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2025-03-27

$Walt Disney(DIS)$ little gain

2023-05-05

2023-05-04

2023-04-29

Sell at May and run away

@MillionaireTiger:【Thursday Special】Will You Sell In May And Go Away?

2023-02-02

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U.S. stocks are soaring, but there is a hidden "devil"! What happened?

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Munger: How to face the huge pullback/retracement in investing?

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away","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947145515","repostId":"9947350102","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9947350102,"gmtCreate":1682596025806,"gmtModify":1682596039870,"author":{"id":"3527667618821228","authorId":"3527667618821228","name":"MillionaireTiger","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc558bf32e48ad6ed6d057026ef55af7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667618821228","idStr":"3527667618821228"},"themes":[],"title":"【Thursday Special】Will You Sell In May And Go Away?","htmlText":"Welcome&nbsp;to&nbsp;this&nbsp;week's&nbsp;Thursday&nbsp;Special!&nbsp;Tomorrow is the last trading day of April. May is here! Happy Labor Day! How are you going to spend your holiday?Sell in May and Go Away” – in 9 out of 11 Countries it Makes Sense to Do So snbchf.comToday we'll talk about “Sell in May and go away”. Do you think there will be a sell-off in May? And why?For example, you may find some clues from the earnings, the trend of <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a> or huge gains since the YTD. Please share your opinions with evidence in the comment. Buy in June and Retire by Noon | Robinhood | Know Your MemeTips:Everyone&nbsp;who&nbsp;shares&nbsp;specific experiences or strategies&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;rewarded.&nbsp;No&nbsp;coins&nbsp;for&nbsp;the&nbsp;","listText":"Welcome&nbsp;to&nbsp;this&nbsp;week's&nbsp;Thursday&nbsp;Special!&nbsp;Tomorrow is the last trading day of April. May is here! Happy Labor Day! How are you going to spend your holiday?Sell in May and Go Away” – in 9 out of 11 Countries it Makes Sense to Do So snbchf.comToday we'll talk about “Sell in May and go away”. Do you think there will be a sell-off in May? And why?For example, you may find some clues from the earnings, the trend of <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a> or huge gains since the YTD. Please share your opinions with evidence in the comment. Buy in June and Retire by Noon | Robinhood | Know Your MemeTips:Everyone&nbsp;who&nbsp;shares&nbsp;specific experiences or strategies&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;rewarded.&nbsp;No&nbsp;coins&nbsp;for&nbsp;the&nbsp;","text":"Welcome to this week's Thursday Special! Tomorrow is the last trading day of April. May is here! Happy Labor Day! How are you going to spend your holiday?Sell in May and Go Away” – in 9 out of 11 Countries it Makes Sense to Do So snbchf.comToday we'll talk about “Sell in May and go away”. Do you think there will be a sell-off in May? And why?For example, you may find some clues from the earnings, the trend of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ or huge gains since the YTD. Please share your opinions with evidence in the comment. Buy in June and Retire by Noon | Robinhood | Know Your MemeTips:Everyone who shares specific experiences or strategies will be rewarded. No coins for the","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a4331c27bf9d5966a836b2a705aea3b0","width":"640","height":"405"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947350102","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955854914,"gmtCreate":1675351463839,"gmtModify":1676538995953,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581989768565324","idStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👀","listText":"👀","text":"👀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955854914","repostId":"1115990913","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115990913","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1675305850,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1115990913?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-02 10:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. stocks are soaring, but there is a hidden \"devil\"! What happened?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115990913","media":"招商宏观静思录","summary":"美联储价格型政策影响短端美债，数量型政策影响中长端美债。海外资产对美联储加息收敛乃至结束加息的定价已充分，但缩表冲击尚未反应。此前海外市场处于最佳组合：美国经济尚未衰退、10Y美债收益率大幅回落；未来","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The Fed's price policy affects short-term U.S. debt, while its quantitative policy affects medium-and long-term U.S. debt. Overseas assets have fully priced the convergence of the Fed's rate hike and even the end of the rate hike, but the shrinking balance sheet shock has not yet reacted. Previously, overseas markets were in the best combination: the U.S. economy has not yet declined, and the yield of 10Y U.S. bonds has dropped sharply; The next few months may face the worst combination: the U.S. economy begins to decline, and the 10Y U.S. bond yield remains indifferent.</b></p><p><b>Continue to slow down rate hike, the dovish interpretation of the market is slightly inappropriate: 1)</b>The Federal Reserve announced a rate hike of 25BP and maintained the $95 billion/month shrinking balance sheet plan, in line with market expectations.<b>2）</b>Continuing to slow down rate hike is related to two factors: inflation has eased; Interest rate-sensitive sectors have reacted to rate hike, but there is a lagging effect of monetary policy, which has not yet been fully manifested and needs to be observed.<b>3）</b>The Fed's operation did not exceed the market expectations before the meeting, and the dovish interpretation may be slightly inappropriate. Before the announcement of the Fed's interest rate resolution, the market's expectation for the Fed's operation was that this interest rate meeting would be 25BP in rate hike, 25BP in March, and then the rate hike would be stopped. From November to December, the Fed would start to consider cutting interest rates. While admitting that inflation is slowing down, Powell also expressed the consideration that inflation is still high and the job market is still resilient, and has not yet mentioned the timing of ending the shrinking balance sheet. In other words, there will be at least one rate hike in the future. This Fed's interest rate meeting has fulfilled the market expectations before the meeting at most.</p><p><b>Back to the economic fundamentals itself: 1) Short-term employment and economic data both exceeded the Fed's previous expectations.</b>The Federal Reserve's December FOMC economic outlook predicts that 2022Q4 U.S. real GDP will grow by 0.50% year-on-year, and the published value will be 0.96%; In December, the Fed expected the unemployment rate to rebound to 3.7%, but it was actually 3.5%. As long as the economic data does not take a sharp turn for the worse in the short term, the Fed does not need to signal more easing.<b>2) However, in the medium term, enterprise costs have plummeted, ISM non-manufacturing PMI has fallen below the boom-bust line, and the cyclical recession of the US economy is approaching.</b>We fitted the comprehensive average cost index of American enterprises with the weights of financing cost, raw material cost and labor cost. Since 1970s, this index has dropped rapidly from its high level eight times, and only after 2011Q3, the United States has not experienced negative economic growth. The metric peaked in 2022Q2 and retreated rapidly in 2022Q3-Q4, signaling the beginning of a slowdown in aggregate U.S. demand. In addition, since the late 1990s, the non-manufacturing PMI of ISM in the United States has only fallen below the boom-bust line during the economic recession. In December, this indicator was only 49.6, which also indicates the recession risk of the United States economy.</p><p><b>The shrinking balance sheet shock seems to be showing: the most comfortable days are over, and the worst combinations have surfaced. 1) The \"demon\" hidden in the details:</b>M2 turned negative year-on-year, for the first time since 1959. Although it will accelerate the decline of inflation, it is also the result of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet. It can be seen that the Fed's shrinking balance sheet has influenced economic factors by affecting money injection and credit derivation.<b>2) Under the dual constraints of shrinking balance sheet and non-US central banks reducing their holdings of US bonds, it is more difficult for the 10-year US bond yield center to move further downward.</b>In the past three months or so, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds dropped from 4.25% to 3.39%, which indicates that the market has taken more into account the impact of cooling economic factors. However, the impact of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet and non-U.S. central banks' reduction of U.S. bonds and the future increase of the debt ceiling on the supply and demand structure of long-term U.S. bonds has not been fully reflected. Although it is difficult for the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds to recover during the economic recession, the continuous reduction of U.S. bonds by the Federal Reserve and non-U.S. central banks also makes the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds not much room for decline for the time being.</p><p><b>In the past quarter, the best combination appeared in the United States: the economy has not yet declined, and the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds has dropped sharply; But the next few months may face the worst combination: the economy begins to decline, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury remains indifferent. Based on this, our judgment on each class of assets is as follows: 1)</b>The yield of 10-year U.S. bonds has entered a fluctuating period, with a fluctuating range of 3.2~3.5%;<b>2）</b>The yield of 2-year U.S. bonds continued to fall, and the inversion of the long and short ends narrowed;<b>3）</b>U.S. stocks started the last drop in killing performance;<b>4）</b>the US Dollar Index or fluctuate in the range of 100-103;<b>5）</b>The above factors have certain negative disturbances to RMB-denominated assets, but internal factors are still the core contradictions of RMB-denominated assets.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>I.</b><b>Continue to slow down rate hike, market dovish interpretation</b></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve announced a rate hike of 25BP and maintained the $95 billion/month shrinking balance sheet plan, in line with market expectations.</b>The Federal Reserve issued a statement at the February interest rate meeting, raising the target interest rate of federal funds by 25BP to the range of 4.50%-4.75%, and said that it would maintain the shrinking balance sheet rhythm of reducing U.S. bonds by $60 billion/month and MBS by $35 billion/month since September.</p><p><b>Combined with Powell's speech, the Fed's continued slowdown rate hike is related to two factors: 1)</b>Acknowledging that inflation has eased (the FOMC's statement in December was that inflation remains high);<b>2）</b>Interest-rate sensitive sectors such as real estate have reacted to rate hike, but the lagging effects of monetary policy on economic activity, inflation and financial development have not yet been fully manifested and need to be observed.</p><p><b>The market interpreted it as dovish, but there seems to be a risk of difference in expectations.</b>After the interest rate meeting, especially after Powell's speech, the yield of U.S. bonds dropped significantly, U.S. stocks rose sharply, and gold also performed to a certain extent. It seems that the market interpreted the Fed's continuous slowdown of rate hike as dovish. But<b>The Fed's operation did not exceed the market expectations before the meeting, and the dovish interpretation may be slightly inappropriate.</b>Before the announcement of the Fed's interest rate resolution on February 1st, the market's expectation for the Fed's operation was that the rate hike of this interest rate meeting would be 25BP, and the interest rate would be raised by 25BP in March. Then the rate hike would be stopped. From November to December, the Fed would start to consider cutting interest rates. After the announcement of the statement, while admitting that inflation is slowing down, Powell also expressed the consideration that inflation is still high and the job market is still resilient, and has not yet mentioned the timing of ending the shrinking balance sheet. In other words, there will be at least one rate hike in the future (if the data is still strong, the possibility of more rate hike is not ruled out, although this possibility is not high). This Fed's interest rate meeting has fulfilled the market expectations before the meeting at most.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d7fa88496368b596b721f5d20e5ada3\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Regarding the future prospects of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, we have three understandings: 1) The rhythm of the Federal Reserve's policy will have certain political considerations, which will inevitably be targeted.</b>After the midterm elections, the Federal Reserve began to slow down. rate hike confirmed the view that we have always emphasized since the end of August last year that \"the midterm elections are the watershed of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy\", and it can be seen that the rhythm of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has certain political considerations. Looking back, the timing of interest rate cuts will probably choose the most critical time window for the economy and politics, instead of releasing the signal of interest rate cuts immediately after the end of the rate hike.<b>2) When rate hike is coming to an end, it is most likely to generate a difference in expectations, and Powell is worried about doing too little.</b>Whether more (rate hike) or less (rate hike) depends entirely on high-frequency data. In his answer to reporter's question, Powell even stressed that the policy risk is that \"doing too little has not effectively controlled inflation\". If the U.S. employment data does not weaken significantly in the next 1-2 months, then not only is the landing of the 25BP rate hike in March a certainty, but the market may even revise the expectation that the rate hike will end after March and the interest rate cut will begin in Q4.<b>3) Market attention is about to turn to shrinking balance sheet.</b>From the experience of 2018-2019, between the end of the rate hike and the start of interest rate cuts, the Fed still needs to end its shrinking balance sheet at a timely time. If the market does not misjudge the Fed's price policy, the attention of the follow-up market will turn to the influence of shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><b>Furthermore, we need to answer three questions: What will be the impact of the Fed's shrinking? Has it been fully digested by the market? When will the U.S. economy need a Fed rate cut?</b></p><p><b>II.</b><b>Back to the economy itself: short-term beat-expectations, but approaching recession</b></p><p><b>Short-term employment and economic data both exceeded the Fed's previous expectations.</b>The Federal Reserve's December FOMC economic outlook predicts that 2022Q4 U.S. real GDP will grow by 0.50% year-on-year, but the final published value is 0.96%; The December economic outlook also expects the unemployment rate to rebound to 3.7% by the end of the year, which is actually 3.5%. In other words, the short-term strength of the US economy is even better than the Fed's assessment, so as long as there is no sharp turn for the worse in the short term, the Fed does not need to give a looser signal. The market's current risk appetite seems to be overdone.</p><p><b>However, in the medium term, corporate costs have plummeted, ISM non-manufacturing PMI has fallen below the boom-bust line, and the cyclical recession of the US economy is approaching.</b>Although we pointed out in our report \"The Resilience of the U.S. Economy and Implications for China's Liberalization\" dated December 28, 2022, in the context of labor shortage in the past two years, low-and middle-income groups with low educational background and lack of work experience before the epidemic were more likely to get high-paid jobs after the epidemic, thus enhancing the resilience of employment, consumption and economic data. But that doesn't prevent a cyclical recession coming to the U.S. economy. We fitted the comprehensive average cost index of American enterprises with the weights of financing cost, raw material cost and labor cost. Since 1970s, this index has dropped rapidly from its high level eight times, and the eight vertices appeared in 1974Q4, 1981Q2, 1990Q4, 2001Q3, 2008Q3, 2011Q3 and 2022Q2 respectively. Previously, after the comprehensive average cost index of American enterprises peaked and fell rapidly, only after 2011Q3, the United States did not experience negative economic growth, and the remaining six times, the United States economy all experienced negative economic growth. This reflects that slowing aggregate demand is the end of rate hike crushing inflation. The metric peaked in 2022Q2 and retreated rapidly in 2022Q3-Q4, signaling the beginning of a slowdown in aggregate U.S. demand. In addition, since the late 1990s, the non-manufacturing PMI of ISM in the United States has only fallen below the boom-bust line during the economic recession. In December, this indicator was only 49.6, which also indicates the recession risk of the United States economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d20bbbc291c206368453d04800c27ebf\" tg-width=\"1029\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd4071d0394b02a49b498cb9d78e97be\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Third, the shrinking balance sheet shock seems to be showing: the most comfortable days are over, and the worst combinations have surfaced</b></p><p><b>The \"devil\" hidden in the details: M2 turned negative year-on-year, which will accelerate the decline of inflation, but it is also the result of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet.</b>In 2020H2, there were concerns about high inflation in the United States in the market. The main logic is that M2 experienced a rare double-digit growth year-on-year. In February 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was as high as 26.9%, the highest since data was available. Not surprisingly, from 2021H2 to 2022H1, the U.S. CPI rose as rapidly and sharply as a wild horse, with a high point of 9.1%, the highest since November 1981. U.S. M2 declined to-1.3% year-on-year in December 2022, turning negative for the first time since 1959.</p><p>If the high level of M2 in the United States contributes to inflation after the epidemic, then the year-on-year negative turn of M2 theoretically means that inflation in the United States may fall more than expected, quickly and sharply. This conclusion supports the Fed's quick end of rate hike. But the question is why the year-on-year growth rate of M2 turned negative? The answer is Fed shrinking balance sheet. As shown in the chart below, each massive Fed balance sheet-sized shock exacerbates the year-over-year M2 volatility. In March 2021, when the year-on-year growth rate of M2 fell from the high point, it just corresponded to the inflection point of the Fed's balance sheet expansion rate. After the Fed ended its balance sheet expansion, the M2 in the United States plummeted sharply, while the M2 turned negative with the same increase was probably the result of shrinking balance sheet. In other words, the Fed's shrinking balance sheet has influenced economic factors by influencing money injection and credit derivation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62ce38069d10ff6a66f708905f4b18f2\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e15a7381a19ae0e1c4f36426f6a813\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The Fed's price-based instruments affect the yield of U.S. bonds with a maturity of 2 years or less, while the quantitative instruments affect the yield of U.S. bonds with a maturity of 10 years or more. At present, it is more difficult for the 10-year U.S. bond yield center to move further downward.</b>Theoretically, under the background of increasing downward risks of economic recession and inflation, the yield center of 10-year U.S. bonds should move further downward, approaching 3% or even lower. But supply and demand are likely to counter this trend. First of all, the Fed's rate hike and interest rate cuts affect the short-term U.S. bond yield more, but not the long-term, but quantitative tools such as QE and shrinking balance sheet directly affect the long-term U.S. bond yield through changes in supply and demand. In addition, long-term US debt demand factors also include non-US central banks increasing or decreasing US debt holdings. The 2022 10-year U.S. Treasury yield high of 4.25% was significantly higher than our expectations at the beginning of last year, but this was not driven by the Fed's rate hike, but the result of economic factors (including high inflation), the Fed's shrinking balance sheet and the resonance of non-U.S. central bank reductions in U.S. debt. In the past three months or so, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds dropped from 4.25% to 3.39%, which indicates that the market has taken more into account the impact of cooling economic factors. However, the impact of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet and non-U.S. central banks' reduction of U.S. bonds and the future increase of the debt ceiling on the supply and demand structure of long-term U.S. bonds has not been fully reflected. Although it is difficult for the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds to recover during the economic recession, the continuous reduction of U.S. bonds by the Federal Reserve and non-U.S. central banks also makes the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds not much room for decline for the time being.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77f03d31965149c1bc8626adce4e6175\" tg-width=\"1009\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>It can be seen that the best combination appeared in the United States in the past quarter: the economy has not yet declined, and the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds has dropped sharply; However, in the next 1-2 quarters, the United States may face the worst combination: the economy begins to decline, and the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds remains indifferent.</b></p><p><b>Fourth, the last decline of U.S. stocks may kick off</b></p><p>In the second half of last year, we have been saying that the U.S. stock market will have the last decline caused by killing performance, but it has never happened. The reason is that the resilience of the U.S. economy still exists and the market has early taken into account the expectation of the Fed's monetary policy shift. In particular, the rebound of U.S. stocks in the past quarter just reflects that \"the economy has not yet declined, and the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds has dropped sharply\". Therefore, the 10-year Schiller cycle-adjusted P/E (CAPE) of the S&P 500 index has returned to a record high of 29.92 times. If, as we expected, the U.S. financial market environment will face the worst combination in the next 1-2 quarters, \"the economy begins to decline, and the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds is constrained by factors such as the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet and the center is difficult to move further downward\", then the U.S. stock market is bound to start the last drop in performance.</p><p>Based on this, our judgment on various types of assets in the coming months is:<b>1）</b>The yield of long-term U.S. bonds has entered a fluctuating period, with a fluctuating range of 3.2~3.5%;<b>2）</b>The yield of short-end U.S. bonds continues to fall, and the inversion of long-and short-end bonds narrows;<b>3）</b>U.S. stocks started the last drop in killing performance;<b>4）</b>the US Dollar Index or fluctuate in the range of 100-103;<b>5）</b>The above factors have certain negative disturbances to RMB-denominated assets.</p><p><b>Risk warning:</b></p><p>The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, the US economy and inflation situation exceeded expectations, and the global epidemic situation exceeded expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1655347333395","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks are soaring, but there is a hidden \"devil\"! What happened?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks are soaring, but there is a hidden \"devil\"! What happened?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">招商宏观静思录</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-02-02 10:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The Fed's price policy affects short-term U.S. debt, while its quantitative policy affects medium-and long-term U.S. debt. Overseas assets have fully priced the convergence of the Fed's rate hike and even the end of the rate hike, but the shrinking balance sheet shock has not yet reacted. Previously, overseas markets were in the best combination: the U.S. economy has not yet declined, and the yield of 10Y U.S. bonds has dropped sharply; The next few months may face the worst combination: the U.S. economy begins to decline, and the 10Y U.S. bond yield remains indifferent.</b></p><p><b>Continue to slow down rate hike, the dovish interpretation of the market is slightly inappropriate: 1)</b>The Federal Reserve announced a rate hike of 25BP and maintained the $95 billion/month shrinking balance sheet plan, in line with market expectations.<b>2）</b>Continuing to slow down rate hike is related to two factors: inflation has eased; Interest rate-sensitive sectors have reacted to rate hike, but there is a lagging effect of monetary policy, which has not yet been fully manifested and needs to be observed.<b>3）</b>The Fed's operation did not exceed the market expectations before the meeting, and the dovish interpretation may be slightly inappropriate. Before the announcement of the Fed's interest rate resolution, the market's expectation for the Fed's operation was that this interest rate meeting would be 25BP in rate hike, 25BP in March, and then the rate hike would be stopped. From November to December, the Fed would start to consider cutting interest rates. While admitting that inflation is slowing down, Powell also expressed the consideration that inflation is still high and the job market is still resilient, and has not yet mentioned the timing of ending the shrinking balance sheet. In other words, there will be at least one rate hike in the future. This Fed's interest rate meeting has fulfilled the market expectations before the meeting at most.</p><p><b>Back to the economic fundamentals itself: 1) Short-term employment and economic data both exceeded the Fed's previous expectations.</b>The Federal Reserve's December FOMC economic outlook predicts that 2022Q4 U.S. real GDP will grow by 0.50% year-on-year, and the published value will be 0.96%; In December, the Fed expected the unemployment rate to rebound to 3.7%, but it was actually 3.5%. As long as the economic data does not take a sharp turn for the worse in the short term, the Fed does not need to signal more easing.<b>2) However, in the medium term, enterprise costs have plummeted, ISM non-manufacturing PMI has fallen below the boom-bust line, and the cyclical recession of the US economy is approaching.</b>We fitted the comprehensive average cost index of American enterprises with the weights of financing cost, raw material cost and labor cost. Since 1970s, this index has dropped rapidly from its high level eight times, and only after 2011Q3, the United States has not experienced negative economic growth. The metric peaked in 2022Q2 and retreated rapidly in 2022Q3-Q4, signaling the beginning of a slowdown in aggregate U.S. demand. In addition, since the late 1990s, the non-manufacturing PMI of ISM in the United States has only fallen below the boom-bust line during the economic recession. In December, this indicator was only 49.6, which also indicates the recession risk of the United States economy.</p><p><b>The shrinking balance sheet shock seems to be showing: the most comfortable days are over, and the worst combinations have surfaced. 1) The \"demon\" hidden in the details:</b>M2 turned negative year-on-year, for the first time since 1959. Although it will accelerate the decline of inflation, it is also the result of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet. It can be seen that the Fed's shrinking balance sheet has influenced economic factors by affecting money injection and credit derivation.<b>2) Under the dual constraints of shrinking balance sheet and non-US central banks reducing their holdings of US bonds, it is more difficult for the 10-year US bond yield center to move further downward.</b>In the past three months or so, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds dropped from 4.25% to 3.39%, which indicates that the market has taken more into account the impact of cooling economic factors. However, the impact of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet and non-U.S. central banks' reduction of U.S. bonds and the future increase of the debt ceiling on the supply and demand structure of long-term U.S. bonds has not been fully reflected. Although it is difficult for the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds to recover during the economic recession, the continuous reduction of U.S. bonds by the Federal Reserve and non-U.S. central banks also makes the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds not much room for decline for the time being.</p><p><b>In the past quarter, the best combination appeared in the United States: the economy has not yet declined, and the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds has dropped sharply; But the next few months may face the worst combination: the economy begins to decline, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury remains indifferent. Based on this, our judgment on each class of assets is as follows: 1)</b>The yield of 10-year U.S. bonds has entered a fluctuating period, with a fluctuating range of 3.2~3.5%;<b>2）</b>The yield of 2-year U.S. bonds continued to fall, and the inversion of the long and short ends narrowed;<b>3）</b>U.S. stocks started the last drop in killing performance;<b>4）</b>the US Dollar Index or fluctuate in the range of 100-103;<b>5）</b>The above factors have certain negative disturbances to RMB-denominated assets, but internal factors are still the core contradictions of RMB-denominated assets.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>I.</b><b>Continue to slow down rate hike, market dovish interpretation</b></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve announced a rate hike of 25BP and maintained the $95 billion/month shrinking balance sheet plan, in line with market expectations.</b>The Federal Reserve issued a statement at the February interest rate meeting, raising the target interest rate of federal funds by 25BP to the range of 4.50%-4.75%, and said that it would maintain the shrinking balance sheet rhythm of reducing U.S. bonds by $60 billion/month and MBS by $35 billion/month since September.</p><p><b>Combined with Powell's speech, the Fed's continued slowdown rate hike is related to two factors: 1)</b>Acknowledging that inflation has eased (the FOMC's statement in December was that inflation remains high);<b>2）</b>Interest-rate sensitive sectors such as real estate have reacted to rate hike, but the lagging effects of monetary policy on economic activity, inflation and financial development have not yet been fully manifested and need to be observed.</p><p><b>The market interpreted it as dovish, but there seems to be a risk of difference in expectations.</b>After the interest rate meeting, especially after Powell's speech, the yield of U.S. bonds dropped significantly, U.S. stocks rose sharply, and gold also performed to a certain extent. It seems that the market interpreted the Fed's continuous slowdown of rate hike as dovish. But<b>The Fed's operation did not exceed the market expectations before the meeting, and the dovish interpretation may be slightly inappropriate.</b>Before the announcement of the Fed's interest rate resolution on February 1st, the market's expectation for the Fed's operation was that the rate hike of this interest rate meeting would be 25BP, and the interest rate would be raised by 25BP in March. Then the rate hike would be stopped. From November to December, the Fed would start to consider cutting interest rates. After the announcement of the statement, while admitting that inflation is slowing down, Powell also expressed the consideration that inflation is still high and the job market is still resilient, and has not yet mentioned the timing of ending the shrinking balance sheet. In other words, there will be at least one rate hike in the future (if the data is still strong, the possibility of more rate hike is not ruled out, although this possibility is not high). This Fed's interest rate meeting has fulfilled the market expectations before the meeting at most.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d7fa88496368b596b721f5d20e5ada3\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Regarding the future prospects of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, we have three understandings: 1) The rhythm of the Federal Reserve's policy will have certain political considerations, which will inevitably be targeted.</b>After the midterm elections, the Federal Reserve began to slow down. rate hike confirmed the view that we have always emphasized since the end of August last year that \"the midterm elections are the watershed of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy\", and it can be seen that the rhythm of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has certain political considerations. Looking back, the timing of interest rate cuts will probably choose the most critical time window for the economy and politics, instead of releasing the signal of interest rate cuts immediately after the end of the rate hike.<b>2) When rate hike is coming to an end, it is most likely to generate a difference in expectations, and Powell is worried about doing too little.</b>Whether more (rate hike) or less (rate hike) depends entirely on high-frequency data. In his answer to reporter's question, Powell even stressed that the policy risk is that \"doing too little has not effectively controlled inflation\". If the U.S. employment data does not weaken significantly in the next 1-2 months, then not only is the landing of the 25BP rate hike in March a certainty, but the market may even revise the expectation that the rate hike will end after March and the interest rate cut will begin in Q4.<b>3) Market attention is about to turn to shrinking balance sheet.</b>From the experience of 2018-2019, between the end of the rate hike and the start of interest rate cuts, the Fed still needs to end its shrinking balance sheet at a timely time. If the market does not misjudge the Fed's price policy, the attention of the follow-up market will turn to the influence of shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><b>Furthermore, we need to answer three questions: What will be the impact of the Fed's shrinking? Has it been fully digested by the market? When will the U.S. economy need a Fed rate cut?</b></p><p><b>II.</b><b>Back to the economy itself: short-term beat-expectations, but approaching recession</b></p><p><b>Short-term employment and economic data both exceeded the Fed's previous expectations.</b>The Federal Reserve's December FOMC economic outlook predicts that 2022Q4 U.S. real GDP will grow by 0.50% year-on-year, but the final published value is 0.96%; The December economic outlook also expects the unemployment rate to rebound to 3.7% by the end of the year, which is actually 3.5%. In other words, the short-term strength of the US economy is even better than the Fed's assessment, so as long as there is no sharp turn for the worse in the short term, the Fed does not need to give a looser signal. The market's current risk appetite seems to be overdone.</p><p><b>However, in the medium term, corporate costs have plummeted, ISM non-manufacturing PMI has fallen below the boom-bust line, and the cyclical recession of the US economy is approaching.</b>Although we pointed out in our report \"The Resilience of the U.S. Economy and Implications for China's Liberalization\" dated December 28, 2022, in the context of labor shortage in the past two years, low-and middle-income groups with low educational background and lack of work experience before the epidemic were more likely to get high-paid jobs after the epidemic, thus enhancing the resilience of employment, consumption and economic data. But that doesn't prevent a cyclical recession coming to the U.S. economy. We fitted the comprehensive average cost index of American enterprises with the weights of financing cost, raw material cost and labor cost. Since 1970s, this index has dropped rapidly from its high level eight times, and the eight vertices appeared in 1974Q4, 1981Q2, 1990Q4, 2001Q3, 2008Q3, 2011Q3 and 2022Q2 respectively. Previously, after the comprehensive average cost index of American enterprises peaked and fell rapidly, only after 2011Q3, the United States did not experience negative economic growth, and the remaining six times, the United States economy all experienced negative economic growth. This reflects that slowing aggregate demand is the end of rate hike crushing inflation. The metric peaked in 2022Q2 and retreated rapidly in 2022Q3-Q4, signaling the beginning of a slowdown in aggregate U.S. demand. In addition, since the late 1990s, the non-manufacturing PMI of ISM in the United States has only fallen below the boom-bust line during the economic recession. In December, this indicator was only 49.6, which also indicates the recession risk of the United States economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d20bbbc291c206368453d04800c27ebf\" tg-width=\"1029\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd4071d0394b02a49b498cb9d78e97be\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Third, the shrinking balance sheet shock seems to be showing: the most comfortable days are over, and the worst combinations have surfaced</b></p><p><b>The \"devil\" hidden in the details: M2 turned negative year-on-year, which will accelerate the decline of inflation, but it is also the result of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet.</b>In 2020H2, there were concerns about high inflation in the United States in the market. The main logic is that M2 experienced a rare double-digit growth year-on-year. In February 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was as high as 26.9%, the highest since data was available. Not surprisingly, from 2021H2 to 2022H1, the U.S. CPI rose as rapidly and sharply as a wild horse, with a high point of 9.1%, the highest since November 1981. U.S. M2 declined to-1.3% year-on-year in December 2022, turning negative for the first time since 1959.</p><p>If the high level of M2 in the United States contributes to inflation after the epidemic, then the year-on-year negative turn of M2 theoretically means that inflation in the United States may fall more than expected, quickly and sharply. This conclusion supports the Fed's quick end of rate hike. But the question is why the year-on-year growth rate of M2 turned negative? The answer is Fed shrinking balance sheet. As shown in the chart below, each massive Fed balance sheet-sized shock exacerbates the year-over-year M2 volatility. In March 2021, when the year-on-year growth rate of M2 fell from the high point, it just corresponded to the inflection point of the Fed's balance sheet expansion rate. After the Fed ended its balance sheet expansion, the M2 in the United States plummeted sharply, while the M2 turned negative with the same increase was probably the result of shrinking balance sheet. In other words, the Fed's shrinking balance sheet has influenced economic factors by influencing money injection and credit derivation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62ce38069d10ff6a66f708905f4b18f2\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e15a7381a19ae0e1c4f36426f6a813\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The Fed's price-based instruments affect the yield of U.S. bonds with a maturity of 2 years or less, while the quantitative instruments affect the yield of U.S. bonds with a maturity of 10 years or more. At present, it is more difficult for the 10-year U.S. bond yield center to move further downward.