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2021-06-17

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2021-06-17

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2021-06-17

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2021-06-17

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The Federal Reserve "hawks" and the global market is tremendously shocked. What do all kinds of bosses think?

2021-06-16

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Morgan Stanley expects inflation expectations to have peaked. How should shrinking balance sheet vote when it approaches?

2021-06-16

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11:52","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The Federal Reserve \"hawks\" and the global market is tremendously shocked. What do all kinds of bosses think?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144719786","media":"格隆汇","summary":"万众瞩目的美联储议息会议终于落下帷幕。\n这次会议，决定将基准利率维持在0%到0.25%的目标区间不变，每月债券购买规模也保持在1200亿美元，符合市场预期，但同时也释放出鹰派信号，点阵图预测美联储20","content":"<p><h2>The much-anticipated interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve has finally come to an end.</h2>At this meeting, it was decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at the target range of 0% to 0.25%, and the monthly bond purchase scale was also kept at $120 billion, in line with market expectations, but at the same time, it also released a hawkish signal.<b>The dot plot predicts the Fed will rate hike at least twice by the end of 2023.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d551019d876fa3f2ff13ce09225b3fb\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"556\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although there is no rate hike, and the scale of bond purchases has not been reduced, the expected strengthening of rate hike in the future will still trigger a huge shock in the global market.</p><p>As soon as the news came out, the three major U.S. stock indexes all fell by more than 1% at one time. Powell's decline narrowed only after the press conference appeased the market again, and the yield of the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond broke through 1.5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31b15954f40f967417c3bae286c11a77\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The spot exchange rate index of the US dollar rose by 0.6%, once breaking 0.7% in the intraday session, the largest increase since January 27th, while the US Dollar Index rose straight above the 91 mark.</p><p>In August, the price of gold futures fell sharply by 1.2% to $1,834.20 per ounce, while the spot price plunged by 1.6% to $1,829.26 per ounce. The price of COMEX gold futures and WTI futures in the United States also fell.</p><p>Today, the Asia-Pacific market opened, and the Nikkei 225 index fell sharply by 1% at the opening, with obvious open low in the S&P indexes of South Korea, Singapore and Australia.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4577eed821bdce6f97241294d6c551d9\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"204\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, due to the first fall of the A-share Hong Kong stock market yesterday, anticipating the liquidity risk of the Federal Reserve's resolution in advance, the Growth Enterprise Market plunged by more than 4%, releasing an atmosphere of panic. Today, the A-share market rebounded after a slight open low. As of the publication, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.2%, and the Growth Enterprise Market rose by 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/774b02b14d915f99bc69469e7575c595\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"205\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>So, what do the big bosses of various institutions think of this meeting, which is called the most important interest rate meeting this year?</p><p><b>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a></b></p><p>Analyst Zach Pandl said: \"A tougher Fed view and a growing debate in the market about tapering bond purchases could be detrimental to dollar bears in the short term.\"</p><p><b>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK\">Bank of New York Mellon</a></b></p><p>Strategist John Velis said that Fed policymakers expect that more rate hike may push up real interest rates and strengthen the momentum of the US dollar's rally, at least in the short term. The dot plot shows a more hawkish rate hike path and a predictable short-term result of adjusting managed interest rates.</p><p><b>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a></b></p><p>George Saravelos, global head of foreign exchange research: The Federal Reserve is no longer a \"persistent dovish\" or \"sticking to its temporary inflation theory\". The support provided by the Federal Reserve for the upward trend of the euro against the dollar no longer exists, and it ends the trading proposal of long euro against the dollar.</p><p><b>4. Evercore ISI Investment</b></p><p>Dennis DeBusschere, head of portfolio strategy: \"U.S. large-cap stocks will be fine, but this shift from the Fed is not good for speculative tech stocks. This is interesting given the recent rise in these stocks, which also reduces the likelihood that the market will rise out of control.</p><p><b>Aberdeen Standard Investment</b></p><p>James McCann, Deputy Chief Economist: \"This exceeds market expectations. This change in position is not consistent with the Federal Reserve's recent statement that the rise in inflation is temporary. If the price fluctuation is temporary, there is no obvious reason to rate hike earlier than planned, especially in the recent disappointing performance of the labor market. In some people's eyes, this will of course signal that the Federal Open Market Committee's concerns about inflation are deepening.\"</p><p><b>6. Capital Economics</b></p><p>Paul Ashworth, Chief U.S. Economist: \"The Fed's insistence that inflation jumps 'roughly' reflects 'temporary factors', but officials have significantly raised their inflation forecasts for this year, and now the median forecast suggests that there will be two 25 basis point rate hike each in 2023. We had previously assumed that the Fed would be more willing to let inflation rise to ensure a 'broad and inclusive' recovery in the labor market – so expect only one 25 basis point rate hike. But we clearly misjudged the Fed's changing response mechanism and tolerance of inflation. \"</p><p><b>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601688\">Huatai Securities</a></b></p><p>The Fed acknowledged the possibility that the effect of supply bottlenecks is greater than expected, and inflation expectations may also be higher and more durable than the Fed expects, and said it will adjust its monetary policy stance if there are signs that inflation expectations are substantially and consistently exceeding expectations. This means that persistent inflation expectations may gradually shift from worry to reality, and the Fed's tolerance for inflation may not be as firm as before.