EggsyWong personal page - To The Moon

EggsyWong

EggsyWong

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2021-09-01

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Where Will Plug Power Be In 10 Years?

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Morgan Stanley: Commodities Find Themselves At The Center Of 2021's Most Important Stories

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APPS\">$Digital Turbine(APPS)$</a>???","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APPS\">$Digital Turbine(APPS)$</a>???","text":"$Digital Turbine(APPS)$???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66f9c0cc4e5d7ebfc7cc9c56867ea3cd","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/888994369","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":758,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881882404,"gmtCreate":1631323871508,"gmtModify":1676530528263,"author":{"id":"4087265138408030","authorId":"4087265138408030","name":"EggsyWong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17a036343f764ee355082a0cf28926d1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087265138408030","authorIdStr":"4087265138408030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APPS\">$Digital Turbine(APPS)$</a>???","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APPS\">$Digital Turbine(APPS)$</a>???","text":"$Digital Turbine(APPS)$???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66f9c0cc4e5d7ebfc7cc9c56867ea3cd","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/881882404","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":806,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":816394361,"gmtCreate":1630465247653,"gmtModify":1676530311188,"author":{"id":"4087265138408030","authorId":"4087265138408030","name":"EggsyWong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17a036343f764ee355082a0cf28926d1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087265138408030","authorIdStr":"4087265138408030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$</a>&nbsp;drop after revenue ! &nbsp;Is time to buy more share and hodl!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$</a>&nbsp;drop after revenue ! &nbsp;Is time to buy more share and hodl!","text":"$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ drop after revenue ! Is time to buy more share and hodl!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5305dd64bbbea082b0158389680ff3a1","width":"1125","height":"3887"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":287,"commentSize":82,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/816394361","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4940,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569982147441048","authorId":"3569982147441048","name":"Billie Lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2de8913068819a9735f0bb22ec7a5e72","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3569982147441048","authorIdStr":"3569982147441048"},"content":"They are a good company and these are the kind of company to buy the dips on. Be patient and get rewarded. $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$","text":"They are a good company and these are the kind of company to buy the dips on. Be patient and get rewarded. $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$","html":"They are a good company and these are the kind of company to buy the dips on. Be patient and get rewarded. $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$"},{"author":{"id":"3564697477514317","authorId":"3564697477514317","name":"YeanPin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13a42b01aa495210419cb03d7d9b98ef","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3564697477514317","authorIdStr":"3564697477514317"},"content":"Patience and discipline is a virtue that will benefit all traders, keeping emotion and snap judgments in check.","text":"Patience and discipline is a virtue that will benefit all traders, keeping emotion and snap judgments in check.","html":"Patience and discipline is a virtue that will benefit all traders, keeping emotion and snap judgments in check."}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805797842,"gmtCreate":1627905365786,"gmtModify":1703497557662,"author":{"id":"4087265138408030","authorId":"4087265138408030","name":"EggsyWong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17a036343f764ee355082a0cf28926d1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087265138408030","authorIdStr":"4087265138408030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PATH\">$UiPath(PATH)$</a>?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PATH\">$UiPath(PATH)$</a>?","text":"$UiPath(PATH)$?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe1d9ed1451c776be9d95bbb812918b9","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805797842","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":717,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3583836728100751","authorId":"3583836728100751","name":"pusheen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3e2c1fd9efb5914c71ceb7be333e3a2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3583836728100751","authorIdStr":"3583836728100751"},"content":"It will go tO the moon, just need a year","text":"It will go tO the moon, just need a year","html":"It will go tO the moon, just need a