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06:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Things to Watch When the Fed Makes Its Interest-Rate Decision","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2290225643","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Press conference 'should be a doozy'Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell participates in a questio","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Press conference &#39;should be a doozy&#39;</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aad22a8da050c6b90f85a45e5aaeff1f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell participates in a question-and-answer session after speaking at the Brookings Institute on Nov. 30.</span></p><p>During the Federal Reserve&#39;s last battle with high inflation in the 1970s and 1980s, Fed officials didn&#39;t talk much at all publicly. When pressed for information on Capitol Hill about the outlook for the economy and interest rates, former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker would disappear behind a thickening cloud of cigar smoke. (Smoking was allowed at hearings in those days.)</p><p>Forty years later, there will be no ashtrays in sight when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell holds a post-meeting news conference. And investors and economists are going to get a slew of information, not just smoke, from the central bank.</p><p>&#34;After the Fed meeting, it&#39;s going to be like information overload,&#34; said Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, in an interview.</p><p>In general, economists expect a hawkish Powell Wednesday.</p><p>Financial conditions have eased since the Fed&#39;s November meeting, which doesn&#39;t help dampen inflation.</p><p>The yield on the 10-year Treasury note  has fallen sharply to 3.49% from 4.21% just after the Fed&#39;s previous policy meeting. The S&amp;P 500 stock-market index  also has gained ground.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dbe91cc028bcb156663a9fa874ebf40\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"669\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>&#34;This has been a struggle for this FOMC the whole year,&#34; said Jan Groen, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities, in an interview.</p><p>&#34;Powell had to come out at Jackson Hole with a big speech and we had this super hawkish press conference in November. And then again, they lost control of it. So I think, again, he has to do something similar,&#34; Groen said.</p><p>Here&#39;s a look at what experts will be watching for when the Fed concludes the two-day meeting on Wednesday.</p><h2>Slowing down the pace of rate hikes</h2><p>The Fed is widely expected to slow to to raise its benchmark rate by a half percentage point, a slower pace than the four 0.75 point rate hikes seen since June. This will bring the Fed&#39;s benchmark rate to a range of 4.25%-4.5%.</p><p>While some economists argued that the strong November jobs report put a 0.75 point hike back on the table, most don&#39;t agree. &#34;For all intents and purposes, that ship sailed at the November FOMC meeting ,&#34; said Tim Duy, economist at SGH Macro Advisors. &#34;A June-like adjustment isn&#39;t happening here,&#34; he added, referring to the Fed&#39;s surprising last-minute decision to engineer the first 0.75 percentage point hike.</p><h2>Signaling more hikes to come</h2><p>To keep from sounding dovish with the slower rate hikes, Powell and the Fed will highlight again that rates need to go higher.</p><p>Economists said the Fed will retain a key phrase from the November statement that the central bankers expected &#34;ongoing increases&#34; in the benchmark interest rate.</p><p>Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>, argued the Fed might change the wording to &#34;some further increase&#34; in the benchmark rate will be appropriate in order to give the Fed flexibility.</p><p>Avery Shenfeld, chief economist of CIBC World Markets, thinks that it is premature for the Fed to soften the wording.</p><p>&#34;When you still have another 50 basis points to go that you&#39;re pretty sure you&#39;re going to do and you might have to do more than that, you&#39;re not going to change the wording,&#34; said Shenfeld, in an interview.</p><p>Shenfeld thinks the Fed can stop hiking at 5% and hold until 2024.</p><h2>How high will rates go and how long will they stay there?</h2><p>In the last &#34;dot plot&#34; in September, the Fed forecast that the top end of its benchmark rate would have a top out at 4.75%.  Groen of TD Securities says the Fed&#39;s new dot plot will push up the terminal rate up, but only slightly to 5%.</p><p>In order to move the median higher, there has to be a really big move in the distribution of the dots, Groen said.</p><p>The key for markets is how many Fed officials pencil in their dot above 5%, Groen said.  In September, no Fed officials projected the terminal rate above 5%.</p><p>Some economists think the Fed might push up the high end of the terminal range to 5.25%.</p><p>In order to try to underline that it intends to hold rates at a high level, the Fed will project no rate cuts in 2023, economists said.</p><h2>More pain on the table</h2><p>With the Fed projecting higher interest rates, economists expect the Fed forecast to reflect more pain for the economy.</p><p>&#34;From 2023-2025, we expect that GDP growth will be revised lower, the unemployment rate will be revised higher and inflation will also be revised lower,&#34; said economists at Bank of America, in a note to clients.</p><p>In September, the Fed projected the unemployment rate would rise to 4.4% in 2023 before slowly coming down. The unemployment rate was 3.7% in November.</p><p>The market needs to see a forecast of softer inflation but not a deep recession, Shenfeld said.</p><p>The market is thinking that inflation is going to come down quickly and that growth will also thinking that the economy will be so weak the Fed will have to come to the rescue, Shenfeld said.</p><h2>Press conference</h2><p>With so many uncertainties facing the Fed, &#34;the press conference is likely to be a doozy,&#34; said Dan North, senior economist at trade credit insurer Allianz Trade North America.</p><p>&#34;The statement is carefully prepared, carefully worded. In the press conference, it is where Powell might reveal more about what the thinking is and therefore might  reveal more about the future path of tightening might be and when there might eventually be a stop and a pivot.&#34;</p><p>&#34;We&#39;re at the precipice now,&#34; with the Fed perhaps not far from stopping, he added.</p><p>One way to measure Powell&#39;s hawkishness is how he talks about the risk of overtightening.</p><p>At his press conference in November,  Powell said that if the Fed were to overtighten, &#34;we could use our tools to support the economy.&#34;</p><p>Then markets took a dovish signal from Powell&#39;s comment a week ago that the central bank didn&#39;t want to overtighten.</p><p>&#34;We should expect a more austere tone in December,&#34; said Krishna Guha, vice chairman of Evercore ISI, in a note to clients.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Things to Watch When the Fed Makes Its Interest-Rate Decision</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Things to Watch When the Fed Makes Its Interest-Rate Decision\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-10 06:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-things-to-watch-when-the-fed-makes-its-interest-rate-decision-11670573115?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Press conference 'should be a doozy'Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell participates in a question-and-answer session after speaking at the Brookings Institute on Nov. 30.During the Federal Reserve...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-things-to-watch-when-the-fed-makes-its-interest-rate-decision-11670573115?mod=home-page\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-things-to-watch-when-the-fed-makes-its-interest-rate-decision-11670573115?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2290225643","content_text":"Press conference 'should be a doozy'Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell participates in a question-and-answer session after speaking at the Brookings Institute on Nov. 30.During the Federal Reserve's last battle with high inflation in the 1970s and 1980s, Fed officials didn't talk much at all publicly. When pressed for information on Capitol Hill about the outlook for the economy and interest rates, former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker would disappear behind a thickening cloud of cigar smoke. (Smoking was allowed at hearings in those days.)Forty years later, there will be no ashtrays in sight when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell holds a post-meeting news conference. And investors and economists are going to get a slew of information, not just smoke, from the central bank.\"After the Fed meeting, it's going to be like information overload,\" said Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, in an interview.In general, economists expect a hawkish Powell Wednesday.Financial conditions have eased since the Fed's November meeting, which doesn't help dampen inflation.The yield on the 10-year Treasury note  has fallen sharply to 3.49% from 4.21% just after the Fed's previous policy meeting. The S&P 500 stock-market index  also has gained ground.\"This has been a struggle for this FOMC the whole year,\" said Jan Groen, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities, in an interview.\"Powell had to come out at Jackson Hole with a big speech and we had this super hawkish press conference in November. And then again, they lost control of it. So I think, again, he has to do something similar,\" Groen said.Here's a look at what experts will be watching for when the Fed concludes the two-day meeting on Wednesday.Slowing down the pace of rate hikesThe Fed is widely expected to slow to to raise its benchmark rate by a half percentage point, a slower pace than the four 0.75 point rate hikes seen since June. This will bring the Fed's benchmark rate to a range of 4.25%-4.5%.While some economists argued that the strong November jobs report put a 0.75 point hike back on the table, most don't agree. \"For all intents and purposes, that ship sailed at the November FOMC meeting ,\" said Tim Duy, economist at SGH Macro Advisors. \"A June-like adjustment isn't happening here,\" he added, referring to the Fed's surprising last-minute decision to engineer the first 0.75 percentage point hike.Signaling more hikes to comeTo keep from sounding dovish with the slower rate hikes, Powell and the Fed will highlight again that rates need to go higher.Economists said the Fed will retain a key phrase from the November statement that the central bankers expected \"ongoing increases\" in the benchmark interest rate.Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley, argued the Fed might change the wording to \"some further increase\" in the benchmark rate will be appropriate in order to give the Fed flexibility.Avery Shenfeld, chief economist of CIBC World Markets, thinks that it is premature for the Fed to soften the wording.\"When you still have another 50 basis points to go that you're pretty sure you're going to do and you might have to do more than that, you're not going to change the wording,\" said Shenfeld, in an interview.Shenfeld thinks the Fed can stop hiking at 5% and hold until 2024.How high will rates go and how long will they stay there?In the last \"dot plot\" in September, the Fed forecast that the top end of its benchmark rate would have a top out at 4.75%.  Groen of TD Securities says the Fed's new dot plot will push up the terminal rate up, but only slightly to 5%.In order to move the median higher, there has to be a really big move in the distribution of the dots, Groen said.The key for markets is how many Fed officials pencil in their dot above 5%, Groen said.  In September, no Fed officials projected the terminal rate above 5%.Some economists think the Fed might push up the high end of the terminal range to 5.25%.In order to try to underline that it intends to hold rates at a high level, the Fed will project no rate cuts in 2023, economists said.More pain on the tableWith the Fed projecting higher interest rates, economists expect the Fed forecast to reflect more pain for the economy.\"From 2023-2025, we expect that GDP growth will be revised lower, the unemployment rate will be revised higher and inflation will also be revised lower,\" said economists at Bank of America, in a note to clients.In September, the Fed projected the unemployment rate would rise to 4.4% in 2023 before slowly coming down. The unemployment rate was 3.7% in November.The market needs to see a forecast of softer inflation but not a deep recession, Shenfeld said.The market is thinking that inflation is going to come down quickly and that growth will also thinking that the economy will be so weak the Fed will have to come to the rescue, Shenfeld said.Press conferenceWith so many uncertainties facing the Fed, \"the press conference is likely to be a doozy,\" said Dan North, senior economist at trade credit insurer Allianz Trade North America.\"The statement is carefully prepared, carefully worded. In the press conference, it is where Powell might reveal more about what the thinking is and therefore might  reveal more about the future path of tightening might be and when there might eventually be a stop and a pivot.\"\"We're at the precipice now,\" with the Fed perhaps not far from stopping, he added.One way to measure Powell's hawkishness is how he talks about the risk of overtightening.At his press conference in November,  Powell said that if the Fed were to overtighten, \"we could use our tools to support the economy.\"Then markets took a dovish signal from Powell's comment a week ago that the central bank didn't want to overtighten.\"We should expect a more austere tone in December,\" said Krishna Guha, vice chairman of Evercore ISI, in a note to clients.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914920134,"gmtCreate":1665161673828,"gmtModify":1676537566687,"author":{"id":"3577450970953718","authorId":"3577450970953718","name":"Minhoshuting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ab92b2914bd064ccd8620ef1d430ff","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577450970953718","idStr":"3577450970953718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why","listText":"Why","text":"Why","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914920134","repostId":"2273803113","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2273803113","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1665131530,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2273803113?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-07 16:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Why I Bought More At $140","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2273803113","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryI placed a limit buy order for Apple at $140 in September. The order was triggered last Frida","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>I placed a limit buy order for Apple at $140 in September. The order was triggered last Friday thanks to market volatility, and now I own more shares.</li><li>There is no doubt that the business faces many short-term challenges.</li><li>However, as Buffett commented, if you have to closely follow the day-to-day stuff, you should not own it in the first place.</li><li>This wisdom is true for Apple more than anything else in my mind.</li><li>Moreover, the market underestimates (or misunderstands) its SaaS potential and creates a mispricing.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14d264625dbfe4fe0a4446b0ae1cf349\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Seremin</span></p><h2>Investment thesis</h2><p>During the last week of September (September 25 to be exact), I sent an alert to our marketplace members. The alert informed them that I placed a limit buy order for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) at $140 and mythought process (the stock price then was about $150.5). A price of $140 corresponds to about 22x of its FW PE. To me, any valuation near 20x is very attractive for a stock with ROCE (return on capital employed) near 100% like AAPL. At about 100% ROCE, a 5% investment rate would provide 5% organic real growth rates (i.e., before inflation adjustments). And a 22x PE would provide about 5% owners earnings yield, leading to a total return close to double digits. For a stock like AAPL, I am always happy to buy/add when the total annual return is close to 10% or above. A 10% return is healthy enough to start with. Once you adjust for the risks (and I consider the risks from AAPL similar to treasury bonds), a 10% annual return is almost 3x of what you can get from bonds in the long term.</p><p>Also, to put things under historical perspective, a valuation around 22x is also below the historical average of 24.7x in recent years by about 10% (11% to be exact), leaving a comfortable margin of safety. And also, bear in mind that the stock was so obviously before 2021 and those levels are outliers in my mind. So, the historical average of 24.75x is already biased.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0abaa433019690a8212d9df8d71726d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha data</span></p><p>All told, thanks to market volatility, the stock price dipped below $140 a few days later on Sept 30. The order is triggered, and now I own more AAPL shares. I of course do not want to pretend that I have any idea that its price would actually dip below $140 or not. However, I do have a good sense of its intrinsic value and the magnitude of market gyrations. And as a long-term and patient investor, I do know that 22x PE is a good deal for a stock like AAPL.</p><h2>Near-term challenges</h2><p>There is no shortage of external challenges in the near term. And these challenges can be substantial, too. They will continue to weigh on performance over the near term. These challenges include new variants of COVID-19, the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, unfavorable currency exchange rates, and high inflation and rising interest rates. In particular, you can see the effects that these headwinds have exerted on its margins. Over the past few quarters, its gross margin shrank by more than 200 basis points from a peak of 43.76% to 41.04%. Net profit margin shrank even more, by more than 450 basis points from a peak of 27.9% to 23.4%. China, its key market, had to lock down several of its key cities in the H1 of the year due to COVID-19, and the ongoing pandemic situation probably would lead to more lockdowns, which have impacted its sales and production and would very likely continue to in the near future.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f2a9e2475e37539082fb89230bb995b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha data</span></p><h2>AAPL and Buffettism</h2><p>However, as Buffett commented, if you have to closely follow the day-to-day stuff of a stock, you should not own it in the first place. He was once asked about his AAPL position during a Yahoo! Finance interview. You can see the full interview here, full of typical Buffett-style wisdom and highly recommended. The following is an excerpt and the highlights are added by me.</p><blockquote><i>Yahoo Finance: how closely do you follow the company? You know, people are concerned they really have not introduced any new products.</i></blockquote><blockquote><i>Buffett:</i> <i><b>Well, if you have to closely follow the company, you should not own it in the first place. If you buy a business, say you buy a farm, do you go up and look every couple of weeks to see how far the corn has grown up?</b></i> <i>Do you worry too much about whether somebody says this year is going to be a year of low corn prices because exports are being affected or something? You know, it does not grow faster if I go and stare at it…</i><i><b>AlthoughI do care over the years that it is well tended to in terms of rotating crops. And I hope yields get better.</b></i></blockquote><p>In my mind, this wisdom is truer for Apple than anything else. A high-yield farm is what exactly it is. As a high-yield farm, investors should have the perspective to overlook its daily (or even yearly) noises and focus on the long term, as detailed next.</p><h2>Business outlook and projected returns</h2><p>I am optimistic about its future. The company has displayed remarkable resilience in the face of the difficult operating backdrop in the past. And I am certain that this time is no different. The inflation or drag from foreign exchange rates may worsen in the near term. But remember, Buffett&#39;s other wisdom is<i>not</i>to pick stocks based on macroeconomic parameters - which are totally unpredictable and out of anyone&#39;s control.</p><p>Altogether, consensus estimates look for share net to come in around $6.46 in 2023. And again, at a price of $140, the PE would be about 22x. Based on the consensus estimates, the growth rate would be about 4.6% CAGR in the next few years, which agrees with my back-of-envelope estimate closely. As aforementioned, at about 100% ROCE, a 5% investment rate would provide 5% organic real growth rates.</p><p>All told, a 22x entry PE, combined with a ~5% growth rate, should provide about 10% total return for a long-term business owner.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d4adcc41419bcccde9ab540b89f003c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"260\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha data</span></p><p>Notably, services-related revenues should continue to advance and represent a strong engine for future growth. In this sense, AAPL is transitioning (or you can argue it has successfully transitioned already) from a hardware business into a subscription-based SaaS business.</p><p>According to this report, it added ~30 million paid subscriptions in 2022 alone. Total revenues from services have been growing steadily and rapidly over the years and have reached $19.8 billion. In Q2 2022. Compared to $17.0 billion raked in from services during Q2 2021, this represented an annual growth rate of 16.5%, far outpacing the growth rates of its total revenue. Broadening the timeframe a bit, the growth in its revenues from services has grown more than 230% since 2017, also far outpacing the growth of its product sales (which increased by about 160%). In its latest earnings report, Tim Cook reported a mind-boggling total of 816 million paid subscriptions across its various services ranging from Apple Music, iCloud, and Apple TV+.</p><p>Going forward, I see such a large user base to further grow given Apple&#39;s popularity and premium status. In my view, the market underestimates (or misunderstands) its SaaS potential. As seen from the chart below, it is trading at a sizeable discount relative to other more &#34;standard&#34; SaaS stocks. To wit, in terms of FY1 PE, it is trading slightly below Microsoft Corporation by about 4%, about 20% below Intuit Inc, and more than 27% below Salesforce Inc.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/267e4208372cf220c56b8cfcab38cd7c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha data</span></p><h2>Risks and final thoughts</h2><p>To recap, there is no doubt that the business faces many short-term challenges. These challenges include the veritable list of the COVID-19 pandemic, the ongoing Russian/Ukraine situation, currency exchange rates, high inflation, and global supply chain disruptions. It also faces its own unique challenges such as margin pressure, cost control, and disruptions in its key China market.</p><p>However, the whole point of owning a stock like AAPL is that you do not have to worry about the quarterly noises. If you do, you defeat the purpose completely and should not own it in the first place. To me, any valuation near 20x is very attractive for a stock with ROCE and financial strength like AAPL. A ~20x PE provides about 5% owner&#39;s earnings yield. And an ROCE near 100% easily leads to 5% growth rates with minimal reinvestments, resulting in a double-digit return potential already.</p><p>Finally, specific to AAPL, the revenues and growth composition are also shifting to service and subscription, further augmenting its stickiness and profitability. The market underestimates (or misunderstands) its SaaS potential and most likely will regret it.</p><p><i>This article is written by Envision Research for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Why I Bought More At $140</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Why I Bought More At $140\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-07 16:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544974-apple-why-i-bought-more-140><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryI placed a limit buy order for Apple at $140 in September. The order was triggered last Friday thanks to market volatility, and now I own more shares.There is no doubt that the business faces ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544974-apple-why-i-bought-more-140\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544974-apple-why-i-bought-more-140","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2273803113","content_text":"SummaryI placed a limit buy order for Apple at $140 in September. The order was triggered last Friday thanks to market volatility, and now I own more shares.There is no doubt that the business faces many short-term challenges.However, as Buffett commented, if you have to closely follow the day-to-day stuff, you should not own it in the first place.This wisdom is true for Apple more than anything else in my mind.Moreover, the market underestimates (or misunderstands) its SaaS potential and creates a mispricing.SereminInvestment thesisDuring the last week of September (September 25 to be exact), I sent an alert to our marketplace members. The alert informed them that I placed a limit buy order for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) at $140 and mythought process (the stock price then was about $150.5). A price of $140 corresponds to about 22x of its FW PE. To me, any valuation near 20x is very attractive for a stock with ROCE (return on capital employed) near 100% like AAPL. At about 100% ROCE, a 5% investment rate would provide 5% organic real growth rates (i.e., before inflation adjustments). And a 22x PE would provide about 5% owners earnings yield, leading to a total return close to double digits. For a stock like AAPL, I am always happy to buy/add when the total annual return is close to 10% or above. A 10% return is healthy enough to start with. Once you adjust for the risks (and I consider the risks from AAPL similar to treasury bonds), a 10% annual return is almost 3x of what you can get from bonds in the long term.Also, to put things under historical perspective, a valuation around 22x is also below the historical average of 24.7x in recent years by about 10% (11% to be exact), leaving a comfortable margin of safety. And also, bear in mind that the stock was so obviously before 2021 and those levels are outliers in my mind. So, the historical average of 24.75x is already biased.Source: Seeking Alpha dataAll told, thanks to market volatility, the stock price dipped below $140 a few days later on Sept 30. The order is triggered, and now I own more AAPL shares. I of course do not want to pretend that I have any idea that its price would actually dip below $140 or not. However, I do have a good sense of its intrinsic value and the magnitude of market gyrations. And as a long-term and patient investor, I do know that 22x PE is a good deal for a stock like AAPL.Near-term challengesThere is no shortage of external challenges in the near term. And these challenges can be substantial, too. They will continue to weigh on performance over the near term. These challenges include new variants of COVID-19, the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, unfavorable currency exchange rates, and high inflation and rising interest rates. In particular, you can see the effects that these headwinds have exerted on its margins. Over the past few quarters, its gross margin shrank by more than 200 basis points from a peak of 43.76% to 41.04%. Net profit margin shrank even more, by more than 450 basis points from a peak of 27.9% to 23.4%. China, its key market, had to lock down several of its key cities in the H1 of the year due to COVID-19, and the ongoing pandemic situation probably would lead to more lockdowns, which have impacted its sales and production and would very likely continue to in the near future.Source: Seeking Alpha dataAAPL and BuffettismHowever, as Buffett commented, if you have to closely follow the day-to-day stuff of a stock, you should not own it in the first place. He was once asked about his AAPL position during a Yahoo! Finance interview. You can see the full interview here, full of typical Buffett-style wisdom and highly recommended. The following is an excerpt and the highlights are added by me.Yahoo Finance: how closely do you follow the company? You know, people are concerned they really have not introduced any new products.Buffett: Well, if you have to closely follow the company, you should not own it in the first place. If you buy a business, say you buy a farm, do you go up and look every couple of weeks to see how far the corn has grown up? Do you worry too much about whether somebody says this year is going to be a year of low corn prices because exports are being affected or something? You know, it does not grow faster if I go and stare at it…AlthoughI do care over the years that it is well tended to in terms of rotating crops. And I hope yields get better.In my mind, this wisdom is truer for Apple than anything else. A high-yield farm is what exactly it is. As a high-yield farm, investors should have the perspective to overlook its daily (or even yearly) noises and focus on the long term, as detailed next.Business outlook and projected returnsI am optimistic about its future. The company has displayed remarkable resilience in the face of the difficult operating backdrop in the past. And I am certain that this time is no different. The inflation or drag from foreign exchange rates may worsen in the near term. But remember, Buffett's other wisdom isnotto pick stocks based on macroeconomic parameters - which are totally unpredictable and out of anyone's control.Altogether, consensus estimates look for share net to come in around $6.46 in 2023. And again, at a price of $140, the PE would be about 22x. Based on the consensus estimates, the growth rate would be about 4.6% CAGR in the next few years, which agrees with my back-of-envelope estimate closely. As aforementioned, at about 100% ROCE, a 5% investment rate would provide 5% organic real growth rates.All told, a 22x entry PE, combined with a ~5% growth rate, should provide about 10% total return for a long-term business owner.Source: Seeking Alpha dataNotably, services-related revenues should continue to advance and represent a strong engine for future growth. In this sense, AAPL is transitioning (or you can argue it has successfully transitioned already) from a hardware business into a subscription-based SaaS business.According to this report, it added ~30 million paid subscriptions in 2022 alone. Total revenues from services have been growing steadily and rapidly over the years and have reached $19.8 billion. In Q2 2022. Compared to $17.0 billion raked in from services during Q2 2021, this represented an annual growth rate of 16.5%, far outpacing the growth rates of its total revenue. Broadening the timeframe a bit, the growth in its revenues from services has grown more than 230% since 2017, also far outpacing the growth of its product sales (which increased by about 160%). In its latest earnings report, Tim Cook reported a mind-boggling total of 816 million paid subscriptions across its various services ranging from Apple Music, iCloud, and Apple TV+.Going forward, I see such a large user base to further grow given Apple's popularity and premium status. In my view, the market underestimates (or misunderstands) its SaaS potential. As seen from the chart below, it is trading at a sizeable discount relative to other more \"standard\" SaaS stocks. To wit, in terms of FY1 PE, it is trading slightly below Microsoft Corporation by about 4%, about 20% below Intuit Inc, and more than 27% below Salesforce Inc.Source: Seeking Alpha dataRisks and final thoughtsTo recap, there is no doubt that the business faces many short-term challenges. These challenges include the veritable list of the COVID-19 pandemic, the ongoing Russian/Ukraine situation, currency exchange rates, high inflation, and global supply chain disruptions. It also faces its own unique challenges such as margin pressure, cost control, and disruptions in its key China market.However, the whole point of owning a stock like AAPL is that you do not have to worry about the quarterly noises. If you do, you defeat the purpose completely and should not own it in the first place. To me, any valuation near 20x is very attractive for a stock with ROCE and financial strength like AAPL. A ~20x PE provides about 5% owner's earnings yield. And an ROCE near 100% easily leads to 5% growth rates with minimal reinvestments, resulting in a double-digit return potential already.Finally, specific to AAPL, the revenues and growth composition are also shifting to service and subscription, further augmenting its stickiness and profitability. The market underestimates (or misunderstands) its SaaS potential and most likely will regret it.This article is written by Envision Research for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912099012,"gmtCreate":1664694350137,"gmtModify":1676537495536,"author":{"id":"3577450970953718","authorId":"3577450970953718","name":"Minhoshuting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ab92b2914bd064ccd8620ef1d430ff","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577450970953718","idStr":"3577450970953718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912099012","repostId":"1198946799","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198946799","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664676307,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198946799?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-02 10:05","market":"other","language":"en","title":"This Crypto Analyst Says October Will Be A Bullish Month For Bitcoin, Here's Why","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198946799","media":"Benzinga","summary":"ZINGER KEY POINTSAt the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $19,318, close to two percent up in ","content":"<div>\n<p>ZINGER KEY POINTSAt the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $19,318, close to two percent up in the last seven days.According to James, Bitcoin could hit up to $26,000 over the next four weeks....