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Hang Seng Technology VS GEM, who do you bet on?
OngSeahKuang
2021-07-25
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","listText":"Good ","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/177043262","repostId":"2153981305","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2153981305","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1627053242,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2153981305?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-23 23:14","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Hang Seng Technology VS GEM, who do you bet on?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153981305","media":"格隆汇","summary":"脱虚向实","content":"<p>When it comes to the development direction of China's economy, it is estimated that even aunt can read two sentences: take the road of scientific and technological innovation and high-quality development.</p><p>Indeed, today, when the real estate engine stops, if you don't want to grow in scientific and technological innovation, there is basically no place to ask for it. This has been verified countless times in the history of world economic development in the past 100 years.</p><p><b>Investment is about following the direction of the surging tide, and technology stocks are in this direction. At present, waves of technology stocks are hot and hot.</b>However, the GEM and Hong Kong stocks, which are recognized as expected to become the Chinese version of Nasdaq, have diverged.</p><p>Which is the real main battlefield of Chinese technology stocks? Which one should we focus on in the future?</p><p><h3>1</h3><h3><b>differentiation</b></h3>GEM and Hong Kong stocks, both<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YJ\">gather</a>The top high-tech company in China,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300760\">Mindray Medical</a>......</p><p>In the past, Hong Kong stocks, where the Internet gathered, were obviously superior and the focus of the spotlight, while the GEM was relatively dim. However, in the past six months, the situation has reversed dramatically, as can be seen from the trends of the two most representative indices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9a943eef0ce5cc99ab970f8ad332faa\" tg-width=\"1001\" tg-height=\"583\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>The Hang Seng Technology Index recently closed at 7,268 points, which is only about 7% from the water level when it was first launched in July last year. After more than a year of ups and downs, the highlight moment reached 11,000 points. Looking at it now, it always feels like dust returns to dust.</p><p>On the other hand, the GEM index, although it also experienced a soaring rise in the second half of last year and a big correction in February, has now gone out of a rather awesome market, constantly breaking its position and hitting a new high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b9eda64cf7fc8e2eb004f2b0ca7d0a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Behind this, the market likes the new and hates the old for the technology sector, which can be seen at a glance from the constituent stocks.</p><p>Among the 30 constituent stocks of Hang Seng Technology Index, Internet companies account for 60% in number and 68% in weight. Among the top ten weights, Internet companies account for 8 seats. It can be said that Hang Seng Technology Index is equivalent to China's Internet listed company index.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0df5bda2d6ae98f25103bd7f5647c1b8\" tg-width=\"848\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Among the 100 constituent stocks of the GEM index, only 4 companies belong to Internet media, and a total of 72 companies belong to the manufacturing industry. Among the top 10 weights, 7 companies belong to high-tech manufacturing industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9055b3f76f262dc257754ec9c2cd494d\" tg-width=\"851\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>The constituent stocks of the two indexes basically represent the focus of the two markets. The technology stocks of Hong Kong stocks are mainly based on the Internet virtual economy, commonly known as<b>\"Soft Tech\"</b>While the GEM is dominated by entity manufacturing, commonly known as<b>\"Hard Tech\".</b></p><p>The main reason why the Hang Seng Technology Index plummeted is that the Internet suffered antitrust this year, especially several leaders, fined and terminated M&A projects, Tencent, Ali, Meituan,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>And so on, the stock price has been corrected by nearly 30% from a high level, becoming the \"culprit\" that drags down the index.</p><p>On the other hand, on the GEM, these manufacturing companies are shining brightly. With the popularity of new energy vehicles, the share price of the leading Ningde era has risen by nearly 30% compared with the high level in February, becoming the hero of driving the rising index.</p><p><b>In the past, the manufacturing industry was often not viewed by capital, with large investment, heavy assets, high cost, long industrial chain and difficult security control, and the light Internet economy was the favorite of capital.</b></p><p><b>Now, the situation has just reversed. On the surface, it is the Internet anti-monopoly and the lithium battery sector with funds, but looking deeper, it also indicates that the economic growth engine is undergoing drastic changes.</b></p><p><h3>2</h3><h3><b>This time, is it really going from the virtual to the real?</b></h3>In the past few years, it is a national propaganda slogan that we often hear, but what we actually see is often loud thunder but little rain.</p><p>In the past 10 years, the engine of China's economic growth is real estate and mobile Internet. Although real estate has industrial attributes, housing prices have continued to hit the sky.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Ordinary people</a>More willing to emphasize its financial attributes, the virtual nature of mobile Internet is stronger.</p><p>Of course, it must also be admitted that it is normal to rely on real estate at a certain stage of economic development, and everyone can feel the economic growth led by the information technology revolution. In addition, these two industries are huge enough, and their power is enough to last for 10-20 years. Therefore, when the engine is still powered, it is not only inconsistent with the economic law to rush to stall the flame, but also there is no industry that can take over the stick after stopping the flame, which may lead the whole country into a pit.</p><p>Not only China, but if you look at the global macro for a long time, you will find that in the past 30-40 years, most developed countries in the world have caught the bad habit of playing virtual economy, and none more than the United States has gone too far.</p><p>The reason is that after President Reagan took office in 1981, he carried out financial liberalization. First, he abolished the financial restriction bill made during the Great Depression, and then through a series of means such as deregulation, tax reduction and supply-side reform, the American economy successfully got out of stagflation and restored its vitality, indirectly buried the Soviet Union, ended the Cold War, defeated Japan economically, and brought mankind into the great era of computers and the Internet.</p><p><b>But finance has always been half an angel and half a devil.</b>In the first half, the United States played very smoothly. It was the age of angels, but it also formed path dependence. In the second half, financial liberalization became a wild horse, constantly squeezing the industrial space. Finally, it stumbled in real estate and brought the whole world down. It was a proper devil's era.</p><p>Therefore, after 2008, Obama proposed the return of manufacturing, and Trump moved the overseas bases of American enterprises back to the United States with both soft and hard tactics. To Biden, chip factories, new energy plants and huge infrastructure plans were built, all of which were 100% real economies.</p><p>You can say that Americans have conducted a deep review and reflection, but the fact is that by this stage of history, the economic cycle is also entering a virtual-real transition range.