无欲2057 personal page - To The Moon

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2021-07-27

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Antitrust upgrade! The EU is eyeing two Google services again, requiring rectification within 2 months

2021-06-19

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2021-07-08

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2021-06-25

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XPeng Automobile-W will launch its IPO today, and the first-hand admission fee is about HK $18,181.39

2021-06-24

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A-shares have suffered in the past 10 years and will be much better in the next 10 years

2021-06-24

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2021-06-23

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2021-06-22

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2021-06-19

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2021-05-13

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Tiger Securities was included in the MSCI China All-Stock Index!

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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10:06","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Kuaishou-W stock price continues to hit a new low! It has fallen by nearly 30% in the past ten days","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121610023","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月12日，快手-W跌逾3%，股价续刷上市以来低位，该股股价已连续十个交易日下跌，累计跌幅近30%。\n摩根士丹利报告称，快手追赶竞争对手抖音的步伐不及预期，市场份额的分化将会持续，这会给快手的变现和盈","content":"<p>July 12th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">Kuaishou-W</a>It fell more than 3%, and the stock price continued to hit its lowest level since its listing. The stock price has fallen for ten consecutive trading days, with a cumulative decline of nearly 30%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Kuaishou catches up with rivals, report says<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">Douyin</a>The pace of market share is less than expected, and the differentiation of market share will continue, which will have an impact on Kuaishou's realization and profitability. The company's rating is downgraded to underweight, and the target price is lowered by nearly 57% to HK $130. The agency predicts that Kuaishou's net loss this year and next will exceed 12 billion yuan, due to the decline in gross profit margins of sub-sectors and the increase in user acquisition costs. Kuaishou's stock price has fallen for eight consecutive days, and the latest closing price is HK $160.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2806e917501ba249d102394ac4c56a85\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Kuaishou-W stock price continues to hit a new low! It has fallen by nearly 30% in the past ten days</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nKuaishou-W stock price continues to hit a new low! It has fallen by nearly 30% in the past ten days\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-12 10:06</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>July 12th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">Kuaishou-W</a>It fell more than 3%, and the stock price continued to hit its lowest level since its listing. The stock price has fallen for ten consecutive trading days, with a cumulative decline of nearly 30%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Kuaishou catches up with rivals, report says<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">Douyin</a>The pace of market share is less than expected, and the differentiation of market share will continue, which will have an impact on Kuaishou's realization and profitability. The company's rating is downgraded to underweight, and the target price is lowered by nearly 57% to HK $130. The agency predicts that Kuaishou's net loss this year and next will exceed 12 billion yuan, due to the decline in gross profit margins of sub-sectors and the increase in user acquisition costs. Kuaishou's stock price has fallen for eight consecutive days, and the latest closing price is HK $160.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2806e917501ba249d102394ac4c56a85\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3755fdda80ee4878d06bf1bcbfdbf496","relate_stocks":{"01024":"快手-W"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121610023","content_text":"7月12日，快手-W跌逾3%，股价续刷上市以来低位，该股股价已连续十个交易日下跌，累计跌幅近30%。\n摩根士丹利报告称，快手追赶竞争对手抖音的步伐不及预期，市场份额的分化将会持续，这会给快手的变现和盈利能力产生影响，下调公司评级至低配，并调降目标价近57%至130港元。该机构预计快手今明两年的净亏损将均超过120亿元人民币，因细分部门毛利率下降，用户获取成本的上升等。快手股价已八日连跌，最新收盘价为160港元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01024":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2856,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149185285,"gmtCreate":1625709458447,"gmtModify":1703746837064,"author":{"id":"3581983097481247","authorId":"3581983097481247","name":"无欲2057","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e1909dfac2a022786e0d074699d2f2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983097481247","authorIdStr":"3581983097481247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/149185285","repostId":"1114715564","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114715564","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625706507,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1114715564?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-08 09:08","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited with a trillion market value: Where is the confidence?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114715564","media":"海豚投研","summary":"动力电池产业链有望承载中国从制造大国晋升为制造强国的国家层战略，宁德动力电池技术迭代毫无疑问处于领先地位。同时，成本端依靠产业链的深度整合逐步构建壁垒。\n\n近日，宁德时代荣登中国上市公司万亿市值俱乐部","content":"<p>The power battery industry chain is expected to carry China's national strategy of promoting from a manufacturing power to a manufacturing power. CATL's power battery technology iteration is undoubtedly in a leading position. At the same time, the cost side relies on the deep integration of the industrial chain to gradually build barriers. Recently,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>Won the trillion market capitalization club of listed companies in China, and other members include Internet giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>, A-share \"technology ticket\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">Wuliangye</a>, cosmic travel and cosmic insurance, so it is basically monopolized by the three major industries of the Internet, liquor and finance.</p><p>CATL probably relies on its own experience in the new energy vehicle industry to cooperate with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The same weathervane-like existence, so I got the ticket.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9e4dec785f1bf26e5c623c7cb306438\" tg-width=\"433\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Behind the trillion-dollar market value of CATL, in addition to the vast market space of power batteries that have formed an industry consensus and the high growth of ten times in ten years, Mr. Dolphin believes that there is also an objective leading edge that China has achieved in the power battery industry chain.</p><p>As a high-end manufacturing industry,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600482\">China Dynamics</a>Batteries and major upstream raw materials are in an absolute leading position in the global market share. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited has been firmly ranked first in the world's power batteries since 2017, and at the same time has driven Chinese raw material companies to occupy more than half of the global market share.</p><p><b>Therefore, the power battery industry chain is expected to carry China's national strategy of promoting from a manufacturing power to a manufacturing power. As the leading brother, it seems reasonable for Ningde to have a market value of one trillion yuan. This is the macro tone set by Mr. Dolphin for the Ningde era.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59ea5a78cc8fe1b5c82f72c60dc641ce\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: GGII, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>However, studying a company cannot rely solely on faith. As far as CATL itself is concerned, Mr. Dolphin believes that we should focus on the following issues. This article mainly answers the first two questions:</p><p><ul><li>Power batteries are still in the stage of rapid iteration of technical routes. Is the current technical level of CATL absolutely ahead? Can you continue to maintain the lead? How much threat does the change of technical route pose to CATL's leading position?</p><p></li><li>The final game of most manufacturing industries is to compete for costs. Do power batteries also compete for costs in the end? If it is a cost competition, can CATL build barriers in cost control?</p><p></li><li>Driven by downstream demand, global power batteries are in a rapid production expansion cycle. How is Ningde's production expansion?</p><p></li><li>From a financial perspective, what are the characteristics of CATL? Under these financial characteristics, how is it valued?</p><p></li></ul>Here is the text:</p><p>1. Solid technical accumulation basically represents the high level of mass-produced batteries</p><p>Power battery is an industry that originates from technological innovation. Before technological maturity is achieved, technological leadership will always be a very important competitive dimension.</p><p>As for the underlying technology of power batteries, most people don't know much about it. Therefore, judging from the results, CATL's global market share in 2020 is 25%, and it will exceed 30% in the first quarter of 2021. In addition to established OEMs such as BMW and Yutong, its supporting customers have gradually entered the supply chain of Tesla and new car-making forces, so CATL is undoubtedly in a leading position in power battery technology.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f97663b80ef7e3c1c9e5d7c77dc7f94e\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: SNE Research, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/faa65daa1a17f20bcbaac483b30ed4ff\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: GICC, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p><b>It can also be seen from the above market share chart that the global power battery companies basically fall in China, Japan and South Korea.</b></p><p>Domestic CATL and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>Adopting the strategy of developing ternary and lithium iron phosphate together, BYD is more obviously partial to lithium iron phosphate, and the batteries are all prismatic batteries in shape;</p><p>LG Chem in Japan and South Korea,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PC\">Panasonic</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>The main focus is on ternary batteries, betting that ternary batteries will become the mainstream due to their high energy density, and the battery shapes are all cylindrical.</p><p>However, judging from the battery performance comparison table of various manufacturers below, CATL represents a high level in the field of power batteries, and has not reached the absolute leading edge of \"no one has what I have\".<b>Mainstream competitors have differences in the choice of technical routes. The products are not standardized, and they are still in the stage of contention among a hundred schools of thought. Consumers' concerns about the battery life, safety and life of electric vehicles also need to be gradually eliminated by relying on battery progress.</b></p><p>In the ternary battery camp, CATL's NCM811 basically represents the high level of large-scale installed power batteries. The same level includes LG Chem's 811 battery, which all belong to the technical direction of high nickel and low cobalt;</p><p>In the lithium iron phosphate battery camp, BYD's blade battery has achieved certain performance advantages due to its module-free process design, but CATL's lithium iron phosphate battery is newly equipped with Tesla, and its performance should not be bad;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44ff95c84637c28567f37cc01ba3400d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: brokerage research reports, news information, compilation by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>So let's take a look at the direction of technological progress. Is there a risk of CATL being left behind? Mr. Dolphin rationally sorted out the technological development of batteries.<b>It is divided into two aspects: the breakthrough of material system and the improvement of manufacturing process.</b>Breakthroughs in material systems can be divided into positive electrodes, negative electrodes, electrolytes and other aspects. The current technology mainstream and development direction in various aspects are shown in the following table:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/943636fd4b22d73f81f3016db736d4d0\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"228\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: brokerage research reports, news information, compilation by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Whether it is the high nickel and cobalt-free positive electrode materials, the silicon-based + lithium supplementation of negative electrode materials, the electrolyte from liquid to solid, or the module-free form of structural design, CATL has actively deployed and closely followed the technological development direction, and made sufficient technical reserves.<b>Even if the risk of technical route change exists objectively, the probability of Ningde being technically thrown off in the short to medium term should be relatively low.</b></p><p>Going back one step further, the root of CATL's current technological leadership and continued leading position in the future is its corporate gene of focusing on R&D, and the technical management has a strong sense of R&D investment.</p><p>The picture below shows the core management of CATL. The company's core team comes from the power battery department of ATL, the leader in the digital lithium battery industry. Chairman Zeng Yuqun and Vice Chairman Huang Shilin once held core positions (president and R&D director) in ATL. Later, ATL was acquired by Japanese capital After the acquisition, Zeng Yuqun and Huang Shilin separated from the ATL battery division in 2011 and gradually became independent.</p><p>Therefore, although CATL was established in 2011 and seems to have a relatively short history, it has a concept and technology inheritance from the root, which is why BMW,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600066\">Yutong Bus</a>Waiting for the help of noble people, and subsequently securing the world's number one throne.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d7b62e6cd87967698366c0d689200ba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"773\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: company announcement, compilation by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Under the corporate genes that focus on research and development, CATL has also spent real money. In 2018, the absolute amount of R&D investment surpassed LG Chem, ranking first in the world for three consecutive years, far surpassing domestic second-tier battery companies; In 2020, 3.6 billion yuan will be invested in research and development, accounting for more than 7% of revenue.</p><p>From the perspective of the R&D team, as a manufacturing company, the company has 5,592 R&D personnel in 2020, accounting for 18%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a40f19241c7713cd6d44966e2e8b931\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: wind, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Summary: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's concepts and technologies have been inherited from ATL and have solid accumulation. They basically represent the high level of power battery technology, but they have not reached the absolute leading edge of \"what others have\".</p><p>At the same time, power batteries are in the stage of rapid technological iteration, and Ningde must continue to conduct research and development of cutting-edge technologies in the future, so as to secure its first position in the industry.</p><p>Second, complete technology and cost comparison, CATL deeply integrates the industrial chain to build cost barriers</p><p>The end result of most manufacturing industries is to compete for costs, and they are hard-working industries that cannot be earned by lying down. Therefore, there are only two manufacturing industries in the entire Greater China region that have entered the trillion-dollar club, one with a market value of 3.5 trillion<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>, one is the new Ningde era with a market value of 1.2 trillion.</p><p>The core of TSMC's ability to grow into a giant of such a size is that TSMC is essentially a manufacturing industry that does not compete for costs but for the manufacturing process itself. The technology of chip manufacturing itself iterates quickly, and TSMC's technological advantages in advanced manufacturing processes can guarantee the company's excess profit margin. When second-and third-tier companies achieve technological catch-up, TSMC's advanced process products will be positioned as mature products within the company. Through scale Advantages lower prices, thereby suppressing the progress of second-and third-tier companies and compressing the profit levels of second-and third-tier companies.</p><p>Moreover, the chip itself is a precision component, and the cost of raw materials accounts for a low proportion. Nearly 90% of the cost is in manufacturing expenses. The investment scale of equipment and production lines is large, which constitutes a barrier to entry. At the same time, it especially amplifies the scale effect of leading companies. Strong, one company dominates.</p><p>Therefore, TSMC has seized about 60% of the global market share, and has also achieved profitability that far exceeds that of its peers (the net profit rate in 2020 is 38%, and the net profit rate of second-tier companies is about 5%), and has seized more than 90% of the chip foundry industry. profit, and the moat is solid.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a96919e15621517702e689e413c61ae7\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: wind, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Recently, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited has become the second manufacturing company with a market value of one trillion yuan. Is it expected to become the next TSMC?</p><p>Mr. Dolphin believes that the logic of CATL is weaker than that of TSMC, and there are essential differences in the core elements of power battery manufacturing and chip manufacturing (as shown in the figure below).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e55444419e96728e9551e11f3697b\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: company financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>TSMC: Mr. Dolphin just mentioned that chips are precision components, raw material costs account for less than 10%, and manufacturing costs account for about 90%. Among them, manufacturing costs are mainly depreciation and amortization of equipment and production lines. Therefore, TSMC's production The core elements of manufacturing are the equipment and production lines required for production, as well as the process capabilities behind them;</p><p>Starting from production equipment, chip foundries and upstream equipment factories have strong R&D synergy. The equipment manufacturer deeply bound to TSMC is ASML (Dutch, lithography manufacturer). Under the collaborative research and development with TSMC, ASML released its first immersible lithography, successfully surpassing the previous leader Nikon.</p><p>Therefore, when domestic manufacturers cannot get the equipment even if they pay in full, and Samsung equipment is out of stock, because of the synergy between ASML and TSMC, ASML has given the scarce production capacity to TSMC, and TSMC's leading advantage in advanced manufacturing processes continues to maintain.</p><p>Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited: From the perspective of cost structure splitting, the power battery industry does not rely much on investment in fixed assets, and manufacturing costs only account for 12% of the cost. On the contrary, material procurement accounts for more than 80%. Therefore, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's production and manufacturing The core element is raw materials.</p><p>Starting from raw materials, CATL has launched its mighty vertical integration of the industrial chain, including upstream mineral resources, midstream raw materials and production equipment. At the same time, it has achieved a closed loop of the industrial chain through battery recycling, basically involved in the entire power battery industry chain, especially in terms of cathode materials that determine key performance such as battery capacity and safety.</p><p><ul><li>Cathode materials: Guangdong Bangpu was acquired in 2015 to produce ternary precursors, and then Ningbo Bangpu, a joint venture company, was established to expand production capacity; Lithium iron phosphate cathode holds 40% equity of Qujing Lintie, locks in the production capacity of lithium iron phosphate, and jointly builds production capacity with multiple partners;</p><p></li><li>Upstream mineral resources of positive and negative electrodes: deepen the control of mineral resources through holding, mergers and acquisitions, long-term order locking, etc., and make a global layout to ensure the normal production of positive and negative electrodes and electrolytes;</p><p></li><li>Anode materials: Pingnan Times, which is 100% controlled, supplies silicon-based anodes, and others are basically supplied by external suppliers;</p><p></li><li>Electrolyte: Times Sikang, which holds 66% of the shares, builds lithium salt projects, and others are supplied externally;</p><p></li><li>Diaphragm: basically externally supplied;</p><p></li><li>Equipment: Participation<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300450\">Pilot intelligence</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300648\">Nebula Shares</a>Fixed increase is convenient to lock in core equipment production capacity.</p><p></li></ul>Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's deep integration of the industrial chain has a strong appeal to companies in the industrial chain. At the current stage of demand-driven production expansion of the entire industry chain, the layout of the entire industry chain enables CATL to ensure that the supply of each link can keep up with its own production expansion rhythm, maintain its market leadership, and at the same time control the impact of raw material price fluctuations to a certain extent. Disturbances to profitability. Only when the subsequent production capacity is sufficient will it be more reflected in effective cost control.</p><p>In addition, mineral resources are relatively scarce. Ningde's lock-in on upstream mineral resources may, to a certain extent, benchmark TSMC's advantages in production equipment with limited production capacity.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e9ab04090f3b5be244bfd7c4653df3d\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"220\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e43f6345d4372009cd594bddb6fce5f9\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: company announcements, brokerage research reports, news, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>In addition to the deep integration of the vertical industrial chain, compared with overseas competitors, CATL basically uses domestic suppliers, Panasonic is basically a Japanese supplier, and LG Chem and Samsung SDI have relatively obvious global procurement characteristics, so domestic low-cost manufacturing The advantages are conducive to CATL's further gaining comparative advantages;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f55d4892a4adc48613a4b9c2d3a97af\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"197\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: brokerage research reports, news, compilation of Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>After the deep integration of the above-mentioned industrial chain, CATL has achieved profitability far better than its competitors. The complex business structure of the three giants in Japan and South Korea has affected operating profit margins to a certain extent, but the large gap with CATL is difficult to hide.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9755b3a2b04ff5ab0c3ff35928a5dad2\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: compiled by wind and Dolphin Investment Research (Note: Ningde Times counts net profit margins; LG Chem, Panasonic and Samsung SDI count operating profit margins)</p><p>Looking forward to the future, the price of power batteries, which account for about 40% of the cost of new energy vehicles, will definitely show a downward trend as the technology progresses. Therefore, cost control is the commanding height to ensure profitability. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited still has not escaped the fate of fighting for costs in the manufacturing industry, and its barriers and leading advantages cannot match TSMC's.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87b3d365fc41f0ce675689638218564a\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: company financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>However, Mr. Dolphin believes that although the cost will ultimately be compared, the threshold of capital and technology is still relatively high. It should be less likely that excessive competition will lower profits, and it is more likely to form a pattern of several dominant companies. Although it is not as moist as TSMC, but With a pattern similar to automotive glass & a global market space of trillions, the outcome of the power battery industry will not be bad.</p><p>Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited is currently unlikely to be absent from its leading position. It has maintained technological progress, and on the cost side, it has gradually built a moat by virtue of the deep integration of the industrial chain and the lock-in of scarce upstream mineral resources;</p><p>At the same time, considering that the world's main competitors come from large group companies in Japan and South Korea, China's huge local market is a unique advantage for Ningde. In the future, Chinese electric vehicle companies will first take China's own power battery companies when overtaking in corners.</p><p>In addition, compared with LG Chem, Panasonic and Samsung SDI, Ningde's focus on power batteries and the higher operating efficiency of private enterprises have also increased its probability of winning in the end.</p><p>To sum up, whether it is comparing technology or cost, CATL is the company with the greatest probability of coming out in the power battery industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f41e5837b72b81357be0e84aaeae5c6\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"167\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Marklines, EV Sales, Dolphin Investment Research</p>","source":"lsy1607051923659","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited with a trillion market value: Where is the confidence?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nContemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited with a trillion market value: Where is the confidence?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">海豚投研</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-08 09:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The power battery industry chain is expected to carry China's national strategy of promoting from a manufacturing power to a manufacturing power. CATL's power battery technology iteration is undoubtedly in a leading position. At the same time, the cost side relies on the deep integration of the industrial chain to gradually build barriers. Recently,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>Won the trillion market capitalization club of listed companies in China, and other members include Internet giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>, A-share \"technology ticket\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">Wuliangye</a>, cosmic travel and cosmic insurance, so it is basically monopolized by the three major industries of the Internet, liquor and finance.</p><p>CATL probably relies on its own experience in the new energy vehicle industry to cooperate with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The same weathervane-like existence, so I got the ticket.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9e4dec785f1bf26e5c623c7cb306438\" tg-width=\"433\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Behind the trillion-dollar market value of CATL, in addition to the vast market space of power batteries that have formed an industry consensus and the high growth of ten times in ten years, Mr. Dolphin believes that there is also an objective leading edge that China has achieved in the power battery industry chain.</p><p>As a high-end manufacturing industry,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600482\">China Dynamics</a>Batteries and major upstream raw materials are in an absolute leading position in the global market share. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited has been firmly ranked first in the world's power batteries since 2017, and at the same time has driven Chinese raw material companies to occupy more than half of the global market share.</p><p><b>Therefore, the power battery industry chain is expected to carry China's national strategy of promoting from a manufacturing power to a manufacturing power. As the leading brother, it seems reasonable for Ningde to have a market value of one trillion yuan. This is the macro tone set by Mr. Dolphin for the Ningde era.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59ea5a78cc8fe1b5c82f72c60dc641ce\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: GGII, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>However, studying a company cannot rely solely on faith. As far as CATL itself is concerned, Mr. Dolphin believes that we should focus on the following issues. This article mainly answers the first two questions:</p><p><ul><li>Power batteries are still in the stage of rapid iteration of technical routes. Is the current technical level of CATL absolutely ahead? Can you continue to maintain the lead? How much threat does the change of technical route pose to CATL's leading position?</p><p></li><li>The final game of most manufacturing industries is to compete for costs. Do power batteries also compete for costs in the end? If it is a cost competition, can CATL build barriers in cost control?</p><p></li><li>Driven by downstream demand, global power batteries are in a rapid production expansion cycle. How is Ningde's production expansion?</p><p></li><li>From a financial perspective, what are the characteristics of CATL? Under these financial characteristics, how is it valued?</p><p></li></ul>Here is the text:</p><p>1. Solid technical accumulation basically represents the high level of mass-produced batteries</p><p>Power battery is an industry that originates from technological innovation. Before technological maturity is achieved, technological leadership will always be a very important competitive dimension.</p><p>As for the underlying technology of power batteries, most people don't know much about it. Therefore, judging from the results, CATL's global market share in 2020 is 25%, and it will exceed 30% in the first quarter of 2021. In addition to established OEMs such as BMW and Yutong, its supporting customers have gradually entered the supply chain of Tesla and new car-making forces, so CATL is undoubtedly in a leading position in power battery technology.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f97663b80ef7e3c1c9e5d7c77dc7f94e\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: SNE Research, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/faa65daa1a17f20bcbaac483b30ed4ff\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: GICC, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p><b>It can also be seen from the above market share chart that the global power battery companies basically fall in China, Japan and South Korea.</b></p><p>Domestic CATL and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>Adopting the strategy of developing ternary and lithium iron phosphate together, BYD is more obviously partial to lithium iron phosphate, and the batteries are all prismatic batteries in shape;</p><p>LG Chem in Japan and South Korea,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PC\">Panasonic</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>The main focus is on ternary batteries, betting that ternary batteries will become the mainstream due to their high energy density, and the battery shapes are all cylindrical.</p><p>However, judging from the battery performance comparison table of various manufacturers below, CATL represents a high level in the field of power batteries, and has not reached the absolute leading edge of \"no one has what I have\".<b>Mainstream competitors have differences in the choice of technical routes. The products are not standardized, and they are still in the stage of contention among a hundred schools of thought. Consumers' concerns about the battery life, safety and life of electric vehicles also need to be gradually eliminated by relying on battery progress.</b></p><p>In the ternary battery camp, CATL's NCM811 basically represents the high level of large-scale installed power batteries. The same level includes LG Chem's 811 battery, which all belong to the technical direction of high nickel and low cobalt;</p><p>In the lithium iron phosphate battery camp, BYD's blade battery has achieved certain performance advantages due to its module-free process design, but CATL's lithium iron phosphate battery is newly equipped with Tesla, and its performance should not be bad;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44ff95c84637c28567f37cc01ba3400d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: brokerage research reports, news information, compilation by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>So let's take a look at the direction of technological progress. Is there a risk of CATL being left behind? Mr. Dolphin rationally sorted out the technological development of batteries.<b>It is divided into two aspects: the breakthrough of material system and the improvement of manufacturing process.</b>Breakthroughs in material systems can be divided into positive electrodes, negative electrodes, electrolytes and other aspects. The current technology mainstream and development direction in various aspects are shown in the following table:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/943636fd4b22d73f81f3016db736d4d0\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"228\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: brokerage research reports, news information, compilation by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Whether it is the high nickel and cobalt-free positive electrode materials, the silicon-based + lithium supplementation of negative electrode materials, the electrolyte from liquid to solid, or the module-free form of structural design, CATL has actively deployed and closely followed the technological development direction, and made sufficient technical reserves.<b>Even if the risk of technical route change exists objectively, the probability of Ningde being technically thrown off in the short to medium term should be relatively low.</b></p><p>Going back one step further, the root of CATL's current technological leadership and continued leading position in the future is its corporate gene of focusing on R&D, and the technical management has a strong sense of R&D investment.</p><p>The picture below shows the core management of CATL. The company's core team comes from the power battery department of ATL, the leader in the digital lithium battery industry. Chairman Zeng Yuqun and Vice Chairman Huang Shilin once held core positions (president and R&D director) in ATL. Later, ATL was acquired by Japanese capital After the acquisition, Zeng Yuqun and Huang Shilin separated from the ATL battery division in 2011 and gradually became independent.</p><p>Therefore, although CATL was established in 2011 and seems to have a relatively short history, it has a concept and technology inheritance from the root, which is why BMW,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600066\">Yutong Bus</a>Waiting for the help of noble people, and subsequently securing the world's number one throne.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d7b62e6cd87967698366c0d689200ba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"773\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: company announcement, compilation by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Under the corporate genes that focus on research and development, CATL has also spent real money. In 2018, the absolute amount of R&D investment surpassed LG Chem, ranking first in the world for three consecutive years, far surpassing domestic second-tier battery companies; In 2020, 3.6 billion yuan will be invested in research and development, accounting for more than 7% of revenue.