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What's Next for the Fed?

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17:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What's Next for the Fed?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175143290","media":" FT中文网","summary":"是先缩减购债规模还是先加息？","content":"<p>Stronger economic data and high inflation have led the market to speculate that the Federal Reserve may accelerate the tightening of monetary policy. Will the Fed tighten monetary policy next? Should we reduce the scale of bond purchases first or rate hike first? Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States hit a record high in June, recording 62.6, exceeding the expected value of 61.5 and the previous value of 62.1. The US went from deflation in May last year (down 0.1% year-on-year) to year-on-year inflation reaching a new high in 2008 in May this year (up 5% year-on-year). The relatively strong U.S. economic data and high inflation have led the market to speculate that the Federal Reserve may accelerate the tightening of monetary policy.</p><p>However, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting in June still maintained the zero interest rate monetary policy, and the monthly bond purchase scale remained unchanged. With the continuous improvement of high inflation and economic data, many Federal Reserve chairmen have recently pre-communicated the future monetary policy in the open market. Will the Fed tighten monetary policy next? If tightening, should we Taper bond purchases first or rate hike first?<b>The economic data is improving, why is the Fed hesitant?</b></p><p>Manufacturing expanded steadily in June, with the Institute of Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) recording 60.6 in June. Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States hit a record high in June, recording 62.6, exceeding the expected value of 61.5 and the previous value of 62.1. Recently, the U.S. economic data has continued to improve. In May, the United States reported a 5.0% year-over-year increase in inflation and a 3.8% year-over-year increase in Core inflation (Core CPI). Under the continuous positive economic data and high inflation, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting in June still maintained zero interest rate, and the monthly bond purchase scale remained unchanged. So why is the Fed still hesitant?</p><p>I think there are actually several aspects to analyze, the first may be the political level, and the second may be the economic level. However, the political level is more complicated, involving partisanship between Democrats and Republicans, * issues, and I will not explain too much here.</p><p>From an economic perspective, the Fed's monetary policy goals are two: jobs and inflation. At different times, the Fed's monetary policy goals are roughly the same, but it also takes into account other economic factors besides employment and inflation.</p><p>First, the Fed's inflation target is set at 2%, and the core CPE in May increased by 3.9% year-on-year. Even considering the base period effect of 2020 (if we observe the inflation from March to May 2020, the base period effect of high inflation in May leads to the contribution of high inflation of about 1.1%), the inflation in May may reach 3.9% (5.0%-1.1%) year-on-year. Therefore, from the current year-on-year inflation data, it is fully consistent with the Fed's tightening action. So will inflation peak and fall in the future, and will the United States still face high inflation in the second half of 2021?</p><p>Compared with the year-on-year inflation data, the month-on-month inflation data is also very important, and the inflation in the next six months can be predicted through the month-on-month inflation data. The author predicts through two scenarios:</p><p>Even assuming that the current price index of end-consumer goods remains unchanged from June to the end of this year (that is, assuming that the inflation growth is 0 month-on-month), it is predicted that the inflation in December this year will be about 2.9% ~3.0% year-on-year, which is actually a relatively high level compared with the inflation target of 2%. Therefore, based on the above assumptions, the second half of 2021 will still be at a high inflation level.</p><p>Scenario 2: Assuming that inflation growth in the second half of the year is forecast at an average of 0.3% month over month, inflation will still grow at a high 5.0% year over year at the end of the year. From this forecast, it should be difficult to say that inflation will fall back quickly in the second half of this year. It should be said that there is still relatively large inflationary pressure in the United States in the second half of the year.</p><p>Of course, it is not ruled out that in the second half of this year, due to various reasons, such as poor vaccination, the global economic recession caused by the outbreak of the epidemic again, in which case the inflation data may also fall rapidly. Otherwise, inflationary pressures are still there in the second half of 2021. Based on the inflation forecast of the above assumptions, inflation has actually met the rate hike conditions of the Federal Reserve.</p><p>Second, I think the key reason for the Fed's hesitation is that the recovery of employment data is not up to expectations. Affected by the pandemic in March 2020, the unemployment rate in the United States reached a peak of nearly 15%. In June, the unemployment rate was still 5.9%, slightly higher than 5.8% in May, and the market expected 5.6%. The unemployment rate has declined steadily since the beginning of the year. The current unemployment rate of 5.9% is actually higher than the natural unemployment rate of the Federal Reserve. The unemployment rate remains high is an important factor preventing the current rapid tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. In the week of July 1, the number of first-time jobless claims was 364,000, compared with the previous value of 375,000 and the expected value of 411,000, which is still some distance from the pre-pandemic average of 200,000.</p><p>Therefore, despite high economic data and inflation, the Fed's hesitancy to tighten monetary policy is mainly because there is still a gap in employment recovery.<b>What's Next for the Fed?</b></p><p><b>First, inflation is not a key factor for the Fed next.</b>May PCE and core PCE were 3.9% and 3.4%. Judging from the author's forecast above, the overall average inflation in the second half of 2021 will not be lower than 3.0%, and the inflation CPI in 2022 is expected to be higher than 2.0%. Core PCE averages for 2021 and 2022 are projected to still likely be above 2%. Therefore, from the perspective of inflation expectations, although the second quarter of 2021 is the phased high of inflation in the United States, with the economic recovery and the rise of commodity prices, it should be difficult for inflation in the United States to quickly fall below 2% in a short time in the future. Therefore, inflation is not the key factor preventing the Fed from tightening monetary policy.</p><p><b>Second, the Fed's next key step is to examine the recovery degree of the job market.</b>The June non-farm employment data released on July 2nd increased to 850,000, a sharp increase from 559,000 in the previous period. But the unemployment rate remained at 5.9% in June, up slightly from 5.8% in May. The current unemployment rate is still far behind the Fed's target rate. In the next step, whether the Federal Reserve will tighten its monetary policy quickly, the key focus is whether the U.S. economy can make up the unemployment gap caused by the epidemic under the continuous recovery.</p><p><b>Third, there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy marginally, and it should Taper first and then rate hike.</b>Although the Fomc Meeting in June kept the monetary policy interest rate and monthly bond purchase scale unchanged. However, it is obvious that the market may tighten monetary policy marginally in advance. According to the dot plot of the Federal Reserve, the rate hike time point moved ahead of the last interest rate meeting, and the Federal Reserve raised the overnight reverse repo rate at the meeting. Then, is the next step for the Fed to rate hike or Taper first? I think that according to past experience, the Fed should Taper first and then rate hike. There are several main considerations:</p><p>(1) From the historical experience, the Federal Reserve tapers first and then rate hike. Looking back at the Fed's monetary policy experience in the past 100 years, the Fed's monetary policy has experienced the non-independent monetary policy of World War II in its history, and it has gradually shifted from the previous quantity regulation to price regulation. During the \"Great Relief\" period, the Federal Reserve developed into a more price-dependent regulation (Taylor's rule was used to regulate short-term interest rates), and quantitative regulation itself was an earlier historical tool. After the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2008, the Federal Reserve adopted an unconventional quantitative easing because the monetary policy interest rate could not be lower than zero, and at the same time hoped to increase the rescue measures during the financial crisis. Under the influence of this epidemic, the Fed's balance sheet expansion as a whole was partially restricted by zero interest rate. Therefore, in line with the circumstances, the Fed should withdraw from quantitative easing tools and rely more on price regulation. According to the most recent experience, the Federal Reserve chose to Taper first in 2013, and then launched its first rate hike in December 2015.</p><p>(2) The recent overnight reverse repurchase of the Federal Reserve approaches one trillion yuan, which shows that the monetary environment of the US dollar is extremely loose, and the extremely loose US dollar environment breeds asset price bubbles. That is, funds may not be effectively transmitted to real enterprises, but more flows into the financial market or areas with financial attributes, causing asset prices to skyrocket. Such as recent crude oil prices, commodities and U.S. real estate prices. According to data released on June 29, the U.S. S&P CoreLogic Case-Schiller Real Estate Value Index rose 14.6% year-on-year in April, the biggest increase since 1988. Therefore, on the premise of ensuring economic growth, it is logical for the Federal Reserve to reduce the scale of asset purchases and withdraw excess dollar funds from the market.</p><p>(3) The next monetary policy of the Federal Reserve may also need to be combined with the actual situation of U.S. fiscal policy. Affected by the pandemic, the U.S. fiscal deficit in 2021-2022 has been mounting, and in June the U.S. Treasury Department said that federal fiscal revenue rose 29% to a record $2.6 trillion in the first eight months of the fiscal year. Spending rose 20% to a record $4.7 trillion, mostly for unemployment benefits, nutrition assistance and COVID-19 relief programs, and the U.S. fiscal deficit grew to a record $2.1 trillion in the first eight months of the fiscal year. Second, Biden pushed for trillions of dollars in proposed new spending on infrastructure, clean energy, education and other projects, forecasting a deficit of $1.84 trillion in fiscal 2022 and public-held debt levels exceeding post-World War II levels. It is more conducive to the implementation of proactive fiscal policies to keep the monetary policy interest rate low until the pandemic is completely repaired.</p><p>To sum up, the author still believes that if the U.S. economy gradually comes out of the quagmire and maintains rapid repair, the Fed may next tighten monetary policy marginally from the end of 2021 to 2022, and reduce the scale of bond purchases (Taper) faster than rate hike.</p>","source":"FTZWW","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's Next for the Fed?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's Next for the Fed?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\"> FT中文网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-08 17:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stronger economic data and high inflation have led the market to speculate that the Federal Reserve may accelerate the tightening of monetary policy. Will the Fed tighten monetary policy next? Should we reduce the scale of bond purchases first or rate hike first? Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States hit a record high in June, recording 62.6, exceeding the expected value of 61.5 and the previous value of 62.1. The US went from deflation in May last year (down 0.1% year-on-year) to year-on-year inflation reaching a new high in 2008 in May this year (up 5% year-on-year). The relatively strong U.S. economic data and high inflation have led the market to speculate that the Federal Reserve may accelerate the tightening of monetary policy.</p><p>However, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting in June still maintained the zero interest rate monetary policy, and the monthly bond purchase scale remained unchanged. With the continuous improvement of high inflation and economic data, many Federal Reserve chairmen have recently pre-communicated the future monetary policy in the open market. Will the Fed tighten monetary policy next? If tightening, should we Taper bond purchases first or rate hike first?<b>The economic data is improving, why is the Fed hesitant?</b></p><p>Manufacturing expanded steadily in June, with the Institute of Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) recording 60.6 in June. Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States hit a record high in June, recording 62.6, exceeding the expected value of 61.5 and the previous value of 62.1. Recently, the U.S. economic data has continued to improve. In May, the United States reported a 5.0% year-over-year increase in inflation and a 3.8% year-over-year increase in Core inflation (Core CPI). Under the continuous positive economic data and high inflation, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting in June still maintained zero interest rate, and the monthly bond purchase scale remained unchanged. So why is the Fed still hesitant?</p><p>I think there are actually several aspects to analyze, the first may be the political level, and the second may be the economic level. However, the political level is more complicated, involving partisanship between Democrats and Republicans, * issues, and I will not explain too much here.</p><p>From an economic perspective, the Fed's monetary policy goals are two: jobs and inflation. At different times, the Fed's monetary policy goals are roughly the same, but it also takes into account other economic factors besides employment and inflation.</p><p>First, the Fed's inflation target is set at 2%, and the core CPE in May increased by 3.9% year-on-year. Even considering the base period effect of 2020 (if we observe the inflation from March to May 2020, the base period effect of high inflation in May leads to the contribution of high inflation of about 1.1%), the inflation in May may reach 3.9% (5.0%-1.1%) year-on-year. Therefore, from the current year-on-year inflation data, it is fully consistent with the Fed's tightening action. So will inflation peak and fall in the future, and will the United States still face high inflation in the second half of 2021?</p><p>Compared with the year-on-year inflation data, the month-on-month inflation data is also very important, and the inflation in the next six months can be predicted through the month-on-month inflation data. The author predicts through two scenarios:</p><p>Even assuming that the current price index of end-consumer goods remains unchanged from June to the end of this year (that is, assuming that the inflation growth is 0 month-on-month), it is predicted that the inflation in December this year will be about 2.9% ~3.0% year-on-year, which is actually a relatively high level compared with the inflation target of 2%. Therefore, based on the above assumptions, the second half of 2021 will still be at a high inflation level.</p><p>Scenario 2: Assuming that inflation growth in the second half of the year is forecast at an average of 0.3% month over month, inflation will still grow at a high 5.0% year over year at the end of the year. From this forecast, it should be difficult to say that inflation will fall back quickly in the second half of this year. It should be said that there is still relatively large inflationary pressure in the United States in the second half of the year.</p><p>Of course, it is not ruled out that in the second half of this year, due to various reasons, such as poor vaccination, the global economic recession caused by the outbreak of the epidemic again, in which case the inflation data may also fall rapidly. Otherwise, inflationary pressures are still there in the second half of 2021. Based on the inflation forecast of the above assumptions, inflation has actually met the rate hike conditions of the Federal Reserve.</p><p>Second, I think the key reason for the Fed's hesitation is that the recovery of employment data is not up to expectations. Affected by the pandemic in March 2020, the unemployment rate in the United States reached a peak of nearly 15%. In June, the unemployment rate was still 5.9%, slightly higher than 5.8% in May, and the market expected 5.6%. The unemployment rate has declined steadily since the beginning of the year. The current unemployment rate of 5.9% is actually higher than the natural unemployment rate of the Federal Reserve. The unemployment rate remains high is an important factor preventing the current rapid tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. In the week of July 1, the number of first-time jobless claims was 364,000, compared with the previous value of 375,000 and the expected value of 411,000, which is still some distance from the pre-pandemic average of 200,000.</p><p>Therefore, despite high economic data and inflation, the Fed's hesitancy to tighten monetary policy is mainly because there is still a gap in employment recovery.<b>What's Next for the Fed?</b></p><p><b>First, inflation is not a key factor for the Fed next.</b>May PCE and core PCE were 3.9% and 3.4%. Judging from the author's forecast above, the overall average inflation in the second half of 2021 will not be lower than 3.0%, and the inflation CPI in 2022 is expected to be higher than 2.0%. Core PCE averages for 2021 and 2022 are projected to still likely be above 2%. Therefore, from the perspective of inflation expectations, although the second quarter of 2021 is the phased high of inflation in the United States, with the economic recovery and the rise of commodity prices, it should be difficult for inflation in the United States to quickly fall below 2% in a short time in the future. Therefore, inflation is not the key factor preventing the Fed from tightening monetary policy.</p><p><b>Second, the Fed's next key step is to examine the recovery degree of the job market.</b>The June non-farm employment data released on July 2nd increased to 850,000, a sharp increase from 559,000 in the previous period. But the unemployment rate remained at 5.9% in June, up slightly from 5.8% in May. The current unemployment rate is still far behind the Fed's target rate. In the next step, whether the Federal Reserve will tighten its monetary policy quickly, the key focus is whether the U.S. economy can make up the unemployment gap caused by the epidemic under the continuous recovery.</p><p><b>Third, there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy marginally, and it should Taper first and then rate hike.</b>Although the Fomc Meeting in June kept the monetary policy interest rate and monthly bond purchase scale unchanged. However, it is obvious that the market may tighten monetary policy marginally in advance. According to the dot plot of the Federal Reserve, the rate hike time point moved ahead of the last interest rate meeting, and the Federal Reserve raised the overnight reverse repo rate at the meeting. Then, is the next step for the Fed to rate hike or Taper first? I think that according to past experience, the Fed should Taper first and then rate hike. There are several main considerations:</p><p>(1) From the historical experience, the Federal Reserve tapers first and then rate hike. Looking back at the Fed's monetary policy experience in the past 100 years, the Fed's monetary policy has experienced the non-independent monetary policy of World War II in its history, and it has gradually shifted from the previous quantity regulation to price regulation. During the \"Great Relief\" period, the Federal Reserve developed into a more price-dependent regulation (Taylor's rule was used to regulate short-term interest rates), and quantitative regulation itself was an earlier historical tool. After the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2008, the Federal Reserve adopted an unconventional quantitative easing because the monetary policy interest rate could not be lower than zero, and at the same time hoped to increase the rescue measures during the financial crisis. Under the influence of this epidemic, the Fed's balance sheet expansion as a whole was partially restricted by zero interest rate. Therefore, in line with the circumstances, the Fed should withdraw from quantitative easing tools and rely more on price regulation. According to the most recent experience, the Federal Reserve chose to Taper first in 2013, and then launched its first rate hike in December 2015.</p><p>(2) The recent overnight reverse repurchase of the Federal Reserve approaches one trillion yuan, which shows that the monetary environment of the US dollar is extremely loose, and the extremely loose US dollar environment breeds asset price bubbles. That is, funds may not be effectively transmitted to real enterprises, but more flows into the financial market or areas with financial attributes, causing asset prices to skyrocket. Such as recent crude oil prices, commodities and U.S. real estate prices. According to data released on June 29, the U.S. S&P CoreLogic Case-Schiller Real Estate Value Index rose 14.6% year-on-year in April, the biggest increase since 1988. Therefore, on the premise of ensuring economic growth, it is logical for the Federal Reserve to reduce the scale of asset purchases and withdraw excess dollar funds from the market.</p><p>(3) The next monetary policy of the Federal Reserve may also need to be combined with the actual situation of U.S. fiscal policy. Affected by the pandemic, the U.S. fiscal deficit in 2021-2022 has been mounting, and in June the U.S. Treasury Department said that federal fiscal revenue rose 29% to a record $2.6 trillion in the first eight months of the fiscal year. Spending rose 20% to a record $4.7 trillion, mostly for unemployment benefits, nutrition assistance and COVID-19 relief programs, and the U.S. fiscal deficit grew to a record $2.1 trillion in the first eight months of the fiscal year. Second, Biden pushed for trillions of dollars in proposed new spending on infrastructure, clean energy, education and other projects, forecasting a deficit of $1.84 trillion in fiscal 2022 and public-held debt levels exceeding post-World War II levels. It is more conducive to the implementation of proactive fiscal policies to keep the monetary policy interest rate low until the pandemic is completely repaired.</p><p>To sum up, the author still believes that if the U.S. economy gradually comes out of the quagmire and maintains rapid repair, the Fed may next tighten monetary policy marginally from the end of 2021 to 2022, and reduce the scale of bond purchases (Taper) faster than rate hike.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/g4NMm6zTSYivw_uM5P9O9g\"> FT中文网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/g4NMm6zTSYivw_uM5P9O9g","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175143290","content_text":"较为强劲的经济数据和高通胀，让市场猜测美联储可能加快收紧货币政策。美联储下一步是否会收紧货币政策？是先缩减购债规模还是先加息？\n\n美国6月Markit制造业PMI创纪录新高，录得62.6，超过预期值61.5及前值62.1。美国从去年5月通缩（同比跌0.1%）到今年5月同比通胀创2008年新高（同比增长5%）。较为强劲的美国经济数据和高通胀，让市场猜测美联储可能加快收紧货币政策。\n但6月份美联储货币政策会议仍然保持零利率货币政策，维持每月购债规模维持不变。伴随高通胀和经济数据持续转好，近期多位美联储主席也在公开市场对未来货币政策进行预沟通。美联储下一步是否会收紧货币政策？如果收紧是先缩减购债规模（Taper）还是先加息？经济数据向好，美联储为何犹豫不绝？\n6月制造业稳步扩张，美国供应管理协会(ISM)制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)6月录得60.6。美国6月Markit制造业PMI创纪录新高，录得62.6，超过预期值61.5及前值62.1。近期美国经济数据持续向好。5月美国公布通胀同比增长5.0%，核心通胀（Core CPI）同比增长3.8%。持续向好的经济数据和高通胀下，6月份美联储货币政策会议仍然维持零利率，每月购债规模维持不变。那么美联储为什么还犹豫不决？\n笔者觉得其实有几个方面去分析，第一个可能是政治层面，第二个可能是经济层面。但是政治层面比较复杂，涉及民主党和共和党的党派之争、连任问题，这里不做过多说明。\n从经济角度来看，美联储的货币政策目标有两个：就业和通胀。在不同时期美联储盯住的货币政策目标大致相同，但同时也会考虑就业和通胀之外的其他经济因素。\n第一，美联储的通胀目标设定为2%，5月份核心CPE同比增长3.9%，即便考虑2020年的基期效应（如果观察2020年3-5月的通胀环比来看，5月高通胀的基期效应导致高通胀的贡献大约1.1%），5月通胀同比可能达到3.9%（5.0%-1.1%）。因此，从当前的通胀同比数据完全可以符合美联储做出收紧的动作。那么未来的通胀是否会见顶回落，以及2021年下半年美国是否还面临高通胀？\n相对于通胀同比数据而言，通胀环比数据也十分重要，且可以通过通胀环比数据对未来半年的通胀进行预测，作者通过两种情景假设进行预测：\n即使，假设从6月份到今年年底，当前终端消费品的价格指数保持不变（也即是假设通胀环比增长为0），预测今年12月的通胀同比大约2.9%~3.0%，这相对于通胀目标2%的水平来看，其实也是相对蛮高水平。所以，基于上述的假设，2021年下半年仍然会是较高的通胀水平。\n情景2：假设今年下半年的通胀环比增长按照平均0.3%来预测，今年年底通胀同比增长速度仍然高达5.0%。从这个预测来看，今年下半年通胀应该很难说快速回落。应该来说，下半年美国还是有比较大的通胀压力。\n当然也不排除今年下半年因为种种原因，例如疫苗接种情况不良好，疫情再次爆发导致全球经济衰退，这种情况下通胀数据也可能快速回落。否则，2021年下半年通胀压力还是存在的。基于上述假设的通胀预测，其实通胀已经符合美联储的加息条件。\n第二，笔者来看美联储犹豫的关键原因还是就业数据恢复不达预期。2020年3月份受到疫情影响，美国失业率最高接近15%，6月失业率仍然是5.9%，小幅高于5月的5.8%，市场预期5.6%。从今年年初以来，失业率稳步下降。当前的失业率5.9%其实还是高于美联储的自然失业率水平。失业率仍然较高是阻止当前美联储快速收紧货币政策的一个重要因素。7月1日当周，首次申请失业金人数为36.4万人，前值37.5万人，预期值41.1万人，这距离疫情前的平均水平20万人次还有一定距离。\n因此，虽然经济数据和通胀高企，但美联储仍然对收紧货币政策犹豫不决主要还是因为就业恢复还有差距。美联储的下一步如何走？\n第一，通胀并非美联储下一步的关键因素。5月PCE和核心PCE为3.9%和3.4%。从笔者上述的预测来看，2021年下半年整体平均通胀不会低于3.0%，2022年通胀CPI预计可能还是高于2.0%。预计2021年和2022年的核心PCE平均值仍然可能高于2%。因此，从通胀预期来看，虽然2021年2季度是美国通胀的阶段性高点，但随着经济修复和大宗商品价格上涨，未来美国通胀应该较难在短时间快速下行到2%以下。因此通胀并非是阻止美联储收紧货币政策的关键因素。\n第二，美联储下一步关键考察就业市场的恢复程度。7月2日公布的6月份非农就业数据新增为85万人次，较上期55.9万人次大幅上升。但6月份的失业率仍然为5.9%，较5月份的5.8%小幅上升。当前失业率仍然较美联储的目标率有较大差距。下一步美联储是否快速收紧货币政策，关键着力点还是看美国经济持续修复下是否能补齐因为疫情导致的失业缺口人数。\n第三，美联储大概率会边际收紧货币政策，且应该先Taper后加息。6月份的议息会议（Fomc Meeting）虽然维持货币政策利率和每月购债规模不变。但其实已经较为明显提前引导市场可能边际收紧货币政策，根据美联储的点阵图来看，加息时间点比上次议息会议前移，且美联储在会议上提高了隔夜逆回购利率。那么，美联储下一步是先加息还是先Taper，笔者认为根据以往经验来看，美联储应该是先Taper后加息，主要有几个考虑因素：\n（1）从历史经验来看，美联储是先Taper再加息。回顾美联储过去百年的货币政策的施政经验来看，美联储的货币政策历史上经历过二战的非独立货币政策，也从之前的数量调控为主逐步转向了价格调控。“大缓和”时期，美联储发展为更多依赖于价格的调控手段（以泰勒规则来调节短期利率），数量调控本身是较早的历史工具。2008年美国次贷危机之后，美联储因为受到货币政策利率不能低于零，同时又希望加大对金融危机期间的拯救措施，采取了非常规的量化宽松，本轮疫情影响下的美联储扩表整体也是部分受到了零利率的限制。因此符合情况下，美联储理应退出量化宽松工具，更多依赖价格调控。最近一次经验来看，美联储在2013年选择先Taper，然后2015年12月才首次加息。\n（2）美联储近期隔夜逆回购逼近万亿规模说明美元货币环境极度宽松，极度宽松美元环境滋生资产价格泡沫。即资金可能并非能够有效地传导到实体企业，而更多流入金融市场或者具有金融属性的领域，造成资产价格暴涨行情。例如近期的原油价格行情、大宗商品和美国房地产价格行情。6月29日发布的数据显示，美国4月标普CoreLogic凯斯-席勒房地产价值指数同比上涨14.6%，创下1988年以来的最大涨幅。因此，在保证经济增长的前提下，美联储减少资产购规模回笼市场上多余美元资金则顺理成章。\n（3）美联储的下一步货币政策可能还需要结合美国财政政策的实况。受到疫情影响，美国2021-2022年财政赤字不断增加，6月份美国财政部表示，财政年度的前8个月里，联邦财政收入增长了29%，达到创纪录的2.6万亿美元。支出增长了20%，达到创纪录的4.7万亿美元，其中主要为失业救济、营养援助和新冠肺炎救援项目，美国财政赤字在本财年的前8个月增长至创纪录的2.1万亿美元。其次，拜登推动在基础设施、清洁能源、教育和其他项目上拟增加数万亿美元新支出，预计2022财年赤字将达到1.84万亿美元，公众持有的债务水平将超过二战后的水平。货币政策利率在疫情完全修复前保持较低利率，更有利于积极财政政策实施。\n综上，笔者仍然认为如果美国经济逐步走出泥潭并保持快速修复，美联储下一步可能在2021年底-2022年边际收紧货币政策，且缩减购债规模（Taper）快于加息。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2837,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157897342,"gmtCreate":1625576824586,"gmtModify":1703744108770,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9b8f75db4c14f22597f42cb3752e117","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584066196704033","idStr":"3584066196704033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/157897342","repostId":"1157219821","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157219821","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625560252,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157219821?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-06 16:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Chuan Merger Plan was blocked, Betta, Huya fell before the market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157219821","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周二，斗鱼盘前跌超10%，虎牙盘前现跌1.64%，此前消息称中国反垄断监管机构正式阻止腾讯合并国内两大直播平台虎牙和斗鱼的计划。","content":"<p>On Tuesday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Betta fish</a>It fell more than 10% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">Tiger tooth</a>Now down 1.64% premarket after news that China's antitrust regulator officially blocked<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>The plan to merge Huya and Douyu, two major live broadcast platforms in China.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChuan Merger Plan was blocked, Betta, Huya fell before the market\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-06 16:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Tuesday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Betta fish</a>It fell more than 10% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">Tiger tooth</a>Now down 1.64% premarket after news that China's antitrust regulator officially blocked<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>The plan to merge Huya and Douyu, two major live broadcast platforms in China.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af724efafb5788a889a167ca9c1dc5c","relate_stocks":{"HUYA":"虎牙","DOYU":"斗鱼"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157219821","content_text":"周二，斗鱼盘前跌超10%，虎牙盘前现跌1.64%，此前消息称中国反垄断监管机构正式阻止腾讯合并国内两大直播平台虎牙和斗鱼的计划。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HUYA":0.9,"DOYU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2467,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157894182,"gmtCreate":1625576792546,"gmtModify":1703744107630,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9b8f75db4c14f22597f42cb3752e117","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584066196704033","idStr":"3584066196704033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/157894182","repostId":"1188552219","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188552219","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625573371,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1188552219?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-06 20:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Pre-market: Big changes in the supervision of Chinese stocks! Weibo stock price staged a \"roller coaster\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188552219","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月6日（周二），美股三大指数期货涨跌不一，纳指期货独自走高。今天是美国独立日假期后首个交易日，市场静待本周晚些时候公布的美联储会议纪要和今日晚些时候公布的美国服务业PMI。\n\n【中概股】\n要闻\n周二","content":"<p>On July 6th (Tuesday), the futures of the three major U.S. stock indexes were mixed, and the Nasdaq futures rose alone. Today is the first trading day after the U.S. Independence Day holiday, and markets wait for the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting to be released later this week and the U.S. services sector PMI to be released later today.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/642410d9a3704d939469b26b3cd3115a\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"254\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>【<b>China Concept Stock]</b></p><p><b>Important News</b></p><p>On Tuesday,<b>The Office of the Central Committee and the Office of the State Council issued the Opinions on Strictly Cracking down on Illegal Securities Activities according to Law. It is suggested that the supervision of Chinese stocks should be strengthened. Take practical measures to respond to risks and emergencies of China concept stock companies, and promote the construction of relevant regulatory systems. Amend the special regulations of the State Council on overseas offering of shares and listing of joint stock companies, clarify the responsibilities of domestic industry supervisors and regulatory authorities, and strengthen cross-departmental supervision and coordination.</b></p><p>It is necessary to improve relevant laws and regulations such as data security, cross-border data flow and confidential information management. We will promptly revise the regulations on strengthening confidentiality and archives management related to overseas securities issuance and listing, and consolidate the main responsibility of overseas listed companies for information security.</p><p><b>Stock price movement</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">Weibo</a>It once soared by nearly 50% before the market, and then the increase narrowed in a \"diving\" style! According to market news: Cao Guowei, chairman of Weibo, negotiated with Chinese state-owned investors to privatize Weibo platform. The hoped privatization price is 90-100 USD per share, a premium of 70.13%-89.03% over the previous day's closing price of 52.9 USD. But,<b>The person in charge of the relevant department of Weibo said that privatization was \"false\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6106699a492d43d0297d4369293ff0b2\" tg-width=\"1405\" tg-height=\"873\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>It fell about 20% premarket. Last weekend, the relevant authorities announced the implementation of a cyber security review of Didi Chuxing. In order to cooperate with the network security review and prevent the expansion of risks, Didi Chuxing stopped new user registration during the review period.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>The group plunged 19% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">Direct hiring by BOSS</a>It fell nearly 10%. Both are subject to cybersecurity review by relevant departments.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Betta fish</a>It fell more than 6% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">Tiger tooth</a>It fell more than 2% premarket. According to the news,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>The merger plan of Huya and Douyu, the dominant two domestic live broadcast platforms, has been blocked.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>It fell more than 4% premarket. XPeng will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Wednesday. Today, the dark market of Hong Kong stocks fell below the issue price of HK$ 165/share, a drop of more than 1%. If XPeng is successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange tomorrow, it will become the first Chinese car company to be listed in New York and Hong Kong for two days in nearly three years.</p><p>At the same time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>It fell by more than 2%.</p><p>Popular Chinese stocks generally fell. Among them,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>fell by more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It fell by more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">ding-dong</a>shopping for groceries,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily Excellent Fresh</a>fell by more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">Gaotu</a>It fell by more than 3%.</p><p>【<b>Important U.S. Stocks]</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">Game Station</a>It rose 1.4% premarket. Market news: Game Station plans to build a new facility in Reno, Nevada, which is expected to be operational in 2022.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinema</a>It rose more than 3% before the market. Market news: AMC Cinemas will not seek shareholder approval to increase its share capital.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTM\">Tata Motors</a>It fell more than 8% premarket as Jaguar Land Rover expects the chip shortage in the second quarter to be worse than in the first quarter.</p><p>The blockchain sector of U.S. stocks generally rose before the market, but the increase dropped. Bit Digital rose 1.88%, MicroStrategy rose 1.12%, Riot Blockchain rose 2.15% and Marathon Patent rose 2.01%.</p><p>【<b>Commodities]</b></p><p>International oil prices fell from their highs. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) failed to hold talks on Monday, which the alliance abandoned after failing to reach an agreement on output policy for the third time amid opposition from the UAE, amid expectations of tightening supply in the oil market, but fears that members could start increasing production limited gains.</p><p>As of press time, the price of WTI crude oil futures was reported at $75.83/barrel, an increase of 0.89%; Brent crude oil futures price was traded at $76.92/barrel, down 0.31%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98c6e775cc542e59324e8f2fd3ecb0dd\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>International gold prices rose. The worry caused by the global mutant virus has heated up, and the market's worry about the Fed's earlier interest rate hike has eased. At present, the market is paying close attention to the guidance of the Fed's meeting minutes.</p><p>As of press time, the price of gold futures in New York market was reported at $1,811.90/oz, an increase of 1.60%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a44e298a8125c7cc8c2ffe486bf34b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-market: Big changes in the supervision of Chinese stocks! Weibo stock price staged a \"roller coaster\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-market: Big changes in the supervision of Chinese stocks! Weibo stock price staged a \"roller coaster\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-06 20:09</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On July 6th (Tuesday), the futures of the three major U.S. stock indexes were mixed, and the Nasdaq futures rose alone. Today is the first trading day after the U.S. Independence Day holiday, and markets wait for the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting to be released later this week and the U.S. services sector PMI to be released later today.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/642410d9a3704d939469b26b3cd3115a\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"254\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>【<b>China Concept Stock]</b></p><p><b>Important News</b></p><p>On Tuesday,<b>The Office of the Central Committee and the Office of the State Council issued the Opinions on Strictly Cracking down on Illegal Securities Activities according to Law. It is suggested that the supervision of Chinese stocks should be strengthened. Take practical measures to respond to risks and emergencies of China concept stock companies, and promote the construction of relevant regulatory systems. Amend the special regulations of the State Council on overseas offering of shares and listing of joint stock companies, clarify the responsibilities of domestic industry supervisors and regulatory authorities, and strengthen cross-departmental supervision and coordination.</b></p><p>It is necessary to improve relevant laws and regulations such as data security, cross-border data flow and confidential information management. We will promptly revise the regulations on strengthening confidentiality and archives management related to overseas securities issuance and listing, and consolidate the main responsibility of overseas listed companies for information security.</p><p><b>Stock price movement</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">Weibo</a>It once soared by nearly 50% before the market, and then the increase narrowed in a \"diving\" style! According to market news: Cao Guowei, chairman of Weibo, negotiated with Chinese state-owned investors to privatize Weibo platform. The hoped privatization price is 90-100 USD per share, a premium of 70.13%-89.03% over the previous day's closing price of 52.9 USD. But,<b>The person in charge of the relevant department of Weibo said that privatization was \"false\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6106699a492d43d0297d4369293ff0b2\" tg-width=\"1405\" tg-height=\"873\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>It fell about 20% premarket. Last weekend, the relevant authorities announced the implementation of a cyber security review of Didi Chuxing. In order to cooperate with the network security review and prevent the expansion of risks, Didi Chuxing stopped new user registration during the review period.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>The group plunged 19% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">Direct hiring by BOSS</a>It fell nearly 10%. Both are subject to cybersecurity review by relevant departments.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Betta fish</a>It fell more than 6% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">Tiger tooth</a>It fell more than 2% premarket. According to the news,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>The merger plan of Huya and Douyu, the dominant two domestic live broadcast platforms, has been blocked.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>It fell more than 4% premarket. XPeng will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Wednesday. Today, the dark market of Hong Kong stocks fell below the issue price of HK$ 165/share, a drop of more than 1%. If XPeng is successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange tomorrow, it will become the first Chinese car company to be listed in New York and Hong Kong for two days in nearly three years.</p><p>At the same time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>It fell by more than 2%.</p><p>Popular Chinese stocks generally fell. Among them,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>fell by more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It fell by more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">ding-dong</a>shopping for groceries,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily Excellent Fresh</a>fell by more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">Gaotu</a>It fell by more than 3%.</p><p>【<b>Important U.S. Stocks]</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">Game Station</a>It rose 1.4% premarket. Market news: Game Station plans to build a new facility in Reno, Nevada, which is expected to be operational in 2022.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinema</a>It rose more than 3% before the market. Market news: AMC Cinemas will not seek shareholder approval to increase its share capital.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTM\">Tata Motors</a>It fell more than 8% premarket as Jaguar Land Rover expects the chip shortage in the second quarter to be worse than in the first quarter.</p><p>The blockchain sector of U.S. stocks generally rose before the market, but the increase dropped. Bit Digital rose 1.88%, MicroStrategy rose 1.12%, Riot Blockchain rose 2.15% and Marathon Patent rose 2.01%.</p><p>【<b>Commodities]</b></p><p>International oil prices fell from their highs. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) failed to hold talks on Monday, which the alliance abandoned after failing to reach an agreement on output policy for the third time amid opposition from the UAE, amid expectations of tightening supply in the oil market, but fears that members could start increasing production limited gains.</p><p>As of press time, the price of WTI crude oil futures was reported at $75.83/barrel, an increase of 0.89%; Brent crude oil futures price was traded at $76.92/barrel, down 0.31%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98c6e775cc542e59324e8f2fd3ecb0dd\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>International gold prices rose. The worry caused by the global mutant virus has heated up, and the market's worry about the Fed's earlier interest rate hike has eased. At present, the market is paying close attention to the guidance of the Fed's meeting minutes.</p><p>As of press time, the price of gold futures in New York market was reported at $1,811.90/oz, an increase of 1.60%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a44e298a8125c7cc8c2ffe486bf34b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188552219","content_text":"7月6日（周二），美股三大指数期货涨跌不一，纳指期货独自走高。今天是美国独立日假期后首个交易日，市场静待本周晚些时候公布的美联储会议纪要和今日晚些时候公布的美国服务业PMI。\n\n【中概股】\n要闻\n周二，中办、国办印发《关于依法从严打击证券违法活动的意见》。意见提出，要加强中概股监管。切实采取措施做好中概股公司风险及突发情况应对，推进相关监管制度体系建设。修改国务院关于股份有限公司境外募集股份及上市的特别规定，明确境内行业主管和监管部门职责，加强跨部门监管协同。\n要完善数据安全、跨境数据流动、涉密信息管理等相关法律法规。抓紧修订关于加强在境外发行证券与上市相关保密和档案管理工作的规定，压实境外上市公司信息安全主体责任。\n股价走势\n微博盘前一度暴涨近50%，后涨幅呈“跳水”式收窄！市场消息称：微博董事长曹国伟和中国国有投资者洽谈将微博平台私有化，希望的私有化价格为每股90-100美元，较前日收盘价52.9美元溢价70.13%-89.03%。不过，微博相关部门负责人表示，私有化“传言不实”。\n\n滴滴盘前跌约20%。上周末，有关部门宣布对滴滴出行实施网络安全审查。为配合网络安全审查工作，防范风险扩大，审查期间滴滴出行停止新用户注册。\n满帮集团盘前大跌19%，BOSS直聘跌近10%。二者均被有关部门进行网络安全审查。\n斗鱼盘前跌超6%，虎牙盘前跌超2%。消息称，腾讯主导的国内两大直播平台虎牙和斗鱼的合并计划已经被阻止。\n小鹏汽车盘前跌超4%。小鹏汽车将于本周三在港交所挂牌上市，今日港股暗盘跌破发行价165港元/股，跌幅超过1%。如果小鹏汽车明天成功在港交所挂牌上市，将成为近三年以来首个在纽约香港两天上市的中国车企。\n同时，理想汽车、蔚来跌超2%。\n热门中概股普遍下跌。其中，知乎跌超8%，哔哩哔哩跌超4%，叮咚买菜、每日优鲜跌超5%，好未来、高途跌超3%。\n【重要美股】\n游戏驿站盘前涨1.4%。市场消息：游戏驿站计划在内华达州里诺市建立新工厂，预计于2022年投入运营。\nAMC院线盘前涨超3%。市场消息：AMC院线不会寻求股东批准增加股本。\n塔塔汽车盘前跌超8%，因捷豹路虎预计第二季度芯片短缺的情况将比第一季度更严重。\n美股区块链板块盘前普涨，但涨幅有所回落。Bit Digital涨1.88%，MicroStrategy涨1.12%，Riot Blockchain涨2.15%，Marathon Patent涨2.01%。\n【大宗商品】\n国际油价从高点回落。石油输出国组织及其盟友(OPEC+)在周一举行的谈判失败，由于阿联酋的反对，该联盟在第三次未能就产出政策达成协议后放弃了这次会议，市场预期油市供应将趋紧，但对成员国可能开始增产的担忧限制了涨幅。\n截至发稿，WTI原油期货价格报75.83美元/桶，涨幅0.89%；布伦特原油期货价格报76.92美元/桶，跌幅0.31%。\n\n国际金价上涨。全球变异病毒造成的担忧情绪升温，且市场对美联储更早升息的担忧缓和，目前市场密切关注美联储会议纪要的指引。\n截至发稿，纽约市场黄金期货价格报1811.90美元/盎司，涨幅1.60%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3549,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152889552,"gmtCreate":1625280704376,"gmtModify":1703739895465,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9b8f75db4c14f22597f42cb3752e117","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584066196704033","idStr":"3584066196704033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/152889552","repostId":"1125914096","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3634,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152889006,"gmtCreate":1625280686605,"gmtModify":1703739893510,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9b8f75db4c14f22597f42cb3752e117","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584066196704033","idStr":"3584066196704033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/152889006","repostId":"2148780149","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2148780149","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625271343,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2148780149?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-03 08:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Swan Daojia submits US IPO application to sprint the first share of China's family service platform","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2148780149","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周五，据美国证券交易委员会文件，天鹅到家(原58到家)递交美股IPO申请，冲刺中国家庭服务平台第一股。该公司寻求在纽交所上市，交易代码为“JIA”。摩根大通、瑞银集团、中金公司为主承销商。\n据艾瑞咨询","content":"<p>On Friday, according to U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings, Swan Daojia (formerly 58 Daojia) submitted an IPO application for U.S. stocks, sprinting to the first stock of China's family service platform. The company seeks a listing on the NYSE under the symbol \"JIA.\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Group,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>As the lead underwriter.</p><p>According to iResearch, the market size of China's home services sector is very large. In 2020, the market size was about 909 billion yuan (the same below), and it is expected to increase to about 2.12 trillion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 18.5%. In terms of market share, as of 2020, the penetration rate of Swan Daojia in the national target market was 8%, and the penetration rate of target market in 29 self-operated cities was 22.3%, with huge market potential and development space.</p><p>Founded in 2014, Swan Daojia belongs to Daojia Group. On September 7, 2020, it was officially renamed from \"58 Daojia\" to \"Swan Daojia\". According to the prospectus, the GTV (total transaction volume) of Swan Home platform is as high as 8.828 billion yuan ($1.353 billion), more than twice the sum of the second to fifth places in the same industry.</p><p>In terms of main business income, the main business income of Swan Daojia in 2019 was 611 million yuan, an increase of 53.3% over 2018. Main business revenue in 2020 was 711 million yuan ($109 million), up 16.4% from 2019. In the first quarter of 2021, the company's main business income was 197 million yuan, an increase of 38.4% from 142 million yuan in the first quarter of 2020.</p><p>The company's gross profit in 2018 and 2019 was 51.74 million yuan and 159 million yuan, respectively, a significant increase of 208.2%. Gross profit in 2020 was 278 million yuan ($42.45 million), up 74.5% year-on-year. At the same time, the gross profit margin increased from 13% in 2018 to 46% in the first quarter of 2021, and both gross profit and gross profit margin achieved double-digit growth for three consecutive years.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Swan Daojia submits US IPO application to sprint the first share of China's family service platform</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSwan Daojia submits US IPO application to sprint the first share of China's family service platform\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-03 08:15</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Friday, according to U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings, Swan Daojia (formerly 58 Daojia) submitted an IPO application for U.S. stocks, sprinting to the first stock of China's family service platform. The company seeks a listing on the NYSE under the symbol \"JIA.\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Group,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>As the lead underwriter.</p><p>According to iResearch, the market size of China's home services sector is very large. In 2020, the market size was about 909 billion yuan (the same below), and it is expected to increase to about 2.12 trillion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 18.5%. In terms of market share, as of 2020, the penetration rate of Swan Daojia in the national target market was 8%, and the penetration rate of target market in 29 self-operated cities was 22.3%, with huge market potential and development space.</p><p>Founded in 2014, Swan Daojia belongs to Daojia Group. On September 7, 2020, it was officially renamed from \"58 Daojia\" to \"Swan Daojia\". According to the prospectus, the GTV (total transaction volume) of Swan Home platform is as high as 8.828 billion yuan ($1.353 billion), more than twice the sum of the second to fifth places in the same industry.</p><p>In terms of main business income, the main business income of Swan Daojia in 2019 was 611 million yuan, an increase of 53.3% over 2018. Main business revenue in 2020 was 711 million yuan ($109 million), up 16.4% from 2019. In the first quarter of 2021, the company's main business income was 197 million yuan, an increase of 38.4% from 142 million yuan in the first quarter of 2020.</p><p>The company's gross profit in 2018 and 2019 was 51.74 million yuan and 159 million yuan, respectively, a significant increase of 208.2%. Gross profit in 2020 was 278 million yuan ($42.45 million), up 74.5% year-on-year. At the same time, the gross profit margin increased from 13% in 2018 to 46% in the first quarter of 2021, and both gross profit and gross profit margin achieved double-digit growth for three consecutive years.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7123c00c718afd2209048e9d94f04a1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2148780149","content_text":"周五，据美国证券交易委员会文件，天鹅到家(原58到家)递交美股IPO申请，冲刺中国家庭服务平台第一股。该公司寻求在纽交所上市，交易代码为“JIA”。摩根大通、瑞银集团、中金公司为主承销商。\n据艾瑞咨询的数据，中国家庭服务领域的市场规模非常庞大，2020年市场规模约9090亿元人民币(下同)，预计到2025年增加到约2.12万亿元，年复合增长18.5%。市场份额方面，截至2020年，天鹅到家在全国目标市场渗透率为8%，在自营29个城市目标市场渗透率为22.3%，市场潜力和发展空间巨大。\n天鹅到家成立于2014年，隶属于到家集团，2020年9月7日正式由“58到家”改名为“天鹅到家”。招股书显示，天鹅到家平台GTV (总交易额)高达88.28亿元(合13.53亿美元)，比同行业第2名至第5名总和的两倍还多。\n主营业务收入方面，天鹅到家2019年的主营业务收入6.11亿元，较2018年增长53.3%。2020年的主营业务收入7.11亿元(合1.09亿美元)，较2019年增长16.4%。2021年公司第一季度主营业务收入为1.97亿元，较2020年一季度的1.42亿元增长38.4%。\n公司2018年与2019年的毛利润分别为5174万元与1.59亿元，大幅增长208.2%。2020年实现毛利润2.78亿元(合4245万美元)，同比增长74.5%。与此同时，毛利率从2018年的13%，增长到2021年一季度的46%，毛利润和毛利率双双实现高达两位数的三年连涨。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158951709,"gmtCreate":1625125457801,"gmtModify":1703736621737,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9b8f75db4c14f22597f42cb3752e117","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584066196704033","idStr":"3584066196704033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/158951709","repostId":"1133219370","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133219370","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625096461,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133219370?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-01 07:41","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Last Night This Morning: Another S&P High! Didi's debut surges higher and falls back","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133219370","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：美股周三收盘涨跌不一，标普指数再创收盘历史新高；美国原油库存6连降推动美油收涨0.7％！