Shervin2112 personal page - To The Moon

Shervin2112

Shervin2112

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2022-11-03

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$good luck And happy Halloween

2023-04-17

More games like this one and better rewards please[开心]

2022-12-14

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Down till $130before it goes to the moon!

2022-10-27

$Apple(AAPL)$ Hoping for bullish but looking bearish

2022-10-21

$S&P 500(.SPX)$Gonna drop with the poor macro conditions[Cry] . Let hope Nov22 improves. Hang on everyone

2022-10-27

Yes! This week should be fine.[Happy] But maybe not after FOMC[Cry]

2022-10-20

[Cry]

Apple Earnings Are Likely To Bomb Going Forward

2023-04-16

Good luck everyone🤎💗

@TigerEvents:【Game】Easter Egg Hunting with Tiger, Win Disney Shares and USD 120 Voucher

2023-04-16

Hop hop hop all the way!

2023-04-14

Enjoy the hop to the moon

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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everyone🤎💗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9945723859","repostId":"9943960936","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9943960936,"gmtCreate":1679046534725,"gmtModify":1680580626622,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667667103859","idStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"【Game】Easter Egg Hunting with Tiger, Win Disney Shares and USD 120 Voucher","htmlText":"🐰🌷 Hop into the Easter spirit and join our \"Tiger's Egg Hunting\" game! 🎉Stand to win free Disney stocks and a USD 120 cash voucher!🎁🌟Our interactive Easter game is open to Tigers, and it's so easy to play! 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Let's fly to the moon together!Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win BIG! Join the game now and hop on your way to victory. 🥳🐣<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2023/easter/?adcode=20230316162207#/\" target=\"_blank\">Join our Easter campaign now</a>","text":"🐰🌷 Hop into the Easter spirit and join our \"Tiger's Egg Hunting\" game! 🎉Stand to win free Disney stocks and a USD 120 cash voucher!🎁🌟Our interactive Easter game is open to Tigers, and it's so easy to play! Simply jump and catch the egg, and you could be a lucky winner. 🐇That's not all. You can also invite your friends to join in the fun to earn more points. Plus, you can challenge your friends for a race up the leaderboard. Let's fly to the moon together!Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win BIG! Join the game now and hop on your way to victory. 🥳🐣Join our Easter campaign now","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c90a7371a3bcd1e6c552d2aa23f72c33","width":"1200","height":"630"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943960936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9945729537,"gmtCreate":1681602860929,"gmtModify":1681602866161,"author":{"id":"3578822947991990","authorId":"3578822947991990","name":"Shervin2112","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9e255105b8bd0141a86f13a0ee7b292","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578822947991990","idStr":"3578822947991990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hop hop hop all the way!","listText":"Hop hop hop all the way!","text":"Hop hop hop all the way!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9945729537","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1962,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9945174271,"gmtCreate":1681411350093,"gmtModify":1681411353623,"author":{"id":"3578822947991990","authorId":"3578822947991990","name":"Shervin2112","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9e255105b8bd0141a86f13a0ee7b292","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578822947991990","idStr":"3578822947991990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Enjoy the hop to the moon","listText":"Enjoy the hop to the moon","text":"Enjoy the hop to the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9945174271","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9921824130,"gmtCreate":1671030125320,"gmtModify":1676538478580,"author":{"id":"3578822947991990","authorId":"3578822947991990","name":"Shervin2112","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9e255105b8bd0141a86f13a0ee7b292","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578822947991990","idStr":"3578822947991990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>Down till $130before it goes to the moon!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>Down till $130before it goes to the moon!","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Down till $130before it goes to the moon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9921824130","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2029,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920550739,"gmtCreate":1670523952221,"gmtModify":1676538385743,"author":{"id":"3578822947991990","authorId":"3578822947991990","name":"Shervin2112","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9e255105b8bd0141a86f13a0ee7b292","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578822947991990","idStr":"3578822947991990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No rally. Have to wait till next year[Cry]&nbsp; Merry Christmas all!","listText":"No rally. Have to wait till next year[Cry]&nbsp; Merry Christmas all!","text":"No rally. Have to wait till next year[Cry] Merry Christmas all!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920550739","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1712,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966721913,"gmtCreate":1669649830632,"gmtModify":1676538218742,"author":{"id":"3578822947991990","authorId":"3578822947991990","name":"Shervin2112","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9e255105b8bd0141a86f13a0ee7b292","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578822947991990","idStr":"3578822947991990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$Amazon.com(AMZN)$&nbsp;</a>With consumer spendings in 2022","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$Amazon.com(AMZN)$&nbsp;</a>With consumer spendings in 2022","text":"$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ With consumer spendings in 2022","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966721913","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1886,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961016412,"gmtCreate":1668784917836,"gmtModify":1676538113791,"author":{"id":"3578822947991990","authorId":"3578822947991990","name":"Shervin2112","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9e255105b8bd0141a86f13a0ee7b292","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578822947991990","idStr":"3578822947991990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Happy thanksgiving&nbsp;","listText":"Happy thanksgiving&nbsp;","text":"Happy thanksgiving","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961016412","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2015,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963195904,"gmtCreate":1668612260608,"gmtModify":1676538084775,"author":{"id":"3578822947991990","authorId":"3578822947991990","name":"Shervin2112","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9e255105b8bd0141a86f13a0ee7b292","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578822947991990","idStr":"3578822947991990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>still holding","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>still holding","text":"$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$ still holding","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/38c0397ea8ea3bbea7279d9a77cbd91d","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963195904","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2016,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9985253843,"gmtCreate":1667405609582,"gmtModify":1676537912769,"author":{"id":"3578822947991990","authorId":"3578822947991990","name":"Shervin2112","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9e255105b8bd0141a86f13a0ee7b292","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578822947991990","idStr":"3578822947991990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>good luck And happy Halloween","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>good luck And happy Halloween","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$good luck And happy Halloween","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/41a7c71c368ea37931d79cc75e2cd595","width":"1560","height":"1154"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9985253843","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9985329723,"gmtCreate":1667317651163,"gmtModify":1676537897436,"author":{"id":"3578822947991990","authorId":"3578822947991990","name":"Shervin2112","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9e255105b8bd0141a86f13a0ee7b292","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578822947991990","idStr":"3578822947991990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Looks red<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$Nasdaq100 ETF(TQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"Looks red<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$Nasdaq100 ETF(TQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"Looks red$Nasdaq100 ETF(TQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9985329723","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":605,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9986948225,"gmtCreate":1666880085567,"gmtModify":1676537822942,"author":{"id":"3578822947991990","authorId":"3578822947991990","name":"Shervin2112","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9e255105b8bd0141a86f13a0ee7b292","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578822947991990","idStr":"3578822947991990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes! This week should be fine.