</p><p>From the perspective of the R&D team, as a manufacturing company, the company has 5,592 R&D personnel in 2020, accounting for 18%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a40f19241c7713cd6d44966e2e8b931\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: wind, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Summary: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's concepts and technologies have been inherited from ATL and have solid accumulation. They basically represent the high level of power battery technology, but they have not reached the absolute leading edge of \"what others have\".</p><p>At the same time, power batteries are in the stage of rapid technological iteration, and Ningde must continue to conduct research and development of cutting-edge technologies in the future, so as to secure its first position in the industry.</p><p>Second, complete technology and cost comparison, CATL deeply integrates the industrial chain to build cost barriers</p><p>The end result of most manufacturing industries is to compete for costs, and they are hard-working industries that cannot be earned by lying down. Therefore, there are only two manufacturing industries in the entire Greater China region that have entered the trillion-dollar club, one with a market value of 3.5 trillion<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>, one is the new Ningde era with a market value of 1.2 trillion.</p><p>The core of TSMC's ability to grow into a giant of such a size is that TSMC is essentially a manufacturing industry that does not compete for costs but for the manufacturing process itself. The technology of chip manufacturing itself iterates quickly, and TSMC's technological advantages in advanced manufacturing processes can guarantee the company's excess profit margin. When second-and third-tier companies achieve technological catch-up, TSMC's advanced process products will be positioned as mature products within the company. Through scale Advantages lower prices, thereby suppressing the progress of second-and third-tier companies and compressing the profit levels of second-and third-tier companies.</p><p>Moreover, the chip itself is a precision component, and the cost of raw materials accounts for a low proportion. Nearly 90% of the cost is in manufacturing expenses. The investment scale of equipment and production lines is large, which constitutes a barrier to entry. At the same time, it especially amplifies the scale effect of leading companies. Strong, one company dominates.</p><p>Therefore, TSMC has seized about 60% of the global market share, and has also achieved profitability that far exceeds that of its peers (the net profit rate in 2020 is 38%, and the net profit rate of second-tier companies is about 5%), and has seized more than 90% of the chip foundry industry. profit, and the moat is solid.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a96919e15621517702e689e413c61ae7\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: wind, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Recently, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited has become the second manufacturing company with a market value of one trillion yuan. Is it expected to become the next TSMC?</p><p>Mr. Dolphin believes that the logic of CATL is weaker than that of TSMC, and there are essential differences in the core elements of power battery manufacturing and chip manufacturing (as shown in the figure below).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e55444419e96728e9551e11f3697b\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: company financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>TSMC: Mr. Dolphin just mentioned that chips are precision components, raw material costs account for less than 10%, and manufacturing costs account for about 90%. Among them, manufacturing costs are mainly depreciation and amortization of equipment and production lines. Therefore, TSMC's production The core elements of manufacturing are the equipment and production lines required for production, as well as the process capabilities behind them;</p><p>Starting from production equipment, chip foundries and upstream equipment factories have strong R&D synergy. The equipment manufacturer deeply bound to TSMC is ASML (Dutch, lithography manufacturer). Under the collaborative research and development with TSMC, ASML released its first immersible lithography, successfully surpassing the previous leader Nikon.</p><p>Therefore, when domestic manufacturers cannot get the equipment even if they pay in full, and Samsung equipment is out of stock, because of the synergy between ASML and TSMC, ASML has given the scarce production capacity to TSMC, and TSMC's leading advantage in advanced manufacturing processes continues to maintain.</p><p>Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited: From the perspective of cost structure splitting, the power battery industry does not rely much on investment in fixed assets, and manufacturing costs only account for 12% of the cost. On the contrary, material procurement accounts for more than 80%. Therefore, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's production and manufacturing The core element is raw materials.</p><p>Starting from raw materials, CATL has launched its mighty vertical integration of the industrial chain, including upstream mineral resources, midstream raw materials and production equipment. At the same time, it has achieved a closed loop of the industrial chain through battery recycling, basically involved in the entire power battery industry chain, especially in terms of cathode materials that determine key performance such as battery capacity and safety.</p><p><ul><li>Cathode materials: Guangdong Bangpu was acquired in 2015 to produce ternary precursors, and then Ningbo Bangpu, a joint venture company, was established to expand production capacity; Lithium iron phosphate cathode holds 40% equity of Qujing Lintie, locks in the production capacity of lithium iron phosphate, and jointly builds production capacity with multiple partners;</p><p></li><li>Upstream mineral resources of positive and negative electrodes: deepen the control of mineral resources through holding, mergers and acquisitions, long-term order locking, etc., and make a global layout to ensure the normal production of positive and negative electrodes and electrolytes;</p><p></li><li>Anode materials: Pingnan Times, which is 100% controlled, supplies silicon-based anodes, and others are basically supplied by external suppliers;</p><p></li><li>Electrolyte: Times Sikang, which holds 66% of the shares, builds lithium salt projects, and others are supplied externally;</p><p></li><li>Diaphragm: basically externally supplied;</p><p></li><li>Equipment: Participation<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300450\">Pilot intelligence</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300648\">Nebula Shares</a>Fixed increase is convenient to lock in core equipment production capacity.</p><p></li></ul>Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's deep integration of the industrial chain has a strong appeal to companies in the industrial chain. At the current stage of demand-driven production expansion of the entire industry chain, the layout of the entire industry chain enables CATL to ensure that the supply of each link can keep up with its own production expansion rhythm, maintain its market leadership, and at the same time control the impact of raw material price fluctuations to a certain extent. Disturbances to profitability. Only when the subsequent production capacity is sufficient will it be more reflected in effective cost control.</p><p>In addition, mineral resources are relatively scarce. Ningde's lock-in on upstream mineral resources may, to a certain extent, benchmark TSMC's advantages in production equipment with limited production capacity.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e9ab04090f3b5be244bfd7c4653df3d\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"220\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e43f6345d4372009cd594bddb6fce5f9\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: company announcements, brokerage research reports, news, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>In addition to the deep integration of the vertical industrial chain, compared with overseas competitors, CATL basically uses domestic suppliers, Panasonic is basically a Japanese supplier, and LG Chem and Samsung SDI have relatively obvious global procurement characteristics, so domestic low-cost manufacturing The advantages are conducive to CATL's further gaining comparative advantages;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f55d4892a4adc48613a4b9c2d3a97af\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"197\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: brokerage research reports, news, compilation of Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>After the deep integration of the above-mentioned industrial chain, CATL has achieved profitability far better than its competitors. The complex business structure of the three giants in Japan and South Korea has affected operating profit margins to a certain extent, but the large gap with CATL is difficult to hide.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9755b3a2b04ff5ab0c3ff35928a5dad2\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: compiled by wind and Dolphin Investment Research (Note: Ningde Times counts net profit margins; LG Chem, Panasonic and Samsung SDI count operating profit margins)</p><p>Looking forward to the future, the price of power batteries, which account for about 40% of the cost of new energy vehicles, will definitely show a downward trend as the technology progresses. Therefore, cost control is the commanding height to ensure profitability. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited still has not escaped the fate of fighting for costs in the manufacturing industry, and its barriers and leading advantages cannot match TSMC's.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87b3d365fc41f0ce675689638218564a\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: company financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>However, Mr. Dolphin believes that although the cost will ultimately be compared, the threshold of capital and technology is still relatively high. It should be less likely that excessive competition will lower profits, and it is more likely to form a pattern of several dominant companies. Although it is not as moist as TSMC, but With a pattern similar to automotive glass & a global market space of trillions, the outcome of the power battery industry will not be bad.</p><p>Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited is currently unlikely to be absent from its leading position. It has maintained technological progress, and on the cost side, it has gradually built a moat by virtue of the deep integration of the industrial chain and the lock-in of scarce upstream mineral resources;</p><p>At the same time, considering that the world's main competitors come from large group companies in Japan and South Korea, China's huge local market is a unique advantage for Ningde. In the future, Chinese electric vehicle companies will first take China's own power battery companies when overtaking in corners.</p><p>In addition, compared with LG Chem, Panasonic and Samsung SDI, Ningde's focus on power batteries and the higher operating efficiency of private enterprises have also increased its probability of winning in the end.</p><p>To sum up, whether it is comparing technology or cost, CATL is the company with the greatest probability of coming out in the power battery industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f41e5837b72b81357be0e84aaeae5c6\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"167\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Marklines, EV Sales, Dolphin Investment Research</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/skEQIUmG4DelypWVwD5BNA\">海豚投研</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983e0432c72ee1117f6c5b8a19ed6e25","relate_stocks":{"300750":"宁德时代"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/skEQIUmG4DelypWVwD5BNA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114715564","content_text":"动力电池产业链有望承载中国从制造大国晋升为制造强国的国家层战略，宁德动力电池技术迭代毫无疑问处于领先地位。同时，成本端依靠产业链的深度整合逐步构建壁垒。\n\n近日，宁德时代荣登中国上市公司万亿市值俱乐部，其他会员则包括了互联网巨无霸腾讯和阿里巴巴、A股“科技票”贵州茅台和五粮液、宇宙行和宇宙险，所以基本上被互联网、白酒和金融三大行业垄断了。\n宁德时代大概是凭借自身在新能源汽车行业，与特斯拉一样的风向标式的存在，才取得的入场券吧。\n\n宁德时代万亿市值背后，除了已经形成行业共识的动力电池广阔的市场空间和十年十倍的高增长之外，海豚君认为，还有中国在动力电池产业链上已经取得的客观的领先优势。\n作为高端制造业，中国动力电池及上游主要原材料在全球市占率处于绝对领先地位，宁德时代自2017年开始便坐稳全球动力电池第一宝座，同时带动了中国原材料公司占据全球一半以上的市场份额。\n因此，动力电池产业链有望承载中国从制造大国晋升为制造强国的国家层战略，宁德作为带头大哥，市值站上万亿似乎也在情理之中，这是海豚君给宁德时代的宏观定调。\n\n数据来源：GGII、海豚投研整理\n但是研究一家公司不能单纯靠信仰，就宁德时代本身，海豚君认为应该核心关注以下几个问题，本篇主要回答前两个问题：\n\n动力电池仍处于技术路线快速迭代的阶段，目前宁德时代的技术水平是否绝对领先？能否继续保持领先优势？技术路线变更对宁德时代的龙头地位的威胁有多大？\n制造业大多数的终局是比拼成本，动力电池最终是否也是比拼成本？如果是比拼成本的话，宁德时代能否在成本管控上构建壁垒？\n受下游需求的带动，全球动力电池正处于快速扩产周期，宁德的扩产情况如何？\n财务角度，宁德时代有哪些特征？在这些财务特征下，如何估值？\n\n以下为正文：\n一 技术积淀扎实 基本代表量产电池高水准\n动力电池是一个源于技术创新的行业，在实现技术成熟之前，技术的领先性一直会是很重要的竞争维度。\n而动力电池底层的技术，大多数人也是不甚了解，因此我们从结果来看，宁德时代2020年全球市占率25%，2021年一季度超过30%，配套客户除了宝马、宇通这些老牌主机厂之外，也逐步走进特斯拉和造车新势力的供应链，因此宁德在动力电池技术方面毫无疑问是处于领先地位的。\n\n数据来源：SNE Research，海豚投研整理\n\n数据来源：GICC，海豚投研整理\n从上述市占率的图也可以看出，全球动力电池强企基本落在中日韩三国。\n国内的宁德时代和比亚迪采取了三元和磷酸铁锂一并发展的策略，比亚迪更加明显地偏科磷酸铁锂，电池形状上均为方形电池；\n日韩的LG化学、松下和三星则主要聚焦在三元电池上，押宝三元电池因高能量密度会成为主流，电池形状则均采用圆柱型。\n不过从下面各厂商电池性能对比表来看，宁德时代代表了动力电池领域的高水准，并没有达到“人无我有”的绝对领先优势。主流的竞争对手在技术路线选择上存在差异，产品未标准化，仍属于百家争鸣的阶段，消费者对电动车的续航、安全和寿命的担忧也还需要依靠电池的进步来逐渐消除。\n三元电池阵营，宁德时代的NCM811基本代表了大规模装机动力电池中的高水准，与之同水平的包括LG化学的811电池，均属于高镍低钴的技术方向；\n磷酸铁锂电池阵营，比亚迪的刀片电池因无模组的工艺设计取得了一定的性能优势，但宁德时代的磷酸铁锂电池新晋配套特斯拉，应该性能不差；\n\n数据来源：券商研报、新闻资讯、海豚投研整理\n那么接下来再来看看技术进步的方向，宁德时代是否有被甩开的风险呢？海豚君对电池的技术发展进行了条理性地梳理，分为材料体系的突破和制造工艺的改良两个方面，材料体系的突破又可以分为正极、负极、电解液等各个方面。各方面当前的技术主流和发展方向如下表所示：\n\n数据来源：券商研报、新闻资讯、海豚投研整理\n无论是正极材料的高镍化和无钴化、负极材料的硅基+补锂、电解质从液态到固态，还是结构设计上的无模组形式，宁德时代都进行了积极布局，紧跟技术发展方向，做了充分的技术储备。即使技术路线变更的风险客观存在，中短期内宁德在技术上被甩开的概率应该也比较低。\n再向前追溯一步，宁德时代当前的技术领先性和未来持续保持领先地位的根源是其注重研发的企业基因，技术出身的管理层具备较强的研发投入的意识。\n下图是宁德时代核心管理层，公司核心团队来源于数码锂电池行业龙头ATL的动力电池部门，董事长曾毓群和副董事长黄世霖曾在ATL担任核心岗位（总裁和研发总监），后来ATL被日资收购后，2011年曾毓群和黄世霖从ATL电池事业部中脱离出来，逐步独立。\n所以，虽然宁德时代成立于2011年，看起来历史沿革比较短，但从根源是有理念和技术传承的，也因此才有宝马、宇通客车等贵人的相助，以及后续坐稳全球第一的宝座。\n\n数据来源：公司公告、海豚投研整理\n在注重研发的企业基因下，宁德时代也砸了真金白银。2018年研发投入绝对金额超越LG化学，连续三年位居全球第一，远超国内二线电池企业；2020年研发投入36亿元，营收占比超7%。\n从研发团队的角度看，作为制造企业，2020年公司研发人员5592人，占比18%。\n\n数据来源：wind，海豚投研整理\n小结：宁德时代理念和技术传承自ATL，积淀扎实，基本代表了动力电池技术的高水准，但并没有达到“人无我有”的绝对领先优势。\n同时动力电池处于技术快速迭代阶段，宁德后续必须持续进行前沿技术的研发，才有望坐稳行业第一把交椅的位置。\n二 比完技术比成本 宁德时代深度整合产业链 构建成本壁垒\n制造业大多数的终局是比拼成本，是不能躺赚的有苦力行业，所以整个大中华区进入万亿俱乐部的只有两家制造业，一个是市值3.5万亿的台积电，一个是新晋的市值1.2万亿的宁德时代。\n台积电能成长为如此体量的巨无霸，核心是台积电本质上不是比拼成本而是比拼制造工艺本身的制造业。芯片制造本身技术迭代快，台积电在先进制程上的技术优势可以保障公司超额利润率水平，而在二三线公司实现技术追赶时，台积电的先进制程产品在公司内部会被定位为成熟产品，通过规模优势压低价格，从而打压二三线公司的进步、压缩二三线公司的利润水平。\n并且芯片本身属于精密部件，原材料成本占比低，接近90%的成本在制造费用上，设备和产线投资规模大，构成进入壁垒的同时，尤其放大了头部公司的规模效应，强者恒强，一家独大。\n所以台积电抢占了全球大约60%的市占率，还取得了远超同行的盈利水平（2020年净利率38%，二线公司净利率5%左右），攫取了芯片代工行业超90%的利润，并且护城河牢固。\n\n数据来源：wind，海豚投研整理\n而最近，宁德时代成为第二个万亿市值的制造业公司，有望成为下一个台积电吗？\n海豚君认为，宁德时代的逻辑是比台积电弱的，动力电池制造和芯片制造在核心要素上存在本质差异（如下图）。\n\n数据来源：公司财报，海豚投研整理\n台积电：海豚君刚刚提到，芯片是精密部件，原材料成本占比不足10%，而制造费用占比约90%，其中制造费用中又以设备和产线的折旧摊销为主，因此台积电生产制造的核心要素是生产所需要的设备和产线，以及背后的工艺能力；\n从生产设备下手，芯片代工厂与上游设备厂具备较强的研发协同性，台积电深度绑定的设备制造商是ASML（荷兰，光刻机制造商）。ASML在与台积电的协同研发下，发布了首款浸润式光刻机，成功超越了之前的龙头尼康。\n因此，在国内厂商全款付钱都拿不到设备、三星设备缺货的情况下，因为ASML和台积电之间的协同性，ASML把紧缺的产能给了台积电，台积电在先进制程上的领先优势持续保持。\n宁德时代：从成本结构拆分的角度看，动力电池产业不太依赖固定资产的投资，制造费用仅占成本的12%，相反，材料采购的占比则高超80%，所以宁德时代生产制造的核心要素是原材料。\n从原材料下手，宁德时代展开了其浩浩荡荡的产业链纵向整合，包括上游的矿产资源、中游的原材料和生产设备，同时通过电池回收实现了产业链的闭环，基本涉足了动力电池整条产业链，尤其是在决定电池容量、安全等关键性能的正极材料方面。\n\n正极材料：2015年收购广东邦普，生产三元前驱体，随后建立合资公司宁波邦普扩大产能；磷酸铁锂正极则持股曲靖麟铁40%股权，锁定磷酸铁锂产能，并与多方合作厂商合建产能；\n正极上游矿产资源：通过控股、兼并收购、长单锁定等方式加深对矿产资源的掌控，全球布局，保障正负极及电解液的正常生产；\n负极材料：100%控股的屏南时代自供硅基负极之外，其他基本由外部供应商供应；\n电解液：持股66%的时代思康建设锂盐项目，其他外供；\n隔膜：基本为外供；\n设备：参与先导智能和星云股份定增，方便锁定核心设备产能。\n\n宁德时代对产业链进行深度整合，对产业链公司的号召力是极强的。在当前全产业链需求驱动扩产的阶段，全产业链布局使得宁德时代有能力保障各环节的供应跟得上自己的扩产节奏，保持市场领先优势，同时可以在一定程度上控制原材料价格波动对盈利能力的扰动。在后续产能充足时才更多体现为对成本的有效管控。\n另外，矿产资源相对具备稀缺性，宁德对上游矿产资源的锁定，也许在一定程度上可对标台积电在产能有限的生产设备上的优势。\n\n\n数据来源：公司公告、券商研报、新闻、海豚投研整理\n除了纵向产业链的深度整合之外，相比海外竞争对手，宁德时代基本采用国产供应商，松下基本为日本供应商，LG化学和三星SDI全球采购的特征相对明显，因此国内低成本制造的优势有利于宁德时代进一步取得相对优势；\n\n数据来源：券商研报、新闻、海豚投研整理\n在上述产业链深度整合之后，宁德时代取得了远好于竞争对手的盈利能力，日韩三家巨头复杂的业务结构在一定程度上影响营业利润率，但与宁德时代较大的差距是难以掩盖的。\n\n数据来源：wind、海豚投研整理（注：宁德时代统计的为净利率；LG化学、松下和三星SDI统计的为营业利润率）\n展望未来，占据新能源车40%左右成本的动力电池，技术进步的同时，价格必定还要呈现下降趋势，因此控制成本是保障盈利的制高点。宁德时代依然没有脱离制造业拼成本的宿命，壁垒和领先优势都无法媲美台积电。\n\n数据来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理\n不过海豚君认为，虽然最终要比成本，但资金、技术等门槛还是比较高的，应该不太会过度竞争压低利润，比较可能会形成几家独大的格局，虽不像台积电一样滋润，但类似汽车玻璃一样的格局&全球数万亿的市场空间，动力电池行业的终局也不会差。\n而宁德时代是目前来看不太可能缺席龙头地位的公司，技术上保持进步，成本端则凭借对产业链的深度整合以及对具备稀缺性的上游矿产资源的锁定逐步构筑护城河；\n同时考虑全球主要竞争对手来自日韩的大集团公司，中国巨大的本土市场对宁德来讲是得天独厚的优势，未来中国电动车企的弯道超车首先要带的也是中国自己的动力电池企业。\n另外相对LG化学、松下和三星SDI，宁德对动力电池的聚焦和民营企业更高的运营效率，也增大了其最终获胜的概率。\n总结一句话，不论是比技术还是比成本，宁德时代都是动力电池行业有最大概率能走出来的企业。\n\n数据来源：Marklines、EV Sales、海豚投研整理","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"300750":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3079,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126782508,"gmtCreate":1624584774404,"gmtModify":1703840963749,"author":{"id":"3581983097481247","authorId":"3581983097481247","name":"无欲2057","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e1909dfac2a022786e0d074699d2f2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983097481247","authorIdStr":"3581983097481247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/126782508","repostId":"1182915557","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3094,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126788706,"gmtCreate":1624584740805,"gmtModify":1703840961800,"author":{"id":"3581983097481247","authorId":"3581983097481247","name":"无欲2057","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e1909dfac2a022786e0d074699d2f2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983097481247","authorIdStr":"3581983097481247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/126788706","repostId":"2146025528","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2884,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126788032,"gmtCreate":1624584720226,"gmtModify":1703840960180,"author":{"id":"3581983097481247","authorId":"3581983097481247","name":"无欲2057","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e1909dfac2a022786e0d074699d2f2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983097481247","authorIdStr":"3581983097481247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/126788032","repostId":"1190242896","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190242896","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624571770,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190242896?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-25 05:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Didi updates prospectus, IPO priced at $13.5","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190242896","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"北京时间6月25日凌晨消息，滴滴今日更新招股书，预计将把美国IPO定价设在定价区间的中部13.5美元/ADS，计划通过美国IPO发行2.88亿份ADS，代表7200万股A类普通股。\n北京时间6月11日","content":"<p>In the early morning of June 25th, Beijing time, Didi updated its prospectus today. It is expected to set the US IPO price at US $13.5/ADS in the middle of the pricing range. It plans to issue 288 million ADSs through the US IPO, representing 72 million Class A shares. common stock.</p><p>On June 11, Beijing time, DIDI Chuxing officially submitted an IPO application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and plans to list on the New York Stock Exchange under the stock code \"DIDI\". Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, and China Renaissance served as underwriters.</p><p>According to the prospectus, in the 12 months ended March 31, 2021, Didi's global annual active users were 493 million and global annual active drivers were 15 million. Among them, from March 31, 2020 to March 31, 2021, Didi has 377 million annual active users and 13 million annual active drivers in China. In the first quarter of 2021, Didi China Travel had 156 million monthly active users, and the average daily transaction volume of China's travel business was 25 million.</p><p>As of March 2021, Didi operates in more than 4,000 cities and towns in 15 countries, including China, providing online ride-hailing, taxis, hitchhiking, shared bicycles, shared motorcycles, driving, car services, freight, financial and autonomous driving services.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Didi updates prospectus, IPO priced at $13.5</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDidi updates prospectus, IPO priced at $13.5\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-25 05:56</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In the early morning of June 25th, Beijing time, Didi updated its prospectus today. It is expected to set the US IPO price at US $13.5/ADS in the middle of the pricing range. It plans to issue 288 million ADSs through the US IPO, representing 72 million Class A shares. common stock.</p><p>On June 11, Beijing time, DIDI Chuxing officially submitted an IPO application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and plans to list on the New York Stock Exchange under the stock code \"DIDI\". Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, and China Renaissance served as underwriters.</p><p>According to the prospectus, in the 12 months ended March 31, 2021, Didi's global annual active users were 493 million and global annual active drivers were 15 million. Among them, from March 31, 2020 to March 31, 2021, Didi has 377 million annual active users and 13 million annual active drivers in China. In the first quarter of 2021, Didi China Travel had 156 million monthly active users, and the average daily transaction volume of China's travel business was 25 million.</p><p>As of March 2021, Didi operates in more than 4,000 cities and towns in 15 countries, including China, providing online ride-hailing, taxis, hitchhiking, shared bicycles, shared motorcycles, driving, car services, freight, financial and autonomous driving services.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf210b0a9da00c82cb2c925171714e26","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190242896","content_text":"北京时间6月25日凌晨消息，滴滴今日更新招股书，预计将把美国IPO定价设在定价区间的中部13.5美元/ADS，计划通过美国IPO发行2.88亿份ADS，代表7200万股A类普通股。\n北京时间6月11日，滴滴出行正式向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）递交IPO申请，拟于纽交所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI“。高盛、摩根士丹利、摩根大通、华兴资本担任承销商。\n招股书显示，在截至2021年3月31日的12个月里，滴滴全球年活跃用户为4.93亿，全球年活跃司机1500万。其中，自2020年3月31日至2021年3月31日，滴滴在中国拥有3.77亿年活跃用户和1300万年活跃司机。2021年第一季度，滴滴中国出行拥有1.56亿月活用户，中国出行业务日均交易量为2500万次。\n截至2021年3月，滴滴在包括中国在内的15个国家约4000多个城镇开展业务，提供网约车、出租车、顺风车、共享单车、共享电单车、代驾、车服、货运、金融和自动驾驶等服务。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIDI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2618,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126783343,"gmtCreate":1624584689882,"gmtModify":1703840957111,"author":{"id":"3581983097481247","authorId":"3581983097481247","name":"无欲2057","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e1909dfac2a022786e0d074699d2f2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983097481247","authorIdStr":"3581983097481247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/126783343","repostId":"1183560687","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2834,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126789989,"gmtCreate":1624584667441,"gmtModify":1703840955817,"author":{"id":"3581983097481247","authorId":"3581983097481247","name":"无欲2057","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e1909dfac2a022786e0d074699d2f2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983097481247","authorIdStr":"3581983097481247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/126789989","repostId":"1183560687","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126780976,"gmtCreate":1624584628395,"gmtModify":1703840953555,"author":{"id":"3581983097481247","authorId":"3581983097481247","name":"无欲2057","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e1909dfac2a022786e0d074699d2f2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983097481247","authorIdStr":"3581983097481247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/126780976","repostId":"1102925117","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102925117","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624582814,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102925117?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-25 09:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"XPeng Automobile-W will launch its IPO today, and the first-hand admission fee is about HK $18,181.39","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102925117","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月25日，小鹏汽车-W发布公告，公司于6月25日至6月30日招股；拟全球发售8500万股股份，其中香港发售股份425万股，国际发售股份8075万股，另有15%超额配股权；每股发行价不超过180港元，","content":"<p>June 25th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">XPeng Motor-W</a>Announced that the company will issue an IPO from June 25th to June 30th; It plans to sell 85 million shares globally, including 4.25 million shares offered in Hong Kong, 80.75 million shares offered internationally, and a 15% over-allotment option; The issue price per share does not exceed HK $180, each lot of trading unit is 100 shares, and the admission fee is about HK $18,181.39; The Shares are expected to be listed on the Main Board of the Stock Exchange on July 7.</p><p><b>Tiger Trade will open for subscription at 11:30 [</b><a href=\"https://www-web.itiger.com/mi/ipo/index/hk/listing\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Subscription entrance</b></a><b>】</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e2905fbe978b70a1fadc57bfb9804ec\" tg-width=\"891\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Subscription ladder:</p><p>There are 100 shares per lot, and the admission fee is HK $18,181.39.</p><p>The threshold for Group B is 30,000 shares, and the funds required for subscription are approximately HK $5,454,415.8.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8dafe8d708afb61e06e25e0b275bf27\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Founded in 2015, XPeng Motors has developed into the country's leading smart electric vehicle company, listed on the New York Stock Exchange in August 2020. XPeng Motor is engaged in the design, research and development, manufacturing and marketing of smart electric vehicles in the PRC. According to IHS Markit, as of the Latest Practicable Date, the company is the only automobile company in China that independently develops full-stack autonomous driving technology and applies the software to mass-produced vehicles. The company is building a rapidly expanding and diversified portfolio of attractive smart electric vehicle models to meet the growing demand for smart electric vehicles and the differentiated needs of its broad customer base.</p><p>As of 2021Q1, XPeng Automobile has 178 sales stores and 61 service centers nationwide, covering 70 cities, and most of the stores are located in shopping malls. In terms of charging facility network layout, as of 2021Q1, there are 172 XPeng brand super charging stations across the country, covering 60 cities. The company offers a free charging plan to eligible car owners, and by the end of March, the plan has covered more than 140 cities.</p><p>In terms of financial data, the company achieved significant growth and strong operating results during the Track Record Period. From 2018 to 2020, the company's total revenue increased from 9.706 million yuan to 5.844 billion yuan. With strong revenue growth, the company's gross profit margin increased from (24.3%) in 2018 to 4.6% in 2020, turning positive. In the first quarter of 2021, the company recorded total revenue of 450 million yuan, net loss of 120 million yuan, and gross profit margin of 11.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/853e033a96dad5cd098377abcd2fede8\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of fund-raising purposes, based on the upper limit of the offer price of HK $180, the IPO is expected to receive net proceeds of approximately HK $15.039 billion from the global offering (after deducting underwriting commissions and other estimated expenses related to the global offering). The company intends to use the net proceeds from the share offer for the following purposes: approximately 45% is expected to be used to expand the company's product portfolio and develop more advanced technologies; About 35% is expected to be used to accelerate the company's business expansion by enhancing the company's brand awareness, acquiring customers through omni-channel marketing strategies, and increasing sales and service coverage in domestic and international markets; Approximately 10% is expected to be used to improve production capacity, including expanding production capacity, upgrading production facilities and developing production technology; Approximately 10% is expected to be used for general corporate purposes, including working capital.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>XPeng Automobile-W will launch its IPO today, and the first-hand admission fee is about HK $18,181.39</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXPeng Automobile-W will launch its IPO today, and the first-hand admission fee is about HK $18,181.39\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-25 09:00</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>June 25th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">XPeng Motor-W</a>Announced that the company will issue an IPO from June 25th to June 30th; It plans to sell 85 million shares globally, including 4.25 million shares offered in Hong Kong, 80.75 million shares offered internationally, and a 15% over-allotment option; The issue price per share does not exceed HK $180, each lot of trading unit is 100 shares, and the admission fee is about HK $18,181.39; The Shares are expected to be listed on the Main Board of the Stock Exchange on July 7.</p><p><b>Tiger Trade will open for subscription at 11:30 [</b><a href=\"https://www-web.itiger.com/mi/ipo/index/hk/listing\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Subscription entrance</b></a><b>】</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e2905fbe978b70a1fadc57bfb9804ec\" tg-width=\"891\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Subscription ladder:</p><p>There are 100 shares per lot, and the admission fee is HK $18,181.39.</p><p>The threshold for Group B is 30,000 shares, and the funds required for subscription are approximately HK $5,454,415.8.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8dafe8d708afb61e06e25e0b275bf27\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Founded in 2015, XPeng Motors has developed into the country's leading smart electric vehicle company, listed on the New York Stock Exchange in August 2020. XPeng Motor is engaged in the design, research and development, manufacturing and marketing of smart electric vehicles in the PRC. According to IHS Markit, as of the Latest Practicable Date, the company is the only automobile company in China that independently develops full-stack autonomous driving technology and applies the software to mass-produced vehicles. The company is building a rapidly expanding and diversified portfolio of attractive smart electric vehicle models to meet the growing demand for smart electric vehicles and the differentiated needs of its broad customer base.</p><p>As of 2021Q1, XPeng Automobile has 178 sales stores and 61 service centers nationwide, covering 70 cities, and most of the stores are located in shopping malls. In terms of charging facility network layout, as of 2021Q1, there are 172 XPeng brand super charging stations across the country, covering 60 cities. The company offers a free charging plan to eligible car owners, and by the end of March, the plan has covered more than 140 cities.</p><p>In terms of financial data, the company achieved significant growth and strong operating results during the Track Record Period. From 2018 to 2020, the company's total revenue increased from 9.706 million yuan to 5.844 billion yuan. With strong revenue growth, the company's gross profit margin increased from (24.3%) in 2018 to 4.6% in 2020, turning positive. In the first quarter of 2021, the company recorded total revenue of 450 million yuan, net loss of 120 million yuan, and gross profit margin of 11.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/853e033a96dad5cd098377abcd2fede8\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of fund-raising purposes, based on the upper limit of the offer price of HK $180, the IPO is expected to receive net proceeds of approximately HK $15.039 billion from the global offering (after deducting underwriting commissions and other estimated expenses related to the global offering). The company intends to use the net proceeds from the share offer for the following purposes: approximately 45% is expected to be used to expand the company's product portfolio and develop more advanced technologies; About 35% is expected to be used to accelerate the company's business expansion by enhancing the company's brand awareness, acquiring customers through omni-channel marketing strategies, and increasing sales and service coverage in domestic and international markets; Approximately 10% is expected to be used to improve production capacity, including expanding production capacity, upgrading production facilities and developing production technology; Approximately 10% is expected to be used for general corporate purposes, including working capital.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a7cf240033f083a329240e6179df017","relate_stocks":{"09868":"小鹏汽车-W","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102925117","content_text":"6月25日，小鹏汽车-W发布公告，公司于6月25日至6月30日招股；拟全球发售8500万股股份，其中香港发售股份425万股，国际发售股份8075万股，另有15%超额配股权；每股发行价不超过180港元，每手买卖单位100股，入场费约18181.39港元；预期股份将于7月7日于联交所主板挂牌上市。\nTiger Trade将于11:30开放申购【申购入口】\n\n申购阶梯：\n每手100股，入场费18181.39港元。\n乙组门槛为3万股，申购所需资金约5454415.8港元。\n\n小鹏汽车成立于2015年，目前已发展成中国领先的智能电动汽车公司，于2020年8月在纽交所上市。小鹏汽车在中国从事智能电动汽车的设计、研发、制造及营销。根据IHS Markit的数据，截至最后实际可行日期，公司是中国唯一一家自主开发全栈式自动驾驶技术，并在量产汽车上应用该软件的汽车公司。公司正在打造一个快速扩展、多元化的具有吸引力的智能电动汽车车型组合，以满足智能电动汽车日益增长的需求以及广大客户群的差异化需求。\n截至2021Q1，小鹏汽车全国销售门店达178家，服务中心达61家，覆盖70个城市，绝大多数门店均位于购物中心。充电设施网络布局方面，截至2021Q1，全国共有172座小鹏品牌超级充电站，覆盖60个城市。公司向符合条件的车主提供免费充电计划，截至3月底，该计划已覆盖超过140个城市。\n财务数据方面，于往绩记录期间，公司实现了显著的增长及强劲的经营业绩。2018年至2020年，公司总收入由970.6万元增长至58.44亿元。随着收入的强劲增长，公司毛利率从2018年的(24.3%)增长至2020年的4.6%，实现转正。2021年一季度，公司录得总收入4.50亿元，净亏损1.20亿元，毛利率达到11.2%。\n\n筹资用途方面，以发售价的上限180港元计算，此次IPO预计自全球发售收取所得款项净额约150.39亿港元（经扣除包销佣金及与全球发售有关的其他估计开支）。公司拟将股份发售所得款项净额用于以下用途：约45%预期将用于拓展公司的产品组合及开发更先进的技术；约35%预期将用于通过提升公司的品牌认知度，借助全渠道营销策略获取客户，以及在国内及国际市场增加销售及服务覆盖，来加速公司的业务扩张；约10%预期将用于提升生产能力，包括扩大产能、升级生产设施和开发生产技术；约10%预期将用于一般公司用途，包括用作运营资金。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09868":0.9,"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2828,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128350695,"gmtCreate":1624502811217,"gmtModify":1703838584717,"author":{"id":"3581983097481247","authorId":"3581983097481247","name":"无欲2057","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e1909dfac2a022786e0d074699d2f2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983097481247","authorIdStr":"3581983097481247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/128350695","repostId":"2145901125","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2145901125","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624501141,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2145901125?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-24 10:19","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Stocks, bonds, and commodities are all in the red. Who went wrong?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145901125","media":"财经自媒体","summary":"本周以来，股票、债券和大宗商品市场均上涨，呈现出股、债、商三牛的局面。本轮股、债、商品三市齐涨局面并不稳定，大概率是债市错误定价，后续或面临调整。商品在持续多日大跌之后，黑色系，双焦带动商品市场恢复涨势。流动性充裕是推动股、债、大宗商品市场同时上涨的主要原因之一。狭义流动性的充裕助推同期三轮股、债、商品齐涨。大宗商品与股市可通过盈利周期相连通，而大宗商品和债市难以持续出现齐涨局面。","content":"<p>CORE POINT</p><p>Since the beginning of this week, the stock, bond and commodity markets have all risen, showing a situation of three bulls in stocks, bonds and businesses. Historically, commodities and the stock market can be connected through the profit cycle, and then both rise together. However, from the perspective of inflation expectations, the rise in commodities and the rise in the bond market are often difficult to sustain, and the contradiction between them shows that one of them has mispriced. In this round of rising in the three cities, the temporary recovery of the bond market is due to the \"illusion\" of funds and the recede of inflation concerns. Therefore, we believe that this rise in the bond market may be wrong.