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2021-08-15

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2021-08-16

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Hong Kong's Hang Seng slips as China data disappoints

2021-09-19

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US IPO Week Ahead: Software, consumer products, and payment tech lead a diverse 14 IPO week

2021-09-09

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2021-09-03

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reported on Monday citing sources.</p><p>According to the newspaper, bulk purchases of iPhones by foreign shoppers were discovered at some Apple stores with at least <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> transaction involving an individual buying hundreds of handsets at once and the store missed taxing at least one possible reseller.</p><p>Japan allows tourists staying less than six months to buy items without paying the 10% consumption tax, but the exemption does not apply to purchases for the purpose of resale.</p><p>Apple Japan is believed to have filed an amended tax return according to Nikkei. The company did not respond to a Reuters&#39; request for comment on the report.</p><p>The iPhone maker&#39;s Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook visited Japan earlier this month and announced that the company had invested more than $100 billion in its Japanese supply network over the last five years.    ($1 = 132.9000 yen)</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Japan Hit With $98 Mln in Back Taxes- Nikkei</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Japan Hit With $98 Mln in Back Taxes- Nikkei\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-12-27 07:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Dec 26 (Reuters) - Apple Inc&#39;s Japan unit is being charged 13 billion yen  ($97.82 million) in additional taxes by Tokyo for bulk sales of iPhoneS and other Apple devices to foreign tourists that were incorrectly exempted from the consumption tax, Nikkei reported on Monday citing sources.</p><p>According to the newspaper, bulk purchases of iPhones by foreign shoppers were discovered at some Apple stores with at least <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> transaction involving an individual buying hundreds of handsets at once and the store missed taxing at least one possible reseller.</p><p>Japan allows tourists staying less than six months to buy items without paying the 10% consumption tax, but the exemption does not apply to purchases for the purpose of resale.</p><p>Apple Japan is believed to have filed an amended tax return according to Nikkei. The company did not respond to a Reuters&#39; request for comment on the report.</p><p>The iPhone maker&#39;s Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook visited Japan earlier this month and announced that the company had invested more than $100 billion in its Japanese supply network over the last five years.    ($1 = 132.9000 yen)</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4566":"资本集团","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","BK4515":"5G概念","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4507":"流媒体概念","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","BK4574":"无人驾驶","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","BK4573":"虚拟现实","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4501":"段永平概念","AAPL":"苹果","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2294698099","content_text":"Dec 26 (Reuters) - Apple Inc's Japan unit is being charged 13 billion yen  ($97.82 million) in additional taxes by Tokyo for bulk sales of iPhoneS and other Apple devices to foreign tourists that were incorrectly exempted from the consumption tax, Nikkei reported on Monday citing sources.According to the newspaper, bulk purchases of iPhones by foreign shoppers were discovered at some Apple stores with at least one transaction involving an individual buying hundreds of handsets at once and the store missed taxing at least one possible reseller.Japan allows tourists staying less than six months to buy items without paying the 10% consumption tax, but the exemption does not apply to purchases for the purpose of resale.Apple Japan is believed to have filed an amended tax return according to Nikkei. 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depleting cash reserves have forced investors to question the health of EV startups&#39; balance sheets.</p><p>EV startups that looked to revolutionize the industry with pathbreaking products have been struggling as a slowdown in the global economy and difficulty in raising funds took a toll on production schedules and deepened losses.</p><p>Faraday Future&#39;s shares have fallen over 90% this year to well below a dollar apiece and shareholders in a special meeting in November approved a reverse stock split proposal to stay in compliance with Nasdaq&#39;s public listing rules.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Faraday Future Targets April For Ev Deliveries, Sees Fresh Funding</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ 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.h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFaraday Future Targets April For Ev Deliveries, Sees Fresh Funding\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-12-16 10:22</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Dec 15 (Reuters) - EV startup Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc said on Thursday it was in discussions with investors for additional capital of up to $170 million as it sets a target to deliver its FF 91 Futurist vehicle to customers in April 2023.</p><p>The Los Angeles-based company said it expects to start production of its FF 91 Futurist electric car at its manufacturing facility at the end of March 2023.</p><p>Faraday Future, which has been struggling to raise capital to start production, said on Thursday it had received a $30 million binding letter of intent from an existing investor.</p><p>Existing investors are also expected to provide capital to support production of its debut model, according to the company.</p><p>The latest updates from the company&#39;s investor meeting come after Faraday Future announced management changes earlier this week, following a long-drawn probe within the company into allegations of fraud and after resolving a dispute with an investor seeking the removal of two board members.</p><p>In November, the company said it had &#34;substantial doubt&#34; about its ability to continue as a going concern and postponed deliveries of its FF 91 electric car.</p><p>Higher costs for raw materials and depleting cash reserves have forced investors to question the health of EV startups&#39; balance sheets.</p><p>EV startups that looked to revolutionize the industry with pathbreaking products have been struggling as a slowdown in the global economy and difficulty in raising funds took a toll on production schedules and deepened losses.</p><p>Faraday Future&#39;s shares have fallen over 90% this year to well below a dollar apiece and shareholders in a special meeting in November approved a reverse stock split proposal to stay in compliance with Nasdaq&#39;s public listing rules.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4555":"新能源车","BK4099":"汽车制造商"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2291113270","content_text":"Dec 15 (Reuters) - EV startup Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc said on Thursday it was in discussions with investors for additional capital of up to $170 million as it sets a target to deliver its FF 91 Futurist vehicle to customers in April 2023.The Los Angeles-based company said it expects to start production of its FF 91 Futurist electric car at its manufacturing facility at the end of March 2023.Faraday Future, which has been struggling to raise capital to start production, said on Thursday it had received a $30 million binding letter of intent from an existing investor.Existing investors are also expected to provide capital to support production of its debut model, according to the company.The latest updates from the company's investor meeting come after Faraday Future announced management changes earlier this week, following a long-drawn probe within the company into allegations of fraud and after resolving a dispute with an investor seeking the removal of two board members.In November, the company said it had \"substantial doubt\" about its ability to continue as a going concern and postponed deliveries of its FF 91 electric car.Higher costs for raw materials and depleting cash reserves have forced investors to question the health of EV startups' balance sheets.EV startups that looked to revolutionize the industry with pathbreaking products have been struggling as a slowdown in the global economy and difficulty in raising funds took a toll on production schedules and deepened losses.Faraday Future's shares have fallen over 90% this year to well below a dollar apiece and shareholders in a special meeting in November approved a reverse stock split proposal to stay in compliance with Nasdaq's public listing rules.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FFIE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9921571803,"gmtCreate":1671102868102,"gmtModify":1676538490440,"author":{"id":"3586829232043276","authorId":"3586829232043276","name":"clingling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac8266443879ca0b9b00e68416a1244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586829232043276","authorIdStr":"3586829232043276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9921571803","repostId":"1171397342","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9921571327,"gmtCreate":1671102812570,"gmtModify":1676538490424,"author":{"id":"3586829232043276","authorId":"3586829232043276","name":"clingling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac8266443879ca0b9b00e68416a1244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586829232043276","authorIdStr":"3586829232043276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9921571327","repostId":"1171397342","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923547407,"gmtCreate":1670890157109,"gmtModify":1676538453251,"author":{"id":"3586829232043276","authorId":"3586829232043276","name":"clingling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac8266443879ca0b9b00e68416a1244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586829232043276","authorIdStr":"3586829232043276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923547407","repostId":"2291737397","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2291737397","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1670889004,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2291737397?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-13 07:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"JPMorgan’s Trading Desk Sees S&P Rallying Up to 10% on Soft Inflation Data","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2291737397","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"The most likely scenario points to a market gain of 2% to 3%Goldman says short index position is fla","content":"<div>\n<p>The most likely scenario points to a market gain of 2% to 3%Goldman says short index position is flat after fueling gainsWith equity investors defensively positioned, a soft reading in Tuesday’s ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-12/jpmorgan-s-trading-desk-sees-s-p-rallying-up-to-10-on-soft-cpi\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan’s Trading Desk Sees S&P Rallying Up to 10% on Soft Inflation Data</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ 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float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan’s Trading Desk Sees S&P Rallying Up to 10% on Soft Inflation Data\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-13 07:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-12/jpmorgan-s-trading-desk-sees-s-p-rallying-up-to-10-on-soft-cpi><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The most likely scenario points to a market gain of 2% to 3%Goldman says short index position is flat after fueling gainsWith equity investors defensively positioned, a soft reading in Tuesday’s ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-12/jpmorgan-s-trading-desk-sees-s-p-rallying-up-to-10-on-soft-cpi\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-12/jpmorgan-s-trading-desk-sees-s-p-rallying-up-to-10-on-soft-cpi","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2291737397","content_text":"The most likely scenario points to a market gain of 2% to 3%Goldman says short index position is flat after fueling gainsWith equity investors defensively positioned, a soft reading in Tuesday’s consumer price index could spark a powerful rally — with the S&P 500 jumping as much as 10%. That’s the bold forecast from JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s sales and trading desk.In a scenario analysis that maps out the game plan for clients, the team including Andrew Tyler suggests that an annualized inflation print of 6.9% or lower has the potential to lift the equity benchmark between 8% and 10%. Such a move would extend the index’s surge from its October low well past 20%, marking a technical end of the 12-month bear market.While the chances of that happening are rather slim — an event that the JPMorgan teams assigns a 5% probability, the analysis reflects a prevailing view that November’s CPI plays a key role in determining the near-term fate of the market. The data, expected to come in at 7.3% by economists, arrives just one day before the Federal Reserve’s final policy meeting of the year.A cooler reading from the prior month triggered a 5.5% daily surge in the S&P 500.“The logic here is that not only is inflation dissipating, but its pace is accelerating,” Tyler wrote in the note. “This would give increasing confidence in projections of headline inflation falling ~3% in 2023. Further, if inflation is at 3%, irrespective of the labor market conditions, it seems unlikely that the Fed would hold the terminal rate at 5%. Any Fed pivot will rip equities.”The most likely scenario, the team says, is a CPI print between 7.2% to 7.4% where the S&P 500 climbs by 2% to 3%.On the flip side, any near or above the prior reading of 7.7% may spell trouble. The equity index is likely to sink as much as 5% should inflation exceed 7.8%, JPMorgan’s analysis shows.“The CPI print has the potential to dictate market direction and magnitude until earnings kick off in mid-January,” Tyler said. “Equity positioning is less light but remains historically low; investors seem to have a view that this report comes inline or slightly dovish.”With the stock market stuck in a range trading of late, this busy week of market events is billed as the one where the S&P 500 can make or break its recent chart pattern. While the index this month failed to hold above its average price over the past 200 days, a widely watched trend line, it has managed to stay above another key threshold, the 100-day average.To Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Tony Pasquariello, anyone betting on a big share bounce should be aware that the extreme bearish stance that existed during the fall has lessened. Take index futures, where net positions among non-dealers reached a record short of $120 billion in September. That has shrunk after a meaningful unwinding last month, the firm’s data show.“I don’t register this to make a bearish claim — again, the current measure is flat — it’s more to say this magnitude of demand is very unlikely to sustain itself come Q1,” Pasquariello wrote in a note over the weekend.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2883,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923894132,"gmtCreate":1670819411826,"gmtModify":1676538440152,"author":{"id":"3586829232043276","authorId":"3586829232043276","name":"clingling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac8266443879ca0b9b00e68416a1244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586829232043276","authorIdStr":"3586829232043276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923894132","repostId":"1121376009","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121376009","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1670814850,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1121376009?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-12 11:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba, Nio Stocks Drop: Hang Seng Stays Weaker As US Inflation Data, Fed Meet Eyed","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121376009","media":"Benzinga","summary":"ZINGER KEY POINTSShares of Li Auto fell and Xpeng stock lost over 10%.Alibaba shares lost over 2% in","content":"<div>\n<p>ZINGER KEY POINTSShares of Li Auto fell and Xpeng stock lost over 10%.Alibaba shares lost over 2% in morning trade while Nio was down over 5%.Hong Kong stocks opened in the red on Monday, with the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/22/12/30034154/alibaba-nio-stocks-drop-hang-seng-opens-weaker-as-us-inflation-data-fed-meet-eyed\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba, Nio Stocks Drop: Hang Seng Stays Weaker As US Inflation Data, Fed Meet Eyed</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba, Nio Stocks Drop: Hang Seng Stays Weaker As US Inflation Data, Fed Meet Eyed\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-12 11:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/22/12/30034154/alibaba-nio-stocks-drop-hang-seng-opens-weaker-as-us-inflation-data-fed-meet-eyed><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ZINGER KEY POINTSShares of Li Auto fell and Xpeng stock lost over 10%.Alibaba shares lost over 2% in morning trade while Nio was down over 5%.Hong Kong stocks opened in the red on Monday, with the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/22/12/30034154/alibaba-nio-stocks-drop-hang-seng-opens-weaker-as-us-inflation-data-fed-meet-eyed\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"02015":"理想汽车-W","09868":"小鹏汽车-W","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","09866":"蔚来-SW"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/22/12/30034154/alibaba-nio-stocks-drop-hang-seng-opens-weaker-as-us-inflation-data-fed-meet-eyed","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121376009","content_text":"ZINGER KEY POINTSShares of Li Auto fell and Xpeng stock lost over 10%.Alibaba shares lost over 2% in morning trade while Nio was down over 5%.Hong Kong stocks opened in the red on Monday, with the benchmark Hang Seng losing 1% in morning trade, as investors and traders shifted focus to U.S. consumer price inflation due on Tuesday and the crucial FOMC meeting where the Federal Reserve is expected to hike its policy rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday.Shares of Li Auto and Xpeng stock lost over 10%. Alibaba shares lost over 2% in morning trade, while Nio was down over 5%.“Following the very rapid tightening in policy rates this year, we expect the FOMC, ECB and BoE will reduce the magnitude of rate hikes to 50bp but reaffirm that they remain determined to bring inflation back to target and will take the appropriate and the necessary steps,” ANZ Research said in a note.Company News: NIO founder William Li confirmed that the company is set to launch two new models at the NIO Day 2022 event at the end of this month,reportedCnEVPost.China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation known as Sinopec, which is a minority stakeholder of CMES, is in talks to secure newbuilds at Jiangnan and Dalian, reported Reuters.Top Gainers and Losers: Country Garden Services Holdings Company Limited and Longfor Group Holdings Limited were the top losers among Hang Seng constituents, having shed over 11% and 5%, respectively. Hang Lung Properties Limited and Alibaba Health Information Technology Limited were the top gainers, having risen over 4% and 1%, respectively.Global News: U.S. futures traded in the red on Monday morning Asia session. The Dow Jones futures lost 0.07%, while the Nasdaq futures fell 0.18%. The S&P 500 futures were trading lower by 0.16%.Elsewhere in Asia-Pacific, Australia’s ASX 200 was down 0.52%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 traded 0.29% lower while China’s Shanghai Composite index fell 0.41%. South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.49%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02015":0.9,"09988":0.9,"09866":0.9,"09868":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3303,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929618395,"gmtCreate":1670647175817,"gmtModify":1676538412234,"author":{"id":"3586829232043276","authorId":"3586829232043276","name":"clingling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac8266443879ca0b9b00e68416a1244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586829232043276","authorIdStr":"3586829232043276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929618395","repostId":"2290252646","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2290252646","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1670641104,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2290252646?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-10 10:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rivian, Warner Bros. Discovery to Be Added to Nasdaq 100","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2290252646","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Baker Hughes, GlobalFoundries will also join tech-heavy indexChanges are effective after the market ","content":"<div>\n<p>Baker Hughes, GlobalFoundries will also join tech-heavy indexChanges are effective after the market close on Dec. 16Rivian Automotive Inc. and Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. will be joining the Nasdaq ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-10/rivian-warner-bros-discovery-to-be-added-to-nasdaq-100?srnd=premium\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rivian, Warner Bros. Discovery to Be Added to Nasdaq 100</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRivian, Warner Bros. Discovery to Be Added to Nasdaq 100\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-10 10:58 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-10/rivian-warner-bros-discovery-to-be-added-to-nasdaq-100?srnd=premium><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Baker Hughes, GlobalFoundries will also join tech-heavy indexChanges are effective after the market close on Dec. 16Rivian Automotive Inc. and Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. will be joining the Nasdaq ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-10/rivian-warner-bros-discovery-to-be-added-to-nasdaq-100?srnd=premium\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","WBD":"WARNER BROS DISCOVERY INC","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-10/rivian-warner-bros-discovery-to-be-added-to-nasdaq-100?srnd=premium","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2290252646","content_text":"Baker Hughes, GlobalFoundries will also join tech-heavy indexChanges are effective after the market close on Dec. 16Rivian Automotive Inc. and Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. will be joining the Nasdaq 100 Index as part of its annual rebalancing, which adjusts the tech-heavy benchmark’s composition for changes in market capitalization.CoStar Group Inc., GlobalFoundries Inc., Baker Hughes Co., and Diamondback Energy Inc. will also be added to the index, according to a press release from Nasdaq. VeriSign Inc., Skyworks Solutions Inc., Splunk Inc., Baidu Inc., Match Group Inc., DocuSign Inc. and NetEase Inc. will be removed from the Nasdaq 100.A Rivian R1T electric pickup truck during the company’s IPO outside the Nasdaq MarketSite in New York, in Nov. 2021. Photographer: Bing Guan/BloombergThe changes will effective before the start of trading on Dec. 19.“The Nasdaq 100 will continued to be dominated by mega tech,” according to Patrick Mohr, global index and microstructure analyst at Instinet, an institutional broker. “This is just a process that the index goes through to clean out the dogs that have underperformed dramatically. If their market cap was really low, they may have been deemed not appropriate for the index anymore and new names were brought in.”The Nasdaq 100, which currently has 102 members, is comprised of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. There is no minimum market capitalization requirement to be eligible for inclusion, but stocks must have an average daily trading volume of at least 200,000 shares, among other criteria, to be listed.Joining the index can benefit a company by providing increased equity trading liquidity, a lower cost of capital and heightened visibility from investors. Many large index funds, like the $154 billion Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 exchange-traded fund, track the Nasdaq 100 and must own all of its members’ shares. And actively managed funds that are benchmarked against it have to buy the stocks as well.The Nasdaq 100 is down 29% this year as growth companies have taken a heavy beating in the stock market rout. By comparison, the S&P 500 Index has lost 17%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has declined 8%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NDX":0.9,"RIVN":1,"WBD":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3386,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920456855,"gmtCreate":1670543873877,"gmtModify":1676538388849,"author":{"id":"3586829232043276","authorId":"3586829232043276","name":"clingling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac8266443879ca0b9b00e68416a1244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586829232043276","authorIdStr":"3586829232043276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920456855","repostId":"2289551436","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2289551436","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670513832,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2289551436?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-08 23:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Best High-Yield Dividend Stocks to Buy in December, According to OpenAI's Amazing New ChatBot","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2289551436","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Here are the top dividend picks from an impressive new AI system.","content":"<div>\n<p>\"Scary good.\" That's Elon Musk's description of OpenAI's new prototype ChatGPT chatbot in a tweet over the weekend. He added, \"We are not far from dangerously strong AI.\"Whether or not you agree with ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/07/3-best-high-yield-dividend-stocks-to-buy-in-decemb/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Best High-Yield Dividend Stocks to Buy in December, According to OpenAI's Amazing New ChatBot</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Best High-Yield Dividend Stocks to Buy in December, According to OpenAI's Amazing New ChatBot\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-08 23:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/07/3-best-high-yield-dividend-stocks-to-buy-in-decemb/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>\"Scary good.\" That's Elon Musk's description of OpenAI's new prototype ChatGPT chatbot in a tweet over the weekend. He added, \"We are not far from dangerously strong AI.\"Whether or not you agree with ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/07/3-best-high-yield-dividend-stocks-to-buy-in-decemb/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"O":"Realty Income Corp","RYDAF":"SHELL PLC","ET":"Energy Transfer LP"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/07/3-best-high-yield-dividend-stocks-to-buy-in-decemb/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2289551436","content_text":"\"Scary good.\" That's Elon Musk's description of OpenAI's new prototype ChatGPT chatbot in a tweet over the weekend. He added, \"We are not far from dangerously strong AI.\"Whether or not you agree with Musk's fear about the threat presented by artificial intelligence, he's on the mark with his view about how good ChatGPT is. I've had multiple lengthy conversations with the new chatbot over the past few days. The discussions ranged from economic theory to how to address major global problems to what Ben Franklin would think about the modern world if he time-traveled to the present. I was impressed by ChatGPT's responses.Because I write about investing, I couldn't help but bring the topic up with my AI pal. I thought I'd share some insights gathered from one of our conversations. Here are the three best high-yield dividend stocks to buy in December, according to OpenAI's amazing new chatbot.1. Energy Transfer LPChatGPT's first recommendation was Energy Transfer LP. I should note, though, that the chatbot said that its list of recommendations wasn't sorted in any way (although they're in alphabetical order).Energy Transfer LP ranks as one of the largest midstream energy companies in the world. The company exports nearly 20% of global natural gas liquids -- more than any other company (or any country, for that matter).Why did ChatGPT like this stock? For one thing, it has a high-distribution yield that currently tops 8.5%. Energy Transfer has a solid history of paying distributions. The company is strong financially with a diversified portfolio of assets including pipelines, storage facilities, and terminals. The AI system also felt that Energy Transfer has a good management team with a track record of success.2. Realty Income Corp.Realty Income Corp. was the second high-yield dividend stock on ChatGPT's list. It's one of the five largest real estate investment trusts (REITs) in the U.S. Realty Income's tenants include dollar stores, convenience stores, grocery stores, restaurants, and more.ChatGPT quickly pointed out that Realty Income has a high-dividend yield and a strong history of dividend growth. It's right on both points. The REIT's dividend yield currently stands above 4.7%. Realty Income is also a Dividend Aristocrat with 27 consecutive years of dividend increases.Realty Income's dividend program wasn't the only plus for the stock in ChatGPT's view, though. The chatbot also liked the company's historical financial strength and diversified portfolio of properties.3. Shell plcTechnically, ChatGPT recommended Royal Dutch Shell as its third pick. But the AI system's training data only went through in late 2021. Royal Dutch Shell changed its name to Shell plc in January 2022. The rationale for choosing this stock is still applicable, though.Obviously, the chatbot thought highly of Shell's dividend. The company's dividend yield is nearly 3.5% today but was probably a little higher than that in ChatGPT's training data. The AI system also viewed Shell's strong financial position as a positive.In addition, ChatGPT felt that Shell's global operations could \"provide some diversification and resilience during uncertain economic times.\" The company does business in more than 70 countries worldwide.Intelligent picks?So how intelligent were the picks from OpenAI's new AI system? Overall, I think they were good.Energy Transfer is arguably one of the best ultra-high-yield dividend stocks on the market right now. My colleague Matt Frankel wrote last month that if he could buy only one stock, it would be Realty Income. Shell has certainly been a huge winner this year and could go higher if global oil and gas supply is limited by the EU's introduction of a cap on Russian oil.But ChatGPT wasn't perfect. For example, it noted Shell's \"history of consistent dividend growth.\" The company's actual history of dividend growth isn't anything to crow about. Also, I suspect that the recommendations might have been different if the chatbot had access to current data.I wouldn't rely on ChatGPT for investment advice. It wouldn't advise doing so either. The AI system emphasized that it's \"important to thoroughly research and carefully evaluate any potential stock purchases.\" That's intelligent counsel for all investors.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RYDAF":0.9,"ET":0.9,"O":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9967186339,"gmtCreate":1670284598921,"gmtModify":1676538335728,"author":{"id":"3586829232043276","authorId":"3586829232043276","name":"clingling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac8266443879ca0b9b00e68416a1244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586829232043276","authorIdStr":"3586829232043276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967186339","repostId":"1192281042","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":847,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964926653,"gmtCreate":1670056403572,"gmtModify":1676538296758,"author":{"id":"3586829232043276","authorId":"3586829232043276","name":"clingling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac8266443879ca0b9b00e68416a1244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586829232043276","authorIdStr":"3586829232043276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964926653","repostId":"2288596195","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288596195","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670024380,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288596195?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-03 07:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Now Is NOT the Time to Buy NIO Stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288596195","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Nio (NIO) stock could remain under pressure to due China’s unpredictable Covid-19 policy.Despite Nio’s revenue growth, investors should observe the company’s widening earnings loss.Investors can choos","content":"<div>\n<p>Nio (NIO) stock could remain under pressure to due China’s unpredictable Covid-19 policy.Despite Nio’s revenue growth, investors should observe the company’s widening earnings loss.Investors can ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/market360/2022/12/why-now-is-not-the-time-to-buy-nio-stock/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Now Is NOT the Time to Buy NIO Stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Now Is NOT the Time to Buy NIO Stock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-03 07:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/market360/2022/12/why-now-is-not-the-time-to-buy-nio-stock/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nio (NIO) stock could remain under pressure to due China’s unpredictable Covid-19 policy.Despite Nio’s revenue growth, investors should observe the company’s widening earnings loss.Investors can ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/market360/2022/12/why-now-is-not-the-time-to-buy-nio-stock/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","09866":"蔚来-SW","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","LU0708995583.HKD":"TEMPLETON CHINA \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4555":"新能源车","NIO.SI":"蔚来","NIO":"蔚来","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/market360/2022/12/why-now-is-not-the-time-to-buy-nio-stock/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288596195","content_text":"Nio (NIO) stock could remain under pressure to due China’s unpredictable Covid-19 policy.Despite Nio’s revenue growth, investors should observe the company’s widening earnings loss.Investors can choose to delay any purchases of NIO stock until conditions improve.Source: Michael Vi / Shutterstock.comGiven the fact that Nio (NYSE:NIO) stock is down year-to-date, eager investors may be tempted to take a long position now. However, this is actually a time to exercise caution.For one thing, China’s on-and-off zero-Covid policies could throw a wrench into the works. Besides, Nio’s financials are less than ideal, especially when it comes to the company’s profits (or lack thereof).As a China-based electric vehicle (EV) company, Nio has to contend with multiple challenges. There’s the prospect of having to compete in a fierce EV market. Plus, Nio must deal with a government that’s not always business-friendly.Regardless of where you’re located, if you’re invested in Nio, the company’s problems will become your problems. There may be a time to take a stake in Nio at some point in the future, but for the time being, a watch-and-wait strategy is entirely appropriate.NIONio$12.09What’s Happening with NIO Stock?NIO stock started 2022 at $33, but recently declined to just $12 and change. Bear in mind, just because a stock has a lower price, doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a good value.It’s difficult to assign a proper value to a stock when there’s an unpredictable government. On Nov. 11, a number of U.S.