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stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1640876653,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1106092668?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-12-30 23:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106092668","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.Also Read:Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Unde","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/448dcc7d589843674730e046aa6ef96a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Also Read:</b><b>Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff</b></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Sea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.</li><li>I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.</li><li>I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5cbe0a30acc723a2c6f62300024002\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p>A by-parts analysis of Sea Limited&#39;s (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.</p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p>I recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I&#39;d already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.</p><p>Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don&#39;t speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It&#39;s one of my only losing positions that I didn&#39;t sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.</p><p>It&#39;s also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it&#39;s the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.</p><p>Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.</p><p><b>Gaming</b></p><p>Sea Limited&#39;s gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.</p><p>The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it&#39;s particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it&#39;s been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.</p><p>With the game having been popular for a long time already, there&#39;s some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.</p><p>Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it&#39;s the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea&#39;s non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.</p><p>Thus, one reason for Sea&#39;s recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e299727cc28a887a36d88831aec8f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Earnings Call Presentation</span></p><p>In Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.</p><p>While 20% isn&#39;t a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn&#39;t spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena&#39;s growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).</p><p>Garena&#39;s implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I&#39;ll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today&#39;s market.</p><p>This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management&#39;s guidance.</p><p>I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:</p><ul><li>Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.</li><li>The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.</li><li>Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.</li><li>Although I&#39;d obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it&#39;s still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena&#39;s revenue.</li></ul><p><b>E-Commerce</b></p><p>Sea&#39;s e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.</p><p>There&#39;s always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba&#39;s (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don&#39;t publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn&#39;t published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.</p><p>One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180367a2b64bccebf243c5b6d8fb776a\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from Alexa</span></p><p>Shopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6544f014a5d70d13ee14dab0ac8b6782\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnie</span></p><p>On the mobile side, there&#39;s no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.</p><p>Of course, traffic doesn&#39;t always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it&#39;s a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It&#39;s Shopee&#39;s dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.</p><p>So why would a company with so much potential sell off?</p><p>After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it&#39;s bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO&#39;s comments that they don&#39;t have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won&#39;t help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they&#39;re successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.</p><p>Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it&#39;s hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.</p><p>The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That&#39;s 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon&#39;s $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it&#39;s just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA&#39;s.</p><p>Despite being in a blue skies industry, it&#39;s more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee&#39;s success is not guaranteed because it&#39;s not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.</p><p>For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it&#39;s difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it&#39;s worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea&#39;s Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies&#39;, and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).</p><p>To understand Shopee&#39;s terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon&#39;s high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.</p><p>If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it&#39;s easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon&#39;s P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.</p><p>Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee&#39;s mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment&#39;s future. I recognize that it&#39;s currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.</p><p>So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.</p><p>Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let&#39;s look at the other parts of Sea.</p><p><b>FinTech &amp; Investments</b></p><p>The easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea&#39;s $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won&#39;t be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.</p><p>Then there is Sea&#39;s FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a &#34;take rate&#34; of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I&#39;m not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.</p><p>Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it&#39;s now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it&#39;s only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea&#39;s sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea&#39;s management - combined with Garena&#39;s ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It&#39;s certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.</p><p>If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre&#39;s revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa&#39;s, Mastercard&#39;s (NYSE:MA), and Affirm&#39;s (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies&#39;, but we don&#39;t even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea&#39;s current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.</p><p>One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started &#34;early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.&#34; These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.</p><p>Finally, there&#39;s the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There&#39;s strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea&#39;s investment arm is very early stage, so I don&#39;t include it in my valuation model. But it doesn&#39;t have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It&#39;s just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>Looking at each of Sea&#39;s segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn&#39;t account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea&#39;s business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn&#39;t take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.</p><p>This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven&#39;t been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today&#39;s prices. It&#39;s a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today&#39;s market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.</p><p>Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It&#39;s one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-12-30 23:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/448dcc7d589843674730e046aa6ef96a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Also Read:</b><b>Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff</b></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Sea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.</li><li>I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.</li><li>I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5cbe0a30acc723a2c6f62300024002\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p>A by-parts analysis of Sea Limited&#39;s (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.</p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p>I recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I&#39;d already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.</p><p>Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don&#39;t speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It&#39;s one of my only losing positions that I didn&#39;t sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.</p><p>It&#39;s also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it&#39;s the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.</p><p>Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.</p><p><b>Gaming</b></p><p>Sea Limited&#39;s gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.</p><p>The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it&#39;s particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it&#39;s been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.</p><p>With the game having been popular for a long time already, there&#39;s some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.</p><p>Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it&#39;s the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea&#39;s non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.</p><p>Thus, one reason for Sea&#39;s recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e299727cc28a887a36d88831aec8f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Earnings Call Presentation</span></p><p>In Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.</p><p>While 20% isn&#39;t a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn&#39;t spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena&#39;s growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).</p><p>Garena&#39;s implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I&#39;ll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today&#39;s market.</p><p>This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management&#39;s guidance.</p><p>I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:</p><ul><li>Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.</li><li>The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.</li><li>Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.</li><li>Although I&#39;d obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it&#39;s still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena&#39;s revenue.</li></ul><p><b>E-Commerce</b></p><p>Sea&#39;s e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.</p><p>There&#39;s always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba&#39;s (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don&#39;t publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn&#39;t published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.</p><p>One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180367a2b64bccebf243c5b6d8fb776a\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from Alexa</span></p><p>Shopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6544f014a5d70d13ee14dab0ac8b6782\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnie</span></p><p>On the mobile side, there&#39;s no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.</p><p>Of course, traffic doesn&#39;t always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it&#39;s a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It&#39;s Shopee&#39;s dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.</p><p>So why would a company with so much potential sell off?</p><p>After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it&#39;s bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO&#39;s comments that they don&#39;t have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won&#39;t help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they&#39;re successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.</p><p>Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it&#39;s hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.</p><p>The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That&#39;s 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon&#39;s $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it&#39;s just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA&#39;s.</p><p>Despite being in a blue skies industry, it&#39;s more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee&#39;s success is not guaranteed because it&#39;s not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.</p><p>For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it&#39;s difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it&#39;s worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea&#39;s Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies&#39;, and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).</p><p>To understand Shopee&#39;s terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon&#39;s high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.</p><p>If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it&#39;s easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon&#39;s P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.</p><p>Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee&#39;s mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment&#39;s future. I recognize that it&#39;s currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.</p><p>So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.</p><p>Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let&#39;s look at the other parts of Sea.</p><p><b>FinTech &amp; Investments</b></p><p>The easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea&#39;s $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won&#39;t be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.</p><p>Then there is Sea&#39;s FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a &#34;take rate&#34; of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I&#39;m not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.