han妈 personal page - To The Moon

han妈

han妈

No personal profile

3Follow

11Followers

0Topic

0Badge

2022-07-14

q

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-07-14

ok

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-07-11

q

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-07-11

OK

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-07-10

a

Who is the next "domino card" after Abe falls?

2022-07-10

ok

Who is the next "domino card" after Abe falls?

2022-06-27

y

The crisis is still fermenting! Currency Circle Hedge Fund Giants Come to the Verge of Default

2022-06-22

k

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-06-22

ｏ

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-06-18

ok

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-06-14

q

"Di Wang" was actively sung by brokers, and CITIC shouted "trillion new starting point"!

2022-06-14

i

"Di Wang" was actively sung by brokers, and CITIC shouted "trillion new starting point"!

2022-06-13

Q

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-06-13

Okay

FOMC is approaching, how does rate hike expect to perform?

2022-06-10

q

U.S. regulators launch investigation into some semiconductor devices as semiconductor sector moves lower

2022-06-10

u

U.S. regulators launch investigation into some semiconductor devices as semiconductor sector moves lower

2022-06-08

q

Financial OneConnect jumped 40% in the session, and the company will raise the cap on share buybacks

2022-06-08

y

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-06-06

g

U.S. streaming concept stocks rose broadly, fuboTV, Google rose nearly 4%

2022-06-05

R

Sorry, the original content has been removed

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3575347610709013","uuid":"3575347610709013","gmtCreate":1612253587147,"gmtModify":1758184082577,"name":"han妈","pinyin":"hanmhanma","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":11,"headSize":3,"tweetSize":370,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-1","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Boss Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $100,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfc27c1ee0e25db1c93e9d0b641101","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43908c142f8a33c78f5bdf0e2897488","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82165ff19cb8a786e8919f92acee5213","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.04.15","exceedPercentage":"60.72%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-3","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":" Tiger Idol","description":"Join the tiger community for 1500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.03.14","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.08.11","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-1","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Elite Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 30","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"60.90%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":1,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":9076110192,"gmtCreate":1657808496816,"gmtModify":1676536064988,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"q","listText":"q","text":"q","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9076110192","repostId":"1142262047","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3524,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9076110971,"gmtCreate":1657808489793,"gmtModify":1676536064988,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9076110971","repostId":"1142262047","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4411,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071506308,"gmtCreate":1657549288904,"gmtModify":1676536023652,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"q","listText":"q","text":"q","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071506308","repostId":"1123417061","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3776,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071506945,"gmtCreate":1657549279088,"gmtModify":1676536023651,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071506945","repostId":"1123417061","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071309883,"gmtCreate":1657466809643,"gmtModify":1676536010807,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"a","listText":"a","text":"a","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071309883","repostId":"1158704109","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158704109","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657455012,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158704109?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-10 20:10","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Who is the next \"domino card\" after Abe falls?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158704109","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"安倍倒下后日本央行将如何应对通胀的新挑战？对市场有何影响？","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>From the accidental death of OPEC Secretary-General Barkindo to the accidental attack on former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The market narrative that connects these events may be<b>Inflation has evolved from an economic problem to a political and social problem</b>(Of course, there are religious factors behind Abe's assassination): Oil prices are an important trigger for high inflation in 2022, but OPEC has been delayed in effectively increasing output to alleviate the tightening supply and demand pattern (Figure 1); However, the Bank of Japan still adheres to YCC (yield curve control policy) and policy easing without restriction despite rising inflation. The current central bank governor Haruhiko Kuroda is a supporter of Abenomics (stimulating the economy through quantitative easing and expanding fiscal spending) (Figure 2).</p><p>In this report, we want to analyze the latter aspect:<b>How will the Bank of Japan respond to the new challenge of inflation after Abe's fall? What is the impact on the market?</b></p><p>We don't think Japan will abandon Abenomics and YCC policies, but in the context of overseas inflation being more unbearable than recession, there are at least three risks to be aware of in the second half of the year:</p><p><ul><li>The Bank of Japan may choose to adjust the fluctuation range of YCC policy at one time and beyond expectations, which will undoubtedly aggravate the pressure on the global bond market in stages;</p><p></li><li>The downward inflection point of U.S. Treasury yields may be delayed until the fourth quarter or even later;</p><p></li><li>Domestically, the strengthening of the inflation and monetary policy normalization narrative will lead to more upward pressure on bond yields.</p><p></li></ul><b>For the YCC policy, the attitude of the Bank of Japan will be to change rather than abandon it. We answer three main questions: Why is change needed? Why won't you abandon it? How to change?</b></p><p>After the pandemic, inflation returned and economic volatility increased significantly, while the YCC framework launched in 2016 was positioned at low inflation and low volatility. The Bank of Japan launched the YCC policy in September 2016, fixing the long-term Treasury Bond yield at around 0%, which has its own specific economic environment and policy demands: on the one hand, the original intention of the YCC policy is to help Japan get out of the long-standing deflation dilemma; On the other hand, the two main functions of YCC are: stimulating exports and introducing imported inflation through the depreciation of Japanese yen exchange rate; Create a favorable financing environment for expanded government spending.</p><p>At present, the anachronism of YCC is highlighted in three points: First, after the baptism of the epidemic,<b>The world has gradually emerged from the deflationary shadow of the past decade,</b>At present and in the next decade, we may usher in an era of high inflation and high volatility, and Japan is also not immune, which is contrary to the original setting of YCC policy; Second, in the context of high economic volatility,<b>The pro-cyclical YCC policy will further amplify the economic turmoil,</b>This is obviously unsuitable for Japan's aging, low-desire society; Third,<b>Lack of flexible adjustment mechanisms, vulnerable to speculative funds</b>。 The frequency of YCC range adjustment is very low, and the range has only been widened in 2018 and 2021 since its launch in 2016.</p><p>The main reason for the procyclicity of YCC policy is that the long-term Treasury Bond yield, which is the intermediary target of regulation, is procyclical. In order to prevent bond yields from falling below the lower limit when the economy is in downturn and inflation is sluggish, the Bank of Japan needs to buy bonds cautiously. During the recession caused by the epidemic in 2020, the balance sheet expansion of the Bank of Japan was much slower than that of European and American central banks (Figure 5); In the case of overheating economy and rising inflation, in order to prevent bond yields from rising above the upper limit, the Bank of Japan has to increase its bond purchases, which may add fuel to inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ff740a636ff810d6a3b8ab15a424690\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The most attractive point for speculative funds is that YCC policy is inflexible and its adjustment often lags behind. The basic structure of YCC policy is a stable hub (as the policy target, it is now 0%) and a fluctuation range that can be adjusted wide and narrow (but the adjustment frequency is on the low side).<b>This is quite similar to the pricing of RMB exchange rate before August 2015.</b>As a result, under the pressure of economic downturn and speculative funds, the pricing of RMB exchange rate has abandoned the anchor center, but it still retains the limit of fluctuation range (Figure 6, the current daily fluctuation of RMB against the US dollar still has an upper and lower limit of 2%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cd11e9a93e0b7772ec60eb274c499f2\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, we believe that the Bank of Japan will not give up YCC, and the Japanese government will not give up Abenomics. First, in the short term,<b>There are lessons learned from RBA abandoning YCC and bond yields runaway</b>(Figure 7), Japanese bond yields and yen upside caused by Japan's abandonment of YCC will make the Japanese economy weaker. Second, from the perspective of medium and long-term policies,<b>\"Abenomics\" is the right way out for Japanese economy</b>And the YCC policy is an important part of it. In Japan, where the population is aging and the youth are lying flat, the borrowing demand of households and enterprises is still weak. Maintaining export competitiveness through low exchange rate and active fiscal expenditure play a major role in stimulating aggregate demand (Figures 8 and 9), and the important pillars behind it are looser monetary policy and lower financing costs compared with other economies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1fbc2262fa3278c30046afd92d63e27\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Third, in terms of national and policy positioning, at least in finance, Japan has chosen to deeply bind the United States, and has long given up its ambition of internationalizing the yen, which means that unlike the Federal Reserve,<b>Guaranteeing low-cost domestic fiscal financing and supporting the economy rank first in Japan's monetary policy system, even if the Bank of Japan holds more than 50% of Japanese bonds in the market, and it will not hesitate to squeeze out foreign investors</b>On the contrary, whether the United States needs to maintain the global reserve status of the US dollar or China needs to improve the internationalization of RMB, it needs to ensure that the bond yield is at a reasonable level, and the liquidity and opening of the bond market to the outside world.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82f3209f9effe35bc9d550839efe4be1\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>How to change? In the second half of the year, the Bank of Japan will raise the interest rate of the YCC ceiling to more than 0.5% (now 0.25%), and it is likely to take a one-step approach that exceeds market expectations. Since the Bank of Japan mainly anchors 10-year Japanese bonds, which causes the yield curve of Japanese bonds to convex downward at the 10-year maturity (Figure 12), we estimate the reasonable position of the yield of 10-year Japanese bonds by the steepness of the curve under normal circumstances. Taking the 7-year maturity as an example (calculated based on the spread of 10-year and 7-year maturities at the recent highs of 0.27% and 0.19%), without changing the benchmark policy rate, the ceiling level of 10-year Japanese bonds is at least above 0.46% (Figure 13). Considering the market sentiment and the habit of the Bank of Japan to adjust the range (the magnitude is usually an integer multiple of 5bp),<b>The YCC range is likely to widen to ±0.5% in the second half of the year, essentially equivalent to at least 25bp in rate hike.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6e8684aa6a0873c78c54ffaa1be3e02\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Looking forward, in the era of high inflation and high volatility, YCC may evolve into an interest rate ceiling mechanism in stages</b>The policy signal of the ceiling interest rate adjustment is clearer than that of the central interest rate. On the premise of controlling the financing cost of Japanese bonds, the Bank of Japan can conduct counter-cyclical operations by adjusting the ceiling interest rate and bond purchases more frequently.</p><p>We believe that the reason why the Bank of Japan will make a one-time, substantial and exceeding market expectations is mainly that historical experience shows that adjusting rigid pricing mechanisms (such as fixed exchange rate mechanisms) is not appropriate to fully guide market expectations and progress step by step, which will lead to more speculative fund bets and arbitrage, resulting in greater market turmoil.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e637abc9b7fb9feb7d02473e0f0ccc3b\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If the Bank of Japan does this, will Japanese bonds collapse? No, in fact, the Bank of Japan is not passive in its operation. On the one hand,<b>The Bank of Japan is the largest holder in Japan's Treasury Bond spot market</b>The proportion of overseas institutions is only about 10% (Figure 14); On the other hand, speculative funds short Japanese bonds mainly through futures (better liquidity). In the case of insufficient liquidity in the spot market (inconvenient futures delivery),<b>Short-selling futures are mainly short-term and phased</b>(Mainly before the Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting, Figure 15). The pressure of the Bank of Japan mainly comes from the political and social public opinion level.</p><p>However, the Bank of Japan's initiative to widen the YCC range will lead to another pressure on the global bond market in the short term. As the last stronghold of the \"doves\" of monetary policy in advanced economies, the Bank of Japan's turn will have milestone symbolic significance. In addition, as the economy with the largest foreign investment position in the world, the changes in interest rates and exchange rates caused by the changes in YCC are likely to make Japan adjust (and probably reduce) its exposure to foreign fixed income investments, further aggravating market turmoil.</p><p>Yen: Depreciation pressure has always existed before the Bank of Japan acted, especially before and after the interest rate meeting. On the one hand, before the Bank of Japan's action, the continuous rate hike of the Federal Reserve will objectively widen the interest rate difference between Japan and the United States, resulting in the weakening of the yen; On the other hand, before the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve turns, funds will continue to bet on its adjustment policy before the interest rate meeting of the Bank of Japan. While institutions short Japanese bond futures, shorting Japanese yen is a good hedging position (the Bank of Japan adjusts its policy, and Japanese bond futures make money; The Bank of Japan stands still, and the short yen makes money).</p><p>We see 140 as a hurdle for the yen. Japan's import prices increased by more than 40 percent in May year-on-year, a new high since 1980.<b>The depreciation of the yen contributed about 40% of the growth rate.</b>Due to rising prices, the disapproval rate of Kishida's cabinet has risen to a high of 27% in July since taking office. We believe that after the yen falls below 140 yuan, social and political pressure will force the Bank of Japan to reevaluate its current policy, and the Japanese Ministry of Finance will also intervene in foreign exchange in due course.</p><p>Regarding the spillover impact of Shinzo Abe's assassination and the \"gray rhino\" of Japan's monetary policy in the second half of the year, we think we are mainly concerned about two points:<b>First, the downward turning point of U.S. bond yields may come later than before, and second, the pressure of domestic bond yields to rise in the second half of the year may be greater.</b></p><p>The downward inflection point in U.S. bond yields will appear later, perhaps not until the fourth quarter or even later. A series of recent events have shown<b>The current determination of European and American central banks to tighten policy should not be underestimated</b>。<b>We believe that the trend characteristics of U.S. debt in 2022 may need to refer to the 1970s and 1980s,</b>Since the 21st century, the pattern that the downward inflection point of U.S. bond yields appeared before the recession is no longer applicable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d12b56f4d11a290edbf9929ab140588d\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Since the 21st century, the important reason why the yield peg of 10-year U.S. Treasury tends to appear before recession is<b>The Federal Reserve tends to take the lead in cutting interest rates forward when downward pressure on the economy is high</b>(Figure 16), but current monetary policy operations under high inflation may be more like the 1970s-1980s, with policy shifts often occurring after the start of a recession, which also leads to bond yield highs (or secondary highs) occurring during a recession (Figure 17).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ada6ca2043944da4ba1a40179b1f3d9\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition, the global \"aftershocks\" brought about by changes in Japan's monetary policy, the rapid recovery of China's economy in the third quarter, and the Biden administration's unusual emphasis on inflation ahead of the November midterm elections. These factors will lead to a downward inflection point in U.S. bond yields that may not occur until the fourth quarter.</p><p>For China, putting aside the grand narrative of geopolitics and anti-globalization, from the perspective of market logic, the upward pressure on bond yields will be greater in the second half of the year. We tend to think that the yield of 10-year bonds will stand at 2.90% in stages in the second half of the year, touching 3%:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f302c8709a5fb3156a0feae16b77a4bb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>From the perspective of macro environment and market logic, overseas markets are suffering from inflation and recession, but at home, at least in the third quarter, the rapid economic recovery, the recovery of the service industry and the accelerated rise of pork may lead to CPI staging 3 or even exceeding market expectations, superimposing overseas inflation narratives to fanfare the flames, which is obviously not good news for the bond market; While<b>The experience of surging pork prices and falling bond interest rates in 2019 is not of reference significance in 2022</b>— — At that time, the macro background was that global inflation was sluggish, and the central banks turned to easing one after another under the weak fundamentals, which was quite different from this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c6c0293c9458a529f4248e446009355\" tg-width=\"802\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From the external environment, before Japan's monetary policy adjustment, the \"Asian currency war\" led by the depreciation of the yen has not yet ended</b>Even with the aura of tariff reduction and exemption of the United States on China, there is still pressure of depreciation of the RMB, and the \"firmness\" of the yield of the US dollar and US bonds is superimposed. In addition to the logic of returning to normal, monetary policy has added a layer of internal and external game color.<b>How to balance exchange rate depreciation and stable inflation expectations will bring additional uncertainty to the bond market.</b></p><p>Once the logic of \"recovery + inflation + monetary policy returns to normalization + limiting imported inflation\" is formed,<b>De-leverage of bond market will accelerate the adjustment of bond market</b>。</p><p>For the domestic equity market,<b>Under the inflation narrative, the downward inflection point of long-term U.S. bond yields is postponed, the domestic bond market is facing adjustment, and the risk of \"gray rhino\" from the Bank of Japan is superimposed. We will be more cautious about the performance of growth stocks in the third quarter than the market</b>Especially some sectors with rapid valuation recovery and hot transactions in the second quarter need to control risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caf9e145bba244c2267f601c20b4f133\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Risk warning:</p><p>Under the tightening of overseas monetary policies, external demand declined, and the spread of the domestic epidemic exceeded market expectations; In the third quarter, Europe and the United States accelerated into a deep recession, European and American central banks were forced to turn ahead of schedule, long-term bond yields fell ahead of schedule, and Japan's YCC policy pressure decreased; In the second half of the year, OPEC greatly increased production beyond expectations, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict reached a consensus. The substantial improvement in crude oil supply led to the fall of oil prices and the easing of global inflationary pressure.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Who is the next \"domino card\" after Abe falls?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWho is the next \"domino card\" after Abe falls?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">川阅全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-10 20:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>From the accidental death of OPEC Secretary-General Barkindo to the accidental attack on former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The market narrative that connects these events may be<b>Inflation has evolved from an economic problem to a political and social problem</b>(Of course, there are religious factors behind Abe's assassination): Oil prices are an important trigger for high inflation in 2022, but OPEC has been delayed in effectively increasing output to alleviate the tightening supply and demand pattern (Figure 1); However, the Bank of Japan still adheres to YCC (yield curve control policy) and policy easing without restriction despite rising inflation. The current central bank governor Haruhiko Kuroda is a supporter of Abenomics (stimulating the economy through quantitative easing and expanding fiscal spending) (Figure 2).</p><p>In this report, we want to analyze the latter aspect:<b>How will the Bank of Japan respond to the new challenge of inflation after Abe's fall? What is the impact on the market?</b></p><p>We don't think Japan will abandon Abenomics and YCC policies, but in the context of overseas inflation being more unbearable than recession, there are at least three risks to be aware of in the second half of the year:</p><p><ul><li>The Bank of Japan may choose to adjust the fluctuation range of YCC policy at one time and beyond expectations, which will undoubtedly aggravate the pressure on the global bond market in stages;</p><p></li><li>The downward inflection point of U.S. Treasury yields may be delayed until the fourth quarter or even later;</p><p></li><li>Domestically, the strengthening of the inflation and monetary policy normalization narrative will lead to more upward pressure on bond yields.</p><p></li></ul><b>For the YCC policy, the attitude of the Bank of Japan will be to change rather than abandon it. We answer three main questions: Why is change needed? Why won't you abandon it? How to change?</b></p><p>After the pandemic, inflation returned and economic volatility increased significantly, while the YCC framework launched in 2016 was positioned at low inflation and low volatility. The Bank of Japan launched the YCC policy in September 2016, fixing the long-term Treasury Bond yield at around 0%, which has its own specific economic environment and policy demands: on the one hand, the original intention of the YCC policy is to help Japan get out of the long-standing deflation dilemma; On the other hand, the two main functions of YCC are: stimulating exports and introducing imported inflation through the depreciation of Japanese yen exchange rate; Create a favorable financing environment for expanded government spending.