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/22/10/29109049/this-crypto-analyst-says-october-will-be-a-bullish-month-for-bitcoin-heres-why\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Crypto Analyst Says October Will Be A Bullish Month For Bitcoin, Here's Why</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Crypto Analyst Says October Will Be A Bullish Month For Bitcoin, Here's Why\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-02 10:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/22/10/29109049/this-crypto-analyst-says-october-will-be-a-bullish-month-for-bitcoin-heres-why><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ZINGER KEY POINTSAt the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $19,318, close to two percent up in the last seven days.According to James, Bitcoin could hit up to $26,000 over the next four weeks....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/22/10/29109049/this-crypto-analyst-says-october-will-be-a-bullish-month-for-bitcoin-heres-why\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/22/10/29109049/this-crypto-analyst-says-october-will-be-a-bullish-month-for-bitcoin-heres-why","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198946799","content_text":"ZINGER KEY POINTSAt the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $19,318, close to two percent up in the last seven days.According to James, Bitcoin could hit up to $26,000 over the next four weeks.Cryptocurrency strategist James Altucher, the host and founder of InvestAnswers, says that as the last quarter of the year begins, October will be historically a bullish month for Bitcoin.According to him, Bitcoin could rise up to $26,000 over the next four weeks, based on the average return for October. In June, Bitcoin recorded a price of over $26,000; and August was the last time it rose above $25,000.At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $19,318, up close to two percent in the last seven days.\"Looking forward to October, the average return for October is 28.42%, which would take the Bitcoin price up to about $25,000 – $26,000. So, we'll see if it goes there. Twenty-five thousand dollars is where we were not too long ago, and we could easily get back to that level,\" he said.James has also said that October has offered the third-highest average monthly returns.\"Let's look at how October benchmarks against other months in the history of Bitcoin. Here you can see September is red August is like breakeven. But October is the third-best month historically. And that's why many people refer to it as Uptober.\"Last week, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Rostin Behnam said that regulations could benefit the crypto industry, including a potential boost to the price of Bitcoin.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911998284,"gmtCreate":1664107891448,"gmtModify":1676537391373,"author":{"id":"3577450970953718","authorId":"3577450970953718","name":"Minhoshuting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ab92b2914bd064ccd8620ef1d430ff","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577450970953718","idStr":"3577450970953718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911998284","repostId":"2270440281","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2270440281","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1664094564,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2270440281?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-25 16:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"After Feverish Week, Global Investors Lick Wounds and Brace for More Chaos","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2270440281","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) - Global investors are preparing for more market mayhem after a monumental week that whipsawed asset prices around the world, as central banks and governments ramped up their fight against i","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - Global investors are preparing for more market mayhem after a monumental week that whipsawed asset prices around the world, as central banks and governments ramped up their fight against inflation.</p><p>Signs of extraordinary times were everywhere. The Federal Reserve delivered its third straight seventy-five basis point rate hike while Japan intervened to shore up the yen for the first time since 1998. The British pound slid to a fresh 37-year trough against the dollar after the country&#39;s new finance minister unleashed historic tax cuts and huge increases in borrowing.</p><p>&#34;It&#39;s hard to know what will break where, and when,&#34; said Mike Kelly, head of multi-asset at PineBridge Investments (US). &#34;Before, the thinking had been that a recession would be short and shallow. Now we&#39;re throwing that away and thinking about the unintended consequences of much tighter monetary policy.&#34;</p><p>Stocks plunged everywhere. The Dow Jones Industrial Average nearly joined the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq in a bear market while bonds tumbled to their lowest level in years as investors recalibrated their portfolios to a world of persistent inflation and rising interest rates.</p><p>Towering above it all was the U.S. dollar, which has rocketed to its highest level in 20 years against a basket of currencies, lifted in part by investors seeking shelter from the wild swings in markets.</p><p>&#34;Currency exchange rates ... are now violent in their moves,&#34; said David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors. &#34;When governments and central banks are in the business of setting the interest rates they are shifting the volatility to the currency markets.&#34;</p><p>For now, the selloffs across asset classes have drawn few bargain hunters. In fact, many believe things are bound to get worse as tighter monetary policy across the globe raises the risks of a worldwide recession.</p><p>&#34;We remain cautious,&#34; said Russ Koesterich, who oversees the Global Allocation Fund for Blackrock, the world&#39;s largest asset manager, noting his allocation to equities is &#34;well below benchmark&#34; and he is also cautious on bonds.</p><p>&#34;I think there&#39;s a lot of uncertainty on how quickly inflation will come down, there&#39;s a lot of uncertainty about whether or not the Fed will go through with as an aggressive tightening campaign as they signaled this week.&#34;</p><p>Kotok said he is positioned conservatively with high cash levels. &#34;I&#39;d like to see enough of a selloff to make entry attractive in the U.S. stockmarket,&#34; Kotok said.</p><p>The fallout from the hectic week exacerbated trends for stocks and bonds that have been in place all year, pushing down prices for both asset classes. But the murky outlook meant that they were still not cheap enough for some investors.</p><p>&#34;We think the time to go long in equities is still ahead of us until we see signs that the market has bottomed,&#34; said Jake Jolly, senior investment strategist at BNY Mellon, who has been increasing his allocation to short duration sovereign bonds.</p><p>&#34;The market is getting closer and closer to pricing in this recession that is widely expected but it is not yet fully priced in.&#34;</p><p>Rough week in global equities https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-STOCKS/GLOBAL/dwvkrxoxapm/chart.png</p><p>Goldman Sachs strategists on Friday lowered their year-end target for the benchmark U.S. stock index, the S&amp;P 500, to 3,600 from 4,300. The index was last at 3,693.23.</p><p>Bond yields, which move inversely to prices, surged across the world. Yields on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury hit their highest level in more than 12 years, while Germany&#39;s two-year bond yield rose above 2% for the first time since late 2008. In the UK, five year gilts leapt 50 bps -- their biggest one-day jump since at least late 1991, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p>&#34;At some point, the fears will shift from inflation to growth,&#34; said Matthew Nest, global head of active fixed income at State Street Global Advisors, who thinks bond yields have moved so high they are starting to look &#34;pretty attractive.&#34;</p><p>Investors fear things will get worse before they get better.</p><p>&#34;The question is now not whether we are going into a recession, it is how deep will the recession be, and might we have some form of financial crisis and major global liquidity shock,&#34; said Mike Riddell, a senior fixed income portfolio manager at Allianz Global Investors in London.</p><p>Because monetary policy tends to work with a lag, Riddell estimates the renewed hawkishness from central banks means the global economy will be even weaker by the middle of next year.</p><p>&#34;We are of the view that markets are still massively underestimating the global economic growth hit that is coming,&#34; he said.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>After Feverish Week, Global Investors Lick Wounds and Brace for More Chaos</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter Feverish Week, Global Investors Lick Wounds and Brace for More Chaos\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-25 16:29</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - Global investors are preparing for more market mayhem after a monumental week that whipsawed asset prices around the world, as central banks and governments ramped up their fight against inflation.</p><p>Signs of extraordinary times were everywhere. The Federal Reserve delivered its third straight seventy-five basis point rate hike while Japan intervened to shore up the yen for the first time since 1998. The British pound slid to a fresh 37-year trough against the dollar after the country&#39;s new finance minister unleashed historic tax cuts and huge increases in borrowing.</p><p>&#34;It&#39;s hard to know what will break where, and when,&#34; said Mike Kelly, head of multi-asset at PineBridge Investments (US). &#34;Before, the thinking had been that a recession would be short and shallow. Now we&#39;re throwing that away and thinking about the unintended consequences of much tighter monetary policy.&#34;</p><p>Stocks plunged everywhere. The Dow Jones Industrial Average nearly joined the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq in a bear market while bonds tumbled to their lowest level in years as investors recalibrated their portfolios to a world of persistent inflation and rising interest rates.</p><p>Towering above it all was the U.S. dollar, which has rocketed to its highest level in 20 years against a basket of currencies, lifted in part by investors seeking shelter from the wild swings in markets.</p><p>&#34;Currency exchange rates ... are now violent in their moves,&#34; said David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors. &#34;When governments and central banks are in the business of setting the interest rates they are shifting the volatility to the currency markets.&#34;</p><p>For now, the selloffs across asset classes have drawn few bargain hunters. In fact, many believe things are bound to get worse as tighter monetary policy across the globe raises the risks of a worldwide recession.</p><p>&#34;We remain cautious,&#34; said Russ Koesterich, who oversees the Global Allocation Fund for Blackrock, the world&#39;s largest asset manager, noting his allocation to equities is &#34;well below benchmark&#34; and he is also cautious on bonds.</p><p>&#34;I think there&#39;s a lot of uncertainty on how quickly inflation will come down, there&#39;s a lot of uncertainty about whether or not the Fed will go through with as an aggressive tightening campaign as they signaled this week.&#34;</p><p>Kotok said he is positioned conservatively with high cash levels. &#34;I&#39;d like to see enough of a selloff to make entry attractive in the U.S. stockmarket,&#34; Kotok said.</p><p>The fallout from the hectic week exacerbated trends for stocks and bonds that have been in place all year, pushing down prices for both asset classes. But the murky outlook meant that they were still not cheap enough for some investors.</p><p>&#34;We think the time to go long in equities is still ahead of us until we see signs that the market has bottomed,&#34; said Jake Jolly, senior investment strategist at BNY Mellon, who has been increasing his allocation to short duration sovereign bonds.</p><p>&#34;The market is getting closer and closer to pricing in this recession that is widely expected but it is not yet fully priced in.&#34;</p><p>Rough week in global equities https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-STOCKS/GLOBAL/dwvkrxoxapm/chart.png</p><p>Goldman Sachs strategists on Friday lowered their year-end target for the benchmark U.S. stock index, the S&amp;P 500, to 3,600 from 4,300. The index was last at 3,693.23.</p><p>Bond yields, which move inversely to prices, surged across the world. Yields on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury hit their highest level in more than 12 years, while Germany&#39;s two-year bond yield rose above 2% for the first time since late 2008. In the UK, five year gilts leapt 50 bps -- their biggest one-day jump since at least late 1991, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p>&#34;At some point, the fears will shift from inflation to growth,&#34; said Matthew Nest, global head of active fixed income at State Street Global Advisors, who thinks bond yields have moved so high they are starting to look &#34;pretty attractive.&#34;</p><p>Investors fear things will get worse before they get better.</p><p>&#34;The question is now not whether we are going into a recession, it is how deep will the recession be, and might we have some form of financial crisis and major global liquidity shock,&#34; said Mike Riddell, a senior fixed income portfolio manager at Allianz Global Investors in London.</p><p>Because monetary policy tends to work with a lag, Riddell estimates the renewed hawkishness from central banks means the global economy will be even weaker by the middle of next year.</p><p>&#34;We are of the view that markets are still massively underestimating the global economic growth hit that is coming,&#34; he said.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2270440281","content_text":"(Reuters) - Global investors are preparing for more market mayhem after a monumental week that whipsawed asset prices around the world, as central banks and governments ramped up their fight against inflation.Signs of extraordinary times were everywhere. The Federal Reserve delivered its third straight seventy-five basis point rate hike while Japan intervened to shore up the yen for the first time since 1998. The British pound slid to a fresh 37-year trough against the dollar after the country's new finance minister unleashed historic tax cuts and huge increases in borrowing.\"It's hard to know what will break where, and when,\" said Mike Kelly, head of multi-asset at PineBridge Investments (US). \"Before, the thinking had been that a recession would be short and shallow. Now we're throwing that away and thinking about the unintended consequences of much tighter monetary policy.\"Stocks plunged everywhere. The Dow Jones Industrial Average nearly joined the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in a bear market while bonds tumbled to their lowest level in years as investors recalibrated their portfolios to a world of persistent inflation and rising interest rates.Towering above it all was the U.S. dollar, which has rocketed to its highest level in 20 years against a basket of currencies, lifted in part by investors seeking shelter from the wild swings in markets.\"Currency exchange rates ... are now violent in their moves,\" said David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors. \"When governments and central banks are in the business of setting the interest rates they are shifting the volatility to the currency markets.\"For now, the selloffs across asset classes have drawn few bargain hunters. In fact, many believe things are bound to get worse as tighter monetary policy across the globe raises the risks of a worldwide recession.\"We remain cautious,\" said Russ Koesterich, who oversees the Global Allocation Fund for Blackrock, the world's largest asset manager, noting his allocation to equities is \"well below benchmark\" and he is also cautious on bonds.\"I think there's a lot of uncertainty on how quickly inflation will come down, there's a lot of uncertainty about whether or not the Fed will go through with as an aggressive tightening campaign as they signaled this week.\"Kotok said he is positioned conservatively with high cash levels. \"I'd like to see enough of a selloff to make entry attractive in the U.S. stockmarket,\" Kotok said.The fallout from the hectic week exacerbated trends for stocks and bonds that have been in place all year, pushing down prices for both asset classes. But the murky outlook meant that they were still not cheap enough for some investors.\"We think the time to go long in equities is still ahead of us until we see signs that the market has bottomed,\" said Jake Jolly, senior investment strategist at BNY Mellon, who has been increasing his allocation to short duration sovereign bonds.\"The market is getting closer and closer to pricing in this recession that is widely expected but it is not yet fully priced in.\"Rough week in global equities https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-STOCKS/GLOBAL/dwvkrxoxapm/chart.pngGoldman Sachs strategists on Friday lowered their year-end target for the benchmark U.S. stock index, the S&P 500, to 3,600 from 4,300. The index was last at 3,693.23.Bond yields, which move inversely to prices, surged across the world. Yields on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury hit their highest level in more than 12 years, while Germany's two-year bond yield rose above 2% for the first time since late 2008. In the UK, five year gilts leapt 50 bps -- their biggest one-day jump since at least late 1991, according to Refinitiv data.\"At some point, the fears will shift from inflation to growth,\" said Matthew Nest, global head of active fixed income at State Street Global Advisors, who thinks bond yields have moved so high they are starting to look \"pretty attractive.\"Investors fear things will get worse before they get better.\"The question is now not whether we are going into a recession, it is how deep will the recession be, and might we have some form of financial crisis and major global liquidity shock,\" said Mike Riddell, a senior fixed income portfolio manager at Allianz Global Investors in London.Because monetary policy tends to work with a lag, Riddell estimates the renewed hawkishness from central banks means the global economy will be even weaker by the middle of next year.\"We are of the view that markets are still massively underestimating the global economic growth hit that is coming,\" he said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2884,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937778446,"gmtCreate":1663516630385,"gmtModify":1676537282168,"author":{"id":"3577450970953718","authorId":"3577450970953718","name":"Minhoshuting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ab92b2914bd064ccd8620ef1d430ff","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577450970953718","idStr":"3577450970953718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937778446","repostId":"2268672370","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2268672370","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1663460267,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2268672370?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-18 08:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can the Fed Tame Inflation Without Further Crushing the Stock Market? What Investors Need to Know","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2268672370","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investors should brace for more volatility with policy makers expected to deliver another jumbo rate","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Investors should brace for more volatility with policy makers expected to deliver another jumbo rate hike</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4166c0ac7b0bdf7caa1837ef618a67\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Fed Chair Jerome Powell says bringing down inflation will cause pain for households and businesses.</span></p><p>The Federal Reserve isn’t trying to slam the stock market as it rapidly raises interest rates in its bid to slow inflation still running red hot — but investors need to be prepared for more pain and volatility because policy makers aren’t going to be cowed by a deepening selloff, investors and strategists said.</p><p>“I don’t think they’re necessarily trying to drive inflation down by destroying stock prices or bond prices, but it is having that effect.” said Tim Courtney, chief investment officer at Exencial Wealth Advisors, in an interview.</p><p>U.S. stocks fell sharply in the past week after hopes for a pronounced cooling in inflation were dashed by a hotter-than-expected August inflation reading. The data cemented expectations among fed-funds futures traders for a rate hike of at least 75 basis points when the Fed concludes its policy meeting on Sept. 21, with some traders and analysts looking for an increase of 100 basis points, or a full percentage point.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average logged a 4.1% weekly fall, while the S&amp;P 500 dropped 4.8% and the Nasdaq Composite suffered a 5.5% decline. The S&amp;P 500 ended Friday below the 3,900 level viewed as an important area of technical support, with some chart watchers eyeing the potential for a test of the large-cap benchmark’s 2022 low at 3,666.77 set on June 16.</p><p>A profit warning from global shipping giant and economic bellwether FedEx Corp. further stoked recession fears, contributing to stock-market losses on Friday.</p><p>Treasurys also fell, with yield on the 2-year Treasury note soaring to a nearly 15-year high above 3.85% on expectations the Fed will continue pushing rates higher in coming months. Yields rise as prices fall.</p><p>Investors are operating in an environment where the central bank’s need to rein in stubborn inflation is widely seen having eliminated the notion of a figurative “Fed put” on the stock market.</p><p>The concept of a Fed put has been around since at least the October 1987 stock-market crash prompted the Alan Greenspan-led central bank to lower interest rates. An actual put option is a financial derivative that gives the holder the right but not the obligation to sell the underlying asset at a set level, known as the strike price, serving as an insurance policy against a market decline.</p><p>Some economists and analysts have even suggested the Fed should welcome or even aim for market losses, which could serve to tighten financial conditions as investors scale back spending.</p><p>William Dudley, the former president of the New York Fed, argued earlier this year that the central bank won’t get a handle on inflation that’s running near a 40-year high unless they make investors suffer. “It’s hard to know how much the Federal Reserve will need to do to get inflation under control,” wrote Dudley in a Bloomberg column in April. “But one thing is certain: to be effective, it’ll have to inflict more losses on stock and bond investors than it has so far.”</p><p>Some market participants aren’t convinced. Aoifinn Devitt, chief investment officer at Moneta,said the Fed likely sees stock-market volatility as a byproduct of its efforts to tighten monetary policy, not an objective.</p><p>“They recognize that stocks can be collateral damage in a tightening cycle,” but that doesn’t mean that stocks “have to collapse,” Devitt said.</p><p>The Fed, however, is prepared to tolerate seeing markets decline and the economy slow and even tip into recession as it focuses on taming inflation, she said.</p><p>The Federal Reserve held the fed funds target rate at a range of 0% to 0.25% between 2008 and 2015, as it dealt with the financial crisis and its aftermath. The Fed also cut rates to near zero again in March 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. With a rock-bottom interest rate, the Dow skyrocketed over 40%, while the large-cap index S&amp;P 500 jumped over 60% between March 2020 and December 2021, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p>Investors got used to “the tailwind for over a decade with falling interest rates” while looking for the Fed to step in with its “put” should the going get rocky, said Courtney at Exencial Wealth Advisors.</p><p>“I think (now) the Fed message is ‘you’re not gonna get this tailwind anymore’,” Courtney told MarketWatch on Thursday. “I think markets can grow, but they’re gonna have to grow on their own because the markets are like a greenhouse where the temperatures have to be kept at a certain level all day and all night, and I think that’s the message that markets can and should grow on their own without the greenhouse effect.”</p><p>Meanwhile, the Fed’s aggressive stance means investors should be prepared for what may be a “few more daily stabs downward” that could eventually prove to be a “final big flush,” said Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi, in a Thursday note.</p><p>“This may sound odd, but if that happens swiftly, meaning within the next couple months, that actually becomes the bull case in my view,” she said. “It could be a quick and painful drop, resulting in a renewed move higher later in the year that’s more durable, as inflation falls more notably.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can the Fed Tame Inflation Without Further Crushing the Stock Market? What Investors Need to Know</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan the Fed Tame Inflation Without Further Crushing the Stock Market? What Investors Need to Know\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-18 08:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-isnt-trying-to-wreck-the-stock-market-as-it-wrestles-with-inflation-but-it-isnt-going-to-ride-to-the-rescue-11663366540?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors should brace for more volatility with policy makers expected to deliver another jumbo rate hikeFed Chair Jerome Powell says bringing down inflation will cause pain for households and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-isnt-trying-to-wreck-the-stock-market-as-it-wrestles-with-inflation-but-it-isnt-going-to-ride-to-the-rescue-11663366540?mod=home-page\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-isnt-trying-to-wreck-the-stock-market-as-it-wrestles-with-inflation-but-it-isnt-going-to-ride-to-the-rescue-11663366540?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2268672370","content_text":"Investors should brace for more volatility with policy makers expected to deliver another jumbo rate hikeFed Chair Jerome Powell says bringing down inflation will cause pain for households and businesses.The Federal Reserve isn’t trying to slam the stock market as it rapidly raises interest rates in its bid to slow inflation still running red hot — but investors need to be prepared for more pain and volatility because policy makers aren’t going to be cowed by a deepening selloff, investors and strategists said.“I don’t think they’re necessarily trying to drive inflation down by destroying stock prices or bond prices, but it is having that effect.” said Tim Courtney, chief investment officer at Exencial Wealth Advisors, in an interview.U.S. stocks fell sharply in the past week after hopes for a pronounced cooling in inflation were dashed by a hotter-than-expected August inflation reading. The data cemented expectations among fed-funds futures traders for a rate hike of at least 75 basis points when the Fed concludes its policy meeting on Sept. 21, with some traders and analysts looking for an increase of 100 basis points, or a full percentage point.The Dow Jones Industrial Average logged a 4.1% weekly fall, while the S&P 500 dropped 4.8% and the Nasdaq Composite suffered a 5.5% decline. The S&P 500 ended Friday below the 3,900 level viewed as an important area of technical support, with some chart watchers eyeing the potential for a test of the large-cap benchmark’s 2022 low at 3,666.77 set on June 16.A profit warning from global shipping giant and economic bellwether FedEx Corp. further stoked recession fears, contributing to stock-market losses on Friday.Treasurys also fell, with yield on the 2-year Treasury note soaring to a nearly 15-year high above 3.85% on expectations the Fed will continue pushing rates higher in coming months. Yields rise as prices fall.Investors are operating in an environment where the central bank’s need to rein in stubborn inflation is widely seen having eliminated the notion of a figurative “Fed put” on the stock market.The concept of a Fed put has been around since at least the October 1987 stock-market crash prompted the Alan Greenspan-led central bank to lower interest rates. An actual put option is a financial derivative that gives the holder the right but not the obligation to sell the underlying asset at a set level, known as the strike price, serving as an insurance policy against a market decline.Some economists and analysts have even suggested the Fed should welcome or even aim for market losses, which could serve to tighten financial conditions as investors scale back spending.William Dudley, the former president of the New York Fed, argued earlier this year that the central bank won’t get a handle on inflation that’s running near a 40-year high unless they make investors suffer. “It’s hard to know how much the Federal Reserve will need to do to get inflation under control,” wrote Dudley in a Bloomberg column in April. “But one thing is certain: to be effective, it’ll have to inflict more losses on stock and bond investors than it has so far.”Some market participants aren’t convinced. Aoifinn Devitt, chief investment officer at Moneta,said the Fed likely sees stock-market volatility as a byproduct of its efforts to tighten monetary policy, not an objective.“They recognize that stocks can be collateral damage in a tightening cycle,” but that doesn’t mean that stocks “have to collapse,” Devitt said.The Fed, however, is prepared to tolerate seeing markets decline and the economy slow and even tip into recession as it focuses on taming inflation, she said.The Federal Reserve held the fed funds target rate at a range of 0% to 0.25% between 2008 and 2015, as it dealt with the financial crisis and its aftermath. The Fed also cut rates to near zero again in March 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. With a rock-bottom interest rate, the Dow skyrocketed over 40%, while the large-cap index S&P 500 jumped over 60% between March 2020 and December 2021, according to Dow Jones Market Data.Investors got used to “the tailwind for over a decade with falling interest rates” while looking for the Fed to step in with its “put” should the going get rocky, said Courtney at Exencial Wealth Advisors.“I think (now) the Fed message is ‘you’re not gonna get this tailwind anymore’,” Courtney told MarketWatch on Thursday. “I think markets can grow, but they’re gonna have to grow on their own because the markets are like a greenhouse where the temperatures have to be kept at a certain level all day and all night, and I think that’s the message that markets can and should grow on their own without the greenhouse effect.”Meanwhile, the Fed’s aggressive stance means investors should be prepared for what may be a “few more daily stabs downward” that could eventually prove to be a “final big flush,” said Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi, in a Thursday note.“This may sound odd, but if that happens swiftly, meaning within the next couple months, that actually becomes the bull case in my view,” she said. “It could be a quick and painful drop, resulting in a renewed move higher later in the year that’s more durable, as inflation falls more notably.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2939,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9992360576,"gmtCreate":1661264327200,"gmtModify":1676536485151,"author":{"id":"3577450970953718","authorId":"3577450970953718","name":"Minhoshuting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ab92b2914bd064ccd8620ef1d430ff","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577450970953718","idStr":"3577450970953718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9992360576","repostId":"1192361061","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192361061","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1661262291,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1192361061?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-23 21:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC Preferred Stock Jumped 20% in Morning Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192361061","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"AMC Preferred stock jumped 20% in morning trading.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>AMC Preferred stock jumped 20% in morning trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55086bf708745273c3acbdff1429afa4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Preferred Stock Jumped 20% in Morning Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC Preferred Stock Jumped 20% in Morning Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-08-23 21:44</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>AMC Preferred stock jumped 20% in morning trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55086bf708745273c3acbdff1429afa4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线","APE":"AMC Entertainment Preferred"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192361061","content_text":"AMC Preferred stock jumped 20% in morning trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"APE":0.9,"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2252,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9998638885,"gmtCreate":1660975880548,"gmtModify":1676536434412,"author":{"id":"3577450970953718","authorId":"3577450970953718","name":"Minhoshuting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ab92b2914bd064ccd8620ef1d430ff","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577450970953718","idStr":"3577450970953718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9998638885","repostId":"2260323630","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2260323630","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1660952700,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2260323630?