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2021-06-27

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The National Carbon Trading Market is about to open, and institutions point out five investment directions

2021-07-27

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Tesla's $23 million asset impairment in Bitcoin is about to fall below cost line

2022-02-10

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2022-03-13

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2021-05-15

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How did the gurus respond to the stock market decline?

2021-06-26

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2022-02-26

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2021-04-25

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2021-05-06

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2021-05-27

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go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9946991216","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9948621280,"gmtCreate":1680702024840,"gmtModify":1680702027665,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Tigr nice event!!! Good good good&nbsp;","listText":"Tigr nice event!!! Good good good&nbsp;","text":"Tigr nice event!!! Good good good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9948621280","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3580,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9948621004,"gmtCreate":1680701951409,"gmtModify":1680701954968,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice event&nbsp;","listText":"Nice event&nbsp;","text":"Nice event","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9948621004","repostId":"9943960936","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9943960936,"gmtCreate":1679046534725,"gmtModify":1680580626622,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667667103859","authorIdStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"【Game】Easter Egg Hunting with Tiger, Win Disney Shares and USD 120 Voucher","htmlText":"🐰🌷 Hop into the Easter spirit and join our \"Tiger's Egg Hunting\" game! 🎉Stand to win free Disney stocks and a USD 120 cash voucher!🎁🌟Our interactive Easter game is open to Tigers, and it's so easy to play! Simply jump and catch the egg, and you could be a lucky winner. 🐇That's not all. You can also invite your friends to join in the fun to earn more points. Plus, you can challenge your friends for a race up the leaderboard. Let's fly to the moon together!Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win BIG! Join the game now and hop on your way to victory. 🥳🐣<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2023/easter/?adcode=20230316162207#/\" target=\"_blank\">Join our Easter campaign now</a>","listText":"🐰🌷 Hop into the Easter spirit and join our \"Tiger's Egg Hunting\" game! 🎉Stand to win free Disney stocks and a USD 120 cash voucher!🎁🌟Our interactive Easter game is open to Tigers, and it's so easy to play! Simply jump and catch the egg, and you could be a lucky winner. 🐇That's not all. You can also invite your friends to join in the fun to earn more points. Plus, you can challenge your friends for a race up the leaderboard. Let's fly to the moon together!Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win BIG! Join the game now and hop on your way to victory. 🥳🐣<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2023/easter/?adcode=20230316162207#/\" target=\"_blank\">Join our Easter campaign now</a>","text":"🐰🌷 Hop into the Easter spirit and join our \"Tiger's Egg Hunting\" game! 🎉Stand to win free Disney stocks and a USD 120 cash voucher!🎁🌟Our interactive Easter game is open to Tigers, and it's so easy to play! Simply jump and catch the egg, and you could be a lucky winner. 🐇That's not all. You can also invite your friends to join in the fun to earn more points. Plus, you can challenge your friends for a race up the leaderboard. Let's fly to the moon together!Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win BIG! Join the game now and hop on your way to victory. 🥳🐣Join our Easter campaign now","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c90a7371a3bcd1e6c552d2aa23f72c33","width":"1200","height":"630"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943960936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3525,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9022823188,"gmtCreate":1653519705145,"gmtModify":1676535294756,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"oh","listText":"oh","text":"oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022823188","repostId":"1189522697","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189522697","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653488770,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1189522697?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-25 22:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"When Will U.S. Inflation Return? Keep an eye on these 9 indicators","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189522697","media":"金十数据","summary":"经济学家强调，当前的物价压力预示着更长期的走势。美国通货膨胀接近40年来的最高水平，这给家庭、企业和政府决策者带来了挑战。异常的价格上涨浪潮是否已接近峰值？如果是这样的话，通胀将会在多长的时间内放缓？","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Economists emphasize that current price pressures signal a longer-term trend.</p><p>U.S. inflation is nearing its highest level in 40 years, creating challenges for households, businesses and government policymakers. Is the unusual wave of price increases nearing its peak? If so, for how long will inflation slow? Most importantly, where will inflation stabilize in the long run?</p><p>Economists give several signals to anticipate U.S. inflation:</p><p><b>1. Short-term inflation momentum</b></p><p>The most watched inflation data is the year-over-year growth of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures how quickly prices have risen in a month compared to the same period a year earlier. Lou Crandall, chief analyst at Wrightson ICAP, said that while the metric helps gauge longer-term inflation trends, it may be overly focused on past inflation levels. He and other economists painted the CPI change from three months ago and the change from the same period last year in the following chart, which better reflects the recent inflation trend.</p><p>Changes in CPI from 3 months ago and from the same period last year:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99823906abcd72310979ec74003f3c92\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Potential inflation</b></p><p>These short-term factors of rising oil or food prices do not reflect overall price pressures in the economy. But economists have worked out data that identifies inflation in the economy as a whole.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Alex Lin, senior U.S. economist at Global Research, suggests paying attention to the 16% trimmed-mean CPI of the Cleveland Fed. This inflation measure eliminates the most extreme price movements and leaves most of the middle price movements. These data can better explain how inflation forms.</p><p>Year-over-year CPI growth vs. Cleveland Fed's adjusted year-over-year CPI growth:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b088341c45c0fd11fe1406a4e8f48de4\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>3、<b>Commodity spree over</b></p><p>Early in the pandemic, demand for manufactured goods surged, while demand for services plummeted. At the same time, due to the disruption of supply chains related to the pandemic, supply and demand are imbalanced, resulting in severe shortages of commodities and rising prices. When consumers return to normal consumption of goods and services, this may reduce the pressure on product prices. One way to gauge whether this is happening is to track changes in balances across two broad categories of spending in the Commerce Department's monthly personal consumption spending report.</p><p>Comparison of goods consumption versus service consumption, adjusted for inflation:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/270b1871372a6120df55fcd89d4847ff\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>4、<b>An overheated labor market</b>Alex Lin said it would be important to focus on wage growth as consumers switch back to spending in services, which tend to rely more on labor than goods production. He said:</p><p>\"If you plot trends over time, you see that wages and services inflation go hand in hand.\" He recommends paying close attention to the Atlanta Fed's wage tracker system, which also allows users to filter data by wage level, demographic group and other factors. A more useful comparison is the number of job hunters and the number of workers staying put.</p><p>12-month moving average of median annual wage growth:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eeb55d3780f1a75410c4e710a744178\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Rental costs</b></p><p>Rapid wage increases can increase Americans' incomes and push up the price of everything — especially the cost of housing. Housing prices are key to understanding where inflation is headed, as housing costs account for nearly a third of CPI. Aichi Amemiya, U.S. economist at Nomura Securities, recommends watching<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">Zillow</a>And Apartment List's rent estimates to better understand housing cost trends.</p><p>Comparison of year-on-year growth rates of three rent indicators:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7865239de5d3319c7e85cf6b6c351fc\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>6. The automobile market is the key</b></p><p>In the past year, prices in the auto market accounted for a large percentage of overall inflation, Amemiya said. Cars and parts contributed 1.3 percentage points to April's 8.3% CPI growth. Of these, used cars are the biggest factor. For inflation to fall significantly, used car prices have to come down. Amemiya recommends paying attention to Manheim's used car value index, which tends to be a month or two ahead of the CPI series.</p><p>Contribution of automobiles and parts to the year-on-year growth of CPI:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d21ffc47189383c94c23930e8e7a85f\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Parts vulnerable to the epidemic</b>Particularly the tourism industry – particularly airfares, hotels and car rentals – has been vulnerable to the significant impact of the pandemic. One way to measure consumer attitudes toward the pandemic is through the number of travelers at airport checkpoints published by the U.S. Transportation Safety Administration, Amemiya said. Data is updated daily and close to real-time metrics.</p><p>Number of passengers at airport checkpoints (7-day moving average):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d59adc1f7615ed86d2db75f5978397\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>8. Oil futures</b></p><p>Soaring energy prices have been a major contributor to inflation over the past year, while oil prices have hit record highs this year. Looking at the price of U.S. crude oil futures contracts gives a rough idea of what oil prices are likely to reach in a few months or a year. In the short term,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">U.S. Energy</a>The Information Agency (EIA) updates retail gasoline prices on a weekly basis. The American Automobile Association (AAA) provides gas prices by state and nationwide on a daily basis.</p><p>U.S. Regular Gasoline, All Gasoline Retail Prices:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79d3825a8b16896d8b12c7432e40c8c0\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>9. Inflation expectations</b>Once people start noticing inflation, it inflates itself. Here's why so-called inflation expectations are worth paying attention to, says Alex Lin. The median inflation expectations for the next five to 10 years in the University of Michigan's monthly consumer survey are a regrettably good measure of inflation expectations. He said,</p><p>\"We're already seeing some kind of rebound — they're at levels that seem to be in line with the 2% inflation rate the Fed is trying to set, but if they continue to climb, it will cause more panic.