</p><p><b>CICC</b></p><p>The meeting did not dramatically change the pace of the Fed's exit. The right time may still be at the end of the year or the fourth quarter. So why did the U.S. debt and dollar markets react so violently? It is mainly due to the market's reaction to the Fed's interest rate scatter chart suggesting that the pace of rate hike may be advanced, and some \"corrections\" to the pricing problem in the previous period. The Fed's judgment on inflation is still temporary and gradually fading.</p><p>9、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a></b></p><p>Why is there no word about cutting QE in anticipation of strong economic recovery? The Fed also needs to help the Treasury keep the cost of Treasury Bond issuance down; Taper signal needs to wait for Q3, and the real risk may be in the second half of the year. We expect: Q3 to cut QE; The Biden administration may intend to release the risk of U.S. stocks within the year.</p><p><b>From the point of view of these big bosses, they are roughly convergent, all of which confirm the hawkish signal of the Federal Reserve and also express the negative impact that the Fed's rate hike expectation will cause to the capital market.</b></p><p><b>As the anchor of liquidity in the global capital market, although Powell's motivation to protect the American capital market is still sufficient, under the realistic background of continuously high inflation, the Federal Reserve has actually been forced into a corner, and Powell doesn't have much choice. All he can do is keep dragging back, hoping that the economy, prices and employment can give more effort, so that he won't stay in the corner for too long and can calmly put down the knife of rate hike.</b></p>","source":"stock_gelonghui","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Federal Reserve \"hawks\" and the global market is tremendously shocked. 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What do all kinds of bosses think?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-17 11:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><h2>The much-anticipated interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve has finally come to an end.</h2>At this meeting, it was decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at the target range of 0% to 0.25%, and the monthly bond purchase scale was also kept at $120 billion, in line with market expectations, but at the same time, it also released a hawkish signal.<b>The dot plot predicts the Fed will rate hike at least twice by the end of 2023.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d551019d876fa3f2ff13ce09225b3fb\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"556\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although there is no rate hike, and the scale of bond purchases has not been reduced, the expected strengthening of rate hike in the future will still trigger a huge shock in the global market.</p><p>As soon as the news came out, the three major U.S. stock indexes all fell by more than 1% at one time. Powell's decline narrowed only after the press conference appeased the market again, and the yield of the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond broke through 1.5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31b15954f40f967417c3bae286c11a77\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The spot exchange rate index of the US dollar rose by 0.6%, once breaking 0.7% in the intraday session, the largest increase since January 27th, while the US Dollar Index rose straight above the 91 mark.</p><p>In August, the price of gold futures fell sharply by 1.2% to $1,834.20 per ounce, while the spot price plunged by 1.6% to $1,829.26 per ounce. The price of COMEX gold futures and WTI futures in the United States also fell.</p><p>Today, the Asia-Pacific market opened, and the Nikkei 225 index fell sharply by 1% at the opening, with obvious open low in the S&P indexes of South Korea, Singapore and Australia.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4577eed821bdce6f97241294d6c551d9\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"204\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, due to the first fall of the A-share Hong Kong stock market yesterday, anticipating the liquidity risk of the Federal Reserve's resolution in advance, the Growth Enterprise Market plunged by more than 4%, releasing an atmosphere of panic. Today, the A-share market rebounded after a slight open low. As of the publication, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.2%, and the Growth Enterprise Market rose by 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/774b02b14d915f99bc69469e7575c595\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"205\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>So, what do the big bosses of various institutions think of this meeting, which is called the most important interest rate meeting this year?</p><p><b>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a></b></p><p>Analyst Zach Pandl said: \"A tougher Fed view and a growing debate in the market about tapering bond purchases could be detrimental to dollar bears in the short term.\"</p><p><b>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK\">Bank of New York Mellon</a></b></p><p>Strategist John Velis said that Fed policymakers expect that more rate hike may push up real interest rates and strengthen the momentum of the US dollar's rally, at least in the short term. The dot plot shows a more hawkish rate hike path and a predictable short-term result of adjusting managed interest rates.</p><p><b>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a></b></p><p>George Saravelos, global head of foreign exchange research: The Federal Reserve is no longer a \"persistent dovish\" or \"sticking to its temporary inflation theory\". The support provided by the Federal Reserve for the upward trend of the euro against the dollar no longer exists, and it ends the trading proposal of long euro against the dollar.</p><p><b>4. Evercore ISI Investment</b></p><p>Dennis DeBusschere, head of portfolio strategy: \"U.S. large-cap stocks will be fine, but this shift from the Fed is not good for speculative tech stocks. This is interesting given the recent rise in these stocks, which also reduces the likelihood that the market will rise out of control.