[Happy]&nbsp; But maybe not after FOMC[Cry]&nbsp;","listText":"Yes! This week should be fine.[Happy]&nbsp; But maybe not after FOMC[Cry]&nbsp;","text":"Yes! This week should be fine.[Happy] But maybe not after FOMC[Cry]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986948225","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988496209,"gmtCreate":1666806850501,"gmtModify":1676537808989,"author":{"id":"3578822947991990","authorId":"3578822947991990","name":"Shervin2112","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9e255105b8bd0141a86f13a0ee7b292","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578822947991990","idStr":"3578822947991990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a> Hoping for bullish but looking&nbsp;bearish","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a> Hoping for bullish but looking&nbsp;bearish","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ Hoping for bullish but looking bearish","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988496209","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":671,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988815913,"gmtCreate":1666725520532,"gmtModify":1676537795182,"author":{"id":"3578822947991990","authorId":"3578822947991990","name":"Shervin2112","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9e255105b8bd0141a86f13a0ee7b292","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578822947991990","idStr":"3578822947991990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Still holding&nbsp;[Spurting]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Still holding&nbsp;[Spurting]&nbsp;","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$Still holding [Spurting]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/25b7b3be52775beda721de215ade39ea","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988815913","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":756,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988161828,"gmtCreate":1666697675764,"gmtModify":1676537791646,"author":{"id":"3578822947991990","authorId":"3578822947991990","name":"Shervin2112","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9e255105b8bd0141a86f13a0ee7b292","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578822947991990","idStr":"3578822947991990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Inflation still high[OMG]&nbsp;. Jobless numbers&nbsp;still low. 75bps is my&nbsp;view[Gosh]&nbsp;","listText":"Inflation still high[OMG]&nbsp;. Jobless numbers&nbsp;still low. 75bps is my&nbsp;view[Gosh]&nbsp;","text":"Inflation still high[OMG] . Jobless numbers still low. 75bps is my view[Gosh]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988161828","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":898,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9983543125,"gmtCreate":1666292081467,"gmtModify":1676537735609,"author":{"id":"3578822947991990","authorId":"3578822947991990","name":"Shervin2112","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9e255105b8bd0141a86f13a0ee7b292","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578822947991990","idStr":"3578822947991990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a>Gonna drop with the poor macro conditions[Cry]&nbsp;. Let hope Nov22 improves. Hang on everyone","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a>Gonna drop with the poor macro conditions[Cry]&nbsp;. Let hope Nov22 improves. Hang on everyone","text":"$S&P 500(.SPX)$Gonna drop with the poor macro conditions[Cry] . Let hope Nov22 improves. Hang on everyone","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9983543125","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":855,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9983807935,"gmtCreate":1666196489627,"gmtModify":1676537721347,"author":{"id":"3578822947991990","authorId":"3578822947991990","name":"Shervin2112","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9e255105b8bd0141a86f13a0ee7b292","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578822947991990","idStr":"3578822947991990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Cry]&nbsp;","listText":"[Cry]&nbsp;","text":"[Cry]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9983807935","repostId":"1163149585","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163149585","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1666188491,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163149585?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-19 22:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Earnings Are Likely To Bomb Going Forward","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163149585","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryApple is going against astounding year-over-year comps from 2021's free-money/YOLO economy. B","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Apple is going against astounding year-over-year comps from 2021&#39;s free-money/YOLO economy. But as the economy softens, are people really going to go out of their way to upgrade their iPhones?</li><li>2021 was &#34;peak everything&#34; for consumers, with spending on consumer goods like Apple&#39;s products being a key bellwether.</li><li>Apple&#39;s U-turn on its planned iPhone production ramp is a clear early warning signal for earnings to decline, but few investors are listening.</li><li>Apple has also been a prime beneficiary of tax cuts, QE, and stimulus, while the underlying net income of its business looks more sluggish and cyclical.</li><li>While Apple is a decent business, you should not get sucked into paying high PE ratios for popular stocks with earnings at cyclical peaks, or your portfolio will likely suffer the consequences.</li></ul><p>Some buy-and-hold investors may consider this blasphemy, but since late 2019 Apple&#39;s (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock price has grown increasingly disconnected from the reality of its underlying business. Apple&#39;s stock is ground zero for investors that expect stimulus-fueled levels of consumer spending to last forever. In reality, investors are tripping over each other to pay a peak multiple for consumer discretionary stocks like AAPL at peak earnings. This is unlikely to succeed as an investing strategy. To this point, the present valuation of Apple is a gift to investors, who now have the opportunity to sell while the stock is overvalued and allocate money elsewhere.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c74fbc6467060e07ea0d8b8477c0a63f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><h3>The Pandemic Didn&#39;t Fundamentally Change Apple&#39;s Business</h3><p>Of course, Apple is a profitable business. But the beauty of looking at Apple&#39;s income statement is that it can tell you why the company is making more money and whether the share price is increasing faster or slower than the business.</p><p>Apple&#39;s share price shows powerful gains, trading for about 5.9x more than it did 10 years ago.</p><p>EPS is up a lot over the last 10 years (3.8x), but not as much as the share price.</p><p>And EPS, in turn, is up a lot more than net income (2.4x).</p><p>When you subtract out corporate tax cuts and the benefit from lower interest rates, earnings are only 2.1x the levels of 10 years ago.</p><p>Moreover, nearly all of this growth has come recently during the pandemic. From 2012 to 2019, earnings before interest and taxes had only grown about 16%! The rest was all from tax cuts, lower interest rates, stimulus, and Apple&#39;s buyback. Not to discount the wisdom of buybacks in general- it was great when Apple was buying its shares back at like 10x earnings. But recently at 30x earnings? Not so much!</p><p>It&#39;s strange when you think about it, but Apple&#39;s story has been similarly borne out among thousands of companies with the same trend of Market Cap Growth &gt; EPS Growth&gt; Net Income Growth&gt; EBIT Growth. Valuations have risen faster than earnings, which in turn have been juiced by stimulus, falling interest rates, and deficit-financed corporate tax cuts. In the end, investors are getting a lot of sizzle and not much steak.</p><p>If you&#39;re buying Apple here, you really need a compelling reason why Apple&#39;s business has fundamentally improved since 2019. I don&#39;t see one, besides people getting free money from the government. iPhone sales have been higher post-pandemic than previously, but consider that the US government handed out approximately $10,000 per family in stimulus in 2021. That&#39;s tax-free cash in addition to wages 95% of people were making working in 2021, so it was generally pure profit to recipients. In addition, remember that consumers had limited choices for travel, entertainment, and events, which directed spending towards consumer goods like Apple&#39;s.</p><p>But what will happen to consumer spending this holiday season without $10,000 per family in free money and with raging inflation squeezing budgets? A massive miss in profits for consumer discretionary companies is the most likely outcome. Analysts are now slowly starting the process of revising Apple&#39;s earnings estimates down. The danger here is deceptive, as evidenced by the recent earnings misses of Adobe (ADBE), FedEx (FDX), and Restoration Hardware (RH) that reported off-cycle. Traders are excited because banks like Bank of America (BAC) reported higher profits from the Fed&#39;s interest rate hiking campaign. However, as the earnings cycle turns to consumer discretionary and tech there will likely be a bunch of stocks getting routed, with high-profile stocks like Apple and Amazon (AMZN) being likely victims.