\" Consumers' inflation expectations over the next 5-10 years:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d59adc1f7615ed86d2db75f5978397\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When Will U.S. Inflation Return? Keep an eye on these 9 indicators</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen Will U.S. Inflation Return? Keep an eye on these 9 indicators\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-25 22:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Economists emphasize that current price pressures signal a longer-term trend.</p><p>U.S. inflation is nearing its highest level in 40 years, creating challenges for households, businesses and government policymakers. Is the unusual wave of price increases nearing its peak? If so, for how long will inflation slow? Most importantly, where will inflation stabilize in the long run?</p><p>Economists give several signals to anticipate U.S. inflation:</p><p><b>1. Short-term inflation momentum</b></p><p>The most watched inflation data is the year-over-year growth of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures how quickly prices have risen in a month compared to the same period a year earlier. Lou Crandall, chief analyst at Wrightson ICAP, said that while the metric helps gauge longer-term inflation trends, it may be overly focused on past inflation levels. He and other economists painted the CPI change from three months ago and the change from the same period last year in the following chart, which better reflects the recent inflation trend.</p><p>Changes in CPI from 3 months ago and from the same period last year:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99823906abcd72310979ec74003f3c92\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Potential inflation</b></p><p>These short-term factors of rising oil or food prices do not reflect overall price pressures in the economy. But economists have worked out data that identifies inflation in the economy as a whole.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Alex Lin, senior U.S. economist at Global Research, suggests paying attention to the 16% trimmed-mean CPI of the Cleveland Fed. This inflation measure eliminates the most extreme price movements and leaves most of the middle price movements. These data can better explain how inflation forms.</p><p>Year-over-year CPI growth vs. Cleveland Fed's adjusted year-over-year CPI growth:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b088341c45c0fd11fe1406a4e8f48de4\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>3、<b>Commodity spree over</b></p><p>Early in the pandemic, demand for manufactured goods surged, while demand for services plummeted. At the same time, due to the disruption of supply chains related to the pandemic, supply and demand are imbalanced, resulting in severe shortages of commodities and rising prices. When consumers return to normal consumption of goods and services, this may reduce the pressure on product prices. One way to gauge whether this is happening is to track changes in balances across two broad categories of spending in the Commerce Department's monthly personal consumption spending report.</p><p>Comparison of goods consumption versus service consumption, adjusted for inflation:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/270b1871372a6120df55fcd89d4847ff\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>4、<b>An overheated labor market</b>Alex Lin said it would be important to focus on wage growth as consumers switch back to spending in services, which tend to rely more on labor than goods production. He said:</p><p>\"If you plot trends over time, you see that wages and services inflation go hand in hand.\" He recommends paying close attention to the Atlanta Fed's wage tracker system, which also allows users to filter data by wage level, demographic group and other factors. A more useful comparison is the number of job hunters and the number of workers staying put.</p><p>12-month moving average of median annual wage growth:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eeb55d3780f1a75410c4e710a744178\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Rental costs</b></p><p>Rapid wage increases can increase Americans' incomes and push up the price of everything — especially the cost of housing. Housing prices are key to understanding where inflation is headed, as housing costs account for nearly a third of CPI. Aichi Amemiya, U.S. economist at Nomura Securities, recommends watching<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">Zillow</a>And Apartment List's rent estimates to better understand housing cost trends.</p><p>Comparison of year-on-year growth rates of three rent indicators:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7865239de5d3319c7e85cf6b6c351fc\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>6. The automobile market is the key</b></p><p>In the past year, prices in the auto market accounted for a large percentage of overall inflation, Amemiya said. Cars and parts contributed 1.3 percentage points to April's 8.3% CPI growth. Of these, used cars are the biggest factor. For inflation to fall significantly, used car prices have to come down. Amemiya recommends paying attention to Manheim's used car value index, which tends to be a month or two ahead of the CPI series.</p><p>Contribution of automobiles and parts to the year-on-year growth of CPI:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d21ffc47189383c94c23930e8e7a85f\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Parts vulnerable to the epidemic</b>Particularly the tourism industry – particularly airfares, hotels and car rentals – has been vulnerable to the significant impact of the pandemic. One way to measure consumer attitudes toward the pandemic is through the number of travelers at airport checkpoints published by the U.S. Transportation Safety Administration, Amemiya said. Data is updated daily and close to real-time metrics.</p><p>Number of passengers at airport checkpoints (7-day moving average):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d59adc1f7615ed86d2db75f5978397\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>8. Oil futures</b></p><p>Soaring energy prices have been a major contributor to inflation over the past year, while oil prices have hit record highs this year. Looking at the price of U.S. crude oil futures contracts gives a rough idea of what oil prices are likely to reach in a few months or a year. In the short term,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">U.S. Energy</a>The Information Agency (EIA) updates retail gasoline prices on a weekly basis. The American Automobile Association (AAA) provides gas prices by state and nationwide on a daily basis.</p><p>U.S. Regular Gasoline, All Gasoline Retail Prices:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79d3825a8b16896d8b12c7432e40c8c0\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>9. Inflation expectations</b>Once people start noticing inflation, it inflates itself. Here's why so-called inflation expectations are worth paying attention to, says Alex Lin. The median inflation expectations for the next five to 10 years in the University of Michigan's monthly consumer survey are a regrettably good measure of inflation expectations. He said,</p><p>\"We're already seeing some kind of rebound — they're at levels that seem to be in line with the 2% inflation rate the Fed is trying to set, but if they continue to climb, it will cause more panic.\" Consumers' inflation expectations over the next 5-10 years:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d59adc1f7615ed86d2db75f5978397\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/94629\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c318bcd91a109139b7d70c76c30bb154","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/94629","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189522697","content_text":"经济学家强调，当前的物价压力预示着更长期的走势。美国通货膨胀接近40年来的最高水平，这给家庭、企业和政府决策者带来了挑战。异常的价格上涨浪潮是否已接近峰值？如果是这样的话，通胀将会在多长的时间内放缓？最重要的是，从长期来看，通胀会在哪个位置稳定下来?经济学家给出几个信号用来预期美国通胀：1、短期通胀势头最受关注的通胀数据是消费者价格指数（CPI）的同比增速，该指数衡量了一个月与上年同期相比的物价上涨速度。Wrightson ICAP首席分析师Lou Crandall表示，尽管该指标有助于衡量较长期的通胀趋势，但可能过度关注过去的通胀水平。他和其他经济学家将CPI较3个月前的变化和较去年同期的变化描绘在了下图，前者更能体现出近期的通胀趋势。CPI较3个月前和较去年同期的变化：2、潜在通胀油价或食品价格上涨的这些短期因素，不能反映经济中整体的价格压力。但经济学家们已经研究出能识别整体经济通胀的数据。美国银行Global Research高级美国经济学家Alex Lin建议关注克利夫兰联储16%的截尾平均CPI（16% trimmed-mean CPI），该通胀指标剔除了最极端的价格变动，留下了中间大部分的价格变动，这些数据能更好地解释通胀如何形成的。CPI同比增速vs克利夫兰联储经调整后的CPI同比增速：3、大宗商品狂欢结束疫情的早期，人们对制成品的需求激增，而对服务的需求急剧下降。同时，也因与疫情有关的供应链中断，供需失衡，造成商品严重短缺和价格上涨。当消费者回归到正常的商品、服务消费后，这可能会降低产品价格的压力。衡量这种情况是否发生的一种方法是，跟踪商务部月度个人消费支出报告中两大类支出的余额变化。经通胀调整后，商品消费与服务消费的比较：4、过热的劳动力市场Alex Lin表示，随着消费者重新转向服务业消费，关注工资增长将非常重要，因为服务业往往比商品生产更依赖劳动力。他表示：“如果你绘制一段时间的趋势图，你会发现工资和服务业通胀相辅相成。”他建议密切关注亚特兰大联储的工资跟踪系统，该系统还允许用户按工资水平、人口统计群体和其他因素对数据进行筛选。一个比较有用的比较是跳槽者数量和留在原地的工作者数量。工资年增长中位数的12个月移动平均水平：5、租金成本工资的快速增长会增加了美国人的收入，推高了所有东西的价格——尤其是住房成本。住房价格是了解通胀走向的关键，因为住房成本占CPI的近三分之一。Nomura Securities的美国经济学家Aichi Amemiya建议关注Zillow的租金指数和Apartment List的租金预估数据，来更好地了解住房成本趋势。三种租金指标的同比增速对比：6、汽车市场是关键Amemiya表示，过去一年，汽车市场的价格占整体通胀中很大比例。4月份8.3%的CPI增长中，汽车和零部件贡献了1.3个百分点。其中，二手车是最大的因素。要想通胀大幅下降，二手车价格必须有所下降。Amemiya建议关注Manheim的二手车价值指数，该指数往往比CPI系列指数领先一两个月。汽车和零部件对CPI同比增速的贡献：7、易受疫情影响的部分易受疫情大幅影响的特别是旅游业——尤其是机票、酒店和汽车租赁。 Amemiya表示，衡量消费者对疫情态度的一种方法是通过美国交通安全管理局公布的机场检查站的旅客数量。数据每天更新且接近于实时指标。机场检查站的旅客数量（7日移动平均数）：8、石油期货飙升的能源价格是过去一年通货膨胀的主要原因，而油价在今年创下了历史新高。观察美国原油期货合约的价格，可以大致看出几个月或一年后油价可能会达到什么水平。短期来看，美国能源信息署（EIA）每周会更新汽油零售价格。美国汽车协会（AAA）每日会提供各州和全国范围内的汽油价格。美国普通汽油，所有汽油零售价格：9、通胀预期一旦人们开始注意到通货膨胀，它就会自我膨胀。Alex Lin说道，这就是为什么所谓的通胀预期值得关注的原因。密歇根大学月度消费者调查中的未来5至10年的通胀预期中值是遗恨良好的通胀预期指标。他说道：“我们已经看到了某种反弹——它们的水平似乎与美联储试图设定的2%通胀率相一致，但如果它们继续攀升，就会引发更多的恐慌。”未来5-10年消费者的通胀预期：","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2019,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026478178,"gmtCreate":1653433100594,"gmtModify":1676535279115,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oh&nbsp;","listText":"Oh&nbsp;","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026478178","repostId":"1107384662","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2047,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026081597,"gmtCreate":1653297627519,"gmtModify":1676535255668,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"No&nbsp;","listText":"No&nbsp;","text":"No","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026081597","repostId":"1162580552","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2669,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9028601178,"gmtCreate":1653204589394,"gmtModify":1676535240167,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"K&nbsp;","listText":"K&nbsp;","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9028601178","repostId":"615784506","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":615784506,"gmtCreate":1653196473505,"gmtModify":1676533133826,"author":{"id":"3561588058603386","authorId":"3561588058603386","name":"孟析笔谈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c19d993767ff7603cd9012a54472164","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561588058603386","authorIdStr":"3561588058603386"},"themes":[],"title":"心理專家線上“開方送藥”！海信冰箱公益課堂聽得家長心裏暖暖的","htmlText":"家有兒女初長成，父母和老師一邊歡喜一邊憂。5月20日，海信真空冰箱·雨辰助學邀請青島理工大學劉志燕教授，以《兒童發展階段心理特點分析》爲主題，通過網上公益課堂，展開了一場針對孩子的“發現之旅”。此次公益講座，劉志燕教授以心理學精神分析爲理論基礎，以孩子常見的情緒變化、學習下滑、親子關係緊張等現象入手，深入淺出地分析講解如何破解孩子們的“心理密碼”，並告訴父母及老師這種現象背後的深層原因，用“反思”的方法，爲父母和老師尋找到解決“叛逆”的“錦囊祕籍”。劉志燕表示，孩子們出現這些情況並不可怕，可怕的在於老師和家長們的忽視、無知與冷漠，她在線上課堂傳授了幾個老師和父母與孩子溝通的小技巧。“其實很簡單，就是從愛和信任開始。家長要做的就是花時間和孩子單獨相處，分享自己的感受和生活，多交流。老師要做到相信孩子，尊重孩子，支持孩子，當好他成長路上的‘引路人’。”據瞭解，在這個特殊的疫情期，爲了讓孩子在家也能有精彩的社會見識，不錯過書本之外的可能性，海信真空冰箱·雨辰助學廣邀講師在線上開辦公益課堂。繼王晴老師的硬筆書法課和劉志燕教授的心理課堂獲得成功之後，海信真空冰箱·雨辰助學還將繼續深入挖掘課題，爲助學孩子們帶來更多新鮮實用的公益課堂，讓他們足不出戶也能“見世界”。","listText":"家有兒女初長成，父母和老師一邊歡喜一邊憂。5月20日，海信真空冰箱·雨辰助學邀請青島理工大學劉志燕教授，以《兒童發展階段心理特點分析》爲主題，通過網上公益課堂，展開了一場針對孩子的“發現之旅”。