</p><p>At present, the anachronism of YCC is highlighted in three points: First, after the baptism of the epidemic,<b>The world has gradually emerged from the deflationary shadow of the past decade,</b>At present and in the next decade, we may usher in an era of high inflation and high volatility, and Japan is also not immune, which is contrary to the original setting of YCC policy; Second, in the context of high economic volatility,<b>The pro-cyclical YCC policy will further amplify the economic turmoil,</b>This is obviously unsuitable for Japan's aging, low-desire society; Third,<b>Lack of flexible adjustment mechanisms, vulnerable to speculative funds</b>。 The frequency of YCC range adjustment is very low, and the range has only been widened in 2018 and 2021 since its launch in 2016.</p><p>The main reason for the procyclicity of YCC policy is that the long-term Treasury Bond yield, which is the intermediary target of regulation, is procyclical. In order to prevent bond yields from falling below the lower limit when the economy is in downturn and inflation is sluggish, the Bank of Japan needs to buy bonds cautiously. During the recession caused by the epidemic in 2020, the balance sheet expansion of the Bank of Japan was much slower than that of European and American central banks (Figure 5); In the case of overheating economy and rising inflation, in order to prevent bond yields from rising above the upper limit, the Bank of Japan has to increase its bond purchases, which may add fuel to inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ff740a636ff810d6a3b8ab15a424690\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The most attractive point for speculative funds is that YCC policy is inflexible and its adjustment often lags behind. The basic structure of YCC policy is a stable hub (as the policy target, it is now 0%) and a fluctuation range that can be adjusted wide and narrow (but the adjustment frequency is on the low side).<b>This is quite similar to the pricing of RMB exchange rate before August 2015.</b>As a result, under the pressure of economic downturn and speculative funds, the pricing of RMB exchange rate has abandoned the anchor center, but it still retains the limit of fluctuation range (Figure 6, the current daily fluctuation of RMB against the US dollar still has an upper and lower limit of 2%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cd11e9a93e0b7772ec60eb274c499f2\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, we believe that the Bank of Japan will not give up YCC, and the Japanese government will not give up Abenomics. First, in the short term,<b>There are lessons learned from RBA abandoning YCC and bond yields runaway</b>(Figure 7), Japanese bond yields and yen upside caused by Japan's abandonment of YCC will make the Japanese economy weaker. Second, from the perspective of medium and long-term policies,<b>\"Abenomics\" is the right way out for Japanese economy</b>And the YCC policy is an important part of it. In Japan, where the population is aging and the youth are lying flat, the borrowing demand of households and enterprises is still weak. Maintaining export competitiveness through low exchange rate and active fiscal expenditure play a major role in stimulating aggregate demand (Figures 8 and 9), and the important pillars behind it are looser monetary policy and lower financing costs compared with other economies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1fbc2262fa3278c30046afd92d63e27\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Third, in terms of national and policy positioning, at least in finance, Japan has chosen to deeply bind the United States, and has long given up its ambition of internationalizing the yen, which means that unlike the Federal Reserve,<b>Guaranteeing low-cost domestic fiscal financing and supporting the economy rank first in Japan's monetary policy system, even if the Bank of Japan holds more than 50% of Japanese bonds in the market, and it will not hesitate to squeeze out foreign investors</b>On the contrary, whether the United States needs to maintain the global reserve status of the US dollar or China needs to improve the internationalization of RMB, it needs to ensure that the bond yield is at a reasonable level, and the liquidity and opening of the bond market to the outside world.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82f3209f9effe35bc9d550839efe4be1\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>How to change? In the second half of the year, the Bank of Japan will raise the interest rate of the YCC ceiling to more than 0.5% (now 0.25%), and it is likely to take a one-step approach that exceeds market expectations. Since the Bank of Japan mainly anchors 10-year Japanese bonds, which causes the yield curve of Japanese bonds to convex downward at the 10-year maturity (Figure 12), we estimate the reasonable position of the yield of 10-year Japanese bonds by the steepness of the curve under normal circumstances. Taking the 7-year maturity as an example (calculated based on the spread of 10-year and 7-year maturities at the recent highs of 0.27% and 0.19%), without changing the benchmark policy rate, the ceiling level of 10-year Japanese bonds is at least above 0.46% (Figure 13). Considering the market sentiment and the habit of the Bank of Japan to adjust the range (the magnitude is usually an integer multiple of 5bp),<b>The YCC range is likely to widen to ±0.5% in the second half of the year, essentially equivalent to at least 25bp in rate hike.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6e8684aa6a0873c78c54ffaa1be3e02\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Looking forward, in the era of high inflation and high volatility, YCC may evolve into an interest rate ceiling mechanism in stages</b>The policy signal of the ceiling interest rate adjustment is clearer than that of the central interest rate. On the premise of controlling the financing cost of Japanese bonds, the Bank of Japan can conduct counter-cyclical operations by adjusting the ceiling interest rate and bond purchases more frequently.</p><p>We believe that the reason why the Bank of Japan will make a one-time, substantial and exceeding market expectations is mainly that historical experience shows that adjusting rigid pricing mechanisms (such as fixed exchange rate mechanisms) is not appropriate to fully guide market expectations and progress step by step, which will lead to more speculative fund bets and arbitrage, resulting in greater market turmoil.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e637abc9b7fb9feb7d02473e0f0ccc3b\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If the Bank of Japan does this, will Japanese bonds collapse? No, in fact, the Bank of Japan is not passive in its operation. On the one hand,<b>The Bank of Japan is the largest holder in Japan's Treasury Bond spot market</b>The proportion of overseas institutions is only about 10% (Figure 14); On the other hand, speculative funds short Japanese bonds mainly through futures (better liquidity). In the case of insufficient liquidity in the spot market (inconvenient futures delivery),<b>Short-selling futures are mainly short-term and phased</b>(Mainly before the Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting, Figure 15). The pressure of the Bank of Japan mainly comes from the political and social public opinion level.</p><p>However, the Bank of Japan's initiative to widen the YCC range will lead to another pressure on the global bond market in the short term. As the last stronghold of the \"doves\" of monetary policy in advanced economies, the Bank of Japan's turn will have milestone symbolic significance. In addition, as the economy with the largest foreign investment position in the world, the changes in interest rates and exchange rates caused by the changes in YCC are likely to make Japan adjust (and probably reduce) its exposure to foreign fixed income investments, further aggravating market turmoil.</p><p>Yen: Depreciation pressure has always existed before the Bank of Japan acted, especially before and after the interest rate meeting. On the one hand, before the Bank of Japan's action, the continuous rate hike of the Federal Reserve will objectively widen the interest rate difference between Japan and the United States, resulting in the weakening of the yen; On the other hand, before the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve turns, funds will continue to bet on its adjustment policy before the interest rate meeting of the Bank of Japan. While institutions short Japanese bond futures, shorting Japanese yen is a good hedging position (the Bank of Japan adjusts its policy, and Japanese bond futures make money; The Bank of Japan stands still, and the short yen makes money).</p><p>We see 140 as a hurdle for the yen. Japan's import prices increased by more than 40 percent in May year-on-year, a new high since 1980.<b>The depreciation of the yen contributed about 40% of the growth rate.</b>Due to rising prices, the disapproval rate of Kishida's cabinet has risen to a high of 27% in July since taking office. We believe that after the yen falls below 140 yuan, social and political pressure will force the Bank of Japan to reevaluate its current policy, and the Japanese Ministry of Finance will also intervene in foreign exchange in due course.</p><p>Regarding the spillover impact of Shinzo Abe's assassination and the \"gray rhino\" of Japan's monetary policy in the second half of the year, we think we are mainly concerned about two points:<b>First, the downward turning point of U.S. bond yields may come later than before, and second, the pressure of domestic bond yields to rise in the second half of the year may be greater.</b></p><p>The downward inflection point in U.S. bond yields will appear later, perhaps not until the fourth quarter or even later. A series of recent events have shown<b>The current determination of European and American central banks to tighten policy should not be underestimated</b>。<b>We believe that the trend characteristics of U.S. debt in 2022 may need to refer to the 1970s and 1980s,</b>Since the 21st century, the pattern that the downward inflection point of U.S. bond yields appeared before the recession is no longer applicable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d12b56f4d11a290edbf9929ab140588d\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Since the 21st century, the important reason why the yield peg of 10-year U.S. Treasury tends to appear before recession is<b>The Federal Reserve tends to take the lead in cutting interest rates forward when downward pressure on the economy is high</b>(Figure 16), but current monetary policy operations under high inflation may be more like the 1970s-1980s, with policy shifts often occurring after the start of a recession, which also leads to bond yield highs (or secondary highs) occurring during a recession (Figure 17).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ada6ca2043944da4ba1a40179b1f3d9\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition, the global \"aftershocks\" brought about by changes in Japan's monetary policy, the rapid recovery of China's economy in the third quarter, and the Biden administration's unusual emphasis on inflation ahead of the November midterm elections. These factors will lead to a downward inflection point in U.S. bond yields that may not occur until the fourth quarter.</p><p>For China, putting aside the grand narrative of geopolitics and anti-globalization, from the perspective of market logic, the upward pressure on bond yields will be greater in the second half of the year. We tend to think that the yield of 10-year bonds will stand at 2.90% in stages in the second half of the year, touching 3%:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f302c8709a5fb3156a0feae16b77a4bb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>From the perspective of macro environment and market logic, overseas markets are suffering from inflation and recession, but at home, at least in the third quarter, the rapid economic recovery, the recovery of the service industry and the accelerated rise of pork may lead to CPI staging 3 or even exceeding market expectations, superimposing overseas inflation narratives to fanfare the flames, which is obviously not good news for the bond market; While<b>The experience of surging pork prices and falling bond interest rates in 2019 is not of reference significance in 2022</b>— — At that time, the macro background was that global inflation was sluggish, and the central banks turned to easing one after another under the weak fundamentals, which was quite different from this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c6c0293c9458a529f4248e446009355\" tg-width=\"802\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From the external environment, before Japan's monetary policy adjustment, the \"Asian currency war\" led by the depreciation of the yen has not yet ended</b>Even with the aura of tariff reduction and exemption of the United States on China, there is still pressure of depreciation of the RMB, and the \"firmness\" of the yield of the US dollar and US bonds is superimposed. In addition to the logic of returning to normal, monetary policy has added a layer of internal and external game color.<b>How to balance exchange rate depreciation and stable inflation expectations will bring additional uncertainty to the bond market.</b></p><p>Once the logic of \"recovery + inflation + monetary policy returns to normalization + limiting imported inflation\" is formed,<b>De-leverage of bond market will accelerate the adjustment of bond market</b>。</p><p>For the domestic equity market,<b>Under the inflation narrative, the downward inflection point of long-term U.S. bond yields is postponed, the domestic bond market is facing adjustment, and the risk of \"gray rhino\" from the Bank of Japan is superimposed. We will be more cautious about the performance of growth stocks in the third quarter than the market</b>Especially some sectors with rapid valuation recovery and hot transactions in the second quarter need to control risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caf9e145bba244c2267f601c20b4f133\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Risk warning:</p><p>Under the tightening of overseas monetary policies, external demand declined, and the spread of the domestic epidemic exceeded market expectations; In the third quarter, Europe and the United States accelerated into a deep recession, European and American central banks were forced to turn ahead of schedule, long-term bond yields fell ahead of schedule, and Japan's YCC policy pressure decreased; In the second half of the year, OPEC greatly increased production beyond expectations, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict reached a consensus. The substantial improvement in crude oil supply led to the fall of oil prices and the easing of global inflationary pressure.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUzMzEyODIyMA==&mid=2247499790&idx=1&sn=0616e2d5b88409b0750bc7c75927f617&chksm=faaa357dcdddbc6b9d83fe293f78f6464bfbb114a5d4ec2245a98352cc2e204f3388d970afe2&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0710p4fnASCgjEhnoxYWSG13&sharer_sharetime=1657442265849&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51%23rd\">川阅全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65f441cb44a16f93fb854d432eef3637","relate_stocks":{"EWJ":"日本ETF-iShares MSCI"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUzMzEyODIyMA==&mid=2247499790&idx=1&sn=0616e2d5b88409b0750bc7c75927f617&chksm=faaa357dcdddbc6b9d83fe293f78f6464bfbb114a5d4ec2245a98352cc2e204f3388d970afe2&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0710p4fnASCgjEhnoxYWSG13&sharer_sharetime=1657442265849&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51%23rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158704109","content_text":"从OPEC秘书长巴尔金多意外身亡，到日本前首相安倍晋三意外被袭。能将这些事件串联起来的市场叙事可能是通胀已经从经济问题演变成政治和社会问题（当然，安倍遇刺背后还有宗教的因素）：油价是2022年通胀高企的重要导火索，但是OPEC迟迟未能有效提高产量缓解不断趋紧的供需格局（图1）；而日本央行在通胀上涨的情况下依旧无限制坚持YCC（收益率曲线控制政策）和政策宽松，现任央行行长黑田东彦是安倍经济学（通过量化宽松和扩大财政支出刺激经济）的拥虿（图2）。本篇报告我们想要针对后一方面进行分析：安倍倒下后日本央行将如何应对通胀的新挑战？对市场有何影响？我们认为日本不会抛弃安倍经济学和YCC政策，不过在海外通胀比衰退更加令人难以忍受的背景下，下半年至少需要注意三点风险：日本央行可能会选择一次性、超预期调整YCC政策的波动区间，而这无疑会阶段性加剧全球债市的压力；美债收益率的向下拐点可能会拖后至第四季度甚至更晚才会出现；对于国内来说，通胀和货币政策正常化叙事的强化将导致债券收益率上涨压力更大。对于YCC政策，日本央行的态度将是改变而非抛弃。我们主要回答三个问题：为什么需要改变？为什么不会抛弃？如何改变？疫情后通胀回归、经济波动明显加大，而2016年推出的YCC框架则定位于低通胀和低波动。日本央行在2016年9月推出YCC政策，将长端国债收益率固定在0%附近，有其特定的经济环境和政策诉求：一方面，YCC政策的初衷是为了帮助日本走出长期存在的通缩困境；另一方面YCC的两个主要功能是：通过日元汇率贬值拉动出口、引入输入性通胀；为扩大的政府支出创造良好的融资环境。当前看，YCC的不合时宜性凸显在三点上：第一，经过疫情的洗礼，全球已经逐步走出了过去10年的通缩阴影，当前以及未来十年我们可能迎来高通胀、高波动的年代，日本同样不能幸免，这与YCC政策最初的设置是相悖的；第二，在经济高波动的情况下，顺周期的YCC政策会进一步放大经济的动荡，这明显不适合日本老龄化、低欲望的社会；第三，缺乏灵活的调节机制，容易受到投机资金的攻击。YCC区间调整的频率很低，2016年推出以来仅2018年和2021年拓宽过区间。YCC政策的顺周期主要原因是作为调控中介目标的长端国债收益率是顺周期的。经济下行、通胀不振时为了不让债券收益率跌破下限，日本央行反而需要谨慎地进行债券购买，2020年疫情导致的衰退期间日本央行资产负债表扩张的速度远远慢于欧美央行（图5）；而在经济过热、通胀上涨的情况下，为了避免债券收益率升破上限，日本央行又不得不加大债券的购买量，可能导致通胀火上浇油。而最吸引投机资金的一点是，YCC政策缺乏弹性、调整往往滞后。YCC政策的基本构造是一个稳定的中枢（作为政策目标，现在为0%）和一个可以调整宽窄的波动区间（但调整频率偏低）。这一点和2015年8月之前的人民币汇率定价颇为相似，而结果是在经济下行和投机资金的压力下，人民币汇率的定价放弃了锚定中枢，但是依旧保留波动区间的限制（图6，当前人民币兑美元的日度波动依旧存在2%的上下限限制）。不过我们认为，日本央行不会放弃YCC，同样日本政府不会放弃安倍经济学。第一，从短期看，有澳大利亚央行放弃YCC、债券收益率失控的前车之鉴（图7），日本放弃YCC导致的日债收益率和日元上行会让日本经济更加疲软。第二，从中长期政策来看，“安倍经济学”是日本经济的正确出路，而YCC政策是其中重要的一环。在人口老龄化、青年躺平化的日本，家庭和企业的借贷需求依旧不强，通过低汇率保持出口竞争力、积极的财政支出发挥拉动总需求的主要作用（图8和9），而背后重要的支柱就是相较其他经济体更加宽松的货币政策、更加低廉的融资成本。第三，从国家和政策定位上，至少在金融上日本选择了深度绑定美国，早已放弃了日元国际化的野心，这意味着和美联储不同，保证国内财政低成本融资、托底经济在日本货币政策体系中的居于首位，即使日本央行持有日债规模占全市场的比例已经超过了50%、挤出外国投资者也在所不惜，与之相对，无论是美国需要保持美元的全球储备地位，还是中国需要提高人民币的国际化程度，都需要保证债券收益率处于合理水平，保证债市流动性和对外开放程度。怎么变？下半年日本央行会上调YCC上限的利率至0.5%以上（现在为0.25%），而且很可能会采取一步到位、超市场预期的方式。由于日本央行主要锚定10年期日债，这导致日债收益率曲线在10年期限处下凸（图12），我们通过正常情况下曲线的陡峭程度来估算10年日债收益率的合理位置，以7年期为例（按近期高点0.27%和0.19%的10年与7年期限利差计算），在不改变基准政策利率的情况下，10年期日债上限水平至少在0.46%上方（图13），考虑到市场情绪以及日本央行调整区间的习惯（幅度通常为5bp的整数倍），下半年YCC区间很可能拓宽至±0.5%，本质上相当于加息至少25bp。往后看，在高通胀、高波动时代YCC可能阶段性演变成一种利率上限机制，上限利率调整比中枢利率的政策信号更明确，日本央行可以在控制日债融资成本的前提下，通过更频繁地调整上限利率和债券购买来进行逆周期操作。我们认为日本央行会一次性、大幅度、超市场预期调整的原因主要在于，历史经验表明调整僵化的定价机制（例如固定汇率机制）不宜充分引导市场预期、循序渐进，这反而会导致更多的投机资金押注、套利，造成更大的市场动荡。日本央行这么做，日债会崩盘？不会，其实日本央行在操作上并不被动。一方面，日本央行是日本国债现货市场上最大的持有方，海外机构的占比仅在10%左右（图14）；另一方面，投机资金做空日债主要是通过期货（流动性更好），在现货市场流动性不足（期货交割不方便）的情况下，做空期货主要是短期和阶段性的（主要在日本央行议息会议前，图15）。日本央行的压力主要来自于政治和社会民意层面。不过日本央行主动拓宽YCC区间，会导致短期内全球债券市场再次承压。日本央行作为发达经济体货币政策“鸽派”最后的大本营，它的转向将具有里程碑式的象征意义。除此之外，作为全球对外投资头寸最大的经济体，YCC变动带来的利率和汇率变化，很可能会使得日本调整（很可能是减少）对外固定收益投资的敞口，进一步加剧市场动荡。日元：在日本央行行动前贬值压力一直存在，尤其是议息会议前后。一方面，在日本央行行动前，美联储持续加息客观上会拉大日美利差，导致日元走弱；另一方面，在美联储货币政策转向前，资金会持续在日本央行议息会议前押注其调整政策，机构在做空日债期货的同时，做空日元是很好的对冲仓位（日本央行调整政策，日债期货赚钱；日本央行按兵不动，日元空头赚钱）。我们认为140是日元的一道坎。日本5月的进口价格同比增速超过40%，创下1980年以来的新高，其中日元贬值贡献了约40%的增速。由于物价的上涨，岸田内阁的不支持率在7月已经升至履新以来的高位27%。我们认为日元跌破140元后，来自社会和政治层面的压力会迫使日本央行重新评估现行的政策，日本财政部也适时进行外汇干预。对于安倍晋三被刺和下半年日本货币政策“灰犀牛”的外溢影响，我们觉得主要关注两个点：一是美债收益率的向下拐点可能会较之前来得更晚，二是国内债券收益率下半年上涨的压力可能会更大。美债收益率向下的拐点会出现得更晚，可能要到第四季度甚至更晚。近期的一系列事件表明不应低估当前欧美央行政策紧缩的决心。我们认为2022年美债的走势特点可能需要参考20世纪70至80年代，21世纪以来美债收益率向下拐点在衰退前出现的模式已经不适用了。21世纪以来10年期美债收益率挂点往往在衰退前出现的重要原因是美联储往往会经济下行压力较大时率先开启前瞻式降息（图16），但是当前高通胀下的货币政策操作可能更像20世纪70至80年代，政策转向往往发生在衰退开始之后，这也导致债券收益率的高点（或者二次冲高点）会出现在衰退期间（图17）。除此之外，日本货币政策变动带来的全球“余震”，中国经济在第三季度的快速复苏，以及拜登政府在11月中期选举前对于通胀的异常重视。这些因素会导致美债收益率的向下拐点可能要到第四季度才会出现。对于中国来说，抛开地缘政治和逆全球化的宏大叙事，从市场逻辑看，下半年债券收益率上行的压力会更大，我们倾向于认为下半年10年期债券收益率会阶段性站上2.90%，触及3%：从宏观环境和市场逻辑上看，海外市场是通胀和衰退此消彼长，但国内，至少在第三季度，经济快速复苏，服务业恢复和猪肉加速上涨可能导致CPI阶段性上3、甚至超市场预期，叠加海外通胀叙事的煽风点火，这对于债市明显不是好消息；而2019年猪肉价格大涨、债券利率反而下行的经历在2022年不具备参考意义——彼时的宏观大背景是全球通胀低迷，基本面偏弱下央行纷纷转向宽松，这与今年存在较大差异。从外部环境看，日本货币政策调整前，日元贬值引领的“亚洲货币战”尚未结束，即使有美国对华减免关税的光环存在，人民币还是存在贬值压力，叠加美元和美债收益率的“坚挺”，货币政策在回归常态的逻辑外，又多了一层内外博弈的色彩，如何在汇率贬值和稳定通胀预期之间平衡会给债市带来额外的不确定性。一旦“复苏+通胀+货币政策回归正常化+限制输入性通胀”的逻辑形成，债市杠杆的去化会加速债市调整。对于国内权益市场来说，通胀叙事下长端美债收益率向下拐点延期，国内债市面临调整，叠加日本央行“灰犀牛”的风险，我们对第三季度成长股的表现较市场会更趋谨慎，尤其是部分第二季度估值恢复迅速、成交火热的板块，需要控制风险。风险提示：海外货币政策收紧下外需回落，国内疫情扩散超市场预期；欧美第三季度加速进入深度衰退，欧美央行被迫提前转向，长端债券收益率提前回落，日本YCC政策压力减小；OPEC下半年超预期大幅增产、俄乌冲突达成共识，原油供给大幅改善导致油价下跌，全球通胀压力缓和。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EWJ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071309967,"gmtCreate":1657466798359,"gmtModify":1676536010830,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071309967","repostId":"1158704109","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158704109","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657455012,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158704109?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-10 20:10","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Who is the next \"domino card\" after Abe falls?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158704109","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"安倍倒下后日本央行将如何应对通胀的新挑战？对市场有何影响？","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>From the accidental death of OPEC Secretary-General Barkindo to the accidental attack on former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The market narrative that connects these events may be<b>Inflation has evolved from an economic problem to a political and social problem</b>(Of course, there are religious factors behind Abe's assassination): Oil prices are an important trigger for high inflation in 2022, but OPEC has been delayed in effectively increasing output to alleviate the tightening supply and demand pattern (Figure 1); However, the Bank of Japan still adheres to YCC (yield curve control policy) and policy easing without restriction despite rising inflation. The current central bank governor Haruhiko Kuroda is a supporter of Abenomics (stimulating the economy through quantitative easing and expanding fiscal spending) (Figure 2).</p><p>In this report, we want to analyze the latter aspect:<b>How will the Bank of Japan respond to the new challenge of inflation after Abe's fall? What is the impact on the market?</b></p><p>We don't think Japan will abandon Abenomics and YCC policies, but in the context of overseas inflation being more unbearable than recession, there are at least three risks to be aware of in the second half of the year:</p><p><ul><li>The Bank of Japan may choose to adjust the fluctuation range of YCC policy at one time and beyond expectations, which will undoubtedly aggravate the pressure on the global bond market in stages;</p><p></li><li>The downward inflection point of U.S. Treasury yields may be delayed until the fourth quarter or even later;</p><p></li><li>Domestically, the strengthening of the inflation and monetary policy normalization narrative will lead to more upward pressure on bond yields.</p><p></li></ul><b>For the YCC policy, the attitude of the Bank of Japan will be to change rather than abandon it. We answer three main questions: Why is change needed? Why won't you abandon it? How to change?</b></p><p>After the pandemic, inflation returned and economic volatility increased significantly, while the YCC framework launched in 2016 was positioned at low inflation and low volatility. The Bank of Japan launched the YCC policy in September 2016, fixing the long-term Treasury Bond yield at around 0%, which has its own specific economic environment and policy demands: on the one hand, the original intention of the YCC policy is to help Japan get out of the long-standing deflation dilemma; On the other hand, the two main functions of YCC are: stimulating exports and introducing imported inflation through the depreciation of Japanese yen exchange rate; Create a favorable financing environment for expanded government spending.</p><p>At present, the anachronism of YCC is highlighted in three points: First, after the baptism of the epidemic,<b>The world has gradually emerged from the deflationary shadow of the past decade,</b>At present and in the next decade, we may usher in an era of high inflation and high volatility, and Japan is also not immune, which is contrary to the original setting of YCC policy; Second, in the context of high economic volatility,<b>The pro-cyclical YCC policy will further amplify the economic turmoil,</b>This is obviously unsuitable for Japan's aging, low-desire society; Third,<b>Lack of flexible adjustment mechanisms, vulnerable to speculative funds</b>。 The frequency of YCC range adjustment is very low, and the range has only been widened in 2018 and 2021 since its launch in 2016.</p><p>The main reason for the procyclicity of YCC policy is that the long-term Treasury Bond yield, which is the intermediary target of regulation, is procyclical. In order to prevent bond yields from falling below the lower limit when the economy is in downturn and inflation is sluggish, the Bank of Japan needs to buy bonds cautiously. During the recession caused by the epidemic in 2020, the balance sheet expansion of the Bank of Japan was much slower than that of European and American central banks (Figure 5); In the case of overheating economy and rising inflation, in order to prevent bond yields from rising above the upper limit, the Bank of Japan has to increase its bond purchases, which may add fuel to inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ff740a636ff810d6a3b8ab15a424690\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The most attractive point for speculative funds is that YCC policy is inflexible and its adjustment often lags behind. The basic structure of YCC policy is a stable hub (as the policy target, it is now 0%) and a fluctuation range that can be adjusted wide and narrow (but the adjustment frequency is on the low side).<b>This is quite similar to the pricing of RMB exchange rate before August 2015.