上半年累计飙升逾51％；滴滴赴美上市，筹资44亿美元，开盘价为18美元，与每股14美元的IPO发行价相比上","content":"<p>Abstract: U.S. stocks closed mixed on Wednesday, and the S&P index hit another record closing high; U.S. crude oil inventories dropped 6 times in a row, pushing U.S. oil to close up 0.7%! A cumulative surge of more than 51% in the first half of the year; Didi went public in the U.S., raising $4.4 billion, and opened at $18, up nearly 29% from the IPO offering price of $14 per share. Overseas markets</p><p>1. Closing: The three major U.S. stock indexes all rose by more than 12% in the first half of the year</p><p>U.S. stocks closed mixed on Wednesday, with the S&P hitting another record closing high. The three major stock indexes all rose more than 12% in the first half of the year. The market is evaluating the June ADP employment data versus the May second-hand home sales signing report, and awaits more economic data on the labor market, such as non-farm payrolls. The Dow closed up 210.22 points, or 0.61%, at 34,502.51; The Nasdaq fell 24.38 points, or 0.17%, to 14,503.95 points; The S&P 500 rose 5.70 points, or 0.13%, to 4,297.50.</p><p>Didi closed 1.4% higher. The company determined to set the U.S. IPO price at the top of the guidance range of $14/ADS, which is at the upper price limit of the offering range of $13-14, which means that the company is valued at more than $67 billion.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">ding-dong</a>Grocery shopping closed sharply higher. Yesterday, the first hang rose slightly by 0.09%, and once broke in the session.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>The offer price of Hong Kong IPO was determined to be HK$165 per share, and trading began on July 7th.</p><p>2. Popular Chinese stocks closed with mixed ups and downs on Wednesday, and once rose by more than 20% in the intraday session</p><p>Popular Chinese stocks closed with mixed gains and losses on Wednesday. Didi, the first car-hailing stock in China, was officially listed on the New York Stock Exchange, with an intraday increase of more than 20%, and finally closed up 1%; Pupu Culture, the first hip-hop stock in China, officially landed on Nasdaq, triggering fuse blowers many times during the session, and finally closed by 405%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">ding-dong</a>Grocery rose by nearly 63% the next day after its listing, and once rose by nearly 100% in the intraday session.</p><p>Manbang rose by more than 26%, Ruixing powder list rose by more than 22%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MTC\">Haichuan Securities</a>It rose by more than 11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEI\">Micro loan network</a>Up more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAIX\">Fluency theory</a>It rose by more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EZGO\">E-Dianhang</a>rose by more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNET\">China network carrier line</a>rose by more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIOT\">Yunmi Technology</a>rose by more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCM\">Cheetah Mobile</a>Renren Company rose by more than 2%, Weibo rose by more than 1%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily Excellent Fresh</a>It closed flat.</p><p>3. European stocks closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index rose more than 13% in the first half of this year</p><p>European stocks rose strongly in the first half of 2021, but fell slightly on Wednesday (June 30), the last trading day of the second quarter, as investors were amid ongoing concerns over Covid and rising inflation.</p><p>The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed down 3.53 points, or 0.77%, at 452.84. However, the stock index has still risen by more than 13% so far this year; Andy Haldane, chief economist at the Bank of England, said it was \"uneasy\" about the BoE's nearly £1 trillion balance sheet. The data suggests that the (UK) economy is changing rapidly. It is expected that UK inflation could end the year closer to 4% (rather than 3%), presenting policymakers with the biggest challenge since the pound's crash in 1992.</p><p>4. The six consecutive drops in U.S. crude oil inventories pushed U.S. oil to close 0.7%! A cumulative surge of more than 51% in the first half of the year</p><p>The price of WIT futures in the United States rose by 0.7% to close at $73.47 per barrel, rising by 24.2% in the second quarter and more than 51% in the first half of the year; International Brent oil prices rose 0.5% to close at $74.62 a barrel, up 18.2% in the second quarter and 45% in the first half of the year.</p><p>5. The price of gold closed up 0.5%, but it fell by more than 7% in June! Biggest monthly decline in 8 years</p><p>Gold futures rose by 0.5% to close at $1,771.60 an ounce, but fell by more than 7% in June, the largest monthly decline in eight years, as the US dollar exchange rate rose by more than 2% this month.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. Kaplan of the Federal Reserve said that the market knew that the reduction was coming, but it was only a question of when</p><p>Robert Kaplan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said the tapering of central bank asset purchases should be \"gradual\", and he reiterated the view that it would be prudent to start the process sooner rather than later.</p><p>2. In the face of high valuation and downsizing prospects, Wall Street warns that the best days of corporate bonds may be over</p><p>High valuations and the prospect of tapering stimulus measures by the Federal Reserve have a growing number of analysts and investors warning that the best days for the corporate bond market may be over.</p><p>The reopening of the economy, strong corporate earnings and unprecedented Fed support helped push the risk premium on high-grade and high-yield bonds to their lowest level in more than a decade in the first half. With downsizing discussions on the horizon and the prospect of a gradual recovery in U.S. Treasury Bond yields, many on Wall Street are warning that it is time for credit investors to take defensive steps.</p><p>3. Atlanta Fed President: It will take some time for the United States to meet employment targets</p><p>Raphael Bostic, president of the Atlanta Fed, said that while the U.S. has \"effectively fully recovered\" from the pandemic in a GDP sense, employment \"will take some time to go back\" and is now about 9 million to 10 million jobs below the pre-pandemic trend.</p><p>4. Bubble burst: U.S. lumber prices plunged more than 40% in June, the biggest monthly decline on record</p><p>The huge wood bubble of 2021 has burst.</p><p>Lumber prices have fallen sharply from the spring as supply has increased, speculative trading activity has cooled and demand for residential construction has slowed. Lumber futures fell 42% in June alone, their worst month since 1978. The construction commodity is down more than 13% year-to-date, its first decline since the first half of 2015.</p><p>Lumber prices peaked on May 7, hitting an all-time high of $1,670.50 per thousand board feet, more than six times higher than the low in April 2020.</p><p>5. The Fed's reverse repo demand rose to a record high of nearly $1 trillion at the end of the quarter</p><p>The scale of market demand for a key tool the Federal Reserve uses to help control short-term interest rates has soared to nearly $1 trillion, a record high.</p><p>New York Fed data showed that 90 participants deposited a total of $992 billion with the Federal Reserve on Wednesday through an overnight reverse repo facility, setting a fresh previous record high of $841.2 billion set on Tuesday. The number of counterparties was the largest since 2016, and the volume increase was the largest since June 17.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Raised Eurozone economic growth forecast for 2021 to 5.1% from 4.3%</p><p>Economists such as Reinhard Cluse wrote in a note to clients that relaxing epidemic restrictions would lead to a \"stronger\" rebound in the eurozone economy in the second and third quarters than previously expected; The economic contraction in the first quarter was less severe than expected, and fiscal support was stronger than expected; The 2022 growth forecast remains at 5.3%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>The economy is expected to reach pre-pandemic size in the fourth quarter of 2021, a quarter earlier than previously expected.</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2148843618\" target=\"_blank\">OPEC + Important Meeting is Imminent or Will Have Key Impact on Oil Prices</a></p><p>OPEC and its allies are preparing for a meeting that could be crucial for oil prices, while discussions continue on whether to continue increasing production.</p><p>Ahead of Thursday's decision on output policy for August and beyond, a familiar dynamic emerged from the organization's preliminary discussions. On the one hand, Russia and Kazakhstan have offered to increase supplies. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia and its Arab allies in the Gulf discussed a more cautious approach.</p><p>8. Fed Governor Waller joins ranks of decision-makers supporting priority tapering of MBS purchases</p><p>Fed officials who prefer to prioritize downsizing on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) when they start tapering asset purchases get a response from Governor Christopher Waller.</p><p>Fed officials have begun discussions about when and how to slow down plans to buy $80 billion in U.S. Treasury Bond and $40 billion in MBS a month, which are designed to help the economy recover from COVID. Because of the strong recovery in the U.S. economy, the downsizing timing may be earlier than officials expected at the end of 2020, perhaps before the end of the year, Waller said.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1145558758\" target=\"_blank\">Didi went public in the United States and raised $4.4 billion! Wall Street: Looking forward to the next growth chapter</a></p><p>Didi's IPO is since 2014<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It is the largest IPO of a Chinese company in the United States since the group went public in the United States to raise $25 billion.</p><p>Didi sold 316.8 million American Depositary Shares (ADS) at an IPO price of $14 per share, up from the previously planned 288 million shares, which would value Didi at approximately $73 billion on a fully diluted basis and $67.5 billion on a non-diluted basis.</p><p>DIDI's stock is already trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol \"DIDI,\" opening at $18, up nearly 29% from its IPO offering price of $14 per share.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1112995170\" target=\"_blank\">Luckin's share price soared by nearly 30% in the powder sheet market, with revenue of 3 billion yuan and loss of 3.16 billion yuan in 2019</a></p><p>Wednesday midday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUCKIN\">Luckin Coffee</a>The stock price soared by nearly 30% in the powder sheet market. The previously released financial report showed that the revenue in the fourth quarter of 2019 was 1.049.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125.6%; The net loss was 1,128.5 billion yuan, compared with a net loss of 669 million yuan in the fourth quarter of 2018.</p><p>June 30,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">Luckin Coffee</a>(China) Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as the \"Company\") reissued its audited 2019 annual financial report. According to the statement, according to the disclosure requirements of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the company will continue to actively fulfill its disclosure obligations, release the 2020 annual financial report as soon as possible, and gradually return to the normal financial report disclosure progress. The statement also shows that by the end of June this year, the number of Ruixing stores nationwide has exceeded 5,200, the cumulative consumer users have exceeded 75 million, and the monthly sales volume of raw coconut series has exceeded 10 million cups.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2148848730\" target=\"_blank\">China's first hip-hop stock Pupu Culture Logged Nasdaq closed sharply 405% on the first day</a></p><p>The first IPO of Xiamen Pupu Culture, the first Chinese hip-hop stock, opened at $12.26 in the United States, after the IPO offering price was previously given at $6.00 per ADS. The gains then widened, closing 405% higher at $30.3. Pop Culture announced pricing for its initial public offering earlier Wednesday, offering 6,200,000 shares of Class A common stock at $6 per share. The Company's Class A common shares have been approved for trading on the Nasdaq Global Market and are expected to commence public trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol \"CPOP\" on June 30, 2021 EST.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2148177168\" target=\"_blank\">Ding dong shopping once skyrocketed by nearly 100% Netizen: American retail investors regard Ding dong code as Didi?</a></p><p>Unexpectedly, the vegetable stocks listed in the United States ushered in a big reversal. In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily Excellent Fresh</a>After the listing broke, Dingdong Maicai greatly reduced the financing amount, and it broke on the day of listing. Fortunately, it rose slightly at the close. However, I didn't expect a shocking reversal on the evening of the 30th, once soaring by nearly 100%, during which it experienced two fuses!</p><p>On June 30th, the day after Dingdong Maicai went on the market, its increase expanded to 43%, triggering the fuse to suspend trading. Subsequently, Ding Dong's grocery shopping resumed trading and continued to expand the increase, reaching 77.72% to $41.8, triggering the fuse for the second time, and then continued trading. The stock price once soared by 94%, and the market value once stood at $10 billion!</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2148810005\" target=\"_blank\">Amazon Hard Strikes Back: New FTC Chairman Should Not Be Involved in Antitrust Investigation Against Us!</a></p><p>Lina Khan, the new head of the Federal Trade Commission, can be called an antitrust fighter. She has repeatedly issued articles saying<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Violated antitrust laws and should be split. Amazon said that this would expose the antitrust investigation against the company to an unfair trial, and hoped that Khan would not participate in the investigation. The analysis pointed out that it is at a critical time for Amazon and the FTC.</p><p>E-commerce giant Amazon filed a 25-page motion with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) on Wednesday, June 30, to let the FTC's new Democratic chair, Lina Khan, recuse himself from the regulator's antitrust investigation into Amazon.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last Night This Morning: Another S&P High! Didi's debut surges higher and falls back</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast Night This Morning: Another S&P High! Didi's debut surges higher and falls back\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-01 07:41</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Abstract: U.S. stocks closed mixed on Wednesday, and the S&P index hit another record closing high; U.S. crude oil inventories dropped 6 times in a row, pushing U.S. oil to close up 0.7%! A cumulative surge of more than 51% in the first half of the year; Didi went public in the U.S., raising $4.4 billion, and opened at $18, up nearly 29% from the IPO offering price of $14 per share. Overseas markets</p><p>1. Closing: The three major U.S. stock indexes all rose by more than 12% in the first half of the year</p><p>U.S. stocks closed mixed on Wednesday, with the S&P hitting another record closing high. The three major stock indexes all rose more than 12% in the first half of the year. The market is evaluating the June ADP employment data versus the May second-hand home sales signing report, and awaits more economic data on the labor market, such as non-farm payrolls. The Dow closed up 210.22 points, or 0.61%, at 34,502.51; The Nasdaq fell 24.38 points, or 0.17%, to 14,503.95 points; The S&P 500 rose 5.70 points, or 0.13%, to 4,297.50.</p><p>Didi closed 1.4% higher. The company determined to set the U.S. IPO price at the top of the guidance range of $14/ADS, which is at the upper price limit of the offering range of $13-14, which means that the company is valued at more than $67 billion.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">ding-dong</a>Grocery shopping closed sharply higher. Yesterday, the first hang rose slightly by 0.09%, and once broke in the session.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>The offer price of Hong Kong IPO was determined to be HK$165 per share, and trading began on July 7th.</p><p>2. Popular Chinese stocks closed with mixed ups and downs on Wednesday, and once rose by more than 20% in the intraday session</p><p>Popular Chinese stocks closed with mixed gains and losses on Wednesday. Didi, the first car-hailing stock in China, was officially listed on the New York Stock Exchange, with an intraday increase of more than 20%, and finally closed up 1%; Pupu Culture, the first hip-hop stock in China, officially landed on Nasdaq, triggering fuse blowers many times during the session, and finally closed by 405%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">ding-dong</a>Grocery rose by nearly 63% the next day after its listing, and once rose by nearly 100% in the intraday session.</p><p>Manbang rose by more than 26%, Ruixing powder list rose by more than 22%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MTC\">Haichuan Securities</a>It rose by more than 11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEI\">Micro loan network</a>Up more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAIX\">Fluency theory</a>It rose by more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EZGO\">E-Dianhang</a>rose by more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNET\">China network carrier line</a>rose by more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIOT\">Yunmi Technology</a>rose by more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCM\">Cheetah Mobile</a>Renren Company rose by more than 2%, Weibo rose by more than 1%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily Excellent Fresh</a>It closed flat.</p><p>3. European stocks closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index rose more than 13% in the first half of this year</p><p>European stocks rose strongly in the first half of 2021, but fell slightly on Wednesday (June 30), the last trading day of the second quarter, as investors were amid ongoing concerns over Covid and rising inflation.</p><p>The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed down 3.53 points, or 0.77%, at 452.84. However, the stock index has still risen by more than 13% so far this year; Andy Haldane, chief economist at the Bank of England, said it was \"uneasy\" about the BoE's nearly £1 trillion balance sheet. The data suggests that the (UK) economy is changing rapidly. It is expected that UK inflation could end the year closer to 4% (rather than 3%), presenting policymakers with the biggest challenge since the pound's crash in 1992.</p><p>4. The six consecutive drops in U.S. crude oil inventories pushed U.S. oil to close 0.7%! A cumulative surge of more than 51% in the first half of the year</p><p>The price of WIT futures in the United States rose by 0.7% to close at $73.47 per barrel, rising by 24.2% in the second quarter and more than 51% in the first half of the year; International Brent oil prices rose 0.5% to close at $74.62 a barrel, up 18.2% in the second quarter and 45% in the first half of the year.</p><p>5. The price of gold closed up 0.5%, but it fell by more than 7% in June! Biggest monthly decline in 8 years</p><p>Gold futures rose by 0.5% to close at $1,771.60 an ounce, but fell by more than 7% in June, the largest monthly decline in eight years, as the US dollar exchange rate rose by more than 2% this month.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. Kaplan of the Federal Reserve said that the market knew that the reduction was coming, but it was only a question of when</p><p>Robert Kaplan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said the tapering of central bank asset purchases should be \"gradual\", and he reiterated the view that it would be prudent to start the process sooner rather than later.</p><p>2. In the face of high valuation and downsizing prospects, Wall Street warns that the best days of corporate bonds may be over</p><p>High valuations and the prospect of tapering stimulus measures by the Federal Reserve have a growing number of analysts and investors warning that the best days for the corporate bond market may be over.</p><p>The reopening of the economy, strong corporate earnings and unprecedented Fed support helped push the risk premium on high-grade and high-yield bonds to their lowest level in more than a decade in the first half. With downsizing discussions on the horizon and the prospect of a gradual recovery in U.S. Treasury Bond yields, many on Wall Street are warning that it is time for credit investors to take defensive steps.</p><p>3. Atlanta Fed President: It will take some time for the United States to meet employment targets</p><p>Raphael Bostic, president of the Atlanta Fed, said that while the U.S. has \"effectively fully recovered\" from the pandemic in a GDP sense, employment \"will take some time to go back\" and is now about 9 million to 10 million jobs below the pre-pandemic trend.</p><p>4. Bubble burst: U.S. lumber prices plunged more than 40% in June, the biggest monthly decline on record</p><p>The huge wood bubble of 2021 has burst.</p><p>Lumber prices have fallen sharply from the spring as supply has increased, speculative trading activity has cooled and demand for residential construction has slowed. Lumber futures fell 42% in June alone, their worst month since 1978. The construction commodity is down more than 13% year-to-date, its first decline since the first half of 2015.</p><p>Lumber prices peaked on May 7, hitting an all-time high of $1,670.50 per thousand board feet, more than six times higher than the low in April 2020.</p><p>5. The Fed's reverse repo demand rose to a record high of nearly $1 trillion at the end of the quarter</p><p>The scale of market demand for a key tool the Federal Reserve uses to help control short-term interest rates has soared to nearly $1 trillion, a record high.</p><p>New York Fed data showed that 90 participants deposited a total of $992 billion with the Federal Reserve on Wednesday through an overnight reverse repo facility, setting a fresh previous record high of $841.2 billion set on Tuesday. The number of counterparties was the largest since 2016, and the volume increase was the largest since June 17.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Raised Eurozone economic growth forecast for 2021 to 5.1% from 4.3%</p><p>Economists such as Reinhard Cluse wrote in a note to clients that relaxing epidemic restrictions would lead to a \"stronger\" rebound in the eurozone economy in the second and third quarters than previously expected; The economic contraction in the first quarter was less severe than expected, and fiscal support was stronger than expected; The 2022 growth forecast remains at 5.3%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>The economy is expected to reach pre-pandemic size in the fourth quarter of 2021, a quarter earlier than previously expected.</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2148843618\" target=\"_blank\">OPEC + Important Meeting is Imminent or Will Have Key Impact on Oil Prices</a></p><p>OPEC and its allies are preparing for a meeting that could be crucial for oil prices, while discussions continue on whether to continue increasing production.</p><p>Ahead of Thursday's decision on output policy for August and beyond, a familiar dynamic emerged from the organization's preliminary discussions. On the one hand, Russia and Kazakhstan have offered to increase supplies. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia and its Arab allies in the Gulf discussed a more cautious approach.</p><p>8. Fed Governor Waller joins ranks of decision-makers supporting priority tapering of MBS purchases</p><p>Fed officials who prefer to prioritize downsizing on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) when they start tapering asset purchases get a response from Governor Christopher Waller.</p><p>Fed officials have begun discussions about when and how to slow down plans to buy $80 billion in U.S. Treasury Bond and $40 billion in MBS a month, which are designed to help the economy recover from COVID. Because of the strong recovery in the U.S. economy, the downsizing timing may be earlier than officials expected at the end of 2020, perhaps before the end of the year, Waller said.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1145558758\" target=\"_blank\">Didi went public in the United States and raised $4.4 billion! Wall Street: Looking forward to the next growth chapter</a></p><p>Didi's IPO is since 2014<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It is the largest IPO of a Chinese company in the United States since the group went public in the United States to raise $25 billion.</p><p>Didi sold 316.8 million American Depositary Shares (ADS) at an IPO price of $14 per share, up from the previously planned 288 million shares, which would value Didi at approximately $73 billion on a fully diluted basis and $67.5 billion on a non-diluted basis.</p><p>DIDI's stock is already trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol \"DIDI,\" opening at $18, up nearly 29% from its IPO offering price of $14 per share.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1112995170\" target=\"_blank\">Luckin's share price soared by nearly 30% in the powder sheet market, with revenue of 3 billion yuan and loss of 3.16 billion yuan in 2019</a></p><p>Wednesday midday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUCKIN\">Luckin Coffee</a>The stock price soared by nearly 30% in the powder sheet market. The previously released financial report showed that the revenue in the fourth quarter of 2019 was 1.049.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125.6%; The net loss was 1,128.5 billion yuan, compared with a net loss of 669 million yuan in the fourth quarter of 2018.</p><p>June 30,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">Luckin Coffee</a>(China) Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as the \"Company\") reissued its audited 2019 annual financial report. According to the statement, according to the disclosure requirements of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the company will continue to actively fulfill its disclosure obligations, release the 2020 annual financial report as soon as possible, and gradually return to the normal financial report disclosure progress. The statement also shows that by the end of June this year, the number of Ruixing stores nationwide has exceeded 5,200, the cumulative consumer users have exceeded 75 million, and the monthly sales volume of raw coconut series has exceeded 10 million cups.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2148848730\" target=\"_blank\">China's first hip-hop stock Pupu Culture Logged Nasdaq closed sharply 405% on the first day</a></p><p>The first IPO of Xiamen Pupu Culture, the first Chinese hip-hop stock, opened at $12.26 in the United States, after the IPO offering price was previously given at $6.00 per ADS. The gains then widened, closing 405% higher at $30.3. Pop Culture announced pricing for its initial public offering earlier Wednesday, offering 6,200,000 shares of Class A common stock at $6 per share. The Company's Class A common shares have been approved for trading on the Nasdaq Global Market and are expected to commence public trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol \"CPOP\" on June 30, 2021 EST.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2148177168\" target=\"_blank\">Ding dong shopping once skyrocketed by nearly 100% Netizen: American retail investors regard Ding dong code as Didi?</a></p><p>Unexpectedly, the vegetable stocks listed in the United States ushered in a big reversal. In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily Excellent Fresh</a>After the listing broke, Dingdong Maicai greatly reduced the financing amount, and it broke on the day of listing. Fortunately, it rose slightly at the close. However, I didn't expect a shocking reversal on the evening of the 30th, once soaring by nearly 100%, during which it experienced two fuses!</p><p>On June 30th, the day after Dingdong Maicai went on the market, its increase expanded to 43%, triggering the fuse to suspend trading. Subsequently, Ding Dong's grocery shopping resumed trading and continued to expand the increase, reaching 77.72% to $41.8, triggering the fuse for the second time, and then continued trading. The stock price once soared by 94%, and the market value once stood at $10 billion!</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2148810005\" target=\"_blank\">Amazon Hard Strikes Back: New FTC Chairman Should Not Be Involved in Antitrust Investigation Against Us!</a></p><p>Lina Khan, the new head of the Federal Trade Commission, can be called an antitrust fighter. She has repeatedly issued articles saying<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Violated antitrust laws and should be split. Amazon said that this would expose the antitrust investigation against the company to an unfair trial, and hoped that Khan would not participate in the investigation. The analysis pointed out that it is at a critical time for Amazon and the FTC.</p><p>E-commerce giant Amazon filed a 25-page motion with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) on Wednesday, June 30, to let the FTC's new Democratic chair, Lina Khan, recuse himself from the regulator's antitrust investigation into Amazon.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133219370","content_text":"摘要：美股周三收盘涨跌不一，标普指数再创收盘历史新高；美国原油库存6连降推动美油收涨0.7％！上半年累计飙升逾51％；滴滴赴美上市，筹资44亿美元，开盘价为18美元，与每股14美元的IPO发行价相比上涨近29%。\n\n海外市场\n1、收盘：上半年美股三大股指涨幅均超12%\n美股周三收盘涨跌不一，标普指数再创收盘历史新高。三大股指上半年涨幅均超过12%。市场正在评估6月ADP就业数据与5月二手房销售签约报告，并等待非农就业等更多有关劳动力市场的经济数据。道指收盘上涨210.22点，或0.61%，报34502.51点；纳指跌24.38点，或0.17%，报14503.95点；标普500指数涨5.70点，或0.13%，报4297.50点。\n滴滴收高1.4%。该公司确定将美股IPO价格定在指导区间顶部14美元/ADS，位于13-14美元的发行区间价格上限，这意味着公司估值超过670亿美元。叮咚买菜大幅收高。昨日首挂微涨0.09%，盘中一度破发。小鹏汽车港股IPO发售价确定为每股165港元，7月7日开始交易。\n2、热门中概股周三收盘涨跌不一 滴滴盘中一度涨超20%\n热门中概股周三收盘涨跌不一，中概网约车第一股滴滴正式在纽交所上市，盘中涨幅一度超过20%，最终收涨1%；中国嘻哈第一股普普文化正式登陆纳斯达克，盘中多次触发熔断，最终收盘飙升405%；叮咚买菜上市次日涨近63%，盘中一度大涨近100%。\n满帮涨超26%，瑞兴粉单涨超22%，海川证券涨超11%，微贷网涨超10%，流利说涨超9%，易电行涨超7%，中网载线涨超4%，知乎、云米科技涨超3%，猎豹移动、人人公司涨超2%，微博涨超1%，每日优鲜收盘持平。\n3、欧股周三收盘小幅下跌 泛欧斯托克600指数今年上半年涨超13%\n欧洲股市在2021年上半年强劲上涨，但在第二季度最后一个交易日，即周三（6月30日）小幅下跌，原因投资者是对新冠疫情和通胀上升的持续担忧。\n泛欧斯托克600指数收盘下跌3.53点，跌幅0.77%，报452.84点。不过，该股指今年迄今仍累计涨超13%；英国央行首席经济学家Andy Haldane表示，对英国央行近1万亿英镑的资产负债表感到“不安”。数据表明（英国）经济正在迅速变化。预计年末英国通胀率可能接近4%（而非3%），给决策者带来1992年英镑崩盘以来的最大挑战。\n4、美国原油库存6连降推动美油收涨0.7％！上半年累计飙升逾51％\n美国WIT期货价格上涨0.7%，报收于每桶73.47美元，第二季度累涨24.2%，上半年累涨逾51%；国际布伦特油价上涨0.5%，报收于每桶74.62美元，第二季度累涨18.2%，上半年累涨45%。\n5、金价收涨0.5％，但6月累计大跌逾7％！创8年以来最大单月跌幅\n黄金期货价格上涨0.5%，报收于每盎司1771.60美元，但6月累跌逾7%，创8年以来最大单月跌幅，因美元汇率本月累涨2%以上。\n国际宏观\n1、美联储卡普兰称市场知道减码即将到来，只是何时的问题\n达拉斯联邦储备银行行长卡普兰（Robert Kaplan）表示，缩减央行资产购买规模应该是“逐步进行的”，他还重申了启动这个进程宜早不宜迟将是审慎之举的观点。\n2、面对高昂估值和减码前景 华尔街警告企业债最好日子或已过去\n高昂估值和美联储逐步缩减刺激措施的前景让越来越多分析师和投资者发出警告：企业债市场最好的日子可能已经过去。\n经济重开、强劲的公司盈利和前所未有的美联储支持，帮助将高等级和高收益债券的风险溢价在上半年推至十多年来最低水平。随着减码讨论的即将到来，以及美国国债收益率逐步回升的前景，华尔街许多人士警告称，信贷投资者是时候采取防御措施了。\n3、亚特兰大联储行长：美国需要一些时间才能达到就业目标\n亚特兰大联储银行行长博斯蒂克(Raphael Bostic)说，虽然从国内生产总值意义上美国已从疫情中“实际上完全恢复过来”，但就业“需要一些时间才能回去”，现在比疫情前趋势低约900万到1000万个就业岗位。\n4、泡沫破裂：美木材价格6月份暴跌逾40% 创有记录以来最大单月跌幅\n2021年巨大的木材泡沫已经破灭。\n随着供应增加、投机交易活动降温和住宅建筑需求的放缓，木材价格已较春季时大幅回落。木材期货仅在6月份就下跌了42%，创下1978年以来最糟糕的一个月。该建筑商品今年迄今下跌超过13%，为2015年上半年以来首次下跌。\n木材价格在5月7日达到顶峰，创下每千板英尺1670.50美元的历史新高，比2020年4月时的低点高出六倍多。\n5、美联储逆回购需求量在季末升至近1万亿美元 创纪录新高\n市场对美联储用来帮助控制短期利率的一项关键工具的需求规模飙升至近1万亿美元，创纪录新高。\n纽约联储数据显示，90家参与者周三通过隔夜逆回购工具向美联储存放了总计9920亿美元资金，刷新周二创下的8412亿美元前纪录高位。交易对手数量为2016年以来最多，成交量增幅为6月17日以来最大。\n6、瑞银将欧元区2021年经济增长预期从4.3%上调至5.1%\nReinhard Cluse等经济学家在给客户的报告中写道，放宽防疫限制会导致第二季度和第三季度欧元区经济反弹比先前预期的“强一些”；第一季度的经济萎缩没有预期严重，财政支持强于预期；2022年增长预测保持在5.3%。\n瑞银预计经济将在2021年第四季度达到疫情前规模，比此前预期早一个季度。\n7、OPEC+重要会议在即 或将对油价产生关键影响\nOPEC及其盟国正准备召开一场可能对油价至关重要的会议，而关于是否继续增产的讨论仍在继续。\n在周四对8月及以后的产出政策做出决定之前，该组织在初步讨论中出现了一种熟悉的动态。一方面，俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦提出增加供应。另一方面，沙特阿拉伯及其海湾的阿拉伯盟友讨论了更谨慎的做法。\n8、美联储理事Waller加入支持优先缩减MBS购买的决策官员行列\n倾向于在开始缩减资产购买时优先减码抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）的美联储官员们获得了理事Christopher Waller的响应。\n美联储官员已经开始讨论何时以及如何放缓每月购买800亿美元美国国债和400亿美元MBS的计划，这些计划旨在帮助经济从新冠疫情中恢复。Waller表示，由于美国经济强劲复苏，减码时机可能比官员们在2020年底的预期要早，或许会在年底之前开始。\n公司新闻\n1、滴滴赴美上市，筹资44亿美元！华尔街：期待下一个增长篇章\n滴滴IPO是自2014年阿里巴巴集团赴美上市筹集250亿美元资金以来，中国公司在美国规模最大的一次IPO交易。\n滴滴以每股14美元的IPO价格出售了3.168亿股美国存托股票（ADS），高于此前计划的2.88亿股，这将使滴滴在完全稀释的基础上估值约为730亿美元，在非稀释的基础上估值为675亿美元。\n滴滴的股票已经以“DIDI”为代码在纽约证券交易所挂牌交易，开盘价为18美元，与每股14美元的IPO发行价相比上涨近29%。\n2、瑞幸股价在粉单市场暴涨近30％，2019年营收30亿元、亏损31.6亿\n周三午盘，瑞幸咖啡股价在粉单市场暴涨近30%，此前公布的财报显示，2019年四季度营收10.499亿元，同比增长125.6%；净亏损11.285亿元，相比之下2018年四季度净亏损6.69亿元。\n6月30日，瑞幸咖啡 (中国) 有限公司（以下简称“公司”）补发了经审计的2019年年度财务报告。声明称，根据美国证监会的披露要求，公司将持续积极履行披露义务，尽快发布2020年年度财务报告，并逐渐恢复至正常财报披露进度。声明还显示，截至今年6月底，瑞幸全国门店数已超过5200家，累计消费用户已突破7500万，生椰系列单月销量超1000万杯。\n3、中国嘻哈第一股普普文化登录纳斯达克 首日收盘大幅飙405％\n中国嘻哈第一股厦门普普文化美国IPO首日开盘报12.26美元，此前给出的IPO发行价为每份ADS 6.00美元。随后涨幅进一步扩大，截至收盘上涨405%，报30.3美元。普普文化周三稍早宣布其首次公开发行定价，以每股6美元价格发行6,200,000股A类普通股。公司的A类普通股已获准在纳斯达克全球市场交易，并预计于美国东部时间2021年6月30日在纳斯达克开始公开交易，股票代码为“CPOP”。\n4、叮咚买菜一度暴涨近100% 网友：美国散户把叮咚代码当成了滴滴？\n万万没想到，在美国上市的卖菜股迎来大逆转。在每日优鲜上市破发后，叮咚买菜大幅缩小融资额，上市当天一度破发，所幸收盘的时候微涨，但没想到30日晚间，来了一个惊天逆转，一度暴涨近100%，期间经历了两次熔断！\n6月30日，叮咚买菜上市次日，其涨幅扩大至43%，触发熔断暂停交易。随后，叮咚买菜恢复交易继续扩大涨幅，涨幅达到77.72%，报41.8美元，二度触发熔断，随后继续交易。股价一度暴涨94%，市值一度站上100亿美元！\n5、亚马逊硬气反击：FTC新任主席不应参与对我们的反垄断调查！\n美国联邦贸易委员会新任一把手Lina Khan堪称反垄断斗士，屡次发文称亚马逊违反了反垄断法且应被分拆。亚马逊称这会令针对公司的反垄断调查面临不公审判，希望Khan不要参与调查。分析指出，目前正值亚马逊和FTC的关键时刻。\n电商巨头亚马逊在6月30日周三向美国联邦贸易委员会（FTC）提交了一份长达25页的动议，申请让FTC新任民主党主席Lina Khan回避该监管机构对亚马逊的反垄断调查。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DDG":0.9,"CLmain":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"QMmain":0.9,"USO":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"SCO":0.9,"DWT":0.9,"DUG":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9,"DWTIF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158951402,"gmtCreate":1625125441906,"gmtModify":1703736621412,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9b8f75db4c14f22597f42cb3752e117","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584066196704033","idStr":"3584066196704033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/158951402","repostId":"1154941861","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154941861","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625103381,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154941861?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-01 09:36","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Investment strategy of Hong Kong stocks in the second half of the year! Hang Seng Index has a chance to challenge this round of new highs","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154941861","media":"学恒的海外观察","summary":"从成长性看，科创与周期占优;从中报业绩看，周期更佳;从估值看，大金融更有新引力。\n\n摘要\n全球：讨论TAPER尚早，美股依然在慢牛中\n尽管Taper的声音不绝于耳，但靴子落地并非易事：一方面，美国短期","content":"<p>From the perspective of growth, science and technology innovation and cycle dominate; From the interim report performance, the cycle is better; From the valuation point of view, big finance has new attraction.<b>Abstract</b></p><p><b>Global: Early to Discuss TAPER, U.S. Stocks Still in Slow Bull</b></p><p>Although Taper's voice is endless, it is not easy for boots to land: on the one hand, the short-term GDP, CPI, consumption, housing prices and other data in the United States are constantly rising; on the other hand, the decline of real hourly wages, the slow recovery of jobs, the high proportion of stocks in residents' wealth, and the negative impact of the Biden administration's tax increase on corporate investment and recruitment need to be fully considered by the Federal Reserve. Therefore, we don't think Taper is an overnight achievement, and the preliminary judgment will only have a clearer signal in Q4 2021/Q1 2022; The yield of U.S. bonds rose too fast at the beginning of the year, fully digesting the impact of inflation. Although we judge that the yield is still fluctuating upward, we believe that 1.9-2.0% is the threshold for U.S. stocks to turn. Based on the earnings in 2022, below 4,500 points (our target level for this round of US stock bull market), S&P still runs in the valuation framework of the past decade and is not significantly overvalued.</p><p><b>Domestic: The market around the second quarterly report has begun</b></p><p>The upward trend of medium-and long-term loans to enterprises proves that the economic cycle is still expanding. We preliminarily judge that the output (industrial added value year-on-year) and M1 year-on-year will start to rebound in June and July.</p><p>From June, CPI and PPI will converge, meaning that manufacturing earnings will improve. With the gradual upward trend of CPI, the confidence of the market will continue to be improved.</p><p>Taking the past decade as a reference, the current valuation of A shares is not high, and the valuation of most broad-based indexes (2022) is only the average level. Therefore, we believe that in the period of economic cycle expansion, the market is expected to break through the current new high, with a target of 4200-4300 points in the second half of the year.</p><p>From the perspective of growth, science and technology innovation and cycle dominate; From the interim report performance, the cycle is better; From the valuation point of view, big finance has new attraction.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Investment Advice: Long-standing Momentum, Challenging New Highs</b></p><p>We adjust the target range of 31,000-32,000 points of the Hang Seng Index in 2021, which means that the Hang Seng Index has the opportunity to challenge this round of new highs;</p><p>We believe that while the market goes up in the second half of the year, it will also be accompanied by a rotation situation. The sectors with better semi-annual reports or other fundamentals are mainly textiles and clothing, medicine, metals and energy. Secondly, the interim reports of Hang Seng Technology and Big Finance are expected to meet expectations and the stock price is oversold, which will also have obvious valuation repair.</p><p>After the second quarterly report or Q4, the valuation of some sectors is too high, coupled with the uncertainty of taper and funds at the end of the year, which makes it impossible to continuously improve the risk appetite. At this time, we should pay attention to resource stocks whose prices may continue to rise, bank stocks with low valuation, gaming stocks with lagging recovery expectations, telecom operators and local stocks in Hong Kong with less impact on the economic cycle.</p><p><b>Risk warning</b></p><p>The risk of a lower-than-expected macroeconomic recovery, the risk of repeated pandemics, the uncertainty of Sino-US trade relations, and the risk of technology wars.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>1. Global: It's too early to discuss TAPER, and U.S. stocks are still in a slow bull</b></p><p><b>1. By the end of the year, the vaccination rate in some countries will exceed 70%</b></p><p>The global new epidemic situation has recently stabilized at 300,000-400,000 cases per day, a significant decrease compared with the beginning of the year, among which the new cases in major developed countries have decreased significantly compared with the beginning of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ef09015d57bc577bb7a93bb846c2381\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4256b27b5673e8fb532e714b91541b91\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>in May and June, according to the data of our world in data, the vaccination rate (one dose) in some countries has accelerated significantly. At the current rate, before winter, the vaccination rate in most countries with conditions can exceed 70%, that is, the WHO recognized<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>Level of vaccination rate for immunization effects. The rate of vaccination in China is even more alarming. It has now exceeded 1 billion doses, and with 20 million vaccinations per day, it is also expected to reach a vaccination rate of more than 70% by the end of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba455f4b2fc4f3e96e0539d81b0cb3f3\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. The World Bank revised the global GDP growth rate up to 5.6%</b></p><p><b>1) Upward revision of the global economy in 2021</b></p><p>In January, the World Bank forecast global GDP growth to be only 4.1%. In June, the World Bank revised global GDP growth upward to 5.6%, the strongest recovery from a recession in 80 years, driven largely by 6.8% growth in the US and 8.5% growth in China. The IMF is more optimistic, believing that global GDP growth will reach 6% (its forecast at the beginning of the year was 5.15%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/507d0e153840bb4f705f60f90a813461\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Both of them have similar expectations for China's economic growth. The World Bank expects China's GDP growth rate in 2021 to be 8.5%, and the IMF expects it to be 8.4%; The World Bank expects U.S. GDP growth to be 6.8% in 2021, and the IMF expects 6.4%.</p><p><b>2) The GDP gap between China and the United States has narrowed</b></p><p>During the epidemic, China's GDP continued to grow, while the GDP of the United States declined, which narrowed the GDP gap between China and the United States. If the gap is expressed by (United States-China) /United States, the GDP gap between China and the United States was 30% in 2020. The IMF estimates that, regardless of the impact of RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, the GDP gap between China and the United States will narrow to 16% by 2026, which was 60% in 2010 and 40% in 2016.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b444982fe1c0d1748b4110b2b21b14e4\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Against the background of narrowing the GDP gap between the two countries, the U.S. government has frequently released various pressures on China since Biden took office as president of the United States. On June 8, the U.S. Senate passed the U.S. Innovation and Competition Act of 2021, which CNN said is intended to invest more than $200 billion in U.S. technology, science and research to counter China's growing influence.</p><p>On the other hand, the 2021 White Paper on American Enterprises in China released by AmCham-China in June shows that the Chinese market remains a strong attraction for American companies. More than half (52%) of U.S. companies in China mentioned that the number one business opportunity in China was \"the growth of domestic consumption and the rise of an increasingly large wealthy middle class\", more than two-thirds of U.S. companies regarded China as a priority market, and 85% did not intend to relocate manufacturing or procurement processes outside China. The white paper also shows that nearly 61 percent of U.S. companies believe China will continue to open its market to foreign investment. The sense of gain of American enterprises in China has been further enhanced. For example, in the financial field, American companies have obtained the license to carry out all-round business in China; In food and agriculture, China has revised regulations to allow more American products into China, among other things.</p><p><b>3. The US economic cycle is still in the expansion stage</b></p><p><b>1) Enlightenment from the U.S. Economic Framework: Balance between Inflation and Stagflation</b></p><p>In the economic framework of the United States, interest rate policy or personal income is transmitted to consumer expenditure, which takes two or three quarters. Then the rise of consumption will bring about the prosperity of industrial production and services, and the improvement of corporate profits, which will take another one or two quarters.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47a2af46ec117739d1459c097dde5dde\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Then, expecting the upward prosperity in the future, enterprises began to increase capital expenditure, and actively recruited workers (this is after 2-4 quarters), thus pushing inflation upward. At this time, the Federal Reserve intervened against inflation to ensure the healthy development of the economy.</p><p>In this system, if you intervene too late, it may make inflation grow; But if it intervenes too early, it will douse the recovering economy in its cradle. How to judge this rhythm has always been a \"big problem\". On the left side is inflation and on the right side is deflation.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>Must move carefully on the balance beam.</p><p><b>2) Some contradictions in the current U.S. economic data</b></p><p>On the one hand, the prosperity of consumption and output in the United States is undoubtedly on the rise: personal consumption expenditure is on the rise (also attributed to last year's low base), and the consumer confidence index has returned to the best level since the epidemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c984927723e729dc26b3d0bd56102c50\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Manufacturing PMI oscillated upward, with services PMI already surpassing pre-pandemic highs in May.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06899913e56c9f14274fd575748c7073\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The sales of existing houses have been at a new high in ten years year-on-year, and house prices have accelerated. Many media reports in the United States have reported the phenomenon of \"difficult to find a house\" and \"increasing the price of buying a house\" everywhere.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c22aaa51435ed2745ae7fe639f3f719f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, the market's expectations for the macroeconomic data of the United States have been revised upward for several months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/789c9420c8b167c7a431c7aaa52e412c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"251\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/545c4a3e4d8c168ad26cc85898a91521\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But on the other hand, behind the glamorous data, there are also many hidden worries:</p><p><b>One is the decline in real hourly wages.</b>As the real hourly wage determines the real purchasing power of consumers, in this economic recovery, due to the inability of supply-side production capacity to keep up in time and the upward trend of commodity prices caused by the excessive issuance of US dollars, CPI took the lead in strengthening, which made the nominal hourly wage rise and the real hourly wage decline. Historically, real hourly wage, as a reliable leading indicator of American residents' consumption (of course, this is mainly on the premise of relatively stable employment situation), is not clear at present.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5574774b629c3937a2d6c41738554902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, employment recovery still needs to be observed.</b>Covid has cost 22 million jobs in the U.S., according to the U.S. Department of Labor. So far, it has only recovered to pre-pandemic levels of 67%, and there is an 8 million job gap. As recently as April, new non-farm employment in the United States was significantly lower than market expectations, and May only met the low expectations. Some analysts believe that because of the money-casting subsidy, the income of low-income groups when they go to work is equivalent to that of not going to work, which makes some enterprises unable to find employees and finally closes down again. According to CNBC, in the past month, 25 states have announced that they will terminate their additional benefit programs during the pandemic before they officially expire on September 6th. Some states will stop paying additional federal unemployment benefits as early as June 12. These states are all led by Republican governors. They say additional unemployment benefits are causing unemployed workers to prefer to stay at home rather than look for work, which makes it difficult for companies to recruit workers to fill badly needed vacancies. Bradley, chief policy officer of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, argued: \"The disappointing jobs report clearly shows that paying people who don't work is dampening what should have been a stronger job market.\" The impact of stopping federal additional unemployment benefits on subsequent employment is overall positive, but the effect needs to be tracked.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28525bd8d2b0a12655fff844c305910b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The third is about the expectation that the Biden administration will raise taxes.</b>While we expect this plan to be quite difficult to implement, and in order to secure midterm elections, it is unlikely that the Democrats will do much on this issue before the 2022 midterm elections. However, the expectation of tax increases will affect the human resource planning of businesses to some extent. Clark, president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said there is a disagreement with the administration on the need to raise business taxes: \"The proposed tax increase plan will greatly harm American businesses and American working people. This is certainly not the time to put new barriers to economic recovery. The administration is right to advocate for infrastructure, and we want to do it with the government, but there are other ways to fund infrastructure plans.\" The U.S. Chamber of Commerce said it supports infrastructure investment, but prefers funding primarily through infrastructure royalties. McGinty, a spokesman for the American Retail Federation, said the organization opposed raising funds for infrastructure plans through corporate tax increases in a report to the U.S. Senate Finance Committee. In addition, McGinty, spokesman of the American Retail Industry Leaders Association, also said that the association's position against raising taxes on businesses has not changed.</p><p><b>Fourth, the proportion of the US stock market in residents' assets is too high, and the decline of the stock market will seriously dampen residents' consumption enthusiasm.</b>There are two types of wealth related to stock assets of American residents, one is direct investment, and the other is through pension plans (finally entering the stock market and bond market). Both of them account for an astonishing 57% of residents' wealth (at the highest level in history). Compared with Chinese residents' wealth, the largest category is real estate, which accounts for only 24% of American residents' assets. Historically, consumption and the stock market are mutually causal: the stock market falls → residents' wealth shrinks → consumption is more conservative → corporate profits fall → the stock market falls. At present, the total market capitalization of U.S. stocks is about $45 trillion, which is about 202% of the expected 2021 GDP of the United States ($22.2 trillion). According to Rastved's estimates in The Inescapable Economic Cycle, a decline in the stock market will have an impact coefficient of about 4% on GDP. That is, if the U.S. stock market falls by 20% (this is only a Kitchen cycle level adjustment), the negative effect of a single stock market decline on GDP can reach 202%*20%*4% = -1.6%, regardless of the extended effects such as shrinking capital expenditure, inventory impairment and real estate decline of enterprises. Generally speaking, in a large stock market decline (such as 1/3 to half), and the real estate market is also affected (such as 1/5 to 1/3), the comprehensive impact on the GDP of that year is about-15%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/382235a0385c82b548308426f12a5ca7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Fed Chairman Powell said at an FOMC press conference in April that the Fed \"<b>Will ensure that monetary policy continues to provide strong support for the economy until the recovery is completed</b>”。 Currently, investors expect the Fed to announce a QE taper at the annual meeting of global central banks at Jackson Hole in August. The latest Reuters survey also shows that the Federal Reserve may announce its strategy to cut its large-scale bond purchase program in August or September, but it is not expected to start cutting its monthly purchases until early next year.