Jarenng personal page - To The Moon

Jarenng

Jarenng

I FKING LOVE MONEY

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2021-06-02

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$$100 by end of the week!!!!!

2021-04-29

$Mind Medicine (MindMed) Inc.(MNMD)$I am waiting...$5

2021-06-03

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$loving This!

2021-05-14

Good job

Early Tesla backer and top fund manager attacks Warren Buffett's strategy. Here's his investing advice.

2021-08-31

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$u p to 40

2021-06-07

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$moon moon moon

2021-05-26

Better be good

June Outlook: Inflation, Jobs, And The Fed Take Center Stage In Month Ahead

2021-06-30

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$:)))))))

2021-06-05

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$sell all these

2021-05-21

It's coming. Govt controlling decentralised finance. Is it still decentralise the?

Hong Kong to restrict crypto exchanges to professional investors

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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these","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f47e650f1032ddfe16afab63175012","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112044869","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1508,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112045796,"gmtCreate":1622831051115,"gmtModify":1704192107203,"author":{"id":"3579784300187475","authorId":"3579784300187475","name":"Jarenng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8245ce558dbd1566093156fae9c877","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579784300187475","idStr":"3579784300187475"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sell","listText":"Sell","text":"Sell","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112045796","repostId":"2140840159","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1077,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112045564,"gmtCreate":1622831027658,"gmtModify":1704192107531,"author":{"id":"3579784300187475","authorId":"3579784300187475","name":"Jarenng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8245ce558dbd1566093156fae9c877","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579784300187475","idStr":"3579784300187475"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Time to take profit","listText":"Time to take profit","text":"Time to take profit","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112045564","repostId":"1167651093","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167651093","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622820402,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1167651093?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-04 23:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Shopify Is An Expensive Stock That Keeps Delivering The Goods","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167651093","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShopify has consistently delivered for long-term investors who have kept faith with the com","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Shopify has consistently delivered for long-term investors who have kept faith with the company despite its high valuations.</li>\n <li>The company has multiple growth drivers in Payments, and International markets to further drive its growth story.</li>\n <li>Its technical picture also shows a stock that has always been strongly supported along its long-term uptrend.</li>\n <li>I attempt to discuss the key aspects of its operating performances and why investors should also focus on international expansion as a key aspect of e-commerce growth.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52317e0f54753da09429856ece6bc6b5\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p>\n<p>Shopify (SHOP) is one of the most hotly debated e-commerce stocks because of its explosive revenue growth rates and its high valuations. The company continues to demonstrate both stellar topline and bottomline growth while also improving its cash flow margins. The management’s ability to monetize its merchants through Shopify Payments and its suite of merchant solutions is a masterstroke that shows the capability of the management to be able to continue executing its high growth strategies with aplomb moving forward. Despite its relatively high valuation levels, it also remains a very strong stock from the technical point of view, so bullish investors may consider adding it at the next dip.</p>\n<p><b>Shopify: Defying Amazon’s Valuation Logic</b></p>\n<p>Shopify’s critics have often questioned the logic of investing in Shopify when you can invest in Amazon (AMZN) for a fraction of its expensive valuation. Yet, investors in SHOP continue to defy “common valuation logic” by pointing to Shopify’s incredible growth rates.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2dcffad535b32122075c2b0af38ff14\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"818\"><span>SHOP and AMZN LTM Revenue Growth Trend. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7d799fb8dc581602cf953723e8439b3\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"710\"><span>AMZN and SHOP LTM Revenue YoY Growth &amp; Revenue 3Y CAGR. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>Over the last 5 years, SHOP’s revenue growth has easily surpassed AMZN at every reporting quarter, and the pandemic fueled e-commerce tailwind also drove higher growth to SHOP as its LTM revenue YoY growth read 99.6% as compared to AMZN’s “meagre” 41.5%. Moreover, SHOP’s revenue 3Y CAGR of 63.3% also easily bested AMZN’s 3Y CAGR of 29.5%. So clearly, SHOP’s growth has been truly phenomenal.</p>\n<p><b>Shopify's Compelling Merchant Solutions Growth Drivers</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530e31580ddf7319700509d7bb77eadf\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"605\"><span>Shopify Revenue Segments. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p>\n<p>In recent years, we could see that even though Shopify’s revenue growth has been pretty much broad-based, its merchant solutions segment has been taking up an increasingly large contribution in the company’s revenue base and have transformed itself into Shopify’s most important revenue driver, accounting for 67.6% of Q1’21 revenue. The shift towards increasing the revenue base of merchant solutions has seen the company continuing to roll out multiple new merchant solutions initiatives and services to further monetize the company’s merchant base and improve the strength of its ecosystem, therefore enhancing its “stickiness” and retention over time.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e25591146598f17356e29c09b22ee48a\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"540\"><span>Shopify Subscription Solutions and Merchant Solutions YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p>\n<p>Investors should be careful not to get too excited with the pulled forward growth as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic that we observed in FY 20 as seen above. The management has already strongly emphasized in their guidance that they do not expect this to repeat, and&nbsp;expects YoY growth to normalize&nbsp;to levels seen before the pandemic, which in this case is estimated to be somewhere north of 50%. Even though growth is expected to normalize moving forward, it’s not as if SHOP has been growing slowly and more importantly the pulled forward growth last year has allowed SHOP to dramatically increase its merchants growth onto its platform for future monetization within Shopify’s robust ecosystem.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81297d610a91d9faaac76cab97c2a46\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"566\"><span>Shopify Segment Gross Margins. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p>\n<p>Although Q1’21’s gross margin was higher than recent historical trends, we should not expect this to carry on moving forward. The management pointed out clearly that the company is focusing its efforts to continue improving its robust ecosystem for its merchants such as developing the Shopify Fulfillment Network [SFN], as it expects that the&nbsp;merchant solutions segment to continue driving its revenue growth&nbsp;even if it means lesser gross margins moving forward.</p>\n<p><b>Shopify Payments is the Key to Unlock the Benefits from GMV Growth</b></p>\n<p>Despite that, the company clarified that as Shopify Payments continue to see increased adoption and usage among its merchants, the company expects to see significant improvement to its SG&amp;A efficiencies as Shopify Payments has a much lesser impact on SG&amp;A margins, therefore leading to improvement on operating efficiencies as Shopify Payments scale up further.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96f95af102893b8aa172d3bbb38e04e5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"724\"><span>SHOP EBIT Margin, SG&amp;A Margin, R&amp;D Margin, Gross Margin. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>Clearly, investors could see that despite posting a relatively high LTM gross margin profile in Q1’21: 53.5%, it has only recently turned LTM EBIT profitable (Q1’21: 10.5%), thanks to the company’s solid improvement with its operating efficiencies even though the gross margin profile has remained stable over time, even with the pulled forward growth from COVID-19 last year.</p>\n<p>We could see a consistently declining LTM SG&amp;A margin trend reaching 24.8% in Q1’21 from a high of 44.1% in Q4’16, signifying a huge improvement. Therefore, I’m confident that SHOP would continue to deliver improved operating efficiencies as it scales up its SFN to further strengthen its ecosystem, creating even more value and synergies for its merchants and their customers.</p>\n<p><b>SHOP’s GMV and GPV Analysis. Data Source: Company Filings</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6f4cabe3fd5b28627f459fb7c38d30d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>SHOP’s GMV and GPV YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p>\n<p>We could clearly see the increasingly important role of Shopify Payments for its merchants as more and more merchants are using Shopify Payments over time as GPV growth has outpaced GMV growth consistently, with Q1’21 reading coming in at 137% YoY growth and 114.4% YoY growth, respectively.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2221628cdde154ad2c8a97a321036aa9\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>SHOP GPV as a % of GMV. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p>\n<p>With the increased adoption and usage of Shopify Payments, in Q1’21 GPV formed 46.4% of GMV, from a low of 37.5% of GMV just 3 years ago. I believe Shopify is moving in the right direction to continue driving more and more merchants towards Shopify Payments as it creates a powerful flywheel to unlock even more and more of the expected massive GMV growth moving forward.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0258ae827634f290dfe0d7d81fd92809\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Shopify MRR. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2376f5f19c5f4a4cb9e4f4bb797fcb64\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Shopify MRR YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p>\n<p>The sustained improvement in GPV growth has come at an important juncture as SHOP had already been experiencing slower MRR growth pre-pandemic (from 36% in Q1’19 to 21% in Q2’20). Therefore, by strategically being able to monetize its merchants in other areas has helped to manage this slowdown, while at the same time opened up many new revenue opportunities for Merchant Solutions to help drive the company’s future growth.</p>\n<p><b>The Importance of International Expansion</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26d7cd04a66b877c2669945d4f9a68ef\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"775\"><span>Shopify Revenue by Merchant Location. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31774ad4abd47199de636274620d5302\" tg-width=\"807\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>Shopify Revenue by Merchant Location YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p>\n<p>Although U.S. merchants continue to be SHOP’s most important revenue driver (66.7% of FY 20 revenue), the company has also experienced rapid growth in other geographical markets, particularly in its Rest of World segment. As we can observe from the above chart, U.S. growth has already been trending down pre-pandemic, while Rest of World growth has continued to grow rapidly and consistently.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39fd8a089cc64ae41da56ef8a8ddafe3\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"597\"><span>Amazon Revenue Segments YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p>\n<p>We also observed this from AMZN’s International segment growth where although it has been somewhat of a laggard in previous quarters, it has started to outpace North America’s growth for the last 2 quarters, culminating in Q1’21 YoY growth of 60.4% for the International segment against 39.5% for the North America segment.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7909e7fdd6bf5972121d1a9a70f75a46\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>U.S. Retail e-commerce revenue 2017 to 2025. Data Source: Statista</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c99e9a30fb46d3d1f22e77b72c40740\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>U.S. Retail e-commerce revenue YoY Growth. Data Source: Statista</span></p>\n<p>We could see from the above why ramping up growth internationally is so important for Shopify to continue delivering its expected spectacular growth rates. Even though Shopify merchants sell internationally, the fact that the SFN currently serves only businesses whosell to U.S. customersindicates the significance of the U.S. consumers to Shopify’s ecommerce revenues. However, as the growth of U.S. retail e-commerce revenue is expected to slow down over time (from 8.7% YoY in 2021 to 2.7% YoY by 2025), companies like Shopify who rely on high growth to justify its valuation must either take market share away from its key competitors or look for growth outside of the United States.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e60f4fcd9254552bdd46a6d9c613384d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Value of Southeast Asia e-commerce market. Data Source: Google, Temasek Holdings, Bain &amp; Company</span></p>\n<p>For example, if we look across to Southeast Asia, and compare the growth rates of the Southeast Asian market (expected 5Y CAGR for 2020 to 2025: 22.6%) and the United States market (expected 5Y CAGR for 2020 to 2025: 3.73%), it’s easy to see which market will be the key driver of e-commerce growth in the near future. There’s no doubt that the U.S. market remains an extremely important market given its size, however much of the future growth will likely come from overseas markets. Therefore, it’s important that Shopify continues to drive growth across other geographical markets.</p>\n<p><b>Let's Bring in Sea Limited</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d40fe31435cdc50217df4172982b7354\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"821\"><span>Sea Limited &amp; SHOP EBIT Margin, Gross Margin. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>In order to look at Shopify’s growth opportunities in the Southeast Asian market, I thought it would be important to first consider the most important e-commerce player in that region: Sea Limited (SE), which I had previouslycovered in detail in an article hererecently.</p>\n<p>It’s easy to see how SHOP’s more profitable business model on relying on subscriptions and merchant solutions drove a much higher EBIT margin as compared to SE’s online marketplace platform: Shopee, which is currently being supported by the company’s profitable Garena gaming segment.</p>\n<p>Despite that, Sea has still been able to drive significant revenue growth and operating efficiencies such that its EBIT margins have seen remarkable improvement.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788d4d4399cbdeb497792a1f90868e47\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"714\"><span>EBIT Margin Forecast. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>When we modelled SE and SHOP’s EBIT margins moving forward, we could see how both companies’ improving cost efficiencies, notably from the reduction in SG&amp;A margins, would help both companies to continue improving their operating margins over time.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f94e62035fe5fc04eaeb95b7d760df28\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"703\"><span>SE and SHOP Projected Unlevered FCF Margin. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>This is where their SE is expected to pull ahead. In modelling their FCF, SE is expected to generate so much FCF from its revenue growth and operating profits that the company looks increasingly like a massive cash flow machine moving forward. It’s not as if SHOP looks sloppy, but when compared to SE’s FCF margins, they certainly don’t look as impressive though.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa625e12090dfc0f64e439c278b5b9d0\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"649\"><span>SE and SHOP Projected Revenue CAGR (5Y, 10Y), 10Y Projected Av. Unlevered FCF Margin, EV / FY+1 Rev. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>More importantly, when we bring their current valuation levels into the picture (EV / FY+1 Rev), we could see that SE’s current valuation (16.3x) looks so much more attractive than SHOP’s (32.7x), while being able to convert that rapid revenue growth into higher FCF margins. It should also be noted that I have modelled both companies to continue their blockbuster performances: SE (5Y CAGR of 44.3%, 10Y CAGR of 26.7%), SHOP (5Y CAGR 41.4%, 10Y CAGR 32.3%).</p>\n<p>Therefore, for investors who would like a share of that rapid international growth in the Southeast Asian market coupled with a leading cash flow generating gaming segment, you should look no further than SE.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4df93eabc2cf51bdca0056071317076a\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market share of e-commerce software platforms in the U.S. in 2021 Data Source: Builtwith</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2485bbbc639e9512e106f6dd1ab48ff\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Unique visitors to the most popular online retailers in SEA in 2020. Data Source: iPrice Group, SimilarWeb, Marketing in Asia</span></p>\n<p>When we consider the competitive economics in the U.S. against Southeast Asia, it becomes very clear. Shopify faces strong competition within its software platform segment, without accounting for Amazon’s prowess as well. Even though I expect Shopify to continue its rapid expansion, I believe that it faces more intensive competitive threats than Sea Limited as the pie in the U.S. is expected to grow slower over time. SHOP needs almost perfect execution every quarter to justify its lofty valuations.</p>\n<p>As compared to SE, it is clearly the dominant online marketplace now in Southeast Asia by a fairly large margin, and its prowess and scale is also growing, further stretching the distance from its competitors. Coupled with its ShopeePay payments platform, it also creates a flywheel effect similar to what Shopify Payments does for Shopify. The leadership in Southeast Asia is surely Sea’s to lose, and there’s so much potential growth that the company can capture in this region as the undisputed leader. When we consider Shopify’s valuations against SE’s it looks quite clear SE’s valuation looks more attractive now, with stronger market leadership and arguably higher potential growth.</p>\n<p><b>Price Action and Technical Analysis</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a9782afa86bafbd3d2e54e41e0c1d13\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"794\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p>\n<p>SHOP’s price action has been stuck somewhat in a large consolidation phase since Oct 20, with the bull trap set in Feb 21 at around the $1500 level. Support was found at around the $1000 level, with further support at around the $835 level for investors who wish to add further into SHOP. It’s important to note that despite SHOP’s lofty valuations, its long term uptrend bias has never been threatened, and I expect this to carry on moving forward.</p>\n<p><b>Wrapping it all up</b></p>\n<p>Although Shopify is one of the most expensive high quality e-commerce stocks right now, it’s also expected to generate rapid growth ahead with its ever improving ecosystem for its merchants. Coupled with one of the strongest long term uptrend biases that I have seen for stocks (It didn’t lose its key support levels even during the COVID-19 bear market), I believe this puts SHOP in a strong position as a stock to add aggressively at the next big dip.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Shopify Is An Expensive Stock That Keeps Delivering The Goods</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShopify Is An Expensive Stock That Keeps Delivering The Goods\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-04 23:26 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433111-shopify-an-expensive-stock-that-keeps-delivering><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nShopify has consistently delivered for long-term investors who have kept faith with the company despite its high valuations.\nThe company has multiple growth drivers in Payments, and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433111-shopify-an-expensive-stock-that-keeps-delivering\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SHOP":"Shopify Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433111-shopify-an-expensive-stock-that-keeps-delivering","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167651093","content_text":"Summary\n\nShopify has consistently delivered for long-term investors who have kept faith with the company despite its high valuations.\nThe company has multiple growth drivers in Payments, and International markets to further drive its growth story.\nIts technical picture also shows a stock that has always been strongly supported along its long-term uptrend.\nI attempt to discuss the key aspects of its operating performances and why investors should also focus on international expansion as a key aspect of e-commerce growth.