</b>As a result, under the pressure of economic downturn and speculative funds, the pricing of RMB exchange rate has abandoned the anchor center, but it still retains the limit of fluctuation range (Figure 6, the current daily fluctuation of RMB against the US dollar still has an upper and lower limit of 2%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cd11e9a93e0b7772ec60eb274c499f2\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, we believe that the Bank of Japan will not give up YCC, and the Japanese government will not give up Abenomics. First, in the short term,<b>There are lessons learned from RBA abandoning YCC and bond yields runaway</b>(Figure 7), Japanese bond yields and yen upside caused by Japan's abandonment of YCC will make the Japanese economy weaker. Second, from the perspective of medium and long-term policies,<b>\"Abenomics\" is the right way out for Japanese economy</b>And the YCC policy is an important part of it. In Japan, where the population is aging and the youth are lying flat, the borrowing demand of households and enterprises is still weak. Maintaining export competitiveness through low exchange rate and active fiscal expenditure play a major role in stimulating aggregate demand (Figures 8 and 9), and the important pillars behind it are looser monetary policy and lower financing costs compared with other economies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1fbc2262fa3278c30046afd92d63e27\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Third, in terms of national and policy positioning, at least in finance, Japan has chosen to deeply bind the United States, and has long given up its ambition of internationalizing the yen, which means that unlike the Federal Reserve,<b>Guaranteeing low-cost domestic fiscal financing and supporting the economy rank first in Japan's monetary policy system, even if the Bank of Japan holds more than 50% of Japanese bonds in the market, and it will not hesitate to squeeze out foreign investors</b>On the contrary, whether the United States needs to maintain the global reserve status of the US dollar or China needs to improve the internationalization of RMB, it needs to ensure that the bond yield is at a reasonable level, and the liquidity and opening of the bond market to the outside world.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82f3209f9effe35bc9d550839efe4be1\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>How to change? In the second half of the year, the Bank of Japan will raise the interest rate of the YCC ceiling to more than 0.5% (now 0.25%), and it is likely to take a one-step approach that exceeds market expectations. Since the Bank of Japan mainly anchors 10-year Japanese bonds, which causes the yield curve of Japanese bonds to convex downward at the 10-year maturity (Figure 12), we estimate the reasonable position of the yield of 10-year Japanese bonds by the steepness of the curve under normal circumstances. Taking the 7-year maturity as an example (calculated based on the spread of 10-year and 7-year maturities at the recent highs of 0.27% and 0.19%), without changing the benchmark policy rate, the ceiling level of 10-year Japanese bonds is at least above 0.46% (Figure 13). Considering the market sentiment and the habit of the Bank of Japan to adjust the range (the magnitude is usually an integer multiple of 5bp),<b>The YCC range is likely to widen to ±0.5% in the second half of the year, essentially equivalent to at least 25bp in rate hike.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6e8684aa6a0873c78c54ffaa1be3e02\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Looking forward, in the era of high inflation and high volatility, YCC may evolve into an interest rate ceiling mechanism in stages</b>The policy signal of the ceiling interest rate adjustment is clearer than that of the central interest rate. On the premise of controlling the financing cost of Japanese bonds, the Bank of Japan can conduct counter-cyclical operations by adjusting the ceiling interest rate and bond purchases more frequently.</p><p>We believe that the reason why the Bank of Japan will make a one-time, substantial and exceeding market expectations is mainly that historical experience shows that adjusting rigid pricing mechanisms (such as fixed exchange rate mechanisms) is not appropriate to fully guide market expectations and progress step by step, which will lead to more speculative fund bets and arbitrage, resulting in greater market turmoil.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e637abc9b7fb9feb7d02473e0f0ccc3b\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If the Bank of Japan does this, will Japanese bonds collapse? No, in fact, the Bank of Japan is not passive in its operation. On the one hand,<b>The Bank of Japan is the largest holder in Japan's Treasury Bond spot market</b>The proportion of overseas institutions is only about 10% (Figure 14); On the other hand, speculative funds short Japanese bonds mainly through futures (better liquidity). In the case of insufficient liquidity in the spot market (inconvenient futures delivery),<b>Short-selling futures are mainly short-term and phased</b>(Mainly before the Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting, Figure 15). The pressure of the Bank of Japan mainly comes from the political and social public opinion level.</p><p>However, the Bank of Japan's initiative to widen the YCC range will lead to another pressure on the global bond market in the short term. As the last stronghold of the \"doves\" of monetary policy in advanced economies, the Bank of Japan's turn will have milestone symbolic significance. In addition, as the economy with the largest foreign investment position in the world, the changes in interest rates and exchange rates caused by the changes in YCC are likely to make Japan adjust (and probably reduce) its exposure to foreign fixed income investments, further aggravating market turmoil.</p><p>Yen: Depreciation pressure has always existed before the Bank of Japan acted, especially before and after the interest rate meeting. On the one hand, before the Bank of Japan's action, the continuous rate hike of the Federal Reserve will objectively widen the interest rate difference between Japan and the United States, resulting in the weakening of the yen; On the other hand, before the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve turns, funds will continue to bet on its adjustment policy before the interest rate meeting of the Bank of Japan. While institutions short Japanese bond futures, shorting Japanese yen is a good hedging position (the Bank of Japan adjusts its policy, and Japanese bond futures make money; The Bank of Japan stands still, and the short yen makes money).</p><p>We see 140 as a hurdle for the yen. Japan's import prices increased by more than 40 percent in May year-on-year, a new high since 1980.<b>The depreciation of the yen contributed about 40% of the growth rate.</b>Due to rising prices, the disapproval rate of Kishida's cabinet has risen to a high of 27% in July since taking office. We believe that after the yen falls below 140 yuan, social and political pressure will force the Bank of Japan to reevaluate its current policy, and the Japanese Ministry of Finance will also intervene in foreign exchange in due course.</p><p>Regarding the spillover impact of Shinzo Abe's assassination and the \"gray rhino\" of Japan's monetary policy in the second half of the year, we think we are mainly concerned about two points:<b>First, the downward turning point of U.S. bond yields may come later than before, and second, the pressure of domestic bond yields to rise in the second half of the year may be greater.</b></p><p>The downward inflection point in U.S. bond yields will appear later, perhaps not until the fourth quarter or even later. A series of recent events have shown<b>The current determination of European and American central banks to tighten policy should not be underestimated</b>。<b>We believe that the trend characteristics of U.S. debt in 2022 may need to refer to the 1970s and 1980s,</b>Since the 21st century, the pattern that the downward inflection point of U.S. bond yields appeared before the recession is no longer applicable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d12b56f4d11a290edbf9929ab140588d\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Since the 21st century, the important reason why the yield peg of 10-year U.S. Treasury tends to appear before recession is<b>The Federal Reserve tends to take the lead in cutting interest rates forward when downward pressure on the economy is high</b>(Figure 16), but current monetary policy operations under high inflation may be more like the 1970s-1980s, with policy shifts often occurring after the start of a recession, which also leads to bond yield highs (or secondary highs) occurring during a recession (Figure 17).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ada6ca2043944da4ba1a40179b1f3d9\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition, the global \"aftershocks\" brought about by changes in Japan's monetary policy, the rapid recovery of China's economy in the third quarter, and the Biden administration's unusual emphasis on inflation ahead of the November midterm elections. These factors will lead to a downward inflection point in U.S. bond yields that may not occur until the fourth quarter.</p><p>For China, putting aside the grand narrative of geopolitics and anti-globalization, from the perspective of market logic, the upward pressure on bond yields will be greater in the second half of the year. We tend to think that the yield of 10-year bonds will stand at 2.90% in stages in the second half of the year, touching 3%:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f302c8709a5fb3156a0feae16b77a4bb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>From the perspective of macro environment and market logic, overseas markets are suffering from inflation and recession, but at home, at least in the third quarter, the rapid economic recovery, the recovery of the service industry and the accelerated rise of pork may lead to CPI staging 3 or even exceeding market expectations, superimposing overseas inflation narratives to fanfare the flames, which is obviously not good news for the bond market; While<b>The experience of surging pork prices and falling bond interest rates in 2019 is not of reference significance in 2022</b>— — At that time, the macro background was that global inflation was sluggish, and the central banks turned to easing one after another under the weak fundamentals, which was quite different from this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c6c0293c9458a529f4248e446009355\" tg-width=\"802\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From the external environment, before Japan's monetary policy adjustment, the \"Asian currency war\" led by the depreciation of the yen has not yet ended</b>Even with the aura of tariff reduction and exemption of the United States on China, there is still pressure of depreciation of the RMB, and the \"firmness\" of the yield of the US dollar and US bonds is superimposed. In addition to the logic of returning to normal, monetary policy has added a layer of internal and external game color.<b>How to balance exchange rate depreciation and stable inflation expectations will bring additional uncertainty to the bond market.</b></p><p>Once the logic of \"recovery + inflation + monetary policy returns to normalization + limiting imported inflation\" is formed,<b>De-leverage of bond market will accelerate the adjustment of bond market</b>。</p><p>For the domestic equity market,<b>Under the inflation narrative, the downward inflection point of long-term U.S. bond yields is postponed, the domestic bond market is facing adjustment, and the risk of \"gray rhino\" from the Bank of Japan is superimposed. We will be more cautious about the performance of growth stocks in the third quarter than the market</b>Especially some sectors with rapid valuation recovery and hot transactions in the second quarter need to control risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caf9e145bba244c2267f601c20b4f133\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Risk warning:</p><p>Under the tightening of overseas monetary policies, external demand declined, and the spread of the domestic epidemic exceeded market expectations; In the third quarter, Europe and the United States accelerated into a deep recession, European and American central banks were forced to turn ahead of schedule, long-term bond yields fell ahead of schedule, and Japan's YCC policy pressure decreased; In the second half of the year, OPEC greatly increased production beyond expectations, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict reached a consensus. The substantial improvement in crude oil supply led to the fall of oil prices and the easing of global inflationary pressure.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Who is the next \"domino card\" after Abe falls?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWho is the next \"domino card\" after Abe falls?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">川阅全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-10 20:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>From the accidental death of OPEC Secretary-General Barkindo to the accidental attack on former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The market narrative that connects these events may be<b>Inflation has evolved from an economic problem to a political and social problem</b>(Of course, there are religious factors behind Abe's assassination): Oil prices are an important trigger for high inflation in 2022, but OPEC has been delayed in effectively increasing output to alleviate the tightening supply and demand pattern (Figure 1); However, the Bank of Japan still adheres to YCC (yield curve control policy) and policy easing without restriction despite rising inflation. The current central bank governor Haruhiko Kuroda is a supporter of Abenomics (stimulating the economy through quantitative easing and expanding fiscal spending) (Figure 2).</p><p>In this report, we want to analyze the latter aspect:<b>How will the Bank of Japan respond to the new challenge of inflation after Abe's fall? What is the impact on the market?</b></p><p>We don't think Japan will abandon Abenomics and YCC policies, but in the context of overseas inflation being more unbearable than recession, there are at least three risks to be aware of in the second half of the year:</p><p><ul><li>The Bank of Japan may choose to adjust the fluctuation range of YCC policy at one time and beyond expectations, which will undoubtedly aggravate the pressure on the global bond market in stages;</p><p></li><li>The downward inflection point of U.S. Treasury yields may be delayed until the fourth quarter or even later;</p><p></li><li>Domestically, the strengthening of the inflation and monetary policy normalization narrative will lead to more upward pressure on bond yields.</p><p></li></ul><b>For the YCC policy, the attitude of the Bank of Japan will be to change rather than abandon it. We answer three main questions: Why is change needed? Why won't you abandon it? How to change?</b></p><p>After the pandemic, inflation returned and economic volatility increased significantly, while the YCC framework launched in 2016 was positioned at low inflation and low volatility. The Bank of Japan launched the YCC policy in September 2016, fixing the long-term Treasury Bond yield at around 0%, which has its own specific economic environment and policy demands: on the one hand, the original intention of the YCC policy is to help Japan get out of the long-standing deflation dilemma; On the other hand, the two main functions of YCC are: stimulating exports and introducing imported inflation through the depreciation of Japanese yen exchange rate; Create a favorable financing environment for expanded government spending.</p><p>At present, the anachronism of YCC is highlighted in three points: First, after the baptism of the epidemic,<b>The world has gradually emerged from the deflationary shadow of the past decade,</b>At present and in the next decade, we may usher in an era of high inflation and high volatility, and Japan is also not immune, which is contrary to the original setting of YCC policy; Second, in the context of high economic volatility,<b>The pro-cyclical YCC policy will further amplify the economic turmoil,</b>This is obviously unsuitable for Japan's aging, low-desire society; Third,<b>Lack of flexible adjustment mechanisms, vulnerable to speculative funds</b>。 The frequency of YCC range adjustment is very low, and the range has only been widened in 2018 and 2021 since its launch in 2016.</p><p>The main reason for the procyclicity of YCC policy is that the long-term Treasury Bond yield, which is the intermediary target of regulation, is procyclical. In order to prevent bond yields from falling below the lower limit when the economy is in downturn and inflation is sluggish, the Bank of Japan needs to buy bonds cautiously. During the recession caused by the epidemic in 2020, the balance sheet expansion of the Bank of Japan was much slower than that of European and American central banks (Figure 5); In the case of overheating economy and rising inflation, in order to prevent bond yields from rising above the upper limit, the Bank of Japan has to increase its bond purchases, which may add fuel to inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ff740a636ff810d6a3b8ab15a424690\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The most attractive point for speculative funds is that YCC policy is inflexible and its adjustment often lags behind. The basic structure of YCC policy is a stable hub (as the policy target, it is now 0%) and a fluctuation range that can be adjusted wide and narrow (but the adjustment frequency is on the low side).<b>This is quite similar to the pricing of RMB exchange rate before August 2015.</b>As a result, under the pressure of economic downturn and speculative funds, the pricing of RMB exchange rate has abandoned the anchor center, but it still retains the limit of fluctuation range (Figure 6, the current daily fluctuation of RMB against the US dollar still has an upper and lower limit of 2%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cd11e9a93e0b7772ec60eb274c499f2\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, we believe that the Bank of Japan will not give up YCC, and the Japanese government will not give up Abenomics. First, in the short term,<b>There are lessons learned from RBA abandoning YCC and bond yields runaway</b>(Figure 7), Japanese bond yields and yen upside caused by Japan's abandonment of YCC will make the Japanese economy weaker. Second, from the perspective of medium and long-term policies,<b>\"Abenomics\" is the right way out for Japanese economy</b>And the YCC policy is an important part of it. In Japan, where the population is aging and the youth are lying flat, the borrowing demand of households and enterprises is still weak. Maintaining export competitiveness through low exchange rate and active fiscal expenditure play a major role in stimulating aggregate demand (Figures 8 and 9), and the important pillars behind it are looser monetary policy and lower financing costs compared with other economies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1fbc2262fa3278c30046afd92d63e27\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Third, in terms of national and policy positioning, at least in finance, Japan has chosen to deeply bind the United States, and has long given up its ambition of internationalizing the yen, which means that unlike the Federal Reserve,<b>Guaranteeing low-cost domestic fiscal financing and supporting the economy rank first in Japan's monetary policy system, even if the Bank of Japan holds more than 50% of Japanese bonds in the market, and it will not hesitate to squeeze out foreign investors</b>On the contrary, whether the United States needs to maintain the global reserve status of the US dollar or China needs to improve the internationalization of RMB, it needs to ensure that the bond yield is at a reasonable level, and the liquidity and opening of the bond market to the outside world.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82f3209f9effe35bc9d550839efe4be1\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>How to change? In the second half of the year, the Bank of Japan will raise the interest rate of the YCC ceiling to more than 0.5% (now 0.25%), and it is likely to take a one-step approach that exceeds market expectations. Since the Bank of Japan mainly anchors 10-year Japanese bonds, which causes the yield curve of Japanese bonds to convex downward at the 10-year maturity (Figure 12), we estimate the reasonable position of the yield of 10-year Japanese bonds by the steepness of the curve under normal circumstances. Taking the 7-year maturity as an example (calculated based on the spread of 10-year and 7-year maturities at the recent highs of 0.27% and 0.19%), without changing the benchmark policy rate, the ceiling level of 10-year Japanese bonds is at least above 0.46% (Figure 13). Considering the market sentiment and the habit of the Bank of Japan to adjust the range (the magnitude is usually an integer multiple of 5bp),<b>The YCC range is likely to widen to ±0.5% in the second half of the year, essentially equivalent to at least 25bp in rate hike.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6e8684aa6a0873c78c54ffaa1be3e02\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Looking forward, in the era of high inflation and high volatility, YCC may evolve into an interest rate ceiling mechanism in stages</b>The policy signal of the ceiling interest rate adjustment is clearer than that of the central interest rate. On the premise of controlling the financing cost of Japanese bonds, the Bank of Japan can conduct counter-cyclical operations by adjusting the ceiling interest rate and bond purchases more frequently.</p><p>We believe that the reason why the Bank of Japan will make a one-time, substantial and exceeding market expectations is mainly that historical experience shows that adjusting rigid pricing mechanisms (such as fixed exchange rate mechanisms) is not appropriate to fully guide market expectations and progress step by step, which will lead to more speculative fund bets and arbitrage, resulting in greater market turmoil.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e637abc9b7fb9feb7d02473e0f0ccc3b\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If the Bank of Japan does this, will Japanese bonds collapse? No, in fact, the Bank of Japan is not passive in its operation. On the one hand,<b>The Bank of Japan is the largest holder in Japan's Treasury Bond spot market</b>The proportion of overseas institutions is only about 10% (Figure 14); On the other hand, speculative funds short Japanese bonds mainly through futures (better liquidity). In the case of insufficient liquidity in the spot market (inconvenient futures delivery),<b>Short-selling futures are mainly short-term and phased</b>(Mainly before the Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting, Figure 15). The pressure of the Bank of Japan mainly comes from the political and social public opinion level.</p><p>However, the Bank of Japan's initiative to widen the YCC range will lead to another pressure on the global bond market in the short term. As the last stronghold of the \"doves\" of monetary policy in advanced economies, the Bank of Japan's turn will have milestone symbolic significance. In addition, as the economy with the largest foreign investment position in the world, the changes in interest rates and exchange rates caused by the changes in YCC are likely to make Japan adjust (and probably reduce) its exposure to foreign fixed income investments, further aggravating market turmoil.</p><p>Yen: Depreciation pressure has always existed before the Bank of Japan acted, especially before and after the interest rate meeting. On the one hand, before the Bank of Japan's action, the continuous rate hike of the Federal Reserve will objectively widen the interest rate difference between Japan and the United States, resulting in the weakening of the yen; On the other hand, before the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve turns, funds will continue to bet on its adjustment policy before the interest rate meeting of the Bank of Japan. While institutions short Japanese bond futures, shorting Japanese yen is a good hedging position (the Bank of Japan adjusts its policy, and Japanese bond futures make money; The Bank of Japan stands still, and the short yen makes money).</p><p>We see 140 as a hurdle for the yen. Japan's import prices increased by more than 40 percent in May year-on-year, a new high since 1980.<b>The depreciation of the yen contributed about 40% of the growth rate.</b>Due to rising prices, the disapproval rate of Kishida's cabinet has risen to a high of 27% in July since taking office. We believe that after the yen falls below 140 yuan, social and political pressure will force the Bank of Japan to reevaluate its current policy, and the Japanese Ministry of Finance will also intervene in foreign exchange in due course.</p><p>Regarding the spillover impact of Shinzo Abe's assassination and the \"gray rhino\" of Japan's monetary policy in the second half of the year, we think we are mainly concerned about two points:<b>First, the downward turning point of U.S. bond yields may come later than before, and second, the pressure of domestic bond yields to rise in the second half of the year may be greater.</b></p><p>The downward inflection point in U.S. bond yields will appear later, perhaps not until the fourth quarter or even later. A series of recent events have shown<b>The current determination of European and American central banks to tighten policy should not be underestimated</b>。<b>We believe that the trend characteristics of U.S. debt in 2022 may need to refer to the 1970s and 1980s,</b>Since the 21st century, the pattern that the downward inflection point of U.S. bond yields appeared before the recession is no longer applicable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d12b56f4d11a290edbf9929ab140588d\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Since the 21st century, the important reason why the yield peg of 10-year U.S. Treasury tends to appear before recession is<b>The Federal Reserve tends to take the lead in cutting interest rates forward when downward pressure on the economy is high</b>(Figure 16), but current monetary policy operations under high inflation may be more like the 1970s-1980s, with policy shifts often occurring after the start of a recession, which also leads to bond yield highs (or secondary highs) occurring during a recession (Figure 17).