year"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805734136,"gmtCreate":1627905885925,"gmtModify":1703497570642,"author":{"id":"4087265138408030","authorId":"4087265138408030","name":"EggsyWong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17a036343f764ee355082a0cf28926d1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087265138408030","authorIdStr":"4087265138408030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>?","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fdfc69ed9f8c92bf8c5283e948c6186","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805734136","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3553640947421882","authorId":"3553640947421882","name":"HuiHui0527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60d52ee84b8822d2a31feae78369d308","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3553640947421882","authorIdStr":"3553640947421882"},"content":"Buy! Buy! Buy! [Salute] [Chuckle] [DOGE] [YoYo] [Yummy] [NosePick] [Wow] [Blush] [Onlooker] [Victory] [Helpless] [Smug] [Glance] [lovely] [Sly] [Duh] [Facepalm] [LOL] [smile] [smile]","text":"Buy! Buy! Buy! [Salute] [Chuckle] [DOGE] [YoYo] [Yummy] [NosePick] [Wow] [Blush] [Onlooker] [Victory] [Helpless] [Smug] [Glance] [lovely] [Sly] [Duh] [Facepalm] [LOL] [smile] [smile]","html":"Buy! Buy! Buy! [Salute] [Chuckle] [DOGE] [YoYo] [Yummy] [NosePick] [Wow] [Blush] [Onlooker] [Victory] [Helpless] [Smug] [Glance] [lovely] [Sly] [Duh] [Facepalm] [LOL] [smile] [smile]"},{"author":{"id":"3553640947421882","authorId":"3553640947421882","name":"HuiHui0527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60d52ee84b8822d2a31feae78369d308","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3553640947421882","authorIdStr":"3553640947421882"},"content":"Buy! Buy! Buy! [Like] [Like]","text":"Buy! Buy! Buy! [Like] [Like]","html":"Buy! Buy! Buy! [Like] [Like]"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833511904,"gmtCreate":1629249466108,"gmtModify":1676529978342,"author":{"id":"4087265138408030","authorId":"4087265138408030","name":"EggsyWong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17a036343f764ee355082a0cf28926d1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087265138408030","authorIdStr":"4087265138408030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$SE 20210820 320.0 CALL(SE)$</a>???","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$SE 20210820 320.0 CALL(SE)$</a>???","text":"$SE 20210820 320.0 CALL(SE)$???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb506cd450b53152ffd73847a0dbe63c","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/833511904","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":798,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810984548,"gmtCreate":1629939619184,"gmtModify":1676530177348,"author":{"id":"4087265138408030","authorId":"4087265138408030","name":"EggsyWong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17a036343f764ee355082a0cf28926d1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087265138408030","authorIdStr":"4087265138408030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/810984548","repostId":"1197778368","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":843,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896894584,"gmtCreate":1628566708748,"gmtModify":1703508251434,"author":{"id":"4087265138408030","authorId":"4087265138408030","name":"EggsyWong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17a036343f764ee355082a0cf28926d1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087265138408030","authorIdStr":"4087265138408030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment&nbsp;","listText":"Comment&nbsp;","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/896894584","repostId":"1149989510","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":763,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830992734,"gmtCreate":1628998222728,"gmtModify":1676529907496,"author":{"id":"4087265138408030","authorId":"4087265138408030","name":"EggsyWong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17a036343f764ee355082a0cf28926d1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087265138408030","authorIdStr":"4087265138408030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Help like","listText":"Help like","text":"Help like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830992734","repostId":"1133270372","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133270372","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628988501,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133270372?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-15 08:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Plug Power Be In 10 Years?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133270372","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPlug Power is active in an attractive industry with huge growth tailwinds.\nIt serves low-ri","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Plug Power is active in an attractive industry with huge growth tailwinds.</li>\n <li>It serves low-risk customers and has a strong position in its industry.</li>\n <li>Shares are pricing in a lot of future growth, and investors should consider what actual per-share returns might look like before deploying money at current valuations.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fa1aea5535d99338f385c168062b218\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Fokusiert/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Plug Power, Inc. (PLUG) is active in a high-growth industry, which translates into a strong long-term business growth outlook, as long as the company can capitalize on its goals and management executes well. The company is, however, not profitable yet, and the path to meaningful net profits holds some uncertainties still. Taking a longer-term view, we can expect that Plug Power will generate positive net profits despite the fact that shares are valuing the company at a relatively high current valuation. From a risk-reward standpoint, there may be better picks available, though, despite the fact that I believe that shares will trade materially higher in 2031.