康康的 personal page - To The Moon

康康的

康康的

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2024-07-03

Nice post and interesting

2022-08-13

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2022-08-20

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Senior Fed officials frequently voice hawks to "set the tone" for Powell's central bank meeting next week in advance?

2022-08-15

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This week's preview | Tencent Xiaomi's ideal financial report is coming! Federal Reserve meeting minutes to be released

2022-10-08

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2022-09-09

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Foreign media headlines | Powell reiterates that anti-inflation "will not give up until the goal is reached"

2022-07-16

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U.S. stocks usher in another critical moment as $1.9 trillion worth of hedged options expire

2022-07-06

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Last night and this morning | U.S. stocks rebounded deeply overnight! U.S. bond surge boosts technology stocks

2022-06-13

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Fed shrinking balance sheet: What's Different This Time?

2022-09-06

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Preview of Apple's autumn conference! Besides iPhone 14, what else is there?

2022-08-06

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2022-06-23

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2022-06-22

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2022-06-02

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2022-05-16

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2022-02-05

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2022-07-12

👌

Is the second quarter earnings season "more bad luck"? The "big test" of US stocks is coming!

2022-07-01

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2022-06-27

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The economy is weak and rate hike is expected to fall. Is the rebound of U.S. stocks serious?

2022-06-12

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Is Powell responsible for inflation? Biden really "pushed the pot" to the Fed