</p><p><b>Aberdeen Standard Investment</b></p><p>James McCann, Deputy Chief Economist: \"This exceeds market expectations. This change in position is not consistent with the Federal Reserve's recent statement that the rise in inflation is temporary. If the price fluctuation is temporary, there is no obvious reason to rate hike earlier than planned, especially in the recent disappointing performance of the labor market. In some people's eyes, this will of course signal that the Federal Open Market Committee's concerns about inflation are deepening.\"</p><p><b>6. Capital Economics</b></p><p>Paul Ashworth, Chief U.S. Economist: \"The Fed's insistence that inflation jumps 'roughly' reflects 'temporary factors', but officials have significantly raised their inflation forecasts for this year, and now the median forecast suggests that there will be two 25 basis point rate hike each in 2023. We had previously assumed that the Fed would be more willing to let inflation rise to ensure a 'broad and inclusive' recovery in the labor market – so expect only one 25 basis point rate hike. But we clearly misjudged the Fed's changing response mechanism and tolerance of inflation. \"</p><p><b>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601688\">Huatai Securities</a></b></p><p>The Fed acknowledged the possibility that the effect of supply bottlenecks is greater than expected, and inflation expectations may also be higher and more durable than the Fed expects, and said it will adjust its monetary policy stance if there are signs that inflation expectations are substantially and consistently exceeding expectations. This means that persistent inflation expectations may gradually shift from worry to reality, and the Fed's tolerance for inflation may not be as firm as before.</p><p><b>CICC</b></p><p>The meeting did not dramatically change the pace of the Fed's exit. The right time may still be at the end of the year or the fourth quarter. So why did the U.S. debt and dollar markets react so violently? It is mainly due to the market's reaction to the Fed's interest rate scatter chart suggesting that the pace of rate hike may be advanced, and some \"corrections\" to the pricing problem in the previous period. The Fed's judgment on inflation is still temporary and gradually fading.</p><p>9、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a></b></p><p>Why is there no word about cutting QE in anticipation of strong economic recovery? The Fed also needs to help the Treasury keep the cost of Treasury Bond issuance down; Taper signal needs to wait for Q3, and the real risk may be in the second half of the year. We expect: Q3 to cut QE; The Biden administration may intend to release the risk of U.S. stocks within the year.</p><p><b>From the point of view of these big bosses, they are roughly convergent, all of which confirm the hawkish signal of the Federal Reserve and also express the negative impact that the Fed's rate hike expectation will cause to the capital market.</b></p><p><b>As the anchor of liquidity in the global capital market, although Powell's motivation to protect the American capital market is still sufficient, under the realistic background of continuously high inflation, the Federal Reserve has actually been forced into a corner, and Powell doesn't have much choice. All he can do is keep dragging back, hoping that the economy, prices and employment can give more effort, so that he won't stay in the corner for too long and can calmly put down the knife of rate hike.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/470573\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0771f6361d74a78ebbf8c2fdc55c6b7","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","OEX":"标普100","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/470573","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144719786","content_text":"万众瞩目的美联储议息会议终于落下帷幕。\n这次会议，决定将基准利率维持在0%到0.25%的目标区间不变，每月债券购买规模也保持在1200亿美元，符合市场预期，但同时也释放出鹰派信号，点阵图预测美联储2023年底前将至少加息两次。\n\n虽然没有加息，也没有缩减购债规模，但未来要加息的预期加强还是引发全球市场巨震。\n消息一出，美股三大股指一度均跌逾1%，鲍威尔在新闻发布会再度安抚市场后跌幅才收窄，美国10年期国债收益率则冲破1.5%。\n\n美元即期汇率指数上涨0.6%，盘中一度破0.7%，为1月27日以来最大涨幅，美元指数则直线升破91关口。\n8月份黄金期货价格大幅下跌1.2%，至每盎司1834.20美元，现货价格则暴跌1.6%，至每盎司1829.26美元，美国COMEX黄金期货价格、WTI期货价格也都出现下跌。\n今日亚太市场开盘，日经225指数开盘急剧下跌1%，韩国、新加坡、澳洲标普指数等明显低开。\n\n但由于昨日A股港股市场先跌提前预期美联储决议的收流动性风险，创业板暴跌了超4%，释放了恐慌气氛。今日A股市场反而小幅低开后高走反弹，截至发文，沪指涨0.37%，深成指上涨1.2%，创业板大涨反弹2%。\n\n那么，对于这次被称为本年度最重要的议息会议，各家机构大佬又如何看待？\n1、高盛\n分析师Zach Pandl表示：“美联储观点更加强硬，以及市场上越来越多有关购债缩减的争论，短期内可能不利于美元空头。”\n2、纽约梅隆银行\n策略师John Velis表示，美联储决策者预期加息次数增多可能会推升实际利率，增强美元涨势的动力，至少在短期内会如此，点阵图显示的加息路径更加鹰派，以及调整管理利率的一个可预见的短期结果。\n3、德意志银行\n外汇研究全球主管George Saravelos：美联储不再是“持久鸽派”，也不“坚持它的临时性通胀说”，美联储为欧元兑美元上行提供的支撑已不复存在，结束做多欧元兑美元的交易建议。\n4、Evercore ISI投资\n组合策略主管Dennis DeBusschere：“美股大盘股不会有事，但美联储的这种转变不利于投机性科技股。鉴于最近这些股票上涨，这件事很有趣，这也降低了市场涨到失控的可能性。\n5、安本标准投资\n副首席经济学家James McCann：“这超出了市场预期。这个立场转变跟美联储最近说通胀上升是暂时的并不一致。如果价格波动是暂时的，没有明显理由需要比计划更早加息，尤其是在最近劳动力市场表现让人失望的情况下。在一些人看来，这当然会释放出联邦公开市场委员会对通胀的担忧加深的信号。”\n6、凯投宏观\n首席美国经济学家Paul Ashworth：“美联储坚持通胀蹿升‘大致’反映了‘暂时性因素’的说法，但官员们大幅上调了今年通胀率预测，而且现在预测中值显示2023年将有两次各25基点的加息。我们之前假设美联储会更愿意让通胀上升，以确保劳动力市场‘广泛而包容性’复苏——因此预期只有一次25个基点的加息。但我们显然误判了美联储不断变化的反应机制和对通胀的容忍。”\n7、华泰证券\n美联储承认了供给瓶颈的效应比预期更大的可能性，通胀预期也可能比美联储的预期更高且更持久，并表示如果有迹象表明通胀预期正在实质性并且持续地超出预期，将会调整货币政策立场。这意味着持续的通胀预期也可能逐渐由担忧转向现实，美联储对通胀的容忍度可能没之前表现地那么坚定。\n8、中金\n此次会议并没有大幅改变了美联储的退出节奏。合适时间依然可能是在年底或者四季度。那么美债和美元市场为何反应如此剧烈？主要是市场对于美联储利率散点图暗示加息节奏可能提前的反应，以及对于前期定价问题的部分「纠正」。美联储对于通胀的判断依然是暂时性且逐步消退。\n9、广发证券\n预期经济强劲回升为何只字不提削减QE？美联储还需帮助财政部压低国债发行成本；Taper信号需待Q3，真正的风险或在下半年，我们预计：Q3削减QE；拜登政府或有意在年内释放美股风险。\n从这些大佬的观点上，大致趋同，都确认了美联储鹰派信号，也表达了美联储的加息预期将给资本市场造成的利空。\n作为全球资本市场流动性之锚，尽管鲍威尔呵护美国资本市场的动机还充足，但在通胀持续高企的现实背景下，美联储其实已经被逼入墙角，鲍威尔也没有太多的选择余地，能够做的只是不断往后拖，希望经济、物价、就业能够多给点力，让他不至于在墙角呆太久，能够从容地放下加息这把刀。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SH":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160528305,"gmtCreate":1623802473207,"gmtModify":1703819737301,"author":{"id":"3585184527329429","authorId":"3585184527329429","name":"Hyunra","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585184527329429","idStr":"3585184527329429"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"。。","listText":"。。","text":"。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160528305","repostId":"1134804844","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134804844","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623770805,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134804844?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 23:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Morgan Stanley expects inflation expectations to have peaked. How should shrinking balance sheet vote when it approaches?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134804844","media":"第一财经","summary":"年初从成长到周期的轮动速度开始放缓，机构认为这一时期更应该均衡配置。\n\n为何美国通胀数据创下13年新高仍未动摇投资者情绪？美债收益率为何不涨反跌？