</p><h3>What To Expect From Apple&#39;s Earnings: Not Sustainable</h3><p>Apple reports quarterly earnings after the market closes on Thursday, October 27th. As always, Apple&#39;s report will be followed by their quarterly earnings call (and posted on Seeking Alpha shortly after). Analysts expect earnings of $1.27 for the quarter. Apple no longer gives earnings guidance- there&#39;s no requirement to do so even though they did so in the past. But this causes investors to get too excited about Apple&#39;s prospects rather than actually looking at the numbers. For investors to expect profits to simply level off with the rug pulled on stimulus is naive. Even before the recent revisions, Wall Street analysts had only projected mid-single-digit EPS growth for Apple over the next few years. That&#39;s not a huge vote of confidence. If you take these estimates at face value, Apple trades for over 22x next fiscal year&#39;s earnings with middling growth prospects. By contrast, the S&amp;P 500 currently trades for about 15.6x analyst earnings estimates and has roughly equal growth prospects. The long-running story for Apple of course has been growth in services revenue, but I expect that to slow dramatically as the amount they can squeeze Google (GOOG) dramatically slows. If Apple can tell TSMC (TSM) no on price increases, then Google can likely do the same for Apple.</p><p>This wouldn&#39;t be so bad except for the likelihood that earnings estimates are wildly inflated due to the massive stimulus in 2021. Once you account for the stimulus, I don&#39;t think there&#39;s much that fundamentally changed for Apple, its products, or its business prospects. In fact, people are likely to delay upgrading iPhones for years since they upgraded en masse in 2021 and early 2022. Apple is oddly out of step with the rest of the industry on this- they recently had to pull a U-turn on a planned 7% ramp in production. We can draw some clues on demand from the broader semiconductor market, with Micron (MU) and Nvidia (NVDA) acknowledging the slowdown in September, with Intel (INTC) announcing weak results and job cuts shortly after. Taiwan Semiconductor announced results a few days ago and warned of weakening demand. There&#39;s also the issue of the strong dollar, which eats away at Apple&#39;s US dollar profits on sales made outside the US. If past cycles are any guide, earnings for mature consumer-centric companies like Apple are likely to fall substantially. Without stimulus, AAPL&#39;s earnings could easily trend back to a bit above its pre-pandemic numbers, pushing the stock below $100 and likely below $75. There are severe, structural problems with the ability of consumers to continue to spend at the rate they are, and consumer discretionary companies are on the frontlines of this change. Raging inflation, lack of stimulus, declines in real earnings, etc., all have a hand in this. And when the hammer eventually drops on student loan forbearance, that&#39;s another 1% or more of the national income sucked back into the U.S. Treasury- equivalent to a fairly broad income tax hike.</p><h3>Mega Cap Tech Valuations: Signal And Noise</h3><p>There&#39;s a classic experiment in statistics where if you put a bunch of people&#39;s guesses together, the highest numbers are likely to be overestimated, while the lowest numbers are likely to be underestimated. For example, if we poll 100 people on how many jellybeans are in a jar or what the margin of victory will be for a candidate in the midterm elections, the highest estimates are likely to be wrong. The high estimates tend to have more noise in them than the ones in the middle. Financial markets aren&#39;t so different. Research shows companies that have the world&#39;s largest market caps tend to subsequently underperform. High P/E ratios combined with high-popularity stocks end up being far more noise than signal and are best avoided.</p><p>Apple is the world&#39;s most valuable company, and it has been this way for a while. But in contrast to my previous research on the disposition effect and Apple stock being worth more than the business as late as 2019, you simply can&#39;t justify the near tripling in price since then. By contrast, you can sell Apple and put your money in a basket of small-cap stocks (IJR) that are trading at similar valuations to 2019. Don&#39;t be fooled by stocks that see huge gains in share price without corresponding growth in the underlying business. History shows that doing this means you&#39;ll be consigned to years of low or negative returns.</p><h3>Bottom Line</h3><p>For a variety of reasons that are unlikely to prove sustainable, Apple has nearly tripled in price since the summer of 2019. Seeking Alpha&#39;s quant model gives the stock an F for valuation and a D+ for growth. This mirrors the lack of enthusiasm for Wall Street analysts on Apple&#39;s growth prospects. AAPL is now among the most overvalued large-cap names. Investors should consider selling and either allocating to Treasury bills that pay 4-4.5% annually, or to small-cap stocks that trade for less than half the valuation of Apple. Do you agree? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Earnings Are Likely To Bomb Going Forward</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Earnings Are Likely To Bomb Going Forward\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-19 22:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4547242-apple-earnings-are-likely-to-bomb-going-forward><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryApple is going against astounding year-over-year comps from 2021's free-money/YOLO economy. But as the economy softens, are people really going to go out of their way to upgrade their iPhones?...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4547242-apple-earnings-are-likely-to-bomb-going-forward\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4547242-apple-earnings-are-likely-to-bomb-going-forward","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163149585","content_text":"SummaryApple is going against astounding year-over-year comps from 2021's free-money/YOLO economy. But as the economy softens, are people really going to go out of their way to upgrade their iPhones?2021 was \"peak everything\" for consumers, with spending on consumer goods like Apple's products being a key bellwether.Apple's U-turn on its planned iPhone production ramp is a clear early warning signal for earnings to decline, but few investors are listening.Apple has also been a prime beneficiary of tax cuts, QE, and stimulus, while the underlying net income of its business looks more sluggish and cyclical.While Apple is a decent business, you should not get sucked into paying high PE ratios for popular stocks with earnings at cyclical peaks, or your portfolio will likely suffer the consequences.Some buy-and-hold investors may consider this blasphemy, but since late 2019 Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock price has grown increasingly disconnected from the reality of its underlying business. Apple's stock is ground zero for investors that expect stimulus-fueled levels of consumer spending to last forever. In reality, investors are tripping over each other to pay a peak multiple for consumer discretionary stocks like AAPL at peak earnings. This is unlikely to succeed as an investing strategy. To this point, the present valuation of Apple is a gift to investors, who now have the opportunity to sell while the stock is overvalued and allocate money elsewhere.Data by YChartsThe Pandemic Didn't Fundamentally Change Apple's BusinessOf course, Apple is a profitable business. But the beauty of looking at Apple's income statement is that it can tell you why the company is making more money and whether the share price is increasing faster or slower than the business.Apple's share price shows powerful gains, trading for about 5.9x more than it did 10 years ago.EPS is up a lot over the last 10 years (3.8x), but not as much as the share price.And EPS, in turn, is up a lot more than net income (2.4x).When you subtract out corporate tax cuts and the benefit from lower interest rates, earnings are only 2.1x the levels of 10 years ago.Moreover, nearly all of this growth has come recently during the pandemic. From 2012 to 2019, earnings before interest and taxes had only grown about 16%! The rest was all from tax cuts, lower interest rates, stimulus, and Apple's buyback. Not to discount the wisdom of buybacks in general- it was great when Apple was buying its shares back at like 10x earnings. But recently at 30x earnings? Not so much!It's strange when you think about it, but Apple's story has been similarly borne out among thousands of companies with the same trend of Market Cap Growth > EPS Growth> Net Income Growth> EBIT Growth. Valuations have risen faster than earnings, which in turn have been juiced by stimulus, falling interest rates, and deficit-financed corporate tax cuts. In the end, investors are getting a lot of sizzle and not much steak.If you're buying Apple here, you really need a compelling reason why Apple's business has fundamentally improved since 2019. I don't see one, besides people getting free money from the government. iPhone sales have been higher post-pandemic than previously, but consider that the US government handed out approximately $10,000 per family in stimulus in 2021. That's tax-free cash in addition to wages 95% of people were making working in 2021, so it was generally pure profit to recipients. In addition, remember that consumers had limited choices for travel, entertainment, and events, which directed spending towards consumer goods like Apple's.But what will happen to consumer spending this holiday season without $10,000 per family in free money and with raging inflation squeezing budgets? A massive miss in profits for consumer discretionary companies is the most likely outcome. Analysts are now slowly starting the process of revising Apple's earnings estimates down. The