此次公益講座，劉志燕教授以心理學精神分析爲理論基礎，以孩子常見的情緒變化、學習下滑、親子關係緊張等現象入手，深入淺出地分析講解如何破解孩子們的“心理密碼”，並告訴父母及老師這種現象背後的深層原因，用“反思”的方法，爲父母和老師尋找到解決“叛逆”的“錦囊祕籍”。劉志燕表示，孩子們出現這些情況並不可怕，可怕的在於老師和家長們的忽視、無知與冷漠，她在線上課堂傳授了幾個老師和父母與孩子溝通的小技巧。“其實很簡單，就是從愛和信任開始。家長要做的就是花時間和孩子單獨相處，分享自己的感受和生活，多交流。老師要做到相信孩子，尊重孩子，支持孩子，當好他成長路上的‘引路人’。”據瞭解，在這個特殊的疫情期，爲了讓孩子在家也能有精彩的社會見識，不錯過書本之外的可能性，海信真空冰箱·雨辰助學廣邀講師在線上開辦公益課堂。繼王晴老師的硬筆書法課和劉志燕教授的心理課堂獲得成功之後，海信真空冰箱·雨辰助學還將繼續深入挖掘課題，爲助學孩子們帶來更多新鮮實用的公益課堂，讓他們足不出戶也能“見世界”。","text":"家有兒女初長成，父母和老師一邊歡喜一邊憂。5月20日，海信真空冰箱·雨辰助學邀請青島理工大學劉志燕教授，以《兒童發展階段心理特點分析》爲主題，通過網上公益課堂，展開了一場針對孩子的“發現之旅”。此次公益講座，劉志燕教授以心理學精神分析爲理論基礎，以孩子常見的情緒變化、學習下滑、親子關係緊張等現象入手，深入淺出地分析講解如何破解孩子們的“心理密碼”，並告訴父母及老師這種現象背後的深層原因，用“反思”的方法，爲父母和老師尋找到解決“叛逆”的“錦囊祕籍”。劉志燕表示，孩子們出現這些情況並不可怕，可怕的在於老師和家長們的忽視、無知與冷漠，她在線上課堂傳授了幾個老師和父母與孩子溝通的小技巧。“其實很簡單，就是從愛和信任開始。家長要做的就是花時間和孩子單獨相處，分享自己的感受和生活，多交流。老師要做到相信孩子，尊重孩子，支持孩子，當好他成長路上的‘引路人’。”據瞭解，在這個特殊的疫情期，爲了讓孩子在家也能有精彩的社會見識，不錯過書本之外的可能性，海信真空冰箱·雨辰助學廣邀講師在線上開辦公益課堂。繼王晴老師的硬筆書法課和劉志燕教授的心理課堂獲得成功之後，海信真空冰箱·雨辰助學還將繼續深入挖掘課題，爲助學孩子們帶來更多新鮮實用的公益課堂，讓他們足不出戶也能“見世界”。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf1f128a94b5289fdf1ad51776500593"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/615784506","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9028601349,"gmtCreate":1653204577882,"gmtModify":1676535240160,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"K&nbsp;","listText":"K&nbsp;","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9028601349","repostId":"615787219","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":615787219,"gmtCreate":1653197882631,"gmtModify":1676533134036,"author":{"id":"4099445609802530","authorId":"4099445609802530","name":"读懂数字财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81b9527f1fd2c3dab409752c5c6c9411","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099445609802530","authorIdStr":"4099445609802530"},"themes":[],"title":"螞蟻集團如何重塑想象力（下）：兩張進展不順利的關鍵牌照","htmlText":"如果需要,支付寶可以上交給國家——馬雲筆者在《螞蟻，氣虛，筋骨強》一文中提到：螞蟻集團的根基是用戶、數據和流量，而這些不是信貸業務帶來的，而是以支付、生活、金融科技的整個生態帶來的，信貸業務只不過是螞蟻的變現方式。雖然筆者依然堅持當初的觀點，但不得不承認：信貸是數據最好的變現方式。螞蟻要扭轉頹勢，必須解決微貸科技平臺的問題。方案無非兩個：保住信貸業務或是找到信貸業務的替代品。對於第一個解決方案，其實螞蟻的微貸科技平臺一直有一個更好的解決方案“讓網商銀行承載這部分業務”，但若是這麼做，螞蟻收益只能有30%。退而求其次，含金量比網絡小貸更高、收益比例比網商銀行更高的消費金融牌照就成了一個斷臂求生的方案。螞蟻集團佔消金公司股權比例爲50%，雖然收益比例大幅降低，但相比於服務銀行放貸，螞蟻消金自己放貸，承擔了更大的風險，自然也會分得更多蛋糕，隨着不斷增資，總收益說不定可以與整改前持平甚至更高。一切看上去都在向好的方向發展，但意外如期而至——剛開年，中國信達、魚躍醫療等機構認購螞蟻消費金融股權計劃生變。輿論場也有一些壞消息傳來。有媒體曝出：我國的相關國企、銀行等已經接到了通知，將對螞蟻集團的相關業務進行新一輪的全面排查，目的是查明這些國企對螞蟻集團的投資及其他關聯。據第一消費金融：知名消費貸巨頭A公司持續在被限制消費貸管理規模，目前，A公司通過旗下消費貸產品B和產品C管理規模已經降低到萬億以下。監管對該公司的管理規模預期，第一目標是降低到3500億元。消費貸巨頭A是誰，顯而易見。第二個解決方案，錢塘徵信自然是最好的載體。2021年7月，人民銀行徵信管理局給網絡平臺機構下發通知，要求網絡平臺實現個人信息與金融機構的全面“斷直連”，過去的無冕之王“芝麻信用”不可能繼續裸奔，形勢比2020年外灘峯會後更加嚴峻。個人徵信牌照迫在眉睫。以螞蟻的實力，參股個人徵信牌照不是問題，但問題就出在“參股","listText":"如果需要,支付寶可以上交給國家——馬雲筆者在《螞蟻，氣虛，筋骨強》一文中提到：螞蟻集團的根基是用戶、數據和流量，而這些不是信貸業務帶來的，而是以支付、生活、金融科技的整個生態帶來的，信貸業務只不過是螞蟻的變現方式。雖然筆者依然堅持當初的觀點，但不得不承認：信貸是數據最好的變現方式。螞蟻要扭轉頹勢，必須解決微貸科技平臺的問題。方案無非兩個：保住信貸業務或是找到信貸業務的替代品。對於第一個解決方案，其實螞蟻的微貸科技平臺一直有一個更好的解決方案“讓網商銀行承載這部分業務”，但若是這麼做，螞蟻收益只能有30%。退而求其次，含金量比網絡小貸更高、收益比例比網商銀行更高的消費金融牌照就成了一個斷臂求生的方案。螞蟻集團佔消金公司股權比例爲50%，雖然收益比例大幅降低，但相比於服務銀行放貸，螞蟻消金自己放貸，承擔了更大的風險，自然也會分得更多蛋糕，隨着不斷增資，總收益說不定可以與整改前持平甚至更高。一切看上去都在向好的方向發展，但意外如期而至——剛開年，中國信達、魚躍醫療等機構認購螞蟻消費金融股權計劃生變。輿論場也有一些壞消息傳來。有媒體曝出：我國的相關國企、銀行等已經接到了通知，將對螞蟻集團的相關業務進行新一輪的全面排查，目的是查明這些國企對螞蟻集團的投資及其他關聯。據第一消費金融：知名消費貸巨頭A公司持續在被限制消費貸管理規模，目前，A公司通過旗下消費貸產品B和產品C管理規模已經降低到萬億以下。監管對該公司的管理規模預期，第一目標是降低到3500億元。消費貸巨頭A是誰，顯而易見。第二個解決方案，錢塘徵信自然是最好的載體。2021年7月，人民銀行徵信管理局給網絡平臺機構下發通知，要求網絡平臺實現個人信息與金融機構的全面“斷直連”，過去的無冕之王“芝麻信用”不可能繼續裸奔，形勢比2020年外灘峯會後更加嚴峻。個人徵信牌照迫在眉睫。以螞蟻的實力，參股個人徵信牌照不是問題，但問題就出在“參股","text":"如果需要,支付寶可以上交給國家——馬雲筆者在《螞蟻，氣虛，筋骨強》一文中提到：螞蟻集團的根基是用戶、數據和流量，而這些不是信貸業務帶來的，而是以支付、生活、金融科技的整個生態帶來的，信貸業務只不過是螞蟻的變現方式。雖然筆者依然堅持當初的觀點，但不得不承認：信貸是數據最好的變現方式。螞蟻要扭轉頹勢，必須解決微貸科技平臺的問題。方案無非兩個：保住信貸業務或是找到信貸業務的替代品。對於第一個解決方案，其實螞蟻的微貸科技平臺一直有一個更好的解決方案“讓網商銀行承載這部分業務”，但若是這麼做，螞蟻收益只能有30%。退而求其次，含金量比網絡小貸更高、收益比例比網商銀行更高的消費金融牌照就成了一個斷臂求生的方案。螞蟻集團佔消金公司股權比例爲50%，雖然收益比例大幅降低，但相比於服務銀行放貸，螞蟻消金自己放貸，承擔了更大的風險，自然也會分得更多蛋糕，隨着不斷增資，總收益說不定可以與整改前持平甚至更高。一切看上去都在向好的方向發展，但意外如期而至——剛開年，中國信達、魚躍醫療等機構認購螞蟻消費金融股權計劃生變。輿論場也有一些壞消息傳來。有媒體曝出：我國的相關國企、銀行等已經接到了通知，將對螞蟻集團的相關業務進行新一輪的全面排查，目的是查明這些國企對螞蟻集團的投資及其他關聯。據第一消費金融：知名消費貸巨頭A公司持續在被限制消費貸管理規模，目前，A公司通過旗下消費貸產品B和產品C管理規模已經降低到萬億以下。監管對該公司的管理規模預期，第一目標是降低到3500億元。消費貸巨頭A是誰，顯而易見。第二個解決方案，錢塘徵信自然是最好的載體。2021年7月，人民銀行徵信管理局給網絡平臺機構下發通知，要求網絡平臺實現個人信息與金融機構的全面“斷直連”，過去的無冕之王“芝麻信用”不可能繼續裸奔，形勢比2020年外灘峯會後更加嚴峻。個人徵信牌照迫在眉睫。以螞蟻的實力，參股個人徵信牌照不是問題，但問題就出在“參股","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f36fd9a13d04d3df702ccf952bb8e5e8"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/615787219","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9028603550,"gmtCreate":1653204471970,"gmtModify":1676535240152,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"oh","listText":"oh","text":"oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9028603550","repostId":"1176182387","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2045,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021544123,"gmtCreate":1653090673662,"gmtModify":1676535220738,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlTex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11:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Learn from History: S&P 500 One Step Away from Bear Market, Worse Is Yet to Come","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2236063801","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：自二战以来美股已经出现了17个熊市：平均持续时间大约为一年，从峰值到谷底的跌幅接近30%。在连续的跌跌不休之后，标普500指数较今年1月3日峰值已经下挫18%，而跌幅一旦达到20%就将进入传统定","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract:</b><b>Since World War II, there have been 17 bear markets in U.S. stocks: the average duration is about a year, and the peak-to-trough decline is nearly 30%.</b>After continuous declines, the S&P 500 index has fallen by 18% from its peak on January 3rd this year, and once the decline reaches 20%, it will enter a bear market in the traditional definition.</p><p>However, some voices pointed out that the S&P 500 index has actually been bear market style in the past few weeks.</p><p>Business media MarketWatch mentioned that Mike Mullaney, head of global market research at Boston Partners, an investment institution, said that so far,<b>Sixty-one percent of the constituent stocks in the S&P 500 have entered a bear market.</b></p><p>Thomas Mathews of Capital Economics, a research firm, believes that the S&P 500 index can easily hit a low of 3,750 points), and as more earnings reports that are less than expected are gradually released, the S&P 500 index may continue to decline.</p><p>This Thursday due to the second-largest retail consumer group in the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TGT\">Target</a>Performance \"thunderstorm\", superimposed the day before<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>The earnings results fell short of expectations, and the S&P 500 posted its biggest one-day drop since June 11, 2020, on Sunday.</p><p><b>So from historical experience, how will the S&P 500 develop after entering a bear market?</b></p><p>Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, an investment management platform, said in a Wednesday report that U.S. stocks have seen 17 bear markets (or near bear markets) since World War II.</p><p><b>Generally speaking, once the S&P 500 enters a bear market, it will fall further. The average duration is roughly one year, with a peak-to-trough decline of nearly 30%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc93d74246082b1811e825fa9d955b4\" tg-width=\"1582\" tg-height=\"1280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>During the financial crisis of 2007-2009, the S&P 500 index was in a bear market for 17 months and fell an all-time high of 57%.</p><p>The longest bear market occurred from 1973 to 1974, when the S&P 500 fell 48.2% in nearly 21 months.</p><p>The shortest bear market occurred at the outbreak of the pandemic in early 2020, when the S&P 500 plunged nearly 34% in 23 trading days and bottomed out on March 23 before the bull market began.</p><p><h2>Can \"P/E\" be preserved in the recession crisis?</h2>Capital Economics Mathews believes that although the S&P 500 is only one step away from a bear market, the earnings expectations of constituent stocks are still worth looking forward to.</p><p>In response, he stressed that analysts have been expecting S&P 500 stocks to achieve nearly double-digit earnings growth in the next few years. Economists also believe that 12-month forward earnings estimates for these constituents are still around 16% higher than pre-pandemic.</p><p>But according to di Galoma, managing director of asset manager Seaport Global Holdings,<b>At present, there is an underestimated risk factor, that is, how quickly financial and economic conditions will deteriorate in the current environment and how it will impact the stock market.</b></p><p>di Galoma, who said the pace of economic deterioration is \"accelerating and it will be much faster than people think,\" expects the U.S. economy to slip into recession in early 2023 and \"this recession will be very severe.\"</p><p>Mathews likewise pointed out,<b>The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is another \"key shock\" that could take a toll on the equity P/E.</b></p><p>At present, the Federal Reserve is still ready to continue to \"collect water\" aggressively, shrinking its balance sheet by nearly 9 trillion dollars from next month, and rate hike 50 basis points at two meetings in June and July respectively.</p><p><b>But what's happening now is that investors are trying to ignore the impact of rate hike.</b>Earlier, in early May, when Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that he had not actively considered rate hike for 75 basis points, the market immediately cheered. However, the next day, it began to \"return to reality\", causing the Dow to plummet by 1,000 points, the Nasdaq to plummet by 5%, and the S&P 500 to plummet by 3.5%.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Learn from History: S&P 500 One Step Away from Bear Market, Worse Is Yet to Come</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLearn from History: S&P 500 One Step Away from Bear Market, Worse Is Yet to Come\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-23 11:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract:</b><b>Since World War II, there have been 17 bear markets in U.S. stocks: the average duration is about a year, and the peak-to-trough decline is nearly 30%.</b>After continuous declines, the S&P 500 index has fallen by 18% from its peak on January 3rd this year, and once the decline reaches 20%, it will enter a bear market in the traditional definition.</p><p>However, some voices pointed out that the S&P 500 index has actually been bear market style in the past few weeks.</p><p>Business media MarketWatch mentioned that Mike Mullaney, head of global market research at Boston Partners, an investment institution, said that so far,<b>Sixty-one percent of the constituent stocks in the S&P 500 have entered a bear market.</b></p><p>Thomas Mathews of Capital Economics, a research firm, believes that the S&P 500 index can easily hit a low of 3,750 points), and as more earnings reports that are less than expected are gradually released, the S&P 500 index may continue to decline.</p><p>This Thursday due to the second-largest retail consumer group in the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TGT\">Target</a>Performance \"thunderstorm\", superimposed the day before<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>The earnings results fell short of expectations, and the S&P 500 posted its biggest one-day drop since June 11, 2020, on Sunday.</p><p><b>So from historical experience, how will the S&P 500 develop after entering a bear market?</b></p><p>Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, an investment management platform, said in a Wednesday report that U.S. stocks have seen 17 bear markets (or near bear markets) since World War II.</p><p><b>Generally speaking, once the S&P 500 enters a bear market, it will fall further. The average duration is roughly one year, with a peak-to-trough decline of nearly 30%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc93d74246082b1811e825fa9d955b4\" tg-width=\"1582\" tg-height=\"1280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>During the financial crisis of 2007-2009, the S&P 500 index was in a bear market for 17 months and fell an all-time high of 57%.