</p><p>And we still repeat this view: In the current U.S. economy, once TAPER is implemented, the situation of moderate recovery will likely end. Therefore, it is necessary for the Federal Reserve to continue to pay cautious attention to inflation (Q2/Q3) and employment data (June, July and August), especially the impact on employment after some state governments cancelled the bailout in July and August.</p><p><b>3) The flattening of U.S. debt shows that the market's expectation of inflation has been digested</b></p><p>Although the CPI and core CPI of the United States both reached a new high in May, the inflation expectation (10-year U.S. bond yield-10-year TIPS yield) fell, and the 10-year Treasury Bond yield of the United States oscillated flat, which all shows that the expectation of inflation has been digested by the market, and the next step is to continue to track the inflation level in the third quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcb17db63daecb5e450b90e31da6b24d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>We have quantitatively measured the key positions where the upward trend of U.S. bond yields in this round will have an impact on the stock market. The method is to observe the impact of the number and magnitude of rate hike in the historical interest rate hike cycle (the target interest rate of federal funds in this round remains unchanged, which is slightly different from history, but the upward trend of market interest rate is the same) on the peak of the stock market. We measured the result: The U.S. bull market came to an end when the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 1.9-2.0%.</p><p><b>4. The upward trend of commodities will continue</b></p><p>We are pleased to recall that in the annual strategy report released in 2019 before the launch of this round of commodities, we mentioned: \"The global mid-cycle-real estate cycle and commodity cycle are all in the expansion stage, and the short-cycle-Kitchen cycle has also hit a low point and turned to expansion. The combined resonance of the mid-cycle and the short-cycle will promote the rise of cyclical asset prices\". So far, our judgment that the global economy is in an expansion phase remains unchanged.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f69ac8fd633ab057903ac98c0ff9bd7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As the average expansion time of commodity cycle is 24-26 months, the upward trend of this round of commodities will end in the second quarter of 2022. In addition, we compared the relationship between commodity index and S&P 500. Similar to A shares, S&P 500 is ahead of CRB index by about 0-3 months (just like Shanghai Composite Index is ahead of PPI). Therefore, we preliminarily calculate that US stocks will rise to around the first quarter of 2022.</p><p>U.S. stocks are still running in the valuation framework of the past decade</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c409da511bbb7b9010d35341123123e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>With the upward revision of economic expectations, the S&P 500's net income was also revised upward. At present, the market expects that the growth rate of S&P 500EPS from 2021 to 2022 will be 40% and 9% respectively; The ROE was 19.7% and 19.4%, respectively; EPS was 194,211, respectively (compared to 170,197 at the end of last year when we wrote our strategy report, which was 14% and 7% higher, respectively).</p><p>As we have introduced, at present, the United States maintains a lower yield on U.S. bonds than before the epidemic. According to the PE ceiling of S&P 500 in 2008-2019, 21.4-21.5 times PE (excluding the extreme impact of the 2008 financial crisis and the 20-year epidemic), if the target price of S&P 500 is given, we can get:</p><p>SPX Price Target 2021=194*21.4=4151 pips;</p><p>If you take into account the valuation switch to 2022, you get:</p><p>SPX Price Target 2022=211*21.4=4515 pips;</p><p><b>Therefore, we believe that this year and next, before the S&P 500 fluctuates up to 4,500 points, US stocks will still run in the valuation channel of the last decade without being greatly overvalued. Of course, when talking about overvaluation, we must discuss U.S. bond yields, TAPER and QE, and the position of the economic cycle, which we have explained earlier.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c227e1cc13a265388c5f10645737f46\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, A shares: the market around the second quarterly report has begun</b></p><p><b>1. The upward trend of medium-and long-term loans to enterprises proves that the economy is still expanding</b></p><p>In May, M2 stopped declining year-on-year, and began to show the characteristics of stable bottom. Medium-and long-term loans continued to grow very steadily, indicating strong demand for manufacturing credit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d13ac00c05eda5dbb8e68726c0f726d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Dismantling social finance subjects, the recent obvious decline is local government special bonds, corporate bonds and trust loans. The downward background of corporate bonds is that this year, the central government required to resolve the hidden debt risks of local governments, and multi-departments jointly took action to strengthen supervision and curb the growth of hidden debt; This year, local government special bonds have decreased slightly by 280 billion yuan compared with last year. Referring to the recent new local government debt limit of 4,267.6 billion yuan issued by the Ministry of Finance in 2021 (including 800 billion yuan in general debt limit and 3,467.6 billion yuan in special debt limit), it is lower than the previous budget of 4,47 billion yuan approved by the Fourth Session of the 13th National People's Congress (including 3,75 billion yuan in special debt limit); The decline of trust loans is inevitable. This year is the last year of the transition period of the new asset management regulations, and the trust industry is still looking for transformation and innovation. From this point of view, this year's social financing is characterized by: the financing demand of government and local financing platforms has slowed down, the financing of real estate/trust has also been suppressed, and the loan demand of manufacturing industry is strong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f845a54283fd13c73447217a3dbe8b53\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>We estimate that M1 year-on-year and industrial added value year-on-year have either touched or approached the low of the whole year and will rise with the upward trend of the economic cycle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/533c0d730d72abbfdc5353dd14f6d770\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>M2 does not count fiscal deposits (May last year coincided with the peak period of fiscal deposits), so we think that the decline of social financing is more temporary than that of M2.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a462618d750770032e117dc050724701\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, domestic funds are relatively loose, MLF has not gone up since the epidemic last year, the yield of wealth management continues to decline, and the credit spread declines (AA +, AAA is more obvious than AA).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/403868625533e7493faa8e6a393fe62e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Starting from June, the gap between CPI and PPI will converge</b></p><p>In the first half of this year, PPI was under great upward pressure. During the tracking process in the previous months, we also felt that the upward trend of PPI repeatedly exceeded market expectations. Last May was the lowest point of PPI for the whole year, so in terms of form, since June, PPI has undoubtedly begun to decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f3ed224ba421077d14bb149aaadba9b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since the beginning of this year, CPI has been dragged down by the downward trend of pig prices this year, but according to subject observation, transportation and communication, education, culture and entertainment, housing, as well as food, tobacco and alcohol have all begun to improve significantly. We estimate that CPI will remain resilient and steadily upward in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e7d6b010c508c34a936f1c6c30c502f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But on the other hand, the downward trend of PPI represents the slowdown of inflationary pressure, which is conducive to the earnings repair of the manufacturing industry. But this does not mean that inflationary pressures are gone. Because in a commodity cycle, with the improvement of demand, the production capacity on the supply side can't be significantly expanded in a short period of time, and the current inventory of cyclical products is generally not high. With the de-inventory, there is still room for further upward movement in commodity prices.</p><p><b>3. The valuation of A shares is not high, and the plate where the interim report is expected to be updated is locked</b></p><p><b>1) On the whole, the current valuation of A shares is not high</b></p><p>Let's take the valuation level of the past ten years as a reference to observe the current valuation level of A shares.</p><p>The current valuation of Wind Full A is 20.3 times. If the valuation switching is considered, the PE level in 2022 will drop back to the average with the growth of performance. CSI 300 is currently valued at 14.5 times. If the valuation switching is considered, the PE level will also fall back to the average level in 2022 with the growth of performance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85ce88cba8d0e32d600ac041e40ba96e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The current valuation of Shanghai Composite Index is 14.2 times, which is at the average level. If the valuation switching is considered, the corresponding PE in 2022 will be lower than the average; The current valuation level of GEM is slightly higher by 59.0 times, but it is also below +1 standard deviation. Because the growth rate of GEM is higher, its corresponding PE in 2022 is lower than the average, taking into account the valuation switching.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00c5057cc381cafd3af77d267f468623\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The current valuation of CSI 500 is at a low level among all major broad-based indices, with a valuation of only-1 standard deviation on average, which is less than-1 standard deviation if the growth rate in 2022 is taken into account; The SSE 50 valuation level is at a relatively high level, slightly above the historical average given the growth in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6717030e153e34f4d57acbfb01d4b00\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>To sum up, from the ten-year cycle, the current valuation level of A shares is not high. Once the valuation switch is considered in the second half of the year, the current valuation is only the historical average. If we measure the upside of A shares, we measure it at the highest level of 16-16.2 times PE of the customary Shanghai Composite Index at the beginning of the year. Considering the factors including the valuation switch in 2022, the estimated upside target range is about 4200-4300 points. The above consideration is based on the fact that the expansion of the economic cycle has not yet ended, and the main driving force for the upward trend comes from performance improvement rather than valuation expansion.<b>From the perspective of broad-based index, CSI 500 is more attractive than CSI 300 and SSE 50.</b></p><p><b>2) From the perspective of growth, the performance growth rate of science and technology innovation and cycle this year is more obvious</b></p><p>From the observation of performance growth rate, this year's growth rate of science and technology innovation ranks first in the broad-based index, with a growth rate of 70% in 21 years compared with 20 years, followed by small market capitalization companies, National Securities 2000, CSI 1000, CSI 500 and GEM 50. Combined with the current valuation level and rebound, science and technology innovation board and CSI 500 are more cost-effective. In style, what still can't be ignored this year is the profit growth rate of cyclical industries, which is better than growth (74%) by 82% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a8427a42d4a8c2422e6397f9c3383f8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From the perspective of industry, in addition to last year's low-base transportation, media, consumer services and retail, nonferrous metals and black are the top industries this year, and computers, basic chemicals, electronics and automobiles are also the top industries.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7aa967da566899dc1b91a298dc9aa22\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3) From the perspective of expected adjustment, cyclical industries are more dominant</b></p><p>After the annual report (April 30th), Kechuang 50 and CSI 500 are expected to have the largest upward revision among all broad-based indexes, and the Shanghai Composite Index is also upward revised by 1%, ranking third. GEM, CSI 1000 and National Securities 2000 ranked in the bottom three respectively. Compared with styles, the performance of cyclical industries has the largest upward trend, while the growth has the largest downward revision. This is slightly contradictory to our observation in the previous table, that is, although growth stocks have the fastest growth rate, the performance has been revised downward since the annual report, indicating that the current upward trend of growth stocks is differentiated rather than universal, while the decline of cyclical industries is temporary. The second quarterly report is approaching, and we think the opportunities of cyclical industries will be more certain.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18b1a8759585b1503e5b5c338732eb47\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After comparing the annual report, the performance adjustment rankings are compared by industries as follows: steel, consumer services, automobiles, transportation, petroleum and petrochemicals rank first, machinery, non-ferrous metals, coal and light industry manufacturing are also raised to a certain extent, while commerce and retail, media, comprehensive, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, communication and computer rank last.</p><p>In this ranking, we think it is still necessary to discuss the prices of commodities. For example, if the prices of basic metals, coal and crude oil go up, it will bring profit pressure to the middle reaches of industries with sensitive raw materials such as steel, automobiles, machinery, light industry, chemicals and home appliances. If the prices in the upstream of the cycle are stable or downward, the profit growth rate of the above industries may continue to be revised upward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eab95b14ca44af05bd3574782eb630fb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Our attitude is: the expansion of this economic cycle is not over yet, and the incentive for the upward trend of commodity prices: the core variable of relatively limited capacity expansion for 7-10 consecutive years has not changed. Assuming that the downstream output continues to go up, the upward pressure of upstream raw materials will always exist. Therefore,<b>In terms of profit forecast of the sector, we tend to think that the interim results of non-ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and coal in the upstream of the partial cycle are more certain.</b></p><p><b>4) From the perspective of valuation, the valuation repair potential of big finance should not be ignored</b></p><p>According to the understanding of the economic cycle, when the CPI goes up and the market yield goes up, it is expected that the financial industry will be affected by the increase of interest spread and its profit will improve. Therefore, big finance with low valuation is expected to be repaired in the second half of the year. We observe the primary industry in the PE/PB quantile matrix. At present, the PB valuation of bank stocks is at the lowest level in history, and we expect that the ROE of the banking industry in Q2 this year will increase relatively obviously year-on-year (compared with the expected increase from Q2 last year). The insurance industry's premium income is poor this year, but because the sector has not performed in the past two years, the poor fundamentals have been fully digested in the stock price, and there is room for valuation repair in the second half of the year. Brokers have experienced a year of weak shock since July last year, and the current valuation is also very low (together with insurance below 10% of the historical quantile). Considering the advancement of the domestic registration system tide and the better asset quality of securities firms than insurance and banks, we believe that this sector will also perform well in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb102b56576b2cd57a6eae54e0b220\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Comprehensive growth, expected adjustment and valuation,<b>We are optimistic about science and technology innovation board, upstream cycle and big finance as the first choice recommendations in the second half of the year. At the same time, according to the previous calculation, the Shanghai Stock Exchange is expected to rise to the height of 4200-4300 points within the year.</b></p><p><b>3. Hong Kong stocks: gaining momentum for a long time, challenging new highs</b></p><p><b>1. Hang Seng Index is expected to break through this round of new highs in the second half of 2021</b></p><p>The market expects that the EPS growth rate of Hang Seng Index (HSI) will be 11% in 2021 and-2% in 2022. This performance is not as good as that of A shares, but its revenue side is not bad, with a year-on-year growth rate of 19% and 12%. The goal of some large Internet companies this year is still to pursue the growth rate of income rather than the profit end, which is part of the reason. In addition, the real estate and financial parts of the Hang Seng Index account for a relatively high proportion, which also drags down the growth of profits to some extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47d2c33a8ab907c4dbbc675ba9d18aff\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The chart below is the PB swing range of the Hang Seng Index (HSI) valuation over history. We use this to calculate the target level of Hang Seng Index in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecfb432d4084946f04aa13b02bf99f2e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the previous report, we explained that because the stability of net assets is better (compared with EPS and Dividend) from the historical volatility, we usually consider PB valuation or Dividend rate when predicting the low or high of Hang Seng Index. We use the increase in PB at each Kitchen cycle expansion and take the median to calculate the PB upper limit of the Hang Seng Index in the second half of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1790400270c6074c7d80d6f82d5782e6\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since 2002, the PB expansion of HSI in each Kitchen cycle has been 49%, 85%, 74%, 29% and 63% respectively, with a median of 63% and an average of 60%. We get that the PB cap of the Hang Seng Index in the second half of the year is 1.39 times.</p><p>PB2021 upper limit =0.87* (1+60%) =1.39</p><p>According to analysts' estimates of net assets of 21,784 points and 23,387 points in 2021-2022, the target level for the HSI is:</p><p>Neutral: 21784 (BPS2021) *1.39=30,374 points;</p><p>Optimistic (considering the valuation switch to 2022): 23,387 (BPS2022) *1.39=32,610 points.</p><p><b>Therefore, we judge that the target price of Hang Seng Index will run around 31,000-32,000 points in the second half of the year, that is, it has the potential to hit a new high in this round.</b></p><p><b>Review of the trend in the first half of the year</b></p><p>At the beginning of the year, we summarized five major directions in the Summary of Hong Kong Stocks in 2020: \"Looking forward to 2021, the direction of finding excess returns may be: 1. The new economy is still the main battlefield, especially the opportunity that the investment targets under the interference of anti-monopoly policies and U.S. policies will\" panic-wrong-kill-new high \"; 2. Sub-new shares will bring more investment clues; 3. The upward trend of risk appetite will help the valuation of large and small market capitalization converge; 4. With the recovery of the epidemic situation, the procyclical plate will narrow the performance difference between the plates; 5. The landing of the boots of the US ban on investment will bring opportunities for valuation repair of the listed companies. \"</p><p><b>review In the first half of this year, Hong Kong stocks went through three stages: rising, falling and rebounding.</b></p><p>The first stage is before the Spring Festival, when technology stocks and biotechnology stocks take the lead. At the highest, the Hang Seng Technology Index reached a 29% increase;</p><p>The second stage is from the Spring Festival to the beginning of May. Under the rapid rise of U.S. bond yields and the influence of Internet antitrust, the Hang Seng Technology Index pullback/retracement sharply, with the yield falling from 29% to-11%, and the Hang Seng Index falling below 28,000 points;</p><p>The third stage is from late May to June. With the stability of the yield of U.S. bonds and the continuous absorption of many influences of antitrust by the market, the major indexes began to rebound. The best performer was the biotechnology sector (25%), followed by local stocks in Hong Kong (9%), followed by Southbound (7%), with the HSCEI and Hang Seng Technology underperforming the Hang Seng Index.</p><p>1) From the perspective of mainland investors, Hong Kong stocks are a supplement to the A-share market, and Hang Seng Technology and Hang Seng Biotechnology are the two major tracks that investors are most concerned about. Last year, Hang Seng Technology's large increase, coupled with the influence of antitrust, brought some investors to take profits, while Hang Seng Biotechnology took over the baton and performed well. We believe that in the long run, the new economy will still be the main battlefield, and Hang Seng Technology and Biotechnology will perform well. In May, E Fund<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03032\">Hang Seng Technology ETF</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03088\">China Hang Seng Technology</a>ETF, Dacheng Hang Seng Technology ETF, Huaan Hang Seng Technology ETF, Huatai-PineBridge CSOP Hang Seng Technology ETF, Boshi Hang Seng Technology ETF and Harvest Hang Seng Technology ETF have all been released. Mainland investors can buy Hang Seng Technology Index through these ETFs, thus solving the similar problem that Hong Kong stocks don't cover<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The investment restrictions of a large number of stocks such as Baidu, JD.COM and Bilibili.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68eb45ddb4ce3535a01e50d120d05fbb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2) From the perspective of style, it can be seen that since the beginning of the year, if it has outperformed the Hang Seng Index, in terms of style, the positions are required to be concentrated in Hang Seng small-cap stocks, small-and medium-cap stocks and medium-cap stocks, rather than large-cap stocks and medium-and large-cap stocks. At present, the valuation of Hang Seng large-cap stocks and Hang Seng small-cap stocks is still converging. According to historical statistics, when the PB difference between them turns positive, it is the end point of valuation correction (and often the end point of bull market), which also shows that in the current market, opportunities far outweigh risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/243c73a9ab5bd7175cf2bbb9696c2a90\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>3) From the perspective of industry, in addition to the medical sector, the upstream of this year's cycle shines brightly. Among them, the performance of the energy industry ranked first, the raw materials industry ranked third, and the comprehensive industry and Hang Seng Industry also performed well. Lower-ranked sectors are essential consumption, information technology and finance. We are still very optimistic about resource products. As the prices of bulk commodities have risen greatly compared with last year, for example, the price of crude oil has risen to a new high since the epidemic, the CRB index has risen by 50% year-on-year, the copper price has risen by 93% year-on-year, and the aluminum price has risen by 65% year-on-year. Therefore, there is a high probability that the second quarterly reports of these sectors have a good quarterly performance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f39b662e4346eb7fe12c2a1c4e0ee3a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>4) According to the industry performance statistics of 524 companies in Hong Kong Stock Connect, coal has increased astonishingly, followed by iron and steel, basic chemicals, medicine, textiles and clothing, media, non-ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and the bottom-ranked sectors are mainly electric power equipment, building materials, catering and tourism, national defense and military industry, non-bank finance, home appliances, automobiles, comprehensive, food and beverage and other industries.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f41709bcfaf17d58d7bc64db1f58f10\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>5) From the perspective of the banned investment list, the income in the first half of the year is gratifying. We judged at the beginning of the year that the investment ban company would perform well this year. As of June 2021, the average gain of companies on the ban list was 35%, and the median was 19%, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index. Nevertheless, we believe that many of these companies, such as telecom operators and oil companies, are still valued at low levels and have considerable upside.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb224b98db6f930b71d86e0064aa51e2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1068\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Changes in market expectations: cycle dominance, catering/computer downward adjustment</b></p><p>Profit expectation: Compared with before and after the annual report, the net profit expectation of steel, military industry, petroleum and petrochemical, banking, home appliances, electronic components, construction, non-bank finance and other industries in 2021 is revised upward, while the performance of catering and tourism, computers, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, machinery, building materials, food and beverage, commerce and retail, communication and media sectors is revised downward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54a90ee526b9ce63212c201fa34bcf95\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Revenue expectation: Compared with before and after the annual report, the 2021 revenue expectation of several industries, such as national defense and military industry, steel, building materials, home appliances, coal, automobiles, power equipment, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, electronic components and transportation, was revised upward; The revenue forecast of catering, tourism, computer, media and other industries is revised downward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e9b63b0b8664d387a63e0adadb04454\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Valuation comparison: textile and clothing hit a new high, and real estate industry chain hit a new low</b></p><p>Compared with the data of the last five years, the current valuation of Hong Kong Stock Connect is 24% (median), among which textile and clothing, steel, basic chemicals, petroleum and petrochemical sectors are higher, while real estate, construction, building materials, light manufacturing, non-bank finance, media, catering and tourism, home appliances, transportation and other industries are significantly lower than the average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebbf6b4ade68ddd8330d2405d7ca52b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Capital inflow/outflow in recent months: some midstream are still inflowing, indicating that the market is still in a bull market</p><p>Judging from the recent capital inflow, many sectors in the middle reaches have further increased their positions, while the big finance and upstream cycle are temporarily weak. In fact, this structure is more indicative of the economic recovery is still on the way rather than the end. At the end of the bull market, the situation should be the opposite: that is, the midstream outflows, while the big financial and cyclical upstream funds accelerate the inflow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfeea16da7ba61796acf24bcae1f0cb2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Investment advice</b></p><p>1. On the whole, when the CPI goes up, the low valuation will be repaired to a certain extent. Such as big finance, real estate, public utilities and telecom operators. Comparatively speaking, we think big finance is better. The reason is that a) banks and securities firms have made a large provision in 2020, and this year's performance has improved more obviously year-on-year; b) they are undervalued; c) Widening interest spreads have a boost to their earnings expectations; The cost of acquiring land in the real estate industry this year is relatively high, which is manifested by a higher degree of land premium, and the cost of construction and installation is also higher at a high level of commodities. Therefore, we think that although the valuation of real estate companies is low at present, their attractiveness is slightly less than that of companies in the industrial chain. The development of the construction industry is subject to the scale of government investment. At present, their future growth rate will further slow down;</p><p>2. As far as the second quarterly report is concerned, cyclical industries, especially companies in the upstream of the cycle, are more likely to exceed expectations. Petroleum, coal, non-ferrous metals and other sectors will perform better with the high (or even further upward) commodity prices. Here, the midstream sectors such as automobiles, machinery, electronics and home appliances may rise first and then fall. The reason is that the upward trend of commodity prices in the late stage of economic expansion leads to the narrowing of their profits, and the transmission of prices to the downstream is not as easy as that in the early and mid-stage of economic expansion;</p><p>3. In this round of economic cycle, due to the comprehensive impact of epidemic situation and economic transformation (double circulation), consumer stocks represented by Hang Seng Technology, biotechnology and brand clothing, especially those companies that exist uniquely in Hong Kong stocks, will show good investment value in the past and future. At present, Hang Seng Technology needs to rebound. We believe that the pressure of antitrust has been fully digested in the stock price in the first half of the year. The current valuation of biotechnology/medical devices/textiles and clothing is not low, but there are short-term catalytic factors, policy or performance. We think their trend is similar to the middle reaches, and Q3 will still perform well, while Q4 will become less attractive because of its high valuation.</p><p>To sum up, we believe that big finance, upstream cycle and Hang Seng Technology are the three major directions we are optimistic about in the second half of the year. In addition, new energy, semiconductors, biopharmaceuticals, textiles and apparel will also be trend opportunities before and after the semi-annual report. Due to the repeated epidemic, the recovery of the gaming sector will take time, and it is expected that there will be obvious opportunities in Q4.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99730b5306b832b0265537f4b7424a7d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>V. Risk warning</b></p><p>The risk of a lower-than-expected macroeconomic recovery, the risk of repeated pandemics, the uncertainty of Sino-US trade relations, and the risk of technology wars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b6b690532d93e57e2dac2a054def226\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>This article is selected from \"Xueheng's Overseas Observations\", author: Wang Xueheng; Zhitong Finance Editor: Zhuang Lijia.</b></p>","source":"w19319","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investment strategy of Hong Kong stocks in the second half of the year! Hang Seng Index has a chance to challenge this round of new highs</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestment strategy of Hong Kong stocks in the second half of the year! Hang Seng Index has a chance to challenge this round of new highs\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">学恒的海外观察</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 09:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>From the perspective of growth, science and technology innovation and cycle dominate; From the interim report performance, the cycle is better; From the valuation point of view, big finance has new attraction.<b>Abstract</b></p><p><b>Global: Early to Discuss TAPER, U.S. Stocks Still in Slow Bull</b></p><p>Although Taper's voice is endless, it is not easy for boots to land: on the one hand, the short-term GDP, CPI, consumption, housing prices and other data in the United States are constantly rising; on the other hand, the decline of real hourly wages, the slow recovery of jobs, the high proportion of stocks in residents' wealth, and the negative impact of the Biden administration's tax increase on corporate investment and recruitment need to be fully considered by the Federal Reserve. Therefore, we don't think Taper is an overnight achievement, and the preliminary judgment will only have a clearer signal in Q4 2021/Q1 2022; The yield of U.S. bonds rose too fast at the beginning of the year, fully digesting the impact of inflation. Although we judge that the yield is still fluctuating upward, we believe that 1.9-2.0% is the threshold for U.S. stocks to turn. Based on the earnings in 2022, below 4,500 points (our target level for this round of US stock bull market), S&P still runs in the valuation framework of the past decade and is not significantly overvalued.</p><p><b>Domestic: The market around the second quarterly report has begun</b></p><p>The upward trend of medium-and long-term loans to enterprises proves that the economic cycle is still expanding. We preliminarily judge that the output (industrial added value year-on-year) and M1 year-on-year will start to rebound in June and July.</p><p>From June, CPI and PPI will converge, meaning that manufacturing earnings will improve. With the gradual upward trend of CPI, the confidence of the market will continue to be improved.</p><p>Taking the past decade as a reference, the current valuation of A shares is not high, and the valuation of most broad-based indexes (2022) is only the average level. Therefore, we believe that in the period of economic cycle expansion, the market is expected to break through the current new high, with a target of 4200-4300 points in the second half of the year.</p><p>From the perspective of growth, science and technology innovation and cycle dominate; From the interim report performance, the cycle is better; From the valuation point of view, big finance has new attraction.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Investment Advice: Long-standing Momentum, Challenging New Highs</b></p><p>We adjust the target range of 31,000-32,000 points of the Hang Seng Index in 2021, which means that the Hang Seng Index has the opportunity to challenge this round of new highs;</p><p>We believe that while the market goes up in the second half of the year, it will also be accompanied by a rotation situation. The sectors with better semi-annual reports or other fundamentals are mainly textiles and clothing, medicine, metals and energy. Secondly, the interim reports of Hang Seng Technology and Big Finance are expected to meet expectations and the stock price is oversold, which will also have obvious valuation repair.</p><p>After the second quarterly report or Q4, the valuation of some sectors is too high, coupled with the uncertainty of taper and funds at the end of the year, which makes it impossible to continuously improve the risk appetite. At this time, we should pay attention to resource stocks whose prices may continue to rise, bank stocks with low valuation, gaming stocks with lagging recovery expectations, telecom operators and local stocks in Hong Kong with less impact on the economic cycle.</p><p><b>Risk warning</b></p><p>The risk of a lower-than-expected macroeconomic recovery, the risk of repeated pandemics, the uncertainty of Sino-US trade relations, and the risk of technology wars.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>1. Global: It's too early to discuss TAPER, and U.S. stocks are still in a slow bull</b></p><p><b>1. By the end of the year, the vaccination rate in some countries will exceed 70%</b></p><p>The global new epidemic situation has recently stabilized at 300,000-400,000 cases per day, a significant decrease compared with the beginning of the year, among which the new cases in major developed countries have decreased significantly compared with the beginning of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ef09015d57bc577bb7a93bb846c2381\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4256b27b5673e8fb532e714b91541b91\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>in May and June, according to the data of our world in data, the vaccination rate (one dose) in some countries has accelerated significantly. At the current rate, before winter, the vaccination rate in most countries with conditions can exceed 70%, that is, the WHO recognized<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>Level of vaccination rate for immunization effects. The rate of vaccination in China is even more alarming. It has now exceeded 1 billion doses, and with 20 million vaccinations per day, it is also expected to reach a vaccination rate of more than 70% by the end of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba455f4b2fc4f3e96e0539d81b0cb3f3\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. The World Bank revised the global GDP growth rate up to 5.6%</b></p><p><b>1) Upward revision of the global economy in 2021</b></p><p>In January, the World Bank forecast global GDP growth to be only 4.1%. In June, the World Bank revised global GDP growth upward to 5.6%, the strongest recovery from a recession in 80 years, driven largely by 6.8% growth in the US and 8.5% growth in China. The IMF is more optimistic, believing that global GDP growth will reach 6% (its forecast at the beginning of the year was 5.15%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/507d0e153840bb4f705f60f90a813461\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Both of them have similar expectations for China's economic growth. The World Bank expects China's GDP growth rate in 2021 to be 8.5%, and the IMF expects it to be 8.4%; The World Bank expects U.S. GDP growth to be 6.8% in 2021, and the IMF expects 6.4%.</p><p><b>2) The GDP gap between China and the United States has narrowed</b></p><p>During the epidemic, China's GDP continued to grow, while the GDP of the United States declined, which narrowed the GDP gap between China and the United States. If the gap is expressed by (United States-China) /United States, the GDP gap between China and the United States was 30% in 2020. The IMF estimates that, regardless of the impact of RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, the GDP gap between China and the United States will narrow to 16% by 2026, which was 60% in 2010 and 40% in 2016.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b444982fe1c0d1748b4110b2b21b14e4\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Against the background of narrowing the GDP gap between the two countries, the U.S. government has frequently released various pressures on China since Biden took office as president of the United States. On June 8, the U.S. Senate passed the U.S. Innovation and Competition Act of 2021, which CNN said is intended to invest more than $200 billion in U.S. technology, science and research to counter China's growing influence.</p><p>On the other hand, the 2021 White Paper on American Enterprises in China released by AmCham-China in June shows that the Chinese market remains a strong attraction for American companies. More than half (52%) of U.S. companies in China mentioned that the number one business opportunity in China was \"the growth of domestic consumption and the rise of an increasingly large wealthy middle class\", more than two-thirds of U.S. companies regarded China as a priority market, and 85% did not intend to relocate manufacturing or procurement processes outside China. The white paper also shows that nearly 61 percent of U.S. companies believe China will continue to open its market to foreign investment. The sense of gain of American enterprises in China has been further enhanced. For example, in the financial field, American companies have obtained the license to carry out all-round business in China; In food and agriculture, China has revised regulations to allow more American products into China, among other things.</p><p><b>3. The US economic cycle is still in the expansion stage</b></p><p><b>1) Enlightenment from the U.S. Economic Framework: Balance between Inflation and Stagflation</b></p><p>In the economic framework of the United States, interest rate policy or personal income is transmitted to consumer expenditure, which takes two or three quarters. Then the rise of consumption will bring about the prosperity of industrial production and services, and the improvement of corporate profits, which will take another one or two quarters.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47a2af46ec117739d1459c097dde5dde\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Then, expecting the upward prosperity in the future, enterprises began to increase capital expenditure, and actively recruited workers (this is after 2-4 quarters), thus pushing inflation upward. At this time, the Federal Reserve intervened against inflation to ensure the healthy development of the economy.</p><p>In this system, if you intervene too late, it may make inflation grow; But if it intervenes too early, it will douse the recovering economy in its cradle. How to judge this rhythm has always been a \"big problem\". On the left side is inflation and on the right side is deflation.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>Must move carefully on the balance beam.</p><p><b>2) Some contradictions in the current U.S. economic data</b></p><p>On the one hand, the prosperity of consumption and output in the United States is undoubtedly on the rise: personal consumption expenditure is on the rise (also attributed to last year's low base), and the consumer confidence index has returned to the best level since the epidemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c984927723e729dc26b3d0bd56102c50\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Manufacturing PMI oscillated upward, with services PMI already surpassing pre-pandemic highs in May.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06899913e56c9f14274fd575748c7073\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The sales of existing houses have been at a new high in ten years year-on-year, and house prices have accelerated. Many media reports in the United States have reported the phenomenon of \"difficult to find a house\" and \"increasing the price of buying a house\" everywhere.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c22aaa51435ed2745ae7fe639f3f719f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, the market's expectations for the macroeconomic data of the United States have been revised upward for several months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/789c9420c8b167c7a431c7aaa52e412c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"251\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/545c4a3e4d8c168ad26cc85898a91521\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But on the other hand, behind the glamorous data, there are also many hidden worries:</p><p><b>One is the decline in real hourly wages.</b>As the real hourly wage determines the real purchasing power of consumers, in this economic recovery, due to the inability of supply-side production capacity to keep up in time and the upward trend of commodity prices caused by the excessive issuance of US dollars, CPI took the lead in strengthening, which made the nominal hourly wage rise and the real hourly wage decline. Historically, real hourly wage, as a reliable leading indicator of American residents' consumption (of course, this is mainly on the premise of relatively stable employment situation), is not clear at present.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5574774b629c3937a2d6c41738554902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, employment recovery still needs to be observed.</b>Covid has cost 22 million jobs in the U.S., according to the U.S. Department of Labor. So far, it has only recovered to pre-pandemic levels of 67%, and there is an 8 million job gap. As recently as April, new non-farm employment in the United States was significantly lower than market expectations, and May only met the low expectations. Some analysts believe that because of the money-casting subsidy, the income of low-income groups when they go to work is equivalent to that of not going to work, which makes some enterprises unable to find employees and finally closes down again. According to CNBC, in the past month, 25 states have announced that they will terminate their additional benefit programs during the pandemic before they officially expire on September 6th. Some states will stop paying additional federal unemployment benefits as early as June 12. These states are all led by Republican governors. They say additional unemployment benefits are causing unemployed workers to prefer to stay at home rather than look for work, which makes it difficult for companies to recruit workers to fill badly needed vacancies. Bradley, chief policy officer of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, argued: \"The disappointing jobs report clearly shows that paying people who don't work is dampening what should have been a stronger job market.\" The impact of stopping federal additional unemployment benefits on subsequent employment is overall positive, but the effect needs to be tracked.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28525bd8d2b0a12655fff844c305910b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The third is about the expectation that the Biden administration will raise taxes.</b>While we expect this plan to be quite difficult to implement, and in order to secure midterm elections, it is unlikely that the Democrats will do much on this issue before the 2022 midterm elections. However, the expectation of tax increases will affect the human resource planning of businesses to some extent. Clark, president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said there is a disagreement with the administration on the need to raise business taxes: \"The proposed tax increase plan will greatly harm American businesses and American working people. This is certainly not the time to put new barriers to economic recovery. The administration is right to advocate for infrastructure, and we want to do it with the government, but there are other ways to fund infrastructure plans.\" The U.S. Chamber of Commerce said it supports infrastructure investment, but prefers funding primarily through infrastructure royalties. McGinty, a spokesman for the American Retail Federation, said the organization opposed raising funds for infrastructure plans through corporate tax increases in a report to the U.S. Senate Finance Committee. In addition, McGinty, spokesman of the American Retail Industry Leaders Association, also said that the association's position against raising taxes on businesses has not changed.</p><p><b>Fourth, the proportion of the US stock market in residents' assets is too high, and the decline of the stock market will seriously dampen residents' consumption enthusiasm.</b>There are two types of wealth related to stock assets of American residents, one is direct investment, and the other is through pension plans (finally entering the stock market and bond market). Both of them account for an astonishing 57% of residents' wealth (at the highest level in history). Compared with Chinese residents' wealth, the largest category is real estate, which accounts for only 24% of American residents' assets. Historically, consumption and the stock market are mutually causal: the stock market falls → residents' wealth shrinks → consumption is more conservative → corporate profits fall → the stock market falls. At present, the total market capitalization of U.S. stocks is about $45 trillion, which is about 202% of the expected 2021 GDP of the United States ($22.2 trillion). According to Rastved's estimates in The Inescapable Economic Cycle, a decline in the stock market will have an impact coefficient of about 4% on GDP. That is, if the U.S. stock market falls by 20% (this is only a Kitchen cycle level adjustment), the negative effect of a single stock market decline on GDP can reach 202%*20%*4% = -1.6%, regardless of the extended effects such as shrinking capital expenditure, inventory impairment and real estate decline of enterprises. Generally speaking, in a large stock market decline (such as 1/3 to half), and the real estate market is also affected (such as 1/5 to 1/3), the comprehensive impact on the GDP of that year is about-15%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/382235a0385c82b548308426f12a5ca7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Fed Chairman Powell said at an FOMC press conference in April that the Fed \"<b>Will ensure that monetary policy continues to provide strong support for the economy until the recovery is completed</b>”。 Currently, investors expect the Fed to announce a QE taper at the annual meeting of global central banks at Jackson Hole in August. The latest Reuters survey also shows that the Federal Reserve may announce its strategy to cut its large-scale bond purchase program in August or September, but it is not expected to start cutting its monthly purchases until early next year.</p><p>And we still repeat this view: In the current U.S. economy, once TAPER is implemented, the situation of moderate recovery will likely end. Therefore, it is necessary for the Federal Reserve to continue to pay cautious attention to inflation (Q2/Q3) and employment data (June, July and August), especially the impact on employment after some state governments cancelled the bailout in July and August.</p><p><b>3) The flattening of U.S. debt shows that the market's expectation of inflation has been digested</b></p><p>Although the CPI and core CPI of the United States both reached a new high in May, the inflation expectation (10-year U.S. bond yield-10-year TIPS yield) fell, and the 10-year Treasury Bond yield of the United States oscillated flat, which all shows that the expectation of inflation has been digested by the market, and the next step is to continue to track the inflation level in the third quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcb17db63daecb5e450b90e31da6b24d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>We have quantitatively measured the key positions where the upward trend of U.S. bond yields in this round will have an impact on the stock market. The method is to observe the impact of the number and magnitude of rate hike in the historical interest rate hike cycle (the target interest rate of federal funds in this round remains unchanged, which is slightly different from history, but the upward trend of market interest rate is the same) on the peak of the stock market. We measured the result: The U.S. bull market came to an end when the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 1.9-2.0%.