-listed Chinese companies’ shares rallied because Beijing seemed to be easing some of China’s Covid-19 restrictions. Yet, the hope of a near-term full reopening in China wouldn’t last long.Fast-forward to Nov. 22, and China is reporting 28,127 new domestically transmitted Covid-19 cases. This number was close to the nation’s daily peak from April.The next thing you know, there are reports of cultural and entertainment venues closures and restricted use of some shopping malls and restaurants. This, clearly, is a challenging macro-level environment for Nio to work in.Nio’s Financial Are ProblematicMeanwhile, some folks probably celebrated Nio’s most recently reported quarterly financial results, but perhaps they shouldn’t. There’s good news in the data but also major issues.It’s true that Nio increased its revenue 32.6% year over year during the third quarter of 2022. However, Nio also saw its gross margin shrink from 20.3% to 13.3% during that time.Furthermore, Nio’s gross profit contracted 12.9% year over year, but that’s not even the worst part. Distressingly, Nio’s net earnings loss ballooned 392.1% year over year to the equivalent of $577.9 million in Q3 2022.Now, we can start to see why NIO stock hasn’t regained its footing this year. Currently, there are too many holes in the bull thesis for investors to put their faith in Nio.What You Can Do NowThis isn’t to suggest that Nio is a toxic business that’s about to go bankrupt. There may be an appropriate time to consider NIO stock in the future.However, once again, let’s not confuse a low share price with a compelling value. The macro-level and company-specific conditions simply don’t favor an investment in Nio, so feel free to stay on the sidelines for now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TWX":1,"EVS.SI":0.6,"NIO":1,"09866":0.6,"NIO.SI":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":890,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965296927,"gmtCreate":1669954020270,"gmtModify":1676538277692,"author":{"id":"3586829232043276","authorId":"3586829232043276","name":"clingling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac8266443879ca0b9b00e68416a1244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586829232043276","authorIdStr":"3586829232043276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965296927","repostId":"2288419988","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288419988","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669951815,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288419988?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-02 11:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Coinbase Says Apple Forced It to Remove NFT Transfers From Its IOS Wallet","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288419988","media":"The Verge","summary":"The iPhone maker allegedly wanted to take a 30 percent cut from the blockchain transaction fees.Illu","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The iPhone maker allegedly wanted to take a 30 percent cut from the blockchain transaction fees.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/943f05e3af7e9f41d1a23ab01f82f762\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"552\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Illustration by Alex Castro / The Verge</span></p><p>Coinbase has accused Apple of forcing it to remove NFT transfers from its Wallet app on iOS. On Thursday, it tweeted that Apple “blocked our last app release until we disabled the feature” because the iPhone maker wanted the blockchain fees associated with an NFT transfer to go through its in-app purchase system, giving it a 30 percent cut.</p><p>According to Coinbase, it’s impossible to make that happen for a variety of reasons, with one important one being that Apple’s system doesn’t support paying in crypto.</p><p>While some NFT marketplaces let you purchase the digital tokens using traditional fiat currency like the US dollar, the fees Coinbase is talking about are a different matter entirely. On blockchains like Ethereum, which many NFT projects use, any transaction will incur a fee, which goes to pay the people who validate it. The fees are collected in cryptocurrencies, like ETH. That’s true even if you’re sending someone an NFT for free.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a96a58382cc23ca9b14a464968d9369\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"640\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Importantly, no part of the gas fee goes to Coinbase or the person receiving the NFT. The fee also changes from moment to moment based on a variety of factors, like the price of the cryptocurrency or how many people are trying to get transactions validated. In other words, it’s really not the sort of thing that Apple’s in-app purchase system is even set up to handle.</p><p>Despite that fact, it’s not necessarily a surprise that Apple told Coinbase that it wasn’t allowed to keep its NFT transfer system as it was. In October, the company updated its App Store review guidelines to specifically address NFTs with this new addition under section 3.1.1 In-App Purchase:</p><blockquote><b>Apps may use in-app purchase to sell and sell services related to non-fungible tokens (NFTs), such as minting, listing, and transferring</b>. Apps may allow users to view their own NFTs, provided that NFT ownership does not unlock features or functionality within the app. Apps may allow users to browse NFT collections owned by others, provided that the apps may not include buttons, external links, or other calls to action that direct customers to purchasing mechanisms other than in-app purchase.</blockquote><p>That last part of the bolded section is pretty black and white, but it’s still a bit surprising that Apple would demand a cut of gas fees. Before Coinbase’s tweet thread, I would’ve guessed that Apple would only demand its in-app purchase system be used in a marketplace situation where people could buy or sell NFTs.</p><p>The interpretation that Apple appears to have applied here — we contacted it for comment but didn’t immediately hear back — would affect transfers where you’re just moving an NFT between your own wallets or sending it as a gift to friends and family, to borrow an example from Coinbase. (Side note: if a friend or family member sent me an NFT for any reason, I would disown them.)</p><p>Coinbase says that it hopes this is all just an oversight and that it’ll be able to straighten things out with Apple, though those conversations might be a bit tense after its CEO tweeted that the App Store is a monopoly (the jury is literally still out on that) and that some of Coinbase’s conversations with Apple have been “absurd.” If this really is Apple’s rule, though, Coinbase knows the score and will just have to find some way around it — at the moment, it&#39;s replying to reviews on its Wallet app and instructing users to download the Coinbase Wallet Chrome extension.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Coinbase Says Apple Forced It to Remove NFT Transfers From Its IOS Wallet</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoinbase Says Apple Forced It to Remove NFT Transfers From Its IOS Wallet\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-02 11:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.theverge.com/2022/12/1/23488448/coinbase-ios-wallet-app-apple-nft-fees-in-app-purchase-store><strong>The Verge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The iPhone maker allegedly wanted to take a 30 percent cut from the blockchain transaction fees.Illustration by Alex Castro / The VergeCoinbase has accused Apple of forcing it to remove NFT transfers ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.theverge.com/2022/12/1/23488448/coinbase-ios-wallet-app-apple-nft-fees-in-app-purchase-store\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.theverge.com/2022/12/1/23488448/coinbase-ios-wallet-app-apple-nft-fees-in-app-purchase-store","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288419988","content_text":"The iPhone maker allegedly wanted to take a 30 percent cut from the blockchain transaction fees.Illustration by Alex Castro / The VergeCoinbase has accused Apple of forcing it to remove NFT transfers from its Wallet app on iOS. On Thursday, it tweeted that Apple “blocked our last app release until we disabled the feature” because the iPhone maker wanted the blockchain fees associated with an NFT transfer to go through its in-app purchase system, giving it a 30 percent cut.According to Coinbase, it’s impossible to make that happen for a variety of reasons, with one important one being that Apple’s system doesn’t support paying in crypto.While some NFT marketplaces let you purchase the digital tokens using traditional fiat currency like the US dollar, the fees Coinbase is talking about are a different matter entirely. On blockchains like Ethereum, which many NFT projects use, any transaction will incur a fee, which goes to pay the people who validate it. The fees are collected in cryptocurrencies, like ETH. That’s true even if you’re sending someone an NFT for free.Importantly, no part of the gas fee goes to Coinbase or the person receiving the NFT. The fee also changes from moment to moment based on a variety of factors, like the price of the cryptocurrency or how many people are trying to get transactions validated. In other words, it’s really not the sort of thing that Apple’s in-app purchase system is even set up to handle.Despite that fact, it’s not necessarily a surprise that Apple told Coinbase that it wasn’t allowed to keep its NFT transfer system as it was. In October, the company updated its App Store review guidelines to specifically address NFTs with this new addition under section 3.1.1 In-App Purchase:Apps may use in-app purchase to sell and sell services related to non-fungible tokens (NFTs), such as minting, listing, and transferring. Apps may allow users to view their own NFTs, provided that NFT ownership does not unlock features or functionality within the app. Apps may allow users to browse NFT collections owned by others, provided that the apps may not include buttons, external links, or other calls to action that direct customers to purchasing mechanisms other than in-app purchase.That last part of the bolded section is pretty black and white, but it’s still a bit surprising that Apple would demand a cut of gas fees. Before Coinbase’s tweet thread, I would’ve guessed that Apple would only demand its in-app purchase system be used in a marketplace situation where people could buy or sell NFTs.The interpretation that Apple appears to have applied here — we contacted it for comment but didn’t immediately hear back — would affect transfers where you’re just moving an NFT between your own wallets or sending it as a gift to friends and family, to borrow an example from Coinbase. (Side note: if a friend or family member sent me an NFT for any reason, I would disown them.)Coinbase says that it hopes this is all just an oversight and that it’ll be able to straighten things out with Apple, though those conversations might be a bit tense after its CEO tweeted that the App Store is a monopoly (the jury is literally still out on that) and that some of Coinbase’s conversations with Apple have been “absurd.” If this really is Apple’s rule, though, Coinbase knows the score and will just have to find some way around it — at the moment, it's replying to reviews on its Wallet app and instructing users to download the Coinbase Wallet Chrome extension.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"COIN":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1226,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962776454,"gmtCreate":1669853327578,"gmtModify":1676538256052,"author":{"id":"3586829232043276","authorId":"3586829232043276","name":"clingling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac8266443879ca0b9b00e68416a1244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586829232043276","authorIdStr":"3586829232043276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962776454","repostId":"1138931777","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138931777","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669852128,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138931777?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-01 07:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"After-Hours Movers: Salesforce, Snowflake, Splunk and More","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138931777","media":"Investing","summary":"After-Hours Stock Movers:G-III Apparel Group (NASDAQ:GIII)25% LOWER; reported Q3 EPS of $1.35, $0.46","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a672766f8f9c009bb3d69a22fb98c1b4\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><b>After-Hours Stock Movers:</b></p><p>G-III Apparel Group (NASDAQ:GIII)25% LOWER; reported Q3 EPS of $1.35, $0.46 worse than the analyst estimate of $1.81.Revenue for the quartercame in at $1.08 billion versus the consensus estimate of $1.06B. G-III Apparel Group sees FY2023 EPS of $3.00-$3.10, versus the consensus of $3.58. G-III Apparel Group sees FY2023 revenue of $3.15B, versus the consensus of $3.12B.</p><p>Aziyo Biologics Inc (NASDAQ:AZYO) 24% LOWER; announced that it has commenced an underwritten public offering, subject to market and other conditions, of shares of its common stock.</p><p>ElasticN.V. (NYSE:ESTC)15% LOWER; reported Q2 EPS of $0.00, $0.10 better than the analyst estimate of ($0.10).Revenue for the quartercame in at $264.4 million versus the consensus estimate of $261.56M. Elastic N.V. sees Q3 2023 EPS of $0.04-$0.07, versus the consensus of ($0.04). Elastic N.V. sees Q3 2023 revenue of $272-274M, versus the consensus of $277.43M. Elastic N.V. sees FY2023 EPS of ($0.03)-$0.03, versus the consensus of ($0.28). Elastic N.V. sees FY2023 revenue of $1.067-1.073B, versus the consensus of $1.08B.</p><p>Okta, Inc. (NASDAQ:OKTA)14% HIGHER; reported Q3 EPS of $0.00, $0.24 better than the analyst estimate of ($0.24).Revenue for the quartercame in at $481M versus the consensus estimate of $465.42M. Okta, Inc. sees Q4 2023 EPS of $0.09-$0.10, versus the consensus of ($0.11). Okta, Inc. sees Q4 2023 revenue of $488-490M, versus the consensus of $487M.</p><p>PVH Corp. (NYSE:PVH)11% HIGHER; reported Q3 EPS of $2.60, $0.43 better than the analyst estimate of $2.17.Revenue for the quartercame in at $2.28B versus the consensus estimate of $2.23B. PVH Corp. sees FY2022 EPS of $8.25, versus the consensus of $7.89.</p><p>Five Below (NASDAQ:FIVE)9% HIGHER; reported Q3 EPS of $0.29, $0.15 better than the analyst estimate of $0.14.Revenue for the quartercame in at $607.6M versus the consensus estimate of $610.46M. Five Below sees Q4 2023 EPS of $2.93-$3.09, versus the consensus of $2.93. Five Below sees Q4 2023 revenue of $1.085-1.11B, versus the consensus of $1.08B. Five Below sees FY2023 EPS of $4.55-$4.71, versus the consensus of $4.41. Five Below sees FY2023 revenue of $3.038-3.0993B, versus the consensus of $3.8B.</p><p>FREYR Battery SA (NYSE:FREY) 9% LOWER; announced that it plans to make a public offering of 13,500,000 of its Ordinary Shares, without nominal value, in an underwritten registered public offering.</p><p>Snowflake Inc (NYSE:SNOW) 8% LOWER; reported Q3 EPS of $0.11, $0.07 better than the analyst estimate of $0.04.Revenue for the quartercame in at $557M versus the consensus estimate of $539.07M. Product revenue of $522.8M in the third quarter, representing 67% year-over-year growth. Sees Q4 product revenue of $535-$540M.</p><p>Salesforce (NYSE:CRM)7% LOWER; reported Q3 EPS of $1.40, $0.18 better than the analyst estimate of $1.22.Revenue for the quartercame in at $7.84B versus the consensus estimate of $7.83B. Salesforce sees Q4 2023 EPS of $1.35-$1.37, versus the consensus of $1.34. Salesforce sees Q4 2023 revenue of $7.932-8.032B, versus the consensus of $8.02B.</p><p>Splunk (NASDAQ:SPLK)7% HIGHER; reported Q3 EPS of $0.83, $0.58 better than the analyst estimate of $0.25.Revenue for the quartercame in at $930M versus the consensus estimate of $847.69M. Splunk sees Q4 2023 revenue of $1.055-1.085B, versus the consensus of $1.06B</p><p>CTO Realty Growth Inc (NYSE:CTO) 6% LOWER; announced that it has commenced an underwritten public offering of 2,500,000 shares of its common stock</p><p>Victoria&#39;s Secret &amp; Co (NYSE:VSCO) (VSCO)3% LOWER; reported Q3 EPS of $0.29, $0.07 better than the analyst estimate of $0.22.Revenue for the quartercame in at $1.32B versus the consensus estimate of $1.32B. Victoria&#39;s Secret &amp; Co. sees Q4 2023 EPS of $2.40-$2.45, versus the consensus of $2.32. The Company is forecasting fourth quarter 2022 net sales to decrease in the high-single digit range compared to last year’s fourth quarter net sales of $2.175B. Victoria&#39;s Secret &amp; Co. sees FY2023 EPS of $4.50-$4.95, versus the consensus of $4.73. The Company is forecasting full year 2022 net sales to decrease 6% to 7% compared to last year’s full year net sales of $6.785B.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>After-Hours Movers: Salesforce, Snowflake, Splunk and More</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter-Hours Movers: Salesforce, Snowflake, Splunk and More\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-01 07:48 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/afterhours-movers-snowflake-salesforce-fall-post-eps-pvh-gains-432SI-2954896><strong>Investing</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>After-Hours Stock Movers:G-III Apparel Group (NASDAQ:GIII)25% LOWER; reported Q3 EPS of $1.35, $0.46 worse than the analyst estimate of $1.81.Revenue for the quartercame in at $1.08 billion versus the...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/afterhours-movers-snowflake-salesforce-fall-post-eps-pvh-gains-432SI-2954896\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNOW":"Snowflake","CRM":"赛富时","SPLK":"Splunk Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/afterhours-movers-snowflake-salesforce-fall-post-eps-pvh-gains-432SI-2954896","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138931777","content_text":"After-Hours Stock Movers:G-III Apparel Group (NASDAQ:GIII)25% LOWER; reported Q3 EPS of $1.35, $0.46 worse than the analyst estimate of $1.81.Revenue for the quartercame in at $1.08 billion versus the consensus estimate of $1.06B. G-III Apparel Group sees FY2023 EPS of $3.00-$3.10, versus the consensus of $3.58. G-III Apparel Group sees FY2023 revenue of $3.15B, versus the consensus of $3.12B.Aziyo Biologics Inc (NASDAQ:AZYO) 24% LOWER; announced that it has commenced an underwritten public offering, subject to market and other conditions, of shares of its common stock.ElasticN.V. (NYSE:ESTC)15% LOWER; reported Q2 EPS of $0.00, $0.10 better than the analyst estimate of ($0.10).Revenue for the quartercame in at $264.4 million versus the consensus estimate of $261.56M. Elastic N.V. sees Q3 2023 EPS of $0.04-$0.07, versus the consensus of ($0.04). Elastic N.V. sees Q3 2023 revenue of $272-274M, versus the consensus of $277.43M. Elastic N.V. sees FY2023 EPS of ($0.03)-$0.03, versus the consensus of ($0.28). Elastic N.V. sees FY2023 revenue of $1.067-1.073B, versus the consensus of $1.08B.Okta, Inc. (NASDAQ:OKTA)14% HIGHER; reported Q3 EPS of $0.00, $0.24 better than the analyst estimate of ($0.24).Revenue for the quartercame in at $481M versus the consensus estimate of $465.42M. Okta, Inc. sees Q4 2023 EPS of $0.09-$0.10, versus the consensus of ($0.11). Okta, Inc. sees Q4 2023 revenue of $488-490M, versus the consensus of $487M.PVH Corp. (NYSE:PVH)11% HIGHER; reported Q3 EPS of $2.60, $0.43 better than the analyst estimate of $2.17.Revenue for the quartercame in at $2.28B versus the consensus estimate of $2.23B. PVH Corp. sees FY2022 EPS of $8.25, versus the consensus of $7.89.Five Below (NASDAQ:FIVE)9% HIGHER; reported Q3 EPS of $0.29, $0.15 better than the analyst estimate of $0.14.Revenue for the quartercame in at $607.6M versus the consensus estimate of $610.46M. Five Below sees Q4 2023 EPS of $2.93-$3.09, versus the consensus of $2.93. Five Below sees Q4 2023 revenue of $1.085-1.11B, versus the consensus of $1.08B. Five Below sees FY2023 EPS of $4.55-$4.71, versus the consensus of $4.41. Five Below sees FY2023 revenue of $3.038-3.0993B, versus the consensus of $3.8B.FREYR Battery SA (NYSE:FREY) 9% LOWER; announced that it plans to make a public offering of 13,500,000 of its Ordinary Shares, without nominal value, in an underwritten registered public offering.Snowflake Inc (NYSE:SNOW) 8% LOWER; reported Q3 EPS of $0.11, $0.07 better than the analyst estimate of $0.04.Revenue for the quartercame in at $557M versus the consensus estimate of $539.07M. Product revenue of $522.8M in the third quarter, representing 67% year-over-year growth. Sees Q4 product revenue of $535-$540M.Salesforce (NYSE:CRM)7% LOWER; reported Q3 EPS of $1.40, $0.18 better than the analyst estimate of $1.22.Revenue for the quartercame in at $7.84B versus the consensus estimate of $7.83B. Salesforce sees Q4 2023 EPS of $1.35-$1.37, versus the consensus of $1.34. Salesforce sees Q4 2023 revenue of $7.932-8.032B, versus the consensus of $8.02B.Splunk (NASDAQ:SPLK)7% HIGHER; reported Q3 EPS of $0.83, $0.58 better than the analyst estimate of $0.25.Revenue for the quartercame in at $930M versus the consensus estimate of $847.69M. Splunk sees Q4 2023 revenue of $1.055-1.085B, versus the consensus of $1.06BCTO Realty Growth Inc (NYSE:CTO) 6% LOWER; announced that it has commenced an underwritten public offering of 2,500,000 shares of its common stockVictoria's Secret & Co (NYSE:VSCO) (VSCO)3% LOWER; reported Q3 EPS of $0.29, $0.07 better than the analyst estimate of $0.22.Revenue for the quartercame in at $1.32B versus the consensus estimate of $1.32B. Victoria's Secret & Co. sees Q4 2023 EPS of $2.40-$2.45, versus the consensus of $2.32. The Company is forecasting fourth quarter 2022 net sales to decrease in the high-single digit range compared to last year’s fourth quarter net sales of $2.175B. Victoria's Secret & Co. sees FY2023 EPS of $4.50-$4.95, versus the consensus of $4.73. The Company is forecasting full year 2022 net sales to decrease 6% to 7% compared to last year’s full year net sales of $6.785B.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CRM":0.9,"SPLK":0.9,"SNOW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1266,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962699576,"gmtCreate":1669766917596,"gmtModify":1676538237932,"author":{"id":"3586829232043276","authorId":"3586829232043276","name":"clingling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac8266443879ca0b9b00e68416a1244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586829232043276","authorIdStr":"3586829232043276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962699576","repostId":"1119313173","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119313173","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669763356,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119313173?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-30 07:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Workday Stock Rises 9% Following Raised Outlook and Share-Buyback Plan","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119313173","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Workday Inc. shares rallied in the extended session Tuesday after the human-resources cloud-software","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f65372e8e11589693fbc65c04cf19e6e\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Workday Inc. shares rallied in the extended session Tuesday after the human-resources cloud-software company hiked its outlook and launched a share buyback program.</p><p>Workday shares rose 9% after hours, following a 1.3% decline in the regular session to close at $143.30.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8fc89b099bb1bf7a7558ed32d2d8c4e\" tg-width=\"856\" tg-height=\"847\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Pleasanton, Calif.-based company reported a third-quarter loss of $74.7 million, or 29 cents a share, versus net income of $43.4 million, or 17 cents a share, in the year-ago period.</p><p>Adjusted earnings, which exclude stock-based compensation expenses and other items, were $1.15 a share, compared with $1.10 a share in the year-ago period.</p><p>Revenue rose to $1.6 billion from $1.33 billion in the year-ago quarter, while subscription revenue rose 22% to $1.43 billion from a year ago.</p><p>Analysts had forecast 84 cents a share on revenue of $1.59 billion and subscription revenue of $1.42 billion.</p><p>“There is no question that the current macro environment presents increased uncertainty, but, due to the great work of our employees and our continued innovation, we are confident in the long-term opportunity and our ability to navigate the road ahead,” said Aneel Bhusri, Workday’s co-founder and co-CEO, in a statement.</p><p>Workday makes applications that help companies automate human-resources and business tasks like payroll and expenses, while tracking employee data.</p><p>“We delivered solid third-quarter results, a testament to strong execution across the company as well as the strategic and mission-critical nature of our solutions,” said Barbara Larson, Workday’s chief financial officer, in a statement.</p><p>“Our updated outlook reflects the ongoing momentum in our business and the power of our business model, while continuing to balance the current environment,” Larson said. “We are raising the low end of our fiscal 2023 subscription revenue guidance to a range of $5.555 billion to $5.557 billion, or 22% growth. We are also raising our fiscal 2023 non-GAAP operating margin guidance to 19.2%, reflecting our commitment to delivering healthy growth and profitability.”</p><p>Analysts surveyed by FactSet have already been forecasting subscription revenue of $5.55 billion for the year.</p><p>The company also announced its board authorized a $500 million share buyback program over the next 18 months.</p><p>So far, in November, cloud software stocks have been getting trashed. While the S&amp;P 500 has gained 2%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is flat, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF has fallen more than 2%, the Global X Cloud Computing ETF has declined more than 4%, the First Trust Cloud Computing ETF has fallen more than 6%, and the WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund has dropped more than 11%.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Workday Stock Rises 9% Following Raised Outlook and Share-Buyback Plan</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWorkday Stock Rises 9% Following Raised Outlook and Share-Buyback Plan\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-30 07:09 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/workday-stock-rises-5-following-hiked-outlook-share-buybacks-announced-11669757756?mod=search_headline><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Workday Inc. shares rallied in the extended session Tuesday after the human-resources cloud-software company hiked its outlook and launched a share buyback program.Workday shares rose 9% after hours, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/workday-stock-rises-5-following-hiked-outlook-share-buybacks-announced-11669757756?mod=search_headline\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WDAY":"Workday"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/workday-stock-rises-5-following-hiked-outlook-share-buybacks-announced-11669757756?mod=search_headline","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119313173","content_text":"Workday Inc. shares rallied in the extended session Tuesday after the human-resources cloud-software company hiked its outlook and launched a share buyback program.Workday shares rose 9% after hours, following a 1.3% decline in the regular session to close at $143.30.The Pleasanton, Calif.-based company reported a third-quarter loss of $74.7 million, or 29 cents a share, versus net income of $43.4 million, or 17 cents a share, in the year-ago period.Adjusted earnings, which exclude stock-based compensation expenses and other items, were $1.15 a share, compared with $1.10 a share in the year-ago period.Revenue rose to $1.6 billion from $1.33 billion in the year-ago quarter, while subscription revenue rose 22% to $1.43 billion from a year ago.Analysts had forecast 84 cents a share on revenue of $1.59 billion and subscription revenue of $1.42 billion.“There is no question that the current macro environment presents increased uncertainty, but, due to the great work of our employees and our continued innovation, we are confident in the long-term opportunity and our ability to navigate the road ahead,” said Aneel Bhusri, Workday’s co-founder and co-CEO, in a statement.Workday makes applications that help companies automate human-resources and business tasks like payroll and expenses, while tracking employee data.“We delivered solid third-quarter results, a testament to strong execution across the company as well as the strategic and mission-critical nature of our solutions,” said Barbara Larson, Workday’s chief financial officer, in a statement.“Our updated outlook reflects the ongoing momentum in our business and the power of our business model, while continuing to balance the current environment,” Larson said. “We are raising the low end of our fiscal 2023 subscription revenue guidance to a range of $5.555 billion to $5.557 billion, or 22% growth. We are also raising our fiscal 2023 non-GAAP operating margin guidance to 19.2%, reflecting our commitment to delivering healthy growth and profitability.”Analysts surveyed by FactSet have already been forecasting subscription revenue of $5.55 billion for the year.The company also announced its board authorized a $500 million share buyback program over the next 18 months.So far, in November, cloud software stocks have been getting trashed. While the S&P 500 has gained 2%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is flat, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF has fallen more than 2%, the Global X Cloud Computing ETF has declined more than 4%, the First Trust Cloud Computing ETF has fallen more than 6%, and the WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund has dropped more than 11%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WDAY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1671,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962981103,"gmtCreate":1669695373702,"gmtModify":1676538224771,"author":{"id":"3586829232043276","authorId":"3586829232043276","name":"clingling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac8266443879ca0b9b00e68416a1244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586829232043276","authorIdStr":"3586829232043276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962981103","repostId":"2287543008","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2287543008","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1669693524,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2287543008?