</p><p>The longest bear market occurred from 1973 to 1974, when the S&P 500 fell 48.2% in nearly 21 months.</p><p>The shortest bear market occurred at the outbreak of the pandemic in early 2020, when the S&P 500 plunged nearly 34% in 23 trading days and bottomed out on March 23 before the bull market began.</p><p><h2>Can \"P/E\" be preserved in the recession crisis?</h2>Capital Economics Mathews believes that although the S&P 500 is only one step away from a bear market, the earnings expectations of constituent stocks are still worth looking forward to.</p><p>In response, he stressed that analysts have been expecting S&P 500 stocks to achieve nearly double-digit earnings growth in the next few years. Economists also believe that 12-month forward earnings estimates for these constituents are still around 16% higher than pre-pandemic.</p><p>But according to di Galoma, managing director of asset manager Seaport Global Holdings,<b>At present, there is an underestimated risk factor, that is, how quickly financial and economic conditions will deteriorate in the current environment and how it will impact the stock market.</b></p><p>di Galoma, who said the pace of economic deterioration is \"accelerating and it will be much faster than people think,\" expects the U.S. economy to slip into recession in early 2023 and \"this recession will be very severe.\"</p><p>Mathews likewise pointed out,<b>The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is another \"key shock\" that could take a toll on the equity P/E.</b></p><p>At present, the Federal Reserve is still ready to continue to \"collect water\" aggressively, shrinking its balance sheet by nearly 9 trillion dollars from next month, and rate hike 50 basis points at two meetings in June and July respectively.</p><p><b>But what's happening now is that investors are trying to ignore the impact of rate hike.</b>Earlier, in early May, when Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that he had not actively considered rate hike for 75 basis points, the market immediately cheered. However, the next day, it began to \"return to reality\", causing the Dow to plummet by 1,000 points, the Nasdaq to plummet by 5%, and the S&P 500 to plummet by 3.5%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3659886\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","OEX":"标普100","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3659886","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2236063801","content_text":"摘要：自二战以来美股已经出现了17个熊市：平均持续时间大约为一年，从峰值到谷底的跌幅接近30%。在连续的跌跌不休之后，标普500指数较今年1月3日峰值已经下挫18%，而跌幅一旦达到20%就将进入传统定义上的熊市。然而有声音指出，在过去数周标普500指数其实已经是熊市风格。商业媒体MarketWatch提及，投资机构Boston Partners全球市场研究主管Mike Mullaney表示，到目前为止，标普500指数中61%的成分股已经进入熊市。研究机构凯投宏观的Thomas Mathews认为，标普500指数很容易触及3750点的低位），并且随着更多不及预期的财报逐步公布，标普500指数或将继续下行。本周四由于美国第二大零售消费集团塔吉特业绩“暴雷”，叠加前一天沃尔玛财报成绩低于预期，标普500指数在周日创下2020年6月11日以来的最大单日跌幅。那么从历史经验来看，标普500指数进入熊市后会如何发展？投资管理平台LPL Financial首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick在周三报告中表示，自二战以来美股已经出现了17个熊市（或接近熊市）。而一般来说，标普500指数一旦进入熊市，就会进一步下跌。平均持续时间大约为一年，从峰值到谷底的跌幅接近30%。在2007年-2009年的金融危机中，标普500指数的熊市行情长达17个月，并且创下历史最高57%的跌幅。持续时间最长的熊市发生在1973年-1974年，标普500指数在近21个月的时间内下挫48.2%。持续时间最短的熊市发生在2020年初疫情爆发之时，当时标普500指数在23个交易日内重挫近34%，并在3月23日触底，之后便开启了牛市行情。经济衰退危机下 “市盈率”能否保住？凯投宏观Mathews认为，尽管标普500指数距离熊市仅一步之遥，但是成分股的盈利预期仍值得期待。他对此强调称，分析师们一直预计标普500指数成分股将在未来几年内实现近两位数的盈利增长。经济学家也认为，这些成分股的12个月远期盈利预期仍比疫情前高出16%左右。但是按照资产管理机构Seaport Global Holdings的董事总经理di Galoma的说法，当前有一个风险因素被低估，那就是在当前环境下金融和经济状况会以多快的速度恶化，会对股市造成怎样的冲击。di Galoma表示经济恶化速度“正在加速，而且会比人们想象的要快得多”，他预计美国经济将在 2023年初陷入衰退，并且“这次衰退将非常严重”。Mathews同样指出，美联储的货币政策就是另一个“关键冲击”，可能会对股票市盈率造成影响。当前美联储仍旧准备继续激进“收水”，从下月开始缩减近9万亿美元的资产负债表，并在6月和7月两次会议上分别加息50个基点。但现在的情况是，投资者正在试图忽略加息的影响。此前在5月初当美联储主席鲍威尔表示未积极考虑加息75个基点，市场随即欢呼雀跃，然而在第二天就开始“回归现实”，导致道指狂泻千点，纳指暴跌5%，标普500指数重挫3.5%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SPY":1,"SDS":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SPXU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1763,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":124716002,"gmtCreate":1624791483706,"gmtModify":1703845202768,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":45,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/124716002","repostId":"1182411664","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182411664","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624761673,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182411664?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-27 10:41","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"The National Carbon Trading Market is about to open, and institutions point out five investment directions","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182411664","media":"上海证券报","summary":"随着全国碳交易市场开启日益临近，相关概念股也纷纷异动。近期，券商也密集发布研报关注碳交易市场带来的投资机会。多数机构认为，全国碳市场启动后，将对社会、行业、企业的投资生产决策产生影响，新能源、可再生资源回收等多领域有望受益。据首创证券预计，2021年我国碳交易市场成交量或将达到2.5亿吨，为2020年各个试点交易所交易总量的3倍，成交金额将达60亿元。","content":"<p><div>As the opening of the national carbon trading market approaches, related concept stocks have also changed. On June 25th, the carbon neutrality, energy conservation and environmental protection segments were active. As of the close, Tianwo Technology, Hunan Tianyan, Meijin Energy and other stocks had their daily limit, and stocks such as Debon Lighting, Kaier New Materials and Zhiguang Electric had risen one after another. Recently, brokers have also intensively published research reports to pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by the carbon trading market. Most institutions believe that after the launch of the national carbon market, it will have an impact on the investment and production decisions of society, industries and enterprises, and many fields such as new energy and renewable resource recycling are expected to benefit. The scale of carbon trading will climb rapidly The national carbon market...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CdJFesr-SWj4G8AzdeeXSw\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"shzqb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The National Carbon Trading Market is about to open, and institutions point out five investment directions</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe National Carbon Trading Market is about to open, and institutions point out five investment directions\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">上海证券报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 10:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>As the opening of the national carbon trading market approaches, related concept stocks have also changed. On June 25th, the carbon neutrality, energy conservation and environmental protection segments were active. As of the close, Tianwo Technology, Hunan Tianyan, Meijin Energy and other stocks had their daily limit, and stocks such as Debon Lighting, Kaier New Materials and Zhiguang Electric had risen one after another. Recently, brokers have also intensively published research reports to pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by the carbon trading market. Most institutions believe that after the launch of the national carbon market, it will have an impact on the investment and production decisions of society, industries and enterprises, and many fields such as new energy and renewable resource recycling are expected to benefit. The scale of carbon trading will climb rapidly The national carbon market...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CdJFesr-SWj4G8AzdeeXSw\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CdJFesr-SWj4G8AzdeeXSw\">上海证券报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a8eab65ec7981d9d3c6a4d13a066308","relate_stocks":{"300234":"开尔新材","600698":"湖南天雁","603303":"得邦照明","000723":"美锦能源","002564":"天沃科技","002169":"智光电气"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CdJFesr-SWj4G8AzdeeXSw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182411664","content_text":"随着全国碳交易市场开启日益临近，相关概念股也纷纷异动。\n6月25日，碳中和、节能环保板块表现活跃。截至收盘，天沃科技、湖南天雁、美锦能源等多股涨停，得邦照明、开尔新材、智光电气等个股纷纷拉升。\n\n近期，券商也密集发布研报关注碳交易市场带来的投资机会。多数机构认为，全国碳市场启动后，将对社会、行业、企业的投资生产决策产生影响，新能源、可再生资源回收等多领域有望受益。\n碳交易规模将迅速攀升\n全国碳市场启动之后，市场规模究竟有多大？\n据首创证券预计，2021年我国碳交易市场成交量或将达到2.5亿吨，为2020年各个试点交易所交易总量的3倍，成交金额将达60亿元。未来，我国碳市场覆盖范围将逐步扩大，到2030年累计交易额或将超过1000亿元。\n“伴随双碳目标逐步实现、控排覆盖企业增加以及碳交易市场成熟，我们推测碳交易规模将迅速攀升，仅碳排放现货交易一项，市场规模就有望于2030年突破千亿元。”中航证券高端制造团队指出。\n此外，机构认为碳交易市场正式上线后，有望带来碳交易量价齐升。中航证券高端制造团队表示，当前国内的碳交易成交量及价格显著低于国际水平，而全国碳交易系统建立将有助于提高市场活力，刺激企业向清洁能源转型，提高碳价格。\n“碳价格作为成本可能传递至电力、钢铁、水泥、炼油等行业。涉及碳交易的龙头企业一般具有技术和规模优势，碳价格对龙头公司影响较小。”平安证券分析师樊金璐表示。\n新能源企业利润有望增厚\n天风证券研究所环保与公用行业首席分析师郭丽丽认为，全国碳市场首批纳入仅是2000多家电力企业，对于不同类型的电力企业影响不一。对于火电企业，短期业绩压力不大，而中长期面临向非化石能源转型的压力较大；对于新能源运营企业，CCER（国家核证自愿减排量）有望增厚其收益，盈利能力或进一步提升。\n华西证券环保公用团队同样看好新能源企业后续业绩空间。其认为，“免费发放+拍卖”相结合的配额分配是未来碳市场发展方向，若未来碳配额价格能够较好地体现经济价值，则新能源运营企业将获得丰厚的额外碳配额交易收入，实现价值重估。\n“新能源发电商价值有望重估，我们按2019年数据测算，将增厚新能源发电利润9%至17%。”华泰证券表示，长期看好新能源发电前景，但是对于火电也不必过度悲观，火电仍具备压舱石效应，行稳致远。\n机构：关注五大投资方向\n机构普遍认为，碳排放权交易是生态环境价值的体现，也是未来一段时间碳达峰、碳中和行动的核心工作。那么从长期投资角度来看，应该关注哪些机遇？\n国盛证券表示，碳交易全国推广，一方面将推动碳排放负外部性利益化，促进碳减排合理、高效、平稳实现。另一方面，立足全球视角，碳关税或将成为长期趋势，碳交易推广也将助力国际贸易全球化。具体而言，可以关注五大投资方向：\n一是高碳排行业集中度提升，龙头优势加速凸显，推荐关注钢铁、金属非金属新材料、工业金属、化学制品、装修装饰和其他建材等细分行业头部企业。\n二是零碳排新能源再获动力，推荐关注光伏、风电、核电、水电等电力细分领域优质标的。\n三是负碳排板块将受益于CCER（国家核证自愿减排量）推广，推荐关注林业碳汇、垃圾处理等相关投资机遇。\n四是碳配额分配与碳交易覆盖度提升均将激发碳排放监测需求，推荐关注环保监测设备、环保工程及服务。\n五是未来有望迎来碳金融产品创新与推广的新发展阶段，推荐关注银行金融板块及碳金融衍生品相关投资机遇。\n此外，首创证券认为，以数字化和信息化为载体的智慧环保将深度赋能碳市场与碳交易。智慧环保是优质赛道，且处于行业生命周期中的快速成长期，相关公司将享受市场爆发的红利。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"300234":0.9,"600698":0.9,"603303":0.9,"002564":0.9,"000723":0.9,"002169":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1219,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809882722,"gmtCreate":1627358120366,"gmtModify":1703488322168,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":22,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809882722","repostId":"1150761427","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150761427","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627355599,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1150761427?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-27 11:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tesla's $23 million asset impairment in Bitcoin is about to fall below cost line","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150761427","media":"界面新闻","summary":"该公司没有报告更新加密货币的减持或增持，仍持价值13亿美元的比特币。","content":"<p><div>Reporter/Si Linwei On July 26th, Tesla, the world's largest electric vehicle manufacturer, announced its second-quarter financial report after the U.S. stock market closed. According to the financial report, Tesla's revenue in the second quarter of 2021 was $11.96 billion, a year-on-year increase of 98%. Tesla's Q2 earnings data is very bright, exceeding market expectations. But its Bitcoin-related assets were impaired by $23 million, and its net crypto assets are now worth $1.311 billion. According to Tesla's second-quarter earnings, the company reported no underweight or overweight in updated cryptocurrencies and remains with $1.3 billion worth of Bitcoin. Tesla announced in February that it had purchased value...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6406915.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"jm","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's $23 million asset impairment in Bitcoin is about to fall below cost line</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's $23 million asset impairment in Bitcoin is about to fall below cost line\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">界面新闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-27 11:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Reporter/Si Linwei On July 26th, Tesla, the world's largest electric vehicle manufacturer, announced its second-quarter financial report after the U.S. stock market closed. According to the financial report, Tesla's revenue in the second quarter of 2021 was $11.96 billion, a year-on-year increase of 98%. Tesla's Q2 earnings data is very bright, exceeding market expectations. But its Bitcoin-related assets were impaired by $23 million, and its net crypto assets are now worth $1.311 billion. According to Tesla's second-quarter earnings, the company reported no underweight or overweight in updated cryptocurrencies and remains with $1.3 billion worth of Bitcoin. Tesla announced in February that it had purchased value...