</p><p><b>4. The upward trend of commodities will continue</b></p><p>We are pleased to recall that in the annual strategy report released in 2019 before the launch of this round of commodities, we mentioned: \"The global mid-cycle-real estate cycle and commodity cycle are all in the expansion stage, and the short-cycle-Kitchen cycle has also hit a low point and turned to expansion. The combined resonance of the mid-cycle and the short-cycle will promote the rise of cyclical asset prices\". So far, our judgment that the global economy is in an expansion phase remains unchanged.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f69ac8fd633ab057903ac98c0ff9bd7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As the average expansion time of commodity cycle is 24-26 months, the upward trend of this round of commodities will end in the second quarter of 2022. In addition, we compared the relationship between commodity index and S&P 500. Similar to A shares, S&P 500 is ahead of CRB index by about 0-3 months (just like Shanghai Composite Index is ahead of PPI). Therefore, we preliminarily calculate that US stocks will rise to around the first quarter of 2022.</p><p>U.S. stocks are still running in the valuation framework of the past decade</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c409da511bbb7b9010d35341123123e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>With the upward revision of economic expectations, the S&P 500's net income was also revised upward. At present, the market expects that the growth rate of S&P 500EPS from 2021 to 2022 will be 40% and 9% respectively; The ROE was 19.7% and 19.4%, respectively; EPS was 194,211, respectively (compared to 170,197 at the end of last year when we wrote our strategy report, which was 14% and 7% higher, respectively).</p><p>As we have introduced, at present, the United States maintains a lower yield on U.S. bonds than before the epidemic. According to the PE ceiling of S&P 500 in 2008-2019, 21.4-21.5 times PE (excluding the extreme impact of the 2008 financial crisis and the 20-year epidemic), if the target price of S&P 500 is given, we can get:</p><p>SPX Price Target 2021=194*21.4=4151 pips;</p><p>If you take into account the valuation switch to 2022, you get:</p><p>SPX Price Target 2022=211*21.4=4515 pips;</p><p><b>Therefore, we believe that this year and next, before the S&P 500 fluctuates up to 4,500 points, US stocks will still run in the valuation channel of the last decade without being greatly overvalued. Of course, when talking about overvaluation, we must discuss U.S. bond yields, TAPER and QE, and the position of the economic cycle, which we have explained earlier.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c227e1cc13a265388c5f10645737f46\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, A shares: the market around the second quarterly report has begun</b></p><p><b>1. The upward trend of medium-and long-term loans to enterprises proves that the economy is still expanding</b></p><p>In May, M2 stopped declining year-on-year, and began to show the characteristics of stable bottom. Medium-and long-term loans continued to grow very steadily, indicating strong demand for manufacturing credit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d13ac00c05eda5dbb8e68726c0f726d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Dismantling social finance subjects, the recent obvious decline is local government special bonds, corporate bonds and trust loans. The downward background of corporate bonds is that this year, the central government required to resolve the hidden debt risks of local governments, and multi-departments jointly took action to strengthen supervision and curb the growth of hidden debt; This year, local government special bonds have decreased slightly by 280 billion yuan compared with last year. Referring to the recent new local government debt limit of 4,267.6 billion yuan issued by the Ministry of Finance in 2021 (including 800 billion yuan in general debt limit and 3,467.6 billion yuan in special debt limit), it is lower than the previous budget of 4,47 billion yuan approved by the Fourth Session of the 13th National People's Congress (including 3,75 billion yuan in special debt limit); The decline of trust loans is inevitable. This year is the last year of the transition period of the new asset management regulations, and the trust industry is still looking for transformation and innovation. From this point of view, this year's social financing is characterized by: the financing demand of government and local financing platforms has slowed down, the financing of real estate/trust has also been suppressed, and the loan demand of manufacturing industry is strong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f845a54283fd13c73447217a3dbe8b53\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>We estimate that M1 year-on-year and industrial added value year-on-year have either touched or approached the low of the whole year and will rise with the upward trend of the economic cycle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/533c0d730d72abbfdc5353dd14f6d770\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>M2 does not count fiscal deposits (May last year coincided with the peak period of fiscal deposits), so we think that the decline of social financing is more temporary than that of M2.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a462618d750770032e117dc050724701\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, domestic funds are relatively loose, MLF has not gone up since the epidemic last year, the yield of wealth management continues to decline, and the credit spread declines (AA +, AAA is more obvious than AA).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/403868625533e7493faa8e6a393fe62e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Starting from June, the gap between CPI and PPI will converge</b></p><p>In the first half of this year, PPI was under great upward pressure. During the tracking process in the previous months, we also felt that the upward trend of PPI repeatedly exceeded market expectations. Last May was the lowest point of PPI for the whole year, so in terms of form, since June, PPI has undoubtedly begun to decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f3ed224ba421077d14bb149aaadba9b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since the beginning of this year, CPI has been dragged down by the downward trend of pig prices this year, but according to subject observation, transportation and communication, education, culture and entertainment, housing, as well as food, tobacco and alcohol have all begun to improve significantly. We estimate that CPI will remain resilient and steadily upward in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e7d6b010c508c34a936f1c6c30c502f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But on the other hand, the downward trend of PPI represents the slowdown of inflationary pressure, which is conducive to the earnings repair of the manufacturing industry. But this does not mean that inflationary pressures are gone. Because in a commodity cycle, with the improvement of demand, the production capacity on the supply side can't be significantly expanded in a short period of time, and the current inventory of cyclical products is generally not high. With the de-inventory, there is still room for further upward movement in commodity prices.</p><p><b>3. The valuation of A shares is not high, and the plate where the interim report is expected to be updated is locked</b></p><p><b>1) On the whole, the current valuation of A shares is not high</b></p><p>Let's take the valuation level of the past ten years as a reference to observe the current valuation level of A shares.</p><p>The current valuation of Wind Full A is 20.3 times. If the valuation switching is considered, the PE level in 2022 will drop back to the average with the growth of performance. CSI 300 is currently valued at 14.5 times. If the valuation switching is considered, the PE level will also fall back to the average level in 2022 with the growth of performance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85ce88cba8d0e32d600ac041e40ba96e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The current valuation of Shanghai Composite Index is 14.2 times, which is at the average level. If the valuation switching is considered, the corresponding PE in 2022 will be lower than the average; The current valuation level of GEM is slightly higher by 59.0 times, but it is also below +1 standard deviation. Because the growth rate of GEM is higher, its corresponding PE in 2022 is lower than the average, taking into account the valuation switching.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00c5057cc381cafd3af77d267f468623\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The current valuation of CSI 500 is at a low level among all major broad-based indices, with a valuation of only-1 standard deviation on average, which is less than-1 standard deviation if the growth rate in 2022 is taken into account; The SSE 50 valuation level is at a relatively high level, slightly above the historical average given the growth in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6717030e153e34f4d57acbfb01d4b00\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>To sum up, from the ten-year cycle, the current valuation level of A shares is not high. Once the valuation switch is considered in the second half of the year, the current valuation is only the historical average. If we measure the upside of A shares, we measure it at the highest level of 16-16.2 times PE of the customary Shanghai Composite Index at the beginning of the year. Considering the factors including the valuation switch in 2022, the estimated upside target range is about 4200-4300 points. The above consideration is based on the fact that the expansion of the economic cycle has not yet ended, and the main driving force for the upward trend comes from performance improvement rather than valuation expansion.<b>From the perspective of broad-based index, CSI 500 is more attractive than CSI 300 and SSE 50.</b></p><p><b>2) From the perspective of growth, the performance growth rate of science and technology innovation and cycle this year is more obvious</b></p><p>From the observation of performance growth rate, this year's growth rate of science and technology innovation ranks first in the broad-based index, with a growth rate of 70% in 21 years compared with 20 years, followed by small market capitalization companies, National Securities 2000, CSI 1000, CSI 500 and GEM 50. Combined with the current valuation level and rebound, science and technology innovation board and CSI 500 are more cost-effective. In style, what still can't be ignored this year is the profit growth rate of cyclical industries, which is better than growth (74%) by 82% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a8427a42d4a8c2422e6397f9c3383f8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From the perspective of industry, in addition to last year's low-base transportation, media, consumer services and retail, nonferrous metals and black are the top industries this year, and computers, basic chemicals, electronics and automobiles are also the top industries.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7aa967da566899dc1b91a298dc9aa22\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3) From the perspective of expected adjustment, cyclical industries are more dominant</b></p><p>After the annual report (April 30th), Kechuang 50 and CSI 500 are expected to have the largest upward revision among all broad-based indexes, and the Shanghai Composite Index is also upward revised by 1%, ranking third. GEM, CSI 1000 and National Securities 2000 ranked in the bottom three respectively. Compared with styles, the performance of cyclical industries has the largest upward trend, while the growth has the largest downward revision. This is slightly contradictory to our observation in the previous table, that is, although growth stocks have the fastest growth rate, the performance has been revised downward since the annual report, indicating that the current upward trend of growth stocks is differentiated rather than universal, while the decline of cyclical industries is temporary. The second quarterly report is approaching, and we think the opportunities of cyclical industries will be more certain.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18b1a8759585b1503e5b5c338732eb47\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After comparing the annual report, the performance adjustment rankings are compared by industries as follows: steel, consumer services, automobiles, transportation, petroleum and petrochemicals rank first, machinery, non-ferrous metals, coal and light industry manufacturing are also raised to a certain extent, while commerce and retail, media, comprehensive, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, communication and computer rank last.</p><p>In this ranking, we think it is still necessary to discuss the prices of commodities. For example, if the prices of basic metals, coal and crude oil go up, it will bring profit pressure to the middle reaches of industries with sensitive raw materials such as steel, automobiles, machinery, light industry, chemicals and home appliances. If the prices in the upstream of the cycle are stable or downward, the profit growth rate of the above industries may continue to be revised upward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eab95b14ca44af05bd3574782eb630fb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Our attitude is: the expansion of this economic cycle is not over yet, and the incentive for the upward trend of commodity prices: the core variable of relatively limited capacity expansion for 7-10 consecutive years has not changed. Assuming that the downstream output continues to go up, the upward pressure of upstream raw materials will always exist. Therefore,<b>In terms of profit forecast of the sector, we tend to think that the interim results of non-ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and coal in the upstream of the partial cycle are more certain.</b></p><p><b>4) From the perspective of valuation, the valuation repair potential of big finance should not be ignored</b></p><p>According to the understanding of the economic cycle, when the CPI goes up and the market yield goes up, it is expected that the financial industry will be affected by the increase of interest spread and its profit will improve. Therefore, big finance with low valuation is expected to be repaired in the second half of the year. We observe the primary industry in the PE/PB quantile matrix. At present, the PB valuation of bank stocks is at the lowest level in history, and we expect that the ROE of the banking industry in Q2 this year will increase relatively obviously year-on-year (compared with the expected increase from Q2 last year). The insurance industry's premium income is poor this year, but because the sector has not performed in the past two years, the poor fundamentals have been fully digested in the stock price, and there is room for valuation repair in the second half of the year. Brokers have experienced a year of weak shock since July last year, and the current valuation is also very low (together with insurance below 10% of the historical quantile). Considering the advancement of the domestic registration system tide and the better asset quality of securities firms than insurance and banks, we believe that this sector will also perform well in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb102b56576b2cd57a6eae54e0b220\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Comprehensive growth, expected adjustment and valuation,<b>We are optimistic about science and technology innovation board, upstream cycle and big finance as the first choice recommendations in the second half of the year. At the same time, according to the previous calculation, the Shanghai Stock Exchange is expected to rise to the height of 4200-4300 points within the year.</b></p><p><b>3. Hong Kong stocks: gaining momentum for a long time, challenging new highs</b></p><p><b>1. Hang Seng Index is expected to break through this round of new highs in the second half of 2021</b></p><p>The market expects that the EPS growth rate of Hang Seng Index (HSI) will be 11% in 2021 and-2% in 2022. This performance is not as good as that of A shares, but its revenue side is not bad, with a year-on-year growth rate of 19% and 12%. The goal of some large Internet companies this year is still to pursue the growth rate of income rather than the profit end, which is part of the reason. In addition, the real estate and financial parts of the Hang Seng Index account for a relatively high proportion, which also drags down the growth of profits to some extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47d2c33a8ab907c4dbbc675ba9d18aff\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The chart below is the PB swing range of the Hang Seng Index (HSI) valuation over history. We use this to calculate the target level of Hang Seng Index in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecfb432d4084946f04aa13b02bf99f2e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the previous report, we explained that because the stability of net assets is better (compared with EPS and Dividend) from the historical volatility, we usually consider PB valuation or Dividend rate when predicting the low or high of Hang Seng Index. We use the increase in PB at each Kitchen cycle expansion and take the median to calculate the PB upper limit of the Hang Seng Index in the second half of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1790400270c6074c7d80d6f82d5782e6\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since 2002, the PB expansion of HSI in each Kitchen cycle has been 49%, 85%, 74%, 29% and 63% respectively, with a median of 63% and an average of 60%. We get that the PB cap of the Hang Seng Index in the second half of the year is 1.39 times.</p><p>PB2021 upper limit =0.87* (1+60%) =1.39</p><p>According to analysts' estimates of net assets of 21,784 points and 23,387 points in 2021-2022, the target level for the HSI is:</p><p>Neutral: 21784 (BPS2021) *1.39=30,374 points;</p><p>Optimistic (considering the valuation switch to 2022): 23,387 (BPS2022) *1.39=32,610 points.</p><p><b>Therefore, we judge that the target price of Hang Seng Index will run around 31,000-32,000 points in the second half of the year, that is, it has the potential to hit a new high in this round.</b></p><p><b>Review of the trend in the first half of the year</b></p><p>At the beginning of the year, we summarized five major directions in the Summary of Hong Kong Stocks in 2020: \"Looking forward to 2021, the direction of finding excess returns may be: 1. The new economy is still the main battlefield, especially the opportunity that the investment targets under the interference of anti-monopoly policies and U.S. policies will\" panic-wrong-kill-new high \"; 2. Sub-new shares will bring more investment clues; 3. The upward trend of risk appetite will help the valuation of large and small market capitalization converge; 4. With the recovery of the epidemic situation, the procyclical plate will narrow the performance difference between the plates; 5. The landing of the boots of the US ban on investment will bring opportunities for valuation repair of the listed companies. \"</p><p><b>review In the first half of this year, Hong Kong stocks went through three stages: rising, falling and rebounding.</b></p><p>The first stage is before the Spring Festival, when technology stocks and biotechnology stocks take the lead. At the highest, the Hang Seng Technology Index reached a 29% increase;</p><p>The second stage is from the Spring Festival to the beginning of May. Under the rapid rise of U.S. bond yields and the influence of Internet antitrust, the Hang Seng Technology Index pullback/retracement sharply, with the yield falling from 29% to-11%, and the Hang Seng Index falling below 28,000 points;</p><p>The third stage is from late May to June. With the stability of the yield of U.S. bonds and the continuous absorption of many influences of antitrust by the market, the major indexes began to rebound. The best performer was the biotechnology sector (25%), followed by local stocks in Hong Kong (9%), followed by Southbound (7%), with the HSCEI and Hang Seng Technology underperforming the Hang Seng Index.</p><p>1) From the perspective of mainland investors, Hong Kong stocks are a supplement to the A-share market, and Hang Seng Technology and Hang Seng Biotechnology are the two major tracks that investors are most concerned about. Last year, Hang Seng Technology's large increase, coupled with the influence of antitrust, brought some investors to take profits, while Hang Seng Biotechnology took over the baton and performed well. We believe that in the long run, the new economy will still be the main battlefield, and Hang Seng Technology and Biotechnology will perform well. In May, E Fund<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03032\">Hang Seng Technology ETF</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03088\">China Hang Seng Technology</a>ETF, Dacheng Hang Seng Technology ETF, Huaan Hang Seng Technology ETF, Huatai-PineBridge CSOP Hang Seng Technology ETF, Boshi Hang Seng Technology ETF and Harvest Hang Seng Technology ETF have all been released. Mainland investors can buy Hang Seng Technology Index through these ETFs, thus solving the similar problem that Hong Kong stocks don't cover<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The investment restrictions of a large number of stocks such as Baidu, JD.COM and Bilibili.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68eb45ddb4ce3535a01e50d120d05fbb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2) From the perspective of style, it can be seen that since the beginning of the year, if it has outperformed the Hang Seng Index, in terms of style, the positions are required to be concentrated in Hang Seng small-cap stocks, small-and medium-cap stocks and medium-cap stocks, rather than large-cap stocks and medium-and large-cap stocks. At present, the valuation of Hang Seng large-cap stocks and Hang Seng small-cap stocks is still converging. According to historical statistics, when the PB difference between them turns positive, it is the end point of valuation correction (and often the end point of bull market), which also shows that in the current market, opportunities far outweigh risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/243c73a9ab5bd7175cf2bbb9696c2a90\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>3) From the perspective of industry, in addition to the medical sector, the upstream of this year's cycle shines brightly. Among them, the performance of the energy industry ranked first, the raw materials industry ranked third, and the comprehensive industry and Hang Seng Industry also performed well. Lower-ranked sectors are essential consumption, information technology and finance. We are still very optimistic about resource products. As the prices of bulk commodities have risen greatly compared with last year, for example, the price of crude oil has risen to a new high since the epidemic, the CRB index has risen by 50% year-on-year, the copper price has risen by 93% year-on-year, and the aluminum price has risen by 65% year-on-year. Therefore, there is a high probability that the second quarterly reports of these sectors have a good quarterly performance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f39b662e4346eb7fe12c2a1c4e0ee3a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>4) According to the industry performance statistics of 524 companies in Hong Kong Stock Connect, coal has increased astonishingly, followed by iron and steel, basic chemicals, medicine, textiles and clothing, media, non-ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and the bottom-ranked sectors are mainly electric power equipment, building materials, catering and tourism, national defense and military industry, non-bank finance, home appliances, automobiles, comprehensive, food and beverage and other industries.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f41709bcfaf17d58d7bc64db1f58f10\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>5) From the perspective of the banned investment list, the income in the first half of the year is gratifying. We judged at the beginning of the year that the investment ban company would perform well this year. As of June 2021, the average gain of companies on the ban list was 35%, and the median was 19%, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index. Nevertheless, we believe that many of these companies, such as telecom operators and oil companies, are still valued at low levels and have considerable upside.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb224b98db6f930b71d86e0064aa51e2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1068\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Changes in market expectations: cycle dominance, catering/computer downward adjustment</b></p><p>Profit expectation: Compared with before and after the annual report, the net profit expectation of steel, military industry, petroleum and petrochemical, banking, home appliances, electronic components, construction, non-bank finance and other industries in 2021 is revised upward, while the performance of catering and tourism, computers, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, machinery, building materials, food and beverage, commerce and retail, communication and media sectors is revised downward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54a90ee526b9ce63212c201fa34bcf95\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Revenue expectation: Compared with before and after the annual report, the 2021 revenue expectation of several industries, such as national defense and military industry, steel, building materials, home appliances, coal, automobiles, power equipment, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, electronic components and transportation, was revised upward; The revenue forecast of catering, tourism, computer, media and other industries is revised downward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e9b63b0b8664d387a63e0adadb04454\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Valuation comparison: textile and clothing hit a new high, and real estate industry chain hit a new low</b></p><p>Compared with the data of the last five years, the current valuation of Hong Kong Stock Connect is 24% (median), among which textile and clothing, steel, basic chemicals, petroleum and petrochemical sectors are higher, while real estate, construction, building materials, light manufacturing, non-bank finance, media, catering and tourism, home appliances, transportation and other industries are significantly lower than the average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebbf6b4ade68ddd8330d2405d7ca52b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Capital inflow/outflow in recent months: some midstream are still inflowing, indicating that the market is still in a bull market</p><p>Judging from the recent capital inflow, many sectors in the middle reaches have further increased their positions, while the big finance and upstream cycle are temporarily weak. In fact, this structure is more indicative of the economic recovery is still on the way rather than the end. At the end of the bull market, the situation should be the opposite: that is, the midstream outflows, while the big financial and cyclical upstream funds accelerate the inflow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfeea16da7ba61796acf24bcae1f0cb2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Investment advice</b></p><p>1. On the whole, when the CPI goes up, the low valuation will be repaired to a certain extent. Such as big finance, real estate, public utilities and telecom operators. Comparatively speaking, we think big finance is better. The reason is that a) banks and securities firms have made a large provision in 2020, and this year's performance has improved more obviously year-on-year; b) they are undervalued; c) Widening interest spreads have a boost to their earnings expectations; The cost of acquiring land in the real estate industry this year is relatively high, which is manifested by a higher degree of land premium, and the cost of construction and installation is also higher at a high level of commodities. Therefore, we think that although the valuation of real estate companies is low at present, their attractiveness is slightly less than that of companies in the industrial chain. The development of the construction industry is subject to the scale of government investment. At present, their future growth rate will further slow down;</p><p>2. As far as the second quarterly report is concerned, cyclical industries, especially companies in the upstream of the cycle, are more likely to exceed expectations. Petroleum, coal, non-ferrous metals and other sectors will perform better with the high (or even further upward) commodity prices. Here, the midstream sectors such as automobiles, machinery, electronics and home appliances may rise first and then fall. The reason is that the upward trend of commodity prices in the late stage of economic expansion leads to the narrowing of their profits, and the transmission of prices to the downstream is not as easy as that in the early and mid-stage of economic expansion;</p><p>3. In this round of economic cycle, due to the comprehensive impact of epidemic situation and economic transformation (double circulation), consumer stocks represented by Hang Seng Technology, biotechnology and brand clothing, especially those companies that exist uniquely in Hong Kong stocks, will show good investment value in the past and future. At present, Hang Seng Technology needs to rebound. We believe that the pressure of antitrust has been fully digested in the stock price in the first half of the year. The current valuation of biotechnology/medical devices/textiles and clothing is not low, but there are short-term catalytic factors, policy or performance. We think their trend is similar to the middle reaches, and Q3 will still perform well, while Q4 will become less attractive because of its high valuation.</p><p>To sum up, we believe that big finance, upstream cycle and Hang Seng Technology are the three major directions we are optimistic about in the second half of the year. In addition, new energy, semiconductors, biopharmaceuticals, textiles and apparel will also be trend opportunities before and after the semi-annual report. Due to the repeated epidemic, the recovery of the gaming sector will take time, and it is expected that there will be obvious opportunities in Q4.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99730b5306b832b0265537f4b7424a7d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>V. Risk warning</b></p><p>The risk of a lower-than-expected macroeconomic recovery, the risk of repeated pandemics, the uncertainty of Sino-US trade relations, and the risk of technology wars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b6b690532d93e57e2dac2a054def226\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>This article is selected from \"Xueheng's Overseas Observations\", author: Wang Xueheng; Zhitong Finance Editor: Zhuang Lijia.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FsSR-qGJ0tGYdcy0OSIdFw\">学恒的海外观察</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"513600":"恒生指数ETF南方","HSCCI":"红筹指数","HSI":"恒生指数","02833":"恒指ETF","HSCEI":"国企指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FsSR-qGJ0tGYdcy0OSIdFw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154941861","content_text":"从成长性看，科创与周期占优;从中报业绩看，周期更佳;从估值看，大金融更有新引力。\n\n摘要\n全球：讨论TAPER尚早，美股依然在慢牛中\n尽管Taper的声音不绝于耳，但靴子落地并非易事：一方面，美国短期的GDP，CPI，消费，房价等数据在不断的上行，另一方面，实际时薪的下降，就业岗位恢复较慢，居民财富中股票占比过高，拜登政府加税可能带来对企业投资与招聘的负面影响，都需要被美联储充分考虑。因此，我们不认为Taper是一蹴而就的，初步判断在2021年Q4/2022年Q1才会有更加明晰的信号;美债收益率在年初的上行过快，充分消化了通胀的影响，尽管我们判断收益率依然震荡上行，但我们认为1.9-2.0%才是美股转向的阈值。以2022年的盈利作为依据，在4500点以下(本轮美股牛市我们的目标位)，标普依然运行在过去十年的估值框架里而并未大幅高估。\n国内：围绕二季报展开的行情已经开始\n企业中长期贷款的向上，佐证经济周期尚在扩张中，我们初步判断产量(工业增加值同比)、M1同比，都将在6、7月份开始反弹。\n从6月开始，CPI与PPI将收敛，意味着制造业的盈利将有所改善。伴随着CPI的逐渐上行，市场的信心也将不断被提升。\n以过去十年为参照，当下A股的估值并不高，大多宽基指数的估值(2022年)仅为平均值水平。因此，我们认为在经济周期扩张的时期，大盘有望突破本轮新高，下半年目标位4200-4300点。\n从成长性看，科创与周期占优;从中报业绩看，周期更佳;从估值看，大金融更有新引力。\n港股投资建议：蓄势已久，挑战新高\n我们调整恒生指数2021年31000-32000点的目标区间，意味着恒指有机会挑战本轮新高;\n我们认为下半年大盘上行的同时，也会伴随轮动的局面。半年报较优或者其他基本面驱动的板块主要为纺织服装、医药、金属、能源，其次，恒生科技、大金融中报预计符合预期而股价超跌，也将会有明显的估值修复。\n二季报之后或者Q4，部分板块的估值过高，加之距离年底taper以及资金面的不确定性，使得风险偏好无法持续提升，此时当关注价格可能持续上行的资源股、低估值的银行股、复苏预期滞后博彩股，以及经济周期影响较小的电信运营商和香港本地股。\n风险提示\n宏观经济复苏低于预期的风险，疫情反复的风险，中美贸易关系的不确定性，科技战的风险。\n正文\n一、全球：讨论TAPER尚早，美股依然在慢牛中\n1、到年底部分国家接种率将超过七成\n全球新增疫情最近稳定在每天30-40万例，较年初有明显下降，其中主要发达国家新增病例较年初下降明显。\n\n进入到5、6月份，根据our world in data的数据，部分国家的接种率(一剂)明显加速提升，按照当下的速度，在入冬之前，大部分有条件的国家，接种率能超过70%，即世卫组织认可的全民免疫效果的接种率水平。中国接种疫苗的速度更加惊人，目前已经超过了10亿剂次，每天以2000万的接种，预计也将在年底之前达到70%以上的接种率。\n\n2、世界银行上修全球GDP增速至5.6%\n1）2021年全球经济的上修\n世界银行1月份时预计全球GDP增速只有4.1%。6月，世界银行将全球GDP增速上修至5.6%，这是80 年来从衰退中取得的最强复苏，主要是受到美国和中国经济分别增长 6.8% 和 8.5% 的推动。IMF则更加乐观一些，认为全球GDP增速将达到6%(其年初的预期是5.15%)。\n\n两者对中国经济的增速的预期相当，世界银行预期中国2021年GDP增速为8.5%，IMF预期为8.4%;世界银行预期美国2021年GDP增速为6.8%，IMF预期为6.4%。\n2）中美的GDP差距缩小\n疫情期间，中国的GDP继续增长，美国GDP下滑，这缩小了中美GDP的差距，以(美国-中国)/美国表示差距的话，2020年，中美GDP差距为30%，IMF估计，不考虑人民币兑美元汇率的影响，到2026年，中美GDP差距将缩减至16%，该数字在2010年为60%，在2016年时缩小到了40%。\n\n在两国GDP缩小差距的背景下，自拜登就任美国总统之后，美国政府对中国频频释放各类压力。6月8日，美国国会参议院通过《2021年美国创新与竞争法》，美国有线电视新闻网称该法案意在向美国技术、科学、研究领域投资逾2000亿美元，用来对抗中国日益增长的影响力。\n另一方面，中国美国商会6月发布的《2021年度美国企业在中国白皮书》显示，中国市场对美国企业仍具有强大吸引力。超过一半(52%)的在华美国企业提到，中国第一大商机是“国内消费的增长和日益庞大的富裕中产阶层的崛起”，超过三分之二的美国企业将中国视为优先市场，85%的美国企业并未打算将制造或采购工序迁往中国以外的地方。白皮书还显示，近61%的美国企业相信中国将继续向外资开放市场。美国企业在中国的获得感进一步增强，如在金融领域，美国公司已经获得了在中国开展全方位业务的许可;在食品和农业领域，中国修改了法规，允许更多的美国产品进入中国等。\n3、美国经济周期尚在扩张阶段\n1）美国经济框架的启示：通胀与滞胀中的平衡\n在美国的经济框架中，利率政策或者个人收入传导给消费支出，这需要2、3个季度，然后消费的上升将带来工业生产、服务的景气度提升，以及企业盈利的提升，此间又需要1、2个季度。\n\n然后企业预期未来景气度的向上，开始增加资本开支，同时积极招工(这又是在2-4个季度之后了)，进而推动通货膨胀的上行。此时，美联储出手对通胀进行干预，以保证经济的健康发展。\n在这套系统中，如果干预的过晚，可能会使得通货膨胀滋长;但如果干预过早，就会将刚刚复苏的经济浇灭在摇篮中。如何来判断这个节奏，向来是个“天大的问题”，左边是通胀，右边是通缩，政府与中央银行必须在平衡木上小心翼翼的前行。\n2）当下美国经济数据中的一些矛盾之处\n一方面，美国消费、产量景气度无疑是上行的：个人消费支出上行(也归因去年低基数)，同时消费者信心指数恢复到疫情以来的最好水平。\n\n制造业PMI震荡上行，5月份服务业的PMI已经超过了疫情前的最高水平。\n\n成屋销售同比十年新高，房价加速上行，美国诸多媒体报道随处可见的“一房难求”、“买房加价”的现象。\n\n此外，市场对于美国宏观经济数据的预期，几个月以来也在不断上修。\n\n但是另一方面，在光鲜的数据背后，也有着不少隐忧：\n其一是实际时薪的下降。由于实际时薪决定了消费者的真实购买力，而本次经济复苏中，由于供给侧产能无法及时跟上、以及美元超发导致的商品价格的上行，推动了CPI率先走强，这使得名义时薪的上行而实际时薪的下降。历史上，实际时薪作为美国居民消费比较可靠的前导指标(当然，这主要在就业状况相对稳定的前提下)，当下给出的趋势并不明朗。\n\n其二是就业恢复仍需观察。根据美国劳工部的数据，新冠疫情让美国2200万人失去了工作。到目前为止，只恢复到了疫情前的67%的水平，还有800万就业差距。尚就在4月，美国新增非农就业大幅低于市场预期，5月仅仅符合本不高的预期。部分分析认为，因为撒钱式的补贴导致了低收入群体上班与不上班收入相当，这使得部分企业找不到员工，最终再次关门倒闭。据美国CNBC报导，在过去的一个月里，已经有25个州宣布将在其于9月6日正式到期之前，终止疫情期间的额外福利计划。一些州最早将于6月12日就停止联邦额外失业金的发放。这些州都是由共和党州长领导的。他们表示，额外增加的失业救济金，正在导致失业工人更愿意待在家里，而不是去找工作，这种补助使得企业很难招到工人，以填补急需的空缺职位。美国商会首席政策官布拉德利认为：“令人失望的就业报告清楚地表明，向不工作的人支付工资，正在抑制本应更加强劲的就业市场。”停止联邦额外失业金对后续用工的影响总体是积极的，但效果尚需跟踪。\n\n其三是关于拜登政府加税的预期。虽然我们预计此计划实施起来相当困难，而且为了确保中期选举，民主党不大可能在2022年中期选举之前在此问题上有过多的建树。然而，加税的预期在一定程度上将影响企业的人力资源规划。美国商会会长Clark表示，在提高商业税的必要性问题上与政府存在分歧：“拟议的增税计划将极大地损害美国企业和美国劳动者的利益。现在肯定不是为经济复苏设置新障碍的时候。政府倡导基础设施是正确的，我们希望与政府一起做这件事，但还有其他方法来资助基建计划。”美国商会表示支持基建设投资，但倾向于主要通过基础设施使用费来提供资金。美国零售联合会发言人McGinty表示，该组织在提交给美国参议院财政委员会的一封报告中反对为通过增加企业税为基建计划筹集资金。此外，美国零售业领导者协会发言人McGinty也表态，该协会反对给企业增税的立场没有改变。\n其四是关于美国股市在居民资产中的占比过高，股市的下跌将严重打击居民的消费热情。美国居民的财富和股票资产相关的有两类，一类是直接投资，另一类是通过养老计划(最终进入股市、债市)，两者在居民财富占比达到了惊人的57%(处在历史最高水平)，相比中国居民财富最大类的为房地产，在美国居民资产中的占比仅为24%。历史上，消费与股市互为因果：股票市场下跌→居民财富缩水→消费更加保守→企业盈利下降→股票市场下跌。当下，美股的总市值大约为45万亿美元，约为美国预期2021年GDP(22.2万亿美元)的202%。按照拉斯特维德在《逃不开的经济周期》中的估计，股市下跌将对GDP产生约4%的冲击系数。即，倘若美股下跌20%(这仅是一个基钦周期级别的调整)，单股市下跌对GDP的负向作用可达202%*20%*4%=-1.6%，以上，尚不考虑企业的资本开支萎缩，存货减值，房地产下跌等延伸性影响。一般来说，在一个有幅度的股票市场下跌行情中(如下跌1/3至一半)，且房地产市场也受到影响时(比如下跌1/5至1/3)，对当年GDP的综合影响约为-15%左右。\n\n美联储主席鲍威尔在4月的FOMC记者会上表示，美联储“将确保货币政策继续为经济提供强有力的支持，直到完成复苏”。目前，投资者预期美联储将在8月的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上宣布缩减QE。路透最新调查也显示，美联储可能在8月或9月宣布削减其大规模购债计划的策略，但预计要到明年初才会开始削减每月购买规模。\n而我们依然重复这一观点：就当下的美国经济，一旦TAPER实施，温和复苏的局面将可能终结。所以，持续审慎关注通胀(Q2/Q3)，就业数据(6、7、8月)，尤其是7、8月在部分州政府取消救助后对就业的影响，对于美联储是必要的。\n3）美债的走平说明市场对通胀的预期已经消化\n尽管5月份美国的CPI、核心CPI都创了新高，但是通胀预期(10年期美债收益率-10年TIPS收益率)下跌，美国10年期国债收益率振荡走平，这都说明对于通胀的预期已被市场所消化，下一步需要继续跟踪三季度的通胀水平。\n\n我们曾定量测算了本轮美债收益率的上行对于股票市场产生影响的关键位置。方法是观察在历史上的升息周期中加息次数、幅度(本轮联邦基金目标利率不动，这和历史略有区别，但市场利率上行是相同的)对于股票市场见顶的影响。我们测算了该结果：10年期美债收益率上行至1.9-2.0%水平时，美国牛市告一段落。\n4、大宗商品的上行仍将持续\n我们欣慰的回顾，在本轮大宗商品启动前的2019年发布的年度策略报告中，我们提及：“全球中周期——房地产周期、大宗商品周期均处在扩张阶段，短周期——基钦周期也已触及低点，转向扩张。中周期与短周期的合力共振向上，将推动周期资产价格的上涨”。到目前为止，我们对全球经济处在扩张阶段的判断依然没有改变。\n\n由于商品周期平均扩张时间为24-26个月，本轮大宗商品的上行将会在2022年二季度终结。此外，我们对比了商品指数与标普500的关系，与A股类似，标普500领先于CRB指数约0-3个月(就像上证指数领先PPI一样)，因此，我们初步匡算，美股将上涨到2022年一季度左右。\n美股依然运行在过去十年的估值框架中\n\n随着经济预期的向上修正，标普500的净利润也被上修。目前市场预期2021-2022年标普500EPS增速分别为40%，9%;ROE分别为19.7%，19.4%;EPS分别为194，211(而在我们去年年底撰写策略报告时期，EPS仅为170，197，上调幅度分别为14%，7%)。\n我们曾经介绍过，当下美国维持比疫情前更低的美债收益率，按照2008-2019年标普500的PE上限，21.4-21.5倍PE(剔除08年金融危机与20年疫情的极端影响)，给予标普500目标价，则可得：\nSPX目标价2021=194*21.4=4151点;\n如果考虑到估值切换到2022年，则可以得到：\nSPX目标价2022=211*21.4=4515点;\n因此，我们认为，今明两年，在标普500震荡上行达到4500点之前，美股则依然运行在最近十年的估值通道中而并未大幅高估。当然，谈论高估必然要讨论美债收益率、TAPER与QE，以及经济周期的位置，这些问题我们已经在前文解释过。\n\n二、A股：围绕二季报展开的行情已经开始\n1、企业中长期贷款的向上，佐证经济尚在扩张中\n5月份的M2同比已经不再下滑，开始出现了底部稳住的特征。中长期贷款依旧保持非常稳健的增长，预示着制造业信贷需求的旺盛。\n\n拆解社融科目，最近下降较为明显的是地方政府专项债券、企业债券、信托贷款。企业债券的下行背景是今年中央要求抓实化解地方政府隐性债务风险工作，多部门联合出手强化监管，遏制隐性债务增长;地方政府专项债券今年较去年略减少2800亿元，参考近期财政部下达2021年新增地方政府债务限额42676亿元(其中一般债务限额8000亿元，专项债务限额34676亿元)，低于此前经十三届人大四次会议批准的44700亿元预算(其中专项债务额度37500亿元);信托贷款的下滑是必然的，今年是资管新规过渡期的最后一年，信托业依旧在寻找转型与创新中。如此来看，今年的社融的特征是：政府与地方融资平台的融资需求放缓，房地产/信托的融资也被抑制住，而制造业的贷款需求旺盛。\n\n我们预估M1同比、工业增加值同比或者已经触及或者接近全年的低点并伴随经济周期的向上而抬升。\n\nM2中不统计财政存款(去年5月恰值财政存款高峰期)，因此社融较M2下滑更多我们认为是暂时性的。\n\n此外，国内资金面相对宽松，MLF从去年疫情至今尚未上行，理财收益率继续下行，信用利差下行(AA+，AAA较AA更加明显)。\n\n2、从6月开始，CPI与PPI差距将收敛\n今年上半年，PPI上行压力较大，在前几个月的跟踪过程中我们也感受到PPI的上行屡屡超过市场预期。去年5月为PPI全年的低点，因此从形态上，自6月份开始，PPI开启下行无疑。\n\n今年以来，CPI今年受制于猪价的下行有一定的拖累，但分科目观察，交通和通信、教育文化和娱乐、居住，以及食品烟酒环比都开始有了比较明显的改善。我们估计，CPI下半年还将保持韧性，稳步向上。\n\n但另一方面，PPI的下行代表了通胀压力的减缓，有利于制造业的盈利修复。但这并非意味着通胀压力的消失。因为在一个商品周期中，随着需求的好转，供给侧的产能尚无法在短周期内明显扩大，况且当下的周期品库存总体不高，随着库存的去化，商品价格还有进一步上行的空间。\n3、A股估值并不高，锁定中报预期上修的板块\n1）综合来看，当下A股估值并不高\n我们以过去十年的估值水平作为一个参考，观察一下当下A股的估值水平。\n万得全A当下估值20.3倍，若考虑估值切换，则2022年PE水平伴随业绩的增长回落至平均值。沪深300目前估值为14.5倍，若考虑估值切换，则2022年PE水平伴随业绩的增长也将回落至平均水平。\n\n上证指数当下的估值为14.2倍，处在平均值水平，若考虑估值切换，则2022年对应PE低于平均值;创业板当下估值水平略高59.0倍，但也处于+1个标准差以下，由于创业板增速更高，因此在考虑到估值切换的情境下，其2022年对应PE则低于平均值。\n\n中证500目前估值在所有主要的宽基指数中处于较低水平，估值仅为平均值-1标准差，若考虑到2022年的增速，则低于-1标准差;上证50估值水平处于相对较高水平，考虑到2022年的增长，则估值水平略高于历史平均值。\n\n综上，以十年周期来看A股，当下的估值水平并不高，下半年一旦考虑到估值切换，当下估值也仅为历史平均水平。如果测算A股的上行空间，我们以习惯的上证指数在年初16-16.2倍PE的年内最高水平测算，考虑到包含2022年估值切换的因素，测算上行目标区间约为4200-4300点。以上考虑是建立在经济周期扩张尚未结束，上行的主要动力是来自业绩提升而非估值扩张的情景。从宽基指数看，中证500较沪深300、上证50等估值更具吸引力。\n2）从成长性来看，科创与周期今年的业绩增速更明显\n从业绩增速观察，今年科创增速在宽基指数中居前，21年对比20年增长率高达70%，其次是小市值公司，国证2000，中证1000，中证500，创业板50，结合当下的估值水平和反弹情况，科创板、中证500性价比较高。在风格中，今年依旧不容忽视的是周期性行业的盈利增速，同比82%的增长，好过成长(74%)。\n\n从行业角度，今年增速较快的行业除了去年低基数的交运、传媒、消费者服务、零售外，有色、黑色居前，此外计算机、基础化工、电子、汽车也排名居前。\n\n3）从预期调整角度来看，周期性行业更占优势\n年报之后(4月30日)，科创50、中证500在所有宽基指数中预期上修幅度最大，上证指数也上修1%，排名第三。创业板、中证1000、国证2000则排名分别为后三位。风格中比较，周期性行业业绩上行幅度最大，成长则下修幅度最大。这和我们在前表中的观察略有矛盾，即成长股虽然增速最快，但从年报之后，业绩下修，说明目前成长股中的上行也是分化的而不是普遍的，而周期性行业的下跌是暂时的，二季报将至，我们认为周期性行业的机会将更加确定。\n\n对比年报后，业绩调整排名分行业比较如下：钢铁、消费者服务、汽车、交运石油石化居前，机械、有色金属、煤炭、轻工制造也有一定幅度的上调，而排名居后的分别是商贸零售、传媒、综合、农林牧渔、通信、计算机。\n在这样的排序中，我们认为依然需要讨论商品的价格，例如，如果基本金属、煤炭、原油的价格上行，将对中游的钢铁、汽车、机械、轻工、化工、家电等原材料敏感性的行业带来盈利压力，如果周期上游的价格稳定或者下行，则如上行业的盈利增速可能反倒继续上修。\n\n我们的态度是：本轮经济周期扩张尚未结束，而商品价格上行的诱因：连续7-10年的产能扩张相对有限的核心变量并没有改变，假定下游产量继续上行，则上游原材料上行的压力始终存在。因此，在板块的盈利预测方面，我们倾向于认为偏周期上游的有色金属、石油石化、煤炭的中报业绩确定性更强。\n4）从估值角度来看，不应忽略大金融的估值修复潜力\n按照对经济周期的理解，当CPI向上，市场收益率上行，预期金融行业受到息差加大的影响而盈利改善。因此，低估值的大金融有望在下半年修复。我们将一级行业放在PE/PB分位矩阵中观察，目前银行股的PB估值在历史最低水平，而且我们预计今年Q2银行业的ROE将有相对明显的同比抬升(对比去年Q2开始的预计提)。保险行业今年保费收入较差，但由于两年以来该板块没有表现，基本面不佳已经充分消化在股价上，下半年也有估值修复的空间。券商从去年7月份经历了一年的弱势震荡，当下估值也很低(连同保险处在历史分位10%以下)。考虑到国内注册制大潮的推进，以及券商资产质量优于保险、银行，我们认为下半年该板块也将有不错的表现。\n\n综合成长性，预期调整，估值三个方面，我们看好科创板、周期上游、大金融作为下半年的首选推荐。同时，我们按照前文的测算，上证将在年内有望上行至4200-4300点的高度。\n三、港股：蓄势已久，挑战新高\n1、2021年下半年恒指有望突破本轮新高\n市场预期，恒生指数(HSI)在2021年EPS增速为11%，2022年增速为-2%，这个表现不如A股，但是其收入端并不差，同比为19%与12%的增速。一些大型的互联网公司今年的目标依然是追求收入的增速而非利润端，这是一部分原因，另外恒生指数中地产、金融部分占比较高，也一定程度上拖累了利润的增长。\n\n下图是恒生指数(HSI)在历史上估值的PB波动区间。我们以此来测算恒指的下半年目标位。\n\n在此前的报告中，我们曾解释过，由于从历史波动率观察，净资产的稳定性更好(较EPS和股息)，因此，我们在预测恒指的低点或者高点通常考虑PB估值或者股息率。我们沿用每轮基钦周期扩张时PB的提升幅度，取中位数来匡算2021年下半年恒生指数的PB上限。\n\n从2002年以来，恒指在每轮基钦周期中的PB扩张幅度分别为49%、85%、74%、29%、63%，中位数为63%，平均数为60%。我们得到下半年恒生指数的PB上限是1.39倍。\nPB2021上限=0.87*(1+60%)=1.39\n根据分析师对2021-2022年净资产的预期为21,784点、23,387点，则恒指的目标位为：\n中性：21784(BPS2021)*1.39=30,374点;\n乐观(考虑到估值切换到2022年)：23,387(BPS2022)*1.39=32,610点。\n因此，我们判断下半年恒指的目标价将运行到31,000-32,000点附近，即有创本轮新高的潜力。\n2、上半年走势回顾\n我们在年初《2020年港股小结》中总结了五大方向：“展望2021年，寻找超额收益的方向可能是：1、新经济依然是主战场，尤其是反垄断政策与美国政策干扰下的投资标的将会“恐慌-错杀-再新高”的机会;2、次新股将带来更多的投资线索;3、风险偏好的上行将有助于大小市值的估值收敛;4、顺周期板块伴随疫情的恢复，将缩小板块间的表现差异;5、美国禁投令的靴子落地，将带来名单公司的估值修复机会。”\n复盘今年上半年，港股经历了三个阶段：上涨、下跌、反弹。\n第一阶段是春节之前，科技股、生物科技股一马当先，最高时期，恒生科技指数达到了29%的上涨幅度;\n第二个阶段是春节后至5月初，在美债收益率快速上行，以及互联网反垄断的影响下，恒生科技指数大幅回撤，收益率从29%跌至-11%，恒指跌破28000点;\n第三阶段是5月下旬到6月，随着美债收益率的稳定，以及市场不断的吸收了反垄断的诸多影响，各大指数开始反弹。表现最好的是生物科技板块(25%)，其次是香港本地股(9%)，再其次是港股通(7%)，国企指数和恒生科技跑输恒生指数。\n1）从内地投资者的角度，港股作为A股市场的补充，恒生科技与恒生生物科技是投资者最关注的两大赛道。去年恒生科技涨幅较大，加之反垄断的影响，带来了部分投资者止盈，而恒生生物科技则接过了接力棒，表现抢眼。我们相信，长期来看，新经济依然是主战场，恒生科技、生物科技都会有不错的表现。5月，易方达恒生科技ETF、华夏恒生科技ETF、大成恒生科技ETF、华安恒生科技ETF、华泰柏瑞南方东英恒生科技ETF、博时恒生科技ETF、嘉实恒生科技ETF都已经发布，内地投资者可以透过这些ETF购买恒生科技指数，这样解决了港股没有覆盖的类似阿里巴巴、百度、京东、B站等一大批股票的投资限制问题。\n\n2）从风格上来看，可以看出，从年初以来，如果跑赢恒生指数，在风格上，要求仓位集中在恒生小型股、中小型股、中型股，而非大型股与中大型股。目前，恒生大型股与恒生小型股的估值依然在收敛中，我们按照历史规律统计过，当两者的PB差值转正，才是估值修正的终点(也往往是牛市的终点)，这也说明了目前的市场，机会远大于风险。\n\n3）从行业来看，除了医疗板块，今年周期上游大放异彩。其中能源业的表现排名第一，原材料业排名第三，综合业、恒生工业也有不错的表现。排名靠后的行业的必需性消费、资讯科技、金融。我们依然非常看好资源品，由于大宗品的价格较去年上行幅度很大，例如原油价格上行到了疫情以来的新高，CRB指数同比上行50%，铜价同比上行93%，铝价同比上行65%，因此大概率上这些板块二季报有不错的季报表现。\n\n4）从港股通524家公司的行业表现统计，煤炭涨幅惊人，其次是钢铁、基础化工、医药、纺织服装、传媒、有色金属、石油石化，排名居后的板块主要是电力设备、建材、餐饮旅游、国防军工、非银行金融、家电、汽车、综合、食品饮料等几个行业。\n\n5）从禁投名单的角度看，上半年收益可喜。我们在年初判断，禁投令公司今年会有不错的表现。截至2021年6月，禁投名单公司涨幅平均数为35%，中位数19%，大幅跑赢恒指。尽管如此，我们认为其中的诸多公司如电信运营商、石油公司，估值依然较低，还有相当程度的上行空间。\n\n3、市场预期变化：周期占优，餐饮/计算机下调\n利润预期：对比年报前后，钢铁、军工、石油石化、银行、家电、电子元器件、建筑、非银金融等几个行业的2021年净利润预期上修，而餐饮旅游、计算机、农林牧渔、有色金属、电力设备、机械、建材、食品饮料、商贸零售、通信、传媒几个板块的业绩下修。\n\n收入预期：对比年报前后，国防军工、钢铁、建材、家电、煤炭、汽车、电力设备、农林牧渔、电子元器件、交运等几个行业的2021年收入预期上修;而餐饮旅游、计算机、传媒等行业的收入预期下修。\n\n4、估值比较：纺织服装创新高，地产产业链新低\n以最近5年的数据比较，当下港股通的估值分位为24%(中位值)，其中，纺织服装、钢铁、基础化工、石油石化几个板块较高，而房地产、建筑、建材、轻工制造、非银金融、传媒、餐饮旅游、家电、交运等行业大幅低于平均水平。\n\n近月资金流入/流出：部分中游还在流入，说明市场还在牛市中\n从近期的资金流入情况来看，中游的诸多板块有进一步的加仓，而大金融、周期上游暂时偏弱。实际上这样的结构更加说明经济复苏依然在路上而非尾声。在牛市的尾声，呈现的局面应该相反：即中游流出，而大金融、周期上游资金加速流入。\n\n四、投资建议\n1、整体而言，在CPI上行时，低估值会有一定幅度的估值修复。如大金融、房地产、公用事业、电信运营商，这些行业相比较而言，我们认为大金融更优。理由是a)银行、券商在2020年都进行了较大幅度的计提，今年业绩同比改善更加明显;b)它们估值较低;c)息差扩大对它们的盈利预期有推动作用;房地产业今年拿地的成本较高，表现为较高程度的土地溢价，而承受的建安成本在大宗商品处在高位处也较高，因此我们认为地产公司目前尽管估值较低，但其吸引力略小于产业链上的公司。建筑业的发展受制于政府投资规模，目前来看，它们未来的增长速度将进一步放缓;\n2、就二季报来看，周期性行业，尤其是周期上游的公司更容易超预期。石油石化、煤炭、有色金属等板块，伴随着商品价格的高位(甚至进一步上行)，业绩会更佳。此间，汽车、机械、电子、家电等中游板块，或呈现先上涨后下跌的局面，理由是经济扩张后期商品价格上行导致其利润收窄，而价格的向下游传导也不如经济扩张早中期容易;\n3、本轮经济周期，由于疫情、经济转型(双循环)等综合影响，以恒生科技、生物科技、品牌服饰为代表的消费股，尤其是那些在港股中独特存在的公司，过去以及未来都会呈现良好的投资价值。当下，恒生科技有反弹需要，我们认为反垄断的压力已经充分消化在上半年的股价中，生物科技/医疗器械/纺织服装目前估值不低，但都有短期的催化因素，政策上的或业绩上的，我们认为它们的走势类似中游，Q3依然会有不错的表现，而Q4则会因为估值高而变得吸引力下降。\n综上，我们认为大金融、周期上游、恒生科技是我们下半年看好的三大方向。此外，新能源、半导体、生物制药、纺织服装也将半年报前后的趋势性机会。受制于疫情的反复，博彩板块的复苏尚需时日，预计Q4才有较为明显的机会。\n\n五、风险提示\n宏观经济复苏低于预期的风险，疫情反复的风险，中美贸易关系的不确定性，科技战的风险。\n\n本文选编自“学恒的海外观察”，作者：王学恒；智通财经编辑：庄礼佳。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513600":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9,"MCHmain":0.9,"HHImain":0.9,"MHImain":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,"HSImain":0.9,"02833":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3078,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158951130,"gmtCreate":1625125419820,"gmtModify":1703736620924,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9b8f75db4c14f22597f42cb3752e117","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584066196704033","idStr":"3584066196704033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/158951130","repostId":"1144302321","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144302321","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625109902,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1144302321?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-01 11:25","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Brokerage gold stocks released in July! Which stocks get the most roll call?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144302321","media":"第一财经","summary":"机构指出，7月指数将持续震荡，随着中报行情展开，业绩为王，高景气成长是最小阻力方向，主题机会关注旺季线索。\n\n6月A股市场呈现窄幅震荡走势，科技股热点贯穿全月，7月如何寻找机会？截至6月30日，有14","content":"<p><div>The agency pointed out that the index will continue to fluctuate in July. With the unfolding of the interim report market, performance is king, high prosperity growth is the least resistance direction, and the theme opportunity pays attention to the peak season clues. In June, the A-share market showed a narrow range of fluctuations, and the hot spots of technology stocks ran throughout the month. How to find opportunities in July? As of June 30th, 14 brokers announced their monthly investment portfolios in July, involving non-banking, electrical, light industry, machinery, chemical industry, home appliances and other fields. Which stocks get the most roll call? According to incomplete statistics, in the list of \"gold stocks\" of various brokerages, the most recommended by institutions is still \"brokerage Mao\" Oriental Fortune, with a total of...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101097403.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Brokerage gold stocks released in July! Which stocks get the most roll call?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBrokerage gold stocks released in July! Which stocks get the most roll call?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 11:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>The agency pointed out that the index will continue to fluctuate in July. With the unfolding of the interim report market, performance is king, high prosperity growth is the least resistance direction, and the theme opportunity pays attention to the peak season clues. In June, the A-share market showed a narrow range of fluctuations, and the hot spots of technology stocks ran throughout the month. How to find opportunities in July? As of June 30th, 14 brokers announced their monthly investment portfolios in July, involving non-banking, electrical, light industry, machinery, chemical industry, home appliances and other fields. Which stocks get the most roll call? According to incomplete statistics, in the list of \"gold stocks\" of various brokerages, the most recommended by institutions is still \"brokerage Mao\" Oriental Fortune, with a total of...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101097403.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101097403.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a10424fe3b1f29e8d28fdc0dc474e86","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101097403.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144302321","content_text":"机构指出，7月指数将持续震荡，随着中报行情展开，业绩为王，高景气成长是最小阻力方向，主题机会关注旺季线索。\n\n6月A股市场呈现窄幅震荡走势，科技股热点贯穿全月，7月如何寻找机会？截至6月30日，有14家券商公布了7月月度投资组合，涉及非银、电气、轻工、机械、化工、家电等多个领域。\n\n哪些个股收获点名最多？\n据不完全统计，在各家券商的“金股”名单中，获机构推荐次数最多的依旧是“券商茅”东方财富，共获得5家券商的推荐，该股6月月内累计涨3.11%，最新收盘价为32.79元。\n此外，药明康德获得国泰君安、兴业证券、浙商证券3家券商的推荐。该股6月内涨幅明显，达12.62%，最新收盘价为156.59元。\n从涨跌幅来看，获两家及以上券商推荐的个股中，港股爱帝宫涨幅最大，该股6月内大涨65.75%，最新收盘价为1.21港元；跌幅最大的是泸州老窖，6月内跌超14%，报235.94元。\n\n后市怎么走？\n展望后市，券商普遍表示，7月股市将持续震荡，而中报行情将成为市场亮点。\n华金证券指出，7月份扰动增加，震荡恐将加剧，但在海内外流动性预期暂时好转背景下，结构性行情有望延续。\n浙商证券也指出，7月指数将持续震荡，随着中报行情展开，业绩为王，高景气成长是最小阻力方向，主题机会关注旺季线索。\n银河证券认为，7月是中报及中报预告披露期，业绩高增长主导结构性机会。经济金融环境暂维持相对利好权益资产，但是A股市场已反弹至高位，增量资金进场缓慢，后续需谨慎追涨，适当降低预期。\n西南证券也认为，经过前期的快速上涨，同时随着中报陆陆续续公布，中报行情有望迎来业绩兑现期，需要适当转向防御，以巩固前期的上涨成果。\n哪些行业最受青睐？\n配置方向上，券商依旧看好顺周期板块未来行情，计算机、医药、新能源等成长板块也受到券商关注，此外，关注中报业绩高增长主线。\n开源证券研报指出，周期股的重定价时刻正在来临，当投资者认识到供给约束的持续性与通胀并非短期，那么在业绩持续验证下，周期股的长期盈利能力将在全市场内显得极具性价比。同时，环境的变化也正在扭转高杠杆经营公司长期的不利地位。开始重新把前期回调较多，受到市场约束较多的成长型周期股纳入到推荐中。\n兴业证券研报称，成长仍是主旋律但是要立足性价比，中报行情可布局绩优股。成长板块围绕4条主线，找长期性价比合适的机会：\n\n 1、AIoT（计算机、通信、电子）；\n\n\n 2、医药（医疗器械、医疗服务）；\n\n\n 3、新能源链条（新能源材料、锂电设备、汽车、智能驾驶）；\n\n\n 4、高端制造设备（半导体设备、军工）。\n\n同时，兴业证券强调，中报行情不容忽视，如机械、军工、化工、交运等行业的绩优股。\n银河证券也认为，景气度向上、中报业绩高增长是主线：关注需求强劲的上游周期品；医疗美容、化妆品、智能家电等消费升级主题；产业数字化、碳中和等国家战略方向。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3404,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158951946,"gmtCreate":1625125400685,"gmtModify":1703736620758,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9b8f75db4c14f22597f42cb3752e117","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584066196704033","idStr":"3584066196704033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/158951946","repostId":"1169437088","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169437088","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625123508,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169437088?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-01 15:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Market Overview: Chinese medicine welcomes the fiercest stimulation! \"Maotai in Medicine\" doubled its share price in 12 days","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169437088","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"A股\nA股三大指数今日震荡整理，最终沪指微幅收跌0.07%，收报3588.78点；深证成指下跌0.81%，收报15038.88点；创业板指下跌0.63%，收报3455.36点。两市成交额超过一万亿元，","content":"<p><b>A Shares</b></p><p>The three major A-share indexes fluctuated and consolidated today, and finally the Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly down 0.07% to close at 3588.78 points; Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.81% to close at 15,038.88 points; The GEM index fell 0.63% to close at 3455.36 points. The turnover of the two cities exceeded one trillion yuan, and the industry sectors rose less and fell more. Traditional Chinese medicine concept stocks set off a daily limit tide, with aerospace military industry, Hongmeng concept and brokerage sectors leading the decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb7391c66e88ae128ca2e5ca63451b16\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Today, the Chinese medicine sector took off collectively, and more than 10 stocks rose by more than 10%. On the news, on June 30th, the National Health and Health Commission issued the \"Opinions on Further Strengthening the Work of Traditional Chinese Medicine in General Hospitals and Promoting the Coordinated Development of Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine\". Judging from the content of the notice, the stimulus for Chinese medicine and traditional Chinese medicine may exceed the strength of many previous policies.</b></p><p><b>It is worth mentioning that the same daily limit<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600771\">Guang Yu Yuan</a>The stock has continued to rise recently. In the last 12 trading days, the stock has risen by 106%. Some analysts believe that Guangyuyuan's recent surge is mainly related to its holding of the state secret formula and its involvement in the liquor business. Some investors call it \"Moutai in medicine\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/673b761f750752a91da7ff36533412e0\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Hong Kong stock</b></p><p>Due to the anniversary of Hong Kong's handover, Hong Kong stocks are closed today.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks</b></p><p>The futures of the three major U.S. stock indexes rose. As of press time, the Dow futures rose 0.25%; Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.01%; S&P 500 futures rose 0.20%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8742c33b64a185476056e71d5ee3d2c\" tg-width=\"478\" tg-height=\"184\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>European shares</b></p><p>Most major European indexes rose. As of press time, Germany's DAX index rose 0.73%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>The index rose 0.84%, France's CAC40 rose 0.90% and Europe's Stoxx 50 rose 0.89%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa65062916054527ea68944119e63f8\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>International oil prices fluctuated and rose. As of press time, WTI crude oil was reported at $73.85/barrel, up 0.52%; Brent oil is now traded at $74.93/barrel, up 0.42%.</p><p>International oil prices traded sideways, and investors waited for major oil-producing countries to make a decision on whether to maintain or relax supply in the second half of the year. The market predicts that the gap between supply and demand is expected to widen in the second half of the year. NYMEX crude oil is targeted at $75.57.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/496dae289a2fe780fd1e0bba5f9b62f5\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f23e8677d6b7739357c74ffabf3943be\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>International gold rose slightly, rising 0.33% during the day to $1,777.5/oz.