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ada6ca2043944da4ba1a40179b1f3d9\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition, the global \"aftershocks\" brought about by changes in Japan's monetary policy, the rapid recovery of China's economy in the third quarter, and the Biden administration's unusual emphasis on inflation ahead of the November midterm elections. These factors will lead to a downward inflection point in U.S. bond yields that may not occur until the fourth quarter.</p><p>For China, putting aside the grand narrative of geopolitics and anti-globalization, from the perspective of market logic, the upward pressure on bond yields will be greater in the second half of the year. We tend to think that the yield of 10-year bonds will stand at 2.90% in stages in the second half of the year, touching 3%:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f302c8709a5fb3156a0feae16b77a4bb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>From the perspective of macro environment and market logic, overseas markets are suffering from inflation and recession, but at home, at least in the third quarter, the rapid economic recovery, the recovery of the service industry and the accelerated rise of pork may lead to CPI staging 3 or even exceeding market expectations, superimposing overseas inflation narratives to fanfare the flames, which is obviously not good news for the bond market; While<b>The experience of surging pork prices and falling bond interest rates in 2019 is not of reference significance in 2022</b>— — At that time, the macro background was that global inflation was sluggish, and the central banks turned to easing one after another under the weak fundamentals, which was quite different from this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c6c0293c9458a529f4248e446009355\" tg-width=\"802\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From the external environment, before Japan's monetary policy adjustment, the \"Asian currency war\" led by the depreciation of the yen has not yet ended</b>Even with the aura of tariff reduction and exemption of the United States on China, there is still pressure of depreciation of the RMB, and the \"firmness\" of the yield of the US dollar and US bonds is superimposed. In addition to the logic of returning to normal, monetary policy has added a layer of internal and external game color.<b>How to balance exchange rate depreciation and stable inflation expectations will bring additional uncertainty to the bond market.</b></p><p>Once the logic of \"recovery + inflation + monetary policy returns to normalization + limiting imported inflation\" is formed,<b>De-leverage of bond market will accelerate the adjustment of bond market</b>。</p><p>For the domestic equity market,<b>Under the inflation narrative, the downward inflection point of long-term U.S. bond yields is postponed, the domestic bond market is facing adjustment, and the risk of \"gray rhino\" from the Bank of Japan is superimposed. We will be more cautious about the performance of growth stocks in the third quarter than the market</b>Especially some sectors with rapid valuation recovery and hot transactions in the second quarter need to control risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caf9e145bba244c2267f601c20b4f133\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Risk warning:</p><p>Under the tightening of overseas monetary policies, external demand declined, and the spread of the domestic epidemic exceeded market expectations; In the third quarter, Europe and the United States accelerated into a deep recession, European and American central banks were forced to turn ahead of schedule, long-term bond yields fell ahead of schedule, and Japan's YCC policy pressure decreased; In the second half of the year, OPEC greatly increased production beyond expectations, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict reached a consensus. The substantial improvement in crude oil supply led to the fall of oil prices and the easing of global inflationary pressure.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUzMzEyODIyMA==&mid=2247499790&idx=1&sn=0616e2d5b88409b0750bc7c75927f617&chksm=faaa357dcdddbc6b9d83fe293f78f6464bfbb114a5d4ec2245a98352cc2e204f3388d970afe2&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0710p4fnASCgjEhnoxYWSG13&sharer_sharetime=1657442265849&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51%23rd\">川阅全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65f441cb44a16f93fb854d432eef3637","relate_stocks":{"EWJ":"日本ETF-iShares MSCI"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUzMzEyODIyMA==&mid=2247499790&idx=1&sn=0616e2d5b88409b0750bc7c75927f617&chksm=faaa357dcdddbc6b9d83fe293f78f6464bfbb114a5d4ec2245a98352cc2e204f3388d970afe2&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0710p4fnASCgjEhnoxYWSG13&sharer_sharetime=1657442265849&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51%23rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158704109","content_text":"从OPEC秘书长巴尔金多意外身亡，到日本前首相安倍晋三意外被袭。能将这些事件串联起来的市场叙事可能是通胀已经从经济问题演变成政治和社会问题（当然，安倍遇刺背后还有宗教的因素）：油价是2022年通胀高企的重要导火索，但是OPEC迟迟未能有效提高产量缓解不断趋紧的供需格局（图1）；而日本央行在通胀上涨的情况下依旧无限制坚持YCC（收益率曲线控制政策）和政策宽松，现任央行行长黑田东彦是安倍经济学（通过量化宽松和扩大财政支出刺激经济）的拥虿（图2）。本篇报告我们想要针对后一方面进行分析：安倍倒下后日本央行将如何应对通胀的新挑战？对市场有何影响？我们认为日本不会抛弃安倍经济学和YCC政策，不过在海外通胀比衰退更加令人难以忍受的背景下，下半年至少需要注意三点风险：日本央行可能会选择一次性、超预期调整YCC政策的波动区间，而这无疑会阶段性加剧全球债市的压力；美债收益率的向下拐点可能会拖后至第四季度甚至更晚才会出现；对于国内来说，通胀和货币政策正常化叙事的强化将导致债券收益率上涨压力更大。对于YCC政策，日本央行的态度将是改变而非抛弃。我们主要回答三个问题：为什么需要改变？为什么不会抛弃？如何改变？疫情后通胀回归、经济波动明显加大，而2016年推出的YCC框架则定位于低通胀和低波动。日本央行在2016年9月推出YCC政策，将长端国债收益率固定在0%附近，有其特定的经济环境和政策诉求：一方面，YCC政策的初衷是为了帮助日本走出长期存在的通缩困境；另一方面YCC的两个主要功能是：通过日元汇率贬值拉动出口、引入输入性通胀；为扩大的政府支出创造良好的融资环境。当前看，YCC的不合时宜性凸显在三点上：第一，经过疫情的洗礼，全球已经逐步走出了过去10年的通缩阴影，当前以及未来十年我们可能迎来高通胀、高波动的年代，日本同样不能幸免，这与YCC政策最初的设置是相悖的；第二，在经济高波动的情况下，顺周期的YCC政策会进一步放大经济的动荡，这明显不适合日本老龄化、低欲望的社会；第三，缺乏灵活的调节机制，容易受到投机资金的攻击。YCC区间调整的频率很低，2016年推出以来仅2018年和2021年拓宽过区间。YCC政策的顺周期主要原因是作为调控中介目标的长端国债收益率是顺周期的。经济下行、通胀不振时为了不让债券收益率跌破下限，日本央行反而需要谨慎地进行债券购买，2020年疫情导致的衰退期间日本央行资产负债表扩张的速度远远慢于欧美央行（图5）；而在经济过热、通胀上涨的情况下，为了避免债券收益率升破上限，日本央行又不得不加大债券的购买量，可能导致通胀火上浇油。而最吸引投机资金的一点是，YCC政策缺乏弹性、调整往往滞后。YCC政策的基本构造是一个稳定的中枢（作为政策目标，现在为0%）和一个可以调整宽窄的波动区间（但调整频率偏低）。这一点和2015年8月之前的人民币汇率定价颇为相似，而结果是在经济下行和投机资金的压力下，人民币汇率的定价放弃了锚定中枢，但是依旧保留波动区间的限制（图6，当前人民币兑美元的日度波动依旧存在2%的上下限限制）。不过我们认为，日本央行不会放弃YCC，同样日本政府不会放弃安倍经济学。第一，从短期看，有澳大利亚央行放弃YCC、债券收益率失控的前车之鉴（图7），日本放弃YCC导致的日债收益率和日元上行会让日本经济更加疲软。第二，从中长期政策来看，“安倍经济学”是日本经济的正确出路，而YCC政策是其中重要的一环。在人口老龄化、青年躺平化的日本，家庭和企业的借贷需求依旧不强，通过低汇率保持出口竞争力、积极的财政支出发挥拉动总需求的主要作用（图8和9），而背后重要的支柱就是相较其他经济体更加宽松的货币政策、更加低廉的融资成本。第三，从国家和政策定位上，至少在金融上日本选择了深度绑定美国，早已放弃了日元国际化的野心，这意味着和美联储不同，保证国内财政低成本融资、托底经济在日本货币政策体系中的居于首位，即使日本央行持有日债规模占全市场的比例已经超过了50%、挤出外国投资者也在所不惜，与之相对，无论是美国需要保持美元的全球储备地位，还是中国需要提高人民币的国际化程度，都需要保证债券收益率处于合理水平，保证债市流动性和对外开放程度。怎么变？下半年日本央行会上调YCC上限的利率至0.5%以上（现在为0.25%），而且很可能会采取一步到位、超市场预期的方式。由于日本央行主要锚定10年期日债，这导致日债收益率曲线在10年期限处下凸（图12），我们通过正常情况下曲线的陡峭程度来估算10年日债收益率的合理位置，以7年期为例（按近期高点0.27%和0.19%的10年与7年期限利差计算），在不改变基准政策利率的情况下，10年期日债上限水平至少在0.46%上方（图13），考虑到市场情绪以及日本央行调整区间的习惯（幅度通常为5bp的整数倍），下半年YCC区间很可能拓宽至±0.5%，本质上相当于加息至少25bp。往后看，在高通胀、高波动时代YCC可能阶段性演变成一种利率上限机制，上限利率调整比中枢利率的政策信号更明确，日本央行可以在控制日债融资成本的前提下，通过更频繁地调整上限利率和债券购买来进行逆周期操作。我们认为日本央行会一次性、大幅度、超市场预期调整的原因主要在于，历史经验表明调整僵化的定价机制（例如固定汇率机制）不宜充分引导市场预期、循序渐进，这反而会导致更多的投机资金押注、套利，造成更大的市场动荡。日本央行这么做，日债会崩盘？不会，其实日本央行在操作上并不被动。一方面，日本央行是日本国债现货市场上最大的持有方，海外机构的占比仅在10%左右（图14）；另一方面，投机资金做空日债主要是通过期货（流动性更好），在现货市场流动性不足（期货交割不方便）的情况下，做空期货主要是短期和阶段性的（主要在日本央行议息会议前，图15）。日本央行的压力主要来自于政治和社会民意层面。不过日本央行主动拓宽YCC区间，会导致短期内全球债券市场再次承压。日本央行作为发达经济体货币政策“鸽派”最后的大本营，它的转向将具有里程碑式的象征意义。除此之外，作为全球对外投资头寸最大的经济体，YCC变动带来的利率和汇率变化，很可能会使得日本调整（很可能是减少）对外固定收益投资的敞口，进一步加剧市场动荡。日元：在日本央行行动前贬值压力一直存在，尤其是议息会议前后。一方面，在日本央行行动前，美联储持续加息客观上会拉大日美利差，导致日元走弱；另一方面，在美联储货币政策转向前，资金会持续在日本央行议息会议前押注其调整政策，机构在做空日债期货的同时，做空日元是很好的对冲仓位（日本央行调整政策，日债期货赚钱；日本央行按兵不动，日元空头赚钱）。我们认为140是日元的一道坎。日本5月的进口价格同比增速超过40%，创下1980年以来的新高，其中日元贬值贡献了约40%的增速。由于物价的上涨，岸田内阁的不支持率在7月已经升至履新以来的高位27%。我们认为日元跌破140元后，来自社会和政治层面的压力会迫使日本央行重新评估现行的政策，日本财政部也适时进行外汇干预。对于安倍晋三被刺和下半年日本货币政策“灰犀牛”的外溢影响，我们觉得主要关注两个点：一是美债收益率的向下拐点可能会较之前来得更晚，二是国内债券收益率下半年上涨的压力可能会更大。美债收益率向下的拐点会出现得更晚，可能要到第四季度甚至更晚。近期的一系列事件表明不应低估当前欧美央行政策紧缩的决心。我们认为2022年美债的走势特点可能需要参考20世纪70至80年代，21世纪以来美债收益率向下拐点在衰退前出现的模式已经不适用了。21世纪以来10年期美债收益率挂点往往在衰退前出现的重要原因是美联储往往会经济下行压力较大时率先开启前瞻式降息（图16），但是当前高通胀下的货币政策操作可能更像20世纪70至80年代，政策转向往往发生在衰退开始之后，这也导致债券收益率的高点（或者二次冲高点）会出现在衰退期间（图17）。除此之外，日本货币政策变动带来的全球“余震”，中国经济在第三季度的快速复苏，以及拜登政府在11月中期选举前对于通胀的异常重视。这些因素会导致美债收益率的向下拐点可能要到第四季度才会出现。对于中国来说，抛开地缘政治和逆全球化的宏大叙事，从市场逻辑看，下半年债券收益率上行的压力会更大，我们倾向于认为下半年10年期债券收益率会阶段性站上2.90%，触及3%：从宏观环境和市场逻辑上看，海外市场是通胀和衰退此消彼长，但国内，至少在第三季度，经济快速复苏，服务业恢复和猪肉加速上涨可能导致CPI阶段性上3、甚至超市场预期，叠加海外通胀叙事的煽风点火，这对于债市明显不是好消息；而2019年猪肉价格大涨、债券利率反而下行的经历在2022年不具备参考意义——彼时的宏观大背景是全球通胀低迷，基本面偏弱下央行纷纷转向宽松，这与今年存在较大差异。从外部环境看，日本货币政策调整前，日元贬值引领的“亚洲货币战”尚未结束，即使有美国对华减免关税的光环存在，人民币还是存在贬值压力，叠加美元和美债收益率的“坚挺”，货币政策在回归常态的逻辑外，又多了一层内外博弈的色彩，如何在汇率贬值和稳定通胀预期之间平衡会给债市带来额外的不确定性。一旦“复苏+通胀+货币政策回归正常化+限制输入性通胀”的逻辑形成，债市杠杆的去化会加速债市调整。对于国内权益市场来说，通胀叙事下长端美债收益率向下拐点延期，国内债市面临调整，叠加日本央行“灰犀牛”的风险，我们对第三季度成长股的表现较市场会更趋谨慎，尤其是部分第二季度估值恢复迅速、成交火热的板块，需要控制风险。风险提示：海外货币政策收紧下外需回落，国内疫情扩散超市场预期；欧美第三季度加速进入深度衰退，欧美央行被迫提前转向，长端债券收益率提前回落，日本YCC政策压力减小；OPEC下半年超预期大幅增产、俄乌冲突达成共识，原油供给大幅改善导致油价下跌，全球通胀压力缓和。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EWJ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3922,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9046629861,"gmtCreate":1656341737553,"gmtModify":1676535809694,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"y","listText":"y","text":"y","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9046629861","repostId":"1108443730","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108443730","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1656340656,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1108443730?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-27 22:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The crisis is still fermenting! Currency Circle Hedge Fund Giants Come to the Verge of Default","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108443730","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"随着偿还6.7亿美元的最后期限临近，处于危机中心的币圈对冲基金正面临违约风险。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Han Xuyang</p><p>Currency circle hedge funds at the center of the crisis are at risk of default as the deadline to repay $670 million approaches.</p><p>On Monday, crypto-focused hedge fund Three Arrows Capital must meet today's deadline to repay more than $670 million in loans to Digital asset broker Voyager Digital or face default. This could have knock-on effects across the digital asset market.</p><p>Three Arrows Capital is known as one of the most prominent cryptocurrency hedge funds, known for its highly leveraged bets. But in recent weeks, the hedge fund is facing potential liquidity and solvency issues as terraUSD and luna collapsed, loans were called on margin, and crypto markets tumbled. A \"Lehman crisis\" is fermenting in the currency circle.</p><p><b>Voyager Digital said last week that it had lent 15,250 Bitcoin and $350 million in stablecoin USDC to Three Arrows Capital. At Monday's prices, loans totaled more than $675 million. Voyager asked Three Arrows Capital to repay $25 million by June 24 and pay off the entire outstanding loan by June 27.</b></p><p>The price of cryptocurrencies continues to be under pressure. On Monday, Bitcoin hovered around $21,000, down about 53% year-to-date; Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has hinted at further rate hike to control severe inflation. Inflation has taken riskier assets out of steam to move higher.</p><p>Voyager said last week that neither payment had been repaid, adding that it could issue a notice of default if Three Arrows Capital did not repay the money.<b>Voyager said it is \"intending to seek compensation from Three Arrows Capital\" and is discussing \"available legal remedies\" with its advisers.</b></p><p>Three Arrows Capital, as one of the largest, cryptocurrency-focused hedge funds, has borrowed a lot of money from different companies and invested in many different digital asset projects.<b>This has raised fears of further contagion across the industry.</b></p><p>Speaking to the media, Vijay Ayyar, vice president of corporate development and international at cryptocurrency exchange Luno, said:</p><p>The problem is that their (Three Arrows Capital) asset values have also fallen dramatically with the market, so overall, that's not a good sign. What remains to be seen is whether there are still large, remaining players holding exposure to these products, which could lead to further \"contagion\". Some crypto companies are already facing a liquidity crisis due to the market downturn. This month, lender Celsius suspended withdrawals from customers, citing \"extreme market conditions\". Babel Finance, another cryptocurrency lender, said this month it was \"under unusual liquidity pressures\" and halted withdrawals.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The crisis is still fermenting! Currency Circle Hedge Fund Giants Come to the Verge of Default</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe crisis is still fermenting! Currency Circle Hedge Fund Giants Come to the Verge of Default\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-27 22:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Han Xuyang</p><p>Currency circle hedge funds at the center of the crisis are at risk of default as the deadline to repay $670 million approaches.</p><p>On Monday, crypto-focused hedge fund Three Arrows Capital must meet today's deadline to repay more than $670 million in loans to Digital asset broker Voyager Digital or face default. This could have knock-on effects across the digital asset market.</p><p>Three Arrows Capital is known as one of the most prominent cryptocurrency hedge funds, known for its highly leveraged bets. But in recent weeks, the hedge fund is facing potential liquidity and solvency issues as terraUSD and luna collapsed, loans were called on margin, and crypto markets tumbled. A \"Lehman crisis\" is fermenting in the currency circle.</p><p><b>Voyager Digital said last week that it had lent 15,250 Bitcoin and $350 million in stablecoin USDC to Three Arrows Capital. At Monday's prices, loans totaled more than $675 million. Voyager asked Three Arrows Capital to repay $25 million by June 24 and pay off the entire outstanding loan by June 27.</b></p><p>The price of cryptocurrencies continues to be under pressure. On Monday, Bitcoin hovered around $21,000, down about 53% year-to-date; Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has hinted at further rate hike to control severe inflation. Inflation has taken riskier assets out of steam to move higher.</p><p>Voyager said last week that neither payment had been repaid, adding that it could issue a notice of default if Three Arrows Capital did not repay the money.<b>Voyager said it is \"intending to seek compensation from Three Arrows Capital\" and is discussing \"available legal remedies\" with its advisers.</b></p><p>Three Arrows Capital, as one of the largest, cryptocurrency-focused hedge funds, has borrowed a lot of money from different companies and invested in many different digital asset projects.<b>This has raised fears of further contagion across the industry.</b></p><p>Speaking to the media, Vijay Ayyar, vice president of corporate development and international at cryptocurrency exchange Luno, said:</p><p>The problem is that their (Three Arrows Capital) asset values have also fallen dramatically with the market, so overall, that's not a good sign. What remains to be seen is whether there are still large, remaining players holding exposure to these products, which could lead to further \"contagion\". Some crypto companies are already facing a liquidity crisis due to the market downturn. This month, lender Celsius suspended withdrawals from customers, citing \"extreme market conditions\". Babel Finance, another cryptocurrency lender, said this month it was \"under unusual liquidity pressures\" and halted withdrawals.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3663150\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/683b0ebafc925391c935f27da1a18832","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3663150","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1108443730","content_text":"作者：韩旭阳随着偿还6.7亿美元的最后期限临近，处于危机中心的币圈对冲基金正面临违约风险。周一，专注于加密货币的对冲基金三箭资本（Three Arrows Capital）必须在今日这最后期限前偿还对数字资产经纪公司 Voyager Digital 超过6.7亿美元的贷款，否则将面临违约。这可能会对整个数字资产市场产生连锁反应。三箭资本被称为最著名的加密货币对冲基金之一，以其高杠杆押注而闻名。但最近几周，随着 terraUSD 和 luna 崩溃、贷款被追缴保证金以及加密货币市场暴跌，这家对冲基金正面临着潜在的流动性和偿付能力问题。一场“雷曼危机”正在币圈不断发酵。Voyager Digital上周表示，它已向三箭资本借出15250个比特币和3.5亿美元的稳定币USDC。按周一的价格计算，贷款总额超过6.75亿美元。Voyager 要求三箭资本在6月24日前偿还2500万美元，并在6月27日前还清全部未偿还贷款。加密货币的价格持续承压。周一，比特币在21000美元附近徘徊，今年以来下跌了约53%；与此同时，美联储已暗示将进一步加息，以控制严重的通胀。通胀已令风险较高的资产失去走高的动力。Voyager 上周表示，这两笔款项都没有偿还，并补充说，如果三箭资本不偿还这笔钱，它可能会发出违约通知。Voyager 表示，它正“打算从三箭资本寻求赔偿”，并正在与其顾问讨论“可用的法律补救措施”。三箭资本作为规模最大的、专注于加密货币的对冲基金之一，从不同的公司借入了大量资金，并投资于许多不同的数字资产项目。这引发了对整个行业进一步蔓延的担忧。加密货币交易所 Luno 的企业发展和国际副总裁Vijay Ayyar在接受媒体采访时表示：问题是他们（三箭资本）的资产价值也随着市场大幅下跌，所以总的来说，这不是一个好迹象。有待观察的是，是否还有大型、剩余的参与者持有对这些产品的敞口，这可能导致进一步的“传染”。由于市场低迷，一些加密公司已经面临流动性危机。本月，贷款公司 Celsius 以“极端的市场条件”为由，暂停了客户的提款。另一家加密货币贷款公司 Babel Finance 本月表示，它“面临不同寻常的流动性压力”，并停止了提款。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GBTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3491,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9043888904,"gmtCreate":1655905437808,"gmtModify":1676535729148,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"k","listText":"k","text":"k","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9043888904","repostId":"1123729187","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4224,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9043881707,"gmtCreate":1655905431809,"gmtModify":1676535729038,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ｏ","listText":"ｏ","text":"ｏ","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9043881707","repostId":"1123729187","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4237,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9057796109,"gmtCreate":1655563492601,"gmtModify":1676535662419,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9057796109","repostId":"1130766759","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9055047681,"gmtCreate":1655220937343,"gmtModify":1676535588053,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"q","listText":"q","text":"q","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9055047681","repostId":"1155981261","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155981261","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1655220074,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155981261?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-14 23:21","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"\"Di Wang\" was actively sung by brokers, and CITIC shouted \"trillion new starting point\"!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155981261","media":"上海证券报","summary":"比亚迪股价创出历史新高、公司市值突破1万亿元之际，多家券商调整了对比亚迪的盈利预测及目标价预测。券业龙头中信证券最新发布研报，按分部估值法给予比亚迪2023年合理价值1.4万亿元，对应A股目标价481","content":"<p><div>When BYD's share price hit a record high and the company's market value exceeded 1 trillion yuan, many brokers adjusted their profit forecasts and target price forecasts for BYD. CITIC Securities, the leader in the securities industry, recently released a research report, giving BYD a reasonable value of 1.4 trillion yuan in 2023 according to the segment valuation method, corresponding to the A-share target price of 481.1 yuan. Some investors seem to disagree with CITIC Securities' increase in BYD's target price this time, and even cited a number of \"reverse\" cases. The reporter found that, including BYD, CATL, Kweichow Moutai, etc., in recent years, behind the stock price fluctuations of many popular blue-chip stocks, investors will raise concerns about securities firms...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/PpcQOvt9285FKhOG8lTUuw\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"shzqb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Di Wang\" was actively sung by brokers, and CITIC shouted \"trillion new starting point\"!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Di Wang\" was actively sung by brokers, and CITIC shouted \"trillion new starting point\"!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">上海证券报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-14 23:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>When BYD's share price hit a record high and the company's market value exceeded 1 trillion yuan, many brokers adjusted their profit forecasts and target price forecasts for BYD. CITIC Securities, the leader in the securities industry, recently released a research report, giving BYD a reasonable value of 1.4 trillion yuan in 2023 according to the segment valuation method, corresponding to the A-share target price of 481.1 yuan. Some investors seem to disagree with CITIC Securities' increase in BYD's target price this time, and even cited a number of \"reverse\" cases. The reporter found that, including BYD, CATL, Kweichow Moutai, etc., in recent years, behind the stock price fluctuations of many popular blue-chip stocks, investors will raise concerns about securities firms...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/PpcQOvt9285FKhOG8lTUuw\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/PpcQOvt9285FKhOG8lTUuw\">上海证券报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e5e005a453a59287c71f4cbf428610","relate_stocks":{"01211":"比亚迪股份","002594":"比亚迪"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/PpcQOvt9285FKhOG8lTUuw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155981261","content_text":"比亚迪股价创出历史新高、公司市值突破1万亿元之际，多家券商调整了对比亚迪的盈利预测及目标价预测。券业龙头中信证券最新发布研报，按分部估值法给予比亚迪2023年合理价值1.4万亿元，对应A股目标价481.1元。对于中信证券此番上调比亚迪目标价，部分投资者似乎并不认同，甚至举出了多个“反向”案例。记者发现，包括比亚迪、宁德时代、贵州茅台等在内，近年来多只热门蓝筹股股价波动背后，都会掀起投资者关于券商目标价的热议。如何正确看待券商研报给出的目标价？专业投资人士也发表了各自的见解。一方面，券商目标价多与盈利预测挂钩，回顾历史，券商对未来一年乃至更长时间的盈利预测往往存在偏差，因此给出的目标价也不一定准确；另一方面，相较于目标价或者投资评级，券商研报中投资逻辑的参考价值往往更高。此外，部分文字、数据细节才是读报告时更加需要关注的内容。中信证券上调“迪王”目标价近日，中信证券发布比亚迪个股研报，标题为《万亿新起点，高端化、全球化、智能化打开成长空间》，报告主要从“三化”角度点评了比亚迪总市值首次突破万亿这一事件。高端化方面，中信证券称比亚迪爆款新车型腾势D9、海豹发布，集中发力高端市场，50万元以上豪华品牌可期。公司旗舰轿车“汉”5月销量再创新高，验证了公司电动产品竞争力；公司发布腾势品牌和高端电动MPV腾势D9，瞄准“自主+电动”高端MPV市场；5月20日，公司e3.0平台首款B级轿跑海豹发布，发布会结束当天订单量即超2万辆；公司50万元以上的豪华品牌有望在未来半年发布，亦有望成为爆款。全球化方面，比亚迪车型矩阵逐步完善，出海征程即将开启。自2021年5月宣布计划在年内向挪威交付1500台唐EV开始，汉、元PlusEV及秦Plus、宋PlusDM-i也逐渐在欧洲、南美、澳洲多个国家和地区登陆。目前公司电动车相比外资竞品已有显著优势，未来随着公司高端、豪华车型矩阵逐步完善，出海征程有望加速。智能化方面，比亚迪销量提升，产业链话语权强化，短期与行业头部供应商合作，中长期自研方案有望占主导地位。未来随着高端车型落地，公司亦具备了高阶智能驾驶的承载平台。叠加公司领先行业的销量规模带来巨量数据，公司智能驾驶功能有望非线性加速迭代，从“并跑”超越至“领跑”地位。中信证券认为，公司未来高端化完善车型矩阵、提升品牌定位，为全球化和智能化提供支撑，“三化”逐步落地打开公司新成长空间。考虑公司未来电池、半导体电动化供应链价值，采用分部估值法进行估值。截自中信证券研报“汽车业务方面，预计2023年销量约250万辆，其中30万元以上腾势+高端品牌销量有望达20万辆。预计2023年公司汽车业务收入约3800亿元，考虑特斯拉、蔚来、理想、小鹏PS估值倍数和公司‘三化’进程，给予公司2023年汽车业务2.5倍PS，对应9500亿元市值。”“电池业务方面，预计公司2023年市场份额为宁德时代的约1/3，考虑公司外供加速，相比于行业竞争对手公司CTB（电池底盘一体化）技术领先，技术红利有望兑现至盈利能力，该业务合理市值亦取宁德时代目前市值的1/3，约3500亿元。”“半导体+电子业务按市值乘以持股比例，判断市值约1000亿元。”“综上，考虑公司未来高端化、全球化、智能化逐步落地，公司合理市值空间有望达1.4万亿元，对应A/H股目标价481.1元/562.6港元，维持公司（A+H股）买入评级，继续重点推荐。”值得注意的是，中信证券在6月初刚刚发布过比亚迪个股研报，当时给予公司2022年合理价值10935亿元，对应A、H股目标价分别为375.6元和462.9港元。截至今日收盘，比亚迪A股报343.59元，已十分逼近中信证券给出的2022年目标价，距离2023年目标价还有40%的潜在上涨空间。比亚迪日线走势研报目标价参考价值几何？除了中信证券外，长江证券、天风证券、国信证券、东吴证券多家券商6月以来也发布了比亚迪个股研报，部分大幅上调了对公司的盈利预测，且多数维持“买入”评级。但记者翻阅各大投资社区，发现部分投资者对于券商密集上调“迪王”目标价或盈利预测的举动并不认同，甚至举出了不少案例，表示券商高位“唱多”可能会成为“反向指标”。随着近年来A股风格轮动加剧，多只热门蓝筹股股价波动背后都会掀起有关券商目标价是否准确的热议。如某券商去年年初调高贵州茅台目标价至3000元，今年年初又调低目标价至2246元；宁德时代更是获某券商喊出905.8元目标价，目前最新股价已较这一价格“腰斩”。研报目标价参考价值几何？专业投资人士发表了各自的见解。知名价值派基金经理、现任中泰资管基金业务部总经理兼投资总监的姜诚，曾作出了一段中肯的评述。“很多人看研报最关注的是结论（包括目标价、投资评级等），第二关注的是推荐逻辑，有时间才看细节。在我看来，这完全反了。”姜诚认为，研报投资评级是没有标准答案的，目标价则更是“心中花”。“投资逻辑的参考价值比投资评级和目标价要大，通常在报告的‘摘要’部分。通畅的逻辑是投资决策的必要条件，读摘要，有助于我们迅速抓住股票的关键点。”姜诚表示，“决定股票投资价值的‘事实’更是隐藏在报告的细节中，在繁复的图表中，在枯燥的叙事中，这些东西，恰恰是我在读报告时最关注的。”截自中泰资管姜诚雪球账号另有业内人士做过统计，以过去十年的历史数据来看，券商对于短期的盈利预测往往具有较高的准确率，如在三季报公布后预测当年度的盈利，落在一倍标准差以内的概率几乎接近100%。但是，随着时间的拉长，预测1年后的盈利增速，仅有大约一半的盈利预测能够落在一倍标准差以内；如果时间拉长到两年，这一命中率只会落在盈利增速异常稳健的消费和地产链行业。由于目标价的预测来源于盈利预测，盈利预测的偏差势必造成目标价的“失准”。但与多数基本面波动较大的周期股和“伪成长股”相比，那些被视为核心资产的公司的盈利预测相对具有确定性。虽然通过模型框架推演出的预测不会十分精确，但确实可以在投资中起到一定的参考作用。正如姜诚所言，“总之，券商研报是好东西。要让好东西发挥功效，就需要有好的打开方式。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01211":0.9,"002594":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9055047996,"gmtCreate":1655220930715,"gmtModify":1676535588038,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"i","listText":"i","text":"i","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9055047996","repostId":"1155981261","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155981261","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1655220074,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155981261?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-14 23:21","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"\"Di Wang\" was actively sung by brokers, and CITIC shouted \"trillion new starting point\"!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155981261","media":"上海证券报","summary":"比亚迪股价创出历史新高、公司市值突破1万亿元之际，多家券商调整了对比亚迪的盈利预测及目标价预测。券业龙头中信证券最新发布研报，按分部估值法给予比亚迪2023年合理价值1.4万亿元，对应A股目标价481","content":"<p><div>When BYD's share price hit a record high and the company's market value exceeded 1 trillion yuan, many brokers adjusted their profit forecasts and target price forecasts for BYD. CITIC Securities, the leader in the securities industry, recently released a research report, giving BYD a reasonable value of 1.4 trillion yuan in 2023 according to the segment valuation method, corresponding to the A-share target price of 481.1 yuan. Some investors seem to disagree with CITIC Securities' increase in BYD's target price this time, and even cited a number of \"reverse\" cases. The reporter found that, including BYD, CATL, Kweichow Moutai, etc., in recent years, behind the stock price fluctuations of many popular blue-chip stocks, investors will raise concerns about securities firms...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/PpcQOvt9285FKhOG8lTUuw\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"shzqb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Di Wang\" was actively sung by brokers, and CITIC shouted \"trillion new starting point\"!