</p><p>Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it&#39;s now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it&#39;s only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea&#39;s sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea&#39;s management - combined with Garena&#39;s ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It&#39;s certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.</p><p>If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre&#39;s revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa&#39;s, Mastercard&#39;s (NYSE:MA), and Affirm&#39;s (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies&#39;, but we don&#39;t even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea&#39;s current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.</p><p>One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started &#34;early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.&#34; These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.</p><p>Finally, there&#39;s the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There&#39;s strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea&#39;s investment arm is very early stage, so I don&#39;t include it in my valuation model. But it doesn&#39;t have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It&#39;s just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>Looking at each of Sea&#39;s segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn&#39;t account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea&#39;s business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn&#39;t take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.</p><p>This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven&#39;t been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today&#39;s prices. It&#39;s a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today&#39;s market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.</p><p>Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It&#39;s one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106092668","content_text":"Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.Also Read:Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent SelloffSummarySea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty ImagesThesisA by-parts analysis of Sea Limited's (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.IntroductionI recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I'd already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don't speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It's one of my only losing positions that I didn't sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.It's also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it's the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.GamingSea Limited's gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it's particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it's been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.With the game having been popular for a long time already, there's some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it's the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea's non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.Thus, one reason for Sea's recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.Source: Earnings Call PresentationIn Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.While 20% isn't a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn't spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena's growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).Garena's implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I'll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today's market.This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management's guidance.I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.Although I'd obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it's still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena's revenue.E-CommerceSea's e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.There's always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba's (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don't publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn't published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.Source: The Author, compiled from AlexaShopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnieOn the mobile side, there's no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.Of course, traffic doesn't always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it's a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It's Shopee's dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.So why would a company with so much potential sell off?After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it's bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO's comments that they don't have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won't help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they're successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it's hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That's 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon's $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it's just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA's.Despite being in a blue skies industry, it's more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee's success is not guaranteed because it's not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it's difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it's worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea's Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies', and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).To understand Shopee's terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon's high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it's easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon's P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee's mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment's future. I recognize that it's currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let's look at the other parts of Sea.FinTech & InvestmentsThe easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea's $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won't be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.Then there is Sea's FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a \"take rate\" of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I'm not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it's now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it's only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea's sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea's management - combined with Garena's ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It's certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre's revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa's, Mastercard's (NYSE:MA), and Affirm's (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies', but we don't even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea's current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started \"early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.\" These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.Finally, there's the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There's strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea's investment arm is very early stage, so I don't include it in my valuation model. But it doesn't have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It's just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.ConclusionLooking at each of Sea's segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn't account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea's business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn't take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven't been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today's prices. It's a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today's market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It's one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2920,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9000320290,"gmtCreate":1639915414271,"gmtModify":1676533496068,"author":{"id":"3581898537749965","authorId":"3581898537749965","name":"Couch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c9b82fccf054c247e5e431e45f3550","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581898537749965","authorIdStr":"3581898537749965"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hiiiiii","listText":"Hiiiiii","text":"Hiiiiii","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9000320290","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2898,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":863425835,"gmtCreate":1632414890427,"gmtModify":1676530778109,"author":{"id":"3581898537749965","authorId":"3581898537749965","name":"Couch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c9b82fccf054c247e5e431e45f3550","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581898537749965","authorIdStr":"3581898537749965"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/863425835","repostId":"1187458780","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187458780","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632407803,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187458780?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-23 22:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Quant Analyst Charged With Front-Running Trades at Employer","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187458780","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Sergei Polevikov also sued by SEC over 5 years of trading.\nPolevikov allegedly used trading account ","content":"<div>\n<p>Sergei Polevikov also sued by SEC over 5 years of trading.\nPolevikov allegedly used trading account in wife’s name.\n\nSergei Polevikov, a former quantitative analyst, was criminallychargedby ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-23/analyst-accused-by-sec-of-front-running-trades-at-employer\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Quant Analyst Charged With Front-Running Trades at Employer</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuant Analyst Charged With Front-Running Trades at Employer\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-23 22:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-23/analyst-accused-by-sec-of-front-running-trades-at-employer><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Sergei Polevikov also sued by SEC over 5 years of trading.\nPolevikov allegedly used trading account in wife’s name.\n\nSergei Polevikov, a former quantitative analyst, was criminallychargedby ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-23/analyst-accused-by-sec-of-front-running-trades-at-employer\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-23/analyst-accused-by-sec-of-front-running-trades-at-employer","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187458780","content_text":"Sergei Polevikov also sued by SEC over 5 years of trading.\nPolevikov allegedly used trading account in wife’s name.\n\nSergei Polevikov, a former quantitative analyst, was criminallychargedby prosecutors for allegedly using confidential information to front-run trades by his employers.\nPolevikov, of Port Washington, New York, is accused of using inside information he learned about potential trades on behalf of his firm’s clients and using it to trade for himself in a brokerage account that he opened in his wife’s name. Prosecutors said he took advantage of “relatively small price movements” that come after large trades and earned $8.5 million.\nPolevikov, 48, was also sued by the Securities and Exchange Commission. The SEC said in astatementthat he “worked as a quantitative analyst at two prominent asset management firms.” It said that from at least January 2014 through October 2019, Polevikov “had access to real-time, non-public information about the size and timing of his employers’ securities orders and trades” and used it to secretly trade ahead of his employer.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":863017499,"gmtCreate":1632332577711,"gmtModify":1676530755599,"author":{"id":"3581898537749965","authorId":"3581898537749965","name":"Couch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c9b82fccf054c247e5e431e45f3550","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581898537749965","authorIdStr":"3581898537749965"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/863017499","repostId":"1146187405","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2089,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887504321,"gmtCreate":1632058500263,"gmtModify":1676530693846,"author":{"id":"3581898537749965","authorId":"3581898537749965","name":"Couch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c9b82fccf054c247e5e431e45f3550","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581898537749965","authorIdStr":"3581898537749965"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/887504321","repostId":"2168508165","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3649,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":885650091,"gmtCreate":1631789247813,"gmtModify":1676530636008,"author":{"id":"3581898537749965","authorId":"3581898537749965","name":"Couch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c9b82fccf054c247e5e431e45f3550","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581898537749965","authorIdStr":"3581898537749965"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/885650091","repostId":"1102459937","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3020,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":882747510,"gmtCreate":1631727918630,"gmtModify":1676530620288,"author":{"id":"3581898537749965","authorId":"3581898537749965","name":"Couch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c9b82fccf054c247e5e431e45f3550","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581898537749965","authorIdStr":"3581898537749965"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/882747510","repostId":"2167556360","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2167556360","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1631722877,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2167556360?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-16 00:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dutch Bros spikes 42% on its first day of trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2167556360","media":"Reuters","summary":"Dutch Bros spikes 42% on its first day of trading.\n\nPrivate equity firm TSG-backed Dutch Bros Inc pr","content":"<p>Dutch Bros spikes 42% on its first day of trading.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b80490c7ac9ea139fc9eafc72494c2d2\" tg-width=\"1407\" tg-height=\"892\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Private equity firm TSG-backed Dutch Bros Inc priced its initial public offering&nbsp;above its target range on Tuesday, valuing the company at about $3.8 billion.</p>\n<p>The coffee chain sold 21.1 million shares at $23 each, above the $18 to $20 per share range set earlier, to raise about $484 million in the IPO.</p>\n<p>TSG holds a minority stake in the company, which it bought for an undisclosed sum in 2018.</p>\n<p>Dutch Bros, founded in 1992 by brothers Dane and Travis Boersma in Oregon, had opened its first franchise in 2000 and now has 470 drive-thru coffee locations in 11 states.</p>\n<p>It reported a 13% rise in franchising and other revenue at $47.1 million for the six months ended June 30, compared with a year earlier when it's same-shop sales dropped due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the West Coast wildfires.