually declining.</p><p>According to Goehring Research, \"From 2000 to 2010, the Big Four spent US $615 billion on upstream capital expenditures. During the same period, they produced 50.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent and discovered new reserves of 41.1 billion barrels of oil equivalent, resulting in a reserve replacement rate of 86% and an average discovery and development cost of US $14.30 per barrel of oil equivalent.</p><p>Between 2010 and 2020, upstream capital expenditures surged to $1.15. At the same time, the companies produced 50.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent and discovered new reserves of 43.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent-a good fit with the previous decade.</p><p>Despite nearly doubling upstream capital expenditures, the companies are still unable to replace production with new reserves. Indeed, the reserve replacement rate remained at 85% despite increased spending.</p><p>The effectiveness has not improved significantly, but the cost of finding and developing new reserves has almost doubled, from $14.30 to $26.40 per barrel of oil equivalent. \"</p><p>Despite the slowdown in global economic growth and the transformation of old and new energy sources, global crude oil demand will still maintain an annual increase of 1-1.5 million barrels per day from 2023 to 2025, and it is difficult for crude oil supply capacity to meet the demand increase. In the medium and long term, the global crude oil supply and demand gap will exist for a long time.</p><p>Taking history as a guide, energy companies tend to perform more prominently during inflation.</p><p>The performance of U.S. stocks during the inflation-stagflation period in the 1970s, and the stock price returns of energy companies exceeded 10 times. By the end of 1981, among the top 20 companies in the U.S. stock market, the energy sector even accounted for half.</p><p><b>Looking back at the Fed's six inflation-rate hike cycles, we can find that energy companies have the best chances of outperforming the market and earning excess returns.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1643368503284","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Occidental Petroleum and Chevron hit new highs, proving Buffett's buying logic?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOccidental Petroleum and Chevron hit new highs, proving Buffett's buying logic?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街大事件</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-27 19:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Among the many sectors in the U.S. stock market, the oil sector has indeed lived up to expectations. Data shows that as of now<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>The weekly increase reached 5.23%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>The weekly increase reached 8.54%. The stock price performance of the two oil stock giants hit a stage high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d05e58028c4e25af3ae644e33389a6a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b94782207ce4f6fa29ebc240286e2970\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Behind the attention that oil stocks have attracted, Buffett's position action is also a major attraction.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2022,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>A rare high turnover rate. According to statistics, Berkshire's overall turnover rate rose to 12.49% in the first quarter of this year, the highest since 2015 (the turnover rate in the third quarter of 2015 was 21.21%).</p><p><b>In addition to the financial, consumption and other fields that Buffett has always preferred before, he has recently continued to increase his allocation to energy stocks such as oil.</b></p><p>According to the data of the 13F report, Berkshire increased its position in Chevron by 120 million to 159 million shares in the first quarter, with a market value of US $25.919 billion, accounting for 7% of Berkshire's overall market value in the first quarter, and rose to the fourth largest holdings (the top ten new holdings in the fourth quarter of last year). \"Red Weekly\" noticed that Berkshire had opened a position in Chevron in the third quarter of 2020 and has been holding positions continuously so far.</p><p>At the same time, there is another oil stock-Occidental Petroleum, and Buffett also increased his holdings significantly. According to market news, Berkshire increased its holdings of 5.89 million shares of Occidental Petroleum in the first quarter. After the increase, the market value of its holdings was approximately US $13.2 billion, ranking the sixth largest holding. It is worth mentioning that Berkshire's current holdings in the oil industry have exceeded US $40 billion, accounting for 11% of the total market value of its holdings.</p><p>Buffett favors and increases the layout of oil stocks. At the same time, the recent market trend is prominent, which is related to multiple factors.