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Smile31

Smile31

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2024-09-03

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 👍

2023-12-15

2022-07-10

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Behind Abe's assassination, how did the Japanese economy "lose" for three decades?

2022-07-09

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Behind Abe's assassination, how did the Japanese economy "lose" for three decades?

2022-07-08

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2022-07-07

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An article summarizes the important highlights of the minutes of the overnight Fed meeting!

2022-07-06

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Foreign media headlines | Oil prices led the decline, commodities plummeted! Recession fears trigger knock-on effects

2022-07-05

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2022-07-03

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2022-07-02

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Last night and this morning | U.S. stocks got off to a thrilling start in the second half of the year, and most popular Chinese concept stocks rose

2022-07-01

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2022-06-30

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Last night and this morning | The S&P rebounded and failed to linger in a bear market, hitting its largest half-year decline since 1970

2022-06-29

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Last night and this morning | S&P returned to the bear market! Sister Wood shouts that the U.S. recession has arrived

2022-06-28

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Foreign media headlines | Goldman Sachs says U.S. interest rate market underestimates recession risk

2022-06-27

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This week's preview | Powell joins hands with heavy U.S. inflation data PCE is coming

2022-06-26

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Opinion | The historical relationship between recession risk and the bear market in US stocks

2022-06-24

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Last night and this morning | U.S. stocks rebounded thrillingly! Zhonggai is bright, XPeng vehicles rose nearly 8%

2022-06-23

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2022-06-22

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2022-06-21

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@面包财经:【基金觀察】中金基金：近一年10只產品被清算，是否會觸發監管部門“審慎性措施”？