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDutch Bros spikes 42% on its first day of trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-16 00:21</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Dutch Bros spikes 42% on its first day of trading.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b80490c7ac9ea139fc9eafc72494c2d2\" tg-width=\"1407\" tg-height=\"892\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Private equity firm TSG-backed Dutch Bros Inc priced its initial public offering&nbsp;above its target range on Tuesday, valuing the company at about $3.8 billion.</p>\n<p>The coffee chain sold 21.1 million shares at $23 each, above the $18 to $20 per share range set earlier, to raise about $484 million in the IPO.</p>\n<p>TSG holds a minority stake in the company, which it bought for an undisclosed sum in 2018.</p>\n<p>Dutch Bros, founded in 1992 by brothers Dane and Travis Boersma in Oregon, had opened its first franchise in 2000 and now has 470 drive-thru coffee locations in 11 states.</p>\n<p>It reported a 13% rise in franchising and other revenue at $47.1 million for the six months ended June 30, compared with a year earlier when it's same-shop sales dropped due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the West Coast wildfires.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BROS":"Dutch Bros Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2167556360","content_text":"Dutch Bros spikes 42% on its first day of trading.\n\nPrivate equity firm TSG-backed Dutch Bros Inc priced its initial public offering above its target range on Tuesday, valuing the company at about $3.8 billion.\nThe coffee chain sold 21.1 million shares at $23 each, above the $18 to $20 per share range set earlier, to raise about $484 million in the IPO.\nTSG holds a minority stake in the company, which it bought for an undisclosed sum in 2018.\nDutch Bros, founded in 1992 by brothers Dane and Travis Boersma in Oregon, had opened its first franchise in 2000 and now has 470 drive-thru coffee locations in 11 states.\nIt reported a 13% rise in franchising and other revenue at $47.1 million for the six months ended June 30, compared with a year earlier when it's same-shop sales dropped due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the West Coast wildfires.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BROS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888248029,"gmtCreate":1631502349761,"gmtModify":1676530559634,"author":{"id":"3581898537749965","authorId":"3581898537749965","name":"Couch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c9b82fccf054c247e5e431e45f3550","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581898537749965","authorIdStr":"3581898537749965"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;Mhi","listText":"&nbsp;Mhi","text":"Mhi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/888248029","repostId":"2166303388","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2954,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883632039,"gmtCreate":1631237006121,"gmtModify":1676530504190,"author":{"id":"3581898537749965","authorId":"3581898537749965","name":"Couch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c9b82fccf054c247e5e431e45f3550","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581898537749965","authorIdStr":"3581898537749965"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/883632039","repostId":"1133278609","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889521256,"gmtCreate":1631160313275,"gmtModify":1676530483800,"author":{"id":"3581898537749965","authorId":"3581898537749965","name":"Couch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c9b82fccf054c247e5e431e45f3550","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581898537749965","authorIdStr":"3581898537749965"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889521256","repostId":"1127517147","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127517147","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631158589,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1127517147?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-09 11:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon Vs. Microsoft: Two Cloud Computing Giants, One Winning Stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127517147","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft's Azure continues to gain market share in the burgeoning cloud infrastructure ser","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Microsoft's Azure continues to gain market share in the burgeoning cloud infrastructure services market. However, Amazon's AWS remains in the No.1 position.</li>\n <li>Although the cloud wars are heating up, both Azure and AWS are performing exceptionally, growing at 51% y/y and 37% y/y, respectively.</li>\n <li>The global cloud services market is poised to grow at a CAGR of ~15.8% until 2030 to become a $1.6T market. Therefore, cloud providers still have a long growth runway.</li>\n <li>In this article, I share a comparative financial analysis for Microsoft and Amazon to determine the better buy.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69eeb847ac2a68d9068ee3d90ae2ec5c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images News</span></p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) are competing for the coveted No.1 spot in the cloud infrastructure services market, which is projected to grow from $325B in 2021 to $1,620B (or $1.6T) by 2030, according to areportby Allied Market Research. In Q2, Amazon's AWS revenues grew at 37% year-over-year (marked acceleration) as it continues to lead the cloud infrastructure services market with a 31% market share. However, Microsoft's Azure is outpacing AWS's growth and now commands a market share of 22%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60b929cfb3eb06a50b14a942b980bd8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: canalys.com</span></p>\n<p>In the last year or so, the coronavirus pandemic has led to increased cloud infrastructure services spending as workload migration and cloud-native application development accelerated. Naturally, Azure and AWS have emerged as prime beneficiaries of this transformational shift toward the cloud. Although the coronavirus pandemic has receded in previous months, businesses have continued to embrace the cloud, as evidenced by the $5B sequential (q/q) growth in cloud infrastructure services spending in Q2 2021.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab77f327d4b4f980b703dd05a727a8fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: canalys.com</span></p>\n<p>Both Microsoft and Amazon are well-diversified big tech giants. However, the cloud opportunity is critical to their future successes. Today, Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud business makes up nearly ~37% of total revenues and ~40% of Microsoft's operating income, and these figures are expected to grow even further in the coming years. In relation to Amazon, AWS's revenues are a small fraction (13% in Q2 2021) of total sales. However, AWS contributes the majority of Amazon's operating income (~60%). And so, I'm not surprised with how ugly this battle is turning out to be. In recent times, we have witnessed dramatic instances such as&nbsp;Amazon's lawsuit&nbsp;for the $10B Jedi contract being awarded to Microsoft,Microsoft's protest&nbsp;to Government Accountability Office in relation to the $10B NSA contract awarded to Amazon, and a top AWS executive - Charlie Bell (once expected to be a successor to Andy Jassy as AWS CEO) -moving over to Microsoft. The competition between Amazon and Microsoft is fearsome. However, I can see ample room for multiple winners in the cloud services market.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7fd2cfae285856cb75e5ced740ef320\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Allied Market Research</span></p>\n<p>With massive cloud services growth on the horizon, I expect both Microsoft and Amazon to deliver double-digit revenue growth over the coming decade. Several analysts have projected the cloud services business to become a commodity. However, profitability metrics for AWS and Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud show that it's clearly not a commodity business (at least for now). Azure has been gaining ground on AWS, but it's too soon to tell which of these tech titans will lead the cloud services market over the coming years.</p>\n<p>Over the last 12 months, Microsoft has significantly outperformed Amazon in terms of creating shareholder wealth, as can be observed in the chart below. I attribute Microsoft's outperformance to a multitude of factors, including but not limited to stronger momentum in the cloud, the existence of a massive capital return program, and robust free cash flow generation.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a47beb283bcc911ba9ad25c4c2c01f91\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p>\n<p>In today's article, I will share a comparative financial analysis to determine the better buy among Microsoft and Amazon. Furthermore, we will estimate the fair value and expected returns for both of these blue-chip companies based on the financial statement analysis conducted in this note.</p>\n<p><b>Comparative Financial Analysis: Microsoft vs. Amazon</b></p>\n<p>I think it's too early to call the cloud services market, and the winners will only be evident in due time. However, it's very likely that Amazon and Microsoft will be dominating this market in 2031. Now, Amazon and Microsoft may be competitors in the cloud, but they happen to be two very different companies with varied core competencies: Amazon - e-commerce, Microsoft - business, and consumer software. Let's carry out a comparative financial analysis to determine the better buy among Microsoft and Amazon.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d675b34f8dc1b88db5722fa7be591b9f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p>\n<p>In essence, Microsoft is a high-margin software and services business, while Amazon is a low-margin retail business with some higher-margin business lines such as AWS and Advertising. Since both Amazon and Microsoft are over-covered stocks, I don't think discussing their revenue mix would be of much value. However, let's look at the free cash flow generation of these blue-chip giants to understand their current business momentum.</p>\n<p>After receiving a massive pandemic boost, Amazon's free cash flows have turned negative in the last two quarters as the company invests massive amounts of capital (capex spending) in driving future revenue growth. In Q2, Amazon missed revenue estimates by ~$2B, which is further evidence of Amazon losing business momentum. On the other hand, Microsoft's business momentum remained strong in Q2 as the company beat revenue expectations by ~$2B while generating record amounts of free cash flow over the last 12 months. Therefore, it's fair to say that Microsoft is outperforming Amazon for the time being.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ed96043009b5528ed09d4e736d1833d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"446\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p>\n<p>At the end of Q2, Microsoft had nearly $130B of cash and short-term investments on its balance sheet vs. financial debt of $58B (down from ~$90B debt in Dec'17). Over the last five years, Amazon's cash reserves have been building up, which now stand at ~$90B. However, the e-commerce giant has been increasing its debt load too, which has grown to $50B in Q2 2021.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f8f27effc87360acc99c52dadd22af3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"446\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p>\n<p>In terms of balance sheet strength, Microsoft is clearly in a better position compared to Amazon. Moreover, Microsoft's free cash flow generation is superior to Amazon right now. As you can see below, Microsoft is using its financial strength to execute a massive capital return program that consists of stock buybacks and dividends. Although Amazon lacks a capital return program today, it's only a matter of time before Amazon boasts one of the largest capital return programs among big tech companies. Therefore, Microsoft's advantage in this department may be short lived.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef388b2cab13ed222ddf2ba53ad6067f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"446\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p>\n<p>While Microsoft returns the majority of its operational cash flows back to shareholders, Amazon is investing billions of dollars to drive future revenue (and, by extension, free cash flow) growth. In my opinion, Amazon will continue to outpace Microsoft's revenue growth over the next decade. As Amazon's faster-growing, higher-margin business lines, AWS and Advertising, contribute a larger share of Amazon's revenues over the coming years, its margins are expected to head higher. Hence, Amazon possesses the greater potential for revenue growth and margin expansion compared to Microsoft. To learn more about AWS and Amazon's Ads business, you may read the following notes:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Amazon Web Services -&nbsp;Amazon: Here's What You Should Be Monitoring</li>\n <li>Digital Ads -&nbsp;Amazon: The 'Other' Segment May Be Worth More Than AWS</li>\n</ol>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18e9ff96d611913db9e45fbff0cc34ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Although Amazon appears to be more expensive than Microsoft based on backward-looking trading multiples such as Price-to-Earnings and Price-to-FCF ratios, it's relatively cheaper than Microsoft when we factor in future growth as indicated by the PEG ratios.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68cf436c611eb187de68bf8802e73021\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p>\n<p>In summary, Microsoft is currently performing better than Amazon. However, Amazon's future appears to be a lot brighter than Microsoft. Since the stock markets are forward-looking, I would expect Amazon to outperform Microsoft over the coming years if their relative valuations were identical. With that being said, let us now calculate the intrinsic value of both Microsoft and Amazon along with future expected returns for these tech giants.</p>\n<p>Evaluating the Fair Value And Expected Return of Microsoft And Amazon</p>\n<p>To find the fair values of Microsoft and Amazon, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>In step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.</p></li>\n <li><p>In step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).</p></li>\n <li><p>In step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the 10 years. Then, we arrive at a CAGR using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.</p></li>\n <li>In step 4, we account for dividends.