</b>Theoretically, under the background of increasing downward risks of economic recession and inflation, the yield center of 10-year U.S. bonds should move further downward, approaching 3% or even lower. But supply and demand are likely to counter this trend. First of all, the Fed's rate hike and interest rate cuts affect the short-term U.S. bond yield more, but not the long-term, but quantitative tools such as QE and shrinking balance sheet directly affect the long-term U.S. bond yield through changes in supply and demand. In addition, long-term US debt demand factors also include non-US central banks increasing or decreasing US debt holdings. The 2022 10-year U.S. Treasury yield high of 4.25% was significantly higher than our expectations at the beginning of last year, but this was not driven by the Fed's rate hike, but the result of economic factors (including high inflation), the Fed's shrinking balance sheet and the resonance of non-U.S. central bank reductions in U.S. debt. In the past three months or so, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds dropped from 4.25% to 3.39%, which indicates that the market has taken more into account the impact of cooling economic factors. However, the impact of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet and non-U.S. central banks' reduction of U.S. bonds and the future increase of the debt ceiling on the supply and demand structure of long-term U.S. bonds has not been fully reflected. Although it is difficult for the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds to recover during the economic recession, the continuous reduction of U.S. bonds by the Federal Reserve and non-U.S. central banks also makes the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds not much room for decline for the time being.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77f03d31965149c1bc8626adce4e6175\" tg-width=\"1009\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>It can be seen that the best combination appeared in the United States in the past quarter: the economy has not yet declined, and the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds has dropped sharply; However, in the next 1-2 quarters, the United States may face the worst combination: the economy begins to decline, and the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds remains indifferent.</b></p><p><b>Fourth, the last decline of U.S. stocks may kick off</b></p><p>In the second half of last year, we have been saying that the U.S. stock market will have the last decline caused by killing performance, but it has never happened. The reason is that the resilience of the U.S. economy still exists and the market has early taken into account the expectation of the Fed's monetary policy shift. In particular, the rebound of U.S. stocks in the past quarter just reflects that \"the economy has not yet declined, and the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds has dropped sharply\". Therefore, the 10-year Schiller cycle-adjusted P/E (CAPE) of the S&P 500 index has returned to a record high of 29.92 times. If, as we expected, the U.S. financial market environment will face the worst combination in the next 1-2 quarters, \"the economy begins to decline, and the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds is constrained by factors such as the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet and the center is difficult to move further downward\", then the U.S. stock market is bound to start the last drop in performance.</p><p>Based on this, our judgment on various types of assets in the coming months is:<b>1）</b>The yield of long-term U.S. bonds has entered a fluctuating period, with a fluctuating range of 3.2~3.5%;<b>2）</b>The yield of short-end U.S. bonds continues to fall, and the inversion of long-and short-end bonds narrows;<b>3）</b>U.S. stocks started the last drop in killing performance;<b>4）</b>the US Dollar Index or fluctuate in the range of 100-103;<b>5）</b>The above factors have certain negative disturbances to RMB-denominated assets.</p><p><b>Risk warning:</b></p><p>The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, the US economy and inflation situation exceeded expectations, and the global epidemic situation exceeded expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r4uvMuadJSAvwYYod3SbBA\">招商宏观静思录</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r4uvMuadJSAvwYYod3SbBA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115990913","content_text":"美联储价格型政策影响短端美债，数量型政策影响中长端美债。海外资产对美联储加息收敛乃至结束加息的定价已充分，但缩表冲击尚未反应。此前海外市场处于最佳组合：美国经济尚未衰退、10Y美债收益率大幅回落；未来数月或将面临最差组合：美国经济开始衰退、10Y美债收益率反而无动于衷。继续降速加息，市场的鸽派解读略显不妥：1）美联储宣布加息25BP，维持950亿美元/月缩表计划，符合市场预期。2）继续降速加息与两点因素有关：通胀有所缓和；利率敏感部门已经对加息做出反应，但货币政策存在滞后影响，尚未充分显现，需要观察。3）美联储操作并未超出会议前的市场预期，鸽派解读恐怕略显不妥。美联储议息决议公布前，市场对于美联储的操作预期就是本次议息会议加息25BP、3月加息25BP，随后停止加息，11-12月美联储将开始考虑降息。鲍威尔在承认通胀放缓之余，亦表达了通胀仍高、就业市场仍有韧性等考虑，并且尚未提及结束缩表的时机，换言之，未来至少还会加息1次，本次美联储议息会议最多是兑现了会前的市场预期。回到经济基本面本身：1）短期就业与经济数据均超美联储此前预期。美联储12月FOMC经济展望预计2022Q4美国实际GDP同比增速为0.50%，公布值为0.96%；12月美联储预期失业率反弹至3.7%，实际为3.5%。只要短期内经济数据没有急转直下，美联储就无须给出更宽松信号。2）但中期来看，企业成本骤降、ISM非制造业PMI跌破荣枯线，美国经济的周期性衰退正在逼近。我们用融资成本、原材料成本与人力成本等权重拟合了美国企业综合平均成本指数，70年代以来该指标有8次自高位快速回落，只有2011Q3后美国未现经济负增长。2022Q2该指标见顶后2022Q3-Q4快速回落，预示了美国总需求开始放缓。此外，90年代末以来美国ISM非制造业PMI仅在经济衰退阶段才会跌破荣枯线，12月该指标仅为49.6，亦预示了美国经济的衰退风险。缩表冲击似乎正在显现：最舒服的日子已过，最差组合浮出水面。1）藏在细节中的“恶魔”：M2同比转负，为1959年以来首次，虽将加速通胀回落、但亦是联储缩表结果。可见，美联储缩表已经通过影响货币投放和信用派生对经济因素产生影响。2）缩表与非美央行减持美债双重约束下，10年期美债收益率中枢进一步下移难度增加。过去三个多月10年期美债收益率自4.25%降至3.39%表明市场更多地计入了经济因素降温的影响，但美联储缩表和非美央行减持美债以及未来上调债务上限对长端美债供需结构的影响尚未充分反应。尽管在经济衰退过程中，10年期美债收益率很难回升，但美联储及非美央行持续减持美债的动作也令10年期美债收益率暂时没有太多下降空间。过去1个季度美国出现了最佳组合：经济尚未衰退、10年期美债收益率大幅回落；但未来数月或将面临最差组合：经济开始衰退、10年期美债收益率反而无动于衷。基于此，我们对于各类资产的判断如下：1）10年期美债收益率进入波动期，波动区间或在3.2~3.5%；2）2年期美债收益率继续回落，长短端倒挂收窄；3）美股开启杀业绩的最后一跌；4）美元指数或在100-103区间波动；5）上述因素对于人民币计价资产存在一定负面扰动，但内因仍是人民币计价资产的核心矛盾。正文一、继续降速加息，市场鸽派解读美联储宣布加息25BP，维持950亿美元/月缩表计划，符合市场预期。美联储发布2月议息会议声明，上调联邦基金目标利率25BP至4.50%-4.75%区间，并表示维持9月以来减持600亿美元/月美债和350亿美元/月MBS的缩表节奏不变。结合鲍威尔讲话来看，美联储本次继续降速加息与两点因素有关：1）承认通胀有所缓和（12月FOMC的表态是通胀仍居高不下）；2）房地产等利率敏感部门已经对加息做出反应，但货币政策对经济活动、通胀和金融发展存在滞后影响，尚未充分显现，需要观察。市场解读为鸽派，但似乎存在预期差风险。议息会议后，特别是鲍威尔讲话后，美债收益率明显回落、美股大涨、黄金也有一定表现，看上去市场将美联储连续减速加息解读为鸽派。但美联储操作并未超出会议前的市场预期，鸽派解读恐怕略显不妥。2月1日美联储议息决议公布前，市场对于美联储的操作预期就是本次议息会议加息25BP、3月加息25BP，随后停止加息，11-12月美联储将开始考虑降息。在声明公布后，鲍威尔在承认通胀放缓之余，亦表达了通胀仍高、就业市场仍有韧性等考虑，并且尚未提及结束缩表的时机，换言之，未来至少还会加息1次（如果数据仍强劲，不排除更多次加息的可能性，尽管这一可能性不高），本次美联储议息会议最多是兑现了会前的市场预期。关于美联储货币政策未来前景，我们有三点理解：1）美联储政策节奏会有一定政治考量，必然会有的放矢。中期选举后美联储就开始减速加息印证了去年8月底以来我们始终强调的观点“中期选举是美联储货币政策的分水岭”，并且由此可见，美联储货币政策节奏带有一定政治考量。往后看，降息时机大概率会选择对经济和政治最为关键的时间窗口，而不会在刚刚结束加息之际就立马释放降息信号。2）加息即将结束之际，最容易产生预期差，鲍威尔担心做得过少。多（加息）一点还是少（加息）一点完全取决于高频数据，鲍威尔在答记者问中甚至强调政策风险是“做得过少并未有效控制通胀”。假若未来1-2个月美国就业数据仍未明显转弱，那么不仅3月落地25BP加息是板上钉钉，市场甚至可能会修正3月后结束加息、Q4开始降息的预期。3）市场注意力即将转向缩表。从2018-2019年的经验看，在结束加息、开始降息之间，美联储还需要择时结束缩表，如果市场对美联储价格型政策没有误判，那么后续市场的注意力就会转向缩表影响。进而，我们需要回答三个问题：美联储缩表会有什么影响？是否已经被市场充分消化？美国经济何时需要联储降息？二、先回到经济本身：短期超预期，但正逼近衰退短期就业与经济数据均超美联储此前预期。美联储12月FOMC经济展望预计2022Q4美国实际GDP同比增速为0.50%，但最终公布值为0.96%；12月经济展望同时预期失业率年底反弹至3.7%，实际为3.5%。换言之，美国经济短期强劲程度甚至好于美联储的评估，那么只要短期内没有急转直下，美联储就无须给出更宽松信号。市场目前的风险偏好似乎有些过度了。但中期来看，企业成本骤降、ISM非制造业PMI跌破荣枯线，美国经济的周期性衰退正在逼近。尽管我们在22年12月28日报告《美国经济的韧性及对中国放开后的启示》中指出，过去两年在劳动力短缺背景下，疫前低教育背景、缺乏工作经验的中低收入群体在疫后更容易获得高薪职位进而增强了就业、消费与经济数据的韧性。但这并不妨碍美国经济即将迎来一次周期性衰退。我们用融资成本、原材料成本与人力成本等权重拟合了美国企业综合平均成本指数，70年代以来该指标有8次自高位快速回落，8个顶点分别出现在1974Q4、1981Q2、1990Q4、2001Q3、2008Q3、2011Q3以及2022Q2。此前，美国企业综合平均成本指数见顶快速回落后只有2011Q3后美国未现经济负增长，其余6次美国经济均现负增长。这反映了总需求放缓才是加息打压通胀的终点。2022Q2该指标见顶后2022Q3-Q4快速回落，预示了美国总需求开始放缓。此外，90年代末以来美国ISM非制造业PMI仅在经济衰退阶段才会跌破荣枯线，12月该指标仅为49.6，亦预示了美国经济的衰退风险。三、缩表冲击似乎正在显现：最舒服的日子已过，最差组合浮出水面藏在细节中的“恶魔”：M2同比转负，虽将加速通胀回落、但亦是联储缩表结果。2020H2市场中出现了担忧美国高通胀的声音，主要逻辑就是M2同比出现了罕见的两位数增长，2021年2月M2同比增幅更是高达26.9%，为有数据以来最高。不出意外，2021H2-2022H1美国CPI同比如脱缰野马般快速、大幅攀升，高点曾达到9.1%，为1981年11月后最高。2022年12月美国M2同增降至-1.3%，为1959年以来首次转负。假若疫后美国M2的高企助长了通胀，那么M2同比转负理论上意味着美国通胀可能会超预期、快速、大幅回落，这一结论支持美联储快速结束加息。但问题在于M2同比增速为何会转负？答案是美联储缩表。如下图所示，每次美联储资产负债表规模的巨震都会加剧M2同比波动。2021年3月M2同比增速自高点回落之际刚好对应着美联储扩表速率拐点，美联储结束扩表后美国M2同增骤降、而M2同增转负则大概率是缩表的结果。换言之，美联储缩表已经通过影响货币投放和信用派生对经济因素产生影响。美联储价格型工具影响2年及以下期限美债收益率、数量型工具则影响10年及以上期限美债收益率，目前看10年期美债收益率中枢进一步下移难度增加。理论上，在经济衰退与通胀下行风险双增的背景下，10年期美债收益率中枢应该进一步下移、逼近3%甚至更低水平。但供需关系可能会对抗这一趋势。首先，美联储加息与降息更多地影响短端美债收益率，不直接影响长端，但QE与缩表等数量型工具则通过供需变化直接影响长端美债收益率。此外，长端美债需求因素还包括非美央行增减持美债行为。2022年10年期美债收益率高点为4.25%，显著高于我们去年初的预期，但这并非联储加息驱动，而是由经济因素（包括高通胀）、美联储缩表与非美央行减持美债共振的结果。过去三个多月10年期美债收益率自4.25%降至3.39%表明市场更多地计入了经济因素降温的影响，但美联储缩表和非美央行减持美债以及未来上调债务上限对长端美债供需结构的影响尚未充分反应。尽管在经济衰退过程中，10年期美债收益率很难回升，但美联储及非美央行持续减持美债的动作也令10年期美债收益率暂时没有太多下降空间。由此可见，过去1个季度美国出现了最佳组合：经济尚未衰退、10年期美债收益率大幅回落；但未来1-2个季度美国或将面临最差组合：经济开始衰退、10年期美债收益率反而无动于衷。四、美股最后一跌或将拉开帷幕去年下半年我们一直在说美股会出现杀业绩引发的最后一跌，但一直没有出现，原因就在于美国经济韧性尚存且市场早早计入了联储货币政策转向预期。特别是过去一个季度美股的反弹恰好映射了“经济尚未衰退、10年期美债收益率大幅回落”，因此，标普500指数的10年期席勒周期调整市盈率（CAPE）重回29.92倍的历史高位。假若如我们所预计的，未来1-2个季度美国金融市场环境将面临最差组合“经济开始衰退，10年期美债收益率反而受联储缩表等因素约束中枢难以进一步下移”，那么，美股势必开启杀业绩的最后一跌。基于此，我们对于未来数月各类资产的判断是：1）长端美债收益率进入波动期，波动区间或在3.2~3.5%；2）短端美债收益率继续回落，长短端倒挂收窄；3）美股开启杀业绩的最后一跌；4）美元指数或在100-103区间波动；5）上述因素对于人民币计价资产存在一定负面扰动。风险提示：美联储货币政策，美经济与通胀形势超预期，全球疫情超预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3219,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955855520,"gmtCreate":1675351077660,"gmtModify":1676538995884,"author":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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$ &nbsp;</a>good👍🏻","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$ &nbsp;</a>good👍🏻","text":"$奈飞(NFLX)$ good👍🏻","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fc52ed66048b6e101a3596b624454da7","width":"1440","height":"2932"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955855520","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3558,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9939904146,"gmtCreate":1662037562188,"gmtModify":1676536681716,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581989768565324","idStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$标普500(.SPX)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939904146","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3067,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9033066245,"gmtCreate":1646158170036,"gmtModify":1676534096783,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581989768565324","idStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"💰💰","listText":"💰💰","text":"💰💰","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9033066245","repostId":"2108576110","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2108576110","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1646139606,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2108576110?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-01 21:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"How to get rid of the strange circle of \"small profit and big loss\"? Position management is key","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2108576110","media":"金十数据","summary":"很多交易者进入市场总会经历“小赚大亏”的阶段，资金曲线在这个阶段的表现也是小涨急跌，更有甚者会是一路下跌，没有任何反弹的迹象。那这样一个让人沮丧的阶段该如何度过呢？怎么打破在“小赚大亏”中资金被消磨殆","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Many traders will always experience the stage of \"small profits and big losses\" when they enter the market. The performance of the capital curve at this stage is also slightly rising and falling sharply, and even more, it will fall all the way without any sign of rebound. So how do you get through such a frustrating phase? How to break the strange phenomenon that funds are exhausted in \"small profits and big losses\"? Maybe it can give you some insight from the perspective of position management. Position management is usually called \"fund management\" in general. Although this reference is not rigorous, it can be used generally in the trading circle in many cases. So what is position management? Just as the name suggests is to manage the position in your hand. The maximum number of positions that your account funds can support is your full position, and the ratio of the number of positions you actually hold to the number of full positions is the so-called position ratio. In Baidu Encyclopedia, the definition of this is: in the risk market, the risk is controlled by limiting the proportion of single investment.</p><p>Through the above expression, everyone should have a more accurate understanding of \"position management\". Let's start from<b>The Necessity of Position Management, How to Manage Position, and the Mentality in Position Management</b>Three aspects to explain how to solve the problem of \"small profit and big loss\" from this level.</p><p>Importance and Necessity of Position Management</p><p>The premise of studying position management must be that the trading methods are consistent, and one or several combinations of fixed forms are used to participate in the market, otherwise position management will lose its significance, which needs to be said before. The reason is simple, just like you are playing poker, the criteria for each fold and raise should be consistent, otherwise who can say for sure if you will only raise a small bet when you win and place a heavy bet when you lose.</p><p>No one can accurately predict what kind of state the market will be at some point in the future, and what kind of price it will be. Even if someone does it in the short term, it must be confused. Don't trust anyone who claims to be able to predict the market when fighting in the market. In this way, the uncertainty of the market is obvious in front of us. Since the market can never predict, is there any reason for you to use all your funds for positions?</p><p>At this point, you may say, how can you make enough profit without holding heavily? One thing you need to note is that risk and profit coexist. You amplify the possibility of chasing profit, and at the same time untie the ropes that bind risk. Especially in the novice stage, unrestrained investment in the absence of a way to guarantee the winning rate is undoubtedly one of the fastest ways to explode.</p><p>Position management is a preventive measure about risks, not a means for you to chase profits, just like the quote from Baidu Encyclopedia at the beginning of the article. Many successful predecessors often tell us that we can only make heavy positions in fairly certain circumstances, and even this is based on the premise of making stop loss preparations in advance. After all, survival is the important support for making profits in the market.</p><p>It can be seen that position management is essential in the market game. You can never go wrong with investing in smaller positions before you can't interpret market signals well and establish a sound trading system. Although it can't let you get rid of the \"small profit\" for the time being, the position management with stop loss can at least help you intercept the \"big loss\", which is a landmark victory in the whole process of trading: your funds finally stop flowing out a lot.</p><p>Second, how to manage positions?</p><p>If these mentioned above are the so-called \"worldview\", then let's discuss the \"methodology\" of position management in this part. First of all, there is one thing that everyone needs to understand: position control can't solve the problem of low winning rate. It just makes traders die slowly, so that they have enough time and opportunity to get their own wave of market prices. It can be seen that position management cannot be discussed separately, but should be combined with the time period, psychological endurance and the basis of entry and exit of each person's trading.</p><p>For example, trend traders usually don't win too much, but the profit-loss ratio is quite large. This requires strict control of positions to reduce the cost of trial orders when conducting trend trading. Once the trial orders are successful and profitable, they should constantly increase their positions to improve their profit-loss ratio to make up for the disadvantages of low winning rate. Short-term traders rely on high winning rate and low profit-loss ratio to achieve profits, so they need to improve their capital utilization rate to maximize their profits. Of course, the stop loss of short-term traders is very strict, which reduces the risk caused by heavy positions at another level.</p><p>The purpose of position management is to cut off losses and let profits run. In order to achieve this purpose, some principles need to be followed:</p><p>1. Never put all your money in the market. Especially in the novice stage or in a state of \"small profit and big loss\" for a long time, putting all the funds into the market will not only enlarge the losses, but also affect the mentality of traders to a certain extent. Of course, short-term traders can try to attack heavily when the stop loss is firm and the profit-loss ratio is reasonable, but it is necessary to ensure that the entry of the same standard is to open the same position, otherwise it is very likely to appear<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06838\">When profitable</a>Light warehouse, the embarrassing situation of heavy warehouse when losing money.</p><p>2. It is normal for accidental continuous losses in transactions. Position management must ensure that after continuous losses, the remaining funds can open positions with the same number of lots. If this principle cannot be followed, it is very likely that 100 lots could have been opened, but only 90 lots could have been opened after several consecutive losses. It will be more difficult for 90 lots to return the funds to the original level than 100 lots.</p><p>3. There should be a scientific strategy of adding and reducing positions. Although trading is a game of probability from a mathematical point of view, it is by no means a static model. The constantly changing market is likely to have a market trend that lets us add or lighten positions after we enter the market once. At this time, your winning rate and profit-loss ratio are also changing, which requires your position management, including adding or lightening positions.</p><p>Is there a general rule for specific position management that is accurate to numbers? For example, what percentage of positions must be opened, and under what circumstances, what percentage of positions should be added or lightened? Unfortunately, no! As I have said at the beginning of this part, position management should be designed in combination with personal entry and exit basis and psychological endurance. Here we can only provide you with an idea. Everyone needs to complete the position management strategy according to their own relevant data.</p><p>What data or reference items do you need to set your own position management strategy? I've made the following statistics here for your reference:</p><p>1. Your own risk appetite. You have to determine whether you are radical or conservative. What is the acceptable loss you can accept every time? These losses correspond to the number of stop loss points in your trading system. The acceptable loss is the amount of loss you can bear at one point compared with the upper stop loss point. These amounts are the number of lots you open in a single entry compared with the fluctuating price of each point in a single hand.</p><p>2. The winning rate of trading techniques. Your position management must be determined in combination with the winning rate that trading techniques can provide, so as to ensure that your funds can survive the loss part under the normal proportion of profit and loss times.</p><p>3. The risk-reward ratio of the transaction is the so-called profit-loss ratio. Winning rate and profit-loss ratio are a pair of twins, which I have mentioned in many previous articles. With the cooperation of winning rate and profit-loss ratio, your position management must be able to resist the \"worst period\" in trading, otherwise you will die tragically in the dark night before dawn before you reach the dawn in your own trading system.</p><p>In conclusion, position management is not an independent static part, it is an integral part of the whole trading system. We have only discussed position management and all aspects related to it above, but it is not that the trading system is just that. The entry and exit strategy and position management in the trading system complement each other, and both are indispensable.</p><p>3. Mentality Problems in Position Management</p><p>The first two parts tell you the \"worldview\" and \"methodology\" of position management respectively, and the next is the problem of consciousness. Before the problems in the above two parts are solved, the mentality must not be able to cope well. If your position management has been inspired by the above sections or has solved previous problems, then the problem of mentality is relatively easier.</p><p>There are only two kinds of mentalities that often appear in position management: when making money, it would be nice if I could have worked with a full warehouse; When losing money, if only I could have tried it lightly. Of course, there will also be such things as do you want to add positions? Add a position and take a gamble! Or do you want to lighten your position? Forget it, let's quickly lighten your position and run away, but the latter is a derivative of the former.</p><p>When managing positions, the best state is to carry out them completely according to the designed management mode, without any subjective factors. This is easy to say, but it is not that easy to do, so what to do?</p><p>There is no shortcut, that is, make the management strategy of the position and other parts of the matching trading system as detailed as possible, and don't give yourself any room for subjective reverie.</p><p>Note that this is not to let you make the trading system complicated, but to tell everyone to make the trading system as simple as possible fixed and careful as possible. For example, if a certain operation is based on an interval, then turn this interval into a certain value, or try to compress the range of the interval to find the certainty in the system. Only in this way can you firmly lock your heart with rules.</p><p>However, rules still rely on discipline to complete the enforcement, so we must abide by the discipline that has been established, even if we use the self-reward and punishment mechanism.</p><p>The position management is coming to an end here. I hope you can get some ideas about position management from it, which will certainly be beneficial to everyone's trading road. Finally, I hope everyone trades smoothly and takes all rises and falls.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to get rid of the strange circle of \"small profit and big loss\"? Position management is key</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to get rid of the strange circle of \"small profit and big loss\"? Position management is key\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-01 21:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Many traders will always experience the stage of \"small profits and big losses\" when they enter the market. The performance of the capital curve at this stage is also slightly rising and falling sharply, and even more, it will fall all the way without any sign of rebound. So how do you get through such a frustrating phase? How to break the strange phenomenon that funds are exhausted in \"small profits and big losses\"? Maybe it can give you some insight from the perspective of position management. Position management is usually called \"fund management\" in general. Although this reference is not rigorous, it can be used generally in the trading circle in many cases. So what is position management? Just as the name suggests is to manage the position in your hand. The maximum number of positions that your account funds can support is your full position, and the ratio of the number of positions you actually hold to the number of full positions is the so-called position ratio. In Baidu Encyclopedia, the definition of this is: in the risk market, the risk is controlled by limiting the proportion of single investment.</p><p>Through the above expression, everyone should have a more accurate understanding of \"position management\". Let's start from<b>The Necessity of Position Management, How to Manage Position, and the Mentality in Position Management</b>Three aspects to explain how to solve the problem of \"small profit and big loss\" from this level.</p><p>Importance and Necessity of Position Management</p><p>The premise of studying position management must be that the trading methods are consistent, and one or several combinations of fixed forms are used to participate in the market, otherwise position management will lose its significance, which needs to be said before. The reason is simple, just like you are playing poker, the criteria for each fold and raise should be consistent, otherwise who can say for sure if you will only raise a small bet when you win and place a heavy bet when you lose.</p><p>No one can accurately predict what kind of state the market will be at some point in the future, and what kind of price it will be. Even if someone does it in the short term, it must be confused. Don't trust anyone who claims to be able to predict the market when fighting in the market. In this way, the uncertainty of the market is obvious in front of us. Since the market can never predict, is there any reason for you to use all your funds for positions?</p><p>At this point, you may say, how can you make enough profit without holding heavily? One thing you need to note is that risk and profit coexist. You amplify the possibility of chasing profit, and at the same time untie the ropes that bind risk. Especially in the novice stage, unrestrained investment in the absence of a way to guarantee the winning rate is undoubtedly one of the fastest ways to explode.</p><p>Position management is a preventive measure about risks, not a means for you to chase profits, just like the quote from Baidu Encyclopedia at the beginning of the article. Many successful predecessors often tell us that we can only make heavy positions in fairly certain circumstances, and even this is based on the premise of making stop loss preparations in advance. After all, survival is the important support for making profits in the market.</p><p>It can be seen that position management is essential in the market game. You can never go wrong with investing in smaller positions before you can't interpret market signals well and establish a sound trading system. Although it can't let you get rid of the \"small profit\" for the time being, the position management with stop loss can at least help you intercept the \"big loss\", which is a landmark victory in the whole process of trading: your funds finally stop flowing out a lot.</p><p>Second, how to manage positions?</p><p>If these mentioned above are the so-called \"worldview\", then let's discuss the \"methodology\" of position management in this part. First of all, there is one thing that everyone needs to understand: position control can't solve the problem of low winning rate. It just makes traders die slowly, so that they have enough time and opportunity to get their own wave of market prices. It can be seen that position management cannot be discussed separately, but should be combined with the time period, psychological endurance and the basis of entry and exit of each person's trading.</p><p>For example, trend traders usually don't win too much, but the profit-loss ratio is quite large. This requires strict control of positions to reduce the cost of trial orders when conducting trend trading. Once the trial orders are successful and profitable, they should constantly increase their positions to improve their profit-loss ratio to make up for the disadvantages of low winning rate. Short-term traders rely on high winning rate and low profit-loss ratio to achieve profits, so they need to improve their capital utilization rate to maximize their profits. Of course, the stop loss of short-term traders is very strict, which reduces the risk caused by heavy positions at another level.</p><p>The purpose of position management is to cut off losses and let profits run. In order to achieve this purpose, some principles need to be followed:</p><p>1. Never put all your money in the market. Especially in the novice stage or in a state of \"small profit and big loss\" for a long time, putting all the funds into the market will not only enlarge the losses, but also affect the mentality of traders to a certain extent. Of course, short-term traders can try to attack heavily when the stop loss is firm and the profit-loss ratio is reasonable, but it is necessary to ensure that the entry of the same standard is to open the same position, otherwise it is very likely to appear<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06838\">When profitable</a>Light warehouse, the embarrassing situation of heavy warehouse when losing money.</p><p>2. It is normal for accidental continuous losses in transactions. Position management must ensure that after continuous losses, the remaining funds can open positions with the same number of lots. If this principle cannot be followed, it is very likely that 100 lots could have been opened, but only 90 lots could have been opened after several consecutive losses. It will be more difficult for 90 lots to return the funds to the original level than 100 lots.</p><p>3. There should be a scientific strategy of adding and reducing positions. Although trading is a game of probability from a mathematical point of view, it is by no means a static model. The constantly changing market is likely to have a market trend that lets us add or lighten positions after we enter the market once. At this time, your winning rate and profit-loss ratio are also changing, which requires your position management, including adding or lightening positions.</p><p>Is there a general rule for specific position management that is accurate to numbers? For example, what percentage of positions must be opened, and under what circumstances, what percentage of positions should be added or lightened? Unfortunately, no! As I have said at the beginning of this part, position management should be designed in combination with personal entry and exit basis and psychological endurance. Here we can only provide you with an idea. Everyone needs to complete the position management strategy according to their own relevant data.</p><p>What data or reference items do you need to set your own position management strategy? I've made the following statistics here for your reference:</p><p>1. Your own risk appetite. You have to determine whether you are radical or conservative. What is the acceptable loss you can accept every time? These losses correspond to the number of stop loss points in your trading system. The acceptable loss is the amount of loss you can bear at one point compared with the upper stop loss point. These amounts are the number of lots you open in a single entry compared with the fluctuating price of each point in a single hand.</p><p>2. The winning rate of trading techniques. Your position management must be determined in combination with the winning rate that trading techniques can provide, so as to ensure that your funds can survive the loss part under the normal proportion of profit and loss times.</p><p>3. The risk-reward ratio of the transaction is the so-called profit-loss ratio. Winning rate and profit-loss ratio are a pair of twins, which I have mentioned in many previous articles. With the cooperation of winning rate and profit-loss ratio, your position management must be able to resist the \"worst period\" in trading, otherwise you will die tragically in the dark night before dawn before you reach the dawn in your own trading system.</p><p>In conclusion, position management is not an independent static part, it is an integral part of the whole trading system. We have only discussed position management and all aspects related to it above, but it is not that the trading system is just that. The entry and exit strategy and position management in the trading system complement each other, and both are indispensable.</p><p>3. Mentality Problems in Position Management</p><p>The first two parts tell you the \"worldview\" and \"methodology\" of position management respectively, and the next is the problem of consciousness. Before the problems in the above two parts are solved, the mentality must not be able to cope well. If your position management has been inspired by the above sections or has solved previous problems, then the problem of mentality is relatively easier.</p><p>There are only two kinds of mentalities that often appear in position management: when making money, it would be nice if I could have worked with a full warehouse; When losing money, if only I could have tried it lightly. Of course, there will also be such things as do you want to add positions? Add a position and take a gamble! Or do you want to lighten your position? Forget it, let's quickly lighten your position and run away, but the latter is a derivative of the former.</p><p>When managing positions, the best state is to carry out them completely according to the designed management mode, without any subjective factors. This is easy to say, but it is not that easy to do, so what to do?</p><p>There is no shortcut, that is, make the management strategy of the position and other parts of the matching trading system as detailed as possible, and don't give yourself any room for subjective reverie.</p><p>Note that this is not to let you make the trading system complicated, but to tell everyone to make the trading system as simple as possible fixed and careful as possible. For example, if a certain operation is based on an interval, then turn this interval into a certain value, or try to compress the range of the interval to find the certainty in the system. Only in this way can you firmly lock your heart with rules.</p><p>However, rules still rely on discipline to complete the enforcement, so we must abide by the discipline that has been established, even if we use the self-reward and punishment mechanism.</p><p>The position management is coming to an end here. I hope you can get some ideas about position management from it, which will certainly be beneficial to everyone's trading road. Finally, I hope everyone trades smoothly and takes all rises and falls.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=70226&type=news\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b72c7a49848a200043090f96ed32f108","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=70226&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2108576110","content_text":"很多交易者进入市场总会经历“小赚大亏”的阶段，资金曲线在这个阶段的表现也是小涨急跌，更有甚者会是一路下跌，没有任何反弹的迹象。那这样一个让人沮丧的阶段该如何度过呢？怎么打破在“小赚大亏”中资金被消磨殆尽的怪象？也许从仓位管理的角度可以给你一些启示。仓位管理通常也会被笼统的称之为“资金管理”，虽然这样的代指并不严谨，但在交易圈内很多时候是可以通用的。那什么才是仓位管理呢？顾名思义就是管理你手中的头寸。你的账户资金可以支撑的最大头寸数就是你的满仓状态，你实际持有的头寸数和满仓数的比例就是所谓的仓位占比。在百度百科里对于此的定义是：风险市场中，通过限制单次投入资金的比例来控制风险。通过上面的表述，大家对“仓位管理”应该有一个较为准确的认知了，下面我们就从仓位管理的必要性、仓位如何管理、仓位管理中的心态问题三个方面来阐述应该如何从这一层面解决“小赚大亏”的问题。一、仓位管理的重要性与必要性研究仓位管理的前提一定是交易手法具有一致性，固定的使用一种或几种组合的形式参与市场，否则仓位管理就会失去其意义，这一点是需要说在前面的。其中的道理很简单，就像你在打扑克一样，每次弃牌和加注的标准应该一致，不然谁能说得准你会不会在赢得时候只加了很小的注，而在输的时候却下的是重注。没有人可以准确的预测到市场在未来某个时刻会是怎样的一种状态，表现为怎么的一个价格。即使有人在短期内做到了，那也肯定是蒙的，在市场中搏杀不要相信任何一个号称自己可以预测行情的人。如此一来，市场的不确定性就显而易见的摆在我们面前，既然市场永远无法预测，那你还有理由把全部的资金用于头寸持有吗？此时，你可能会说，不重仓持有怎么能博取足够的利润？有一点你需要注意，风险和利润是并存的，你放大了追逐利润的可能，与此同时也解开了束缚风险的绳索。尤其在新手阶段，没有办法保证胜率的情况下不加节制的投入资金无疑是爆仓最快的途径之一。仓位管理是一个关于风险的防范措施，并不是你追逐利润的手段，这正像文章开头引用百度百科的那句话。很多成功的前辈也经常会告诉我们，只有在相当确定的情况下才能重仓，即使这样也是建立在提前做好止损准备的前提下。毕竟生存下来才是在市场中获利的重要支撑。由此可以看出仓位管理在市场博弈中是必不可少的。在无法很好的解读市场信号，建立完善的交易系统之前投入较小的仓位尝试是永远不会错的。它虽然暂时无法让你摆脱“小赚”，但配合止损的仓位管理起码可以帮你截住“大亏”，这在交易的整个过程里都是一种标志性的胜利：你的资金终于不再大把的流出。二、仓位如何管理？前边说的这些如果是所谓的“世界观”，那这一部分我们来探讨一下仓位管理的“方法论”。首先有一点需要大家明白：仓位控制并不能解决胜率低的问题，它只是让交易者死的慢点，以便有足够的时间和机会去获取属于自己的那一波行情。由此可见，仓位管理不能单独来讨论，而是应该结合每个人交易的时间周期、心理承受能力和进出场依据。比如趋势交易者通常胜率不会太高，但盈亏比却是相当的大。这就要求在进行趋势交易时要严格的控制仓位来降低试单成本，一旦试单成功出现盈利就要不断加仓来提升自己的盈亏比以弥补胜率低的弊端。而短线交易者是依靠高胜率配合低盈亏比来实现盈利的，所以他需要提高自己的资金利用率来保证盈利的尽量最大化，当然短线交易者的止损都是非常严格的，这就在另一个层面降低了重仓所带来的风险。仓位管理的目的是斩断亏损，让利润奔跑，为了实现这一目的需要遵循一些原则：1、永远都不要把你的全部资金投入市场。尤其在新手阶段或者长期处于“小赚大亏”的状态中时，把全部资金投入市场不仅会让亏损放大，也会在一定程度上影响交易者的心态。当然，短线交易者在止损坚决并且盈亏比合理的情况下可以尝试重仓出击，但务必保证同一标准的进场是开立相同的仓位，不然很有可能出现盈利时轻仓，亏损时重仓的尴尬局面。2、在交易中出现偶然性的连续亏损是正常的，仓位管理必须保证在连续亏损后，剩余资金还可以开立相同手数的头寸。如果这一原则无法遵循，那就很有可能出现原本可以开100手单，连续几次亏损后就只能开立90手单了，90手的单量想要将资金打回原来的水平会比100手单更加艰难。3、要有科学的加减仓策略。交易虽然在数学的角度来看是一个概率的游戏，但它绝不是一个静态的模型。时刻变化着的市场在我们一次入场后很可能会出现让我们加仓或者减仓的行情走势，这个时候你的胜率和盈亏比也在发生着变化，这就需要你的仓位管理包括加减仓的内容在其中。那具体仓位管理有没有精确到数字上的通用法则呢？比如一定按照百分之多少的比例开仓，怎样的情况下按照几成的比例加仓或者减仓？很可惜，没有！在这一部分的开始就已经说过了，仓位管理是要结合个人的进出仓依据、心理承受能力来设计的，这里只能为你提供一种思路，大家需要根据自己的相关数据来进行完成仓位的管理策略。那设定属于自己的仓位管理策略需要依据哪些数据或者参考项呢？我在这里做了如下统计，供诸位参考：1、自己的风险偏好。你要确定你是激进型的还是保守型的，你每次可以接受的亏损是多少，这些亏损对应你交易系统中的止损点数又是多少，可以接受的亏损额比上止损点数就是你一个点可以承受的亏损数额，这些数额比上单手每点波动价格就是你单次入场开仓的手数了。2、交易手法的胜率。你的仓位管理一定要结合交易手法所能提供的胜率来确定，这样才能保证正常比例的盈亏次数下你的资金可以挺过亏损的部分。3、交易的风险报酬比，也就是所谓的盈亏比。胜率和盈亏比是一对双生子，这个在之前很多文章里我都有提到过。在胜率和盈亏比的配合下，你的仓位管理一定要是能抗得过交易中“最坏的时期”，不然你还没有走到自己交易系统中的黎明就已经惨死在黎明前的黑夜里了。总之，仓位管理不是独立静态的部分，它是整个交易系统的组成部分。上面我们只讨论了仓位管理以及与之相关的各方面因素，但并不是说交易系统就仅仅如此。交易系统中的进出仓策略和仓位管理相辅相成，二者缺一不可。三、仓位管理中的心态问题前面两个部分分别告诉了大家仓位管理的“世界观”和“方法论”，接下来就是意识层面的问题了。在上面两个部分的问题没有解决好之前心态方面也必定是不能很好应对的。如果你的仓位管理已经从上述部分中有所启发，或是已经解决了之前的问题，那心态的问题就相对容易一些了。在仓位管理中经常出现的心态无非就两种：赚钱时，要是我当初能满仓干就好了；亏钱时，要是我当初能轻仓试一试就好了。当然，也会有诸如要不要加仓？加仓赌一把吧！或者要不要减仓？算了，还是赶紧减仓跑路吧等心理状态，不过后者是前者的衍生品了。在进行仓位管理时，最好的状态是自己完全按照已经设计好的管理模式去执行，没有任何的主观因素。这一点说起来容易，但实际做起来并没有那么简单，那该怎么办呢？没有什么捷径，就是把仓位的管理策略和与之相匹配的交易系统中其他部分做的尽量详细，不给自己任何主观遐想的空间。注意，这不是让你把交易系统做的错综复杂，而是告诉大家把尽量简单的交易系统做的尽量固定和仔细。比如某一项操作依据是一个区间性的，那就把这个区间变成确定的数值，亦或是尽量压缩区间的范围来寻找系统中的确定性，只有这样才能用规则把自己的心牢牢锁住。不过，规则还是要靠纪律来完成执行的，所以，一定要遵守已经制定好的纪律，哪怕使用自我的奖惩机制。关于仓位管理说到这里也即将结束了，希望大家从中可以收获一些关于仓位管理的思路，这对于大家的交易之路必将是有所裨益的。最后希望大家交易顺利，涨跌通吃。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097412137,"gmtCreate":1645529000257,"gmtModify":1676534036128,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581989768565324","idStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻👍🏻","text":"👍🏻👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097412137","repostId":"1187542871","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187542871","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1645511042,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187542871?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-22 14:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Investment Philosophy Behind \"Wall Street Must-Read Classics\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187542871","media":"期乐会","summary":"导读：霍华德·马克斯毕业于沃顿商学院，1995年与人联合创建的美国橡树资本管理公司（Oaktree Capital），如今管理资产规模达1000亿美元。霍华德·马克斯自上世纪90年代开始针对投资人撰写","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Introduction:</b>Howard Marks graduated from the Wharton School and co-founded the U.S.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">Oaktree Capital</a>Management Company (Oaktree Capital), which today has $100 billion in assets under management. Howard Marks has been writing \"investment memoranda\" for investors since 1990s. In his investment memoranda in January 2000, he predicted the bursting of the technology stock bubble, and then rose to fame. \"Investment memoranda\" became a must-read document on Wall Street.</p><p>\"The first email I opened and read was Howard Marks' memo. I always learned something from it. His books were even more so,\" Warren Buffett said.</p><p>Buffett rarely recommends investment books, but he strongly recommends Howard Marks' book \"The Most Important Thing in Investing,\" and says he read it twice.</p><p>This article is an excellent talk by Howard Marks in Shanghai, sharing how the investment philosophy behind \"The Most Important Thing in Investing\" came about and where these impacts came from.</p><p>I'm glad everyone came here to listen to me about the book I wrote, my investment philosophy, and how we manage money.</p><p>I want to take this opportunity to reiterate what I firmly believe they are necessary in investing. What I also want to talk to you today is how the investment philosophy behind this book came into being and where these impacts came from.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6751656f0d5e3443e7003f9db76070cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1. You must understand that the world is made of uncertainty</b></p><p>We need to realize that the world is a world of uncertainty, so that we can understand how to deal with it. If you think that the way to deal with the future is to predict exactly what will happen, think that you are correct and use that as a basis for action, you are asking for trouble. If something unexpected happens, you may end badly.