</p><p>Looking back at the century-old American economy, at the end of the 19th and early 20th centuries, the industrial explosion, electrification and industrialization pushed the United States to the first place in the world economy. Then, the economy began to move from reality to virtuality, playing high in finance, and the stock market collapsed at the end of 1920. In the following decades, the United States began to do infrastructure, manufacturing, R&D, and move from virtuality to reality; However, by the end of 1970s, it began to move from reality to virtuality, until the financial crisis in 2008.</p><p>Calculated down, time also just responds to the old Chinese saying: 30 years to the east of Hedong, 30 years to the west of Hexi. Heavenly Dao reincarnation, cycles change, and today's opportunity to trigger this change is<b>The New Energy Revolution.</b>And information technology in a string of \"0101010\" codes in the virtual world<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CYOU\">swimming</a>In contrast, the energy industry can be said to be a real real economy, which happens not only in the United States but also in China.</p><p>There is no doubt that the big era when the economy once again shifts from virtual to real is coming step by step.</p><p><h3>3</h3><h3><b>Investment: Virtual down, industrial up</b></h3>Speaking back to investment, what are some good strategies to adapt to this big era?</p><p>In fact, the capital market has already given the answer.</p><p>Now the hottest sector is no other than new energy, lithium battery, photovoltaic, Ningde era,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002460\">Ganfeng Lithium</a>Weather Lithium Industry,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601012\">LONGi</a>, the stock price is not the highest, only higher, which also makes many bears dumbfounded, scratching their heads for a long time. Why do people jump into it when it is so high?</p><p>On the other hand, the former Internet star stocks have fallen one after another. Look at the increasing and decreasing actions of large institutions, and they are very honest.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ed0cbdaa2d1ccee11525ed7491a7e0f\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Therefore, under the background of moving from virtual to real, the investment value of the real economy in the future will become more and more prominent.</b></p><p>Of course, not all real economies are touched by rain and dew. In fact, all kinds of \"Mao\" that have been blown into the sky in the past few years have basically fallen. Few food, beverages and core assets are spared, and the speed of capital running is faster than the fall of stock price.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1939dca71ffedd1ebb2395eba46e501\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"1785\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Why?</p><p><b>The industries that are most likely to attract capital are those with huge room for future growth and high certainty.</b>There is no doubt that new energy is in this area. The self-help of all mankind, the boost of global policies, and the broad room for growth. On the other hand, all kinds of traditional \"Mao\" represent either the old economy or industries that are saturated and have weak growth. These industries obviously can't be compared with new energy, and it is even more reasonable to be beaten.</p><p>In fact, the brilliance of all kinds of \"Mao\" in the past four years has its objective existence, but on the other hand, it also shows that there are no industries that can represent the future trend, or these industries have not really broken out. Therefore, when the funds are not effective in small and medium-sized tickets, they can only seek certainty in traditional industries. As a result of the gathering of funds, the traditional \"Mao\" valuation can be easily raised, and the expected performance growth rate of 10% can also be given a valuation of 30 times, 40 times or even higher.</p><p>Now, funds are leaving the traditional \"Mao\" step by step. Except that these \"Mao\" themselves can't match the valuation in performance growth, more importantly, the funds have found \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000997\">New World</a>\"- -New energy. How hot the new energy is, how lonely the traditional \"Mao\" will be.</p><p>Although new energy has been speculated to a very high level, it is still difficult to say that the power is exhausted in terms of capital, flow and stock price performance. Another reason is that the domestic short-selling mechanism is not perfect, which leads to a strong unilateral market. No one knows whether the sky can be created again in the future, because empty singers are constantly beaten in the face, so instead of predicting the follow-up trend, it is better to look at the cost of your position. If it is very low, you can continue to enjoy a bubble time.</p><p><h3>4</h3><h3><b>epilogue</b></h3>In the past, there was a popular paragraph in the capital market:<b>America's strength depends on high technology, and our strength depends on drinking liquor and selling soy sauce.</b></p><p>Although this is a joke, it also reflects the embarrassment of domestic technology stocks. Cow's technology companies are clustered in virtual economies such as the Internet. When these companies are established, they often take money from foreigners. All kinds of VIE structures, British Virgin and Bermuda are dazzling. Due to the restrictions of domestic listing system, it is decided that they can only seek overseas listing. Domestic investors have to take a \"nine twists and eighteen bends\" if they want to share the company's business results.</p><p>However, the manufacturing industry favored by domestic listing is difficult to match the Internet in terms of profit-making effect. The GEM, known as the Chinese version of Nasdaq, has only one word \"say\" most of the time.</p><p>However, in the big era of moving from virtual to real, the GEM is also ushering in its own era. Although there is still a gap between GEM and Hong Kong stocks in terms of system and capital control, the industrial advantages of GEM are also being released step by step.</p><p>On the contrary, Hong Kong stock technology companies, especially Internet companies, are under pressure from the peak of traffic in their business and anti-monopoly in their policies. It is difficult to see hope of rebound in the short term, especially the performance forecast for the first half of the year released at present, which is generally not ideal. Therefore, when the answer sheets are submitted in August, the Hang Seng Technology Index may fall again.</p><p>The loneliness of the Hang Seng Technology Index and the high pitch of the Growth Enterprise Market are still the norm in the second half of the year or even longer.</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hang Seng Technology VS GEM, who do you bet on?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHang Seng Technology VS GEM, who do you bet on?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-23 23:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>When it comes to the development direction of China's economy, it is estimated that even aunt can read two sentences: take the road of scientific and technological innovation and high-quality development.</p><p>Indeed, today, when the real estate engine stops, if you don't want to grow in scientific and technological innovation, there is basically no place to ask for it. This has been verified countless times in the history of world economic development in the past 100 years.</p><p><b>Investment is about following the direction of the surging tide, and technology stocks are in this direction. At present, waves of technology stocks are hot and hot.</b>However, the GEM and Hong Kong stocks, which are recognized as expected to become the Chinese version of Nasdaq, have diverged.</p><p>Which is the real main battlefield of Chinese technology stocks? Which one should we focus on in the future?</p><p><h3>1</h3><h3><b>differentiation</b></h3>GEM and Hong Kong stocks, both<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YJ\">gather</a>The top high-tech company in China,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300760\">Mindray Medical</a>......</p><p>In the past, Hong Kong stocks, where the Internet gathered, were obviously superior and the focus of the spotlight, while the GEM was relatively dim. However, in the past six months, the situation has reversed dramatically, as can be seen from the trends of the two most representative indices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9a943eef0ce5cc99ab970f8ad332faa\" tg-width=\"1001\" tg-height=\"583\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>The Hang Seng Technology Index recently closed at 7,268 points, which is only about 7% from the water level when it was first launched in July last year. After more than a year of ups and downs, the highlight moment reached 11,000 points. Looking at it now, it always feels like dust returns to dust.