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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tonight","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255332860793080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":994,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":254946630652160,"gmtCreate":1703256525322,"gmtModify":1703256530292,"author":{"id":"3587038191942835","authorId":"3587038191942835","name":"康康的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a7001836b41194d4d68114ab8afcfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587038191942835","idStr":"3587038191942835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good game！ you must try to play it","listText":"good game！ you must try to play it","text":"good game！ you must try to play it","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/254946630652160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":938,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":323468045291696,"gmtCreate":1719985363776,"gmtModify":1719985367620,"author":{"id":"3587038191942835","authorId":"3587038191942835","name":"康康的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a7001836b41194d4d68114ab8afcfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587038191942835","idStr":"3587038191942835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice post and interesting","listText":"Nice post and interesting","text":"Nice post and interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323468045291696","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2414,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9990410540,"gmtCreate":1660390165183,"gmtModify":1676533463670,"author":{"id":"3587038191942835","authorId":"3587038191942835","name":"康康的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a7001836b41194d4d68114ab8afcfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587038191942835","idStr":"3587038191942835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9990410540","repostId":"1160701126","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9998652843,"gmtCreate":1660988808084,"gmtModify":1676536435918,"author":{"id":"3587038191942835","authorId":"3587038191942835","name":"康康的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a7001836b41194d4d68114ab8afcfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587038191942835","idStr":"3587038191942835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9998652843","repostId":"2260437405","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2260437405","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1660960527,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2260437405?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-20 09:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Senior Fed officials frequently voice hawks to \"set the tone\" for Powell's central bank meeting next week in advance?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2260437405","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储高官们最近的频频发生暗示，控制通胀仍然是美联储的首要目标，即便加息可能会将美国经济拖入衰退。市场认为，这可能是在为下周五美联储主席鲍威尔在全球央行大会上的鹰派讲话预热。下周，最令全球投资者瞩目的","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Recently, senior Fed officials have frequently hinted that controlling inflation remains the Fed's primary goal, even if rate hike may drag the U.S. economy into recession. The market believes that this may be a warm-up for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's hawkish speech at the global central bank meeting next Friday. Next week, one of the financial events that attracts the most attention of global investors will be the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting to be held in Wyoming, USA next Friday, August 26th. At this event, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech to discuss the economic outlook, and the content of his speech may indicate the direction of borrowing costs in the United States.</p><p><b>Before Powell's views, other senior Fed officials have recently made hawkish remarks, which seem to be \"setting the tone\" for Powell's speech.</b></p><p>Fed watchers expect Powell to speak hawkish as he reinforces the central bank's goal of curbing inflation and controlling expectations of future price increases.</p><p><b>On Friday, August 19, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said that the Fed must continue to fight inflation even if inflation leads the economy into recession.</b></p><p>Just a day ago, three senior Fed officials made hawkish comments.</p><p><b>St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, the Fed's big hawk, said he preferred the Fed's September rate hike of 75 basis points.</b></p><p>Bullard said he was considering supporting another sharp rate hike at the Fed's interest rate meeting next month, adding that he was not ready for the economy to have experienced the worst of surging inflation:</p><p>We should continue to quickly raise policy rates to levels that will put significant downward pressure on inflation. I really don't understand why rate hike should be put off until next year. When talking about next month's interest rate meeting, he said:</p><p>I'm now leaning towards rate hike 75 basis points again. I think we have a relatively good read of the economy and we have very high inflation, so I think it makes sense to continue raising policy rates and move into a range where we can control inflation.<b>On the same day, another hawkish Fed official, Kansas City Fed President Esther George, expressed similar views. She believes that U.S. inflation, while it may be easing, is still on the high side:</b></p><p>The U.S. CPI data for July is encouraging, but it seems too hasty to declare the Biden administration's victory in fighting inflation.<b>On Thursday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who has always been regarded as a dovish official of the Federal Reserve, believed that the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates \"slightly\" above 3% before the end of the year to cool inflation:</b></p><p>We need to raise interest rates, at least to a neutral level, around 3%, but probably into restrictive territory.<b>Daly further said that the specific rate hike in September depends on the next economic data. 50 basis points or 75 basis points may be an appropriate rate hike range.</b></p><p><b>Although Daly's statement is relatively moderate, because she has always been relatively dovish, her claimed possible rate hike of 75 basis points still broke the market's expectation that the Fed would suspend rate hike or significantly narrow its rate hike.</b></p><p><b>She went further:</b></p><p><b>We don't want the market to think that the Fed's path is hump-shaped, that is, a rapid rate hike this year and a big rate cut next year.</b><b>How does the market react?</b></p><p><b>The market this week seems to have begun to react to the hawkish views of the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>Major U.S. stock indexes have all fallen this week. The Nasdaq and S&P, which rose more than 3% last week, fell 2.62% and 1.21% respectively. The Nasdaq 100, which rose nearly 3% last week, fell 2.38%, both ending as of last week. The longest winning streak since November last year, set by four consecutive weeks of gains; The Dow, which rose nearly 3% last week, fell 0.16% and fell back after rebounding last week; The Russell 2000, which rose nearly 5% last week, fell 2.94%, ranking first in decline.</p><p>The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond has risen by 40 basis points this month.</p><p>In addition, hawkish comments from senior Fed officials caused the dollar to soar,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">The US Dollar Index</a>It surged 2% this week, the biggest weekly gain since April 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba50522a5146d203646cf9defca7a42f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The cryptocurrency's performance also appears to have been rippled by the Fed's hawkish stance, with a plunge on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9d3b186336496f29f7cb014dac4410\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Markets still expect the Fed to cut interest rates next year</b></p><p>Although the market believes that the Fed will \"do what it says\" and implement its hawkish stance this year, the market's expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates next year are getting higher and higher.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3263305c8596c88b8e08bf2006e1cf14\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>According to Ann-Katrin Petersen, senior investment strategist at the Investment Institute:</p><p>To bring inflation down to its 2% target, the Fed will have to suppress the economy.<b>But, in order to promote growth, the Fed will \"accept living with inflation\" at some point.</b>This dovish pivot is unlikely to happen anytime soon compared to what the market seems to expect right now, but this dovish pivot could come in 2023.</body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Senior Fed officials frequently voice hawks to \"set the tone\" for Powell's central bank meeting next week in advance?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSenior Fed officials frequently voice hawks to \"set the tone\" for Powell's central bank meeting next week in advance?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-08-20 09:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Recently, senior Fed officials have frequently hinted that controlling inflation remains the Fed's primary goal, even if rate hike may drag the U.S. economy into recession. The market believes that this may be a warm-up for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's hawkish speech at the global central bank meeting next Friday. Next week, one of the financial events that attracts the most attention of global investors will be the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting to be held in Wyoming, USA next Friday, August 26th. At this event, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech to discuss the economic outlook, and the content of his speech may indicate the direction of borrowing costs in the United States.</p><p><b>Before Powell's views, other senior Fed officials have recently made hawkish remarks, which seem to be \"setting the tone\" for Powell's speech.</b></p><p>Fed watchers expect Powell to speak hawkish as he reinforces the central bank's goal of curbing inflation and controlling expectations of future price increases.</p><p><b>On Friday, August 19, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said that the Fed must continue to fight inflation even if inflation leads the economy into recession.</b></p><p>Just a day ago, three senior Fed officials made hawkish comments.</p><p><b>St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, the Fed's big hawk, said he preferred the Fed's September rate hike of 75 basis points.</b></p><p>Bullard said he was considering supporting another sharp rate hike at the Fed's interest rate meeting next month, adding that he was not ready for the economy to have experienced the worst of surging inflation:</p><p>We should continue to quickly raise policy rates to levels that will put significant downward pressure on inflation. I really don't understand why rate hike should be put off until next year. When talking about next month's interest rate meeting, he said:</p><p>I'm now leaning towards rate hike 75 basis points again. I think we have a relatively good read of the economy and we have very high inflation, so I think it makes sense to continue raising policy rates and move into a range where we can control inflation.<b>On the same day, another hawkish Fed official, Kansas City Fed President Esther George, expressed similar views. She believes that U.S. inflation, while it may be easing, is still on the high side:</b></p><p>The U.S. CPI data for July is encouraging, but it seems too hasty to declare the Biden administration's victory in fighting inflation.<b>On Thursday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who has always been regarded as a dovish official of the Federal Reserve, believed that the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates \"slightly\" above 3% before the end of the year to cool inflation:</b></p><p>We need to raise interest rates, at least to a neutral level, around 3%, but probably into restrictive territory.<b>Daly further said that the specific rate hike in September depends on the next economic data. 50 basis points or 75 basis points may be an appropriate rate hike range.</b></p><p><b>Although Daly's statement is relatively moderate, because she has always been relatively dovish, her claimed possible rate hike of 75 basis points still broke the market's expectation that the Fed would suspend rate hike or significantly narrow its rate hike.</b></p><p><b>She went further:</b></p><p><b>We don't want the market to think that the Fed's path is hump-shaped, that is, a rapid rate hike this year and a big rate cut next year.</b><b>How does the market react?</b></p><p><b>The market this week seems to have begun to react to the hawkish views of the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>Major U.S. stock indexes have all fallen this week. The Nasdaq and S&P, which rose more than 3% last week, fell 2.62% and 1.21% respectively. The Nasdaq 100, which rose nearly 3% last week, fell 2.38%, both ending as of last week. The longest winning streak since November last year, set by four consecutive weeks of gains; The Dow, which rose nearly 3% last week, fell 0.16% and fell back after rebounding last week; The Russell 2000, which rose nearly 5% last week, fell 2.94%, ranking first in decline.</p><p>The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond has risen by 40 basis points this month.</p><p>In addition, hawkish comments from senior Fed officials caused the dollar to soar,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">The US Dollar Index</a>It surged 2% this week, the biggest weekly gain since April 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba50522a5146d203646cf9defca7a42f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The cryptocurrency's performance also appears to have been rippled by the Fed's hawkish stance, with a plunge on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9d3b186336496f29f7cb014dac4410\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Markets still expect the Fed to cut interest rates next year</b></p><p>Although the market believes that the Fed will \"do what it says\" and implement its hawkish stance this year, the market's expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates next year are getting higher and higher.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3263305c8596c88b8e08bf2006e1cf14\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>According to Ann-Katrin Petersen, senior investment strategist at the Investment Institute:</p><p>To bring inflation down to its 2% target, the Fed will have to suppress the economy.<b>But, in order to promote growth, the Fed will \"accept living with inflation\" at some point.</b>This dovish pivot is unlikely to happen anytime soon compared to what the market seems to expect right now, but this dovish pivot could come in 2023.</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3668238\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","OEX":"标普100","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SPY":"标普500ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3668238","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"2260437405","content_text":"美联储高官们最近的频频发生暗示，控制通胀仍然是美联储的首要目标，即便加息可能会将美国经济拖入衰退。市场认为，这可能是在为下周五美联储主席鲍威尔在全球央行大会上的鹰派讲话预热。下周，最令全球投资者瞩目的财经事件之一就是8月26日下周五在美国怀俄明州举办的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会了。在这场活动中，美联储主席鲍威尔将发表讲话，讨论经济前景，其讲话内容可能预示着美国的借贷成本走向。在鲍威尔发表观点之前，其他美联储高官最近纷纷发表鹰派言论，似乎是在为鲍威尔的讲话“定调”。美联储观察人士预计，鲍威尔将发表强硬言论，因为他强化了央行抑制通胀和控制未来物价上涨预期的目标。8月19日周五，里士满联储主席巴尔金（Thomas Barkin）表示，即使通胀导致经济陷入衰退，美联储也必须继续对抗通胀。就在一天前，三位美联储高官纷纷发表鹰派言论。美联储大鹰派圣路易斯联储主席布拉德（James Bullard）表示，他倾向于美联储9月加息75个基点。布拉德说，他正在考虑在下个月的美联储议息会议上支持再次大幅加息，并补充说他还没有准备好经济已经经历了通胀飙升的最糟糕时期：我们应该继续迅速将政策利率提高到将对通胀造成重大下行压力的水平。我真的不明白为什么要将加息拖到明年。在谈到下个月的议息会议时，他说：我现在倾向于再次加息75个基点。我认为我们对经济的解读相对较好，而且我们的通胀率非常高，所以我认为继续提高政策利率并进入能够控制通胀的区间是有意义的。同一天，另一位美联储鹰派官员堪萨斯城联储主席乔治（Esther George）也表达了类似的观点。她认为，美国通胀虽然可能正在趋于缓和，但仍然偏高：美国7月CPI数据是鼓舞人心的，但现在就宣布拜登政府抗通胀取得胜利还显得操之过急。周四，向来被视作美联储鸽派官员的旧金山联储主席戴利（Mary Daly）则认为，美联储应在年底前将利率“略微”提高到3%以上，以冷却通胀：我们需要提高利率，至少达到中性水平，约为3%，但可能会进入限制性区域。戴利进一步称，具体9月加息多少，要看接下来的经济数据，50个基点或者75个基点，都可能是合适的加息幅度。尽管戴利的表态相对温和，但由于她向来相对鸽派，她所称的可能加息75个基点，依然打破了市场对美联储暂停加息或者大幅收窄加息幅度的期待。她还进一步说：我们不希望市场认为美联储的路径是驼峰形的，即今年迅速加息，明年再大举降息。市场如何反应？本周的市场，似乎已经开始对美联储的鹰派观点做出反应。本周主要美股指均累计下跌，上周涨超3%的纳指和标普分别累跌2.62%和1.21%，上周涨近3%的纳斯达克100累跌2.38%，均结束截至上周连涨四周所创的去年11月以来最长连涨周；上周涨近3%的道指累跌0.16%，在上周反弹后回落；上周涨近5%的罗素2000累跌2.94%，跌幅居首。十年期美国国债收益率本月则已经走高了40个基点。此外，美联储高官们的鹰派言论导致美元飙升，美元指数本周飙升2%，这是自2020年4月以来的最大单周涨幅。加密货币的表现似乎也受到了美联储鹰派立场的波及，周五出现暴跌。市场仍预期明年美联储将降息尽管市场相信美联储今年内将“说到做到”，贯彻鹰派立场，但市场对明年美联储降息的预期却越来越高。贝莱德投资研究所高级投资策略师Ann-Katrin Petersen认为：为了将通胀率降至2%的目标，美联储将不得不压制经济。但是，为了促进增长，美联储将在某个时候“接受与通胀共存”。 与市场目前似乎预期的情况相比，这种鸽派转向不太可能在短期内出现，但这种鸽派转向可能会在2023年到来。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,".SPX":0.6,".IXIC":1,"DOG":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SPY":1,"SDOW":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,".DJI":1,"OEF":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"SPXU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":513,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9999206465,"gmtCreate":1660529940460,"gmtModify":1676533487315,"author":{"id":"3587038191942835","authorId":"3587038191942835","name":"康康的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a7001836b41194d4d68114ab8afcfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587038191942835","idStr":"3587038191942835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok&nbsp;","listText":"Ok&nbsp;","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9999206465","repostId":"1101951113","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101951113","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1660517243,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101951113?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-15 06:47","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"This week's preview | Tencent Xiaomi's ideal financial report is coming! Federal Reserve meeting minutes to be released","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101951113","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"本周（8.15-8.19）重磅财经事件：经济数据方面，美国零售销售月率、美国初请失业金人数、费城联储制造业指数、API/EIA原油库存等陆续公布。此外，投资者可重点关注美联储FOMC 7月货币政策会议","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Major financial events this week (8.15-8.19):</p><p><b>In terms of economic data, U.S. retail sales monthly rate</b>、<b>U.S. jobless claims</b>, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, API/EIA crude oil inventories, etc. have been announced one after another. In addition, investors can focus on<b>Minutes of the Federal Reserve's FOMC July monetary policy meeting</b>as well as<b>Hang Seng Index Series Review Results of Hang Seng Index Company for the second quarter of 2022.</b><b>In terms of financial reports,</b>Sunny Optical Technology, Weimob Group,<b>Li Auto</b>, Mavericks Electric,<b>Tencent Holdings</b>, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, WuXi Biologics, Target, NetEase, Cisco,<b>Xiaomi Group</b>Companies will announce one after another.<b>In terms of new shares,</b>Hong Kong stock Shuangcaizhuang and US stock Dajian Cloud Warehouse will be listed on Friday.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cbfa2c1c2d61f8d070ec9b68f4a6c94\" tg-width=\"1982\" tg-height=\"1428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Keywords for Monday, August 15: Sunny Optical Technology, Weimob Group, Li Auto, Mavericks Electric released financial reports</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51f0167f81d2486f06486a46c0708657\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"891\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Monday,<b>Data terms,</b>Investors can pay attention<b>New York Fed Manufacturing Index</b>、<b>U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index</b>And<b>Canadian wholesale sales monthly rate</b>。</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b>Hong Kong Stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00772\">Reading Group</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02382\">Sunny Optical Technology</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02013\">Weimob Group</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">Li Auto-W</a></b>, and US stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Mavericks Electric</a></b>Will announce its latest quarterly earnings report.</p><p>Previously, Li Auto announced delivery data for the second quarter, showing that a total of 28,687 Ideal ONE vehicles were delivered in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 63.2%. Since the launch of Ideal ONE, the cumulative delivery volume has reached 184,491 vehicles. Morgan Stanley's research report pointed out that on June 28, Ideal announced that it plans to issue up to US $2 billion in additional American Depositary Shares (ADS), and the funds raised are planned to be used to develop next-generation electric vehicle technology. Although investors may worry that Ideal will issue additional ADSs through the on-market stock issuance plan or affect the stock price in the short term, they believe that volatility should be controllable, capital replenishment is strategically positive, and its US $8 billion in cash and liquid assets are still expected to support Ideal's strategic and product ambitions. Li Auto has a target price of $41 and an overweight rating.<b>Keywords for Tuesday, August 16: minutes of RBA monetary policy meeting, WH Group, Tencent Music, Home Depot, etc. release earnings reports</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32b2b0717ac90e58085c7f0cbf9ad77c\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"920\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Tuesday, the United States will announce<b>Total new housing starts annualized</b>、<b>Total number of construction permits</b>、<b>Monthly rate of industrial output</b>And other data,<b>Canada to announce July CPI monthly rate</b>。 Furthermore,<b>RBA to release minutes of monetary policy meeting</b>。</p><p>On August 2, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate target by 50 basis points to 1.85%, in line with expectations. The RBA also said the size and timing of future rate hike will depend on upcoming data and the central bank's assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labor market. On August 16th, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting, from which investors can learn more details about the monetary policy outlook.<b>In terms of financial reports,</b>Hong Kong Stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00288\">WH Group</a></b>, US stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/API\">Acoustic net</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HD\">Home Depot</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">Sea</a></b>Will report earnings.</p><p><b>Keywords for Wednesday, August 17: U.S. retail sales monthly rate, Tencent Holdings, HKEx, WuXi Biologics, Target, etc. release financial reports</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/016e0e9a4cff0bd9a933e0e2d56f7d2c\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec2897290e66860d1f35843a5afabe4a\" tg-width=\"915\" tg-height=\"165\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Wednesday,<b>In terms of data, U.S. retail sales monthly rate, API/EIA crude oil inventories</b>Will be announced one after another<b>。</b></p><p><b>In terms of events,</b>The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b>Hong Kong Stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00388\">HKEX</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02269\">WuXi Biologics</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00291\">China Resources Beer</a></b>, US stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TGT\">Target</a></b>Will report earnings.</p><p><b>Keywords for Thursday, August 18: U.S. initial jobless claims, Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting minutes, NetEase, Cisco, etc. release financial reports</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/693333613635e8b4a423dcd86af640c5\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"702\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Thursday, investors can pay attention<b>U.S. jobless claims for the week</b>, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, annualized total existing home sales, monthly rate of leading indicators of the Consulting Chamber and other data.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor last Thursday showed that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending August 6 was 262,000, compared with the previous value of 260,000 and market expectations of 263,000. U.S. jobless claims rose for the second week in a row, nearing the highest level since November, a sign that the labor market continues to slow.<b>In terms of events, minutes of the Federal Reserve's FOMC July monetary policy meeting</b>Big announcement.</p><p>At 02:00 on July 28, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced that it would raise the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to the range of 2.25%-2.50%, marking two consecutive rate hike of 75 basis points. The Fed said it was ready to adjust policy as appropriate, reiterating that continued rate hike may be appropriate. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's July monetary policy meeting will be released on August 18, from which investors can learn more relevant details.<b>In terms of financial reports,</b>Hong Kong Stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00175\">Geely Automobile</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01833\">Ping An Good Doctor</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02057\">ZTO Express-SW</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">NetEase-S</a></b>, US stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">Cisco</a></b>Will report earnings.</p><p><b>In terms of new shares,</b>Hong Kong Stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02321\">Shuangcaizhuang</a></b>The winning results will be announced.</p><p><b>Keywords on Friday, August 19: Hang Seng Index quarterly inspection, Xiaomi Group, Deere Co., Ltd. released financial reports</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/693333613635e8b4a423dcd86af640c5\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"702\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Friday,<b>As for economic data,</b>The monthly rate of U.S. Treasury Bond and Canadian retail sales held by foreign central banks in the United States will be announced one after another this week.</p><p><b>In terms of events, Kansas Fed President George delivered a speech on the outlook for the US economy</b>； In addition, the Hang Seng Index Company will announce after the Hong Kong stock market closes that day<b>The results of the Hang Seng Index series review in the second quarter of 2022,</b>Changes in relevant index constituent stocks will take effect on September 5th.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b>Hong Kong Stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">Xiaomi Group-W</a></b>Earnings are coming<b>。</b></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This week's preview | Tencent Xiaomi's ideal financial report is coming! Federal Reserve meeting minutes to be released</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis week's preview | Tencent Xiaomi's ideal financial report is coming! Federal Reserve meeting minutes to be released\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-08-15 06:47</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Major financial events this week (8.15-8.19):</p><p><b>In terms of economic data, U.S. retail sales monthly rate</b>、<b>U.S. jobless claims</b>, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, API/EIA crude oil inventories, etc. have been announced one after another. In addition, investors can focus on<b>Minutes of the Federal Reserve's FOMC July monetary policy meeting</b>as well as<b>Hang Seng Index Series Review Results of Hang Seng Index Company for the second quarter of 2022.</b><b>In terms of financial reports,</b>Sunny Optical Technology, Weimob Group,<b>Li Auto</b>, Mavericks Electric,<b>Tencent Holdings</b>, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, WuXi Biologics, Target, NetEase, Cisco,<b>Xiaomi Group</b>Companies will announce one after another.<b>In terms of new shares,</b>Hong Kong stock Shuangcaizhuang and US stock Dajian Cloud Warehouse will be listed on Friday.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cbfa2c1c2d61f8d070ec9b68f4a6c94\" tg-width=\"1982\" tg-height=\"1428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Keywords for Monday, August 15: Sunny Optical Technology, Weimob Group, Li Auto, Mavericks Electric released financial reports</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51f0167f81d2486f06486a46c0708657\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"891\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Monday,<b>Data terms,</b>Investors can pay attention<b>New York Fed Manufacturing Index</b>、<b>U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index</b>And<b>Canadian wholesale sales monthly rate</b>。</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b>Hong Kong Stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00772\">Reading Group</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02382\">Sunny Optical Technology</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02013\">Weimob Group</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">Li Auto-W</a></b>, and US stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Mavericks Electric</a></b>Will announce its latest quarterly earnings report.</p><p>Previously, Li Auto announced delivery data for the second quarter, showing that a total of 28,687 Ideal ONE vehicles were delivered in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 63.2%. Since the launch of Ideal ONE, the cumulative delivery volume has reached 184,491 vehicles. Morgan Stanley's research report pointed out that on June 28, Ideal announced that it plans to issue up to US $2 billion in additional American Depositary Shares (ADS), and the funds raised are planned to be used to develop next-generation electric vehicle technology. Although investors may worry that Ideal will issue additional ADSs through the on-market stock issuance plan or affect the stock price in the short term, they believe that volatility should be controllable, capital replenishment is strategically positive, and its US $8 billion in cash and liquid assets are still expected to support Ideal's strategic and product ambitions. Li Auto has a target price of $41 and an overweight rating.<b>Keywords for Tuesday, August 16: minutes of RBA monetary policy meeting, WH Group, Tencent Music, Home Depot, etc. release earnings reports</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32b2b0717ac90e58085c7f0cbf9ad77c\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"920\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Tuesday, the United States will announce<b>Total new housing starts annualized</b>、<b>Total number of construction permits</b>、<b>Monthly rate of industrial output</b>And other data,<b>Canada to announce July CPI monthly rate</b>。 Furthermore,<b>RBA to release minutes of monetary policy meeting</b>。</p><p>On August 2, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate target by 50 basis points to 1.85%, in line with expectations. The RBA also said the size and timing of future rate hike will depend on upcoming data and the central bank's assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labor market. On August 16th, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting, from which investors can learn more details about the monetary policy outlook.<b>In terms of financial reports,</b>Hong Kong Stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00288\">WH Group</a></b>, US stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/API\">Acoustic net</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HD\">Home Depot</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">Sea</a></b>Will report earnings.</p><p><b>Keywords for Wednesday, August 17: U.S. retail sales monthly rate, Tencent Holdings, HKEx, WuXi Biologics, Target, etc. release financial reports</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/016e0e9a4cff0bd9a933e0e2d56f7d2c\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec2897290e66860d1f35843a5afabe4a\" tg-width=\"915\" tg-height=\"165\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Wednesday,<b>In terms of data, U.S. retail sales monthly rate, API/EIA crude oil inventories</b>Will be announced one after another<b>。</b></p><p><b>In terms of events,</b>The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b>Hong Kong Stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00388\">HKEX</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02269\">WuXi Biologics</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00291\">China Resources Beer</a></b>, US stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TGT\">Target</a></b>Will report earnings.</p><p><b>Keywords for Thursday, August 18: U.S. initial jobless claims, Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting minutes, NetEase, Cisco, etc. release financial reports</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/693333613635e8b4a423dcd86af640c5\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"702\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Thursday, investors can pay attention<b>U.S. jobless claims for the week</b>, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, annualized total existing home sales, monthly rate of leading indicators of the Consulting Chamber and other data.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor last Thursday showed that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending August 6 was 262,000, compared with the previous value of 260,000 and market expectations of 263,000. U.S. jobless claims rose for the second week in a row, nearing the highest level since November, a sign that the labor market continues to slow.<b>In terms of events, minutes of the Federal Reserve's FOMC July monetary policy meeting</b>Big announcement.</p><p>At 02:00 on July 28, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced that it would raise the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to the range of 2.25%-2.50%, marking two consecutive rate hike of 75 basis points. The Fed said it was ready to adjust policy as appropriate, reiterating that continued rate hike may be appropriate. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's July monetary policy meeting will be released on August 18, from which investors can learn more relevant details.<b>In terms of financial reports,</b>Hong Kong Stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00175\">Geely Automobile</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01833\">Ping An Good Doctor</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02057\">ZTO Express-SW</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">NetEase-S</a></b>, US stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">Cisco</a></b>Will report earnings.</p><p><b>In terms of new shares,</b>Hong Kong Stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02321\">Shuangcaizhuang</a></b>The winning results will be announced.</p><p><b>Keywords on Friday, August 19: Hang Seng Index quarterly inspection, Xiaomi Group, Deere Co., Ltd. released financial reports</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/693333613635e8b4a423dcd86af640c5\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"702\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Friday,<b>As for economic data,</b>The monthly rate of U.S. Treasury Bond and Canadian retail sales held by foreign central banks in the United States will be announced one after another this week.</p><p><b>In terms of events, Kansas Fed President George delivered a speech on the outlook for the US economy</b>； In addition, the Hang Seng Index Company will announce after the Hong Kong stock market closes that day<b>The results of the Hang Seng Index series review in the second quarter of 2022,</b>Changes in relevant index constituent stocks will take effect on September 5th.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b>Hong Kong Stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">Xiaomi Group-W</a></b>Earnings are coming<b>。</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb8d19d3e08337f29cab892fefc4ecea","relate_stocks":{"00700":"腾讯控股","LI":"理想汽车","01810":"小米集团-W","02015":"理想汽车-W",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101951113","content_text":"本周（8.15-8.19）重磅财经事件：经济数据方面，美国零售销售月率、美国初请失业金人数、费城联储制造业指数、API/EIA原油库存等陆续公布。此外，投资者可重点关注美联储FOMC 7月货币政策会议纪要内容以及恒指公司2022年第二季度恒生指数系列检讨结果。财报方面，舜宇光学科技、微盟集团、理想汽车、小牛电动、腾讯控股、港交所、药明生物、塔吉特、网易、思科、小米集团等公司将陆续公布。新股方面，港股双财庄、美股大健云仓将于周五上市。8月15日 周一关键词：舜宇光学科技、微盟集团、理想汽车、小牛电动发布财报周一，数据方面，投资者可关注美国纽约联储制造业指数、美国NAHB房产市场指数、以及加拿大批发销售月率。财报方面，港股阅文集团、舜宇光学科技、微盟集团、理想汽车-W、以及美股小牛电动将公布最新季度财报。此前，理想汽车公布二季度交付数据，显示第二季度累计交付28687辆理想ONE，同比增长63.2%。自理想ONE上市以来，累计交付量已达184491辆。