</p>\n<p><b>Plug Power Stock Price</b></p>\n<p>Plug Power, Inc. has seen its share price move up and down violently over the last year:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d940297249151eddcccf6440d20ef031\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Shares trade 130% higher than 12 months ago, but at the same time, shares trade at just one-third of the all-time high today. In early 2021, shares exploded upwards at a time when other renewable/new energy and related stocks, including EV plays, benefited from massive investor enthusiasm. Since then, enthusiasm seems to have cooled, and shares have reverted back to the $20s. At current prices, Plug Power, Inc. is valued at $16 billion based on a diluted share count of a little less than 600 million. Analysts are pretty bullish on the stock right now, as the consensus price target of $41 implies an upside potential of around 50% from current prices throughout the next year. It should be noted, however, that the analyst consensus price target has been lowered in recent months, and may continue to be lowered going forward. Due to non-existent profits PLUG can't be valued on an earnings basis, but shares trade for around 30x this year's revenue, which is quite expensive.</p>\n<p><b>Plug Power Stock Prediction</b></p>\n<p>Plug Power, Inc. is active in an absolute growth industry, as hydrogen fuel cells will see huge demand growth in coming years as they allow for an environmentally friendly alternative to other fuels. Plug Power, as a turnkey provider in a market leadership position for this technology, is well-positioned to capitalize on this megatrend. Through a network of global partnerships, including with Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP), Plug Power is working on growing the green hydrogen industryglobally:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91a8e3b57882e429c9eace431bd1f541\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Plug Power presentation</span></p>\n<p>Plug Power's green hydrogen can be used for powering trucks, busses, and other vehicles, while the company is also providing environmentally friendly alternatives to diesel generators in the megawatt scale range that can be used by utilities, for example. The company is, on top of that, also working on other ventures that are not ready to be commercialized yet, such as powering aircraft with hydrogen. Plug Power will have at least 5 hydrogen plants running in the US in 2024, i.e. three years from now, with more projects being in the pipeline both in the US and in overseas markets such as Europe.</p>\n<p>80% of Plug Power's customers are what the company calls blue chip customers, which includes companies such as Amazon (AMZN). These companies are oftentimes highly inclined to improve their CO2 footprint in order to receive better ESG ratings, and at the same time, these are low-risk customers as their strong balance sheets and cash flows mean that the risk of liquidity or solvency issues is negligible. Overall, Plug Power thus works with attractive counterparts, and their financial firepower means that Plug Power is not forced to sell its products at bargain prices, which is why the company has been able to generate relatively attractive product gross margins in the 30s in recent quarters.</p>\n<p>Due to the still relatively small scale of the company, Plug Power is not profitable on a net basis or operating basis, however. The company's operating expenses, relative to the revenues that Plug Power generates, are still too high for now. This should, however, change over time, as operating leverage and improving product margins should allow Plug Power to grow gross profits relative to operating expenses, which will result in improving profitability. Analysts are currently predicting positive net profits for fiscal 2024, or three years from now. It would, of course, be better if Plug Power had hit that point already, but for long-term oriented investors, two more years of negative profits will not be a disaster.</p>\n<p>When investing in a company such as Plug Power, the very near term is not too relevant, but what matters more is the longer-term potential of the company to grow its revenue and profits. Through the combination of ESG tailwinds, massive market growth, and its market leadership position, Plug Power seems to be well-positioned to grow its revenue for many years to come:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d6f0576ba51f219d85b18d90ccaf6f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"628\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>Analysts are currently predicting that revenues will grow at 50%+ a year over the next three years, while growth is forecasted to remain almost 30% through at least 2030, which equates to a highly attractive long-term growth outlook. There are, of course, no guarantees that this will indeed happen, as some risks to the business model remain. The company is not profitable yet, thus funding of future growth projects could theoretically become a problem. On top of that, it is possible that other players with deep pockets will try to disrupt the market or gain market share. The risk of that is, I believe, due to Plug Power's leadership position, not very large. But should the market become more competitive, non-profitable Plug Power might run into problems if it were to run into market share fights that could pressure margins.</p>\n<p>Some execution risks do thus remain for sure, and investors shouldn't see the above growth projections as crystal-clear forecasts that are infallible. Instead, however, the above predictions showcase what a base-case scenario could look like, and actual results might be better or worse than that. Overall, it can be said that the longer-term outlook for Plug Power's business is excellent, as the company should be able to grow at an attractive pace for many years to come, as investors, companies, and consumers put more and more emphasis on a smaller carbon footprint. Obvious growth prospects for an industry do not, however, automatically translate into share price gains. Those that bought shares of Cisco (CSCO) at the highs during the dot.com bubble, for example, are still in the red today, 22 years later, despite the massive growth the business has experienced in that time frame. Valuations should be considered as well, and Plug Power is far from cheap today.