</p><p>International gold prices rose, or rebounded to $1,789 in the short term. However, the US Dollar Index refreshed its high since April 7 to 92.483, limiting the rebound momentum of gold prices. Investors await tomorrow's upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls report with a view to understanding its impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7e7b514480769d9ec3b5cea50e6ad02\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Market Overview: Chinese medicine welcomes the fiercest stimulation! \"Maotai in Medicine\" doubled its share price in 12 days</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarket Overview: Chinese medicine welcomes the fiercest stimulation! \"Maotai in Medicine\" doubled its share price in 12 days\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-01 15:11</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>A Shares</b></p><p>The three major A-share indexes fluctuated and consolidated today, and finally the Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly down 0.07% to close at 3588.78 points; Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.81% to close at 15,038.88 points; The GEM index fell 0.63% to close at 3455.36 points. The turnover of the two cities exceeded one trillion yuan, and the industry sectors rose less and fell more. Traditional Chinese medicine concept stocks set off a daily limit tide, with aerospace military industry, Hongmeng concept and brokerage sectors leading the decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb7391c66e88ae128ca2e5ca63451b16\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Today, the Chinese medicine sector took off collectively, and more than 10 stocks rose by more than 10%. On the news, on June 30th, the National Health and Health Commission issued the \"Opinions on Further Strengthening the Work of Traditional Chinese Medicine in General Hospitals and Promoting the Coordinated Development of Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine\". Judging from the content of the notice, the stimulus for Chinese medicine and traditional Chinese medicine may exceed the strength of many previous policies.</b></p><p><b>It is worth mentioning that the same daily limit<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600771\">Guang Yu Yuan</a>The stock has continued to rise recently. In the last 12 trading days, the stock has risen by 106%. Some analysts believe that Guangyuyuan's recent surge is mainly related to its holding of the state secret formula and its involvement in the liquor business. Some investors call it \"Moutai in medicine\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/673b761f750752a91da7ff36533412e0\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Hong Kong stock</b></p><p>Due to the anniversary of Hong Kong's handover, Hong Kong stocks are closed today.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks</b></p><p>The futures of the three major U.S. stock indexes rose. As of press time, the Dow futures rose 0.25%; Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.01%; S&P 500 futures rose 0.20%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8742c33b64a185476056e71d5ee3d2c\" tg-width=\"478\" tg-height=\"184\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>European shares</b></p><p>Most major European indexes rose. As of press time, Germany's DAX index rose 0.73%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>The index rose 0.84%, France's CAC40 rose 0.90% and Europe's Stoxx 50 rose 0.89%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa65062916054527ea68944119e63f8\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>International oil prices fluctuated and rose. As of press time, WTI crude oil was reported at $73.85/barrel, up 0.52%; Brent oil is now traded at $74.93/barrel, up 0.42%.</p><p>International oil prices traded sideways, and investors waited for major oil-producing countries to make a decision on whether to maintain or relax supply in the second half of the year. The market predicts that the gap between supply and demand is expected to widen in the second half of the year. NYMEX crude oil is targeted at $75.57.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/496dae289a2fe780fd1e0bba5f9b62f5\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f23e8677d6b7739357c74ffabf3943be\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>International gold rose slightly, rising 0.33% during the day to $1,777.5/oz.</p><p>International gold prices rose, or rebounded to $1,789 in the short term. However, the US Dollar Index refreshed its high since April 7 to 92.483, limiting the rebound momentum of gold prices. Investors await tomorrow's upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls report with a view to understanding its impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7e7b514480769d9ec3b5cea50e6ad02\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d11890cd6ccd454a56d86737fd3353","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","600519":"贵州茅台","HSCCI":"红筹指数","HSCEI":"国企指数","000001.SH":"上证指数",".DJI":"道琼斯","HSI":"恒生指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169437088","content_text":"A股\nA股三大指数今日震荡整理，最终沪指微幅收跌0.07%，收报3588.78点；深证成指下跌0.81%，收报15038.88点；创业板指下跌0.63%，收报3455.36点。两市成交额超过一万亿元，行业板块涨少跌多，中药概念股掀起涨停潮，航天军工、鸿蒙概念、券商板块领跌。\n\n今日中药板块集体起飞，10余只个股涨超10%。消息面上，6月30日，国家卫健委发布《关于进一步加强综合医院中医药工作推动中西医协同发展的意见》。从通知内容来看，对于中医和中药的刺激程度可能超过以往许多政策的力度。\n值得一提的是同样涨停的广誉远，该股近期持续拉升，最近12个交易日，该股累计上涨106%，有分析认为，广誉远近期大涨主要与其手握国家保密配方，同时涉足酒类业务有关。有投资者称其为“药中茅台”。\n\n港股\n因香港回归纪念日，港股今日休市。\n美股\n美国三大股指期货走高，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.25%；纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.01%；标普500指数期货涨0.20%。\n\n欧股\n欧洲主要指数多数上涨，截止发稿，德国DAX指数涨0.73%，英国富时100指数涨0.84%，法国CAC40指数涨0.90%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.89%。\n\n原油\n国际油价震荡上扬，截止发稿，WTI原油报73.85美元/桶，涨0.52%；布油现报74.93美元/桶，涨0.42%。\n国际油价横盘整理，投资者等待主要产油国就下半年是维持还是放宽供应作出决定。市场预测，下半年供需缺口料将扩大。NYMEX原油上放目标位看向75.57美元。\n\n黄金\n国际黄金小幅上涨，日内涨0.33%，报1777.5美元/盎司。\n国际金价上涨，短线或反弹至1789美元。但美元指数刷新4月7日以来高位至92.483，限制了金价反弹势头。投资者等待明天即将公布的美国非农就业报告，以期了解其对美联储货币政策的影响。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"600519":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"HSI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2961,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153997516,"gmtCreate":1625002224835,"gmtModify":1703849723282,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9b8f75db4c14f22597f42cb3752e117","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584066196704033","idStr":"3584066196704033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153997516","repostId":"1137606203","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137606203","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624979680,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137606203?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-29 23:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"[Change] AMD rose by more than 3%, and the acquisition of Xilinx was approved by antitrust agencies","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137606203","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月29日，AMD盘中涨超3%，据英国竞争和市场管理局官网消息，AMD 350亿美元收购赛灵思的计划已经得到了批准。","content":"<p>On June 29th, AMD rose by more than 3%. According to the official website of the British Competition and Market Authority, AMD's plan to acquire Xilinx for $35 billion has been approved.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/049d5db8c8d130133e9ae5d4afaa67a9\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>[Change] AMD rose by more than 3%, and the acquisition of Xilinx was approved by antitrust agencies</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n[Change] AMD rose by more than 3%, and the acquisition of Xilinx was approved by antitrust agencies\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-29 23:14</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 29th, AMD rose by more than 3%. According to the official website of the British Competition and Market Authority, AMD's plan to acquire Xilinx for $35 billion has been approved.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/049d5db8c8d130133e9ae5d4afaa67a9\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a593d85be38c3aa543ab3056553101ff","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137606203","content_text":"6月29日，AMD盘中涨超3%，据英国竞争和市场管理局官网消息，AMD 350亿美元收购赛灵思的计划已经得到了批准。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153997858,"gmtCreate":1625002180274,"gmtModify":1703849722796,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9b8f75db4c14f22597f42cb3752e117","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584066196704033","idStr":"3584066196704033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153997858","repostId":"2147863759","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2147863759","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1624971302,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2147863759?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-29 20:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tesla has sent CATL to the \"C position\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2147863759","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"宁德时代最近成为新能源界的C位担当，一是因为董事长曾毓群暴涨的身价，二是因为和特斯拉的一纸电池合约。\n6月28日，宁德时代发布公告称，公司已与特斯拉签订协议，将在2022年1月至2025年12月期间，","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>Recently, it has become the C-position in the new energy industry, first because of the skyrocketing value of Chairman Zeng Yuqun, and second because of the<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>A battery contract.</p><p>On June 28, CATL announced that the company had signed an agreement with Tesla to supply lithium-ion power battery products to Tesla from January 2022 to December 2025, that is, the next four years. The specific purchase situation is determined by Tesla by order, and the final sales amount must be subject to the actual settlement of the purchase order issued by Tesla.</p><p>In the future, Tesla's Model 3, Model Y and other models will use battery packs from CATL.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a713164f29f737032b723520c810364e\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Affected by this news, on June 29th, the share price of CATL reached a new high. The intraday share price once reached 519.60 yuan/share, and the total market value exceeded 1.2 trillion yuan. As of the close, CATL's share price closed at 508.51 yuan/share, an increase of 2.96%. Become the first technology stock in A-shares to step into the trillion-dollar club.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that since last year, the share price of CATL is like sitting on a rocket, and the total market value has risen from 0.23 trillion yuan to 1.18 trillion yuan, an increase of more than four times.</p><p>June 29,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>According to the evaluation of this cooperation, the agreement between CATL and Tesla is stronger than the previous cooperation. Considering that the downstream demand of the company exceeds expectations, the profit forecast of CATL is raised and the target price is raised by 9% to 600 yuan. CICC also raised its 2021-2023 earnings forecast for CATL by 10%, 25% and 8% to 11 billion yuan, 20 billion yuan and 26.7 billion yuan, respectively.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">Soochow Securities</a>Recently, a research report released said that the buy rating of CATL was maintained, and the target price was 607.5 yuan. The reasons for the rating include: the strategic cooperation agreement with the car company is to bind the battery production capacity, which can solve the bottleneck of battery supply and ensure that the production capacity is not limited.</p><p>In addition, Zeng Tao, an analyst at CICC, pointed out in the report that the agreement did not stipulate the Chinese market, which means that CATL will take the opportunity of cooperating with Tesla's global market supply to accelerate its products to the world. Boosted by global demand, the long-term global market share of CATL is expected to reach more than 30%.</p><p>This is another handshake between the two head enterprises. For CATL, which has already stood at a high market value of trillions, the deep bundling with Tesla, the largest customer, is not only related to the installed battery capacity brought by this customer, but also an important ticket to break through the overseas power battery market.</p><p><h2><b>Secondary</b><b>\"Hand in Hand\"</b></h2>It is reported that in 2018, when Musk signed the landing agreement of Tesla's Shanghai factory, he secretly met Zeng Yuqun, chairman of CATL, but the two sides did not reach a substantive agreement.</p><p>At the \"2019 World Artificial Intelligence Conference\", the two met again and finalized their cooperation intention in more than 40 minutes.</p><p>In February 2020, a contract brought the two leading companies in new cars and power batteries truly together. At that time, CATL signed the Production Pricing Agreement (China) with Tesla, and planned to supply lithium-ion power battery products to Tesla from July 2020 to June 2022.</p><p>According to this contract, CATL will supply batteries for Tesla's Model 3 produced in Shanghai. The scope of cooperation between the two sides is also expected to expand further after Tesla launched the Model Y in early 2021.</p><p>On June 25th this year, on the basis of this Agreement, the two parties signed the above-mentioned cooperation framework Agreement \"Production Pricing Agreement\". The agreement stipulates that CATL plans to supply lithium-ion power battery products to Tesla in the next four years. Some analysts believe that the difference between the two cooperation framework agreements before and after lies in the removal of \"China\", which indicates that this supply agreement will cover the whole world.</p><p>The further deepening of cooperation between the two sides has actually been foreshadowed.</p><p>On June 3, Reuters quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that CATL plans to build a new large power battery factory in Shanghai to supply half of Tesla's batteries used for electric vehicles and rooftop energy storage worldwide.</p><p>The Shanghai plant is rumored to have an annual capacity of 80GWh, compared to CATL's existing capacity of 69.1GWh and 77.5GWh under construction.</p><p>In addition, the \"Oolong Incident\" that occurred in CATL a few days ago is also related to Tesla. Recently, some people claiming to be employees of CATL broke the news that CATL forced manager-level employees to buy Tesla Model 3. Some employees said that the company launched preferential activities to buy Tesla in order to clear Tesla inventory with \"battery problems\".</p><p>CATL said that there were no quality problems and no compulsory purchases. \"Regarding employees' purchase of Tesla, the company encourages employees to purchase electric vehicles at preferential prices in order to promote full electrification. There is no compulsory and is not limited to Tesla, including most of the brands it supplies. It is said that this activity has lasted for three years, and last year it was during the National Day.\"</p><p><h2><b>\"Binding\" deepens</b></h2>Regardless of the Oolong incident, the relationship between Tesla and CATL is further bound.</p><p>According to the 2021 Q1 financial report of CATL, the company's sales to the top five customers accounted for 41.08% of the current receivables, and the company's main customers are large domestic and overseas car companies. According to the 2020 annual report, the company's sales gap to the third and fourth largest customers is not big.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b1d28e7bc0109ab77f6fbdfcfb26e8f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to Century Securities,<b>Calculated according to the installed caliber,</b><b>In 2020, Tesla was the third largest customer in CATL, and by the first quarter of 2021, Tesla jumped into the largest customer.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71035fcd7b52b58275f0aaf4030589c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The binding between the two sides has deepened, not only because Tesla has jumped into the largest customer. More importantly, Tesla is one of the important tickets for CATL to break through the overseas power battery market.</p><p>Earlier, Jiang Li, deputy general manager and secretary of the board of directors of CATL, once said,<b>The cooperation between CATL and Tesla is not limited to China. The new contract may be the beginning of the power battery cooperation between the two parties going abroad.</b></p><p>Public data shows that CATL is already in the C position in terms of installed capacity of power batteries. In 2020, the valid catalogue of new energy models published by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has more than 6,800 models, of which more than 3,400 models are equipped with power batteries in CATL, accounting for the highest proportion among all power battery manufacturers.</p><p>CATL's advantages in the global power battery competition are also further expanding.</p><p>According to the latest data from SNE Research, a South Korean industry Research organization, in the first quarter of 2021, the global battery energy consumption of electric vehicles was 47.8 GWh, up 127% year-on-year, with CATL's substantial growth in the first quarter as the main driving force.</p><p>According to the data, in the first quarter, CATL's battery installed capacity increased by 320.8% year-on-year to 15.1 GWh, and its market share expanded from 25% in 2020 to 31.5% again, while its biggest competitor LG Chem and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PC\">Panasonic</a>The market share of Panasonic decreased to 20.5% and 16.7% respectively, and the market share of Panasonic decreased by nearly 10 percentage points in one year.</p><p>However, the heights are too cold, and CATL still needs to face many competitors at home and abroad.</p><p>Overseas, there are LG Chem and other enterprises eyeing; At home,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>Already poses a threat to CATL. In March last year, BYD released a blade battery based on lithium iron phosphate, and gradually opened it from self-use to third-party car companies.</p><p>Therefore, deepening the binding with Tesla at this time may have some benefits for CATL, whether it is the installed capacity of power batteries or further enhancing the competitiveness of domestic and overseas markets.</p><p><h2><b>\"C-Bit\"</b><b>Challenges</b></h2>Although Tesla's battery contract sent CATL to the C position this time, this trillion-dollar company has a very stable position in the new energy field.</p><p>As the world's leading power battery supplier, CATL not only supplies new car representatives such as Tesla, but also cooperates with traditional car companies such as Mercedes-Benz and Honda. Three domestic new car manufacturers also chose the power battery of CATL.</p><p>Han<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">Guoxin Energy</a>According to the statistics of SNE, an analyst organization, CATL has ranked first in the global power battery installation for four consecutive years. As recently as 2020, the global installed capacity of CATL power batteries was 34GWh, representing a market share of nearly a quarter.</p><p>With the popularity of the new energy sector, this behind-the-scenes giant has gone to the front of the stage since last year and gained capital attention. For example, clearance in 2020<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>After that, Gaochun Capital turned to CATL and subscribed for a fixed increase of 10 billion yuan.</p><p>CATL, whose share price has soared, has also attracted more investors' attention. On May 21st, CATL also received a survey of 54 people from 33 institutional investors, including large-scale public offering of funds, foreign-funded institutions and asset management of securities firms. The topics that these institutional investors are concerned about are mainly in the development of solid-state batteries, the company's three strategic directions and the layout of photovoltaic field.</p><p>It is not only CATL that is recognized by the outside world, but its chairman Zeng Yuqun has repeatedly been at the forefront of Forbes Rich List.</p><p>As of 11: 30 a.m. on June 28th, the real-time list of Forbes Rich List showed that Zeng Yuqun, chairman of CATL, was worth $44.7 billion (about 288.8 billion yuan), ranking 30th in the world. It was his first time in the top 30 of the list.</p><p>At the beginning of May, Zeng Yuqun successfully became the richest man in Hong Kong. With a net worth of $34.5 billion, he shook the list of the richest people in Hong Kong, which was dominated by the \"Lee family\" for more than 20 years, and his personal wealth once surpassed that of Lee Shau Kee ($32.1 billion) and Li Ka-shing ($34.4 billion).</p><p>At that time, Zeng Yuqun ranked 42nd in the world's richest list, and now he has broken through to the top 30.</p><p>Within one year, CATL has gone out of the circle many times, attracting much attention in the primary and secondary markets. As the first A-share technology company with a trillion market capitalization, how long can CATL stand in the C position?</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla has sent CATL to the \"C position\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla has sent CATL to the \"C position\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-29 20:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>Recently, it has become the C-position in the new energy industry, first because of the skyrocketing value of Chairman Zeng Yuqun, and second because of the<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>A battery contract.</p><p>On June 28, CATL announced that the company had signed an agreement with Tesla to supply lithium-ion power battery products to Tesla from January 2022 to December 2025, that is, the next four years. The specific purchase situation is determined by Tesla by order, and the final sales amount must be subject to the actual settlement of the purchase order issued by Tesla.</p><p>In the future, Tesla's Model 3, Model Y and other models will use battery packs from CATL.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a713164f29f737032b723520c810364e\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Affected by this news, on June 29th, the share price of CATL reached a new high. The intraday share price once reached 519.60 yuan/share, and the total market value exceeded 1.2 trillion yuan. As of the close, CATL's share price closed at 508.51 yuan/share, an increase of 2.96%. Become the first technology stock in A-shares to step into the trillion-dollar club.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that since last year, the share price of CATL is like sitting on a rocket, and the total market value has risen from 0.23 trillion yuan to 1.18 trillion yuan, an increase of more than four times.</p><p>June 29,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>According to the evaluation of this cooperation, the agreement between CATL and Tesla is stronger than the previous cooperation. Considering that the downstream demand of the company exceeds expectations, the profit forecast of CATL is raised and the target price is raised by 9% to 600 yuan. CICC also raised its 2021-2023 earnings forecast for CATL by 10%, 25% and 8% to 11 billion yuan, 20 billion yuan and 26.7 billion yuan, respectively.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">Soochow Securities</a>Recently, a research report released said that the buy rating of CATL was maintained, and the target price was 607.5 yuan. The reasons for the rating include: the strategic cooperation agreement with the car company is to bind the battery production capacity, which can solve the bottleneck of battery supply and ensure that the production capacity is not limited.</p><p>In addition, Zeng Tao, an analyst at CICC, pointed out in the report that the agreement did not stipulate the Chinese market, which means that CATL will take the opportunity of cooperating with Tesla's global market supply to accelerate its products to the world. Boosted by global demand, the long-term global market share of CATL is expected to reach more than 30%.</p><p>This is another handshake between the two head enterprises. For CATL, which has already stood at a high market value of trillions, the deep bundling with Tesla, the largest customer, is not only related to the installed battery capacity brought by this customer, but also an important ticket to break through the overseas power battery market.</p><p><h2><b>Secondary</b><b>\"Hand in Hand\"</b></h2>It is reported that in 2018, when Musk signed the landing agreement of Tesla's Shanghai factory, he secretly met Zeng Yuqun, chairman of CATL, but the two sides did not reach a substantive agreement.</p><p>At the \"2019 World Artificial Intelligence Conference\", the two met again and finalized their cooperation intention in more than 40 minutes.</p><p>In February 2020, a contract brought the two leading companies in new cars and power batteries truly together. At that time, CATL signed the Production Pricing Agreement (China) with Tesla, and planned to supply lithium-ion power battery products to Tesla from July 2020 to June 2022.</p><p>According to this contract, CATL will supply batteries for Tesla's Model 3 produced in Shanghai. The scope of cooperation between the two sides is also expected to expand further after Tesla launched the Model Y in early 2021.</p><p>On June 25th this year, on the basis of this Agreement, the two parties signed the above-mentioned cooperation framework Agreement \"Production Pricing Agreement\". The agreement stipulates that CATL plans to supply lithium-ion power battery products to Tesla in the next four years. Some analysts believe that the difference between the two cooperation framework agreements before and after lies in the removal of \"China\", which indicates that this supply agreement will cover the whole world.</p><p>The further deepening of cooperation between the two sides has actually been foreshadowed.</p><p>On June 3, Reuters quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that CATL plans to build a new large power battery factory in Shanghai to supply half of Tesla's batteries used for electric vehicles and rooftop energy storage worldwide.</p><p>The Shanghai plant is rumored to have an annual capacity of 80GWh, compared to CATL's existing capacity of 69.1GWh and 77.5GWh under construction.</p><p>In addition, the \"Oolong Incident\" that occurred in CATL a few days ago is also related to Tesla. Recently, some people claiming to be employees of CATL broke the news that CATL forced manager-level employees to buy Tesla Model 3. Some employees said that the company launched preferential activities to buy Tesla in order to clear Tesla inventory with \"battery problems\".</p><p>CATL said that there were no quality problems and no compulsory purchases. \"Regarding employees' purchase of Tesla, the company encourages employees to purchase electric vehicles at preferential prices in order to promote full electrification. There is no compulsory and is not limited to Tesla, including most of the brands it supplies. It is said that this activity has lasted for three years, and last year it was during the National Day.\"</p><p><h2><b>\"Binding\" deepens</b></h2>Regardless of the Oolong incident, the relationship between Tesla and CATL is further bound.</p><p>According to the 2021 Q1 financial report of CATL, the company's sales to the top five customers accounted for 41.08% of the current receivables, and the company's main customers are large domestic and overseas car companies. According to the 2020 annual report, the company's sales gap to the third and fourth largest customers is not big.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b1d28e7bc0109ab77f6fbdfcfb26e8f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to Century Securities,<b>Calculated according to the installed caliber,</b><b>In 2020, Tesla was the third largest customer in CATL, and by the first quarter of 2021, Tesla jumped into the largest customer.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71035fcd7b52b58275f0aaf4030589c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The binding between the two sides has deepened, not only because Tesla has jumped into the largest customer. More importantly, Tesla is one of the important tickets for CATL to break through the overseas power battery market.</p><p>Earlier, Jiang Li, deputy general manager and secretary of the board of directors of CATL, once said,<b>The cooperation between CATL and Tesla is not limited to China. The new contract may be the beginning of the power battery cooperation between the two parties going abroad.</b></p><p>Public data shows that CATL is already in the C position in terms of installed capacity of power batteries. In 2020, the valid catalogue of new energy models published by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has more than 6,800 models, of which more than 3,400 models are equipped with power batteries in CATL, accounting for the highest proportion among all power battery manufacturers.</p><p>CATL's advantages in the global power battery competition are also further expanding.</p><p>According to the latest data from SNE Research, a South Korean industry Research organization, in the first quarter of 2021, the global battery energy consumption of electric vehicles was 47.8 GWh, up 127% year-on-year, with CATL's substantial growth in the first quarter as the main driving force.</p><p>According to the data, in the first quarter, CATL's battery installed capacity increased by 320.8% year-on-year to 15.1 GWh, and its market share expanded from 25% in 2020 to 31.5% again, while its biggest competitor LG Chem and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PC\">Panasonic</a>The market share of Panasonic decreased to 20.5% and 16.7% respectively, and the market share of Panasonic decreased by nearly 10 percentage points in one year.</p><p>However, the heights are too cold, and CATL still needs to face many competitors at home and abroad.</p><p>Overseas, there are LG Chem and other enterprises eyeing; At home,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>Already poses a threat to CATL. In March last year, BYD released a blade battery based on lithium iron phosphate, and gradually opened it from self-use to third-party car companies.</p><p>Therefore, deepening the binding with Tesla at this time may have some benefits for CATL, whether it is the installed capacity of power batteries or further enhancing the competitiveness of domestic and overseas markets.</p><p><h2><b>\"C-Bit\"</b><b>Challenges</b></h2>Although Tesla's battery contract sent CATL to the C position this time, this trillion-dollar company has a very stable position in the new energy field.</p><p>As the world's leading power battery supplier, CATL not only supplies new car representatives such as Tesla, but also cooperates with traditional car companies such as Mercedes-Benz and Honda. Three domestic new car manufacturers also chose the power battery of CATL.</p><p>Han<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">Guoxin Energy</a>According to the statistics of SNE, an analyst organization, CATL has ranked first in the global power battery installation for four consecutive years. As recently as 2020, the global installed capacity of CATL power batteries was 34GWh, representing a market share of nearly a quarter.</p><p>With the popularity of the new energy sector, this behind-the-scenes giant has gone to the front of the stage since last year and gained capital attention. For example, clearance in 2020<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>After that, Gaochun Capital turned to CATL and subscribed for a fixed increase of 10 billion yuan.</p><p>CATL, whose share price has soared, has also attracted more investors' attention. On May 21st, CATL also received a survey of 54 people from 33 institutional investors, including large-scale public offering of funds, foreign-funded institutions and asset management of securities firms. The topics that these institutional investors are concerned about are mainly in the development of solid-state batteries, the company's three strategic directions and the layout of photovoltaic field.</p><p>It is not only CATL that is recognized by the outside world, but its chairman Zeng Yuqun has repeatedly been at the forefront of Forbes Rich List.</p><p>As of 11: 30 a.m. on June 28th, the real-time list of Forbes Rich List showed that Zeng Yuqun, chairman of CATL, was worth $44.7 billion (about 288.8 billion yuan), ranking 30th in the world. It was his first time in the top 30 of the list.</p><p>At the beginning of May, Zeng Yuqun successfully became the richest man in Hong Kong. With a net worth of $34.5 billion, he shook the list of the richest people in Hong Kong, which was dominated by the \"Lee family\" for more than 20 years, and his personal wealth once surpassed that of Lee Shau Kee ($32.1 billion) and Li Ka-shing ($34.4 billion).</p><p>At that time, Zeng Yuqun ranked 42nd in the world's richest list, and now he has broken through to the top 30.</p><p>Within one year, CATL has gone out of the circle many times, attracting much attention in the primary and secondary markets. As the first A-share technology company with a trillion market capitalization, how long can CATL stand in the C position?</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634141\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983e0432c72ee1117f6c5b8a19ed6e25","relate_stocks":{"300750":"宁德时代","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634141","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2147863759","content_text":"宁德时代最近成为新能源界的C位担当，一是因为董事长曾毓群暴涨的身价，二是因为和特斯拉的一纸电池合约。\n6月28日，宁德时代发布公告称，公司已与特斯拉签订协议，将在2022年1月至2025年12月期间，也就是未来四年，向特斯拉供应锂离子动力电池产品。具体的采购情况特斯拉以订单方式确定，最终销售金额须以特斯拉发出的采购订单实际结算为准。\n未来，特斯拉旗下的Model 3、Model Y等车型将会使用来自宁德时代的电池组。\n\n受此消息影响，6月29日，宁德时代股价再创新高，盘中股价一度达到519.60元/股，总市值突破1.2万亿元。截至收盘，宁德时代股价报收508.51元/股，涨幅达2.96%。成为A股中第一家跨进万亿俱乐部的科技股。\n值得一提的是，自去年以来，宁德时代的股价如同坐上火箭，总市值由0.23万亿元上涨至1.18万亿元，涨幅超过4倍。\n6月29日，中金公司对此合作评价称，宁德时代此次与特斯拉的协议较之前合作力度更大，考虑到公司下游需求超预期，上调宁德时代的盈利预测，并将目标价调升9%至600元人民币。中金还上调了宁德时代2021-2023年的盈利预测10%、25%和8%，分别至110亿元、200亿元和267亿元。\n东吴证券近日发布研报称，维持宁德时代买入评级，目标价格为607.5元。其评级理由就包括：与车企的战略合作协议系绑定电池产能，能解决电池供应瓶颈，确保产能不受限。\n另外，中金分析师曾韬等在报告中指出，此次协议未约定中国市场，意味着宁德时代将以配合特斯拉全球市场供应为契机，推动产品加速走向全球。全球需求提振下，宁德时代远期全球市场份额有望达到30%以上。\n这是两家头部企业的再次握手。对于已经站上万亿市值高位的宁德时代而言，与第一大客户特斯拉的深度捆绑，不仅关乎该客户带来的电池装机量，更是一张突围海外动力电池市场的重要门票。\n二次“牵手”\n据悉，2018年，马斯克在签署特斯拉上海工厂落地协议时，曾秘密会见宁德时代董事长曾毓群，不过双方未达成实质性协议。\n在“2019世界人工智能大会”上，二人再度会面，用40多分钟敲定了合作意向。\n2020年2月，一份合约让新造车和动力电池的两家头部企业真正走到一起。彼时，宁德时代与特斯拉签订《Production Pricing Agreement (China)》，拟于2020年7月至2022年6月期间向特斯拉供应锂离子动力电池产品。\n据此合约，宁德时代为特斯拉在上海生产的Model 3供应电池。2021年初，特斯拉推出Model Y后，双方的合作范围也有望进一步扩大。\n今年6月25日，在该协议的基础上，双方又签订了上文提及的合作框架协议《Production Pricing Agreement》。协议约定宁德时代计划在未来四年向特斯拉供应锂离子动力电池产品。有分析认为，前后两份合作框架协议的区别在于去掉了“China”，预示着本次供货协议将覆盖全球。\n双方的合作进一步深入，其实早就有预示。\n6月3日，路透社援引知情人士消息称，宁德时代计划在上海新建一家大型动力电池厂，提供特斯拉在全球范围内一半用于电动汽车和屋顶储能的电池。\n有传言称，上海工厂年产能将达到80GWh，而宁德时代现有产能为69.1GWh，并有77.5GWh产能在建中。\n另外，宁德时代日前发生的“乌龙事件”也与特斯拉有关。近日，有自称是宁德时代员工的人员爆料，宁德时代强制经理级别员工购买特斯拉Model 3，有员工称公司推出购买特斯拉的优惠活动，是为了清掉“电池有问题”的特斯拉库存。\n宁德时代则表示，没有质量问题，也没有强制购买。“关于员工购买特斯拉是公司为推行全面电动化，以优惠价格鼓励员工购买电动车，没有强制，也不限于特斯拉，包括其大部分供货的品牌。称此活动已持续三年，去年是在国庆节期间。”\n“绑定”加深\n不论乌龙事件如何，特斯拉和宁德时代的关系都在进一步绑定。\n宁德时代2021年Q1财报显示，公司面向前五大客户的销售金额占当期应收比例为41.08%，公司主要客户为大型境内外车企。2020年年报显示，公司面对第三和第四大客户的销售额差距不大。\n\n而据世纪证券，按装机口径计算， 2020年特斯拉为宁德时代第三大客户，而到2021年第一季度，特斯拉一跃成为最大客户 。\n双方的绑定加深，不仅在于特斯拉跃升为最大客户。更关键的是特斯拉是宁德时代突围海外动力电池市场的重要门票之一。\n此前，宁德时代副总经理、董事会秘书蒋理曾表示，宁德时代与特斯拉的合作不局限于国内。新合约或许就是双方的动力电池合作走出国门的开始。\n公开数据表明，宁德时代在动力电池装机量上已经处于C位。2020年工信部公布的新能源车型有效目录共有6800多款车型，其中宁德时代配套动力电池的有3400多款，在全部动力电池厂商中占比最高。\n宁德时代在全球动力电池竞争中的优势也在进一步扩大。\n据韩国行业调研机构SNE Research最新数据，2021年第一季度，全球电动车电池能耗为47.8 GWh，同比增长127%，宁德时代一季度的大幅增长为主要推动力。\n数据显示，第一季度，宁德时代电池装机量同比增长320.8%至15.1 GWh，市占率从2020年全年的25%再度扩大至31.5%，而其最大竞争对手LG化学以及松下的市占率则分别下降至20.5%和16.7%，松下市占率一年内下降近10个百分点。\n但高处不胜寒，宁德时代仍然需要面对海内外不少竞争对手。\n在海外，有LG化学等企业虎视眈眈；在国内，比亚迪已经对宁德时代构成了威胁。去年3月，比亚迪发布了基于磷酸铁锂材料的刀片电池，并逐渐从自用开放给第三方车企。\n因而，此时与特斯拉加深绑定，对宁德时代而言，无论是对动力电池装机量，还是进一步提升海内外市场竞争力，或许都存在一些好处。\n“C位”挑战\n虽然本次是特斯拉的电池合约将宁德时代送上C位，但这家万亿市值的公司，在新能源领域的地位已经十分稳固。\n作为全球头部动力电池供应商，宁德时代不仅为特斯拉等新造车代表供货，还与奔驰、本田等传统车企合作。国内新造车三家企业也选择了宁德时代的动力电池。\n韩国新能源分析机构SNE统计称，宁德时代已连续四年在全球动力电池装车量排名中居于首位。就在2020年，宁德时代动力电池的全球装车量为34GWh，市场份额接近四分之一。\n随着新能源板块的火爆，这家幕后巨头从去年开始走向台前，获得资本关注。例如，在2020年清仓蔚来后，高瓴资本就转而重仓宁德时代，认购了100亿元的定增。\n股价飙升的宁德时代，也受到更多投资者的关注。5月21日，宁德时代还接待了33家机构投资者共54人的调研，其中包括大型公募基金、外资机构以及券商资管等。这些机构投资者们关心的话题，主要在固态电池发展、公司三大战略方向以及光伏领域的布局等方面。\n被外界认知的不止有宁德时代，其董事长曾毓群也屡次跻身福布斯富豪榜的前列。\n截至6月28日上午11点半，福布斯富豪榜的实时榜单显示，宁德时代董事长曾毓群身价达到447亿美元（约合2888亿元人民币），位列全球第30位。这是他首次进入榜单前30名。\n而就在5月初，曾毓群成功问鼎香港首富。他以345亿美元的身价，动摇了被“李氏家族”霸榜20余年的香港首富榜，个人财富一度超过李兆基（321亿美元）和李嘉诚（344亿美元）。\n彼时，曾毓群在全球富豪榜上的排名升至全球第42名，而今他已经突围进前30名。\n一年之内，宁德时代多次出圈，在一、二级市场备受关注。作为A股第一家万亿市值的科技公司，宁德时代在C位上又能矗立多久？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"300750":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1299,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153997113,"gmtCreate":1625002161232,"gmtModify":1703849722632,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9b8f75db4c14f22597f42cb3752e117","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584066196704033","idStr":"3584066196704033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153997113","repostId":"1162626672","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162626672","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624950782,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162626672?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-29 15:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Buffett's 8 valuable lessons and lessons from the pandemic","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162626672","media":"智通财经 ","summary":"许多人成功的方法之一是把每一次危机都当作一个机会来对待。尽管巴菲特向慈善机构捐赠了数十亿美元，但他的净资产在今年3月突破了1000亿美元大关。巴菲特不仅变得更富有，还为其他投资者带来了一些宝贵的经验教","content":"<p><b>One of the ways many people succeed is to treat every crisis as an opportunity.</b>Although Buffett has donated billions to charity, his net worth crossed the $100 billion mark in March of this year. Not only has Buffett gotten richer, but he has brought some valuable lessons for other investors.</p><p>01 New investment? Utilizing the S&P 500</p><p>At Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting last month, Buffett talked about one of his favorite investments — one that emerged as a winner during the pandemic.</p><p>\"I recommend the S&P 500 index fund and have been recommending it to people for a long time,\" Buffett said, adding that 90 percent of the money he leaves to his wife will go to the S&P 500 after his death.</p><p>S&P 500 index funds are mutual funds or ETFs that mimic the familiar stock indices that track the 500 largest companies in the United States. Despite the pandemic, the S&P 500 surged 16% in 2020 and hit a new high in 2021.</p><p>\"I like Berkshire, but I think someone who knows nothing about stocks and doesn't have any special feelings for Berkshire, they should buy the S&P 500,\" Buffett told a shareholder meeting in Los Angeles.</p><p>02 Be Practical-Even When the Market Is Losing Its Mind</p><p>Buffett recommends a long-term and practical approach for investors, rather than \"making 30 or 40 trades a day.\"</p><p>During the conference, Buffett presented two slides showing the 20 largest companies in the world by market capitalization today and in 1989. None of the companies that made the list in' 89 were from the 2021 edition. The lesson is: Things are impermanent, and picking winners is not easy.</p><p>\"If you only own diversified stocks, like U.S. stocks, that would be my preference, but hold them for more than 30 years,\" he said.</p><p>03 Don't expect a pension</p><p>One of the more worrying trends Buffett delved into at the Berkshire Hathaway conference is the growing precariousness of many state pension funds, an issue he said he's been watching since 2013.</p><p>\"The pension situation in a lot of states is terrible,\" Buffett said. \"It's not getting better. Obviously, it's not getting better at all.\"</p><p>The pandemic has killed state finances and will only exacerbate the pension problem for which there is currently no long-term solution. Before the pandemic began, state pension plans already lacked $1 trillion to meet future obligations to retirees, according to Pew Charitable Trusts.</p><p>04 Investors should be wary of certain investments</p><p>Buffett dumped airline stocks because of COVID-19.</p><p>The pandemic crisis devastated the entire aviation industry, yet airlines survived with the help of the government. But without that support, you'd see a whole new plane crash. The industry still has months to go before normal business (and normal profit margins) can resume.</p><p>\"I still don't want to buy an airline,\" Buffett told his Berkshire shareholders.</p><p>Shares of Delta Air Lines (DAL), one of the airlines Berkshire sold off from its portfolio, fell by more than half between March 1 and May 15 last year. Since then, the stock and other major U.S. airlines have recovered, but Buffett has little confidence in the economic fundamentals of the aviation industry.</p><p>05 Stick to your long-term plans</p><p>Stick to your financial goals, Buffett says. Buffett remains confident that the U.S. economy will rebound from the COVID-19 crisis, but he told shareholders that the future is far from certain.</p><p>\"You can bet on the United States, but you have to be careful how you bet,\" he said. He later reiterated that the world can change in \"very, very dramatic ways\".</p><p>Buffett has never wavered in his belief that holding stocks for a long time is the right investment strategy for a stable financial future. He was even reminded at the Berkshire conference that he once said it was \"too short\" to hold a stock forever.</p><p>06 Making the most of low interest rates</p><p>With interest rates falling, Buffett says it's a good time to borrow money.</p><p>With the Federal Reserve pledging to keep its key interest rate near zero, Buffett sees an excellent opportunity for borrowers in 2021.</p><p>\"These are fascinating times,\" Buffett told investors, adding that the low interest rate environment is \"very pleasant.\"</p><p>\"The economy fell off a cliff in March 2020,\" Buffett said. \"Through the actions of the Federal Reserve, it was brought back to life in a very effective way.\"</p><p>07 Avoiding Credit Card Debt</p><p>If you have credit card debt, get rid of it, Buffett said.</p><p>The pandemic has led to business closures and layoffs, forcing millions of Americans to rely on credit cards for basic financial needs. It's a good survival strategy, but the resulting balance and high interest rates can create long-term financial stress.</p><p>At Berkshire's 2020 online shareholder meeting, he recalled the advice he gave to a friend who got a windfall and was considering the smartest way to spend. She told Buffett that she still had credit card debt — at 18% interest.</p><p>Buffett remembers telling her, \"If I had 18% debt, the first thing I would do with the money on hand is pay it off.\"\"You can't borrow money at this rate for the rest of your life and be better off.\"</p><p>08 Always Prepare for the Worst</p><p>Buffett says a \"catastrophe\" is coming. It's not for nothing to call Buffett an \"oracle\". In 2019, he warned of a \"megacatastrophe\" ahead of the world that would dwarf the chaos caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Michael.</p><p>When the pandemic first hit the U.S., Buffett said in an interview, \"I always felt that a pandemic was going to happen sooner or later.\"</p><p>You would think that someone who has invested so much in the insurance industry would have the foresight — Berkshire owns Geico and several other insurers — that preparing for the worst is a central part of the business model.</p><p>\"We've seen some strange things happening in the world over the last 15 months,\" he told his investors this year. \"And we're always aware that weirder things are going to happen in the future.\"</p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buffett's 8 valuable lessons and lessons from the pandemic</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuffett's 8 valuable lessons and lessons from the pandemic\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经 </strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-29 15:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>One of the ways many people succeed is to treat every crisis as an opportunity.</b>Although Buffett has donated billions to charity, his net worth crossed the $100 billion mark in March of this year. Not only has Buffett gotten richer, but he has brought some valuable lessons for other investors.</p><p>01 New investment? Utilizing the S&P 500</p><p>At Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting last month, Buffett talked about one of his favorite investments — one that emerged as a winner during the pandemic.</p><p>\"I recommend the S&P 500 index fund and have been recommending it to people for a long time,\" Buffett said, adding that 90 percent of the money he leaves to his wife will go to the S&P 500 after his death.</p><p>S&P 500 index funds are mutual funds or ETFs that mimic the familiar stock indices that track the 500 largest companies in the United States. Despite the pandemic, the S&P 500 surged 16% in 2020 and hit a new high in 2021.</p><p>\"I like Berkshire, but I think someone who knows nothing about stocks and doesn't have any special feelings for Berkshire, they should buy the S&P 500,\" Buffett told a shareholder meeting in Los Angeles.</p><p>02 Be Practical-Even When the Market Is Losing Its Mind</p><p>Buffett recommends a long-term and practical approach for investors, rather than \"making 30 or 40 trades a day.\"</p><p>During the conference, Buffett presented two slides showing the 20 largest companies in the world by market capitalization today and in 1989. None of the companies that made the list in' 89 were from the 2021 edition. The lesson is: Things are impermanent, and picking winners is not easy.</p><p>\"If you only own diversified stocks, like U.S. stocks, that would be my preference, but hold them for more than 30 years,\" he said.</p><p>03 Don't expect a pension</p><p>One of the more worrying trends Buffett delved into at the Berkshire Hathaway conference is the growing precariousness of many state pension funds, an issue he said he's been watching since 2013.</p><p>\"The pension situation in a lot of states is terrible,\" Buffett said. \"It's not getting better. Obviously, it's not getting better at all.\"</p><p>The pandemic has killed state finances and will only exacerbate the pension problem for which there is currently no long-term solution. Before the pandemic began, state pension plans already lacked $1 trillion to meet future obligations to retirees, according to Pew Charitable Trusts.</p><p>04 Investors should be wary of certain investments</p><p>Buffett dumped airline stocks because of COVID-19.</p><p>The pandemic crisis devastated the entire aviation industry, yet airlines survived with the help of the government. But without that support, you'd see a whole new plane crash. The industry still has months to go before normal business (and normal profit margins) can resume.</p><p>\"I still don't want to buy an airline,\" Buffett told his Berkshire shareholders.</p><p>Shares of Delta Air Lines (DAL), one of the airlines Berkshire sold off from its portfolio, fell by more than half between March 1 and May 15 last year. Since then, the stock and other major U.S. airlines have recovered, but Buffett has little confidence in the economic fundamentals of the aviation industry.</p><p>05 Stick to your long-term plans</p><p>Stick to your financial goals, Buffett says. Buffett remains confident that the U.S. economy will rebound from the COVID-19 crisis, but he told shareholders that the future is far from certain.</p><p>\"You can bet on the United States, but you have to be careful how you bet,\" he said. He later reiterated that the world can change in \"very, very dramatic ways\".</p><p>Buffett has never wavered in his belief that holding stocks for a long time is the right investment strategy for a stable financial future. He was even reminded at the Berkshire conference that he once said it was \"too short\" to hold a stock forever.</p><p>06 Making the most of low interest rates</p><p>With interest rates falling, Buffett says it's a good time to borrow money.</p><p>With the Federal Reserve pledging to keep its key interest rate near zero, Buffett sees an excellent opportunity for borrowers in 2021.</p><p>\"These are fascinating times,\" Buffett told investors, adding that the low interest rate environment is \"very pleasant.\"</p><p>\"The economy fell off a cliff in March 2020,\" Buffett said. \"Through the actions of the Federal Reserve, it was brought back to life in a very effective way.\"</p><p>07 Avoiding Credit Card Debt</p><p>If you have credit card debt, get rid of it, Buffett said.</p><p>The pandemic has led to business closures and layoffs, forcing millions of Americans to rely on credit cards for basic financial needs. It's a good survival strategy, but the resulting balance and high interest rates can create long-term financial stress.</p><p>At Berkshire's 2020 online shareholder meeting, he recalled the advice he gave to a friend who got a windfall and was considering the smartest way to spend. She told Buffett that she still had credit card debt — at 18% interest.</p><p>Buffett remembers telling her, \"If I had 18% debt, the first thing I would do with the money on hand is pay it off.\"\"You can't borrow money at this rate for the rest of your life and be better off.\"</p><p>08 Always Prepare for the Worst</p><p>Buffett says a \"catastrophe\" is coming. It's not for nothing to call Buffett an \"oracle\". In 2019, he warned of a \"megacatastrophe\" ahead of the world that would dwarf the chaos caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Michael.</p><p>When the pandemic first hit the U.S., Buffett said in an interview, \"I always felt that a pandemic was going to happen sooner or later.\"</p><p>You would think that someone who has invested so much in the insurance industry would have the foresight — Berkshire owns Geico and several other insurers — that preparing for the worst is a central part of the business model.</p><p>\"We've seen some strange things happening in the world over the last 15 months,\" he told his investors this year. \"And we're always aware that weirder things are going to happen in the future.\"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/503261.html\">智通财经 </a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9beffeecb928009bf6287e307899ffe3","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/503261.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162626672","content_text":"许多人成功的方法之一是把每一次危机都当作一个机会来对待。尽管巴菲特向慈善机构捐赠了数十亿美元，但他的净资产在今年3月突破了1000亿美元大关。巴菲特不仅变得更富有，还为其他投资者带来了一些宝贵的经验教训。\n01  新投资吗?利用标普500\n在上个月伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的年会上，巴菲特谈到了他最喜欢的一项投资——该投资在疫情期间成为赢家。\n巴菲特说:“我推荐标普500指数基金，并且长期以来一直向人们推荐。”他还说，在他去世后，他留给妻子的90%的钱将进入标普500基金。\n标普500指数基金是模仿人们熟悉的跟踪美国500家最大公司的股票指数的共同基金或ETF。尽管疫情爆发，标普500指数在2020年飙升16%，并在2021年创下新高。\n巴菲特在洛杉矶的股东大会上表示:“我喜欢伯克希尔，但我认为一个对股票一无所知，对伯克希尔没有任何特殊感觉的人，他们应该购买标普500指数。”\n02  要实际——即使在市场失去理智的时候\n巴菲特建议投资者长期且实际的方法，而不是“每天进行30或40笔交易。”\n在会议期间，巴菲特展示了两张幻灯片，展示了当今和1989年全球市值最大的20家公司。89年上榜的公司没有一家是2021年版的。教训是:世事无常，挑选赢家并不容易。\n\"如果你只持有多元化的股票，比如美国股票，那将是我的偏好，但要持有超过30年，\"他说。\n03  不要指望养老金\n巴菲特在伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的会议上深入研究的一个更令人担忧的趋势，许多州养老基金的地位越来越不稳定，他说他从2013年就开始关注这个问题。\n巴菲特说:“很多州的养老金状况都很糟糕。”“情况并没有好转。显然，情况一点也没有好转。”\n疫情已经扼杀了各州的财政，只会加剧目前没有长期解决方案的养老金问题。Pew Charitable Trusts的数据显示，在大流行开始之前，国家养老金计划已经缺乏1万亿美元的资金来满足未来对退休人员的义务。\n04  投资者应该对某些投资保持警惕\n巴菲特因为COVID-19的原因抛售了航空股。\n疫情危机摧毁了整个航空行业，然而航空公司在政府的帮助下幸存下来。但如果没有这种支持，你会看到一场全新的空难。要想恢复正常的业务(以及正常的利润率)，该行业还有好几个月的时间。\n“我还是不想买航空公司，”巴菲特告诉他的伯克希尔股东。\n达美航空(DAL)是伯克希尔从其投资组合中抛售的航空公司之一，该公司股价在去年3月1日至5月15日期间下跌了一半以上。此后，该股和美国其他主要航空公司的股价都有所回升，但巴菲特对航空业的经济基本面没有多大信心。\n05  坚持你的长期计划\n巴菲特说，要坚持你的财务目标。巴菲特仍然相信，美国经济将从COVID - 19危机中反弹，但他告诉股东，未来远非确定。\n“你可以押注美国，但你必须小心如何押注，”他说。他后来重申，世界可以以“非常、非常戏剧性的方式”发生变化。\n巴菲特从来没有动摇过他的信念，长期持有股票是一个稳定的财务未来的正确投资策略。在伯克希尔的会议上，他甚至被提醒说，他曾经说过永远持有一只股票“太短了”。\n06  充分利用低利率\n随着利率的下降，巴菲特说现在是借钱的好时机。\n由于美联储承诺将关键利率维持在接近零的水平，巴菲特认为2021年借款人将有极好的机会。\n“这是一个迷人的时代，”巴菲特告诉投资者，并补充说低利率环境“非常令人愉快”。\n“经济在2020年3月跌落悬崖，”巴菲特说。“通过美联储的行动，它以一种非常有效的方式复活了。”\n07  避免信用卡债务\n巴菲特说，如果你有信用卡债务，那就摆脱它。\n疫情导致企业关闭和裁员，迫使数百万美国人依靠信用卡来满足基本的金融需求。这是一个很好的生存策略，但由此产生的平衡和高利率会造成长期的财务压力。\n在伯克希尔2020年的在线股东大会上，他回忆了自己给一位获得意外之财的朋友的建议，这位朋友当时正在考虑最明智的消费方式。她告诉巴菲特，她还有信用卡债务——利息为18%。\n巴菲特记得对她说:“如果我有18%的债务，我会用手头的钱做的第一件事就是还清。”“你不可能一辈子都以这样的利率借钱，然后过得更好。”\n08  总是做最坏打算\n巴菲特说，一场“大灾难”即将来临。称巴菲特为“神谕”不是没有原因的。2019年，他警告说，世界将迎来一场“特大灾难”，这将使卡特里娜飓风和迈克尔飓风造成的混乱相形见绌。\n当疫情首次袭击美国时，巴菲特在一次采访中说，“我一直觉得一场大流行迟早会发生。”