紧缩周期临近应该怎么投？这些都是盘桓在近期投资者心中的","content":"<p><div>At the beginning of the year, the rotation speed from growth to cycle began to slow down, and institutions believe that this period should be balanced. Why U.S. inflation data hits a 13-year high and still hasn't shaken investor sentiment? Why did U.S. bond yields fall instead of rising? How should I vote when the tightening cycle approaches? These are the huge questions lingering in the minds of recent investors. Morgan Stanley's latest statement is that growth and inflation are expected to remain quite strong next year. However, the first quarter of the year experienced unusually strong demand, which may signal that the rising rate of growth and inflation has peaked. The U.S. market seems to agree with this, and bond yields have thus peaked back,...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101082673.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley expects inflation expectations to have peaked. How should shrinking balance sheet vote when it approaches?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley expects inflation expectations to have peaked. How should shrinking balance sheet vote when it approaches?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 23:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>At the beginning of the year, the rotation speed from growth to cycle began to slow down, and institutions believe that this period should be balanced. Why U.S. inflation data hits a 13-year high and still hasn't shaken investor sentiment? Why did U.S. bond yields fall instead of rising? How should I vote when the tightening cycle approaches? These are the huge questions lingering in the minds of recent investors. Morgan Stanley's latest statement is that growth and inflation are expected to remain quite strong next year. However, the first quarter of the year experienced unusually strong demand, which may signal that the rising rate of growth and inflation has peaked. The U.S. market seems to agree with this, and bond yields have thus peaked back,...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101082673.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101082673.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c318bcd91a109139b7d70c76c30bb154","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101082673.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134804844","content_text":"年初从成长到周期的轮动速度开始放缓，机构认为这一时期更应该均衡配置。\n\n为何美国通胀数据创下13年新高仍未动摇投资者情绪？美债收益率为何不涨反跌？紧缩周期临近应该怎么投？这些都是盘桓在近期投资者心中的巨大疑问。\n摩根士丹利最新表示，明年经济增长和通胀预计仍将相当强劲。然而，今年第一季度经历了异常旺盛的需求，可能标志着增长和通胀的上升速率已达峰值。美国市场似乎也认同这一点，债券收益率因此触顶回落，一些周期性较强的股票也出现盘整。在一季度盈利大幅上修后，大摩现在认为未来继续上修的空间有限，毕竟一季度发生的一些事情未来不太会重复——经济重启叠加巨大的财政刺激带动了消费，加密市场泡沫也强化了财富效应。\n市场预计，本周举行的美联储议息会议将开始讨论缩减买债规模的问题。随着紧缩周期不断临近，投资策略也不同于早周期，盈利增速将成主要驱动力。年初从成长到周期的轮动速度开始放缓，机构认为这一时期更应该均衡配置。\n通胀预期可能触顶\n数据显示，美国5月整体CPI同比大涨5%，超过预期的4.7%，增速创2008年8月以来最高；剔除不稳定的食品与能源价格的核心CPI年率达3.8%，同样超过市场预期的3.5%，增速创1992年以来新高。\n\n美国整体通胀率。来源：Wind，美国劳工部\n然而，在6月10日上述数据发布后，10年期美债收益率不涨反跌，收盘仅报1.454%。美股也照涨不误，标普500指数上周五收于4247.44点，距离突破历史新高的4249.74点仅一步之遥。\n大摩认为，这背后的原因可能在于，通胀预期或已经近乎见顶。\n摩根士丹利首席美股策略师威尔逊（Michael J Wilson）对记者表示，通胀保值债券（TIPS）市场此前已变得非常拥挤，特别是在零售市场，因此无论通胀数据结果如何，回调的时机已经成熟；盈亏平衡通胀率已经反映了市场对通胀的乐观预期，达到10年高点；此外，企业和消费者调查都表明，他们对通胀的预期发生了变化，认为通胀是更持续性的而非间歇性的，这一点很重要，因为预期可以导致行为变化。\n“尽管所有这些指标都大幅走高，但它们似乎也已见顶，10年期国债名义收益率和盈亏平衡收益率已触顶回落。这可能是一个早期信号，表明后续经济增长和通胀都可能不及目前过高的预期。”威尔逊称。\n影响这一预期的关键仍和需求水平有关。一季度高达1.9万亿美元的财政刺激拉动了消费，叠加加密货币扩张又带来了近1万亿美元的财富效应。但机构认为，这两种情况都不太可能在二、三季度重演，这也会逐步体现在经济增速和通胀数据上。\n从名义利率拆解来看，2月中旬之前，美债收益率快速攀升主要受通胀预期回升驱动。疫情后美国经济加速复苏，叠加拜登政府推岀的一轮轮大规模财政刺激，通胀预期不断升温，彼时实际利率受疫情反复等因素的影响持续磨底。\n在突破1.3%后，通胀预期趋于缓和，实际利率替代通胀预期成为推动美债收益率快速上行的核心因素，这也意味着彼时市场的关注点更多落在经济数据的改善上。近期美债收益率的下行，更多则源于通胀预期和实际利率的同步走弱。隐含通胀预期从5月峰值下降近19BP，与CPI连续两个月的大幅上涨形成了鲜明对比。显然，美联储官员以及美国财长耶伦关于“通胀上升是暂时的”的说法终于让市场开始买账了，投资者开始相信，供给短缺造成的涨价将会缓解，且服务性需求的攀升也不可能一直持续下去。\n\n另一些因素可能也在推动收益率下行。景顺首席全球市场策略师Kristina Hooper对记者表示，债市正在对某些国家的新冠肺炎疫情未能受控的担忧做出反应，尤其是在更令人担忧的Delta变异病毒株迅速传播的情况下，这可能会抑制经济增长。Delta变异病毒株占英国新病例的90%，并且很可能成为美国的主要毒株；此外，美国以外的投资者仍被美国国债所吸引，特别是考虑到欧元区的利率非常低。上周的一个催化剂是美元走软，这刺激了外国购买美国政府债券。\n紧缩周期前夕应均衡配置\n不过，通胀预期触顶并不代表通胀会很快下行，更不代表全球央行尤其是美联储永远不“收水”。\nKristina Hooper预计，本周举行的美联储议息会议将开始讨论缩减买债规模的问题，可能会在夏末的杰克逊·霍尔会议（Jackson Hole）上宣布缩表时间点，并于秋季开始实行。但市场可能还没有准备好接受这个消息，预计美债收益率可能在下半年上升。\n历史数据也显示，即使在经济增长动能见顶放缓、流动性边际收紧的时期，股市表现仍可能保持良好，盈利增长是驱动股价攀升的关键。当然回报往往会弱于经济强劲增长的时期。在行业配置上，比起在上一个阶段侧重于顺周期板块的配置，在当前的中周期，行业配置就需要在长期可持续成长和顺周期板块中求取平衡。\n年初以来，从成长到价值的板块轮动加速。但事实上，5月以来，早周期板块相较于标普500的表现已明显触顶回落，这也和美债收益率触顶回落的时间点吻合。\n\n大摩认为，在成长（growth）和价值/周期性行业（value）之间，后疫情时代的每股收益驱动因素将更加均衡，消费者服务、运输、能源和资本物品等板块预计将成为价值/周期板块的重要增长驱动力，这和过去两年有较大不同，当时每股收益增长主要集中在科技和通信服务。\n未来，更高的利润率预期主要是由科技、互联网和制药行业推动的。就不同板块对整体营业利润的贡献来看，科技公司仍占主导。具体而言，传媒和娱乐行业(以谷歌和脸书主导）的利润增长几乎占预期利润增长的四分之一，软件/服务占17%，零售服务占16%（其中亚马逊一家公司就贡献了近三分之二），半导体占12%，科技硬件占10%，制药占11%。\n之所以这一时期要均衡配置，也是因为从绝对角度看，大摩认为预期利润率涨幅最大的是科技股和一些周期性行业，部分周期性行业在经历了上半年的大涨后，后续行情仍有望延续，包括汽车、耐用消费品/服装、多元金融(资管公司、投行、经纪公司)、能源和材料等。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160521292,"gmtCreate":1623802449316,"gmtModify":1703819736489,"author":{"id":"3585184527329429","authorId":"3585184527329429","name":"Hyunra","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585184527329429","idStr":"3585184527329429"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"。。","listText":"。。","text":"。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160521292","repostId":"2143750481","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3602,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160563519,"gmtCreate":1623802223731,"gmtModify":1703819721925,"author":{"id":"3585184527329429","authorId":"3585184527329429","name":"Hyunra","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585184527329429","idStr":"3585184527329429"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"。。","listText":"。。","text":"。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160563519","repostId":"1199368394","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4404,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":160563519,"gmtCreate":1623802223731,"gmtModify":1703819721925,"author":{"id":"3585184527329429","authorId":"3585184527329429","name":"Hyunra","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585184527329429","authorIdStr":"3585184527329429"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"。。","listText":"。。","text":"。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160563519","repostId":"1199368394","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4404,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161391633,"gmtCreate":1623903813122,"gmtModify":1703823127121,"author":{"id":"3585184527329429","authorId":"3585184527329429","name":"Hyunra","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585184527329429","authorIdStr":"3585184527329429"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"。。。","listText":"。。。","text":"。