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-20 07:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Top Stocks to Buy During a Sell-Off","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2260323630","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Oracle, General Mills, and LVMH are all good defensive plays.","content":"<div>\n<p>The S&P 500 has rallied about 10% over the past month as declining gas prices and signs of supply chain improvements have suggested that brighter days are ahead. However, the benchmark index remains ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/19/3-top-stocks-to-buy-during-a-sell-off/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Top Stocks to Buy During a Sell-Off</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Top Stocks to Buy During a Sell-Off\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-20 07:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/19/3-top-stocks-to-buy-during-a-sell-off/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The S&P 500 has rallied about 10% over the past month as declining gas prices and signs of supply chain improvements have suggested that brighter days are ahead. However, the benchmark index remains ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/19/3-top-stocks-to-buy-during-a-sell-off/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ORCL":"甲骨文","GIS":"通用磨坊","LVMUY":"路易威登"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/19/3-top-stocks-to-buy-during-a-sell-off/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2260323630","content_text":"The S&P 500 has rallied about 10% over the past month as declining gas prices and signs of supply chain improvements have suggested that brighter days are ahead. However, the benchmark index remains down about 10% year to date -- and rising interest rates could still trigger even steeper declines.So instead of going all-in on the market's wobbly rebound, investors should still keep an eye on defensive stocks that can withstand its next downturn. I believe three resilient stocks fit that description: Oracle, General Mills, and LVMH.Image source: Getty Images.1. OracleOracle, the world's top database management software company, had once been considered an also-ran of the tech sector. Its sales of on-premise software had been cooling off across the saturated market, and cloud-based challengers like Amazon and Microsoft were threatening to disrupt its aging business.But instead of sitting still and becoming obsolete, Oracle transformed its on-premise software into cloud-based services. It also expanded that sticky ecosystem with enterprise resource planning (ERP) tools through several big acquisitions. Those efforts were costly, but they enabled Oracle to consistently grow its revenues again and avoid becoming the next IBM.Oracle's revenue growth stalled out in fiscal 2019 and 2020 (which ended in May of the calendar year) as it implemented those turnaround strategies. But its revenue subsequently rose 4% in fiscal 2021 and 5% in fiscal 2022. It expects its cloud revenues to grow 30% organically in fiscal 2023, accelerating from its 22% growth in fiscal 2022, while analysts expect its total revenue (including its recent acquisition of Cerner) to rise 17%.Oracle's earnings per share have also risen consistently, partly driven by buybacks, and analysts expect its earnings (including Cerner) to grow 67% this year. That's an impressive growth rate for a stock that trades at less than 20 times forward earnings. It's also reduced its share count by 45% over the past 10 years and pays a decent forward dividend yield of 1.6%.2. General MillsGeneral Mills sells over 100 brands of packaged food products, including Cheerios, Yoplait, Häagen-Dazs, Betty Crocker, Green Giant, and Pillsbury. It also sells premium pet products through its Blue Buffalo subsidiary.General Mills is a great stock to own during a downturn for three reasons. First, its business is resistant to inflation, recessions, and other macroeconomic headwinds because people (and their pets) need to eat. For fiscal 2023 (which started this May), General Mills expects its organic sales to increase 4% to 5% and for its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) to grow 0% to 3% in constant currency terms. That stable outlook suggests it can comfortably pass on some of its inflationary costs to consumers with price hikes while protecting its bottom-line growth with tighter cost-cutting measures.Second, it's firmly profitable and pays out nearly half its earnings to fund its forward dividend yield of 2.8%. The company and its predecessor have also paid out uninterrupted dividends for more than a century. Lastly, General Mills' stock is still cheap at 19 times forward earnings. That low valuation arguably makes it more attractive than comparable packaged foods stalwarts like Coca-Cola and PepsiCo, which currently trade at 26 and 27 times forward earnings, respectively.3. LVMHLastly, high-end luxury stocks are good defensive plays during market downturns because affluent customers are more resistant to macro headwinds. My favorite play in that sector is LVMH, the world's largest luxury company. The French conglomerate owns 75 houses across five markets -- wines and spirits, fashion and leather goods, perfumes and cosmetics, watches and jewelry, and selective retailing -- and its top brands include Louis Vuitton, Dior, Fendi, Loewe, Bvlgari, Tiffany & Co., Hennessy, and Sephora.LVMH experienced a slowdown during the pandemic as it temporarily closed many of its stores. But in 2021, its revenue surged 44% as its net profit soared 156%. Relative to 2019 (which skips the pandemic-related disruptions), its revenue and profit rose 20% and 68%, respectively.LVMH faces some near-term challenges -- including supply chain disruptions, the Russo-Ukrainian war, and intermittent COVID lockdowns in China -- but inflation shouldn't pose much of a threat because it can easily pass on its higher costs to its well-heeled consumers.That's why analysts expect LVMH's revenue and net profit to rise 18% and 17%, respectively, this year. Its stock is reasonably valued at 25 times next year's earnings -- especially considering that its rival Hermès trades at 50 times forward earnings -- and it pays a decent forward yield of 1.7%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LVMUY":0.9,"GIS":0.9,"ORCL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2866,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9991452259,"gmtCreate":1660872874573,"gmtModify":1676536415693,"author":{"id":"3577450970953718","authorId":"3577450970953718","name":"Minhoshuting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ab92b2914bd064ccd8620ef1d430ff","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577450970953718","idStr":"3577450970953718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok&nbsp;","listText":"Ok&nbsp;","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9991452259","repostId":"1102999640","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102999640","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1660865795,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102999640?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-19 07:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A $2 Trillion Stock-Options Deadline Is Make-Or-Break Moment for Bulls","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102999640","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Options trading seen having lifted stocks, capping volatilityBrace for price swings in both directions: Nomura strategistWith August shaping up to be the calmest month this year for US stocks, traders","content":"<div>\n<p>Options trading seen having lifted stocks, capping volatilityBrace for price swings in both directions: Nomura strategistWith August shaping up to be the calmest month this year for US stocks, traders...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-18/a-2-tri\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A $2 Trillion Stock-Options Deadline Is Make-Or-Break Moment for Bulls</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA $2 Trillion Stock-Options Deadline Is Make-Or-Break Moment for Bulls\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-19 07:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-18/a-2-tri><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Options trading seen having lifted stocks, capping volatilityBrace for price swings in both directions: Nomura strategistWith August shaping up to be the calmest month this year for US stocks, traders...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-18/a-2-tri\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-18/a-2-tri","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102999640","content_text":"Options trading seen having lifted stocks, capping volatilityBrace for price swings in both directions: Nomura strategistWith August shaping up to be the calmest month this year for US stocks, traders are closely watching Friday’s $2 trillion options expiration for hints whether the tranquility will last.At issue is the belief that derivatives markets have somehow played a key role in suppressing volatility, thereby compelling rules-basedquant tradersto buy shares and in turn luring a broader group of investors back into the market in order tochase gains.After likely spurring an equity rebound during the summer lull, some strategists warn that this benign activity in the options market -- typically fueled by Wall Street dealers -- could disappear at a critical time.From central bankers’ annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, to pending data on inflation and employment, and theFederal Reserve’s policy announcement, the next few weeks are full of potential catalysts for market chaos.“There are some technical reasons why as we go into the expiration this Friday, volatility could stay dampened and you could continue to see the market relatively supported,” Amy Wu Silverman, an equity derivatives strategist at RBC Capital Markets, said on Bloomberg TV. “As people return back from vacation with eyes on the ball, you can see what the real volumes are telling you about the volatility pickup.”About $2 trillion of options are set to expire, obliging holders to either roll over existing positions or start new ones. The monthly event includes $975 billion of S&P 500-linked contracts and $430 billion of derivatives across single stocks scheduled to run out, according to estimates by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategist Rocky Fishman.Stocks have restored roughly $7 trillion in values since mid-June, as what began as a short squeeze cascaded into a buying spree by those who exited equities during the first-half carnage amid fears that the Fed’s aggressive inflation-fighting campaign could tip the economy into a recession. Shares have since recovered as data showed a robust labor market and cooler-than-expected inflation.Along the way, traders flocked to call options to catch up with the surprising rebound. In balancing their books, options dealers were stuck in “long gamma” positions that left them needing to go against the prevailing equity trend to maintain a neutral market exposure. Thanks in part to the process, peace returned in the market. The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, has averaged 21 in August, on course for its lowest level since November.Broadly speaking, bullish contracts have been changing hands faster than bearish ones. The Cboe equity put-call ratio’s 10-day average hovered near a four-month low, a sign of growing interest in upside wagers.Traders will try to push the S&P 500 toward 4,300 in order to get their options contracts to pay off, according to Brent Kochuba, founder of analytic service SpotGamma. Any failure to hit this threshold would suggest the latest rally is losing momentum, potentially inviting sellers. The index added 0.2% to close at 4,283.74 Thursday.“Everyone is on the ‘call side’ of the boat,” said Kochuba.Charlie McElligott, a cross-asset strategist at Nomura Securities International, expects Friday’s OpEx to open the door for bigger price swings after the buffer from dealer hedging is reduced. He sees potential for the market to move in either direction.Should inflation come in hotter than expected and Fed policy makers ratchet up their hawkish rhetoric, that’d trigger turmoil across assets, he says. On the other hand, barring any negative macro shocks, money managers are under pressure to keep chasing the rally given their relatively low equity positioning.“My daily communications with clients continues to ‘hate’ this rally who remain wrong-sided and a source of ‘buyers higher,’” he wrote in a note Wednesday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3407,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9991850054,"gmtCreate":1660810962680,"gmtModify":1676536403980,"author":{"id":"3577450970953718","authorId":"3577450970953718","name":"Minhoshuting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ab92b2914bd064ccd8620ef1d430ff","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577450970953718","idStr":"3577450970953718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"k","listText":"k","text":"k","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9991850054","repostId":"1115956301","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1115956301","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1660805777,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1115956301?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-18 14:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO: Delisting, Supply Constraints, And A Faltering Chinese Economy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115956301","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNIO has been trading range-bound at the $20-level in recent months following a brief surge in","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>NIO has been trading range-bound at the $20-level in recent months following a brief surge in easing COVID disruptions in China.</li><li>While its fundamentals remain resilient, its valuation outlook continues to be constrained by risks pertaining to a potential delisting from the NYSE, ongoing supply constraints, and a slowing Chinese economy.</li><li>The following analysis will explore the different risks weighing on the &#34;fundamental&#34; and &#34;multiple&#34; factors that drive NIO&#39;s valuation prospects, as well as their related implications.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a38855d4d8edc529ec25a5e46399631\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"686\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Michael Vi</span></p><p>The NIO stock (NYSE:NIO) has been range-bound at the $20-level in recent months after the run-up through June on accelerating production and delivery ramp-up improvements as China&#39;s monthslong COVID disruptions to supply chains started to ease. Other positive catalyststhat have supported the stock in its current $20-range after its climb from an all-time low in the $10-range in mid-May include favourable policy support from the central and municipal Chinese governments on shoring up electric vehicle (&#34;EV&#34;) adoption in the region, as well as NIO&#39;s aggressive growth plans such as the upcoming introduction of new sub-brands to better penetrate mass market opportunities.</p><p>Yet, ongoing weakness in economic sentiment spanning a worsening domestic property slump and slowing consumption in China, as well as the fluid COVID situation remain prominent risks weighing on the NIO stock&#39;s near-term performance. The recent slew of voluntary exits from U.S. exchanges by state-backed companies have also renewed concerns of delisting risks stemming from the &#34;Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act&#34; (&#34;HFCAA&#34;) enforced by the U.S. SEC.</p><p>Heading into NIO&#39;s second quarter earnings call, the key focus area beyond its production and delivery ramp-up efforts is where the Chinese EV maker stands when it comes to managing regulatory risks, as well as how it will fare within the increasingly competitive landscape while broader macro uncertainties continue to worsen. On one hand, NIO&#39;s progress in ramping up volumes - a key focus area for most automakers within the industry&#39;s supply-driven operational environment - will be a core driver of the &#34;fundamental&#34; factor weighing on its valuation prospects. Meanwhile, on the other hand, NIO&#39;s position amid mounting regulatory risks and broad-based market uncertainties will determine the &#34;multiple&#34; factor weighing on its valuation prospects.</p><p>The following analysis will explore both perspectives and their related implications on the NIO stock&#39;s outlook. We continue to caution regulatory risks as the largest factor that has been capping the stock&#39;s ability in unlocking its true valuation upsides, despite continued demonstration of resilient fundamentals from the underlying business.</p><p><b>2Q22 and July&#39;22 Production and Deliveries</b></p><p>As previously discussed in our most recent coverage on the stock, NIO&#39;s record-setting deliveries during the second quarter, especially in June, continues to underscore its impressive strength in re-ramping productions as the worst of supply and logistics constraints resulting from recent COVID restrictions in core Chinese manufacturing hubs start to ease.</p><p>Specifically, productions of the newest ET7 sedan, which began in March, was a highlight with 40x growth during the second quarter. Despite a slight setback in July due to limited supply of casting parts used in the production of its ET7 sedans, NIO has maintained momentum in ramping up productions with 2,473 units of the premium electric sedans delivered in the first month of 3Q22. This represents a delivery run-rate of at least 7,400 units of the ET7 in the current quarter (approx. +10% q/q), especially given its ongoing efforts in &#34;working closely with supply chain partners [to] accelerate vehicle production in the following months of the third quarter of 2022&#34;. The positive results continue to underscore NIO&#39;s strength in navigating through unprecedented disruptions from supply chain bottlenecks across the auto industry.</p><p><b>Key Focus Areas Weighing on NIO&#39;s Fundamentals</b></p><p>Looking ahead, NIO is expected to post an even stronger second half of the year, with the introduction of a strong product pipeline that adds the newest ES7 SUV to its sales mix later this month, alongside updated 2022 ES8, ES6 and EC6 SUVs. Favourable policy support in China will also continue to be a boon to NIO&#39;s operational performance in the second half of the year.</p><p><b>1. Near- to Medium-Term Focus</b></p><p>Specifically, from a fundamental perspective, the key focus area remains on NIO&#39;s ability to ramp up productions and deliveries within the supply-driven auto industry as mentioned in the earlier section. The lack of supplies and lingering logistics constraints from pandemic-era disruptions have upended the auto industry over the past year, especially for Chinese OEMs due to the region&#39;s strict COVID Zero policy which remain a pronounced downside risk for NIO. This is further corroborated by the Chinese EV maker&#39;s struggle with supply shortages in July that have impacted its ET7 sedan and EC6 SUV volumes per its latest delivery update, highlighting how NIO&#39;s production and delivery progress have largely been determined by &#34;supply availability&#34; over the past year.</p><p>Investors will remain focused on updates regarding NIO&#39;s working relationship with suppliers at the EV maker&#39;s upcoming earnings call to gauge whether production can accelerate through the third quarter and the remainder of the year as management had promised. Another key focus area remains on whether any positive progress has been made since NIO&#39;s July delivery update press release, which in our view would imply improving fundamentals, lifting the stock from its current range-bound situation.</p><p><b>2. Longer-Term Focus</b></p><p>Over the longer-term, NIO&#39;s progress on growing its market share through globalization, and primarily, domestic expansion with newly planned sub-brands to better penetrate mass market opportunities will be the core piece in bolstering its fundamental performance. China remains the largest EV market, underscoring NIO&#39;s growth opportunities ahead as it works to extend its reach beyond the premium market.</p><p>Specifically, China is expected to sell a new record of at least 6 million EVs by the end of the year, which would be double of the 3 million EVs sold in 2021. In July, China&#39;s EV sales represented more than a quarter of total new car registrations, underscoring the rapid rebound in demand following stringent COVID mobility restrictions in the preceding months. This continues to serve favourable tailwinds for domestic EV makers like NIO, which currently represent close to a fifth of China&#39;s EV sales, and growing. The statistics also validate current market observations of no material demand destruction observed across the Chinese EV market despite the recent economic slowdown, underscoring the industry&#39;s resilience and sustained growth as supply constraints - the primarily roadblock to further expansion - continue to ease.</p><p>To better penetrate the growing domestic opportunities, NIO has been diversifying its portfolio of premium offerings to address demand across various price and vehicle segments, as observed through its recent introduction of newly designed mid-sized SUVs, as well as premium sedans. More importantly, NIO&#39;s upcoming launch of new lower-priced sub-brands focused on the mass market will further its fundamental growth over the longer-term.</p><p>As discussed in detail in one of our previous coverages, NIO&#39;s introduction of a new sub-brand priced in the range of RMB 200,000 ($30,000) to RMB 300,000 ($44,000) will be critical in extending its reach beyond the premium EV market in China:</p><blockquote>Pertaining to NIO&#39;s new mass market brand, which was first mentioned in August 2021, the Chinese EV maker confirmed that it has entered into a &#34;strategic cooperation agreement with Hefei on the second phase of vehicle production plant and the facilities for key components at NeoPark&#34; in early May. However, specific details over the product pipeline and related pricing remain uncertain. To date, NIO has only disclosed that the new sub-brand will be a direct competition to Tesla&#39;s best-selling Model 3 and Model Y in China, but at a 10% discount in the RMB 200,000 ($30,000) to RMB 300,000 ($44,000) price range.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: &#34;EV Roundup: Everything from Tesla to NIO, U.S. to China&#34;</blockquote><p>Start of productions and customer deliveries on the sub-brand offerings are expected to begin in the second half of 2024, supported by internally-developed 800-volt battery packs that are expected to launch around the same time. This continues to underscore NIO&#39;s strengths in maximizing returns on its investments in building out a vertically integrated business model. We view the internalized production of 800-volt battery packs, which offer better range and faster charge times, as a positive development in reducing reliance from its sole third-party battery supplier CATL amid the increasingly constrained raw material supply chain, while also aiding better cost controls to sustain continued auto margin expansion over the longer-term.</p><p>In addition to the highly-anticipated sub-brand that NIO first introduced and confirmed in August 2021, there have also recently been reports circulating about NIO&#39;s plans on expanding further with a second sub-brand priced in the RMB 100,000 ($15,000) range to better compete against SAIC-GM-Wuling, the best-selling EV brand in China with its low-priced offerings like the &#34;Hongguang Mini&#34; (approx. $5,000) and the newest &#34;Baojun KiWi&#34; (approx. $11,000). Although this development has yet to be confirmed by NIO management, the materialization of the two sub-brands is expected to improve NIO&#39;s overall appeal to the mass market and support its ongoing efforts in penetrating opportunities within China&#39;s smaller tier 3 and tier 4 cities like Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang, which are &#34;generally sensitive to monetary attributes&#34;.</p><p><b>Key Focus Areas Weighing on NIO Stock&#39;s Valuations</b></p><p>NIO&#39;s presence in the SEC&#39;s rolling list of delinquent issuers whose auditors are currently non-compliant with PCAOB inspection requests remains the biggest overhang on the stock&#39;s valuation from the &#34;multiple&#34; perspective.</p><p>While we have previously pointed to NIO&#39;s partial state-ownership (approx. 8%) as a potential shield against ongoing regulatory woes at home experienced by data-heavy tech companies over the past year, the exact same structure might now backfire. The recent slew of voluntary delisting from U.S. exchanges observed across &#34;China&#39;s state-owned enterprises&#34; are sounding the alarm for a similar fate for NIO, given the partial stake owned by a consortium of municipal government agencies. As mentioned in the earlier section, national security concerns remain the biggest reason in China&#39;s pushback against U.S.-mandated PCAOB audit inspections. With NIO being a massive source of data on personal travel patterns across the domestic population, along with a meaningful organizational structural link to state-backed agencies, it could be caught in the ongoing regulatory tug-of-war between the CSRC and U.S. SEC, which remains the primary drag in its valuation discount to peers in the U.S. EV market. Specifically, many foreign investors have already abstained from committing new allocations to Chinese funds over the past 12 months as they remain on the sidelines due to mounting regulatory risks, causing the valuation multiples on Chinese equities to lose their lustre compared to their American counterparts.</p><p>While NIO&#39;s &#34;homecoming&#34; listing in Hong Kong and additional listing in Singapore provides partial insulation against delisting risks by offering shareholders from its primary U.S. listing with an option to convert their ADRs for equivalents in the Asian exchanges in the unlikely event of its exit from the NYSE, it will be at a less attractive valuation. This represents another reason why NIO continues to trade at a discounted valuation multiple to its American peers despite having a &#34;back-up plan&#34; against U.S. delisting risks. The Asian exchanges are known for their &#34;less active and liquid markets&#34; compared to American exchanges - in Hong Kong, turnover in dual-listed stocks is merely half of volumes observed on the American exchanges, with risks of further declines as &#34;some institutional investors will not trade these stocks anymore&#34; if the primary U.S. listing is eliminated.</p><p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p>Based on the foregoing analysis, it is clear as day that regulatory risks remain the largest overhang on the NIO stock, as it continues to make favourable progress from a fundamental perspective both in terms of ramping up volumes, as well as growing market share. Any positive development to ongoing HFCAA negotiations between the U.S. and Chinese regulators, or related efforts by NIO management on resolving the issue, will be catalytic in lifting the NIO stock from its range-bound trading with renewed valuation upsides that can match those of its American peers that exhibit similar fundamental growth profiles.</p><p>While we remain optimistic on further upsides on the NIO stock at current levels, with the near-term price target set at $27 given its resilient business growth prospects, it will ultimately depend on the complete removal of the regulatory risk overhang to restore NIO&#39;s credibility as a viable high growth investment. For now, we continue to caution heightened delisting risks for NIO given its organizational structure&#39;s link to state-backed entities, in addition to broad-based market concerns on the near-term domestic economic slowdown in China, which could introduce further volatility to the NIO stock.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: Delisting, Supply Constraints, And A Faltering Chinese Economy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: Delisting, Supply Constraints, And A Faltering Chinese Economy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-18 14:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4535128-nio-delisting-supply-constraints-and-faltering-chinese-economy?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Atrending_articles%7Cline%3A3><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNIO has been trading range-bound at the $20-level in recent months following a brief surge in easing COVID disruptions in China.While its fundamentals remain resilient, its valuation outlook ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4535128-nio-delisting-supply-constraints-and-faltering-chinese-economy?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Atrending_articles%7Cline%3A3\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","NIO.SI":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4535128-nio-delisting-supply-constraints-and-faltering-chinese-economy?