danger here is deceptive, as evidenced by the recent earnings misses of Adobe (ADBE), FedEx (FDX), and Restoration Hardware (RH) that reported off-cycle. Traders are excited because banks like Bank of America (BAC) reported higher profits from the Fed's interest rate hiking campaign. However, as the earnings cycle turns to consumer discretionary and tech there will likely be a bunch of stocks getting routed, with high-profile stocks like Apple and Amazon (AMZN) being likely victims.What To Expect From Apple's Earnings: Not SustainableApple reports quarterly earnings after the market closes on Thursday, October 27th. As always, Apple's report will be followed by their quarterly earnings call (and posted on Seeking Alpha shortly after). Analysts expect earnings of $1.27 for the quarter. Apple no longer gives earnings guidance- there's no requirement to do so even though they did so in the past. But this causes investors to get too excited about Apple's prospects rather than actually looking at the numbers. For investors to expect profits to simply level off with the rug pulled on stimulus is naive. Even before the recent revisions, Wall Street analysts had only projected mid-single-digit EPS growth for Apple over the next few years. That's not a huge vote of confidence. If you take these estimates at face value, Apple trades for over 22x next fiscal year's earnings with middling growth prospects. By contrast, the S&P 500 currently trades for about 15.6x analyst earnings estimates and has roughly equal growth prospects. The long-running story for Apple of course has been growth in services revenue, but I expect that to slow dramatically as the amount they can squeeze Google (GOOG) dramatically slows. If Apple can tell TSMC (TSM) no on price increases, then Google can likely do the same for Apple.This wouldn't be so bad except for the likelihood that earnings estimates are wildly inflated due to the massive stimulus in 2021. Once you account for the stimulus, I don't think there's much that fundamentally changed for Apple, its products, or its business prospects. In fact, people are likely to delay upgrading iPhones for years since they upgraded en masse in 2021 and early 2022. Apple is oddly out of step with the rest of the industry on this- they recently had to pull a U-turn on a planned 7% ramp in production. We can draw some clues on demand from the broader semiconductor market, with Micron (MU) and Nvidia (NVDA) acknowledging the slowdown in September, with Intel (INTC) announcing weak results and job cuts shortly after. Taiwan Semiconductor announced results a few days ago and warned of weakening demand. There's also the issue of the strong dollar, which eats away at Apple's US dollar profits on sales made outside the US. If past cycles are any guide, earnings for mature consumer-centric companies like Apple are likely to fall substantially. Without stimulus, AAPL's earnings could easily trend back to a bit above its pre-pandemic numbers, pushing the stock below $100 and likely below $75. There are severe, structural problems with the ability of consumers to continue to spend at the rate they are, and consumer discretionary companies are on the frontlines of this change. Raging inflation, lack of stimulus, declines in real earnings, etc., all have a hand in this. And when the hammer eventually drops on student loan forbearance, that's another 1% or more of the national income sucked back into the U.S. Treasury- equivalent to a fairly broad income tax hike.Mega Cap Tech Valuations: Signal And NoiseThere's a classic experiment in statistics where if you put a bunch of people's guesses together, the highest numbers are likely to be overestimated, while the lowest numbers are likely to be underestimated. For example, if we poll 100 people on how many jellybeans are in a jar or what the margin of victory will be for a candidate in the midterm elections, the highest estimates are likely to be wrong. The high estimates tend to have more noise in them than the ones in the middle. Financial markets aren't so different. Research shows companies that have the world's largest market caps tend to subsequently underperform. High P/E ratios combined with high-popularity stocks end up being far more noise than signal and are best avoided.Apple is the world's most valuable company, and it has been this way for a while. But in contrast to my previous research on the disposition effect and Apple stock being worth more than the business as late as 2019, you simply can't justify the near tripling in price since then. By contrast, you can sell Apple and put your money in a basket of small-cap stocks (IJR) that are trading at similar valuations to 2019. Don't be fooled by stocks that see huge gains in share price without corresponding growth in the underlying business. History shows that doing this means you'll be consigned to years of low or negative returns.Bottom LineFor a variety of reasons that are unlikely to prove sustainable, Apple has nearly tripled in price since the summer of 2019. Seeking Alpha's quant model gives the stock an F for valuation and a D+ for growth. This mirrors the lack of enthusiasm for Wall Street analysts on Apple's growth prospects. AAPL is now among the most overvalued large-cap names. Investors should consider selling and either allocating to Treasury bills that pay 4-4.5% annually, or to small-cap stocks that trade for less than half the valuation of Apple. Do you agree? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":784,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915528191,"gmtCreate":1665075823814,"gmtModify":1676537553388,"author":{"id":"3578822947991990","authorId":"3578822947991990","name":"Shervin2112","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9e255105b8bd0141a86f13a0ee7b292","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578822947991990","idStr":"3578822947991990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915528191","repostId":"2273840514","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2273840514","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1665044703,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2273840514?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-06 16:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Agree To Buy At $200, Get Instant 3%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2273840514","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Return:The premium collected  for setting aside $20,000 represents a 3% return for a month. This is a handy return anytime and even more so in the current market environment. At this time, the market assigns at 77.20% probability that Tesla remains above $200 by expiration on November 4th. To reiterate the impact of the recent stock split, the same transaction would have required $60,000 to be set aside as we'd have been talking about a $600 strike price. Granted, the premium returns would be hi","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>A 10% haircut after losing 36% from highs makes Tesla more attractive.</li><li>This article explains why $200 is attractive to us.</li><li>Always be aware of your risks when dealing with options. Play safe.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7f3cb26254a710c00fc93610b6f816b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>jetcityimage</span></p><p>Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) lost nearly 10% of its stock price recently after deliveries underwhelmed as Seeking Alpha has covered here. These are strange times for the stock market as companies that are worth a Trillion lose in oneday what most companies are not even worth in their lifetime. Keep in mind, Tesla lost nearly 10% on a day the market rebounded. If the recent sentiment prevails on Tesla (as we are betting), then the next few red days for the market will be much harder for Tesla longs. But, with such pain come opportunities for those who can stomach the wild rides.</p><p>The stock is rebounding a bit in premarket due to the general market mood and the news that Cathy Wood dipped into the sell-off. But we strongly believe the next few days will provide some juicy opportunities for those willing to sell cash-secured puts. Tesla&#39;s recent stock split makes these transactions a lot easier for retail investors. Before the recent 3:1 split, selling a single contract for 100 shares would have required three times the capital to be set aside. Let us use the chain below as an example and see how things look now post-split.</p><h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/169ef27872a01b2f4e10b8f2bbb3595a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"149\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>TSLA Option Chain (Think or Swim)</span></p>Key data points</h2><ul><li>Strike Price: $200</li><li>Expiration Date: November 4th, 2022, exactly a month from today.</li><li>Premium: $6/share, for a total of $600.</li></ul><p>In simple words, the put seller collects $600 immediately to buy 100 shares of Tesla at $200 if the stock reaches $200 or below by November 4th, 2022. Bear in mind that time decay is in favor of the option seller, meaning as days go by, the option values decline.</p><h2>What&#39;s the expected return and possible outcomes?</h2><p><b>Return:</b> The premium collected ($600) for setting aside $20,000 represents a 3% return for a month. This is a handy return anytime and even more so in the current market environment. At this time, the market assigns at 77.20% probability that Tesla remains above $200 by expiration on November 4th. To reiterate the impact of the recent stock split, the same transaction would have required $60,000 to be set aside as we&#39;d have been talking about a $600 strike price. Granted, the premium returns would be higher (in dollar), but it is common sense that more investors can afford $20,000 compared to those who can afford $60,000.