\n\nPhoto by JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis\nShopify (SHOP) is one of the most hotly debated e-commerce stocks because of its explosive revenue growth rates and its high valuations. The company continues to demonstrate both stellar topline and bottomline growth while also improving its cash flow margins. The management’s ability to monetize its merchants through Shopify Payments and its suite of merchant solutions is a masterstroke that shows the capability of the management to be able to continue executing its high growth strategies with aplomb moving forward. Despite its relatively high valuation levels, it also remains a very strong stock from the technical point of view, so bullish investors may consider adding it at the next dip.\nShopify: Defying Amazon’s Valuation Logic\nShopify’s critics have often questioned the logic of investing in Shopify when you can invest in Amazon (AMZN) for a fraction of its expensive valuation. Yet, investors in SHOP continue to defy “common valuation logic” by pointing to Shopify’s incredible growth rates.\nSHOP and AMZN LTM Revenue Growth Trend. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nAMZN and SHOP LTM Revenue YoY Growth & Revenue 3Y CAGR. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nOver the last 5 years, SHOP’s revenue growth has easily surpassed AMZN at every reporting quarter, and the pandemic fueled e-commerce tailwind also drove higher growth to SHOP as its LTM revenue YoY growth read 99.6% as compared to AMZN’s “meagre” 41.5%. Moreover, SHOP’s revenue 3Y CAGR of 63.3% also easily bested AMZN’s 3Y CAGR of 29.5%. So clearly, SHOP’s growth has been truly phenomenal.\nShopify's Compelling Merchant Solutions Growth Drivers\nShopify Revenue Segments. Data Source: Company Filings\nIn recent years, we could see that even though Shopify’s revenue growth has been pretty much broad-based, its merchant solutions segment has been taking up an increasingly large contribution in the company’s revenue base and have transformed itself into Shopify’s most important revenue driver, accounting for 67.6% of Q1’21 revenue. The shift towards increasing the revenue base of merchant solutions has seen the company continuing to roll out multiple new merchant solutions initiatives and services to further monetize the company’s merchant base and improve the strength of its ecosystem, therefore enhancing its “stickiness” and retention over time.\nShopify Subscription Solutions and Merchant Solutions YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nInvestors should be careful not to get too excited with the pulled forward growth as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic that we observed in FY 20 as seen above. The management has already strongly emphasized in their guidance that they do not expect this to repeat, and expects YoY growth to normalize to levels seen before the pandemic, which in this case is estimated to be somewhere north of 50%. Even though growth is expected to normalize moving forward, it’s not as if SHOP has been growing slowly and more importantly the pulled forward growth last year has allowed SHOP to dramatically increase its merchants growth onto its platform for future monetization within Shopify’s robust ecosystem.\nShopify Segment Gross Margins. Data Source: Company Filings\nAlthough Q1’21’s gross margin was higher than recent historical trends, we should not expect this to carry on moving forward. The management pointed out clearly that the company is focusing its efforts to continue improving its robust ecosystem for its merchants such as developing the Shopify Fulfillment Network [SFN], as it expects that the merchant solutions segment to continue driving its revenue growth even if it means lesser gross margins moving forward.\nShopify Payments is the Key to Unlock the Benefits from GMV Growth\nDespite that, the company clarified that as Shopify Payments continue to see increased adoption and usage among its merchants, the company expects to see significant improvement to its SG&A efficiencies as Shopify Payments has a much lesser impact on SG&A margins, therefore leading to improvement on operating efficiencies as Shopify Payments scale up further.\nSHOP EBIT Margin, SG&A Margin, R&D Margin, Gross Margin. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nClearly, investors could see that despite posting a relatively high LTM gross margin profile in Q1’21: 53.5%, it has only recently turned LTM EBIT profitable (Q1’21: 10.5%), thanks to the company’s solid improvement with its operating efficiencies even though the gross margin profile has remained stable over time, even with the pulled forward growth from COVID-19 last year.\nWe could see a consistently declining LTM SG&A margin trend reaching 24.8% in Q1’21 from a high of 44.1% in Q4’16, signifying a huge improvement. Therefore, I’m confident that SHOP would continue to deliver improved operating efficiencies as it scales up its SFN to further strengthen its ecosystem, creating even more value and synergies for its merchants and their customers.\nSHOP’s GMV and GPV Analysis. Data Source: Company Filings\nSHOP’s GMV and GPV YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nWe could clearly see the increasingly important role of Shopify Payments for its merchants as more and more merchants are using Shopify Payments over time as GPV growth has outpaced GMV growth consistently, with Q1’21 reading coming in at 137% YoY growth and 114.4% YoY growth, respectively.\nSHOP GPV as a % of GMV. Data Source: Company Filings\nWith the increased adoption and usage of Shopify Payments, in Q1’21 GPV formed 46.4% of GMV, from a low of 37.5% of GMV just 3 years ago. I believe Shopify is moving in the right direction to continue driving more and more merchants towards Shopify Payments as it creates a powerful flywheel to unlock even more and more of the expected massive GMV growth moving forward.\nShopify MRR. Data Source: Company Filings\nShopify MRR YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nThe sustained improvement in GPV growth has come at an important juncture as SHOP had already been experiencing slower MRR growth pre-pandemic (from 36% in Q1’19 to 21% in Q2’20). Therefore, by strategically being able to monetize its merchants in other areas has helped to manage this slowdown, while at the same time opened up many new revenue opportunities for Merchant Solutions to help drive the company’s future growth.\nThe Importance of International Expansion\nShopify Revenue by Merchant Location. Data Source: Company Filings\nShopify Revenue by Merchant Location YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nAlthough U.S. merchants continue to be SHOP’s most important revenue driver (66.7% of FY 20 revenue), the company has also experienced rapid growth in other geographical markets, particularly in its Rest of World segment. As we can observe from the above chart, U.S. growth has already been trending down pre-pandemic, while Rest of World growth has continued to grow rapidly and consistently.\nAmazon Revenue Segments YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nWe also observed this from AMZN’s International segment growth where although it has been somewhat of a laggard in previous quarters, it has started to outpace North America’s growth for the last 2 quarters, culminating in Q1’21 YoY growth of 60.4% for the International segment against 39.5% for the North America segment.\nU.S. Retail e-commerce revenue 2017 to 2025. Data Source: Statista\nU.S. Retail e-commerce revenue YoY Growth. Data Source: Statista\nWe could see from the above why ramping up growth internationally is so important for Shopify to continue delivering its expected spectacular growth rates. Even though Shopify merchants sell internationally, the fact that the SFN currently serves only businesses whosell to U.S. customersindicates the significance of the U.S. consumers to Shopify’s ecommerce revenues. However, as the growth of U.S. retail e-commerce revenue is expected to slow down over time (from 8.7% YoY in 2021 to 2.7% YoY by 2025), companies like Shopify who rely on high growth to justify its valuation must either take market share away from its key competitors or look for growth outside of the United States.\nValue of Southeast Asia e-commerce market. Data Source: Google, Temasek Holdings, Bain & Company\nFor example, if we look across to Southeast Asia, and compare the growth rates of the Southeast Asian market (expected 5Y CAGR for 2020 to 2025: 22.6%) and the United States market (expected 5Y CAGR for 2020 to 2025: 3.73%), it’s easy to see which market will be the key driver of e-commerce growth in the near future. There’s no doubt that the U.S. market remains an extremely important market given its size, however much of the future growth will likely come from overseas markets. Therefore, it’s important that Shopify continues to drive growth across other geographical markets.\nLet's Bring in Sea Limited\nSea Limited & SHOP EBIT Margin, Gross Margin. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nIn order to look at Shopify’s growth opportunities in the Southeast Asian market, I thought it would be important to first consider the most important e-commerce player in that region: Sea Limited (SE), which I had previouslycovered in detail in an article hererecently.\nIt’s easy to see how SHOP’s more profitable business model on relying on subscriptions and merchant solutions drove a much higher EBIT margin as compared to SE’s online marketplace platform: Shopee, which is currently being supported by the company’s profitable Garena gaming segment.\nDespite that, Sea has still been able to drive significant revenue growth and operating efficiencies such that its EBIT margins have seen remarkable improvement.\nEBIT Margin Forecast. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we modelled SE and SHOP’s EBIT margins moving forward, we could see how both companies’ improving cost efficiencies, notably from the reduction in SG&A margins, would help both companies to continue improving their operating margins over time.\nSE and SHOP Projected Unlevered FCF Margin. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nThis is where their SE is expected to pull ahead. In modelling their FCF, SE is expected to generate so much FCF from its revenue growth and operating profits that the company looks increasingly like a massive cash flow machine moving forward. It’s not as if SHOP looks sloppy, but when compared to SE’s FCF margins, they certainly don’t look as impressive though.\nSE and SHOP Projected Revenue CAGR (5Y, 10Y), 10Y Projected Av. Unlevered FCF Margin, EV / FY+1 Rev. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nMore importantly, when we bring their current valuation levels into the picture (EV / FY+1 Rev), we could see that SE’s current valuation (16.3x) looks so much more attractive than SHOP’s (32.7x), while being able to convert that rapid revenue growth into higher FCF margins. It should also be noted that I have modelled both companies to continue their blockbuster performances: SE (5Y CAGR of 44.3%, 10Y CAGR of 26.7%), SHOP (5Y CAGR 41.4%, 10Y CAGR 32.3%).\nTherefore, for investors who would like a share of that rapid international growth in the Southeast Asian market coupled with a leading cash flow generating gaming segment, you should look no further than SE.