</p><p>Since the beginning of this week, the stock, bond and commodity markets have all risen, showing a situation of three bulls in stocks, bonds and businesses. In the stock market, low prices, low valuations, and high growth sectors support the continued rebound of A shares. In the early stage of the third quarter, especially before and after the disclosure of the interim report results, there is still room for improvement in market activity, which is expected to drive the market to further stabilize and rebound; In terms of the commodity market, affected by factors such as tight supply, inventory destocking, and production restriction policies, black series and double focus have driven the commodity market to resume its upward trend; In the bond market, after the tax payment day, inter-bank liquidity improved slightly, which boosted the sentiment of spot bonds, resulting in a general decline in yields in recent days. Overnight and 7-day interest rates fell but cross-month prices remained high.</p><p>Stocks, bonds and commodities in history have soared together. Looking back at history, we summarized seven stages in which stocks, bonds and commodities rose simultaneously. From the perspective of broad liquidity and narrow liquidity, abundant liquidity is one of the main reasons for the simultaneous rise of stock, bond and commodity markets. Specifically, looking at the relationship between the three cities, commodities and the stock market can be connected through the profit cycle. Rising commodity prices will boost inflation, and inflation will increase the profit performance of industrial enterprises, especially upstream pro-cyclical enterprises, which will then be reflected in changes in the stock market; It is often difficult to understand that the bond market and the commodity market are rising together, because a key part of nominal interest rate pricing is inflation expectations, and the sustained rise of commodities usually leads to an increase in inflation expectations. This round of rising in the three cities is difficult to sustain. The contradiction between the rising commodities and the rising bond market shows that one of them has mispriced. Historically, after the rising of the three cities, the \"bond market correction + stocks and businesses continue to rise\" also confirms the existence of rising errors to a certain extent.</p><p>Who is \"lost\"? The logic of the downward trend in the 10-year Treasury Bond yield includes inflation expectations and funding, while the logic of the rise in commodities and stocks focuses on economic fundamentals. At present, the domestic economy is still recovering upward, industrial production remains strong, inventory destocking and rising demand are boosting commodity prices, and the profit performance brought about by inflation also provides support for the stock market. On the other hand, in the bond market, the \"illusion\" of funds superimposed on inflation concerns has subsided, which may become the main reason for the bond market's rise and mistakes. The current liquidity is only a short-term relief, and the pressure on cross-season and MLF maturity has just begun. The instability of funds and the slow decline in inflation make the possibility of a long-term decline in bond interest rates less likely. The rise in the three cities this time is likely to be \"lost\" in the bond market, and the yield of the 10-year Treasury Bond may be adjusted in the future</p><p>Bond market strategy. The current round of rising stocks, bonds, and commodities is unstable. There is a high probability that the bond market is mispriced and may face adjustments in the future. In the second half of the year, we will continue to maintain the logical judgment of \"downward pressure on economic growth → weakening of deleveraging target → accelerating local bond issuance, strengthening fiscal expenditure → easing credit → rising interest rate\".</p><p>text</p><p>Since the beginning of this week, the stock, bond and commodity markets have all risen, showing a situation of three bulls in stocks, bonds and businesses. Historically, commodities and the stock market can be connected through the profit cycle, and then both rise together. However, from the perspective of inflation expectations, the rise in commodities and the rise in the bond market are often difficult to sustain, and the contradiction between them shows that one of them has mispriced. In this round of rising in the three cities, the temporary recovery of the bond market is due to the \"illusion\" of funds and the recede of inflation concerns. Therefore, we believe that this rise in the bond market may be wrong.</p><p>Stock and bond dealers' three bulls reappear</p><p>Since the beginning of this week, the stock, bond and commodity markets have all risen, showing a situation of three bulls in stocks, bonds and businesses. The Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 1.17% this week, the South China Commodity Index has risen by 1.63% this week, and the 10-year Treasury Bond has fallen by 35 bp, from 3.120% to 3.085%, showing a situation of three bulls in stocks, bonds, and businesses.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a1df0cb43dca2ddf436556b11d82e62\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Low valuation and high growth sectors have driven A-shares to continue to rebound. On June 23, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets continued to rebound, with the three major indexes all rising. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.25% to 3566.22 points; The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.04% to 14843.83 points; The ChiNext Index rose 1.13% to 3318.95 points, rising for 4 consecutive trading days. In terms of turnover, the turnover of the two cities exceeded 1 trillion yuan for four consecutive trading days; Growth stocks continued to outperform the index, and technology, consumer and cyclical stocks were active. Judging from the logic of recent capital transactions, low prices, low valuations, and high growth sectors support the continued rebound of A shares. In the early stage of the third quarter, especially before and after the disclosure of the interim report results, there is still room for improvement in market activity, which is expected to drive the market to further stabilize and rebound.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13ea217cf8a5a4ccdb0dd9af7ce34fb2\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"259\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After several days of sharp decline in commodities, the black series and bifocus drove the commodity market to resume its upward trend. On June 23, the domestic futures market generally rose, with black series rising across the board, coke and coking coal rising by more than 5%, and iron ore rising by nearly 4%; Most base metals rose, with Shanghai tin rising more than 3%, Shanghai nickel and international copper rising more than 2%. The number of coal mines in the main production areas of Shanxi coking coal market that have suspended and restricted production has increased. Affected by the contraction of raw coal supply, some coal types are in short supply. On the downstream side, the supply of coking coal market is still tight, which affects the arrival of coking companies less than expected. It is difficult to purchase raw coal. The coking coal inventory of some coking companies has dropped to a low level, and there are plans to limit production. The sentiment of coal shortage in the market fermented, driving double coke to rise. Other metal products and energy and chemical products also followed suit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbd24f8e8e082742fa8907e22c0d6072\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"261\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After the tax payment day, the tight capital situation was suspended, and the spot bonds warmed up in the short term. After the tax payment day, inter-bank liquidity improved slightly, which boosted the sentiment of spot bonds, resulting in a general decline in yields in recent days. Overnight and 7-day interest rates fell but cross-month prices remained high. The yields of major inter-bank interest rate bonds generally declined, and short-and medium-term bonds performed better; The credit bond market is generally stable, and a few Internet celebrity bonds fluctuate significantly; Bond transactions in Tianjin were active and most of them rose. Treasury Bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range and closed slightly higher. The 10-year main contract rose 0.09%, the 5-year main contract rose 0.07%, and the 2-year main contract rose 0.06%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81d6d3cd4a4e05b5d3f19459247e6cd\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"225\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Stocks, bonds and commodities flying together in history</p><p>Looking back at history, we summarized seven stages in which stocks, bonds and commodities rose simultaneously. From the perspective of duration, the duration of the phenomenon that the three markets rise together tends to shorten; Judging from the specific performance of each market, although the trend is upward, the differentiation of the increase in each stage is obvious. For example, all three markets have experienced relatively large increases, and the specific stages are 2005.07.10-2006.05.18, 2008.10.26-2009.01.08; The stock and commodity markets rose significantly, and the bond market showed a slight increase. The specific stage was from 2019.01.01 to 2019.02.14; Or the bond market has increased significantly, while the stock and commodity markets have relatively weak gains. The specific stages are 2016.06.12-2016.08.14, 2021.04.26-2021.05.17.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a0d23b728757a6ca355deb66742408c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Sufficient liquidity is one of the main reasons for the simultaneous rise of stock, bond and commodity markets. (1) Generalized liquidity angle. In the three stages of 2005Q1-2006Q3, 2008Q1-2009Q3 and 2019Q1-2020Q1, the year-on-year difference between M2 and real GDP widened, indicating that the growth rate of money supply continues to exceed the demand for economic growth, and the abundance of broad liquidity promotes capital flows into stocks, bonds and commodities. (2) Mobility in a narrow sense. In the 2008Q4-2009Q2 stage, R007 and DR007 are both in the downward channel, and liquidity in the narrow sense remains loose. Although R007 and DR007 did not decline significantly in the two stages of 2016Q1-2016Q3 and 2021Q1, the overall level remained low. Abundant liquidity in a narrow sense boosted the rise of stocks, bonds, and commodities in three rounds during the same period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5aa67ba4961466c819649d0f41cc0af\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Commodities and the stock market can be connected through the profit cycle, but it is difficult for commodities and bond markets to continue to rise together. The first is the relationship between the commodity market and the stock market. Rising commodity prices will boost inflation, and inflation will increase the profit performance of industrial enterprises, especially upstream pro-cyclical enterprises, which will then be reflected in changes in the stock market. It is often difficult to understand that the bond market and the commodity market are rising together, because a key part of nominal interest rate pricing is inflation expectations, and the sustained rise of commodities usually leads to an increase in inflation expectations. Therefore, this round of rising in the three cities is difficult to sustain, and the contradiction between the rising commodities and the rising bond market shows that one of them has mispriced.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/259db375e31926996a15327a7e4312b3\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"580\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Judging from the results, after the three cities rose together, the bond market pulled back and the stock market and commodity market continued to rise more often, which also confirmed the existence of rising errors to a certain extent. From the analysis of the results, except for the bond market correction + stock market and commodity shocks after May 2006, and the decline of the three cities after August 2016, the rest of the stages were bond market correction + stock market and commodity rises.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/353deae0d790441e665ff789b93bf169\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"276\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Who is \"lost\"?</p><p>The logic of the downward trend in the 10-year Treasury Bond yield includes inflation expectations and funding, while the logic of the rise in commodities and stocks focuses on economic fundamentals. On the one hand, weakening inflation expectations, ample liquidity and slower issuance of government bonds will all lead to a decline in bond yields; On the other hand, good expectations for future economic development prospects and strong manufacturing demand will push commodities and stock markets up.</p><p>At present, the domestic economy is still recovering upward, and industrial production remains strong. In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 8.8% year-on-year, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 17.8%. Although it dropped slightly from April, the overall growth rate still maintained a relatively high level. In terms of prosperity, the manufacturing PMI recorded 51% in May (-0.1 pcts month-on-month), of which the PMI production sub-item recorded 52.7 (+0.5 pcts month-on-month). The manufacturing industry as a whole still showed high prosperity. On the one hand, the continued economic recovery provides support for commodity prices from the demand side, and on the other hand, it will also lead to an increase in investors' risk appetite, making them more inclined to allocate stock assets.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73464620cac302dbdb19943128791eb6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"222\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Inventory destocking and rising demand have boosted commodity prices, while profit performance brought about by inflation has also provided support for the stock market. In the short term, (1) the total global inventory of copper is still at a relatively low level; (2) Take the United States as an example. With the liberalization of work and travel restrictions for American residents, the demand for gasoline is increasing. At the same time, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories have been depleted, and crude oil prices are expected to remain supported in the short term. Taken together, the prices of some commodities are still supported in the short term. In terms of the stock market, corporate profits may continue to perform well in the second quarter due to inflation. From a medium-term perspective, the allocation value of growth stocks will gradually be reflected.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/803c2d5e25c9d3d9654f153f97c8dc50\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"207\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The \"illusion\" of funds superimposed on inflation concerns has subsided, which may become the main reason for the bond market's rise and mistakes. From the perspective of funds, although DR007 fell by 9bps from the previous day to 2.27% on June 22, overall the center of DR007 rose from less than 2% in May to around 2.1%. Considering that (1) the current excess reserve rate is in a position, it is difficult to smoothly survive the end of half a year; (2) The scale of subsequent MLF maturity gradually increases; (3) The subsequent supply pressure of local government bonds is greater, and the pace of local government bond issuance is accelerating; (4) There are many factors, such as tax payment, payment accuracy, assessment pressure at the end of half a year, etc., liquidity is only a short-term relief, and the pressure of cross-season and MLF maturity has just begun. From the perspective of inflation, although the PPI in May 2021 once again far exceeded expectations year-on-year, and the high growth rate of 9% basically determined the peak of inflation during the year, this round of inflation is likely to be the top of the arc, and there will be no sharp decline after the high point of PPI. In the third quarter, the PPI is still running at a high level year-on-year, and it may still be higher than 4% in the fourth quarter. There is insufficient motivation and space for active monetary policy easing. Therefore, the instability of funds and the slow downward trend of inflation make the possibility of a long-term decline in bond interest rates low. The high probability of the rise in the three cities this time is that the bond market is \"lost\", and the yield of the subsequent 10-year Treasury Bond may be adjusted.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c76e8ac0973214f22a9504a13449e1d3\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"223\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b852cade88b530f9dc0ae3f4b1f9f811\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Bond market strategy</p><p>The current round of rising stocks, bonds, and commodities is unstable. There is a high probability that the bond market is mispriced and may face adjustments in the future. Looking back at history, we find that there are not many stages when the three markets of stocks, bonds, and commodities have risen together, and the duration is short. From the current point of view, inventory destocking and increased demand will still drive up the prices of some commodities in the short term. Affected by inflation, the profits of companies in the second quarter cycle will continue to perform well, and the rising logic of the stock market and commodity market will be supported in the short term. On the other hand, in the bond market, due to factors such as the short-term loose funds, the increase of local bond supply in the future, and the increasing pressure of MLF maturity, the bond market will rise or be unsustainable. In the second half of the year, we will continue to maintain the logical judgment of \"downward pressure on economic growth → weakening of deleveraging target → accelerating local bond issuance, strengthening fiscal expenditure → wide credit → rising interest rate\".</p><p>MARKET REVIEW</p><p>Interest rate bonds</p><p>Capital market review</p><p>On June 23, 2021, the weighted interest rate of pledged repo between banks and deposits was mixed, with overnight, 7-day, 14-day, 21-day and 1-month changes of-13.02 bps,-8.84 bps, 5.82 bps, 9.30 bps and 42.24 bps respectively to 2.18%, 2.27%, 2.70%, 2.83% and 2.62%. Treasury Bond yields to maturity fell across the board, with 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year changes of-2.40 bps,-2.29 bps,-0.84 bp, and-0.24 bp to 2.50%, 2.79%, 2.95%, and 3.09% respectively. On June 23, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.25% to 3566.22, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.00% to 14843.83, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.13% to 3318.95.</p><p>The central bank announced that in order to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system, it launched a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 10 billion yuan through interest rate bidding on June 23. Today, the central bank launched a 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation in the open market. Today, the 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase expired, completely hedging the maturity amount.</p><p>Liquidity dynamic monitoring</p><p>We track the market liquidity situation and observe the \"investment and receipt\" of liquidity since the beginning of 2017. In terms of increment, we calculate the total investment amount based on the scale of central bank open market operations such as reverse repurchase, SLF and MLF, and treasury cash fixed deposits; In terms of reduction, based on the cumulative increase of 1,601.066 billion yuan in M0 compared with December 2016 in December 2020, the cumulative decrease of 811.716 billion yuan in foreign exchange holdings, and the cumulative increase of 986.866 billion yuan in fiscal deposits, we roughly estimate that through residents' cash withdrawals, the decrease of foreign holdings and the liquidity lost by tax revenue, and considering the maturity of open market operations, calculate the total daily liquidity reduction. At the same time, we monitor the maturity of open market operations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/405a8dfdef063bb0608d46b69a7ce64f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90cf74b242eae36a24f482fabdef4ae4\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Convertible bonds</p><p>Convertible Bond Market Review</p><p>In the convertible bond market on June 23, the CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 381.59 points, up 0.41% daily, the Convertible Bond Index closed at 1552.24 points, up 0.82% daily, and the Convertible Bond Plan Index closed at 1282.09 points, up 0.96% daily; The average convertible bond price is 128.31 yuan, and the average parity price is 106.34 yuan. There were 367 listed and traded convertible bonds. Except for the suspension of Zhongxin convertible bonds, 249 rose, 6 traded sideways, and 111 fell. Among them, Lanxiao Convertible Bonds (13.46%), Huazi Convertible Bonds (13.32%) and Sly Convertible Bonds (10.39%) led the gains, Wanshun Convertible Bonds (-8.55%), Zhongxing Convertible Bonds (-6.89%) and Jingda Convertible Bonds (-4.11%) led the decline. Of the 362 convertible bond underlying shares, 185 rose, 19 traded sideways, and 158 fell. among<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300490\">Huazi Technology</a>（20.03%）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300505\">Chuan Jinnuo</a>(20.02%) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300487\">Lanxiao Technology</a>(20.00%) led the gains,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300482\">Wondfo Bio</a>（-7.30%）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300016\">Hokuriku Pharmaceutical</a>(-6.26%) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300057\">Wanshun New Materials</a>(-5.39%) led the losses.</p><p>Convertible Bond Market Week Views</p><p>The upper revolving bond market saw a significant correction, recording a large weekly decline. The individual bond level fell more and rose less, market volatility and differentiation further intensified, and it was difficult to clearly grasp the hot spots and main lines.</p><p>In our recent report, we suggested that we should look for high prosperity underlying shares in the market and high flexibility of convertible bonds. Such targets have higher efficiency in the context of intensified market volatility. In order to cope with the differentiation and fluctuation of the market, it is necessary to make trade-offs to rebalance positions, and the focus is still on the growth direction. This trend is not a short-term style switch of the market, and at the same time, the target of the consumption direction is beginning to be laid out. We believe that there is no shortage of opportunities in the current market, but it is more difficult to grasp them than in the previous period.</p><p>The performance of relevant targets in the recent cyclical direction is also relatively backward. Although the probability of short-term related bonds rebounding in the context of high market volatility exists, with the peak of inflation, pro-cyclicality should no longer become the focus of subsequent allocation. We only recommend retaining a small number of coupons with sustained demand boom and strong supply-side constraints.</p><p>With the recovery of the global economy, the logic of epidemic exit transactions has been further strengthened. Although the epidemic is still disturbed and repeated, the direction of recovery of residents' disposable income is relatively clear. Under this trend, we focus on the sustainability of subsequent recovery on the consumer side. Our boom has increased the layout in the direction of consumption, and this part of the position can fill some of the cyclical positions that have fallen back.</p><p>From the perspective of performance growth, our weekly reports in the past few weeks have repeatedly focused on the high-end manufacturing sector from the perspective of cost superposition demand. The structural imbalance of the current global epidemic may further enhance the profitability elasticity of the manufacturing industry. The epidemic control effect of some overseas developing countries is much weaker than that of developed countries, which will impact the position of these economies in the global industrial chain division of labor. As a \"global factory\" China's manufacturing industry may usher in more transfer demand. The main logical direction is from the two perspectives of domestic substitution and technological upgrading, as well as the direction with a relatively high proportion of exports, focusing on military industry, semiconductors, auto parts, new energy, TMT, and pharmaceutical industry. However, the relevant sectors have already performed well before. At this stage, it may be necessary to further select and adjust the targets. Some low-priced targets can be added to diversify risks, or some beta targets can be fulfilled to retain alpha options.</p><p>Highly flexible portfolio suggestions focus on Dongcaizhuan 3, Jingda Convertible Bonds, Tongcheng Convertible Bonds, Xinwang Convertible Bonds, Aojia Convertible Bonds, Torch Convertible Bonds, Fu20 Convertible Bonds, Enjie Convertible Bonds, Biyin Convertible Bonds, Minuo Convertible Bonds.</p><p>It is recommended to pay attention to Suyin Convertible Bonds, Xingyu Convertible Bonds, Hailan Convertible Bonds, Shuanghuan Convertible Bonds, Wangneng Convertible Bonds, Slai Convertible Bonds (Jiuzhou Zhuan 2), Jiayuan (Shi Ying) Convertible Bonds, Yongguan Convertible Bonds, Hailiang Convertible Bonds and Kibing Convertible Bonds.</p><p>Risk Factors</p><p>Market liquidity fluctuated greatly, macroeconomic growth was not as good as expected, risk-free interest rates fluctuated greatly, and underlying shares's stock price fluctuated more than expected.</p><p>Stock Market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b14df39eae7b5848fa4320496632ef2\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Convertible bond market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92dc9af3be60ebe1ec5fb43412a579bb\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"120\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks, bonds, and commodities are all in the red. Who went wrong?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks, bonds, and commodities are all in the red. Who went wrong?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">财经自媒体</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 10:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>CORE POINT</p><p>Since the beginning of this week, the stock, bond and commodity markets have all risen, showing a situation of three bulls in stocks, bonds and businesses. Historically, commodities and the stock market can be connected through the profit cycle, and then both rise together. However, from the perspective of inflation expectations, the rise in commodities and the rise in the bond market are often difficult to sustain, and the contradiction between them shows that one of them has mispriced. In this round of rising in the three cities, the temporary recovery of the bond market is due to the \"illusion\" of funds and the recede of inflation concerns. Therefore, we believe that this rise in the bond market may be wrong.</p><p>Since the beginning of this week, the stock, bond and commodity markets have all risen, showing a situation of three bulls in stocks, bonds and businesses. In the stock market, low prices, low valuations, and high growth sectors support the continued rebound of A shares. In the early stage of the third quarter, especially before and after the disclosure of the interim report results, there is still room for improvement in market activity, which is expected to drive the market to further stabilize and rebound; In terms of the commodity market, affected by factors such as tight supply, inventory destocking, and production restriction policies, black series and double focus have driven the commodity market to resume its upward trend; In the bond market, after the tax payment day, inter-bank liquidity improved slightly, which boosted the sentiment of spot bonds, resulting in a general decline in yields in recent days. Overnight and 7-day interest rates fell but cross-month prices remained high.</p><p>Stocks, bonds and commodities in history have soared together. Looking back at history, we summarized seven stages in which stocks, bonds and commodities rose simultaneously. From the perspective of broad liquidity and narrow liquidity, abundant liquidity is one of the main reasons for the simultaneous rise of stock, bond and commodity markets. Specifically, looking at the relationship between the three cities, commodities and the stock market can be connected through the profit cycle. Rising commodity prices will boost inflation, and inflation will increase the profit performance of industrial enterprises, especially upstream pro-cyclical enterprises, which will then be reflected in changes in the stock market; It is often difficult to understand that the bond market and the commodity market are rising together, because a key part of nominal interest rate pricing is inflation expectations, and the sustained rise of commodities usually leads to an increase in inflation expectations. This round of rising in the three cities is difficult to sustain. The contradiction between the rising commodities and the rising bond market shows that one of them has mispriced. Historically, after the rising of the three cities, the \"bond market correction + stocks and businesses continue to rise\" also confirms the existence of rising errors to a certain extent.</p><p>Who is \"lost\"? The logic of the downward trend in the 10-year Treasury Bond yield includes inflation expectations and funding, while the logic of the rise in commodities and stocks focuses on economic fundamentals. At present, the domestic economy is still recovering upward, industrial production remains strong, inventory destocking and rising demand are boosting commodity prices, and the profit performance brought about by inflation also provides support for the stock market. On the other hand, in the bond market, the \"illusion\" of funds superimposed on inflation concerns has subsided, which may become the main reason for the bond market's rise and mistakes. The current liquidity is only a short-term relief, and the pressure on cross-season and MLF maturity has just begun. The instability of funds and the slow decline in inflation make the possibility of a long-term decline in bond interest rates less likely. The rise in the three cities this time is likely to be \"lost\" in the bond market, and the yield of the 10-year Treasury Bond may be adjusted in the future</p><p>Bond market strategy. The current round of rising stocks, bonds, and commodities is unstable. There is a high probability that the bond market is mispriced and may face adjustments in the future. In the second half of the year, we will continue to maintain the logical judgment of \"downward pressure on economic growth → weakening of deleveraging target → accelerating local bond issuance, strengthening fiscal expenditure → easing credit → rising interest rate\".</p><p>text</p><p>Since the beginning of this week, the stock, bond and commodity markets have all risen, showing a situation of three bulls in stocks, bonds and businesses. Historically, commodities and the stock market can be connected through the profit cycle, and then both rise together. However, from the perspective of inflation expectations, the rise in commodities and the rise in the bond market are often difficult to sustain, and the contradiction between them shows that one of them has mispriced. In this round of rising in the three cities, the temporary recovery of the bond market is due to the \"illusion\" of funds and the recede of inflation concerns. Therefore, we believe that this rise in the bond market may be wrong.</p><p>Stock and bond dealers' three bulls reappear</p><p>Since the beginning of this week, the stock, bond and commodity markets have all risen, showing a situation of three bulls in stocks, bonds and businesses. The Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 1.17% this week, the South China Commodity Index has risen by 1.63% this week, and the 10-year Treasury Bond has fallen by 35 bp, from 3.120% to 3.085%, showing a situation of three bulls in stocks, bonds, and businesses.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a1df0cb43dca2ddf436556b11d82e62\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Low valuation and high growth sectors have driven A-shares to continue to rebound. On June 23, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets continued to rebound, with the three major indexes all rising. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.25% to 3566.22 points; The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.04% to 14843.83 points; The ChiNext Index rose 1.13% to 3318.95 points, rising for 4 consecutive trading days. In terms of turnover, the turnover of the two cities exceeded 1 trillion yuan for four consecutive trading days; Growth stocks continued to outperform the index, and technology, consumer and cyclical stocks were active. Judging from the logic of recent capital transactions, low prices, low valuations, and high growth sectors support the continued rebound of A shares. In the early stage of the third quarter, especially before and after the disclosure of the interim report results, there is still room for improvement in market activity, which is expected to drive the market to further stabilize and rebound.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13ea217cf8a5a4ccdb0dd9af7ce34fb2\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"259\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After several days of sharp decline in commodities, the black series and bifocus drove the commodity market to resume its upward trend. On June 23, the domestic futures market generally rose, with black series rising across the board, coke and coking coal rising by more than 5%, and iron ore rising by nearly 4%; Most base metals rose, with Shanghai tin rising more than 3%, Shanghai nickel and international copper rising more than 2%. The number of coal mines in the main production areas of Shanxi coking coal market that have suspended and restricted production has increased. Affected by the contraction of raw coal supply, some coal types are in short supply. On the downstream side, the supply of coking coal market is still tight, which affects the arrival of coking companies less than expected. It is difficult to purchase raw coal. The coking coal inventory of some coking companies has dropped to a low level, and there are plans to limit production. The sentiment of coal shortage in the market fermented, driving double coke to rise. Other metal products and energy and chemical products also followed suit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbd24f8e8e082742fa8907e22c0d6072\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"261\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After the tax payment day, the tight capital situation was suspended, and the spot bonds warmed up in the short term. After the tax payment day, inter-bank liquidity improved slightly, which boosted the sentiment of spot bonds, resulting in a general decline in yields in recent days. Overnight and 7-day interest rates fell but cross-month prices remained high. The yields of major inter-bank interest rate bonds generally declined, and short-and medium-term bonds performed better; The credit bond market is generally stable, and a few Internet celebrity bonds fluctuate significantly; Bond transactions in Tianjin were active and most of them rose. Treasury Bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range and closed slightly higher. The 10-year main contract rose 0.09%, the 5-year main contract rose 0.07%, and the 2-year main contract rose 0.06%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81d6d3cd4a4e05b5d3f19459247e6cd\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"225\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Stocks, bonds and commodities flying together in history</p><p>Looking back at history, we summarized seven stages in which stocks, bonds and commodities rose simultaneously. From the perspective of duration, the duration of the phenomenon that the three markets rise together tends to shorten; Judging from the specific performance of each market, although the trend is upward, the differentiation of the increase in each stage is obvious. For example, all three markets have experienced relatively large increases, and the specific stages are 2005.07.10-2006.05.18, 2008.10.26-2009.01.08; The stock and commodity markets rose significantly, and the bond market showed a slight increase. The specific stage was from 2019.01.01 to 2019.02.14; Or the bond market has increased significantly, while the stock and commodity markets have relatively weak gains. The specific stages are 2016.06.12-2016.08.14, 2021.04.26-2021.05.17.