</p><p><i>Outcome #1:</i> If Tesla stays above $200 by the expiration date, the option seller just retains the premium mentioned above. The option seller will not be obligated to buy the shares.</p><p><i>Outcome #2:</i> If Tesla goes below $200 by the expiration date, the option seller will be forced to buy 100 shares at $200, irrespective of where the stock trades at that time. Keeping the premium netted in mind, the average cost, in this case, will be $194 ($200 minus $6).</p><p><i>Outcome #3:</i> As an option seller, one can &#34;buy to close&#34; anytime instead of waiting till the expiration date. That may be appealing to those who have the time and patience to play short-dated options many times over. But we typically let the option expire before choosing another chain (or another stock).</p><p>Outcome #4: We will write in detail about this in a future article, but we wanted to mention this as many readers of the Amazon (AMZN) article pointed out. An option seller can always roll into future dated options. That is, instead of getting out of the game entirely by following one of the first three outcomes above, you can close the current option and initiate a new chain with a different strike/expiration/premium combination as a single transaction. There are risks and advantages to this as we plan to describe later.</p><h2>Why $200 Looks attractive?</h2><ul><li><b>Trend:</b> Apart from being a nice round number, $200 is about 20% below the current market price, a bear market by itself by definition. That is on top of the 36% already lost from highs, making $200 more than 50% off from highs. In our view, that is a compelling enough pullback for a company that still has many growth avenues in front of it.</li><li><b>Valuation:</b> At $200, Tesla will be trading at a PEG ratio of less than 1. This is based on a forward multiple of 46 [$200 divided by forward EPS of $4.32] and the five year expected growth rate of 55%. As avid followers of Growth at Reasonable Price [GARP] would attest, a PEG of less than 1 makes a stock more attractive.</li><li><b>Technical:</b> From a technical standpoint, $200 has historically offered plenty of support to the stock. As shown in the chart below, the stock has bounced off from $200 level at least five times in the last two years.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ff7c149c2736d5d318a9f05d5f660af\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>TSLA Chart (Google Charts)</span></p><h2>Many ways to skin the cat</h2><p>If the $200 strike price and the 3% premium return don&#39;t appeal to you and if you are looking for a higher premium return, consider strike price like the one below. In this example, the options seller agrees to buy 100 shares of Tesla at $220 should the stock reach that by November 4th, while collecting a premium of about $11 per share. That&#39;s a much higher return of 5% return in a month, but the risk the seller takes here is that the strike price is just 10% away from the current market price. One more day like yesterday, and you may be obligated to buy the shares. That is not necessarily a good or bad thing. It just depends on what your priority is.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e27902d5809db65325baf7bd85b6e4f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"212\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>TSLA Chain (Think or Swim)</span></p><h2>Be aware of your risks and choices</h2><p>Once again, please bear in mind that if your primary interest is in getting premiums, selling puts during down-trending markets may not be the best strategy. If the market blood bath continues, your stock may reach the strike price before you blink. However, if your interest is in acquiring the stock should things fall further, this is a wise strategy. The added income through premium does not hurt either. If you already hold at least 100 shares of Tesla, you may want to consider selling covered call if you understand that strategy. This article explains some basics of it.</p><h2>Conclusion</h2><p>Tesla is a volatile company. TSLA is a volatile stock. Tesla is led by a volatile man. And the market is volatile these days. That makes it a double-double-whammy. In such cases, we tend to prefer lower strike prices. If we do get assigned Tesla at the $200 strike price, we will be glad to hold it for the long term for the reasons mentioned above. But that&#39;s us. What is your opinion of Tesla here? Do you believe it will still be overvalued buying at $200? Please leave your comments and opinions below.</p><p><i>This article is written by Tradevestor for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Agree To Buy At $200, Get Instant 3%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Agree To Buy At $200, Get Instant 3%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-06 16:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544869-tesla-agree-to-buy-at-200-get-instant-3-percent><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryA 10% haircut after losing 36% from highs makes Tesla more attractive.This article explains why $200 is attractive to us.Always be aware of your risks when dealing with options. Play safe....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544869-tesla-agree-to-buy-at-200-get-instant-3-percent\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544869-tesla-agree-to-buy-at-200-get-instant-3-percent","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2273840514","content_text":"SummaryA 10% haircut after losing 36% from highs makes Tesla more attractive.This article explains why $200 is attractive to us.Always be aware of your risks when dealing with options. Play safe.jetcityimageTesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) lost nearly 10% of its stock price recently after deliveries underwhelmed as Seeking Alpha has covered here. These are strange times for the stock market as companies that are worth a Trillion lose in oneday what most companies are not even worth in their lifetime. Keep in mind, Tesla lost nearly 10% on a day the market rebounded. If the recent sentiment prevails on Tesla (as we are betting), then the next few red days for the market will be much harder for Tesla longs. But, with such pain come opportunities for those who can stomach the wild rides.The stock is rebounding a bit in premarket due to the general market mood and the news that Cathy Wood dipped into the sell-off. But we strongly believe the next few days will provide some juicy opportunities for those willing to sell cash-secured puts. Tesla's recent stock split makes these transactions a lot easier for retail investors. Before the recent 3:1 split, selling a single contract for 100 shares would have required three times the capital to be set aside. Let us use the chain below as an example and see how things look now post-split.TSLA Option Chain (Think or Swim)Key data pointsStrike Price: $200Expiration Date: November 4th, 2022, exactly a month from today.Premium: $6/share, for a total of $600.In simple words, the put seller collects $600 immediately to buy 100 shares of Tesla at $200 if the stock reaches $200 or below by November 4th, 2022. Bear in mind that time decay is in favor of the option seller, meaning as days go by, the option values decline.What's the expected return and possible outcomes?Return: The premium collected ($600) for setting aside $20,000 represents a 3% return for a month. This is a handy return anytime and even more so in the current market environment. At this time, the market assigns at 77.20% probability that Tesla remains above $200 by expiration on November 4th. To reiterate the impact of the recent stock split, the same transaction would have required $60,000 to be set aside as we'd have been talking about a $600 strike price. Granted, the premium returns would be higher (in dollar), but it is common sense that more investors can afford $20,000 compared to those who can afford $60,000.Outcome #1: If Tesla stays above $200 by the expiration date, the option seller just retains the premium mentioned above. The option seller will not be obligated to buy the shares.Outcome #2: If Tesla goes below $200 by the expiration date, the option seller will be forced to buy 100 shares at $200, irrespective of where the stock trades at that time. Keeping the premium netted in mind, the average cost, in this case, will be $194 ($200 minus $6).Outcome #3: As an option seller, one can \"buy to close\" anytime instead of waiting till the expiration date. That may be appealing to those who have the time and patience to play short-dated options many times over. But we typically let the option expire before choosing another chain (or another stock).Outcome #4: We will write in detail about this in a future article, but we wanted to mention this as many readers of the Amazon (AMZN) article pointed out. An option seller can always roll into future dated options. That is, instead of getting out of the game entirely by following one of the first three outcomes above, you can close the current option and initiate a new chain with a different strike/expiration/premium combination as a single transaction. There are risks and advantages to this as we plan to describe later.Why $200 Looks attractive?Trend: Apart from being a nice round number, $200 is about 20% below the current market price, a bear market by itself by definition. That is on top of the 36% already lost from highs, making $200 more than 50% off from highs. In our view, that is a compelling enough pullback for a company that still has many growth avenues in front of it.Valuation: At $200, Tesla will be trading at a PEG ratio of less than 1. This is based on a forward multiple of 46 [$200 divided by forward EPS of $4.32] and the five year expected growth rate of 55%. As avid followers of Growth at Reasonable Price [GARP] would attest, a PEG