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-29 11:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 2 Stocks Could Make or Break the Market This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2287543008","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Companies in two very different industries will provide a wide view of the economy.","content":"<div>\n<p>Investors have struggled through bear market conditions in 2022, and it's far from clear whether the worst is over for the stock market. Even as market participants try to anticipate whether the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/28/these-2-stocks-could-make-or-break-the-market-this/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 2 Stocks Could Make or Break the Market This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 2 Stocks Could Make or Break the Market This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-29 11:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/28/these-2-stocks-could-make-or-break-the-market-this/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors have struggled through bear market conditions in 2022, and it's far from clear whether the worst is over for the stock market. Even as market participants try to anticipate whether the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/28/these-2-stocks-could-make-or-break-the-market-this/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNOW":"Snowflake","DG":"美国达乐公司"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/28/these-2-stocks-could-make-or-break-the-market-this/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2287543008","content_text":"Investors have struggled through bear market conditions in 2022, and it's far from clear whether the worst is over for the stock market. Even as market participants try to anticipate whether the economic slowdown will blossom into a full-blown recession and what impact it could have on financial markets, many hope for the same kind of year-end rally that has materialized in many years.Although earnings season has largely ended, some high-profile stocks will share their latest financial results with investors over the course of this week. Among those companies issuing reports, Snowflake and Dollar General will give shareholders a comprehensive view of the current state of the economy and how it's affecting businesses of different types.Will Snowflake's outlook be cloudy or clear?Snowflake is set to release its latest financial report on Wednesday, Nov. 30, after the market closes for the day. Investors are anxious to see whether its fiscal third-quarter report for the period ending Oct. 31 will show continued growth or a potential slowdown for its data cloud business.Snowflake's previous results for the quarter that ended July 31 were extraordinarily good. Product revenue soared 83% year over year to $466 million, and the company saw net revenue retention remain high at 171%. Adjusted free cash flow climbed sharply, and Snowflake had 246 customers producing at least $1 million in annualized product revenue.Moreover, Snowflake sees its growth rates remaining high well into the future. For the full fiscal year, the company anticipated product revenue to grow 67% to 68% to roughly $1.91 billion. Investors now expect even more from the company, pressing for Snowflake to get above the 70% mark for top-line growth.Investors seem to be concerned about whether demand for Snowflake's data cloud platform will remain as robust as it has in the past. In particular, with other software-as-a-service (SaaS) providers having reported signs of slowing spending from their respective client bases, it's an open question whether Snowflake could see the same kind of drop-off in enterprise spending. With the stock down 60% from its highs, there's room for a rebound in Snowflake shares if the news proves to be good.Can Dollar General cash in on bargain-hunting shoppers?Dollar General is also set to report its latest quarterly results this week, with the dollar store retailer laying it out on the table on Thursday, Dec. 1, before the market opens.Dollar General's second-quarter results for the period ended July 29 showed solid performance. Net revenue rose 9% year over year to $9.4 billion, with same-store sales climbing 4.6%. Earnings got a slightly larger 11% boost from year-ago levels to $2.98 per share, and the retailer reported slight increases in customer traffic and growing market share in consumable products. Inventory levels rose dramatically, but the company projected full-year sales growth of 11% and same-store sales gains in the 4% to 4.5% range.Investors have high hopes for the discount retailer's financial release, projecting double-digit percentage gains in both sales and profits. After seeing a slump in 2021 following an extremely good year in 2020, Dollar General is now poised to resume its former growth path and demonstrate its ability to woo new shoppers who are looking for more value than they can get from higher-priced department store retailers.While Snowflake gauges demand for business-to-business services, Dollar General will provide a key look at the health of the consumer. With inflation still putting pressure on personal finances, the trends Dollar General identifies will be relevant to the entire consumer economy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DG":0.9,"SNOW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":968,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966537750,"gmtCreate":1669592703071,"gmtModify":1676538209637,"author":{"id":"3586829232043276","authorId":"3586829232043276","name":"clingling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac8266443879ca0b9b00e68416a1244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586829232043276","authorIdStr":"3586829232043276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966537750","repostId":"1110767793","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110767793","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669522613,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1110767793?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-27 12:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110767793","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryEquities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Equities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY up 13% and QQQ up 8% QTD.</li><li>There has also been some cautious optimism among investors on signs of easing inflation and the Fed&#39;s consideration for a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.</li><li>However, company fundamentals that were previously resilient are now just starting to show the first signs of cracks, while continued borrowing cost increases will only weigh on valuations further.</li><li>The following deep dive analysis will walk through past economic cycles, valuation theory, and recent economic data to gauge where Fed policy might be headed and the related implications on SPY and QQQ valuations as we head into the new year.</li></ul><p>The S&amp;P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY/SP500) has gradually climbed more than 12% since the fourth quarter began, and closed at a two-month high during Wednesday&#39;s (November 23) session after a flurry of economic data released in recent weeks pointed to easing price pressures and market slowdown that could harbinger a dovish Fed policy stance over coming months. October CPI and PPI showed a stronger reduction in prices than expected, while recent data on jobless claims, retail sales, and business activity also pointed to a slowdown in demand, especially for discretionary goods.</p><p>Despite hawkish commentary from Fed officials still, investors are responding positively to remarks that the pace of rate hikes might be moderating from the recent slew of jumbo 75 bps increases. This has compounded market optimism on a potential shift on the Fed&#39;s policy tightening trajectory to a more dovish stance, with investors&#39; now focusing more on a potential slowdown in the pace of coming rate hikes than where the terminal rate might land (i.e. when the Fed might actually pivot).</p><p>But from a valuation and fundamental perspective, continued rate hikes are poised to squeeze multiples further into contraction, while ensuing deteriorating of financial conditions put corporate earnings at risk. With slowing demand, and mounting macroeconomic uncertainties over the Fed&#39;s tightening trajectory, when inflation would peak, and whether a recession is imminently still at large, volatility will likely continue to overpower markets. While it is difficult to gauge when exactly markets might bottom as macro deterioration gains momentum, the following analysis will turn to past tightening cycles and inflation environments, as well as basic valuation theory to explore where the market climate stands today and what to potentially expect over coming months.</p><p><b>Recent Economic Overview</b></p><p>The drumbeat for moderating inflation grew after CPI and PPI figures came in lower than expected. October CPI rose7.7% y/yand 0.4% m/m (core +6.3% y/y, +0.3% m/m), marking the &#34;smallest annual advance since the start of the year&#34; and coming in under economist estimates of 7.9% y/y and 0.6% m/m. U.S. PPI also eased in October, advancing 8% y/y(core +6.7% y/) and 0.2% m/m (core 0% m/m) compared with economist estimates of 8.3% y/y and 0.4% m/m. The back-to-back indication of easing price pressures pushed the S&amp;P 500 higher in early November, as markets saw it as an encouraging sign that the Fed might resort to less aggressive tightening in the months ahead and potentially achieve a soft-landing that could be beneficial to the valuation of risky assets that have been roiled across the board this year.</p><p>But investors were quickly sent back to the sidelines after stronger-than-expectedU.S. retail sales data for October indicated that the economy was still running hot, while Fed officials rushed to warn markets that &#34;inflation remains much too high for comfort&#34; and there is &#34;still a long way to go&#34; on keeping decades-high price increases under control. But a deeper look into the drivers of retail sales increases would suggest that consumer purchasing power is starting to feel the pinch of both rising inflation and interest rates, and the volume of sales is likely deteriorating too since the October figure of 1.3% is not adjusted for inflation.</p><p>As discussed in one of our recent coverages, the biggest driver of October&#39;s retail sales growth was on basic necessities like food and energy. Meanwhile, spending on discretionary goods like consumer electronics and apparel saw a marked decline, indicating that consumer purchasing power is waning on the back of surging inflation and tightening financial conditions:</p><blockquote>Meanwhile, retailers of discretionary goods such as apparel, consumer electronics, and sporting goods saw a sales decline of more than 2% over the same period. The results imply continued weakening in consumer purchasing power as inflationary pressures persist, while retailers of discretionary goods are looking to lure buyers ahead of the holiday shopping season with price cuts and steep discounts in an attempt to clear inventories.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: &#34;2 Retail Stocks to Watch After Retail Sales Rose in October - We are Watching Amazon and Apple&#34;</blockquote><p>The shift in consumer behavior in response to mounting macroeconomic uncertainties ahead is also telling of the impending demand slowdown over the coming months. Consumer credit card debt is fast approaching the pre-pandemic peak of $916 billion as of the end of September, and the continuation of this trend is further corroborated by recent observations by retailer Macy&#39;s (M), which saw its customers &#34;building larger balances on credit cards&#34;. The latest data shows that Americans&#39; credit card debt has increased by 15% y/y, the fastest pace in two decades while card borrowing costs topped 19%, a level not seen in 40 years.</p><p>The impending slowdown in demand and spending is further supported by the recent rise in jobless claims and contraction in business activity. U.S. jobless claims topped 240,000 during the week ended November 19th, topping consensus estimates of 225,000 and up from 17,000 in the prior week. The jump was the highest in months, a potential sign that the labor market might be cooling as a result of recent mass layoffs across big tech, though economists are also cautioning effects of seasonal attrition, which introduces a &#34;great deal of volatility into this data&#34;. The U.S. job market has remained stubbornly resilient despite the Fed&#39;s implementation of aggressive tools to slow the economy this year, with the jobless rate still at a 50-year low of3.7%:</p><blockquote>Tech companies represent about 2% of all employment in the country, said Richardson. That compares with 11% for the leisure and hospitality industry, which is still struggling to hire workers, she added.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Bloomberg</blockquote><blockquote>The broad takeaway is a job market that&#39;s cooling albeit not very quickly. That lines up with Jerome Powell&#39;s characterization earlier this week, when the Fed chair acknowledged conditions haven&#39;t softened yet in an &#34;obvious&#34; way and said the central bank is eyeing a higher peak interest rate than it was two months ago.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Bloomberg</blockquote><p>But added softness in business activity indicates that even &#34;some of the more resilient parts of the economy&#34; are undoubtedly showing cracks as a result of the Fed&#39;s aggressive policy stance deployed this year. The S&amp;P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI, which measures activity across the American private sector, saw a &#34;solid contraction&#34; this month. The index reached the &#34;second lowest level&#34; since the onset of the pandemic and imitates the dire business environment in 2009. Managers reported slowing demand and new orders due to the effects of &#34;rising interest rates, economic uncertainty and the lingering effects of still elevated inflation&#34;. Consistent with commentary gathered in the latest third quarter earnings season, promotional offers are gaining momentum across suppliers, factories and service providers to &#34;help boost flagging sales&#34;, which is poised to weigh on private sector earnings over coming months.</p><p>Although easing inflationary pressures is a welcomed sight, recent data points to rapid unravelling of an economy that is likely headed towards recession. Minutes from the FOMC meeting in November indicated that policymakers are now seeing a 50/50 risk of recession within the next year, compared with a more aggressive forecast of65%on Wall Street and as much as100%by a Bloomberg Economics model.</p><p><b>What the Fed Says</b></p><p>Amidst the paradox between recent market optimism and a rapidly deteriorating macro backdrop, the Federal Reserve is sticking to its hawkish policy stance in hopes of preventing an unravelling of the work done to date to quell inflation. Recall Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#39;s stern remarks on managing market expectations during the post-meeting conference in November:</p><blockquote>CHRISTOPHER RUGABER. Great, and just a quick follow. It looks like stock and bond markets are reacting positively to your announcement so far. Is that something you wanted to see? Is that a problem or what-how that might affect your future policy to see this positive reaction?</blockquote><blockquote>CHAIR POWELL. We&#39;re not targeting any one or two particular things. Our message should be-what I&#39;m trying to do is make sure that our message is clear, which is that we think we have a ways to go, we have some ground to cover with interest rates before we get to, before we get to that level of interest rates that we think is sufficiently restrictive…If you look at the-I have a table of the last 12 months of 12-month readings, and there&#39;s really no pattern there. We&#39;re exactly where we were a year ago. So I would also say, it&#39;s premature to discuss pausing. And it&#39;s not something that we&#39;re thinking about. That&#39;s really not a conversation to be had now. We have a ways to go. And the last thing I&#39;ll say is that I would want people to understand our commitment to getting this done and to not making the mistake of not doing enough or the mistake of withdrawing our strong policy and doing that too soon. So those-I control those messages, and that&#39;s my job.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Transcript of Chair Powell&#39;s Press Conference, November 2, 2022</blockquote><p>And the same policy stance has been proclaimed unanimously across commentary from Fed officials as of late, with many sticking to the narrative that there is still &#34;a long way to go&#34; when it comes to quelling inflation. Despite acknowledging that the &#34;lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation&#34; are now materializing, which draws the need to start considering a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes, policymakers remain fixed on tightening policy into restrictive territory, nonetheless. The hawkish commentary maintained indicates that &#34;the Fed is likely to lean against easing financial conditions&#34; despite recent data supporting that the economy is slowing. Specifically, a slowing economy is what the Fed essentially wants to ensure inflation is reined in. The intention of continued hawkishness is to prevent markets from mistaking any potential near-term deceleration in the pace of rate increases with a reversal of the economy&#39;s current slowdown.:</p><blockquote>The big picture illustrates that the Fed intends to slow down in order to allow more time for lags to operate and cumulative tightening to date to show up in the data. The hawkish talk from Chair Powell and many Fed officials subsequently is likely intended to provide air cover for the slowing to take place without an excessive easing of financial conditions.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Bloomberg</blockquote><p><b>What the Past Says</b></p><p>While continued market volatility in the near-term is almost certain, when the market might bottom remains a big question mark. The Fed&#39;s monetary policy tightening campaign implemented this year is the most aggressive in 40-years, but the economy&#39;s relative resilience this time around when compared to the past suggests that some macroeconomic factors have inevitably changed.</p><p>For instance, technology plays a bigger role in today&#39;s economic development, while simpler factors like consumer behavior and the social construct&#39;s role in the global macro economy have also evolved significantly in the past decade alone. The recent COVID pandemic and the ensuing disruptions to businesses and global supply chains has also injected further complexity into today&#39;s macroeconomic conditions compared to past economic downturns, inflationary environments, and monetary policy tightening cycles. Yet, there are also many overlapping similarities between today&#39;s inflationary environment and monetary policy tightening cycles compared to ones in the past that could potentially shed some light on where the economy stands today and what potentially lies ahead.</p><p><b>The &#34;Global Recession&#34; in the 1970s to 1980s</b></p><p><b>Context</b>. Inflation reached double-digits in the U.S. and across major economies during the 1980s. Similar to today&#39;s situation, soaring food and energy prices were culprit to runaway inflation at the time. The back-to-back energy crisis stemming from the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s and the Iranian Revolution later the same decade, which resulted in a rapid decline in supplies, pushed oil prices up by as much as fourfold at the time.</p><p>Inflation topped 12% in 1974 with the Fed funds rate rising from 7% to 16% by early 1975, pushing the economy into recession. A stark Fed pivot followed with the Fed funds rate cut to 5.25% by April 1975, causing inflation to return while growth remained stagnate. By the time the second energy crisis came around, accommodative policies were deployed by the Fed in hopes of countering unemployment, but backfired by worsening the pace of price increases - inflation rose from below 5% in early 1976 prior to the second energy crisis resulting from the Iranian Revolution, to 7% by 1979. The Federal Funds Rate was pushed from 6.9% to 10% over the same period in hopes of stamping out inflationary pressure without &#34;stifling fragile economic growth&#34; at the time, but to no avail, which led to an extended period of stagflation instead and pushed the economy into recession again.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening</b>. The so-called &#34;stop-go policy&#34; during the 1970s came to an end when Paul Volcker took office as Fed Chair in 1979. Volcker made quelling inflation a priority, &#34;even if it came at the detriment of short-term employment&#34;. To some extent, this is similar to Fed Chair Powell&#39;s commitment to arresting decades-high inflation &#34;even if doing so risks an economic downturn&#34;.</p><p>Inflation had already entered double-digits at 11% when Volcker became Fed Chair, while America&#39;s jobless rate was inching close to 6% near the end of the 1970s. Fed rate hikes continued, pushing the economy into deep recession by 1982 with the unemployment rate reaching 11%. Over a three-year span, the Volker-led Fed pushed its benchmark rate as high as 20% and stayed in the double-digit range until inflation had fallen to 5% by late 1982. The Fed pivoted then with rates declining to single-digits, alleviating unemployment from the peak of 11% to 8% by 1983.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom</b>. The S&amp;P 500 traded at single-digit(7.4x to 9.0x) estimated earnings when Volcker led an aggressive quantitative tightening cycle, which was reflective of the lower value of future cash flows. The market subsequently recovered when it became structurally clear that double-digit inflation was put away for good in the latter half of the 1980s.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes</b>. The stop-go monetary policy implemented in the 1970s has been largely viewed as a policy mistake today:</p><blockquote>In the 1970s, the Fed pursued what economists would call &#34;stop-go&#34; monetary policy, which alternated between fighting high unemployment and high inflation. During the &#34;go&#34; periods, the Fed lowered interest rates to loosen the money supply and target lower unemployment. During the &#34;stop&#34; periods, when inflation mounted, the Fed would raise interest rates to reduce inflationary pressure.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Federal Reserve History</blockquote><p>The on-and-off tightening eventually let inflation and unemployment run loose through the decade. Today, Fed Chair Powell looks to be taking a page from the 1970s on managing risks of runaway inflation, cautioning against a premature loosening of monetary policies even if economic recession is becoming a certain possibility.</p><blockquote>We are not trying to provoke, and I don&#39;t think we will need to provoke, a recession,&#34; Powell said at a hearing before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, although he acknowledged that a recession was &#34;certainly a possibility&#34; and events in the last few months around the world had made it more difficult to reduce inflation without causing one</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Reuters</blockquote><p><b>Greenspan Tightening 1999 to 2000</b></p><p><b>Context.</b> The Federal Reserve had resorted to monetary easing in 1998 as a pre-emptive measure to shore up U.S. growth&#34;in the face of economic turmoil overseas&#34; at the time, even though unemployment was at a historical low rate of 4.5%. But by 1999, it was clear the U.S. economy was booming, exhibiting a combination of robust consumer demand and job market, while inflation remained in check. This led the Fed to reverse courseunder Alan Greenspan leadership, and aboard a rate hike cycle that consisted of a 175 bps increases in 1999 from 4.75% to 6.5% by mid-2000.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening.</b> The 1999 tightening cycle was largely viewed as the Fed&#39;s intention to &#34;protect consumers and financial markets from something it has yet to see - a substantial rise in inflationary pressures&#34;. Inflation was largely flat at the time, while GDP growth almos thalved from 4.3% in the first quarter to 2.3% in the second quarter at the time.</p><p>By mid-2000, the Fed funds rate had reached 6.5%. Coinciding with the dotcom bubble burst that led to severe market instability, fears that continued tightening would slow the U.S. economy into recession had escalated. A Fed pivot ensued with rates cutting back to the 3% range, followed by further reductions in 2001 after the 9-11 World Trade Center terrorist attack that took the Fed funds rate to the 1% range.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom.</b> Over the course of the Greenspan-led &#34;flip-flop on interest rates&#34; between 1999 and 2001, stocks actually sold off even when the Fed pivoted to monetary easing. The selloff continued into late 2002 to levels not seen since 1998.</p><p>Market instability was marked by a combination of lofty valuations in internet stocks that fell to shambles after a slew of fraudulent reporting (cue Enron) and bankruptcies surfaced, underscoring rapid erosion of investors&#39; confidence. The 9-11 terrorist attack also escalated uncertainties over the U.S. economic outlook at the time, adding pressure to the market downturn at the time. The S&amp;P 500 bottomed by late 2002, trading at double-digit (~30x) estimated earnings - a stark contrast to observations in the 1980s - which was consistent with record-low borrowing costs at the time.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes.</b> The low interest rates embraced by Greenspan to arrest market instability and declines was largely known as the &#34;Greenspan put&#34;, which is viewed today as a key factor that led the run-up to the 2008 housing market collapse. The Greenspan put instilled a mentality that the Fed would restore market stability in the event of declines - essentially, moral hazard - which caused &#34;excessive risk-taking in stock markets&#34;. This eventually led to high-flying valuations, particularly in internet stocks, that crashed in the 2000s. Similar happened again when financial markets collapsed in 2008.</p><p><b>The &#34;Great Recession&#34; of 2007 to 2009 and the 2008 Financial Crisis</b></p><p><b>Context.</b> Rate hikes resumed under Greenspan&#39;s leadership in 2004 when GDP growth was pushing 4% while inflation was at 2.7% and unemployment at 5.4%, showing signs of an overheating economy. Interest rates rose from 1.0% to 5.25% over the course of 17 incremental hikes between 2004 and 2006, when inflation surpassed 3%.</p><p>By 2007, GDP growth had fallen to 2%, and deteriorated rapidly to 0.1% the following year with unemployment surpassing 7% and inflation pushing 4%. The U.S. economy had effectively entered recession at the time, with unemployment reaching 10% by late 2009 fuelled by the housing bubble burst in 2008 (i.e. 2008 financial crisis). The S&amp;P 500 fell 57% over the same period, wiping out close to$15 trillion in American&#39;s net worth.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening.</b> The 2004 to 2006 tightening cycle peaked with the Fed funds rate at 5.25%, but was insufficient in stamping out inflation and keeping unemployment at bay. This effectively drove the U.S. economy into recession by 2007, with a combination of fiscal and monetary policy easing implemented under the leadership of then-president George W. Bush and then-Fed-Chair Ben Bernanke with aims of shoring up the economy. The 2008 financial crisis ensuing from the housing bubble burst that left &#34;trillions of dollars of worthless investments in subprime mortgages&#34; also compounded pains.</p><p>By the end of 2008, the Fed funds rate had already been cut to the0% to 0.25%range to stem the economy from unravelling further. The FOMC had intended to keep the Fed funds rate &#34;at exceptionally low levels for some time and then for an extended period&#34; at the time, and the near-zero range eventually held until 2015. Monetary policy under Bernanke&#39;s leadership was focused on the &#34;use [of the FOMC&#39;s] policy statement to provide forward guidance for the federal funds rate&#34;, which helped manage market&#39;s understanding of economic and financial conditions during the Great Recession.</p><p>The Fed also implemented &#34;large scale asset purchase&#34; (&#34;LSAP&#34;) programs at the time to ensure &#34;longer-term public and private borrowing rates&#34; were kept at low levels in alignment with the near-zero Fed funds rate. This included the Fed&#39;s buyback of mortgage-backed securities (&#34;MBS&#34;) and Treasuries at the time to &#34;reduce the cost and increase the availability of credit for home purchases&#34; - a detrimental corner of the market during the financial crisis. The LSAP program is also similar to the MBS and Treasury buybacks implemented by the Fed at the onset of the COVID pandemic in2020to &#34;help ensure chaotic markets function properly [and] ensure credit flows to corporations as well as state and local governments&#34;.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom.</b> The S&amp;P 500 fell 57% between October 2007 and March 2009, though the economy remained weak with unemployment still on the run towards 9.5% in June 2009 before peaking at 10% in October 2009. The index was trading at more than 70x estimated earnings at its trough in March 2009, which was consistent with the hit on corporate fundamental performance across the board, as well as record-low borrowing costs at the 0% to 0.25% range. The valuation multiple moderated to the 20x-range of forward earnings by 2010 as corporate fundamentals started to recover, while the Fed funds rate was held steady at the near-zero range.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes.</b> As discussed in the earlier section, the housing bubble burst that also contributed to the Global Recession from 2007 to 2009 was likely partially driven by market moral hazard instilled by the Greenspan put. Recall that Bernanke also sought to rapid rate cuts between 2007 and 2008 in response to deteriorating macro conditions and the sliding market, adopting a similar strategy as Greenspan that &#34;may have been a catalyst contributing to the conditions of the 2008 financial crisis&#34;.</p><p>However, Bernanke&#39;s subsequent adherence to low interest rates for an extended period, as well as bank bailouts that cost as much as$700 billion, and other monetary easing policies such as the LSAP program ($1.75 trillion) was key to the long, yet stable market recovery in the years that followed.</p><p><b>The COVID Pandemic</b></p><p><b>Context.</b> Fed rate hikes resumed in 2015 under Fed Chair Janet Yellen after economic growth showed an extended period of stabilization in the 2% range, while inflation was flat with unemployment at 5%. The hikes continued even after Jerome Powell took over as Fed Chair in 2018 until the Fed funds rate reached 2.5% by the end of the same year.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening.</b> The Federal Reserve resumed monetary policy tightening in 2015 upon evidence of &#34;improvement in the labor market [and reasonable confidence] that inflation would move back to its 2% objective over the medium term&#34;. As mentioned in the earlier section, unemployment had fallen to 5% in 2015 from the peak of 10% during late 2009. The intention was to pursue rate hikes while also maintaining an accommodative policy stance to &#34;support further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2% inflation&#34;.</p><p>The Fed pivoted to rate cuts by the summer of 2019 after the global equity market lost close to $7 trillion of its value by the end of 2018. However, GDP maintained at the 2%-range at the time, while unemployment was at 3.5% and inflation inched up to 1.9%, which stoked concerns of an eventual economic downturn. Rates were cut from the peak of 2.5% in late 2018 to 1.75% by late 2019. Rapid easing took place with rates sliding to the 0% to 0.25% range at the onset of the COVID pandemic in March 2020.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom.</b> More than $7 trillion in global market value was lost in 2018, with the S&amp;P 500 giving up close to 10% of its value (or almost 18% from the 2018 peak in September) before finding bottom near year-end. The index was trading at about 20x forward earnings at the time, which was consistent with rising, yet still low, interest rates at the time, relative to past financial crises.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes</b>. Market critics have viewed the 2015 rate hike cycle as &#34;premature&#34;, given inflation was still struggling to climb back towards the 2% Fed target at the time. It was not until 2018 when inflation topped 2%, which also coincided with market&#39;s negative reaction to rising borrowing costs following the preceding years of a near-zero Fed funds rate.</p><p><b>What Exactly is Valuation Composed of?</b></p><p>Before drawing on past economic cycles to gauge forward expectations, we turn to basic valuation theory to understand the interaction between key driving factors, including interest rates, inflation, unemployment and GDP. Most of the time, when we think of valuation, we think of the fundamental leg (e.g. growth, earnings, cash flows, etc.) and the valuation multiple (which is influenced by cost of capital / discount rate). But in economic theory, valuation can also be split into the following two components: steady-state firm value + future value creation.</p><p><b>Steady-State Firm Value</b></p><p>The steady-state value is defined as the value of the firm when &#34;NOPAT (net operating profit after tax) is sustainable indefinitely and incremental investments will neither add, nor subtract, value&#34;. This does not necessarily mean the point at which a company grows at 0% forever, but rather the point of growth that stays constant regardless of whether incremental investments are made (i.e. it could be a steady-state perpetual growth or declining rate).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/578dbfd401111f95b82426bc244ff6c8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"67\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steady-State Value Formula (Valuation Theory)</p><p>One way to depict steady-state value is via the steady-state firm value P/E ratio, which is defined as 1 divided by cost of capital:</p><blockquote>A company can continue to grow earnings as it invests at the cost of capital. It will just fail to create value, and hence should trade at its steady-state worth. We can readily translate from the steady-state value to a steady-state price-earnings multiple, which is the reciprocal of the cost of [capital].</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Credit Suisse</blockquote><p>The intuition is to find the valuation multiple (i.e. P/E ratio, in this case) reflective of the point at which continued investments at the cost of capital will continue to drive earnings growth, but not necessarily yield any incremental value creation, and hence stay at a steady-state of &#34;1&#34;.</p><p>To gauge where the market&#39;s steady-state value might be headed, we turn to key driving factor, cost of capital. Cost of capital is essentially the borrowing cost, which can be benchmarked against the Fed funds rate. Based on an understanding of past economic cycles, the Federal Reserve today is likely leaning towards the Volcker era, with a sprinkle of Bernanke.</p><p>What this means is that the Fed&#39;s commitment to taming inflation - even if it comes at the cost of some near-term economic pain - will eventually lead to more rate hikes in coming months, especially as inflation today remains far from the 2% target. This is consistent with the growing drumbeat of calls by Fed officials to raise rates into &#34;restrictive territory&#34; and holding it there until there is structural evidence inflation is back on track towards the committee&#39;s target range. To prevent further policy mistakes (we say &#34;further&#34; since the whole &#34;transitory inflation&#34; narrative last year obviously did not work out), responding to recent signs of slowing demand with a Fed pivot is essentially off the table, as implementing such as policy would likely be begging for a repeat of the &#34;stop-go&#34; disaster in the 1970s before Volcker. At best, the Fed will likely stick to what it has been doing at recent meetings - setting clean and clear forward expectations for markets like Bernanke had. In today&#39;s case, this means there will be more tightening in financial conditions that could potentially push the terminal rate higher, while keeping in mind of the &#34;effects of lags in monetary policy&#34; and start considering a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.</p><p>Traders are largely expecting a moderation in the pace of rate hikes from the jumbo 75 bps seen over the summer and fall, to a half-point increase at the coming December meeting, which would bring the Fed funds rate range from the current 3.75% to 4%, to 4.25% to 4.5%. The terminal rate is expected to reach 5% to 5.25%based on current prices on 1H23 Fed swaps. Substituting the estimated terminal rate of about 5% plus an additional percentage point to account for forward market risk premium (reflective of difference between 1-year Treasury yield of about 4.75% today and the current Fed funds rate range of 3.75% and 4%) as proxy for market cost of capital in gauging the steady-state firm value P/E ratio would yield about 17x. The S&amp;P 500, which can be viewed as a proxy for the weighted average of its constituents&#39; respective valuations, currently trades at about 20x estimated earnings. If market steady-state firm value is to be adjusted as a result of continued Fed policy tightening, the S&amp;P 500 could potentially move another leg lower by as much as 15% between now and when the Fed funds rate peaks in the current tightening cycle, which is estimated to occur by mid-2023.