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Assumptions:</b></p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Microsoft</p></td>\n   <td><p>Amazon</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Forward 12-month revenue [A]</p></td>\n   <td><p>$195 billion</p></td>\n   <td><p>$515 billion</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Potential Free Cash Flow Margin [B]</p></td>\n   <td><p>35%</p></td>\n   <td><p>20%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Average diluted shares outstanding [C]</p></td>\n   <td><p>7.5 billion</p></td>\n   <td><p>525 million</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Free cash flow per share [ D = (A * B) / C ]</p></td>\n   <td><p>$9.1</p></td>\n   <td><p>$196.19</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Free cash flow per share growth rate</p></td>\n   <td><p>10%</p></td>\n   <td><p>12.5%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Terminal growth rate</p></td>\n   <td><p>3%</p></td>\n   <td><p>3%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Years of elevated growth</p></td>\n   <td><p>10</p></td>\n   <td><p>10</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Total years to stimulate</p></td>\n   <td><p>100</p></td>\n   <td><p>100</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Discount Rate (Our \"Next Best Alternative\")</p></td>\n   <td><p>9.8%</p></td>\n   <td><p>9.8%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><b>Results:</b></p>\n<p>1) Microsoft:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875546f4aabbb1e580dcc9610c18a5b9\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"729\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8861dcb9fc1fbcd858297426ec52eaf6\" tg-width=\"606\" tg-height=\"771\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p>\n<p><b>2) Amazon:</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8fb43ad416565a9768e919470e59bab\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"731\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a15de5a0494d4557b38c2290017588e9\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"430\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p>\n<p>Summary of Results:</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Current Price</b></td>\n   <td><b>Fair Value</b></td>\n   <td><b>Undervalued (-) or Overvalued (+)</b></td>\n   <td><b>2031 Share Price Target</b></td>\n   <td><b>Total Expected CAGR Return</b></td>\n   <td><b>Rating</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Microsoft</b></td>\n   <td>$301</td>\n   <td>$295</td>\n   <td>+2.15%</td>\n   <td>$1101</td>\n   <td>14.71%</td>\n   <td><i>Modest Buy</i></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Amazon</b></td>\n   <td>$3478</td>\n   <td>$6024</td>\n   <td>-42.27%</td>\n   <td>$22298</td>\n   <td>20.42%</td>\n   <td><i>Strong Buy</i></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>As you can see, Microsoft is slightly overvalued, and investors buying in at $301 can expect to generate CAGR returns of ~14.71% over the next decade, which is slightly below our investment hurdle rate of 15%. Since Microsoft's business fundamentals are robust, I rate it as a modest buy at this price. On the other hand, Amazon's business is facing near-term volatility, and business momentum looks shaky. However, Amazon's stock is deeply undervalued, and this is an opportunity for long-term investors to generate significant alpha. As Amazon's expected CAGR returns are much greater than my hurdle rate, I rate Amazon a strong buy. If I were to choose between Microsoft and Amazon based on business momentum (cloud and otherwise), I would have to go with Microsoft. However, Amazon's stock is massively undervalued while Microsoft is fairly valued. Considering the risk/reward available, I think Amazon is the better buy here.</p>\n<p>Key Takeaway: I rate Amazon a strong buy at $3,478 and Microsoft a modest buy at $301. Amazon is a better buy than Microsoft at this point in time.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon Vs. Microsoft: Two Cloud Computing Giants, One Winning Stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon Vs. Microsoft: Two Cloud Computing Giants, One Winning Stock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-09 11:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453940-amazon-vs-microsoft-two-cloud-computing-giants-one-winning-stock><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nMicrosoft's Azure continues to gain market share in the burgeoning cloud infrastructure services market. However, Amazon's AWS remains in the No.1 position.\nAlthough the cloud wars are ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453940-amazon-vs-microsoft-two-cloud-computing-giants-one-winning-stock\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453940-amazon-vs-microsoft-two-cloud-computing-giants-one-winning-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127517147","content_text":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft's Azure continues to gain market share in the burgeoning cloud infrastructure services market. However, Amazon's AWS remains in the No.1 position.\nAlthough the cloud wars are heating up, both Azure and AWS are performing exceptionally, growing at 51% y/y and 37% y/y, respectively.\nThe global cloud services market is poised to grow at a CAGR of ~15.8% until 2030 to become a $1.6T market. Therefore, cloud providers still have a long growth runway.\nIn this article, I share a comparative financial analysis for Microsoft and Amazon to determine the better buy.\n\nChip Somodevilla/Getty Images News\nIntroduction\nMicrosoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) are competing for the coveted No.1 spot in the cloud infrastructure services market, which is projected to grow from $325B in 2021 to $1,620B (or $1.6T) by 2030, according to areportby Allied Market Research. In Q2, Amazon's AWS revenues grew at 37% year-over-year (marked acceleration) as it continues to lead the cloud infrastructure services market with a 31% market share. However, Microsoft's Azure is outpacing AWS's growth and now commands a market share of 22%.\nSource: canalys.com\nIn the last year or so, the coronavirus pandemic has led to increased cloud infrastructure services spending as workload migration and cloud-native application development accelerated. Naturally, Azure and AWS have emerged as prime beneficiaries of this transformational shift toward the cloud. Although the coronavirus pandemic has receded in previous months, businesses have continued to embrace the cloud, as evidenced by the $5B sequential (q/q) growth in cloud infrastructure services spending in Q2 2021.\nSource: canalys.com\nBoth Microsoft and Amazon are well-diversified big tech giants. However, the cloud opportunity is critical to their future successes. Today, Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud business makes up nearly ~37% of total revenues and ~40% of Microsoft's operating income, and these figures are expected to grow even further in the coming years. In relation to Amazon, AWS's revenues are a small fraction (13% in Q2 2021) of total sales. However, AWS contributes the majority of Amazon's operating income (~60%). And so, I'm not surprised with how ugly this battle is turning out to be. In recent times, we have witnessed dramatic instances such as Amazon's lawsuit for the $10B Jedi contract being awarded to Microsoft,Microsoft's protest to Government Accountability Office in relation to the $10B NSA contract awarded to Amazon, and a top AWS executive - Charlie Bell (once expected to be a successor to Andy Jassy as AWS CEO) -moving over to Microsoft. The competition between Amazon and Microsoft is fearsome. However, I can see ample room for multiple winners in the cloud services market.\nSource: Allied Market Research\nWith massive cloud services growth on the horizon, I expect both Microsoft and Amazon to deliver double-digit revenue growth over the coming decade. Several analysts have projected the cloud services business to become a commodity. However, profitability metrics for AWS and Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud show that it's clearly not a commodity business (at least for now). Azure has been gaining ground on AWS, but it's too soon to tell which of these tech titans will lead the cloud services market over the coming years.\nOver the last 12 months, Microsoft has significantly outperformed Amazon in terms of creating shareholder wealth, as can be observed in the chart below. I attribute Microsoft's outperformance to a multitude of factors, including but not limited to stronger momentum in the cloud, the existence of a massive capital return program, and robust free cash flow generation.\nSource: YCharts\nIn today's article, I will share a comparative financial analysis to determine the better buy among Microsoft and Amazon. Furthermore, we will estimate the fair value and expected returns for both of these blue-chip companies based on the financial statement analysis conducted in this note.\nComparative Financial Analysis: Microsoft vs. Amazon\nI think it's too early to call the cloud services market, and the winners will only be evident in due time. However, it's very likely that Amazon and Microsoft will be dominating this market in 2031. Now, Amazon and Microsoft may be competitors in the cloud, but they happen to be two very different companies with varied core competencies: Amazon - e-commerce, Microsoft - business, and consumer software. Let's carry out a comparative financial analysis to determine the better buy among Microsoft and Amazon.\nSource: YCharts\nIn essence, Microsoft is a high-margin software and services business, while Amazon is a low-margin retail business with some higher-margin business lines such as AWS and Advertising. Since both Amazon and Microsoft are over-covered stocks, I don't think discussing their revenue mix would be of much value. However, let's look at the free cash flow generation of these blue-chip giants to understand their current business momentum.\nAfter receiving a massive pandemic boost, Amazon's free cash flows have turned negative in the last two quarters as the company invests massive amounts of capital (capex spending) in driving future revenue growth. In Q2, Amazon missed revenue estimates by ~$2B, which is further evidence of Amazon losing business momentum. On the other hand, Microsoft's business momentum remained strong in Q2 as the company beat revenue expectations by ~$2B while generating record amounts of free cash flow over the last 12 months. Therefore, it's fair to say that Microsoft is outperforming Amazon for the time being.\nSource: YCharts\nAt the end of Q2, Microsoft had nearly $130B of cash and short-term investments on its balance sheet vs. financial debt of $58B (down from ~$90B debt in Dec'17). Over the last five years, Amazon's cash reserves have been building up, which now stand at ~$90B. However, the e-commerce giant has been increasing its debt load too, which has grown to $50B in Q2 2021.\nSource: YCharts\nIn terms of balance sheet strength, Microsoft is clearly in a better position compared to Amazon. Moreover, Microsoft's free cash flow generation is superior to Amazon right now. As you can see below, Microsoft is using its financial strength to execute a massive capital return program that consists of stock buybacks and dividends. Although Amazon lacks a capital return program today, it's only a matter of time before Amazon boasts one of the largest capital return programs among big tech companies. Therefore, Microsoft's advantage in this department may be short lived.\nSource: YCharts\nWhile Microsoft returns the majority of its operational cash flows back to shareholders, Amazon is investing billions of dollars to drive future revenue (and, by extension, free cash flow) growth. In my opinion, Amazon will continue to outpace Microsoft's revenue growth over the next decade. As Amazon's faster-growing, higher-margin business lines, AWS and Advertising, contribute a larger share of Amazon's revenues over the coming years, its margins are expected to head higher. Hence, Amazon possesses the greater potential for revenue growth and margin expansion compared to Microsoft. To learn more about AWS and Amazon's Ads business, you may read the following notes:\n\nAmazon Web Services - Amazon: Here's What You Should Be Monitoring\nDigital Ads - Amazon: The 'Other' Segment May Be Worth More Than AWS\n\nSource: YCharts\nAlthough Amazon appears to be more expensive than Microsoft based on backward-looking trading multiples such as Price-to-Earnings and Price-to-FCF ratios, it's relatively cheaper than Microsoft when we factor in future growth as indicated by the PEG ratios.\nSource: YCharts\nIn summary, Microsoft is currently performing better than Amazon. However, Amazon's future appears to be a lot brighter than Microsoft. Since the stock markets are forward-looking, I would expect Amazon to outperform Microsoft over the coming years if their relative valuations were identical. With that being said, let us now calculate the intrinsic value of both Microsoft and Amazon along with future expected returns for these tech giants.\nEvaluating the Fair Value And Expected Return of Microsoft And Amazon\nTo find the fair values of Microsoft and Amazon, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:\n\nIn step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.\nIn step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).\nIn step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the 10 years. Then, we arrive at a CAGR using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.\nIn step 4, we account for dividends.\n\nAssumptions:\n\n\n\n\nMicrosoft\nAmazon\n\n\nForward 12-month revenue [A]\n$195 billion\n$515 billion\n\n\nPotential Free Cash Flow Margin [B]\n35%\n20%\n\n\nAverage diluted shares outstanding [C]\n7.5 billion\n525 million\n\n\nFree cash flow per share [ D = (A * B) / C ]\n$9.1\n$196.19\n\n\nFree cash flow per share growth rate\n10%\n12.5%\n\n\nTerminal growth rate\n3%\n3%\n\n\nYears of elevated growth\n10\n10\n\n\nTotal years to stimulate\n100\n100\n\n\nDiscount Rate (Our \"Next Best Alternative\")\n9.8%\n9.8%\n\n\n\nResults:\n1) Microsoft:\n\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\n2) Amazon:\n\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\nSummary of Results:\n\n\n\nCurrent Price\nFair Value\nUndervalued (-) or Overvalued (+)\n2031 Share Price Target\nTotal Expected CAGR Return\nRating\n\n\nMicrosoft\n$301\n$295\n+2.15%\n$1101\n14.71%\nModest Buy\n\n\nAmazon\n$3478\n$6024\n-42.27%\n$22298\n20.42%\nStrong Buy\n\n\n\nAs you can see, Microsoft is slightly overvalued, and investors buying in at $301 can expect to generate CAGR returns of ~14.71% over the next decade, which is slightly below our investment hurdle rate of 15%. Since Microsoft's business fundamentals are robust, I rate it as a modest buy at this price. On the other hand, Amazon's business is facing near-term volatility, and business momentum looks shaky. However, Amazon's stock is deeply undervalued, and this is an opportunity for long-term investors to generate significant alpha. As Amazon's expected CAGR returns are much greater than my hurdle rate, I rate Amazon a strong buy. If I were to choose between Microsoft and Amazon based on business momentum (cloud and otherwise), I would have to go with Microsoft. However, Amazon's stock is massively undervalued while Microsoft is fairly valued. Considering the risk/reward available, I think Amazon is the better buy here.\nKey Takeaway: I rate Amazon a strong buy at $3,478 and Microsoft a modest buy at $301. Amazon is a better buy than Microsoft at this point in time.