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a0d23b728757a6ca355deb66742408c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Sufficient liquidity is one of the main reasons for the simultaneous rise of stock, bond and commodity markets. (1) Generalized liquidity angle. In the three stages of 2005Q1-2006Q3, 2008Q1-2009Q3 and 2019Q1-2020Q1, the year-on-year difference between M2 and real GDP widened, indicating that the growth rate of money supply continues to exceed the demand for economic growth, and the abundance of broad liquidity promotes capital flows into stocks, bonds and commodities. (2) Mobility in a narrow sense. In the 2008Q4-2009Q2 stage, R007 and DR007 are both in the downward channel, and liquidity in the narrow sense remains loose. Although R007 and DR007 did not decline significantly in the two stages of 2016Q1-2016Q3 and 2021Q1, the overall level remained low. Abundant liquidity in a narrow sense boosted the rise of stocks, bonds, and commodities in three rounds during the same period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5aa67ba4961466c819649d0f41cc0af\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Commodities and the stock market can be connected through the profit cycle, but it is difficult for commodities and bond markets to continue to rise together. The first is the relationship between the commodity market and the stock market. Rising commodity prices will boost inflation, and inflation will increase the profit performance of industrial enterprises, especially upstream pro-cyclical enterprises, which will then be reflected in changes in the stock market. It is often difficult to understand that the bond market and the commodity market are rising together, because a key part of nominal interest rate pricing is inflation expectations, and the sustained rise of commodities usually leads to an increase in inflation expectations. Therefore, this round of rising in the three cities is difficult to sustain, and the contradiction between the rising commodities and the rising bond market shows that one of them has mispriced.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/259db375e31926996a15327a7e4312b3\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"580\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Judging from the results, after the three cities rose together, the bond market pulled back and the stock market and commodity market continued to rise more often, which also confirmed the existence of rising errors to a certain extent. From the analysis of the results, except for the bond market correction + stock market and commodity shocks after May 2006, and the decline of the three cities after August 2016, the rest of the stages were bond market correction + stock market and commodity rises.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/353deae0d790441e665ff789b93bf169\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"276\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Who is \"lost\"?</p><p>The logic of the downward trend in the 10-year Treasury Bond yield includes inflation expectations and funding, while the logic of the rise in commodities and stocks focuses on economic fundamentals. On the one hand, weakening inflation expectations, ample liquidity and slower issuance of government bonds will all lead to a decline in bond yields; On the other hand, good expectations for future economic development prospects and strong manufacturing demand will push commodities and stock markets up.</p><p>At present, the domestic economy is still recovering upward, and industrial production remains strong. In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 8.8% year-on-year, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 17.8%. Although it dropped slightly from April, the overall growth rate still maintained a relatively high level. In terms of prosperity, the manufacturing PMI recorded 51% in May (-0.1 pcts month-on-month), of which the PMI production sub-item recorded 52.7 (+0.5 pcts month-on-month). The manufacturing industry as a whole still showed high prosperity. On the one hand, the continued economic recovery provides support for commodity prices from the demand side, and on the other hand, it will also lead to an increase in investors' risk appetite, making them more inclined to allocate stock assets.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73464620cac302dbdb19943128791eb6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"222\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Inventory destocking and rising demand have boosted commodity prices, while profit performance brought about by inflation has also provided support for the stock market. In the short term, (1) the total global inventory of copper is still at a relatively low level; (2) Take the United States as an example. With the liberalization of work and travel restrictions for American residents, the demand for gasoline is increasing. At the same time, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories have been depleted, and crude oil prices are expected to remain supported in the short term. Taken together, the prices of some commodities are still supported in the short term. In terms of the stock market, corporate profits may continue to perform well in the second quarter due to inflation. From a medium-term perspective, the allocation value of growth stocks will gradually be reflected.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/803c2d5e25c9d3d9654f153f97c8dc50\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"207\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The \"illusion\" of funds superimposed on inflation concerns has subsided, which may become the main reason for the bond market's rise and mistakes. From the perspective of funds, although DR007 fell by 9bps from the previous day to 2.27% on June 22, overall the center of DR007 rose from less than 2% in May to around 2.1%. Considering that (1) the current excess reserve rate is in a position, it is difficult to smoothly survive the end of half a year; (2) The scale of subsequent MLF maturity gradually increases; (3) The subsequent supply pressure of local government bonds is greater, and the pace of local government bond issuance is accelerating; (4) There are many factors, such as tax payment, payment accuracy, assessment pressure at the end of half a year, etc., liquidity is only a short-term relief, and the pressure of cross-season and MLF maturity has just begun. From the perspective of inflation, although the PPI in May 2021 once again far exceeded expectations year-on-year, and the high growth rate of 9% basically determined the peak of inflation during the year, this round of inflation is likely to be the top of the arc, and there will be no sharp decline after the high point of PPI. In the third quarter, the PPI is still running at a high level year-on-year, and it may still be higher than 4% in the fourth quarter. There is insufficient motivation and space for active monetary policy easing. Therefore, the instability of funds and the slow downward trend of inflation make the possibility of a long-term decline in bond interest rates low. The high probability of the rise in the three cities this time is that the bond market is \"lost\", and the yield of the subsequent 10-year Treasury Bond may be adjusted.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c76e8ac0973214f22a9504a13449e1d3\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"223\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b852cade88b530f9dc0ae3f4b1f9f811\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Bond market strategy</p><p>The current round of rising stocks, bonds, and commodities is unstable. There is a high probability that the bond market is mispriced and may face adjustments in the future. Looking back at history, we find that there are not many stages when the three markets of stocks, bonds, and commodities have risen together, and the duration is short. From the current point of view, inventory destocking and increased demand will still drive up the prices of some commodities in the short term. Affected by inflation, the profits of companies in the second quarter cycle will continue to perform well, and the rising logic of the stock market and commodity market will be supported in the short term. On the other hand, in the bond market, due to factors such as the short-term loose funds, the increase of local bond supply in the future, and the increasing pressure of MLF maturity, the bond market will rise or be unsustainable. In the second half of the year, we will continue to maintain the logical judgment of \"downward pressure on economic growth → weakening of deleveraging target → accelerating local bond issuance, strengthening fiscal expenditure → wide credit → rising interest rate\".</p><p>MARKET REVIEW</p><p>Interest rate bonds</p><p>Capital market review</p><p>On June 23, 2021, the weighted interest rate of pledged repo between banks and deposits was mixed, with overnight, 7-day, 14-day, 21-day and 1-month changes of-13.02 bps,-8.84 bps, 5.82 bps, 9.30 bps and 42.24 bps respectively to 2.18%, 2.27%, 2.70%, 2.83% and 2.62%. Treasury Bond yields to maturity fell across the board, with 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year changes of-2.40 bps,-2.29 bps,-0.84 bp, and-0.24 bp to 2.50%, 2.79%, 2.95%, and 3.09% respectively. On June 23, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.25% to 3566.22, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.00% to 14843.83, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.13% to 3318.95.</p><p>The central bank announced that in order to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system, it launched a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 10 billion yuan through interest rate bidding on June 23. Today, the central bank launched a 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation in the open market. Today, the 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase expired, completely hedging the maturity amount.</p><p>Liquidity dynamic monitoring</p><p>We track the market liquidity situation and observe the \"investment and receipt\" of liquidity since the beginning of 2017. In terms of increment, we calculate the total investment amount based on the scale of central bank open market operations such as reverse repurchase, SLF and MLF, and treasury cash fixed deposits; In terms of reduction, based on the cumulative increase of 1,601.066 billion yuan in M0 compared with December 2016 in December 2020, the cumulative decrease of 811.716 billion yuan in foreign exchange holdings, and the cumulative increase of 986.866 billion yuan in fiscal deposits, we roughly estimate that through residents' cash withdrawals, the decrease of foreign holdings and the liquidity lost by tax revenue, and considering the maturity of open market operations, calculate the total daily liquidity reduction. At the same time, we monitor the maturity of open market operations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/405a8dfdef063bb0608d46b69a7ce64f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90cf74b242eae36a24f482fabdef4ae4\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Convertible bonds</p><p>Convertible Bond Market Review</p><p>In the convertible bond market on June 23, the CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 381.59 points, up 0.41% daily, the Convertible Bond Index closed at 1552.24 points, up 0.82% daily, and the Convertible Bond Plan Index closed at 1282.09 points, up 0.96% daily; The average convertible bond price is 128.31 yuan, and the average parity price is 106.34 yuan. There were 367 listed and traded convertible bonds. Except for the suspension of Zhongxin convertible bonds, 249 rose, 6 traded sideways, and 111 fell. Among them, Lanxiao Convertible Bonds (13.46%), Huazi Convertible Bonds (13.32%) and Sly Convertible Bonds (10.39%) led the gains, Wanshun Convertible Bonds (-8.55%), Zhongxing Convertible Bonds (-6.89%) and Jingda Convertible Bonds (-4.11%) led the decline. Of the 362 convertible bond underlying shares, 185 rose, 19 traded sideways, and 158 fell. among<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300490\">Huazi Technology</a>（20.03%）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300505\">Chuan Jinnuo</a>(20.02%) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300487\">Lanxiao Technology</a>(20.00%) led the gains,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300482\">Wondfo Bio</a>（-7.30%）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300016\">Hokuriku Pharmaceutical</a>(-6.26%) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300057\">Wanshun New Materials</a>(-5.39%) led the losses.</p><p>Convertible Bond Market Week Views</p><p>The upper revolving bond market saw a significant correction, recording a large weekly decline. The individual bond level fell more and rose less, market volatility and differentiation further intensified, and it was difficult to clearly grasp the hot spots and main lines.</p><p>In our recent report, we suggested that we should look for high prosperity underlying shares in the market and high flexibility of convertible bonds. Such targets have higher efficiency in the context of intensified market volatility. In order to cope with the differentiation and fluctuation of the market, it is necessary to make trade-offs to rebalance positions, and the focus is still on the growth direction. This trend is not a short-term style switch of the market, and at the same time, the target of the consumption direction is beginning to be laid out. We believe that there is no shortage of opportunities in the current market, but it is more difficult to grasp them than in the previous period.</p><p>The performance of relevant targets in the recent cyclical direction is also relatively backward. Although the probability of short-term related bonds rebounding in the context of high market volatility exists, with the peak of inflation, pro-cyclicality should no longer become the focus of subsequent allocation. We only recommend retaining a small number of coupons with sustained demand boom and strong supply-side constraints.</p><p>With the recovery of the global economy, the logic of epidemic exit transactions has been further strengthened. Although the epidemic is still disturbed and repeated, the direction of recovery of residents' disposable income is relatively clear. Under this trend, we focus on the sustainability of subsequent recovery on the consumer side. Our boom has increased the layout in the direction of consumption, and this part of the position can fill some of the cyclical positions that have fallen back.</p><p>From the perspective of performance growth, our weekly reports in the past few weeks have repeatedly focused on the high-end manufacturing sector from the perspective of cost superposition demand. The structural imbalance of the current global epidemic may further enhance the profitability elasticity of the manufacturing industry. The epidemic control effect of some overseas developing countries is much weaker than that of developed countries, which will impact the position of these economies in the global industrial chain division of labor. As a \"global factory\" China's manufacturing industry may usher in more transfer demand. The main logical direction is from the two perspectives of domestic substitution and technological upgrading, as well as the direction with a relatively high proportion of exports, focusing on military industry, semiconductors, auto parts, new energy, TMT, and pharmaceutical industry. However, the relevant sectors have already performed well before. At this stage, it may be necessary to further select and adjust the targets. Some low-priced targets can be added to diversify risks, or some beta targets can be fulfilled to retain alpha options.</p><p>Highly flexible portfolio suggestions focus on Dongcaizhuan 3, Jingda Convertible Bonds, Tongcheng Convertible Bonds, Xinwang Convertible Bonds, Aojia Convertible Bonds, Torch Convertible Bonds, Fu20 Convertible Bonds, Enjie Convertible Bonds, Biyin Convertible Bonds, Minuo Convertible Bonds.</p><p>It is recommended to pay attention to Suyin Convertible Bonds, Xingyu Convertible Bonds, Hailan Convertible Bonds, Shuanghuan Convertible Bonds, Wangneng Convertible Bonds, Slai Convertible Bonds (Jiuzhou Zhuan 2), Jiayuan (Shi Ying) Convertible Bonds, Yongguan Convertible Bonds, Hailiang Convertible Bonds and Kibing Convertible Bonds.</p><p>Risk Factors</p><p>Market liquidity fluctuated greatly, macroeconomic growth was not as good as expected, risk-free interest rates fluctuated greatly, and underlying shares's stock price fluctuated more than expected.</p><p>Stock Market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b14df39eae7b5848fa4320496632ef2\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Convertible bond market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92dc9af3be60ebe1ec5fb43412a579bb\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"120\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/norm_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/cyxw/2021-06-24/doc-ikqcfnca2899001.shtml\">财经自媒体</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15e20574f8fb568333181d61bb200086","relate_stocks":{"03141":"华夏亚投债","09141":"华夏亚投债-U"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/norm_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/cyxw/2021-06-24/doc-ikqcfnca2899001.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145901125","content_text":"核心观点\n本周以来，股票、债券和大宗商品市场均上涨，呈现出股、债、商三牛的局面。历史上看，大宗商品与股市可通过盈利周期相连通，进而出现二者齐升。但从通胀预期角度来看，大宗商品上涨和债市上涨往往难以持续，其间的矛盾说明其中一方存在错误定价。本轮三市齐涨中，债市暂时回暖是由于资金面“幻觉”叠加通胀担忧消退，因此我们认为此次或是债市上涨出错。\n本周以来，股票、债券和大宗商品市场均上涨，呈现出股、债、商三牛的局面。股票市场方面，低价、低估值、高增长板块支撑A股持续反弹。三季度前期，特别是在中报业绩披露前后，市场的活跃度仍有提升空间，有望带动市场进一步企稳反弹；商品市场方面，受供应紧张、库存去化以及限产政策等因素影响，黑色系，双焦带动商品市场恢复涨势；债券市场方面，缴税日过后，银行间流动性稍有改善，从而提振了现券情绪，造成了近日的收益率普遍下行，隔夜和7天利率回落但跨月价格仍高。\n历史上的股债与商品齐飞。回顾历史，我们总结出7个股票、债券和大宗商品同时上涨的阶段。从广义流动性和狭义流动性角度来看，流动性充裕是推动股、债、大宗商品市场同时上涨的主要原因之一。具体来看三市的关系，大宗商品与股市可通过盈利周期相连通。大宗商品的价格上涨会助推通胀，而通胀会拉高工业企业尤其是上游顺周期企业的盈利表现，进而反映到股市变化；而债市与大宗商品市场齐涨往往难以理解，因为名义利率定价的其中一个关键部分就是通胀预期，而大宗商品的持续性上涨通常会带动通胀预期的上升。此轮三市齐涨难以持续，大宗商品上涨和债市上涨之间的矛盾说明其中一方存在错误定价，历史上三市上涨后“债市回调+股、商继续上涨”也在一定程度上印证了上涨错误的存在。\n究竟是谁“迷路”了？10年期国债收益率下行的逻辑包括通胀预期和资金面，而大宗商品和股票上涨的逻辑则集中于经济基本面。当前国内经济仍然向上修复，工业生产保持强势，库存去化和需求提升助推大宗商品价格，而通胀带来的盈利表现同样为股市提供支撑。反观债券市场，资金面“幻觉”叠加通胀担忧消退，或成为债市上涨出错的主要原因。当前流动性只是短期缓解，跨季和MLF到期压力才刚开始，资金面的不稳定叠加通胀下行缓慢使得债券利率长期下降的可能性较低。此次三市齐涨大概率是债市“迷路”，后续10年期国债收益率或出现调整\n债市策略。本轮股、债、商品三市齐涨局面并不稳定，大概率是债市错误定价，后续或面临调整。下半年我们将继续维持“经济增速下行压力显现→去杠杆目标弱化→地方债发行加速、财政支出发力→宽信用→利率上行”的逻辑判断。\n正文\n本周以来，股票、债券和大宗商品市场均上涨，呈现出股、债、商三牛的局面。历史上看，大宗商品与股市可通过盈利周期相连通，进而出现二者齐升。但从通胀预期角度来看，大宗商品上涨和债市上涨往往难以持续，其间的矛盾说明其中一方存在错误定价。本轮三市齐涨中，债市暂时回暖是由于资金面“幻觉”叠加通胀担忧消退，因此我们认为此次或是债市上涨出错。\n股债商三牛再现\n本周以来，股票、债券和大宗商品市场均上涨，呈现出股、债、商三牛的局面。上证综指本周以来上涨1.17%，南华商品指数本周以来上涨1.63%，10年期国债下降35个bp，从3.120%下降至3.085%，呈现出股、债、商三牛的局面。\n\n低估值、高增长板块带动A股持续反弹。6月23日，沪深两市延续反弹，三大指数齐涨，上证指数涨0.25%，报3566.22点；深证成指涨1.04%，报14843.83点；创业板指涨1.13%，报3318.95点，连涨4个交易日。从成交额来看，两市成交额连续四个交易日突破1万亿元；成长股继续跑赢指数，科技、消费、周期股活跃。从近期资金交易逻辑看，低价、低估值、高增长板块支撑A股持续反弹。三季度前期，特别是在中报业绩披露前后，市场的活跃度仍有提升空间，有望带动市场进一步企稳反弹。\n\n商品在持续多日大跌之后，黑色系，双焦带动商品市场恢复涨势。6月23日，国内期市普遍上涨，黑色系全线上涨，焦炭、焦煤涨逾5%，铁矿石涨近4%；基本金属多数上涨，沪锡涨逾3%，沪镍、国际铜涨逾2%。山西炼焦煤市场主产区停限产煤矿数量增多，受原煤供应收缩影响，部分煤种供不应求。下游方面，焦煤市场供应仍呈紧张局面，影响焦企到货情况不及预期，采购原料煤困难显现，部分焦企焦煤库存已降至低位，有限产计划。市场缺煤情绪发酵，带动双焦上涨。其他金属产品、能化产品也跟随上涨。\n\n缴税日过后，资金面紧势暂缓，现券短期走暖。缴税日过后，银行间流动性稍有改善，从而提振了现券情绪，造成了近日的收益率普遍下行，隔夜和7天利率回落但跨月价格仍高，银行间主要利率债收益率普遍下行，中短券表现更好；信用债行情整体稳定，少数网红债大幅波动；天津地区债券成交活跃多数上涨。国债期货窄幅震荡小幅收涨，10年期主力合约涨0.09%，5年期主力合约涨0.07%，2年期主力合约涨0.06%。\n\n历史上的股债与商品齐飞\n回顾历史，我们总结出7个股票、债券和大宗商品同时上涨的阶段。从持续时间来看，三个市场一同上涨现象的持续时间趋于缩短；从各市场具体的表现来看，虽然趋势为上涨，但每一阶段上涨幅度的分化明显。例如三个市场均出现较大幅度的上涨，具体阶段为2005.07.10-2006.05.18、2008.10.26-2009.01.08；股票和商品市场涨幅显著，债券市场呈现小幅上涨，具体阶段为2019.01.01-2019.02.14；亦或是债券市场涨幅明显，而股票和商品市场则涨势相对较弱，具体阶段为2016.06.12-2016.08.14，2021.04.26-2021.05.17。\n\n流动性充裕是推动股、债、大宗商品市场同时上涨的主要原因之一。（1）广义流动性角度。在2005Q1-2006Q3、2008Q1-2009Q3以及2019Q1-2020Q1这三个阶段，M2同比与实际GDP同比之差走阔，表明货币供应增速持续超过经济增长的需求，广义流动性的充裕推动资金流入股、债、商品三市；（2）狭义流动性。2008Q4-2009Q2阶段R007和DR007均处于下行通道，狭义流动性保持宽松。2016Q1-2016Q3和2021Q1两阶段虽然R007和DR007并未出现明显下降，但整体维持低位。狭义流动性的充裕助推同期三轮股、债、商品齐涨。\n\n大宗商品与股市可通过盈利周期相连通，而大宗商品和债市难以持续出现齐涨局面。首先是商品市场与股票市场的关系，大宗商品的价格上涨会助推通胀，而通胀会拉高工业企业尤其是上游顺周期企业的盈利表现，进而反映到股市变化。而债市与大宗商品市场齐涨往往难以理解，因为名义利率定价的其中一个关键部分就是通胀预期，而大宗商品的持续性上涨通常会带动通胀预期的上升。因此，此轮三市齐涨难以持续，大宗商品上涨和债市上涨之间的矛盾说明其中一方存在错误定价。\n\n从结果看，三市齐涨之后，债市回调同时股市和商品市场继续上涨的情况更多，也在一定程度上印证了上涨错误的存在。从结果来分析，除了2006年5月后出现债市回调+股市、商品震荡，以及2016年8月后三市齐跌的情况，其余阶段均为债市回调+股市、商品齐涨。\n\n究竟是谁“迷路”了？\n10年期国债收益率下行的逻辑包括通胀预期和资金面，而大宗商品和股票上涨的逻辑则集中于经济基本面。一方面，通胀预期的减弱、流动性宽裕以及政府债券发行较慢均会导致债券收益率下行；另一方面，对于未来经济发展前景的良好预期，制造业需求的强劲等则会推动大宗商品和股市上涨。\n当前国内经济仍然向上修复，工业生产保持强势。5月规模以上工业增加值同比增长8.8%，累计同比增长17.8%，虽较4月有小幅回落，但整体仍然保持在较高增速水平。景气度方面，5月制造业PMI录得51%（环比-0.1pcts），其中PMI生产分项录得52.7（环比+0.5pcts），制造业整体仍然呈现高景气度。经济修复的持续一方面从需求端为大宗商品价格提供支撑，另一方面也会导致投资者的风险偏好有所提升，从而更加偏好于配置股票资产。\n\n库存去化和需求提升助推大宗商品价格，而通胀带来的盈利表现同样为股市提供支撑。短期来看，（1）铜的全球总库存仍然处于相对较低位置；（2）以美国为例，随着美国居民工作、旅游限制的放开，汽油的需求量在不断增加。同时美国商业原油库存量去化，预计原油价格短期内仍有支撑。综合来看，部分大宗商品的价格在短期内仍然得到支撑。股市方面，二季度企业盈利或因通胀而延续良好表现，中期视角来看成长股配置价值将逐步体现。\n\n资金面“幻觉”叠加通胀担忧消退，或成为债市上涨出错的主要原因。从资金面来看，虽然6月22日DR007较前一日下降9bps至2.27%，但整体来看DR007的中枢从5月的2%以下抬升到2.1%附近。考虑到（1）当前超储率位于地位，平稳度过半年末难度较大；（2）后续MLF到期规模逐渐增加；（3）后续地方债供给压力较大，地方债发行节奏加快；（4）缴税走款、缴准、半年末考核压力等多个因素，流动性只是短期缓解，跨季和MLF到期压力才刚开始。从通胀来看，虽然2021年5月PPI同比再次远超预期，9%的高增速也基本确定了年内通胀顶点，但本轮通胀大概率是圆弧顶，PPI高点过后不会出现大幅下滑，三季度PPI同比仍然处于高位运行状态，四季度或仍将高于4%。货币政策主动宽松的动力和空间不足。因此，资金面的不稳定和通胀下行的缓慢使得债券利率长期下降的可能性较低，此次三市齐涨大概率是债市“迷路”，后续10年期国债收益率或出现调整。\n\n债市策略\n本轮股、债、商品三市齐涨局面并不稳定，大概率是债市错误定价，后续或面临调整。回顾历史，我们发现股、债、商品三市齐涨的阶段不多，且持续时间较短。当前时点来看，库存去化和需求提升短期内仍将拉动部分大宗商品价格上涨，受通胀影响二季度周期企业的盈利仍能延续良好表现，股市和大宗商品市场上涨逻辑短期得以支撑。反观债市，由于资金面宽松的短期性以及未来地方债供给增加、MLF到期压力加大等因素，债市上涨或不可持续，下半年我们将继续维持“经济增速下行压力显现→去杠杆目标弱化→地方债发行加速、财政支出发力→宽信用→利率上行”的逻辑判断。\n市场回顾\n利率债\n资金面市场回顾\n2021年6月23日，银存间质押式回购加权利率涨跌互现，隔夜、7天、14天、21天和1个月分别变动了-13.02bps、-8.84bps、5.82bps、9.30bps和42.24bps至2.18%、2.27%、2.70%、2.83%和2.62%。国债到期收益率全面下行，1年、3年、5年、10年分别变动-2.40bps、-2.29bps、-0.84bp、-0.24bp至2.50%、2.79%、2.95%、3.09%。6月23日上证综指上涨0.25%至3566.22，深证成指上涨1.00%至14843.83，创业板指上涨1.13%至3318.95。\n央行公告称，为维护银行体系流动性合理充裕，6月23日以利率招标方式开展了100亿元7天期逆回购操作。今日央行公开市场开展100亿元逆回购操作，今日100亿元逆回购到期，完全对冲到期量。\n流动性动态监测\n我们对市场流动性情况进行跟踪，观测2017年开年来至今流动性的“投与收”。增量方面，我们根据逆回购、SLF、MLF等央行公开市场操作、国库现金定存等规模计算总投放量；减量方面，我们根据2020年12月对比2016年12月M0累计增加16010.66亿元，外汇占款累计下降8117.16亿元、财政存款累计增加9868.66亿元，粗略估计通过居民取现、外占下降和税收流失的流动性，并考虑公开市场操作到期情况，计算每日流动性减少总量。同时，我们对公开市场操作到期情况进行监控。\n\n可转债\n可转债市场回顾\n6月23日转债市场，中证转债指数收于381.59点，日上涨0.41%，可转债指数收于1552.24点，日上涨0.82%，可转债预案指数收于1282.09点，日上涨0.96%；平均转债价格128.31元，平均平价为106.34元。367支上市交易可转债，除众信转债停牌，249支上涨，6支横盘，111支下跌。其中蓝晓转债（13.46%）、华自转债（13.32%）和斯莱转债（10.39%）领涨，万顺转债（-8.55%）、众兴转债（-6.89%）和精达转债（-4.11%）领跌。362支可转债正股，185支上涨，19支横盘，158支下跌。其中华自科技（20.03%）、川金诺（20.02%）和蓝晓科技（20.00%）领涨，万孚生物（-7.30%）、北陆药业（-6.26%）和万顺新材（-5.39%）领跌。\n可转债市场周观点\n上周转债市场明显回调，录得了较大的周度跌幅。个券层面跌多涨少，市场波动和分化进一步加剧，且热点和主线难以明确把握。\n我们在近期的报告中提示寻找市场中的高景气正股叠加转债高弹性的标的，此类标的在市场波动加剧的背景下具有更高的效率。为了应对市场的分化与波动，需要有所取舍进行仓位的再平衡，重点仍旧聚焦在成长方向，这一趋势并非是市场短暂的风格切换，同时开始布局消费方向的标的。我们认为当前的市场并不缺乏机会，但把握难度较前期有所增加。\n近期周期方向的相关标的表现也相对落后，市场在高波动的背景下短期相关个券出现反弹的概率虽然存在，但是随着通胀的见顶顺周期已经不应再成为后续的配置重点。我们仅推荐保留少部分需求景气持续，供给端约束较强的个券。\n随着全球经济的修复，疫情退出交易逻辑进一步强化，虽然疫情仍有扰动和反复，但是居民可支配收入的修复方向较为明确，这一趋势下我们重点关注后续消费端的修复持续性。我们景气已经增加了在消费方向的布局力度，这一部分仓位可以填补部分回落的周期仓位。\n从业绩成长性的角度出发，我们过去数周周报反复从成本叠加需求的角度关注到高端制造业板块。当下全球疫情的结构性不均衡可能会进一步提升制造业的盈利弹性，海外部分发展中国家的疫情控制效果远弱于发达国家，会冲击这些经济体在全球产业链分工中的地位，而作为“全球工厂”的中国制造业可能会迎来更多的转移需求，主要逻辑方向从国产替代与技术升级两大角度去考察，以及出口占比较高的方向，重点关注军工、半导体、汽车零部件、新能源、TMT、医药工业等板块。但之前相关板块已经有着不俗的表现，这一阶段可能需要对标的进一步精选和调整，可以增配部分低价标的分散风险，或者兑现部分beta标的保留alpha的选择。\n高弹性组合建议重点关注东财转3、精达转债、彤程转债、欣旺转债、奥佳转债、火炬转债、福20转债、恩捷转债、比音转债、美诺转债。\n稳健弹性组合建议关注苏银转债、星宇转债、海澜转债、双环转债、旺能转债、斯莱转债（九洲转2）、嘉元（石英）转债、永冠转债、海亮转债、旗滨转债。\n风险因素\n市场流动性大幅波动，宏观经济增速不如预期，无风险利率大幅波动，正股股价超预期波动。\n股票市场\n\n转债市场","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09141":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"03141":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1378,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128327100,"gmtCreate":1624502784600,"gmtModify":1703838582914,"author":{"id":"3581983097481247","authorId":"3581983097481247","name":"无欲2057","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e1909dfac2a022786e0d074699d2f2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983097481247","authorIdStr":"3581983097481247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/128327100","repostId":"2145011760","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2145011760","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624501366,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2145011760?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-24 10:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Daily Youxian plans to end its IPO early and is expected to be listed on June 25","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145011760","media":"新浪科技综合","summary":"6月24日消息，据接近IPO的市场人士消息称，自递交红鲱鱼招股书以来，每日优鲜认购火爆，已获得超额认购， 拟提前结束簿记，预计提前至美东时间6月25日正式上市。\n6月22日，每日优鲜更新招股书，预计美","content":"<p>According to news on June 24, according to market sources close to the IPO, since the submission of the Red Herring prospectus,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily excellent fresh</a>The subscription is hot, and it has been oversubscribed. It is planned to end the bookkeeping early, and it is expected to be officially listed on June 25, Eastern Time.</p><p>On June 22, Youxian updated its prospectus every day. It is estimated that the pricing range of US stock IPOs will be 13-16 US dollars/ADS, and 21 million ADSs are expected to be issued. Existing shareholders CICC,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>, U.S. long-term fund Davis and others will buy up to $90 million worth of ADSs.</p><p>According to the data in the prospectus, in 2018, the net revenue of Daily Youxian was about 3.5467 billion yuan, which increased to 6.0014 billion yuan in 2019 and reached 6.1304 billion yuan in 2020. For the three months ended March 31, 2020, Daily Youxian's net revenue was 1.6898 billion yuan, and for the three months ended March 31, 2021, the net revenue was 1.5302 billion yuan. GMV increased from 4.7259 billion yuan in 2018 to 7.6147 billion yuan in 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of 26.9%. The data shows that the average customer unit price of real-time retail in the daily Youxian front warehouse is 94.6 yuan.</p><p>Daily Youxian pioneered the front-end warehouse model in May 2015. At present, it has opened 631 front-end warehouses in 16 first-and second-tier cities across the country, providing consumers with over 4,300 fast-delivery products and an average service of 39 minutes. At present, it has more than 31 million cumulative trading users, and its GMV in 2020 is 7.6 billion yuan. In the second half of 2020, Daily Youxian launched a smart vegetable market business, and plans to promote the standardization of vegetable markets and upgrade to small fresh community shopping malls. As of May 31, 2021, it has signed operation agreements with 54 vegetable markets in 14 cities, and started operations in 33 vegetable markets in 10 cities.</p><p>In addition, the data in the prospectus shows that the average customer unit price of 94.6 yuan per day is the highest in the industry, and the performance expense ratio has continued to drop from 34.9% in 2018 to 25.7% in 2020. Higher than the industry average.</p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Daily Youxian plans to end its IPO early and is expected to be listed on June 25</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDaily Youxian plans to end its IPO early and is expected to be listed on June 25\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪科技综合</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 10:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>According to news on June 24, according to market sources close to the IPO, since the submission of the Red Herring prospectus,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily excellent fresh</a>The subscription is hot, and it has been oversubscribed. It is planned to end the bookkeeping early, and it is expected to be officially listed on June 25, Eastern Time.</p><p>On June 22, Youxian updated its prospectus every day. It is estimated that the pricing range of US stock IPOs will be 13-16 US dollars/ADS, and 21 million ADSs are expected to be issued. Existing shareholders CICC,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>, U.S. long-term fund Davis and others will buy up to $90 million worth of ADSs.</p><p>According to the data in the prospectus, in 2018, the net revenue of Daily Youxian was about 3.5467 billion yuan, which increased to 6.0014 billion yuan in 2019 and reached 6.1304 billion yuan in 2020. For the three months ended March 31, 2020, Daily Youxian's net revenue was 1.6898 billion yuan, and for the three months ended March 31, 2021, the net revenue was 1.5302 billion yuan. GMV increased from 4.7259 billion yuan in 2018 to 7.6147 billion yuan in 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of 26.9%. The data shows that the average customer unit price of real-time retail in the daily Youxian front warehouse is 94.6 yuan.</p><p>Daily Youxian pioneered the front-end warehouse model in May 2015. At present, it has opened 631 front-end warehouses in 16 first-and second-tier cities across the country, providing consumers with over 4,300 fast-delivery products and an average service of 39 minutes. At present, it has more than 31 million cumulative trading users, and its GMV in 2020 is 7.6 billion yuan. In the second half of 2020, Daily Youxian launched a smart vegetable market business, and plans to promote the standardization of vegetable markets and upgrade to small fresh community shopping malls. As of May 31, 2021, it has signed operation agreements with 54 vegetable markets in 14 cities, and started operations in 33 vegetable markets in 10 cities.</p><p>In addition, the data in the prospectus shows that the average customer unit price of 94.6 yuan per day is the highest in the industry, and the performance expense ratio has continued to drop from 34.9% in 2018 to 25.7% in 2020. Higher than the industry average.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/norm_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2021-06-24/doc-ikqcfnca2883860.shtml\">新浪科技综合</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/604b5a8595b17f13ade7eb1901dcc75e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/norm_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2021-06-24/doc-ikqcfnca2883860.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145011760","content_text":"6月24日消息，据接近IPO的市场人士消息称，自递交红鲱鱼招股书以来，每日优鲜认购火爆，已获得超额认购， 拟提前结束簿记，预计提前至美东时间6月25日正式上市。\n6月22日，每日优鲜更新招股书，预计美股IPO定价区间为13-16美元/ADS，预计将发行2100万股ADS。现有股东中金、腾讯、美国长线基金Davis等将购买至多价值9000万美元的ADS。\n招股书数据显示，2018年，每日优鲜的净营收约为35.467亿元，2019年增至60.014亿元，2020年达到61.304亿元。截止2020年3月31日的三个月，每日优鲜的净营收为16.898亿元，截止2021年3月31日的三个月，净营收为15.302亿元。GMV从2018年的47.259亿元增长到2020年的76.147亿元人民币，复合年增长率为26.9%。数据显示，每日优鲜前置仓即时零售的平均客单价为94.6元。\n每日优鲜于2015年5月首创前置仓模式，目前已在全国16个一二线城市开设631个前置仓，为消费者提供超4300款极速达商品、平均39分钟达的服务。目前其累计交易用户3100多万，2020年GMV76亿元。2020年下半年，每日优鲜推出智慧菜场业务，计划推动菜市场标准化以及向小型生鲜社区商场升级。截至2021年5月31日，其已与14个城市的54家菜场签订运营协议，并在10个城市的33家菜场展开运营。\n另外，招股书数据显示，每日优鲜94.6元的平均客单价为行业最高，履约费用率从2018年的34.9%持续降至2020年的25.7%，履约利润率（毛利率扣除履约费用率）高于行业平均水平。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128324436,"gmtCreate":1624502762325,"gmtModify":1703838581930,"author":{"id":"3581983097481247","authorId":"3581983097481247","name":"无欲2057","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e1909dfac2a022786e0d074699d2f2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983097481247","authorIdStr":"3581983097481247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/128324436","repostId":"1197802851","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":916,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128325507,"gmtCreate":1624502741609,"gmtModify":1703838580293,"author":{"id":"3581983097481247","authorId":"3581983097481247","name":"无欲2057","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e1909dfac2a022786e0d074699d2f2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983097481247","authorIdStr":"3581983097481247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/128325507","repostId":"1136429303","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136429303","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624502224,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1136429303?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-24 10:37","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"A-shares have suffered in the past 10 years and will be much better in the next 10 years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136429303","media":"新财富","summary":"核心观点：\n1、经济压力对经济、心理、行为的影响，降低了承担风险的意愿。一段时间经济增速更低，利率更低，中央银行关注焦点更多在货币上而不是通胀上面。\n2、长期问题：边际资本报酬递减，这与日韩历史进程是","content":"<p><b>Core views:</b></p><p>1. The impact of economic pressure on economy, psychology and behavior reduces the willingness to take risks. For a period of time, the economic growth rate was lower, interest rates were lower, and the central bank focused more on currency than inflation.</p><p>2. Long-term problem: The marginal return on capital is diminishing, which is very close to the historical process of Japan and South Korea, and corresponds to the continuous decline of the return on capital.</p><p>3. Compared with other countries, the decline of long-term returns is positively correlated with the decline of interest rate center, while the opposite is true in China. China's interest rate rose instead of falling during the transition period. Correspondingly, at the micro level, all profits were eaten by interest and equity profits were eroded.</p><p>4. The reason for the inflated high interest rate is that the leverage ratio has risen too fast (the investment rate and savings rate have declined slightly, which is not the core factor). The large-scale financing of government departments has weaker financial constraints, which has pushed up the interest rate level and squeezed out private investment, driven by political achievements rather than investment returns.</p><p>5. There is a long-term downward trend in interest rates (as long as inflation expectations are not so high, nominal interest rates will also fall), and superimposed precautionary savings will also inhibit further rises in interest rates.</p><p>Views on A-shares: In the past, China's interest rate level was unreasonably high, and the return on capital rate dropped again, so A-shares will always be young and will always be 3,000 points. But the next 5-10 years of abnormal interest rate rises will come to an end. Looking at the 10-year Treasury Bond, it will fall to 2% in the future. This will greatly affect the equity market. The past 10 years have been suffering, and the next 10 years will be much better.</p><p><b>Here is the text:</b></p><p>In the past year and a half, the global economy has suffered a sudden impact from the new crown, and economic and financial activities have suffered severe damage and disruption. We seem safe to say that with vaccination, we are making more progress and more comfortable living with the virus. With defensive barriers erected, economic recovery is in sight.</p><p>The financial market has turned its attention to the post-epidemic era and begun to pay attention to changes in the prices of various financial assets.</p><p>Compared with before the outbreak of the epidemic in 2019, will there be systematic differences in financial asset pricing?</p><p>Human history has often encountered disasters, and COVID-19 pandemic is the worst epidemic in nearly a hundred years.</p><p>Financial markets are already considering what will happen after the economy fully recovers. The question to be asked is whether the disaster itself will have long-term effects on human psychology and behavior after the disaster has passed.</p><p>Combined with some historical experience analysis, it can be generally said that from the perspective of economic behavior, it will have two long-term effects on our lives.</p><p>First, compared with before the disaster, people's willingness and ability to accept risks will decrease, and they are unwilling to take radical actions.</p><p>Second, the epidemic has had a serious impact on lives and property, and millions of people around the world will eventually lose their lives. The stock of capital has also been greatly impacted, and many enterprises have closed down. More importantly, normal investment activities have stopped. Investment activity in major economies has all experienced sharp declines. A decline in population means a decline in human resources. It can be said that the supply capacity of the entire economy will be relatively low even after the epidemic is over. First, many enterprises have disappeared, and second, the production activities of many enterprises cannot be carried out normally. All this determines that it is difficult for the economic supply capacity to recover quickly.</p><p>China brought the epidemic under control in the middle of last year, and its economic life recovered rapidly in August last year at the latest. It has been a year since then. Although transnational tourism and other activities have not returned to normal, most activities have returned to normal.</p><p>Studying the performance of China's economy will help us understand the economic performance after the epidemic and better understand the changes in financial asset pricing.