</p><p>On the other hand, the GEM index, although it also experienced a soaring rise in the second half of last year and a big correction in February, has now gone out of a rather awesome market, constantly breaking its position and hitting a new high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b9eda64cf7fc8e2eb004f2b0ca7d0a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Behind this, the market likes the new and hates the old for the technology sector, which can be seen at a glance from the constituent stocks.</p><p>Among the 30 constituent stocks of Hang Seng Technology Index, Internet companies account for 60% in number and 68% in weight. Among the top ten weights, Internet companies account for 8 seats. It can be said that Hang Seng Technology Index is equivalent to China's Internet listed company index.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0df5bda2d6ae98f25103bd7f5647c1b8\" tg-width=\"848\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Among the 100 constituent stocks of the GEM index, only 4 companies belong to Internet media, and a total of 72 companies belong to the manufacturing industry. Among the top 10 weights, 7 companies belong to high-tech manufacturing industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9055b3f76f262dc257754ec9c2cd494d\" tg-width=\"851\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>The constituent stocks of the two indexes basically represent the focus of the two markets. The technology stocks of Hong Kong stocks are mainly based on the Internet virtual economy, commonly known as<b>\"Soft Tech\"</b>While the GEM is dominated by entity manufacturing, commonly known as<b>\"Hard Tech\".</b></p><p>The main reason why the Hang Seng Technology Index plummeted is that the Internet suffered antitrust this year, especially several leaders, fined and terminated M&A projects, Tencent, Ali, Meituan,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>And so on, the stock price has been corrected by nearly 30% from a high level, becoming the \"culprit\" that drags down the index.</p><p>On the other hand, on the GEM, these manufacturing companies are shining brightly. With the popularity of new energy vehicles, the share price of the leading Ningde era has risen by nearly 30% compared with the high level in February, becoming the hero of driving the rising index.</p><p><b>In the past, the manufacturing industry was often not viewed by capital, with large investment, heavy assets, high cost, long industrial chain and difficult security control, and the light Internet economy was the favorite of capital.</b></p><p><b>Now, the situation has just reversed. On the surface, it is the Internet anti-monopoly and the lithium battery sector with funds, but looking deeper, it also indicates that the economic growth engine is undergoing drastic changes.</b></p><p><h3>2</h3><h3><b>This time, is it really going from the virtual to the real?</b></h3>In the past few years, it is a national propaganda slogan that we often hear, but what we actually see is often loud thunder but little rain.</p><p>In the past 10 years, the engine of China's economic growth is real estate and mobile Internet. Although real estate has industrial attributes, housing prices have continued to hit the sky.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Ordinary people</a>More willing to emphasize its financial attributes, the virtual nature of mobile Internet is stronger.</p><p>Of course, it must also be admitted that it is normal to rely on real estate at a certain stage of economic development, and everyone can feel the economic growth led by the information technology revolution. In addition, these two industries are huge enough, and their power is enough to last for 10-20 years. Therefore, when the engine is still powered, it is not only inconsistent with the economic law to rush to stall the flame, but also there is no industry that can take over the stick after stopping the flame, which may lead the whole country into a pit.</p><p>Not only China, but if you look at the global macro for a long time, you will find that in the past 30-40 years, most developed countries in the world have caught the bad habit of playing virtual economy, and none more than the United States has gone too far.</p><p>The reason is that after President Reagan took office in 1981, he carried out financial liberalization. First, he abolished the financial restriction bill made during the Great Depression, and then through a series of means such as deregulation, tax reduction and supply-side reform, the American economy successfully got out of stagflation and restored its vitality, indirectly buried the Soviet Union, ended the Cold War, defeated Japan economically, and brought mankind into the great era of computers and the Internet.</p><p><b>But finance has always been half an angel and half a devil.</b>In the first half, the United States played very smoothly. It was the age of angels, but it also formed path dependence. In the second half, financial liberalization became a wild horse, constantly squeezing the industrial space. Finally, it stumbled in real estate and brought the whole world down. It was a proper devil's era.</p><p>Therefore, after 2008, Obama proposed the return of manufacturing, and Trump moved the overseas bases of American enterprises back to the United States with both soft and hard tactics. To Biden, chip factories, new energy plants and huge infrastructure plans were built, all of which were 100% real economies.</p><p>You can say that Americans have conducted a deep review and reflection, but the fact is that by this stage of history, the economic cycle is also entering a virtual-real transition range.</p><p>Looking back at the century-old American economy, at the end of the 19th and early 20th centuries, the industrial explosion, electrification and industrialization pushed the United States to the first place in the world economy. Then, the economy began to move from reality to virtuality, playing high in finance, and the stock market collapsed at the end of 1920. In the following decades, the United States began to do infrastructure, manufacturing, R&D, and move from virtuality to reality; However, by the end of 1970s, it began to move from reality to virtuality, until the financial crisis in 2008.</p><p>Calculated down, time also just responds to the old Chinese saying: 30 years to the east of Hedong, 30 years to the west of Hexi. Heavenly Dao reincarnation, cycles change, and today's opportunity to trigger this change is<b>The New Energy Revolution.</b>And information technology in a string of \"0101010\" codes in the virtual world<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CYOU\">swimming</a>In contrast, the energy industry can be said to be a real real economy, which happens not only in the United States but also in China.</p><p>There is no doubt that the big era when the economy once again shifts from virtual to real is coming step by step.</p><p><h3>3</h3><h3><b>Investment: Virtual down, industrial up</b></h3>Speaking back to investment, what are some good strategies to adapt to this big era?</p><p>In fact, the capital market has already given the answer.</p><p>Now the hottest sector is no other than new energy, lithium battery, photovoltaic, Ningde era,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002460\">Ganfeng Lithium</a>Weather Lithium Industry,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601012\">LONGi</a>, the stock price is not the highest, only higher, which also makes many bears dumbfounded, scratching their heads for a long time. Why do people jump into it when it is so high?</p><p>On the other hand, the former Internet star stocks have fallen one after another. Look at the increasing and decreasing actions of large institutions, and they are very honest.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ed0cbdaa2d1ccee11525ed7491a7e0f\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Therefore, under the background of moving from virtual to real, the investment value of the real economy in the future will become more and more prominent.</b></p><p>Of course, not all real economies are touched by rain and dew. In fact, all kinds of \"Mao\" that have been blown into the sky in the past few years have basically fallen. Few food, beverages and core assets are spared, and the speed of capital running is faster than the fall of stock price.