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Atrending_articles%7Cline%3A3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115956301","content_text":"SummaryNIO has been trading range-bound at the $20-level in recent months following a brief surge in easing COVID disruptions in China.While its fundamentals remain resilient, its valuation outlook continues to be constrained by risks pertaining to a potential delisting from the NYSE, ongoing supply constraints, and a slowing Chinese economy.The following analysis will explore the different risks weighing on the \"fundamental\" and \"multiple\" factors that drive NIO's valuation prospects, as well as their related implications.Michael ViThe NIO stock (NYSE:NIO) has been range-bound at the $20-level in recent months after the run-up through June on accelerating production and delivery ramp-up improvements as China's monthslong COVID disruptions to supply chains started to ease. Other positive catalyststhat have supported the stock in its current $20-range after its climb from an all-time low in the $10-range in mid-May include favourable policy support from the central and municipal Chinese governments on shoring up electric vehicle (\"EV\") adoption in the region, as well as NIO's aggressive growth plans such as the upcoming introduction of new sub-brands to better penetrate mass market opportunities.Yet, ongoing weakness in economic sentiment spanning a worsening domestic property slump and slowing consumption in China, as well as the fluid COVID situation remain prominent risks weighing on the NIO stock's near-term performance. The recent slew of voluntary exits from U.S. exchanges by state-backed companies have also renewed concerns of delisting risks stemming from the \"Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act\" (\"HFCAA\") enforced by the U.S. SEC.Heading into NIO's second quarter earnings call, the key focus area beyond its production and delivery ramp-up efforts is where the Chinese EV maker stands when it comes to managing regulatory risks, as well as how it will fare within the increasingly competitive landscape while broader macro uncertainties continue to worsen. On one hand, NIO's progress in ramping up volumes - a key focus area for most automakers within the industry's supply-driven operational environment - will be a core driver of the \"fundamental\" factor weighing on its valuation prospects. Meanwhile, on the other hand, NIO's position amid mounting regulatory risks and broad-based market uncertainties will determine the \"multiple\" factor weighing on its valuation prospects.The following analysis will explore both perspectives and their related implications on the NIO stock's outlook. We continue to caution regulatory risks as the largest factor that has been capping the stock's ability in unlocking its true valuation upsides, despite continued demonstration of resilient fundamentals from the underlying business.2Q22 and July'22 Production and DeliveriesAs previously discussed in our most recent coverage on the stock, NIO's record-setting deliveries during the second quarter, especially in June, continues to underscore its impressive strength in re-ramping productions as the worst of supply and logistics constraints resulting from recent COVID restrictions in core Chinese manufacturing hubs start to ease.Specifically, productions of the newest ET7 sedan, which began in March, was a highlight with 40x growth during the second quarter. Despite a slight setback in July due to limited supply of casting parts used in the production of its ET7 sedans, NIO has maintained momentum in ramping up productions with 2,473 units of the premium electric sedans delivered in the first month of 3Q22. This represents a delivery run-rate of at least 7,400 units of the ET7 in the current quarter (approx. +10% q/q), especially given its ongoing efforts in \"working closely with supply chain partners [to] accelerate vehicle production in the following months of the third quarter of 2022\". The positive results continue to underscore NIO's strength in navigating through unprecedented disruptions from supply chain bottlenecks across the auto industry.Key Focus Areas Weighing on NIO's FundamentalsLooking ahead, NIO is expected to post an even stronger second half of the year, with the introduction of a strong product pipeline that adds the newest ES7 SUV to its sales mix later this month, alongside updated 2022 ES8, ES6 and EC6 SUVs. Favourable policy support in China will also continue to be a boon to NIO's operational performance in the second half of the year.1. Near- to Medium-Term FocusSpecifically, from a fundamental perspective, the key focus area remains on NIO's ability to ramp up productions and deliveries within the supply-driven auto industry as mentioned in the earlier section. The lack of supplies and lingering logistics constraints from pandemic-era disruptions have upended the auto industry over the past year, especially for Chinese OEMs due to the region's strict COVID Zero policy which remain a pronounced downside risk for NIO. This is further corroborated by the Chinese EV maker's struggle with supply shortages in July that have impacted its ET7 sedan and EC6 SUV volumes per its latest delivery update, highlighting how NIO's production and delivery progress have largely been determined by \"supply availability\" over the past year.Investors will remain focused on updates regarding NIO's working relationship with suppliers at the EV maker's upcoming earnings call to gauge whether production can accelerate through the third quarter and the remainder of the year as management had promised. Another key focus area remains on whether any positive progress has been made since NIO's July delivery update press release, which in our view would imply improving fundamentals, lifting the stock from its current range-bound situation.2. Longer-Term FocusOver the longer-term, NIO's progress on growing its market share through globalization, and primarily, domestic expansion with newly planned sub-brands to better penetrate mass market opportunities will be the core piece in bolstering its fundamental performance. China remains the largest EV market, underscoring NIO's growth opportunities ahead as it works to extend its reach beyond the premium market.Specifically, China is expected to sell a new record of at least 6 million EVs by the end of the year, which would be double of the 3 million EVs sold in 2021. In July, China's EV sales represented more than a quarter of total new car registrations, underscoring the rapid rebound in demand following stringent COVID mobility restrictions in the preceding months. This continues to serve favourable tailwinds for domestic EV makers like NIO, which currently represent close to a fifth of China's EV sales, and growing. The statistics also validate current market observations of no material demand destruction observed across the Chinese EV market despite the recent economic slowdown, underscoring the industry's resilience and sustained growth as supply constraints - the primarily roadblock to further expansion - continue to ease.To better penetrate the growing domestic opportunities, NIO has been diversifying its portfolio of premium offerings to address demand across various price and vehicle segments, as observed through its recent introduction of newly designed mid-sized SUVs, as well as premium sedans. More importantly, NIO's upcoming launch of new lower-priced sub-brands focused on the mass market will further its fundamental growth over the longer-term.As discussed in detail in one of our previous coverages, NIO's introduction of a new sub-brand priced in the range of RMB 200,000 ($30,000) to RMB 300,000 ($44,000) will be critical in extending its reach beyond the premium EV market in China:Pertaining to NIO's new mass market brand, which was first mentioned in August 2021, the Chinese EV maker confirmed that it has entered into a \"strategic cooperation agreement with Hefei on the second phase of vehicle production plant and the facilities for key components at NeoPark\" in early May. However, specific details over the product pipeline and related pricing remain uncertain. To date, NIO has only disclosed that the new sub-brand will be a direct competition to Tesla's best-selling Model 3 and Model Y in China, but at a 10% discount in the RMB 200,000 ($30,000) to RMB 300,000 ($44,000) price range.Source: \"EV Roundup: Everything from Tesla to NIO, U.S. to China\"Start of productions and customer deliveries on the sub-brand offerings are expected to begin in the second half of 2024, supported by internally-developed 800-volt battery packs that are expected to launch around the same time. This continues to underscore NIO's strengths in maximizing returns on its investments in building out a vertically integrated business model. We view the internalized production of 800-volt battery packs, which offer better range and faster charge times, as a positive development in reducing reliance from its sole third-party battery supplier CATL amid the increasingly constrained raw material supply chain, while also aiding better cost controls to sustain continued auto margin expansion over the longer-term.In addition to the highly-anticipated sub-brand that NIO first introduced and confirmed in August 2021, there have also recently been reports circulating about NIO's plans on expanding further with a second sub-brand priced in the RMB 100,000 ($15,000) range to better compete against SAIC-GM-Wuling, the best-selling EV brand in China with its low-priced offerings like the \"Hongguang Mini\" (approx. $5,000) and the newest \"Baojun KiWi\" (approx. $11,000). Although this development has yet to be confirmed by NIO management, the materialization of the two sub-brands is expected to improve NIO's overall appeal to the mass market and support its ongoing efforts in penetrating opportunities within China's smaller tier 3 and tier 4 cities like Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang, which are \"generally sensitive to monetary attributes\".Key Focus Areas Weighing on NIO Stock's ValuationsNIO's presence in the SEC's rolling list of delinquent issuers whose auditors are currently non-compliant with PCAOB inspection requests remains the biggest overhang on the stock's valuation from the \"multiple\" perspective.While we have previously pointed to NIO's partial state-ownership (approx. 8%) as a potential shield against ongoing regulatory woes at home experienced by data-heavy tech companies over the past year, the exact same structure might now backfire. The recent slew of voluntary delisting from U.S. exchanges observed across \"China's state-owned enterprises\" are sounding the alarm for a similar fate for NIO, given the partial stake owned by a consortium of municipal government agencies. As mentioned in the earlier section, national security concerns remain the biggest reason in China's pushback against U.S.-mandated PCAOB audit inspections. With NIO being a massive source of data on personal travel patterns across the domestic population, along with a meaningful organizational structural link to state-backed agencies, it could be caught in the ongoing regulatory tug-of-war between the CSRC and U.S. SEC, which remains the primary drag in its valuation discount to peers in the U.S. EV market. Specifically, many foreign investors have already abstained from committing new allocations to Chinese funds over the past 12 months as they remain on the sidelines due to mounting regulatory risks, causing the valuation multiples on Chinese equities to lose their lustre compared to their American counterparts.While NIO's \"homecoming\" listing in Hong Kong and additional listing in Singapore provides partial insulation against delisting risks by offering shareholders from its primary U.S. listing with an option to convert their ADRs for equivalents in the Asian exchanges in the unlikely event of its exit from the NYSE, it will be at a less attractive valuation. This represents another reason why NIO continues to trade at a discounted valuation multiple to its American peers despite having a \"back-up plan\" against U.S. delisting risks. The Asian exchanges are known for their \"less active and liquid markets\" compared to American exchanges - in Hong Kong, turnover in dual-listed stocks is merely half of volumes observed on the American exchanges, with risks of further declines as \"some institutional investors will not trade these stocks anymore\" if the primary U.S. listing is eliminated.Final ThoughtsBased on the foregoing analysis, it is clear as day that regulatory risks remain the largest overhang on the NIO stock, as it continues to make favourable progress from a fundamental perspective both in terms of ramping up volumes, as well as growing market share. Any positive development to ongoing HFCAA negotiations between the U.S. and Chinese regulators, or related efforts by NIO management on resolving the issue, will be catalytic in lifting the NIO stock from its range-bound trading with renewed valuation upsides that can match those of its American peers that exhibit similar fundamental growth profiles.While we remain optimistic on further upsides on the NIO stock at current levels, with the near-term price target set at $27 given its resilient business growth prospects, it will ultimately depend on the complete removal of the regulatory risk overhang to restore NIO's credibility as a viable high growth investment. For now, we continue to caution heightened delisting risks for NIO given its organizational structure's link to state-backed entities, in addition to broad-based market concerns on the near-term domestic economic slowdown in China, which could introduce further volatility to the NIO stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09866":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"NIO.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3038,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9993117091,"gmtCreate":1660645649915,"gmtModify":1676536371184,"author":{"id":"3577450970953718","authorId":"3577450970953718","name":"Minhoshuting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ab92b2914bd064ccd8620ef1d430ff","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577450970953718","idStr":"3577450970953718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9993117091","repostId":"2259889841","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2259889841","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1660643563,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2259889841?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-16 17:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Better Stock-Split Stock to Buy Right Now: Amazon, Shopify, or Tesla?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2259889841","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Among Amazon, Shopify, and Tesla stands one company that's simply never been cheaper and is begging to be bought.","content":"<div>\n<p>Wall Street and the investing community have been taken for a wild ride in 2022. The benchmark S&P 500, which is often Wall Street's favorite barometer of stock market health, turned in its worst ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/16/better-stock-split-stock-buy-amazon-shopify-tesla/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Better Stock-Split Stock to Buy Right Now: Amazon, Shopify, or Tesla?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBetter Stock-Split Stock to Buy Right Now: Amazon, Shopify, or Tesla?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-16 17:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/16/better-stock-split-stock-buy-amazon-shopify-tesla/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Wall Street and the investing community have been taken for a wild ride in 2022. The benchmark S&P 500, which is often Wall Street's favorite barometer of stock market health, turned in its worst ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/16/better-stock-split-stock-buy-amazon-shopify-tesla/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","AMZN":"亚马逊","BK4116":"互联网服务与基础架构","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4538":"云计算","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","SHOP":"Shopify Inc","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/16/better-stock-split-stock-buy-amazon-shopify-tesla/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2259889841","content_text":"Wall Street and the investing community have been taken for a wild ride in 2022. The benchmark S&P 500, which is often Wall Street's favorite barometer of stock market health, turned in its worst first-half return in 52 years. Meanwhile, the technology-dependent Nasdaq Composite has been even worse, with a peak-to-trough decline of as much as 34% since November.But in spite of this turmoil, investors have been absolutely enamored with the dozens of companies announcing stock splits this year.Image source: Getty Images.A stock split allows a publicly traded company to alter its share price and outstanding share count without impacting its market cap or operations. It's the perfect tool for businesses to use to make their shares more affordable for everyday investors who might not otherwise have access to fractional-share purchases through their online brokerages.Thus far in 2022, a number of exceptionally popular, high-profile stocks have announced and/or enacted stock splits. This includes:Amazon (AMZN -0.26%), which declared and enacted a 20-for-1 stock split.Shopify (SHOP -2.26%), which announced and moved forward with a 10-for-1 stock split.Tesla (TSLA 3.10%), which announced a 3-for-1 split in June and gained approval from its shareholders on August 4 to conduct its split on Aug. 25, 2022.The $64,000 question is, \"Which stock-split stock makes for the better buy right now?\"Is Amazon the perfect stock to add to your shopping cart?First up is e-commerce giant Amazon, whose share price fell from a peak of $3,700 pre-split to the $140s on a post-split basis. It was the company's first stock split in more than two decades.When most people hear the word \"Amazon,\" they immediately think of the company's leading online marketplace. This year, Amazon is expected to bring in about $0.40 of every $1 spent in online retail sales in the United States.  But this top-tier revenue segment typically generates low operating margins.The far bigger story for Amazon is what's happening with its higher-margin initiatives, such as subscription services, advertising, and cloud services. For instance, the greater than 200 million people signed up for Prime worldwide bring in tens of billions of dollars in predictable, high-margin revenue for Amazon every year.Amazon Web Services (AWS) should play an even more important role in growing Amazon's operating cash flow in the years that lie ahead. I say \"cash flow\" and not earnings given that Amazon loves to reinvest a significant portion of its operating cash flow into its logistics network and various growth initiatives. With AWS accounting for a third of global cloud-service spending in the first quarter, and this segment providing the bulk of Amazon's operating income, it could send Amazon's share price significantly higher.Should you checkout with Shopify?Another possibility for investors is to put their money to work in cloud-based e-commerce platform Shopify. After peaking at more than $1,700 prior to its split, shares of this beaten-down tech stock can be had for around $40 on a post-split basis.What makes Shopify such an intriguing company from the standpoint of long-term investors is its addressable market. A presentation from 2021 estimated that Shopify's e-commerce platform has a $153 billion addressable market just from small businesses (i.e., it's bread-and-butter target). This doesn't even take into account the larger businesses that have begun utilizing Shopify's tools and data analytics. With Shopify on pace to bring in over $7 billion in revenue this year, the implication is that growth is still in the very early innings.Innovation is another tool that should excite investors. Last year, Shopify launched Shop Pay, its very own buy now, pay later (BNPL) service designed to give merchants and their consumers more payment options. Although BNPL operators have been hammered recently by domestic and global economic weakness, it should ultimately be a positive for Shopify's vast network of merchants over the long run.Shopify is using bolt-on acquisitions to its advantage, too. Last month, it completed the $2.1 billion cash-and-stock buyout of e-commerce fulfillment company Deliverr.  Buying Deliverr further compliments Shopify's Fulfillment Network and should give merchants more peace of mind when managing their inventory and direct-to-consumer sales.Can investors burn rubber with Tesla?The third potential stock-split stock to buy is electric-vehicle (EV) manufacturer Tesla. The company's upcoming split will mark its second in two years.The reason investors gravitate to Tesla is because of the company's competitive advantages. It's the first automaker to build itself from the ground up to mass production in more than five decades. Even with semiconductor chip shortages hurting production, and the company's Shanghai gigafactory being adversely impacted by COVID-19 lockdowns, Tesla looks to be well on its way to surpassing 1 million EV deliveries in a year for the first time.In addition to production, Tesla has turned the corner to recurring profitability. Whereas the company had relied heavily on selling renewable energy credits (RECs) to other automakers prior to 2020, it's been generating generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) profits without the need for RECs to push it to a sizable profit. In each of the past five quarters, Tesla has delivered a GAAP profit ranging from $1.14 billion to $3.32 billion.Tesla's success is also a reflection of investors' belief in CEO Elon Musk as an innovator. As CEO, Musk has helped diversify his company's operations -- e.g., Tesla provides energy storage systems and installs solar panels via subsidiaries -- and has kept the company's user base excited about upcoming innovations, such as Tesla Bot, a robotic humanoid that could serve a variety of purposes.Image source: Getty Images.The better stock-split stock to buy right now is...Ultimately, Amazon, Shopify, and Tesla wouldn't have announced stock splits if their respective share prices hadn't significantly risen following great execution. But only one of these three stock-split stocks stands out as the clear better buy right now.In my view, it's certainly not Tesla. The biggest issue with Tesla just might be Elon Musk. Aside from drawing the ire of the Securities and Exchange Commission on multiple occasions, Musk has continually overpromised and underdelivered as CEO. While the company's share price would say others, we've seen delays to practically every major project or innovation proposed by Musk, including robotaxis and the Cybertruck, among others.Tesla is also quite expensive. Whereas most auto stocks trade at single-digit forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, Tesla will have investors paying about 54 times Wall Street's forecast earnings in 2023 for a company that'll likely see its competitive advantages wane over time.Despite it being a popular buy right now, I don't believe Shopify is the answer, either. This is a retail-driven company that's susceptible to slower growth from rapidly rising interest rates and contracting U.S. gross domestic product. While there's no question Shopify has a delectably large addressable market, the company has a lot of work to do on its bottom-line to attract long-term investors.The stock-split stock that's the absolute best buy of the three right now is Amazon.Although its P/E ratio is an eye-popper for all the wrong reasons, the P/E ratio is a poor way to measure value with Amazon. As noted, because Amazon reinvests most of its operating cash flow back into its business, price-to-cash-flow is a far better measure of value.Between 2010 and 2019, investors paid a year-end multiple of 23 to 37 times year-end cash flow. Based on Wall Street's 2025 forecast, which takes into account AWS growing into a larger percentage of total sales, Amazon is valued at just 10 times cash flow. If Amazon hits this estimate, it would be the cheapest shares have ever been. Valuation and innovation give Amazon the clear edge over Shopify and Tesla right now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1,"SHOP":1,"AMZN":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3431,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9999444694,"gmtCreate":1660576628721,"gmtModify":1676535711794,"author":{"id":"3577450970953718","authorId":"3577450970953718","name":"Minhoshuting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ab92b2914bd064ccd8620ef1d430ff","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577450970953718","idStr":"3577450970953718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ooo","listText":"Ooo","text":"Ooo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9999444694","repostId":"2259049047","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2259049047","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1660572768,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2259049047?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-15 22:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Disney Has a Long Way to Go to Catch Up to Netflix","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2259049047","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Disney may have overtaken Netflix in terms of total premium streaming subscribers, but it's lagging in just about every category that truly matters.","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSDisney closed out its fiscal third quarter with 221.1 million subscribers, surpassing Netflix at 220.7 million paid streaming members.Disney's streaming segment grew twice as fast as Netflix...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/15/disney-has-a-long-way-to-go-to-catch-up-to-netflix/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Disney Has a Long Way to Go to Catch Up to Netflix</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDisney Has a Long Way to Go to Catch Up to Netflix\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-15 22:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/15/disney-has-a-long-way-to-go-to-catch-up-to-netflix/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSDisney closed out its fiscal third quarter with 221.1 million subscribers, surpassing Netflix at 220.7 million paid streaming members.Disney's streaming segment grew twice as fast as Netflix...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/15/disney-has-a-long-way-to-go-to-catch-up-to-netflix/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","DIS":"迪士尼","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4566":"资本集团","NFLX":"奈飞","BK4108":"电影和娱乐","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/15/disney-has-a-long-way-to-go-to-catch-up-to-netflix/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2259049047","content_text":"KEY POINTSDisney closed out its fiscal third quarter with 221.1 million subscribers, surpassing Netflix at 220.7 million paid streaming members.Disney's streaming segment grew twice as fast as Netflix over the past year, but it's still well behind in revenue, operating profit, and other important categories.Netflix has been slipping lately, but Disney could face growing pains as it jacks up its plan prices between now and the end of this year.There were a lot of juicy takeaways following Disney's blowout quarterly report last week, but there's one deceptive metric echoing in the world of streaming media stocks. Did Disney really overtake Netflix in the subscriber race between premium on-demand video platforms?It may seem that way at first glance. Disney's three owned or majority-owned premium offerings combined for 221.1 million subscribers at the end of June. Netflix dipped sequentially during the three-month period, retreating to 220.7 million members worldwide at the midpoint of 2022. They may be passing ships right now, but there's more to this important milestone than you probably think.Image source: Getty Images.Netflix and shillWhere were you the moment that Disney passed Netflix in terms of raw subscriber counts? Wednesday afternoon was important as a plot point, but it wasn't exactly a plot twist. We need to frame things properly before handing Mickey Mouse the keys to the kingdom. For starters, Disney+ didn't flash its high beams, zoom past Netflix, and see the streaming pioneer shrink in the rearview mirror.Disney's flagship service accounts for 152.1 million of the media giant's total streaming accounts. It's a ridiculously impressive feat for a platform that wasn't even around three years ago, but it's not up to Netflix's haul over the years. The numbers include 22.8 million on ESPN+ and another 46.2 million on Hulu, two longer-running offerings that Disney does not fully own but does have a controlling stake in.It's also important to point out that Disney's been aggressively pushing its bundle that offers all three services at a discounted price. There may be a small number of Netflix users with more than one account, but there's a lot of overlap with Disney's 220.7 million, where every bundle customer counts as three different subscribers.Let's also talk about revenue. The most popular midtier plan at Netflix costs $15.49 a month. Disney+ right now goes for a little more than half that at a monthly rate of $7.99. It doesn't end there. More than a third of of those subscribers are in India, paying a monthly average of $1.20 a month for Disney+ Hotstar, a platform that the House of Mouse acquired three years ago. Back that out and the average subscriber is paying $6.29 a month, less than $7.99 since the service offers discounted annual plans and some members are still taking advantage of a three-year pre-paid plan at a deeply discounted rate that was available at the platform's launch in November 2019. Throw Disney+ Hotstar back into the mix, and the average monthly revenue that Disney is collecting from its 152.1 million users is just $4.35.ESPN+ is setting viewers back an average of $4.55 a month despite its current monthly rate of $6.99 that will bump up to $9.99 next week. Hulu costs more -- and the 4 million cord-cutters on Hulu + Live TV are shelling out a lot more -- but it all adds up to nearly $5.1 billion in revenue for all services combined, an impressive 19% year-over-year increase on the top line.In the other corner, we have Netflix with a commanding $8 billion in revenue for the same three-month period, as well as a more modest 9% increase when pitted against last year's second quarter. Disney also isn't even close as we work our way down the income statement. Disney doesn't expect to turn a profit with its direct-to-consumer business until fiscal 2024, clocking in with a nearly $1.1 billion operating loss for the segment. Netflix reported a $1.6 billion operating profit.Is the torch, relay race baton, or crown really going from Netflix to Disney? Momentum is going in that direction, but these ships haven't passed each other just yet. Disney is in the process of dramatically increasing its cover charges. It's not just ESPN+ going up. There will be churn from folks flinching at the 38% increase for ad-free Disney+. There should also be some turnover in November when the folks that pre-paid for three years of Disney+ have to renew at roughly three times what they paid in late 2019. There's no denying that Disney has become a major player in the streaming space, and a hearty chunk of that growth has been organic. However, in just about every way -- revenue, operating profit, customer engagement, and the actual number of unique subscribers -- Netflix is still the lion king of the hill.Better luck next quarter, Mufasa.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":1,"DIS":1,"QNETCN":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9999444151,"gmtCreate":1660576596976,"gmtModify":1676535709060,"author":{"id":"3577450970953718","authorId":"3577450970953718","name":"Minhoshuting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ab92b2914bd064ccd8620ef1d430ff","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577450970953718","idStr":"3577450970953718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"gogo","listText":"gogo","text":"gogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9999444151","repostId":"2259049047","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2259049047","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1660572768,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2259049047?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-15 22:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Disney Has a Long Way to Go to Catch Up to Netflix","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2259049047","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Disney may have overtaken Netflix in terms of total premium streaming subscribers, but it's lagging in just about every category that truly matters.","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSDisney closed out its fiscal third quarter with 221.1 million subscribers, surpassing Netflix at 220.7 million paid streaming members.Disney's streaming segment grew twice as fast as Netflix...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/15/disney-has-a-long-way-to-go-to-catch-up-to-netflix/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Disney Has a Long Way to Go to Catch Up to Netflix</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDisney Has a Long Way to Go to Catch Up to Netflix\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-15 22:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/15/disney-has-a-long-way-to-go-to-catch-up-to-netflix/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSDisney closed out its fiscal third quarter with 221.1 million subscribers, surpassing Netflix at 220.7 million paid streaming members.Disney's streaming segment grew twice as fast as Netflix...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/15/disney-has-a-long-way-to-go-to-catch-up-to-netflix/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","DIS":"迪士尼","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4566":"资本集团","NFLX":"奈飞","BK4108":"电影和娱乐","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/15/disney-has-a-long-way-to-go-to-catch-up-to-netflix/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2259049047","content_text":"KEY POINTSDisney closed out its fiscal third quarter with 221.1 million subscribers, surpassing Netflix at 220.7 million paid streaming members.Disney's streaming segment grew twice as fast as Netflix over the past year, but it's still well behind in revenue, operating profit, and other important categories.Netflix has been slipping lately, but Disney could face growing pains as it jacks up its plan prices between now and the end of this year.There were a lot of juicy takeaways following Disney's blowout quarterly report last week, but there's one deceptive metric echoing in the world of streaming media stocks. Did Disney really overtake Netflix in the subscriber race between premium on-demand video platforms?It may seem that way at first glance. Disney's three owned or majority-owned premium offerings combined for 221.1 million subscribers at the end of June. Netflix dipped sequentially during the three-month period, retreating to 220.7 million members worldwide at the midpoint of 2022. They may be passing ships right now, but there's more to this important milestone than you probably think.Image source: Getty Images.Netflix and shillWhere were you the moment that Disney passed Netflix in terms of raw subscriber counts? Wednesday afternoon was important as a plot point, but it wasn't exactly a plot twist. We need to frame things properly before handing Mickey Mouse the keys to the kingdom. For starters, Disney+ didn't flash its high beams, zoom past Netflix, and see the streaming pioneer shrink in the rearview mirror.Disney's flagship service accounts for 152.1 million of the media giant's total streaming accounts. It's a ridiculously impressive feat for a platform that wasn't even around three years ago, but it's not up to Netflix's haul over the years. The numbers include 22.8 million on ESPN+ and another 46.2 million on Hulu, two longer-running offerings that Disney does not fully own but does have a controlling stake in.It's also important to point out that Disney's been aggressively pushing its bundle that offers all three services at a discounted price. There may be a small number of Netflix users with more than one account, but there's a lot of overlap with Disney's 220.7 million, where every bundle customer counts as three different subscribers.Let's also talk about revenue. The most popular midtier plan at Netflix costs $15.49 a month. Disney+ right now goes for a little more than half that at a monthly rate of $7.99. It doesn't end there. More than a third of of those subscribers are in India, paying a monthly average of $1.20 a month for Disney+ Hotstar, a platform that the House of Mouse acquired three years ago. Back that out and the average subscriber is paying $6.29 a month, less than $7.99 since the service offers discounted annual plans and some members are still taking advantage of a three-year pre-paid plan at a deeply discounted rate that was available at the platform's launch in November 2019. Throw Disney+ Hotstar back into the mix, and the average monthly revenue that Disney is collecting from its 152.1 million users is just $4.35.ESPN+ is setting viewers back an average of $4.55 a month despite its current monthly rate of $6.99 that will bump up to $9.99 next week. Hulu costs more -- and the 4 million cord-cutters on Hulu + Live TV are shelling out a lot more -- but it all adds up to nearly $5.1 billion in revenue for all services combined, an impressive 19% year-over-year increase on the top line.In the other corner, we have Netflix with a commanding $8 billion in revenue for the same three-month period, as well as a more modest 9% increase when pitted against last year's second quarter. Disney also isn't even close as we work our way down the income statement. Disney doesn't expect to turn a profit with its direct-to-consumer business until fiscal 2024, clocking in with a nearly $1.1 billion operating loss for the segment. Netflix reported a $1.6 billion operating profit.Is the torch, relay race baton, or crown really going from Netflix to Disney? Momentum is going in that direction, but these ships haven't passed each other just yet. Disney is in the process of dramatically increasing its cover charges. It's not just ESPN+ going up. There will be churn from folks flinching at the 38% increase for ad-free Disney+. There should also be some turnover in November when the folks that pre-paid for three years of Disney+ have to renew at roughly three times what they paid in late 2019. There's no denying that Disney has become a major player in the streaming space, and a hearty chunk of that growth has been organic. However, in just about every way -- revenue, operating profit, customer engagement, and the actual number of unique subscribers -- Netflix is still the lion king of the hill.Better luck next quarter, Mufasa.