</p><p>But there are a myriad of other factors that could impact where the so-called steady-state firm value is headed as Fed tightening continues over coming months, including economic growth and investor sentiment on a broader basis. This is consistent with the observation discussed in earlier sections that market bottomed in March 2009 even though the economy continued to deteriorate with unemployment hitting trough at 10% seven months later in October 2009. This could both be reflective of the fact that market is forward looking (or priced at estimated earnings and forward macro expectations) and/or the lag effect in which monetary policy works, among other factors. What this essentially means is that while rate hikes are expected to peak by mid-2023, it does not necessarily mean that is also when the market will bottom. But nonetheless, even if it is almost impossible to gauge the exact timing, it is more likely that not that the market is skewed towards further downside risks through the first quarter of 2023 at the minimum.</p><p>In addition to the steady-state P/E ratio method, the Gordon growth model is another way to gauge steady-state firm value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97b0f365e67a424db79cb49516d8b5f7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"74\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Gordon Growth Model (Valuation Theory)</p><p>The key assumption here other than cost of capital is GDP growth. GDP growth is typically used as a key benchmark to gauge the implied perpetual growth of a company, with addition consideration of the maturity of its industry as well as other company-specific factors such as market leadership, competitive advantages, and/or market share:</p><blockquote>Companies operating in industries that are higher growth in nature are typically valued at a perpetual growth rate closer to or more than GDP, given their greater contributions to economic growth. Alternatively, companies operating in lower growth and/or mature industries are typically allocated a lower perpetual growth rate.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: &#34;Shorting Tesla: Bridging Lofty Valuations to Economics&#34;</blockquote><p>As discussed in the earlier section, demand is likely to show a marked slowdown in coming months as consumer purchasing power wanes, especially if unemployment worsens, which will lead to further deteriorating in economic growth. Even though the labor market has remained largely resilient despite the recent slew of high-paid tech layoffs (accounts foronly ~2%of total U.S. employment), consumer weakness is expected to tame demand further and eventually hit corporate earnings, potentially resulting in more cost-driven job cuts. This is further corroborated by the gradual uptick in recent jobless claimsas well as jobless rate to &#34;3.7%from a more than five-decade low&#34;. This means GDP is likely to slow as interest rates increase, widening the spread between cost of capital and growth in the denominator of the Gordon growth model, and inadvertently, diminishing the steady-state firm value.</p><p><b>Future Value Creation Premium</b></p><p>The future value creation premium accounts for the incremental value that additional investments at the cost of capital would earn (i.e. return on capital), and also takes into consideration the time period in which this value-creating opportunity would last.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08bfdfec8d89633ac41365f0fcd39554\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"48\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Future Value Creation Formula (Valuation Theory)</p><p>This is essentially a premium to the steady-state firm value, and explains the lofty valuations relative to broader markets observed in certain stocks, such as Apple(AAPL), Tesla(TSLA) and Snowflake(SNOW), today. Admittedly, these companies have either or all of outperforming balance sheets, profit margins, and/or growth prospects relative to peers, but not all are valued in proportion to the mean growth-valuation ratio observed among their respective peer groups.</p><p>In addition to the &#34;competitive advantage period&#34;, which measures the anticipated time period in which the added value-creating opportunity would last, key assumptions in deriving future value creation premium is return on capital and cost of capital. And return on capital can be substituted by anticipated economic expansion, or GDP growth - when the economy is good, growth and profit margins will likely perform better, and vice versa. But as discussed in the earlier section, GDP growth is likely skewed to the downside within the foreseeable future as demand continues to slow and profit margins get squeezed as a result of high input costs, and near-term requirements for more-than-usual promotional offers to offload excess product inventories.</p><p>Paired with the anticipation for greater increases to the cost of capital as a result of Fed hawkishness that will more likely than not continue for a while longer, the cost-return spread in the numerator of the future value creation component of valuation is poised to narrow. And as cost of capital continues to increase, the denominator will also expand, hence diminishing the future value creation component of broader market valuations, which corroborates the expectation for more downside potential within the near-term.</p><p><b>Implications for the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 - Is the Bottom Near?</b></p><p>Based on valuation theory, and the anticipation for sustained hawkish Fed sentiment drawn from historical observations, the broader market is likely to see further volatility ahead as valuations adjust to rising rates and declining demand. While the timing at which markets will bottom remains uncertain, we are of the view that company fundamentals are only just starting to feel the impact of consumer weakness, which points to further value erosion through 1H23.</p><p>Specifically, consumer spending has remained resilient through the first half of 2022 despite deteriorating sentiment due to surging inflation and rising borrowing costs. But headed into the first half of the fourth quarter, declining business activity and warnings of a marked slowdown among consumer-centric industries such as retail underscore that waning consumer sentiment is now really materializing into real weakness. This is further supported by the consistent drop in American household savings and rise in credit card debt, among other observations, discussed earlier on in this analysis.</p><p>And a specific note to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ: QQQ/NDX), constituents&#39; valuations are likely to be hit harder compared to those in the S&amp;P 500 given their cash flows are further out (with some still in pre-revenue phase and/or unprofitable) from realization and subject to a heavier discount as costs of capital increase. The index also consists of constituents with some of the biggest valuation premiums given lofty forward growth expectations previously priced in that may not materialize as expected within the foreseeable future, thus pointing to greater vulnerability to downside risks ahead.</p><p>And given risks of further macro deterioration are now skewed higher with recent economic data pointing to a moderation in the labor market, while monetary policy tightening continues to flow through different corners of the economy, the ensuing rise in the likelihood of a recession will likely take the market a leg lower through the first half of 2023, even if we start to see structural easing in price pressures.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-27 12:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560523-heres-why-we-think-spy-and-qqq-risks-are-skewed-to-the-downside><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryEquities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY up 13% and QQQ up 8% QTD.There has also been some cautious optimism among investors on signs of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560523-heres-why-we-think-spy-and-qqq-risks-are-skewed-to-the-downside\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560523-heres-why-we-think-spy-and-qqq-risks-are-skewed-to-the-downside","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110767793","content_text":"SummaryEquities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY up 13% and QQQ up 8% QTD.There has also been some cautious optimism among investors on signs of easing inflation and the Fed's consideration for a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.However, company fundamentals that were previously resilient are now just starting to show the first signs of cracks, while continued borrowing cost increases will only weigh on valuations further.The following deep dive analysis will walk through past economic cycles, valuation theory, and recent economic data to gauge where Fed policy might be headed and the related implications on SPY and QQQ valuations as we head into the new year.The S&P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY/SP500) has gradually climbed more than 12% since the fourth quarter began, and closed at a two-month high during Wednesday's (November 23) session after a flurry of economic data released in recent weeks pointed to easing price pressures and market slowdown that could harbinger a dovish Fed policy stance over coming months. October CPI and PPI showed a stronger reduction in prices than expected, while recent data on jobless claims, retail sales, and business activity also pointed to a slowdown in demand, especially for discretionary goods.Despite hawkish commentary from Fed officials still, investors are responding positively to remarks that the pace of rate hikes might be moderating from the recent slew of jumbo 75 bps increases. This has compounded market optimism on a potential shift on the Fed's policy tightening trajectory to a more dovish stance, with investors' now focusing more on a potential slowdown in the pace of coming rate hikes than where the terminal rate might land (i.e. when the Fed might actually pivot).But from a valuation and fundamental perspective, continued rate hikes are poised to squeeze multiples further into contraction, while ensuing deteriorating of financial conditions put corporate earnings at risk. With slowing demand, and mounting macroeconomic uncertainties over the Fed's tightening trajectory, when inflation would peak, and whether a recession is imminently still at large, volatility will likely continue to overpower markets. While it is difficult to gauge when exactly markets might bottom as macro deterioration gains momentum, the following analysis will turn to past tightening cycles and inflation environments, as well as basic valuation theory to explore where the market climate stands today and what to potentially expect over coming months.Recent Economic OverviewThe drumbeat for moderating inflation grew after CPI and PPI figures came in lower than expected. October CPI rose7.7% y/yand 0.4% m/m (core +6.3% y/y, +0.3% m/m), marking the \"smallest annual advance since the start of the year\" and coming in under economist estimates of 7.9% y/y and 0.6% m/m. U.S. PPI also eased in October, advancing 8% y/y(core +6.7% y/) and 0.2% m/m (core 0% m/m) compared with economist estimates of 8.3% y/y and 0.4% m/m. The back-to-back indication of easing price pressures pushed the S&P 500 higher in early November, as markets saw it as an encouraging sign that the Fed might resort to less aggressive tightening in the months ahead and potentially achieve a soft-landing that could be beneficial to the valuation of risky assets that have been roiled across the board this year.But investors were quickly sent back to the sidelines after stronger-than-expectedU.S. retail sales data for October indicated that the economy was still running hot, while Fed officials rushed to warn markets that \"inflation remains much too high for comfort\" and there is \"still a long way to go\" on keeping decades-high price increases under control. But a deeper look into the drivers of retail sales increases would suggest that consumer purchasing power is starting to feel the pinch of both rising inflation and interest rates, and the volume of sales is likely deteriorating too since the October figure of 1.3% is not adjusted for inflation.As discussed in one of our recent coverages, the biggest driver of October's retail sales growth was on basic necessities like food and energy. Meanwhile, spending on discretionary goods like consumer electronics and apparel saw a marked decline, indicating that consumer purchasing power is waning on the back of surging inflation and tightening financial conditions:Meanwhile, retailers of discretionary goods such as apparel, consumer electronics, and sporting goods saw a sales decline of more than 2% over the same period. The results imply continued weakening in consumer purchasing power as inflationary pressures persist, while retailers of discretionary goods are looking to lure buyers ahead of the holiday shopping season with price cuts and steep discounts in an attempt to clear inventories.Source: \"2 Retail Stocks to Watch After Retail Sales Rose in October - We are Watching Amazon and Apple\"The shift in consumer behavior in response to mounting macroeconomic uncertainties ahead is also telling of the impending demand slowdown over the coming months. Consumer credit card debt is fast approaching the pre-pandemic peak of $916 billion as of the end of September, and the continuation of this trend is further corroborated by recent observations by retailer Macy's (M), which saw its customers \"building larger balances on credit cards\". The latest data shows that Americans' credit card debt has increased by 15% y/y, the fastest pace in two decades while card borrowing costs topped 19%, a level not seen in 40 years.The impending slowdown in demand and spending is further supported by the recent rise in jobless claims and contraction in business activity. U.S. jobless claims topped 240,000 during the week ended November 19th, topping consensus estimates of 225,000 and up from 17,000 in the prior week. The jump was the highest in months, a potential sign that the labor market might be cooling as a result of recent mass layoffs across big tech, though economists are also cautioning effects of seasonal attrition, which introduces a \"great deal of volatility into this data\". The U.S. job market has remained stubbornly resilient despite the Fed's implementation of aggressive tools to slow the economy this year, with the jobless rate still at a 50-year low of3.7%:Tech companies represent about 2% of all employment in the country, said Richardson. That compares with 11% for the leisure and hospitality industry, which is still struggling to hire workers, she added.Source:BloombergThe broad takeaway is a job market that's cooling albeit not very quickly. That lines up with Jerome Powell's characterization earlier this week, when the Fed chair acknowledged conditions haven't softened yet in an \"obvious\" way and said the central bank is eyeing a higher peak interest rate than it was two months ago.Source:BloombergBut added softness in business activity indicates that even \"some of the more resilient parts of the economy\" are undoubtedly showing cracks as a result of the Fed's aggressive policy stance deployed this year. The S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI, which measures activity across the American private sector, saw a \"solid contraction\" this month. The index reached the \"second lowest level\" since the onset of the pandemic and imitates the dire business environment in 2009. Managers reported slowing demand and new orders due to the effects of \"rising interest rates, economic uncertainty and the lingering effects of still elevated inflation\". Consistent with commentary gathered in the latest third quarter earnings season, promotional offers are gaining momentum across suppliers, factories and service providers to \"help boost flagging sales\", which is poised to weigh on private sector earnings over coming months.Although easing inflationary pressures is a welcomed sight, recent data points to rapid unravelling of an economy that is likely headed towards recession. Minutes from the FOMC meeting in November indicated that policymakers are now seeing a 50/50 risk of recession within the next year, compared with a more aggressive forecast of65%on Wall Street and as much as100%by a Bloomberg Economics model.What the Fed SaysAmidst the paradox between recent market optimism and a rapidly deteriorating macro backdrop, the Federal Reserve is sticking to its hawkish policy stance in hopes of preventing an unravelling of the work done to date to quell inflation. Recall Fed Chair Jerome Powell's stern remarks on managing market expectations during the post-meeting conference in November:CHRISTOPHER RUGABER. Great, and just a quick follow. It looks like stock and bond markets are reacting positively to your announcement so far. Is that something you wanted to see? Is that a problem or what-how that might affect your future policy to see this positive reaction?CHAIR POWELL. We're not targeting any one or two particular things. Our message should be-what I'm trying to do is make sure that our message is clear, which is that we think we have a ways to go, we have some ground to cover with interest rates before we get to, before we get to that level of interest rates that we think is sufficiently restrictive…If you look at the-I have a table of the last 12 months of 12-month readings, and there's really no pattern there. We're exactly where we were a year ago. So I would also say, it's premature to discuss pausing. And it's not something that we're thinking about. That's really not a conversation to be had now. We have a ways to go. And the last thing I'll say is that I would want people to understand our commitment to getting this done and to not making the mistake of not doing enough or the mistake of withdrawing our strong policy and doing that too soon. So those-I control those messages, and that's my job.Source:Transcript of Chair Powell's Press Conference, November 2, 2022And the same policy stance has been proclaimed unanimously across commentary from Fed officials as of late, with many sticking to the narrative that there is still \"a long way to go\" when it comes to quelling inflation. Despite acknowledging that the \"lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation\" are now materializing, which draws the need to start considering a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes, policymakers remain fixed on tightening policy into restrictive territory, nonetheless. The hawkish commentary maintained indicates that \"the Fed is likely to lean against easing financial conditions\" despite recent data supporting that the economy is slowing. Specifically, a slowing economy is what the Fed essentially wants to ensure inflation is reined in. The intention of continued hawkishness is to prevent markets from mistaking any potential near-term deceleration in the pace of rate increases with a reversal of the economy's current slowdown.:The big picture illustrates that the Fed intends to slow down in order to allow more time for lags to operate and cumulative tightening to date to show up in the data. The hawkish talk from Chair Powell and many Fed officials subsequently is likely intended to provide air cover for the slowing to take place without an excessive easing of financial conditions.Source:BloombergWhat the Past SaysWhile continued market volatility in the near-term is almost certain, when the market might bottom remains a big question mark. The Fed's monetary policy tightening campaign implemented this year is the most aggressive in 40-years, but the economy's relative resilience this time around when compared to the past suggests that some macroeconomic factors have inevitably changed.For instance, technology plays a bigger role in today's economic development, while simpler factors like consumer behavior and the social construct's role in the global macro economy have also evolved significantly in the past decade alone. The recent COVID pandemic and the ensuing disruptions to businesses and global supply chains has also injected further complexity into today's macroeconomic conditions compared to past economic downturns, inflationary environments, and monetary policy tightening cycles. Yet, there are also many overlapping similarities between today's inflationary environment and monetary policy tightening cycles compared to ones in the past that could potentially shed some light on where the economy stands today and what potentially lies ahead.The \"Global Recession\" in the 1970s to 1980sContext. Inflation reached double-digits in the U.S. and across major economies during the 1980s. Similar to today's situation, soaring food and energy prices were culprit to runaway inflation at the time. The back-to-back energy crisis stemming from the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s and the Iranian Revolution later the same decade, which resulted in a rapid decline in supplies, pushed oil prices up by as much as fourfold at the time.Inflation topped 12% in 1974 with the Fed funds rate rising from 7% to 16% by early 1975, pushing the economy into recession. A stark Fed pivot followed with the Fed funds rate cut to 5.25% by April 1975, causing inflation to return while growth remained stagnate. By the time the second energy crisis came around, accommodative policies were deployed by the Fed in hopes of countering unemployment, but backfired by worsening the pace of price increases - inflation rose from below 5% in early 1976 prior to the second energy crisis resulting from the Iranian Revolution, to 7% by 1979. The Federal Funds Rate was pushed from 6.9% to 10% over the same period in hopes of stamping out inflationary pressure without \"stifling fragile economic growth\" at the time, but to no avail, which led to an extended period of stagflation instead and pushed the economy into recession again.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The so-called \"stop-go policy\" during the 1970s came to an end when Paul Volcker took office as Fed Chair in 1979. Volcker made quelling inflation a priority, \"even if it came at the detriment of short-term employment\". To some extent, this is similar to Fed Chair Powell's commitment to arresting decades-high inflation \"even if doing so risks an economic downturn\".Inflation had already entered double-digits at 11% when Volcker became Fed Chair, while America's jobless rate was inching close to 6% near the end of the 1970s. Fed rate hikes continued, pushing the economy into deep recession by 1982 with the unemployment rate reaching 11%. Over a three-year span, the Volker-led Fed pushed its benchmark rate as high as 20% and stayed in the double-digit range until inflation had fallen to 5% by late 1982. The Fed pivoted then with rates declining to single-digits, alleviating unemployment from the peak of 11% to 8% by 1983.S&P 500 Bottom. The S&P 500 traded at single-digit(7.4x to 9.0x) estimated earnings when Volcker led an aggressive quantitative tightening cycle, which was reflective of the lower value of future cash flows. The market subsequently recovered when it became structurally clear that double-digit inflation was put away for good in the latter half of the 1980s.Policy mistakes. The stop-go monetary policy implemented in the 1970s has been largely viewed as a policy mistake today:In the 1970s, the Fed pursued what economists would call \"stop-go\" monetary policy, which alternated between fighting high unemployment and high inflation. During the \"go\" periods, the Fed lowered interest rates to loosen the money supply and target lower unemployment. During the \"stop\" periods, when inflation mounted, the Fed would raise interest rates to reduce inflationary pressure.Source:Federal Reserve HistoryThe on-and-off tightening eventually let inflation and unemployment run loose through the decade. Today, Fed Chair Powell looks to be taking a page from the 1970s on managing risks of runaway inflation, cautioning against a premature loosening of monetary policies even if economic recession is becoming a certain possibility.We are not trying to provoke, and I don't think we will need to provoke, a recession,\" Powell said at a hearing before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, although he acknowledged that a recession was \"certainly a possibility\" and events in the last few months around the world had made it more difficult to reduce inflation without causing oneSource:ReutersGreenspan Tightening 1999 to 2000Context. The Federal Reserve had resorted to monetary easing in 1998 as a pre-emptive measure to shore up U.S. growth\"in the face of economic turmoil overseas\" at the time, even though unemployment was at a historical low rate of 4.5%. But by 1999, it was clear the U.S. economy was booming, exhibiting a combination of robust consumer demand and job market, while inflation remained in check. This led the Fed to reverse courseunder Alan Greenspan leadership, and aboard a rate hike cycle that consisted of a 175 bps increases in 1999 from 4.75% to 6.5% by mid-2000.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The 1999 tightening cycle was largely viewed as the Fed's intention to \"protect consumers and financial markets from something it has yet to see - a substantial rise in inflationary pressures\". Inflation was largely flat at the time, while GDP growth almos thalved from 4.3% in the first quarter to 2.3% in the second quarter at the time.By mid-2000, the Fed funds rate had reached 6.5%. Coinciding with the dotcom bubble burst that led to severe market instability, fears that continued tightening would slow the U.S. economy into recession had escalated. A Fed pivot ensued with rates cutting back to the 3% range, followed by further reductions in 2001 after the 9-11 World Trade Center terrorist attack that took the Fed funds rate to the 1% range.S&P 500 Bottom. Over the course of the Greenspan-led \"flip-flop on interest rates\" between 1999 and 2001, stocks actually sold off even when the Fed pivoted to monetary easing. The selloff continued into late 2002 to levels not seen since 1998.Market instability was marked by a combination of lofty valuations in internet stocks that fell to shambles after a slew of fraudulent reporting (cue Enron) and bankruptcies surfaced, underscoring rapid erosion of investors' confidence. The 9-11 terrorist attack also escalated uncertainties over the U.S. economic outlook at the time, adding pressure to the market downturn at the time. The S&P 500 bottomed by late 2002, trading at double-digit (~30x) estimated earnings - a stark contrast to observations in the 1980s - which was consistent with record-low borrowing costs at the time.Policy mistakes. The low interest rates embraced by Greenspan to arrest market instability and declines was largely known as the \"Greenspan put\", which is viewed today as a key factor that led the run-up to the 2008 housing market collapse. The Greenspan put instilled a mentality that the Fed would restore market stability in the event of declines - essentially, moral hazard - which caused \"excessive risk-taking in stock markets\". This eventually led to high-flying valuations, particularly in internet stocks, that crashed in the 2000s. Similar happened again when financial markets collapsed in 2008.The \"Great Recession\" of 2007 to 2009 and the 2008 Financial CrisisContext. Rate hikes resumed under Greenspan's leadership in 2004 when GDP growth was pushing 4% while inflation was at 2.7% and unemployment at 5.4%, showing signs of an overheating economy. Interest rates rose from 1.0% to 5.25% over the course of 17 incremental hikes between 2004 and 2006, when inflation surpassed 3%.By 2007, GDP growth had fallen to 2%, and deteriorated rapidly to 0.1% the following year with unemployment surpassing 7% and inflation pushing 4%. The U.S. economy had effectively entered recession at the time, with unemployment reaching 10% by late 2009 fuelled by the housing bubble burst in 2008 (i.e. 2008 financial crisis). The S&P 500 fell 57% over the same period, wiping out close to$15 trillion in American's net worth.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The 2004 to 2006 tightening cycle peaked with the Fed funds rate at 5.25%, but was insufficient in stamping out inflation and keeping unemployment at bay. This effectively drove the U.S. economy into recession by 2007, with a combination of fiscal and monetary policy easing implemented under the leadership of then-president George W. Bush and then-Fed-Chair Ben Bernanke with aims of shoring up the economy. The 2008 financial crisis ensuing from the housing bubble burst that left \"trillions of dollars of worthless investments in subprime mortgages\" also compounded pains.By the end of 2008, the Fed funds rate had already been cut to the0% to 0.25%range to stem the economy from unravelling further. The FOMC had intended to keep the Fed funds rate \"at exceptionally low levels for some time and then for an extended period\" at the time, and the near-zero range eventually held until 2015. Monetary policy under Bernanke's leadership was focused on the \"use [of the FOMC's] policy statement to provide forward guidance for the federal funds rate\", which helped manage market's understanding of economic and financial conditions during the Great Recession.The Fed also implemented \"large scale asset purchase\" (\"LSAP\") programs at the time to ensure \"longer-term public and private borrowing rates\" were kept at low levels in alignment with the near-zero Fed funds rate. This included the Fed's buyback of mortgage-backed securities (\"MBS\") and Treasuries at the time to \"reduce the cost and increase the availability of credit for home purchases\" - a detrimental corner of the market during the financial crisis. The LSAP program is also similar to the MBS and Treasury buybacks implemented by the Fed at the onset of the COVID pandemic in2020to \"help ensure chaotic markets function properly [and] ensure credit flows to corporations as well as state and local governments\".S&P 500 Bottom. The S&P 500 fell 57% between October 2007 and March 2009, though the economy remained weak with unemployment still on the run towards 9.5% in June 2009 before peaking at 10% in October 2009. The index was trading at more than 70x estimated earnings at its trough in March 2009, which was consistent with the hit on corporate fundamental performance across the board, as well as record-low borrowing costs at the 0% to 0.25% range. The valuation multiple moderated to the 20x-range of forward earnings by 2010 as corporate fundamentals started to recover, while the Fed funds rate was held steady at the near-zero range.Policy mistakes. As discussed in the earlier section, the housing bubble burst that also contributed to the Global Recession from 2007 to 2009 was likely partially driven by market moral hazard instilled by the Greenspan put. Recall that Bernanke also sought to rapid rate cuts between 2007 and 2008 in response to deteriorating macro conditions and the sliding market, adopting a similar strategy as Greenspan that \"may have been a catalyst contributing to the conditions of the 2008 financial crisis\".However, Bernanke's subsequent adherence to low interest rates for an extended period, as well as bank bailouts that cost as much as$700 billion, and other monetary easing policies such as the LSAP program ($1.75 trillion) was key to the long, yet stable market recovery in the years that followed.The COVID PandemicContext. Fed rate hikes resumed in 2015 under Fed Chair Janet Yellen after economic growth showed an extended period of stabilization in the 2% range, while inflation was flat with unemployment at 5%. The hikes continued even after Jerome Powell took over as Fed Chair in 2018 until the Fed funds rate reached 2.5% by the end of the same year.