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1939dca71ffedd1ebb2395eba46e501\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"1785\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Why?</p><p><b>The industries that are most likely to attract capital are those with huge room for future growth and high certainty.</b>There is no doubt that new energy is in this area. The self-help of all mankind, the boost of global policies, and the broad room for growth. On the other hand, all kinds of traditional \"Mao\" represent either the old economy or industries that are saturated and have weak growth. These industries obviously can't be compared with new energy, and it is even more reasonable to be beaten.</p><p>In fact, the brilliance of all kinds of \"Mao\" in the past four years has its objective existence, but on the other hand, it also shows that there are no industries that can represent the future trend, or these industries have not really broken out. Therefore, when the funds are not effective in small and medium-sized tickets, they can only seek certainty in traditional industries. As a result of the gathering of funds, the traditional \"Mao\" valuation can be easily raised, and the expected performance growth rate of 10% can also be given a valuation of 30 times, 40 times or even higher.</p><p>Now, funds are leaving the traditional \"Mao\" step by step. Except that these \"Mao\" themselves can't match the valuation in performance growth, more importantly, the funds have found \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000997\">New World</a>\"- -New energy. How hot the new energy is, how lonely the traditional \"Mao\" will be.</p><p>Although new energy has been speculated to a very high level, it is still difficult to say that the power is exhausted in terms of capital, flow and stock price performance. Another reason is that the domestic short-selling mechanism is not perfect, which leads to a strong unilateral market. No one knows whether the sky can be created again in the future, because empty singers are constantly beaten in the face, so instead of predicting the follow-up trend, it is better to look at the cost of your position. If it is very low, you can continue to enjoy a bubble time.</p><p><h3>4</h3><h3><b>epilogue</b></h3>In the past, there was a popular paragraph in the capital market:<b>America's strength depends on high technology, and our strength depends on drinking liquor and selling soy sauce.</b></p><p>Although this is a joke, it also reflects the embarrassment of domestic technology stocks. Cow's technology companies are clustered in virtual economies such as the Internet. When these companies are established, they often take money from foreigners. All kinds of VIE structures, British Virgin and Bermuda are dazzling. Due to the restrictions of domestic listing system, it is decided that they can only seek overseas listing. Domestic investors have to take a \"nine twists and eighteen bends\" if they want to share the company's business results.</p><p>However, the manufacturing industry favored by domestic listing is difficult to match the Internet in terms of profit-making effect. The GEM, known as the Chinese version of Nasdaq, has only one word \"say\" most of the time.</p><p>However, in the big era of moving from virtual to real, the GEM is also ushering in its own era. Although there is still a gap between GEM and Hong Kong stocks in terms of system and capital control, the industrial advantages of GEM are also being released step by step.</p><p>On the contrary, Hong Kong stock technology companies, especially Internet companies, are under pressure from the peak of traffic in their business and anti-monopoly in their policies. It is difficult to see hope of rebound in the short term, especially the performance forecast for the first half of the year released at present, which is generally not ideal. Therefore, when the answer sheets are submitted in August, the Hang Seng Technology Index may fall again.</p><p>The loneliness of the Hang Seng Technology Index and the high pitch of the Growth Enterprise Market are still the norm in the second half of the year or even longer.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/477262\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de0bbe341ac5d74e1a8d74c9ca5de715","relate_stocks":{"159740":"恒生科技","159915":"创业板","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/477262","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2153981305","content_text":"要说中国经济的发展方向，估计连大妈都能念上两句：走科技创新之路，走高质量发展之路。\n的确，在房地产引擎熄火的今天，不往科技创新要增长，基本也就没有地方要了，这在过去百年世界经济发展史上已经被验证过无数次。\n投资讲求的是顺着潮水涌动的方向，科技股正是这个方向，眼下一波又一波的科技股浪潮，热的发烫。但是，公认的有望成为中国版纳斯达克的创业板和港股，行情却出现分化。\n到底哪一个才是真正的中国科技股主战场？未来又应该着重布局哪一个？\n1\n分化\n创业板和港股，都云集了国内最顶尖的高科技公司，腾讯、阿里巴巴、百度、宁德时代、迈瑞医疗......\n如果放在以前，互联网扎堆的港股明显更胜一筹，是聚光灯的焦点，创业板则相对暗淡。但最近这半年，情况发生大逆转，从两个最具代表性的指数的走势便可见一斑。\n\n恒生科技指数最新收报7268点，距离去年7月份刚推出时的水位，只有7%左右，一年多的大起大落，高光时刻去到11000点，现在再看，总有点尘归尘土归土的感觉。\n反观创业板指数，尽管同样经历去年下半年的疯涨和2月份的大回调，但现在已经走出了相当牛逼的行情，不断破位，创出新高。\n\n这背后，是市场对科技板块的喜新厌旧，从成分股中便一览无遗。\n恒生科技指数的30个成分股中，数量上互联网公司占到60%，权重占到68%，前十大权重中，互联网公司占了8席，可以说，恒生科技指数等同于中国的互联网上市公司指数。\n\n而创业板指数的100家成分股，归属互联网传媒的公司只有4家，属于制造业的一共72家，前10大权重中，有7家属于高科技术制造业。\n\n两大指数的成分股基本代表了两个市场的重点所在，港股的科技股是互联网虚拟经济为主，俗称“软科技”，而创业板则是实体制造业为主，俗称“硬科技”。\n而恒生科技指数之所以暴跌，主要原因就是互联网今年遭遇反垄断，尤其是几大龙头，罚款、终止并购项目，腾讯、阿里、美团、京东等，股价都高位回调近3成，成为拖累指数的“元凶”。\n反观创业板，这些制造业公司则大放异彩，新能源汽车的火热，龙头宁德时代的股价比2月的高位还涨了近30%，成为推动指数不断上涨的功臣。\n过去，制造业往往不受资本待见，投入大、重资产、成本高、产业链过长且安全性不好控制，而轻盈的互联网经济才是资本的最爱。\n现在，形势正好反转过来，表面看，是互联网反垄断，是资金抱团锂电板块，但往深的看，这也预示着经济增长引擎正在发生剧变。\n2\n这回，是真的脱虚向实？\n脱虚向实，是过去几年经常听到的国家宣传标语，但实际看到的，往往雷声大雨点小。\n事关过去10年，中国的经济增长引擎，是房地产和移动互联网，房地产虽然有实业的属性，但房价不断创出天际，老百姓更愿意强调它的金融属性，移动互联网的虚拟性就更强了。\n当然，也必须承认，在经济发展到某个阶段，依赖地产很正常，而信息技术革命引领下的经济增长，大家也都能感受得到。加上这两个产业足够庞大，动力足以维持10-20年，所以，在引擎还有动力的时候，贸贸然掐熄火，不仅不符合经济规律，而且熄火后没有能接过棒的产业，搞不好会把整个国家带坑里头。\n不单单是中国，如果拉长时间看全球宏观，你会发现，过去30-40年时间里，全世界大多数的发达国家，都染上了玩虚拟经济的恶习，玩得最过火的莫过于美国。\n原因在于，1981年里根总统上台后，推行金融自由化，先是废除了“大萧条”时期定下的金融限制法案，然后通过放松管制、减税、供给侧改革等一系列手段，让美国经济成功走出滞胀，恢复活力，并间接埋葬苏联、结束冷战，在经济上战胜日本，并把人类带入了伟大的计算机和互联网时代。\n但是金融这个东西，从来都是一半天使，一半魔鬼。前半段，美国玩得非常溜，那是天使时代，但是也形成了路径依赖。以至后半段，金融自由化变成了脱缰的野马，不断地挤压实业的空间，最后在房地产上栽了跟头，并带崩了全世界，是妥妥的魔鬼时代。\n所以08年后，奥巴马提出制造业回归，特朗普软硬兼施要把美国企业的海外基地搬回美国，到拜登，芯片厂要建、新能源厂要建，还有庞大的基建计划，这些都是百分百的实体经济。\n你可以说美国人进行了深刻的检讨和反思，但事实是，到这个历史阶段，经济周期也正进入虚实转换区间。\n回看百年的美国经济，19世纪末20世纪初，实业大爆发，电气化、工业化，把美国推到世界经济第一。然后，经济开始脱实向虚，玩金融玩得high，1920年末股市崩盘，之后的几十年，美国开始做基建，做制造业，做研发，脱虚向实；但到1970年代末，又开始脱实向虚，直到08年金融危机。\n算下来，时间也正好应了中国那句老话：30年河东，30年河西。天道轮回，周期更替，而今天引发这个更替的契机，是新的能源革命。和信息技术在一串串“0101010”代码的虚拟世界畅游相比，能源产业可以说是实打实的实体经济，这不仅发生在美国，也发生在中国。\n经济再一次脱虚向实的大时代，毫无疑问正一步步走来。\n3\n投资：虚拟向下，实业向上\n说回投资，到底有什么好的策略去适应这个大时代？\n其实，资本市场已经给出了答案。\n现在最火的板块，非新能源莫属，锂电池、光伏，宁德时代、赣锋锂业、天气锂业、隆基股份，股价没有最高，只有更高，这也令很多看空者傻了眼，半天摸不着头脑，这么高为何还有人往里面跳？\n可另一面，昔日的互联网明星股，陆陆续续陷落。再看看大机构的增减持动作，实诚得很。\n\n所以，在脱虚向实的大背景下，未来实体经济的投资价值，会越来越凸显。\n当然，并非所有的实体经济都雨露均沾，事实上，过去几年被吹上天的各种“茅”，基本都陷落了，食品饮料、核心资产，没有几个能幸免，资本的跑路速度，比股价的下跌还要快。\n\n为何？\n最容易吸引资本的产业，是未来增长空间巨大且确定性高的产业。新能源在这块毋庸置疑，全人类的自救、全球政策的助推、广阔的增长空间，反观各种传统“茅”，所代表的，不是旧经济，就是已经饱和，增长乏力的产业，这些产业显然无法和新能源相比，被吊打更是情理之中。\n其实，过去4年各种“茅”的辉煌，有其客观存在性，但另一面，也表明尚未出现非常能够代表未来趋势的产业，或者说这些产业还没真正爆发，所以资金在中小票忽悠不奏效的情况下，只能在传统产业中寻求确定性。资金扎堆的结果，就是传统“茅”估值很容易被抬升，10%的业绩增速预期，也可以给到30倍、40倍甚至更高的估值。\n现在，资金正在一步步离传统“茅”而去，除了这些“茅”本身在业绩增长匹配不上估值，更重要的，是资金们找到了“新大陆”--新能源。新能源有多火热，传统“茅”就会多落寞。\n新能源虽然已经被炒到很高，但从资金和流向和股价表现，动力仍难说枯竭，还有一个原因，就是国内的做空机制还不是很完善，导致了单边行情仍然强势。未来还能不能再创出天际，没人知道，因为唱空者不断被打脸，所以与其预测后续走势，不如看看自己的仓位成本，如果很低，大可以继续享受一段泡沫时光。\n4\n结语\n过去资本市场流行一个段子：美国的强大靠高科技，我们的强大靠喝白酒，卖酱油。\n这虽然是一句玩笑话，但也折射出国内科技股的尴尬，牛的科技企业都扎堆在互联网等虚拟经济，这些公司建立时常常拿了老外的钱，各种VIE结构、英属维尔京、百慕大，眼花缭乱，由于国内上市制度的限制，决定它们只能谋求海外上市，国内投资者要想分享公司经营成果，得绕上个“九曲十八弯”。\n而国内上市所青睐的制造业，在赚钱效应上又难以匹敌互联网，号称中国版纳斯达克的创业板，大部分时间都只得一个“说”字。\n不过，在脱虚向实的大时代，创业板也正迎来属于自己的时代。虽然制度上、资本管制上，创业板和港股仍然有差距，但创业板在产业上的优势也正一步步释放。\n反而是港股科技公司，尤其是互联网公司，业务上受压于流量见顶，政策上受压于反垄断，短期内还很难看得到反弹希望，尤其是目前释出的上半年业绩预测，普遍都不甚理想，所以，等到8月份集中交答卷的时候，恒生科技指数还有可能再来一轮下跌。\n恒生科技指数的落寞，和创业板的高亢，仍然是下半年甚至更长时间的常态。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159740":0.9,"159915":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4751,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177049949,"gmtCreate":1627171915281,"gmtModify":1703484927364,"author":{"id":"3582447232774198","authorId":"3582447232774198","name":"OngSeahKuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e816551cae0cc36e250c08c2029dd38c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582447232774198","authorIdStr":"3582447232774198"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/177049949","repostId":"1169383564","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":177043262,"gmtCreate":1627172004956,"gmtModify":1703484929966,"author":{"id":"3582447232774198","authorId":"3582447232774198","name":"OngSeahKuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e816551cae0cc36e250c08c20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","listText":"Good ","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/177043262","repostId":"2153981305","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2153981305","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1627053242,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2153981305?