大摩发研报指，6月28日理想宣布拟增发最高20亿美元美国存托股份(ADS)，集资拟用于研发下一代电动汽车技术。尽管投资者可能忧虑理想通过场内股票发行计划增发ADS或短期影响股价，但相信波动性应可控，资本补充属策略性利好，加上其80亿美元的现金及流动资产，仍预期可支援理想的战略和产品野心。对理想汽车目标价41美元，评级增持。8月16日 周二关键词：澳洲联储货币政策会议纪要，万洲国际、腾讯音乐、家得宝等发布财报周二，美国将公布新屋开工总数年化、营建许可总数、工业产出月率等数据，加拿大将公布7月CPI月率。此外，澳洲联储将公布货币政策会议纪要。8月2日，澳洲联储将现金利率目标上调50个基点至1.85%，符合预期。澳洲联储还表示，未来加息的规模和时机将取决于即将到来的数据以及央行对通胀和劳动力市场前景的评估。8月16日澳洲联储将公布货币政策会议纪要，投资者可以从中了解货币政策前景的更多细节。财报方面，港股万洲国际、美股腾讯音乐、声网、家得宝、沃尔玛、Sea将公布财报。8月17日 周三关键词：美国零售销售月率，腾讯控股、港交所、药明生物、塔吉特等发布财报周三，数据方面，美国零售销售月率、API/EIA原油库存将陆续公布。事件方面，新西兰联储将公布利率决议和货币政策声明。财报方面，港股香港交易所、腾讯控股、药明生物、华润啤酒，美股塔吉特将公布财报。8月18日 周四关键词：美国初请失业金人数，美联储货币政策会议纪要，网易、思科等发布财报周四，投资者可关注美国当周初请失业金人数、费城联储制造业指数、成屋销售总数年化、咨商会领先指标月率等数据。美国劳工部上周四公布的数据显示，美国截至8月6日当周初请失业金人数为26.2万人，前值为26万人，市场预期为26.3万人。美国初请失业金人数连续第二周上升，接近去年11月以来的最高水平，这表明劳动力市场继续放缓。事件方面，美联储FOMC 7月货币政策会议纪要重磅公布。北京时间7月28日02:00，美联储宣布将基准利率上调75个基点至2.25%-2.50%区间，为连续两次加息75个基点。美联储表示准备酌情调整政策，重申持续加息可能是合适的。8月18日将公布美联储7月货币政策会议纪要，投资者可以从中了解更多相关细节。财报方面，港股吉利汽车、平安好医生、中通快递-SW、网易-S，美股思科将公布财报。新股方面，港股双财庄将公布中签结果。8月19日 周五关键词：恒指季检，小米集团、迪尔股份发布财报周五，经济数据方面，美国当周外国央行持有美国国债、加拿大零售销售月率等将陆续公布。事件方面，堪萨斯联储主席乔治就美国经济前景发表讲话；此外，恒指公司将于当日港股盘后宣布2022年第二季度恒生指数系列检讨结果，相关指数成分股变动将于9月5日生效。财报方面，港股小米集团-W财报重磅来袭。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"00700":0.9,"02015":0.9,"01810":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"LI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":450,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914867205,"gmtCreate":1665239048608,"gmtModify":1676537577006,"author":{"id":"3587038191942835","authorId":"3587038191942835","name":"康康的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a7001836b41194d4d68114ab8afcfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587038191942835","idStr":"3587038191942835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914867205","repostId":"1162298976","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9936935276,"gmtCreate":1662690156995,"gmtModify":1676537119554,"author":{"id":"3587038191942835","authorId":"3587038191942835","name":"康康的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a7001836b41194d4d68114ab8afcfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587038191942835","idStr":"3587038191942835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I","listText":"I","text":"I","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9936935276","repostId":"2266046815","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2266046815","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1662673037,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2266046815?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-09 05:37","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Foreign media headlines | Powell reiterates that anti-inflation \"will not give up until the goal is reached\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2266046815","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"　　美联储主席鲍威尔周四在卡托研究所货币政策会议上表示，美联储抗通胀“不达目标不罢休”。　　美联储正在迅速提高利率，以遏制四十年来最热的通胀。　　欧洲央行历史性一次加息75个基点，行长拉加德暗示未来还有“多次”行动，以加紧抗击肆虐的通货膨胀，甚至可能再次实施这样幅度的加息。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. Powell said that the Fed's anti-inflation \"won't give up until it reaches its goal\"</b><b>2. The European Central Bank's historic rate hike of 75 basis points Lagarde hints that there is more to come</b><b>3. Musk: SpaceX has worked with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Company Discusses iPhone Satellite Service</b><b>4. Mercedes-Benz and Rivian plan to jointly produce electric trucks in Europe</b><b>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>The Group<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REV\">Revlon</a>Winning $500 million transfer case</b><b>6. Federal Reserve Evans expects another 75 basis point rate hike in September</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9497bd43c8891b47df27ee3135dc936\" tg-width=\"474\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Powell says the Fed's fight against inflation \"won't stop until it reaches its target\"</b></p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said at the Cato Institute monetary policy meeting on Thursday that the Fed's fight against inflation \"won't stop until it reaches its goal.\"</p><p>\"Like we've been doing, we need to act now, be determined, be unwavering,\" Powell said Thursday in a speech at a monetary policy conference hosted by the Cato Institute. \"My colleagues and I are strongly committed to this goal and will continue to do so,\" he spoke with the moderator during a virtual Q&A session.</p><p>The Federal Reserve is rapidly raising interest rates to curb the hottest inflation in four decades. Their next meeting is on Sept. 20-21, and Powell left open the option of 75 basis points in rate hike again or 50 basis points in rate hike instead, saying the final decision hinges on the \"general picture\" of economic data. The Federal Reserve has already issued two consecutive 75 basis point rate hike in June and July.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f19937b2b2eeba24492c5dcab77bcad0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>ECB's historic 75 basis point rate hike Lagarde hints there's more to come</b></p><p>The European Central Bank made a historic rate hike of 75 basis points, and President Christine Lagarde hinted that there will be \"many\" actions in the future to step up the fight against raging inflation, and may even implement rate hike of this magnitude again.</p><p>Despite the weak growth outlook and rising prices mainly driven by supply-side factors, policymakers made an unprecedented rate hike of 75 basis points on Thursday. The decision was in line with analyst expectations; As a result, the deposit rate rose to 0.75%.</p><p>\"If the data we assess meeting by meeting shows that we should have a substantial rate hike, we will do so,\" Lagarde said. As for the question of how many times \"several times\" means, she said, \"It may be more than two times, including this time, but it may also be less than five times.\"</p><p>Money market investors have increased their bets on further tightening of monetary policy by the European Central Bank, believing that the probability of another 75 basis point rate hike in October reaches 40%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67713cec93b4a8a558a975c68c630ef7\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Musk: SpaceX has worked with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Company Discusses iPhone Satellite Service</b></p><p>Musk said SpaceX has held talks with Apple about using Space Launch's Starlink service to provide satellite connectivity for the iPhone.</p><p>SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said on social media Thursday that the two companies had \"promising conversations.\" Using satellites for cell phones will work best when the technology is specifically tailored to space-based signals, he said.</p><p>The news comes a day after Apple said it would partner with Globalstar to offer satellite-based services for the next version of its ultra-popular iPhone.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86411839cc94be4d095f85959cdeaaa0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Mercedes-Benz, Rivian plan joint venture to produce electric vans in Europe</b></p><p>Shares of Rivian jumped 9% after Mercedes-Benz said Thursday it plans to build electric vans with Rivian at factories in Poland, Hungary or Romania in the next few years.</p><p>Mercedes-Benz said the companies have signed a memorandum of understanding and are planning how they will build their models on a joint production line, adding that it is also developing a new all-electric van architecture called VAN.EA.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1f70ba9ada451271ea4ba431f50f3d8\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>The Group<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REV\">Revlon</a>Winning $500 million transfer case</b></p><p>Citigroup won Revlon's $500 million transfer case, and a federal appeals court in the United States ruled that some of Revlon's creditors should return more than $500 million remitted to them by Citigroup.</p><p>For Citigroup's main banking unit, the appeal judgment is a major victory in its efforts to redeem this embarrassing mistake. This mistake once attracted special attention from Wall Street, forcing Citi to explain to regulators how it made this huge mistake. Jane Fraser, CEO of the company, called it a \"large-scale unforced error\".</p><p>It is reported that Citigroup accidentally remitted US $900 million to Revlon's lenders (creditors) due to manual processing errors in August 2020, and later failed to return most of them.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aeca5a591f9f2918693e878c90f4090a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Fed Evans expects another 75 basis point rate hike in September</b></p><p>Chicago Fed President Evans said policymakers are likely to make a third 75 basis point rate hike at the Sept. 20-21 meeting.</p><p>\"I think we have a good plan, likely 75 basis points rate hike in September,\" he said Thursday at an event hosted by DuPage College in Ill. \"I haven't made up my mind yet. But I do know that interest rates need to be adjusted well above where they are now.\" Evans has no vote on monetary policy this year.</p><p>After raising interest rates by 75 basis points in June and July respectively, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is open to a 75 or 50 basis point rate hike in September, saying the final decision depends on the \"overall\" performance of economic data.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign media headlines | Powell reiterates that anti-inflation \"will not give up until the goal is reached\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign media headlines | Powell reiterates that anti-inflation \"will not give up until the goal is reached\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-09 05:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. Powell said that the Fed's anti-inflation \"won't give up until it reaches its goal\"</b><b>2. The European Central Bank's historic rate hike of 75 basis points Lagarde hints that there is more to come</b><b>3. Musk: SpaceX has worked with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Company Discusses iPhone Satellite Service</b><b>4. Mercedes-Benz and Rivian plan to jointly produce electric trucks in Europe</b><b>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>The Group<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REV\">Revlon</a>Winning $500 million transfer case</b><b>6. Federal Reserve Evans expects another 75 basis point rate hike in September</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9497bd43c8891b47df27ee3135dc936\" tg-width=\"474\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Powell says the Fed's fight against inflation \"won't stop until it reaches its target\"</b></p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said at the Cato Institute monetary policy meeting on Thursday that the Fed's fight against inflation \"won't stop until it reaches its goal.\"</p><p>\"Like we've been doing, we need to act now, be determined, be unwavering,\" Powell said Thursday in a speech at a monetary policy conference hosted by the Cato Institute. \"My colleagues and I are strongly committed to this goal and will continue to do so,\" he spoke with the moderator during a virtual Q&A session.</p><p>The Federal Reserve is rapidly raising interest rates to curb the hottest inflation in four decades. Their next meeting is on Sept. 20-21, and Powell left open the option of 75 basis points in rate hike again or 50 basis points in rate hike instead, saying the final decision hinges on the \"general picture\" of economic data. The Federal Reserve has already issued two consecutive 75 basis point rate hike in June and July.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f19937b2b2eeba24492c5dcab77bcad0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>ECB's historic 75 basis point rate hike Lagarde hints there's more to come</b></p><p>The European Central Bank made a historic rate hike of 75 basis points, and President Christine Lagarde hinted that there will be \"many\" actions in the future to step up the fight against raging inflation, and may even implement rate hike of this magnitude again.</p><p>Despite the weak growth outlook and rising prices mainly driven by supply-side factors, policymakers made an unprecedented rate hike of 75 basis points on Thursday. The decision was in line with analyst expectations; As a result, the deposit rate rose to 0.75%.</p><p>\"If the data we assess meeting by meeting shows that we should have a substantial rate hike, we will do so,\" Lagarde said. As for the question of how many times \"several times\" means, she said, \"It may be more than two times, including this time, but it may also be less than five times.\"</p><p>Money market investors have increased their bets on further tightening of monetary policy by the European Central Bank, believing that the probability of another 75 basis point rate hike in October reaches 40%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67713cec93b4a8a558a975c68c630ef7\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Musk: SpaceX has worked with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Company Discusses iPhone Satellite Service</b></p><p>Musk said SpaceX has held talks with Apple about using Space Launch's Starlink service to provide satellite connectivity for the iPhone.</p><p>SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said on social media Thursday that the two companies had \"promising conversations.\" Using satellites for cell phones will work best when the technology is specifically tailored to space-based signals, he said.</p><p>The news comes a day after Apple said it would partner with Globalstar to offer satellite-based services for the next version of its ultra-popular iPhone.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86411839cc94be4d095f85959cdeaaa0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Mercedes-Benz, Rivian plan joint venture to produce electric vans in Europe</b></p><p>Shares of Rivian jumped 9% after Mercedes-Benz said Thursday it plans to build electric vans with Rivian at factories in Poland, Hungary or Romania in the next few years.</p><p>Mercedes-Benz said the companies have signed a memorandum of understanding and are planning how they will build their models on a joint production line, adding that it is also developing a new all-electric van architecture called VAN.EA.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1f70ba9ada451271ea4ba431f50f3d8\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>The Group<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REV\">Revlon</a>Winning $500 million transfer case</b></p><p>Citigroup won Revlon's $500 million transfer case, and a federal appeals court in the United States ruled that some of Revlon's creditors should return more than $500 million remitted to them by Citigroup.</p><p>For Citigroup's main banking unit, the appeal judgment is a major victory in its efforts to redeem this embarrassing mistake. This mistake once attracted special attention from Wall Street, forcing Citi to explain to regulators how it made this huge mistake. Jane Fraser, CEO of the company, called it a \"large-scale unforced error\".</p><p>It is reported that Citigroup accidentally remitted US $900 million to Revlon's lenders (creditors) due to manual processing errors in August 2020, and later failed to return most of them.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aeca5a591f9f2918693e878c90f4090a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Fed Evans expects another 75 basis point rate hike in September</b></p><p>Chicago Fed President Evans said policymakers are likely to make a third 75 basis point rate hike at the Sept. 20-21 meeting.</p><p>\"I think we have a good plan, likely 75 basis points rate hike in September,\" he said Thursday at an event hosted by DuPage College in Ill. \"I haven't made up my mind yet. But I do know that interest rates need to be adjusted well above where they are now.\" Evans has no vote on monetary policy this year.</p><p>After raising interest rates by 75 basis points in June and July respectively, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is open to a 75 or 50 basis point rate hike in September, saying the final decision depends on the \"overall\" performance of economic data.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-09-09/doc-imqmmtha6588983.shtml\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9497bd43c8891b47df27ee3135dc936","relate_stocks":{"UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4581":"高盛持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-09-09/doc-imqmmtha6588983.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2266046815","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、鲍威尔表示美联储抗通胀“不达目标不罢休”2、欧洲央行历史性加息75个基点 拉加德暗示后面还有更多3、马斯克：SpaceX曾与苹果公司讨论iPhone卫星服务4、梅赛德斯奔驰与Rivian计划合资在欧洲生产电动货车5、花旗集团在露华浓5亿美元转移案中胜诉6、美联储埃文斯预计9月将再度加息75基点鲍威尔表示美联储抗通胀“不达目标不罢休”美联储主席鲍威尔周四在卡托研究所货币政策会议上表示，美联储抗通胀“不达目标不罢休”。“就像我们一直在做的那样，我们需要立即行动、矢志不渝、坚定不移，”鲍威尔周四在卡托研究所举办的货币政策会议上讲话时表示。“我和我的同事们坚定致力于这个目标，并将继续下去。”他在一个虚拟的问答环节与主持人交流。美联储正在迅速提高利率，以遏制四十年来最热的通胀。他们下次会议将于9月20日至21日举行，鲍威尔保留了再次加息75个基点或改为加息50个基点的选择，表示最终决定取决于经济数据的“总体情况”。美联储已经在6月和7月连续两次加息75个基点。欧洲央行历史性加息75个基点 拉加德暗示后面还有更多欧洲央行历史性一次加息75个基点，行长拉加德暗示未来还有“多次”行动，以加紧抗击肆虐的通货膨胀，甚至可能再次实施这样幅度的加息。尽管经济增长前景疲软、物价上涨主要是供给侧因素推动，但决策者还是在周四前所未有地加息75个基点。该决定符合分析师预期；存款利率因此升至0.75%。“如果我们逐次会议评估的数据显示我们应该大幅加息，我们就会这么做，”拉加德表示。至于“几次”究竟代表几次的问题，她说“可能超过两次，包括这次，但也可能少于五次。”货币市场投资者增加对欧洲央行进一步收紧货币政策的押注，认为10月再加息75个基点的可能性达到40%。马斯克：SpaceX曾与苹果公司讨论iPhone卫星服务马斯克称，SpaceX 已与苹果公司就使用太空发射公司的Starlink服务为iPhone提供卫星连接进行了会谈。SpaceX首席执行官马斯克周四在社交媒体表示，两家公司进行了“有希望的对话”。他说，当该技术专门针对天基信号量身定制时，将卫星用于手机将效果最佳。这条消息发布前一天，苹果表示将与Globalstar合作，为其超受欢迎的iPhone的下一版本提供基于卫星的服务。梅赛德斯奔驰与Rivian计划合资在欧洲生产电动货车梅赛德斯-奔驰周四表示，计划和Rivian在未来几年内在波兰、匈牙利或罗马尼亚的工厂生产电动货车，Rivian 股价上涨 9%。梅赛德斯-奔驰表示，两家公司已经签署了一份谅解备忘录，并正在计划如何在一条联合生产线上生产他们的车型，并补充说它还在开发一种名为 VAN.EA 的新型全电动货车架构。花旗集团在露华浓5亿美元转移案中胜诉花旗集团在露华浓5亿美元转移案中胜诉，美国一联邦上诉法院判决露华浓的部分债权人返还花旗集团汇给他们的5亿多美元。对花旗集团的主要银行部门而言，上诉判决是其挽回这一尴尬错误努力的重大胜利。这一错误曾令华尔街格外关注，迫使花旗向监管机构解释如何犯下这一巨大错误。该公司CEO简·弗雷泽称这是一个“大规模的非受迫性错误”。据悉，花旗在2020年8月因人工处理出现失误，意外向露华浓的贷款方（债权人）汇去了9亿美元，后来未能返还其中大部分。美联储埃文斯预计9月将再度加息75基点芝加哥联邦储备银行行长埃文斯表示，决策者可能会在9月20-21日会议上第三次加息75基点。“我认为我们有一个好的计划，很可能在9月加息75基点，”他周四在伊利诺伊州杜佩奇学院主办的活动上说。 “我还没有下定决心。但我确实知道需要将利率调整到远高于现在的水平。” 埃文斯今年在货币政策上没有投票权。在6月和7月分别升息75基点后，美联储主席鲍威尔对9月加息75或50基点持开放态度，他说最终决定取决于经济数据的“整体”表现。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NQmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SH":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DDM":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"OEX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":869,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9072380402,"gmtCreate":1657954164306,"gmtModify":1676536087984,"author":{"id":"3587038191942835","authorId":"3587038191942835","name":"康康的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a7001836b41194d4d68114ab8afcfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587038191942835","idStr":"3587038191942835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9072380402","repostId":"1174621170","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174621170","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657855497,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1174621170?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-15 11:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. stocks usher in another critical moment as $1.9 trillion worth of hedged options expire","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174621170","media":"金十数据","summary":"美股进一步崩溃会刺激看跌期权买入，加剧市场波动。股票市场投资者面临着越来越多挑战，通胀冲击、大型银行业绩暴击......这周五又迎来了一个关键时刻：众多期权交易员必须决定下一步对冲行动。大约1.9万亿","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>A further collapse in U.S. stocks will stimulate put option buying and exacerbate market volatility. Investors in the stock market are facing more and more challenges, inflation shocks, big bank performance crits... and this Friday ushered in another critical moment: many options traders must decide their next hedging moves.</p><p><b>Approximately $1.9 Trillion in Options to Expire</b>, forcing investors to either roll over existing positions or open new ones.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is estimated that this monthly event involves $925 billion worth of S&P 500-linked contracts and $395 billion in individual stock derivatives.</p><p>With the S&P 500 down more than 20% from its January high, a growing question is: How much cover do bulls actually need? The intraday volatility of U.S. stocks rose sharply this week, and the Nasdaq 100 index rebounded sharply after falling sharply for two consecutive trading days. Whether to renew a hedged option is a complicated decision for professional speculators.</p><p>Michael Purves, founder of Tallbacken Capital Advisors said:</p><p>\"Many investors and traders have switched to holding cash, or are holding cash at a higher percentage than at the beginning of the year, so there is less demand for hedging. The market has priced in a lot of factors.\" With daily options trading volumes hitting annual records, what to do after expiration is a widely watched event on Wall Street. The movement of the derivatives market can cause the volatility of the underlying securities. There are signs that demand for options hedging is waning as fund managers cut their equity exposure, and others have opted for other hedging options, such as shorting an index during a plunge.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4750532c72e7ea00ca6dc31cf73323\" tg-width=\"691\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>U.S. stocks have fallen for the fifth day in a row as dismal results from Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan fueled concerns about economic growth. U.S. CPI data for June released earlier this week prompted traders to bet that the Fed's rate hike would accelerate, causing a further reversal in 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yields, which is widely regarded as a signal of recession.</p><p>The S&P 500 index opened down 2.1% on Thursday, then rebounded to recover most of its lost ground, closing at 3,790.38 points. Since hitting the year's low of 3666.77 in mid-June, the index's<b>The fluctuation range has been within 250 points</b>。</p><p>Compared with the strong anxiety of options investors in the U.S. bond market, the sentiment of U.S. stocks is more optimistic. Although the stock index continues to fall,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CBOE\">Chicago Board Options Exchange</a>The volatility index (fear index VIX) has yet to hit its March high, a sign that many market professionals see<b>The market is not panicking</b>。</p><p>Steven Sears, president of Options Solutions, said:</p><p>\"In a sense, the VIX index should move sharply higher because investor sentiment is getting worse and worse. Option expiration always attracts the attention of market observers, who will predict the market outlook from it.\" According to foreign media data, among the expiring option contracts linked to the S&P 500 index,<b>Most open interest with strike prices at 4000</b>。 However, for Brent Kochuba, founder of analytics facilitator SpotGamma, the 3800 level is more important because it is closer to where the index currently stands. Currently, 24,195 call option contracts and 35,528 put option contracts will expire at this strike price.</p><p>Judging from an indicator, the current<b>Hedging costs are fairly low</b>。 Data compiled by foreign media show that the skew indicator used by the S&P 500 to measure the cost of put options relative to call options has been hovering near a three-year low. Kochuba said:</p><p>\"We continue to believe that the market will not rebound until the interest rate guidance has a clearer direction, not until the Fed's July 27 policy meeting at the earliest. If the stock index does move further lower, it could lead to quite significant put buying, thereby exacerbating volatility.\"</body></html></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks usher in another critical moment as $1.9 trillion worth of hedged options expire</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks usher in another critical moment as $1.9 trillion worth of hedged options expire\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-15 11:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>A further collapse in U.S. stocks will stimulate put option buying and exacerbate market volatility. Investors in the stock market are facing more and more challenges, inflation shocks, big bank performance crits... and this Friday ushered in another critical moment: many options traders must decide their next hedging moves.</p><p><b>Approximately $1.9 Trillion in Options to Expire</b>, forcing investors to either roll over existing positions or open new ones.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is estimated that this monthly event involves $925 billion worth of S&P 500-linked contracts and $395 billion in individual stock derivatives.</p><p>With the S&P 500 down more than 20% from its January high, a growing question is: How much cover do bulls actually need? The intraday volatility of U.S. stocks rose sharply this week, and the Nasdaq 100 index rebounded sharply after falling sharply for two consecutive trading days. Whether to renew a hedged option is a complicated decision for professional speculators.</p><p>Michael Purves, founder of Tallbacken Capital Advisors said:</p><p>\"Many investors and traders have switched to holding cash, or are holding cash at a higher percentage than at the beginning of the year, so there is less demand for hedging. The market has priced in a lot of factors.\" With daily options trading volumes hitting annual records, what to do after expiration is a widely watched event on Wall Street. The movement of the derivatives market can cause the volatility of the underlying securities. There are signs that demand for options hedging is waning as fund managers cut their equity exposure, and others have opted for other hedging options, such as shorting an index during a plunge.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4750532c72e7ea00ca6dc31cf73323\" tg-width=\"691\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>U.S. stocks have fallen for the fifth day in a row as dismal results from Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan fueled concerns about economic growth. U.S. CPI data for June released earlier this week prompted traders to bet that the Fed's rate hike would accelerate, causing a further reversal in 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yields, which is widely regarded as a signal of recession.</p><p>The S&P 500 index opened down 2.1% on Thursday, then rebounded to recover most of its lost ground, closing at 3,790.38 points. Since hitting the year's low of 3666.77 in mid-June, the index's<b>The fluctuation range has been within 250 points</b>。</p><p>Compared with the strong anxiety of options investors in the U.S. bond market, the sentiment of U.S. stocks is more optimistic. Although the stock index continues to fall,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CBOE\">Chicago Board Options Exchange</a>The volatility index (fear index VIX) has yet to hit its March high, a sign that many market professionals see<b>The market is not panicking</b>。</p><p>Steven Sears, president of Options Solutions, said:</p><p>\"In a sense, the VIX index should move sharply higher because investor sentiment is getting worse and worse. Option expiration always attracts the attention of market observers, who will predict the market outlook from it.\" According to foreign media data, among the expiring option contracts linked to the S&P 500 index,<b>Most open interest with strike prices at 4000</b>。 However, for Brent Kochuba, founder of analytics facilitator SpotGamma, the 3800 level is more important because it is closer to where the index currently stands. Currently, 24,195 call option contracts and 35,528 put option contracts will expire at this strike price.</p><p>Judging from an indicator, the current<b>Hedging costs are fairly low</b>。 Data compiled by foreign media show that the skew indicator used by the S&P 500 to measure the cost of put options relative to call options has been hovering near a three-year low. Kochuba said:</p><p>\"We continue to believe that the market will not rebound until the interest rate guidance has a clearer direction, not until the Fed's July 27 policy meeting at the earliest. If the stock index does move further lower, it could lead to quite significant put buying, thereby exacerbating volatility.\"</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/97089\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/97089","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174621170","content_text":"美股进一步崩溃会刺激看跌期权买入，加剧市场波动。股票市场投资者面临着越来越多挑战，通胀冲击、大型银行业绩暴击......这周五又迎来了一个关键时刻：众多期权交易员必须决定下一步对冲行动。大约1.9万亿美元的期权将到期，迫使投资者要么将现有头寸展期，要么建立新头寸。高盛估计，这个月度事件涉及价值9250亿美元的标普500挂钩合约，以及3950亿美元的个股衍生品。随着标普500指数从1月份的高点下跌超过20%，一个日益凸显的问题是：多头实际上需要多大的保障？本周美股盘中波动率大幅上升，纳斯达克100指数连续两个交易日盘中大跌后大幅反弹。 对于专业投机者来说，是否续期对冲期权是一个复杂的决定。Tallbacken Capital Advisors创始人迈克尔·珀维斯 （Michael Purves） 表示：“许多投资者和交易员已经转为持有现金，或者现金持有比例比年初更高，因此对冲的需求减少了。市场已经消化了很多因素。”随着每日期权交易量创下年度纪录，到期之后该如何处理是华尔街广泛关注的事件。衍生品市场的走势能引发相关证券的波动。有迹象表明，随着基金经理削减股票敞口，期权对冲的需求正在减弱，还有一些人选择了其他对冲方式，例如在暴跌期间做空指数。由于大摩和小摩惨淡的业绩加剧了人们对经济增长的担忧，美国股市已经连续第五天下跌。本周稍早公布的美国6月CPI数据促使交易商押注美联储加息速度将加快，令2年期和10年期美国国债收益率进一步反转，这被普遍视为衰退信号。标普500指数周四开盘大跌2.1%，随后反弹收复大部分失地，收报3790.38点。自6月中旬触及年内低点3666.77以来，该指数的波动幅度一直在250点内。相较于美债市场期权投资者的强烈焦虑，美股的情绪更为乐观。尽管股指持续下跌，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（恐慌指数VIX）尚未触及3月高点，许多市场专业人士认为这一迹象表明市场并不恐慌。Options Solutions总裁史蒂文·西尔斯（Steven Sears）表示：“在某种意义上来说，VIX指数应该大幅走高才对，因为投资者情绪变坏而且越来越糟糕。期权到期总能吸引市场观察者的注意，他们会从中预判后市情况。”根据外媒数据，在与标普500指数挂钩的到期期权合约中，行权价在4000点的未平仓合约最多。然而，对于分析服务商SpotGamma的创始人Brent Kochuba来说，3800点水平更为重要，因为它更接近指数当前的位置。目前，该行权价下有24195份看涨期权合约和35528份看跌期权合约将到期。从一个指标来判断，现在的对冲成本相当低。外媒汇编的数据显示，标普500指数用来衡量看跌期权相对于看涨期权成本的skew指标一直徘徊在三年低点附近。Kochuba表示：“我们仍然认为，市场不会在利率指引有更明确的方向之前反弹，最早也要到美联储7月27日的政策会议。如果股指确实进一步走低，可能会导致相当重大的看跌期权买盘，从而加剧波动。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":863,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9070537306,"gmtCreate":1657073006505,"gmtModify":1676535944707,"author":{"id":"3587038191942835","authorId":"3587038191942835","name":"康康的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a7001836b41194d4d68114ab8afcfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587038191942835","idStr":"3587038191942835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9070537306","repostId":"1126427898","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126427898","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1657065123,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126427898?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-06 07:52","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | U.S. stocks rebounded deeply overnight! U.S. bond surge boosts technology stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126427898","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①隔夜美股低开高走上演绝地反击，纳指涨1.75%，中概股多数走高；②大宗商品重挫，美油跌破100美元，黄金创今年以来最低收盘价；③衰退担忧下，2-5年期收益率曲线一度倒挂；④英国政坛大地震，两位","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① Overnight, U.S. stocks staged a Jedi counterattack when open low rose, the Nasdaq rose 1.75%, and most Chinese concept stocks rose; ② Commodities plummeted, U.S. oil fell below $100, and gold hit its lowest closing price this year; ③ Under the fear of recession, the 2-5-year yield curve was once inverted; ④ There was a great earthquake in British politics, and two senior officials announced their resignation on the same day. Overseas Market</p><p>1. U.S. stocks closed mixed overnight, and large technology stocks rose across the board</p><p>U.S. stocks moved higher on open low on Tuesday, closing mixed, with lower Treasury Bond yields pushing technology stocks higher. As of the close, the Nasdaq rose 1.75%, the S&P 500 rose 0.16%, and the Dow fell 0.42%.</p><p>Big tech stocks all rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Up 1.89%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Up 3.60%, Meta up 5.10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Up 4.16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Up 1.26%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>Up 3.30%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Up 2.55%.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCFT\">Financial OneConnect</a>Up nearly 19%</p><p>Most of the popular Chinese concept stocks rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up 3.56%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Down 1.85%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up 2.78%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up 3.63%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 1.82%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Up 11.28%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Down 1.23%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Up 2.52%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>Up 4.78%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06638\">Financial OneConnect</a>It rose by more than 19%, and its Hong Kong stock market rose by more than 40% the day after its listing. New energy vehicle stocks soared,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Cars rose 3.84%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Up 6.11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up 6.10%, Faraday Future 48.73%.</p><p>3. European stocks closed down across the board, and major stock indexes all fell more than 2%.</p><p>European stocks closed down across the board on Tuesday, with Germany's DAX index falling 2.91% and France's CAC40 index falling 2.68%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 2.86%.</p><p>4. U.S. WTI crude oil fell 8.2% and fell below the $100 mark</p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed sharply lower on Tuesday, with U.S. WTI crude oil futures falling below the $100 per barrel mark, hitting their lowest closing price in two months. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $8.93, or 8.24%, to close at $99.50 a barrel, the largest drop since mid-March and May 10. The lowest closing price since.</p><p>Citigroup warned it could fall to $65 a barrel by the end of this year and $45 by the end of 2023 if a severe recession in demand arrives.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 2.1% on Tuesday, hitting an 8-month low</p><p>Gold futures prices in New York closed sharply lower on Tuesday and hit their lowest close so far this year. The price of gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $37.60, or 2.10%, at $1,763.90 a barrel, the lowest closing price since early December.</p><p>Gold fell sharply on Tuesday along with silver, copper and other commodities. Lun Copper closed down more than 4%, falling below the $8,000 mark, hitting a 17-month low, as recession worries dominated the market. ICE cotton futures prices once hit the daily limit.</p><p>6. U.S. bonds set off a storm, and the 2-5-year yield curve was once inverted amid recession fears</p><p>On Tuesday, the yield of the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond once rose 10 basis points to 2.98% in overseas trading, but then due to the resurgence of economic worries, the yield gain reversed, falling to a minimum of 2.8%. At one point intraday, the 2-year yield was slightly above the 10-year yield for the first time since mid-June and above the 5-year yield for the first time since March 2020. This curve inversion indicates that the market believes that the economic slowdown will eventually lead to a downward trend in short-term interest rates.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. US State Department spokesman: There are no plans for another round of negotiations with Iran</p><p>From June 28th to 29th, under the coordination of the European Union, Iran and the United States held indirect negotiations in Doha, Qatar, on the resumption of implementation of the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue, but no expected progress was made. On July 5, local time, U.S. State Department spokesman Price said at a briefing that there are currently no plans for another round of negotiations with Iran.</p><p>2. US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: Omicron BA.5 subtype has become the main strain causing novel coronavirus pneumonia in the United States</p><p>According to data released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on July 5, local time, the mutated Novel Coronavirus Omicron strain BA.5 subtype has become the main strain causing novel coronavirus pneumonia in the United States. Data show that BA.5 subtype infection cases currently account for 53.6% of new Novel Coronavirus infections in the United States, while BA.4 subtype infection cases account for 16.5%. The two together account for about 70% of the total number of infections in Novel Coronavirus.</p><p>3. WHO: More than 5,300 monkeypox cases have been reported globally, an increase of 56% in 8 days</p><p>On July 5, local time, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported that as of June 30, many countries around the world had reported 5,322 laboratory-confirmed cases of monkeypox, including one death. At a briefing in Geneva, WHO spokesperson Fatila Shaib told reporters that the number of confirmed cases increased by 56% compared with the 3,413 cases reported by WHO on June 22.