of less than 1 makes a stock more attractive.Technical: From a technical standpoint, $200 has historically offered plenty of support to the stock. As shown in the chart below, the stock has bounced off from $200 level at least five times in the last two years.TSLA Chart (Google Charts)Many ways to skin the catIf the $200 strike price and the 3% premium return don't appeal to you and if you are looking for a higher premium return, consider strike price like the one below. In this example, the options seller agrees to buy 100 shares of Tesla at $220 should the stock reach that by November 4th, while collecting a premium of about $11 per share. That's a much higher return of 5% return in a month, but the risk the seller takes here is that the strike price is just 10% away from the current market price. One more day like yesterday, and you may be obligated to buy the shares. That is not necessarily a good or bad thing. It just depends on what your priority is.TSLA Chain (Think or Swim)Be aware of your risks and choicesOnce again, please bear in mind that if your primary interest is in getting premiums, selling puts during down-trending markets may not be the best strategy. If the market blood bath continues, your stock may reach the strike price before you blink. However, if your interest is in acquiring the stock should things fall further, this is a wise strategy. The added income through premium does not hurt either. If you already hold at least 100 shares of Tesla, you may want to consider selling covered call if you understand that strategy. This article explains some basics of it.ConclusionTesla is a volatile company. TSLA is a volatile stock. Tesla is led by a volatile man. And the market is volatile these days. That makes it a double-double-whammy. In such cases, we tend to prefer lower strike prices. If we do get assigned Tesla at the $200 strike price, we will be glad to hold it for the long term for the reasons mentioned above. But that's us. What is your opinion of Tesla here? Do you believe it will still be overvalued buying at $200? Please leave your comments and opinions below.This article is written by Tradevestor for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1094,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9985253843,"gmtCreate":1667405609582,"gmtModify":1676537912769,"author":{"id":"3578822947991990","authorId":"3578822947991990","name":"Shervin2112","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9e255105b8bd0141a86f13a0ee7b292","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578822947991990","idStr":"3578822947991990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>good luck And happy Halloween","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>good luck And happy Halloween","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$good luck And happy Halloween","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/41a7c71c368ea37931d79cc75e2cd595","width":"1560","height":"1154"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9985253843","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944316767,"gmtCreate":1681701999059,"gmtModify":1681702003837,"author":{"id":"3578822947991990","authorId":"3578822947991990","name":"Shervin2112","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9e255105b8bd0141a86f13a0ee7b292","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578822947991990","idStr":"3578822947991990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"More games like this one and better rewards please[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"More games like this one and better rewards please[开心]&nbsp;","text":"More games like this one and better rewards please[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944316767","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9921824130,"gmtCreate":1671030125320,"gmtModify":1676538478580,"author":{"id":"3578822947991990","authorId":"3578822947991990","name":"Shervin2112","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9e255105b8bd0141a86f13a0ee7b292","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578822947991990","idStr":"3578822947991990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>Down till $130before it goes to the moon!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>Down till $130before it goes to the moon!","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Down till $130before it goes to the moon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9921824130","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2029,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988496209,"gmtCreate":1666806850501,"gmtModify":1676537808989,"author":{"id":"3578822947991990","authorId":"3578822947991990","name":"Shervin2112","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9e255105b8bd0141a86f13a0ee7b292","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578822947991990","idStr":"3578822947991990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a> Hoping for bullish but looking&nbsp;bearish","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a> Hoping for bullish but looking&nbsp;bearish","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ Hoping for bullish but looking bearish","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988496209","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":671,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9983543125,"gmtCreate":1666292081467,"gmtModify":1676537735609,"author":{"id":"3578822947991990","authorId":"3578822947991990","name":"Shervin2112","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9e255105b8bd0141a86f13a0ee7b292","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578822947991990","idStr":"3578822947991990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a>Gonna drop with the poor macro conditions[Cry]&nbsp;. Let hope Nov22 improves. Hang on everyone","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a>Gonna drop with the poor macro conditions[Cry]&nbsp;. Let hope Nov22 improves. Hang on everyone","text":"$S&P 500(.SPX)$Gonna drop with the poor macro conditions[Cry] . Let hope Nov22 improves. Hang on everyone","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9983543125","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":855,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9986948225,"gmtCreate":1666880085567,"gmtModify":1676537822942,"author":{"id":"3578822947991990","authorId":"3578822947991990","name":"Shervin2112","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9e255105b8bd0141a86f13a0ee7b292","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578822947991990","idStr":"3578822947991990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes! This week should be fine.[Happy]&nbsp; But maybe not after FOMC[Cry]&nbsp;","listText":"Yes! This week should be fine.[Happy]&nbsp; But maybe not after FOMC[Cry]&nbsp;","text":"Yes! This week should be fine.[Happy] But maybe not after FOMC[Cry]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986948225","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9983807935,"gmtCreate":1666196489627,"gmtModify":1676537721347,"author":{"id":"3578822947991990","authorId":"3578822947991990","name":"Shervin2112","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9e255105b8bd0141a86f13a0ee7b292","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578822947991990","idStr":"3578822947991990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Cry]&nbsp;","listText":"[Cry]&nbsp;","text":"[Cry]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9983807935","repostId":"1163149585","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163149585","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1666188491,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163149585?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-19 22:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Earnings Are Likely To Bomb Going Forward","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163149585","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryApple is going against astounding year-over-year comps from 2021's free-money/YOLO economy. B","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Apple is going against astounding year-over-year comps from 2021&#39;s free-money/YOLO economy. But as the economy softens, are people really going to go out of their way to upgrade their iPhones?</li><li>2021 was &#34;peak everything&#34; for consumers, with spending on consumer goods like Apple&#39;s products being a key bellwether.</li><li>Apple&#39;s U-turn on its planned iPhone production ramp is a clear early warning signal for earnings to decline, but few investors are listening.</li><li>Apple has also been a prime beneficiary of tax cuts, QE, and stimulus, while the underlying net income of its business looks more sluggish and cyclical.</li><li>While Apple is a decent business, you should not get sucked into paying high PE ratios for popular stocks with earnings at cyclical peaks, or your portfolio will likely suffer the consequences.</li></ul><p>Some buy-and-hold investors may consider this blasphemy, but since late 2019 Apple&#39;s (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock price has grown increasingly disconnected from the reality of its underlying business. Apple&#39;s stock is ground zero for investors that expect stimulus-fueled levels of consumer spending to last forever. In reality, investors are tripping over each other to pay a peak multiple for consumer discretionary stocks like AAPL at peak earnings. This is unlikely to succeed as an investing strategy. To this point, the present valuation of Apple is a gift to investors, who now have the opportunity to sell while the stock is overvalued and allocate money elsewhere.