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-23 23:14","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Hang Seng Technology VS GEM, who do you bet on?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153981305","media":"格隆汇","summary":"脱虚向实","content":"<p>When it comes to the development direction of China's economy, it is estimated that even aunt can read two sentences: take the road of scientific and technological innovation and high-quality development.</p><p>Indeed, today, when the real estate engine stops, if you don't want to grow in scientific and technological innovation, there is basically no place to ask for it. This has been verified countless times in the history of world economic development in the past 100 years.</p><p><b>Investment is about following the direction of the surging tide, and technology stocks are in this direction. At present, waves of technology stocks are hot and hot.</b>However, the GEM and Hong Kong stocks, which are recognized as expected to become the Chinese version of Nasdaq, have diverged.</p><p>Which is the real main battlefield of Chinese technology stocks? Which one should we focus on in the future?</p><p><h3>1</h3><h3><b>differentiation</b></h3>GEM and Hong Kong stocks, both<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YJ\">gather</a>The top high-tech company in China,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300760\">Mindray Medical</a>......</p><p>In the past, Hong Kong stocks, where the Internet gathered, were obviously superior and the focus of the spotlight, while the GEM was relatively dim. However, in the past six months, the situation has reversed dramatically, as can be seen from the trends of the two most representative indices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9a943eef0ce5cc99ab970f8ad332faa\" tg-width=\"1001\" tg-height=\"583\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>The Hang Seng Technology Index recently closed at 7,268 points, which is only about 7% from the water level when it was first launched in July last year. After more than a year of ups and downs, the highlight moment reached 11,000 points. Looking at it now, it always feels like dust returns to dust.</p><p>On the other hand, the GEM index, although it also experienced a soaring rise in the second half of last year and a big correction in February, has now gone out of a rather awesome market, constantly breaking its position and hitting a new high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b9eda64cf7fc8e2eb004f2b0ca7d0a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Behind this, the market likes the new and hates the old for the technology sector, which can be seen at a glance from the constituent stocks.</p><p>Among the 30 constituent stocks of Hang Seng Technology Index, Internet companies account for 60% in number and 68% in weight. Among the top ten weights, Internet companies account for 8 seats. It can be said that Hang Seng Technology Index is equivalent to China's Internet listed company index.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0df5bda2d6ae98f25103bd7f5647c1b8\" tg-width=\"848\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Among the 100 constituent stocks of the GEM index, only 4 companies belong to Internet media, and a total of 72 companies belong to the manufacturing industry. Among the top 10 weights, 7 companies belong to high-tech manufacturing industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9055b3f76f262dc257754ec9c2cd494d\" tg-width=\"851\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>The constituent stocks of the two indexes basically represent the focus of the two markets. The technology stocks of Hong Kong stocks are mainly based on the Internet virtual economy, commonly known as<b>\"Soft Tech\"</b>While the GEM is dominated by entity manufacturing, commonly known as<b>\"Hard Tech\".</b></p><p>The main reason why the Hang Seng Technology Index plummeted is that the Internet suffered antitrust this year, especially several leaders, fined and terminated M&A projects, Tencent, Ali, Meituan,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>And so on, the stock price has been corrected by nearly 30% from a high level, becoming the \"culprit\" that drags down the index.</p><p>On the other hand, on the GEM, these manufacturing companies are shining brightly. With the popularity of new energy vehicles, the share price of the leading Ningde era has risen by nearly 30% compared with the high level in February, becoming the hero of driving the rising index.</p><p><b>In the past, the manufacturing industry was often not viewed by capital, with large investment, heavy assets, high cost, long industrial chain and difficult security control, and the light Internet economy was the favorite of capital.</b></p><p><b>Now, the situation has just reversed. On the surface, it is the Internet anti-monopoly and the lithium battery sector with funds, but looking deeper, it also indicates that the economic growth engine is undergoing drastic changes.</b></p><p><h3>2</h3><h3><b>This time, is it really going from the virtual to the real?</b></h3>In the past few years, it is a national propaganda slogan that we often hear, but what we actually see is often loud thunder but little rain.</p><p>In the past 10 years, the engine of China's economic growth is real estate and mobile Internet. Although real estate has industrial attributes, housing prices have continued to hit the sky.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Ordinary people</a>More willing to emphasize its financial attributes, the virtual nature of mobile Internet is stronger.</p><p>Of course, it must also be admitted that it is normal to rely on real estate at a certain stage of economic development, and everyone can feel the economic growth led by the information technology revolution. In addition, these two industries are huge enough, and their power is enough to last for 10-20 years. Therefore, when the engine is still powered, it is not only inconsistent with the economic law to rush to stall the flame, but also there is no industry that can take over the stick after stopping the flame, which may lead the whole country into a pit.</p><p>Not only China, but if you look at the global macro for a long time, you will find that in the past 30-40 years, most developed countries in the world have caught the bad habit of playing virtual economy, and none more than the United States has gone too far.</p><p>The reason is that after President Reagan took office in 1981, he carried out financial liberalization. First, he abolished the financial restriction bill made during the Great Depression, and then through a series of means such as deregulation, tax reduction and supply-side reform, the American economy successfully got out of stagflation and restored its vitality, indirectly buried the Soviet Union, ended the Cold War, defeated Japan economically, and brought mankind into the great era of computers and the Internet.</p><p><b>But finance has always been half an angel and half a devil.</b>In the first half, the United States played very smoothly. It was the age of angels, but it also formed path dependence. In the second half, financial liberalization became a wild horse, constantly squeezing the industrial space. Finally, it stumbled in real estate and brought the whole world down. It was a proper devil's era.</p><p>Therefore, after 2008, Obama proposed the return of manufacturing, and Trump moved the overseas bases of American enterprises back to the United States with both soft and hard tactics. To Biden, chip factories, new energy plants and huge infrastructure plans were built, all of which were 100% real economies.</p><p>You can say that Americans have conducted a deep review and reflection, but the fact is that by this stage of history, the economic cycle is also entering a virtual-real transition range.