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👍","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>&nbsp; 👍","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345451693904160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2889,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":252066392895768,"gmtCreate":1702573516766,"gmtModify":1702573520803,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/48e59378c27d67b08fd3f833cece68fb","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/252066392895768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071080048,"gmtCreate":1657428902385,"gmtModify":1676536007100,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071080048","repostId":"1172335974","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172335974","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657272279,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172335974?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-08 17:24","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Behind Abe's assassination, how did the Japanese economy \"lose\" for three decades?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172335974","media":"风暴眼工作室","summary":"7月8日，日本前首相安倍晋三遭遇枪击的消息震惊全世界。据央视报道，当地时间8日，日本前首相安倍晋三当天上午在奈良发表演讲时中枪 。据悉，安倍晋三在上救护车时还有意识，目前安倍晋三已经没有生命体征。日元","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On July 8th, the news that former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot shocked the whole world.</p><p>According to CCTV reports, on the 8th local time, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot when he delivered a speech in Nara that morning. It is reported that Shinzo Abe was still conscious when he got on the ambulance. At present, Shinzo Abe has no vital signs.</p><p>The yen exchange rate was also affected. As of 11:30 on July 8, the decline of the US dollar against the yen expanded to 0.47% to 135.37, and the yen appreciated.</p><p>Why did the yen suddenly appreciate after Abe's assassination? Perhaps it has something to do with the \"Abenomics\" promoted during his term of office. After Shinzo Abe took office at the end of 2012, he accelerated the implementation of a series of economic stimulus policies, the most notable of which was the loose monetary policy, and the yen exchange rate began to depreciate at an accelerated pace.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the yen exchange rate has continued to fall more obviously. On June 13th, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar once fell below the 135 yen to 1 US dollar mark, setting a new low in about 24 years. In more than a year since the beginning of 2021, the yen has depreciated significantly by more than 25% relative to the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73ac608c7438fa9083c60e6af1c6dfd9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As a traditional safe-haven currency, it continued to plummet, causing Japanese bonds and yen assets to begin to be sold off sharply.</p><p>While Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated his view that the Bank of Japan must maintain its massive stimulus plan to shore up the fragile economic recovery.</p><p>But for ordinary Japanese, it is still debatable whether the fragile economic recovery needs to be supported by the sharp depreciation of the yen. After all, as a big importer, Japan's energy dependence on foreign countries is as high as 88%, and its food self-sufficiency rate is only 37%. The rise in commodity prices brought about by the depreciation of the yen will directly affect citizens' lives.</p><p>Especially after so many years of substantial easing, since the Japanese economy collapsed in 1990, Japan's average annual GDP growth rate has been less than 1%.</p><p>The real estate has been widened, the price has been widened, but the disposable income of residents has not been widened, and people somewhat lack confidence. After experiencing the \"lost decade\", \"lost twenty years\" and \"lost thirty years\", Japan's lost eyes are going to the time dimension of Atlantis.</p><p>In the fourth decade, will Japan be able to make a comeback?</p><p><b>Abe and his \"Abenomics\"</b></p><p>Although Shinzo Abe resigned as prime minister in August 2020, the sharp depreciation of the yen is closely related to his \"Abenomics\".</p><p>At the end of 2012, Shinzo Abe once again served as the Prime Minister of Japan, and immediately threw out the route of \"fighting for the economy\", which was heated as \"Abenomics\" by the media.</p><p>The so-called \"Abenomics\" is a policy combination to solve Japan's economic problems through experimental monetary policy (QQE for short), proactive fiscal policy and economic structural reform. Including \"three major strategies\":</p><p>First, it proposed the largest quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy in Japanese history, and the central bank purchased 7.5 trillion yen of Treasury Bond every month;</p><p>Second, break through the expansionary fiscal policy of the previous government with a total budget of 70 trillion yen;</p><p>Third, a package of growth strategies including the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPP), deregulation to arouse private investment and promote innovation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79ef0cf1ad82f6f4d2dbd2d9e5cde013\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Abenomics is the latest effort to solve Japan's economic downturn since 1990s. So how effective is the implementation?</p><p>An analysis article of global macro speculation pointed out that Abenomics is a great economic experiment. Japanese financiers and politicians broke stereotypes and used a three-pronged approach of structural adjustment, fiscal and monetary policies to increase Japan's potential economic growth rate and overcome deflation. The first three years of the experiment were quite successful.</p><p>At the same time, the article also pointed out that \"Abenomics\" was bleak from 2016 to 2020. Under the impact of COVID-19 pandemic, some Abenomics goals have been achieved, especially inflation expectations, yen exchange rate, real interest rates and stock prices. However, the potential output growth in the same period is not good, which proves that structural reform is not being promoted effectively.</p><p>Zhang Jifeng, deputy director of the Japanese Institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that Abe's achievements in economic governance are obvious to all, but there are also serious problems. One of the most serious problems is the difficult financial situation, which has never changed.</p><p>Liu Yun, an associate researcher at the Northeast Asia Institute of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, believes that if we only look at Japan's GDP, there will be a misunderstanding that Abenomics is not very successful. But on the whole, the Japanese economy is an upward attitude. For example, wages in Japan have increased and profits of large enterprises have grown well, so the Japanese economic situation has improved.</p><p><b>\"Lost\" began in 1990</b></p><p>The original intention of \"Abenomics\" is to save Japan's persistently sluggish economy. The \"lost decade\" was first put forward when the Japanese stock market bubble burst in 1990.</p><p>More than ten years before the bursting of the bubble that devastated Japan, Japan was once a \"miracle-making country\".</p><p>From the early labor-intensive enterprises such as cotton textile, they began to accumulate capital, and then took manufacturing as the core industry, actively expanded investment, introduced foreign advanced technology, and quickly rebuilt the domestic industrial system from the ruins after the war.</p><p>By 1964, the Tokyo Olympic Games became an important symbol of Japan's economic development and transformation. Due to the demand for steel for large-scale infrastructure construction and the demand for color TVs at the opening of the Olympic Games, Japan's steel and electromechanical industries flourished, and Japan experienced a complete \"The development stage from exchanging shirts for planes\" to \"Made in Japan\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0a4f35b86afc5382004806076b2487\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 1965, Japan's steel exports to the United States accounted for half of the total imports of the United States. In 1968, Japan became the world's second largest economy after the United States.</p><p>At the same time, Japan has firmly grasped the new generation of industrial revolution. Automobiles, steel, telecommunications, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals have comprehensively dominated the US market, and Hitachi, NEC, Fujitsu, Mitsubishi and Toshiba have joined forces.</p><p>In the consecutive trade deficits of the United States with Japan that year, the industrial giants suffered losses year after year, and Intel was even on the verge of bankruptcy.</p><p>Under the dilemma of being beaten by Japanese goods, the United States launched a trade war that Chinese people now look familiar-</p><p>Since 1981, Japanese cars sold all over the world have been heavily taxed by the United States, and their export quotas have been restricted.</p><p>At the same time, the United States imposed 100% tariffs on Japanese high-tech products such as computers and televisions on the grounds of \"dumping behavior\" by Japan. Japanese semiconductors were set a lower export price limit, and Japanese chips were subject to 100% punitive tariffs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2325f7d267568d30d4ad4c0f6022d74e\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>U.S. lawmakers smash Japanese products live</p><p>In addition, the executives of Japanese enterprises were arrested in the name of \"industrial espionage\". Japan was accused by the United States of being a \"currency manipulator\" and stealing intellectual property rights from the United States, and was asked to increase the import of American agricultural products, cancel the trade terms unfavorable to foreign companies, let Japan impose voluntary export restrictions in textiles, steel, television and machine tools, and at the same time carry out factory transfer and industrial upgrading...</p><p>While constantly accusing Japan of supporting industrial policies through the state, the United States introduced a new trade law in 1988, activating the \"Super 301\" clause-openly legislating to interfere with Japan's industrial and trade policies, forcing Japan to carry out institutional reforms.</p><p>In 1989, Japan and the United States began negotiations on the \"Japan-US Structural Agreement\", and negotiated on economic policies, systems and corporate behaviors, which prompted Japan to carry out open reforms in circulation system and business practices: for example, taking housing as a strategic industry and further opening up the circulation system; Further open up the domestic market and reorganize the import and export system in accordance with the principle of free trade.</p><p>By 1989, the U.S. Trade Representative had initiated a total of 24 Section 301 investigations against Japan, almost all of which were made concessions by the Japanese government.</p><p>At the same time, due to the \"Plaza Accord\" reached by the United States, Japan, the Federal Republic of Germany, France and the United Kingdom in 1985, the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar was forced to appreciate sharply. After \"Black Monday\" in October 1987, the yen appreciated to 120 yen/dollar, with an increase of 90% in 1988.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ab4dd9acfe04f8aab569cb046a73ff\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Plaza agreement signing site</p><p>The sharp appreciation of the yen has dealt a devastating blow to Japan, which is mainly an export-oriented economy. Production costs have risen sharply, and high-quality enterprises have begun to flee overseas. In order to cope with the exchange rate crisis, the Japanese government has begun to cut interest rates sharply, hoping to \"send money\" so that enterprises can invest and set up factories at low cost.</p><p>But in fact, due to the long industrial return cycle, a large amount of yen lent at low interest rate has not been invested in the real economy, and the abundant liquidity of the money market has begun to flow into the housing market, stock market and luxury goods market with the \"strength\" of the yen's sharp appreciation after the Plaza Accord.</p><p>Since 1986, Japan's rapidly expanding economic prosperity has been called the \"Heisei Boom\". At the end of 1985, the Nikkei 225 stock price index closed at 13,083 points and at the end of 1989, it closed at 38,916 points. In four years, the Nikkei 225 index rose by 197.45%, and the total market value of stocks continued to expand to 896 trillion yen, accounting for 60% of Japan's gross national product that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5d38582a2e3123322a61e5b005f13f\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Japanese streets in the 1980s</p><p>The land price in Tokyo is soaring, and the land price of the Tokyo Imperial Palace of the Japanese Emperor exceeds the land valuation of the whole France; A 10,000 yen note in the Ginza area is thrown on the ground, and you can't buy the small piece of land it covers.</p><p>At the same time, the Japanese have become the world's largest consumers of luxury goods. They have swept watch shops, jewelry stores and wine houses all over the world. Foreign banks and securities companies have counted their money in the Japanese market.</p><p>After a large number of short-selling options on stock indexes that completely deviate from economic reality, the bubble broke out when it expanded to the extreme.</p><p>In October 1990, Japan's five-year bull market ended, and the stock market plummeted by 63.24%, creating the largest decline in the history of the Japanese stock market. The following year, the property market plummeted by 65%, bankrupt enterprises emerged in an endless stream, the number of unemployed people surged, and the wealth of the whole country shrank by nearly 50%.</p><p>At the same time, the short-term sharp recession has caused countless ordinary people who have no time to get out to be \"stuck\" by various capital investment targets, and a major economic reshuffle has allowed the wealth of the whole society to be transferred to the hands of a few winners.</p><p>Since then, the Japanese economy has been in a downturn for a long time.</p><p>The Nikkei Average Index went from a historical high of 38,957 on December 29, 1989 to a low of 6,994.9 on October 29, 2008, with a cumulative decline of more than 82%. In the next four years, the Nikkei Average Index still hovered around 10,000 points.</p><p>That is to say, since the late 1990s, the \"lost decade\" of Japanese economy has been reported in newspapers, and the problem has not been solved so far.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ced67142e550e77f5f84c394cba59c8d\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What exactly has Japan lost in 30 years?</b></p><p>In 2010, as the Japanese economy still did not improve, the media began to put forward the \"lost twenty years\" of the Japanese economy.</p><p>In fact, \"twenty years\" is still not the end of Japan's economic downturn. Counting from the highest closing point in the history of the Nikkei 225 Index at 38,957, it has been falling all the way since then, falling to less than 10,000 points many times during this period, and it did not stop falling until 2017.</p><p>At the close of trading on July 7, 2022, the Nikkei 225 Index closed at 26,490.53 points, still more than 10,000 points away from its highest point.</p><p>The \"Plaza Accord\", which caused the yen to appreciate sharply, is considered by many people to be the root cause of the Great Depression caused by Japan's bubble economy.</p><p>However, in the analysis of this Great Depression, the criticism of the Plaza Accord is not consistent. Former Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Finance of Japan, Toyo Tian, even personally refuted this view.</p><p>Because from 1985 to 1990, with overseas investment under the strong yen, Japan's overseas net assets rose from more than 1 trillion US dollars to more than 3 trillion US dollars, that is, the so-called \"there is another Japan besides Japan\"--</p><p>The 300% appreciation of the yen in 10 years is accompanied by a huge increase in production costs and labor costs. In order to maintain their competitiveness, a large number of Japanese companies have to look overseas, which makes Japanese companies' capital flow out rapidly.</p><p>The rapidly appreciating yen and the increasingly anxious Japan-US trade war have also boosted this outflow-the strong yen is convenient for Japanese companies to invest and acquire overseas companies, while building factories abroad can bypass the US sanctions on \"Made in Japan\".</p><p>From 1985 to 1990, Japanese companies carried out a total of 21 huge overseas mergers and acquisitions worth more than 50 billion yen.</p><p>In 1989, Rockefeller Center bought by Mitsubishi for $1.4 billion, Universal Pictures bought by Panasonic for $6 billion, and Columbia Pictures bought by Sony for $3.4 billion-including the copyright of Spider-Man that Marvel Comics has not been able to recover now;</p><p>The Japanese are even ambitious to buy the United States as \"Japan's forty-first county\". Why does the city look so like Tokyo from the 70th floor of the InterContinental Los Angeles Hotel?</p><p>Because the Japanese bought half of the real estate here back then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6420f38680bf983f828177b00418e180\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Japanese scholar Ito Gan wrote in Anger Across the Pacific that some Japanese people believe that Japan will become the next \"superpower\" and the government will lead the people to \"end the American era\".</p><p>It's just that these real estates belong to giant enterprises, consortia, speculators and wealthy foreign businessmen, but they don't belong to the Japanese people alone.</p><p>In 2020, \"Sankei Shimbun\" reported that the revenue of Japanese overseas local legal persons has increased by 220% in the past 20 years. According to OECD statistics, Japan's per capita purchasing power level in 2020 is only US $39,000, an increase of only US $39,000 from 1990. 4%.</p><p><b>1. Thirty years of unmoved income</b></p><p>After 1900, Japan's investment activities came to an abrupt end.</p><p>Banks go bankrupt, factories go bankrupt, mortgage disasters, and banks full of non-performing assets have to merge and reorganize; The sharply rising production costs have caused a large number of enterprises to close down, and the worst thing is ordinary people-they have been laid off in the tide of bankruptcies, their lifelong savings have volatilized in the bubble crisis, and they have to bear heavy mortgages.</p><p>However, after the collapse of the lifelong employment system and the merit sequence, they worked overtime in order to keep their jobs. Although the \"social animal\" culture was not born in Japan's bubble crisis, it has been solidified since then-accepting competition and the supremacy of production efficiency. The squeezing of gears on themselves has become the most helpless choice for Japanese migrant workers.</p><p>However, the torrent of social development pushed the Japanese forward, but it failed to give them the due reward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11648f82b27132391bb1a6cef2c3432a\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In February 2021, the \"Diligence Statistics Survey\" released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan showed that Japan's per capita monthly salary in 2020 was 318,299 yen, or about 19,600 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, the largest decrease in 12 years.</p><p>This figure was about 350,000 yuan in 1990, when the average annual income of Japanese people was 4.25 million yen. Based on the exchange rate at that time, the monthly salary was about 11,600 yuan.</p><p>The average annual income of \"standing still\" for 30 consecutive years has become the most violent \"contraceptive pill\" in Japan.</p><p><b>2. Irreversible aging</b></p><p>In 2020, Japan's total population ranked 11th in the world, falling out of the top ten for the first time since 1950. From 1974 to 2020, Japan's birth rate dropped from 1.86% to 0.67%, and it began to fall into negative population growth for 13 consecutive years around 2008.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's elderly population aged 65 and above reached 36.4 million, accounting for 29.1% of the total population.</p><p>The declining birthrate and aging have caused Japan to fall into a serious shortage of labor supply and slow down in labor productivity growth, thus causing the economic growth to continue to slow down:</p><p>\"From 1961 to 2020, Japan's working-age population growth rate, labor productivity growth rate and economic trend basically changed synchronously. From 1961 to 1975, the average growth rate of Japan's working-age population remained at a high level of 1.6%, and the growth rate of labor productivity reached a peak of 8.4%. The average growth rate of real GDP also remained at a high level of 7.7%; From 1976 to 1988, the working-age population and labor productivity maintained a low growth rate of 0.9% and 3.7% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate also dropped to 4.4%; From 1989 to 2020, the growth rates of working-age population and labor productivity dropped sharply from 0.9% and 4.4% to-0.8% and 1.1% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate dropped from 5.4% to-4.4%. \"</p><p>With the decline of the labor force and the decrease of tax revenue, the expenses such as pensions that need to be spent are rapidly expanding. Since 1990, the number of people living on pensions has been five times that of taxpayers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c92a0dfa8f71abcdb41b554124294a7\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 2004, Japan launched the pension reform, increasing the tax revenue by 0.354% every year. By 2017, the pension paid by taxpayers had accounted for 18.3% of their annual income, which became a heavy burden for the Japanese people.</p><p>The ranking of Japan's Human Development Index (which measures per capita GDP, education, and medical care) dropped from the first place in the world in 1990 to the 19th place in the world in 2020.</p><p>At the same time, Japanese young people have a negative attitude towards life, low material desire and lack of motivation for struggle due to the decline in expected income, resulting in \"hikikomori\". According to the definition of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan, hikikomori are people who stay at home for more than 6 months and almost cut off contact with the outside world. According to the data of the Survey on Living Conditions of the Cabinet Office of Japan, there are 541,000 hikikomori aged 15-39 and 40-64, respectively.</p><p>The consumption and house purchase demand of the elderly are far lower than those of young people, and young people seriously lack consumption desire, which makes it difficult to significantly increase total consumption. Japan has fallen into a \"low desire society\".</p><p><b>3. Lifelong QE, but always weak</b></p><p>In 2021, Japan's total GDP of 4,937.4 billion US dollars will fall from the \"5 prefix\", but it is still an economic power that stands out from Europe and ranks as the third largest economy in the world. It doesn't seem to be bad.</p><p>But in fact, Japan's GDP reached 5.55 trillion US dollars in 1995. At that time, the ratio of Japan's GDP to the GDP of the United States was 71.34%. In 2021, this ratio became 21.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0823be1f503a8cdff0d86e9ba57b90cf\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compared with the glory of the past, today's Japan is indeed somewhat embarrassed.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's macro leverage ratio also leads the world. According to the latest data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), at the end of the second quarter of 2021, the macro leverage ratios of various countries were 286.2% in the United States, 284.3% in the Eurozone, and 416.5% in Japan.</p><p>The huge debt scale comes from decades of Japanese quantitative easing.</p><p>Quantitative easing is a Japanese innovation in the field of finance.</p><p>In 1998, the Bank of Japan began to implement the policy of zero interest rate and quantitative easing for the first time, that is, to regulate economic activities by controlling the currency supply.</p><p>In 2013, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda launched a monetary policy stimulus plan to boost inflation.</p><p>Since 2013, the yen has continued to depreciate against the US dollar, and exports have achieved a substantial increase; At the same time, the Japanese benchmark interest rate has been falling all the way, and the ten-year Treasury Bond interest rate even dropped to a negative number in 2016.</p><p>At the same time, the Bank of Japan began to purchase ETFs (exchange-traded funds) on a large scale, with an average annual ETF purchase scale close to 4 trillion yen. By 2021, the Bank of Japan's stocks will account for more than 80% of stock ETFs, accounting for more than 80% of the total market value of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.</p><p>Although the Nikkei 225 index has strengthened all the way from around 8,000 points in 2012, and even broke through the 30,000-point mark in February 2021, this still seems to be a mirror-like bubble boom because of the huge amount injected by the Bank of Japan. The base currency has neither raised inflation nor driven economic growth.</p><p>In terms of economic structure, except for core basic raw materials, Japan still maintains its barrier advantage, and almost all other industries are hesitating. The markets of automobiles, shipbuilding, machine tools, and electronics industries are all being divided up by the United States, China, South Korea and other countries, and there are few achievements in emerging industries.</p><p>At present, the number of Japanese unicorn companies is only 6, which lags far behind the 554, 180, 64, 43, and 26 in the United States, China, India, Britain, and Germany, and their valuations are all less than US $2 billion.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's debt has expanded rapidly. As of the end of December 2021, Japan's national debt, composed of Treasury Bond, borrowings and short-term government securities, reached 1,218.4 trillion yen, and the per capita debt of Japanese citizens was approximately 9.71 million yen, or approximately RMB 534573 yuan.</p><p>However, at a time when central banks in the United States, Britain, and Europe have begun to tighten their pace, the Bank of Japan has not changed its loose monetary policy.</p><p><b>\"Against the market\" easing, unlimited money printing, yen falling streak</b></p><p>The yen's losing streak began in March.</p><p>After the Federal Reserve's rate hike landed in March and released signals that it would increase rate hike and accelerate shrinking balance sheet in the future, both Britain and Europe began to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy, but the Bank of Japan did the opposite and insisted on maintaining quantitative easing policy.</p><p>On March 28th, the Bank of Japan issued a press release announcing that it would launch a \"continuous designated price market operation\" measure to curb the rise of interest rates from March 29th to 31st, that is, to purchase public bonds from private financial institutions in unlimited amounts at designated interest rates.</p><p>On the same day, the yen exchange rate plunged 1.38%.</p><p>On April 20th, less than a month later, the Bank of Japan announced an unlimited purchase of 10-year Treasury Bond to defend the 0.25% yield ceiling of 10-year Japanese Treasury Bond, which once again pushed the depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Some experts believe that since the depreciation of the yen is beneficial to Japan's export-oriented economy, the Bank of Japan has always regarded the loose monetary environment as an important means to boost market expectations, especially when it has just entered the new fiscal year, it is even more difficult for the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy.</p><p>But can easing save Japan's economy?</p><p>In fact, Japan's trade structure is unstable. Since the Abe government came to power and introduced the unlimited stimulus policy, the total export volume has declined continuously from 2012 to 2015, and only maintained a trade surplus in 2016 and 2017.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2490580bd25519041d5aef1bb5c3c0\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Recently, global crude oil and raw material prices have soared, and the depreciation of the yen has raised the costs of Japanese companies and broadened the channels for imported inflation. At the same time, according to the \"Value-added Trade Statistics\" released by the OECD, the added value created in Japan has dropped from 94% in 1995 to 83% in 2018, a decrease of 11%. Japan's related high value-added products and services have It is increasingly difficult to offset its rising production costs.</p><p>The only beneficiary is Japanese local speculators. With the sharp landing of the Federal Reserve, U.S. bond yields continue to soar, and the spread between U.S. and Japanese Treasury Bond has become wider and wider, so local speculators have begun to short-sell Japanese yen on a large scale., borrowing yen to buy arbitrage of U.S. bonds.</p><p>What about ordinary people?</p><p>Rising prices have led to rising living costs and weakened consumption power, and the \"lost thirty years\" seems to be postponed again-the depreciation of the yen, which was recognized as \"beneficial to the economy\" by the Bank of Japan, has never effectively boosted Japan's economic growth for many years, but has prevented the Japanese economy from escaping from the large-scale financial easing policy for more than ten years.</p><p>Thirty years ago, then central bank governor Mie Yasu warned the government that a country must not survive by blowing economic bubbles, otherwise it will be a great harm to the country.</p><p>So shortly after he took office, Japan implemented a tightening monetary policy, greatly raised the loan interest rate and actively punctured the bubble. This hard landing plunged Japan into decades of depression, but it was often regarded by later generations as the decisive decision of \"a strong man breaking his wrist\".</p><p>It's just that the car in front has been overturned, and the car in front is unknown.</p><p>Thirty years later, Japan seems to be still the same Japan.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1639703443321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind Abe's assassination, how did the Japanese economy \"lose\" for three decades?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind Abe's assassination, how did the Japanese economy \"lose\" for three decades?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">风暴眼工作室</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-08 17:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On July 8th, the news that former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot shocked the whole world.</p><p>According to CCTV reports, on the 8th local time, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot when he delivered a speech in Nara that morning. It is reported that Shinzo Abe was still conscious when he got on the ambulance. At present, Shinzo Abe has no vital signs.</p><p>The yen exchange rate was also affected. As of 11:30 on July 8, the decline of the US dollar against the yen expanded to 0.47% to 135.37, and the yen appreciated.</p><p>Why did the yen suddenly appreciate after Abe's assassination? Perhaps it has something to do with the \"Abenomics\" promoted during his term of office. After Shinzo Abe took office at the end of 2012, he accelerated the implementation of a series of economic stimulus policies, the most notable of which was the loose monetary policy, and the yen exchange rate began to depreciate at an accelerated pace.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the yen exchange rate has continued to fall more obviously. On June 13th, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar once fell below the 135 yen to 1 US dollar mark, setting a new low in about 24 years. In more than a year since the beginning of 2021, the yen has depreciated significantly by more than 25% relative to the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73ac608c7438fa9083c60e6af1c6dfd9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As a traditional safe-haven currency, it continued to plummet, causing Japanese bonds and yen assets to begin to be sold off sharply.</p><p>While Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated his view that the Bank of Japan must maintain its massive stimulus plan to shore up the fragile economic recovery.</p><p>But for ordinary Japanese, it is still debatable whether the fragile economic recovery needs to be supported by the sharp depreciation of the yen. After all, as a big importer, Japan's energy dependence on foreign countries is as high as 88%, and its food self-sufficiency rate is only 37%. The rise in commodity prices brought about by the depreciation of the yen will directly affect citizens' lives.</p><p>Especially after so many years of substantial easing, since the Japanese economy collapsed in 1990, Japan's average annual GDP growth rate has been less than 1%.</p><p>The real estate has been widened, the price has been widened, but the disposable income of residents has not been widened, and people somewhat lack confidence. After experiencing the \"lost decade\", \"lost twenty years\" and \"lost thirty years\", Japan's lost eyes are going to the time dimension of Atlantis.</p><p>In the fourth decade, will Japan be able to make a comeback?</p><p><b>Abe and his \"Abenomics\"</b></p><p>Although Shinzo Abe resigned as prime minister in August 2020, the sharp depreciation of the yen is closely related to his \"Abenomics\".</p><p>At the end of 2012, Shinzo Abe once again served as the Prime Minister of Japan, and immediately threw out the route of \"fighting for the economy\", which was heated as \"Abenomics\" by the media.</p><p>The so-called \"Abenomics\" is a policy combination to solve Japan's economic problems through experimental monetary policy (QQE for short), proactive fiscal policy and economic structural reform. Including \"three major strategies\":</p><p>First, it proposed the largest quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy in Japanese history, and the central bank purchased 7.5 trillion yen of Treasury Bond every month;</p><p>Second, break through the expansionary fiscal policy of the previous government with a total budget of 70 trillion yen;</p><p>Third, a package of growth strategies including the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPP), deregulation to arouse private investment and promote innovation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79ef0cf1ad82f6f4d2dbd2d9e5cde013\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Abenomics is the latest effort to solve Japan's economic downturn since 1990s. So how effective is the implementation?</p><p>An analysis article of global macro speculation pointed out that Abenomics is a great economic experiment. Japanese financiers and politicians broke stereotypes and used a three-pronged approach of structural adjustment, fiscal and monetary policies to increase Japan's potential economic growth rate and overcome deflation. The first three years of the experiment were quite successful.</p><p>At the same time, the article also pointed out that \"Abenomics\" was bleak from 2016 to 2020. Under the impact of COVID-19 pandemic, some Abenomics goals have been achieved, especially inflation expectations, yen exchange rate, real interest rates and stock prices. However, the potential output growth in the same period is not good, which proves that structural reform is not being promoted effectively.</p><p>Zhang Jifeng, deputy director of the Japanese Institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that Abe's achievements in economic governance are obvious to all, but there are also serious problems. One of the most serious problems is the difficult financial situation, which has never changed.</p><p>Liu Yun, an associate researcher at the Northeast Asia Institute of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, believes that if we only look at Japan's GDP, there will be a misunderstanding that Abenomics is not very successful. But on the whole, the Japanese economy is an upward attitude. For example, wages in Japan have increased and profits of large enterprises have grown well, so the Japanese economic situation has improved.</p><p><b>\"Lost\" began in 1990</b></p><p>The original intention of \"Abenomics\" is to save Japan's persistently sluggish economy. The \"lost decade\" was first put forward when the Japanese stock market bubble burst in 1990.</p><p>More than ten years before the bursting of the bubble that devastated Japan, Japan was once a \"miracle-making country\".</p><p>From the early labor-intensive enterprises such as cotton textile, they began to accumulate capital, and then took manufacturing as the core industry, actively expanded investment, introduced foreign advanced technology, and quickly rebuilt the domestic industrial system from the ruins after the war.</p><p>By 1964, the Tokyo Olympic Games became an important symbol of Japan's economic development and transformation. Due to the demand for steel for large-scale infrastructure construction and the demand for color TVs at the opening of the Olympic Games, Japan's steel and electromechanical industries flourished, and Japan experienced a complete \"The development stage from exchanging shirts for planes\" to \"Made in Japan\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0a4f35b86afc5382004806076b2487\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 1965, Japan's steel exports to the United States accounted for half of the total imports of the United States. In 1968, Japan became the world's second largest economy after the United States.</p><p>At the same time, Japan has firmly grasped the new generation of industrial revolution. Automobiles, steel, telecommunications, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals have comprehensively dominated the US market, and Hitachi, NEC, Fujitsu, Mitsubishi and Toshiba have joined forces.</p><p>In the consecutive trade deficits of the United States with Japan that year, the industrial giants suffered losses year after year, and Intel was even on the verge of bankruptcy.</p><p>Under the dilemma of being beaten by Japanese goods, the United States launched a trade war that Chinese people now look familiar-</p><p>Since 1981, Japanese cars sold all over the world have been heavily taxed by the United States, and their export quotas have been restricted.</p><p>At the same time, the United States imposed 100% tariffs on Japanese high-tech products such as computers and televisions on the grounds of \"dumping behavior\" by Japan. Japanese semiconductors were set a lower export price limit, and Japanese chips were subject to 100% punitive tariffs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2325f7d267568d30d4ad4c0f6022d74e\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>U.S. lawmakers smash Japanese products live</p><p>In addition, the executives of Japanese enterprises were arrested in the name of \"industrial espionage\". Japan was accused by the United States of being a \"currency manipulator\" and stealing intellectual property rights from the United States, and was asked to increase the import of American agricultural products, cancel the trade terms unfavorable to foreign companies, let Japan impose voluntary export restrictions in textiles, steel, television and machine tools, and at the same time carry out factory transfer and industrial upgrading...</p><p>While constantly accusing Japan of supporting industrial policies through the state, the United States introduced a new trade law in 1988, activating the \"Super 301\" clause-openly legislating to interfere with Japan's industrial and trade policies, forcing Japan to carry out institutional reforms.</p><p>In 1989, Japan and the United States began negotiations on the \"Japan-US Structural Agreement\", and negotiated on economic policies, systems and corporate behaviors, which prompted Japan to carry out open reforms in circulation system and business practices: for example, taking housing as a strategic industry and further opening up the circulation system; Further open up the domestic market and reorganize the import and export system in accordance with the principle of free trade.</p><p>By 1989, the U.S. Trade Representative had initiated a total of 24 Section 301 investigations against Japan, almost all of which were made concessions by the Japanese government.</p><p>At the same time, due to the \"Plaza Accord\" reached by the United States, Japan, the Federal Republic of Germany, France and the United Kingdom in 1985, the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar was forced to appreciate sharply. After \"Black Monday\" in October 1987, the yen appreciated to 120 yen/dollar, with an increase of 90% in 1988.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ab4dd9acfe04f8aab569cb046a73ff\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Plaza agreement signing site</p><p>The sharp appreciation of the yen has dealt a devastating blow to Japan, which is mainly an export-oriented economy. Production costs have risen sharply, and high-quality enterprises have begun to flee overseas. In order to cope with the exchange rate crisis, the Japanese government has begun to cut interest rates sharply, hoping to \"send money\" so that enterprises can invest and set up factories at low cost.</p><p>But in fact, due to the long industrial return cycle, a large amount of yen lent at low interest rate has not been invested in the real economy, and the abundant liquidity of the money market has begun to flow into the housing market, stock market and luxury goods market with the \"strength\" of the yen's sharp appreciation after the Plaza Accord.</p><p>Since 1986, Japan's rapidly expanding economic prosperity has been called the \"Heisei Boom\". At the end of 1985, the Nikkei 225 stock price index closed at 13,083 points and at the end of 1989, it closed at 38,916 points. In four years, the Nikkei 225 index rose by 197.45%, and the total market value of stocks continued to expand to 896 trillion yen, accounting for 60% of Japan's gross national product that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5d38582a2e3123322a61e5b005f13f\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Japanese streets in the 1980s</p><p>The land price in Tokyo is soaring, and the land price of the Tokyo Imperial Palace of the Japanese Emperor exceeds the land valuation of the whole France; A 10,000 yen note in the Ginza area is thrown on the ground, and you can't buy the small piece of land it covers.</p><p>At the same time, the Japanese have become the world's largest consumers of luxury goods. They have swept watch shops, jewelry stores and wine houses all over the world. Foreign banks and securities companies have counted their money in the Japanese market.</p><p>After a large number of short-selling options on stock indexes that completely deviate from economic reality, the bubble broke out when it expanded to the extreme.</p><p>In October 1990, Japan's five-year bull market ended, and the stock market plummeted by 63.24%, creating the largest decline in the history of the Japanese stock market. The following year, the property market plummeted by 65%, bankrupt enterprises emerged in an endless stream, the number of unemployed people surged, and the wealth of the whole country shrank by nearly 50%.</p><p>At the same time, the short-term sharp recession has caused countless ordinary people who have no time to get out to be \"stuck\" by various capital investment targets, and a major economic reshuffle has allowed the wealth of the whole society to be transferred to the hands of a few winners.</p><p>Since then, the Japanese economy has been in a downturn for a long time.</p><p>The Nikkei Average Index went from a historical high of 38,957 on December 29, 1989 to a low of 6,994.9 on October 29, 2008, with a cumulative decline of more than 82%. In the next four years, the Nikkei Average Index still hovered around 10,000 points.</p><p>That is to say, since the late 1990s, the \"lost decade\" of Japanese economy has been reported in newspapers, and the problem has not been solved so far.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ced67142e550e77f5f84c394cba59c8d\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What exactly has Japan lost in 30 years?</b></p><p>In 2010, as the Japanese economy still did not improve, the media began to put forward the \"lost twenty years\" of the Japanese economy.</p><p>In fact, \"twenty years\" is still not the end of Japan's economic downturn. Counting from the highest closing point in the history of the Nikkei 225 Index at 38,957, it has been falling all the way since then, falling to less than 10,000 points many times during this period, and it did not stop falling until 2017.</p><p>At the close of trading on July 7, 2022, the Nikkei 225 Index closed at 26,490.53 points, still more than 10,000 points away from its highest point.</p><p>The \"Plaza Accord\", which caused the yen to appreciate sharply, is considered by many people to be the root cause of the Great Depression caused by Japan's bubble economy.</p><p>However, in the analysis of this Great Depression, the criticism of the Plaza Accord is not consistent. Former Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Finance of Japan, Toyo Tian, even personally refuted this view.</p><p>Because from 1985 to 1990, with overseas investment under the strong yen, Japan's overseas net assets rose from more than 1 trillion US dollars to more than 3 trillion US dollars, that is, the so-called \"there is another Japan besides Japan\"--</p><p>The 300% appreciation of the yen in 10 years is accompanied by a huge increase in production costs and labor costs. In order to maintain their competitiveness, a large number of Japanese companies have to look overseas, which makes Japanese companies' capital flow out rapidly.</p><p>The rapidly appreciating yen and the increasingly anxious Japan-US trade war have also boosted this outflow-the strong yen is convenient for Japanese companies to invest and acquire overseas companies, while building factories abroad can bypass the US sanctions on \"Made in Japan\".</p><p>From 1985 to 1990, Japanese companies carried out a total of 21 huge overseas mergers and acquisitions worth more than 50 billion yen.</p><p>In 1989, Rockefeller Center bought by Mitsubishi for $1.4 billion, Universal Pictures bought by Panasonic for $6 billion, and Columbia Pictures bought by Sony for $3.4 billion-including the copyright of Spider-Man that Marvel Comics has not been able to recover now;</p><p>The Japanese are even ambitious to buy the United States as \"Japan's forty-first county\". Why does the city look so like Tokyo from the 70th floor of the InterContinental Los Angeles Hotel?</p><p>Because the Japanese bought half of the real estate here back then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6420f38680bf983f828177b00418e180\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Japanese scholar Ito Gan wrote in Anger Across the Pacific that some Japanese people believe that Japan will become the next \"superpower\" and the government will lead the people to \"end the American era\".</p><p>It's just that these real estates belong to giant enterprises, consortia, speculators and wealthy foreign businessmen, but they don't belong to the Japanese people alone.</p><p>In 2020, \"Sankei Shimbun\" reported that the revenue of Japanese overseas local legal persons has increased by 220% in the past 20 years. According to OECD statistics, Japan's per capita purchasing power level in 2020 is only US $39,000, an increase of only US $39,000 from 1990. 4%.</p><p><b>1. Thirty years of unmoved income</b></p><p>After 1900, Japan's investment activities came to an abrupt end.</p><p>Banks go bankrupt, factories go bankrupt, mortgage disasters, and banks full of non-performing assets have to merge and reorganize; The sharply rising production costs have caused a large number of enterprises to close down, and the worst thing is ordinary people-they have been laid off in the tide of bankruptcies, their lifelong savings have volatilized in the bubble crisis, and they have to bear heavy mortgages.</p><p>However, after the collapse of the lifelong employment system and the merit sequence, they worked overtime in order to keep their jobs. Although the \"social animal\" culture was not born in Japan's bubble crisis, it has been solidified since then-accepting competition and the supremacy of production efficiency. The squeezing of gears on themselves has become the most helpless choice for Japanese migrant workers.</p><p>However, the torrent of social development pushed the Japanese forward, but it failed to give them the due reward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11648f82b27132391bb1a6cef2c3432a\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In February 2021, the \"Diligence Statistics Survey\" released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan showed that Japan's per capita monthly salary in 2020 was 318,299 yen, or about 19,600 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, the largest decrease in 12 years.</p><p>This figure was about 350,000 yuan in 1990, when the average annual income of Japanese people was 4.25 million yen. Based on the exchange rate at that time, the monthly salary was about 11,600 yuan.</p><p>The average annual income of \"standing still\" for 30 consecutive years has become the most violent \"contraceptive pill\" in Japan.</p><p><b>2. Irreversible aging</b></p><p>In 2020, Japan's total population ranked 11th in the world, falling out of the top ten for the first time since 1950. From 1974 to 2020, Japan's birth rate dropped from 1.86% to 0.67%, and it began to fall into negative population growth for 13 consecutive years around 2008.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's elderly population aged 65 and above reached 36.4 million, accounting for 29.1% of the total population.</p><p>The declining birthrate and aging have caused Japan to fall into a serious shortage of labor supply and slow down in labor productivity growth, thus causing the economic growth to continue to slow down:</p><p>\"From 1961 to 2020, Japan's working-age population growth rate, labor productivity growth rate and economic trend basically changed synchronously. From 1961 to 1975, the average growth rate of Japan's working-age population remained at a high level of 1.6%, and the growth rate of labor productivity reached a peak of 8.4%. The average growth rate of real GDP also remained at a high level of 7.7%; From 1976 to 1988, the working-age population and labor productivity maintained a low growth rate of 0.9% and 3.7% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate also dropped to 4.4%; From 1989 to 2020, the growth rates of working-age population and labor productivity dropped sharply from 0.9% and 4.4% to-0.8% and 1.1% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate dropped from 5.4% to-4.4%. \"</p><p>With the decline of the labor force and the decrease of tax revenue, the expenses such as pensions that need to be spent are rapidly expanding. Since 1990, the number of people living on pensions has been five times that of taxpayers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c92a0dfa8f71abcdb41b554124294a7\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 2004, Japan launched the pension reform, increasing the tax revenue by 0.354% every year. By 2017, the pension paid by taxpayers had accounted for 18.3% of their annual income, which became a heavy burden for the Japanese people.</p><p>The ranking of Japan's Human Development Index (which measures per capita GDP, education, and medical care) dropped from the first place in the world in 1990 to the 19th place in the world in 2020.</p><p>At the same time, Japanese young people have a negative attitude towards life, low material desire and lack of motivation for struggle due to the decline in expected income, resulting in \"hikikomori\". According to the definition of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan, hikikomori are people who stay at home for more than 6 months and almost cut off contact with the outside world. According to the data of the Survey on Living Conditions of the Cabinet Office of Japan, there are 541,000 hikikomori aged 15-39 and 40-64, respectively.</p><p>The consumption and house purchase demand of the elderly are far lower than those of young people, and young people seriously lack consumption desire, which makes it difficult to significantly increase total consumption. Japan has fallen into a \"low desire society\".</p><p><b>3. Lifelong QE, but always weak</b></p><p>In 2021, Japan's total GDP of 4,937.4 billion US dollars will fall from the \"5 prefix\", but it is still an economic power that stands out from Europe and ranks as the third largest economy in the world. It doesn't seem to be bad.</p><p>But in fact, Japan's GDP reached 5.55 trillion US dollars in 1995. At that time, the ratio of Japan's GDP to the GDP of the United States was 71.34%. In 2021, this ratio became 21.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0823be1f503a8cdff0d86e9ba57b90cf\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compared with the glory of the past, today's Japan is indeed somewhat embarrassed.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's macro leverage ratio also leads the world. According to the latest data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), at the end of the second quarter of 2021, the macro leverage ratios of various countries were 286.2% in the United States, 284.3% in the Eurozone, and 416.5% in Japan.</p><p>The huge debt scale comes from decades of Japanese quantitative easing.</p><p>Quantitative easing is a Japanese innovation in the field of finance.</p><p>In 1998, the Bank of Japan began to implement the policy of zero interest rate and quantitative easing for the first time, that is, to regulate economic activities by controlling the currency supply.</p><p>In 2013, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda launched a monetary policy stimulus plan to boost inflation.</p><p>Since 2013, the yen has continued to depreciate against the US dollar, and exports have achieved a substantial increase; At the same time, the Japanese benchmark interest rate has been falling all the way, and the ten-year Treasury Bond interest rate even dropped to a negative number in 2016.</p><p>At the same time, the Bank of Japan began to purchase ETFs (exchange-traded funds) on a large scale, with an average annual ETF purchase scale close to 4 trillion yen. By 2021, the Bank of Japan's stocks will account for more than 80% of stock ETFs, accounting for more than 80% of the total market value of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.</p><p>Although the Nikkei 225 index has strengthened all the way from around 8,000 points in 2012, and even broke through the 30,000-point mark in February 2021, this still seems to be a mirror-like bubble boom because of the huge amount injected by the Bank of Japan. The base currency has neither raised inflation nor driven economic growth.</p><p>In terms of economic structure, except for core basic raw materials, Japan still maintains its barrier advantage, and almost all other industries are hesitating. The markets of automobiles, shipbuilding, machine tools, and electronics industries are all being divided up by the United States, China, South Korea and other countries, and there are few achievements in emerging industries.</p><p>At present, the number of Japanese unicorn companies is only 6, which lags far behind the 554, 180, 64, 43, and 26 in the United States, China, India, Britain, and Germany, and their valuations are all less than US $2 billion.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's debt has expanded rapidly. As of the end of December 2021, Japan's national debt, composed of Treasury Bond, borrowings and short-term government securities, reached 1,218.4 trillion yen, and the per capita debt of Japanese citizens was approximately 9.71 million yen, or approximately RMB 534573 yuan.</p><p>However, at a time when central banks in the United States, Britain, and Europe have begun to tighten their pace, the Bank of Japan has not changed its loose monetary policy.</p><p><b>\"Against the market\" easing, unlimited money printing, yen falling streak</b></p><p>The yen's losing streak began in March.</p><p>After the Federal Reserve's rate hike landed in March and released signals that it would increase rate hike and accelerate shrinking balance sheet in the future, both Britain and Europe began to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy, but the Bank of Japan did the opposite and insisted on maintaining quantitative easing policy.</p><p>On March 28th, the Bank of Japan issued a press release announcing that it would launch a \"continuous designated price market operation\" measure to curb the rise of interest rates from March 29th to 31st, that is, to purchase public bonds from private financial institutions in unlimited amounts at designated interest rates.</p><p>On the same day, the yen exchange rate plunged 1.38%.</p><p>On April 20th, less than a month later, the Bank of Japan announced an unlimited purchase of 10-year Treasury Bond to defend the 0.25% yield ceiling of 10-year Japanese Treasury Bond, which once again pushed the depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Some experts believe that since the depreciation of the yen is beneficial to Japan's export-oriented economy, the Bank of Japan has always regarded the loose monetary environment as an important means to boost market expectations, especially when it has just entered the new fiscal year, it is even more difficult for the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy.</p><p>But can easing save Japan's economy?</p><p>In fact, Japan's trade structure is unstable. Since the Abe government came to power and introduced the unlimited stimulus policy, the total export volume has declined continuously from 2012 to 2015, and only maintained a trade surplus in 2016 and 2017.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2490580bd25519041d5aef1bb5c3c0\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Recently, global crude oil and raw material prices have soared, and the depreciation of the yen has raised the costs of Japanese companies and broadened the channels for imported inflation. At the same time, according to the \"Value-added Trade Statistics\" released by the OECD, the added value created in Japan has dropped from 94% in 1995 to 83% in 2018, a decrease of 11%. Japan's related high value-added products and services have It is increasingly difficult to offset its rising production costs.</p><p>The only beneficiary is Japanese local speculators. With the sharp landing of the Federal Reserve, U.S. bond yields continue to soar, and the spread between U.S. and Japanese Treasury Bond has become wider and wider, so local speculators have begun to short-sell Japanese yen on a large scale., borrowing yen to buy arbitrage of U.S. bonds.</p><p>What about ordinary people?</p><p>Rising prices have led to rising living costs and weakened consumption power, and the \"lost thirty years\" seems to be postponed again-the depreciation of the yen, which was recognized as \"beneficial to the economy\" by the Bank of Japan, has never effectively boosted Japan's economic growth for many years, but has prevented the Japanese economy from escaping from the large-scale financial easing policy for more than ten years.</p><p>Thirty years ago, then central bank governor Mie Yasu warned the government that a country must not survive by blowing economic bubbles, otherwise it will be a great harm to the country.</p><p>So shortly after he took office, Japan implemented a tightening monetary policy, greatly raised the loan interest rate and actively punctured the bubble. This hard landing plunged Japan into decades of depression, but it was often regarded by later generations as the decisive decision of \"a strong man breaking his wrist\".</p><p>It's just that the car in front has been overturned, and the car in front is unknown.</p><p>Thirty years later, Japan seems to be still the same Japan.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vyE5FKltsfEpcN7v5P6r4w\">风暴眼工作室</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab6491f7a764c5c5f68017952b8c2931","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vyE5FKltsfEpcN7v5P6r4w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172335974","content_text":"7月8日，日本前首相安倍晋三遭遇枪击的消息震惊全世界。据央视报道，当地时间8日，日本前首相安倍晋三当天上午在奈良发表演讲时中枪 。据悉，安倍晋三在上救护车时还有意识，目前安倍晋三已经没有生命体征。日元汇率也受到了影响，截至7月8日11：30，美元兑日元跌幅扩大至0.47%，报135.37，日元有所升值。安倍遇刺，日元为何会突然升值？或许与其任期内力主推动的“安倍经济学”有关。安倍晋三2012年底上台后加速实施的一系列刺激经济政策，最值得注目的就是宽松货币政策，日元汇率开始加速贬值。今年以来，日元汇率持续下跌态势更加明显。6月13日，日元兑美元汇率一度跌破135日元兑换1美元关口，创下约24年的新低。而从2021年初至今的一年多时间内，日元相对美元已经大幅贬值超过25%。作为传统避险货币持续大跌，让日债和日元资产开始被大幅抛售。虽然日本央行行长黑田东彦重申了他的观点，即日本央行必须维持其大规模刺激计划，以支撑脆弱的经济复苏。但对于普通日本人，脆弱的经济复苏是否需要用日元的大幅贬值来支撑还是值得商榷，毕竟日本作为一个进口大国，能源对外依存度高达88%，粮食自给率仅有37%。日元贬值带来的大宗商品价格抬升，将直接影响市民的生活。尤其是大幅宽松了这么多年，可从1990年日本经济崩溃以来，日本平均年GDP增长率不足1%。宽高了房产、宽起了物价，独独没有宽起来居民的可支配收入，人们多少缺乏点信心。在已经经历了“失落的十年”、\"失落的二十年\"、“失落的三十年”之后，日本的失落眼看着要奔向亚特兰蒂斯的那个时间维度去了。第四个十年，日本又是否能绝地翻盘呢？安倍和他的“安倍经济学”虽然安倍晋三在2020年8月就已经辞任首相，但日元如今的大幅贬值却和他的“安倍经济学”联系紧密。2012年底，安倍晋三再次担任日本首相，随即抛出“拼经济”路线，被媒体热炒为“安倍经济学”。所谓“安倍经济学”，是通过实验性质的货币政策(简称QQE)、积极财政政策和经济结构改革来解决日本经济问题的政策组合。包括“三大策略”：其一，提出日本史上最大规模的量化宽松（QE）货币政策，央行每月购买国债7.5万亿日元；其二，突破前任政府预算总额70万亿日元的扩张性财政政策；其三，囊括《跨太平洋战略经济伙伴协定》（TPP）、放松管制以唤起民间投资和促进创新等在内的一揽子增长战略。安倍经济学是为了解决1990年代以后日本经济不断低迷而做出的最新努力。那么实施效果如何呢？全球宏观投机的一篇分析文章指出，安倍经济学是一个伟大的经济实验，日本金融家和政治家打破成见，用结构调整、财政和货币政策三管齐下的方法提升日本潜在经济增长率，克服通货紧缩。实验的前三年，获得了相当成功。文章同时也指出，“安倍经济学”2016到2020年则表现暗淡。新冠疫情冲击下部分安倍经济学的目标得以实现，尤其是通胀预期、日元汇率、真实利率和股票价格等，但是同期的潜在产出成长并不佳，证明了结构改革推进不力。中国社会科学院日本研究所副所长张季风认为，安倍在经济治理上的成绩大家有目共睹，但是也有较为严重的问题。其中最严重的问题就是财政状况困难，这个局面始终没有得到改变。中国现代国际关系研究院东北亚研究所副研究员刘云认为，若仅从日本GDP来看，会有所误解，认为安倍经济学不太成功。但如果从整体上看，日本经济是一个向上的姿态，例如日本的工资有增加、大企业利润增速不错，所以日本经济形势是有所好转的。“失落”始于1990“安倍经济学”的初衷是为了挽救日本持续低迷的经济。而“失落的十年”最早被提出，则是1990年日本股市泡沫破灭。在这场让日本一蹶不振的泡沫大破灭之前的十数年，日本曾是“缔造奇迹的国家”。从早期的棉纺织等劳动密集型企业开始积累资本，再到后来以制造业为核心产业，积极扩大投资、引进国外先进技术，从战后的废墟里迅速重建起本国的工业体系。到1964年，东京奥运会更是成为衔接日本经济发展转型的重要标志，由于大规模基建对钢铁的需求以及奥运会开幕对彩电的需求，日本的钢铁、机电行业蓬勃发展，日本经历了一个完整的“用衬衫换飞机”到“日本制造”的发展阶段。1965年，日本输出美国的钢铁占到了美国进口总量一半，1968年，日本成为了仅次美国的世界第二大经济体。与此同时，日本牢牢抓住了新一代的产业革命，汽车、钢铁、电信、半导体、制药全面制霸美国市场，日立、NEC、富士通、三菱和东芝群雄并起。而美国在当年对日的连年贸易赤字中，产业巨头们一片连年亏损，英特尔甚至一度濒临倒闭。在被日货打得找不着北的窘境之下，美国不顾脸面地发起了一场国人如今看起来很眼熟的贸易战——从1981年开始，行销全球的日系汽车开始被美国课以重税，并且在出口额度上被加以限制。同时，美国以日方“存在倾销行为”为由对日本的电脑、电视等高科技产品征收100%的关税，日本的半导体被设置出口价格下限、日本的芯片被征收100%惩罚性关税。美国议员直播砸碎日本产品此外，日系企业的高管被以“产业间谍罪”为名拘捕，日本被美国指责为“汇率操纵国”、从美国窃取知识产权，并被要求加大对美国农产品的进口力度、取消对外企不利的贸易条款、让日本在纺织品、钢铁、电视和机床等行业都实行自愿出口限制，同时进行工厂转移和产业升级……在不断指责日本通过国家扶持产业政策的同时，美国却在1988年出台新的贸易法，启用“超级301”条款——公然立法干预日本的产业与贸易政策，迫使日本进行制度性改革。1989年日美开始“日美结构协议”谈判，就经济政策、制度及企业行为等进行磋商，促使日本在流通体制、商业惯例等方面进行开放性改革：例如把住房作为战略性产业，进一步开放流通体制；进一步开放国内市场，按照自由贸易的原则重组进出口体制。截至1989年，美国贸易代表总计向日本发起了24例301条款案件调查，几乎全部由日本政府做出了让步。同时，由于1985年美国、日本、联邦德国、法国和英国达成的“广场协议”，日元兑美元汇率被迫大幅升值。1987年10月的“黑色星期一”之后，日元升值到120日元/美元，1988年度升幅高达90%。广场协议签订现场大幅升值的日元对以出口型经济为主的日本造成了毁灭性的打击，生产成本急剧上涨、优质企业开始逃向海外，为了应对汇率危机，日本政府开始大幅降息，寄希望于“发钱”让企业可以低成本去投资办厂。可实际上，由于实业回报周期过长，低利率贷出大量的日元并没有被投入到到实体经济，货币市场的充裕流动性，随着日元在广场协议后大幅升值的“强势”开始大量流入房市、股市以及奢侈品市场。1986 年开始，日本飞速膨胀的经济繁荣被称为“平成景气”，1985年末日经225股价指数收于13083点， 1989年末收于38916点，四年间日经225指数累计上涨197.45%，并且股票总市值继续膨胀至896万亿日元，占日本当年国民生产总值的60%。80年代的日本街头东京的地价则是坐地飞升，日本天皇的东京皇居土地价格就超过了整个法国的土地估价；银座地区一张1万日元的纸币扔在地上，也买不到它所覆盖的那一小片土地。同时，日本人成了全球最大的奢侈品消费国，他们横扫全球的手表店、珠宝店以及红酒酒庄，外资银行与证券公司在日本市场数钱数到手软。与经济现实完全背离的大批股指沽空期权之后，是泡沫膨胀到极致时爆发。1990年10月，日本长达5年的牛市结束，股市暴跌63.24%，创造了日本股市历史上最大的下跌幅度。次年，楼市暴跌65%，破产企业层出不穷，失业人群人数激增，整个国家财富缩水了近50%。同时，短期的大幅衰退让无数来不及抽身的普通人被各项资本投资标的物“套牢”，一场经济大洗牌让全社会的财富被转移至少数赢家手中。此后，日本经济开始长期处于低迷状态。日经平均指数由1989年12月29日历史高位38957，到2008年10月29日最低6994.9，累积跌幅逾82%，其后4年日经平均指数仍然始终徘徊在10,000点左右。也就是从90年代末开始，日本经济“失去的十年””开始不断见诸报端，并至今难题未解。三十年里，日本具体失去了什么？2010年，由于日本经济仍无起色，媒体开始提出日本经济“失去的二十年”。实际上，“二十年”依旧不是日本经济颓靡的终点。自38957的日经225指数历史最高收盘点位开始算起，此后一路下行，期间多次跌至1万点一下，直至2017年才止跌。2022年7月7日收盘，日经225指数收盘报26490.53点，距其最高点仍有一万多点的差距。那个让日元急剧升值的“广场协议”，被许多人认为是日本泡沫经济引发大萧条的根源。但对于这次大萧条的分析中，对于广场协议的批判并不是一致的。原日本大藏省副相行天丰雄甚至亲自出面驳斥过这一观点。因为在1985年~1990年，借强势日元下的海外投资，日本海外净资产从1万多亿美元上升到3万多亿美元，也就是所谓的“日本之外，还有一个日本”——日元10年升值300%的同时，是生产成本与人力成本的巨幅抬升。为了保持自己的竞争力，大量日企不得不将目光投向海外，这使得日企资本急速外流。升值迅速的日元与日渐焦灼的日美贸易战也助推了这一外流——强势的日元方便日企投资收购海外企业，同时在外建厂可以绕开美国对“日本制造”的制裁。从1985年到1990年，日本企业总共进行了21起500亿日元以上的巨型海外并购案。1989年，三菱公司14亿美元买下的洛克菲勒中心、松下60亿美元买下的美国环球影业、索尼公司以34亿美元买下哥伦比亚影片公司——其中包括漫威如今都没能收回的蜘蛛侠版权；日本人甚至雄心壮志地要将美国买成“日本的第四十一个县”，为什么从洛杉矶洲际酒店70楼看去的城市那么像东京？因为当年日本人买下了这里一半的地产。日本学者伊藤感在《横跨太平洋的愤怒》中写到，一些日本人相信日本会成为下一个\"超级大国\"，政府会带领民众\"终结美国的时代\"。只是这些地产，属于巨企、属于财团、属于投机者、属于外籍富商，但独独不属于日本的人民。2020年《产经新闻》报道，日本海外当地法人的营收在近20年内增长了220%，而按照OECD的统计数据，日本2020年的人均购买力水平仅为3.9万美元，比1990年仅增长了4%。1、三十年不动的收入1900年以后，日本的投资活动戛然而止。银行破产、工厂倒闭、房贷成灾，充斥着不良资产的银行不得不合并重组；剧烈抬升的生产成本让企业大批倒闭，最惨的还是普通人——在倒闭潮中被裁员、一辈子的积蓄在泡沫危机中挥发、还要背上沉重的房贷。而在终身雇佣制和年功序列崩解后，为了保住工作而拼命加班，“社畜”文化虽然不诞生于日本的泡沫危机，但却在这之后得到了固化——接受竞争和生产效率至上的齿轮对自己的压榨，成了日本打工人最无奈的选择。但社会发展的洪流推进着日本人前进，却没能给他们应有的回报。2021年2月，日本厚生劳动省发布的“勤劳统计调查”显示，日本2020年的人均月薪为31万8299日元，约合1.96万元人民币，同比减少1.2%，创下12年以来最大降幅。而这一数字在1990年时是35万元左右，当时的日本人平均年收入是425万日元，以当时的汇率计算，月薪约合1.16万人民币。连续30年“原地踏步”的平均年收入，成了日本最猛烈的“避孕药”。2、难以逆转的老龄化2020年，日本总人口居世界11位，是1950年以来首次跌出前十。从1974到2020年，日本出生率由1.86%降至0.67%，在2008年左右开始陷入连续13年的人口负增长。同时，日本65岁及以上老年人口达3640万，在总人口中所占比例达29.1%。少子老龄化，导致日本陷入严重的劳动力供给不足、劳动生产率增速趋缓，进而使经济增速持续放缓：“1961-2020年日本劳动年龄人口增速、劳动生产率增速与经济走势基本同步变化。伴随1961-1975年日本劳动年龄人口平均增速维持在1.6%的高位、劳动生产率增速达到8.4%峰值，实际GDP平均增速也维持在7.7%的高位；1976-1988年劳动年龄人口、劳动生产率分别维持0.9%、3.7%的低速增长，实际GDP增速也降至4.4%；1989-2020年劳动年龄人口、劳动生产率增速分别从0.9%、4.4%大幅降至-0.8%、1.1%，实际GDP增速从5.4%降至-4.4%。”在劳动人口下降，税收不断减少的情况下，需要支出的养老金等费用却在急速扩大，自1990年起，依附养老金生活的人数已经是纳税人的5倍。2004年日本启动了养老金改革，每年以0.354%的涨幅提高税收，到2017年纳税人缴纳的养老金已占到个人年收入的18.3%，成了日本民众沉重的负担。日本人类发展指数的排名（测量人均GDP，教育，以及医疗），则从1990年的世界第一掉落至2020年的世界第十九。同时，日本年轻人因预期收入下降而形成的生活态度消极、物质欲望低下、缺乏奋斗动力的风气，由此产生“蛰居族”。根据日本厚生劳动省定义，蛰居族为持续6个月以上待在家里不出门，几乎和外界断绝联系的人群，根据日本内阁府《生活状况相关调查》数据，15-39岁、40-64岁人口蛰居族分别达54.1、61.3万人。老年人的消费和购房需求远低于年轻人，年轻人又严重缺乏消费欲望，使得总消费难以大幅提升，日本陷入“低欲望社会”。3、终身QE，却始终乏力2021年，日本以49374亿美元的GDP总量跌下“5字头”，但依旧是傲视欧洲，名列世界第三大经济体的经济大国，看起来似乎并不差。但实际上，日本1995年GDP就已经达到了5.55万亿美元，当时日本GDP与美国GDP的比率是71.34%，2021年，这个比率变成了21.46%。与过往的辉煌相比，如今的日本确实有些困窘。同时，日本的宏观杠杆率也在全球领先。国际清算银行（BIS）最新数据显示，2021 年二季度末，各国宏观杠杆率中美国为286.2%、欧元区为284.3%，而日本为416.5%。庞大的债务规模来源于日本数十年的量化宽松。量化宽松，是日本在融领域的一个创新。1998年，日本央行本央行第一次开始实行零利率和量化宽松政策，即通过对通货供应量的控制来调节经济活动。2013年，日本央行行长黑田东彦推出提振通胀的货币政策刺激计划。从2013年开始，日元兑美元持续贬值，出口实现了较大幅度增长；同时日本基准利率一路下行，十年期国债利率在2016年甚至下降至负数。同时日本央行开始大规模购入ETF(交易所交易基金)，年均ETF购买规模接近4万亿日元，到2021年，日本央行持有股票占股票ETF的80%以上，占东京证券交易所总市值的5%以上。虽然日经225指数从2012年的八千点附近，一路走强，在2021年2月甚至突破了三万点大关，但这似乎仍然是一场镜花水月的泡沫化繁荣，因为日本央行注入的巨量基础货币既没有拉高通胀率，也没有拉动经济增长。经济结构上，日本除核心基础原材料依然保持壁垒优势，其他产业几乎都在裹足不前。汽车、造船、机床、电子产业的市场都在被美、中、韩等国瓜分，新兴产业上更是少有建树。目前日本独角兽企业数量仅6家，大幅落后于美、中、印、英、德、的554、180、64、43、26家，且估值均小于20亿美元。同时，日本的债务急剧扩张，截至2021年12月底，由国债、借款及政府短期证券构成的日本国家债务达到1218.4万亿日元，日本国民人均负债约为971万日元，约合人民币53万4573元。但在美、英、欧等央行均已开始紧缩步伐的当下，日本央行却仍旧未改变宽松的货币政策。“逆市”宽松、无限量印钞、日元连跌日元的连跌始于3月份。在3月美联储加息落地，并释放后续将加大加息幅度和加快缩表的信号后，英、欧均开始加速收紧货币政策，但日本央行却反其道而行之，坚持维持量化宽松政策。3 月 28 日，日本央行发布新闻稿宣布，将在3月 29-31 日间，发动抑制利率上升的“连续性指定价格市场操作”措施，即以指定的利率，无限量从民间金融机构手中收购公债。当天，日元汇率重挫1.38％。4月20日，不到一个月的时间内日本央行又宣布无限量购买10年期国债，以捍卫10年期日本国债0.25%的收益率上限，再度推动了日元的贬值。有专家认为，由于日元贬值有利于日本以出口为导向的经济，日本央行一直将宽松的货币环境作为提振市场预期的重要手段，尤其是在刚刚进入新财年的当下，日本央行更难有可能收紧货币政策。但宽松能挽救日本经济吗？实际上，日本贸易结构并不稳定，自安倍政府上台推出无限刺激政策后，出口总额在2012~2015年连续下降，仅2016、2017年两年保持了贸易顺差状态。近期全球原油和原材料价格飙升，日元贬值更是抬高了日本企业的成本，拓宽了输入型通胀的渠道。同时，根据OECD发布的“附加值贸易统计”数据显示，日本国内创造的附加值已经从1995年的94％降至2018年的83％，降低了11％，日本相关高附加值产品和服务已经越来越难抵消其不断提升的生产成本。唯一得益的，是日本本土的投机者们，随着美联储大幅落地，美债收益率持续飙涨，美日国债利差已经越来越大，于是本土的投机者们开始大规模沽空日元，借日元买美债的套利。对于老百姓来说呢？物价提升导致生活成本上升、消费力削弱，“失落的三十年”似乎又要延期——被日本央行认定“有利于经济”的日元贬值，多年来从未有效提振过日本的经济增长，反而让日本经济十数年来无法从大规模金融缓和政策中脱出。三十年前，时任央行行长三重野康告诫政府：一个国家绝对不能靠吹经济泡沫生存，否则将是国家的大害。于是在他上台不久后日本就实行了紧缩性的货币政策，大幅度提高了贷款利率，主动刺破泡沫。这场硬着陆让日本陷入了数十年的萧条，却也常被后人视为“壮士断腕”的果决。只是前车已覆，后未知更。三十年过去，日本似乎还是那个日本。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2991,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9073694117,"gmtCreate":1657331975039,"gmtModify":1676535992757,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9073694117","repostId":"1172335974","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172335974","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657272279,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172335974?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-08 17:24","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Behind Abe's assassination, how did the Japanese economy \"lose\" for three decades?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172335974","media":"风暴眼工作室","summary":"7月8日，日本前首相安倍晋三遭遇枪击的消息震惊全世界。据央视报道，当地时间8日，日本前首相安倍晋三当天上午在奈良发表演讲时中枪 。据悉，安倍晋三在上救护车时还有意识，目前安倍晋三已经没有生命体征。日元","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On July 8th, the news that former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot shocked the whole world.</p><p>According to CCTV reports, on the 8th local time, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot when he delivered a speech in Nara that morning. It is reported that Shinzo Abe was still conscious when he got on the ambulance. At present, Shinzo Abe has no vital signs.</p><p>The yen exchange rate was also affected. As of 11:30 on July 8, the decline of the US dollar against the yen expanded to 0.47% to 135.37, and the yen appreciated.</p><p>Why did the yen suddenly appreciate after Abe's assassination? Perhaps it has something to do with the \"Abenomics\" promoted during his term of office. After Shinzo Abe took office at the end of 2012, he accelerated the implementation of a series of economic stimulus policies, the most notable of which was the loose monetary policy, and the yen exchange rate began to depreciate at an accelerated pace.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the yen exchange rate has continued to fall more obviously. On June 13th, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar once fell below the 135 yen to 1 US dollar mark, setting a new low in about 24 years. In more than a year since the beginning of 2021, the yen has depreciated significantly by more than 25% relative to the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73ac608c7438fa9083c60e6af1c6dfd9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As a traditional safe-haven currency, it continued to plummet, causing Japanese bonds and yen assets to begin to be sold off sharply.</p><p>While Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated his view that the Bank of Japan must maintain its massive stimulus plan to shore up the fragile economic recovery.</p><p>But for ordinary Japanese, it is still debatable whether the fragile economic recovery needs to be supported by the sharp depreciation of the yen. After all, as a big importer, Japan's energy dependence on foreign countries is as high as 88%, and its food self-sufficiency rate is only 37%. The rise in commodity prices brought about by the depreciation of the yen will directly affect citizens' lives.</p><p>Especially after so many years of substantial easing, since the Japanese economy collapsed in 1990, Japan's average annual GDP growth rate has been less than 1%.</p><p>The real estate has been widened, the price has been widened, but the disposable income of residents has not been widened, and people somewhat lack confidence. After experiencing the \"lost decade\", \"lost twenty years\" and \"lost thirty years\", Japan's lost eyes are going to the time dimension of Atlantis.</p><p>In the fourth decade, will Japan be able to make a comeback?</p><p><b>Abe and his \"Abenomics\"</b></p><p>Although Shinzo Abe resigned as prime minister in August 2020, the sharp depreciation of the yen is closely related to his \"Abenomics\".</p><p>At the end of 2012, Shinzo Abe once again served as the Prime Minister of Japan, and immediately threw out the route of \"fighting for the economy\", which was heated as \"Abenomics\" by the media.</p><p>The so-called \"Abenomics\" is a policy combination to solve Japan's economic problems through experimental monetary policy (QQE for short), proactive fiscal policy and economic structural reform. Including \"three major strategies\":</p><p>First, it proposed the largest quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy in Japanese history, and the central bank purchased 7.5 trillion yen of Treasury Bond every month;</p><p>Second, break through the expansionary fiscal policy of the previous government with a total budget of 70 trillion yen;</p><p>Third, a package of growth strategies including the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPP), deregulation to arouse private investment and promote innovation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79ef0cf1ad82f6f4d2dbd2d9e5cde013\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Abenomics is the latest effort to solve Japan's economic downturn since 1990s. So how effective is the implementation?</p><p>An analysis article of global macro speculation pointed out that Abenomics is a great economic experiment. Japanese financiers and politicians broke stereotypes and used a three-pronged approach of structural adjustment, fiscal and monetary policies to increase Japan's potential economic growth rate and overcome deflation. The first three years of the experiment were quite successful.</p><p>At the same time, the article also pointed out that \"Abenomics\" was bleak from 2016 to 2020. Under the impact of COVID-19 pandemic, some Abenomics goals have been achieved, especially inflation expectations, yen exchange rate, real interest rates and stock prices. However, the potential output growth in the same period is not good, which proves that structural reform is not being promoted effectively.</p><p>Zhang Jifeng, deputy director of the Japanese Institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that Abe's achievements in economic governance are obvious to all, but there are also serious problems. One of the most serious problems is the difficult financial situation, which has never changed.</p><p>Liu Yun, an associate researcher at the Northeast Asia Institute of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, believes that if we only look at Japan's GDP, there will be a misunderstanding that Abenomics is not very successful. But on the whole, the Japanese economy is an upward attitude. For example, wages in Japan have increased and profits of large enterprises have grown well, so the Japanese economic situation has improved.</p><p><b>\"Lost\" began in 1990</b></p><p>The original intention of \"Abenomics\" is to save Japan's persistently sluggish economy. The \"lost decade\" was first put forward when the Japanese stock market bubble burst in 1990.</p><p>More than ten years before the bursting of the bubble that devastated Japan, Japan was once a \"miracle-making country\".</p><p>From the early labor-intensive enterprises such as cotton textile, they began to accumulate capital, and then took manufacturing as the core industry, actively expanded investment, introduced foreign advanced technology, and quickly rebuilt the domestic industrial system from the ruins after the war.</p><p>By 1964, the Tokyo Olympic Games became an important symbol of Japan's economic development and transformation. Due to the demand for steel for large-scale infrastructure construction and the demand for color TVs at the opening of the Olympic Games, Japan's steel and electromechanical industries flourished, and Japan experienced a complete \"The development stage from exchanging shirts for planes\" to \"Made in Japan\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0a4f35b86afc5382004806076b2487\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 1965, Japan's steel exports to the United States accounted for half of the total imports of the United States. In 1968, Japan became the world's second largest economy after the United States.</p><p>At the same time, Japan has firmly grasped the new generation of industrial revolution. Automobiles, steel, telecommunications, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals have comprehensively dominated the US market, and Hitachi, NEC, Fujitsu, Mitsubishi and Toshiba have joined forces.</p><p>In the consecutive trade deficits of the United States with Japan that year, the industrial giants suffered losses year after year, and Intel was even on the verge of bankruptcy.</p><p>Under the dilemma of being beaten by Japanese goods, the United States launched a trade war that Chinese people now look familiar-</p><p>Since 1981, Japanese cars sold all over the world have been heavily taxed by the United States, and their export quotas have been restricted.</p><p>At the same time, the United States imposed 100% tariffs on Japanese high-tech products such as computers and televisions on the grounds of \"dumping behavior\" by Japan. Japanese semiconductors were set a lower export price limit, and Japanese chips were subject to 100% punitive tariffs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2325f7d267568d30d4ad4c0f6022d74e\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>U.S. lawmakers smash Japanese products live</p><p>In addition, the executives of Japanese enterprises were arrested in the name of \"industrial espionage\". Japan was accused by the United States of being a \"currency manipulator\" and stealing intellectual property rights from the United States, and was asked to increase the import of American agricultural products, cancel the trade terms unfavorable to foreign companies, let Japan impose voluntary export restrictions in textiles, steel, television and machine tools, and at the same time carry out factory transfer and industrial upgrading...</p><p>While constantly accusing Japan of supporting industrial policies through the state, the United States introduced a new trade law in 1988, activating the \"Super 301\" clause-openly legislating to interfere with Japan's industrial and trade policies, forcing Japan to carry out institutional reforms.</p><p>In 1989, Japan and the United States began negotiations on the \"Japan-US Structural Agreement\", and negotiated on economic policies, systems and corporate behaviors, which prompted Japan to carry out open reforms in circulation system and business practices: for example, taking housing as a strategic industry and further opening up the circulation system; Further open up the domestic market and reorganize the import and export system in accordance with the principle of free trade.</p><p>By 1989, the U.S. Trade Representative had initiated a total of 24 Section 301 investigations against Japan, almost all of which were made concessions by the Japanese government.</p><p>At the same time, due to the \"Plaza Accord\" reached by the United States, Japan, the Federal Republic of Germany, France and the United Kingdom in 1985, the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar was forced to appreciate sharply. After \"Black Monday\" in October 1987, the yen appreciated to 120 yen/dollar, with an increase of 90% in 1988.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ab4dd9acfe04f8aab569cb046a73ff\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Plaza agreement signing site</p><p>The sharp appreciation of the yen has dealt a devastating blow to Japan, which is mainly an export-oriented economy. Production costs have risen sharply, and high-quality enterprises have begun to flee overseas. In order to cope with the exchange rate crisis, the Japanese government has begun to cut interest rates sharply, hoping to \"send money\" so that enterprises can invest and set up factories at low cost.</p><p>But in fact, due to the long industrial return cycle, a large amount of yen lent at low interest rate has not been invested in the real economy, and the abundant liquidity of the money market has begun to flow into the housing market, stock market and luxury goods market with the \"strength\" of the yen's sharp appreciation after the Plaza Accord.</p><p>Since 1986, Japan's rapidly expanding economic prosperity has been called the \"Heisei Boom\". At the end of 1985, the Nikkei 225 stock price index closed at 13,083 points and at the end of 1989, it closed at 38,916 points. In four years, the Nikkei 225 index rose by 197.45%, and the total market value of stocks continued to expand to 896 trillion yen, accounting for 60% of Japan's gross national product that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5d38582a2e3123322a61e5b005f13f\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Japanese streets in the 1980s</p><p>The land price in Tokyo is soaring, and the land price of the Tokyo Imperial Palace of the Japanese Emperor exceeds the land valuation of the whole France; A 10,000 yen note in the Ginza area is thrown on the ground, and you can't buy the small piece of land it covers.</p><p>At the same time, the Japanese have become the world's largest consumers of luxury goods. They have swept watch shops, jewelry stores and wine houses all over the world. Foreign banks and securities companies have counted their money in the Japanese market.</p><p>After a large number of short-selling options on stock indexes that completely deviate from economic reality, the bubble broke out when it expanded to the extreme.</p><p>In October 1990, Japan's five-year bull market ended, and the stock market plummeted by 63.24%, creating the largest decline in the history of the Japanese stock market. The following year, the property market plummeted by 65%, bankrupt enterprises emerged in an endless stream, the number of unemployed people surged, and the wealth of the whole country shrank by nearly 50%.</p><p>At the same time, the short-term sharp recession has caused countless ordinary people who have no time to get out to be \"stuck\" by various capital investment targets, and a major economic reshuffle has allowed the wealth of the whole society to be transferred to the hands of a few winners.</p><p>Since then, the Japanese economy has been in a downturn for a long time.</p><p>The Nikkei Average Index went from a historical high of 38,957 on December 29, 1989 to a low of 6,994.9 on October 29, 2008, with a cumulative decline of more than 82%. In the next four years, the Nikkei Average Index still hovered around 10,000 points.</p><p>That is to say, since the late 1990s, the \"lost decade\" of Japanese economy has been reported in newspapers, and the problem has not been solved so far.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ced67142e550e77f5f84c394cba59c8d\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What exactly has Japan lost in 30 years?</b></p><p>In 2010, as the Japanese economy still did not improve, the media began to put forward the \"lost twenty years\" of the Japanese economy.</p><p>In fact, \"twenty years\" is still not the end of Japan's economic downturn. Counting from the highest closing point in the history of the Nikkei 225 Index at 38,957, it has been falling all the way since then, falling to less than 10,000 points many times during this period, and it did not stop falling until 2017.</p><p>At the close of trading on July 7, 2022, the Nikkei 225 Index closed at 26,490.53 points, still more than 10,000 points away from its highest point.</p><p>The \"Plaza Accord\", which caused the yen to appreciate sharply, is considered by many people to be the root cause of the Great Depression caused by Japan's bubble economy.</p><p>However, in the analysis of this Great Depression, the criticism of the Plaza Accord is not consistent. Former Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Finance of Japan, Toyo Tian, even personally refuted this view.</p><p>Because from 1985 to 1990, with overseas investment under the strong yen, Japan's overseas net assets rose from more than 1 trillion US dollars to more than 3 trillion US dollars, that is, the so-called \"there is another Japan besides Japan\"--</p><p>The 300% appreciation of the yen in 10 years is accompanied by a huge increase in production costs and labor costs. In order to maintain their competitiveness, a large number of Japanese companies have to look overseas, which makes Japanese companies' capital flow out rapidly.</p><p>The rapidly appreciating yen and the increasingly anxious Japan-US trade war have also boosted this outflow-the strong yen is convenient for Japanese companies to invest and acquire overseas companies, while building factories abroad can bypass the US sanctions on \"Made in Japan\".</p><p>From 1985 to 1990, Japanese companies carried out a total of 21 huge overseas mergers and acquisitions worth more than 50 billion yen.</p><p>In 1989, Rockefeller Center bought by Mitsubishi for $1.4 billion, Universal Pictures bought by Panasonic for $6 billion, and Columbia Pictures bought by Sony for $3.4 billion-including the copyright of Spider-Man that Marvel Comics has not been able to recover now;</p><p>The Japanese are even ambitious to buy the United States as \"Japan's forty-first county\". Why does the city look so like Tokyo from the 70th floor of the InterContinental Los Angeles Hotel?</p><p>Because the Japanese bought half of the real estate here back then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6420f38680bf983f828177b00418e180\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Japanese scholar Ito Gan wrote in Anger Across the Pacific that some Japanese people believe that Japan will become the next \"superpower\" and the government will lead the people to \"end the American era\".</p><p>It's just that these real estates belong to giant enterprises, consortia, speculators and wealthy foreign businessmen, but they don't belong to the Japanese people alone.</p><p>In 2020, \"Sankei Shimbun\" reported that the revenue of Japanese overseas local legal persons has increased by 220% in the past 20 years. According to OECD statistics, Japan's per capita purchasing power level in 2020 is only US $39,000, an increase of only US $39,000 from 1990. 4%.</p><p><b>1. Thirty years of unmoved income</b></p><p>After 1900, Japan's investment activities came to an abrupt end.</p><p>Banks go bankrupt, factories go bankrupt, mortgage disasters, and banks full of non-performing assets have to merge and reorganize; The sharply rising production costs have caused a large number of enterprises to close down, and the worst thing is ordinary people-they have been laid off in the tide of bankruptcies, their lifelong savings have volatilized in the bubble crisis, and they have to bear heavy mortgages.</p><p>However, after the collapse of the lifelong employment system and the merit sequence, they worked overtime in order to keep their jobs. Although the \"social animal\" culture was not born in Japan's bubble crisis, it has been solidified since then-accepting competition and the supremacy of production efficiency. The squeezing of gears on themselves has become the most helpless choice for Japanese migrant workers.</p><p>However, the torrent of social development pushed the Japanese forward, but it failed to give them the due reward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11648f82b27132391bb1a6cef2c3432a\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In February 2021, the \"Diligence Statistics Survey\" released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan showed that Japan's per capita monthly salary in 2020 was 318,299 yen, or about 19,600 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, the largest decrease in 12 years.</p><p>This figure was about 350,000 yuan in 1990, when the average annual income of Japanese people was 4.25 million yen. Based on the exchange rate at that time, the monthly salary was about 11,600 yuan.</p><p>The average annual income of \"standing still\" for 30 consecutive years has become the most violent \"contraceptive pill\" in Japan.</p><p><b>2. Irreversible aging</b></p><p>In 2020, Japan's total population ranked 11th in the world, falling out of the top ten for the first time since 1950. From 1974 to 2020, Japan's birth rate dropped from 1.86% to 0.67%, and it began to fall into negative population growth for 13 consecutive years around 2008.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's elderly population aged 65 and above reached 36.4 million, accounting for 29.1% of the total population.</p><p>The declining birthrate and aging have caused Japan to fall into a serious shortage of labor supply and slow down in labor productivity growth, thus causing the economic growth to continue to slow down:</p><p>\"From 1961 to 2020, Japan's working-age population growth rate, labor productivity growth rate and economic trend basically changed synchronously. From 1961 to 1975, the average growth rate of Japan's working-age population remained at a high level of 1.6%, and the growth rate of labor productivity reached a peak of 8.4%. The average growth rate of real GDP also remained at a high level of 7.7%; From 1976 to 1988, the working-age population and labor productivity maintained a low growth rate of 0.9% and 3.7% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate also dropped to 4.4%; From 1989 to 2020, the growth rates of working-age population and labor productivity dropped sharply from 0.9% and 4.4% to-0.8% and 1.1% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate dropped from 5.4% to-4.4%. \"</p><p>With the decline of the labor force and the decrease of tax revenue, the expenses such as pensions that need to be spent are rapidly expanding. Since 1990, the number of people living on pensions has been five times that of taxpayers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c92a0dfa8f71abcdb41b554124294a7\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 2004, Japan launched the pension reform, increasing the tax revenue by 0.354% every year. By 2017, the pension paid by taxpayers had accounted for 18.3% of their annual income, which became a heavy burden for the Japanese people.</p><p>The ranking of Japan's Human Development Index (which measures per capita GDP, education, and medical care) dropped from the first place in the world in 1990 to the 19th place in the world in 2020.</p><p>At the same time, Japanese young people have a negative attitude towards life, low material desire and lack of motivation for struggle due to the decline in expected income, resulting in \"hikikomori\". According to the definition of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan, hikikomori are people who stay at home for more than 6 months and almost cut off contact with the outside world. According to the data of the Survey on Living Conditions of the Cabinet Office of Japan, there are 541,000 hikikomori aged 15-39 and 40-64, respectively.</p><p>The consumption and house purchase demand of the elderly are far lower than those of young people, and young people seriously lack consumption desire, which makes it difficult to significantly increase total consumption. Japan has fallen into a \"low desire society\".</p><p><b>3. Lifelong QE, but always weak</b></p><p>In 2021, Japan's total GDP of 4,937.4 billion US dollars will fall from the \"5 prefix\", but it is still an economic power that stands out from Europe and ranks as the third largest economy in the world. It doesn't seem to be bad.</p><p>But in fact, Japan's GDP reached 5.55 trillion US dollars in 1995. At that time, the ratio of Japan's GDP to the GDP of the United States was 71.34%. In 2021, this ratio became 21.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0823be1f503a8cdff0d86e9ba57b90cf\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compared with the glory of the past, today's Japan is indeed somewhat embarrassed.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's macro leverage ratio also leads the world. According to the latest data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), at the end of the second quarter of 2021, the macro leverage ratios of various countries were 286.2% in the United States, 284.3% in the Eurozone, and 416.5% in Japan.</p><p>The huge debt scale comes from decades of Japanese quantitative easing.</p><p>Quantitative easing is a Japanese innovation in the field of finance.</p><p>In 1998, the Bank of Japan began to implement the policy of zero interest rate and quantitative easing for the first time, that is, to regulate economic activities by controlling the currency supply.</p><p>In 2013, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda launched a monetary policy stimulus plan to boost inflation.</p><p>Since 2013, the yen has continued to depreciate against the US dollar, and exports have achieved a substantial increase; At the same time, the Japanese benchmark interest rate has been falling all the way, and the ten-year Treasury Bond interest rate even dropped to a negative number in 2016.</p><p>At the same time, the Bank of Japan began to purchase ETFs (exchange-traded funds) on a large scale, with an average annual ETF purchase scale close to 4 trillion yen. By 2021, the Bank of Japan's stocks will account for more than 80% of stock ETFs, accounting for more than 80% of the total market value of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.</p><p>Although the Nikkei 225 index has strengthened all the way from around 8,000 points in 2012, and even broke through the 30,000-point mark in February 2021, this still seems to be a mirror-like bubble boom because of the huge amount injected by the Bank of Japan. The base currency has neither raised inflation nor driven economic growth.</p><p>In terms of economic structure, except for core basic raw materials, Japan still maintains its barrier advantage, and almost all other industries are hesitating. The markets of automobiles, shipbuilding, machine tools, and electronics industries are all being divided up by the United States, China, South Korea and other countries, and there are few achievements in emerging industries.</p><p>At present, the number of Japanese unicorn companies is only 6, which lags far behind the 554, 180, 64, 43, and 26 in the United States, China, India, Britain, and Germany, and their valuations are all less than US $2 billion.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's debt has expanded rapidly. As of the end of December 2021, Japan's national debt, composed of Treasury Bond, borrowings and short-term government securities, reached 1,218.4 trillion yen, and the per capita debt of Japanese citizens was approximately 9.71 million yen, or approximately RMB 534573 yuan.</p><p>However, at a time when central banks in the United States, Britain, and Europe have begun to tighten their pace, the Bank of Japan has not changed its loose monetary policy.</p><p><b>\"Against the market\" easing, unlimited money printing, yen falling streak</b></p><p>The yen's losing streak began in March.</p><p>After the Federal Reserve's rate hike landed in March and released signals that it would increase rate hike and accelerate shrinking balance sheet in the future, both Britain and Europe began to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy, but the Bank of Japan did the opposite and insisted on maintaining quantitative easing policy.</p><p>On March 28th, the Bank of Japan issued a press release announcing that it would launch a \"continuous designated price market operation\" measure to curb the rise of interest rates from March 29th to 31st, that is, to purchase public bonds from private financial institutions in unlimited amounts at designated interest rates.</p><p>On the same day, the yen exchange rate plunged 1.38%.</p><p>On April 20th, less than a month later, the Bank of Japan announced an unlimited purchase of 10-year Treasury Bond to defend the 0.25% yield ceiling of 10-year Japanese Treasury Bond, which once again pushed the depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Some experts believe that since the depreciation of the yen is beneficial to Japan's export-oriented economy, the Bank of Japan has always regarded the loose monetary environment as an important means to boost market expectations, especially when it has just entered the new fiscal year, it is even more difficult for the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy.</p><p>But can easing save Japan's economy?</p><p>In fact, Japan's trade structure is unstable. Since the Abe government came to power and introduced the unlimited stimulus policy, the total export volume has declined continuously from 2012 to 2015, and only maintained a trade surplus in 2016 and 2017.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2490580bd25519041d5aef1bb5c3c0\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Recently, global crude oil and raw material prices have soared, and the depreciation of the yen has raised the costs of Japanese companies and broadened the channels for imported inflation. At the same time, according to the \"Value-added Trade Statistics\" released by the OECD, the added value created in Japan has dropped from 94% in 1995 to 83% in 2018, a decrease of 11%. Japan's related high value-added products and services have It is increasingly difficult to offset its rising production costs.</p><p>The only beneficiary is Japanese local speculators. With the sharp landing of the Federal Reserve, U.S. bond yields continue to soar, and the spread between U.S. and Japanese Treasury Bond has become wider and wider, so local speculators have begun to short-sell Japanese yen on a large scale., borrowing yen to buy arbitrage of U.S. bonds.</p><p>What about ordinary people?</p><p>Rising prices have led to rising living costs and weakened consumption power, and the \"lost thirty years\" seems to be postponed again-the depreciation of the yen, which was recognized as \"beneficial to the economy\" by the Bank of Japan, has never effectively boosted Japan's economic growth for many years, but has prevented the Japanese economy from escaping from the large-scale financial easing policy for more than ten years.</p><p>Thirty years ago, then central bank governor Mie Yasu warned the government that a country must not survive by blowing economic bubbles, otherwise it will be a great harm to the country.</p><p>So shortly after he took office, Japan implemented a tightening monetary policy, greatly raised the loan interest rate and actively punctured the bubble. This hard landing plunged Japan into decades of depression, but it was often regarded by later generations as the decisive decision of \"a strong man breaking his wrist\".</p><p>It's just that the car in front has been overturned, and the car in front is unknown.</p><p>Thirty years later, Japan seems to be still the same Japan.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1639703443321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind Abe's assassination, how did the Japanese economy \"lose\" for three decades?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind Abe's assassination, how did the Japanese economy \"lose\" for three decades?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">风暴眼工作室</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-08 17:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On July 8th, the news that former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot shocked the whole world.</p><p>According to CCTV reports, on the 8th local time, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot when he delivered a speech in Nara that morning. It is reported that Shinzo Abe was still conscious when he got on the ambulance. At present, Shinzo Abe has no vital signs.</p><p>The yen exchange rate was also affected. As of 11:30 on July 8, the decline of the US dollar against the yen expanded to 0.47% to 135.37, and the yen appreciated.</p><p>Why did the yen suddenly appreciate after Abe's assassination? Perhaps it has something to do with the \"Abenomics\" promoted during his term of office. After Shinzo Abe took office at the end of 2012, he accelerated the implementation of a series of economic stimulus policies, the most notable of which was the loose monetary policy, and the yen exchange rate began to depreciate at an accelerated pace.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the yen exchange rate has continued to fall more obviously. On June 13th, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar once fell below the 135 yen to 1 US dollar mark, setting a new low in about 24 years. In more than a year since the beginning of 2021, the yen has depreciated significantly by more than 25% relative to the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73ac608c7438fa9083c60e6af1c6dfd9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As a traditional safe-haven currency, it continued to plummet, causing Japanese bonds and yen assets to begin to be sold off sharply.</p><p>While Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated his view that the Bank of Japan must maintain its massive stimulus plan to shore up the fragile economic recovery.</p><p>But for ordinary Japanese, it is still debatable whether the fragile economic recovery needs to be supported by the sharp depreciation of the yen. After all, as a big importer, Japan's energy dependence on foreign countries is as high as 88%, and its food self-sufficiency rate is only 37%. The rise in commodity prices brought about by the depreciation of the yen will directly affect citizens' lives.</p><p>Especially after so many years of substantial easing, since the Japanese economy collapsed in 1990, Japan's average annual GDP growth rate has been less than 1%.</p><p>The real estate has been widened, the price has been widened, but the disposable income of residents has not been widened, and people somewhat lack confidence. After experiencing the \"lost decade\", \"lost twenty years\" and \"lost thirty years\", Japan's lost eyes are going to the time dimension of Atlantis.</p><p>In the fourth decade, will Japan be able to make a comeback?</p><p><b>Abe and his \"Abenomics\"</b></p><p>Although Shinzo Abe resigned as prime minister in August 2020, the sharp depreciation of the yen is closely related to his \"Abenomics\".</p><p>At the end of 2012, Shinzo Abe once again served as the Prime Minister of Japan, and immediately threw out the route of \"fighting for the economy\", which was heated as \"Abenomics\" by the media.</p><p>The so-called \"Abenomics\" is a policy combination to solve Japan's economic problems through experimental monetary policy (QQE for short), proactive fiscal policy and economic structural reform. Including \"three major strategies\":</p><p>First, it proposed the largest quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy in Japanese history, and the central bank purchased 7.5 trillion yen of Treasury Bond every month;</p><p>Second, break through the expansionary fiscal policy of the previous government with a total budget of 70 trillion yen;</p><p>Third, a package of growth strategies including the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPP), deregulation to arouse private investment and promote innovation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79ef0cf1ad82f6f4d2dbd2d9e5cde013\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Abenomics is the latest effort to solve Japan's economic downturn since 1990s. So how effective is the implementation?</p><p>An analysis article of global macro speculation pointed out that Abenomics is a great economic experiment. Japanese financiers and politicians broke stereotypes and used a three-pronged approach of structural adjustment, fiscal and monetary policies to increase Japan's potential economic growth rate and overcome deflation. The first three years of the experiment were quite successful.</p><p>At the same time, the article also pointed out that \"Abenomics\" was bleak from 2016 to 2020. Under the impact of COVID-19 pandemic, some Abenomics goals have been achieved, especially inflation expectations, yen exchange rate, real interest rates and stock prices. However, the potential output growth in the same period is not good, which proves that structural reform is not being promoted effectively.</p><p>Zhang Jifeng, deputy director of the Japanese Institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that Abe's achievements in economic governance are obvious to all, but there are also serious problems. One of the most serious problems is the difficult financial situation, which has never changed.</p><p>Liu Yun, an associate researcher at the Northeast Asia Institute of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, believes that if we only look at Japan's GDP, there will be a misunderstanding that Abenomics is not very successful. But on the whole, the Japanese economy is an upward attitude. For example, wages in Japan have increased and profits of large enterprises have grown well, so the Japanese economic situation has improved.</p><p><b>\"Lost\" began in 1990</b></p><p>The original intention of \"Abenomics\" is to save Japan's persistently sluggish economy. The \"lost decade\" was first put forward when the Japanese stock market bubble burst in 1990.</p><p>More than ten years before the bursting of the bubble that devastated Japan, Japan was once a \"miracle-making country\".</p><p>From the early labor-intensive enterprises such as cotton textile, they began to accumulate capital, and then took manufacturing as the core industry, actively expanded investment, introduced foreign advanced technology, and quickly rebuilt the domestic industrial system from the ruins after the war.</p><p>By 1964, the Tokyo Olympic Games became an important symbol of Japan's economic development and transformation. Due to the demand for steel for large-scale infrastructure construction and the demand for color TVs at the opening of the Olympic Games, Japan's steel and electromechanical industries flourished, and Japan experienced a complete \"The development stage from exchanging shirts for planes\" to \"Made in Japan\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0a4f35b86afc5382004806076b2487\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 1965, Japan's steel exports to the United States accounted for half of the total imports of the United States. In 1968, Japan became the world's second largest economy after the United States.</p><p>At the same time, Japan has firmly grasped the new generation of industrial revolution. Automobiles, steel, telecommunications, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals have comprehensively dominated the US market, and Hitachi, NEC, Fujitsu, Mitsubishi and Toshiba have joined forces.</p><p>In the consecutive trade deficits of the United States with Japan that year, the industrial giants suffered losses year after year, and Intel was even on the verge of bankruptcy.</p><p>Under the dilemma of being beaten by Japanese goods, the United States launched a trade war that Chinese people now look familiar-</p><p>Since 1981, Japanese cars sold all over the world have been heavily taxed by the United States, and their export quotas have been restricted.</p><p>At the same time, the United States imposed 100% tariffs on Japanese high-tech products such as computers and televisions on the grounds of \"dumping behavior\" by Japan. Japanese semiconductors were set a lower export price limit, and Japanese chips were subject to 100% punitive tariffs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2325f7d267568d30d4ad4c0f6022d74e\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>U.S. lawmakers smash Japanese products live</p><p>In addition, the executives of Japanese enterprises were arrested in the name of \"industrial espionage\". Japan was accused by the United States of being a \"currency manipulator\" and stealing intellectual property rights from the United States, and was asked to increase the import of American agricultural products, cancel the trade terms unfavorable to foreign companies, let Japan impose voluntary export restrictions in textiles, steel, television and machine tools, and at the same time carry out factory transfer and industrial upgrading...