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/161391633","repostId":"1118656593","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3049,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161391981,"gmtCreate":1623903776443,"gmtModify":1703823126475,"author":{"id":"3585184527329429","authorId":"3585184527329429","name":"Hyunra","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585184527329429","authorIdStr":"3585184527329429"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"。。。","listText":"。。。","text":"。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/161391981","repostId":"2144843711","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2980,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161390747,"gmtCreate":1623903670389,"gmtModify":1703823123701,"author":{"id":"3585184527329429","authorId":"3585184527329429","name":"Hyunra","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585184527329429","authorIdStr":"3585184527329429"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"。。","listText":"。。","text":"。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/161390747","repostId":"2144711488","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161307707,"gmtCreate":1623903632309,"gmtModify":1703823122226,"author":{"id":"3585184527329429","authorId":"3585184527329429","name":"Hyunra","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585184527329429","authorIdStr":"3585184527329429"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"。。","listText":"。。","text":"。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/161307707","repostId":"2144719786","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144719786","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623901955,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144719786?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 11:52","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The Federal Reserve \"hawks\" and the global market is tremendously shocked. What do all kinds of bosses think?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144719786","media":"格隆汇","summary":"万众瞩目的美联储议息会议终于落下帷幕。\n这次会议，决定将基准利率维持在0%到0.25%的目标区间不变，每月债券购买规模也保持在1200亿美元，符合市场预期，但同时也释放出鹰派信号，点阵图预测美联储20","content":"<p><h2>The much-anticipated interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve has finally come to an end.</h2>At this meeting, it was decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at the target range of 0% to 0.25%, and the monthly bond purchase scale was also kept at $120 billion, in line with market expectations, but at the same time, it also released a hawkish signal.<b>The dot plot predicts the Fed will rate hike at least twice by the end of 2023.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d551019d876fa3f2ff13ce09225b3fb\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"556\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although there is no rate hike, and the scale of bond purchases has not been reduced, the expected strengthening of rate hike in the future will still trigger a huge shock in the global market.</p><p>As soon as the news came out, the three major U.S. stock indexes all fell by more than 1% at one time. Powell's decline narrowed only after the press conference appeased the market again, and the yield of the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond broke through 1.5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31b15954f40f967417c3bae286c11a77\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The spot exchange rate index of the US dollar rose by 0.6%, once breaking 0.7% in the intraday session, the largest increase since January 27th, while the US Dollar Index rose straight above the 91 mark.</p><p>In August, the price of gold futures fell sharply by 1.2% to $1,834.20 per ounce, while the spot price plunged by 1.6% to $1,829.26 per ounce. The price of COMEX gold futures and WTI futures in the United States also fell.</p><p>Today, the Asia-Pacific market opened, and the Nikkei 225 index fell sharply by 1% at the opening, with obvious open low in the S&P indexes of South Korea, Singapore and Australia.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4577eed821bdce6f97241294d6c551d9\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"204\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, due to the first fall of the A-share Hong Kong stock market yesterday, anticipating the liquidity risk of the Federal Reserve's resolution in advance, the Growth Enterprise Market plunged by more than 4%, releasing an atmosphere of panic. Today, the A-share market rebounded after a slight open low. As of the publication, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.2%, and the Growth Enterprise Market rose by 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/774b02b14d915f99bc69469e7575c595\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"205\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>So, what do the big bosses of various institutions think of this meeting, which is called the most important interest rate meeting this year?</p><p><b>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a></b></p><p>Analyst Zach Pandl said: \"A tougher Fed view and a growing debate in the market about tapering bond purchases could be detrimental to dollar bears in the short term.\"</p><p><b>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK\">Bank of New York Mellon</a></b></p><p>Strategist John Velis said that Fed policymakers expect that more rate hike may push up real interest rates and strengthen the momentum of the US dollar's rally, at least in the short term. The dot plot shows a more hawkish rate hike path and a predictable short-term result of adjusting managed interest rates.</p><p><b>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a></b></p><p>George Saravelos, global head of foreign exchange research: The Federal Reserve is no longer a \"persistent dovish\" or \"sticking to its temporary inflation theory\". The support provided by the Federal Reserve for the upward trend of the euro against the dollar no longer exists, and it ends the trading proposal of long euro against the dollar.</p><p><b>4. Evercore ISI Investment</b></p><p>Dennis DeBusschere, head of portfolio strategy: \"U.S. large-cap stocks will be fine, but this shift from the Fed is not good for speculative tech stocks. This is interesting given the recent rise in these stocks, which also reduces the likelihood that the market will rise out of control.