</p><p>Looking back at the century-old American economy, at the end of the 19th and early 20th centuries, the industrial explosion, electrification and industrialization pushed the United States to the first place in the world economy. Then, the economy began to move from reality to virtuality, playing high in finance, and the stock market collapsed at the end of 1920. In the following decades, the United States began to do infrastructure, manufacturing, R&D, and move from virtuality to reality; However, by the end of 1970s, it began to move from reality to virtuality, until the financial crisis in 2008.</p><p>Calculated down, time also just responds to the old Chinese saying: 30 years to the east of Hedong, 30 years to the west of Hexi. Heavenly Dao reincarnation, cycles change, and today's opportunity to trigger this change is<b>The New Energy Revolution.</b>And information technology in a string of \"0101010\" codes in the virtual world<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CYOU\">swimming</a>In contrast, the energy industry can be said to be a real real economy, which happens not only in the United States but also in China.</p><p>There is no doubt that the big era when the economy once again shifts from virtual to real is coming step by step.</p><p><h3>3</h3><h3><b>Investment: Virtual down, industrial up</b></h3>Speaking back to investment, what are some good strategies to adapt to this big era?</p><p>In fact, the capital market has already given the answer.</p><p>Now the hottest sector is no other than new energy, lithium battery, photovoltaic, Ningde era,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002460\">Ganfeng Lithium</a>Weather Lithium Industry,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601012\">LONGi</a>, the stock price is not the highest, only higher, which also makes many bears dumbfounded, scratching their heads for a long time. Why do people jump into it when it is so high?</p><p>On the other hand, the former Internet star stocks have fallen one after another. Look at the increasing and decreasing actions of large institutions, and they are very honest.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ed0cbdaa2d1ccee11525ed7491a7e0f\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Therefore, under the background of moving from virtual to real, the investment value of the real economy in the future will become more and more prominent.</b></p><p>Of course, not all real economies are touched by rain and dew. In fact, all kinds of \"Mao\" that have been blown into the sky in the past few years have basically fallen. Few food, beverages and core assets are spared, and the speed of capital running is faster than the fall of stock price.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1939dca71ffedd1ebb2395eba46e501\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"1785\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Why?</p><p><b>The industries that are most likely to attract capital are those with huge room for future growth and high certainty.</b>There is no doubt that new energy is in this area. The self-help of all mankind, the boost of global policies, and the broad room for growth. On the other hand, all kinds of traditional \"Mao\" represent either the old economy or industries that are saturated and have weak growth. These industries obviously can't be compared with new energy, and it is even more reasonable to be beaten.</p><p>In fact, the brilliance of all kinds of \"Mao\" in the past four years has its objective existence, but on the other hand, it also shows that there are no industries that can represent the future trend, or these industries have not really broken out. Therefore, when the funds are not effective in small and medium-sized tickets, they can only seek certainty in traditional industries. As a result of the gathering of funds, the traditional \"Mao\" valuation can be easily raised, and the expected performance growth rate of 10% can also be given a valuation of 30 times, 40 times or even higher.</p><p>Now, funds are leaving the traditional \"Mao\" step by step. Except that these \"Mao\" themselves can't match the valuation in performance growth, more importantly, the funds have found \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000997\">New World</a>\"- -New energy. How hot the new energy is, how lonely the traditional \"Mao\" will be.</p><p>Although new energy has been speculated to a very high level, it is still difficult to say that the power is exhausted in terms of capital, flow and stock price performance. Another reason is that the domestic short-selling mechanism is not perfect, which leads to a strong unilateral market. No one knows whether the sky can be created again in the future, because empty singers are constantly beaten in the face, so instead of predicting the follow-up trend, it is better to look at the cost of your position. If it is very low, you can continue to enjoy a bubble time.</p><p><h3>4</h3><h3><b>epilogue</b></h3>In the past, there was a popular paragraph in the capital market:<b>America's strength depends on high technology, and our strength depends on drinking liquor and selling soy sauce.</b></p><p>Although this is a joke, it also reflects the embarrassment of domestic technology stocks. Cow's technology companies are clustered in virtual economies such as the Internet. When these companies are established, they often take money from foreigners. All kinds of VIE structures, British Virgin and Bermuda are dazzling. Due to the restrictions of domestic listing system, it is decided that they can only seek overseas listing. Domestic investors have to take a \"nine twists and eighteen bends\" if they want to share the company's business results.</p><p>However, the manufacturing industry favored by domestic listing is difficult to match the Internet in terms of profit-making effect. The GEM, known as the Chinese version of Nasdaq, has only one word \"say\" most of the time.</p><p>However, in the big era of moving from virtual to real, the GEM is also ushering in its own era. Although there is still a gap between GEM and Hong Kong stocks in terms of system and capital control, the industrial advantages of GEM are also being released step by step.</p><p>On the contrary, Hong Kong stock technology companies, especially Internet companies, are under pressure from the peak of traffic in their business and anti-monopoly in their policies. It is difficult to see hope of rebound in the short term, especially the performance forecast for the first half of the year released at present, which is generally not ideal. Therefore, when the answer sheets are submitted in August, the Hang Seng Technology Index may fall again.</p><p>The loneliness of the Hang Seng Technology Index and the high pitch of the Growth Enterprise Market are still the norm in the second half of the year or even longer.</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hang Seng Technology VS GEM, who do you bet on?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHang Seng Technology VS GEM, who do you bet on?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-23 23:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>When it comes to the development direction of China's economy, it is estimated that even aunt can read two sentences: take the road of scientific and technological innovation and high-quality development.</p><p>Indeed, today, when the real estate engine stops, if you don't want to grow in scientific and technological innovation, there is basically no place to ask for it. This has been verified countless times in the history of world economic development in the past 100 years.</p><p><b>Investment is about following the direction of the surging tide, and technology stocks are in this direction. At present, waves of technology stocks are hot and hot.</b>However, the GEM and Hong Kong stocks, which are recognized as expected to become the Chinese version of Nasdaq, have diverged.</p><p>Which is the real main battlefield of Chinese technology stocks? Which one should we focus on in the future?</p><p><h3>1</h3><h3><b>differentiation</b></h3>GEM and Hong Kong stocks, both<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YJ\">gather</a>The top high-tech company in China,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300760\">Mindray Medical</a>......</p><p>In the past, Hong Kong stocks, where the Internet gathered, were obviously superior and the focus of the spotlight, while the GEM was relatively dim. However, in the past six months, the situation has reversed dramatically, as can be seen from the trends of the two most representative indices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9a943eef0ce5cc99ab970f8ad332faa\" tg-width=\"1001\" tg-height=\"583\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>The Hang Seng Technology Index recently closed at 7,268 points, which is only about 7% from the water level when it was first launched in July last year. After more than a year of ups and downs, the highlight moment reached 11,000 points. Looking at it now, it always feels like dust returns to dust.