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Di Wang\" was actively sung by brokers, and CITIC shouted \"trillion new starting point\"!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">上海证券报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-14 23:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>When BYD's share price hit a record high and the company's market value exceeded 1 trillion yuan, many brokers adjusted their profit forecasts and target price forecasts for BYD. CITIC Securities, the leader in the securities industry, recently released a research report, giving BYD a reasonable value of 1.4 trillion yuan in 2023 according to the segment valuation method, corresponding to the A-share target price of 481.1 yuan. Some investors seem to disagree with CITIC Securities' increase in BYD's target price this time, and even cited a number of \"reverse\" cases. The reporter found that, including BYD, CATL, Kweichow Moutai, etc., in recent years, behind the stock price fluctuations of many popular blue-chip stocks, investors will raise concerns about securities firms...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/PpcQOvt9285FKhOG8lTUuw\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/PpcQOvt9285FKhOG8lTUuw\">上海证券报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e5e005a453a59287c71f4cbf428610","relate_stocks":{"01211":"比亚迪股份","002594":"比亚迪"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/PpcQOvt9285FKhOG8lTUuw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155981261","content_text":"比亚迪股价创出历史新高、公司市值突破1万亿元之际，多家券商调整了对比亚迪的盈利预测及目标价预测。券业龙头中信证券最新发布研报，按分部估值法给予比亚迪2023年合理价值1.4万亿元，对应A股目标价481.1元。对于中信证券此番上调比亚迪目标价，部分投资者似乎并不认同，甚至举出了多个“反向”案例。记者发现，包括比亚迪、宁德时代、贵州茅台等在内，近年来多只热门蓝筹股股价波动背后，都会掀起投资者关于券商目标价的热议。如何正确看待券商研报给出的目标价？专业投资人士也发表了各自的见解。一方面，券商目标价多与盈利预测挂钩，回顾历史，券商对未来一年乃至更长时间的盈利预测往往存在偏差，因此给出的目标价也不一定准确；另一方面，相较于目标价或者投资评级，券商研报中投资逻辑的参考价值往往更高。此外，部分文字、数据细节才是读报告时更加需要关注的内容。中信证券上调“迪王”目标价近日，中信证券发布比亚迪个股研报，标题为《万亿新起点，高端化、全球化、智能化打开成长空间》，报告主要从“三化”角度点评了比亚迪总市值首次突破万亿这一事件。高端化方面，中信证券称比亚迪爆款新车型腾势D9、海豹发布，集中发力高端市场，50万元以上豪华品牌可期。公司旗舰轿车“汉”5月销量再创新高，验证了公司电动产品竞争力；公司发布腾势品牌和高端电动MPV腾势D9，瞄准“自主+电动”高端MPV市场；5月20日，公司e3.0平台首款B级轿跑海豹发布，发布会结束当天订单量即超2万辆；公司50万元以上的豪华品牌有望在未来半年发布，亦有望成为爆款。全球化方面，比亚迪车型矩阵逐步完善，出海征程即将开启。自2021年5月宣布计划在年内向挪威交付1500台唐EV开始，汉、元PlusEV及秦Plus、宋PlusDM-i也逐渐在欧洲、南美、澳洲多个国家和地区登陆。目前公司电动车相比外资竞品已有显著优势，未来随着公司高端、豪华车型矩阵逐步完善，出海征程有望加速。智能化方面，比亚迪销量提升，产业链话语权强化，短期与行业头部供应商合作，中长期自研方案有望占主导地位。未来随着高端车型落地，公司亦具备了高阶智能驾驶的承载平台。叠加公司领先行业的销量规模带来巨量数据，公司智能驾驶功能有望非线性加速迭代，从“并跑”超越至“领跑”地位。中信证券认为，公司未来高端化完善车型矩阵、提升品牌定位，为全球化和智能化提供支撑，“三化”逐步落地打开公司新成长空间。考虑公司未来电池、半导体电动化供应链价值，采用分部估值法进行估值。截自中信证券研报“汽车业务方面，预计2023年销量约250万辆，其中30万元以上腾势+高端品牌销量有望达20万辆。预计2023年公司汽车业务收入约3800亿元，考虑特斯拉、蔚来、理想、小鹏PS估值倍数和公司‘三化’进程，给予公司2023年汽车业务2.5倍PS，对应9500亿元市值。”“电池业务方面，预计公司2023年市场份额为宁德时代的约1/3，考虑公司外供加速，相比于行业竞争对手公司CTB（电池底盘一体化）技术领先，技术红利有望兑现至盈利能力，该业务合理市值亦取宁德时代目前市值的1/3，约3500亿元。”“半导体+电子业务按市值乘以持股比例，判断市值约1000亿元。”“综上，考虑公司未来高端化、全球化、智能化逐步落地，公司合理市值空间有望达1.4万亿元，对应A/H股目标价481.1元/562.6港元，维持公司（A+H股）买入评级，继续重点推荐。”值得注意的是，中信证券在6月初刚刚发布过比亚迪个股研报，当时给予公司2022年合理价值10935亿元，对应A、H股目标价分别为375.6元和462.9港元。截至今日收盘，比亚迪A股报343.59元，已十分逼近中信证券给出的2022年目标价，距离2023年目标价还有40%的潜在上涨空间。比亚迪日线走势研报目标价参考价值几何？除了中信证券外，长江证券、天风证券、国信证券、东吴证券多家券商6月以来也发布了比亚迪个股研报，部分大幅上调了对公司的盈利预测，且多数维持“买入”评级。但记者翻阅各大投资社区，发现部分投资者对于券商密集上调“迪王”目标价或盈利预测的举动并不认同，甚至举出了不少案例，表示券商高位“唱多”可能会成为“反向指标”。随着近年来A股风格轮动加剧，多只热门蓝筹股股价波动背后都会掀起有关券商目标价是否准确的热议。如某券商去年年初调高贵州茅台目标价至3000元，今年年初又调低目标价至2246元；宁德时代更是获某券商喊出905.8元目标价，目前最新股价已较这一价格“腰斩”。研报目标价参考价值几何？专业投资人士发表了各自的见解。知名价值派基金经理、现任中泰资管基金业务部总经理兼投资总监的姜诚，曾作出了一段中肯的评述。“很多人看研报最关注的是结论（包括目标价、投资评级等），第二关注的是推荐逻辑，有时间才看细节。在我看来，这完全反了。”姜诚认为，研报投资评级是没有标准答案的，目标价则更是“心中花”。“投资逻辑的参考价值比投资评级和目标价要大，通常在报告的‘摘要’部分。通畅的逻辑是投资决策的必要条件，读摘要，有助于我们迅速抓住股票的关键点。”姜诚表示，“决定股票投资价值的‘事实’更是隐藏在报告的细节中，在繁复的图表中，在枯燥的叙事中，这些东西，恰恰是我在读报告时最关注的。”截自中泰资管姜诚雪球账号另有业内人士做过统计，以过去十年的历史数据来看，券商对于短期的盈利预测往往具有较高的准确率，如在三季报公布后预测当年度的盈利，落在一倍标准差以内的概率几乎接近100%。但是，随着时间的拉长，预测1年后的盈利增速，仅有大约一半的盈利预测能够落在一倍标准差以内；如果时间拉长到两年，这一命中率只会落在盈利增速异常稳健的消费和地产链行业。由于目标价的预测来源于盈利预测，盈利预测的偏差势必造成目标价的“失准”。但与多数基本面波动较大的周期股和“伪成长股”相比，那些被视为核心资产的公司的盈利预测相对具有确定性。虽然通过模型框架推演出的预测不会十分精确，但确实可以在投资中起到一定的参考作用。正如姜诚所言，“总之，券商研报是好东西。要让好东西发挥功效，就需要有好的打开方式。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01211":0.9,"002594":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9052133137,"gmtCreate":1655134964229,"gmtModify":1676535568144,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Q","listText":"Q","text":"Q","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9052133137","repostId":"1146887080","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1886,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9052133996,"gmtCreate":1655134957515,"gmtModify":1676535568140,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okay&nbsp;","listText":"Okay&nbsp;","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9052133996","repostId":"1146887080","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146887080","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1655171803,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146887080?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-14 09:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"FOMC is approaching, how does rate hike expect to perform?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146887080","media":"泓观卓见","summary":"FOMC将于美东时间6月15日（周三）召开，上周起美联储进入缄默期。然而，上周超预期的通胀数据出炉后，通胀预期上升，加息预期大幅升温，市场进入紧缩交易。对于当前通胀与市场预期的解读，我们认为：供应链方","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>FOMC will be held on June 15th (Wednesday), Eastern Time, and the Federal Reserve has entered a silent period since last week. However, after last week's more than expected inflation data came out, inflation expectations rose, rate hike expectations heated up sharply and the market entered tightening trading. For the interpretation of current inflation and market expectations, we believe that:</b></p><p><b>In terms of supply chain, the delivery price dropped sharply, and the internal and external logistics pressure in the United States eased significantly.</b>The number of ships waiting at berths and their peripheries in the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in the United States dropped significantly from 30 last week to 19, and the waiting time for ships entering berths in the ports continued the downward trend. In terms of logistics, the shipping price has dropped significantly recently, and the US logistics managers' index has continued to fall, among which the delivery price index has dropped by 8.6%, while the delivery capacity has increased sharply. At present, the improvement of logistics is the result of the joint action of supply and demand. Under the background of excess replenishment of labor force in transportation and warehousing industry and gradual decline of demand, the internal and external logistics situation in the United States is gradually recovering.</p><p><b>However, the supply uncertainty under the Russia-Ukraine conflict has further pushed up inflation expectations.</b>Although the supply chain data showed an obvious improvement in logistics, under the influence of the unexpected inflation data on June 10th, the inflation expectations of the market and residents went up further. At present, the high inflation is mainly caused by supply factors, and the unexpected rise in energy and food prices under the Russia-Ukraine conflict has pushed up inflation. The uncertainty of supply recovery also makes the market and residents' inflation expectations go up further.</p><p><b>With the tightening trading under the double killing of stocks and bonds, the rate hike is expected to heat up further.</b>The market's interest rate hike expectation for the full year of 2022 rose from 258bp last week to 293bp-that is, on the basis of previous expectations, it is expected that there will be one meeting in rate hike in addition to June and July of at least 50bp; Inflation expectations drive the US Treasury yields to rise rapidly. The 10-year US Treasury yields has now exceeded 3.24%, and the 10Y-2Y yield was once inverted; All three major U.S. stock indexes showed a downward trend, with the Nasdaq falling more than 5% in the week</p><p><b>Looking back, the Fed is caught in the dilemma of \"inflation\" and \"stagnation\", and the market will be in a stage of continuous volatility.</b>In May, the inflation level reached a new high this year, and the White House's political focus is still \"anti-inflation\". Until inflation clearly eases, the Fed may still maintain a hawkish attitude beyond expectations under multiple pressures. However, the rapid tightening of the Federal Reserve has put downward pressure on the economy. The negative feedback of the downward trend of the stock market on household consumption and the rising financing cost of enterprises have also put some pressure on the goal of \"soft landing\" of the Federal Reserve. As there is little room for the Fed's policy adjustment, the current market is still in a period of high volatility that is sensitive to the Fed's statement and inflation signal.</p><p><b>Risk: The persistence of inflation in the United States exceeds expectations, and the tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve exceeds expectations.</b></p><p><b>'Inflation-Fed Tightening' Clue Tracker</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6aff3e63e3824b2bc26117938fb09fa0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28fc9732996e86da944102c9cf7a3786\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3e5270d56b3f873cadfd06410181b3c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3351a99c1da9973de229674821271f41\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472d5d3761859cd07c90106e7cfc73d0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Markets: rate hike Expected to Heat Up Further</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18a4ee59973516c806f18952515f89c8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97b7f8aba71e39a4c71df266ddc88c6d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d22e156c3886d8a22b3a926ba1650b19\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b14104dd50de699bb1b7b65dc2beb3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e962656495ec9f5f0aacd42112a7caea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"579\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Inflation: Residents' inflation expectations climb, port and logistics pressures continue to ease</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df8d97196eb49598c49e2d66d37cc69e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14093036dfc5b3ae54e7ec359ff6ba92\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1751b178d4b40f9f53651223ebc8f85f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"605\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d0d40ea5a09a8f992e3e91d21878164\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"555\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61e87601f799546f86e3a8acda46b8a2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de8085c6477627e4ac7ec51d1e036585\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk: The persistence of inflation in the United States exceeds expectations, and the tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve exceeds expectations.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1642125700961","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>FOMC is approaching, how does rate hike expect to perform?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFOMC is approaching, how does rate hike expect to perform?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">泓观卓见</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-14 09:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>FOMC will be held on June 15th (Wednesday), Eastern Time, and the Federal Reserve has entered a silent period since last week. However, after last week's more than expected inflation data came out, inflation expectations rose, rate hike expectations heated up sharply and the market entered tightening trading. For the interpretation of current inflation and market expectations, we believe that:</b></p><p><b>In terms of supply chain, the delivery price dropped sharply, and the internal and external logistics pressure in the United States eased significantly.</b>The number of ships waiting at berths and their peripheries in the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in the United States dropped significantly from 30 last week to 19, and the waiting time for ships entering berths in the ports continued the downward trend. In terms of logistics, the shipping price has dropped significantly recently, and the US logistics managers' index has continued to fall, among which the delivery price index has dropped by 8.6%, while the delivery capacity has increased sharply. At present, the improvement of logistics is the result of the joint action of supply and demand. Under the background of excess replenishment of labor force in transportation and warehousing industry and gradual decline of demand, the internal and external logistics situation in the United States is gradually recovering.</p><p><b>However, the supply uncertainty under the Russia-Ukraine conflict has further pushed up inflation expectations.</b>Although the supply chain data showed an obvious improvement in logistics, under the influence of the unexpected inflation data on June 10th, the inflation expectations of the market and residents went up further. At present, the high inflation is mainly caused by supply factors, and the unexpected rise in energy and food prices under the Russia-Ukraine conflict has pushed up inflation. The uncertainty of supply recovery also makes the market and residents' inflation expectations go up further.</p><p><b>With the tightening trading under the double killing of stocks and bonds, the rate hike is expected to heat up further.</b>The market's interest rate hike expectation for the full year of 2022 rose from 258bp last week to 293bp-that is, on the basis of previous expectations, it is expected that there will be one meeting in rate hike in addition to June and July of at least 50bp; Inflation expectations drive the US Treasury yields to rise rapidly. The 10-year US Treasury yields has now exceeded 3.24%, and the 10Y-2Y yield was once inverted; All three major U.S. stock indexes showed a downward trend, with the Nasdaq falling more than 5% in the week</p><p><b>Looking back, the Fed is caught in the dilemma of \"inflation\" and \"stagnation\", and the market will be in a stage of continuous volatility.</b>In May, the inflation level reached a new high this year, and the White House's political focus is still \"anti-inflation\". Until inflation clearly eases, the Fed may still maintain a hawkish attitude beyond expectations under multiple pressures. However, the rapid tightening of the Federal Reserve has put downward pressure on the economy. The negative feedback of the downward trend of the stock market on household consumption and the rising financing cost of enterprises have also put some pressure on the goal of \"soft landing\" of the Federal Reserve. As there is little room for the Fed's policy adjustment, the current market is still in a period of high volatility that is sensitive to the Fed's statement and inflation signal.</p><p><b>Risk: The persistence of inflation in the United States exceeds expectations, and the tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve exceeds expectations.</b></p><p><b>'Inflation-Fed Tightening' Clue Tracker</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6aff3e63e3824b2bc26117938fb09fa0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28fc9732996e86da944102c9cf7a3786\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3e5270d56b3f873cadfd06410181b3c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3351a99c1da9973de229674821271f41\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472d5d3761859cd07c90106e7cfc73d0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Markets: rate hike Expected to Heat Up Further</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18a4ee59973516c806f18952515f89c8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97b7f8aba71e39a4c71df266ddc88c6d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d22e156c3886d8a22b3a926ba1650b19\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b14104dd50de699bb1b7b65dc2beb3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e962656495ec9f5f0aacd42112a7caea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"579\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Inflation: Residents' inflation expectations climb, port and logistics pressures continue to ease</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df8d97196eb49598c49e2d66d37cc69e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14093036dfc5b3ae54e7ec359ff6ba92\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1751b178d4b40f9f53651223ebc8f85f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"605\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d0d40ea5a09a8f992e3e91d21878164\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"555\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61e87601f799546f86e3a8acda46b8a2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de8085c6477627e4ac7ec51d1e036585\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk: The persistence of inflation in the United States exceeds expectations, and the tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve exceeds expectations.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/dDIXhHtBrLKd9lfcunvTDQ\">泓观卓见</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","FOMC":"FOMO CORP."},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/dDIXhHtBrLKd9lfcunvTDQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146887080","content_text":"FOMC将于美东时间6月15日（周三）召开，上周起美联储进入缄默期。然而，上周超预期的通胀数据出炉后，通胀预期上升，加息预期大幅升温，市场进入紧缩交易。对于当前通胀与市场预期的解读，我们认为：供应链方面，交运价格大幅回落，美国内外部物流压力明显缓和。美国洛杉矶和长滩港在泊位及其外围等待的船只数量从上周的30只明显回落至19只，港口进入泊位船舶等待时间延续下降趋势。物流方面，近期海运价格明显下滑，美国物流经理人指数持续回落，其中交运价格指数回落8.6%，而交运能力大幅上升。当前物流的好转是由供给和需求共同作用的结果，在交运仓储行业劳动力的超额回补以及需求逐渐回落的背景下，美国内外部物流情况逐渐恢复。然而，俄乌冲突下的供给不确定性进一步推升通胀预期。尽管供应链数据呈现物流的明显好转，但6月10日超预期的通胀数据影响下，市场及居民通胀预期进一步上行。当前来看，高企的通胀主要是由于供给因素导致的，俄乌冲突下的能源和食品价格超预期上涨推升了通胀。对于供给恢复的不确定性也使得市场和居民通胀预期进一步上行。股债双杀下的紧缩交易，加息预期进一步升温。市场对2022年全年加息预期从上周258bp上行至293bp——即在此前预期的基础上预期除6、7月外还将有一次会议加息至少50bp；通胀预期驱动美债利率快速上行，10年期美债利率当前已突破3.24%，且10Y-2Y收益率一度倒挂；美国三大股指均呈现下行趋势，纳斯达克当周跌幅超5%往后看，联储陷入“胀”与“滞”的两难，市场将处于持续波动的阶段。5月通胀水平再创年内新高，白宫的政治重心仍然在“抗通胀”，在通胀明确缓解之前，多重压力下联储或仍将保持超预期的鹰派态度。然而，联储的快速收紧已经给经济造成了下行压力，股市下行对居民消费的负反馈以及企业融资成本的上升，也为联储“软着陆”的目标造成了一定的压力。由于联储政策调整的空间已经不大，当前市场仍处于对于联储表态和通胀信号较为敏感的高波动期。风险提示：美国通胀持续性超预期，联储货币政策收紧超预期。“通胀-联储收紧”线索追踪市场：加息预期进一步升温通胀：居民通胀预期攀升，港口和物流压力持续缓解风险提示：美国通胀持续性超预期，联储货币政策收紧超预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FOMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1766,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9058493994,"gmtCreate":1654873225218,"gmtModify":1676535526427,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"q","listText":"q","text":"q","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9058493994","repostId":"1153800529","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153800529","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1654871594,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153800529?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-10 22:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. regulators launch investigation into some semiconductor devices as semiconductor sector moves lower","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153800529","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摩根士丹利今日下调多只半导体股票目标价。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The semiconductor sector of U.S. stocks fell. As of press time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>Down 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRVL\">Maiwell Technologies</a>down 4.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>down 4.2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ONNN\">ON Semiconductor</a>Semiconductors fell 3.2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NXPI\">NXP</a>Semiconductor, AMD fell about 2.4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b0920e77e233d506122c292e77f70c2\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the news side,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Cut several semiconductor stock price targets today. In addition, the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) formally launched a 337 investigation into electronic and semiconductor devices with timing-aware virtual fill and their components, involving Lenovo, NXP, Nvidia,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>Wait for well-known manufacturers.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. regulators launch investigation into some semiconductor devices as semiconductor sector moves lower</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. regulators launch investigation into some semiconductor devices as semiconductor sector moves lower\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-10 22:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The semiconductor sector of U.S. stocks fell. As of press time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>Down 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRVL\">Maiwell Technologies</a>down 4.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>down 4.2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ONNN\">ON Semiconductor</a>Semiconductors fell 3.2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NXPI\">NXP</a>Semiconductor, AMD fell about 2.4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b0920e77e233d506122c292e77f70c2\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the news side,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Cut several semiconductor stock price targets today. In addition, the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) formally launched a 337 investigation into electronic and semiconductor devices with timing-aware virtual fill and their components, involving Lenovo, NXP, Nvidia,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>Wait for well-known manufacturers.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7308276753c5ff6ceaac8e2cceebffd3","relate_stocks":{"MRVL":"迈威尔科技","NXPI":"恩智浦","AMD":"美国超微公司","NVDA":"英伟达","AMD.AU":"Arrow Minerals Ltd","GFS":"GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153800529","content_text":"美股半导体板块走低，截至发稿，英伟达跌5%，迈威尔科技跌4.4%，美光科技跌4.2%，安森美半导体跌3.2%，恩智浦半导体、AMD跌约2.4%。消息面上，摩根士丹利今日下调多只半导体股票目标价。此外，美国国际贸易委员会(ITC)正式对带有计时感知虚拟填充的电子设备和半导体设备及其组件启动337调查，涉及联想、NXP、英伟达、AMD等知名大厂。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GFS":0.9,"MRVL":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"AMD.AU":0.9,"NXPI":0.9,"AMD":0.9,"ITC":0.9,"ONNN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1053,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9058493085,"gmtCreate":1654873218447,"gmtModify":1676535526419,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"u","listText":"u","text":"u","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9058493085","repostId":"1153800529","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153800529","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1654871594,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153800529?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-10 22:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. regulators launch investigation into some semiconductor devices as semiconductor sector moves lower","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153800529","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摩根士丹利今日下调多只半导体股票目标价。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The semiconductor sector of U.S. stocks fell. As of press time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>Down 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRVL\">Maiwell Technologies</a>down 4.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>down 4.2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ONNN\">ON Semiconductor</a>Semiconductors fell 3.2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NXPI\">NXP</a>Semiconductor, AMD fell about 2.4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b0920e77e233d506122c292e77f70c2\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the news side,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Cut several semiconductor stock price targets today. In addition, the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) formally launched a 337 investigation into electronic and semiconductor devices with timing-aware virtual fill and their components, involving Lenovo, NXP, Nvidia,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>Wait for well-known manufacturers.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. regulators launch investigation into some semiconductor devices as semiconductor sector moves lower</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. regulators launch investigation into some semiconductor devices as semiconductor sector moves lower\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-10 22:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The semiconductor sector of U.S. stocks fell. As of press time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>Down 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRVL\">Maiwell Technologies</a>down 4.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>down 4.2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ONNN\">ON Semiconductor</a>Semiconductors fell 3.2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NXPI\">NXP</a>Semiconductor, AMD fell about 2.4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b0920e77e233d506122c292e77f70c2\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the news side,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Cut several semiconductor stock price targets today. In addition, the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) formally launched a 337 investigation into electronic and semiconductor devices with timing-aware virtual fill and their components, involving Lenovo, NXP, Nvidia,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>Wait for well-known manufacturers.