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The Federal Reserve resumed monetary policy tightening in 2015 upon evidence of \"improvement in the labor market [and reasonable confidence] that inflation would move back to its 2% objective over the medium term\". As mentioned in the earlier section, unemployment had fallen to 5% in 2015 from the peak of 10% during late 2009. The intention was to pursue rate hikes while also maintaining an accommodative policy stance to \"support further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2% inflation\".The Fed pivoted to rate cuts by the summer of 2019 after the global equity market lost close to $7 trillion of its value by the end of 2018. However, GDP maintained at the 2%-range at the time, while unemployment was at 3.5% and inflation inched up to 1.9%, which stoked concerns of an eventual economic downturn. Rates were cut from the peak of 2.5% in late 2018 to 1.75% by late 2019. Rapid easing took place with rates sliding to the 0% to 0.25% range at the onset of the COVID pandemic in March 2020.S&P 500 Bottom. More than $7 trillion in global market value was lost in 2018, with the S&P 500 giving up close to 10% of its value (or almost 18% from the 2018 peak in September) before finding bottom near year-end. The index was trading at about 20x forward earnings at the time, which was consistent with rising, yet still low, interest rates at the time, relative to past financial crises.Policy mistakes. Market critics have viewed the 2015 rate hike cycle as \"premature\", given inflation was still struggling to climb back towards the 2% Fed target at the time. It was not until 2018 when inflation topped 2%, which also coincided with market's negative reaction to rising borrowing costs following the preceding years of a near-zero Fed funds rate.What Exactly is Valuation Composed of?Before drawing on past economic cycles to gauge forward expectations, we turn to basic valuation theory to understand the interaction between key driving factors, including interest rates, inflation, unemployment and GDP. Most of the time, when we think of valuation, we think of the fundamental leg (e.g. growth, earnings, cash flows, etc.) and the valuation multiple (which is influenced by cost of capital / discount rate). But in economic theory, valuation can also be split into the following two components: steady-state firm value + future value creation.Steady-State Firm ValueThe steady-state value is defined as the value of the firm when \"NOPAT (net operating profit after tax) is sustainable indefinitely and incremental investments will neither add, nor subtract, value\". This does not necessarily mean the point at which a company grows at 0% forever, but rather the point of growth that stays constant regardless of whether incremental investments are made (i.e. it could be a steady-state perpetual growth or declining rate).Steady-State Value Formula (Valuation Theory)One way to depict steady-state value is via the steady-state firm value P/E ratio, which is defined as 1 divided by cost of capital:A company can continue to grow earnings as it invests at the cost of capital. It will just fail to create value, and hence should trade at its steady-state worth. We can readily translate from the steady-state value to a steady-state price-earnings multiple, which is the reciprocal of the cost of [capital].Source:Credit SuisseThe intuition is to find the valuation multiple (i.e. P/E ratio, in this case) reflective of the point at which continued investments at the cost of capital will continue to drive earnings growth, but not necessarily yield any incremental value creation, and hence stay at a steady-state of \"1\".To gauge where the market's steady-state value might be headed, we turn to key driving factor, cost of capital. Cost of capital is essentially the borrowing cost, which can be benchmarked against the Fed funds rate. Based on an understanding of past economic cycles, the Federal Reserve today is likely leaning towards the Volcker era, with a sprinkle of Bernanke.What this means is that the Fed's commitment to taming inflation - even if it comes at the cost of some near-term economic pain - will eventually lead to more rate hikes in coming months, especially as inflation today remains far from the 2% target. This is consistent with the growing drumbeat of calls by Fed officials to raise rates into \"restrictive territory\" and holding it there until there is structural evidence inflation is back on track towards the committee's target range. To prevent further policy mistakes (we say \"further\" since the whole \"transitory inflation\" narrative last year obviously did not work out), responding to recent signs of slowing demand with a Fed pivot is essentially off the table, as implementing such as policy would likely be begging for a repeat of the \"stop-go\" disaster in the 1970s before Volcker. At best, the Fed will likely stick to what it has been doing at recent meetings - setting clean and clear forward expectations for markets like Bernanke had. In today's case, this means there will be more tightening in financial conditions that could potentially push the terminal rate higher, while keeping in mind of the \"effects of lags in monetary policy\" and start considering a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.Traders are largely expecting a moderation in the pace of rate hikes from the jumbo 75 bps seen over the summer and fall, to a half-point increase at the coming December meeting, which would bring the Fed funds rate range from the current 3.75% to 4%, to 4.25% to 4.5%. The terminal rate is expected to reach 5% to 5.25%based on current prices on 1H23 Fed swaps. Substituting the estimated terminal rate of about 5% plus an additional percentage point to account for forward market risk premium (reflective of difference between 1-year Treasury yield of about 4.75% today and the current Fed funds rate range of 3.75% and 4%) as proxy for market cost of capital in gauging the steady-state firm value P/E ratio would yield about 17x. The S&P 500, which can be viewed as a proxy for the weighted average of its constituents' respective valuations, currently trades at about 20x estimated earnings. If market steady-state firm value is to be adjusted as a result of continued Fed policy tightening, the S&P 500 could potentially move another leg lower by as much as 15% between now and when the Fed funds rate peaks in the current tightening cycle, which is estimated to occur by mid-2023.But there are a myriad of other factors that could impact where the so-called steady-state firm value is headed as Fed tightening continues over coming months, including economic growth and investor sentiment on a broader basis. This is consistent with the observation discussed in earlier sections that market bottomed in March 2009 even though the economy continued to deteriorate with unemployment hitting trough at 10% seven months later in October 2009. This could both be reflective of the fact that market is forward looking (or priced at estimated earnings and forward macro expectations) and/or the lag effect in which monetary policy works, among other factors. What this essentially means is that while rate hikes are expected to peak by mid-2023, it does not necessarily mean that is also when the market will bottom. But nonetheless, even if it is almost impossible to gauge the exact timing, it is more likely that not that the market is skewed towards further downside risks through the first quarter of 2023 at the minimum.In addition to the steady-state P/E ratio method, the Gordon growth model is another way to gauge steady-state firm value.Gordon Growth Model (Valuation Theory)The key assumption here other than cost of capital is GDP growth. GDP growth is typically used as a key benchmark to gauge the implied perpetual growth of a company, with addition consideration of the maturity of its industry as well as other company-specific factors such as market leadership, competitive advantages, and/or market share:Companies operating in industries that are higher growth in nature are typically valued at a perpetual growth rate closer to or more than GDP, given their greater contributions to economic growth. Alternatively, companies operating in lower growth and/or mature industries are typically allocated a lower perpetual growth rate.Source: \"Shorting Tesla: Bridging Lofty Valuations to Economics\"As discussed in the earlier section, demand is likely to show a marked slowdown in coming months as consumer purchasing power wanes, especially if unemployment worsens, which will lead to further deteriorating in economic growth. Even though the labor market has remained largely resilient despite the recent slew of high-paid tech layoffs (accounts foronly ~2%of total U.S. employment), consumer weakness is expected to tame demand further and eventually hit corporate earnings, potentially resulting in more cost-driven job cuts. This is further corroborated by the gradual uptick in recent jobless claimsas well as jobless rate to \"3.7%from a more than five-decade low\". This means GDP is likely to slow as interest rates increase, widening the spread between cost of capital and growth in the denominator of the Gordon growth model, and inadvertently, diminishing the steady-state firm value.Future Value Creation PremiumThe future value creation premium accounts for the incremental value that additional investments at the cost of capital would earn (i.e. return on capital), and also takes into consideration the time period in which this value-creating opportunity would last.Future Value Creation Formula (Valuation Theory)This is essentially a premium to the steady-state firm value, and explains the lofty valuations relative to broader markets observed in certain stocks, such as Apple(AAPL), Tesla(TSLA) and Snowflake(SNOW), today. Admittedly, these companies have either or all of outperforming balance sheets, profit margins, and/or growth prospects relative to peers, but not all are valued in proportion to the mean growth-valuation ratio observed among their respective peer groups.In addition to the \"competitive advantage period\", which measures the anticipated time period in which the added value-creating opportunity would last, key assumptions in deriving future value creation premium is return on capital and cost of capital. And return on capital can be substituted by anticipated economic expansion, or GDP growth - when the economy is good, growth and profit margins will likely perform better, and vice versa. But as discussed in the earlier section, GDP growth is likely skewed to the downside within the foreseeable future as demand continues to slow and profit margins get squeezed as a result of high input costs, and near-term requirements for more-than-usual promotional offers to offload excess product inventories.Paired with the anticipation for greater increases to the cost of capital as a result of Fed hawkishness that will more likely than not continue for a while longer, the cost-return spread in the numerator of the future value creation component of valuation is poised to narrow. And as cost of capital continues to increase, the denominator will also expand, hence diminishing the future value creation component of broader market valuations, which corroborates the expectation for more downside potential within the near-term.Implications for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 - Is the Bottom Near?Based on valuation theory, and the anticipation for sustained hawkish Fed sentiment drawn from historical observations, the broader market is likely to see further volatility ahead as valuations adjust to rising rates and declining demand. While the timing at which markets will bottom remains uncertain, we are of the view that company fundamentals are only just starting to feel the impact of consumer weakness, which points to further value erosion through 1H23.Specifically, consumer spending has remained resilient through the first half of 2022 despite deteriorating sentiment due to surging inflation and rising borrowing costs. But headed into the first half of the fourth quarter, declining business activity and warnings of a marked slowdown among consumer-centric industries such as retail underscore that waning consumer sentiment is now really materializing into real weakness. This is further supported by the consistent drop in American household savings and rise in credit card debt, among other observations, discussed earlier on in this analysis.And a specific note to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ: QQQ/NDX), constituents' valuations are likely to be hit harder compared to those in the S&P 500 given their cash flows are further out (with some still in pre-revenue phase and/or unprofitable) from realization and subject to a heavier discount as costs of capital increase. The index also consists of constituents with some of the biggest valuation premiums given lofty forward growth expectations previously priced in that may not materialize as expected within the foreseeable future, thus pointing to greater vulnerability to downside risks ahead.And given risks of further macro deterioration are now skewed higher with recent economic data pointing to a moderation in the labor market, while monetary policy tightening continues to flow through different corners of the economy, the ensuing rise in the likelihood of a recession will likely take the market a leg lower through the first half of 2023, even if we start to see structural easing in price pressures.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,"QQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966155645,"gmtCreate":1669451874487,"gmtModify":1676538198717,"author":{"id":"3586829232043276","authorId":"3586829232043276","name":"clingling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac8266443879ca0b9b00e68416a1244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586829232043276","authorIdStr":"3586829232043276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966155645","repostId":"1110767793","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110767793","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669522613,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1110767793?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-27 12:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110767793","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryEquities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Equities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY up 13% and QQQ up 8% QTD.</li><li>There has also been some cautious optimism among investors on signs of easing inflation and the Fed&#39;s consideration for a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.</li><li>However, company fundamentals that were previously resilient are now just starting to show the first signs of cracks, while continued borrowing cost increases will only weigh on valuations further.</li><li>The following deep dive analysis will walk through past economic cycles, valuation theory, and recent economic data to gauge where Fed policy might be headed and the related implications on SPY and QQQ valuations as we head into the new year.</li></ul><p>The S&amp;P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY/SP500) has gradually climbed more than 12% since the fourth quarter began, and closed at a two-month high during Wednesday&#39;s (November 23) session after a flurry of economic data released in recent weeks pointed to easing price pressures and market slowdown that could harbinger a dovish Fed policy stance over coming months. October CPI and PPI showed a stronger reduction in prices than expected, while recent data on jobless claims, retail sales, and business activity also pointed to a slowdown in demand, especially for discretionary goods.</p><p>Despite hawkish commentary from Fed officials still, investors are responding positively to remarks that the pace of rate hikes might be moderating from the recent slew of jumbo 75 bps increases. This has compounded market optimism on a potential shift on the Fed&#39;s policy tightening trajectory to a more dovish stance, with investors&#39; now focusing more on a potential slowdown in the pace of coming rate hikes than where the terminal rate might land (i.e. when the Fed might actually pivot).</p><p>But from a valuation and fundamental perspective, continued rate hikes are poised to squeeze multiples further into contraction, while ensuing deteriorating of financial conditions put corporate earnings at risk. With slowing demand, and mounting macroeconomic uncertainties over the Fed&#39;s tightening trajectory, when inflation would peak, and whether a recession is imminently still at large, volatility will likely continue to overpower markets. While it is difficult to gauge when exactly markets might bottom as macro deterioration gains momentum, the following analysis will turn to past tightening cycles and inflation environments, as well as basic valuation theory to explore where the market climate stands today and what to potentially expect over coming months.</p><p><b>Recent Economic Overview</b></p><p>The drumbeat for moderating inflation grew after CPI and PPI figures came in lower than expected. October CPI rose7.7% y/yand 0.4% m/m (core +6.3% y/y, +0.3% m/m), marking the &#34;smallest annual advance since the start of the year&#34; and coming in under economist estimates of 7.9% y/y and 0.6% m/m. U.S. PPI also eased in October, advancing 8% y/y(core +6.7% y/) and 0.2% m/m (core 0% m/m) compared with economist estimates of 8.3% y/y and 0.4% m/m. The back-to-back indication of easing price pressures pushed the S&amp;P 500 higher in early November, as markets saw it as an encouraging sign that the Fed might resort to less aggressive tightening in the months ahead and potentially achieve a soft-landing that could be beneficial to the valuation of risky assets that have been roiled across the board this year.</p><p>But investors were quickly sent back to the sidelines after stronger-than-expectedU.S. retail sales data for October indicated that the economy was still running hot, while Fed officials rushed to warn markets that &#34;inflation remains much too high for comfort&#34; and there is &#34;still a long way to go&#34; on keeping decades-high price increases under control. But a deeper look into the drivers of retail sales increases would suggest that consumer purchasing power is starting to feel the pinch of both rising inflation and interest rates, and the volume of sales is likely deteriorating too since the October figure of 1.3% is not adjusted for inflation.</p><p>As discussed in one of our recent coverages, the biggest driver of October&#39;s retail sales growth was on basic necessities like food and energy. Meanwhile, spending on discretionary goods like consumer electronics and apparel saw a marked decline, indicating that consumer purchasing power is waning on the back of surging inflation and tightening financial conditions:</p><blockquote>Meanwhile, retailers of discretionary goods such as apparel, consumer electronics, and sporting goods saw a sales decline of more than 2% over the same period. The results imply continued weakening in consumer purchasing power as inflationary pressures persist, while retailers of discretionary goods are looking to lure buyers ahead of the holiday shopping season with price cuts and steep discounts in an attempt to clear inventories.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: &#34;2 Retail Stocks to Watch After Retail Sales Rose in October - We are Watching Amazon and Apple&#34;</blockquote><p>The shift in consumer behavior in response to mounting macroeconomic uncertainties ahead is also telling of the impending demand slowdown over the coming months. Consumer credit card debt is fast approaching the pre-pandemic peak of $916 billion as of the end of September, and the continuation of this trend is further corroborated by recent observations by retailer Macy&#39;s (M), which saw its customers &#34;building larger balances on credit cards&#34;. The latest data shows that Americans&#39; credit card debt has increased by 15% y/y, the fastest pace in two decades while card borrowing costs topped 19%, a level not seen in 40 years.</p><p>The impending slowdown in demand and spending is further supported by the recent rise in jobless claims and contraction in business activity. U.S. jobless claims topped 240,000 during the week ended November 19th, topping consensus estimates of 225,000 and up from 17,000 in the prior week. The jump was the highest in months, a potential sign that the labor market might be cooling as a result of recent mass layoffs across big tech, though economists are also cautioning effects of seasonal attrition, which introduces a &#34;great deal of volatility into this data&#34;. The U.S. job market has remained stubbornly resilient despite the Fed&#39;s implementation of aggressive tools to slow the economy this year, with the jobless rate still at a 50-year low of3.7%:</p><blockquote>Tech companies represent about 2% of all employment in the country, said Richardson. That compares with 11% for the leisure and hospitality industry, which is still struggling to hire workers, she added.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Bloomberg</blockquote><blockquote>The broad takeaway is a job market that&#39;s cooling albeit not very quickly. That lines up with Jerome Powell&#39;s characterization earlier this week, when the Fed chair acknowledged conditions haven&#39;t softened yet in an &#34;obvious&#34; way and said the central bank is eyeing a higher peak interest rate than it was two months ago.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Bloomberg</blockquote><p>But added softness in business activity indicates that even &#34;some of the more resilient parts of the economy&#34; are undoubtedly showing cracks as a result of the Fed&#39;s aggressive policy stance deployed this year. The S&amp;P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI, which measures activity across the American private sector, saw a &#34;solid contraction&#34; this month. The index reached the &#34;second lowest level&#34; since the onset of the pandemic and imitates the dire business environment in 2009. Managers reported slowing demand and new orders due to the effects of &#34;rising interest rates, economic uncertainty and the lingering effects of still elevated inflation&#34;. Consistent with commentary gathered in the latest third quarter earnings season, promotional offers are gaining momentum across suppliers, factories and service providers to &#34;help boost flagging sales&#34;, which is poised to weigh on private sector earnings over coming months.</p><p>Although easing inflationary pressures is a welcomed sight, recent data points to rapid unravelling of an economy that is likely headed towards recession. Minutes from the FOMC meeting in November indicated that policymakers are now seeing a 50/50 risk of recession within the next year, compared with a more aggressive forecast of65%on Wall Street and as much as100%by a Bloomberg Economics model.</p><p><b>What the Fed Says</b></p><p>Amidst the paradox between recent market optimism and a rapidly deteriorating macro backdrop, the Federal Reserve is sticking to its hawkish policy stance in hopes of preventing an unravelling of the work done to date to quell inflation. Recall Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#39;s stern remarks on managing market expectations during the post-meeting conference in November:</p><blockquote>CHRISTOPHER RUGABER. Great, and just a quick follow. It looks like stock and bond markets are reacting positively to your announcement so far. Is that something you wanted to see? Is that a problem or what-how that might affect your future policy to see this positive reaction?</blockquote><blockquote>CHAIR POWELL. We&#39;re not targeting any one or two particular things. Our message should be-what I&#39;m trying to do is make sure that our message is clear, which is that we think we have a ways to go, we have some ground to cover with interest rates before we get to, before we get to that level of interest rates that we think is sufficiently restrictive…If you look at the-I have a table of the last 12 months of 12-month readings, and there&#39;s really no pattern there. We&#39;re exactly where we were a year ago. So I would also say, it&#39;s premature to discuss pausing. And it&#39;s not something that we&#39;re thinking about. That&#39;s really not a conversation to be had now. We have a ways to go. And the last thing I&#39;ll say is that I would want people to understand our commitment to getting this done and to not making the mistake of not doing enough or the mistake of withdrawing our strong policy and doing that too soon. So those-I control those messages, and that&#39;s my job.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Transcript of Chair Powell&#39;s Press Conference, November 2, 2022</blockquote><p>And the same policy stance has been proclaimed unanimously across commentary from Fed officials as of late, with many sticking to the narrative that there is still &#34;a long way to go&#34; when it comes to quelling inflation. Despite acknowledging that the &#34;lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation&#34; are now materializing, which draws the need to start considering a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes, policymakers remain fixed on tightening policy into restrictive territory, nonetheless. The hawkish commentary maintained indicates that &#34;the Fed is likely to lean against easing financial conditions&#34; despite recent data supporting that the economy is slowing. Specifically, a slowing economy is what the Fed essentially wants to ensure inflation is reined in. The intention of continued hawkishness is to prevent markets from mistaking any potential near-term deceleration in the pace of rate increases with a reversal of the economy&#39;s current slowdown.:</p><blockquote>The big picture illustrates that the Fed intends to slow down in order to allow more time for lags to operate and cumulative tightening to date to show up in the data. The hawkish talk from Chair Powell and many Fed officials subsequently is likely intended to provide air cover for the slowing to take place without an excessive easing of financial conditions.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Bloomberg</blockquote><p><b>What the Past Says</b></p><p>While continued market volatility in the near-term is almost certain, when the market might bottom remains a big question mark. The Fed&#39;s monetary policy tightening campaign implemented this year is the most aggressive in 40-years, but the economy&#39;s relative resilience this time around when compared to the past suggests that some macroeconomic factors have inevitably changed.</p><p>For instance, technology plays a bigger role in today&#39;s economic development, while simpler factors like consumer behavior and the social construct&#39;s role in the global macro economy have also evolved significantly in the past decade alone. The recent COVID pandemic and the ensuing disruptions to businesses and global supply chains has also injected further complexity into today&#39;s macroeconomic conditions compared to past economic downturns, inflationary environments, and monetary policy tightening cycles. Yet, there are also many overlapping similarities between today&#39;s inflationary environment and monetary policy tightening cycles compared to ones in the past that could potentially shed some light on where the economy stands today and what potentially lies ahead.</p><p><b>The &#34;Global Recession&#34; in the 1970s to 1980s</b></p><p><b>Context</b>. Inflation reached double-digits in the U.S. and across major economies during the 1980s. Similar to today&#39;s situation, soaring food and energy prices were culprit to runaway inflation at the time. The back-to-back energy crisis stemming from the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s and the Iranian Revolution later the same decade, which resulted in a rapid decline in supplies, pushed oil prices up by as much as fourfold at the time.</p><p>Inflation topped 12% in 1974 with the Fed funds rate rising from 7% to 16% by early 1975, pushing the economy into recession. A stark Fed pivot followed with the Fed funds rate cut to 5.25% by April 1975, causing inflation to return while growth remained stagnate. By the time the second energy crisis came around, accommodative policies were deployed by the Fed in hopes of countering unemployment, but backfired by worsening the pace of price increases - inflation rose from below 5% in early 1976 prior to the second energy crisis resulting from the Iranian Revolution, to 7% by 1979. The Federal Funds Rate was pushed from 6.9% to 10% over the same period in hopes of stamping out inflationary pressure without &#34;stifling fragile economic growth&#34; at the time, but to no avail, which led to an extended period of stagflation instead and pushed the economy into recession again.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening</b>. The so-called &#34;stop-go policy&#34; during the 1970s came to an end when Paul Volcker took office as Fed Chair in 1979. Volcker made quelling inflation a priority, &#34;even if it came at the detriment of short-term employment&#34;. To some extent, this is similar to Fed Chair Powell&#39;s commitment to arresting decades-high inflation &#34;even if doing so risks an economic downturn&#34;.</p><p>Inflation had already entered double-digits at 11% when Volcker became Fed Chair, while America&#39;s jobless rate was inching close to 6% near the end of the 1970s. Fed rate hikes continued, pushing the economy into deep recession by 1982 with the unemployment rate reaching 11%. Over a three-year span, the Volker-led Fed pushed its benchmark rate as high as 20% and stayed in the double-digit range until inflation had fallen to 5% by late 1982. The Fed pivoted then with rates declining to single-digits, alleviating unemployment from the peak of 11% to 8% by 1983.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom</b>. The S&amp;P 500 traded at single-digit(7.4x to 9.0x) estimated earnings when Volcker led an aggressive quantitative tightening cycle, which was reflective of the lower value of future cash flows. The market subsequently recovered when it became structurally clear that double-digit inflation was put away for good in the latter half of the 1980s.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes</b>. The stop-go monetary policy implemented in the 1970s has been largely viewed as a policy mistake today:</p><blockquote>In the 1970s, the Fed pursued what economists would call &#34;stop-go&#34; monetary policy, which alternated between fighting high unemployment and high inflation. During the &#34;go&#34; periods, the Fed lowered interest rates to loosen the money supply and target lower unemployment. During the &#34;stop&#34; periods, when inflation mounted, the Fed would raise interest rates to reduce inflationary pressure.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Federal Reserve History</blockquote><p>The on-and-off tightening eventually let inflation and unemployment run loose through the decade. Today, Fed Chair Powell looks to be taking a page from the 1970s on managing risks of runaway inflation, cautioning against a premature loosening of monetary policies even if economic recession is becoming a certain possibility.</p><blockquote>We are not trying to provoke, and I don&#39;t think we will need to provoke, a recession,&#34; Powell said at a hearing before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, although he acknowledged that a recession was &#34;certainly a possibility&#34; and events in the last few months around the world had made it more difficult to reduce inflation without causing one</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Reuters</blockquote><p><b>Greenspan Tightening 1999 to 2000</b></p><p><b>Context.</b> The Federal Reserve had resorted to monetary easing in 1998 as a pre-emptive measure to shore up U.S. growth&#34;in the face of economic turmoil overseas&#34; at the time, even though unemployment was at a historical low rate of 4.5%. But by 1999, it was clear the U.S. economy was booming, exhibiting a combination of robust consumer demand and job market, while inflation remained in check. This led the Fed to reverse courseunder Alan Greenspan leadership, and aboard a rate hike cycle that consisted of a 175 bps increases in 1999 from 4.75% to 6.5% by mid-2000.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening.</b> The 1999 tightening cycle was largely viewed as the Fed&#39;s intention to &#34;protect consumers and financial markets from something it has yet to see - a substantial rise in inflationary pressures&#34;. Inflation was largely flat at the time, while GDP growth almos thalved from 4.3% in the first quarter to 2.3% in the second quarter at the time.</p><p>By mid-2000, the Fed funds rate had reached 6.5%. Coinciding with the dotcom bubble burst that led to severe market instability, fears that continued tightening would slow the U.S. economy into recession had escalated. A Fed pivot ensued with rates cutting back to the 3% range, followed by further reductions in 2001 after the 9-11 World Trade Center terrorist attack that took the Fed funds rate to the 1% range.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom.</b> Over the course of the Greenspan-led &#34;flip-flop on interest rates&#34; between 1999 and 2001, stocks actually sold off even when the Fed pivoted to monetary easing. The selloff continued into late 2002 to levels not seen since 1998.</p><p>Market instability was marked by a combination of lofty valuations in internet stocks that fell to shambles after a slew of fraudulent reporting (cue Enron) and bankruptcies surfaced, underscoring rapid erosion of investors&#39; confidence. The 9-11 terrorist attack also escalated uncertainties over the U.S. economic outlook at the time, adding pressure to the market downturn at the time. The S&amp;P 500 bottomed by late 2002, trading at double-digit (~30x) estimated earnings - a stark contrast to observations in the 1980s - which was consistent with record-low borrowing costs at the time.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes.</b> The low interest rates embraced by Greenspan to arrest market instability and declines was largely known as the &#34;Greenspan put&#34;, which is viewed today as a key factor that led the run-up to the 2008 housing market collapse. The Greenspan put instilled a mentality that the Fed would restore market stability in the event of declines - essentially, moral hazard - which caused &#34;excessive risk-taking in stock markets&#34;. This eventually led to high-flying valuations, particularly in internet stocks, that crashed in the 2000s. Similar happened again when financial markets collapsed in 2008.</p><p><b>The &#34;Great Recession&#34; of 2007 to 2009 and the 2008 Financial Crisis</b></p><p><b>Context.</b> Rate hikes resumed under Greenspan&#39;s leadership in 2004 when GDP growth was pushing 4% while inflation was at 2.7% and unemployment at 5.4%, showing signs of an overheating economy. Interest rates rose from 1.0% to 5.25% over the course of 17 incremental hikes between 2004 and 2006, when inflation surpassed 3%.</p><p>By 2007, GDP growth had fallen to 2%, and deteriorated rapidly to 0.1% the following year with unemployment surpassing 7% and inflation pushing 4%. The U.S. economy had effectively entered recession at the time, with unemployment reaching 10% by late 2009 fuelled by the housing bubble burst in 2008 (i.e. 2008 financial crisis). The S&amp;P 500 fell 57% over the same period, wiping out close to$15 trillion in American&#39;s net worth.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening.</b> The 2004 to 2006 tightening cycle peaked with the Fed funds rate at 5.25%, but was insufficient in stamping out inflation and keeping unemployment at bay. This effectively drove the U.S. economy into recession by 2007, with a combination of fiscal and monetary policy easing implemented under the leadership of then-president George W. Bush and then-Fed-Chair Ben Bernanke with aims of shoring up the economy. The 2008 financial crisis ensuing from the housing bubble burst that left &#34;trillions of dollars of worthless investments in subprime mortgages&#34; also compounded pains.</p><p>By the end of 2008, the Fed funds rate had already been cut to the0% to 0.25%range to stem the economy from unravelling further. The FOMC had intended to keep the Fed funds rate &#34;at exceptionally low levels for some time and then for an extended period&#34; at the time, and the near-zero range eventually held until 2015. Monetary policy under Bernanke&#39;s leadership was focused on the &#34;use [of the FOMC&#39;s] policy statement to provide forward guidance for the federal funds rate&#34;, which helped manage market&#39;s understanding of economic and financial conditions during the Great Recession.</p><p>The Fed also implemented &#34;large scale asset purchase&#34; (&#34;LSAP&#34;) programs at the time to ensure &#34;longer-term public and private borrowing rates&#34; were kept at low levels in alignment with the near-zero Fed funds rate. This included the Fed&#39;s buyback of mortgage-backed securities (&#34;MBS&#34;) and Treasuries at the time to &#34;reduce the cost and increase the availability of credit for home purchases&#34; - a detrimental corner of the market during the financial crisis. The LSAP program is also similar to the MBS and Treasury buybacks implemented by the Fed at the onset of the COVID pandemic in2020to &#34;help ensure chaotic markets function properly [and] ensure credit flows to corporations as well as state and local governments&#34;.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom.</b> The S&amp;P 500 fell 57% between October 2007 and March 2009, though the economy remained weak with unemployment still on the run towards 9.5% in June 2009 before peaking at 10% in October 2009. The index was trading at more than 70x estimated earnings at its trough in March 2009, which was consistent with the hit on corporate fundamental performance across the board, as well as record-low borrowing costs at the 0% to 0.25% range. The valuation multiple moderated to the 20x-range of forward earnings by 2010 as corporate fundamentals started to recover, while the Fed funds rate was held steady at the near-zero range.