</p><p>On the other hand, the GEM index, although it also experienced a soaring rise in the second half of last year and a big correction in February, has now gone out of a rather awesome market, constantly breaking its position and hitting a new high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b9eda64cf7fc8e2eb004f2b0ca7d0a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Behind this, the market likes the new and hates the old for the technology sector, which can be seen at a glance from the constituent stocks.</p><p>Among the 30 constituent stocks of Hang Seng Technology Index, Internet companies account for 60% in number and 68% in weight. Among the top ten weights, Internet companies account for 8 seats. It can be said that Hang Seng Technology Index is equivalent to China's Internet listed company index.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0df5bda2d6ae98f25103bd7f5647c1b8\" tg-width=\"848\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Among the 100 constituent stocks of the GEM index, only 4 companies belong to Internet media, and a total of 72 companies belong to the manufacturing industry. Among the top 10 weights, 7 companies belong to high-tech manufacturing industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9055b3f76f262dc257754ec9c2cd494d\" tg-width=\"851\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>The constituent stocks of the two indexes basically represent the focus of the two markets. The technology stocks of Hong Kong stocks are mainly based on the Internet virtual economy, commonly known as<b>\"Soft Tech\"</b>While the GEM is dominated by entity manufacturing, commonly known as<b>\"Hard Tech\".</b></p><p>The main reason why the Hang Seng Technology Index plummeted is that the Internet suffered antitrust this year, especially several leaders, fined and terminated M&A projects, Tencent, Ali, Meituan,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>And so on, the stock price has been corrected by nearly 30% from a high level, becoming the \"culprit\" that drags down the index.</p><p>On the other hand, on the GEM, these manufacturing companies are shining brightly. With the popularity of new energy vehicles, the share price of the leading Ningde era has risen by nearly 30% compared with the high level in February, becoming the hero of driving the rising index.</p><p><b>In the past, the manufacturing industry was often not viewed by capital, with large investment, heavy assets, high cost, long industrial chain and difficult security control, and the light Internet economy was the favorite of capital.</b></p><p><b>Now, the situation has just reversed. On the surface, it is the Internet anti-monopoly and the lithium battery sector with funds, but looking deeper, it also indicates that the economic growth engine is undergoing drastic changes.</b></p><p><h3>2</h3><h3><b>This time, is it really going from the virtual to the real?</b></h3>In the past few years, it is a national propaganda slogan that we often hear, but what we actually see is often loud thunder but little rain.</p><p>In the past 10 years, the engine of China's economic growth is real estate and mobile Internet. Although real estate has industrial attributes, housing prices have continued to hit the sky.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Ordinary people</a>More willing to emphasize its financial attributes, the virtual nature of mobile Internet is stronger.</p><p>Of course, it must also be admitted that it is normal to rely on real estate at a certain stage of economic development, and everyone can feel the economic growth led by the information technology revolution. In addition, these two industries are huge enough, and their power is enough to last for 10-20 years. Therefore, when the engine is still powered, it is not only inconsistent with the economic law to rush to stall the flame, but also there is no industry that can take over the stick after stopping the flame, which may lead the whole country into a pit.</p><p>Not only China, but if you look at the global macro for a long time, you will find that in the past 30-40 years, most developed countries in the world have caught the bad habit of playing virtual economy, and none more than the United States has gone too far.</p><p>The reason is that after President Reagan took office in 1981, he carried out financial liberalization. First, he abolished the financial restriction bill made during the Great Depression, and then through a series of means such as deregulation, tax reduction and supply-side reform, the American economy successfully got out of stagflation and restored its vitality, indirectly buried the Soviet Union, ended the Cold War, defeated Japan economically, and brought mankind into the great era of computers and the Internet.</p><p><b>But finance has always been half an angel and half a devil.</b>In the first half, the United States played very smoothly. It was the age of angels, but it also formed path dependence. In the second half, financial liberalization became a wild horse, constantly squeezing the industrial space. Finally, it stumbled in real estate and brought the whole world down. It was a proper devil's era.</p><p>Therefore, after 2008, Obama proposed the return of manufacturing, and Trump moved the overseas bases of American enterprises back to the United States with both soft and hard tactics. To Biden, chip factories, new energy plants and huge infrastructure plans were built, all of which were 100% real economies.</p><p>You can say that Americans have conducted a deep review and reflection, but the fact is that by this stage of history, the economic cycle is also entering a virtual-real transition range.</p><p>Looking back at the century-old American economy, at the end of the 19th and early 20th centuries, the industrial explosion, electrification and industrialization pushed the United States to the first place in the world economy. Then, the economy began to move from reality to virtuality, playing high in finance, and the stock market collapsed at the end of 1920. In the following decades, the United States began to do infrastructure, manufacturing, R&D, and move from virtuality to reality; However, by the end of 1970s, it began to move from reality to virtuality, until the financial crisis in 2008.</p><p>Calculated down, time also just responds to the old Chinese saying: 30 years to the east of Hedong, 30 years to the west of Hexi. Heavenly Dao reincarnation, cycles change, and today's opportunity to trigger this change is<b>The New Energy Revolution.</b>And information technology in a string of \"0101010\" codes in the virtual world<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CYOU\">swimming</a>In contrast, the energy industry can be said to be a real real economy, which happens not only in the United States but also in China.</p><p>There is no doubt that the big era when the economy once again shifts from virtual to real is coming step by step.</p><p><h3>3</h3><h3><b>Investment: Virtual down, industrial up</b></h3>Speaking back to investment, what are some good strategies to adapt to this big era?</p><p>In fact, the capital market has already given the answer.</p><p>Now the hottest sector is no other than new energy, lithium battery, photovoltaic, Ningde era,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002460\">Ganfeng Lithium</a>Weather Lithium Industry,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601012\">LONGi</a>, the stock price is not the highest, only higher, which also makes many bears dumbfounded, scratching their heads for a long time. Why do people jump into it when it is so high?</p><p>On the other hand, the former Internet star stocks have fallen one after another. Look at the increasing and decreasing actions of large institutions, and they are very honest.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ed0cbdaa2d1ccee11525ed7491a7e0f\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Therefore, under the background of moving from virtual to real, the investment value of the real economy in the future will become more and more prominent.</b></p><p>Of course, not all real economies are touched by rain and dew. In fact, all kinds of \"Mao\" that have been blown into the sky in the past few years have basically fallen. Few food, beverages and core assets are spared, and the speed of capital running is faster than the fall of stock price.