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":1,"DIS":1,"QNETCN":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1278,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9999397838,"gmtCreate":1660460452526,"gmtModify":1676533475598,"author":{"id":"3577450970953718","authorId":"3577450970953718","name":"Minhoshuting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ab92b2914bd064ccd8620ef1d430ff","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577450970953718","idStr":"3577450970953718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9999397838","repostId":"1110057750","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":597,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9990176524,"gmtCreate":1660316411169,"gmtModify":1676533450026,"author":{"id":"3577450970953718","authorId":"3577450970953718","name":"Minhoshuting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ab92b2914bd064ccd8620ef1d430ff","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577450970953718","idStr":"3577450970953718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go","listText":"Go","text":"Go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9990176524","repostId":"1163130137","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163130137","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1660318020,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163130137?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-12 23:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO: A Simple Reality Check","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163130137","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNIO enjoys several strategic advantages in the long-term, including Beijing’s recent announcement to support EV adaption and its leading scale domestically.In the near term, the business has ju","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>NIO enjoys several strategic advantages in the long-term, including Beijing’s recent announcement to support EV adaption and its leading scale domestically.</li><li>In the near term, the business has just posted 27% YoY delivery growth in July and passed the 10k monthly delivery mark.</li><li>Its rapid growth in revenues and deliveries has not translated into healthy profits.</li><li>As a result, I still cannot see a strong case for shareholder returns in the near future.</li></ul><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p>NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) has been reporting mixed news to shareholders lately. On the positive side, NIO delivered a total of 10.05k cars in July, a 60% growth YoY. And this also exceeded the 10k monthly. Furthermore, the company also recently started selling its ES8 model overseas (in Norway). Although its sales are still predominately in China, this also marks the beginning of its attempts to break into the global market. On the negative side, the COVID situation in China remains fluid, competition is intensifying, and NIO has yet to translate its growth in profit.</p><p>Overall, I am seeing more negatives than positives, as reflected in its stock prices as you can see from the chart below. NIO share prices have declined more than 37% YTD, lagging both its domestic peers and global peers by a large margin. For example, the share prices of Li Auto (LI) only lost about 2%, and Tesla (TSLA) about 17%. More tellingly, even the recent announcement from Beijing to extend the tax credit to support EV adaption could not lift its stock prices.</p><p>Next, we will dive into the good, bad, and ugly in more detail.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20a8948ae6a4e8dc5e7836faf0cc08d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><b>The good, the bad, and the ugly</b></p><p>On the positive side, growth remains robust. After the China-locked alleviated, NIO quickly ramped up its productions and deliveries as you can see from the following chart. In particular, it delivered 10,052 vehicles in July 2022. Do not be under-impressed by the comparison again in June. June sets a tough comp. It delivered 12.9k vehicles during June and set an all-time monthly record. The July delivery still represented a robust 27% growth YoY. The production data also show that the company has the capability to reliably produce and deliver 10k cars per month assuming normal operation conditions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1bb8113610f2c1ce680c20776c48340\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: insideevs.com</p><p>Moreover, the company is also expanding aggressively on other fronts. It started selling cars in Norway in later 2021, marking the beginning of its attempts for overseas expansion. It also aggressively invests in its future models and infrastructure. It expects to launch the ET5 mid-size electric sedan in Q3 2022. It has also just reported in July that its battery swap stations have reached 1,047 and logged in over 10 million times usage cumulatively.</p><p>All such rapid expansion has resulted in impressive revenue growth as you can see from the chart below. Quarterly revenues grew from below $400M in 2020 to the current level of over $1.5B. And the YoY growth rates have been consistently in the double-digits.</p><p>However, the business is yet to translate its rapid expansion into profits, as we will detail next.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6ba187aec27b216e307b6d15d6e8993\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><b>Cash flow and capital allocation issues</b></p><p>As you can see from the bottom panel of the above chart, NIO&#39;s cash flow has been largely negative over the past few years. It has been bleeding more than $1 billion of cash on a quarterly basis during 2019-2020. And only in recent quarters since 2021, its cash flow has turned positive. It is currently reporting a small positive operating cash flow of $51 million. It&#39;s a positive sign, but the magnitude is just too small compared to the scale of the business.</p><p>As a result, NIO has been consistently (and quite aggressively in my view) issuing new equity and debt to finance its expansion. As you can see from the top panel of the following chart, its diluted shares expanded by more than 60% since 2020, from about 1 billion outstanding shares to the current level of more than 1.6 billion shares. Total long-term liabilities have swollen substantially also at the same time. Its debt burden was the lightest during 2018 when its total long-term liabilities were only about $400M. And currently, it stands at $2.8 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e653b3d62ae0346bf6b1525034b458ea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><b>A reality check</b></p><p>Ultimately, shareholder return cannot come from growth alone. It will have to come from the growth of PROFIT. Let&#39;s consider a very simple analysis that I call a reality check as shown in the chart below (for readers who like to read the specific numbers, the table behind the chart provides the same information).</p><p>The calculation projects the number of many years of sustained growth required to realize a 10% annualized ROI on investments at the current entry valuation (about 100x price to cash flow multiple taken from Seeking Alpha). The calculations were performed for two terminal multiples: 20x and 15x price to cash flow ratio. As seen, if the terminal valuation is 20x (still a sizeable premium relative to the overall market), it would take about 9 years of sustained growth at 20% CAGR to materialize a 10% annualized ROI. Even at a 40% CAGR, it will take about 5 years.</p><p>To me, this is just too long, and remember that time compounds uncertainties.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e761036a137dcbec5ec8077e1c82609\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Author</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdc78b171fe49f1eee2b82b528ce04ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Author</p><p><b>Final thoughts and risks</b></p><p>Finally, I also feel the above reality check has already been a bit too optimistic. For example, it assumes no further issuance of new equity, and the share counts remain fixed at their current level. But I feel NIO&#39;s share counts would be very likely to be further diluted. And even worse, the dilution could happen during times of compressed stock prices like what we are experiencing now and could be very detrimental to shareholders (at least to existing shareholders).</p><p>Besides the cash and profit issues, there are a few other risks. In the near term, the COVID situation in China remains fluid and a resurgence could happen again, triggering another wave of lockdowns. Competition is also intensifying both domestically and internationally. Both XPeng and Li Auto have posted stronger growth rates in recent months. And both are also entering the EV SUV market to compete with NIO.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: A Simple Reality Check</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: A Simple Reality Check\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-12 23:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4533002-nio-a-simple-reality-check><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNIO enjoys several strategic advantages in the long-term, including Beijing’s recent announcement to support EV adaption and its leading scale domestically.In the near term, the business has ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4533002-nio-a-simple-reality-check\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","NIO.SI":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4533002-nio-a-simple-reality-check","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163130137","content_text":"SummaryNIO enjoys several strategic advantages in the long-term, including Beijing’s recent announcement to support EV adaption and its leading scale domestically.In the near term, the business has just posted 27% YoY delivery growth in July and passed the 10k monthly delivery mark.Its rapid growth in revenues and deliveries has not translated into healthy profits.As a result, I still cannot see a strong case for shareholder returns in the near future.ThesisNIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) has been reporting mixed news to shareholders lately. On the positive side, NIO delivered a total of 10.05k cars in July, a 60% growth YoY. And this also exceeded the 10k monthly. Furthermore, the company also recently started selling its ES8 model overseas (in Norway). Although its sales are still predominately in China, this also marks the beginning of its attempts to break into the global market. On the negative side, the COVID situation in China remains fluid, competition is intensifying, and NIO has yet to translate its growth in profit.Overall, I am seeing more negatives than positives, as reflected in its stock prices as you can see from the chart below. NIO share prices have declined more than 37% YTD, lagging both its domestic peers and global peers by a large margin. For example, the share prices of Li Auto (LI) only lost about 2%, and Tesla (TSLA) about 17%. More tellingly, even the recent announcement from Beijing to extend the tax credit to support EV adaption could not lift its stock prices.Next, we will dive into the good, bad, and ugly in more detail.Seeking AlphaThe good, the bad, and the uglyOn the positive side, growth remains robust. After the China-locked alleviated, NIO quickly ramped up its productions and deliveries as you can see from the following chart. In particular, it delivered 10,052 vehicles in July 2022. Do not be under-impressed by the comparison again in June. June sets a tough comp. It delivered 12.9k vehicles during June and set an all-time monthly record. The July delivery still represented a robust 27% growth YoY. The production data also show that the company has the capability to reliably produce and deliver 10k cars per month assuming normal operation conditions.Source: insideevs.comMoreover, the company is also expanding aggressively on other fronts. It started selling cars in Norway in later 2021, marking the beginning of its attempts for overseas expansion. It also aggressively invests in its future models and infrastructure. It expects to launch the ET5 mid-size electric sedan in Q3 2022. It has also just reported in July that its battery swap stations have reached 1,047 and logged in over 10 million times usage cumulatively.All such rapid expansion has resulted in impressive revenue growth as you can see from the chart below. Quarterly revenues grew from below $400M in 2020 to the current level of over $1.5B. And the YoY growth rates have been consistently in the double-digits.However, the business is yet to translate its rapid expansion into profits, as we will detail next.Seeking AlphaCash flow and capital allocation issuesAs you can see from the bottom panel of the above chart, NIO's cash flow has been largely negative over the past few years. It has been bleeding more than $1 billion of cash on a quarterly basis during 2019-2020. And only in recent quarters since 2021, its cash flow has turned positive. It is currently reporting a small positive operating cash flow of $51 million. It's a positive sign, but the magnitude is just too small compared to the scale of the business.As a result, NIO has been consistently (and quite aggressively in my view) issuing new equity and debt to finance its expansion. As you can see from the top panel of the following chart, its diluted shares expanded by more than 60% since 2020, from about 1 billion outstanding shares to the current level of more than 1.6 billion shares. Total long-term liabilities have swollen substantially also at the same time. Its debt burden was the lightest during 2018 when its total long-term liabilities were only about $400M. And currently, it stands at $2.8 billion.Seeking AlphaA reality checkUltimately, shareholder return cannot come from growth alone. It will have to come from the growth of PROFIT. Let's consider a very simple analysis that I call a reality check as shown in the chart below (for readers who like to read the specific numbers, the table behind the chart provides the same information).The calculation projects the number of many years of sustained growth required to realize a 10% annualized ROI on investments at the current entry valuation (about 100x price to cash flow multiple taken from Seeking Alpha). The calculations were performed for two terminal multiples: 20x and 15x price to cash flow ratio. As seen, if the terminal valuation is 20x (still a sizeable premium relative to the overall market), it would take about 9 years of sustained growth at 20% CAGR to materialize a 10% annualized ROI. Even at a 40% CAGR, it will take about 5 years.To me, this is just too long, and remember that time compounds uncertainties.AuthorAuthorFinal thoughts and risksFinally, I also feel the above reality check has already been a bit too optimistic. For example, it assumes no further issuance of new equity, and the share counts remain fixed at their current level. But I feel NIO's share counts would be very likely to be further diluted. And even worse, the dilution could happen during times of compressed stock prices like what we are experiencing now and could be very detrimental to shareholders (at least to existing shareholders).Besides the cash and profit issues, there are a few other risks. In the near term, the COVID situation in China remains fluid and a resurgence could happen again, triggering another wave of lockdowns. Competition is also intensifying both domestically and internationally. Both XPeng and Li Auto have posted stronger growth rates in recent months. And both are also entering the EV SUV market to compete with NIO.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO.SI":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"09866":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9904241071,"gmtCreate":1660059075996,"gmtModify":1703477432480,"author":{"id":"3577450970953718","authorId":"3577450970953718","name":"Minhoshuting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ab92b2914bd064ccd8620ef1d430ff","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577450970953718","idStr":"3577450970953718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Int&nbsp;","listText":"Int&nbsp;","text":"Int","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9904241071","repostId":"1120383278","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1120383278","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659748048,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120383278?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-06 09:07","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Check Out What Whales Are Doing With NIO","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120383278","media":"Benzinga","summary":"A whale with a lot of money to spend has taken a noticeably bullish stance on NIO.Looking at options","content":"<div>\n<p>A whale with a lot of money to spend has taken a noticeably bullish stance on NIO.Looking at options history for NIONIOwe detected 24 strange trades.If we consider the specifics of each trade, it is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/options/22/08/28381384/check-out-what-whales-are-doing-with-nio\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Check Out What Whales Are Doing With NIO</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCheck Out What Whales Are Doing With NIO\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-06 09:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/markets/options/22/08/28381384/check-out-what-whales-are-doing-with-nio><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A whale with a lot of money to spend has taken a noticeably bullish stance on NIO.Looking at options history for NIONIOwe detected 24 strange trades.If we consider the specifics of each trade, it is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/options/22/08/28381384/check-out-what-whales-are-doing-with-nio\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO.SI":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/options/22/08/28381384/check-out-what-whales-are-doing-with-nio","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120383278","content_text":"A whale with a lot of money to spend has taken a noticeably bullish stance on NIO.Looking at options history for NIONIOwe detected 24 strange trades.If we consider the specifics of each trade, it is accurate to state that 58% of the investors opened trades with bullish expectations and 41% with bearish.From the overall spotted trades, 10 are puts, for a total amount of $455,988 and 14, calls, for a total amount of $589,128.What's The Price Target?Taking into account the Volume and Open Interest on these contracts, it appears that whales have been targeting a price range from $20.0 to $60.0 for NIO over the last 3 months.Volume & Open Interest DevelopmentLooking at the volume and open interest is a powerful move while trading options. This data can help you track the liquidity and interest for NIO's options for a given strike price. Below, we can observe the evolution of the volume and open interest of calls and puts, respectively, for all of NIO's whale trades within a strike price range from $20.0 to $60.0 in the last 30 days.NIO Option Volume And Open Interest Over Last 30 DaysBiggest Options Spotted:SymbolPUT/CALLTrade TypeSentimentExp. DateStrike PriceTotal Trade PriceOpen InterestVolumeNIOCALLSWEEPBULLISH01/20/23$20.00$77.4K22.4K332NIOPUTTRADEBEARISH12/16/22$55.00$70.0K8520NIOPUTTRADEBEARISH12/16/22$55.00$69.9K8540NIOPUTSWEEPBEARISH08/19/22$21.00$66.8K5.7K615NIOCALLSWEEPBULLISH08/19/22$20.00$59.0K21.4K3.0KWhere Is NIO Standing Right Now?With a volume of 29,296,686, the price of NIO is down -3.92% at $20.08.RSI indicators hint that the underlying stock may be approaching oversold.Next earnings are expected to be released in 14 days.Options are a riskier asset compared to just trading the stock, but they have higher profit potential. Serious options traders manage this risk by educating themselves daily, scaling in and out of trades, following more than one indicator, and following the markets closely.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"09866":0.9,"NIO.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":806,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9904985909,"gmtCreate":1659974505904,"gmtModify":1703476550006,"author":{"id":"3577450970953718","authorId":"3577450970953718","name":"Minhoshuting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ab92b2914bd064ccd8620ef1d430ff","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577450970953718","idStr":"3577450970953718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok&nbsp;","listText":"Ok&nbsp;","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9904985909","repostId":"1111364601","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111364601","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659972720,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1111364601?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-08 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 May Be Near The Most Dangerous Phase Of The Bear Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111364601","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe bear market of 2022 has eerily similar characteristics of bear markets of the past.The 20","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The bear market of 2022 has eerily similar characteristics of bear markets of the past.</li><li>The 2022 bear market looks very similar to those in 1937, 2000, and 2008.</li><li>If the bear markets are similar, the 2022 version is nearing its most dangerous phase.</li></ul><p>History can act as a guide, not because it can predict the future, but because sometimes it can prepare us for what may happen next. Investing is very much about understanding the fundamentals and the technical trends. But the element that is lost most times is emotion, and it is the emotion of how people respond to news or events that seem to endure, shaping history.</p><p>Similarities in today&#39;s stock market and S&amp;P 500 (SP500) echo the great bear markets of the past. The 2022 S&amp;P 500 path has followed the paths of 1936, 2000, and 2008 cycles. It isn&#39;t to say that future is on a predetermined course; it is not. But it can give us a glimpse into what may happen next based on how bear markets and emotions have steered past performance.</p><p><b>1937</b></p><p>After rallying from March 1935 to March 1937, the S&amp;P 500 dropped sharply until the summer of 1937, by nearly 19%. That was when the index saw a solid summer rally, which lifted the S&amp;P 500 more than 14% off its lows, peaking around August 20, 1937. Following that summer rally, the market fell sharply, nearly 70% between September 1937 and April 1938.</p><p>Using a 31,065-day offset to overlay the S&amp;P 500 of today versus that bear market, we can see the S&amp;P 500 of today has plotted a very similar course to that of 1937. It would suggest that the S&amp;P 500 of today is likely to be hitting an inflection point in the next couple of weeks. It could result in the recent 2022 rally continuing, the comparison with 1937 no longer working, or the S&amp;P 500 of 2022 turning sharply lower as the market did in 1937.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf9e75e86ede6d5127a530f868dcedf3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p><b>2000</b></p><p>The bear market that started in the year 2000 also shares many of the same properties as the S&amp;P 500 of today. In this case, using a 7874-day offset, the two charts will line up. Following the 1998 sell-off, the S&amp;P 500 rallied sharply until 2000. The S&amp;P 500 of 2000 was more resilient at first, retesting its March 2000 highs again in September 2000. After that, the index saw a pronounced sell-off, followed by a January 2001 rally. That January 2001 rally marked the final rebound, followed by a nearly 20% decline into April 2001.</p><p>Again, the market of today is at the same point in time. Therefore, if the S&amp;P 500 is going to turn lower and follow the path of 2000, that sharp decline could happen over the next couple of weeks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c67e3a7716980557c4c7d467f03d1b40\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p><b>2008</b></p><p>Finally, the bear market of 2008 seems to match the S&amp;P 500 of 2022 the most closely. A 5,218-day offset lines the double bottom in the fall of 2020 up with the double bottom in the spring of 2006. Like the two previous bear market examples, after peaking in October 2007, the S&amp;P 500 went lower on a slow and steady decline of nearly 19%. That was followed by a rally in the spring of 2008, which led to a gain of almost 12%. Of course, after that rally, the S&amp;P 500 again found itself turning lower, erasing the spring gains.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d85ceaf1cd7900663bbf9dbbe300dee\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p><b>Similarities</b></p><p>The declines may differ in each of these cases, but it isn&#39;t the reason that matters. It is the patterns the market followed that matter. When overlaying 1937, 2000, and 2008 all together on one chart, they show that the bull rally phases had nearly the same duration, with all peaking within a 6-month time frame, followed by a sharp decline, a very sharp countertrend rally followed by a significantly steeper decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c254a06087baa45767c1b5a5d0c6aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Does this mean the market of 2022 has to follow the same path? No, of course, it does not. But if this is a bear market we are in, and the pattern continues, the market may be entering the most dangerous part of the bear market. The part where a powerful rally catches everyone off guard and is followed by a sharp and sudden decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34566ce27f9a5b7d5ac6c173ee363be9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>What happens next for stocks is anyone&#39;s guess, and these charts do not tell us what that outcome will be. But the power of history and human emotion tells us what <i>may</i> happen next, and in this case, the answer may be staring us right in the face for all to see.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 May Be Near The Most Dangerous Phase Of The Bear Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 May Be Near The Most Dangerous Phase Of The Bear Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-08 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4531046-sp-500-near-most-dangerous-phase-of-bear-market><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe bear market of 2022 has eerily similar characteristics of bear markets of the past.The 2022 bear market looks very similar to those in 1937, 2000, and 2008.If the bear markets are similar, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4531046-sp-500-near-most-dangerous-phase-of-bear-market\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4531046-sp-500-near-most-dangerous-phase-of-bear-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111364601","content_text":"SummaryThe bear market of 2022 has eerily similar characteristics of bear markets of the past.The 2022 bear market looks very similar to those in 1937, 2000, and 2008.If the bear markets are similar, the 2022 version is nearing its most dangerous phase.History can act as a guide, not because it can predict the future, but because sometimes it can prepare us for what may happen next. Investing is very much about understanding the fundamentals and the technical trends. But the element that is lost most times is emotion, and it is the emotion of how people respond to news or events that seem to endure, shaping history.Similarities in today's stock market and S&P 500 (SP500) echo the great bear markets of the past. The 2022 S&P 500 path has followed the paths of 1936, 2000, and 2008 cycles. It isn't to say that future is on a predetermined course; it is not. But it can give us a glimpse into what may happen next based on how bear markets and emotions have steered past performance.1937After rallying from March 1935 to March 1937, the S&P 500 dropped sharply until the summer of 1937, by nearly 19%. That was when the index saw a solid summer rally, which lifted the S&P 500 more than 14% off its lows, peaking around August 20, 1937. Following that summer rally, the market fell sharply, nearly 70% between September 1937 and April 1938.Using a 31,065-day offset to overlay the S&P 500 of today versus that bear market, we can see the S&P 500 of today has plotted a very similar course to that of 1937. It would suggest that the S&P 500 of today is likely to be hitting an inflection point in the next couple of weeks. It could result in the recent 2022 rally continuing, the comparison with 1937 no longer working, or the S&P 500 of 2022 turning sharply lower as the market did in 1937.Bloomberg2000The bear market that started in the year 2000 also shares many of the same properties as the S&P 500 of today. In this case, using a 7874-day offset, the two charts will line up. Following the 1998 sell-off, the S&P 500 rallied sharply until 2000. The S&P 500 of 2000 was more resilient at first, retesting its March 2000 highs again in September 2000. After that, the index saw a pronounced sell-off, followed by a January 2001 rally. That January 2001 rally marked the final rebound, followed by a nearly 20% decline into April 2001.Again, the market of today is at the same point in time. Therefore, if the S&P 500 is going to turn lower and follow the path of 2000, that sharp decline could happen over the next couple of weeks.Bloomberg2008Finally, the bear market of 2008 seems to match the S&P 500 of 2022 the most closely. A 5,218-day offset lines the double bottom in the fall of 2020 up with the double bottom in the spring of 2006. Like the two previous bear market examples, after peaking in October 2007, the S&P 500 went lower on a slow and steady decline of nearly 19%. That was followed by a rally in the spring of 2008, which led to a gain of almost 12%. Of course, after that rally, the S&P 500 again found itself turning lower, erasing the spring gains.BloombergSimilaritiesThe declines may differ in each of these cases, but it isn't the reason that matters. It is the patterns the market followed that matter. When overlaying 1937, 2000, and 2008 all together on one chart, they show that the bull rally phases had nearly the same duration, with all peaking within a 6-month time frame, followed by a sharp decline, a very sharp countertrend rally followed by a significantly steeper decline.BloombergDoes this mean the market of 2022 has to follow the same path? No, of course, it does not. But if this is a bear market we are in, and the pattern continues, the market may be entering the most dangerous part of the bear market. The part where a powerful rally catches everyone off guard and is followed by a sharp and sudden decline.BloombergWhat happens next for stocks is anyone's guess, and these charts do not tell us what that outcome will be. But the power of history and human emotion tells us what may happen next, and in this case, the answer may be staring us right in the face for all to see.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1625,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9905205723,"gmtCreate":1659887470865,"gmtModify":1703767365223,"author":{"id":"3577450970953718","authorId":"3577450970953718","name":"Minhoshuting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ab92b2914bd064ccd8620ef1d430ff","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577450970953718","idStr":"3577450970953718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"O","listText":"O","text":"O","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9905205723","repostId":"1166128821","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166128821","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659844984,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166128821?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-07 12:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Q2: Investors Beware","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166128821","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir will be reporting its Q2 results before markets open on Monday.Its revenue is estima","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Palantir will be reporting its Q2 results before markets open on Monday.</li><li>Its revenue is estimated to be $474.1 million.</li><li>Palantir&#39;s government revenue likely to remain subdued on account of lackluster order wins from the US government during the quarter.</li></ul><p>Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) will be releasing its Q2resultsbefore markets open on Monday. The company&#39;s management issued an extremely conservative revenue guidance for the quarter, in light of the global macroeconomic uncertainty, and investors are now wondering if there&#39;s a possibility of a revenue beat. But in addition to tracking Palantir&#39;s top line figure, investors should also track its customer additions, billings growth, segment financials and its management&#39;s outlook for Q3. These items, collectively, will highlight Palantir&#39;s near-term growth prospects and are likely to determine where its shares head next.</p><p><b>Operating Metrics</b></p><p>There&#39;s no denying that Palantir is a rapidly growing company but we&#39;ve to keep a vigilant eye and check if its financial and operating growth momentums don&#39;t fizzle out during these times of macroeconomic uncertainty. For this, we can start by monitoring Palantir&#39;s customer additions, which essentially highlights its customer traction and indicates how competitive its platforms really are, in today&#39;s time.</p><p>Palantir has been able to expand its commercial customer base at an impressive pace over the past 6 quarters, exactly as I had forecasted in my prior articles like here, by undertaking a slew of initiatives. They rapidly expanded their sales team, offered free/limit trials to major enterprises and switched to a recurring payment model to reduce the inertia amongst its potential customer base. Since these initiatives are still ongoing, I expect them to continue bearing fruit and expect the company&#39;s commercial customer base to expand rapidly in the foreseeable future as well.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfaddbc06e94e062dc724ff5af6593b7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p>However, Palantir seems to have hit a saturation point with regards to its government customer base. Maybe there&#39;s geopolitics at play, or maybe there aren&#39;t many government agencies in the world that are looking for data analytics solutions from a non-native company that has close ties with the US government. I welcome readers to speculate on the issue. But having said that, there haven&#39;t been any major announcements from Palantir to catapult growth in this area so I expect its government customer base to more or less remain flat sequentially.