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes.</b> As discussed in the earlier section, the housing bubble burst that also contributed to the Global Recession from 2007 to 2009 was likely partially driven by market moral hazard instilled by the Greenspan put. Recall that Bernanke also sought to rapid rate cuts between 2007 and 2008 in response to deteriorating macro conditions and the sliding market, adopting a similar strategy as Greenspan that &#34;may have been a catalyst contributing to the conditions of the 2008 financial crisis&#34;.</p><p>However, Bernanke&#39;s subsequent adherence to low interest rates for an extended period, as well as bank bailouts that cost as much as$700 billion, and other monetary easing policies such as the LSAP program ($1.75 trillion) was key to the long, yet stable market recovery in the years that followed.</p><p><b>The COVID Pandemic</b></p><p><b>Context.</b> Fed rate hikes resumed in 2015 under Fed Chair Janet Yellen after economic growth showed an extended period of stabilization in the 2% range, while inflation was flat with unemployment at 5%. The hikes continued even after Jerome Powell took over as Fed Chair in 2018 until the Fed funds rate reached 2.5% by the end of the same year.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening.</b> The Federal Reserve resumed monetary policy tightening in 2015 upon evidence of &#34;improvement in the labor market [and reasonable confidence] that inflation would move back to its 2% objective over the medium term&#34;. As mentioned in the earlier section, unemployment had fallen to 5% in 2015 from the peak of 10% during late 2009. The intention was to pursue rate hikes while also maintaining an accommodative policy stance to &#34;support further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2% inflation&#34;.</p><p>The Fed pivoted to rate cuts by the summer of 2019 after the global equity market lost close to $7 trillion of its value by the end of 2018. However, GDP maintained at the 2%-range at the time, while unemployment was at 3.5% and inflation inched up to 1.9%, which stoked concerns of an eventual economic downturn. Rates were cut from the peak of 2.5% in late 2018 to 1.75% by late 2019. Rapid easing took place with rates sliding to the 0% to 0.25% range at the onset of the COVID pandemic in March 2020.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom.</b> More than $7 trillion in global market value was lost in 2018, with the S&amp;P 500 giving up close to 10% of its value (or almost 18% from the 2018 peak in September) before finding bottom near year-end. The index was trading at about 20x forward earnings at the time, which was consistent with rising, yet still low, interest rates at the time, relative to past financial crises.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes</b>. Market critics have viewed the 2015 rate hike cycle as &#34;premature&#34;, given inflation was still struggling to climb back towards the 2% Fed target at the time. It was not until 2018 when inflation topped 2%, which also coincided with market&#39;s negative reaction to rising borrowing costs following the preceding years of a near-zero Fed funds rate.</p><p><b>What Exactly is Valuation Composed of?</b></p><p>Before drawing on past economic cycles to gauge forward expectations, we turn to basic valuation theory to understand the interaction between key driving factors, including interest rates, inflation, unemployment and GDP. Most of the time, when we think of valuation, we think of the fundamental leg (e.g. growth, earnings, cash flows, etc.) and the valuation multiple (which is influenced by cost of capital / discount rate). But in economic theory, valuation can also be split into the following two components: steady-state firm value + future value creation.</p><p><b>Steady-State Firm Value</b></p><p>The steady-state value is defined as the value of the firm when &#34;NOPAT (net operating profit after tax) is sustainable indefinitely and incremental investments will neither add, nor subtract, value&#34;. This does not necessarily mean the point at which a company grows at 0% forever, but rather the point of growth that stays constant regardless of whether incremental investments are made (i.e. it could be a steady-state perpetual growth or declining rate).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/578dbfd401111f95b82426bc244ff6c8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"67\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steady-State Value Formula (Valuation Theory)</p><p>One way to depict steady-state value is via the steady-state firm value P/E ratio, which is defined as 1 divided by cost of capital:</p><blockquote>A company can continue to grow earnings as it invests at the cost of capital. It will just fail to create value, and hence should trade at its steady-state worth. We can readily translate from the steady-state value to a steady-state price-earnings multiple, which is the reciprocal of the cost of [capital].</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Credit Suisse</blockquote><p>The intuition is to find the valuation multiple (i.e. P/E ratio, in this case) reflective of the point at which continued investments at the cost of capital will continue to drive earnings growth, but not necessarily yield any incremental value creation, and hence stay at a steady-state of &#34;1&#34;.</p><p>To gauge where the market&#39;s steady-state value might be headed, we turn to key driving factor, cost of capital. Cost of capital is essentially the borrowing cost, which can be benchmarked against the Fed funds rate. Based on an understanding of past economic cycles, the Federal Reserve today is likely leaning towards the Volcker era, with a sprinkle of Bernanke.</p><p>What this means is that the Fed&#39;s commitment to taming inflation - even if it comes at the cost of some near-term economic pain - will eventually lead to more rate hikes in coming months, especially as inflation today remains far from the 2% target. This is consistent with the growing drumbeat of calls by Fed officials to raise rates into &#34;restrictive territory&#34; and holding it there until there is structural evidence inflation is back on track towards the committee&#39;s target range. To prevent further policy mistakes (we say &#34;further&#34; since the whole &#34;transitory inflation&#34; narrative last year obviously did not work out), responding to recent signs of slowing demand with a Fed pivot is essentially off the table, as implementing such as policy would likely be begging for a repeat of the &#34;stop-go&#34; disaster in the 1970s before Volcker. At best, the Fed will likely stick to what it has been doing at recent meetings - setting clean and clear forward expectations for markets like Bernanke had. In today&#39;s case, this means there will be more tightening in financial conditions that could potentially push the terminal rate higher, while keeping in mind of the &#34;effects of lags in monetary policy&#34; and start considering a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.</p><p>Traders are largely expecting a moderation in the pace of rate hikes from the jumbo 75 bps seen over the summer and fall, to a half-point increase at the coming December meeting, which would bring the Fed funds rate range from the current 3.75% to 4%, to 4.25% to 4.5%. The terminal rate is expected to reach 5% to 5.25%based on current prices on 1H23 Fed swaps. Substituting the estimated terminal rate of about 5% plus an additional percentage point to account for forward market risk premium (reflective of difference between 1-year Treasury yield of about 4.75% today and the current Fed funds rate range of 3.75% and 4%) as proxy for market cost of capital in gauging the steady-state firm value P/E ratio would yield about 17x. The S&amp;P 500, which can be viewed as a proxy for the weighted average of its constituents&#39; respective valuations, currently trades at about 20x estimated earnings. If market steady-state firm value is to be adjusted as a result of continued Fed policy tightening, the S&amp;P 500 could potentially move another leg lower by as much as 15% between now and when the Fed funds rate peaks in the current tightening cycle, which is estimated to occur by mid-2023.</p><p>But there are a myriad of other factors that could impact where the so-called steady-state firm value is headed as Fed tightening continues over coming months, including economic growth and investor sentiment on a broader basis. This is consistent with the observation discussed in earlier sections that market bottomed in March 2009 even though the economy continued to deteriorate with unemployment hitting trough at 10% seven months later in October 2009. This could both be reflective of the fact that market is forward looking (or priced at estimated earnings and forward macro expectations) and/or the lag effect in which monetary policy works, among other factors. What this essentially means is that while rate hikes are expected to peak by mid-2023, it does not necessarily mean that is also when the market will bottom. But nonetheless, even if it is almost impossible to gauge the exact timing, it is more likely that not that the market is skewed towards further downside risks through the first quarter of 2023 at the minimum.</p><p>In addition to the steady-state P/E ratio method, the Gordon growth model is another way to gauge steady-state firm value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97b0f365e67a424db79cb49516d8b5f7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"74\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Gordon Growth Model (Valuation Theory)</p><p>The key assumption here other than cost of capital is GDP growth. GDP growth is typically used as a key benchmark to gauge the implied perpetual growth of a company, with addition consideration of the maturity of its industry as well as other company-specific factors such as market leadership, competitive advantages, and/or market share:</p><blockquote>Companies operating in industries that are higher growth in nature are typically valued at a perpetual growth rate closer to or more than GDP, given their greater contributions to economic growth. Alternatively, companies operating in lower growth and/or mature industries are typically allocated a lower perpetual growth rate.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: &#34;Shorting Tesla: Bridging Lofty Valuations to Economics&#34;</blockquote><p>As discussed in the earlier section, demand is likely to show a marked slowdown in coming months as consumer purchasing power wanes, especially if unemployment worsens, which will lead to further deteriorating in economic growth. Even though the labor market has remained largely resilient despite the recent slew of high-paid tech layoffs (accounts foronly ~2%of total U.S. employment), consumer weakness is expected to tame demand further and eventually hit corporate earnings, potentially resulting in more cost-driven job cuts. This is further corroborated by the gradual uptick in recent jobless claimsas well as jobless rate to &#34;3.7%from a more than five-decade low&#34;. This means GDP is likely to slow as interest rates increase, widening the spread between cost of capital and growth in the denominator of the Gordon growth model, and inadvertently, diminishing the steady-state firm value.</p><p><b>Future Value Creation Premium</b></p><p>The future value creation premium accounts for the incremental value that additional investments at the cost of capital would earn (i.e. return on capital), and also takes into consideration the time period in which this value-creating opportunity would last.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08bfdfec8d89633ac41365f0fcd39554\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"48\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Future Value Creation Formula (Valuation Theory)</p><p>This is essentially a premium to the steady-state firm value, and explains the lofty valuations relative to broader markets observed in certain stocks, such as Apple(AAPL), Tesla(TSLA) and Snowflake(SNOW), today. Admittedly, these companies have either or all of outperforming balance sheets, profit margins, and/or growth prospects relative to peers, but not all are valued in proportion to the mean growth-valuation ratio observed among their respective peer groups.</p><p>In addition to the &#34;competitive advantage period&#34;, which measures the anticipated time period in which the added value-creating opportunity would last, key assumptions in deriving future value creation premium is return on capital and cost of capital. And return on capital can be substituted by anticipated economic expansion, or GDP growth - when the economy is good, growth and profit margins will likely perform better, and vice versa. But as discussed in the earlier section, GDP growth is likely skewed to the downside within the foreseeable future as demand continues to slow and profit margins get squeezed as a result of high input costs, and near-term requirements for more-than-usual promotional offers to offload excess product inventories.</p><p>Paired with the anticipation for greater increases to the cost of capital as a result of Fed hawkishness that will more likely than not continue for a while longer, the cost-return spread in the numerator of the future value creation component of valuation is poised to narrow. And as cost of capital continues to increase, the denominator will also expand, hence diminishing the future value creation component of broader market valuations, which corroborates the expectation for more downside potential within the near-term.</p><p><b>Implications for the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 - Is the Bottom Near?</b></p><p>Based on valuation theory, and the anticipation for sustained hawkish Fed sentiment drawn from historical observations, the broader market is likely to see further volatility ahead as valuations adjust to rising rates and declining demand. While the timing at which markets will bottom remains uncertain, we are of the view that company fundamentals are only just starting to feel the impact of consumer weakness, which points to further value erosion through 1H23.</p><p>Specifically, consumer spending has remained resilient through the first half of 2022 despite deteriorating sentiment due to surging inflation and rising borrowing costs. But headed into the first half of the fourth quarter, declining business activity and warnings of a marked slowdown among consumer-centric industries such as retail underscore that waning consumer sentiment is now really materializing into real weakness. This is further supported by the consistent drop in American household savings and rise in credit card debt, among other observations, discussed earlier on in this analysis.</p><p>And a specific note to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ: QQQ/NDX), constituents&#39; valuations are likely to be hit harder compared to those in the S&amp;P 500 given their cash flows are further out (with some still in pre-revenue phase and/or unprofitable) from realization and subject to a heavier discount as costs of capital increase. The index also consists of constituents with some of the biggest valuation premiums given lofty forward growth expectations previously priced in that may not materialize as expected within the foreseeable future, thus pointing to greater vulnerability to downside risks ahead.</p><p>And given risks of further macro deterioration are now skewed higher with recent economic data pointing to a moderation in the labor market, while monetary policy tightening continues to flow through different corners of the economy, the ensuing rise in the likelihood of a recession will likely take the market a leg lower through the first half of 2023, even if we start to see structural easing in price pressures.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-27 12:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560523-heres-why-we-think-spy-and-qqq-risks-are-skewed-to-the-downside><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryEquities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY up 13% and QQQ up 8% QTD.There has also been some cautious optimism among investors on signs of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560523-heres-why-we-think-spy-and-qqq-risks-are-skewed-to-the-downside\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560523-heres-why-we-think-spy-and-qqq-risks-are-skewed-to-the-downside","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110767793","content_text":"SummaryEquities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY up 13% and QQQ up 8% QTD.There has also been some cautious optimism among investors on signs of easing inflation and the Fed's consideration for a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.However, company fundamentals that were previously resilient are now just starting to show the first signs of cracks, while continued borrowing cost increases will only weigh on valuations further.The following deep dive analysis will walk through past economic cycles, valuation theory, and recent economic data to gauge where Fed policy might be headed and the related implications on SPY and QQQ valuations as we head into the new year.The S&P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY/SP500) has gradually climbed more than 12% since the fourth quarter began, and closed at a two-month high during Wednesday's (November 23) session after a flurry of economic data released in recent weeks pointed to easing price pressures and market slowdown that could harbinger a dovish Fed policy stance over coming months. October CPI and PPI showed a stronger reduction in prices than expected, while recent data on jobless claims, retail sales, and business activity also pointed to a slowdown in demand, especially for discretionary goods.Despite hawkish commentary from Fed officials still, investors are responding positively to remarks that the pace of rate hikes might be moderating from the recent slew of jumbo 75 bps increases. This has compounded market optimism on a potential shift on the Fed's policy tightening trajectory to a more dovish stance, with investors' now focusing more on a potential slowdown in the pace of coming rate hikes than where the terminal rate might land (i.e. when the Fed might actually pivot).But from a valuation and fundamental perspective, continued rate hikes are poised to squeeze multiples further into contraction, while ensuing deteriorating of financial conditions put corporate earnings at risk. With slowing demand, and mounting macroeconomic uncertainties over the Fed's tightening trajectory, when inflation would peak, and whether a recession is imminently still at large, volatility will likely continue to overpower markets. While it is difficult to gauge when exactly markets might bottom as macro deterioration gains momentum, the following analysis will turn to past tightening cycles and inflation environments, as well as basic valuation theory to explore where the market climate stands today and what to potentially expect over coming months.Recent Economic OverviewThe drumbeat for moderating inflation grew after CPI and PPI figures came in lower than expected. October CPI rose7.7% y/yand 0.4% m/m (core +6.3% y/y, +0.3% m/m), marking the \"smallest annual advance since the start of the year\" and coming in under economist estimates of 7.9% y/y and 0.6% m/m. U.S. PPI also eased in October, advancing 8% y/y(core +6.7% y/) and 0.2% m/m (core 0% m/m) compared with economist estimates of 8.3% y/y and 0.4% m/m. The back-to-back indication of easing price pressures pushed the S&P 500 higher in early November, as markets saw it as an encouraging sign that the Fed might resort to less aggressive tightening in the months ahead and potentially achieve a soft-landing that could be beneficial to the valuation of risky assets that have been roiled across the board this year.But investors were quickly sent back to the sidelines after stronger-than-expectedU.S. retail sales data for October indicated that the economy was still running hot, while Fed officials rushed to warn markets that \"inflation remains much too high for comfort\" and there is \"still a long way to go\" on keeping decades-high price increases under control. But a deeper look into the drivers of retail sales increases would suggest that consumer purchasing power is starting to feel the pinch of both rising inflation and interest rates, and the volume of sales is likely deteriorating too since the October figure of 1.3% is not adjusted for inflation.As discussed in one of our recent coverages, the biggest driver of October's retail sales growth was on basic necessities like food and energy. Meanwhile, spending on discretionary goods like consumer electronics and apparel saw a marked decline, indicating that consumer purchasing power is waning on the back of surging inflation and tightening financial conditions:Meanwhile, retailers of discretionary goods such as apparel, consumer electronics, and sporting goods saw a sales decline of more than 2% over the same period. The results imply continued weakening in consumer purchasing power as inflationary pressures persist, while retailers of discretionary goods are looking to lure buyers ahead of the holiday shopping season with price cuts and steep discounts in an attempt to clear inventories.Source: \"2 Retail Stocks to Watch After Retail Sales Rose in October - We are Watching Amazon and Apple\"The shift in consumer behavior in response to mounting macroeconomic uncertainties ahead is also telling of the impending demand slowdown over the coming months. Consumer credit card debt is fast approaching the pre-pandemic peak of $916 billion as of the end of September, and the continuation of this trend is further corroborated by recent observations by retailer Macy's (M), which saw its customers \"building larger balances on credit cards\". The latest data shows that Americans' credit card debt has increased by 15% y/y, the fastest pace in two decades while card borrowing costs topped 19%, a level not seen in 40 years.The impending slowdown in demand and spending is further supported by the recent rise in jobless claims and contraction in business activity. U.S. jobless claims topped 240,000 during the week ended November 19th, topping consensus estimates of 225,000 and up from 17,000 in the prior week. The jump was the highest in months, a potential sign that the labor market might be cooling as a result of recent mass layoffs across big tech, though economists are also cautioning effects of seasonal attrition, which introduces a \"great deal of volatility into this data\". The U.S. job market has remained stubbornly resilient despite the Fed's implementation of aggressive tools to slow the economy this year, with the jobless rate still at a 50-year low of3.7%:Tech companies represent about 2% of all employment in the country, said Richardson. That compares with 11% for the leisure and hospitality industry, which is still struggling to hire workers, she added.Source:BloombergThe broad takeaway is a job market that's cooling albeit not very quickly. That lines up with Jerome Powell's characterization earlier this week, when the Fed chair acknowledged conditions haven't softened yet in an \"obvious\" way and said the central bank is eyeing a higher peak interest rate than it was two months ago.Source:BloombergBut added softness in business activity indicates that even \"some of the more resilient parts of the economy\" are undoubtedly showing cracks as a result of the Fed's aggressive policy stance deployed this year. The S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI, which measures activity across the American private sector, saw a \"solid contraction\" this month. The index reached the \"second lowest level\" since the onset of the pandemic and imitates the dire business environment in 2009. Managers reported slowing demand and new orders due to the effects of \"rising interest rates, economic uncertainty and the lingering effects of still elevated inflation\". Consistent with commentary gathered in the latest third quarter earnings season, promotional offers are gaining momentum across suppliers, factories and service providers to \"help boost flagging sales\", which is poised to weigh on private sector earnings over coming months.Although easing inflationary pressures is a welcomed sight, recent data points to rapid unravelling of an economy that is likely headed towards recession. Minutes from the FOMC meeting in November indicated that policymakers are now seeing a 50/50 risk of recession within the next year, compared with a more aggressive forecast of65%on Wall Street and as much as100%by a Bloomberg Economics model.What the Fed SaysAmidst the paradox between recent market optimism and a rapidly deteriorating macro backdrop, the Federal Reserve is sticking to its hawkish policy stance in hopes of preventing an unravelling of the work done to date to quell inflation. Recall Fed Chair Jerome Powell's stern remarks on managing market expectations during the post-meeting conference in November:CHRISTOPHER RUGABER. Great, and just a quick follow. It looks like stock and bond markets are reacting positively to your announcement so far. Is that something you wanted to see? Is that a problem or what-how that might affect your future policy to see this positive reaction?CHAIR POWELL. We're not targeting any one or two particular things. Our message should be-what I'm trying to do is make sure that our message is clear, which is that we think we have a ways to go, we have some ground to cover with interest rates before we get to, before we get to that level of interest rates that we think is sufficiently restrictive…If you look at the-I have a table of the last 12 months of 12-month readings, and there's really no pattern there. We're exactly where we were a year ago. So I would also say, it's premature to discuss pausing. And it's not something that we're thinking about. That's really not a conversation to be had now. We have a ways to go. And the last thing I'll say is that I would want people to understand our commitment to getting this done and to not making the mistake of not doing enough or the mistake of withdrawing our strong policy and doing that too soon. So those-I control those messages, and that's my job.Source:Transcript of Chair Powell's Press Conference, November 2, 2022And the same policy stance has been proclaimed unanimously across commentary from Fed officials as of late, with many sticking to the narrative that there is still \"a long way to go\" when it comes to quelling inflation. Despite acknowledging that the \"lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation\" are now materializing, which draws the need to start considering a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes, policymakers remain fixed on tightening policy into restrictive territory, nonetheless. The hawkish commentary maintained indicates that \"the Fed is likely to lean against easing financial conditions\" despite recent data supporting that the economy is slowing. Specifically, a slowing economy is what the Fed essentially wants to ensure inflation is reined in. The intention of continued hawkishness is to prevent markets from mistaking any potential near-term deceleration in the pace of rate increases with a reversal of the economy's current slowdown.:The big picture illustrates that the Fed intends to slow down in order to allow more time for lags to operate and cumulative tightening to date to show up in the data. The hawkish talk from Chair Powell and many Fed officials subsequently is likely intended to provide air cover for the slowing to take place without an excessive easing of financial conditions.Source:BloombergWhat the Past SaysWhile continued market volatility in the near-term is almost certain, when the market might bottom remains a big question mark. The Fed's monetary policy tightening campaign implemented this year is the most aggressive in 40-years, but the economy's relative resilience this time around when compared to the past suggests that some macroeconomic factors have inevitably changed.For instance, technology plays a bigger role in today's economic development, while simpler factors like consumer behavior and the social construct's role in the global macro economy have also evolved significantly in the past decade alone. The recent COVID pandemic and the ensuing disruptions to businesses and global supply chains has also injected further complexity into today's macroeconomic conditions compared to past economic downturns, inflationary environments, and monetary policy tightening cycles. Yet, there are also many overlapping similarities between today's inflationary environment and monetary policy tightening cycles compared to ones in the past that could potentially shed some light on where the economy stands today and what potentially lies ahead.The \"Global Recession\" in the 1970s to 1980sContext. Inflation reached double-digits in the U.S. and across major economies during the 1980s. Similar to today's situation, soaring food and energy prices were culprit to runaway inflation at the time. The back-to-back energy crisis stemming from the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s and the Iranian Revolution later the same decade, which resulted in a rapid decline in supplies, pushed oil prices up by as much as fourfold at the time.Inflation topped 12% in 1974 with the Fed funds rate rising from 7% to 16% by early 1975, pushing the economy into recession. A stark Fed pivot followed with the Fed funds rate cut to 5.25% by April 1975, causing inflation to return while growth remained stagnate. By the time the second energy crisis came around, accommodative policies were deployed by the Fed in hopes of countering unemployment, but backfired by worsening the pace of price increases - inflation rose from below 5% in early 1976 prior to the second energy crisis resulting from the Iranian Revolution, to 7% by 1979. The Federal Funds Rate was pushed from 6.9% to 10% over the same period in hopes of stamping out inflationary pressure without \"stifling fragile economic growth\" at the time, but to no avail, which led to an extended period of stagflation instead and pushed the economy into recession again.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The so-called \"stop-go policy\" during the 1970s came to an end when Paul Volcker took office as Fed Chair in 1979. Volcker made quelling inflation a priority, \"even if it came at the detriment of short-term employment\". To some extent, this is similar to Fed Chair Powell's commitment to arresting decades-high inflation \"even if doing so risks an economic downturn\".Inflation had already entered double-digits at 11% when Volcker became Fed Chair, while America's jobless rate was inching close to 6% near the end of the 1970s. Fed rate hikes continued, pushing the economy into deep recession by 1982 with the unemployment rate reaching 11%. Over a three-year span, the Volker-led Fed pushed its benchmark rate as high as 20% and stayed in the double-digit range until inflation had fallen to 5% by late 1982. The Fed pivoted then with rates declining to single-digits, alleviating unemployment from the peak of 11% to 8% by 1983.S&P 500 Bottom. The S&P 500 traded at single-digit(7.4x to 9.0x) estimated earnings when Volcker led an aggressive quantitative tightening cycle, which was reflective of the lower value of future cash flows. The market subsequently recovered when it became structurally clear that double-digit inflation was put away for good in the latter half of the 1980s.Policy mistakes. The stop-go monetary policy implemented in the 1970s has been largely viewed as a policy mistake today:In the 1970s, the Fed pursued what economists would call \"stop-go\" monetary policy, which alternated between fighting high unemployment and high inflation. During the \"go\" periods, the Fed lowered interest rates to loosen the money supply and target lower unemployment. During the \"stop\" periods, when inflation mounted, the Fed would raise interest rates to reduce inflationary pressure.Source:Federal Reserve HistoryThe on-and-off tightening eventually let inflation and unemployment run loose through the decade. Today, Fed Chair Powell looks to be taking a page from the 1970s on managing risks of runaway inflation, cautioning against a premature loosening of monetary policies even if economic recession is becoming a certain possibility.We are not trying to provoke, and I don't think we will need to provoke, a recession,\" Powell said at a hearing before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, although he acknowledged that a recession was \"certainly a possibility\" and events in the last few months around the world had made it more difficult to reduce inflation without causing oneSource:ReutersGreenspan Tightening 1999 to 2000Context. The Federal Reserve had resorted to monetary easing in 1998 as a pre-emptive measure to shore up U.S. growth\"in the face of economic turmoil overseas\" at the time, even though unemployment was at a historical low rate of 4.5%. But by 1999, it was clear the U.S. economy was booming, exhibiting a combination of robust consumer demand and job market, while inflation remained in check. This led the Fed to reverse courseunder Alan Greenspan leadership, and aboard a rate hike cycle that consisted of a 175 bps increases in 1999 from 4.75% to 6.5% by mid-2000.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The 1999 tightening cycle was largely viewed as the Fed's intention to \"protect consumers and financial markets from something it has yet to see - a substantial rise in inflationary pressures\". Inflation was largely flat at the time, while GDP growth almos thalved from 4.3% in the first quarter to 2.3% in the second quarter at the time.By mid-2000, the Fed funds rate had reached 6.5%. Coinciding with the dotcom bubble burst that led to severe market instability, fears that continued tightening would slow the U.S. economy into recession had escalated. A Fed pivot ensued with rates cutting back to the 3% range, followed by further reductions in 2001 after the 9-11 World Trade Center terrorist attack that took the Fed funds rate to the 1% range.S&P 500 Bottom. Over the course of the Greenspan-led \"flip-flop on interest rates\" between 1999 and 2001, stocks actually sold off even when the Fed pivoted to monetary easing. The selloff continued into late 2002 to levels not seen since 1998.Market instability was marked by a combination of lofty valuations in internet stocks that fell to shambles after a slew of fraudulent reporting (cue Enron) and bankruptcies surfaced, underscoring rapid erosion of investors' confidence. The 9-11 terrorist attack also escalated uncertainties over the U.S. economic outlook at the time, adding pressure to the market downturn at the time. The S&P 500 bottomed by late 2002, trading at double-digit (~30x) estimated earnings - a stark contrast to observations in the 1980s - which was consistent with record-low borrowing costs at the time.Policy mistakes. The low interest rates embraced by Greenspan to arrest market instability and declines was largely known as the \"Greenspan put\", which is viewed today as a key factor that led the run-up to the 2008 housing market collapse. The Greenspan put instilled a mentality that the Fed would restore market stability in the event of declines - essentially, moral hazard - which caused \"excessive risk-taking in stock markets\". This eventually led to high-flying valuations, particularly in internet stocks, that crashed in the 2000s. Similar happened again when financial markets collapsed in 2008.The \"Great Recession\" of 2007 to 2009 and the 2008 Financial CrisisContext. Rate hikes resumed under Greenspan's leadership in 2004 when GDP growth was pushing 4% while inflation was at 2.7% and unemployment at 5.4%, showing signs of an overheating economy. Interest rates rose from 1.0% to 5.25% over the course of 17 incremental hikes between 2004 and 2006, when inflation surpassed 3%.By 2007, GDP growth had fallen to 2%, and deteriorated rapidly to 0.1% the following year with unemployment surpassing 7% and inflation pushing 4%. The U.S. economy had effectively entered recession at the time, with unemployment reaching 10% by late 2009 fuelled by the housing bubble burst in 2008 (i.e. 2008 financial crisis). The S&P 500 fell 57% over the same period, wiping out close to$15 trillion in American's net worth.