</p><p>4. The International Energy Agency expects natural gas consumption to decrease slightly this year</p><p>The latest quarterly report on the natural gas market released by the International Energy Agency on July 5 shows that global natural gas consumption will decrease slightly this year and increase slowly in the following years due to soaring prices and the possible further reduction of Russian natural gas supply. The report said that global natural gas use is expected to shrink by 0.5% this year compared with 2021 levels; It is estimated that by 2025, global natural gas demand will only increase by 140 billion cubic meters compared with 2021.</p><p>5. Russia is about to levy a windfall profits tax on natural gas giants, with a total value of nearly US $20 billion</p><p>On July 5, local time, the Russian Parliament approved the imposition of a temporary windfall profits tax on energy giant Gazprom. The move would pump the equivalent of nearly $20 billion into Russia's state coffers as gas prices soar. According to a bill passed by the Russian State Duma on Tuesday, Gazprom will pay an additional 1.25 trillion rubles (about 19.72 billion US dollars) in mineral extraction taxes between September and November, or 416 billion rubles per month. The bill still needs to be approved by the Russian Federation Council and the President.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STO\">Norwegian oil</a>Industry strike ends</p><p>On the evening of July 5, local time, with the intervention of the Norwegian government, the strike of Equinor that began in the early morning of that day ended. The Norwegian government reportedly intervened in the strike through the Norwegian Compulsory Wage Commission, a mandatory measure the government can implement to stop ongoing labour disputes.</p><p>7. A major earthquake in British politics? Two senior officials announced their resignations on the same day, targeting Prime Minister Johnson</p><p>British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has suffered another serious political blow as two senior officials announced their resignations. On Tuesday (July 5) local time, British Health Secretary Sajid Javid and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak announced their resignations one after another, and both pointed the finger at Prime Minister Johnson. In his resignation letter, Javid said that after a series of scandals, he lost confidence in Johnson's ability to govern for the national interest, and that he could no longer serve in Johnson's administration with conscience. Javid said that many lawmakers and the public have lost confidence in Johnson.</p><p>8. The British Prime Minister appoints a new Chancellor of the Exchequer and Minister of Health</p><p>On the evening of July 5, local time, British Prime Minister Johnson announced the appointment of Nadeem Zahawi to succeed Sunak as the new Chancellor of the Exchequer. Zahawi was previously the British Minister of Education. In addition, Steve Buckley was appointed as the new health secretary, replacing Javid. Buckley was previously Johnson's chief of staff.</p><p>9. Turkey says it will promote negotiations on the Black Sea grain transportation channel to achieve results as soon as possible</p><p>On July 5, local time, Turkish President Erdogan stated that Turkey will work hard to reach an agreement with Russia and Ukraine on the Black Sea food security transportation channel. \"We will try to strengthen negotiations with Russia and Ukraine to achieve results within a week or ten days,\" Erdogan said, saying that the crisis in Ukraine has caused disruptions to the passage for transporting grain in the Black Sea region and raised problems with grain trade. Although Turkey has not suffered from global food shortages, some countries in the world, especially African countries, are facing food crises. At present, Turkey is working with the United Nations and other relevant parties to solve this problem.</p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine</p><p>1. Ukraine submits an application to join the OECD</p><p>The Ukrainian National News Agency reported on July 5 that Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmeygar submitted an application to join the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Matthias Coleman, Secretary-General of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) that day. Shmeygar said that Ukraine seeks to join the organization as soon as possible, and support from the OECD is crucial to Ukraine's post-war recovery and development.</p><p>2. British Prime Minister Johnson had a phone call with Ukrainian President Zelensky</p><p>On July 5, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson held a telephone meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to exchange the latest developments after the G7 summit and NATO summit. Johnson said that the latest military equipment provided by the UK, including 10 types of artillery equipment and ammunition, will arrive in Ukraine in the next few days or weeks. Zelensky informed Johnson of the current situation in Ukraine and the latest developments on the Russia-Ukraine front line. When the two sides talked about the Ukraine reconstruction conference held in Lugano, Switzerland a day ago, Johnson said he welcomed Ukraine's reconstruction plan and looked forward to Britain hosting next year's conference.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249582036\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla announces prototype of solar-extended range trailer that can provide battery life for electric pickup trucks</a></p><p>Based on reports from many technology media such as Electrek, Tesla demonstrated a prototype solar-powered extended-range trailer for the first time at the IdeenExpo exhibition in Hanover, Germany. Tesla says it can provide extra range for its electric pickup truck CyberTruck. In addition, this trailer is also equipped with SpaceX's satellite Internet receiver, which allows car owners to connect to the Internet in areas without telecommunications signals.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249583502\" target=\"_blank\">Targeting technology giants such as Google and Apple, the European Parliament passes two milestone bills</a></p><p>On July 5, local time, the European Parliament overwhelmingly passed the Digital Services Law and the Digital Market Law respectively. Some lawmakers claim that the passage of these two laws is a milestone and will be able to restrain the power of technology giants such as Google and Apple. It is reported that these two laws will come into effect around January 2024.</p><p>3. Volkswagen will close a production base in Russia</p><p>Volkswagen will close one of its two production sites in Russia, where it assembles cars under a contract with Russia's GAZ Group, a German union said Tuesday. In March, Volkswagen announced that production at its plants in Kaluga and Nizhny Novgorod would be suspended until further notice due to Western sanctions.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249258727\" target=\"_blank\">Canadian to destroy 13.6 million expired AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine doses</a></p><p>Health Canada announced on July 5, local time, that 13.6 million doses of AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine expired in the spring and will be destroyed. It is reported that this batch of 13.6 million doses of vaccine to be destroyed accounts for more than half of the total number of AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine in Canadian storage.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2248989013\" target=\"_blank\">Netflix: Stranger Things Sets New Viewership Record</a></p><p>On Tuesday local time, streaming media giant Netflix said that the total views of the latest season of Stranger Things have exceeded 1.15 billion hours. This means that this science fiction drama has become the most popular English TV series in Netflix's history. Another TV series on Netflix's platform with a broadcast time of more than 1 billion hours is the Korean drama \"Squid Game\" that became popular all over the world last year.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249853938\" target=\"_blank\">Bridgewater's flagship fund said to yield as much as 32% in the first half</a></p><p>According to media reports citing sources, thanks to increased market volatility, Pure Alpha II, the flagship fund of Bridgewater Fund, the world's largest hedge fund, achieved a high return rate of 32% in the first half of this year. The Pure Alpha II fund rose 4.8% in June, boosting its annualized return since its inception in 1991 to 11.4%, people familiar with the matter said.</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249553688\" target=\"_blank\">JPMorgan is short on Tesla: it will fall by more than 40%</a></p><p>All along,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>They are all among the most controversial companies that have attracted much attention from Wall Street. After Tesla's second-quarter deliveries missed expectations, bearish sentiment remains pervasive despite the company's record-high production in June. The latest investment bank to cut Tesla's price target is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>。 Tesla shares could fall more than 40% from current levels, the bank said.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | U.S. stocks rebounded deeply overnight! U.S. bond surge boosts technology stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | U.S. stocks rebounded deeply overnight! U.S. bond surge boosts technology stocks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-06 07:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① Overnight, U.S. stocks staged a Jedi counterattack when open low rose, the Nasdaq rose 1.75%, and most Chinese concept stocks rose; ② Commodities plummeted, U.S. oil fell below $100, and gold hit its lowest closing price this year; ③ Under the fear of recession, the 2-5-year yield curve was once inverted; ④ There was a great earthquake in British politics, and two senior officials announced their resignation on the same day. Overseas Market</p><p>1. U.S. stocks closed mixed overnight, and large technology stocks rose across the board</p><p>U.S. stocks moved higher on open low on Tuesday, closing mixed, with lower Treasury Bond yields pushing technology stocks higher. As of the close, the Nasdaq rose 1.75%, the S&P 500 rose 0.16%, and the Dow fell 0.42%.</p><p>Big tech stocks all rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Up 1.89%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Up 3.60%, Meta up 5.10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Up 4.16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Up 1.26%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>Up 3.30%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Up 2.55%.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCFT\">Financial OneConnect</a>Up nearly 19%</p><p>Most of the popular Chinese concept stocks rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up 3.56%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Down 1.85%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up 2.78%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up 3.63%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 1.82%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Up 11.28%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Down 1.23%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Up 2.52%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>Up 4.78%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06638\">Financial OneConnect</a>It rose by more than 19%, and its Hong Kong stock market rose by more than 40% the day after its listing. New energy vehicle stocks soared,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Cars rose 3.84%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Up 6.11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up 6.10%, Faraday Future 48.73%.</p><p>3. European stocks closed down across the board, and major stock indexes all fell more than 2%.</p><p>European stocks closed down across the board on Tuesday, with Germany's DAX index falling 2.91% and France's CAC40 index falling 2.68%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 2.86%.</p><p>4. U.S. WTI crude oil fell 8.2% and fell below the $100 mark</p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed sharply lower on Tuesday, with U.S. WTI crude oil futures falling below the $100 per barrel mark, hitting their lowest closing price in two months. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $8.93, or 8.24%, to close at $99.50 a barrel, the largest drop since mid-March and May 10. The lowest closing price since.</p><p>Citigroup warned it could fall to $65 a barrel by the end of this year and $45 by the end of 2023 if a severe recession in demand arrives.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 2.1% on Tuesday, hitting an 8-month low</p><p>Gold futures prices in New York closed sharply lower on Tuesday and hit their lowest close so far this year. The price of gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $37.60, or 2.10%, at $1,763.90 a barrel, the lowest closing price since early December.</p><p>Gold fell sharply on Tuesday along with silver, copper and other commodities. Lun Copper closed down more than 4%, falling below the $8,000 mark, hitting a 17-month low, as recession worries dominated the market. ICE cotton futures prices once hit the daily limit.</p><p>6. U.S. bonds set off a storm, and the 2-5-year yield curve was once inverted amid recession fears</p><p>On Tuesday, the yield of the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond once rose 10 basis points to 2.98% in overseas trading, but then due to the resurgence of economic worries, the yield gain reversed, falling to a minimum of 2.8%. At one point intraday, the 2-year yield was slightly above the 10-year yield for the first time since mid-June and above the 5-year yield for the first time since March 2020. This curve inversion indicates that the market believes that the economic slowdown will eventually lead to a downward trend in short-term interest rates.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. US State Department spokesman: There are no plans for another round of negotiations with Iran</p><p>From June 28th to 29th, under the coordination of the European Union, Iran and the United States held indirect negotiations in Doha, Qatar, on the resumption of implementation of the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue, but no expected progress was made. On July 5, local time, U.S. State Department spokesman Price said at a briefing that there are currently no plans for another round of negotiations with Iran.</p><p>2. US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: Omicron BA.5 subtype has become the main strain causing novel coronavirus pneumonia in the United States</p><p>According to data released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on July 5, local time, the mutated Novel Coronavirus Omicron strain BA.5 subtype has become the main strain causing novel coronavirus pneumonia in the United States. Data show that BA.5 subtype infection cases currently account for 53.6% of new Novel Coronavirus infections in the United States, while BA.4 subtype infection cases account for 16.5%. The two together account for about 70% of the total number of infections in Novel Coronavirus.</p><p>3. WHO: More than 5,300 monkeypox cases have been reported globally, an increase of 56% in 8 days</p><p>On July 5, local time, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported that as of June 30, many countries around the world had reported 5,322 laboratory-confirmed cases of monkeypox, including one death. At a briefing in Geneva, WHO spokesperson Fatila Shaib told reporters that the number of confirmed cases increased by 56% compared with the 3,413 cases reported by WHO on June 22.</p><p>4. The International Energy Agency expects natural gas consumption to decrease slightly this year</p><p>The latest quarterly report on the natural gas market released by the International Energy Agency on July 5 shows that global natural gas consumption will decrease slightly this year and increase slowly in the following years due to soaring prices and the possible further reduction of Russian natural gas supply. The report said that global natural gas use is expected to shrink by 0.5% this year compared with 2021 levels; It is estimated that by 2025, global natural gas demand will only increase by 140 billion cubic meters compared with 2021.</p><p>5. Russia is about to levy a windfall profits tax on natural gas giants, with a total value of nearly US $20 billion</p><p>On July 5, local time, the Russian Parliament approved the imposition of a temporary windfall profits tax on energy giant Gazprom. The move would pump the equivalent of nearly $20 billion into Russia's state coffers as gas prices soar. According to a bill passed by the Russian State Duma on Tuesday, Gazprom will pay an additional 1.25 trillion rubles (about 19.72 billion US dollars) in mineral extraction taxes between September and November, or 416 billion rubles per month. The bill still needs to be approved by the Russian Federation Council and the President.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STO\">Norwegian oil</a>Industry strike ends</p><p>On the evening of July 5, local time, with the intervention of the Norwegian government, the strike of Equinor that began in the early morning of that day ended. The Norwegian government reportedly intervened in the strike through the Norwegian Compulsory Wage Commission, a mandatory measure the government can implement to stop ongoing labour disputes.</p><p>7. A major earthquake in British politics? Two senior officials announced their resignations on the same day, targeting Prime Minister Johnson</p><p>British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has suffered another serious political blow as two senior officials announced their resignations. On Tuesday (July 5) local time, British Health Secretary Sajid Javid and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak announced their resignations one after another, and both pointed the finger at Prime Minister Johnson. In his resignation letter, Javid said that after a series of scandals, he lost confidence in Johnson's ability to govern for the national interest, and that he could no longer serve in Johnson's administration with conscience. Javid said that many lawmakers and the public have lost confidence in Johnson.</p><p>8. The British Prime Minister appoints a new Chancellor of the Exchequer and Minister of Health</p><p>On the evening of July 5, local time, British Prime Minister Johnson announced the appointment of Nadeem Zahawi to succeed Sunak as the new Chancellor of the Exchequer. Zahawi was previously the British Minister of Education. In addition, Steve Buckley was appointed as the new health secretary, replacing Javid. Buckley was previously Johnson's chief of staff.</p><p>9. Turkey says it will promote negotiations on the Black Sea grain transportation channel to achieve results as soon as possible</p><p>On July 5, local time, Turkish President Erdogan stated that Turkey will work hard to reach an agreement with Russia and Ukraine on the Black Sea food security transportation channel. \"We will try to strengthen negotiations with Russia and Ukraine to achieve results within a week or ten days,\" Erdogan said, saying that the crisis in Ukraine has caused disruptions to the passage for transporting grain in the Black Sea region and raised problems with grain trade. Although Turkey has not suffered from global food shortages, some countries in the world, especially African countries, are facing food crises. At present, Turkey is working with the United Nations and other relevant parties to solve this problem.</p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine</p><p>1. Ukraine submits an application to join the OECD</p><p>The Ukrainian National News Agency reported on July 5 that Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmeygar submitted an application to join the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Matthias Coleman, Secretary-General of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) that day. Shmeygar said that Ukraine seeks to join the organization as soon as possible, and support from the OECD is crucial to Ukraine's post-war recovery and development.</p><p>2. British Prime Minister Johnson had a phone call with Ukrainian President Zelensky</p><p>On July 5, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson held a telephone meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to exchange the latest developments after the G7 summit and NATO summit. Johnson said that the latest military equipment provided by the UK, including 10 types of artillery equipment and ammunition, will arrive in Ukraine in the next few days or weeks. Zelensky informed Johnson of the current situation in Ukraine and the latest developments on the Russia-Ukraine front line. When the two sides talked about the Ukraine reconstruction conference held in Lugano, Switzerland a day ago, Johnson said he welcomed Ukraine's reconstruction plan and looked forward to Britain hosting next year's conference.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249582036\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla announces prototype of solar-extended range trailer that can provide battery life for electric pickup trucks</a></p><p>Based on reports from many technology media such as Electrek, Tesla demonstrated a prototype solar-powered extended-range trailer for the first time at the IdeenExpo exhibition in Hanover, Germany. Tesla says it can provide extra range for its electric pickup truck CyberTruck. In addition, this trailer is also equipped with SpaceX's satellite Internet receiver, which allows car owners to connect to the Internet in areas without telecommunications signals.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249583502\" target=\"_blank\">Targeting technology giants such as Google and Apple, the European Parliament passes two milestone bills</a></p><p>On July 5, local time, the European Parliament overwhelmingly passed the Digital Services Law and the Digital Market Law respectively. Some lawmakers claim that the passage of these two laws is a milestone and will be able to restrain the power of technology giants such as Google and Apple. It is reported that these two laws will come into effect around January 2024.</p><p>3. Volkswagen will close a production base in Russia</p><p>Volkswagen will close one of its two production sites in Russia, where it assembles cars under a contract with Russia's GAZ Group, a German union said Tuesday. In March, Volkswagen announced that production at its plants in Kaluga and Nizhny Novgorod would be suspended until further notice due to Western sanctions.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249258727\" target=\"_blank\">Canadian to destroy 13.6 million expired AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine doses</a></p><p>Health Canada announced on July 5, local time, that 13.6 million doses of AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine expired in the spring and will be destroyed. It is reported that this batch of 13.6 million doses of vaccine to be destroyed accounts for more than half of the total number of AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine in Canadian storage.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2248989013\" target=\"_blank\">Netflix: Stranger Things Sets New Viewership Record</a></p><p>On Tuesday local time, streaming media giant Netflix said that the total views of the latest season of Stranger Things have exceeded 1.15 billion hours. This means that this science fiction drama has become the most popular English TV series in Netflix's history. Another TV series on Netflix's platform with a broadcast time of more than 1 billion hours is the Korean drama \"Squid Game\" that became popular all over the world last year.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249853938\" target=\"_blank\">Bridgewater's flagship fund said to yield as much as 32% in the first half</a></p><p>According to media reports citing sources, thanks to increased market volatility, Pure Alpha II, the flagship fund of Bridgewater Fund, the world's largest hedge fund, achieved a high return rate of 32% in the first half of this year. The Pure Alpha II fund rose 4.8% in June, boosting its annualized return since its inception in 1991 to 11.4%, people familiar with the matter said.</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249553688\" target=\"_blank\">JPMorgan is short on Tesla: it will fall by more than 40%</a></p><p>All along,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>They are all among the most controversial companies that have attracted much attention from Wall Street. After Tesla's second-quarter deliveries missed expectations, bearish sentiment remains pervasive despite the company's record-high production in June. The latest investment bank to cut Tesla's price target is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>。 Tesla shares could fall more than 40% from current levels, the bank said.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"159831":"黄金","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126427898","content_text":"摘要：①隔夜美股低开高走上演绝地反击，纳指涨1.75%，中概股多数走高；②大宗商品重挫，美油跌破100美元，黄金创今年以来最低收盘价；③衰退担忧下，2-5年期收益率曲线一度倒挂；④英国政坛大地震，两位高官同日宣布辞职。海外市场1、隔夜美股收盘涨跌不一 大型科技股全线上涨美股周二低开高走，收盘涨跌不一，国债收益率走低推动科技股上涨。截至收盘，纳指涨1.75%，标普500指数涨0.16%，道指跌0.42%。大型科技股悉数上涨，苹果涨1.89%，亚马逊涨3.60%，Meta涨5.10%，谷歌涨4.16%，微软涨1.26%，奈飞涨3.30%，特斯拉涨2.55%。2、热门中概股多数走高金融壹账通涨近19%热门中概股多数走高，阿里巴巴涨3.56%，京东跌1.85%，拼多多涨2.78%，哔哩哔哩涨3.63%，百度涨1.82%，新东方涨11.28%，网易跌1.23%，爱奇艺涨2.52%，好未来涨4.78%；金融壹账通大涨超19%，其港股上市次日大涨超40%。新能源汽车股大涨，蔚来汽车涨3.84%，小鹏汽车涨6.11%，理想汽车涨6.10%，法拉第未来48.73%。3、欧股收盘全线下跌 主要股指均跌逾2%欧股周二收盘全线下跌，德国DAX指数跌2.91%，法国CAC40指数跌2.68%，英国富时100指数跌2.86%。4、美国WTI原油重挫8.2%跌破100美元关口原油期货价格周二大幅收跌，美国WTI原油期货跌破每桶100美元关口，创两个月来的最低收盘价。纽约商品交易所8月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格收跌8.93美元，跌幅为8.24%，报收于每桶99.50美元，创3月中旬以来最大跌幅，以及5月10日以来的最低收盘价。花旗集团警告称，如果需求严重衰退到来，到今年年底可能会跌至每桶65美元，到2023年底跌至45美元。5、纽约黄金期货周二收跌2.1% 创8个月新低纽约黄金期货价格周二大幅收跌，并创今年迄今的最低收盘价。纽约商品交易所8月交割的黄金期货价格收跌37.60美元，跌幅为2.10%，报收于每桶1763.90美元，创12月初以来的最低收盘价。周二黄金与白银、铜和其他大宗商品一起大幅下跌。伦铜收跌逾4%，跌破8000美元关口，创最近17个月低点，经济衰退忧虑主导市场。ICE棉花期货价格一度触及跌停。6、美债掀起惊涛 衰退担忧下2-5年期收益率曲线一度倒挂周二基准10年期美国国债收益率在海外交易中一度上涨10个基点至2.98%，但后来由于经济忧虑再度涌现，收益率涨势逆转，最低跌到了2.8%。盘中，2年期收益率一度自6月中旬以来首次略高于10年期收益率，并且自2020年3月以来首次高于5年期收益率。这种曲线倒挂现象表明市场认为经济放缓最终会导致短期利率下行。国际宏观1、美国务院发言人：没有与伊朗进行另一轮谈判的计划6月28日至29日，在欧盟的协调下，伊朗和美国在卡塔尔首都多哈就伊朗核问题全面协议恢复履约举行间接谈判，但没有取得预期的进展。当地时间7月5日，美国国务院发言人普赖斯在简报会上称，目前没有与伊朗进行另一轮谈判的计划。2、美疾控中心：奥密克戎BA.5亚型已成为全美导致新冠肺炎的主要毒株根据美国疾控中心当地时间7月5日公布的数据，变异新冠病毒奥密克戎毒株BA.5亚型已经成为全美导致新冠肺炎的主要毒株。数据显示，BA.5亚型感染病例目前占全美新增新冠病毒感染病例的53.6%，而BA.4亚型感染病例占16.5%，两者合计约占新冠病毒感染病例总数的70%。3、世卫组织：全球已报告超5300例猴痘病例 8天时间增长了56%当地时间7月5日，世界卫生组织（WHO）通报称，截至6月30日，全球多国已报告5322例经实验室确诊的猴痘病例，其中1人死亡。在日内瓦举行的简报会上，世卫组织发言人法蒂拉·沙伊布告诉记者，该确诊病例数比世卫组织6月22日通报的3413例增长了56%。4、国际能源署预期今年天然气消费小幅减少国际能源署7月5日发布的天然气市场最新季度报告显示，由于价格飙升以及俄罗斯天然气可能进一步减少供应，今年全球天然气消费将小幅减少，之后数年会缓慢增加。报告说，今年全球天然气使用量预期较2021年水平缩减0.5%；预计到2025年，全球天然气需求量仅比2021年增长1400亿立方米。5、俄罗斯即将对天然气巨头开征暴利税 总价值近200亿美元当地时间7月5日，俄罗斯议会批准对能源巨头俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司征收临时暴利税。随着天然气价格飙升，此举将向俄罗斯国库注入相当于近200亿美元的资金。根据俄罗斯国家杜马周二通过的一项法案，俄气将在9月至11月期间额外支付1.25万亿卢布（约合197.2亿美元）的矿产开采税，即每月4160亿卢布。该法案仍然需要俄罗斯联邦委员会和总统的批准。6、挪威石油行业罢工结束当地时间7月5日晚，在挪威政府的介入下，挪威国家石油公司（Equinor）于当天凌晨开始的罢工结束。据报道，挪威政府通过强制工资委员会对罢工进行了干预，挪威强制性工资委员会是政府可以实施的一项强制性措施，以制止持续的劳资纠纷。7、英国政坛大地震？两位高官同日宣布辞职 矛头直指首相约翰逊随着两位高级官员宣布辞职，英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊再次遭遇严重的政治打击。当地时间周二（7月5日），英国卫生大臣赛义德·贾维德和财政大臣里希·苏纳克相继宣布辞职，并且都将矛头指向了首相约翰逊。贾维德在辞职信中表示，在一系列丑闻之后，他对约翰逊为国家利益执政的能力失去了信心，并表示自己已无法再凭良心在约翰逊政府中任职。贾维德称，许多议员和公众都对约翰逊失去了信心。8、英国首相任命新的财政大臣和卫生大臣当地时间7月5日晚间，英国首相约翰逊宣布任命纳迪姆·扎哈维接替苏纳克为新任财政大臣。扎哈维此前为英国教育大臣。此外，史蒂夫·巴克利被任命为新任卫生大臣，接替贾维德。巴克利此前为约翰逊的幕僚长。9、土耳其称将推动黑海粮食运输通道谈判尽快取得成果当地时间7月5日，土耳其总统埃尔多安表示，土耳其将努力推动与俄罗斯和乌克兰就黑海粮食安全运输通道问题达成协议。埃尔多安说：“我们将努力加强与俄罗斯和乌克兰的谈判，争取在一周或十天内取得成果。”埃尔多安表示，乌克兰危机导致黑海地区运输粮食的通道中断，并引发粮食贸易问题。虽然土耳其并未因全球粮食短缺而遭遇困境，但世界上有些国家，特别是非洲国家正面临粮食危机。目前，土方正与联合国等有关各方一起，努力解决这一问题。俄乌局势1、乌克兰提交加入经合组织的申请乌克兰国家通讯社7月5日报道称，当天乌克兰总理什梅加尔向经济合作与发展组织（经合组织）秘书长马赛厄斯·科尔曼提交了加入经合组织的申请。什梅加尔表示，乌克兰寻求尽快加入该组织，来自经合组织的支持对于乌克兰战后复苏和发展至关重要。2、英国首相约翰逊与乌克兰总统泽连斯基通电话7月5日，英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊与乌克兰总统泽连斯基进行了电话会晤，交流七国集团峰会和北约峰会后的最新进展。约翰逊表示，英国提供的最新军事装备，包括10种火炮装备及弹药，将在未来几天或几周时间内运抵乌克兰。泽连斯基向约翰逊告知了乌克兰国内目前的局势以及俄乌前线的最新进展。双方谈到一天前在瑞士卢加诺举行的乌克兰重建会议时，约翰逊表示欢迎乌克兰的重建计划，并期待英国主办明年的会议。公司新闻1、特斯拉公布太阳能增程拖车原型 可为电动皮卡续航综合Electrek等多家科技媒体报道，特斯拉公司在德国汉诺威举行的IdeenExpo展会上，首次展示了一款太阳能增程拖车原型。特斯拉称其可为旗下电动皮卡CyberTruck提供额外的续航里程。另外，这部拖车还配备了SpaceX的卫星互联网接收器，可以使车主在没有电信信号的地区接通互联网。2、剑指谷歌、苹果等科技巨头 欧洲议会通过两部里程碑法案当地时间7月5日，欧洲议会以压倒性多数分别通过了《数字服务法》和《数字市场法》。一些议员声称，这两部法律的通过具有里程碑意义，将能够约束谷歌、苹果等科技巨头的权力。据悉，这两部法律将于2024年1月前后生效实施。3、大众汽车将关闭位于俄罗斯的某个生产基地德国一家工会周二表示，大众汽车将关闭其在俄罗斯的两个生产基地之一，该公司根据与俄罗斯GAZ集团的合同在那里组装汽车。今年3月，大众汽车宣布，由于西方的制裁，其位于Kaluga和Nizhny Novgorod的工厂的生产将暂停，直到另行通知。4、加拿大将销毁1360万剂过期的阿斯利康新冠疫苗加拿大卫生部当地时间7月5日宣布，1360万剂阿斯利康新冠疫苗在春季过期，将被销毁。据悉，这批即将销毁的1360万剂疫苗占加拿大储存的阿斯利康新冠疫苗总数的一半以上。5、奈飞：《怪奇物语》创造了新的收视纪录当地时间周二，流媒体巨头奈飞表示，最新一季《怪奇物语》的总观看量已经超过了11.5亿小时。这意味着这部科幻剧已成为了奈飞史上最受欢迎的英语电视剧，奈飞平台上另一部播放时间超过10亿小时是去年火爆全球的韩剧《鱿鱼游戏》。6、桥水旗舰基金据称上半年收益率高达32%据媒体援引消息人士报道，得益于市场波动加剧，全球最大对冲基金桥水基金麾下旗舰基金Pure Alpha II在今年上半年实现了32%的高回报率。知情人士称，Pure Alpha II基金6月上涨了4.8%，将其自1991年成立以来的年化回报率提高到了11.4%。7、小摩唱空特斯拉：还要再跌超过40%一直以来，特斯拉都是备受华尔街关注，也争议最多的公司之一。在特斯拉第二季度的交付未达预期之后，尽管该公司在6月份的产量创下了历史最高纪录，但市场看空情绪依然弥漫。最新下调特斯拉目标价的投资银行是摩根大通。该行称，特斯拉股价可能较当前水平下跌超过40%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159831":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"DDG":0.9,"GCmain":0.9,"BND":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"UCO":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"USO":0.9,"IEI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QMmain":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"SCO":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"CLmain":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":598,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9052365284,"gmtCreate":1655128090548,"gmtModify":1676535566336,"author":{"id":"3587038191942835","authorId":"3587038191942835","name":"康康的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a7001836b41194d4d68114ab8afcfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587038191942835","idStr":"3587038191942835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9052365284","repostId":"2243019507","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2243019507","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪海内外最新宏观政策和经济走势，分享来自莫尼塔宏观团队的最新观点。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"钟正生经济分析","id":"70","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86f6d9605fc344e28cd4247a93dcdc2b"},"pubTimestamp":1655095529,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2243019507?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-13 12:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Fed shrinking balance sheet: What's Different This Time?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2243019507","media":"钟正生经济分析","summary":"编者按：2022年5月美国CPI同比达到8.6%，再度超出市场预期，亦更加凸显了美联储加快紧缩的必要性。6月美联储正式开启缩表后，货币市场利率总体上较稳定，但“缩表+加息”对资产价格的叠加冲击依然值得","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Editor's Note:</b>In May 2022, the U.S. CPI reached 8.6% year-on-year, once again exceeding market expectations, and further highlighting the need for the Federal Reserve to accelerate tightening. After the Federal Reserve officially launched a shrinking balance sheet in June, money market interest rates were generally relatively stable, but the superimposed impact of \"shrinking balance sheet + rate hike\" on asset prices is still worthy of vigilance.<b>CORE POINT</b></p><p>On May 4, 2022, the Federal Reserve announced that it would start a shrinking balance sheet on June 1, and plans to reduce its asset holdings by US $47.5 billion per month, which will be increased to US $95 billion three months later. How is this Fed shrinking balance sheet different from the past? How has the impact on the market changed? This article attempts to answer the above questions.</p><p><b>Looking back at the last round of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet, we can find that: 1)</b>Due to the lack of effective reference, the Fed's operations were more cautious in the last round of shrinking balance sheet. The Fed was not in a hurry to reduce its balance sheet on a large scale, and the pace from guiding tightening to shrinking balance sheet was relatively slow;<b>2）</b>In order to avoid sending different policy signals from interest rate cuts at the same time as shrinking balance sheet, and to alleviate the liquidity shortage in financial markets, the Federal Reserve stopped shrinking balance sheet early in August 2019, two months earlier than originally planned.</p><p><b>The macro background during this Fed shrinking balance sheet is different, especially in terms of inflation.</b>Compared to 2017, the unemployment rate in the United States is lower now, but inflation is higher. This determines that the purpose of this Fed shrinking balance sheet is different from the past, and the pace is relatively faster. We estimate that during the 22 months from October 2017 to August 2019, the size of the Fed's balance sheet decreased by approximately 15.7%. According to the Fed's shrinking balance sheet plan this time, the Fed's balance sheet will drop by the same proportion in about 16-17 months (that is, around October 2023).<b>Looking forward, the Federal Reserve may show greater flexibility in this shrinking balance sheet. On one hand</b>The current employment situation in the United States is still relatively strong. If inflationary pressures intensify, the Federal Reserve may accelerate the pace of its shrinking balance sheet, just as it accelerated Taper in December 2021;<b>On the other hand</b>, considering that rate hike and shrinking balance sheet are substitutable to some extent. If inflationary pressures in the United States ease, the Federal Reserve may also slow down the pace of its shrinking balance sheet in order to avoid a \"hard landing\" of the economy.</p><p><b>At present, the balance sheet structure and policy tools of the Federal Reserve have undergone major changes, especially the debt-side reverse repurchase agreement and the scale and proportion of general deposits of the Ministry of Finance have increased significantly, which makes the disturbance of liquidity in the shrinking balance sheet relatively low. One is</b>From the perspective of assets, the proportion of MBS with greater uncertainty in scale changes has declined, which has reduced the uncertainty of shrinking balance sheet.<b>The second is</b>, the scale of reverse repurchase agreements has increased sharply, and short-term interest rates are closer to the lower limit of interest rates, which means that market liquidity is more abundant than before the start of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, providing a thicker cushion for the liquidity shock of the shrinking balance sheet.<b>Third,</b>With the gradual normalization of U.S. fiscal policy, the general deposit scale of the Treasury Department may slowly fall back to pre-epidemic levels in the second half of the year, thereby releasing a certain amount of liquidity to the market and alleviating the impact of shrinking balance sheet.<b>The fourth is</b>, the launch of the standing repurchase facility tool can provide liquidity under certain conditions, stabilize market confidence, and reduce the probability of liquidity shortages.</p><p><b>It should be noted that although market liquidity may not be excessively disturbed in the early stage of the shrinking balance sheet, from the perspective of the impact on asset prices, the impact of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet cannot be underestimated</b>。 Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May, the 10-year U.S. bond yield has once risen to more than 3%. In particular, the real interest rate has returned from-0.90% on March 1 to 0.34% on May 10, which reflects that the market is further taking into account the impact of shrinking balance sheet. The rise in US Treasury yields has become an important catalyst for the adjustment of U.S. stocks.</p><p><b>On May 4, 2022, the Federal Reserve announced the statement of the May FOMC interest rate meeting, announcing that it will start a shrinking balance sheet from June 1, and plans to reduce its holdings of assets by US $47.5 billion per month, and plans to reduce its holdings by US $95 billion per month three months later. assets. This is in line with the results discussed in the minutes of the March meeting, but it does not specify the end point of shrinking balance sheet. It only indicates that the pace of shrinking balance sheet will be slowed down when it is about to reach the \"sufficient level\". How is this Fed shrinking balance sheet different from the past? How has the impact on the market changed? This article attempts to answer the above questions.