\nMarket share of e-commerce software platforms in the U.S. in 2021 Data Source: Builtwith\nUnique visitors to the most popular online retailers in SEA in 2020. Data Source: iPrice Group, SimilarWeb, Marketing in Asia\nWhen we consider the competitive economics in the U.S. against Southeast Asia, it becomes very clear. Shopify faces strong competition within its software platform segment, without accounting for Amazon’s prowess as well. Even though I expect Shopify to continue its rapid expansion, I believe that it faces more intensive competitive threats than Sea Limited as the pie in the U.S. is expected to grow slower over time. SHOP needs almost perfect execution every quarter to justify its lofty valuations.\nAs compared to SE, it is clearly the dominant online marketplace now in Southeast Asia by a fairly large margin, and its prowess and scale is also growing, further stretching the distance from its competitors. Coupled with its ShopeePay payments platform, it also creates a flywheel effect similar to what Shopify Payments does for Shopify. The leadership in Southeast Asia is surely Sea’s to lose, and there’s so much potential growth that the company can capture in this region as the undisputed leader. When we consider Shopify’s valuations against SE’s it looks quite clear SE’s valuation looks more attractive now, with stronger market leadership and arguably higher potential growth.\nPrice Action and Technical Analysis\nSource: TradingView\nSHOP’s price action has been stuck somewhat in a large consolidation phase since Oct 20, with the bull trap set in Feb 21 at around the $1500 level. Support was found at around the $1000 level, with further support at around the $835 level for investors who wish to add further into SHOP. It’s important to note that despite SHOP’s lofty valuations, its long term uptrend bias has never been threatened, and I expect this to carry on moving forward.\nWrapping it all up\nAlthough Shopify is one of the most expensive high quality e-commerce stocks right now, it’s also expected to generate rapid growth ahead with its ever improving ecosystem for its merchants. Coupled with one of the strongest long term uptrend biases that I have seen for stocks (It didn’t lose its key support levels even during the COVID-19 bear market), I believe this puts SHOP in a strong position as a stock to add aggressively at the next big dip.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SHOP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1091,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112045687,"gmtCreate":1622830991449,"gmtModify":1704192108678,"author":{"id":"3579784300187475","authorId":"3579784300187475","name":"Jarenng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8245ce558dbd1566093156fae9c877","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579784300187475","idStr":"3579784300187475"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sellllllllllll","listText":"Sellllllllllll","text":"Sellllllllllll","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112045687","repostId":"1154529120","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154529120","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622810459,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154529120?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-04 20:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154529120","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:. Alibaba Group'","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.</li>\n <li>I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.</li>\n <li>In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567d19950e6c8789ce2192b4503f0fa5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by efetova/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.</p>\n<p><b>BABA Stock Price</b></p>\n<p>Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8079eeb5384ea003fb3725d3cd1e877f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p>\n<p>Shares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a&nbsp;revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.</p>\n<p>Alibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and&nbsp;fears about regulation.</p>\n<p>At its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.</p>\n<p><b>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500?</b></p>\n<p>The answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.</p>\n<p><i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p>\n<p><i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p>\n<p><i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.</i></p>\n<p>We see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2d42b7094deb394266d6410287c2e4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p>\n<p>At 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.</p>\n<p>I still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.</p>\n<p>If we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcf78e0b071eff9753afbdcd96f751c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p>\n<p>If analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b4c351b4b5eb3328191ccaa9a3b776c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p>\n<p>Analysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.</p>\n<p>We can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.</p>\n<p>So, to sum this section up, I'd say<i>yes, BABA can hit $500</i>-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.</p>\n<p><b>Is Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.</p>\n<p>For those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-04 20:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432992-alibaba-stock-hit-500><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAlibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.\nI believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432992-alibaba-stock-hit-500\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432992-alibaba-stock-hit-500","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154529120","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.\nI believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.\nIn the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.\n\nPhoto by efetova/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nAlibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.\nBABA Stock Price\nSince its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:\nData byYCharts\nShares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.\nAlibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and fears about regulation.\nAt its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.\nCan Alibaba Stock Hit $500?\nThe answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.\nWe see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:\nData byYCharts\nAt 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.\nI still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.\nIf we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:\nData byYCharts\nIf analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.\nData byYCharts\nAnalysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.\nWe can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.\nSo, to sum this section up, I'd sayyes, BABA can hit $500-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.\nIs Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?\nAlibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.\nFor those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":113702079,"gmtCreate":1622638214191,"gmtModify":1704187801171,"author":{"id":"3579784300187475","authorId":"3579784300187475","name":"Jarenng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8245ce558dbd1566093156fae9c877","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579784300187475","idStr":"3579784300187475"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>$100 by end of the week!!!!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>$100 by end of the week!!!!!","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$$100 by end of the week!!!!!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/284327883f499e5c15c340c67b25a79d","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/113702079","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1100,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3560005076175829","authorId":"3560005076175829","name":"赛亚老人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3560005076175829","idStr":"3560005076175829"},"content":"Nice, burn all the shortist","text":"Nice, burn all the shortist","html":"Nice, burn all the shortist"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109523669,"gmtCreate":1619705915251,"gmtModify":1704728373059,"author":{"id":"3579784300187475","authorId":"3579784300187475","name":"Jarenng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8245ce558dbd1566093156fae9c877","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579784300187475","idStr":"3579784300187475"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNMD\">$Mind Medicine (MindMed) Inc.(MNMD)$</a>I am waiting...$5","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNMD\">$Mind Medicine (MindMed) Inc.(MNMD)$</a>I am waiting...$5","text":"$Mind Medicine (MindMed) Inc.(MNMD)$I am waiting...$5","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa4ae54467f74fc4dc371a6712e54886","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109523669","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1001,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3579784300187475","authorId":"3579784300187475","name":"Jarenng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8245ce558dbd1566093156fae9c877","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3579784300187475","idStr":"3579784300187475"},"content":"Before the week ends I want to cash out a big bag of cash. [Happy]","text":"Before the week ends I want to cash out a big bag of cash. [Happy]","html":"Before the week ends I want to cash out a big bag of cash. [Happy]"},{"author":{"id":"3574321920996186","authorId":"3574321920996186","name":"onezero","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78a6fcdcf896cad792f2b119c43dbff5","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574321920996186","idStr":"3574321920996186"},"content":"waiting for $5 too?","text":"waiting for $5 too?","html":"waiting for $5 too?"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111359182,"gmtCreate":1622654256846,"gmtModify":1704188297372,"author":{"id":"3579784300187475","authorId":"3579784300187475","name":"Jarenng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8245ce558dbd1566093156fae9c877","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579784300187475","idStr":"3579784300187475"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>loving This!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>loving This!","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$loving This!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3632bcdc4938374a434c8f8b30cb6dd","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/111359182","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":535,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196068264,"gmtCreate":1621000202758,"gmtModify":1704351776155,"author":{"id":"3579784300187475","authorId":"3579784300187475","name":"Jarenng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8245ce558dbd1566093156fae9c877","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579784300187475","idStr":"3579784300187475"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good job","listText":"Good job","text":"Good job","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/196068264","repostId":"2135710626","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2135710626","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1620982380,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2135710626?