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9,"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2559,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814253095,"gmtCreate":1630830008217,"gmtModify":1676530402774,"author":{"id":"3581898537749965","authorId":"3581898537749965","name":"Couch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c9b82fccf054c247e5e431e45f3550","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581898537749965","authorIdStr":"3581898537749965"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/814253095","repostId":"2164803413","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814259778,"gmtCreate":1630829996294,"gmtModify":1676530402773,"author":{"id":"3581898537749965","authorId":"3581898537749965","name":"Couch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c9b82fccf054c247e5e431e45f3550","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581898537749965","authorIdStr":"3581898537749965"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/814259778","repostId":"2164803413","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1211,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814946936,"gmtCreate":1630752147225,"gmtModify":1676530390378,"author":{"id":"3581898537749965","authorId":"3581898537749965","name":"Couch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c9b82fccf054c247e5e431e45f3550","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581898537749965","authorIdStr":"3581898537749965"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/814946936","repostId":"1196145266","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1047,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815584964,"gmtCreate":1630694374358,"gmtModify":1676530378458,"author":{"id":"3581898537749965","authorId":"3581898537749965","name":"Couch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c9b82fccf054c247e5e431e45f3550","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581898537749965","authorIdStr":"3581898537749965"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/815584964","repostId":"1191909803","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191909803","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630681164,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191909803?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-03 22:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Future FinTech Stock Surges On Forging Into Supply Chain Software Business","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191909803","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Future FinTech Group Inc  inked a term sheet to acquire 51% of the equity of Shanghai Dianfa Interne","content":"<div>\n<p>Future FinTech Group Inc  inked a term sheet to acquire 51% of the equity of Shanghai Dianfa Internet Technology Co., Ltd for $2.8 million.\nFuture FinTech will pay $0.93 in cash and the remaining $1.8...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/09/22796320/future-fintech-stock-surges-on-forging-into-supply-chain-software-business\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Future FinTech Stock Surges On Forging Into Supply Chain Software Business</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFuture FinTech Stock Surges On Forging Into Supply Chain Software Business\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-03 22:59 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/09/22796320/future-fintech-stock-surges-on-forging-into-supply-chain-software-business><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Future FinTech Group Inc  inked a term sheet to acquire 51% of the equity of Shanghai Dianfa Internet Technology Co., Ltd for $2.8 million.\nFuture FinTech will pay $0.93 in cash and the remaining $1.8...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/09/22796320/future-fintech-stock-surges-on-forging-into-supply-chain-software-business\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FTFT":"富册金融科技"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/09/22796320/future-fintech-stock-surges-on-forging-into-supply-chain-software-business","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191909803","content_text":"Future FinTech Group Inc  inked a term sheet to acquire 51% of the equity of Shanghai Dianfa Internet Technology Co., Ltd for $2.8 million.\nFuture FinTech will pay $0.93 in cash and the remaining $1.8 million in shares.\nIt represents Future FinTech's aim to enter SMEs' critical supply chain finance business and the microfinance sector.\nFuture FinTech held $72 million in cash and equivalents as of June 30.\nRecently, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd backed Ant Group, and TikTok parent ByteDance Ltd reduced their stakes in their fintech businesses following China's fintech crackdown.\nPrice Action:FTFT shares traded higher by 12.43% at $2.90 on the last check Friday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FTFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812613878,"gmtCreate":1630581787794,"gmtModify":1676530346432,"author":{"id":"3581898537749965","authorId":"3581898537749965","name":"Couch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c9b82fccf054c247e5e431e45f3550","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581898537749965","authorIdStr":"3581898537749965"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/812613878","repostId":"2164417208","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1033,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816193658,"gmtCreate":1630474617974,"gmtModify":1676530313477,"author":{"id":"3581898537749965","authorId":"3581898537749965","name":"Couch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c9b82fccf054c247e5e431e45f3550","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581898537749965","authorIdStr":"3581898537749965"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/816193658","repostId":"1121703403","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121703403","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630468161,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1121703403?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-01 11:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"September Is the Stock Market’s Worst Month. History Says This Time Could Be Different.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121703403","media":"Barron's","summary":"The stock market usually performs poorly in September. This year could be different, precisely becau","content":"<p>The stock market usually performs poorly in September. This year could be different, precisely because shares have already risen so much for the year.</p>\n<p>September is usually one of the worst months of the year for the stock market, but shares do better at times when they have already done well. Over the years dating back to 1928, the average September return for the S&amp;P 500 has been a loss of 0.99%. That makes the month far worse than May, which ranks second in providing gloom for investors with an average loss of 0.11%.</p>\n<p>History indicates that September 2021 could be a good month for stocks. In the years since 1928 when the S&amp;P 500 rose by more than 13% for the first six months, the index’s median September gain was 1.4%, according to Fundstrat. Through June this year, the broad market benchmark rallied 14%.</p>\n<p>The index rose in September in 63% of the years when the market charged ahead from January through June, while it fell during the month in 54% of the years during that overall span.</p>\n<p>The stock market’s recent rise has bolstered hopes the index will do well for the rest of the year. Strategists at Wells Fargo recently lifted their target for the S&amp;P 500 to a level that reflects more than 6% upside from the index’s current level. They say that in years in which the index sees double-digit gains in percentage terms for the first eight months, it rises another 8% to top off the year. The data goes back to 1990.</p>\n<p>The index closed Thursday at 4522.68, ending August with a year-to-date gain of 20.4%.</p>\n<p>Just be aware that the ride upward could be bumpy. The S&amp;P 500 hasn’t had a pullback of more than 5% this year. With several risks on the horizon, including a corporate-tax increase that could reduce aggregate S&amp;P 500 earnings per share by 5%, stocks could see a correction.</p>\n<p>“Markets are ‘overbought’ and due for a pullback,” writes Tom Lee, Fundstrat’s head of research. Just don’t be surprised to see the market gain some more.</p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>September Is the Stock Market’s Worst Month. History Says This Time Could Be Different.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSeptember Is the Stock Market’s Worst Month. History Says This Time Could Be Different.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-01 11:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/september-stocks-what-happens-next-51630442637?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barron's</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The stock market usually performs poorly in September. This year could be different, precisely because shares have already risen so much for the year.\nSeptember is usually one of the worst months of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/september-stocks-what-happens-next-51630442637?mod=hp_LATEST\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/september-stocks-what-happens-next-51630442637?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121703403","content_text":"The stock market usually performs poorly in September. This year could be different, precisely because shares have already risen so much for the year.\nSeptember is usually one of the worst months of the year for the stock market, but shares do better at times when they have already done well. Over the years dating back to 1928, the average September return for the S&P 500 has been a loss of 0.99%. That makes the month far worse than May, which ranks second in providing gloom for investors with an average loss of 0.11%.\nHistory indicates that September 2021 could be a good month for stocks. In the years since 1928 when the S&P 500 rose by more than 13% for the first six months, the index’s median September gain was 1.4%, according to Fundstrat. Through June this year, the broad market benchmark rallied 14%.\nThe index rose in September in 63% of the years when the market charged ahead from January through June, while it fell during the month in 54% of the years during that overall span.\nThe stock market’s recent rise has bolstered hopes the index will do well for the rest of the year. Strategists at Wells Fargo recently lifted their target for the S&P 500 to a level that reflects more than 6% upside from the index’s current level. They say that in years in which the index sees double-digit gains in percentage terms for the first eight months, it rises another 8% to top off the year. The data goes back to 1990.\nThe index closed Thursday at 4522.68, ending August with a year-to-date gain of 20.4%.\nJust be aware that the ride upward could be bumpy. The S&P 500 hasn’t had a pullback of more than 5% this year. With several risks on the horizon, including a corporate-tax increase that could reduce aggregate S&P 500 earnings per share by 5%, stocks could see a correction.\n“Markets are ‘overbought’ and due for a pullback,” writes Tom Lee, Fundstrat’s head of research. Just don’t be surprised to see the market gain some more.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":876,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818108872,"gmtCreate":1630380797696,"gmtModify":1676530286845,"author":{"id":"3581898537749965","authorId":"3581898537749965","name":"Couch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c9b82fccf054c247e5e431e45f3550","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581898537749965","authorIdStr":"3581898537749965"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/818108872","repostId":"1168575044","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":839,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813388868,"gmtCreate":1630131699954,"gmtModify":1676530232642,"author":{"id":"3581898537749965","authorId":"3581898537749965","name":"Couch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c9b82fccf054c247e5e431e45f3550","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581898537749965","authorIdStr":"3581898537749965"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/813388868","repostId":"2162733980","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":821,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810298698,"gmtCreate":1629978370514,"gmtModify":1676530190075,"author":{"id":"3581898537749965","authorId":"3581898537749965","name":"Couch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c9b82fccf054c247e5e431e45f3550","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581898537749965","authorIdStr":"3581898537749965"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/810298698","repostId":"2162095933","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2162095933","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1629977561,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2162095933?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-26 19:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Are Investors Cheering Ulta Beauty Stock?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2162095933","media":"Benzinga","summary":"\n","content":"<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ULTA\">Ulta Salon Cosmetics &amp; Fragrance</a></b> (NASDAQ:ULTA)&nbsp;reported second-quarter FY21 sales growth of 60.2%&nbsp;year-on-year, to $1.97 billion, beating the analyst consensus of $1.72 billion. Sales improved 18% from Q2 FY19.</p>\n<p>Comparable sales increased 56.3%, versus a 26.7% decline in Q2 FY20 and 6.2% growth in Q2 FY19.</p>\n<p>The gross margin for the quarter expanded 1380 basis points Y/Y to 40.6% and 420 basis points from Q2 FY19.</p>\n<p>The operating margin was 16.9%, and operating income for the quarter rose 2496% Y/Y to $332.3 million.</p>\n<p>The company held $770.1 million in cash and equivalents as of July 31, 2021.</p>\n<p>Net cash provided by operating activities for the six months totaled $401.4 million.</p>\n<p>EPS of $4.56 beat the analyst consensus of $2.42.</p>\n<p><b>Outlook</b>: Ulta Beauty raised FY21 sales outlook to $8.1 billion - $8.3 billion (prior $7.7 billion - $7.8 billion) versus the consensus of $7.88 billion.</p>\n<p>The company expects FY21 EPS of $14.50 - $14.70 (prior $11.50 - $11.95) versus the consensus of $12.28.</p>\n<p><b>Analyst Ratings</b>:&nbsp;<b>Deutsche Bank</b>&nbsp;maintains Ulta Beauty with a Buy and raises the price target from $410 to $417.</p>\n<p><b>Price Action:</b>&nbsp;ULTA shares are trading higher by 5.31% at $410.60 in premarket on the last check Thursday.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Are Investors Cheering Ulta Beauty Stock?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Are Investors Cheering Ulta Beauty Stock?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-26 19:32</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ULTA\">Ulta Salon Cosmetics &amp; Fragrance</a></b> (NASDAQ:ULTA)&nbsp;reported second-quarter FY21 sales growth of 60.2%&nbsp;year-on-year, to $1.97 billion, beating the analyst consensus of $1.72 billion. Sales improved 18% from Q2 FY19.</p>\n<p>Comparable sales increased 56.3%, versus a 26.7% decline in Q2 FY20 and 6.2% growth in Q2 FY19.</p>\n<p>The gross margin for the quarter expanded 1380 basis points Y/Y to 40.6% and 420 basis points from Q2 FY19.</p>\n<p>The operating margin was 16.9%, and operating income for the quarter rose 2496% Y/Y to $332.3 million.</p>\n<p>The company held $770.1 million in cash and equivalents as of July 31, 2021.</p>\n<p>Net cash provided by operating activities for the six months totaled $401.4 million.</p>\n<p>EPS of $4.56 beat the analyst consensus of $2.42.</p>\n<p><b>Outlook</b>: Ulta Beauty raised FY21 sales outlook to $8.1 billion - $8.3 billion (prior $7.7 billion - $7.8 billion) versus the consensus of $7.88 billion.</p>\n<p>The company expects FY21 EPS of $14.50 - $14.70 (prior $11.50 - $11.95) versus the consensus of $12.28.</p>\n<p><b>Analyst Ratings</b>:&nbsp;<b>Deutsche Bank</b>&nbsp;maintains Ulta Beauty with a Buy and raises the price target from $410 to $417.</p>\n<p><b>Price Action:</b>&nbsp;ULTA shares are trading higher by 5.31% at $410.60 in premarket on the last check Thursday.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ULTA":"Ulta美容"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2162095933","content_text":"Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance (NASDAQ:ULTA) reported second-quarter FY21 sales growth of 60.2% year-on-year, to $1.97 billion, beating the analyst consensus of $1.72 billion. Sales improved 18% from Q2 FY19.