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7308276753c5ff6ceaac8e2cceebffd3","relate_stocks":{"MRVL":"迈威尔科技","NXPI":"恩智浦","AMD":"美国超微公司","NVDA":"英伟达","AMD.AU":"Arrow Minerals Ltd","GFS":"GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153800529","content_text":"美股半导体板块走低，截至发稿，英伟达跌5%，迈威尔科技跌4.4%，美光科技跌4.2%，安森美半导体跌3.2%，恩智浦半导体、AMD跌约2.4%。消息面上，摩根士丹利今日下调多只半导体股票目标价。此外，美国国际贸易委员会(ITC)正式对带有计时感知虚拟填充的电子设备和半导体设备及其组件启动337调查，涉及联想、NXP、英伟达、AMD等知名大厂。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GFS":0.9,"MRVL":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"AMD.AU":0.9,"NXPI":0.9,"AMD":0.9,"ITC":0.9,"ONNN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1199,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9051649192,"gmtCreate":1654691467716,"gmtModify":1676535492472,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"q","listText":"q","text":"q","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9051649192","repostId":"1175032578","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175032578","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1654701013,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175032578?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-08 23:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Financial OneConnect jumped 40% in the session, and the company will raise the cap on share buybacks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175032578","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"公司计划在2月24日至9月30日期间，利用现有资金完成回购计划。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On Tuesday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCFT\">Financial OneConnect</a>Intraday surge of 40%. On the news, with the approval of the board of directors, Financial OneConnect will raise the upper limit of the company's share repurchase from 2% to 3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dce0f15ae472c6bf8df7a492b9fe7bce\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It is understood that on February 24th this year, Financial OneConnect announced that the company plans to use the existing funds to complete the repurchase plan from February 24th to September 30th, and repurchase no more than 2% of the shares for the equity incentive of the company's employees. According to the latest performance report released by the company, as of April 29, the company has repurchased about 4.2 million ADSs, amounting to about $5.9 million.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Financial OneConnect jumped 40% in the session, and the company will raise the cap on share buybacks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFinancial OneConnect jumped 40% in the session, and the company will raise the cap on share buybacks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-08 23:10</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On Tuesday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCFT\">Financial OneConnect</a>Intraday surge of 40%. On the news, with the approval of the board of directors, Financial OneConnect will raise the upper limit of the company's share repurchase from 2% to 3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dce0f15ae472c6bf8df7a492b9fe7bce\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It is understood that on February 24th this year, Financial OneConnect announced that the company plans to use the existing funds to complete the repurchase plan from February 24th to September 30th, and repurchase no more than 2% of the shares for the equity incentive of the company's employees. According to the latest performance report released by the company, as of April 29, the company has repurchased about 4.2 million ADSs, amounting to about $5.9 million.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92b9f56dd93dfdc762470ab1cfed44a5","relate_stocks":{"OCFT":"金融壹账通"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175032578","content_text":"周二，金融壹账通盘中大涨40%。消息面上，经董事会批准，金融壹账通将提高公司股份回购上限，由2%提升至3%。据了解，今年2月24日，金融壹账通曾发布公告称，公司计划在2月24日至9月30日期间，利用现有资金完成回购计划，回购不超过2%的股份用于公司员工股权激励。公司最新发布的业绩报告显示，截至4月29日，公司已回购约420万美国存托股份，金额约590万美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"OCFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1344,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9051649930,"gmtCreate":1654691460320,"gmtModify":1676535492489,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"y","listText":"y","text":"y","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9051649930","repostId":"1175032578","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1616,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9053688479,"gmtCreate":1654528783091,"gmtModify":1676535463387,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"g","listText":"g","text":"g","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9053688479","repostId":"1125897168","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125897168","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1654527629,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1125897168?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-06 23:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. streaming concept stocks rose broadly, fuboTV, Google rose nearly 4%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125897168","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周一，美股流媒体概念股普涨，fuboTV、谷歌涨近4%，ROKU涨2.43%，苹果涨1.85%，迪士尼涨0.9%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On Monday, U.S. streaming concept stocks rose broadly, fuboTV,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Up nearly 4%, ROKU up 2.43%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>up 1.85%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Disney</a>up 0.9%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/474b2520e0a2c0c09d08b2622b8bde83\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. streaming concept stocks rose broadly, fuboTV, Google rose nearly 4%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. streaming concept stocks rose broadly, fuboTV, Google rose nearly 4%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-06 23:00</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On Monday, U.S. streaming concept stocks rose broadly, fuboTV,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Up nearly 4%, ROKU up 2.43%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>up 1.85%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Disney</a>up 0.9%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/474b2520e0a2c0c09d08b2622b8bde83\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76245d50d95721d5034474d41d913c76","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","FUBO":"fuboTV Inc.","GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125897168","content_text":"周一，美股流媒体概念股普涨，fuboTV、谷歌涨近4%，ROKU涨2.43%，苹果涨1.85%，迪士尼涨0.9%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":0.9,"FUBO":0.9,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1175,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059748216,"gmtCreate":1654441130835,"gmtModify":1676535448168,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"R","listText":"R","text":"R","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059748216","repostId":"1186538622","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1293,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9085392512,"gmtCreate":1650641096769,"gmtModify":1676534769538,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575347610709013","idStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9085392512","repostId":"1160397462","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":875,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364489754,"gmtCreate":1614869803878,"gmtModify":1704776342763,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575347610709013","idStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364489754","repostId":"1138523117","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138523117","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1614859868,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138523117?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-04 20:11","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"BYD's sales of new energy vehicles increased by 207.30% year-on-year from January to February","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138523117","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"比亚迪股份：2月新能源汽车销量10355辆 。1-2月新能源汽车销量累计为30533辆，同比增长207.30%。","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01211\">BYD Shares</a>: New energy vehicles sold 10,355 units in February.</p><p>From January to February, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles amounted to 30,533 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 207.30%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44f26ead499d3537e8c303acb22b677a\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BYD's sales of new energy vehicles increased by 207.30% year-on-year from January to February</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBYD's sales of new energy vehicles increased by 207.30% year-on-year from January to February\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-04 20:11</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01211\">BYD Shares</a>: New energy vehicles sold 10,355 units in February.</p><p>From January to February, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles amounted to 30,533 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 207.30%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44f26ead499d3537e8c303acb22b677a\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd50c4c364250ebb8dae90576a876362","relate_stocks":{"002594":"比亚迪","01211":"比亚迪股份","BYDDY":"比亚迪ADR","00285":"比亚迪电子"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138523117","content_text":"比亚迪股份：2月新能源汽车销量10355辆 。1-2月新能源汽车销量累计为30533辆，同比增长207.30%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BYDDY":0.9,"002594":0.9,"00285":0.9,"01211":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9058493085,"gmtCreate":1654873218447,"gmtModify":1676535526419,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575347610709013","idStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"u","listText":"u","text":"u","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9058493085","repostId":"1153800529","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153800529","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1654871594,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153800529?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-10 22:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. regulators launch investigation into some semiconductor devices as semiconductor sector moves lower","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153800529","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摩根士丹利今日下调多只半导体股票目标价。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The semiconductor sector of U.S. stocks fell. As of press time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>Down 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRVL\">Maiwell Technologies</a>down 4.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>down 4.2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ONNN\">ON Semiconductor</a>Semiconductors fell 3.2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NXPI\">NXP</a>Semiconductor, AMD fell about 2.4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b0920e77e233d506122c292e77f70c2\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the news side,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Cut several semiconductor stock price targets today. In addition, the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) formally launched a 337 investigation into electronic and semiconductor devices with timing-aware virtual fill and their components, involving Lenovo, NXP, Nvidia,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>Wait for well-known manufacturers.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. regulators launch investigation into some semiconductor devices as semiconductor sector moves lower</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. regulators launch investigation into some semiconductor devices as semiconductor sector moves lower\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-10 22:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The semiconductor sector of U.S. stocks fell. As of press time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>Down 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRVL\">Maiwell Technologies</a>down 4.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>down 4.2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ONNN\">ON Semiconductor</a>Semiconductors fell 3.2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NXPI\">NXP</a>Semiconductor, AMD fell about 2.4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b0920e77e233d506122c292e77f70c2\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the news side,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Cut several semiconductor stock price targets today. In addition, the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) formally launched a 337 investigation into electronic and semiconductor devices with timing-aware virtual fill and their components, involving Lenovo, NXP, Nvidia,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>Wait for well-known manufacturers.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7308276753c5ff6ceaac8e2cceebffd3","relate_stocks":{"MRVL":"迈威尔科技","NXPI":"恩智浦","AMD":"美国超微公司","NVDA":"英伟达","AMD.AU":"Arrow Minerals Ltd","GFS":"GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153800529","content_text":"美股半导体板块走低，截至发稿，英伟达跌5%，迈威尔科技跌4.4%，美光科技跌4.2%，安森美半导体跌3.2%，恩智浦半导体、AMD跌约2.4%。消息面上，摩根士丹利今日下调多只半导体股票目标价。此外，美国国际贸易委员会(ITC)正式对带有计时感知虚拟填充的电子设备和半导体设备及其组件启动337调查，涉及联想、NXP、英伟达、AMD等知名大厂。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GFS":0.9,"MRVL":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"AMD.AU":0.9,"NXPI":0.9,"AMD":0.9,"ITC":0.9,"ONNN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1199,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9015101688,"gmtCreate":1649433249291,"gmtModify":1676534511975,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575347610709013","idStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9015101688","repostId":"2225543444","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2225543444","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1649380570,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2225543444?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-08 09:16","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"rate hike is ruthless! The Unsolved Mystery of the Federal Reserve 1994","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2225543444","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"1994年的特殊之处在于激进加息下经济实现了少见的软着陆，美元指数持续贬值，以及美债收益率阶段性见顶。加息和缩表不断提速，美联储官员近期频频援引1994年作为本轮紧缩周期的参考对象。2022年3月美联","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>What made 1994 special was that the economy achieved a rare soft landing under the radical rate hike, the the US Dollar Index continued to depreciate, and the yield of U.S. bonds peaked in stages.</b>rate hike and shrinking balance sheet have been accelerating, and Fed officials have recently frequently cited 1994 as the reference object of this tightening cycle. Since the first rate hike of the Federal Reserve in March 2022, the market's rate hike expectation for the year has exceeded 200bp. Since the 1990s, only rate hike in 1994 has reached a similar magnitude (250bp) (Figure 1). What makes 1994 special is that the economy achieved a rare soft landing under a radical rate hike.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b91bef331c1267aea4e5a094003c08ea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Otherwise, there are indeed quite a few similarities between 2022 and 1994 in terms of the performance of major assets (Figure 2), but the performance of the US Dollar Index is quite different, with the US Dollar Index already appreciating 3% in the first quarter of 2022, but the dollar depreciating by more than 8% for the full year of 1994. Observing the performance of the bond market that year, the yield of the 10-year Treasury Bond basically remained fluctuating from May to September after experiencing a sharp rise at the beginning of the year, while the rate hike of the Federal Reserve was 100bp in the same period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/012cdfa63ebfac71477219abde1d6305\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>We call the above-mentioned \"soft landing of the economy\", \"the depreciation of the US dollar\" and \"the debt of rate hike will not fall\" the three puzzles of 1994. We try to analyze the similarities and differences between 2022 and 1994 from these three puzzles, and look for clues of policy and asset changes.</p><p><b>Puzzle 1: \"Soft landing for the economy\"</b></p><p>Holding down the signs of inflation, \"forward-looking rate hike\" is an important foundation. After Volcker's inflation control period in 1980s, in 1994, the Federal Reserve under Greenspan's leadership attached great importance to inflation, adopted the framework of \"forward-looking rate hike\", and made decisive rate hike when the output gap had not turned positive and inflationary pressure appeared. The advantage of this is that the economy has better cushioning in both kinetic energy and space (Figure 3).<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d89054bcab5d0c79f3a3cd1b2e6b4362\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"647\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Monetary policy is flexible enough to cut interest rates decisively when the time comes. Three weeks after the first rate hike of the Federal Reserve in February 1994 and the last rate hike (50bp) in February 1995, Fed Chairman Greenspan hinted at the possibility of an early response to the recession in congressional hearings. And took two precautionary rate cuts in July 1995 and January 1996 (rather than waiting until a recession occurred).</p><p>Luck is equally important, and the stability of the external environment is an important guarantee for the Fed's \"precise regulation\". In 1994, Germany and Japan emerged from recession, and the global resonance recovered; Major countries have reached multilateral trade agreements, and WTO is about to be established; Russia is still under the pro-Anglo-American Yeltsin; The largest increase in oil price was 47%, and the annual increase was 25%, which is still controllable. As former Federal Reserve Chairwoman Yellen says in her book:</p><p>While there is no doubt about the cleverness of the Fed's policy shifts, the Fed was also fortunate that there were no major shocks between 1994 and 1995 to undermine the soft landing of the economy it was trying to achieve.</p><p>Just like this, it is very difficult for the United States to achieve a \"soft landing of the economy\" under radical austerity in this round. As shown in Figure 4, this round of Fed rate hike has lost its \"first-hand advantage\". The positive output gap means that the Fed's rate hike is lagging behind. Under such conditions, the tightening of financial conditions brought by tightening will have obvious side effects on economic momentum (Figures 4 and 5), and this sign has been reflected in the data of US PMI (Figures 6 and 7)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0a0aedbf7e04d5b8dfc1d7136851ccd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"733\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a69af45f3b5cc7b56cd84c9e8a822d0\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"813\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fe7f81c8fddd459244f2654affbb2bc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>In addition, in the external environment, the economies of China and Europe have not yet stabilized, and the epidemic and geopolitical shocks continue, which will undoubtedly make it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to regulate the economy and inflation. Going forward, the Fed may have to trade-off between moving to easing earlier than planned and using recession to curb inflation. It will also test whether the White House has the courage to head into the 2024 presidential election with a recession.</p><p><b>Puzzle 2: \"The Great Depreciation of the Dollar\"</b></p><p>Why did the US Dollar Index continue to depreciate under the Fed's aggressive rate hike in 1994? This may be the biggest puzzle in the performance of core assets in the United States and even the world that year.</p><p>Neither the common angles of monetary policy, interest spreads or capital flows can explain the weakness of the dollar in 1994. In February 1994, the Federal Reserve started its rate hike (until February 1995), and in the same period, Germany and Japan were both in the interest rate cut cycle. Under this background, the long-and-short interest rate spread between the United States and other major developed economies (represented by Germany, Japan and Britain) fluctuated and widened, and the correlation with the US Dollar Index decreased obviously, or even showed a certain negative correlation. In terms of cross-border capital flows, except at the beginning of the year, in 1994, foreign investment continued to increase the allocation of US assets (especially US debt), while American investors continued to reduce their holdings of overseas assets. The resulting net inflow of funds also did not form the basis for the depreciation of the US dollar (Figures 8 to 11).<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b67a87c38d13d5631132c1bdfef8b539\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab714361a1e8bcb52e2937c78096afc3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>We find that the above three aspects are actually judging the exchange rate from the perspective of capital arbitrage and capital flow, that is, funds tend to flow to high-interest assets, pushing up the exchange rate of related currencies. But in addition, the US dollar, as the most important reserve currency in the world, plays an important intermediary role in the global economic and financial system. Its particularity lies in the fact that the US dollar exchange rate is also a thermometer of global economy and trade, that is, the global economic recovery and trade expansion often correspond to the depreciation of the US dollar.</p><p>The global resonant recovery in 1994, represented by Germany and Japan, was an important factor in the weakening of the dollar<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/838275\">driving force</a>。 The rate hike cycle in Germany and Japan from the late 1980s to the early 1990s led to European currency crises (such as the Soros raid on the pound in 1992) and the burst of Japanese asset bubbles, with Germany and Japan both falling into negative growth in 1993. However, in 1994, the global economy and trade bottomed out and rebounded obviously. On the one hand, the economic resonance recovery of Germany and Japan supported the global economy; On the other hand, global multilateral trade agreements reached important agreements in 1994, and the World Trade Organization was formally established in January 1995. Global trade expanded significantly under the acceleration of globalization (Figure 12).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7d56f0cbe3973aa9ff7786a6a5a12c9\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"879\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This pattern is not uncommon in history, and even when the Federal Reserve is in a tightening cycle, global economic recovery and trade expansion can lead to weak dollar performance, such as in 2013 and 2017 (Figure 13).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d728dae99dbec64f4e1c730d59bac5f8\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>In the 21st century, with China's incorporation into the global trading system, China gradually replaced Germany and Japan as the (non-American) engine of the global economy, and China's economy became a forward-looking indicator of the trend of the US Dollar Index. As shown in Figure 12, although the RMB is not in the currency basket of the US Dollar Index, China's influence on the US dollar is mainly through the means of affecting the growth of global non-US economies: China's economic recovery-driving the global economic recovery (we are represented by Germany and Japan) -the US Dollar Index weakens (Figures 14 and 15).<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42263e61405c769fd2e38540ad7c0d2c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>There are two important conditions for the transmission of the above logic and channels: first, the endogenous recovery of China's economy stabilizes, and second, China's economic recovery can be effectively transmitted to the world. And these two points will face certain constraints in 2022.</p><p>Taking history as a mirror, regardless of the policy, interest rate spread or the logic of global economic recovery, the US dollar index will not follow the same path as in 1994 in 2022, and will remain relatively strong in the second quarter. From the perspective of policy and spread, the Federal Reserve has entered a cycle of accelerating rate hike. However, affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the European Central Bank remains cautious, while the Bank of Japan continues to adhere to the policy of controlling the long-term Treasury Bond yield. Under the policy differentiation, the nominal and actual spreads between the United States and Europe and Japan are widening.