</p><p>The humorous Mark Twain said, \"What gets you into trouble is not what you don't know, but what you think you know and are wrong.\" I think that believing too much in the future can be the source of danger.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5368906abff5d5a517cebc079de1257d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Too much uncertainty is the source of danger in our world</b></p><p>It is very dangerous to base investment on future predictions. My predictions don't have to be much better than others. After all, no one can make correct predictions of the future macro. Therefore, our investment portfolio must perform well in various macro situations to control risks. Only by knowing that we are ignorant can we accept the many possibilities of the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91729fd2cecd28f5691b58fdc8e203f2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. I understand that the development of the world is often controlled by random events</b></p><p>We can't say what the future will certainly be, which is made up of random events that can happen. Even if you know the distribution of random events, the relative probabilities of each event, you don't know when these events will occur. I think it's important.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41ed244801f3a7fe1dba77e482484bef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. Leave a safe space to cope with uncertainty</b></p><p>Arguably, in my career, I have been successful because I have studied what might happen in the future, but don't think it will happen, leaving room for uncertainty, leaving room for variables, and preparing myself for life in a world of uncertainty.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103c085e452fed0c456586740d8e21f7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>5. Risk is exactly what most people think will not happen</b></p><p>What is risk? A very good reading is: \"Risk Means More Things Can Happen Than Will Happen\" (Eloy Dimson, a professor at the London School of Economics, points out).</p><p>If a risk is in the current market and most investors think it will happen, then it is not a risk; If most investors think something won't happen in the future, then this is where the risk lies.</p><p>But the truth is that we never know if something is going to happen, and from that point of view, we must try to understand the future, to understand its possibilities, but never assume that we have fully figured it out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45346b201312ac992d91e9a589ccbf62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>6. No particularly bad record is better than good and bad</b></p><p>Simon Ramo wrote a book about tennis that had a big impact on me. Simon said there are two types of tennis matches, one is a winner's match; One is the loser's game.</p><p>The winner's game is played by pros like Federer, Djokovic, Nadal, Sampras. The winner of the tennis championship match is skilled and skilled, and there is no need to worry about the bounce of the tennis ball, the speed of the wind, the glare of the sun, the lack of skill, etc. They can fight as much as they want, literally as they like.</p><p>The winner's game belongs to the winner. The winner hits the ball, the opponent can't catch it. To win in a championship game, you have to hit the kind of very tricky ball that only a winner can hit.</p><p>As for us, we can't play like a winner. We won the game mainly by avoiding hitting the ball that the loser did.</p><p>Amateurs like me can't hit tricky balls, and even simple balls can't be caught sometimes. What we pursue is to hit the ball back, we just hit the ball back, we just hit the ball back, we just hit the ball back.</p><p>We knew that if we could fight back ten times, our opponent would probably only be able to do nine. Sooner or later, the opponent's ball will go out of bounds or fail to cross the net. We don't win by hitting good shots, we win by not hitting bad shots.</p><p>When I read this article and extended this concept to investing, I felt enlightened at the time. We live in an uncertain world where it is difficult to always make successful investments, and those who pursue great success often fail.</p><p>I came to the conclusion that for me, perhaps the best way for us to be successful in investing in the long run is to not make mistakes, not make wrong investments, and no bad years. As long as a good investment is accumulated one by one, as long as the performance is stable year after year, 20, 30, 40 and 50 years, it will be a successful investment career in the long run.</p><p>The point is that it is impossible to be right every time, it is difficult to know what the future will hold, it is difficult to make a good shot or make a beautiful investment and succeed overnight, but as long as we avoid failure, we are on the right path to success through investment. In the investment business, if you haven't had a bad performance in 20, 30, or 40 years, your record is top-notch.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a34eae22141b5d6d1664373b1999a30a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>7. Investment should not be based on macroeconomic forecasts</b></p><p>Macro forecasting refers to predicting how the economy, market and interest will change in the future, and studying the overall situation. These things, firstly, are difficult to study and understand, and secondly, it is difficult to study and understand better than others.</p><p>For people like me, to predict what will happen to the world economy, the U.S. economy or the Chinese economy or interest rates or China's A shares next year, what advantage do I have over others? It is difficult to understand these things better than others have studied. And we achieve better investment performance by understanding better than others' research.</p><p>Oaktree Capital does not base its investments on future macro forecasts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/568a4512af2303d8f1bb9e92e5786bfa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>8. How should you invest?</b></p><p>First, you have to consider what kind of investment results will come out of the future. When constructing a portfolio, the portfolio must be at least OK, that is, it is still viable in any possible scenario, and only under this condition should it be invested.</p><p>Second, try to control risks. The risk is not to get out of control in any scenario you can consider so that you don't encounter poor investment performance.</p><p>Third, we don't assume that we can understand macroeconomics, but we really should know more micro stuff. What is microscopic? It's the company, the industry and the securities. On these specific, smaller-picture task lists, if you can study them very hard and have the right techniques, you can understand these companies more deeply than others.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3608dc4cf2c20427504193a36c19d04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>9. The Holy Grail of Investment: Bargains</b></p><p>When I first joined Citibank in 1968, the company invested in the so-called \"Pretty Fifty,\" the 50 best and fastest-growing companies in the United States, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">HP</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca Cola</a>Merck,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">Lilly</a>。 The problem is that these companies are so expensive that if you bought them in 1968 and held them for five years, by 1973 you would have lost 80 to 90 percent, even though you bought the best companies in America.</p><p>In addition, some of these companies had high hopes and ended up falling, such as,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KODK\">Kodak</a>Polaroid. Few people take pictures with film nowadays, and few people use Polaroids because we can take countless pictures for free with our phones. These companies basically disappeared, but in 1968, people invested in these companies at very high prices, believing that they would always be so perfect, but never imagined that they would disappear. The point is, you can also lose a lot of money when you buy a very good company.</p><p>We can learn a truth from this: a good company is not the same thing as a good investment. You can lose a lot of money by buying a good company, and you can make a lot of money by buying a bad company. This tells us that it is certainly not the texture of the company that determines the investment income.</p><p>So, what determines investment returns? Is the price to buy. If the company is expensive, you may lose money. You may make money, or even safely, if companies with poor texture are cheap. This is very important to the formation of my investment philosophy.</p><p>I've learned that it's not what you buy that matters, it's how much you spend on it. The key is not to buy good things, but to buy well. This is very, very important.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60e6e337c5d9f04947275ad92b45483f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>10. The wise creates, the fools imitate</b></p><p>In investing, every trend goes to extremes at the end.</p><p>When A shares are 2000 points, the people who invest in A shares are doing the right thing. But then, the stock rose, and others were attracted, and others bought, the more they bought, the more they bought, the more excited they bought, and they bought with leverage. Those who bought at 5000 later suffered.</p><p>This tells us that if you act early in the trend, at the right timing and price, you can safely make good gains. If you act at the end of a trend, regardless of timing and price, you could be in big trouble.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efb5834bd7cc7e92def8f35ca4009408\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>11. Never forget that six-foot tall people can drown in a river that is five feet deep on average</b></p><p>When we make investment, we can't just pursue average survival, but must survive every day.</p><p>Therefore, we have to build a portfolio that can withstand the worst. Our investment management must be very professional, with a strong sense of risk and a strong sense of conservation, so that we can get through the difficult times.</p><p>Good days are easy to live. When good days are good, it is not difficult to survive. At this time, in fact, everyone is living well. What's hard is who gets through the tough times, those with too aggressive portfolios, those with too much leverage that can't survive the tough times, six-footers that drown, those are the people talking.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54ec5cdb9c594cf699a43411d32f2191\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>12. It is difficult to distinguish whether it is much earlier than others or whether it is wrong</b></p><p>As mentioned earlier, investing faces the future, and in the investment world, it is difficult to do the right thing, and it is impossible to always do the right thing at the right time. That said, even if we are doing the right thing, our timing may not be entirely right.</p><p>We may be too early, and if we are too late, we may be in trouble. So you should wish you were too early. But if you're too early, for a while, it looks like you're doing it wrong.</p><p>When A shares reached 4,000 points, some people said no, it was too dangerous, and they left the market. From 4000 to 5000, it looks like they're wrong and they feel wrong themselves, they probably regret leaving at 4000 and can only watch others make money all the way to 5000.</p><p>They feel like they're doing it wrong, but they're right, just too early. Our timing can never be accurate. You must have courage and conviction, and if you do what you do for good reason, the facts will eventually prove that your actions are rational.</p><p>I have to have courage myself. I buy something whose price is falling, I buy it because it is cheap, because it is falling, I like it, I buy it. It will continue to fall. I have to be confident that I am right. You can't sell it just because it continues to fall. So you have to keep in mind that it's hard to tell if you were a lot ahead of others or if you were doing it wrong until the facts finally prove you are right.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/091822289ba4245413c67ec3cfd391ef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What is the task of the asset manager?</b></p><p>First, control risks.</p><p>What are the tasks of an asset manager? Is making a lot of money? Beat the market? Is it outperforming Wall Street? We disagree with none of these. The first job of an asset management manager is to control risk. We at Oaktree Asset put risk control at the highest level.</p><p>We position ourselves as an alternative asset manager. We do not invest in mainstream stocks and mainstream bonds. We discover corporate bonds, convertible securities, non-performing bonds, controllable investments (energy, infrastructure), real estate, publicly listed stocks (undervalued), emerging markets, etc. that are less concerned about teaching. We have our own investment strategies for each category.</p><p>Second, stability.</p><p>Our investment performance is not going to be first this year and then last next year. We are generally in the middle, because of our outstanding risk control, we will stand out in tough times. We have achieved that goal over the past 30 years.</p><p>We get average returns. Average returns are OK in a bull market. Everyone makes money in a bull market, which is enough, but our customers want us to beat the average performance in a bear market.</p><p>A very simple summary is: we get average returns in bull markets, and excess returns in bear markets.</p><p>What would happen if we could achieve this goal year after year, for decades? Our performance will be less volatile than average. The overall higher-than-average return is because our outstanding performance in the bear market has allowed us to achieve this goal, which is indeed necessary so that our customers will feel happy.</p><p>I think this is the secret of our company's growth. After 20 years, we have reached a scale of 100 billion dollars, from 3.5 billion dollars in 2006 to 100 billion dollars today. We really started our asset management business in 2007, and 2008 was during the financial crisis. We accepted at least 10 billion dollars in 2007, because our performance will be better than average in the bear market. We can show this investment result to people, and everyone feels that Oaktree Capital is trustworthy and capable of delivering a sustained and stable investment result. And we grow!</p><p>Third, we are looking for the part of the market that is less effective.</p><p>We think it is very difficult for investors to gain an advantage to make money in the part of the market that people can understand; But for the parts of the market that people usually can't understand, you can do relatively better, like bonds, convertible bonds, personal mortgages, infrastructure implementation, real estate, emerging markets... These projects are relatively easier to gain investment advantages, but not so easy, just relatively easier than products in a fully effective market.</p><p>Fourth, we believe that macroeconomic forecasting is not the key to successful investment.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, I don't believe macro forecasts work. In my opinion, macro forecasting is not necessary for a successful investment. All the successful investors I know, even Buffett included, did not succeed because the macro forecasts were better than others. Their success depends on their knowledge of companies, industries and securities.</p><p>Finally, we don't speculate on the ups and downs of the market.</p><p>When managing funds, we don't put money in it just because we think the market is going to rise, and take it out just because we think the market is going to fall. It's too easy to guess the ups and downs like this. We just enter the market and then basically stay in the market. However, we will adjust the degree of aggression or conservation from the price of market assets and the psychology of surrounding investors.</p><p>Long-term investment success is not achieved through great investments, in the baseball metaphor, not by hitting home runs occasionally, long-term success for investors stems from building a safe portfolio with few failures and few bad years. If you can do this seemingly simple but difficult thing right, you can achieve very successful investment performance over several decades. That's our goal, and I think we've done it. That's what I want to share with you all.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee355aa3c1360abf8698134c634c090f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>14. Regarding asset allocation, Howard suggested</b></p><p>1. Just as eggs should not be put in the same basket, we don't know the future, so everyone should diversify their investments.</p><p>2. There is no \"Magic Number\" (specific investment allocation ratio). For investors, investment needs to be done step by step. When you feel good, do more and take it step by step. If you don't understand, too much investment will only make it worse. You can make mistakes, but you can't lose all your money.</p><p>3. At the same time, it is also discouraged to use a very small proportion (less than 5%) in the investment portfolio to invest in the aspects you are optimistic about, because too small an investment will play a small role in your portfolio no matter how it performs, and it is meaningless.</p><p>4. Don't invest in things you don't understand. If you don't understand it at all, don't do it.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1645511055786","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Investment Philosophy Behind \"Wall Street Must-Read Classics\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Investment Philosophy Behind \"Wall Street Must-Read Classics\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">期乐会</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-22 14:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Introduction:</b>Howard Marks graduated from the Wharton School and co-founded the U.S.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">Oaktree Capital</a>Management Company (Oaktree Capital), which today has $100 billion in assets under management. Howard Marks has been writing \"investment memoranda\" for investors since 1990s. In his investment memoranda in January 2000, he predicted the bursting of the technology stock bubble, and then rose to fame. \"Investment memoranda\" became a must-read document on Wall Street.</p><p>\"The first email I opened and read was Howard Marks' memo. I always learned something from it. His books were even more so,\" Warren Buffett said.</p><p>Buffett rarely recommends investment books, but he strongly recommends Howard Marks' book \"The Most Important Thing in Investing,\" and says he read it twice.</p><p>This article is an excellent talk by Howard Marks in Shanghai, sharing how the investment philosophy behind \"The Most Important Thing in Investing\" came about and where these impacts came from.</p><p>I'm glad everyone came here to listen to me about the book I wrote, my investment philosophy, and how we manage money.</p><p>I want to take this opportunity to reiterate what I firmly believe they are necessary in investing. What I also want to talk to you today is how the investment philosophy behind this book came into being and where these impacts came from.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6751656f0d5e3443e7003f9db76070cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1. You must understand that the world is made of uncertainty</b></p><p>We need to realize that the world is a world of uncertainty, so that we can understand how to deal with it. If you think that the way to deal with the future is to predict exactly what will happen, think that you are correct and use that as a basis for action, you are asking for trouble. If something unexpected happens, you may end badly.</p><p>The humorous Mark Twain said, \"What gets you into trouble is not what you don't know, but what you think you know and are wrong.\" I think that believing too much in the future can be the source of danger.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5368906abff5d5a517cebc079de1257d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Too much uncertainty is the source of danger in our world</b></p><p>It is very dangerous to base investment on future predictions. My predictions don't have to be much better than others. After all, no one can make correct predictions of the future macro. Therefore, our investment portfolio must perform well in various macro situations to control risks. Only by knowing that we are ignorant can we accept the many possibilities of the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91729fd2cecd28f5691b58fdc8e203f2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. I understand that the development of the world is often controlled by random events</b></p><p>We can't say what the future will certainly be, which is made up of random events that can happen. Even if you know the distribution of random events, the relative probabilities of each event, you don't know when these events will occur. I think it's important.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41ed244801f3a7fe1dba77e482484bef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. Leave a safe space to cope with uncertainty</b></p><p>Arguably, in my career, I have been successful because I have studied what might happen in the future, but don't think it will happen, leaving room for uncertainty, leaving room for variables, and preparing myself for life in a world of uncertainty.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103c085e452fed0c456586740d8e21f7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>5. Risk is exactly what most people think will not happen</b></p><p>What is risk? A very good reading is: \"Risk Means More Things Can Happen Than Will Happen\" (Eloy Dimson, a professor at the London School of Economics, points out).</p><p>If a risk is in the current market and most investors think it will happen, then it is not a risk; If most investors think something won't happen in the future, then this is where the risk lies.</p><p>But the truth is that we never know if something is going to happen, and from that point of view, we must try to understand the future, to understand its possibilities, but never assume that we have fully figured it out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45346b201312ac992d91e9a589ccbf62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>6. No particularly bad record is better than good and bad</b></p><p>Simon Ramo wrote a book about tennis that had a big impact on me. Simon said there are two types of tennis matches, one is a winner's match; One is the loser's game.</p><p>The winner's game is played by pros like Federer, Djokovic, Nadal, Sampras. The winner of the tennis championship match is skilled and skilled, and there is no need to worry about the bounce of the tennis ball, the speed of the wind, the glare of the sun, the lack of skill, etc. They can fight as much as they want, literally as they like.</p><p>The winner's game belongs to the winner. The winner hits the ball, the opponent can't catch it. To win in a championship game, you have to hit the kind of very tricky ball that only a winner can hit.</p><p>As for us, we can't play like a winner. We won the game mainly by avoiding hitting the ball that the loser did.</p><p>Amateurs like me can't hit tricky balls, and even simple balls can't be caught sometimes. What we pursue is to hit the ball back, we just hit the ball back, we just hit the ball back, we just hit the ball back.</p><p>We knew that if we could fight back ten times, our opponent would probably only be able to do nine. Sooner or later, the opponent's ball will go out of bounds or fail to cross the net. We don't win by hitting good shots, we win by not hitting bad shots.</p><p>When I read this article and extended this concept to investing, I felt enlightened at the time. We live in an uncertain world where it is difficult to always make successful investments, and those who pursue great success often fail.</p><p>I came to the conclusion that for me, perhaps the best way for us to be successful in investing in the long run is to not make mistakes, not make wrong investments, and no bad years. As long as a good investment is accumulated one by one, as long as the performance is stable year after year, 20, 30, 40 and 50 years, it will be a successful investment career in the long run.</p><p>The point is that it is impossible to be right every time, it is difficult to know what the future will hold, it is difficult to make a good shot or make a beautiful investment and succeed overnight, but as long as we avoid failure, we are on the right path to success through investment. In the investment business, if you haven't had a bad performance in 20, 30, or 40 years, your record is top-notch.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a34eae22141b5d6d1664373b1999a30a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>7. Investment should not be based on macroeconomic forecasts</b></p><p>Macro forecasting refers to predicting how the economy, market and interest will change in the future, and studying the overall situation. These things, firstly, are difficult to study and understand, and secondly, it is difficult to study and understand better than others.</p><p>For people like me, to predict what will happen to the world economy, the U.S. economy or the Chinese economy or interest rates or China's A shares next year, what advantage do I have over others? It is difficult to understand these things better than others have studied. And we achieve better investment performance by understanding better than others' research.</p><p>Oaktree Capital does not base its investments on future macro forecasts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/568a4512af2303d8f1bb9e92e5786bfa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>8. How should you invest?</b></p><p>First, you have to consider what kind of investment results will come out of the future. When constructing a portfolio, the portfolio must be at least OK, that is, it is still viable in any possible scenario, and only under this condition should it be invested.</p><p>Second, try to control risks. The risk is not to get out of control in any scenario you can consider so that you don't encounter poor investment performance.</p><p>Third, we don't assume that we can understand macroeconomics, but we really should know more micro stuff. What is microscopic? It's the company, the industry and the securities. On these specific, smaller-picture task lists, if you can study them very hard and have the right techniques, you can understand these companies more deeply than others.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3608dc4cf2c20427504193a36c19d04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>9. The Holy Grail of Investment: Bargains</b></p><p>When I first joined Citibank in 1968, the company invested in the so-called \"Pretty Fifty,\" the 50 best and fastest-growing companies in the United States, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">HP</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca Cola</a>Merck,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">Lilly</a>。 The problem is that these companies are so expensive that if you bought them in 1968 and held them for five years, by 1973 you would have lost 80 to 90 percent, even though you bought the best companies in America.</p><p>In addition, some of these companies had high hopes and ended up falling, such as,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KODK\">Kodak</a>Polaroid. Few people take pictures with film nowadays, and few people use Polaroids because we can take countless pictures for free with our phones. These companies basically disappeared, but in 1968, people invested in these companies at very high prices, believing that they would always be so perfect, but never imagined that they would disappear. The point is, you can also lose a lot of money when you buy a very good company.</p><p>We can learn a truth from this: a good company is not the same thing as a good investment. You can lose a lot of money by buying a good company, and you can make a lot of money by buying a bad company. This tells us that it is certainly not the texture of the company that determines the investment income.</p><p>So, what determines investment returns? Is the price to buy. If the company is expensive, you may lose money. You may make money, or even safely, if companies with poor texture are cheap. This is very important to the formation of my investment philosophy.</p><p>I've learned that it's not what you buy that matters, it's how much you spend on it. The key is not to buy good things, but to buy well. This is very, very important.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60e6e337c5d9f04947275ad92b45483f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>10. The wise creates, the fools imitate</b></p><p>In investing, every trend goes to extremes at the end.</p><p>When A shares are 2000 points, the people who invest in A shares are doing the right thing. But then, the stock rose, and others were attracted, and others bought, the more they bought, the more they bought, the more excited they bought, and they bought with leverage. Those who bought at 5000 later suffered.</p><p>This tells us that if you act early in the trend, at the right timing and price, you can safely make good gains. If you act at the end of a trend, regardless of timing and price, you could be in big trouble.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efb5834bd7cc7e92def8f35ca4009408\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>11. Never forget that six-foot tall people can drown in a river that is five feet deep on average</b></p><p>When we make investment, we can't just pursue average survival, but must survive every day.</p><p>Therefore, we have to build a portfolio that can withstand the worst. Our investment management must be very professional, with a strong sense of risk and a strong sense of conservation, so that we can get through the difficult times.</p><p>Good days are easy to live. When good days are good, it is not difficult to survive. At this time, in fact, everyone is living well. What's hard is who gets through the tough times, those with too aggressive portfolios, those with too much leverage that can't survive the tough times, six-footers that drown, those are the people talking.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54ec5cdb9c594cf699a43411d32f2191\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>12. It is difficult to distinguish whether it is much earlier than others or whether it is wrong</b></p><p>As mentioned earlier, investing faces the future, and in the investment world, it is difficult to do the right thing, and it is impossible to always do the right thing at the right time. That said, even if we are doing the right thing, our timing may not be entirely right.</p><p>We may be too early, and if we are too late, we may be in trouble. So you should wish you were too early. But if you're too early, for a while, it looks like you're doing it wrong.</p><p>When A shares reached 4,000 points, some people said no, it was too dangerous, and they left the market. From 4000 to 5000, it looks like they're wrong and they feel wrong themselves, they probably regret leaving at 4000 and can only watch others make money all the way to 5000.</p><p>They feel like they're doing it wrong, but they're right, just too early. Our timing can never be accurate. You must have courage and conviction, and if you do what you do for good reason, the facts will eventually prove that your actions are rational.</p><p>I have to have courage myself. I buy something whose price is falling, I buy it because it is cheap, because it is falling, I like it, I buy it. It will continue to fall. I have to be confident that I am right. You can't sell it just because it continues to fall. So you have to keep in mind that it's hard to tell if you were a lot ahead of others or if you were doing it wrong until the facts finally prove you are right.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/091822289ba4245413c67ec3cfd391ef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What is the task of the asset manager?</b></p><p>First, control risks.</p><p>What are the tasks of an asset manager? Is making a lot of money? Beat the market? Is it outperforming Wall Street? We disagree with none of these. The first job of an asset management manager is to control risk. We at Oaktree Asset put risk control at the highest level.</p><p>We position ourselves as an alternative asset manager. We do not invest in mainstream stocks and mainstream bonds. We discover corporate bonds, convertible securities, non-performing bonds, controllable investments (energy, infrastructure), real estate, publicly listed stocks (undervalued), emerging markets, etc. that are less concerned about teaching. We have our own investment strategies for each category.</p><p>Second, stability.</p><p>Our investment performance is not going to be first this year and then last next year. We are generally in the middle, because of our outstanding risk control, we will stand out in tough times. We have achieved that goal over the past 30 years.</p><p>We get average returns. Average returns are OK in a bull market. Everyone makes money in a bull market, which is enough, but our customers want us to beat the average performance in a bear market.</p><p>A very simple summary is: we get average returns in bull markets, and excess returns in bear markets.</p><p>What would happen if we could achieve this goal year after year, for decades? Our performance will be less volatile than average. The overall higher-than-average return is because our outstanding performance in the bear market has allowed us to achieve this goal, which is indeed necessary so that our customers will feel happy.</p><p>I think this is the secret of our company's growth. After 20 years, we have reached a scale of 100 billion dollars, from 3.5 billion dollars in 2006 to 100 billion dollars today. We really started our asset management business in 2007, and 2008 was during the financial crisis. We accepted at least 10 billion dollars in 2007, because our performance will be better than average in the bear market. We can show this investment result to people, and everyone feels that Oaktree Capital is trustworthy and capable of delivering a sustained and stable investment result. And we grow!</p><p>Third, we are looking for the part of the market that is less effective.</p><p>We think it is very difficult for investors to gain an advantage to make money in the part of the market that people can understand; But for the parts of the market that people usually can't understand, you can do relatively better, like bonds, convertible bonds, personal mortgages, infrastructure implementation, real estate, emerging markets... These projects are relatively easier to gain investment advantages, but not so easy, just relatively easier than products in a fully effective market.</p><p>Fourth, we believe that macroeconomic forecasting is not the key to successful investment.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, I don't believe macro forecasts work. In my opinion, macro forecasting is not necessary for a successful investment. All the successful investors I know, even Buffett included, did not succeed because the macro forecasts were better than others. Their success depends on their knowledge of companies, industries and securities.</p><p>Finally, we don't speculate on the ups and downs of the market.</p><p>When managing funds, we don't put money in it just because we think the market is going to rise, and take it out just because we think the market is going to fall. It's too easy to guess the ups and downs like this. We just enter the market and then basically stay in the market. However, we will adjust the degree of aggression or conservation from the price of market assets and the psychology of surrounding investors.</p><p>Long-term investment success is not achieved through great investments, in the baseball metaphor, not by hitting home runs occasionally, long-term success for investors stems from building a safe portfolio with few failures and few bad years. If you can do this seemingly simple but difficult thing right, you can achieve very successful investment performance over several decades. That's our goal, and I think we've done it. That's what I want to share with you all.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee355aa3c1360abf8698134c634c090f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>14. Regarding asset allocation, Howard suggested</b></p><p>1. Just as eggs should not be put in the same basket, we don't know the future, so everyone should diversify their investments.</p><p>2. There is no \"Magic Number\" (specific investment allocation ratio). For investors, investment needs to be done step by step. When you feel good, do more and take it step by step. If you don't understand, too much investment will only make it worse. You can make mistakes, but you can't lose all your money.</p><p>3. At the same time, it is also discouraged to use a very small proportion (less than 5%) in the investment portfolio to invest in the aspects you are optimistic about, because too small an investment will play a small role in your portfolio no matter how it performs, and it is meaningless.</p><p>4. Don't invest in things you don't understand. If you don't understand it at all, don't do it.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/b1RLIOWPqoqGRFbKd_MSnw\">期乐会</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb5398fed733ffbbc94ab1b9a49946a8","relate_stocks":{"BK4176":"多领域控股","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/b1RLIOWPqoqGRFbKd_MSnw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187542871","content_text":"导读：霍华德·马克斯毕业于沃顿商学院，1995年与人联合创建的美国橡树资本管理公司（Oaktree Capital），如今管理资产规模达1000亿美元。霍华德·马克斯自上世纪90年代开始针对投资人撰写“投资备忘录”，2000年1月份的投资备忘录中，他预言了科技股泡沫破裂，之后声名鹊起，“投资备忘录”成为华尔街的必读文件。“我第一时间打开并阅读的邮件就是霍华德·马克斯的备忘录。我总能从中学到东西。他的书籍更是如此”，沃伦·巴菲特说。巴菲特很少推荐投资书籍，他却大力推荐霍华德·马克斯的书《投资最重要的事》，而且说他读了两遍。本文是霍华德·马克斯在上海的一次精彩演讲，分享《投资最重要的事》背后的投资哲学是如何产生的，这些影响是从哪里来的。很高兴大家来这里听我讲我写的书，我的投资哲学，和我们如何管理金钱。我想借这个机会，重申一下哪些东西是我在投资中坚定地相信他们是必须的，我今天还想与大家谈论的是在这本书背后的投资哲学是如何产生的，这些影响是从哪里来的。1、你必须理解世界是由不确定性构成的我们要认识到，世界是一个充满不确定性的世界，这样才能了解如何应对这个世界。要是你觉得应对未来的方法是准确预测将来会发生什么，认为自己正确无误并把这作为行动依据，肯定是自找麻烦。要是意料之外的事情发生了，你的结局可能很糟糕。幽默的马克·吐温说过：“让你陷入麻烦的，不是你不知道的事，而是你自以为知道、其实错误的事。”我认为，太相信未来可能是危险的根源。2、太多的不确定性是我们这个世界危险的来源把投资建立在对未来的预测上是一件很危险的事，我的预测不必比其他人好到哪里，毕竟没有人对未来宏观能做出正确的预测。所以我们的投资组合一定要在各种宏观情况下都有不错的表现，以此控制风险。知道我们无知，才能接受未来的多种可能。3、我理解的世界的发展往往是由随机事件控制的我们不能说未来一定会怎样，未来是由可能发生的随机事件组成的。就算你知道随机事件的分布、各个事件的相对概率，你也不知道这些事件什么时候会发生。我觉得这很重要。4、留下安全空间应对不确定性可以说，在我的职业生涯中，我能取得成功，就是因为我研究将来可能发生什么、但是不认为一定会发生，给不确定性留有余地、给可变因素留有余地，为不确定性的世界中的生活做好准备。5、风险恰恰是大多数人认为不会发生的事什么是风险？一个非常好的解读是：“风险是指总有意料之外的事情发生”(Risk Means More Things Can Happen Than Will Happen)（伦敦经济学院教授埃洛伊·迪姆森指出的）。如果一个风险在当前市场上，大多数投资者都认为会发生，那么这就不是风险；如果大多数投资者都认为某件事未来不会发生，那么这件事就是风险之所在。但是真相是我们永远不知道某一件事情会不会发生，从这一点来看，我们又必须努力去认知未来，去了解其可能性，但是永远不要假设我们已经完全搞清楚了。6、没有特别糟糕的记录好过时好时坏西蒙·拉莫(Simon Ramo)写了一本关于网球的书，对我产生了很大影响。西蒙说有两种网球比赛，一种是赢家的比赛；一种是输家的比赛。赢家的比赛是费德勒、德约科维奇、纳达尔、桑普拉斯这样的职业选手打的。网球冠军赛中的赢家技巧娴熟，球技炉火纯青，根本不用担心网球的反弹、风速、阳光刺眼、技术不到家等情况。他们想怎么打就怎么打，简直随心所欲。赢家的比赛是属于赢家的。赢家打出去的球，对手接不住。要在冠军赛中获胜，必须打出赢家才能打出来的那种非常刁钻的球。至于我们，我们打不出来赢家那样的球。我们比赛获胜，主要是靠避免打出输家那样的球。像我这样的业余爱好者打不出刁钻的球，就连简单的球有时都接不住。我们追求的就是把球打回去，我们就是把球打回去，我们就是把球打回去，我们就是把球打回去。我们知道要是我们能打回去十次，对手可能只能做到九次。或早或晚，对手的球就会出界或者过不了网。我们不靠打出好球获胜，我们靠不打坏球获胜。当我读到这篇文章时，把这个概念引申到投资上，我当时就有醍醐灌顶的感觉。我们生活在不确定的世界，很难总是做出成功的投资，那些追求伟大成功的人往往却失败了。我得出了一个结论，对我来说，我们要在投资中长期取得成功，或许最好的方式是不犯错，不做错误的投资，没有糟糕的年份。只要一笔一笔积累良好的投资，只要一年又一年业绩稳健，二十年、三十年、四十年、五十年，长此以往就是成功的投资生涯。关键是不可能每次都对，很难知道将来会怎样，很难打出一记好球或做出一笔漂亮的投资，一蹴而就地成功，但是我们只要避免失败，就走上了通过投资成功的正路。在投资这行，要是你20年、30年、40年都没有出现过糟糕的业绩，你的记录就是一流的。7、投资不应该基于宏观经济预测宏观预测是指预测经济、市场、利息将来会如何变化，研究的是大局。这些东西，首先是很难研究明白，其次是很难比别人研究得更明白。像我这样的人，去预测明年世界经济、美国经济或中国经济或利率或中国 A 股会怎样，我和别人比有什么优势？这些东西，很难比别人研究的更明白。而我们取得更好的投资业绩，靠的就是比别人研究的更明白。橡树资本的投资不以未来的宏观预测为依据。8、你应该如何投资呢第一，你要考虑未来会出什么样的投资结果。构建一个投资组合时，这个投资组合至少要OK，即在其任何可能出现的场景下依然是可行的，在这个条件下才来投资。