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c74fbc6467060e07ea0d8b8477c0a63f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><h3>The Pandemic Didn&#39;t Fundamentally Change Apple&#39;s Business</h3><p>Of course, Apple is a profitable business. But the beauty of looking at Apple&#39;s income statement is that it can tell you why the company is making more money and whether the share price is increasing faster or slower than the business.</p><p>Apple&#39;s share price shows powerful gains, trading for about 5.9x more than it did 10 years ago.</p><p>EPS is up a lot over the last 10 years (3.8x), but not as much as the share price.</p><p>And EPS, in turn, is up a lot more than net income (2.4x).</p><p>When you subtract out corporate tax cuts and the benefit from lower interest rates, earnings are only 2.1x the levels of 10 years ago.</p><p>Moreover, nearly all of this growth has come recently during the pandemic. From 2012 to 2019, earnings before interest and taxes had only grown about 16%! The rest was all from tax cuts, lower interest rates, stimulus, and Apple&#39;s buyback. Not to discount the wisdom of buybacks in general- it was great when Apple was buying its shares back at like 10x earnings. But recently at 30x earnings? Not so much!</p><p>It&#39;s strange when you think about it, but Apple&#39;s story has been similarly borne out among thousands of companies with the same trend of Market Cap Growth &gt; EPS Growth&gt; Net Income Growth&gt; EBIT Growth. Valuations have risen faster than earnings, which in turn have been juiced by stimulus, falling interest rates, and deficit-financed corporate tax cuts. In the end, investors are getting a lot of sizzle and not much steak.</p><p>If you&#39;re buying Apple here, you really need a compelling reason why Apple&#39;s business has fundamentally improved since 2019. I don&#39;t see one, besides people getting free money from the government. iPhone sales have been higher post-pandemic than previously, but consider that the US government handed out approximately $10,000 per family in stimulus in 2021. That&#39;s tax-free cash in addition to wages 95% of people were making working in 2021, so it was generally pure profit to recipients. In addition, remember that consumers had limited choices for travel, entertainment, and events, which directed spending towards consumer goods like Apple&#39;s.</p><p>But what will happen to consumer spending this holiday season without $10,000 per family in free money and with raging inflation squeezing budgets? A massive miss in profits for consumer discretionary companies is the most likely outcome. Analysts are now slowly starting the process of revising Apple&#39;s earnings estimates down. The danger here is deceptive, as evidenced by the recent earnings misses of Adobe (ADBE), FedEx (FDX), and Restoration Hardware (RH) that reported off-cycle. Traders are excited because banks like Bank of America (BAC) reported higher profits from the Fed&#39;s interest rate hiking campaign. However, as the earnings cycle turns to consumer discretionary and tech there will likely be a bunch of stocks getting routed, with high-profile stocks like Apple and Amazon (AMZN) being likely victims.</p><h3>What To Expect From Apple&#39;s Earnings: Not Sustainable</h3><p>Apple reports quarterly earnings after the market closes on Thursday, October 27th. As always, Apple&#39;s report will be followed by their quarterly earnings call (and posted on Seeking Alpha shortly after). Analysts expect earnings of $1.27 for the quarter. Apple no longer gives earnings guidance- there&#39;s no requirement to do so even though they did so in the past. But this causes investors to get too excited about Apple&#39;s prospects rather than actually looking at the numbers. For investors to expect profits to simply level off with the rug pulled on stimulus is naive. Even before the recent revisions, Wall Street analysts had only projected mid-single-digit EPS growth for Apple over the next few years. That&#39;s not a huge vote of confidence. If you take these estimates at face value, Apple trades for over 22x next fiscal year&#39;s earnings with middling growth prospects. By contrast, the S&amp;P 500 currently trades for about 15.6x analyst earnings estimates and has roughly equal growth prospects. The long-running story for Apple of course has been growth in services revenue, but I expect that to slow dramatically as the amount they can squeeze Google (GOOG) dramatically slows. If Apple can tell TSMC (TSM) no on price increases, then Google can likely do the same for Apple.</p><p>This wouldn&#39;t be so bad except for the likelihood that earnings estimates are wildly inflated due to the massive stimulus in 2021. Once you account for the stimulus, I don&#39;t think there&#39;s much that fundamentally changed for Apple, its products, or its business prospects. In fact, people are likely to delay upgrading iPhones for years since they upgraded en masse in 2021 and early 2022. Apple is oddly out of step with the rest of the industry on this- they recently had to pull a U-turn on a planned 7% ramp in production. We can draw some clues on demand from the broader semiconductor market, with Micron (MU) and Nvidia (NVDA) acknowledging the slowdown in September, with Intel (INTC) announcing weak results and job cuts shortly after. Taiwan Semiconductor announced results a few days ago and warned of weakening demand. There&#39;s also the issue of the strong dollar, which eats away at Apple&#39;s US dollar profits on sales made outside the US. If past cycles are any guide, earnings for mature consumer-centric companies like Apple are likely to fall substantially. Without stimulus, AAPL&#39;s earnings could easily trend back to a bit above its pre-pandemic numbers, pushing the stock below $100 and likely below $75. There are severe, structural problems with the ability of consumers to continue to spend at the rate they are, and consumer discretionary companies are on the frontlines of this change. Raging inflation, lack of stimulus, declines in real earnings, etc., all have a hand in this. And when the hammer eventually drops on student loan forbearance, that&#39;s another 1% or more of the national income sucked back into the U.S. Treasury- equivalent to a fairly broad income tax hike.</p><h3>Mega Cap Tech Valuations: Signal And Noise</h3><p>There&#39;s a classic experiment in statistics where if you put a bunch of people&#39;s guesses together, the highest numbers are likely to be overestimated, while the lowest numbers are likely to be underestimated. For example, if we poll 100 people on how many jellybeans are in a jar or what the margin of victory will be for a candidate in the midterm elections, the highest estimates are likely to be wrong. The high estimates tend to have more noise in them than the ones in the middle. Financial markets aren&#39;t so different. Research shows companies that have the world&#39;s largest market caps tend to subsequently underperform. High P/E ratios combined with high-popularity stocks end up being far more noise than signal and are best avoided.</p><p>Apple is the world&#39;s most valuable company, and it has been this way for a while. But in contrast to my previous research on the disposition effect and Apple stock being worth more than the business as late as 2019, you simply can&#39;t justify the near tripling in price since then. By contrast, you can sell Apple and put your money in a basket of small-cap stocks (IJR) that are trading at similar valuations to 2019. Don&#39;t be fooled by stocks that see huge gains in share price without corresponding growth in the underlying business. History shows that doing this means you&#39;ll be consigned to years of low or negative returns.</p><h3>Bottom Line</h3><p>For a variety of reasons that are unlikely to prove sustainable, Apple has nearly tripled in price since the summer of 2019. Seeking Alpha&#39;s quant model gives the stock an F for valuation and a D+ for growth. This mirrors the lack of enthusiasm for Wall Street analysts on Apple&#39;s growth prospects. AAPL is now among the most overvalued large-cap names. Investors should consider selling and either allocating to Treasury bills that pay 4-4.5% annually, or to small-cap stocks that trade for less than half the valuation of Apple. Do you agree? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Earnings Are Likely To Bomb Going Forward</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Earnings Are Likely To Bomb Going Forward\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-19 22:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4547242-apple-earnings-are-likely-to-bomb-going-forward><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryApple is going against astounding year-over-year comps from 2021's free-money/YOLO economy. But as the economy softens, are people really going to go out of their way to upgrade their iPhones?...