</p><p>China's economy is unstable and the Russia-Ukraine conflict is the core gambling point of the global recovery-US dollar weakening logic. Since 2022, the efforts to stabilize domestic growth are still insufficient to hedge against the weakness of real estate, and it will still take time to transmit from the turning point of real estate policy to the stabilization of real estate. Coupled with the impact of the new round of epidemic outbreak, China's economy will bottom out for the second time in the second quarter. The impact of commodity production, financial market turmoil and geopolitical tension caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and continuous fermentation will all become important obstacles to the resonant recovery of the global economy.</p><p>We believe that the US Dollar Index will stand at 100 in phases in the second quarter of 2022. In addition to the above bullish factors for the US dollar, the expectation and landing of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet in the second quarter will add fuel to the fire of the US Dollar Index, and the US Dollar Index will stand at 100 in stages. However, we expect the the US Dollar Index to retreat at the end of the second quarter and the second half of 2022 as more positive signals emerge from the Chinese economy and the negative impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict marginally weakens.</p><p>Mystery Three: \"rate hike Debt Does Not Fall\"</p><p>Lack of expectations at the start and over-expectations after rate hike. The Federal Reserve under Greenspan in 1994 was far less transparent in decision-making and market communication than its successors such as Bernanke and Yellen. One result of this is that before the start of the rate hike, the market expectation was obviously insufficient, while after the continuous rate hike of the Federal Reserve, the market expectation was \"overkill\". Before the interest rate meeting in May, the market had already expected that the rate hike would exceed 170bp during the year, while as of September 1994, the actual rate hike of the Federal Reserve was 175bp. This left money and bond markets stagnant between May and September (Figure 16).</p><p>There is a clear market jump-start in 2022, and the probability of a repeat in 1994 is not small. Different from 1994, the current communication transparency of the Federal Reserve has been greatly improved, which has led to a very obvious rush in market expectations. The Federal Reserve only had a rate hike of 25bp in March, and the market has already priced the rate hike to be close to 250bp during the year. Too aggressive market expectations directly lead to the inversion of the long and short end of the yield of U.S. bonds. This is clearly unsustainable (Figure 17).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce2cd6dea0e9986981c887e66b9e76b0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"797\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>After the impact of the shrinking balance sheet, the yield of U.S. bonds will peak in stages. In addition to rate hike, the fuel for the rise of U.S. debt in 2022 is shrinking balance sheet, and the continued rise of 10-year U.S. debt since the beginning of April is precisely the pricing of the radical shrinking balance sheet-starting in May, the monthly shrinking balance sheet may be $95 billion, and the pace of shrinking balance sheet is faster than the previous round. After the shrinking balance sheet settles, the motivation for the 10-year U.S. bond yield to continue to rise may be insufficient, and it will fall into a similar volatile market in mid-1994.</p><p>Risk: The global epidemic outbreak once again exceeded market expectations, the US economy suffered heavy losses, and the Federal Reserve was forced to suspend interest rate cuts or even return to easing. Significant progress has been made in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and Europe and the United States have lifted sanctions on Russia. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has escalated sharply, and oil prices have continued to rise sharply, resulting in a rise in U.S. bond yields and U.S. dollars beyond market expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>rate hike is ruthless! The Unsolved Mystery of the Federal Reserve 1994</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nrate hike is ruthless! The Unsolved Mystery of the Federal Reserve 1994\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">川阅全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-08 09:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>What made 1994 special was that the economy achieved a rare soft landing under the radical rate hike, the the US Dollar Index continued to depreciate, and the yield of U.S. bonds peaked in stages.</b>rate hike and shrinking balance sheet have been accelerating, and Fed officials have recently frequently cited 1994 as the reference object of this tightening cycle. Since the first rate hike of the Federal Reserve in March 2022, the market's rate hike expectation for the year has exceeded 200bp. Since the 1990s, only rate hike in 1994 has reached a similar magnitude (250bp) (Figure 1). What makes 1994 special is that the economy achieved a rare soft landing under a radical rate hike.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b91bef331c1267aea4e5a094003c08ea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Otherwise, there are indeed quite a few similarities between 2022 and 1994 in terms of the performance of major assets (Figure 2), but the performance of the US Dollar Index is quite different, with the US Dollar Index already appreciating 3% in the first quarter of 2022, but the dollar depreciating by more than 8% for the full year of 1994. Observing the performance of the bond market that year, the yield of the 10-year Treasury Bond basically remained fluctuating from May to September after experiencing a sharp rise at the beginning of the year, while the rate hike of the Federal Reserve was 100bp in the same period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/012cdfa63ebfac71477219abde1d6305\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>We call the above-mentioned \"soft landing of the economy\", \"the depreciation of the US dollar\" and \"the debt of rate hike will not fall\" the three puzzles of 1994. We try to analyze the similarities and differences between 2022 and 1994 from these three puzzles, and look for clues of policy and asset changes.</p><p><b>Puzzle 1: \"Soft landing for the economy\"</b></p><p>Holding down the signs of inflation, \"forward-looking rate hike\" is an important foundation. After Volcker's inflation control period in 1980s, in 1994, the Federal Reserve under Greenspan's leadership attached great importance to inflation, adopted the framework of \"forward-looking rate hike\", and made decisive rate hike when the output gap had not turned positive and inflationary pressure appeared. The advantage of this is that the economy has better cushioning in both kinetic energy and space (Figure 3).<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d89054bcab5d0c79f3a3cd1b2e6b4362\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"647\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Monetary policy is flexible enough to cut interest rates decisively when the time comes. Three weeks after the first rate hike of the Federal Reserve in February 1994 and the last rate hike (50bp) in February 1995, Fed Chairman Greenspan hinted at the possibility of an early response to the recession in congressional hearings. And took two precautionary rate cuts in July 1995 and January 1996 (rather than waiting until a recession occurred).</p><p>Luck is equally important, and the stability of the external environment is an important guarantee for the Fed's \"precise regulation\". In 1994, Germany and Japan emerged from recession, and the global resonance recovered; Major countries have reached multilateral trade agreements, and WTO is about to be established; Russia is still under the pro-Anglo-American Yeltsin; The largest increase in oil price was 47%, and the annual increase was 25%, which is still controllable. As former Federal Reserve Chairwoman Yellen says in her book:</p><p>While there is no doubt about the cleverness of the Fed's policy shifts, the Fed was also fortunate that there were no major shocks between 1994 and 1995 to undermine the soft landing of the economy it was trying to achieve.</p><p>Just like this, it is very difficult for the United States to achieve a \"soft landing of the economy\" under radical austerity in this round. As shown in Figure 4, this round of Fed rate hike has lost its \"first-hand advantage\". The positive output gap means that the Fed's rate hike is lagging behind. Under such conditions, the tightening of financial conditions brought by tightening will have obvious side effects on economic momentum (Figures 4 and 5), and this sign has been reflected in the data of US PMI (Figures 6 and 7)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0a0aedbf7e04d5b8dfc1d7136851ccd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"733\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a69af45f3b5cc7b56cd84c9e8a822d0\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"813\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fe7f81c8fddd459244f2654affbb2bc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>In addition, in the external environment, the economies of China and Europe have not yet stabilized, and the epidemic and geopolitical shocks continue, which will undoubtedly make it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to regulate the economy and inflation. Going forward, the Fed may have to trade-off between moving to easing earlier than planned and using recession to curb inflation. It will also test whether the White House has the courage to head into the 2024 presidential election with a recession.</p><p><b>Puzzle 2: \"The Great Depreciation of the Dollar\"</b></p><p>Why did the US Dollar Index continue to depreciate under the Fed's aggressive rate hike in 1994? This may be the biggest puzzle in the performance of core assets in the United States and even the world that year.</p><p>Neither the common angles of monetary policy, interest spreads or capital flows can explain the weakness of the dollar in 1994. In February 1994, the Federal Reserve started its rate hike (until February 1995), and in the same period, Germany and Japan were both in the interest rate cut cycle. Under this background, the long-and-short interest rate spread between the United States and other major developed economies (represented by Germany, Japan and Britain) fluctuated and widened, and the correlation with the US Dollar Index decreased obviously, or even showed a certain negative correlation. In terms of cross-border capital flows, except at the beginning of the year, in 1994, foreign investment continued to increase the allocation of US assets (especially US debt), while American investors continued to reduce their holdings of overseas assets. The resulting net inflow of funds also did not form the basis for the depreciation of the US dollar (Figures 8 to 11).<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b67a87c38d13d5631132c1bdfef8b539\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab714361a1e8bcb52e2937c78096afc3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>We find that the above three aspects are actually judging the exchange rate from the perspective of capital arbitrage and capital flow, that is, funds tend to flow to high-interest assets, pushing up the exchange rate of related currencies. But in addition, the US dollar, as the most important reserve currency in the world, plays an important intermediary role in the global economic and financial system. Its particularity lies in the fact that the US dollar exchange rate is also a thermometer of global economy and trade, that is, the global economic recovery and trade expansion often correspond to the depreciation of the US dollar.</p><p>The global resonant recovery in 1994, represented by Germany and Japan, was an important factor in the weakening of the dollar<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/838275\">driving force</a>。 The rate hike cycle in Germany and Japan from the late 1980s to the early 1990s led to European currency crises (such as the Soros raid on the pound in 1992) and the burst of Japanese asset bubbles, with Germany and Japan both falling into negative growth in 1993. However, in 1994, the global economy and trade bottomed out and rebounded obviously. On the one hand, the economic resonance recovery of Germany and Japan supported the global economy; On the other hand, global multilateral trade agreements reached important agreements in 1994, and the World Trade Organization was formally established in January 1995. Global trade expanded significantly under the acceleration of globalization (Figure 12).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7d56f0cbe3973aa9ff7786a6a5a12c9\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"879\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This pattern is not uncommon in history, and even when the Federal Reserve is in a tightening cycle, global economic recovery and trade expansion can lead to weak dollar performance, such as in 2013 and 2017 (Figure 13).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d728dae99dbec64f4e1c730d59bac5f8\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>In the 21st century, with China's incorporation into the global trading system, China gradually replaced Germany and Japan as the (non-American) engine of the global economy, and China's economy became a forward-looking indicator of the trend of the US Dollar Index. As shown in Figure 12, although the RMB is not in the currency basket of the US Dollar Index, China's influence on the US dollar is mainly through the means of affecting the growth of global non-US economies: China's economic recovery-driving the global economic recovery (we are represented by Germany and Japan) -the US Dollar Index weakens (Figures 14 and 15).<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42263e61405c769fd2e38540ad7c0d2c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>There are two important conditions for the transmission of the above logic and channels: first, the endogenous recovery of China's economy stabilizes, and second, China's economic recovery can be effectively transmitted to the world. And these two points will face certain constraints in 2022.</p><p>Taking history as a mirror, regardless of the policy, interest rate spread or the logic of global economic recovery, the US dollar index will not follow the same path as in 1994 in 2022, and will remain relatively strong in the second quarter. From the perspective of policy and spread, the Federal Reserve has entered a cycle of accelerating rate hike. However, affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the European Central Bank remains cautious, while the Bank of Japan continues to adhere to the policy of controlling the long-term Treasury Bond yield. Under the policy differentiation, the nominal and actual spreads between the United States and Europe and Japan are widening.</p><p>China's economy is unstable and the Russia-Ukraine conflict is the core gambling point of the global recovery-US dollar weakening logic. Since 2022, the efforts to stabilize domestic growth are still insufficient to hedge against the weakness of real estate, and it will still take time to transmit from the turning point of real estate policy to the stabilization of real estate. Coupled with the impact of the new round of epidemic outbreak, China's economy will bottom out for the second time in the second quarter. The impact of commodity production, financial market turmoil and geopolitical tension caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and continuous fermentation will all become important obstacles to the resonant recovery of the global economy.</p><p>We believe that the US Dollar Index will stand at 100 in phases in the second quarter of 2022. In addition to the above bullish factors for the US dollar, the expectation and landing of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet in the second quarter will add fuel to the fire of the US Dollar Index, and the US Dollar Index will stand at 100 in stages. However, we expect the the US Dollar Index to retreat at the end of the second quarter and the second half of 2022 as more positive signals emerge from the Chinese economy and the negative impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict marginally weakens.</p><p>Mystery Three: \"rate hike Debt Does Not Fall\"</p><p>Lack of expectations at the start and over-expectations after rate hike. The Federal Reserve under Greenspan in 1994 was far less transparent in decision-making and market communication than its successors such as Bernanke and Yellen. One result of this is that before the start of the rate hike, the market expectation was obviously insufficient, while after the continuous rate hike of the Federal Reserve, the market expectation was \"overkill\". Before the interest rate meeting in May, the market had already expected that the rate hike would exceed 170bp during the year, while as of September 1994, the actual rate hike of the Federal Reserve was 175bp. This left money and bond markets stagnant between May and September (Figure 16).</p><p>There is a clear market jump-start in 2022, and the probability of a repeat in 1994 is not small. Different from 1994, the current communication transparency of the Federal Reserve has been greatly improved, which has led to a very obvious rush in market expectations. The Federal Reserve only had a rate hike of 25bp in March, and the market has already priced the rate hike to be close to 250bp during the year. Too aggressive market expectations directly lead to the inversion of the long and short end of the yield of U.S. bonds. This is clearly unsustainable (Figure 17).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce2cd6dea0e9986981c887e66b9e76b0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"797\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>After the impact of the shrinking balance sheet, the yield of U.S. bonds will peak in stages. In addition to rate hike, the fuel for the rise of U.S. debt in 2022 is shrinking balance sheet, and the continued rise of 10-year U.S. debt since the beginning of April is precisely the pricing of the radical shrinking balance sheet-starting in May, the monthly shrinking balance sheet may be $95 billion, and the pace of shrinking balance sheet is faster than the previous round. After the shrinking balance sheet settles, the motivation for the 10-year U.S. bond yield to continue to rise may be insufficient, and it will fall into a similar volatile market in mid-1994.</p><p>Risk: The global epidemic outbreak once again exceeded market expectations, the US economy suffered heavy losses, and the Federal Reserve was forced to suspend interest rate cuts or even return to easing. Significant progress has been made in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and Europe and the United States have lifted sanctions on Russia. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has escalated sharply, and oil prices have continued to rise sharply, resulting in a rise in U.S. bond yields and U.S. dollars beyond market expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUzMzEyODIyMA==&mid=2247497880&idx=1&sn=a07d519d213fb979b1674e0ad4086c86&chksm=faaa0debcddd84fd8869c1eb310518d6614465e7106c2aaa4d5a872beb87dbbcc46a6f0bbd82&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0408RHErvMrTpQauwZdh3VYe&sharer_sharetime=1649373991938&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51%23rd\">川阅全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09a7b30204158feaaaf0f4efc19f31f","relate_stocks":{"FXA":"澳元ETF-CurrencyShares","FXB":"英镑ETF-CurrencyShares","EUO":"欧元ETF-ProShares两倍做空","FXC":"加元ETF-CurrencyShares","YCS":"日元ETF-ProShares两倍做空","FXE":"欧元做多ETF-CurrencyShares","FXY":"日元ETF-CurrencyShares","FXF":"瑞士法郎ETF-CurrencyShares"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUzMzEyODIyMA==&mid=2247497880&idx=1&sn=a07d519d213fb979b1674e0ad4086c86&chksm=faaa0debcddd84fd8869c1eb310518d6614465e7106c2aaa4d5a872beb87dbbcc46a6f0bbd82&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0408RHErvMrTpQauwZdh3VYe&sharer_sharetime=1649373991938&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51%23rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2225543444","content_text":"1994年的特殊之处在于激进加息下经济实现了少见的软着陆，美元指数持续贬值，以及美债收益率阶段性见顶。加息和缩表不断提速，美联储官员近期频频援引1994年作为本轮紧缩周期的参考对象。2022年3月美联储首次加息以来，市场对年内的加息预期已经超过200bp，自1990s以来仅有1994年的加息达到类似的幅度（250bp）（图1），而1994年的特殊之处在于激进加息下经济实现了少见的软着陆。除此之外，从主要资产的表现来看，2022年和1994年确实存在不少相似之处（图2），但美元指数的表现却大相径庭，2022年第一季度美元指数已升值3%，但1994年全年美元贬值超过8%。而观察当年债市的表现，10年期国债收益率在经历年初的大涨之后，5月至9月基本保持震荡，而同期美联储加息100bp。我们将上述的“经济软着陆”，“美元大贬值”和“加息债不跌”称为1994年的三大谜题。我们试着从这三大谜题，分析2022年和1994年的异同，寻找政策和资产变化的蛛丝马迹。谜题一：“经济软着陆”按住通胀的苗头，“前瞻式加息”是重要基础。经历了20世纪80年代沃尔克治理通胀的时期后，1994年格林斯潘领导下的美联储十分重视通胀，采取的是“前瞻式加息”的框架，在产出缺口尚未转正，通胀压力出现苗头的情况下果断加息。这样的好处是经济在动能和空间上都有较好的缓冲垫（图3）。货币政策足够灵活，该降息时果断降息。1994年2月美联储首次加息，1995年2月最后一次加息（50bp），之后三周美联储主席格林斯潘在国会听证时即暗示可能会对经济衰退做出提前反映。并于1995年7月和1996年1月分别进行了2次预防式降息（而不是等到衰退出现）。运气同样重要，外部环境稳定是美联储“精准调控”的重要保障。1994年德国、日本走出衰退，全球共振复苏；主要国家达成多边贸易协定，WTO即将成立；俄罗斯仍在亲英美的叶利钦治下；油价最大涨幅47%，全年涨幅25%，尚属可控。正如前美联储主席耶伦在书中所说：虽然美联储的政策转换的巧妙性是毫无疑问的，但美联储也很幸运，1994年至1995年间，没有任何重大冲击来破坏它试图实现的经济软着陆。形似而已，本轮美国要实现激进紧缩下的“经济软着陆”的难度很大。如图4所示，本轮美联储加息已经失去了“先手优势”，产出缺口转正意味着美联储加息是滞后的，在这种条件下紧缩带来的金融条件收紧将对经济动能产生明显的副作用（图4和5），而这种迹象在美国PMI的数据上已有体现（图6和7）除此之外，外部环境上中欧经济尚未企稳，疫情和地缘政治冲击不断，无疑将使得美联储调控经济和通胀的难度大大上升。展望未来，美联储可能不得不在比计划更早转向宽松，和用衰退治理通胀之间做出权衡。这也将考验白宫是否有勇气用一场经济衰退来迎接2024年的总统大选。谜题二：“美元大贬值”1994年美联储激进加息下美元指数为何持续贬值？这可能是当年美国乃至全球核心资产表现中最大的谜题。无论从货币政策，利差还是资金流动等常见角度都无法解释1994年美元的弱势。1994年2月美联储开启加息（直至1995年2月），同期德国和日本都处于降息周期中，在这样的背景下，美国和其他主要发达经济（以德日英为代表）之间的长短端利差震荡走阔，与美元指数的相关性明显下降，甚至出现一定的负相关。跨境资金流动上，除年初外，1994年外国投资在持续增配美国资产（尤其是美债），美国投资者则在持续减持海外资产，由此导致的资金净流入同样不构成美元贬值的基础（图8至11）。我们发现以上三个方面其实本质上都是从资本套利、资金流动的角度去判断汇率，即资金倾向于流向高息资产，推升相关货币的汇率。但是除此之外，美元作为全球最重要的储备货币，在全球经济和金融体系中扮演者重要的中介角色，它的特殊性在于美元汇率还是全球经济和贸易的温度计，即全球经济复苏和贸易扩张往往对应着美元贬值。1994年以德国和日本代表的全球共振复苏是美元走弱的重要驱动力。20世纪80年代末至90年代初德、日的加息周期导致欧洲货币危机（例如1992年索罗斯突袭英镑）和日本资产泡沫的破裂，1993年德国和日本双双跌入负增长。不过，1994年全球经济和贸易触底明显反弹，一方面德日经济共振复苏托底全球经济；另一方面，1994年全球多边贸易协定达成重要协议，1995年1月世界贸易组织组织正式成立，全球化加速下全球贸易大幅扩张（图12）。这一模式在历史上并不少见，即使美联储处于紧缩周期中，全球经济复苏和贸易扩张也会导致美元表现偏弱，例如2013年和2017年（图13）。进入21世纪，随着中国纳入全球贸易体系，中国逐步取代德日成为全球经济的（非美）发动机，中国经济成为美元指数走势的前瞻性指标。如图12所示，虽然人民币并不在美元指数的货币篮子中，中国对美元的影响主要通过影响全球非美经济体增长的途径：中国经济复苏——拉动全球经济复苏（我们以德国和日本为代表）——美元指数走弱（图14和15）。上述逻辑和渠道的传导存在两个重要的条件：一是中国经济的内生复苏企稳，二是中国经济复苏能够有效向全球传导。而这两点在2022年都面临一定的约束。以史为鉴，无论从政策、利差还是从全球经济复苏的逻辑看，2022年美元指数不会走1994年的老路，第二季度仍将保持相对强势。从政策和利差来看美联储已经进入加速加息的周期，而受俄乌冲突的影响，欧央行仍保持谨慎，日本央行则继续坚持控制长端国债收益率的政策，政策分化下美国与欧日的名义和实际利差都在走阔。中国经济不稳，俄乌冲突拉锯是全球复苏-美元转弱逻辑的核心赌点。2022年以来国内稳增长的发力仍不足以对冲地产的疲软，地产政策拐点向地产企稳的传导仍需时间，叠加新一轮疫情爆发的影响，中国经济在第二季度将二次触底。俄乌冲突拉锯和持续发酵带来的大宗商品产冲击、金融市场动荡以及地缘政治紧张都将成为全球经济共振复苏的重要阻碍。我们认为2022年第二季度美元指数将阶段性站上100。除了以上利多美元的因素外，第二季度美联储缩表的预期和落地会给美元指数火上浇油，美元指数将阶段性站上100。不过我们预计2022年第二季度末以及下半年，随着中国经济出现更多积极信号，以及俄乌冲突的负面影响边际减弱，美元指数将出现回落。谜团三：“加息债不跌”起跑阶段预期不足，加息之后预期过度。1994年格林斯潘治下的美联储在决策和市场沟通方面的透明度不足，远不及伯南克、耶伦等继任者。这导致的一个结果是在加息开始前，市场预期明显不足，而美联储连续加息之后市场预期出现“矫枉过正”，5月议息会议前市场已经预期年内加息超过170bp，而截至1994年9月，美联储实际加息175bp。这使得货币市场和债券市场在5月至9月之间停滞不前（图16）。2022年市场抢跑明显，1994年重演的概率不小。与1994年不同的是当前美联储的沟通透明度已经极大改善，而这导致市场预期的抢跑十分明显，美联储3月才加息25bp，市场已经定价年内加息接近250bp，过于激进的市场预期直接导致美债收益率出现了长短端倒挂。这明显是不可持续的（图17）。缩表冲击后，美债收益率将阶段性见顶。除了加息外，2022年美债上涨的燃料还有缩表，而4月初以来10年期美债的继续上涨，正是对激进缩表的定价——5月开启，每月可能缩表950亿美元，缩表节奏比上一轮更快。缩表落定之后，10年期美债收益率继续上涨的动力可能不足，将陷入1994年年中相仿的震荡行情。风险提示：全球疫情再次超市场预期大爆发，美国经济遭受重创，美联储被迫暂缓降息甚至重回宽松。俄乌冲突出现重大进展，欧美解除对于俄罗斯的制裁。俄乌冲突急剧升级，油价继续大涨，导致美债收益率和美元超市场预期上升。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZNmain":0.9,"AUDmain":0.9,"GBPmain":0.9,"JPYmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"FXF":0.6,"FXA":0.6,"FXY":0.6,"MAUDmain":0.6,"TNmain":0.9,"EURmain":0.9,"FXC":0.6,"UBmain":0.9,"MGBPmain":0.6,"ZTmain":0.9,"EUO":0.6,"FXB":0.6,"FXE":0.6,"CHFmain":0.9,"YCS":0.6,"NZDmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"MEURmain":0.6,"CADmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9010776576,"gmtCreate":1648480158572,"gmtModify":1676534343298,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575347610709013","idStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9010776576","repostId":"1121685913","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121685913","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1648479607,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1121685913?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-28 23:00","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"JD Health: Board of Directors Approves Repurchase of Up to HK$3 Billion of Shares in the Next 24 Months","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121685913","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"京东健康2021年营收为306.8亿元，较上年同期的193.83亿元增长58.3%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">JD Health</a>: On 28 March 2022, it is hereby announced that the Board has approved the plan to repurchase up to HK$3 billion worth of the Company's shares in the open market during the next 24-month period.