第二，努力控制风险。这个风险是要在你能够考虑到的任何场景下不至于失控，这样你才不至于遇到糟糕的投资业绩。第三，我们不会假设我们能够理解宏观经济，但是我们确实应该知道更多微观的东西。什么是微观呢？就是公司，行业还有证券。在这些具体，比较小的画面的任务清单上，如果你能非常努力的研究这些同时又有正确的技巧，你就可以做到比别人更深入理解这些公司。9、投资的圣杯：便宜货1968 年，我刚进花旗银行工作时，公司投资了所谓的“漂亮五十”，就是美国最优秀、成长最快的五十家公司，包括惠普、德州仪器、可口可乐、默克、礼来。问题是这些公司太贵了，要是你 1968 年买了这些公司，持有五年，到了 1973 年，你会亏损 80% 到 90%，虽然你买的是美国最好的公司。此外，在这些公司里，有的被寄予厚望，最后却陨落了，比如，柯达、宝丽来。现在用胶卷拍照的人很少了，也很少有人用拍立得相机，因为我们用手机可以免费拍无数的照片。这些公司基本就消失了，可当时在 1968 年，人们以非常高的价钱投资这些公司，相信它们永远都会那么完美，想不到它们会消失。关键是，你买很优秀的公司也可能亏大钱。我们从中可以学到一个道理：好公司和好投资不是一回事。买好公司能亏很多钱，而买差公司能赚很多钱。这告诉我们，决定投资收益的肯定不是公司的质地。那么，决定投资收益的是什么？是买入的价格。要是公司价格贵，你可能亏钱。如果质地较差的公司价格便宜，你可能赚钱，甚至是安全地赚钱。这一点对我的投资理念形成非常重要。我认识到，重要的不是买什么，而是花了多少钱买的。关键不是买好东西，而是要买得好。这非常非常重要。10、智者开创，愚人模仿在投资中，每个趋势到最后都会走向极端。当 A 股 2000 点时，投资 A 股的人做的是正确的事。但是后来，股票上涨，其他人也被吸引来了，其他人也买，越买越多，越买越兴奋，还用杠杆买。后来在 5000 点买入的人就遭殃了。这告诉我们，如果你在趋势早期行动，在正确的时机和价格行动，你就能安全地取得良好收益。如果你在趋势末期行动，不管时机和价格，你可能遇上大麻烦。11、永远不要忘记六英尺高的人，可能淹死在平均五尺深的小河里我们做投资，不能只追求平均活下来，必须每天都活下来。因此，我们构建的投资组合必须要能经受得起最恶劣的考验。我们对投资的管理必须要很专业、有很强的风险意识、有很强的保守意识，这样我们就能度过艰难的时光。好日子容易过，日子好的时候，活下来并不难，这时候其实大家过得都很好。难的是谁能度过艰难的时光，那些投资组合过于激进，那些杠杆过高的人挨不过艰难时刻，六英尺高的人却淹死了，说的就是这些人。12、是比别人早了很多，还是做错了，两者很难区分正如前面所说的，投资面对的是未来，在投资领域，做正确的事情很困难，始终在正确的时机做正确的事情是不可能的。也就是说，即使我们做的事情是对的，我们的时机可能不是完全正确。我们很可能太早了，要是太晚，可能就麻烦了。所以你应该希望自己太早了。但是如果你太早了，在一段时间里，看起来你是做错了。当 A 股达到 4000 点时，有些人说不行，太危险了，他们离场了。从 4000 点到 5000 点，看起来他们错了，他们自己也觉得错了，他们可能很后悔在 4000 点离场，只能看着别人一路赚钱到 5000 点。他们觉得做错了，其实他们是对的，只是太早了。我们对时机的把握永远都不可能准确无误。你必须有勇气、有信念，如果自己做的事情有充分的理由，最后事实终将证明你的行动是理智的。我自己就必须有勇气。我买价格正在下跌的东西，我买是因为便宜，是因为跌了，我喜欢，我就买了。它会继续下跌。我必须要很自信，相信自己是正确的。不能因为继续跌，就卖了。所以你要牢记，在事实最终证明你是正确的之前，是比别人早了很多，还是做错了，两者很难区分。13、资产管理人的任务是什么第一，控制风险。资产管理人的任务是什么？是赚很多钱？击败市场？是跑赢华尔街？这些我们都不同意。资产管理经理的第一工作是控制风险。我们橡树资产把风险控制放在最高级别来看待。我们把自己定位为一个另类的资产管理人。我们不投资主流的股票，主流的债券，我们发掘教少被关注的公司债，可转换证券，不良债券，可控投资（能源，基础建设），房地产，公开上市的股票（低估），新兴市场等，对应每一个类别，我们都有自己的投资策略。第二，稳定性。我们的投资绩效不会今年排名第一，然后明年排最后。我们一般在中间，因为我们杰出的风险控制，我们会在艰难的时段会突颖而出。我们在过去30年达成了这个目标。我们获得平均的收益，平均收益在牛市已经算是可以了，牛市每个人都赚钱，这已经足够了，但是我们的客户想要我们在熊市的时候业绩能够超出平均水平。非常简单的概括就是：牛市我们获得平均收益，熊市我们获得超额收益。如果我们能够一年又一年的，数十年的达成这个目标，会出现什么情况呢？我们的业绩波动性会低于平均水平。整体高出平均收益的回报，就是因为我们在熊市杰出的表现让我们把这个目标做到了，这也确实是很有必要的，这样我们的客户就会感到开心。我认为这就是我们公司成长的秘密，我们经过20年达到千亿美元的规模，从2006的35亿到达今天1000亿，我们真正开始资产管理业务是在2007年，2008年正是金融危机期间，我们至少在2007年接受了100亿资金，因为我们的业绩在熊市的时候会好过平均水平，我们能够为人们展示这个投资结果，大家就觉得橡树资本值得信赖，有能力交付一个持续的稳定的投资成绩。我们就成长了！第三，我们寻找的是不太有效的市场那部分。我们认为人们能够理解的那部分市场，投资者要获得优势去赚钱，是非常困难的；但是对于人们通常不能理解的那部分市场，你能够做到相对好一点，像债券，可转债券，个人抵押，基础实施建设，房地产，新兴市场......这些项目获得投资优势相对要容易一点，但也没那么容易，只是相对于充分有效的市场上的产品相对容易一点。第四，我们相信宏观经济的预测不是成功投资的关键。前面已经讲过，我不相信宏观预测行得通。我认为，宏观预测不是成功投资的必要条件。我所知道的所有的成功的投资者，甚至包括巴菲特在内，都不是因为宏观预测比别人做得更好才取得成功的。他们取得成功靠的是他们关于公司、行业和证券的知识。最后一点，我们不猜测市场涨跌。在管理资金时，我们不会因为我们认为市场要涨了，就把钱投进去，认为市场要跌了，就把钱拿出来。这样猜涨跌太容易错了。我们就是进入市场，然后基本就留在市场里。但是我们会从市场资产的价格和周围投资者的心理出发，调整进取或保守的程度。长期投资成功不是通过伟大的投资取得的，以棒球为喻，不是来自偶尔打出本垒打，投资者的长期成功源于构建一个安全的投资组合，其中失败的很少、糟糕的年份很少。要是你能把这件看起来简单、其实很难的事情做好，你就能在几十年里取得非常成功的投资业绩。这是我们的目标，我认为我们已经做到了。这就是我想和大家分享的。14、关于资产配置，霍华德建议1、正如鸡蛋不要放在同一个篮子里，我们对未来未知，因此每个人都该多元化投资。2、没有“Magic Number”（具体的投资配置比例）。对于投资者来说，投资需要一步步来，感觉好了，就多做一点，循序渐进，如果不了解，投资过多只会更糟，可以犯错，但不能血本无归。3、同时也不鼓励投资组合中用极小的比例（小于5%）去投资你看好的方面，因为过小的投资无论怎样的表现对你的组合起到的作用很小，没有意义。4、不要投资不理解的东西，如果完全不懂，就不要去做。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2890,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097661560,"gmtCreate":1645445177639,"gmtModify":1676534028464,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581989768565324","idStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097661560","repostId":"1179897507","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179897507","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"点拾是由行业最专业的投资研究人组成，专注于中国和海外新兴领域的互联网，消费，金融等行业研究。我们的研究，已经获得行业内最优秀的投资者认可，特别是消费，科技互联网和跨境比较是我们的优势。我们相信自己的努力一定能为您的投资助力。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"点拾投资","id":"67","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fe5d79ff06041f8a434a6ad9836f2e6"},"pubTimestamp":1645423968,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179897507?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-21 14:12","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Munger: How to face the huge pullback/retracement in investing?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179897507","media":"点拾投资","summary":"导读：这段时间市场出现了比较大的调整，也导致许多人的投资组合有所回撤。那么投资大师又是如何面对回撤的呢？今天分享一篇2019年我的好友，也是很优秀的基金经理黄韵翻译过的一篇关于查理·芒格如何面对回撤文","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Introduction:</b>During this period, the market has seen a relatively big adjustment, which also led to a pullback/retracement in many people's investment portfolios. So how do investment gurus face pullback/retracement? Today, I would like to share an article on how Charlie Munger faced pullback/retracement translated by my friend and excellent fund manager Huang Yun in 2019. Even today, it is particularly appropriate. This also shows from the side that no matter how good the company is, there is a huge pullback/retracement every few years.<b>Foreword:</b></p><p>The content of this chapter describes a slightly cruel real market, that is, both a long-term upward market and a long-term upward company will inevitably experience large downward fluctuations, which is very similar to the market environment we are in at present. How to face market losses calmly is quite difficult for any investor, because we have to consider not only the volatility of the investment portfolio, but also the feelings of fund holders. The demands of these two aspects are also contradictory in some extremely downward market environments. Maybe we as investors have the ability to bear market losses, but we may lose our investors as a result. As a great investment mentor, Munger's personal experience gives us a good lesson on how to really have patience, discipline, and the ability to not go crazy even when suffering losses and adversity.</p><p><b>Learn to bear losses</b></p><p><i><b>You need to have patience, discipline and the ability not to go crazy even in the face of loss and adversity.</b></i></p><p><i><b>-Charlie Munger, 2005</b></i></p><p>Without a doubt,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Are three of the most successful companies in the past decade. Their products have profoundly changed the way we live, and if their shareholders can stick to their shares for a long time, these shareholders will also receive huge investment returns. However, one of the oldest financial rules is that returns are always accompanied by risks. If you want to make a huge return on your investment, you are also doomed to take the risks that come with it.</p><p>Since its initial listing in 1997, Amazon's stock price has risen as much as 38,600%, equivalent to a compound annual rate of return of 35.5%. This means that an initial investment of $1,000 will become $387,000 by today. But in reality, the difficulty of actually turning that $1,000 into $387,000 over the past 20 years cannot be underestimated. Three times in history, Amazon's share price has fallen by more than 50%. The first was from December 1999 to October 2001, when it lost 95% of its market capitalization. During that time, the initial hypothetical $1,000 investment would have fallen from a high of $54,433 to $3,045, a loss of $51,388.</p><p>This is why it is not simple to say that being able to buy and hold a long-term winner. Perhaps you do know that \"Amazon is going to change the world,\" but even that won't make investing any easier.</p><p>Another revolutionary company, Netflix, has a compound yield of 38% since it went public in May 2002. But achieving this gain is also almost beyond the investment discipline one can afford. Netflix's share price has fallen by more than 50% four times, and it fell by more than 82% between July 2011 and September 2012. This amounts to an initial investment of $1,000 rising to $36,792 and then shrinking to $6,629. Will investors really be able to live with their initial investment in pullback/retracement more than thirty times? Especially the 500% gain disappeared in just 14 months!</p><p>Google is the youngest of the three, with a compounded annual rate of return of 25% since going public in 2004. He offers investors a better investment experience than holding Amazon or Netflix. Google's share price has fallen more than 50% only once, when it fell 65% between November 2007 and November 2008. A lot of investors couldn't stand this period when his stock price saw a sharp pullback/retracement. During these 264 days, Google's turnover reached $845 billion, while Google's average market value at that time was less than $153 billion. That said, shares were changed hands 5.5 times during that time, which cost many investors the opportunity to earn 515% returns over the next eight years.</p><p>Charlie Munger has never been interested in investing in companies such as Amazon, Netflix and Google. But the companies he has invested in for a long time that have allowed him to earn huge investment returns have also experienced huge pullback/retracement in a short period of time. Munger,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Vice Chairman of Hathaway, known for being a longtime partner of Warren Buffett. His intelligent and philosophical quotes are collectively called Mungerism.<b><i>He likes to think from multiple perspectives with different ways of thinking, and one of his famous quotes is \"If you know where I will die, then I will never go to that place\". \"People count too much and think too little,\" he said at Berkshire Hathaway's 2002 shareholder meeting.</i></b></p><p>One thing that separates Munger from most of us mediocre people is that he will never be drawn to investments outside his circle of competence. He once said \"We have three baskets, which are in, out, and too hard\". Investors should all follow his advice \"If the investment target is too difficult to analyze, we turn to other investment targets. Is there anything simpler than that?\".</p><p>Today, we have a lot of new products in the market that serve investors, and these products are like those purple and green fishing baits: I think the reason why our investment management is in trouble is as revealed by the following conversation I had with the tackle boss. I asked him, \"My God, these purple and green baits! Do fish really get hooked for this?\", and he said, \"Sir, I don't sell fish\".</p><p>In 1948, Munger graduated from Harvard Law School and followed in his father's footsteps to successfully carve out a career in law. In the early years of Munger's investing career, he earned his first million dollars by investing in real estate projects. His investing enthusiasm was ignited in 1959, the year Ed Davis introduced him to Buffett as his first investors. Buffett was surprised that he easily got $100,000 from Ed Davis, because Davis didn't seem to pay much attention to Buffett's investment strategy. The reason for this is that Buffett resembles Charlie Munger, another investor Davis wholeheartedly trusts. The two of them were so similar that Davis once filled out Munger's name on a check to Buffett.</p><p>Munger and Buffett hit it off. After years of communication, learning, and sharing with Buffett, Munger and other partners founded a law firm in 1962 (Munger, Tolles & Olson; Charlie left in 1965), and he also founded a hedge fund firm (Wheeler, Munger & Company).</p><p>Munger's investment performance is remarkable. From 1962 to 1969, the fund returned an incredible 37.1% per annum before rates. Especially when you look at the market environment at that time, this achievement is even more commendable. In these eight years, picking stocks has not been a simple task. In fact, the S&P 500, including Dividend, has only gained 6.6% in the same time. For the entire 14 years of the fund's existence, Munger's average annual return was 24%, with a compound rate of return of 19.82%, much higher than the index, and the S&P 500 (including Dividend) compounded rate of return was only 5.2% during the same period. Munger's limited partners will be profitable if they can persist with Munger, but this is not as easy as holding Amazon all the time.</p><p>One of the best lessons investors can learn from past history is that there are no good times without bad times. A long-term investment often contains large losses in short-term stages. If you can't accept short-term losses, it will be hard for you to reap long-term market returns. Munger said:</p><p><b><i>If you can't take two, three or more market declines of more than 50% in a century in stride, you are not a good investor, and you can only earn relatively mediocre investment returns compared to investors who can rationally handle market volatility</i></b>。</p><p>Warren Buffett once said of Munger: \"He is willing to accept greater ups and downs in performance. He happens to be a person with a concentrated psychological structure\". Of course, Munger is not only so simple as focus, his focus is based on diverse thinking at a higher level. At the end of 1974, 61% of its funds were invested in blue-chip printing companies. In that worst bear market since the Great Depression, this company did serious damage to Munger's portfolio. The blue-chip printing company's sales exceeded $124 million that year. But it soon began to decline, with sales plummeting to $9 million by 1982 and only $25,000 by 2006. \"Considering the initial business of Blue Chip Printing Company,\" I predicted that its sales would drop from $120 million to less than $100,000, so I predicted from the beginning that its business alone would almost be a failure business \"\".</p><p>However, Blue Chip Printing Company, as an important asset of fund investment, later provided a large amount of funds for the acquisition of See's Candy, Buffalo Evening News and Wesco Financial Company, and was incorporated into Berkshire Hathaway in 1983.</p><p>Munger lost 31.9% in 1973 (compared to-13.1% for the Dow Jones Industrial) and 31.5% in 1974 (compared to-23.1% for the Dow). Munger said, \"We were crushed by the market between 1973 and 1974, not because of truly undervalued value, but market value because our publicly traded securities had to trade at less than half of their true value.\" It was a tough experience — 1973 to 1974 was a very unpleasant experience. \"Munger was not alone, and it was a tough process for many great investors. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway fell from $80 in December 1972 to $40 in December 1974. The bear market of 1973 to 1974, the S&P 500, fell 50% (the Dow Jones Industrials fell 46.6%, straight back to 1958 levels).</p><p><b><i>The $1,000 invested with Charlie Munger from January 1, 1973 would become $467 by January 1, 1975. Even as the fund rose 73.2% in 1975, Munger lost its biggest investor, frustrating him and leading him to the decision to liquidate the fund.</i></b>This fund has earned a compounded return of 24.3% before deductions throughout its lifetime even through a brutal period of history from 1973 to 1974.</p><p>It's not just those star stocks that will drop more than 50%. Those indexes with long-term compound growth are also likely to have a pullback/retracement at one point. The Dow has grown 26,400% since 1914, which contains nine pullback/retracement over 30%. The Dow fell more than 90% during the Great Depression and did not return to its 1929 high until 1955. The Dow Jones index, a blue-chip index, experienced two major pullback/retracement in the first decade of the twenty-first century (a 38% decline during the tech bubble and a 54% decline during the financial crisis).</p><p>For most ordinary investors like you and me, if we are looking for a high return on our investment, huge losses are doomed to be a part of it, whether the investment cycle is a few years or a lifetime. Munger once said \"we are passionate about keeping it simple\". You can simplify everything you want, but it won't keep you away from losing money. Even portfolios with 50/50 equity and bond allocations lost 25% during the financial crisis.</p><p><b><i>There are several ways to deal with losses. The first is that the loss is absolute, i.e. the loss of your investment.</i></b>In Munger's case, he rarely had absolute losses. During his time running his hedge fund, he experienced a 53% decline, and his Berkshire Hathaway stock has fallen more than 20% on six occasions. For the unfamiliar, pullback/retracement is the downside from the high. In other words, it happened six times that Berkshire Hathaway fell more than 20% after hitting an all-time high.</p><p><b><i>The second type of loss is relative, your opportunity cost.</i></b>In the late nineties, when internet stocks took the country by storm, Berkshire didn't invest in them. It also took their toll. From June 1998 to March 2000, Berkshire fell 49%. What's more painful, however, is that Internet stocks continue to soar. The Nasdaq 100 is up 270% over the same period! In a 1999 Berkshire Hathaway letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett wrote that \"relative returns are our concern, and during the same period, bad relative returns have resulted in unsatisfactory absolute returns\".</p><p>Whether you invest in stocks or indexes, bad relative returns are a problem to face in investing. In the five-year dot-com bubble, Berkshire Hathaway's earnings performance lagged the S&P 500 by 117%! At the time, many people questioned whether Munger and Buffett were out of touch with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600628\">New World</a>。</p><p>The reason why Munger's wealth has continued to compound over the past 55 years is, in his own words:<i><b>Warren and I are not geniuses. We can't play chess or become piano players blindfolded. But our achievements are excellent because we are dominant in temperament, which is enough to compensate for our lack of IQ.</b></i></p><p>You have to be able to take the loss in stride. The right time to sell is not after the stock price has fallen. If you invest this way, you may be doomed to not achieve good long-term returns. Learn from history and don't try to avoid losses. Losses are inevitable. Instead, focus on ensuring that you don't put yourself in a situation where you will be forced to sell. If you know that stocks have fallen by more than 50% at one time, which will undoubtedly happen again in the future, make sure you can face and take on such situations in the future.</p><p>How to do it? Here's an example. Let's say your portfolio is worth $100,000 and you know you can't stand a loss of more than $30,000. Assuming that if the value of the stock is reduced in half and the bond will retain its value (which is definitely an assumption, there is no guarantee), then don't allocate more than 60% of the equity assets. That way even if those 60% of assets fall by half, you should be okay.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Munger: How to face the huge pullback/retracement in investing?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMunger: How to face the huge pullback/retracement in investing?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/67\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fe5d79ff06041f8a434a6ad9836f2e6);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">点拾投资 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-21 14:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Introduction:</b>During this period, the market has seen a relatively big adjustment, which also led to a pullback/retracement in many people's investment portfolios. So how do investment gurus face pullback/retracement? Today, I would like to share an article on how Charlie Munger faced pullback/retracement translated by my friend and excellent fund manager Huang Yun in 2019. Even today, it is particularly appropriate. This also shows from the side that no matter how good the company is, there is a huge pullback/retracement every few years.<b>Foreword:</b></p><p>The content of this chapter describes a slightly cruel real market, that is, both a long-term upward market and a long-term upward company will inevitably experience large downward fluctuations, which is very similar to the market environment we are in at present. How to face market losses calmly is quite difficult for any investor, because we have to consider not only the volatility of the investment portfolio, but also the feelings of fund holders. The demands of these two aspects are also contradictory in some extremely downward market environments. Maybe we as investors have the ability to bear market losses, but we may lose our investors as a result. As a great investment mentor, Munger's personal experience gives us a good lesson on how to really have patience, discipline, and the ability to not go crazy even when suffering losses and adversity.</p><p><b>Learn to bear losses</b></p><p><i><b>You need to have patience, discipline and the ability not to go crazy even in the face of loss and adversity.</b></i></p><p><i><b>-Charlie Munger, 2005</b></i></p><p>Without a doubt,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Are three of the most successful companies in the past decade. Their products have profoundly changed the way we live, and if their shareholders can stick to their shares for a long time, these shareholders will also receive huge investment returns. However, one of the oldest financial rules is that returns are always accompanied by risks. If you want to make a huge return on your investment, you are also doomed to take the risks that come with it.</p><p>Since its initial listing in 1997, Amazon's stock price has risen as much as 38,600%, equivalent to a compound annual rate of return of 35.5%. This means that an initial investment of $1,000 will become $387,000 by today. But in reality, the difficulty of actually turning that $1,000 into $387,000 over the past 20 years cannot be underestimated. Three times in history, Amazon's share price has fallen by more than 50%. The first was from December 1999 to October 2001, when it lost 95% of its market capitalization. During that time, the initial hypothetical $1,000 investment would have fallen from a high of $54,433 to $3,045, a loss of $51,388.</p><p>This is why it is not simple to say that being able to buy and hold a long-term winner. Perhaps you do know that \"Amazon is going to change the world,\" but even that won't make investing any easier.</p><p>Another revolutionary company, Netflix, has a compound yield of 38% since it went public in May 2002. But achieving this gain is also almost beyond the investment discipline one can afford. Netflix's share price has fallen by more than 50% four times, and it fell by more than 82% between July 2011 and September 2012. This amounts to an initial investment of $1,000 rising to $36,792 and then shrinking to $6,629. Will investors really be able to live with their initial investment in pullback/retracement more than thirty times? Especially the 500% gain disappeared in just 14 months!</p><p>Google is the youngest of the three, with a compounded annual rate of return of 25% since going public in 2004. He offers investors a better investment experience than holding Amazon or Netflix. Google's share price has fallen more than 50% only once, when it fell 65% between November 2007 and November 2008. A lot of investors couldn't stand this period when his stock price saw a sharp pullback/retracement. During these 264 days, Google's turnover reached $845 billion, while Google's average market value at that time was less than $153 billion. That said, shares were changed hands 5.5 times during that time, which cost many investors the opportunity to earn 515% returns over the next eight years.</p><p>Charlie Munger has never been interested in investing in companies such as Amazon, Netflix and Google. But the companies he has invested in for a long time that have allowed him to earn huge investment returns have also experienced huge pullback/retracement in a short period of time. Munger,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Vice Chairman of Hathaway, known for being a longtime partner of Warren Buffett. His intelligent and philosophical quotes are collectively called Mungerism.<b><i>He likes to think from multiple perspectives with different ways of thinking, and one of his famous quotes is \"If you know where I will die, then I will never go to that place\". \"People count too much and think too little,\" he said at Berkshire Hathaway's 2002 shareholder meeting.</i></b></p><p>One thing that separates Munger from most of us mediocre people is that he will never be drawn to investments outside his circle of competence. He once said \"We have three baskets, which are in, out, and too hard\". Investors should all follow his advice \"If the investment target is too difficult to analyze, we turn to other investment targets. Is there anything simpler than that?\".</p><p>Today, we have a lot of new products in the market that serve investors, and these products are like those purple and green fishing baits: I think the reason why our investment management is in trouble is as revealed by the following conversation I had with the tackle boss. I asked him, \"My God, these purple and green baits! Do fish really get hooked for this?\", and he said, \"Sir, I don't sell fish\".</p><p>In 1948, Munger graduated from Harvard Law School and followed in his father's footsteps to successfully carve out a career in law. In the early years of Munger's investing career, he earned his first million dollars by investing in real estate projects. His investing enthusiasm was ignited in 1959, the year Ed Davis introduced him to Buffett as his first investors. Buffett was surprised that he easily got $100,000 from Ed Davis, because Davis didn't seem to pay much attention to Buffett's investment strategy. The reason for this is that Buffett resembles Charlie Munger, another investor Davis wholeheartedly trusts. The two of them were so similar that Davis once filled out Munger's name on a check to Buffett.</p><p>Munger and Buffett hit it off. After years of communication, learning, and sharing with Buffett, Munger and other partners founded a law firm in 1962 (Munger, Tolles & Olson; Charlie left in 1965), and he also founded a hedge fund firm (Wheeler, Munger & Company).</p><p>Munger's investment performance is remarkable. From 1962 to 1969, the fund returned an incredible 37.1% per annum before rates. Especially when you look at the market environment at that time, this achievement is even more commendable. In these eight years, picking stocks has not been a simple task. In fact, the S&P 500, including Dividend, has only gained 6.6% in the same time. For the entire 14 years of the fund's existence, Munger's average annual return was 24%, with a compound rate of return of 19.82%, much higher than the index, and the S&P 500 (including Dividend) compounded rate of return was only 5.2% during the same period. Munger's limited partners will be profitable if they can persist with Munger, but this is not as easy as holding Amazon all the time.</p><p>One of the best lessons investors can learn from past history is that there are no good times without bad times. A long-term investment often contains large losses in short-term stages. If you can't accept short-term losses, it will be hard for you to reap long-term market returns. Munger said:</p><p><b><i>If you can't take two, three or more market declines of more than 50% in a century in stride, you are not a good investor, and you can only earn relatively mediocre investment returns compared to investors who can rationally handle market volatility</i></b>。</p><p>Warren Buffett once said of Munger: \"He is willing to accept greater ups and downs in performance. He happens to be a person with a concentrated psychological structure\". Of course, Munger is not only so simple as focus, his focus is based on diverse thinking at a higher level. At the end of 1974, 61% of its funds were invested in blue-chip printing companies. In that worst bear market since the Great Depression, this company did serious damage to Munger's portfolio. The blue-chip printing company's sales exceeded $124 million that year. But it soon began to decline, with sales plummeting to $9 million by 1982 and only $25,000 by 2006. \"Considering the initial business of Blue Chip Printing Company,\" I predicted that its sales would drop from $120 million to less than $100,000, so I predicted from the beginning that its business alone would almost be a failure business \"\".</p><p>However, Blue Chip Printing Company, as an important asset of fund investment, later provided a large amount of funds for the acquisition of See's Candy, Buffalo Evening News and Wesco Financial Company, and was incorporated into Berkshire Hathaway in 1983.</p><p>Munger lost 31.9% in 1973 (compared to-13.1% for the Dow Jones Industrial) and 31.5% in 1974 (compared to-23.1% for the Dow). Munger said, \"We were crushed by the market between 1973 and 1974, not because of truly undervalued value, but market value because our publicly traded securities had to trade at less than half of their true value.\" It was a tough experience — 1973 to 1974 was a very unpleasant experience. \"Munger was not alone, and it was a tough process for many great investors. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway fell from $80 in December 1972 to $40 in December 1974. The bear market of 1973 to 1974, the S&P 500, fell 50% (the Dow Jones Industrials fell 46.6%, straight back to 1958 levels).</p><p><b><i>The $1,000 invested with Charlie Munger from January 1, 1973 would become $467 by January 1, 1975. Even as the fund rose 73.2% in 1975, Munger lost its biggest investor, frustrating him and leading him to the decision to liquidate the fund.</i></b>This fund has earned a compounded return of 24.3% before deductions throughout its lifetime even through a brutal period of history from 1973 to 1974.</p><p>It's not just those star stocks that will drop more than 50%. Those indexes with long-term compound growth are also likely to have a pullback/retracement at one point. The Dow has grown 26,400% since 1914, which contains nine pullback/retracement over 30%. The Dow fell more than 90% during the Great Depression and did not return to its 1929 high until 1955. The Dow Jones index, a blue-chip index, experienced two major pullback/retracement in the first decade of the twenty-first century (a 38% decline during the tech bubble and a 54% decline during the financial crisis).</p><p>For most ordinary investors like you and me, if we are looking for a high return on our investment, huge losses are doomed to be a part of it, whether the investment cycle is a few years or a lifetime. Munger once said \"we are passionate about keeping it simple\". You can simplify everything you want, but it won't keep you away from losing money. Even portfolios with 50/50 equity and bond allocations lost 25% during the financial crisis.</p><p><b><i>There are several ways to deal with losses. The first is that the loss is absolute, i.e. the loss of your investment.</i></b>In Munger's case, he rarely had absolute losses. During his time running his hedge fund, he experienced a 53% decline, and his Berkshire Hathaway stock has fallen more than 20% on six occasions. For the unfamiliar, pullback/retracement is the downside from the high. In other words, it happened six times that Berkshire Hathaway fell more than 20% after hitting an all-time high.</p><p><b><i>The second type of loss is relative, your opportunity cost.</i></b>In the late nineties, when internet stocks took the country by storm, Berkshire didn't invest in them. It also took their toll. From June 1998 to March 2000, Berkshire fell 49%. What's more painful, however, is that Internet stocks continue to soar. The Nasdaq 100 is up 270% over the same period! In a 1999 Berkshire Hathaway letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett wrote that \"relative returns are our concern, and during the same period, bad relative returns have resulted in unsatisfactory absolute returns\".</p><p>Whether you invest in stocks or indexes, bad relative returns are a problem to face in investing. In the five-year dot-com bubble, Berkshire Hathaway's earnings performance lagged the S&P 500 by 117%! At the time, many people questioned whether Munger and Buffett were out of touch with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600628\">New World</a>。</p><p>The reason why Munger's wealth has continued to compound over the past 55 years is, in his own words:<i><b>Warren and I are not geniuses. We can't play chess or become piano players blindfolded. But our achievements are excellent because we are dominant in temperament, which is enough to compensate for our lack of IQ.</b></i></p><p>You have to be able to take the loss in stride. The right time to sell is not after the stock price has fallen. If you invest this way, you may be doomed to not achieve good long-term returns. Learn from history and don't try to avoid losses. Losses are inevitable. Instead, focus on ensuring that you don't put yourself in a situation where you will be forced to sell. If you know that stocks have fallen by more than 50% at one time, which will undoubtedly happen again in the future, make sure you can face and take on such situations in the future.</p><p>How to do it? Here's an example. Let's say your portfolio is worth $100,000 and you know you can't stand a loss of more than $30,000. Assuming that if the value of the stock is reduced in half and the bond will retain its value (which is definitely an assumption, there is no guarantee), then don't allocate more than 60% of the equity assets. That way even if those 60% of assets fall by half, you should be okay.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d30d3e4a8c584dc0c7143999338c880","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179897507","content_text":"导读：这段时间市场出现了比较大的调整，也导致许多人的投资组合有所回撤。那么投资大师又是如何面对回撤的呢？今天分享一篇2019年我的好友，也是很优秀的基金经理黄韵翻译过的一篇关于查理·芒格如何面对回撤文章。即便放到今天，也特别应景。这从侧面也看到无论是多么优秀的公司，每隔几年都会出现巨大的回撤。前言：这个章节的内容描述了一个略带残酷的现实市场，这就是无论是一个长期向上的市场还是一个长期向上的公司都难免会经历大幅的向下波动，这和我们当下所处的市场环境是何其的相似。而在遭受市场损失时如何从容面对，对于任何投资者而言都是相当不易的，因为我们不仅要考虑投资组合的波动率，我们还要考虑到基金持有人的感受。而这两方面的需求在某些极端下行的市场环境下也是相互矛盾的。也许我们作为投资人有能够承担市场损失的能力，但我们可能会因此失去我们的投资人。芒格作为伟大的投资导师，他的亲身经历给了我们很好的借鉴，如何真的拥有耐心、守纪以及即使遭受损失和身处逆境也不会疯掉的能力。学会承受损失你需要有耐心、守纪以及即使遭受损失和身处逆境也不会疯掉的能力。-查理.芒格，2005毫无疑问，奈飞、亚马逊和谷歌是过去十年中最成功的三个公司。他们的产品深刻地改变了我们生活方式，如果他们的股东能够长期坚持持有他们的股票，这些股东们也将获得巨大的投资收益。然而，最古老的一条金融法则之一就是收益永远和风险相伴。如果你想要获得巨大的投资收益，你也注定要承担相伴而来的风险。自1997年首次上市以来，亚马逊股价涨幅高达38600％，相当于年复合收益率35.5％。 这意味着初始1000美元的投资到今天将变为$ 387,000。 但实际上在过去20年中，要真的将这1000美金变为387,000美元的难度不容小觑。历史上，亚马逊的股价曾有三次跌幅超过50%。第一次是从1999年12月到2001年10月，它跌去了95％的市值。在那段时间内，初始假设的1,000美元投资将会从54,433美元的高位下跌至3,045美元，损失51,388美元。这也就是为什么会说能够买入并持有一个长期的赢家其实并不简单。也许你确实知道“亚马逊将会改变世界”，但即便如此，也不会使投资变得更加容易。另一家革命性的公司奈飞，自2002年5月上市以来的复合收益率为38％。但实现这个收益也几乎超出了人所能承受的投资纪律。奈飞的股价曾有四次跌幅超过50%，其在2011年7月至2012年9月间跌幅超过82%。这相当于初始投资的1,000美元涨到36,792美元，然后萎缩到6,629美元。投资者真的能够忍受他们的初始投资回撤三十多次吗？特别是500%收益在短短14个月内烟消云散！谷歌是这三家公司中最年轻的公司，自2004年上市以来的年复合收益率为25％。他为投资者提供了一个比持有亚马逊或Netflix更好的投资体验。 谷歌的股价只有一次跌幅超过50%，就是在2007年11月至2008年11月间跌幅达到65%。当他的股价大幅回撤时，很多投资都无法忍受这段时期。在这264天内，谷歌的换手量达到8450亿美金，而当时谷歌的平均市值不到1530亿美金。也就是说，这段时间内股票被换手了5.5次，这使很多投资者失去了未来八年能够获得515%回报的机会。查理芒格从来没有对投资亚马逊、奈飞、谷歌这类公司感过兴趣。但他长期投资过的那些让他获得巨大投资收益的公司也曾在短时期内出现过巨大的回撤。芒格，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的副董事长，以作为沃伦巴菲特的长期合作伙伴而闻名。他那些富有智慧和哲理的名言被统称为芒格主义。他喜欢用不同的思维方式从多个角度思考问题，他的名言之一是“如果知道我会死在哪里，那我将永远不去那个地方”。在2002年伯克希尔哈撒韦股东大会上他说“人们算得太多、想得太少”。将芒格和我们大部分平庸的人区分开的一点是他永远不会被他能力圈外的投资所吸引。他曾经说过“我们有三个篮子，分别是进入、退出、太难” 。投资者都应该遵循他的建议“如果投资标的太难分析，我们就转向其他的投资标的。还有比这更简单的事情吗？” 。今天，我们的市场上涌现出很多为投资者服务的新产品，这些产品就像那些紫色和绿色的鱼饵：我想我们的投资管理之所以陷入窘境的原因就像下面这个我和渔具老板的对话所揭示的道理那样。我问他：“我的天，这些紫的和绿的鱼饵！鱼真的会因此而上钩吗？”，他说：“先生，我不卖鱼” 。1948年，芒格毕业于哈佛大学法学院，并追随其父亲的脚步成功开拓了法律事业。在芒格的早期投资生涯中，他通过投资地产项目获得了他的第一个百万美元。1959年他的投资热情被彻底点燃，这一年埃德戴维斯（Ed Davis）作为巴菲特的第一批投资者将他介绍给了巴菲特。巴菲特惊讶于他很轻松的获得了埃德戴维斯的10万美金，因为戴维斯似乎并没有太在意巴菲特的投资策略。这其中的原因在于巴菲特很像戴维斯全心全意信任的另一位投资人查理芒格。他们两人如此之像以至于戴维斯曾经在给巴菲特的支票上填了芒格的名字。芒格和巴菲特一见如故。 在和巴菲特经过多年的沟通、相互学习和分享后，芒格在1962年和其他合伙人创办了一家律师事务所（Munger，Tolles＆Olson; 查理在1965年离开），同时他也创立了一个对冲基金公司（Wheeler，Munger＆Company）。芒格的投资业绩斐然。从1962年到1969年，该基金扣除费率之前的年均回报率达到令人难以置信的37.1％。尤其是当你结合当时的市场环境看的话，这个成绩更是显的难能可贵。在这八年中，挑选股票并不是件简单的事情。 事实上，标准普尔500指数（含股息）在同一时间内只上涨了6.6％。 在整个基金存续的14年内，芒格年均回报率为24％，复合收益率为19.82％，远高于指数，同期标准普尔500指数（含股息）复合收益率仅为5.2％。 芒格的有限合伙人如果能和芒格一道坚持下来也将收益丰厚，然而这件事就像一直坚持持有亚马逊公司一样并不那么容易。投资者从过往历史中可以学到的最好一条经验就是没有坏时光就没有好时光。在一段长期的投资中往往蕴含着短期阶段性的大幅损失。如果你不能接受短期的损失，那你很难收获长期的市场回报。芒格说过：如果你对于在一个世纪内发生两三次或者更多次市场超过50%下跌不能泰然处之，你就不适合做投资，并且和那些具有能理性处理市场波动的投资者相比也只能获得相对平庸的投资收益。沃伦巴菲特曾这样评价芒格：“他愿意接受业绩出现更大的起伏，他恰好是一位心理结构倾向集中的人”。当然芒格不仅是专注这么简单，他的专注是建立在更高层面上的多元化思考。1974年底，其61％的资金投资于蓝筹印花公司。在那个自大萧条以来最糟糕的熊市里，这个公司给芒格的投资组合带来了严重的损害。 蓝筹印花公司的销售额在当年超过了1.24亿美金。但是很快就开始减少，到1982年，销售额锐减至900万美元，到2006年仅为2.5万美金。 “考虑到蓝筹印花公司的初始业务，“我预测到其销售额将从1.2亿美金降到不足10万美金，所以我从开始就预测到了其业务单独看几乎就是一个会失败的业务””。然而蓝筹印花公司作为基金投资的重要的资产，在之后为收购喜诗糖果、布法罗晚报和韦斯科金融公司等提供了大量的资金，并于1983年被纳入伯克希尔哈撒韦公司旗下。芒格在1973年损失了31.9％（相比之下，道琼斯工业指数为-13.1％），在1974年损失了31.5％（相比之下道琼斯指数为-23.1％）。 芒格说：“我们在1973年到1974年间被市场碾压了，并不是因为被真实低估的价值，而是市场价值，因为我们的公开交易证券不得不在低于他们真正价值的一半价格下交易。 “这是一段艰难的经历 -- 1973年至1974年是一个非常不愉快的经历。”芒格并不孤单，对许多伟大的投资者来说，这都是一个很艰难的过程。巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司从1972年12月的80美元跌至1974年12月的40美元。1973年至1974年的熊市标准普尔500指数下跌50％（道琼斯工业指数下跌46.6％，直接回到1958年的水平）。与查理芒格一起从1973年1月1日开始投资的1,000美元到1975年1月1日将变为467美元。即使该基金在1975年上涨了73.2%，但芒格还是失去了其最大的投资人，这让他感到沮丧，并使他做出了清算基金的决定。这只基金在其整个生命周期即使经历了从1973年到1974年的残酷历史时期也获得了扣费前24.3%的复合收益率。不仅仅是那些明星股票会跌幅超过50%。那些长期复合增长的指数在某一个点上也都可能会发生回撤。道琼斯指数自1914年以来增长了26400%，其中包含了9次超过30%的回撤。在大萧条期间道指跌幅超过90%，直到1955年才回到1929年的那个高点。道琼斯指数作为蓝筹股指数在二十一世纪的第一个十年内就发生过两次大幅回撤（科技泡沫破灭期跌幅38%，金融危机期间跌幅54%）。对于像你我这样大多数普通的投资者而言，如果我们要寻求高额的投资回报，那么巨大亏损注定也是其中的一个部分，无论投资周期是几年还是一生。芒格曾经说过“我们热衷于保持简单” 。你可以简化你想要的一切，但这并不会使你远离亏损。即使是50/50的股票和债券配置的投资组合在金融危机期间也损失了25%。有几种方法来处理损失。第一是损失是绝对的，即你的投资损失。在芒格的例子里，他很少有绝对损失。在他管理他的对冲基金期间，他经历过53%的下跌，他持有的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的股票有过6次跌幅超过20%。对于不熟悉的人来说，回撤就是从高点开始的下行。换句话说，伯克希尔哈撒韦创历史新高后下跌超过20%的情况发生了6次。第二种类型的损失是相对的，即你的机会成本。 在九十年代末期，当互联网股票席卷全国时，伯克希尔并没有对其进行投资。这也让他们付出了代价。 从1998年6月到2000年3月，伯克希尔下跌了49%。 然而更痛苦的是，互联网股票在持续飙升。同期纳斯达克100指数上涨了270％！ 在1999年伯克希尔哈撒韦致股东的信中，沃伦巴菲特写道“相对收益是我们关心的问题，在同期，不好的相对收益造成了并不令人满意的绝对收益”。无论你是投资股票还是指数，不好的相对收益都是投资中要面对的一个问题。在五年的互联网泡沫中，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的收益表现落后于标准普尔500指数117％！当时很多人质疑芒格和巴菲特是否脱节与新世界。芒格的财富之所以能够在过去55年内持续复合增长的原因，用他自己的话说就是：沃伦和我并非奇才。我们不能蒙上眼睛下棋或成为钢琴演奏家。但我们的成绩斐然，因为我们在性情上占优势，这足以弥补我们在智商上的不足 。你必须能对损失泰然处之。合适的卖时点并不是在股价已经下跌之后。如果你这样投资，你可能就注定了不会取得好的长期回报。 从历史中学习，不要试图避免损失。 损失是不可避免的。相反，应该专注于确保没有把自己会被迫卖出的境地。如果你知道股票曾经跌幅超过50%，这种情况无疑将来还会发生，请确保你未来能面对和承担这样的情况。如何做？这里有个例子。假设你的投资组合价值10万美元并且你知道你不能忍受超过3万美元的损失。假设如果股票价值减少一半而债券将保留价值（这绝对是一个假设，没有任何保证），那就不要配置超过60%的股票资产。那样即使这60%的资产下跌一半，你也应该还好。