</b></p><p><b>one</b></p><p><b>Review of the last round of Fed monetary policy normalization</b></p><p>After the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, in response to the economic recession, the Federal Reserve launched a series of unconventional monetary policy tools such as zero interest rate and quantitative easing. As the U.S. economy tends to stabilize and recover, the Federal Reserve officially launched Taper at the end of 2013 and launched a shrinking balance sheet in October 2017. This is also the only shrinking balance sheet operation since the Federal Reserve implemented unconventional monetary policy. Therefore, it is necessary to review the last round of Fed monetary policy normalization.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31c1262b4e94932a9bf15330cfedd44\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The last round of normalization of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy began in May 2013, when then Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a speech that \"if it is found that the U.S. job market continues to improve, the Federal Reserve may begin to gradually slow down purchases at a future meeting. The speed of assets\", sending a Taper signal to the market. However, due to insufficient communication with the market, the financial market has experienced significant fluctuations, known as the \"Taper Tantrum\". In December 2013, the Federal Reserve announced the Taper timetable at its interest rate meeting. From January to October 2014, QE was cut month by month and finally ended. In December 2015, the Federal Reserve launched its first rate hike after the financial crisis, but it \"tasted it\" after only 25BP in rate hike. It was not until December 2016 that the second rate hike began, and since then, it has continuously raised policy interest rates.</p><p><b>Focus on observing shrinking balance sheet operations in the last round of Fed monetary policy normalization.</b>With the deepening of the rate hike process of the Federal Reserve, shrinking balance sheet has also been put on the agenda. Starting in October 2017, the Federal Reserve decided to reduce its holdings of Treasury Bond and MBS at a rate of US $6 billion and US $4 billion per month, and increase it by US $6 billion and US $4 billion every three months in the next 12 months. Increasing at a rate of US dollars. It wasn't until a year later, in October 2018, that the Fed's shrinking balance sheet rate peaked at $50 billion per month ($30 billion Treasury Bond + $20 billion MBS). This may reflect that,<b>Due to the lack of effective reference, the Federal Reserve was more cautious in the last round of shrinking balance sheet. At that time, the Federal Reserve hoped to reduce the impact of liquidity tightening on the financial market through slow and gradual shrinking balance sheet.</b></p><p><b>However, in August 2019, the Federal Reserve stopped shrinking balance sheet early.</b>At the July 2019 interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve announced that it would stop shrinking balance sheet from August of that year, two months earlier than originally planned.<b>We believe that there were two main reasons why the Federal Reserve stopped shrinking balance sheet at that time:</b></p><p><b>First, in order to avoid simultaneous interest rate cuts and shrinking balance sheet, sending out different policy signals.</b>At the interest rate meeting in August 2019, in order to cope with sluggish inflation and the pressure of slowing global growth, the Federal Reserve announced that it would cut the federal funds target rate by 0.25%. As the Federal Reserve has repeatedly pointed out, the federal funds target rate is its main means of adjusting its monetary policy stance. The implication is that shrinking balance sheet and balance sheet expansion are only auxiliary means of its monetary policy. Therefore, when the downward pressure on the economy increases and the policy interest rate needs to be lowered, shrinking balance sheet should \"give way\" to cutting interest rates.</p><p><b>Second, the money market began to experience a shortage of liquidity.</b>With the launch of three rounds of QE after the global financial crisis, the Federal Reserve's interest rate control mechanism has changed from the pre-crisis \"Interest Rate Corridor\" system to the unconventional \"interest rate floor\" system. In the \"interest rate floor\" system, the deposit reserve interest rate (IOR) is the upper limit of interest rate, and the overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ONRRP) operating interest rate is the lower limit of interest rate. When liquidity is abundant, the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) will operate between them. However, since mid-2019, with the continuous reduction of liquidity, the Federal Funds rate has begun to break through the IOR as the upper limit, \"money shortage\" incidents have occurred frequently, and the \"interest rate floor\" system has gradually moved to the verge of failure. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in July 2019 specifically mentioned that the reduction in reserves brought about by shrinking balance sheet led to sharp fluctuations in short-term interest rates, which also indicated that the liquidity shortage in the U.S. money market had begun to occur at that time. In its statement in October 2019, the Federal Reserve stated that in order to ensure sufficient reserves, the Federal Reserve will conduct regular repurchase operations to inject liquidity into the market and reduce money market risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d32bd62c17d452fb86e4fcb303ff0c7\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Although there was a liquidity shortage in the late stage of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, the performance of the U.S. stock market during the entire shrinking balance sheet was still relatively strong and was not significantly impacted.</b>Nearly a year after the last round of shrinking balance sheet began, the U.S. stock market continued its previous upward trend. From the beginning of October 2017 to the end of September 2018, the S&P 500 index rose by 15.2%. Although the stock market experienced a short-term correction afterwards, it was mainly caused by the weakening of fundamentals. The U.S. manufacturing PMI has dropped significantly since the fourth quarter of 2018. Since the beginning of 2019, as the Federal Reserve continues to release \"dovish\" signals, U.S. stocks have also begun to rebound.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/351772ab36f6423fa2db81e5191848ce\" tg-width=\"1023\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>two</b></p><p><b>The background and purpose of this Fed shrinking balance sheet are different</b></p><p>From the perspective of growth and employment, the two major aspects that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy focuses on, compared with the opening of the shrinking balance sheet in October 2017,<b>The macro background during this Fed shrinking balance sheet is different, especially in terms of inflation.</b>Different from the low inflation and low unemployment rate in early 2017, the unemployment rate in the United States is lower but inflation is higher under the background that the labor force participation rate has not yet fully recovered. In March 2022, the U.S. CPI reached 8.5% year-on-year, setting a new high in the past 40 years. Moreover, under the impact of short-term factors such as declining demand for inventory replenishment and a substantial increase in the trade deficit, U.S. GDP fell at an annualized rate of 1.4% in the first quarter of 2022, and the economy began to show signs of stagflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364e02b9aa714b8e8d9f5964b477ea41\" tg-width=\"1047\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The background of high inflation determines that the rhythm of this Fed shrinking balance sheet is different.</b>After then Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke released the Taper signal in May 2013, the Federal Reserve really started Taper at the end of 2013. It was not until October 2014 that the Taper ended. After that, it took more than a year for the Federal Reserve to start its rate hike. From the beginning The time lag between Taper and shrinking balance sheet has reached 46 months, and the US federal benchmark interest rate at the beginning of the shrinking balance sheet has reached 1.25%-1.50%.</p><p><b>However, in response to rising inflationary pressures, the pace of this round of Fed shrinking balance sheet is faster than before.</b>Since the release of the Taper signal in the second half of 2021, the Fed's monetary policy normalization process has continued to accelerate. In this round of normalization of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the time interval between the opening of Taper and the shrinking balance sheet is only about half a year, and the pace of tightening is much faster than before. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's May interest rate meeting stated that it will start a shrinking balance sheet on June 1, and plans to reduce its asset holdings by US $47.5 billion per month, and three months later, it plans to reduce its asset holdings by US $95 billion per month. Not only are the initial shrinking balance sheet size and rhythm much higher than the previous round (US $10 billion/month, increasing by US $10 billion every three months), but the maximum monthly shrinking balance sheet size is also higher than the previous round's US $50 billion per month.<b>Changes in the scale and rhythm of the shrinking balance sheet will cause the current round of the Fed's balance sheet to decline at a faster rate: in the 22 months from October 2017 to August 2019, the size of the Fed's balance sheet decreased by about 700 billion dollars, a decrease of 15.7%. According to the Fed's shrinking balance sheet plan this time, the Fed's balance sheet will drop by the same proportion in about 16-17 months (that is, around October 2023).</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27fc764d380f47d1afacc1a0f0e6f5b3\" tg-width=\"1018\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Looking forward, the Federal Reserve may show greater flexibility in this shrinking balance sheet. On the one hand</b>At present, the employment situation in the United States is still relatively strong, and the unemployment rate and the number of people receiving unemployment benefits are at historically low levels. Therefore, if inflationary pressures in the United States intensify, the Federal Reserve may accelerate the pace of its shrinking balance sheet, just as it accelerated Taper in December 2021;<b>On the other hand</b>Considering that the U.S. economy was affected by \"temporary factors\" such as a decline in inventory investment and a surge in imports, the annualized rate fell by 1.4% in the first quarter. Regardless of whether these are temporary shocks or not, there is still controversy, but the market and the Federal Reserve's concerns about a \"hard landing\" of the US economy are undoubtedly increasing. Moreover, rate hike and shrinking balance sheet are substitutable to some extent, and the Federal Reserve will carefully weigh the effect of the combination boxing. Therefore, if inflationary pressures in the United States ease in the future, the Federal Reserve may also slow down the pace of its shrinking balance sheet to reduce the impact of monetary policy tightening on the economy. This is also in line with the vague statement at the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May that \"it will slow down the pace of shrinking balance sheet when it is about to reach the'sufficient level '\".</p><p><b>three</b></p><p><b>The Fed's balance sheet structure and policy tools are different this time</b></p><p><b>Studying the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet operations is inseparable from the discussion of its balance sheet.</b>From the perspective of assets, the assets of the Federal Reserve are mainly securities assets it holds, that is, various Treasury Bond, MBS, etc. it purchased when expanding its balance sheet, accounting for nearly 95%; From the perspective of liabilities, the Fed's liabilities include cash, bank reserves, deposits from the Ministry of Finance and reverse repurchase agreements. The above four items account for more than 99%, especially bank reserves, which account for more than 40%.</p><p><b>From the asset side, compared with October 2017, the proportion of Treasury Bond held by the Federal Reserve has increased significantly, while the proportion of MBS is relatively low.</b>Among them, the proportion of Treasury Bond in the total assets of the Federal Reserve increased from 55.3% in October 2017 to 64.5% at the end of April, and the current holding scale is about 5.7 trillion US dollars. The proportion of MBS in the total assets of the Federal Reserve dropped from 39.7% to 30.4%, but the scale also exceeded US $2.7 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/deacf9f83fa94863b6749435963e84b0\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Compared with 2017, the current difference on the liability side of the Fed's balance sheet is more obvious, and the scale and proportion of general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements of the Ministry of Finance have increased significantly.</b>At the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet in October 2017, the general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements of the Ministry of Finance in the Federal Reserve's liabilities were US $185.1 billion and US $374.9 billion respectively, accounting for 4.2% and 7.9% of the total liabilities, while bank reserves accounted for more than 50%, which also led to the decline of liabilities in the last round of shrinking balance sheet, mainly through the decline of reserve scale. But up to now, the scale and proportion of general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements of the Ministry of Finance have increased significantly. Among them, the scale of general deposits of the Ministry of Finance has reached 957.4 billion US dollars, accounting for 10.8%, and the scale of reverse repurchase agreements has reached 2.09 trillion US dollars, accounting for 23.5%. The sum of the two is close to the reserve scale.</p><p><b>As the current balance sheet structure and policy tools of the Federal Reserve have undergone major changes, shrinking balance sheet's disturbance to liquidity may be relatively low.</b></p><p><b>One is</b>，<b>From the perspective of assets, the decline in the proportion of MBS reduces the uncertainty of shrinking balance sheet.</b>For Treasury Bond, because its maturity date and maturity scale are known, the pace of Treasury Bond's reduction is basically certain. However, there may be some uncertainties in the process of MBS reduction. This mainly stems from: 1) the possibility of prepayment exists in MBS, where borrowers can choose to repay any additional mortgage principal at any time when they sell their home or refinance their mortgage; 2) From the perspective of operational process, the time interval between MBS reinvestment is relatively long, from the time when the principal is received (resulting in a decrease in holdings) to the corresponding new MBS being added to the balance sheet (resulting in an increase in holdings) The time interval can be up to three months. In the last round of shrinking balance sheet, MBS accounted for a relatively high proportion, and the reduction scale was relatively higher, reaching 2/3 of Treasury Bond's reduction scale. However, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May this year showed that in this round of shrinking balance sheet, the Federal Reserve's reduction of holdings is up to US $60 billion in Treasury Bond and US $35 billion in MBS per month. MBS accounts for a lower proportion of the reduction, which means that this round of shrinking balance sheet Uncertainty is relatively lower.</p><p><b>Second, from the perspective of debt, the increase in the scale of reverse repurchase agreements means that the liquidity in the market is relatively abundant, which can alleviate the liquidity impact caused by the shrinking balance sheet.</b>The Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase tool is similar to that of my country's central bank's positive repurchase. Both of them sell securities to financial institutions and agree to repurchase them after a period of time to achieve the purpose of recovering excess liquidity in the market. Therefore, in the period of excess liquidity and low market interest rate, non-bank financial institutions will choose to invest their funds in the reverse repurchase agreement of the Federal Reserve in order to obtain stable income. The interest rate of the reverse repurchase agreement thus becomes the lower limit of the Interest Rate Corridor of the Federal Reserve under the sufficient reserve system, and the use of reverse repurchase tools also reflects the abundance of market liquidity to a certain extent.</p><p><b>Why is the current proportion of reverse repurchase agreements much higher than at the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet? First</b>For banks, there is a cost to hold reserves. After the scale of reserves held by banks increases, the scale of their overall balance sheet will also expand, which will bring higher capital regulatory requirements. Therefore, banks' willingness to hold reserves will not increase indefinitely.<b>Next</b>, the bank's income from holding reserves comes from arbitrage transactions, that is, borrowing funds from non-bank financial institutions at the market repo rate (between the ON RRP rate and the deposit reserve rate), and depositing this part of the funds into the Federal Reserve, get interest calculated at the deposit reserve rate. Therefore, the spread between the deposit reserve rate and the ON RRP rate measures the earnings of the carry trade. Before and after the last round of shrinking balance sheet, this spread remained at 25BP, but at present it is only 10BP, which undoubtedly reduced the arbitrage income of banks, thus limiting their willingness to borrow funds from non-bank financial institutions. Therefore, a large amount of liquidity has accumulated in non-bank financial institutions, and non-bank financial institutions can only directly deposit this part of the funds into the Federal Reserve, resulting in a significant increase in the proportion of reverse repurchase agreements at present.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4cda87c13544d67a378bbe07ef52cc1\" tg-width=\"1020\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The current relative position of the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) also shows that the current liquidity is more abundant than at the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet.</b>As mentioned earlier, the reserve rate (IOR) and the overnight reverse repurchase rate (ON RRP) are the upper and lower limits of the Federal Funds rate, respectively. We calculated the difference between IOR and EFFR and the difference between EFFR and ON RRP interest rate, respectively, representing the distance between short-term interest rates and the upper and lower bounds of interest rates. It can be found that before and after the start of the last round of Fed shrinking balance sheet, the difference between IOR and EFFR was smaller, which means that the short-term interest rate was closer to the upper limit at that time; At present, the difference between EFFR and ON RRP interest rates is smaller, and the short-term interest rate is closer to the lower limit, which reflects that the current liquidity is more abundant than at the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db414e1f093d495f92afe454367af548\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, the liabilities of the Fed's balance sheet were mostly bank reserves. However, the current increase in the scale of reverse repurchase agreements and the fact that the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) is closer to the lower limit of interest rates all indicate that both banks and non-bank financial institutions The liquidity of bank financial institutions is more abundant than at the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet. Therefore, when the Fed recovers liquidity through the shrinking balance sheet, the size of bonds held on the asset side of its balance sheet decreases; For the liability side, the corresponding reduction can be achieved through the reduction in the scale of reverse repurchase agreements (rather than through the reduction in the scale of reserves like the last round of shrinking balance sheet), thereby reducing the impact of shrinking balance sheet on reserves and market liquidity. impact.</p><p><b>Third, the decline in the general deposit scale of the Ministry of Finance will also release certain liquidity</b>。 The high increase in the general deposit scale of the Ministry of Finance is another important feature of this shrinking balance sheet. Similar to the role of my country's fiscal deposits, changes in general deposits of the U.S. Treasury will also disturb market liquidity. Before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, although the size of the general deposits (TGA) of the Ministry of Finance in the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve fluctuated to some extent, the total size basically remained below 400 billion US dollars; After the outbreak of the epidemic, the U.S. Treasury Department raised a large amount of financing through the issuance of Treasury Bond, and the scale of TGA rose rapidly, once reaching nearly US $1.8 trillion. In the first quarter of 2021, with the introduction of the $1.9 trillion bailout bill, the scale of TGA declined rapidly. In mid-2021, the U.S. government debt hit the upper limit, and it was difficult for the Treasury Department to continue to raise funds through bond issuance. The balance of TGA accounts continued to decline, once falling to less than US $60 billion, releasing a large amount of liquidity to the market in the process. However, after the U.S. government debt ceiling was raised again in December 2021, the Treasury Department quickly rebuilt its cash reserves by issuing Treasury Bond. At the end of April, the size of the TGA account exceeded US $900 billion.<b>Looking forward, U.S. fiscal policy will gradually normalize, and the general deposit scale of the Treasury Department may slowly fall back to pre-epidemic levels in the second half of the year, which will release a certain amount of liquidity to the market and alleviate the liquidity impact brought about by the shrinking balance sheet.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e1838d298ba42a98178be4723b1b6f8\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Fourth, the launch of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) tool has also reduced the probability of liquidity shortages.</b>Since mid-2019, there have been signs of liquidity shortage in the U.S. financial market, and spot interest rates have continued to exceed the upper limit of the federal funds target rate. In September 2019, under the influence of factors such as tax payment and Treasury Bond issuance, EFFR was once 20BP higher than the deposit reserve interest rate; In March 2020, a \"money shortage\" broke out again in the U.S. financial market. The three-month FRA/OIS spread, which represents future capital borrowing costs, once rose to the highest point since 2008, and the New York Fed's repurchase operations were continuously oversubscribed. Frequent liquidity shortages have attracted the attention of the Federal Reserve: In July 2021, in order to solve possible liquidity shortages during the normalization of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve launched the SRF tool \"in advance\". The facility allows qualified dealers to borrow dollars from the Federal Reserve with Treasury Bond, ABS or MBS as collateral at a certain interest rate (typically set as the cap on the federal funds target rate).</p><p><b>The SRF tool works mainly through two channels: First,</b>, as mentioned earlier, the reserve rate (IOR) will only function as an interest rate ceiling if there is ample liquidity. When liquidity begins to tighten, some financial institutions are willing to borrow funds from the market at a level higher than the IOR, causing short-term interest rates to break through the IOR, which is the interest rate ceiling. Simply put, the function of the SRF tool is to release liquidity to the market at a certain interest rate, thereby reducing the upward pressure on interest rates, just as the Federal Reserve lowered short-term interest rates through repurchase operations in September 2019 before the SRF tool was launched.<b>The second is</b>, the launch of the SRF tool has enhanced the market's confidence in the stability of short-term interest rates, thereby reducing the possibility of large fluctuations in market interest rates. Therefore, this tool can guarantee that the spot rate runs within the range of the target federal funds rate.</p><p><b>In addition, the usage of SRF instruments is also an important window to observe the liquidity situation of financial markets</b>: When the liquidity of the financial market can meet the actual demand, financial institutions can smoothly raise funds through the market, and the use of SRF instruments should be relatively low; When there is a shortage of liquidity in the financial market, financial institutions will turn to the Federal Reserve for liquidity support, and the use of SRF tools will increase accordingly.</p><p><b>four</b></p><p><b>brief summary</b></p><p><b>Generally speaking, compared with the shrinking balance sheet that started in 2017, the intensification of inflationary pressure may lead to a faster pace of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet. However, the uncertainty of inflation trends and the risk of a \"hard landing\" of the US economy also make the Fed's subsequent shrinking balance sheet more flexible. At the same time, the Federal Reserve also needs to carefully weigh the camera to observe the effect of rate hike and shrinking balance sheet's \"combination boxing\". The more important difference is that from the perspective of the scale of reverse repurchase agreements, the current liquidity in the U.S. financial market is already excessively abundant. Coupled with the possible decline in the general deposit scale of the Treasury Department and the early launch of SRF tools, this Fed shrinking balance sheet has an impact on the market. The impact of liquidity may not be as good as before.</b></p><p><b>Looking back, the time window for the end of the shrinking balance sheet may be between the end of the Fed's current rate hike and the next interest rate cut.</b>The Federal Reserve has repeatedly stated in previous balance sheet operations that the federal funds target rate is its main means to adjust its monetary policy stance. The implication is that shrinking balance sheet and balance sheet expansion are only auxiliary means of its monetary policy. According to data displayed by the CME FedWatch Tool, the current round of rate hike by the Federal Reserve may end in mid-2023. Once the downward pressure on the U.S. economy increases, the Federal Reserve will no longer tighten or even turn to easing again. By then, in order to avoid different policy signals from shrinking balance sheet and interest rate cuts, and in order to maintain the main position of interest rate means in monetary policy, there is a high probability that shrinking balance sheet will \"die down\" by then.</p><p><b>It should be noted that although market liquidity may not be excessively disturbed in the initial stage of the shrinking balance sheet, asset prices may still fluctuate greatly.</b>Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in early May announced that a shrinking balance sheet was about to begin, the 10-year U.S. bond yield once rose to more than 3%, especially the real interest rate of the 10-year U.S. bond soared from 0.07% on May 4 to May 10. 0.34% (while the real interest rate of the 10-year U.S. bond on March 1 was only-0.90%), which reflects that the market is further taking into account the impact of shrinking balance sheet. In the same period,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">The US Dollar Index</a>It fluctuated at a high level above 103, causing the exchange rates of most non-US currencies to plummet. U.S. stocks also experienced a significant correction, with the S&P 500 index once falling below the key point of 4,000. Therefore,<b>From the perspective of the impact on asset prices, the impact of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet cannot be underestimated.</b></p><p><b>Risk warning</b>: International geopolitical conflicts are uncertain, inflationary pressure in the United States exceeds expectations, downward pressure on the U.S. economy exceeds expectations, and the Federal Reserve's policy tightening exceeds expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed shrinking balance sheet: What's Different This Time?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed shrinking balance sheet: What's Different This Time?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/70\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/86f6d9605fc344e28cd4247a93dcdc2b);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">钟正生经济分析 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-13 12:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Editor's Note:</b>In May 2022, the U.S. CPI reached 8.6% year-on-year, once again exceeding market expectations, and further highlighting the need for the Federal Reserve to accelerate tightening. After the Federal Reserve officially launched a shrinking balance sheet in June, money market interest rates were generally relatively stable, but the superimposed impact of \"shrinking balance sheet + rate hike\" on asset prices is still worthy of vigilance.<b>CORE POINT</b></p><p>On May 4, 2022, the Federal Reserve announced that it would start a shrinking balance sheet on June 1, and plans to reduce its asset holdings by US $47.5 billion per month, which will be increased to US $95 billion three months later. How is this Fed shrinking balance sheet different from the past? How has the impact on the market changed? This article attempts to answer the above questions.</p><p><b>Looking back at the last round of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet, we can find that: 1)</b>Due to the lack of effective reference, the Fed's operations were more cautious in the last round of shrinking balance sheet. The Fed was not in a hurry to reduce its balance sheet on a large scale, and the pace from guiding tightening to shrinking balance sheet was relatively slow;<b>2）</b>In order to avoid sending different policy signals from interest rate cuts at the same time as shrinking balance sheet, and to alleviate the liquidity shortage in financial markets, the Federal Reserve stopped shrinking balance sheet early in August 2019, two months earlier than originally planned.</p><p><b>The macro background during this Fed shrinking balance sheet is different, especially in terms of inflation.</b>Compared to 2017, the unemployment rate in the United States is lower now, but inflation is higher. This determines that the purpose of this Fed shrinking balance sheet is different from the past, and the pace is relatively faster. We estimate that during the 22 months from October 2017 to August 2019, the size of the Fed's balance sheet decreased by approximately 15.7%. According to the Fed's shrinking balance sheet plan this time, the Fed's balance sheet will drop by the same proportion in about 16-17 months (that is, around October 2023).<b>Looking forward, the Federal Reserve may show greater flexibility in this shrinking balance sheet. On one hand</b>The current employment situation in the United States is still relatively strong. If inflationary pressures intensify, the Federal Reserve may accelerate the pace of its shrinking balance sheet, just as it accelerated Taper in December 2021;<b>On the other hand</b>, considering that rate hike and shrinking balance sheet are substitutable to some extent. If inflationary pressures in the United States ease, the Federal Reserve may also slow down the pace of its shrinking balance sheet in order to avoid a \"hard landing\" of the economy.</p><p><b>At present, the balance sheet structure and policy tools of the Federal Reserve have undergone major changes, especially the debt-side reverse repurchase agreement and the scale and proportion of general deposits of the Ministry of Finance have increased significantly, which makes the disturbance of liquidity in the shrinking balance sheet relatively low. One is</b>From the perspective of assets, the proportion of MBS with greater uncertainty in scale changes has declined, which has reduced the uncertainty of shrinking balance sheet.<b>The second is</b>, the scale of reverse repurchase agreements has increased sharply, and short-term interest rates are closer to the lower limit of interest rates, which means that market liquidity is more abundant than before the start of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, providing a thicker cushion for the liquidity shock of the shrinking balance sheet.<b>Third,</b>With the gradual normalization of U.S. fiscal policy, the general deposit scale of the Treasury Department may slowly fall back to pre-epidemic levels in the second half of the year, thereby releasing a certain amount of liquidity to the market and alleviating the impact of shrinking balance sheet.<b>The fourth is</b>, the launch of the standing repurchase facility tool can provide liquidity under certain conditions, stabilize market confidence, and reduce the probability of liquidity shortages.</p><p><b>It should be noted that although market liquidity may not be excessively disturbed in the early stage of the shrinking balance sheet, from the perspective of the impact on asset prices, the impact of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet cannot be underestimated</b>。 Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May, the 10-year U.S. bond yield has once risen to more than 3%. In particular, the real interest rate has returned from-0.90% on March 1 to 0.34% on May 10, which reflects that the market is further taking into account the impact of shrinking balance sheet. The rise in US Treasury yields has become an important catalyst for the adjustment of U.S. stocks.</p><p><b>On May 4, 2022, the Federal Reserve announced the statement of the May FOMC interest rate meeting, announcing that it will start a shrinking balance sheet from June 1, and plans to reduce its holdings of assets by US $47.5 billion per month, and plans to reduce its holdings by US $95 billion per month three months later. assets. This is in line with the results discussed in the minutes of the March meeting, but it does not specify the end point of shrinking balance sheet. It only indicates that the pace of shrinking balance sheet will be slowed down when it is about to reach the \"sufficient level\". How is this Fed shrinking balance sheet different from the past? How has the impact on the market changed? This article attempts to answer the above questions.</b></p><p><b>one</b></p><p><b>Review of the last round of Fed monetary policy normalization</b></p><p>After the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, in response to the economic recession, the Federal Reserve launched a series of unconventional monetary policy tools such as zero interest rate and quantitative easing. As the U.S. economy tends to stabilize and recover, the Federal Reserve officially launched Taper at the end of 2013 and launched a shrinking balance sheet in October 2017. This is also the only shrinking balance sheet operation since the Federal Reserve implemented unconventional monetary policy. Therefore, it is necessary to review the last round of Fed monetary policy normalization.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31c1262b4e94932a9bf15330cfedd44\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The last round of normalization of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy began in May 2013, when then Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a speech that \"if it is found that the U.S. job market continues to improve, the Federal Reserve may begin to gradually slow down purchases at a future meeting. The speed of assets\", sending a Taper signal to the market. However, due to insufficient communication with the market, the financial market has experienced significant fluctuations, known as the \"Taper Tantrum\". In December 2013, the Federal Reserve announced the Taper timetable at its interest rate meeting. From January to October 2014, QE was cut month by month and finally ended. In December 2015, the Federal Reserve launched its first rate hike after the financial crisis, but it \"tasted it\" after only 25BP in rate hike. It was not until December 2016 that the second rate hike began, and since then, it has continuously raised policy interest rates.</p><p><b>Focus on observing shrinking balance sheet operations in the last round of Fed monetary policy normalization.</b>With the deepening of the rate hike process of the Federal Reserve, shrinking balance sheet has also been put on the agenda. Starting in October 2017, the Federal Reserve decided to reduce its holdings of Treasury Bond and MBS at a rate of US $6 billion and US $4 billion per month, and increase it by US $6 billion and US $4 billion every three months in the next 12 months. Increasing at a rate of US dollars. It wasn't until a year later, in October 2018, that the Fed's shrinking balance sheet rate peaked at $50 billion per month ($30 billion Treasury Bond + $20 billion MBS). This may reflect that,<b>Due to the lack of effective reference, the Federal Reserve was more cautious in the last round of shrinking balance sheet. At that time, the Federal Reserve hoped to reduce the impact of liquidity tightening on the financial market through slow and gradual shrinking balance sheet.