</p><p>While constantly accusing Japan of supporting industrial policies through the state, the United States introduced a new trade law in 1988, activating the \"Super 301\" clause-openly legislating to interfere with Japan's industrial and trade policies, forcing Japan to carry out institutional reforms.</p><p>In 1989, Japan and the United States began negotiations on the \"Japan-US Structural Agreement\", and negotiated on economic policies, systems and corporate behaviors, which prompted Japan to carry out open reforms in circulation system and business practices: for example, taking housing as a strategic industry and further opening up the circulation system; Further open up the domestic market and reorganize the import and export system in accordance with the principle of free trade.</p><p>By 1989, the U.S. Trade Representative had initiated a total of 24 Section 301 investigations against Japan, almost all of which were made concessions by the Japanese government.</p><p>At the same time, due to the \"Plaza Accord\" reached by the United States, Japan, the Federal Republic of Germany, France and the United Kingdom in 1985, the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar was forced to appreciate sharply. After \"Black Monday\" in October 1987, the yen appreciated to 120 yen/dollar, with an increase of 90% in 1988.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ab4dd9acfe04f8aab569cb046a73ff\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Plaza agreement signing site</p><p>The sharp appreciation of the yen has dealt a devastating blow to Japan, which is mainly an export-oriented economy. Production costs have risen sharply, and high-quality enterprises have begun to flee overseas. In order to cope with the exchange rate crisis, the Japanese government has begun to cut interest rates sharply, hoping to \"send money\" so that enterprises can invest and set up factories at low cost.</p><p>But in fact, due to the long industrial return cycle, a large amount of yen lent at low interest rate has not been invested in the real economy, and the abundant liquidity of the money market has begun to flow into the housing market, stock market and luxury goods market with the \"strength\" of the yen's sharp appreciation after the Plaza Accord.</p><p>Since 1986, Japan's rapidly expanding economic prosperity has been called the \"Heisei Boom\". At the end of 1985, the Nikkei 225 stock price index closed at 13,083 points and at the end of 1989, it closed at 38,916 points. In four years, the Nikkei 225 index rose by 197.45%, and the total market value of stocks continued to expand to 896 trillion yen, accounting for 60% of Japan's gross national product that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5d38582a2e3123322a61e5b005f13f\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Japanese streets in the 1980s</p><p>The land price in Tokyo is soaring, and the land price of the Tokyo Imperial Palace of the Japanese Emperor exceeds the land valuation of the whole France; A 10,000 yen note in the Ginza area is thrown on the ground, and you can't buy the small piece of land it covers.</p><p>At the same time, the Japanese have become the world's largest consumers of luxury goods. They have swept watch shops, jewelry stores and wine houses all over the world. Foreign banks and securities companies have counted their money in the Japanese market.</p><p>After a large number of short-selling options on stock indexes that completely deviate from economic reality, the bubble broke out when it expanded to the extreme.</p><p>In October 1990, Japan's five-year bull market ended, and the stock market plummeted by 63.24%, creating the largest decline in the history of the Japanese stock market. The following year, the property market plummeted by 65%, bankrupt enterprises emerged in an endless stream, the number of unemployed people surged, and the wealth of the whole country shrank by nearly 50%.</p><p>At the same time, the short-term sharp recession has caused countless ordinary people who have no time to get out to be \"stuck\" by various capital investment targets, and a major economic reshuffle has allowed the wealth of the whole society to be transferred to the hands of a few winners.</p><p>Since then, the Japanese economy has been in a downturn for a long time.</p><p>The Nikkei Average Index went from a historical high of 38,957 on December 29, 1989 to a low of 6,994.9 on October 29, 2008, with a cumulative decline of more than 82%. In the next four years, the Nikkei Average Index still hovered around 10,000 points.</p><p>That is to say, since the late 1990s, the \"lost decade\" of Japanese economy has been reported in newspapers, and the problem has not been solved so far.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ced67142e550e77f5f84c394cba59c8d\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What exactly has Japan lost in 30 years?</b></p><p>In 2010, as the Japanese economy still did not improve, the media began to put forward the \"lost twenty years\" of the Japanese economy.</p><p>In fact, \"twenty years\" is still not the end of Japan's economic downturn. Counting from the highest closing point in the history of the Nikkei 225 Index at 38,957, it has been falling all the way since then, falling to less than 10,000 points many times during this period, and it did not stop falling until 2017.</p><p>At the close of trading on July 7, 2022, the Nikkei 225 Index closed at 26,490.53 points, still more than 10,000 points away from its highest point.</p><p>The \"Plaza Accord\", which caused the yen to appreciate sharply, is considered by many people to be the root cause of the Great Depression caused by Japan's bubble economy.</p><p>However, in the analysis of this Great Depression, the criticism of the Plaza Accord is not consistent. Former Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Finance of Japan, Toyo Tian, even personally refuted this view.</p><p>Because from 1985 to 1990, with overseas investment under the strong yen, Japan's overseas net assets rose from more than 1 trillion US dollars to more than 3 trillion US dollars, that is, the so-called \"there is another Japan besides Japan\"--</p><p>The 300% appreciation of the yen in 10 years is accompanied by a huge increase in production costs and labor costs. In order to maintain their competitiveness, a large number of Japanese companies have to look overseas, which makes Japanese companies' capital flow out rapidly.</p><p>The rapidly appreciating yen and the increasingly anxious Japan-US trade war have also boosted this outflow-the strong yen is convenient for Japanese companies to invest and acquire overseas companies, while building factories abroad can bypass the US sanctions on \"Made in Japan\".</p><p>From 1985 to 1990, Japanese companies carried out a total of 21 huge overseas mergers and acquisitions worth more than 50 billion yen.</p><p>In 1989, Rockefeller Center bought by Mitsubishi for $1.4 billion, Universal Pictures bought by Panasonic for $6 billion, and Columbia Pictures bought by Sony for $3.4 billion-including the copyright of Spider-Man that Marvel Comics has not been able to recover now;</p><p>The Japanese are even ambitious to buy the United States as \"Japan's forty-first county\". Why does the city look so like Tokyo from the 70th floor of the InterContinental Los Angeles Hotel?</p><p>Because the Japanese bought half of the real estate here back then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6420f38680bf983f828177b00418e180\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Japanese scholar Ito Gan wrote in Anger Across the Pacific that some Japanese people believe that Japan will become the next \"superpower\" and the government will lead the people to \"end the American era\".</p><p>It's just that these real estates belong to giant enterprises, consortia, speculators and wealthy foreign businessmen, but they don't belong to the Japanese people alone.</p><p>In 2020, \"Sankei Shimbun\" reported that the revenue of Japanese overseas local legal persons has increased by 220% in the past 20 years. According to OECD statistics, Japan's per capita purchasing power level in 2020 is only US $39,000, an increase of only US $39,000 from 1990. 4%.</p><p><b>1. Thirty years of unmoved income</b></p><p>After 1900, Japan's investment activities came to an abrupt end.</p><p>Banks go bankrupt, factories go bankrupt, mortgage disasters, and banks full of non-performing assets have to merge and reorganize; The sharply rising production costs have caused a large number of enterprises to close down, and the worst thing is ordinary people-they have been laid off in the tide of bankruptcies, their lifelong savings have volatilized in the bubble crisis, and they have to bear heavy mortgages.</p><p>However, after the collapse of the lifelong employment system and the merit sequence, they worked overtime in order to keep their jobs. Although the \"social animal\" culture was not born in Japan's bubble crisis, it has been solidified since then-accepting competition and the supremacy of production efficiency. The squeezing of gears on themselves has become the most helpless choice for Japanese migrant workers.</p><p>However, the torrent of social development pushed the Japanese forward, but it failed to give them the due reward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11648f82b27132391bb1a6cef2c3432a\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In February 2021, the \"Diligence Statistics Survey\" released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan showed that Japan's per capita monthly salary in 2020 was 318,299 yen, or about 19,600 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, the largest decrease in 12 years.</p><p>This figure was about 350,000 yuan in 1990, when the average annual income of Japanese people was 4.25 million yen. Based on the exchange rate at that time, the monthly salary was about 11,600 yuan.</p><p>The average annual income of \"standing still\" for 30 consecutive years has become the most violent \"contraceptive pill\" in Japan.</p><p><b>2. Irreversible aging</b></p><p>In 2020, Japan's total population ranked 11th in the world, falling out of the top ten for the first time since 1950. From 1974 to 2020, Japan's birth rate dropped from 1.86% to 0.67%, and it began to fall into negative population growth for 13 consecutive years around 2008.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's elderly population aged 65 and above reached 36.4 million, accounting for 29.1% of the total population.</p><p>The declining birthrate and aging have caused Japan to fall into a serious shortage of labor supply and slow down in labor productivity growth, thus causing the economic growth to continue to slow down:</p><p>\"From 1961 to 2020, Japan's working-age population growth rate, labor productivity growth rate and economic trend basically changed synchronously. From 1961 to 1975, the average growth rate of Japan's working-age population remained at a high level of 1.6%, and the growth rate of labor productivity reached a peak of 8.4%. The average growth rate of real GDP also remained at a high level of 7.7%; From 1976 to 1988, the working-age population and labor productivity maintained a low growth rate of 0.9% and 3.7% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate also dropped to 4.4%; From 1989 to 2020, the growth rates of working-age population and labor productivity dropped sharply from 0.9% and 4.4% to-0.8% and 1.1% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate dropped from 5.4% to-4.4%. \"</p><p>With the decline of the labor force and the decrease of tax revenue, the expenses such as pensions that need to be spent are rapidly expanding. Since 1990, the number of people living on pensions has been five times that of taxpayers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c92a0dfa8f71abcdb41b554124294a7\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 2004, Japan launched the pension reform, increasing the tax revenue by 0.354% every year. By 2017, the pension paid by taxpayers had accounted for 18.3% of their annual income, which became a heavy burden for the Japanese people.</p><p>The ranking of Japan's Human Development Index (which measures per capita GDP, education, and medical care) dropped from the first place in the world in 1990 to the 19th place in the world in 2020.</p><p>At the same time, Japanese young people have a negative attitude towards life, low material desire and lack of motivation for struggle due to the decline in expected income, resulting in \"hikikomori\". According to the definition of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan, hikikomori are people who stay at home for more than 6 months and almost cut off contact with the outside world. According to the data of the Survey on Living Conditions of the Cabinet Office of Japan, there are 541,000 hikikomori aged 15-39 and 40-64, respectively.</p><p>The consumption and house purchase demand of the elderly are far lower than those of young people, and young people seriously lack consumption desire, which makes it difficult to significantly increase total consumption. Japan has fallen into a \"low desire society\".</p><p><b>3. Lifelong QE, but always weak</b></p><p>In 2021, Japan's total GDP of 4,937.4 billion US dollars will fall from the \"5 prefix\", but it is still an economic power that stands out from Europe and ranks as the third largest economy in the world. It doesn't seem to be bad.</p><p>But in fact, Japan's GDP reached 5.55 trillion US dollars in 1995. At that time, the ratio of Japan's GDP to the GDP of the United States was 71.34%. In 2021, this ratio became 21.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0823be1f503a8cdff0d86e9ba57b90cf\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compared with the glory of the past, today's Japan is indeed somewhat embarrassed.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's macro leverage ratio also leads the world. According to the latest data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), at the end of the second quarter of 2021, the macro leverage ratios of various countries were 286.2% in the United States, 284.3% in the Eurozone, and 416.5% in Japan.</p><p>The huge debt scale comes from decades of Japanese quantitative easing.</p><p>Quantitative easing is a Japanese innovation in the field of finance.</p><p>In 1998, the Bank of Japan began to implement the policy of zero interest rate and quantitative easing for the first time, that is, to regulate economic activities by controlling the currency supply.</p><p>In 2013, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda launched a monetary policy stimulus plan to boost inflation.</p><p>Since 2013, the yen has continued to depreciate against the US dollar, and exports have achieved a substantial increase; At the same time, the Japanese benchmark interest rate has been falling all the way, and the ten-year Treasury Bond interest rate even dropped to a negative number in 2016.</p><p>At the same time, the Bank of Japan began to purchase ETFs (exchange-traded funds) on a large scale, with an average annual ETF purchase scale close to 4 trillion yen. By 2021, the Bank of Japan's stocks will account for more than 80% of stock ETFs, accounting for more than 80% of the total market value of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.</p><p>Although the Nikkei 225 index has strengthened all the way from around 8,000 points in 2012, and even broke through the 30,000-point mark in February 2021, this still seems to be a mirror-like bubble boom because of the huge amount injected by the Bank of Japan. The base currency has neither raised inflation nor driven economic growth.</p><p>In terms of economic structure, except for core basic raw materials, Japan still maintains its barrier advantage, and almost all other industries are hesitating. The markets of automobiles, shipbuilding, machine tools, and electronics industries are all being divided up by the United States, China, South Korea and other countries, and there are few achievements in emerging industries.</p><p>At present, the number of Japanese unicorn companies is only 6, which lags far behind the 554, 180, 64, 43, and 26 in the United States, China, India, Britain, and Germany, and their valuations are all less than US $2 billion.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's debt has expanded rapidly. As of the end of December 2021, Japan's national debt, composed of Treasury Bond, borrowings and short-term government securities, reached 1,218.4 trillion yen, and the per capita debt of Japanese citizens was approximately 9.71 million yen, or approximately RMB 534573 yuan.</p><p>However, at a time when central banks in the United States, Britain, and Europe have begun to tighten their pace, the Bank of Japan has not changed its loose monetary policy.</p><p><b>\"Against the market\" easing, unlimited money printing, yen falling streak</b></p><p>The yen's losing streak began in March.</p><p>After the Federal Reserve's rate hike landed in March and released signals that it would increase rate hike and accelerate shrinking balance sheet in the future, both Britain and Europe began to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy, but the Bank of Japan did the opposite and insisted on maintaining quantitative easing policy.</p><p>On March 28th, the Bank of Japan issued a press release announcing that it would launch a \"continuous designated price market operation\" measure to curb the rise of interest rates from March 29th to 31st, that is, to purchase public bonds from private financial institutions in unlimited amounts at designated interest rates.</p><p>On the same day, the yen exchange rate plunged 1.38%.</p><p>On April 20th, less than a month later, the Bank of Japan announced an unlimited purchase of 10-year Treasury Bond to defend the 0.25% yield ceiling of 10-year Japanese Treasury Bond, which once again pushed the depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Some experts believe that since the depreciation of the yen is beneficial to Japan's export-oriented economy, the Bank of Japan has always regarded the loose monetary environment as an important means to boost market expectations, especially when it has just entered the new fiscal year, it is even more difficult for the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy.</p><p>But can easing save Japan's economy?</p><p>In fact, Japan's trade structure is unstable. Since the Abe government came to power and introduced the unlimited stimulus policy, the total export volume has declined continuously from 2012 to 2015, and only maintained a trade surplus in 2016 and 2017.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2490580bd25519041d5aef1bb5c3c0\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Recently, global crude oil and raw material prices have soared, and the depreciation of the yen has raised the costs of Japanese companies and broadened the channels for imported inflation. At the same time, according to the \"Value-added Trade Statistics\" released by the OECD, the added value created in Japan has dropped from 94% in 1995 to 83% in 2018, a decrease of 11%. Japan's related high value-added products and services have It is increasingly difficult to offset its rising production costs.</p><p>The only beneficiary is Japanese local speculators. With the sharp landing of the Federal Reserve, U.S. bond yields continue to soar, and the spread between U.S. and Japanese Treasury Bond has become wider and wider, so local speculators have begun to short-sell Japanese yen on a large scale., borrowing yen to buy arbitrage of U.S. bonds.</p><p>What about ordinary people?</p><p>Rising prices have led to rising living costs and weakened consumption power, and the \"lost thirty years\" seems to be postponed again-the depreciation of the yen, which was recognized as \"beneficial to the economy\" by the Bank of Japan, has never effectively boosted Japan's economic growth for many years, but has prevented the Japanese economy from escaping from the large-scale financial easing policy for more than ten years.</p><p>Thirty years ago, then central bank governor Mie Yasu warned the government that a country must not survive by blowing economic bubbles, otherwise it will be a great harm to the country.</p><p>So shortly after he took office, Japan implemented a tightening monetary policy, greatly raised the loan interest rate and actively punctured the bubble. This hard landing plunged Japan into decades of depression, but it was often regarded by later generations as the decisive decision of \"a strong man breaking his wrist\".</p><p>It's just that the car in front has been overturned, and the car in front is unknown.</p><p>Thirty years later, Japan seems to be still the same Japan.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vyE5FKltsfEpcN7v5P6r4w\">风暴眼工作室</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab6491f7a764c5c5f68017952b8c2931","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vyE5FKltsfEpcN7v5P6r4w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172335974","content_text":"7月8日，日本前首相安倍晋三遭遇枪击的消息震惊全世界。据央视报道，当地时间8日，日本前首相安倍晋三当天上午在奈良发表演讲时中枪 。据悉，安倍晋三在上救护车时还有意识，目前安倍晋三已经没有生命体征。日元汇率也受到了影响，截至7月8日11：30，美元兑日元跌幅扩大至0.47%，报135.37，日元有所升值。安倍遇刺，日元为何会突然升值？或许与其任期内力主推动的“安倍经济学”有关。安倍晋三2012年底上台后加速实施的一系列刺激经济政策，最值得注目的就是宽松货币政策，日元汇率开始加速贬值。今年以来，日元汇率持续下跌态势更加明显。6月13日，日元兑美元汇率一度跌破135日元兑换1美元关口，创下约24年的新低。而从2021年初至今的一年多时间内，日元相对美元已经大幅贬值超过25%。作为传统避险货币持续大跌，让日债和日元资产开始被大幅抛售。虽然日本央行行长黑田东彦重申了他的观点，即日本央行必须维持其大规模刺激计划，以支撑脆弱的经济复苏。但对于普通日本人，脆弱的经济复苏是否需要用日元的大幅贬值来支撑还是值得商榷，毕竟日本作为一个进口大国，能源对外依存度高达88%，粮食自给率仅有37%。日元贬值带来的大宗商品价格抬升，将直接影响市民的生活。尤其是大幅宽松了这么多年，可从1990年日本经济崩溃以来，日本平均年GDP增长率不足1%。宽高了房产、宽起了物价，独独没有宽起来居民的可支配收入，人们多少缺乏点信心。在已经经历了“失落的十年”、\"失落的二十年\"、“失落的三十年”之后，日本的失落眼看着要奔向亚特兰蒂斯的那个时间维度去了。第四个十年，日本又是否能绝地翻盘呢？安倍和他的“安倍经济学”虽然安倍晋三在2020年8月就已经辞任首相，但日元如今的大幅贬值却和他的“安倍经济学”联系紧密。2012年底，安倍晋三再次担任日本首相，随即抛出“拼经济”路线，被媒体热炒为“安倍经济学”。所谓“安倍经济学”，是通过实验性质的货币政策(简称QQE)、积极财政政策和经济结构改革来解决日本经济问题的政策组合。包括“三大策略”：其一，提出日本史上最大规模的量化宽松（QE）货币政策，央行每月购买国债7.5万亿日元；其二，突破前任政府预算总额70万亿日元的扩张性财政政策；其三，囊括《跨太平洋战略经济伙伴协定》（TPP）、放松管制以唤起民间投资和促进创新等在内的一揽子增长战略。安倍经济学是为了解决1990年代以后日本经济不断低迷而做出的最新努力。那么实施效果如何呢？全球宏观投机的一篇分析文章指出，安倍经济学是一个伟大的经济实验，日本金融家和政治家打破成见，用结构调整、财政和货币政策三管齐下的方法提升日本潜在经济增长率，克服通货紧缩。实验的前三年，获得了相当成功。文章同时也指出，“安倍经济学”2016到2020年则表现暗淡。新冠疫情冲击下部分安倍经济学的目标得以实现，尤其是通胀预期、日元汇率、真实利率和股票价格等，但是同期的潜在产出成长并不佳，证明了结构改革推进不力。中国社会科学院日本研究所副所长张季风认为，安倍在经济治理上的成绩大家有目共睹，但是也有较为严重的问题。其中最严重的问题就是财政状况困难，这个局面始终没有得到改变。中国现代国际关系研究院东北亚研究所副研究员刘云认为，若仅从日本GDP来看，会有所误解，认为安倍经济学不太成功。但如果从整体上看，日本经济是一个向上的姿态，例如日本的工资有增加、大企业利润增速不错，所以日本经济形势是有所好转的。“失落”始于1990“安倍经济学”的初衷是为了挽救日本持续低迷的经济。而“失落的十年”最早被提出，则是1990年日本股市泡沫破灭。在这场让日本一蹶不振的泡沫大破灭之前的十数年，日本曾是“缔造奇迹的国家”。从早期的棉纺织等劳动密集型企业开始积累资本，再到后来以制造业为核心产业，积极扩大投资、引进国外先进技术，从战后的废墟里迅速重建起本国的工业体系。到1964年，东京奥运会更是成为衔接日本经济发展转型的重要标志，由于大规模基建对钢铁的需求以及奥运会开幕对彩电的需求，日本的钢铁、机电行业蓬勃发展，日本经历了一个完整的“用衬衫换飞机”到“日本制造”的发展阶段。1965年，日本输出美国的钢铁占到了美国进口总量一半，1968年，日本成为了仅次美国的世界第二大经济体。与此同时，日本牢牢抓住了新一代的产业革命，汽车、钢铁、电信、半导体、制药全面制霸美国市场，日立、NEC、富士通、三菱和东芝群雄并起。而美国在当年对日的连年贸易赤字中，产业巨头们一片连年亏损，英特尔甚至一度濒临倒闭。在被日货打得找不着北的窘境之下，美国不顾脸面地发起了一场国人如今看起来很眼熟的贸易战——从1981年开始，行销全球的日系汽车开始被美国课以重税，并且在出口额度上被加以限制。同时，美国以日方“存在倾销行为”为由对日本的电脑、电视等高科技产品征收100%的关税，日本的半导体被设置出口价格下限、日本的芯片被征收100%惩罚性关税。美国议员直播砸碎日本产品此外，日系企业的高管被以“产业间谍罪”为名拘捕，日本被美国指责为“汇率操纵国”、从美国窃取知识产权，并被要求加大对美国农产品的进口力度、取消对外企不利的贸易条款、让日本在纺织品、钢铁、电视和机床等行业都实行自愿出口限制，同时进行工厂转移和产业升级……在不断指责日本通过国家扶持产业政策的同时，美国却在1988年出台新的贸易法，启用“超级301”条款——公然立法干预日本的产业与贸易政策，迫使日本进行制度性改革。1989年日美开始“日美结构协议”谈判，就经济政策、制度及企业行为等进行磋商，促使日本在流通体制、商业惯例等方面进行开放性改革：例如把住房作为战略性产业，进一步开放流通体制；进一步开放国内市场，按照自由贸易的原则重组进出口体制。截至1989年，美国贸易代表总计向日本发起了24例301条款案件调查，几乎全部由日本政府做出了让步。同时，由于1985年美国、日本、联邦德国、法国和英国达成的“广场协议”，日元兑美元汇率被迫大幅升值。1987年10月的“黑色星期一”之后，日元升值到120日元/美元，1988年度升幅高达90%。广场协议签订现场大幅升值的日元对以出口型经济为主的日本造成了毁灭性的打击，生产成本急剧上涨、优质企业开始逃向海外，为了应对汇率危机，日本政府开始大幅降息，寄希望于“发钱”让企业可以低成本去投资办厂。可实际上，由于实业回报周期过长，低利率贷出大量的日元并没有被投入到到实体经济，货币市场的充裕流动性，随着日元在广场协议后大幅升值的“强势”开始大量流入房市、股市以及奢侈品市场。1986 年开始，日本飞速膨胀的经济繁荣被称为“平成景气”，1985年末日经225股价指数收于13083点， 1989年末收于38916点，四年间日经225指数累计上涨197.45%，并且股票总市值继续膨胀至896万亿日元，占日本当年国民生产总值的60%。80年代的日本街头东京的地价则是坐地飞升，日本天皇的东京皇居土地价格就超过了整个法国的土地估价；银座地区一张1万日元的纸币扔在地上，也买不到它所覆盖的那一小片土地。同时，日本人成了全球最大的奢侈品消费国，他们横扫全球的手表店、珠宝店以及红酒酒庄，外资银行与证券公司在日本市场数钱数到手软。与经济现实完全背离的大批股指沽空期权之后，是泡沫膨胀到极致时爆发。1990年10月，日本长达5年的牛市结束，股市暴跌63.24%，创造了日本股市历史上最大的下跌幅度。次年，楼市暴跌65%，破产企业层出不穷，失业人群人数激增，整个国家财富缩水了近50%。同时，短期的大幅衰退让无数来不及抽身的普通人被各项资本投资标的物“套牢”，一场经济大洗牌让全社会的财富被转移至少数赢家手中。此后，日本经济开始长期处于低迷状态。日经平均指数由1989年12月29日历史高位38957，到2008年10月29日最低6994.9，累积跌幅逾82%，其后4年日经平均指数仍然始终徘徊在10,000点左右。也就是从90年代末开始，日本经济“失去的十年””开始不断见诸报端，并至今难题未解。三十年里，日本具体失去了什么？2010年，由于日本经济仍无起色，媒体开始提出日本经济“失去的二十年”。实际上，“二十年”依旧不是日本经济颓靡的终点。自38957的日经225指数历史最高收盘点位开始算起，此后一路下行，期间多次跌至1万点一下，直至2017年才止跌。2022年7月7日收盘，日经225指数收盘报26490.53点，距其最高点仍有一万多点的差距。那个让日元急剧升值的“广场协议”，被许多人认为是日本泡沫经济引发大萧条的根源。但对于这次大萧条的分析中，对于广场协议的批判并不是一致的。原日本大藏省副相行天丰雄甚至亲自出面驳斥过这一观点。因为在1985年~1990年，借强势日元下的海外投资，日本海外净资产从1万多亿美元上升到3万多亿美元，也就是所谓的“日本之外，还有一个日本”——日元10年升值300%的同时，是生产成本与人力成本的巨幅抬升。为了保持自己的竞争力，大量日企不得不将目光投向海外，这使得日企资本急速外流。升值迅速的日元与日渐焦灼的日美贸易战也助推了这一外流——强势的日元方便日企投资收购海外企业，同时在外建厂可以绕开美国对“日本制造”的制裁。从1985年到1990年，日本企业总共进行了21起500亿日元以上的巨型海外并购案。1989年，三菱公司14亿美元买下的洛克菲勒中心、松下60亿美元买下的美国环球影业、索尼公司以34亿美元买下哥伦比亚影片公司——其中包括漫威如今都没能收回的蜘蛛侠版权；日本人甚至雄心壮志地要将美国买成“日本的第四十一个县”，为什么从洛杉矶洲际酒店70楼看去的城市那么像东京？因为当年日本人买下了这里一半的地产。日本学者伊藤感在《横跨太平洋的愤怒》中写到，一些日本人相信日本会成为下一个\"超级大国\"，政府会带领民众\"终结美国的时代\"。只是这些地产，属于巨企、属于财团、属于投机者、属于外籍富商，但独独不属于日本的人民。2020年《产经新闻》报道，日本海外当地法人的营收在近20年内增长了220%，而按照OECD的统计数据，日本2020年的人均购买力水平仅为3.9万美元，比1990年仅增长了4%。1、三十年不动的收入1900年以后，日本的投资活动戛然而止。银行破产、工厂倒闭、房贷成灾，充斥着不良资产的银行不得不合并重组；剧烈抬升的生产成本让企业大批倒闭，最惨的还是普通人——在倒闭潮中被裁员、一辈子的积蓄在泡沫危机中挥发、还要背上沉重的房贷。而在终身雇佣制和年功序列崩解后，为了保住工作而拼命加班，“社畜”文化虽然不诞生于日本的泡沫危机，但却在这之后得到了固化——接受竞争和生产效率至上的齿轮对自己的压榨，成了日本打工人最无奈的选择。但社会发展的洪流推进着日本人前进，却没能给他们应有的回报。2021年2月，日本厚生劳动省发布的“勤劳统计调查”显示，日本2020年的人均月薪为31万8299日元，约合1.96万元人民币，同比减少1.2%，创下12年以来最大降幅。而这一数字在1990年时是35万元左右，当时的日本人平均年收入是425万日元，以当时的汇率计算，月薪约合1.16万人民币。连续30年“原地踏步”的平均年收入，成了日本最猛烈的“避孕药”。2、难以逆转的老龄化2020年，日本总人口居世界11位，是1950年以来首次跌出前十。从1974到2020年，日本出生率由1.86%降至0.67%，在2008年左右开始陷入连续13年的人口负增长。同时，日本65岁及以上老年人口达3640万，在总人口中所占比例达29.1%。少子老龄化，导致日本陷入严重的劳动力供给不足、劳动生产率增速趋缓，进而使经济增速持续放缓：“1961-2020年日本劳动年龄人口增速、劳动生产率增速与经济走势基本同步变化。伴随1961-1975年日本劳动年龄人口平均增速维持在1.6%的高位、劳动生产率增速达到8.4%峰值，实际GDP平均增速也维持在7.7%的高位；1976-1988年劳动年龄人口、劳动生产率分别维持0.9%、3.7%的低速增长，实际GDP增速也降至4.4%；1989-2020年劳动年龄人口、劳动生产率增速分别从0.9%、4.4%大幅降至-0.8%、1.1%，实际GDP增速从5.4%降至-4.4%。”在劳动人口下降，税收不断减少的情况下，需要支出的养老金等费用却在急速扩大，自1990年起，依附养老金生活的人数已经是纳税人的5倍。2004年日本启动了养老金改革，每年以0.354%的涨幅提高税收，到2017年纳税人缴纳的养老金已占到个人年收入的18.3%，成了日本民众沉重的负担。日本人类发展指数的排名（测量人均GDP，教育，以及医疗），则从1990年的世界第一掉落至2020年的世界第十九。同时，日本年轻人因预期收入下降而形成的生活态度消极、物质欲望低下、缺乏奋斗动力的风气，由此产生“蛰居族”。根据日本厚生劳动省定义，蛰居族为持续6个月以上待在家里不出门，几乎和外界断绝联系的人群，根据日本内阁府《生活状况相关调查》数据，15-39岁、40-64岁人口蛰居族分别达54.1、61.3万人。老年人的消费和购房需求远低于年轻人，年轻人又严重缺乏消费欲望，使得总消费难以大幅提升，日本陷入“低欲望社会”。3、终身QE，却始终乏力2021年，日本以49374亿美元的GDP总量跌下“5字头”，但依旧是傲视欧洲，名列世界第三大经济体的经济大国，看起来似乎并不差。但实际上，日本1995年GDP就已经达到了5.55万亿美元，当时日本GDP与美国GDP的比率是71.34%，2021年，这个比率变成了21.46%。与过往的辉煌相比，如今的日本确实有些困窘。同时，日本的宏观杠杆率也在全球领先。国际清算银行（BIS）最新数据显示，2021 年二季度末，各国宏观杠杆率中美国为286.2%、欧元区为284.3%，而日本为416.5%。庞大的债务规模来源于日本数十年的量化宽松。量化宽松，是日本在融领域的一个创新。1998年，日本央行本央行第一次开始实行零利率和量化宽松政策，即通过对通货供应量的控制来调节经济活动。2013年，日本央行行长黑田东彦推出提振通胀的货币政策刺激计划。从2013年开始，日元兑美元持续贬值，出口实现了较大幅度增长；同时日本基准利率一路下行，十年期国债利率在2016年甚至下降至负数。同时日本央行开始大规模购入ETF(交易所交易基金)，年均ETF购买规模接近4万亿日元，到2021年，日本央行持有股票占股票ETF的80%以上，占东京证券交易所总市值的5%以上。虽然日经225指数从2012年的八千点附近，一路走强，在2021年2月甚至突破了三万点大关，但这似乎仍然是一场镜花水月的泡沫化繁荣，因为日本央行注入的巨量基础货币既没有拉高通胀率，也没有拉动经济增长。经济结构上，日本除核心基础原材料依然保持壁垒优势，其他产业几乎都在裹足不前。汽车、造船、机床、电子产业的市场都在被美、中、韩等国瓜分，新兴产业上更是少有建树。目前日本独角兽企业数量仅6家，大幅落后于美、中、印、英、德、的554、180、64、43、26家，且估值均小于20亿美元。同时，日本的债务急剧扩张，截至2021年12月底，由国债、借款及政府短期证券构成的日本国家债务达到1218.4万亿日元，日本国民人均负债约为971万日元，约合人民币53万4573元。但在美、英、欧等央行均已开始紧缩步伐的当下，日本央行却仍旧未改变宽松的货币政策。“逆市”宽松、无限量印钞、日元连跌日元的连跌始于3月份。在3月美联储加息落地，并释放后续将加大加息幅度和加快缩表的信号后，英、欧均开始加速收紧货币政策，但日本央行却反其道而行之，坚持维持量化宽松政策。3 月 28 日，日本央行发布新闻稿宣布，将在3月 29-31 日间，发动抑制利率上升的“连续性指定价格市场操作”措施，即以指定的利率，无限量从民间金融机构手中收购公债。当天，日元汇率重挫1.38％。4月20日，不到一个月的时间内日本央行又宣布无限量购买10年期国债，以捍卫10年期日本国债0.25%的收益率上限，再度推动了日元的贬值。有专家认为，由于日元贬值有利于日本以出口为导向的经济，日本央行一直将宽松的货币环境作为提振市场预期的重要手段，尤其是在刚刚进入新财年的当下，日本央行更难有可能收紧货币政策。但宽松能挽救日本经济吗？实际上，日本贸易结构并不稳定，自安倍政府上台推出无限刺激政策后，出口总额在2012~2015年连续下降，仅2016、2017年两年保持了贸易顺差状态。近期全球原油和原材料价格飙升，日元贬值更是抬高了日本企业的成本，拓宽了输入型通胀的渠道。同时，根据OECD发布的“附加值贸易统计”数据显示，日本国内创造的附加值已经从1995年的94％降至2018年的83％，降低了11％，日本相关高附加值产品和服务已经越来越难抵消其不断提升的生产成本。唯一得益的，是日本本土的投机者们，随着美联储大幅落地，美债收益率持续飙涨，美日国债利差已经越来越大，于是本土的投机者们开始大规模沽空日元，借日元买美债的套利。对于老百姓来说呢？物价提升导致生活成本上升、消费力削弱，“失落的三十年”似乎又要延期——被日本央行认定“有利于经济”的日元贬值，多年来从未有效提振过日本的经济增长，反而让日本经济十数年来无法从大规模金融缓和政策中脱出。三十年前，时任央行行长三重野康告诫政府：一个国家绝对不能靠吹经济泡沫生存，否则将是国家的大害。于是在他上台不久后日本就实行了紧缩性的货币政策，大幅度提高了贷款利率，主动刺破泡沫。这场硬着陆让日本陷入了数十年的萧条，却也常被后人视为“壮士断腕”的果决。只是前车已覆，后未知更。三十年过去，日本似乎还是那个日本。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2537,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9079771648,"gmtCreate":1657244781084,"gmtModify":1676535978270,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9079771648","repostId":"1154580307","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9079135963,"gmtCreate":1657156686552,"gmtModify":1676535960636,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9079135963","repostId":"1177613805","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177613805","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657148501,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177613805?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-07 07:01","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"An article summarizes the important highlights of the minutes of the overnight Fed meeting!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177613805","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：6月会上美联储官员认为，7月会议可能适合加息75个基点或50个基点；通胀降至2%需要时间，加息可能导致一段时间经济放缓，但充分就业的关键是降通胀；目前有高通胀根深蒂固的风险，担心5月CPI暗示通","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: At the June meeting, Fed officials believe that the July meeting may be suitable for a rate hike of 75 basis points or 50 basis points; It will take time for inflation to drop to 2%, and rate hike may lead to a period of economic slowdown, but the key to full employment is to reduce inflation; At present, there is a deep-rooted risk of high inflation, and there is concern that the May CPI suggests that inflation will last longer than previously expected; If inflation expectations get out of control, reducing inflation will pay a higher price. Minutes of the meeting released on Wednesday, July 6, Eastern Time showed that at the June monetary policy meeting, Federal Reserve officials admitted that rate hike may lead to a slowdown in economic growth, but believed that it may take a longer rate hike to prevent high inflation from becoming entrenched. Because the outlook for inflation has deteriorated, interest rates need to be raised to restrictive levels that deliberately slow down the economy.</p><p>At the same time, the minutes confirmed that the Fed will discuss at this month's meeting whether to continue the rate hike by 75 basis points or slow it down to 50 basis points.</p><p>According to media comments, some investors believe that the hawkish stance reiterated by the Federal Reserve at its June meeting is outdated, considering that recent data shows that economic growth is slightly slower. This pushed U.S. stocks higher during the session, and the three major indexes that turned down more than once during the session completely got rid of the decline.</p><p>July meeting to consider whether to rate hike another 75 basis points</p><p>The Federal Reserve's June meeting decided on a 75 basis point rate hike, the strongest rate hike in more than 27 years. The minutes of this meeting showed that almost all Fed policymakers agreed to June because the labor market supply is very tight, inflation is much higher than the inflation target of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee FOMC of 2%, and the recent inflation outlook has deteriorated since the May Fed meeting. rate hike was 75 basis points, and only one voted against rate hike 50 basis points.</p><p>When discussing possible policy actions at future meetings, the participating officials still expect that it is appropriate to continue the rate hike in the future. The minutes specifically mentioned:</p><p>Participants decided that the next meeting (Wall Street News Note: That is<b>July meeting</b>）<b>Could fit rate hike 75 basis points or 50 basis points</b>。<b>Attendees</b>It is agreed that the economic outlook guarantees a restrictive stance on (monetary) policy. And they<b>Recognize that if high inflationary pressures persist, the stance may even be more restrictive</b>(even more restrictive). It will take time for inflation to fall to 2% rate hike could lead to a period of economic slowdown</p><p>The minutes showed that at the June meeting, Fed policymakers predicted that it would take time to reduce inflation, and that lowering inflation would come at a price of possible slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>Participants believe that the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China's epidemic prevention and other factors that restrict the supply environment will affect the inflation outlook, and it may take some time for inflation to fall back to the Fed's target. Participants also determined that maintaining a strong labor market in the process of reducing inflation to 2% will depend on many factors affecting supply and demand. Participants recognized that firm policies could slow economic growth for some time, but they expected that bringing inflation back to 2% was the key to achieving sustained full employment. There are deep-rooted risks of high inflation, concerns that May CPI suggests inflation lasts longer than previously expected</p><p>According to the minutes, Fed policymakers at the meeting believed that since inflation is much higher than the Fed's target level, the Fed needs to change to a restrictive policy stance to achieve the dual goals of full employment and price stability. Moreover, from a risk management perspective, because once inflation is higher than expected, the Fed can be in a better position to strengthen its restrictive efforts.</p><p>many participants judged that,<b>Now the big risk for the (FOMC) committee is</b>，<b>If the public begins to doubt whether the Committee can ensure its determination to adjust its policy stance, high inflation may become deeply ingrained.</b>In this regard, participants stressed that appropriately firm monetary policy, coupled with clear and effective communication, are essential to restoring price stability. In terms of inflation, Fed officials at the meeting pointed out that inflation is still too high and continues to be well above the long-term target of 2%.</p><p>Attendees<b>worry</b>，<b>May CPI data suggests inflationary pressures have not shown signs of abating</b>。 Many people (a number of) treat this as<b>Reinforces the view that inflation will be more persistent than they previously expected</b>。 Inflation has upside risks such as rising commodity prices. If inflation expectations get out of control, inflation will pay a higher price</p><p>When assessing the economy, Fed officials attending the meeting emphasized that they are very concerned about inflation risks and closely monitor inflation and developments related to inflation expectations.</p><p>Most participants believed that the risk of inflation was on the upside side, citing a variety of related risks, including ongoing supply bottlenecks and rising energy and commodity prices. Participants determined that the uncertainty of economic growth in the next few years is high.</p><p>Most participants assessed that the outlook for economic growth has downside risks. The downside risks include that further tightening of the financial environment will have a greater negative impact on economic activities than expected, and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and China's epidemic prevention on economic growth. The impact exceeded expectations.</p><p>On inflation expectations, the minutes showed that,</p><p>While indicators of long-term inflation expectations from household surveys, professional forecasters and market participants are generally consistent with the FOMC Committee's long-term inflation target of 2%,<b>Many participants are worried that long-term inflation expectations may begin to rise to levels that are not in line with the 2% target. These participants pointed out that if inflation expectations get out of control, it will cost more to let inflation fall back to the FOMC target</b>。 Market reaction</p><p>After the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting were released at midday, U.S. stocks first fell back and then soon rose in the short term. The three major U.S. stock indexes all rose intraday.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7d417276ecc91e848c333fe109e392e\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The US Dollar Index fluctuated upward, breaking through 107.00 in the short term and then quickly returning to 107.00, approaching the high since December 2002 set by US stocks approaching 107.30 in early trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0996cbbf2789acffe0ee8b062ca07b1e\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield maintained its upward trend. After the minutes were released, it stood at 2.90%. It once rose above 2.92% to set a new daily high. The intraday increase exceeded 10 basis points, which was higher than the intraday test of 2.75% in European stocks on Wednesday. It has rebounded by about 17 basis points from a low in more than one month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fdc9bfee7abd837e8a41feed40e5761\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>An article summarizes the important highlights of the minutes of the overnight Fed meeting!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAn article summarizes the important highlights of the minutes of the overnight Fed meeting!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-07 07:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: At the June meeting, Fed officials believe that the July meeting may be suitable for a rate hike of 75 basis points or 50 basis points; It will take time for inflation to drop to 2%, and rate hike may lead to a period of economic slowdown, but the key to full employment is to reduce inflation; At present, there is a deep-rooted risk of high inflation, and there is concern that the May CPI suggests that inflation will last longer than previously expected; If inflation expectations get out of control, reducing inflation will pay a higher price. Minutes of the meeting released on Wednesday, July 6, Eastern Time showed that at the June monetary policy meeting, Federal Reserve officials admitted that rate hike may lead to a slowdown in economic growth, but believed that it may take a longer rate hike to prevent high inflation from becoming entrenched. Because the outlook for inflation has deteriorated, interest rates need to be raised to restrictive levels that deliberately slow down the economy.</p><p>At the same time, the minutes confirmed that the Fed will discuss at this month's meeting whether to continue the rate hike by 75 basis points or slow it down to 50 basis points.</p><p>According to media comments, some investors believe that the hawkish stance reiterated by the Federal Reserve at its June meeting is outdated, considering that recent data shows that economic growth is slightly slower. This pushed U.S. stocks higher during the session, and the three major indexes that turned down more than once during the session completely got rid of the decline.</p><p>July meeting to consider whether to rate hike another 75 basis points</p><p>The Federal Reserve's June meeting decided on a 75 basis point rate hike, the strongest rate hike in more than 27 years. The minutes of this meeting showed that almost all Fed policymakers agreed to June because the labor market supply is very tight, inflation is much higher than the inflation target of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee FOMC of 2%, and the recent inflation outlook has deteriorated since the May Fed meeting. rate hike was 75 basis points, and only one voted against rate hike 50 basis points.</p><p>When discussing possible policy actions at future meetings, the participating officials still expect that it is appropriate to continue the rate hike in the future. The minutes specifically mentioned:</p><p>Participants decided that the next meeting (Wall Street News Note: That is<b>July meeting</b>）<b>Could fit rate hike 75 basis points or 50 basis points</b>。<b>Attendees</b>It is agreed that the economic outlook guarantees a restrictive stance on (monetary) policy. And they<b>Recognize that if high inflationary pressures persist, the stance may even be more restrictive</b>(even more restrictive). It will take time for inflation to fall to 2% rate hike could lead to a period of economic slowdown</p><p>The minutes showed that at the June meeting, Fed policymakers predicted that it would take time to reduce inflation, and that lowering inflation would come at a price of possible slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>Participants believe that the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China's epidemic prevention and other factors that restrict the supply environment will affect the inflation outlook, and it may take some time for inflation to fall back to the Fed's target. Participants also determined that maintaining a strong labor market in the process of reducing inflation to 2% will depend on many factors affecting supply and demand. Participants recognized that firm policies could slow economic growth for some time, but they expected that bringing inflation back to 2% was the key to achieving sustained full employment. There are deep-rooted risks of high inflation, concerns that May CPI suggests inflation lasts longer than previously expected</p><p>According to the minutes, Fed policymakers at the meeting believed that since inflation is much higher than the Fed's target level, the Fed needs to change to a restrictive policy stance to achieve the dual goals of full employment and price stability. Moreover, from a risk management perspective, because once inflation is higher than expected, the Fed can be in a better position to strengthen its restrictive efforts.</p><p>many participants judged that,<b>Now the big risk for the (FOMC) committee is</b>，<b>If the public begins to doubt whether the Committee can ensure its determination to adjust its policy stance, high inflation may become deeply ingrained.</b>In this regard, participants stressed that appropriately firm monetary policy, coupled with clear and effective communication, are essential to restoring price stability. In terms of inflation, Fed officials at the meeting pointed out that inflation is still too high and continues to be well above the long-term target of 2%.</p><p>Attendees<b>worry</b>，<b>May CPI data suggests inflationary pressures have not shown signs of abating</b>。 Many people (a number of) treat this as<b>Reinforces the view that inflation will be more persistent than they previously expected</b>。 Inflation has upside risks such as rising commodity prices. If inflation expectations get out of control, inflation will pay a higher price</p><p>When assessing the economy, Fed officials attending the meeting emphasized that they are very concerned about inflation risks and closely monitor inflation and developments related to inflation expectations.</p><p>Most participants believed that the risk of inflation was on the upside side, citing a variety of related risks, including ongoing supply bottlenecks and rising energy and commodity prices. Participants determined that the uncertainty of economic growth in the next few years is high.</p><p>Most participants assessed that the outlook for economic growth has downside risks. The downside risks include that further tightening of the financial environment will have a greater negative impact on economic activities than expected, and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and China's epidemic prevention on economic growth. The impact exceeded expectations.</p><p>On inflation expectations, the minutes showed that,</p><p>While indicators of long-term inflation expectations from household surveys, professional forecasters and market participants are generally consistent with the FOMC Committee's long-term inflation target of 2%,<b>Many participants are worried that long-term inflation expectations may begin to rise to levels that are not in line with the 2% target. These participants pointed out that if inflation expectations get out of control, it will cost more to let inflation fall back to the FOMC target</b>。 Market reaction</p><p>After the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting were released at midday, U.S. stocks first fell back and then soon rose in the short term. The three major U.S. stock indexes all rose intraday.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7d417276ecc91e848c333fe109e392e\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The US Dollar Index fluctuated upward, breaking through 107.00 in the short term and then quickly returning to 107.00, approaching the high since December 2002 set by US stocks approaching 107.30 in early trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0996cbbf2789acffe0ee8b062ca07b1e\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield maintained its upward trend. After the minutes were released, it stood at 2.90%. It once rose above 2.92% to set a new daily high. The intraday increase exceeded 10 basis points, which was higher than the intraday test of 2.75% in European stocks on Wednesday. It has rebounded by about 17 basis points from a low in more than one month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fdc9bfee7abd837e8a41feed40e5761\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664052\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/123472eab1159c5e881f8e540a346014","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664052","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1177613805","content_text":"摘要：6月会上美联储官员认为，7月会议可能适合加息75个基点或50个基点；通胀降至2%需要时间，加息可能导致一段时间经济放缓，但充分就业的关键是降通胀；目前有高通胀根深蒂固的风险，担心5月CPI暗示通胀会比之前预期持续得更久；若通胀预期失控，降通胀将付出更高代价。美东时间7月6日周三公布的会议纪要显示，6月货币政策会议上，美联储官员承认加息可能导致经济增长放慢，但认为，要避免高通胀变得根深蒂固，可能需要加息时间持续更久。因为通胀前景已恶化，需要让利率升至刻意让经济放缓的限制性水平。同时纪要确认了，联储将在本月的会议上讨论是继续加息75个基点，还是将幅度放缓到50个基点。媒体评论称，考虑到新近数据显示经济增长略为更加放缓，一些投资者认为，美联储在6月会上重申的鹰派立场已经过时。这推动美股盘中走高，盘中不止一次转跌的三大指数彻底摆脱跌势。7月会议考虑是否再加息75个基点美联储6月会议决定加息75个基点，为逾二十七年最大力度加息。本次会议纪要显示，因为考虑到劳动力市场供应非常紧张、通胀远高于美联储货币政策委员会FOMC的通胀目标2%、近期通胀前景自5月联储会议以来已经恶化，几乎所有联储决策者都同意6月加息75个基点，只有一人因支持加息50个基点而投反对票。在讨论未来几次会议可能采取的政策行动时，与会官员依然预期适合未来继续加息，纪要特别提到：与会者判定，下次会议（华尔街见闻注：即7月会议）可能适合加息75个基点或者50个基点。与会者一致认为，经济前景对（货币）政策步入限制性的立场有保障。而且他们认识到，如果高企的通胀压力持续，立场甚至可能要限制性更强（even more restrictive）。通胀降至2%需要时间 加息可能导致一段时间经济放缓纪要显示，6月会上，美联储决策者预计降低通胀需要时间，而且压低通胀将付出经济增长可能放缓的代价。与会者认为，俄乌冲突、中国防疫和其他限制供应环境的因素将影响通胀前景，让通胀回落到联储目标可能需要一些时间。与会者还判定，在让通胀降至2%的过程中，保持强劲的劳动力市场将取决于很多影响供需的因素。与会者认识到，坚定政策可能让经济增长一段时间内放缓，但他们预计，让通胀回到2%是实现持续充分就业的关键。有高通胀根深蒂固的风险 担心5月CPI暗示通胀比之前预期持续得更久纪要称，与会美联储决策者认为，由于通胀远高于联储目标水平，要实现充分就业和价格稳定的双重目标，美联储需要转变为限制性的政策立场。而且，从风险管理的角度看，因为一旦通胀高于预期，美联储就能处于加强限制性力度的更有利地位。很多（many）与会者判定，现在（FOMC）委员会面临的一大风险是，假如公众开始怀疑委员会能否确保调整政策立场的决心，高企的通胀可能变得根深蒂固。在这方面，与会者强调，适宜地坚定货币政策，加之清晰有效的沟通，都对恢复价格稳定至关重要。在通胀方面，与会联储官员指出，通胀仍旧太高，继续远高于长期目标2%。与会者担心，5月CPI数据暗示，通胀压力还未显示减弱的迹象。多人（a number of）将此视为强化了通胀会比他们之前预期的更持久这一观点。通胀有大宗商品涨价等上行风险 若通胀预期失控 降通胀将付出更高代价在评估经济时，与会美联储官员强调，他们非常关注通胀风险，密切监控通胀以及通胀预期相关的发展变化。大多数与会者认为通胀的风险偏上行，并提到多种相关风险，包括持续的供应瓶颈、能源和大宗商品价格上涨。与会者认定，未来几年经济增长的不确定性很高。大部分与会者评估认为，经济增长的前景有偏下行的风险，下行风险包括，金融环境进一步收紧会对经济活动造成比预期更大的负面影响，以及俄乌冲突和中国防疫对经济增长的影响超出预期。在通胀预期方面，纪要显示，虽然来自家庭调查、专业预测方和市场参与者的长期通胀预期指标总体和FOMC委员会的长期通胀目标2%保持一致，但很多与会者担心，长期通胀预期可能开始上行至不符合2%目标的水平。这些与会者指出，假如通胀预期变得失控，让通胀回落到FOMC目标将付出更高的代价。市场反应午盘时段美联储会议纪要公布后，美股先回落后很快短线拉升，三大美股指盘中齐涨。美元指数震荡上行，短线下破107.00后迅速重上107.00，逼近美股早盘时逼近107.30所创的2002年12月以来高位。基准10年期美国国债收益率保持升势，纪要公布后站上2.90%，一度升破2.92%刷新日高，日内升幅超过10个基点，较周三欧股盘中下测2.75%所创的一个多月来低位回升约17个基点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1969,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9070278186,"gmtCreate":1657070331345,"gmtModify":1676535943875,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9070278186","repostId":"2249531093","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2249531093","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657057020,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2249531093?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-06 05:37","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Foreign media headlines | Oil prices led the decline, commodities plummeted! Recession fears trigger knock-on effects","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2249531093","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"　　由于各国央行的紧缩货币政策和对经济衰退的担忧，大宗商品市场继续上周的行情，呈现下降趋势。　　每盎司黄金价格为1784美元，创2022年1月以来的最低水平，连续第三周下跌。　　当地时间5日，英国卫生大臣赛义德·贾维德和财政大臣里希·苏纳克因对首相约翰逊失去信心而从政府辞职。　　贾维德在社交媒体表示，自己已向首相约翰逊递交辞呈。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. Economic recession fears trigger chain effects, commodities continue their downward trend last week</b><b>2. The British Secretary of Health and Chancellor of the Exchequer resigned because they lost confidence in the Prime Minister</b><b>3. U.S. bonds set off a storm, and the 2-5-year yield curve was once inverted amid recession fears</b><b>4. U.S. WTI crude oil fell 8.2% and fell below the $100 mark</b><b>5. Inflation worsens U.S. coal prices hit record highs amid global energy shortages</b><b>6. \"Sister Wood\": The Fed has panicked and deflation has occurred in the economy</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0ba44941aea6899b18b42d54ee27498\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"342\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Recession fears trigger knock-on effects, commodities continue last week's downward trend</b></p><p>Commodity markets continued last week's trends, showing a downward trend due to tightening monetary policies by central banks and fears of economic recession.</p><p>While global macroeconomic data this week pointed to a slowdown in economic activity, instructions from key central bank officials, indicating the continuation of current monetary policy, also had a negative impact on investors' risk appetite.</p><p>Fears of a global recession also supported demand for the dollar;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">The US Dollar Index</a>It closed last week at 105.1, the highest weekly close since December 2002.</p><p>The price of gold per ounce was $1,784, its lowest level since January 2022, and it fell for the third consecutive week.</p><p>Last week, silver fell 6% and platinum fell 2.2%, its lowest level since July 2020, while palladium rose 4.5%.</p><p>Copper prices hit their lowest level since February 2021 and closed down 4.3% last week. The lead loss was 1.3%, aluminum loss was 0.8%, nickel loss was 1.5% and zinc loss was 12.5%. Copper is losing value after worries of a global economic slowdown mounted. While investors avoided zinc due to limited supply, nickel prices rose as inventories dwindled.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12a2ca7cedc11ebe7e2e2b9509f302ad\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Health Secretary and Chancellor of the Exchequer resign after losing confidence in PM</b></p><p>On the 5th local time, British Health Secretary Sajid Javid and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak resigned from the government because they lost confidence in Prime Minister Johnson.</p><p>Javid said on social media that he had submitted his resignation to Prime Minister Johnson. Javid said that it was a great honor to take on this role, but he regretted that he could no longer continue to work with his conscience.</p><p>In his resignation letter, Sunak said: \"The public expects the government to run the country correctly, competently and conscientiously. I believe these standards are worth fighting for and our country is facing enormous challenges, which is why I am resigning.\"</p><p>On the same day, Prime Minister Johnson publicly apologized for his neglect and appointing Christopher Pincher, deputy whip of the Conservative Party, to a government post.</p><p>Christopher Pincher, the deputy whip of the Conservative Party appointed by Johnson earlier, was exposed to \"salty pig's hand\" and resigned on June 30th. However, Pincher was subsequently exposed to more misconduct, which caused public opinion to question whether Johnson knew his conduct and still entrusted him with an important task.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/514059be8955847da37d6a25e09bd003\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>U.S. bonds set off waves, and the 2-5-year yield curve was once inverted amid recession fears</b></p><p>The craziest trend in the U.S. bond market in years has left traders with no time to enjoy the summer vacation.</p><p>A closely watched gauge of volatility soared to its highest level since the market crashed due to the pandemic in March 2020.</p><p>On the one hand, persistent inflation and the Fed's commitment to tightening policy have caused U.S. debt to suffer its most violent sell-off in at least half a century. On the other hand, the risk of an economic recession has risen, a hidden worry that has been pulling down yield levels as investors use U.S. Treasury Bond as a safe-haven asset.</p><p>The two forces repeatedly saw each other on Tuesday. The yield of the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond once rose by 10 basis points to 2.98% in overseas trading. However, due to the resurgence of economic worries, the yield gain reversed, falling to a minimum of 2.8%.</p><p>At one point intraday, the 2-year yield was slightly above the 10-year yield for the first time since mid-June and above the 5-year yield for the first time since March 2020. This curve inversion indicates that the market believes that the economic slowdown will eventually lead to a downward trend in short-term interest rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93fee98819f0f2a3ddb6fd8d84b501ed\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>U.S. WTI crude oil plunged 8.2% and fell below the $100 mark</b></p><p>In the early morning of the 6th Beijing time, crude oil futures prices closed sharply lower on Tuesday. U.S. WTI crude oil futures fell below the $100 per barrel mark, the lowest closing price in two months.</p><p>A stronger dollar and concerns that a recession could hurt the outlook for energy demand weighed on oil prices.</p><p>Analysts pointed out that the decline of crude oil futures prices is inevitable, because the negative impact of oil price companies on demand and the economy has become more and more obvious as concerns about sanctions give way to the reality of Russia selling oil to new buyers in Asia, and the crude oil market has repriced.</p><p>The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $8.93, or 8.24%, to close at $99.50 a barrel, the largest drop since mid-March and May 10. The lowest closing price since.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12b08931cd23d4667b9bd6c90fe32c9b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Inflation worsens U.S. coal prices hit record highs amid global energy crunch</b></p><p>U.S. coal prices have risen above record highs amid surging global electricity demand, rising summer temperatures and limited supplies of the most polluting fossil fuels.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">US Energy</a>Illinois Basin coal spot prices surged $190.25 per short ton in the week ending July 1, data released by the Information Administration on Tuesday showed. Central Appalachian coal prices also jumped to $168.05 per short ton.</p><p>The above prices hit the highest record since 2005, exceeding the peak in 2008. Demand for U.S. coal has been boosted by supplies blocked elsewhere.</p><p>The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has disrupted energy markets, with power producers around the world struggling to secure coal and natural gas supplies to keep power generated. However, U.S. suppliers have been closing mines for years and are now struggling to meet soaring consumption demand.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18f1b02017ee06f402c5b5800c4d8014\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>\"Sister Wood\": The Fed has panicked and deflation has occurred in the economy</b></p><p>Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of ARK Invest, said in the latest edition of the In the Know podcast that the Fed raising interest rates so aggressively suggests it has \"panicked.\"</p><p>Wood believes policymakers are more concerned with its historical reputation than the economy. Indicators in the inflation data suggest that \"the Fed is making a big mistake\" and that \"there has been a lot of deflation in the economy.\"</p><p>Wood said last week that the U.S. economy has fallen into recession. Industry veterans believe the Fed will have to take tougher measures to curb inflation. She believes the Fed has flipped the switch on deflation.</p><p>As for the current crypto market, Wood described her stance as \"neutral to positive\" in the short term and said she \"feels much better\" about the crypto industry.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign media headlines | Oil prices led the decline, commodities plummeted! Recession fears trigger knock-on effects</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign media headlines | Oil prices led the decline, commodities plummeted! Recession fears trigger knock-on effects\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-06 05:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. Economic recession fears trigger chain effects, commodities continue their downward trend last week</b><b>2. The British Secretary of Health and Chancellor of the Exchequer resigned because they lost confidence in the Prime Minister</b><b>3. U.S. bonds set off a storm, and the 2-5-year yield curve was once inverted amid recession fears</b><b>4. U.S. WTI crude oil fell 8.2% and fell below the $100 mark</b><b>5. Inflation worsens U.S. coal prices hit record highs amid global energy shortages</b><b>6. \"Sister Wood\": The Fed has panicked and deflation has occurred in the economy</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0ba44941aea6899b18b42d54ee27498\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"342\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Recession fears trigger knock-on effects, commodities continue last week's downward trend</b></p><p>Commodity markets continued last week's trends, showing a downward trend due to tightening monetary policies by central banks and fears of economic recession.</p><p>While global macroeconomic data this week pointed to a slowdown in economic activity, instructions from key central bank officials, indicating the continuation of current monetary policy, also had a negative impact on investors' risk appetite.</p><p>Fears of a global recession also supported demand for the dollar;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">The US Dollar Index</a>It closed last week at 105.1, the highest weekly close since December 2002.</p><p>The price of gold per ounce was $1,784, its lowest level since January 2022, and it fell for the third consecutive week.</p><p>Last week, silver fell 6% and platinum fell 2.2%, its lowest level since July 2020, while palladium rose 4.5%.</p><p>Copper prices hit their lowest level since February 2021 and closed down 4.3% last week. The lead loss was 1.3%, aluminum loss was 0.8%, nickel loss was 1.5% and zinc loss was 12.5%. Copper is losing value after worries of a global economic slowdown mounted. While investors avoided zinc due to limited supply, nickel prices rose as inventories dwindled.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12a2ca7cedc11ebe7e2e2b9509f302ad\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Health Secretary and Chancellor of the Exchequer resign after losing confidence in PM</b></p><p>On the 5th local time, British Health Secretary Sajid Javid and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak resigned from the government because they lost confidence in Prime Minister Johnson.</p><p>Javid said on social media that he had submitted his resignation to Prime Minister Johnson. Javid said that it was a great honor to take on this role, but he regretted that he could no longer continue to work with his conscience.</p><p>In his resignation letter, Sunak said: \"The public expects the government to run the country correctly, competently and conscientiously. I believe these standards are worth fighting for and our country is facing enormous challenges, which is why I am resigning.\"</p><p>On the same day, Prime Minister Johnson publicly apologized for his neglect and appointing Christopher Pincher, deputy whip of the Conservative Party, to a government post.</p><p>Christopher Pincher, the deputy whip of the Conservative Party appointed by Johnson earlier, was exposed to \"salty pig's hand\" and resigned on June 30th. However, Pincher was subsequently exposed to more misconduct, which caused public opinion to question whether Johnson knew his conduct and still entrusted him with an important task.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/514059be8955847da37d6a25e09bd003\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>U.S. bonds set off waves, and the 2-5-year yield curve was once inverted amid recession fears</b></p><p>The craziest trend in the U.S. bond market in years has left traders with no time to enjoy the summer vacation.</p><p>A closely watched gauge of volatility soared to its highest level since the market crashed due to the pandemic in March 2020.</p><p>On the one hand, persistent inflation and the Fed's commitment to tightening policy have caused U.S. debt to suffer its most violent sell-off in at least half a century. On the other hand, the risk of an economic recession has risen, a hidden worry that has been pulling down yield levels as investors use U.S. Treasury Bond as a safe-haven asset.</p><p>The two forces repeatedly saw each other on Tuesday. The yield of the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond once rose by 10 basis points to 2.98% in overseas trading. However, due to the resurgence of economic worries, the yield gain reversed, falling to a minimum of 2.8%.</p><p>At one point intraday, the 2-year yield was slightly above the 10-year yield for the first time since mid-June and above the 5-year yield for the first time since March 2020. This curve inversion indicates that the market believes that the economic slowdown will eventually lead to a downward trend in short-term interest rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93fee98819f0f2a3ddb6fd8d84b501ed\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>U.S. WTI crude oil plunged 8.2% and fell below the $100 mark</b></p><p>In the early morning of the 6th Beijing time, crude oil futures prices closed sharply lower on Tuesday. U.S. WTI crude oil futures fell below the $100 per barrel mark, the lowest closing price in two months.</p><p>A stronger dollar and concerns that a recession could hurt the outlook for energy demand weighed on oil prices.</p><p>Analysts pointed out that the decline of crude oil futures prices is inevitable, because the negative impact of oil price companies on demand and the economy has become more and more obvious as concerns about sanctions give way to the reality of Russia selling oil to new buyers in Asia, and the crude oil market has repriced.</p><p>The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $8.93, or 8.24%, to close at $99.50 a barrel, the largest drop since mid-March and May 10. The lowest closing price since.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12b08931cd23d4667b9bd6c90fe32c9b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Inflation worsens U.S. coal prices hit record highs amid global energy crunch</b></p><p>U.S. coal prices have risen above record highs amid surging global electricity demand, rising summer temperatures and limited supplies of the most polluting fossil fuels.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">US Energy</a>Illinois Basin coal spot prices surged $190.25 per short ton in the week ending July 1, data released by the Information Administration on Tuesday showed. Central Appalachian coal prices also jumped to $168.05 per short ton.</p><p>The above prices hit the highest record since 2005, exceeding the peak in 2008. Demand for U.S. coal has been boosted by supplies blocked elsewhere.</p><p>The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has disrupted energy markets, with power producers around the world struggling to secure coal and natural gas supplies to keep power generated. However, U.S. suppliers have been closing mines for years and are now struggling to meet soaring consumption demand.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18f1b02017ee06f402c5b5800c4d8014\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>\"Sister Wood\": The Fed has panicked and deflation has occurred in the economy</b></p><p>Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of ARK Invest, said in the latest edition of the In the Know podcast that the Fed raising interest rates so aggressively suggests it has \"panicked.\"</p><p>Wood believes policymakers are more concerned with its historical reputation than the economy. Indicators in the inflation data suggest that \"the Fed is making a big mistake\" and that \"there has been a lot of deflation in the economy.\"</p><p>Wood said last week that the U.S. economy has fallen into recession. Industry veterans believe the Fed will have to take tougher measures to curb inflation. She believes the Fed has flipped the switch on deflation.</p><p>As for the current crypto market, Wood described her stance as \"neutral to positive\" in the short term and said she \"feels much better\" about the crypto industry.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-07-06/doc-imizirav2091453.shtml?finpagefr=p_115\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18f1b02017ee06f402c5b5800c4d8014","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-07-06/doc-imizirav2091453.shtml?finpagefr=p_115","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2249531093","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、经济衰退担忧引发连锁效应 大宗商品继续上周下行大势2、英国卫生大臣和财政大臣因对首相失去信心而辞职3、美债掀起惊涛 衰退担忧下2-5年期收益率曲线一度倒挂4、美国WTI原油重挫8.2% 跌破100美元关口5、通胀雪上加霜 美国煤炭价格在全球能源紧缺中创下历史新高6、“木头姐”：美联储已经慌了 经济中已出现通缩经济衰退担忧引发连锁效应 大宗商品继续上周下行大势由于各国央行的紧缩货币政策和对经济衰退的担忧，大宗商品市场继续上周的行情，呈现下降趋势。虽然本周全球宏观经济数据表明经济活动放缓，但央行主要官员发出的指示，表明继续实施当前的货币政策，也对投资者的风险偏好产生了负面影响。对全球衰退的担忧也支撑了对美元的需求；美元指数上周收于105.1点，为2002年12月以来的最高周收盘价。每盎司黄金价格为1784美元，创2022年1月以来的最低水平，连续第三周下跌。上周，白银下跌6%，铂金下跌2.2%，为2020年7月以来的最低水平，而钯金上涨4.5%。铜价创下2021年2月份以来的最低水平，上周收盘下跌4.3%。铅损失1.3%，铝损失0.8%，镍损失1.5%，锌损失12.5%。对全球经济放缓的担忧加剧后，铜正在贬值。虽然投资者因供应有限而避开锌，但镍价格随着库存的减少而上涨。英国卫生大臣和财政大臣因对首相失去信心而辞职当地时间5日，英国卫生大臣赛义德·贾维德和财政大臣里希·苏纳克因对首相约翰逊失去信心而从政府辞职。贾维德在社交媒体表示，自己已向首相约翰逊递交辞呈。贾维德称，担任这个角色是一种巨大的荣幸，但自己很遗憾不能再凭良心继续工作下去。苏纳克在辞呈中表示：“公众期望政府能够正确、称职和认真地管理国家。我相信这些标准值得为之奋斗，而我们的国家正面临着巨大的挑战，这就是我辞职的原因。”当天，首相约翰逊为自己用人不察、任命保守党副党鞭克里斯托弗·平彻担任政府职务而公开道歉。此前由约翰逊任命的保守党副党鞭克里斯托弗·平彻被曝“咸猪手”，并于6月30日辞职。然而，平彻后续被曝出更多不端行为，引发舆论对约翰逊是否明知其品行仍委以重任的质疑。美债掀起惊涛 衰退担忧下2-5年期收益率曲线一度倒挂美债市场多年来最疯狂的走势令交易员们无暇享受暑假。一个备受关注的的波动率指标飙升至2020年3月市场因为疫情而崩盘以来的最高水平。一方面，持续存在的通胀和美联储紧缩政策承诺令美债遭遇至少半个世纪以来最猛烈的抛售，另一方面，经济衰退的风险上升，在投资者将美国国债作为避险资产时，这个隐忧一直在下拉收益率水平。两股力量周二反复拉锯， 基准10年期美国国债收益率在海外交易中一度上涨10个基点至2.98%，但后来由于经济忧虑再度涌现，收益率涨势逆转，最低跌到了2.8%。盘中，2年期收益率一度自6月中旬以来首次略高于10年期收益率，并且自2020年3月以来首次高于5年期收益率。这种曲线倒挂现象表明市场认为经济放缓最终会导致短期利率下行。美国WTI原油重挫8.2% 跌破100美元关口北京时间6日凌晨，原油期货价格周二大幅收跌，美国WTI原油期货跌破每桶100美元关口，创两个月来的最低收盘价。美元走强以及对经济衰退可能损害能源需求前景的担忧情绪令油价承压。分析师指出，原油期货价格的下跌不可避免，因为在对制裁的担忧让位于俄罗斯向亚洲新买家出售石油的现实，原油市场重新定价，油价企对需求和经济的负面影响已变得越来越明显。纽约商品交易所8月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格收跌8.93美元，跌幅为8.24%，报收于每桶99.50美元，创3月中旬以来最大跌幅，以及5月10日以来的最低收盘价。通胀雪上加霜 美国煤炭价格在全球能源紧缺中创下历史新高全球电力需求大幅走高、夏季气温上升加之污染最重的化石燃料供应有限，美国煤炭价格涨破历史最高水平。美国能源信息管理局周二发布的数据显示，截至7月1日当周，伊利诺伊盆地煤炭现货价格飙升每短吨190.25美元。阿巴拉契亚中部煤价也跃升至每短吨168.05美元。上述价格创出2005年以来的最高纪录，超过了2008年的峰值。其他地区的供应受阻推高了对美国煤炭的需求。俄乌冲突扰乱了能源市场，世界各地的电力生产商都在竭力保障煤和天然气供应以保持发电。然而美国供应商多年来一直在关闭矿山，现在难以满足飙升的消耗需求。“木头姐”：美联储已经慌了 经济中已出现通缩ARK Invest创始人兼首席执行官Cathie Wood在最新一期的In the Know播客中表示，美联储如此激进地提高利率表明其已经“惊慌失措”。Wood认为，政策制定者更关心其历史声誉而不是经济。通胀数据中的指标表明“美联储正在犯一个大错误”，“经济中已经出现了很多通缩”。Wood曾在上周表示，美国经济已经陷入衰退。行业资深人士认为，美联储将不得不采取更严厉的措施来遏制通胀。她相信，美联储已经触动了通缩的开关。至于当前的加密货币市场，Wood将她的立场描述为短期内“中性至正面”，并表示对加密货币行业“感觉好多了”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2899,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9070016652,"gmtCreate":1656983485676,"gmtModify":1676535926692,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9070016652","repostId":"2249419340","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9047016978,"gmtCreate":1656827322694,"gmtModify":1676535901157,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9047016978","repostId":"2248136877","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9044616288,"gmtCreate":1656742454744,"gmtModify":1676535888492,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9044616288","repostId":"1164878609","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164878609","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1656718507,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164878609?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-02 07:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | U.S. stocks got off to a thrilling start in the second half of the year, and most popular Chinese concept stocks rose","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164878609","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：美股下半年首日迎来上涨，半导体板块逆势下跌；热门中概股大多走高，新能源汽车股高开低走；已故苹果联合创始人乔布斯被追授美国总统自由勋章；370亿美元大采购！三大航企齐出手，拟购入近300架空客飞机","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: U.S. stocks ushered in a rise on the first day of the second half of the year, while the semiconductor sector bucked the trend and fell; Most of the popular Chinese concept stocks rose, and new energy auto stocks opened higher and moved lower; deceased<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Co-founder Jobs was posthumously awarded the US Presidential Medal of Freedom; $37 billion purchase! The three major airlines have made concerted efforts to purchase nearly 300 Airbus aircraft.<b>Overseas Market</b></p><p><b>Closing: U.S. stocks rose on the first day of the second half of the year, while the semiconductor sector bucked the trend and fell</b></p><p>On the first trading day of the second half of the year, US stocks ushered in a rise. Although the intraday trend was tortuous, the three major indexes finally closed up tenaciously in the shock. As of the close, the Dow rose 321.83 points, or 1.05%, to 31097.26 points; The Nasdaq rose 99.11 points, or 0.90%, to 11127.85 points; The S&P 500 rose 39.95 points, or 1.06%, to 3825.33 points.</p><p>Among big tech stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Up more than 3%, Apple,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Up more than 1%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Up 1.07%, Meta fell 0.76%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>It rose 2.9%.</p><p>The chip sector has been hit hard, with several chipmakers saying that rising inflation and a cooling economy are reducing consumer and business spending, and global chip demand will weaken.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ONNN\">Ansenmei</a>Semiconductors fell nearly 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>Fell 5.81%, Dutch chipmaker<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>Fell 5.47%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STM\">STMicroelectronics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>Fell more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>It fell nearly 3%.</p><p><b>Most of the popular Chinese concept stocks rose, while new energy auto stocks opened higher and moved lower</b></p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 1.26%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Betta fish</a>It rose 5% and JD.com rose 2.7%. Among the new car-making forces,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Down 4.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Down 1.59%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>It fell 1.66%.</p><p><b>European stocks closed mixed, with Germany's DAX30 index up 0.25%</b></p><p>The main European stock indexes closed mixed, with the German DAX30 index rising 0.25%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.02%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.14%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell 0.17%.</p><p><b>WTI crude closed 2.5% higher on Friday in New York and was up 0.8% for the week</b></p><p>WTI crude oil futures for August closed up 2.52% at $108.43 a barrel, breaking off the low since last Thursday hit on Thursday; Brent crude oil futures for September closed up 2.38% at $111.63 a barrel, smoothing out most of Thursday's 3% loss. U.S. oil rose 0.8% this week, ending a two-week losing streak. Brent oil, which had zero gains and losses last week, rose 2.3%. In June, U.S. oil fell 7.8%, and Brent oil fell 6.5%, ending a six-month winning streak, but both rose in the second quarter and the first half of the year.</p><p><b>New York gold futures once fell below $1,800</b></p><p>New York gold futures prices closed lower on Friday, falling below the key $1,800 mark during the session. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $5.80, or 0.3%, to close at $1,801.50 an ounce, the lowest closing price since February. In intraday trading on Friday, the futures price once fell below $1,800, falling as low as $1,783.40. Silver futures for September delivery fell 68 cents, or 3.4%, to settle at $19.667 an ounce, their lowest close since July 2020.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><b>Leading indicators show US economy is on the verge, recession is fast approaching</b></p><p>By now, a recession seems to be a consensus. In fact, the Leading Indicator (LEI) of the Institute of Large Enterprises suggests that a recession in the United States may be rapidly approaching. This leading indicator includes many market and economic indicators, such as the number of initial jobless claims, manufacturing surveys and stock prices. Matt Bush, an economist at Guggenheim, found that four consecutive declines in the monthly LEI generally indicate that the U.S. economy has fallen into a recession. As of May, LEI has fallen for three consecutive months. Given the decline in U.S. stocks and the decline in new ISM manufacturing orders, it is highly likely that LEI will fall again in June. The sign doesn't bode well for the attempt to make the U.S. economy soft landing.</p><p><b>The Fed's July rate hike of 75 basis points is almost certain: senior dovish official, San Francisco Fed president joins support</b></p><p>San Francisco Fed President Daly, who has always been regarded as a dove in the Federal Reserve, said that U.S. inflation is too high and the Fed must maintain the path of monetary policy tightening unchanged. \"I support further Fed rate hike by 75 basis points in July\".</p><p><b>U.S. ISM manufacturing hit a two-year low in June, with new orders and employment indexes shrinking</b></p><p>On Friday, data released by ISM showed that the ISM manufacturing industry in the United States hit a two-year low in June, dragged down by weak new orders and contraction. The inventory index is near its highest level since 2010. The supplier delivery, order backlog index slipped, indicating that supply chain and capacity constraints appear to be easing. The ISM data is further evidence that demand for U.S. goods is slowing.</p><p><b>The euro zone's reconciled CPI increased by 8.6% year-on-year in June, higher than expected, and continued to hit a record high</b></p><p>The euro zone's reconciled CPI in June was 8.6% year-on-year, expected 8.5%, and the previous value was 8.1%; The initial value of the core harmonized CPI was 3.7% year-on-year, expected to be 3.9%, and the previous value was 3.8%.</p><p><b>OPEC crude oil production falls for second consecutive month in June</b></p><p>According to media surveys, OPEC production fell by 120,000 barrels per day in June. In addition to the UAE's overfulfillment, Nigeria's daily production fell by 100,000 barrels in June, Saudi Arabia's daily production was about 210,000 barrels below its target quota, and Kuwait also failed to meet its target, with daily production falling by 50,000 barrels.</p><p><b>Several Northern Ireland gas and electricity supply giants announce sharp price increases</b></p><p>Gas suppliers SSE Airtricity and Firmus Energy increased gas and electricity prices by 42.7% and 24.5% respectively, while power suppliers Power NI and Click Energy increased gas and electricity prices by 27.5% and 11% respectively. According to the report, the supplier's own submission is attributed to the high wholesale energy price.</p><p><b>Venice announces entry fee for tourists from January 2023</b></p><p>Venturini, director of culture of the Italian city of Venice, announced that from January 16, 2023, tourists who arrive and leave the center of Venice and the islands on the same day will be levied an entry fee. At that time, passengers who don't stay in Venice will pay 3 euros to 10 euros for entry according to the reservation, and offenders will be fined 50 euros to 300 euros. Local residents of Venice, students, commuters, relatives and residents of Veneto do not need to pay the entry fee.</p><p><b>Latest poll shows 71% of Americans don't want Biden to run for President *</b></p><p>According to The Hill, a recent Harvard University CAPS-Harris poll shows that 71% of respondents believe Biden should not run for a second term as president. Of respondents who thought Biden shouldn't stay in the race, 45% said Biden was a bad president, about a third said it was because he was too old, and about a quarter said it was time for a change. In addition, 61% of respondents believe that former President Trump should not run again in 2024.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Lowering U.S. economic growth forecast for mid-year</b></p><p>Economists at JPMorgan Chase cut their mid-year U.S. economic growth forecast as most of the U.S. data released this week showed weakness, most notably a slowdown in consumer spending. The bank lowered its second-quarter U.S. GDP forecast to 1% from the previous 2.5% and its third-quarter GDP forecast to 1% from 2%.</p><p><b>Thousands of U.S. flights delayed or cancelled due to worker shortages and bad weather</b></p><p>As of 10:30 a.m. EST on July 1st, more than 1,200 flights in and out of or stopping in the United States had been delayed, and another 238 flights had been cancelled. It is reported that the delay and cancellation of flights occurred at the beginning of July in the United States. According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), about 47.9 million people will travel from the 1st to the 4th local time, of which about 3.55 million are expected to fly. In the past week, although airlines reduced flights located in the peak summer season from June to August by 15% to ensure the normal operation of the remaining flights, the flight plans of thousands of flights were disrupted due to worker shortages and the impact of bad weather.</p><p><b>New York State Senate passes bill banning carrying guns in \"sensitive places\"</b></p><p>The New York State Senate passed a bill prohibiting the carrying of guns in \"sensitive places\" including Times Square and all public transportation facilities. According to the legislation, other than law enforcement officers, peace officers, active-duty military and public security personnel cannot carry firearms in \"sensitive places\", which include subways, trains, buses, ferries, government buildings, churches, schools, libraries, public playgrounds, parks, zoos, homeless shelters and polling stations. The next step of the bill will be voted on in the state legislature. If it is passed, it will be sent to the New York Governor's Office for the governor to sign into a formal law.</p><p><b>US Defense Department announces $820 million in additional military aid for Ukraine</b></p><p>On July 1, local time, the U.S. Department of Defense announced that it would provide US $820 million in additional military assistance to Ukraine, including a new surface-to-air missile system and anti-artillery radar, as well as providing more ammunition for the \"Haimas\" high-mobility multiple rocket launcher system. According to reports, the plan includes $770 million in funding for the Ukraine Security Assistance Program, allowing the Department of Defense to directly provide funds to contractors to provide weapons to Ukraine, and a $50 million presidential \"withdrawal authorization\" to allow shipments from U.S. inventories. weapons.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><b>Meta to close its cryptocurrency project Novi in September</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a>The cryptocurrency project, which once caused the company's founder Mark Zuckerberg to be under attack in Congress, will now officially shut down the rest of the project. Meta, testing the project Novi, said on its website that it will discontinue service on Sept. 1. Novi offers money transfers using Meta's own cryptocurrency digital wallet. The company said that both the Novi app and Novi on WhatsApp will no longer be available. From July 21, users will no longer be able to recharge their accounts, and it is recommended to withdraw the balance \"as soon as possible\". After the beta period ends, users will not have access to their transaction history or other data. A Meta spokesperson said the company does plan to use Novi's technology in future products, such as in its metaverse project.</p><p><b>The decline in the auto industry continues, GM's Q2 sales plummeted 15%, but it is expected to win the sales crown</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>Data released on Friday showed the company's second-quarter car sales fell 15% as global chip shortages and supply chain disruptions hit production, leaving nearly 100,000 vehicles waiting for parts. GM said the company sold 582,401 vehicles in the second quarter of 2022, compared with 688,236 vehicles in the same period last year. General Motors has long been the best-selling automobile brand in the United States, but the company surrendered that throne to the company last year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota Motors</a>, this is also the first time since 1931 that GM has lost its sales crown in the domestic automobile market in the United States. However, according to market research firm Cox Automotive, GM is still on track to regain the auto sales championship in the quarter, as industry-wide supply disruptions have also affected inventories at other automakers.</p><p><b>The late Apple co-founder Jobs was posthumously awarded the US Presidential Medal of Freedom</b></p><p>On Friday local time, US President Joe Biden announced the list of 17 recipients of the Presidential Medal of Freedom, including the late Apple co-founder Steve Jobs. The award is the highest civilian honor in the United States, and the White House says the recipient \"embodies the soul of the country.\"</p><p><b>Amazon compromises with EU: adding'unsubscribe 'button to Prime paid service</b></p><p>After complaints from many consumer groups around the world, Amazon finally made adjustments to make it easy for users to cancel their subscriptions to the \"Amazon Prime\" service. This adjustment will apply to all EU websites, as well as desktop devices, mobile phones and tablets, and will take effect immediately.</p><p><b>$37 billion purchase! The three major airlines move together and plan to purchase nearly 300 Airbus aircraft</b></p><p>Friday evening<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600115\">China Eastern Airlines</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601111\">Air China</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZNH\">Southern Airlines</a>They have announced the signing of aircraft purchase agreements with Airbus one after another. The three companies have purchased a total of 292 A320NEO series aircraft, with a total amount of US $37.2 billion. All three companies gave their own reasons for purchasing machines. In the announcement,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CEA\">Eastern Airlines</a>It was mentioned that based on confidence in the future development of the civil aviation industry, the company needs to plan and reserve fleet capacity in advance.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00753\">Air China</a>(b)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600029\">Southern Airlines</a>Both mentioned that this aircraft transaction is in line with the fleet development strategy formulated by the company's 14th Five-Year Plan and will help enhance the company's market competitiveness.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | U.S. stocks got off to a thrilling start in the second half of the year, and most popular Chinese concept stocks rose</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | U.S. stocks got off to a thrilling start in the second half of the year, and most popular Chinese concept stocks rose\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-02 07:35</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: U.S. stocks ushered in a rise on the first day of the second half of the year, while the semiconductor sector bucked the trend and fell; Most of the popular Chinese concept stocks rose, and new energy auto stocks opened higher and moved lower; deceased<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Co-founder Jobs was posthumously awarded the US Presidential Medal of Freedom; $37 billion purchase! The three major airlines have made concerted efforts to purchase nearly 300 Airbus aircraft.<b>Overseas Market</b></p><p><b>Closing: U.S. stocks rose on the first day of the second half of the year, while the semiconductor sector bucked the trend and fell</b></p><p>On the first trading day of the second half of the year, US stocks ushered in a rise. Although the intraday trend was tortuous, the three major indexes finally closed up tenaciously in the shock. As of the close, the Dow rose 321.83 points, or 1.05%, to 31097.26 points; The Nasdaq rose 99.11 points, or 0.90%, to 11127.85 points; The S&P 500 rose 39.95 points, or 1.06%, to 3825.33 points.</p><p>Among big tech stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Up more than 3%, Apple,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Up more than 1%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Up 1.07%, Meta fell 0.76%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>It rose 2.9%.</p><p>The chip sector has been hit hard, with several chipmakers saying that rising inflation and a cooling economy are reducing consumer and business spending, and global chip demand will weaken.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ONNN\">Ansenmei</a>Semiconductors fell nearly 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>Fell 5.81%, Dutch chipmaker<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>Fell 5.47%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STM\">STMicroelectronics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>Fell more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>It fell nearly 3%.</p><p><b>Most of the popular Chinese concept stocks rose, while new energy auto stocks opened higher and moved lower</b></p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 1.26%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Betta fish</a>It rose 5% and JD.com rose 2.7%. Among the new car-making forces,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Down 4.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Down 1.59%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>It fell 1.66%.</p><p><b>European stocks closed mixed, with Germany's DAX30 index up 0.25%</b></p><p>The main European stock indexes closed mixed, with the German DAX30 index rising 0.25%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.02%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.14%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell 0.17%.</p><p><b>WTI crude closed 2.5% higher on Friday in New York and was up 0.8% for the week</b></p><p>WTI crude oil futures for August closed up 2.52% at $108.43 a barrel, breaking off the low since last Thursday hit on Thursday; Brent crude oil futures for September closed up 2.38% at $111.63 a barrel, smoothing out most of Thursday's 3% loss. U.S. oil rose 0.8% this week, ending a two-week losing streak. Brent oil, which had zero gains and losses last week, rose 2.3%. In June, U.S. oil fell 7.8%, and Brent oil fell 6.5%, ending a six-month winning streak, but both rose in the second quarter and the first half of the year.</p><p><b>New York gold futures once fell below $1,800</b></p><p>New York gold futures prices closed lower on Friday, falling below the key $1,800 mark during the session. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $5.80, or 0.3%, to close at $1,801.50 an ounce, the lowest closing price since February. In intraday trading on Friday, the futures price once fell below $1,800, falling as low as $1,783.40. Silver futures for September delivery fell 68 cents, or 3.4%, to settle at $19.667 an ounce, their lowest close since July 2020.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><b>Leading indicators show US economy is on the verge, recession is fast approaching</b></p><p>By now, a recession seems to be a consensus. In fact, the Leading Indicator (LEI) of the Institute of Large Enterprises suggests that a recession in the United States may be rapidly approaching. This leading indicator includes many market and economic indicators, such as the number of initial jobless claims, manufacturing surveys and stock prices. Matt Bush, an economist at Guggenheim, found that four consecutive declines in the monthly LEI generally indicate that the U.S. economy has fallen into a recession. As of May, LEI has fallen for three consecutive months. Given the decline in U.S. stocks and the decline in new ISM manufacturing orders, it is highly likely that LEI will fall again in June. The sign doesn't bode well for the attempt to make the U.S. economy soft landing.</p><p><b>The Fed's July rate hike of 75 basis points is almost certain: senior dovish official, San Francisco Fed president joins support</b></p><p>San Francisco Fed President Daly, who has always been regarded as a dove in the Federal Reserve, said that U.S. inflation is too high and the Fed must maintain the path of monetary policy tightening unchanged. \"I support further Fed rate hike by 75 basis points in July\".</p><p><b>U.S. ISM manufacturing hit a two-year low in June, with new orders and employment indexes shrinking</b></p><p>On Friday, data released by ISM showed that the ISM manufacturing industry in the United States hit a two-year low in June, dragged down by weak new orders and contraction. The inventory index is near its highest level since 2010. The supplier delivery, order backlog index slipped, indicating that supply chain and capacity constraints appear to be easing. The ISM data is further evidence that demand for U.S. goods is slowing.</p><p><b>The euro zone's reconciled CPI increased by 8.6% year-on-year in June, higher than expected, and continued to hit a record high</b></p><p>The euro zone's reconciled CPI in June was 8.6% year-on-year, expected 8.5%, and the previous value was 8.1%; The initial value of the core harmonized CPI was 3.7% year-on-year, expected to be 3.9%, and the previous value was 3.8%.</p><p><b>OPEC crude oil production falls for second consecutive month in June</b></p><p>According to media surveys, OPEC production fell by 120,000 barrels per day in June. In addition to the UAE's overfulfillment, Nigeria's daily production fell by 100,000 barrels in June, Saudi Arabia's daily production was about 210,000 barrels below its target quota, and Kuwait also failed to meet its target, with daily production falling by 50,000 barrels.</p><p><b>Several Northern Ireland gas and electricity supply giants announce sharp price increases</b></p><p>Gas suppliers SSE Airtricity and Firmus Energy increased gas and electricity prices by 42.7% and 24.5% respectively, while power suppliers Power NI and Click Energy increased gas and electricity prices by 27.5% and 11% respectively. According to the report, the supplier's own submission is attributed to the high wholesale energy price.</p><p><b>Venice announces entry fee for tourists from January 2023</b></p><p>Venturini, director of culture of the Italian city of Venice, announced that from January 16, 2023, tourists who arrive and leave the center of Venice and the islands on the same day will be levied an entry fee. At that time, passengers who don't stay in Venice will pay 3 euros to 10 euros for entry according to the reservation, and offenders will be fined 50 euros to 300 euros. Local residents of Venice, students, commuters, relatives and residents of Veneto do not need to pay the entry fee.</p><p><b>Latest poll shows 71% of Americans don't want Biden to run for President *</b></p><p>According to The Hill, a recent Harvard University CAPS-Harris poll shows that 71% of respondents believe Biden should not run for a second term as president. Of respondents who thought Biden shouldn't stay in the race, 45% said Biden was a bad president, about a third said it was because he was too old, and about a quarter said it was time for a change. In addition, 61% of respondents believe that former President Trump should not run again in 2024.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Lowering U.S. economic growth forecast for mid-year</b></p><p>Economists at JPMorgan Chase cut their mid-year U.S. economic growth forecast as most of the U.S. data released this week showed weakness, most notably a slowdown in consumer spending. The bank lowered its second-quarter U.S. GDP forecast to 1% from the previous 2.5% and its third-quarter GDP forecast to 1% from 2%.</p><p><b>Thousands of U.S. flights delayed or cancelled due to worker shortages and bad weather</b></p><p>As of 10:30 a.m. EST on July 1st, more than 1,200 flights in and out of or stopping in the United States had been delayed, and another 238 flights had been cancelled. It is reported that the delay and cancellation of flights occurred at the beginning of July in the United States. According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), about 47.9 million people will travel from the 1st to the 4th local time, of which about 3.55 million are expected to fly. In the past week, although airlines reduced flights located in the peak summer season from June to August by 15% to ensure the normal operation of the remaining flights, the flight plans of thousands of flights were disrupted due to worker shortages and the impact of bad weather.</p><p><b>New York State Senate passes bill banning carrying guns in \"sensitive places\"</b></p><p>The New York State Senate passed a bill prohibiting the carrying of guns in \"sensitive places\" including Times Square and all public transportation facilities. According to the legislation, other than law enforcement officers, peace officers, active-duty military and public security personnel cannot carry firearms in \"sensitive places\", which include subways, trains, buses, ferries, government buildings, churches, schools, libraries, public playgrounds, parks, zoos, homeless shelters and polling stations. The next step of the bill will be voted on in the state legislature. If it is passed, it will be sent to the New York Governor's Office for the governor to sign into a formal law.</p><p><b>US Defense Department announces $820 million in additional military aid for Ukraine</b></p><p>On July 1, local time, the U.S. Department of Defense announced that it would provide US $820 million in additional military assistance to Ukraine, including a new surface-to-air missile system and anti-artillery radar, as well as providing more ammunition for the \"Haimas\" high-mobility multiple rocket launcher system. According to reports, the plan includes $770 million in funding for the Ukraine Security Assistance Program, allowing the Department of Defense to directly provide funds to contractors to provide weapons to Ukraine, and a $50 million presidential \"withdrawal authorization\" to allow shipments from U.S. inventories. weapons.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><b>Meta to close its cryptocurrency project Novi in September</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a>The cryptocurrency project, which once caused the company's founder Mark Zuckerberg to be under attack in Congress, will now officially shut down the rest of the project. Meta, testing the project Novi, said on its website that it will discontinue service on Sept. 1. Novi offers money transfers using Meta's own cryptocurrency digital wallet. The company said that both the Novi app and Novi on WhatsApp will no longer be available. From July 21, users will no longer be able to recharge their accounts, and it is recommended to withdraw the balance \"as soon as possible\". After the beta period ends, users will not have access to their transaction history or other data. A Meta spokesperson said the company does plan to use Novi's technology in future products, such as in its metaverse project.</p><p><b>The decline in the auto industry continues, GM's Q2 sales plummeted 15%, but it is expected to win the sales crown</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>Data released on Friday showed the company's second-quarter car sales fell 15% as global chip shortages and supply chain disruptions hit production, leaving nearly 100,000 vehicles waiting for parts. GM said the company sold 582,401 vehicles in the second quarter of 2022, compared with 688,236 vehicles in the same period last year. General Motors has long been the best-selling automobile brand in the United States, but the company surrendered that throne to the company last year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota Motors</a>, this is also the first time since 1931 that GM has lost its sales crown in the domestic automobile market in the United States. However, according to market research firm Cox Automotive, GM is still on track to regain the auto sales championship in the quarter, as industry-wide supply disruptions have also affected inventories at other automakers.</p><p><b>The late Apple co-founder Jobs was posthumously awarded the US Presidential Medal of Freedom</b></p><p>On Friday local time, US President Joe Biden announced the list of 17 recipients of the Presidential Medal of Freedom, including the late Apple co-founder Steve Jobs. The award is the highest civilian honor in the United States, and the White House says the recipient \"embodies the soul of the country.\"</p><p><b>Amazon compromises with EU: adding'unsubscribe 'button to Prime paid service</b></p><p>After complaints from many consumer groups around the world, Amazon finally made adjustments to make it easy for users to cancel their subscriptions to the \"Amazon Prime\" service. This adjustment will apply to all EU websites, as well as desktop devices, mobile phones and tablets, and will take effect immediately.</p><p><b>$37 billion purchase! The three major airlines move together and plan to purchase nearly 300 Airbus aircraft</b></p><p>Friday evening<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600115\">China Eastern Airlines</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601111\">Air China</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZNH\">Southern Airlines</a>They have announced the signing of aircraft purchase agreements with Airbus one after another. The three companies have purchased a total of 292 A320NEO series aircraft, with a total amount of US $37.2 billion. All three companies gave their own reasons for purchasing machines. In the announcement,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CEA\">Eastern Airlines</a>It was mentioned that based on confidence in the future development of the civil aviation industry, the company needs to plan and reserve fleet capacity in advance.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00753\">Air China</a>(b)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600029\">Southern Airlines</a>Both mentioned that this aircraft transaction is in line with the fleet development strategy formulated by the company's 14th Five-Year Plan and will help enhance the company's market competitiveness.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164878609","content_text":"摘要：美股下半年首日迎来上涨，半导体板块逆势下跌；热门中概股大多走高，新能源汽车股高开低走；已故苹果联合创始人乔布斯被追授美国总统自由勋章；370亿美元大采购！三大航企齐出手，拟购入近300架空客飞机。海外市场收盘：美股下半年首日迎来上涨，半导体板块逆势下跌下半年第一个交易日，美股迎来上涨。虽然盘中走势曲折，但三大指数最终在震荡中顽强收涨。截止收盘，道指涨321.83点，涨幅为1.05%，报31097.26点；纳指涨99.11点，涨幅为0.90%，报11127.85点；标普500指数涨39.95点，涨幅为1.06%，报3825.33点。大型科技股中亚马逊涨逾3%，苹果、特斯拉涨超1%，微软上涨1.07%，Meta下跌0.76%，奈飞上涨2.9%。芯片板块受到重创，几家芯片制造商纷纷表示，通胀上升和经济降温正在减少消费者和企业的支出，全球芯片需求将减弱。安森美半导体跌近7%，台积电大跌5.81%，荷兰芯片制造商阿斯麦大跌5.47%，英伟达跌超4%，意法半导体、高通跌超3%，美光科技下跌近3%。热门中概股大多走高，新能源汽车股高开低走热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨1.26%。拼多多、哔哩哔哩涨超4%，知乎、爱奇艺涨超3%，京东、阿里巴巴涨超2%，斗鱼上涨5%，京东上涨2.7%。造车新势力中，小鹏汽车下跌4.6%，理想汽车下跌1.59%，蔚来下跌1.66%。欧股收盘涨跌不一，德国DAX30指数涨0.25%欧股收盘主要指数收盘涨跌不一，德国DAX30指数涨0.25%，英国富时100指数跌0.02%，法国CAC40指数涨0.14%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.17%。纽约WTI原油周五收高2.5%，本周上涨0.8%WTI 8月原油期货收涨2.52%，报108.43美元/桶，摆脱周四所创的上周四以来低位；布伦特9月原油期货收涨2.38%，报111.63美元/桶，抹平周四跌3%的多数跌幅。本周美油累涨0.8%，结束两周连跌，上周零涨跌的布油累涨2.3%。6月美油累跌7.8%，布油累跌6.5%，终结六个月连涨，不过二季度和上半年都累涨。纽约黄金期货一度跌破1800美元 纽约黄金期货价格周五收跌，盘中一度跌破关键的1800美元关口。纽约商品交易所8月交割的黄金期货价格下跌5.80美元，跌幅为0.3%，收于每盎司1801.50美元，创2月以来的最低收盘价。周五盘中，该期货价格一度跌破1800美元，最低下降至1783.40美元。9月交割的白银期货价格下跌68美分，跌幅为3.4%，收于每盎司19.667美元，创2020年7月以来的最低收盘价。国际宏观领先指标显示美国经济濒临险境，衰退正迅速逼近到现在为止，经济衰退似乎已成共识。事实上，世界大型企业研究会的领先指标(LEI)表明美国经济衰退或许正迅速逼近。该领先指标包括了诸多市场和经济指标，例如首次申领失业救济人数、制造业调查和股票价格等。Guggenheim的经济学家马特·布什发现，月度LEI连续四次下降通常表明美国经济已经陷入衰退。截至5月份，LEI已经连降三个月。鉴于美股下跌和ISM制造业新订单的下滑，6月LEI再度下降的可能性很大。这个迹象对于试图让美国经济软着陆的努力来说不是个好兆头。美联储7月加息75基点几乎板上钉钉：鸽派高官旧金山联储主席加入支持行列向来被视为美联储内鸽派的旧金山联储主席戴利表示，美国通胀太高，美联储必须维持货币政策紧缩路径不变。“我支持美联储在7月份进一步加息75个基点”。美国6月ISM制造业创两年新低，新订单和就业指数均陷入萎缩周五，ISM公布的数据显示，受新订单疲软、陷入收缩拖累，美国6月ISM制造业创两年新低。库存指数接近2010年以来的最高水平。供应商交付、订单积压指数下滑，表明供应链和产能限制似乎正在缓解。ISM数据进一步证明了美国商品的需求正在放缓。欧元区6月调和CPI同比增长8.6%，高于预期，续创历史新高欧元区6月调和CPI同比8.6%，预期8.5%，前值8.1%；核心调和CPI同比初值3.7%，预期3.9%，前值3.8%。OPEC 6月原油产量连续第二月下滑根据媒体调查，石油输出国组织6月份的产量每天减少了12万桶。除了阿联酋超额完成任务以外，尼日利亚6月日产量减少了10万桶，沙特日产量比其目标配额低大约21万桶，科威特也未能达到其目标，日产量下降了5万桶。北爱尔兰多家天然气和电力供应巨头宣布大幅涨价天然气供应商SSE Airtricity和Firmus Energy分别将天然气和电力价格提高了42.7%和24.5%，电力供应商 Power NI和Click Energy 则将天然气和电力价格分别提高了27.5%和11%。 报道称，供应商自己提交归因于能源批发价格居高不下。威尼斯宣布从2023年1月起对游客征收进城费意大利威尼斯市文化局长文图里尼宣布，将从2023年1月16日起对当天到达、离开威尼斯市中心和岛屿的游客征收进城费。届时，不在威尼斯市内住宿的旅客将根据预定情况，支付3欧元到10欧元进城费，违者将被罚款50欧元到300欧元。威尼斯本地居民、学生、通勤人员、亲属和威尼托大区居民无需支付进城费。最新民调显示71%美国人不希望拜登竞选连任总统据《国会山报》报道，一项最新的哈佛大学CAPS-Harris民意调查显示，71%的受访者认为拜登不应该参加第二个总统任期的竞选。在认为拜登不应该继续参选的受访者中，45%的人表示拜登是一个糟糕的总统，大约三分之一的人表示因为他年纪太大了，大约四分之一的人表示是时候做出改变了。此外，61%的受访者认为，前总统特朗普不应该在2024年再度参选。摩根大通下调美国年中经济增长预期摩根大通经济学家下调了美国年中经济增长预期，因本周美国公布的大多数数据表现疲软，其中最明显的是消费者支出放缓。该行将美国第二季度GDP预期从此前的2.5%下调至1%，将第三季度GDP预期从2%下调至1%。受工人短缺和恶劣天气影响，美国上千航班被延误或取消截至美国东部时间7月1日上午10点30分，当日已有超过1200个进出美国或经停美国的航班被延误，另有238个航班被取消。据悉，航班的延误和取消发生在美国7月初小长期来临之际。据美国汽车协会（AAA）预计，当地时间1日至4日将有约4790万人出行，其中约355万人预计将乘坐飞机。在过去的一周里，尽管航空公司将位于6月至8月夏季高峰期的航班减少了15%以确保剩余航班的正常运行，但由于工人短缺和恶劣天气的影响，仍有数千个航班的飞行计划被扰乱。美国纽约州参议院通过法案，禁止在“敏感场所”携带枪支美国纽约州参议院通过法案，禁止在包括时报广场和所有公共交通设施等“敏感场所”携带枪支。根据立法，除执法人员、治安人员、现役军人和公安人员外，其他人不能在“敏感场所”携带枪支，其中包括地铁、火车、公共汽车、渡轮、政府大楼、教堂、学校、图书馆、公共游乐场、公园、动物园、流浪者收容所和投票站。该法案下一步将在州议会进行投票，若投票通过，将被送至纽约州长办公室等待州长签署成为正式法律。美国国防部宣布向乌克兰提供8.2亿美元额外军事援助当地时间7月1日，美国国防部宣布向乌克兰提供8.2亿美元的额外军事援助，其中包括新的地对空导弹系统和反炮兵雷达，并为“海马斯”高机动性多管火箭炮系统提供更多弹药。据介绍，该计划包括7.7亿美元的乌克兰安全援助计划资金，允许国防部直接向承包商提供资金，为乌克兰提供武器，以及5000万美元的总统“提款授权”，允许从美国库存中运出武器。公司新闻Meta将在9月关闭其加密货币项目NoviMeta Platforms的加密货币项目曾经令该公司创始人马克·扎克伯格在国会饱受攻击，现在，该项目的剩余部分也将正式关闭。Meta在测试项目Novi其网站上表示，将于9月1日停止服务。Novi使用Meta自己的加密货币数字钱包提供转账服务。该公司表示，Novi应用程序和WhatsApp上的Novi都将不再可用。从7月21日开始，用户将无法再向他们的帐户充值，建议“尽快”提取余额。在测试期结束后，用户将无法访问其交易历史记录或其他数据。Meta发言人表示，该公司确实计划在未来产品中使用Novi的技术，例如在其元宇宙项目中。汽车行业颓势仍在持续 通用Q2销量大跌15% 但有望问鼎销售桂冠通用汽车周五公布的数据显示，该公司二季度汽车销量下降了15%，原因是全球芯片短缺和供应链中断影响了生产，导致近10万辆汽车在等待零部件。通用表示，公司2022年二季度汽车销量为582,401辆，而去年同期则为688,236辆。通用汽车长期以来都是美国最畅销的汽车品牌，不过该公司去年将这一宝座拱手让给了丰田汽车，这也是通用自1931年以来首次丢失美国本土汽车市场销售桂冠。然而，根据市场研究机构Cox Automotive的数据，通用当季仍有望夺回汽车销售冠军，因为全行业的供应中断同样影响到了其他汽车制造商的库存。已故苹果联合创始人乔布斯被追授美国总统自由勋章当地时间周五，美国总统乔·拜登（Joe Biden）宣布了17名总统自由勋章获得者的名单，其中包括已故苹果公司联合创始人史蒂夫·乔布斯（Steve Jobs）。该奖项是美国最高平民荣誉，白宫称获奖者“体现了国家的灵魂”。亚马逊向欧盟妥协：为Prime付费服务增加“取消订阅”按钮在遭到全球多家消费者团体的投诉后，亚马逊终于做出调整，让用户轻松地取消对“Amazon Prime”服务的订阅。这一调整将适用于所有欧盟网站，以及台式设备、手机和平板电脑，且立即生效。370亿美元大采购！三大航企齐出手，拟购入近300架空客飞机周五晚间中国东航、中国国航、南方航空纷纷公告与空客签订购机协议，三家公司合计采购A320NEO系列飞机共292架，合计金额372亿美元。三家公司均给出了各自的购机理由，在公告中，东方航空提到，基于对于民航业未来发展的信心，公司需提前对机队运力进行规划和储备。中国国航及南方航空均提到，本次飞机交易符合本公司十四五规划制定的机队发展策略，有助于增强本公司市场竞争力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TTTN":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2138,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9045572410,"gmtCreate":1656638512230,"gmtModify":1676535868623,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9045572410","repostId":"1197380978","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1063,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9045962820,"gmtCreate":1656551978760,"gmtModify":1676535852106,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9045962820","repostId":"1120000025","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120000025","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1656546145,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120000025?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-30 07:42","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | The S&P rebounded and failed to linger in a bear market, hitting its largest half-year decline since 1970","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120000025","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①隔夜美股涨跌不一，道指涨0.27%，纳指跌0.03%，标普500跌0.07%，中概股普跌；②欧美三位央行行长齐声表态遏制通胀是现阶段的首要任务；③美司法部称已冻结3300亿美元俄罗斯寡头和银行","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: ① U.S. stocks were mixed overnight, the Dow rose 0.27%, the Nasdaq fell 0.03%, the S&P 500 fell 0.07%, and Chinese concept stocks generally fell; ② Three central bank governors in Europe and the United States stated in unison that curbing inflation is the top priority at this stage; ③ The U.S. Department of Justice said it had frozen $330 billion in Russian oligarchs and bank assets; ④ Ukrainian President Zelensky announced the interruption of diplomatic relations with Syria. Overseas Market</p><p>1. U.S. stocks closed mixed on Wednesday, large technology stocks rose and fell mixed</p><p>U.S. stocks closed mixed on Wednesday. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell believes that the U.S. economic situation is strong and can withstand rate hike, but cannot guarantee a soft landing for the economy. As of the close, the Nasdaq fell 0.03% to 11177.89 points; The Dow rose 0.27% to 31,029.31 points; The S&P 500 index fell 0.07% to 3818.83 points, in the bear market range for two consecutive days, closing down more than 20% from the record high on January 3 this year, and is set to record its largest semi-annual decline since 1970 as of Thursday. The Nasdaq closed down 0.03% at 11,177.89 points. Both the S&P and the S&P fell for three consecutive days, continuing to fall from the highest since June 9 set last Friday.</p><p>Large tech stocks rose and fell mixed,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Up 1.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Up more than 1%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It fell 1.79%, while Meta rose 2%.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed lower<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Fell more than 2%</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks mostly closed lower on Wednesday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOUR\">Tuniu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Up more than 9%, Ctrip rose 2.5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up 0.5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Down 0.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Down 4.3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up 0.2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Closed flat. Among new energy vehicles,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>In response to the Grizzlies' short selling saying that there were \"a lot of errors\" in the report, its U.S. stocks fell 2.4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up 2.7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Fell 1.7%.