\nComparable sales increased 56.3%, versus a 26.7% decline in Q2 FY20 and 6.2% growth in Q2 FY19.\nThe gross margin for the quarter expanded 1380 basis points Y/Y to 40.6% and 420 basis points from Q2 FY19.\nThe operating margin was 16.9%, and operating income for the quarter rose 2496% Y/Y to $332.3 million.\nThe company held $770.1 million in cash and equivalents as of July 31, 2021.\nNet cash provided by operating activities for the six months totaled $401.4 million.\nEPS of $4.56 beat the analyst consensus of $2.42.\nOutlook: Ulta Beauty raised FY21 sales outlook to $8.1 billion - $8.3 billion (prior $7.7 billion - $7.8 billion) versus the consensus of $7.88 billion.\nThe company expects FY21 EPS of $14.50 - $14.70 (prior $11.50 - $11.95) versus the consensus of $12.28.\nAnalyst Ratings: Deutsche Bank maintains Ulta Beauty with a Buy and raises the price target from $410 to $417.\nPrice Action: ULTA shares are trading higher by 5.31% at $410.60 in premarket on the last check Thursday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ULTA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":732,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834479628,"gmtCreate":1629823642164,"gmtModify":1676530143569,"author":{"id":"3581898537749965","authorId":"3581898537749965","name":"Couch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c9b82fccf054c247e5e431e45f3550","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581898537749965","authorIdStr":"3581898537749965"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834479628","repostId":"1147501136","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147501136","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629817852,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147501136?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-24 23:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Berkshire Hathaway Remains Undervalued","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147501136","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nCEO Warren Buffett has bought back a large number of shares in 2020 in the first half of 20","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>CEO Warren Buffett has bought back a large number of shares in 2020 in the first half of 2021.</li>\n <li>First half 2021 pre-tax operating earnings for manufacturing and service/retailing are up nicely over the first half of 2020.</li>\n <li>The stock portfolio is now in excess of $300 billion!</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b1ec40867d5f48e0522635854570624\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>RiverNorthPhotography/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>My thesis is that Berkshire Hathaway(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B)is undervalued. CEO Warren Buffett has been taking advantage of this by buying back shares. He repurchased the equivalent of 80,998 “A” shares in 2020 which increased the ownership for existing shareholders by 5.2%. In the first half of this year, the 2Q2110-Qcash flow statement shows $12.6 billion in buybacks which is more than the $6.7 billion they spent in the first half of 2020. In some ways CEO Buffett can be reticent in terms of vocalizing things when the stock is cheap; his buyback actions speak louder than his words.</p>\n<p>Looking at the 2Q21 10-Q balance sheet, the first 5 lines are a big part of our valuation estimate:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8aafe372259b0d3a4c58271edd28993\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"772\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image Source: 2Q21 10-Q</span></p>\n<p><b>BNSF $115 Billion</b></p>\n<p>BNSF has many similarities to Union Pacific(NYSE:UNP)including the approximate level of debt to enterprise value. The 2Q21 Union Pacific10-Qshows 652,122,933 shares outstanding as of July 16, 2021. Their share price for June 30, 2021 was $219.93 implying a June 30th market cap of $143.4 billion. I believe the market cap of BNSF is at least 80% of Union Pacific’s or $115 billion.</p>\n<p><b>Berkshire Hathaway Energy (“BHE”) $48.6 Billion</b></p>\n<p>We can use the prices at which BHE was repurchased for a valuation estimate but that information is getting dated. Per the BHE 2Q2110-Q, the last batch was during the first half of 2020 when 180,358 shares were repurchased for $126 million implying a share price of $698.61. The BHE 2Q21 10-Q shows 76,368,874 shares outstanding as of August 5, 2021, implying a market cap of $53.4 billion if the price from the first half of 2020 is still sound.</p>\n<p>Berkshire’s 2Q21 10-Q says they own 91.1% meaning non-controlling interests own the rest. In other words, Berkshire owns $48.6 billion and non-controlling interests own $4.8 billion.</p>\n<p><b>Other Non-Insurance Subsidiaries $195 Billion</b></p>\n<p>The 2Q21 10-Q breaks down revenue and pre-tax earnings under Note 23, Business segment data:</p>\n<p><i>Image Source: 2Q21 10-Q</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f01f33ed3856e8b1eff604acc2ebe65\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"522\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image Source: 2Q21 10-Q</span></p>\n<p>I like to use a pre-tax earnings multiple of 13 times for manufacturing, McLane and service/retailing. Their 1H21 pre-tax earnings were $5.2 billion, $0.2 billion and $2.1 billion, respectively. These numbers are a huge improvement over the first half of 2020! Summing them up and annualizing gives us $15 billion. Applying a multiple of 13 times brings us to $195 billion.</p>\n<p>Cash, T-bills &amp; Fixed Maturities $161.2 Billion</p>\n<p>This is the sum of the first 3 lines on the balance sheet which are $38.9 billion in cash and equivalents plus $101.8 billion in T-bills plus $20.5 billion in fixed maturities.</p>\n<p><b>Stocks $307.9 Billion</b></p>\n<p>Per the 4th line in the balance sheet, we have $307.9 billion in stocks. Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)is by far the biggest part of this portfolio. The13Fthrough June 2021 shows $121.5 billion in Apple stock.</p>\n<p><b>Equity Method Investments $16.5 Billion</b></p>\n<p>The 5th line of the balance sheet shows $16.5 billion here. Note 5, Equity method investments, on the 2020 10-K showed that the carrying value of $13.3 billion for Kraft Heinz(NASDAQ:KHC)on the balance sheet was $2 billion higher than the fair value of $11.3 billion. However note 5 on the 2Q21 10-Q shows that the fair value went up to the same range as the carrying value so we don’t need to make any adjustments here.</p>\n<p><b>Deferred Tax Liability $(27) Billion</b></p>\n<p>Note 18, Income taxes, isn’t as detailed on the 10-Qs as on the 10-Ks. I’m sticking with the $27 billion net investment tax liability estimate used in my February 2021article.</p>\n<p><b>Non-Controlling Interests $(3.6) Billion</b></p>\n<p>The balance sheet shows $8.4 billion in non-controlling interests but we attributed $4.8 billion to BHE investors. As such, there is another $3.6 billion or so of non-controlling interests outside of BHE.</p>\n<p><b>Other Considerations $0</b></p>\n<p>I treat the insurance operations and the float liability as a wash. I can see why fastidious accountants aren’t crazy about this but I don’t think it makes a huge difference to the overall valuation whether or not these are broken out separately.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation Chart</b></p>\n<p>The 2Q21 says that on an equivalent Class A common stock basis, there were 1,511,229 shares outstanding as of June 30, 2021:</p>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81717a4c648c5027fde69b68d33cf46f\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"695\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c490184d538a90c0980d497e3b964523\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"584\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr></tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Here is a more visual interpretation:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0183d76b73ebb2503f940ca5c3eec85\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"558\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image Source: Author’s spreadsheet</span></p>\n<p>Of course the above chart is somewhere near the middle of my range. Rather than thinking about a valuation of $814 billion exactly, I think it could be approximately $50 billion higher or lower such that my range with round numbers to the nearest $5 billion is about $765 billion to $865 billion.</p>\n<p>Given the August 23rd (BRK.A) share price of $425,000, and the 1,511,229 class A share equivalents, the implied market cap is $642 billion. Seeing as the market cap is well below my valuation range, I think the stock is priced very reasonably for long-term investors.</p>\n<p>Some think it will be calamitous when CEO Buffett retires but he has built the company with a stable architecture that should hold up well for years to come.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Berkshire Hathaway Remains Undervalued</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBerkshire Hathaway Remains Undervalued\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-24 23:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451491-berkshire-hathaway-remains-undervalued><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nCEO Warren Buffett has bought back a large number of shares in 2020 in the first half of 2021.\nFirst half 2021 pre-tax operating earnings for manufacturing and service/retailing are up nicely...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451491-berkshire-hathaway-remains-undervalued\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451491-berkshire-hathaway-remains-undervalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147501136","content_text":"Summary\n\nCEO Warren Buffett has bought back a large number of shares in 2020 in the first half of 2021.\nFirst half 2021 pre-tax operating earnings for manufacturing and service/retailing are up nicely over the first half of 2020.\nThe stock portfolio is now in excess of $300 billion!\n\nRiverNorthPhotography/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nMy thesis is that Berkshire Hathaway(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B)is undervalued. CEO Warren Buffett has been taking advantage of this by buying back shares. He repurchased the equivalent of 80,998 “A” shares in 2020 which increased the ownership for existing shareholders by 5.2%. In the first half of this year, the 2Q2110-Qcash flow statement shows $12.6 billion in buybacks which is more than the $6.7 billion they spent in the first half of 2020. In some ways CEO Buffett can be reticent in terms of vocalizing things when the stock is cheap; his buyback actions speak louder than his words.\nLooking at the 2Q21 10-Q balance sheet, the first 5 lines are a big part of our valuation estimate:\nImage Source: 2Q21 10-Q\nBNSF $115 Billion\nBNSF has many similarities to Union Pacific(NYSE:UNP)including the approximate level of debt to enterprise value. The 2Q21 Union Pacific10-Qshows 652,122,933 shares outstanding as of July 16, 2021. Their share price for June 30, 2021 was $219.93 implying a June 30th market cap of $143.4 billion. I believe the market cap of BNSF is at least 80% of Union Pacific’s or $115 billion.\nBerkshire Hathaway Energy (“BHE”) $48.6 Billion\nWe can use the prices at which BHE was repurchased for a valuation estimate but that information is getting dated. Per the BHE 2Q2110-Q, the last batch was during the first half of 2020 when 180,358 shares were repurchased for $126 million implying a share price of $698.61. The BHE 2Q21 10-Q shows 76,368,874 shares outstanding as of August 5, 2021, implying a market cap of $53.4 billion if the price from the first half of 2020 is still sound.\nBerkshire’s 2Q21 10-Q says they own 91.1% meaning non-controlling interests own the rest. In other words, Berkshire owns $48.6 billion and non-controlling interests own $4.8 billion.\nOther Non-Insurance Subsidiaries $195 Billion\nThe 2Q21 10-Q breaks down revenue and pre-tax earnings under Note 23, Business segment data:\nImage Source: 2Q21 10-Q\nImage Source: 2Q21 10-Q\nI like to use a pre-tax earnings multiple of 13 times for manufacturing, McLane and service/retailing. Their 1H21 pre-tax earnings were $5.2 billion, $0.2 billion and $2.1 billion, respectively. These numbers are a huge improvement over the first half of 2020! Summing them up and annualizing gives us $15 billion. Applying a multiple of 13 times brings us to $195 billion.\nCash, T-bills & Fixed Maturities $161.2 Billion\nThis is the sum of the first 3 lines on the balance sheet which are $38.9 billion in cash and equivalents plus $101.8 billion in T-bills plus $20.5 billion in fixed maturities.\nStocks $307.9 Billion\nPer the 4th line in the balance sheet, we have $307.9 billion in stocks. Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)is by far the biggest part of this portfolio. The13Fthrough June 2021 shows $121.5 billion in Apple stock.\nEquity Method Investments $16.5 Billion\nThe 5th line of the balance sheet shows $16.5 billion here. Note 5, Equity method investments, on the 2020 10-K showed that the carrying value of $13.3 billion for Kraft Heinz(NASDAQ:KHC)on the balance sheet was $2 billion higher than the fair value of $11.3 billion. However note 5 on the 2Q21 10-Q shows that the fair value went up to the same range as the carrying value so we don’t need to make any adjustments here.\nDeferred Tax Liability $(27) Billion\nNote 18, Income taxes, isn’t as detailed on the 10-Qs as on the 10-Ks. I’m sticking with the $27 billion net investment tax liability estimate used in my February 2021article.\nNon-Controlling Interests $(3.6) Billion\nThe balance sheet shows $8.4 billion in non-controlling interests but we attributed $4.8 billion to BHE investors. As such, there is another $3.6 billion or so of non-controlling interests outside of BHE.\nOther Considerations $0\nI treat the insurance operations and the float liability as a wash. I can see why fastidious accountants aren’t crazy about this but I don’t think it makes a huge difference to the overall valuation whether or not these are broken out separately.\nValuation Chart\nThe 2Q21 says that on an equivalent Class A common stock basis, there were 1,511,229 shares outstanding as of June 30, 2021:\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nHere is a more visual interpretation:\nImage Source: Author’s spreadsheet\nOf course the above chart is somewhere near the middle of my range. Rather than thinking about a valuation of $814 billion exactly, I think it could be approximately $50 billion higher or lower such that my range with round numbers to the nearest $5 billion is about $765 billion to $865 billion.\nGiven the August 23rd (BRK.A) share price of $425,000, and the 1,511,229 class A share equivalents, the implied market cap is $642 billion. Seeing as the market cap is well below my valuation range, I think the stock is priced very reasonably for long-term investors.\nSome think it will be calamitous when CEO Buffett retires but he has built the company with a stable architecture that should hold up well for years to come.