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9093209633,"gmtCreate":1643627498655,"gmtModify":1676533837591,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581989768565324","idStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9093209633","repostId":"9004448317","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9004448317,"gmtCreate":1642676525258,"gmtModify":1676533734534,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667667103859","idStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"Join Tiger Ski Championship, Win a Bonus of Up to USD 2022","htmlText":"2022 is the Year of Tiger in Chinese lunar calendar, it’s also a special year for Tiger Brokers. To celebrate the special year, we want to invite you to join the ski game presented by Tiger Brokers specially, and it’s very easy and interesting game for users to play. Join the game and win a bonus of up to USD 2022 and limited-edition Tiger Toys Spring Festival and Winter Olympic are both on the way, open your Tiger Trade App and play the ski game with us, win golden medals as many as you can! You could have chance to try Lucky Draw when you win medals.The more medal you win, the bigger bonus you may win! Big Rewards are as follow: <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2022/happy-new-year/#/\" target=\"_blank\">Click to Join the Game</a>","listText":"2022 is the Year of Tiger in Chinese lunar calendar, it’s also a special year for Tiger Brokers. To celebrate the special year, we want to invite you to join the ski game presented by Tiger Brokers specially, and it’s very easy and interesting game for users to play. Join the game and win a bonus of up to USD 2022 and limited-edition Tiger Toys Spring Festival and Winter Olympic are both on the way, open your Tiger Trade App and play the ski game with us, win golden medals as many as you can! You could have chance to try Lucky Draw when you win medals.The more medal you win, the bigger bonus you may win! Big Rewards are as follow: <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2022/happy-new-year/#/\" target=\"_blank\">Click to Join the Game</a>","text":"2022 is the Year of Tiger in Chinese lunar calendar, it’s also a special year for Tiger Brokers. To celebrate the special year, we want to invite you to join the ski game presented by Tiger Brokers specially, and it’s very easy and interesting game for users to play. Join the game and win a bonus of up to USD 2022 and limited-edition Tiger Toys Spring Festival and Winter Olympic are both on the way, open your Tiger Trade App and play the ski game with us, win golden medals as many as you can! You could have chance to try Lucky Draw when you win medals.The more medal you win, the bigger bonus you may win! Big Rewards are as follow: Click to Join the Game","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b44fa056439fb4010fa55e163d27c3","width":"750","height":"1726"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004448317","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2230,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":418177377399080,"gmtCreate":1743089988582,"gmtModify":1743089992555,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581989768565324","idStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$ </a> little gain&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$ </a> little gain&nbsp;","text":"$Walt Disney(DIS)$ little gain","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15dcc60417d517a8eab86e56f239a283","width":"1176","height":"2224"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/418177377399080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":656924632,"gmtCreate":1683291733827,"gmtModify":1683291733827,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581989768565324","idStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">$宝洁(PG)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">$宝洁(PG)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$宝洁(PG)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8552af8430cf7b919d81388b54f74153","width":"1620","height":"1884"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/656924632","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3275,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":656066100,"gmtCreate":1683208654701,"gmtModify":1683208654701,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581989768565324","idStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">$宝洁(PG)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">$宝洁(PG)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$宝洁(PG)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdaf831dd581026137ab50dd1af6b316","width":"2160","height":"1296"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/656066100","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3370,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947145515,"gmtCreate":1682726201638,"gmtModify":1682726206682,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581989768565324","idStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sell at May and run away","listText":"Sell at May and run away","text":"Sell at May and run away","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947145515","repostId":"9947350102","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9947350102,"gmtCreate":1682596025806,"gmtModify":1682596039870,"author":{"id":"3527667618821228","authorId":"3527667618821228","name":"MillionaireTiger","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc558bf32e48ad6ed6d057026ef55af7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667618821228","idStr":"3527667618821228"},"themes":[],"title":"【Thursday Special】Will You Sell In May And Go Away?","htmlText":"Welcome&nbsp;to&nbsp;this&nbsp;week's&nbsp;Thursday&nbsp;Special!&nbsp;Tomorrow is the last trading day of April. May is here! Happy Labor Day! How are you going to spend your holiday?Sell in May and Go Away” – in 9 out of 11 Countries it Makes Sense to Do So snbchf.comToday we'll talk about “Sell in May and go away”. Do you think there will be a sell-off in May? And why?For example, you may find some clues from the earnings, the trend of <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a> or huge gains since the YTD. Please share your opinions with evidence in the comment. Buy in June and Retire by Noon | Robinhood | Know Your MemeTips:Everyone&nbsp;who&nbsp;shares&nbsp;specific experiences or strategies&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;rewarded.&nbsp;No&nbsp;coins&nbsp;for&nbsp;the&nbsp;","listText":"Welcome&nbsp;to&nbsp;this&nbsp;week's&nbsp;Thursday&nbsp;Special!&nbsp;Tomorrow is the last trading day of April. May is here! Happy Labor Day! How are you going to spend your holiday?Sell in May and Go Away” – in 9 out of 11 Countries it Makes Sense to Do So snbchf.comToday we'll talk about “Sell in May and go away”. Do you think there will be a sell-off in May? And why?For example, you may find some clues from the earnings, the trend of <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a> or huge gains since the YTD. Please share your opinions with evidence in the comment. Buy in June and Retire by Noon | Robinhood | Know Your MemeTips:Everyone&nbsp;who&nbsp;shares&nbsp;specific experiences or strategies&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;rewarded.&nbsp;No&nbsp;coins&nbsp;for&nbsp;the&nbsp;","text":"Welcome to this week's Thursday Special! Tomorrow is the last trading day of April. May is here! Happy Labor Day! How are you going to spend your holiday?Sell in May and Go Away” – in 9 out of 11 Countries it Makes Sense to Do So snbchf.comToday we'll talk about “Sell in May and go away”. Do you think there will be a sell-off in May? And why?For example, you may find some clues from the earnings, the trend of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ or huge gains since the YTD. Please share your opinions with evidence in the comment. Buy in June and Retire by Noon | Robinhood | Know Your MemeTips:Everyone who shares specific experiences or strategies will be rewarded. No coins for the","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a4331c27bf9d5966a836b2a705aea3b0","width":"640","height":"405"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947350102","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955854914,"gmtCreate":1675351463839,"gmtModify":1676538995953,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581989768565324","idStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👀","listText":"👀","text":"👀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955854914","repostId":"1115990913","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115990913","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1675305850,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1115990913?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-02 10:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. stocks are soaring, but there is a hidden \"devil\"! What happened?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115990913","media":"招商宏观静思录","summary":"美联储价格型政策影响短端美债，数量型政策影响中长端美债。海外资产对美联储加息收敛乃至结束加息的定价已充分，但缩表冲击尚未反应。此前海外市场处于最佳组合：美国经济尚未衰退、10Y美债收益率大幅回落；未来","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The Fed's price policy affects short-term U.S. debt, while its quantitative policy affects medium-and long-term U.S. debt. Overseas assets have fully priced the convergence of the Fed's rate hike and even the end of the rate hike, but the shrinking balance sheet shock has not yet reacted. Previously, overseas markets were in the best combination: the U.S. economy has not yet declined, and the yield of 10Y U.S. bonds has dropped sharply; The next few months may face the worst combination: the U.S. economy begins to decline, and the 10Y U.S. bond yield remains indifferent.</b></p><p><b>Continue to slow down rate hike, the dovish interpretation of the market is slightly inappropriate: 1)</b>The Federal Reserve announced a rate hike of 25BP and maintained the $95 billion/month shrinking balance sheet plan, in line with market expectations.<b>2）</b>Continuing to slow down rate hike is related to two factors: inflation has eased; Interest rate-sensitive sectors have reacted to rate hike, but there is a lagging effect of monetary policy, which has not yet been fully manifested and needs to be observed.<b>3）</b>The Fed's operation did not exceed the market expectations before the meeting, and the dovish interpretation may be slightly inappropriate. Before the announcement of the Fed's interest rate resolution, the market's expectation for the Fed's operation was that this interest rate meeting would be 25BP in rate hike, 25BP in March, and then the rate hike would be stopped. From November to December, the Fed would start to consider cutting interest rates. While admitting that inflation is slowing down, Powell also expressed the consideration that inflation is still high and the job market is still resilient, and has not yet mentioned the timing of ending the shrinking balance sheet. In other words, there will be at least one rate hike in the future. This Fed's interest rate meeting has fulfilled the market expectations before the meeting at most.</p><p><b>Back to the economic fundamentals itself: 1) Short-term employment and economic data both exceeded the Fed's previous expectations.</b>The Federal Reserve's December FOMC economic outlook predicts that 2022Q4 U.S. real GDP will grow by 0.50% year-on-year, and the published value will be 0.96%; In December, the Fed expected the unemployment rate to rebound to 3.7%, but it was actually 3.5%. As long as the economic data does not take a sharp turn for the worse in the short term, the Fed does not need to signal more easing.<b>2) However, in the medium term, enterprise costs have plummeted, ISM non-manufacturing PMI has fallen below the boom-bust line, and the cyclical recession of the US economy is approaching.</b>We fitted the comprehensive average cost index of American enterprises with the weights of financing cost, raw material cost and labor cost. Since 1970s, this index has dropped rapidly from its high level eight times, and only after 2011Q3, the United States has not experienced negative economic growth. The metric peaked in 2022Q2 and retreated rapidly in 2022Q3-Q4, signaling the beginning of a slowdown in aggregate U.S. demand. In addition, since the late 1990s, the non-manufacturing PMI of ISM in the United States has only fallen below the boom-bust line during the economic recession. In December, this indicator was only 49.6, which also indicates the recession risk of the United States economy.</p><p><b>The shrinking balance sheet shock seems to be showing: the most comfortable days are over, and the worst combinations have surfaced. 1) The \"demon\" hidden in the details:</b>M2 turned negative year-on-year, for the first time since 1959. Although it will accelerate the decline of inflation, it is also the result of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet. It can be seen that the Fed's shrinking balance sheet has influenced economic factors by affecting money injection and credit derivation.<b>2) Under the dual constraints of shrinking balance sheet and non-US central banks reducing their holdings of US bonds, it is more difficult for the 10-year US bond yield center to move further downward.</b>In the past three months or so, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds dropped from 4.25% to 3.39%, which indicates that the market has taken more into account the impact of cooling economic factors. However, the impact of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet and non-U.S. central banks' reduction of U.S. bonds and the future increase of the debt ceiling on the supply and demand structure of long-term U.S. bonds has not been fully reflected. Although it is difficult for the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds to recover during the economic recession, the continuous reduction of U.S. bonds by the Federal Reserve and non-U.S. central banks also makes the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds not much room for decline for the time being.</p><p><b>In the past quarter, the best combination appeared in the United States: the economy has not yet declined, and the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds has dropped sharply; But the next few months may face the worst combination: the economy begins to decline, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury remains indifferent. Based on this, our judgment on each class of assets is as follows: 1)</b>The yield of 10-year U.S. bonds has entered a fluctuating period, with a fluctuating range of 3.2~3.5%;<b>2）</b>The yield of 2-year U.S. bonds continued to fall, and the inversion of the long and short ends narrowed;<b>3）</b>U.S. stocks started the last drop in killing performance;<b>4）</b>the US Dollar Index or fluctuate in the range of 100-103;<b>5）</b>The above factors have certain negative disturbances to RMB-denominated assets, but internal factors are still the core contradictions of RMB-denominated assets.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>I.</b><b>Continue to slow down rate hike, market dovish interpretation</b></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve announced a rate hike of 25BP and maintained the $95 billion/month shrinking balance sheet plan, in line with market expectations.</b>The Federal Reserve issued a statement at the February interest rate meeting, raising the target interest rate of federal funds by 25BP to the range of 4.50%-4.75%, and said that it would maintain the shrinking balance sheet rhythm of reducing U.S. bonds by $60 billion/month and MBS by $35 billion/month since September.</p><p><b>Combined with Powell's speech, the Fed's continued slowdown rate hike is related to two factors: 1)</b>Acknowledging that inflation has eased (the FOMC's statement in December was that inflation remains high);<b>2）</b>Interest-rate sensitive sectors such as real estate have reacted to rate hike, but the lagging effects of monetary policy on economic activity, inflation and financial development have not yet been fully manifested and need to be observed.</p><p><b>The market interpreted it as dovish, but there seems to be a risk of difference in expectations.</b>After the interest rate meeting, especially after Powell's speech, the yield of U.S. bonds dropped significantly, U.S. stocks rose sharply, and gold also performed to a certain extent. It seems that the market interpreted the Fed's continuous slowdown of rate hike as dovish. But<b>The Fed's operation did not exceed the market expectations before the meeting, and the dovish interpretation may be slightly inappropriate.</b>Before the announcement of the Fed's interest rate resolution on February 1st, the market's expectation for the Fed's operation was that the rate hike of this interest rate meeting would be 25BP, and the interest rate would be raised by 25BP in March. Then the rate hike would be stopped. From November to December, the Fed would start to consider cutting interest rates. After the announcement of the statement, while admitting that inflation is slowing down, Powell also expressed the consideration that inflation is still high and the job market is still resilient, and has not yet mentioned the timing of ending the shrinking balance sheet. In other words, there will be at least one rate hike in the future (if the data is still strong, the possibility of more rate hike is not ruled out, although this possibility is not high). This Fed's interest rate meeting has fulfilled the market expectations before the meeting at most.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d7fa88496368b596b721f5d20e5ada3\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Regarding the future prospects of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, we have three understandings: 1) The rhythm of the Federal Reserve's policy will have certain political considerations, which will inevitably be targeted.</b>After the midterm elections, the Federal Reserve began to slow down. rate hike confirmed the view that we have always emphasized since the end of August last year that \"the midterm elections are the watershed of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy\", and it can be seen that the rhythm of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has certain political considerations. Looking back, the timing of interest rate cuts will probably choose the most critical time window for the economy and politics, instead of releasing the signal of interest rate cuts immediately after the end of the rate hike.<b>2) When rate hike is coming to an end, it is most likely to generate a difference in expectations, and Powell is worried about doing too little.</b>Whether more (rate hike) or less (rate hike) depends entirely on high-frequency data. In his answer to reporter's question, Powell even stressed that the policy risk is that \"doing too little has not effectively controlled inflation\". If the U.S. employment data does not weaken significantly in the next 1-2 months, then not only is the landing of the 25BP rate hike in March a certainty, but the market may even revise the expectation that the rate hike will end after March and the interest rate cut will begin in Q4.<b>3) Market attention is about to turn to shrinking balance sheet.</b>From the experience of 2018-2019, between the end of the rate hike and the start of interest rate cuts, the Fed still needs to end its shrinking balance sheet at a timely time. If the market does not misjudge the Fed's price policy, the attention of the follow-up market will turn to the influence of shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><b>Furthermore, we need to answer three questions: What will be the impact of the Fed's shrinking? Has it been fully digested by the market? When will the U.S. economy need a Fed rate cut?</b></p><p><b>II.</b><b>Back to the economy itself: short-term beat-expectations, but approaching recession</b></p><p><b>Short-term employment and economic data both exceeded the Fed's previous expectations.</b>The Federal Reserve's December FOMC economic outlook predicts that 2022Q4 U.S. real GDP will grow by 0.50% year-on-year, but the final published value is 0.96%; The December economic outlook also expects the unemployment rate to rebound to 3.7% by the end of the year, which is actually 3.5%. In other words, the short-term strength of the US economy is even better than the Fed's assessment, so as long as there is no sharp turn for the worse in the short term, the Fed does not need to give a looser signal. The market's current risk appetite seems to be overdone.</p><p><b>However, in the medium term, corporate costs have plummeted, ISM non-manufacturing PMI has fallen below the boom-bust line, and the cyclical recession of the US economy is approaching.</b>Although we pointed out in our report \"The Resilience of the U.S. Economy and Implications for China's Liberalization\" dated December 28, 2022, in the context of labor shortage in the past two years, low-and middle-income groups with low educational background and lack of work experience before the epidemic were more likely to get high-paid jobs after the epidemic, thus enhancing the resilience of employment, consumption and economic data. But that doesn't prevent a cyclical recession coming to the U.S. economy. We fitted the comprehensive average cost index of American enterprises with the weights of financing cost, raw material cost and labor cost. Since 1970s, this index has dropped rapidly from its high level eight times, and the eight vertices appeared in 1974Q4, 1981Q2, 1990Q4, 2001Q3, 2008Q3, 2011Q3 and 2022Q2 respectively. Previously, after the comprehensive average cost index of American enterprises peaked and fell rapidly, only after 2011Q3, the United States did not experience negative economic growth, and the remaining six times, the United States economy all experienced negative economic growth. This reflects that slowing aggregate demand is the end of rate hike crushing inflation. The metric peaked in 2022Q2 and retreated rapidly in 2022Q3-Q4, signaling the beginning of a slowdown in aggregate U.S. demand. In addition, since the late 1990s, the non-manufacturing PMI of ISM in the United States has only fallen below the boom-bust line during the economic recession. In December, this indicator was only 49.6, which also indicates the recession risk of the United States economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d20bbbc291c206368453d04800c27ebf\" tg-width=\"1029\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd4071d0394b02a49b498cb9d78e97be\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Third, the shrinking balance sheet shock seems to be showing: the most comfortable days are over, and the worst combinations have surfaced</b></p><p><b>The \"devil\" hidden in the details: M2 turned negative year-on-year, which will accelerate the decline of inflation, but it is also the result of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet.</b>In 2020H2, there were concerns about high inflation in the United States in the market. The main logic is that M2 experienced a rare double-digit growth year-on-year. In February 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was as high as 26.9%, the highest since data was available. Not surprisingly, from 2021H2 to 2022H1, the U.S. CPI rose as rapidly and sharply as a wild horse, with a high point of 9.1%, the highest since November 1981. U.S. M2 declined to-1.3% year-on-year in December 2022, turning negative for the first time since 1959.</p><p>If the high level of M2 in the United States contributes to inflation after the epidemic, then the year-on-year negative turn of M2 theoretically means that inflation in the United States may fall more than expected, quickly and sharply. This conclusion supports the Fed's quick end of rate hike. But the question is why the year-on-year growth rate of M2 turned negative? The answer is Fed shrinking balance sheet. As shown in the chart below, each massive Fed balance sheet-sized shock exacerbates the year-over-year M2 volatility. In March 2021, when the year-on-year growth rate of M2 fell from the high point, it just corresponded to the inflection point of the Fed's balance sheet expansion rate. After the Fed ended its balance sheet expansion, the M2 in the United States plummeted sharply, while the M2 turned negative with the same increase was probably the result of shrinking balance sheet. In other words, the Fed's shrinking balance sheet has influenced economic factors by influencing money injection and credit derivation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62ce38069d10ff6a66f708905f4b18f2\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e15a7381a19ae0e1c4f36426f6a813\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The Fed's price-based instruments affect the yield of U.S. bonds with a maturity of 2 years or less, while the quantitative instruments affect the yield of U.S. bonds with a maturity of 10 years or more. At present, it is more difficult for the 10-year U.S. bond yield center to move further downward.</b>Theoretically, under the background of increasing downward risks of economic recession and inflation, the yield center of 10-year U.S. bonds should move further downward, approaching 3% or even lower. But supply and demand are likely to counter this trend. First of all, the Fed's rate hike and interest rate cuts affect the short-term U.S. bond yield more, but not the long-term, but quantitative tools such as QE and shrinking balance sheet directly affect the long-term U.S. bond yield through changes in supply and demand. In addition, long-term US debt demand factors also include non-US central banks increasing or decreasing US debt holdings. The 2022 10-year U.S. Treasury yield high of 4.25% was significantly higher than our expectations at the beginning of last year, but this was not driven by the Fed's rate hike, but the result of economic factors (including high inflation), the Fed's shrinking balance sheet and the resonance of non-U.S. central bank reductions in U.S. debt. In the past three months or so, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds dropped from 4.25% to 3.39%, which indicates that the market has taken more into account the impact of cooling economic factors. However, the impact of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet and non-U.S. central banks' reduction of U.S. bonds and the future increase of the debt ceiling on the supply and demand structure of long-term U.S. bonds has not been fully reflected. Although it is difficult for the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds to recover during the economic recession, the continuous reduction of U.S. bonds by the Federal Reserve and non-U.S. central banks also makes the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds not much room for decline for the time being.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77f03d31965149c1bc8626adce4e6175\" tg-width=\"1009\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>It can be seen that the best combination appeared in the United States in the past quarter: the economy has not yet declined, and the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds has dropped sharply; However, in the next 1-2 quarters, the United States may face the worst combination: the economy begins to decline, and the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds remains indifferent.</b></p><p><b>Fourth, the last decline of U.S. stocks may kick off</b></p><p>In the second half of last year, we have been saying that the U.S. stock market will have the last decline caused by killing performance, but it has never happened. The reason is that the resilience of the U.S. economy still exists and the market has early taken into account the expectation of the Fed's monetary policy shift. In particular, the rebound of U.S. stocks in the past quarter just reflects that \"the economy has not yet declined, and the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds has dropped sharply\". Therefore, the 10-year Schiller cycle-adjusted P/E (CAPE) of the S&P 500 index has returned to a record high of 29.92 times. If, as we expected, the U.S. financial market environment will face the worst combination in the next 1-2 quarters, \"the economy begins to decline, and the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds is constrained by factors such as the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet and the center is difficult to move further downward\", then the U.S. stock market is bound to start the last drop in performance.</p><p>Based on this, our judgment on various types of assets in the coming months is:<b>1）</b>The yield of long-term U.S. bonds has entered a fluctuating period, with a fluctuating range of 3.2~3.5%;<b>2）</b>The yield of short-end U.S. bonds continues to fall, and the inversion of long-and short-end bonds narrows;<b>3）</b>U.S. stocks started the last drop in killing performance;<b>4）</b>the US Dollar Index or fluctuate in the range of 100-103;<b>5）</b>The above factors have certain negative disturbances to RMB-denominated assets.</p><p><b>Risk warning:</b></p><p>The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, the US economy and inflation situation exceeded expectations, and the global epidemic situation exceeded expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1655347333395","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks are soaring, but there is a hidden \"devil\"! 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What happened?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">招商宏观静思录</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-02-02 10:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The Fed's price policy affects short-term U.S. debt, while its quantitative policy affects medium-and long-term U.S. debt. Overseas assets have fully priced the convergence of the Fed's rate hike and even the end of the rate hike, but the shrinking balance sheet shock has not yet reacted. Previously, overseas markets were in the best combination: the U.S. economy has not yet declined, and the yield of 10Y U.S. bonds has dropped sharply; The next few months may face the worst combination: the U.S. economy begins to decline, and the 10Y U.S. bond yield remains indifferent.</b></p><p><b>Continue to slow down rate hike, the dovish interpretation of the market is slightly inappropriate: 1)</b>The Federal Reserve announced a rate hike of 25BP and maintained the $95 billion/month shrinking balance sheet plan, in line with market expectations.<b>2）</b>Continuing to slow down rate hike is related to two factors: inflation has eased; Interest rate-sensitive sectors have reacted to rate hike, but there is a lagging effect of monetary policy, which has not yet been fully manifested and needs to be observed.<b>3）</b>The Fed's operation did not exceed the market expectations before the meeting, and the dovish interpretation may be slightly inappropriate. Before the announcement of the Fed's interest rate resolution, the market's expectation for the Fed's operation was that this interest rate meeting would be 25BP in rate hike, 25BP in March, and then the rate hike would be stopped. From November to December, the Fed would start to consider cutting interest rates. While admitting that inflation is slowing down, Powell also expressed the consideration that inflation is still high and the job market is still resilient, and has not yet mentioned the timing of ending the shrinking balance sheet. In other words, there will be at least one rate hike in the future. This Fed's interest rate meeting has fulfilled the market expectations before the meeting at most.</p><p><b>Back to the economic fundamentals itself: 1) Short-term employment and economic data both exceeded the Fed's previous expectations.</b>The Federal Reserve's December FOMC economic outlook predicts that 2022Q4 U.S. real GDP will grow by 0.50% year-on-year, and the published value will be 0.96%; In December, the Fed expected the unemployment rate to rebound to 3.7%, but it was actually 3.5%. As long as the economic data does not take a sharp turn for the worse in the short term, the Fed does not need to signal more easing.<b>2) However, in the medium term, enterprise costs have plummeted, ISM non-manufacturing PMI has fallen below the boom-bust line, and the cyclical recession of the US economy is approaching.</b>We fitted the comprehensive average cost index of American enterprises with the weights of financing cost, raw material cost and labor cost. Since 1970s, this index has dropped rapidly from its high level eight times, and only after 2011Q3, the United States has not experienced negative economic growth. The metric peaked in 2022Q2 and retreated rapidly in 2022Q3-Q4, signaling the beginning of a slowdown in aggregate U.S. demand. In addition, since the late 1990s, the non-manufacturing PMI of ISM in the United States has only fallen below the boom-bust line during the economic recession. In December, this indicator was only 49.6, which also indicates the recession risk of the United States economy.</p><p><b>The shrinking balance sheet shock seems to be showing: the most comfortable days are over, and the worst combinations have surfaced. 1) The \"demon\" hidden in the details:</b>M2 turned negative year-on-year, for the first time since 1959. Although it will accelerate the decline of inflation, it is also the result of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet. It can be seen that the Fed's shrinking balance sheet has influenced economic factors by affecting money injection and credit derivation.<b>2) Under the dual constraints of shrinking balance sheet and non-US central banks reducing their holdings of US bonds, it is more difficult for the 10-year US bond yield center to move further downward.</b>In the past three months or so, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds dropped from 4.25% to 3.39%, which indicates that the market has taken more into account the impact of cooling economic factors. However, the impact of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet and non-U.S. central banks' reduction of U.S. bonds and the future increase of the debt ceiling on the supply and demand structure of long-term U.S. bonds has not been fully reflected. Although it is difficult for the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds to recover during the economic recession, the continuous reduction of U.S. bonds by the Federal Reserve and non-U.S. central banks also makes the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds not much room for decline for the time being.</p><p><b>In the past quarter, the best combination appeared in the United States: the economy has not yet declined, and the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds has dropped sharply; But the next few months may face the worst combination: the economy begins to decline, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury remains indifferent. Based on this, our judgment on each class of assets is as follows: 1)</b>The yield of 10-year U.S. bonds has entered a fluctuating period, with a fluctuating range of 3.2~3.5%;<b>2）</b>The yield of 2-year U.S. bonds continued to fall, and the inversion of the long and short ends narrowed;<b>3）</b>U.S. stocks started the last drop in killing performance;<b>4）</b>the US Dollar Index or fluctuate in the range of 100-103;<b>5）</b>The above factors have certain negative disturbances to RMB-denominated assets, but internal factors are still the core contradictions of RMB-denominated assets.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>I.</b><b>Continue to slow down rate hike, market dovish interpretation</b></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve announced a rate hike of 25BP and maintained the $95 billion/month shrinking balance sheet plan, in line with market expectations.</b>The Federal Reserve issued a statement at the February interest rate meeting, raising the target interest rate of federal funds by 25BP to the range of 4.50%-4.75%, and said that it would maintain the shrinking balance sheet rhythm of reducing U.S. bonds by $60 billion/month and MBS by $35 billion/month since September.</p><p><b>Combined with Powell's speech, the Fed's continued slowdown rate hike is related to two factors: 1)</b>Acknowledging that inflation has eased (the FOMC's statement in December was that inflation remains high);<b>2）</b>Interest-rate sensitive sectors such as real estate have reacted to rate hike, but the lagging effects of monetary policy on economic activity, inflation and financial development have not yet been fully manifested and need to be observed.</p><p><b>The market interpreted it as dovish, but there seems to be a risk of difference in expectations.</b>After the interest rate meeting, especially after Powell's speech, the yield of U.S. bonds dropped significantly, U.S. stocks rose sharply, and gold also performed to a certain extent. It seems that the market interpreted the Fed's continuous slowdown of rate hike as dovish. But<b>The Fed's operation did not exceed the market expectations before the meeting, and the dovish interpretation may be slightly inappropriate.</b>Before the announcement of the Fed's interest rate resolution on February 1st, the market's expectation for the Fed's operation was that the rate hike of this interest rate meeting would be 25BP, and the interest rate would be raised by 25BP in March. Then the rate hike would be stopped. From November to December, the Fed would start to consider cutting interest rates. After the announcement of the statement, while admitting that inflation is slowing down, Powell also expressed the consideration that inflation is still high and the job market is still resilient, and has not yet mentioned the timing of ending the shrinking balance sheet. In other words, there will be at least one rate hike in the future (if the data is still strong, the possibility of more rate hike is not ruled out, although this possibility is not high). This Fed's interest rate meeting has fulfilled the market expectations before the meeting at most.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d7fa88496368b596b721f5d20e5ada3\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Regarding the future prospects of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, we have three understandings: 1) The rhythm of the Federal Reserve's policy will have certain political considerations, which will inevitably be targeted.</b>After the midterm elections, the Federal Reserve began to slow down. rate hike confirmed the view that we have always emphasized since the end of August last year that \"the midterm elections are the watershed of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy\", and it can be seen that the rhythm of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has certain political considerations. Looking back, the timing of interest rate cuts will probably choose the most critical time window for the economy and politics, instead of releasing the signal of interest rate cuts immediately after the end of the rate hike.<b>2) When rate hike is coming to an end, it is most likely to generate a difference in expectations, and Powell is worried about doing too little.</b>Whether more (rate hike) or less (rate hike) depends entirely on high-frequency data. In his answer to reporter's question, Powell even stressed that the policy risk is that \"doing too little has not effectively controlled inflation\". If the U.S. employment data does not weaken significantly in the next 1-2 months, then not only is the landing of the 25BP rate hike in March a certainty, but the market may even revise the expectation that the rate hike will end after March and the interest rate cut will begin in Q4.<b>3) Market attention is about to turn to shrinking balance sheet.</b>From the experience of 2018-2019, between the end of the rate hike and the start of interest rate cuts, the Fed still needs to end its shrinking balance sheet at a timely time. If the market does not misjudge the Fed's price policy, the attention of the follow-up market will turn to the influence of shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><b>Furthermore, we need to answer three questions: What will be the impact of the Fed's shrinking? Has it been fully digested by the market? When will the U.S. economy need a Fed rate cut?</b></p><p><b>II.</b><b>Back to the economy itself: short-term beat-expectations, but approaching recession</b></p><p><b>Short-term employment and economic data both exceeded the Fed's previous expectations.</b>The Federal Reserve's December FOMC economic outlook predicts that 2022Q4 U.S. real GDP will grow by 0.50% year-on-year, but the final published value is 0.96%; The December economic outlook also expects the unemployment rate to rebound to 3.7% by the end of the year, which is actually 3.5%. In other words, the short-term strength of the US economy is even better than the Fed's assessment, so as long as there is no sharp turn for the worse in the short term, the Fed does not need to give a looser signal. The market's current risk appetite seems to be overdone.</p><p><b>However, in the medium term, corporate costs have plummeted, ISM non-manufacturing PMI has fallen below the boom-bust line, and the cyclical recession of the US economy is approaching.</b>Although we pointed out in our report \"The Resilience of the U.S. Economy and Implications for China's Liberalization\" dated December 28, 2022, in the context of labor shortage in the past two years, low-and middle-income groups with low educational background and lack of work experience before the epidemic were more likely to get high-paid jobs after the epidemic, thus enhancing the resilience of employment, consumption and economic data. But that doesn't prevent a cyclical recession coming to the U.S. economy. We fitted the comprehensive average cost index of American enterprises with the weights of financing cost, raw material cost and labor cost. Since 1970s, this index has dropped rapidly from its high level eight times, and the eight vertices appeared in 1974Q4, 1981Q2, 1990Q4, 2001Q3, 2008Q3, 2011Q3 and 2022Q2 respectively. Previously, after the comprehensive average cost index of American enterprises peaked and fell rapidly, only after 2011Q3, the United States did not experience negative economic growth, and the remaining six times, the United States economy all experienced negative economic growth. This reflects that slowing aggregate demand is the end of rate hike crushing inflation. The metric peaked in 2022Q2 and retreated rapidly in 2022Q3-Q4, signaling the beginning of a slowdown in aggregate U.S. demand. In addition, since the late 1990s, the non-manufacturing PMI of ISM in the United States has only fallen below the boom-bust line during the economic recession. In December, this indicator was only 49.6, which also indicates the recession risk of the United States economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d20bbbc291c206368453d04800c27ebf\" tg-width=\"1029\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd4071d0394b02a49b498cb9d78e97be\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Third, the shrinking balance sheet shock seems to be showing: the most comfortable days are over, and the worst combinations have surfaced</b></p><p><b>The \"devil\" hidden in the details: M2 turned negative year-on-year, which will accelerate the decline of inflation, but it is also the result of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet.</b>In 2020H2, there were concerns about high inflation in the United States in the market. The main logic is that M2 experienced a rare double-digit growth year-on-year. In February 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was as high as 26.9%, the highest since data was available. Not surprisingly, from 2021H2 to 2022H1, the U.S. CPI rose as rapidly and sharply as a wild horse, with a high point of 9.1%, the highest since November 1981. U.S. M2 declined to-1.3% year-on-year in December 2022, turning negative for the first time since 1959.</p><p>If the high level of M2 in the United States contributes to inflation after the epidemic, then the year-on-year negative turn of M2 theoretically means that inflation in the United States may fall more than expected, quickly and sharply. This conclusion supports the Fed's quick end of rate hike. But the question is why the year-on-year growth rate of M2 turned negative? The answer is Fed shrinking balance sheet. As shown in the chart below, each massive Fed balance sheet-sized shock exacerbates the year-over-year M2 volatility. In March 2021, when the year-on-year growth rate of M2 fell from the high point, it just corresponded to the inflection point of the Fed's balance sheet expansion rate. After the Fed ended its balance sheet expansion, the M2 in the United States plummeted sharply, while the M2 turned negative with the same increase was probably the result of shrinking balance sheet. In other words, the Fed's shrinking balance sheet has influenced economic factors by influencing money injection and credit derivation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62ce38069d10ff6a66f708905f4b18f2\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e15a7381a19ae0e1c4f36426f6a813\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The Fed's price-based instruments affect the yield of U.S. bonds with a maturity of 2 years or less, while the quantitative instruments affect the yield of U.S. bonds with a maturity of 10 years or more. At present, it is more difficult for the 10-year U.S. bond yield center to move further downward.</b>Theoretically, under the background of increasing downward risks of economic recession and inflation, the yield center of 10-year U.S. bonds should move further downward, approaching 3% or even lower. But supply and demand are likely to counter this trend. First of all, the Fed's rate hike and interest rate cuts affect the short-term U.S. bond yield more, but not the long-term, but quantitative tools such as QE and shrinking balance sheet directly affect the long-term U.S. bond yield through changes in supply and demand. In addition, long-term US debt demand factors also include non-US central banks increasing or decreasing US debt holdings. The 2022 10-year U.S. Treasury yield high of 4.25% was significantly higher than our expectations at the beginning of last year, but this was not driven by the Fed's rate hike, but the result of economic factors (including high inflation), the Fed's shrinking balance sheet and the resonance of non-U.S. central bank reductions in U.S. debt. In the past three months or so, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds dropped from 4.25% to 3.39%, which indicates that the market has taken more into account the impact of cooling economic factors. However, the impact of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet and non-U.S. central banks' reduction of U.S. bonds and the future increase of the debt ceiling on the supply and demand structure of long-term U.S. bonds has not been fully reflected. Although it is difficult for the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds to recover during the economic recession, the continuous reduction of U.S. bonds by the Federal Reserve and non-U.S. central banks also makes the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds not much room for decline for the time being.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77f03d31965149c1bc8626adce4e6175\" tg-width=\"1009\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>It can be seen that the best combination appeared in the United States in the past quarter: the economy has not yet declined, and the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds has dropped sharply; However, in the next 1-2 quarters, the United States may face the worst combination: the economy begins to decline, and the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds remains indifferent.</b></p><p><b>Fourth, the last decline of U.S. stocks may kick off</b></p><p>In the second half of last year, we have been saying that the U.S. stock market will have the last decline caused by killing performance, but it has never happened. The reason is that the resilience of the U.S. economy still exists and the market has early taken into account the expectation of the Fed's monetary policy shift. In particular, the rebound of U.S. stocks in the past quarter just reflects that \"the economy has not yet declined, and the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds has dropped sharply\". Therefore, the 10-year Schiller cycle-adjusted P/E (CAPE) of the S&P 500 index has returned to a record high of 29.92 times. If, as we expected, the U.S. financial market environment will face the worst combination in the next 1-2 quarters, \"the economy begins to decline, and the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds is constrained by factors such as the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet and the center is difficult to move further downward\", then the U.S. stock market is bound to start the last drop in performance.</p><p>Based on this, our judgment on various types of assets in the coming months is:<b>1）</b>The yield of long-term U.S. bonds has entered a fluctuating period, with a fluctuating range of 3.2~3.5%;<b>2）</b>The yield of short-end U.S. bonds continues to fall, and the inversion of long-and short-end bonds narrows;<b>3）</b>U.S. stocks started the last drop in killing performance;<b>4）</b>the US Dollar Index or fluctuate in the range of 100-103;<b>5）</b>The above factors have certain negative disturbances to RMB-denominated assets.</p><p><b>Risk warning:</b></p><p>The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, the US economy and inflation situation exceeded expectations, and the global epidemic situation exceeded expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r4uvMuadJSAvwYYod3SbBA\">招商宏观静思录</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r4uvMuadJSAvwYYod3SbBA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115990913","content_text":"美联储价格型政策影响短端美债，数量型政策影响中长端美债。海外资产对美联储加息收敛乃至结束加息的定价已充分，但缩表冲击尚未反应。此前海外市场处于最佳组合：美国经济尚未衰退、10Y美债收益率大幅回落；未来数月或将面临最差组合：美国经济开始衰退、10Y美债收益率反而无动于衷。继续降速加息，市场的鸽派解读略显不妥：1）美联储宣布加息25BP，维持950亿美元/月缩表计划，符合市场预期。2）继续降速加息与两点因素有关：通胀有所缓和；利率敏感部门已经对加息做出反应，但货币政策存在滞后影响，尚未充分显现，需要观察。3）美联储操作并未超出会议前的市场预期，鸽派解读恐怕略显不妥。美联储议息决议公布前，市场对于美联储的操作预期就是本次议息会议加息25BP、3月加息25BP，随后停止加息，11-12月美联储将开始考虑降息。鲍威尔在承认通胀放缓之余，亦表达了通胀仍高、就业市场仍有韧性等考虑，并且尚未提及结束缩表的时机，换言之，未来至少还会加息1次，本次美联储议息会议最多是兑现了会前的市场预期。回到经济基本面本身：1）短期就业与经济数据均超美联储此前预期。美联储12月FOMC经济展望预计2022Q4美国实际GDP同比增速为0.50%，公布值为0.96%；12月美联储预期失业率反弹至3.7%，实际为3.5%。只要短期内经济数据没有急转直下，美联储就无须给出更宽松信号。2）但中期来看，企业成本骤降、ISM非制造业PMI跌破荣枯线，美国经济的周期性衰退正在逼近。我们用融资成本、原材料成本与人力成本等权重拟合了美国企业综合平均成本指数，70年代以来该指标有8次自高位快速回落，只有2011Q3后美国未现经济负增长。2022Q2该指标见顶后2022Q3-Q4快速回落，预示了美国总需求开始放缓。此外，90年代末以来美国ISM非制造业PMI仅在经济衰退阶段才会跌破荣枯线，12月该指标仅为49.6，亦预示了美国经济的衰退风险。缩表冲击似乎正在显现：最舒服的日子已过，最差组合浮出水面。1）藏在细节中的“恶魔”：M2同比转负，为1959年以来首次，虽将加速通胀回落、但亦是联储缩表结果。可见，美联储缩表已经通过影响货币投放和信用派生对经济因素产生影响。2）缩表与非美央行减持美债双重约束下，10年期美债收益率中枢进一步下移难度增加。过去三个多月10年期美债收益率自4.25%降至3.39%表明市场更多地计入了经济因素降温的影响，但美联储缩表和非美央行减持美债以及未来上调债务上限对长端美债供需结构的影响尚未充分反应。尽管在经济衰退过程中，10年期美债收益率很难回升，但美联储及非美央行持续减持美债的动作也令10年期美债收益率暂时没有太多下降空间。过去1个季度美国出现了最佳组合：经济尚未衰退、10年期美债收益率大幅回落；但未来数月或将面临最差组合：经济开始衰退、10年期美债收益率反而无动于衷。基于此，我们对于各类资产的判断如下：1）10年期美债收益率进入波动期，波动区间或在3.2~3.5%；2）2年期美债收益率继续回落，长短端倒挂收窄；3）美股开启杀业绩的最后一跌；4）美元指数或在100-103区间波动；5）上述因素对于人民币计价资产存在一定负面扰动，但内因仍是人民币计价资产的核心矛盾。正文一、继续降速加息，市场鸽派解读美联储宣布加息25BP，维持950亿美元/月缩表计划，符合市场预期。美联储发布2月议息会议声明，上调联邦基金目标利率25BP至4.50%-4.75%区间，并表示维持9月以来减持600亿美元/月美债和350亿美元/月MBS的缩表节奏不变。结合鲍威尔讲话来看，美联储本次继续降速加息与两点因素有关：1）承认通胀有所缓和（12月FOMC的表态是通胀仍居高不下）；2）房地产等利率敏感部门已经对加息做出反应，但货币政策对经济活动、通胀和金融发展存在滞后影响，尚未充分显现，需要观察。市场解读为鸽派，但似乎存在预期差风险。议息会议后，特别是鲍威尔讲话后，美债收益率明显回落、美股大涨、黄金也有一定表现，看上去市场将美联储连续减速加息解读为鸽派。但美联储操作并未超出会议前的市场预期，鸽派解读恐怕略显不妥。2月1日美联储议息决议公布前，市场对于美联储的操作预期就是本次议息会议加息25BP、3月加息25BP，随后停止加息，11-12月美联储将开始考虑降息。在声明公布后，鲍威尔在承认通胀放缓之余，亦表达了通胀仍高、就业市场仍有韧性等考虑，并且尚未提及结束缩表的时机，换言之，未来至少还会加息1次（如果数据仍强劲，不排除更多次加息的可能性，尽管这一可能性不高），本次美联储议息会议最多是兑现了会前的市场预期。关于美联储货币政策未来前景，我们有三点理解：1）美联储政策节奏会有一定政治考量，必然会有的放矢。中期选举后美联储就开始减速加息印证了去年8月底以来我们始终强调的观点“中期选举是美联储货币政策的分水岭”，并且由此可见，美联储货币政策节奏带有一定政治考量。往后看，降息时机大概率会选择对经济和政治最为关键的时间窗口，而不会在刚刚结束加息之际就立马释放降息信号。2）加息即将结束之际，最容易产生预期差，鲍威尔担心做得过少。多（加息）一点还是少（加息）一点完全取决于高频数据，鲍威尔在答记者问中甚至强调政策风险是“做得过少并未有效控制通胀”。假若未来1-2个月美国就业数据仍未明显转弱，那么不仅3月落地25BP加息是板上钉钉，市场甚至可能会修正3月后结束加息、Q4开始降息的预期。3）市场注意力即将转向缩表。从2018-2019年的经验看，在结束加息、开始降息之间，美联储还需要择时结束缩表，如果市场对美联储价格型政策没有误判，那么后续市场的注意力就会转向缩表影响。进而，我们需要回答三个问题：美联储缩表会有什么影响？是否已经被市场充分消化？美国经济何时需要联储降息？二、先回到经济本身：短期超预期，但正逼近衰退短期就业与经济数据均超美联储此前预期。美联储12月FOMC经济展望预计2022Q4美国实际GDP同比增速为0.50%，但最终公布值为0.96%；12月经济展望同时预期失业率年底反弹至3.7%，实际为3.5%。换言之，美国经济短期强劲程度甚至好于美联储的评估，那么只要短期内没有急转直下，美联储就无须给出更宽松信号。市场目前的风险偏好似乎有些过度了。但中期来看，企业成本骤降、ISM非制造业PMI跌破荣枯线，美国经济的周期性衰退正在逼近。尽管我们在22年12月28日报告《美国经济的韧性及对中国放开后的启示》中指出，过去两年在劳动力短缺背景下，疫前低教育背景、缺乏工作经验的中低收入群体在疫后更容易获得高薪职位进而增强了就业、消费与经济数据的韧性。但这并不妨碍美国经济即将迎来一次周期性衰退。我们用融资成本、原材料成本与人力成本等权重拟合了美国企业综合平均成本指数，70年代以来该指标有8次自高位快速回落，8个顶点分别出现在1974Q4、1981Q2、1990Q4、2001Q3、2008Q3、2011Q3以及2022Q2。此前，美国企业综合平均成本指数见顶快速回落后只有2011Q3后美国未现经济负增长，其余6次美国经济均现负增长。这反映了总需求放缓才是加息打压通胀的终点。2022Q2该指标见顶后2022Q3-Q4快速回落，预示了美国总需求开始放缓。此外，90年代末以来美国ISM非制造业PMI仅在经济衰退阶段才会跌破荣枯线，12月该指标仅为49.6，亦预示了美国经济的衰退风险。三、缩表冲击似乎正在显现：最舒服的日子已过，最差组合浮出水面藏在细节中的“恶魔”：M2同比转负，虽将加速通胀回落、但亦是联储缩表结果。2020H2市场中出现了担忧美国高通胀的声音，主要逻辑就是M2同比出现了罕见的两位数增长，2021年2月M2同比增幅更是高达26.9%，为有数据以来最高。不出意外，2021H2-2022H1美国CPI同比如脱缰野马般快速、大幅攀升，高点曾达到9.1%，为1981年11月后最高。2022年12月美国M2同增降至-1.3%，为1959年以来首次转负。假若疫后美国M2的高企助长了通胀，那么M2同比转负理论上意味着美国通胀可能会超预期、快速、大幅回落，这一结论支持美联储快速结束加息。但问题在于M2同比增速为何会转负？答案是美联储缩表。如下图所示，每次美联储资产负债表规模的巨震都会加剧M2同比波动。2021年3月M2同比增速自高点回落之际刚好对应着美联储扩表速率拐点，美联储结束扩表后美国M2同增骤降、而M2同增转负则大概率是缩表的结果。换言之，美联储缩表已经通过影响货币投放和信用派生对经济因素产生影响。美联储价格型工具影响2年及以下期限美债收益率、数量型工具则影响10年及以上期限美债收益率，目前看10年期美债收益率中枢进一步下移难度增加。理论上，在经济衰退与通胀下行风险双增的背景下，10年期美债收益率中枢应该进一步下移、逼近3%甚至更低水平。但供需关系可能会对抗这一趋势。首先，美联储加息与降息更多地影响短端美债收益率，不直接影响长端，但QE与缩表等数量型工具则通过供需变化直接影响长端美债收益率。此外，长端美债需求因素还包括非美央行增减持美债行为。2022年10年期美债收益率高点为4.25%，显著高于我们去年初的预期，但这并非联储加息驱动，而是由经济因素（包括高通胀）、美联储缩表与非美央行减持美债共振的结果。过去三个多月10年期美债收益率自4.25%降至3.39%表明市场更多地计入了经济因素降温的影响，但美联储缩表和非美央行减持美债以及未来上调债务上限对长端美债供需结构的影响尚未充分反应。尽管在经济衰退过程中，10年期美债收益率很难回升，但美联储及非美央行持续减持美债的动作也令10年期美债收益率暂时没有太多下降空间。由此可见，过去1个季度美国出现了最佳组合：经济尚未衰退、10年期美债收益率大幅回落；但未来1-2个季度美国或将面临最差组合：经济开始衰退、10年期美债收益率反而无动于衷。四、美股最后一跌或将拉开帷幕去年下半年我们一直在说美股会出现杀业绩引发的最后一跌，但一直没有出现，原因就在于美国经济韧性尚存且市场早早计入了联储货币政策转向预期。特别是过去一个季度美股的反弹恰好映射了“经济尚未衰退、10年期美债收益率大幅回落”，因此，标普500指数的10年期席勒周期调整市盈率（CAPE）重回29.92倍的历史高位。假若如我们所预计的，未来1-2个季度美国金融市场环境将面临最差组合“经济开始衰退，10年期美债收益率反而受联储缩表等因素约束中枢难以进一步下移”，那么，美股势必开启杀业绩的最后一跌。基于此，我们对于未来数月各类资产的判断是：1）长端美债收益率进入波动期，波动区间或在3.2~3.5%；2）短端美债收益率继续回落，长短端倒挂收窄；3）美股开启杀业绩的最后一跌；4）美元指数或在100-103区间波动；5）上述因素对于人民币计价资产存在一定负面扰动。风险提示：美联储货币政策，美经济与通胀形势超预期，全球疫情超预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3219,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955855520,"gmtCreate":1675351077660,"gmtModify":1676538995884,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581989768565324","idStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$ &nbsp;</a>good👍🏻","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$ &nbsp;</a>good👍🏻","text":"$奈飞(NFLX)$ good👍🏻","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fc52ed66048b6e101a3596b624454da7","width":"1440","height":"2932"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955855520","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3558,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9939904146,"gmtCreate":1662037562188,"gmtModify":1676536681716,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581989768565324","idStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$标普500(.SPX)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939904146","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3067,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9033066245,"gmtCreate":1646158170036,"gmtModify":1676534096783,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581989768565324","idStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"💰💰","listText":"💰💰","text":"💰💰","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9033066245","repostId":"2108576110","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2108576110","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1646139606,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2108576110?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-01 21:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"How to get rid of the strange circle of \"small profit and big loss\"? Position management is key","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2108576110","media":"金十数据","summary":"很多交易者进入市场总会经历“小赚大亏”的阶段，资金曲线在这个阶段的表现也是小涨急跌，更有甚者会是一路下跌，没有任何反弹的迹象。那这样一个让人沮丧的阶段该如何度过呢？怎么打破在“小赚大亏”中资金被消磨殆","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Many traders will always experience the stage of \"small profits and big losses\" when they enter the market. The performance of the capital curve at this stage is also slightly rising and falling sharply, and even more, it will fall all the way without any sign of rebound. So how do you get through such a frustrating phase? How to break the strange phenomenon that funds are exhausted in \"small profits and big losses\"? Maybe it can give you some insight from the perspective of position management. Position management is usually called \"fund management\" in general. Although this reference is not rigorous, it can be used generally in the trading circle in many cases. So what is position management? Just as the name suggests is to manage the position in your hand. The maximum number of positions that your account funds can support is your full position, and the ratio of the number of positions you actually hold to the number of full positions is the so-called position ratio. In Baidu Encyclopedia, the definition of this is: in the risk market, the risk is controlled by limiting the proportion of single investment.</p><p>Through the above expression, everyone should have a more accurate understanding of \"position management\". Let's start from<b>The Necessity of Position Management, How to Manage Position, and the Mentality in Position Management</b>Three aspects to explain how to solve the problem of \"small profit and big loss\" from this level.</p><p>Importance and Necessity of Position Management</p><p>The premise of studying position management must be that the trading methods are consistent, and one or several combinations of fixed forms are used to participate in the market, otherwise position management will lose its significance, which needs to be said before. The reason is simple, just like you are playing poker, the criteria for each fold and raise should be consistent, otherwise who can say for sure if you will only raise a small bet when you win and place a heavy bet when you lose.</p><p>No one can accurately predict what kind of state the market will be at some point in the future, and what kind of price it will be. Even if someone does it in the short term, it must be confused. Don't trust anyone who claims to be able to predict the market when fighting in the market. In this way, the uncertainty of the market is obvious in front of us. Since the market can never predict, is there any reason for you to use all your funds for positions?</p><p>At this point, you may say, how can you make enough profit without holding heavily? One thing you need to note is that risk and profit coexist. You amplify the possibility of chasing profit, and at the same time untie the ropes that bind risk. Especially in the novice stage, unrestrained investment in the absence of a way to guarantee the winning rate is undoubtedly one of the fastest ways to explode.</p><p>Position management is a preventive measure about risks, not a means for you to chase profits, just like the quote from Baidu Encyclopedia at the beginning of the article. Many successful predecessors often tell us that we can only make heavy positions in fairly certain circumstances, and even this is based on the premise of making stop loss preparations in advance. After all, survival is the important support for making profits in the market.</p><p>It can be seen that position management is essential in the market game. You can never go wrong with investing in smaller positions before you can't interpret market signals well and establish a sound trading system. Although it can't let you get rid of the \"small profit\" for the time being, the position management with stop loss can at least help you intercept the \"big loss\", which is a landmark victory in the whole process of trading: your funds finally stop flowing out a lot.</p><p>Second, how to manage positions?</p><p>If these mentioned above are the so-called \"worldview\", then let's discuss the \"methodology\" of position management in this part. First of all, there is one thing that everyone needs to understand: position control can't solve the problem of low winning rate. It just makes traders die slowly, so that they have enough time and opportunity to get their own wave of market prices. It can be seen that position management cannot be discussed separately, but should be combined with the time period, psychological endurance and the basis of entry and exit of each person's trading.</p><p>For example, trend traders usually don't win too much, but the profit-loss ratio is quite large. This requires strict control of positions to reduce the cost of trial orders when conducting trend trading. Once the trial orders are successful and profitable, they should constantly increase their positions to improve their profit-loss ratio to make up for the disadvantages of low winning rate. Short-term traders rely on high winning rate and low profit-loss ratio to achieve profits, so they need to improve their capital utilization rate to maximize their profits. Of course, the stop loss of short-term traders is very strict, which reduces the risk caused by heavy positions at another level.</p><p>The purpose of position management is to cut off losses and let profits run. In order to achieve this purpose, some principles need to be followed:</p><p>1. Never put all your money in the market. Especially in the novice stage or in a state of \"small profit and big loss\" for a long time, putting all the funds into the market will not only enlarge the losses, but also affect the mentality of traders to a certain extent. Of course, short-term traders can try to attack heavily when the stop loss is firm and the profit-loss ratio is reasonable, but it is necessary to ensure that the entry of the same standard is to open the same position, otherwise it is very likely to appear<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06838\">When profitable</a>Light warehouse, the embarrassing situation of heavy warehouse when losing money.</p><p>2. It is normal for accidental continuous losses in transactions. Position management must ensure that after continuous losses, the remaining funds can open positions with the same number of lots. If this principle cannot be followed, it is very likely that 100 lots could have been opened, but only 90 lots could have been opened after several consecutive losses. It will be more difficult for 90 lots to return the funds to the original level than 100 lots.</p><p>3. There should be a scientific strategy of adding and reducing positions. Although trading is a game of probability from a mathematical point of view, it is by no means a static model. The constantly changing market is likely to have a market trend that lets us add or lighten positions after we enter the market once. At this time, your winning rate and profit-loss ratio are also changing, which requires your position management, including adding or lightening positions.</p><p>Is there a general rule for specific position management that is accurate to numbers? For example, what percentage of positions must be opened, and under what circumstances, what percentage of positions should be added or lightened? Unfortunately, no! As I have said at the beginning of this part, position management should be designed in combination with personal entry and exit basis and psychological endurance. Here we can only provide you with an idea. Everyone needs to complete the position management strategy according to their own relevant data.</p><p>What data or reference items do you need to set your own position management strategy? I've made the following statistics here for your reference:</p><p>1. Your own risk appetite. You have to determine whether you are radical or conservative. What is the acceptable loss you can accept every time? These losses correspond to the number of stop loss points in your trading system. The acceptable loss is the amount of loss you can bear at one point compared with the upper stop loss point. These amounts are the number of lots you open in a single entry compared with the fluctuating price of each point in a single hand.</p><p>2. The winning rate of trading techniques. Your position management must be determined in combination with the winning rate that trading techniques can provide, so as to ensure that your funds can survive the loss part under the normal proportion of profit and loss times.</p><p>3. The risk-reward ratio of the transaction is the so-called profit-loss ratio. Winning rate and profit-loss ratio are a pair of twins, which I have mentioned in many previous articles. With the cooperation of winning rate and profit-loss ratio, your position management must be able to resist the \"worst period\" in trading, otherwise you will die tragically in the dark night before dawn before you reach the dawn in your own trading system.</p><p>In conclusion, position management is not an independent static part, it is an integral part of the whole trading system. We have only discussed position management and all aspects related to it above, but it is not that the trading system is just that. The entry and exit strategy and position management in the trading system complement each other, and both are indispensable.</p><p>3. Mentality Problems in Position Management</p><p>The first two parts tell you the \"worldview\" and \"methodology\" of position management respectively, and the next is the problem of consciousness. Before the problems in the above two parts are solved, the mentality must not be able to cope well. If your position management has been inspired by the above sections or has solved previous problems, then the problem of mentality is relatively easier.</p><p>There are only two kinds of mentalities that often appear in position management: when making money, it would be nice if I could have worked with a full warehouse; When losing money, if only I could have tried it lightly. Of course, there will also be such things as do you want to add positions? Add a position and take a gamble! Or do you want to lighten your position? Forget it, let's quickly lighten your position and run away, but the latter is a derivative of the former.</p><p>When managing positions, the best state is to carry out them completely according to the designed management mode, without any subjective factors. This is easy to say, but it is not that easy to do, so what to do?</p><p>There is no shortcut, that is, make the management strategy of the position and other parts of the matching trading system as detailed as possible, and don't give yourself any room for subjective reverie.</p><p>Note that this is not to let you make the trading system complicated, but to tell everyone to make the trading system as simple as possible fixed and careful as possible. For example, if a certain operation is based on an interval, then turn this interval into a certain value, or try to compress the range of the interval to find the certainty in the system. Only in this way can you firmly lock your heart with rules.</p><p>However, rules still rely on discipline to complete the enforcement, so we must abide by the discipline that has been established, even if we use the self-reward and punishment mechanism.</p><p>The position management is coming to an end here. I hope you can get some ideas about position management from it, which will certainly be beneficial to everyone's trading road. Finally, I hope everyone trades smoothly and takes all rises and falls.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to get rid of the strange circle of \"small profit and big loss\"? Position management is key</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to get rid of the strange circle of \"small profit and big loss\"? Position management is key\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-01 21:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Many traders will always experience the stage of \"small profits and big losses\" when they enter the market. The performance of the capital curve at this stage is also slightly rising and falling sharply, and even more, it will fall all the way without any sign of rebound. So how do you get through such a frustrating phase? How to break the strange phenomenon that funds are exhausted in \"small profits and big losses\"? Maybe it can give you some insight from the perspective of position management. Position management is usually called \"fund management\" in general. Although this reference is not rigorous, it can be used generally in the trading circle in many cases. So what is position management? Just as the name suggests is to manage the position in your hand. The maximum number of positions that your account funds can support is your full position, and the ratio of the number of positions you actually hold to the number of full positions is the so-called position ratio. In Baidu Encyclopedia, the definition of this is: in the risk market, the risk is controlled by limiting the proportion of single investment.</p><p>Through the above expression, everyone should have a more accurate understanding of \"position management\". Let's start from<b>The Necessity of Position Management, How to Manage Position, and the Mentality in Position Management</b>Three aspects to explain how to solve the problem of \"small profit and big loss\" from this level.</p><p>Importance and Necessity of Position Management</p><p>The premise of studying position management must be that the trading methods are consistent, and one or several combinations of fixed forms are used to participate in the market, otherwise position management will lose its significance, which needs to be said before. The reason is simple, just like you are playing poker, the criteria for each fold and raise should be consistent, otherwise who can say for sure if you will only raise a small bet when you win and place a heavy bet when you lose.</p><p>No one can accurately predict what kind of state the market will be at some point in the future, and what kind of price it will be. Even if someone does it in the short term, it must be confused. Don't trust anyone who claims to be able to predict the market when fighting in the market. In this way, the uncertainty of the market is obvious in front of us. Since the market can never predict, is there any reason for you to use all your funds for positions?</p><p>At this point, you may say, how can you make enough profit without holding heavily? One thing you need to note is that risk and profit coexist. You amplify the possibility of chasing profit, and at the same time untie the ropes that bind risk. Especially in the novice stage, unrestrained investment in the absence of a way to guarantee the winning rate is undoubtedly one of the fastest ways to explode.</p><p>Position management is a preventive measure about risks, not a means for you to chase profits, just like the quote from Baidu Encyclopedia at the beginning of the article. Many successful predecessors often tell us that we can only make heavy positions in fairly certain circumstances, and even this is based on the premise of making stop loss preparations in advance. After all, survival is the important support for making profits in the market.</p><p>It can be seen that position management is essential in the market game. You can never go wrong with investing in smaller positions before you can't interpret market signals well and establish a sound trading system. Although it can't let you get rid of the \"small profit\" for the time being, the position management with stop loss can at least help you intercept the \"big loss\", which is a landmark victory in the whole process of trading: your funds finally stop flowing out a lot.</p><p>Second, how to manage positions?</p><p>If these mentioned above are the so-called \"worldview\", then let's discuss the \"methodology\" of position management in this part. First of all, there is one thing that everyone needs to understand: position control can't solve the problem of low winning rate. It just makes traders die slowly, so that they have enough time and opportunity to get their own wave of market prices. It can be seen that position management cannot be discussed separately, but should be combined with the time period, psychological endurance and the basis of entry and exit of each person's trading.</p><p>For example, trend traders usually don't win too much, but the profit-loss ratio is quite large. This requires strict control of positions to reduce the cost of trial orders when conducting trend trading. Once the trial orders are successful and profitable, they should constantly increase their positions to improve their profit-loss ratio to make up for the disadvantages of low winning rate. Short-term traders rely on high winning rate and low profit-loss ratio to achieve profits, so they need to improve their capital utilization rate to maximize their profits. Of course, the stop loss of short-term traders is very strict, which reduces the risk caused by heavy positions at another level.</p><p>The purpose of position management is to cut off losses and let profits run. In order to achieve this purpose, some principles need to be followed:</p><p>1. Never put all your money in the market. Especially in the novice stage or in a state of \"small profit and big loss\" for a long time, putting all the funds into the market will not only enlarge the losses, but also affect the mentality of traders to a certain extent. Of course, short-term traders can try to attack heavily when the stop loss is firm and the profit-loss ratio is reasonable, but it is necessary to ensure that the entry of the same standard is to open the same position, otherwise it is very likely to appear<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06838\">When profitable</a>Light warehouse, the embarrassing situation of heavy warehouse when losing money.</p><p>2. It is normal for accidental continuous losses in transactions. Position management must ensure that after continuous losses, the remaining funds can open positions with the same number of lots. If this principle cannot be followed, it is very likely that 100 lots could have been opened, but only 90 lots could have been opened after several consecutive losses. It will be more difficult for 90 lots to return the funds to the original level than 100 lots.</p><p>3. There should be a scientific strategy of adding and reducing positions. Although trading is a game of probability from a mathematical point of view, it is by no means a static model. The constantly changing market is likely to have a market trend that lets us add or lighten positions after we enter the market once. At this time, your winning rate and profit-loss ratio are also changing, which requires your position management, including adding or lightening positions.</p><p>Is there a general rule for specific position management that is accurate to numbers? For example, what percentage of positions must be opened, and under what circumstances, what percentage of positions should be added or lightened? Unfortunately, no! As I have said at the beginning of this part, position management should be designed in combination with personal entry and exit basis and psychological endurance. Here we can only provide you with an idea. Everyone needs to complete the position management strategy according to their own relevant data.</p><p>What data or reference items do you need to set your own position management strategy? I've made the following statistics here for your reference:</p><p>1. Your own risk appetite. You have to determine whether you are radical or conservative. What is the acceptable loss you can accept every time? These losses correspond to the number of stop loss points in your trading system. The acceptable loss is the amount of loss you can bear at one point compared with the upper stop loss point. These amounts are the number of lots you open in a single entry compared with the fluctuating price of each point in a single hand.</p><p>2. The winning rate of trading techniques. Your position management must be determined in combination with the winning rate that trading techniques can provide, so as to ensure that your funds can survive the loss part under the normal proportion of profit and loss times.</p><p>3. The risk-reward ratio of the transaction is the so-called profit-loss ratio. Winning rate and profit-loss ratio are a pair of twins, which I have mentioned in many previous articles. With the cooperation of winning rate and profit-loss ratio, your position management must be able to resist the \"worst period\" in trading, otherwise you will die tragically in the dark night before dawn before you reach the dawn in your own trading system.</p><p>In conclusion, position management is not an independent static part, it is an integral part of the whole trading system. We have only discussed position management and all aspects related to it above, but it is not that the trading system is just that. The entry and exit strategy and position management in the trading system complement each other, and both are indispensable.</p><p>3. Mentality Problems in Position Management</p><p>The first two parts tell you the \"worldview\" and \"methodology\" of position management respectively, and the next is the problem of consciousness. Before the problems in the above two parts are solved, the mentality must not be able to cope well. If your position management has been inspired by the above sections or has solved previous problems, then the problem of mentality is relatively easier.</p><p>There are only two kinds of mentalities that often appear in position management: when making money, it would be nice if I could have worked with a full warehouse; When losing money, if only I could have tried it lightly. Of course, there will also be such things as do you want to add positions? Add a position and take a gamble! Or do you want to lighten your position? Forget it, let's quickly lighten your position and run away, but the latter is a derivative of the former.</p><p>When managing positions, the best state is to carry out them completely according to the designed management mode, without any subjective factors. This is easy to say, but it is not that easy to do, so what to do?</p><p>There is no shortcut, that is, make the management strategy of the position and other parts of the matching trading system as detailed as possible, and don't give yourself any room for subjective reverie.</p><p>Note that this is not to let you make the trading system complicated, but to tell everyone to make the trading system as simple as possible fixed and careful as possible. For example, if a certain operation is based on an interval, then turn this interval into a certain value, or try to compress the range of the interval to find the certainty in the system. Only in this way can you firmly lock your heart with rules.</p><p>However, rules still rely on discipline to complete the enforcement, so we must abide by the discipline that has been established, even if we use the self-reward and punishment mechanism.</p><p>The position management is coming to an end here. I hope you can get some ideas about position management from it, which will certainly be beneficial to everyone's trading road. Finally, I hope everyone trades smoothly and takes all rises and falls.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=70226&type=news\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b72c7a49848a200043090f96ed32f108","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=70226&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2108576110","content_text":"很多交易者进入市场总会经历“小赚大亏”的阶段，资金曲线在这个阶段的表现也是小涨急跌，更有甚者会是一路下跌，没有任何反弹的迹象。那这样一个让人沮丧的阶段该如何度过呢？怎么打破在“小赚大亏”中资金被消磨殆尽的怪象？也许从仓位管理的角度可以给你一些启示。仓位管理通常也会被笼统的称之为“资金管理”，虽然这样的代指并不严谨，但在交易圈内很多时候是可以通用的。那什么才是仓位管理呢？顾名思义就是管理你手中的头寸。你的账户资金可以支撑的最大头寸数就是你的满仓状态，你实际持有的头寸数和满仓数的比例就是所谓的仓位占比。在百度百科里对于此的定义是：风险市场中，通过限制单次投入资金的比例来控制风险。通过上面的表述，大家对“仓位管理”应该有一个较为准确的认知了，下面我们就从仓位管理的必要性、仓位如何管理、仓位管理中的心态问题三个方面来阐述应该如何从这一层面解决“小赚大亏”的问题。一、仓位管理的重要性与必要性研究仓位管理的前提一定是交易手法具有一致性，固定的使用一种或几种组合的形式参与市场，否则仓位管理就会失去其意义，这一点是需要说在前面的。其中的道理很简单，就像你在打扑克一样，每次弃牌和加注的标准应该一致，不然谁能说得准你会不会在赢得时候只加了很小的注，而在输的时候却下的是重注。没有人可以准确的预测到市场在未来某个时刻会是怎样的一种状态，表现为怎么的一个价格。即使有人在短期内做到了，那也肯定是蒙的，在市场中搏杀不要相信任何一个号称自己可以预测行情的人。如此一来，市场的不确定性就显而易见的摆在我们面前，既然市场永远无法预测，那你还有理由把全部的资金用于头寸持有吗？此时，你可能会说，不重仓持有怎么能博取足够的利润？有一点你需要注意，风险和利润是并存的，你放大了追逐利润的可能，与此同时也解开了束缚风险的绳索。尤其在新手阶段，没有办法保证胜率的情况下不加节制的投入资金无疑是爆仓最快的途径之一。仓位管理是一个关于风险的防范措施，并不是你追逐利润的手段，这正像文章开头引用百度百科的那句话。很多成功的前辈也经常会告诉我们，只有在相当确定的情况下才能重仓，即使这样也是建立在提前做好止损准备的前提下。毕竟生存下来才是在市场中获利的重要支撑。由此可以看出仓位管理在市场博弈中是必不可少的。在无法很好的解读市场信号，建立完善的交易系统之前投入较小的仓位尝试是永远不会错的。它虽然暂时无法让你摆脱“小赚”，但配合止损的仓位管理起码可以帮你截住“大亏”，这在交易的整个过程里都是一种标志性的胜利：你的资金终于不再大把的流出。二、仓位如何管理？前边说的这些如果是所谓的“世界观”，那这一部分我们来探讨一下仓位管理的“方法论”。首先有一点需要大家明白：仓位控制并不能解决胜率低的问题，它只是让交易者死的慢点，以便有足够的时间和机会去获取属于自己的那一波行情。由此可见，仓位管理不能单独来讨论，而是应该结合每个人交易的时间周期、心理承受能力和进出场依据。比如趋势交易者通常胜率不会太高，但盈亏比却是相当的大。这就要求在进行趋势交易时要严格的控制仓位来降低试单成本，一旦试单成功出现盈利就要不断加仓来提升自己的盈亏比以弥补胜率低的弊端。而短线交易者是依靠高胜率配合低盈亏比来实现盈利的，所以他需要提高自己的资金利用率来保证盈利的尽量最大化，当然短线交易者的止损都是非常严格的，这就在另一个层面降低了重仓所带来的风险。仓位管理的目的是斩断亏损，让利润奔跑，为了实现这一目的需要遵循一些原则：1、永远都不要把你的全部资金投入市场。尤其在新手阶段或者长期处于“小赚大亏”的状态中时，把全部资金投入市场不仅会让亏损放大，也会在一定程度上影响交易者的心态。当然，短线交易者在止损坚决并且盈亏比合理的情况下可以尝试重仓出击，但务必保证同一标准的进场是开立相同的仓位，不然很有可能出现盈利时轻仓，亏损时重仓的尴尬局面。2、在交易中出现偶然性的连续亏损是正常的，仓位管理必须保证在连续亏损后，剩余资金还可以开立相同手数的头寸。如果这一原则无法遵循，那就很有可能出现原本可以开100手单，连续几次亏损后就只能开立90手单了，90手的单量想要将资金打回原来的水平会比100手单更加艰难。3、要有科学的加减仓策略。交易虽然在数学的角度来看是一个概率的游戏，但它绝不是一个静态的模型。时刻变化着的市场在我们一次入场后很可能会出现让我们加仓或者减仓的行情走势，这个时候你的胜率和盈亏比也在发生着变化，这就需要你的仓位管理包括加减仓的内容在其中。那具体仓位管理有没有精确到数字上的通用法则呢？比如一定按照百分之多少的比例开仓，怎样的情况下按照几成的比例加仓或者减仓？很可惜，没有！在这一部分的开始就已经说过了，仓位管理是要结合个人的进出仓依据、心理承受能力来设计的，这里只能为你提供一种思路，大家需要根据自己的相关数据来进行完成仓位的管理策略。那设定属于自己的仓位管理策略需要依据哪些数据或者参考项呢？我在这里做了如下统计，供诸位参考：1、自己的风险偏好。你要确定你是激进型的还是保守型的，你每次可以接受的亏损是多少，这些亏损对应你交易系统中的止损点数又是多少，可以接受的亏损额比上止损点数就是你一个点可以承受的亏损数额，这些数额比上单手每点波动价格就是你单次入场开仓的手数了。2、交易手法的胜率。你的仓位管理一定要结合交易手法所能提供的胜率来确定，这样才能保证正常比例的盈亏次数下你的资金可以挺过亏损的部分。3、交易的风险报酬比，也就是所谓的盈亏比。胜率和盈亏比是一对双生子，这个在之前很多文章里我都有提到过。在胜率和盈亏比的配合下，你的仓位管理一定要是能抗得过交易中“最坏的时期”，不然你还没有走到自己交易系统中的黎明就已经惨死在黎明前的黑夜里了。总之，仓位管理不是独立静态的部分，它是整个交易系统的组成部分。上面我们只讨论了仓位管理以及与之相关的各方面因素，但并不是说交易系统就仅仅如此。交易系统中的进出仓策略和仓位管理相辅相成，二者缺一不可。三、仓位管理中的心态问题前面两个部分分别告诉了大家仓位管理的“世界观”和“方法论”，接下来就是意识层面的问题了。在上面两个部分的问题没有解决好之前心态方面也必定是不能很好应对的。如果你的仓位管理已经从上述部分中有所启发，或是已经解决了之前的问题，那心态的问题就相对容易一些了。在仓位管理中经常出现的心态无非就两种：赚钱时，要是我当初能满仓干就好了；亏钱时，要是我当初能轻仓试一试就好了。当然，也会有诸如要不要加仓？加仓赌一把吧！或者要不要减仓？算了，还是赶紧减仓跑路吧等心理状态，不过后者是前者的衍生品了。在进行仓位管理时，最好的状态是自己完全按照已经设计好的管理模式去执行，没有任何的主观因素。这一点说起来容易，但实际做起来并没有那么简单，那该怎么办呢？没有什么捷径，就是把仓位的管理策略和与之相匹配的交易系统中其他部分做的尽量详细，不给自己任何主观遐想的空间。注意，这不是让你把交易系统做的错综复杂，而是告诉大家把尽量简单的交易系统做的尽量固定和仔细。比如某一项操作依据是一个区间性的，那就把这个区间变成确定的数值，亦或是尽量压缩区间的范围来寻找系统中的确定性，只有这样才能用规则把自己的心牢牢锁住。不过，规则还是要靠纪律来完成执行的，所以，一定要遵守已经制定好的纪律，哪怕使用自我的奖惩机制。关于仓位管理说到这里也即将结束了，希望大家从中可以收获一些关于仓位管理的思路，这对于大家的交易之路必将是有所裨益的。最后希望大家交易顺利，涨跌通吃。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097412137,"gmtCreate":1645529000257,"gmtModify":1676534036128,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581989768565324","idStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻👍🏻","text":"👍🏻👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097412137","repostId":"1187542871","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187542871","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1645511042,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187542871?