</p><p>Regarding increasing positions in Occidental Petroleum, Buffett thinks its annual report is very good. It said that the short-term fluctuations in the market caused by the \"gambling mentality\" since late February have allowed them to find good buying opportunities.</p><p><b>With the soaring prices of oil and natural gas, energy stocks including Chevron and Occidental Petroleum have all achieved substantial growth in performance.</b>According to Chevron's financial report, its net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders in the first quarter was US $6.259 billion, a year-on-year increase of 350%; Revenue in the first quarter was US $54.373 billion, a year-on-year increase of 69.76%.</p><p>The first quarterly report shows that Occidental Petroleum ushered in the best financial report record in history, with revenue increasing by 57% year-on-year to US $8.34 billion, and net profit attributable to the parent company reaching a record of US $4.67 billion, turning losses into profits year-on-year;</p><p>Quarterly free cash flow of $3.3 billion also set a record high, and adjusted earnings per share of $2.12 exceeded market expectations.</p><p><b>Buffett also said earlier that oil is currently in a state of imbalance between supply and demand.</b>According to Zhitong Financial News, energy consulting firm Turner, Mason & Co. estimates that refining capacity in other parts of the world has decreased by 2.13 million barrels per day. Moreover, with no plans to put new U.S. refineries on production, refiners are making record profits at a time when supply constraints are becoming increasingly severe.</p><p>In fact, since 2021, the global crude oil supply and demand balance has begun to tighten, and the gap is expected to be 1.72 million barrels per day by 2022. The core reason is the continuous production reduction plan of OPEC member countries starting in early 2021, making OPEC The proportion of meeting the global additional gap gradually drops to 90%. Major countries are also difficult to be self-sufficient in their own crude oil demand and production capacity.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2c7cdffff8d042b2c8b36de3346f96d\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"203\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Data source: OPEC,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300059\">Oriental Fortune</a>Securities Research Institute</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5365c3463564a83a3359f57d9a9a3e0b\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: OPEC, Orient Fortune Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>With the gradual imbalance between supply and demand, with the long-term existence of inflation-stagflation, oil prices will trend at a high level for a long time, which will greatly improve the profits of oil companies.</b></p><p>On May 26 of the same period, British Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak announced a 25% profit tax on the oil and gas industry. \"The oil and gas industry has made huge profits not because of recent changes to risk-taking, innovation or efficiency, but because of the surge in global commodity prices,\" Sunak said.</p><p>According to the Buffett Reading Club, Occidental Petroleum management has said that every $1 increase in oil prices will generate the company $225 million in annual revenue. In 2021, the annual average oil price calculated by the company at that time was US $66.14. At the price level at that time, the oil and gas business brought a total operating profit of US $4.1 billion to the company.</p><p>With the current oil price soaring to historical highs, assuming that the annual average oil price remains at US $106/barrel, the company will have the potential to create an additional profit of US $9 billion.</p><p><b>In terms of increasing reserves, historical data is equally grim. Although supply-side capital expenditures have doubled and reserve replacement rates have not improved, demand continues to lead to a widening gap between supply and demand in the future.</b></p><p>Natural resource research firm Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates released the study titled \"The Incredibly Shrinking Oil Majors\" on October 1, 2021. The four oil majors they studied set a goal in 2000 to increase reserves by 5% per year. However, all four businesses failed, and their reserves were actually declining.</p><p>According to Goehring Research, \"From 2000 to 2010, the Big Four spent US $615 billion on upstream capital expenditures. During the same period, they produced 50.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent and discovered new reserves of 41.1 billion barrels of oil equivalent, resulting in a reserve replacement rate of 86% and an average discovery and development cost of US $14.30 per barrel of oil equivalent.