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The 2004 to 2006 tightening cycle peaked with the Fed funds rate at 5.25%, but was insufficient in stamping out inflation and keeping unemployment at bay. This effectively drove the U.S. economy into recession by 2007, with a combination of fiscal and monetary policy easing implemented under the leadership of then-president George W. Bush and then-Fed-Chair Ben Bernanke with aims of shoring up the economy. The 2008 financial crisis ensuing from the housing bubble burst that left \"trillions of dollars of worthless investments in subprime mortgages\" also compounded pains.By the end of 2008, the Fed funds rate had already been cut to the0% to 0.25%range to stem the economy from unravelling further. The FOMC had intended to keep the Fed funds rate \"at exceptionally low levels for some time and then for an extended period\" at the time, and the near-zero range eventually held until 2015. Monetary policy under Bernanke's leadership was focused on the \"use [of the FOMC's] policy statement to provide forward guidance for the federal funds rate\", which helped manage market's understanding of economic and financial conditions during the Great Recession.The Fed also implemented \"large scale asset purchase\" (\"LSAP\") programs at the time to ensure \"longer-term public and private borrowing rates\" were kept at low levels in alignment with the near-zero Fed funds rate. This included the Fed's buyback of mortgage-backed securities (\"MBS\") and Treasuries at the time to \"reduce the cost and increase the availability of credit for home purchases\" - a detrimental corner of the market during the financial crisis. The LSAP program is also similar to the MBS and Treasury buybacks implemented by the Fed at the onset of the COVID pandemic in2020to \"help ensure chaotic markets function properly [and] ensure credit flows to corporations as well as state and local governments\".S&P 500 Bottom. The S&P 500 fell 57% between October 2007 and March 2009, though the economy remained weak with unemployment still on the run towards 9.5% in June 2009 before peaking at 10% in October 2009. The index was trading at more than 70x estimated earnings at its trough in March 2009, which was consistent with the hit on corporate fundamental performance across the board, as well as record-low borrowing costs at the 0% to 0.25% range. The valuation multiple moderated to the 20x-range of forward earnings by 2010 as corporate fundamentals started to recover, while the Fed funds rate was held steady at the near-zero range.Policy mistakes. As discussed in the earlier section, the housing bubble burst that also contributed to the Global Recession from 2007 to 2009 was likely partially driven by market moral hazard instilled by the Greenspan put. Recall that Bernanke also sought to rapid rate cuts between 2007 and 2008 in response to deteriorating macro conditions and the sliding market, adopting a similar strategy as Greenspan that \"may have been a catalyst contributing to the conditions of the 2008 financial crisis\".However, Bernanke's subsequent adherence to low interest rates for an extended period, as well as bank bailouts that cost as much as$700 billion, and other monetary easing policies such as the LSAP program ($1.75 trillion) was key to the long, yet stable market recovery in the years that followed.The COVID PandemicContext. Fed rate hikes resumed in 2015 under Fed Chair Janet Yellen after economic growth showed an extended period of stabilization in the 2% range, while inflation was flat with unemployment at 5%. The hikes continued even after Jerome Powell took over as Fed Chair in 2018 until the Fed funds rate reached 2.5% by the end of the same year.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The Federal Reserve resumed monetary policy tightening in 2015 upon evidence of \"improvement in the labor market [and reasonable confidence] that inflation would move back to its 2% objective over the medium term\". As mentioned in the earlier section, unemployment had fallen to 5% in 2015 from the peak of 10% during late 2009. The intention was to pursue rate hikes while also maintaining an accommodative policy stance to \"support further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2% inflation\".The Fed pivoted to rate cuts by the summer of 2019 after the global equity market lost close to $7 trillion of its value by the end of 2018. However, GDP maintained at the 2%-range at the time, while unemployment was at 3.5% and inflation inched up to 1.9%, which stoked concerns of an eventual economic downturn. Rates were cut from the peak of 2.5% in late 2018 to 1.75% by late 2019. Rapid easing took place with rates sliding to the 0% to 0.25% range at the onset of the COVID pandemic in March 2020.S&P 500 Bottom. More than $7 trillion in global market value was lost in 2018, with the S&P 500 giving up close to 10% of its value (or almost 18% from the 2018 peak in September) before finding bottom near year-end. The index was trading at about 20x forward earnings at the time, which was consistent with rising, yet still low, interest rates at the time, relative to past financial crises.Policy mistakes. Market critics have viewed the 2015 rate hike cycle as \"premature\", given inflation was still struggling to climb back towards the 2% Fed target at the time. It was not until 2018 when inflation topped 2%, which also coincided with market's negative reaction to rising borrowing costs following the preceding years of a near-zero Fed funds rate.What Exactly is Valuation Composed of?Before drawing on past economic cycles to gauge forward expectations, we turn to basic valuation theory to understand the interaction between key driving factors, including interest rates, inflation, unemployment and GDP. Most of the time, when we think of valuation, we think of the fundamental leg (e.g. growth, earnings, cash flows, etc.) and the valuation multiple (which is influenced by cost of capital / discount rate). But in economic theory, valuation can also be split into the following two components: steady-state firm value + future value creation.Steady-State Firm ValueThe steady-state value is defined as the value of the firm when \"NOPAT (net operating profit after tax) is sustainable indefinitely and incremental investments will neither add, nor subtract, value\". This does not necessarily mean the point at which a company grows at 0% forever, but rather the point of growth that stays constant regardless of whether incremental investments are made (i.e. it could be a steady-state perpetual growth or declining rate).Steady-State Value Formula (Valuation Theory)One way to depict steady-state value is via the steady-state firm value P/E ratio, which is defined as 1 divided by cost of capital:A company can continue to grow earnings as it invests at the cost of capital. It will just fail to create value, and hence should trade at its steady-state worth. We can readily translate from the steady-state value to a steady-state price-earnings multiple, which is the reciprocal of the cost of [capital].Source:Credit SuisseThe intuition is to find the valuation multiple (i.e. P/E ratio, in this case) reflective of the point at which continued investments at the cost of capital will continue to drive earnings growth, but not necessarily yield any incremental value creation, and hence stay at a steady-state of \"1\".To gauge where the market's steady-state value might be headed, we turn to key driving factor, cost of capital. Cost of capital is essentially the borrowing cost, which can be benchmarked against the Fed funds rate. Based on an understanding of past economic cycles, the Federal Reserve today is likely leaning towards the Volcker era, with a sprinkle of Bernanke.What this means is that the Fed's commitment to taming inflation - even if it comes at the cost of some near-term economic pain - will eventually lead to more rate hikes in coming months, especially as inflation today remains far from the 2% target. This is consistent with the growing drumbeat of calls by Fed officials to raise rates into \"restrictive territory\" and holding it there until there is structural evidence inflation is back on track towards the committee's target range. To prevent further policy mistakes (we say \"further\" since the whole \"transitory inflation\" narrative last year obviously did not work out), responding to recent signs of slowing demand with a Fed pivot is essentially off the table, as implementing such as policy would likely be begging for a repeat of the \"stop-go\" disaster in the 1970s before Volcker. At best, the Fed will likely stick to what it has been doing at recent meetings - setting clean and clear forward expectations for markets like Bernanke had. In today's case, this means there will be more tightening in financial conditions that could potentially push the terminal rate higher, while keeping in mind of the \"effects of lags in monetary policy\" and start considering a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.Traders are largely expecting a moderation in the pace of rate hikes from the jumbo 75 bps seen over the summer and fall, to a half-point increase at the coming December meeting, which would bring the Fed funds rate range from the current 3.75% to 4%, to 4.25% to 4.5%. The terminal rate is expected to reach 5% to 5.25%based on current prices on 1H23 Fed swaps. Substituting the estimated terminal rate of about 5% plus an additional percentage point to account for forward market risk premium (reflective of difference between 1-year Treasury yield of about 4.75% today and the current Fed funds rate range of 3.75% and 4%) as proxy for market cost of capital in gauging the steady-state firm value P/E ratio would yield about 17x. The S&P 500, which can be viewed as a proxy for the weighted average of its constituents' respective valuations, currently trades at about 20x estimated earnings. If market steady-state firm value is to be adjusted as a result of continued Fed policy tightening, the S&P 500 could potentially move another leg lower by as much as 15% between now and when the Fed funds rate peaks in the current tightening cycle, which is estimated to occur by mid-2023.But there are a myriad of other factors that could impact where the so-called steady-state firm value is headed as Fed tightening continues over coming months, including economic growth and investor sentiment on a broader basis. This is consistent with the observation discussed in earlier sections that market bottomed in March 2009 even though the economy continued to deteriorate with unemployment hitting trough at 10% seven months later in October 2009. This could both be reflective of the fact that market is forward looking (or priced at estimated earnings and forward macro expectations) and/or the lag effect in which monetary policy works, among other factors. What this essentially means is that while rate hikes are expected to peak by mid-2023, it does not necessarily mean that is also when the market will bottom. But nonetheless, even if it is almost impossible to gauge the exact timing, it is more likely that not that the market is skewed towards further downside risks through the first quarter of 2023 at the minimum.In addition to the steady-state P/E ratio method, the Gordon growth model is another way to gauge steady-state firm value.Gordon Growth Model (Valuation Theory)The key assumption here other than cost of capital is GDP growth. GDP growth is typically used as a key benchmark to gauge the implied perpetual growth of a company, with addition consideration of the maturity of its industry as well as other company-specific factors such as market leadership, competitive advantages, and/or market share:Companies operating in industries that are higher growth in nature are typically valued at a perpetual growth rate closer to or more than GDP, given their greater contributions to economic growth. Alternatively, companies operating in lower growth and/or mature industries are typically allocated a lower perpetual growth rate.Source: \"Shorting Tesla: Bridging Lofty Valuations to Economics\"As discussed in the earlier section, demand is likely to show a marked slowdown in coming months as consumer purchasing power wanes, especially if unemployment worsens, which will lead to further deteriorating in economic growth. Even though the labor market has remained largely resilient despite the recent slew of high-paid tech layoffs (accounts foronly ~2%of total U.S. employment), consumer weakness is expected to tame demand further and eventually hit corporate earnings, potentially resulting in more cost-driven job cuts. This is further corroborated by the gradual uptick in recent jobless claimsas well as jobless rate to \"3.7%from a more than five-decade low\". This means GDP is likely to slow as interest rates increase, widening the spread between cost of capital and growth in the denominator of the Gordon growth model, and inadvertently, diminishing the steady-state firm value.Future Value Creation PremiumThe future value creation premium accounts for the incremental value that additional investments at the cost of capital would earn (i.e. return on capital), and also takes into consideration the time period in which this value-creating opportunity would last.Future Value Creation Formula (Valuation Theory)This is essentially a premium to the steady-state firm value, and explains the lofty valuations relative to broader markets observed in certain stocks, such as Apple(AAPL), Tesla(TSLA) and Snowflake(SNOW), today. Admittedly, these companies have either or all of outperforming balance sheets, profit margins, and/or growth prospects relative to peers, but not all are valued in proportion to the mean growth-valuation ratio observed among their respective peer groups.In addition to the \"competitive advantage period\", which measures the anticipated time period in which the added value-creating opportunity would last, key assumptions in deriving future value creation premium is return on capital and cost of capital. And return on capital can be substituted by anticipated economic expansion, or GDP growth - when the economy is good, growth and profit margins will likely perform better, and vice versa. But as discussed in the earlier section, GDP growth is likely skewed to the downside within the foreseeable future as demand continues to slow and profit margins get squeezed as a result of high input costs, and near-term requirements for more-than-usual promotional offers to offload excess product inventories.Paired with the anticipation for greater increases to the cost of capital as a result of Fed hawkishness that will more likely than not continue for a while longer, the cost-return spread in the numerator of the future value creation component of valuation is poised to narrow. And as cost of capital continues to increase, the denominator will also expand, hence diminishing the future value creation component of broader market valuations, which corroborates the expectation for more downside potential within the near-term.Implications for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 - Is the Bottom Near?Based on valuation theory, and the anticipation for sustained hawkish Fed sentiment drawn from historical observations, the broader market is likely to see further volatility ahead as valuations adjust to rising rates and declining demand. While the timing at which markets will bottom remains uncertain, we are of the view that company fundamentals are only just starting to feel the impact of consumer weakness, which points to further value erosion through 1H23.Specifically, consumer spending has remained resilient through the first half of 2022 despite deteriorating sentiment due to surging inflation and rising borrowing costs. But headed into the first half of the fourth quarter, declining business activity and warnings of a marked slowdown among consumer-centric industries such as retail underscore that waning consumer sentiment is now really materializing into real weakness. This is further supported by the consistent drop in American household savings and rise in credit card debt, among other observations, discussed earlier on in this analysis.And a specific note to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ: QQQ/NDX), constituents' valuations are likely to be hit harder compared to those in the S&P 500 given their cash flows are further out (with some still in pre-revenue phase and/or unprofitable) from realization and subject to a heavier discount as costs of capital increase. The index also consists of constituents with some of the biggest valuation premiums given lofty forward growth expectations previously priced in that may not materialize as expected within the foreseeable future, thus pointing to greater vulnerability to downside risks ahead.And given risks of further macro deterioration are now skewed higher with recent economic data pointing to a moderation in the labor market, while monetary policy tightening continues to flow through different corners of the economy, the ensuing rise in the likelihood of a recession will likely take the market a leg lower through the first half of 2023, even if we start to see structural easing in price pressures.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,"QQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966065695,"gmtCreate":1669350347217,"gmtModify":1676538187466,"author":{"id":"3586829232043276","authorId":"3586829232043276","name":"clingling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac8266443879ca0b9b00e68416a1244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586829232043276","authorIdStr":"3586829232043276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966065695","repostId":"1158497439","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158497439","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669346704,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158497439?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-25 11:25","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"NIO Starts Delivery of ET7 in Denmark","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158497439","media":"CnEVPost","summary":"NIO ET7 deliveries have now started in all five European countries, including Germany, the Netherlan","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>NIO ET7 deliveries have now started in all five European countries, including Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and Denmark.</li></ul><p>NIO began delivery of the ET7 in Denmark after the flagship sedan was delivered to consumers in Sweden last week.</p><p>ET7 deliveries officially began in Denmark this week, said Gerald Krainer, head of customer development and customer operations for NIO Europe, in a post on the company&#39;s mobile app Thursday.</p><p>The ET7 has now been delivered in all five European countries, including Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and Denmark, the article said.</p><p>NIO held its NIO Berlin launch event on October 7 European time to introduce its three newest models -- the ET7, EL7 and ET5 -- to European consumers. The EL7 is known as the ES7 in China.</p><p>Unlike the vehicles it sells directly in Norway and China, NIO is initially offering a service it calls NIO Subscription in Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark and Sweden that allows local consumers to lease vehicles only, not buy them.</p><p>On November 21, the company began offering purchase options for consumers in those four countries and announced the selling prices. Deliveries of cars with the purchase option are expected to begin in 2023.</p><p>Denmark&#39;s first ET7 user, Jakob Laustsen, CEO of Aros Leasing, chose a white ET7, according to an article in the NIO App.</p><p>Laustsen thinks NIO&#39;s BaaS (battery as a service) is a great feature and that the battery swap station in Denmark, which will soon be operational, will give him access to a fully charged battery at all times.</p><p>On October 18, NIO said it made itsfirst ET7 deliveries in Germany and the Netherlands, while customers from Denmark, Sweden and Norway test-drove the sedan.</p><p>On November 15,NIO delivered the ET7 to consumers in Swedenfor the first time.</p><p>The NIO ET7 won the Technological Frontrunner award at theAuto Awards Denmarkon November 22, beating out competition including the Mercedes-Benz EQS and Tesla Model Y.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Starts Delivery of ET7 in Denmark</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Starts Delivery of ET7 in Denmark\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-25 11:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://cnevpost.com/2022/11/25/nio-starts-delivery-of-et7-in-denmark/><strong>CnEVPost</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>NIO ET7 deliveries have now started in all five European countries, including Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and Denmark.NIO began delivery of the ET7 in Denmark after the flagship sedan was...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cnevpost.com/2022/11/25/nio-starts-delivery-of-et7-in-denmark/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO.SI":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://cnevpost.com/2022/11/25/nio-starts-delivery-of-et7-in-denmark/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158497439","content_text":"NIO ET7 deliveries have now started in all five European countries, including Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and Denmark.NIO began delivery of the ET7 in Denmark after the flagship sedan was delivered to consumers in Sweden last week.ET7 deliveries officially began in Denmark this week, said Gerald Krainer, head of customer development and customer operations for NIO Europe, in a post on the company's mobile app Thursday.The ET7 has now been delivered in all five European countries, including Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and Denmark, the article said.NIO held its NIO Berlin launch event on October 7 European time to introduce its three newest models -- the ET7, EL7 and ET5 -- to European consumers. The EL7 is known as the ES7 in China.Unlike the vehicles it sells directly in Norway and China, NIO is initially offering a service it calls NIO Subscription in Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark and Sweden that allows local consumers to lease vehicles only, not buy them.On November 21, the company began offering purchase options for consumers in those four countries and announced the selling prices. Deliveries of cars with the purchase option are expected to begin in 2023.Denmark's first ET7 user, Jakob Laustsen, CEO of Aros Leasing, chose a white ET7, according to an article in the NIO App.Laustsen thinks NIO's BaaS (battery as a service) is a great feature and that the battery swap station in Denmark, which will soon be operational, will give him access to a fully charged battery at all times.On October 18, NIO said it made itsfirst ET7 deliveries in Germany and the Netherlands, while customers from Denmark, Sweden and Norway test-drove the sedan.On November 15,NIO delivered the ET7 to consumers in Swedenfor the first time.The NIO ET7 won the Technological Frontrunner award at theAuto Awards Denmarkon November 22, beating out competition including the Mercedes-Benz EQS and Tesla Model Y.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09866":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"NIO.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961264420,"gmtCreate":1668987369460,"gmtModify":1676538133837,"author":{"id":"3586829232043276","authorId":"3586829232043276","name":"clingling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac8266443879ca0b9b00e68416a1244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586829232043276","authorIdStr":"3586829232043276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961264420","repostId":"1153022669","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":909,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":830138178,"gmtCreate":1629025346194,"gmtModify":1676529912868,"author":{"id":"3586829232043276","authorId":"3586829232043276","name":"clingling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac8266443879ca0b9b00e68416a1244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586829232043276","authorIdStr":"3586829232043276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830138178","repostId":"1138531277","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":589,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3579506230138289","authorId":"3579506230138289","name":"BigMac8885","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579506230138289","authorIdStr":"3579506230138289"},"content":"Pls help too :)","text":"Pls help too :)","html":"Pls help too :)"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839098482,"gmtCreate":1629104481546,"gmtModify":1676529931300,"author":{"id":"3586829232043276","authorId":"3586829232043276","name":"clingling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac8266443879ca0b9b00e68416a1244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586829232043276","authorIdStr":"3586829232043276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/839098482","repostId":"2159247965","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2159247965","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1629104174,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2159247965?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-16 16:56","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Hong Kong's Hang Seng slips as China data disappoints","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2159247965","media":"Reuters","summary":"* Hang Seng index ends down 0.8%\n* China Enterprises index HSCE falls 1.2%\n* HSI financial sector su","content":"<p>* Hang Seng index ends down 0.8%</p>\n<p>* China Enterprises index HSCE falls 1.2%</p>\n<p>* HSI financial sector sub-index is flat; property sector up 0.7%</p>\n<p>Aug 16 (Reuters) - Hong Kong's <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">HSI</a> fell on Monday as weak data offered a gloomier outlook for China's economic recovery.</p>\n<p>** At the close of trade, the Hang Seng index was down 210.16 points or 0.8% at 26,181.46. The Hang Seng China Enterprises index&nbsp;fell 1.2% to 9,265.24.</p>\n<p>** China's factory output and retail sales growth slowed sharply and missed expectations in July, as new COVID-19 outbreaks and floods disrupted business operations, adding to signs the economic recovery is losing momentum.</p>\n<p>** Investor sentiment regarding Chinese tech firms also took another hit following a state media commentary on the weekend calling for stronger vetting of online games and \"zero tolerance\" toward those that distort history.</p>\n<p>** The IT sector fell 3.21% and the Hang Seng Tech index was down 2.57%.</p>\n<p>** Trading volume was relatively light, with only about 1.48 billion Hang Seng index shares traded, roughly 69.4% of the market's 30-day moving average of 2.13 billion shares per day.</p>\n<p>** China's main Shanghai Composite index&nbsp;(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">SSE Comp</a>) closed up 0.03% at 3,517.34 points, while the blue-chip <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000300.SH\">CSI300</a> index ended down 0.1%.</p>\n<p>** Around the region, MSCI's Asia ex-Japan stock index</p>\n<p>fell 0.49% and Japan's Nikkei index closed down 1.62%.</p>\n<p>** The yuan was quoted at 6.4769 per U.S. dollar at 0812 GMT, little changed from its previous close at 6.4767.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong's Hang Seng slips as China data disappoints</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong's Hang Seng slips as China data disappoints\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-16 16:56</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>* Hang Seng index ends down 0.8%</p>\n<p>* China Enterprises index HSCE falls 1.2%</p>\n<p>* HSI financial sector sub-index is flat; property sector up 0.7%</p>\n<p>Aug 16 (Reuters) - Hong Kong's <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">HSI</a> fell on Monday as weak data offered a gloomier outlook for China's economic recovery.</p>\n<p>** At the close of trade, the Hang Seng index was down 210.16 points or 0.8% at 26,181.46. The Hang Seng China Enterprises index&nbsp;fell 1.2% to 9,265.24.</p>\n<p>** China's factory output and retail sales growth slowed sharply and missed expectations in July, as new COVID-19 outbreaks and floods disrupted business operations, adding to signs the economic recovery is losing momentum.</p>\n<p>** Investor sentiment regarding Chinese tech firms also took another hit following a state media commentary on the weekend calling for stronger vetting of online games and \"zero tolerance\" toward those that distort history.</p>\n<p>** The IT sector fell 3.21% and the Hang Seng Tech index was down 2.57%.</p>\n<p>** Trading volume was relatively light, with only about 1.48 billion Hang Seng index shares traded, roughly 69.4% of the market's 30-day moving average of 2.13 billion shares per day.</p>\n<p>** China's main Shanghai Composite index&nbsp;(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">SSE Comp</a>) closed up 0.03% at 3,517.34 points, while the blue-chip <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000300.SH\">CSI300</a> index ended down 0.1%.</p>\n<p>** Around the region, MSCI's Asia ex-Japan stock index</p>\n<p>fell 0.49% and Japan's Nikkei index closed down 1.62%.</p>\n<p>** The yuan was quoted at 6.4769 per U.S. dollar at 0812 GMT, little changed from its previous close at 6.4767.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"000300.SH":"沪深300","000001.SH":"上证指数","HSI":"恒生指数","HSCEI":"国企指数"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2159247965","content_text":"* Hang Seng index ends down 0.8%\n* China Enterprises index HSCE falls 1.2%\n* HSI financial sector sub-index is flat; property sector up 0.7%\nAug 16 (Reuters) - Hong Kong's HSI fell on Monday as weak data offered a gloomier outlook for China's economic recovery.\n** At the close of trade, the Hang Seng index was down 210.16 points or 0.8% at 26,181.46. The Hang Seng China Enterprises index fell 1.2% to 9,265.24.\n** China's factory output and retail sales growth slowed sharply and missed expectations in July, as new COVID-19 outbreaks and floods disrupted business operations, adding to signs the economic recovery is losing momentum.\n** Investor sentiment regarding Chinese tech firms also took another hit following a state media commentary on the weekend calling for stronger vetting of online games and \"zero tolerance\" toward those that distort history.\n** The IT sector fell 3.21% and the Hang Seng Tech index was down 2.57%.\n** Trading volume was relatively light, with only about 1.48 billion Hang Seng index shares traded, roughly 69.4% of the market's 30-day moving average of 2.13 billion shares per day.\n** China's main Shanghai Composite index (SSE Comp) closed up 0.03% at 3,517.34 points, while the blue-chip CSI300 index ended down 0.1%.\n** Around the region, MSCI's Asia ex-Japan stock index\nfell 0.49% and Japan's Nikkei index closed down 1.62%.\n** The yuan was quoted at 6.4769 per U.S. dollar at 0812 GMT, little changed from its previous close at 6.4767.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSCEI":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"000300.SH":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887670019,"gmtCreate":1632034831231,"gmtModify":1676530690691,"author":{"id":"3586829232043276","authorId":"3586829232043276","name":"clingling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac8266443879ca0b9b00e68416a1244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586829232043276","authorIdStr":"3586829232043276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/887670019","repostId":"1171558890","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171558890","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631921912,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1171558890?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-18 07:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US IPO Week Ahead: Software, consumer products, and payment tech lead a diverse 14 IPO week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171558890","media":"renaissancecap...","summary":"Summer may be over, but the IPO market is just heating up as 14 IPOs are slated to raise $5.3 billio","content":"<p>Summer may be over, but the IPO market is just heating up as 14 IPOs are slated to raise $5.3 billion in the week ahead. The diverse group includes software, consumer products, payment technology, and more.</p>\n<p>The largest deal of the week,<b>Freshworks</b>(FRSH) plans to raise $855 million at a $9.6 billion market cap. The company’s core product is its customer support software, and it also offers IT service management software and a nascent competitor to CRM solutions. While losses are expected to increase with S&amp;M spending, Freshworks has delivered solid growth and 100%+ net dollar-based revenue retention as of 6/30/21.</p>\n<p>Canadian consumer products company&nbsp;<b>Knowlton Development</b>(KDC) plans to raise $800 million at a $3.1 billion market cap. Over the past three years, Knowlton has been responsible for co-developing 9,000+ products across a variety of categories, and its products are sold by its brand partners in 70+ countries. Despite using offering proceeds to pay down debt, Knowlton will be leveraged post-IPO.</p>\n<p>Restaurant payment processor&nbsp;<b>Toast</b>(TOST) plans to raise $685 million at a $17.9 billion market cap. Toast provides a suite of integrated payment and software solutions that are designed to streamline restaurant operations. The company grew ARR over 100% in the 1H21, though it has historically been unprofitable, and growth could slow as tailwinds from restaurants reopening abate.