\n你可能会认为，在保险业投入如此之多的人会有这样的远见——伯克希尔哈撒韦拥有Geico和其他几家保险公司——为最坏的情况做准备是商业模式的核心部分。\n“过去15个月里，我们看到世界上发生了一些奇怪的事情，”他今年告诉他的投资者。“而且我们总是意识到未来会发生更奇怪的事情。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153997928,"gmtCreate":1625002141264,"gmtModify":1703849722305,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9b8f75db4c14f22597f42cb3752e117","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584066196704033","idStr":"3584066196704033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wiw","listText":"wiw","text":"wiw","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153997928","repostId":"1106873810","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106873810","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624989419,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1106873810?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 01:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Ding Dong Maicai officially landed on NYSE and opened 21% on the first day","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106873810","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"北京时间6月30日，叮咚买菜正式登陆纽交所，首日开涨21%，此前给出的IPO发行价为每份ADS 23.50美元。\n\n上市前夕发行规模缩减7成\n叮咚买菜在上市前夜紧急更新了IPO招股书，据最新招股书显示","content":"<p>On June 30th, Beijing time, Ding Dong Maicai officially landed on the New York Stock Exchange, rising by 21% on the first day. The previous IPO issue price was $23.50 per ADS.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8019015b6d73a8f99bab4121482e7be7\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"595\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>On the eve of listing, the issuance scale was reduced by 70%</b></p><p>Dingdong Maicai urgently updated its IPO prospectus on the eve of its listing. According to the latest prospectus, Dingdong Maicai reduced its goal of listing and financing in the United States to about a quarter of the original, that is, it seeks to raise up to 94.4 million US dollars, which is 74% lower than the originally planned financing of 357 million US dollars. The number of depositary shares (ADS) issued has also been cut from 14 million shares to 3.7 million shares, with a price range of 23.50 to 25.50 US dollars.</p><p>A week ago, Dingdong Maicai's first updated prospectus showed that it would publicly issue 14 million American depositary shares. At that time, it could raise nearly $360 million according to the upper limit of the offering price range. In contrast, the last announced fundraising scale was reduced to a quarter of the previous quota, that is, the overall reduction was over 70%.</p><p><b>About Dingdong Grocery Buying</b></p><p>Dingdong Maicai is headquartered in Shanghai and operates its own grocery app. Consumers can buy fresh food on demand through the \"front warehouse\" network. The so-called front warehouse is a warehouse located close to residential areas according to the established strategy, so as to ensure that Ding Dong's groceries can be delivered to your door within 30 minutes as promised. Their services have now covered a range of major cities such as Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen and Hangzhou.</p><p>Ding Dong Maicai was born in 2017. Liang Changlin, the founder and CEO, had many successful entrepreneurial experiences before, so it quickly attracted the support of a series of venture capital, including Sequoia China and Qiming Venture Capital. In addition, such as Tiger Global, Gaorong Capital and Dachen Caizhi were also among the shareholders of the company. With the support of strong capital, it took Ding Dong only seven months to buy groceries, and the number of its front warehouses tripled to 345.</p><p>According to reports, in February 2020, against the background of the outbreak of COVID-19, Dingdong Maicai had to execute about 300,000 orders every day in Shanghai, and the company's total revenue that year also reached about 1.7 billion US dollars. As of January 2021, Dingdong Maicai's business has covered nearly 30 cities across the country, with about 1,000 front-end warehouses and a monthly user base of about 6.9 million.</p><p>In this field, the main competitors of Dingdong Maicai include Alibaba's Box Horse, Meituan Maicai, Daily Youxian and JD.COM Daojia.</p><p><b>Financial Performance</b></p><p>The recent financial performance of Dingdong Maicai can be roughly summarized as follows: the revenue has grown rapidly, but it is suspected to have peaked; Operating losses and net losses continued to expand, and the net loss ratio fluctuated; The burning of money is considerable, and the free cash flow is still negative.</p><p>Specifically, in 2020, Dingdong's grocery revenue reached 11.336 billion yuan, a 192.16% increase from 3.88 billion yuan in 2019. In the first quarter of 2021, the company's revenue was 3.802 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.01%.</p><p>In 2020, Dingdong Maicai's operating loss was RMB3.162 billion, representing an increase of 78.42% from RMB1.741 billion in 2019. In the first quarter of 2021, the company's operating loss was RMB1.334 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 352.20%.</p><p>In 2020, Dingdong Maicai's net loss was RMB3.175 billion, an increase of 69.51% from RMB1.873 billion in 2019. In the first quarter of 2021, the company's net loss was RMB1.385 billion, an increase of 465.31% year-on-year.</p><p>In 2020, the net loss rate of Dingdong Maicai was 28.0%, which was significantly lower than 48.3% in 2019. However, in the first quarter of 2021, the net loss rate soared from 9.4% in the same period of the previous year to 36.4%.</p><p>As of March 31, 2021, Dingdong Maicai had total liabilities of US$898 million and cash and equivalents held of US$973 million. For the twelve months ended March 31, 2021, the Company's free cash flow was-$155 million.</p><p><b>Analysis Comments</b></p><p>According to the established strategy, the profit of Dingdong Maicai mainly comes from the sales of fresh food and other commodities completed through app. However, at present, they are far from achieving profitability, and they can't see a clear roadmap, so that the front warehouse model itself adopted by Dingdong Maicai and other competitors is questioned by market observers from time to time.</p><p>So far, Ding Dong has failed to achieve profitability, and from the financial data, their losses even have the momentum of expanding, and there is no clear profit prospect at all.</p><p>Although the market where Ding Dong groceries is located has a bright future in theory, the fierce competition and low profit margins here are well known. For example, it is reported that the order execution cost of Ding Dong's grocery purchase, including distribution fee, packaging fee, logistics cost, etc., will be twice the net revenue of the order itself in 2020.</p><p>This means that no matter how the number of orders of the company grows, it is not enough for Ding Dong to turn losses into profits in a short time, because the fact is that the more orders, the greater the loss. In fact, the front warehouse mode itself is a \"gold-swallowing beast\", and it is already a severe challenge for the company to control the burning speed of this mode.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ding Dong Maicai officially landed on NYSE and opened 21% on the first day</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDing Dong Maicai officially landed on NYSE and opened 21% on the first day\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-30 01:56</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 30th, Beijing time, Ding Dong Maicai officially landed on the New York Stock Exchange, rising by 21% on the first day. The previous IPO issue price was $23.50 per ADS.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8019015b6d73a8f99bab4121482e7be7\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"595\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>On the eve of listing, the issuance scale was reduced by 70%</b></p><p>Dingdong Maicai urgently updated its IPO prospectus on the eve of its listing. According to the latest prospectus, Dingdong Maicai reduced its goal of listing and financing in the United States to about a quarter of the original, that is, it seeks to raise up to 94.4 million US dollars, which is 74% lower than the originally planned financing of 357 million US dollars. The number of depositary shares (ADS) issued has also been cut from 14 million shares to 3.7 million shares, with a price range of 23.50 to 25.50 US dollars.</p><p>A week ago, Dingdong Maicai's first updated prospectus showed that it would publicly issue 14 million American depositary shares. At that time, it could raise nearly $360 million according to the upper limit of the offering price range. In contrast, the last announced fundraising scale was reduced to a quarter of the previous quota, that is, the overall reduction was over 70%.</p><p><b>About Dingdong Grocery Buying</b></p><p>Dingdong Maicai is headquartered in Shanghai and operates its own grocery app. Consumers can buy fresh food on demand through the \"front warehouse\" network. The so-called front warehouse is a warehouse located close to residential areas according to the established strategy, so as to ensure that Ding Dong's groceries can be delivered to your door within 30 minutes as promised. Their services have now covered a range of major cities such as Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen and Hangzhou.</p><p>Ding Dong Maicai was born in 2017. Liang Changlin, the founder and CEO, had many successful entrepreneurial experiences before, so it quickly attracted the support of a series of venture capital, including Sequoia China and Qiming Venture Capital. In addition, such as Tiger Global, Gaorong Capital and Dachen Caizhi were also among the shareholders of the company. With the support of strong capital, it took Ding Dong only seven months to buy groceries, and the number of its front warehouses tripled to 345.</p><p>According to reports, in February 2020, against the background of the outbreak of COVID-19, Dingdong Maicai had to execute about 300,000 orders every day in Shanghai, and the company's total revenue that year also reached about 1.7 billion US dollars. As of January 2021, Dingdong Maicai's business has covered nearly 30 cities across the country, with about 1,000 front-end warehouses and a monthly user base of about 6.9 million.</p><p>In this field, the main competitors of Dingdong Maicai include Alibaba's Box Horse, Meituan Maicai, Daily Youxian and JD.COM Daojia.</p><p><b>Financial Performance</b></p><p>The recent financial performance of Dingdong Maicai can be roughly summarized as follows: the revenue has grown rapidly, but it is suspected to have peaked; Operating losses and net losses continued to expand, and the net loss ratio fluctuated; The burning of money is considerable, and the free cash flow is still negative.</p><p>Specifically, in 2020, Dingdong's grocery revenue reached 11.336 billion yuan, a 192.16% increase from 3.88 billion yuan in 2019. In the first quarter of 2021, the company's revenue was 3.802 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.01%.</p><p>In 2020, Dingdong Maicai's operating loss was RMB3.162 billion, representing an increase of 78.42% from RMB1.741 billion in 2019. In the first quarter of 2021, the company's operating loss was RMB1.334 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 352.20%.</p><p>In 2020, Dingdong Maicai's net loss was RMB3.175 billion, an increase of 69.51% from RMB1.873 billion in 2019. In the first quarter of 2021, the company's net loss was RMB1.385 billion, an increase of 465.31% year-on-year.</p><p>In 2020, the net loss rate of Dingdong Maicai was 28.0%, which was significantly lower than 48.3% in 2019. However, in the first quarter of 2021, the net loss rate soared from 9.4% in the same period of the previous year to 36.4%.</p><p>As of March 31, 2021, Dingdong Maicai had total liabilities of US$898 million and cash and equivalents held of US$973 million. For the twelve months ended March 31, 2021, the Company's free cash flow was-$155 million.</p><p><b>Analysis Comments</b></p><p>According to the established strategy, the profit of Dingdong Maicai mainly comes from the sales of fresh food and other commodities completed through app. However, at present, they are far from achieving profitability, and they can't see a clear roadmap, so that the front warehouse model itself adopted by Dingdong Maicai and other competitors is questioned by market observers from time to time.</p><p>So far, Ding Dong has failed to achieve profitability, and from the financial data, their losses even have the momentum of expanding, and there is no clear profit prospect at all.</p><p>Although the market where Ding Dong groceries is located has a bright future in theory, the fierce competition and low profit margins here are well known. For example, it is reported that the order execution cost of Ding Dong's grocery purchase, including distribution fee, packaging fee, logistics cost, etc., will be twice the net revenue of the order itself in 2020.</p><p>This means that no matter how the number of orders of the company grows, it is not enough for Ding Dong to turn losses into profits in a short time, because the fact is that the more orders, the greater the loss. In fact, the front warehouse mode itself is a \"gold-swallowing beast\", and it is already a severe challenge for the company to control the burning speed of this mode.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bdbf77f2a44d0a051afa32e60a46fbf","relate_stocks":{"DDL":"叮咚买菜"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106873810","content_text":"北京时间6月30日，叮咚买菜正式登陆纽交所，首日开涨21%，此前给出的IPO发行价为每份ADS 23.50美元。\n\n上市前夕发行规模缩减7成\n叮咚买菜在上市前夜紧急更新了IPO招股书，据最新招股书显示，叮咚买菜将在美国上市融资的目标降低到了原来的四分之一左右，即寻求至多融资9440万美元，比原计划融资的3.57亿美元下降了74%，存托股票(ADS) 发行数量也从1400万股砍到了370万股，价格区间为23.50美元至25.50美元。\n一周前，叮咚买菜首次更新的招股书显示其将公开发行1400万股美国存托股票，彼时按照发行价区间上限计算可筹资达到近3.6亿美元。对比之下，最近一次宣布的募资规模缩减至此前额度的四分之一，即总体缩减幅度超70%。\n关于叮咚买菜\n叮咚买菜总部位于上海，运营着自己的买菜app，消费者可以通过“前置仓”网络购买按需生鲜食品。所谓前置仓，是按照既定策略配置在接近居民区的仓库，确保叮咚买菜能够按照承诺，在三十分钟内送货上门。他们的服务目前已经覆盖了上海、北京、深圳和杭州等一系列主要城市。\n叮咚买菜诞生于2017年，创始人兼首席执行官梁昌霖之前就有多次成功创业的经历，因此很快就吸引了一系列风投资本的支持，包括红杉中国、启明创投等，此外诸如老虎环球、高榕资本、达晨财智等也都在公司股东之列。在雄厚的资本支持下，叮咚买菜只用了七个月时间，就让其前置仓数量增长了三倍，达到了345处。\n据报道，2020年2月，在新冠病毒疫情大爆发的背景下，叮咚买菜在上海每天都要执行大约30万笔订单，公司当年的总营收也达到了大约17亿美元。截至2021年1月，叮咚买菜的业务已经覆盖全国近三十个城市，拥有大约一千家前置仓，每月用户群达到大约690万。\n在这个领域当中，叮咚买菜主要的竞争对手包括阿里巴巴旗下盒马、美团买菜、每日优鲜和京东到家等。\n财务表现\n叮咚买菜近期的财务表现可以大致概括如下：营收高速增长，但疑似已经见顶；运营亏损和净亏损持续扩大，净亏损率起伏不定；烧钱可观，自由现金流依然为负数。\n具体而言，2020年当中，叮咚买菜营收达到113.36亿元人民币，较之2019年的38.80亿元猛增192.16%，2021年第一季度，公司营收38.02亿元，同比增长46.01%。\n2020年当中，叮咚买菜运营亏损31.62亿元人民币，较之2019年的17.41亿元扩大78.42%，2021年第一季度，公司运营亏损13.34亿元，同比扩大352.20%。\n2020年当中，叮咚买菜净亏损31.75亿元人民币，较之2019年的18.73亿元扩大69.51%，2021年第一季度，公司净亏损13.85亿元，同比扩大465.31%。\n2020年当中，叮咚买菜净亏损率28.0%，较之2019年的48.3%大幅降低，但是2021年第一季度，净亏损率又从前一年同期的9.4%猛增到了36.4%。\n截至2021年3月31日，叮咚买菜总负债8.98亿美元，持有现金及等价物9.73亿美元。截至2021年3月31日的十二个月当中，公司自由现金流-1.55亿美元。\n分析评论\n按照既定策略，叮咚买菜的利润主要是来自于通过app完成的生鲜食品和其他各种商品的销售，只是目前，他们还远没有到实现盈利的地步，也看不到清晰的路线图，以至于叮咚买菜和其他竞争对手所采用的前置仓模式本身，都不时受到市场观察家们的质疑。\n迄今为止，叮咚买菜都未能实现盈利，而且从财务数据看，他们的亏损甚至还有扩大的势头，根本看不到明确的盈利前景。\n叮咚买菜所在的市场虽然理论上说来前途远大，但是这里的竞争之激烈和利润率之低也是人尽皆知。比如据报道，叮咚买菜的订单执行成本包括配送费、包装费、物流成本等在内，在2020年内要两倍于订单本身的净营收。\n这也就意味着，不管公司的订单数量如何增长，都不足以让叮咚买菜在短期之内扭亏为盈，因为事实就是，订单越多，亏损越大。事实上，前置仓模式本身就是一头“吞金兽”，要控制这种模式的烧钱速度，已经是摆在公司面前的严峻挑战。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DDL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1067,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159276056,"gmtCreate":1624972771375,"gmtModify":1703849121491,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9b8f75db4c14f22597f42cb3752e117","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584066196704033","idStr":"3584066196704033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159276056","repostId":"1105605698","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105605698","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624954691,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105605698?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-29 16:18","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Tiger Dark Plate: Hutchison Medicine rose more than 24% after receiving more than 5 times subscription","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105605698","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月29日消息，和黄医药暗盘报50港元，较发行价涨24.69%。公司每股定价40.10港元，每手500股，将于6月30日（周三）港股上市。\n在此前的公开认购阶段，共有21,124人申购和黄医药，中签","content":"<p><b>June 29th news,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00013\">Hutchison Medicine</a>The dark market was reported at HK$ 50, up 24.69% from the issue price. The company is priced at HK$40.10 per share, with 500 shares per lot, and will be listed on Hong Kong stock market on June 30th (Wednesday).</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c71328f09b7afffec02526e1a4c0749\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"1303\"></p><p>In the previous public subscription stage, a total of 21,124 people subscribed for Hutchison Medicine, and 12,570 people won the lottery, with a first-hand winning rate of 60% and a subscription multiple of 5.23 times. The relevant data of Tiger Information are as follows:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/628ef5189a1a7f83007f5df29c3393a2\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Assignment Results:</b></p><p>Group A has 500 shares per lot, with a successful rate of 60% in one lot, and 80 lots are subscribed for a steady one.</p><p>The head of Group B was 150,000 shares (300 lots), and 118,500 shares (237 lots) were allocated.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22313a507c3fffb29ec9d94ea68b4422\" tg-width=\"522\" tg-height=\"724\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/503c30b9e0e0b2076b068e0c6b33cfde\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"204\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">It is reported that the company is a global biomedical company in the commercialization stage, focusing on the discovery, development and commercialization of targeted therapies and immunotherapies for the treatment of cancer and immune diseases. Previously, Hutchison<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600056\">CHINA PHARMA</a>It has been listed on NASDAQ in the United States and London Stock Exchange in the United Kingdom respectively.</p><p>In addition to the oncology/immunology business, the Company's other businesses have established large-scale and profitable drug marketing and distribution capabilities, mainly in the manufacture, marketing and distribution of prescription drugs in China.</p><p>In 2018, fruquintinib was approved for the treatment of third-line mCRC patients, making Chi-Med the first Chinese biopharmaceutical company to bring its own innovative anti-tumor drugs to unconditional approval and marketing. Since then, the company has established an oncology commercialization team comprising more than 520 employees in China to market fruquintinib and other products of the company if approved. The commercial team launched the company's second self-developed oncology drug, surufatinib, in early 2021 for the treatment of advanced non-pancreatic NET. The third drug independently developed by the company is savotinib for the treatment of lung cancer. The drug is currently undergoing final regulatory review and is expected to be approved for marketing in China as early as mid-2021. Another seven oncology drug candidates are currently in early clinical development in China, one of which transitioned to a Phase II registration intent study in April 2021 and the other target transitioned to a Phase II registration intent study in 2021.</p><p>In 2018, 2019 and 2020, the Company's total revenue was US$214 million, US$205 million and US$228 million, respectively, and its net loss was US$71.286 million, US$106 million and US$126 million, respectively.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e2a2fd070425da4e388fcaa64f4383c\" tg-width=\"712\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In terms of industry, China's oncology drug market has grown rapidly in recent years and is expected to maintain a high growth rate in the near future, growing to US$30.4 billion in 2020 and accounting for 13.6% of China's pharmaceutical market at a CAGR of 12.1%. It is expected to maintain a double-digit annual growth rate from 2020 to 2030, with the market expected to reach US$105.1 billion in 2030, accounting for 22.8% of the Chinese pharmaceutical market.</p><p>In terms of cornerstone investors, The company has partnered with five cornerstone investors: The Carlyle Group Inc., Canadian Pension Fund Investment Corporation, Pan<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600558\">Atlantic Ocean</a>The Investment Group, HBM Healthcare Investments and CICC Qirong Fund entered into the Cornerstone Investment Agreement whereby the Cornerstone Investors have agreed to subscribe for the Offer Shares as part of the International Offering at an aggregate subscription price of approximately HK$2,535 million.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbfb21e9eb4f2e8fc69147217b705131\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In terms of fundraising, the Company intends to use the net proceeds from the Global Offering for the following purposes: approximately HK$2.22 billion will be used to advance the late-stage clinical plans of savolitinib, surufatinib, fruquintinib, HMPL-689 and HMPL-523 for registration trials and potential submission of NDA applications; Approximately HK$445 million will be used to support further proof-of-concept studies and fund in-house research to continue to expand the Company's cancer and immune disease product portfolio, including development costs for the early clinical and preclinical stage drug candidate pipeline; Approximately HK$888 million will be used to further enhance the Company's comprehensive capabilities in commercialization, clinical, regulatory and manufacturing; Approximately HK$666 million will fund potential global business development and strategic acquisition opportunities to complement the Company's internal research and development activities and enhance the Company's current pipeline of drug candidates.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tiger Dark Plate: Hutchison Medicine rose more than 24% after receiving more than 5 times subscription</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTiger Dark Plate: Hutchison Medicine rose more than 24% after receiving more than 5 times subscription\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-29 16:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>June 29th news,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00013\">Hutchison Medicine</a>The dark market was reported at HK$ 50, up 24.69% from the issue price. The company is priced at HK$40.10 per share, with 500 shares per lot, and will be listed on Hong Kong stock market on June 30th (Wednesday).</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c71328f09b7afffec02526e1a4c0749\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"1303\"></p><p>In the previous public subscription stage, a total of 21,124 people subscribed for Hutchison Medicine, and 12,570 people won the lottery, with a first-hand winning rate of 60% and a subscription multiple of 5.23 times. The relevant data of Tiger Information are as follows:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/628ef5189a1a7f83007f5df29c3393a2\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Assignment Results:</b></p><p>Group A has 500 shares per lot, with a successful rate of 60% in one lot, and 80 lots are subscribed for a steady one.</p><p>The head of Group B was 150,000 shares (300 lots), and 118,500 shares (237 lots) were allocated.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22313a507c3fffb29ec9d94ea68b4422\" tg-width=\"522\" tg-height=\"724\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/503c30b9e0e0b2076b068e0c6b33cfde\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"204\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">It is reported that the company is a global biomedical company in the commercialization stage, focusing on the discovery, development and commercialization of targeted therapies and immunotherapies for the treatment of cancer and immune diseases. Previously, Hutchison<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600056\">CHINA PHARMA</a>It has been listed on NASDAQ in the United States and London Stock Exchange in the United Kingdom respectively.</p><p>In addition to the oncology/immunology business, the Company's other businesses have established large-scale and profitable drug marketing and distribution capabilities, mainly in the manufacture, marketing and distribution of prescription drugs in China.</p><p>In 2018, fruquintinib was approved for the treatment of third-line mCRC patients, making Chi-Med the first Chinese biopharmaceutical company to bring its own innovative anti-tumor drugs to unconditional approval and marketing. Since then, the company has established an oncology commercialization team comprising more than 520 employees in China to market fruquintinib and other products of the company if approved. The commercial team launched the company's second self-developed oncology drug, surufatinib, in early 2021 for the treatment of advanced non-pancreatic NET. The third drug independently developed by the company is savotinib for the treatment of lung cancer. The drug is currently undergoing final regulatory review and is expected to be approved for marketing in China as early as mid-2021. Another seven oncology drug candidates are currently in early clinical development in China, one of which transitioned to a Phase II registration intent study in April 2021 and the other target transitioned to a Phase II registration intent study in 2021.</p><p>In 2018, 2019 and 2020, the Company's total revenue was US$214 million, US$205 million and US$228 million, respectively, and its net loss was US$71.286 million, US$106 million and US$126 million, respectively.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e2a2fd070425da4e388fcaa64f4383c\" tg-width=\"712\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In terms of industry, China's oncology drug market has grown rapidly in recent years and is expected to maintain a high growth rate in the near future, growing to US$30.4 billion in 2020 and accounting for 13.6% of China's pharmaceutical market at a CAGR of 12.1%. It is expected to maintain a double-digit annual growth rate from 2020 to 2030, with the market expected to reach US$105.1 billion in 2030, accounting for 22.8% of the Chinese pharmaceutical market.</p><p>In terms of cornerstone investors, The company has partnered with five cornerstone investors: The Carlyle Group Inc., Canadian Pension Fund Investment Corporation, Pan<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600558\">Atlantic Ocean</a>The Investment Group, HBM Healthcare Investments and CICC Qirong Fund entered into the Cornerstone Investment Agreement whereby the Cornerstone Investors have agreed to subscribe for the Offer Shares as part of the International Offering at an aggregate subscription price of approximately HK$2,535 million.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbfb21e9eb4f2e8fc69147217b705131\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In terms of fundraising, the Company intends to use the net proceeds from the Global Offering for the following purposes: approximately HK$2.22 billion will be used to advance the late-stage clinical plans of savolitinib, surufatinib, fruquintinib, HMPL-689 and HMPL-523 for registration trials and potential submission of NDA applications; Approximately HK$445 million will be used to support further proof-of-concept studies and fund in-house research to continue to expand the Company's cancer and immune disease product portfolio, including development costs for the early clinical and preclinical stage drug candidate pipeline; Approximately HK$888 million will be used to further enhance the Company's comprehensive capabilities in commercialization, clinical, regulatory and manufacturing; Approximately HK$666 million will fund potential global business development and strategic acquisition opportunities to complement the Company's internal research and development activities and enhance the Company's current pipeline of drug candidates.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a30231cc9cc0d1a7584fb558e435db01","relate_stocks":{"00013":"和黄医药"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105605698","content_text":"6月29日消息，和黄医药暗盘报50港元，较发行价涨24.69%。公司每股定价40.10港元，每手500股，将于6月30日（周三）港股上市。\n在此前的公开认购阶段，共有21,124人申购和黄医药，中签人数12,570人，一手中签率60%，认购倍数5.23倍。老虎资讯整理相关数据如下表：分配结果：\n甲组每手500股，一手中签率60%，认购80手稳中一手。\n乙组头为15万股（300手），获配118500股（237手）。\n据悉，公司是一家处于商业化阶段的全球生物医药公司，专注于发现、开发及商业化治疗癌症及免疫性疾病的靶向疗法及免疫疗法，此前，和黄中国医药已经分别在美国纳斯达克和英国伦敦证交所上市 。\n除肿瘤╱免疫业务外，公司的其他业务已建立大规模兼有盈利的药物营销及分销能力，主要在中国生产、营销及分销处方药。\n于2018年，呋喹替尼获批用于治疗三线mCRC患者，使和黄医药成为首家将自主研发创新抗肿瘤药物带向无条件批准及上市的中国生物医药公司。自此，公司在中国组建由约520多名员工组成的肿瘤商业化团队，负责营销呋喹替尼及公司其他若获批的产品。商业团队于2021年初推出公司自主研发的第二种肿瘤药物索凡替尼，用于治疗晚期非胰腺NET。公司自主研发的第叁种药物是用于治疗肺癌的赛沃替尼。该药目前正在进行最终监管审评，有望最早于2021年年中在中国获批上市。另外七种肿瘤候选药物目前在中国处于早期临床开发阶段，其中一种于2021年4月过渡至II期註册意向研究，另一种目标于2021年过渡至II期註册意向研究。\n2018年、2019年及2020年，公司的收入总额分别为2.14亿美元、2.05亿美元、2.28亿美元，净亏损分别为7128.6万、1.06亿、1.26亿美元。行业方面，中国肿瘤药物市场近年增长迅速，并预期于不久将来一直维持高增长率,于2020年增至304亿美元及占中国医药市场的13.6%，复合年增长率为12.1%。预期于2020年至2030年间将保持每年双位数的增长幅度，2030年预期市场将达1,051亿美元，占中国医药市场的22.8%。\n基石投资者方面，公司已与五名基石投资者：即The Carlyle Group Inc.、加拿大养老基金投资公司、泛大西洋投资集团、HBM Healthcare Investments及中金启融基金订立基石投资协议，基石投资者已同意以总认购价约25.35亿港元认购发售股份以作为国际发售的一部分。筹资用途方面，公司拟将全球发售所得款项净额用于以下用途：约22.20亿港元将用于推进赛沃替尼、索凡替尼、呋喹替尼、HMPL-689及HMPL-523的后期临床计划以进行注册试验及潜在提交NDA申请；约4.45亿港元将用于支持进一步的概念验证研究，并资助内部研究以持续扩大公司的癌症及免疫疾病产品组合，包括早期临床及临床前阶段候选药物管线的开发成本；约8.88亿港元将用于进一步增强公司在商业化、临床、监管及生产方面的综合实力；约6.66亿港元将为潜在的全球业务发展及策略收购机会提供资金，以配合公司的内部研发活动，并提升公司目前的候选药物管线。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00013":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1035,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159278532,"gmtCreate":1624972758226,"gmtModify":1703849120838,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9b8f75db4c14f22597f42cb3752e117","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584066196704033","idStr":"3584066196704033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159278532","repostId":"1118894802","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118894802","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624955420,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1118894802?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-29 16:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Market Overview: The throne of \"one brother\" in Shenzhen changed hands! Haidilao \"boils\" against the trend","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118894802","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"港股\n港股三大指数全日呈单边下跌行情，市场整体情绪表现平淡。截至收盘，恒指跌0.94%报28994点，国指跌0.98%报10757点，恒生科技指数跌0.91%报8201点。\n\n盘面上，石油板块跌幅居前","content":"<p><b>Hong Kong stock</b></p><p>The three major indices of Hong Kong stocks showed a unilateral decline throughout the day, and the overall market sentiment was flat. As of the close, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.94% to 28,994 points, the H-Share Index fell 0.98% to 10,757 points, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 0.91% to 8,201 points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7f0b8ac73315eee841216419d34c674\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On the disk, the oil sector was among the top losers, and all three barrels of oil plunged, dragging down the market; Recently, strong biomedical stocks and port shipping stocks have been corrected across the board, financial stocks (insurance, securities firms, banks) have performed sluggishly, and energy stocks such as home appliance stocks, aviation stocks, medical beauty stocks, gas stocks, defense stocks, gambling stocks and coal have generally fallen; Big tech stocks are mixed,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">Netease-S</a>Against the trend, it rose by 3.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">JD Group-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">Baidu Group-SW</a>Closed higher,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a>Both fell; Catering stocks rebounded sharply,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">Haidilao</a>A surge of nearly 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00520\">Xiabuxiabu</a>up 4.5%; Photovoltaic stocks are strong, property management stocks continue to rise,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00873\">Shimao Services</a>Many shares continued to hit new high prices. The turnover of the market was HK$146.1 billion, and the net inflow of southbound funds was HK$963 million against the trend.</p><p><b>A Shares</b></p><p>The three major indexes were corrected, and the Shanghai Composite Index was weakly consolidated above the 30th line, closing down 0.92% to 3,573 points throughout the day, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.99% to 14,999 points, and the GEM Index fell 0.19% to 3,406 points. More than 3,100 shares in the two cities fell, and the market sentiment and profit-making effect dropped significantly. After seven trading days, the turnover returned to below one trillion yuan again, reaching 997.4 billion yuan, and the northbound capital sold 3.14 billion yuan in the whole day.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55bf301fcd48fb59b0f70e721046a291\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The concept performance was sluggish, and concept stocks such as military industry, finance, liquor, chips and 5G generally fell; Most funds flow to the concept of photovoltaics,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300118\">Oriental Sunrise</a>Wait for the daily limit of ten stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601012\">LONGi</a>Up more than 3%; Silicone concept was strong throughout the day,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603260\">Hopson Silicon</a>The daily limit reached a new high; Concepts such as HIT battery, lithium extraction from salt lake, infants and children, and online travel were active, and most textile and apparel stocks rose.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>The stock price hit another record high, rising nearly 3% as of the close, and the latest market value was 1,184.3 billion yuan, surpassing<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">Wuliangye</a>Become the \"first brother\" of Shenzhen.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93d3ce21ca8d59215a3c2e1be2a9f337\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>U.S. stocks</b></p><p>The three major stock index futures in the United States were mixed. As of press time, the Dow futures rose by 0.17%; Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.24%; S&P 500 futures fell 0.02%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83895d64ec668d72dcb5edf73dbeff5d\" tg-width=\"478\" tg-height=\"182\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Morgan Stanley rose more than 2% premarket, doubling its quarterly Dividend to 70 cents, and will buy back up to $12 billion of shares.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72c436e1b865ee4e1d224f056bfd31ee\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\"></p><p><b>European shares</b></p><p>Major European indexes rose across the board. As of press time, Germany's DAX index rose 0.57%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>The index rose 0.33%, the French CAC40 rose 0.35% and the European Stoxx 50 rose 0.37%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b257919c3a4379a1b3848f144a0a925\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>International oil prices fell slightly. As of press time, WTI crude oil was reported at $72.79/barrel, down 0.16%; Brent oil is now traded at $74.55/barrel, down 0.17%.</p><p>International oil prices have been weighed down by concerns about slowing growth in fuel demand as a new outbreak of the highly contagious Covid variant Delta has triggered new movement restrictions across the globe. However, U.S. shale oil producers still stick to the promise of suspending the expansion, which is different from the practice of previous waves of boom cycle, which is positive for the oil market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2317c0df6a343fd5277e3356ad5ee5b4\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"833\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4c741ddb202c84a0df34706caf5f957\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"833\"></p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>International gold fell slightly, falling 0.72% during the day to $1,767.8/oz.</p><p>The international gold price has continued to fluctuate sideways in a narrow range for more than a week, and investors' fears that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy sooner than expected have weakened the attractiveness of gold. Gold remains technically bearish, with the underlying support looking towards $1748. But the US Dollar Index has hovered below the 92 integer mark over the past week, limiting the gold's downside.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e5ed09a2cb81ab881444e6e45deed9d\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"833\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Market Overview: The throne of \"one brother\" in Shenzhen changed hands! Haidilao \"boils\" against the trend</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarket Overview: The throne of \"one brother\" in Shenzhen changed hands! Haidilao \"boils\" against the trend\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-29 16:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Hong Kong stock</b></p><p>The three major indices of Hong Kong stocks showed a unilateral decline throughout the day, and the overall market sentiment was flat. As of the close, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.94% to 28,994 points, the H-Share Index fell 0.98% to 10,757 points, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 0.91% to 8,201 points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7f0b8ac73315eee841216419d34c674\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On the disk, the oil sector was among the top losers, and all three barrels of oil plunged, dragging down the market; Recently, strong biomedical stocks and port shipping stocks have been corrected across the board, financial stocks (insurance, securities firms, banks) have performed sluggishly, and energy stocks such as home appliance stocks, aviation stocks, medical beauty stocks, gas stocks, defense stocks, gambling stocks and coal have generally fallen; Big tech stocks are mixed,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">Netease-S</a>Against the trend, it rose by 3.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">JD Group-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">Baidu Group-SW</a>Closed higher,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a>Both fell; Catering stocks rebounded sharply,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">Haidilao</a>A surge of nearly 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00520\">Xiabuxiabu</a>up 4.5%; Photovoltaic stocks are strong, property management stocks continue to rise,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00873\">Shimao Services</a>Many shares continued to hit new high prices. The turnover of the market was HK$146.1 billion, and the net inflow of southbound funds was HK$963 million against the trend.</p><p><b>A Shares</b></p><p>The three major indexes were corrected, and the Shanghai Composite Index was weakly consolidated above the 30th line, closing down 0.92% to 3,573 points throughout the day, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.99% to 14,999 points, and the GEM Index fell 0.19% to 3,406 points. More than 3,100 shares in the two cities fell, and the market sentiment and profit-making effect dropped significantly. After seven trading days, the turnover returned to below one trillion yuan again, reaching 997.4 billion yuan, and the northbound capital sold 3.14 billion yuan in the whole day.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55bf301fcd48fb59b0f70e721046a291\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The concept performance was sluggish, and concept stocks such as military industry, finance, liquor, chips and 5G generally fell; Most funds flow to the concept of photovoltaics,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300118\">Oriental Sunrise</a>Wait for the daily limit of ten stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601012\">LONGi</a>Up more than 3%; Silicone concept was strong throughout the day,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603260\">Hopson Silicon</a>The daily limit reached a new high; Concepts such as HIT battery, lithium extraction from salt lake, infants and children, and online travel were active, and most textile and apparel stocks rose.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>The stock price hit another record high, rising nearly 3% as of the close, and the latest market value was 1,184.3 billion yuan, surpassing<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">Wuliangye</a>Become the \"first brother\" of Shenzhen.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93d3ce21ca8d59215a3c2e1be2a9f337\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>U.S. stocks</b></p><p>The three major stock index futures in the United States were mixed. As of press time, the Dow futures rose by 0.17%; Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.24%; S&P 500 futures fell 0.02%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83895d64ec668d72dcb5edf73dbeff5d\" tg-width=\"478\" tg-height=\"182\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Morgan Stanley rose more than 2% premarket, doubling its quarterly Dividend to 70 cents, and will buy back up to $12 billion of shares.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72c436e1b865ee4e1d224f056bfd31ee\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\"></p><p><b>European shares</b></p><p>Major European indexes rose across the board. As of press time, Germany's DAX index rose 0.57%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>The index rose 0.33%, the French CAC40 rose 0.35% and the European Stoxx 50 rose 0.37%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b257919c3a4379a1b3848f144a0a925\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>International oil prices fell slightly. As of press time, WTI crude oil was reported at $72.79/barrel, down 0.16%; Brent oil is now traded at $74.55/barrel, down 0.17%.</p><p>International oil prices have been weighed down by concerns about slowing growth in fuel demand as a new outbreak of the highly contagious Covid variant Delta has triggered new movement restrictions across the globe. However, U.S. shale oil producers still stick to the promise of suspending the expansion, which is different from the practice of previous waves of boom cycle, which is positive for the oil market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2317c0df6a343fd5277e3356ad5ee5b4\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"833\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4c741ddb202c84a0df34706caf5f957\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"833\"></p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>International gold fell slightly, falling 0.72% during the day to $1,767.8/oz.</p><p>The international gold price has continued to fluctuate sideways in a narrow range for more than a week, and investors' fears that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy sooner than expected have weakened the attractiveness of gold. Gold remains technically bearish, with the underlying support looking towards $1748. But the US Dollar Index has hovered below the 92 integer mark over the past week, limiting the gold's downside.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e5ed09a2cb81ab881444e6e45deed9d\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"833\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d11890cd6ccd454a56d86737fd3353","relate_stocks":{"300750":"宁德时代","399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","HSI":"恒生指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","HSCCI":"红筹指数",".DJI":"道琼斯","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","06862":"海底捞",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","HSCEI":"国企指数","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118894802","content_text":"港股\n港股三大指数全日呈单边下跌行情，市场整体情绪表现平淡。截至收盘，恒指跌0.94%报28994点，国指跌0.98%报10757点，恒生科技指数跌0.91%报8201点。\n\n盘面上，石油板块跌幅居前，三桶油皆重挫拖累大市走低；近期强势的生物医药股、港口航运股全线回调，金融股(保险、券商、银行)表现低迷，家电股、航空股、医美股、燃气股、军工股、濠赌股、煤炭等能源股普遍下跌；大型科技股涨跌不一，网易-S逆势大涨3.6%，京东集团-SW、百度集团-SW收涨，腾讯、阿里巴巴-SW、美团-W均下跌；餐饮股大幅反弹，海底捞大涨近9%，呷哺呷哺涨4.5%；光伏股强势，物管股继续上扬，世茂服务等多股续创新高价。大市成交额为1461亿港元，南下资金逆势净流入9.63亿港元。\nA股\n三大指数回调，沪指在30日线上方弱势整理，全天收跌0.92%报3573点，深成指跌0.99%报14999点，创业板指跌0.19%报3406点。两市3100余股下跌，市场情绪及赚钱效应明显回落，成交额时隔七个交易日再次回至万亿下方，为9974亿，北上资金全天净卖出31.4亿。\n\n题材概念表现低迷，军工、金融、白酒、芯片、5G等概念股普遍下跌；资金多数流向光伏概念，东方日升等十股涨停，隆基股份涨逾3%；有机硅概念全天强势，合盛硅业涨停创新高；HIT电池、盐湖提锂、婴童、在线旅游等概念活跃，纺织服饰股多数上涨。\n宁德时代股价再创历史新高，截至收盘，涨近3%，最新市值11843亿元，超越五粮液成为深市“一哥”。\n\n美股\n美国三大股指期货涨跌不一，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.17%；纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.24%；标普500指数期货跌0.02%。\n\n摩根士丹利盘前涨超2%，摩根士丹利将季度股息翻倍至70美分，将回购最高120亿美元股票。\n\n欧股\n欧洲主要指数全线上涨，截止发稿，德国DAX指数涨0.57%，英国富时100指数涨0.33%，法国CAC40指数涨0.35%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.37%。\n\n原油\n国际油价小幅下跌，截止发稿，WTI原油报72.79美元/桶，跌0.16%；布油现报74.55美元/桶，跌0.17%。\n国际油价受到对燃料需求增长放缓的担忧拖累，因为高传染性新冠变种病毒Delta的新疫情在全球引发了新的行动限制。不过美国页岩油生产商仍坚守暂停扩大指出的承诺，有异于先前几波景气循环荣景时的做法，对油市构成利好。\n\n黄金\n国际黄金小幅走低，日内跌0.72%，报1767.8美元/盎司。\n国际金价延续逾一周的横盘窄幅震荡态势，投资者对美联储将比预期更早收紧货币政策的担忧削弱了黄金的吸引力。技术上看金价仍看跌，下方支撑看向1748美元。但美元指数过去一周徘徊在92整数关口下方，限制了黄金下行空间。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"300750":0.9,"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"06862":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159278180,"gmtCreate":1624972747340,"gmtModify":1703849120498,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9b8f75db4c14f22597f42cb3752e117","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584066196704033","idStr":"3584066196704033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159278180","repostId":"1191298260","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191298260","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624959770,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191298260?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-29 17:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Pre-market Change: Morgan Stanley Announces Big News of $12 Billion! Two concept stocks are restless","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191298260","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：美国三大股指期货涨跌不一，$摩根士丹利$涨超3%，宣布回购最多120亿美元股票；明星中概股涨跌不一，$高途$、$好未来$上涨， $阿里巴巴$、$百度$、雾芯科技等下挫。控股子公司科创板IPO申请获受理，$阿特斯太阳能$涨超4%。6月29日，美国三大股指期货涨跌不一，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.07%；标普500指数期货跌0.05%；纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.17%。Celcuity盘前跌超15%，宣布已开始包销公开发售其普通股股份。","content":"<p>Abstract: The three major stock index futures in the United States have mixed rises and losses,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It rose by more than 3% and announced the repurchase of up to $12 billion of shares; Star stocks have mixed ups and downs,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">Gaotu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>rising,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>, fog core technology, etc. fell. The IPO application of the holding subsidiary Science and Technology Innovation Board was accepted,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSIQ\">Canadian Solar</a>It rose by more than 4%. On June 29th, the three major stock index futures in the United States were mixed. As of press time, the Dow futures rose by 0.07%; S&P 500 futures fell 0.05%; Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.17%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89963164da4d40202eced4ada0e57c20\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The concept of blockchain rose before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">Canaan Technology</a>Marathon Patent rose by more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCTY\">9th City</a>Up more than 3%, Riot Blockchain rose more than 1%.</p><p>Some NFT concepts strengthened before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAOP\">Taoping</a>Nearly 5%, LiveXLive Media rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CIDM\">Cinedigm Digital Cinema</a>Up nearly 3%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Gaining more than 3% in the premarket, Morgan Stanley doubled its quarterly Dividend and announced a share buyback of up to $12 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOLI\">Hollysys Automation</a>It rose by more than 16% before the market, and a buyer group consisting of CPE Funds Management Limited, Shao Baiqing and Ace Lead Profits Limited<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOLI\">Hollysys Automation</a>Seek consent from the Company's shareholders for the proposed acquisition.</p><p>Cloud enterprise marketing Software Marin Software (MRIN.O) rose more than 34% premarket. It comes after the company said it had added the ability to manage Instacart ads to its flagship MarinOne platform.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIAC\">Viacom CBS</a>It rose by more than 1% before the market. In the American retail community,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIA\">Viacom</a>CBS has soared in popularity, and last week it was reported in the media that the company was suspected of buying.</p><p>Celcuity, down more than 15% premarket, announced it had commenced an underwritten public offering of its shares of common stock.</p><p>Star stocks have mixed ups and downs,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">Gaotu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>rose by more than 1%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Fog Core Technology fell by more than 1%.</p><p>$Artes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">Solar energy</a>(CSIQ) $ rose by more than 4% before the market, and the IPO application of the holding subsidiary Science and Technology Innovation Board was accepted, and it plans to raise 4 billion yuan.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-market Change: Morgan Stanley Announces Big News of $12 Billion! Two concept stocks are restless</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-market Change: Morgan Stanley Announces Big News of $12 Billion! Two concept stocks are restless\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-29 17:42</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Abstract: The three major stock index futures in the United States have mixed rises and losses,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It rose by more than 3% and announced the repurchase of up to $12 billion of shares; Star stocks have mixed ups and downs,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">Gaotu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>rising,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>, fog core technology, etc. fell. The IPO application of the holding subsidiary Science and Technology Innovation Board was accepted,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSIQ\">Canadian Solar</a>It rose by more than 4%. On June 29th, the three major stock index futures in the United States were mixed. As of press time, the Dow futures rose by 0.07%; S&P 500 futures fell 0.05%; Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.17%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89963164da4d40202eced4ada0e57c20\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The concept of blockchain rose before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">Canaan Technology</a>Marathon Patent rose by more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCTY\">9th City</a>Up more than 3%, Riot Blockchain rose more than 1%.</p><p>Some NFT concepts strengthened before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAOP\">Taoping</a>Nearly 5%, LiveXLive Media rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CIDM\">Cinedigm Digital Cinema</a>Up nearly 3%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Gaining more than 3% in the premarket, Morgan Stanley doubled its quarterly Dividend and announced a share buyback of up to $12 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOLI\">Hollysys Automation</a>It rose by more than 16% before the market, and a buyer group consisting of CPE Funds Management Limited, Shao Baiqing and Ace Lead Profits Limited<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOLI\">Hollysys Automation</a>Seek consent from the Company's shareholders for the proposed acquisition.