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6406915.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6406915.html\">界面新闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/962be253ee7459c393769e9105cb1429","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6406915.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150761427","content_text":"记者／司林威\n7月26日，全球最大电动汽车制造商特斯拉在美股盘后公布了二季度财报。财报显示，特斯拉在2021年第二季度营收119.6亿美元，同比增长98%。\n特斯拉Q2财报数据非常亮眼，超出市场预期。但其比特币相关资产减值2300万美元，目前净加密资产价值13.11亿美元。\n根据特斯拉第二季度财报，该公司没有报告更新加密货币的减持或增持，仍持价值13亿美元的比特币。\n特斯拉在2月份宣布购买了价值15亿美元的比特币。在2020年第四季度晚些时候，该公司将其比特币头寸削减了10%，这一出售使其第一季度收益增加了2.72亿美元。通过出售比特币特斯拉成功使自己的净利润扭亏转正。\n但今年第二季度一切有了变化。随着5月19日起，加密货币受我国监管政策影响，价格一落千丈，在7月回到了2021年年初水平，特斯拉的持仓成本线也即将被跌穿。\n据《财富》网站估算，特斯拉共计买入了46000枚比特币，平均买入价格约为32600美元。2021年4月，特斯拉第一季度财报披露出售了10%的比特币，即4600枚左右，平均售价为59100美元。这笔交易为该公司带来了2.72亿美元的收入。\n截止二季度财报发布，特斯拉此后一直没有出售和增持比特币，即还持有41400枚比特币，扣除已经了结的利润后，其真实成本应为12.28亿美元，这意味着其单币成本价约为29661美元。\n而财报发布前一星期，比特币价格已接近29000美元，即将跌穿特斯拉的成本线。\n财报发布前，特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克大改此前批评态度，对比特币和狗狗币大肆唱多。他在出席活动中明确表示“特斯拉很有可能恢复比特币支付”，又透露旗下另一家公司Space X也持有比特币。\n同时，他还在社交媒体上转发了各种看好狗狗币的表情包，还表示自己的儿子非常喜欢狗狗币。\n北京时间7月27日凌晨3点，比特币价格迅速拉高，一举突破4万美元，创6月17日来的最高价。短暂突破后，比特币价格又迅速跳水3000美元，最低跌至36771美元。截止发稿前最新价格为37386美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9096754964,"gmtCreate":1644469679558,"gmtModify":1676533930815,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9096754964","repostId":"1164007651","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":856,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9036256654,"gmtCreate":1647131761413,"gmtModify":1676534196311,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"No&nbsp;","listText":"No&nbsp;","text":"No","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9036256654","repostId":"2218241000","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1048,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196228959,"gmtCreate":1621059901071,"gmtModify":1704352600497,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/196228959","repostId":"2135983438","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2135983438","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"美股大V独家情报资讯，聪明的海外投资者都在这里！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"美股情报局","id":"93","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35928b82e1d94fecbe1be1572e5703b0"},"pubTimestamp":1621068324,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2135983438?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-15 16:45","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"How did the gurus respond to the stock market decline?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2135983438","media":"美股情报局","summary":"巴菲特、达里奥、索罗斯等大师是如何应对股市下跌的？大师们如何应对大跌？但股市反弹持续到4月份后又开始暴跌，道琼斯指数在1930年下跌33%，而格雷厄姆管理的基金亏损高达50.5%。目前，桥水基金已成为全球最大对冲基金公司，管理的资产规模高达1500亿美元。这场大崩溃使量子基金净资产跌落26.2%，远大于17%的美国股市的跌幅，索罗斯成了这场灾难的最大失败者。","content":"<p>How did gurus like Buffett, Dalio, Soros, and others respond to the stock market decline?</p><p>Buffett said that when the stock market falls, don't pay close attention to the performance of the stock market, stay calm and hold for the long term.</p><p>Graham: Number one, never lose money; Second, never forget the number one.</p><p>Dario said that investors are always prone to making the decision to sell when the market falls, but giving in to fear is not a wise strategy, because it will not be successful. Keep calm and move in the opposite direction.</p><p>Peter Lynch calls a plunge the best opportunity to make big money: It is often in this kind of stock market crash that huge wealth has a chance to make.</p><p>Soros: The way to get wealth is to recognize the illusion, invest in it, and then quit the game before the illusion is recognized by the public.</p><p>Jim M.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ROG\">Rogers</a>: Buy for what it is worth, sell for what it is crazy.</p><p>What should the average investor do if the stock market plummets?</p><p><b>How do the masters deal with the crash?</b></p><p><b>Buffett: Stay Calm, Hold for the Long Term</b></p><p>In Warren Buffett's view, the best way for investors in the face of violent fluctuations in the stock market should be to stay calm and stick to the investment principle of long-term holding.</p><p>As a stock god with a career spanning more than 50 years, Buffett warned investors in a 2016 interview: \"<b>Don't pay close attention to stock market performance when it goes down. If an investor is worried when the stock market falls, and then thinks about ditching his stock when the stock market recovers, then this investor will not get the desired return in the end.</b>」</p><p>Buffett has always emphasized that long-term investment is an important factor in achieving desirable returns. He believes that the gains from investing in the stock market come from holding shares in quality companies for a long time. If investors buy shares of high-quality companies and hold them for 10, 20, 30 years, they will eventually make good returns.</p><p>Buffett once explained in his annual letter to shareholders that markets are always volatile, so the best option for every investor, regardless of depth of investment experience, is to stay calm.</p><p>He wrote: While usually markets are rational, they occasionally get crazy. It doesn't take much wisdom or a degree in economics for investors to seize opportunities.</p><p>What investors need is simply the ability to ignore market panic or frenzy and focus on the fundamentals. It is also important to be able to maintain a boring, even stupid, willingness for a considerable period of time.</p><p><b>Graham</b></p><p><b>First, never lose money; Second, never forget the number one.</b></p><p>Graham is Buffett's mentor, the father of securities analysis, and the originator of value investing. In September 1929, the Dow rose to a peak of 381, and then began to fall. On October 29, the Dow Jones index plunged 12% on what was described as the \"worst day\" in the 112-year history of the New York Stock Exchange, which was the most famous \"Black Tuesday\" in history.</p><p>In November 1929, the Dow Jones dropped as low as 198 before stabilizing and rebounding. By March 1930, it had risen to 286 points at one point, rebounding by as much as 43%. So many investors think the worst is over and the stock market is about to turn around. Graham thinks so, so he starts to go bargain hunting.</p><p>He copied all good stocks that were very cheap from the perspective of value evaluation. In order to achieve greater returns, he also used margin for leverage. But the stock market rally lasted into April and then began to plummet again, with the Dow Jones falling 33% in 1930 and the fund managed by Graham losing as much as 50.5%.</p><p>By July 1932, the Dow reached a low of 41 points, with the biggest drop of 89% from a high of 381 points. In the same period, Graham's fund lost 78%, and this super bear market almost broke his bank.</p><p>Graham later made a comeback and wrote the investment bibles Securities Analysis and The Smart Investor, summarizing an eternal basic principle of value investing: the margin of safety.</p><p>Safety first, profit second.</p><p><b>Dario: Stay calm, reverse operation</b></p><p>Like Buffett, Dario, founder of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, agrees that investors should remain calm without panicking in the face of a stock market decline.</p><p>'Investors are always prone to selling when the market goes down,' Mr. Dario said, 'but giving in to fear is not a wise strategy because it will not be successful.'</p><p>Instead, when the market goes down, investors need to do the reverse, i.e. when you no longer feel fear, you may need to sell; When you feel fear, you may need to buy in.</p><p>At present, Bridgewater Fund has become the world's largest hedge fund company, with assets under management of up to $150 billion.</p><p>In Principles, Dario shares three things he learned in a market crash: One, you shouldn't be outrageously overconfident and indulge yourself in being swayed by your emotions. No matter how much I know, no matter how diligent I am, I should never confidently make absolute assertions.</p><p>Second, I once again appreciate the value of studying history; Third, it is quite difficult to time the market. One of the essentials to becoming a successful investor is to place risky bets only on those you have high confidence in, and to fully diversify those investments.</p><p>Wise people keep an eye on sound fundamentals through all kinds of ups and downs; While frivolous people follow their feelings, react emotionally, rush to hot things, and give up immediately when they are not hot.</p><p>The safest way to have many advantages without being exposed to unacceptable disadvantages is to make a series of good, unrelated bets that balance and complement each other.</p><p><b>Lynch, Peter J.</b></p><p>The historical law of stock market volatility tells us that all the big falls will pass, and the stock market will always rise higher. Historical experience also shows that the stock market crash is actually a good opportunity to release risks and create investment, and you can buy those excellent company stocks at very low prices. But bargain hunting isn't that simple. Instead of constantly copying the \"bottom\" and being trapped, it is better to wait for the bottom to appear before intervening.</p><p>When the U.S. stock market crashed in 1987, many people went from millionaires to extreme poverty, suffered mental breakdowns and even committed suicide. At that time, Peter Lynch, an American securities superstar, managed more than $10 billion in Magellan Fund. Within a day, the fund's net asset value lost 18%, and the loss was as high as $2 billion.</p><p>Lynch, like all open-end fund managers, had one choice: dump the stock. In order to cope with the extraordinarily large redemption, Lynch had to sell all the shares.</p><p>More than a year later, Peter Lynch still feels frightened when he recalls, \"At that moment, I really wasn't sure whether it was the end of the world, or whether we were about to go into a severe depression, or whether things weren't so bad yet, and it was just Wall Street about to end?\"</p><p>After that, Peter Lynch continued to experience many big stock market falls, but still achieved very successful performance.</p><p>First, don't panic and throw all the stocks at a bargain price. If you are desperate to sell stocks in the midst of a stock market crash, then your selling price will often be very low. The October 1987 market was frightening, but there was no need to sell stocks one day or the next.</p><p>The stock market began to rise steadily in November of that year. By June 1988, the market had rebounded by more than 400 points, which means a gain of over 23%.</p><p>Second, have firm courage to hold good company stocks. Third, dare to buy good company stocks at low prices. Plunges are the best opportunity to make big money: Great wealth is often made in this kind of stock market crash.</p><p><b>Soros</b></p><p>World Economic History is a series based on illusions and lies. The way to gain wealth is to recognize the illusion, invest in it, and then quit the game before the illusion is recognized by the public.</p><p>Before 1987, Soros thought that the Japanese stock market bubble was huge, and shorted Japanese stocks. As a result, it failed miserably, and the Japanese stock market reached a bull in 1989. In a Wall Street commentary, Soros touted that U.S. stocks would be strong and Japanese stocks would crash, and the result was the opposite: U.S. stocks crashed, but Japanese stocks were strong.