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-14 16:53","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"Early Tesla backer and top fund manager attacks Warren Buffett's strategy. Here's his investing advice.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2135710626","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"James Anderson says to forget value investing and be ready for stomach-churning swings in stock prices. One of the U.K.'s top fund managers and a trailblazing technology investor has criticized value investing and the obsession with short-term metrics, in a departing letter on Thursday. He said his greatest regret was not making bigger and bolder bets.Listen to experts and have faith in the forces of change, despite severe swings in stock prices, James Anderson said in his report with the annual","content":"<p>James Anderson says to forget value investing and be ready for stomach-churning swings in stock prices</p><p>One of the U.K.'s top fund managers and a trailblazing technology investor has criticized value investing and the obsession with short-term metrics, in a departing letter on Thursday. He said his greatest regret was not making bigger and bolder bets.</p><p>Listen to experts and have faith in the forces of change, despite severe swings in stock prices, James Anderson said in his report with the annual results of Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust .</p><p>Anderson will retire as a partner in asset manager Bailie Gifford and as joint manager of its Scottish Mortgage fund next April. The fund -- a FTSE 100 constituent with a market cap of more than GBP15 billion ($21 billion) -- has enjoyed remarkable gains over its history, marked by big, early bets on technology companies including online retailer Amazon <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a>, Chinese internet giant Tencent , and electric-car maker Tesla <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a>, which the fund bought into in 2014.</p><p>Shares in Scottish Mortgage have fallen 9% so far in 2021, but the fund remains up near 60% in the past year.</p><p>In a letter to shareholders, Anderson called the world of conventional asset management \"irretrievably broken,\" and took aim at \"value investing,\" the strategy famously espoused by investors like Ben Graham and Warren Buffett.</p><p>\"The only rhyme is that in the long run the value of stocks is the long-run free cash flows they generate but we have but the barest and most nebulous clues as to what these cash flows will turn out to be,\" Anderson said. \"But woe betide those who think that a near-term price to earnings ratio defines value in an era of deep change.\"</p><p>Since the emergence of digital technologies, \"sustained growth at extreme pace and with increasing returns to scale\" has become more evident, Anderson said. He pointed to tech giant Microsoft <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$(MSFT)$</a>, which continues to grow after 35 years as a public company.</p><p>\"Distraction through seeking minor opportunities in banal companies over short periods is the perennial temptation. It must be resisted,\" Anderson said.</p><p>He described how the classic and careful investing approach of choosing a level of risk and return along a bell curve is flawed. It \"is neither accepting the deep uncertainty of the world nor acknowledging that the skew of returns is so extreme that it is the search for companies with the characteristics that might enable extreme and compounding success that is central to investing,\" he said.</p><p>But faith is required in investing in high-growth opportunities, Anderson stressed, because share-price crashes happen regularly and are severe. \"The stock charts that look like remorseless bottom left to top right graphs are never as smooth and easy as they subsequently appear,\" he said.</p><p>The fund manager also took a swipe at investors' obsession with short-term metrics -- what he called \"the near pornographic allure of news such as earnings announcements and macroeconomic headlines.\"</p><p>Instead of following \"brokers and the media,\" Anderson advised listening to experts and scientists. Following expert advice on the advances in battery technology was behind Baillie Gifford's decision to invest in Tesla early, he said. At the time, Tesla was the only substantial Western player in electric vehicles, which the fund saw as an inevitable successor to conventional cars powered by internal combustion engines.</p><p>Anderson also acknowledged the difficulties of measuring the value and profitability of future-focused endeavors. He cited Tesla's ambitions in autonomous vehicles, which the fund views as possibly transformative for the economics of the company -- despite not having any idea how successful it will be.</p><p>\"To us it is bizarre that brokers, hedge fund mavens and commentators can claim to be able to decipher the future and assign a precise numerical target to the value of Tesla,\" he said.</p><p>In his final annual results at Scottish Mortgage, Anderson pointed to renewable energy, synthetic biology, and the changing landscape in healthcare innovation as among the revolutionary forces ahead in the market.</p><p>Describing what makes for a great investment, he cited Amazon and its founder Jeff Bezos as a model. \"The company should have open-ended growth opportunities that they should work hard never to define or time,\" he said, alongside \"initial leadership that thinks like a founder (and almost always is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>)\" as well as a distinctive philosophy of business.</p><p>Today, Scottish Mortgage's top 10 holdings, in order of portfolio weight, are Tencent, biotechnology-equipment group <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ILMN\">Illumina</a> (ILMN), Dutch semiconductor industry supplier ASML (ASML.AE), Amazon, Tesla, Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$(09988)$</a>, Chinese local services platform Meituan Dianping , U.S. biotech group Moderna <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">$(MRNA)$</a>, Chinese EV player NIO <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$(NIO)$</a>, and European food-delivery group Delivery Hero.</p><p>\"There's much that I have misunderstood and misjudged over the two decades,\" Anderson said, urging those that follow him to be eccentric, and to place trust in unreasonable people and propositions. \"My ever-growing conviction is that my greatest failing has been to be insufficiently radical.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Early Tesla backer and top fund manager attacks Warren Buffett's strategy. Here's his investing advice.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEarly Tesla backer and top fund manager attacks Warren Buffett's strategy. Here's his investing advice.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-14 16:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>James Anderson says to forget value investing and be ready for stomach-churning swings in stock prices</p><p>One of the U.K.'s top fund managers and a trailblazing technology investor has criticized value investing and the obsession with short-term metrics, in a departing letter on Thursday. He said his greatest regret was not making bigger and bolder bets.</p><p>Listen to experts and have faith in the forces of change, despite severe swings in stock prices, James Anderson said in his report with the annual results of Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust .</p><p>Anderson will retire as a partner in asset manager Bailie Gifford and as joint manager of its Scottish Mortgage fund next April. The fund -- a FTSE 100 constituent with a market cap of more than GBP15 billion ($21 billion) -- has enjoyed remarkable gains over its history, marked by big, early bets on technology companies including online retailer Amazon <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a>, Chinese internet giant Tencent , and electric-car maker Tesla <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a>, which the fund bought into in 2014.</p><p>Shares in Scottish Mortgage have fallen 9% so far in 2021, but the fund remains up near 60% in the past year.</p><p>In a letter to shareholders, Anderson called the world of conventional asset management \"irretrievably broken,\" and took aim at \"value investing,\" the strategy famously espoused by investors like Ben Graham and Warren Buffett.</p><p>\"The only rhyme is that in the long run the value of stocks is the long-run free cash flows they generate but we have but the barest and most nebulous clues as to what these cash flows will turn out to be,\" Anderson said. \"But woe betide those who think that a near-term price to earnings ratio defines value in an era of deep change.\"</p><p>Since the emergence of digital technologies, \"sustained growth at extreme pace and with increasing returns to scale\" has become more evident, Anderson said. He pointed to tech giant Microsoft <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$(MSFT)$</a>, which continues to grow after 35 years as a public company.</p><p>\"Distraction through seeking minor opportunities in banal companies over short periods is the perennial temptation. It must be resisted,\" Anderson said.</p><p>He described how the classic and careful investing approach of choosing a level of risk and return along a bell curve is flawed. It \"is neither accepting the deep uncertainty of the world nor acknowledging that the skew of returns is so extreme that it is the search for companies with the characteristics that might enable extreme and compounding success that is central to investing,\" he said.</p><p>But faith is required in investing in high-growth opportunities, Anderson stressed, because share-price crashes happen regularly and are severe. \"The stock charts that look like remorseless bottom left to top right graphs are never as smooth and easy as they subsequently appear,\" he said.</p><p>The fund manager also took a swipe at investors' obsession with short-term metrics -- what he called \"the near pornographic allure of news such as earnings announcements and macroeconomic headlines.\"</p><p>Instead of following \"brokers and the media,\" Anderson advised listening to experts and scientists. Following expert advice on the advances in battery technology was behind Baillie Gifford's decision to invest in Tesla early, he said. At the time, Tesla was the only substantial Western player in electric vehicles, which the fund saw as an inevitable successor to conventional cars powered by internal combustion engines.</p><p>Anderson also acknowledged the difficulties of measuring the value and profitability of future-focused endeavors. He cited Tesla's ambitions in autonomous vehicles, which the fund views as possibly transformative for the economics of the company -- despite not having any idea how successful it will be.