</p><p>3. Major European stock indexes closed generally lower, and the German DAX30 index fell 1.7%</p><p>Major European stock indexes closed generally lower on Wednesday, with Germany's DAX30 index falling 1.7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.14%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.98%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell 1%.</p><p>4. U.S. WTI crude oil futures closed down 1.77% on Wednesday, ending three consecutive gains</p><p>U.S. crude oil futures prices closed lower on Wednesday, ending three consecutive trading days of gains. The prospect of a weaker global economy has put pressure on oil prices. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $1.98, or 1.77%, to close at $109.78 per barrel.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 0.2%, hitting a two-week low</p><p>Gold futures prices in New York closed lower on Wednesday and hit their lowest closing price in two weeks, recording the third consecutive trading day of losses. The price of gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $3.70, or 0.2%, at $1,817.50 an ounce, the lowest closing price since June 14.</p><p>6. European natural gas rose 8% to a three-month high</p><p>European natural gas rebounded strongly. ICE British natural gas futures closed up 4.42% at 174.12 pence/kcal, breaking away from the lowest level since last Monday, June 13, which fell 3% on Tuesday; TTF benchmark Dutch natural gas futures closed up 8.03% at 139.588 euros/MWh, a new high since March 8 and a new high in more than three months after hitting new highs since March 11 last Wednesday and Thursday.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. The GDP of the United States in the first quarter was lowered again! The annualized quarterly rate decline expanded to 1.6%</p><p>On Wednesday (June 29th) local time, the latest report released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis once again lowered the growth rate of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter. Specific data show that in the first quarter of this year, the annualized quarterly rate of U.S. GDP fell by 1.6%, which is undoubtedly a huge blow compared with the 1.1% growth expected by economists. According to the report of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the weakness of personal consumption expenditure is the main reason for this downward adjustment. It is worth mentioning that this is the second downward revision of GDP in the first quarter. The quarterly GDP of the United States will be released three times. In the initial value report in April, the annualized quarterly rate of GDP fell by 1.4%; In the revised value report, this decline expanded to 1.5%. The report also pointed out that the record trade deficit dragged down the performance of the United States this quarter.</p><p>2. Powell says the U.S. economy is strong and the Fed can avoid recession</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said during a panel discussion at the European Central Bank's annual policy forum in Sintra, Portugal, on Wednesday that the U.S. economy is in \"strong shape\" and that the central bank can reduce inflation to 2% while maintaining a solid labor market, although the task has become more challenging in recent months. Raising interest rates without triggering a recession is \"our goal, and we believe there is a path to that,\" Powell said.</p><p>3. Democrats discuss cutting tax increases in the hope of getting Biden's economic package passed in the next few weeks</p><p>Democrats in the U.S. Senate are seeking to reduce the tax increase in President Joe Biden's economic package, hoping to reach an agreement with Senator Joe Manchin and get the plan passed in the coming weeks, people familiar with the matter said. The adjustments under consideration would weaken some of the tax increases passed by the House last year and could mean that both U.S. businesses and wealthy families end up with smaller tax increases than Biden and Democrats originally envisaged, people familiar with the matter said.</p><p>4. U.S. Supreme Court Justice Breyer will retire on the 30th, and his successor will be Jackson nominated by Biden</p><p>On Wednesday local time, the U.S. Supreme Court announced that liberal Justice Stephen Breyer will officially retire on the 30th. He will be succeeded by Ketanji Brown Jackson, the first African-American female justice in American history and nominated by Biden. Breyer, 83, has served on the federal Supreme Court since 1994. He is considered a liberal of the Supreme Court and one of only three liberal justices. Therefore, even after the substitution, the ratio of conservative to liberal justices in the U.S. Supreme Court is still 6: 3, which has not changed the current pattern.</p><p>5. US poll: 78% of Americans believe that Biden is leading the United States on the wrong path</p><p>According to a poll conducted jointly by Morning Consult and Politico, 78% of Americans who participated in the poll believe that President Biden is leading the United States on the wrong path in policy. In a poll conducted in late February 2021 after Biden took office, 51% of respondents thought the United States was heading in the wrong direction. This figure has increased by 27 percentage points since then.</p><p>6. A coalition of U.S. environmental organizations files a lawsuit against the Biden administration for its first sale of onshore oil and gas drilling leases</p><p>On June 29, local time, a coalition of 10 environmental organizations filed a lawsuit against the Biden administration for its first sale of onshore oil and gas drilling leases on the evening of the 28th. The environmental groups say the lease violates the U.S. National Environmental Policy Act and the federal Land Policy and Management Act, noting that additional drilling will lead to climate change.</p><p>7. It is reported that the White House is analyzing what will happen to the economy when oil prices rise to $200</p><p>On Wednesday, Eastern Time, according to media reports, the Biden administration has begun to analyze and simulate what kind of damage it will cause to the economy when international oil prices reach US $200 per barrel. As the media commented: Economic officials are not studying Managing an economy in its natural development, moving from recovery to a period of steady growth, is analyzing and simulating the worst-case scenario, such as what the impact of oil prices reaching US $200 per barrel may mean for the economy.</p><p>8. The United States hopes that OPEC will have a second step to follow up after increasing production in the near future</p><p>Amos Hochstein, senior adviser on energy security at the U.S. State Department, said in an interview that the United States welcomed OPEC's decision to accelerate oil supply growth earlier this month, calling it a \"major change in attitude.\" Hochstein hopes that OPEC's plan to increase production by 648,000 barrels per day in July and August is the \"first step\" in its supply policy, followed by a \"second step\". The United States is in talks with OPEC countries that still have spare production capacity to assess whether it is necessary to further release strategic oil reserves after October.</p><p>9. The Doha talks between the United States, Iran and the European Union ended without achieving expected results</p><p>On the evening of June 29th, local time, the negotiations between Iran, the United States and the European Union aimed at lifting the sanctions against Iran by the United States ended in Doha, Qatar. Mora, Deputy Secretary-General of the European External Action Service, said, \"We have not made the progress we hoped for before, but we will continue to work hard to get the Iranian nuclear deal back on track.\"</p><p>10. EU negotiators reach agreement on fund transfer supervision in encryption software anti-money laundering rules</p><p>The European Parliament said EU negotiators reached an agreement on the regulation of money transfers in anti-money laundering rules for crypto software.</p><p>11. The German cabinet is reviewing the draft budget for 2023 and plans to regain compliance with the \"debt brake\" principle</p><p>According to German government insiders on June 29, local time, the federal cabinet is reviewing the 2023 budget. Influenced by COVID-19 pandemic, Germany has broken the \"debt brake\" principle for three consecutive years. According to the draft budget submitted by Federal Finance Minister Lindner, the total amount of German government loans will drop to around 17 billion euros in 2023. Therefore, Germany plans to regain compliance with the \"debt brake\" principle from next year.</p><p>12. German inflation slowed in June, and the government's temporary relief measures eased inflationary pressures</p><p>German inflation unexpectedly slowed as the government's temporary relief measures eased pressure on households and businesses squeezed by a record surge in prices. Fuel duty cuts and public transport cost discounts helped reduce consumer price increases to 8.2% in June from 8.7% in May, data showed Wednesday. Analysts surveyed had expected a rise of 8.8%.</p><p>13. President of Finland: Finland and Sweden will sign the \"Accession\" Protocol by July 5 at the latest</p><p>On June 29, local time, Finnish President Niinisto stated at a press conference held in Madrid, Spain that Finland and Sweden will sign the \"accession\" protocol on July 5 at the latest.</p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine</p><p>1. Putin: Russia's special military operations against Ukraine may change at the tactical level</p><p>On June 29, local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the goals of Russia's special military operations against Ukraine will not change, but there may be changes at the tactical level. Putin said that Western countries' call for Ukraine to continue fighting confirms Russia's conjecture that what Western countries want to protect is not Ukraine's interests, but their own interests. Putin also said that if NATO deploys military forces in Finland and Sweden, Russia will have to take countermeasures.</p><p>2. The U.S. Department of Justice says it has frozen $330 billion in assets of Russian oligarchs and banks</p><p>The U.S. and its allies have frozen more than $30 billion in the assets of Russian oligarchs, the Justice Department said, and the relevant task force has frozen Russia<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>The funding is about $300 billion. The U.S.-formed task force on Russian elites, proxies and oligarchs (REPO) has released new details about the seizure of high-value properties owned by Russian business giants. They tried to seize the luxury goods of these giants, including yachts worth hundreds of millions of dollars, to exert continued political pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Ministry of Justice believes that the work of the task force is \"unfinished\" and that the task force will continue to track Russian assets in the coming months.</p><p>Russian officials have responded to the continuous seizure and freezing of Russian assets by Western countries. A spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry warned on Wednesday that Russia has the right to take retaliatory measures, such as confiscating assets owned by western countries in Russia.</p><p>3. Ukrainian President Zelensky announced the interruption of diplomatic relations with Syria</p><p>After Syria announced its recognition of the sovereignty and independence of the \"Luhansk People's Republic\" and the \"Donetsk People's Republic\", Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that evening the interruption of diplomatic relations between the country and Syria. Zelensky said in a routine video on the 29th that \"there will no longer be relations between Ukraine and Syria\" and that Ukraine's sanctions against Syria will also be stronger.</p><p>4. British Prime Minister Johnson promises to provide another 1 billion pounds of military aid to Ukraine</p><p>On June 29, local time, at the NATO summit held in Madrid, the capital of Spain, British Prime Minister Johnson promised to provide another 1 billion pounds worth of military assistance to Ukraine, which made the UK's military assistance to Ukraine during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Aid funds reached 2.3 billion pounds. The funds will be used to develop air defense systems, unmanned aerial vehicles, electronic warfare equipment, etc.</p><p>5. International rating agency Fitch: If Russian natural gas supply is cut off, some Central and Eastern European countries will be hit hard</p><p>Fitch, an international rating agency, said in a report that if Russia's natural gas supply to the EU is suddenly interrupted, it will have a serious impact on some Central and Eastern European countries, including high inflation and negative economic growth. According to the report, if Russian natural gas supply is cut off, Slovakia, Hungary and the Czech Republic will be most seriously affected because these countries are highly dependent on Russian natural gas and lack alternative products. Poland, Lithuania and Romania are less affected, because these countries have basically found alternative energy sources or achieved domestic production.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2247028328\" target=\"_blank\">Buffett's heavily invested food giant breaks up with supermarket chains: won't let price increases? Off the shelves!</a></p><p>According to local media reports in the UK, many products of Kraft Heinz, an American food producer, have been removed from Tesco, a British supermarket chain, due to the collapse of the talk between the company and the supermarket over price increases. As we all know, Kraft Heinz is also Buffett's favorite stock.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>At present, it holds 26.61% of the company's shares and is the largest shareholder of the company. A Tesco spokesman said righteously that it was a pity that this change would lead to many products being removed from the shelves, but supermarkets would not pass on unreasonable price increases to our customers, and consumers also had \"many alternative choices\". With UK household budgets under increasing pressure, supermarkets are more responsible than ever to ensure users get the best value possible.</p><p>2. Tesla's weekly output in Texas reaches 5,000 vehicles</p><p>According to automotive news website Electrek, citing people familiar with the matter, Tesla has managed to increase production at its Gigafactory in Texas, which can deliver up to 5,000 vehicles per week. This factory also produces a long-range version of the Model Y, which helps increase overall production. Tesla aims to increase weekly production to 10,000 vehicles by the end of the year.</p><p>3. Eli Lilly was approved to conduct clinical trials of Donanemab in the treatment of early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease in China</p><p>Eli Lilly China announced that its clinical trial application for Donanemab injection in China has been approved by the National Medical Products Administration. This is a global study evaluating the safety and efficacy of Donanemab in the treatment of early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease, including mild cognitive impairment due to Alzheimer's disease, and mild Alzheimer's disease.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2247022295\" target=\"_blank\">Pfizer signs a US $3.2 billion vaccine order with the US government: the price per dose is about US $30.50</a></p><p>On Wednesday local time, Pfizer said it had signed a new vaccine supply agreement with the U.S. government. The U.S. government will pay Pfizer US $3.2 billion to purchase 105 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine, which are expected to be delivered as early as the end of this summer.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | The S&P rebounded and failed to linger in a bear market, hitting its largest half-year decline since 1970</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | The S&P rebounded and failed to linger in a bear market, hitting its largest half-year decline since 1970\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-30 07:42</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: ① U.S. stocks were mixed overnight, the Dow rose 0.27%, the Nasdaq fell 0.03%, the S&P 500 fell 0.07%, and Chinese concept stocks generally fell; ② Three central bank governors in Europe and the United States stated in unison that curbing inflation is the top priority at this stage; ③ The U.S. Department of Justice said it had frozen $330 billion in Russian oligarchs and bank assets; ④ Ukrainian President Zelensky announced the interruption of diplomatic relations with Syria. Overseas Market</p><p>1. U.S. stocks closed mixed on Wednesday, large technology stocks rose and fell mixed</p><p>U.S. stocks closed mixed on Wednesday. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell believes that the U.S. economic situation is strong and can withstand rate hike, but cannot guarantee a soft landing for the economy. As of the close, the Nasdaq fell 0.03% to 11177.89 points; The Dow rose 0.27% to 31,029.31 points; The S&P 500 index fell 0.07% to 3818.83 points, in the bear market range for two consecutive days, closing down more than 20% from the record high on January 3 this year, and is set to record its largest semi-annual decline since 1970 as of Thursday. The Nasdaq closed down 0.03% at 11,177.89 points. Both the S&P and the S&P fell for three consecutive days, continuing to fall from the highest since June 9 set last Friday.</p><p>Large tech stocks rose and fell mixed,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Up 1.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Up more than 1%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It fell 1.79%, while Meta rose 2%.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed lower<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Fell more than 2%</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks mostly closed lower on Wednesday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOUR\">Tuniu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Up more than 9%, Ctrip rose 2.5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up 0.5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Down 0.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Down 4.3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up 0.2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Closed flat. Among new energy vehicles,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>In response to the Grizzlies' short selling saying that there were \"a lot of errors\" in the report, its U.S. stocks fell 2.4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up 2.7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Fell 1.7%.</p><p>3. Major European stock indexes closed generally lower, and the German DAX30 index fell 1.7%</p><p>Major European stock indexes closed generally lower on Wednesday, with Germany's DAX30 index falling 1.7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.14%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.98%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell 1%.</p><p>4. U.S. WTI crude oil futures closed down 1.77% on Wednesday, ending three consecutive gains</p><p>U.S. crude oil futures prices closed lower on Wednesday, ending three consecutive trading days of gains. The prospect of a weaker global economy has put pressure on oil prices. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $1.98, or 1.77%, to close at $109.78 per barrel.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 0.2%, hitting a two-week low</p><p>Gold futures prices in New York closed lower on Wednesday and hit their lowest closing price in two weeks, recording the third consecutive trading day of losses. The price of gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $3.70, or 0.2%, at $1,817.50 an ounce, the lowest closing price since June 14.</p><p>6. European natural gas rose 8% to a three-month high</p><p>European natural gas rebounded strongly. ICE British natural gas futures closed up 4.42% at 174.12 pence/kcal, breaking away from the lowest level since last Monday, June 13, which fell 3% on Tuesday; TTF benchmark Dutch natural gas futures closed up 8.03% at 139.588 euros/MWh, a new high since March 8 and a new high in more than three months after hitting new highs since March 11 last Wednesday and Thursday.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. The GDP of the United States in the first quarter was lowered again! The annualized quarterly rate decline expanded to 1.6%</p><p>On Wednesday (June 29th) local time, the latest report released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis once again lowered the growth rate of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter. Specific data show that in the first quarter of this year, the annualized quarterly rate of U.S. GDP fell by 1.6%, which is undoubtedly a huge blow compared with the 1.1% growth expected by economists. According to the report of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the weakness of personal consumption expenditure is the main reason for this downward adjustment. It is worth mentioning that this is the second downward revision of GDP in the first quarter. The quarterly GDP of the United States will be released three times. In the initial value report in April, the annualized quarterly rate of GDP fell by 1.4%; In the revised value report, this decline expanded to 1.5%. The report also pointed out that the record trade deficit dragged down the performance of the United States this quarter.</p><p>2. Powell says the U.S. economy is strong and the Fed can avoid recession</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said during a panel discussion at the European Central Bank's annual policy forum in Sintra, Portugal, on Wednesday that the U.S. economy is in \"strong shape\" and that the central bank can reduce inflation to 2% while maintaining a solid labor market, although the task has become more challenging in recent months. Raising interest rates without triggering a recession is \"our goal, and we believe there is a path to that,\" Powell said.</p><p>3. Democrats discuss cutting tax increases in the hope of getting Biden's economic package passed in the next few weeks</p><p>Democrats in the U.S. Senate are seeking to reduce the tax increase in President Joe Biden's economic package, hoping to reach an agreement with Senator Joe Manchin and get the plan passed in the coming weeks, people familiar with the matter said. The adjustments under consideration would weaken some of the tax increases passed by the House last year and could mean that both U.S. businesses and wealthy families end up with smaller tax increases than Biden and Democrats originally envisaged, people familiar with the matter said.</p><p>4. U.S. Supreme Court Justice Breyer will retire on the 30th, and his successor will be Jackson nominated by Biden</p><p>On Wednesday local time, the U.S. Supreme Court announced that liberal Justice Stephen Breyer will officially retire on the 30th. He will be succeeded by Ketanji Brown Jackson, the first African-American female justice in American history and nominated by Biden. Breyer, 83, has served on the federal Supreme Court since 1994. He is considered a liberal of the Supreme Court and one of only three liberal justices. Therefore, even after the substitution, the ratio of conservative to liberal justices in the U.S. Supreme Court is still 6: 3, which has not changed the current pattern.</p><p>5. US poll: 78% of Americans believe that Biden is leading the United States on the wrong path</p><p>According to a poll conducted jointly by Morning Consult and Politico, 78% of Americans who participated in the poll believe that President Biden is leading the United States on the wrong path in policy. In a poll conducted in late February 2021 after Biden took office, 51% of respondents thought the United States was heading in the wrong direction. This figure has increased by 27 percentage points since then.</p><p>6. A coalition of U.S. environmental organizations files a lawsuit against the Biden administration for its first sale of onshore oil and gas drilling leases</p><p>On June 29, local time, a coalition of 10 environmental organizations filed a lawsuit against the Biden administration for its first sale of onshore oil and gas drilling leases on the evening of the 28th. The environmental groups say the lease violates the U.S. National Environmental Policy Act and the federal Land Policy and Management Act, noting that additional drilling will lead to climate change.</p><p>7. It is reported that the White House is analyzing what will happen to the economy when oil prices rise to $200</p><p>On Wednesday, Eastern Time, according to media reports, the Biden administration has begun to analyze and simulate what kind of damage it will cause to the economy when international oil prices reach US $200 per barrel. As the media commented: Economic officials are not studying Managing an economy in its natural development, moving from recovery to a period of steady growth, is analyzing and simulating the worst-case scenario, such as what the impact of oil prices reaching US $200 per barrel may mean for the economy.</p><p>8. The United States hopes that OPEC will have a second step to follow up after increasing production in the near future</p><p>Amos Hochstein, senior adviser on energy security at the U.S. State Department, said in an interview that the United States welcomed OPEC's decision to accelerate oil supply growth earlier this month, calling it a \"major change in attitude.\" Hochstein hopes that OPEC's plan to increase production by 648,000 barrels per day in July and August is the \"first step\" in its supply policy, followed by a \"second step\". The United States is in talks with OPEC countries that still have spare production capacity to assess whether it is necessary to further release strategic oil reserves after October.</p><p>9. The Doha talks between the United States, Iran and the European Union ended without achieving expected results</p><p>On the evening of June 29th, local time, the negotiations between Iran, the United States and the European Union aimed at lifting the sanctions against Iran by the United States ended in Doha, Qatar. Mora, Deputy Secretary-General of the European External Action Service, said, \"We have not made the progress we hoped for before, but we will continue to work hard to get the Iranian nuclear deal back on track.\"</p><p>10. EU negotiators reach agreement on fund transfer supervision in encryption software anti-money laundering rules</p><p>The European Parliament said EU negotiators reached an agreement on the regulation of money transfers in anti-money laundering rules for crypto software.</p><p>11. The German cabinet is reviewing the draft budget for 2023 and plans to regain compliance with the \"debt brake\" principle</p><p>According to German government insiders on June 29, local time, the federal cabinet is reviewing the 2023 budget. Influenced by COVID-19 pandemic, Germany has broken the \"debt brake\" principle for three consecutive years. According to the draft budget submitted by Federal Finance Minister Lindner, the total amount of German government loans will drop to around 17 billion euros in 2023. Therefore, Germany plans to regain compliance with the \"debt brake\" principle from next year.</p><p>12. German inflation slowed in June, and the government's temporary relief measures eased inflationary pressures</p><p>German inflation unexpectedly slowed as the government's temporary relief measures eased pressure on households and businesses squeezed by a record surge in prices. Fuel duty cuts and public transport cost discounts helped reduce consumer price increases to 8.2% in June from 8.7% in May, data showed Wednesday. Analysts surveyed had expected a rise of 8.8%.</p><p>13. President of Finland: Finland and Sweden will sign the \"Accession\" Protocol by July 5 at the latest</p><p>On June 29, local time, Finnish President Niinisto stated at a press conference held in Madrid, Spain that Finland and Sweden will sign the \"accession\" protocol on July 5 at the latest.</p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine</p><p>1. Putin: Russia's special military operations against Ukraine may change at the tactical level</p><p>On June 29, local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the goals of Russia's special military operations against Ukraine will not change, but there may be changes at the tactical level. Putin said that Western countries' call for Ukraine to continue fighting confirms Russia's conjecture that what Western countries want to protect is not Ukraine's interests, but their own interests. Putin also said that if NATO deploys military forces in Finland and Sweden, Russia will have to take countermeasures.</p><p>2. The U.S. Department of Justice says it has frozen $330 billion in assets of Russian oligarchs and banks</p><p>The U.S. and its allies have frozen more than $30 billion in the assets of Russian oligarchs, the Justice Department said, and the relevant task force has frozen Russia<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>The funding is about $300 billion. The U.S.-formed task force on Russian elites, proxies and oligarchs (REPO) has released new details about the seizure of high-value properties owned by Russian business giants. They tried to seize the luxury goods of these giants, including yachts worth hundreds of millions of dollars, to exert continued political pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Ministry of Justice believes that the work of the task force is \"unfinished\" and that the task force will continue to track Russian assets in the coming months.</p><p>Russian officials have responded to the continuous seizure and freezing of Russian assets by Western countries. A spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry warned on Wednesday that Russia has the right to take retaliatory measures, such as confiscating assets owned by western countries in Russia.</p><p>3. Ukrainian President Zelensky announced the interruption of diplomatic relations with Syria</p><p>After Syria announced its recognition of the sovereignty and independence of the \"Luhansk People's Republic\" and the \"Donetsk People's Republic\", Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that evening the interruption of diplomatic relations between the country and Syria. Zelensky said in a routine video on the 29th that \"there will no longer be relations between Ukraine and Syria\" and that Ukraine's sanctions against Syria will also be stronger.</p><p>4. British Prime Minister Johnson promises to provide another 1 billion pounds of military aid to Ukraine</p><p>On June 29, local time, at the NATO summit held in Madrid, the capital of Spain, British Prime Minister Johnson promised to provide another 1 billion pounds worth of military assistance to Ukraine, which made the UK's military assistance to Ukraine during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Aid funds reached 2.3 billion pounds. The funds will be used to develop air defense systems, unmanned aerial vehicles, electronic warfare equipment, etc.</p><p>5. International rating agency Fitch: If Russian natural gas supply is cut off, some Central and Eastern European countries will be hit hard</p><p>Fitch, an international rating agency, said in a report that if Russia's natural gas supply to the EU is suddenly interrupted, it will have a serious impact on some Central and Eastern European countries, including high inflation and negative economic growth. According to the report, if Russian natural gas supply is cut off, Slovakia, Hungary and the Czech Republic will be most seriously affected because these countries are highly dependent on Russian natural gas and lack alternative products. Poland, Lithuania and Romania are less affected, because these countries have basically found alternative energy sources or achieved domestic production.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2247028328\" target=\"_blank\">Buffett's heavily invested food giant breaks up with supermarket chains: won't let price increases? Off the shelves!</a></p><p>According to local media reports in the UK, many products of Kraft Heinz, an American food producer, have been removed from Tesco, a British supermarket chain, due to the collapse of the talk between the company and the supermarket over price increases. As we all know, Kraft Heinz is also Buffett's favorite stock.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>At present, it holds 26.61% of the company's shares and is the largest shareholder of the company. A Tesco spokesman said righteously that it was a pity that this change would lead to many products being removed from the shelves, but supermarkets would not pass on unreasonable price increases to our customers, and consumers also had \"many alternative choices\". With UK household budgets under increasing pressure, supermarkets are more responsible than ever to ensure users get the best value possible.</p><p>2. Tesla's weekly output in Texas reaches 5,000 vehicles</p><p>According to automotive news website Electrek, citing people familiar with the matter, Tesla has managed to increase production at its Gigafactory in Texas, which can deliver up to 5,000 vehicles per week. This factory also produces a long-range version of the Model Y, which helps increase overall production. Tesla aims to increase weekly production to 10,000 vehicles by the end of the year.</p><p>3. Eli Lilly was approved to conduct clinical trials of Donanemab in the treatment of early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease in China</p><p>Eli Lilly China announced that its clinical trial application for Donanemab injection in China has been approved by the National Medical Products Administration. This is a global study evaluating the safety and efficacy of Donanemab in the treatment of early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease, including mild cognitive impairment due to Alzheimer's disease, and mild Alzheimer's disease.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2247022295\" target=\"_blank\">Pfizer signs a US $3.2 billion vaccine order with the US government: the price per dose is about US $30.50</a></p><p>On Wednesday local time, Pfizer said it had signed a new vaccine supply agreement with the U.S. government. The U.S. government will pay Pfizer US $3.2 billion to purchase 105 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine, which are expected to be delivered as early as the end of this summer.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UGAZ":"三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)",".DJI":"道琼斯","DGAZ":"三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UNG":"美国天然气基金"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120000025","content_text":"摘要：①隔夜美股涨跌不一，道指涨0.27%，纳指跌0.03%，标普500跌0.07%，中概股普跌；②欧美三位央行行长齐声表态遏制通胀是现阶段的首要任务；③美司法部称已冻结3300亿美元俄罗斯寡头和银行资产；④乌克兰总统泽连斯基宣布中断与叙利亚的外交关系。海外市场1、美股周三收盘涨跌不一大型科技股涨跌各异美股周三收盘涨跌不一，美联储主席鲍威尔认为美国经济形势强劲，可以承受加息，但不能保证经济软着陆。截至收盘，纳指跌0.03%，报11177.89点；道指涨0.27%，报31029.31点；标普500指数跌0.07%，报3818.83点，连续两日处于熊市区间，收盘较今年1月3日的纪录高位跌超20%，势将截至本周四录得1970年以来最大的半年度跌幅。纳指收跌0.03%，报11177.89点，和标普均连跌三日，继续跌离上周五所创的6月9日以来高位。大型科技股涨跌各异，亚马逊上涨1.4%，苹果、微软涨超1%，特斯拉跌1.79%，Meta上涨2%。2、热门中概股收盘大多走低蔚来跌超2%热门中概股周三收盘大多走低，途牛、新东方涨超9%，携程涨2.5%，京东涨0.5%，阿里巴巴跌0.6%，哔哩哔哩跌4.3%，拼多多涨0.2%，贝壳收平。新能源汽车中，蔚来回应灰熊做空称报告存在“大量错误”，其美股跌2.4%。理想汽车涨2.7%，小鹏汽车跌1.7%。3、欧股主要指数收盘普跌德国DAX30指数跌1.7%欧股主要指数周三收盘普跌，德国DAX30指数跌1.7%，英国富时100指数跌0.14%，法国CAC40指数跌0.98%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌1%。4、美国WTI原油期货周三收跌1.77% 结束三连涨美国原油期货价格周三收跌，结束了此前连续三个交易日上涨的行情。全球经济疲软的前景令油价受到压力。纽约商品交易所8月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格收跌1.98美元，跌幅为1.77%，报收于每桶109.78美元。5、纽约黄金期货收跌0.2% 创两周新低纽约黄金期货价格周三收跌并创两周来的最低收盘价，录得连续第三个交易日录得跌幅。纽约商品交易所8月交割的黄金期货价格收跌3.70美元，跌幅为0.2%，报收于每盎司1817.50美元，创6月14日以来的最低收盘价。6、欧洲天然气涨8% 创三个月新高欧洲天然气强劲反弹。ICE英国天然气期货收涨4.42%，报174.12便士/千卡，脱离周二跌3%所创的6月13日上上周一以来低位；TTF基准荷兰天然气期货收涨8.03%，报139.588欧元/兆瓦时，创3月8日以来新高，继上周三和周四创3月11日以来新高后又创三个多月新高。国际宏观1、美国一季度GDP再遭下调！年化季率降幅扩大至1.6%当地时间周三（6月29日），美国经济分析局公布的最新报告再次下调了美国一季度国内生产总值（GDP）增速。具体数据显示，今年第一季度美国GDP年化季率下降了1.6%，这一降幅相比于经济学家预计的增长1.1%无疑是个巨大的打击。经济分析局的报告称，个人消费支出的疲软是本次下调的主要原因。值得一提的是，这已是一季度GDP的第二次下修。美国季度GDP会公布三次，4月份的初值报告中，GDP年化季率下降1.4%；在修正值报告中，这个降幅扩大至1.5%。报告还指出，创记录的贸易逆差拖累美国这一季的表现。2、鲍威尔称美国经济强劲 美联储可避免衰退美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三在葡萄牙辛特拉举行的欧洲央行年度政策论坛上的小组讨论中表示，美国经济状况“强劲”，央行可以在维持稳固劳动力市场的同时将通胀率降至2%，虽然最近几个月这个任务变得更具挑战性。鲍威尔说，在不引发经济衰退的情况下提高利率是“我们的目标，我们也相信有实现这一目标的途径”。3、民主党讨论削减加税幅度 希望使拜登一揽子经济计划未来几周获通过知情人士透露，美国参议院民主党人正在寻求降低总统乔·拜登经济一揽子计划中的加税幅度，希望以此与参议员乔·曼钦达成一致，并使该计划未来几周获得通过。知情人士说，正在考虑的调整将削弱众议院去年通过的一些加税措施，可能意味着美国企业和富有家庭最终的加税幅度都小于拜登和民主党最初的设想。4、美最高法院大法官布雷耶将于30日退休 继任者为拜登提名的杰克逊当地时间周三，美国联邦最高法院宣布，自由派大法官斯蒂芬·布雷耶(Stephen Breyer)将于30日正式退休，接任他的将是美国历史上第一位非裔女性大法官、拜登提名的凯坦吉·布朗·杰克逊(Ketanji Brown Jackson)。布雷耶现年83岁，自1994年以来一直在联邦最高法院任职，他被认为是最高法院的自由派，也是仅有的三名自由派大法官之一。因此，即使在换人之后，在美国最高法院中，保守派与自由派大法官的比例依旧为6:3，并没有改变当前的格局。5、美民调：78%的美国人认为拜登带领美国走错了道路美国晨间咨询公司（Morning Consult）与《政治报》（Politico）联合进行的一项民意调查显示，有78%参与调查的美国人认为总统拜登在政策上带领美国走错了道路。拜登上任后2021年2月下旬的民意调查中，有51%的受访者认为美国朝着错误的方向前进。这项数据自那以来增加了27个百分点。6、美环保组织联盟对拜登政府首次出售陆上油气钻探租约提起诉讼当地时间6月29日，由10个环保组织组成的联盟于28日晚间对拜登政府首次出售陆上油气钻探租约提起诉讼。这些环保组织表示，该租约违反了美国《国家环境政策法案》和《联邦土地政策和管理法案》，并指出额外的钻井将导致气候变化。7、报道称白宫正分析油价涨到200美元经济会怎样美东时间周三，据媒体报道称，拜登政府已经开始分析和模拟当国际油价达到每桶200美元之时将会对经济造成什么样的破坏，正如媒体所评论的：经济官员们并非在研究管理一个处于自然发展中的经济，从复苏进入一个稳定的增长期，而是在分析和模拟最坏的情况，比如油价达到每桶200美元的冲击对经济可能意味着什么。8、美国希望OPEC+近期增产后将有第二步跟进美国国务院能源安全高级顾问Amos Hochstein接受采访时表示，美国欢迎OPEC+本月早些时候加快石油供应增速的决定，称这是“态度的重大转变”。Hochstein希望OPEC+ 7月和8月增产64.8万桶/天的计划是其供应政策的“第一步”，随后将有“第二步”跟进。美国正在与仍然有闲置产能的OPEC国家会谈，将评估是否有必要在10月份以后进一步释放战略石油储备。9、美、伊、欧盟多哈会谈结束 未获得预期成果当地时间6月29日晚，伊朗、美国、欧盟三方旨在美国解除对伊制裁的谈判在卡塔尔首都多哈结束。欧盟对外行动署副秘书长莫拉表示， “我们尚未取得此前希望的进展，但我们将继续努力使伊核协议重回正轨。”10、欧盟谈判代表就加密软件反洗钱规则中的资金转移监管达成协议欧洲议会表示，欧盟谈判代表就加密软件反洗钱规则中的资金转移监管达成协议。11、德国内阁正在审议2023年财政预算草案 计划重新遵守“债务刹车”原则据德国政府内部人士当地时间6月29日透露，联邦内阁正在审议2023年的财政预算。受新冠疫情影响，德国已经连续三年打破“债务刹车”原则。根据联邦财政部长林德纳提交的预算草案，2023年，德国政府的贷款总额将下降至170亿欧元左右。因此，德国计划从明年开始重新遵守“债务刹车”原则。12、德国6月份通胀有所放缓 政府的临时救济措施减轻了通胀压力德国通胀意外放缓，因为政府的临时救济措施减轻了受到物价创纪录飙升挤压的家庭和企业的压力。周三公布的数据显示，燃油税下调和公共交通成本折扣帮助6月份消费者价格涨幅从5月的8.7%降至8.2%。接受调查的分析师之前预估为上升8.8%。13、芬兰总统：芬兰和瑞典最迟将于7月5日签署“入约”议定书当地时间6月29日，芬兰总统尼尼斯托在西班牙马德里举行的新闻发布会上表示，芬兰和瑞典最迟将于7月5日签署“入约”议定书。俄乌局势1、普京：俄对乌特别军事行动在战术层面可能有变化当地时间6月29日，俄罗斯总统普京表示，俄罗斯对乌克兰的特别军事行动目标不会改变，而在战术层面可能有变化。普京表示，西方国家呼吁乌克兰继续战斗证实了俄罗斯方面的猜想，即西方国家想保护的并不是乌克兰的利益，而是他们自身的利益。普京还表示，如果北约在芬兰和瑞典部署军事力量，俄罗斯方面将不得不采取应对措施。2、美司法部称已冻结3300亿美元俄罗斯寡头和银行资产美国司法部称，美国及其盟友已冻结了超过300亿美元的俄罗斯寡头的资产，相关专案组已经冻结了俄罗斯中央银行资金约3000亿美元。美国组建的俄罗斯精英、代理人和寡头（REPO）专案组发布了关于扣押俄罗斯商业巨头拥有的高价值财产的新细节。他们试图扣押这些巨头的奢侈品，包括价值数亿美元的游艇，对俄罗斯总统普京持续施加政治压力。司法部认为专案组工作“尚未完成”，在未来几个月里，专案组将继续追踪俄罗斯资产。针对西方国家不断扣押和冻结俄罗斯资产的行为，俄罗斯官方作出了回应。俄罗斯外交部发言人周三警告称，俄罗斯有权采取报复措施，比如同样可以没收西方国家在俄罗斯拥有的资产。3、乌克兰总统泽连斯基宣布中断与叙利亚的外交关系在叙利亚宣布承认“卢甘斯克人民共和国”和“顿涅茨克人民共和国”的主权和独立后，乌克兰总统泽连斯基当天晚间宣布中断该国与叙利亚的外交关系。泽连斯基在29日的例行视频中表示，“乌克兰和叙利亚之间将不再有关系”，并称乌克兰对叙利亚的制裁力度也将更大。4、英国首相约翰逊承诺再向乌克兰提供10亿英镑军事援助当地时间6月29日，在西班牙首都马德里举办的北约峰会上，英国首相约翰逊承诺将再向乌克兰提供价值10亿英镑的军事援助，这使得英国在本次俄乌冲突期间为乌克兰提供的军事援助资金达到23亿英镑。这笔资金将用于研发防空系统、无人飞行器、电子战设备等。5、国际评级机构惠誉：若俄天然气断供 部分中东欧国家将受重创国际评级机构惠誉在一份报告中说，如果俄罗斯对欧盟的天然气供应突然中断，将对部分中东欧国家产生严重影响，包括高通胀、经济负增长等。报告称，如果俄罗斯天然气断供，斯洛伐克、匈牙利和捷克所受的影响将最为严重，因为这些国家高度依赖俄罗斯天然气、缺少可替代产品。而波兰、立陶宛和罗马尼亚受到的影响较小，因为上述国家基本找到了替代能源或实现国内生产。公司新闻1、巴菲特重仓的食品巨头与连锁超市闹掰：不让涨价？下架！据英国当地媒体报道，由于美国食品生产商卡夫·亨氏与英国连锁超市乐购在涨价问题上谈崩，该公司的许多产品已经从该超市下架。众所周知，卡夫·亨氏也是巴菲特的爱股，伯克希尔目前持有公司26.61%的股权，是公司第一大股东。乐购发言人义正言辞地表示，很遗憾这一变化会导致许多产品下架，但超市不会将不合理的价格上涨转嫁给我们的客户，同时消费者也有“很多的替代选择”。随着英国家庭预算面临越来越大的压力，超市比以往任何时候都更有责任确保用户获得最佳的价值。2、特斯拉得州周产量达5000辆据汽车新闻网站Electrek援引知情人士消息称，特斯拉已经设法提高了其位于得州的超级工厂的产量，每周可交付多达5000辆汽车。这个工厂还生产长续航版Model Y，有助于提高整体产量。特斯拉的目标是在年底前将周产量提高到1万辆。3、礼来获批在中国开展Donanemab治疗早期症状性阿尔茨海默病的临床试验礼来中国宣布，其在中国申报的Donanemab注射液临床试验申请获得了国家药品监督管理局的批准。这是一项评估Donanemab治疗早期症状性阿尔茨海默病，包括阿尔茨海默病所致的轻度认知障碍以及轻度阿尔茨海默病的安全性和有效性的全球研究。4、辉瑞与美国政府签订32亿美元疫苗大单：每剂价格约为30.50美元当地时间周三，辉瑞公司表示，已同美国政府签订新的疫苗供应协议，美国政府将向辉瑞支付32亿美元，购买1.05亿剂新冠疫苗，预计最早将于今年夏末交付。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UGAZ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"QGmain":0.9,"DGAZ":0.9,"NGmain":0.9,"UNG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9042692122,"gmtCreate":1656465600566,"gmtModify":1676535834773,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9042692122","repostId":"1123245128","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123245128","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1656459709,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123245128?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-29 07:41","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | S&P returned to the bear market! Sister Wood shouts that the U.S. recession has arrived","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123245128","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①隔夜美股收跌，道指跌1.56%，纳指跌幅2.98%，标普500跌2.01%；②原油连涨3日创两周新高，黄金创两周新低；③美国6月消费者信心降至16个月来最低；④土耳其同意瑞典和芬兰加入北约，并","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: ① U.S. stocks closed down overnight, with the Dow falling 1.56%, the Nasdaq falling 2.98%, and the S&P 500 falling 2.01%; ② Crude oil rose for 3 consecutive days to a two-week high, and gold hit a two-week low; ③ Consumer confidence in the United States fell to the lowest level in 16 months in June; ④ Turkey agreed to Sweden and Finland join NATO and signed a tripartite memorandum. Overseas Market</p><p>1. U.S. stocks collectively closed down overnight, the Nasdaq fell nearly 3%, and large technology stocks were among the top losers</p><p>The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed down overnight. As of the close, the Dow fell 1.56% to 30,946.99 points; The Nasdaq fell 2.98% to 11181.54 points; The S&P 500 fell 2.01% to 3,821.56 points.</p><p>Big tech stocks were among the top losers, $AMD (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>) $(Advanced Micro Devices) fell more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Closed down 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>-A fell more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Fell nearly 3%.</p><p>2. Popular Chinese concept stocks were mixed on Tuesday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOUR\">Tuniu</a>Soared 47%</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks generally fell on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index falling 1.45% to close at 8034 points. Travel service concept stocks soared,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOUR\">Tuniu</a>Soared 47%, Ctrip rose more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HTHT\">Huazhu</a>The group rose more than 7%. In terms of news, the National Health and Medical Commission released the ninth edition of the novel coronavirus pneumonia prevention and control plan, which adjusted the isolation and control time of close contacts and immigrants from \"14 +7\" to \"7 +3\".</p><p>For other Chinese concept stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Down 0.9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Down 1.7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Down 3.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Down 3.5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Down 1.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Down 2.8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>It fell 3.2%. Among new energy vehicles,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Down 5.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Down 4.8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Automobiles fell more than 2% after short-selling agency Grizzly Research issued a report shorting<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">Nio</a>Automobiles, saying the company followed Valeant-style accounting games by inflating revenue and boosting net profit margins to reach its goals.</p><p>3. Major European stock indexes closed generally higher<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>Index rose 0.97%</p><p>Major European stock indexes closed generally higher on Tuesday, Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.35%, and the UK's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.100.UK\">FTSE 100 Index</a>It rose 0.97%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.64%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.3%.</p><p>4. New York crude oil futures closed up 2% on Tuesday, hitting a nearly two-week high</p><p>Crude oil futures prices in New York rose for a third straight session on Tuesday and rose to their highest level since mid-June. West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for August delivery rose $2.19, or 2%, to settle at $111.76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, its highest close since June 16.</p><p>Analysts pointed out that the easing of anti-epidemic policies in Asia has helped oil prices rise for three consecutive days after sharp declines in recent weeks. In addition, there are reports that the Emirates of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are approaching the ceiling of crude oil production capacity, which is in stark contrast to claims that the two countries have reservations about production capacity and will even continue to limit production.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 0.2% on Tuesday, the lowest closing price in nearly two weeks</p><p>Gold futures prices in New York recorded a second straight session of losses on Tuesday and posted their lowest close in nearly two weeks. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $3.60, or 0.2%, to close at $1,821.20 an ounce, the lowest closing price on June 15.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. U.S. consumer confidence fell to the lowest level in 16 months in June, and inflationary pressures continued to linger</p><p>U.S. consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since February 2021 in June as inflation continued to dampen Americans' outlook for the economy. Data released on Tuesday showed that the Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 98.7 from 103.2 revised downwards in May. The median expectation of economists surveyed was a drop to 100. As Americans become increasingly pessimistic about the outlook for the economy, employment and income, the indicator reflecting expectations for the next six months has dropped to its lowest level in nearly a decade. Indicators reflecting current conditions declined slightly.</p><p>2. Two Federal Reserve presidents are confident in the economy, saying that even rate hike and the United States can avoid recession</p><p>Although there is a possibility that the Federal Reserve will issue another 75 basis point rate hike next month, central bank officials believe that the risk of the U.S. economy falling into recession is not a concern. New York Fed President John Williams and San Francisco Fed head Mary Daly both acknowledged on Tuesday that the hottest inflation in 40 years must be cooled, but both insisted there was still hope for a soft landing. In addition, New York Fed President John Williams said that next month's meeting will discuss whether a rate hike of 50 or 75 basis points will depend on economic data.</p><p>3. The hot U.S. property market has cooled down for the first time since 2021</p><p>Data released on Tuesday showed that S&P<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLGX\">CoreLogic</a>The Case-Schiller National Home Price Index rose 20.4% year-on-year in April, down from 20.6% in the previous month. Craig Lazzara, managing director of S&P Dow Jones Indices, pointed out that the rise in U.S. home prices showed initial but inconsistent signs of deceleration. Mortgage rates have nearly doubled since the end of 2021. Rising interest rates, coupled with high house prices making it unaffordable for potential buyers, have also slowed down the housing market in hot cities that were popular during the pandemic. The slowdown in the housing market is having ripple effects across the industry. Mortgage lenders expect business to decline, including Compass Inc. and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RDFN\">Redfin Corp</a>Intermediaries including. are laying off employees.</p><p>4. The OPEC alliance's crude oil production since May 2020 has lagged behind its target by more than 500 million barrels</p><p>The OPEC + coalition of producers is supplying global markets more than 500 million barrels of oil below its pledged levels, fueling concerns about the group's ability to balance global markets. In May 2020, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) joined forces with allies to coordinate production cuts to rebalance the global oil market. Since then, OPEC + has produced 562 million barrels less than the level stipulated in the agreement, according to the group's Joint Technical Committee. OPEC + 's compliance rate with the production reduction agreement rose to 256% in May as members produced 2.7 million barrels per day below their group's collective target.</p><p>5. Turkey agrees that Sweden and Finland will join NATO and sign a tripartite memorandum</p><p>On June 28, local time, after negotiations between the heads of government of Turkey, Sweden and Finland and NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg, Turkey withdrew its resolution vetoing Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO and agreed that the above two countries would join NATO. After NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg held four-party talks with Turkish President Erdogan, Finnish President Niinisto and Swedish Prime Minister Andersson in Madrid, Spain, Turkey, Finland and Sweden signed a tripartite memorandum on Finland and Sweden's accession to NATO.</p><p>6. Putin signed a bill related to the legalization of parallel import of goods</p><p>On June 28, local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a bill on legalizing parallel imports of goods. The bill, proposed by the Russian government, aims to authorize the government to determine the goods to which the exclusive rights protection clause does not apply. Russian companies that import goods without the permission of the rights holder after the bill is signed can be exempted from possible civil, administrative and criminal responsibilities.</p><p>Alexander Zhukov, a member of the Economic Policy Committee of the Russian Federation Council, explained that the purpose of passing this bill is to \"reduce the price increase of imported goods caused by the actions of unfriendly countries\". The Economic Policy Committee of the Russian State Duma also pointed out that this bill will not only protect the interests of Russian consumers, but also generally promote the development of Russian economy under sanctions. At the beginning of May this year, the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade announced a list of more than 50 categories of commodities suitable for parallel imports, including plants, medicines, soaps, weapons and other different types of commodities.</p><p>7. Russia plans to link the grain export tax formula to the ruble</p><p>Russia plans to peg its grain export tax formula to the ruble.</p><p>8. France lowers its economic growth forecast for this year as the Russia-Ukraine conflict pushes up inflation</p><p>The French government cut its forecast for economic growth on Tuesday, underscoring the constraints President Emmanuel Macron faces as he struggles to repair COVID-19 pandemic-hit public finances and provide support for households plagued by inflation. The outlook for France, the euro zone's second-largest economy, has deteriorated significantly since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as soaring energy and food costs have curbed consumer spending. French finance ministry officials said the impact on supply chains driven by the omicron variant's rising infection rates in most parts of Europe also darkened the outlook.</p><p>9. Maxwell, a key figure in the \"Epstein case\", was sentenced to 20 years in prison</p><p>On June 28, local time, Ghislaine Maxwell, the ex-girlfriend of former American billionaire Jeffrey Epstein, was sentenced to 20 years in prison by federal prosecutors for helping Epstein sexually exploit and abuse underage women. The federal indictment alleges Maxwell repeatedly recruited young women for Epstein to engage in sex trafficking and was paid for it. Jeffrey Epstein is a former American billionaire who has close contacts with western upper class society. In July 2019, Epstein was indicted for sex trafficking with a minor and died mysteriously in prison a month later.</p><p>10. The First Minister of the Scottish Government proposed the second independence referendum plan</p><p>On the 28th local time, Sturgeon, the First Minister of the Scottish Government of the United Kingdom, elaborated the second independence referendum plan in the Scottish Parliament. She proposed in Parliament that a second independence referendum be held on October 19, 2023. The referendum question is the same as that of the 2014 referendum, namely, \"Should Scotland become an independent country?\" British Prime Minister Johnson said on the same day that Britain's top priority is to deal with economic pressure and soaring energy costs. The British government has previously said that now is not the time for another referendum.</p><p>11. Sri Lankan Energy Minister visits Qatar to seek energy support</p><p>On June 28, local time, Qatar's Minister of State for Energy Affairs Saad Kaabi met with Sri Lanka's Minister of Electricity and Energy Kanchana Wijesekera in the capital Doha. The two sides focused on energy issues, and Qatar stated that it would strengthen cooperation with Sri Lanka. energy cooperation. Recently, Sri Lanka is in deep economic crisis, and there is a large-scale shortage of gasoline, diesel and other fuels. In order to save energy, the Sri Lankan cabinet decided to provide fuel only to basic services from midnight on June 27th to July 10th, and sent several ministerial officials to Russia, Qatar and other countries to seek energy support.</p><p>12. South Korean consumer confidence hit a new low in more than a year in June due to inflation and rate hike</p><p>According to data released by the Bank of Korea on Tuesday, the consumer confidence index fell to 96.4 in June from 102.6 in May, the lowest since January 2021. The index below 100 indicates that there are more respondents with a pessimistic view than with an optimistic view. South Korea is one of the countries most vulnerable to global inflationary pressures because of its heavy reliance on external sources for energy and other commodities.</p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine</p><p>1. The United States announced a new round of sanctions against Russia and banned new imports of Russian gold</p><p>On June 28, local time, the U.S. government officially announced a series of new sanctions against Russia, including a ban on new imports of Russian gold. The U.S. Treasury Department issued a statement saying that it will impose new sanctions on 70 entities and 29 individuals in Russia, and all their property and property interests owned or controlled by or through Americans in the United States will be frozen. The Office of Foreign Assets Control of the U.S. Treasury Department also banned the import of Russian gold into the United States. At the same time, the U.S. State Department announced on the 28th that it would impose sanctions on 45 other Russian entities and 29 individuals. The State Department has also imposed visa restrictions on more than 500 Russian military officers and Russian officials.</p><p>2. Russia announces sanctions against Biden's wife and daughter</p><p>On June 28, according to the Russian Satellite News Agency, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs expanded its sanctions list against the United States and added 25 Americans to the list of people prohibited from entering the country, including the wife and daughter of US President Biden. The Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement: \"In response to the expanding sanctions imposed by the United States on Russian political and social figures, 25 American citizens have been included in the 'banned list', including those responsible for formulating anti-Russian policies and family members of President Biden.\"</p><p>3. NATO Secretary-General: Sanctions against Russia will undoubtedly have an impact on energy prices</p><p>On June 27, local time, NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg said in a speech at the NATO Public Forum held in Madrid, the capital of Spain, that the sanctions imposed on Russia have had an impact on energy prices, which is undeniable. Countries have paid a price for this, and EU countries are trying to get rid of their dependence on Russian imported energy. At the same time, he announced NATO's first goal to deal with climate change. NATO plans to achieve the goal of reducing carbon emissions by 40% by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.</p><p>4. German Chancellor: I hope to continue dialogue with Putin</p><p>On June 28, local time, German Chancellor Scholz expressed in an interview that he hoped to continue dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Scholz said that no new time has been agreed for the talks at present, but even if opinions differ, the need for mutual exchanges still exists</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1146846681\" target=\"_blank\">Overseas short-selling institutions accuse Nio of engaging in \"accounting games\"</a></p><p>On Tuesday local time, overseas short-selling agency Grizzly Research issued a short-selling report, accusing listed electric vehicle companies<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">Nio</a>(NIO) Make high financial report data through unconsolidated related parties. As a popular electric vehicle track stock recently, Nio's stock price has doubled in the past month and a half, and its market value of nearly US $40 billion has made it one of the most valuable car companies in the world. Grizzly said that in August 2020, Nio, industrial funds and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>Wuhan Weineng Battery Assets Co., Ltd. was established by other companies. After follow-up investment, Nio currently holds 19.8% of the shares of the battery company. Starting from the 2020 quarterly report, Nio's financial report performance began to significantly exceed the average market expectation. For example, Wall Street expects the company to lose 6 billion yuan in fiscal year 2021, but the final figure is only 3 billion yuan.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1171146618\" target=\"_blank\">Buffett increases his position in Occidental Petroleum again, increasing his stake ratio to 16.4%</a></p><p>Buffett's investment firm, according to the latest filings disclosed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway increased its holdings again on June 23<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>Stocks, at a price of US $55.39-56.09 per share, a total of 794,000 shares were purchased, spending approximately US $44 million, and the shareholding ratio increased to 16.4%. At present,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>It holds a total of 153.5 million shares of Occidental Petroleum. Based on Monday's closing price of $58.90, the shareholding is worth about $9.04 billion, making it Berkshire's sixth largest holding.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1170583209\" target=\"_blank\">Airbnb announces a global permanent ban: no \"parties\"</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABNB\">Airbnb</a>A permanent global ban on \"parties,\" including those with open invitations, was announced Tuesday. Two years ago, Airbnb imposed temporary restrictions on \"parties\". Airbnb said in a blog post: This temporary ban has proven effective. Since the implementation of this policy in August 2020, the reporting rate of \"parties\" has dropped by 44% year-on-year.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2247054379\" target=\"_blank\">Amazon Imposes Purchase Restrictions on Emergency Contraceptives</a></p><p>As the U.S. Supreme Court officially announced last Friday that it overturned the 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling and eliminated the constitutional right to abortion, the demand for contraceptives in the United States has soared rapidly. Amazon said Tuesday that it is temporarily limiting emergency contraceptive purchases to three pills per customer to ensure equitable consumer access and a continued supply of the drug. Chain pharmacy<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVS\">CVS Health</a>Said it is planning to lift purchase restrictions.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2246705795\" target=\"_blank\">Shanghai Disneyland will reopen on June 30</a></p><p>June 28, Shanghai<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Disney</a>The official WeChat official account of the resort announced that Shanghai Disneyland will resume operation on June 30th. At the beginning of the resumption of operation, most scenic spots, amusement projects, entertainment performances, shops and restaurants in the park will be opened on the basis of current restrictions, and operational measures will be taken to keep tourists' social distance. Experience programs such as Explorer Canoe and Marvel Heroes Headquarters remain closed for the time being. Visitors need to enter the resort with a green \"application code\" and a negative nucleic acid test certificate within 72 hours (from the sampling time). Visitors who only hold a nucleic acid sampling certificate within 24 hours but do not have a negative nucleic acid test certificate within 72 hours will not be able to enter the resort.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2247053910\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla cuts hundreds of self-driving unit employees in California</a></p><p>According to news on June 29, as Tesla closed a factory in California, the company laid off hundreds of employees in its Autopilot team, which is the largest layoff in the company's widespread layoffs. one. Sources said that the laid-off employees had been notified on Tuesday.</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1157047337\" target=\"_blank\">The world is guessing when the United States will fall into recession, Sister Wood: It has already begun</a></p><p>While Wall Street bosses are arguing about when the United States will fall into recession, \"Sister Wood\" Cathie Wood believes that the United States has fallen into an economic recession, and she admits that she underestimates the severity and persistence of inflation in the United States.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | S&P returned to the bear market! Sister Wood shouts that the U.S. recession has arrived</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | S&P returned to the bear market! Sister Wood shouts that the U.S. recession has arrived\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-29 07:41</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: ① U.S. stocks closed down overnight, with the Dow falling 1.56%, the Nasdaq falling 2.98%, and the S&P 500 falling 2.01%; ② Crude oil rose for 3 consecutive days to a two-week high, and gold hit a two-week low; ③ Consumer confidence in the United States fell to the lowest level in 16 months in June; ④ Turkey agreed to Sweden and Finland join NATO and signed a tripartite memorandum. Overseas Market</p><p>1. U.S. stocks collectively closed down overnight, the Nasdaq fell nearly 3%, and large technology stocks were among the top losers</p><p>The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed down overnight. As of the close, the Dow fell 1.56% to 30,946.99 points; The Nasdaq fell 2.98% to 11181.54 points; The S&P 500 fell 2.01% to 3,821.56 points.</p><p>Big tech stocks were among the top losers, $AMD (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>) $(Advanced Micro Devices) fell more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Closed down 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>-A fell more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Fell nearly 3%.</p><p>2. Popular Chinese concept stocks were mixed on Tuesday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOUR\">Tuniu</a>Soared 47%</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks generally fell on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index falling 1.45% to close at 8034 points. Travel service concept stocks soared,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOUR\">Tuniu</a>Soared 47%, Ctrip rose more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HTHT\">Huazhu</a>The group rose more than 7%. In terms of news, the National Health and Medical Commission released the ninth edition of the novel coronavirus pneumonia prevention and control plan, which adjusted the isolation and control time of close contacts and immigrants from \"14 +7\" to \"7 +3\".</p><p>For other Chinese concept stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Down 0.9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Down 1.7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Down 3.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Down 3.5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Down 1.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Down 2.8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>It fell 3.2%. Among new energy vehicles,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Down 5.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Down 4.8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Automobiles fell more than 2% after short-selling agency Grizzly Research issued a report shorting<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">Nio</a>Automobiles, saying the company followed Valeant-style accounting games by inflating revenue and boosting net profit margins to reach its goals.</p><p>3. Major European stock indexes closed generally higher<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>Index rose 0.97%</p><p>Major European stock indexes closed generally higher on Tuesday, Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.35%, and the UK's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.100.UK\">FTSE 100 Index</a>It rose 0.97%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.64%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.3%.</p><p>4. New York crude oil futures closed up 2% on Tuesday, hitting a nearly two-week high</p><p>Crude oil futures prices in New York rose for a third straight session on Tuesday and rose to their highest level since mid-June. West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for August delivery rose $2.19, or 2%, to settle at $111.76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, its highest close since June 16.</p><p>Analysts pointed out that the easing of anti-epidemic policies in Asia has helped oil prices rise for three consecutive days after sharp declines in recent weeks. In addition, there are reports that the Emirates of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are approaching the ceiling of crude oil production capacity, which is in stark contrast to claims that the two countries have reservations about production capacity and will even continue to limit production.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 0.2% on Tuesday, the lowest closing price in nearly two weeks</p><p>Gold futures prices in New York recorded a second straight session of losses on Tuesday and posted their lowest close in nearly two weeks. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $3.60, or 0.2%, to close at $1,821.20 an ounce, the lowest closing price on June 15.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. U.S. consumer confidence fell to the lowest level in 16 months in June, and inflationary pressures continued to linger</p><p>U.S. consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since February 2021 in June as inflation continued to dampen Americans' outlook for the economy. Data released on Tuesday showed that the Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 98.7 from 103.2 revised downwards in May. The median expectation of economists surveyed was a drop to 100. As Americans become increasingly pessimistic about the outlook for the economy, employment and income, the indicator reflecting expectations for the next six months has dropped to its lowest level in nearly a decade. Indicators reflecting current conditions declined slightly.</p><p>2. Two Federal Reserve presidents are confident in the economy, saying that even rate hike and the United States can avoid recession</p><p>Although there is a possibility that the Federal Reserve will issue another 75 basis point rate hike next month, central bank officials believe that the risk of the U.S. economy falling into recession is not a concern. New York Fed President John Williams and San Francisco Fed head Mary Daly both acknowledged on Tuesday that the hottest inflation in 40 years must be cooled, but both insisted there was still hope for a soft landing. In addition, New York Fed President John Williams said that next month's meeting will discuss whether a rate hike of 50 or 75 basis points will depend on economic data.</p><p>3. The hot U.S. property market has cooled down for the first time since 2021</p><p>Data released on Tuesday showed that S&P<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLGX\">CoreLogic</a>The Case-Schiller National Home Price Index rose 20.4% year-on-year in April, down from 20.6% in the previous month. Craig Lazzara, managing director of S&P Dow Jones Indices, pointed out that the rise in U.S. home prices showed initial but inconsistent signs of deceleration. Mortgage rates have nearly doubled since the end of 2021. Rising interest rates, coupled with high house prices making it unaffordable for potential buyers, have also slowed down the housing market in hot cities that were popular during the pandemic. The slowdown in the housing market is having ripple effects across the industry. Mortgage lenders expect business to decline, including Compass Inc. and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RDFN\">Redfin Corp</a>Intermediaries including. are laying off employees.</p><p>4. The OPEC alliance's crude oil production since May 2020 has lagged behind its target by more than 500 million barrels</p><p>The OPEC + coalition of producers is supplying global markets more than 500 million barrels of oil below its pledged levels, fueling concerns about the group's ability to balance global markets. In May 2020, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) joined forces with allies to coordinate production cuts to rebalance the global oil market. Since then, OPEC + has produced 562 million barrels less than the level stipulated in the agreement, according to the group's Joint Technical Committee. OPEC + 's compliance rate with the production reduction agreement rose to 256% in May as members produced 2.7 million barrels per day below their group's collective target.</p><p>5. Turkey agrees that Sweden and Finland will join NATO and sign a tripartite memorandum</p><p>On June 28, local time, after negotiations between the heads of government of Turkey, Sweden and Finland and NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg, Turkey withdrew its resolution vetoing Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO and agreed that the above two countries would join NATO. After NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg held four-party talks with Turkish President Erdogan, Finnish President Niinisto and Swedish Prime Minister Andersson in Madrid, Spain, Turkey, Finland and Sweden signed a tripartite memorandum on Finland and Sweden's accession to NATO.</p><p>6. Putin signed a bill related to the legalization of parallel import of goods</p><p>On June 28, local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a bill on legalizing parallel imports of goods. The bill, proposed by the Russian government, aims to authorize the government to determine the goods to which the exclusive rights protection clause does not apply. Russian companies that import goods without the permission of the rights holder after the bill is signed can be exempted from possible civil, administrative and criminal responsibilities.</p><p>Alexander Zhukov, a member of the Economic Policy Committee of the Russian Federation Council, explained that the purpose of passing this bill is to \"reduce the price increase of imported goods caused by the actions of unfriendly countries\". The Economic Policy Committee of the Russian State Duma also pointed out that this bill will not only protect the interests of Russian consumers, but also generally promote the development of Russian economy under sanctions. At the beginning of May this year, the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade announced a list of more than 50 categories of commodities suitable for parallel imports, including plants, medicines, soaps, weapons and other different types of commodities.</p><p>7. Russia plans to link the grain export tax formula to the ruble</p><p>Russia plans to peg its grain export tax formula to the ruble.</p><p>8. France lowers its economic growth forecast for this year as the Russia-Ukraine conflict pushes up inflation</p><p>The French government cut its forecast for economic growth on Tuesday, underscoring the constraints President Emmanuel Macron faces as he struggles to repair COVID-19 pandemic-hit public finances and provide support for households plagued by inflation. The outlook for France, the euro zone's second-largest economy, has deteriorated significantly since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as soaring energy and food costs have curbed consumer spending. French finance ministry officials said the impact on supply chains driven by the omicron variant's rising infection rates in most parts of Europe also darkened the outlook.</p><p>9. Maxwell, a key figure in the \"Epstein case\", was sentenced to 20 years in prison</p><p>On June 28, local time, Ghislaine Maxwell, the ex-girlfriend of former American billionaire Jeffrey Epstein, was sentenced to 20 years in prison by federal prosecutors for helping Epstein sexually exploit and abuse underage women. The federal indictment alleges Maxwell repeatedly recruited young women for Epstein to engage in sex trafficking and was paid for it. Jeffrey Epstein is a former American billionaire who has close contacts with western upper class society. In July 2019, Epstein was indicted for sex trafficking with a minor and died mysteriously in prison a month later.</p><p>10. The First Minister of the Scottish Government proposed the second independence referendum plan</p><p>On the 28th local time, Sturgeon, the First Minister of the Scottish Government of the United Kingdom, elaborated the second independence referendum plan in the Scottish Parliament. She proposed in Parliament that a second independence referendum be held on October 19, 2023. The referendum question is the same as that of the 2014 referendum, namely, \"Should Scotland become an independent country?\" British Prime Minister Johnson said on the same day that Britain's top priority is to deal with economic pressure and soaring energy costs. The British government has previously said that now is not the time for another referendum.</p><p>11. Sri Lankan Energy Minister visits Qatar to seek energy support</p><p>On June 28, local time, Qatar's Minister of State for Energy Affairs Saad Kaabi met with Sri Lanka's Minister of Electricity and Energy Kanchana Wijesekera in the capital Doha. The two sides focused on energy issues, and Qatar stated that it would strengthen cooperation with Sri Lanka. energy cooperation. Recently, Sri Lanka is in deep economic crisis, and there is a large-scale shortage of gasoline, diesel and other fuels. In order to save energy, the Sri Lankan cabinet decided to provide fuel only to basic services from midnight on June 27th to July 10th, and sent several ministerial officials to Russia, Qatar and other countries to seek energy support.</p><p>12. South Korean consumer confidence hit a new low in more than a year in June due to inflation and rate hike</p><p>According to data released by the Bank of Korea on Tuesday, the consumer confidence index fell to 96.4 in June from 102.6 in May, the lowest since January 2021. The index below 100 indicates that there are more respondents with a pessimistic view than with an optimistic view. South Korea is one of the countries most vulnerable to global inflationary pressures because of its heavy reliance on external sources for energy and other commodities.</p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine</p><p>1. The United States announced a new round of sanctions against Russia and banned new imports of Russian gold</p><p>On June 28, local time, the U.S. government officially announced a series of new sanctions against Russia, including a ban on new imports of Russian gold. The U.S. Treasury Department issued a statement saying that it will impose new sanctions on 70 entities and 29 individuals in Russia, and all their property and property interests owned or controlled by or through Americans in the United States will be frozen. The Office of Foreign Assets Control of the U.S. Treasury Department also banned the import of Russian gold into the United States. At the same time, the U.S. State Department announced on the 28th that it would impose sanctions on 45 other Russian entities and 29 individuals. The State Department has also imposed visa restrictions on more than 500 Russian military officers and Russian officials.</p><p>2. Russia announces sanctions against Biden's wife and daughter</p><p>On June 28, according to the Russian Satellite News Agency, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs expanded its sanctions list against the United States and added 25 Americans to the list of people prohibited from entering the country, including the wife and daughter of US President Biden. The Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement: \"In response to the expanding sanctions imposed by the United States on Russian political and social figures, 25 American citizens have been included in the 'banned list', including those responsible for formulating anti-Russian policies and family members of President Biden.\"</p><p>3. NATO Secretary-General: Sanctions against Russia will undoubtedly have an impact on energy prices</p><p>On June 27, local time, NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg said in a speech at the NATO Public Forum held in Madrid, the capital of Spain, that the sanctions imposed on Russia have had an impact on energy prices, which is undeniable. Countries have paid a price for this, and EU countries are trying to get rid of their dependence on Russian imported energy. At the same time, he announced NATO's first goal to deal with climate change. NATO plans to achieve the goal of reducing carbon emissions by 40% by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.</p><p>4. German Chancellor: I hope to continue dialogue with Putin</p><p>On June 28, local time, German Chancellor Scholz expressed in an interview that he hoped to continue dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Scholz said that no new time has been agreed for the talks at present, but even if opinions differ, the need for mutual exchanges still exists</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1146846681\" target=\"_blank\">Overseas short-selling institutions accuse Nio of engaging in \"accounting games\"</a></p><p>On Tuesday local time, overseas short-selling agency Grizzly Research issued a short-selling report, accusing listed electric vehicle companies<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">Nio</a>(NIO) Make high financial report data through unconsolidated related parties. As a popular electric vehicle track stock recently, Nio's stock price has doubled in the past month and a half, and its market value of nearly US $40 billion has made it one of the most valuable car companies in the world. Grizzly said that in August 2020, Nio, industrial funds and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>Wuhan Weineng Battery Assets Co., Ltd. was established by other companies. After follow-up investment, Nio currently holds 19.8% of the shares of the battery company. Starting from the 2020 quarterly report, Nio's financial report performance began to significantly exceed the average market expectation. For example, Wall Street expects the company to lose 6 billion yuan in fiscal year 2021, but the final figure is only 3 billion yuan.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1171146618\" target=\"_blank\">Buffett increases his position in Occidental Petroleum again, increasing his stake ratio to 16.4%</a></p><p>Buffett's investment firm, according to the latest filings disclosed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway increased its holdings again on June 23<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>Stocks, at a price of US $55.39-56.09 per share, a total of 794,000 shares were purchased, spending approximately US $44 million, and the shareholding ratio increased to 16.4%. At present,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>It holds a total of 153.5 million shares of Occidental Petroleum. Based on Monday's closing price of $58.90, the shareholding is worth about $9.04 billion, making it Berkshire's sixth largest holding.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1170583209\" target=\"_blank\">Airbnb announces a global permanent ban: no \"parties\"</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABNB\">Airbnb</a>A permanent global ban on \"parties,\" including those with open invitations, was announced Tuesday. Two years ago, Airbnb imposed temporary restrictions on \"parties\". Airbnb said in a blog post: This temporary ban has proven effective. Since the implementation of this policy in August 2020, the reporting rate of \"parties\" has dropped by 44% year-on-year.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2247054379\" target=\"_blank\">Amazon Imposes Purchase Restrictions on Emergency Contraceptives</a></p><p>As the U.S. Supreme Court officially announced last Friday that it overturned the 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling and eliminated the constitutional right to abortion, the demand for contraceptives in the United States has soared rapidly. Amazon said Tuesday that it is temporarily limiting emergency contraceptive purchases to three pills per customer to ensure equitable consumer access and a continued supply of the drug. Chain pharmacy<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVS\">CVS Health</a>Said it is planning to lift purchase restrictions.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2246705795\" target=\"_blank\">Shanghai Disneyland will reopen on June 30</a></p><p>June 28, Shanghai<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Disney</a>The official WeChat official account of the resort announced that Shanghai Disneyland will resume operation on June 30th. At the beginning of the resumption of operation, most scenic spots, amusement projects, entertainment performances, shops and restaurants in the park will be opened on the basis of current restrictions, and operational measures will be taken to keep tourists' social distance. Experience programs such as Explorer Canoe and Marvel Heroes Headquarters remain closed for the time being. Visitors need to enter the resort with a green \"application code\" and a negative nucleic acid test certificate within 72 hours (from the sampling time). Visitors who only hold a nucleic acid sampling certificate within 24 hours but do not have a negative nucleic acid test certificate within 72 hours will not be able to enter the resort.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2247053910\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla cuts hundreds of self-driving unit employees in California</a></p><p>According to news on June 29, as Tesla closed a factory in California, the company laid off hundreds of employees in its Autopilot team, which is the largest layoff in the company's widespread layoffs. one. Sources said that the laid-off employees had been notified on Tuesday.</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1157047337\" target=\"_blank\">The world is guessing when the United States will fall into recession, Sister Wood: It has already begun</a></p><p>While Wall Street bosses are arguing about when the United States will fall into recession, \"Sister Wood\" Cathie Wood believes that the United States has fallen into an economic recession, and she admits that she underestimates the severity and persistence of inflation in the United States.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123245128","content_text":"摘要：①隔夜美股收跌，道指跌1.56%，纳指跌幅2.98%，标普500跌2.01%；②原油连涨3日创两周新高，黄金创两周新低；③美国6月消费者信心降至16个月来最低；④土耳其同意瑞典和芬兰加入北约，并签署三方备忘录。海外市场1、隔夜美股集体收跌 纳指跌近3%大型科技股跌幅居前隔夜美股三大指数集体收跌，截至收盘，道指跌1.56%，报30946.99点；纳指跌2.98%，报11181.54点；标普500指数跌2.01%，报3821.56点。大型科技股跌幅居前，$AMD(AMD)$(超威半导体)跌超6%，英伟达、亚马逊跌超5%，特斯拉收跌5%，微软、谷歌-A跌超3%，苹果跌近3%。2、热门中概股周二涨跌不一途牛暴涨47%热门中概股周二普遍下跌，纳斯达克金龙指数下跌1.45%，收于8034点。旅行服务概念股大涨，途牛暴涨47%，携程涨超10%，华住集团涨超7%。消息面，国家卫健委发布第九版新冠肺炎防控方案，将密切接触者、入境人员隔离管控时间从“14+7”调整为“7+3”。其他中概股方面，百度跌0.9%，京东和阿里巴巴跌1.7%，哔哩哔哩跌3.4%，腾讯跌3.5%，贝壳跌1.4%，拼多多跌2.8%，新东方跌3.2%。新能源汽车中，理想汽车跌5.6%，小鹏汽车跌4.8%，蔚来汽车跌超2%，此前做空机构Grizzly Research发表报告做空蔚来汽车，称该公司效仿Valeant式的会计游戏，通过夸大收入和提高净利润率来达到目标。3、欧股主要指数收盘普涨 英国富时100指数涨0.97%欧股主要指数周二收盘普涨，德国DAX30指数涨0.35%，英国富时100指数涨0.97%，法国CAC40指数跌0.64%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.3%。4、纽约原油期货周二收高2% 创近两周新高纽约原油期货价格周二连续第三个交易日上涨，并升至6月中旬以来的最高水平。纽约商品交易所8月交割的西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)期货价格上涨2.19美元，涨幅为2%，收于每桶111.76美元，创6月16日以来的最高收盘价。分析师指出，亚洲抗疫政策的放松，帮助油价在最近几周出现大幅下跌之后连续三日上涨。此外，有报道称阿联酋酋长国与沙特正在接近原油产能上限，这与两国在产能方面有所保留、甚至还会继续限制产量的说法形成了鲜明的对比。5、纽约黄金期货周二收跌0.2% 创近两周来最低收盘价纽约黄金期货价格周二录得连续第二个交易日下跌，并创近两周来的最低收盘价。纽约商品交易所8月交割的黄金期货价格下跌3.60美元，跌幅为0.2%，收于每盎司1821.20美元，为6月15日的最低收盘价。国际宏观1、美国6月消费者信心降至16个月来最低 通胀压力持续萦绕美国6月消费者信心指数降至2021年2月以来最低水平，因通胀继续抑制美国人对经济的展望。周二公布的数据显示，世界大型企业研究会消费者信心指数从5月份下修后的103.2降至98.7。接受调查的经济学家预期中值为下降至100。由于美国人对经济、就业和收入前景越来越悲观，反映未来6个月预期的指标降至近十年来最低位。反映当前状况的指标小幅下降。2、美联储两位行长对经济有信心 称即使加息美国也可以避免衰退尽管美联储存在下个月再次加息75个基点的可能，但央行官员认为美国经济陷入衰退的风险不足为虑。纽约联储行长John Williams和旧金山联储掌门Mary Daly周二都承认，必须给40年来最热的通胀降温，但也双双坚持认为软着陆仍有希望。此外，纽约联储行长John Williams表示，下个月的会议上将讨论是加息50个还是75个基点，具体决定要取决于经济数据。3、热的美国楼市出现2021年以来首次降温周二公布的数据显示，标普CoreLogic凯斯-席勒全美房价指数4月同比上涨20.4%，低于前月的20.6%。标普道琼斯指数公司董事总经理Craig Lazzara指出，美国房价涨势显现出了初步、但不一致的减速迹象。抵押贷款利率自2021年底以来已经几乎翻了一倍。利率上升，加上高企的房价令潜在买家感到难以负担，疫情中深受欢迎的大热城市房地产市场也开始放缓。房地产市场放缓正在整个行业产生连锁反应。抵押贷款机构预计业务将下滑，包括Compass Inc.和Redfin Corp.在内的中介机构都在裁员。4、OPEC+联盟自2020年5月以来的原油产量落后目标超过5亿桶OPEC+产油国联盟向全球市场供应的石油比其承诺的水平低了超过5亿桶，加剧了对该组织平衡全球市场能力的担忧。在2020年5月，石油输出国组织(OPEC)与盟友联手协调减产，以重新平衡全球石油市场。根据该组织联合技术委员会的数据，自那以来，OPEC+的累计产量比协议规定的水平少5.62亿桶。OPEC+对减产协议的履约率在5月份升至256%，因为成员国日产量比其该组织的集体目标低270万桶。5、土耳其同意瑞典和芬兰加入北约 并签署三方备忘录当地时间6月28日，在土耳其、瑞典和芬兰三国政府首脑与北约秘书长斯托尔滕贝格进行谈判过后，土耳其撤回了否决瑞典和芬兰两国加入北约的决议，同意上述两国加入北约。北约秘书长斯托尔滕贝格同土耳其总统埃尔多安、芬兰总统尼尼斯托和瑞典首相安德松在西班牙马德里举行四方会谈后，土耳其、芬兰和瑞典签署了关于芬兰和瑞典加入北约的三方备忘录。6、普京签署商品平行进口合法化相关法案当地时间6月28日，俄罗斯总统普京签署了有关商品平行进口合法化的法案。该法案由俄罗斯政府提出，旨在授权政府确定不适用专属权利保护条款的商品，法案签署后未经权利持有人许可而进口商品的俄罗斯公司可以不承担可能的民事、行政和刑事责任。俄罗斯联邦委员会经济政策委员会成员亚历山大·茹科夫解释说，通过这项法案的目的是“降低由于不友好国家的行为造成的进口商品价格涨幅”。俄国家杜马经济政策委员会也指出，这项法案在保障俄国内消费者的利益的同时，也将总体上促进制裁条件下俄罗斯经济的发展。今年5月初，俄罗斯工贸部公布了50多类适用于平行进口的商品清单，其中包括植物、药物、肥皂、武器等多种不同类型的商品。7、俄罗斯计划将谷物出口税公式与卢布挂钩俄罗斯计划将谷物出口税公式与卢布挂钩。8、法国下调今年的经济增长预测 因俄乌冲突推升通胀率法国政府周二下调其对经济增长的预测，在总统马克龙正努力修复遭受新冠疫情打击的公共财政并为饱受通胀之苦的家庭提供支持之际，这凸显了他所面对的制约。自俄乌冲突以来，法国这一欧元区第二大经济体的前景已显著恶化，因为能源和食品成本飙升抑制了消费者支出。法国财政部官员表示，omicron变种推动欧洲大部分地区感染率上升对供应链的影响，也令前景黯淡。9、“爱泼斯坦案”关键人物马克斯韦尔被判处20年监禁当地时间6月28日，美国前亿万富翁杰弗里·爱泼斯坦的前女友吉丝兰·马克斯韦尔(Ghislaine Maxwell)因帮助爱泼斯坦对未成年女性进行性剥削和虐待等罪名被联邦检察官判处20年监禁。联邦起诉书称，马克斯韦尔多次为爱泼斯坦招募年轻女子进行性交易并从中得到报酬。杰弗里·爱泼斯坦是美国前亿万富翁，与西方上流社会交往甚密。2019年7月，爱泼斯坦因与未成年人性交易被起诉，一个月后在狱中离奇死亡。10、英国苏格兰政府首席大臣提出第二次独立公投计划当地时间28日，英国苏格兰政府首席大臣斯特金在苏格兰议会阐述了第二次独立公投计划。她在议会提议，于2023年10月19日举行第二次独立公投。公投问题与2014年公投的问题相同，即“苏格兰应该成为一个独立的国家吗？”英国首相约翰逊当天表示，英国的首要任务是应对经济压力和能源成本飙升。英国政府此前表示，现在不是进行另一次公投的时候。11、斯里兰卡能源部长访问卡塔尔 寻求能源支持当地时间6月28日，卡塔尔能源事务国务大臣萨阿德·卡比在首都多哈会见斯里兰卡电力和能源部长坎恰纳·维杰塞克拉，双方重点讨论了能源问题，卡方表示将加强与斯里兰卡的能源合作。近期，斯里兰卡深陷经济危机，汽油、柴油等燃料大规模短缺。为节省能源，斯里兰卡内阁决定从6月27日午夜至7月10日仅向基本服务提供燃料，同时派出数名部长级官员前往俄罗斯、卡塔尔等国寻求能源支持。12、韩国6月消费者信心创一年多新低 因通胀和加息影响据韩国央行周二发表的数据显示，6月消费者信心指数从5月的102.6降至96.4，创2021年1月以来最低。该指数低于100表明，持悲观看法的受访者多于持乐观看法的受访者。韩国是最容易受到全球通胀压力影响的国家之一，因为其在能源和其他大宗商品方面严重依赖外部来源。俄乌局势1、美国公布新一轮对俄制裁 禁止新进口俄罗斯黄金当地时间6月28日，美国政府正式宣布对俄罗斯采取一系列新制裁措施，包括禁止新进口俄罗斯黄金。美国财政部发表声明称，将对俄罗斯70个实体和29名个人实施新的制裁，其在美国的或通过美国人拥有或控制的所有财产和财产权益均被冻结。美财政部外国资产控制办公室还禁止将俄罗斯的黄金进口到美国。同时，美国国务院28日宣布对俄罗斯另外45个实体和29名个人实施制裁。美国国务院还对500多名俄罗斯军官和俄罗斯官员实施签证限制。2、俄罗斯宣布制裁拜登妻子和女儿6月28日，据俄罗斯卫星通讯社报道，俄罗斯外交部扩大对美制裁名单，向禁止入境人员名单中新增了25名美国人，其中包括美国总统拜登的妻子和女儿。俄外交部声明说：“作为针对美国对俄政治和社会人士不断扩大制裁的回应，25名美国公民被列入‘被禁名单’，其中包括负责制定反俄方针的人员以及拜登总统的家庭成员。”3、北约秘书长：制裁俄罗斯无疑对能源价格存在影响当地时间6月27日，北约秘书长斯托尔滕贝格在西班牙首都马德里举行的北约公共论坛演讲中表示，对俄罗斯进行的制裁对于能源价格产生了影响，这是不可否认的，各国为此付出了代价，欧盟各国正设法摆脱对俄罗斯进口能源的依赖。他同时宣布了北约首个应对气候变化的目标，北约计划到2030年实现减少40%的碳排放量的目标，到2050年实现碳中和。4、德国总理：希望继续与普京进行对话当地时间6月28日，德国总理朔尔茨在接受采访时表示，希望继续与俄罗斯总统普京进行对话。朔尔茨表示，眼下没有约定新的会谈时间，不过即使意见不同，展开相互交流的必要性也仍然存在公司新闻1、海外做空机构指责蔚来搞“会计游戏”当地时间周二，海外做空机构灰熊(Grizzly Research)发表做空报告，指责电动车上市公司蔚来(NIO)通过未合并关联方做高财报数据。作为近期热门的电动车赛道股，蔚来汽车的股价在过去一个半月里翻了一番，接近400亿美元的市值也令其成为全球最值钱的汽车公司之一。灰熊表示，2020年8月蔚来、产业基金和宁德时代等公司组建了武汉蔚能电池资产有限公司，经过后续投资，目前蔚来掌握电池公司19.8%的股权。后续从2020年四季报开始，蔚来财报业绩开始大幅超出市场平均预期。举例而言，2021财年华尔街预期公司亏损60亿人民币，但最终的数据只有30亿。2、巴菲特再次加仓西方石油将持股比例提升至16.4%据美国证券交易委员会(SEC)披露的最新文件显示，巴菲特旗下投资公司伯克希尔哈撒韦于6月23日再度增持西方石油股票，以每股55.39-56.09美元的价格，合计买入79.4万股股票，斥资约4400万美元，持股比例提升至16.4%。目前，伯克希尔共持有西方石油总计1.535亿股，按周一收盘价58.90美元计算，持股价值约为90.4亿美元，为伯克希尔第六大持仓股。3、爱彼迎宣布全球性永久禁令：禁止“派对”爱彼迎周二宣布了一项永久性全球“派对”禁令，包括公开邀请的聚会。两年前，爱彼迎曾对“派对”进行了临时限制。爱彼迎在一篇博客文章中称：这项临时禁令已被证明是有效的。自2020年8月实施这项政策以来，“派对”的报告率同比下降了44%。4、亚马逊对紧急避孕药实行限购随着美国最高法院上周五正式宣布推翻了1973年“罗诉韦德案”(Roe v. Wade)的裁决，取消宪法规定的堕胎权，美国避孕药需求快速飙升。亚马逊周二表示，暂时将每名顾客的紧急避孕药购买量限制在3片，以确保消费者的公平获取和对该药品的持续供应。连锁药店CVS健康表示，正在计划取消购买限制。5、上海迪士尼乐园将于6月30日重新开放6月28日，上海迪士尼度假区官方公众号发布公告，上海迪士尼乐园将于6月30日恢复运营。恢复运营初期，乐园内大部分景点、游乐项目、娱乐演出、商店及餐厅将在限流基础上开放，并采取运营措施保持游客社交距离。探险家独木舟、漫威英雄总部等体验项目暂时保持关闭。游客需持绿色“随申码”及72小时内(从采样时间起算)核酸检测阴性证明进入度假区，仅持有24小时内核酸采样证明而无72小时内核酸检测阴性证明的游客将不能进入度假区。6、特斯拉在加州裁减数百名自动驾驶部门员工6月29日消息，由于特斯拉关闭了美国加州的一处工厂，该公司裁掉了其自动驾驶(Autopilot)团队的数百名员工，这是该公司广泛裁员情况下规模较大的裁员之一。 消息人士称，被裁员工已经在周二得到通知。7、世界都在猜美国什么时候陷入衰退，木头姐：已经开始了就在华尔街的大佬们为美国到底什么时候陷入衰退争论不休的时候，“木头姐”Cathie Wood则认为，美国已经陷入经济衰退，她承认自己低估了美国通胀的严重性和持续性。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"ESmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":608,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9046450353,"gmtCreate":1656378993672,"gmtModify":1676535817654,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9046450353","repostId":"2246874171","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2246874171","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1656366224,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2246874171?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-28 05:43","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Foreign media headlines | Goldman Sachs says U.S. interest rate market underestimates recession risk","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2246874171","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"白宫：七国集团将对俄罗斯实施进一步制裁当地时间6月27日，美国白宫发表声明称，美国总统拜登当日将与七国集团领导人和乌克兰总统泽连斯基会面，七国集团将发表对俄罗斯的新制裁措施。欧盟考虑降低天然气需求 以应对俄罗斯供应中断风险俄罗斯供应减少对欧盟在应对俄乌冲突方面的团结性构成考验之际，欧盟正在寻找降低天然气需求的方法，以避免能源市场各自为政。瑞信集团因未能阻止毒贩的洗钱行为而受到指控。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>: U.S. interest rate market underestimates recession risk</b><b>2. White House: G7 will impose further sanctions on Russia</b><b>3. EU considers reducing natural gas demand to cope with the risk of Russian supply disruptions</b><b>4. The number of second-hand housing contracts in the United States unexpectedly increased month-on-month in May, temporarily ending the six-month downward trend</b><b>5. The European Central Bank, which is brewing its first rate hike in more than ten years, announced that it will postpone the announcement of the resolution starting next month</b><b>6. Switzerland's Supreme Criminal Court made a historic ruling and found Credit Suisse guilty of money laundering case</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a3d2181796ca2050515544f80928f0d\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Goldman Sachs: U.S. interest rate market underestimates recession risk</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs' interest rate strategists believe the U.S. market underestimates the risk of a 2024 recession, and the bank joins recent popular bets on a dovish Fed policy.</p><p>Strategist Praveen Korapaty said in a note on June 24 that while market expectations for the Fed's policy rate have fallen to a limited downside in early 2023 in the past few weeks, investors are still underestimating recession risks in pricing 2024 Federal Funds rate. High inflation risks complicate the impact of recession fears on the slope of the yield curve.</p><p>To profit from this mispricing in the market, Goldman Sachs recommends betting on the flattening of the March 2023 and March 2024 Eurodollar contract curve, selling bullish positions on the March 2023 futures contract and going long on the March 2024 futures contract.</p><p>They wrote: \"We believe that this structure should perform well at the beginning of an economic recession, and the risk comes from an immediate recession or a very long interest rate hike cycle\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10668f7833f1d0e8a715914e4aa245d9\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>White House: G7 to Impose Further Sanctions on Russia</b></p><p>On June 27, local time, the White House issued a statement stating that US President Biden will meet with the leaders of the Group of Seven and Ukrainian President Zelensky that day, and the Group of Seven will announce new sanctions against Russia.</p><p>The White House statement said that major new sanctions that the United States will impose in coordination with the G7 include: imposing sanctions on hundreds of individuals and entities, imposing tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of Russian products, and imposing sanctions on Russian military production and supply chains.</p><p>G7 leaders will adjust and expand targeted sanctions to further restrict Russia's access to critical services and technologies, restrict Russia's participation in global markets, and further combat its circumvention attempts. In addition, the G7 has pledged to provide budgetary and other support for Ukraine.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5825690a829be73bbba9102468391a83\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>EU considers reducing gas demand to counter risk of Russian supply disruption</b></p><p>The bloc is looking for ways to reduce gas demand to avoid fragmented energy markets as reduced Russian supplies test the bloc's unity in dealing with the Russia-Ukraine conflict.</p><p>The increase in gas supply disruptions after the EU imposed sanctions on Russia has prompted member states to step up preparations for winter, seeking to replenish stocks that have been depleted. At a ministerial meeting in Luxembourg on Monday, EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson urged more energy-saving measures and efficiency improvements to reduce the possibility of implementing gas rationing. German Economy Minister Robert Habeck has warned of possible gas shortages in the country and called for European solidarity.</p><p>\"We are trying to avoid or minimize potential cuts, and the preparedness package planned for July will propose precautionary demand reduction measures,\" Simson told reporters after the ministerial meeting.</p><p>The biggest challenge facing the EU is ensuring there are sufficient reserves to cope with peak demand for heating and electricity in winter. Adequate reserves can also act as a buffer, allowing gas to be transported across borders within the EU to ensure that all member states are well supplied. If the crisis escalates, countries can help each other.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e9e0d8823968f5f609d0e74bcc8a643\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>U.S. second-hand housing contracts unexpectedly rose month-on-month in May, temporarily ending a six-month downward trend</b></p><p>A measure of the number of second-hand housing contracts in the United States unexpectedly rose for the first time in seven months in May, but it was just a short respite for the property market in an environment where mortgage interest rates continued to rise.</p><p>According to data released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) on Monday, the number of second-hand housing contracts increased by 0.7% month-on-month to 99.9% in October. The median economists surveyed expected a 4% decline.</p><p>Unadjusted second-hand housing contracts fell 12% year-over-year.</p><p>NAR pointed out that based on the median price of single-family homes calculated at a 10% down payment ratio, monthly mortgage loans have increased by about $800 since the beginning of the year.</p><p>Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR, said in the statement that \"although second-hand home sales increased slightly from the previous month, the housing market is clearly undergoing a transformation\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/241b6b28db1344e807a32223ed96eb0f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The European Central Bank, which is brewing its first rate hike in more than a decade, announced that it will postpone the announcement of its decision starting next month</b></p><p>If you're waiting for the ECB's first rate hike in more than a decade, you'll have to wait an extra 30 minutes.</p><p>According to the statement issued on Monday, the next decision and future announcements of the European Central Bank Governing Council will be postponed for half an hour, that is, until 2: 15pm Frankfurt time. President Christine Lagarde's press conference will also be postponed by 15 minutes-it will start at 2: 45pm.</p><p>Lagarde and her colleagues \"predicted\" that a possible rate hike of 25 basis points at the July 21st meeting would be the first rate hike since 2011.</p><p>A spokesman for the European Central Bank called this change a \"minor technical adjustment\" and did not comment on it.</p><p>Reasons may include: needing more time to prepare the announcement after the decision is made, or wanting to avoid the president's opening speech coinciding with the release of U.S. economic data (U.S. data is often released at 2:30 Frankfurt time on Thursdays). Or, it's possible that officials were just hoping for a longer lunch break.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d607c5341e8111e8ba68b791ffda10e\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Switzerland's Supreme Criminal Court makes historic ruling, Credit Suisse convicted of money laundering case</b></p><p>Cocaine, hiding cash, unlucky Bulgarian wrestlers … these details attracted the attention of the Swiss financial industry during the days of the court hearing in February. Credit Suisse has been charged for failing to stop money laundering by drug dealers.</p><p>On Monday afternoon, Switzerland's highest criminal court handed down its verdict, making Credit Suisse the first large bank in Swiss history to be convicted in a criminal case. The former Credit Suisse customer relationship manager involved in the case was found guilty of money laundering and sentenced to 20 months in prison with suspended execution.</p><p>Credit Suisse faces a fine of 2 million Swiss francs ($2.1 million) and is required to pay 19 million Swiss francs, equivalent to the amount of money laundered condoned by the bank.</p><p>The verdict is another heavy blow to Credit Suisse's reputation, which has previously argued that the crime dates back to a time when the bank's compliance standards were less stringent. Credit Suisse has been grappling with a series of scandals, and its share price has so far fallen near record lows. Its share price may face criminal charges for the second time this year in another case unrelated to this case.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign media headlines | Goldman Sachs says U.S. interest rate market underestimates recession risk</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign media headlines | Goldman Sachs says U.S. interest rate market underestimates recession risk\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-28 05:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>: U.S. interest rate market underestimates recession risk</b><b>2. White House: G7 will impose further sanctions on Russia</b><b>3. EU considers reducing natural gas demand to cope with the risk of Russian supply disruptions</b><b>4. The number of second-hand housing contracts in the United States unexpectedly increased month-on-month in May, temporarily ending the six-month downward trend</b><b>5. The European Central Bank, which is brewing its first rate hike in more than ten years, announced that it will postpone the announcement of the resolution starting next month</b><b>6. Switzerland's Supreme Criminal Court made a historic ruling and found Credit Suisse guilty of money laundering case</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a3d2181796ca2050515544f80928f0d\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Goldman Sachs: U.S. interest rate market underestimates recession risk</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs' interest rate strategists believe the U.S. market underestimates the risk of a 2024 recession, and the bank joins recent popular bets on a dovish Fed policy.</p><p>Strategist Praveen Korapaty said in a note on June 24 that while market expectations for the Fed's policy rate have fallen to a limited downside in early 2023 in the past few weeks, investors are still underestimating recession risks in pricing 2024 Federal Funds rate. High inflation risks complicate the impact of recession fears on the slope of the yield curve.</p><p>To profit from this mispricing in the market, Goldman Sachs recommends betting on the flattening of the March 2023 and March 2024 Eurodollar contract curve, selling bullish positions on the March 2023 futures contract and going long on the March 2024 futures contract.</p><p>They wrote: \"We believe that this structure should perform well at the beginning of an economic recession, and the risk comes from an immediate recession or a very long interest rate hike cycle\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10668f7833f1d0e8a715914e4aa245d9\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>White House: G7 to Impose Further Sanctions on Russia</b></p><p>On June 27, local time, the White House issued a statement stating that US President Biden will meet with the leaders of the Group of Seven and Ukrainian President Zelensky that day, and the Group of Seven will announce new sanctions against Russia.</p><p>The White House statement said that major new sanctions that the United States will impose in coordination with the G7 include: imposing sanctions on hundreds of individuals and entities, imposing tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of Russian products, and imposing sanctions on Russian military production and supply chains.</p><p>G7 leaders will adjust and expand targeted sanctions to further restrict Russia's access to critical services and technologies, restrict Russia's participation in global markets, and further combat its circumvention attempts. In addition, the G7 has pledged to provide budgetary and other support for Ukraine.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5825690a829be73bbba9102468391a83\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>EU considers reducing gas demand to counter risk of Russian supply disruption</b></p><p>The bloc is looking for ways to reduce gas demand to avoid fragmented energy markets as reduced Russian supplies test the bloc's unity in dealing with the Russia-Ukraine conflict.</p><p>The increase in gas supply disruptions after the EU imposed sanctions on Russia has prompted member states to step up preparations for winter, seeking to replenish stocks that have been depleted. At a ministerial meeting in Luxembourg on Monday, EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson urged more energy-saving measures and efficiency improvements to reduce the possibility of implementing gas rationing. German Economy Minister Robert Habeck has warned of possible gas shortages in the country and called for European solidarity.</p><p>\"We are trying to avoid or minimize potential cuts, and the preparedness package planned for July will propose precautionary demand reduction measures,\" Simson told reporters after the ministerial meeting.</p><p>The biggest challenge facing the EU is ensuring there are sufficient reserves to cope with peak demand for heating and electricity in winter. Adequate reserves can also act as a buffer, allowing gas to be transported across borders within the EU to ensure that all member states are well supplied. If the crisis escalates, countries can help each other.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e9e0d8823968f5f609d0e74bcc8a643\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>U.S. second-hand housing contracts unexpectedly rose month-on-month in May, temporarily ending a six-month downward trend</b></p><p>A measure of the number of second-hand housing contracts in the United States unexpectedly rose for the first time in seven months in May, but it was just a short respite for the property market in an environment where mortgage interest rates continued to rise.</p><p>According to data released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) on Monday, the number of second-hand housing contracts increased by 0.7% month-on-month to 99.9% in October. The median economists surveyed expected a 4% decline.</p><p>Unadjusted second-hand housing contracts fell 12% year-over-year.</p><p>NAR pointed out that based on the median price of single-family homes calculated at a 10% down payment ratio, monthly mortgage loans have increased by about $800 since the beginning of the year.</p><p>Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR, said in the statement that \"although second-hand home sales increased slightly from the previous month, the housing market is clearly undergoing a transformation\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/241b6b28db1344e807a32223ed96eb0f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The European Central Bank, which is brewing its first rate hike in more than a decade, announced that it will postpone the announcement of its decision starting next month</b></p><p>If you're waiting for the ECB's first rate hike in more than a decade, you'll have to wait an extra 30 minutes.</p><p>According to the statement issued on Monday, the next decision and future announcements of the European Central Bank Governing Council will be postponed for half an hour, that is, until 2: 15pm Frankfurt time. President Christine Lagarde's press conference will also be postponed by 15 minutes-it will start at 2: 45pm.</p><p>Lagarde and her colleagues \"predicted\" that a possible rate hike of 25 basis points at the July 21st meeting would be the first rate hike since 2011.</p><p>A spokesman for the European Central Bank called this change a \"minor technical adjustment\" and did not comment on it.</p><p>Reasons may include: needing more time to prepare the announcement after the decision is made, or wanting to avoid the president's opening speech coinciding with the release of U.S. economic data (U.S. data is often released at 2:30 Frankfurt time on Thursdays). Or, it's possible that officials were just hoping for a longer lunch break.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d607c5341e8111e8ba68b791ffda10e\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Switzerland's Supreme Criminal Court makes historic ruling, Credit Suisse convicted of money laundering case</b></p><p>Cocaine, hiding cash, unlucky Bulgarian wrestlers … these details attracted the attention of the Swiss financial industry during the days of the court hearing in February. Credit Suisse has been charged for failing to stop money laundering by drug dealers.