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-22 14:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Investment Philosophy Behind \"Wall Street Must-Read Classics\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187542871","media":"期乐会","summary":"导读：霍华德·马克斯毕业于沃顿商学院，1995年与人联合创建的美国橡树资本管理公司（Oaktree Capital），如今管理资产规模达1000亿美元。霍华德·马克斯自上世纪90年代开始针对投资人撰写","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Introduction:</b>Howard Marks graduated from the Wharton School and co-founded the U.S.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">Oaktree Capital</a>Management Company (Oaktree Capital), which today has $100 billion in assets under management. Howard Marks has been writing \"investment memoranda\" for investors since 1990s. In his investment memoranda in January 2000, he predicted the bursting of the technology stock bubble, and then rose to fame. \"Investment memoranda\" became a must-read document on Wall Street.</p><p>\"The first email I opened and read was Howard Marks' memo. I always learned something from it. His books were even more so,\" Warren Buffett said.</p><p>Buffett rarely recommends investment books, but he strongly recommends Howard Marks' book \"The Most Important Thing in Investing,\" and says he read it twice.</p><p>This article is an excellent talk by Howard Marks in Shanghai, sharing how the investment philosophy behind \"The Most Important Thing in Investing\" came about and where these impacts came from.</p><p>I'm glad everyone came here to listen to me about the book I wrote, my investment philosophy, and how we manage money.</p><p>I want to take this opportunity to reiterate what I firmly believe they are necessary in investing. What I also want to talk to you today is how the investment philosophy behind this book came into being and where these impacts came from.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6751656f0d5e3443e7003f9db76070cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1. You must understand that the world is made of uncertainty</b></p><p>We need to realize that the world is a world of uncertainty, so that we can understand how to deal with it. If you think that the way to deal with the future is to predict exactly what will happen, think that you are correct and use that as a basis for action, you are asking for trouble. If something unexpected happens, you may end badly.</p><p>The humorous Mark Twain said, \"What gets you into trouble is not what you don't know, but what you think you know and are wrong.\" I think that believing too much in the future can be the source of danger.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5368906abff5d5a517cebc079de1257d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Too much uncertainty is the source of danger in our world</b></p><p>It is very dangerous to base investment on future predictions. My predictions don't have to be much better than others. After all, no one can make correct predictions of the future macro. Therefore, our investment portfolio must perform well in various macro situations to control risks. Only by knowing that we are ignorant can we accept the many possibilities of the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91729fd2cecd28f5691b58fdc8e203f2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. I understand that the development of the world is often controlled by random events</b></p><p>We can't say what the future will certainly be, which is made up of random events that can happen. Even if you know the distribution of random events, the relative probabilities of each event, you don't know when these events will occur. I think it's important.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41ed244801f3a7fe1dba77e482484bef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. Leave a safe space to cope with uncertainty</b></p><p>Arguably, in my career, I have been successful because I have studied what might happen in the future, but don't think it will happen, leaving room for uncertainty, leaving room for variables, and preparing myself for life in a world of uncertainty.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103c085e452fed0c456586740d8e21f7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>5. Risk is exactly what most people think will not happen</b></p><p>What is risk? A very good reading is: \"Risk Means More Things Can Happen Than Will Happen\" (Eloy Dimson, a professor at the London School of Economics, points out).</p><p>If a risk is in the current market and most investors think it will happen, then it is not a risk; If most investors think something won't happen in the future, then this is where the risk lies.</p><p>But the truth is that we never know if something is going to happen, and from that point of view, we must try to understand the future, to understand its possibilities, but never assume that we have fully figured it out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45346b201312ac992d91e9a589ccbf62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>6. No particularly bad record is better than good and bad</b></p><p>Simon Ramo wrote a book about tennis that had a big impact on me. Simon said there are two types of tennis matches, one is a winner's match; One is the loser's game.</p><p>The winner's game is played by pros like Federer, Djokovic, Nadal, Sampras. The winner of the tennis championship match is skilled and skilled, and there is no need to worry about the bounce of the tennis ball, the speed of the wind, the glare of the sun, the lack of skill, etc. They can fight as much as they want, literally as they like.</p><p>The winner's game belongs to the winner. The winner hits the ball, the opponent can't catch it. To win in a championship game, you have to hit the kind of very tricky ball that only a winner can hit.</p><p>As for us, we can't play like a winner. We won the game mainly by avoiding hitting the ball that the loser did.</p><p>Amateurs like me can't hit tricky balls, and even simple balls can't be caught sometimes. What we pursue is to hit the ball back, we just hit the ball back, we just hit the ball back, we just hit the ball back.</p><p>We knew that if we could fight back ten times, our opponent would probably only be able to do nine. Sooner or later, the opponent's ball will go out of bounds or fail to cross the net. We don't win by hitting good shots, we win by not hitting bad shots.</p><p>When I read this article and extended this concept to investing, I felt enlightened at the time. We live in an uncertain world where it is difficult to always make successful investments, and those who pursue great success often fail.</p><p>I came to the conclusion that for me, perhaps the best way for us to be successful in investing in the long run is to not make mistakes, not make wrong investments, and no bad years. As long as a good investment is accumulated one by one, as long as the performance is stable year after year, 20, 30, 40 and 50 years, it will be a successful investment career in the long run.</p><p>The point is that it is impossible to be right every time, it is difficult to know what the future will hold, it is difficult to make a good shot or make a beautiful investment and succeed overnight, but as long as we avoid failure, we are on the right path to success through investment. In the investment business, if you haven't had a bad performance in 20, 30, or 40 years, your record is top-notch.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a34eae22141b5d6d1664373b1999a30a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>7. Investment should not be based on macroeconomic forecasts</b></p><p>Macro forecasting refers to predicting how the economy, market and interest will change in the future, and studying the overall situation. These things, firstly, are difficult to study and understand, and secondly, it is difficult to study and understand better than others.</p><p>For people like me, to predict what will happen to the world economy, the U.S. economy or the Chinese economy or interest rates or China's A shares next year, what advantage do I have over others? It is difficult to understand these things better than others have studied. And we achieve better investment performance by understanding better than others' research.</p><p>Oaktree Capital does not base its investments on future macro forecasts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/568a4512af2303d8f1bb9e92e5786bfa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>8. How should you invest?</b></p><p>First, you have to consider what kind of investment results will come out of the future. When constructing a portfolio, the portfolio must be at least OK, that is, it is still viable in any possible scenario, and only under this condition should it be invested.</p><p>Second, try to control risks. The risk is not to get out of control in any scenario you can consider so that you don't encounter poor investment performance.</p><p>Third, we don't assume that we can understand macroeconomics, but we really should know more micro stuff. What is microscopic? It's the company, the industry and the securities. On these specific, smaller-picture task lists, if you can study them very hard and have the right techniques, you can understand these companies more deeply than others.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3608dc4cf2c20427504193a36c19d04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>9. The Holy Grail of Investment: Bargains</b></p><p>When I first joined Citibank in 1968, the company invested in the so-called \"Pretty Fifty,\" the 50 best and fastest-growing companies in the United States, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">HP</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca Cola</a>Merck,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">Lilly</a>。 The problem is that these companies are so expensive that if you bought them in 1968 and held them for five years, by 1973 you would have lost 80 to 90 percent, even though you bought the best companies in America.</p><p>In addition, some of these companies had high hopes and ended up falling, such as,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KODK\">Kodak</a>Polaroid. Few people take pictures with film nowadays, and few people use Polaroids because we can take countless pictures for free with our phones. These companies basically disappeared, but in 1968, people invested in these companies at very high prices, believing that they would always be so perfect, but never imagined that they would disappear. The point is, you can also lose a lot of money when you buy a very good company.</p><p>We can learn a truth from this: a good company is not the same thing as a good investment. You can lose a lot of money by buying a good company, and you can make a lot of money by buying a bad company. This tells us that it is certainly not the texture of the company that determines the investment income.</p><p>So, what determines investment returns? Is the price to buy. If the company is expensive, you may lose money. You may make money, or even safely, if companies with poor texture are cheap. This is very important to the formation of my investment philosophy.</p><p>I've learned that it's not what you buy that matters, it's how much you spend on it. The key is not to buy good things, but to buy well. This is very, very important.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60e6e337c5d9f04947275ad92b45483f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>10. The wise creates, the fools imitate</b></p><p>In investing, every trend goes to extremes at the end.</p><p>When A shares are 2000 points, the people who invest in A shares are doing the right thing. But then, the stock rose, and others were attracted, and others bought, the more they bought, the more they bought, the more excited they bought, and they bought with leverage. Those who bought at 5000 later suffered.</p><p>This tells us that if you act early in the trend, at the right timing and price, you can safely make good gains. If you act at the end of a trend, regardless of timing and price, you could be in big trouble.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efb5834bd7cc7e92def8f35ca4009408\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>11. Never forget that six-foot tall people can drown in a river that is five feet deep on average</b></p><p>When we make investment, we can't just pursue average survival, but must survive every day.</p><p>Therefore, we have to build a portfolio that can withstand the worst. Our investment management must be very professional, with a strong sense of risk and a strong sense of conservation, so that we can get through the difficult times.</p><p>Good days are easy to live. When good days are good, it is not difficult to survive. At this time, in fact, everyone is living well. What's hard is who gets through the tough times, those with too aggressive portfolios, those with too much leverage that can't survive the tough times, six-footers that drown, those are the people talking.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54ec5cdb9c594cf699a43411d32f2191\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>12. It is difficult to distinguish whether it is much earlier than others or whether it is wrong</b></p><p>As mentioned earlier, investing faces the future, and in the investment world, it is difficult to do the right thing, and it is impossible to always do the right thing at the right time. That said, even if we are doing the right thing, our timing may not be entirely right.</p><p>We may be too early, and if we are too late, we may be in trouble. So you should wish you were too early. But if you're too early, for a while, it looks like you're doing it wrong.</p><p>When A shares reached 4,000 points, some people said no, it was too dangerous, and they left the market. From 4000 to 5000, it looks like they're wrong and they feel wrong themselves, they probably regret leaving at 4000 and can only watch others make money all the way to 5000.</p><p>They feel like they're doing it wrong, but they're right, just too early. Our timing can never be accurate. You must have courage and conviction, and if you do what you do for good reason, the facts will eventually prove that your actions are rational.</p><p>I have to have courage myself. I buy something whose price is falling, I buy it because it is cheap, because it is falling, I like it, I buy it. It will continue to fall. I have to be confident that I am right. You can't sell it just because it continues to fall. So you have to keep in mind that it's hard to tell if you were a lot ahead of others or if you were doing it wrong until the facts finally prove you are right.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/091822289ba4245413c67ec3cfd391ef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What is the task of the asset manager?</b></p><p>First, control risks.</p><p>What are the tasks of an asset manager? Is making a lot of money? Beat the market? Is it outperforming Wall Street? We disagree with none of these. The first job of an asset management manager is to control risk. We at Oaktree Asset put risk control at the highest level.</p><p>We position ourselves as an alternative asset manager. We do not invest in mainstream stocks and mainstream bonds. We discover corporate bonds, convertible securities, non-performing bonds, controllable investments (energy, infrastructure), real estate, publicly listed stocks (undervalued), emerging markets, etc. that are less concerned about teaching. We have our own investment strategies for each category.</p><p>Second, stability.</p><p>Our investment performance is not going to be first this year and then last next year. We are generally in the middle, because of our outstanding risk control, we will stand out in tough times. We have achieved that goal over the past 30 years.</p><p>We get average returns. Average returns are OK in a bull market. Everyone makes money in a bull market, which is enough, but our customers want us to beat the average performance in a bear market.</p><p>A very simple summary is: we get average returns in bull markets, and excess returns in bear markets.</p><p>What would happen if we could achieve this goal year after year, for decades? Our performance will be less volatile than average. The overall higher-than-average return is because our outstanding performance in the bear market has allowed us to achieve this goal, which is indeed necessary so that our customers will feel happy.</p><p>I think this is the secret of our company's growth. After 20 years, we have reached a scale of 100 billion dollars, from 3.5 billion dollars in 2006 to 100 billion dollars today. We really started our asset management business in 2007, and 2008 was during the financial crisis. We accepted at least 10 billion dollars in 2007, because our performance will be better than average in the bear market. We can show this investment result to people, and everyone feels that Oaktree Capital is trustworthy and capable of delivering a sustained and stable investment result. And we grow!</p><p>Third, we are looking for the part of the market that is less effective.</p><p>We think it is very difficult for investors to gain an advantage to make money in the part of the market that people can understand; But for the parts of the market that people usually can't understand, you can do relatively better, like bonds, convertible bonds, personal mortgages, infrastructure implementation, real estate, emerging markets... These projects are relatively easier to gain investment advantages, but not so easy, just relatively easier than products in a fully effective market.</p><p>Fourth, we believe that macroeconomic forecasting is not the key to successful investment.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, I don't believe macro forecasts work. In my opinion, macro forecasting is not necessary for a successful investment. All the successful investors I know, even Buffett included, did not succeed because the macro forecasts were better than others. Their success depends on their knowledge of companies, industries and securities.</p><p>Finally, we don't speculate on the ups and downs of the market.</p><p>When managing funds, we don't put money in it just because we think the market is going to rise, and take it out just because we think the market is going to fall. It's too easy to guess the ups and downs like this. We just enter the market and then basically stay in the market. However, we will adjust the degree of aggression or conservation from the price of market assets and the psychology of surrounding investors.</p><p>Long-term investment success is not achieved through great investments, in the baseball metaphor, not by hitting home runs occasionally, long-term success for investors stems from building a safe portfolio with few failures and few bad years. If you can do this seemingly simple but difficult thing right, you can achieve very successful investment performance over several decades. That's our goal, and I think we've done it. That's what I want to share with you all.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee355aa3c1360abf8698134c634c090f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>14. Regarding asset allocation, Howard suggested</b></p><p>1. Just as eggs should not be put in the same basket, we don't know the future, so everyone should diversify their investments.</p><p>2. There is no \"Magic Number\" (specific investment allocation ratio). For investors, investment needs to be done step by step. When you feel good, do more and take it step by step. If you don't understand, too much investment will only make it worse. You can make mistakes, but you can't lose all your money.</p><p>3. At the same time, it is also discouraged to use a very small proportion (less than 5%) in the investment portfolio to invest in the aspects you are optimistic about, because too small an investment will play a small role in your portfolio no matter how it performs, and it is meaningless.</p><p>4. Don't invest in things you don't understand. If you don't understand it at all, don't do it.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1645511055786","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Investment Philosophy Behind \"Wall Street Must-Read Classics\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Investment Philosophy Behind \"Wall Street Must-Read Classics\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">期乐会</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-22 14:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Introduction:</b>Howard Marks graduated from the Wharton School and co-founded the U.S.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">Oaktree Capital</a>Management Company (Oaktree Capital), which today has $100 billion in assets under management. Howard Marks has been writing \"investment memoranda\" for investors since 1990s. In his investment memoranda in January 2000, he predicted the bursting of the technology stock bubble, and then rose to fame. \"Investment memoranda\" became a must-read document on Wall Street.</p><p>\"The first email I opened and read was Howard Marks' memo. I always learned something from it. His books were even more so,\" Warren Buffett said.</p><p>Buffett rarely recommends investment books, but he strongly recommends Howard Marks' book \"The Most Important Thing in Investing,\" and says he read it twice.</p><p>This article is an excellent talk by Howard Marks in Shanghai, sharing how the investment philosophy behind \"The Most Important Thing in Investing\" came about and where these impacts came from.</p><p>I'm glad everyone came here to listen to me about the book I wrote, my investment philosophy, and how we manage money.</p><p>I want to take this opportunity to reiterate what I firmly believe they are necessary in investing. What I also want to talk to you today is how the investment philosophy behind this book came into being and where these impacts came from.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6751656f0d5e3443e7003f9db76070cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1. You must understand that the world is made of uncertainty</b></p><p>We need to realize that the world is a world of uncertainty, so that we can understand how to deal with it. If you think that the way to deal with the future is to predict exactly what will happen, think that you are correct and use that as a basis for action, you are asking for trouble. If something unexpected happens, you may end badly.</p><p>The humorous Mark Twain said, \"What gets you into trouble is not what you don't know, but what you think you know and are wrong.\" I think that believing too much in the future can be the source of danger.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5368906abff5d5a517cebc079de1257d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Too much uncertainty is the source of danger in our world</b></p><p>It is very dangerous to base investment on future predictions. My predictions don't have to be much better than others. After all, no one can make correct predictions of the future macro. Therefore, our investment portfolio must perform well in various macro situations to control risks. Only by knowing that we are ignorant can we accept the many possibilities of the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91729fd2cecd28f5691b58fdc8e203f2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. I understand that the development of the world is often controlled by random events</b></p><p>We can't say what the future will certainly be, which is made up of random events that can happen. Even if you know the distribution of random events, the relative probabilities of each event, you don't know when these events will occur. I think it's important.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41ed244801f3a7fe1dba77e482484bef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. Leave a safe space to cope with uncertainty</b></p><p>Arguably, in my career, I have been successful because I have studied what might happen in the future, but don't think it will happen, leaving room for uncertainty, leaving room for variables, and preparing myself for life in a world of uncertainty.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103c085e452fed0c456586740d8e21f7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>5. Risk is exactly what most people think will not happen</b></p><p>What is risk? A very good reading is: \"Risk Means More Things Can Happen Than Will Happen\" (Eloy Dimson, a professor at the London School of Economics, points out).</p><p>If a risk is in the current market and most investors think it will happen, then it is not a risk; If most investors think something won't happen in the future, then this is where the risk lies.</p><p>But the truth is that we never know if something is going to happen, and from that point of view, we must try to understand the future, to understand its possibilities, but never assume that we have fully figured it out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45346b201312ac992d91e9a589ccbf62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>6. No particularly bad record is better than good and bad</b></p><p>Simon Ramo wrote a book about tennis that had a big impact on me. Simon said there are two types of tennis matches, one is a winner's match; One is the loser's game.</p><p>The winner's game is played by pros like Federer, Djokovic, Nadal, Sampras. The winner of the tennis championship match is skilled and skilled, and there is no need to worry about the bounce of the tennis ball, the speed of the wind, the glare of the sun, the lack of skill, etc. They can fight as much as they want, literally as they like.</p><p>The winner's game belongs to the winner. The winner hits the ball, the opponent can't catch it. To win in a championship game, you have to hit the kind of very tricky ball that only a winner can hit.</p><p>As for us, we can't play like a winner. We won the game mainly by avoiding hitting the ball that the loser did.</p><p>Amateurs like me can't hit tricky balls, and even simple balls can't be caught sometimes. What we pursue is to hit the ball back, we just hit the ball back, we just hit the ball back, we just hit the ball back.</p><p>We knew that if we could fight back ten times, our opponent would probably only be able to do nine. Sooner or later, the opponent's ball will go out of bounds or fail to cross the net. We don't win by hitting good shots, we win by not hitting bad shots.</p><p>When I read this article and extended this concept to investing, I felt enlightened at the time. We live in an uncertain world where it is difficult to always make successful investments, and those who pursue great success often fail.</p><p>I came to the conclusion that for me, perhaps the best way for us to be successful in investing in the long run is to not make mistakes, not make wrong investments, and no bad years. As long as a good investment is accumulated one by one, as long as the performance is stable year after year, 20, 30, 40 and 50 years, it will be a successful investment career in the long run.</p><p>The point is that it is impossible to be right every time, it is difficult to know what the future will hold, it is difficult to make a good shot or make a beautiful investment and succeed overnight, but as long as we avoid failure, we are on the right path to success through investment. In the investment business, if you haven't had a bad performance in 20, 30, or 40 years, your record is top-notch.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a34eae22141b5d6d1664373b1999a30a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>7. Investment should not be based on macroeconomic forecasts</b></p><p>Macro forecasting refers to predicting how the economy, market and interest will change in the future, and studying the overall situation. These things, firstly, are difficult to study and understand, and secondly, it is difficult to study and understand better than others.</p><p>For people like me, to predict what will happen to the world economy, the U.S. economy or the Chinese economy or interest rates or China's A shares next year, what advantage do I have over others? It is difficult to understand these things better than others have studied. And we achieve better investment performance by understanding better than others' research.</p><p>Oaktree Capital does not base its investments on future macro forecasts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/568a4512af2303d8f1bb9e92e5786bfa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>8. How should you invest?</b></p><p>First, you have to consider what kind of investment results will come out of the future. When constructing a portfolio, the portfolio must be at least OK, that is, it is still viable in any possible scenario, and only under this condition should it be invested.</p><p>Second, try to control risks. The risk is not to get out of control in any scenario you can consider so that you don't encounter poor investment performance.</p><p>Third, we don't assume that we can understand macroeconomics, but we really should know more micro stuff. What is microscopic? It's the company, the industry and the securities. On these specific, smaller-picture task lists, if you can study them very hard and have the right techniques, you can understand these companies more deeply than others.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3608dc4cf2c20427504193a36c19d04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>9. The Holy Grail of Investment: Bargains</b></p><p>When I first joined Citibank in 1968, the company invested in the so-called \"Pretty Fifty,\" the 50 best and fastest-growing companies in the United States, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">HP</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca Cola</a>Merck,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">Lilly</a>。 The problem is that these companies are so expensive that if you bought them in 1968 and held them for five years, by 1973 you would have lost 80 to 90 percent, even though you bought the best companies in America.</p><p>In addition, some of these companies had high hopes and ended up falling, such as,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KODK\">Kodak</a>Polaroid. Few people take pictures with film nowadays, and few people use Polaroids because we can take countless pictures for free with our phones. These companies basically disappeared, but in 1968, people invested in these companies at very high prices, believing that they would always be so perfect, but never imagined that they would disappear. The point is, you can also lose a lot of money when you buy a very good company.</p><p>We can learn a truth from this: a good company is not the same thing as a good investment. You can lose a lot of money by buying a good company, and you can make a lot of money by buying a bad company. This tells us that it is certainly not the texture of the company that determines the investment income.</p><p>So, what determines investment returns? Is the price to buy. If the company is expensive, you may lose money. You may make money, or even safely, if companies with poor texture are cheap. This is very important to the formation of my investment philosophy.</p><p>I've learned that it's not what you buy that matters, it's how much you spend on it. The key is not to buy good things, but to buy well. This is very, very important.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60e6e337c5d9f04947275ad92b45483f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>10. The wise creates, the fools imitate</b></p><p>In investing, every trend goes to extremes at the end.</p><p>When A shares are 2000 points, the people who invest in A shares are doing the right thing. But then, the stock rose, and others were attracted, and others bought, the more they bought, the more they bought, the more excited they bought, and they bought with leverage. Those who bought at 5000 later suffered.</p><p>This tells us that if you act early in the trend, at the right timing and price, you can safely make good gains. If you act at the end of a trend, regardless of timing and price, you could be in big trouble.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efb5834bd7cc7e92def8f35ca4009408\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>11. Never forget that six-foot tall people can drown in a river that is five feet deep on average</b></p><p>When we make investment, we can't just pursue average survival, but must survive every day.</p><p>Therefore, we have to build a portfolio that can withstand the worst. Our investment management must be very professional, with a strong sense of risk and a strong sense of conservation, so that we can get through the difficult times.</p><p>Good days are easy to live. When good days are good, it is not difficult to survive. At this time, in fact, everyone is living well. What's hard is who gets through the tough times, those with too aggressive portfolios, those with too much leverage that can't survive the tough times, six-footers that drown, those are the people talking.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54ec5cdb9c594cf699a43411d32f2191\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>12. It is difficult to distinguish whether it is much earlier than others or whether it is wrong</b></p><p>As mentioned earlier, investing faces the future, and in the investment world, it is difficult to do the right thing, and it is impossible to always do the right thing at the right time. That said, even if we are doing the right thing, our timing may not be entirely right.</p><p>We may be too early, and if we are too late, we may be in trouble. So you should wish you were too early. But if you're too early, for a while, it looks like you're doing it wrong.</p><p>When A shares reached 4,000 points, some people said no, it was too dangerous, and they left the market. From 4000 to 5000, it looks like they're wrong and they feel wrong themselves, they probably regret leaving at 4000 and can only watch others make money all the way to 5000.</p><p>They feel like they're doing it wrong, but they're right, just too early. Our timing can never be accurate. You must have courage and conviction, and if you do what you do for good reason, the facts will eventually prove that your actions are rational.</p><p>I have to have courage myself. I buy something whose price is falling, I buy it because it is cheap, because it is falling, I like it, I buy it. It will continue to fall. I have to be confident that I am right. You can't sell it just because it continues to fall. So you have to keep in mind that it's hard to tell if you were a lot ahead of others or if you were doing it wrong until the facts finally prove you are right.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/091822289ba4245413c67ec3cfd391ef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What is the task of the asset manager?</b></p><p>First, control risks.</p><p>What are the tasks of an asset manager? Is making a lot of money? Beat the market? Is it outperforming Wall Street? We disagree with none of these. The first job of an asset management manager is to control risk. We at Oaktree Asset put risk control at the highest level.</p><p>We position ourselves as an alternative asset manager. We do not invest in mainstream stocks and mainstream bonds. We discover corporate bonds, convertible securities, non-performing bonds, controllable investments (energy, infrastructure), real estate, publicly listed stocks (undervalued), emerging markets, etc. that are less concerned about teaching. We have our own investment strategies for each category.</p><p>Second, stability.</p><p>Our investment performance is not going to be first this year and then last next year. We are generally in the middle, because of our outstanding risk control, we will stand out in tough times. We have achieved that goal over the past 30 years.</p><p>We get average returns. Average returns are OK in a bull market. Everyone makes money in a bull market, which is enough, but our customers want us to beat the average performance in a bear market.</p><p>A very simple summary is: we get average returns in bull markets, and excess returns in bear markets.</p><p>What would happen if we could achieve this goal year after year, for decades? Our performance will be less volatile than average. The overall higher-than-average return is because our outstanding performance in the bear market has allowed us to achieve this goal, which is indeed necessary so that our customers will feel happy.</p><p>I think this is the secret of our company's growth. After 20 years, we have reached a scale of 100 billion dollars, from 3.5 billion dollars in 2006 to 100 billion dollars today. We really started our asset management business in 2007, and 2008 was during the financial crisis. We accepted at least 10 billion dollars in 2007, because our performance will be better than average in the bear market. We can show this investment result to people, and everyone feels that Oaktree Capital is trustworthy and capable of delivering a sustained and stable investment result. And we grow!</p><p>Third, we are looking for the part of the market that is less effective.</p><p>We think it is very difficult for investors to gain an advantage to make money in the part of the market that people can understand; But for the parts of the market that people usually can't understand, you can do relatively better, like bonds, convertible bonds, personal mortgages, infrastructure implementation, real estate, emerging markets... These projects are relatively easier to gain investment advantages, but not so easy, just relatively easier than products in a fully effective market.</p><p>Fourth, we believe that macroeconomic forecasting is not the key to successful investment.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, I don't believe macro forecasts work. In my opinion, macro forecasting is not necessary for a successful investment. All the successful investors I know, even Buffett included, did not succeed because the macro forecasts were better than others. Their success depends on their knowledge of companies, industries and securities.</p><p>Finally, we don't speculate on the ups and downs of the market.</p><p>When managing funds, we don't put money in it just because we think the market is going to rise, and take it out just because we think the market is going to fall. It's too easy to guess the ups and downs like this. We just enter the market and then basically stay in the market. However, we will adjust the degree of aggression or conservation from the price of market assets and the psychology of surrounding investors.</p><p>Long-term investment success is not achieved through great investments, in the baseball metaphor, not by hitting home runs occasionally, long-term success for investors stems from building a safe portfolio with few failures and few bad years. If you can do this seemingly simple but difficult thing right, you can achieve very successful investment performance over several decades. That's our goal, and I think we've done it. That's what I want to share with you all.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee355aa3c1360abf8698134c634c090f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>14. Regarding asset allocation, Howard suggested</b></p><p>1. Just as eggs should not be put in the same basket, we don't know the future, so everyone should diversify their investments.</p><p>2. There is no \"Magic Number\" (specific investment allocation ratio). For investors, investment needs to be done step by step. When you feel good, do more and take it step by step. If you don't understand, too much investment will only make it worse. You can make mistakes, but you can't lose all your money.</p><p>3. At the same time, it is also discouraged to use a very small proportion (less than 5%) in the investment portfolio to invest in the aspects you are optimistic about, because too small an investment will play a small role in your portfolio no matter how it performs, and it is meaningless.</p><p>4. Don't invest in things you don't understand. If you don't understand it at all, don't do it.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/b1RLIOWPqoqGRFbKd_MSnw\">期乐会</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb5398fed733ffbbc94ab1b9a49946a8","relate_stocks":{"BK4176":"多领域控股","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/b1RLIOWPqoqGRFbKd_MSnw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187542871","content_text":"导读：霍华德·马克斯毕业于沃顿商学院，1995年与人联合创建的美国橡树资本管理公司（Oaktree Capital），如今管理资产规模达1000亿美元。