</p><p>\"To us it is bizarre that brokers, hedge fund mavens and commentators can claim to be able to decipher the future and assign a precise numerical target to the value of Tesla,\" he said.</p><p>In his final annual results at Scottish Mortgage, Anderson pointed to renewable energy, synthetic biology, and the changing landscape in healthcare innovation as among the revolutionary forces ahead in the market.</p><p>Describing what makes for a great investment, he cited Amazon and its founder Jeff Bezos as a model. \"The company should have open-ended growth opportunities that they should work hard never to define or time,\" he said, alongside \"initial leadership that thinks like a founder (and almost always is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>)\" as well as a distinctive philosophy of business.</p><p>Today, Scottish Mortgage's top 10 holdings, in order of portfolio weight, are Tencent, biotechnology-equipment group <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ILMN\">Illumina</a> (ILMN), Dutch semiconductor industry supplier ASML (ASML.AE), Amazon, Tesla, Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$(09988)$</a>, Chinese local services platform Meituan Dianping , U.S. biotech group Moderna <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">$(MRNA)$</a>, Chinese EV player NIO <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$(NIO)$</a>, and European food-delivery group Delivery Hero.</p><p>\"There's much that I have misunderstood and misjudged over the two decades,\" Anderson said, urging those that follow him to be eccentric, and to place trust in unreasonable people and propositions. \"My ever-growing conviction is that my greatest failing has been to be insufficiently radical.\"</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","BRK.A":"伯克希尔",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2135710626","content_text":"James Anderson says to forget value investing and be ready for stomach-churning swings in stock pricesOne of the U.K.'s top fund managers and a trailblazing technology investor has criticized value investing and the obsession with short-term metrics, in a departing letter on Thursday. He said his greatest regret was not making bigger and bolder bets.Listen to experts and have faith in the forces of change, despite severe swings in stock prices, James Anderson said in his report with the annual results of Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust .Anderson will retire as a partner in asset manager Bailie Gifford and as joint manager of its Scottish Mortgage fund next April. The fund -- a FTSE 100 constituent with a market cap of more than GBP15 billion ($21 billion) -- has enjoyed remarkable gains over its history, marked by big, early bets on technology companies including online retailer Amazon $(AMZN)$, Chinese internet giant Tencent , and electric-car maker Tesla $(TSLA)$, which the fund bought into in 2014.Shares in Scottish Mortgage have fallen 9% so far in 2021, but the fund remains up near 60% in the past year.In a letter to shareholders, Anderson called the world of conventional asset management \"irretrievably broken,\" and took aim at \"value investing,\" the strategy famously espoused by investors like Ben Graham and Warren Buffett.\"The only rhyme is that in the long run the value of stocks is the long-run free cash flows they generate but we have but the barest and most nebulous clues as to what these cash flows will turn out to be,\" Anderson said. \"But woe betide those who think that a near-term price to earnings ratio defines value in an era of deep change.\"Since the emergence of digital technologies, \"sustained growth at extreme pace and with increasing returns to scale\" has become more evident, Anderson said. He pointed to tech giant Microsoft $(MSFT)$, which continues to grow after 35 years as a public company.\"Distraction through seeking minor opportunities in banal companies over short periods is the perennial temptation. It must be resisted,\" Anderson said.He described how the classic and careful investing approach of choosing a level of risk and return along a bell curve is flawed. It \"is neither accepting the deep uncertainty of the world nor acknowledging that the skew of returns is so extreme that it is the search for companies with the characteristics that might enable extreme and compounding success that is central to investing,\" he said.But faith is required in investing in high-growth opportunities, Anderson stressed, because share-price crashes happen regularly and are severe. \"The stock charts that look like remorseless bottom left to top right graphs are never as smooth and easy as they subsequently appear,\" he said.The fund manager also took a swipe at investors' obsession with short-term metrics -- what he called \"the near pornographic allure of news such as earnings announcements and macroeconomic headlines.\"Instead of following \"brokers and the media,\" Anderson advised listening to experts and scientists. Following expert advice on the advances in battery technology was behind Baillie Gifford's decision to invest in Tesla early, he said. At the time, Tesla was the only substantial Western player in electric vehicles, which the fund saw as an inevitable successor to conventional cars powered by internal combustion engines.Anderson also acknowledged the difficulties of measuring the value and profitability of future-focused endeavors. He cited Tesla's ambitions in autonomous vehicles, which the fund views as possibly transformative for the economics of the company -- despite not having any idea how successful it will be.\"To us it is bizarre that brokers, hedge fund mavens and commentators can claim to be able to decipher the future and assign a precise numerical target to the value of Tesla,\" he said.In his final annual results at Scottish Mortgage, Anderson pointed to renewable energy, synthetic biology, and the changing landscape in healthcare innovation as among the revolutionary forces ahead in the market.Describing what makes for a great investment, he cited Amazon and its founder Jeff Bezos as a model. \"The company should have open-ended growth opportunities that they should work hard never to define or time,\" he said, alongside \"initial leadership that thinks like a founder (and almost always is one)\" as well as a distinctive philosophy of business.Today, Scottish Mortgage's top 10 holdings, in order of portfolio weight, are Tencent, biotechnology-equipment group Illumina (ILMN), Dutch semiconductor industry supplier ASML (ASML.AE), Amazon, Tesla, Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba $(09988)$, Chinese local services platform Meituan Dianping , U.S. biotech group Moderna $(MRNA)$, Chinese EV player NIO $(NIO)$, and European food-delivery group Delivery Hero.\"There's much that I have misunderstood and misjudged over the two decades,\" Anderson said, urging those that follow him to be eccentric, and to place trust in unreasonable people and propositions. \"My ever-growing conviction is that my greatest failing has been to be insufficiently radical.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":678,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811707760,"gmtCreate":1630342797450,"gmtModify":1676530276485,"author":{"id":"3579784300187475","authorId":"3579784300187475","name":"Jarenng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8245ce558dbd1566093156fae9c877","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579784300187475","idStr":"3579784300187475"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>u p to 40","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>u p to 40","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$u p to 40","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c43a072dea71be2043a4f2c0e6676cd","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/811707760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3934,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114530573,"gmtCreate":1623078783392,"gmtModify":1704195689814,"author":{"id":"3579784300187475","authorId":"3579784300187475","name":"Jarenng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8245ce558dbd1566093156fae9c877","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579784300187475","idStr":"3579784300187475"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>moon moon moon","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>moon moon moon","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$moon moon moon","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfa30f8f73d1fd3f026dbf04cfa13f34","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114530573","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1240,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132002498,"gmtCreate":1622042821314,"gmtModify":1704178452184,"author":{"id":"3579784300187475","authorId":"3579784300187475","name":"Jarenng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8245ce558dbd1566093156fae9c877","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579784300187475","idStr":"3579784300187475"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Better be good","listText":"Better be good","text":"Better be good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/132002498","repostId":"1107926084","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107926084","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622042301,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1107926084?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-26 23:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"June Outlook: Inflation, Jobs, And The Fed Take Center Stage In Month Ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107926084","media":"benzinga","summary":"A lot’s happening in June, but the most intense focus could be on a single event the afternoon of Ju","content":"<div>\n<p>A lot’s happening in June, but the most intense focus could be on a single event the afternoon of June 16.That’s when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) wraps up its June meeting and Fed ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/05/21300753/june-outlook-inflation-jobs-and-the-fed-take-center-stage-in-month-ahead\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>June Outlook: Inflation, Jobs, And The Fed Take Center Stage In Month Ahead</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJune Outlook: Inflation, Jobs, And The Fed Take Center Stage In Month Ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-26 23:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/05/21300753/june-outlook-inflation-jobs-and-the-fed-take-center-stage-in-month-ahead><strong>benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A lot’s happening in June, but the most intense focus could be on a single event the afternoon of June 16.That’s when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) wraps up its June meeting and Fed ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/05/21300753/june-outlook-inflation-jobs-and-the-fed-take-center-stage-in-month-ahead\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/05/21300753/june-outlook-inflation-jobs-and-the-fed-take-center-stage-in-month-ahead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107926084","content_text":"A lot’s happening in June, but the most intense focus could be on a single event the afternoon of June 16.That’s when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) wraps