</p><p>In September 1987, Soros moved billions of dollars of investment from Tokyo to Wall Street. However, it was not Japan's stock market that crashed first, but Wall Street in the United States.</p><p>On October 19th, 1987, the Dow Jones Average in New York, USA, plunged 508 points, a record at that time. Over the next week, the New York stock market slipped. The Japanese stock market has been relatively strong. Soros decided to sell off several large long-term shares he owned.</p><p>Other traders captured the information and took the opportunity to slash down the sold stocks, reducing the cash discount on futures by 20%. Soros lost about $650 million to $800 million in the Wall Street crash.</p><p>Soros became the biggest loser of the disaster after the collapse dropped Quantum Fund's net assets by 26.2%, much larger than the 17% decline in the U.S. stock market.</p><p>In the final analysis, the reason for Soros's fiasco in that year was speculative psychology, and he tried to figure out the market opportunity and went to the situation of huge losses.</p><p>There is no shame in mistakes. It is shame that mistakes are already obvious and have not been corrected. Take risks, beyond reproach. But at the same time, remember never to go all-in-one. It doesn't matter whether it's right or wrong. The key is how much you lose when you're wrong, and how much you make when you're right.</p><p><b>Jim Rogers: Buy for what it's worth, sell for what it's crazy</b></p><p>Wall Street investment guru Jim Rogers once pointed out that you should be patient and wait for a good time, make money and take profits, and then wait for the next opportunity. In this way, you can defeat others.</p><p>The market trend often shows a long-term sluggishness. In order to avoid getting funds into a stagnant market, investors should wait for the catalytic factors that can change the market trend. Buy it for money, sell it crazy.</p><p><b>Fisher, Philip A.</b></p><p>Philip Fisher is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000900\">Hyundai Investments</a>One of the pioneers of theory, the father of growth stock investment strategy, the godfather investment guru, and one of the highly respected and respected investors on Wall Street.</p><p>Learn to spend a lot of time researching and not be in a rush to buy. In a continuously declining market environment, don't buy unfamiliar stocks too quickly.</p><p>In 1929, the U.S. stock market was in the crazy bull market before the collapse, but Fisher found that many industries in the United States were unstable and there was a severe bubble in the stock market.</p><p>In August 1929, he presented a report to senior bank executives that \"the worst big short market in 25 years will unfold.\" This is arguably the most admirable stock market forecast in Fisher's life. Unfortunately, Fisher is \"bearish and long\".</p><p>He said, \"I couldn't help but be confused by the strength of the stock market. So I looked everywhere for some relatively cheap stocks because they hadn't risen well yet.\" Fisher didn't survive the sudden collapse of the U.S. stock market in October 1929. He suffered heavy losses in the stock market crash, and Fisher lost all his money.</p><p>Fisher began to understand that the main factor in determining stock prices was not the P/E of the current year, but the expected P/E of the next few years. He said that if you can cultivate your ability to determine the possible performance of a certain stock in the next few years within a reasonable upper and lower limit, you can find a key, which can not only avoid losses, but also make huge profits.</p><p><b>Miller, Bill J.</b></p><p>「<b>I often remind my fellow analysts that your information about the company is 100% representative of the company's past, while the valuation of the stock is 100% dependent on the future.</b>」</p><p>In the 15 years from 1991 to 2005, the Legg Mason Value Trust managed by Miller successively beat the S&P 500 index, creating the most brilliant fund manager performance record in history, and is praised as the most successful fund manager of this era. However, in just one year, the honor was ruined by his own hands.</p><p>During the subprime mortgage crisis, the stocks of many originally excellent companies fell sharply in succession. Miller believed that investors had overreacted, so he bought against the market. He thought the crisis would be a great opportunity to make money, but it turned into the worst bear market since the Great Depression.</p><p>Although his reverse investment decisions over the past 15 years have proved correct afterwards, this time it has fallen miserably. Miller's stock list is like the \"martyrs list\" of this crisis: AIG, Bear Stearns, Freddie Mac, Citigroup, Washington<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKMU\">Mutual banking</a>Etc.</p><p>In an interview in 2008, Miller, 58, said: \"From the beginning, I could not properly estimate the severity of this liquidity crisis.\"</p><p>Although Miller used to make money from market panic, he said that this time he didn't expect the crisis to be so serious and the fundamental problems so deep that all the high-quality listed companies that used to be market leaders collapsed.</p><p>\"I'm still inexperienced,\" Miller said. \"Every decision to buy stocks is wrong. It's terrible.\"</p><p>Lesson Learned \"Any outperforming portfolio will succeed over a certain period of time because it has the insurance of price misalignment. The market is wrong about this future figure. We use a combination of factors to identify price misalignment by comparing the market, the company's valuation with our own valuation of the company.\"</p><p><b>Stock Market Plunges, What Do Ordinary Investors Do?</b></p><p><b>Situation 1: The stock in hand has fallen to the cost zone</b></p><p>Suggestion: In this situation, cautious investors should choose to leave the market, and more aggressive investors should set a stop-loss price, and then observe for a day or two before making a decision. Don't kill blindly, and don't have emotions about the stocks you buy. At this moment, your mind must be clear.</p><p><b>Situation 2: The stock in hand has already lost money</b></p><p>Suggestion: This kind of loss also needs to be treated by category. Investors can check the relevant information. If the stocks in their hands belong to the fund's heavy stocks, then don't blindly cut their positions. Even in the case of a rapid plunge in the market, they can cover their positions in batches, spread the cost, and fight with the fund to the end. (This suggestion is not suitable for use in the case of a bear market decline or a stock market crash)</p><p>However, if it is found by checking the data that the main force of the stock is mainly manipulated by individual large investors, investors should resolutely get out of the game and keep cash for greater initiative when the market of such stocks continues to be poor. Because the main force of this kind of stock generally won't protect the market when the market really plummets.</p><p>In addition, there are some stocks with relatively light transactions, and there are no obvious signs of main intervention, so we must set a stop-loss price. The nature of this stock is mainly to follow the trend. Once it falls below the long-term platform, we must resolutely leave the market.</p><p><b>Situation 3: Half money and half stocks</b></p><p>Suggestion: If investors are profitable in this part of their stocks, and the market trend is always unclear, they should sell out the stocks and keep cash. After all, there are many opportunities in the market, and only by keeping cash can you have a greater voice in the market.</p><p>If this part of the stocks in their hands has lost money, then investors should choose to quickly replenish the stocks in their hands after the market drops sharply and shows a steady trend. However, if the stock increases greatly on the same day after covering the position, it can be made in disguise T +0 on the same day to lock in some profits.</p><p><b>Situation 4: You want to enter the market with money in your hands</b></p><p>Suggestion: If you are an aggressive investor and have a certain ability to read the market, you can grab a rebound according to the market situation, but you should focus on short-term thinking.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How did the gurus respond to the stock market decline?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow did the gurus respond to the stock market decline?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/93\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/35928b82e1d94fecbe1be1572e5703b0);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">美股情报局 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-15 16:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>How did gurus like Buffett, Dalio, Soros, and others respond to the stock market decline?</p><p>Buffett said that when the stock market falls, don't pay close attention to the performance of the stock market, stay calm and hold for the long term.</p><p>Graham: Number one, never lose money; Second, never forget the number one.</p><p>Dario said that investors are always prone to making the decision to sell when the market falls, but giving in to fear is not a wise strategy, because it will not be successful. Keep calm and move in the opposite direction.</p><p>Peter Lynch calls a plunge the best opportunity to make big money: It is often in this kind of stock market crash that huge wealth has a chance to make.</p><p>Soros: The way to get wealth is to recognize the illusion, invest in it, and then quit the game before the illusion is recognized by the public.</p><p>Jim M.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ROG\">Rogers</a>: Buy for what it is worth, sell for what it is crazy.</p><p>What should the average investor do if the stock market plummets?</p><p><b>How do the masters deal with the crash?</b></p><p><b>Buffett: Stay Calm, Hold for the Long Term</b></p><p>In Warren Buffett's view, the best way for investors in the face of violent fluctuations in the stock market should be to stay calm and stick to the investment principle of long-term holding.</p><p>As a stock god with a career spanning more than 50 years, Buffett warned investors in a 2016 interview: \"<b>Don't pay close attention to stock market performance when it goes down. If an investor is worried when the stock market falls, and then thinks about ditching his stock when the stock market recovers, then this investor will not get the desired return in the end.</b>」</p><p>Buffett has always emphasized that long-term investment is an important factor in achieving desirable returns. He believes that the gains from investing in the stock market come from holding shares in quality companies for a long time. If investors buy shares of high-quality companies and hold them for 10, 20, 30 years, they will eventually make good returns.</p><p>Buffett once explained in his annual letter to shareholders that markets are always volatile, so the best option for every investor, regardless of depth of investment experience, is to stay calm.</p><p>He wrote: While usually markets are rational, they occasionally get crazy. It doesn't take much wisdom or a degree in economics for investors to seize opportunities.</p><p>What investors need is simply the ability to ignore market panic or frenzy and focus on the fundamentals. It is also important to be able to maintain a boring, even stupid, willingness for a considerable period of time.</p><p><b>Graham</b></p><p><b>First, never lose money; Second, never forget the number one.</b></p><p>Graham is Buffett's mentor, the father of securities analysis, and the originator of value investing. In September 1929, the Dow rose to a peak of 381, and then began to fall. On October 29, the Dow Jones index plunged 12% on what was described as the \"worst day\" in the 112-year history of the New York Stock Exchange, which was the most famous \"Black Tuesday\" in history.