</p><p>Moving on, the customer adds figure alone won&#39;t be enough to reveal the entire picture. For instance, a sequentially flat billings figure, while customer growth continues, would imply that either existing customers slashed their spending on Palantir&#39;s platforms or its new customers signed up with miniscule contract values. On the other hand, healthy customer and billings growth would imply that Palantir&#39;s new and existing customers are in the process of ramping their spending on the company&#39;s platforms. A third scenario could be if Palantir&#39;s billings and customer growth declines, stagnates, or slows down, which would imply that Palantir has hit a saturation point and its platforms are no longer in vogue. So, pay close attention to Palantir&#39;s billings growth once the company reports its Q2 results this coming Monday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfef004ca3e7144d46683d030948280b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p>Now, having discussed the operating levers, let&#39;s now shift attention to Palantir&#39;s financials.</p><p><b>Financial Bifurcation</b></p><p>It&#39;s worth noting that Palantir classifies its revenue in two reportable segments, namely commercial and government segments. The commercial segment happens to be the smaller one out of the two, at least in terms of revenue, and amounted to nearly 46% of the company&#39;s total sales last quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6c26bc211b592883ccfc648d76d754f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p>Thanks to the rapid commercial customer adds in recent quarters, Palantir&#39;s commercial revenue has been growing at a breakneck pace of late and driving growth for the company as a whole. I expect this dynamic to continue in Q2 as well, with commercial revenue growing 10% sequentially and amounting to $225 million during Q2 2022.</p><p>The government segment contributed a little over 54% to Palantir&#39;s overall sales last quarter and the revenue stream has been growing at a relatively slower pace. This is, in part, due to the saturation in government customer additions as seen in the first section of this article. If the company&#39;s government customer base has saturated, then it&#39;s only natural that its government revenue stream would saturate as well.</p><p>What exacerbates the problem is that the inflow of federal government contracts has considerably slowed down in the last 2 quarters. Although Palantir&#39;s management noted in their last earnings call that they are &#34;seeing an acceleration of our U.S. government revenue&#34;, the ground reality isn&#39;t all that encouraging. As it turns out, the dollar-value of new orders signed with various US government agencies during Q2, is up 14% sequentially but still down 48% year over year. This means that even though Palantir has made some progress on this front, there&#39;s still a long way to go when compared to the company&#39;s own prior history with government contract wins.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513e837064ffbf5b6adf1084eda3110b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p>So, as far as Q2 is concerned, I expect Palantir&#39;s government revenue to grow marginally by 3% sequentially, with its revenue figure coming in at approximately $249 million. At this pace, I expect Palantir&#39;s commercial revenue to overtake its government revenue and become the leading contributor to the entire company&#39;s top line sometime in Q4 2022 or Q1 2023. But coming back to our discussion, this brings us to a company-wide revenue estimate of $474.1 million. My forecast is coincidentally in-line with the Street&#39;sestimatesthat are spanning from $470 million to $475.9 million.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a64133285cdbea23e36084f025bdfe2b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p>But having said that, pay close attention to Palantir management&#39;s revenue and billings outlook for Q3. As companies and government agencies across the globe cut down on spending, Palantir might be affected as well. This could come in the form of order cancellations, deferred contract signings and/or slowing down revenue growth. So, look for management&#39;s comments on their growth momentum.</p><p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p>Palantir&#39;s shares are down 62% from their 52-week highs and they&#39;re now attractively valued at current levels. The stock is trading at 14-times its trailing twelve-month sales at the time of this writing, which is more or less in-line with many of the other rapidly growing software infrastructure stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f28bcdbe209a2f5851224c7db57676\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p>I, personally, expect Palantir to continue growing rapidly in the next 2 years at the very least. The company has compelling platform offerings and it has market validation in the form of rapid commercial customer additions. So, I remain bullish on Palantir. But, at the same time, I would recommend readers and investors to remain vigilant and monitor its customer additions, billings growth, segment financials and its management&#39;s outlook for Q3. These items will indicate if Palantir is succumbing to macroeconomic pressures or if its growth momentum remains intact. Good Luck!</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Q2: Investors Beware</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Q2: Investors Beware\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-07 12:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529579-palantir-q2-investors-beware><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir will be reporting its Q2 results before markets open on Monday.Its revenue is estimated to be $474.1 million.Palantir's government revenue likely to remain subdued on account of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529579-palantir-q2-investors-beware\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529579-palantir-q2-investors-beware","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166128821","content_text":"SummaryPalantir will be reporting its Q2 results before markets open on Monday.Its revenue is estimated to be $474.1 million.Palantir's government revenue likely to remain subdued on account of lackluster order wins from the US government during the quarter.Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) will be releasing its Q2resultsbefore markets open on Monday. The company's management issued an extremely conservative revenue guidance for the quarter, in light of the global macroeconomic uncertainty, and investors are now wondering if there's a possibility of a revenue beat. But in addition to tracking Palantir's top line figure, investors should also track its customer additions, billings growth, segment financials and its management's outlook for Q3. These items, collectively, will highlight Palantir's near-term growth prospects and are likely to determine where its shares head next.Operating MetricsThere's no denying that Palantir is a rapidly growing company but we've to keep a vigilant eye and check if its financial and operating growth momentums don't fizzle out during these times of macroeconomic uncertainty. For this, we can start by monitoring Palantir's customer additions, which essentially highlights its customer traction and indicates how competitive its platforms really are, in today's time.Palantir has been able to expand its commercial customer base at an impressive pace over the past 6 quarters, exactly as I had forecasted in my prior articles like here, by undertaking a slew of initiatives. They rapidly expanded their sales team, offered free/limit trials to major enterprises and switched to a recurring payment model to reduce the inertia amongst its potential customer base. Since these initiatives are still ongoing, I expect them to continue bearing fruit and expect the company's commercial customer base to expand rapidly in the foreseeable future as well.BusinessQuant.comHowever, Palantir seems to have hit a saturation point with regards to its government customer base. Maybe there's geopolitics at play, or maybe there aren't many government agencies in the world that are looking for data analytics solutions from a non-native company that has close ties with the US government. I welcome readers to speculate on the issue. But having said that, there haven't been any major announcements from Palantir to catapult growth in this area so I expect its government customer base to more or less remain flat sequentially.Moving on, the customer adds figure alone won't be enough to reveal the entire picture. For instance, a sequentially flat billings figure, while customer growth continues, would imply that either existing customers slashed their spending on Palantir's platforms or its new customers signed up with miniscule contract values. On the other hand, healthy customer and billings growth would imply that Palantir's new and existing customers are in the process of ramping their spending on the company's platforms. A third scenario could be if Palantir's billings and customer growth declines, stagnates, or slows down, which would imply that Palantir has hit a saturation point and its platforms are no longer in vogue. So, pay close attention to Palantir's billings growth once the company reports its Q2 results this coming Monday.BusinessQuant.comNow, having discussed the operating levers, let's now shift attention to Palantir's financials.Financial BifurcationIt's worth noting that Palantir classifies its revenue in two reportable segments, namely commercial and government segments. The commercial segment happens to be the smaller one out of the two, at least in terms of revenue, and amounted to nearly 46% of the company's total sales last quarter.BusinessQuant.comThanks to the rapid commercial customer adds in recent quarters, Palantir's commercial revenue has been growing at a breakneck pace of late and driving growth for the company as a whole. I expect this dynamic to continue in Q2 as well, with commercial revenue growing 10% sequentially and amounting to $225 million during Q2 2022.The government segment contributed a little over 54% to Palantir's overall sales last quarter and the revenue stream has been growing at a relatively slower pace. This is, in part, due to the saturation in government customer additions as seen in the first section of this article. If the company's government customer base has saturated, then it's only natural that its government revenue stream would saturate as well.What exacerbates the problem is that the inflow of federal government contracts has considerably slowed down in the last 2 quarters. Although Palantir's management noted in their last earnings call that they are \"seeing an acceleration of our U.S. government revenue\", the ground reality isn't all that encouraging. As it turns out, the dollar-value of new orders signed with various US government agencies during Q2, is up 14% sequentially but still down 48% year over year. This means that even though Palantir has made some progress on this front, there's still a long way to go when compared to the company's own prior history with government contract wins.BusinessQuant.comSo, as far as Q2 is concerned, I expect Palantir's government revenue to grow marginally by 3% sequentially, with its revenue figure coming in at approximately $249 million. At this pace, I expect Palantir's commercial revenue to overtake its government revenue and become the leading contributor to the entire company's top line sometime in Q4 2022 or Q1 2023. But coming back to our discussion, this brings us to a company-wide revenue estimate of $474.1 million. My forecast is coincidentally in-line with the Street'sestimatesthat are spanning from $470 million to $475.9 million.BusinessQuant.comBut having said that, pay close attention to Palantir management's revenue and billings outlook for Q3. As companies and government agencies across the globe cut down on spending, Palantir might be affected as well. This could come in the form of order cancellations, deferred contract signings and/or slowing down revenue growth. So, look for management's comments on their growth momentum.Final ThoughtsPalantir's shares are down 62% from their 52-week highs and they're now attractively valued at current levels. The stock is trading at 14-times its trailing twelve-month sales at the time of this writing, which is more or less in-line with many of the other rapidly growing software infrastructure stocks.BusinessQuant.comI, personally, expect Palantir to continue growing rapidly in the next 2 years at the very least. The company has compelling platform offerings and it has market validation in the form of rapid commercial customer additions. So, I remain bullish on Palantir. But, at the same time, I would recommend readers and investors to remain vigilant and monitor its customer additions, billings growth, segment financials and its management's outlook for Q3. These items will indicate if Palantir is succumbing to macroeconomic pressures or if its growth momentum remains intact. Good Luck!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9905025923,"gmtCreate":1659774773364,"gmtModify":1703766480507,"author":{"id":"3577450970953718","authorId":"3577450970953718","name":"Minhoshuting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ab92b2914bd064ccd8620ef1d430ff","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577450970953718","idStr":"3577450970953718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9905025923","repostId":"1169492962","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169492962","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659757863,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169492962?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-06 11:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: No Competitor Yet From EV Startups","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169492962","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAs the EV race heats up, EV startups that went public in the past year have average one-year ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>As the EV race heats up, EV startups that went public in the past year have average one-year returns of -56%, showing the need for &#34;brand equity.&#34;</li><li>EV startups are in trouble as sales have been minimal, venture money has dried up, and share prices have plummeted.</li><li>Tesla is facing little competition from these EVs startups in the U.S. and Europe.</li><li>Tesla&#39;s greatest challenge will come from traditional automotive companies with EV products.</li></ul><p>In an increasingly competitive business as incumbent automakers introduce their own EVs, startups are in trouble as sales have been minimal, venture money has dried up, and share prices have plummeted.</p><p>I discussed in detail the lengths some of these startups have gone through to go public and get operating capital by forming Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPAC), which are shell companies that have no operations but go public with the intention of merging with or acquiring a company using the proceeds of the SPAC&#39;s IPO. I noted in my July 27, 2022, Seeking Alpha article entitled &#34;MOKE + EV Technology Group: The Cost And Value Of &#39;Brand Equity&#39; In The EV Automotive Value Chain:&#34;</p><blockquote>&#34;SPACs contributed half of the $29 billion raised publicly by EV manufacturers, suppliers and charging firms in 2021. EV startups Nikola (NKLA), Lordstown Motors (RIDE), Canoo (GOEV), Faraday Future Intelligent Electric (FFIE), Fisker (FSR), and Lucid Group (LCID) all went public through SPAC deals over the last two years.&#34;</blockquote><p>SPACs go public at $10 per share, a price point that serves as a simple benchmark for how those stocks have been received. Of these SPAC companies, only the share price of Lucid Group is above its IPO price at $18.25, as shown in Chart 1.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5714c58d0d64a5bccfd46926742db3f\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Chart 1</p><p><b>Is There a Doctor in the House?</b></p><p>In Tables 1-3, I break down the current crop of EV startups by <i>level of funding</i> from all sources and compare each to Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA). Table 1 shows the first five ranked companies. I don&#39;t include Rivian Automotive (RIVN), which would top the list by accumulating $10.7 billion in funding. Rivian&#39;s shares are down 65.95% since the IPO in 11/21, and the company continues to struggle. Layoffs at Rivian started in late July 2022 as the company races to cut costs amid a challenging economic climate and pressure to increase production. It delivered 1,227 vehicles in the first quarter and reported 4,467 deliveries in Q2. Rivian is targeting production of 25,000 vehicles this year, half of its initial production guidance for 2022.</p><p>Table 1 shows significant variations in financial metrics among the five companies. TSLA shows positive TTM revenue, Net Income, and Gross Profit. All the startups reported TTM Revenue, but only Li Auto (LI) reported a positive Net Income and Gross Profit.</p><p>Lucid Group was the top fund raiser on this list. Lucid delivered 360 EVs, helping to account for $57.7 million in revenue in Q1 2022, but revised its 2022 production volume outlook to a range of 6K to 7K vehicles following the release of itsQ2 results. Guidance earlier in the year was for production volume of 12K to 14K vehicles.</p><p>China&#39;s NIO (NIO) delivered 25,059 electric cars in Q2, which is slightly above the guidance of 23,000-25,000. So far this year, NIO globally sold 50,827 electric cars. But NIO reported a loss from operations was RMB2,445.1 million (US$383.7 million) in the fourth quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 162.5% from the fourth quarter of 2020 and an increase of 146.5% from the third quarter of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfe93875be1bf07e575523460045fcdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Chart 2 shows a similar story based on one-year share price percent change for the companies listed in Table 1. TSLA is the only company showing positive growth at 29.72% as of the close on July 29, 2022. LI share price was -1.65%. NIO share price is down 55.84% showing investors the COVID situation in China remains fluid and EV shares in general remain under a cloud amid rising interest rates and fears of a global recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efe4c7e633c9284904c710ab74634088\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Chart 2</p><p>Table 2 shows TSLA compared with startups ranked #5-8 based on level of funding. Only Fisker reported TTM revenues of just $96,000. Wall Street was initially attracted to its asset-light business model based on contract manufacturing. However, declining investor appetite for pre-revenue companies has taken the focus away from companies like Fisker.</p><p>That will change as the Fisker Ocean is set to start production in November 2022 and sold exclusively through the Fisker app. According to the company, reservations for the Ocean electric SUV surpassed 50,000, a significant rise from the 40,000 preorders announced in early April. The Ocean with the base Sport trim priced at $37,499 before incentives.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a779539168c1ed560346f0bd91e702a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"172\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Chart 3 shows one-year share price percent change for the companies listed in Table 2. Again, TSLA is the only company showing positive growth at 29.72% as of the close on July 29, 2022. FSR share price is down 40.57%. The stock is trading below its IPO price.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c79d2a4a21567a786f5279bb8518a03d\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Chart 3</p><p>Table 3 shows the remaining EV startups, but funding has not been disclosed. Of the four startups, only Ayro (AYRO) showed positive TTM revenue of just $2.92M but net income was -$32.01M. Ayro has a different business model than the other companies included in this article as it designs and manufactures electric vehicles for closed campus mobility, urban and community transport, local on-demand and last mile delivery, and government use. The company provides four-wheeled purpose-built electric vehicles for universities, business and medical campuses, last mile delivery services, and food service providers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f10fa589992a7ab699d73dbc255e0f0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"171\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Chart 4 shows one-year share price percent change for the companies listed in Table 3. Again, TSLA is the only company showing positive growth at 29.72% as of the close on July 29, 2022. All others have exhibited large negative double-digit share performance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd4ac75c6f128418a1b06ff8262e2389\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Chart 4</p><p><b>Tesla&#39;s Performance</b></p><p>Tesla reported a mixed Q2 earnings report on in its Q2 earnings call on July 20, 2022. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.27 vs. $1.81 expected. Revenue missed at $16.93 billion vs. $17.1 billion expected. Chart 5 shows quarterly performance through Q2 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4052a39627697f9c8983ee7159207dee\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Chart 5</p><p>In Q2 2022, TSLA achieved record production rates across the company, producing more than 258,000 vehicles and delivered 254,695 vehicles. That was below consensus estimates of 266,795 vehicles, and down from 310,048 in 1Q 2022, as the company faced a continuation of manufacturing challenges related to shutdowns, global supply chain disruptions, labor shortages and logistics and other complications, which limited its ability to consistently run our factories at full capacity.</p><p>While the Shanghai factory was shut down fully and then partially for the majority of Q2, TSLA ended the quarter with a record monthly production level. Recent equipment upgrades will enable the company to continue to increase its production rate further.</p><p>The Fremont Factory made a record number of vehicles in Q2. I see opportunities for further production rate improvements. The next generation of 4680 battery cell machinery has been installed in Texas and is in the process of commissioning. Factory output in Texas continues to grow.</p><p>Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg reached an important milestone of over 1,000 cars produced in a single week while achieving positive gross margin during the quarter. Tesla expect the production rate to continue improving through the rest of the year.</p><p>Table 4 shows U.S. EV shipments for Q2 2021 and Q2 2022 by model. In Q2, Tesla was the top-selling luxury brand in the U.S., outpacing all the established names: Audi, BMW, Cadillac, Lexus, Mercedes-Benz, as seen in Table 4.</p><p>EV sales as a percentage of total automobile sales. In Q2, EV sales accounted for 5.6% of the total market, an increase from 5.3% in Q1. EV share in Q2 2021 was 2.7%. In Q2 2021, there were 19 EV models for sale in the U.S. One year later, the number jumped to 33.</p><p>Table 4 - Source: Cox Automotive</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/426fa2458fb9e40d222a5fc1f897b9c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"566\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Cox Automotive</p><p>However, as new EV models continue to enter the market, Tesla&#39;s share of the EV segment is dropping. Last quarter, it fell to 66.1%, down from 74.6% in Q1 2022, as shown in Table 5. Tesla shipments by model are also shown. Importantly, Tesla is losing market share to traditional automobile companies with EV entrants, rather than the EV startups discussed above.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0918cc0a62c48586076b6fbceda928a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Cox Automotive</p><p><b>Investor Takeaway</b></p><p>I discussed in my July 27, 2022, Seeking Alpha article entitled &#34;MOKE + EV Technology Group: The Cost And Value Of &#39;Brand Equity&#39; In The EV Automotive Value Chain&#34; that Brand Equity would be critical to growth of a startup. The advantages of Brand Equity, which gives a product competitive edge in the marketplace include:</p><ul><li>Developing a greater market share</li><li>Charging a price premium</li><li>Ease of Recognition</li><li>Differentiation from the competition</li></ul><p>Brand equity can be defined as the additional value that a recognizable brand name adds to a product offering, and is created as customers becoming increasingly and more personally aware of a brand and build a connection with it.</p><p>None of the EV startups detailed in Tables 1-3 are on the radar in sales in the U.S., Europe, and China. Indeed, the only competition for Tesla in the U.S. and Europe are established automobile companies with EV offerings. China is different with little competition coming from traditional non-Chinese automobile manufacturers with EV offerings, yet Tesla is still within the Top 10 of sales through June 2022.</p><p>In Chart 7, I show share price for the five EV companies (including TSLA) listed in Table 1, and show EPS for the past one-year period. Indeed, only Tesla has a positive EPS.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a40f40a1f17002fa2eb540525072ea\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Chart 7</p><p>The point of this article is to expand on my thesis in my previous article the importance of Brand Equity. Tesla has achieved Brand Equity, as I showed in that article. But without it, EV startups are struggling. The competition to Tesla outside China is coming from established automobile makers with EV offerings, not these startups.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: No Competitor Yet From EV Startups</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: No Competitor Yet From EV Startups\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-06 11:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4530333-tesla-no-competitor-from-ev-startups?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A12><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAs the EV race heats up, EV startups that went public in the past year have average one-year returns of -56%, showing the need for \"brand equity.\"EV startups are in trouble as sales have been ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4530333-tesla-no-competitor-from-ev-startups?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A12\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4530333-tesla-no-competitor-from-ev-startups?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A12","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169492962","content_text":"SummaryAs the EV race heats up, EV startups that went public in the past year have average one-year returns of -56%, showing the need for \"brand equity.\"EV startups are in trouble as sales have been minimal, venture money has dried up, and share prices have plummeted.Tesla is facing little competition from these EVs startups in the U.S. and Europe.Tesla's greatest challenge will come from traditional automotive companies with EV products.In an increasingly competitive business as incumbent automakers introduce their own EVs, startups are in trouble as sales have been minimal, venture money has dried up, and share prices have plummeted.I discussed in detail the lengths some of these startups have gone through to go public and get operating capital by forming Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPAC), which are shell companies that have no operations but go public with the intention of merging with or acquiring a company using the proceeds of the SPAC's IPO. I noted in my July 27, 2022, Seeking Alpha article entitled \"MOKE + EV Technology Group: The Cost And Value Of 'Brand Equity' In The EV Automotive Value Chain:\"\"SPACs contributed half of the $29 billion raised publicly by EV manufacturers, suppliers and charging firms in 2021. EV startups Nikola (NKLA), Lordstown Motors (RIDE), Canoo (GOEV), Faraday Future Intelligent Electric (FFIE), Fisker (FSR), and Lucid Group (LCID) all went public through SPAC deals over the last two years.\"SPACs go public at $10 per share, a price point that serves as a simple benchmark for how those stocks have been received. Of these SPAC companies, only the share price of Lucid Group is above its IPO price at $18.25, as shown in Chart 1.YChartsChart 1Is There a Doctor in the House?In Tables 1-3, I break down the current crop of EV startups by level of funding from all sources and compare each to Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA). Table 1 shows the first five ranked companies. I don't include Rivian Automotive (RIVN), which would top the list by accumulating $10.7 billion in funding. Rivian's shares are down 65.95% since the IPO in 11/21, and the company continues to struggle. Layoffs at Rivian started in late July 2022 as the company races to cut costs amid a challenging economic climate and pressure to increase production. It delivered 1,227 vehicles in the first quarter and reported 4,467 deliveries in Q2. Rivian is targeting production of 25,000 vehicles this year, half of its initial production guidance for 2022.Table 1 shows significant variations in financial metrics among the five companies. TSLA shows positive TTM revenue, Net Income, and Gross Profit. All the startups reported TTM Revenue, but only Li Auto (LI) reported a positive Net Income and Gross Profit.Lucid Group was the top fund raiser on this list. Lucid delivered 360 EVs, helping to account for $57.7 million in revenue in Q1 2022, but revised its 2022 production volume outlook to a range of 6K to 7K vehicles following the release of itsQ2 results. Guidance earlier in the year was for production volume of 12K to 14K vehicles.China's NIO (NIO) delivered 25,059 electric cars in Q2, which is slightly above the guidance of 23,000-25,000. So far this year, NIO globally sold 50,827 electric cars. But NIO reported a loss from operations was RMB2,445.1 million (US$383.7 million) in the fourth quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 162.5% from the fourth quarter of 2020 and an increase of 146.5% from the third quarter of 2021.Seeking AlphaChart 2 shows a similar story based on one-year share price percent change for the companies listed in Table 1. TSLA is the only company showing positive growth at 29.72% as of the close on July 29, 2022. LI share price was -1.65%. NIO share price is down 55.84% showing investors the COVID situation in China remains fluid and EV shares in general remain under a cloud amid rising interest rates and fears of a global recession.YChartsChart 2Table 2 shows TSLA compared with startups ranked #5-8 based on level of funding. Only Fisker reported TTM revenues of just $96,000. Wall Street was initially attracted to its asset-light business model based on contract manufacturing. However, declining investor appetite for pre-revenue companies has taken the focus away from companies like Fisker.That will change as the Fisker Ocean is set to start production in November 2022 and sold exclusively through the Fisker app. According to the company, reservations for the Ocean electric SUV surpassed 50,000, a significant rise from the 40,000 preorders announced in early April. The Ocean with the base Sport trim priced at $37,499 before incentives.Seeking AlphaChart 3 shows one-year share price percent change for the companies listed in Table 2. Again, TSLA is the only company showing positive growth at 29.72% as of the close on July 29, 2022. FSR share price is down 40.57%. The stock is trading below its IPO price.YChartsChart 3Table 3 shows the remaining EV startups, but funding has not been disclosed. Of the four startups, only Ayro (AYRO) showed positive TTM revenue of just $2.92M but net income was -$32.01M. Ayro has a different business model than the other companies included in this article as it designs and manufactures electric vehicles for closed campus mobility, urban and community transport, local on-demand and last mile delivery, and government use. The company provides four-wheeled purpose-built electric vehicles for universities, business and medical campuses, last mile delivery services, and food service providers.Seeking AlphaChart 4 shows one-year share price percent change for the companies listed in Table 3. Again, TSLA is the only company showing positive growth at 29.72% as of the close on July 29, 2022. All others have exhibited large negative double-digit share performance.YChartsChart 4Tesla's PerformanceTesla reported a mixed Q2 earnings report on in its Q2 earnings call on July 20, 2022. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.27 vs. $1.81 expected. Revenue missed at $16.93 billion vs. $17.1 billion expected. Chart 5 shows quarterly performance through Q2 2022.YChartsChart 5In Q2 2022, TSLA achieved record production rates across the company, producing more than 258,000 vehicles and delivered 254,695 vehicles. That was below consensus estimates of 266,795 vehicles, and down from 310,048 in 1Q 2022, as the company faced a continuation of manufacturing challenges related to shutdowns, global supply chain disruptions, labor shortages and logistics and other complications, which limited its ability to consistently run our factories at full capacity.While the Shanghai factory was shut down fully and then partially for the majority of Q2, TSLA ended the quarter with a record monthly production level. Recent equipment upgrades will enable the company to continue to increase its production rate further.The Fremont Factory made a record number of vehicles in Q2. I see opportunities for further production rate improvements. The next generation of 4680 battery cell machinery has been installed in Texas and is in the process of commissioning. Factory output in Texas continues to grow.Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg reached an important milestone of over 1,000 cars produced in a single week while achieving positive gross margin during the quarter. Tesla expect the production rate to continue improving through the rest of the year.Table 4 shows U.S. EV shipments for Q2 2021 and Q2 2022 by model. In Q2, Tesla was the top-selling luxury brand in the U.S., outpacing all the established names: Audi, BMW, Cadillac, Lexus, Mercedes-Benz, as seen in Table 4.EV sales as a percentage of total automobile sales. In Q2, EV sales accounted for 5.6% of the total market, an increase from 5.3% in Q1. EV share in Q2 2021 was 2.7%. In Q2 2021, there were 19 EV models for sale in the U.S. One year later, the number jumped to 33.Table 4 - Source: Cox AutomotiveCox AutomotiveHowever, as new EV models continue to enter the market, Tesla's share of the EV segment is dropping. Last quarter, it fell to 66.1%, down from 74.6% in Q1 2022, as shown in Table 5. Tesla shipments by model are also shown. Importantly, Tesla is losing market share to traditional automobile companies with EV entrants, rather than the EV startups discussed above.Cox AutomotiveInvestor TakeawayI discussed in my July 27, 2022, Seeking Alpha article entitled \"MOKE + EV Technology Group: The Cost And Value Of 'Brand Equity' In The EV Automotive Value Chain\" that Brand Equity would be critical to growth of a startup. The advantages of Brand Equity, which gives a product competitive edge in the marketplace include:Developing a greater market shareCharging a price premiumEase of RecognitionDifferentiation from the competitionBrand equity can be defined as the additional value that a recognizable brand name adds to a product offering, and is created as customers becoming increasingly and more personally aware of a brand and build a connection with it.None of the EV startups detailed in Tables 1-3 are on the radar in sales in the U.S., Europe, and China. Indeed, the only competition for Tesla in the U.S. and Europe are established automobile companies with EV offerings. China is different with little competition coming from traditional non-Chinese automobile manufacturers with EV offerings, yet Tesla is still within the Top 10 of sales through June 2022.In Chart 7, I show share price for the five EV companies (including TSLA) listed in Table 1, and show EPS for the past one-year period. Indeed, only Tesla has a positive EPS.YChartsChart 7The point of this article is to expand on my thesis in my previous article the importance of Brand Equity. Tesla has achieved Brand Equity, as I showed in that article. But without it, EV startups are struggling. The competition to Tesla outside China is coming from established automobile makers with EV offerings, not these startups.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":907,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9902693777,"gmtCreate":1659679882702,"gmtModify":1704964594888,"author":{"id":"3577450970953718","authorId":"3577450970953718","name":"Minhoshuting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ab92b2914bd064ccd8620ef1d430ff","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577450970953718","idStr":"3577450970953718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9902693777","repostId":"9902690818","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9902690818,"gmtCreate":1659679308340,"gmtModify":1704964195346,"author":{"id":"3479274743139604","authorId":"3479274743139604","name":"skythelimit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aa6cfc781341a2317d2cca41267dd98","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3479274743139604","idStr":"3479274743139604"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Intel MUST release its new product and quickly; it actually destroys the AMD product on a price point and operational perspective. Todays comments from the analyst; same guy that downgraded intel in recent weeks; is making his entire thesis on the idea that Intel will be late to market; its the same guy that harassed Pat on the call with a question he didn't get the perfect answer to and made huge conclusions.If intel gets its product to market; saphire that is; prepare for intel to do very well; but it will be poopooed on by the streat through the whole process. The street hates this stock. Its going to be a great chance to buy a fundamentally increasing stock while the price may decrease. Same thing is true over at boeing.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$Intel(INTC)$</a> &nbsp;","listText":"Intel MUST release its new product and quickly; it actually destroys the AMD product on a price point and operational perspective. Todays comments from the analyst; same guy that downgraded intel in recent weeks; is making his entire thesis on the idea that Intel will be late to market; its the same guy that harassed Pat on the call with a question he didn't get the perfect answer to and made huge conclusions.If intel gets its product to market; saphire that is; prepare for intel to do very well; but it will be poopooed on by the streat through the whole process. The street hates this stock. Its going to be a great chance to buy a fundamentally increasing stock while the price may decrease. Same thing is true over at boeing.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$Intel(INTC)$</a> &nbsp;","text":"Intel MUST release its new product and quickly; it actually destroys the AMD product on a price point and operational perspective. Todays comments from the analyst; same guy that downgraded intel in recent weeks; is making his entire thesis on the idea that Intel will be late to market; its the same guy that harassed Pat on the call with a question he didn't get the perfect answer to and made huge conclusions.If intel gets its product to market; saphire that is; prepare for intel to do very well; but it will be poopooed on by the streat through the whole process. The street hates this stock. Its going to be a great chance to buy a fundamentally increasing stock while the price may decrease. Same thing is true over at boeing.$Intel(INTC)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9902690818","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1292,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9902693680,"gmtCreate":1659679782242,"gmtModify":1704964429594,"author":{"id":"3577450970953718","authorId":"3577450970953718","name":"Minhoshuting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ab92b2914bd064ccd8620ef1d430ff","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577450970953718","idStr":"3577450970953718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9902693680","repostId":"2257013357","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2257013357","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1659654049,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2257013357?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-05 07:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Shareholders Clear Path for 3-for-1 Stock Split","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2257013357","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Tesla Inc. shareholders cleared the way Thursday for the company to complete its second stock split ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Tesla Inc. shareholders cleared the way Thursday for the company to complete its second stock split in about two years, based on a preliminary vote count.</p><p>Elon Musk&#39;s electric-vehicle maker, whose stock price has roughly tripled in the past two years, is planning a 3-for-1 stock split that the company has said is designed to make ownership more accessible to employees and individual investors. Tesla needed shareholders to sign off on issuing the new shares to complete the split. The move wouldn&#39;t affect the company&#39;s market value, which topped $960 billion as of Thursday.</p><p>That proposal was among more than a dozen facing investor consideration at Tesla&#39;s annual shareholder meeting, held at the company&#39;s Austin, Texas-area factory.</p><p>The gathering followed a recent rally in Tesla&#39;s stock price after the company reported second-quarter earnings that were better than expected. Tesla generated $2.3 billion in profit for the period, ahead of Wall Street&#39;s expectations but below its record quarterly profit of $3.3 billion in the first three months of the year.</p><p>An extended shutdown at Tesla&#39;s Shanghai assembly plant, paired with global supply-chain disruptions and labor shortages weighed on results.</p><p>Chief Financial Officer Zach Kirkhorn said on the company&#39;s July earnings call that Tesla was still aiming for 50% vehicle-delivery growth this year over 2021, though he acknowledged that reaching that target had become more difficult.</p><p>The investor gathering spotlighted concerns that some shareholders have expressed about Tesla&#39;s corporate governance. Several of the nonbinding proposals dealt with employment issues, from corporate efforts to prevent harassment and discrimination to how mandatory arbitration affects Tesla&#39;s employees and workplace culture. A preliminary tally indicated those measures didn&#39;t receive the requisite votes.</p><p>The company is facing scrutiny from state and federal employment authorities over issues including alleged racial discrimination and harassment at its Fremont, Calif., assembly plant. The California Department of Fair Employment and Housing sued Tesla in February, saying that Black workers routinely heard supervisors using racial slurs and were confronted with racist graffiti in the factory. Tesla has alleged misconduct by the California agency and said it is seeking dismissal of the case.</p><p>In June, the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission reached conclusions similar to those of the California employment agency, Tesla said in a securities filing, adding that it planned to begin settlement talks with federal officials.</p><p>Shareholders also backed the proposed re-election of the Tesla directors Ira Ehrenpreis and Kathleen Wilson-Thompson, who have served on the board since 2007 and 2018, respectively.</p><p>The proxy advisory firm Institutional Shareholder Services had urged investors to vote against their re-election, citing concern about the board&#39;s risk oversight and Tesla&#39;s response to a measure that shareholders approved last year. That nonbinding proposal called on Tesla to cut board members&#39; terms to one year, from three.</p><p>Instead, Tesla asked shareholders to reduce directors&#39; terms to two years. Such a proposal failed to gain the requisite votes last year or in 2019 and failed again this year.</p><p>Oracle Corp. co-founder Larry Ellison, who joined the board in 2018, didn&#39;t stand for re-election, meaning Tesla&#39;s board is poised to shrink to seven members, from eight.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Shareholders Clear Path for 3-for-1 Stock Split</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Shareholders Clear Path for 3-for-1 Stock Split\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-08-05 07:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Tesla Inc. shareholders cleared the way Thursday for the company to complete its second stock split in about two years, based on a preliminary vote count.</p><p>Elon Musk&#39;s electric-vehicle maker, whose stock price has roughly tripled in the past two years, is planning a 3-for-1 stock split that the company has said is designed to make ownership more accessible to employees and individual investors. Tesla needed shareholders to sign off on issuing the new shares to complete the split. The move wouldn&#39;t affect the company&#39;s market value, which topped $960 billion as of Thursday.</p><p>That proposal was among more than a dozen facing investor consideration at Tesla&#39;s annual shareholder meeting, held at the company&#39;s Austin, Texas-area factory.</p><p>The gathering followed a recent rally in Tesla&#39;s stock price after the company reported second-quarter earnings that were better than expected. Tesla generated $2.3 billion in profit for the period, ahead of Wall Street&#39;s expectations but below its record quarterly profit of $3.3 billion in the first three months of the year.</p><p>An extended shutdown at Tesla&#39;s Shanghai assembly plant, paired with global supply-chain disruptions and labor shortages weighed on results.</p><p>Chief Financial Officer Zach Kirkhorn said on the company&#39;s July earnings call that Tesla was still aiming for 50% vehicle-delivery growth this year over 2021, though he acknowledged that reaching that target had become more difficult.</p><p>The investor gathering spotlighted concerns that some shareholders have expressed about Tesla&#39;s corporate governance. Several of the nonbinding proposals dealt with employment issues, from corporate efforts to prevent harassment and discrimination to how mandatory arbitration affects Tesla&#39;s employees and workplace culture. A preliminary tally indicated those measures didn&#39;t receive the requisite votes.</p><p>The company is facing scrutiny from state and federal employment authorities over issues including alleged racial discrimination and harassment at its Fremont, Calif., assembly plant. The California Department of Fair Employment and Housing sued Tesla in February, saying that Black workers routinely heard supervisors using racial slurs and were confronted with racist graffiti in the factory. Tesla has alleged misconduct by the California agency and said it is seeking dismissal of the case.</p><p>In June, the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission reached conclusions similar to those of the California employment agency, Tesla said in a securities filing, adding that it planned to begin settlement talks with federal officials.</p><p>Shareholders also backed the proposed re-election of the Tesla directors Ira Ehrenpreis and Kathleen Wilson-Thompson, who have served on the board since 2007 and 2018, respectively.</p><p>The proxy advisory firm Institutional Shareholder Services had urged investors to vote against their re-election, citing concern about the board&#39;s risk oversight and Tesla&#39;s response to a measure that shareholders approved last year. That nonbinding proposal called on Tesla to cut board members&#39; terms to one year, from three.</p><p>Instead, Tesla asked shareholders to reduce directors&#39; terms to two years. Such a proposal failed to gain the requisite votes last year or in 2019 and failed again this year.</p><p>Oracle Corp. co-founder Larry Ellison, who joined the board in 2018, didn&#39;t stand for re-election, meaning Tesla&#39;s board is poised to shrink to seven members, from eight.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2257013357","content_text":"Tesla Inc. shareholders cleared the way Thursday for the company to complete its second stock split in about two years, based on a preliminary vote count.Elon Musk's electric-vehicle maker, whose stock price has roughly tripled in the past two years, is planning a 3-for-1 stock split that the company has said is designed to make ownership more accessible to employees and individual investors. Tesla needed shareholders to sign off on issuing the new shares to complete the split. The move wouldn't affect the company's market value, which topped $960 billion as of Thursday.That proposal was among more than a dozen facing investor consideration at Tesla's annual shareholder meeting, held at the company's Austin, Texas-area factory.The gathering followed a recent rally in Tesla's stock price after the company reported second-quarter earnings that were better than expected. Tesla generated $2.3 billion in profit for the period, ahead of Wall Street's expectations but below its record quarterly profit of $3.3 billion in the first three months of the year.An extended shutdown at Tesla's Shanghai assembly plant, paired with global supply-chain disruptions and labor shortages weighed on results.Chief Financial Officer Zach Kirkhorn said on the company's July earnings call that Tesla was still aiming for 50% vehicle-delivery growth this year over 2021, though he acknowledged that reaching that target had become more difficult.The investor gathering spotlighted concerns that some shareholders have expressed about Tesla's corporate governance. Several of the nonbinding proposals dealt with employment issues, from corporate efforts to prevent harassment and discrimination to how mandatory arbitration affects Tesla's employees and workplace culture. A preliminary tally indicated those measures didn't receive the requisite votes.The company is facing scrutiny from state and federal employment authorities over issues including alleged racial discrimination and harassment at its Fremont, Calif., assembly plant. The California Department of Fair Employment and Housing sued Tesla in February, saying that Black workers routinely heard supervisors using racial slurs and were confronted with racist graffiti in the factory. Tesla has alleged misconduct by the California agency and said it is seeking dismissal of the case.In June, the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission reached conclusions similar to those of the California employment agency, Tesla said in a securities filing, adding that it planned to begin settlement talks with federal officials.Shareholders also backed the proposed re-election of the Tesla directors Ira Ehrenpreis and Kathleen Wilson-Thompson, who have served on the board since 2007 and 2018, respectively.The proxy advisory firm Institutional Shareholder Services had urged investors to vote against their re-election, citing concern about the board's risk oversight and Tesla's response to a measure that shareholders approved last year. That nonbinding proposal called on Tesla to cut board members' terms to one year, from three.Instead, Tesla asked shareholders to reduce directors' terms to two years. Such a proposal failed to gain the requisite votes last year or in 2019 and failed again this year.Oracle Corp. co-founder Larry Ellison, who joined the board in 2018, didn't stand for re-election, meaning Tesla's board is poised to shrink to seven members, from eight.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":926,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":154116217,"gmtCreate":1625488952639,"gmtModify":1703742577430,"author":{"id":"3577450970953718","authorId":"3577450970953718","name":"Minhoshuting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ab92b2914bd064ccd8620ef1d430ff","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577450970953718","authorIdStr":"3577450970953718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment pls","listText":"Like n comment pls","text":"Like n comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/154116217","repostId":"1109703914","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109703914","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625464355,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109703914?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-05 13:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is the Stock Market Open or Closed on Independence Day?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109703914","media":"Thestreet","summary":"Independence Day in the U.S. is for many a picnic-and-beach day. But July 4 this year falls on a Sunday, which in the United States isn't a trading day.So will the major markets open or close for the holiday?The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq will, in fact, be closed on Monday, July 5, to celebrate Independence Day.It's one of nine full-closing daysfor the stock market this year.For instance, the stock market will close for Thanksgiving on Thursday, Nov. 25. On Friday, Nov. 26, trading i","content":"<p>Independence Day in the U.S. is for many a picnic-and-beach day. But July 4 this year falls on a Sunday, which in the United States isn't a trading day.</p>\n<p>So will the major markets open or close for the holiday?</p>\n<p>The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq will, in fact, be closed on Monday, July 5, to celebrate Independence Day.</p>\n<p>It's&nbsp;one of nine full-closing daysfor the stock market this year.</p>\n<p>For instance, the stock market will close for Thanksgiving on Thursday, Nov. 25. On Friday, Nov. 26, trading is scheduled for a bit more than a half-day, 9:30 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET.</p>\n<p>Normal stock-trading hours run 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the Stock Market Open or Closed on Independence Day?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the Stock Market Open or Closed on Independence Day?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-05 13:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/investing/independence-day-stock-markets-trading-hours><strong>Thestreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Independence Day in the U.S. is for many a picnic-and-beach day. But July 4 this year falls on a Sunday, which in the United States isn't a trading day.\nSo will the major markets open or close for the...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/independence-day-stock-markets-trading-hours\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/independence-day-stock-markets-trading-hours","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109703914","content_text":"Independence Day in the U.S. is for many a picnic-and-beach day. But July 4 this year falls on a Sunday, which in the United States isn't a trading day.\nSo will the major markets open or close for the holiday?\nThe New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq will, in fact, be closed on Monday, July 5, to celebrate Independence Day.\nIt's one of nine full-closing daysfor the stock market this year.\nFor instance, the stock market will close for Thanksgiving on Thursday, Nov. 25. On Friday, Nov. 26, trading is scheduled for a bit more than a half-day, 9:30 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET.\nNormal stock-trading hours run 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":816,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153536184,"gmtCreate":1625033250148,"gmtModify":1703850585746,"author":{"id":"3577450970953718","authorId":"3577450970953718","name":"Minhoshuting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ab92b2914bd064ccd8620ef1d430ff","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577450970953718","authorIdStr":"3577450970953718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment pls thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Like n comment pls thanks&nbsp;","text":"Like n comment pls thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153536184","repostId":"1122418477","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":586,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140798944,"gmtCreate":1625671735188,"gmtModify":1703746224385,"author":{"id":"3577450970953718","authorId":"3577450970953718","name":"Minhoshuting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ab92b2914bd064ccd8620ef1d430ff","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577450970953718","authorIdStr":"3577450970953718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140798944","repostId":"1133802649","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":581,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3575640395742421","authorId":"3575640395742421","name":"ccmk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a90d67ad1fb38a136eae07512ce11d0f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3575640395742421","authorIdStr":"3575640395742421"},"content":"Comment and Like [Happy]","text":"Comment and Like [Happy]","html":"Comment and Like [Happy]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158191367,"gmtCreate":1625134236559,"gmtModify":1703736825177,"author":{"id":"3577450970953718","authorId":"3577450970953718","name":"Minhoshuting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ab92b2914bd064ccd8620ef1d430ff","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577450970953718","authorIdStr":"3577450970953718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls&nbsp;","listText":"Like pls&nbsp;","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/158191367","repostId":"1113357649","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113357649","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625133776,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113357649?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-01 18:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Undervalued With Potential Upside Of 25%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113357649","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Amazon is a unique and growing company that uses its disruptive platform to disrupt any new business it enters.I initiate Amazon with a bullish rating and a fair value of $3576/share .The company's improving top line and bottom line performance  suggests that the stock is currently undervalued by 3.9%.Amazon, a $1.74 trillion company. This is the current market capitalization  of the company and this implies that it is currently 15.18% away from being a $2 trillion company, not bad no?I initiate","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon is a unique and growing company that uses its disruptive platform to disrupt any new business it enters.</li>\n <li>I initiate Amazon with a bullish rating and a fair value of $3576/share (vs. the current price of $3443/share).</li>\n <li>The company's improving top line and bottom line performance (which is expected to continue) suggests that the stock is currently undervalued by 3.9%.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51ce52baed5afae04a384059297465d3\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Daria Nipot/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Company Overview</b></p>\n<p>Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), a $1.74 trillion company. This is the current market capitalization (as of 06/29/2021) of the company and this implies that it is currently 15.18% away from being a $2 trillion company, not bad no?</p>\n<p>Amazon is a unique and growing company that uses its disruptive platform to disrupt any new business it enters. For example, when Amazon announced the acquisition of Whole Foods, Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Kroger(NYSE:KR), Target(NYSE:TGT)took a&nbsp;nice hit&nbsp;in market value. I believe that the company will be able to keep delivering strong top line growth and continued growth in margins, fueled not only by the company's current business expansion but also by entering into new markets and new businesses.</p>\n<p><b>Company Analysis</b></p>\n<p>I initiate Amazon with a bullish rating and a fair value of $3576/share (vs. the current price of $3443/share). The FV is an algorithm-adjusted fair value (the algorithm takes into account fundamental and technical factors, such as DCF FV, momentum, etc.) and it implies that the stock is undervalued by 3.9%.</p>\n<p>To compute the DCF FV, I used the trailing twelve-month numbers and I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. As&nbsp;with Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), I don't believe that Amazon's R&amp;D is an operating expense, and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb427d462596db1e1cb1ffc99acc90e4\" tg-width=\"571\" tg-height=\"240\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>Capitalizing on R&amp;D expenses, we have now a more clear picture of the company (i.e. the restated operating margin is now 9.03% TTM vs the non-restated operating margin is 6.63% TTM).</p>\n<p><b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p>\n<p>Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e215b21ca0b3be5a5e0e7b62e36fb5f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>In my DCF model, I assume a revenue growth for the Y1 of 21.2%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 15% and I assume a terminal year growth rate of 1.48% (or the current yield on 10Y Treasury). The decision of using the current and not expected yield is due to the willingness to remain market neutral (perhaps you can use&nbsp;Goldman Sachs expectations&nbsp;of 1.9%). The current assumptions lead to revenues of $1,253,844 million in Y10.</p>\n<p>Along the road, I also assume an improving outlook for operating margins with the target operating margin of 13.2% (vs current restated operating margin of 9.03%). If the company will be able to meet this target, it will result in operating margins in Y10 of $163,097 million.</p>\n<p>Finally, in doing my estimates, I used a WACC of 5.75% and a sales to capital ratio (or how much the company is going to reinvest to keep its business growing) of 2.95.</p>\n<p>By putting it together, I obtain a DCF value of $3328/share.</p>\n<p><b>Monte Carlo Simulation</b></p>\n<p>Rather than showing you only my point estimates, which may be right but also may be wrong, let's use probability distributions for inputs. Simulations allow us to assess the impact of continuous risk (e.g., changes in operating margins). In particular, I would like to focus on what I consider the main inputs of interest to get a bigger picture of the risk in the company. Those inputs are:</p>\n<p><i>1. Revenue Growth:</i></p>\n<p>In my DCF analysis, I assumed an expected CAGR Y2-Y5 of 15% with lower rates going forward. This assumption lead to revenues in Y10 of $1,253,844 million. While it is a reasonable assumption, Amazon is full of surprises, and it may deliver a top line growth well above my expectations. In the latter, I see a possible scenario with a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 24%, resulting in Y10 revenues of $1,989,952 million. However, we all know that regulators represent a big risk for the company. According to&nbsp;WSJ sources, if the \"giant-tech bill\" will pass, the company may be forced to either split into two companies or spin off its private-label product businesses. This represents a big risk that may slow down Amazon's growth, which could translate into a growth rate of 6% (resulting in Y10 revenues of $764,723 million). To sum up, I will assume a uniform distribution with a maximum of 24% and a minimum of 6%. The results are displayed below (this simulation and the next one have been performed 10,000 times).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/893dff753c8ca210759feb31b3966a5c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"235\"><span>Source:Author's estimates</span></p>\n<p><i>2. Operating Margin</i>:</p>\n<p>Currently, Amazon has a restated operating margin of 9.03% TTM (vs not restated EBIT margin of 6.83%). In my DCF, I assumed a target operating margin of 13.2%. While this represents my most likely scenario for the company, I cannot close my eyes to the fact that, even if the company is improving its margins, it is following a very slow climb. Below, I display the non-restated EBIT margin for the last 5 years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d66fcb05f4254b15de278f016121ffa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"221\"><span>Source:SeekingAlpha.com</span></p>\n<p>However, as I stated at the beginning, Amazon is a disruptive company with the ability to do extraordinary things. For instance, AWS presents a current operating margin of 30% TTM and a revenue growth rate of 29.53% in 2020. A trend which is expected to continue, driven by improving outlook and with new partners joining the party. The last to join the party are Ferrari(NYSE:RACE)and Swisscom(OTCPK:SWZCF)who have chosen AWS as their&nbsp;preferred cloud partner.</p>\n<p>In 2020,according to Gartner, AWS generated revenue 2 times bigger than Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT). As stated by Gartner:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>The worldwide</i>&nbsp;\n <i>infrastructure as a service(IaaS) market grew 40.7% in 2020 to total $64.3 billion, up from $45.7 billion in 2019, according to Gartner, Inc. Amazon retained the No. 1 position in the IaaS market in 2020, followed by Microsoft, Alibaba, Google and Huawei... Amazon continued to lead the worldwide IaaS market with $26.2 billion of revenue in 2020 and 41% market share.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac00a17cbbd930ad6464a63f6d4f98eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>Source:Gartner.com</span></p>\n<p>Finally, to account for my concerns and beliefs, I will assume a triangular distribution with the following limits: the likeliest target operating margin of 13.2%, a maximum of 18.4%, and a minimum of 8% (close to the current company's EBIT margin). The results are displayed below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/054e2db392be500768de741516186013\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"237\"><span>Source:Author's estimates</span></p>\n<p><i>3. Cost of Capital:</i></p>\n<p>The last input of interest is the cost of capital. In doing my analysis, I estimated a cost of capital of 5.8% (with the current 10Y rate of 1.48 and an implied ERP of 4.54%). However, I may be wrong due to sector risk estimates or changes in the business mix (or both). To account for the possibility that I made some mistakes along the road, I will rely on a lognormal distribution with the most likely scenario of 5.8%. The results of the simulation are displayed below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7d51740fa35eb9aedbc58c4c49d96eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"235\"><span>Source:Author's estimates</span></p>\n<p>By putting all of this together, the simulations return the following results.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/139c89300706eab1e37dd1c992286d31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\"><span>Source:Author's estimates</span></p>\n<p>For completeness, I also display below the relative and cumulative frequency of the simulation.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af7a908e21b8678a775a3e1742161a7d\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"644\"><span>Source:Author's estimates</span></p>\n<p>By looking at the results, we can see that the 50th percentile or the median is equal to $3274, close to the expected DCF FV of $3328. While the algorithm-adjusted FV of $3576 is the 60th percentile in my simulations (note also the long right tail).</p>\n<p>Finally, simulation results give us an interesting insight into a potential exit point. I believe that an interesting take profit point may be within the 80th percentile, which implies a potential upside of 24.89%. Why within the 80th percentile? I believe that, after reaching the $2.0 trillion company status, we will see the last climb of euphoria before investors start to take profits.</p>\n<p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>Both the algorithm-adjusted fair value and the Monte Carlo simulation suggest and support the bullish rating. The results found suggest that the stock is currently undervalued and that the company has still more room to go. What may drive the price to go higher? Well, there are different factors that may drive it. One of those is for sure corporate news. For instance, the company may introduce new products or announce a stock split (For the latter, I think this is unlikely, at least not now). However, don't forget also the other side, the risks. There are many risks associated with being invested in the company, one of those is represented by antitrust and regulators.