</p><p>The first is to study the savings behavior of residents' departments. Throughout the epidemic, residents' precautionary savings have systematically increased, residents have become more conservative, and residents have become more anxious.</p><p>In the first and second quarters of last year, the savings rate rose abnormally by 6 percentage points, which was abnormally large. The possible reason is that social isolation makes many consumption behaviors impossible to complete. Many consumer funds are passively saved. As consumption behavior cannot be unfolded, passive savings increase.</p><p>How much was passive savings and how much was anxiety savings in the first and second quarters of last year? It's not easy to tell. Europe and the United States are still in anxiety. The economy basically began to be normal in the third quarter of last year. In the fourth quarter of last year and the first and second quarters of this year, there should be not much passive savings in the economy, but it still increased by 1-2 points. This part should be the increase of long-term savings. Passive savings should have 4 points.</p><p><b>Where did the 4-point passive savings go?</b></p><p>First, during the social isolation period, it is saved up and spent when the social isolation is over. Second, part of the savings buy a house, which will not be converted into consumption for a long time.</p><p>Where these passive savings will go is not very easy to tell.</p><p>The situation in China shows that these passive savings are not quickly converted into immediate consumption. If it is quickly converted into consumption, the changing trend of precautionary savings in the second and third quarters of last year is very smooth, and it is somewhat rising.</p><p>The passive savings accumulated in the United States is amazing, and the U.S. government has issued a lot of subsidies. After the social isolation is lifted, will the passive savings obtained by the United States be released immediately? If so, the United States will soon face severe inflationary pressure. However, judging from the situation in China, passive savings will not be consumed soon, and the fear of inflation may be filtered.</p><p><b>The impact of rising savings rates?</b></p><p>If everyone doesn't spend, then economic activity will shrink. Even if China's precautionary savings growth is estimated by 2 points, regardless of the multiplier effect, the impact on China's economic growth should be 1 point. Originally, China's growth rate should have been 6%, but it should actually be 5%. The current growth rate is more than 5%, thanks to strong exports.</p><p>The growth of consumer spending of Chinese residents, which was about 6% before the epidemic, has stabilized at 3% in the past few quarters, which has dropped by half compared to before the epidemic.</p><p>Manufacturing investment and private investment activities have been inactive for a long time. Before the epidemic, they basically remained above 0. After the epidemic, after excluding inflation factors, they were all below 0.</p><p>It can be seen that people are more reluctant to take risks, and the impact on the economic aggregate should be 1 point. If exports decline next year, economic growth may be lower than expected.</p><p>The good news is that human beings are essentially optimistic species. Sooner or later, human beings will forget the pain. The bad news is that we don't know when this turning point will happen, maybe at the end of next year, three years or five years from now. We can only know that the more serious the crisis is, the longer the impact will last, and this time it will not pass soon. The epidemic has caused great damage to production capacity. This inhibitory factor is also clearly reflected in the data.</p><p>Looking at the rebound after the economic shock in this century, before 2013, for every point of economic growth rebound, inflation will increase by 0.6. This resilience reached 2.4 in 2016-2017. In 2016, it was mainly due to the supply-side reform, and the impact of the demand side was relatively weak.</p><p>The elasticity of this round in 2020 is 0.9-1, which is at least 50% higher than the normal level in 2013. At present, most of the price pressure is related to rising demand, which is normal and one-off, but one-third of the pressure is related to supply-side pressure. Some of the supply-side pressures are long-term. Including carbon emission reduction, environmental protection, etc., as well as long-term damage factors to supply capacity.</p><p>After economic activities have fully returned to normal, the willingness to invest is lower, resulting in lower economic growth levels, lower supply capacity and higher inflation.</p><p>Take a look at the reaction in financial markets. Because of vaccination, the rise in US Treasury Bond interest rates was once considered to have a significant relationship with the decline of Chinese A-shares.</p><p>The rise in U.S. Treasury Bond interest rates began to stall in April.</p><p>The long-term inflation expectation implied by the U.S. ten-year Treasury Bond is much higher than before the pandemic, and the real interest rate is much lower than before the pandemic. Before the pandemic, it was around 0 and now it is-0.5.</p><p>Although the Federal Reserve released hawkish signals last week, the market reaction was much weaker.</p><p>Everyone has optimistic expectations for economic recovery this year. The turning expectation for the flow is also determined. However, the yields of Chinese 10-year and 1-year Treasury Bond are declining.</p><p>If the market includes higher inflation expectations, the real yield of the ten-year Treasury Bond will undoubtedly be lower.</p><p>In a very low interest rate environment, it will affect asset valuations.</p><p>The savings rate of American households has risen sharply, and we don't know how to digest this part of passive savings.</p><p>Judging from the situation in China, it is unlikely that the United States will form a substantial inflationary shock in the future. This is more beneficial to the bond market and has a positive impact on the equity market.</p><p>Financial markets are constantly absorbing the prospects we discuss. But from the perspective of the Chinese market, people's response to lower interest rates and lower growth is not sufficient. There may be adjustments later.</p><p>Since 2011, China's economic growth rate has fluctuated and declined, and now it has dropped to around 5.</p><p>Compared with East Asian neighbors, after the per capita income reaches a high level, it is normal for the rapid economic growth to decline, and the slope of the decline is also normal.</p><p><b>Why does long-term economic growth decline? It lasts so long?</b></p><p>People's psychological preparation for the slowdown in growth before was insufficient.</p><p>Economic analysis is the easiest because it is an explanation after the fact.</p><p>There are many explanations for the economic slowdown, such as the slowdown of agricultural labor transfer and the increase of the proportion of service industry (the technological progress of service industry is inherently slow), but the universal law is that the marginal return of capital is diminishing.</p><p>The ultimate reason for the decline of China's economic growth is that China's economy has gone to the stage of diminishing returns on capital.</p><p>How to evaluate marginal return: incremental capital-output ratio (ICOR)? How much additional capital is required for every dollar of economic activity output.</p><p>This indicator goes up, which means that the output level has dropped. Before 2006, it was 3-4, but now it has reached 8. The marginal reward almost dropped by half.</p><p>If we look at the five-year geometric average, the diminishing marginal returns are also obvious.</p><p>From the perspective of East Asian economies, compared with Japan, Taiwan Province and South Korea, before the transition, the return on capital was very close, roughly around 4. After the transition, the diminishing marginal return in mainland China did not worsen.</p><p>If the rolling average is done, before the transformation, China's capital return is close to that of Japan and South Korea. After the transformation, the slope of capital return deterioration is relatively normal to the current level.</p><p>Part of the remuneration of capital goes to the laborers and part to the government, as well as the profits, depreciation and interest taken by capital. Before 2010, China's return on capital was very high, but after 2010, it experienced a substantial decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a6b7eee2798e5638e85813dda233122\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Why not do international comparisons of capital returns? Because it is difficult to account for the capital stock of an economy.</p><p>The whole social capital is the ROA of enterprise capital at the micro level. The decline of macro rate of return should also be reflected at the micro level.</p><p>It can be seen that the ROA of listed companies is declining in one direction. In order to smooth out the impact of emergencies, the five-year average data is used, which is also a decline.</p><p>The ROA of state-owned enterprises has also declined, but the ROA of non-state-owned industrial enterprises is different, which may be related to unstable sampling. The sampling of state-owned enterprises is more stable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0884efc2d46ee334ac14ec51d0049046\" tg-width=\"606\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Part of the return on the total assets of the enterprise is given to bondholders and turned into interest, and part is taken away by shareholders and turned into profits. How do interest rates change during the decline in return on total assets?</p><p>What we think is definite is down. Because the total cake is down.</p><p>From the perspective of East Asian economies, the one-year nominal Treasury Bond interest rate after the transition has a significant downward trend.</p><p>However, in China, interest rates have experienced a significant increase, which is different from the decline in return on total assets and its East Asian neighbors.</p><p>If the impact of inflation is excluded, the trend of rising interest rates also exists.</p><p>Credit interest rates in East Asian countries are on a downward trend, but credit interest rates in China have been rising, even if inflation is considered.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d87b06507c5882210f0a86064df1b5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the process of diminishing marginal returns in China, interest rates are still getting higher and higher. China's credit market is divided into many sub-categories, and basically there is no decline in interest rates. Excluding inflation, it will rise instead. The trend is very weird, should it fall or not. The consequence is that ROE will decline at an accelerated rate, and the market valuation center will be suppressed.</p><p>Therefore, A-shares will always be young and will always be 3000 points.</p><p>Unreasonably high interest rates have dampened valuations and earnings. The market can only tenaciously rely on eps to rise. Of course, there are many bottom-up reasons.</p><p><b>What are the reasons for unreasonably high interest rates?</b></p><p>A speculative explanation is that China's household savings rate has experienced a big decline, but the decline in China's savings rate is very slight. Another explanation is that financing is too tight, but China's leverage ratio is listed very quickly. Among East Asian economies, the leverage ratio is rising the fastest.</p><p>We believe that the most important impact is that in the past decade, the government regarded the economic decline as a cyclical phenomenon, so it needed a lot of financial support. The public sector raised funds in the market on a large scale, but the expansion of public sector financing was subject to weak interest rate constraints, pushing up interest rates, squeezing out private investment, and constantly squeezing out. This also brings the paradox of a declining economy and rising interest rates.</p><p>The more serious the crowding out of the private sector is, the stronger the economic expansion of the public sector is, forming an a vicious circle.</p><p>Make some predictions about the future:</p><p>This logic has just ended or will soon end. With the end of this logic, there will be a trend and relatively large decline in interest rates.</p><p>The next 5-10 years of dysfunctional interest rate rises will come to an end.</p><p>The trend of China's economic interest rate deviates from that of East Asian countries, but this deviation is an exception, and there will be a greater decline in the next 5-10 years.</p><p>For the equity market, valuation pressure will be removed, profit pressure will also be reduced, the private economy will return to the economy, pricing distortions will be corrected, valuation and profit distortions will also be corrected, and allocation efficiency will be improved.</p><p>In 2016, comprehensive deployment to prevent financial risks began, and marginal changes have already begun.</p><p>From 2011 to 2016, more and more money flowed to local governments. After 2017, the trend has changed somewhat. More and more money flowed to enterprises, the market interest rate showed signs of decline, and the valuation of the equity market also showed signs of improvement.</p><p>In the past ten years, the increase of the Shanghai Composite Index has been limited, which may have been suppressed by exceptional factors. Now it has seen signs of lifting. Coupled with the increase in precautionary savings, the signs of interest rate decline will be more obvious.</p><p>If you look at Treasury Bond's interest rate in 2030, it will be very low by then, and it will fall to 2%.</p><p>This will have a relatively large impact on the equity market. People in the capital market have been relatively difficult in the past ten years, and it will be much better in the next ten years.</p>","source":"XCF","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A-shares have suffered in the past 10 years and will be much better in the next 10 years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA-shares have suffered in the past 10 years and will be much better in the next 10 years\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新财富</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 10:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Core views:</b></p><p>1. The impact of economic pressure on economy, psychology and behavior reduces the willingness to take risks. For a period of time, the economic growth rate was lower, interest rates were lower, and the central bank focused more on currency than inflation.</p><p>2. Long-term problem: The marginal return on capital is diminishing, which is very close to the historical process of Japan and South Korea, and corresponds to the continuous decline of the return on capital.</p><p>3. Compared with other countries, the decline of long-term returns is positively correlated with the decline of interest rate center, while the opposite is true in China. China's interest rate rose instead of falling during the transition period. Correspondingly, at the micro level, all profits were eaten by interest and equity profits were eroded.</p><p>4. The reason for the inflated high interest rate is that the leverage ratio has risen too fast (the investment rate and savings rate have declined slightly, which is not the core factor). The large-scale financing of government departments has weaker financial constraints, which has pushed up the interest rate level and squeezed out private investment, driven by political achievements rather than investment returns.</p><p>5. There is a long-term downward trend in interest rates (as long as inflation expectations are not so high, nominal interest rates will also fall), and superimposed precautionary savings will also inhibit further rises in interest rates.</p><p>Views on A-shares: In the past, China's interest rate level was unreasonably high, and the return on capital rate dropped again, so A-shares will always be young and will always be 3,000 points. But the next 5-10 years of abnormal interest rate rises will come to an end. Looking at the 10-year Treasury Bond, it will fall to 2% in the future. This will greatly affect the equity market. The past 10 years have been suffering, and the next 10 years will be much better.</p><p><b>Here is the text:</b></p><p>In the past year and a half, the global economy has suffered a sudden impact from the new crown, and economic and financial activities have suffered severe damage and disruption. We seem safe to say that with vaccination, we are making more progress and more comfortable living with the virus. With defensive barriers erected, economic recovery is in sight.</p><p>The financial market has turned its attention to the post-epidemic era and begun to pay attention to changes in the prices of various financial assets.</p><p>Compared with before the outbreak of the epidemic in 2019, will there be systematic differences in financial asset pricing?</p><p>Human history has often encountered disasters, and COVID-19 pandemic is the worst epidemic in nearly a hundred years.</p><p>Financial markets are already considering what will happen after the economy fully recovers. The question to be asked is whether the disaster itself will have long-term effects on human psychology and behavior after the disaster has passed.</p><p>Combined with some historical experience analysis, it can be generally said that from the perspective of economic behavior, it will have two long-term effects on our lives.</p><p>First, compared with before the disaster, people's willingness and ability to accept risks will decrease, and they are unwilling to take radical actions.</p><p>Second, the epidemic has had a serious impact on lives and property, and millions of people around the world will eventually lose their lives. The stock of capital has also been greatly impacted, and many enterprises have closed down. More importantly, normal investment activities have stopped. Investment activity in major economies has all experienced sharp declines. A decline in population means a decline in human resources. It can be said that the supply capacity of the entire economy will be relatively low even after the epidemic is over. First, many enterprises have disappeared, and second, the production activities of many enterprises cannot be carried out normally. All this determines that it is difficult for the economic supply capacity to recover quickly.</p><p>China brought the epidemic under control in the middle of last year, and its economic life recovered rapidly in August last year at the latest. It has been a year since then. Although transnational tourism and other activities have not returned to normal, most activities have returned to normal.</p><p>Studying the performance of China's economy will help us understand the economic performance after the epidemic and better understand the changes in financial asset pricing.</p><p>The first is to study the savings behavior of residents' departments. Throughout the epidemic, residents' precautionary savings have systematically increased, residents have become more conservative, and residents have become more anxious.</p><p>In the first and second quarters of last year, the savings rate rose abnormally by 6 percentage points, which was abnormally large. The possible reason is that social isolation makes many consumption behaviors impossible to complete. Many consumer funds are passively saved. As consumption behavior cannot be unfolded, passive savings increase.</p><p>How much was passive savings and how much was anxiety savings in the first and second quarters of last year? It's not easy to tell. Europe and the United States are still in anxiety. The economy basically began to be normal in the third quarter of last year. In the fourth quarter of last year and the first and second quarters of this year, there should be not much passive savings in the economy, but it still increased by 1-2 points. This part should be the increase of long-term savings. Passive savings should have 4 points.</p><p><b>Where did the 4-point passive savings go?</b></p><p>First, during the social isolation period, it is saved up and spent when the social isolation is over. Second, part of the savings buy a house, which will not be converted into consumption for a long time.</p><p>Where these passive savings will go is not very easy to tell.</p><p>The situation in China shows that these passive savings are not quickly converted into immediate consumption. If it is quickly converted into consumption, the changing trend of precautionary savings in the second and third quarters of last year is very smooth, and it is somewhat rising.</p><p>The passive savings accumulated in the United States is amazing, and the U.S. government has issued a lot of subsidies. After the social isolation is lifted, will the passive savings obtained by the United States be released immediately? If so, the United States will soon face severe inflationary pressure. However, judging from the situation in China, passive savings will not be consumed soon, and the fear of inflation may be filtered.</p><p><b>The impact of rising savings rates?</b></p><p>If everyone doesn't spend, then economic activity will shrink. Even if China's precautionary savings growth is estimated by 2 points, regardless of the multiplier effect, the impact on China's economic growth should be 1 point. Originally, China's growth rate should have been 6%, but it should actually be 5%. The current growth rate is more than 5%, thanks to strong exports.</p><p>The growth of consumer spending of Chinese residents, which was about 6% before the epidemic, has stabilized at 3% in the past few quarters, which has dropped by half compared to before the epidemic.</p><p>Manufacturing investment and private investment activities have been inactive for a long time. Before the epidemic, they basically remained above 0. After the epidemic, after excluding inflation factors, they were all below 0.</p><p>It can be seen that people are more reluctant to take risks, and the impact on the economic aggregate should be 1 point. If exports decline next year, economic growth may be lower than expected.</p><p>The good news is that human beings are essentially optimistic species. Sooner or later, human beings will forget the pain. The bad news is that we don't know when this turning point will happen, maybe at the end of next year, three years or five years from now. We can only know that the more serious the crisis is, the longer the impact will last, and this time it will not pass soon. The epidemic has caused great damage to production capacity. This inhibitory factor is also clearly reflected in the data.</p><p>Looking at the rebound after the economic shock in this century, before 2013, for every point of economic growth rebound, inflation will increase by 0.6. This resilience reached 2.4 in 2016-2017. In 2016, it was mainly due to the supply-side reform, and the impact of the demand side was relatively weak.</p><p>The elasticity of this round in 2020 is 0.9-1, which is at least 50% higher than the normal level in 2013. At present, most of the price pressure is related to rising demand, which is normal and one-off, but one-third of the pressure is related to supply-side pressure. Some of the supply-side pressures are long-term. Including carbon emission reduction, environmental protection, etc., as well as long-term damage factors to supply capacity.</p><p>After economic activities have fully returned to normal, the willingness to invest is lower, resulting in lower economic growth levels, lower supply capacity and higher inflation.</p><p>Take a look at the reaction in financial markets. Because of vaccination, the rise in US Treasury Bond interest rates was once considered to have a significant relationship with the decline of Chinese A-shares.</p><p>The rise in U.S. Treasury Bond interest rates began to stall in April.</p><p>The long-term inflation expectation implied by the U.S. ten-year Treasury Bond is much higher than before the pandemic, and the real interest rate is much lower than before the pandemic. Before the pandemic, it was around 0 and now it is-0.5.</p><p>Although the Federal Reserve released hawkish signals last week, the market reaction was much weaker.</p><p>Everyone has optimistic expectations for economic recovery this year. The turning expectation for the flow is also determined. However, the yields of Chinese 10-year and 1-year Treasury Bond are declining.</p><p>If the market includes higher inflation expectations, the real yield of the ten-year Treasury Bond will undoubtedly be lower.</p><p>In a very low interest rate environment, it will affect asset valuations.</p><p>The savings rate of American households has risen sharply, and we don't know how to digest this part of passive savings.</p><p>Judging from the situation in China, it is unlikely that the United States will form a substantial inflationary shock in the future. This is more beneficial to the bond market and has a positive impact on the equity market.</p><p>Financial markets are constantly absorbing the prospects we discuss. But from the perspective of the Chinese market, people's response to lower interest rates and lower growth is not sufficient. There may be adjustments later.</p><p>Since 2011, China's economic growth rate has fluctuated and declined, and now it has dropped to around 5.</p><p>Compared with East Asian neighbors, after the per capita income reaches a high level, it is normal for the rapid economic growth to decline, and the slope of the decline is also normal.</p><p><b>Why does long-term economic growth decline? It lasts so long?</b></p><p>People's psychological preparation for the slowdown in growth before was insufficient.</p><p>Economic analysis is the easiest because it is an explanation after the fact.</p><p>There are many explanations for the economic slowdown, such as the slowdown of agricultural labor transfer and the increase of the proportion of service industry (the technological progress of service industry is inherently slow), but the universal law is that the marginal return of capital is diminishing.</p><p>The ultimate reason for the decline of China's economic growth is that China's economy has gone to the stage of diminishing returns on capital.</p><p>How to evaluate marginal return: incremental capital-output ratio (ICOR)? How much additional capital is required for every dollar of economic activity output.</p><p>This indicator goes up, which means that the output level has dropped. Before 2006, it was 3-4, but now it has reached 8. The marginal reward almost dropped by half.</p><p>If we look at the five-year geometric average, the diminishing marginal returns are also obvious.</p><p>From the perspective of East Asian economies, compared with Japan, Taiwan Province and South Korea, before the transition, the return on capital was very close, roughly around 4. After the transition, the diminishing marginal return in mainland China did not worsen.</p><p>If the rolling average is done, before the transformation, China's capital return is close to that of Japan and South Korea. After the transformation, the slope of capital return deterioration is relatively normal to the current level.</p><p>Part of the remuneration of capital goes to the laborers and part to the government, as well as the profits, depreciation and interest taken by capital. Before 2010, China's return on capital was very high, but after 2010, it experienced a substantial decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a6b7eee2798e5638e85813dda233122\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Why not do international comparisons of capital returns? Because it is difficult to account for the capital stock of an economy.</p><p>The whole social capital is the ROA of enterprise capital at the micro level. The decline of macro rate of return should also be reflected at the micro level.</p><p>It can be seen that the ROA of listed companies is declining in one direction. In order to smooth out the impact of emergencies, the five-year average data is used, which is also a decline.</p><p>The ROA of state-owned enterprises has also declined, but the ROA of non-state-owned industrial enterprises is different, which may be related to unstable sampling. The sampling of state-owned enterprises is more stable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0884efc2d46ee334ac14ec51d0049046\" tg-width=\"606\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Part of the return on the total assets of the enterprise is given to bondholders and turned into interest, and part is taken away by shareholders and turned into profits. How do interest rates change during the decline in return on total assets?</p><p>What we think is definite is down. Because the total cake is down.</p><p>From the perspective of East Asian economies, the one-year nominal Treasury Bond interest rate after the transition has a significant downward trend.</p><p>However, in China, interest rates have experienced a significant increase, which is different from the decline in return on total assets and its East Asian neighbors.</p><p>If the impact of inflation is excluded, the trend of rising interest rates also exists.</p><p>Credit interest rates in East Asian countries are on a downward trend, but credit interest rates in China have been rising, even if inflation is considered.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d87b06507c5882210f0a86064df1b5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the process of diminishing marginal returns in China, interest rates are still getting higher and higher. China's credit market is divided into many sub-categories, and basically there is no decline in interest rates. Excluding inflation, it will rise instead. The trend is very weird, should it fall or not. The consequence is that ROE will decline at an accelerated rate, and the market valuation center will be suppressed.</p><p>Therefore, A-shares will always be young and will always be 3000 points.</p><p>Unreasonably high interest rates have dampened valuations and earnings. The market can only tenaciously rely on eps to rise. Of course, there are many bottom-up reasons.</p><p><b>What are the reasons for unreasonably high interest rates?</b></p><p>A speculative explanation is that China's household savings rate has experienced a big decline, but the decline in China's savings rate is very slight. Another explanation is that financing is too tight, but China's leverage ratio is listed very quickly. Among East Asian economies, the leverage ratio is rising the fastest.</p><p>We believe that the most important impact is that in the past decade, the government regarded the economic decline as a cyclical phenomenon, so it needed a lot of financial support. The public sector raised funds in the market on a large scale, but the expansion of public sector financing was subject to weak interest rate constraints, pushing up interest rates, squeezing out private investment, and constantly squeezing out. This also brings the paradox of a declining economy and rising interest rates.</p><p>The more serious the crowding out of the private sector is, the stronger the economic expansion of the public sector is, forming an a vicious circle.</p><p>Make some predictions about the future:</p><p>This logic has just ended or will soon end. With the end of this logic, there will be a trend and relatively large decline in interest rates.</p><p>The next 5-10 years of dysfunctional interest rate rises will come to an end.</p><p>The trend of China's economic interest rate deviates from that of East Asian countries, but this deviation is an exception, and there will be a greater decline in the next 5-10 years.</p><p>For the equity market, valuation pressure will be removed, profit pressure will also be reduced, the private economy will return to the economy, pricing distortions will be corrected, valuation and profit distortions will also be corrected, and allocation efficiency will be improved.</p><p>In 2016, comprehensive deployment to prevent financial risks began, and marginal changes have already begun.</p><p>From 2011 to 2016, more and more money flowed to local governments. After 2017, the trend has changed somewhat. More and more money flowed to enterprises, the market interest rate showed signs of decline, and the valuation of the equity market also showed signs of improvement.</p><p>In the past ten years, the increase of the Shanghai Composite Index has been limited, which may have been suppressed by exceptional factors. Now it has seen signs of lifting. Coupled with the increase in precautionary savings, the signs of interest rate decline will be more obvious.</p><p>If you look at Treasury Bond's interest rate in 2030, it will be very low by then, and it will fall to 2%.</p><p>This will have a relatively large impact on the equity market. People in the capital market have been relatively difficult in the past ten years, and it will be much better in the next ten years.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JDeEFOAASxW7ddANZVzbdw\">新财富</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/613a9f1e2a78b62d187cf10c318f0e65","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JDeEFOAASxW7ddANZVzbdw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136429303","content_text":"核心观点：\n1、经济压力对经济、心理、行为的影响，降低了承担风险的意愿。一段时间经济增速更低，利率更低，中央银行关注焦点更多在货币上而不是通胀上面。\n2、长期问题：边际资本报酬递减，这与日韩历史进程是很接近的，对应的也是资本报酬率的持续下降。\n3、对比其他国家，长期回报下降与利率中枢下降是正相关的，而中国是相反的。中国利率在转型期不降反升，对应在微观层面表现为利润都被利息吃掉了，股权利润被侵蚀。\n4、利率虚高的原因，杠杆率上升太快了（投资率储蓄率下降都很轻微不是核心因素），政府部门大规模融资，财务约束更弱，推升了利率水平，同时挤出了私人投资，政绩驱动而非投资回报驱动。\n5、利率长期存在下行趋势（只要通胀预期不那么高，那么名义利率也会下），叠加预防性储蓄也会抑制利率的进一步上升。\n对A股的看法：过去中国利率水平不合理的高，资本报酬率又下降，所以A股永远年轻，永远都是3000点。但未来5-10年不正常的利率上升将会终结。看10年国债，将来会跌到2%。这将极大影响权益市场，过去10年很煎熬，未来10年会好得多。\n以下为正文：\n在过去一年半时间里，全球经济遭遇到了突如其来的新冠冲击，经济活动和金融活动遭受了严重的破坏和混乱。我们似乎有把握说，随着疫苗接种，我们越来越取得进展，也越来越适应与病毒共存。随着防御屏障建立起来，经济恢复是在望的。\n金融市场已经将目光转向后疫情时代，开始关注各类金融资产价格的变化。\n和2019年疫情爆发前相比，金融资产定价是否会有系统性差异?\n人类历史时常会遇到灾难事件，新冠疫情是近一百年来最严重的流行病。\n金融市场已经在考虑经济全面恢复后的情况。要提出的问题是，灾难过去后，灾难本身是否会对人类心理和行为产生长期影响。\n结合一些历史经验分析，可以概括地说，从经济行为角度来讲，对我们的生活会产生两个长期影响。\n一是，相对于灾难前，人们接受风险的意愿和能力会下降，不愿意采取激进的行为。\n二是，疫情对生命和财产造成了比较严重的冲击，全球最终会有上百万人失去生命。资本存量也受到很大冲击，不少企业关门歇业。更重要的是，正常的投资活动都停止了。主要经济体的投资活动都经历了大幅下降。人口下降意味着人力资源下降。可以说，整个经济供应能力即使在疫情结束后，也会处于比较低的状态。一是很多企业消失了，二是很多企业生产活动无法正常进行。这都决定了经济供应能力很难很快恢复。\n中国去年年中控制住了疫情，最晚在去年8月经济生活快速恢复，至今已经有一年时间，虽然跨国旅游等活动还没有恢复正常，但绝大多数活动已经正常。\n研究中国经济的表现，有助于我们理解疫情后的经济表现，也可以更好理解金融资产定价的变化。\n首先是是研究居民部门储蓄行为。整个疫情期间，居民预防性储蓄都有系统性上升，居民变得更加保守，居民变得更加焦虑。\n去年一季度和二季度，储蓄率异常上升了6个百分点，异常的大。可能的原因是社交隔离使得很多消费行为无法完成。很多消费资金被动储蓄起来。由于消费行为无法展开，被动储蓄增加。\n去年1、2季度中有多少是被动储蓄、有多少是焦虑储蓄？不是很好分清楚。欧美现在还处于焦虑中。去年3季度经济基本开始正常。去年四季度、今年1、2季度经济中被动储蓄应该已经不多，但是还是增长了1-2个点，这部分应该就是长期储蓄的增加。被动储蓄应该有4个点。\n4个点的被动储蓄去了哪了？\n一是社交隔离期间，攒起来了，社交隔离结束就花掉了。二是部分储蓄买了房子，在很长时间内都不会转化为消费。\n这些被动储蓄会流向哪里不是很容易判断。\n中国的情况说明，这些被动储蓄没有很快的转化为即时消费。如果很快转化为消费，去年二三季度预防性储蓄的变化趋势是很平滑的，多少还有些上升。\n美国积累的被动储蓄非常惊人，美国政府发放了大量补贴。社交隔离解除后，美国获得的被动储蓄是不是会马上释放出来，如果会，那美国很快会面临严重的通胀压力。但是从中国的情况看，被动储蓄不会很快消费掉，对通胀的担心可能是过滤了。\n储蓄率上升的影响？\n如果每个人都不消费，那么经济活动会萎缩。即使以中国预防性储蓄增长2个点来估计，不考虑乘数效应，对中国经济增长的影响应该在1个点。原本中国增速应该在6%，实际应该是5%。目前增速超过5%，得益于强劲的出口。\n中国居民消费开支的增长，在疫情前大概是6%，在过去几个季度稳定下来，稳定在3%，相对于疫情前下跌了一半。\n制造业投资和民间投资活动长期不太活跃，疫情前基本维持在0以上的水平，疫情后，剔除通胀因素后，都在0以下水平。\n可以看到人们更不愿意承受风险，对经济总量的影响应该在1个点，如果明年出口下滑，经济增长可能会低于预期。\n好消息是人类本质上是个乐观主义的物种，人类迟早都会忘掉痛苦，坏消息是不知道这一转折什么时候发生，可能明年年底、三年、五年后。我们只能知道，危机越严重，影响持续越长，这一次也不会很快过去、疫情对生产能力造成很大破坏，这一抑制因素在数据上也有清晰体现。\n本世纪经济冲击后的反弹情况看，2013年以前，经济增速每反弹一个点，通胀将增长0.6。2016-2017年这一弹性达到2.4。2016年主要是因为供给侧改革，需求面的影响是比较微弱的。\n2020年这一轮弹性在0.9-1，相对于2013年的正常水平，至少上升了50%。现在价格压力大部分与需求上升有关系，是正常的，也是一次性的，但是还有三分之一的压力和供应端压力有关。供应端压力之中一部分具有长期性。包括碳减排、环保等，还有供应能力的长期破坏因素。\n在经济活动完全恢复正常以后，投资意愿更低，造成经济增长水平更低，供应能力更低，造成通胀更高。\n看一下在金融市场的反应。因为疫苗接种美国国债利率上升一度被认为与中国A股下跌有显著关系。\n美国国债利率上升在4月份开始止步不前。\n美国十年期国债隐含的长期通胀预期比疫情前高得多，实际利率比疫情前低得多，疫情前是0附近，现在是-0.5。\n上周尽管美联储释放了鹰派信号，但是市场反应弱的多。\n大家对今年经济恢复保有乐观预期。对流动的转弯预期也是确定的。但是中国十年期、1年前期国债收益率都在下行。\n如果市场包含了更高的通胀预期，十年国债实际收益率无疑更低。\n在很低的利率环境下，会影响资产估值。\n美国居民储蓄率大幅调升，我们不知道这部分被动性储蓄如何消化。\n从中国情况看，后续美国形成大幅通胀冲击的可能性不大。这对债券市场更加有利，对权益市场影响也是偏正面的。\n金融市场在不断吸收我们讨论的前景。但从中国市场看，人们对更低的利率和更低的增长反应还不充分。后面可能还有调整。\n2011年以后中国经济增速出现波动下行，现在已经降到5附近。\n对照东亚邻国，人均收入达到较高水平后，经济高速增长下降是正常的，下降的斜率也是正常的。\n为什么长期经济增长会下降？持续时间还这么长？\n之前人们对增速放缓的心理准备是不足的。\n经济分析最容易的，因为是事后解释。\n经济放缓有很多解释，比如农业劳动力转移放慢、服务业比重增加（服务业技术进步本来就慢），但是普适规律是资本边际报酬递减。\n中国经济增速下降的终极原因就是中国经济过度到了资本报酬递减的阶段。\n如何评价边际报酬：增量资本产出比（ICOR)？经济活动每增加一块钱产出，需要额外付出多少资本。\n这个指标往上走，意味着产出水平下降，2006年以前是3-4，现在已经到了8。边际报酬几乎下降了一半。\n如果用五年几何平均看，边际报酬递减也是明显的。\n如果放在东亚经济体比较的视角来看，和日本、台湾、韩国比较看，转型前，资本报酬都很接近，大体都是4左右 ，转型后，中国内地的边际报酬递减也没有更加恶化。\n如果做滚动平均，转型前，中国资本报酬和日韩也是接近的，转型后，资本报酬恶化的斜率和目前的水平也是相对正常的。\n资本的报酬一部分归劳动者、一部分归政府，还有资本拿走的利润、折旧、利息。2010年之前，中国资本报酬率是很高的，2010年之后经历了很大幅度的下降。\n为什么不做资本报酬的国际比较？因为核算一个经济体的资本存量是很困难的。\n全社会资本在微观层面上就是企业资本的ROA。宏观报酬率下降在微观上也应该有体现。\n可以看到上市公司ROA是单向下降的。为了熨平突发事件影响，采用五年平均数据，也是下降。\n国有企业ROA也是下降的，但是非国有工业企业ROA有所不同，可能和取样不稳定有关。国有企业取样更加稳定。\n\n企业总资产的回报一部分给了债券持有人，变成利息，一部分被股东拿走，变成利润。在总资产报酬率下降的过程中，利率是怎么变化的 ？\n我们认为确定的是下降的。因为总的蛋糕是下降的。\n东亚经济体来看，转型后一年期名义国债利率都是有一个明显下降的趋势。\n但是中国情况是，利率反而经历了明显上升，与总资产报酬率下降不一样，和东亚邻国也不一样。\n如果剔除通胀影响，利率上升的趋势也存在。\n东亚各国信贷利率是下降趋势，但是中国信贷利率一直在上升，即使考虑通胀因素也是上升。\n\n中国在边际报酬递减的过程情况下，利率还是越来越高，中国信贷市场分为很多子类，基本上都看不到利率下降。剔除通胀，反而会上升。走势十分怪异，应降不降。后果就是ROE加速下降，市场估值中枢会受到抑制。\n所以A股永远年轻，永远都是3000点。\n不合理的高利率抑制了估值和盈利。市场只能顽强的依靠eps上涨。当然还有很多自下而上的原因。\n不合理的高利率原因是什么？\n一个猜测性解释是，中国居民储蓄率经历了很大下降，但是中国储蓄率下降是很轻微的。另一个解释是融资收的太紧，但是中国杠杆率上市特别快，在东亚经济体中，杠杆率的上升是最快的。