</p>\n<p><b>Plug Power Stock Forecast For 2030</b></p>\n<p>Today, Plug Power is trading for around 32x this year's expected revenue. If that was an earnings multiple, the stock still wouldn't be especially cheap, relative to how the average company is valued. At more than 30x sales, shares do seem very expensive. When we consider PLUG's growth outlook over the coming decade, that is relativized to some degree, but I believe that shares are still trading above fair value.</p>\n<p>If the analyst consensus estimate for 2030's revenues is correct, at $10.5 billion, then shares are trading at around 1.5x 2030's revenue right now. Many industrial names are trading for 1x to 2x this year's revenue right now, which indicates how much future growth is priced into PLUG's stock already. One can, of course, argue that PLUG's growth outlook in 2030 is likely still better than that of the average company today, as it seems very much possible for PLUG to grow at a double-digit rate well beyond 2030. But still, shares upside for PLUG's shares is not too great over the coming decade, I believe.</p>\n<p>If PLUG were to trade at a still relatively steep 3.5x revenue in 2030, this gets us to a market cap estimate of around $37billion, or roughly 2.3x as much as today. PLUG's share count will, however, not stay unchanged over the next decade, which is why returns on a per-share basis will be lower than that. If we assume that the share count climbs by just 2% a year, 2030's share count will stand at a little above 700 million. At a $37 billion market capitalization, each individual stock would then trade at around $53, which would mean a return of ~100% from today. On an annual basis, this would equate to returns of 8%. 8% annual returns are far from bad, but many things have to go right for that to happen -- PLUG has to execute well, deliver on growth projects, and avoid massive share issuance. When we also consider that this estimate requires a still rather high 3.5x sales multiple in 2030, then those returns are not great enough to warrant a buy rating, I believe. It would be different of 8% returns could come from a very de-risked blue chip with very low uncertainties, but that is not the case here. For reference, if PLUG executes well and hits growth estimates, but its shares trade for 2.5x sales in 2030, then the share price, assuming 2% annual dilution, would be $37, which would equate to just 4% annual returns. PLUG's share count has risen by around 50% over the last year alone, and even though I don't expect similar dilution in coming years, it is at least possible for PLUG's share count to rise by significantly more than 2% a year, which would pressure returns further.</p>\n<p>Overall, I do not believe that investors will lose money with PLUG over the next decade or more. But I also do not believe that investors will see very attractive returns in that time frame, despite the fact that Plug Power's underlying business growth outlook is highly attractive. Shares are pricing in a lot of future growth already, and I believe that returns in the sub-10% range can also be generated through lower-risk investments, with less volatile stocks.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion: Where Could Plug Power Be In 10 Years?</b></p>\n<p>One can't know that today, but we can make educated guesses. According to may scenarios laid out above, PLUG could trade at $37-$55 in 2030, factoring in another year of growth, we could end up at $40-$60 in 2031, I believe -- if many things go right. In case there are major hiccups with growth projects, or if the share count rises more than expected, these estimates may be too high.</p>\n<p>Overall, I believe that there is considerable long-term upside potential for PLUG's shares, but expected returns in the mid-to-high-single digits range are not gigantic, and the same returns can be generated through more mature, less volatile investments with fewer uncertainties and less execution risk. I thus do think that PLUG is not a buy right here, even though I like the company's growth prospects and its position in an attractive industry.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Plug Power Be In 10 Years?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Plug Power Be In 10 Years?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-15 08:48 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449266-plug-power-stock-in-10-years><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nPlug Power is active in an attractive industry with huge growth tailwinds.\nIt serves low-risk customers and has a strong position in its industry.\nShares are pricing in a lot of future growth...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449266-plug-power-stock-in-10-years\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLUG":"普拉格能源"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449266-plug-power-stock-in-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133270372","content_text":"Summary\n\nPlug Power is active in an attractive industry with huge growth tailwinds.\nIt serves low-risk customers and has a strong position in its industry.\nShares are pricing in a lot of future growth, and investors should consider what actual per-share returns might look like before deploying money at current valuations.\n\nFokusiert/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nPlug Power, Inc. (PLUG) is active in a high-growth industry, which translates into a strong long-term business growth outlook, as long as the company can capitalize on its goals and management executes well. The company is, however, not profitable yet, and the path to meaningful net profits holds some uncertainties still. Taking a longer-term view, we can expect that Plug Power will generate positive net profits despite the fact that shares are valuing the company at a relatively high current valuation. From a risk-reward standpoint, there may be better picks available, though, despite the fact that I believe that shares will trade materially higher in 2031.