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Undervalued With Potential Upside Of 25%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Undervalued With Potential Upside Of 25%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-01 18:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437291-amazon-stock-amzn-undervalued-with-potential-upside-of-25-percent><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAmazon is a unique and growing company that uses its disruptive platform to disrupt any new business it enters.\nI initiate Amazon with a bullish rating and a fair value of $3576/share (vs. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437291-amazon-stock-amzn-undervalued-with-potential-upside-of-25-percent\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437291-amazon-stock-amzn-undervalued-with-potential-upside-of-25-percent","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113357649","content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon is a unique and growing company that uses its disruptive platform to disrupt any new business it enters.\nI initiate Amazon with a bullish rating and a fair value of $3576/share (vs. the current price of $3443/share).\nThe company's improving top line and bottom line performance (which is expected to continue) suggests that the stock is currently undervalued by 3.9%.\n\nDaria Nipot/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nCompany Overview\nAmazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), a $1.74 trillion company. This is the current market capitalization (as of 06/29/2021) of the company and this implies that it is currently 15.18% away from being a $2 trillion company, not bad no?\nAmazon is a unique and growing company that uses its disruptive platform to disrupt any new business it enters. For example, when Amazon announced the acquisition of Whole Foods, Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Kroger(NYSE:KR), Target(NYSE:TGT)took a nice hit in market value. I believe that the company will be able to keep delivering strong top line growth and continued growth in margins, fueled not only by the company's current business expansion but also by entering into new markets and new businesses.\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Amazon with a bullish rating and a fair value of $3576/share (vs. the current price of $3443/share). The FV is an algorithm-adjusted fair value (the algorithm takes into account fundamental and technical factors, such as DCF FV, momentum, etc.) and it implies that the stock is undervalued by 3.9%.\nTo compute the DCF FV, I used the trailing twelve-month numbers and I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. As with Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), I don't believe that Amazon's R&D is an operating expense, and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nCapitalizing on R&D expenses, we have now a more clear picture of the company (i.e. the restated operating margin is now 9.03% TTM vs the non-restated operating margin is 6.63% TTM).\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIn my DCF model, I assume a revenue growth for the Y1 of 21.2%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 15% and I assume a terminal year growth rate of 1.48% (or the current yield on 10Y Treasury). The decision of using the current and not expected yield is due to the willingness to remain market neutral (perhaps you can use Goldman Sachs expectations of 1.9%). The current assumptions lead to revenues of $1,253,844 million in Y10.\nAlong the road, I also assume an improving outlook for operating margins with the target operating margin of 13.2% (vs current restated operating margin of 9.03%). If the company will be able to meet this target, it will result in operating margins in Y10 of $163,097 million.\nFinally, in doing my estimates, I used a WACC of 5.75% and a sales to capital ratio (or how much the company is going to reinvest to keep its business growing) of 2.95.\nBy putting it together, I obtain a DCF value of $3328/share.\nMonte Carlo Simulation\nRather than showing you only my point estimates, which may be right but also may be wrong, let's use probability distributions for inputs. Simulations allow us to assess the impact of continuous risk (e.g., changes in operating margins). In particular, I would like to focus on what I consider the main inputs of interest to get a bigger picture of the risk in the company. Those inputs are:\n1. Revenue Growth:\nIn my DCF analysis, I assumed an expected CAGR Y2-Y5 of 15% with lower rates going forward. This assumption lead to revenues in Y10 of $1,253,844 million. While it is a reasonable assumption, Amazon is full of surprises, and it may deliver a top line growth well above my expectations. In the latter, I see a possible scenario with a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 24%, resulting in Y10 revenues of $1,989,952 million. However, we all know that regulators represent a big risk for the company. According to WSJ sources, if the \"giant-tech bill\" will pass, the company may be forced to either split into two companies or spin off its private-label product businesses. This represents a big risk that may slow down Amazon's growth, which could translate into a growth rate of 6% (resulting in Y10 revenues of $764,723 million). To sum up, I will assume a uniform distribution with a maximum of 24% and a minimum of 6%. The results are displayed below (this simulation and the next one have been performed 10,000 times).\nSource:Author's estimates\n2. Operating Margin:\nCurrently, Amazon has a restated operating margin of 9.03% TTM (vs not restated EBIT margin of 6.83%). In my DCF, I assumed a target operating margin of 13.2%. While this represents my most likely scenario for the company, I cannot close my eyes to the fact that, even if the company is improving its margins, it is following a very slow climb. Below, I display the non-restated EBIT margin for the last 5 years.\nSource:SeekingAlpha.com\nHowever, as I stated at the beginning, Amazon is a disruptive company with the ability to do extraordinary things. For instance, AWS presents a current operating margin of 30% TTM and a revenue growth rate of 29.53% in 2020. A trend which is expected to continue, driven by improving outlook and with new partners joining the party. The last to join the party are Ferrari(NYSE:RACE)and Swisscom(OTCPK:SWZCF)who have chosen AWS as their preferred cloud partner.\nIn 2020,according to Gartner, AWS generated revenue 2 times bigger than Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT). As stated by Gartner:\n\nThe worldwide \n infrastructure as a service(IaaS) market grew 40.7% in 2020 to total $64.3 billion, up from $45.7 billion in 2019, according to Gartner, Inc. Amazon retained the No. 1 position in the IaaS market in 2020, followed by Microsoft, Alibaba, Google and Huawei... Amazon continued to lead the worldwide IaaS market with $26.2 billion of revenue in 2020 and 41% market share.\n\nSource:Gartner.com\nFinally, to account for my concerns and beliefs, I will assume a triangular distribution with the following limits: the likeliest target operating margin of 13.2%, a maximum of 18.4%, and a minimum of 8% (close to the current company's EBIT margin). The results are displayed below.\nSource:Author's estimates\n3. Cost of Capital:\nThe last input of interest is the cost of capital. In doing my analysis, I estimated a cost of capital of 5.8% (with the current 10Y rate of 1.48 and an implied ERP of 4.54%). However, I may be wrong due to sector risk estimates or changes in the business mix (or both). To account for the possibility that I made some mistakes along the road, I will rely on a lognormal distribution with the most likely scenario of 5.8%. The results of the simulation are displayed below.\nSource:Author's estimates\nBy putting all of this together, the simulations return the following results.\nSource:Author's estimates\nFor completeness, I also display below the relative and cumulative frequency of the simulation.\nSource:Author's estimates\nBy looking at the results, we can see that the 50th percentile or the median is equal to $3274, close to the expected DCF FV of $3328. While the algorithm-adjusted FV of $3576 is the 60th percentile in my simulations (note also the long right tail).\nFinally, simulation results give us an interesting insight into a potential exit point. I believe that an interesting take profit point may be within the 80th percentile, which implies a potential upside of 24.89%. Why within the 80th percentile? I believe that, after reaching the $2.0 trillion company status, we will see the last climb of euphoria before investors start to take profits.\nFinal Thoughts\nBoth the algorithm-adjusted fair value and the Monte Carlo simulation suggest and support the bullish rating. The results found suggest that the stock is currently undervalued and that the company has still more room to go. What may drive the price to go higher? Well, there are different factors that may drive it. One of those is for sure corporate news. For instance, the company may introduce new products or announce a stock split (For the latter, I think this is unlikely, at least not now). However, don't forget also the other side, the risks. There are many risks associated with being invested in the company, one of those is represented by antitrust and regulators.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":601,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9037529821,"gmtCreate":1648144788412,"gmtModify":1676534309074,"author":{"id":"3577450970953718","authorId":"3577450970953718","name":"Minhoshuting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ab92b2914bd064ccd8620ef1d430ff","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577450970953718","authorIdStr":"3577450970953718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037529821","repostId":"2221174430","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2221174430","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1648136014,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2221174430?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-24 23:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Want to Retire With $1 Million? Invest $250,000 in These Tech Stocks and Wait 10 Years (or Less)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2221174430","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"By investing in businesses with strong competitive advantages, you can tap into growth that outpaces the market.","content":"<div>\n<p>Even amid today's downturn, the stock market continues to offer a proven path to financial independence. Over the last decade, the S&P 500 has generated a total return of 286%, meaning you could have ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/23/want-1-million-invest-250000-in-these-tech-stocks/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Want to Retire With $1 Million? Invest $250,000 in These Tech Stocks and Wait 10 Years (or Less)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWant to Retire With $1 Million? Invest $250,000 in These Tech Stocks and Wait 10 Years (or Less)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-24 23:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/23/want-1-million-invest-250000-in-these-tech-stocks/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Even amid today's downturn, the stock market continues to offer a proven path to financial independence. Over the last decade, the S&P 500 has generated a total return of 286%, meaning you could have ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/23/want-1-million-invest-250000-in-these-tech-stocks/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4577":"网络游戏","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4538":"云计算","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","OKTA":"Okta Inc.","MSFT":"微软","CRM":"赛富时","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","HUBS":"HubSpot","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4576":"AR","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4528":"SaaS概念"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/23/want-1-million-invest-250000-in-these-tech-stocks/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2221174430","content_text":"Even amid today's downturn, the stock market continues to offer a proven path to financial independence. Over the last decade, the S&P 500 has generated a total return of 286%, meaning you could have tripled your money by simply investing in an exchange traded fund that tracks the popular index.That said, greater rewards await savvy investors who are willing to research and build a diversified portfolio of individual stocks. For those interested in long-term growth, tech standouts HubSpot ( HUBS 3.21% ) and Okta ( OKTA -1.76% ) look like smart investments. Both have the potential to quadruple in value over the next 10 years, growing at a pace that would turn an initial investment of $250,000 split evenly between these stocks into a collective $1 million.What makes these companies ready for such monster growth? Let's take a look.HubSpot: Customer relationship managementHubSpot provides customer relationship management (CRM) software, offering tools that drive productivity across marketing, sales, customer service, and operations. The HubSpot app marketplace lists over 1,000 integrations that extend the functionality of its CRM suite, connecting with social media apps like Meta Platforms' Instagram, commerce software like Shopify, and email systems like Microsoft ( MSFT 1.64% ) Outlook.Of course, HubSpot faces intense competition from other CRM vendors like Salesforce, which generated 20 times more revenue than HubSpot over the last 12 months. But HubSpot's advantage lies in the quickly growing marketing automation space, where it holds nearly 34% market share. For context, the marketing automation industry was worth $3.6 billion in 2020, and is expected to grow threefold in the next five years. That edge could certainly help HubSpot grow over the next decade. But more immediately, this advantage in marketing automation gives HubSpot a foothold in the broader CRM industry, allowing the company to execute its land-and-expand growth strategy.As of fourth quarter 2021, 60% of customers use multiple HubSpot products, compared to 34% in 2017. This uptick in adoption has translated into strong financial results. In 2021, revenue rose 47% to $1.3 billion, and the company generated free cash flow of $203.3 million, up from $79.1 million the year prior. Analysts believe there's even more room for HubSpot to grow: Brad Sills of Bank of America Securities ( BAC 3.13% ) puts HubSpot's addressable market at $87 billion.To that end, HubSpot continues to innovate and expand its capabilities. Last year, it partnered with Stripe to launch HubSpot Payments, a tool that streamlines sales by enabling digital payments directly through its CRM platform. HubSpot also launched Operations Hub, a software product that helps operations teams sync data between applications and automate various business processes.Here's the bottom line: HubSpot helps its clients provide a great consumer experience across the entire customer lifecycle. That value proposition resonates with businesses in virtually every industry. More importantly, HubSpot has achieved a strong competitive position, especially in marketing automation software, and that tailwind should be a growth driver in the years ahead. In fact, I think this $23 billion business could grow fourfold to $92 billion over the next decade.Okta: CybersecurityOkta helps organizations protect sensitive applications and data. Its primary offering, Okta Identity Cloud, is a suite of identity and access management (IAM) tools that securely connects users to necessary technologies. Okta uses artificial intelligence to continuously analyze contextual signals (such as user, device, and location) to score the risk associated with each sign-in attempt. Following this formula, the platform only authenticates and authorizes appropriate users. Given the growing need for cybersecurity -- the number of Internet of Things cyberattacks alone is expected to double by 2025 -- this stock looks like a prime candidate for fourfold returns.Okta's technology is highly versatile and addresses both workforce and customer identity use cases. Okta Identity Cloud integrates with over 7,000 different software products and infrastructure providers. Okta also provides developer tools that allow clients to incorporate Okta technology into other applications. Unlike rivals such as Microsoft, Okta is infrastructure-agnostic; its identity tools aren't associated with a specific cloud vendor and the company has no incentive to push clients toward particular technologies. This neutrality gives Okta a significant edge, spurring Gartner and Forrester Research to recognize the company as a leader in the IAM space.Those accolades came alongside solid financial performance. In the past year, revenue soared 56% to $1.3 billion, and the company generated positive free cash flow of $87 million. This free cash flow represents a 22% drop compared to the year prior, due in large part to expenses associated with Okta's acquisition of Auth0. However, that acquisition strengthens Okta's position in the customer identity space. While Okta already had an impressive ecosystem of pre-built integrations, Auth0's developer tools make its easy to embed IAM solutions into any application, including consumer-facing ones.Last year, Okta announced the launch of two new products: Identity Governance, which simplifies reporting and automates workflows, and Privileged Access, which ensures heightened protection of highly valuable accounts. Collectively, these new products will strengthen Okta's position in the workforce identity space, pushing the company's addressable market to $80 billion. Both products are set to launch in first quarter 2022, and management will report on progress later in the year. For now, though, these announcements highlight Okta's ambitious growth strategy and underscore its commitment to industry expansion.In short, Okta has carved out a leadership position in the IAM industry, and through acquisition and innovation, management is working to strengthen that position. More broadly, cybersecurity will only become more critical as the number of connected devices continues to proliferate. That's why I think this growth stock -- which currently has a market cap of $27 billion -- could grow fourfold to $108 billion over the next decade.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"OKTA":0.9,"CRM":1,"IAM":1,"MSFT":0.87,"HUBS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":784,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":863439845,"gmtCreate":1632410470387,"gmtModify":1676530776919,"author":{"id":"3577450970953718","authorId":"3577450970953718","name":"Minhoshuting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ab92b2914bd064ccd8620ef1d430ff","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577450970953718","authorIdStr":"3577450970953718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/863439845","repostId":"1162776746","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162776746","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632407985,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162776746?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-23 22:39","market":"uk","language":"en","title":"BOE Opens The Door for 2021 Rate Hike as Inflation Seen Above 4%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162776746","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Ramsden switches to join Saunders in push to end bond buying.\n‘Considerable uncertainties remain’ in","content":"<div>\n<p>Ramsden switches to join Saunders in push to end bond buying.\n‘Considerable uncertainties remain’ in U.K. outlook, BOE says.\n\nThe Bank of England raised the prospect of hiking interest rates as soon ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-23/boe-sees-more-of-a-case-for-tightening-as-ramsden-switches-vote?srnd=markets-vp\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BOE Opens The Door for 2021 Rate Hike as Inflation Seen Above 4%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBOE Opens The Door for 2021 Rate Hike as Inflation Seen Above 4%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-23 22:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-23/boe-sees-more-of-a-case-for-tightening-as-ramsden-switches-vote?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Ramsden switches to join Saunders in push to end bond buying.\n‘Considerable uncertainties remain’ in U.K. outlook, BOE says.\n\nThe Bank of England raised the prospect of hiking interest rates as soon ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-23/boe-sees-more-of-a-case-for-tightening-as-ramsden-switches-vote?srnd=markets-vp\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-23/boe-sees-more-of-a-case-for-tightening-as-ramsden-switches-vote?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162776746","content_text":"Ramsden switches to join Saunders in push to end bond buying.\n‘Considerable uncertainties remain’ in U.K. outlook, BOE says.\n\nThe Bank of England raised the prospect of hiking interest rates as soon as November to contain a surge in inflation, which it now expects will exceed 4% following a spike in energy prices.\nNoting the “modest tightening” in policy foreseen over its forecast horizon in August, “some developments during the intervening period appear to have strengthened that case, although considerable uncertainties remain,” the Monetary Policy Committee said in a statement on Thursday.\nThe central bank also agreed that any future tightening should start with an interest-rate increase, even if that “became appropriate” before its bond-buying program finishes around the end of the year. Two of the nine MPC members pushed to end those purchases early, with Dave Ramsden making his first dissenting vote in in four years on the panel.\n“This appears to open the door to a rate rise by the end of this year, even while the BOE is injecting net stimulus into the economy via” quantitative easing, said Liz Martins, a senior economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in London. “The MPC does not want to rule out swift tightening if inflationary pressures intensify further.”\nThe next MPC meeting is set for Nov. 4.\nThe pound rallied and government bonds fell as investors reacted to a decision that puts the BOE in the more hawkish camp of advanced-world central banks in a pivotal week. On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced that officials may taper bond buying soon, and Norway raised its interest rate on Thursday.\nThe U.K. central bank is trying to tame inflation that accelerated well beyond its forecasts over the summer, reaching 3.2% last month. Its new focus is enabled by stronger-than-expected jobs data that show unemployment will peak well below worst-case scenarios predicted at the onset of the pandemic.\nWhile the BOE targets inflation of 2%, officials said the rate may temporarily exceed 4% in the final three months of the year. That’s slightly more than predicted in August.\nSpiking gas costs that have caused turmoil in U.K. energy markets “could represent a significant upside risk,” and also mean that consumer-price increases double the target until the second quarter of 2022, the MPC added.\nAllan Monks, an economist atJPMorgan Chase & Co., said the tone of the statement was more “hawkish than expected,” with policy makers attaching little weight to recent disappointing growth data.\nSignaling it could raise rates even before bond purchases expire the committee also appears to be “creating space to potentially hike as soon as November or December, something which we have previously attached a low probability to,” he said.\n\n “We still expect the labor market and a softer growth outlook to stay the BOE’s hand for longer than financial markets expect. But it now looks like a first hike will come in May, six months earlier than we forecast prior to the decision.”\n\n\n -- Dan Hanson, senior U.K. economist. Clickherefor full REACT.\n\nTraders now are pricing a 15-basis-point rate increase in February, compared with May previously. The pound rallied as much as 0.7%, while 10-year gilt yields rose by the most in a week.\nThe BOE kept its own benchmark unchanged at a record-low 0.1%, while its stock of asset purchases is set to total 895 billion pounds ($1.2 trillion) by the end of this year in line with expectations. Deputy Governor Ramsden joined Michael Saunders in pushing to end bond purchases as soon as possible.\n“There was increasing evidence from a range of global and domestic cost and price indicators that inflationary pressures were likely to persist,” the minutes said. “These members judged that, with the existing policy stance, inflation was likely to remain above the 2% target in the medium term.”\nThe decision was also notable for the participation of the MPC’s two newest members, who both voted with the majority on this occassion. Huw Pill, a formerGoldman Sachs Group Inc.analyst, replaced Andy Haldane as chief economist, and Catherine Mann, a one-time chief economist of the OECD, took up a post vacated by Gertjan Vlieghe.\nWhile the BOE’s more hawkish rhetoric follows a noticeable spike in inflation, it also comes against the backdrop of an economic recovery that has shown signs of losing steam amid supply bottlenecks and labor shortages.\nData released on Thursday showed the U.K. had about 5.8% of its workforce on furlough at the start of this month even though that support program is set to expire Sept. 30. September is also shaping up to be the weakest month for private-sector activity since the height of the winter lockdown,IHS Markitsaid on Thursday.\n“Based on the macro numbers, I don’t understand how the U.K. can justify being first for a hike,” said Fabrice Montagne, an economist atBarclays Plc.“The U.S. and Europe are ahead in terms of recovery. We might get a hike but it will be a very painful hike to deliver.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":590,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155307995,"gmtCreate":1625372889517,"gmtModify":1703740976649,"author":{"id":"3577450970953718","authorId":"3577450970953718","name":"Minhoshuting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ab92b2914bd064ccd8620ef1d430ff","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577450970953718","authorIdStr":"3577450970953718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment pls","listText":"Like n comment pls","text":"Like n comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/155307995","repostId":"1160702483","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":514,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171352314,"gmtCreate":1626707910438,"gmtModify":1703763819146,"author":{"id":"3577450970953718","authorId":"3577450970953718","name":"Minhoshuting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ab92b2914bd064ccd8620ef1d430ff","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577450970953718","authorIdStr":"3577450970953718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment pls","listText":"Comment pls","text":"Comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171352314","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146536243?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p>\n<p>The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p>\n<p>But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p>\n<p>Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p>\n<p>Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p>\n<p>If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p>\n<p>Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p>\n<p>Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p>\n<p>All this has a number of implications:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>\n <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>\n <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>\n <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 16:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle '...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":746,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9024716762,"gmtCreate":1653923273656,"gmtModify":1676535363322,"author":{"id":"3577450970953718","authorId":"3577450970953718","name":"Minhoshuting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ab92b2914bd064ccd8620ef1d430ff","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577450970953718","authorIdStr":"3577450970953718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9024716762","repostId":"2239151510","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2239151510","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1653921418,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2239151510?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-30 22:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Stocks to Avoid This Week: GameStop, ChargePoint and Conn's","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2239151510","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These investments seem pretty vulnerable right now.","content":"<div>\n<p>My \"three stocks to avoid\" column last week didn't pan out. All three investments I figured would be in for a rough few trading days moved sharply higher. The three names I thought were going to move ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/30/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Stocks to Avoid This Week: GameStop, ChargePoint and Conn's</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Stocks to Avoid This Week: GameStop, ChargePoint and Conn's\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-30 22:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/30/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>My \"three stocks to avoid\" column last week didn't pan out. All three investments I figured would be in for a rough few trading days moved sharply higher. The three names I thought were going to move ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/30/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站","CHPT":"ChargePoint Holdings Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/30/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2239151510","content_text":"My \"three stocks to avoid\" column last week didn't pan out. All three investments I figured would be in for a rough few trading days moved sharply higher. The three names I thought were going to move lower for the week -- Alibaba, Tesla, and Nordstrom -- finished up 8%, 14%, and 25%, respectively, averaging out to a 15.7% gain. Ouch!The S&P 500 soared 6.6% for the week, but naturally the stocks I figured would fare worse did not. I was wrong, but I have still been right in 22 of the past 32 weeks.I see GameStop (GME 6.81%), ChargePoint (CHPT 13.89%), and Conn's (CONN -1.53%) as stocks you may want to consider steering clear of this week. Let's go over my near-term concerns with all three investments.Image source: Getty Images.GameStopThe original meme stock is rolling again. Shares of the video game retailer soared 54% -- yes, 54% -- in the last three trading days. What can possibly get in the way of a meme stock mowing down its short sellers? Earnings season. GameStop shares have declined the trading day after reporting earnings in 11 of the past 14 quarters. Some of the slides have been fairly substantial, even last year when GameStop was off to the races. The retailer will peel back the curtain on its fiscal first quarter results on Wednesday afternoon.GameStop's performance when it has fresh financials to put out has been sobering. It has posted a larger-than-expected loss for three consecutive quarters. The $1.32 billion analysts are forecasting in revenue is a small year-over-year increase, but 15% below its top-line results three years ago in its last pre-pandemic fiscal first quarter. More importantly, the stock was in the single digits at the time.GameStop is making some interesting moves in NFTs and crypto, but those markets have also been hit hard in recent months. GameStop is going to need a strong report to justify last week's gains. History tells us that you probably don't want to bet on that.ChargePointThere's no doubt that the electric-vehicle market will have years of explosive growth, but it's probably too early to bet on the growing number of companies that are providing charging stations. It could be a race to the bottom, and players building out their networks now may never turn a profit. Analysts don't see ChargePoint in the black until 2026, and by then the market will probably be far more cutthroat than it is now.ChargePoint reports fresh financials after Tuesday's market close. Momentum hasn't been kind. It has posted larger losses than analysts were targeting in back-to-back quarters. Wall Street pros have been widening their expected deficits for the quarter it will discuss on Tuesday as well as the current fiscal year.Conn'sLet's close out the list with yet another name reporting quarterly results this week. Wednesday morning is when Conn's steps up to the plate. The big-box retailer that sells furniture, appliances, and consumer electronics could be in for a rough financial update. We've already seen a few retailers warn that guests have been shifting their spending away form big-ticket home items. Conn's also had the problematic distinction of missing Wall Street estimates on both ends of its income statement last time out.The stock tumbled 26% in the four trading days following its last report. Is there any reason to expect that Conn's will fare any better in a climate that has grown even more challenging? It could be a tough week for the retailer.It's going to be a bumpy road for some of these investments. If you're looking for safe stocks, you aren't likely to find them in GameStop, ChargePoint, or Conn's this week.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CHPT":0.9,"GME":0.9,"CONN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":711,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9033553925,"gmtCreate":1646319907671,"gmtModify":1676534116794,"author":{"id":"3577450970953718","authorId":"3577450970953718","name":"Minhoshuting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ab92b2914bd064ccd8620ef1d430ff","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577450970953718","authorIdStr":"3577450970953718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"haha","listText":"haha","text":"haha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9033553925","repostId":"1191803969","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":726,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}