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4547242-apple-earnings-are-likely-to-bomb-going-forward\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4547242-apple-earnings-are-likely-to-bomb-going-forward","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163149585","content_text":"SummaryApple is going against astounding year-over-year comps from 2021's free-money/YOLO economy. But as the economy softens, are people really going to go out of their way to upgrade their iPhones?2021 was \"peak everything\" for consumers, with spending on consumer goods like Apple's products being a key bellwether.Apple's U-turn on its planned iPhone production ramp is a clear early warning signal for earnings to decline, but few investors are listening.Apple has also been a prime beneficiary of tax cuts, QE, and stimulus, while the underlying net income of its business looks more sluggish and cyclical.While Apple is a decent business, you should not get sucked into paying high PE ratios for popular stocks with earnings at cyclical peaks, or your portfolio will likely suffer the consequences.Some buy-and-hold investors may consider this blasphemy, but since late 2019 Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock price has grown increasingly disconnected from the reality of its underlying business. Apple's stock is ground zero for investors that expect stimulus-fueled levels of consumer spending to last forever. In reality, investors are tripping over each other to pay a peak multiple for consumer discretionary stocks like AAPL at peak earnings. This is unlikely to succeed as an investing strategy. To this point, the present valuation of Apple is a gift to investors, who now have the opportunity to sell while the stock is overvalued and allocate money elsewhere.Data by YChartsThe Pandemic Didn't Fundamentally Change Apple's BusinessOf course, Apple is a profitable business. But the beauty of looking at Apple's income statement is that it can tell you why the company is making more money and whether the share price is increasing faster or slower than the business.Apple's share price shows powerful gains, trading for about 5.9x more than it did 10 years ago.EPS is up a lot over the last 10 years (3.8x), but not as much as the share price.And EPS, in turn, is up a lot more than net income (2.4x).When you subtract out corporate tax cuts and the benefit from lower interest rates, earnings are only 2.1x the levels of 10 years ago.Moreover, nearly all of this growth has come recently during the pandemic. From 2012 to 2019, earnings before interest and taxes had only grown about 16%! The rest was all from tax cuts, lower interest rates, stimulus, and Apple's buyback. Not to discount the wisdom of buybacks in general- it was great when Apple was buying its shares back at like 10x earnings. But recently at 30x earnings? Not so much!It's strange when you think about it, but Apple's story has been similarly borne out among thousands of companies with the same trend of Market Cap Growth > EPS Growth> Net Income Growth> EBIT Growth. Valuations have risen faster than earnings, which in turn have been juiced by stimulus, falling interest rates, and deficit-financed corporate tax cuts. In the end, investors are getting a lot of sizzle and not much steak.If you're buying Apple here, you really need a compelling reason why Apple's business has fundamentally improved since 2019. I don't see one, besides people getting free money from the government. iPhone sales have been higher post-pandemic than previously, but consider that the US government handed out approximately $10,000 per family in stimulus in 2021. That's tax-free cash in addition to wages 95% of people were making working in 2021, so it was generally pure profit to recipients. In addition, remember that consumers had limited choices for travel, entertainment, and events, which directed spending towards consumer goods like Apple's.But what will happen to consumer spending this holiday season without $10,000 per family in free money and with raging inflation squeezing budgets? A massive miss in profits for consumer discretionary companies is the most likely outcome. Analysts are now slowly starting the process of revising Apple's earnings estimates down. The danger here is deceptive, as evidenced by the recent earnings misses of Adobe (ADBE), FedEx (FDX), and Restoration Hardware (RH) that reported off-cycle. Traders are excited because banks like Bank of America (BAC) reported higher profits from the Fed's interest rate hiking campaign. However, as the earnings cycle turns to consumer discretionary and tech there will likely be a bunch of stocks getting routed, with high-profile stocks like Apple and Amazon (AMZN) being likely victims.What To Expect From Apple's Earnings: Not SustainableApple reports quarterly earnings after the market closes on Thursday, October 27th. As always, Apple's report will be followed by their quarterly earnings call (and posted on Seeking Alpha shortly after). Analysts expect earnings of $1.27 for the quarter. Apple no longer gives earnings guidance- there's no requirement to do so even though they did so in the past. But this causes investors to get too excited about Apple's prospects rather than actually looking at the numbers. For investors to expect profits to simply level off with the rug pulled on stimulus is naive. Even before the recent revisions, Wall Street analysts had only projected mid-single-digit EPS growth for Apple over the next few years. That's not a huge vote of confidence. If you take these estimates at face value, Apple trades for over 22x next fiscal year's earnings with middling growth prospects. By contrast, the S&P 500 currently trades for about 15.6x analyst earnings estimates and has roughly equal growth prospects. The long-running story for Apple of course has been growth in services revenue, but I expect that to slow dramatically as the amount they can squeeze Google (GOOG) dramatically slows. If Apple can tell TSMC (TSM) no on price increases, then Google can likely do the same for Apple.This wouldn't be so bad except for the likelihood that earnings estimates are wildly inflated due to the massive stimulus in 2021. Once you account for the stimulus, I don't think there's much that fundamentally changed for Apple, its products, or its business prospects. In fact, people are likely to delay upgrading iPhones for years since they upgraded en masse in 2021 and early 2022. Apple is oddly out of step with the rest of the industry on this- they recently had to pull a U-turn on a planned 7% ramp in production. We can draw some clues on demand from the broader semiconductor market, with Micron (MU) and Nvidia (NVDA) acknowledging the slowdown in September, with Intel (INTC) announcing weak results and job cuts shortly after. Taiwan Semiconductor announced results a few days ago and warned of weakening demand. There's also the issue of the strong dollar, which eats away at Apple's US dollar profits on sales made outside the US. If past cycles are any guide, earnings for mature consumer-centric companies like Apple are likely to fall substantially. Without stimulus, AAPL's earnings could easily trend back to a bit above its pre-pandemic numbers, pushing the stock below $100 and likely below $75. There are severe, structural problems with the ability of consumers to continue to spend at the rate they are, and consumer discretionary companies are on the frontlines of this change. Raging inflation, lack of stimulus, declines in real earnings, etc., all have a hand in this. And when the hammer eventually drops on student loan forbearance, that's another 1% or more of the national income sucked back into the U.S. Treasury- equivalent to a fairly broad income tax hike.Mega Cap Tech Valuations: Signal And NoiseThere's a classic experiment in statistics where if you put a bunch of people's guesses together, the highest numbers are likely to be overestimated, while the lowest numbers are likely to be underestimated. For example, if we poll 100 people on how many jellybeans are in a jar or what the margin of victory will be for a candidate in the midterm elections, the highest estimates are likely to be wrong. The high estimates tend to have more noise in them than the ones in the middle. Financial markets aren't so different. Research shows companies that have the world's largest market caps tend to subsequently underperform. High P/E ratios combined with high-popularity stocks end up being far more noise than signal and are best avoided.Apple is the world's most valuable company, and it has been this way for a while. But in contrast to my previous research on the disposition effect and Apple stock being worth more than the business as late as 2019, you simply can't justify the near tripling in price since then. By contrast, you can sell Apple and put your money in a basket of small-cap stocks (IJR) that are trading at similar valuations to 2019. Don't be fooled by stocks that see huge gains in share price without corresponding growth in the underlying business. History shows that doing this means you'll be consigned to years of low or negative returns.Bottom LineFor a variety of reasons that are unlikely to prove sustainable, Apple has nearly tripled in price since the summer of 2019. Seeking Alpha's quant model gives the stock an F for valuation and a D+ for growth. This mirrors the lack of enthusiasm for Wall Street analysts on Apple's growth prospects. AAPL is now among the most overvalued large-cap names. Investors should consider selling and either allocating to Treasury bills that pay 4-4.5% annually, or to small-cap stocks that trade for less than half the valuation of Apple. Do you agree? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":784,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9945723859,"gmtCreate":1681603005671,"gmtModify":1681603009266,"author":{"id":"3578822947991990","authorId":"3578822947991990","name":"Shervin2112","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9e255105b8bd0141a86f13a0ee7b292","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578822947991990","idStr":"3578822947991990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good luck everyone🤎💗","listText":"Good luck everyone🤎💗","text":"Good luck everyone🤎💗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9945723859","repostId":"9943960936","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9943960936,"gmtCreate":1679046534725,"gmtModify":1680580626622,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667667103859","idStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"【Game】Easter Egg Hunting with Tiger, Win Disney Shares and USD 120 Voucher","htmlText":"🐰🌷 Hop into the Easter spirit and join our \"Tiger's Egg Hunting\" game! 🎉Stand to win free Disney stocks and a USD 120 cash voucher!🎁🌟Our interactive Easter game is open to Tigers, and it's so easy to play! 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