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":888248029,"gmtCreate":1631502349761,"gmtModify":1676530559634,"author":{"id":"3581898537749965","authorId":"3581898537749965","name":"Couch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c9b82fccf054c247e5e431e45f3550","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581898537749965","authorIdStr":"3581898537749965"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;Mhi","listText":"&nbsp;Mhi","text":"Mhi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/888248029","repostId":"2166303388","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2954,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883632039,"gmtCreate":1631237006121,"gmtModify":1676530504190,"author":{"id":"3581898537749965","authorId":"3581898537749965","name":"Couch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c9b82fccf054c247e5e431e45f3550","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581898537749965","authorIdStr":"3581898537749965"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/883632039","repostId":"1133278609","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818108872,"gmtCreate":1630380797696,"gmtModify":1676530286845,"author":{"id":"3581898537749965","authorId":"3581898537749965","name":"Couch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c9b82fccf054c247e5e431e45f3550","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581898537749965","authorIdStr":"3581898537749965"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/818108872","repostId":"1168575044","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":839,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889521256,"gmtCreate":1631160313275,"gmtModify":1676530483800,"author":{"id":"3581898537749965","authorId":"3581898537749965","name":"Couch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c9b82fccf054c247e5e431e45f3550","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581898537749965","authorIdStr":"3581898537749965"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889521256","repostId":"1127517147","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127517147","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631158589,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1127517147?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-09 11:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon Vs. Microsoft: Two Cloud Computing Giants, One Winning Stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127517147","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft's Azure continues to gain market share in the burgeoning cloud infrastructure ser","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Microsoft's Azure continues to gain market share in the burgeoning cloud infrastructure services market. However, Amazon's AWS remains in the No.1 position.</li>\n <li>Although the cloud wars are heating up, both Azure and AWS are performing exceptionally, growing at 51% y/y and 37% y/y, respectively.</li>\n <li>The global cloud services market is poised to grow at a CAGR of ~15.8% until 2030 to become a $1.6T market. Therefore, cloud providers still have a long growth runway.</li>\n <li>In this article, I share a comparative financial analysis for Microsoft and Amazon to determine the better buy.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69eeb847ac2a68d9068ee3d90ae2ec5c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images News</span></p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) are competing for the coveted No.1 spot in the cloud infrastructure services market, which is projected to grow from $325B in 2021 to $1,620B (or $1.6T) by 2030, according to areportby Allied Market Research. In Q2, Amazon's AWS revenues grew at 37% year-over-year (marked acceleration) as it continues to lead the cloud infrastructure services market with a 31% market share. However, Microsoft's Azure is outpacing AWS's growth and now commands a market share of 22%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60b929cfb3eb06a50b14a942b980bd8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: canalys.com</span></p>\n<p>In the last year or so, the coronavirus pandemic has led to increased cloud infrastructure services spending as workload migration and cloud-native application development accelerated. Naturally, Azure and AWS have emerged as prime beneficiaries of this transformational shift toward the cloud. Although the coronavirus pandemic has receded in previous months, businesses have continued to embrace the cloud, as evidenced by the $5B sequential (q/q) growth in cloud infrastructure services spending in Q2 2021.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab77f327d4b4f980b703dd05a727a8fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: canalys.com</span></p>\n<p>Both Microsoft and Amazon are well-diversified big tech giants. However, the cloud opportunity is critical to their future successes. Today, Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud business makes up nearly ~37% of total revenues and ~40% of Microsoft's operating income, and these figures are expected to grow even further in the coming years. In relation to Amazon, AWS's revenues are a small fraction (13% in Q2 2021) of total sales. However, AWS contributes the majority of Amazon's operating income (~60%). And so, I'm not surprised with how ugly this battle is turning out to be. In recent times, we have witnessed dramatic instances such as&nbsp;Amazon's lawsuit&nbsp;for the $10B Jedi contract being awarded to Microsoft,Microsoft's protest&nbsp;to Government Accountability Office in relation to the $10B NSA contract awarded to Amazon, and a top AWS executive - Charlie Bell (once expected to be a successor to Andy Jassy as AWS CEO) -moving over to Microsoft. The competition between Amazon and Microsoft is fearsome. However, I can see ample room for multiple winners in the cloud services market.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7fd2cfae285856cb75e5ced740ef320\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Allied Market Research</span></p>\n<p>With massive cloud services growth on the horizon, I expect both Microsoft and Amazon to deliver double-digit revenue growth over the coming decade. Several analysts have projected the cloud services business to become a commodity. However, profitability metrics for AWS and Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud show that it's clearly not a commodity business (at least for now). Azure has been gaining ground on AWS, but it's too soon to tell which of these tech titans will lead the cloud services market over the coming years.</p>\n<p>Over the last 12 months, Microsoft has significantly outperformed Amazon in terms of creating shareholder wealth, as can be observed in the chart below. I attribute Microsoft's outperformance to a multitude of factors, including but not limited to stronger momentum in the cloud, the existence of a massive capital return program, and robust free cash flow generation.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a47beb283bcc911ba9ad25c4c2c01f91\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p>\n<p>In today's article, I will share a comparative financial analysis to determine the better buy among Microsoft and Amazon. Furthermore, we will estimate the fair value and expected returns for both of these blue-chip companies based on the financial statement analysis conducted in this note.</p>\n<p><b>Comparative Financial Analysis: Microsoft vs. Amazon</b></p>\n<p>I think it's too early to call the cloud services market, and the winners will only be evident in due time. However, it's very likely that Amazon and Microsoft will be dominating this market in 2031. Now, Amazon and Microsoft may be competitors in the cloud, but they happen to be two very different companies with varied core competencies: Amazon - e-commerce, Microsoft - business, and consumer software. Let's carry out a comparative financial analysis to determine the better buy among Microsoft and Amazon.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d675b34f8dc1b88db5722fa7be591b9f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p>\n<p>In essence, Microsoft is a high-margin software and services business, while Amazon is a low-margin retail business with some higher-margin business lines such as AWS and Advertising. Since both Amazon and Microsoft are over-covered stocks, I don't think discussing their revenue mix would be of much value. However, let's look at the free cash flow generation of these blue-chip giants to understand their current business momentum.</p>\n<p>After receiving a massive pandemic boost, Amazon's free cash flows have turned negative in the last two quarters as the company invests massive amounts of capital (capex spending) in driving future revenue growth. In Q2, Amazon missed revenue estimates by ~$2B, which is further evidence of Amazon losing business momentum. On the other hand, Microsoft's business momentum remained strong in Q2 as the company beat revenue expectations by ~$2B while generating record amounts of free cash flow over the last 12 months. Therefore, it's fair to say that Microsoft is outperforming Amazon for the time being.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ed96043009b5528ed09d4e736d1833d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"446\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p>\n<p>At the end of Q2, Microsoft had nearly $130B of cash and short-term investments on its balance sheet vs. financial debt of $58B (down from ~$90B debt in Dec'17). Over the last five years, Amazon's cash reserves have been building up, which now stand at ~$90B. However, the e-commerce giant has been increasing its debt load too, which has grown to $50B in Q2 2021.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f8f27effc87360acc99c52dadd22af3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"446\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p>\n<p>In terms of balance sheet strength, Microsoft is clearly in a better position compared to Amazon. Moreover, Microsoft's free cash flow generation is superior to Amazon right now. As you can see below, Microsoft is using its financial strength to execute a massive capital return program that consists of stock buybacks and dividends. Although Amazon lacks a capital return program today, it's only a matter of time before Amazon boasts one of the largest capital return programs among big tech companies. Therefore, Microsoft's advantage in this department may be short lived.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef388b2cab13ed222ddf2ba53ad6067f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"446\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p>\n<p>While Microsoft returns the majority of its operational cash flows back to shareholders, Amazon is investing billions of dollars to drive future revenue (and, by extension, free cash flow) growth. In my opinion, Amazon will continue to outpace Microsoft's revenue growth over the next decade. As Amazon's faster-growing, higher-margin business lines, AWS and Advertising, contribute a larger share of Amazon's revenues over the coming years, its margins are expected to head higher. Hence, Amazon possesses the greater potential for revenue growth and margin expansion compared to Microsoft. To learn more about AWS and Amazon's Ads business, you may read the following notes:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Amazon Web Services -&nbsp;Amazon: Here's What You Should Be Monitoring</li>\n <li>Digital Ads -&nbsp;Amazon: The 'Other' Segment May Be Worth More Than AWS</li>\n</ol>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18e9ff96d611913db9e45fbff0cc34ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Although Amazon appears to be more expensive than Microsoft based on backward-looking trading multiples such as Price-to-Earnings and Price-to-FCF ratios, it's relatively cheaper than Microsoft when we factor in future growth as indicated by the PEG ratios.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68cf436c611eb187de68bf8802e73021\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p>\n<p>In summary, Microsoft is currently performing better than Amazon. However, Amazon's future appears to be a lot brighter than Microsoft. Since the stock markets are forward-looking, I would expect Amazon to outperform Microsoft over the coming years if their relative valuations were identical. With that being said, let us now calculate the intrinsic value of both Microsoft and Amazon along with future expected returns for these tech giants.</p>\n<p>Evaluating the Fair Value And Expected Return of Microsoft And Amazon</p>\n<p>To find the fair values of Microsoft and Amazon, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>In step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.</p></li>\n <li><p>In step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).</p></li>\n <li><p>In step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the 10 years. Then, we arrive at a CAGR using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.</p></li>\n <li>In step 4, we account for dividends.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Assumptions:</b></p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Microsoft</p></td>\n   <td><p>Amazon</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Forward 12-month revenue [A]</p></td>\n   <td><p>$195 billion</p></td>\n   <td><p>$515 billion</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Potential Free Cash Flow Margin [B]</p></td>\n   <td><p>35%</p></td>\n   <td><p>20%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Average diluted shares outstanding [C]</p></td>\n   <td><p>7.5 billion</p></td>\n   <td><p>525 million</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Free cash flow per share [ D = (A * B) / C ]</p></td>\n   <td><p>$9.1</p></td>\n   <td><p>$196.19</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Free cash flow per share growth rate</p></td>\n   <td><p>10%</p></td>\n   <td><p>12.5%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Terminal growth rate</p></td>\n   <td><p>3%</p></td>\n   <td><p>3%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Years of elevated growth</p></td>\n   <td><p>10</p></td>\n   <td><p>10</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Total years to stimulate</p></td>\n   <td><p>100</p></td>\n   <td><p>100</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Discount Rate (Our \"Next Best Alternative\")</p></td>\n   <td><p>9.8%</p></td>\n   <td><p>9.8%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><b>Results:</b></p>\n<p>1) Microsoft:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875546f4aabbb1e580dcc9610c18a5b9\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"729\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8861dcb9fc1fbcd858297426ec52eaf6\" tg-width=\"606\" tg-height=\"771\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p>\n<p><b>2) Amazon:</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8fb43ad416565a9768e919470e59bab\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"731\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a15de5a0494d4557b38c2290017588e9\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"430\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p>\n<p>Summary of Results:</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Current Price</b></td>\n   <td><b>Fair Value</b></td>\n   <td><b>Undervalued (-) or Overvalued (+)</b></td>\n   <td><b>2031 Share Price Target</b></td>\n   <td><b>Total Expected CAGR Return</b></td>\n   <td><b>Rating</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Microsoft</b></td>\n   <td>$301</td>\n   <td>$295</td>\n   <td>+2.15%</td>\n   <td>$1101</td>\n   <td>14.71%</td>\n   <td><i>Modest Buy</i></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Amazon</b></td>\n   <td>$3478</td>\n   <td>$6024</td>\n   <td>-42.27%</td>\n   <td>$22298</td>\n   <td>20.42%</td>\n   <td><i>Strong Buy</i></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>As you can see, Microsoft is slightly overvalued, and investors buying in at $301 can expect to generate CAGR returns of ~14.71% over the next decade, which is slightly below our investment hurdle rate of 15%. Since Microsoft's business fundamentals are robust, I rate it as a modest buy at this price. On the other hand, Amazon's business is facing near-term volatility, and business momentum looks shaky. However, Amazon's stock is deeply undervalued, and this is an opportunity for long-term investors to generate significant alpha. As Amazon's expected CAGR returns are much greater than my hurdle rate, I rate Amazon a strong buy. If I were to choose between Microsoft and Amazon based on business momentum (cloud and otherwise), I would have to go with Microsoft. However, Amazon's stock is massively undervalued while Microsoft is fairly valued. Considering the risk/reward available, I think Amazon is the better buy here.