\nPlug Power Stock Price\nPlug Power, Inc. has seen its share price move up and down violently over the last year:\nData by YCharts\nShares trade 130% higher than 12 months ago, but at the same time, shares trade at just one-third of the all-time high today. In early 2021, shares exploded upwards at a time when other renewable/new energy and related stocks, including EV plays, benefited from massive investor enthusiasm. Since then, enthusiasm seems to have cooled, and shares have reverted back to the $20s. At current prices, Plug Power, Inc. is valued at $16 billion based on a diluted share count of a little less than 600 million. Analysts are pretty bullish on the stock right now, as the consensus price target of $41 implies an upside potential of around 50% from current prices throughout the next year. It should be noted, however, that the analyst consensus price target has been lowered in recent months, and may continue to be lowered going forward. Due to non-existent profits PLUG can't be valued on an earnings basis, but shares trade for around 30x this year's revenue, which is quite expensive.\nPlug Power Stock Prediction\nPlug Power, Inc. is active in an absolute growth industry, as hydrogen fuel cells will see huge demand growth in coming years as they allow for an environmentally friendly alternative to other fuels. Plug Power, as a turnkey provider in a market leadership position for this technology, is well-positioned to capitalize on this megatrend. Through a network of global partnerships, including with Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP), Plug Power is working on growing the green hydrogen industryglobally:\nSource: Plug Power presentation\nPlug Power's green hydrogen can be used for powering trucks, busses, and other vehicles, while the company is also providing environmentally friendly alternatives to diesel generators in the megawatt scale range that can be used by utilities, for example. The company is, on top of that, also working on other ventures that are not ready to be commercialized yet, such as powering aircraft with hydrogen. Plug Power will have at least 5 hydrogen plants running in the US in 2024, i.e. three years from now, with more projects being in the pipeline both in the US and in overseas markets such as Europe.\n80% of Plug Power's customers are what the company calls blue chip customers, which includes companies such as Amazon (AMZN). These companies are oftentimes highly inclined to improve their CO2 footprint in order to receive better ESG ratings, and at the same time, these are low-risk customers as their strong balance sheets and cash flows mean that the risk of liquidity or solvency issues is negligible. Overall, Plug Power thus works with attractive counterparts, and their financial firepower means that Plug Power is not forced to sell its products at bargain prices, which is why the company has been able to generate relatively attractive product gross margins in the 30s in recent quarters.\nDue to the still relatively small scale of the company, Plug Power is not profitable on a net basis or operating basis, however. The company's operating expenses, relative to the revenues that Plug Power generates, are still too high for now. This should, however, change over time, as operating leverage and improving product margins should allow Plug Power to grow gross profits relative to operating expenses, which will result in improving profitability. Analysts are currently predicting positive net profits for fiscal 2024, or three years from now. It would, of course, be better if Plug Power had hit that point already, but for long-term oriented investors, two more years of negative profits will not be a disaster.\nWhen investing in a company such as Plug Power, the very near term is not too relevant, but what matters more is the longer-term potential of the company to grow its revenue and profits. Through the combination of ESG tailwinds, massive market growth, and its market leadership position, Plug Power seems to be well-positioned to grow its revenue for many years to come:\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nAnalysts are currently predicting that revenues will grow at 50%+ a year over the next three years, while growth is forecasted to remain almost 30% through at least 2030, which equates to a highly attractive long-term growth outlook. There are, of course, no guarantees that this will indeed happen, as some risks to the business model remain. The company is not profitable yet, thus funding of future growth projects could theoretically become a problem. On top of that, it is possible that other players with deep pockets will try to disrupt the market or gain market share. The risk of that is, I believe, due to Plug Power's leadership position, not very large. But should the market become more competitive, non-profitable Plug Power might run into problems if it were to run into market share fights that could pressure margins.\nSome execution risks do thus remain for sure, and investors shouldn't see the above growth projections as crystal-clear forecasts that are infallible. Instead, however, the above predictions showcase what a base-case scenario could look like, and actual results might be better or worse than that. Overall, it can be said that the longer-term outlook for Plug Power's business is excellent, as the company should be able to grow at an attractive pace for many years to come, as investors, companies, and consumers put more and more emphasis on a smaller carbon footprint. Obvious growth prospects for an industry do not, however, automatically translate into share price gains. Those that bought shares of Cisco (CSCO) at the highs during the dot.com bubble, for example, are still in the red today, 22 years later, despite the massive growth the business has experienced in that time frame. Valuations should be considered as well, and Plug Power is far from cheap today.