</p><p>On Monday afternoon, Switzerland's highest criminal court handed down its verdict, making Credit Suisse the first large bank in Swiss history to be convicted in a criminal case. The former Credit Suisse customer relationship manager involved in the case was found guilty of money laundering and sentenced to 20 months in prison with suspended execution.</p><p>Credit Suisse faces a fine of 2 million Swiss francs ($2.1 million) and is required to pay 19 million Swiss francs, equivalent to the amount of money laundered condoned by the bank.</p><p>The verdict is another heavy blow to Credit Suisse's reputation, which has previously argued that the crime dates back to a time when the bank's compliance standards were less stringent. Credit Suisse has been grappling with a series of scandals, and its share price has so far fallen near record lows. Its share price may face criminal charges for the second time this year in another case unrelated to this case.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-06-28/doc-imizirav0875537.shtml\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a3d2181796ca2050515544f80928f0d","relate_stocks":{"BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","GS":"高盛","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4504":"桥水持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-06-28/doc-imizirav0875537.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2246874171","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、高盛：美国利率市场低估了经济衰退风险2、白宫：七国集团将对俄罗斯实施进一步制裁3、欧盟考虑降低天然气需求 以应对俄罗斯供应中断风险4、美国5月份二手房签约量环比意外上升 暂时结束六个月下行势头5、酝酿十余年来首次加息的欧洲央行宣布自下个月起延后决议公布时间6、瑞士最高刑事法庭作出历史性裁决 瑞信洗钱案罪名成立高盛：美国利率市场低估了经济衰退风险高盛的利率策略师认为美国市场低估了2024年经济衰退的风险，该行加入了近期热门的押注美联储政策转鸽的行列。策略师Praveen Korapaty在6月24日的报告中表示，虽然过去几周市场对美联储政策利率的预期降至2023年初有限下行，但投资者对2024年联邦基金利率的定价仍然低估了衰退风险。通胀风险高企令衰退担忧对收益率曲线斜率的影响变得更为复杂。为了从市场这种错误定价中获利，高盛建议押注2023年3月和2024年3月欧洲美元合约曲线趋平，卖出2023年3月期货合约的看涨头寸，做多2024年3月期货合约。他们写道：“我们认为，这种结构应该在经济衰退开始情况下表现不错，风险来自立即衰退或是升息周期非常长”。白宫：七国集团将对俄罗斯实施进一步制裁当地时间6月27日，美国白宫发表声明称，美国总统拜登当日将与七国集团领导人和乌克兰总统泽连斯基会面，七国集团将发表对俄罗斯的新制裁措施。白宫声明称，美国将与七国集团协调实施的重大新制裁包括：对数百名个人和实体实施制裁，对数百种价值数十亿美元的俄罗斯产品征收关税，以及针对俄罗斯军事生产和供应链实施制裁。七国集团领导人将调整并扩大有针对性的制裁，以进一步限制俄罗斯获得关键服务和技术，限制俄罗斯参与全球市场，进一步打击其规避企图。此外，七国集团承诺为乌克兰提供预算支持和其他支持。欧盟考虑降低天然气需求 以应对俄罗斯供应中断风险俄罗斯供应减少对欧盟在应对俄乌冲突方面的团结性构成考验之际，欧盟正在寻找降低天然气需求的方法，以避免能源市场各自为政。欧盟对俄罗斯实施制裁后，天然气供应中断的增加促使各成员国加强了为冬季做准备的工作，寻求补充已被耗尽的库存。在周一于卢森堡举行的部长级会议上，欧盟能源专员Kadri Simson敦促实施更多节能措施和提高效率来降低实施天然气配给制的可能性。德国经济部长Robert Habeck警告称该国可能出现天然气短缺，并呼吁欧洲团结一致。“我们正在努力避免或尽量减少潜在的削减，计划于7月推出的准备方案将提出预防性减少需求的措施，”Simson在部长级会议后告诉记者。欧盟面临的最大挑战是确保有足够的储备来应对冬季取暖和电力需求高峰。充足的储备还可以起到缓冲作用，让天然气能够在欧盟内部跨国输送，以确保所有成员国都供应充足。如果危机升级，各国可以互相帮助。美国5月份二手房签约量环比意外上升 暂时结束六个月下行势头一项衡量美国二手房签约量的指标5月份意外出现七个月来的首次上升，但是对于房贷利率持续升高环境下的楼市而言，这不过是一次短暂的喘息而已。据美国全国房地产经纪人协会（NAR）周一公布的数据，10月份二手房签约量环比增长0.7%至99.9。接受调查的经济学家中值预期为下降4%。未经调整的二手房签约量同比下降12%。NAR指出，基于按10%首付比例计算的单户型住宅价格中值 ，自今年年初以来，每月按揭贷款增加了约800美元。NAR的首席经济学家Lawrence Yun在声明中表示，“尽管二手房销量较上月小幅增长，但房地产市场显然正在经历转型”。酝酿十余年来首次加息的欧洲央行宣布自下个月起延后决议公布时间如果你在等待欧洲央行十多年来的首次加息，那你得多等30分钟了。根据周一发布的声明，欧洲央行管理委员会的下一次决定和未来的公告将推迟半个小时发布，即延后到法兰克福时间下午2：15发布。行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德的新闻发布会也将推迟15分钟--将从下午2：45开始。拉加德和她的同事们“预告”称，可能在7月21日的会议上加息25个基点，将是2011年以来的首次加息。欧洲央行的一位发言人称这个变化是“微小的技术调整”，未就此发表评论。原因可能包括：在做出决定后需要更多时间来准备公告，或是希望避免行长开场讲话与美国经济数据发布相重合（美国数据经常在周四法兰克福时间2：30公布）。或者，也有可能是官员们只是希望能有更长的午休时间。瑞士最高刑事法庭作出历史性裁决 瑞信洗钱案罪名成立可卡因，藏匿现金，运气不佳的保加利亚摔角手……在2月庭审的几天里，这些细节吸引了瑞士金融业的关注。瑞信集团因未能阻止毒贩的洗钱行为而受到指控。周一下午，瑞士最高刑事法庭做出判决，瑞信成为瑞士历史上第一家在刑事案件中被判定有罪的大型银行。涉案的前瑞信客户关系经理被裁定洗钱罪名成立，入狱20个月，缓期执行。瑞信面临200万瑞郎（210万美元）的罚款，并被要求赔偿1900万瑞郎，相当于该行纵容的洗钱金额。这一判决是对瑞信声誉的又一沉重打击，该行此前辩称犯罪的发生时间要追溯到该行合规标准不那么严格的时代。瑞信一直在努力应对一系列丑闻，其股价迄今跌至纪录低点附近，可能今年会因为另一起与本案无关的案件第二次面临刑事指控。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"GS":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":758,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9046947533,"gmtCreate":1656293028522,"gmtModify":1676535800161,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9046947533","repostId":"1165038670","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165038670","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1656285455,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1165038670?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-27 07:17","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"This week's preview | Powell joins hands with heavy U.S. inflation data PCE is coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165038670","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"本周（6.27-7.1）重磅财经事件：经济数据方面：美国5月批发库存月率初值、美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率终值、中国官方制造业PMI、美国5月核心PCE物价指数、美国初请失业金人数、中国6月财新制造","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Major financial events this week (6.27-7.1):</b></p><p><b>Economic data:</b>The initial monthly rate of wholesale inventory in the United States in May, the final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the United States in the first quarter, China's official manufacturing PMI, the core PCE price index in the United States in May, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States, and China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in June will be announced one after another.<b>Financial report:</b>Ctrip, Nike, Micron Technology, etc. will release earnings reports.<b>In terms of events:</b>Friday is the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day, and trading in Hong Kong Stock Connect/A Stock Connect will be suspended; The NATO summit opens on Tuesday and lasts for two days; Tencent held the SPARK 2022 Tencent Game Conference on Monday. Furthermore,<b>This week, continue to pay attention to the speeches of Fed Chairman Powell, St. Louis Fed President Bullard, San Francisco Fed President Daly and many other Fed officials.</b>Get a glimpse of the Fed's attitude towards the current economic situation and monetary policy path.<b>Keywords for Monday, June 27: China's annual profit rate of industrial enterprises above designated size in May, U.S. preliminary monthly rate of durable goods orders in May, U.S. EIA crude oil inventory changes for the week</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b1765349fac5dcc348a9902910c4cfd\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a8bab3b5a4c455ea1531c5ce282017\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Monday,<b>As for economic data,</b>China will announce the annual profit rate of industrial enterprises above designated size in China in May; The initial monthly rate of U.S. durable goods orders in May and the changes in U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending June 17 were released.</p><p>U.S. durable goods orders rose less than expected in April. Institutional analysis believes that companies are sticking to capital expenditure plans as they seek to increase productivity to reduce the burden of high inflation and tight labor markets. However, it is unclear whether companies will reconsider the current pace of investment later this year amid rising interest rates and expectations of cooling economic activity. On June 27, the initial monthly rate of U.S. durable goods orders in May will be announced.<b>The current market expectation is 0.4%, which is lower than the previous value of 0.5%.</b>In addition, the U.S. Energy Information Administration updated the delayed data.</p><p><b>In terms of events, investors can pay attention to the SPARK 2022 Tencent Game Conference held by Tencent.</b></p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00973\">L 'OCCITANE</a>The financial report will be released on the same day,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">Ctrip.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>Will release earnings after hours.</p><p><b>In terms of new shares,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02391\">Tuya Smart-W</a>The subscription of new shares is over.</p><p><b>Important meetings,</b>Under many crises, the G-7 summit was held from June 26th to 28th at the Elmau Palace near Munich, the capital of Bavaria, Germany. The topics of this summit involve topics such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, climate change, energy crisis, food security, and economic recovery. Observers pointed out that as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, the Group of Seven will face the most severe challenges and crises in many years at this meeting.</p><p><b>Keywords for Tuesday, June 28: U.S. May wholesale inventory monthly preliminary value, U.S. April S&P/CS 20 major city housing price index, NATO summit opening</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7557ec0a9888dab809b78bb843517aa4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Tuesday,<b>As for economic data,</b>The United States will announce the initial monthly rate of wholesale inventory in the United States in May, the housing price index of S&P/CS20 major cities in the United States in April, etc.</p><p>U.S. wholesale inventory data reflects changes in the total value of items in wholesalers' inventories, which are resources that are temporarily idle to meet future needs; As an intermediary between manufacturers/importers and retailers, wholesalers' inventory can be regarded as one of the leading indicators of the economy. The rapid growth of wholesale inventory shows that wholesalers are optimistic about the economic prospects.<b>On June 28, the initial monthly rate of wholesale inventories in the United States in May will be announced, and it is not expected to rise sharply as the epidemic drags down the economy.</b><b>In terms of events,</b>The NATO summit opens for two days. It is expected that the discussion will focus on the Ukraine issue, and investors also need to pay attention to it. The NATO summit will be held in Madrid, Spain from June 29th to 30th. NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg once called it a \"historic\" opportunity to strengthen NATO in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. According to foreign media reports, the NATO summit is expected to discuss sending more troops to areas in the eastern part of the EU bordering Russia and its ally Belarus. In addition, the summit is also expected to discuss Turkey's opposition to Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00558\">Lijin Technology</a>Release earnings report.</p><p><b>In terms of new shares,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09955\">Zhiyun Health</a>The subscription of new shares is over.</p><p><b>Keywords on Wednesday, June 29: U.S. API crude oil inventory changes for the week ending June 24, U.S. real GDP annualized quarterly rate final value in the first quarter, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell/San Francisco Fed President Daly/Cleveland Fed President Mester delivered a speech</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d009e1fef305f66099330a861e47aa83\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"835\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bfa486b4dba1768a04e004e49a1c89f\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On Wednesday,<b>As for economic data,</b>The United States will announce the final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the first quarter of the United States.</p><p>The three-year compound growth rate of real GDP in the United States in the first quarter of 2022 fell from 1.9% to 1.56%. Among them, imports greatly dragged down economic growth in the first quarter, with a three-year compound growth rate of 3.96%; However, the growth rate of personal consumption continued to rise, recording 2.38%, which was higher than the level of the whole year of 2021; The growth rates of other sub-items all fell slightly, the compound growth rate of exports continued to be negative, and the compound growth rate of private investment declined the most.<b>On June 29, the final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the first quarter of the United States will be announced, which is expected to remain relatively low.</b>Furthermore,<b>Changes in API crude oil inventories in the United States for the week ending June 24 are also worthy of investors' attention.</b></p><p>API crude oil inventories in the United States unexpectedly increased by 5.607 million barrels in the week to June 17, the third consecutive week of increase and the largest increase since the week of April 8, 2022. It is expected to decrease by 1.433 million barrels, and the previous value was an increase of 736 million barrels. Ten thousand barrels. Gasoline inventories also increased for the first time since March.<b>The latest cycle data will be released on June 29, and it is expected to continue to record increases.</b><b>In terms of events,</b>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey and Bank for International Settlements President Carstens spoke at the ECB Forum.</p><p>2022 FOMC voting committee and Cleveland Fed President Mester participated in a panel discussion on inflation expectations;</p><p>2024 FOMC voting committee member and San Francisco Fed President Daly delivered a speech.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06110\">Topsters</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B Home</a>Will report earnings.</p><p><b>In terms of new shares,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02372\">WELLICH</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02167\">Tianrunyun</a>The winning results will be announced.</p><p><b>Keywords for Thursday, June 30: China's official manufacturing PMI, U.S. core PCE price index in May, U.S. initial jobless claims, St. Louis Fed President Bullard's speech, A-share trading suspension</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c23264ecc85938e74492769ba14d465f\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1bf4e1d47d9e2493aedb333c5a9a184\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Thursday,<b>As for economic data,</b>China will release its official manufacturing PMI for June.</p><p>China's official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data will be released on the last day of June.<b>It is expected that as the country gradually recovers from the epidemic, this data is expected to pick up further.</b>The United States will release data such as the annual rate of the core PCE price index in May and the number of initial jobless claims for the week. Wherein,<b>The core PCE price index in the United States in May is the top priority.</b></p><p><b>In terms of events,</b>Investors need to focus on the speech of the 2022 FOMC voting committee and St. Louis Fed President Bullard.</p><p><b>In addition, due to the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, northbound trading is closed.</b></p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>Will release earnings after hours.</b></p><p><b>Keywords for Friday, July 1: Hong Kong stocks closed, Hong Kong Stock Connect/A-share Connect trading suspension, China's June Caixin manufacturing PMI, U.S. June Markit manufacturing PMI final value, U.S. June ISM manufacturing PMI</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1bf4e1d47d9e2493aedb333c5a9a184\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Friday was<b>On the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day, and trading in Hong Kong Stock Connect/A Stock Connect will be suspended.</b></p><p>As for economic data,<b>Investors need to pay attention to China's June Caixin manufacturing PMI, the final value of the U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI in June, and the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI in June.</b></p><p>In addition to the above key data and major events, investors also need to pay attention to the development of the global epidemic, which is expected to affect future financial market trends.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This week's preview | Powell joins hands with heavy U.S. inflation data PCE is coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis week's preview | Powell joins hands with heavy U.S. inflation data PCE is coming\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-27 07:17</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Major financial events this week (6.27-7.1):</b></p><p><b>Economic data:</b>The initial monthly rate of wholesale inventory in the United States in May, the final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the United States in the first quarter, China's official manufacturing PMI, the core PCE price index in the United States in May, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States, and China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in June will be announced one after another.<b>Financial report:</b>Ctrip, Nike, Micron Technology, etc. will release earnings reports.<b>In terms of events:</b>Friday is the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day, and trading in Hong Kong Stock Connect/A Stock Connect will be suspended; The NATO summit opens on Tuesday and lasts for two days; Tencent held the SPARK 2022 Tencent Game Conference on Monday. Furthermore,<b>This week, continue to pay attention to the speeches of Fed Chairman Powell, St. Louis Fed President Bullard, San Francisco Fed President Daly and many other Fed officials.</b>Get a glimpse of the Fed's attitude towards the current economic situation and monetary policy path.<b>Keywords for Monday, June 27: China's annual profit rate of industrial enterprises above designated size in May, U.S. preliminary monthly rate of durable goods orders in May, U.S. EIA crude oil inventory changes for the week</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b1765349fac5dcc348a9902910c4cfd\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a8bab3b5a4c455ea1531c5ce282017\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Monday,<b>As for economic data,</b>China will announce the annual profit rate of industrial enterprises above designated size in China in May; The initial monthly rate of U.S. durable goods orders in May and the changes in U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending June 17 were released.</p><p>U.S. durable goods orders rose less than expected in April. Institutional analysis believes that companies are sticking to capital expenditure plans as they seek to increase productivity to reduce the burden of high inflation and tight labor markets. However, it is unclear whether companies will reconsider the current pace of investment later this year amid rising interest rates and expectations of cooling economic activity. On June 27, the initial monthly rate of U.S. durable goods orders in May will be announced.<b>The current market expectation is 0.4%, which is lower than the previous value of 0.5%.</b>In addition, the U.S. Energy Information Administration updated the delayed data.</p><p><b>In terms of events, investors can pay attention to the SPARK 2022 Tencent Game Conference held by Tencent.</b></p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00973\">L 'OCCITANE</a>The financial report will be released on the same day,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">Ctrip.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>Will release earnings after hours.</p><p><b>In terms of new shares,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02391\">Tuya Smart-W</a>The subscription of new shares is over.</p><p><b>Important meetings,</b>Under many crises, the G-7 summit was held from June 26th to 28th at the Elmau Palace near Munich, the capital of Bavaria, Germany. The topics of this summit involve topics such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, climate change, energy crisis, food security, and economic recovery. Observers pointed out that as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, the Group of Seven will face the most severe challenges and crises in many years at this meeting.</p><p><b>Keywords for Tuesday, June 28: U.S. May wholesale inventory monthly preliminary value, U.S. April S&P/CS 20 major city housing price index, NATO summit opening</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7557ec0a9888dab809b78bb843517aa4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Tuesday,<b>As for economic data,</b>The United States will announce the initial monthly rate of wholesale inventory in the United States in May, the housing price index of S&P/CS20 major cities in the United States in April, etc.</p><p>U.S. wholesale inventory data reflects changes in the total value of items in wholesalers' inventories, which are resources that are temporarily idle to meet future needs; As an intermediary between manufacturers/importers and retailers, wholesalers' inventory can be regarded as one of the leading indicators of the economy. The rapid growth of wholesale inventory shows that wholesalers are optimistic about the economic prospects.<b>On June 28, the initial monthly rate of wholesale inventories in the United States in May will be announced, and it is not expected to rise sharply as the epidemic drags down the economy.</b><b>In terms of events,</b>The NATO summit opens for two days. It is expected that the discussion will focus on the Ukraine issue, and investors also need to pay attention to it. The NATO summit will be held in Madrid, Spain from June 29th to 30th. NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg once called it a \"historic\" opportunity to strengthen NATO in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. According to foreign media reports, the NATO summit is expected to discuss sending more troops to areas in the eastern part of the EU bordering Russia and its ally Belarus. In addition, the summit is also expected to discuss Turkey's opposition to Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00558\">Lijin Technology</a>Release earnings report.</p><p><b>In terms of new shares,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09955\">Zhiyun Health</a>The subscription of new shares is over.</p><p><b>Keywords on Wednesday, June 29: U.S. API crude oil inventory changes for the week ending June 24, U.S. real GDP annualized quarterly rate final value in the first quarter, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell/San Francisco Fed President Daly/Cleveland Fed President Mester delivered a speech</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d009e1fef305f66099330a861e47aa83\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"835\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bfa486b4dba1768a04e004e49a1c89f\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On Wednesday,<b>As for economic data,</b>The United States will announce the final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the first quarter of the United States.</p><p>The three-year compound growth rate of real GDP in the United States in the first quarter of 2022 fell from 1.9% to 1.56%. Among them, imports greatly dragged down economic growth in the first quarter, with a three-year compound growth rate of 3.96%; However, the growth rate of personal consumption continued to rise, recording 2.38%, which was higher than the level of the whole year of 2021; The growth rates of other sub-items all fell slightly, the compound growth rate of exports continued to be negative, and the compound growth rate of private investment declined the most.<b>On June 29, the final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the first quarter of the United States will be announced, which is expected to remain relatively low.</b>Furthermore,<b>Changes in API crude oil inventories in the United States for the week ending June 24 are also worthy of investors' attention.</b></p><p>API crude oil inventories in the United States unexpectedly increased by 5.607 million barrels in the week to June 17, the third consecutive week of increase and the largest increase since the week of April 8, 2022. It is expected to decrease by 1.433 million barrels, and the previous value was an increase of 736 million barrels. Ten thousand barrels. Gasoline inventories also increased for the first time since March.<b>The latest cycle data will be released on June 29, and it is expected to continue to record increases.</b><b>In terms of events,</b>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey and Bank for International Settlements President Carstens spoke at the ECB Forum.</p><p>2022 FOMC voting committee and Cleveland Fed President Mester participated in a panel discussion on inflation expectations;</p><p>2024 FOMC voting committee member and San Francisco Fed President Daly delivered a speech.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06110\">Topsters</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B Home</a>Will report earnings.</p><p><b>In terms of new shares,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02372\">WELLICH</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02167\">Tianrunyun</a>The winning results will be announced.</p><p><b>Keywords for Thursday, June 30: China's official manufacturing PMI, U.S. core PCE price index in May, U.S. initial jobless claims, St. Louis Fed President Bullard's speech, A-share trading suspension</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c23264ecc85938e74492769ba14d465f\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1bf4e1d47d9e2493aedb333c5a9a184\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Thursday,<b>As for economic data,</b>China will release its official manufacturing PMI for June.</p><p>China's official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data will be released on the last day of June.<b>It is expected that as the country gradually recovers from the epidemic, this data is expected to pick up further.</b>The United States will release data such as the annual rate of the core PCE price index in May and the number of initial jobless claims for the week. Wherein,<b>The core PCE price index in the United States in May is the top priority.</b></p><p><b>In terms of events,</b>Investors need to focus on the speech of the 2022 FOMC voting committee and St. Louis Fed President Bullard.</p><p><b>In addition, due to the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, northbound trading is closed.</b></p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>Will release earnings after hours.</b></p><p><b>Keywords for Friday, July 1: Hong Kong stocks closed, Hong Kong Stock Connect/A-share Connect trading suspension, China's June Caixin manufacturing PMI, U.S. June Markit manufacturing PMI final value, U.S. June ISM manufacturing PMI</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1bf4e1d47d9e2493aedb333c5a9a184\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Friday was<b>On the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day, and trading in Hong Kong Stock Connect/A Stock Connect will be suspended.</b></p><p>As for economic data,<b>Investors need to pay attention to China's June Caixin manufacturing PMI, the final value of the U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI in June, and the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI in June.</b></p><p>In addition to the above key data and major events, investors also need to pay attention to the development of the global epidemic, which is expected to affect future financial market trends.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d256e82db1d71c864259845ce1d069bf","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165038670","content_text":"本周（6.27-7.1）重磅财经事件：经济数据方面：美国5月批发库存月率初值、美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率终值、中国官方制造业PMI、美国5月核心PCE物价指数、美国初请失业金人数、中国6月财新制造业PMI将陆续公布。财报方面：携程网、耐克、美光科技等将发布财报。事件方面：周五为香港特别行政区成立纪念日，港股休市一日、港股通/A股通暂停交易；周二北约峰会开幕，为期两日；腾讯公司周一举行将SPARK 2022腾讯游戏发布会。此外，本周继续关注美联储主席鲍威尔、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德、旧金山联储主席戴利等多位美联储官员讲话，从中窥探美联储对当前经济形势和货币政策路径的态度。6月27日 周一关键词：中国5月规模以上工业企业利润年率、美国5月耐用品订单月率初值、 美国当周EIA原油库存变动周一，经济数据方面，中国将公布中国5月规模以上工业企业利润年率；美国5月耐用品订单月率初值、美国截至6月17日当周EIA原油库存变动出炉。美国耐用品订单4月增幅低于预期。机构分析后认为，企业正在坚持资本支出计划，因其寻求提高生产率，以减轻高通胀和劳动力市场紧张的负担。不过，在利率上升和经济活动预期降温的情况下，企业今年晚些时候是否会重新考虑当下的投资步伐，目前还不太清楚。6月27日将公布美国5月耐用品订单月率初值，目前市场预期为0.4%，低于0.5%的前值。此外，美国能源信息署更新推迟公布的数据。事件方面，投资者可关注腾讯公司举行的SPARK 2022腾讯游戏发布会。财报方面，欧舒丹将于当日发布财报，携程网、耐克将于盘后发布财报。新股方面，涂鸦智能-W新股申购结束。重要会议方面，重重危机之下，七国集团峰会即于6月26日至28日在德国巴伐利亚州首府慕尼黑附近的埃尔茂宫召开。本次峰会的议题涉及俄乌冲突、气候变化、能源危机、粮食安全、经济复苏等话题。观察人士指出，在俄乌冲突持续升级的背景下，七国集团在此次会议中将面临多年来最严峻的挑战和危机。6月28日 周二关键词：美国5月批发库存月率初值、美国4月S&P/CS20座大城市房价指数、北约峰会开幕周二，经济数据方面，美国将公布美国5月批发库存月率初值、美国4月S&P/CS20座大城市房价指数等。美国批发库存数据反映的是批发商库存中物品总价值的变动，是为了满足未来需要而暂时闲置的资源；批发商作为制造商/进口商及零售商之间的中间人，其库存情况可以作为经济先行指标之一，批发库存增长快说明批发商对经济前景看好。6月28日将公布美国5月批发库存月率初值，在疫情拖累经济的情况下料不会大涨。事件方面，北约峰会开幕，为期两日，预计讨论将集中在乌克兰问题上，投资者也需引起重视。北约峰会将在6月29日至30日于西班牙马德里举行。北约秘书长斯托尔滕贝格曾将其称之为在俄乌冲突背景下，加强北约的“历史性”机会。据外媒报道，此次北约峰会预计将讨论向欧盟东部与俄罗斯及其盟友白俄罗斯接壤的地区增兵。此外，峰会也有望就土耳其在瑞典和芬兰加入北约上的反对立场问题加以协商。财报方面，力劲科技发布财报。新股方面，智云健康新股申购结束。6月29日 周三关键字：美国截至6月24日当周API原油库存变动、美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率终值、美联储主席鲍威尔/旧金山联储主席戴利/克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特发表讲话周三，经济数据方面，美国将公布美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率终值。美国2022年一季度实际GDP三年复合增速从1.9%下滑至1.56%。其中，进口大幅拖累一季度经济增长，三年复合增速高达3.96%；但个人消费增速仍持续上行，录得2.38%，高于2021年全年水平；其余分项增速均小幅回落，出口复合增速持续处于负增长，私人投资复合增速下行幅度最大。6月29日将公布美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率终值，料维持相对低位。此外，美国截至6月24日当周API原油库存变动也值得投资者关注。美国至6月17日当周API原油库存意外大增560.7万桶，为连续第三周上升并且为2022年4月8日当周以来最大增幅，预期为减少143.3万桶，前值为增加73.6万桶。汽油库存也自3月以来首次增加。6月29日将公布最新周期的数据，料继续录得增加。事件方面，美联储主席鲍威尔、欧洲央行行长拉加德、英国央行行长贝利以及国际清算银行总裁卡斯腾斯在欧洲央行论坛上发表讲话。2022年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特参加一个有关通胀预期的小组讨论；2024年FOMC票委、旧金山联储主席戴利发表讲话。财报方面，滔搏、3B家居将公布财报。新股方面，伟立控股、天润云将公布中签结果。6月30日 周四关键词：中国官方制造业PMI、美国5月核心PCE物价指数、美国初请失业金人数、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德讲话、A股通暂停交易周四，经济数据方面，中国将发布6月官方制造业PMI。6月的最后一天将公布中国官方制造业和非制造业PMI数据，预计随着国内逐渐从疫情中恢复过来，本次数据有望进一步回升。美国将发布5月核心PCE物价指数年率、当周初请失业金人数等数据。其中，美国5月核心PCE物价指数是重中之重。事件方面，投资者需重点关注2022年FOMC票委、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德的讲话。此外，因香港特别行政区成立纪念日，北向交易关闭。财报方面，美光科技将于盘后发布财报。7月1日 周五关键词：港股休市、港股通/A股通暂停交易、中国6月财新制造业PMI、美国6月Markit制造业PMI终值、美国6月ISM制造业PMI周五为香港特别行政区成立纪念日，港股休市一日，港股通/A股通暂停交易。经济数据方面，投资者需关注中国6月财新制造业PMI、美国6月Markit制造业PMI终值、美国6月ISM制造业PMI。除了以上重点数据和大事件，投资者还需关注全球疫情发展，料影响未来金融市场走势。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":1,".IXIC":1,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9048430431,"gmtCreate":1656237434923,"gmtModify":1676535790701,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9048430431","repostId":"1122634027","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122634027","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"市场策略研究、热点问题观察、分享最新观点：美国与海外市场、H股、及中概股市场","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Kevin策略研究","id":"1090746012","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90"},"pubTimestamp":1656231072,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122634027?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-26 16:11","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Opinion | The historical relationship between recession risk and the bear market in US stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122634027","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"6月FOMC加息75bp后，衰退担忧明显升温。在当前快加息背景下美国经济后续陷入衰退也不算意外。那么，衰退风险对美股有何启示？有何经验值得借鉴？一、衰退风险多大？增长放缓是既定事实，衰退也有相当可能，","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>After the FOMC rate hike reached 75bp in June, recession concerns increased significantly. Under the current background of fast rate hike, it is not surprising that the U.S. economy will subsequently fall into recession. So, what does the recession risk mean for U.S. stocks? What experience is worth learning from?</p><p><b>1. What is the risk of recession? Slowing growth is a given fact, and a recession is quite possible, but the timing and depth of a recession are more important</b></p><p>U.S. growth and profits are already on a slowdown path, and a subsequent recession is also quite likely. Suddenly, rate hike itself will have a greater impact on demand.<b>Given the possibility of a slowdown or even a recession, the timing and depth of the recession are even more important</b>。<b>1) For recession time</b>, we estimate that the pressure on growth from tightening financial conditions may appear at the end of this year and early next year, not so soon.<b>2) For recession depth</b>The current relatively healthy balance sheet of the U.S. non-government sector indicates that at least it does not face a greater risk of debt crisis.</p><p><b>Second, the current \"correct\" question? If the probability of a deep recession is low, when the policy will retreat is a more meaningful question for the market</b></p><p>If the probability of a deep recession is small and will not come soon, the more meaningful question for the market is not whether there will be a recession, but when the policy will retreat.<b>Judging from the inflation and tightening path we calculate, it may correspond to the beginning of the fourth quarter after the third quarter</b>。 At this point, the market can enter the trading logic of bonds and growth. There are similarities between early 2019 and 1994.</p><p><b>3. Market impact under different degrees of recession: the average decline of mild recession is ~ 20%, and the valuation is supported by one standard deviation below</b></p><p>The United States has experienced 15 recessions since the 1920s. We divide the degree of recession by the decline of GDP. Compared with a deep recession (with a correction of more than 3%) and a mild recession, the former is usually accompanied by a balance sheet shock (such as 2008), so it lasts longer (13 months on average); The market decline was significantly larger and more sudden; Real estate finance is more sensitive to the degree of recession, and the growth of technology is smaller; The former valuation drag is greater and there is no support level, and the mild recession valuation can find support at one standard deviation below the mean.</p><p>This round of market decline from its high point has been equivalent to a mild recession (S&P 500 pullback/retracement 24%, Nasdaq 34%); The current dynamic valuation of 16.3 times is still 15 ~ 20% away from the support level of 13 times. We estimate that the reasonable level based on the 3.5% 10-year U.S. bond is around 14 times.</p><p><b>4. Is there any debt risk? The weak link of the US balance sheet</b></p><p>Except for government departments, the macro leverage level of financial and non-financial enterprises and residents in the United States is at a relatively healthy level, far lower than that of the 2008 financial crisis. This is also one of the main bases for us to judge that the probability of a deep recession like a debt crisis is low at present. Some weak links, such as high-yield bonds and consumer loans for low-and middle-income people, deserve attention.</p><p><b>Focus Discussion: Recession Risks in the U.S. Economy vs. Bear Market Pressure in the U.S. Market</b></p><p>After the Fed's \"temporary\" rate hike of 75bp at the June FOMC meeting (\"June FOMC: Radical and Forward Path or the Current\" Optimal Solution \"),<b>The logic of market trading rapidly switched from high inflation and rapid contraction to weak growth, and recession fears increased significantly.</b>Affected by this, the 10-year US Treasury yields once dropped by around 3% from a high of 3.5%. At the same time, the higher gold-copper ratio last week, the sharp drop in oil prices, and the growth-style Nasdaq leading the gains may also be related to this expectation.</p><p><b>In the short term, we don't think the market's response to recession fears is excessive. However, it is also an indisputable fact that the current growth of the United States is gradually slowing down, and it is not surprising that it will subsequently fall into recession under the current background of rapid rate hike.</b>So, what does the recession risk mean for U.S. stocks and Fed policy? What experience in history is worth learning from? We will analyze it specifically in this article.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/334e4412ff2824eef6c9d55081154272\" tg-width=\"1003\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1. How big is the risk of recession? Slowing growth is a given fact, and a recession is quite possible, but the timing and depth of a recession are more important</b></p><p>Under the combined effect of high base, high cost, high inventory, high interest rate and weak demand,<b>U.S. growth and corporate earnings are already on a slowing path and will continue to fall</b>(\"U.S. Stock Earnings Enter a Downward Channel\"), which is also the general consensus of the current market.<b>If this path continues, a recession is also quite likely</b>。</p><p>Although Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated after the FOMC meeting and at last week's congressional hearing that it is not the Fed's subjective will to actively guide a recession (indicating that the possibility of an economic recession exists and a soft landing is very challenging),<b>However, the rapid tightening of financial conditions brought about by the fast rate hike will itself have a greater impact on demand</b>(The sudden rise in 30-year and 10-year mortgage interest rates has brought an immediate negative impact on the demand for real estate in the United States, and the number of mortgage applications and house sales have dropped rapidly). At the same time, the aftermath of the sudden monetary tightening is bound to gradually emerge (just like the image metaphor of former US Treasury Secretary Summers about the delayed change of faucet water temperature in a recent exclusive interview).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cffff211142d658726f70e8df3ba0ba\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"748\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Given the possibility of slowing growth or even a recession, the timing and depth of the recession are even more important</b>, because falling into recession too quickly will put the Fed's policy in a dilemma, and the market will also bear the dual pressure of valuation and profitability; A deep recession will have a more severe and lasting impact on earnings.</p><p><b>1) For the recession time, we try to estimate it by the tightness of financial conditions (the extent to which financing costs exceed the return on investment)</b>The advantage is that it is ahead of the economic indicators themselves and can \"observe\" the intentions of the Fed, because excessively high interest rates and excessively tight financial conditions will inevitably bring greater growth pressure, and at the same time, it also means that the Fed wants to curb demand to achieve the purpose of controlling inflation (looking back at history, when financial conditions turn positive, the Fed usually stops rate hike, except in the late 1970s).</p><p>We use the 3m10s interest rate spread and the two dimensions of actual corporate financing costs (investment-grade bond yields) and investment returns (real GDP growth) to calculate separately, based on the current Federal Reserve dot plot and the pace of rate hike implied by CME interest rate futures (rate hike from July to November were 75bp, 50bp and 25bp respectively),<b>Tighter financial conditions may put pressure on growth late this year and early next year</b>(Corresponding to the inversion of 3m10s in November and the financing cost exceeding the historical experience threshold of 250bp return on investment early next year) (\"How to Understand the Mechanism and Impact of Tightening Financial Conditions\"). In addition, although the Conference Board's economic leading indicators have continued to decline since the beginning of the year, the year-on-year growth rate has not yet turned negative. From the perspective of the relationship with the recession, it also indicates that there may still be some way to go.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3a5138665145a96277c213deb9296ef\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/034aec2af916f73b6ec4b6fb25aa0487\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c24f3cfc53848e33450b5a868abaf19e\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea2296dc54d0f47f2b822aafe68d3e6c\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) For recession depth</b>The current relatively healthy balance sheet status of the U.S. non-government sector indicates that at least it does not face a greater risk of debt crisis. In other words, even if there is a recession, there is a high probability that it will not be a deep recession similar to the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c25abd8081ea3a609855816e1c07e4\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Second, the current \"correct\" question? If the probability of a deep recession is low, when the policy will retreat is a more meaningful question for the market</b></p><p>If the probability of a deep recession is small and may not come soon,<b>Then the more meaningful question for markets is not whether there will be a recession, but when the policy will retreat</b>。 In the process of slowing growth, if the Fed's policy can decline or even turn after completing the \"task\" (such as inflation reaches an inflection point and Federal Funds rate effectively exceeds the neutral interest rate), then the market can enter the trading logic of slowing growth and loose policy. According to our \"improved version\" Merrill Lynch clock based on real interest rates and inflation expectations, inflation corresponds to bond assets and stock market growth styles relatively outperform.</p><p><b>Judging from our calculated inflation and tightening path, this point in time may correspond to after the third quarter</b>, mainly considering that U.S. inflation will once again usher in a high year-on-year base starting in September, and at the same time, the current rate hike path may gradually slow down after September.</p><p>In fact, the market stabilization in early 2019 showed this characteristic. The opportunity for the market to bottom out was that Powell sent a dovish signal in early 2019, but the real interest rate cut occurred half a year later in July 2019, and the growth improved until the third quarter. The rapid rate hike similar to the current Greenspan period in 1994 did not lead to a \"crash\" of the market, and to a certain extent, it also benefited from the timely \"closure\" of the policy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3683dd57c129b31cc443df6926beb01f\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2214bbade68b88971ad5f6d2eff5c1b\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. Market impact under different degrees of recession: the average decline of mild recession is ~ 20%, and the valuation is supported below one standard deviation</b></p><p><b>Different recessions have different degrees and times of impact on the economy, so naturally they have different impacts on the market.</b>Referring to the definition of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the United States has experienced 15 recessions since the late 1920s, with a median duration of ~ 10.1 months. The longest of which was the Great Depression (44 months) that began in 1929. The shortest was the 2020 epidemic (only 2 months).</p><p><b>We define the degree of recession by the decline of GDP from the peak. Empirical values show that a correction exceeding 3% is a deep recession, and a correction less than 3% is a mild recession.</b>Based on this definition, since the late 1920s, there have been a total of 7 deep recessions (1929-1933, 1937-1938, 1945, 1957-1958, 1973-1975, 2007-2009, 2020), with duration The median time is 13.2 months; There were 8 mild recessions (1948-1949, 1953-1954, 1960-1961, 1969-1970, 1980, 1981-1982, 1990-1991, 2001), with an average duration of 10 months. Generally speaking, a larger recession is usually accompanied by a crisis on the balance sheet, so a greater impact is slower and more difficult to repair (typically the 2008 financial crisis), while a small recession has a relatively limited impact on the balance sheet. Repair is also faster.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68c8b2234e6976a8efd806a5e8cc2cd9\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Based on the above division, we find that there are also \"distinct\" differences in market and sector performance.</b></p><p><b>1) Overall performance:</b>During a deep recession, the median maximum pullback/retracement of the S&P 500 is 44%, which is much larger than the 19% pullback/retracement during a mild recession.</p><p><b>2) Look at the time point</b>: The starting point of market decline is closer to the recession period during deep recession (the high point is 1.5 months ahead), while the decline begins earlier during mild recession (the market high point is 2.4 months ahead of the recession); But the end time is just the opposite. The market bottom is 6 months earlier than the end of a deep recession, and the market bottoms 5.1 months earlier than the mild recession.</p><p><b>3) Industry performance</b>: The decline during the recession of daily consumption and defensive sectors is generally small, which is in line with the characteristics of defensive sectors; However, the decline of real estate, financial services, media, utilities, insurance and other sectors is more sharp in deep recessions, which means that such sectors are more sensitive to the degree of recession, compared with the growth-style technology sector, which is less sensitive<b>。</b></p><p><b>4) Valuation and earnings:</b>Limited by valuation data, we have observed that during different recessions since the 1950s, the drag on earnings is roughly the same (the median deep recession is 2.4% vs. the median mild recession is 4.3%), and the difference in valuation drag is even more significant (median deep recession 35% vs. mild recession 18%).</p><p><b>5) Absolute valuation level:</b>The S&P 500 index has basically maintained one standard deviation below the mean in the past three decades, which can be supported (corresponding to a 12-month dynamic valuation of about 13 times, such as the 1994 rate hike cycle, the low point of the technology bubble in 2002, and the 2018 market turmoil and the 2020 epidemic); In contrast, a deep recession will \"break the position\". For example, during the deep recession in 2008, the valuation fell as low as 9 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9eaa6773a5a9ed1645bad6b879ffd1cd\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"832\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7082e70bbbd68294fca49d648b0e26dd\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In comparison, the current market decline from the high point is close to the average of mild recession (the largest pullback/retracement of the S&P 500 is 24%, and the largest pullback/retracement of the Nasdaq is 34%), while the current dynamic valuation of 16.3 times There is still 20.5% downside from the support level of mild recession. Based on the 10-year US Treasury yields of 3.5% and the current growth environment, we estimate that the reasonable level is about 14 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b36780fe4ba715c4a45795cd0e61dcb2\" tg-width=\"582\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. Is there any debt risk? The weak link of the US balance sheet</b></p><p>Overall, except for government departments, the macro leverage level of financial and non-financial enterprises and residential sectors in the United States is at a relatively healthy level, far lower than the 2008 financial crisis. Therefore,<b>This is also one of the main bases for us to judge that the probability of a deep recession like a debt crisis is low at present.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c25abd8081ea3a609855816e1c07e4\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Thanks to the continued deleveraging of U.S. residents after the subprime mortgage crisis, and three rounds of U.S. fiscal stimulus totaling US $6 trillion after the epidemic to protect the balance sheets of residents and businesses, the current U.S. resident leverage ratio is at a low level (75.1% vs. 74.2% in the fourth quarter of 2019), and the corporate leverage ratio is also close to the pre-epidemic level (77.7% vs. 75.1% in the fourth quarter of 2019). In the process of the Fed's accelerated tightening, the overall debt risk is controllable, but there are also some weak links that need attention. Specifically:</p><p><b>1) Residents: Healthy overall balance sheet; Middle-income people are more exposed.</b>Since 2022, U.S. household consumption has been quite resilient. Against the background that commodity consumption has begun to slow down, service consumption still maintains a relatively high growth rate. However, the current abundant excess savings (US $2.3 trillion) and resilient household consumption have deviated greatly from the consumer confidence that has continued to drop to a low point. For example, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was 50.2 in May, exceeding During the subprime mortgage crisis, it reached the level of the 1970s; The Conference Board's consumer confidence index was relatively higher at 106 in April, which may reflect the differentiation of people with different income levels.<b>A) High-income people have high asset growth and low leverage</b>。 As of the first quarter, the cash assets (savings and money funds) of the top 20% residents increased by 41.4% compared with the fourth quarter of 2019, while the liabilities/assets were the lowest among all people (3.8%).<b>b) High leverage among middle-income people</b>, the income quantile is between 20% and 80%, and the residents' liabilities/assets are close to 20%, but lower than the level of the subprime mortgage crisis.<b>c) The cash assets of low-income people have declined and their liabilities are not high</b>。 The main problem of people with income quantiles in the bottom 20% is that their assets are not high (cash assets fell by 1.2% month-on-month in the first quarter), and they are more susceptible to the squeeze of high inflation. However, what is relatively positive is that their liabilities are not high (15%), so they do not face a greater risk of default.</p><p>From the perspective of different types of liabilities on the resident side, the scale and proportion of student loans, auto loans and consumer credit have increased much more since the financial crisis than mortgage loans (as of the first quarter, mortgage loans/GDP was 50.2%, and consumer loans/GDP was 18.6%, but the improvement is faster), so it may be a weak link worthy of more attention.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d693ab3698ca973cf8f45563ae80d4e5\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"819\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d24c9810f3661b4b03b74bbad46e918b\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eb51d83baa2cd64d0a29e0c03da4105\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) Enterprise side: overall leverage improves and solvency improves; Focus on High Yield and Small Business Exposure</b>。 Although the U.S. corporate side has not experienced a substantial deleveraging process like the residential side, the leverage ratio of non-financial companies in the first quarter was 78%, and the net leverage ratio of S&P 500 non-financial companies was 74%, both higher than during the subprime mortgage crisis, but relative to the epidemic There is still improvement, and solvency has also been repaired (\"U.S. Stock Earnings Enter a Downward Channel\").</p><p>In \"Looking at the Weak Links under Tightening from the Turmoil of European and Japanese Bond Markets\", we pointed out that the credit spread in the United States has risen rapidly recently (high yield and investment grade are 5.3 ppt and 2.0 ppt respectively), the highest since 2015. Credit bonds, especially high-yield bonds, have significantly underperformed the Treasury Bond recently, accompanied by obvious capital outflows, so the potential risk exposure deserves attention. But what is relatively positive is that the maturity scale of U.S. high-yield bonds is only US $80 billion by the end of 2023, and the repayment pressure is not great.<b>In addition, small businesses in the United States are also worthy of attention due to high costs and tightening financial conditions.</b>We observe the short-term liquidity pressure and default risk of enterprises with current assets/short-term liabilities, and find that ~ 17% of listed companies in the United States are less than 1, with energy, raw materials, and consumer services accounting for the highest proportion; However, the market value accounts for only 0.6%, which indicates that the risk exposure is more dominated by small businesses and concentrated in sectors such as public utilities, finance and communications.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/789df80c100efce746b6f61d246b9607\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Market Dynamics: Powell emphasizes anti-inflation stance; Recession fears rise, as interest rates fall, bulk plummets, growth leads, and rate hike expectations fall</b></p><p><b>► Asset performance: Asset performance: stocks > bonds > bulk; Recession fears heat up, interest rates fall, bulk tumbles, growth leads the way</b></p><p><b>Market recession fears have heated up over the past week</b>, the performance is reflected in the 10-year US Treasury yields falling back to 3.1%, the bulk generally fell, and the growth style represented by FAAMNG and Nasdaq rebounded significantly. The decline in the initial value of Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States in June further reflected this situation. Market rate hike expectations fell, and the rate hike in September fell from 75bp to 50bp. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's hearing made it clear that a rate hike may lead to a recession, and it is challenging to achieve a soft landing, but the Fed will fight high inflation unconditionally. In order to reduce the pressure on oil prices, Biden expressed this week that he hopes to suspend the federal gasoline tax in the next three months. Brent crude oil prices once approached $107/barrel during the session, but supply and demand factors supported oil prices to close at $113/barrel this week.</p><p>Overall, under US dollar pricing, stocks > bonds > bulk; U.S. Chinese concept stocks, FAAMNG, Russian stock market, and Nasdaq led the gains; Wheat, natural gas, copper, soybeans and others led the decline. In terms of sectors, autos and parts, household goods, biotechnology, etc. in the S&P 500 led the gains, while only energy fell.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7793b1095eb898974815d115b18b5545\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Liquidity: FRA-OIS Narrows, Credit Spreads Higher</b></p><p>In the past week, the FRA-OIS spread narrowed to 20bp, the 90-day commercial bill spread in the financial industry widened, and the non-financial industry narrowed. Credit spreads all widened, and three-month cross-swaps between euro, yen, pound and dollar all narrowed. The willingness to lend funds in the US repo market has increased. In addition, the use of reverse repurchases by major U.S. financial institutions on the Federal Reserve's account dropped slightly but remained at a high level of US $2.2 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27b42fb05ab53b72567cc062011fc44b\" tg-width=\"997\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f03ee33446ac7eaac98e103647798bdf\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Emotional positions: Oversold in the US and Europe eased; U.S. stocks turn net short</b></p><p>In the past week, the VIX index has fallen as a whole, and the bearish/bullish ratio (10-day average) of US stocks has fallen. The oversold degree of European, American and emerging stock markets has eased. In terms of positions, speculative positions in U.S. stocks turned into net short positions, speculative net long positions in the U.S. dollar continued to increase, speculative net short positions in copper futures increased, net short positions in 10-year U.S. bonds increased, and net short positions in 2-year U.S. bonds decreased.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c809e3bf63c5c634305510bc15ca24f\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"733\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feb8364d0d2ce59fcb66c126a188f31b\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Fund flow: Bond outflows accelerate, U.S. stocks turn into outflows</b></p><p>In the past week, bond outflows have accelerated, stocks have turned to outflows, and money funds have turned to inflows. In terms of markets, the Japanese market has turned into inflows, Europe has accelerated outflows, and emerging markets and the United States have turned into outflows; South Korea and Vietnam recorded inflows, while India and China recorded significant outflows.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aa57fb5504f4f9ecf1c1143c8737a58\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7a5c011552507ab7f70bb132b98687a\" tg-width=\"982\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Fundamentals and policies: The initial PMI values of European and American manufacturing and service industries fell significantly</b></p><p><b>United States: The initial value of manufacturing PMI fell significantly in June, and demand weakened.</b>The Markit manufacturing PMI recorded 52.4 in June, lower than the previous value of 57 and the expected value of 56, a new low since July 2020. Against the background of high inflation and falling consumer confidence, weakening demand caused new PMI orders and output to fall sharply back to the contraction range in June, hitting a new low since June 2020. Supply deliveries improved slightly, and finished goods inventories rebounded, indicating a slight easing of supply pressure. The initial value of Markit services PMI in June was 51.6, lower than expectations (53.5) and the previous value (53.4), a five-month low.</p><p><b>Eurozone: The initial PMI value of manufacturing and service industries fell significantly in June.</b>The preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI value in June fell to 52, lower than expectations and previous values (53.8 and 54.6), the lowest level since August 2020. New orders, output and other sub-items have dropped significantly, and have fallen back to the contraction range. Under high inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, the economic growth and demand of the euro zone have weakened. Supply deliveries improved slightly, and finished goods inventories rebounded, indicating a slight easing of supply pressure. The preliminary value of the Services PMI fell to 52.8, which was lower than expectations and the previous values (54 and 54.8).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9147cb5405791940c42115acc3374dfd\" tg-width=\"1028\" tg-height=\"814\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Market valuation: still above reasonable levels for growth and liquidity</b></p><p><b>Still above reasonable levels of growth and liquidity.</b>The current dynamic P/E of the S&P 500 of 16.3 times is higher than the reasonable level that growth and liquidity can support (~ 15.1 times), and the valuation of U.S. stocks has fallen below the next standard deviation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab80789d31fe8c18bf2436ee0ecd8dfe\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"767\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d11bae2d8a5ee7beb59f5929e0ba85\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion | The historical relationship between recession risk and the bear market in US stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion | The historical relationship between recession risk and the bear market in US stocks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1090746012\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Kevin策略研究 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-26 16:11</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>After the FOMC rate hike reached 75bp in June, recession concerns increased significantly. Under the current background of fast rate hike, it is not surprising that the U.S. economy will subsequently fall into recession. So, what does the recession risk mean for U.S. stocks? What experience is worth learning from?</p><p><b>1. What is the risk of recession? Slowing growth is a given fact, and a recession is quite possible, but the timing and depth of a recession are more important</b></p><p>U.S. growth and profits are already on a slowdown path, and a subsequent recession is also quite likely. Suddenly, rate hike itself will have a greater impact on demand.<b>Given the possibility of a slowdown or even a recession, the timing and depth of the recession are even more important</b>。<b>1) For recession time</b>, we estimate that the pressure on growth from tightening financial conditions may appear at the end of this year and early next year, not so soon.<b>2) For recession depth</b>The current relatively healthy balance sheet of the U.S. non-government sector indicates that at least it does not face a greater risk of debt crisis.</p><p><b>Second, the current \"correct\" question? If the probability of a deep recession is low, when the policy will retreat is a more meaningful question for the market</b></p><p>If the probability of a deep recession is small and will not come soon, the more meaningful question for the market is not whether there will be a recession, but when the policy will retreat.<b>Judging from the inflation and tightening path we calculate, it may correspond to the beginning of the fourth quarter after the third quarter</b>。 At this point, the market can enter the trading logic of bonds and growth. There are similarities between early 2019 and 1994.</p><p><b>3. Market impact under different degrees of recession: the average decline of mild recession is ~ 20%, and the valuation is supported by one standard deviation below</b></p><p>The United States has experienced 15 recessions since the 1920s. We divide the degree of recession by the decline of GDP. Compared with a deep recession (with a correction of more than 3%) and a mild recession, the former is usually accompanied by a balance sheet shock (such as 2008), so it lasts longer (13 months on average); The market decline was significantly larger and more sudden; Real estate finance is more sensitive to the degree of recession, and the growth of technology is smaller; The former valuation drag is greater and there is no support level, and the mild recession valuation can find support at one standard deviation below the mean.</p><p>This round of market decline from its high point has been equivalent to a mild recession (S&P 500 pullback/retracement 24%, Nasdaq 34%); The current dynamic valuation of 16.3 times is still 15 ~ 20% away from the support level of 13 times. We estimate that the reasonable level based on the 3.5% 10-year U.S. bond is around 14 times.</p><p><b>4. Is there any debt risk? The weak link of the US balance sheet</b></p><p>Except for government departments, the macro leverage level of financial and non-financial enterprises and residents in the United States is at a relatively healthy level, far lower than that of the 2008 financial crisis. This is also one of the main bases for us to judge that the probability of a deep recession like a debt crisis is low at present. Some weak links, such as high-yield bonds and consumer loans for low-and middle-income people, deserve attention.</p><p><b>Focus Discussion: Recession Risks in the U.S. Economy vs. Bear Market Pressure in the U.S. Market</b></p><p>After the Fed's \"temporary\" rate hike of 75bp at the June FOMC meeting (\"June FOMC: Radical and Forward Path or the Current\" Optimal Solution \"),<b>The logic of market trading rapidly switched from high inflation and rapid contraction to weak growth, and recession fears increased significantly.</b>Affected by this, the 10-year US Treasury yields once dropped by around 3% from a high of 3.5%. At the same time, the higher gold-copper ratio last week, the sharp drop in oil prices, and the growth-style Nasdaq leading the gains may also be related to this expectation.</p><p><b>In the short term, we don't think the market's response to recession fears is excessive. However, it is also an indisputable fact that the current growth of the United States is gradually slowing down, and it is not surprising that it will subsequently fall into recession under the current background of rapid rate hike.</b>So, what does the recession risk mean for U.S. stocks and Fed policy? What experience in history is worth learning from? We will analyze it specifically in this article.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/334e4412ff2824eef6c9d55081154272\" tg-width=\"1003\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1. How big is the risk of recession? Slowing growth is a given fact, and a recession is quite possible, but the timing and depth of a recession are more important</b></p><p>Under the combined effect of high base, high cost, high inventory, high interest rate and weak demand,<b>U.S. growth and corporate earnings are already on a slowing path and will continue to fall</b>(\"U.S. Stock Earnings Enter a Downward Channel\"), which is also the general consensus of the current market.<b>If this path continues, a recession is also quite likely</b>。</p><p>Although Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated after the FOMC meeting and at last week's congressional hearing that it is not the Fed's subjective will to actively guide a recession (indicating that the possibility of an economic recession exists and a soft landing is very challenging),<b>However, the rapid tightening of financial conditions brought about by the fast rate hike will itself have a greater impact on demand</b>(The sudden rise in 30-year and 10-year mortgage interest rates has brought an immediate negative impact on the demand for real estate in the United States, and the number of mortgage applications and house sales have dropped rapidly). At the same time, the aftermath of the sudden monetary tightening is bound to gradually emerge (just like the image metaphor of former US Treasury Secretary Summers about the delayed change of faucet water temperature in a recent exclusive interview).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cffff211142d658726f70e8df3ba0ba\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"748\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Given the possibility of slowing growth or even a recession, the timing and depth of the recession are even more important</b>, because falling into recession too quickly will put the Fed's policy in a dilemma, and the market will also bear the dual pressure of valuation and profitability; A deep recession will have a more severe and lasting impact on earnings.</p><p><b>1) For the recession time, we try to estimate it by the tightness of financial conditions (the extent to which financing costs exceed the return on investment)</b>The advantage is that it is ahead of the economic indicators themselves and can \"observe\" the intentions of the Fed, because excessively high interest rates and excessively tight financial conditions will inevitably bring greater growth pressure, and at the same time, it also means that the Fed wants to curb demand to achieve the purpose of controlling inflation (looking back at history, when financial conditions turn positive, the Fed usually stops rate hike, except in the late 1970s).</p><p>We use the 3m10s interest rate spread and the two dimensions of actual corporate financing costs (investment-grade bond yields) and investment returns (real GDP growth) to calculate separately, based on the current Federal Reserve dot plot and the pace of rate hike implied by CME interest rate futures (rate hike from July to November were 75bp, 50bp and 25bp respectively),<b>Tighter financial conditions may put pressure on growth late this year and early next year</b>(Corresponding to the inversion of 3m10s in November and the financing cost exceeding the historical experience threshold of 250bp return on investment early next year) (\"How to Understand the Mechanism and Impact of Tightening Financial Conditions\"). In addition, although the Conference Board's economic leading indicators have continued to decline since the beginning of the year, the year-on-year growth rate has not yet turned negative. From the perspective of the relationship with the recession, it also indicates that there may still be some way to go.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3a5138665145a96277c213deb9296ef\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/034aec2af916f73b6ec4b6fb25aa0487\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c24f3cfc53848e33450b5a868abaf19e\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea2296dc54d0f47f2b822aafe68d3e6c\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) For recession depth</b>The current relatively healthy balance sheet status of the U.S. non-government sector indicates that at least it does not face a greater risk of debt crisis. In other words, even if there is a recession, there is a high probability that it will not be a deep recession similar to the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c25abd8081ea3a609855816e1c07e4\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Second, the current \"correct\" question? If the probability of a deep recession is low, when the policy will retreat is a more meaningful question for the market</b></p><p>If the probability of a deep recession is small and may not come soon,<b>Then the more meaningful question for markets is not whether there will be a recession, but when the policy will retreat</b>。 In the process of slowing growth, if the Fed's policy can decline or even turn after completing the \"task\" (such as inflation reaches an inflection point and Federal Funds rate effectively exceeds the neutral interest rate), then the market can enter the trading logic of slowing growth and loose policy. According to our \"improved version\" Merrill Lynch clock based on real interest rates and inflation expectations, inflation corresponds to bond assets and stock market growth styles relatively outperform.</p><p><b>Judging from our calculated inflation and tightening path, this point in time may correspond to after the third quarter</b>, mainly considering that U.S. inflation will once again usher in a high year-on-year base starting in September, and at the same time, the current rate hike path may gradually slow down after September.</p><p>In fact, the market stabilization in early 2019 showed this characteristic. The opportunity for the market to bottom out was that Powell sent a dovish signal in early 2019, but the real interest rate cut occurred half a year later in July 2019, and the growth improved until the third quarter. The rapid rate hike similar to the current Greenspan period in 1994 did not lead to a \"crash\" of the market, and to a certain extent, it also benefited from the timely \"closure\" of the policy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3683dd57c129b31cc443df6926beb01f\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2214bbade68b88971ad5f6d2eff5c1b\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. Market impact under different degrees of recession: the average decline of mild recession is ~ 20%, and the valuation is supported below one standard deviation</b></p><p><b>Different recessions have different degrees and times of impact on the economy, so naturally they have different impacts on the market.</b>Referring to the definition of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the United States has experienced 15 recessions since the late 1920s, with a median duration of ~ 10.1 months. The longest of which was the Great Depression (44 months) that began in 1929. The shortest was the 2020 epidemic (only 2 months).</p><p><b>We define the degree of recession by the decline of GDP from the peak. Empirical values show that a correction exceeding 3% is a deep recession, and a correction less than 3% is a mild recession.</b>Based on this definition, since the late 1920s, there have been a total of 7 deep recessions (1929-1933, 1937-1938, 1945, 1957-1958, 1973-1975, 2007-2009, 2020), with duration The median time is 13.2 months; There were 8 mild recessions (1948-1949, 1953-1954, 1960-1961, 1969-1970, 1980, 1981-1982, 1990-1991, 2001), with an average duration of 10 months. Generally speaking, a larger recession is usually accompanied by a crisis on the balance sheet, so a greater impact is slower and more difficult to repair (typically the 2008 financial crisis), while a small recession has a relatively limited impact on the balance sheet. Repair is also faster.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68c8b2234e6976a8efd806a5e8cc2cd9\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Based on the above division, we find that there are also \"distinct\" differences in market and sector performance.</b></p><p><b>1) Overall performance:</b>During a deep recession, the median maximum pullback/retracement of the S&P 500 is 44%, which is much larger than the 19% pullback/retracement during a mild recession.</p><p><b>2) Look at the time point</b>: The starting point of market decline is closer to the recession period during deep recession (the high point is 1.5 months ahead), while the decline begins earlier during mild recession (the market high point is 2.4 months ahead of the recession); But the end time is just the opposite. The market bottom is 6 months earlier than the end of a deep recession, and the market bottoms 5.1 months earlier than the mild recession.</p><p><b>3) Industry performance</b>: The decline during the recession of daily consumption and defensive sectors is generally small, which is in line with the characteristics of defensive sectors; However, the decline of real estate, financial services, media, utilities, insurance and other sectors is more sharp in deep recessions, which means that such sectors are more sensitive to the degree of recession, compared with the growth-style technology sector, which is less sensitive<b>。</b></p><p><b>4) Valuation and earnings:</b>Limited by valuation data, we have observed that during different recessions since the 1950s, the drag on earnings is roughly the same (the median deep recession is 2.4% vs. the median mild recession is 4.3%), and the difference in valuation drag is even more significant (median deep recession 35% vs. mild recession 18%).</p><p><b>5) Absolute valuation level:</b>The S&P 500 index has basically maintained one standard deviation below the mean in the past three decades, which can be supported (corresponding to a 12-month dynamic valuation of about 13 times, such as the 1994 rate hike cycle, the low point of the technology bubble in 2002, and the 2018 market turmoil and the 2020 epidemic); In contrast, a deep recession will \"break the position\". For example, during the deep recession in 2008, the valuation fell as low as 9 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9eaa6773a5a9ed1645bad6b879ffd1cd\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"832\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7082e70bbbd68294fca49d648b0e26dd\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In comparison, the current market decline from the high point is close to the average of mild recession (the largest pullback/retracement of the S&P 500 is 24%, and the largest pullback/retracement of the Nasdaq is 34%), while the current dynamic valuation of 16.3 times There is still 20.5% downside from the support level of mild recession. Based on the 10-year US Treasury yields of 3.5% and the current growth environment, we estimate that the reasonable level is about 14 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b36780fe4ba715c4a45795cd0e61dcb2\" tg-width=\"582\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. Is there any debt risk? The weak link of the US balance sheet</b></p><p>Overall, except for government departments, the macro leverage level of financial and non-financial enterprises and residential sectors in the United States is at a relatively healthy level, far lower than the 2008 financial crisis. Therefore,<b>This is also one of the main bases for us to judge that the probability of a deep recession like a debt crisis is low at present.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c25abd8081ea3a609855816e1c07e4\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Thanks to the continued deleveraging of U.S. residents after the subprime mortgage crisis, and three rounds of U.S. fiscal stimulus totaling US $6 trillion after the epidemic to protect the balance sheets of residents and businesses, the current U.S. resident leverage ratio is at a low level (75.1% vs. 74.2% in the fourth quarter of 2019), and the corporate leverage ratio is also close to the pre-epidemic level (77.7% vs. 75.1% in the fourth quarter of 2019). In the process of the Fed's accelerated tightening, the overall debt risk is controllable, but there are also some weak links that need attention. Specifically:</p><p><b>1) Residents: Healthy overall balance sheet; Middle-income people are more exposed.</b>Since 2022, U.S. household consumption has been quite resilient. Against the background that commodity consumption has begun to slow down, service consumption still maintains a relatively high growth rate. However, the current abundant excess savings (US $2.3 trillion) and resilient household consumption have deviated greatly from the consumer confidence that has continued to drop to a low point. For example, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was 50.2 in May, exceeding During the subprime mortgage crisis, it reached the level of the 1970s; The Conference Board's consumer confidence index was relatively higher at 106 in April, which may reflect the differentiation of people with different income levels.<b>A) High-income people have high asset growth and low leverage</b>。 As of the first quarter, the cash assets (savings and money funds) of the top 20% residents increased by 41.4% compared with the fourth quarter of 2019, while the liabilities/assets were the lowest among all people (3.8%).<b>b) High leverage among middle-income people</b>, the income quantile is between 20% and 80%, and the residents' liabilities/assets are close to 20%, but lower than the level of the subprime mortgage crisis.<b>c) The cash assets of low-income people have declined and their liabilities are not high</b>。 The main problem of people with income quantiles in the bottom 20% is that their assets are not high (cash assets fell by 1.2% month-on-month in the first quarter), and they are more susceptible to the squeeze of high inflation. However, what is relatively positive is that their liabilities are not high (15%), so they do not face a greater risk of default.</p><p>From the perspective of different types of liabilities on the resident side, the scale and proportion of student loans, auto loans and consumer credit have increased much more since the financial crisis than mortgage loans (as of the first quarter, mortgage loans/GDP was 50.2%, and consumer loans/GDP was 18.6%, but the improvement is faster), so it may be a weak link worthy of more attention.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d693ab3698ca973cf8f45563ae80d4e5\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"819\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d24c9810f3661b4b03b74bbad46e918b\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eb51d83baa2cd64d0a29e0c03da4105\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) Enterprise side: overall leverage improves and solvency improves; Focus on High Yield and Small Business Exposure</b>。 Although the U.S. corporate side has not experienced a substantial deleveraging process like the residential side, the leverage ratio of non-financial companies in the first quarter was 78%, and the net leverage ratio of S&P 500 non-financial companies was 74%, both higher than during the subprime mortgage crisis, but relative to the epidemic There is still improvement, and solvency has also been repaired (\"U.S. Stock Earnings Enter a Downward Channel\").</p><p>In \"Looking at the Weak Links under Tightening from the Turmoil of European and Japanese Bond Markets\", we pointed out that the credit spread in the United States has risen rapidly recently (high yield and investment grade are 5.3 ppt and 2.0 ppt respectively), the highest since 2015. Credit bonds, especially high-yield bonds, have significantly underperformed the Treasury Bond recently, accompanied by obvious capital outflows, so the potential risk exposure deserves attention. But what is relatively positive is that the maturity scale of U.S. high-yield bonds is only US $80 billion by the end of 2023, and the repayment pressure is not great.<b>In addition, small businesses in the United States are also worthy of attention due to high costs and tightening financial conditions.</b>We observe the short-term liquidity pressure and default risk of enterprises with current assets/short-term liabilities, and find that ~ 17% of listed companies in the United States are less than 1, with energy, raw materials, and consumer services accounting for the highest proportion; However, the market value accounts for only 0.6%, which indicates that the risk exposure is more dominated by small businesses and concentrated in sectors such as public utilities, finance and communications.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/789df80c100efce746b6f61d246b9607\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Market Dynamics: Powell emphasizes anti-inflation stance; Recession fears rise, as interest rates fall, bulk plummets, growth leads, and rate hike expectations fall</b></p><p><b>► Asset performance: Asset performance: stocks > bonds > bulk; Recession fears heat up, interest rates fall, bulk tumbles, growth leads the way</b></p><p><b>Market recession fears have heated up over the past week</b>, the performance is reflected in the 10-year US Treasury yields falling back to 3.1%, the bulk generally fell, and the growth style represented by FAAMNG and Nasdaq rebounded significantly. The decline in the initial value of Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States in June further reflected this situation. Market rate hike expectations fell, and the rate hike in September fell from 75bp to 50bp. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's hearing made it clear that a rate hike may lead to a recession, and it is challenging to achieve a soft landing, but the Fed will fight high inflation unconditionally. In order to reduce the pressure on oil prices, Biden expressed this week that he hopes to suspend the federal gasoline tax in the next three months. Brent crude oil prices once approached $107/barrel during the session, but supply and demand factors supported oil prices to close at $113/barrel this week.</p><p>Overall, under US dollar pricing, stocks > bonds > bulk; U.S. Chinese concept stocks, FAAMNG, Russian stock market, and Nasdaq led the gains; Wheat, natural gas, copper, soybeans and others led the decline. In terms of sectors, autos and parts, household goods, biotechnology, etc. in the S&P 500 led the gains, while only energy fell.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7793b1095eb898974815d115b18b5545\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Liquidity: FRA-OIS Narrows, Credit Spreads Higher</b></p><p>In the past week, the FRA-OIS spread narrowed to 20bp, the 90-day commercial bill spread in the financial industry widened, and the non-financial industry narrowed. Credit spreads all widened, and three-month cross-swaps between euro, yen, pound and dollar all narrowed. The willingness to lend funds in the US repo market has increased. In addition, the use of reverse repurchases by major U.S. financial institutions on the Federal Reserve's account dropped slightly but remained at a high level of US $2.2 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27b42fb05ab53b72567cc062011fc44b\" tg-width=\"997\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f03ee33446ac7eaac98e103647798bdf\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Emotional positions: Oversold in the US and Europe eased; U.S. stocks turn net short</b></p><p>In the past week, the VIX index has fallen as a whole, and the bearish/bullish ratio (10-day average) of US stocks has fallen. The oversold degree of European, American and emerging stock markets has eased. In terms of positions, speculative positions in U.S. stocks turned into net short positions, speculative net long positions in the U.S. dollar continued to increase, speculative net short positions in copper futures increased, net short positions in 10-year U.S. bonds increased, and net short positions in 2-year U.S. bonds decreased.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c809e3bf63c5c634305510bc15ca24f\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"733\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feb8364d0d2ce59fcb66c126a188f31b\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Fund flow: Bond outflows accelerate, U.S. stocks turn into outflows</b></p><p>In the past week, bond outflows have accelerated, stocks have turned to outflows, and money funds have turned to inflows. In terms of markets, the Japanese market has turned into inflows, Europe has accelerated outflows, and emerging markets and the United States have turned into outflows; South Korea and Vietnam recorded inflows, while India and China recorded significant outflows.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aa57fb5504f4f9ecf1c1143c8737a58\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7a5c011552507ab7f70bb132b98687a\" tg-width=\"982\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Fundamentals and policies: The initial PMI values of European and American manufacturing and service industries fell significantly</b></p><p><b>United States: The initial value of manufacturing PMI fell significantly in June, and demand weakened.</b>The Markit manufacturing PMI recorded 52.4 in June, lower than the previous value of 57 and the expected value of 56, a new low since July 2020. Against the background of high inflation and falling consumer confidence, weakening demand caused new PMI orders and output to fall sharply back to the contraction range in June, hitting a new low since June 2020. Supply deliveries improved slightly, and finished goods inventories rebounded, indicating a slight easing of supply pressure. The initial value of Markit services PMI in June was 51.6, lower than expectations (53.5) and the previous value (53.4), a five-month low.</p><p><b>Eurozone: The initial PMI value of manufacturing and service industries fell significantly in June.</b>The preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI value in June fell to 52, lower than expectations and previous values (53.8 and 54.6), the lowest level since August 2020. New orders, output and other sub-items have dropped significantly, and have fallen back to the contraction range. Under high inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, the economic growth and demand of the euro zone have weakened. Supply deliveries improved slightly, and finished goods inventories rebounded, indicating a slight easing of supply pressure. The preliminary value of the Services PMI fell to 52.8, which was lower than expectations and the previous values (54 and 54.8).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9147cb5405791940c42115acc3374dfd\" tg-width=\"1028\" tg-height=\"814\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Market valuation: still above reasonable levels for growth and liquidity</b></p><p><b>Still above reasonable levels of growth and liquidity.</b>The current dynamic P/E of the S&P 500 of 16.3 times is higher than the reasonable level that growth and liquidity can support (~ 15.1 times), and the valuation of U.S. stocks has fallen below the next standard deviation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab80789d31fe8c18bf2436ee0ecd8dfe\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"767\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d11bae2d8a5ee7beb59f5929e0ba85\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122634027","content_text":"6月FOMC加息75bp后，衰退担忧明显升温。在当前快加息背景下美国经济后续陷入衰退也不算意外。那么，衰退风险对美股有何启示？有何经验值得借鉴？一、衰退风险多大？增长放缓是既定事实，衰退也有相当可能，但衰退到来时间和深度更重要美国增长和盈利已处于放缓通道，后续衰退也有相当可能性，骤然加息本身就会对需求带来较大冲击。给定放缓甚至衰退可能性，衰退到来时间和深度更加重要。1）对于衰退时间，我们测算金融条件收紧对增长压力可能在今年底和明年初出现，并没那么快。2）对于衰退深度，当前美国非政府部门相对较为健康的资产负债表表明至少不面临较大的债务危机风险。二、当前“正确”的问题？如果深度衰退概率不大，政策何时退坡才是对市场更有意义的问题若深度衰退概率较小且不会很快到来，对市场更有意义的问题不是是否会衰退，而是政策何时能退坡。从我们测算的通胀和紧缩路径看，可能对应在三季度后四季度初。此时，市场可以进入债券和成长的交易逻辑。2019年初和1994年都有相似之处。三、不同衰退程度下的市场冲击：轻度衰退平均跌幅~20%、估值在下方一倍标准差有支撑上世纪20年代以来美国经历15次衰退。我们以GDP回落幅度划分衰退程度。对比深度衰退（回调幅度超过3%）和轻度衰退，前者通常伴随资产负债表冲击（如2008年），故持续时间更长（平均13个月）；市场跌幅明显更大，时点上更突然；地产金融等对衰退程度更敏感、科技成长较小；前者估值拖累更大且没有支撑位，轻度衰退估值能在均值下方一倍标准差找到支撑。本轮市场从高点跌幅已与轻度衰退相当（标普500回撤24%，纳斯达克34%）；当前16.3倍动态估值距13倍支撑位还有15~20%，我们基于3.5%10年美债测算合理水平为14倍附近。四、是否存在债务风险？美国资产负债表的薄弱环节除政府部门外，美国金融和非金融企业与居民宏观杠杆水平都处于相对健康水平，远低于2008年金融危机，这也是我们判断当前发生债务危机式的深度衰退概率较低的主要依据之一。一些薄弱环节，如高收益债、中低收入人群消费贷款等值得关注。焦点讨论：美国经济的衰退风险 vs. 美国市场的熊市压力6月FOMC会议美联储“临时”加息75bp后（《6月FOMC：激进且前置的路径或是当前“最优解”》），市场交易逻辑迅速从高通胀和快紧缩向弱增长切换，衰退担忧明显升温。受此影响，10年美债利率从3.5%的高点一度回落3%附近。与此同时，上周金铜比走高、油价大跌、成长风格纳斯达克领涨可能也都与这一预期有关。短期来看，我们认为市场对衰退担忧的反应不排除有过度之嫌。但是，当前美国增长逐步放缓也是不争的事实，在当前快加息的背景下后续陷入衰退也不算意外。那么，衰退风险对美股和美联储政策有何启示？历史上有什么经验值得借鉴？我们将在本文中具体分析。一、衰退风险有多大？增长放缓是既定事实，衰退也有相当可能，但衰退到来时间和深度更重要在高基数、高成本、高库存、高利率和弱需求的共同作用下，美国增长和企业盈利已经处于放缓通道且仍将继续回落（《美股盈利进入下行通道》），这也是当前市场的普遍共识。沿着这个路径继续下去，衰退也有相当可能性。尽管美联储主席鲍威尔在FOMC会议后和上周国会听证会上都表示主动引导衰退并不是美联储主观意愿（表示经济衰退可能性存在，且软着陆非常具有挑战性），但快加息带来的金融条件快速收紧本身就会对需求带来较大冲击（30年和10年房贷利率的骤升已经给美国房地产需求带来了立竿见影的负面影响，房贷申请数和房屋销售都快速回落），同时货币骤然紧缩的余波也势必会逐步显现出来（正如美国前财长萨默斯在近期接受专访中有关水龙头水温延时变化的形象比喻）。给定增长放缓甚至衰退的可能性，衰退到来时间和深度更加重要，因为过快陷入衰退将使得美联储政策面临两难境地，市场也将承受估值和盈利的双重压力；而深度衰退则将对盈利造成更加剧烈且持久的冲击。1) 对于衰退时间，我们尝试通过金融条件的松紧（融资成本超过投资回报率的程度）来估算，其好处是相比经济指标本身具有领先性且能够“观察”美联储的意图，因为过高的利率和过紧的金融条件必然带来更大增长压力的同时、也意味着美联储想要通过抑制需求来实现控制通胀的目的（回顾历史，当金融条件转正后，美联储通常便停止加息，仅上世纪七十年代末例外）。我们采用3m10s利差以及企业实际融资成本（投资级债券收益率）与投资回报率（实际GDP增速）这两个维度分别测算，以当前美联储点阵图和CME利率期货隐含的加息步伐计（7~11月分别加息75bp、50bp和25bp），金融条件收紧对增长压力可能在今年底和明年初出现（对应3m10s在11月倒挂、以及融资成本明年初超出投资回报率250bp的历史经验阈值）（《如何理解金融条件收紧的机制与影响》）。此外，Conference Board经济领先指标虽然年初以来持续下滑但同比增速尚未转负，从与衰退的关系看也表明可能还有一段距离。2) 对于衰退深度，当前美国非政府部门相对较为健康的资产负债表状况表明至少不面临较大的债务危机风险，换言之，即便出现衰退，可能大概率也不会是类似于2008年金融危机似的深度衰退。二、当前“正确”的问题？如果深度衰退概率不大，政策何时退坡才是对市场更有意义的问题如果深度衰退概率较小且可能不会很快到来，那么对市场而言更有意义的问题不是是否会衰退、而是政策何时能够退坡。在增长放缓的过程中，如果美联储政策完成“任务”之后（如通胀出现拐点且联邦基金利率有效超过中性利率）可以退坡甚至转向的话，那么市场则可以进入增长放缓且政策宽松的交易逻辑，根据我们基于实际利率和通胀预期的“改进版”美林时钟，通胀对应债券资产和股市成长风格相对跑赢。从我们测算的通胀和紧缩路径看，这一时点可能对应在三季度之后，主要是考虑到9月开始美国通胀将再度迎来同比高基数，同时当前加息路径可能在9月之后逐步降速。实际上，2019年初的市场企稳就呈现出这一特点，市场见底的契机是2019年初鲍威尔传递鸽派信号，但真正降息则是发生在半年后的2019年7月、增长好转更是要到三季度。1994年格林斯潘时期与当前类似的快速加息并没有导致市场以“崩盘”收场，在一定程度上也同样得益于政策的及时“收手”。三、不同衰退程度下的市场冲击：轻度衰退平均跌幅~20%、估值在一倍标准差下方有支撑不同衰退对经济冲击程度和时间不同，自然对市场的影响也就不同。参照美国国家经济研究局（NBER）的定义，上世纪20年代末以来美国共经历15次衰退，持续时间中值~10.1个月，其中最长的是1929年开启的大萧条（44个月），最短的是2020年疫情（仅2个月）。我们以GDP从峰值回落幅度来定义衰退程度，经验值看回调幅度超过3%为深度衰退、小于3%为轻度衰退。基于这一定义，上世纪20年代末以来，深度衰退共计7次（1929~1933年、1937~1938年、1945年、1957~1958年、1973~1975年、2007~2009年、2020年），持续时间中值13.2个月；轻度衰退8次（1948~1949年、1953~1954年、1960~1961年、1969~1970年、1980年、1981~1982年、1990年~1991年、2001年），平均持续时间10个月。一般而言，较大程度的衰退通常会伴随资产负债表的危机，因此冲击更大修复也更慢更难（典型如2008年金融危机），而小幅的衰退对资产负债表的冲击相对有限、修复也更快。基于上述划分，我们发现市场和板块表现也存在“泾渭分明”的差异。1）整体表现：深度衰退期间，标普500最大回撤中值44%，远大于轻度衰退期的19%的回撤。2）时点上看：市场下跌起点在深度衰退期间与衰退期更为贴近（高点领先1.5个月），而轻度衰退时下跌开始的更早（市场高点领先衰退2.4个月）；但结束时间恰好相反，市场底部早于深度衰退结束6个月，市场见底早于轻度衰退5.1个月。3）行业表现：日常消费及防御板块衰退期间跌幅普遍都较小、符合防御性板块特征；但房地产、金融服务、媒体、公用事业、保险等板块跌幅在深度衰退更剧烈，意味着此类板块对衰退程度更加敏感，相比之下成长风格的科技板块敏感度较低。4）估值与盈利：受限于估值数据，我们观察上世纪50年代以来不同衰退期间，盈利的拖累程度大体相当（深度衰退中值为2.4% vs. 轻度衰退中值为4.3%），估值拖累差异则更为显著（深度衰退中值35% vs. 轻度衰退18%）。5）估值绝对水平：标普500指数在过去三十年间基本都在均值下方一倍标准差的维持能够得到支撑（对应12个月动态估值13倍左右，如1994年加息周期、2002年科技泡沫低点、2018年市场动荡和2020年疫情）；相比之下深度衰退则会“破位”，如2008年深度衰退除期间，估值最低跌至9倍。对比来看，本轮市场从高点的跌幅已经接近轻度衰退的平均值（标普500最大回撤24%，纳斯达克最大回撤34%），而当前16.3倍的动态估值距离轻度衰退的支撑位还有20.5%的下行空间，我们基于3.5%的10年美债利率与当前增长环境测算合理水平为14倍左右。四、是否存在债务风险？美国资产负债表的薄弱环节整体来看，除政府部门外，美国金融和非金融企业与居民部门宏观杠杆水平都处于相对健康水平，远低于2008年金融危机，因此这也是我们判断当前发生债务危机式的深度衰退概率较低的主要依据之一。得益于次贷危机后美国居民持续去杠杆，以及疫情后美国三轮共计6万亿美元财政刺激保护了居民和企业资产负债表，美国当前居民杠杆率处于较低水平（75.1%vs. 2019年四季度74.2%），企业杠杆率也接近疫情前水平（77.7% vs. 2019年四季度75.1%），这也是鲍威尔此前称美国经济能够抵御紧缩压力的主要原因。在美联储加速紧缩的过程中，整体债务风险可控，但中间也存在一些薄弱环节需要关注。具体来看：1) 居民：总体资产负债表健康；中等收入人群敞口更大。2022年以来美国居民消费一直呈现相当韧性，在商品消费已经开始放缓的背景下，服务消费仍保持较高增速。但当前仍充沛的超额储蓄（2.3万亿美元）、有韧性的居民消费，与已经持续下探到低点的消费者信心出现了较大背离，如密歇根大学消费者情绪指数5月50.2，超过次贷危机时期，达到了上世纪70年代水平；世界大型企业联合会（Conference Board）消费者信心指数4月为106相对更高，这背后可能体现出不同收入水平人群的分化。a）高收入人群资产增幅高，杠杆低。截至一季度，收入前20%居民现金类资产（储蓄和货币基金）较2019年四季度增长 41.4%，负债/资产则是所有人群中最低（3.8%）。b）中等收入人群高杠杆，收入分位在20%~80%居民负债/资产接近20%，但低于次贷危机水平。c）低收入人群现金资产下降但负债不高。收入分位在后20%的人群主要问题是资产不高（一季度现金类资产环比下降1.2%），更容易受高通胀的挤压，但相对积极的是其负债也不高（15%），因此不面临较大的违约风险。从居民端不同类别负债看，学生贷款、汽车贷款和消费信贷的规模和占比从金融危机以来提升幅度都要远高于房贷（截至一季度房贷/GDP为50.2%，消费贷/GDP为18.6%，但提升更快），因此可能是更值得关注的薄弱环节。2) 企业端：整体杠杆改善，偿付能力提升；关注高收益债和小企业敞口。虽然美国企业端并未像居民端经历大幅去杠杆过程，一季度非金融企业杠杆率为78%，标普500非金融企业净杠杆率74%，均高于次贷危机时期，但相对疫情以来仍有改善，且偿付能力也有所修复（《美股盈利进入下行通道》）。我们在《从欧日债市动荡看紧缩下的薄弱环节》中指出，美国信用利差近期快速上升（高收益和投资级分别为5.3ppt和2.0ppt），为2015年以来新高。信用债尤其是高收益债近期大幅跑输国债，并伴随明显的资金流出，因此潜在的风险敞口值得关注。但相对积极的是，美国高收益债到期规模截至2023年末只有800亿美元，偿付压力并不算大。此外，美国小企业受高成本和金融条件收紧也值得关注。我们以流动资产/短期负债观测企业短期流动性压力以及违约风险，发现在美国上市公司中~17%小于1，以能源、原材料、消费服务占比最高；不过市值占比只有0.6%，这表明风险敞口更多以小企业为主，且集中在公用事业、金融和通讯等板块。市场动态：鲍威尔强调抗通胀立场；衰退担忧升温，表现为利率回落、大宗大跌，成长领先，加息预期回落►资产表现：资产表现：股>债>大宗；衰退担忧升温，利率回落、大宗大跌，成长领先过去一周市场衰退担忧升温，表现体现为10年美债利率回落至3.1%、大宗普遍下跌，FAAMNG、纳斯达克为代表的成长风格反弹明显。美国6月Markit制造业PMI初值回落进一步反映这一情形，市场加息预期回落，9月加息幅度由75bp回落至50bp。美联储主席鲍威尔听证会明确表示加息或可能导致衰退，实现软着陆具有挑战性，但美联储将无条件抗击高通胀。为降低油价压力，拜登本周表示希望在未来三个月内暂停联邦汽油税，布伦特原油价格盘中一度逼近107美元/桶，但供需因素支撑油价本周收于113美元/桶。整体看，美元计价下，股>债>大宗；美国中概股、FAAMNG、俄罗斯股市、纳斯达克领涨；小麦、天然气、铜、大豆等领跌。板块方面，标普500中汽车与零部件、家庭用品、生物科技等领涨，仅能源下跌。►流动性：FRA-OIS收窄，信用利差走高过去一周，FRA-OIS利差收窄至20bp，90天金融行业商票利差走扩，非金融行业收窄。信用利差均走扩，欧元、日元、英镑与美元的3个月交叉互换均收窄。美国回购市场资金出借意愿增加。此外，美国主要金融机构在美联储账上逆回购使用量略回落但仍维持2.2万亿美元的高位。►情绪仓位：美欧超卖缓解；美股转为净空头过去一周，VIX指数整体回落，美股看空/看多比例（10天平均）回落。欧美及新兴股市超卖程度有所趋缓。仓位方面，美股投机性仓位转为净空头，美元投机性净多头仓位持续增加，铜期货投机性净空头仓位增加，10年美债净空头仓位增加，2年美债净空头仓位减少。►资金流向：债券加速流出，美股转为流出过去一周，债券加速流出，股票转为流出，货币基金转为流入。分市场看，日本市场转为流入，欧洲加速流出，新兴市场、美国转为流出；韩国、越南录得流入，印度、中国流出明显。►基本面与政策：欧美制造业与服务业PMI初值回落明显美国：6月制造业PMI初值回落明显，需求趋弱。6月Markit制造业PMI录得52.4，低于前值57和预期值56，创2020年7月以来新低。在通胀高企、消费者信心回落的背景下，需求趋弱导致6月PMI新订单、产出大幅回落至收缩区间，创2020年6月以来新低。供应交付小幅改善，产成品库存有所回升，表明供应压力略有缓解。6月Markit 服务业PMI初值为51.6，低于预期（53.5）和前值（53.4），为5个月以来新低。欧元区：6月制造业和服务业PMI初值回落明显。6月Markit制造业PMI初值降至52，低于预期和前值（53.8和54.6），为2020年8月以来的最低水平。新订单、产出等分项回落明显，且已回落至收缩区间，在高通胀及地缘政治不确定性下欧元区经济增长和需求趋弱。供应交付小幅改善，产成品库存有所回升，表明供应压力略有缓解。服务业PMI初值降至52.8，低于预期和前值（54和54.8）。►市场估值：仍然高于增长和流动性合理水平仍然高于增长和流动性合理水平。当前标普500的16.3倍动态P/E高于增长和流动性能够支撑的合理水平（~15.1倍），美股估值已低于向下一倍标准差。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":695,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9041887135,"gmtCreate":1656033422127,"gmtModify":1676535754834,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9041887135","repostId":"1147384376","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147384376","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1656028464,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147384376?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-24 07:54","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | U.S. stocks rebounded thrillingly! Zhonggai is bright, XPeng vehicles rose nearly 8%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147384376","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①隔夜美股集体收高，热门中概股多数收涨；②美油创5月来最低收盘价；③美国两项PMI指标均跌至近两年低位；④桥水基金将做空欧股押注翻倍至105亿美元；⑤俄罗斯考虑减免粮食出口关税；⑥欧盟批准乌克兰","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① U.S. stocks collectively closed higher overnight, and most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher; ② U.S. oil hit its lowest closing price since May; ③ Both PMI indicators in the United States fell to nearly two-year lows; ④ Bridgewater Fund doubled its bet on short European stocks to US $10.5 billion; ⑤ Russia considers reducing or exempting grain export tariffs; ⑥ The EU approved Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries. Overseas Market</p><p>1. U.S. stocks collectively closed higher overnight, and most U.S. technology stocks rose</p><p>U.S. stocks closed, and the three major stock indexes collectively closed higher. As of the close, the Dow rose 0.64%, the Nasdaq rose 1.62%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.95%.</p><p>U.S. tech stocks closed mostly higher, with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Up 2.16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Down 0.43%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Up 3.20%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google A</a>Up 0.68%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>Up 1.58%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Up 2.26%; The concept of economic restart has mostly weakened,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>Fell 0.92%, United Airlines fell 2.48%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">Royal Caribbean Cruises</a>Down 1.69%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Fell 2.33%. In addition, Internet technology stocks, new energy vehicles, consumer and pharmaceutical sectors all rose sharply.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher, led by the new energy vehicle sector</p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher on Thursday, led by the new energy vehicle sector.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Rose nearly 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up 6.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>ADR rose 3.7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Up more than 2%.</p><p>For other Chinese concept stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Closed up 6.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 2.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up nearly 0.8%, while<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>It fell nearly 0.9%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">Dingdong Maicai</a>Rose more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>, Dada rose more than 6%, Wuxin Technology, the first e-cigarette stock, rose more than 5%, Bilibili,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">Tiger Tooth</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XNET\">Thunder</a>Up more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Powder sheet,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">Kingsoft Cloud</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>Rose more than 1%, and just ended a three-game losing streak on Wednesday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Closed down nearly 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Betta fish</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>Education fell 0.5%, NetEase<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAO\">Youdao</a>It fell nearly 0.4%.</p><p>3. Major European stock indexes collectively closed down, the German DAX index fell 1.72%</p><p>European stocks closed, and the three major stock indexes closed down across the board. Germany's DAX index fell 1.72%, France's CAC index fell 0.56%, Britain's FTSE index fell 1%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell 0.77%.</p><p>4. U.S. WTI crude oil closed down 1.8% on Thursday, the lowest closing price since May 10</p><p>U.S. crude oil futures prices fell for the second consecutive session on Thursday. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.92, or 1.81%, to close at $104.27 a barrel, the lowest closing price since May 10. Investors are worried that aggressive rate hike by the Federal Reserve could trigger a recession, which could dampen fuel demand.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 0.5%, closing down for the fourth consecutive day</p><p>New York gold futures prices fell for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $8.60, or 0.5%, to close at $1,829.80 an ounce. Analysts pointed out that the main reason for the decline in gold prices on Thursday was the strengthening of the US dollar, which was due to market expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more hawkish monetary policy.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. The use of the Fed's reverse repurchase facility hits a new record of US $2.285 trillion</p><p>The use of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase facility hit a new high on Thursday. 89 participants spent $2.285 trillion, exceeding the previous high of $2.259 trillion hit on Wednesday. The instrument pays an overnight rate of 0.80%; Its interest rates change in line with Fed policy.</p><p>2. Powell reiterates \"unconditional\" commitment to fighting inflation, saying recession is not inevitable</p><p>While Democrats warned of recession risks, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed's commitment to fighting inflation was \"unconditional.\" Another Fed governor supports another 75 basis point interest rate hike next month. In testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday, Powell said, \"The overheating of our labor market is a bit unsustainable, and we are still far from the inflation target right now. We really need to restore price stability and bring inflation back to 2%, because if we don't do so, we won't achieve sustainable full employment.\" Powell reiterated that the Fed still wants a soft landing for the economy, although the process will be more difficult.</p><p>3. Fed Governor Bowman supports a 75 basis point rate hike in July</p><p>Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said she supports a 75 basis point rate hike in July, followed by several 50 basis point rate hike. In remarks prepared for an event organized by the Massachusetts Bankers Association, Bowman said, \"Based on the current inflation data, I expect a rate hike of 75 basis points at the next meeting to be appropriate, as long as the data supports it, in the next few meetings. rate hike should be at least 50 basis points. Depending on how the economy develops, further increases in the federal funds target rate range may need to be needed afterwards.\"</p><p>4. U.S. mortgage rates rose to 5.81%, the highest level since 2008</p><p>Mortgage rates in the United States are climbing again to a 14-year high. In a statement released Thursday, Freddie Mac said the average 30-year mortgage rate was 5.81%, up from 5.78% last week. This trend runs counter to the decline in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields. The previous week, the interest rate recorded its biggest weekly increase since 1987.</p><p>5. Falling U.S. corporate activity, soaring inflation causes factory orders and production to shrink</p><p>U.S. business activity took a firm step back in June, as rapidly rising inflation reduced demand for services and caused factory orders and production to shrink directly. The preliminary value of the U.S. composite output index for June released by S&P Global on Thursday slipped 2.4 points to 51.2. While still above 50, this is the second-lowest level since July 2020, when the economy was struggling to emerge from the pandemic-induced recession.</p><p>6. Is the U.S. economy in full swing? Both PMI indicators fell near two-year lows</p><p>Financial Analytics Company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>The latest data report released by (S&P Global) on Thursday (June 23rd) showed that the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of manufacturing and service industries in the United States both experienced a larger-than-expected decline in June. Specific data shows that the initial value of U.S. manufacturing PMI in June recorded 52.4, a new 23-month low, far lower than market expectations of 56 and 57 in May. The initial value of the manufacturing output index recorded 49.6, a 24-month low, far lower than last month's 55.2. The initial value of the business activity index (service PMI) in June recorded 51.6, significantly lower than market expectations of 53.5 and 53.4 in May, setting a new five-month low and falling below 52 for the third time since July 2020.</p><p>7. The U.S. Supreme Court overturns a New York gun law that will allow more people to legally hold guns</p><p>On June 23rd, local time, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a restrictive gun law in New York in a major ruling on gun rights, which will allow more people to legally hold guns on the streets. The justices voted 6-3 to overturn a restrictive New York gun law that required people to prove they specifically need to carry firearms in order to get a license to carry them in public. The justices said the requirement violated the Second Amendment right to \"keep and bear weapons.\" It is reported that California, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Rhode Island all have similar laws and may be challenged by this ruling.</p><p>8. U.S. senators sent a letter to Biden saying that he should consider restricting crude oil exports</p><p>U.S. Democratic senators urged President Joe Biden to limit crude oil exports to ensure oil supplies to the United States and its allies. In a letter, Senators Jack Reed, Tammy Duckworth, Tammy Baldwin and Jeanne Shaheen said the \"severe spike\" in energy prices gave reason to use this power.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">US Energy</a>Minister Jennifer Granholm is scheduled to meet with oil business executives today.</p><p>9. The U.S. House of Representatives Special Investigation Committee held its fifth public hearing on the Capitol riot</p><p>On June 23, local time, the Special Investigation Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives held its fifth public hearing on the investigation of the Capitol riot on January 6 last year. Bennie Thompson, chairman of the special investigation committee, pointed out at the hearing that former President Trump wanted the Justice Department to \"legalize\" his election lies and put pressure on multiple officials. White House lawyer Eric Hirschman testified that Jeffrey Clark, a former senior Justice Department official, had indicated that he wanted to use Justice Department power to assist Trump's plan.</p><p>10. Omicron BA.4/5 is coming fiercely: repeated infection of the mutant strain with the strongest immune escape ability</p><p>According to data recently released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Omicron's new mutant strains BA.4 and BA.5 are dominating the United States, accounting for 34.9% of new cases in the United States. Worryingly, research shows that BA.4/5 is by far the Novel Coronavirus variant with the strongest immune escape ability. It can reinfect and walk through the lungs. These characteristics mean that they may lead to more hospitalizations and deaths.</p><p>11. Bridgewater Fund will double its bet on shorting European stocks to US $10.5 billion</p><p>Bridgewater doubled its short bets on European stocks to $10.5 billion, nearly doubling in the past week, and its bearish strength on stocks in the region reached its highest level in two years. The world's largest hedge fund firm disclosed short bets on 28 companies, including on<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0O59.UK\">Sanofi</a>And SAP's personal bets exceed $500 million.</p><p>Last week's data showed that Bridgewater has become the largest short seller in European stock markets, betting more than $5.7 billion against European stocks. The investments include a $1 billion short bet on semiconductor maker ASML and a $1 billion short bet on semiconductor maker ASML, according to data compiled based on regulatory filings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOT\">Total</a>About $752 million in short bets. The number of European companies it has shorted this month has increased to 18.</p><p>12. Russia considers reducing or exempting grain export tariffs</p><p>According to the Interfax news agency, Russia may gradually switch to rubles to levy grain tariffs and consider reducing or exempting grain export tariffs.</p><p>13. ECB official Kazimir: ECB interest rates may reach 1.5%-2% within a year</p><p>Peter Kazimir, a member of the ECB's Governing Council and governor of the Slovakian central bank, said that the ECB may raise interest rates by more than 200 basis points in the next 12 months, bringing interest rates to 1.5%-2% a year from now. Kazimir expects 25 basis points in rate hike in July and then possibly 50 basis points in rate hike in September. \"It all depends on upcoming data.