</p><p><b>Aberdeen Standard Investment</b></p><p>James McCann, Deputy Chief Economist: \"This exceeds market expectations. This change in position is not consistent with the Federal Reserve's recent statement that the rise in inflation is temporary. If the price fluctuation is temporary, there is no obvious reason to rate hike earlier than planned, especially in the recent disappointing performance of the labor market. In some people's eyes, this will of course signal that the Federal Open Market Committee's concerns about inflation are deepening.\"</p><p><b>6. Capital Economics</b></p><p>Paul Ashworth, Chief U.S. Economist: \"The Fed's insistence that inflation jumps 'roughly' reflects 'temporary factors', but officials have significantly raised their inflation forecasts for this year, and now the median forecast suggests that there will be two 25 basis point rate hike each in 2023. We had previously assumed that the Fed would be more willing to let inflation rise to ensure a 'broad and inclusive' recovery in the labor market – so expect only one 25 basis point rate hike. But we clearly misjudged the Fed's changing response mechanism and tolerance of inflation. \"</p><p><b>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601688\">Huatai Securities</a></b></p><p>The Fed acknowledged the possibility that the effect of supply bottlenecks is greater than expected, and inflation expectations may also be higher and more durable than the Fed expects, and said it will adjust its monetary policy stance if there are signs that inflation expectations are substantially and consistently exceeding expectations. This means that persistent inflation expectations may gradually shift from worry to reality, and the Fed's tolerance for inflation may not be as firm as before.</p><p><b>CICC</b></p><p>The meeting did not dramatically change the pace of the Fed's exit. The right time may still be at the end of the year or the fourth quarter. So why did the U.S. debt and dollar markets react so violently? It is mainly due to the market's reaction to the Fed's interest rate scatter chart suggesting that the pace of rate hike may be advanced, and some \"corrections\" to the pricing problem in the previous period. The Fed's judgment on inflation is still temporary and gradually fading.</p><p>9、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a></b></p><p>Why is there no word about cutting QE in anticipation of strong economic recovery? The Fed also needs to help the Treasury keep the cost of Treasury Bond issuance down; Taper signal needs to wait for Q3, and the real risk may be in the second half of the year. We expect: Q3 to cut QE; The Biden administration may intend to release the risk of U.S. stocks within the year.</p><p><b>From the point of view of these big bosses, they are roughly convergent, all of which confirm the hawkish signal of the Federal Reserve and also express the negative impact that the Fed's rate hike expectation will cause to the capital market.</b></p><p><b>As the anchor of liquidity in the global capital market, although Powell's motivation to protect the American capital market is still sufficient, under the realistic background of continuously high inflation, the Federal Reserve has actually been forced into a corner, and Powell doesn't have much choice. All he can do is keep dragging back, hoping that the economy, prices and employment can give more effort, so that he won't stay in the corner for too long and can calmly put down the knife of rate hike.</b></p>","source":"stock_gelonghui","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Federal Reserve \"hawks\" and the global market is tremendously shocked. What do all kinds of bosses think?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Federal Reserve \"hawks\" and the global market is tremendously shocked. What do all kinds of bosses think?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-17 11:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><h2>The much-anticipated interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve has finally come to an end.</h2>At this meeting, it was decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at the target range of 0% to 0.25%, and the monthly bond purchase scale was also kept at $120 billion, in line with market expectations, but at the same time, it also released a hawkish signal.<b>The dot plot predicts the Fed will rate hike at least twice by the end of 2023.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d551019d876fa3f2ff13ce09225b3fb\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"556\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although there is no rate hike, and the scale of bond purchases has not been reduced, the expected strengthening of rate hike in the future will still trigger a huge shock in the global market.</p><p>As soon as the news came out, the three major U.S. stock indexes all fell by more than 1% at one time. Powell's decline narrowed only after the press conference appeased the market again, and the yield of the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond broke through 1.5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31b15954f40f967417c3bae286c11a77\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The spot exchange rate index of the US dollar rose by 0.6%, once breaking 0.7% in the intraday session, the largest increase since January 27th, while the US Dollar Index rose straight above the 91 mark.</p><p>In August, the price of gold futures fell sharply by 1.2% to $1,834.20 per ounce, while the spot price plunged by 1.6% to $1,829.26 per ounce. The price of COMEX gold futures and WTI futures in the United States also fell.</p><p>Today, the Asia-Pacific market opened, and the Nikkei 225 index fell sharply by 1% at the opening, with obvious open low in the S&P indexes of South Korea, Singapore and Australia.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4577eed821bdce6f97241294d6c551d9\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"204\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, due to the first fall of the A-share Hong Kong stock market yesterday, anticipating the liquidity risk of the Federal Reserve's resolution in advance, the Growth Enterprise Market plunged by more than 4%, releasing an atmosphere of panic. Today, the A-share market rebounded after a slight open low. As of the publication, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.2%, and the Growth Enterprise Market rose by 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/774b02b14d915f99bc69469e7575c595\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"205\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>So, what do the big bosses of various institutions think of this meeting, which is called the most important interest rate meeting this year?</p><p><b>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a></b></p><p>Analyst Zach Pandl said: \"A tougher Fed view and a growing debate in the market about tapering bond purchases could be detrimental to dollar bears in the short term.