\nPlug Power Stock Forecast For 2030\nToday, Plug Power is trading for around 32x this year's expected revenue. If that was an earnings multiple, the stock still wouldn't be especially cheap, relative to how the average company is valued. At more than 30x sales, shares do seem very expensive. When we consider PLUG's growth outlook over the coming decade, that is relativized to some degree, but I believe that shares are still trading above fair value.\nIf the analyst consensus estimate for 2030's revenues is correct, at $10.5 billion, then shares are trading at around 1.5x 2030's revenue right now. Many industrial names are trading for 1x to 2x this year's revenue right now, which indicates how much future growth is priced into PLUG's stock already. One can, of course, argue that PLUG's growth outlook in 2030 is likely still better than that of the average company today, as it seems very much possible for PLUG to grow at a double-digit rate well beyond 2030. But still, shares upside for PLUG's shares is not too great over the coming decade, I believe.\nIf PLUG were to trade at a still relatively steep 3.5x revenue in 2030, this gets us to a market cap estimate of around $37billion, or roughly 2.3x as much as today. PLUG's share count will, however, not stay unchanged over the next decade, which is why returns on a per-share basis will be lower than that. If we assume that the share count climbs by just 2% a year, 2030's share count will stand at a little above 700 million. At a $37 billion market capitalization, each individual stock would then trade at around $53, which would mean a return of ~100% from today. On an annual basis, this would equate to returns of 8%. 8% annual returns are far from bad, but many things have to go right for that to happen -- PLUG has to execute well, deliver on growth projects, and avoid massive share issuance. When we also consider that this estimate requires a still rather high 3.5x sales multiple in 2030, then those returns are not great enough to warrant a buy rating, I believe. It would be different of 8% returns could come from a very de-risked blue chip with very low uncertainties, but that is not the case here. For reference, if PLUG executes well and hits growth estimates, but its shares trade for 2.5x sales in 2030, then the share price, assuming 2% annual dilution, would be $37, which would equate to just 4% annual returns. PLUG's share count has risen by around 50% over the last year alone, and even though I don't expect similar dilution in coming years, it is at least possible for PLUG's share count to rise by significantly more than 2% a year, which would pressure returns further.\nOverall, I do not believe that investors will lose money with PLUG over the next decade or more. But I also do not believe that investors will see very attractive returns in that time frame, despite the fact that Plug Power's underlying business growth outlook is highly attractive. Shares are pricing in a lot of future growth already, and I believe that returns in the sub-10% range can also be generated through lower-risk investments, with less volatile stocks.\nConclusion: Where Could Plug Power Be In 10 Years?\nOne can't know that today, but we can make educated guesses. According to may scenarios laid out above, PLUG could trade at $37-$55 in 2030, factoring in another year of growth, we could end up at $40-$60 in 2031, I believe -- if many things go right. In case there are major hiccups with growth projects, or if the share count rises more than expected, these estimates may be too high.\nOverall, I believe that there is considerable long-term upside potential for PLUG's shares, but expected returns in the mid-to-high-single digits range are not gigantic, and the same returns can be generated through more mature, less volatile investments with fewer uncertainties and less execution risk. I thus do think that PLUG is not a buy right here, even though I like the company's growth prospects and its position in an attractive industry.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLUG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":686,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812186532,"gmtCreate":1630564026526,"gmtModify":1676530341379,"author":{"id":"4087265138408030","authorId":"4087265138408030","name":"EggsyWong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17a036343f764ee355082a0cf28926d1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087265138408030","authorIdStr":"4087265138408030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/812186532","repostId":"2164481914","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":967,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890477607,"gmtCreate":1628131207709,"gmtModify":1703501807225,"author":{"id":"4087265138408030","authorId":"4087265138408030","name":"EggsyWong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17a036343f764ee355082a0cf28926d1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087265138408030","authorIdStr":"4087265138408030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOFI\">$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$</a>?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOFI\">$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$</a>?","text":"$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce63e21c4f8882d55be0ea06c48b6359","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/890477607","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1035,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817601149,"gmtCreate":1630937073381,"gmtModify":1676530424515,"author":{"id":"4087265138408030","authorId":"4087265138408030","name":"EggsyWong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17a036343f764ee355082a0cf28926d1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087265138408030","authorIdStr":"4087265138408030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like","listText":"like","text":"like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/817601149","repostId":"1183504703","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183504703","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630932846,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183504703?