</b></p><p><b>However, in August 2019, the Federal Reserve stopped shrinking balance sheet early.</b>At the July 2019 interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve announced that it would stop shrinking balance sheet from August of that year, two months earlier than originally planned.<b>We believe that there were two main reasons why the Federal Reserve stopped shrinking balance sheet at that time:</b></p><p><b>First, in order to avoid simultaneous interest rate cuts and shrinking balance sheet, sending out different policy signals.</b>At the interest rate meeting in August 2019, in order to cope with sluggish inflation and the pressure of slowing global growth, the Federal Reserve announced that it would cut the federal funds target rate by 0.25%. As the Federal Reserve has repeatedly pointed out, the federal funds target rate is its main means of adjusting its monetary policy stance. The implication is that shrinking balance sheet and balance sheet expansion are only auxiliary means of its monetary policy. Therefore, when the downward pressure on the economy increases and the policy interest rate needs to be lowered, shrinking balance sheet should \"give way\" to cutting interest rates.</p><p><b>Second, the money market began to experience a shortage of liquidity.</b>With the launch of three rounds of QE after the global financial crisis, the Federal Reserve's interest rate control mechanism has changed from the pre-crisis \"Interest Rate Corridor\" system to the unconventional \"interest rate floor\" system. In the \"interest rate floor\" system, the deposit reserve interest rate (IOR) is the upper limit of interest rate, and the overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ONRRP) operating interest rate is the lower limit of interest rate. When liquidity is abundant, the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) will operate between them. However, since mid-2019, with the continuous reduction of liquidity, the Federal Funds rate has begun to break through the IOR as the upper limit, \"money shortage\" incidents have occurred frequently, and the \"interest rate floor\" system has gradually moved to the verge of failure. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in July 2019 specifically mentioned that the reduction in reserves brought about by shrinking balance sheet led to sharp fluctuations in short-term interest rates, which also indicated that the liquidity shortage in the U.S. money market had begun to occur at that time. In its statement in October 2019, the Federal Reserve stated that in order to ensure sufficient reserves, the Federal Reserve will conduct regular repurchase operations to inject liquidity into the market and reduce money market risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d32bd62c17d452fb86e4fcb303ff0c7\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Although there was a liquidity shortage in the late stage of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, the performance of the U.S. stock market during the entire shrinking balance sheet was still relatively strong and was not significantly impacted.</b>Nearly a year after the last round of shrinking balance sheet began, the U.S. stock market continued its previous upward trend. From the beginning of October 2017 to the end of September 2018, the S&P 500 index rose by 15.2%. Although the stock market experienced a short-term correction afterwards, it was mainly caused by the weakening of fundamentals. The U.S. manufacturing PMI has dropped significantly since the fourth quarter of 2018. Since the beginning of 2019, as the Federal Reserve continues to release \"dovish\" signals, U.S. stocks have also begun to rebound.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/351772ab36f6423fa2db81e5191848ce\" tg-width=\"1023\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>two</b></p><p><b>The background and purpose of this Fed shrinking balance sheet are different</b></p><p>From the perspective of growth and employment, the two major aspects that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy focuses on, compared with the opening of the shrinking balance sheet in October 2017,<b>The macro background during this Fed shrinking balance sheet is different, especially in terms of inflation.</b>Different from the low inflation and low unemployment rate in early 2017, the unemployment rate in the United States is lower but inflation is higher under the background that the labor force participation rate has not yet fully recovered. In March 2022, the U.S. CPI reached 8.5% year-on-year, setting a new high in the past 40 years. Moreover, under the impact of short-term factors such as declining demand for inventory replenishment and a substantial increase in the trade deficit, U.S. GDP fell at an annualized rate of 1.4% in the first quarter of 2022, and the economy began to show signs of stagflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364e02b9aa714b8e8d9f5964b477ea41\" tg-width=\"1047\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The background of high inflation determines that the rhythm of this Fed shrinking balance sheet is different.</b>After then Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke released the Taper signal in May 2013, the Federal Reserve really started Taper at the end of 2013. It was not until October 2014 that the Taper ended. After that, it took more than a year for the Federal Reserve to start its rate hike. From the beginning The time lag between Taper and shrinking balance sheet has reached 46 months, and the US federal benchmark interest rate at the beginning of the shrinking balance sheet has reached 1.25%-1.50%.</p><p><b>However, in response to rising inflationary pressures, the pace of this round of Fed shrinking balance sheet is faster than before.</b>Since the release of the Taper signal in the second half of 2021, the Fed's monetary policy normalization process has continued to accelerate. In this round of normalization of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the time interval between the opening of Taper and the shrinking balance sheet is only about half a year, and the pace of tightening is much faster than before. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's May interest rate meeting stated that it will start a shrinking balance sheet on June 1, and plans to reduce its asset holdings by US $47.5 billion per month, and three months later, it plans to reduce its asset holdings by US $95 billion per month. Not only are the initial shrinking balance sheet size and rhythm much higher than the previous round (US $10 billion/month, increasing by US $10 billion every three months), but the maximum monthly shrinking balance sheet size is also higher than the previous round's US $50 billion per month.<b>Changes in the scale and rhythm of the shrinking balance sheet will cause the current round of the Fed's balance sheet to decline at a faster rate: in the 22 months from October 2017 to August 2019, the size of the Fed's balance sheet decreased by about 700 billion dollars, a decrease of 15.7%. According to the Fed's shrinking balance sheet plan this time, the Fed's balance sheet will drop by the same proportion in about 16-17 months (that is, around October 2023).</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27fc764d380f47d1afacc1a0f0e6f5b3\" tg-width=\"1018\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Looking forward, the Federal Reserve may show greater flexibility in this shrinking balance sheet. On the one hand</b>At present, the employment situation in the United States is still relatively strong, and the unemployment rate and the number of people receiving unemployment benefits are at historically low levels. Therefore, if inflationary pressures in the United States intensify, the Federal Reserve may accelerate the pace of its shrinking balance sheet, just as it accelerated Taper in December 2021;<b>On the other hand</b>Considering that the U.S. economy was affected by \"temporary factors\" such as a decline in inventory investment and a surge in imports, the annualized rate fell by 1.4% in the first quarter. Regardless of whether these are temporary shocks or not, there is still controversy, but the market and the Federal Reserve's concerns about a \"hard landing\" of the US economy are undoubtedly increasing. Moreover, rate hike and shrinking balance sheet are substitutable to some extent, and the Federal Reserve will carefully weigh the effect of the combination boxing. Therefore, if inflationary pressures in the United States ease in the future, the Federal Reserve may also slow down the pace of its shrinking balance sheet to reduce the impact of monetary policy tightening on the economy. This is also in line with the vague statement at the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May that \"it will slow down the pace of shrinking balance sheet when it is about to reach the'sufficient level '\".</p><p><b>three</b></p><p><b>The Fed's balance sheet structure and policy tools are different this time</b></p><p><b>Studying the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet operations is inseparable from the discussion of its balance sheet.</b>From the perspective of assets, the assets of the Federal Reserve are mainly securities assets it holds, that is, various Treasury Bond, MBS, etc. it purchased when expanding its balance sheet, accounting for nearly 95%; From the perspective of liabilities, the Fed's liabilities include cash, bank reserves, deposits from the Ministry of Finance and reverse repurchase agreements. The above four items account for more than 99%, especially bank reserves, which account for more than 40%.</p><p><b>From the asset side, compared with October 2017, the proportion of Treasury Bond held by the Federal Reserve has increased significantly, while the proportion of MBS is relatively low.</b>Among them, the proportion of Treasury Bond in the total assets of the Federal Reserve increased from 55.3% in October 2017 to 64.5% at the end of April, and the current holding scale is about 5.7 trillion US dollars. The proportion of MBS in the total assets of the Federal Reserve dropped from 39.7% to 30.4%, but the scale also exceeded US $2.7 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/deacf9f83fa94863b6749435963e84b0\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Compared with 2017, the current difference on the liability side of the Fed's balance sheet is more obvious, and the scale and proportion of general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements of the Ministry of Finance have increased significantly.</b>At the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet in October 2017, the general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements of the Ministry of Finance in the Federal Reserve's liabilities were US $185.1 billion and US $374.9 billion respectively, accounting for 4.2% and 7.9% of the total liabilities, while bank reserves accounted for more than 50%, which also led to the decline of liabilities in the last round of shrinking balance sheet, mainly through the decline of reserve scale. But up to now, the scale and proportion of general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements of the Ministry of Finance have increased significantly. Among them, the scale of general deposits of the Ministry of Finance has reached 957.4 billion US dollars, accounting for 10.8%, and the scale of reverse repurchase agreements has reached 2.09 trillion US dollars, accounting for 23.5%. The sum of the two is close to the reserve scale.</p><p><b>As the current balance sheet structure and policy tools of the Federal Reserve have undergone major changes, shrinking balance sheet's disturbance to liquidity may be relatively low.</b></p><p><b>One is</b>，<b>From the perspective of assets, the decline in the proportion of MBS reduces the uncertainty of shrinking balance sheet.</b>For Treasury Bond, because its maturity date and maturity scale are known, the pace of Treasury Bond's reduction is basically certain. However, there may be some uncertainties in the process of MBS reduction. This mainly stems from: 1) the possibility of prepayment exists in MBS, where borrowers can choose to repay any additional mortgage principal at any time when they sell their home or refinance their mortgage; 2) From the perspective of operational process, the time interval between MBS reinvestment is relatively long, from the time when the principal is received (resulting in a decrease in holdings) to the corresponding new MBS being added to the balance sheet (resulting in an increase in holdings) The time interval can be up to three months. In the last round of shrinking balance sheet, MBS accounted for a relatively high proportion, and the reduction scale was relatively higher, reaching 2/3 of Treasury Bond's reduction scale. However, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May this year showed that in this round of shrinking balance sheet, the Federal Reserve's reduction of holdings is up to US $60 billion in Treasury Bond and US $35 billion in MBS per month. MBS accounts for a lower proportion of the reduction, which means that this round of shrinking balance sheet Uncertainty is relatively lower.</p><p><b>Second, from the perspective of debt, the increase in the scale of reverse repurchase agreements means that the liquidity in the market is relatively abundant, which can alleviate the liquidity impact caused by the shrinking balance sheet.</b>The Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase tool is similar to that of my country's central bank's positive repurchase. Both of them sell securities to financial institutions and agree to repurchase them after a period of time to achieve the purpose of recovering excess liquidity in the market. Therefore, in the period of excess liquidity and low market interest rate, non-bank financial institutions will choose to invest their funds in the reverse repurchase agreement of the Federal Reserve in order to obtain stable income. The interest rate of the reverse repurchase agreement thus becomes the lower limit of the Interest Rate Corridor of the Federal Reserve under the sufficient reserve system, and the use of reverse repurchase tools also reflects the abundance of market liquidity to a certain extent.</p><p><b>Why is the current proportion of reverse repurchase agreements much higher than at the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet? First</b>For banks, there is a cost to hold reserves. After the scale of reserves held by banks increases, the scale of their overall balance sheet will also expand, which will bring higher capital regulatory requirements. Therefore, banks' willingness to hold reserves will not increase indefinitely.<b>Next</b>, the bank's income from holding reserves comes from arbitrage transactions, that is, borrowing funds from non-bank financial institutions at the market repo rate (between the ON RRP rate and the deposit reserve rate), and depositing this part of the funds into the Federal Reserve, get interest calculated at the deposit reserve rate. Therefore, the spread between the deposit reserve rate and the ON RRP rate measures the earnings of the carry trade. Before and after the last round of shrinking balance sheet, this spread remained at 25BP, but at present it is only 10BP, which undoubtedly reduced the arbitrage income of banks, thus limiting their willingness to borrow funds from non-bank financial institutions. Therefore, a large amount of liquidity has accumulated in non-bank financial institutions, and non-bank financial institutions can only directly deposit this part of the funds into the Federal Reserve, resulting in a significant increase in the proportion of reverse repurchase agreements at present.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4cda87c13544d67a378bbe07ef52cc1\" tg-width=\"1020\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The current relative position of the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) also shows that the current liquidity is more abundant than at the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet.</b>As mentioned earlier, the reserve rate (IOR) and the overnight reverse repurchase rate (ON RRP) are the upper and lower limits of the Federal Funds rate, respectively. We calculated the difference between IOR and EFFR and the difference between EFFR and ON RRP interest rate, respectively, representing the distance between short-term interest rates and the upper and lower bounds of interest rates. It can be found that before and after the start of the last round of Fed shrinking balance sheet, the difference between IOR and EFFR was smaller, which means that the short-term interest rate was closer to the upper limit at that time; At present, the difference between EFFR and ON RRP interest rates is smaller, and the short-term interest rate is closer to the lower limit, which reflects that the current liquidity is more abundant than at the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db414e1f093d495f92afe454367af548\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, the liabilities of the Fed's balance sheet were mostly bank reserves. However, the current increase in the scale of reverse repurchase agreements and the fact that the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) is closer to the lower limit of interest rates all indicate that both banks and non-bank financial institutions The liquidity of bank financial institutions is more abundant than at the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet. Therefore, when the Fed recovers liquidity through the shrinking balance sheet, the size of bonds held on the asset side of its balance sheet decreases; For the liability side, the corresponding reduction can be achieved through the reduction in the scale of reverse repurchase agreements (rather than through the reduction in the scale of reserves like the last round of shrinking balance sheet), thereby reducing the impact of shrinking balance sheet on reserves and market liquidity. impact.</p><p><b>Third, the decline in the general deposit scale of the Ministry of Finance will also release certain liquidity</b>。 The high increase in the general deposit scale of the Ministry of Finance is another important feature of this shrinking balance sheet. Similar to the role of my country's fiscal deposits, changes in general deposits of the U.S. Treasury will also disturb market liquidity. Before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, although the size of the general deposits (TGA) of the Ministry of Finance in the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve fluctuated to some extent, the total size basically remained below 400 billion US dollars; After the outbreak of the epidemic, the U.S. Treasury Department raised a large amount of financing through the issuance of Treasury Bond, and the scale of TGA rose rapidly, once reaching nearly US $1.8 trillion. In the first quarter of 2021, with the introduction of the $1.9 trillion bailout bill, the scale of TGA declined rapidly. In mid-2021, the U.S. government debt hit the upper limit, and it was difficult for the Treasury Department to continue to raise funds through bond issuance. The balance of TGA accounts continued to decline, once falling to less than US $60 billion, releasing a large amount of liquidity to the market in the process. However, after the U.S. government debt ceiling was raised again in December 2021, the Treasury Department quickly rebuilt its cash reserves by issuing Treasury Bond. At the end of April, the size of the TGA account exceeded US $900 billion.<b>Looking forward, U.S. fiscal policy will gradually normalize, and the general deposit scale of the Treasury Department may slowly fall back to pre-epidemic levels in the second half of the year, which will release a certain amount of liquidity to the market and alleviate the liquidity impact brought about by the shrinking balance sheet.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e1838d298ba42a98178be4723b1b6f8\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Fourth, the launch of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) tool has also reduced the probability of liquidity shortages.</b>Since mid-2019, there have been signs of liquidity shortage in the U.S. financial market, and spot interest rates have continued to exceed the upper limit of the federal funds target rate. In September 2019, under the influence of factors such as tax payment and Treasury Bond issuance, EFFR was once 20BP higher than the deposit reserve interest rate; In March 2020, a \"money shortage\" broke out again in the U.S. financial market. The three-month FRA/OIS spread, which represents future capital borrowing costs, once rose to the highest point since 2008, and the New York Fed's repurchase operations were continuously oversubscribed. Frequent liquidity shortages have attracted the attention of the Federal Reserve: In July 2021, in order to solve possible liquidity shortages during the normalization of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve launched the SRF tool \"in advance\". The facility allows qualified dealers to borrow dollars from the Federal Reserve with Treasury Bond, ABS or MBS as collateral at a certain interest rate (typically set as the cap on the federal funds target rate).</p><p><b>The SRF tool works mainly through two channels: First,</b>, as mentioned earlier, the reserve rate (IOR) will only function as an interest rate ceiling if there is ample liquidity. When liquidity begins to tighten, some financial institutions are willing to borrow funds from the market at a level higher than the IOR, causing short-term interest rates to break through the IOR, which is the interest rate ceiling. Simply put, the function of the SRF tool is to release liquidity to the market at a certain interest rate, thereby reducing the upward pressure on interest rates, just as the Federal Reserve lowered short-term interest rates through repurchase operations in September 2019 before the SRF tool was launched.<b>The second is</b>, the launch of the SRF tool has enhanced the market's confidence in the stability of short-term interest rates, thereby reducing the possibility of large fluctuations in market interest rates. Therefore, this tool can guarantee that the spot rate runs within the range of the target federal funds rate.</p><p><b>In addition, the usage of SRF instruments is also an important window to observe the liquidity situation of financial markets</b>: When the liquidity of the financial market can meet the actual demand, financial institutions can smoothly raise funds through the market, and the use of SRF instruments should be relatively low; When there is a shortage of liquidity in the financial market, financial institutions will turn to the Federal Reserve for liquidity support, and the use of SRF tools will increase accordingly.</p><p><b>four</b></p><p><b>brief summary</b></p><p><b>Generally speaking, compared with the shrinking balance sheet that started in 2017, the intensification of inflationary pressure may lead to a faster pace of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet. However, the uncertainty of inflation trends and the risk of a \"hard landing\" of the US economy also make the Fed's subsequent shrinking balance sheet more flexible. At the same time, the Federal Reserve also needs to carefully weigh the camera to observe the effect of rate hike and shrinking balance sheet's \"combination boxing\". The more important difference is that from the perspective of the scale of reverse repurchase agreements, the current liquidity in the U.S. financial market is already excessively abundant. Coupled with the possible decline in the general deposit scale of the Treasury Department and the early launch of SRF tools, this Fed shrinking balance sheet has an impact on the market. The impact of liquidity may not be as good as before.</b></p><p><b>Looking back, the time window for the end of the shrinking balance sheet may be between the end of the Fed's current rate hike and the next interest rate cut.</b>The Federal Reserve has repeatedly stated in previous balance sheet operations that the federal funds target rate is its main means to adjust its monetary policy stance. The implication is that shrinking balance sheet and balance sheet expansion are only auxiliary means of its monetary policy. According to data displayed by the CME FedWatch Tool, the current round of rate hike by the Federal Reserve may end in mid-2023. Once the downward pressure on the U.S. economy increases, the Federal Reserve will no longer tighten or even turn to easing again. By then, in order to avoid different policy signals from shrinking balance sheet and interest rate cuts, and in order to maintain the main position of interest rate means in monetary policy, there is a high probability that shrinking balance sheet will \"die down\" by then.</p><p><b>It should be noted that although market liquidity may not be excessively disturbed in the initial stage of the shrinking balance sheet, asset prices may still fluctuate greatly.</b>Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in early May announced that a shrinking balance sheet was about to begin, the 10-year U.S. bond yield once rose to more than 3%, especially the real interest rate of the 10-year U.S. bond soared from 0.07% on May 4 to May 10. 0.34% (while the real interest rate of the 10-year U.S. bond on March 1 was only-0.90%), which reflects that the market is further taking into account the impact of shrinking balance sheet. In the same period,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">The US Dollar Index</a>It fluctuated at a high level above 103, causing the exchange rates of most non-US currencies to plummet. U.S. stocks also experienced a significant correction, with the S&P 500 index once falling below the key point of 4,000. Therefore,<b>From the perspective of the impact on asset prices, the impact of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet cannot be underestimated.</b></p><p><b>Risk warning</b>: International geopolitical conflicts are uncertain, inflationary pressure in the United States exceeds expectations, downward pressure on the U.S. economy exceeds expectations, and the Federal Reserve's policy tightening exceeds expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1de7aced7748879f251930783a3cb1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2243019507","content_text":"编者按：2022年5月美国CPI同比达到8.6%，再度超出市场预期，亦更加凸显了美联储加快紧缩的必要性。6月美联储正式开启缩表后，货币市场利率总体上较稳定，但“缩表+加息”对资产价格的叠加冲击依然值得警惕。核心观点2022年5月4日，美联储宣布将从6月1日开始缩表，每月拟减持475亿美元资产，三个月后增加到950亿美元。本次美联储缩表与以往有何不同之处？对市场的影响又有何变化？本文尝试对以上问题进行回答。回顾上一轮美联储的缩表过程，可以发现：1）由于缺乏有效的参照，上一轮缩表中美联储的操作更加谨慎，美联储并不急于大规模缩减其资产负债表，从引导紧缩到缩表步伐都相对缓慢；2）为了避免降息与缩表同时进行发出不同的政策信号，并缓解金融市场流动性短缺的情况，美联储于2019年8月提前停止了缩表，这一举动比原计划提前了2个月。本次美联储缩表时的宏观背景有所不同，尤其是通胀方面。与2017年相比，目前美国的失业率更低，但通胀更高。这决定了本次美联储缩表的目的与以往不同，且节奏相对更快。我们估算，2017年10月至2019年8月这22个月的时间里，美联储资产负债表规模共下降约15.7%。而若按本次美联储的缩表计划，大约在16-17个月后（即2023年10月前后），美联储的资产负债表就将下降同等比例。往后看，本次缩表中美联储或将表现出更大的灵活性。一方面，目前美国就业情况仍较为强劲，若通胀压力加剧，美联储或将加快其缩表步伐，正如2021年12月加速Taper一样；另一方面，考虑到加息与缩表具有一定替代性。若美国通胀压力有所缓和，为了避免经济“硬着陆”，美联储也有可能放慢其缩表步伐。目前美联储资产负债表结构以及政策工具出现了较大变化，尤其是负债端逆回购协议、财政部一般存款的规模和占比明显提升，这使得缩表对于流动性的扰动可能相对较低。一是，从资产端来看，规模变化存在较大不确定性的MBS占比下降，使得缩表的不确定性降低。二是，逆回购协议规模大幅上升、短端利率更接近利率下限，意味着市场流动性比上一轮缩表开始前更为充裕，为缩表的流动性冲击提供了更厚的缓冲垫。三是，随着美国财政政策逐步正常化，财政部一般存款规模可能会在下半年缓慢回落至疫情前水平，进而向市场释放一定流动性，缓解缩表带来的影响。四是，常备回购便利工具的推出可以在一定条件下提供流动性，并稳定市场信心，降低流动性短缺发生的概率。需要注意的是，尽管缩表初期市场流动性或许不会受到过大扰动，但从对资产价格的影响来看，美联储缩表的冲击依然不可小觑。自5月美联储议息会议来，10年美债收益率一度上行至3%以上，尤其实际利率从3月1日的-0.90%回归至5月10日的0.34%，即体现了市场在进一步计入缩表的影响。美债利率的攀升成为美股调整的重要催化。2022年5月4日，美联储公布5月FOMC议息会议声明，宣布将从6月1日开始缩表，每月拟减持475亿美元资产，三个月后每月拟减持950亿美元资产。这符合3月会议纪要讨论结果，但并未明确缩表终点，只表示将在快达到“充足水平”时减缓缩表节奏。本次美联储缩表与以往有何不同之处？对市场的影响又有何变化？本文尝试对以上问题进行回答。一上一轮美联储货币政策正常化回顾2008年全球金融危机爆发后，为应对经济衰退，美联储推出了零利率、量化宽松等一系列非常规货币政策工具。而随着美国经济趋于稳定复苏，美联储于2013年末正式启动Taper，并在2017年10月开启缩表。而这也是美联储实施非常规货币政策以来唯一的一次缩表操作。因此，有必要对上一轮美联储货币政策正常化进行一定的回顾。美联储上一轮货币政策的正常化始于2013年5月，时任美联储主席伯南克在一次演讲中表示“如果发现美国就业市场持续好转，美联储可能在今后的某一次会议中开始逐步放慢购买资产的速度”，向市场传递了Taper信号。但由于与市场沟通并不充分，金融市场出现了显著波动，即“缩减恐慌（Taper Tantrum）”。2013年12月，美联储议息会议宣布Taper时间表，2014年1-10月逐月削减并最终结束QE。2015年12月，美联储开启了金融危机后的首次加息，但在仅加息25BP后就“浅尝辄止”,直至2016年12月才开始第二次加息，并在此后连续上调政策利率。重点观察上一轮美联储货币政策正常化中的缩表操作。随着美联储加息进程的深入，缩表也被提上日程。2017年10月开始，美联储决定以每月60亿美元、40亿美元的速度缩减其持有的国债、MBS，并在之后的12个月内按照每三个月增加60亿美元、40亿美元的速度递增。直到一年后的2018年10月，美联储缩表速度才达到每月500亿美元（300亿美元国债+200亿美元MBS）的峰值。这或许反映出，由于缺乏有效参照，上一轮缩表中美联储的操作更加谨慎，当时的美联储更希望通过缓慢的、渐进式的缩表，减轻流动性收紧对金融市场的冲击。不过，2019年8月美联储提前停止了缩表。2019年7月议息会议上，美联储宣布将从当年8月起停止缩表，这一举动比原计划提前了2个月。我们认为，当时美联储停止缩表，主要有两方面原因： 一是，为了避免降息与缩表同时进行、发出不同政策信号。2019年8月议息会议上，为了应对低迷的通胀以及全球增长放缓的压力，美联储宣布将联邦基金目标利率下调0.25%。正如美联储反复指出的，联邦基金目标利率是其调整货币政策立场的主要手段。言外之意即是，缩表与扩表只是其货币政策的辅助手段。因此，当经济下行压力加大，政策利率需要下调时，缩表要“让位”于降息。二是，货币市场开始出现流动性紧缺的情况。全球金融危机后伴随三轮QE的推出，美联储的利率调控机制已经从危机前的“利率走廊”体系（Corridor System）转变为非常规的“利率地板”体系（Floor System）。在“利率地板”体系中，存款准备金利率（IOR）作为利率上限，隔夜逆回购协议（ONRRP）操作利率则为利率下限，在流动性充裕时，联邦基金利率（EFFR）将在二者之间运行。但自2019年中开始，随着流动性的不断缩减，联邦基金利率开始突破作为上限的IOR，“钱荒”事件频发，“利率地板”体系逐渐走向失效边缘。2019年7月美联储议息会议纪要中特别提到，缩表带来的准备金减少导致短端利率大幅波动，也表明当时美国货币市场流动性已开始出现短缺。而在2019年10月美联储的声明中表示，为确保准备金充足，美联储将进行定期回购操作，以向市场注入流动性，降低货币市场风险。虽然上一轮缩表后期出现流动性紧缺，但整个缩表期间美国股市表现仍然较为强劲，并未受到明显冲击。上一轮缩表开始后的近一年时间里，美国股市延续了之前的上涨趋势，2017年10月初至2018年9月末，标普500指数涨幅达到15.2%。虽然之后股市出现短暂回调，但主要是由基本面的转弱所致，美国制造业PMI自2018年四季度开始明显回落。2019年初开始，随着美联储不断释放“鸽派”信号，美股也开始反弹。二本次美联储缩表的背景与目的不同从美联储货币政策关注的两大方面——增长与就业来看，与2017年10月开启缩表相比，本次美联储缩表时的宏观背景有所不同，尤其是通胀方面。与2017年初的低通胀、低失业率不同，目前在劳动参与率尚未完全恢复的背景下，美国的失业率更低，但通胀更高。2022年3月美国CPI同比达到8.5%，创下近40年来新高。并且，在补库存需求下滑、贸易逆差大幅增长等短期因素冲击下，2022年一季度美国GDP环比折年率下滑1.4%，经济开始出现滞胀迹象。高通胀的背景决定了本次美联储缩表的节奏不同。2013年5月时任美联储主席伯南克释放Taper信号后，2013年末美联储才真正开启Taper，直到2014年10月Taper才结束，此后又过了一年多的时间美联储才开始加息，从开始Taper到缩表之间的时滞更是达到了46个月，且开始缩表时的美国联邦基准利率已经达到1.25%-1.50%。但是，为了应对不断加剧的通胀压力，本轮美联储缩表的节奏要快于以往。从2021年下半年释放Taper信号开始，美联储的货币政策正常化进程便不断加速。本轮美联储货币政策正常化中，从开启Taper到缩表之间的时间间隔仅有半年左右，紧缩节奏较之前大大加快。美联储5月议息会议纪要表示将从6月1日开始缩表，每月拟减持475亿美元资产，三个月后每月拟减持950亿美元资产。不仅初始缩表规模、节奏远高于上一轮（100亿美元/月，每三个月增加100亿美元），每月最大缩表规模亦高于上一轮的每月500亿美元。缩表规模与节奏的变化将使得本轮美联储资产负债表将以更快的比例下降：2017年10月至2019年8月这22个月的时间里，美联储资产负债表规模共下降约7000亿美元，降幅15.7%。而若按本次美联储的缩表计划，大约在16-17个月后（即2023年10月前后），美联储的资产负债表就将下降同等比例。往后看，本次缩表中美联储或将呈现出更大的灵活性。一方面，目前美国就业情况仍然较为强劲，失业率、领取失业金人数等均处于历史较低位置。因此，若美国通胀压力加剧，美联储或将加快其缩表步伐，正如2021年12月其加速Taper一样；另一方面，考虑到美国经济在库存投资回落、进口大增等“暂时性因素”的影响下，一季度环比折年率下滑1.4%。不管对于这些是否属于暂时性冲击仍存争议，但市场和美联储对美国经济“硬着陆”的担忧无疑都是在增加的。况且，加息与缩表具有一定替代性，美联储亦会细加权衡组合拳的效应。因此，若后续美国通胀压力有所缓和，美联储也有可能放慢其缩表步伐，以减小货币政策紧缩对经济的冲击。这也符合美联储5月议息会议上“将在快达到‘充足水平’时减缓缩表节奏”的模糊表述。三本次美联储资产负债表结构以及政策工具不同研究美联储的缩表操作离不开对其资产负债表的讨论。从资产端来看，美联储的资产主要是持有的证券资产，即其在扩表时购买的各类国债、MBS等，占比接近95%；从负债端来看，美联储的负债包括现金、银行准备金、财政部存款以及逆回购协议，以上四项占比超过99%，尤其是银行准备金，占比超过40%。从资产端来看，与2017年10月相比，美联储持有的国债占比明显提升，而MBS占比相对较低。其中，国债在美联储总资产中的占比由2017年10月的55.3%上升至4月末的64.5%，目前持有规模约5.7万亿美元。而MBS在美联储总资产中的占比则由39.7%下降至30.4%，但规模也超过了2.7万亿美元。与2017年相比，当前美联储资产负债表负债端的差异更为明显，财政部一般存款、逆回购协议的规模和占比明显提升。2017年10月上一轮缩表开始时，美联储负债中的财政部一般存款、逆回购协议规模分别为1851亿美元、3749亿美元，占总负债的比重为4.2%、7.9%，而银行准备金占比超过50%，这也导致上一轮缩表时负债端的下降主要通过准备金规模下降实现的。但截至目前，财政部一般存款、逆回购协议的规模和占比均有明显提升，其中财政部一般存款规模达到9574亿美元，占比10.8%，逆回购协议规模更是达到2.09万亿美元，占比23.5%，二者之和已经接近准备金规模。由于美联储目前资产负债表结构以及政策工具均出现了较大变化，缩表对于流动性的扰动可能相对较低。 一是，从资产端来看，MBS占比下降使得缩表时的不确定性降低。对于国债来说，由于其到期日、到期规模可知，因而国债的减持步调基本是确定的。但是，MBS的减持过程可能存在一定不确定在。这主要来源于：1） MBS存在提前偿付的可能性，借款人在出售房屋或为抵押贷款再融资时，可以选择随时偿还任何额外的抵押贷款本金；2）从操作流程上看，MBS再投资的时间间隔较长，从收到本金（导致持有量减少）到相应的新 MBS 被添加到资产负债表（导致持有量增加）之间的时间间隔最长可达三个月 。在上一轮缩表时，MBS的占比较高，减持规模相对更高，达到了国债减持规模的2/3。但今年5月美联储议息会议显示，本轮缩表中美联储减持规模最多为每月600亿美元国债、350亿美元MBS，MBS在减持中的占比更低，这意味着本轮缩表的不确定性相对更低。二是，从负债端看，逆回购协议规模上升意味着市场上的流动性较为充裕，可以缓解缩表带来的流动性冲击。美联储的逆回购工具与我国央行正回购的功能类似，都是通过向金融机构出售证券，并约定在一段时间后回购，来达到回收市场上多余流动性的目的。因此，在流动性过剩、市场利率较低的时期，非银金融机构为了获取稳定的收益，会选择将资金投向美联储的逆回购协议，逆回购协议利率由此成为充足准备金制度下，美联储利率走廊的下限，逆回购工具的使用量也在一定程度上反映了市场流动性的充裕程度。为何目前逆回购协议的占比均远高于上一轮缩表开始时？首先，对于银行来说，持有准备金是存在成本的。银行持有的准备金规模增加后，其整体资产负债表规模也将扩大，进而带来更高的资本监管要求，因此银行持有准备金的意愿并不会无限增长。其次，银行持有准备金的收益来自于套利交易，即按照市场回购利率（介于ON RRP 利率与存款准备金利率之间）从非银金融机构借入资金，并将这部分资金存入美联储，获得按存款准备金利率计算的利息。因此，存款准备金利率和ON RRP利率之间的价差衡量了套利交易的收益。上一轮缩表开始前后，这一利差保持在25BP，而目前仅为10BP，这无疑使得银行的套利收益下降，进而限制了其从非银金融机构借入资金的意愿。因而，大量的流动性淤积在非银金融机构中，非银金融机构只能直接将这部分资金存入美联储，导致目前逆回购协议的占比明显提升。目前联邦基金利率（EFFR）的相对位置同样表明，目前流动性较上轮缩表开始时更为充裕。如前所述，准备金利率（IOR）与隔夜逆回购利率（ON RRP）分别是联邦基金利率的上限和下限。我们分别计算了IOR与EFFR之差和EFFR与ON RRP利率之差，代表短期利率距离利率上限与下限的距离。可以发现，在上一轮美联储缩表开始前后，IOR与EFFR之间的差值更小，代表当时短端利率距离上限更为接近；而在目前，EFFR与ON RRP 利率的差值更小，短端利率距离下限更为接近，反映出的即是目前的流动性较上轮缩表开始时更加充裕。上一轮缩表开始时，美联储资产负债表负债端多为银行准备金，但目前逆回购协议规模的大增、以及联邦基金利率（EFFR）更接近利率下限，均表明无论是银行还是非银金融机构的流动性，均较上一轮缩表开始时更为充裕。因此，当美联储通过缩表回收流动性时，其资产负债表资产端持有的债券规模下降；而对于负债端来说，可通过逆回购协议规模的下降（而非像上一轮缩表一样，通过准备金规模的下降），实现相应的缩减，进而降低缩表对于准备金及市场流动性的冲击。三是，财政部一般存款规模的下降也将释放一定流动性。财政部一般存款规模的高增也是本次缩表时的另一项重要特点。与我国财政存款的作用类似，美国财政部一般存款的变动也会对市场流动性形成扰动。新冠疫情爆发前，美联储资产负债表中财政部一般存款（TGA）规模虽然有一定波动，但总规模基本保持在4000亿美元以下；疫情爆发后，美国财政部通过发行国债大量融资，TGA规模迅速上升，一度达到近1.8万亿美元的天量。2021年一季度，随着1.9万亿美元纾困法案的推出，TGA规模迅速下降。2021年中美国政府债务触及上限，财政部难以继续通过发债融资，TGA账户余额不断下降，一度降至不到600亿美元，在此过程中向市场释放了大量流动性。但2021年12月美国政府债务上限再次调升后，财政部通过发行国债迅速重建了其现金储备，4月末TGA账户规模已超过9000亿美元。往后看，美国财政政策也将逐步正常化，财政部一般存款规模可能会在下半年缓慢回落至疫情前水平，进而会向市场释放一定流动性，缓解缩表带来的流动性冲击。四是，常备回购便利（Standing Repo Facility，SRF）工具的推出也降低了流动性短缺发生的概率。2019年中开始，美国金融市场流动性便出现短缺迹象，即期利率不断突破联邦基金目标利率上限。2019年9月，在缴税及国债发行等因素的影响下，EFFR一度高于存款准备金利率20BP；2020年3月美国金融市场再度爆发“钱荒”，代表未来资金借贷成本的3个月FRA/OIS利差一度升至2008年以来高点，纽约联储回购操作连续遭超额认购。频繁发生的流动性短缺状况引发了美联储的关注：2021年7月，为了解决货币政策正常化过程中可能出现的流动性短缺问题，美联储“未雨绸缪”的推出了SRF工具。该工具允许合格交易商以国债、ABS或MBS为抵押品，以一定利率（通常被设定为联邦基金目标利率的上限）从美联储借入美元。SRF工具主要通过两个渠道发挥作用：一是，如前所述，准备金利率（IOR）只有在流动性充裕的情况下才会发挥利率上限的作用。当流动性开始紧张时，部分金融机构愿意以高于IOR的水平从市场借入资金，导致短端利率突破作为利率上限的IOR。SRF工具的功能简单来说便是，以一定的利率向市场释放流动性，进而降低利率的上行压力，正如2019年9月SRF工具尚未推出时，美联储通过回购操作压低短期利率一样。二是，SRF工具的推出增强了市场对于短期利率稳定的信心，进而降低了市场利率大幅波动的可能性。因此，该工具可以保证即期利率运行在联邦基金目标利率范围内。另外，SRF工具的使用量也是观察金融市场流动性状况的重要窗口：在金融市场流动性可以满足实际需求时，金融机构可通过市场顺利融资，SRF工具使用量应相对较低；而当金融市场流动性出现短缺时，金融机构会转而向美联储寻求流动性支持，SRF工具使用量也会相应上升。四小结总的来说，与2017年开启的缩表相比，通胀压力的加剧导致本次美联储缩表的节奏可能更快，但通胀走势的不确定性、以及美国经济“硬着陆”的风险，也使得美联储后续缩表的灵活性更强。与此同时，美联储也需细加权衡相机观察加息与缩表“组合拳”的效应。更重要的区别在于，从逆回购协议规模来看，目前美国金融市场的流动性已过度充裕，叠加后续财政部一般存款规模可能下降以及SRF工具的提前推出，本次美联储缩表对市场流动性的冲击或不及以往。 往后看，缩表结束的时间窗口或许在美联储本轮加息结束到下次降息之间。美联储在以往的资产负债表操作中曾多次声明，联邦基金目标利率是其调整货币政策立场的主要手段，言外之意即是，缩表与扩表只是其货币政策的辅助手段。根据CME FedWatch Tool显示的数据，美联储本轮加息或将于2023年中结束。一旦之后美国经济下行压力加大，美联储将不再紧缩甚至再次转向宽松。届时，为了避免缩表与降息发出不同的政策信号，为了保持利率手段在货币政策中的主要地位，届时缩表大概率亦将“偃旗息鼓”。需要注意的是，尽管缩表初期市场流动性或许不会受到过大扰动，但资产价格仍然可能出现巨大波动。自5月初美联储议息会议宣布即将开启缩表以来，10年美债收益率一度上行至3%以上，尤其是10年期美债实际利率从5月4日的0.07%蹿升至5月10日的0.34%（而3月1日10年期美债实际利率仅为-0.90%），即体现了市场在进一步计入缩表的影响。同期，美元指数在103以上高位震荡，导致多数非美货币汇率急跌。美股也出现了明显回调，标普500指数一度跌至4000这一关键点位之下。因此，从对资产价格的影响来看，美联储缩表的冲击依然不可小觑。风险提示：国际地缘冲突具有不确定性，美国通胀压力超预期，美国经济下行压力超预期，美联储政策紧缩力度超预期等。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":588,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9931588113,"gmtCreate":1662479764733,"gmtModify":1676537070202,"author":{"id":"3587038191942835","authorId":"3587038191942835","name":"康康的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a7001836b41194d4d68114ab8afcfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587038191942835","idStr":"3587038191942835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9931588113","repostId":"1194157333","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194157333","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662463847,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194157333?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-06 19:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Preview of Apple's autumn conference! Besides iPhone 14, what else is there?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194157333","media":"新浪科技","summary":"北京时间9月8日凌晨1:00，苹果将举办今年的秋季发布会。除了iPhone 14外，今年还将有一大波新品一同亮相。从目前得到的消息来看，至少还会有3款Apple Watch，以及一款全新的AirPod","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>At 1:00 a.m. Beijing time on September 8th, Apple will hold this year's autumn conference. In addition to the iPhone 14, a large wave of new products will be unveiled this year. Judging from the news so far, there will be at least three Apple Watches and a new AirPods Pro true wireless headset.</p><p>Similar to the Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) in June this year, Apple will also hold a small offline conference at the Apple Park headquarters campus, which will be broadcast live to the world through the Internet. Here are the new products we may see at this year's Apple hardware feast.</p><p><b>iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max</b></p><p><b>Get a major upgrade</b></p><p>Apple will launch the new iPhone 14 at this press conference in September, but the standard version may not become this year's star. The ones that are really expected to get a big upgrade are the iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/473585834c385d2f3608727e55c4c31e\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max are expected to usher in the following three new features: customizable screen display (Android phones have implemented this feature many years ago); 48-megapixel rear camera with larger sensor; Replace the bangs design with smaller camera openings.