\"</p><p><b>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK\">Bank of New York Mellon</a></b></p><p>Strategist John Velis said that Fed policymakers expect that more rate hike may push up real interest rates and strengthen the momentum of the US dollar's rally, at least in the short term. The dot plot shows a more hawkish rate hike path and a predictable short-term result of adjusting managed interest rates.</p><p><b>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a></b></p><p>George Saravelos, global head of foreign exchange research: The Federal Reserve is no longer a \"persistent dovish\" or \"sticking to its temporary inflation theory\". The support provided by the Federal Reserve for the upward trend of the euro against the dollar no longer exists, and it ends the trading proposal of long euro against the dollar.</p><p><b>4. Evercore ISI Investment</b></p><p>Dennis DeBusschere, head of portfolio strategy: \"U.S. large-cap stocks will be fine, but this shift from the Fed is not good for speculative tech stocks. This is interesting given the recent rise in these stocks, which also reduces the likelihood that the market will rise out of control.</p><p><b>Aberdeen Standard Investment</b></p><p>James McCann, Deputy Chief Economist: \"This exceeds market expectations. This change in position is not consistent with the Federal Reserve's recent statement that the rise in inflation is temporary. If the price fluctuation is temporary, there is no obvious reason to rate hike earlier than planned, especially in the recent disappointing performance of the labor market. In some people's eyes, this will of course signal that the Federal Open Market Committee's concerns about inflation are deepening.\"</p><p><b>6. Capital Economics</b></p><p>Paul Ashworth, Chief U.S. Economist: \"The Fed's insistence that inflation jumps 'roughly' reflects 'temporary factors', but officials have significantly raised their inflation forecasts for this year, and now the median forecast suggests that there will be two 25 basis point rate hike each in 2023. We had previously assumed that the Fed would be more willing to let inflation rise to ensure a 'broad and inclusive' recovery in the labor market – so expect only one 25 basis point rate hike. But we clearly misjudged the Fed's changing response mechanism and tolerance of inflation. \"</p><p><b>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601688\">Huatai Securities</a></b></p><p>The Fed acknowledged the possibility that the effect of supply bottlenecks is greater than expected, and inflation expectations may also be higher and more durable than the Fed expects, and said it will adjust its monetary policy stance if there are signs that inflation expectations are substantially and consistently exceeding expectations. This means that persistent inflation expectations may gradually shift from worry to reality, and the Fed's tolerance for inflation may not be as firm as before.</p><p><b>CICC</b></p><p>The meeting did not dramatically change the pace of the Fed's exit. The right time may still be at the end of the year or the fourth quarter. So why did the U.S. debt and dollar markets react so violently? It is mainly due to the market's reaction to the Fed's interest rate scatter chart suggesting that the pace of rate hike may be advanced, and some \"corrections\" to the pricing problem in the previous period. The Fed's judgment on inflation is still temporary and gradually fading.</p><p>9、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a></b></p><p>Why is there no word about cutting QE in anticipation of strong economic recovery? The Fed also needs to help the Treasury keep the cost of Treasury Bond issuance down; Taper signal needs to wait for Q3, and the real risk may be in the second half of the year. We expect: Q3 to cut QE; The Biden administration may intend to release the risk of U.S. stocks within the year.</p><p><b>From the point of view of these big bosses, they are roughly convergent, all of which confirm the hawkish signal of the Federal Reserve and also express the negative impact that the Fed's rate hike expectation will cause to the capital market.</b></p><p><b>As the anchor of liquidity in the global capital market, although Powell's motivation to protect the American capital market is still sufficient, under the realistic background of continuously high inflation, the Federal Reserve has actually been forced into a corner, and Powell doesn't have much choice. All he can do is keep dragging back, hoping that the economy, prices and employment can give more effort, so that he won't stay in the corner for too long and can calmly put down the knife of rate hike.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/470573\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0771f6361d74a78ebbf8c2fdc55c6b7","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","OEX":"标普100","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/470573","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144719786","content_text":"万众瞩目的美联储议息会议终于落下帷幕。\n这次会议，决定将基准利率维持在0%到0.25%的目标区间不变，每月债券购买规模也保持在1200亿美元，符合市场预期，但同时也释放出鹰派信号，点阵图预测美联储2023年底前将至少加息两次。\n\n虽然没有加息，也没有缩减购债规模，但未来要加息的预期加强还是引发全球市场巨震。\n消息一出，美股三大股指一度均跌逾1%，鲍威尔在新闻发布会再度安抚市场后跌幅才收窄，美国10年期国债收益率则冲破1.5%。\n\n美元即期汇率指数上涨0.6%，盘中一度破0.7%，为1月27日以来最大涨幅，美元指数则直线升破91关口。\n8月份黄金期货价格大幅下跌1.2%，至每盎司1834.20美元，现货价格则暴跌1.6%，至每盎司1829.26美元，美国COMEX黄金期货价格、WTI期货价格也都出现下跌。\n今日亚太市场开盘，日经225指数开盘急剧下跌1%，韩国、新加坡、澳洲标普指数等明显低开。\n\n但由于昨日A股港股市场先跌提前预期美联储决议的收流动性风险，创业板暴跌了超4%，释放了恐慌气氛。今日A股市场反而小幅低开后高走反弹，截至发文，沪指涨0.37%，深成指上涨1.2%，创业板大涨反弹2%。\n\n那么，对于这次被称为本年度最重要的议息会议，各家机构大佬又如何看待？\n1、高盛\n分析师Zach Pandl表示：“美联储观点更加强硬，以及市场上越来越多有关购债缩减的争论，短期内可能不利于美元空头。”\n2、纽约梅隆银行\n策略师John Velis表示，美联储决策者预期加息次数增多可能会推升实际利率，增强美元涨势的动力，至少在短期内会如此，点阵图显示的加息路径更加鹰派，以及调整管理利率的一个可预见的短期结果。\n3、德意志银行\n外汇研究全球主管George Saravelos：美联储不再是“持久鸽派”，也不“坚持它的临时性通胀说”，美联储为欧元兑美元上行提供的支撑已不复存在，结束做多欧元兑美元的交易建议。\n4、Evercore ISI投资\n组合策略主管Dennis DeBusschere：“美股大盘股不会有事，但美联储的这种转变不利于投机性科技股。鉴于最近这些股票上涨，这件事很有趣，这也降低了市场涨到失控的可能性。\n5、安本标准投资\n副首席经济学家James McCann：“这超出了市场预期。这个立场转变跟美联储最近说通胀上升是暂时的并不一致。如果价格波动是暂时的，没有明显理由需要比计划更早加息，尤其是在最近劳动力市场表现让人失望的情况下。在一些人看来，这当然会释放出联邦公开市场委员会对通胀的担忧加深的信号。”\n6、凯投宏观\n首席美国经济学家Paul Ashworth：“美联储坚持通胀蹿升‘大致’反映了‘暂时性因素’的说法，但官员们大幅上调了今年通胀率预测，而且现在预测中值显示2023年将有两次各25基点的加息。我们之前假设美联储会更愿意让通胀上升，以确保劳动力市场‘广泛而包容性’复苏——因此预期只有一次25个基点的加息。但我们显然误判了美联储不断变化的反应机制和对通胀的容忍。”\n7、华泰证券\n美联储承认了供给瓶颈的效应比预期更大的可能性，通胀预期也可能比美联储的预期更高且更持久，并表示如果有迹象表明通胀预期正在实质性并且持续地超出预期，将会调整货币政策立场。这意味着持续的通胀预期也可能逐渐由担忧转向现实，美联储对通胀的容忍度可能没之前表现地那么坚定。\n8、中金\n此次会议并没有大幅改变了美联储的退出节奏。合适时间依然可能是在年底或者四季度。那么美债和美元市场为何反应如此剧烈？主要是市场对于美联储利率散点图暗示加息节奏可能提前的反应，以及对于前期定价问题的部分「纠正」。美联储对于通胀的判断依然是暂时性且逐步消退。\n9、广发证券\n预期经济强劲回升为何只字不提削减QE？美联储还需帮助财政部压低国债发行成本；Taper信号需待Q3，真正的风险或在下半年，我们预计：Q3削减QE；拜登政府或有意在年内释放美股风险。