\n我们认为最重要的影响是在过去十年里，政府把经济下降看成是一个周期现象，因而需要大量的财政支持，公共部门大规模在市场融资，但是公共部门的融资扩张，受到的利率约束很弱，推升了利率水平，挤出了私人投资，并且是不断挤出。这也带来了经济下降利率上升的悖论。\n私人部门挤出越严重，公共部门经济扩张更强，形成恶性循环。\n对未来做一些预判：\n刚才这个逻辑已经或者很快就会终结。随着这个逻辑终结，利率将会出现趋势性的、幅度比较大的下降。\n未来5-10年不正常的利率上升将会终结。\n中国经济利率趋势与东亚各国是背离的，但是这个背离是例外，未来5-10年将会出现更大的下降幅度。\n对于权益市场，估值压力将被搬走，盈利压力也减小，私人经济将重新回到经济体，定价扭曲将被修正，估值、盈利的扭曲也会被修正，配置效率将会提升。\n2016年开始全面部署防范金融风险开始，边际变化已经开始。\n2011-2016年资金流向地方政府的钱越来越多，2017年后趋势已经有些变化，流向企业的钱越来越多，市场利率出现下降苗头，权益市场估值也出现了提升苗头。\n过去十年上证指数涨幅有限，可能受到了例外因素的抑制，现在已经看到了解除的苗头，叠加预防性储蓄的增加，利率下降苗头会更加明显。\n如果看2030年国债利率，到时候将会非常低，将会跌到2%。\n这对权益市场会有比较大的影响，过去十年资本市场里面的人是比较难熬的，未来十年会好的多。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1088,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128325020,"gmtCreate":1624502719760,"gmtModify":1703838579143,"author":{"id":"3581983097481247","authorId":"3581983097481247","name":"无欲2057","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e1909dfac2a022786e0d074699d2f2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983097481247","authorIdStr":"3581983097481247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/128325020","repostId":"1136951406","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136951406","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624497362,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1136951406?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-24 09:16","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Chaoju Ophthalmology will launch its IPO today, and the first-hand admission fee is about HK $5353.41","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136951406","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月24日，朝聚眼科发布公告，公司于6月24日至6月29日招股；公司拟全球发售1.7093亿股股份，其中香港发售股份1709.3万股，国际发售股份1.53837亿股；每股发行价9.48-10.60港元","content":"<p>On June 24, Chaoju Ophthalmology issued an announcement that the company will issue an IPO from June 24 to June 29; The company plans to sell 170.93 million shares globally, including 17.093 million shares offered in Hong Kong and 153.837 million shares offered internationally; The issue price per share is 9.48-10.60 Hong Kong dollars, each lot is 500 shares, and the admission fee is about 5353.41 Hong Kong dollars; Haitong International and Huatai International are joint sponsors, and it is expected that the shares will be listed on the main board of the Stock Exchange on July 7.</p><p><b>Tiger Trade will open for subscription at 11:30 [</b><a href=\"https://www-web.itiger.com/mi/ipo/index/hk/listing\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Subscription entrance</b></a><b>】</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/396a841474a75b2709096e6774872273\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"763\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Subscription ladder:</b></p><p>There are 500 shares per lot, and the admission fee is HK $5,353.41.</p><p>The threshold for Group B is 500,000 shares, and the funds required for subscription are approximately HK $5,353,408.1.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ad211e1911379810ca70b4c49d2cfe8\" tg-width=\"1153\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The Group is a leading and nationally renowned ophthalmic medical service group in North China. According to the Frost & Sullivan Report, among private eye hospitals, the Group ranked first in Inner Mongolia, second in North China and fifth in China in terms of total revenue in 2020. China has a large and rapidly growing ophthalmic medical service market. According to the Frost & Sullivan Report, the size of China's ophthalmic medical service market increased from RMB 73 billion in 2015 to RMB 127.5 billion in 2019, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.0%, and is expected to further increase to RMB 223.1 billion in 2024; The size of the ophthalmic medical service market in North China increased from RMB 13.2 billion in 2015 to RMB 21.2 billion in 2019, with a compound annual growth rate of 12.5%, and is expected to further grow to RMB 33.7 billion in 2024; The size of the ophthalmic medical service market in Inner Mongolia increased from RMB1.1 billion in 2015 to RMB2 billion in 2019, representing a CAGR of 15.6%, and is expected to further grow to RMB3.3 billion in 2024. With the increasing population and the strong demand for ophthalmic medical services, the growth potential of the ophthalmic medical services market in China is expected to be huge. Leveraging on the Group's experience and market leadership in ophthalmic services, the Group believes that the Group is well positioned to seize the growing opportunities and benefit from the rapid expansion of China's ophthalmic services market.</p><p>During the Track Record Period, the Group experienced rapid growth. The Group's revenue increased by 13.0% from RMB 632.7 million in 2018 to RMB 714.7 million in 2019, and further increased by 11.1% to RMB 794.3 million in 2020. The group's net profit also increased significantly from RMB 29.2 million in 2018 to RMB 70.8 million in 2019, and further increased by 70.2% to RMB 120.5 million in 2020. In 2018, 2019 and 2020, the number of patient visits to the Group's hospitals was 638,650, 702,143 and 696,206, respectively, and the number of client visits to the optometry center was 73,935, 79,903 and 91,660, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b85516f9bf7cbda5d3618c2a26e58d7\" tg-width=\"957\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The Group has entered into a Cornerstone Investment Agreement with the Cornerstone Investor, pursuant to which the Cornerstone Investor has agreed to subscribe for, or procure its designated entity to subscribe for, a certain number of Offer Shares at the Offer Price. The cornerstone investors have agreed to subscribe for the relevant number of Offer Shares available at the Offer Price, totaling US $102 million or approximately HK $792 million. Calculated based on the offer price of HK $10.04 per share (i.e. the mid-point of the offer price range), assuming that the over-allotment option is not exercised, the total number of shares to be subscribed by cornerstone investors is 78.8395 million shares, accounting for approximately 46.12% of the offer shares and immediately following the completion of the global offering The total issued share capital is approximately 11.47%. Cornerstone investors include Wells Fargo Fund Management Limited, Gigantic Wealth Holdings Limited, Tongbai Capital (Hong Kong) Limited, and The Valliance Fund.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bec0f4980a5f1eb938ada0e1abe84825\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"629\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Assuming an offer price of HK $10.04 per share (the mid-point of the offer price range), and assuming that the over-allotment option is not exercised, the Group estimates that the net proceeds received from the global offering will be approximately HK $1,283.2 million. Among them, approximately 35.8% of the net proceeds from the global offering will be used to establish new hospitals and relocate, upgrade and decorate existing hospitals; Approximately 44.8% will be used to acquire hospitals in new markets with large population and relatively high demand for ophthalmic medical services when suitable opportunities arise; About 9.4% will be used to upgrade the Group's information technology system; And approximately 10.0% will be used for working capital and other general corporate purposes.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chaoju Ophthalmology will launch its IPO today, and the first-hand admission fee is about HK $5353.41</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChaoju Ophthalmology will launch its IPO today, and the first-hand admission fee is about HK $5353.41\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-24 09:16</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 24, Chaoju Ophthalmology issued an announcement that the company will issue an IPO from June 24 to June 29; The company plans to sell 170.93 million shares globally, including 17.093 million shares offered in Hong Kong and 153.837 million shares offered internationally; The issue price per share is 9.48-10.60 Hong Kong dollars, each lot is 500 shares, and the admission fee is about 5353.41 Hong Kong dollars; Haitong International and Huatai International are joint sponsors, and it is expected that the shares will be listed on the main board of the Stock Exchange on July 7.</p><p><b>Tiger Trade will open for subscription at 11:30 [</b><a href=\"https://www-web.itiger.com/mi/ipo/index/hk/listing\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Subscription entrance</b></a><b>】</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/396a841474a75b2709096e6774872273\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"763\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Subscription ladder:</b></p><p>There are 500 shares per lot, and the admission fee is HK $5,353.41.</p><p>The threshold for Group B is 500,000 shares, and the funds required for subscription are approximately HK $5,353,408.1.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ad211e1911379810ca70b4c49d2cfe8\" tg-width=\"1153\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The Group is a leading and nationally renowned ophthalmic medical service group in North China. According to the Frost & Sullivan Report, among private eye hospitals, the Group ranked first in Inner Mongolia, second in North China and fifth in China in terms of total revenue in 2020. China has a large and rapidly growing ophthalmic medical service market. According to the Frost & Sullivan Report, the size of China's ophthalmic medical service market increased from RMB 73 billion in 2015 to RMB 127.5 billion in 2019, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.0%, and is expected to further increase to RMB 223.1 billion in 2024; The size of the ophthalmic medical service market in North China increased from RMB 13.2 billion in 2015 to RMB 21.2 billion in 2019, with a compound annual growth rate of 12.5%, and is expected to further grow to RMB 33.7 billion in 2024; The size of the ophthalmic medical service market in Inner Mongolia increased from RMB1.1 billion in 2015 to RMB2 billion in 2019, representing a CAGR of 15.6%, and is expected to further grow to RMB3.3 billion in 2024. With the increasing population and the strong demand for ophthalmic medical services, the growth potential of the ophthalmic medical services market in China is expected to be huge. Leveraging on the Group's experience and market leadership in ophthalmic services, the Group believes that the Group is well positioned to seize the growing opportunities and benefit from the rapid expansion of China's ophthalmic services market.</p><p>During the Track Record Period, the Group experienced rapid growth. The Group's revenue increased by 13.0% from RMB 632.7 million in 2018 to RMB 714.7 million in 2019, and further increased by 11.1% to RMB 794.3 million in 2020. The group's net profit also increased significantly from RMB 29.2 million in 2018 to RMB 70.8 million in 2019, and further increased by 70.2% to RMB 120.5 million in 2020. In 2018, 2019 and 2020, the number of patient visits to the Group's hospitals was 638,650, 702,143 and 696,206, respectively, and the number of client visits to the optometry center was 73,935, 79,903 and 91,660, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b85516f9bf7cbda5d3618c2a26e58d7\" tg-width=\"957\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The Group has entered into a Cornerstone Investment Agreement with the Cornerstone Investor, pursuant to which the Cornerstone Investor has agreed to subscribe for, or procure its designated entity to subscribe for, a certain number of Offer Shares at the Offer Price. The cornerstone investors have agreed to subscribe for the relevant number of Offer Shares available at the Offer Price, totaling US $102 million or approximately HK $792 million. Calculated based on the offer price of HK $10.04 per share (i.e. the mid-point of the offer price range), assuming that the over-allotment option is not exercised, the total number of shares to be subscribed by cornerstone investors is 78.8395 million shares, accounting for approximately 46.12% of the offer shares and immediately following the completion of the global offering The total issued share capital is approximately 11.47%. Cornerstone investors include Wells Fargo Fund Management Limited, Gigantic Wealth Holdings Limited, Tongbai Capital (Hong Kong) Limited, and The Valliance Fund.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bec0f4980a5f1eb938ada0e1abe84825\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"629\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Assuming an offer price of HK $10.04 per share (the mid-point of the offer price range), and assuming that the over-allotment option is not exercised, the Group estimates that the net proceeds received from the global offering will be approximately HK $1,283.2 million. Among them, approximately 35.8% of the net proceeds from the global offering will be used to establish new hospitals and relocate, upgrade and decorate existing hospitals; Approximately 44.8% will be used to acquire hospitals in new markets with large population and relatively high demand for ophthalmic medical services when suitable opportunities arise; About 9.4% will be used to upgrade the Group's information technology system; And approximately 10.0% will be used for working capital and other general corporate purposes.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b69e234a63c2c0a69ccede7b0faaa18","relate_stocks":{"02219":"朝聚眼科"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136951406","content_text":"6月24日，朝聚眼科发布公告，公司于6月24日至6月29日招股；公司拟全球发售1.7093亿股股份，其中香港发售股份1709.3万股，国际发售股份1.53837亿股；每股发行价9.48-10.60港元，每手买卖单位500股，入场费约5353.41港元；海通国际及华泰国际为联席保荐人，预期股份将于7月7日于联交所主板挂牌上市。\nTiger Trade将于11:30开放申购【申购入口】\n\n申购阶梯：\n每手500股，入场费5353.41港元。\n乙组门槛为50万股，申购所需资金约5353408.1港元。\n\n集团是中国华北地区领先、全国知名的眼科医疗服务集团。根据弗若斯特沙利文报告，于民营眼科医院中，按2020年的收益总额计，集团在内蒙古排名第一、在中国华北地区排名第二及在中国排名第五。中国拥有一个庞大且快速成长的眼科医疗服务市场。根据弗若斯特沙利文报告，中国眼科医疗服务市场的规模从2015年的人民币730亿元增加至2019年的人民币1,275亿元，复合年增长率达15.0%，预计将进一步增至2024年的人民币2,231亿元；中国华北地区眼科医疗服务市场的规模从2015年的人民币132亿元增加至2019年的人民币212亿元，复合年增长率达12.5%，预计将进一步增长至2024年的人民币337亿元；内蒙古眼科医疗服务市场的规模由2015年的人民币11亿元增至2019年的人民币20亿元，复合年增长率达15.6%，预期将进一步增长至2024年的人民币33亿元。随着人口增加，加上眼科医疗服务需求殷切，预期中国眼科医疗服务市场的增长潜力庞大。凭藉集团于眼科服务的经验及市场领先优势，集团相信集团处于有利位置以把握不断增长的机遇，并从中国眼科服务市场的快速扩展中受惠。\n于往绩记录期间，集团迎来快速增长。集团的收益由2018年的人民币6.327亿元增加13.0%至2019年的人民币7.147亿元，并进一步增加11.1%至2020年的人民币7.943亿元。集团的纯利亦由2018年的人民币2920万元大幅增加至2019年的人民币7080万元，并进一步增加70.2%至2020年的人民币1.205亿元。于2018年、2019年及2020年，集团医院的患者就诊人次分别为638,650名、702,143名及696,206名，且视光中心的客户就诊人次分别为73,935名、79,903名及91,660名。\n\n集团已与基石投资者订立基石投资协议，据此，基石投资者已同意按发售价认购或促使其指定实体按发售价认购若干数目的发售股份。基石投资者已同意按发售价认购可认购有关数目的发售股份，总额为1.02亿美元或约7.92亿港元。按发售价每股10.04港元(即发售价范围中位数)计算，假设超额配股权不获行使，基石投资者将予认购的股份总数为7883.95万股，占发售股份约46.12%及紧随全球发售完成后已发行股本总额约11.47%。基石投资者包括富国基金管理有限公司、Gigantic Wealth Holdings Limited、通柏资本(香港)有限公司、及The Valliance Fund。\n\n假设发售价为每股10.04港元(即发售价范围中位数)，并假设超额配股权未获行使，集团估计收取的全球发售所得款项净额将约为12.832亿港元。其中，全球发售所得款项净额约35.8%将用于建立新医院以及搬迁、升级及装修现有医院；约44.8%将在出现合适机遇时，用于在人口庞大且对眼科医疗服务需求相对较高的新市场中收购医院；约9.4%将用于升级集团的信息技术系统；及约10.0%将用于营运资金及其他一般企业用途。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02219":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":745,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123149201,"gmtCreate":1624413416803,"gmtModify":1703835915196,"author":{"id":"3581983097481247","authorId":"3581983097481247","name":"无欲2057","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e1909dfac2a022786e0d074699d2f2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983097481247","authorIdStr":"3581983097481247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/123149201","repostId":"1109081443","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109081443","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624407786,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109081443?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 08:23","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Daily Youxian submits red herring prospectus, which has been oversubscribed","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109081443","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月23日讯，据接近IPO的市场人士消息，自更新招股书以来，每日优鲜$(MF)$赴美IPO已获得超额认购。每日优鲜更新招股书显示，其IPO定价为13-16美元/ADS，现有股东中金、腾讯、美国长线基金","content":"<p>On June 23, according to market sources close to the IPO, since the update of the prospectus, Daily Youxian<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">$(MF) $</a>The US IPO has been oversubscribed. The daily update prospectus of Youxian shows that its IPO is priced at US $13-16/ADS, and existing shareholders CICC, Tencent, US long-term funds Davis, Yuansheng, and Yuanjing have all subscribed.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Daily Youxian submits red herring prospectus, which has been oversubscribed</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDaily Youxian submits red herring prospectus, which has been oversubscribed\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-23 08:23</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 23, according to market sources close to the IPO, since the update of the prospectus, Daily Youxian<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">$(MF) $</a>The US IPO has been oversubscribed. The daily update prospectus of Youxian shows that its IPO is priced at US $13-16/ADS, and existing shareholders CICC, Tencent, US long-term funds Davis, Yuansheng, and Yuanjing have all subscribed.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26d35a88c8d9d9d46abd395d2bd24396","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109081443","content_text":"6月23日讯，据接近IPO的市场人士消息，自更新招股书以来，每日优鲜$(MF)$赴美IPO已获得超额认购。每日优鲜更新招股书显示，其IPO定价为13-16美元/ADS，现有股东中金、腾讯、美国长线基金Davis、元生、元璟均已认购。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1031,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123157762,"gmtCreate":1624413366556,"gmtModify":1703835912757,"author":{"id":"3581983097481247","authorId":"3581983097481247","name":"无欲2057","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e1909dfac2a022786e0d074699d2f2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983097481247","authorIdStr":"3581983097481247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/123157762","repostId":"1143868413","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143868413","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624411543,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1143868413?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 09:25","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Opening: Hang Seng Index rose 0.56%, pharmaceutical stocks rose across the board","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143868413","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月23日，港股主要指数高开，恒指涨0.56%报28468点，国指涨0.5%报10522点，恒生科技指数涨0.72%报7868点。盘面上，药品股全线高开， 德琪医药涨超3%，复星医药涨超2%；保险股、","content":"<p>On June 23, the main indexes of Hong Kong stocks opened higher. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.56% to 28,468 points, the State Index rose 0.5% to 10,522 points, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 0.72% to 7,868 points.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/689763a13fcb2f7853be1ab3c02f7163\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\">On the disk, pharmaceutical stocks opened higher across the board, and Antengene Pharmaceuticals rose more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600196\">Fosun Pharma</a>Up more than 2%; Insurance stocks, dairy products, catering stocks, high-speed rail infrastructure stocks, and property management stocks generally rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06186\">China Feihe</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">Haidilao</a>Opened more than 2% higher; Most large technology stocks rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>The group rose more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>、、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Meituan opened 1% higher, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Down 1.26%; Steel stocks, coal stocks, and sporting goods stocks generally fell.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opening: Hang Seng Index rose 0.56%, pharmaceutical stocks rose across the board</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpening: Hang Seng Index rose 0.56%, pharmaceutical stocks rose across the board\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-23 09:25</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 23, the main indexes of Hong Kong stocks opened higher. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.56% to 28,468 points, the State Index rose 0.5% to 10,522 points, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 0.72% to 7,868 points.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/689763a13fcb2f7853be1ab3c02f7163\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\">On the disk, pharmaceutical stocks opened higher across the board, and Antengene Pharmaceuticals rose more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600196\">Fosun Pharma</a>Up more than 2%; Insurance stocks, dairy products, catering stocks, high-speed rail infrastructure stocks, and property management stocks generally rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06186\">China Feihe</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">Haidilao</a>Opened more than 2% higher; Most large technology stocks rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>The group rose more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>、、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Meituan opened 1% higher, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Down 1.26%; Steel stocks, coal stocks, and sporting goods stocks generally fell.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b3b5e72649367d0aafd9bcbbca9bcd1","relate_stocks":{"513600":"恒生指数ETF南方","02833":"恒指ETF","HSI":"恒生指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143868413","content_text":"6月23日，港股主要指数高开，恒指涨0.56%报28468点，国指涨0.5%报10522点，恒生科技指数涨0.72%报7868点。盘面上，药品股全线高开， 德琪医药涨超3%，复星医药涨超2%；保险股、乳制品、餐饮股、高铁基建股、物管股普遍上涨，中国飞鹤、海底捞高开逾2%；大型科技股多数上涨，京东集团涨超2%，腾讯、、百度、美团高开1%，惟网易跌1.26%；钢铁股、煤炭股、体育用品股普跌。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513600":0.9,"MCHmain":0.9,"02833":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"HHImain":0.9,"MHImain":0.9,"HSImain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":681,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120217581,"gmtCreate":1624324580743,"gmtModify":1703833456555,"author":{"id":"3581983097481247","authorId":"3581983097481247","name":"无欲2057","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e1909dfac2a022786e0d074699d2f2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983097481247","authorIdStr":"3581983097481247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120217581","repostId":"2145035774","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1048,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164074615,"gmtCreate":1624163445337,"gmtModify":1703829928155,"author":{"id":"3581983097481247","authorId":"3581983097481247","name":"无欲2057","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e1909dfac2a022786e0d074699d2f2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983097481247","authorIdStr":"3581983097481247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"√","listText":"√","text":"√","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164074615","repostId":"2144706445","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":574,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162702120,"gmtCreate":1624074297460,"gmtModify":1703828281546,"author":{"id":"3581983097481247","authorId":"3581983097481247","name":"无欲2057","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e1909dfac2a022786e0d074699d2f2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983097481247","authorIdStr":"3581983097481247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/162702120","repostId":"2144088007","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144088007","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"豆虫财经，一级市场严肃财经媒体。创始人为中国VC/PE领域资深媒体人韦亚军，韦先生曾任职于知名第三方股权投资服务机构“ChinaVenture投中集团”，拥有数十万一级市场忠实读者。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"PE星球","id":"64","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfa256314ee44b7a936a419139ccb466"},"pubTimestamp":1624062900,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144088007?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-19 08:35","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Soul updates IPO prospectus: Tencent holds up to 49.9% of the shares and 25.7% of the voting rights","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144088007","media":"PE星球","summary":"更新后的招股书显示，Soul将在此次IPO交易中发售1320万股美国存托股票，每2股美国存托股票代表3股A类普通股。招股书显示，在截至2020年12月31日的整年，Soul的营收为4.98亿元，2019年同期为7070万元，同比增长604.3%；Soul的总成本与支出为9.87亿元，同比增长165.09%；经营亏损4.89亿元，同比增长62.1%；净亏损4.88亿元，同比增长62.9%。截至2021年第一季度，Soul的月活跃用户为3320万，相比2020年同期增长109.0%；平均日活跃用户为910万，相比2020年同期增长94.4%。","content":"<p>According to reports, the social platform Soul submitted an updated IPO (initial public offering) listing application documents to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) today, setting the issue price range between US $13 and US $15 per American depositary share.</p><p>The updated prospectus shows that Soul will sell 13.2 million American depositary shares in this IPO transaction, and every 2 American depositary shares represent 3 Class A ordinary shares.</p><p>In addition, Soul has granted a 30-day over-allotment option to the underwriters, authorizing them to purchase up to an additional 1.98 million American depositary shares at the IPO price less underwriting discounts and commissions. If the underwriters fully exercise the over-allotment option, Soul will raise up to $227.7 million in the deal, based on the upper end of the offering price range of $15 per ADS.</p><p>Soul plans to list on the Nasdaq Global Market under the stock symbol \"SSR\", which is sponsored by<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEF\">Jefferies</a>Group, Bank of America Securities and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Served as the lead underwriter, Guangyuan Capital, Futu and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">Tiger Securities</a>Acted as an associate underwriter.</p><p>According to the prospectus, for the whole year ended December 31, 2020, Soul's revenue was 498 million yuan, compared with 70.7 million yuan in the same period in 2019, a year-on-year increase of 604.3%; Soul's total costs and expenditures were 987 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 165.09%; Operating loss was 489 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.1%; The net loss was 488 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.9%.</p><p>In the previous quarter ended March 31, 2021, Soul's revenue was 238 million yuan (approximately US $36.36 million), compared with 66.21 million yuan in the same period in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 259.8%; Soul's total costs and expenditures were 621 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 419.98%; The operating loss was 382 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 619.38%; The net loss was 382 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 624.71%.</p><p>As of the first quarter of 2021, Soul's monthly active users were 33.2 million, an increase of 109.0% compared to the same period in 2020; The average daily active users were 9.1 million, an increase of 94.4% compared to the same period in 2020. In 2019 and 2020, Soul's average monthly active users were 11.5 million and 2.08 million, respectively; In 2019 and 2020, average daily active users were 3.3 million and 5.9 million, respectively.</p><p>In 2019 and 2020, the average number of monthly paying users was 268,900 and 929,300 respectively. The average number of monthly paying users of the application in the first quarter of 2021 reached 1.5445 million, of which the number of paying users in March was 1.7 million; In addition, the average monthly user payment rate of the application increased from 2.3% in 2019 to 4.5% in 2020, and continued to rise to 4.8% in the first quarter of 2021; The average monthly income per user was 21.9 yuan and 43.5 yuan respectively, reaching 48.6 yuan in the first quarter of this year.</p><p>In terms of ownership structure, after the successful listing, Soul management held 33.2% of the shares, of which Zhang Lu, the company's founder and CEO, held 48,607,303 ordinary shares, accounting for 32.0%, and the voting rights ratio was 65.0%; Director and chief technology officer Ming Tao holds 1,863,578 common shares, accounting for 1.2%, and the voting rights ratio is 0.6%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Through Image Frame Investment (HK) Limited, it holds 75,807,200 Class A ordinary shares of Soul, holding up to 49.9% of the shares and 25.7% of the voting rights.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbf5a87480824f9a9caec9b914a91c30\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"251\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">According to public information on Soul's official website, Soul is a product design based on interest maps and gamified gameplay, and belongs to a virtual social network for a new generation of young people. Founded in 2016, Soul is dedicated to making there are no lonely people in the world. Soul App uses the relationship precipitation and retention of unknown users in the real world on the platform as positive samples, and uses machine learning to recommend high-quality new relationships that users may have based on users' social portraits and interest maps. Let every individual who comes to Soul be quickly recommended to some people and content closest to themselves in high-dimensional space, start communication at low cost, and obtain high-quality relationships.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Soul updates IPO prospectus: Tencent holds up to 49.9% of the shares and 25.7% of the voting rights</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSoul updates IPO prospectus: Tencent holds up to 49.9% of the shares and 25.7% of the voting rights\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/64\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfa256314ee44b7a936a419139ccb466);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">PE星球 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-19 08:35</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>According to reports, the social platform Soul submitted an updated IPO (initial public offering) listing application documents to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) today, setting the issue price range between US $13 and US $15 per American depositary share.</p><p>The updated prospectus shows that Soul will sell 13.2 million American depositary shares in this IPO transaction, and every 2 American depositary shares represent 3 Class A ordinary shares.</p><p>In addition, Soul has granted a 30-day over-allotment option to the underwriters, authorizing them to purchase up to an additional 1.98 million American depositary shares at the IPO price less underwriting discounts and commissions. If the underwriters fully exercise the over-allotment option, Soul will raise up to $227.7 million in the deal, based on the upper end of the offering price range of $15 per ADS.</p><p>Soul plans to list on the Nasdaq Global Market under the stock symbol \"SSR\", which is sponsored by<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEF\">Jefferies</a>Group, Bank of America Securities and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Served as the lead underwriter, Guangyuan Capital, Futu and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">Tiger Securities</a>Acted as an associate underwriter.</p><p>According to the prospectus, for the whole year ended December 31, 2020, Soul's revenue was 498 million yuan, compared with 70.7 million yuan in the same period in 2019, a year-on-year increase of 604.3%; Soul's total costs and expenditures were 987 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 165.09%; Operating loss was 489 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.1%; The net loss was 488 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.9%.</p><p>In the previous quarter ended March 31, 2021, Soul's revenue was 238 million yuan (approximately US $36.36 million), compared with 66.21 million yuan in the same period in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 259.8%; Soul's total costs and expenditures were 621 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 419.98%; The operating loss was 382 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 619.38%; The net loss was 382 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 624.71%.</p><p>As of the first quarter of 2021, Soul's monthly active users were 33.2 million, an increase of 109.0% compared to the same period in 2020; The average daily active users were 9.1 million, an increase of 94.4% compared to the same period in 2020. In 2019 and 2020, Soul's average monthly active users were 11.5 million and 2.08 million, respectively; In 2019 and 2020, average daily active users were 3.3 million and 5.9 million, respectively.</p><p>In 2019 and 2020, the average number of monthly paying users was 268,900 and 929,300 respectively. The average number of monthly paying users of the application in the first quarter of 2021 reached 1.5445 million, of which the number of paying users in March was 1.7 million; In addition, the average monthly user payment rate of the application increased from 2.3% in 2019 to 4.5% in 2020, and continued to rise to 4.8% in the first quarter of 2021; The average monthly income per user was 21.9 yuan and 43.5 yuan respectively, reaching 48.6 yuan in the first quarter of this year.</p><p>In terms of ownership structure, after the successful listing, Soul management held 33.2% of the shares, of which Zhang Lu, the company's founder and CEO, held 48,607,303 ordinary shares, accounting for 32.0%, and the voting rights ratio was 65.0%; Director and chief technology officer Ming Tao holds 1,863,578 common shares, accounting for 1.2%, and the voting rights ratio is 0.6%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Through Image Frame Investment (HK) Limited, it holds 75,807,200 Class A ordinary shares of Soul, holding up to 49.9% of the shares and 25.7% of the voting rights.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbf5a87480824f9a9caec9b914a91c30\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"251\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">According to public information on Soul's official website, Soul is a product design based on interest maps and gamified gameplay, and belongs to a virtual social network for a new generation of young people. Founded in 2016, Soul is dedicated to making there are no lonely people in the world. Soul App uses the relationship precipitation and retention of unknown users in the real world on the platform as positive samples, and uses machine learning to recommend high-quality new relationships that users may have based on users' social portraits and interest maps. Let every individual who comes to Soul be quickly recommended to some people and content closest to themselves in high-dimensional space, start communication at low cost, and obtain high-quality relationships.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6859f4502cc56f4426b0a08e616b768","relate_stocks":{"00700":"腾讯控股","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144088007","content_text":"据报道，社交平台Soul今日向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交了更新版IPO（首次公开招股）上市申请文件，将发行价区间设定在每股美国存托股票13美元至15美元之间。\n更新后的招股书显示，Soul将在此次IPO交易中发售1320万股美国存托股票，每2股美国存托股票代表3股A类普通股。\n此外，Soul还已向承销商授予一项30天的超额配售选择权，授权承销商以IPO价格减去承销折扣和佣金的价格额外购买最多198万股美国存托股票。若承销商完全行使超额配售选择权，则按每股美国存托股票15美元的发行价区间上限计算，Soul将在此次交易中筹集最多2.277亿美元资金。\nSoul计划在纳斯达克全球市场挂牌上市，股票代码为“SSR”，由摩根士丹利、杰富瑞集团、美银证券与中金公司担任主承销商，光源资本、富途和老虎证券担任副承销商。\n招股书显示，在截至2020年12月31日的整年，Soul的营收为4.98亿元，2019年同期为7070万元，同比增长604.3%；Soul的总成本与支出为9.87亿元，同比增长165.09%；经营亏损4.89亿元，同比增长62.1%；净亏损4.88亿元，同比增长62.9%。\n在截至2021年3月31日的上一季度，Soul的营收为2.38亿元（约3636万美元），2020年同期为6621万元，同比增长259.8%；Soul的总成本与支出为6.21亿元，同比增长419.98%；经营亏损3.82亿元，同比增长619.38%；净亏损3.82亿元，同比增长624.71%。\n截至2021年第一季度，Soul的月活跃用户为3320万，相比2020年同期增长109.0%；平均日活跃用户为910万，相比2020年同期增长94.4%。2019年和2020年，Soul的平均每月活跃用户分别为1150万和208万；2019年和2020年，平均日活跃用户分别为330万和590万。\n2019年和2020年，平均每月付费用户数量分别为26.89万和92.93万，该应用2021年一季度的月均付费用户数量达到154.45万，其中，3月的付费用户数量为170万；此外，该应用月均用户付费率从2019年的2.3%增长至2020年的4.5%，2021年一季度持续上涨至4.8%；每月每平均用户收入分别为21.9元和43.5元，今年一季度达到48.6元。\n股权结构方面，成功上市后，Soul管理层持股33.2%，其中，公司创始人、首席执行官张璐持有48607303份普通股，占比32.0%，投票权比例65.0%；董事、首席技术官Ming Tao持有1863578份普通股，占比1.2%，投票权比例0.6%；腾讯通过Image Frame Investment (HK) Limited持有Soul 7580.72万股A类普通股，持股高达49.9%，拥有25.7%的投票权。据Soul官方网站的公开资料显示，Soul是基于兴趣图谱和游戏化玩法的产品设计，属于新一代年轻人的虚拟社交网络。成立于2016年，Soul 致力于让天下没有孤独的人。Soul App用现实世界中不相识的用户在平台上的关系沉淀和留存为正样本，基于用户的社交画像和兴趣图谱，通过机器学习来推荐用户可能会产生的高质量的新关系。让每一个来到Soul的个体都可以被快速推荐到一些高维空间距离自己最近的人和内容，低成本地开启交流，获得高质量的关系。