\" Kazimir said some eurozone countries could fall into a \"technical recession\".</p><p>14. German Chancellor Scholz: The EU must be prepared for expansion</p><p>On Thursday (June 23) local time, German Chancellor Scholz said that given that Ukraine and Moldova will obtain candidate country status, the EU should prepare for enlargement. Scholz stressed that in order for a larger alliance to work, more decisions should be adopted on the principle of majority vote instead of requiring unanimity. At present, the EU adopts the principle of unanimous adoption in key decisions, which means that all 27 EU member states have the right to veto policies that they do not approve of with one vote. Previously, due to the opposition of Hungary and other countries, the EU delayed about a month before officially launching the sixth round of sanctions against Russia.</p><p>15. Inflation reaches 21-year high, Mexican central bank announces a rate hike of 75 basis points</p><p>The central bank of Mexico accelerated the pace of raising interest rates on Thursday after data showed that prices rose year-on-year in early June to a 21-year high. Mexico's central bank raised its key interest rate by 75 basis points to 7.75%, in line with expectations of all 27 economists surveyed. The rate hike is also the largest since the bank adopted inflation targeting in 2008, and is the same as the Federal Reserve's rate hike last week. Mexico's central bank generally tends to emulate the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions to avoid sudden capital outflows.</p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine</p><p>1. The EU approves Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries</p><p>European Council President Michel announced on the 23rd local time that the EU summit that day agreed to approve Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries and Georgia as a potential candidate country. Michel called this a historic moment and marked a crucial step for Ukraine towards the EU. European Commission President von der Leyen said that this decision not only strengthens the strength of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, but also the strength of the European Union. The decision of the EU summit was made at the proposal of the European Commission on the 17th of this month.</p><p>2. Zelensky: Ukraine's obtaining EU candidate status is a unique historical moment in Ukraine's relations with the EU</p><p>On the 23rd local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky posted on official social media that Ukraine has obtained EU candidate status, saying that this is a unique historical moment in Ukraine's relations with the EU, and expressed his gratitude to EU leaders for their support.</p><p>3. U.S. official: The United States will provide another $450 million in military assistance to Ukraine</p><p>According to an Associated Press report on June 23, local time, U.S. officials stated that the United States will provide Ukraine with an additional $450 million in military assistance, including the \"Haimas\" high-mobility multiple rocket system, ammunition and other supplies. It is reported that the U.S. government announced on the 15th that it would provide an additional $1 billion in military assistance to Ukraine.</p><p>4. Germany warns Russia that it may trigger energy market collapse</p><p>Germany warned that Russia's reduction of natural gas supplies to Europe could trigger a collapse in the energy market, which was as influential as the financial crisis triggered by Lehman Brothers. After raising Germany's natural gas risk level to the second highest \"alert\" level, Economy Minister Robert Habeck said that losses for energy suppliers are increasing day by day as they are forced to make up for lost gas at high prices, which has a negative impact on the local utility industry. There may be spillover risks for its users, including consumers and businesses. Habeck said at a press conference in Berlin, \"If the losses are too big for them to bear, then the entire market will collapse at some point. This is the Lehman effect of the energy system.\"</p><p>5. Affected by sanctions against Russia, Japan's construction timber supply is difficult</p><p>As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to cause chaos in the international industrial chain and supply chain, it has brought more and more impact to many countries around the world. Because of the frequent earthquakes in Japan, many buildings are made of wood, so the demand for wood is very large. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Japan was no longer able to import large amounts of Russian timber, which had a great impact on the supply of Japanese timber.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245722181\" target=\"_blank\">Nike will fully withdraw from the Russian market</a></p><p>American sports brand Nike said in an emailed statement on Thursday local time that it will completely withdraw from the Russian market after three months of suspension of Russian operations. The analysis pointed out that for Nike, this move is largely symbolic and will have little substantial impact. The combined revenue from Ukraine and Russia is less than 1% of Nike's total revenue.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Says congressional delays threaten to shrink Ohio plant plans</p><p>In a statement sent to the media on Thursday, Intel made it clear: \"Unfortunately, the CHIPS chip bill in the U.S. Congress is progressing slowly, and the company doesn't know exactly when there will be results. Now is the time for Congress to take action so that Intel can move forward at the speed and scale long envisioned for Ohio and other projects.\"</p><p>According to local media reports, the groundbreaking ceremony for Intel's Ohio factory was originally scheduled to be held on July 22, but the company informed Ohio Governor Mike DeWine's office and members of the Ohio congressional delegation on Wednesday that it would postpone the groundbreaking time.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245222074\" target=\"_blank\">E-cigarette manufacturers hit hard! FDA bans JUUL products from entering the US market</a></p><p>The U.S. FDA announced on Thursday that it will ban Juul e-cigarettes from being sold or distributed in the U.S. market, with regulators saying it lacks \"sufficient evidence\" to show that the sale of the product is appropriate for public health. Juul CEO Joe Murillo responded that he did not approve of the FDA's judgment and would exhaust regulatory and related legal options and seek ways to remain in the US market.</p><p>4. The U.S. Court of Appeals rejected<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">Cisco</a>Adverse $2.7 billion in tort damages</p><p>On Thursday, local time, the U.S. Federal Court of Appeals made a ruling to revoke the lower court's compensation in support of Centripetal's patent infringement case against Cisco. The reason is that the judge Morgan who heard the case did not take recusal measures on the premise that his wife held Cisco shares. At that time, Morgan ruled that Cisco should pay Centripetal $1.9 billion in infringement compensation, plus patent licensing fees, and the overall compensation would exceed $2.7 billion.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245371220\" target=\"_blank\">Netflix cuts 300 jobs as revenue growth slows</a></p><p>According to local media reports, streaming media giant Netflix recently laid off 300 employees after laying off 150 employees last month, equivalent to about 3% of the company's employees. Subsequently, the company also confirmed this matter and said that these adjustments were made to ensure that costs matched the decline in revenue growth.</p><p>6. The U.S. Energy Secretary meets with executives of seven major oil companies</p><p>According to an announcement from the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Secretary Granholm held offline talks with CEOs and executives of seven major U.S. oil companies on Thursday and reminded these companies that they must come up with solutions to ensure safe and affordable fuel supply.</p><p>According to local media reports, Phillips 66, the fourth largest refiner in the United States (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSX\">Phillips 66</a>) Wilmington Refinery reported an unexpected fire on June 23.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | U.S. stocks rebounded thrillingly! Zhonggai is bright, XPeng vehicles rose nearly 8%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | U.S. stocks rebounded thrillingly! Zhonggai is bright, XPeng vehicles rose nearly 8%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-24 07:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① U.S. stocks collectively closed higher overnight, and most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher; ② U.S. oil hit its lowest closing price since May; ③ Both PMI indicators in the United States fell to nearly two-year lows; ④ Bridgewater Fund doubled its bet on short European stocks to US $10.5 billion; ⑤ Russia considers reducing or exempting grain export tariffs; ⑥ The EU approved Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries. Overseas Market</p><p>1. U.S. stocks collectively closed higher overnight, and most U.S. technology stocks rose</p><p>U.S. stocks closed, and the three major stock indexes collectively closed higher. As of the close, the Dow rose 0.64%, the Nasdaq rose 1.62%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.95%.</p><p>U.S. tech stocks closed mostly higher, with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Up 2.16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Down 0.43%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Up 3.20%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google A</a>Up 0.68%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>Up 1.58%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Up 2.26%; The concept of economic restart has mostly weakened,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>Fell 0.92%, United Airlines fell 2.48%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">Royal Caribbean Cruises</a>Down 1.69%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Fell 2.33%. In addition, Internet technology stocks, new energy vehicles, consumer and pharmaceutical sectors all rose sharply.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher, led by the new energy vehicle sector</p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher on Thursday, led by the new energy vehicle sector.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Rose nearly 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up 6.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>ADR rose 3.7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Up more than 2%.</p><p>For other Chinese concept stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Closed up 6.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 2.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up nearly 0.8%, while<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>It fell nearly 0.9%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">Dingdong Maicai</a>Rose more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>, Dada rose more than 6%, Wuxin Technology, the first e-cigarette stock, rose more than 5%, Bilibili,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">Tiger Tooth</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XNET\">Thunder</a>Up more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Powder sheet,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">Kingsoft Cloud</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>Rose more than 1%, and just ended a three-game losing streak on Wednesday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Closed down nearly 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Betta fish</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>Education fell 0.5%, NetEase<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAO\">Youdao</a>It fell nearly 0.4%.</p><p>3. Major European stock indexes collectively closed down, the German DAX index fell 1.72%</p><p>European stocks closed, and the three major stock indexes closed down across the board. Germany's DAX index fell 1.72%, France's CAC index fell 0.56%, Britain's FTSE index fell 1%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell 0.77%.</p><p>4. U.S. WTI crude oil closed down 1.8% on Thursday, the lowest closing price since May 10</p><p>U.S. crude oil futures prices fell for the second consecutive session on Thursday. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.92, or 1.81%, to close at $104.27 a barrel, the lowest closing price since May 10. Investors are worried that aggressive rate hike by the Federal Reserve could trigger a recession, which could dampen fuel demand.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 0.5%, closing down for the fourth consecutive day</p><p>New York gold futures prices fell for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $8.60, or 0.5%, to close at $1,829.80 an ounce. Analysts pointed out that the main reason for the decline in gold prices on Thursday was the strengthening of the US dollar, which was due to market expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more hawkish monetary policy.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. The use of the Fed's reverse repurchase facility hits a new record of US $2.285 trillion</p><p>The use of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase facility hit a new high on Thursday. 89 participants spent $2.285 trillion, exceeding the previous high of $2.259 trillion hit on Wednesday. The instrument pays an overnight rate of 0.80%; Its interest rates change in line with Fed policy.</p><p>2. Powell reiterates \"unconditional\" commitment to fighting inflation, saying recession is not inevitable</p><p>While Democrats warned of recession risks, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed's commitment to fighting inflation was \"unconditional.\" Another Fed governor supports another 75 basis point interest rate hike next month. In testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday, Powell said, \"The overheating of our labor market is a bit unsustainable, and we are still far from the inflation target right now. We really need to restore price stability and bring inflation back to 2%, because if we don't do so, we won't achieve sustainable full employment.\" Powell reiterated that the Fed still wants a soft landing for the economy, although the process will be more difficult.</p><p>3. Fed Governor Bowman supports a 75 basis point rate hike in July</p><p>Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said she supports a 75 basis point rate hike in July, followed by several 50 basis point rate hike. In remarks prepared for an event organized by the Massachusetts Bankers Association, Bowman said, \"Based on the current inflation data, I expect a rate hike of 75 basis points at the next meeting to be appropriate, as long as the data supports it, in the next few meetings. rate hike should be at least 50 basis points. Depending on how the economy develops, further increases in the federal funds target rate range may need to be needed afterwards.\"</p><p>4. U.S. mortgage rates rose to 5.81%, the highest level since 2008</p><p>Mortgage rates in the United States are climbing again to a 14-year high. In a statement released Thursday, Freddie Mac said the average 30-year mortgage rate was 5.81%, up from 5.78% last week. This trend runs counter to the decline in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields. The previous week, the interest rate recorded its biggest weekly increase since 1987.</p><p>5. Falling U.S. corporate activity, soaring inflation causes factory orders and production to shrink</p><p>U.S. business activity took a firm step back in June, as rapidly rising inflation reduced demand for services and caused factory orders and production to shrink directly. The preliminary value of the U.S. composite output index for June released by S&P Global on Thursday slipped 2.4 points to 51.2. While still above 50, this is the second-lowest level since July 2020, when the economy was struggling to emerge from the pandemic-induced recession.</p><p>6. Is the U.S. economy in full swing? Both PMI indicators fell near two-year lows</p><p>Financial Analytics Company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>The latest data report released by (S&P Global) on Thursday (June 23rd) showed that the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of manufacturing and service industries in the United States both experienced a larger-than-expected decline in June. Specific data shows that the initial value of U.S. manufacturing PMI in June recorded 52.4, a new 23-month low, far lower than market expectations of 56 and 57 in May. The initial value of the manufacturing output index recorded 49.6, a 24-month low, far lower than last month's 55.2. The initial value of the business activity index (service PMI) in June recorded 51.6, significantly lower than market expectations of 53.5 and 53.4 in May, setting a new five-month low and falling below 52 for the third time since July 2020.</p><p>7. The U.S. Supreme Court overturns a New York gun law that will allow more people to legally hold guns</p><p>On June 23rd, local time, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a restrictive gun law in New York in a major ruling on gun rights, which will allow more people to legally hold guns on the streets. The justices voted 6-3 to overturn a restrictive New York gun law that required people to prove they specifically need to carry firearms in order to get a license to carry them in public. The justices said the requirement violated the Second Amendment right to \"keep and bear weapons.\" It is reported that California, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Rhode Island all have similar laws and may be challenged by this ruling.</p><p>8. U.S. senators sent a letter to Biden saying that he should consider restricting crude oil exports</p><p>U.S. Democratic senators urged President Joe Biden to limit crude oil exports to ensure oil supplies to the United States and its allies. In a letter, Senators Jack Reed, Tammy Duckworth, Tammy Baldwin and Jeanne Shaheen said the \"severe spike\" in energy prices gave reason to use this power.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">US Energy</a>Minister Jennifer Granholm is scheduled to meet with oil business executives today.</p><p>9. The U.S. House of Representatives Special Investigation Committee held its fifth public hearing on the Capitol riot</p><p>On June 23, local time, the Special Investigation Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives held its fifth public hearing on the investigation of the Capitol riot on January 6 last year. Bennie Thompson, chairman of the special investigation committee, pointed out at the hearing that former President Trump wanted the Justice Department to \"legalize\" his election lies and put pressure on multiple officials. White House lawyer Eric Hirschman testified that Jeffrey Clark, a former senior Justice Department official, had indicated that he wanted to use Justice Department power to assist Trump's plan.</p><p>10. Omicron BA.4/5 is coming fiercely: repeated infection of the mutant strain with the strongest immune escape ability</p><p>According to data recently released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Omicron's new mutant strains BA.4 and BA.5 are dominating the United States, accounting for 34.9% of new cases in the United States. Worryingly, research shows that BA.4/5 is by far the Novel Coronavirus variant with the strongest immune escape ability. It can reinfect and walk through the lungs. These characteristics mean that they may lead to more hospitalizations and deaths.</p><p>11. Bridgewater Fund will double its bet on shorting European stocks to US $10.5 billion</p><p>Bridgewater doubled its short bets on European stocks to $10.5 billion, nearly doubling in the past week, and its bearish strength on stocks in the region reached its highest level in two years. The world's largest hedge fund firm disclosed short bets on 28 companies, including on<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0O59.UK\">Sanofi</a>And SAP's personal bets exceed $500 million.</p><p>Last week's data showed that Bridgewater has become the largest short seller in European stock markets, betting more than $5.7 billion against European stocks. The investments include a $1 billion short bet on semiconductor maker ASML and a $1 billion short bet on semiconductor maker ASML, according to data compiled based on regulatory filings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOT\">Total</a>About $752 million in short bets. The number of European companies it has shorted this month has increased to 18.</p><p>12. Russia considers reducing or exempting grain export tariffs</p><p>According to the Interfax news agency, Russia may gradually switch to rubles to levy grain tariffs and consider reducing or exempting grain export tariffs.</p><p>13. ECB official Kazimir: ECB interest rates may reach 1.5%-2% within a year</p><p>Peter Kazimir, a member of the ECB's Governing Council and governor of the Slovakian central bank, said that the ECB may raise interest rates by more than 200 basis points in the next 12 months, bringing interest rates to 1.5%-2% a year from now. Kazimir expects 25 basis points in rate hike in July and then possibly 50 basis points in rate hike in September. \"It all depends on upcoming data.\" Kazimir said some eurozone countries could fall into a \"technical recession\".</p><p>14. German Chancellor Scholz: The EU must be prepared for expansion</p><p>On Thursday (June 23) local time, German Chancellor Scholz said that given that Ukraine and Moldova will obtain candidate country status, the EU should prepare for enlargement. Scholz stressed that in order for a larger alliance to work, more decisions should be adopted on the principle of majority vote instead of requiring unanimity. At present, the EU adopts the principle of unanimous adoption in key decisions, which means that all 27 EU member states have the right to veto policies that they do not approve of with one vote. Previously, due to the opposition of Hungary and other countries, the EU delayed about a month before officially launching the sixth round of sanctions against Russia.</p><p>15. Inflation reaches 21-year high, Mexican central bank announces a rate hike of 75 basis points</p><p>The central bank of Mexico accelerated the pace of raising interest rates on Thursday after data showed that prices rose year-on-year in early June to a 21-year high. Mexico's central bank raised its key interest rate by 75 basis points to 7.75%, in line with expectations of all 27 economists surveyed. The rate hike is also the largest since the bank adopted inflation targeting in 2008, and is the same as the Federal Reserve's rate hike last week. Mexico's central bank generally tends to emulate the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions to avoid sudden capital outflows.</p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine</p><p>1. The EU approves Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries</p><p>European Council President Michel announced on the 23rd local time that the EU summit that day agreed to approve Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries and Georgia as a potential candidate country. Michel called this a historic moment and marked a crucial step for Ukraine towards the EU. European Commission President von der Leyen said that this decision not only strengthens the strength of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, but also the strength of the European Union. The decision of the EU summit was made at the proposal of the European Commission on the 17th of this month.</p><p>2. Zelensky: Ukraine's obtaining EU candidate status is a unique historical moment in Ukraine's relations with the EU</p><p>On the 23rd local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky posted on official social media that Ukraine has obtained EU candidate status, saying that this is a unique historical moment in Ukraine's relations with the EU, and expressed his gratitude to EU leaders for their support.</p><p>3. U.S. official: The United States will provide another $450 million in military assistance to Ukraine</p><p>According to an Associated Press report on June 23, local time, U.S. officials stated that the United States will provide Ukraine with an additional $450 million in military assistance, including the \"Haimas\" high-mobility multiple rocket system, ammunition and other supplies. It is reported that the U.S. government announced on the 15th that it would provide an additional $1 billion in military assistance to Ukraine.</p><p>4. Germany warns Russia that it may trigger energy market collapse</p><p>Germany warned that Russia's reduction of natural gas supplies to Europe could trigger a collapse in the energy market, which was as influential as the financial crisis triggered by Lehman Brothers. After raising Germany's natural gas risk level to the second highest \"alert\" level, Economy Minister Robert Habeck said that losses for energy suppliers are increasing day by day as they are forced to make up for lost gas at high prices, which has a negative impact on the local utility industry. There may be spillover risks for its users, including consumers and businesses. Habeck said at a press conference in Berlin, \"If the losses are too big for them to bear, then the entire market will collapse at some point. This is the Lehman effect of the energy system.\"</p><p>5. Affected by sanctions against Russia, Japan's construction timber supply is difficult</p><p>As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to cause chaos in the international industrial chain and supply chain, it has brought more and more impact to many countries around the world. Because of the frequent earthquakes in Japan, many buildings are made of wood, so the demand for wood is very large. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Japan was no longer able to import large amounts of Russian timber, which had a great impact on the supply of Japanese timber.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245722181\" target=\"_blank\">Nike will fully withdraw from the Russian market</a></p><p>American sports brand Nike said in an emailed statement on Thursday local time that it will completely withdraw from the Russian market after three months of suspension of Russian operations. The analysis pointed out that for Nike, this move is largely symbolic and will have little substantial impact. The combined revenue from Ukraine and Russia is less than 1% of Nike's total revenue.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Says congressional delays threaten to shrink Ohio plant plans</p><p>In a statement sent to the media on Thursday, Intel made it clear: \"Unfortunately, the CHIPS chip bill in the U.S. Congress is progressing slowly, and the company doesn't know exactly when there will be results. Now is the time for Congress to take action so that Intel can move forward at the speed and scale long envisioned for Ohio and other projects.\"</p><p>According to local media reports, the groundbreaking ceremony for Intel's Ohio factory was originally scheduled to be held on July 22, but the company informed Ohio Governor Mike DeWine's office and members of the Ohio congressional delegation on Wednesday that it would postpone the groundbreaking time.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245222074\" target=\"_blank\">E-cigarette manufacturers hit hard! FDA bans JUUL products from entering the US market</a></p><p>The U.S. FDA announced on Thursday that it will ban Juul e-cigarettes from being sold or distributed in the U.S. market, with regulators saying it lacks \"sufficient evidence\" to show that the sale of the product is appropriate for public health. Juul CEO Joe Murillo responded that he did not approve of the FDA's judgment and would exhaust regulatory and related legal options and seek ways to remain in the US market.</p><p>4. The U.S. Court of Appeals rejected<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">Cisco</a>Adverse $2.7 billion in tort damages</p><p>On Thursday, local time, the U.S. Federal Court of Appeals made a ruling to revoke the lower court's compensation in support of Centripetal's patent infringement case against Cisco. The reason is that the judge Morgan who heard the case did not take recusal measures on the premise that his wife held Cisco shares. At that time, Morgan ruled that Cisco should pay Centripetal $1.9 billion in infringement compensation, plus patent licensing fees, and the overall compensation would exceed $2.7 billion.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245371220\" target=\"_blank\">Netflix cuts 300 jobs as revenue growth slows</a></p><p>According to local media reports, streaming media giant Netflix recently laid off 300 employees after laying off 150 employees last month, equivalent to about 3% of the company's employees. Subsequently, the company also confirmed this matter and said that these adjustments were made to ensure that costs matched the decline in revenue growth.</p><p>6. The U.S. Energy Secretary meets with executives of seven major oil companies</p><p>According to an announcement from the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Secretary Granholm held offline talks with CEOs and executives of seven major U.S. oil companies on Thursday and reminded these companies that they must come up with solutions to ensure safe and affordable fuel supply.</p><p>According to local media reports, Phillips 66, the fourth largest refiner in the United States (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSX\">Phillips 66</a>) Wilmington Refinery reported an unexpected fire on June 23.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"BK4555":"新能源车","BK1575":"同股不同权","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK1539":"汽车股","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4099":"汽车制造商","09868":"小鹏汽车-W","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK1119":"汽车制造商","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK1587":"次新股","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147384376","content_text":"摘要：①隔夜美股集体收高，热门中概股多数收涨；②美油创5月来最低收盘价；③美国两项PMI指标均跌至近两年低位；④桥水基金将做空欧股押注翻倍至105亿美元；⑤俄罗斯考虑减免粮食出口关税；⑥欧盟批准乌克兰和摩尔多瓦为欧盟候选国。海外市场1、隔夜美股集体收高 美国科技股多数走高美股收盘，三大股指集体收涨。截至收盘，道指涨0.64%，纳指涨1.62%，标普500指数涨0.95%。美国科技股收盘多数走高，其中苹果涨2.16%、特斯拉跌0.43%、亚马逊涨3.20%、谷歌A涨0.68%、奈飞涨1.58%、微软涨2.26%；经济重启概念多数走弱，美国航空跌0.92%、联合航空跌2.48%、皇家加勒比邮轮跌1.69%、波音跌2.33%。此外，互联网科技股、新能源汽车、消费和医药板块全数大涨。2、热门中概股多数收涨 新能源车板块领涨热门中概股周四多数收涨，新能源车板块领涨，小鹏汽车涨近8%，理想汽车涨6.6%，比亚迪ADR涨3.7%，蔚来涨超2%。其他中概股方面，拼多多收涨6.4%，百度涨2.4%，京东涨近0.8%，而网易跌近0.9%。叮咚买菜涨超7%，阿里巴巴、达达涨逾6%，电子烟第一股雾芯科技涨逾5%，B站、爱奇艺涨超3%，好未来、虎牙、迅雷涨超2%，腾讯粉单、满帮、金山云、知乎涨超1%，而周三刚结束三连跌的新东方收跌近9%，斗鱼跌逾4%，高途教育跌0.5%，网易有道跌近0.4%。3、欧洲主要股指集体收跌德国DAX指数跌1.72%欧股收盘，三大股指全线收跌。德国DAX指数跌1.72%，法国CAC指数跌0.56%，英国富时指数跌1%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.77%。4、美国WTI原油周四收跌1.8% 创5月10日以来最低收盘价美国原油期货价格周四录得连续第二个交易日下跌。纽约商品交易所8月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格下跌1.92美元，跌幅为1.81%，收于每桶104.27美元，创5月10日以来的最低收盘价。投资者担心美联储激进加息可能引发经济衰退，从而抑制燃料需求。5、纽约黄金期货收跌0.5% 连续第四日收跌纽约黄金期货价格周四录得连续第四个交易日下跌。纽约商品交易所8月交割的黄金期货价格下跌8.60美元，跌幅为0.5%，报收于每盎司1829.80美元。分析师指出，周四黄金价格下跌的主要原因是美元走强，而美元走强的原因是市场预期美联储可能会采取更加鹰派的货币政策。国际宏观1、美联储逆回购工具使用量创下2.285万亿美元的新纪录美联储隔夜逆回购工具的使用量周四再创新高。89个参与方动用2.285万亿美元，超过周三触及的前期高点2.259万亿美元。该工具支付隔夜利率0.80%；其利率跟随美联储政策而变化。2、鲍威尔重申“无条件”抗通胀承诺 称经济衰退并非不可避免尽管民主党人警告经济衰退风险，但美联储主席鲍威尔表示，联储抗通胀的承诺是“无条件的”。另一位美联储理事支持下个月再次升息75个基点。鲍威尔周四在众议院金融服务委员会作证时表示，“我们劳动力市场的过热有点不可持续，现在离通胀目标还很遥远。我们真的需要恢复物价稳定，让通胀率回落至2%，因为如果不这样做的话，将无法实现可持续的充分就业。”鲍威尔重申， 美联储仍然希望经济实现软着陆，尽管过程会比较艰难。3、美联储理事Bowman支持在7月加息75个基点美联储理事Michelle Bowman表示，她支持7月升息75个基点，之后再进行几次50基点的加息。Bowman在为马萨诸塞州银行家协会组织的一场活动准备的发言中说，“基于当前的通胀数据，我预计下次会议上加息75个基点是合适的，只要数据支持，在此后的几次会议上应该加息至少50个基点。根据经济的发展情况，之后可能还需要进一步提高联邦基金目标利率区间。”4、美国抵押贷款利率升至5.81% 创2008年以来最高水平美国的抵押贷款利率再次攀升，创14年来高位。房地美在周四发布的声明中称，30年期抵押贷款平均利率为5.81%，高于上周的5.78%。这个走势与10年期美债收益率的下滑背道而驰。此前一周该利率创下1987年以来最大周升幅。5、美国企业活动下降 通胀飙升导致工厂订单和生产萎缩美国企业活动6月向回落迈出了坚定一步，因快速走高的通胀降低了服务业需求，并导致工厂订单和生产径直萎缩。S&P Global周四发布的6月份美国综合产出指数初值下滑2.4点至51.2。虽然仍高于50，但这已是2020年7月以来的次低水平，当时经济正在竭力摆脱疫情引发的衰退。6、美国经济颓势尽显？两项PMI指标均跌至近两年低位附近金融分析公司标普全球（S&P Global）周四（6月23日）公布的最新数据报告显示，6月美国制造业和服务业采购经理指数（PMI）均出现了超于预期的跌幅。具体数据显示，美国6月制造业PMI初值录得52.4，刷新23个月低位，远低于市场预期的56和5月的57；制造业产出指数初值录得49.6，刷新24个月低位，远不及上月的55.2。6月商务活动指数（服务业PMI）初值录得51.6，显著低于市场预期的53.5和5月的53.4，刷新5个月低位，为2020年7月以来第三次跌至52以下。7、美国最高法院推翻纽约州一项枪支法律 将允许更多人合法持枪当地时间6月23日，美国最高法院在一项有关持枪权的重大裁决中推翻了纽约州一项限制性的枪支法律，将允许更多人在街道上合法持枪。法官们以6票赞成、3票反对的结果推翻了纽约州一项限制性的枪支法律，该法律要求人们证明自己特别需要携带枪支，才能获得在公共场合携带枪支的执照。法官们表示，这一要求违反了第二修正案“持有和携带武器”的权利。据悉，美国加利福尼亚州、夏威夷、马里兰州、马萨诸塞州、新泽西州和罗得岛州都有类似的法律，可能会因这项裁决而受到挑战。8、美国参议员致函拜登 称其应当考虑限制原油出口美国民主党参议员敦促总统拜登限制原油出口，从而保障美国及其盟友的的石油供应。参议员Jack Reed、Tammy Duckworth、Tammy Baldwin和Jeanne Shaheen在一封信函中表示，能源价格“严重飙升”给使用这一权力提供了理由。美国能源部长Jennifer Granholm定于今天与石油企业高管会面。9、美国会众议院特别调查委员会就国会大厦骚乱事件举行第五场公开听证会当地时间6月23日，美国国会众议院特别调查委员会就去年1月6日国会大厦骚乱事件的调查举行第五场公开听证会。特别调查委员会主席本尼·汤普森（Bennie Thompson）在听证会上指出，前总统特朗普希望司法部将他的选举谎言“合法化”，并对多名官员进行施压。白宫律师埃里克·赫施曼作证称，前司法部高级官员杰弗里·克拉克（Jeffrey Clark）曾表示想利用司法部权力协助特朗普的计划。10、奥密克戎BA.4/5来势汹汹：免疫逃逸能力最强变异株 重复感染根据美国疾控中心（CDC）近日发布的数据，奥密克戎新变异株BA.4和BA.5正在美国占据主导，已经占据了美国新增病例的34.9%。令人担忧的是，研究显示，BA.4/5是目前为止免疫逃逸能力最强的新冠病毒变异株，可以重复感染，能走肺，这些特征意味着它们可能导致更多的住院和死亡。11、桥水基金将做空欧股押注翻倍至105亿美元桥水对欧洲股票的做空押注增加一倍，至105亿美元，在过去一周几乎翻了一番，对该地区股市的看空力度达到两年来的最高水平。根据汇编数据，这家全球最大的对冲基金公司披露了对28家公司的空头押注，其中包括对阿斯麦、道达尔、赛诺菲和思爱普的个人押注超过5亿美元。上周数据显示，桥水已成为欧洲股市的最大空头，大举押注逾57亿美元做空欧股。基于监管文件汇总的数据显示，这些投资中包括对半导体制造商阿斯麦10亿美元的空头押注以及对道达尔约7.52亿美元的空头押注。该公司本月做空的欧洲公司数量已增至18家。12、俄罗斯考虑减免粮食出口关税据国际文传电讯社，俄罗斯可能会逐步改用卢布征收粮食关税，并考虑减免粮食出口关税。13、欧洲央行官员Kazimir：欧洲央行利率可能在一年内达到1.5%-2%欧洲央行管理委员会成员，担任斯洛伐克央行行长的Peter Kazimir表示，欧洲央行可能在未来12个月内将利率提高超过200个基点，使利率从现在开始的一年后达到1.5%-2%。Kazimir预计7月加息25个基点，然后9月可能加息50个基点。“这一切都取决于即将到来的数据。”Kazimir表示，一些欧元区国家可能陷入“技术性衰退”。14、德国总理朔尔茨：欧盟必须做好扩张的准备当地时间周四（6月23日），德国总理朔尔茨表示，鉴于乌克兰和摩尔多瓦将获得候选国身份，欧盟应该为扩大做好准备。朔尔茨强调，为了让更大的联盟发挥作用，更多的决定应该采取多数表决通过的原则，而不是要求全体一致通过。目前，在关键决策上欧盟采取的是一致通过原则，这意味着欧盟27个成员国均有权一票否决自己不认可的政策。此前，由于匈牙利等国的反对，欧盟拖延了约一个月时间，才正式推出针对俄罗斯的第六轮制裁。15、通胀达到21年高位 墨西哥央行宣布加息75基点在数据显示6月初物价同比升幅达到21年高位后，墨西哥央行周四加快了升息步伐。墨西哥央行将关键利率上调75个基点至7.75%，符合接受调查的所有27位经济学家的预期。此次加息幅度也是该行2008年采用通胀目标制以来最大，并且与美联储上周的加息幅度相同。墨西哥央行通常倾向于效仿美联储的利率决定，以避免资本突然外流。俄乌局势1、欧盟批准乌克兰和摩尔多瓦为欧盟候选国欧洲理事会主席米歇尔当地时间23日宣布，当天的欧盟峰会同意批准乌克兰和摩尔多瓦为欧盟候选国，格鲁吉亚为潜在候选国。米歇尔称这是一个历史性的时刻，标志着乌克兰向欧盟迈出了关键一步。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩表示，这一决定不仅加强了乌克兰、摩尔多瓦和格鲁吉亚三国的力量，同时也加强了欧盟的实力。欧盟峰会的这项决定是应欧盟委员会本月17日的建议作出的。2、泽连斯基：乌获得欧盟候选国地位 是乌克兰与欧盟关系独一无二的历史时刻当地时间23日，乌克兰总统泽连斯基就乌克兰获得欧盟候选国地位在官方社交媒体上发文称，这是乌克兰与欧盟关系中独一无二的历史时刻，并对欧盟领导人的支持表示感谢。3、美官员：美国将再向乌克兰提供4.5亿美元的军事援助据美联社当地时间6月23日报道，美国官员表示，美国将再向乌克兰提供4.5亿美元的军事援助，包括“海马斯”高机动性多管火箭系统、弹药和其他物资。据悉，美国政府曾在15日宣布向乌克兰额外提供10亿美元的军事援助。4、德国警告俄罗斯或引发能源市场崩溃德国警告说，俄罗斯削减欧洲天然气供应可能引发能源市场崩溃，影响力不亚于当年雷曼兄弟引爆金融危机。在将德国天然气风险级别上调至第二高的“警戒”水平后，经济部长Robert Habeck表示，由于被迫以高价补平损失的气量，能源供应商的亏损正在日益增加，对当地公用事业行业及其用户（包括消费者和企业）可能存在溢出风险。Habeck在柏林召开的新闻发布会上表示，“如果亏损大到以他们不能承受，那么整个市场就会在某个时刻崩塌。这是能源系统的雷曼效应。”5、受对俄制裁影响 日本建筑木材供应难由于俄乌冲突持续造成国际产业链以及供应链的混乱，给世界多国都带来越来越多的影响。日本因为地震多发，建筑很多都采用木质结构，因而对木材的需求量非常大。俄乌冲突发生后，日本无法再大量进口俄罗斯木材，这给日本木材的供应造成了很大影响。公司新闻1、耐克将全面退出俄罗斯市场美国运动品牌耐克(Nike)当地时间周四在一份电子邮件声明中称，在俄罗斯业务暂停三个月后，该品牌将全面退出俄罗斯市场。分析指出，对耐克来说，这一举措在很大程度上是象征性的，不会产生什么实质性影响。来自乌克兰和俄罗斯两国的收入加起来也不到耐克总收入的1%。2、英特尔称国会延误恐导致俄亥俄工厂计划缩水在周四发送给媒体的声明中，英特尔明确表示：“不幸的是，美国国会的CHIPS芯片法案进展缓慢，公司也不知道到底什么时候能有结果。现在是国会采取行动的时候了，这样英特尔才能以长期以来为俄亥俄州以及其他项目设想的速度和规模向前推进。”根据当地媒体报道，英特尔俄亥俄工厂的开工仪式原定于7月22日举行，但公司周三向俄亥俄州州长Mike DeWine的办公室和俄亥俄州国会代表团成员通报将会推迟破土的时间。3、电子烟制造商遭重创！FDA禁止JUUL产品进入美国市场美国FDA周四宣布，将禁止Juul电子烟在美国市场进行销售或分销，监管称“缺乏足够证据”显示该产品的销售对于公共健康是合适的。Juul首席执行官Joe Murillo回应称不认可FDA的判断，将穷尽监管和相关法律的选项，寻求继续留在美国市场的方法。4、美国上诉法院驳回对思科不利的27亿美元侵权赔偿当地时间周四，美国联邦上诉法院作出判决，撤销下级法院支持Centripetal控告思科专利侵权案的赔偿，原因是审理此案的法官摩根在明知自己妻子持有思科股票的前提下，并没有采取回避措施。当时摩根判决思科向Centripetal支付19亿美元的侵权赔偿，加上专利授权许可费，整体赔偿金将超过27亿美元。5、营收增速放缓，Netflix裁员300人据当地媒体报道，流媒体巨头奈飞继上个月裁员150人后，又在近期裁掉了300名员工，约等于整个公司3%的雇员。随后公司也确认了这一事项，并表示作出这些调整是为了确保成本与营收增速下滑相匹配。6、美国能源部长会见七大油企高管根据美国能源部的公告，周四能源部长格兰霍姆与七家美国主要油企的CEO和高管举行了线下会谈，并提醒这些企业必须拿出解决方案确保安全、可负担的燃油供应。根据当地媒体报道，美国第四大炼油商菲利普斯66公司（Phillips 66）威尔明顿炼油厂6月23日报告发生意外火灾。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09868":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"EVS.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":918,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9043498984,"gmtCreate":1655948971248,"gmtModify":1676535738467,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9043498984","repostId":"2245324562","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1015,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9043948713,"gmtCreate":1655865103132,"gmtModify":1676535721669,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9043948713","repostId":"1122597144","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9049883802,"gmtCreate":1655774469807,"gmtModify":1676535702333,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9049883802","repostId":"689546098","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":689546098,"gmtCreate":1655767800000,"gmtModify":1676533246228,"author":{"id":"3524105778590481","authorId":"3524105778590481","name":"面包财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/840a0ca857820031307544fe7310d6af","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3524105778590481","idStr":"3524105778590481"},"themes":[],"title":"【基金觀察】中金基金：近一年10只產品被清算，是否會觸發監管部門“審慎性措施”？","htmlText":"編者按： 證監會此前發佈題爲《優化公募基金註冊機制 促進行業高質量發展》的機構監管情況通報，突出扶優限劣的監管導向，進一步優化基金註冊機制。 《通報》提出要對公募基金“產品開發能力弱，迷你基金、基金清盤、募集失敗、已批未募產品變更註冊數量較多”等問題加強監管。敦促基金管理人提升投研核心能力、合規風控能力、充分保護投資者合法權益。 麪包財經近期將對標相關政策，深入研究一些典型公募基金的合規與運營案例。 對基金清算數據統計發現，近一年來九泰基金、中金基金所清算的基金產品數量分別爲11只、10只，在行業中居前。九泰基金此前已經做了初步研究，本篇主要分析中金基金。 中金基金的母公司爲中金公司，股東背景雄厚，爲何會出現多隻產品清算、清盤的情況？ 圖1：近一年基金公司清算產品數量 中金基金旗下的中金泰順12個月、中金瑞泰、中金瑞康等多隻主動權益類基金產品成立僅1年多，甚至不足1年的時間便清算，原因均是存續期內基金資產規模不滿足基金合同中的約定，從而觸發合同終止條款。 中金基金多隻清算的基金產品機構投資者持有比例普遍較高，較高的份額集中度疊加機構投資者的集中鉅額贖回，成中金基金多隻產品遭清算的原因之一。 此外，中金基金旗下6只存續基金規模不足6000萬元，規模“迷你”，也在一定程度上面臨清算壓力。 &nbsp;高開低走：部分產品封閉期結束後規模急劇萎縮&nbsp; 中金基金成立於2014年，由中國國際金融股份有限公司發起設立並100%持股。截至2022年一季度末，中金基金在管基金產品逾30只，管理規模近900億元。 近一年來（截至2022年6月15日，下同），中金基金旗下有10只產品遭清算。從投資類型來看，這些被清算的基金產品類型包括被動指數型基金、偏股混合型基金、靈活配置型基金等。從清算原因上看，均是存續期內基金資產規模不滿足基金合同中的約定，從而觸發合同終止條款。 中金泰順12個月（","listText":"編者按： 證監會此前發佈題爲《優化公募基金註冊機制 促進行業高質量發展》的機構監管情況通報，突出扶優限劣的監管導向，進一步優化基金註冊機制。 《通報》提出要對公募基金“產品開發能力弱，迷你基金、基金清盤、募集失敗、已批未募產品變更註冊數量較多”等問題加強監管。敦促基金管理人提升投研核心能力、合規風控能力、充分保護投資者合法權益。 麪包財經近期將對標相關政策，深入研究一些典型公募基金的合規與運營案例。 對基金清算數據統計發現，近一年來九泰基金、中金基金所清算的基金產品數量分別爲11只、10只，在行業中居前。九泰基金此前已經做了初步研究，本篇主要分析中金基金。 中金基金的母公司爲中金公司，股東背景雄厚，爲何會出現多隻產品清算、清盤的情況？ 圖1：近一年基金公司清算產品數量 中金基金旗下的中金泰順12個月、中金瑞泰、中金瑞康等多隻主動權益類基金產品成立僅1年多，甚至不足1年的時間便清算，原因均是存續期內基金資產規模不滿足基金合同中的約定，從而觸發合同終止條款。 中金基金多隻清算的基金產品機構投資者持有比例普遍較高，較高的份額集中度疊加機構投資者的集中鉅額贖回，成中金基金多隻產品遭清算的原因之一。 此外，中金基金旗下6只存續基金規模不足6000萬元，規模“迷你”，也在一定程度上面臨清算壓力。 &nbsp;高開低走：部分產品封閉期結束後規模急劇萎縮&nbsp; 中金基金成立於2014年，由中國國際金融股份有限公司發起設立並100%持股。截至2022年一季度末，中金基金在管基金產品逾30只，管理規模近900億元。 近一年來（截至2022年6月15日，下同），中金基金旗下有10只產品遭清算。從投資類型來看，這些被清算的基金產品類型包括被動指數型基金、偏股混合型基金、靈活配置型基金等。從清算原因上看，均是存續期內基金資產規模不滿足基金合同中的約定，從而觸發合同終止條款。 中金泰順12個月（","text":"編者按： 證監會此前發佈題爲《優化公募基金註冊機制 促進行業高質量發展》的機構監管情況通報，突出扶優限劣的監管導向，進一步優化基金註冊機制。 《通報》提出要對公募基金“產品開發能力弱，迷你基金、基金清盤、募集失敗、已批未募產品變更註冊數量較多”等問題加強監管。敦促基金管理人提升投研核心能力、合規風控能力、充分保護投資者合法權益。 麪包財經近期將對標相關政策，深入研究一些典型公募基金的合規與運營案例。 對基金清算數據統計發現，近一年來九泰基金、中金基金所清算的基金產品數量分別爲11只、10只，在行業中居前。九泰基金此前已經做了初步研究，本篇主要分析中金基金。 中金基金的母公司爲中金公司，股東背景雄厚，爲何會出現多隻產品清算、清盤的情況？ 圖1：近一年基金公司清算產品數量 中金基金旗下的中金泰順12個月、中金瑞泰、中金瑞康等多隻主動權益類基金產品成立僅1年多，甚至不足1年的時間便清算，原因均是存續期內基金資產規模不滿足基金合同中的約定，從而觸發合同終止條款。 中金基金多隻清算的基金產品機構投資者持有比例普遍較高，較高的份額集中度疊加機構投資者的集中鉅額贖回，成中金基金多隻產品遭清算的原因之一。 此外，中金基金旗下6只存續基金規模不足6000萬元，規模“迷你”，也在一定程度上面臨清算壓力。 高開低走：部分產品封閉期結束後規模急劇萎縮 中金基金成立於2014年，由中國國際金融股份有限公司發起設立並100%持股。截至2022年一季度末，中金基金在管基金產品逾30只，管理規模近900億元。 近一年來（截至2022年6月15日，下同），中金基金旗下有10只產品遭清算。從投資類型來看，這些被清算的基金產品類型包括被動指數型基金、偏股混合型基金、靈活配置型基金等。從清算原因上看，均是存續期內基金資產規模不滿足基金合同中的約定，從而觸發合同終止條款。 中金泰順12個月（","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a66977bcf5114a3f83347d8db17ced70"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c09e6fcb4b67499e9ad21521c902dedc"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0416b954ee5c4e52bd9dfe6a7fd0ec54"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/689546098","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9041887135,"gmtCreate":1656033422127,"gmtModify":1676535754834,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9041887135","repostId":"1147384376","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147384376","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1656028464,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147384376?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-24 07:54","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | U.S. stocks rebounded thrillingly! Zhonggai is bright, XPeng vehicles rose nearly 8%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147384376","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①隔夜美股集体收高，热门中概股多数收涨；②美油创5月来最低收盘价；③美国两项PMI指标均跌至近两年低位；④桥水基金将做空欧股押注翻倍至105亿美元；⑤俄罗斯考虑减免粮食出口关税；⑥欧盟批准乌克兰","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① U.S. stocks collectively closed higher overnight, and most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher; ② U.S. oil hit its lowest closing price since May; ③ Both PMI indicators in the United States fell to nearly two-year lows; ④ Bridgewater Fund doubled its bet on short European stocks to US $10.5 billion; ⑤ Russia considers reducing or exempting grain export tariffs; ⑥ The EU approved Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries. Overseas Market</p><p>1. U.S. stocks collectively closed higher overnight, and most U.S. technology stocks rose</p><p>U.S. stocks closed, and the three major stock indexes collectively closed higher. As of the close, the Dow rose 0.64%, the Nasdaq rose 1.62%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.95%.</p><p>U.S. tech stocks closed mostly higher, with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Up 2.16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Down 0.43%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Up 3.20%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google A</a>Up 0.68%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>Up 1.58%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Up 2.26%; The concept of economic restart has mostly weakened,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>Fell 0.92%, United Airlines fell 2.48%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">Royal Caribbean Cruises</a>Down 1.69%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Fell 2.33%. In addition, Internet technology stocks, new energy vehicles, consumer and pharmaceutical sectors all rose sharply.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher, led by the new energy vehicle sector</p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher on Thursday, led by the new energy vehicle sector.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Rose nearly 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up 6.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>ADR rose 3.7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Up more than 2%.</p><p>For other Chinese concept stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Closed up 6.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 2.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up nearly 0.8%, while<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>It fell nearly 0.9%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">Dingdong Maicai</a>Rose more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>, Dada rose more than 6%, Wuxin Technology, the first e-cigarette stock, rose more than 5%, Bilibili,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">Tiger Tooth</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XNET\">Thunder</a>Up more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Powder sheet,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">Kingsoft Cloud</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>Rose more than 1%, and just ended a three-game losing streak on Wednesday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Closed down nearly 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Betta fish</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>Education fell 0.5%, NetEase<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAO\">Youdao</a>It fell nearly 0.4%.</p><p>3. Major European stock indexes collectively closed down, the German DAX index fell 1.72%</p><p>European stocks closed, and the three major stock indexes closed down across the board. Germany's DAX index fell 1.72%, France's CAC index fell 0.56%, Britain's FTSE index fell 1%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell 0.77%.</p><p>4. U.S. WTI crude oil closed down 1.8% on Thursday, the lowest closing price since May 10</p><p>U.S. crude oil futures prices fell for the second consecutive session on Thursday. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.92, or 1.81%, to close at $104.27 a barrel, the lowest closing price since May 10. Investors are worried that aggressive rate hike by the Federal Reserve could trigger a recession, which could dampen fuel demand.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 0.5%, closing down for the fourth consecutive day</p><p>New York gold futures prices fell for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $8.60, or 0.5%, to close at $1,829.80 an ounce. Analysts pointed out that the main reason for the decline in gold prices on Thursday was the strengthening of the US dollar, which was due to market expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more hawkish monetary policy.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. The use of the Fed's reverse repurchase facility hits a new record of US $2.285 trillion</p><p>The use of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase facility hit a new high on Thursday. 89 participants spent $2.285 trillion, exceeding the previous high of $2.259 trillion hit on Wednesday. The instrument pays an overnight rate of 0.80%; Its interest rates change in line with Fed policy.</p><p>2. Powell reiterates \"unconditional\" commitment to fighting inflation, saying recession is not inevitable</p><p>While Democrats warned of recession risks, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed's commitment to fighting inflation was \"unconditional.\" Another Fed governor supports another 75 basis point interest rate hike next month. In testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday, Powell said, \"The overheating of our labor market is a bit unsustainable, and we are still far from the inflation target right now. We really need to restore price stability and bring inflation back to 2%, because if we don't do so, we won't achieve sustainable full employment.\" Powell reiterated that the Fed still wants a soft landing for the economy, although the process will be more difficult.</p><p>3. Fed Governor Bowman supports a 75 basis point rate hike in July</p><p>Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said she supports a 75 basis point rate hike in July, followed by several 50 basis point rate hike. In remarks prepared for an event organized by the Massachusetts Bankers Association, Bowman said, \"Based on the current inflation data, I expect a rate hike of 75 basis points at the next meeting to be appropriate, as long as the data supports it, in the next few meetings. rate hike should be at least 50 basis points. Depending on how the economy develops, further increases in the federal funds target rate range may need to be needed afterwards.\"</p><p>4. U.S. mortgage rates rose to 5.81%, the highest level since 2008</p><p>Mortgage rates in the United States are climbing again to a 14-year high. In a statement released Thursday, Freddie Mac said the average 30-year mortgage rate was 5.81%, up from 5.78% last week. This trend runs counter to the decline in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields. The previous week, the interest rate recorded its biggest weekly increase since 1987.</p><p>5. Falling U.S. corporate activity, soaring inflation causes factory orders and production to shrink</p><p>U.S. business activity took a firm step back in June, as rapidly rising inflation reduced demand for services and caused factory orders and production to shrink directly. The preliminary value of the U.S. composite output index for June released by S&P Global on Thursday slipped 2.4 points to 51.2. While still above 50, this is the second-lowest level since July 2020, when the economy was struggling to emerge from the pandemic-induced recession.</p><p>6. Is the U.S. economy in full swing? Both PMI indicators fell near two-year lows</p><p>Financial Analytics Company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>The latest data report released by (S&P Global) on Thursday (June 23rd) showed that the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of manufacturing and service industries in the United States both experienced a larger-than-expected decline in June. Specific data shows that the initial value of U.S. manufacturing PMI in June recorded 52.4, a new 23-month low, far lower than market expectations of 56 and 57 in May. The initial value of the manufacturing output index recorded 49.6, a 24-month low, far lower than last month's 55.2. The initial value of the business activity index (service PMI) in June recorded 51.6, significantly lower than market expectations of 53.5 and 53.4 in May, setting a new five-month low and falling below 52 for the third time since July 2020.</p><p>7. The U.S. Supreme Court overturns a New York gun law that will allow more people to legally hold guns</p><p>On June 23rd, local time, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a restrictive gun law in New York in a major ruling on gun rights, which will allow more people to legally hold guns on the streets. The justices voted 6-3 to overturn a restrictive New York gun law that required people to prove they specifically need to carry firearms in order to get a license to carry them in public. The justices said the requirement violated the Second Amendment right to \"keep and bear weapons.\" It is reported that California, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Rhode Island all have similar laws and may be challenged by this ruling.</p><p>8. U.S. senators sent a letter to Biden saying that he should consider restricting crude oil exports</p><p>U.S. Democratic senators urged President Joe Biden to limit crude oil exports to ensure oil supplies to the United States and its allies. In a letter, Senators Jack Reed, Tammy Duckworth, Tammy Baldwin and Jeanne Shaheen said the \"severe spike\" in energy prices gave reason to use this power.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">US Energy</a>Minister Jennifer Granholm is scheduled to meet with oil business executives today.</p><p>9. The U.S. House of Representatives Special Investigation Committee held its fifth public hearing on the Capitol riot</p><p>On June 23, local time, the Special Investigation Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives held its fifth public hearing on the investigation of the Capitol riot on January 6 last year. Bennie Thompson, chairman of the special investigation committee, pointed out at the hearing that former President Trump wanted the Justice Department to \"legalize\" his election lies and put pressure on multiple officials. White House lawyer Eric Hirschman testified that Jeffrey Clark, a former senior Justice Department official, had indicated that he wanted to use Justice Department power to assist Trump's plan.</p><p>10. Omicron BA.4/5 is coming fiercely: repeated infection of the mutant strain with the strongest immune escape ability</p><p>According to data recently released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Omicron's new mutant strains BA.4 and BA.5 are dominating the United States, accounting for 34.9% of new cases in the United States. Worryingly, research shows that BA.4/5 is by far the Novel Coronavirus variant with the strongest immune escape ability. It can reinfect and walk through the lungs. These characteristics mean that they may lead to more hospitalizations and deaths.</p><p>11. Bridgewater Fund will double its bet on shorting European stocks to US $10.5 billion</p><p>Bridgewater doubled its short bets on European stocks to $10.5 billion, nearly doubling in the past week, and its bearish strength on stocks in the region reached its highest level in two years. The world's largest hedge fund firm disclosed short bets on 28 companies, including on<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0O59.UK\">Sanofi</a>And SAP's personal bets exceed $500 million.</p><p>Last week's data showed that Bridgewater has become the largest short seller in European stock markets, betting more than $5.7 billion against European stocks. The investments include a $1 billion short bet on semiconductor maker ASML and a $1 billion short bet on semiconductor maker ASML, according to data compiled based on regulatory filings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOT\">Total</a>About $752 million in short bets. The number of European companies it has shorted this month has increased to 18.</p><p>12. Russia considers reducing or exempting grain export tariffs</p><p>According to the Interfax news agency, Russia may gradually switch to rubles to levy grain tariffs and consider reducing or exempting grain export tariffs.</p><p>13. ECB official Kazimir: ECB interest rates may reach 1.5%-2% within a year</p><p>Peter Kazimir, a member of the ECB's Governing Council and governor of the Slovakian central bank, said that the ECB may raise interest rates by more than 200 basis points in the next 12 months, bringing interest rates to 1.5%-2% a year from now. Kazimir expects 25 basis points in rate hike in July and then possibly 50 basis points in rate hike in September. \"It all depends on upcoming data.\" Kazimir said some eurozone countries could fall into a \"technical recession\".</p><p>14. German Chancellor Scholz: The EU must be prepared for expansion</p><p>On Thursday (June 23) local time, German Chancellor Scholz said that given that Ukraine and Moldova will obtain candidate country status, the EU should prepare for enlargement. Scholz stressed that in order for a larger alliance to work, more decisions should be adopted on the principle of majority vote instead of requiring unanimity. At present, the EU adopts the principle of unanimous adoption in key decisions, which means that all 27 EU member states have the right to veto policies that they do not approve of with one vote. Previously, due to the opposition of Hungary and other countries, the EU delayed about a month before officially launching the sixth round of sanctions against Russia.</p><p>15. Inflation reaches 21-year high, Mexican central bank announces a rate hike of 75 basis points</p><p>The central bank of Mexico accelerated the pace of raising interest rates on Thursday after data showed that prices rose year-on-year in early June to a 21-year high. Mexico's central bank raised its key interest rate by 75 basis points to 7.75%, in line with expectations of all 27 economists surveyed. The rate hike is also the largest since the bank adopted inflation targeting in 2008, and is the same as the Federal Reserve's rate hike last week. Mexico's central bank generally tends to emulate the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions to avoid sudden capital outflows.</p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine</p><p>1. The EU approves Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries</p><p>European Council President Michel announced on the 23rd local time that the EU summit that day agreed to approve Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries and Georgia as a potential candidate country. Michel called this a historic moment and marked a crucial step for Ukraine towards the EU. European Commission President von der Leyen said that this decision not only strengthens the strength of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, but also the strength of the European Union. The decision of the EU summit was made at the proposal of the European Commission on the 17th of this month.</p><p>2. Zelensky: Ukraine's obtaining EU candidate status is a unique historical moment in Ukraine's relations with the EU</p><p>On the 23rd local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky posted on official social media that Ukraine has obtained EU candidate status, saying that this is a unique historical moment in Ukraine's relations with the EU, and expressed his gratitude to EU leaders for their support.</p><p>3. U.S. official: The United States will provide another $450 million in military assistance to Ukraine</p><p>According to an Associated Press report on June 23, local time, U.S. officials stated that the United States will provide Ukraine with an additional $450 million in military assistance, including the \"Haimas\" high-mobility multiple rocket system, ammunition and other supplies. It is reported that the U.S. government announced on the 15th that it would provide an additional $1 billion in military assistance to Ukraine.</p><p>4. Germany warns Russia that it may trigger energy market collapse</p><p>Germany warned that Russia's reduction of natural gas supplies to Europe could trigger a collapse in the energy market, which was as influential as the financial crisis triggered by Lehman Brothers. After raising Germany's natural gas risk level to the second highest \"alert\" level, Economy Minister Robert Habeck said that losses for energy suppliers are increasing day by day as they are forced to make up for lost gas at high prices, which has a negative impact on the local utility industry. There may be spillover risks for its users, including consumers and businesses. Habeck said at a press conference in Berlin, \"If the losses are too big for them to bear, then the entire market will collapse at some point. This is the Lehman effect of the energy system.\"</p><p>5. Affected by sanctions against Russia, Japan's construction timber supply is difficult</p><p>As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to cause chaos in the international industrial chain and supply chain, it has brought more and more impact to many countries around the world. Because of the frequent earthquakes in Japan, many buildings are made of wood, so the demand for wood is very large. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Japan was no longer able to import large amounts of Russian timber, which had a great impact on the supply of Japanese timber.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245722181\" target=\"_blank\">Nike will fully withdraw from the Russian market</a></p><p>American sports brand Nike said in an emailed statement on Thursday local time that it will completely withdraw from the Russian market after three months of suspension of Russian operations. The analysis pointed out that for Nike, this move is largely symbolic and will have little substantial impact. The combined revenue from Ukraine and Russia is less than 1% of Nike's total revenue.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Says congressional delays threaten to shrink Ohio plant plans</p><p>In a statement sent to the media on Thursday, Intel made it clear: \"Unfortunately, the CHIPS chip bill in the U.S. Congress is progressing slowly, and the company doesn't know exactly when there will be results. Now is the time for Congress to take action so that Intel can move forward at the speed and scale long envisioned for Ohio and other projects.\"</p><p>According to local media reports, the groundbreaking ceremony for Intel's Ohio factory was originally scheduled to be held on July 22, but the company informed Ohio Governor Mike DeWine's office and members of the Ohio congressional delegation on Wednesday that it would postpone the groundbreaking time.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245222074\" target=\"_blank\">E-cigarette manufacturers hit hard! FDA bans JUUL products from entering the US market</a></p><p>The U.S. FDA announced on Thursday that it will ban Juul e-cigarettes from being sold or distributed in the U.S. market, with regulators saying it lacks \"sufficient evidence\" to show that the sale of the product is appropriate for public health. Juul CEO Joe Murillo responded that he did not approve of the FDA's judgment and would exhaust regulatory and related legal options and seek ways to remain in the US market.</p><p>4. The U.S. Court of Appeals rejected<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">Cisco</a>Adverse $2.7 billion in tort damages</p><p>On Thursday, local time, the U.S. Federal Court of Appeals made a ruling to revoke the lower court's compensation in support of Centripetal's patent infringement case against Cisco. The reason is that the judge Morgan who heard the case did not take recusal measures on the premise that his wife held Cisco shares. At that time, Morgan ruled that Cisco should pay Centripetal $1.9 billion in infringement compensation, plus patent licensing fees, and the overall compensation would exceed $2.7 billion.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245371220\" target=\"_blank\">Netflix cuts 300 jobs as revenue growth slows</a></p><p>According to local media reports, streaming media giant Netflix recently laid off 300 employees after laying off 150 employees last month, equivalent to about 3% of the company's employees. Subsequently, the company also confirmed this matter and said that these adjustments were made to ensure that costs matched the decline in revenue growth.</p><p>6. The U.S. Energy Secretary meets with executives of seven major oil companies</p><p>According to an announcement from the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Secretary Granholm held offline talks with CEOs and executives of seven major U.S. oil companies on Thursday and reminded these companies that they must come up with solutions to ensure safe and affordable fuel supply.</p><p>According to local media reports, Phillips 66, the fourth largest refiner in the United States (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSX\">Phillips 66</a>) Wilmington Refinery reported an unexpected fire on June 23.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | U.S. stocks rebounded thrillingly! Zhonggai is bright, XPeng vehicles rose nearly 8%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | U.S. stocks rebounded thrillingly! Zhonggai is bright, XPeng vehicles rose nearly 8%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-24 07:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① U.S. stocks collectively closed higher overnight, and most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher; ② U.S. oil hit its lowest closing price since May; ③ Both PMI indicators in the United States fell to nearly two-year lows; ④ Bridgewater Fund doubled its bet on short European stocks to US $10.5 billion; ⑤ Russia considers reducing or exempting grain export tariffs; ⑥ The EU approved Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries. Overseas Market</p><p>1. U.S. stocks collectively closed higher overnight, and most U.S. technology stocks rose</p><p>U.S. stocks closed, and the three major stock indexes collectively closed higher. As of the close, the Dow rose 0.64%, the Nasdaq rose 1.62%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.95%.</p><p>U.S. tech stocks closed mostly higher, with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Up 2.16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Down 0.43%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Up 3.20%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google A</a>Up 0.68%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>Up 1.58%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Up 2.26%; The concept of economic restart has mostly weakened,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>Fell 0.92%, United Airlines fell 2.48%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">Royal Caribbean Cruises</a>Down 1.69%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Fell 2.33%. In addition, Internet technology stocks, new energy vehicles, consumer and pharmaceutical sectors all rose sharply.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher, led by the new energy vehicle sector</p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher on Thursday, led by the new energy vehicle sector.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Rose nearly 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up 6.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>ADR rose 3.7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Up more than 2%.</p><p>For other Chinese concept stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Closed up 6.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 2.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up nearly 0.8%, while<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>It fell nearly 0.9%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">Dingdong Maicai</a>Rose more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>, Dada rose more than 6%, Wuxin Technology, the first e-cigarette stock, rose more than 5%, Bilibili,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">Tiger Tooth</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XNET\">Thunder</a>Up more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Powder sheet,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">Kingsoft Cloud</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>Rose more than 1%, and just ended a three-game losing streak on Wednesday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Closed down nearly 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Betta fish</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>Education fell 0.5%, NetEase<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAO\">Youdao</a>It fell nearly 0.4%.</p><p>3. Major European stock indexes collectively closed down, the German DAX index fell 1.72%</p><p>European stocks closed, and the three major stock indexes closed down across the board. Germany's DAX index fell 1.72%, France's CAC index fell 0.56%, Britain's FTSE index fell 1%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell 0.77%.</p><p>4. U.S. WTI crude oil closed down 1.8% on Thursday, the lowest closing price since May 10</p><p>U.S. crude oil futures prices fell for the second consecutive session on Thursday. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.92, or 1.81%, to close at $104.27 a barrel, the lowest closing price since May 10. Investors are worried that aggressive rate hike by the Federal Reserve could trigger a recession, which could dampen fuel demand.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 0.5%, closing down for the fourth consecutive day</p><p>New York gold futures prices fell for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $8.60, or 0.5%, to close at $1,829.80 an ounce. Analysts pointed out that the main reason for the decline in gold prices on Thursday was the strengthening of the US dollar, which was due to market expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more hawkish monetary policy.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. The use of the Fed's reverse repurchase facility hits a new record of US $2.285 trillion</p><p>The use of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase facility hit a new high on Thursday. 89 participants spent $2.285 trillion, exceeding the previous high of $2.259 trillion hit on Wednesday. The instrument pays an overnight rate of 0.80%; Its interest rates change in line with Fed policy.</p><p>2. Powell reiterates \"unconditional\" commitment to fighting inflation, saying recession is not inevitable</p><p>While Democrats warned of recession risks, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed's commitment to fighting inflation was \"unconditional.\" Another Fed governor supports another 75 basis point interest rate hike next month. In testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday, Powell said, \"The overheating of our labor market is a bit unsustainable, and we are still far from the inflation target right now. We really need to restore price stability and bring inflation back to 2%, because if we don't do so, we won't achieve sustainable full employment.\" Powell reiterated that the Fed still wants a soft landing for the economy, although the process will be more difficult.</p><p>3. Fed Governor Bowman supports a 75 basis point rate hike in July</p><p>Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said she supports a 75 basis point rate hike in July, followed by several 50 basis point rate hike. In remarks prepared for an event organized by the Massachusetts Bankers Association, Bowman said, \"Based on the current inflation data, I expect a rate hike of 75 basis points at the next meeting to be appropriate, as long as the data supports it, in the next few meetings. rate hike should be at least 50 basis points. Depending on how the economy develops, further increases in the federal funds target rate range may need to be needed afterwards.\"</p><p>4. U.S. mortgage rates rose to 5.81%, the highest level since 2008</p><p>Mortgage rates in the United States are climbing again to a 14-year high. In a statement released Thursday, Freddie Mac said the average 30-year mortgage rate was 5.81%, up from 5.78% last week. This trend runs counter to the decline in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields. The previous week, the interest rate recorded its biggest weekly increase since 1987.</p><p>5. Falling U.S. corporate activity, soaring inflation causes factory orders and production to shrink</p><p>U.S. business activity took a firm step back in June, as rapidly rising inflation reduced demand for services and caused factory orders and production to shrink directly. The preliminary value of the U.S. composite output index for June released by S&P Global on Thursday slipped 2.4 points to 51.2. While still above 50, this is the second-lowest level since July 2020, when the economy was struggling to emerge from the pandemic-induced recession.</p><p>6. Is the U.S. economy in full swing? Both PMI indicators fell near two-year lows</p><p>Financial Analytics Company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>The latest data report released by (S&P Global) on Thursday (June 23rd) showed that the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of manufacturing and service industries in the United States both experienced a larger-than-expected decline in June. Specific data shows that the initial value of U.S. manufacturing PMI in June recorded 52.4, a new 23-month low, far lower than market expectations of 56 and 57 in May. The initial value of the manufacturing output index recorded 49.6, a 24-month low, far lower than last month's 55.2. The initial value of the business activity index (service PMI) in June recorded 51.6, significantly lower than market expectations of 53.5 and 53.4 in May, setting a new five-month low and falling below 52 for the third time since July 2020.</p><p>7. The U.S. Supreme Court overturns a New York gun law that will allow more people to legally hold guns</p><p>On June 23rd, local time, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a restrictive gun law in New York in a major ruling on gun rights, which will allow more people to legally hold guns on the streets. The justices voted 6-3 to overturn a restrictive New York gun law that required people to prove they specifically need to carry firearms in order to get a license to carry them in public. The justices said the requirement violated the Second Amendment right to \"keep and bear weapons.\" It is reported that California, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Rhode Island all have similar laws and may be challenged by this ruling.</p><p>8. U.S. senators sent a letter to Biden saying that he should consider restricting crude oil exports</p><p>U.S. Democratic senators urged President Joe Biden to limit crude oil exports to ensure oil supplies to the United States and its allies. In a letter, Senators Jack Reed, Tammy Duckworth, Tammy Baldwin and Jeanne Shaheen said the \"severe spike\" in energy prices gave reason to use this power.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">US Energy</a>Minister Jennifer Granholm is scheduled to meet with oil business executives today.</p><p>9. The U.S. House of Representatives Special Investigation Committee held its fifth public hearing on the Capitol riot</p><p>On June 23, local time, the Special Investigation Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives held its fifth public hearing on the investigation of the Capitol riot on January 6 last year. Bennie Thompson, chairman of the special investigation committee, pointed out at the hearing that former President Trump wanted the Justice Department to \"legalize\" his election lies and put pressure on multiple officials. White House lawyer Eric Hirschman testified that Jeffrey Clark, a former senior Justice Department official, had indicated that he wanted to use Justice Department power to assist Trump's plan.</p><p>10. Omicron BA.4/5 is coming fiercely: repeated infection of the mutant strain with the strongest immune escape ability</p><p>According to data recently released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Omicron's new mutant strains BA.4 and BA.5 are dominating the United States, accounting for 34.9% of new cases in the United States. Worryingly, research shows that BA.4/5 is by far the Novel Coronavirus variant with the strongest immune escape ability. It can reinfect and walk through the lungs. These characteristics mean that they may lead to more hospitalizations and deaths.</p><p>11. Bridgewater Fund will double its bet on shorting European stocks to US $10.5 billion</p><p>Bridgewater doubled its short bets on European stocks to $10.5 billion, nearly doubling in the past week, and its bearish strength on stocks in the region reached its highest level in two years. The world's largest hedge fund firm disclosed short bets on 28 companies, including on<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0O59.UK\">Sanofi</a>And SAP's personal bets exceed $500 million.</p><p>Last week's data showed that Bridgewater has become the largest short seller in European stock markets, betting more than $5.7 billion against European stocks. The investments include a $1 billion short bet on semiconductor maker ASML and a $1 billion short bet on semiconductor maker ASML, according to data compiled based on regulatory filings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOT\">Total</a>About $752 million in short bets. The number of European companies it has shorted this month has increased to 18.</p><p>12. Russia considers reducing or exempting grain export tariffs</p><p>According to the Interfax news agency, Russia may gradually switch to rubles to levy grain tariffs and consider reducing or exempting grain export tariffs.</p><p>13. ECB official Kazimir: ECB interest rates may reach 1.5%-2% within a year</p><p>Peter Kazimir, a member of the ECB's Governing Council and governor of the Slovakian central bank, said that the ECB may raise interest rates by more than 200 basis points in the next 12 months, bringing interest rates to 1.5%-2% a year from now. Kazimir expects 25 basis points in rate hike in July and then possibly 50 basis points in rate hike in September. \"It all depends on upcoming data.\" Kazimir said some eurozone countries could fall into a \"technical recession\".</p><p>14. German Chancellor Scholz: The EU must be prepared for expansion</p><p>On Thursday (June 23) local time, German Chancellor Scholz said that given that Ukraine and Moldova will obtain candidate country status, the EU should prepare for enlargement. Scholz stressed that in order for a larger alliance to work, more decisions should be adopted on the principle of majority vote instead of requiring unanimity. At present, the EU adopts the principle of unanimous adoption in key decisions, which means that all 27 EU member states have the right to veto policies that they do not approve of with one vote. Previously, due to the opposition of Hungary and other countries, the EU delayed about a month before officially launching the sixth round of sanctions against Russia.</p><p>15. Inflation reaches 21-year high, Mexican central bank announces a rate hike of 75 basis points</p><p>The central bank of Mexico accelerated the pace of raising interest rates on Thursday after data showed that prices rose year-on-year in early June to a 21-year high. Mexico's central bank raised its key interest rate by 75 basis points to 7.75%, in line with expectations of all 27 economists surveyed. The rate hike is also the largest since the bank adopted inflation targeting in 2008, and is the same as the Federal Reserve's rate hike last week. Mexico's central bank generally tends to emulate the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions to avoid sudden capital outflows.</p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine</p><p>1. The EU approves Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries</p><p>European Council President Michel announced on the 23rd local time that the EU summit that day agreed to approve Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries and Georgia as a potential candidate country. Michel called this a historic moment and marked a crucial step for Ukraine towards the EU. European Commission President von der Leyen said that this decision not only strengthens the strength of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, but also the strength of the European Union. The decision of the EU summit was made at the proposal of the European Commission on the 17th of this month.</p><p>2. Zelensky: Ukraine's obtaining EU candidate status is a unique historical moment in Ukraine's relations with the EU</p><p>On the 23rd local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky posted on official social media that Ukraine has obtained EU candidate status, saying that this is a unique historical moment in Ukraine's relations with the EU, and expressed his gratitude to EU leaders for their support.</p><p>3. U.S. official: The United States will provide another $450 million in military assistance to Ukraine</p><p>According to an Associated Press report on June 23, local time, U.S. officials stated that the United States will provide Ukraine with an additional $450 million in military assistance, including the \"Haimas\" high-mobility multiple rocket system, ammunition and other supplies. It is reported that the U.S. government announced on the 15th that it would provide an additional $1 billion in military assistance to Ukraine.</p><p>4. Germany warns Russia that it may trigger energy market collapse</p><p>Germany warned that Russia's reduction of natural gas supplies to Europe could trigger a collapse in the energy market, which was as influential as the financial crisis triggered by Lehman Brothers. After raising Germany's natural gas risk level to the second highest \"alert\" level, Economy Minister Robert Habeck said that losses for energy suppliers are increasing day by day as they are forced to make up for lost gas at high prices, which has a negative impact on the local utility industry. There may be spillover risks for its users, including consumers and businesses. Habeck said at a press conference in Berlin, \"If the losses are too big for them to bear, then the entire market will collapse at some point. This is the Lehman effect of the energy system.\"</p><p>5. Affected by sanctions against Russia, Japan's construction timber supply is difficult</p><p>As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to cause chaos in the international industrial chain and supply chain, it has brought more and more impact to many countries around the world. Because of the frequent earthquakes in Japan, many buildings are made of wood, so the demand for wood is very large. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Japan was no longer able to import large amounts of Russian timber, which had a great impact on the supply of Japanese timber.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245722181\" target=\"_blank\">Nike will fully withdraw from the Russian market</a></p><p>American sports brand Nike said in an emailed statement on Thursday local time that it will completely withdraw from the Russian market after three months of suspension of Russian operations. The analysis pointed out that for Nike, this move is largely symbolic and will have little substantial impact. The combined revenue from Ukraine and Russia is less than 1% of Nike's total revenue.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Says congressional delays threaten to shrink Ohio plant plans</p><p>In a statement sent to the media on Thursday, Intel made it clear: \"Unfortunately, the CHIPS chip bill in the U.S. Congress is progressing slowly, and the company doesn't know exactly when there will be results. Now is the time for Congress to take action so that Intel can move forward at the speed and scale long envisioned for Ohio and other projects.\"</p><p>According to local media reports, the groundbreaking ceremony for Intel's Ohio factory was originally scheduled to be held on July 22, but the company informed Ohio Governor Mike DeWine's office and members of the Ohio congressional delegation on Wednesday that it would postpone the groundbreaking time.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245222074\" target=\"_blank\">E-cigarette manufacturers hit hard! FDA bans JUUL products from entering the US market</a></p><p>The U.S. FDA announced on Thursday that it will ban Juul e-cigarettes from being sold or distributed in the U.S. market, with regulators saying it lacks \"sufficient evidence\" to show that the sale of the product is appropriate for public health. Juul CEO Joe Murillo responded that he did not approve of the FDA's judgment and would exhaust regulatory and related legal options and seek ways to remain in the US market.</p><p>4. The U.S. Court of Appeals rejected<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">Cisco</a>Adverse $2.7 billion in tort damages</p><p>On Thursday, local time, the U.S. Federal Court of Appeals made a ruling to revoke the lower court's compensation in support of Centripetal's patent infringement case against Cisco. The reason is that the judge Morgan who heard the case did not take recusal measures on the premise that his wife held Cisco shares. At that time, Morgan ruled that Cisco should pay Centripetal $1.9 billion in infringement compensation, plus patent licensing fees, and the overall compensation would exceed $2.7 billion.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245371220\" target=\"_blank\">Netflix cuts 300 jobs as revenue growth slows</a></p><p>According to local media reports, streaming media giant Netflix recently laid off 300 employees after laying off 150 employees last month, equivalent to about 3% of the company's employees. Subsequently, the company also confirmed this matter and said that these adjustments were made to ensure that costs matched the decline in revenue growth.</p><p>6. The U.S. Energy Secretary meets with executives of seven major oil companies</p><p>According to an announcement from the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Secretary Granholm held offline talks with CEOs and executives of seven major U.S. oil companies on Thursday and reminded these companies that they must come up with solutions to ensure safe and affordable fuel supply.</p><p>According to local media reports, Phillips 66, the fourth largest refiner in the United States (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSX\">Phillips 66</a>) Wilmington Refinery reported an unexpected fire on June 23.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"BK4555":"新能源车","BK1575":"同股不同权","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK1539":"汽车股","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4099":"汽车制造商","09868":"小鹏汽车-W","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK1119":"汽车制造商","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK1587":"次新股","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147384376","content_text":"摘要：①隔夜美股集体收高，热门中概股多数收涨；②美油创5月来最低收盘价；③美国两项PMI指标均跌至近两年低位；④桥水基金将做空欧股押注翻倍至105亿美元；⑤俄罗斯考虑减免粮食出口关税；⑥欧盟批准乌克兰和摩尔多瓦为欧盟候选国。海外市场1、隔夜美股集体收高 美国科技股多数走高美股收盘，三大股指集体收涨。截至收盘，道指涨0.64%，纳指涨1.62%，标普500指数涨0.95%。美国科技股收盘多数走高，其中苹果涨2.16%、特斯拉跌0.43%、亚马逊涨3.20%、谷歌A涨0.68%、奈飞涨1.58%、微软涨2.26%；经济重启概念多数走弱，美国航空跌0.92%、联合航空跌2.48%、皇家加勒比邮轮跌1.69%、波音跌2.33%。此外，互联网科技股、新能源汽车、消费和医药板块全数大涨。2、热门中概股多数收涨 新能源车板块领涨热门中概股周四多数收涨，新能源车板块领涨，小鹏汽车涨近8%，理想汽车涨6.6%，比亚迪ADR涨3.7%，蔚来涨超2%。其他中概股方面，拼多多收涨6.4%，百度涨2.4%，京东涨近0.8%，而网易跌近0.9%。叮咚买菜涨超7%，阿里巴巴、达达涨逾6%，电子烟第一股雾芯科技涨逾5%，B站、爱奇艺涨超3%，好未来、虎牙、迅雷涨超2%，腾讯粉单、满帮、金山云、知乎涨超1%，而周三刚结束三连跌的新东方收跌近9%，斗鱼跌逾4%，高途教育跌0.5%，网易有道跌近0.4%。3、欧洲主要股指集体收跌德国DAX指数跌1.72%欧股收盘，三大股指全线收跌。德国DAX指数跌1.72%，法国CAC指数跌0.56%，英国富时指数跌1%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.77%。4、美国WTI原油周四收跌1.8% 创5月10日以来最低收盘价美国原油期货价格周四录得连续第二个交易日下跌。纽约商品交易所8月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格下跌1.92美元，跌幅为1.81%，收于每桶104.27美元，创5月10日以来的最低收盘价。投资者担心美联储激进加息可能引发经济衰退，从而抑制燃料需求。5、纽约黄金期货收跌0.5% 连续第四日收跌纽约黄金期货价格周四录得连续第四个交易日下跌。纽约商品交易所8月交割的黄金期货价格下跌8.60美元，跌幅为0.5%，报收于每盎司1829.80美元。分析师指出，周四黄金价格下跌的主要原因是美元走强，而美元走强的原因是市场预期美联储可能会采取更加鹰派的货币政策。国际宏观1、美联储逆回购工具使用量创下2.285万亿美元的新纪录美联储隔夜逆回购工具的使用量周四再创新高。89个参与方动用2.285万亿美元，超过周三触及的前期高点2.259万亿美元。该工具支付隔夜利率0.80%；其利率跟随美联储政策而变化。2、鲍威尔重申“无条件”抗通胀承诺 称经济衰退并非不可避免尽管民主党人警告经济衰退风险，但美联储主席鲍威尔表示，联储抗通胀的承诺是“无条件的”。另一位美联储理事支持下个月再次升息75个基点。鲍威尔周四在众议院金融服务委员会作证时表示，“我们劳动力市场的过热有点不可持续，现在离通胀目标还很遥远。我们真的需要恢复物价稳定，让通胀率回落至2%，因为如果不这样做的话，将无法实现可持续的充分就业。”鲍威尔重申， 美联储仍然希望经济实现软着陆，尽管过程会比较艰难。3、美联储理事Bowman支持在7月加息75个基点美联储理事Michelle Bowman表示，她支持7月升息75个基点，之后再进行几次50基点的加息。Bowman在为马萨诸塞州银行家协会组织的一场活动准备的发言中说，“基于当前的通胀数据，我预计下次会议上加息75个基点是合适的，只要数据支持，在此后的几次会议上应该加息至少50个基点。根据经济的发展情况，之后可能还需要进一步提高联邦基金目标利率区间。”4、美国抵押贷款利率升至5.81% 创2008年以来最高水平美国的抵押贷款利率再次攀升，创14年来高位。房地美在周四发布的声明中称，30年期抵押贷款平均利率为5.81%，高于上周的5.78%。这个走势与10年期美债收益率的下滑背道而驰。此前一周该利率创下1987年以来最大周升幅。5、美国企业活动下降 通胀飙升导致工厂订单和生产萎缩美国企业活动6月向回落迈出了坚定一步，因快速走高的通胀降低了服务业需求，并导致工厂订单和生产径直萎缩。S&P Global周四发布的6月份美国综合产出指数初值下滑2.4点至51.2。虽然仍高于50，但这已是2020年7月以来的次低水平，当时经济正在竭力摆脱疫情引发的衰退。6、美国经济颓势尽显？两项PMI指标均跌至近两年低位附近金融分析公司标普全球（S&P Global）周四（6月23日）公布的最新数据报告显示，6月美国制造业和服务业采购经理指数（PMI）均出现了超于预期的跌幅。具体数据显示，美国6月制造业PMI初值录得52.4，刷新23个月低位，远低于市场预期的56和5月的57；制造业产出指数初值录得49.6，刷新24个月低位，远不及上月的55.2。6月商务活动指数（服务业PMI）初值录得51.6，显著低于市场预期的53.5和5月的53.4，刷新5个月低位，为2020年7月以来第三次跌至52以下。7、美国最高法院推翻纽约州一项枪支法律 将允许更多人合法持枪当地时间6月23日，美国最高法院在一项有关持枪权的重大裁决中推翻了纽约州一项限制性的枪支法律，将允许更多人在街道上合法持枪。法官们以6票赞成、3票反对的结果推翻了纽约州一项限制性的枪支法律，该法律要求人们证明自己特别需要携带枪支，才能获得在公共场合携带枪支的执照。法官们表示，这一要求违反了第二修正案“持有和携带武器”的权利。据悉，美国加利福尼亚州、夏威夷、马里兰州、马萨诸塞州、新泽西州和罗得岛州都有类似的法律，可能会因这项裁决而受到挑战。8、美国参议员致函拜登 称其应当考虑限制原油出口美国民主党参议员敦促总统拜登限制原油出口，从而保障美国及其盟友的的石油供应。参议员Jack Reed、Tammy Duckworth、Tammy Baldwin和Jeanne Shaheen在一封信函中表示，能源价格“严重飙升”给使用这一权力提供了理由。美国能源部长Jennifer Granholm定于今天与石油企业高管会面。9、美国会众议院特别调查委员会就国会大厦骚乱事件举行第五场公开听证会当地时间6月23日，美国国会众议院特别调查委员会就去年1月6日国会大厦骚乱事件的调查举行第五场公开听证会。特别调查委员会主席本尼·汤普森（Bennie Thompson）在听证会上指出，前总统特朗普希望司法部将他的选举谎言“合法化”，并对多名官员进行施压。白宫律师埃里克·赫施曼作证称，前司法部高级官员杰弗里·克拉克（Jeffrey Clark）曾表示想利用司法部权力协助特朗普的计划。10、奥密克戎BA.4/5来势汹汹：免疫逃逸能力最强变异株 重复感染根据美国疾控中心（CDC）近日发布的数据，奥密克戎新变异株BA.4和BA.5正在美国占据主导，已经占据了美国新增病例的34.9%。令人担忧的是，研究显示，BA.4/5是目前为止免疫逃逸能力最强的新冠病毒变异株，可以重复感染，能走肺，这些特征意味着它们可能导致更多的住院和死亡。11、桥水基金将做空欧股押注翻倍至105亿美元桥水对欧洲股票的做空押注增加一倍，至105亿美元，在过去一周几乎翻了一番，对该地区股市的看空力度达到两年来的最高水平。根据汇编数据，这家全球最大的对冲基金公司披露了对28家公司的空头押注，其中包括对阿斯麦、道达尔、赛诺菲和思爱普的个人押注超过5亿美元。上周数据显示，桥水已成为欧洲股市的最大空头，大举押注逾57亿美元做空欧股。基于监管文件汇总的数据显示，这些投资中包括对半导体制造商阿斯麦10亿美元的空头押注以及对道达尔约7.52亿美元的空头押注。该公司本月做空的欧洲公司数量已增至18家。12、俄罗斯考虑减免粮食出口关税据国际文传电讯社，俄罗斯可能会逐步改用卢布征收粮食关税，并考虑减免粮食出口关税。13、欧洲央行官员Kazimir：欧洲央行利率可能在一年内达到1.5%-2%欧洲央行管理委员会成员，担任斯洛伐克央行行长的Peter Kazimir表示，欧洲央行可能在未来12个月内将利率提高超过200个基点，使利率从现在开始的一年后达到1.5%-2%。Kazimir预计7月加息25个基点，然后9月可能加息50个基点。“这一切都取决于即将到来的数据。”Kazimir表示，一些欧元区国家可能陷入“技术性衰退”。14、德国总理朔尔茨：欧盟必须做好扩张的准备当地时间周四（6月23日），德国总理朔尔茨表示，鉴于乌克兰和摩尔多瓦将获得候选国身份，欧盟应该为扩大做好准备。朔尔茨强调，为了让更大的联盟发挥作用，更多的决定应该采取多数表决通过的原则，而不是要求全体一致通过。目前，在关键决策上欧盟采取的是一致通过原则，这意味着欧盟27个成员国均有权一票否决自己不认可的政策。此前，由于匈牙利等国的反对，欧盟拖延了约一个月时间，才正式推出针对俄罗斯的第六轮制裁。15、通胀达到21年高位 墨西哥央行宣布加息75基点在数据显示6月初物价同比升幅达到21年高位后，墨西哥央行周四加快了升息步伐。墨西哥央行将关键利率上调75个基点至7.75%，符合接受调查的所有27位经济学家的预期。此次加息幅度也是该行2008年采用通胀目标制以来最大，并且与美联储上周的加息幅度相同。墨西哥央行通常倾向于效仿美联储的利率决定，以避免资本突然外流。俄乌局势1、欧盟批准乌克兰和摩尔多瓦为欧盟候选国欧洲理事会主席米歇尔当地时间23日宣布，当天的欧盟峰会同意批准乌克兰和摩尔多瓦为欧盟候选国，格鲁吉亚为潜在候选国。米歇尔称这是一个历史性的时刻，标志着乌克兰向欧盟迈出了关键一步。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩表示，这一决定不仅加强了乌克兰、摩尔多瓦和格鲁吉亚三国的力量，同时也加强了欧盟的实力。欧盟峰会的这项决定是应欧盟委员会本月17日的建议作出的。2、泽连斯基：乌获得欧盟候选国地位 是乌克兰与欧盟关系独一无二的历史时刻当地时间23日，乌克兰总统泽连斯基就乌克兰获得欧盟候选国地位在官方社交媒体上发文称，这是乌克兰与欧盟关系中独一无二的历史时刻，并对欧盟领导人的支持表示感谢。3、美官员：美国将再向乌克兰提供4.5亿美元的军事援助据美联社当地时间6月23日报道，美国官员表示，美国将再向乌克兰提供4.5亿美元的军事援助，包括“海马斯”高机动性多管火箭系统、弹药和其他物资。据悉，美国政府曾在15日宣布向乌克兰额外提供10亿美元的军事援助。4、德国警告俄罗斯或引发能源市场崩溃德国警告说，俄罗斯削减欧洲天然气供应可能引发能源市场崩溃，影响力不亚于当年雷曼兄弟引爆金融危机。在将德国天然气风险级别上调至第二高的“警戒”水平后，经济部长Robert Habeck表示，由于被迫以高价补平损失的气量，能源供应商的亏损正在日益增加，对当地公用事业行业及其用户（包括消费者和企业）可能存在溢出风险。Habeck在柏林召开的新闻发布会上表示，“如果亏损大到以他们不能承受，那么整个市场就会在某个时刻崩塌。这是能源系统的雷曼效应。”5、受对俄制裁影响 日本建筑木材供应难由于俄乌冲突持续造成国际产业链以及供应链的混乱，给世界多国都带来越来越多的影响。日本因为地震多发，建筑很多都采用木质结构，因而对木材的需求量非常大。俄乌冲突发生后，日本无法再大量进口俄罗斯木材，这给日本木材的供应造成了很大影响。公司新闻1、耐克将全面退出俄罗斯市场美国运动品牌耐克(Nike)当地时间周四在一份电子邮件声明中称，在俄罗斯业务暂停三个月后，该品牌将全面退出俄罗斯市场。分析指出，对耐克来说，这一举措在很大程度上是象征性的，不会产生什么实质性影响。来自乌克兰和俄罗斯两国的收入加起来也不到耐克总收入的1%。2、英特尔称国会延误恐导致俄亥俄工厂计划缩水在周四发送给媒体的声明中，英特尔明确表示：“不幸的是，美国国会的CHIPS芯片法案进展缓慢，公司也不知道到底什么时候能有结果。现在是国会采取行动的时候了，这样英特尔才能以长期以来为俄亥俄州以及其他项目设想的速度和规模向前推进。”根据当地媒体报道，英特尔俄亥俄工厂的开工仪式原定于7月22日举行，但公司周三向俄亥俄州州长Mike DeWine的办公室和俄亥俄州国会代表团成员通报将会推迟破土的时间。3、电子烟制造商遭重创！FDA禁止JUUL产品进入美国市场美国FDA周四宣布，将禁止Juul电子烟在美国市场进行销售或分销，监管称“缺乏足够证据”显示该产品的销售对于公共健康是合适的。Juul首席执行官Joe Murillo回应称不认可FDA的判断，将穷尽监管和相关法律的选项，寻求继续留在美国市场的方法。4、美国上诉法院驳回对思科不利的27亿美元侵权赔偿当地时间周四，美国联邦上诉法院作出判决，撤销下级法院支持Centripetal控告思科专利侵权案的赔偿，原因是审理此案的法官摩根在明知自己妻子持有思科股票的前提下，并没有采取回避措施。当时摩根判决思科向Centripetal支付19亿美元的侵权赔偿，加上专利授权许可费，整体赔偿金将超过27亿美元。5、营收增速放缓，Netflix裁员300人据当地媒体报道，流媒体巨头奈飞继上个月裁员150人后，又在近期裁掉了300名员工，约等于整个公司3%的雇员。随后公司也确认了这一事项，并表示作出这些调整是为了确保成本与营收增速下滑相匹配。6、美国能源部长会见七大油企高管根据美国能源部的公告，周四能源部长格兰霍姆与七家美国主要油企的CEO和高管举行了线下会谈，并提醒这些企业必须拿出解决方案确保安全、可负担的燃油供应。根据当地媒体报道，美国第四大炼油商菲利普斯66公司（Phillips 66）威尔明顿炼油厂6月23日报告发生意外火灾。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09868":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"EVS.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":918,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9049035715,"gmtCreate":1655717762437,"gmtModify":1676535692095,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9049035715","repostId":"1108859520","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":598,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9023261111,"gmtCreate":1652922137833,"gmtModify":1676535189331,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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10(Z77.SI)$..","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f4af9cba62328d4f2910a1cf9d0bbc3c","width":"1125","height":"1955"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023261111","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9069751246,"gmtCreate":1651366782531,"gmtModify":1676534894990,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9069751246","repostId":"1190110506","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":826,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9038859065,"gmtCreate":1646794146395,"gmtModify":1676534163394,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9038859065","repostId":"2218340628","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":832,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9031355300,"gmtCreate":1646447757420,"gmtModify":1676534130992,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9031355300","repostId":"2216646810","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2216646810","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1646403374,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2216646810?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-04 22:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Analysis | Non-agricultural performance is beautiful, does the Fed have to step up its horsepower to deal with inflation?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2216646810","media":"金十数据","summary":"美国2月季调后非农就业人口录得增加67.8万人，为去年7月来最大增幅，高于市场预期。1月份非农新增就业人数从46.7万人上修至48.1万人；去年12月份非农新增就业人数从51万人上修至58.8万人。 ","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 678,000 in February, the largest increase since July last year and higher than market expectations. The number of new non-agricultural jobs in January was revised upward from 467,000 to 481,000; The number of new non-agricultural jobs in December last year was revised upward from 510,000 to 588,000. The U.S. unemployment rate recorded 3.8% in February, the lowest since February 2020.</p><p>After the data was released, spot gold gave up gains after rising by $2 in the short term. The US Dollar Index rose 32 points in the short term; Non-US currencies generally fell, with the euro falling more than 40 points against the US dollar in the short term and the pound falling 30 points against the US dollar in the short term.</p><p><b>The probability of the Federal Reserve's rate hike has increased compared with before the data was released.</b>The probability of the Fed's 25 basis point rate hike in March is 97.8%, compared with 95.9% before; The probability of a 75 basis point rate hike in May is 23.5%, compared with 20.9% previously.</p><p>The Bureau of Labor Statistics said employment grew broadly, primarily in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, healthcare and construction. The WSJ said this shows that the labor market is performing strongly as the Fed prepares for a rate hike.</p><p>Analyst Carl Riccadonna said that such a large increase in employment shows that the unemployment rate will drop significantly this year. In the short term, this will not raise the 50 basis point expectation of the Fed's rate hike, especially as the Russia-Ukraine crisis intensifies, but<b>It does make the situation of federal funds even more severe later this year.</b></p><p>Analyst Katia Dmitrieva pointed to wages as a factor that frustrates employees. Despite higher-than-expected wage growth, wage growth was flat for the month, up 5.1% from a year earlier.<b>The annual increase is still more than double the pre-pandemic rate, but well below any economist's expectations.</b>With inflation at a 40-year high, this is also a potentially worrying signal for personal finances.</p><p>Analyst Steve Matthews believes this report seems to be in line with the kind of report the Fed wants to see. The labor force participation rate has improved nicely, so there has been some relief in the supply problem, which has been one of the problems on the employer side before.<b>Wage growth has also declined, so there is not much indication that wages are causing an inflationary spiral.</b></p><p>Powell has previously announced that he will support and propose a 25 basis point rate hike at the March meeting, so the market generally believes that this employment report basically has no impact on the March decision. Fed Evans also said that the (employment) report is good news, but<b>Will not change Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's plans.</b></p><p>At present, the tension in Ukraine has triggered market concerns about the economic stagflation. Coupled with Powell's cautious stance, the market is no longer aggressively betting on the Fed's rate hike of 50 basis points. It is expected that the Fed will rate hike 6 times this year, with each rate hike The range is 25 basis points.</p><p>However,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The attitude is more pessimistic, with the agency raising its U.S. inflation forecast and expecting the Federal Reserve to conduct more rate hike than expected in 2023. Erik Norland, executive director and senior economist at CME group, pointed out that no matter which path the Fed ultimately follows to implement monetary policy,<b>The impact on reality is policy tightening, and the general direction will not change at all.</b></p><p>Analysts believe that if the Federal Reserve is too fast to rate hike and shrinking balance sheet, gold prices will face a lot of room for adjustment. Previously, under the disturbance of safe-haven funds, the upper space of gold was further compressed, so the lower space was much larger than the upper space.</p><p><b>U.S. February non-farm payrolls report full text in Chinese</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de0fb499f0466794df31e509152538f0\" tg-width=\"1600\" tg-height=\"7204\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Analysis | Non-agricultural performance is beautiful, does the Fed have to step up its horsepower to deal with inflation?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAnalysis | Non-agricultural performance is beautiful, does the Fed have to step up its horsepower to deal with inflation?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-04 22:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 678,000 in February, the largest increase since July last year and higher than market expectations. The number of new non-agricultural jobs in January was revised upward from 467,000 to 481,000; The number of new non-agricultural jobs in December last year was revised upward from 510,000 to 588,000. The U.S. unemployment rate recorded 3.8% in February, the lowest since February 2020.</p><p>After the data was released, spot gold gave up gains after rising by $2 in the short term. The US Dollar Index rose 32 points in the short term; Non-US currencies generally fell, with the euro falling more than 40 points against the US dollar in the short term and the pound falling 30 points against the US dollar in the short term.</p><p><b>The probability of the Federal Reserve's rate hike has increased compared with before the data was released.</b>The probability of the Fed's 25 basis point rate hike in March is 97.8%, compared with 95.9% before; The probability of a 75 basis point rate hike in May is 23.5%, compared with 20.9% previously.</p><p>The Bureau of Labor Statistics said employment grew broadly, primarily in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, healthcare and construction. The WSJ said this shows that the labor market is performing strongly as the Fed prepares for a rate hike.</p><p>Analyst Carl Riccadonna said that such a large increase in employment shows that the unemployment rate will drop significantly this year. In the short term, this will not raise the 50 basis point expectation of the Fed's rate hike, especially as the Russia-Ukraine crisis intensifies, but<b>It does make the situation of federal funds even more severe later this year.</b></p><p>Analyst Katia Dmitrieva pointed to wages as a factor that frustrates employees. Despite higher-than-expected wage growth, wage growth was flat for the month, up 5.1% from a year earlier.<b>The annual increase is still more than double the pre-pandemic rate, but well below any economist's expectations.</b>With inflation at a 40-year high, this is also a potentially worrying signal for personal finances.</p><p>Analyst Steve Matthews believes this report seems to be in line with the kind of report the Fed wants to see. The labor force participation rate has improved nicely, so there has been some relief in the supply problem, which has been one of the problems on the employer side before.<b>Wage growth has also declined, so there is not much indication that wages are causing an inflationary spiral.</b></p><p>Powell has previously announced that he will support and propose a 25 basis point rate hike at the March meeting, so the market generally believes that this employment report basically has no impact on the March decision. Fed Evans also said that the (employment) report is good news, but<b>Will not change Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's plans.</b></p><p>At present, the tension in Ukraine has triggered market concerns about the economic stagflation. Coupled with Powell's cautious stance, the market is no longer aggressively betting on the Fed's rate hike of 50 basis points. It is expected that the Fed will rate hike 6 times this year, with each rate hike The range is 25 basis points.</p><p>However,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The attitude is more pessimistic, with the agency raising its U.S. inflation forecast and expecting the Federal Reserve to conduct more rate hike than expected in 2023. Erik Norland, executive director and senior economist at CME group, pointed out that no matter which path the Fed ultimately follows to implement monetary policy,<b>The impact on reality is policy tightening, and the general direction will not change at all.</b></p><p>Analysts believe that if the Federal Reserve is too fast to rate hike and shrinking balance sheet, gold prices will face a lot of room for adjustment. Previously, under the disturbance of safe-haven funds, the upper space of gold was further compressed, so the lower space was much larger than the upper space.</p><p><b>U.S. February non-farm payrolls report full text in Chinese</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de0fb499f0466794df31e509152538f0\" tg-width=\"1600\" tg-height=\"7204\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=90875&type=news\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09feb8feb9c4225b11dae38a4ba99e09","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4581":"高盛持仓","OEX":"标普100","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=90875&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2216646810","content_text":"美国2月季调后非农就业人口录得增加67.8万人，为去年7月来最大增幅，高于市场预期。1月份非农新增就业人数从46.7万人上修至48.1万人；去年12月份非农新增就业人数从51万人上修至58.8万人。 美国2月失业率录得3.8%，为2020年2月来新低。数据公布后，现货黄金短线走高2美元后回吐涨幅。美元指数短线走高32点；非美货币普遍走低，欧元兑美元短线下跌逾40点，英镑兑美元短线下跌30点。美联储加息概率较数据公布前上升。美联储3月加息25个基点的概率为97.8%，之前为95.9%；5月加息75个基点的概率为23.5%，之前为20.9%。美国劳工统计局表示，就业普遍增长，主要是休闲和酒店、专业和商业服务、医疗保健和建筑业的增长。华尔街日报称，这表明在美联储准备加息之际，劳动力市场表现强劲。分析师Carl Riccadonna表示，就业人数增幅如此之大，表明今年的失业率将大幅下降。短期内，这不会让美联储加息50个基点预期升温，尤其是在俄乌危机愈演愈烈的情况下，但它确实会让今年晚些时候的联邦基金状况变得更加严峻。分析师Katia Dmitrieva指出，工资是令员工感到沮丧的一个因素。尽管工资增幅高于预期，但当月工资增幅持平，较上年同期增长5.1%。年度增幅仍是大流行前的两倍多，但远低于任何经济学家的预期。在通胀处于40年高点的情况下，这对个人财务状况来说也是一个潜在的令人担忧的信号。分析师Steve Matthews认为，这份报告似乎很符合美联储希望看到的那种报告。劳动力参与率有了很好的提高，因此供给问题得到了一些缓解，而供给此前一直是雇主方面存在的问题之一。工资增速也有所下降，因此没有多少迹象表明工资会导致通胀螺旋式上升。 此前鲍威尔已经宣布他将支持并提议在3月份的会议上加息25个基点，因此市场普遍这份就业报告基本上对3月份的决定没有任何影响。美联储埃文斯也表示，（就业）报告是个好消息，但不会改变美联储主席鲍威尔的计划。 当前，乌克兰的紧张局势引发了市场对经济滞涨的担忧，加上鲍威尔的谨慎表态，市场不再激进押注美联储加息50个基点，预计美联储今年将加息6次，每次加息幅度为25个基点。不过，高盛态度更加悲观，该机构上调美国通胀预测，并预计美联储2023年的加息次数将超过预期。芝商所执行董事兼资深经济学家Erik Norland指出，不论美联储最终按照哪种路径执行货币政策，对现实的影响都是政策收紧，大方向不会有丝毫改变。分析师认为，如果美联储过快加息和缩表，金价则面临很大调整空间。黄金此前在避险资金的扰动下，上方空间被进一步压缩，因此下方空间远大于上方空间。美国2月非农就业报告中文全文","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.6,"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"518880":0.6,"GDX":0.6,"IAU":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"GLD":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SPY":1,".IXIC":1,"DUST":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"SImain":1,"MNQmain":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"NUGT":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SGCmain":0.6,"SH":0.6,".DJI":1,"GCmain":1,"QLD":0.6,"SGUmain":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"MGCmain":1,"SPXU":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"DXD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":272,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9090411314,"gmtCreate":1643243850877,"gmtModify":1676533789437,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9090411314","repostId":"2206899529","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":840,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9045962820,"gmtCreate":1656551978760,"gmtModify":1676535852106,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9045962820","repostId":"1120000025","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120000025","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1656546145,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120000025?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-30 07:42","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | The S&P rebounded and failed to linger in a bear market, hitting its largest half-year decline since 1970","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120000025","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①隔夜美股涨跌不一，道指涨0.27%，纳指跌0.03%，标普500跌0.07%，中概股普跌；②欧美三位央行行长齐声表态遏制通胀是现阶段的首要任务；③美司法部称已冻结3300亿美元俄罗斯寡头和银行","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: ① U.S. stocks were mixed overnight, the Dow rose 0.27%, the Nasdaq fell 0.03%, the S&P 500 fell 0.07%, and Chinese concept stocks generally fell; ② Three central bank governors in Europe and the United States stated in unison that curbing inflation is the top priority at this stage; ③ The U.S. Department of Justice said it had frozen $330 billion in Russian oligarchs and bank assets; ④ Ukrainian President Zelensky announced the interruption of diplomatic relations with Syria. Overseas Market</p><p>1. U.S. stocks closed mixed on Wednesday, large technology stocks rose and fell mixed</p><p>U.S. stocks closed mixed on Wednesday. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell believes that the U.S. economic situation is strong and can withstand rate hike, but cannot guarantee a soft landing for the economy. As of the close, the Nasdaq fell 0.03% to 11177.89 points; The Dow rose 0.27% to 31,029.31 points; The S&P 500 index fell 0.07% to 3818.83 points, in the bear market range for two consecutive days, closing down more than 20% from the record high on January 3 this year, and is set to record its largest semi-annual decline since 1970 as of Thursday. The Nasdaq closed down 0.03% at 11,177.89 points. Both the S&P and the S&P fell for three consecutive days, continuing to fall from the highest since June 9 set last Friday.</p><p>Large tech stocks rose and fell mixed,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Up 1.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Up more than 1%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It fell 1.79%, while Meta rose 2%.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed lower<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Fell more than 2%</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks mostly closed lower on Wednesday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOUR\">Tuniu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Up more than 9%, Ctrip rose 2.5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up 0.5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Down 0.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Down 4.3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up 0.2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Closed flat. Among new energy vehicles,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>In response to the Grizzlies' short selling saying that there were \"a lot of errors\" in the report, its U.S. stocks fell 2.4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up 2.7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Fell 1.7%.</p><p>3. Major European stock indexes closed generally lower, and the German DAX30 index fell 1.7%</p><p>Major European stock indexes closed generally lower on Wednesday, with Germany's DAX30 index falling 1.7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.14%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.98%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell 1%.</p><p>4. U.S. WTI crude oil futures closed down 1.77% on Wednesday, ending three consecutive gains</p><p>U.S. crude oil futures prices closed lower on Wednesday, ending three consecutive trading days of gains. The prospect of a weaker global economy has put pressure on oil prices. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $1.98, or 1.77%, to close at $109.78 per barrel.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 0.2%, hitting a two-week low</p><p>Gold futures prices in New York closed lower on Wednesday and hit their lowest closing price in two weeks, recording the third consecutive trading day of losses. The price of gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $3.70, or 0.2%, at $1,817.50 an ounce, the lowest closing price since June 14.</p><p>6. European natural gas rose 8% to a three-month high</p><p>European natural gas rebounded strongly. ICE British natural gas futures closed up 4.42% at 174.12 pence/kcal, breaking away from the lowest level since last Monday, June 13, which fell 3% on Tuesday; TTF benchmark Dutch natural gas futures closed up 8.03% at 139.588 euros/MWh, a new high since March 8 and a new high in more than three months after hitting new highs since March 11 last Wednesday and Thursday.