up its June meeting and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell addresses reporters. While a Powell press conference is important whenever it happens, this one has more significance than usual because of what the Fed said at its April meeting.Minutes from that gathering raised the chance of the Fed beginning to plan some sort of “taper” if the economy keeps galloping along. Remember, the Fed’s been snapping up $120 billion in Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities each month to provide liquidity and keep rates low during the pandemic, but has said it will begin “tapering,” or slowing the pace of those purchases, if certain employment parameters are met. Chances of a taper happening in the relatively near future suddenly appeared more likely based on the following words in the April minutes:“A number of participants suggested that if the economy continued to make rapid progress toward the Committee’s goals, it might be appropriate at some point in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a plan for adjusting the pace of asset purchases.”That statement appeared to surprise some analysts. They hadn’t expected the FOMC to publicly ponder actual tapering until possibly later this year. Those words, along with a string of robust economic data and earnings numbers, might have investors on tenterhooks waiting to hear the Fed’s fresh thinking on June 16. Will it give any hint of how long it’s willing to let things continue rolling full steam ahead? Just how worried are Powell and company about rising prices?Any sign that the Fed is ready to taper earlier than expected could cause Treasury yields to rise and potentially put pressure on the stock market.As The Fed Turns...It’s hard to blame Fed officials for wondering if the economy might be on the verge of overheating. After all, Q1 gross domestic product (GDP) grew more than 6%, the highest in decades. Layoffs appear to be trending much lower, if weekly initial jobless claims are correct, and many companies said during Q1 earnings season that they’re having supply chain issues even while paying more for the raw materials they need. This raises concerns about producer inflation making its way to consumers.The final straw might have been April’s consumer price index (CPI), which showed more than 4% year-over-year growth, the highest in a decade. Core month-over-month CPI saw its sharpest rise since April 1982, when President Reagan was serving his first term and Powell was a recent law school graduate.Though the Fed didn’t have all of this data in hand when it met in late April, the signs were already pointing toward major economic growth and price pressure, putting the Fed between the proverbial rock and a hard place.Powell has emphasized the importance of getting millions back to work, with unemployment still around 6% more than a year after the pandemic began. Earlier this year, the Fed made it very clear it would tolerate inflation above its 2% long-term target until employment got back on track, but this risks the chance of price pressure hurting consumers and companies. Corporate margins look very positive right now coming off huge Q1 earnings growth, but inflation over coming months could change that, perhaps resulting in pressure on stocks.There could be more Fed remarks in the next week or two, but then the pre-meeting silent period begins and June 16 looms. Powell is almost certainly going to face questions about those April meeting minutes.Tug-Of-War Persists Between Growth And ValueAll this focus on the Fed turns attention to the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, a major metric for economic growth, inflation, and interest rate anticipation. It rallied from near historic lows of around 0.95% at the start of the year to a late-March high of 1.78% as the economy improved and inflation fears gathered. It then pulled back and hung around near 1.6% for a couple of months, trading at 1.61% as of late May.Anywhere above 1.75% might look interesting now, and 2% might spark some fear in the market. The rally in yields earlier this year really helped snuff out the Info Tech rally, since many of those stocks are priced in part based on anticipation of future growth, something higher borrowing costs might compress.That helped lead to the current tug-of-war between value sectors like Financials and Energy that tend to do better in a recovering economy where inflation is rising and Growth ones like Tech that outperformed during the shutdowns of 2020. The battle has raged most of the last two months, though there are now signs of at least some investors beginning to bifurcate Tech between the huge, mature companies like AppleAAPL 0.09%and MicrosoftMSFT 0.05%and smaller firms more dependent on keeping future growth paths skyrocketing. The AAPLs and MSFTs of the world have often led the broader market higher the last few years, and could be less vulnerable then smaller Tech firms if interest rates do start to rise.FIGURE 1:  MAY MALAISE.After a strong start to 2021, the S&P 500 Index (SPX—candlestick) had some struggles in May amid inflation worries. The Nasdaq 100 (NDX—purple line) has had a much more checkered year as some investors favored value over growth sectors, and continued to be weak heading into June. Data Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices, Nasdaq. Chart source: The thinkorswim® platform. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.But we may be putting the cart ahead of the horse, so to speak. The April jobs growth number of 266,000 was way, way below Wall Street’s expectations for more than 700,000 and some bullish predictions of a million. That puts focus squarely on the May jobs growth number, due June 4. Another weak jobs reading for May might take some pressure off of the Fed and rates, with “bad news” possibly becoming “good news” for stocks, so to speak.Remember that different U.S. states were in different reopening modes in April, which may have affected that number. It’s possible some of the earlier job growth won’t show up until May, or the April number could be revised upward once things become clearer. A lot of what Powell says and does on June 16 will likely reflect the jobs report, along with inflation data like the May 28 personal consumption expenditure (PCE) prices, which the Fed is known to follow closely.The May CPI report on June 10 is another key one to watch next month when it comes to inflation. The Fed will have all that material in hand by the time it meets, giving it a clearer perspective.Homebuilders, “Stay-At-Home” Stocks Among June Earnings ReportsThat’s a mouthful about the Fed, inflation, jobs, and yields. What about the corporate world?As we emerge from a Q1 earnings season where the average S&P 500 company recorded earnings per share growth of nearly 52%, according to Factset, you might think earnings aren’t a big calendar item in June. That’s only partially true. While we won’t see a big crush of earnings reports, there are some key ones to watch, especially in the home building sector where both Lennar and KB Home are expected to report during the month.The housing market has been red hot, so a couple of April data points that missed analysts’ expectations (existing home sales and housing starts) might not be too big a deal. Having said that, the economy’s reopening could take peoples’ attention away from home buying and give strength to companies that focus on experiences rather than products. It’s possible some of the strength in housing and home improvement got pulled forward by the pandemic, just as we saw demand for internet conferences and home exercise equipment pulled forward. Keep an eye on what LEN and KBH say about demand when they report.Zoom Video , Kroger , Chewy , and Slack are some other companies whose businesses saw a big impact from Covid and release earnings in June. Most of them benefitted from people staying at home, questions remain over how much of their recent growth in sales has been sustainable vs. “demand pulled forward.” Many of their shares have lost ground and investors are eager to hear how they plan to keep the fizz bubbling post-Covid. Meanwhile, Tech earnings are a bit scarce in the month ahead, but Oracle is expected to be on the June release calendar.Keeping Watch on Crypto, VolatilityLike it or not, cryptocurrency could also help determine the market’s direction in June. It seemed like bitcoin set some of the momentum in late May, though that’s not a permanent indicator by any stretch of the imagination. However, when the news flow gets quiet and people start looking for indicators on how to trade, bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been something many investors watch. The question is whether the stock market is starting to divorce itself more from cryptocurrency after huge swings in bitcoin prices recently.Volatility is another metric to watch. The Cboe Volatility Index(VIX) hung around near 20 in late May after a month where it seldom went below 18 or above 25. VIX typically spends a long time trading in specific ranges, so the next thing to check is whether the current range holds or if it steps up or down. A move higher in volatility, especially any prolonged stays above 25, would presumably reflect mounting investor uncertainty and worries about what’s ahead. If VIX falls below 20 and stays there awhile, it could point to a quiet summer.We haven’t mentioned Covid so far except in passing. That’s a good thing, because it means it’s not front and center the way it once was. As of late May, the U.S. seemed to be on very good footing thanks to vaccinations, with case counts falling to the lowest daily levels in nearly a year. No one knows if this will continue, but we can be hopeful.We can also hope that the current devastating impact of Covid in parts of Asia slows down in the month ahead. Right now, it appears that the situation there might be putting a bit of pressure on the blazing commodity markets amid worries about overseas demand for products like crude and copper. China also tried to clamp down on commodity prices in late May, saying it will move to reduce speculation.We started with inflation, so might as well end with it. The commodities market is another aspect of pricing pressure, especially for companies in the Materials, Information Technology, Transport, and Industrial sectors. Costs rose sharply so far this year for many of the core products they use, but if commodities continue to level off or even fall in June, that could relieve some of the pressure on companies and the Fed. Whether that happens could be determined by progress against the pandemic the next few weeks in places like India, Japan, and South Korea.