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-06 20:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: Commodities Find Themselves At The Center Of 2021's Most Important Stories","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183504703","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Commodities Tie the Year Together\n2021 has been a harder year for many investors than the headline i","content":"<p><u><b>Commodities Tie the Year Together</b></u></p>\n<p><b>2021 has been a harder year for many investors than the headline indices imply</b>. It’s been a year where ‘ESG’ and ‘Quant’ remain key structural trends in the investment community. And it’s been a year that has seen an almost constant, running debate over the outlook for growth and inflation.&nbsp;Commodities, it just so happens, find themselves at the center of all these stories.</p>\n<p>Let’s start with the challenging year.&nbsp;<b>The casual observer could be forgiven for thinking that 2021 has been a walk in the park, with global equities returning 16% through September 1, with historically low volatility.</b></p>\n<p><b>But under the surface, it’s been hard</b>. It’s been hard in a ‘good’ market like US equities, where major rotations have led to sharp swings in relative performance (US small caps rose +20% through mid-March, and are lower since). And it’s been hard in global equities, where MSCI China has fallen 26% since February 14, while MSCI Europe is up 14% over the same period. Many active managers are lagging their benchmarks.</p>\n<p>Yet quantitatively, it may be an even harder year in rates and FX. We run a&nbsp;Cross-Asset Systematic Trading tool, or CAST, which aims to identify what factors matter for cross-asset performance, and systematically invest based on how those factors look at a given moment. CAST asks “if I do what has historically worked in the market, given current information, what should I do?”.</p>\n<p>Year-to-date, following these historical patterns has led to poorer outcomes in interest rates and FX compared with all other asset classes.&nbsp;Where have historical patterns done better? Commodities. A lot better.</p>\n<p>Investing systematically based on attractive factors (carry, momentum, valuation, supportive fundamentals) has been working better in commodities than any other asset class (credit is second). Why? We have a few theories:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>Natural inefficiencies in the commodity market create risk premium.</p></li>\n <li><p>The tendency of commodities to move in longer cycles means that momentum is more effective.</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Central banks aren’t intervening in these markets (and investor flows have been more muted), allowing more ‘normal’ dynamics to play out.</b></p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Given the prominence of quant and systematic investing as themes in investment management, this is pretty important. To the extent one can, go where these types of strategies are working.</p>\n<p>Commodities also tie into a second big investment theme, ESG.&nbsp;The underlying reality and seriousness of climate change remains constant, and indeed, looks even more pressing following the&nbsp;release from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Yet while ESG-linked equities have seen pronounced swings in 2021, commodity markets have delivered a far more consistent message.</p>\n<p>The price for&nbsp;EU Carbon emissions, for example (MO1 Comdty), has risen 88% year-to-date. My colleague Robert Pulleyn has been bullish on the belief that a higher price on emissions is essential to meet the EU’s climate goals. Near term, he sees the risk of a decline given recent gains, before prices resume their upward trend toward €102/ton by 2027 (see&nbsp;Utilities: Carbon: Softness Risk Ahead? Before Upwards March Resumes, August 9, 2021).</p>\n<p>Wait, you might say. If commodity markets are so focused on the realities of climate change, why are oil prices higher this year, not lower? Again, we think the market is actually pretty rational. Shareholder pressure and the threat of future EV adoption is causing oil producers to dramatically reduce their capex plans, a development that my colleague Martijn Rats believes will help limit supply and keep prices elevated (see&nbsp;Podcast | Thoughts on the Market: The Curious Case of Norway, EVs and Oil, September 2, 2021).</p>\n<p>ESG and systematic investing are major industry themes. 2021 being harder than the headline indices suggest is something we’re all aware of. But the biggest story of the year is&nbsp;the debate around growth and inflation. What, it seems fair to say, do commodities have to say about that?</p>\n<p>While commodity prices are often synonymous with inflation, our forecasts suggest they’ll now play a smaller role. The biggest downside risk to prices is likely to come from core goods (where demand has been well-above trend), while the biggest risk to the upside is likely to come from rental growth (which is a large share of the basket, and strong). Nonetheless,<b>recent stabilization in commodity prices should reinforce the transitory nature of headline inflation, which our economists expect to moderate into mid-2022</b>.</p>\n<p>On the growth debate, however, commodities are front and center.<b>Our economists see a 3Q slowdown in both the&nbsp;US&nbsp;and&nbsp;China</b>(but not Europe, which is a story for another time). Copper prices and the CRB RIND index, two key harbingers of cyclical strength, remain high, consistent with a view that this economic weakness will be temporary.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/addcaef8407fdc8cf9f4efb87956bf0d\" tg-width=\"1258\" tg-height=\"650\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>We’ll be watching the resilience of these indicators as August data, reported in September, may look poor, and test the market's resolve.