</p>\n<p>Global money transfer firm&nbsp;<b>Remitly Global</b>(RELY) plans to raise $487 million at a $7.5 billion market cap. Remitly provides digital financial services for immigrants and their families in over 135 countries, and it has expanded its core cross-border remittance product to over 1,700 corridors worldwide. The company has demonstrated growth and margin improvement, though it remains unprofitable.</p>\n<p>Software firm&nbsp;<b>Clearwater Analytics</b>(CWAN) plans to raise $450 million at a $3.7 billion market cap. Clearwater provides its 1,000+ clients with cloud-native software that allows them to simplify their investment accounting operations, and the company has a 100% recurring revenue model. A new investor and certain existing shareholders intend to purchase $150 million worth of shares in the IPO.</p>\n<p>Food company&nbsp;<b>Sovos Brands</b>(SOVO) plans to raise $350 million at a $1.5 billion market cap. Formed by Advent International, Sovos Brands offers a select group of acquired premium food brands. According to the company, its largest brand of products, Rao's, included the #1 selling SKU in the pasta and pizza sauce category. Profitable with solid growth, Sovos will be leveraged post-IPO.</p>\n<p>Customer engagement software provider&nbsp;<b>EngageSmart</b>(ESMT) plans to raise $349 million at a $4.1 billion market cap. The company provides software that simplifies online workflows like paperless billing, electronic payment processing, scheduling, and client communication. While growth may slow post-pandemic, EngageSmart has a sticky customer based and a long track record of profitability.</p>\n<p>Hiring solutions provider&nbsp;<b>Sterling Check</b>(STER) plans to raise $300 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. Sterling is one of the leading US providers of background checks for corporate and government customers. The company serves more than 50% of the Fortune 100, often with exclusive contracts, though it operates in a highly competitive market.</p>\n<p>Jewelry retailer&nbsp;<b>Brilliant Earth Group</b>(BRLT) plans to raise $250 million at a $1.4 billion. Brilliant Earth is a digital-first jewelry company and a global leader in ethically sourced fine jewelry. The company has sold to consumers in all US states and over 50 countries, and has served over 370,000 customers through its e-commerce platform and 13 showrooms.</p>\n<p>Online fashion platform&nbsp;<b>a.k.a. Brands</b>(AKA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.3 billion market cap. a.k.a. acquires digitally-focused fashion brands oriented toward millennial and Gen Z consumers, starting with its acquisition of Princess Polly in 2018. The company has successfully expanded Princess Polly and has a long runway to grow its brands in the US, but its M&amp;A strategy carries execution risk.</p>\n<p>COVID-19 test maker&nbsp;<b>Cue Health</b>(HLTH) plans to raise $200 million at a $2.4 billion market cap. Cue’s first commercially available diagnostic test for use with its Cue Health Monitoring System is its COVID-19 Test Kit, which has been authorized by two EUAs. Cue has five additional Test Kits in late-stage technical development, for which it expects to begin seeking FDA authorization or clearance in the 2H22.</p>\n<p>London-listed crypto mining company&nbsp;<b>Argo Blockchain</b>(ARBK) plans to raise $138 million at an $855 million market cap. Argo states that it is a leading blockchain technology company focused on large-scale mining of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Argo has a fleet of more than 21,000 purpose-built computers (mining machines) and can generate more than 1,075 petahash per second.</p>\n<p>Personalized supplements seller&nbsp;<b>Thorne Healthtech</b>(THRN) plans to raise $126 million at an $892 million market cap. The company’s vertically integrated brands, Thorne and Onegevity, provide actionable insights and personalized data, products, and services. Profitable with strong growth, Thorne has a base of more than 3 million customers.</p>\n<p>Canadian bank&nbsp;<b>VersaBank</b>(VBNK) plans to raise $50 million at a $269 million market cap. VersaBank is a Canadian Schedule I chartered bank and states that it is one of the world's first fully digital financial institutions. As of July 31, 2021, VersaBank had $1.8 billion in assets, $1.6 billion in loans, $1.5 billion in deposits, and $202 million in stockholders' equity.</p>","source":"lsy1619493174116","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US IPO Week Ahead: Software, consumer products, and payment tech lead a diverse 14 IPO week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS IPO Week Ahead: Software, consumer products, and payment tech lead a diverse 14 IPO week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-18 07:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/86272/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Software-consumer-products-and-payment-tech-lead-a-divers><strong>renaissancecap...</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summer may be over, but the IPO market is just heating up as 14 IPOs are slated to raise $5.3 billion in the week ahead. The diverse group includes software, consumer products, payment technology, and...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/86272/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Software-consumer-products-and-payment-tech-lead-a-divers\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TOST":"Toast, Inc.","STER":"Sterling Check Corp.","RELY":"Remitly Global, Inc.","SOVO":"Sovos Brands, Inc.","BRLT":"Brilliant Earth Group, Inc.","ARBK":"Argo Blockchain Plc","FRSH":"Freshworks","AKA":"a.k.a. Brands Holding Corp.","THRN":"Thorne Healthtech","HLTH":"Cue Health Inc.","ESMT":"EngageSmart Inc.","CWAN":"Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/86272/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Software-consumer-products-and-payment-tech-lead-a-divers","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171558890","content_text":"Summer may be over, but the IPO market is just heating up as 14 IPOs are slated to raise $5.3 billion in the week ahead. The diverse group includes software, consumer products, payment technology, and more.\nThe largest deal of the week,Freshworks(FRSH) plans to raise $855 million at a $9.6 billion market cap. The company’s core product is its customer support software, and it also offers IT service management software and a nascent competitor to CRM solutions. While losses are expected to increase with S&M spending, Freshworks has delivered solid growth and 100%+ net dollar-based revenue retention as of 6/30/21.\nCanadian consumer products company Knowlton Development(KDC) plans to raise $800 million at a $3.1 billion market cap. Over the past three years, Knowlton has been responsible for co-developing 9,000+ products across a variety of categories, and its products are sold by its brand partners in 70+ countries. Despite using offering proceeds to pay down debt, Knowlton will be leveraged post-IPO.\nRestaurant payment processor Toast(TOST) plans to raise $685 million at a $17.9 billion market cap. Toast provides a suite of integrated payment and software solutions that are designed to streamline restaurant operations. The company grew ARR over 100% in the 1H21, though it has historically been unprofitable, and growth could slow as tailwinds from restaurants reopening abate.\nGlobal money transfer firm Remitly Global(RELY) plans to raise $487 million at a $7.5 billion market cap. Remitly provides digital financial services for immigrants and their families in over 135 countries, and it has expanded its core cross-border remittance product to over 1,700 corridors worldwide. The company has demonstrated growth and margin improvement, though it remains unprofitable.\nSoftware firm Clearwater Analytics(CWAN) plans to raise $450 million at a $3.7 billion market cap. Clearwater provides its 1,000+ clients with cloud-native software that allows them to simplify their investment accounting operations, and the company has a 100% recurring revenue model. A new investor and certain existing shareholders intend to purchase $150 million worth of shares in the IPO.\nFood company Sovos Brands(SOVO) plans to raise $350 million at a $1.5 billion market cap. Formed by Advent International, Sovos Brands offers a select group of acquired premium food brands. According to the company, its largest brand of products, Rao's, included the #1 selling SKU in the pasta and pizza sauce category. Profitable with solid growth, Sovos will be leveraged post-IPO.\nCustomer engagement software provider EngageSmart(ESMT) plans to raise $349 million at a $4.1 billion market cap. The company provides software that simplifies online workflows like paperless billing, electronic payment processing, scheduling, and client communication. While growth may slow post-pandemic, EngageSmart has a sticky customer based and a long track record of profitability.\nHiring solutions provider Sterling Check(STER) plans to raise $300 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. Sterling is one of the leading US providers of background checks for corporate and government customers. The company serves more than 50% of the Fortune 100, often with exclusive contracts, though it operates in a highly competitive market.\nJewelry retailer Brilliant Earth Group(BRLT) plans to raise $250 million at a $1.4 billion. Brilliant Earth is a digital-first jewelry company and a global leader in ethically sourced fine jewelry. The company has sold to consumers in all US states and over 50 countries, and has served over 370,000 customers through its e-commerce platform and 13 showrooms.\nOnline fashion platform a.k.a. Brands(AKA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.3 billion market cap. a.k.a. acquires digitally-focused fashion brands oriented toward millennial and Gen Z consumers, starting with its acquisition of Princess Polly in 2018. The company has successfully expanded Princess Polly and has a long runway to grow its brands in the US, but its M&A strategy carries execution risk.\nCOVID-19 test maker Cue Health(HLTH) plans to raise $200 million at a $2.4 billion market cap. Cue’s first commercially available diagnostic test for use with its Cue Health Monitoring System is its COVID-19 Test Kit, which has been authorized by two EUAs. Cue has five additional Test Kits in late-stage technical development, for which it expects to begin seeking FDA authorization or clearance in the 2H22.\nLondon-listed crypto mining company Argo Blockchain(ARBK) plans to raise $138 million at an $855 million market cap. Argo states that it is a leading blockchain technology company focused on large-scale mining of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Argo has a fleet of more than 21,000 purpose-built computers (mining machines) and can generate more than 1,075 petahash per second.\nPersonalized supplements seller Thorne Healthtech(THRN) plans to raise $126 million at an $892 million market cap. The company’s vertically integrated brands, Thorne and Onegevity, provide actionable insights and personalized data, products, and services. Profitable with strong growth, Thorne has a base of more than 3 million customers.\nCanadian bank VersaBank(VBNK) plans to raise $50 million at a $269 million market cap. VersaBank is a Canadian Schedule I chartered bank and states that it is one of the world's first fully digital financial institutions. As of July 31, 2021, VersaBank had $1.8 billion in assets, $1.6 billion in loans, $1.5 billion in deposits, and $202 million in stockholders' equity.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"THRN":0.9,"TOST":0.9,"SOVO":0.9,"FRSH":0.9,"KDC":0.9,"ESMT":0.9,"BRLT":0.9,"AKA":0.9,"ARBK":0.9,"HLTH":0.9,"STER":0.9,"RELY":0.9,"CWAN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889414621,"gmtCreate":1631168656263,"gmtModify":1676530485744,"author":{"id":"3586829232043276","authorId":"3586829232043276","name":"clingling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac8266443879ca0b9b00e68416a1244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586829232043276","authorIdStr":"3586829232043276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889414621","repostId":"2165399556","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":649,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817959041,"gmtCreate":1630899852383,"gmtModify":1676530416118,"author":{"id":"3586829232043276","authorId":"3586829232043276","name":"clingling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac8266443879ca0b9b00e68416a1244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586829232043276","authorIdStr":"3586829232043276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/817959041","repostId":"1126654067","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126654067","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630885254,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126654067?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-06 07:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is the U.S. stock market open on Labor Day?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126654067","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It is unofficially summer’s last hurrah for Wall Street investors.\nU.S. financial markets will be cl","content":"<p>It is unofficially summer’s last hurrah for Wall Street investors.</p>\n<p>U.S. financial markets will be closed for Labor Day on Monday, Sept. 6, marking a three-day weekend in the U.S., following what has been a mostly spectacular run for the stock market. The rally came despite concerns about the spread of the delta variant of the coronavirus and unease about the timetable for an eventual rollback of easy-money policies implemented by the Federal Reserve at the onset of the pandemic last year.</p>\n<p>On Monday, U.S. stock exchanges, including the Intercontinental Exchange Inc.&nbsp;-owned New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Inc.,will be closed, so don’t look for any action in individual stocks or indexes including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;or Nasdaq Composite indexes.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 has already notched 54 record closing highs in 2021 and was looking for its 55th on Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;was on track to book its 35th&nbsp;all-time high of the year. The Dow stood less than a percentage point from its Aug. 16 record, mid-afternoon Friday.</p>\n<p>Sifma, the securities-industry trade group for fixed-income, also has recommended the bond market close on Labor Day, including trading in the 10-year Treasury note,which was&nbsp;yielding around 1.33%&nbsp;after the U.S. August jobs report came in weaker than expected.</p>\n<p>However, the&nbsp;Labor Department’s employment report,which showed that&nbsp;235,000 jobs were created in August, far below expectations for more than 700,000, failed to dull expectations among sovereign debt investors for a near-term announcement of tapering of the Fed’s $120 billion in monthly purchases in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.</p>\n<p>Trading in most commodity futures, including Nymex crude-oil&nbsp;and Comex gold,on U.S. exchanges will also be halted Monday.</p>\n<p>Is there any significance to the holiday for average investors, besides the time off in the U.S. and the barbecues?</p>\n<p>Probably not.</p>\n<p>But the May Memorial Day to September Labor Day period in recent years has proven a bullish stretch one for investors, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Dow, for example, is up by about 2% over that period and averages a gain of 1.3%, producing a winning record 65% of the time. The Dow is currently enjoying a win streak, over the past six Memorial Day/Labor Day periods, representing the longest win streak since 1989. Last year, the markets gained nearly 15% over that time.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3f0f061a4ddd2ca31c53f8aa68e3cce\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"564\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DOW JONES MARKET DATA</span></p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 is on a similar win streak and is up nearly 8% so far this Memorial Day-Labor Day period. It has risen more than 70% over that period in past years and averages a 1.7% gain. The broad-market index rose 16% during that time in 2020.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c780a46e32d055feb3e3f5e10fc987f\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"564\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DOW JONES MARKET DATA</span></p>\n<p>But if there is a bona fide trend in the Labor Day trading it may be this one that MarketWatch’s&nbsp;Steve Goldstein reports, quoting Raymond James strategist Tavis McCourt, who says that in the last two years, there was a big value and cyclical bias in stock markets after the holiday, and in 2018, markets basically collapsed after the summer drew to a close.</p>\n<p>It is impossible to know if the stock market rally will peter out similarly this time around but there is a growing sense on Wall Street that valuations are too lofty and equity indexes are due for a pullback of at least 5% or better from current heights.</p>\n<p>Markets will be back to business as usual on Tuesday and, of course, European bourses, including London’s FTSE 100&nbsp;index and the pan-European Stoxx Europe 600&nbsp;will be open on Monday, as well as Asian markets, the Nikkei 225,Hong Kong’s Hang Seng&nbsp;and the Shanghai Composite Index.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the U.S. stock market open on Labor Day?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the U.S. stock market open on Labor Day?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-06 07:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-u-s-stock-market-open-on-labor-day-11630697597?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It is unofficially summer’s last hurrah for Wall Street investors.\nU.S. financial markets will be closed for Labor Day on Monday, Sept. 6, marking a three-day weekend in the U.S., following what has ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-u-s-stock-market-open-on-labor-day-11630697597?mod=home-page\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","ICE":"洲际交易所",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-u-s-stock-market-open-on-labor-day-11630697597?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126654067","content_text":"It is unofficially summer’s last hurrah for Wall Street investors.\nU.S. financial markets will be closed for Labor Day on Monday, Sept. 6, marking a three-day weekend in the U.S., following what has been a mostly spectacular run for the stock market. The rally came despite concerns about the spread of the delta variant of the coronavirus and unease about the timetable for an eventual rollback of easy-money policies implemented by the Federal Reserve at the onset of the pandemic last year.\nOn Monday, U.S. stock exchanges, including the Intercontinental Exchange Inc. -owned New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Inc.,will be closed, so don’t look for any action in individual stocks or indexes including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite indexes.\nThe S&P 500 has already notched 54 record closing highs in 2021 and was looking for its 55th on Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite was on track to book its 35th all-time high of the year. The Dow stood less than a percentage point from its Aug. 16 record, mid-afternoon Friday.\nSifma, the securities-industry trade group for fixed-income, also has recommended the bond market close on Labor Day, including trading in the 10-year Treasury note,which was yielding around 1.33% after the U.S. August jobs report came in weaker than expected.\nHowever, the Labor Department’s employment report,which showed that 235,000 jobs were created in August, far below expectations for more than 700,000, failed to dull expectations among sovereign debt investors for a near-term announcement of tapering of the Fed’s $120 billion in monthly purchases in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.\nTrading in most commodity futures, including Nymex crude-oil and Comex gold,on U.S. exchanges will also be halted Monday.\nIs there any significance to the holiday for average investors, besides the time off in the U.S. and the barbecues?\nProbably not.\nBut the May Memorial Day to September Labor Day period in recent years has proven a bullish stretch one for investors, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Dow, for example, is up by about 2% over that period and averages a gain of 1.3%, producing a winning record 65% of the time. The Dow is currently enjoying a win streak, over the past six Memorial Day/Labor Day periods, representing the longest win streak since 1989. Last year, the markets gained nearly 15% over that time.\nDOW JONES MARKET DATA\nThe S&P 500 is on a similar win streak and is up nearly 8% so far this Memorial Day-Labor Day period. It has risen more than 70% over that period in past years and averages a 1.7% gain. The broad-market index rose 16% during that time in 2020.\nDOW JONES MARKET DATA\nBut if there is a bona fide trend in the Labor Day trading it may be this one that MarketWatch’s Steve Goldstein reports, quoting Raymond James strategist Tavis McCourt, who says that in the last two years, there was a big value and cyclical bias in stock markets after the holiday, and in 2018, markets basically collapsed after the summer drew to a close.\nIt is impossible to know if the stock market rally will peter out similarly this time around but there is a growing sense on Wall Street that valuations are too lofty and equity indexes are due for a pullback of at least 5% or better from current heights.\nMarkets will be back to business as usual on Tuesday and, of course, European bourses, including London’s FTSE 100 index and the pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 will be open on Monday, as well as Asian markets, the Nikkei 225,Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and the Shanghai Composite Index.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ICE":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":599,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815812300,"gmtCreate":1630665092300,"gmtModify":1676530370164,"author":{"id":"3586829232043276","authorId":"3586829232043276","name":"clingling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac8266443879ca0b9b00e68416a1244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586829232043276","authorIdStr":"3586829232043276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/815812300","repostId":"2164876904","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2164876904","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1630663092,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2164876904?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-03 17:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AstraZeneca reaches settlement with EU on COVID-19 vaccine delivery","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2164876904","media":"Reuters","summary":"Sept 3 (Reuters) - AstraZeneca and the European Commission and have reached a settlement on the deli","content":"<p>Sept 3 (Reuters) - AstraZeneca&nbsp;and the European Commission and have reached a settlement on the delivery of pending COVID-19 vaccine doses by the drugmaker, ending a row about shortages that had weighed on the company and the region's vaccination campaign.</p>\n<p>The dispute plunged the European Union into crisis earlier this year as states, under pressure to speed up vaccinations, scrambled for shots. It also caused a public relations crisis for AstraZeneca, which is led by Frenchman Pascal Soriot.</p>\n<p>Brussels has since reduced its reliance on the Anglo-Swedish drugmaker, with vaccine supplies coming from Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna and Johnson &amp; Johnson.</p>\n<p>Under Friday's settlement</p>\n<p>AstraZeneca has committed to deliver 60 million doses of its vaccine, Vaxzevria, by the end of the third quarter this year, 75 million by the end of the fourth quarter and 65 million by the end of the first quarter of 2022.</p>\n<p>The European Commission launched legal action against AstraZeneca in April</p>\n<p>for not respecting its contract for the supply of COVID-19 vaccines and for not having a \"reliable\" plan to ensure timely deliveries.</p>\n<p>The EU's executive body said</p>\n<p>that under the new agreement, member states would be provided with regular delivery schedules and if there were any delayed doses, capped rebates would be applied.</p>\n<p>VACCINATION RATES</p>\n<p>\"There are significant differences in vaccination rates between our member states, and the continued availability of vaccines, including AstraZeneca's, remain crucial,\" said EU Commissioner for Health and Food Safety Stella Kyriakides.</p>\n<p>The EU settlement allows for distribution while the highly-contagious Delta variant of the coronavirus is causing a spike in cases and vaccines are being studied for longevity of protection.</p>\n<p>\"I'm very pleased that we have been able to reach a common understanding which allows us to move forward and work in collaboration with the European Commission to help overcome the pandemic,\" said AstraZeneca senior executive Ruud Dobber.</p>\n<p>The European Commission said this week that 70% of the European Union's adult population had been fully vaccinated against COVID-19, hitting a target it set at the beginning of the year.</p>\n<p>About 92 million doses of AstraZeneca's vaccine have been distributed to EU member states so far, according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. That is far below the 437 million doses delivered by Pfizer/BioNTech.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AstraZeneca reaches settlement with EU on COVID-19 vaccine delivery</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAstraZeneca reaches settlement with EU on COVID-19 vaccine delivery\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-03 17:58</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Sept 3 (Reuters) - AstraZeneca&nbsp;and the European Commission and have reached a settlement on the delivery of pending COVID-19 vaccine doses by the drugmaker, ending a row about shortages that had weighed on the company and the region's vaccination campaign.</p>\n<p>The dispute plunged the European Union into crisis earlier this year as states, under pressure to speed up vaccinations, scrambled for shots. It also caused a public relations crisis for AstraZeneca, which is led by Frenchman Pascal Soriot.</p>\n<p>Brussels has since reduced its reliance on the Anglo-Swedish drugmaker, with vaccine supplies coming from Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna and Johnson &amp; Johnson.</p>\n<p>Under Friday's settlement</p>\n<p>AstraZeneca has committed to deliver 60 million doses of its vaccine, Vaxzevria, by the end of the third quarter this year, 75 million by the end of the fourth quarter and 65 million by the end of the first quarter of 2022.</p>\n<p>The European Commission launched legal action against AstraZeneca in April</p>\n<p>for not respecting its contract for the supply of COVID-19 vaccines and for not having a \"reliable\" plan to ensure timely deliveries.</p>\n<p>The EU's executive body said</p>\n<p>that under the new agreement, member states would be provided with regular delivery schedules and if there were any delayed doses, capped rebates would be applied.</p>\n<p>VACCINATION RATES</p>\n<p>\"There are significant differences in vaccination rates between our member states, and the continued availability of vaccines, including AstraZeneca's, remain crucial,\" said EU Commissioner for Health and Food Safety Stella Kyriakides.</p>\n<p>The EU settlement allows for distribution while the highly-contagious Delta variant of the coronavirus is causing a spike in cases and vaccines are being studied for longevity of protection.</p>\n<p>\"I'm very pleased that we have been able to reach a common understanding which allows us to move forward and work in collaboration with the European Commission to help overcome the pandemic,\" said AstraZeneca senior executive Ruud Dobber.</p>\n<p>The European Commission said this week that 70% of the European Union's adult population had been fully vaccinated against COVID-19, hitting a target it set at the beginning of the year.</p>\n<p>About 92 million doses of AstraZeneca's vaccine have been distributed to EU member states so far, according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. That is far below the 437 million doses delivered by Pfizer/BioNTech.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AZN":"阿斯利康","JNJ":"强生","PFE":"辉瑞","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2164876904","content_text":"Sept 3 (Reuters) - AstraZeneca and the European Commission and have reached a settlement on the delivery of pending COVID-19 vaccine doses by the drugmaker, ending a row about shortages that had weighed on the company and the region's vaccination campaign.\nThe dispute plunged the European Union into crisis earlier this year as states, under pressure to speed up vaccinations, scrambled for shots. It also caused a public relations crisis for AstraZeneca, which is led by Frenchman Pascal Soriot.\nBrussels has since reduced its reliance on the Anglo-Swedish drugmaker, with vaccine supplies coming from Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson.\nUnder Friday's settlement\nAstraZeneca has committed to deliver 60 million doses of its vaccine, Vaxzevria, by the end of the third quarter this year, 75 million by the end of the fourth quarter and 65 million by the end of the first quarter of 2022.\nThe European Commission launched legal action against AstraZeneca in April\nfor not respecting its contract for the supply of COVID-19 vaccines and for not having a \"reliable\" plan to ensure timely deliveries.\nThe EU's executive body said\nthat under the new agreement, member states would be provided with regular delivery schedules and if there were any delayed doses, capped rebates would be applied.\nVACCINATION RATES\n\"There are significant differences in vaccination rates between our member states, and the continued availability of vaccines, including AstraZeneca's, remain crucial,\" said EU Commissioner for Health and Food Safety Stella Kyriakides.\nThe EU settlement allows for distribution while the highly-contagious Delta variant of the coronavirus is causing a spike in cases and vaccines are being studied for longevity of protection.\n\"I'm very pleased that we have been able to reach a common understanding which allows us to move forward and work in collaboration with the European Commission to help overcome the pandemic,\" said AstraZeneca senior executive Ruud Dobber.\nThe European Commission said this week that 70% of the European Union's adult population had been fully vaccinated against COVID-19, hitting a target it set at the beginning of the year.\nAbout 92 million doses of AstraZeneca's vaccine have been distributed to EU member states so far, according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. That is far below the 437 million doses delivered by Pfizer/BioNTech.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MRNA":0.9,"PFE":0.9,"JNJ":0.9,"AZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":604,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9031428781,"gmtCreate":1646649839781,"gmtModify":1676534146739,"author":{"id":"3586829232043276","authorId":"3586829232043276","name":"clingling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac8266443879ca0b9b00e68416a1244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586829232043276","authorIdStr":"3586829232043276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wah","listText":"Wah","text":"Wah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9031428781","repostId":"1138424041","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":884145387,"gmtCreate":1631872063649,"gmtModify":1676530657927,"author":{"id":"3586829232043276","authorId":"3586829232043276","name":"clingling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac8266443879ca0b9b00e68416a1244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586829232043276","authorIdStr":"3586829232043276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/884145387","repostId":"2168529607","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2168529607","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1631865945,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2168529607?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-17 16:05","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"ADVISORY-China markets closed for Mid-Autumn Festival","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2168529607","media":"Reuters","summary":"Mainland China's stock and bond markets, foreign exchange and commodity futures markets will be clos","content":"<p>Mainland China's stock and bond markets, foreign exchange and commodity futures markets will be closed through Sept. 21 for Mid-Autumn Festival.</p>\n<p>Markets will resume trade on Wednesday, Sept. 22.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Hong Kong's financial markets will be closed for the public holiday on Wednesday, Sept. 22.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ADVISORY-China markets closed for Mid-Autumn Festival</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nADVISORY-China markets closed for Mid-Autumn Festival\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-17 16:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Mainland China's stock and bond markets, foreign exchange and commodity futures markets will be closed through Sept. 21 for Mid-Autumn Festival.</p>\n<p>Markets will resume trade on Wednesday, Sept. 22.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Hong Kong's financial markets will be closed for the public holiday on Wednesday, Sept. 22.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数","HSI":"恒生指数"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2168529607","content_text":"Mainland China's stock and bond markets, foreign exchange and commodity futures markets will be closed through Sept. 21 for Mid-Autumn Festival.\nMarkets will resume trade on Wednesday, Sept. 22.\nMeanwhile, Hong Kong's financial markets will be closed for the public holiday on Wednesday, Sept. 22.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899093510,"gmtCreate":1628139830230,"gmtModify":1703501973109,"author":{"id":"3586829232043276","authorId":"3586829232043276","name":"clingling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac8266443879ca0b9b00e68416a1244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586829232043276","authorIdStr":"3586829232043276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899093510","repostId":"1177429885","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9901709497,"gmtCreate":1659258095119,"gmtModify":1676536278386,"author":{"id":"3586829232043276","authorId":"3586829232043276","name":"clingling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac8266443879ca0b9b00e68416a1244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586829232043276","authorIdStr":"3586829232043276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9901709497","repostId":"1165172007","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":455,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}