</p>\n<p>Key Takeaway: I rate Amazon a strong buy at $3,478 and Microsoft a modest buy at $301. Amazon is a better buy than Microsoft at this point in time.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon Vs. Microsoft: Two Cloud Computing Giants, One Winning Stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon Vs. Microsoft: Two Cloud Computing Giants, One Winning Stock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-09 11:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453940-amazon-vs-microsoft-two-cloud-computing-giants-one-winning-stock><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nMicrosoft's Azure continues to gain market share in the burgeoning cloud infrastructure services market. However, Amazon's AWS remains in the No.1 position.\nAlthough the cloud wars are ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453940-amazon-vs-microsoft-two-cloud-computing-giants-one-winning-stock\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453940-amazon-vs-microsoft-two-cloud-computing-giants-one-winning-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127517147","content_text":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft's Azure continues to gain market share in the burgeoning cloud infrastructure services market. However, Amazon's AWS remains in the No.1 position.\nAlthough the cloud wars are heating up, both Azure and AWS are performing exceptionally, growing at 51% y/y and 37% y/y, respectively.\nThe global cloud services market is poised to grow at a CAGR of ~15.8% until 2030 to become a $1.6T market. Therefore, cloud providers still have a long growth runway.\nIn this article, I share a comparative financial analysis for Microsoft and Amazon to determine the better buy.\n\nChip Somodevilla/Getty Images News\nIntroduction\nMicrosoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) are competing for the coveted No.1 spot in the cloud infrastructure services market, which is projected to grow from $325B in 2021 to $1,620B (or $1.6T) by 2030, according to areportby Allied Market Research. In Q2, Amazon's AWS revenues grew at 37% year-over-year (marked acceleration) as it continues to lead the cloud infrastructure services market with a 31% market share. However, Microsoft's Azure is outpacing AWS's growth and now commands a market share of 22%.\nSource: canalys.com\nIn the last year or so, the coronavirus pandemic has led to increased cloud infrastructure services spending as workload migration and cloud-native application development accelerated. Naturally, Azure and AWS have emerged as prime beneficiaries of this transformational shift toward the cloud. Although the coronavirus pandemic has receded in previous months, businesses have continued to embrace the cloud, as evidenced by the $5B sequential (q/q) growth in cloud infrastructure services spending in Q2 2021.\nSource: canalys.com\nBoth Microsoft and Amazon are well-diversified big tech giants. However, the cloud opportunity is critical to their future successes. Today, Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud business makes up nearly ~37% of total revenues and ~40% of Microsoft's operating income, and these figures are expected to grow even further in the coming years. In relation to Amazon, AWS's revenues are a small fraction (13% in Q2 2021) of total sales. However, AWS contributes the majority of Amazon's operating income (~60%). And so, I'm not surprised with how ugly this battle is turning out to be. In recent times, we have witnessed dramatic instances such as Amazon's lawsuit for the $10B Jedi contract being awarded to Microsoft,Microsoft's protest to Government Accountability Office in relation to the $10B NSA contract awarded to Amazon, and a top AWS executive - Charlie Bell (once expected to be a successor to Andy Jassy as AWS CEO) -moving over to Microsoft. The competition between Amazon and Microsoft is fearsome. However, I can see ample room for multiple winners in the cloud services market.\nSource: Allied Market Research\nWith massive cloud services growth on the horizon, I expect both Microsoft and Amazon to deliver double-digit revenue growth over the coming decade. Several analysts have projected the cloud services business to become a commodity. However, profitability metrics for AWS and Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud show that it's clearly not a commodity business (at least for now). Azure has been gaining ground on AWS, but it's too soon to tell which of these tech titans will lead the cloud services market over the coming years.\nOver the last 12 months, Microsoft has significantly outperformed Amazon in terms of creating shareholder wealth, as can be observed in the chart below. I attribute Microsoft's outperformance to a multitude of factors, including but not limited to stronger momentum in the cloud, the existence of a massive capital return program, and robust free cash flow generation.\nSource: YCharts\nIn today's article, I will share a comparative financial analysis to determine the better buy among Microsoft and Amazon. Furthermore, we will estimate the fair value and expected returns for both of these blue-chip companies based on the financial statement analysis conducted in this note.\nComparative Financial Analysis: Microsoft vs. Amazon\nI think it's too early to call the cloud services market, and the winners will only be evident in due time. However, it's very likely that Amazon and Microsoft will be dominating this market in 2031. Now, Amazon and Microsoft may be competitors in the cloud, but they happen to be two very different companies with varied core competencies: Amazon - e-commerce, Microsoft - business, and consumer software. Let's carry out a comparative financial analysis to determine the better buy among Microsoft and Amazon.\nSource: YCharts\nIn essence, Microsoft is a high-margin software and services business, while Amazon is a low-margin retail business with some higher-margin business lines such as AWS and Advertising. Since both Amazon and Microsoft are over-covered stocks, I don't think discussing their revenue mix would be of much value. However, let's look at the free cash flow generation of these blue-chip giants to understand their current business momentum.\nAfter receiving a massive pandemic boost, Amazon's free cash flows have turned negative in the last two quarters as the company invests massive amounts of capital (capex spending) in driving future revenue growth. In Q2, Amazon missed revenue estimates by ~$2B, which is further evidence of Amazon losing business momentum. On the other hand, Microsoft's business momentum remained strong in Q2 as the company beat revenue expectations by ~$2B while generating record amounts of free cash flow over the last 12 months. Therefore, it's fair to say that Microsoft is outperforming Amazon for the time being.\nSource: YCharts\nAt the end of Q2, Microsoft had nearly $130B of cash and short-term investments on its balance sheet vs. financial debt of $58B (down from ~$90B debt in Dec'17). Over the last five years, Amazon's cash reserves have been building up, which now stand at ~$90B. However, the e-commerce giant has been increasing its debt load too, which has grown to $50B in Q2 2021.\nSource: YCharts\nIn terms of balance sheet strength, Microsoft is clearly in a better position compared to Amazon. Moreover, Microsoft's free cash flow generation is superior to Amazon right now. As you can see below, Microsoft is using its financial strength to execute a massive capital return program that consists of stock buybacks and dividends. Although Amazon lacks a capital return program today, it's only a matter of time before Amazon boasts one of the largest capital return programs among big tech companies. Therefore, Microsoft's advantage in this department may be short lived.\nSource: YCharts\nWhile Microsoft returns the majority of its operational cash flows back to shareholders, Amazon is investing billions of dollars to drive future revenue (and, by extension, free cash flow) growth. In my opinion, Amazon will continue to outpace Microsoft's revenue growth over the next decade. As Amazon's faster-growing, higher-margin business lines, AWS and Advertising, contribute a larger share of Amazon's revenues over the coming years, its margins are expected to head higher. Hence, Amazon possesses the greater potential for revenue growth and margin expansion compared to Microsoft. To learn more about AWS and Amazon's Ads business, you may read the following notes:\n\nAmazon Web Services - Amazon: Here's What You Should Be Monitoring\nDigital Ads - Amazon: The 'Other' Segment May Be Worth More Than AWS\n\nSource: YCharts\nAlthough Amazon appears to be more expensive than Microsoft based on backward-looking trading multiples such as Price-to-Earnings and Price-to-FCF ratios, it's relatively cheaper than Microsoft when we factor in future growth as indicated by the PEG ratios.\nSource: YCharts\nIn summary, Microsoft is currently performing better than Amazon. However, Amazon's future appears to be a lot brighter than Microsoft. Since the stock markets are forward-looking, I would expect Amazon to outperform Microsoft over the coming years if their relative valuations were identical. With that being said, let us now calculate the intrinsic value of both Microsoft and Amazon along with future expected returns for these tech giants.\nEvaluating the Fair Value And Expected Return of Microsoft And Amazon\nTo find the fair values of Microsoft and Amazon, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:\n\nIn step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.\nIn step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).\nIn step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the 10 years. Then, we arrive at a CAGR using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.\nIn step 4, we account for dividends.\n\nAssumptions:\n\n\n\n\nMicrosoft\nAmazon\n\n\nForward 12-month revenue [A]\n$195 billion\n$515 billion\n\n\nPotential Free Cash Flow Margin [B]\n35%\n20%\n\n\nAverage diluted shares outstanding [C]\n7.5 billion\n525 million\n\n\nFree cash flow per share [ D = (A * B) / C ]\n$9.1\n$196.19\n\n\nFree cash flow per share growth rate\n10%\n12.5%\n\n\nTerminal growth rate\n3%\n3%\n\n\nYears of elevated growth\n10\n10\n\n\nTotal years to stimulate\n100\n100\n\n\nDiscount Rate (Our \"Next Best Alternative\")\n9.8%\n9.8%\n\n\n\nResults:\n1) Microsoft:\n\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\n2) Amazon:\n\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\nSummary of Results:\n\n\n\nCurrent Price\nFair Value\nUndervalued (-) or Overvalued (+)\n2031 Share Price Target\nTotal Expected CAGR Return\nRating\n\n\nMicrosoft\n$301\n$295\n+2.15%\n$1101\n14.71%\nModest Buy\n\n\nAmazon\n$3478\n$6024\n-42.27%\n$22298\n20.42%\nStrong Buy\n\n\n\nAs you can see, Microsoft is slightly overvalued, and investors buying in at $301 can expect to generate CAGR returns of ~14.71% over the next decade, which is slightly below our investment hurdle rate of 15%. Since Microsoft's business fundamentals are robust, I rate it as a modest buy at this price. On the other hand, Amazon's business is facing near-term volatility, and business momentum looks shaky. However, Amazon's stock is deeply undervalued, and this is an opportunity for long-term investors to generate significant alpha. As Amazon's expected CAGR returns are much greater than my hurdle rate, I rate Amazon a strong buy. If I were to choose between Microsoft and Amazon based on business momentum (cloud and otherwise), I would have to go with Microsoft. However, Amazon's stock is massively undervalued while Microsoft is fairly valued. Considering the risk/reward available, I think Amazon is the better buy here.\nKey Takeaway: I rate Amazon a strong buy at $3,478 and Microsoft a modest buy at $301. Amazon is a better buy than Microsoft at this point in time.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9,"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2559,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832957256,"gmtCreate":1629569726075,"gmtModify":1676530071550,"author":{"id":"3581898537749965","authorId":"3581898537749965","name":"Couch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c9b82fccf054c247e5e431e45f3550","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581898537749965","authorIdStr":"3581898537749965"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/832957256","repostId":"2161149745","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":772,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887504321,"gmtCreate":1632058500263,"gmtModify":1676530693846,"author":{"id":"3581898537749965","authorId":"3581898537749965","name":"Couch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c9b82fccf054c247e5e431e45f3550","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581898537749965","authorIdStr":"3581898537749965"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/887504321","repostId":"2168508165","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3649,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814946936,"gmtCreate":1630752147225,"gmtModify":1676530390378,"author":{"id":"3581898537749965","authorId":"3581898537749965","name":"Couch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c9b82fccf054c247e5e431e45f3550","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581898537749965","authorIdStr":"3581898537749965"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/814946936","repostId":"1196145266","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1047,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833843471,"gmtCreate":1629220397193,"gmtModify":1676529971403,"author":{"id":"3581898537749965","authorId":"3581898537749965","name":"Couch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c9b82fccf054c247e5e431e45f3550","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581898537749965","authorIdStr":"3581898537749965"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/833843471","repostId":"2160420761","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":769,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":863017499,"gmtCreate":1632332577711,"gmtModify":1676530755599,"author":{"id":"3581898537749965","authorId":"3581898537749965","name":"Couch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c9b82fccf054c247e5e431e45f3550","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581898537749965","authorIdStr":"3581898537749965"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/863017499","repostId":"1146187405","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2089,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814259778,"gmtCreate":1630829996294,"gmtModify":1676530402773,"author":{"id":"3581898537749965","authorId":"3581898537749965","name":"Couch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c9b82fccf054c247e5e431e45f3550","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581898537749965","authorIdStr":"3581898537749965"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/814259778","repostId":"2164803413","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1211,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}