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: Commodities Find Themselves At The Center Of 2021's Most Important Stories</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: Commodities Find Themselves At The Center Of 2021's Most Important Stories\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-06 20:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-commodities-find-themselves-center-all-2021s-most-important-stories><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Commodities Tie the Year Together\n2021 has been a harder year for many investors than the headline indices imply. It’s been a year where ‘ESG’ and ‘Quant’ remain key structural trends in the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-commodities-find-themselves-center-all-2021s-most-important-stories\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-commodities-find-themselves-center-all-2021s-most-important-stories","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183504703","content_text":"Commodities Tie the Year Together\n2021 has been a harder year for many investors than the headline indices imply. It’s been a year where ‘ESG’ and ‘Quant’ remain key structural trends in the investment community. And it’s been a year that has seen an almost constant, running debate over the outlook for growth and inflation. Commodities, it just so happens, find themselves at the center of all these stories.\nLet’s start with the challenging year. The casual observer could be forgiven for thinking that 2021 has been a walk in the park, with global equities returning 16% through September 1, with historically low volatility.\nBut under the surface, it’s been hard. It’s been hard in a ‘good’ market like US equities, where major rotations have led to sharp swings in relative performance (US small caps rose +20% through mid-March, and are lower since). And it’s been hard in global equities, where MSCI China has fallen 26% since February 14, while MSCI Europe is up 14% over the same period. Many active managers are lagging their benchmarks.\nYet quantitatively, it may be an even harder year in rates and FX. We run a Cross-Asset Systematic Trading tool, or CAST, which aims to identify what factors matter for cross-asset performance, and systematically invest based on how those factors look at a given moment. CAST asks “if I do what has historically worked in the market, given current information, what should I do?”.\nYear-to-date, following these historical patterns has led to poorer outcomes in interest rates and FX compared with all other asset classes. Where have historical patterns done better? Commodities. A lot better.\nInvesting systematically based on attractive factors (carry, momentum, valuation, supportive fundamentals) has been working better in commodities than any other asset class (credit is second). Why? We have a few theories:\n\nNatural inefficiencies in the commodity market create risk premium.\nThe tendency of commodities to move in longer cycles means that momentum is more effective.\nCentral banks aren’t intervening in these markets (and investor flows have been more muted), allowing more ‘normal’ dynamics to play out.\n\nGiven the prominence of quant and systematic investing as themes in investment management, this is pretty important. To the extent one can, go where these types of strategies are working.\nCommodities also tie into a second big investment theme, ESG. The underlying reality and seriousness of climate change remains constant, and indeed, looks even more pressing following the release from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Yet while ESG-linked equities have seen pronounced swings in 2021, commodity markets have delivered a far more consistent message.\nThe price for EU Carbon emissions, for example (MO1 Comdty), has risen 88% year-to-date. My colleague Robert Pulleyn has been bullish on the belief that a higher price on emissions is essential to meet the EU’s climate goals. Near term, he sees the risk of a decline given recent gains, before prices resume their upward trend toward €102/ton by 2027 (see Utilities: Carbon: Softness Risk Ahead? Before Upwards March Resumes, August 9, 2021).\nWait, you might say. If commodity markets are so focused on the realities of climate change, why are oil prices higher this year, not lower? Again, we think the market is actually pretty rational. Shareholder pressure and the threat of future EV adoption is causing oil producers to dramatically reduce their capex plans, a development that my colleague Martijn Rats believes will help limit supply and keep prices elevated (see Podcast | Thoughts on the Market: The Curious Case of Norway, EVs and Oil, September 2, 2021).\nESG and systematic investing are major industry themes. 2021 being harder than the headline indices suggest is something we’re all aware of. But the biggest story of the year is the debate around growth and inflation. What, it seems fair to say, do commodities have to say about that?\nWhile commodity prices are often synonymous with inflation, our forecasts suggest they’ll now play a smaller role. The biggest downside risk to prices is likely to come from core goods (where demand has been well-above trend), while the biggest risk to the upside is likely to come from rental growth (which is a large share of the basket, and strong). Nonetheless,recent stabilization in commodity prices should reinforce the transitory nature of headline inflation, which our economists expect to moderate into mid-2022.\nOn the growth debate, however, commodities are front and center.Our economists see a 3Q slowdown in both the US and China(but not Europe, which is a story for another time). Copper prices and the CRB RIND index, two key harbingers of cyclical strength, remain high, consistent with a view that this economic weakness will be temporary.\n\nWe’ll be watching the resilience of these indicators as August data, reported in September, may look poor, and test the market's resolve.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":725,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}