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. The GDP of the United States in the first quarter was lowered again! The annualized quarterly rate decline expanded to 1.6%</p><p>On Wednesday (June 29th) local time, the latest report released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis once again lowered the growth rate of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter. Specific data show that in the first quarter of this year, the annualized quarterly rate of U.S. GDP fell by 1.6%, which is undoubtedly a huge blow compared with the 1.1% growth expected by economists. According to the report of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the weakness of personal consumption expenditure is the main reason for this downward adjustment. It is worth mentioning that this is the second downward revision of GDP in the first quarter. The quarterly GDP of the United States will be released three times. In the initial value report in April, the annualized quarterly rate of GDP fell by 1.4%; In the revised value report, this decline expanded to 1.5%. The report also pointed out that the record trade deficit dragged down the performance of the United States this quarter.</p><p>2. Powell says the U.S. economy is strong and the Fed can avoid recession</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said during a panel discussion at the European Central Bank's annual policy forum in Sintra, Portugal, on Wednesday that the U.S. economy is in \"strong shape\" and that the central bank can reduce inflation to 2% while maintaining a solid labor market, although the task has become more challenging in recent months. Raising interest rates without triggering a recession is \"our goal, and we believe there is a path to that,\" Powell said.</p><p>3. Democrats discuss cutting tax increases in the hope of getting Biden's economic package passed in the next few weeks</p><p>Democrats in the U.S. Senate are seeking to reduce the tax increase in President Joe Biden's economic package, hoping to reach an agreement with Senator Joe Manchin and get the plan passed in the coming weeks, people familiar with the matter said. The adjustments under consideration would weaken some of the tax increases passed by the House last year and could mean that both U.S. businesses and wealthy families end up with smaller tax increases than Biden and Democrats originally envisaged, people familiar with the matter said.</p><p>4. U.S. Supreme Court Justice Breyer will retire on the 30th, and his successor will be Jackson nominated by Biden</p><p>On Wednesday local time, the U.S. Supreme Court announced that liberal Justice Stephen Breyer will officially retire on the 30th. He will be succeeded by Ketanji Brown Jackson, the first African-American female justice in American history and nominated by Biden. Breyer, 83, has served on the federal Supreme Court since 1994. He is considered a liberal of the Supreme Court and one of only three liberal justices. Therefore, even after the substitution, the ratio of conservative to liberal justices in the U.S. Supreme Court is still 6: 3, which has not changed the current pattern.</p><p>5. US poll: 78% of Americans believe that Biden is leading the United States on the wrong path</p><p>According to a poll conducted jointly by Morning Consult and Politico, 78% of Americans who participated in the poll believe that President Biden is leading the United States on the wrong path in policy. In a poll conducted in late February 2021 after Biden took office, 51% of respondents thought the United States was heading in the wrong direction. This figure has increased by 27 percentage points since then.</p><p>6. A coalition of U.S. environmental organizations files a lawsuit against the Biden administration for its first sale of onshore oil and gas drilling leases</p><p>On June 29, local time, a coalition of 10 environmental organizations filed a lawsuit against the Biden administration for its first sale of onshore oil and gas drilling leases on the evening of the 28th. The environmental groups say the lease violates the U.S. National Environmental Policy Act and the federal Land Policy and Management Act, noting that additional drilling will lead to climate change.</p><p>7. It is reported that the White House is analyzing what will happen to the economy when oil prices rise to $200</p><p>On Wednesday, Eastern Time, according to media reports, the Biden administration has begun to analyze and simulate what kind of damage it will cause to the economy when international oil prices reach US $200 per barrel. As the media commented: Economic officials are not studying Managing an economy in its natural development, moving from recovery to a period of steady growth, is analyzing and simulating the worst-case scenario, such as what the impact of oil prices reaching US $200 per barrel may mean for the economy.</p><p>8. The United States hopes that OPEC will have a second step to follow up after increasing production in the near future</p><p>Amos Hochstein, senior adviser on energy security at the U.S. State Department, said in an interview that the United States welcomed OPEC's decision to accelerate oil supply growth earlier this month, calling it a \"major change in attitude.\" Hochstein hopes that OPEC's plan to increase production by 648,000 barrels per day in July and August is the \"first step\" in its supply policy, followed by a \"second step\". The United States is in talks with OPEC countries that still have spare production capacity to assess whether it is necessary to further release strategic oil reserves after October.</p><p>9. The Doha talks between the United States, Iran and the European Union ended without achieving expected results</p><p>On the evening of June 29th, local time, the negotiations between Iran, the United States and the European Union aimed at lifting the sanctions against Iran by the United States ended in Doha, Qatar. Mora, Deputy Secretary-General of the European External Action Service, said, \"We have not made the progress we hoped for before, but we will continue to work hard to get the Iranian nuclear deal back on track.\"</p><p>10. EU negotiators reach agreement on fund transfer supervision in encryption software anti-money laundering rules</p><p>The European Parliament said EU negotiators reached an agreement on the regulation of money transfers in anti-money laundering rules for crypto software.</p><p>11. The German cabinet is reviewing the draft budget for 2023 and plans to regain compliance with the \"debt brake\" principle</p><p>According to German government insiders on June 29, local time, the federal cabinet is reviewing the 2023 budget. Influenced by COVID-19 pandemic, Germany has broken the \"debt brake\" principle for three consecutive years. According to the draft budget submitted by Federal Finance Minister Lindner, the total amount of German government loans will drop to around 17 billion euros in 2023. Therefore, Germany plans to regain compliance with the \"debt brake\" principle from next year.</p><p>12. German inflation slowed in June, and the government's temporary relief measures eased inflationary pressures</p><p>German inflation unexpectedly slowed as the government's temporary relief measures eased pressure on households and businesses squeezed by a record surge in prices. Fuel duty cuts and public transport cost discounts helped reduce consumer price increases to 8.2% in June from 8.7% in May, data showed Wednesday. Analysts surveyed had expected a rise of 8.8%.</p><p>13. President of Finland: Finland and Sweden will sign the \"Accession\" Protocol by July 5 at the latest</p><p>On June 29, local time, Finnish President Niinisto stated at a press conference held in Madrid, Spain that Finland and Sweden will sign the \"accession\" protocol on July 5 at the latest.</p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine</p><p>1. Putin: Russia's special military operations against Ukraine may change at the tactical level</p><p>On June 29, local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the goals of Russia's special military operations against Ukraine will not change, but there may be changes at the tactical level. Putin said that Western countries' call for Ukraine to continue fighting confirms Russia's conjecture that what Western countries want to protect is not Ukraine's interests, but their own interests. Putin also said that if NATO deploys military forces in Finland and Sweden, Russia will have to take countermeasures.</p><p>2. The U.S. Department of Justice says it has frozen $330 billion in assets of Russian oligarchs and banks</p><p>The U.S. and its allies have frozen more than $30 billion in the assets of Russian oligarchs, the Justice Department said, and the relevant task force has frozen Russia<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>The funding is about $300 billion. The U.S.-formed task force on Russian elites, proxies and oligarchs (REPO) has released new details about the seizure of high-value properties owned by Russian business giants. They tried to seize the luxury goods of these giants, including yachts worth hundreds of millions of dollars, to exert continued political pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Ministry of Justice believes that the work of the task force is \"unfinished\" and that the task force will continue to track Russian assets in the coming months.</p><p>Russian officials have responded to the continuous seizure and freezing of Russian assets by Western countries. A spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry warned on Wednesday that Russia has the right to take retaliatory measures, such as confiscating assets owned by western countries in Russia.</p><p>3. Ukrainian President Zelensky announced the interruption of diplomatic relations with Syria</p><p>After Syria announced its recognition of the sovereignty and independence of the \"Luhansk People's Republic\" and the \"Donetsk People's Republic\", Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that evening the interruption of diplomatic relations between the country and Syria. Zelensky said in a routine video on the 29th that \"there will no longer be relations between Ukraine and Syria\" and that Ukraine's sanctions against Syria will also be stronger.</p><p>4. British Prime Minister Johnson promises to provide another 1 billion pounds of military aid to Ukraine</p><p>On June 29, local time, at the NATO summit held in Madrid, the capital of Spain, British Prime Minister Johnson promised to provide another 1 billion pounds worth of military assistance to Ukraine, which made the UK's military assistance to Ukraine during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Aid funds reached 2.3 billion pounds. The funds will be used to develop air defense systems, unmanned aerial vehicles, electronic warfare equipment, etc.</p><p>5. International rating agency Fitch: If Russian natural gas supply is cut off, some Central and Eastern European countries will be hit hard</p><p>Fitch, an international rating agency, said in a report that if Russia's natural gas supply to the EU is suddenly interrupted, it will have a serious impact on some Central and Eastern European countries, including high inflation and negative economic growth. According to the report, if Russian natural gas supply is cut off, Slovakia, Hungary and the Czech Republic will be most seriously affected because these countries are highly dependent on Russian natural gas and lack alternative products. Poland, Lithuania and Romania are less affected, because these countries have basically found alternative energy sources or achieved domestic production.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2247028328\" target=\"_blank\">Buffett's heavily invested food giant breaks up with supermarket chains: won't let price increases? Off the shelves!</a></p><p>According to local media reports in the UK, many products of Kraft Heinz, an American food producer, have been removed from Tesco, a British supermarket chain, due to the collapse of the talk between the company and the supermarket over price increases. As we all know, Kraft Heinz is also Buffett's favorite stock.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>At present, it holds 26.61% of the company's shares and is the largest shareholder of the company. A Tesco spokesman said righteously that it was a pity that this change would lead to many products being removed from the shelves, but supermarkets would not pass on unreasonable price increases to our customers, and consumers also had \"many alternative choices\". With UK household budgets under increasing pressure, supermarkets are more responsible than ever to ensure users get the best value possible.</p><p>2. Tesla's weekly output in Texas reaches 5,000 vehicles</p><p>According to automotive news website Electrek, citing people familiar with the matter, Tesla has managed to increase production at its Gigafactory in Texas, which can deliver up to 5,000 vehicles per week. This factory also produces a long-range version of the Model Y, which helps increase overall production. Tesla aims to increase weekly production to 10,000 vehicles by the end of the year.</p><p>3. Eli Lilly was approved to conduct clinical trials of Donanemab in the treatment of early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease in China</p><p>Eli Lilly China announced that its clinical trial application for Donanemab injection in China has been approved by the National Medical Products Administration. This is a global study evaluating the safety and efficacy of Donanemab in the treatment of early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease, including mild cognitive impairment due to Alzheimer's disease, and mild Alzheimer's disease.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2247022295\" target=\"_blank\">Pfizer signs a US $3.2 billion vaccine order with the US government: the price per dose is about US $30.50</a></p><p>On Wednesday local time, Pfizer said it had signed a new vaccine supply agreement with the U.S. government. The U.S. government will pay Pfizer US $3.2 billion to purchase 105 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine, which are expected to be delivered as early as the end of this summer.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | The S&P rebounded and failed to linger in a bear market, hitting its largest half-year decline since 1970</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | The S&P rebounded and failed to linger in a bear market, hitting its largest half-year decline since 1970\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-30 07:42</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: ① U.S. stocks were mixed overnight, the Dow rose 0.27%, the Nasdaq fell 0.03%, the S&P 500 fell 0.07%, and Chinese concept stocks generally fell; ② Three central bank governors in Europe and the United States stated in unison that curbing inflation is the top priority at this stage; ③ The U.S. Department of Justice said it had frozen $330 billion in Russian oligarchs and bank assets; ④ Ukrainian President Zelensky announced the interruption of diplomatic relations with Syria. Overseas Market</p><p>1. U.S. stocks closed mixed on Wednesday, large technology stocks rose and fell mixed</p><p>U.S. stocks closed mixed on Wednesday. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell believes that the U.S. economic situation is strong and can withstand rate hike, but cannot guarantee a soft landing for the economy. As of the close, the Nasdaq fell 0.03% to 11177.89 points; The Dow rose 0.27% to 31,029.31 points; The S&P 500 index fell 0.07% to 3818.83 points, in the bear market range for two consecutive days, closing down more than 20% from the record high on January 3 this year, and is set to record its largest semi-annual decline since 1970 as of Thursday. The Nasdaq closed down 0.03% at 11,177.89 points. Both the S&P and the S&P fell for three consecutive days, continuing to fall from the highest since June 9 set last Friday.</p><p>Large tech stocks rose and fell mixed,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Up 1.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Up more than 1%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It fell 1.79%, while Meta rose 2%.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed lower<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Fell more than 2%</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks mostly closed lower on Wednesday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOUR\">Tuniu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Up more than 9%, Ctrip rose 2.5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up 0.5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Down 0.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Down 4.3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up 0.2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Closed flat. Among new energy vehicles,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>In response to the Grizzlies' short selling saying that there were \"a lot of errors\" in the report, its U.S. stocks fell 2.4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up 2.7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Fell 1.7%.</p><p>3. Major European stock indexes closed generally lower, and the German DAX30 index fell 1.7%</p><p>Major European stock indexes closed generally lower on Wednesday, with Germany's DAX30 index falling 1.7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.14%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.98%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell 1%.</p><p>4. U.S. WTI crude oil futures closed down 1.77% on Wednesday, ending three consecutive gains</p><p>U.S. crude oil futures prices closed lower on Wednesday, ending three consecutive trading days of gains. The prospect of a weaker global economy has put pressure on oil prices. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $1.98, or 1.77%, to close at $109.78 per barrel.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 0.2%, hitting a two-week low</p><p>Gold futures prices in New York closed lower on Wednesday and hit their lowest closing price in two weeks, recording the third consecutive trading day of losses. The price of gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $3.70, or 0.2%, at $1,817.50 an ounce, the lowest closing price since June 14.</p><p>6. European natural gas rose 8% to a three-month high</p><p>European natural gas rebounded strongly. ICE British natural gas futures closed up 4.42% at 174.12 pence/kcal, breaking away from the lowest level since last Monday, June 13, which fell 3% on Tuesday; TTF benchmark Dutch natural gas futures closed up 8.03% at 139.588 euros/MWh, a new high since March 8 and a new high in more than three months after hitting new highs since March 11 last Wednesday and Thursday.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. The GDP of the United States in the first quarter was lowered again! The annualized quarterly rate decline expanded to 1.6%</p><p>On Wednesday (June 29th) local time, the latest report released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis once again lowered the growth rate of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter. Specific data show that in the first quarter of this year, the annualized quarterly rate of U.S. GDP fell by 1.6%, which is undoubtedly a huge blow compared with the 1.1% growth expected by economists. According to the report of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the weakness of personal consumption expenditure is the main reason for this downward adjustment. It is worth mentioning that this is the second downward revision of GDP in the first quarter. The quarterly GDP of the United States will be released three times. In the initial value report in April, the annualized quarterly rate of GDP fell by 1.4%; In the revised value report, this decline expanded to 1.5%. The report also pointed out that the record trade deficit dragged down the performance of the United States this quarter.</p><p>2. Powell says the U.S. economy is strong and the Fed can avoid recession</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said during a panel discussion at the European Central Bank's annual policy forum in Sintra, Portugal, on Wednesday that the U.S. economy is in \"strong shape\" and that the central bank can reduce inflation to 2% while maintaining a solid labor market, although the task has become more challenging in recent months. Raising interest rates without triggering a recession is \"our goal, and we believe there is a path to that,\" Powell said.</p><p>3. Democrats discuss cutting tax increases in the hope of getting Biden's economic package passed in the next few weeks</p><p>Democrats in the U.S. Senate are seeking to reduce the tax increase in President Joe Biden's economic package, hoping to reach an agreement with Senator Joe Manchin and get the plan passed in the coming weeks, people familiar with the matter said. The adjustments under consideration would weaken some of the tax increases passed by the House last year and could mean that both U.S. businesses and wealthy families end up with smaller tax increases than Biden and Democrats originally envisaged, people familiar with the matter said.</p><p>4. U.S. Supreme Court Justice Breyer will retire on the 30th, and his successor will be Jackson nominated by Biden</p><p>On Wednesday local time, the U.S. Supreme Court announced that liberal Justice Stephen Breyer will officially retire on the 30th. He will be succeeded by Ketanji Brown Jackson, the first African-American female justice in American history and nominated by Biden. Breyer, 83, has served on the federal Supreme Court since 1994. He is considered a liberal of the Supreme Court and one of only three liberal justices. Therefore, even after the substitution, the ratio of conservative to liberal justices in the U.S. Supreme Court is still 6: 3, which has not changed the current pattern.</p><p>5. US poll: 78% of Americans believe that Biden is leading the United States on the wrong path</p><p>According to a poll conducted jointly by Morning Consult and Politico, 78% of Americans who participated in the poll believe that President Biden is leading the United States on the wrong path in policy. In a poll conducted in late February 2021 after Biden took office, 51% of respondents thought the United States was heading in the wrong direction. This figure has increased by 27 percentage points since then.</p><p>6. A coalition of U.S. environmental organizations files a lawsuit against the Biden administration for its first sale of onshore oil and gas drilling leases</p><p>On June 29, local time, a coalition of 10 environmental organizations filed a lawsuit against the Biden administration for its first sale of onshore oil and gas drilling leases on the evening of the 28th. The environmental groups say the lease violates the U.S. National Environmental Policy Act and the federal Land Policy and Management Act, noting that additional drilling will lead to climate change.</p><p>7. It is reported that the White House is analyzing what will happen to the economy when oil prices rise to $200</p><p>On Wednesday, Eastern Time, according to media reports, the Biden administration has begun to analyze and simulate what kind of damage it will cause to the economy when international oil prices reach US $200 per barrel. As the media commented: Economic officials are not studying Managing an economy in its natural development, moving from recovery to a period of steady growth, is analyzing and simulating the worst-case scenario, such as what the impact of oil prices reaching US $200 per barrel may mean for the economy.</p><p>8. The United States hopes that OPEC will have a second step to follow up after increasing production in the near future</p><p>Amos Hochstein, senior adviser on energy security at the U.S. State Department, said in an interview that the United States welcomed OPEC's decision to accelerate oil supply growth earlier this month, calling it a \"major change in attitude.\" Hochstein hopes that OPEC's plan to increase production by 648,000 barrels per day in July and August is the \"first step\" in its supply policy, followed by a \"second step\". The United States is in talks with OPEC countries that still have spare production capacity to assess whether it is necessary to further release strategic oil reserves after October.</p><p>9. The Doha talks between the United States, Iran and the European Union ended without achieving expected results</p><p>On the evening of June 29th, local time, the negotiations between Iran, the United States and the European Union aimed at lifting the sanctions against Iran by the United States ended in Doha, Qatar. Mora, Deputy Secretary-General of the European External Action Service, said, \"We have not made the progress we hoped for before, but we will continue to work hard to get the Iranian nuclear deal back on track.\"</p><p>10. EU negotiators reach agreement on fund transfer supervision in encryption software anti-money laundering rules</p><p>The European Parliament said EU negotiators reached an agreement on the regulation of money transfers in anti-money laundering rules for crypto software.</p><p>11. The German cabinet is reviewing the draft budget for 2023 and plans to regain compliance with the \"debt brake\" principle</p><p>According to German government insiders on June 29, local time, the federal cabinet is reviewing the 2023 budget. Influenced by COVID-19 pandemic, Germany has broken the \"debt brake\" principle for three consecutive years. According to the draft budget submitted by Federal Finance Minister Lindner, the total amount of German government loans will drop to around 17 billion euros in 2023. Therefore, Germany plans to regain compliance with the \"debt brake\" principle from next year.</p><p>12. German inflation slowed in June, and the government's temporary relief measures eased inflationary pressures</p><p>German inflation unexpectedly slowed as the government's temporary relief measures eased pressure on households and businesses squeezed by a record surge in prices. Fuel duty cuts and public transport cost discounts helped reduce consumer price increases to 8.2% in June from 8.7% in May, data showed Wednesday. Analysts surveyed had expected a rise of 8.8%.</p><p>13. President of Finland: Finland and Sweden will sign the \"Accession\" Protocol by July 5 at the latest</p><p>On June 29, local time, Finnish President Niinisto stated at a press conference held in Madrid, Spain that Finland and Sweden will sign the \"accession\" protocol on July 5 at the latest.</p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine</p><p>1. Putin: Russia's special military operations against Ukraine may change at the tactical level</p><p>On June 29, local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the goals of Russia's special military operations against Ukraine will not change, but there may be changes at the tactical level. Putin said that Western countries' call for Ukraine to continue fighting confirms Russia's conjecture that what Western countries want to protect is not Ukraine's interests, but their own interests. Putin also said that if NATO deploys military forces in Finland and Sweden, Russia will have to take countermeasures.</p><p>2. The U.S. Department of Justice says it has frozen $330 billion in assets of Russian oligarchs and banks</p><p>The U.S. and its allies have frozen more than $30 billion in the assets of Russian oligarchs, the Justice Department said, and the relevant task force has frozen Russia<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>The funding is about $300 billion. The U.S.-formed task force on Russian elites, proxies and oligarchs (REPO) has released new details about the seizure of high-value properties owned by Russian business giants. They tried to seize the luxury goods of these giants, including yachts worth hundreds of millions of dollars, to exert continued political pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Ministry of Justice believes that the work of the task force is \"unfinished\" and that the task force will continue to track Russian assets in the coming months.</p><p>Russian officials have responded to the continuous seizure and freezing of Russian assets by Western countries. A spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry warned on Wednesday that Russia has the right to take retaliatory measures, such as confiscating assets owned by western countries in Russia.</p><p>3. Ukrainian President Zelensky announced the interruption of diplomatic relations with Syria</p><p>After Syria announced its recognition of the sovereignty and independence of the \"Luhansk People's Republic\" and the \"Donetsk People's Republic\", Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that evening the interruption of diplomatic relations between the country and Syria. Zelensky said in a routine video on the 29th that \"there will no longer be relations between Ukraine and Syria\" and that Ukraine's sanctions against Syria will also be stronger.</p><p>4. British Prime Minister Johnson promises to provide another 1 billion pounds of military aid to Ukraine</p><p>On June 29, local time, at the NATO summit held in Madrid, the capital of Spain, British Prime Minister Johnson promised to provide another 1 billion pounds worth of military assistance to Ukraine, which made the UK's military assistance to Ukraine during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Aid funds reached 2.3 billion pounds. The funds will be used to develop air defense systems, unmanned aerial vehicles, electronic warfare equipment, etc.</p><p>5. International rating agency Fitch: If Russian natural gas supply is cut off, some Central and Eastern European countries will be hit hard</p><p>Fitch, an international rating agency, said in a report that if Russia's natural gas supply to the EU is suddenly interrupted, it will have a serious impact on some Central and Eastern European countries, including high inflation and negative economic growth. According to the report, if Russian natural gas supply is cut off, Slovakia, Hungary and the Czech Republic will be most seriously affected because these countries are highly dependent on Russian natural gas and lack alternative products. Poland, Lithuania and Romania are less affected, because these countries have basically found alternative energy sources or achieved domestic production.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2247028328\" target=\"_blank\">Buffett's heavily invested food giant breaks up with supermarket chains: won't let price increases? Off the shelves!</a></p><p>According to local media reports in the UK, many products of Kraft Heinz, an American food producer, have been removed from Tesco, a British supermarket chain, due to the collapse of the talk between the company and the supermarket over price increases. As we all know, Kraft Heinz is also Buffett's favorite stock.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>At present, it holds 26.61% of the company's shares and is the largest shareholder of the company. A Tesco spokesman said righteously that it was a pity that this change would lead to many products being removed from the shelves, but supermarkets would not pass on unreasonable price increases to our customers, and consumers also had \"many alternative choices\". With UK household budgets under increasing pressure, supermarkets are more responsible than ever to ensure users get the best value possible.</p><p>2. Tesla's weekly output in Texas reaches 5,000 vehicles</p><p>According to automotive news website Electrek, citing people familiar with the matter, Tesla has managed to increase production at its Gigafactory in Texas, which can deliver up to 5,000 vehicles per week. This factory also produces a long-range version of the Model Y, which helps increase overall production. Tesla aims to increase weekly production to 10,000 vehicles by the end of the year.</p><p>3. Eli Lilly was approved to conduct clinical trials of Donanemab in the treatment of early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease in China</p><p>Eli Lilly China announced that its clinical trial application for Donanemab injection in China has been approved by the National Medical Products Administration. This is a global study evaluating the safety and efficacy of Donanemab in the treatment of early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease, including mild cognitive impairment due to Alzheimer's disease, and mild Alzheimer's disease.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2247022295\" target=\"_blank\">Pfizer signs a US $3.2 billion vaccine order with the US government: the price per dose is about US $30.50</a></p><p>On Wednesday local time, Pfizer said it had signed a new vaccine supply agreement with the U.S. government. The U.S. government will pay Pfizer US $3.2 billion to purchase 105 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine, which are expected to be delivered as early as the end of this summer.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UGAZ":"三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)",".DJI":"道琼斯","DGAZ":"三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UNG":"美国天然气基金"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120000025","content_text":"摘要：①隔夜美股涨跌不一，道指涨0.27%，纳指跌0.03%，标普500跌0.07%，中概股普跌；②欧美三位央行行长齐声表态遏制通胀是现阶段的首要任务；③美司法部称已冻结3300亿美元俄罗斯寡头和银行资产；④乌克兰总统泽连斯基宣布中断与叙利亚的外交关系。海外市场1、美股周三收盘涨跌不一大型科技股涨跌各异美股周三收盘涨跌不一，美联储主席鲍威尔认为美国经济形势强劲，可以承受加息，但不能保证经济软着陆。截至收盘，纳指跌0.03%，报11177.89点；道指涨0.27%，报31029.31点；标普500指数跌0.07%，报3818.83点，连续两日处于熊市区间，收盘较今年1月3日的纪录高位跌超20%，势将截至本周四录得1970年以来最大的半年度跌幅。纳指收跌0.03%，报11177.89点，和标普均连跌三日，继续跌离上周五所创的6月9日以来高位。大型科技股涨跌各异，亚马逊上涨1.4%，苹果、微软涨超1%，特斯拉跌1.79%，Meta上涨2%。2、热门中概股收盘大多走低蔚来跌超2%热门中概股周三收盘大多走低，途牛、新东方涨超9%，携程涨2.5%，京东涨0.5%，阿里巴巴跌0.6%，哔哩哔哩跌4.3%，拼多多涨0.2%，贝壳收平。新能源汽车中，蔚来回应灰熊做空称报告存在“大量错误”，其美股跌2.4%。理想汽车涨2.7%，小鹏汽车跌1.7%。3、欧股主要指数收盘普跌德国DAX30指数跌1.7%欧股主要指数周三收盘普跌，德国DAX30指数跌1.7%，英国富时100指数跌0.14%，法国CAC40指数跌0.98%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌1%。4、美国WTI原油期货周三收跌1.77% 结束三连涨美国原油期货价格周三收跌，结束了此前连续三个交易日上涨的行情。全球经济疲软的前景令油价受到压力。纽约商品交易所8月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格收跌1.98美元，跌幅为1.77%，报收于每桶109.78美元。5、纽约黄金期货收跌0.2% 创两周新低纽约黄金期货价格周三收跌并创两周来的最低收盘价，录得连续第三个交易日录得跌幅。纽约商品交易所8月交割的黄金期货价格收跌3.70美元，跌幅为0.2%，报收于每盎司1817.50美元，创6月14日以来的最低收盘价。6、欧洲天然气涨8% 创三个月新高欧洲天然气强劲反弹。ICE英国天然气期货收涨4.42%，报174.12便士/千卡，脱离周二跌3%所创的6月13日上上周一以来低位；TTF基准荷兰天然气期货收涨8.03%，报139.588欧元/兆瓦时，创3月8日以来新高，继上周三和周四创3月11日以来新高后又创三个多月新高。国际宏观1、美国一季度GDP再遭下调！年化季率降幅扩大至1.6%当地时间周三（6月29日），美国经济分析局公布的最新报告再次下调了美国一季度国内生产总值（GDP）增速。具体数据显示，今年第一季度美国GDP年化季率下降了1.6%，这一降幅相比于经济学家预计的增长1.1%无疑是个巨大的打击。经济分析局的报告称，个人消费支出的疲软是本次下调的主要原因。值得一提的是，这已是一季度GDP的第二次下修。美国季度GDP会公布三次，4月份的初值报告中，GDP年化季率下降1.4%；在修正值报告中，这个降幅扩大至1.5%。报告还指出，创记录的贸易逆差拖累美国这一季的表现。2、鲍威尔称美国经济强劲 美联储可避免衰退美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三在葡萄牙辛特拉举行的欧洲央行年度政策论坛上的小组讨论中表示，美国经济状况“强劲”，央行可以在维持稳固劳动力市场的同时将通胀率降至2%，虽然最近几个月这个任务变得更具挑战性。鲍威尔说，在不引发经济衰退的情况下提高利率是“我们的目标，我们也相信有实现这一目标的途径”。3、民主党讨论削减加税幅度 希望使拜登一揽子经济计划未来几周获通过知情人士透露，美国参议院民主党人正在寻求降低总统乔·拜登经济一揽子计划中的加税幅度，希望以此与参议员乔·曼钦达成一致，并使该计划未来几周获得通过。知情人士说，正在考虑的调整将削弱众议院去年通过的一些加税措施，可能意味着美国企业和富有家庭最终的加税幅度都小于拜登和民主党最初的设想。4、美最高法院大法官布雷耶将于30日退休 继任者为拜登提名的杰克逊当地时间周三，美国联邦最高法院宣布，自由派大法官斯蒂芬·布雷耶(Stephen Breyer)将于30日正式退休，接任他的将是美国历史上第一位非裔女性大法官、拜登提名的凯坦吉·布朗·杰克逊(Ketanji Brown Jackson)。布雷耶现年83岁，自1994年以来一直在联邦最高法院任职，他被认为是最高法院的自由派，也是仅有的三名自由派大法官之一。因此，即使在换人之后，在美国最高法院中，保守派与自由派大法官的比例依旧为6:3，并没有改变当前的格局。5、美民调：78%的美国人认为拜登带领美国走错了道路美国晨间咨询公司（Morning Consult）与《政治报》（Politico）联合进行的一项民意调查显示，有78%参与调查的美国人认为总统拜登在政策上带领美国走错了道路。拜登上任后2021年2月下旬的民意调查中，有51%的受访者认为美国朝着错误的方向前进。这项数据自那以来增加了27个百分点。6、美环保组织联盟对拜登政府首次出售陆上油气钻探租约提起诉讼当地时间6月29日，由10个环保组织组成的联盟于28日晚间对拜登政府首次出售陆上油气钻探租约提起诉讼。这些环保组织表示，该租约违反了美国《国家环境政策法案》和《联邦土地政策和管理法案》，并指出额外的钻井将导致气候变化。7、报道称白宫正分析油价涨到200美元经济会怎样美东时间周三，据媒体报道称，拜登政府已经开始分析和模拟当国际油价达到每桶200美元之时将会对经济造成什么样的破坏，正如媒体所评论的：经济官员们并非在研究管理一个处于自然发展中的经济，从复苏进入一个稳定的增长期，而是在分析和模拟最坏的情况，比如油价达到每桶200美元的冲击对经济可能意味着什么。8、美国希望OPEC+近期增产后将有第二步跟进美国国务院能源安全高级顾问Amos Hochstein接受采访时表示，美国欢迎OPEC+本月早些时候加快石油供应增速的决定，称这是“态度的重大转变”。Hochstein希望OPEC+ 7月和8月增产64.8万桶/天的计划是其供应政策的“第一步”，随后将有“第二步”跟进。美国正在与仍然有闲置产能的OPEC国家会谈，将评估是否有必要在10月份以后进一步释放战略石油储备。9、美、伊、欧盟多哈会谈结束 未获得预期成果当地时间6月29日晚，伊朗、美国、欧盟三方旨在美国解除对伊制裁的谈判在卡塔尔首都多哈结束。欧盟对外行动署副秘书长莫拉表示， “我们尚未取得此前希望的进展，但我们将继续努力使伊核协议重回正轨。”10、欧盟谈判代表就加密软件反洗钱规则中的资金转移监管达成协议欧洲议会表示，欧盟谈判代表就加密软件反洗钱规则中的资金转移监管达成协议。11、德国内阁正在审议2023年财政预算草案 计划重新遵守“债务刹车”原则据德国政府内部人士当地时间6月29日透露，联邦内阁正在审议2023年的财政预算。受新冠疫情影响，德国已经连续三年打破“债务刹车”原则。根据联邦财政部长林德纳提交的预算草案，2023年，德国政府的贷款总额将下降至170亿欧元左右。因此，德国计划从明年开始重新遵守“债务刹车”原则。12、德国6月份通胀有所放缓 政府的临时救济措施减轻了通胀压力德国通胀意外放缓，因为政府的临时救济措施减轻了受到物价创纪录飙升挤压的家庭和企业的压力。周三公布的数据显示，燃油税下调和公共交通成本折扣帮助6月份消费者价格涨幅从5月的8.7%降至8.2%。接受调查的分析师之前预估为上升8.8%。13、芬兰总统：芬兰和瑞典最迟将于7月5日签署“入约”议定书当地时间6月29日，芬兰总统尼尼斯托在西班牙马德里举行的新闻发布会上表示，芬兰和瑞典最迟将于7月5日签署“入约”议定书。俄乌局势1、普京：俄对乌特别军事行动在战术层面可能有变化当地时间6月29日，俄罗斯总统普京表示，俄罗斯对乌克兰的特别军事行动目标不会改变，而在战术层面可能有变化。普京表示，西方国家呼吁乌克兰继续战斗证实了俄罗斯方面的猜想，即西方国家想保护的并不是乌克兰的利益，而是他们自身的利益。普京还表示，如果北约在芬兰和瑞典部署军事力量，俄罗斯方面将不得不采取应对措施。2、美司法部称已冻结3300亿美元俄罗斯寡头和银行资产美国司法部称，美国及其盟友已冻结了超过300亿美元的俄罗斯寡头的资产，相关专案组已经冻结了俄罗斯中央银行资金约3000亿美元。美国组建的俄罗斯精英、代理人和寡头（REPO）专案组发布了关于扣押俄罗斯商业巨头拥有的高价值财产的新细节。他们试图扣押这些巨头的奢侈品，包括价值数亿美元的游艇，对俄罗斯总统普京持续施加政治压力。司法部认为专案组工作“尚未完成”，在未来几个月里，专案组将继续追踪俄罗斯资产。针对西方国家不断扣押和冻结俄罗斯资产的行为，俄罗斯官方作出了回应。俄罗斯外交部发言人周三警告称，俄罗斯有权采取报复措施，比如同样可以没收西方国家在俄罗斯拥有的资产。3、乌克兰总统泽连斯基宣布中断与叙利亚的外交关系在叙利亚宣布承认“卢甘斯克人民共和国”和“顿涅茨克人民共和国”的主权和独立后，乌克兰总统泽连斯基当天晚间宣布中断该国与叙利亚的外交关系。泽连斯基在29日的例行视频中表示，“乌克兰和叙利亚之间将不再有关系”，并称乌克兰对叙利亚的制裁力度也将更大。4、英国首相约翰逊承诺再向乌克兰提供10亿英镑军事援助当地时间6月29日，在西班牙首都马德里举办的北约峰会上，英国首相约翰逊承诺将再向乌克兰提供价值10亿英镑的军事援助，这使得英国在本次俄乌冲突期间为乌克兰提供的军事援助资金达到23亿英镑。这笔资金将用于研发防空系统、无人飞行器、电子战设备等。5、国际评级机构惠誉：若俄天然气断供 部分中东欧国家将受重创国际评级机构惠誉在一份报告中说，如果俄罗斯对欧盟的天然气供应突然中断，将对部分中东欧国家产生严重影响，包括高通胀、经济负增长等。报告称，如果俄罗斯天然气断供，斯洛伐克、匈牙利和捷克所受的影响将最为严重，因为这些国家高度依赖俄罗斯天然气、缺少可替代产品。而波兰、立陶宛和罗马尼亚受到的影响较小，因为上述国家基本找到了替代能源或实现国内生产。公司新闻1、巴菲特重仓的食品巨头与连锁超市闹掰：不让涨价？下架！据英国当地媒体报道，由于美国食品生产商卡夫·亨氏与英国连锁超市乐购在涨价问题上谈崩，该公司的许多产品已经从该超市下架。众所周知，卡夫·亨氏也是巴菲特的爱股，伯克希尔目前持有公司26.61%的股权，是公司第一大股东。乐购发言人义正言辞地表示，很遗憾这一变化会导致许多产品下架，但超市不会将不合理的价格上涨转嫁给我们的客户，同时消费者也有“很多的替代选择”。随着英国家庭预算面临越来越大的压力，超市比以往任何时候都更有责任确保用户获得最佳的价值。2、特斯拉得州周产量达5000辆据汽车新闻网站Electrek援引知情人士消息称，特斯拉已经设法提高了其位于得州的超级工厂的产量，每周可交付多达5000辆汽车。这个工厂还生产长续航版Model Y，有助于提高整体产量。特斯拉的目标是在年底前将周产量提高到1万辆。3、礼来获批在中国开展Donanemab治疗早期症状性阿尔茨海默病的临床试验礼来中国宣布，其在中国申报的Donanemab注射液临床试验申请获得了国家药品监督管理局的批准。这是一项评估Donanemab治疗早期症状性阿尔茨海默病，包括阿尔茨海默病所致的轻度认知障碍以及轻度阿尔茨海默病的安全性和有效性的全球研究。4、辉瑞与美国政府签订32亿美元疫苗大单：每剂价格约为30.50美元当地时间周三，辉瑞公司表示，已同美国政府签订新的疫苗供应协议，美国政府将向辉瑞支付32亿美元，购买1.05亿剂新冠疫苗，预计最早将于今年夏末交付。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UGAZ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"QGmain":0.9,"DGAZ":0.9,"NGmain":0.9,"UNG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9046947533,"gmtCreate":1656293028522,"gmtModify":1676535800161,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9046947533","repostId":"1165038670","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165038670","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1656285455,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1165038670?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-27 07:17","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"This week's preview | Powell joins hands with heavy U.S. inflation data PCE is coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165038670","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"本周（6.27-7.1）重磅财经事件：经济数据方面：美国5月批发库存月率初值、美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率终值、中国官方制造业PMI、美国5月核心PCE物价指数、美国初请失业金人数、中国6月财新制造","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Major financial events this week (6.27-7.1):</b></p><p><b>Economic data:</b>The initial monthly rate of wholesale inventory in the United States in May, the final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the United States in the first quarter, China's official manufacturing PMI, the core PCE price index in the United States in May, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States, and China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in June will be announced one after another.<b>Financial report:</b>Ctrip, Nike, Micron Technology, etc. will release earnings reports.<b>In terms of events:</b>Friday is the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day, and trading in Hong Kong Stock Connect/A Stock Connect will be suspended; The NATO summit opens on Tuesday and lasts for two days; Tencent held the SPARK 2022 Tencent Game Conference on Monday. Furthermore,<b>This week, continue to pay attention to the speeches of Fed Chairman Powell, St. Louis Fed President Bullard, San Francisco Fed President Daly and many other Fed officials.</b>Get a glimpse of the Fed's attitude towards the current economic situation and monetary policy path.<b>Keywords for Monday, June 27: China's annual profit rate of industrial enterprises above designated size in May, U.S. preliminary monthly rate of durable goods orders in May, U.S. EIA crude oil inventory changes for the week</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b1765349fac5dcc348a9902910c4cfd\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a8bab3b5a4c455ea1531c5ce282017\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Monday,<b>As for economic data,</b>China will announce the annual profit rate of industrial enterprises above designated size in China in May; The initial monthly rate of U.S. durable goods orders in May and the changes in U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending June 17 were released.</p><p>U.S. durable goods orders rose less than expected in April. Institutional analysis believes that companies are sticking to capital expenditure plans as they seek to increase productivity to reduce the burden of high inflation and tight labor markets. However, it is unclear whether companies will reconsider the current pace of investment later this year amid rising interest rates and expectations of cooling economic activity. On June 27, the initial monthly rate of U.S. durable goods orders in May will be announced.<b>The current market expectation is 0.4%, which is lower than the previous value of 0.5%.</b>In addition, the U.S. Energy Information Administration updated the delayed data.</p><p><b>In terms of events, investors can pay attention to the SPARK 2022 Tencent Game Conference held by Tencent.</b></p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00973\">L 'OCCITANE</a>The financial report will be released on the same day,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">Ctrip.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>Will release earnings after hours.</p><p><b>In terms of new shares,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02391\">Tuya Smart-W</a>The subscription of new shares is over.</p><p><b>Important meetings,</b>Under many crises, the G-7 summit was held from June 26th to 28th at the Elmau Palace near Munich, the capital of Bavaria, Germany. The topics of this summit involve topics such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, climate change, energy crisis, food security, and economic recovery. Observers pointed out that as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, the Group of Seven will face the most severe challenges and crises in many years at this meeting.</p><p><b>Keywords for Tuesday, June 28: U.S. May wholesale inventory monthly preliminary value, U.S. April S&P/CS 20 major city housing price index, NATO summit opening</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7557ec0a9888dab809b78bb843517aa4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Tuesday,<b>As for economic data,</b>The United States will announce the initial monthly rate of wholesale inventory in the United States in May, the housing price index of S&P/CS20 major cities in the United States in April, etc.</p><p>U.S. wholesale inventory data reflects changes in the total value of items in wholesalers' inventories, which are resources that are temporarily idle to meet future needs; As an intermediary between manufacturers/importers and retailers, wholesalers' inventory can be regarded as one of the leading indicators of the economy. The rapid growth of wholesale inventory shows that wholesalers are optimistic about the economic prospects.<b>On June 28, the initial monthly rate of wholesale inventories in the United States in May will be announced, and it is not expected to rise sharply as the epidemic drags down the economy.</b><b>In terms of events,</b>The NATO summit opens for two days. It is expected that the discussion will focus on the Ukraine issue, and investors also need to pay attention to it. The NATO summit will be held in Madrid, Spain from June 29th to 30th. NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg once called it a \"historic\" opportunity to strengthen NATO in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. According to foreign media reports, the NATO summit is expected to discuss sending more troops to areas in the eastern part of the EU bordering Russia and its ally Belarus. In addition, the summit is also expected to discuss Turkey's opposition to Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00558\">Lijin Technology</a>Release earnings report.</p><p><b>In terms of new shares,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09955\">Zhiyun Health</a>The subscription of new shares is over.</p><p><b>Keywords on Wednesday, June 29: U.S. API crude oil inventory changes for the week ending June 24, U.S. real GDP annualized quarterly rate final value in the first quarter, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell/San Francisco Fed President Daly/Cleveland Fed President Mester delivered a speech</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d009e1fef305f66099330a861e47aa83\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"835\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bfa486b4dba1768a04e004e49a1c89f\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On Wednesday,<b>As for economic data,</b>The United States will announce the final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the first quarter of the United States.</p><p>The three-year compound growth rate of real GDP in the United States in the first quarter of 2022 fell from 1.9% to 1.56%. Among them, imports greatly dragged down economic growth in the first quarter, with a three-year compound growth rate of 3.96%; However, the growth rate of personal consumption continued to rise, recording 2.38%, which was higher than the level of the whole year of 2021; The growth rates of other sub-items all fell slightly, the compound growth rate of exports continued to be negative, and the compound growth rate of private investment declined the most.<b>On June 29, the final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the first quarter of the United States will be announced, which is expected to remain relatively low.</b>Furthermore,<b>Changes in API crude oil inventories in the United States for the week ending June 24 are also worthy of investors' attention.</b></p><p>API crude oil inventories in the United States unexpectedly increased by 5.607 million barrels in the week to June 17, the third consecutive week of increase and the largest increase since the week of April 8, 2022. It is expected to decrease by 1.433 million barrels, and the previous value was an increase of 736 million barrels. Ten thousand barrels. Gasoline inventories also increased for the first time since March.<b>The latest cycle data will be released on June 29, and it is expected to continue to record increases.</b><b>In terms of events,</b>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey and Bank for International Settlements President Carstens spoke at the ECB Forum.</p><p>2022 FOMC voting committee and Cleveland Fed President Mester participated in a panel discussion on inflation expectations;</p><p>2024 FOMC voting committee member and San Francisco Fed President Daly delivered a speech.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06110\">Topsters</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B Home</a>Will report earnings.</p><p><b>In terms of new shares,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02372\">WELLICH</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02167\">Tianrunyun</a>The winning results will be announced.</p><p><b>Keywords for Thursday, June 30: China's official manufacturing PMI, U.S. core PCE price index in May, U.S. initial jobless claims, St. Louis Fed President Bullard's speech, A-share trading suspension</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c23264ecc85938e74492769ba14d465f\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1bf4e1d47d9e2493aedb333c5a9a184\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Thursday,<b>As for economic data,</b>China will release its official manufacturing PMI for June.</p><p>China's official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data will be released on the last day of June.<b>It is expected that as the country gradually recovers from the epidemic, this data is expected to pick up further.</b>The United States will release data such as the annual rate of the core PCE price index in May and the number of initial jobless claims for the week. Wherein,<b>The core PCE price index in the United States in May is the top priority.</b></p><p><b>In terms of events,</b>Investors need to focus on the speech of the 2022 FOMC voting committee and St. Louis Fed President Bullard.</p><p><b>In addition, due to the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, northbound trading is closed.</b></p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>Will release earnings after hours.</b></p><p><b>Keywords for Friday, July 1: Hong Kong stocks closed, Hong Kong Stock Connect/A-share Connect trading suspension, China's June Caixin manufacturing PMI, U.S. June Markit manufacturing PMI final value, U.S. June ISM manufacturing PMI</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1bf4e1d47d9e2493aedb333c5a9a184\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Friday was<b>On the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day, and trading in Hong Kong Stock Connect/A Stock Connect will be suspended.</b></p><p>As for economic data,<b>Investors need to pay attention to China's June Caixin manufacturing PMI, the final value of the U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI in June, and the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI in June.</b></p><p>In addition to the above key data and major events, investors also need to pay attention to the development of the global epidemic, which is expected to affect future financial market trends.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis week's preview | Powell joins hands with heavy U.S. inflation data PCE is coming\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-27 07:17</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Major financial events this week (6.27-7.1):</b></p><p><b>Economic data:</b>The initial monthly rate of wholesale inventory in the United States in May, the final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the United States in the first quarter, China's official manufacturing PMI, the core PCE price index in the United States in May, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States, and China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in June will be announced one after another.<b>Financial report:</b>Ctrip, Nike, Micron Technology, etc. will release earnings reports.<b>In terms of events:</b>Friday is the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day, and trading in Hong Kong Stock Connect/A Stock Connect will be suspended; The NATO summit opens on Tuesday and lasts for two days; Tencent held the SPARK 2022 Tencent Game Conference on Monday. Furthermore,<b>This week, continue to pay attention to the speeches of Fed Chairman Powell, St. Louis Fed President Bullard, San Francisco Fed President Daly and many other Fed officials.</b>Get a glimpse of the Fed's attitude towards the current economic situation and monetary policy path.<b>Keywords for Monday, June 27: China's annual profit rate of industrial enterprises above designated size in May, U.S. preliminary monthly rate of durable goods orders in May, U.S. EIA crude oil inventory changes for the week</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b1765349fac5dcc348a9902910c4cfd\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a8bab3b5a4c455ea1531c5ce282017\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Monday,<b>As for economic data,</b>China will announce the annual profit rate of industrial enterprises above designated size in China in May; The initial monthly rate of U.S. durable goods orders in May and the changes in U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending June 17 were released.</p><p>U.S. durable goods orders rose less than expected in April. Institutional analysis believes that companies are sticking to capital expenditure plans as they seek to increase productivity to reduce the burden of high inflation and tight labor markets. However, it is unclear whether companies will reconsider the current pace of investment later this year amid rising interest rates and expectations of cooling economic activity. On June 27, the initial monthly rate of U.S. durable goods orders in May will be announced.<b>The current market expectation is 0.4%, which is lower than the previous value of 0.5%.</b>In addition, the U.S. Energy Information Administration updated the delayed data.</p><p><b>In terms of events, investors can pay attention to the SPARK 2022 Tencent Game Conference held by Tencent.</b></p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00973\">L 'OCCITANE</a>The financial report will be released on the same day,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">Ctrip.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>Will release earnings after hours.</p><p><b>In terms of new shares,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02391\">Tuya Smart-W</a>The subscription of new shares is over.</p><p><b>Important meetings,</b>Under many crises, the G-7 summit was held from June 26th to 28th at the Elmau Palace near Munich, the capital of Bavaria, Germany. The topics of this summit involve topics such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, climate change, energy crisis, food security, and economic recovery. Observers pointed out that as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, the Group of Seven will face the most severe challenges and crises in many years at this meeting.</p><p><b>Keywords for Tuesday, June 28: U.S. May wholesale inventory monthly preliminary value, U.S. April S&P/CS 20 major city housing price index, NATO summit opening</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7557ec0a9888dab809b78bb843517aa4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Tuesday,<b>As for economic data,</b>The United States will announce the initial monthly rate of wholesale inventory in the United States in May, the housing price index of S&P/CS20 major cities in the United States in April, etc.</p><p>U.S. wholesale inventory data reflects changes in the total value of items in wholesalers' inventories, which are resources that are temporarily idle to meet future needs; As an intermediary between manufacturers/importers and retailers, wholesalers' inventory can be regarded as one of the leading indicators of the economy. The rapid growth of wholesale inventory shows that wholesalers are optimistic about the economic prospects.<b>On June 28, the initial monthly rate of wholesale inventories in the United States in May will be announced, and it is not expected to rise sharply as the epidemic drags down the economy.</b><b>In terms of events,</b>The NATO summit opens for two days. It is expected that the discussion will focus on the Ukraine issue, and investors also need to pay attention to it. The NATO summit will be held in Madrid, Spain from June 29th to 30th. NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg once called it a \"historic\" opportunity to strengthen NATO in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. According to foreign media reports, the NATO summit is expected to discuss sending more troops to areas in the eastern part of the EU bordering Russia and its ally Belarus. In addition, the summit is also expected to discuss Turkey's opposition to Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00558\">Lijin Technology</a>Release earnings report.</p><p><b>In terms of new shares,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09955\">Zhiyun Health</a>The subscription of new shares is over.</p><p><b>Keywords on Wednesday, June 29: U.S. API crude oil inventory changes for the week ending June 24, U.S. real GDP annualized quarterly rate final value in the first quarter, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell/San Francisco Fed President Daly/Cleveland Fed President Mester delivered a speech</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d009e1fef305f66099330a861e47aa83\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"835\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bfa486b4dba1768a04e004e49a1c89f\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On Wednesday,<b>As for economic data,</b>The United States will announce the final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the first quarter of the United States.</p><p>The three-year compound growth rate of real GDP in the United States in the first quarter of 2022 fell from 1.9% to 1.56%. Among them, imports greatly dragged down economic growth in the first quarter, with a three-year compound growth rate of 3.96%; However, the growth rate of personal consumption continued to rise, recording 2.38%, which was higher than the level of the whole year of 2021; The growth rates of other sub-items all fell slightly, the compound growth rate of exports continued to be negative, and the compound growth rate of private investment declined the most.<b>On June 29, the final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the first quarter of the United States will be announced, which is expected to remain relatively low.</b>Furthermore,<b>Changes in API crude oil inventories in the United States for the week ending June 24 are also worthy of investors' attention.</b></p><p>API crude oil inventories in the United States unexpectedly increased by 5.607 million barrels in the week to June 17, the third consecutive week of increase and the largest increase since the week of April 8, 2022. It is expected to decrease by 1.433 million barrels, and the previous value was an increase of 736 million barrels. Ten thousand barrels. Gasoline inventories also increased for the first time since March.<b>The latest cycle data will be released on June 29, and it is expected to continue to record increases.</b><b>In terms of events,</b>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey and Bank for International Settlements President Carstens spoke at the ECB Forum.</p><p>2022 FOMC voting committee and Cleveland Fed President Mester participated in a panel discussion on inflation expectations;</p><p>2024 FOMC voting committee member and San Francisco Fed President Daly delivered a speech.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06110\">Topsters</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B Home</a>Will report earnings.</p><p><b>In terms of new shares,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02372\">WELLICH</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02167\">Tianrunyun</a>The winning results will be announced.</p><p><b>Keywords for Thursday, June 30: China's official manufacturing PMI, U.S. core PCE price index in May, U.S. initial jobless claims, St. Louis Fed President Bullard's speech, A-share trading suspension</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c23264ecc85938e74492769ba14d465f\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1bf4e1d47d9e2493aedb333c5a9a184\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Thursday,<b>As for economic data,</b>China will release its official manufacturing PMI for June.</p><p>China's official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data will be released on the last day of June.<b>It is expected that as the country gradually recovers from the epidemic, this data is expected to pick up further.</b>The United States will release data such as the annual rate of the core PCE price index in May and the number of initial jobless claims for the week. Wherein,<b>The core PCE price index in the United States in May is the top priority.</b></p><p><b>In terms of events,</b>Investors need to focus on the speech of the 2022 FOMC voting committee and St. Louis Fed President Bullard.</p><p><b>In addition, due to the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, northbound trading is closed.</b></p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>Will release earnings after hours.</b></p><p><b>Keywords for Friday, July 1: Hong Kong stocks closed, Hong Kong Stock Connect/A-share Connect trading suspension, China's June Caixin manufacturing PMI, U.S. June Markit manufacturing PMI final value, U.S. June ISM manufacturing PMI</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1bf4e1d47d9e2493aedb333c5a9a184\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Friday was<b>On the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day, and trading in Hong Kong Stock Connect/A Stock Connect will be suspended.</b></p><p>As for economic data,<b>Investors need to pay attention to China's June Caixin manufacturing PMI, the final value of the U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI in June, and the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI in June.</b></p><p>In addition to the above key data and major events, investors also need to pay attention to the development of the global epidemic, which is expected to affect future financial market trends.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d256e82db1d71c864259845ce1d069bf","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165038670","content_text":"本周（6.27-7.1）重磅财经事件：经济数据方面：美国5月批发库存月率初值、美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率终值、中国官方制造业PMI、美国5月核心PCE物价指数、美国初请失业金人数、中国6月财新制造业PMI将陆续公布。财报方面：携程网、耐克、美光科技等将发布财报。事件方面：周五为香港特别行政区成立纪念日，港股休市一日、港股通/A股通暂停交易；周二北约峰会开幕，为期两日；腾讯公司周一举行将SPARK 2022腾讯游戏发布会。此外，本周继续关注美联储主席鲍威尔、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德、旧金山联储主席戴利等多位美联储官员讲话，从中窥探美联储对当前经济形势和货币政策路径的态度。6月27日 周一关键词：中国5月规模以上工业企业利润年率、美国5月耐用品订单月率初值、 美国当周EIA原油库存变动周一，经济数据方面，中国将公布中国5月规模以上工业企业利润年率；美国5月耐用品订单月率初值、美国截至6月17日当周EIA原油库存变动出炉。美国耐用品订单4月增幅低于预期。机构分析后认为，企业正在坚持资本支出计划，因其寻求提高生产率，以减轻高通胀和劳动力市场紧张的负担。不过，在利率上升和经济活动预期降温的情况下，企业今年晚些时候是否会重新考虑当下的投资步伐，目前还不太清楚。6月27日将公布美国5月耐用品订单月率初值，目前市场预期为0.4%，低于0.5%的前值。此外，美国能源信息署更新推迟公布的数据。事件方面，投资者可关注腾讯公司举行的SPARK 2022腾讯游戏发布会。财报方面，欧舒丹将于当日发布财报，携程网、耐克将于盘后发布财报。新股方面，涂鸦智能-W新股申购结束。重要会议方面，重重危机之下，七国集团峰会即于6月26日至28日在德国巴伐利亚州首府慕尼黑附近的埃尔茂宫召开。本次峰会的议题涉及俄乌冲突、气候变化、能源危机、粮食安全、经济复苏等话题。观察人士指出，在俄乌冲突持续升级的背景下，七国集团在此次会议中将面临多年来最严峻的挑战和危机。6月28日 周二关键词：美国5月批发库存月率初值、美国4月S&P/CS20座大城市房价指数、北约峰会开幕周二，经济数据方面，美国将公布美国5月批发库存月率初值、美国4月S&P/CS20座大城市房价指数等。美国批发库存数据反映的是批发商库存中物品总价值的变动，是为了满足未来需要而暂时闲置的资源；批发商作为制造商/进口商及零售商之间的中间人，其库存情况可以作为经济先行指标之一，批发库存增长快说明批发商对经济前景看好。6月28日将公布美国5月批发库存月率初值，在疫情拖累经济的情况下料不会大涨。事件方面，北约峰会开幕，为期两日，预计讨论将集中在乌克兰问题上，投资者也需引起重视。北约峰会将在6月29日至30日于西班牙马德里举行。北约秘书长斯托尔滕贝格曾将其称之为在俄乌冲突背景下，加强北约的“历史性”机会。据外媒报道，此次北约峰会预计将讨论向欧盟东部与俄罗斯及其盟友白俄罗斯接壤的地区增兵。此外，峰会也有望就土耳其在瑞典和芬兰加入北约上的反对立场问题加以协商。财报方面，力劲科技发布财报。新股方面，智云健康新股申购结束。6月29日 周三关键字：美国截至6月24日当周API原油库存变动、美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率终值、美联储主席鲍威尔/旧金山联储主席戴利/克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特发表讲话周三，经济数据方面，美国将公布美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率终值。美国2022年一季度实际GDP三年复合增速从1.9%下滑至1.56%。其中，进口大幅拖累一季度经济增长，三年复合增速高达3.96%；但个人消费增速仍持续上行，录得2.38%，高于2021年全年水平；其余分项增速均小幅回落，出口复合增速持续处于负增长，私人投资复合增速下行幅度最大。6月29日将公布美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率终值，料维持相对低位。此外，美国截至6月24日当周API原油库存变动也值得投资者关注。美国至6月17日当周API原油库存意外大增560.7万桶，为连续第三周上升并且为2022年4月8日当周以来最大增幅，预期为减少143.3万桶，前值为增加73.6万桶。汽油库存也自3月以来首次增加。6月29日将公布最新周期的数据，料继续录得增加。事件方面，美联储主席鲍威尔、欧洲央行行长拉加德、英国央行行长贝利以及国际清算银行总裁卡斯腾斯在欧洲央行论坛上发表讲话。2022年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特参加一个有关通胀预期的小组讨论；2024年FOMC票委、旧金山联储主席戴利发表讲话。财报方面，滔搏、3B家居将公布财报。新股方面，伟立控股、天润云将公布中签结果。6月30日 周四关键词：中国官方制造业PMI、美国5月核心PCE物价指数、美国初请失业金人数、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德讲话、A股通暂停交易周四，经济数据方面，中国将发布6月官方制造业PMI。6月的最后一天将公布中国官方制造业和非制造业PMI数据，预计随着国内逐渐从疫情中恢复过来，本次数据有望进一步回升。美国将发布5月核心PCE物价指数年率、当周初请失业金人数等数据。其中，美国5月核心PCE物价指数是重中之重。事件方面，投资者需重点关注2022年FOMC票委、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德的讲话。此外，因香港特别行政区成立纪念日，北向交易关闭。财报方面，美光科技将于盘后发布财报。7月1日 周五关键词：港股休市、港股通/A股通暂停交易、中国6月财新制造业PMI、美国6月Markit制造业PMI终值、美国6月ISM制造业PMI周五为香港特别行政区成立纪念日，港股休市一日，港股通/A股通暂停交易。经济数据方面，投资者需关注中国6月财新制造业PMI、美国6月Markit制造业PMI终值、美国6月ISM制造业PMI。除了以上重点数据和大事件，投资者还需关注全球疫情发展，料影响未来金融市场走势。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":1,".IXIC":1,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9048430431,"gmtCreate":1656237434923,"gmtModify":1676535790701,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9048430431","repostId":"1122634027","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122634027","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"市场策略研究、热点问题观察、分享最新观点：美国与海外市场、H股、及中概股市场","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Kevin策略研究","id":"1090746012","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90"},"pubTimestamp":1656231072,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122634027?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-26 16:11","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Opinion | The historical relationship between recession risk and the bear market in US stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122634027","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"6月FOMC加息75bp后，衰退担忧明显升温。在当前快加息背景下美国经济后续陷入衰退也不算意外。那么，衰退风险对美股有何启示？有何经验值得借鉴？一、衰退风险多大？增长放缓是既定事实，衰退也有相当可能，","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>After the FOMC rate hike reached 75bp in June, recession concerns increased significantly. Under the current background of fast rate hike, it is not surprising that the U.S. economy will subsequently fall into recession. So, what does the recession risk mean for U.S. stocks? What experience is worth learning from?</p><p><b>1. What is the risk of recession? Slowing growth is a given fact, and a recession is quite possible, but the timing and depth of a recession are more important</b></p><p>U.S. growth and profits are already on a slowdown path, and a subsequent recession is also quite likely. Suddenly, rate hike itself will have a greater impact on demand.<b>Given the possibility of a slowdown or even a recession, the timing and depth of the recession are even more important</b>。<b>1) For recession time</b>, we estimate that the pressure on growth from tightening financial conditions may appear at the end of this year and early next year, not so soon.<b>2) For recession depth</b>The current relatively healthy balance sheet of the U.S. non-government sector indicates that at least it does not face a greater risk of debt crisis.</p><p><b>Second, the current \"correct\" question? If the probability of a deep recession is low, when the policy will retreat is a more meaningful question for the market</b></p><p>If the probability of a deep recession is small and will not come soon, the more meaningful question for the market is not whether there will be a recession, but when the policy will retreat.<b>Judging from the inflation and tightening path we calculate, it may correspond to the beginning of the fourth quarter after the third quarter</b>。 At this point, the market can enter the trading logic of bonds and growth. There are similarities between early 2019 and 1994.</p><p><b>3. Market impact under different degrees of recession: the average decline of mild recession is ~ 20%, and the valuation is supported by one standard deviation below</b></p><p>The United States has experienced 15 recessions since the 1920s. We divide the degree of recession by the decline of GDP. Compared with a deep recession (with a correction of more than 3%) and a mild recession, the former is usually accompanied by a balance sheet shock (such as 2008), so it lasts longer (13 months on average); The market decline was significantly larger and more sudden; Real estate finance is more sensitive to the degree of recession, and the growth of technology is smaller; The former valuation drag is greater and there is no support level, and the mild recession valuation can find support at one standard deviation below the mean.</p><p>This round of market decline from its high point has been equivalent to a mild recession (S&P 500 pullback/retracement 24%, Nasdaq 34%); The current dynamic valuation of 16.3 times is still 15 ~ 20% away from the support level of 13 times. We estimate that the reasonable level based on the 3.5% 10-year U.S. bond is around 14 times.</p><p><b>4. Is there any debt risk? The weak link of the US balance sheet</b></p><p>Except for government departments, the macro leverage level of financial and non-financial enterprises and residents in the United States is at a relatively healthy level, far lower than that of the 2008 financial crisis. This is also one of the main bases for us to judge that the probability of a deep recession like a debt crisis is low at present. Some weak links, such as high-yield bonds and consumer loans for low-and middle-income people, deserve attention.</p><p><b>Focus Discussion: Recession Risks in the U.S. Economy vs. Bear Market Pressure in the U.S. Market</b></p><p>After the Fed's \"temporary\" rate hike of 75bp at the June FOMC meeting (\"June FOMC: Radical and Forward Path or the Current\" Optimal Solution \"),<b>The logic of market trading rapidly switched from high inflation and rapid contraction to weak growth, and recession fears increased significantly.</b>Affected by this, the 10-year US Treasury yields once dropped by around 3% from a high of 3.5%. At the same time, the higher gold-copper ratio last week, the sharp drop in oil prices, and the growth-style Nasdaq leading the gains may also be related to this expectation.</p><p><b>In the short term, we don't think the market's response to recession fears is excessive. However, it is also an indisputable fact that the current growth of the United States is gradually slowing down, and it is not surprising that it will subsequently fall into recession under the current background of rapid rate hike.</b>So, what does the recession risk mean for U.S. stocks and Fed policy? What experience in history is worth learning from? We will analyze it specifically in this article.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/334e4412ff2824eef6c9d55081154272\" tg-width=\"1003\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1. How big is the risk of recession? Slowing growth is a given fact, and a recession is quite possible, but the timing and depth of a recession are more important</b></p><p>Under the combined effect of high base, high cost, high inventory, high interest rate and weak demand,<b>U.S. growth and corporate earnings are already on a slowing path and will continue to fall</b>(\"U.S. Stock Earnings Enter a Downward Channel\"), which is also the general consensus of the current market.<b>If this path continues, a recession is also quite likely</b>。</p><p>Although Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated after the FOMC meeting and at last week's congressional hearing that it is not the Fed's subjective will to actively guide a recession (indicating that the possibility of an economic recession exists and a soft landing is very challenging),<b>However, the rapid tightening of financial conditions brought about by the fast rate hike will itself have a greater impact on demand</b>(The sudden rise in 30-year and 10-year mortgage interest rates has brought an immediate negative impact on the demand for real estate in the United States, and the number of mortgage applications and house sales have dropped rapidly). At the same time, the aftermath of the sudden monetary tightening is bound to gradually emerge (just like the image metaphor of former US Treasury Secretary Summers about the delayed change of faucet water temperature in a recent exclusive interview).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cffff211142d658726f70e8df3ba0ba\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"748\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Given the possibility of slowing growth or even a recession, the timing and depth of the recession are even more important</b>, because falling into recession too quickly will put the Fed's policy in a dilemma, and the market will also bear the dual pressure of valuation and profitability; A deep recession will have a more severe and lasting impact on earnings.</p><p><b>1) For the recession time, we try to estimate it by the tightness of financial conditions (the extent to which financing costs exceed the return on investment)</b>The advantage is that it is ahead of the economic indicators themselves and can \"observe\" the intentions of the Fed, because excessively high interest rates and excessively tight financial conditions will inevitably bring greater growth pressure, and at the same time, it also means that the Fed wants to curb demand to achieve the purpose of controlling inflation (looking back at history, when financial conditions turn positive, the Fed usually stops rate hike, except in the late 1970s).</p><p>We use the 3m10s interest rate spread and the two dimensions of actual corporate financing costs (investment-grade bond yields) and investment returns (real GDP growth) to calculate separately, based on the current Federal Reserve dot plot and the pace of rate hike implied by CME interest rate futures (rate hike from July to November were 75bp, 50bp and 25bp respectively),<b>Tighter financial conditions may put pressure on growth late this year and early next year</b>(Corresponding to the inversion of 3m10s in November and the financing cost exceeding the historical experience threshold of 250bp return on investment early next year) (\"How to Understand the Mechanism and Impact of Tightening Financial Conditions\"). In addition, although the Conference Board's economic leading indicators have continued to decline since the beginning of the year, the year-on-year growth rate has not yet turned negative. From the perspective of the relationship with the recession, it also indicates that there may still be some way to go.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3a5138665145a96277c213deb9296ef\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/034aec2af916f73b6ec4b6fb25aa0487\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c24f3cfc53848e33450b5a868abaf19e\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea2296dc54d0f47f2b822aafe68d3e6c\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) For recession depth</b>The current relatively healthy balance sheet status of the U.S. non-government sector indicates that at least it does not face a greater risk of debt crisis. In other words, even if there is a recession, there is a high probability that it will not be a deep recession similar to the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c25abd8081ea3a609855816e1c07e4\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Second, the current \"correct\" question? If the probability of a deep recession is low, when the policy will retreat is a more meaningful question for the market</b></p><p>If the probability of a deep recession is small and may not come soon,<b>Then the more meaningful question for markets is not whether there will be a recession, but when the policy will retreat</b>。 In the process of slowing growth, if the Fed's policy can decline or even turn after completing the \"task\" (such as inflation reaches an inflection point and Federal Funds rate effectively exceeds the neutral interest rate), then the market can enter the trading logic of slowing growth and loose policy. According to our \"improved version\" Merrill Lynch clock based on real interest rates and inflation expectations, inflation corresponds to bond assets and stock market growth styles relatively outperform.</p><p><b>Judging from our calculated inflation and tightening path, this point in time may correspond to after the third quarter</b>, mainly considering that U.S. inflation will once again usher in a high year-on-year base starting in September, and at the same time, the current rate hike path may gradually slow down after September.</p><p>In fact, the market stabilization in early 2019 showed this characteristic. The opportunity for the market to bottom out was that Powell sent a dovish signal in early 2019, but the real interest rate cut occurred half a year later in July 2019, and the growth improved until the third quarter. The rapid rate hike similar to the current Greenspan period in 1994 did not lead to a \"crash\" of the market, and to a certain extent, it also benefited from the timely \"closure\" of the policy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3683dd57c129b31cc443df6926beb01f\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2214bbade68b88971ad5f6d2eff5c1b\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. Market impact under different degrees of recession: the average decline of mild recession is ~ 20%, and the valuation is supported below one standard deviation</b></p><p><b>Different recessions have different degrees and times of impact on the economy, so naturally they have different impacts on the market.</b>Referring to the definition of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the United States has experienced 15 recessions since the late 1920s, with a median duration of ~ 10.1 months. The longest of which was the Great Depression (44 months) that began in 1929. The shortest was the 2020 epidemic (only 2 months).</p><p><b>We define the degree of recession by the decline of GDP from the peak. Empirical values show that a correction exceeding 3% is a deep recession, and a correction less than 3% is a mild recession.</b>Based on this definition, since the late 1920s, there have been a total of 7 deep recessions (1929-1933, 1937-1938, 1945, 1957-1958, 1973-1975, 2007-2009, 2020), with duration The median time is 13.2 months; There were 8 mild recessions (1948-1949, 1953-1954, 1960-1961, 1969-1970, 1980, 1981-1982, 1990-1991, 2001), with an average duration of 10 months. Generally speaking, a larger recession is usually accompanied by a crisis on the balance sheet, so a greater impact is slower and more difficult to repair (typically the 2008 financial crisis), while a small recession has a relatively limited impact on the balance sheet. Repair is also faster.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68c8b2234e6976a8efd806a5e8cc2cd9\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Based on the above division, we find that there are also \"distinct\" differences in market and sector performance.</b></p><p><b>1) Overall performance:</b>During a deep recession, the median maximum pullback/retracement of the S&P 500 is 44%, which is much larger than the 19% pullback/retracement during a mild recession.</p><p><b>2) Look at the time point</b>: The starting point of market decline is closer to the recession period during deep recession (the high point is 1.5 months ahead), while the decline begins earlier during mild recession (the market high point is 2.4 months ahead of the recession); But the end time is just the opposite. The market bottom is 6 months earlier than the end of a deep recession, and the market bottoms 5.1 months earlier than the mild recession.</p><p><b>3) Industry performance</b>: The decline during the recession of daily consumption and defensive sectors is generally small, which is in line with the characteristics of defensive sectors; However, the decline of real estate, financial services, media, utilities, insurance and other sectors is more sharp in deep recessions, which means that such sectors are more sensitive to the degree of recession, compared with the growth-style technology sector, which is less sensitive<b>。</b></p><p><b>4) Valuation and earnings:</b>Limited by valuation data, we have observed that during different recessions since the 1950s, the drag on earnings is roughly the same (the median deep recession is 2.4% vs. the median mild recession is 4.3%), and the difference in valuation drag is even more significant (median deep recession 35% vs. mild recession 18%).</p><p><b>5) Absolute valuation level:</b>The S&P 500 index has basically maintained one standard deviation below the mean in the past three decades, which can be supported (corresponding to a 12-month dynamic valuation of about 13 times, such as the 1994 rate hike cycle, the low point of the technology bubble in 2002, and the 2018 market turmoil and the 2020 epidemic); In contrast, a deep recession will \"break the position\". For example, during the deep recession in 2008, the valuation fell as low as 9 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9eaa6773a5a9ed1645bad6b879ffd1cd\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"832\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7082e70bbbd68294fca49d648b0e26dd\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In comparison, the current market decline from the high point is close to the average of mild recession (the largest pullback/retracement of the S&P 500 is 24%, and the largest pullback/retracement of the Nasdaq is 34%), while the current dynamic valuation of 16.3 times There is still 20.5% downside from the support level of mild recession. Based on the 10-year US Treasury yields of 3.5% and the current growth environment, we estimate that the reasonable level is about 14 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b36780fe4ba715c4a45795cd0e61dcb2\" tg-width=\"582\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. Is there any debt risk? The weak link of the US balance sheet</b></p><p>Overall, except for government departments, the macro leverage level of financial and non-financial enterprises and residential sectors in the United States is at a relatively healthy level, far lower than the 2008 financial crisis. Therefore,<b>This is also one of the main bases for us to judge that the probability of a deep recession like a debt crisis is low at present.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c25abd8081ea3a609855816e1c07e4\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Thanks to the continued deleveraging of U.S. residents after the subprime mortgage crisis, and three rounds of U.S. fiscal stimulus totaling US $6 trillion after the epidemic to protect the balance sheets of residents and businesses, the current U.S. resident leverage ratio is at a low level (75.1% vs. 74.2% in the fourth quarter of 2019), and the corporate leverage ratio is also close to the pre-epidemic level (77.7% vs. 75.1% in the fourth quarter of 2019). In the process of the Fed's accelerated tightening, the overall debt risk is controllable, but there are also some weak links that need attention. Specifically:</p><p><b>1) Residents: Healthy overall balance sheet; Middle-income people are more exposed.</b>Since 2022, U.S. household consumption has been quite resilient. Against the background that commodity consumption has begun to slow down, service consumption still maintains a relatively high growth rate. However, the current abundant excess savings (US $2.3 trillion) and resilient household consumption have deviated greatly from the consumer confidence that has continued to drop to a low point. For example, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was 50.2 in May, exceeding During the subprime mortgage crisis, it reached the level of the 1970s; The Conference Board's consumer confidence index was relatively higher at 106 in April, which may reflect the differentiation of people with different income levels.<b>A) High-income people have high asset growth and low leverage</b>。 As of the first quarter, the cash assets (savings and money funds) of the top 20% residents increased by 41.4% compared with the fourth quarter of 2019, while the liabilities/assets were the lowest among all people (3.8%).<b>b) High leverage among middle-income people</b>, the income quantile is between 20% and 80%, and the residents' liabilities/assets are close to 20%, but lower than the level of the subprime mortgage crisis.<b>c) The cash assets of low-income people have declined and their liabilities are not high</b>。 The main problem of people with income quantiles in the bottom 20% is that their assets are not high (cash assets fell by 1.2% month-on-month in the first quarter), and they are more susceptible to the squeeze of high inflation. However, what is relatively positive is that their liabilities are not high (15%), so they do not face a greater risk of default.</p><p>From the perspective of different types of liabilities on the resident side, the scale and proportion of student loans, auto loans and consumer credit have increased much more since the financial crisis than mortgage loans (as of the first quarter, mortgage loans/GDP was 50.2%, and consumer loans/GDP was 18.6%, but the improvement is faster), so it may be a weak link worthy of more attention.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d693ab3698ca973cf8f45563ae80d4e5\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"819\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d24c9810f3661b4b03b74bbad46e918b\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eb51d83baa2cd64d0a29e0c03da4105\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) Enterprise side: overall leverage improves and solvency improves; Focus on High Yield and Small Business Exposure</b>。 Although the U.S. corporate side has not experienced a substantial deleveraging process like the residential side, the leverage ratio of non-financial companies in the first quarter was 78%, and the net leverage ratio of S&P 500 non-financial companies was 74%, both higher than during the subprime mortgage crisis, but relative to the epidemic There is still improvement, and solvency has also been repaired (\"U.S. Stock Earnings Enter a Downward Channel\").</p><p>In \"Looking at the Weak Links under Tightening from the Turmoil of European and Japanese Bond Markets\", we pointed out that the credit spread in the United States has risen rapidly recently (high yield and investment grade are 5.3 ppt and 2.0 ppt respectively), the highest since 2015. Credit bonds, especially high-yield bonds, have significantly underperformed the Treasury Bond recently, accompanied by obvious capital outflows, so the potential risk exposure deserves attention. But what is relatively positive is that the maturity scale of U.S. high-yield bonds is only US $80 billion by the end of 2023, and the repayment pressure is not great.<b>In addition, small businesses in the United States are also worthy of attention due to high costs and tightening financial conditions.</b>We observe the short-term liquidity pressure and default risk of enterprises with current assets/short-term liabilities, and find that ~ 17% of listed companies in the United States are less than 1, with energy, raw materials, and consumer services accounting for the highest proportion; However, the market value accounts for only 0.6%, which indicates that the risk exposure is more dominated by small businesses and concentrated in sectors such as public utilities, finance and communications.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/789df80c100efce746b6f61d246b9607\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Market Dynamics: Powell emphasizes anti-inflation stance; Recession fears rise, as interest rates fall, bulk plummets, growth leads, and rate hike expectations fall</b></p><p><b>► Asset performance: Asset performance: stocks > bonds > bulk; Recession fears heat up, interest rates fall, bulk tumbles, growth leads the way</b></p><p><b>Market recession fears have heated up over the past week</b>, the performance is reflected in the 10-year US Treasury yields falling back to 3.1%, the bulk generally fell, and the growth style represented by FAAMNG and Nasdaq rebounded significantly. The decline in the initial value of Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States in June further reflected this situation. Market rate hike expectations fell, and the rate hike in September fell from 75bp to 50bp. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's hearing made it clear that a rate hike may lead to a recession, and it is challenging to achieve a soft landing, but the Fed will fight high inflation unconditionally. In order to reduce the pressure on oil prices, Biden expressed this week that he hopes to suspend the federal gasoline tax in the next three months. Brent crude oil prices once approached $107/barrel during the session, but supply and demand factors supported oil prices to close at $113/barrel this week.</p><p>Overall, under US dollar pricing, stocks > bonds > bulk; U.S. Chinese concept stocks, FAAMNG, Russian stock market, and Nasdaq led the gains; Wheat, natural gas, copper, soybeans and others led the decline. In terms of sectors, autos and parts, household goods, biotechnology, etc. in the S&P 500 led the gains, while only energy fell.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7793b1095eb898974815d115b18b5545\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Liquidity: FRA-OIS Narrows, Credit Spreads Higher</b></p><p>In the past week, the FRA-OIS spread narrowed to 20bp, the 90-day commercial bill spread in the financial industry widened, and the non-financial industry narrowed. Credit spreads all widened, and three-month cross-swaps between euro, yen, pound and dollar all narrowed. The willingness to lend funds in the US repo market has increased. In addition, the use of reverse repurchases by major U.S. financial institutions on the Federal Reserve's account dropped slightly but remained at a high level of US $2.2 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27b42fb05ab53b72567cc062011fc44b\" tg-width=\"997\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f03ee33446ac7eaac98e103647798bdf\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Emotional positions: Oversold in the US and Europe eased; U.S. stocks turn net short</b></p><p>In the past week, the VIX index has fallen as a whole, and the bearish/bullish ratio (10-day average) of US stocks has fallen. The oversold degree of European, American and emerging stock markets has eased. In terms of positions, speculative positions in U.S. stocks turned into net short positions, speculative net long positions in the U.S. dollar continued to increase, speculative net short positions in copper futures increased, net short positions in 10-year U.S. bonds increased, and net short positions in 2-year U.S. bonds decreased.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c809e3bf63c5c634305510bc15ca24f\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"733\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feb8364d0d2ce59fcb66c126a188f31b\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Fund flow: Bond outflows accelerate, U.S. stocks turn into outflows</b></p><p>In the past week, bond outflows have accelerated, stocks have turned to outflows, and money funds have turned to inflows. In terms of markets, the Japanese market has turned into inflows, Europe has accelerated outflows, and emerging markets and the United States have turned into outflows; South Korea and Vietnam recorded inflows, while India and China recorded significant outflows.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aa57fb5504f4f9ecf1c1143c8737a58\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7a5c011552507ab7f70bb132b98687a\" tg-width=\"982\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Fundamentals and policies: The initial PMI values of European and American manufacturing and service industries fell significantly</b></p><p><b>United States: The initial value of manufacturing PMI fell significantly in June, and demand weakened.</b>The Markit manufacturing PMI recorded 52.4 in June, lower than the previous value of 57 and the expected value of 56, a new low since July 2020. Against the background of high inflation and falling consumer confidence, weakening demand caused new PMI orders and output to fall sharply back to the contraction range in June, hitting a new low since June 2020. Supply deliveries improved slightly, and finished goods inventories rebounded, indicating a slight easing of supply pressure. The initial value of Markit services PMI in June was 51.6, lower than expectations (53.5) and the previous value (53.4), a five-month low.</p><p><b>Eurozone: The initial PMI value of manufacturing and service industries fell significantly in June.</b>The preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI value in June fell to 52, lower than expectations and previous values (53.8 and 54.6), the lowest level since August 2020. New orders, output and other sub-items have dropped significantly, and have fallen back to the contraction range. Under high inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, the economic growth and demand of the euro zone have weakened. Supply deliveries improved slightly, and finished goods inventories rebounded, indicating a slight easing of supply pressure. The preliminary value of the Services PMI fell to 52.8, which was lower than expectations and the previous values (54 and 54.8).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9147cb5405791940c42115acc3374dfd\" tg-width=\"1028\" tg-height=\"814\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Market valuation: still above reasonable levels for growth and liquidity</b></p><p><b>Still above reasonable levels of growth and liquidity.</b>The current dynamic P/E of the S&P 500 of 16.3 times is higher than the reasonable level that growth and liquidity can support (~ 15.1 times), and the valuation of U.S. stocks has fallen below the next standard deviation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab80789d31fe8c18bf2436ee0ecd8dfe\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"767\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d11bae2d8a5ee7beb59f5929e0ba85\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion | The historical relationship between recession risk and the bear market in US stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion | The historical relationship between recession risk and the bear market in US stocks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1090746012\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Kevin策略研究 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-26 16:11</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>After the FOMC rate hike reached 75bp in June, recession concerns increased significantly. Under the current background of fast rate hike, it is not surprising that the U.S. economy will subsequently fall into recession. So, what does the recession risk mean for U.S. stocks? What experience is worth learning from?</p><p><b>1. What is the risk of recession? Slowing growth is a given fact, and a recession is quite possible, but the timing and depth of a recession are more important</b></p><p>U.S. growth and profits are already on a slowdown path, and a subsequent recession is also quite likely. Suddenly, rate hike itself will have a greater impact on demand.<b>Given the possibility of a slowdown or even a recession, the timing and depth of the recession are even more important</b>。<b>1) For recession time</b>, we estimate that the pressure on growth from tightening financial conditions may appear at the end of this year and early next year, not so soon.<b>2) For recession depth</b>The current relatively healthy balance sheet of the U.S. non-government sector indicates that at least it does not face a greater risk of debt crisis.</p><p><b>Second, the current \"correct\" question? If the probability of a deep recession is low, when the policy will retreat is a more meaningful question for the market</b></p><p>If the probability of a deep recession is small and will not come soon, the more meaningful question for the market is not whether there will be a recession, but when the policy will retreat.<b>Judging from the inflation and tightening path we calculate, it may correspond to the beginning of the fourth quarter after the third quarter</b>。 At this point, the market can enter the trading logic of bonds and growth. There are similarities between early 2019 and 1994.</p><p><b>3. Market impact under different degrees of recession: the average decline of mild recession is ~ 20%, and the valuation is supported by one standard deviation below</b></p><p>The United States has experienced 15 recessions since the 1920s. We divide the degree of recession by the decline of GDP. Compared with a deep recession (with a correction of more than 3%) and a mild recession, the former is usually accompanied by a balance sheet shock (such as 2008), so it lasts longer (13 months on average); The market decline was significantly larger and more sudden; Real estate finance is more sensitive to the degree of recession, and the growth of technology is smaller; The former valuation drag is greater and there is no support level, and the mild recession valuation can find support at one standard deviation below the mean.</p><p>This round of market decline from its high point has been equivalent to a mild recession (S&P 500 pullback/retracement 24%, Nasdaq 34%); The current dynamic valuation of 16.3 times is still 15 ~ 20% away from the support level of 13 times. We estimate that the reasonable level based on the 3.5% 10-year U.S. bond is around 14 times.</p><p><b>4. Is there any debt risk? The weak link of the US balance sheet</b></p><p>Except for government departments, the macro leverage level of financial and non-financial enterprises and residents in the United States is at a relatively healthy level, far lower than that of the 2008 financial crisis. This is also one of the main bases for us to judge that the probability of a deep recession like a debt crisis is low at present. Some weak links, such as high-yield bonds and consumer loans for low-and middle-income people, deserve attention.</p><p><b>Focus Discussion: Recession Risks in the U.S. Economy vs. Bear Market Pressure in the U.S. Market</b></p><p>After the Fed's \"temporary\" rate hike of 75bp at the June FOMC meeting (\"June FOMC: Radical and Forward Path or the Current\" Optimal Solution \"),<b>The logic of market trading rapidly switched from high inflation and rapid contraction to weak growth, and recession fears increased significantly.</b>Affected by this, the 10-year US Treasury yields once dropped by around 3% from a high of 3.5%. At the same time, the higher gold-copper ratio last week, the sharp drop in oil prices, and the growth-style Nasdaq leading the gains may also be related to this expectation.</p><p><b>In the short term, we don't think the market's response to recession fears is excessive. However, it is also an indisputable fact that the current growth of the United States is gradually slowing down, and it is not surprising that it will subsequently fall into recession under the current background of rapid rate hike.</b>So, what does the recession risk mean for U.S. stocks and Fed policy? What experience in history is worth learning from? We will analyze it specifically in this article.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/334e4412ff2824eef6c9d55081154272\" tg-width=\"1003\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1. How big is the risk of recession? Slowing growth is a given fact, and a recession is quite possible, but the timing and depth of a recession are more important</b></p><p>Under the combined effect of high base, high cost, high inventory, high interest rate and weak demand,<b>U.S. growth and corporate earnings are already on a slowing path and will continue to fall</b>(\"U.S. Stock Earnings Enter a Downward Channel\"), which is also the general consensus of the current market.<b>If this path continues, a recession is also quite likely</b>。</p><p>Although Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated after the FOMC meeting and at last week's congressional hearing that it is not the Fed's subjective will to actively guide a recession (indicating that the possibility of an economic recession exists and a soft landing is very challenging),<b>However, the rapid tightening of financial conditions brought about by the fast rate hike will itself have a greater impact on demand</b>(The sudden rise in 30-year and 10-year mortgage interest rates has brought an immediate negative impact on the demand for real estate in the United States, and the number of mortgage applications and house sales have dropped rapidly). At the same time, the aftermath of the sudden monetary tightening is bound to gradually emerge (just like the image metaphor of former US Treasury Secretary Summers about the delayed change of faucet water temperature in a recent exclusive interview).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cffff211142d658726f70e8df3ba0ba\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"748\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Given the possibility of slowing growth or even a recession, the timing and depth of the recession are even more important</b>, because falling into recession too quickly will put the Fed's policy in a dilemma, and the market will also bear the dual pressure of valuation and profitability; A deep recession will have a more severe and lasting impact on earnings.</p><p><b>1) For the recession time, we try to estimate it by the tightness of financial conditions (the extent to which financing costs exceed the return on investment)</b>The advantage is that it is ahead of the economic indicators themselves and can \"observe\" the intentions of the Fed, because excessively high interest rates and excessively tight financial conditions will inevitably bring greater growth pressure, and at the same time, it also means that the Fed wants to curb demand to achieve the purpose of controlling inflation (looking back at history, when financial conditions turn positive, the Fed usually stops rate hike, except in the late 1970s).</p><p>We use the 3m10s interest rate spread and the two dimensions of actual corporate financing costs (investment-grade bond yields) and investment returns (real GDP growth) to calculate separately, based on the current Federal Reserve dot plot and the pace of rate hike implied by CME interest rate futures (rate hike from July to November were 75bp, 50bp and 25bp respectively),<b>Tighter financial conditions may put pressure on growth late this year and early next year</b>(Corresponding to the inversion of 3m10s in November and the financing cost exceeding the historical experience threshold of 250bp return on investment early next year) (\"How to Understand the Mechanism and Impact of Tightening Financial Conditions\"). In addition, although the Conference Board's economic leading indicators have continued to decline since the beginning of the year, the year-on-year growth rate has not yet turned negative. From the perspective of the relationship with the recession, it also indicates that there may still be some way to go.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3a5138665145a96277c213deb9296ef\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/034aec2af916f73b6ec4b6fb25aa0487\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c24f3cfc53848e33450b5a868abaf19e\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea2296dc54d0f47f2b822aafe68d3e6c\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) For recession depth</b>The current relatively healthy balance sheet status of the U.S. non-government sector indicates that at least it does not face a greater risk of debt crisis. In other words, even if there is a recession, there is a high probability that it will not be a deep recession similar to the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c25abd8081ea3a609855816e1c07e4\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Second, the current \"correct\" question? If the probability of a deep recession is low, when the policy will retreat is a more meaningful question for the market</b></p><p>If the probability of a deep recession is small and may not come soon,<b>Then the more meaningful question for markets is not whether there will be a recession, but when the policy will retreat</b>。 In the process of slowing growth, if the Fed's policy can decline or even turn after completing the \"task\" (such as inflation reaches an inflection point and Federal Funds rate effectively exceeds the neutral interest rate), then the market can enter the trading logic of slowing growth and loose policy. According to our \"improved version\" Merrill Lynch clock based on real interest rates and inflation expectations, inflation corresponds to bond assets and stock market growth styles relatively outperform.</p><p><b>Judging from our calculated inflation and tightening path, this point in time may correspond to after the third quarter</b>, mainly considering that U.S. inflation will once again usher in a high year-on-year base starting in September, and at the same time, the current rate hike path may gradually slow down after September.</p><p>In fact, the market stabilization in early 2019 showed this characteristic. The opportunity for the market to bottom out was that Powell sent a dovish signal in early 2019, but the real interest rate cut occurred half a year later in July 2019, and the growth improved until the third quarter. The rapid rate hike similar to the current Greenspan period in 1994 did not lead to a \"crash\" of the market, and to a certain extent, it also benefited from the timely \"closure\" of the policy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3683dd57c129b31cc443df6926beb01f\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2214bbade68b88971ad5f6d2eff5c1b\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. Market impact under different degrees of recession: the average decline of mild recession is ~ 20%, and the valuation is supported below one standard deviation</b></p><p><b>Different recessions have different degrees and times of impact on the economy, so naturally they have different impacts on the market.</b>Referring to the definition of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the United States has experienced 15 recessions since the late 1920s, with a median duration of ~ 10.1 months. The longest of which was the Great Depression (44 months) that began in 1929. The shortest was the 2020 epidemic (only 2 months).</p><p><b>We define the degree of recession by the decline of GDP from the peak. Empirical values show that a correction exceeding 3% is a deep recession, and a correction less than 3% is a mild recession.</b>Based on this definition, since the late 1920s, there have been a total of 7 deep recessions (1929-1933, 1937-1938, 1945, 1957-1958, 1973-1975, 2007-2009, 2020), with duration The median time is 13.2 months; There were 8 mild recessions (1948-1949, 1953-1954, 1960-1961, 1969-1970, 1980, 1981-1982, 1990-1991, 2001), with an average duration of 10 months. Generally speaking, a larger recession is usually accompanied by a crisis on the balance sheet, so a greater impact is slower and more difficult to repair (typically the 2008 financial crisis), while a small recession has a relatively limited impact on the balance sheet. Repair is also faster.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68c8b2234e6976a8efd806a5e8cc2cd9\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Based on the above division, we find that there are also \"distinct\" differences in market and sector performance.</b></p><p><b>1) Overall performance:</b>During a deep recession, the median maximum pullback/retracement of the S&P 500 is 44%, which is much larger than the 19% pullback/retracement during a mild recession.</p><p><b>2) Look at the time point</b>: The starting point of market decline is closer to the recession period during deep recession (the high point is 1.5 months ahead), while the decline begins earlier during mild recession (the market high point is 2.4 months ahead of the recession); But the end time is just the opposite. The market bottom is 6 months earlier than the end of a deep recession, and the market bottoms 5.1 months earlier than the mild recession.