霍华德·马克斯自上世纪90年代开始针对投资人撰写“投资备忘录”，2000年1月份的投资备忘录中，他预言了科技股泡沫破裂，之后声名鹊起，“投资备忘录”成为华尔街的必读文件。“我第一时间打开并阅读的邮件就是霍华德·马克斯的备忘录。我总能从中学到东西。他的书籍更是如此”，沃伦·巴菲特说。巴菲特很少推荐投资书籍，他却大力推荐霍华德·马克斯的书《投资最重要的事》，而且说他读了两遍。本文是霍华德·马克斯在上海的一次精彩演讲，分享《投资最重要的事》背后的投资哲学是如何产生的，这些影响是从哪里来的。很高兴大家来这里听我讲我写的书，我的投资哲学，和我们如何管理金钱。我想借这个机会，重申一下哪些东西是我在投资中坚定地相信他们是必须的，我今天还想与大家谈论的是在这本书背后的投资哲学是如何产生的，这些影响是从哪里来的。1、你必须理解世界是由不确定性构成的我们要认识到，世界是一个充满不确定性的世界，这样才能了解如何应对这个世界。要是你觉得应对未来的方法是准确预测将来会发生什么，认为自己正确无误并把这作为行动依据，肯定是自找麻烦。要是意料之外的事情发生了，你的结局可能很糟糕。幽默的马克·吐温说过：“让你陷入麻烦的，不是你不知道的事，而是你自以为知道、其实错误的事。”我认为，太相信未来可能是危险的根源。2、太多的不确定性是我们这个世界危险的来源把投资建立在对未来的预测上是一件很危险的事，我的预测不必比其他人好到哪里，毕竟没有人对未来宏观能做出正确的预测。所以我们的投资组合一定要在各种宏观情况下都有不错的表现，以此控制风险。知道我们无知，才能接受未来的多种可能。3、我理解的世界的发展往往是由随机事件控制的我们不能说未来一定会怎样，未来是由可能发生的随机事件组成的。就算你知道随机事件的分布、各个事件的相对概率，你也不知道这些事件什么时候会发生。我觉得这很重要。4、留下安全空间应对不确定性可以说，在我的职业生涯中，我能取得成功，就是因为我研究将来可能发生什么、但是不认为一定会发生，给不确定性留有余地、给可变因素留有余地，为不确定性的世界中的生活做好准备。5、风险恰恰是大多数人认为不会发生的事什么是风险？一个非常好的解读是：“风险是指总有意料之外的事情发生”(Risk Means More Things Can Happen Than Will Happen)（伦敦经济学院教授埃洛伊·迪姆森指出的）。如果一个风险在当前市场上，大多数投资者都认为会发生，那么这就不是风险；如果大多数投资者都认为某件事未来不会发生，那么这件事就是风险之所在。但是真相是我们永远不知道某一件事情会不会发生，从这一点来看，我们又必须努力去认知未来，去了解其可能性，但是永远不要假设我们已经完全搞清楚了。6、没有特别糟糕的记录好过时好时坏西蒙·拉莫(Simon Ramo)写了一本关于网球的书，对我产生了很大影响。西蒙说有两种网球比赛，一种是赢家的比赛；一种是输家的比赛。赢家的比赛是费德勒、德约科维奇、纳达尔、桑普拉斯这样的职业选手打的。网球冠军赛中的赢家技巧娴熟，球技炉火纯青，根本不用担心网球的反弹、风速、阳光刺眼、技术不到家等情况。他们想怎么打就怎么打，简直随心所欲。赢家的比赛是属于赢家的。赢家打出去的球，对手接不住。要在冠军赛中获胜，必须打出赢家才能打出来的那种非常刁钻的球。至于我们，我们打不出来赢家那样的球。我们比赛获胜，主要是靠避免打出输家那样的球。像我这样的业余爱好者打不出刁钻的球，就连简单的球有时都接不住。我们追求的就是把球打回去，我们就是把球打回去，我们就是把球打回去，我们就是把球打回去。我们知道要是我们能打回去十次，对手可能只能做到九次。或早或晚，对手的球就会出界或者过不了网。我们不靠打出好球获胜，我们靠不打坏球获胜。当我读到这篇文章时，把这个概念引申到投资上，我当时就有醍醐灌顶的感觉。我们生活在不确定的世界，很难总是做出成功的投资，那些追求伟大成功的人往往却失败了。我得出了一个结论，对我来说，我们要在投资中长期取得成功，或许最好的方式是不犯错，不做错误的投资，没有糟糕的年份。只要一笔一笔积累良好的投资，只要一年又一年业绩稳健，二十年、三十年、四十年、五十年，长此以往就是成功的投资生涯。关键是不可能每次都对，很难知道将来会怎样，很难打出一记好球或做出一笔漂亮的投资，一蹴而就地成功，但是我们只要避免失败，就走上了通过投资成功的正路。在投资这行，要是你20年、30年、40年都没有出现过糟糕的业绩，你的记录就是一流的。7、投资不应该基于宏观经济预测宏观预测是指预测经济、市场、利息将来会如何变化，研究的是大局。这些东西，首先是很难研究明白，其次是很难比别人研究得更明白。像我这样的人，去预测明年世界经济、美国经济或中国经济或利率或中国 A 股会怎样，我和别人比有什么优势？这些东西，很难比别人研究的更明白。而我们取得更好的投资业绩，靠的就是比别人研究的更明白。橡树资本的投资不以未来的宏观预测为依据。8、你应该如何投资呢第一，你要考虑未来会出什么样的投资结果。构建一个投资组合时，这个投资组合至少要OK，即在其任何可能出现的场景下依然是可行的，在这个条件下才来投资。第二，努力控制风险。这个风险是要在你能够考虑到的任何场景下不至于失控，这样你才不至于遇到糟糕的投资业绩。第三，我们不会假设我们能够理解宏观经济，但是我们确实应该知道更多微观的东西。什么是微观呢？就是公司，行业还有证券。在这些具体，比较小的画面的任务清单上，如果你能非常努力的研究这些同时又有正确的技巧，你就可以做到比别人更深入理解这些公司。9、投资的圣杯：便宜货1968 年，我刚进花旗银行工作时，公司投资了所谓的“漂亮五十”，就是美国最优秀、成长最快的五十家公司，包括惠普、德州仪器、可口可乐、默克、礼来。问题是这些公司太贵了，要是你 1968 年买了这些公司，持有五年，到了 1973 年，你会亏损 80% 到 90%，虽然你买的是美国最好的公司。此外，在这些公司里，有的被寄予厚望，最后却陨落了，比如，柯达、宝丽来。现在用胶卷拍照的人很少了，也很少有人用拍立得相机，因为我们用手机可以免费拍无数的照片。这些公司基本就消失了，可当时在 1968 年，人们以非常高的价钱投资这些公司，相信它们永远都会那么完美，想不到它们会消失。关键是，你买很优秀的公司也可能亏大钱。我们从中可以学到一个道理：好公司和好投资不是一回事。买好公司能亏很多钱，而买差公司能赚很多钱。这告诉我们，决定投资收益的肯定不是公司的质地。那么，决定投资收益的是什么？是买入的价格。要是公司价格贵，你可能亏钱。如果质地较差的公司价格便宜，你可能赚钱，甚至是安全地赚钱。这一点对我的投资理念形成非常重要。我认识到，重要的不是买什么，而是花了多少钱买的。关键不是买好东西，而是要买得好。这非常非常重要。10、智者开创，愚人模仿在投资中，每个趋势到最后都会走向极端。当 A 股 2000 点时，投资 A 股的人做的是正确的事。但是后来，股票上涨，其他人也被吸引来了，其他人也买，越买越多，越买越兴奋，还用杠杆买。后来在 5000 点买入的人就遭殃了。这告诉我们，如果你在趋势早期行动，在正确的时机和价格行动，你就能安全地取得良好收益。如果你在趋势末期行动，不管时机和价格，你可能遇上大麻烦。11、永远不要忘记六英尺高的人，可能淹死在平均五尺深的小河里我们做投资，不能只追求平均活下来，必须每天都活下来。因此，我们构建的投资组合必须要能经受得起最恶劣的考验。我们对投资的管理必须要很专业、有很强的风险意识、有很强的保守意识，这样我们就能度过艰难的时光。好日子容易过，日子好的时候，活下来并不难，这时候其实大家过得都很好。难的是谁能度过艰难的时光，那些投资组合过于激进，那些杠杆过高的人挨不过艰难时刻，六英尺高的人却淹死了，说的就是这些人。12、是比别人早了很多，还是做错了，两者很难区分正如前面所说的，投资面对的是未来，在投资领域，做正确的事情很困难，始终在正确的时机做正确的事情是不可能的。也就是说，即使我们做的事情是对的，我们的时机可能不是完全正确。我们很可能太早了，要是太晚，可能就麻烦了。所以你应该希望自己太早了。但是如果你太早了，在一段时间里，看起来你是做错了。当 A 股达到 4000 点时，有些人说不行，太危险了，他们离场了。从 4000 点到 5000 点，看起来他们错了，他们自己也觉得错了，他们可能很后悔在 4000 点离场，只能看着别人一路赚钱到 5000 点。他们觉得做错了，其实他们是对的，只是太早了。我们对时机的把握永远都不可能准确无误。你必须有勇气、有信念，如果自己做的事情有充分的理由，最后事实终将证明你的行动是理智的。我自己就必须有勇气。我买价格正在下跌的东西，我买是因为便宜，是因为跌了，我喜欢，我就买了。它会继续下跌。我必须要很自信，相信自己是正确的。不能因为继续跌，就卖了。所以你要牢记，在事实最终证明你是正确的之前，是比别人早了很多，还是做错了，两者很难区分。13、资产管理人的任务是什么第一，控制风险。资产管理人的任务是什么？是赚很多钱？击败市场？是跑赢华尔街？这些我们都不同意。资产管理经理的第一工作是控制风险。我们橡树资产把风险控制放在最高级别来看待。我们把自己定位为一个另类的资产管理人。我们不投资主流的股票，主流的债券，我们发掘教少被关注的公司债，可转换证券，不良债券，可控投资（能源，基础建设），房地产，公开上市的股票（低估），新兴市场等，对应每一个类别，我们都有自己的投资策略。第二，稳定性。我们的投资绩效不会今年排名第一，然后明年排最后。我们一般在中间，因为我们杰出的风险控制，我们会在艰难的时段会突颖而出。我们在过去30年达成了这个目标。我们获得平均的收益，平均收益在牛市已经算是可以了，牛市每个人都赚钱，这已经足够了，但是我们的客户想要我们在熊市的时候业绩能够超出平均水平。非常简单的概括就是：牛市我们获得平均收益，熊市我们获得超额收益。如果我们能够一年又一年的，数十年的达成这个目标，会出现什么情况呢？我们的业绩波动性会低于平均水平。整体高出平均收益的回报，就是因为我们在熊市杰出的表现让我们把这个目标做到了，这也确实是很有必要的，这样我们的客户就会感到开心。我认为这就是我们公司成长的秘密，我们经过20年达到千亿美元的规模，从2006的35亿到达今天1000亿，我们真正开始资产管理业务是在2007年，2008年正是金融危机期间，我们至少在2007年接受了100亿资金，因为我们的业绩在熊市的时候会好过平均水平，我们能够为人们展示这个投资结果，大家就觉得橡树资本值得信赖，有能力交付一个持续的稳定的投资成绩。我们就成长了！第三，我们寻找的是不太有效的市场那部分。我们认为人们能够理解的那部分市场，投资者要获得优势去赚钱，是非常困难的；但是对于人们通常不能理解的那部分市场，你能够做到相对好一点，像债券，可转债券，个人抵押，基础实施建设，房地产，新兴市场......这些项目获得投资优势相对要容易一点，但也没那么容易，只是相对于充分有效的市场上的产品相对容易一点。第四，我们相信宏观经济的预测不是成功投资的关键。前面已经讲过，我不相信宏观预测行得通。我认为，宏观预测不是成功投资的必要条件。我所知道的所有的成功的投资者，甚至包括巴菲特在内，都不是因为宏观预测比别人做得更好才取得成功的。他们取得成功靠的是他们关于公司、行业和证券的知识。最后一点，我们不猜测市场涨跌。在管理资金时，我们不会因为我们认为市场要涨了，就把钱投进去，认为市场要跌了，就把钱拿出来。这样猜涨跌太容易错了。我们就是进入市场，然后基本就留在市场里。但是我们会从市场资产的价格和周围投资者的心理出发，调整进取或保守的程度。长期投资成功不是通过伟大的投资取得的，以棒球为喻，不是来自偶尔打出本垒打，投资者的长期成功源于构建一个安全的投资组合，其中失败的很少、糟糕的年份很少。要是你能把这件看起来简单、其实很难的事情做好，你就能在几十年里取得非常成功的投资业绩。这是我们的目标，我认为我们已经做到了。这就是我想和大家分享的。14、关于资产配置，霍华德建议1、正如鸡蛋不要放在同一个篮子里，我们对未来未知，因此每个人都该多元化投资。2、没有“Magic Number”（具体的投资配置比例）。对于投资者来说，投资需要一步步来，感觉好了，就多做一点，循序渐进，如果不了解，投资过多只会更糟，可以犯错，但不能血本无归。3、同时也不鼓励投资组合中用极小的比例（小于5%）去投资你看好的方面，因为过小的投资无论怎样的表现对你的组合起到的作用很小，没有意义。4、不要投资不理解的东西，如果完全不懂，就不要去做。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2890,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097661560,"gmtCreate":1645445177639,"gmtModify":1676534028464,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581989768565324","idStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097661560","repostId":"1179897507","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179897507","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"点拾是由行业最专业的投资研究人组成，专注于中国和海外新兴领域的互联网，消费，金融等行业研究。我们的研究，已经获得行业内最优秀的投资者认可，特别是消费，科技互联网和跨境比较是我们的优势。我们相信自己的努力一定能为您的投资助力。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"点拾投资","id":"67","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fe5d79ff06041f8a434a6ad9836f2e6"},"pubTimestamp":1645423968,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179897507?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-21 14:12","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Munger: How to face the huge pullback/retracement in investing?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179897507","media":"点拾投资","summary":"导读：这段时间市场出现了比较大的调整，也导致许多人的投资组合有所回撤。那么投资大师又是如何面对回撤的呢？今天分享一篇2019年我的好友，也是很优秀的基金经理黄韵翻译过的一篇关于查理·芒格如何面对回撤文","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Introduction:</b>During this period, the market has seen a relatively big adjustment, which also led to a pullback/retracement in many people's investment portfolios. So how do investment gurus face pullback/retracement? Today, I would like to share an article on how Charlie Munger faced pullback/retracement translated by my friend and excellent fund manager Huang Yun in 2019. Even today, it is particularly appropriate. This also shows from the side that no matter how good the company is, there is a huge pullback/retracement every few years.<b>Foreword:</b></p><p>The content of this chapter describes a slightly cruel real market, that is, both a long-term upward market and a long-term upward company will inevitably experience large downward fluctuations, which is very similar to the market environment we are in at present. How to face market losses calmly is quite difficult for any investor, because we have to consider not only the volatility of the investment portfolio, but also the feelings of fund holders. The demands of these two aspects are also contradictory in some extremely downward market environments. Maybe we as investors have the ability to bear market losses, but we may lose our investors as a result. As a great investment mentor, Munger's personal experience gives us a good lesson on how to really have patience, discipline, and the ability to not go crazy even when suffering losses and adversity.</p><p><b>Learn to bear losses</b></p><p><i><b>You need to have patience, discipline and the ability not to go crazy even in the face of loss and adversity.</b></i></p><p><i><b>-Charlie Munger, 2005</b></i></p><p>Without a doubt,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Are three of the most successful companies in the past decade. Their products have profoundly changed the way we live, and if their shareholders can stick to their shares for a long time, these shareholders will also receive huge investment returns. However, one of the oldest financial rules is that returns are always accompanied by risks. If you want to make a huge return on your investment, you are also doomed to take the risks that come with it.</p><p>Since its initial listing in 1997, Amazon's stock price has risen as much as 38,600%, equivalent to a compound annual rate of return of 35.5%. This means that an initial investment of $1,000 will become $387,000 by today. But in reality, the difficulty of actually turning that $1,000 into $387,000 over the past 20 years cannot be underestimated. Three times in history, Amazon's share price has fallen by more than 50%. The first was from December 1999 to October 2001, when it lost 95% of its market capitalization. During that time, the initial hypothetical $1,000 investment would have fallen from a high of $54,433 to $3,045, a loss of $51,388.</p><p>This is why it is not simple to say that being able to buy and hold a long-term winner. Perhaps you do know that \"Amazon is going to change the world,\" but even that won't make investing any easier.</p><p>Another revolutionary company, Netflix, has a compound yield of 38% since it went public in May 2002. But achieving this gain is also almost beyond the investment discipline one can afford. Netflix's share price has fallen by more than 50% four times, and it fell by more than 82% between July 2011 and September 2012. This amounts to an initial investment of $1,000 rising to $36,792 and then shrinking to $6,629. Will investors really be able to live with their initial investment in pullback/retracement more than thirty times? Especially the 500% gain disappeared in just 14 months!</p><p>Google is the youngest of the three, with a compounded annual rate of return of 25% since going public in 2004. He offers investors a better investment experience than holding Amazon or Netflix. Google's share price has fallen more than 50% only once, when it fell 65% between November 2007 and November 2008. A lot of investors couldn't stand this period when his stock price saw a sharp pullback/retracement. During these 264 days, Google's turnover reached $845 billion, while Google's average market value at that time was less than $153 billion. That said, shares were changed hands 5.5 times during that time, which cost many investors the opportunity to earn 515% returns over the next eight years.</p><p>Charlie Munger has never been interested in investing in companies such as Amazon, Netflix and Google. But the companies he has invested in for a long time that have allowed him to earn huge investment returns have also experienced huge pullback/retracement in a short period of time. Munger,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Vice Chairman of Hathaway, known for being a longtime partner of Warren Buffett. His intelligent and philosophical quotes are collectively called Mungerism.<b><i>He likes to think from multiple perspectives with different ways of thinking, and one of his famous quotes is \"If you know where I will die, then I will never go to that place\". \"People count too much and think too little,\" he said at Berkshire Hathaway's 2002 shareholder meeting.</i></b></p><p>One thing that separates Munger from most of us mediocre people is that he will never be drawn to investments outside his circle of competence. He once said \"We have three baskets, which are in, out, and too hard\". Investors should all follow his advice \"If the investment target is too difficult to analyze, we turn to other investment targets. Is there anything simpler than that?\".</p><p>Today, we have a lot of new products in the market that serve investors, and these products are like those purple and green fishing baits: I think the reason why our investment management is in trouble is as revealed by the following conversation I had with the tackle boss. I asked him, \"My God, these purple and green baits! Do fish really get hooked for this?\", and he said, \"Sir, I don't sell fish\".</p><p>In 1948, Munger graduated from Harvard Law School and followed in his father's footsteps to successfully carve out a career in law. In the early years of Munger's investing career, he earned his first million dollars by investing in real estate projects. His investing enthusiasm was ignited in 1959, the year Ed Davis introduced him to Buffett as his first investors. Buffett was surprised that he easily got $100,000 from Ed Davis, because Davis didn't seem to pay much attention to Buffett's investment strategy. The reason for this is that Buffett resembles Charlie Munger, another investor Davis wholeheartedly trusts. The two of them were so similar that Davis once filled out Munger's name on a check to Buffett.</p><p>Munger and Buffett hit it off. After years of communication, learning, and sharing with Buffett, Munger and other partners founded a law firm in 1962 (Munger, Tolles & Olson; Charlie left in 1965), and he also founded a hedge fund firm (Wheeler, Munger & Company).</p><p>Munger's investment performance is remarkable. From 1962 to 1969, the fund returned an incredible 37.1% per annum before rates. Especially when you look at the market environment at that time, this achievement is even more commendable. In these eight years, picking stocks has not been a simple task. In fact, the S&P 500, including Dividend, has only gained 6.6% in the same time. For the entire 14 years of the fund's existence, Munger's average annual return was 24%, with a compound rate of return of 19.82%, much higher than the index, and the S&P 500 (including Dividend) compounded rate of return was only 5.2% during the same period. Munger's limited partners will be profitable if they can persist with Munger, but this is not as easy as holding Amazon all the time.</p><p>One of the best lessons investors can learn from past history is that there are no good times without bad times. A long-term investment often contains large losses in short-term stages. If you can't accept short-term losses, it will be hard for you to reap long-term market returns. Munger said:</p><p><b><i>If you can't take two, three or more market declines of more than 50% in a century in stride, you are not a good investor, and you can only earn relatively mediocre investment returns compared to investors who can rationally handle market volatility</i></b>。</p><p>Warren Buffett once said of Munger: \"He is willing to accept greater ups and downs in performance. He happens to be a person with a concentrated psychological structure\". Of course, Munger is not only so simple as focus, his focus is based on diverse thinking at a higher level. At the end of 1974, 61% of its funds were invested in blue-chip printing companies. In that worst bear market since the Great Depression, this company did serious damage to Munger's portfolio. The blue-chip printing company's sales exceeded $124 million that year. But it soon began to decline, with sales plummeting to $9 million by 1982 and only $25,000 by 2006. \"Considering the initial business of Blue Chip Printing Company,\" I predicted that its sales would drop from $120 million to less than $100,000, so I predicted from the beginning that its business alone would almost be a failure business \"\".</p><p>However, Blue Chip Printing Company, as an important asset of fund investment, later provided a large amount of funds for the acquisition of See's Candy, Buffalo Evening News and Wesco Financial Company, and was incorporated into Berkshire Hathaway in 1983.</p><p>Munger lost 31.9% in 1973 (compared to-13.1% for the Dow Jones Industrial) and 31.5% in 1974 (compared to-23.1% for the Dow). Munger said, \"We were crushed by the market between 1973 and 1974, not because of truly undervalued value, but market value because our publicly traded securities had to trade at less than half of their true value.\" It was a tough experience — 1973 to 1974 was a very unpleasant experience. \"Munger was not alone, and it was a tough process for many great investors. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway fell from $80 in December 1972 to $40 in December 1974. The bear market of 1973 to 1974, the S&P 500, fell 50% (the Dow Jones Industrials fell 46.6%, straight back to 1958 levels).</p><p><b><i>The $1,000 invested with Charlie Munger from January 1, 1973 would become $467 by January 1, 1975. Even as the fund rose 73.2% in 1975, Munger lost its biggest investor, frustrating him and leading him to the decision to liquidate the fund.</i></b>This fund has earned a compounded return of 24.3% before deductions throughout its lifetime even through a brutal period of history from 1973 to 1974.</p><p>It's not just those star stocks that will drop more than 50%. Those indexes with long-term compound growth are also likely to have a pullback/retracement at one point. The Dow has grown 26,400% since 1914, which contains nine pullback/retracement over 30%. The Dow fell more than 90% during the Great Depression and did not return to its 1929 high until 1955. The Dow Jones index, a blue-chip index, experienced two major pullback/retracement in the first decade of the twenty-first century (a 38% decline during the tech bubble and a 54% decline during the financial crisis).</p><p>For most ordinary investors like you and me, if we are looking for a high return on our investment, huge losses are doomed to be a part of it, whether the investment cycle is a few years or a lifetime. Munger once said \"we are passionate about keeping it simple\". You can simplify everything you want, but it won't keep you away from losing money. Even portfolios with 50/50 equity and bond allocations lost 25% during the financial crisis.</p><p><b><i>There are several ways to deal with losses. The first is that the loss is absolute, i.e. the loss of your investment.</i></b>In Munger's case, he rarely had absolute losses. During his time running his hedge fund, he experienced a 53% decline, and his Berkshire Hathaway stock has fallen more than 20% on six occasions. For the unfamiliar, pullback/retracement is the downside from the high. In other words, it happened six times that Berkshire Hathaway fell more than 20% after hitting an all-time high.</p><p><b><i>The second type of loss is relative, your opportunity cost.</i></b>In the late nineties, when internet stocks took the country by storm, Berkshire didn't invest in them. It also took their toll. From June 1998 to March 2000, Berkshire fell 49%. What's more painful, however, is that Internet stocks continue to soar. The Nasdaq 100 is up 270% over the same period! In a 1999 Berkshire Hathaway letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett wrote that \"relative returns are our concern, and during the same period, bad relative returns have resulted in unsatisfactory absolute returns\".</p><p>Whether you invest in stocks or indexes, bad relative returns are a problem to face in investing. In the five-year dot-com bubble, Berkshire Hathaway's earnings performance lagged the S&P 500 by 117%! At the time, many people questioned whether Munger and Buffett were out of touch with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600628\">New World</a>。</p><p>The reason why Munger's wealth has continued to compound over the past 55 years is, in his own words:<i><b>Warren and I are not geniuses. We can't play chess or become piano players blindfolded. But our achievements are excellent because we are dominant in temperament, which is enough to compensate for our lack of IQ.</b></i></p><p>You have to be able to take the loss in stride. The right time to sell is not after the stock price has fallen. If you invest this way, you may be doomed to not achieve good long-term returns. Learn from history and don't try to avoid losses. Losses are inevitable. Instead, focus on ensuring that you don't put yourself in a situation where you will be forced to sell. If you know that stocks have fallen by more than 50% at one time, which will undoubtedly happen again in the future, make sure you can face and take on such situations in the future.</p><p>How to do it? Here's an example. Let's say your portfolio is worth $100,000 and you know you can't stand a loss of more than $30,000. Assuming that if the value of the stock is reduced in half and the bond will retain its value (which is definitely an assumption, there is no guarantee), then don't allocate more than 60% of the equity assets. That way even if those 60% of assets fall by half, you should be okay.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Munger: How to face the huge pullback/retracement in investing?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMunger: How to face the huge pullback/retracement in investing?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/67\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fe5d79ff06041f8a434a6ad9836f2e6);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">点拾投资 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-21 14:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Introduction:</b>During this period, the market has seen a relatively big adjustment, which also led to a pullback/retracement in many people's investment portfolios. So how do investment gurus face pullback/retracement? Today, I would like to share an article on how Charlie Munger faced pullback/retracement translated by my friend and excellent fund manager Huang Yun in 2019. Even today, it is particularly appropriate. This also shows from the side that no matter how good the company is, there is a huge pullback/retracement every few years.<b>Foreword:</b></p><p>The content of this chapter describes a slightly cruel real market, that is, both a long-term upward market and a long-term upward company will inevitably experience large downward fluctuations, which is very similar to the market environment we are in at present. How to face market losses calmly is quite difficult for any investor, because we have to consider not only the volatility of the investment portfolio, but also the feelings of fund holders. The demands of these two aspects are also contradictory in some extremely downward market environments. Maybe we as investors have the ability to bear market losses, but we may lose our investors as a result. As a great investment mentor, Munger's personal experience gives us a good lesson on how to really have patience, discipline, and the ability to not go crazy even when suffering losses and adversity.</p><p><b>Learn to bear losses</b></p><p><i><b>You need to have patience, discipline and the ability not to go crazy even in the face of loss and adversity.</b></i></p><p><i><b>-Charlie Munger, 2005</b></i></p><p>Without a doubt,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Are three of the most successful companies in the past decade. Their products have profoundly changed the way we live, and if their shareholders can stick to their shares for a long time, these shareholders will also receive huge investment returns. However, one of the oldest financial rules is that returns are always accompanied by risks. If you want to make a huge return on your investment, you are also doomed to take the risks that come with it.</p><p>Since its initial listing in 1997, Amazon's stock price has risen as much as 38,600%, equivalent to a compound annual rate of return of 35.5%. This means that an initial investment of $1,000 will become $387,000 by today. But in reality, the difficulty of actually turning that $1,000 into $387,000 over the past 20 years cannot be underestimated. Three times in history, Amazon's share price has fallen by more than 50%. The first was from December 1999 to October 2001, when it lost 95% of its market capitalization. During that time, the initial hypothetical $1,000 investment would have fallen from a high of $54,433 to $3,045, a loss of $51,388.</p><p>This is why it is not simple to say that being able to buy and hold a long-term winner. Perhaps you do know that \"Amazon is going to change the world,\" but even that won't make investing any easier.</p><p>Another revolutionary company, Netflix, has a compound yield of 38% since it went public in May 2002. But achieving this gain is also almost beyond the investment discipline one can afford. Netflix's share price has fallen by more than 50% four times, and it fell by more than 82% between July 2011 and September 2012. This amounts to an initial investment of $1,000 rising to $36,792 and then shrinking to $6,629. Will investors really be able to live with their initial investment in pullback/retracement more than thirty times? Especially the 500% gain disappeared in just 14 months!</p><p>Google is the youngest of the three, with a compounded annual rate of return of 25% since going public in 2004. He offers investors a better investment experience than holding Amazon or Netflix. Google's share price has fallen more than 50% only once, when it fell 65% between November 2007 and November 2008. A lot of investors couldn't stand this period when his stock price saw a sharp pullback/retracement. During these 264 days, Google's turnover reached $845 billion, while Google's average market value at that time was less than $153 billion. That said, shares were changed hands 5.5 times during that time, which cost many investors the opportunity to earn 515% returns over the next eight years.</p><p>Charlie Munger has never been interested in investing in companies such as Amazon, Netflix and Google. But the companies he has invested in for a long time that have allowed him to earn huge investment returns have also experienced huge pullback/retracement in a short period of time. Munger,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Vice Chairman of Hathaway, known for being a longtime partner of Warren Buffett. His intelligent and philosophical quotes are collectively called Mungerism.<b><i>He likes to think from multiple perspectives with different ways of thinking, and one of his famous quotes is \"If you know where I will die, then I will never go to that place\". \"People count too much and think too little,\" he said at Berkshire Hathaway's 2002 shareholder meeting.</i></b></p><p>One thing that separates Munger from most of us mediocre people is that he will never be drawn to investments outside his circle of competence. He once said \"We have three baskets, which are in, out, and too hard\". Investors should all follow his advice \"If the investment target is too difficult to analyze, we turn to other investment targets. Is there anything simpler than that?\".</p><p>Today, we have a lot of new products in the market that serve investors, and these products are like those purple and green fishing baits: I think the reason why our investment management is in trouble is as revealed by the following conversation I had with the tackle boss. I asked him, \"My God, these purple and green baits! Do fish really get hooked for this?\", and he said, \"Sir, I don't sell fish\".</p><p>In 1948, Munger graduated from Harvard Law School and followed in his father's footsteps to successfully carve out a career in law. In the early years of Munger's investing career, he earned his first million dollars by investing in real estate projects. His investing enthusiasm was ignited in 1959, the year Ed Davis introduced him to Buffett as his first investors. Buffett was surprised that he easily got $100,000 from Ed Davis, because Davis didn't seem to pay much attention to Buffett's investment strategy. The reason for this is that Buffett resembles Charlie Munger, another investor Davis wholeheartedly trusts. The two of them were so similar that Davis once filled out Munger's name on a check to Buffett.</p><p>Munger and Buffett hit it off. After years of communication, learning, and sharing with Buffett, Munger and other partners founded a law firm in 1962 (Munger, Tolles & Olson; Charlie left in 1965), and he also founded a hedge fund firm (Wheeler, Munger & Company).</p><p>Munger's investment performance is remarkable. From 1962 to 1969, the fund returned an incredible 37.1% per annum before rates. Especially when you look at the market environment at that time, this achievement is even more commendable. In these eight years, picking stocks has not been a simple task. In fact, the S&P 500, including Dividend, has only gained 6.6% in the same time. For the entire 14 years of the fund's existence, Munger's average annual return was 24%, with a compound rate of return of 19.82%, much higher than the index, and the S&P 500 (including Dividend) compounded rate of return was only 5.2% during the same period. Munger's limited partners will be profitable if they can persist with Munger, but this is not as easy as holding Amazon all the time.</p><p>One of the best lessons investors can learn from past history is that there are no good times without bad times. A long-term investment often contains large losses in short-term stages. If you can't accept short-term losses, it will be hard for you to reap long-term market returns. Munger said:</p><p><b><i>If you can't take two, three or more market declines of more than 50% in a century in stride, you are not a good investor, and you can only earn relatively mediocre investment returns compared to investors who can rationally handle market volatility</i></b>。</p><p>Warren Buffett once said of Munger: \"He is willing to accept greater ups and downs in performance. He happens to be a person with a concentrated psychological structure\". Of course, Munger is not only so simple as focus, his focus is based on diverse thinking at a higher level. At the end of 1974, 61% of its funds were invested in blue-chip printing companies. In that worst bear market since the Great Depression, this company did serious damage to Munger's portfolio. The blue-chip printing company's sales exceeded $124 million that year. But it soon began to decline, with sales plummeting to $9 million by 1982 and only $25,000 by 2006. \"Considering the initial business of Blue Chip Printing Company,\" I predicted that its sales would drop from $120 million to less than $100,000, so I predicted from the beginning that its business alone would almost be a failure business \"\".</p><p>However, Blue Chip Printing Company, as an important asset of fund investment, later provided a large amount of funds for the acquisition of See's Candy, Buffalo Evening News and Wesco Financial Company, and was incorporated into Berkshire Hathaway in 1983.</p><p>Munger lost 31.9% in 1973 (compared to-13.1% for the Dow Jones Industrial) and 31.5% in 1974 (compared to-23.1% for the Dow). Munger said, \"We were crushed by the market between 1973 and 1974, not because of truly undervalued value, but market value because our publicly traded securities had to trade at less than half of their true value.\" It was a tough experience — 1973 to 1974 was a very unpleasant experience. \"Munger was not alone, and it was a tough process for many great investors. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway fell from $80 in December 1972 to $40 in December 1974. The bear market of 1973 to 1974, the S&P 500, fell 50% (the Dow Jones Industrials fell 46.6%, straight back to 1958 levels).</p><p><b><i>The $1,000 invested with Charlie Munger from January 1, 1973 would become $467 by January 1, 1975. Even as the fund rose 73.2% in 1975, Munger lost its biggest investor, frustrating him and leading him to the decision to liquidate the fund.</i></b>This fund has earned a compounded return of 24.3% before deductions throughout its lifetime even through a brutal period of history from 1973 to 1974.</p><p>It's not just those star stocks that will drop more than 50%. Those indexes with long-term compound growth are also likely to have a pullback/retracement at one point. The Dow has grown 26,400% since 1914, which contains nine pullback/retracement over 30%. The Dow fell more than 90% during the Great Depression and did not return to its 1929 high until 1955. The Dow Jones index, a blue-chip index, experienced two major pullback/retracement in the first decade of the twenty-first century (a 38% decline during the tech bubble and a 54% decline during the financial crisis).</p><p>For most ordinary investors like you and me, if we are looking for a high return on our investment, huge losses are doomed to be a part of it, whether the investment cycle is a few years or a lifetime. Munger once said \"we are passionate about keeping it simple\". You can simplify everything you want, but it won't keep you away from losing money. Even portfolios with 50/50 equity and bond allocations lost 25% during the financial crisis.</p><p><b><i>There are several ways to deal with losses. The first is that the loss is absolute, i.e. the loss of your investment.</i></b>In Munger's case, he rarely had absolute losses. During his time running his hedge fund, he experienced a 53% decline, and his Berkshire Hathaway stock has fallen more than 20% on six occasions. For the unfamiliar, pullback/retracement is the downside from the high. In other words, it happened six times that Berkshire Hathaway fell more than 20% after hitting an all-time high.</p><p><b><i>The second type of loss is relative, your opportunity cost.</i></b>In the late nineties, when internet stocks took the country by storm, Berkshire didn't invest in them. It also took their toll. From June 1998 to March 2000, Berkshire fell 49%. What's more painful, however, is that Internet stocks continue to soar. The Nasdaq 100 is up 270% over the same period! In a 1999 Berkshire Hathaway letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett wrote that \"relative returns are our concern, and during the same period, bad relative returns have resulted in unsatisfactory absolute returns\".</p><p>Whether you invest in stocks or indexes, bad relative returns are a problem to face in investing. In the five-year dot-com bubble, Berkshire Hathaway's earnings performance lagged the S&P 500 by 117%! At the time, many people questioned whether Munger and Buffett were out of touch with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600628\">New World</a>。</p><p>The reason why Munger's wealth has continued to compound over the past 55 years is, in his own words:<i><b>Warren and I are not geniuses. We can't play chess or become piano players blindfolded. But our achievements are excellent because we are dominant in temperament, which is enough to compensate for our lack of IQ.</b></i></p><p>You have to be able to take the loss in stride. The right time to sell is not after the stock price has fallen. If you invest this way, you may be doomed to not achieve good long-term returns. Learn from history and don't try to avoid losses. Losses are inevitable. Instead, focus on ensuring that you don't put yourself in a situation where you will be forced to sell. If you know that stocks have fallen by more than 50% at one time, which will undoubtedly happen again in the future, make sure you can face and take on such situations in the future.</p><p>How to do it? Here's an example. Let's say your portfolio is worth $100,000 and you know you can't stand a loss of more than $30,000. Assuming that if the value of the stock is reduced in half and the bond will retain its value (which is definitely an assumption, there is no guarantee), then don't allocate more than 60% of the equity assets. That way even if those 60% of assets fall by half, you should be okay.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d30d3e4a8c584dc0c7143999338c880","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179897507","content_text":"导读：这段时间市场出现了比较大的调整，也导致许多人的投资组合有所回撤。那么投资大师又是如何面对回撤的呢？今天分享一篇2019年我的好友，也是很优秀的基金经理黄韵翻译过的一篇关于查理·芒格如何面对回撤文章。即便放到今天，也特别应景。这从侧面也看到无论是多么优秀的公司，每隔几年都会出现巨大的回撤。前言：这个章节的内容描述了一个略带残酷的现实市场，这就是无论是一个长期向上的市场还是一个长期向上的公司都难免会经历大幅的向下波动，这和我们当下所处的市场环境是何其的相似。而在遭受市场损失时如何从容面对，对于任何投资者而言都是相当不易的，因为我们不仅要考虑投资组合的波动率，我们还要考虑到基金持有人的感受。而这两方面的需求在某些极端下行的市场环境下也是相互矛盾的。也许我们作为投资人有能够承担市场损失的能力，但我们可能会因此失去我们的投资人。芒格作为伟大的投资导师，他的亲身经历给了我们很好的借鉴，如何真的拥有耐心、守纪以及即使遭受损失和身处逆境也不会疯掉的能力。学会承受损失你需要有耐心、守纪以及即使遭受损失和身处逆境也不会疯掉的能力。-查理.芒格，2005毫无疑问，奈飞、亚马逊和谷歌是过去十年中最成功的三个公司。他们的产品深刻地改变了我们生活方式，如果他们的股东能够长期坚持持有他们的股票，这些股东们也将获得巨大的投资收益。然而，最古老的一条金融法则之一就是收益永远和风险相伴。如果你想要获得巨大的投资收益，你也注定要承担相伴而来的风险。自1997年首次上市以来，亚马逊股价涨幅高达38600％，相当于年复合收益率35.5％。 这意味着初始1000美元的投资到今天将变为$ 387,000。 但实际上在过去20年中，要真的将这1000美金变为387,000美元的难度不容小觑。历史上，亚马逊的股价曾有三次跌幅超过50%。第一次是从1999年12月到2001年10月，它跌去了95％的市值。在那段时间内，初始假设的1,000美元投资将会从54,433美元的高位下跌至3,045美元，损失51,388美元。这也就是为什么会说能够买入并持有一个长期的赢家其实并不简单。也许你确实知道“亚马逊将会改变世界”，但即便如此，也不会使投资变得更加容易。另一家革命性的公司奈飞，自2002年5月上市以来的复合收益率为38％。但实现这个收益也几乎超出了人所能承受的投资纪律。奈飞的股价曾有四次跌幅超过50%，其在2011年7月至2012年9月间跌幅超过82%。这相当于初始投资的1,000美元涨到36,792美元，然后萎缩到6,629美元。投资者真的能够忍受他们的初始投资回撤三十多次吗？特别是500%收益在短短14个月内烟消云散！谷歌是这三家公司中最年轻的公司，自2004年上市以来的年复合收益率为25％。他为投资者提供了一个比持有亚马逊或Netflix更好的投资体验。 谷歌的股价只有一次跌幅超过50%，就是在2007年11月至2008年11月间跌幅达到65%。当他的股价大幅回撤时，很多投资都无法忍受这段时期。在这264天内，谷歌的换手量达到8450亿美金，而当时谷歌的平均市值不到1530亿美金。也就是说，这段时间内股票被换手了5.5次，这使很多投资者失去了未来八年能够获得515%回报的机会。查理芒格从来没有对投资亚马逊、奈飞、谷歌这类公司感过兴趣。但他长期投资过的那些让他获得巨大投资收益的公司也曾在短时期内出现过巨大的回撤。芒格，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的副董事长，以作为沃伦巴菲特的长期合作伙伴而闻名。他那些富有智慧和哲理的名言被统称为芒格主义。他喜欢用不同的思维方式从多个角度思考问题，他的名言之一是“如果知道我会死在哪里，那我将永远不去那个地方”。在2002年伯克希尔哈撒韦股东大会上他说“人们算得太多、想得太少”。将芒格和我们大部分平庸的人区分开的一点是他永远不会被他能力圈外的投资所吸引。他曾经说过“我们有三个篮子，分别是进入、退出、太难” 。投资者都应该遵循他的建议“如果投资标的太难分析，我们就转向其他的投资标的。还有比这更简单的事情吗？” 。今天，我们的市场上涌现出很多为投资者服务的新产品，这些产品就像那些紫色和绿色的鱼饵：我想我们的投资管理之所以陷入窘境的原因就像下面这个我和渔具老板的对话所揭示的道理那样。我问他：“我的天，这些紫的和绿的鱼饵！鱼真的会因此而上钩吗？”，他说：“先生，我不卖鱼” 。1948年，芒格毕业于哈佛大学法学院，并追随其父亲的脚步成功开拓了法律事业。在芒格的早期投资生涯中，他通过投资地产项目获得了他的第一个百万美元。1959年他的投资热情被彻底点燃，这一年埃德戴维斯（Ed Davis）作为巴菲特的第一批投资者将他介绍给了巴菲特。巴菲特惊讶于他很轻松的获得了埃德戴维斯的10万美金，因为戴维斯似乎并没有太在意巴菲特的投资策略。这其中的原因在于巴菲特很像戴维斯全心全意信任的另一位投资人查理芒格。他们两人如此之像以至于戴维斯曾经在给巴菲特的支票上填了芒格的名字。芒格和巴菲特一见如故。 在和巴菲特经过多年的沟通、相互学习和分享后，芒格在1962年和其他合伙人创办了一家律师事务所（Munger，Tolles＆Olson; 查理在1965年离开），同时他也创立了一个对冲基金公司（Wheeler，Munger＆Company）。芒格的投资业绩斐然。从1962年到1969年，该基金扣除费率之前的年均回报率达到令人难以置信的37.1％。尤其是当你结合当时的市场环境看的话，这个成绩更是显的难能可贵。在这八年中，挑选股票并不是件简单的事情。 事实上，标准普尔500指数（含股息）在同一时间内只上涨了6.6％。 在整个基金存续的14年内，芒格年均回报率为24％，复合收益率为19.82％，远高于指数，同期标准普尔500指数（含股息）复合收益率仅为5.2％。 芒格的有限合伙人如果能和芒格一道坚持下来也将收益丰厚，然而这件事就像一直坚持持有亚马逊公司一样并不那么容易。投资者从过往历史中可以学到的最好一条经验就是没有坏时光就没有好时光。在一段长期的投资中往往蕴含着短期阶段性的大幅损失。如果你不能接受短期的损失，那你很难收获长期的市场回报。芒格说过：如果你对于在一个世纪内发生两三次或者更多次市场超过50%下跌不能泰然处之，你就不适合做投资，并且和那些具有能理性处理市场波动的投资者相比也只能获得相对平庸的投资收益。沃伦巴菲特曾这样评价芒格：“他愿意接受业绩出现更大的起伏，他恰好是一位心理结构倾向集中的人”。当然芒格不仅是专注这么简单，他的专注是建立在更高层面上的多元化思考。1974年底，其61％的资金投资于蓝筹印花公司。在那个自大萧条以来最糟糕的熊市里，这个公司给芒格的投资组合带来了严重的损害。 蓝筹印花公司的销售额在当年超过了1.24亿美金。但是很快就开始减少，到1982年，销售额锐减至900万美元，到2006年仅为2.5万美金。 “考虑到蓝筹印花公司的初始业务，“我预测到其销售额将从1.2亿美金降到不足10万美金，所以我从开始就预测到了其业务单独看几乎就是一个会失败的业务””。然而蓝筹印花公司作为基金投资的重要的资产，在之后为收购喜诗糖果、布法罗晚报和韦斯科金融公司等提供了大量的资金，并于1983年被纳入伯克希尔哈撒韦公司旗下。芒格在1973年损失了31.9％（相比之下，道琼斯工业指数为-13.1％），在1974年损失了31.5％（相比之下道琼斯指数为-23.1％）。 芒格说：“我们在1973年到1974年间被市场碾压了，并不是因为被真实低估的价值，而是市场价值，因为我们的公开交易证券不得不在低于他们真正价值的一半价格下交易。 “这是一段艰难的经历 -- 1973年至1974年是一个非常不愉快的经历。”芒格并不孤单，对许多伟大的投资者来说，这都是一个很艰难的过程。巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司从1972年12月的80美元跌至1974年12月的40美元。1973年至1974年的熊市标准普尔500指数下跌50％（道琼斯工业指数下跌46.6％，直接回到1958年的水平）。与查理芒格一起从1973年1月1日开始投资的1,000美元到1975年1月1日将变为467美元。即使该基金在1975年上涨了73.2%，但芒格还是失去了其最大的投资人，这让他感到沮丧，并使他做出了清算基金的决定。这只基金在其整个生命周期即使经历了从1973年到1974年的残酷历史时期也获得了扣费前24.3%的复合收益率。不仅仅是那些明星股票会跌幅超过50%。那些长期复合增长的指数在某一个点上也都可能会发生回撤。道琼斯指数自1914年以来增长了26400%，其中包含了9次超过30%的回撤。在大萧条期间道指跌幅超过90%，直到1955年才回到1929年的那个高点。道琼斯指数作为蓝筹股指数在二十一世纪的第一个十年内就发生过两次大幅回撤（科技泡沫破灭期跌幅38%，金融危机期间跌幅54%）。对于像你我这样大多数普通的投资者而言，如果我们要寻求高额的投资回报，那么巨大亏损注定也是其中的一个部分，无论投资周期是几年还是一生。芒格曾经说过“我们热衷于保持简单” 。你可以简化你想要的一切，但这并不会使你远离亏损。即使是50/50的股票和债券配置的投资组合在金融危机期间也损失了25%。有几种方法来处理损失。第一是损失是绝对的，即你的投资损失。在芒格的例子里，他很少有绝对损失。在他管理他的对冲基金期间，他经历过53%的下跌，他持有的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的股票有过6次跌幅超过20%。对于不熟悉的人来说，回撤就是从高点开始的下行。换句话说，伯克希尔哈撒韦创历史新高后下跌超过20%的情况发生了6次。第二种类型的损失是相对的，即你的机会成本。 在九十年代末期，当互联网股票席卷全国时，伯克希尔并没有对其进行投资。这也让他们付出了代价。 从1998年6月到2000年3月，伯克希尔下跌了49%。 然而更痛苦的是，互联网股票在持续飙升。同期纳斯达克100指数上涨了270％！ 在1999年伯克希尔哈撒韦致股东的信中，沃伦巴菲特写道“相对收益是我们关心的问题，在同期，不好的相对收益造成了并不令人满意的绝对收益”。无论你是投资股票还是指数，不好的相对收益都是投资中要面对的一个问题。在五年的互联网泡沫中，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的收益表现落后于标准普尔500指数117％！当时很多人质疑芒格和巴菲特是否脱节与新世界。芒格的财富之所以能够在过去55年内持续复合增长的原因，用他自己的话说就是：沃伦和我并非奇才。我们不能蒙上眼睛下棋或成为钢琴演奏家。但我们的成绩斐然，因为我们在性情上占优势，这足以弥补我们在智商上的不足 。你必须能对损失泰然处之。合适的卖时点并不是在股价已经下跌之后。如果你这样投资，你可能就注定了不会取得好的长期回报。 从历史中学习，不要试图避免损失。 损失是不可避免的。相反，应该专注于确保没有把自己会被迫卖出的境地。如果你知道股票曾经跌幅超过50%，这种情况无疑将来还会发生，请确保你未来能面对和承担这样的情况。如何做？这里有个例子。假设你的投资组合价值10万美元并且你知道你不能忍受超过3万美元的损失。假设如果股票价值减少一半而债券将保留价值（这绝对是一个假设，没有任何保证），那就不要配置超过60%的股票资产。那样即使这60%的资产下跌一半，你也应该还好。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}