</p><p>In November 1929, the Dow Jones dropped as low as 198 before stabilizing and rebounding. By March 1930, it had risen to 286 points at one point, rebounding by as much as 43%. So many investors think the worst is over and the stock market is about to turn around. Graham thinks so, so he starts to go bargain hunting.</p><p>He copied all good stocks that were very cheap from the perspective of value evaluation. In order to achieve greater returns, he also used margin for leverage. But the stock market rally lasted into April and then began to plummet again, with the Dow Jones falling 33% in 1930 and the fund managed by Graham losing as much as 50.5%.</p><p>By July 1932, the Dow reached a low of 41 points, with the biggest drop of 89% from a high of 381 points. In the same period, Graham's fund lost 78%, and this super bear market almost broke his bank.</p><p>Graham later made a comeback and wrote the investment bibles Securities Analysis and The Smart Investor, summarizing an eternal basic principle of value investing: the margin of safety.</p><p>Safety first, profit second.</p><p><b>Dario: Stay calm, reverse operation</b></p><p>Like Buffett, Dario, founder of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, agrees that investors should remain calm without panicking in the face of a stock market decline.</p><p>'Investors are always prone to selling when the market goes down,' Mr. Dario said, 'but giving in to fear is not a wise strategy because it will not be successful.'</p><p>Instead, when the market goes down, investors need to do the reverse, i.e. when you no longer feel fear, you may need to sell; When you feel fear, you may need to buy in.</p><p>At present, Bridgewater Fund has become the world's largest hedge fund company, with assets under management of up to $150 billion.</p><p>In Principles, Dario shares three things he learned in a market crash: One, you shouldn't be outrageously overconfident and indulge yourself in being swayed by your emotions. No matter how much I know, no matter how diligent I am, I should never confidently make absolute assertions.</p><p>Second, I once again appreciate the value of studying history; Third, it is quite difficult to time the market. One of the essentials to becoming a successful investor is to place risky bets only on those you have high confidence in, and to fully diversify those investments.</p><p>Wise people keep an eye on sound fundamentals through all kinds of ups and downs; While frivolous people follow their feelings, react emotionally, rush to hot things, and give up immediately when they are not hot.</p><p>The safest way to have many advantages without being exposed to unacceptable disadvantages is to make a series of good, unrelated bets that balance and complement each other.</p><p><b>Lynch, Peter J.</b></p><p>The historical law of stock market volatility tells us that all the big falls will pass, and the stock market will always rise higher. Historical experience also shows that the stock market crash is actually a good opportunity to release risks and create investment, and you can buy those excellent company stocks at very low prices. But bargain hunting isn't that simple. Instead of constantly copying the \"bottom\" and being trapped, it is better to wait for the bottom to appear before intervening.</p><p>When the U.S. stock market crashed in 1987, many people went from millionaires to extreme poverty, suffered mental breakdowns and even committed suicide. At that time, Peter Lynch, an American securities superstar, managed more than $10 billion in Magellan Fund. Within a day, the fund's net asset value lost 18%, and the loss was as high as $2 billion.</p><p>Lynch, like all open-end fund managers, had one choice: dump the stock. In order to cope with the extraordinarily large redemption, Lynch had to sell all the shares.</p><p>More than a year later, Peter Lynch still feels frightened when he recalls, \"At that moment, I really wasn't sure whether it was the end of the world, or whether we were about to go into a severe depression, or whether things weren't so bad yet, and it was just Wall Street about to end?\"</p><p>After that, Peter Lynch continued to experience many big stock market falls, but still achieved very successful performance.</p><p>First, don't panic and throw all the stocks at a bargain price. If you are desperate to sell stocks in the midst of a stock market crash, then your selling price will often be very low. The October 1987 market was frightening, but there was no need to sell stocks one day or the next.</p><p>The stock market began to rise steadily in November of that year. By June 1988, the market had rebounded by more than 400 points, which means a gain of over 23%.</p><p>Second, have firm courage to hold good company stocks. Third, dare to buy good company stocks at low prices. Plunges are the best opportunity to make big money: Great wealth is often made in this kind of stock market crash.</p><p><b>Soros</b></p><p>World Economic History is a series based on illusions and lies. The way to gain wealth is to recognize the illusion, invest in it, and then quit the game before the illusion is recognized by the public.</p><p>Before 1987, Soros thought that the Japanese stock market bubble was huge, and shorted Japanese stocks. As a result, it failed miserably, and the Japanese stock market reached a bull in 1989. In a Wall Street commentary, Soros touted that U.S. stocks would be strong and Japanese stocks would crash, and the result was the opposite: U.S. stocks crashed, but Japanese stocks were strong.</p><p>In September 1987, Soros moved billions of dollars of investment from Tokyo to Wall Street. However, it was not Japan's stock market that crashed first, but Wall Street in the United States.</p><p>On October 19th, 1987, the Dow Jones Average in New York, USA, plunged 508 points, a record at that time. Over the next week, the New York stock market slipped. The Japanese stock market has been relatively strong. Soros decided to sell off several large long-term shares he owned.</p><p>Other traders captured the information and took the opportunity to slash down the sold stocks, reducing the cash discount on futures by 20%. Soros lost about $650 million to $800 million in the Wall Street crash.</p><p>Soros became the biggest loser of the disaster after the collapse dropped Quantum Fund's net assets by 26.2%, much larger than the 17% decline in the U.S. stock market.</p><p>In the final analysis, the reason for Soros's fiasco in that year was speculative psychology, and he tried to figure out the market opportunity and went to the situation of huge losses.</p><p>There is no shame in mistakes. It is shame that mistakes are already obvious and have not been corrected. Take risks, beyond reproach. But at the same time, remember never to go all-in-one. It doesn't matter whether it's right or wrong. The key is how much you lose when you're wrong, and how much you make when you're right.</p><p><b>Jim Rogers: Buy for what it's worth, sell for what it's crazy</b></p><p>Wall Street investment guru Jim Rogers once pointed out that you should be patient and wait for a good time, make money and take profits, and then wait for the next opportunity. In this way, you can defeat others.</p><p>The market trend often shows a long-term sluggishness. In order to avoid getting funds into a stagnant market, investors should wait for the catalytic factors that can change the market trend. Buy it for money, sell it crazy.</p><p><b>Fisher, Philip A.</b></p><p>Philip Fisher is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000900\">Hyundai Investments</a>One of the pioneers of theory, the father of growth stock investment strategy, the godfather investment guru, and one of the highly respected and respected investors on Wall Street.</p><p>Learn to spend a lot of time researching and not be in a rush to buy. In a continuously declining market environment, don't buy unfamiliar stocks too quickly.</p><p>In 1929, the U.S. stock market was in the crazy bull market before the collapse, but Fisher found that many industries in the United States were unstable and there was a severe bubble in the stock market.</p><p>In August 1929, he presented a report to senior bank executives that \"the worst big short market in 25 years will unfold.\" This is arguably the most admirable stock market forecast in Fisher's life. Unfortunately, Fisher is \"bearish and long\".</p><p>He said, \"I couldn't help but be confused by the strength of the stock market. So I looked everywhere for some relatively cheap stocks because they hadn't risen well yet.\" Fisher didn't survive the sudden collapse of the U.S. stock market in October 1929. He suffered heavy losses in the stock market crash, and Fisher lost all his money.</p><p>Fisher began to understand that the main factor in determining stock prices was not the P/E of the current year, but the expected P/E of the next few years. He said that if you can cultivate your ability to determine the possible performance of a certain stock in the next few years within a reasonable upper and lower limit, you can find a key, which can not only avoid losses, but also make huge profits.</p><p><b>Miller, Bill J.</b></p><p>「<b>I often remind my fellow analysts that your information about the company is 100% representative of the company's past, while the valuation of the stock is 100% dependent on the future.</b>」</p><p>In the 15 years from 1991 to 2005, the Legg Mason Value Trust managed by Miller successively beat the S&P 500 index, creating the most brilliant fund manager performance record in history, and is praised as the most successful fund manager of this era. However, in just one year, the honor was ruined by his own hands.</p><p>During the subprime mortgage crisis, the stocks of many originally excellent companies fell sharply in succession. Miller believed that investors had overreacted, so he bought against the market. He thought the crisis would be a great opportunity to make money, but it turned into the worst bear market since the Great Depression.</p><p>Although his reverse investment decisions over the past 15 years have proved correct afterwards, this time it has fallen miserably. Miller's stock list is like the \"martyrs list\" of this crisis: AIG, Bear Stearns, Freddie Mac, Citigroup, Washington<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKMU\">Mutual banking</a>Etc.</p><p>In an interview in 2008, Miller, 58, said: \"From the beginning, I could not properly estimate the severity of this liquidity crisis.\"</p><p>Although Miller used to make money from market panic, he said that this time he didn't expect the crisis to be so serious and the fundamental problems so deep that all the high-quality listed companies that used to be market leaders collapsed.</p><p>\"I'm still inexperienced,\" Miller said. \"Every decision to buy stocks is wrong. It's terrible.\"</p><p>Lesson Learned \"Any outperforming portfolio will succeed over a certain period of time because it has the insurance of price misalignment. The market is wrong about this future figure. We use a combination of factors to identify price misalignment by comparing the market, the company's valuation with our own valuation of the company.\"</p><p><b>Stock Market Plunges, What Do Ordinary Investors Do?</b></p><p><b>Situation 1: The stock in hand has fallen to the cost zone</b></p><p>Suggestion: In this situation, cautious investors should choose to leave the market, and more aggressive investors should set a stop-loss price, and then observe for a day or two before making a decision. Don't kill blindly, and don't have emotions about the stocks you buy. At this moment, your mind must be clear.