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1939dca71ffedd1ebb2395eba46e501\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"1785\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Why?</p><p><b>The industries that are most likely to attract capital are those with huge room for future growth and high certainty.</b>There is no doubt that new energy is in this area. The self-help of all mankind, the boost of global policies, and the broad room for growth. On the other hand, all kinds of traditional \"Mao\" represent either the old economy or industries that are saturated and have weak growth. These industries obviously can't be compared with new energy, and it is even more reasonable to be beaten.</p><p>In fact, the brilliance of all kinds of \"Mao\" in the past four years has its objective existence, but on the other hand, it also shows that there are no industries that can represent the future trend, or these industries have not really broken out. Therefore, when the funds are not effective in small and medium-sized tickets, they can only seek certainty in traditional industries. As a result of the gathering of funds, the traditional \"Mao\" valuation can be easily raised, and the expected performance growth rate of 10% can also be given a valuation of 30 times, 40 times or even higher.</p><p>Now, funds are leaving the traditional \"Mao\" step by step. Except that these \"Mao\" themselves can't match the valuation in performance growth, more importantly, the funds have found \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000997\">New World</a>\"- -New energy. How hot the new energy is, how lonely the traditional \"Mao\" will be.</p><p>Although new energy has been speculated to a very high level, it is still difficult to say that the power is exhausted in terms of capital, flow and stock price performance. Another reason is that the domestic short-selling mechanism is not perfect, which leads to a strong unilateral market. No one knows whether the sky can be created again in the future, because empty singers are constantly beaten in the face, so instead of predicting the follow-up trend, it is better to look at the cost of your position. If it is very low, you can continue to enjoy a bubble time.</p><p><h3>4</h3><h3><b>epilogue</b></h3>In the past, there was a popular paragraph in the capital market:<b>America's strength depends on high technology, and our strength depends on drinking liquor and selling soy sauce.</b></p><p>Although this is a joke, it also reflects the embarrassment of domestic technology stocks. Cow's technology companies are clustered in virtual economies such as the Internet. When these companies are established, they often take money from foreigners. All kinds of VIE structures, British Virgin and Bermuda are dazzling. Due to the restrictions of domestic listing system, it is decided that they can only seek overseas listing. Domestic investors have to take a \"nine twists and eighteen bends\" if they want to share the company's business results.</p><p>However, the manufacturing industry favored by domestic listing is difficult to match the Internet in terms of profit-making effect. The GEM, known as the Chinese version of Nasdaq, has only one word \"say\" most of the time.</p><p>However, in the big era of moving from virtual to real, the GEM is also ushering in its own era. Although there is still a gap between GEM and Hong Kong stocks in terms of system and capital control, the industrial advantages of GEM are also being released step by step.</p><p>On the contrary, Hong Kong stock technology companies, especially Internet companies, are under pressure from the peak of traffic in their business and anti-monopoly in their policies. It is difficult to see hope of rebound in the short term, especially the performance forecast for the first half of the year released at present, which is generally not ideal. Therefore, when the answer sheets are submitted in August, the Hang Seng Technology Index may fall again.</p><p>The loneliness of the Hang Seng Technology Index and the high pitch of the Growth Enterprise Market are still the norm in the second half of the year or even longer.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/477262\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de0bbe341ac5d74e1a8d74c9ca5de715","relate_stocks":{"159740":"恒生科技","159915":"创业板","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/477262","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2153981305","content_text":"要说中国经济的发展方向，估计连大妈都能念上两句：走科技创新之路，走高质量发展之路。\n的确，在房地产引擎熄火的今天，不往科技创新要增长，基本也就没有地方要了，这在过去百年世界经济发展史上已经被验证过无数次。\n投资讲求的是顺着潮水涌动的方向，科技股正是这个方向，眼下一波又一波的科技股浪潮，热的发烫。但是，公认的有望成为中国版纳斯达克的创业板和港股，行情却出现分化。\n到底哪一个才是真正的中国科技股主战场？未来又应该着重布局哪一个？\n1\n分化\n创业板和港股，都云集了国内最顶尖的高科技公司，腾讯、阿里巴巴、百度、宁德时代、迈瑞医疗......\n如果放在以前，互联网扎堆的港股明显更胜一筹，是聚光灯的焦点，创业板则相对暗淡。但最近这半年，情况发生大逆转，从两个最具代表性的指数的走势便可见一斑。\n\n恒生科技指数最新收报7268点，距离去年7月份刚推出时的水位，只有7%左右，一年多的大起大落，高光时刻去到11000点，现在再看，总有点尘归尘土归土的感觉。\n反观创业板指数，尽管同样经历去年下半年的疯涨和2月份的大回调，但现在已经走出了相当牛逼的行情，不断破位，创出新高。\n\n这背后，是市场对科技板块的喜新厌旧，从成分股中便一览无遗。\n恒生科技指数的30个成分股中，数量上互联网公司占到60%，权重占到68%，前十大权重中，互联网公司占了8席，可以说，恒生科技指数等同于中国的互联网上市公司指数。\n\n而创业板指数的100家成分股，归属互联网传媒的公司只有4家，属于制造业的一共72家，前10大权重中，有7家属于高科技术制造业。\n\n两大指数的成分股基本代表了两个市场的重点所在，港股的科技股是互联网虚拟经济为主，俗称“软科技”，而创业板则是实体制造业为主，俗称“硬科技”。\n而恒生科技指数之所以暴跌，主要原因就是互联网今年遭遇反垄断，尤其是几大龙头，罚款、终止并购项目，腾讯、阿里、美团、京东等，股价都高位回调近3成，成为拖累指数的“元凶”。\n反观创业板，这些制造业公司则大放异彩，新能源汽车的火热，龙头宁德时代的股价比2月的高位还涨了近30%，成为推动指数不断上涨的功臣。\n过去，制造业往往不受资本待见，投入大、重资产、成本高、产业链过长且安全性不好控制，而轻盈的互联网经济才是资本的最爱。\n现在，形势正好反转过来，表面看，是互联网反垄断，是资金抱团锂电板块，但往深的看，这也预示着经济增长引擎正在发生剧变。\n2\n这回，是真的脱虚向实？\n脱虚向实，是过去几年经常听到的国家宣传标语，但实际看到的，往往雷声大雨点小。\n事关过去10年，中国的经济增长引擎，是房地产和移动互联网，房地产虽然有实业的属性，但房价不断创出天际，老百姓更愿意强调它的金融属性，移动互联网的虚拟性就更强了。\n当然，也必须承认，在经济发展到某个阶段，依赖地产很正常，而信息技术革命引领下的经济增长，大家也都能感受得到。加上这两个产业足够庞大，动力足以维持10-20年，所以，在引擎还有动力的时候，贸贸然掐熄火，不仅不符合经济规律，而且熄火后没有能接过棒的产业，搞不好会把整个国家带坑里头。\n不单单是中国，如果拉长时间看全球宏观，你会发现，过去30-40年时间里，全世界大多数的发达国家，都染上了玩虚拟经济的恶习，玩得最过火的莫过于美国。\n原因在于，1981年里根总统上台后，推行金融自由化，先是废除了“大萧条”时期定下的金融限制法案，然后通过放松管制、减税、供给侧改革等一系列手段，让美国经济成功走出滞胀，恢复活力，并间接埋葬苏联、结束冷战，在经济上战胜日本，并把人类带入了伟大的计算机和互联网时代。\n但是金融这个东西，从来都是一半天使，一半魔鬼。前半段，美国玩得非常溜，那是天使时代，但是也形成了路径依赖。以至后半段，金融自由化变成了脱缰的野马，不断地挤压实业的空间，最后在房地产上栽了跟头，并带崩了全世界，是妥妥的魔鬼时代。\n所以08年后，奥巴马提出制造业回归，特朗普软硬兼施要把美国企业的海外基地搬回美国，到拜登，芯片厂要建、新能源厂要建，还有庞大的基建计划，这些都是百分百的实体经济。\n你可以说美国人进行了深刻的检讨和反思，但事实是，到这个历史阶段，经济周期也正进入虚实转换区间。\n回看百年的美国经济，19世纪末20世纪初，实业大爆发，电气化、工业化，把美国推到世界经济第一。然后，经济开始脱实向虚，玩金融玩得high，1920年末股市崩盘，之后的几十年，美国开始做基建，做制造业，做研发，脱虚向实；但到1970年代末，又开始脱实向虚，直到08年金融危机。\n算下来，时间也正好应了中国那句老话：30年河东，30年河西。天道轮回，周期更替，而今天引发这个更替的契机，是新的能源革命。和信息技术在一串串“0101010”代码的虚拟世界畅游相比，能源产业可以说是实打实的实体经济，这不仅发生在美国，也发生在中国。\n经济再一次脱虚向实的大时代，毫无疑问正一步步走来。\n3\n投资：虚拟向下，实业向上\n说回投资，到底有什么好的策略去适应这个大时代？\n其实，资本市场已经给出了答案。\n现在最火的板块，非新能源莫属，锂电池、光伏，宁德时代、赣锋锂业、天气锂业、隆基股份，股价没有最高，只有更高，这也令很多看空者傻了眼，半天摸不着头脑，这么高为何还有人往里面跳？\n可另一面，昔日的互联网明星股，陆陆续续陷落。再看看大机构的增减持动作，实诚得很。\n\n所以，在脱虚向实的大背景下，未来实体经济的投资价值，会越来越凸显。\n当然，并非所有的实体经济都雨露均沾，事实上，过去几年被吹上天的各种“茅”，基本都陷落了，食品饮料、核心资产，没有几个能幸免，资本的跑路速度，比股价的下跌还要快。\n\n为何？\n最容易吸引资本的产业，是未来增长空间巨大且确定性高的产业。新能源在这块毋庸置疑，全人类的自救、全球政策的助推、广阔的增长空间，反观各种传统“茅”，所代表的，不是旧经济，就是已经饱和，增长乏力的产业，这些产业显然无法和新能源相比，被吊打更是情理之中。\n其实，过去4年各种“茅”的辉煌，有其客观存在性，但另一面，也表明尚未出现非常能够代表未来趋势的产业，或者说这些产业还没真正爆发，所以资金在中小票忽悠不奏效的情况下，只能在传统产业中寻求确定性。资金扎堆的结果，就是传统“茅”估值很容易被抬升，10%的业绩增速预期，也可以给到30倍、40倍甚至更高的估值。\n现在，资金正在一步步离传统“茅”而去，除了这些“茅”本身在业绩增长匹配不上估值，更重要的，是资金们找到了“新大陆”--新能源。新能源有多火热，传统“茅”就会多落寞。\n新能源虽然已经被炒到很高，但从资金和流向和股价表现，动力仍难说枯竭，还有一个原因，就是国内的做空机制还不是很完善，导致了单边行情仍然强势。未来还能不能再创出天际，没人知道，因为唱空者不断被打脸，所以与其预测后续走势，不如看看自己的仓位成本，如果很低，大可以继续享受一段泡沫时光。\n4\n结语\n过去资本市场流行一个段子：美国的强大靠高科技，我们的强大靠喝白酒，卖酱油。\n这虽然是一句玩笑话，但也折射出国内科技股的尴尬，牛的科技企业都扎堆在互联网等虚拟经济，这些公司建立时常常拿了老外的钱，各种VIE结构、英属维尔京、百慕大，眼花缭乱，由于国内上市制度的限制，决定它们只能谋求海外上市，国内投资者要想分享公司经营成果，得绕上个“九曲十八弯”。\n而国内上市所青睐的制造业，在赚钱效应上又难以匹敌互联网，号称中国版纳斯达克的创业板，大部分时间都只得一个“说”字。\n不过，在脱虚向实的大时代，创业板也正迎来属于自己的时代。虽然制度上、资本管制上，创业板和港股仍然有差距，但创业板在产业上的优势也正一步步释放。\n反而是港股科技公司，尤其是互联网公司，业务上受压于流量见顶，政策上受压于反垄断，短期内还很难看得到反弹希望，尤其是目前释出的上半年业绩预测，普遍都不甚理想，所以，等到8月份集中交答卷的时候，恒生科技指数还有可能再来一轮下跌。\n恒生科技指数的落寞，和创业板的高亢，仍然是下半年甚至更长时间的常态。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159740":0.9,"159915":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4751,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177049949,"gmtCreate":1627171915281,"gmtModify":1703484927364,"author":{"id":"3582447232774198","authorId":"3582447232774198","name":"OngSeahKuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e816551cae0cc36e250c08c2029dd38c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582447232774198","authorIdStr":"3582447232774198"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/177049949","repostId":"1169383564","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