</p><p><b>3) Industry performance</b>: The decline during the recession of daily consumption and defensive sectors is generally small, which is in line with the characteristics of defensive sectors; However, the decline of real estate, financial services, media, utilities, insurance and other sectors is more sharp in deep recessions, which means that such sectors are more sensitive to the degree of recession, compared with the growth-style technology sector, which is less sensitive<b>。</b></p><p><b>4) Valuation and earnings:</b>Limited by valuation data, we have observed that during different recessions since the 1950s, the drag on earnings is roughly the same (the median deep recession is 2.4% vs. the median mild recession is 4.3%), and the difference in valuation drag is even more significant (median deep recession 35% vs. mild recession 18%).</p><p><b>5) Absolute valuation level:</b>The S&P 500 index has basically maintained one standard deviation below the mean in the past three decades, which can be supported (corresponding to a 12-month dynamic valuation of about 13 times, such as the 1994 rate hike cycle, the low point of the technology bubble in 2002, and the 2018 market turmoil and the 2020 epidemic); In contrast, a deep recession will \"break the position\". For example, during the deep recession in 2008, the valuation fell as low as 9 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9eaa6773a5a9ed1645bad6b879ffd1cd\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"832\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7082e70bbbd68294fca49d648b0e26dd\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In comparison, the current market decline from the high point is close to the average of mild recession (the largest pullback/retracement of the S&P 500 is 24%, and the largest pullback/retracement of the Nasdaq is 34%), while the current dynamic valuation of 16.3 times There is still 20.5% downside from the support level of mild recession. Based on the 10-year US Treasury yields of 3.5% and the current growth environment, we estimate that the reasonable level is about 14 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b36780fe4ba715c4a45795cd0e61dcb2\" tg-width=\"582\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. Is there any debt risk? The weak link of the US balance sheet</b></p><p>Overall, except for government departments, the macro leverage level of financial and non-financial enterprises and residential sectors in the United States is at a relatively healthy level, far lower than the 2008 financial crisis. Therefore,<b>This is also one of the main bases for us to judge that the probability of a deep recession like a debt crisis is low at present.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c25abd8081ea3a609855816e1c07e4\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Thanks to the continued deleveraging of U.S. residents after the subprime mortgage crisis, and three rounds of U.S. fiscal stimulus totaling US $6 trillion after the epidemic to protect the balance sheets of residents and businesses, the current U.S. resident leverage ratio is at a low level (75.1% vs. 74.2% in the fourth quarter of 2019), and the corporate leverage ratio is also close to the pre-epidemic level (77.7% vs. 75.1% in the fourth quarter of 2019). In the process of the Fed's accelerated tightening, the overall debt risk is controllable, but there are also some weak links that need attention. Specifically:</p><p><b>1) Residents: Healthy overall balance sheet; Middle-income people are more exposed.</b>Since 2022, U.S. household consumption has been quite resilient. Against the background that commodity consumption has begun to slow down, service consumption still maintains a relatively high growth rate. However, the current abundant excess savings (US $2.3 trillion) and resilient household consumption have deviated greatly from the consumer confidence that has continued to drop to a low point. For example, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was 50.2 in May, exceeding During the subprime mortgage crisis, it reached the level of the 1970s; The Conference Board's consumer confidence index was relatively higher at 106 in April, which may reflect the differentiation of people with different income levels.<b>A) High-income people have high asset growth and low leverage</b>。 As of the first quarter, the cash assets (savings and money funds) of the top 20% residents increased by 41.4% compared with the fourth quarter of 2019, while the liabilities/assets were the lowest among all people (3.8%).<b>b) High leverage among middle-income people</b>, the income quantile is between 20% and 80%, and the residents' liabilities/assets are close to 20%, but lower than the level of the subprime mortgage crisis.<b>c) The cash assets of low-income people have declined and their liabilities are not high</b>。 The main problem of people with income quantiles in the bottom 20% is that their assets are not high (cash assets fell by 1.2% month-on-month in the first quarter), and they are more susceptible to the squeeze of high inflation. However, what is relatively positive is that their liabilities are not high (15%), so they do not face a greater risk of default.</p><p>From the perspective of different types of liabilities on the resident side, the scale and proportion of student loans, auto loans and consumer credit have increased much more since the financial crisis than mortgage loans (as of the first quarter, mortgage loans/GDP was 50.2%, and consumer loans/GDP was 18.6%, but the improvement is faster), so it may be a weak link worthy of more attention.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d693ab3698ca973cf8f45563ae80d4e5\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"819\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d24c9810f3661b4b03b74bbad46e918b\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eb51d83baa2cd64d0a29e0c03da4105\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) Enterprise side: overall leverage improves and solvency improves; Focus on High Yield and Small Business Exposure</b>。 Although the U.S. corporate side has not experienced a substantial deleveraging process like the residential side, the leverage ratio of non-financial companies in the first quarter was 78%, and the net leverage ratio of S&P 500 non-financial companies was 74%, both higher than during the subprime mortgage crisis, but relative to the epidemic There is still improvement, and solvency has also been repaired (\"U.S. Stock Earnings Enter a Downward Channel\").</p><p>In \"Looking at the Weak Links under Tightening from the Turmoil of European and Japanese Bond Markets\", we pointed out that the credit spread in the United States has risen rapidly recently (high yield and investment grade are 5.3 ppt and 2.0 ppt respectively), the highest since 2015. Credit bonds, especially high-yield bonds, have significantly underperformed the Treasury Bond recently, accompanied by obvious capital outflows, so the potential risk exposure deserves attention. But what is relatively positive is that the maturity scale of U.S. high-yield bonds is only US $80 billion by the end of 2023, and the repayment pressure is not great.<b>In addition, small businesses in the United States are also worthy of attention due to high costs and tightening financial conditions.</b>We observe the short-term liquidity pressure and default risk of enterprises with current assets/short-term liabilities, and find that ~ 17% of listed companies in the United States are less than 1, with energy, raw materials, and consumer services accounting for the highest proportion; However, the market value accounts for only 0.6%, which indicates that the risk exposure is more dominated by small businesses and concentrated in sectors such as public utilities, finance and communications.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/789df80c100efce746b6f61d246b9607\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Market Dynamics: Powell emphasizes anti-inflation stance; Recession fears rise, as interest rates fall, bulk plummets, growth leads, and rate hike expectations fall</b></p><p><b>► Asset performance: Asset performance: stocks > bonds > bulk; Recession fears heat up, interest rates fall, bulk tumbles, growth leads the way</b></p><p><b>Market recession fears have heated up over the past week</b>, the performance is reflected in the 10-year US Treasury yields falling back to 3.1%, the bulk generally fell, and the growth style represented by FAAMNG and Nasdaq rebounded significantly. The decline in the initial value of Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States in June further reflected this situation. Market rate hike expectations fell, and the rate hike in September fell from 75bp to 50bp. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's hearing made it clear that a rate hike may lead to a recession, and it is challenging to achieve a soft landing, but the Fed will fight high inflation unconditionally. In order to reduce the pressure on oil prices, Biden expressed this week that he hopes to suspend the federal gasoline tax in the next three months. Brent crude oil prices once approached $107/barrel during the session, but supply and demand factors supported oil prices to close at $113/barrel this week.</p><p>Overall, under US dollar pricing, stocks > bonds > bulk; U.S. Chinese concept stocks, FAAMNG, Russian stock market, and Nasdaq led the gains; Wheat, natural gas, copper, soybeans and others led the decline. In terms of sectors, autos and parts, household goods, biotechnology, etc. in the S&P 500 led the gains, while only energy fell.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7793b1095eb898974815d115b18b5545\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Liquidity: FRA-OIS Narrows, Credit Spreads Higher</b></p><p>In the past week, the FRA-OIS spread narrowed to 20bp, the 90-day commercial bill spread in the financial industry widened, and the non-financial industry narrowed. Credit spreads all widened, and three-month cross-swaps between euro, yen, pound and dollar all narrowed. The willingness to lend funds in the US repo market has increased. In addition, the use of reverse repurchases by major U.S. financial institutions on the Federal Reserve's account dropped slightly but remained at a high level of US $2.2 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27b42fb05ab53b72567cc062011fc44b\" tg-width=\"997\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f03ee33446ac7eaac98e103647798bdf\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Emotional positions: Oversold in the US and Europe eased; U.S. stocks turn net short</b></p><p>In the past week, the VIX index has fallen as a whole, and the bearish/bullish ratio (10-day average) of US stocks has fallen. The oversold degree of European, American and emerging stock markets has eased. In terms of positions, speculative positions in U.S. stocks turned into net short positions, speculative net long positions in the U.S. dollar continued to increase, speculative net short positions in copper futures increased, net short positions in 10-year U.S. bonds increased, and net short positions in 2-year U.S. bonds decreased.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c809e3bf63c5c634305510bc15ca24f\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"733\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feb8364d0d2ce59fcb66c126a188f31b\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Fund flow: Bond outflows accelerate, U.S. stocks turn into outflows</b></p><p>In the past week, bond outflows have accelerated, stocks have turned to outflows, and money funds have turned to inflows. In terms of markets, the Japanese market has turned into inflows, Europe has accelerated outflows, and emerging markets and the United States have turned into outflows; South Korea and Vietnam recorded inflows, while India and China recorded significant outflows.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aa57fb5504f4f9ecf1c1143c8737a58\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7a5c011552507ab7f70bb132b98687a\" tg-width=\"982\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Fundamentals and policies: The initial PMI values of European and American manufacturing and service industries fell significantly</b></p><p><b>United States: The initial value of manufacturing PMI fell significantly in June, and demand weakened.</b>The Markit manufacturing PMI recorded 52.4 in June, lower than the previous value of 57 and the expected value of 56, a new low since July 2020. Against the background of high inflation and falling consumer confidence, weakening demand caused new PMI orders and output to fall sharply back to the contraction range in June, hitting a new low since June 2020. Supply deliveries improved slightly, and finished goods inventories rebounded, indicating a slight easing of supply pressure. The initial value of Markit services PMI in June was 51.6, lower than expectations (53.5) and the previous value (53.4), a five-month low.</p><p><b>Eurozone: The initial PMI value of manufacturing and service industries fell significantly in June.</b>The preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI value in June fell to 52, lower than expectations and previous values (53.8 and 54.6), the lowest level since August 2020. New orders, output and other sub-items have dropped significantly, and have fallen back to the contraction range. Under high inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, the economic growth and demand of the euro zone have weakened. Supply deliveries improved slightly, and finished goods inventories rebounded, indicating a slight easing of supply pressure. The preliminary value of the Services PMI fell to 52.8, which was lower than expectations and the previous values (54 and 54.8).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9147cb5405791940c42115acc3374dfd\" tg-width=\"1028\" tg-height=\"814\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Market valuation: still above reasonable levels for growth and liquidity</b></p><p><b>Still above reasonable levels of growth and liquidity.</b>The current dynamic P/E of the S&P 500 of 16.3 times is higher than the reasonable level that growth and liquidity can support (~ 15.1 times), and the valuation of U.S. stocks has fallen below the next standard deviation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab80789d31fe8c18bf2436ee0ecd8dfe\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"767\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d11bae2d8a5ee7beb59f5929e0ba85\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122634027","content_text":"6月FOMC加息75bp后，衰退担忧明显升温。在当前快加息背景下美国经济后续陷入衰退也不算意外。那么，衰退风险对美股有何启示？有何经验值得借鉴？一、衰退风险多大？增长放缓是既定事实，衰退也有相当可能，但衰退到来时间和深度更重要美国增长和盈利已处于放缓通道，后续衰退也有相当可能性，骤然加息本身就会对需求带来较大冲击。给定放缓甚至衰退可能性，衰退到来时间和深度更加重要。1）对于衰退时间，我们测算金融条件收紧对增长压力可能在今年底和明年初出现，并没那么快。2）对于衰退深度，当前美国非政府部门相对较为健康的资产负债表表明至少不面临较大的债务危机风险。二、当前“正确”的问题？如果深度衰退概率不大，政策何时退坡才是对市场更有意义的问题若深度衰退概率较小且不会很快到来，对市场更有意义的问题不是是否会衰退，而是政策何时能退坡。从我们测算的通胀和紧缩路径看，可能对应在三季度后四季度初。此时，市场可以进入债券和成长的交易逻辑。2019年初和1994年都有相似之处。三、不同衰退程度下的市场冲击：轻度衰退平均跌幅~20%、估值在下方一倍标准差有支撑上世纪20年代以来美国经历15次衰退。我们以GDP回落幅度划分衰退程度。对比深度衰退（回调幅度超过3%）和轻度衰退，前者通常伴随资产负债表冲击（如2008年），故持续时间更长（平均13个月）；市场跌幅明显更大，时点上更突然；地产金融等对衰退程度更敏感、科技成长较小；前者估值拖累更大且没有支撑位，轻度衰退估值能在均值下方一倍标准差找到支撑。本轮市场从高点跌幅已与轻度衰退相当（标普500回撤24%，纳斯达克34%）；当前16.3倍动态估值距13倍支撑位还有15~20%，我们基于3.5%10年美债测算合理水平为14倍附近。四、是否存在债务风险？美国资产负债表的薄弱环节除政府部门外，美国金融和非金融企业与居民宏观杠杆水平都处于相对健康水平，远低于2008年金融危机，这也是我们判断当前发生债务危机式的深度衰退概率较低的主要依据之一。一些薄弱环节，如高收益债、中低收入人群消费贷款等值得关注。焦点讨论：美国经济的衰退风险 vs. 美国市场的熊市压力6月FOMC会议美联储“临时”加息75bp后（《6月FOMC：激进且前置的路径或是当前“最优解”》），市场交易逻辑迅速从高通胀和快紧缩向弱增长切换，衰退担忧明显升温。受此影响，10年美债利率从3.5%的高点一度回落3%附近。与此同时，上周金铜比走高、油价大跌、成长风格纳斯达克领涨可能也都与这一预期有关。短期来看，我们认为市场对衰退担忧的反应不排除有过度之嫌。但是，当前美国增长逐步放缓也是不争的事实，在当前快加息的背景下后续陷入衰退也不算意外。那么，衰退风险对美股和美联储政策有何启示？历史上有什么经验值得借鉴？我们将在本文中具体分析。一、衰退风险有多大？增长放缓是既定事实，衰退也有相当可能，但衰退到来时间和深度更重要在高基数、高成本、高库存、高利率和弱需求的共同作用下，美国增长和企业盈利已经处于放缓通道且仍将继续回落（《美股盈利进入下行通道》），这也是当前市场的普遍共识。沿着这个路径继续下去，衰退也有相当可能性。尽管美联储主席鲍威尔在FOMC会议后和上周国会听证会上都表示主动引导衰退并不是美联储主观意愿（表示经济衰退可能性存在，且软着陆非常具有挑战性），但快加息带来的金融条件快速收紧本身就会对需求带来较大冲击（30年和10年房贷利率的骤升已经给美国房地产需求带来了立竿见影的负面影响，房贷申请数和房屋销售都快速回落），同时货币骤然紧缩的余波也势必会逐步显现出来（正如美国前财长萨默斯在近期接受专访中有关水龙头水温延时变化的形象比喻）。给定增长放缓甚至衰退的可能性，衰退到来时间和深度更加重要，因为过快陷入衰退将使得美联储政策面临两难境地，市场也将承受估值和盈利的双重压力；而深度衰退则将对盈利造成更加剧烈且持久的冲击。1) 对于衰退时间，我们尝试通过金融条件的松紧（融资成本超过投资回报率的程度）来估算，其好处是相比经济指标本身具有领先性且能够“观察”美联储的意图，因为过高的利率和过紧的金融条件必然带来更大增长压力的同时、也意味着美联储想要通过抑制需求来实现控制通胀的目的（回顾历史，当金融条件转正后，美联储通常便停止加息，仅上世纪七十年代末例外）。我们采用3m10s利差以及企业实际融资成本（投资级债券收益率）与投资回报率（实际GDP增速）这两个维度分别测算，以当前美联储点阵图和CME利率期货隐含的加息步伐计（7~11月分别加息75bp、50bp和25bp），金融条件收紧对增长压力可能在今年底和明年初出现（对应3m10s在11月倒挂、以及融资成本明年初超出投资回报率250bp的历史经验阈值）（《如何理解金融条件收紧的机制与影响》）。此外，Conference Board经济领先指标虽然年初以来持续下滑但同比增速尚未转负，从与衰退的关系看也表明可能还有一段距离。2) 对于衰退深度，当前美国非政府部门相对较为健康的资产负债表状况表明至少不面临较大的债务危机风险，换言之，即便出现衰退，可能大概率也不会是类似于2008年金融危机似的深度衰退。二、当前“正确”的问题？如果深度衰退概率不大，政策何时退坡才是对市场更有意义的问题如果深度衰退概率较小且可能不会很快到来，那么对市场而言更有意义的问题不是是否会衰退、而是政策何时能够退坡。在增长放缓的过程中，如果美联储政策完成“任务”之后（如通胀出现拐点且联邦基金利率有效超过中性利率）可以退坡甚至转向的话，那么市场则可以进入增长放缓且政策宽松的交易逻辑，根据我们基于实际利率和通胀预期的“改进版”美林时钟，通胀对应债券资产和股市成长风格相对跑赢。从我们测算的通胀和紧缩路径看，这一时点可能对应在三季度之后，主要是考虑到9月开始美国通胀将再度迎来同比高基数，同时当前加息路径可能在9月之后逐步降速。实际上，2019年初的市场企稳就呈现出这一特点，市场见底的契机是2019年初鲍威尔传递鸽派信号，但真正降息则是发生在半年后的2019年7月、增长好转更是要到三季度。1994年格林斯潘时期与当前类似的快速加息并没有导致市场以“崩盘”收场，在一定程度上也同样得益于政策的及时“收手”。三、不同衰退程度下的市场冲击：轻度衰退平均跌幅~20%、估值在一倍标准差下方有支撑不同衰退对经济冲击程度和时间不同，自然对市场的影响也就不同。参照美国国家经济研究局（NBER）的定义，上世纪20年代末以来美国共经历15次衰退，持续时间中值~10.1个月，其中最长的是1929年开启的大萧条（44个月），最短的是2020年疫情（仅2个月）。我们以GDP从峰值回落幅度来定义衰退程度，经验值看回调幅度超过3%为深度衰退、小于3%为轻度衰退。基于这一定义，上世纪20年代末以来，深度衰退共计7次（1929~1933年、1937~1938年、1945年、1957~1958年、1973~1975年、2007~2009年、2020年），持续时间中值13.2个月；轻度衰退8次（1948~1949年、1953~1954年、1960~1961年、1969~1970年、1980年、1981~1982年、1990年~1991年、2001年），平均持续时间10个月。一般而言，较大程度的衰退通常会伴随资产负债表的危机，因此冲击更大修复也更慢更难（典型如2008年金融危机），而小幅的衰退对资产负债表的冲击相对有限、修复也更快。基于上述划分，我们发现市场和板块表现也存在“泾渭分明”的差异。1）整体表现：深度衰退期间，标普500最大回撤中值44%，远大于轻度衰退期的19%的回撤。2）时点上看：市场下跌起点在深度衰退期间与衰退期更为贴近（高点领先1.5个月），而轻度衰退时下跌开始的更早（市场高点领先衰退2.4个月）；但结束时间恰好相反，市场底部早于深度衰退结束6个月，市场见底早于轻度衰退5.1个月。3）行业表现：日常消费及防御板块衰退期间跌幅普遍都较小、符合防御性板块特征；但房地产、金融服务、媒体、公用事业、保险等板块跌幅在深度衰退更剧烈，意味着此类板块对衰退程度更加敏感，相比之下成长风格的科技板块敏感度较低。4）估值与盈利：受限于估值数据，我们观察上世纪50年代以来不同衰退期间，盈利的拖累程度大体相当（深度衰退中值为2.4% vs. 轻度衰退中值为4.3%），估值拖累差异则更为显著（深度衰退中值35% vs. 轻度衰退18%）。5）估值绝对水平：标普500指数在过去三十年间基本都在均值下方一倍标准差的维持能够得到支撑（对应12个月动态估值13倍左右，如1994年加息周期、2002年科技泡沫低点、2018年市场动荡和2020年疫情）；相比之下深度衰退则会“破位”，如2008年深度衰退除期间，估值最低跌至9倍。对比来看，本轮市场从高点的跌幅已经接近轻度衰退的平均值（标普500最大回撤24%，纳斯达克最大回撤34%），而当前16.3倍的动态估值距离轻度衰退的支撑位还有20.5%的下行空间，我们基于3.5%的10年美债利率与当前增长环境测算合理水平为14倍左右。四、是否存在债务风险？美国资产负债表的薄弱环节整体来看，除政府部门外，美国金融和非金融企业与居民部门宏观杠杆水平都处于相对健康水平，远低于2008年金融危机，因此这也是我们判断当前发生债务危机式的深度衰退概率较低的主要依据之一。得益于次贷危机后美国居民持续去杠杆，以及疫情后美国三轮共计6万亿美元财政刺激保护了居民和企业资产负债表，美国当前居民杠杆率处于较低水平（75.1%vs. 2019年四季度74.2%），企业杠杆率也接近疫情前水平（77.7% vs. 2019年四季度75.1%），这也是鲍威尔此前称美国经济能够抵御紧缩压力的主要原因。在美联储加速紧缩的过程中，整体债务风险可控，但中间也存在一些薄弱环节需要关注。具体来看：1) 居民：总体资产负债表健康；中等收入人群敞口更大。2022年以来美国居民消费一直呈现相当韧性，在商品消费已经开始放缓的背景下，服务消费仍保持较高增速。但当前仍充沛的超额储蓄（2.3万亿美元）、有韧性的居民消费，与已经持续下探到低点的消费者信心出现了较大背离，如密歇根大学消费者情绪指数5月50.2，超过次贷危机时期，达到了上世纪70年代水平；世界大型企业联合会（Conference Board）消费者信心指数4月为106相对更高，这背后可能体现出不同收入水平人群的分化。a）高收入人群资产增幅高，杠杆低。截至一季度，收入前20%居民现金类资产（储蓄和货币基金）较2019年四季度增长 41.4%，负债/资产则是所有人群中最低（3.8%）。b）中等收入人群高杠杆，收入分位在20%~80%居民负债/资产接近20%，但低于次贷危机水平。c）低收入人群现金资产下降但负债不高。收入分位在后20%的人群主要问题是资产不高（一季度现金类资产环比下降1.2%），更容易受高通胀的挤压，但相对积极的是其负债也不高（15%），因此不面临较大的违约风险。从居民端不同类别负债看，学生贷款、汽车贷款和消费信贷的规模和占比从金融危机以来提升幅度都要远高于房贷（截至一季度房贷/GDP为50.2%，消费贷/GDP为18.6%，但提升更快），因此可能是更值得关注的薄弱环节。2) 企业端：整体杠杆改善，偿付能力提升；关注高收益债和小企业敞口。虽然美国企业端并未像居民端经历大幅去杠杆过程，一季度非金融企业杠杆率为78%，标普500非金融企业净杠杆率74%，均高于次贷危机时期，但相对疫情以来仍有改善，且偿付能力也有所修复（《美股盈利进入下行通道》）。我们在《从欧日债市动荡看紧缩下的薄弱环节》中指出，美国信用利差近期快速上升（高收益和投资级分别为5.3ppt和2.0ppt），为2015年以来新高。信用债尤其是高收益债近期大幅跑输国债，并伴随明显的资金流出，因此潜在的风险敞口值得关注。但相对积极的是，美国高收益债到期规模截至2023年末只有800亿美元，偿付压力并不算大。此外，美国小企业受高成本和金融条件收紧也值得关注。我们以流动资产/短期负债观测企业短期流动性压力以及违约风险，发现在美国上市公司中~17%小于1，以能源、原材料、消费服务占比最高；不过市值占比只有0.6%，这表明风险敞口更多以小企业为主，且集中在公用事业、金融和通讯等板块。市场动态：鲍威尔强调抗通胀立场；衰退担忧升温，表现为利率回落、大宗大跌，成长领先，加息预期回落►资产表现：资产表现：股>债>大宗；衰退担忧升温，利率回落、大宗大跌，成长领先过去一周市场衰退担忧升温，表现体现为10年美债利率回落至3.1%、大宗普遍下跌，FAAMNG、纳斯达克为代表的成长风格反弹明显。美国6月Markit制造业PMI初值回落进一步反映这一情形，市场加息预期回落，9月加息幅度由75bp回落至50bp。美联储主席鲍威尔听证会明确表示加息或可能导致衰退，实现软着陆具有挑战性，但美联储将无条件抗击高通胀。为降低油价压力，拜登本周表示希望在未来三个月内暂停联邦汽油税，布伦特原油价格盘中一度逼近107美元/桶，但供需因素支撑油价本周收于113美元/桶。整体看，美元计价下，股>债>大宗；美国中概股、FAAMNG、俄罗斯股市、纳斯达克领涨；小麦、天然气、铜、大豆等领跌。板块方面，标普500中汽车与零部件、家庭用品、生物科技等领涨，仅能源下跌。►流动性：FRA-OIS收窄，信用利差走高过去一周，FRA-OIS利差收窄至20bp，90天金融行业商票利差走扩，非金融行业收窄。信用利差均走扩，欧元、日元、英镑与美元的3个月交叉互换均收窄。美国回购市场资金出借意愿增加。此外，美国主要金融机构在美联储账上逆回购使用量略回落但仍维持2.2万亿美元的高位。►情绪仓位：美欧超卖缓解；美股转为净空头过去一周，VIX指数整体回落，美股看空/看多比例（10天平均）回落。欧美及新兴股市超卖程度有所趋缓。仓位方面，美股投机性仓位转为净空头，美元投机性净多头仓位持续增加，铜期货投机性净空头仓位增加，10年美债净空头仓位增加，2年美债净空头仓位减少。►资金流向：债券加速流出，美股转为流出过去一周，债券加速流出，股票转为流出，货币基金转为流入。分市场看，日本市场转为流入，欧洲加速流出，新兴市场、美国转为流出；韩国、越南录得流入，印度、中国流出明显。►基本面与政策：欧美制造业与服务业PMI初值回落明显美国：6月制造业PMI初值回落明显，需求趋弱。6月Markit制造业PMI录得52.4，低于前值57和预期值56，创2020年7月以来新低。在通胀高企、消费者信心回落的背景下，需求趋弱导致6月PMI新订单、产出大幅回落至收缩区间，创2020年6月以来新低。供应交付小幅改善，产成品库存有所回升，表明供应压力略有缓解。6月Markit 服务业PMI初值为51.6，低于预期（53.5）和前值（53.4），为5个月以来新低。欧元区：6月制造业和服务业PMI初值回落明显。6月Markit制造业PMI初值降至52，低于预期和前值（53.8和54.6），为2020年8月以来的最低水平。新订单、产出等分项回落明显，且已回落至收缩区间，在高通胀及地缘政治不确定性下欧元区经济增长和需求趋弱。供应交付小幅改善，产成品库存有所回升，表明供应压力略有缓解。服务业PMI初值降至52.8，低于预期和前值（54和54.8）。►市场估值：仍然高于增长和流动性合理水平仍然高于增长和流动性合理水平。当前标普500的16.3倍动态P/E高于增长和流动性能够支撑的合理水平（~15.1倍），美股估值已低于向下一倍标准差。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":695,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9043498984,"gmtCreate":1655948971248,"gmtModify":1676535738467,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9043498984","repostId":"2245324562","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1015,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9043948713,"gmtCreate":1655865103132,"gmtModify":1676535721669,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9043948713","repostId":"1122597144","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9040311400,"gmtCreate":1655608559600,"gmtModify":1676535670771,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9040311400","repostId":"1153597517","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153597517","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1655510908,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153597517?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-18 08:08","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | The Fed's most hawkish remarks were released! The global food crisis is worsening","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153597517","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①美股周五收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.13%，纳指涨1.43%；②美联储最鹰派言论出炉！对恢复价格稳定的承诺是“无条件的”；③粮食危机雪上加霜，俄罗斯化肥生产商出口量削减近三成；④全球央行掀起80年","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: ① U.S. stocks closed mixed on Friday, with the Dow falling 0.13% and the Nasdaq rising 1.43%; ② The most hawkish remarks of the Federal Reserve are released! The commitment to restoring price stability is \"unconditional\"; ③ The food crisis has worsened, and the export volume of Russian fertilizer producers has been reduced by nearly 30%; ④ Central banks around the world set off the most hawkish action since 1980s, and the stock market headed for the biggest weekly decline in two years. Overseas Market</p><p>1. U.S. stocks closed mixed on Friday, with the Dow down 0.13% and the Nasdaq up 1.43%.</p><p>U.S. stocks closed mixed on Friday, with the Dow down 0.13%, the Nasdaq up 1.43%, and the S&P 500 up 0.22%. The S&P 500 recorded its worst weekly performance since March 2020.</p><p>On the disk, large technology stocks rose across the board.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Up 1.15%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Up 1.09%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Up 1.15%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>It rose 2.47%, and Meta rose 1.78%.</p><p>2. Popular Chinese concept stocks generally rebounded at the close on Friday, while new energy vehicle stocks rose</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily excellent fresh</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">Water droplets</a>The company rose more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUTU\">Futu Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LU\">Lufax</a>Holding,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Mavericks Electric</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QD\">Fun shop</a>, EHang rose more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">Yixian E-commerce</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIOT\">Yunmi Technology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">Lychee</a>Up nearly 4%.</p><p>New energy vehicle stocks rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Rose more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>(20.77, 1.59, 8.29%) automobiles rose more than 8%, and ideal (33.15, 1.35, 4.25%) automobiles rose more than 4%.</p><p>3. European stocks closed mixed, and the German DAX index rose 0.65%</p><p>European stocks closed mixed, with Germany's DAX index up 0.65% and France's CAC40 index down 0.06%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.66%.</p><p>4. New York crude oil futures fell 6.8% on Friday</p><p>New York crude oil futures prices closed down nearly 7% on Friday. Crude oil futures prices fell sharply amid concerns that rate hike, central banks of several major countries, could slow global economic growth and cut energy demand. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $8.02, or 6.82%, to settle at $109.56 a barrel.</p><p>5. New York gold futures prices closed down 0.5% on Friday and fell 1.9% this week.</p><p>New York gold futures prices closed lower on Friday, bringing their cumulative decline this week to about 1.9%. August gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.5% to close at $1,840.60 an ounce. Gold futures prices fell about 1.9% this week.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. The most hawkish remarks of the Federal Reserve are released! Commitment to restoring price stability is'unconditional '</p><p>On Friday, June 17, before Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell attends a U.S. Congressional hearing next week, the Federal Reserve released its semi-annual monetary policy report called \"the most hawkish language to fight inflation yet.\" Some analysts pointed out that the wording \"unconditional\" is the most hawkish term used by the Federal Reserve so far. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will attend a congressional hearing next Wednesday and Thursday to provide a blueprint for the latest central bank's semi-annual monetary policy report for his speech, which may mean that the market will \"continue to welcome Powell's hawkish release next week.\"</p><p>2. Powell: The Fed is \"strongly focused\" on bringing inflation back to 2%</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated his determination to curb the hottest inflation in 40 years and said the central bank is committed to encouraging the world to hold and trade in dollars. \"My colleagues and I are strongly focused on getting inflation back to our 2% target,\" he said in a welcome message prepared for Friday's Federal Reserve meeting on the international role of the dollar. \"The Federal Reserve's strong commitment to our price stability mission has increased broad confidence in the dollar as a store of value.\"</p><p>3. U.S. inflation has exploded, and the hawk and dove camp within the Federal Reserve is also in chaos</p><p>Inflation in the United States has exploded, and the hawk and dove camp within the Federal Reserve is also in chaos. George, the super hawkish Kansas City Fed President, explained why she voted against it as a rare dove at the June meeting. On the same day, dovish official Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari expressed his support for continuing the 75 basis point rate hike in July.</p><p>4. The food crisis is worse: Russian fertilizer manufacturers have cut exports by nearly 30%</p><p>Western sanctions against Russia are making the global food crisis, which has been hit by fertilizer prices, worse. On Friday, June 17 local time, Dmitry Konyaev, CEO of Uralchem, the parent company of Russian potash fertilizer producer Uralkali, told Russian media that Uralchem and Uralkali have cut fertilizer exports by 25-30% this year.</p><p>5. The Bank of England shows its \"fangs\", and the chief economist sends a 50 basis point signal on rate hike</p><p>A more aggressive shift in the stance of the Bank of England and the Treasury may come, with Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill suggesting that policymakers may take an unprecedented 50 basis point rate hike action if there is further evidence that high inflation is pushing up wages or prices. Wall Street big banks such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Everyone is betting that the Bank of England will conduct a 50-basis-point rate hike in August and September.</p><p>6. The Bank of Japan took action, and the arbitrage trade was caught off guard</p><p>While the Bank of Japan didn't \"capitulate\" as many traders expected on Friday, some parts of the Japanese bond market are crumbling as the Bank of Japan continues its efforts to rein in its policy objectives and repel those who short it.</p><p>A small adjustment to the bond-buying program by the Bank of Japan this week undermined an arbitrage strategy popular among overseas investors, known as basis trading. It has exacerbated the supply shortage of government bonds, increasing pressure on Japan's domestic financial institutions, leading them to turn to the Bank of Japan for help to ease the pressure.</p><p>7. Global central banks launched the most hawkish action since the 1980s, and the stock market headed for its largest weekly decline in two years</p><p>Three major central banks around the world raised borrowing costs this week, and they are also risking triggering a recession and financial market turmoil as they rush to cope with previously unforeseen surges in inflation. Global stock markets have fallen sharply this week, with the FTSE Global Index, which covers developed and emerging market stocks, down 5.5% this week, which would be its worst performance since the pandemic-triggered turmoil in March 2020.</p><p>8. The United States and Russia \"attacked from left to right\", European natural gas soared by 60% in a week, and the \"gas shortage\" escalated again!</p><p>European natural gas prices recorded their largest weekly increase since the Russia-Ukraine conflict due to the \"enemy\" in both sides. On Thursday morning local time, the European benchmark Dutch front-month TTF natural gas futures price once rose by 24%, and today it rose again by nearly 10%, bringing the one-week increase to 60%.</p><p>9. Multiple polls show that Biden's approval rate hits a new low</p><p>Recently, multiple U.S. media polls have shown that as inflation continues to rise and concerns about economic recession, U.S. President Biden's approval rating has hit a new low.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo!</a>Polls conducted by News Associated Yugov Research showed that Biden's approval rating has been on a downward trend for most of the past year.</p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine</p><p>1. Peskov: The possibility of resuming negotiations between Russia and Ukraine is not ruled out</p><p>On the 17th local time, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov said in an interview with RIA Novosti that the possibility of resuming negotiations between Russia and Ukraine was not ruled out, but Ukraine remained stagnant. Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum that since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia has been committed to developing relations with Ukraine.</p><p>2. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense disclosed military equipment battle damage data for the first time</p><p>Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Karpenko disclosed in an interview with foreign media on the 17th that since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Ukrainian army has lost about 50% of its heavy equipment, including about 1,300 armored vehicles, 400 tanks and 700 artillery pieces. He also said that international military support for Ukraine can meet 10% to 15% of the needs of the Ukrainian army.</p><p>3. The European Commission recommends granting Ukraine EU candidate status</p><p>On the 16th local time, Russia's Permanent Representative to the United Nations Nebenzia said that Ukraine's accession to the EU is not in Russia's interest, and EU countries are not the objects with which Russia will develop relations. On the same day, Chizhov, Russian Permanent Representative to the European Union, said at the 25th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum that the relationship between Russia and the European Union is at its lowest point since the establishment of the latter.</p><p>4. Russia expects to export 39.5 million tons of wheat next year but only trade with friendly countries</p><p>Russia's deputy prime minister said on Thursday that more wheat will be exported in the next agricultural year, but at the same time Russia's agriculture minister warned that it will only trade with friendly countries. Russia is also preparing to switch to rubles to pay for grain trade.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2244814435\" target=\"_blank\">The last \"Buffett Charity Lunch\" auction is coming to an end, and bidding has soared to US $12 million</a></p><p>The 2022 \"Buffett Charity Lunch\" will be held at 7:30 on June 13, Beijing time<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a>The platform started auction, with a starting price of USD 25,000. The auction will last for a week and end at 10:30 on June 18th, Beijing time. The first auction of Buffett's charity lunch began in 2000, and eBay has been used as the bidding platform since 2003. So far, it has raised 34 million dollars in donations, with four Chinese winning bidders in history. The winning bidder can bring up to seven people to dinner with Buffett in new york and ask him questions.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2244152144\" target=\"_blank\">Another commodity giant has made a profit: Glencore's first-half trading business profit has hit its full-year target</a></p><p>On Friday, June 17, Switzerland-based commodity trader and mining giant Glencore issued a statement saying that it expects the EBIT of its commodity trading business to exceed US $3.2 billion in the first half of this year, which is exactly in line with the company's full-year profit guidance. The upper limit of the range ($2.2 billion to $3.2 billion).</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2244143128\" target=\"_blank\">Several SpaceX employees fired for writing open letter criticizing Musk</a></p><p>According to an internal memo, SpaceX has fired \"several employees\" who earlier wrote an open letter criticizing CEO Elon Musk's actions; The extraordinary incident underscores the growing divide around Musk's controversial comments.</p><p>The open letter called Musk's behavior and his tweets \"often distracting and embarrassing us, especially in recent weeks.\"</p><p>4. Cross-border restructuring of European banking industry restarted?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0HB5.UK\">BNP Paribas</a>Interest in acquiring state-owned ABN AMRO</p><p>On Friday, June 17th, some media quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that BNP Paribas had expressed its interest in acquiring ABN Amro. ABN Amro is one of the largest multinational financial institutions in the Netherlands, with branches around the world, and ABN Amro ranks among the top European banks in terms of size and economic strength. ABN Amro has been under government control since the financial crisis. Some media said that BNP Paribas recently contacted the Dutch government to discuss the acquisition interest. What attracts BNP Paribas is ABN Amro's retail and corporate business, and the opportunity to expand in Northern Europe.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2244214234\" target=\"_blank\">First time! FDA approves Moderna, Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine for infants and young children over 6 months of age</a></p><p>On Friday, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) officially approved Pfizer and Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine for use in infants and toddlers as young as 6 months. The FDA's decision comes after its independent committee of vaccine experts weighed the vaccine's safety and effectiveness during a full-day meeting open to the public on Wednesday and unanimously voted to recommend vaccinations for infants and young children.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2244711784\" target=\"_blank\">Rivian intends to build large wind turbines at factory</a></p><p>Electric vehicle startup Rivian has announced that it will build large wind turbines at Normal's manufacturing campus. The turbine is designed to have a capacity of at least 2.8 MW and can generate nearly 10 million kilowatt-hours of electricity per year. The planned site for the large wind turbine is within the vehicle test track on the east side of Rivian's manufacturing campus. The area near Normal is known for its strong winds and already has a significant wind turbine.</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2244112558\" target=\"_blank\">Liulishuo finalizes private deal with $6.8 million valuation</a></p><p>Liulishuo said on Friday that it has signed a definitive merger agreement with Cayman Islands-based LLP-Prilingo to go private. In this transaction, Liulishuo's equity valuation is US $6.8 million, and each outstanding ADS will be revoked in exchange for US $1.90 in cash. This represents a 15.8% premium to the weighted average price of Liulishuo ADS in the 10 trading days prior to receipt of the revised \"go private\" proposal dated April 28, 2022.</p><p>8、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2244613192\" target=\"_blank\">Cannot escape the \"inflation robbery\" DuPont and other chemical stocks are bearish by Jefferies</a></p><p>Jefferies will DuPont,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EMN\">Eastman Chemical</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CE\">Celanese</a>, Taihuashi and International Fragrance Company were downgraded to \"hold\" from \"buy\" because inflation will endanger the return on investment of these chemical companies.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | The Fed's most hawkish remarks were released! The global food crisis is worsening</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | The Fed's most hawkish remarks were released! The global food crisis is worsening\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-18 08:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: ① U.S. stocks closed mixed on Friday, with the Dow falling 0.13% and the Nasdaq rising 1.43%; ② The most hawkish remarks of the Federal Reserve are released! The commitment to restoring price stability is \"unconditional\"; ③ The food crisis has worsened, and the export volume of Russian fertilizer producers has been reduced by nearly 30%; ④ Central banks around the world set off the most hawkish action since 1980s, and the stock market headed for the biggest weekly decline in two years. Overseas Market</p><p>1. U.S. stocks closed mixed on Friday, with the Dow down 0.13% and the Nasdaq up 1.43%.</p><p>U.S. stocks closed mixed on Friday, with the Dow down 0.13%, the Nasdaq up 1.43%, and the S&P 500 up 0.22%. The S&P 500 recorded its worst weekly performance since March 2020.</p><p>On the disk, large technology stocks rose across the board.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Up 1.15%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Up 1.09%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Up 1.15%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>It rose 2.47%, and Meta rose 1.78%.</p><p>2. Popular Chinese concept stocks generally rebounded at the close on Friday, while new energy vehicle stocks rose</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily excellent fresh</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">Water droplets</a>The company rose more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUTU\">Futu Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LU\">Lufax</a>Holding,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Mavericks Electric</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QD\">Fun shop</a>, EHang rose more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">Yixian E-commerce</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIOT\">Yunmi Technology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">Lychee</a>Up nearly 4%.</p><p>New energy vehicle stocks rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Rose more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>(20.77, 1.59, 8.29%) automobiles rose more than 8%, and ideal (33.15, 1.35, 4.25%) automobiles rose more than 4%.</p><p>3. European stocks closed mixed, and the German DAX index rose 0.65%</p><p>European stocks closed mixed, with Germany's DAX index up 0.65% and France's CAC40 index down 0.06%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.66%.</p><p>4. New York crude oil futures fell 6.8% on Friday</p><p>New York crude oil futures prices closed down nearly 7% on Friday. Crude oil futures prices fell sharply amid concerns that rate hike, central banks of several major countries, could slow global economic growth and cut energy demand. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $8.02, or 6.82%, to settle at $109.56 a barrel.</p><p>5. New York gold futures prices closed down 0.5% on Friday and fell 1.9% this week.</p><p>New York gold futures prices closed lower on Friday, bringing their cumulative decline this week to about 1.9%. August gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.5% to close at $1,840.60 an ounce. Gold futures prices fell about 1.9% this week.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. The most hawkish remarks of the Federal Reserve are released! Commitment to restoring price stability is'unconditional '</p><p>On Friday, June 17, before Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell attends a U.S. Congressional hearing next week, the Federal Reserve released its semi-annual monetary policy report called \"the most hawkish language to fight inflation yet.\" Some analysts pointed out that the wording \"unconditional\" is the most hawkish term used by the Federal Reserve so far. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will attend a congressional hearing next Wednesday and Thursday to provide a blueprint for the latest central bank's semi-annual monetary policy report for his speech, which may mean that the market will \"continue to welcome Powell's hawkish release next week.\"</p><p>2. Powell: The Fed is \"strongly focused\" on bringing inflation back to 2%</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated his determination to curb the hottest inflation in 40 years and said the central bank is committed to encouraging the world to hold and trade in dollars. \"My colleagues and I are strongly focused on getting inflation back to our 2% target,\" he said in a welcome message prepared for Friday's Federal Reserve meeting on the international role of the dollar. \"The Federal Reserve's strong commitment to our price stability mission has increased broad confidence in the dollar as a store of value.\"</p><p>3. U.S. inflation has exploded, and the hawk and dove camp within the Federal Reserve is also in chaos</p><p>Inflation in the United States has exploded, and the hawk and dove camp within the Federal Reserve is also in chaos. George, the super hawkish Kansas City Fed President, explained why she voted against it as a rare dove at the June meeting. On the same day, dovish official Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari expressed his support for continuing the 75 basis point rate hike in July.</p><p>4. The food crisis is worse: Russian fertilizer manufacturers have cut exports by nearly 30%</p><p>Western sanctions against Russia are making the global food crisis, which has been hit by fertilizer prices, worse. On Friday, June 17 local time, Dmitry Konyaev, CEO of Uralchem, the parent company of Russian potash fertilizer producer Uralkali, told Russian media that Uralchem and Uralkali have cut fertilizer exports by 25-30% this year.</p><p>5. The Bank of England shows its \"fangs\", and the chief economist sends a 50 basis point signal on rate hike</p><p>A more aggressive shift in the stance of the Bank of England and the Treasury may come, with Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill suggesting that policymakers may take an unprecedented 50 basis point rate hike action if there is further evidence that high inflation is pushing up wages or prices. Wall Street big banks such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Everyone is betting that the Bank of England will conduct a 50-basis-point rate hike in August and September.</p><p>6. The Bank of Japan took action, and the arbitrage trade was caught off guard</p><p>While the Bank of Japan didn't \"capitulate\" as many traders expected on Friday, some parts of the Japanese bond market are crumbling as the Bank of Japan continues its efforts to rein in its policy objectives and repel those who short it.</p><p>A small adjustment to the bond-buying program by the Bank of Japan this week undermined an arbitrage strategy popular among overseas investors, known as basis trading. It has exacerbated the supply shortage of government bonds, increasing pressure on Japan's domestic financial institutions, leading them to turn to the Bank of Japan for help to ease the pressure.</p><p>7. Global central banks launched the most hawkish action since the 1980s, and the stock market headed for its largest weekly decline in two years</p><p>Three major central banks around the world raised borrowing costs this week, and they are also risking triggering a recession and financial market turmoil as they rush to cope with previously unforeseen surges in inflation. Global stock markets have fallen sharply this week, with the FTSE Global Index, which covers developed and emerging market stocks, down 5.5% this week, which would be its worst performance since the pandemic-triggered turmoil in March 2020.</p><p>8. The United States and Russia \"attacked from left to right\", European natural gas soared by 60% in a week, and the \"gas shortage\" escalated again!</p><p>European natural gas prices recorded their largest weekly increase since the Russia-Ukraine conflict due to the \"enemy\" in both sides. On Thursday morning local time, the European benchmark Dutch front-month TTF natural gas futures price once rose by 24%, and today it rose again by nearly 10%, bringing the one-week increase to 60%.</p><p>9. Multiple polls show that Biden's approval rate hits a new low</p><p>Recently, multiple U.S. media polls have shown that as inflation continues to rise and concerns about economic recession, U.S. President Biden's approval rating has hit a new low.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo!</a>Polls conducted by News Associated Yugov Research showed that Biden's approval rating has been on a downward trend for most of the past year.</p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine</p><p>1. Peskov: The possibility of resuming negotiations between Russia and Ukraine is not ruled out</p><p>On the 17th local time, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov said in an interview with RIA Novosti that the possibility of resuming negotiations between Russia and Ukraine was not ruled out, but Ukraine remained stagnant. Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum that since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia has been committed to developing relations with Ukraine.</p><p>2. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense disclosed military equipment battle damage data for the first time</p><p>Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Karpenko disclosed in an interview with foreign media on the 17th that since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Ukrainian army has lost about 50% of its heavy equipment, including about 1,300 armored vehicles, 400 tanks and 700 artillery pieces. He also said that international military support for Ukraine can meet 10% to 15% of the needs of the Ukrainian army.</p><p>3. The European Commission recommends granting Ukraine EU candidate status</p><p>On the 16th local time, Russia's Permanent Representative to the United Nations Nebenzia said that Ukraine's accession to the EU is not in Russia's interest, and EU countries are not the objects with which Russia will develop relations. On the same day, Chizhov, Russian Permanent Representative to the European Union, said at the 25th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum that the relationship between Russia and the European Union is at its lowest point since the establishment of the latter.</p><p>4. Russia expects to export 39.5 million tons of wheat next year but only trade with friendly countries</p><p>Russia's deputy prime minister said on Thursday that more wheat will be exported in the next agricultural year, but at the same time Russia's agriculture minister warned that it will only trade with friendly countries. Russia is also preparing to switch to rubles to pay for grain trade.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2244814435\" target=\"_blank\">The last \"Buffett Charity Lunch\" auction is coming to an end, and bidding has soared to US $12 million</a></p><p>The 2022 \"Buffett Charity Lunch\" will be held at 7:30 on June 13, Beijing time<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a>The platform started auction, with a starting price of USD 25,000. The auction will last for a week and end at 10:30 on June 18th, Beijing time. The first auction of Buffett's charity lunch began in 2000, and eBay has been used as the bidding platform since 2003. So far, it has raised 34 million dollars in donations, with four Chinese winning bidders in history. The winning bidder can bring up to seven people to dinner with Buffett in new york and ask him questions.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2244152144\" target=\"_blank\">Another commodity giant has made a profit: Glencore's first-half trading business profit has hit its full-year target</a></p><p>On Friday, June 17, Switzerland-based commodity trader and mining giant Glencore issued a statement saying that it expects the EBIT of its commodity trading business to exceed US $3.2 billion in the first half of this year, which is exactly in line with the company's full-year profit guidance. The upper limit of the range ($2.2 billion to $3.2 billion).</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2244143128\" target=\"_blank\">Several SpaceX employees fired for writing open letter criticizing Musk</a></p><p>According to an internal memo, SpaceX has fired \"several employees\" who earlier wrote an open letter criticizing CEO Elon Musk's actions; The extraordinary incident underscores the growing divide around Musk's controversial comments.</p><p>The open letter called Musk's behavior and his tweets \"often distracting and embarrassing us, especially in recent weeks.\"</p><p>4. Cross-border restructuring of European banking industry restarted?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0HB5.UK\">BNP Paribas</a>Interest in acquiring state-owned ABN AMRO</p><p>On Friday, June 17th, some media quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that BNP Paribas had expressed its interest in acquiring ABN Amro. ABN Amro is one of the largest multinational financial institutions in the Netherlands, with branches around the world, and ABN Amro ranks among the top European banks in terms of size and economic strength. ABN Amro has been under government control since the financial crisis. Some media said that BNP Paribas recently contacted the Dutch government to discuss the acquisition interest. What attracts BNP Paribas is ABN Amro's retail and corporate business, and the opportunity to expand in Northern Europe.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2244214234\" target=\"_blank\">First time! FDA approves Moderna, Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine for infants and young children over 6 months of age</a></p><p>On Friday, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) officially approved Pfizer and Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine for use in infants and toddlers as young as 6 months. The FDA's decision comes after its independent committee of vaccine experts weighed the vaccine's safety and effectiveness during a full-day meeting open to the public on Wednesday and unanimously voted to recommend vaccinations for infants and young children.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2244711784\" target=\"_blank\">Rivian intends to build large wind turbines at factory</a></p><p>Electric vehicle startup Rivian has announced that it will build large wind turbines at Normal's manufacturing campus. The turbine is designed to have a capacity of at least 2.8 MW and can generate nearly 10 million kilowatt-hours of electricity per year. The planned site for the large wind turbine is within the vehicle test track on the east side of Rivian's manufacturing campus. The area near Normal is known for its strong winds and already has a significant wind turbine.</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2244112558\" target=\"_blank\">Liulishuo finalizes private deal with $6.8 million valuation</a></p><p>Liulishuo said on Friday that it has signed a definitive merger agreement with Cayman Islands-based LLP-Prilingo to go private. In this transaction, Liulishuo's equity valuation is US $6.8 million, and each outstanding ADS will be revoked in exchange for US $1.90 in cash. This represents a 15.8% premium to the weighted average price of Liulishuo ADS in the 10 trading days prior to receipt of the revised \"go private\" proposal dated April 28, 2022.</p><p>8、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2244613192\" target=\"_blank\">Cannot escape the \"inflation robbery\" DuPont and other chemical stocks are bearish by Jefferies</a></p><p>Jefferies will DuPont,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EMN\">Eastman Chemical</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CE\">Celanese</a>, Taihuashi and International Fragrance Company were downgraded to \"hold\" from \"buy\" because inflation will endanger the return on investment of these chemical companies.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153597517","content_text":"摘要：①美股周五收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.13%，纳指涨1.43%；②美联储最鹰派言论出炉！对恢复价格稳定的承诺是“无条件的”；③粮食危机雪上加霜，俄罗斯化肥生产商出口量削减近三成；④全球央行掀起80年代以来最鹰派行动，股市迈向两年最大周跌幅。海外市场1、周五美股收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.13%，纳指涨1.43%美股周五收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.13%，纳指涨1.43%，标普500指数涨0.22%，其中标普500指数创下2020年3月以来的最差周度表现。盘面上，大型科技股全线走高，苹果涨1.15%，微软涨1.09%，谷歌涨1.15%，亚马逊涨2.47%，Meta涨1.78%。2、热门中概股周五收盘普遍反弹，新能源汽车股走高贝壳、每日优鲜、水滴公司涨超6%，京东、富途控股、陆金所控股、小牛电动、趣店、亿航涨超5%，逸仙电商、云米科技、荔枝涨近4%。新能源汽车股走高，小鹏汽车涨超9%，蔚来(20.77,1.59,8.29%)汽车涨超8%，理想(33.15,1.35,4.25%)汽车涨超4%。3、欧股收盘涨跌不一德国DAX指数涨0.65%欧股收盘涨跌不一，德国DAX指数涨0.65%，法国CAC40指数跌0.06%，英国富时100指数跌0.66%。4、纽约原油期货周五重挫6.8%纽约原油期货价格周五收跌近7%。由于担心多个大国央行加息可能减缓全球经济增长并削减能源需求，原油期货价格大幅下跌。纽约商品交易所7月交割的西德州中质原油(WTI)期货价格下跌8.02美元，跌幅为6.82%，收于每桶109.56美元。5、纽约黄金期货价格周五收跌0.5%，本周下跌1.9%纽约黄金期货价格周五收跌，使其本周累计跌幅达到约1.9%。纽约商品交易所8月价格的黄金期货价格下跌0.5%，报收于每盎司1840.60美元。本周黄金期货价格累跌约1.9%。国际宏观1、美联储最鹰派言论出炉！对恢复价格稳定的承诺是“无条件的”6月17日周五，在美联储主席鲍威尔下周出席美国国会听证之前，美联储发布了被称为“迄今为止最鹰派抗击通胀措辞”的半年度货币政策报告。有分析指出，“无条件”这一措辞是美联储迄今为止最鹰派的用语。美联储主席鲍威尔将于下周三、四出席国会听证，为其发言提供蓝本的最新央行半年度货币政策报告，或意味着市场将“继续迎接下周鲍威尔放鹰”。2、鲍威尔：美联储“强烈专注于”让通胀回归2%美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔重申了遏制40年来最热通胀的决心，并表示美联储致力于鼓励全球持有美元并以美元进行交易。“我和我的同事强烈专注于让通胀回到我们2%的目标水平，”他为周五关于美元所扮演国际角色的美联储会议准备的欢迎致辞中表示。 “美联储对我们的价格稳定使命的坚定承诺，增强了人们将美元作为价值存储工具的广泛信心。”3、美国通胀爆表，美联储内部的鹰鸽阵营也乱了美国通胀爆表，美联储内部的鹰鸽阵营也乱了。超级鹰派的堪萨斯城联储主席George，解释了她为何在6月会议上作为少有的鸽派，投下反对票。同日，鸽派官员明尼阿波利斯联储主席Kashkari则表态支持7月继续加息75个基点。4、粮食危机雪上加霜：俄罗斯化肥生产商出口量削减近三成西方对俄制裁正在让备受化肥价格冲击的全球粮食危机雪上加霜。当地时间6月17日周五，俄罗斯钾肥生产商Uralkali母公司Uralchem的CEO Dmitry Konyaev对俄罗斯媒体表示，Uralchem和Uralkali已将今年的化肥出口量削减了25-30%。5、英国央行露出“獠牙”，首席经济学家发出加息50基点信号英国央行和财政部更激进的立场转向或将到来，英国央行首席经济学家Huw Pill暗示，如果有进一步的证据表明高通胀正在推高工资或物价，决策者或采取加息50个基点的史无前例行动。华尔街大行如高盛和德意志银行都纷纷押注英国央行在8月和9月会连续加息50个基点。6、日本央行出手，套利交易被打的措手不及虽然日本央行周五并没有像很多交易员预期的那样“投降”，但是随着日本央行继续努力控制其政策目标并击退那些做空它的人，日本债券市场的一些部分正在崩溃。本周日本央行对债券购买计划的一个小调整，破坏了一种在海外投资者中很受欢迎的套利策略，即基差交易。它加剧了政府债券的供应短缺，加大了日本国内金融机构的压力，导致它们向日本央行寻求帮助以缓解压力。7、全球央行掀起80年代以来最鹰派行动，股市迈向两年最大周跌幅本周全球有三家主要央行提高了借贷成本，它们在匆忙应对此前没有预见到的通胀飙升之际，也正冒着引发经济衰退和金融市场动荡的风险。全球股市本周大幅下跌，涵盖发达市场和新兴市场股票的富时全球指数本周以来下跌了5.5%，这将是自2020年3月疫情引发动荡以来的最差表现。8、美俄“左右夹击”，欧洲天然气一周暴涨60%，“气荒”再次升级！由于腹背受“敌”，欧洲天然气价格创下自俄乌冲突以来最大的单周涨幅。当地时间周四上午，欧洲基准的荷兰近月TTF天然气期货价格一度上涨24%，今日再度上涨近10%，令一周的涨幅达到了60%。9、多份民调显示拜登支持率创新低近日，多份美国媒体民意调查显示，随着通胀持续上升以及对经济衰退的担忧，美国总统拜登的支持率又创新低。雅虎新闻联合尤戈夫调查公司进行的民调显示，拜登的支持率在过去一年中的大部分时间呈下降趋势。俄乌局势1、佩斯科夫：并不排除俄罗斯与乌克兰恢复谈判的可能性当地时间17日，俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫在接受俄新社采访时表示，并不排除俄罗斯与乌克兰恢复谈判的可能性，但乌方仍停滞在原地。稍早时候，俄罗斯总统普京在圣彼得堡国际经济论坛全会上表示，自苏联解体以来，俄罗斯一直致力于发展同乌克兰的关系。2、乌克兰国防部首次披露军事装备战损数据乌克兰国防部副部长卡尔彭科17日接受外国媒体采访时披露，自俄乌冲突爆发以来，乌军已损失约50%的重型装备，包括大约1300辆装甲车，400辆坦克和700门火炮。他还表示，国际对乌军事支持能满足乌克兰军队需求的10%到15%。3、欧委会建议给予乌克兰欧盟候选国地位当地时间16日，俄罗斯常驻联合国代表涅边贾表示，乌克兰加入欧盟不符合俄罗斯利益，同时欧盟国家不属于俄罗斯将与其发展关系的对象。当天，俄罗斯常驻欧盟代表奇若夫在第25届圣彼得堡国际经济论坛上表示，目前俄罗斯与欧盟的关系处于后者成立以来的最低点。4、俄罗斯预计下年度小麦出口3950万吨 但只与友好国家贸易俄罗斯副总理周四表示下一农业年度将出口更多小麦，但同时俄罗斯农业部长警告将只与友好国家进行贸易。俄罗斯也在对改用卢布支付粮食贸易进行准备。公司新闻1、最后一届“巴菲特慈善午餐”拍卖进入尾声 竞价已飙至1200万美元2022年的“巴菲特慈善午餐”于北京时间6月13日7时30分在eBay平台开拍，起拍价为2.5万美元，竞拍将持续一周，到北京时间6月18日10时30分结束。巴菲特慈善午餐的首次拍卖始于2000年，并自2003年起将eBay作为竞拍平台，迄今为止已募集了3400万美元的善款，历史上共有4位中国中标者。拍卖中标者最多可带7人与巴菲特在纽约共同进餐，并向他提出问题。2、又一个商品巨头赚翻了：嘉能可上半年的贸易业务利润已实现全年目标6月17日周五，总部位于瑞士的大宗商品贸易商和矿业巨头嘉能可发布声明称，预计今年上半年商品贸易业务的息税前利润将超过32亿美元，恰好位于公司对全年利润指引的区间上限(22亿至32亿美元)。3、SpaceX数名员工因撰写公开信批评马斯克而被解雇根据一份内部备忘录，SpaceX已经解雇了“数名员工”，他们早前撰写了一封公开信批评首席执行官伊隆·马斯克的行为；这起非同寻常的事件凸显了围绕马斯克争议性言论的分歧越来越大。这封公开信称马斯克的行为和他的推文“经常让我们分心，令我们感到尴尬，尤其是最近几周”。4、欧洲银行业跨境重组重启？ 法国巴黎银行有意收购国有荷兰银行6月17日周五，有媒体援引知情人士的话说，法国巴黎银行已经表达了有意收购荷兰银行的兴趣。荷兰银行是荷兰最大的跨国金融机构之一，在世界各地设有分支机构，荷兰银行的规模和经济实力在欧洲银行中排名前列。荷兰银行自金融危机以来一直在政府控制下。有媒体称，法国巴黎银行最近与荷兰政府接触，讨论了收购兴趣。吸引法巴的是荷兰银行的零售和企业业务，和在北欧扩张的机会。5、首次！FDA批准莫得纳、辉瑞的新冠疫苗用于6个月以上的婴幼儿周五，美国食品和药物管理局(FDA)正式批准辉瑞和Moderna的新冠疫苗可用于6个月大的婴幼儿。FDA做出这一决定之前，其独立疫苗专家委员会在周三向公众开放的全天会议上权衡了疫苗的安全性和有效性，一致投票推荐婴幼儿接种疫苗。6、Rivian拟在工厂建造大型风力涡轮机电动汽车初创公司Rivian宣布，将在Normal制造园区建造大型风力涡轮机。该涡轮机的设计容量至少为2.8兆瓦，每年能产生近1000万千瓦时的电力。大型风力涡轮机的计划选址在Rivian制造园区东侧的车辆测试轨道内。Normal附近的地区以强风著称，并已有一个重要的风力涡轮机。7、流利说以680万美元估值敲定私有化交易流利说周五表示，公司已与开曼群岛的LLP - Prilingo签署了最终合并协议以进行私有化。此次交易中，流利说的股权估值为680万美元，每一股流通在外的ADS将被撤销，以换取1.90美元现金。这意味着在收到日期为2022年4月28日的修订后的“私有化”建议书之前的10个交易日内，流利说ADS的加权平均价格有15.8%溢价。8、难逃“通胀劫”杜邦等化工股遭杰富瑞看空杰富瑞将杜邦、伊士曼化工、塞拉尼斯、泰华施和国际香料公司的评级由“买入”下调至“持有“，原因是通胀将危及这些化工企业的投资回报率。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513500":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SSO":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SH":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"OEF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":745,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9054726946,"gmtCreate":1655428877386,"gmtModify":1676535637671,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9054726946","repostId":"1189191977","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9054331533,"gmtCreate":1655342363522,"gmtModify":1676535618117,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9054331533","repostId":"2243940692","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2243940692","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1655329084,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2243940692?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-16 05:38","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Foreign media headlines | The Federal Reserve made a sharp rate hike of 75 basis points, firmly promising to reduce inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2243940692","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"　　为应对通胀飙升和金融市场动荡，美国联邦公开市场委员会当地时间周三公布最新利率决议，将基准利率上调75个基点至1.50%-1.75%区间，为1994年来最大幅度的加息。投反对票者是堪萨斯城联储主席乔治，她更偏向小幅加息0.5个百分点。　　美联储声明表示，高度关注通胀风险，“坚决承诺”将通胀率恢复到2%，并重申认为持续加息是适当的。通胀仍然高企，反映出与疫情有关的供需失衡、能源价格上涨和更广泛的物价压力。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. The Fed's rate hike of 75 basis points is the largest in 28 years. rate hike \"firmly committed\" to restoring inflation to 2%.</b><b>2. Moscow once again resorted to \"natural gas weapons\", and gas supply to Europe's largest buyer dropped sharply</b><b>3. U.S. retail sales fell for first time in five months as auto sales plummeted</b><b>4. The European Central Bank accelerates preparations for crisis response tools after the Italian Treasury Bond crash</b><b>5. U.S. homebuilder confidence index falls to two-year low, demand weakens</b><b>6. The U.S. Transportation Safety Administration releases an accident report on automatic assisted driving systems:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>There were 273 crashes</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dffa0dd749a02dd346347e78d9cec58f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Fed's rate hike of 75 basis points is the largest in 28 years, rate hike \"firmly committed\" to restoring inflation to 2% [Special Report]</b></p><p>In response to soaring inflation and financial market turmoil, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday local time, raising the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to the range of 1.50%-1.75%, the largest rate hike since 1994.</p><p>Federal Reserve officials voted 10-1 to pass the interest rate decision. Those who voted against it were Kansas City Fed President George, who preferred a small rate hike by 0.5 percentage points.</p><p>The Fed statement said it was highly concerned about inflation risks, \"firmly committed\" to returning inflation to 2%, and reiterated its belief that continued rate hike is appropriate. It claims that the information received will continue to be monitored for its impact on the economic outlook when assessing appropriate policy positions. The Committee is prepared to adjust its monetary policy stance as appropriate should risks arise that may hinder the Committee from achieving its objectives.</p><p>Regarding the current situation of the U.S. economy, the Federal Reserve said in a statement that overall economic activity seems to have picked up after a slight decline in the first quarter. Job growth has been strong in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains high, reflecting pandemic-related supply-demand imbalances, higher energy prices and broader price pressures.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30c971d1d72c71b0ac59624878d6bbca\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Moscow once again resorts to \"natural gas weapon\", gas supply to Europe's largest buyer drops sharply</b></p><p>Russia continues to use energy as a weapon to further reduce the amount of natural gas exported through the largest pipeline to Europe.</p><p>Gazprom is reducing pipeline gas deliveries to Germany via Nord Stream by 60%, on a larger scale than announced on Tuesday. The move led to a further 15% reduction in gas supplies to Italy, putting more pressure on the already tight European energy market, and gas prices soared by more than 25%.</p><p>German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said Russia is trying to shake the market and raise prices, but the security of supply is still guaranteed. The restrictions have reignited tensions with Moscow, after the Russian government eased its attitude after several European countries found ways to pay for gas in rubles.</p><p>Thierry Bros, a professor at Sciences Po in Paris and a former energy analyst, said, \"The industry must prepare for Russia to completely stop natural gas supplies. Those companies that have previously continued to obtain Russian natural gas supplies through compromise should understand that the Kremlin may change its face at any time.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a3bc202b652f566dd1c5e619e80e5e7\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>U.S. retail sales fall for first time in five months as auto sales tumble</b></p><p>U.S. retail sales fell for the first time in five months in May, as sales of automobiles and other big-ticket goods plummeted, indicating a slowdown in demand for goods.</p><p>Data released by the Ministry of Commerce on Wednesday showed that total retail sales fell 0.3% month-on-month in May; It was revised down to an increase of 0.7% in April. Retail sales excluding cars rose 0.5% in May. These numbers are not adjusted for inflation.</p><p>The median expectation of economists surveyed by the media is that retail sales in May will increase by 0.1% month-on-month, and retail sales excluding automobiles will increase by 0.7% month-on-month.</p><p>Car sales fell 3.5% in May, backing up Wards Automotive Group's data that sales for the month were the biggest drop since August. At the same time, sales at gas stations rose 4%, likely reflecting higher gas prices. Retail sales excluding these items rose 0.1% in May, the smallest increase in five months.</p><p>The data suggests that Americans' demand for goods is weakening, possibly reflecting the impact of the highest inflation in decades or because Americans prefer to spend money on services such as travel and entertainment. As price pressures become more entrenched in the economy, spending may ebb because of higher prices and/or higher interest rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0e6a0467ba43e6969eaf9b62ff59f38\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>ECB accelerates preparations for crisis response tools after Italian Treasury Bond crash</b></p><p>With the prospect of the first rate hike in more than a decade weighing on markets, the European Central Bank has directed the relevant committee to create a new tool to address the unwarranted surge in eurozone bond yields.</p><p>After Italian Treasury Bond yields soared to their highest level since the European sovereign debt crisis, the European Central Bank's Governing Council held an emergency meeting on Wednesday and said it would flexibly use the redemption and reinvestment of its anti-epidemic emergency bond purchase program portfolio to maintain monetary policy transmission mechanism. functioning.</p><p>\"The pandemic has left lasting vulnerabilities in the euro zone economy and has indeed led to the uneven transmission of our monetary policy normalization across different countries and regions,\" the ECB said in a statement.</p><p>The European Central Bank held an impromptu meeting on Wednesday, which surprised the market. Market conditions have deteriorated significantly since the release of the rate hike Plan last week.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ca21dc84fd49e66b72d0a5f1ddb5ab4\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>U.S. homebuilder confidence slides to two-year low, demand weakens</b></p><p>The U.S. homebuilder confidence index fell to a two-year low in June as rising inflation and higher mortgage rates weighed on housing demand.</p><p>According to National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>According to data released on Wednesday, the index fell 2 points to 67 in June, its lowest level since June 2020. This is also the sixth consecutive decline of the index.</p><p>Homebuilders are facing a general slowdown in the housing market. The rapid climb in mortgage rates has eroded home affordability and led to a slowdown in residential sales in recent months. At the same time, lead times for materials remain long, costs are high, and labor remains hard to find.</p><p>\"The housing market faces both demand-side and supply-side challenges,\" Robert Dietz, chief economist at NAHB, said in a statement. \"The cost of residential building materials rose 19% year-on-year, and the cost of various construction inputs rose.\"</p><p>\"On the demand side of the market, the rise in mortgage rates in the first half of 2022 has shut out a lot of potential homebuyers,\" he said.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/926d4e9b156c302149cc5fa04bcd6707\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The U.S. Transportation Safety Administration releases automatic assisted driving system accident report: Tesla has 273 crashes</b></p><p>According to reports, Tesla recently provided some new data to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), reporting the vast majority of crashes involving Autonomous Driving Assistance Systems (ADAS).</p><p>The NHTSA said that between July 2021 and May 15 this year, 12 auto companies reported 367 such crashes to it. Among them, Tesla accounted for 273 cases. Of the 98 serious collisions, 11 resulted in serious injuries or fatalities. Another 294 incidents did not provide information on injuries.</p><p>Following Tesla is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HMC\">Honda Motor</a>Company, with 90 crashes, while Subaru disclosed 10 crashes. Includes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota Motors</a>All the other manufacturers mentioned five or fewer collisions.</p><p>The aforementioned data was collected in accordance with a June 2021 order requiring automakers and tech companies to report the incidents. The move comes as some safety advocates are calling on regulators and lawmakers to do more to enact stricter rules for so-called autonomous vehicles. Nowadays, autonomous driving technology is becoming more and more popular with users.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign media headlines | The Federal Reserve made a sharp rate hike of 75 basis points, firmly promising to reduce inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign media headlines | The Federal Reserve made a sharp rate hike of 75 basis points, firmly promising to reduce inflation\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-16 05:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. The Fed's rate hike of 75 basis points is the largest in 28 years. rate hike \"firmly committed\" to restoring inflation to 2%.</b><b>2. Moscow once again resorted to \"natural gas weapons\", and gas supply to Europe's largest buyer dropped sharply</b><b>3. U.S. retail sales fell for first time in five months as auto sales plummeted</b><b>4. The European Central Bank accelerates preparations for crisis response tools after the Italian Treasury Bond crash</b><b>5. U.S. homebuilder confidence index falls to two-year low, demand weakens</b><b>6. The U.S. Transportation Safety Administration releases an accident report on automatic assisted driving systems:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>There were 273 crashes</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dffa0dd749a02dd346347e78d9cec58f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Fed's rate hike of 75 basis points is the largest in 28 years, rate hike \"firmly committed\" to restoring inflation to 2% [Special Report]</b></p><p>In response to soaring inflation and financial market turmoil, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday local time, raising the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to the range of 1.50%-1.75%, the largest rate hike since 1994.</p><p>Federal Reserve officials voted 10-1 to pass the interest rate decision. Those who voted against it were Kansas City Fed President George, who preferred a small rate hike by 0.5 percentage points.</p><p>The Fed statement said it was highly concerned about inflation risks, \"firmly committed\" to returning inflation to 2%, and reiterated its belief that continued rate hike is appropriate. It claims that the information received will continue to be monitored for its impact on the economic outlook when assessing appropriate policy positions. The Committee is prepared to adjust its monetary policy stance as appropriate should risks arise that may hinder the Committee from achieving its objectives.</p><p>Regarding the current situation of the U.S. economy, the Federal Reserve said in a statement that overall economic activity seems to have picked up after a slight decline in the first quarter. Job growth has been strong in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains high, reflecting pandemic-related supply-demand imbalances, higher energy prices and broader price pressures.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30c971d1d72c71b0ac59624878d6bbca\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Moscow once again resorts to \"natural gas weapon\", gas supply to Europe's largest buyer drops sharply</b></p><p>Russia continues to use energy as a weapon to further reduce the amount of natural gas exported through the largest pipeline to Europe.</p><p>Gazprom is reducing pipeline gas deliveries to Germany via Nord Stream by 60%, on a larger scale than announced on Tuesday. The move led to a further 15% reduction in gas supplies to Italy, putting more pressure on the already tight European energy market, and gas prices soared by more than 25%.</p><p>German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said Russia is trying to shake the market and raise prices, but the security of supply is still guaranteed. The restrictions have reignited tensions with Moscow, after the Russian government eased its attitude after several European countries found ways to pay for gas in rubles.</p><p>Thierry Bros, a professor at Sciences Po in Paris and a former energy analyst, said, \"The industry must prepare for Russia to completely stop natural gas supplies. Those companies that have previously continued to obtain Russian natural gas supplies through compromise should understand that the Kremlin may change its face at any time.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a3bc202b652f566dd1c5e619e80e5e7\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>U.S. retail sales fall for first time in five months as auto sales tumble</b></p><p>U.S. retail sales fell for the first time in five months in May, as sales of automobiles and other big-ticket goods plummeted, indicating a slowdown in demand for goods.</p><p>Data released by the Ministry of Commerce on Wednesday showed that total retail sales fell 0.3% month-on-month in May; It was revised down to an increase of 0.7% in April. Retail sales excluding cars rose 0.5% in May. These numbers are not adjusted for inflation.</p><p>The median expectation of economists surveyed by the media is that retail sales in May will increase by 0.1% month-on-month, and retail sales excluding automobiles will increase by 0.7% month-on-month.</p><p>Car sales fell 3.5% in May, backing up Wards Automotive Group's data that sales for the month were the biggest drop since August. At the same time, sales at gas stations rose 4%, likely reflecting higher gas prices. Retail sales excluding these items rose 0.1% in May, the smallest increase in five months.</p><p>The data suggests that Americans' demand for goods is weakening, possibly reflecting the impact of the highest inflation in decades or because Americans prefer to spend money on services such as travel and entertainment. As price pressures become more entrenched in the economy, spending may ebb because of higher prices and/or higher interest rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0e6a0467ba43e6969eaf9b62ff59f38\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>ECB accelerates preparations for crisis response tools after Italian Treasury Bond crash</b></p><p>With the prospect of the first rate hike in more than a decade weighing on markets, the European Central Bank has directed the relevant committee to create a new tool to address the unwarranted surge in eurozone bond yields.</p><p>After Italian Treasury Bond yields soared to their highest level since the European sovereign debt crisis, the European Central Bank's Governing Council held an emergency meeting on Wednesday and said it would flexibly use the redemption and reinvestment of its anti-epidemic emergency bond purchase program portfolio to maintain monetary policy transmission mechanism. functioning.</p><p>\"The pandemic has left lasting vulnerabilities in the euro zone economy and has indeed led to the uneven transmission of our monetary policy normalization across different countries and regions,\" the ECB said in a statement.</p><p>The European Central Bank held an impromptu meeting on Wednesday, which surprised the market. Market conditions have deteriorated significantly since the release of the rate hike Plan last week.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ca21dc84fd49e66b72d0a5f1ddb5ab4\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>U.S. homebuilder confidence slides to two-year low, demand weakens</b></p><p>The U.S. homebuilder confidence index fell to a two-year low in June as rising inflation and higher mortgage rates weighed on housing demand.</p><p>According to National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>According to data released on Wednesday, the index fell 2 points to 67 in June, its lowest level since June 2020. This is also the sixth consecutive decline of the index.</p><p>Homebuilders are facing a general slowdown in the housing market. The rapid climb in mortgage rates has eroded home affordability and led to a slowdown in residential sales in recent months. At the same time, lead times for materials remain long, costs are high, and labor remains hard to find.</p><p>\"The housing market faces both demand-side and supply-side challenges,\" Robert Dietz, chief economist at NAHB, said in a statement. \"The cost of residential building materials rose 19% year-on-year, and the cost of various construction inputs rose.\"</p><p>\"On the demand side of the market, the rise in mortgage rates in the first half of 2022 has shut out a lot of potential homebuyers,\" he said.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/926d4e9b156c302149cc5fa04bcd6707\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The U.S. Transportation Safety Administration releases automatic assisted driving system accident report: Tesla has 273 crashes</b></p><p>According to reports, Tesla recently provided some new data to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), reporting the vast majority of crashes involving Autonomous Driving Assistance Systems (ADAS).</p><p>The NHTSA said that between July 2021 and May 15 this year, 12 auto companies reported 367 such crashes to it. Among them, Tesla accounted for 273 cases. Of the 98 serious collisions, 11 resulted in serious injuries or fatalities. Another 294 incidents did not provide information on injuries.</p><p>Following Tesla is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HMC\">Honda Motor</a>Company, with 90 crashes, while Subaru disclosed 10 crashes. Includes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota Motors</a>All the other manufacturers mentioned five or fewer collisions.</p><p>The aforementioned data was collected in accordance with a June 2021 order requiring automakers and tech companies to report the incidents. The move comes as some safety advocates are calling on regulators and lawmakers to do more to enact stricter rules for so-called autonomous vehicles. Nowadays, autonomous driving technology is becoming more and more popular with users.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-06-16/doc-imizirau8719990.shtml\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dffa0dd749a02dd346347e78d9cec58f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-06-16/doc-imizirau8719990.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2243940692","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、美联储加息75个基点 为28年来最大幅度加息 “坚决承诺”将通胀恢复至2%2、莫斯科再次祭出“天然气武器” 对欧洲最大买主供气量锐减 3、美国零售销售五个月来首次下滑 因汽车销售大跌4、欧洲央行在意大利国债崩盘后加快危机应对工具的准备工作5、美国住宅建筑商信心指数下滑至两年低点 需求更趋疲软6、美国交通安全局公布自动辅助驾驶系统事故报告：特斯拉有273起撞车事故美联储加息75个基点 为28年来最大幅度加息 “坚决承诺”将通胀恢复至2% 【专题报道】为应对通胀飙升和金融市场动荡，美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）当地时间周三公布最新利率决议，将基准利率上调75个基点至1.50%-1.75%区间，为1994年来最大幅度的加息。美联储官员们此次以10-1的投票比例通过此次的利率决定。投反对票者是堪萨斯城联储主席乔治，她更偏向小幅加息0.5个百分点。美联储声明表示，高度关注通胀风险，“坚决承诺”将通胀率恢复到2%，并重申认为持续加息是适当的。声称，在评估适当的政策立场时，将继续监测收到的信息对经济前景的影响。如果出现可能阻碍委员会实现目标的风险，委员会准备酌情调整货币政策立场。关于美国经济现状，美联储在声明中表示，整体经济活动在第一季小幅下降后似乎已有所回升。最近几个月就业增长强劲，且失业率保持在低位。通胀仍然高企，反映出与疫情有关的供需失衡、能源价格上涨和更广泛的物价压力。莫斯科再次祭出“天然气武器” 对欧洲最大买主供气量锐减俄罗斯继续将能源作为武器，进一步下调通过最大输欧管道出口的天然气量。俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司正在将通过北溪输往德国的管道天然气减少60%，规模比周二宣布的更大。此举导致输往意大利的供气量进一步减少15%，对本已紧张的欧洲能源市场构成更大压力，天然气价格飙升超过25%。德国经济部长Robert Habeck称，俄罗斯试图动摇市场并抬高价格，但供应的安全性目前仍然得到了保障。这些限制措施再次点燃了与莫斯科的紧张关系，此前在几个欧洲国家找到以卢布支付天然气费用的方式后，俄罗斯政府态度曾经有所缓和。巴黎政治学院教授，前能源分析师Thierry Bros说，“该行业必须为俄罗斯完全停止天然气供应做准备，那些之前通过妥协方式继续获得俄罗斯天然气供应的企业应该明白，克里姆林宫随时有可能变脸”。美国零售销售五个月来首次下滑 因汽车销售大跌美国5月份零售销售五个月来首次下滑，因汽车和其他大件商品的销售额大跌，表明商品需求放缓。商务部周三发布的数据显示，5月份零售销售总额环比下降0.3%；4月份下修为增长0.7%。5月份不含汽车的零售销售增长0.5%。这些数字没有经过通胀调整。接受媒体调查的经济学家预期中值是5月份零售销售环比增长0.1%，不含汽车的零售销售环比增长0.7%。5月份汽车销售下降3.5%，佐证了Wards Automotive Group有关当月销量创8月份以来最大降幅的数据。与此同时，加油站的销售增长了4%，可能反映了更高的油价。剔除这些项目的零售销售在5月份增长0.1%，为五个月来最小增幅。这些数据表明，美国人对商品的需求正在走软，可能反映了几十年来最高通胀的影响，或是因为美国人更偏爱在旅游和娱乐等服务上花钱。随着经济中的价格压力变得更加根深蒂固，支出可能会因为价格上涨和/或利率上升而退潮。欧洲央行在意大利国债崩盘后加快危机应对工具的准备工作随着十多年来首次加息的前景带来市场压力，欧洲央行指示相关委员会创建一个新工具，解决欧元区债券收益率的无端飙升问题。在意大利国债收益率飙升至欧洲主权债务危机以来最高水平之后，欧洲央行管理委员会周三召开紧急会议，表示将灵活运用其抗疫紧急购债计划投资组合的赎回再投资，以保持货币政策传导机制的运转。欧洲央行在一份声明中说：“疫情在欧元区经济中留下了持久的脆弱性，确实导致了我们的货币政策正常化在不同国家和地区的不均衡传导。”欧洲央行周三临时召开会议，出乎市场预料。自上周发布加息计划以来，市场状况显著恶化。美国住宅建筑商信心指数下滑至两年低点 需求更趋疲软由于通胀上升和抵押贷款利率走高对住房需求构成压力，美国住宅建筑商信心指数6月跌至两年低点。根据全国住宅建筑商协会（NAHB）/富国银行周三公布的数据，该指数6月下降2个点至67，为2020年6月以来的最低水平。这也是该指数六连降。住宅建筑商正面临房地产市场的普遍放缓。抵押贷款利率的迅速攀升侵蚀了房屋的可负担性，并导致近几个月来住宅销售放缓。与此同时，材料的交付周期仍然很长，成本高企，劳动力仍然很难找到。“房地产市场既面临需求侧的挑战，也面临供给侧的挑战，”NAHB首席经济学家Robert Dietz在一份声明中表示。“住宅建筑材料成本同比上涨19%，各种建筑投入成本上升。”“在市场的需求侧，2022年上半年抵押贷款利率的上升已将很多潜在的购房者拒之门外，”他说。美国交通安全局公布自动辅助驾驶系统事故报告：特斯拉有273起撞车事故据报道，特斯拉日前向美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）提供了一些新数据，报告了绝大多数涉及自动驾驶辅助系统（ADAS）的撞车事故。NHTSA称，在2021年7月至今年5月15日期间，12家汽车公司向其报告了367起此类撞车事故。其中，特斯拉占了273起。在98起严重碰撞事故中，有11起导致重伤或死亡。另有294起事件并未提供人员受伤方面的信息。排在特斯拉之后的是本田汽车公司，发生了90起撞车事故，而斯巴鲁公司（Subaru ）披露了10起撞车事故。包括通用汽车、福特汽车和丰田汽车在内的其余所有厂商，都提到了五起或以下的碰撞事件。上述数据是根据2021年6月的一项命令收集的，该命令要求汽车制造商和科技公司报告这些事件。此举正值一些安全倡导者呼吁监管机构和立法者采取更多行动，为所谓的自动驾驶汽车制定更严格的规则。如今，自动驾驶技术越来越受到用户的欢迎。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.6,".IXIC":0.6,".SPX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":600,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9056769868,"gmtCreate":1655083026454,"gmtModify":1676535558102,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9056769868","repostId":"2242544137","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9056667787,"gmtCreate":1655004924449,"gmtModify":1676535547301,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9056667787","repostId":"2242559862","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2242559862","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1654994161,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2242559862?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-12 08:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tesla, Google, Amazon, why do technology giants all split their shares?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2242559862","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"近期，美国科技巨头掀起了一阵“拆股热潮”。特斯拉官宣拆股，计划8月初的股东大会讨论通过1股拆3股的提议，为两年来首次。本周二，亚马逊自1999年以来的首次股票拆分计划正式生效，股价也再次成为三位数。据","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Recently, American technology giants have set off a wave of \"stock split craze\".</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The official announcement of the share split is planned to discuss and approve the proposal of splitting one share into three shares at the shareholders' meeting in early August for the first time in two years.</p><p>This Tuesday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>The first stock split plan since 1999 officially took effect, and the stock price was once again in the triple digits.</p><p>According to media reports, in addition to Amazon and Tesla, this year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Parent company Alphabet, cross-border e-commerce Shopify, Nintendo and GameStop are all likely to conduct stock splits.</p><p>Stock splits are not unusual. Over the years, many public companies have done stock splits. Buffett-managed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>· Hathaway split Class B stocks 50 in 2010.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Five split has been carried out since the IPO in 1980. While these companies split at varying percentages, there must be some reason why there are so many multi-billion dollar companies doing stock splits.</p><p><h2>How to dismantle?</h2>Let's first understand how to split the stock. Take Amazon as an example. Shareholders who held Amazon stock on May 27 will receive an additional 19 shares for each share they hold when the stock is split on June 3.<b>This will cost existing shareholders nothing, and the value of their holdings will not change as a result of the split.</b></p><p>So if Amazon's stock price was $2,500 a share before the split, a shareholder with three shares would have 60 shares after the split date, but their total investment would still be around $7,500 (assuming the stock price doesn't plummet or soar).</p><p>The only difference is that the price of a single share of Amazon will drop significantly. In this example, the stock price will drop from $2,500 per share to $125 per share. For many investors, it's just that the numbers displayed on your stock app are slightly different.</p><p><h2>Why dismantle?</h2>Stock split may seem pointless and while displaying different numbers, the company still runs as before, the market cap hasn't changed and the value of the shares held by shareholders remains the same, so why do it?</p><p><b>There are many reasons, most of which come down to investor psychology</b>。 As stock prices rise, buying stocks begins to seem unaffordable. A stock price of $1 means that $2,500 can buy thousands of shares, while a stock price of $2,500 means that only one can be bought.</p><p>This problem is beyond the perception of investors with more modest portfolios. For someone with $10,000 in investment principal, buying one share of Amazon stock at the previous price means investing 25% of the portfolio in one company, which is highly concentrated and does not do diversification.</p><p><b>Secondly, stock splits help improve the liquidity of stocks,</b>Easier to buy or sell. Amazon said in the filing that the move will make it easier for its employees to manage their stake in Amazon. Previously, if they wanted to get $1,000 in cash, they needed to sell the entire stake and then reinvest the rest. After the stock is split, they sell fewer shares and get the $1,000 they need.</p><p><b>There is also a more important point that stock splits tend to be accompanied by rising stock prices.</b>It will be easier for more investors to buy stocks, which may increase demand and thus price.</p><p>Essentially, a stock split won't really change anything, and the fundamentals of the company will remain the same. Still, companies that have conducted stock splits have outperformed the S&P 500 by 16.3% in the 12 months after the spin-off took effect since 1980.</p><p>It's a good example of correlation, but it's not meant to be causal. In fact, a stock split almost certainly won't allow it to outperform the market average. A prerequisite for a sharp rise in the stock price of a company undergoing a stock split is that,<b>The businesses of these companies have been performing well and may have surpassed the S&P 500 before the split.</b></p><p><h2>Why tear it down now?</h2>Why is there a \"stock split craze\" now? Still take Amazon as an example. Amazon's stock split now has an added benefit. U.S. tech stocks have suffered heavy losses so far in 2022, with Amazon shares down nearly 30% so far this year. Apple, Netflix, Meta and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>The stock prices of other companies have suffered similar blows.</p><p>It is clear that this is going to be a tough year for a company that hovered around the $3,250 mark for most of 2021 during a downturn in stock prices, and a stock split can change that perception.</p><p>For example, when the stock price is $125 after the split, this background and price correlation disappears.<b>Again, it's about psychological perception.</b></p><p><h2>What does it mean for investors?</h2>What does a stock split mean for the average investor?<b>The most direct point is that you can afford it,</b>No more co-buying stocks with others.</p><p><b>But it also means that it is unlikely to have the same shareholder rights, such as the right to vote on company decisions</b>。 This may not be a big deal for most investors, but it can be important if you want to have a say in new initiatives such as companies adopting sustainable business practices.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla, Google, Amazon, why do technology giants all split their shares?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla, Google, Amazon, why do technology giants all split their shares?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-12 08:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Recently, American technology giants have set off a wave of \"stock split craze\".</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The official announcement of the share split is planned to discuss and approve the proposal of splitting one share into three shares at the shareholders' meeting in early August for the first time in two years.</p><p>This Tuesday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>The first stock split plan since 1999 officially took effect, and the stock price was once again in the triple digits.</p><p>According to media reports, in addition to Amazon and Tesla, this year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Parent company Alphabet, cross-border e-commerce Shopify, Nintendo and GameStop are all likely to conduct stock splits.</p><p>Stock splits are not unusual. Over the years, many public companies have done stock splits. Buffett-managed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>· Hathaway split Class B stocks 50 in 2010.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Five split has been carried out since the IPO in 1980. While these companies split at varying percentages, there must be some reason why there are so many multi-billion dollar companies doing stock splits.</p><p><h2>How to dismantle?</h2>Let's first understand how to split the stock. Take Amazon as an example. Shareholders who held Amazon stock on May 27 will receive an additional 19 shares for each share they hold when the stock is split on June 3.<b>This will cost existing shareholders nothing, and the value of their holdings will not change as a result of the split.</b></p><p>So if Amazon's stock price was $2,500 a share before the split, a shareholder with three shares would have 60 shares after the split date, but their total investment would still be around $7,500 (assuming the stock price doesn't plummet or soar).</p><p>The only difference is that the price of a single share of Amazon will drop significantly. In this example, the stock price will drop from $2,500 per share to $125 per share. For many investors, it's just that the numbers displayed on your stock app are slightly different.</p><p><h2>Why dismantle?</h2>Stock split may seem pointless and while displaying different numbers, the company still runs as before, the market cap hasn't changed and the value of the shares held by shareholders remains the same, so why do it?</p><p><b>There are many reasons, most of which come down to investor psychology</b>。 As stock prices rise, buying stocks begins to seem unaffordable. A stock price of $1 means that $2,500 can buy thousands of shares, while a stock price of $2,500 means that only one can be bought.</p><p>This problem is beyond the perception of investors with more modest portfolios. For someone with $10,000 in investment principal, buying one share of Amazon stock at the previous price means investing 25% of the portfolio in one company, which is highly concentrated and does not do diversification.</p><p><b>Secondly, stock splits help improve the liquidity of stocks,</b>Easier to buy or sell. Amazon said in the filing that the move will make it easier for its employees to manage their stake in Amazon. Previously, if they wanted to get $1,000 in cash, they needed to sell the entire stake and then reinvest the rest. After the stock is split, they sell fewer shares and get the $1,000 they need.</p><p><b>There is also a more important point that stock splits tend to be accompanied by rising stock prices.</b>It will be easier for more investors to buy stocks, which may increase demand and thus price.</p><p>Essentially, a stock split won't really change anything, and the fundamentals of the company will remain the same. Still, companies that have conducted stock splits have outperformed the S&P 500 by 16.3% in the 12 months after the spin-off took effect since 1980.</p><p>It's a good example of correlation, but it's not meant to be causal. In fact, a stock split almost certainly won't allow it to outperform the market average. A prerequisite for a sharp rise in the stock price of a company undergoing a stock split is that,<b>The businesses of these companies have been performing well and may have surpassed the S&P 500 before the split.</b></p><p><h2>Why tear it down now?</h2>Why is there a \"stock split craze\" now? Still take Amazon as an example. Amazon's stock split now has an added benefit. U.S. tech stocks have suffered heavy losses so far in 2022, with Amazon shares down nearly 30% so far this year. Apple, Netflix, Meta and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>The stock prices of other companies have suffered similar blows.</p><p>It is clear that this is going to be a tough year for a company that hovered around the $3,250 mark for most of 2021 during a downturn in stock prices, and a stock split can change that perception.</p><p>For example, when the stock price is $125 after the split, this background and price correlation disappears.<b>Again, it's about psychological perception.</b></p><p><h2>What does it mean for investors?</h2>What does a stock split mean for the average investor?<b>The most direct point is that you can afford it,</b>No more co-buying stocks with others.</p><p><b>But it also means that it is unlikely to have the same shareholder rights, such as the right to vote on company decisions</b>。 This may not be a big deal for most investors, but it can be important if you want to have a say in new initiatives such as companies adopting sustainable business practices.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3661713\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d6a4572b675796b315e560ea7fe3401","relate_stocks":{"BK4576":"AR","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4514":"搜索引擎","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","GOOG":"谷歌","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4507":"流媒体概念","GOOGL":"谷歌A","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4524":"宅经济概念","AMZN":"亚马逊","BK4538":"云计算","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3661713","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2242559862","content_text":"近期，美国科技巨头掀起了一阵“拆股热潮”。特斯拉官宣拆股，计划8月初的股东大会讨论通过1股拆3股的提议，为两年来首次。本周二，亚马逊自1999年以来的首次股票拆分计划正式生效，股价也再次成为三位数。据媒体报道，除了亚马逊、特斯拉之外，今年谷歌母公司Alphabet、跨境电商Shopify、任天堂和GameStop均有可能进行股票拆分。拆股并不罕见，多年来，许多上市公司都进行了股票拆分，巴菲特管理的伯克希尔·哈撒韦曾于2010年把B级股票1拆50，苹果自1980年首次公开募股以来已经进行了五次拆股。虽然这些公司拆分比例各不相同，但有如此多的数十亿美元的公司进行拆股，其中肯定有一些原因。如何拆？先来了解一下如何进行股票拆分，以亚马逊为例，在5月27日持有亚马逊股票的股东，在6月3日股票拆分时，每持有一股，将额外获得19股。这不会让现有股东付出任何代价，他们所持股票的价值也不会因拆分而改变。因此，如果亚马逊拆分前股价在2500美元一股，持有三股股份的股东在拆分日期后会拥有60股，但他们的总投资仍将在7500美元左右（假设股价不会暴跌或飙升）。唯一的区别是，亚马逊一股股票的价格将大幅下跌。在本例中，股价将从每股2500美元降至每股125美元。对许多投资者来说，只是你的炒股app上显示的数字稍有不同。为什么拆？股票分拆看起来似乎毫无意义，虽然显示不同的数字，但公司仍然像以前一样运行，市值没有变化，股东所持股票的价值保持不变，那为什么要这样做呢？原因有很多，其中大部分归结于投资者心理。随着股价上涨，买入股票开始显得难以承受。1美元的股价意味着2500美元可以购买数千股股票，而2500美元的股价意味着只可以买1只。这个问题超出了投资组合较为温和的投资者认知范围，对于拥有1万美元投资本金的人来说，以之前的价格购买一股亚马逊股票意味着将投资组合的25%投资于一家公司，集中度较高，并不能做到多元化投资。其次，拆股有助于提高股票的流动性，更容易买入或卖出。亚马逊在文件中表示，此举将使其员工更容易管理其持有的亚马逊股份。此前，如果他们想获得1000美元的现金，他们需要抛售全部股份，然后再将其余部分进行再投资。股票分拆后，他们卖出较少股票，就可以得到所需的1000美元。还有更重要的一点，拆股往往会伴随着股价上涨。更多的投资者将更容易买入股票，这可能会增加需求，从而提高价格。本质上来看，拆股不会真正改变任何事情，公司的基本面将保持不变。尽管如此，自1980年以来，进行拆股的公司在分拆生效后的12个月内的表现超出标普500指数16.3%。这是一个很好的相关性例子，但不意味着有因果关系。事实上，拆股几乎肯定不能使其表现超出市场平均水平。进行拆股的公司股价大幅上涨的一个先决因素是，这些公司的业务一直表现良好，在拆分之前可能已经超过了标普500。为什么现在拆？为什么是现在掀起一股“拆股热潮”？还是以亚马逊为例，亚马逊现在拆股还有一个额外的好处。到目前为止，2022年美国科技股损失惨重，今年迄今亚马逊股价下跌了近30%。苹果、Netflix、Meta和微软等公司的股价都遭受了类似的打击。很明显，对于一家在股价低迷期，2021大部分时间徘徊在3250美元大关的公司来说，今年将是艰难的一年，股票拆分可以改变这种看法。比如，拆分后股价为125美元，这种背景和价格关联就消失了。同样的，这还是关于心理方面的感知。对投资者意味着什么？拆股对普通投资者意味着什么？最直接的一点是，可以买得起了，再也不用和别人合买股票。但这也意味着不太可能拥有相同的股东权利，比如对公司决策的投票权。对于大多数投资者来说，这可能不是什么大不了的事情，但如果想在公司采取可持续商业实践等新举措中拥有发言权，这可能很重要。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOG":1,"TSLA":1,"GOOGL":1,"AMZN":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":680,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9056104036,"gmtCreate":1654960482825,"gmtModify":1676535539811,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9056104036","repostId":"2242581180","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2242581180","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1654912872,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2242581180?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-11 10:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is Powell responsible for inflation? Biden really \"pushed the pot\" to the Fed","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2242581180","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：美国通胀见顶希望破灭，拜登政府迅速表态，给了美联储足够的空间。鲍威尔抗击通胀的压力越来越大了。美国5月CPI再度爆表，一举浇灭了通胀见顶的希望。数据公布后，拜登政府迅速表态，话里话外都将重担甩给","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: Hopes of peaking inflation in the United States were dashed, and the Biden administration quickly expressed its position, giving the Fed enough room. The pressure on Powell to fight inflation is increasing. The U.S. CPI exploded again in May, dousing hopes of peaking inflation in one fell swoop. After the data was released, the Biden administration quickly expressed its position, putting the burden on the Federal Reserve both inside and outside the words.</p><p>According to the data released on Friday, the CPI of the United States accelerated by 8.6% year-on-year in May. After the growth dropped slightly in April, it failed to continue to slow down. Instead, it set a new refresh for the highest growth rate in 40 years set in March, which greatly surprised the market.</p><p>After the data was released, U.S. Treasury Bond yields rose across the board, with the 10-year U.S. bond yield rising above 3.10% for the first time in a month. The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed down for three consecutive days. The Nasdaq closed down 3.52%, the S&P closed down 2.91%, and the Dow closed down 2.73%, all of which were the largest closing declines since May 18 for two consecutive days.</p><p>In the face of high inflation, U.S. consumer confidence collapsed. Data released Friday showed the University of Michigan consumer confidence index fell to its lowest level since 1980.</p><p>Record gasoline prices, coupled with stubbornly high food and housing costs, are increasing the cost of living pressure on Americans,<b>This forces the Federal Reserve to face the pressure of faster rate hike, and also brings more political problems to the White House and Democrats. After all, U.S. inflation has only begun to \"take off\" since Biden took office.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84c06e35247a75a5fd811a0e6aa93756\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>(Image credit: Zerohedge)</p><p><h2>Biden Administration: Gave the Fed plenty of room</h2>U.S. President Joe Biden said in a statement after Friday's data, \"Today's report highlights why I have made fighting inflation my top economic priority... while seeing key'core 'inflation slowing is good, but it's not falling as quickly and dramatically as we have to see.\"</p><p>Biden said the U.S. needs to \"do more quickly to lower prices\" and called on Congress to pass legislation to reduce energy, prescription drug and shipping costs.</p><p>In the face of accumulating livelihood problems, Biden's approval rating has fallen to a new low, and the White House is trying to spread the pressure by constantly emphasizing the role of the Federal Reserve.</p><p>As early as the end of last month, Biden \"blamed\" the Fed for fighting inflation. The day before meeting with Powell, Biden said that the Fed \"shoulders the main responsibility for controlling inflation\" and said that he would not try to influence the Fed's decision-making:</p><p>\"Predecessors have belittled the Fed, and some presidents in the past have tried to inappropriately influence the Fed's decision-making during times of high inflation, and I won't do that.\" The rhetoric repeated after the data was released on Friday.</p><p>National Economic Council Director Brian Deese told the media Friday that today's data underscores what the president has been saying all along-that fighting inflation must be a top economic priority,<b>\"The Fed has the tools it needs, and we're giving it the space it needs.\"</b></p><p>White House economic adviser Cecilia Rouse also mentioned in a media interview that,<b>Biden gave the Fed \"room to do what they need to do.\"</b></p><p>The pressure on the Federal Reserve to control inflation is mounting.</p><p>On Friday, rate hike expectations soared to the highest level in the cycle, with traders expecting the Fed to make a 50 basis point rate hike in June, July and September each, while expectations for subsequent rate cuts also soared. Wall Street began to discuss whether the Federal Reserve would rate hike 75 basis points. Barclays became the first major Wall Street bank to expect a rate hike of 75 basis points. It even expects a rate hike of this magnitude next week. The swap market expects a rate hike of 75 basis points in July. The probability is 50%.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Powell responsible for inflation? Biden really \"pushed the pot\" to the Fed</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Powell responsible for inflation? Biden really \"pushed the pot\" to the Fed\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-11 10:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: Hopes of peaking inflation in the United States were dashed, and the Biden administration quickly expressed its position, giving the Fed enough room. The pressure on Powell to fight inflation is increasing. The U.S. CPI exploded again in May, dousing hopes of peaking inflation in one fell swoop. After the data was released, the Biden administration quickly expressed its position, putting the burden on the Federal Reserve both inside and outside the words.</p><p>According to the data released on Friday, the CPI of the United States accelerated by 8.6% year-on-year in May. After the growth dropped slightly in April, it failed to continue to slow down. Instead, it set a new refresh for the highest growth rate in 40 years set in March, which greatly surprised the market.</p><p>After the data was released, U.S. Treasury Bond yields rose across the board, with the 10-year U.S. bond yield rising above 3.10% for the first time in a month. The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed down for three consecutive days. The Nasdaq closed down 3.52%, the S&P closed down 2.91%, and the Dow closed down 2.73%, all of which were the largest closing declines since May 18 for two consecutive days.</p><p>In the face of high inflation, U.S. consumer confidence collapsed. Data released Friday showed the University of Michigan consumer confidence index fell to its lowest level since 1980.</p><p>Record gasoline prices, coupled with stubbornly high food and housing costs, are increasing the cost of living pressure on Americans,<b>This forces the Federal Reserve to face the pressure of faster rate hike, and also brings more political problems to the White House and Democrats. After all, U.S. inflation has only begun to \"take off\" since Biden took office.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84c06e35247a75a5fd811a0e6aa93756\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>(Image credit: Zerohedge)</p><p><h2>Biden Administration: Gave the Fed plenty of room</h2>U.S. President Joe Biden said in a statement after Friday's data, \"Today's report highlights why I have made fighting inflation my top economic priority... while seeing key'core 'inflation slowing is good, but it's not falling as quickly and dramatically as we have to see.\"</p><p>Biden said the U.S. needs to \"do more quickly to lower prices\" and called on Congress to pass legislation to reduce energy, prescription drug and shipping costs.</p><p>In the face of accumulating livelihood problems, Biden's approval rating has fallen to a new low, and the White House is trying to spread the pressure by constantly emphasizing the role of the Federal Reserve.</p><p>As early as the end of last month, Biden \"blamed\" the Fed for fighting inflation. The day before meeting with Powell, Biden said that the Fed \"shoulders the main responsibility for controlling inflation\" and said that he would not try to influence the Fed's decision-making:</p><p>\"Predecessors have belittled the Fed, and some presidents in the past have tried to inappropriately influence the Fed's decision-making during times of high inflation, and I won't do that.\" The rhetoric repeated after the data was released on Friday.</p><p>National Economic Council Director Brian Deese told the media Friday that today's data underscores what the president has been saying all along-that fighting inflation must be a top economic priority,<b>\"The Fed has the tools it needs, and we're giving it the space it needs.\"</b></p><p>White House economic adviser Cecilia Rouse also mentioned in a media interview that,<b>Biden gave the Fed \"room to do what they need to do.\"</b></p><p>The pressure on the Federal Reserve to control inflation is mounting.</p><p>On Friday, rate hike expectations soared to the highest level in the cycle, with traders expecting the Fed to make a 50 basis point rate hike in June, July and September each, while expectations for subsequent rate cuts also soared. Wall Street began to discuss whether the Federal Reserve would rate hike 75 basis points. Barclays became the first major Wall Street bank to expect a rate hike of 75 basis points. It even expects a rate hike of this magnitude next week. The swap market expects a rate hike of 75 basis points in July. The probability is 50%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3661699\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4504":"桥水持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3661699","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2242581180","content_text":"摘要：美国通胀见顶希望破灭，拜登政府迅速表态，给了美联储足够的空间。鲍威尔抗击通胀的压力越来越大了。美国5月CPI再度爆表，一举浇灭了通胀见顶的希望。数据公布后，拜登政府迅速表态，话里话外都将重担甩给了美联储。周五公布的数据显示，美国5月CPI同比加速增长8.6%，在4月增长略有回落后未能继续增长放缓，反而刷新3月所创的四十年来最高增速，令市场大感意外。数据公布后，美国国债收益率全线拉升，10年期美债收益率一个月来首次升破3.10%。美股三大指数连续三日集体收跌，纳指收跌3.52%，标普收跌2.91%，道指收跌2.73%，均为连续两日创下5月18日以来最大收盘跌幅。在高企的通胀面前，美国消费者信心崩了。周五公布的数据显示，密歇根大学消费者信心指数跌至1980年以来的最低水平。创纪录的汽油价格，再加上居高不下的食品和住房成本，正在加大美国人的生活成本压力，这使得美联储不得不面对更快加息的压力，也给白宫和民主党人带来更多的政治问题，毕竟拜登上任以来，美国通胀才开始“起飞”。（图片来源：Zerohedge）拜登政府：给了美联储足够的空间周五数据公布后，美国总统拜登在一份声明中表示，“今天的报告强调了我为什么把抗击通货膨胀作为我的首要经济任务......虽然看到关键的‘核心’通胀放缓是好事，但它的下降速度没有我们必须看到的那么快、那么剧烈。”拜登表示，美国需要“迅速采取更多措施来降低价格”，并呼吁国会通过降低能源、处方药和运输成本的立法。在不断累积的民生问题面前，拜登的支持率已经跌至新低，白宫正试图通过不断强调美联储的作用来分散压力。早在上个月底，拜登就将抗击通胀的责任“甩锅”给了美联储，在和鲍威尔会面前一天，拜登表示美联储“肩负控制通胀的主要责任”，同时表示，他不会试图影响联储的决策：“前任曾贬低过美联储，过去一些总统试图在通胀高企的时期不恰当地影响美联储的决策，我不会那么做。”周五数据公布后，这套说辞再现。美国国家经济委员会主任布莱恩·迪斯(Brian Deese)周五在媒体上表示，今天的数据突显出总统一直以来的表态——抗击通胀必须成为首要经济任务，“美联储拥有它需要的工具，我们正在给它所需的空间。”美国白宫经济顾问塞西莉亚·劳斯(CeciliaRouse)也在媒体采访中提到，拜登给了美联储“做他们需要做的事情的空间”。美联储控制通胀的压力越来越大。周五，加息预期飙升至本轮周期的最高水平，交易员预计美联储在6月、7月和9月各加息50个基点，同时随后的降息预期也在飙升。华尔街开始讨论美联储会不会加息75个基点，巴克莱成为首家预计加息75个基点的华尔街大行，甚至预计下周就会这一幅度加息，掉期市场预计7月加息75个基点的概率达50%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".IXIC":1,"QQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"QID":0.6,"SH":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,".DJI":1,"DOG":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SPY":1,"ESmain":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DJX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}