</p><p>Cloud enterprise marketing Software Marin Software (MRIN.O) rose more than 34% premarket. It comes after the company said it had added the ability to manage Instacart ads to its flagship MarinOne platform.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIAC\">Viacom CBS</a>It rose by more than 1% before the market. In the American retail community,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIA\">Viacom</a>CBS has soared in popularity, and last week it was reported in the media that the company was suspected of buying.</p><p>Celcuity, down more than 15% premarket, announced it had commenced an underwritten public offering of its shares of common stock.</p><p>Star stocks have mixed ups and downs,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">Gaotu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>rose by more than 1%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Fog Core Technology fell by more than 1%.</p><p>$Artes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">Solar energy</a>(CSIQ) $ rose by more than 4% before the market, and the IPO application of the holding subsidiary Science and Technology Innovation Board was accepted, and it plans to raise 4 billion yuan.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/082208e3c37780dd55878056410ffa43","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","GOTU":"高途","MS":"摩根士丹利"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191298260","content_text":"摘要：美国三大股指期货涨跌不一，摩根士丹利涨超3%，宣布回购最多120亿美元股票；明星中概股涨跌不一，高途、好未来上涨， 阿里巴巴、百度、雾芯科技等下挫。控股子公司科创板IPO申请获受理，阿特斯太阳能涨超4%。\n\n6月29日，美国三大股指期货涨跌不一，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.07%；标普500指数期货跌0.05%；纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.17%。区块链概念盘前走高，嘉楠科技、Marathon Patent涨超2%，第九城市涨超3%，Riot Blockchain涨超1%。\n部分NFT概念盘前走强，淘屏涨近5%，LiveXLive Media涨超3%，Cinedigm数码影院涨近3%。\n摩根士丹利盘前涨超3%，摩根士丹利将季度股息增加一倍，并宣布回购最高达120亿美元的股票。\n和利时自动化盘前涨超16%，由CPE Funds Management Limited、邵柏庆及Ace Lead Profits Limited组成的买方团就其对和利时自动化的拟议收购，向公司股东征求同意。\n云企业营销软件Marin Software(MRIN.O)盘前涨超34%。此前该公司表示，已将管理Instacart广告的能力添加到其旗舰MarinOne平台。\n维亚康姆CBS盘前涨超1%，在美国散户社区中，维亚康姆CBS热度飙升，上周据媒体报道该公司疑似要收购的消息。\nCelcuity盘前跌超15%，宣布已开始包销公开发售其普通股股份。\n明星中概股涨跌不一，高途、好未来涨超1%， 阿里巴巴、百度、雾芯科技跌超1%。\n$阿特斯太阳能(CSIQ)$盘前涨超4%，控股子公司科创板IPO申请获受理，拟募资40亿元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VIAC":0.9,"MS":0.9,"BABA":0.9,"GOTU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1175,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159271737,"gmtCreate":1624972736329,"gmtModify":1703849120333,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9b8f75db4c14f22597f42cb3752e117","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584066196704033","idStr":"3584066196704033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159271737","repostId":"1164662782","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164662782","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624967212,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164662782?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-29 19:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"At $23.5/ADS, Dingdong Maicai sets IPO price at the bottom of guidance range","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164662782","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"叮咚买菜据悉将美股IPO价格定在指导区间的底部23.5美元/ADS。\n相关阅读\n即将上市的叮咚买菜再次更新招股书，其筹资规模大幅缩减至此前额度的四分之一。最新的招股书显示，叮咚买菜首次公开发行370万","content":"<p>Ding dong shopping is reported to set the IPO price of U.S. stocks at the bottom of the guidance range of $23.5/ADS.</p><p><b>Related Reading</b></p><p>Dingdong Maicai, which is about to go public, has updated its prospectus again, and its fundraising scale has been greatly reduced to one-quarter of the previous quota. The latest prospectus shows that Dingdong Maicai made an initial public offering of 3.7 million American depositary shares (ADS) at the same price range as before, maintaining between $23.5 and $25.5. According to the upper limit of the issue price range, the amount of funds raised by Ding Dong shopping for groceries is about USD 94 million.</p><p>A week ago, Dingdong Maicai's first updated prospectus showed that it would publicly issue 14 million American depositary shares. At that time, it could raise nearly $360 million according to the upper limit of the offering price range. In contrast, the last announced fundraising scale was reduced to a quarter of the previous quota, that is, the overall reduction was over 70%.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>At $23.5/ADS, Dingdong Maicai sets IPO price at the bottom of guidance range</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAt $23.5/ADS, Dingdong Maicai sets IPO price at the bottom of guidance range\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-29 19:46</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Ding dong shopping is reported to set the IPO price of U.S. stocks at the bottom of the guidance range of $23.5/ADS.</p><p><b>Related Reading</b></p><p>Dingdong Maicai, which is about to go public, has updated its prospectus again, and its fundraising scale has been greatly reduced to one-quarter of the previous quota. The latest prospectus shows that Dingdong Maicai made an initial public offering of 3.7 million American depositary shares (ADS) at the same price range as before, maintaining between $23.5 and $25.5. According to the upper limit of the issue price range, the amount of funds raised by Ding Dong shopping for groceries is about USD 94 million.</p><p>A week ago, Dingdong Maicai's first updated prospectus showed that it would publicly issue 14 million American depositary shares. At that time, it could raise nearly $360 million according to the upper limit of the offering price range. In contrast, the last announced fundraising scale was reduced to a quarter of the previous quota, that is, the overall reduction was over 70%.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b69e234a63c2c0a69ccede7b0faaa18","relate_stocks":{"DDL":"叮咚买菜"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164662782","content_text":"叮咚买菜据悉将美股IPO价格定在指导区间的底部23.5美元/ADS。\n相关阅读\n即将上市的叮咚买菜再次更新招股书，其筹资规模大幅缩减至此前额度的四分之一。最新的招股书显示，叮咚买菜首次公开发行370万股美国存托股票(ADS)，发行价格区间与此前相同，维持在23.5美元至25.5美元之间。按照发行价区间上限计算，叮咚买菜筹资金额大约在9400万美元左右。\n一周前，叮咚买菜首次更新的招股书显示其将公开发行1400万股美国存托股票，彼时按照发行价区间上限计算可筹资达到近3.6亿美元。对比之下，最近一次宣布的募资规模缩减至此前额度的四分之一，即总体缩减幅度超70%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DDL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":984,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127646420,"gmtCreate":1624848022560,"gmtModify":1703846107707,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9b8f75db4c14f22597f42cb3752e117","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584066196704033","idStr":"3584066196704033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127646420","repostId":"1108579788","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108579788","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624842781,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1108579788?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-28 09:13","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"HKEx will cancel morning session trading due to black rainstorm warning signal","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108579788","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月28日讯，港交所因黑色暴雨警告信号将取消上午时段交易。\n此前，港交所公告称若早上9点仍不能取消天文台发出的黑色暴雨警告，将取消盘前交易。\n香港交易所：由于天文台发出黑色暴雨警告，证券（包括沪深股通","content":"<p>On June 28th, HKEx will cancel morning trading due to black rainstorm warning signal.</p><p>Earlier, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange announced that if the black rainstorm warning issued by the Observatory could not be cancelled at 9 a.m., the pre-market trading would be cancelled.</p><p>HKEX: Due to the black rainstorm warning issued by the Observatory, the morning trading hours of the securities (including the Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Connect) and derivatives markets will be delayed. If the 9 a.m. black rainstorm warning signal remains in place, morning trading will be cancelled.</p><p>Shanghai Stock Exchange: Hong Kong Stock Exchange suspended trading due to black rainstorm. Trading in Hong Kong Stock Connect was suspended under Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect.</p><p>Shenzhen Stock Exchange: On June 28th, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange suspended trading due to black rainstorm. According to the Measures for the Implementation of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect Business of Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the trading of Hong Kong Stock Connect under Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect was suspended.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3990c0a20608d23583a9a9f2cfa0ace3\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The black rainstorm in Hong Kong hit, and Hong Kong stocks closed in the morning. How much do you know about the trading arrangements?</b></p><p>On June 28th, the Hong Kong Observatory issued a special report on the black rainstorm warning signal at 8: 20 am: The rainstorm warning signal is now black, indicating that heavy rains with an hourly rainfall of more than 70mm have been recorded or expected in extensive areas of Hong Kong, and the rain may continue.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c65808ce9685f3cd97d48ee260a04e71\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As of 9 a.m., the black rainstorm warning has not been lifted, and the opening of Hong Kong stocks in early trading will be delayed. If it is lifted after 9 am, the morning trading of Hong Kong stocks will be cancelled. If lifted between 11 and 11:30, trading begins at 1:30 p.m.; If lifted between 11:30 and 12, trading begins at 2pm; It will be lifted after 12 noon and will be closed all day.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa2358a6b83c103be2c4404bddf61e1a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Due to the frequent occurrence of typhoons and other weather, the Hong Kong market has repeatedly delayed trading due to weather factors. Therefore, the response measures of HKEx are relatively complete.</p><p>On August 19, 2020, the Hong Kong stock market was closed in early trading, and the Hong Kong Observatory changed the No.3 strong wind signal at 11: 10 a.m. on the 19th. The HKEx subsequently announced that the afternoon trading session would start at 13:30.</p><p>On August 23, 2017, HKEx announced in the morning that the morning trading hours of securities markets (including Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Connect) and derivatives markets would be delayed due to the typhoon signal No.8 issued by the Observatory.</p><p>On October 21, 2016, the HKEx said that the morning trading hours of the securities market (including Shanghai Stock Connect) and the derivatives market would be delayed because the Observatory has now issued Typhoon 8 signal.</p><p>On August 2, 2016, the HKEx announced that the No.8 typhoon signal warning was still in effect, and the morning trading hours of the securities market (including Shanghai Stock Connect) and derivatives market would be delayed.</p><p>On September 16, 2014, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange announced that the opening of the securities and derivatives markets would be delayed in the morning trading hours, after the Hong Kong Observatory had issued the No. 8 storm signal for Typhoon Kalmaegi.</p><p>In 2013, similar actions were taken several times because of typhoons and heavy rains.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>HKEx will cancel morning session trading due to black rainstorm warning signal</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHKEx will cancel morning session trading due to black rainstorm warning signal\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-28 09:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 28th, HKEx will cancel morning trading due to black rainstorm warning signal.</p><p>Earlier, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange announced that if the black rainstorm warning issued by the Observatory could not be cancelled at 9 a.m., the pre-market trading would be cancelled.</p><p>HKEX: Due to the black rainstorm warning issued by the Observatory, the morning trading hours of the securities (including the Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Connect) and derivatives markets will be delayed. If the 9 a.m. black rainstorm warning signal remains in place, morning trading will be cancelled.</p><p>Shanghai Stock Exchange: Hong Kong Stock Exchange suspended trading due to black rainstorm. Trading in Hong Kong Stock Connect was suspended under Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect.</p><p>Shenzhen Stock Exchange: On June 28th, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange suspended trading due to black rainstorm. According to the Measures for the Implementation of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect Business of Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the trading of Hong Kong Stock Connect under Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect was suspended.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3990c0a20608d23583a9a9f2cfa0ace3\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The black rainstorm in Hong Kong hit, and Hong Kong stocks closed in the morning. How much do you know about the trading arrangements?</b></p><p>On June 28th, the Hong Kong Observatory issued a special report on the black rainstorm warning signal at 8: 20 am: The rainstorm warning signal is now black, indicating that heavy rains with an hourly rainfall of more than 70mm have been recorded or expected in extensive areas of Hong Kong, and the rain may continue.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c65808ce9685f3cd97d48ee260a04e71\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As of 9 a.m., the black rainstorm warning has not been lifted, and the opening of Hong Kong stocks in early trading will be delayed. If it is lifted after 9 am, the morning trading of Hong Kong stocks will be cancelled. If lifted between 11 and 11:30, trading begins at 1:30 p.m.; If lifted between 11:30 and 12, trading begins at 2pm; It will be lifted after 12 noon and will be closed all day.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa2358a6b83c103be2c4404bddf61e1a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Due to the frequent occurrence of typhoons and other weather, the Hong Kong market has repeatedly delayed trading due to weather factors. Therefore, the response measures of HKEx are relatively complete.</p><p>On August 19, 2020, the Hong Kong stock market was closed in early trading, and the Hong Kong Observatory changed the No.3 strong wind signal at 11: 10 a.m. on the 19th. The HKEx subsequently announced that the afternoon trading session would start at 13:30.</p><p>On August 23, 2017, HKEx announced in the morning that the morning trading hours of securities markets (including Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Connect) and derivatives markets would be delayed due to the typhoon signal No.8 issued by the Observatory.</p><p>On October 21, 2016, the HKEx said that the morning trading hours of the securities market (including Shanghai Stock Connect) and the derivatives market would be delayed because the Observatory has now issued Typhoon 8 signal.</p><p>On August 2, 2016, the HKEx announced that the No.8 typhoon signal warning was still in effect, and the morning trading hours of the securities market (including Shanghai Stock Connect) and derivatives market would be delayed.</p><p>On September 16, 2014, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange announced that the opening of the securities and derivatives markets would be delayed in the morning trading hours, after the Hong Kong Observatory had issued the No. 8 storm signal for Typhoon Kalmaegi.</p><p>In 2013, similar actions were taken several times because of typhoons and heavy rains.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26e574706ced777ba0af741c0072c424","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108579788","content_text":"6月28日讯，港交所因黑色暴雨警告信号将取消上午时段交易。\n此前，港交所公告称若早上9点仍不能取消天文台发出的黑色暴雨警告，将取消盘前交易。\n香港交易所：由于天文台发出黑色暴雨警告，证券（包括沪深股通）及衍生产品市场之早上交易时段均会延迟开市。如果上午9点黑色暴雨警告信号仍维持，上午交易将取消。\n上交所：香港联合证券交易所因黑色暴雨暂停交易。沪港通下港股通暂停交易。\n深交所：6月28日，香港联合证券交易所因黑色暴雨暂停交易。根据《深圳证券交易所深港通业务实施办法》，深港通下的港股通暂停交易。香港黑色暴雨来袭，港股上午休市，交易安排知多少？\n6月28日消息，香港天文台在上午8时20分发出之有关黑色暴雨警告信号的特别报告：暴雨警告信号现时为黑色，表示香港广泛地区已录得或预料会有每小时雨量超过70毫米的豪雨，且雨势可能持续。截至上午9点，黑色暴雨警告尚未解除，港股早盘交易将延迟开市。如果上午9点以后解除，港股早盘交易将取消。如果11点至11点30分解除，下午1点30开始交易；如果11点30分到12点解除，下午2点开始交易；中午12点后解除，全天休市。由于台风等天气出现频繁，香港市场已多次因天气因素影响而延迟交易，因此，港交所应对措施也较为完善。\n2020年8月19日，香港股市早盘休市，香港天文台19日上午11时10分改发三号强风信号。港交所随后宣布，下午交易时段将于13：30时开始。\n2017年8月23日，港交所于早间宣布，由于天文台现已发出八号台风信号，证券市场 (包括沪深股通) 及衍生产品市场的上午交易时段会延迟开市。\n2016年10月21日，港交所表示，由于天文台现已发出八号台风信号，证券市场 (包括沪股通) 及衍生产品市场之上午交易时段会延迟开市。\n2016年8月2日，港交所公告显示，八号风球预警仍然有效，证券市场 (包括沪股通) 及衍生产品市场之上午交易时段会延迟开市。\n2014年9月16日，港交所宣布，证券及衍生品市场早上交易时段均会延迟开市，此前香港天文台已针对台风“海鸥”发出八号暴风风球信号。\n2013年，也有数次因为台风和暴雨采取类似的行动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125630864,"gmtCreate":1624670747158,"gmtModify":1703843199750,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9b8f75db4c14f22597f42cb3752e117","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584066196704033","idStr":"3584066196704033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/125630864","repostId":"1186578125","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186578125","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624879503,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1186578125?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-28 19:25","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Dalio's latest speech: Stocks aren't necessarily in a bubble right now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186578125","media":"人民币交易与研究","summary":"全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人达里奥6月24日连发两篇推文，介绍自己衡量泡沫的六项指标，并发布了一个10分钟的视频阐述自己对当下股市泡沫的看法。\n在这个应罗宾汉基金会要求解释股票泡沫的视频中，达里奥表示，","content":"<p>Dario, founder of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, sent two tweets on June 24th, introducing his six indicators to measure bubbles, and released a 10-minute video to explain his views on the current stock market bubble.</p><p>In this video explaining the equity bubble at the request of the Robin Hood Foundation, Dalio said that while indicators show that some stocks are \"bubbling\" right now, the stock market is not necessarily in a bubble right now.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed46d81d71867f2d1eb8b3b9ad012779\" tg-width=\"532\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>\"By bubble, I mean unsustainably high prices, and I measure it with six metrics,\" Dalio wrote in a tweet, noting that investors need to watch for signs such as buyer leverage levels and the number of new buyers.</p><p>In fact, as early as mid-May, Dario shared his research on stock market bubbles in WeChat official account, detailing these six systematic \"bubble indicators\", including price, bullish sentiment, leverage, etc.:</p><p>1. How high is the price relative to traditional measurement standards?</p><p>2. Do prices reflect unsustainable conditions?</p><p>3. How many new buyers (i.e. people who were not in the market before) have entered the market?</p><p>4. How common is bullish sentiment?</p><p>5. Does trading rely on the support of high leverage?</p><p>6. Do buyers excessively engage in forward transactions (such as building inventory, entering into forward agreements, etc.) to speculate or protect themselves from future price increases?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b89447f632ae50e578dd9ebcd007795e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Here is the full text of this video speech, titled \"Is the stock market in a bubble right now?\":</p><p>Hello everyone, it's a pleasure to be here on behalf of all those who have been helped by Robin Hood (Foundation).</p><p>You know, knowing Robin Hood, because I knew Paul Tudor Jones, when Robin Hood was a glimmer in his eye, he would play basketball with the kids in the Bedford-Stuy neighborhood (Bed Stuy), and I was fortunate to be able to see him and all the staff at the Robin Hood Fund, in a very personal and efficient way to help alleviate poverty in America, and to be a part of it. Everything you guys have done is wonderful, so I just want to thank you for what you have done, and to tell you how happy I am to be here and do my small part.</p><p>I was asked to talk about bubbles, whether the market, the stock market is in a bubble, and what kind of bubble. I just wanted to give you some thoughts on the subject, I only have about 10 minutes. So I want to talk quickly, a few years ago, I started thinking: What is a bubble? When we are in a bubble, what do I mean by bubble? Because in my 50 years of investing, I've seen a lot of bubbles.</p><p>There are six things in my mind that I basically think will lead to bubbles, and I'll list them all. Now, look at them so that you know what I'm talking about.</p><p>First of all, you know, how high our prices are relative to traditional price measures is a consideration. For example, you know our PSI or yield and stuff like that, that's a consideration, but that's not what I call a bubble.</p><p>For example, there may be high prices and low returns, and this can be the case for a long time, but that doesn't mean that the bubble will burst, it's just one component.</p><p>Second, price is a reflection of unsustainable conditions, here referring to the nature of the buyer, who is buying and how to buy, unsustainable conditions will produce a price correction or decline, and then there is a third speculative factor-new buyers in the market are attracted.</p><p>You know, it's like a cocktail party where some people who never attend show up, which is invested in certain assets, it could be tech stocks, it could be real estate, but anyway, everybody thinks, not holding that stuff makes them feel stupid, and all that stuff.</p><p>The fifth item is to buy forward \"contracts\" for large sums, such as someone buying an apartment they don't know about because they think it will go up, or using the age of large-scale commodity trading as an example. I would look at people who use commodities and they buy a lot of forward contracts. In other words, buy inventory to protect yourself from rising prices.</p><p>So when they leave the market – as we've seen recently in commodity markets – when they dump forward contracts and the price keeps falling, they'll say \"I don't want it either\".</p><p>And when the price goes up, they will say that we want premium protection to hedge against the price increase. So, the buyers who extend these forward purchases are a (bubble) indicator.</p><p>I use this table to show the entire stock market, and I apply this framework to basically all assets, and I use a systematic approach to try to determine which ones are in a bubble. In my opinion, among the wide variety of stocks, some have bubbles and some don't, and the entire stock market is just as this chart shows.</p><p>This chart dates back to 1910, and it is an indicator of the extent of the bubble. You can see that there is a bubble at present, but it is not as high as in 2000 and 1929, but higher than in 2007.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4f2ff86c22e19d1a051e96d120c0fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Let's look at stocks that have bubbles, and by those criteria, a lot of them don't have bubbles.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ebf9f9bfdd5c982106b5c4f97acf635\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This chart goes back to 1995. Compared to 2000, the share of the top 1,000 companies with bubbles in market capitalization is about 5%, and the share of the entire S&P 500 index with bubbles is about 2%, which is not as high as in 2000, but higher than in 2007.</p><p>Now on to the next chart showing bubble stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15720e9f5f0240be2ddeda3d14230eaa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>I separate these bubble stocks from the S&P 500 and can see a decline in the proportion of bubble stocks in the broader market, which I believe is likely to continue, but is currently in a bubble. One of the problems is that bubbles can expand and contract, and timing is a big question.</p><p>The following chart dates back to 1900. The upper chart shows the ratio of debt to gross domestic product (GDP). The blue line in the lower chart shows interest rates, and the red line shows the size of money printed, that is, the amount of money flowing in. So you can see when debt accumulates, as is the case now, and near-zero interest rates are implemented, when both scenarios exist at the same time, there is a big printing of money.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5d3d3c839ca42009c377a3eed7c9c3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>That's a key element of the bubble because there's a lot of liquidity coming into the market and then there's a lot of money gouging up all kinds of asset prices, so you can see that when the blue line hits zero, the red line goes up significantly. A lot of liquidity, a lot of debt financing and debt monetization created a typical bubble.</p><p>Other factors that can create a bubble are new stock listings, especially if they are not profitable or, in many cases, have no prospect of making a profit.</p><p>These are also bubble considerations, so I would say that you can't say that the current stock market is at the highest degree of bubble, you have to distinguish which stocks are in a bubble, or have been in a bubble; Which stocks aren't, there are actually many stocks currently that aren't in a bubble.</p><p>So I hope this gives you some insight into the bubbles, how I see them and where we are at the moment. Thanks.</p>","source":"lsy1574157197600","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dalio's latest speech: Stocks aren't necessarily in a bubble right now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDalio's latest speech: Stocks aren't necessarily in a bubble right now\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">人民币交易与研究</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 19:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Dario, founder of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, sent two tweets on June 24th, introducing his six indicators to measure bubbles, and released a 10-minute video to explain his views on the current stock market bubble.</p><p>In this video explaining the equity bubble at the request of the Robin Hood Foundation, Dalio said that while indicators show that some stocks are \"bubbling\" right now, the stock market is not necessarily in a bubble right now.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed46d81d71867f2d1eb8b3b9ad012779\" tg-width=\"532\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>\"By bubble, I mean unsustainably high prices, and I measure it with six metrics,\" Dalio wrote in a tweet, noting that investors need to watch for signs such as buyer leverage levels and the number of new buyers.</p><p>In fact, as early as mid-May, Dario shared his research on stock market bubbles in WeChat official account, detailing these six systematic \"bubble indicators\", including price, bullish sentiment, leverage, etc.:</p><p>1. How high is the price relative to traditional measurement standards?</p><p>2. Do prices reflect unsustainable conditions?</p><p>3. How many new buyers (i.e. people who were not in the market before) have entered the market?</p><p>4. How common is bullish sentiment?</p><p>5. Does trading rely on the support of high leverage?</p><p>6. Do buyers excessively engage in forward transactions (such as building inventory, entering into forward agreements, etc.) to speculate or protect themselves from future price increases?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b89447f632ae50e578dd9ebcd007795e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Here is the full text of this video speech, titled \"Is the stock market in a bubble right now?\":</p><p>Hello everyone, it's a pleasure to be here on behalf of all those who have been helped by Robin Hood (Foundation).</p><p>You know, knowing Robin Hood, because I knew Paul Tudor Jones, when Robin Hood was a glimmer in his eye, he would play basketball with the kids in the Bedford-Stuy neighborhood (Bed Stuy), and I was fortunate to be able to see him and all the staff at the Robin Hood Fund, in a very personal and efficient way to help alleviate poverty in America, and to be a part of it. Everything you guys have done is wonderful, so I just want to thank you for what you have done, and to tell you how happy I am to be here and do my small part.</p><p>I was asked to talk about bubbles, whether the market, the stock market is in a bubble, and what kind of bubble. I just wanted to give you some thoughts on the subject, I only have about 10 minutes. So I want to talk quickly, a few years ago, I started thinking: What is a bubble? When we are in a bubble, what do I mean by bubble? Because in my 50 years of investing, I've seen a lot of bubbles.</p><p>There are six things in my mind that I basically think will lead to bubbles, and I'll list them all. Now, look at them so that you know what I'm talking about.</p><p>First of all, you know, how high our prices are relative to traditional price measures is a consideration. For example, you know our PSI or yield and stuff like that, that's a consideration, but that's not what I call a bubble.</p><p>For example, there may be high prices and low returns, and this can be the case for a long time, but that doesn't mean that the bubble will burst, it's just one component.</p><p>Second, price is a reflection of unsustainable conditions, here referring to the nature of the buyer, who is buying and how to buy, unsustainable conditions will produce a price correction or decline, and then there is a third speculative factor-new buyers in the market are attracted.</p><p>You know, it's like a cocktail party where some people who never attend show up, which is invested in certain assets, it could be tech stocks, it could be real estate, but anyway, everybody thinks, not holding that stuff makes them feel stupid, and all that stuff.</p><p>The fifth item is to buy forward \"contracts\" for large sums, such as someone buying an apartment they don't know about because they think it will go up, or using the age of large-scale commodity trading as an example. I would look at people who use commodities and they buy a lot of forward contracts. In other words, buy inventory to protect yourself from rising prices.</p><p>So when they leave the market – as we've seen recently in commodity markets – when they dump forward contracts and the price keeps falling, they'll say \"I don't want it either\".</p><p>And when the price goes up, they will say that we want premium protection to hedge against the price increase. So, the buyers who extend these forward purchases are a (bubble) indicator.</p><p>I use this table to show the entire stock market, and I apply this framework to basically all assets, and I use a systematic approach to try to determine which ones are in a bubble. In my opinion, among the wide variety of stocks, some have bubbles and some don't, and the entire stock market is just as this chart shows.</p><p>This chart dates back to 1910, and it is an indicator of the extent of the bubble. You can see that there is a bubble at present, but it is not as high as in 2000 and 1929, but higher than in 2007.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4f2ff86c22e19d1a051e96d120c0fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Let's look at stocks that have bubbles, and by those criteria, a lot of them don't have bubbles.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ebf9f9bfdd5c982106b5c4f97acf635\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This chart goes back to 1995. Compared to 2000, the share of the top 1,000 companies with bubbles in market capitalization is about 5%, and the share of the entire S&P 500 index with bubbles is about 2%, which is not as high as in 2000, but higher than in 2007.</p><p>Now on to the next chart showing bubble stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15720e9f5f0240be2ddeda3d14230eaa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>I separate these bubble stocks from the S&P 500 and can see a decline in the proportion of bubble stocks in the broader market, which I believe is likely to continue, but is currently in a bubble. One of the problems is that bubbles can expand and contract, and timing is a big question.</p><p>The following chart dates back to 1900. The upper chart shows the ratio of debt to gross domestic product (GDP). The blue line in the lower chart shows interest rates, and the red line shows the size of money printed, that is, the amount of money flowing in. So you can see when debt accumulates, as is the case now, and near-zero interest rates are implemented, when both scenarios exist at the same time, there is a big printing of money.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5d3d3c839ca42009c377a3eed7c9c3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>That's a key element of the bubble because there's a lot of liquidity coming into the market and then there's a lot of money gouging up all kinds of asset prices, so you can see that when the blue line hits zero, the red line goes up significantly. A lot of liquidity, a lot of debt financing and debt monetization created a typical bubble.</p><p>Other factors that can create a bubble are new stock listings, especially if they are not profitable or, in many cases, have no prospect of making a profit.</p><p>These are also bubble considerations, so I would say that you can't say that the current stock market is at the highest degree of bubble, you have to distinguish which stocks are in a bubble, or have been in a bubble; Which stocks aren't, there are actually many stocks currently that aren't in a bubble.</p><p>So I hope this gives you some insight into the bubbles, how I see them and where we are at the moment. Thanks.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lv14Xv-iB491-ddK3pdX_w\">人民币交易与研究</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61ac6f61084482a9c0c70291c78e92f5","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lv14Xv-iB491-ddK3pdX_w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186578125","content_text":"全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人达里奥6月24日连发两篇推文，介绍自己衡量泡沫的六项指标，并发布了一个10分钟的视频阐述自己对当下股市泡沫的看法。\n在这个应罗宾汉基金会要求解释股票泡沫的视频中，达里奥表示，虽然指标显示一些股票目前“存在泡沫”，但股市眼下不一定处于泡沫中。\n\n达里奥在推文中写道，“我所说的泡沫是指不可持续的高价，我用六项指标来衡量它”，并指出投资者需关注买家杠杆水平和新买家数量等迹象。\n事实上，早在5月中旬时，达里奥就曾在公众号分享了他对股市泡沫的研究，详述了这六种系统性“泡沫指标”，包括价格、看涨情绪、杠杆高低等：\n1． 相对传统的衡量标准，价格有多高？\n2． 价格是否反映了不可持续的状况？\n3． 有多少新买家（即之前不在市场里的人）进入了市场？\n4． 看涨情绪有多普遍？\n5． 交易是否依赖高杠杆的支撑？\n6． 买家是否过度进行远期交易（如建立库存、签订远期协议等）来投机或保护自己免受未来价格上涨的影响？\n\n以下是这个名为《股市目前是否处于泡沫中？》的视频演讲全文：\n大家好，很高兴能代表所有被罗宾汉（基金会）帮助过的人来到这里。\n你们知道，知道罗宾汉，是因为我认识保罗·都铎·琼斯，当时罗宾汉是他眼里的一抹微光，他会在贝德福德-斯图文森特街区（Bed Stuy）和孩子们一起打篮球，我很幸运能够看到他和罗宾汉基金的所有工作人员，以一种非常个人化和高效的方式来帮助减轻美国的贫困，并且能够成为其中的一员。你们所做的一切都很棒，所以我只想感谢你们所做的一切，并且告诉你们能够来到这里并尽我的微薄之力，我有多么高兴。\n我被要求谈论泡沫，市场、股市是否处于泡沫中，以及什么样的泡沫。我只想给你们一些关于这个问题的想法，我只有大约10分钟的时间。所以我想讲快点，几年前，我开始思考：什么是泡沫？当我们身处泡沫中时，我所说的泡沫是指什么？因为在我50年的投资生涯中，我看到了很多泡沫。\n在我脑海中，有六件事是我基本上认为会导致产生泡沫的，我将他们一一列举出来。现在，看着它们，以便您知道我在说什么。\n首先，您知道，我们的价格相对于传统的价格衡量标准有多高是一个考虑因素。例如，你知道我们的PSI或收益率之类的东西，这是一个考虑因素，但这不是我所说的泡沫。\n比方说，可能出现价格高回报低的现象，而且这种情况可以持续很长时间，但这并不意味着泡沫会破灭，只是其中一个组成因素。\n第二，价格是反映不可持续的条件，这里指的是买方的性质，谁在买入和如何买入，不可持续的条件会产生了价格调整或下跌，然后就出现了第三个投机因素——市场上的新买家被吸引了。\n您知道，这就像鸡尾酒会，有些从不参加的人出现了，也就是投资了某些资产，可能是科技股，也可能是房地产，但无论如何，每个人都想，没有持有这些东西会让他们觉得自己很蠢，诸如此类。\n第五项是大额购买远期“合约”，比如有人买了他们不了解的公寓，因为他们认为公寓会上涨，或者用大规模交易大宗商品的年代来举例。我会观察那些使用大宗商品的人，他们购买了大量远期合约。换句话说，购买库存以保护自己免受价格上涨的影响。\n所以当他们离场的时候——正如我们最近在大宗商品市场看到的——当他们抛售远期合约时，价格持续下跌，他们会说“我也不想要它”。\n而当价格上涨时，他们会说我们要进行溢价保护，对冲价格上涨。所以，延长了这些远期购买的买家是一个（泡沫）指标。\n我用这张表显示整个股市，我把这个框架基本上应用到所有资产上，并且使用一种系统化的方法，试图判断哪些处在泡沫中。在我看来，在各种各样的股票中，有些存在泡沫，有些则没有，而整个股市正如这张图表所显示的。\n这张图表可以追溯到1910年，它是一个彰显泡沫程度的指标。你可以看到当前是有泡沫的，但没有2000年和1929年那么高，不过高于2007年。\n\n让我们看看存在泡沫的股票，根据这些标准，很多股票没有泡沫。\n\n这张图表追溯到1995年，与2000年相比，前1000名的企业市值存在泡沫比例约为5%，整个标普500指数存在泡沫的份额约为2%，虽然不如2000年高，但比2007年高。\n现在来看下一张显示了泡沫股票的图表。\n\n我把这些泡沫股票与标准普尔500指数分离，可以看到泡沫股在大盘中的比例下降，我相信这种情况很可能会持续下去，但目前处于泡沫之中。其中一个问题是，泡沫可以扩张和收缩，时机是个大问题。\n下面这张图表可以追溯到1900年，上图显示的是债务与国内生产总值（GDP）之比，下图中蓝线显示的是利率，红线显示印钞规模，也就是流入的货币量。所以你可以看到当债务累加时，就像现在的情况，并且实施近零利率，这两种情况同时存在时就会大肆印钞。\n\n这是泡沫的一个关键因素，因为有大量的流动性进入市场，然后有很多资金哄抬各种各样的资产价格，所以你可以看到，当蓝线触及零时，红线大幅上行。大量流动性，大量的债务融资和债务货币化形成了一个典型的泡沫。\n其他可能产生泡沫的因素则是新股上市，特别是如果它们没有盈利，或者是在许多情况下没有盈利的前景。\n这些也是泡沫的考虑因素，所以我想说，你不能说当前的股市处于最高程度的泡沫，你必须区分哪些股票正处于泡沫中、或者一直处于泡沫中；哪些股票没有，实际上目前有许多股票并没有处于泡沫中。\n所以我希望这能让你对泡沫有所了解、我如何看待它们以及我们目前处于什么位置。谢谢。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":143135079,"gmtCreate":1625779024791,"gmtModify":1703748252548,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9b8f75db4c14f22597f42cb3752e117","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584066196704033","authorIdStr":"3584066196704033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/143135079","repostId":"1165245102","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3741,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128013468,"gmtCreate":1624495113654,"gmtModify":1703838243242,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9b8f75db4c14f22597f42cb3752e117","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584066196704033","authorIdStr":"3584066196704033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/128013468","repostId":"1177791519","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":668,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153997113,"gmtCreate":1625002161232,"gmtModify":1703849722632,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9b8f75db4c14f22597f42cb3752e117","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584066196704033","authorIdStr":"3584066196704033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153997113","repostId":"1162626672","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162626672","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624950782,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162626672?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-29 15:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Buffett's 8 valuable lessons and lessons from the pandemic","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162626672","media":"智通财经 ","summary":"许多人成功的方法之一是把每一次危机都当作一个机会来对待。尽管巴菲特向慈善机构捐赠了数十亿美元，但他的净资产在今年3月突破了1000亿美元大关。巴菲特不仅变得更富有，还为其他投资者带来了一些宝贵的经验教","content":"<p><b>One of the ways many people succeed is to treat every crisis as an opportunity.</b>Although Buffett has donated billions to charity, his net worth crossed the $100 billion mark in March of this year. Not only has Buffett gotten richer, but he has brought some valuable lessons for other investors.</p><p>01 New investment? Utilizing the S&P 500</p><p>At Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting last month, Buffett talked about one of his favorite investments — one that emerged as a winner during the pandemic.</p><p>\"I recommend the S&P 500 index fund and have been recommending it to people for a long time,\" Buffett said, adding that 90 percent of the money he leaves to his wife will go to the S&P 500 after his death.</p><p>S&P 500 index funds are mutual funds or ETFs that mimic the familiar stock indices that track the 500 largest companies in the United States. Despite the pandemic, the S&P 500 surged 16% in 2020 and hit a new high in 2021.</p><p>\"I like Berkshire, but I think someone who knows nothing about stocks and doesn't have any special feelings for Berkshire, they should buy the S&P 500,\" Buffett told a shareholder meeting in Los Angeles.</p><p>02 Be Practical-Even When the Market Is Losing Its Mind</p><p>Buffett recommends a long-term and practical approach for investors, rather than \"making 30 or 40 trades a day.\"</p><p>During the conference, Buffett presented two slides showing the 20 largest companies in the world by market capitalization today and in 1989. None of the companies that made the list in' 89 were from the 2021 edition. The lesson is: Things are impermanent, and picking winners is not easy.</p><p>\"If you only own diversified stocks, like U.S. stocks, that would be my preference, but hold them for more than 30 years,\" he said.</p><p>03 Don't expect a pension</p><p>One of the more worrying trends Buffett delved into at the Berkshire Hathaway conference is the growing precariousness of many state pension funds, an issue he said he's been watching since 2013.</p><p>\"The pension situation in a lot of states is terrible,\" Buffett said. \"It's not getting better. Obviously, it's not getting better at all.\"</p><p>The pandemic has killed state finances and will only exacerbate the pension problem for which there is currently no long-term solution. Before the pandemic began, state pension plans already lacked $1 trillion to meet future obligations to retirees, according to Pew Charitable Trusts.</p><p>04 Investors should be wary of certain investments</p><p>Buffett dumped airline stocks because of COVID-19.</p><p>The pandemic crisis devastated the entire aviation industry, yet airlines survived with the help of the government. But without that support, you'd see a whole new plane crash. The industry still has months to go before normal business (and normal profit margins) can resume.</p><p>\"I still don't want to buy an airline,\" Buffett told his Berkshire shareholders.</p><p>Shares of Delta Air Lines (DAL), one of the airlines Berkshire sold off from its portfolio, fell by more than half between March 1 and May 15 last year. Since then, the stock and other major U.S. airlines have recovered, but Buffett has little confidence in the economic fundamentals of the aviation industry.</p><p>05 Stick to your long-term plans</p><p>Stick to your financial goals, Buffett says. Buffett remains confident that the U.S. economy will rebound from the COVID-19 crisis, but he told shareholders that the future is far from certain.</p><p>\"You can bet on the United States, but you have to be careful how you bet,\" he said. He later reiterated that the world can change in \"very, very dramatic ways\".</p><p>Buffett has never wavered in his belief that holding stocks for a long time is the right investment strategy for a stable financial future. He was even reminded at the Berkshire conference that he once said it was \"too short\" to hold a stock forever.</p><p>06 Making the most of low interest rates</p><p>With interest rates falling, Buffett says it's a good time to borrow money.</p><p>With the Federal Reserve pledging to keep its key interest rate near zero, Buffett sees an excellent opportunity for borrowers in 2021.</p><p>\"These are fascinating times,\" Buffett told investors, adding that the low interest rate environment is \"very pleasant.\"</p><p>\"The economy fell off a cliff in March 2020,\" Buffett said. \"Through the actions of the Federal Reserve, it was brought back to life in a very effective way.\"</p><p>07 Avoiding Credit Card Debt</p><p>If you have credit card debt, get rid of it, Buffett said.</p><p>The pandemic has led to business closures and layoffs, forcing millions of Americans to rely on credit cards for basic financial needs. It's a good survival strategy, but the resulting balance and high interest rates can create long-term financial stress.</p><p>At Berkshire's 2020 online shareholder meeting, he recalled the advice he gave to a friend who got a windfall and was considering the smartest way to spend. She told Buffett that she still had credit card debt — at 18% interest.</p><p>Buffett remembers telling her, \"If I had 18% debt, the first thing I would do with the money on hand is pay it off.\"\"You can't borrow money at this rate for the rest of your life and be better off.\"</p><p>08 Always Prepare for the Worst</p><p>Buffett says a \"catastrophe\" is coming. It's not for nothing to call Buffett an \"oracle\". In 2019, he warned of a \"megacatastrophe\" ahead of the world that would dwarf the chaos caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Michael.</p><p>When the pandemic first hit the U.S., Buffett said in an interview, \"I always felt that a pandemic was going to happen sooner or later.\"</p><p>You would think that someone who has invested so much in the insurance industry would have the foresight — Berkshire owns Geico and several other insurers — that preparing for the worst is a central part of the business model.</p><p>\"We've seen some strange things happening in the world over the last 15 months,\" he told his investors this year. \"And we're always aware that weirder things are going to happen in the future.\"</p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buffett's 8 valuable lessons and lessons from the pandemic</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuffett's 8 valuable lessons and lessons from the pandemic\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经 </strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-29 15:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>One of the ways many people succeed is to treat every crisis as an opportunity.</b>Although Buffett has donated billions to charity, his net worth crossed the $100 billion mark in March of this year. Not only has Buffett gotten richer, but he has brought some valuable lessons for other investors.</p><p>01 New investment? Utilizing the S&P 500</p><p>At Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting last month, Buffett talked about one of his favorite investments — one that emerged as a winner during the pandemic.</p><p>\"I recommend the S&P 500 index fund and have been recommending it to people for a long time,\" Buffett said, adding that 90 percent of the money he leaves to his wife will go to the S&P 500 after his death.</p><p>S&P 500 index funds are mutual funds or ETFs that mimic the familiar stock indices that track the 500 largest companies in the United States. Despite the pandemic, the S&P 500 surged 16% in 2020 and hit a new high in 2021.</p><p>\"I like Berkshire, but I think someone who knows nothing about stocks and doesn't have any special feelings for Berkshire, they should buy the S&P 500,\" Buffett told a shareholder meeting in Los Angeles.</p><p>02 Be Practical-Even When the Market Is Losing Its Mind</p><p>Buffett recommends a long-term and practical approach for investors, rather than \"making 30 or 40 trades a day.\"</p><p>During the conference, Buffett presented two slides showing the 20 largest companies in the world by market capitalization today and in 1989. None of the companies that made the list in' 89 were from the 2021 edition. The lesson is: Things are impermanent, and picking winners is not easy.</p><p>\"If you only own diversified stocks, like U.S. stocks, that would be my preference, but hold them for more than 30 years,\" he said.</p><p>03 Don't expect a pension</p><p>One of the more worrying trends Buffett delved into at the Berkshire Hathaway conference is the growing precariousness of many state pension funds, an issue he said he's been watching since 2013.</p><p>\"The pension situation in a lot of states is terrible,\" Buffett said. \"It's not getting better. Obviously, it's not getting better at all.\"</p><p>The pandemic has killed state finances and will only exacerbate the pension problem for which there is currently no long-term solution. Before the pandemic began, state pension plans already lacked $1 trillion to meet future obligations to retirees, according to Pew Charitable Trusts.</p><p>04 Investors should be wary of certain investments</p><p>Buffett dumped airline stocks because of COVID-19.</p><p>The pandemic crisis devastated the entire aviation industry, yet airlines survived with the help of the government. But without that support, you'd see a whole new plane crash. The industry still has months to go before normal business (and normal profit margins) can resume.</p><p>\"I still don't want to buy an airline,\" Buffett told his Berkshire shareholders.</p><p>Shares of Delta Air Lines (DAL), one of the airlines Berkshire sold off from its portfolio, fell by more than half between March 1 and May 15 last year. Since then, the stock and other major U.S. airlines have recovered, but Buffett has little confidence in the economic fundamentals of the aviation industry.</p><p>05 Stick to your long-term plans</p><p>Stick to your financial goals, Buffett says. Buffett remains confident that the U.S. economy will rebound from the COVID-19 crisis, but he told shareholders that the future is far from certain.</p><p>\"You can bet on the United States, but you have to be careful how you bet,\" he said. He later reiterated that the world can change in \"very, very dramatic ways\".</p><p>Buffett has never wavered in his belief that holding stocks for a long time is the right investment strategy for a stable financial future. He was even reminded at the Berkshire conference that he once said it was \"too short\" to hold a stock forever.</p><p>06 Making the most of low interest rates</p><p>With interest rates falling, Buffett says it's a good time to borrow money.</p><p>With the Federal Reserve pledging to keep its key interest rate near zero, Buffett sees an excellent opportunity for borrowers in 2021.</p><p>\"These are fascinating times,\" Buffett told investors, adding that the low interest rate environment is \"very pleasant.\"</p><p>\"The economy fell off a cliff in March 2020,\" Buffett said. \"Through the actions of the Federal Reserve, it was brought back to life in a very effective way.\"</p><p>07 Avoiding Credit Card Debt</p><p>If you have credit card debt, get rid of it, Buffett said.</p><p>The pandemic has led to business closures and layoffs, forcing millions of Americans to rely on credit cards for basic financial needs. It's a good survival strategy, but the resulting balance and high interest rates can create long-term financial stress.</p><p>At Berkshire's 2020 online shareholder meeting, he recalled the advice he gave to a friend who got a windfall and was considering the smartest way to spend. She told Buffett that she still had credit card debt — at 18% interest.</p><p>Buffett remembers telling her, \"If I had 18% debt, the first thing I would do with the money on hand is pay it off.\"\"You can't borrow money at this rate for the rest of your life and be better off.\"</p><p>08 Always Prepare for the Worst</p><p>Buffett says a \"catastrophe\" is coming. It's not for nothing to call Buffett an \"oracle\". In 2019, he warned of a \"megacatastrophe\" ahead of the world that would dwarf the chaos caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Michael.</p><p>When the pandemic first hit the U.S., Buffett said in an interview, \"I always felt that a pandemic was going to happen sooner or later.\"</p><p>You would think that someone who has invested so much in the insurance industry would have the foresight — Berkshire owns Geico and several other insurers — that preparing for the worst is a central part of the business model.</p><p>\"We've seen some strange things happening in the world over the last 15 months,\" he told his investors this year. \"And we're always aware that weirder things are going to happen in the future.\"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/503261.html\">智通财经 </a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9beffeecb928009bf6287e307899ffe3","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/503261.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162626672","content_text":"许多人成功的方法之一是把每一次危机都当作一个机会来对待。尽管巴菲特向慈善机构捐赠了数十亿美元，但他的净资产在今年3月突破了1000亿美元大关。巴菲特不仅变得更富有，还为其他投资者带来了一些宝贵的经验教训。\n01  新投资吗?利用标普500\n在上个月伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的年会上，巴菲特谈到了他最喜欢的一项投资——该投资在疫情期间成为赢家。\n巴菲特说:“我推荐标普500指数基金，并且长期以来一直向人们推荐。”他还说，在他去世后，他留给妻子的90%的钱将进入标普500基金。\n标普500指数基金是模仿人们熟悉的跟踪美国500家最大公司的股票指数的共同基金或ETF。尽管疫情爆发，标普500指数在2020年飙升16%，并在2021年创下新高。\n巴菲特在洛杉矶的股东大会上表示:“我喜欢伯克希尔，但我认为一个对股票一无所知，对伯克希尔没有任何特殊感觉的人，他们应该购买标普500指数。”\n02  要实际——即使在市场失去理智的时候\n巴菲特建议投资者长期且实际的方法，而不是“每天进行30或40笔交易。”\n在会议期间，巴菲特展示了两张幻灯片，展示了当今和1989年全球市值最大的20家公司。89年上榜的公司没有一家是2021年版的。教训是:世事无常，挑选赢家并不容易。\n\"如果你只持有多元化的股票，比如美国股票，那将是我的偏好，但要持有超过30年，\"他说。\n03  不要指望养老金\n巴菲特在伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的会议上深入研究的一个更令人担忧的趋势，许多州养老基金的地位越来越不稳定，他说他从2013年就开始关注这个问题。\n巴菲特说:“很多州的养老金状况都很糟糕。”“情况并没有好转。显然，情况一点也没有好转。”\n疫情已经扼杀了各州的财政，只会加剧目前没有长期解决方案的养老金问题。Pew Charitable Trusts的数据显示，在大流行开始之前，国家养老金计划已经缺乏1万亿美元的资金来满足未来对退休人员的义务。\n04  投资者应该对某些投资保持警惕\n巴菲特因为COVID-19的原因抛售了航空股。\n疫情危机摧毁了整个航空行业，然而航空公司在政府的帮助下幸存下来。但如果没有这种支持，你会看到一场全新的空难。要想恢复正常的业务(以及正常的利润率)，该行业还有好几个月的时间。\n“我还是不想买航空公司，”巴菲特告诉他的伯克希尔股东。\n达美航空(DAL)是伯克希尔从其投资组合中抛售的航空公司之一，该公司股价在去年3月1日至5月15日期间下跌了一半以上。此后，该股和美国其他主要航空公司的股价都有所回升，但巴菲特对航空业的经济基本面没有多大信心。\n05  坚持你的长期计划\n巴菲特说，要坚持你的财务目标。巴菲特仍然相信，美国经济将从COVID - 19危机中反弹，但他告诉股东，未来远非确定。\n“你可以押注美国，但你必须小心如何押注，”他说。他后来重申，世界可以以“非常、非常戏剧性的方式”发生变化。\n巴菲特从来没有动摇过他的信念，长期持有股票是一个稳定的财务未来的正确投资策略。