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":699,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153034351,"gmtCreate":1624984519473,"gmtModify":1703849592282,"author":{"id":"3579784300187475","authorId":"3579784300187475","name":"Jarenng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8245ce558dbd1566093156fae9c877","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579784300187475","idStr":"3579784300187475"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>:)))))))","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>:)))))))","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$:)))))))","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b91412f6703c6ee2baeb5c018dc93d3","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153034351","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4039,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112044869,"gmtCreate":1622831114351,"gmtModify":1704192108019,"author":{"id":"3579784300187475","authorId":"3579784300187475","name":"Jarenng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8245ce558dbd1566093156fae9c877","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579784300187475","idStr":"3579784300187475"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>sell all these","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>sell all these","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$sell all these","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f47e650f1032ddfe16afab63175012","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112044869","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1508,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":139304224,"gmtCreate":1621589209368,"gmtModify":1704360153111,"author":{"id":"3579784300187475","authorId":"3579784300187475","name":"Jarenng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8245ce558dbd1566093156fae9c877","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579784300187475","idStr":"3579784300187475"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It's coming. Govt controlling decentralised finance. Is it still decentralise the?","listText":"It's coming. Govt controlling decentralised finance. Is it still decentralise the?","text":"It's coming. Govt controlling decentralised finance. Is it still decentralise the?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/139304224","repostId":"2137903089","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2137903089","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1621586627,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2137903089?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-21 16:43","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Hong Kong to restrict crypto exchanges to professional investors","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2137903089","media":"Reuters","summary":"HONG KONG, May 21 (Reuters) - Cryptocurrency exchanges operating in Hong Kong will have to be licenc","content":"<p>HONG KONG, May 21 (Reuters) - Cryptocurrency exchanges operating in Hong Kong will have to be licenced by the city's markets regulator and will only be allowed to provide services to professional investors, according to government proposals to be presented later this year.</p><p>Hong Kong's Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau, which has been consulting the market on changes to rules for crypto exchanges since last year, intends to table the legislation in the upcoming 2021-22 session of the city's legislative assembly, it said in a statement on Friday.</p><p>Governments and financial regulators around the world are still assessing whether and how they should regulate the cryptocurrency industry. Investor protection and preventing money laundering are particular concerns.</p><p>Cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin and ether have been on a roller-coaster ride this week which has raised further questions about their potential as mainstream investments.</p><p>Dozens of cryptocurrency exchanges operate in Hong Kong, including some of the world's largest. The city currently has an \"opt in\" approach under which exchanges can apply to be licenced by markets watchdog the Securities and Futures Commission, but do not have to.</p><p>Hong Kong's Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FSTB\">$(FSTB)$</a> has been consulting the market on changes to those rules since last year.</p><p>The FSTB said on Friday in its consultation conclusions all virtual asset (crypto currency) exchanges should be licensed if they wished to operate in Hong Kong.</p><p>It also said \"confining the services of a VA exchange to professional investors.... is appropriate at least for the initial stage of the licensing regime.\"</p><p>Local financial technology and crypto industry associations have opposed regulation stopping exchanges from offering services to retail investors, warning this could drive exchanges out of Hong Kong and push investors onto unregulated venues.</p><p>According to Hong Kong law, an individual must have a portfolio of HK$8 million ($1.03 million) to count as a professional investor.</p><p>Regulators and governments in Asia have different attitudes to regulating cryptocurrencies and the exchanges on which they are traded.</p><p>Under Singapore's regime, crypto exchanges must be licenced, but can have retail investors as clients. However, China on Tuesday announced a tougher ban on banks and payment companies offering crypto-related services which furthered a selloff that briefly wiped $1 trillion off crypto market capitalisation.</p><p>The FSTB said it intends to propose legislative changes to turn its proposals into law in the upcoming 2021-22 session of the city's legislative assembly.</p><p>($1 = 7.7637 Hong Kong dollars)</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong to restrict crypto exchanges to professional investors</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong to restrict crypto exchanges to professional investors\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-21 16:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>HONG KONG, May 21 (Reuters) - Cryptocurrency exchanges operating in Hong Kong will have to be licenced by the city's markets regulator and will only be allowed to provide services to professional investors, according to government proposals to be presented later this year.</p><p>Hong Kong's Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau, which has been consulting the market on changes to rules for crypto exchanges since last year, intends to table the legislation in the upcoming 2021-22 session of the city's legislative assembly, it said in a statement on Friday.</p><p>Governments and financial regulators around the world are still assessing whether and how they should regulate the cryptocurrency industry. Investor protection and preventing money laundering are particular concerns.</p><p>Cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin and ether have been on a roller-coaster ride this week which has raised further questions about their potential as mainstream investments.</p><p>Dozens of cryptocurrency exchanges operate in Hong Kong, including some of the world's largest. The city currently has an \"opt in\" approach under which exchanges can apply to be licenced by markets watchdog the Securities and Futures Commission, but do not have to.</p><p>Hong Kong's Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FSTB\">$(FSTB)$</a> has been consulting the market on changes to those rules since last year.</p><p>The FSTB said on Friday in its consultation conclusions all virtual asset (crypto currency) exchanges should be licensed if they wished to operate in Hong Kong.</p><p>It also said \"confining the services of a VA exchange to professional investors.... is appropriate at least for the initial stage of the licensing regime.\"</p><p>Local financial technology and crypto industry associations have opposed regulation stopping exchanges from offering services to retail investors, warning this could drive exchanges out of Hong Kong and push investors onto unregulated venues.</p><p>According to Hong Kong law, an individual must have a portfolio of HK$8 million ($1.03 million) to count as a professional investor.</p><p>Regulators and governments in Asia have different attitudes to regulating cryptocurrencies and the exchanges on which they are traded.</p><p>Under Singapore's regime, crypto exchanges must be licenced, but can have retail investors as clients. However, China on Tuesday announced a tougher ban on banks and payment companies offering crypto-related services which furthered a selloff that briefly wiped $1 trillion off crypto market capitalisation.</p><p>The FSTB said it intends to propose legislative changes to turn its proposals into law in the upcoming 2021-22 session of the city's legislative assembly.</p><p>($1 = 7.7637 Hong Kong dollars)</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSCCI":"红筹指数","HSI":"恒生指数","GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale","HSCEI":"国企指数","01611":"新火科技控股"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2137903089","content_text":"HONG KONG, May 21 (Reuters) - Cryptocurrency exchanges operating in Hong Kong will have to be licenced by the city's markets regulator and will only be allowed to provide services to professional investors, according to government proposals to be presented later this year.Hong Kong's Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau, which has been consulting the market on changes to rules for crypto exchanges since last year, intends to table the legislation in the upcoming 2021-22 session of the city's legislative assembly, it said in a statement on Friday.Governments and financial regulators around the world are still assessing whether and how they should regulate the cryptocurrency industry. Investor protection and preventing money laundering are particular concerns.Cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin and ether have been on a roller-coaster ride this week which has raised further questions about their potential as mainstream investments.Dozens of cryptocurrency exchanges operate in Hong Kong, including some of the world's largest. The city currently has an \"opt in\" approach under which exchanges can apply to be licenced by markets watchdog the Securities and Futures Commission, but do not have to.Hong Kong's Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau $(FSTB)$ has been consulting the market on changes to those rules since last year.The FSTB said on Friday in its consultation conclusions all virtual asset (crypto currency) exchanges should be licensed if they wished to operate in Hong Kong.It also said \"confining the services of a VA exchange to professional investors.... is appropriate at least for the initial stage of the licensing regime.\"Local financial technology and crypto industry associations have opposed regulation stopping exchanges from offering services to retail investors, warning this could drive exchanges out of Hong Kong and push investors onto unregulated venues.According to Hong Kong law, an individual must have a portfolio of HK$8 million ($1.03 million) to count as a professional investor.Regulators and governments in Asia have different attitudes to regulating cryptocurrencies and the exchanges on which they are traded.Under Singapore's regime, crypto exchanges must be licenced, but can have retail investors as clients. However, China on Tuesday announced a tougher ban on banks and payment companies offering crypto-related services which furthered a selloff that briefly wiped $1 trillion off crypto market capitalisation.The FSTB said it intends to propose legislative changes to turn its proposals into law in the upcoming 2021-22 session of the city's legislative assembly.($1 = 7.7637 Hong Kong dollars)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BTCmain":0.9,"01611":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"GBTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":853,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}