</p><p>Speaking of openings, previous reports said that iPhone 14 Max and Max Pro will reserve two independent openings for the camera and speaker, but when the screen lights up, the two will form a long pill shape. However, some sources revealed that Apple will highlight the privacy indicators of the camera and microphone in the extra space between these two openings. Users can directly click here to learn about the current access information of these two pieces of hardware. There is also news that Apple may optimize the camera application of the Pro phone, moving the flash and autofocus buttons to the top of the screen, and other functions directly under the opening.</p><p>The phone will also be upgraded to an A16 processor, and there is a possibility that two new colorways will be released: blue and dark purple. There are also rumors that both devices will support a 30-watt charger (but the phone itself may still not come with a USB-C interface), and the minimum RAM will be upgraded to 256GB from the previous 128GB. In addition, the Pro model may also adopt a thinner bezel and a larger battery. However, it is precisely because of the integration of so many new features that Apple may raise the price of high-end iPhone.</p><p>The standard iPhone doesn't seem to be ushering in many major tweaks. Perhaps the biggest change in non-Pro models is that the iPhone 14 Max is equipped with a large 6.7-inch screen. However, judging from the packaging flowing out of Apple's factory, Apple may not let the standard iPhone use the suffix Max, but will adopt Plus-the last time Apple used this suffix was the iPhone 8 Plus.</p><p>Name aside, well-known Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has received news that the iPhone 14 (and Pro and Pro Max) may be upgraded with a selfie camera and equipped with autofocus. It is also possible that the standard iPhone 14 will use the same A15 processor as the iPhone 13 series phones. But Apple may not release a mini model this year, which will undoubtedly disappoint small-screen mobile phone enthusiasts.</p><p>Other rumors include that the iPhone may have a built-in satellite module to help users communicate without the cellular network in an emergency. Before the release of the iPhone 13 last year, rumors of satellite modules were rampant, and in February this year, the satellite company Globalstar also purchased 17 new satellites to \"provide continuous satellite services to potential customers\"-industry insiders suspect that this \"potential customer\" is Apple. The name of Apple's \"Far Out\" conference this year also hints at this possibility.</p><p><b>New Apple Watch:</b></p><p><b>Series 8, SE and Pro</b></p><p>Apple is ready to launch three new Apple Watch models: Watch Series 8, a new version of SE and a ruggedized Pro model specially prepared for extreme sports enthusiasts.</p><p>Start with Series 8 first. It is reported that the new generation of Apple Watch will use the new S8 chip, but its performance will not be much improved compared with the S7 and S6 chips. Apple may not have a built-in sphygmomanometer in this product either, but it may have a built-in temperature sensor to facilitate knowing whether users have a fever, and will have a built-in physiological cycle tracking function.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46a3b53a1c3abe4de5bbc77ec389328b\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Meanwhile, the new Apple Watch SE is expected to replace the lower-priced Watch Series 3. This product will also use the S8 chip, which is an upgrade from the S5 chip of the 2020 SE model. Besides, I'm afraid this product won't change much, and the screen will be consistent with the current SE.</p><p>As for the Apple Watch Pro, it is reported that it will be equipped with a \"close to 2-inch screen\" and has strong impact resistance. The product will also use a \"hard metal shell\" instead of the previously rumored rubber frame. There are reports that the Pro model may feature a flat-edged display with a larger 47mm outer frame, which is larger than the 41mm and 45mm bezels of the previous Apple Watch Series 7. In addition, this new product may not fit the old Watch strap.</p><p>While the first-generation Pro products may not have a built-in satellite module, future models may add this feature. It is reported that Apple is communicating this plan internally. Even without the satellite function, the price of this watch will not be cheap-industry insiders expect it to be between $900 and $999.</p><p><b>New generation of AirPods Pro unveiled</b></p><p>The AirPods Pro hasn't been upgraded since its release in 2019. Now, nearly 3 years later, Apple is finally on track to launch the AirPods Pro 2 at this year's Far Out event.</p><p>First of all, the appearance of this product may be adjusted. The new AirPods Pro could be very similar to the Beats Fit Pro-with an in-ear wingtip design that eliminates the headphone handle altogether. Thanks to the built-in motion sensor, this product may focus on motion tracking functions.</p><p>Ming-Chi Kuo also revealed that AirPods Pro will also support lossless audio, which is very attractive to users who value sound quality. Additionally, the first offering of the AirPods Pro 2 will feature Apple's Lossless Audio Decoder (ALAC)-a feature not supported even by the high-end AirPods Max. In order to ensure transmission quality, current Bluetooth headsets usually compress the sound quality. If AirPods Pro 2 really supports ALAC, it is worth looking forward to how Apple can successfully break through the limitations of Bluetooth headsets.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6892bfd0a68d6f1d2177201320582fd\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>However, there are several media reports that Apple may adopt a different scheme. The company may instead add support for Bluetooth 5.2, which uses a new decoder to improve audio transmission efficiency, thus improving sound quality or reducing power consumption. Recent Bluetooth SIG product database updates show that Apple may adopt this technology in AirPods Pro, and this technology can also be mentioned in the code for iOS 16.</p><p>The charging case for the AirPods Pro 2 may also be upgraded. It may have a small speaker built into it to allow users to make a sound when using the \"Find My\" app to find a charging case. Currently, only AirPods themselves can make sound. If this function can be supported on the charging case, it can indeed provide convenience when the headphones are separated from the charging case.</p><p><b>Announce iOS 16 and WatchOS 9 release time</b></p><p>We first heard about iOS 16 when Apple announced relevant information in June, and industry insiders said that Apple ended development last week, and the company may officially launch the final version within a week after the iPhone 14 conference. iOS 16.</p><p>iOS 16 will introduce several new features, including editing and withdrawing messages and customizing the lock screen interface. In addition, you can transfer notifications to the bottom of the lock screen interface, add the Live Activities lock screen plug-in, and provide updates on real-time events, such as sports scores and take-out progress.</p><p>In addition, the battery percentage is finally returning, but it may not be the kind of return many people imagined. Fortunately, Apple may have found a way to squeeze the percentage indicator into the status bar of the iPhone 14 Pro, but abandoned the previous mode of displaying numbers and icons side by side.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/813d37a1dd30d81b98ee69453046b88f\" tg-width=\"917\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In addition to iOS 16, Apple will also release watchOS 9 along with three new Apple Watches. The watchOS 9 beta version has been launched for several months, and the system may introduce some upgrades to Apple Watch, including new running indicators, medication reminders, sleep tracking, passive atrial fibrillation monitoring and new dial customization.</p><p><b>Is that all?</b></p><p>Now, it seems that this is probably all about this year's Apple conference. Fortunately, another wave of new products will be ushered in in a few days. Apple may return to its pre-epidemic model: a new iPhone launch conference will be held in September, and a separate new iPad and Mac launch conference will be held in October.</p><p>It is expected to usher in the iPad Pro equipped with the M2 chip and the entry-level iPad equipped with the A14 chip. There are rumors that Apple will also launch 3 new Macs, including the Mac mini, Mac Pro and MacBook Pro, all of which will be powered by the M2 chip. iPadOS and macOS Ventura will presumably launch at similar times.</p><p>In addition, the long-rumored Apple mixed reality headsets are also highly anticipated, but they are unlikely to release them this year. Apple has made some progress, though. Recent trademark filings show that the company will use the Reality brand name for the new headset. It is reported that Apple's board of directors tried the product earlier this year. Ming-Chi Kuo expects the device to be released in January 2023.</p><p>Remember the iPhone subscription rental earlier this year? Judging from the current news, this service may be launched by the end of the year, when users can choose to \"rent\" iPhone or iPad by monthly payment.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Preview of Apple's autumn conference! 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Besides iPhone 14, what else is there?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-06 19:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>At 1:00 a.m. Beijing time on September 8th, Apple will hold this year's autumn conference. In addition to the iPhone 14, a large wave of new products will be unveiled this year. Judging from the news so far, there will be at least three Apple Watches and a new AirPods Pro true wireless headset.</p><p>Similar to the Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) in June this year, Apple will also hold a small offline conference at the Apple Park headquarters campus, which will be broadcast live to the world through the Internet. Here are the new products we may see at this year's Apple hardware feast.</p><p><b>iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max</b></p><p><b>Get a major upgrade</b></p><p>Apple will launch the new iPhone 14 at this press conference in September, but the standard version may not become this year's star. The ones that are really expected to get a big upgrade are the iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/473585834c385d2f3608727e55c4c31e\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max are expected to usher in the following three new features: customizable screen display (Android phones have implemented this feature many years ago); 48-megapixel rear camera with larger sensor; Replace the bangs design with smaller camera openings.</p><p>Speaking of openings, previous reports said that iPhone 14 Max and Max Pro will reserve two independent openings for the camera and speaker, but when the screen lights up, the two will form a long pill shape. However, some sources revealed that Apple will highlight the privacy indicators of the camera and microphone in the extra space between these two openings. Users can directly click here to learn about the current access information of these two pieces of hardware. There is also news that Apple may optimize the camera application of the Pro phone, moving the flash and autofocus buttons to the top of the screen, and other functions directly under the opening.</p><p>The phone will also be upgraded to an A16 processor, and there is a possibility that two new colorways will be released: blue and dark purple. There are also rumors that both devices will support a 30-watt charger (but the phone itself may still not come with a USB-C interface), and the minimum RAM will be upgraded to 256GB from the previous 128GB. In addition, the Pro model may also adopt a thinner bezel and a larger battery. However, it is precisely because of the integration of so many new features that Apple may raise the price of high-end iPhone.</p><p>The standard iPhone doesn't seem to be ushering in many major tweaks. Perhaps the biggest change in non-Pro models is that the iPhone 14 Max is equipped with a large 6.7-inch screen. However, judging from the packaging flowing out of Apple's factory, Apple may not let the standard iPhone use the suffix Max, but will adopt Plus-the last time Apple used this suffix was the iPhone 8 Plus.</p><p>Name aside, well-known Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has received news that the iPhone 14 (and Pro and Pro Max) may be upgraded with a selfie camera and equipped with autofocus. It is also possible that the standard iPhone 14 will use the same A15 processor as the iPhone 13 series phones. But Apple may not release a mini model this year, which will undoubtedly disappoint small-screen mobile phone enthusiasts.</p><p>Other rumors include that the iPhone may have a built-in satellite module to help users communicate without the cellular network in an emergency. Before the release of the iPhone 13 last year, rumors of satellite modules were rampant, and in February this year, the satellite company Globalstar also purchased 17 new satellites to \"provide continuous satellite services to potential customers\"-industry insiders suspect that this \"potential customer\" is Apple. The name of Apple's \"Far Out\" conference this year also hints at this possibility.</p><p><b>New Apple Watch:</b></p><p><b>Series 8, SE and Pro</b></p><p>Apple is ready to launch three new Apple Watch models: Watch Series 8, a new version of SE and a ruggedized Pro model specially prepared for extreme sports enthusiasts.</p><p>Start with Series 8 first. It is reported that the new generation of Apple Watch will use the new S8 chip, but its performance will not be much improved compared with the S7 and S6 chips. Apple may not have a built-in sphygmomanometer in this product either, but it may have a built-in temperature sensor to facilitate knowing whether users have a fever, and will have a built-in physiological cycle tracking function.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46a3b53a1c3abe4de5bbc77ec389328b\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Meanwhile, the new Apple Watch SE is expected to replace the lower-priced Watch Series 3. This product will also use the S8 chip, which is an upgrade from the S5 chip of the 2020 SE model. Besides, I'm afraid this product won't change much, and the screen will be consistent with the current SE.</p><p>As for the Apple Watch Pro, it is reported that it will be equipped with a \"close to 2-inch screen\" and has strong impact resistance. The product will also use a \"hard metal shell\" instead of the previously rumored rubber frame. There are reports that the Pro model may feature a flat-edged display with a larger 47mm outer frame, which is larger than the 41mm and 45mm bezels of the previous Apple Watch Series 7. In addition, this new product may not fit the old Watch strap.</p><p>While the first-generation Pro products may not have a built-in satellite module, future models may add this feature. It is reported that Apple is communicating this plan internally. Even without the satellite function, the price of this watch will not be cheap-industry insiders expect it to be between $900 and $999.</p><p><b>New generation of AirPods Pro unveiled</b></p><p>The AirPods Pro hasn't been upgraded since its release in 2019. Now, nearly 3 years later, Apple is finally on track to launch the AirPods Pro 2 at this year's Far Out event.</p><p>First of all, the appearance of this product may be adjusted. The new AirPods Pro could be very similar to the Beats Fit Pro-with an in-ear wingtip design that eliminates the headphone handle altogether. Thanks to the built-in motion sensor, this product may focus on motion tracking functions.</p><p>Ming-Chi Kuo also revealed that AirPods Pro will also support lossless audio, which is very attractive to users who value sound quality. Additionally, the first offering of the AirPods Pro 2 will feature Apple's Lossless Audio Decoder (ALAC)-a feature not supported even by the high-end AirPods Max. In order to ensure transmission quality, current Bluetooth headsets usually compress the sound quality. If AirPods Pro 2 really supports ALAC, it is worth looking forward to how Apple can successfully break through the limitations of Bluetooth headsets.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6892bfd0a68d6f1d2177201320582fd\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>However, there are several media reports that Apple may adopt a different scheme. The company may instead add support for Bluetooth 5.2, which uses a new decoder to improve audio transmission efficiency, thus improving sound quality or reducing power consumption. Recent Bluetooth SIG product database updates show that Apple may adopt this technology in AirPods Pro, and this technology can also be mentioned in the code for iOS 16.</p><p>The charging case for the AirPods Pro 2 may also be upgraded. It may have a small speaker built into it to allow users to make a sound when using the \"Find My\" app to find a charging case. Currently, only AirPods themselves can make sound. If this function can be supported on the charging case, it can indeed provide convenience when the headphones are separated from the charging case.</p><p><b>Announce iOS 16 and WatchOS 9 release time</b></p><p>We first heard about iOS 16 when Apple announced relevant information in June, and industry insiders said that Apple ended development last week, and the company may officially launch the final version within a week after the iPhone 14 conference. iOS 16.</p><p>iOS 16 will introduce several new features, including editing and withdrawing messages and customizing the lock screen interface. In addition, you can transfer notifications to the bottom of the lock screen interface, add the Live Activities lock screen plug-in, and provide updates on real-time events, such as sports scores and take-out progress.</p><p>In addition, the battery percentage is finally returning, but it may not be the kind of return many people imagined. Fortunately, Apple may have found a way to squeeze the percentage indicator into the status bar of the iPhone 14 Pro, but abandoned the previous mode of displaying numbers and icons side by side.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/813d37a1dd30d81b98ee69453046b88f\" tg-width=\"917\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In addition to iOS 16, Apple will also release watchOS 9 along with three new Apple Watches. The watchOS 9 beta version has been launched for several months, and the system may introduce some upgrades to Apple Watch, including new running indicators, medication reminders, sleep tracking, passive atrial fibrillation monitoring and new dial customization.</p><p><b>Is that all?</b></p><p>Now, it seems that this is probably all about this year's Apple conference. Fortunately, another wave of new products will be ushered in in a few days. Apple may return to its pre-epidemic model: a new iPhone launch conference will be held in September, and a separate new iPad and Mac launch conference will be held in October.</p><p>It is expected to usher in the iPad Pro equipped with the M2 chip and the entry-level iPad equipped with the A14 chip. There are rumors that Apple will also launch 3 new Macs, including the Mac mini, Mac Pro and MacBook Pro, all of which will be powered by the M2 chip. iPadOS and macOS Ventura will presumably launch at similar times.</p><p>In addition, the long-rumored Apple mixed reality headsets are also highly anticipated, but they are unlikely to release them this year. Apple has made some progress, though. Recent trademark filings show that the company will use the Reality brand name for the new headset. It is reported that Apple's board of directors tried the product earlier this year. Ming-Chi Kuo expects the device to be released in January 2023.</p><p>Remember the iPhone subscription rental earlier this year? Judging from the current news, this service may be launched by the end of the year, when users can choose to \"rent\" iPhone or iPad by monthly payment.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/9kqSUZN6pdoFdaf4ReMgvQ\">新浪科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85ab05f805a20d19d22acf73d55b0842","relate_stocks":{"BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4571":"数字音乐概念","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4576":"AR","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","AAPL":"苹果","BK4566":"资本集团"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/9kqSUZN6pdoFdaf4ReMgvQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194157333","content_text":"北京时间9月8日凌晨1:00，苹果将举办今年的秋季发布会。除了iPhone 14外，今年还将有一大波新品一同亮相。从目前得到的消息来看，至少还会有3款Apple Watch，以及一款全新的AirPods Pro真无线耳机。与今年6月的全球开发者大会（WWDC）类似，苹果也将在Apple Park总部园区举行小型线下发布会，同时将通过互联网向全球现场直播，而以下就是我们可能在今年这场苹果硬件盛宴上看到的新品。iPhone 14 Pro和Pro Max获得重大升级苹果会在9月的这场发布会上推出全新iPhone 14，但标准版恐怕不会成为今年的明星。真正有望获得大幅升级的是iPhone 14 Pro和Pro Max。iPhone 14 Pro和Pro Max有望迎来以下三大新功能：可定制的息屏显示（安卓手机好多年前就已经实现了这项功能）；配备更大尺寸传感器的4800万像素后置摄像头；用更小的摄像头开孔取代刘海设计。谈到开孔，之前有报道称，iPhone 14 Max和Max Pro将给摄像头和扬声器预留两个独立开口，但当屏幕点亮时，二者又会形成一个长药丸形状。但有消息人士透露，苹果将在这两个开孔之间的额外空间来突出显示摄像头和麦克风的隐私指示器，用户可以直接点击此处来了解这两个硬件的当前接入信息。还有消息称，苹果可能会对Pro手机的相机应用进行优化，把闪光灯和自动对焦按钮挪到屏幕顶部，其它功能则直接位于开孔下方。这款手机还会升级到A16处理器，并有可能发布两个新的配色：蓝色和深紫色。还有传言称，这两款设备将支持30瓦充电器（但手机本身可能仍然不会配备USB-C接口），最低内存将从之前的128GB升级到256GB。此外，Pro机型还有可能采用更薄的边框和更大的电池。不过，正是因为整合了这么多的新特性，所以，苹果有可能上调高端iPhone的售价。标准版iPhone似乎不会迎来太多重大调整。非Pro机型最大的变化可能就是为iPhone 14 Max配备6.7英寸的大屏了。然而，从苹果工厂流出的包装来看，苹果可能不会让标准版iPhone使用Max这个后缀，而是会采用Plus——苹果上一次使用这个后缀还是iPhone 8 Plus。抛开名称不谈，著名苹果分析师郭明錤得到的消息显示，iPhone 14（以及Pro和Pro Max）可能升级自拍摄像头，配备自动对焦功能。标准版iPhone 14还有可能采用与iPhone 13系列手机相同的A15处理器。但苹果今年可能不会发布mini机型，这无疑会令小屏手机爱好者感到失望。其它传言还包括：iPhone可能会内置卫星模块，帮助用户在紧急情况下脱离蜂窝网络进行通讯。去年的iPhone 13发布前，卫星模块的传言就甚嚣尘上，而在今年2月，卫星公司Globalstar还购买了17颗新卫星“为潜在客户提供持续的卫星服务”——业内人士怀疑，这个“潜在客户”就是苹果。而苹果今年的“Far Out”发布会名称也暗示了这种可能性。新款Apple Watch：Series 8、SE和Pro苹果准备推出3款全新的Apple Watch机型：Watch Series 8、新版SE和专为喜欢极限运动爱好者准备的加固款Pro机型。先从Series 8开始。据悉，新一代Apple Watch将采用新的S8芯片，但性能上较S7和S6芯片并不会有太大提升。苹果可能也不会在这款产品中内置血压计，但有可能内置体温传感器，便于了解用户是否发烧，并将内置生理周期追踪功能。与此同时，新款Apple Watch SE有望取代低价Watch Series 3。这款产品也将采用S8芯片，较2020款SE机型的S5芯片有所升级。除此之外，这款产品恐怕不会有太大变化，屏幕将与现款SE保持一致。至于Apple Watch Pro，有消息称它将配备“接近2英寸的屏幕”，而且具备很强的抗冲击能力。该产品还将采用“坚硬的金属外壳”，而非之前传言的橡胶外框。有报道称，Pro机型可能采用平边显示屏，配备更大的47毫米外框，大于之前的Apple Watch Series 7的41毫米和45毫米边框。另外，这款新品可能无法适配老款Watch表带。虽然第一代Pro产品可能不会内置卫星模块，但未来的机型可能会增加这一功能。有报道称，苹果内部正在沟通这一方案。即便是没有卫星功能，这款手表的售价也不会便宜——业内人士预计在900至999美元之间。新一代AirPods Pro亮相自从2019年发布以来，AirPods Pro一直没有升级。现在，将近3年过去了，苹果终于有望在今年的Far Out发布会上推出AirPods Pro 2了。首先，这款产品的外观可能有所调整。新款AirPods Pro可能与Beats Fit Pro非常相似——采用入耳式翼尖设计，彻底取消耳机柄。由于内置运动传感器，这款产品可能把重点放在运动追踪功能上。郭明錤还透露，AirPods Pro还将支持无损音频，这对看重音质的用户很有吸引力。此外，AirPods Pro 2的首款产品将采用苹果无损音频解码器（ALAC）——就连高端AirPods Max都不支持这项功能。目前的蓝牙耳机为了保证传输质量，通常会对音质进行压缩，如果AirPods Pro 2果真支持ALAC，那么苹果如何成功突破蓝牙耳机的局限就非常值得期待。但有多家媒体报道称，苹果可能会采用不同的方案。该公司可能会转而增加对蓝牙5.2的支持，这种技术使用了新的解码器来提高音频传输效率，从而提高音质或降低耗电量。最近的蓝牙SIG产品数据库更新显示，苹果可能会在AirPods Pro中采用这项技术，而iOS 16的代码中也可提到了这项技术。AirPods Pro 2的充电盒也可能会升级。它可能内置一个小喇叭，以便用户在使用“Find My”应用寻找充电盒时发出声音。目前只有AirPods本身可以发声，如果能在充电盒上支持该功能，确实可以耳机与充电盒分离时提供便利。公布iOS 16和WatchOS 9发布时间我们第一次听说iOS 16是在苹果6月公布相关信息时，而业内人士表示，苹果已于上周结束了开发，该公司可能会在iPhone 14发布会结束后的一周内正式推出最终版iOS 16。iOS 16将引入多项新功能，包括编辑和撤回消息以及定制锁屏界面。此外还可以将通知转移到锁屏界面底部，增加Live Activities锁屏插件，提供实时事件的更新，比如体育比分和外卖进度等。另外，电池百分比也终于要回归了，但可能并不是许多人想象的那种回归。幸运的是，苹果或许找到了一种方式把百分比指示器压缩到iPhone 14 Pro的状态栏中，但却放弃了之前那种将数字与图标并排显示的模式。除了iOS 16外，苹果还会随同三款新的Apple Watch一起发布watchOS 9。watchOS 9 beta版已经推出几个月时间了，该系统可能为Apple Watch引入一些升级，包括新的跑步指标、服药提醒、睡眠追踪、被动心房颤动监测和新的表盘定制。就这些吗？现在看来，这大概就是今年苹果发布会的全部内容。好在过不了几天就可以迎来另外一波新品。苹果可能会恢复疫情前的模式：9月举行iPhone新品发布会，10月再单独举行iPad和Mac新品发布会。届时有望迎来搭载M2芯片的iPad Pro和搭载A14芯片的入门级iPad。有传言称，苹果还将推出3款新Mac，包括Mac mini、Mac Pro和MacBook Pro，这些设备都将搭载M2芯片。iPadOS和macOS Ventura大概会在相似的时间推出。另外，传言已久的苹果混合现实头显也备受期待，但他们不太可能会在今年发布。不过，苹果已经取得了一些进展。最近的商标申请文件显示，该公司将为新款头显采用Reality的品牌名称。有报道称，苹果董事会已于今年早些时候试用了这款产品。郭明錤预计该设备的发布时间是2023年1月。还记得今年早些时候的iPhone订阅租赁吗？从目前的消息来看，这项服务可能到年底推出，用户届时可以选择通过每月付费的方式“租用”iPhone或iPad。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":650,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9905937317,"gmtCreate":1659793608142,"gmtModify":1703766581638,"author":{"id":"3587038191942835","authorId":"3587038191942835","name":"康康的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a7001836b41194d4d68114ab8afcfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587038191942835","idStr":"3587038191942835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9905937317","repostId":"2257452191","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9043489917,"gmtCreate":1655951318239,"gmtModify":1676535739156,"author":{"id":"3587038191942835","authorId":"3587038191942835","name":"康康的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a7001836b41194d4d68114ab8afcfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587038191942835","idStr":"3587038191942835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9043489917","repostId":"2245324562","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":445,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9043974854,"gmtCreate":1655866522178,"gmtModify":1676535722056,"author":{"id":"3587038191942835","authorId":"3587038191942835","name":"康康的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a7001836b41194d4d68114ab8afcfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587038191942835","idStr":"3587038191942835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9043974854","repostId":"1122597144","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":537,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9050106160,"gmtCreate":1654139965250,"gmtModify":1676535401838,"author":{"id":"3587038191942835","authorId":"3587038191942835","name":"康康的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a7001836b41194d4d68114ab8afcfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587038191942835","idStr":"3587038191942835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9050106160","repostId":"1152411429","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9020518350,"gmtCreate":1652664895970,"gmtModify":1676535135846,"author":{"id":"3587038191942835","authorId":"3587038191942835","name":"康康的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a7001836b41194d4d68114ab8afcfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587038191942835","idStr":"3587038191942835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9020518350","repostId":"1172408333","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9098320737,"gmtCreate":1644027568636,"gmtModify":1676533883578,"author":{"id":"3587038191942835","authorId":"3587038191942835","name":"康康的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a7001836b41194d4d68114ab8afcfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587038191942835","idStr":"3587038191942835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"h","listText":"h","text":"h","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9098320737","repostId":"1173208136","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":484,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071421318,"gmtCreate":1657581973034,"gmtModify":1676536027804,"author":{"id":"3587038191942835","authorId":"3587038191942835","name":"康康的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a7001836b41194d4d68114ab8afcfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587038191942835","idStr":"3587038191942835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071421318","repostId":"2250981695","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2250981695","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657523307,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2250981695?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-11 15:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the second quarter earnings season \"more bad luck\"? The \"big test\" of US stocks is coming!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2250981695","media":"智通财经","summary":"自1月触及纪录高位以来，美股已蒸发逾万亿美元，目前仍陷于熊市。本周二季度美股财报季将拉开序幕，美股走势或将受到影响。一方面，企业越来越担心经济衰退的到来，鉴于较好的经济形势可能不会持续下去，许多企业已","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Since hitting a record high in January, U.S. stocks have evaporated more than $1 trillion and are still stuck in a bear market. The U.S. stock earnings season will kick off in the second quarter of this week, and the trend of U.S. stocks may be affected.</p><p>On the one hand, companies are increasingly worried about the arrival of an economic recession, and many companies have lowered their performance guidance given that the better economic situation may not last. On the other hand, some companies still firmly believe that the situation of U.S. stocks will improve, and have raised their profit forecasts for 2022 in the past month.</p><p>Stock valuations have fallen below historical averages, which could attract dip-hunting investors. However, some investors and analysts have warned that the upcoming earnings season may lead to another sharp drop in global stock prices, as corporate earnings estimates are not optimistic due to rising recession risks.</p><p>Many companies cut performance guidance</p><p>The Federal Reserve's sharp rate hike has brought new losses to companies, and sharp rate hike may hit demand, increasing the possibility of an economic recession and putting more pressure on U.S. stock performance guidance. Businesses are increasingly worried about the coming of an economic recession, and many have lowered their performance guidance given that the better economic situation may not last.</p><p>Currently, 103 companies in the S&P Index have issued 2022 Q2 earnings per share (EPS) guidance. Of these 103 companies, 72 companies issued negative EPS guidance and 31 companies issued positive EPS guidance. This is the largest number of S&P 500 companies issuing negative quarterly EPS guidance since the fourth quarter of 2019 (73 companies). Currently, the proportion of companies in the S&P 500 issuing negative EPS guidance for the second quarter of 2022 is 70% (72 of 103 companies), which is higher than the 5-year average of 60% and the 10-year average of 67%.</p><p>As of now, 245 companies in the S&P Index have issued full-year 2022 EPS guidance. Of these 245 companies, 136 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 109 companies have issued positive EPS guidance. The percentage of companies that issued negative EPS guidance was 56% (136 out of 245).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9feb54c7b999af6434b90d243d0ecaac\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If a company provides guidance (or the midpoint of range guidance) that is lower than the average EPS the day before the guidance was issued, the guidance is listed as negative. If the company provides guidance (or the midpoint of the guidance range) that is higher than the average EPS the day before the guidance was issued, the guidance is classified as positive.</p><p>Overall, analysts have generally lowered their earnings estimates for the second quarter of 2022 in terms of revisions to earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies. Analysts and businesses have lowered their earnings estimates for the second quarter so far. The S&P 500 is expected to record its lowest earnings growth since the fourth quarter of 2020.</p><p>On a per share basis, estimated earnings for the second quarter are down 0.9% since March 31. While this decline is lower than the quarterly levels of the 5-year average (-2.3%), 10-year average (-3.3%), and 15-year average (-4.7%), it is also the second largest decline in quarterly EPS estimates since the second quarter of 2020 (-37.0%).</p><p>Due to the higher number of companies issuing negative EPS guidance and downward revisions to earnings estimates, the expected earnings (year-over-year) growth rate for the second quarter of 2022 is now beginning to decline relative to the second quarter. As of today, according to calculations, second-quarter earnings reported by S&P 500 companies are expected to increase by 4.3% year-on-year, compared with the 5.9% forecast on March 31. If the actual earnings growth rate for the second quarter was set at 4.3% annualized, this would be the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2020 (3.8%).</p><p>At present, some companies have begun to lower their performance expectations. For example,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">Cisco</a>And other companies have announced bleak financial guidance in recent weeks. Wherein,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Retailers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TGT\">Target</a>In the past four weeks, the second quarter EPS forecast has been lowered the most.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3513f8995dafcafdcaee41497c630a8\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Microsoft said that due to negative foreign exchange factors, it lowered the company's revenue and profit outlook for the fourth quarter. Microsoft said it expects foreign exchange to bring in a $460 million impact, lowering its earnings-per-share guidance range to between $2.24-$2.32, compared with its previous expectation of $2.28-$2.35. In addition, the company also lowered its revenue guidance range to between US $51.94 billion and US $52.74 billion, compared with the previous expectation of US $52.4 billion and US $53.2 billion.</p><p>On June 7, Target warned investors that the company's profits would be hit in the short term as it cuts unwanted items, cancels orders, and takes aggressive steps to eliminate additional inventory in response to a wave of deep discounts or clearance. Target expects operating margins to be around 2% in the second quarter.</p><p>Second, retail giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>Also lowered profit forecasts; The company said it expects fiscal 2023 earnings per share to decline by about 1% compared to mid-single-digit growth it previously expected. Gap (GPS.US) also significantly lowered its full-year guidance for fiscal year 2022 when it announced its first-quarter results; Revenue is expected to show a low-to-mid single-digit decline compared to the prior year, while EPS under non-GAAP is expected to be in the $0.30-$0.60 range, with analysts' consensus estimate of $1.30 at the high end of the range.</p><p>Cisco lowered its full-year earnings forecast to $3.29 to $3.37 per share from its previous estimate of $3.41 to $3.46. Analysts had expected the company to earn $3.44 per share for the full year. According to the latest guidance, full-year revenue growth will be 2% to 3%, lower than the previous expectation of 5.5% to 6.5%. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of fiscal '22, Cisco expects revenue to decline 1% to 5.5% and adjusted earnings per share of 76 cents to 84 cents.</p><p>However, some investors and companies still firmly believe that the situation in U.S. stocks will improve and have raised their profit forecasts for 2022 in the past month. The sectors whose earnings forecasts for the S&P 500 Index have been raised on average in the second quarter include energy, industry, materials, real estate, IT, and healthcare.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4f23e67c8c115c726514f47e669b085\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Earlier, Albemarle, the world's largest lithium producer, raised its guidance for fiscal 2022 for the second time. Albemarle currently expects full-year sales of US $5.8 billion to US $6.2 billion in 2022, higher than the previous forecast of US $5.2 billion to US $5.6 billion. Among them, the adjusted EBITDA of the lithium business is expected to increase by about 300% year-on-year, higher than previously expected.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/M\">Macy's</a>When announcing its first-quarter results, it reiterated that it expects sales in 2022 to be US $24.46 billion to US $24.7 billion, flat to 1.0% year-on-year. Taking into account share repurchases in the first quarter of 2022 and improved credit card revenue expectations, the company raised its 2022 adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance range to $4.53-$4.95, compared with the previous guidance range of $4.13-$4.52.</p><p>However, some investors and analysts have warned that in the upcoming corporate earnings season, some corporate earnings estimates look too optimistic given the rising recession risk.</p><p>Gloomy performance outlook puts pressure on U.S. stocks</p><p>Historically, corporate revenues during recessions tend to fall about 15% year-over-year in real terms, according to Evercore. This means that the S&P 500's total earnings per share could fall from the $227 expected this year to around $192 in 2023. If the current expected earnings multiple of the S&P 500 is left unchanged, the index will drop to around 3,000 points by the end of the year.</p><p>Many investment banks are pessimistic about the impact of this earnings season on the trend of U.S. stocks.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Said there are already signs that earnings forecasts will be slashed in the coming months. According to its view on the earnings of U.S. stocks, the reasonable point of the S&P 500 index is 3400-3500 points, which is about 11% lower than the current level. \"The bear market is not over unless earnings estimates are lowered to a more reasonable level, or valuations reflect this risk,\" the bank said.</p><p>Absolute Strategic Research surveyed the expectations of investors with a total of $5.2 trillion in assets under management. The likelihood of a rise in global corporate earnings a year from now has fallen to 37%, the lowest level since late 2015, according to the company's data. The survey also found that there is a 53% chance that equity investments will return more than bonds in the next 12 months, a record low.