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QNETCN":0.9,"TCEHY":0.9,"00700":0.9,"SSR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":984,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":809362047,"gmtCreate":1627348664789,"gmtModify":1703488055185,"author":{"id":"3581983097481247","authorId":"3581983097481247","name":"无欲2057","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e1909dfac2a022786e0d074699d2f2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983097481247","authorIdStr":"3581983097481247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809362047","repostId":"2154684559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2154684559","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627345000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2154684559?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-27 08:16","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Antitrust upgrade! The EU is eyeing two Google services again, requiring rectification within 2 months","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2154684559","media":"新浪科技","summary":"法国对谷歌开出2.2亿欧元罚单新浪科技讯 北京时间7月26日晚间消息，据报道，欧盟委员会和欧盟消费者当局今日表示，谷歌要在两2个月的时间内，对其航班和酒店搜索服务进行调整，并解释如何对搜索结果进行排名，否则将面临制裁。长期以来，谷歌一直面临世界各地反垄断执法者和消费者团体的审查。之前，谷歌已经有三项服务遭到欧盟的发垄断罚款，罚金高达数十亿美元。","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b5818c36470cf9336d8469538d317a8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Three enterprises complained<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>！ France fines Google 220 million euros</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/557b605849471e852d88d2600232a3ed\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">SINA</a>On the evening of July 26th, Beijing time, it was reported that the European Commission and EU consumer authorities said today that Google will adjust its flight and hotel search services within two or two months, and explain how to rank the search results, otherwise it will face sanctions.</p><p>Google has long faced scrutiny from antitrust enforcers and consumer groups around the world. Previously, three of Google's services had been fined by the European Union for monopoly, with fines amounting to billions of dollars. The latest dissatisfaction focuses on the prices of Google Flights and Google Hotels.</p><p>Today, the European Commission and EU consumer authorities said in a joint statement that the final price of these products should include fees or taxes that can be calculated in advance, and the reference price used to calculate promotional discounts should be clearly identifiable.</p><p>Didier Reynders, EU Justice Commissioner, said: \"When using search engines to plan holidays, EU consumers cannot be misled. We need to empower consumers to make choices based on transparent and fair information.\"</p><p>The aforementioned agencies also asked Google to amend the standard terms of Google Store, the Google App Store, because some cases have shown that traders have more rights than consumers. If Google's rectification proposals are insufficient, the above-mentioned agencies will further discuss this issue with Google and may impose sanctions.</p><p>In response, Google said in a statement: \"We welcome this dialogue and are working closely with consumer protection agencies and the European Commission to see how we can make improvements that benefit users and provide higher transparency.\"</p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Antitrust upgrade! The EU is eyeing two Google services again, requiring rectification within 2 months</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAntitrust upgrade! The EU is eyeing two Google services again, requiring rectification within 2 months\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-27 08:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b5818c36470cf9336d8469538d317a8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Three enterprises complained<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>！ France fines Google 220 million euros</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/557b605849471e852d88d2600232a3ed\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">SINA</a>On the evening of July 26th, Beijing time, it was reported that the European Commission and EU consumer authorities said today that Google will adjust its flight and hotel search services within two or two months, and explain how to rank the search results, otherwise it will face sanctions.</p><p>Google has long faced scrutiny from antitrust enforcers and consumer groups around the world. Previously, three of Google's services had been fined by the European Union for monopoly, with fines amounting to billions of dollars. The latest dissatisfaction focuses on the prices of Google Flights and Google Hotels.</p><p>Today, the European Commission and EU consumer authorities said in a joint statement that the final price of these products should include fees or taxes that can be calculated in advance, and the reference price used to calculate promotional discounts should be clearly identifiable.</p><p>Didier Reynders, EU Justice Commissioner, said: \"When using search engines to plan holidays, EU consumers cannot be misled. We need to empower consumers to make choices based on transparent and fair information.\"</p><p>The aforementioned agencies also asked Google to amend the standard terms of Google Store, the Google App Store, because some cases have shown that traders have more rights than consumers. If Google's rectification proposals are insufficient, the above-mentioned agencies will further discuss this issue with Google and may impose sanctions.</p><p>In response, Google said in a statement: \"We welcome this dialogue and are working closely with consumer protection agencies and the European Commission to see how we can make improvements that benefit users and provide higher transparency.\"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2021-07-26/doc-ikqciyzk7783660.shtml\">新浪科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/557b605849471e852d88d2600232a3ed","relate_stocks":{"09086":"华夏纳指-U","GOOGL":"谷歌A","GOOG":"谷歌","03086":"华夏纳指","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2021-07-26/doc-ikqciyzk7783660.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2154684559","content_text":"三家企业投诉谷歌！法国对谷歌开出2.2亿欧元罚单\n\n新浪科技讯 北京时间7月26日晚间消息，据报道，欧盟委员会和欧盟消费者当局今日表示，谷歌要在两2个月的时间内，对其航班和酒店搜索服务进行调整，并解释如何对搜索结果进行排名，否则将面临制裁。\n长期以来，谷歌一直面临世界各地反垄断执法者和消费者团体的审查。之前，谷歌已经有三项服务遭到欧盟的发垄断罚款，罚金高达数十亿美元。而最新的不满集中在Google Flights（航班搜索）和Google Hotels（酒店搜索）两项服务的价格上。\n今日，欧盟委员会和欧盟消费者当局在一份联合声明中称，这些产品的最终价格应该包括可以提前计算的费用或税金，而用于计算促销折扣的参考价格应该是明确可识别的。\n欧盟司法专员迪迪埃·雷恩德斯（Didier Reynders）称：“在使用搜索引擎筹划假期时，欧盟消费者不能被误导。我们需要赋予消费者权力，让他们基于透明和公正的信息做出选择。”\n上述机构还要求谷歌修改谷歌应用商店Google Store的标准条款，因为一些案例表明，交易商比消费者拥有更多的权利。如果谷歌的整改建议不够充分，上述机构将与谷歌进一步讨论这一问题，并可能实施制裁。\n对此，谷歌在一份声明中表示：“我们欢迎这次对话，并正与消费者保护机构和欧盟委员会密切合作，看看我们如何能做出有利于用户的改进，并提供更高的透明度。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09086":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"03086":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3862,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162706592,"gmtCreate":1624074274616,"gmtModify":1703828280197,"author":{"id":"3581983097481247","authorId":"3581983097481247","name":"无欲2057","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e1909dfac2a022786e0d074699d2f2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983097481247","authorIdStr":"3581983097481247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/162706592","repostId":"2144708997","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":712,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149185285,"gmtCreate":1625709458447,"gmtModify":1703746837064,"author":{"id":"3581983097481247","authorId":"3581983097481247","name":"无欲2057","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e1909dfac2a022786e0d074699d2f2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983097481247","authorIdStr":"3581983097481247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/149185285","repostId":"1114715564","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3079,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126780976,"gmtCreate":1624584628395,"gmtModify":1703840953555,"author":{"id":"3581983097481247","authorId":"3581983097481247","name":"无欲2057","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e1909dfac2a022786e0d074699d2f2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983097481247","authorIdStr":"3581983097481247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/126780976","repostId":"1102925117","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102925117","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624582814,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102925117?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-25 09:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"XPeng Automobile-W will launch its IPO today, and the first-hand admission fee is about HK $18,181.39","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102925117","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月25日，小鹏汽车-W发布公告，公司于6月25日至6月30日招股；拟全球发售8500万股股份，其中香港发售股份425万股，国际发售股份8075万股，另有15%超额配股权；每股发行价不超过180港元，","content":"<p>June 25th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">XPeng Motor-W</a>Announced that the company will issue an IPO from June 25th to June 30th; It plans to sell 85 million shares globally, including 4.25 million shares offered in Hong Kong, 80.75 million shares offered internationally, and a 15% over-allotment option; The issue price per share does not exceed HK $180, each lot of trading unit is 100 shares, and the admission fee is about HK $18,181.39; The Shares are expected to be listed on the Main Board of the Stock Exchange on July 7.</p><p><b>Tiger Trade will open for subscription at 11:30 [</b><a href=\"https://www-web.itiger.com/mi/ipo/index/hk/listing\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Subscription entrance</b></a><b>】</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e2905fbe978b70a1fadc57bfb9804ec\" tg-width=\"891\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Subscription ladder:</p><p>There are 100 shares per lot, and the admission fee is HK $18,181.39.</p><p>The threshold for Group B is 30,000 shares, and the funds required for subscription are approximately HK $5,454,415.8.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8dafe8d708afb61e06e25e0b275bf27\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Founded in 2015, XPeng Motors has developed into the country's leading smart electric vehicle company, listed on the New York Stock Exchange in August 2020. XPeng Motor is engaged in the design, research and development, manufacturing and marketing of smart electric vehicles in the PRC. According to IHS Markit, as of the Latest Practicable Date, the company is the only automobile company in China that independently develops full-stack autonomous driving technology and applies the software to mass-produced vehicles. The company is building a rapidly expanding and diversified portfolio of attractive smart electric vehicle models to meet the growing demand for smart electric vehicles and the differentiated needs of its broad customer base.</p><p>As of 2021Q1, XPeng Automobile has 178 sales stores and 61 service centers nationwide, covering 70 cities, and most of the stores are located in shopping malls. In terms of charging facility network layout, as of 2021Q1, there are 172 XPeng brand super charging stations across the country, covering 60 cities. The company offers a free charging plan to eligible car owners, and by the end of March, the plan has covered more than 140 cities.</p><p>In terms of financial data, the company achieved significant growth and strong operating results during the Track Record Period. From 2018 to 2020, the company's total revenue increased from 9.706 million yuan to 5.844 billion yuan. With strong revenue growth, the company's gross profit margin increased from (24.3%) in 2018 to 4.6% in 2020, turning positive. In the first quarter of 2021, the company recorded total revenue of 450 million yuan, net loss of 120 million yuan, and gross profit margin of 11.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/853e033a96dad5cd098377abcd2fede8\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of fund-raising purposes, based on the upper limit of the offer price of HK $180, the IPO is expected to receive net proceeds of approximately HK $15.039 billion from the global offering (after deducting underwriting commissions and other estimated expenses related to the global offering). The company intends to use the net proceeds from the share offer for the following purposes: approximately 45% is expected to be used to expand the company's product portfolio and develop more advanced technologies; About 35% is expected to be used to accelerate the company's business expansion by enhancing the company's brand awareness, acquiring customers through omni-channel marketing strategies, and increasing sales and service coverage in domestic and international markets; Approximately 10% is expected to be used to improve production capacity, including expanding production capacity, upgrading production facilities and developing production technology; Approximately 10% is expected to be used for general corporate purposes, including working capital.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>XPeng Automobile-W will launch its IPO today, and the first-hand admission fee is about HK $18,181.39</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXPeng Automobile-W will launch its IPO today, and the first-hand admission fee is about HK $18,181.39\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-25 09:00</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>June 25th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">XPeng Motor-W</a>Announced that the company will issue an IPO from June 25th to June 30th; It plans to sell 85 million shares globally, including 4.25 million shares offered in Hong Kong, 80.75 million shares offered internationally, and a 15% over-allotment option; The issue price per share does not exceed HK $180, each lot of trading unit is 100 shares, and the admission fee is about HK $18,181.39; The Shares are expected to be listed on the Main Board of the Stock Exchange on July 7.</p><p><b>Tiger Trade will open for subscription at 11:30 [</b><a href=\"https://www-web.itiger.com/mi/ipo/index/hk/listing\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Subscription entrance</b></a><b>】</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e2905fbe978b70a1fadc57bfb9804ec\" tg-width=\"891\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Subscription ladder:</p><p>There are 100 shares per lot, and the admission fee is HK $18,181.39.</p><p>The threshold for Group B is 30,000 shares, and the funds required for subscription are approximately HK $5,454,415.8.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8dafe8d708afb61e06e25e0b275bf27\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Founded in 2015, XPeng Motors has developed into the country's leading smart electric vehicle company, listed on the New York Stock Exchange in August 2020. XPeng Motor is engaged in the design, research and development, manufacturing and marketing of smart electric vehicles in the PRC. According to IHS Markit, as of the Latest Practicable Date, the company is the only automobile company in China that independently develops full-stack autonomous driving technology and applies the software to mass-produced vehicles. The company is building a rapidly expanding and diversified portfolio of attractive smart electric vehicle models to meet the growing demand for smart electric vehicles and the differentiated needs of its broad customer base.</p><p>As of 2021Q1, XPeng Automobile has 178 sales stores and 61 service centers nationwide, covering 70 cities, and most of the stores are located in shopping malls. In terms of charging facility network layout, as of 2021Q1, there are 172 XPeng brand super charging stations across the country, covering 60 cities. The company offers a free charging plan to eligible car owners, and by the end of March, the plan has covered more than 140 cities.</p><p>In terms of financial data, the company achieved significant growth and strong operating results during the Track Record Period. From 2018 to 2020, the company's total revenue increased from 9.706 million yuan to 5.844 billion yuan. With strong revenue growth, the company's gross profit margin increased from (24.3%) in 2018 to 4.6% in 2020, turning positive. In the first quarter of 2021, the company recorded total revenue of 450 million yuan, net loss of 120 million yuan, and gross profit margin of 11.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/853e033a96dad5cd098377abcd2fede8\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of fund-raising purposes, based on the upper limit of the offer price of HK $180, the IPO is expected to receive net proceeds of approximately HK $15.039 billion from the global offering (after deducting underwriting commissions and other estimated expenses related to the global offering). The company intends to use the net proceeds from the share offer for the following purposes: approximately 45% is expected to be used to expand the company's product portfolio and develop more advanced technologies; About 35% is expected to be used to accelerate the company's business expansion by enhancing the company's brand awareness, acquiring customers through omni-channel marketing strategies, and increasing sales and service coverage in domestic and international markets; Approximately 10% is expected to be used to improve production capacity, including expanding production capacity, upgrading production facilities and developing production technology; Approximately 10% is expected to be used for general corporate purposes, including working capital.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a7cf240033f083a329240e6179df017","relate_stocks":{"09868":"小鹏汽车-W","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102925117","content_text":"6月25日，小鹏汽车-W发布公告，公司于6月25日至6月30日招股；拟全球发售8500万股股份，其中香港发售股份425万股，国际发售股份8075万股，另有15%超额配股权；每股发行价不超过180港元，每手买卖单位100股，入场费约18181.39港元；预期股份将于7月7日于联交所主板挂牌上市。\nTiger Trade将于11:30开放申购【申购入口】\n\n申购阶梯：\n每手100股，入场费18181.39港元。\n乙组门槛为3万股，申购所需资金约5454415.8港元。\n\n小鹏汽车成立于2015年，目前已发展成中国领先的智能电动汽车公司，于2020年8月在纽交所上市。小鹏汽车在中国从事智能电动汽车的设计、研发、制造及营销。根据IHS Markit的数据，截至最后实际可行日期，公司是中国唯一一家自主开发全栈式自动驾驶技术，并在量产汽车上应用该软件的汽车公司。公司正在打造一个快速扩展、多元化的具有吸引力的智能电动汽车车型组合，以满足智能电动汽车日益增长的需求以及广大客户群的差异化需求。\n截至2021Q1，小鹏汽车全国销售门店达178家，服务中心达61家，覆盖70个城市，绝大多数门店均位于购物中心。充电设施网络布局方面，截至2021Q1，全国共有172座小鹏品牌超级充电站，覆盖60个城市。公司向符合条件的车主提供免费充电计划，截至3月底，该计划已覆盖超过140个城市。\n财务数据方面，于往绩记录期间，公司实现了显著的增长及强劲的经营业绩。2018年至2020年，公司总收入由970.6万元增长至58.44亿元。随着收入的强劲增长，公司毛利率从2018年的(24.3%)增长至2020年的4.6%，实现转正。2021年一季度，公司录得总收入4.50亿元，净亏损1.20亿元，毛利率达到11.2%。\n\n筹资用途方面，以发售价的上限180港元计算，此次IPO预计自全球发售收取所得款项净额约150.39亿港元（经扣除包销佣金及与全球发售有关的其他估计开支）。公司拟将股份发售所得款项净额用于以下用途：约45%预期将用于拓展公司的产品组合及开发更先进的技术；约35%预期将用于通过提升公司的品牌认知度，借助全渠道营销策略获取客户，以及在国内及国际市场增加销售及服务覆盖，来加速公司的业务扩张；约10%预期将用于提升生产能力，包括扩大产能、升级生产设施和开发生产技术；约10%预期将用于一般公司用途，包括用作运营资金。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09868":0.9,"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2828,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128325507,"gmtCreate":1624502741609,"gmtModify":1703838580293,"author":{"id":"3581983097481247","authorId":"3581983097481247","name":"无欲2057","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e1909dfac2a022786e0d074699d2f2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983097481247","authorIdStr":"3581983097481247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/128325507","repostId":"1136429303","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136429303","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624502224,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1136429303?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-24 10:37","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"A-shares have suffered in the past 10 years and will be much better in the next 10 years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136429303","media":"新财富","summary":"核心观点：\n1、经济压力对经济、心理、行为的影响，降低了承担风险的意愿。一段时间经济增速更低，利率更低，中央银行关注焦点更多在货币上而不是通胀上面。\n2、长期问题：边际资本报酬递减，这与日韩历史进程是","content":"<p><b>Core views:</b></p><p>1. The impact of economic pressure on economy, psychology and behavior reduces the willingness to take risks. For a period of time, the economic growth rate was lower, interest rates were lower, and the central bank focused more on currency than inflation.</p><p>2. Long-term problem: The marginal return on capital is diminishing, which is very close to the historical process of Japan and South Korea, and corresponds to the continuous decline of the return on capital.</p><p>3. Compared with other countries, the decline of long-term returns is positively correlated with the decline of interest rate center, while the opposite is true in China. China's interest rate rose instead of falling during the transition period. Correspondingly, at the micro level, all profits were eaten by interest and equity profits were eroded.</p><p>4. The reason for the inflated high interest rate is that the leverage ratio has risen too fast (the investment rate and savings rate have declined slightly, which is not the core factor). The large-scale financing of government departments has weaker financial constraints, which has pushed up the interest rate level and squeezed out private investment, driven by political achievements rather than investment returns.</p><p>5. There is a long-term downward trend in interest rates (as long as inflation expectations are not so high, nominal interest rates will also fall), and superimposed precautionary savings will also inhibit further rises in interest rates.</p><p>Views on A-shares: In the past, China's interest rate level was unreasonably high, and the return on capital rate dropped again, so A-shares will always be young and will always be 3,000 points. But the next 5-10 years of abnormal interest rate rises will come to an end. Looking at the 10-year Treasury Bond, it will fall to 2% in the future. This will greatly affect the equity market. The past 10 years have been suffering, and the next 10 years will be much better.</p><p><b>Here is the text:</b></p><p>In the past year and a half, the global economy has suffered a sudden impact from the new crown, and economic and financial activities have suffered severe damage and disruption. We seem safe to say that with vaccination, we are making more progress and more comfortable living with the virus. With defensive barriers erected, economic recovery is in sight.</p><p>The financial market has turned its attention to the post-epidemic era and begun to pay attention to changes in the prices of various financial assets.</p><p>Compared with before the outbreak of the epidemic in 2019, will there be systematic differences in financial asset pricing?</p><p>Human history has often encountered disasters, and COVID-19 pandemic is the worst epidemic in nearly a hundred years.</p><p>Financial markets are already considering what will happen after the economy fully recovers. The question to be asked is whether the disaster itself will have long-term effects on human psychology and behavior after the disaster has passed.</p><p>Combined with some historical experience analysis, it can be generally said that from the perspective of economic behavior, it will have two long-term effects on our lives.</p><p>First, compared with before the disaster, people's willingness and ability to accept risks will decrease, and they are unwilling to take radical actions.</p><p>Second, the epidemic has had a serious impact on lives and property, and millions of people around the world will eventually lose their lives. The stock of capital has also been greatly impacted, and many enterprises have closed down. More importantly, normal investment activities have stopped. Investment activity in major economies has all experienced sharp declines. A decline in population means a decline in human resources. It can be said that the supply capacity of the entire economy will be relatively low even after the epidemic is over. First, many enterprises have disappeared, and second, the production activities of many enterprises cannot be carried out normally. All this determines that it is difficult for the economic supply capacity to recover quickly.</p><p>China brought the epidemic under control in the middle of last year, and its economic life recovered rapidly in August last year at the latest. It has been a year since then. Although transnational tourism and other activities have not returned to normal, most activities have returned to normal.</p><p>Studying the performance of China's economy will help us understand the economic performance after the epidemic and better understand the changes in financial asset pricing.</p><p>The first is to study the savings behavior of residents' departments. Throughout the epidemic, residents' precautionary savings have systematically increased, residents have become more conservative, and residents have become more anxious.</p><p>In the first and second quarters of last year, the savings rate rose abnormally by 6 percentage points, which was abnormally large. The possible reason is that social isolation makes many consumption behaviors impossible to complete. Many consumer funds are passively saved. As consumption behavior cannot be unfolded, passive savings increase.</p><p>How much was passive savings and how much was anxiety savings in the first and second quarters of last year? It's not easy to tell. Europe and the United States are still in anxiety. The economy basically began to be normal in the third quarter of last year. In the fourth quarter of last year and the first and second quarters of this year, there should be not much passive savings in the economy, but it still increased by 1-2 points. This part should be the increase of long-term savings. Passive savings should have 4 points.</p><p><b>Where did the 4-point passive savings go?</b></p><p>First, during the social isolation period, it is saved up and spent when the social isolation is over. Second, part of the savings buy a house, which will not be converted into consumption for a long time.</p><p>Where these passive savings will go is not very easy to tell.</p><p>The situation in China shows that these passive savings are not quickly converted into immediate consumption. If it is quickly converted into consumption, the changing trend of precautionary savings in the second and third quarters of last year is very smooth, and it is somewhat rising.</p><p>The passive savings accumulated in the United States is amazing, and the U.S. government has issued a lot of subsidies. After the social isolation is lifted, will the passive savings obtained by the United States be released immediately? If so, the United States will soon face severe inflationary pressure. However, judging from the situation in China, passive savings will not be consumed soon, and the fear of inflation may be filtered.</p><p><b>The impact of rising savings rates?</b></p><p>If everyone doesn't spend, then economic activity will shrink. Even if China's precautionary savings growth is estimated by 2 points, regardless of the multiplier effect, the impact on China's economic growth should be 1 point. Originally, China's growth rate should have been 6%, but it should actually be 5%. The current growth rate is more than 5%, thanks to strong exports.</p><p>The growth of consumer spending of Chinese residents, which was about 6% before the epidemic, has stabilized at 3% in the past few quarters, which has dropped by half compared to before the epidemic.</p><p>Manufacturing investment and private investment activities have been inactive for a long time. Before the epidemic, they basically remained above 0. After the epidemic, after excluding inflation factors, they were all below 0.</p><p>It can be seen that people are more reluctant to take risks, and the impact on the economic aggregate should be 1 point. If exports decline next year, economic growth may be lower than expected.</p><p>The good news is that human beings are essentially optimistic species. Sooner or later, human beings will forget the pain. The bad news is that we don't know when this turning point will happen, maybe at the end of next year, three years or five years from now. We can only know that the more serious the crisis is, the longer the impact will last, and this time it will not pass soon. The epidemic has caused great damage to production capacity. This inhibitory factor is also clearly reflected in the data.</p><p>Looking at the rebound after the economic shock in this century, before 2013, for every point of economic growth rebound, inflation will increase by 0.6. This resilience reached 2.4 in 2016-2017. In 2016, it was mainly due to the supply-side reform, and the impact of the demand side was relatively weak.</p><p>The elasticity of this round in 2020 is 0.9-1, which is at least 50% higher than the normal level in 2013. At present, most of the price pressure is related to rising demand, which is normal and one-off, but one-third of the pressure is related to supply-side pressure. Some of the supply-side pressures are long-term. Including carbon emission reduction, environmental protection, etc., as well as long-term damage factors to supply capacity.</p><p>After economic activities have fully returned to normal, the willingness to invest is lower, resulting in lower economic growth levels, lower supply capacity and higher inflation.</p><p>Take a look at the reaction in financial markets. Because of vaccination, the rise in US Treasury Bond interest rates was once considered to have a significant relationship with the decline of Chinese A-shares.</p><p>The rise in U.S. Treasury Bond interest rates began to stall in April.</p><p>The long-term inflation expectation implied by the U.S. ten-year Treasury Bond is much higher than before the pandemic, and the real interest rate is much lower than before the pandemic. Before the pandemic, it was around 0 and now it is-0.5.</p><p>Although the Federal Reserve released hawkish signals last week, the market reaction was much weaker.</p><p>Everyone has optimistic expectations for economic recovery this year. The turning expectation for the flow is also determined. However, the yields of Chinese 10-year and 1-year Treasury Bond are declining.</p><p>If the market includes higher inflation expectations, the real yield of the ten-year Treasury Bond will undoubtedly be lower.</p><p>In a very low interest rate environment, it will affect asset valuations.</p><p>The savings rate of American households has risen sharply, and we don't know how to digest this part of passive savings.</p><p>Judging from the situation in China, it is unlikely that the United States will form a substantial inflationary shock in the future. This is more beneficial to the bond market and has a positive impact on the equity market.</p><p>Financial markets are constantly absorbing the prospects we discuss. But from the perspective of the Chinese market, people's response to lower interest rates and lower growth is not sufficient. There may be adjustments later.</p><p>Since 2011, China's economic growth rate has fluctuated and declined, and now it has dropped to around 5.</p><p>Compared with East Asian neighbors, after the per capita income reaches a high level, it is normal for the rapid economic growth to decline, and the slope of the decline is also normal.</p><p><b>Why does long-term economic growth decline? It lasts so long?</b></p><p>People's psychological preparation for the slowdown in growth before was insufficient.</p><p>Economic analysis is the easiest because it is an explanation after the fact.</p><p>There are many explanations for the economic slowdown, such as the slowdown of agricultural labor transfer and the increase of the proportion of service industry (the technological progress of service industry is inherently slow), but the universal law is that the marginal return of capital is diminishing.</p><p>The ultimate reason for the decline of China's economic growth is that China's economy has gone to the stage of diminishing returns on capital.</p><p>How to evaluate marginal return: incremental capital-output ratio (ICOR)? How much additional capital is required for every dollar of economic activity output.</p><p>This indicator goes up, which means that the output level has dropped. Before 2006, it was 3-4, but now it has reached 8. The marginal reward almost dropped by half.</p><p>If we look at the five-year geometric average, the diminishing marginal returns are also obvious.</p><p>From the perspective of East Asian economies, compared with Japan, Taiwan Province and South Korea, before the transition, the return on capital was very close, roughly around 4. After the transition, the diminishing marginal return in mainland China did not worsen.</p><p>If the rolling average is done, before the transformation, China's capital return is close to that of Japan and South Korea. After the transformation, the slope of capital return deterioration is relatively normal to the current level.</p><p>Part of the remuneration of capital goes to the laborers and part to the government, as well as the profits, depreciation and interest taken by capital. Before 2010, China's return on capital was very high, but after 2010, it experienced a substantial decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a6b7eee2798e5638e85813dda233122\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Why not do international comparisons of capital returns? Because it is difficult to account for the capital stock of an economy.</p><p>The whole social capital is the ROA of enterprise capital at the micro level. The decline of macro rate of return should also be reflected at the micro level.</p><p>It can be seen that the ROA of listed companies is declining in one direction. In order to smooth out the impact of emergencies, the five-year average data is used, which is also a decline.</p><p>The ROA of state-owned enterprises has also declined, but the ROA of non-state-owned industrial enterprises is different, which may be related to unstable sampling. The sampling of state-owned enterprises is more stable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0884efc2d46ee334ac14ec51d0049046\" tg-width=\"606\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Part of the return on the total assets of the enterprise is given to bondholders and turned into interest, and part is taken away by shareholders and turned into profits. How do interest rates change during the decline in return on total assets?</p><p>What we think is definite is down. Because the total cake is down.</p><p>From the perspective of East Asian economies, the one-year nominal Treasury Bond interest rate after the transition has a significant downward trend.</p><p>However, in China, interest rates have experienced a significant increase, which is different from the decline in return on total assets and its East Asian neighbors.</p><p>If the impact of inflation is excluded, the trend of rising interest rates also exists.</p><p>Credit interest rates in East Asian countries are on a downward trend, but credit interest rates in China have been rising, even if inflation is considered.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d87b06507c5882210f0a86064df1b5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the process of diminishing marginal returns in China, interest rates are still getting higher and higher. China's credit market is divided into many sub-categories, and basically there is no decline in interest rates. Excluding inflation, it will rise instead. The trend is very weird, should it fall or not. The consequence is that ROE will decline at an accelerated rate, and the market valuation center will be suppressed.</p><p>Therefore, A-shares will always be young and will always be 3000 points.</p><p>Unreasonably high interest rates have dampened valuations and earnings. The market can only tenaciously rely on eps to rise. Of course, there are many bottom-up reasons.</p><p><b>What are the reasons for unreasonably high interest rates?</b></p><p>A speculative explanation is that China's household savings rate has experienced a big decline, but the decline in China's savings rate is very slight. Another explanation is that financing is too tight, but China's leverage ratio is listed very quickly. Among East Asian economies, the leverage ratio is rising the fastest.</p><p>We believe that the most important impact is that in the past decade, the government regarded the economic decline as a cyclical phenomenon, so it needed a lot of financial support. The public sector raised funds in the market on a large scale, but the expansion of public sector financing was subject to weak interest rate constraints, pushing up interest rates, squeezing out private investment, and constantly squeezing out. This also brings the paradox of a declining economy and rising interest rates.</p><p>The more serious the crowding out of the private sector is, the stronger the economic expansion of the public sector is, forming an a vicious circle.</p><p>Make some predictions about the future:</p><p>This logic has just ended or will soon end. With the end of this logic, there will be a trend and relatively large decline in interest rates.</p><p>The next 5-10 years of dysfunctional interest rate rises will come to an end.</p><p>The trend of China's economic interest rate deviates from that of East Asian countries, but this deviation is an exception, and there will be a greater decline in the next 5-10 years.