\n从这些大佬的观点上，大致趋同，都确认了美联储鹰派信号，也表达了美联储的加息预期将给资本市场造成的利空。\n作为全球资本市场流动性之锚，尽管鲍威尔呵护美国资本市场的动机还充足，但在通胀持续高企的现实背景下，美联储其实已经被逼入墙角，鲍威尔也没有太多的选择余地，能够做的只是不断往后拖，希望经济、物价、就业能够多给点力，让他不至于在墙角呆太久，能够从容地放下加息这把刀。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SH":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160528305,"gmtCreate":1623802473207,"gmtModify":1703819737301,"author":{"id":"3585184527329429","authorId":"3585184527329429","name":"Hyunra","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585184527329429","authorIdStr":"3585184527329429"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"。。","listText":"。。","text":"。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160528305","repostId":"1134804844","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134804844","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623770805,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134804844?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 23:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Morgan Stanley expects inflation expectations to have peaked. How should shrinking balance sheet vote when it approaches?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134804844","media":"第一财经","summary":"年初从成长到周期的轮动速度开始放缓，机构认为这一时期更应该均衡配置。\n\n为何美国通胀数据创下13年新高仍未动摇投资者情绪？美债收益率为何不涨反跌？紧缩周期临近应该怎么投？这些都是盘桓在近期投资者心中的","content":"<p><div>At the beginning of the year, the rotation speed from growth to cycle began to slow down, and institutions believe that this period should be balanced. Why U.S. inflation data hits a 13-year high and still hasn't shaken investor sentiment? Why did U.S. bond yields fall instead of rising? How should I vote when the tightening cycle approaches? These are the huge questions lingering in the minds of recent investors. Morgan Stanley's latest statement is that growth and inflation are expected to remain quite strong next year. However, the first quarter of the year experienced unusually strong demand, which may signal that the rising rate of growth and inflation has peaked. The U.S. market seems to agree with this, and bond yields have thus peaked back,...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101082673.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley expects inflation expectations to have peaked. How should shrinking balance sheet vote when it approaches?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley expects inflation expectations to have peaked. How should shrinking balance sheet vote when it approaches?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 23:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>At the beginning of the year, the rotation speed from growth to cycle began to slow down, and institutions believe that this period should be balanced. Why U.S. inflation data hits a 13-year high and still hasn't shaken investor sentiment? Why did U.S. bond yields fall instead of rising? How should I vote when the tightening cycle approaches? These are the huge questions lingering in the minds of recent investors. Morgan Stanley's latest statement is that growth and inflation are expected to remain quite strong next year. However, the first quarter of the year experienced unusually strong demand, which may signal that the rising rate of growth and inflation has peaked. The U.S. market seems to agree with this, and bond yields have thus peaked back,...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101082673.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101082673.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c318bcd91a109139b7d70c76c30bb154","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101082673.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134804844","content_text":"年初从成长到周期的轮动速度开始放缓，机构认为这一时期更应该均衡配置。\n\n为何美国通胀数据创下13年新高仍未动摇投资者情绪？美债收益率为何不涨反跌？紧缩周期临近应该怎么投？这些都是盘桓在近期投资者心中的巨大疑问。\n摩根士丹利最新表示，明年经济增长和通胀预计仍将相当强劲。然而，今年第一季度经历了异常旺盛的需求，可能标志着增长和通胀的上升速率已达峰值。美国市场似乎也认同这一点，债券收益率因此触顶回落，一些周期性较强的股票也出现盘整。在一季度盈利大幅上修后，大摩现在认为未来继续上修的空间有限，毕竟一季度发生的一些事情未来不太会重复——经济重启叠加巨大的财政刺激带动了消费，加密市场泡沫也强化了财富效应。\n市场预计，本周举行的美联储议息会议将开始讨论缩减买债规模的问题。随着紧缩周期不断临近，投资策略也不同于早周期，盈利增速将成主要驱动力。年初从成长到周期的轮动速度开始放缓，机构认为这一时期更应该均衡配置。\n通胀预期可能触顶\n数据显示，美国5月整体CPI同比大涨5%，超过预期的4.7%，增速创2008年8月以来最高；剔除不稳定的食品与能源价格的核心CPI年率达3.8%，同样超过市场预期的3.5%，增速创1992年以来新高。\n\n美国整体通胀率。来源：Wind，美国劳工部\n然而，在6月10日上述数据发布后，10年期美债收益率不涨反跌，收盘仅报1.454%。美股也照涨不误，标普500指数上周五收于4247.44点，距离突破历史新高的4249.74点仅一步之遥。\n大摩认为，这背后的原因可能在于，通胀预期或已经近乎见顶。\n摩根士丹利首席美股策略师威尔逊（Michael J Wilson）对记者表示，通胀保值债券（TIPS）市场此前已变得非常拥挤，特别是在零售市场，因此无论通胀数据结果如何，回调的时机已经成熟；盈亏平衡通胀率已经反映了市场对通胀的乐观预期，达到10年高点；此外，企业和消费者调查都表明，他们对通胀的预期发生了变化，认为通胀是更持续性的而非间歇性的，这一点很重要，因为预期可以导致行为变化。\n“尽管所有这些指标都大幅走高，但它们似乎也已见顶，10年期国债名义收益率和盈亏平衡收益率已触顶回落。这可能是一个早期信号，表明后续经济增长和通胀都可能不及目前过高的预期。”威尔逊称。\n影响这一预期的关键仍和需求水平有关。一季度高达1.9万亿美元的财政刺激拉动了消费，叠加加密货币扩张又带来了近1万亿美元的财富效应。但机构认为，这两种情况都不太可能在二、三季度重演，这也会逐步体现在经济增速和通胀数据上。\n从名义利率拆解来看，2月中旬之前，美债收益率快速攀升主要受通胀预期回升驱动。疫情后美国经济加速复苏，叠加拜登政府推岀的一轮轮大规模财政刺激，通胀预期不断升温，彼时实际利率受疫情反复等因素的影响持续磨底。\n在突破1.3%后，通胀预期趋于缓和，实际利率替代通胀预期成为推动美债收益率快速上行的核心因素，这也意味着彼时市场的关注点更多落在经济数据的改善上。近期美债收益率的下行，更多则源于通胀预期和实际利率的同步走弱。隐含通胀预期从5月峰值下降近19BP，与CPI连续两个月的大幅上涨形成了鲜明对比。显然，美联储官员以及美国财长耶伦关于“通胀上升是暂时的”的说法终于让市场开始买账了，投资者开始相信，供给短缺造成的涨价将会缓解，且服务性需求的攀升也不可能一直持续下去。\n\n另一些因素可能也在推动收益率下行。景顺首席全球市场策略师Kristina Hooper对记者表示，债市正在对某些国家的新冠肺炎疫情未能受控的担忧做出反应，尤其是在更令人担忧的Delta变异病毒株迅速传播的情况下，这可能会抑制经济增长。Delta变异病毒株占英国新病例的90%，并且很可能成为美国的主要毒株；此外，美国以外的投资者仍被美国国债所吸引，特别是考虑到欧元区的利率非常低。上周的一个催化剂是美元走软，这刺激了外国购买美国政府债券。\n紧缩周期前夕应均衡配置\n不过，通胀预期触顶并不代表通胀会很快下行，更不代表全球央行尤其是美联储永远不“收水”。\nKristina Hooper预计，本周举行的美联储议息会议将开始讨论缩减买债规模的问题，可能会在夏末的杰克逊·霍尔会议（Jackson Hole）上宣布缩表时间点，并于秋季开始实行。但市场可能还没有准备好接受这个消息，预计美债收益率可能在下半年上升。\n历史数据也显示，即使在经济增长动能见顶放缓、流动性边际收紧的时期，股市表现仍可能保持良好，盈利增长是驱动股价攀升的关键。当然回报往往会弱于经济强劲增长的时期。在行业配置上，比起在上一个阶段侧重于顺周期板块的配置，在当前的中周期，行业配置就需要在长期可持续成长和顺周期板块中求取平衡。\n年初以来，从成长到价值的板块轮动加速。但事实上，5月以来，早周期板块相较于标普500的表现已明显触顶回落，这也和美债收益率触顶回落的时间点吻合。\n\n大摩认为，在成长（growth）和价值/周期性行业（value）之间，后疫情时代的每股收益驱动因素将更加均衡，消费者服务、运输、能源和资本物品等板块预计将成为价值/周期板块的重要增长驱动力，这和过去两年有较大不同，当时每股收益增长主要集中在科技和通信服务。\n未来，更高的利润率预期主要是由科技、互联网和制药行业推动的。就不同板块对整体营业利润的贡献来看，科技公司仍占主导。具体而言，传媒和娱乐行业(以谷歌和脸书主导）的利润增长几乎占预期利润增长的四分之一，软件/服务占17%，零售服务占16%（其中亚马逊一家公司就贡献了近三分之二），半导体占12%，科技硬件占10%，制药占11%。\n之所以这一时期要均衡配置，也是因为从绝对角度看，大摩认为预期利润率涨幅最大的是科技股和一些周期性行业，部分周期性行业在经历了上半年的大涨后，后续行情仍有望延续，包括汽车、耐用消费品/服装、多元金融(资管公司、投行、经纪公司)、能源和材料等。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160521292,"gmtCreate":1623802449316,"gmtModify":1703819736489,"author":{"id":"3585184527329429","authorId":"3585184527329429","name":"Hyunra","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585184527329429","authorIdStr":"3585184527329429"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"。。","listText":"。。","text":"。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160521292","repostId":"2143750481","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3602,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}