</p><p><b>Situation 2: The stock in hand has already lost money</b></p><p>Suggestion: This kind of loss also needs to be treated by category. Investors can check the relevant information. If the stocks in their hands belong to the fund's heavy stocks, then don't blindly cut their positions. Even in the case of a rapid plunge in the market, they can cover their positions in batches, spread the cost, and fight with the fund to the end. (This suggestion is not suitable for use in the case of a bear market decline or a stock market crash)</p><p>However, if it is found by checking the data that the main force of the stock is mainly manipulated by individual large investors, investors should resolutely get out of the game and keep cash for greater initiative when the market of such stocks continues to be poor. Because the main force of this kind of stock generally won't protect the market when the market really plummets.</p><p>In addition, there are some stocks with relatively light transactions, and there are no obvious signs of main intervention, so we must set a stop-loss price. The nature of this stock is mainly to follow the trend. Once it falls below the long-term platform, we must resolutely leave the market.</p><p><b>Situation 3: Half money and half stocks</b></p><p>Suggestion: If investors are profitable in this part of their stocks, and the market trend is always unclear, they should sell out the stocks and keep cash. After all, there are many opportunities in the market, and only by keeping cash can you have a greater voice in the market.</p><p>If this part of the stocks in their hands has lost money, then investors should choose to quickly replenish the stocks in their hands after the market drops sharply and shows a steady trend. However, if the stock increases greatly on the same day after covering the position, it can be made in disguise T +0 on the same day to lock in some profits.</p><p><b>Situation 4: You want to enter the market with money in your hands</b></p><p>Suggestion: If you are an aggressive investor and have a certain ability to read the market, you can grab a rebound according to the market situation, but you should focus on short-term thinking.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8844d34a68c737501939fc425fd6195b","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2135983438","content_text":"巴菲特、达里奥、索罗斯等大师是如何应对股市下跌的？巴菲特表示当股市走跌时，不要密切关注股市表现，要保持冷静，长期持有。格雷厄姆：第一，永远不要亏损；第二，永远不要忘记第一条。达里奥表示，投资者在市场出现下跌时总是容易做出抛售的决定，但屈从恐惧并不是个明智的策略，因为这样做并不会取得成功，要保持镇定，反向操作。彼得林奇称暴跌是赚大钱的最好机会：巨大的财富往往就是在这种股市大跌中才有机会赚到。索罗斯：要获得财富，做法就是认清其假象，投入其中，然后在假象被公众认识之前退出游戏。吉姆·罗杰斯：买其所值，卖其疯狂。如果股市暴跌，普通投资者应该怎么办？大师们如何应对大跌？巴菲特：保持冷静，长期持有在股神巴菲特看来，投资者在面对股市剧烈波动时，最好的方法应该是保持冷静，并坚守长期持有的投资原则。作为拥有长达五十多年投资生涯的股神，巴菲特曾在2016年的一次采访中告诫投资者：「当股市走跌时，不要密切关注股市表现。如果一个投资者遇到股市下跌就忧心忡忡，然后想着等股市回升时就抛掉手中的股票，那么这种投资者最终不会获得理想的回报。」一直以来，巴菲特都在强调长期投资是取得理想收益的重要因素。他认为，投资股市所获得的收益来自于长期持有优质公司的股票。如果投资者购买优质公司的股票，且持有这些股票10年、20年、30年之久，那么他们最终将会取得不错的回报。巴菲特曾在致股东的年度信中解释说，市场总是处于波动之中，因此对于每个投资者来说，无论投资经验深浅，最好的选择就是保持镇定。他写道：虽然通常情况下市场是理性的，但市场偶尔也会有疯狂之举。对于投资者而言，抓住机遇并不需要太多的智慧或经济学位。投资者需要的，仅仅是无视市场恐慌或狂热的能力，并将注意力集中在基本面上即可。另外，能在相当长的时期内保持无趣、甚至是愚蠢的意愿也十分重要。格雷厄姆第一，永远不要亏损；第二，永远不要忘记第一条。格雷厄姆是巴菲特的导师，证券分析之父，价值投资的鼻祖。1929年9月，道琼斯指数最高涨到381点，随后开始下跌。10月29日，道琼斯指数暴跌12%，这一天被形容为纽约交易所112年历史上「最糟糕的一天」，这就是历史上最著名的「黑色星期二」。1929年11月，道琼斯指数最低跌到198点，然后企稳反弹。到1930年3月，一度涨到286点，反弹幅度高达43%。于是许多投资者认为最坏的时期已经过去了，股市将要大反转。格雷厄姆也这样认为，于是他开始进场抄底。他抄的都是从价值评估上看非常便宜的好股票，为了取得更大的收益率，他还利用保证金进行杠杆操作。但股市反弹持续到4月份后又开始暴跌，道琼斯指数在1930年下跌33%，而格雷厄姆管理的基金亏损高达50.5%。至1932年7月，道琼斯指数达到最低点41点，从最高点381点算起，最大跌幅高达89%，而同期格雷厄姆管理的基金亏损高达78%，这场超级大熊市几乎让他倾家荡产。格雷厄姆后来重新东山再起，写出投资圣经《证券分析》和《聪明的投资者》，总结出一个永恒的价值投资基本原则：安全边际。安全第一，赢利第二。达里奥：保持镇定，反向操作和巴菲特一样，全球最大对冲基金桥水基金创始人达里奥也认为，投资者在面对股市下跌时不必惊慌，应该保持冷静。达里奥表示，投资者在市场出现下跌时总是容易做出抛售的决定，但屈从恐惧并不是个明智的策略，因为这样做并不会取得成功。相反，在市场走跌时，投资者需要进行反向操作，即当你不再感到恐惧时，你可能需要卖出；当你感到恐惧时，你也许需要买进。目前，桥水基金已成为全球最大对冲基金公司，管理的资产规模高达1500亿美元。在《原则》一书中，达里奥分享了他在市场崩盘中学到的三件事情：第一，不应该离谱地过度自信，并放纵自己被情绪左右。无论我知道多少东西，无论我多么勤奋，我都不应该自信地做出绝对的断言。第二，我再次领会到研究历史的价值；第三，把握市场的时机相当困难。成为一个成功投资者的要决之一，是只对你有高度信心的投资对象进行冒险押注，并对这些对象进行充分的分散投资。明智的人在经历各种沉浮时都始终盯稳健的基本面；而轻浮的人跟着感觉走，做出情绪化的反应，对于热门的东西一拥而上，不热的时候又马上放弃。想要拥有很多优势，而又不暴露于不可接受的劣势之下，最稳妥的方式是做出一系列良好的、互不相关的押注，彼此平衡，相互补充。彼得·林奇股市波动的历史规律告诉我们，所有的大跌都会过去，股市永远会涨得更高。历史经验还表明，股市大跌其实是释放风险，创造投资的一次好机会，能以很低的价格买入那些很优秀的公司股票。但抄底并没有那么简单。与其去不断抄「底」，不断被套，不如等底部出现后再介入不迟。1987年美国股市大崩盘时，很多人由百万富翁沦为赤贫，精神崩溃甚至自杀。当时美国证券界超级巨星彼得·林奇管理着100多亿美元的麦哲伦基金，一天之内基金资产净值损失了18%，损失高达20亿美元。林奇和所有开放式基金经理一样，只有一个选择：抛售股票。为了应付非比寻常的巨额赎回，林奇不得不把股票都卖了。过了一年多，彼得·林奇回忆起来仍然感到害怕，「在那一时刻，我真的不能确定，到底是到了世界末日，还是我们即将陷入一场严重的经济大萧条，又或者是事情还没变得那么糟糕，仅仅只是华尔街即将完蛋？」之后彼得林奇继续经历过很多次股市大跌，但仍然取得了非常成功的绩效。第一，不要因恐慌而全部贱价抛出股票。如果你在股市暴跌中绝望地卖出股票，那么你的卖出价格往往会非常之低。1987年10月的行情让人感到惊恐不安，但没必要在这一天或第二天把股票抛出。当年11月份股市开始稳步上扬。到1988年6月，市场已经反弹了400多点，也就是说涨幅超过了23%。第二，对持有的好公司股票要有坚定的勇气。第三，要敢于低价买入好公司股票。暴跌是赚大钱的最好机会：巨大的财富往往就是在这种股市大跌中才有机会赚到。索罗斯世界经济史是一部基于假象和谎言的连续剧。要获得财富，做法就是认清其假象，投入其中，然后在假象被公众认识之前退出游戏。索罗斯1987年前认为日本股市泡沫巨大，放空日本股票，结果惨败，日本股市牛到了1989年。索罗斯在华尔街评论上鼓吹美国股市会坚挺，日本股市将会崩盘，而结果正好相反：美国股市崩盘了，日本股市却坚挺。1987年9月，索罗斯把几十亿美元的投资从东京转移到了华尔街。然而，首先出现大崩溃的不是日本证券市场，而恰恰是美国的华尔街。1987年10月19日，美国纽约道琼斯平均指数狂跌508点，创当时历史记录。在接下来的一个星期里，纽约股市一路下滑。而日本股市却相对坚挺。索罗斯决定抛售手中所持有的几个大的长期股票份额。其他的交易商捕捉到有关信息后，借机猛烈向下砸被抛售的股票，使期货的现金折扣降了20%。索罗斯在这场华尔街大崩溃中，损失了大约6.5亿到8亿美元。这场大崩溃使量子基金净资产跌落26.2%，远大于17%的美国股市的跌幅，索罗斯成了这场灾难的最大失败者。索罗斯当年的惨败原因归根结底是投机心理作祟，揣摩市场时机一意孤行的走到了巨额亏损的境地。错误并不可耻，可耻的是错误已经显而易见了还不去修正。承担风险，无可指责。但同时记住千万不能孤注一掷。对错都不重要，关键是弄错的时候你损失了多少，判断正确的时候又赚了多少。吉姆·罗杰斯：买其所值，卖其疯狂华尔街投资大师吉姆·罗杰斯曾指出，应该耐心等待好时机，赚了钱获利了结，然后等待下一次机会。如此，才可以战胜别人。市场走势时常会呈现长期的低迷不振，为了避免使资金陷入一潭死水的市场中，投资者应该等待能够改变市场走势的催化因素出现。买其所值，卖其疯狂。菲利普·费雪菲利普·费雪是现代投资理论的开路先锋之一，成长股投资策略之父，教父级的投资大师，华尔街极受尊重和推崇的投资家之一。要学会花很多时间来研究，并不急于买入。在一个连续下跌的市场环境中，不要过快地买入那些不熟悉的股票。1929年美国股市处在崩溃前的疯狂牛市中，但费雪发现美国许多产业前景不稳，股市有严重泡沫。1929年8月，他向银行高级主管提交了一份「25年来最严重的大空头市场将展开。」的报告。这可以说是费雪一生中最令人赞叹的股市预测，可惜的是费雪「看空做多」。他说：「我免不了被股市的魁力所惑。于是到处寻找一些还算便宜的股票，因为它们还没涨到位。」1929年10月美股突然崩溃，费雪也没有幸免于难，在股灾中他损失惨重，费雪亦血本无归。费雪开始明白，决定股票价格的主要因素，不是当年的P/E，而是未来几年的预期P/E。他说，若能培养自己的能力，在合理的上下限内确定某只股票未来几年可能的业绩，就能找到一把钥匙，不但能避免亏损，更能赚得厚利。比尔·米勒「我经常提醒我的分析师们，你们关于公司的信息100%代表了公司的过去，而股票的估值100%取决于未来。」米勒管理的Legg Mason价值型信托基金在1991—2005年这15年当中，连续战胜标准普尔500指数，创造了有史以来最辉煌的基金经理业绩记录，被誉为这个时代最成功的基金经理。然而，在短短一年时间里，这个荣誉就被他亲手毁掉了。在次贷危机中，很多原来非常优秀的公司股票连续大幅下跌，米勒认为投资者反应过度了，于是逆市买入。他本以为那次危机是一次大好的赚钱良机，结果危机却变成大萧条之后最惨重的大熊市。虽然过去15年来他逆向操作的投资决策事后都证明是正确的，但这次却栽得很惨。米勒的股票清单就像是这次危机中的「烈士榜」：AIG、贝尔斯登、房地美、花旗集团、华盛顿互助银行等。2008年，已经58岁的米勒接受采访时说：「从一开始我就没能恰当地估计到这场流动性危机的严重性」。尽管米勒以前经常从市场恐慌中赚钱，但他说，这次自己没想到危机会这么严重，基本面的问题如此之深，以至于曾贵为市场领头羊的优质上市公司居然统统倒下了。「我还是缺乏经验」，米勒说，「每一个买进股票的决定都是错的，真是太可怕了。」经验教训「任何超常发挥的投资组合，在某段时间内能成功，是因为具有价格错位的保险性。市场对这个未来数的估计是错的。我们通过比较市场，对此公司的估值以及我们自己对公司的估值，用多种要素组合的方法来找出价格错位。」股市暴跌，普通投资者怎么办？状况一：手中股票已经跌到成本区建议：在这种状况下，谨慎的投资者应该选择离场，比较激进的也要设置止损价，然后观察一两天再作出决定。不要盲目杀跌，也不要对自己买的股票有情绪，在这个时刻，头脑一定要清醒。状况二：手中股票已经出现亏损建议：这种亏损也需要分类对待，投资者可查看相关资料，如果手中股票属于基金重仓股，那么就不要盲目斩仓，甚至在大盘快速暴跌的情况下，可分批补仓，摊低成本，和基金死磕到底。（如遇熊市下跌过程中或股灾的时候，不适合用这条建议）而如果通过查看资料发现，该股票主力主要是由个别大户操纵的，这样的股票在市场持续不佳的情况下，投资者应该坚决出局，保住现金争取更大的主动性。因为这种股票的主力在大盘真正暴跌时一般不会护盘。另外，还有一些成交比较清淡的个股，没有明显主力介入的迹象，那么一定要设立止损价位，这种股票的性质主要以跟风为主，一旦跌破长期形成的平台，一定要坚决离场。状况三：手中一半是钱一半是股票建议：如果投资者这部分股票处于盈利状态，而市场趋势始终看不明朗，那么应将股票出掉，保留现金。毕竟市场中的机会很多，保留现金才能在市场中有更大的话语权。如果是手中这部分股票已经亏损，那么投资者应该选择市场在大幅下跌之后，并出现走稳趋向的时候，迅速补充自己手中的股票。而如果补仓后，该股当天涨幅较大，可当天做变相T+0，锁定一部分利润。状况四：手中都是钱想进场建议：如果是激进型的投资者，并有一定看盘能力的，可以根据市场情况抢反弹，但应以短线思维为主。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576579618783903","authorId":"3576579618783903","name":"爱上投资学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e312fbf8df67faa6e46a19ef6992c34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3576579618783903","authorIdStr":"3576579618783903"},"content":"Stay calm. . It's important. .","text":"Stay calm. . It's important. .","html":"Stay calm. . It's important. ."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124093614,"gmtCreate":1624703134738,"gmtModify":1703843899134,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/124093614","repostId":"1125653339","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9039991087,"gmtCreate":1645866831994,"gmtModify":1676534071609,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"No&nbsp;","listText":"No&nbsp;","text":"No","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039991087","repostId":"1168359400","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1746,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576579618783903","authorId":"3576579618783903","name":"爱上投资学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e312fbf8df67faa6e46a19ef6992c34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3576579618783903","authorIdStr":"3576579618783903"},"content":"25bp is better than 50bp！","text":"25bp is better than 50bp！","html":"25bp is better than 50bp！"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375852643,"gmtCreate":1619326441682,"gmtModify":1704722498292,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/375852643","repostId":"1180924199","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576579618783903","authorId":"3576579618783903","name":"爱上投资学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e312fbf8df67faa6e46a19ef6992c34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3576579618783903","authorIdStr":"3576579618783903"},"content":"Not good. . .","text":"Not good. . .","html":"Not good. . ."},{"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"content":"Are you my friend, every time I just buy the share... You said will drop [Cry] [Cry] [Cry]","text":"Are you my friend, every time I just buy the share... You said will drop [Cry] [Cry] [Cry]","html":"Are you my friend, every time I just buy the share... You said will drop [Cry] [Cry] [Cry]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":105832391,"gmtCreate":1620287805713,"gmtModify":1704341363747,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/105832391","repostId":"1180972135","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576579618783903","authorId":"3576579618783903","name":"爱上投资学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e312fbf8df67faa6e46a19ef6992c34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3576579618783903","authorIdStr":"3576579618783903"},"content":"The government's move is to popularize safe and effective vaccines as soon as possible and end the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic. She also said that the US government will continue to strengthen cooperation with the private sector and all possible partners, expand the manufacture and distribution of vaccines, and strive to increase the raw materials needed to produce these vaccines. This move by the United States may expand the global supply of novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccines and narrow the vaccination gap between rich and poor countries.","text":"The government's move is to popularize safe and effective vaccines as soon as possible and end the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic. She also said that the US government will continue to strengthen cooperation with the private sector and all possible partners, expand the manufacture and distribution of vaccines, and strive to increase the raw materials needed to produce these vaccines. This move by the United States may expand the global supply of novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccines and narrow the vaccination gap between rich and poor countries.","html":"The government's move is to popularize safe and effective vaccines as soon as possible and end the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic. She also said that the US government will continue to strengthen cooperation with the private sector and all possible partners, expand the manufacture and distribution of vaccines, and strive to increase the raw materials needed to produce these vaccines. This move by the United States may expand the global supply of novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccines and narrow the vaccination gap between rich and poor countries."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132361379,"gmtCreate":1622072693791,"gmtModify":1704178783783,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/132361379","repostId":"1116624470","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576579618783903","authorId":"3576579618783903","name":"爱上投资学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e312fbf8df67faa6e46a19ef6992c34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3576579618783903","authorIdStr":"3576579618783903"},"content":"$Ideal Car (LI) $, hope it will risk 20%!","text":"$Ideal Car (LI) $, hope it will risk 20%!","html":"$Ideal Car (LI) $, hope it will risk 20%!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}