</p><p>Barron's pointed out that the situation of the second quarter earnings season will greatly affect the models used by analysts when making forecasts in the third and fourth quarters. At present, the general expectation is that the profits in the second and third quarters will increase by 11% to 13%. However, if the second quarter earnings performance is poor, or the management lowers the future performance guidance, this may mean that analysts will lower their profit forecasts for the next two quarters, which will put more pressure on the stock market, which has fallen by 21% so far this year.</p><p>Led by Jamie Fahy<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>Strategists issued a note saying that while global stocks struggled through the first half of 2022, the pain may not be over yet. Investors are already plagued by runaway inflation and the potential impact of tightening policies aimed at controlling inflation, and the prospect of a cut in corporate earnings expectations will be the latest headwind for investors, the bank's strategists wrote in a note. The bank added that resilient corporate earnings have been one of the few factors supporting stocks this year, so any signs of cracks will worry investors, given lower valuations have driven stocks to rebound in recent weeks.</p><p>Francesco Cudrano, an adviser at Simplify Partners, said: \"Corporate earnings are rarely revised downward, and people are still overly optimistic. That's why we expect another revision when we report results, and with this volatility, there is a real risk of getting hit.\" Cudrano said Simplify Partners has been cutting its equity exposure and adding cash, expecting a 15-20% drop in the stock market.</p><p>Eric Johnston, head of equity derivatives and cross-assets at Cantor Fitzgerald, said: \"Negative guidance is likely at any time now. Revenue and profit margins are at risk. We don't think the Fed will stop its rate hike for at least four months, even if economic growth slows down, even if the stock market is sharply lower.\"</p><p>conclusion</p><p>Concerns about corporate performance after the bad mouth of the U.S. economy and a sharp rate hike by the Federal Reserve may support the view that stocks are still overvalued even after this year's sharp decline. According to Barclays, the stock market may struggle to find a bottom until profit expectations are cut down. This is because high profit expectations \"perceptually compress\" company valuations to levels that could mislead investors.</p><p>All in all, at a time when the risk of the U.S. economy falling into recession is gradually increasing, it is difficult to reproduce last year's frenzied performance. Under the current environment, the performance prospects of U.S. stock companies are not very optimistic. At present, U.S. stock investors can only expect the upcoming earnings season. Pass slowly. This is another red flag for anyone looking to buy stocks at current levels.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the second quarter earnings season \"more bad luck\"? The \"big test\" of US stocks is coming!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the second quarter earnings season \"more bad luck\"? The \"big test\" of US stocks is coming!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-11 15:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Since hitting a record high in January, U.S. stocks have evaporated more than $1 trillion and are still stuck in a bear market. The U.S. stock earnings season will kick off in the second quarter of this week, and the trend of U.S. stocks may be affected.</p><p>On the one hand, companies are increasingly worried about the arrival of an economic recession, and many companies have lowered their performance guidance given that the better economic situation may not last. On the other hand, some companies still firmly believe that the situation of U.S. stocks will improve, and have raised their profit forecasts for 2022 in the past month.</p><p>Stock valuations have fallen below historical averages, which could attract dip-hunting investors. However, some investors and analysts have warned that the upcoming earnings season may lead to another sharp drop in global stock prices, as corporate earnings estimates are not optimistic due to rising recession risks.</p><p>Many companies cut performance guidance</p><p>The Federal Reserve's sharp rate hike has brought new losses to companies, and sharp rate hike may hit demand, increasing the possibility of an economic recession and putting more pressure on U.S. stock performance guidance. Businesses are increasingly worried about the coming of an economic recession, and many have lowered their performance guidance given that the better economic situation may not last.</p><p>Currently, 103 companies in the S&P Index have issued 2022 Q2 earnings per share (EPS) guidance. Of these 103 companies, 72 companies issued negative EPS guidance and 31 companies issued positive EPS guidance. This is the largest number of S&P 500 companies issuing negative quarterly EPS guidance since the fourth quarter of 2019 (73 companies). Currently, the proportion of companies in the S&P 500 issuing negative EPS guidance for the second quarter of 2022 is 70% (72 of 103 companies), which is higher than the 5-year average of 60% and the 10-year average of 67%.</p><p>As of now, 245 companies in the S&P Index have issued full-year 2022 EPS guidance. Of these 245 companies, 136 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 109 companies have issued positive EPS guidance. The percentage of companies that issued negative EPS guidance was 56% (136 out of 245).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9feb54c7b999af6434b90d243d0ecaac\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If a company provides guidance (or the midpoint of range guidance) that is lower than the average EPS the day before the guidance was issued, the guidance is listed as negative. If the company provides guidance (or the midpoint of the guidance range) that is higher than the average EPS the day before the guidance was issued, the guidance is classified as positive.</p><p>Overall, analysts have generally lowered their earnings estimates for the second quarter of 2022 in terms of revisions to earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies. Analysts and businesses have lowered their earnings estimates for the second quarter so far. The S&P 500 is expected to record its lowest earnings growth since the fourth quarter of 2020.</p><p>On a per share basis, estimated earnings for the second quarter are down 0.9% since March 31. While this decline is lower than the quarterly levels of the 5-year average (-2.3%), 10-year average (-3.3%), and 15-year average (-4.7%), it is also the second largest decline in quarterly EPS estimates since the second quarter of 2020 (-37.0%).</p><p>Due to the higher number of companies issuing negative EPS guidance and downward revisions to earnings estimates, the expected earnings (year-over-year) growth rate for the second quarter of 2022 is now beginning to decline relative to the second quarter. As of today, according to calculations, second-quarter earnings reported by S&P 500 companies are expected to increase by 4.3% year-on-year, compared with the 5.9% forecast on March 31. If the actual earnings growth rate for the second quarter was set at 4.3% annualized, this would be the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2020 (3.8%).</p><p>At present, some companies have begun to lower their performance expectations. For example,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">Cisco</a>And other companies have announced bleak financial guidance in recent weeks. Wherein,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Retailers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TGT\">Target</a>In the past four weeks, the second quarter EPS forecast has been lowered the most.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3513f8995dafcafdcaee41497c630a8\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Microsoft said that due to negative foreign exchange factors, it lowered the company's revenue and profit outlook for the fourth quarter. Microsoft said it expects foreign exchange to bring in a $460 million impact, lowering its earnings-per-share guidance range to between $2.24-$2.32, compared with its previous expectation of $2.28-$2.35. In addition, the company also lowered its revenue guidance range to between US $51.94 billion and US $52.74 billion, compared with the previous expectation of US $52.4 billion and US $53.2 billion.</p><p>On June 7, Target warned investors that the company's profits would be hit in the short term as it cuts unwanted items, cancels orders, and takes aggressive steps to eliminate additional inventory in response to a wave of deep discounts or clearance. Target expects operating margins to be around 2% in the second quarter.</p><p>Second, retail giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>Also lowered profit forecasts; The company said it expects fiscal 2023 earnings per share to decline by about 1% compared to mid-single-digit growth it previously expected. Gap (GPS.US) also significantly lowered its full-year guidance for fiscal year 2022 when it announced its first-quarter results; Revenue is expected to show a low-to-mid single-digit decline compared to the prior year, while EPS under non-GAAP is expected to be in the $0.30-$0.60 range, with analysts' consensus estimate of $1.30 at the high end of the range.</p><p>Cisco lowered its full-year earnings forecast to $3.29 to $3.37 per share from its previous estimate of $3.41 to $3.46. Analysts had expected the company to earn $3.44 per share for the full year. According to the latest guidance, full-year revenue growth will be 2% to 3%, lower than the previous expectation of 5.5% to 6.5%. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of fiscal '22, Cisco expects revenue to decline 1% to 5.5% and adjusted earnings per share of 76 cents to 84 cents.</p><p>However, some investors and companies still firmly believe that the situation in U.S. stocks will improve and have raised their profit forecasts for 2022 in the past month. The sectors whose earnings forecasts for the S&P 500 Index have been raised on average in the second quarter include energy, industry, materials, real estate, IT, and healthcare.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4f23e67c8c115c726514f47e669b085\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Earlier, Albemarle, the world's largest lithium producer, raised its guidance for fiscal 2022 for the second time. Albemarle currently expects full-year sales of US $5.8 billion to US $6.2 billion in 2022, higher than the previous forecast of US $5.2 billion to US $5.6 billion. Among them, the adjusted EBITDA of the lithium business is expected to increase by about 300% year-on-year, higher than previously expected.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/M\">Macy's</a>When announcing its first-quarter results, it reiterated that it expects sales in 2022 to be US $24.46 billion to US $24.7 billion, flat to 1.0% year-on-year. Taking into account share repurchases in the first quarter of 2022 and improved credit card revenue expectations, the company raised its 2022 adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance range to $4.53-$4.95, compared with the previous guidance range of $4.13-$4.52.</p><p>However, some investors and analysts have warned that in the upcoming corporate earnings season, some corporate earnings estimates look too optimistic given the rising recession risk.</p><p>Gloomy performance outlook puts pressure on U.S. stocks</p><p>Historically, corporate revenues during recessions tend to fall about 15% year-over-year in real terms, according to Evercore. This means that the S&P 500's total earnings per share could fall from the $227 expected this year to around $192 in 2023. If the current expected earnings multiple of the S&P 500 is left unchanged, the index will drop to around 3,000 points by the end of the year.</p><p>Many investment banks are pessimistic about the impact of this earnings season on the trend of U.S. stocks.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Said there are already signs that earnings forecasts will be slashed in the coming months. According to its view on the earnings of U.S. stocks, the reasonable point of the S&P 500 index is 3400-3500 points, which is about 11% lower than the current level. \"The bear market is not over unless earnings estimates are lowered to a more reasonable level, or valuations reflect this risk,\" the bank said.</p><p>Absolute Strategic Research surveyed the expectations of investors with a total of $5.2 trillion in assets under management. The likelihood of a rise in global corporate earnings a year from now has fallen to 37%, the lowest level since late 2015, according to the company's data. The survey also found that there is a 53% chance that equity investments will return more than bonds in the next 12 months, a record low.</p><p>Barron's pointed out that the situation of the second quarter earnings season will greatly affect the models used by analysts when making forecasts in the third and fourth quarters. At present, the general expectation is that the profits in the second and third quarters will increase by 11% to 13%. However, if the second quarter earnings performance is poor, or the management lowers the future performance guidance, this may mean that analysts will lower their profit forecasts for the next two quarters, which will put more pressure on the stock market, which has fallen by 21% so far this year.</p><p>Led by Jamie Fahy<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>Strategists issued a note saying that while global stocks struggled through the first half of 2022, the pain may not be over yet. Investors are already plagued by runaway inflation and the potential impact of tightening policies aimed at controlling inflation, and the prospect of a cut in corporate earnings expectations will be the latest headwind for investors, the bank's strategists wrote in a note. The bank added that resilient corporate earnings have been one of the few factors supporting stocks this year, so any signs of cracks will worry investors, given lower valuations have driven stocks to rebound in recent weeks.</p><p>Francesco Cudrano, an adviser at Simplify Partners, said: \"Corporate earnings are rarely revised downward, and people are still overly optimistic. That's why we expect another revision when we report results, and with this volatility, there is a real risk of getting hit.\" Cudrano said Simplify Partners has been cutting its equity exposure and adding cash, expecting a 15-20% drop in the stock market.</p><p>Eric Johnston, head of equity derivatives and cross-assets at Cantor Fitzgerald, said: \"Negative guidance is likely at any time now. Revenue and profit margins are at risk. We don't think the Fed will stop its rate hike for at least four months, even if economic growth slows down, even if the stock market is sharply lower.\"</p><p>conclusion</p><p>Concerns about corporate performance after the bad mouth of the U.S. economy and a sharp rate hike by the Federal Reserve may support the view that stocks are still overvalued even after this year's sharp decline. According to Barclays, the stock market may struggle to find a bottom until profit expectations are cut down. This is because high profit expectations \"perceptually compress\" company valuations to levels that could mislead investors.</p><p>All in all, at a time when the risk of the U.S. economy falling into recession is gradually increasing, it is difficult to reproduce last year's frenzied performance. Under the current environment, the performance prospects of U.S. stock companies are not very optimistic. At present, U.S. stock investors can only expect the upcoming earnings season. Pass slowly. This is another red flag for anyone looking to buy stocks at current levels.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/752714.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/752714.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2250981695","content_text":"自1月触及纪录高位以来，美股已蒸发逾万亿美元，目前仍陷于熊市。本周二季度美股财报季将拉开序幕，美股走势或将受到影响。一方面，企业越来越担心经济衰退的到来，鉴于较好的经济形势可能不会持续下去，许多企业已下调业绩指引。而另一方面，也有一些企业仍坚信美股的情况会出现改善，并在过去一个月上调了2022年的盈利预测。股票估值已经跌破历史平均水平，这可能会吸引逢低买入的投资者。但是，一些投资者和分析师警告称，即将到来的财报季可能导致全球股价再度大幅下跌，因衰退风险不断加大，企业盈利预估不乐观。众多企业下调业绩指引美联储大幅加息给企业带来了新的损失，大幅加息可能会打击需求，增加了经济衰退的可能性，给美股业绩指引带来了更大的压力。企业越来越担心经济衰退的到来，鉴于较好的经济形势可能不会持续下去，许多企业已下调了业绩指引。目前，标普指数中有103家公司已经发布了2022年Q2每股收益(EPS)指引。在这103家公司中，72家公司发布了负面EPS指引，31家公司发布了正面EPS指引。这是自2019年第四季度(73家)以来，标普500指数企业中发布季度EPS负面指引企业数量最多的一次。目前，标普500指数中发布2022年第二季度负面EPS指引的公司比例为70%(103家公司中有72家)，高于60%的5年平均水平和67%的10年平均水平。截至目前，标普指数中有245家公司已经发布了2022年全年EPS指引。在这245家公司中，136家公司发布了负面EPS指引，109家公司发布了正面EPS指引。发布负面EPS指引的公司比例为56%(245家公司中的136家)。如果一家公司提供的指引(或区间指引的中点)低于该指引发布前一天的平均EPS，则该指引被列为负面指引。如果该公司提供的指引(或指引区间的中点)高于该指引发布前一天的平均EPS，则该指引被归为正面指引。总体上而言，在对标普500指数成份股公司盈利预期的修正方面，分析师总体下调了2022年第二季度的盈利预期。迄今为止，分析师和企业已经下调了第二季度的盈利预期。标普500指数预计将录得自2020年第四季度以来最低的盈利增长。按每股计算，自3月31日以来，第二季度预期收益下降了0.9%。虽然这一降幅低于5年平均水平(-2.3%)、10年平均水平(-3.3%)和15年平均水平(-4.7%)的季度水平，但也是自2020年第二季度(-37.0%)以来季度每股收益预期的第二大降幅。由于发布负面EPS指引的公司数量增多，以及对盈利预期的向下修正，2022年第二季度的预期盈利(同比)增长率现在相对于第二季度开始有所下降。截至今日，根据计算，标普500指数成分公司将公布的二季度盈利预计将同比增长4.3%，而3月31日的预期为5.9%。如果将二季度的实际盈利年化增长率定为4.3%，这将是自2020年第四季度(3.8%)以来的最低水平。目前已有一些企业开始下调业绩预期。例如，微软和思科等公司近几周都宣布了黯淡的财务指引。其中，波音、零售商塔吉特在过去四周中二季度EPS预期被下调的幅度居前。微软表示，受外汇负面因素影响，下调公司第四财季的营收和盈利前景。微软表示，预计外汇将带来4.6亿美元的影响，将每股收益指引区间下调至2.24-2.32美元之间，此前预期为2.28-2.35美元。另外，该公司还下调营收指引区间至519.4亿-527.4亿美元之间，此前预期为524亿-532亿美元。6月7日，塔吉特警告投资者称，公司的利润将在短期内受到冲击，因为该公司将削减不需要的品项，取消订单，并采取积极措施消除额外库存，以应对一波大幅打折或清仓的商品潮。塔吉特预计第二季度的营业利润率将在2%左右。其次，零售巨头沃尔玛也下调了利润预期;该公司表示，预计与此前预期的中个位数增长相比，预期2023财年每股收益将下降约 1%。Gap(GPS.US)也在公布一季度业绩时大幅下调2022财年全年指引;与上年相比，预计营收将出现中低单位数下降，而在非公认会计准则下的每股收益预计将在0.30-0.60美元之间，分析师普遍预期区间高端为1.30美元。思科将其全年收益预期从此前的每股3.41美元至3.46美元下调至3.29美元至3.37美元。分析师此前预计该公司全年每股收益为3.44美元。按最新的指引计算，全年营收增长将为2%至3%，低于此前5.5%至6.5%的预期。展望22财年的第四季度，思科预计营收将下降1%至5.5%，调整后每股收益为76美分至84美分。不过，也有一些投资者和企业仍坚信美股的情况会出现改善，在过去一个月上调了2022年的盈利预测。在标普500指数盈利预期二季度平均已上调的板块依次包括能源、工业、材料、房地产、IT、医疗保健。此前，全球最大的锂生产商美国雅宝第二次上调了其2022财年业绩指引。美国雅宝目前预计2022年全年的销售额为58亿-62亿美元，高于此前预期的52亿-56亿美元。其中，锂业务调整后EBITDA预计同比增长约300%，高于此前预期。梅西百货在公布一季度业绩时重申，预计2022年销售额为244.6亿至247亿美元，同比持平至增长1.0%。考虑到2022年第一季度的股票回购，以及信用卡收入预期的改善，公司将2022年调整后摊薄每股收益指引区间上调至4.53-4.95美元，此前的指引区间为4.13-4.52美元。但是，一些投资者和分析师警告称，即将到来的企业财报季，鉴于衰退风险不断加大，一些企业盈利预估看起来过于乐观。黯淡业绩前景令美股承压根据Evercore的数据，从历史上看，经济衰退期间的企业实际收入往往同比下降约15%。这意味着标普500指数的总每股收益可能会从今年预期的227美元降至2023年的192美元左右。如果保持标普500指数当前的预期盈利倍数不变，到今年年底该指数将降至3000点左右。众多投行对此次财报季对美股的走势影响都较为悲观。摩根士丹利表示，已经有迹象显示，未来几个月的盈利预期将被大幅下调。根据其对美股财报盈利的看法，标普500指数的合理点位在3400-3500点，比当前水平低约11%。该行表示：“除非盈利预期下调至更合理的水平，或估值反映出这种风险，否则熊市还没有结束。”Absolute Strategy Research对总管理着5.2万亿美元资产的投资者的预期进行了调查。该公司的数据显示，一年后全球企业盈利上升的可能性已降至37%，为2015年底以来的最低水平。该调查还发现，未来12个月股票投资回报率超过债券的可能性为53%，创下历史新低。巴伦周刊指出，二季度财报季的情况将在很大程度上影响第三和第四季度分析师在做预测时使用的模型，目前的普遍预期是二、三季度利润都会出现11%到13%的增长，但如果二季度财报表现不佳，或管理层下调未来业绩指引，这可能意味着分析师将下调未来两个季度的利润预期，而这将给今年迄今已经下跌了21%的股市带来更多压力。以Jamie Fahy为首的花旗策略师发表报告表示，尽管全球股市艰难度过了2022年上半年，但痛苦可能尚未结束。该行策略师在报告中写道，投资者已经被失控的通胀和旨在控制通胀的紧缩政策的潜在影响所困扰，而企业盈利预期被下调的前景将是投资者面临的最新阻力。该行补充道，具备弹性的企业盈利是今年为数不多支撑股市的因素之一，因此，考虑到较低的估值推动股市在近几周反弹，任何出现裂痕的迹象都会令投资者感到担忧。Simplify Partners顾问Francesco Cudrano表示：“企业盈利很少向下修正，人们仍然过于乐观。这就是为什么我们预计在公布业绩时将出现另一次修正，而且在这种波动下，真的有遭受打击的风险。”Cudrano表示，Simplify Partners一直在削减股票敞口，增加现金，预计股市将下跌15-20%。Cantor Fitzgerald股票衍生品和交叉资产主管Eric Johnston称:“现在任何时候都可能出现负面指引。收入和利润率都面临风险。我们认为美联储至少在四个月内不会停止加息，即使经济成长放缓，即使股市大幅走低。”结论在美国经济唱衰声不断、美联储大幅加息后，对企业业绩的担忧可能会支持这样一种观点，即即使在今年大幅下跌之后，股市估值仍过高。根据巴克莱的说法，在利润预期被调低之前，股市可能很难找到底部。这是因为高利润预期会“感观上压缩”公司估值，使其达到可能误导投资者的水平。总而言之，在美国经济陷入衰退的风险渐渐变大之际，去年狂热的业绩很难再现，在当前环境下，美股企业的业绩前景不太乐观，目前美股投资者只能期望即将到来的财报季平缓渡过。对于任何想以当前水平购买股票的人来说，这是另一个危险信号。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":525,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9045428409,"gmtCreate":1656644326401,"gmtModify":1676535870443,"author":{"id":"3587038191942835","authorId":"3587038191942835","name":"康康的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a7001836b41194d4d68114ab8afcfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587038191942835","idStr":"3587038191942835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9045428409","repostId":"1197380978","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":339,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9046155656,"gmtCreate":1656317171675,"gmtModify":1676535805100,"author":{"id":"3587038191942835","authorId":"3587038191942835","name":"康康的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a7001836b41194d4d68114ab8afcfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587038191942835","idStr":"3587038191942835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9046155656","repostId":"1116197226","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116197226","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1656295281,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1116197226?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-27 10:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The economy is weak and rate hike is expected to fall. Is the rebound of U.S. stocks serious?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116197226","media":"第一财经","summary":"上周美股基金净流入超百亿，创3个月新高。经历了6月初开始的新一轮抛售，上周美股企稳反弹，三大股指涨幅均超过5%。在经济增长放缓迹象日益明显，大宗商品价格有所调整的背景下，投资者开始重新评估美联储激进加","content":"<p><div>Last week, the net inflow of U.S. stock funds exceeded 10 billion, hitting a three-month high. After a new round of selling that began in early June, U.S. stocks stabilized and rebounded last week, with the three major stock indexes all rising by more than 5%. Against the backdrop of increasingly obvious signs of economic growth slowing and adjustments in commodity prices, investors are beginning to reassess expectations of aggressive rate hike by the Federal Reserve. However, last Friday's Dayang line did not let institutions relax their vigilance. Although the oversold rebound may continue for some time, the risk factors that plague the economy and investor sentiment have not been completely lifted, and the market may still face the test of volatility in the second half of the year. Rate hike is expected to cool down. Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101455765.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The economy is weak and rate hike is expected to fall. Is the rebound of U.S. stocks serious?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe economy is weak and rate hike is expected to fall. Is the rebound of U.S. stocks serious?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-27 10:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Last week, the net inflow of U.S. stock funds exceeded 10 billion, hitting a three-month high. After a new round of selling that began in early June, U.S. stocks stabilized and rebounded last week, with the three major stock indexes all rising by more than 5%. Against the backdrop of increasingly obvious signs of economic growth slowing and adjustments in commodity prices, investors are beginning to reassess expectations of aggressive rate hike by the Federal Reserve. However, last Friday's Dayang line did not let institutions relax their vigilance. Although the oversold rebound may continue for some time, the risk factors that plague the economy and investor sentiment have not been completely lifted, and the market may still face the test of volatility in the second half of the year. Rate hike is expected to cool down. Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101455765.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101455765.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101455765.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116197226","content_text":"上周美股基金净流入超百亿，创3个月新高。经历了6月初开始的新一轮抛售，上周美股企稳反弹，三大股指涨幅均超过5%。在经济增长放缓迹象日益明显，大宗商品价格有所调整的背景下，投资者开始重新评估美联储激进加息的预期。不过上周五的大阳线并未让机构放松警惕，虽然超跌反弹仍可能持续一段时间，但困扰经济和投资者情绪的风险因素并未完全解除，下半年市场也许依然面临波动性考验。加息预期有所降温上周美联储主席鲍威尔在出席国会听证会时重申了抑制通胀的立场，并提及了衰退的可能性。与之前的表态类似，他认为实现软着陆并不容易。考虑到地缘政治和供应链的困境，解决这些问题在某种程度上取决于诸多无法控制的因素。过去一周美国公布的经济数据继续反映出动能下降的风险。美国6月综合采购经理人指数PMI降至五个月低位，其中制造业PMI进一步逼近荣枯分界线，显示出供应链瓶颈、劳动力紧缺等问题持续扰动企业产能和消费需求。国际货币基金组织IMF在对美国经济政策的年度评估中，下调2022年美国国内生产总值（GDP）增速预期至2.9%，低于4月份的3.7%，2023年预测从2.3%下调至1.7%，2024年将跌至0.8%。美联储政策对美国经济冲击的担忧是近期风险资产出现剧烈波动的重要因素。牛津经济研究院高级经济学家施瓦茨（BobSchwartz）在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，衰退正在逐步取代通胀成为焦点。目前经济疲软迹象正在加剧这种担忧，抵押贷款利率上升冲击了房地产市场，制造业和服务业扩张放缓，科技行业的工作机会正在减少。对经济前景的担忧可以从美债市场的走势上看出端倪，本周各期限美债收益率全线回落，基准10年期美债收益率下跌11.3个基点至3.125%。消费者情绪调查表现不佳，6月密歇根消费者信心指数连续创历史新低。47%的受访者指责高物价增长侵蚀了生活水平。根据CME的FedWatch工具，投资者现在预计美联储基金利率将在12月达到3.25%~3.50%，从一周前下调25个基点。此外，投资者现在预计，美联储将在大约一年后开始降息，这也早于此前美联储决议的最新预估。施瓦茨向记者表示，解决通胀的最好办法之一就是高价本身。这在一些商品上得到了验证，价格对需求预期的影响正在使得包括原油、铜、钢铁等工业品价格出现回落。不过从目前的情况看，由于住房和服务价格依然处于上升压力下，美联储抗击通胀的压力并未得到明显缓解。随着经济增速放缓及需求面影响逐渐释放，美联储将根据通胀走向调整政策力度。施瓦茨预计，考虑到美联储抗击通胀的决心，7月加息75个基点的压力犹存，如果通胀能够在四季度出现明显减速迹象，随着美联储政策利率接近中性水平，届时加息幅度可能会逐步降至25个基点。他告诉记者，美联储积极主动的加息确实增加了硬着陆的可能性， 尤其是在2023年，现在看经济衰退言之尚早且并非不可避免，因为鲍威尔近期也强调了政策的灵活性。反弹先看两周？美股上周五强势结束了周线三连阴的调整，各行业板块迎来了久违的反弹。从市场表现看，金融板块受益于最新公布的美联储压力测试结果，美债收益率高位回落则提振了成长股的吸引力。事实上，过去几天市场回暖与通胀见顶及美联储政策预期有关。Baird市场策略师安东内利（Mike Antonelli）表示，“我们已经看到大宗商品价格连续两周下跌，同时美联储基金期货定价在2023年降息。现在真正阻碍市场的是无休止的加息，如果我们找到了利率重点，那么股市可以在这里趋稳回升。”资金开始抄底回流。根据财经数据提供商Refinitiv-Lipper的统计，截至22日当周，美股基金录得113.8亿美元的净流入，创3月23日以来新高。资金风格上，美国大盘股基金录得151.9亿美元的资金流入，为2020年7月以来的最大规模，显示投资者在寻找超卖标的时并不倾向于激进的策略。衍生品市场上，多头也正在卷土重来。 嘉信理财交易数据显示，上周VIX看涨期权和看跌期权未平仓量分别环比增长4.3%和10.4%，与此同时，标普500指数看涨期权和看跌期权未平仓量分别环比增长4.1%和1.7%。两者都显示，不少资金在押注短期美股将继续震荡回升。摩根大通策略师科拉诺维奇（Mark Kolanovic）发布报告称，由于市场超卖和现金余额接近创纪录水平，下周的月度和季度投资组合再平衡可能会推动股市上涨7%左右，此前一季度末和5月底出现过类似的行情。“今年由于市场波动较大，流动性有限，再平衡的影响会更明显。”不过对于未来股指反弹的持续性，悲观的观点并不少见。CFRA Research 首席投资策略师斯托瓦尔（SamStovall）认为，关于美国经济可能放缓的担忧可能会减弱美联储的鹰派作风，再加上大宗商品价格和债券收益率下降，这些都是投资者看好反弹的原因，但这里并不是最后的底部。“一旦与中期选举相关的不确定性结束，第四季度开始市场有望迎来真正机会。”高盛市场交易员弗雷利（Matt Fleury）给出了两周时间，300亿美国养老金季末入市令他短期“战术性”看涨美股，反弹可能持续到7月初，但中期走势依然不容乐观，维持看空的观点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":550,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9056176646,"gmtCreate":1654992301885,"gmtModify":1676535542227,"author":{"id":"3587038191942835","authorId":"3587038191942835","name":"康康的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a7001836b41194d4d68114ab8afcfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587038191942835","idStr":"3587038191942835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9056176646","repostId":"2242581180","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2242581180","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1654912872,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2242581180?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-11 10:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is Powell responsible for inflation? Biden really \"pushed the pot\" to the Fed","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2242581180","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：美国通胀见顶希望破灭，拜登政府迅速表态，给了美联储足够的空间。鲍威尔抗击通胀的压力越来越大了。美国5月CPI再度爆表，一举浇灭了通胀见顶的希望。数据公布后，拜登政府迅速表态，话里话外都将重担甩给","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: Hopes of peaking inflation in the United States were dashed, and the Biden administration quickly expressed its position, giving the Fed enough room. The pressure on Powell to fight inflation is increasing. The U.S. CPI exploded again in May, dousing hopes of peaking inflation in one fell swoop. After the data was released, the Biden administration quickly expressed its position, putting the burden on the Federal Reserve both inside and outside the words.</p><p>According to the data released on Friday, the CPI of the United States accelerated by 8.6% year-on-year in May. After the growth dropped slightly in April, it failed to continue to slow down. Instead, it set a new refresh for the highest growth rate in 40 years set in March, which greatly surprised the market.</p><p>After the data was released, U.S. Treasury Bond yields rose across the board, with the 10-year U.S. bond yield rising above 3.10% for the first time in a month. The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed down for three consecutive days. The Nasdaq closed down 3.52%, the S&P closed down 2.91%, and the Dow closed down 2.73%, all of which were the largest closing declines since May 18 for two consecutive days.</p><p>In the face of high inflation, U.S. consumer confidence collapsed. Data released Friday showed the University of Michigan consumer confidence index fell to its lowest level since 1980.</p><p>Record gasoline prices, coupled with stubbornly high food and housing costs, are increasing the cost of living pressure on Americans,<b>This forces the Federal Reserve to face the pressure of faster rate hike, and also brings more political problems to the White House and Democrats. After all, U.S. inflation has only begun to \"take off\" since Biden took office.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84c06e35247a75a5fd811a0e6aa93756\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>(Image credit: Zerohedge)</p><p><h2>Biden Administration: Gave the Fed plenty of room</h2>U.S. President Joe Biden said in a statement after Friday's data, \"Today's report highlights why I have made fighting inflation my top economic priority... while seeing key'core 'inflation slowing is good, but it's not falling as quickly and dramatically as we have to see.\"</p><p>Biden said the U.S. needs to \"do more quickly to lower prices\" and called on Congress to pass legislation to reduce energy, prescription drug and shipping costs.</p><p>In the face of accumulating livelihood problems, Biden's approval rating has fallen to a new low, and the White House is trying to spread the pressure by constantly emphasizing the role of the Federal Reserve.</p><p>As early as the end of last month, Biden \"blamed\" the Fed for fighting inflation. The day before meeting with Powell, Biden said that the Fed \"shoulders the main responsibility for controlling inflation\" and said that he would not try to influence the Fed's decision-making:</p><p>\"Predecessors have belittled the Fed, and some presidents in the past have tried to inappropriately influence the Fed's decision-making during times of high inflation, and I won't do that.\" The rhetoric repeated after the data was released on Friday.</p><p>National Economic Council Director Brian Deese told the media Friday that today's data underscores what the president has been saying all along-that fighting inflation must be a top economic priority,<b>\"The Fed has the tools it needs, and we're giving it the space it needs.\"</b></p><p>White House economic adviser Cecilia Rouse also mentioned in a media interview that,<b>Biden gave the Fed \"room to do what they need to do.\"</b></p><p>The pressure on the Federal Reserve to control inflation is mounting.</p><p>On Friday, rate hike expectations soared to the highest level in the cycle, with traders expecting the Fed to make a 50 basis point rate hike in June, July and September each, while expectations for subsequent rate cuts also soared. Wall Street began to discuss whether the Federal Reserve would rate hike 75 basis points. Barclays became the first major Wall Street bank to expect a rate hike of 75 basis points. It even expects a rate hike of this magnitude next week. The swap market expects a rate hike of 75 basis points in July. The probability is 50%.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Powell responsible for inflation? Biden really \"pushed the pot\" to the Fed</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Powell responsible for inflation? Biden really \"pushed the pot\" to the Fed\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-11 10:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: Hopes of peaking inflation in the United States were dashed, and the Biden administration quickly expressed its position, giving the Fed enough room. The pressure on Powell to fight inflation is increasing. The U.S. CPI exploded again in May, dousing hopes of peaking inflation in one fell swoop. After the data was released, the Biden administration quickly expressed its position, putting the burden on the Federal Reserve both inside and outside the words.</p><p>According to the data released on Friday, the CPI of the United States accelerated by 8.6% year-on-year in May. After the growth dropped slightly in April, it failed to continue to slow down. Instead, it set a new refresh for the highest growth rate in 40 years set in March, which greatly surprised the market.</p><p>After the data was released, U.S. Treasury Bond yields rose across the board, with the 10-year U.S. bond yield rising above 3.10% for the first time in a month. The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed down for three consecutive days. The Nasdaq closed down 3.52%, the S&P closed down 2.91%, and the Dow closed down 2.73%, all of which were the largest closing declines since May 18 for two consecutive days.</p><p>In the face of high inflation, U.S. consumer confidence collapsed. Data released Friday showed the University of Michigan consumer confidence index fell to its lowest level since 1980.</p><p>Record gasoline prices, coupled with stubbornly high food and housing costs, are increasing the cost of living pressure on Americans,<b>This forces the Federal Reserve to face the pressure of faster rate hike, and also brings more political problems to the White House and Democrats. After all, U.S. inflation has only begun to \"take off\" since Biden took office.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84c06e35247a75a5fd811a0e6aa93756\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>(Image credit: Zerohedge)</p><p><h2>Biden Administration: Gave the Fed plenty of room</h2>U.S. President Joe Biden said in a statement after Friday's data, \"Today's report highlights why I have made fighting inflation my top economic priority... while seeing key'core 'inflation slowing is good, but it's not falling as quickly and dramatically as we have to see.\"</p><p>Biden said the U.S. needs to \"do more quickly to lower prices\" and called on Congress to pass legislation to reduce energy, prescription drug and shipping costs.</p><p>In the face of accumulating livelihood problems, Biden's approval rating has fallen to a new low, and the White House is trying to spread the pressure by constantly emphasizing the role of the Federal Reserve.</p><p>As early as the end of last month, Biden \"blamed\" the Fed for fighting inflation. The day before meeting with Powell, Biden said that the Fed \"shoulders the main responsibility for controlling inflation\" and said that he would not try to influence the Fed's decision-making:</p><p>\"Predecessors have belittled the Fed, and some presidents in the past have tried to inappropriately influence the Fed's decision-making during times of high inflation, and I won't do that.\" The rhetoric repeated after the data was released on Friday.</p><p>National Economic Council Director Brian Deese told the media Friday that today's data underscores what the president has been saying all along-that fighting inflation must be a top economic priority,<b>\"The Fed has the tools it needs, and we're giving it the space it needs.\"</b></p><p>White House economic adviser Cecilia Rouse also mentioned in a media interview that,<b>Biden gave the Fed \"room to do what they need to do.\"</b></p><p>The pressure on the Federal Reserve to control inflation is mounting.</p><p>On Friday, rate hike expectations soared to the highest level in the cycle, with traders expecting the Fed to make a 50 basis point rate hike in June, July and September each, while expectations for subsequent rate cuts also soared. Wall Street began to discuss whether the Federal Reserve would rate hike 75 basis points. Barclays became the first major Wall Street bank to expect a rate hike of 75 basis points. It even expects a rate hike of this magnitude next week. The swap market expects a rate hike of 75 basis points in July. The probability is 50%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3661699\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3661699","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2242581180","content_text":"摘要：美国通胀见顶希望破灭，拜登政府迅速表态，给了美联储足够的空间。鲍威尔抗击通胀的压力越来越大了。美国5月CPI再度爆表，一举浇灭了通胀见顶的希望。数据公布后，拜登政府迅速表态，话里话外都将重担甩给了美联储。周五公布的数据显示，美国5月CPI同比加速增长8.6%，在4月增长略有回落后未能继续增长放缓，反而刷新3月所创的四十年来最高增速，令市场大感意外。数据公布后，美国国债收益率全线拉升，10年期美债收益率一个月来首次升破3.10%。美股三大指数连续三日集体收跌，纳指收跌3.52%，标普收跌2.91%，道指收跌2.73%，均为连续两日创下5月18日以来最大收盘跌幅。在高企的通胀面前，美国消费者信心崩了。周五公布的数据显示，密歇根大学消费者信心指数跌至1980年以来的最低水平。创纪录的汽油价格，再加上居高不下的食品和住房成本，正在加大美国人的生活成本压力，这使得美联储不得不面对更快加息的压力，也给白宫和民主党人带来更多的政治问题，毕竟拜登上任以来，美国通胀才开始“起飞”。（图片来源：Zerohedge）拜登政府：给了美联储足够的空间周五数据公布后，美国总统拜登在一份声明中表示，“今天的报告强调了我为什么把抗击通货膨胀作为我的首要经济任务......虽然看到关键的‘核心’通胀放缓是好事，但它的下降速度没有我们必须看到的那么快、那么剧烈。”拜登表示，美国需要“迅速采取更多措施来降低价格”，并呼吁国会通过降低能源、处方药和运输成本的立法。在不断累积的民生问题面前，拜登的支持率已经跌至新低，白宫正试图通过不断强调美联储的作用来分散压力。早在上个月底，拜登就将抗击通胀的责任“甩锅”给了美联储，在和鲍威尔会面前一天，拜登表示美联储“肩负控制通胀的主要责任”，同时表示，他不会试图影响联储的决策：“前任曾贬低过美联储，过去一些总统试图在通胀高企的时期不恰当地影响美联储的决策，我不会那么做。”周五数据公布后，这套说辞再现。美国国家经济委员会主任布莱恩·迪斯(Brian Deese)周五在媒体上表示，今天的数据突显出总统一直以来的表态——抗击通胀必须成为首要经济任务，“美联储拥有它需要的工具，我们正在给它所需的空间。”美国白宫经济顾问塞西莉亚·劳斯(CeciliaRouse)也在媒体采访中提到，拜登给了美联储“做他们需要做的事情的空间”。美联储控制通胀的压力越来越大。周五，加息预期飙升至本轮周期的最高水平，交易员预计美联储在6月、7月和9月各加息50个基点，同时随后的降息预期也在飙升。华尔街开始讨论美联储会不会加息75个基点，巴克莱成为首家预计加息75个基点的华尔街大行，甚至预计下周就会这一幅度加息，掉期市场预计7月加息75个基点的概率达50%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"DDM":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPY":1,".IXIC":1,"SDOW":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"IVV":0.6,".DJI":1,"SQQQ":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}