在伯克希尔的会议上，他甚至被提醒说，他曾经说过永远持有一只股票“太短了”。\n06  充分利用低利率\n随着利率的下降，巴菲特说现在是借钱的好时机。\n由于美联储承诺将关键利率维持在接近零的水平，巴菲特认为2021年借款人将有极好的机会。\n“这是一个迷人的时代，”巴菲特告诉投资者，并补充说低利率环境“非常令人愉快”。\n“经济在2020年3月跌落悬崖，”巴菲特说。“通过美联储的行动，它以一种非常有效的方式复活了。”\n07  避免信用卡债务\n巴菲特说，如果你有信用卡债务，那就摆脱它。\n疫情导致企业关闭和裁员，迫使数百万美国人依靠信用卡来满足基本的金融需求。这是一个很好的生存策略，但由此产生的平衡和高利率会造成长期的财务压力。\n在伯克希尔2020年的在线股东大会上，他回忆了自己给一位获得意外之财的朋友的建议，这位朋友当时正在考虑最明智的消费方式。她告诉巴菲特，她还有信用卡债务——利息为18%。\n巴菲特记得对她说:“如果我有18%的债务，我会用手头的钱做的第一件事就是还清。”“你不可能一辈子都以这样的利率借钱，然后过得更好。”\n08  总是做最坏打算\n巴菲特说，一场“大灾难”即将来临。称巴菲特为“神谕”不是没有原因的。2019年，他警告说，世界将迎来一场“特大灾难”，这将使卡特里娜飓风和迈克尔飓风造成的混乱相形见绌。\n当疫情首次袭击美国时，巴菲特在一次采访中说，“我一直觉得一场大流行迟早会发生。”\n你可能会认为，在保险业投入如此之多的人会有这样的远见——伯克希尔哈撒韦拥有Geico和其他几家保险公司——为最坏的情况做准备是商业模式的核心部分。\n“过去15个月里，我们看到世界上发生了一些奇怪的事情，”他今年告诉他的投资者。“而且我们总是意识到未来会发生更奇怪的事情。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128011695,"gmtCreate":1624495130017,"gmtModify":1703838244301,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9b8f75db4c14f22597f42cb3752e117","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584066196704033","authorIdStr":"3584066196704033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/128011695","repostId":"2145015041","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2145015041","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624484271,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2145015041?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-24 05:37","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Foreign media headlines: Fed officials hawk again and expect to raise interest rates in 2022","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145015041","media":"新浪财经","summary":"达拉斯联储行长Robert Kaplan表示，美国经济可能比人们预期的更早达到美联储缩减资产购买规模的门槛，他还预期明年会加息。耶伦周三在参议院拨款委员会的听证会上表示，如果不采取行动，将带来“灾难性”的经济后果。此外，去年死亡人数超过出生人数的州的数量明显走高。最新的数据初步表明了疫情对出生率的重大影响，2021年的数据将给出更加完整的面貌。Walensky表示，在大量人口未接受疫苗接种的地区，民众感染Covid-19的风险最高。","content":"<p><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid common attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. The Federal Reserve's Bostic expects to raise interest rates in 2022 or decide to scale back asset purchases in the next few months. Kaplan believes that it is better to start the reduction sooner rather than later</b><b>2. Buffett resigned as trustee of the Gates Foundation to avoid the Gates couple's divorce entanglement</b><b>3. Sales of new homes in the U.S. fell unexpectedly in May Record home prices weighed on sales</b><b>4. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen: The United States may reach the debt default point in August</b><b>5. The epidemic led to a significant decline in the birth rate in the United States, which plummeted by 8% in a single month in December last year</b><b>6. U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: The rapid spread of the Delta variant has accounted for one-fifth of the number of new crown cases in the United States</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1e0c57f14d05ad745e180394afaae7\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The Federal Reserve's Bostic expects to raise interest rates in 2022 or decide to taper asset purchases in the coming months Kaplan thinks it is better to start the reduction sooner rather than later</b></p><p>Raphael Bostic, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said the Federal Reserve may decide to slow its asset purchases in the coming months, and that he favored raising interest rates in 2022 in response to a faster-than-expected economic recovery.</p><p>\"Given the recent higher-than-expected data, I have moved forward my timing expectation for the first rate hike to the end of 2022,\" Bostic told reporters Wednesday after a speech at the Russell Innovation Center for Entrepreneurs. \"I expect rate hike twice in 2023.\"</p><p>Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said the U.S. economy could reach the threshold of the Fed's tapering of asset purchases sooner than people expected, and he also expected a rate hike next year.</p><p>\"If we make these asset purchases for longer than we need, it may actually reduce our flexibility to adjust interest rates for me,\" Kaplan said. \"Assuming our conditions are met, I'd rather start tapering bond purchases sooner rather than later, so that we can have more flexibility in determining the level of interest rates going forward.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77c6bf3c69f764f04550fb89093c95d4\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Buffett resigns as trustee of the Gates Foundation to avoid the Gates couple's divorce entanglement</b></p><p>Buffett has resigned as a trustee of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, a charity facing the brunt of the Gates' divorce.</p><p>\"My goals are 100% aligned with the foundation's goals,\" Buffett, now 90, said in a statement Wednesday. He also announced that his<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>The goal of donating all shares to charity is halfway through.</p><p>Over the past 15 years, Buffett has donated more than $27 billion to the Gates Foundation. He is one of three directors of the Gates Foundation. The other two directors are Bill Gates and Melinda French Gates, who last month announced the end of their 27-year marriage. Buffett is not involved in the investment decisions of the endowment, the foundation said.</p><p>Foundation CEO Mark Suzman told staff last month that he was in consultation on strengthening \"the foundation's long-term sustainability and stability.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a49be633b3fa5fe3714d6aa3d5b0c64\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>U.S. new-build home sales drop unexpectedly in May Record home prices drag down sales</b></p><p>Sales of new-build homes in the U.S. unexpectedly fell in May as rising home prices constrained sales in the market.</p><p>Government data released Wednesday showed that sales of new single-family homes fell 5.9% to an annual rate of 769,000 units in May, after April figures were revised downward to 817,000 units. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had a median estimate of 865,000.</p><p>Transportation bottlenecks and rising input costs have weighed on home construction, causing prices to skyrocket for limited listings on the market. The upbeat aspect of the report, though, is that the number of new-build residential inventories continues to rise, although a third of them have yet to start construction.</p><p>The median sale price of new-build homes rose to a record $374,000.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27fdbaf956751c55f7d79b8c21eb383c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen: The U.S. may reach debt default point in August</b></p><p>U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she implored Congress to raise or suspend the U.S. debt ceiling before the current suspension ends on July 31, or the U.S. could default on its debt as early as August.</p><p>Failure to act would have \"catastrophic\" economic consequences, Yellen said at a hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee on Wednesday.</p><p>Yellen had said in May that temporary measures to avoid breaking the debt ceiling could be exhausted this summer.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59c161b09e520e98fe249029eee0f373\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The pandemic caused the U.S. birth rate to decline significantly, plunging 8% in a single month last December</b></p><p>The decline in the U.S. birth rate accelerated in the second half of last year, falling 8% in December, nine months after the anti-pandemic emergency was declared, according to data released Wednesday by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.</p><p>All of last year, the number of births across the United States fell 4 percent to about 3.6 million, the biggest drop since 1973.</p><p>Additionally, the number of states with more deaths than births last year was significantly higher.</p><p>The latest data gives a preliminary indication of the significant impact of the pandemic on birth rates, and the 2021 data will give a more complete picture.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfa0dc4fba0ce47c9decefa9827605ef\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>CDC: The rapid spread of the Delta variant has accounted for a fifth of the number of COVID-19 cases in the United States</b></p><p>The head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said the delta variant of the new coronavirus is spreading rapidly in the United States and now accounts for a fifth of recent coronavirus cases.</p><p>A few weeks ago, the delta variant accounted for just 3% of the number of cases analyzed, Rochelle Walensky said Wednesday at the Milken Institute's Future Health Summit.</p><p>Walensky said people are at the highest risk of contracting Covid-19 in areas where large numbers of people are not vaccinated.</p><p>The numbers given by Walensky are consistent with other recent data, suggesting that this delta variant of the virus is gaining a foothold in the United States.</p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign media headlines: Fed officials hawk again and expect to raise interest rates in 2022</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign media headlines: Fed officials hawk again and expect to raise interest rates in 2022\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 05:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid common attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. The Federal Reserve's Bostic expects to raise interest rates in 2022 or decide to scale back asset purchases in the next few months. Kaplan believes that it is better to start the reduction sooner rather than later</b><b>2. Buffett resigned as trustee of the Gates Foundation to avoid the Gates couple's divorce entanglement</b><b>3. Sales of new homes in the U.S. fell unexpectedly in May Record home prices weighed on sales</b><b>4. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen: The United States may reach the debt default point in August</b><b>5. The epidemic led to a significant decline in the birth rate in the United States, which plummeted by 8% in a single month in December last year</b><b>6. U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: The rapid spread of the Delta variant has accounted for one-fifth of the number of new crown cases in the United States</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1e0c57f14d05ad745e180394afaae7\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The Federal Reserve's Bostic expects to raise interest rates in 2022 or decide to taper asset purchases in the coming months Kaplan thinks it is better to start the reduction sooner rather than later</b></p><p>Raphael Bostic, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said the Federal Reserve may decide to slow its asset purchases in the coming months, and that he favored raising interest rates in 2022 in response to a faster-than-expected economic recovery.</p><p>\"Given the recent higher-than-expected data, I have moved forward my timing expectation for the first rate hike to the end of 2022,\" Bostic told reporters Wednesday after a speech at the Russell Innovation Center for Entrepreneurs. \"I expect rate hike twice in 2023.\"</p><p>Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said the U.S. economy could reach the threshold of the Fed's tapering of asset purchases sooner than people expected, and he also expected a rate hike next year.</p><p>\"If we make these asset purchases for longer than we need, it may actually reduce our flexibility to adjust interest rates for me,\" Kaplan said. \"Assuming our conditions are met, I'd rather start tapering bond purchases sooner rather than later, so that we can have more flexibility in determining the level of interest rates going forward.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77c6bf3c69f764f04550fb89093c95d4\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Buffett resigns as trustee of the Gates Foundation to avoid the Gates couple's divorce entanglement</b></p><p>Buffett has resigned as a trustee of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, a charity facing the brunt of the Gates' divorce.</p><p>\"My goals are 100% aligned with the foundation's goals,\" Buffett, now 90, said in a statement Wednesday. He also announced that his<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>The goal of donating all shares to charity is halfway through.</p><p>Over the past 15 years, Buffett has donated more than $27 billion to the Gates Foundation. He is one of three directors of the Gates Foundation. The other two directors are Bill Gates and Melinda French Gates, who last month announced the end of their 27-year marriage. Buffett is not involved in the investment decisions of the endowment, the foundation said.</p><p>Foundation CEO Mark Suzman told staff last month that he was in consultation on strengthening \"the foundation's long-term sustainability and stability.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a49be633b3fa5fe3714d6aa3d5b0c64\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>U.S. new-build home sales drop unexpectedly in May Record home prices drag down sales</b></p><p>Sales of new-build homes in the U.S. unexpectedly fell in May as rising home prices constrained sales in the market.</p><p>Government data released Wednesday showed that sales of new single-family homes fell 5.9% to an annual rate of 769,000 units in May, after April figures were revised downward to 817,000 units. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had a median estimate of 865,000.</p><p>Transportation bottlenecks and rising input costs have weighed on home construction, causing prices to skyrocket for limited listings on the market. The upbeat aspect of the report, though, is that the number of new-build residential inventories continues to rise, although a third of them have yet to start construction.</p><p>The median sale price of new-build homes rose to a record $374,000.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27fdbaf956751c55f7d79b8c21eb383c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen: The U.S. may reach debt default point in August</b></p><p>U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she implored Congress to raise or suspend the U.S. debt ceiling before the current suspension ends on July 31, or the U.S. could default on its debt as early as August.</p><p>Failure to act would have \"catastrophic\" economic consequences, Yellen said at a hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee on Wednesday.</p><p>Yellen had said in May that temporary measures to avoid breaking the debt ceiling could be exhausted this summer.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59c161b09e520e98fe249029eee0f373\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The pandemic caused the U.S. birth rate to decline significantly, plunging 8% in a single month last December</b></p><p>The decline in the U.S. birth rate accelerated in the second half of last year, falling 8% in December, nine months after the anti-pandemic emergency was declared, according to data released Wednesday by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.</p><p>All of last year, the number of births across the United States fell 4 percent to about 3.6 million, the biggest drop since 1973.</p><p>Additionally, the number of states with more deaths than births last year was significantly higher.</p><p>The latest data gives a preliminary indication of the significant impact of the pandemic on birth rates, and the 2021 data will give a more complete picture.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfa0dc4fba0ce47c9decefa9827605ef\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>CDC: The rapid spread of the Delta variant has accounted for a fifth of the number of COVID-19 cases in the United States</b></p><p>The head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said the delta variant of the new coronavirus is spreading rapidly in the United States and now accounts for a fifth of recent coronavirus cases.</p><p>A few weeks ago, the delta variant accounted for just 3% of the number of cases analyzed, Rochelle Walensky said Wednesday at the Milken Institute's Future Health Summit.</p><p>Walensky said people are at the highest risk of contracting Covid-19 in areas where large numbers of people are not vaccinated.</p><p>The numbers given by Walensky are consistent with other recent data, suggesting that this delta variant of the virus is gaining a foothold in the United States.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/norm_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-06-24/doc-ikqcfnca2854704.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af1d75a2b7a7bd95e0102711f4f871de","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SPY":"标普500ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/norm_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-06-24/doc-ikqcfnca2854704.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145015041","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：\n\n1、美联储Bostic预计2022年加息 未来数月或决定缩减资产购买 Kaplan认为启动减码宜早不宜迟\n\n\n2、巴菲特辞去盖茨基金会受托人身份 回避盖茨夫妇离婚纠葛\n\n\n3、美国5月份新建住宅销量出人意料下降 创纪录的房价拖累了销售\n\n\n4、美国财长耶伦：美国可能在8月达到债务违约点\n\n\n5、疫情导致美国出生率明显下滑 去年12月单月骤降8%\n\n\n6、美国疾控中心：Delta变种迅速传播 已占美国新冠病例数的五分之一\n\n美联储Bostic预计2022年加息 未来数月或决定缩减资产购买 Kaplan认为启动减码宜早不宜迟\n亚特兰大联邦储备银行行长Raphael Bostic表示，美联储可能会在未来几个月决定放慢资产购买速度，并且他赞成在2022年加息以应对经济复苏快于预期的情况。\n“鉴于最近数据高于预期，我已将我对首次加息的时间预期提前到2022年末，”Bostic周三在Russell Innovation Center for Entrepreneurs发表演讲后对记者表示，“我预期2023年会加息两次。”\n达拉斯联储行长Robert Kaplan表示，美国经济可能比人们预期的更早达到美联储缩减资产购买规模的门槛，他还预期明年会加息。\n“如果我们进行这些资产购买所持续的时间超过所需，对我来说实际上可能会降低我们调整利率的灵活性，”Kaplan表示，“假设我们的条件得到满足，我宁愿开始缩减购债规模，宜早不宜迟，这样我们就可以更灵活地决定未来的利率水平。”巴菲特辞去盖茨基金会受托人身份 回避盖茨夫妇离婚纠葛\n巴菲特辞去比尔及梅琳达-盖茨基金会的受托人职务，而这个慈善机构正面临盖茨夫妇离婚带来的冲击。\n“我的目标100%与基金会的目标一致，”现年90岁的巴菲特周三在一份声明中表示。他还宣布，将他所持伯克希尔所有股份捐赠给慈善机构的目标已经完成一半。\n过去15年，巴菲特向盖茨基金会捐赠超过270亿美元。他是盖茨基金会的三位董事之一。另两位董事是比尔-盖茨和梅琳达-弗兰奇-盖茨，他们上个月宣布结束27年的婚姻。该基金会称，巴菲特不参与捐赠基金的投资决策。\n基金会首席执行官Mark Suzman上个月告诉员工，他正在就加强“基金会的长期可持续性和稳定性”进行协商。美国5月份新建住宅销量出人意料下降 创纪录的房价拖累了销售\n美国5月份新建住宅销量意外下降，因房价上涨限制了市场的销售。\n周三公布的政府数据显示，5月份新建单户住宅销量减少5.9%至折合年率76.9万套，4月的数据向下修正为81.7万套。接受彭博调查的经济学家的预期中值为86.5万套。\n运输瓶颈和投入成本上升拖累房屋建设，导致市场上有限的房源价格飙升。不过，报告中令人乐观的一点是，新建住宅库存数量继续上升，尽管其中三分之一尚未开工建设。\n新建住宅售价中值上升至创纪录的37.4万美元。美国财长耶伦：美国可能在8月达到债务违约点\n美国财长珍妮特·耶伦表示，她恳请国会在当前的债务上限暂停于7月31日告终之前提高或暂停美国的债务上限，否则美国最早可能在8月发生债务违约。\n耶伦周三在参议院拨款委员会的听证会上表示，如果不采取行动，将带来“灾难性”的经济后果。\n耶伦在5月份曾表示，避免突破债务上限的临时措施可能在今年夏天用尽。疫情导致美国出生率明显下滑 去年12月单月骤降8%\n美国疾控中心周三发布的数据显示，美国去年下半年人口出生率降幅加快，在距离抗疫紧急状态宣布九个月后的12月，出生率下降了8%。\n去年全年，全美新生儿数量下降了4%，至大约360万人，为1973年以来最大降幅。\n此外，去年死亡人数超过出生人数的州的数量明显走高。\n最新的数据初步表明了疫情对出生率的重大影响，2021年的数据将给出更加完整的面貌。美国疾控中心：Delta变种迅速传播 已占美国新冠病例数的五分之一\n美国疾病控制和预防中心（CDC）的负责人表示，新冠病毒的delta变种正在美国迅速传播，目前占近期冠状病毒病例的五分之一。\nRochelle Walensky周三在米尔肯研究院的未来健康峰会上表示，几周之前，delta变种还仅占所分析病例数的3%。\nWalensky表示，在大量人口未接受疫苗接种的地区，民众感染Covid-19的风险最高。\nWalensky给出的数字与其他最近的数据一致，表明这个delta变种病毒正在美国站稳脚跟。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"QID":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QLD":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SH":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SDOW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":562,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143132851,"gmtCreate":1625778972873,"gmtModify":1703748253032,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9b8f75db4c14f22597f42cb3752e117","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584066196704033","authorIdStr":"3584066196704033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/143132851","repostId":"1175143290","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175143290","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625736183,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175143290?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-08 17:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What's Next for the Fed?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175143290","media":" FT中文网","summary":"是先缩减购债规模还是先加息？","content":"<p>Stronger economic data and high inflation have led the market to speculate that the Federal Reserve may accelerate the tightening of monetary policy. Will the Fed tighten monetary policy next? Should we reduce the scale of bond purchases first or rate hike first? Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States hit a record high in June, recording 62.6, exceeding the expected value of 61.5 and the previous value of 62.1. The US went from deflation in May last year (down 0.1% year-on-year) to year-on-year inflation reaching a new high in 2008 in May this year (up 5% year-on-year). The relatively strong U.S. economic data and high inflation have led the market to speculate that the Federal Reserve may accelerate the tightening of monetary policy.</p><p>However, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting in June still maintained the zero interest rate monetary policy, and the monthly bond purchase scale remained unchanged. With the continuous improvement of high inflation and economic data, many Federal Reserve chairmen have recently pre-communicated the future monetary policy in the open market. Will the Fed tighten monetary policy next? If tightening, should we Taper bond purchases first or rate hike first?<b>The economic data is improving, why is the Fed hesitant?</b></p><p>Manufacturing expanded steadily in June, with the Institute of Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) recording 60.6 in June. Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States hit a record high in June, recording 62.6, exceeding the expected value of 61.5 and the previous value of 62.1. Recently, the U.S. economic data has continued to improve. In May, the United States reported a 5.0% year-over-year increase in inflation and a 3.8% year-over-year increase in Core inflation (Core CPI). Under the continuous positive economic data and high inflation, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting in June still maintained zero interest rate, and the monthly bond purchase scale remained unchanged. So why is the Fed still hesitant?</p><p>I think there are actually several aspects to analyze, the first may be the political level, and the second may be the economic level. However, the political level is more complicated, involving partisanship between Democrats and Republicans, * issues, and I will not explain too much here.</p><p>From an economic perspective, the Fed's monetary policy goals are two: jobs and inflation. At different times, the Fed's monetary policy goals are roughly the same, but it also takes into account other economic factors besides employment and inflation.</p><p>First, the Fed's inflation target is set at 2%, and the core CPE in May increased by 3.9% year-on-year. Even considering the base period effect of 2020 (if we observe the inflation from March to May 2020, the base period effect of high inflation in May leads to the contribution of high inflation of about 1.1%), the inflation in May may reach 3.9% (5.0%-1.1%) year-on-year. Therefore, from the current year-on-year inflation data, it is fully consistent with the Fed's tightening action. So will inflation peak and fall in the future, and will the United States still face high inflation in the second half of 2021?</p><p>Compared with the year-on-year inflation data, the month-on-month inflation data is also very important, and the inflation in the next six months can be predicted through the month-on-month inflation data. The author predicts through two scenarios:</p><p>Even assuming that the current price index of end-consumer goods remains unchanged from June to the end of this year (that is, assuming that the inflation growth is 0 month-on-month), it is predicted that the inflation in December this year will be about 2.9% ~3.0% year-on-year, which is actually a relatively high level compared with the inflation target of 2%. Therefore, based on the above assumptions, the second half of 2021 will still be at a high inflation level.</p><p>Scenario 2: Assuming that inflation growth in the second half of the year is forecast at an average of 0.3% month over month, inflation will still grow at a high 5.0% year over year at the end of the year. From this forecast, it should be difficult to say that inflation will fall back quickly in the second half of this year. It should be said that there is still relatively large inflationary pressure in the United States in the second half of the year.</p><p>Of course, it is not ruled out that in the second half of this year, due to various reasons, such as poor vaccination, the global economic recession caused by the outbreak of the epidemic again, in which case the inflation data may also fall rapidly. Otherwise, inflationary pressures are still there in the second half of 2021. Based on the inflation forecast of the above assumptions, inflation has actually met the rate hike conditions of the Federal Reserve.</p><p>Second, I think the key reason for the Fed's hesitation is that the recovery of employment data is not up to expectations. Affected by the pandemic in March 2020, the unemployment rate in the United States reached a peak of nearly 15%. In June, the unemployment rate was still 5.9%, slightly higher than 5.8% in May, and the market expected 5.6%. The unemployment rate has declined steadily since the beginning of the year. The current unemployment rate of 5.9% is actually higher than the natural unemployment rate of the Federal Reserve. The unemployment rate remains high is an important factor preventing the current rapid tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. In the week of July 1, the number of first-time jobless claims was 364,000, compared with the previous value of 375,000 and the expected value of 411,000, which is still some distance from the pre-pandemic average of 200,000.</p><p>Therefore, despite high economic data and inflation, the Fed's hesitancy to tighten monetary policy is mainly because there is still a gap in employment recovery.<b>What's Next for the Fed?</b></p><p><b>First, inflation is not a key factor for the Fed next.</b>May PCE and core PCE were 3.9% and 3.4%. Judging from the author's forecast above, the overall average inflation in the second half of 2021 will not be lower than 3.0%, and the inflation CPI in 2022 is expected to be higher than 2.0%. Core PCE averages for 2021 and 2022 are projected to still likely be above 2%. Therefore, from the perspective of inflation expectations, although the second quarter of 2021 is the phased high of inflation in the United States, with the economic recovery and the rise of commodity prices, it should be difficult for inflation in the United States to quickly fall below 2% in a short time in the future. Therefore, inflation is not the key factor preventing the Fed from tightening monetary policy.</p><p><b>Second, the Fed's next key step is to examine the recovery degree of the job market.</b>The June non-farm employment data released on July 2nd increased to 850,000, a sharp increase from 559,000 in the previous period. But the unemployment rate remained at 5.9% in June, up slightly from 5.8% in May. The current unemployment rate is still far behind the Fed's target rate. In the next step, whether the Federal Reserve will tighten its monetary policy quickly, the key focus is whether the U.S. economy can make up the unemployment gap caused by the epidemic under the continuous recovery.</p><p><b>Third, there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy marginally, and it should Taper first and then rate hike.</b>Although the Fomc Meeting in June kept the monetary policy interest rate and monthly bond purchase scale unchanged. However, it is obvious that the market may tighten monetary policy marginally in advance. According to the dot plot of the Federal Reserve, the rate hike time point moved ahead of the last interest rate meeting, and the Federal Reserve raised the overnight reverse repo rate at the meeting. Then, is the next step for the Fed to rate hike or Taper first? I think that according to past experience, the Fed should Taper first and then rate hike. There are several main considerations:</p><p>(1) From the historical experience, the Federal Reserve tapers first and then rate hike. Looking back at the Fed's monetary policy experience in the past 100 years, the Fed's monetary policy has experienced the non-independent monetary policy of World War II in its history, and it has gradually shifted from the previous quantity regulation to price regulation. During the \"Great Relief\" period, the Federal Reserve developed into a more price-dependent regulation (Taylor's rule was used to regulate short-term interest rates), and quantitative regulation itself was an earlier historical tool. After the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2008, the Federal Reserve adopted an unconventional quantitative easing because the monetary policy interest rate could not be lower than zero, and at the same time hoped to increase the rescue measures during the financial crisis. Under the influence of this epidemic, the Fed's balance sheet expansion as a whole was partially restricted by zero interest rate. Therefore, in line with the circumstances, the Fed should withdraw from quantitative easing tools and rely more on price regulation. According to the most recent experience, the Federal Reserve chose to Taper first in 2013, and then launched its first rate hike in December 2015.</p><p>(2) The recent overnight reverse repurchase of the Federal Reserve approaches one trillion yuan, which shows that the monetary environment of the US dollar is extremely loose, and the extremely loose US dollar environment breeds asset price bubbles. That is, funds may not be effectively transmitted to real enterprises, but more flows into the financial market or areas with financial attributes, causing asset prices to skyrocket. Such as recent crude oil prices, commodities and U.S. real estate prices. According to data released on June 29, the U.S. S&P CoreLogic Case-Schiller Real Estate Value Index rose 14.6% year-on-year in April, the biggest increase since 1988. Therefore, on the premise of ensuring economic growth, it is logical for the Federal Reserve to reduce the scale of asset purchases and withdraw excess dollar funds from the market.</p><p>(3) The next monetary policy of the Federal Reserve may also need to be combined with the actual situation of U.S. fiscal policy. Affected by the pandemic, the U.S. fiscal deficit in 2021-2022 has been mounting, and in June the U.S. Treasury Department said that federal fiscal revenue rose 29% to a record $2.6 trillion in the first eight months of the fiscal year. Spending rose 20% to a record $4.7 trillion, mostly for unemployment benefits, nutrition assistance and COVID-19 relief programs, and the U.S. fiscal deficit grew to a record $2.1 trillion in the first eight months of the fiscal year. Second, Biden pushed for trillions of dollars in proposed new spending on infrastructure, clean energy, education and other projects, forecasting a deficit of $1.84 trillion in fiscal 2022 and public-held debt levels exceeding post-World War II levels. It is more conducive to the implementation of proactive fiscal policies to keep the monetary policy interest rate low until the pandemic is completely repaired.</p><p>To sum up, the author still believes that if the U.S. economy gradually comes out of the quagmire and maintains rapid repair, the Fed may next tighten monetary policy marginally from the end of 2021 to 2022, and reduce the scale of bond purchases (Taper) faster than rate hike.</p>","source":"FTZWW","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's Next for the Fed?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's Next for the Fed?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\"> FT中文网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-08 17:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stronger economic data and high inflation have led the market to speculate that the Federal Reserve may accelerate the tightening of monetary policy. Will the Fed tighten monetary policy next? Should we reduce the scale of bond purchases first or rate hike first? Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States hit a record high in June, recording 62.6, exceeding the expected value of 61.5 and the previous value of 62.1. The US went from deflation in May last year (down 0.1% year-on-year) to year-on-year inflation reaching a new high in 2008 in May this year (up 5% year-on-year). The relatively strong U.S. economic data and high inflation have led the market to speculate that the Federal Reserve may accelerate the tightening of monetary policy.</p><p>However, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting in June still maintained the zero interest rate monetary policy, and the monthly bond purchase scale remained unchanged. With the continuous improvement of high inflation and economic data, many Federal Reserve chairmen have recently pre-communicated the future monetary policy in the open market. Will the Fed tighten monetary policy next? If tightening, should we Taper bond purchases first or rate hike first?<b>The economic data is improving, why is the Fed hesitant?</b></p><p>Manufacturing expanded steadily in June, with the Institute of Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) recording 60.6 in June. Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States hit a record high in June, recording 62.6, exceeding the expected value of 61.5 and the previous value of 62.1. Recently, the U.S. economic data has continued to improve. In May, the United States reported a 5.0% year-over-year increase in inflation and a 3.8% year-over-year increase in Core inflation (Core CPI). Under the continuous positive economic data and high inflation, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting in June still maintained zero interest rate, and the monthly bond purchase scale remained unchanged. So why is the Fed still hesitant?</p><p>I think there are actually several aspects to analyze, the first may be the political level, and the second may be the economic level. However, the political level is more complicated, involving partisanship between Democrats and Republicans, * issues, and I will not explain too much here.</p><p>From an economic perspective, the Fed's monetary policy goals are two: jobs and inflation. At different times, the Fed's monetary policy goals are roughly the same, but it also takes into account other economic factors besides employment and inflation.</p><p>First, the Fed's inflation target is set at 2%, and the core CPE in May increased by 3.9% year-on-year. Even considering the base period effect of 2020 (if we observe the inflation from March to May 2020, the base period effect of high inflation in May leads to the contribution of high inflation of about 1.1%), the inflation in May may reach 3.9% (5.0%-1.1%) year-on-year. Therefore, from the current year-on-year inflation data, it is fully consistent with the Fed's tightening action. So will inflation peak and fall in the future, and will the United States still face high inflation in the second half of 2021?</p><p>Compared with the year-on-year inflation data, the month-on-month inflation data is also very important, and the inflation in the next six months can be predicted through the month-on-month inflation data. The author predicts through two scenarios:</p><p>Even assuming that the current price index of end-consumer goods remains unchanged from June to the end of this year (that is, assuming that the inflation growth is 0 month-on-month), it is predicted that the inflation in December this year will be about 2.9% ~3.0% year-on-year, which is actually a relatively high level compared with the inflation target of 2%. Therefore, based on the above assumptions, the second half of 2021 will still be at a high inflation level.</p><p>Scenario 2: Assuming that inflation growth in the second half of the year is forecast at an average of 0.3% month over month, inflation will still grow at a high 5.0% year over year at the end of the year. From this forecast, it should be difficult to say that inflation will fall back quickly in the second half of this year. It should be said that there is still relatively large inflationary pressure in the United States in the second half of the year.</p><p>Of course, it is not ruled out that in the second half of this year, due to various reasons, such as poor vaccination, the global economic recession caused by the outbreak of the epidemic again, in which case the inflation data may also fall rapidly. Otherwise, inflationary pressures are still there in the second half of 2021. Based on the inflation forecast of the above assumptions, inflation has actually met the rate hike conditions of the Federal Reserve.</p><p>Second, I think the key reason for the Fed's hesitation is that the recovery of employment data is not up to expectations. Affected by the pandemic in March 2020, the unemployment rate in the United States reached a peak of nearly 15%. In June, the unemployment rate was still 5.9%, slightly higher than 5.8% in May, and the market expected 5.6%. The unemployment rate has declined steadily since the beginning of the year. The current unemployment rate of 5.9% is actually higher than the natural unemployment rate of the Federal Reserve. The unemployment rate remains high is an important factor preventing the current rapid tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. In the week of July 1, the number of first-time jobless claims was 364,000, compared with the previous value of 375,000 and the expected value of 411,000, which is still some distance from the pre-pandemic average of 200,000.</p><p>Therefore, despite high economic data and inflation, the Fed's hesitancy to tighten monetary policy is mainly because there is still a gap in employment recovery.<b>What's Next for the Fed?</b></p><p><b>First, inflation is not a key factor for the Fed next.</b>May PCE and core PCE were 3.9% and 3.4%. Judging from the author's forecast above, the overall average inflation in the second half of 2021 will not be lower than 3.0%, and the inflation CPI in 2022 is expected to be higher than 2.0%. Core PCE averages for 2021 and 2022 are projected to still likely be above 2%. Therefore, from the perspective of inflation expectations, although the second quarter of 2021 is the phased high of inflation in the United States, with the economic recovery and the rise of commodity prices, it should be difficult for inflation in the United States to quickly fall below 2% in a short time in the future. Therefore, inflation is not the key factor preventing the Fed from tightening monetary policy.</p><p><b>Second, the Fed's next key step is to examine the recovery degree of the job market.</b>The June non-farm employment data released on July 2nd increased to 850,000, a sharp increase from 559,000 in the previous period. But the unemployment rate remained at 5.9% in June, up slightly from 5.8% in May. The current unemployment rate is still far behind the Fed's target rate. In the next step, whether the Federal Reserve will tighten its monetary policy quickly, the key focus is whether the U.S. economy can make up the unemployment gap caused by the epidemic under the continuous recovery.</p><p><b>Third, there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy marginally, and it should Taper first and then rate hike.</b>Although the Fomc Meeting in June kept the monetary policy interest rate and monthly bond purchase scale unchanged. However, it is obvious that the market may tighten monetary policy marginally in advance. According to the dot plot of the Federal Reserve, the rate hike time point moved ahead of the last interest rate meeting, and the Federal Reserve raised the overnight reverse repo rate at the meeting. Then, is the next step for the Fed to rate hike or Taper first? I think that according to past experience, the Fed should Taper first and then rate hike. There are several main considerations:</p><p>(1) From the historical experience, the Federal Reserve tapers first and then rate hike. Looking back at the Fed's monetary policy experience in the past 100 years, the Fed's monetary policy has experienced the non-independent monetary policy of World War II in its history, and it has gradually shifted from the previous quantity regulation to price regulation. During the \"Great Relief\" period, the Federal Reserve developed into a more price-dependent regulation (Taylor's rule was used to regulate short-term interest rates), and quantitative regulation itself was an earlier historical tool. After the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2008, the Federal Reserve adopted an unconventional quantitative easing because the monetary policy interest rate could not be lower than zero, and at the same time hoped to increase the rescue measures during the financial crisis. Under the influence of this epidemic, the Fed's balance sheet expansion as a whole was partially restricted by zero interest rate. Therefore, in line with the circumstances, the Fed should withdraw from quantitative easing tools and rely more on price regulation. According to the most recent experience, the Federal Reserve chose to Taper first in 2013, and then launched its first rate hike in December 2015.</p><p>(2) The recent overnight reverse repurchase of the Federal Reserve approaches one trillion yuan, which shows that the monetary environment of the US dollar is extremely loose, and the extremely loose US dollar environment breeds asset price bubbles. That is, funds may not be effectively transmitted to real enterprises, but more flows into the financial market or areas with financial attributes, causing asset prices to skyrocket. Such as recent crude oil prices, commodities and U.S. real estate prices. According to data released on June 29, the U.S. S&P CoreLogic Case-Schiller Real Estate Value Index rose 14.6% year-on-year in April, the biggest increase since 1988. Therefore, on the premise of ensuring economic growth, it is logical for the Federal Reserve to reduce the scale of asset purchases and withdraw excess dollar funds from the market.</p><p>(3) The next monetary policy of the Federal Reserve may also need to be combined with the actual situation of U.S. fiscal policy. Affected by the pandemic, the U.S. fiscal deficit in 2021-2022 has been mounting, and in June the U.S. Treasury Department said that federal fiscal revenue rose 29% to a record $2.6 trillion in the first eight months of the fiscal year. Spending rose 20% to a record $4.7 trillion, mostly for unemployment benefits, nutrition assistance and COVID-19 relief programs, and the U.S. fiscal deficit grew to a record $2.1 trillion in the first eight months of the fiscal year. Second, Biden pushed for trillions of dollars in proposed new spending on infrastructure, clean energy, education and other projects, forecasting a deficit of $1.84 trillion in fiscal 2022 and public-held debt levels exceeding post-World War II levels. It is more conducive to the implementation of proactive fiscal policies to keep the monetary policy interest rate low until the pandemic is completely repaired.</p><p>To sum up, the author still believes that if the U.S. economy gradually comes out of the quagmire and maintains rapid repair, the Fed may next tighten monetary policy marginally from the end of 2021 to 2022, and reduce the scale of bond purchases (Taper) faster than rate hike.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/g4NMm6zTSYivw_uM5P9O9g\"> FT中文网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/g4NMm6zTSYivw_uM5P9O9g","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175143290","content_text":"较为强劲的经济数据和高通胀，让市场猜测美联储可能加快收紧货币政策。美联储下一步是否会收紧货币政策？是先缩减购债规模还是先加息？\n\n美国6月Markit制造业PMI创纪录新高，录得62.6，超过预期值61.5及前值62.1。美国从去年5月通缩（同比跌0.1%）到今年5月同比通胀创2008年新高（同比增长5%）。较为强劲的美国经济数据和高通胀，让市场猜测美联储可能加快收紧货币政策。\n但6月份美联储货币政策会议仍然保持零利率货币政策，维持每月购债规模维持不变。伴随高通胀和经济数据持续转好，近期多位美联储主席也在公开市场对未来货币政策进行预沟通。美联储下一步是否会收紧货币政策？如果收紧是先缩减购债规模（Taper）还是先加息？经济数据向好，美联储为何犹豫不绝？\n6月制造业稳步扩张，美国供应管理协会(ISM)制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)6月录得60.6。美国6月Markit制造业PMI创纪录新高，录得62.6，超过预期值61.5及前值62.1。近期美国经济数据持续向好。5月美国公布通胀同比增长5.0%，核心通胀（Core CPI）同比增长3.8%。持续向好的经济数据和高通胀下，6月份美联储货币政策会议仍然维持零利率，每月购债规模维持不变。那么美联储为什么还犹豫不决？\n笔者觉得其实有几个方面去分析，第一个可能是政治层面，第二个可能是经济层面。但是政治层面比较复杂，涉及民主党和共和党的党派之争、连任问题，这里不做过多说明。\n从经济角度来看，美联储的货币政策目标有两个：就业和通胀。在不同时期美联储盯住的货币政策目标大致相同，但同时也会考虑就业和通胀之外的其他经济因素。\n第一，美联储的通胀目标设定为2%，5月份核心CPE同比增长3.9%，即便考虑2020年的基期效应（如果观察2020年3-5月的通胀环比来看，5月高通胀的基期效应导致高通胀的贡献大约1.1%），5月通胀同比可能达到3.9%（5.0%-1.1%）。因此，从当前的通胀同比数据完全可以符合美联储做出收紧的动作。那么未来的通胀是否会见顶回落，以及2021年下半年美国是否还面临高通胀？\n相对于通胀同比数据而言，通胀环比数据也十分重要，且可以通过通胀环比数据对未来半年的通胀进行预测，作者通过两种情景假设进行预测：\n即使，假设从6月份到今年年底，当前终端消费品的价格指数保持不变（也即是假设通胀环比增长为0），预测今年12月的通胀同比大约2.9%~3.0%，这相对于通胀目标2%的水平来看，其实也是相对蛮高水平。所以，基于上述的假设，2021年下半年仍然会是较高的通胀水平。\n情景2：假设今年下半年的通胀环比增长按照平均0.3%来预测，今年年底通胀同比增长速度仍然高达5.0%。从这个预测来看，今年下半年通胀应该很难说快速回落。应该来说，下半年美国还是有比较大的通胀压力。\n当然也不排除今年下半年因为种种原因，例如疫苗接种情况不良好，疫情再次爆发导致全球经济衰退，这种情况下通胀数据也可能快速回落。否则，2021年下半年通胀压力还是存在的。基于上述假设的通胀预测，其实通胀已经符合美联储的加息条件。\n第二，笔者来看美联储犹豫的关键原因还是就业数据恢复不达预期。2020年3月份受到疫情影响，美国失业率最高接近15%，6月失业率仍然是5.9%，小幅高于5月的5.8%，市场预期5.6%。从今年年初以来，失业率稳步下降。当前的失业率5.9%其实还是高于美联储的自然失业率水平。失业率仍然较高是阻止当前美联储快速收紧货币政策的一个重要因素。7月1日当周，首次申请失业金人数为36.4万人，前值37.5万人，预期值41.1万人，这距离疫情前的平均水平20万人次还有一定距离。\n因此，虽然经济数据和通胀高企，但美联储仍然对收紧货币政策犹豫不决主要还是因为就业恢复还有差距。美联储的下一步如何走？\n第一，通胀并非美联储下一步的关键因素。5月PCE和核心PCE为3.9%和3.4%。从笔者上述的预测来看，2021年下半年整体平均通胀不会低于3.0%，2022年通胀CPI预计可能还是高于2.0%。预计2021年和2022年的核心PCE平均值仍然可能高于2%。因此，从通胀预期来看，虽然2021年2季度是美国通胀的阶段性高点，但随着经济修复和大宗商品价格上涨，未来美国通胀应该较难在短时间快速下行到2%以下。因此通胀并非是阻止美联储收紧货币政策的关键因素。\n第二，美联储下一步关键考察就业市场的恢复程度。7月2日公布的6月份非农就业数据新增为85万人次，较上期55.9万人次大幅上升。但6月份的失业率仍然为5.9%，较5月份的5.8%小幅上升。当前失业率仍然较美联储的目标率有较大差距。下一步美联储是否快速收紧货币政策，关键着力点还是看美国经济持续修复下是否能补齐因为疫情导致的失业缺口人数。\n第三，美联储大概率会边际收紧货币政策，且应该先Taper后加息。6月份的议息会议（Fomc Meeting）虽然维持货币政策利率和每月购债规模不变。但其实已经较为明显提前引导市场可能边际收紧货币政策，根据美联储的点阵图来看，加息时间点比上次议息会议前移，且美联储在会议上提高了隔夜逆回购利率。那么，美联储下一步是先加息还是先Taper，笔者认为根据以往经验来看，美联储应该是先Taper后加息，主要有几个考虑因素：\n（1）从历史经验来看，美联储是先Taper再加息。回顾美联储过去百年的货币政策的施政经验来看，美联储的货币政策历史上经历过二战的非独立货币政策，也从之前的数量调控为主逐步转向了价格调控。“大缓和”时期，美联储发展为更多依赖于价格的调控手段（以泰勒规则来调节短期利率），数量调控本身是较早的历史工具。2008年美国次贷危机之后，美联储因为受到货币政策利率不能低于零，同时又希望加大对金融危机期间的拯救措施，采取了非常规的量化宽松，本轮疫情影响下的美联储扩表整体也是部分受到了零利率的限制。因此符合情况下，美联储理应退出量化宽松工具，更多依赖价格调控。最近一次经验来看，美联储在2013年选择先Taper，然后2015年12月才首次加息。\n（2）美联储近期隔夜逆回购逼近万亿规模说明美元货币环境极度宽松，极度宽松美元环境滋生资产价格泡沫。即资金可能并非能够有效地传导到实体企业，而更多流入金融市场或者具有金融属性的领域，造成资产价格暴涨行情。例如近期的原油价格行情、大宗商品和美国房地产价格行情。6月29日发布的数据显示，美国4月标普CoreLogic凯斯-席勒房地产价值指数同比上涨14.6%，创下1988年以来的最大涨幅。因此，在保证经济增长的前提下，美联储减少资产购规模回笼市场上多余美元资金则顺理成章。\n（3）美联储的下一步货币政策可能还需要结合美国财政政策的实况。受到疫情影响，美国2021-2022年财政赤字不断增加，6月份美国财政部表示，财政年度的前8个月里，联邦财政收入增长了29%，达到创纪录的2.6万亿美元。支出增长了20%，达到创纪录的4.7万亿美元，其中主要为失业救济、营养援助和新冠肺炎救援项目，美国财政赤字在本财年的前8个月增长至创纪录的2.1万亿美元。其次，拜登推动在基础设施、清洁能源、教育和其他项目上拟增加数万亿美元新支出，预计2022财年赤字将达到1.84万亿美元，公众持有的债务水平将超过二战后的水平。货币政策利率在疫情完全修复前保持较低利率，更有利于积极财政政策实施。\n综上，笔者仍然认为如果美国经济逐步走出泥潭并保持快速修复，美联储下一步可能在2021年底-2022年边际收紧货币政策，且缩减购债规模（Taper）快于加息。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2837,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153997516,"gmtCreate":1625002224835,"gmtModify":1703849723282,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9b8f75db4c14f22597f42cb3752e117","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584066196704033","authorIdStr":"3584066196704033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153997516","repostId":"1137606203","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137606203","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624979680,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137606203?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-29 23:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"[Change] AMD rose by more than 3%, and the acquisition of Xilinx was approved by antitrust agencies","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137606203","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月29日，AMD盘中涨超3%，据英国竞争和市场管理局官网消息，AMD 350亿美元收购赛灵思的计划已经得到了批准。","content":"<p>On June 29th, AMD rose by more than 3%. According to the official website of the British Competition and Market Authority, AMD's plan to acquire Xilinx for $35 billion has been approved.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/049d5db8c8d130133e9ae5d4afaa67a9\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>[Change] AMD rose by more than 3%, and the acquisition of Xilinx was approved by antitrust agencies</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n[Change] AMD rose by more than 3%, and the acquisition of Xilinx was approved by antitrust agencies\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-29 23:14</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 29th, AMD rose by more than 3%. According to the official website of the British Competition and Market Authority, AMD's plan to acquire Xilinx for $35 billion has been approved.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/049d5db8c8d130133e9ae5d4afaa67a9\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a593d85be38c3aa543ab3056553101ff","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137606203","content_text":"6月29日，AMD盘中涨超3%，据英国竞争和市场管理局官网消息，AMD 350亿美元收购赛灵思的计划已经得到了批准。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120492077,"gmtCreate":1624330821599,"gmtModify":1703833700900,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9b8f75db4c14f22597f42cb3752e117","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584066196704033","authorIdStr":"3584066196704033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120492077","repostId":"1128496063","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":615,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169108569,"gmtCreate":1623819642651,"gmtModify":1703820477366,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9b8f75db4c14f22597f42cb3752e117","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584066196704033","authorIdStr":"3584066196704033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow。。。。","listText":"wow。。。。","text":"wow。。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169108569","repostId":"1118620406","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":828,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184579764,"gmtCreate":1623720143258,"gmtModify":1704209463299,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9b8f75db4c14f22597f42cb3752e117","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584066196704033","authorIdStr":"3584066196704033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184579764","repostId":"1132976562","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":680,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157897342,"gmtCreate":1625576824586,"gmtModify":1703744108770,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9b8f75db4c14f22597f42cb3752e117","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584066196704033","authorIdStr":"3584066196704033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/157897342","repostId":"1157219821","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157219821","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625560252,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157219821?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-06 16:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Chuan Merger Plan was blocked, Betta, Huya fell before the market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157219821","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周二，斗鱼盘前跌超10%，虎牙盘前现跌1.64%，此前消息称中国反垄断监管机构正式阻止腾讯合并国内两大直播平台虎牙和斗鱼的计划。","content":"<p>On Tuesday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Betta fish</a>It fell more than 10% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">Tiger tooth</a>Now down 1.64% premarket after news that China's antitrust regulator officially blocked<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>The plan to merge Huya and Douyu, two major live broadcast platforms in China.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chuan Merger Plan was blocked, Betta, Huya fell before the market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChuan Merger Plan was blocked, Betta, Huya fell before the market\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-06 16:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Tuesday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Betta fish</a>It fell more than 10% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">Tiger tooth</a>Now down 1.64% premarket after news that China's antitrust regulator officially blocked<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>The plan to merge Huya and Douyu, two major live broadcast platforms in China.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af724efafb5788a889a167ca9c1dc5c","relate_stocks":{"HUYA":"虎牙","DOYU":"斗鱼"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157219821","content_text":"周二，斗鱼盘前跌超10%，虎牙盘前现跌1.64%，此前消息称中国反垄断监管机构正式阻止腾讯合并国内两大直播平台虎牙和斗鱼的计划。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HUYA":0.9,"DOYU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2467,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}