</p><p>For the equity market, valuation pressure will be removed, profit pressure will also be reduced, the private economy will return to the economy, pricing distortions will be corrected, valuation and profit distortions will also be corrected, and allocation efficiency will be improved.</p><p>In 2016, comprehensive deployment to prevent financial risks began, and marginal changes have already begun.</p><p>From 2011 to 2016, more and more money flowed to local governments. After 2017, the trend has changed somewhat. More and more money flowed to enterprises, the market interest rate showed signs of decline, and the valuation of the equity market also showed signs of improvement.</p><p>In the past ten years, the increase of the Shanghai Composite Index has been limited, which may have been suppressed by exceptional factors. Now it has seen signs of lifting. Coupled with the increase in precautionary savings, the signs of interest rate decline will be more obvious.</p><p>If you look at Treasury Bond's interest rate in 2030, it will be very low by then, and it will fall to 2%.</p><p>This will have a relatively large impact on the equity market. People in the capital market have been relatively difficult in the past ten years, and it will be much better in the next ten years.</p>","source":"XCF","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A-shares have suffered in the past 10 years and will be much better in the next 10 years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA-shares have suffered in the past 10 years and will be much better in the next 10 years\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新财富</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 10:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Core views:</b></p><p>1. The impact of economic pressure on economy, psychology and behavior reduces the willingness to take risks. For a period of time, the economic growth rate was lower, interest rates were lower, and the central bank focused more on currency than inflation.</p><p>2. Long-term problem: The marginal return on capital is diminishing, which is very close to the historical process of Japan and South Korea, and corresponds to the continuous decline of the return on capital.</p><p>3. Compared with other countries, the decline of long-term returns is positively correlated with the decline of interest rate center, while the opposite is true in China. China's interest rate rose instead of falling during the transition period. Correspondingly, at the micro level, all profits were eaten by interest and equity profits were eroded.</p><p>4. The reason for the inflated high interest rate is that the leverage ratio has risen too fast (the investment rate and savings rate have declined slightly, which is not the core factor). The large-scale financing of government departments has weaker financial constraints, which has pushed up the interest rate level and squeezed out private investment, driven by political achievements rather than investment returns.</p><p>5. There is a long-term downward trend in interest rates (as long as inflation expectations are not so high, nominal interest rates will also fall), and superimposed precautionary savings will also inhibit further rises in interest rates.</p><p>Views on A-shares: In the past, China's interest rate level was unreasonably high, and the return on capital rate dropped again, so A-shares will always be young and will always be 3,000 points. But the next 5-10 years of abnormal interest rate rises will come to an end. Looking at the 10-year Treasury Bond, it will fall to 2% in the future. This will greatly affect the equity market. The past 10 years have been suffering, and the next 10 years will be much better.</p><p><b>Here is the text:</b></p><p>In the past year and a half, the global economy has suffered a sudden impact from the new crown, and economic and financial activities have suffered severe damage and disruption. We seem safe to say that with vaccination, we are making more progress and more comfortable living with the virus. With defensive barriers erected, economic recovery is in sight.</p><p>The financial market has turned its attention to the post-epidemic era and begun to pay attention to changes in the prices of various financial assets.</p><p>Compared with before the outbreak of the epidemic in 2019, will there be systematic differences in financial asset pricing?</p><p>Human history has often encountered disasters, and COVID-19 pandemic is the worst epidemic in nearly a hundred years.</p><p>Financial markets are already considering what will happen after the economy fully recovers. The question to be asked is whether the disaster itself will have long-term effects on human psychology and behavior after the disaster has passed.</p><p>Combined with some historical experience analysis, it can be generally said that from the perspective of economic behavior, it will have two long-term effects on our lives.</p><p>First, compared with before the disaster, people's willingness and ability to accept risks will decrease, and they are unwilling to take radical actions.</p><p>Second, the epidemic has had a serious impact on lives and property, and millions of people around the world will eventually lose their lives. The stock of capital has also been greatly impacted, and many enterprises have closed down. More importantly, normal investment activities have stopped. Investment activity in major economies has all experienced sharp declines. A decline in population means a decline in human resources. It can be said that the supply capacity of the entire economy will be relatively low even after the epidemic is over. First, many enterprises have disappeared, and second, the production activities of many enterprises cannot be carried out normally. All this determines that it is difficult for the economic supply capacity to recover quickly.</p><p>China brought the epidemic under control in the middle of last year, and its economic life recovered rapidly in August last year at the latest. It has been a year since then. Although transnational tourism and other activities have not returned to normal, most activities have returned to normal.</p><p>Studying the performance of China's economy will help us understand the economic performance after the epidemic and better understand the changes in financial asset pricing.</p><p>The first is to study the savings behavior of residents' departments. Throughout the epidemic, residents' precautionary savings have systematically increased, residents have become more conservative, and residents have become more anxious.</p><p>In the first and second quarters of last year, the savings rate rose abnormally by 6 percentage points, which was abnormally large. The possible reason is that social isolation makes many consumption behaviors impossible to complete. Many consumer funds are passively saved. As consumption behavior cannot be unfolded, passive savings increase.</p><p>How much was passive savings and how much was anxiety savings in the first and second quarters of last year? It's not easy to tell. Europe and the United States are still in anxiety. The economy basically began to be normal in the third quarter of last year. In the fourth quarter of last year and the first and second quarters of this year, there should be not much passive savings in the economy, but it still increased by 1-2 points. This part should be the increase of long-term savings. Passive savings should have 4 points.</p><p><b>Where did the 4-point passive savings go?</b></p><p>First, during the social isolation period, it is saved up and spent when the social isolation is over. Second, part of the savings buy a house, which will not be converted into consumption for a long time.</p><p>Where these passive savings will go is not very easy to tell.</p><p>The situation in China shows that these passive savings are not quickly converted into immediate consumption. If it is quickly converted into consumption, the changing trend of precautionary savings in the second and third quarters of last year is very smooth, and it is somewhat rising.</p><p>The passive savings accumulated in the United States is amazing, and the U.S. government has issued a lot of subsidies. After the social isolation is lifted, will the passive savings obtained by the United States be released immediately? If so, the United States will soon face severe inflationary pressure. However, judging from the situation in China, passive savings will not be consumed soon, and the fear of inflation may be filtered.</p><p><b>The impact of rising savings rates?</b></p><p>If everyone doesn't spend, then economic activity will shrink. Even if China's precautionary savings growth is estimated by 2 points, regardless of the multiplier effect, the impact on China's economic growth should be 1 point. Originally, China's growth rate should have been 6%, but it should actually be 5%. The current growth rate is more than 5%, thanks to strong exports.</p><p>The growth of consumer spending of Chinese residents, which was about 6% before the epidemic, has stabilized at 3% in the past few quarters, which has dropped by half compared to before the epidemic.</p><p>Manufacturing investment and private investment activities have been inactive for a long time. Before the epidemic, they basically remained above 0. After the epidemic, after excluding inflation factors, they were all below 0.</p><p>It can be seen that people are more reluctant to take risks, and the impact on the economic aggregate should be 1 point. If exports decline next year, economic growth may be lower than expected.</p><p>The good news is that human beings are essentially optimistic species. Sooner or later, human beings will forget the pain. The bad news is that we don't know when this turning point will happen, maybe at the end of next year, three years or five years from now. We can only know that the more serious the crisis is, the longer the impact will last, and this time it will not pass soon. The epidemic has caused great damage to production capacity. This inhibitory factor is also clearly reflected in the data.</p><p>Looking at the rebound after the economic shock in this century, before 2013, for every point of economic growth rebound, inflation will increase by 0.6. This resilience reached 2.4 in 2016-2017. In 2016, it was mainly due to the supply-side reform, and the impact of the demand side was relatively weak.</p><p>The elasticity of this round in 2020 is 0.9-1, which is at least 50% higher than the normal level in 2013. At present, most of the price pressure is related to rising demand, which is normal and one-off, but one-third of the pressure is related to supply-side pressure. Some of the supply-side pressures are long-term. Including carbon emission reduction, environmental protection, etc., as well as long-term damage factors to supply capacity.</p><p>After economic activities have fully returned to normal, the willingness to invest is lower, resulting in lower economic growth levels, lower supply capacity and higher inflation.</p><p>Take a look at the reaction in financial markets. Because of vaccination, the rise in US Treasury Bond interest rates was once considered to have a significant relationship with the decline of Chinese A-shares.</p><p>The rise in U.S. Treasury Bond interest rates began to stall in April.</p><p>The long-term inflation expectation implied by the U.S. ten-year Treasury Bond is much higher than before the pandemic, and the real interest rate is much lower than before the pandemic. Before the pandemic, it was around 0 and now it is-0.5.</p><p>Although the Federal Reserve released hawkish signals last week, the market reaction was much weaker.</p><p>Everyone has optimistic expectations for economic recovery this year. The turning expectation for the flow is also determined. However, the yields of Chinese 10-year and 1-year Treasury Bond are declining.</p><p>If the market includes higher inflation expectations, the real yield of the ten-year Treasury Bond will undoubtedly be lower.</p><p>In a very low interest rate environment, it will affect asset valuations.</p><p>The savings rate of American households has risen sharply, and we don't know how to digest this part of passive savings.</p><p>Judging from the situation in China, it is unlikely that the United States will form a substantial inflationary shock in the future. This is more beneficial to the bond market and has a positive impact on the equity market.</p><p>Financial markets are constantly absorbing the prospects we discuss. But from the perspective of the Chinese market, people's response to lower interest rates and lower growth is not sufficient. There may be adjustments later.</p><p>Since 2011, China's economic growth rate has fluctuated and declined, and now it has dropped to around 5.</p><p>Compared with East Asian neighbors, after the per capita income reaches a high level, it is normal for the rapid economic growth to decline, and the slope of the decline is also normal.</p><p><b>Why does long-term economic growth decline? It lasts so long?</b></p><p>People's psychological preparation for the slowdown in growth before was insufficient.</p><p>Economic analysis is the easiest because it is an explanation after the fact.</p><p>There are many explanations for the economic slowdown, such as the slowdown of agricultural labor transfer and the increase of the proportion of service industry (the technological progress of service industry is inherently slow), but the universal law is that the marginal return of capital is diminishing.</p><p>The ultimate reason for the decline of China's economic growth is that China's economy has gone to the stage of diminishing returns on capital.</p><p>How to evaluate marginal return: incremental capital-output ratio (ICOR)? How much additional capital is required for every dollar of economic activity output.</p><p>This indicator goes up, which means that the output level has dropped. Before 2006, it was 3-4, but now it has reached 8. The marginal reward almost dropped by half.</p><p>If we look at the five-year geometric average, the diminishing marginal returns are also obvious.</p><p>From the perspective of East Asian economies, compared with Japan, Taiwan Province and South Korea, before the transition, the return on capital was very close, roughly around 4. After the transition, the diminishing marginal return in mainland China did not worsen.</p><p>If the rolling average is done, before the transformation, China's capital return is close to that of Japan and South Korea. After the transformation, the slope of capital return deterioration is relatively normal to the current level.</p><p>Part of the remuneration of capital goes to the laborers and part to the government, as well as the profits, depreciation and interest taken by capital. Before 2010, China's return on capital was very high, but after 2010, it experienced a substantial decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a6b7eee2798e5638e85813dda233122\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Why not do international comparisons of capital returns? Because it is difficult to account for the capital stock of an economy.</p><p>The whole social capital is the ROA of enterprise capital at the micro level. The decline of macro rate of return should also be reflected at the micro level.</p><p>It can be seen that the ROA of listed companies is declining in one direction. In order to smooth out the impact of emergencies, the five-year average data is used, which is also a decline.</p><p>The ROA of state-owned enterprises has also declined, but the ROA of non-state-owned industrial enterprises is different, which may be related to unstable sampling. The sampling of state-owned enterprises is more stable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0884efc2d46ee334ac14ec51d0049046\" tg-width=\"606\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Part of the return on the total assets of the enterprise is given to bondholders and turned into interest, and part is taken away by shareholders and turned into profits. How do interest rates change during the decline in return on total assets?</p><p>What we think is definite is down. Because the total cake is down.</p><p>From the perspective of East Asian economies, the one-year nominal Treasury Bond interest rate after the transition has a significant downward trend.</p><p>However, in China, interest rates have experienced a significant increase, which is different from the decline in return on total assets and its East Asian neighbors.</p><p>If the impact of inflation is excluded, the trend of rising interest rates also exists.</p><p>Credit interest rates in East Asian countries are on a downward trend, but credit interest rates in China have been rising, even if inflation is considered.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d87b06507c5882210f0a86064df1b5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the process of diminishing marginal returns in China, interest rates are still getting higher and higher. China's credit market is divided into many sub-categories, and basically there is no decline in interest rates. Excluding inflation, it will rise instead. The trend is very weird, should it fall or not. The consequence is that ROE will decline at an accelerated rate, and the market valuation center will be suppressed.</p><p>Therefore, A-shares will always be young and will always be 3000 points.</p><p>Unreasonably high interest rates have dampened valuations and earnings. The market can only tenaciously rely on eps to rise. Of course, there are many bottom-up reasons.</p><p><b>What are the reasons for unreasonably high interest rates?</b></p><p>A speculative explanation is that China's household savings rate has experienced a big decline, but the decline in China's savings rate is very slight. Another explanation is that financing is too tight, but China's leverage ratio is listed very quickly. Among East Asian economies, the leverage ratio is rising the fastest.</p><p>We believe that the most important impact is that in the past decade, the government regarded the economic decline as a cyclical phenomenon, so it needed a lot of financial support. The public sector raised funds in the market on a large scale, but the expansion of public sector financing was subject to weak interest rate constraints, pushing up interest rates, squeezing out private investment, and constantly squeezing out. This also brings the paradox of a declining economy and rising interest rates.</p><p>The more serious the crowding out of the private sector is, the stronger the economic expansion of the public sector is, forming an a vicious circle.</p><p>Make some predictions about the future:</p><p>This logic has just ended or will soon end. With the end of this logic, there will be a trend and relatively large decline in interest rates.</p><p>The next 5-10 years of dysfunctional interest rate rises will come to an end.</p><p>The trend of China's economic interest rate deviates from that of East Asian countries, but this deviation is an exception, and there will be a greater decline in the next 5-10 years.</p><p>For the equity market, valuation pressure will be removed, profit pressure will also be reduced, the private economy will return to the economy, pricing distortions will be corrected, valuation and profit distortions will also be corrected, and allocation efficiency will be improved.</p><p>In 2016, comprehensive deployment to prevent financial risks began, and marginal changes have already begun.</p><p>From 2011 to 2016, more and more money flowed to local governments. After 2017, the trend has changed somewhat. More and more money flowed to enterprises, the market interest rate showed signs of decline, and the valuation of the equity market also showed signs of improvement.</p><p>In the past ten years, the increase of the Shanghai Composite Index has been limited, which may have been suppressed by exceptional factors. Now it has seen signs of lifting. Coupled with the increase in precautionary savings, the signs of interest rate decline will be more obvious.</p><p>If you look at Treasury Bond's interest rate in 2030, it will be very low by then, and it will fall to 2%.</p><p>This will have a relatively large impact on the equity market. People in the capital market have been relatively difficult in the past ten years, and it will be much better in the next ten years.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JDeEFOAASxW7ddANZVzbdw\">新财富</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/613a9f1e2a78b62d187cf10c318f0e65","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JDeEFOAASxW7ddANZVzbdw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136429303","content_text":"核心观点：\n1、经济压力对经济、心理、行为的影响，降低了承担风险的意愿。一段时间经济增速更低，利率更低，中央银行关注焦点更多在货币上而不是通胀上面。\n2、长期问题：边际资本报酬递减，这与日韩历史进程是很接近的，对应的也是资本报酬率的持续下降。\n3、对比其他国家，长期回报下降与利率中枢下降是正相关的，而中国是相反的。中国利率在转型期不降反升，对应在微观层面表现为利润都被利息吃掉了，股权利润被侵蚀。\n4、利率虚高的原因，杠杆率上升太快了（投资率储蓄率下降都很轻微不是核心因素），政府部门大规模融资，财务约束更弱，推升了利率水平，同时挤出了私人投资，政绩驱动而非投资回报驱动。\n5、利率长期存在下行趋势（只要通胀预期不那么高，那么名义利率也会下），叠加预防性储蓄也会抑制利率的进一步上升。\n对A股的看法：过去中国利率水平不合理的高，资本报酬率又下降，所以A股永远年轻，永远都是3000点。但未来5-10年不正常的利率上升将会终结。看10年国债，将来会跌到2%。这将极大影响权益市场，过去10年很煎熬，未来10年会好得多。\n以下为正文：\n在过去一年半时间里，全球经济遭遇到了突如其来的新冠冲击，经济活动和金融活动遭受了严重的破坏和混乱。我们似乎有把握说，随着疫苗接种，我们越来越取得进展，也越来越适应与病毒共存。随着防御屏障建立起来，经济恢复是在望的。\n金融市场已经将目光转向后疫情时代，开始关注各类金融资产价格的变化。\n和2019年疫情爆发前相比，金融资产定价是否会有系统性差异?\n人类历史时常会遇到灾难事件，新冠疫情是近一百年来最严重的流行病。\n金融市场已经在考虑经济全面恢复后的情况。要提出的问题是，灾难过去后，灾难本身是否会对人类心理和行为产生长期影响。\n结合一些历史经验分析，可以概括地说，从经济行为角度来讲，对我们的生活会产生两个长期影响。\n一是，相对于灾难前，人们接受风险的意愿和能力会下降，不愿意采取激进的行为。\n二是，疫情对生命和财产造成了比较严重的冲击，全球最终会有上百万人失去生命。资本存量也受到很大冲击，不少企业关门歇业。更重要的是，正常的投资活动都停止了。主要经济体的投资活动都经历了大幅下降。人口下降意味着人力资源下降。可以说，整个经济供应能力即使在疫情结束后，也会处于比较低的状态。一是很多企业消失了，二是很多企业生产活动无法正常进行。这都决定了经济供应能力很难很快恢复。\n中国去年年中控制住了疫情，最晚在去年8月经济生活快速恢复，至今已经有一年时间，虽然跨国旅游等活动还没有恢复正常，但绝大多数活动已经正常。\n研究中国经济的表现，有助于我们理解疫情后的经济表现，也可以更好理解金融资产定价的变化。\n首先是是研究居民部门储蓄行为。整个疫情期间，居民预防性储蓄都有系统性上升，居民变得更加保守，居民变得更加焦虑。\n去年一季度和二季度，储蓄率异常上升了6个百分点，异常的大。可能的原因是社交隔离使得很多消费行为无法完成。很多消费资金被动储蓄起来。由于消费行为无法展开，被动储蓄增加。\n去年1、2季度中有多少是被动储蓄、有多少是焦虑储蓄？不是很好分清楚。欧美现在还处于焦虑中。去年3季度经济基本开始正常。去年四季度、今年1、2季度经济中被动储蓄应该已经不多，但是还是增长了1-2个点，这部分应该就是长期储蓄的增加。被动储蓄应该有4个点。\n4个点的被动储蓄去了哪了？\n一是社交隔离期间，攒起来了，社交隔离结束就花掉了。二是部分储蓄买了房子，在很长时间内都不会转化为消费。\n这些被动储蓄会流向哪里不是很容易判断。\n中国的情况说明，这些被动储蓄没有很快的转化为即时消费。如果很快转化为消费，去年二三季度预防性储蓄的变化趋势是很平滑的，多少还有些上升。\n美国积累的被动储蓄非常惊人，美国政府发放了大量补贴。社交隔离解除后，美国获得的被动储蓄是不是会马上释放出来，如果会，那美国很快会面临严重的通胀压力。但是从中国的情况看，被动储蓄不会很快消费掉，对通胀的担心可能是过滤了。\n储蓄率上升的影响？\n如果每个人都不消费，那么经济活动会萎缩。即使以中国预防性储蓄增长2个点来估计，不考虑乘数效应，对中国经济增长的影响应该在1个点。原本中国增速应该在6%，实际应该是5%。目前增速超过5%，得益于强劲的出口。\n中国居民消费开支的增长，在疫情前大概是6%，在过去几个季度稳定下来，稳定在3%，相对于疫情前下跌了一半。\n制造业投资和民间投资活动长期不太活跃，疫情前基本维持在0以上的水平，疫情后，剔除通胀因素后，都在0以下水平。\n可以看到人们更不愿意承受风险，对经济总量的影响应该在1个点，如果明年出口下滑，经济增长可能会低于预期。\n好消息是人类本质上是个乐观主义的物种，人类迟早都会忘掉痛苦，坏消息是不知道这一转折什么时候发生，可能明年年底、三年、五年后。我们只能知道，危机越严重，影响持续越长，这一次也不会很快过去、疫情对生产能力造成很大破坏，这一抑制因素在数据上也有清晰体现。\n本世纪经济冲击后的反弹情况看，2013年以前，经济增速每反弹一个点，通胀将增长0.6。2016-2017年这一弹性达到2.4。2016年主要是因为供给侧改革，需求面的影响是比较微弱的。\n2020年这一轮弹性在0.9-1，相对于2013年的正常水平，至少上升了50%。现在价格压力大部分与需求上升有关系，是正常的，也是一次性的，但是还有三分之一的压力和供应端压力有关。供应端压力之中一部分具有长期性。包括碳减排、环保等，还有供应能力的长期破坏因素。\n在经济活动完全恢复正常以后，投资意愿更低，造成经济增长水平更低，供应能力更低，造成通胀更高。\n看一下在金融市场的反应。因为疫苗接种美国国债利率上升一度被认为与中国A股下跌有显著关系。\n美国国债利率上升在4月份开始止步不前。\n美国十年期国债隐含的长期通胀预期比疫情前高得多，实际利率比疫情前低得多，疫情前是0附近，现在是-0.5。\n上周尽管美联储释放了鹰派信号，但是市场反应弱的多。\n大家对今年经济恢复保有乐观预期。对流动的转弯预期也是确定的。但是中国十年期、1年前期国债收益率都在下行。\n如果市场包含了更高的通胀预期，十年国债实际收益率无疑更低。\n在很低的利率环境下，会影响资产估值。\n美国居民储蓄率大幅调升，我们不知道这部分被动性储蓄如何消化。\n从中国情况看，后续美国形成大幅通胀冲击的可能性不大。这对债券市场更加有利，对权益市场影响也是偏正面的。\n金融市场在不断吸收我们讨论的前景。但从中国市场看，人们对更低的利率和更低的增长反应还不充分。后面可能还有调整。\n2011年以后中国经济增速出现波动下行，现在已经降到5附近。\n对照东亚邻国，人均收入达到较高水平后，经济高速增长下降是正常的，下降的斜率也是正常的。\n为什么长期经济增长会下降？持续时间还这么长？\n之前人们对增速放缓的心理准备是不足的。\n经济分析最容易的，因为是事后解释。\n经济放缓有很多解释，比如农业劳动力转移放慢、服务业比重增加（服务业技术进步本来就慢），但是普适规律是资本边际报酬递减。\n中国经济增速下降的终极原因就是中国经济过度到了资本报酬递减的阶段。\n如何评价边际报酬：增量资本产出比（ICOR)？经济活动每增加一块钱产出，需要额外付出多少资本。\n这个指标往上走，意味着产出水平下降，2006年以前是3-4，现在已经到了8。边际报酬几乎下降了一半。\n如果用五年几何平均看，边际报酬递减也是明显的。\n如果放在东亚经济体比较的视角来看，和日本、台湾、韩国比较看，转型前，资本报酬都很接近，大体都是4左右 ，转型后，中国内地的边际报酬递减也没有更加恶化。\n如果做滚动平均，转型前，中国资本报酬和日韩也是接近的，转型后，资本报酬恶化的斜率和目前的水平也是相对正常的。\n资本的报酬一部分归劳动者、一部分归政府，还有资本拿走的利润、折旧、利息。2010年之前，中国资本报酬率是很高的，2010年之后经历了很大幅度的下降。\n为什么不做资本报酬的国际比较？因为核算一个经济体的资本存量是很困难的。\n全社会资本在微观层面上就是企业资本的ROA。宏观报酬率下降在微观上也应该有体现。\n可以看到上市公司ROA是单向下降的。为了熨平突发事件影响，采用五年平均数据，也是下降。\n国有企业ROA也是下降的，但是非国有工业企业ROA有所不同，可能和取样不稳定有关。国有企业取样更加稳定。\n\n企业总资产的回报一部分给了债券持有人，变成利息，一部分被股东拿走，变成利润。在总资产报酬率下降的过程中，利率是怎么变化的 ？\n我们认为确定的是下降的。因为总的蛋糕是下降的。\n东亚经济体来看，转型后一年期名义国债利率都是有一个明显下降的趋势。\n但是中国情况是，利率反而经历了明显上升，与总资产报酬率下降不一样，和东亚邻国也不一样。\n如果剔除通胀影响，利率上升的趋势也存在。\n东亚各国信贷利率是下降趋势，但是中国信贷利率一直在上升，即使考虑通胀因素也是上升。\n\n中国在边际报酬递减的过程情况下，利率还是越来越高，中国信贷市场分为很多子类，基本上都看不到利率下降。剔除通胀，反而会上升。走势十分怪异，应降不降。后果就是ROE加速下降，市场估值中枢会受到抑制。\n所以A股永远年轻，永远都是3000点。\n不合理的高利率抑制了估值和盈利。市场只能顽强的依靠eps上涨。当然还有很多自下而上的原因。\n不合理的高利率原因是什么？\n一个猜测性解释是，中国居民储蓄率经历了很大下降，但是中国储蓄率下降是很轻微的。另一个解释是融资收的太紧，但是中国杠杆率上市特别快，在东亚经济体中，杠杆率的上升是最快的。\n我们认为最重要的影响是在过去十年里，政府把经济下降看成是一个周期现象，因而需要大量的财政支持，公共部门大规模在市场融资，但是公共部门的融资扩张，受到的利率约束很弱，推升了利率水平，挤出了私人投资，并且是不断挤出。这也带来了经济下降利率上升的悖论。\n私人部门挤出越严重，公共部门经济扩张更强，形成恶性循环。\n对未来做一些预判：\n刚才这个逻辑已经或者很快就会终结。随着这个逻辑终结，利率将会出现趋势性的、幅度比较大的下降。\n未来5-10年不正常的利率上升将会终结。\n中国经济利率趋势与东亚各国是背离的，但是这个背离是例外，未来5-10年将会出现更大的下降幅度。\n对于权益市场，估值压力将被搬走，盈利压力也减小，私人经济将重新回到经济体，定价扭曲将被修正，估值、盈利的扭曲也会被修正，配置效率将会提升。\n2016年开始全面部署防范金融风险开始，边际变化已经开始。\n2011-2016年资金流向地方政府的钱越来越多，2017年后趋势已经有些变化，流向企业的钱越来越多，市场利率出现下降苗头，权益市场估值也出现了提升苗头。\n过去十年上证指数涨幅有限，可能受到了例外因素的抑制，现在已经看到了解除的苗头，叠加预防性储蓄的增加，利率下降苗头会更加明显。\n如果看2030年国债利率，到时候将会非常低，将会跌到2%。\n这对权益市场会有比较大的影响，过去十年资本市场里面的人是比较难熬的，未来十年会好的多。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1088,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128325020,"gmtCreate":1624502719760,"gmtModify":1703838579143,"author":{"id":"3581983097481247","authorId":"3581983097481247","name":"无欲2057","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e1909dfac2a022786e0d074699d2f2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983097481247","authorIdStr":"3581983097481247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/128325020","repostId":"1136951406","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":745,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123149201,"gmtCreate":1624413416803,"gmtModify":1703835915196,"author":{"id":"3581983097481247","authorId":"3581983097481247","name":"无欲2057","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e1909dfac2a022786e0d074699d2f2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983097481247","authorIdStr":"3581983097481247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/123149201","repostId":"1109081443","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1031,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120217581,"gmtCreate":1624324580743,"gmtModify":1703833456555,"author":{"id":"3581983097481247","authorId":"3581983097481247","name":"无欲2057","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e1909dfac2a022786e0d074699d2f2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983097481247","authorIdStr":"3581983097481247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120217581","repostId":"2145035774","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1048,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162702120,"gmtCreate":1624074297460,"gmtModify":1703828281546,"author":{"id":"3581983097481247","authorId":"3581983097481247","name":"无欲2057","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e1909dfac2a022786e0d074699d2f2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983097481247","authorIdStr":"3581983097481247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/162702120","repostId":"2144088007","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":984,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191879633,"gmtCreate":1620871874422,"gmtModify":1704349616120,"author":{"id":"3581983097481247","authorId":"3581983097481247","name":"无欲2057","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e1909dfac2a022786e0d074699d2f2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983097481247","authorIdStr":"3581983097481247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/191879633","repostId":"1123721888","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123721888","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1620812439,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123721888?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-12 17:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tiger Securities was included in the MSCI China All-Stock Index!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123721888","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"此次被纳入MSCI意味着国际资本市场对老虎证券的认可和信心！","content":"<p>According to news on May 11, the international index compilation company MSCI announced the quarterly adjustment results of the index in May. Among them,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">Tiger Securities</a>Included in the MSCI China All Shares Index (MSCI China All Shares Index) will take effect after the market closes on May 27.</p><p>Wu Tianhua, founder and CEO of Tiger Securities, said: \"Tiger Securities' inclusion in the MSCI China All-Stock Index represents the recognition and confidence of the international market in our long-term investment value and development prospects. Tiger Securities' mission is to make investment better with technology. Through continuous technological iteration, we are committed to providing investors with a more efficient, convenient and smooth one-stop global investment experience. As Tiger enters Singapore, the United States and other countries and regions, we look forward to serving more global users. \"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cac618ec6413c15fd5aad09ee702621\" tg-width=\"405\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MSCI (morgan stanley capital international) is currently the most important index company in the world. It compiles hundreds of indexes in various markets around the world, and is used as an investment benchmark and tracked by a large number of international institutions and investors. Since the release of the first index in 1969, MSCI has mainly provided products and services such as indexes, risk portfolios and performance analysis tools, and corporate governance tools according to different countries and regions, market sizes, industries and investment methods. Approximately US $10 trillion in the world's assets are benchmarked against the MSCI index, and 97 of the world's top 100 largest asset managers are MSCI clients. The pension of 95% of the investment equity in the United States is benchmarked on MSCI.</p><p>The MSCI China All Shares Index, compiled by MSCI, is the most important component of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. According to the adjustment method of MSCI index, companies that can be included in its index system generally have to meet a series of requirements such as total market value, free circulation market value, liquidity and trading hours.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8f2f148520e460cb20ee263c4b5fd2f\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>MSCI official site</span></p><p>Historical performance of MSCI China All Shares Index:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5df675372dbd49e16da8a583e0f650\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">According to the quarterly adjustment results released by MSCI, the MSCI China All-Stock Index added 60 new stocks this time and excluded 26 stocks. So, what does being on the list mean for tigers?</p><p>It means that the recognition and confidence of Tiger Securities in the international capital market will help further expand the company's influence in the international capital market and enhance the internationalization level of the company's shareholders.</p><p>According to MSCI estimates, trillions of dollars of funds around the world track emerging market indexes, including both active funds and passive funds. Passive funds use morgan stanley capital international China All-Stock Index as their investment target. When stocks are included in the index, passive investors will allocate these new constituent stocks in proportion.</p><p>View for details:</p><p><a href=\"https://www.msci.com/eqb/gimi/stdindex/MSCI_May21_ChinaAllShares_PublicList.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">MSCI China Index Constituent Stock Adjustment Description</a></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tiger Securities was included in the MSCI China All-Stock Index!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTiger Securities was included in the MSCI China All-Stock Index!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-12 17:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>According to news on May 11, the international index compilation company MSCI announced the quarterly adjustment results of the index in May. Among them,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">Tiger Securities</a>Included in the MSCI China All Shares Index (MSCI China All Shares Index) will take effect after the market closes on May 27.</p><p>Wu Tianhua, founder and CEO of Tiger Securities, said: \"Tiger Securities' inclusion in the MSCI China All-Stock Index represents the recognition and confidence of the international market in our long-term investment value and development prospects. Tiger Securities' mission is to make investment better with technology. Through continuous technological iteration, we are committed to providing investors with a more efficient, convenient and smooth one-stop global investment experience. As Tiger enters Singapore, the United States and other countries and regions, we look forward to serving more global users. \"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cac618ec6413c15fd5aad09ee702621\" tg-width=\"405\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MSCI (morgan stanley capital international) is currently the most important index company in the world. It compiles hundreds of indexes in various markets around the world, and is used as an investment benchmark and tracked by a large number of international institutions and investors. Since the release of the first index in 1969, MSCI has mainly provided products and services such as indexes, risk portfolios and performance analysis tools, and corporate governance tools according to different countries and regions, market sizes, industries and investment methods. Approximately US $10 trillion in the world's assets are benchmarked against the MSCI index, and 97 of the world's top 100 largest asset managers are MSCI clients. The pension of 95% of the investment equity in the United States is benchmarked on MSCI.</p><p>The MSCI China All Shares Index, compiled by MSCI, is the most important component of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. According to the adjustment method of MSCI index, companies that can be included in its index system generally have to meet a series of requirements such as total market value, free circulation market value, liquidity and trading hours.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8f2f148520e460cb20ee263c4b5fd2f\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>MSCI official site</span></p><p>Historical performance of MSCI China All Shares Index:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5df675372dbd49e16da8a583e0f650\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">According to the quarterly adjustment results released by MSCI, the MSCI China All-Stock Index added 60 new stocks this time and excluded 26 stocks. So, what does being on the list mean for tigers?</p><p>It means that the recognition and confidence of Tiger Securities in the international capital market will help further expand the company's influence in the international capital market and enhance the internationalization level of the company's shareholders.</p><p>According to MSCI estimates, trillions of dollars of funds around the world track emerging market indexes, including both active funds and passive funds. Passive funds use morgan stanley capital international China All-Stock Index as their investment target. When stocks are included in the index, passive investors will allocate these new constituent stocks in proportion.</p><p>View for details:</p><p><a href=\"https://www.msci.com/eqb/gimi/stdindex/MSCI_May21_ChinaAllShares_PublicList.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">MSCI China Index Constituent Stock Adjustment Description</a></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e4b807dafecc161ebbd0d3c42055f20","relate_stocks":{"TIGR":"老虎证券"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123721888","content_text":"5月11日消息，国际指数编制公司MSCI公布5月指数季度调整结果，其中，老虎证券获纳入MSCI中国全股票指数（MSCI China All Shares Index），将于5月27日收盘后生效。老虎证券创始人及CEO巫天华表示：“老虎证券获纳入MSCI中国全股票指数代表国际市场对我们长期投资价值和发展前景的认可和信心。老虎证券的使命是科技让投资更美好。通过不断技术迭代，我们致力于为投资者提供更高效、便捷、流畅的一站式全球投资体验。随着老虎进入新加坡，美国等国家和地区，我们期待服务更多全球用户。”MSCI（明晟）是目前全球最重要的指数公司，编制数百种全球各个市场的指数，被大量国际机构，投资者作为投资基准并跟踪。从 1969年发布第一只指数至今，MSCI按照国家和区域、市场规模大小、行业及投资方式的不同，主要提供指数、风险组合和业绩分析工具以及公司治理工具等产品和服务。全球约10万亿美元的资产以MSCI指数为基准，全球前100个最大资产管理者中，97个都是MSCI的客户。美国95%的投资权益的养老金以MSCI为基准。MSCI中国全股票指数(MSCI China All Shares Index)由摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)编制，是 MSCI新兴市场指数中最重要的组成部分。根据 MSCI指数的调整方法，能被纳入到其指数体系的公司一般要满足总市值、自由流通市值、流动性和交易时间等一系列要求。MSCI官网明晟中国全股票指数(MSCI China All Shares Index)历史表现：根据MSCI发布的季度调整结果， MSCI中国全股票指数本次新增60只个股，剔除26只股票。那么，上榜对于老虎意味着什么呢？意味着国际资本市场对老虎证券的认可和信心，有助于进一步扩大公司国际资本市场影响力、提升公司股东国际化水平。据 MSCI估算，全球数以万亿美元的资金跟踪新兴市场指数，其中既包含了主动型资金，又包含了被动型基金，被动型资金以明晟中国全股票指数作为投资标的。当股票被纳入指数后，被动型投资者会按比例配置新增这些成份股。详情查看：MSCI中国指数成分股调整说明","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TIGR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":585,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}