</p><p>Between 2010 and 2020, upstream capital expenditures surged to $1.15. At the same time, the companies produced 50.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent and discovered new reserves of 43.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent-a good fit with the previous decade.</p><p>Despite nearly doubling upstream capital expenditures, the companies are still unable to replace production with new reserves. Indeed, the reserve replacement rate remained at 85% despite increased spending.</p><p>The effectiveness has not improved significantly, but the cost of finding and developing new reserves has almost doubled, from $14.30 to $26.40 per barrel of oil equivalent. \"</p><p>Despite the slowdown in global economic growth and the transformation of old and new energy sources, global crude oil demand will still maintain an annual increase of 1-1.5 million barrels per day from 2023 to 2025, and it is difficult for crude oil supply capacity to meet the demand increase. In the medium and long term, the global crude oil supply and demand gap will exist for a long time.</p><p>Taking history as a guide, energy companies tend to perform more prominently during inflation.</p><p>The performance of U.S. stocks during the inflation-stagflation period in the 1970s, and the stock price returns of energy companies exceeded 10 times. By the end of 1981, among the top 20 companies in the U.S. stock market, the energy sector even accounted for half.</p><p><b>Looking back at the Fed's six inflation-rate hike cycles, we can find that energy companies have the best chances of outperforming the market and earning excess returns.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/mXrXxY-4sK4KhBQ9yNfn8w\">华尔街大事件</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3ecc14db02762fcb82cdbb76e654301","relate_stocks":{"BK4581":"高盛持仓","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","CVX":"雪佛龙","OXY":"西方石油","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","BK4176":"多领域控股","BK4566":"资本集团","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK4201":"综合性石油与天然气企业","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/mXrXxY-4sK4KhBQ9yNfn8w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172880145","content_text":"在美股众多板块当中,石油板块确实不负所望。数据显示,截至目前雪佛龙单周涨幅达5.23%,西方石油单周涨幅达8.54%。两家石油股巨头的股价表现均创阶段性新高。石油股备受关注背后,巴菲特的持仓动作也是一大看点。2022年一季度,伯克希尔罕见的高换手率。据统计,今年一季度伯克希尔整体换手率上升至12.49%,创2015年以来(2015年三季度换手率为21.21%)的最高值。除了巴菲特此前一直偏爱的金融、消费等领域,其近来持续增加对石油等能源股的配置。据13F报告数据显示,伯克希尔一季度增仓雪佛龙1.2亿股至1.59亿股,持仓市值为259.19亿美元,占伯克希尔一季度整体持仓市值为7%,并上升至第四大重仓股(去年四季度新进前十大重仓股)。《红周刊》注意到,伯克希尔曾于2020年三季度建仓雪佛龙,至今连续持仓。同时还有另外一只石油股——西方石油,巴菲特也大笔增持。据市场消息,伯克希尔一季度增持西方石油589万股,增持后持仓市值约132亿美元,位列第六重仓股。值得一提的是,伯克希尔目前对石油行业的持仓已超过400亿美元,占总持仓市值比重达11%。巴菲特青睐并加大石油股的布局,同时市场近期走势的凸显,与多重因素有关。对于加仓西方石油,巴菲特认为其年报很好。其表示,2月下旬以来市场因“赌博心态”引发的短期波动让他们找到了良好的买入机会。随着石油、天然气价格飙升,包括雪佛龙、西方石油等能源股均实现了业绩大幅增长。据雪佛龙财报显示,其一季度实现归属于普通股东净利润为62.59亿美元,同比大增350%;一季度营收为543.73亿美元,同比增长69.76%。一季报显示,西方石油迎来了有史以来最好的财报记录,营收同比增长57%,达83.4亿美元,归母净利润创纪录达46.7亿美元,同比扭亏为盈;季度自由现金流为33亿美元,也创下了历史新高,调整后每股盈利为2.12美元,超过市场预期。巴菲特此前也表示,石油目前处于一个供需失衡的状态。据智通财经消息,能源咨询公司Turner, Mason & Co.预计,世界其他地方的炼油日产能已经减少213万桶。而且,由于没有计划让新的美国炼油厂投产,目前炼油企业正获得创纪录的利润,而供应紧张形势却变得越来越严峻。事实上自从2021年开始,全球原油供需平衡表就在开始偏紧,至2022年全年预计缺口在172万桶每日,核心原因是OPEC成员国从2021年初开始的的持续减产计划,使得OPEC满足全球额外缺口比例逐渐低至90%。主要国家自身原油需求与生产能力也出现难以自给自足的现象。数据来源:OPEC、东方财富证券研究所数据来源:OPEC、东方财富证券研究所在供需逐渐失衡的状态下,伴随通胀—滞胀的长期存在,油价将长期高位走势,这将大幅改善石油公司的利润。同期5月26日,英国财政大臣苏纳克宣布对石油和天然气行业征收25%的利润税。苏纳克表示:“石油和天然气行业之所以能获得巨额利润,不是因为最近对风险承担、创新或效率的改变,而是由于全球大宗商品价格飙升。”据巴菲特读书会消息,西方石油管理层曾表示,油价每上涨1美元,将为公司每年产生2.25亿美元的收益。在2021年,当时公司所计算的全年平均油价为66.14美元,在当时的价格水平下,油气业务共为公司带来了41亿美元的营运利润。而随着目前油价飙升至历史高位,假设全年平均油价维持在106美元/桶,那么公司将有潜力创造90亿美元的额外利润。而在增加储备方面,历史数据同样严峻。尽管供给侧资本开支翻倍,而储备替代率并未改善,需求持续导致未来供求缺口增大。自然资源研究公司Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates于2021年10月1日发布了标题为“令人难以置信的萎缩的石油巨头”的研究。他们研究的四个石油巨头在2000年制定了一个目标,即每年增加5%的储量。然而,四家企业都失败了,它们的储备实际上都在下降。据Goehring 研究表示,“从2000年到2010年,四大巨头在上游资本支出上花费了6150亿美元。同期,他们生产了503亿桶油当量,发现了411亿桶油当量的新储量,导致储量替代率为86%,且平均发现和开发成本为每桶油当量 14.30美元。2010年至2020年间,上游资本支出飙升至1.15美元。与此同时,这些公司生产了506亿桶油当量,并发现了433亿桶油当量的新储量——与前十年非常吻合。尽管上游资本支出几乎翻了一番,但这些公司仍然无法用新的储备来替代生产。事实上,尽管支出增加,储备替代率仍保持在85%。成效没有显著提高,但寻找和开发新储量的成本却几乎翻了一番,从每桶油当量14.30美元增加到 26.40美元。”虽然面临全球经济增速放缓和新旧能源转型,2023-2025年全球原油需求每年仍将维持100-150万桶/日的增量,原油供给能力较难满足需求增量,从中长期来看,全球原油供需缺口将长期存在。以史为鉴,通胀期间能源公司往往表现更为突出。美股在1970年代通胀—滞胀阶段的表现,能源公司股价收益表现超过了10倍。到1981年底美股市值前20大公司中,能源板块甚至占了一半。回顾美联储的6次通胀—加息周期,可以发现能源公司跑赢市场并获得超额回报的胜算最大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"CVX":0.9,"OXY":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9028861435,"gmtCreate":1653195646527,"gmtModify":1676535238889,"author":{"id":"4087300025751020","authorId":"4087300025751020","name":"老八公","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27256ede8324832365cde987fa4cf48","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087300025751020","idStr":"4087300025751020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9028861435","repostId":"1141205493","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}