</p><p>JD Health today released its 2021 full-year results announcement. According to the financial report, JD Health's revenue in 2021 was 30.68 billion yuan, an increase of 58.3% from 19.383 billion yuan in the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07364f09af824d13a72892251991f76c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>JD Health's gross profit in 2021 was 7.197 billion yuan, an increase of 46.4% from 4.917 billion yuan in the same period of last year; The annual loss was RMB1.073 billion, compared with the annual loss of RMB17.235 billion in the same period last year; Net profit after non-profit deduction was 1.4 billion yuan, an increase of 91.5% from 732 million yuan in the same period of last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/686d69d960a74253b89052c2c73d44c5\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"1675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As of December 31, 2021, JD Health used<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02618\">JD Logistics</a>There are 19 drug warehouses and more than 400 non-drug warehouses nationwide, and 80% of self-operated drug orders are delivered the next day;</p><p>At the same time, JD.COM Pharmacy's \"self-operated drug cold chain\" has covered more than 200 cities across the country, effectively realizing the expansion of cold chain drug types and the improvement of contract performance capabilities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16c1629716124f2fab2613ce8b44afc3\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"788\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 2021, JD Health and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NZT.UK\">Excellent-time ratio</a>China,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0O59.UK\">Sanofi</a>China, Guilong Pharmaceutical,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVS\">Novartis</a>Pharmaceuticals,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GILD\">Gilead Sciences</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGNE\">BeiGene</a>And other pharmaceutical companies have further deepened cooperation, and new special drugs of many pharmaceutical companies have been launched online in JD Pharmacy, and a number of digital marketing projects have been explored in cooperation.</p><p>During the Reporting Period, the online platform of JD Health had more than 18,000 third-party merchants, further improving the category richness and supply capacity of pharmaceutical and health products. The omni-channel service \"JD.COM Drug Express\" has joined hands with about 50,000 pharmacy stores to provide users with full-time drug delivery service in more than 300 cities across the country through various performance methods such as merchant self-delivery, platform delivery and same-city delivery.</p><p>During the Reporting Period, JD Health successively established 9 specialty centers, including Infection and Liver Disease Center, Brain Nutrition Center and Skin Repair Center, bringing the total number of specialty centers to 27; JD.COM Health Internet Hospital has settled in more than 45,000 doctors with deputy chief physician or above titles;</p><p>During the Reporting Period, JD Health's strategic service product \"JD Family Doctor\" comprehensively integrated medical service resources and supply chain capabilities, and has become an important starting point for JD Health's medical services and a new service entrance for family health management. Among them, JD.COM Family Doctor has newly launched the \"telephone family doctor\" service and the audio and video consultation function that supports multiple parties online at the same time, and has brought medical resources and service capabilities to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Hardware, grassroots community and more scenario output.</p><p>During the reporting period, JD Health also cooperated with Novo Health,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTH\">Ubiozone</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300676\">BGI</a>And so on, to create a one-stop critical disease early screening service ecosystem including self-inspection products, report interpretation, outpatient appointment, rehabilitation management, etc.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d15a429c5314c58ac7c0a334f43c5c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As of December 31, 2021, JD Health held cash and cash equivalents of RMB17.25 billion.</p><p>Jin Enlin, CEO of JD Health, said: \"In the past year, JD Health has followed relevant policy guidelines, adhered to long-term value, continuously improved and opened its ecological capability of 'retail pharmacy + medical and health services', and helped the transformation and upgrading of entities and formats in the industrial chain, so that high-quality medical and health products and services can benefit a wider range of groups; By providing professional supply chain and technical solutions, it also serves government departments and medical institutions in more and more regions, and helps the practice of Healthy China. \"</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JD Health: Board of Directors Approves Repurchase of Up to HK$3 Billion of Shares in the Next 24 Months</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJD Health: Board of Directors Approves Repurchase of Up to HK$3 Billion of Shares in the Next 24 Months\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-28 23:00</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">JD Health</a>: On 28 March 2022, it is hereby announced that the Board has approved the plan to repurchase up to HK$3 billion worth of the Company's shares in the open market during the next 24-month period.</p><p>JD Health today released its 2021 full-year results announcement. According to the financial report, JD Health's revenue in 2021 was 30.68 billion yuan, an increase of 58.3% from 19.383 billion yuan in the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07364f09af824d13a72892251991f76c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>JD Health's gross profit in 2021 was 7.197 billion yuan, an increase of 46.4% from 4.917 billion yuan in the same period of last year; The annual loss was RMB1.073 billion, compared with the annual loss of RMB17.235 billion in the same period last year; Net profit after non-profit deduction was 1.4 billion yuan, an increase of 91.5% from 732 million yuan in the same period of last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/686d69d960a74253b89052c2c73d44c5\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"1675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As of December 31, 2021, JD Health used<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02618\">JD Logistics</a>There are 19 drug warehouses and more than 400 non-drug warehouses nationwide, and 80% of self-operated drug orders are delivered the next day;</p><p>At the same time, JD.COM Pharmacy's \"self-operated drug cold chain\" has covered more than 200 cities across the country, effectively realizing the expansion of cold chain drug types and the improvement of contract performance capabilities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16c1629716124f2fab2613ce8b44afc3\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"788\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 2021, JD Health and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NZT.UK\">Excellent-time ratio</a>China,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0O59.UK\">Sanofi</a>China, Guilong Pharmaceutical,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVS\">Novartis</a>Pharmaceuticals,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GILD\">Gilead Sciences</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGNE\">BeiGene</a>And other pharmaceutical companies have further deepened cooperation, and new special drugs of many pharmaceutical companies have been launched online in JD Pharmacy, and a number of digital marketing projects have been explored in cooperation.</p><p>During the Reporting Period, the online platform of JD Health had more than 18,000 third-party merchants, further improving the category richness and supply capacity of pharmaceutical and health products. The omni-channel service \"JD.COM Drug Express\" has joined hands with about 50,000 pharmacy stores to provide users with full-time drug delivery service in more than 300 cities across the country through various performance methods such as merchant self-delivery, platform delivery and same-city delivery.</p><p>During the Reporting Period, JD Health successively established 9 specialty centers, including Infection and Liver Disease Center, Brain Nutrition Center and Skin Repair Center, bringing the total number of specialty centers to 27; JD.COM Health Internet Hospital has settled in more than 45,000 doctors with deputy chief physician or above titles;</p><p>During the Reporting Period, JD Health's strategic service product \"JD Family Doctor\" comprehensively integrated medical service resources and supply chain capabilities, and has become an important starting point for JD Health's medical services and a new service entrance for family health management. Among them, JD.COM Family Doctor has newly launched the \"telephone family doctor\" service and the audio and video consultation function that supports multiple parties online at the same time, and has brought medical resources and service capabilities to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Hardware, grassroots community and more scenario output.</p><p>During the reporting period, JD Health also cooperated with Novo Health,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTH\">Ubiozone</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300676\">BGI</a>And so on, to create a one-stop critical disease early screening service ecosystem including self-inspection products, report interpretation, outpatient appointment, rehabilitation management, etc.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d15a429c5314c58ac7c0a334f43c5c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As of December 31, 2021, JD Health held cash and cash equivalents of RMB17.25 billion.</p><p>Jin Enlin, CEO of JD Health, said: \"In the past year, JD Health has followed relevant policy guidelines, adhered to long-term value, continuously improved and opened its ecological capability of 'retail pharmacy + medical and health services', and helped the transformation and upgrading of entities and formats in the industrial chain, so that high-quality medical and health products and services can benefit a wider range of groups; By providing professional supply chain and technical solutions, it also serves government departments and medical institutions in more and more regions, and helps the practice of Healthy China. \"</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0ede65b6680c765e9fea3680757fcfd","relate_stocks":{"06618":"京东健康"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121685913","content_text":"京东健康：于2022年3月28日谨此宣布，董事会已批准于未来24个月期间，在公开市场回购最多价值30亿港元之本公司股份的计划。京东健康今日发布2021年全年业绩公告。财报显示，京东健康2021年营收为306.8亿元，较上年同期的193.83亿元增长58.3%。京东健康2021年毛利71.97亿元，较上年同期的49.17亿元增长46.4%；年度亏损为10.73亿元，上年同期的年度亏损为172.35亿元；扣非后净利为14亿元，较上年同期的7.32亿元增长91.5%。截至2021年12月31日，京东健康使用了京东物流全国范围内的19个药品仓库和超过400个非药品仓库，80%的自营药品订单实现次日达；同时，京东大药房“自营药品冷链”已经覆盖全国超过200个城市，有效实现冷链药品种类的扩充和履约能力的提升。2021年，京东健康与优时比中国、赛诺菲中国、桂龙药业、诺华制药、吉利德科学、百济神州等药企进一步深化合作，多家药企的新特药在京东大药房线上首发，并合作探索了多项数字化营销项目。报告期内，京东健康在线平台拥有超过1.8万第三方商家，进一步提高了医药及健康产品的品类丰富度和供给能力。全渠道服务“京东药急送”通过商家自配送、平台配送、同城送等多种履约方式，已携手约5万家药房门店，在全国超过300个城市为用户提供全时段送药上门服务。报告期内，京东健康相继成立感染及肝病中心、脑营养中心、皮肤修复中心等9个专科中心，专科中心总数达到27个；京东健康互联网医院入驻超4.5万位副主任医师及以上职称的医生；报告期内，京东健康的战略级服务产品“京东家医”全面整合了医疗服务资源和供应链能力，已成为京东健康医疗服务的重要抓手和家庭健康管理的服务新入口。其中，京东家医全新上线了“电话家医”服务和支持多方同时在线的音视频问诊功能，并将医疗资源和服务能力向智能硬件、基层社区等更多场景输出。报告期内，京东健康还与诺辉健康、泛生子、华大基因等合作，打造包含自检产品、报告解读、门诊预约、康复管理等在内的一站式重疾早筛服务生态。截至2021年12月31日，京东健康持有现金及现金等价物为172.5亿元。京东健康CEO金恩林表示：“过去一年，京东健康紧随相关政策指引，坚持长期价值，不断提升并开放自身‘零售药房+医疗健康服务’的生态能力，帮助产业链内实体企业和业态转型升级，让优质的医疗健康产品和服务能够惠及更广泛群体；还通过提供专业化的供应链与技术解决方案，服务于越来越多区域的政府部门和医疗机构，助力健康中国落地实践。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"06618":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1343,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9032764902,"gmtCreate":1647445735408,"gmtModify":1676534231285,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575347610709013","idStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"o","listText":"o","text":"o","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9032764902","repostId":"1111531680","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111531680","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1647444203,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1111531680?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-16 23:23","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"What does the \"policy bottom\" in the history of A shares look like?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111531680","media":"资事堂","summary":"3月16日，可能是公募基金在2022年最“亢奋”的一天。截至当日晚间21点，包括睿远、广发、嘉实、华夏、招商、鹏华、交银施罗德、工银瑞信、景顺长城、东方红资管、平安、永赢、华泰柏瑞、浦银安盛、前海开源","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>March 16th may be the most \"exciting\" day for Public Offering of Fund in 2022.</p><p>As of 21: 00 in the evening of the same day, dozens of fund companies including Ruiyuan, GF, Harvest, Huaxia, China Merchants, Penghua, Bank of Communications Schroders, ICBC Credit Suisse, Invesco Great Wall, Dongfanghong Asset Management, Ping An, Yongying, Huatai Bairui, Puyin AXA, Qianhai Kaiyuan, Agricultural Bank of China Huili, Minsheng Canadian Bank, Xingye, Zhonggeng, etc. have successively released market analysis or strategic views.</p><p>Almost all public offering views attach great importance to the minutes of the special meeting of the Financial Committee released at noon on March 16th, and all of them expressed direct confidence in the future policy orientation and market outlook performance of the market.</p><p>Such a situation is really rare.</p><p><b>01. Policy orientation attracts the most attention of institutions</b></p><p>From the point of view of public offerings, the confidence of \"policy side\" has attracted special attention.</p><p>For example, Jing Lei, general manager of Harvest Fund, believed in an interview with some media that the special meeting of the Financial Committee was held not only to boost market confidence, but also to show the determination to maintain the stability of China's financial market. He thinks,<b>The foundation for the smooth operation of the capital market exists. I have strong confidence in this year's A shares.</b></p><p>According to the analysis of ICBC Credit Suisse Fund, the special meeting of the Financial Committee gave a positive response to the issues of most concern in the current market, expressed its determination to stabilize economic growth, and clarified the development ideas of real estate, platform economy, China concept stocks and other issues.<b>It has strengthened the willingness of the policy to care for the market, which has a greater effect on boosting market confidence in the short term.</b>Follow-up will pay attention to the introduction and implementation of policies.</p><p><b>02. Policies have been \"effective\" many times in history</b></p><p>So historically, when the market is obviously unstable, has there been a case where the policy clearly stated its position, and the main body of the market institutions enhanced its confidence, thus driving the performance of the market outlook?</p><p>The answer is, there has been, and more than once.</p><p>In the early A-share market, there was even a well-known word-policy bottom.</p><p>The latest case of policy incentives to stabilize the market was the resumption of market after the Spring Festival in 2020. At that time, most domestic institutions published positive articles on the market outlook at the same time period, believing that the value of A shares was evident and would not be disturbed by the epidemic.</p><p>In hindsight, the opening of the first day of the resumption of market is the low point area in recent years, and the lowest point of many blue chip stocks in recent years is February 3, 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b794364c741b7ecd089e772bced80888\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition, the famous \"5.19\", \"5.12\" and other big markets in the history of A shares have strong policy releases and clear atmosphere guidance in the early stage of launch.</p><p><b>03. The earliest date can be traced back to 1992</b></p><p>Looking back to the history of A-shares, the cycle of policy introduction and then boost the start of the market is usually a cycle of 3~6 years. Moreover, it is often accompanied by market downturn or market function failure.</p><p><b>That is to say, the \"market bottom\" and \"valuation bottom\" are often interlaced with the \"policy bottom\", forming a strong \"resonance\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dd91ba3ccc74f312c5e19ffa9f9f868\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The more well-known \"policy bottoms\" in history include (see above):</p><p>In 1992, the Shanghai stock market fully liberalized the stock price control, which triggered the strong performance of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, with the highest increase of the Shanghai Composite Index exceeding 15 times;</p><p>In 1994, the Four No Policies and Three Major Policies were issued successively, causing the \"333\" market</p><p>In 1996, the bank's value-preserving savings were suspended, and the instructions of \"steady development and appropriate acceleration\" were issued by relevant parties, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets strengthened;</p><p>In 1999, the \"Request for Instructions on Several Policies to Promote the Development of Securities Market\" was approved by relevant parties, and the \"5.19\" market of A shares broke out;</p><p>In 2005, the share trading reform was launched, and A-shares launched the largest round of market prices in history, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 6,000 points for the only time;</p><p>At the end of 2008, the 4 trillion yuan policy was released, and A shares successfully explored the low and emerged from the strong market;</p><p>In 2014, \"Several Opinions on Further Promoting the Healthy Development of Capital Market\" (Nine Articles of New China) was issued, and the market of growth stocks started.</p><p>In 2018, high-level statements, superimposed a number of policy releases, and A-shares launched a blue-chip bull market.</p><p><b>04. The cycle performance has been relatively flat in recent years</b></p><p>Judging from the early history of A-shares, the policy cycle and the market cycle are closely aligned and very regular, and they also form the most classic and rhythmic cycle of 3~6 years in the A-share market.</p><p>In the early days, the market cycle of A-share stock market was often when the market confidence was lost.<b>Marked by a major shift in policy</b>Triggered capital inflow, which in turn made the stock market quickly transact from extremely low valuation and extremely deserted transactions<b>Rising from the ground</b>, triggering a rising market.</p><p><b>However, after entering the 21st century, the cyclical law and inertia of the A-share market itself have become increasingly obvious, and the turning and starting of the market are not as violent as before.</b></p><p>Even with the strong policy incentives at the end of 2008, the market rose sharply after a certain period of shock, and after confirming that the fundamentals had changed dramatically.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1568174316590","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What does the \"policy bottom\" in the history of A shares look like?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat does the \"policy bottom\" in the history of A shares look like?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">资事堂</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-16 23:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>March 16th may be the most \"exciting\" day for Public Offering of Fund in 2022.</p><p>As of 21: 00 in the evening of the same day, dozens of fund companies including Ruiyuan, GF, Harvest, Huaxia, China Merchants, Penghua, Bank of Communications Schroders, ICBC Credit Suisse, Invesco Great Wall, Dongfanghong Asset Management, Ping An, Yongying, Huatai Bairui, Puyin AXA, Qianhai Kaiyuan, Agricultural Bank of China Huili, Minsheng Canadian Bank, Xingye, Zhonggeng, etc. have successively released market analysis or strategic views.</p><p>Almost all public offering views attach great importance to the minutes of the special meeting of the Financial Committee released at noon on March 16th, and all of them expressed direct confidence in the future policy orientation and market outlook performance of the market.</p><p>Such a situation is really rare.</p><p><b>01. Policy orientation attracts the most attention of institutions</b></p><p>From the point of view of public offerings, the confidence of \"policy side\" has attracted special attention.</p><p>For example, Jing Lei, general manager of Harvest Fund, believed in an interview with some media that the special meeting of the Financial Committee was held not only to boost market confidence, but also to show the determination to maintain the stability of China's financial market. He thinks,<b>The foundation for the smooth operation of the capital market exists. I have strong confidence in this year's A shares.</b></p><p>According to the analysis of ICBC Credit Suisse Fund, the special meeting of the Financial Committee gave a positive response to the issues of most concern in the current market, expressed its determination to stabilize economic growth, and clarified the development ideas of real estate, platform economy, China concept stocks and other issues.<b>It has strengthened the willingness of the policy to care for the market, which has a greater effect on boosting market confidence in the short term.</b>Follow-up will pay attention to the introduction and implementation of policies.</p><p><b>02. Policies have been \"effective\" many times in history</b></p><p>So historically, when the market is obviously unstable, has there been a case where the policy clearly stated its position, and the main body of the market institutions enhanced its confidence, thus driving the performance of the market outlook?</p><p>The answer is, there has been, and more than once.</p><p>In the early A-share market, there was even a well-known word-policy bottom.</p><p>The latest case of policy incentives to stabilize the market was the resumption of market after the Spring Festival in 2020. At that time, most domestic institutions published positive articles on the market outlook at the same time period, believing that the value of A shares was evident and would not be disturbed by the epidemic.</p><p>In hindsight, the opening of the first day of the resumption of market is the low point area in recent years, and the lowest point of many blue chip stocks in recent years is February 3, 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b794364c741b7ecd089e772bced80888\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition, the famous \"5.19\", \"5.12\" and other big markets in the history of A shares have strong policy releases and clear atmosphere guidance in the early stage of launch.</p><p><b>03. The earliest date can be traced back to 1992</b></p><p>Looking back to the history of A-shares, the cycle of policy introduction and then boost the start of the market is usually a cycle of 3~6 years. Moreover, it is often accompanied by market downturn or market function failure.</p><p><b>That is to say, the \"market bottom\" and \"valuation bottom\" are often interlaced with the \"policy bottom\", forming a strong \"resonance\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dd91ba3ccc74f312c5e19ffa9f9f868\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The more well-known \"policy bottoms\" in history include (see above):</p><p>In 1992, the Shanghai stock market fully liberalized the stock price control, which triggered the strong performance of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, with the highest increase of the Shanghai Composite Index exceeding 15 times;</p><p>In 1994, the Four No Policies and Three Major Policies were issued successively, causing the \"333\" market</p><p>In 1996, the bank's value-preserving savings were suspended, and the instructions of \"steady development and appropriate acceleration\" were issued by relevant parties, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets strengthened;</p><p>In 1999, the \"Request for Instructions on Several Policies to Promote the Development of Securities Market\" was approved by relevant parties, and the \"5.19\" market of A shares broke out;</p><p>In 2005, the share trading reform was launched, and A-shares launched the largest round of market prices in history, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 6,000 points for the only time;</p><p>At the end of 2008, the 4 trillion yuan policy was released, and A shares successfully explored the low and emerged from the strong market;</p><p>In 2014, \"Several Opinions on Further Promoting the Healthy Development of Capital Market\" (Nine Articles of New China) was issued, and the market of growth stocks started.</p><p>In 2018, high-level statements, superimposed a number of policy releases, and A-shares launched a blue-chip bull market.</p><p><b>04. The cycle performance has been relatively flat in recent years</b></p><p>Judging from the early history of A-shares, the policy cycle and the market cycle are closely aligned and very regular, and they also form the most classic and rhythmic cycle of 3~6 years in the A-share market.</p><p>In the early days, the market cycle of A-share stock market was often when the market confidence was lost.<b>Marked by a major shift in policy</b>Triggered capital inflow, which in turn made the stock market quickly transact from extremely low valuation and extremely deserted transactions<b>Rising from the ground</b>, triggering a rising market.</p><p><b>However, after entering the 21st century, the cyclical law and inertia of the A-share market itself have become increasingly obvious, and the turning and starting of the market are not as violent as before.</b></p><p>Even with the strong policy incentives at the end of 2008, the market rose sharply after a certain period of shock, and after confirming that the fundamentals had changed dramatically.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/25K8O5kgBJ27BXNn9ep3zQ\">资事堂</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/25K8O5kgBJ27BXNn9ep3zQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111531680","content_text":"3月16日，可能是公募基金在2022年最“亢奋”的一天。截至当日晚间21点，包括睿远、广发、嘉实、华夏、招商、鹏华、交银施罗德、工银瑞信、景顺长城、东方红资管、平安、永赢、华泰柏瑞、浦银安盛、前海开源、农银汇理、民生加银、兴业、中庚等几十家基金公司都先后发布行情分析或策略观点。几乎所有公募观点高度重视3月16日中午发布的金融委专题会纪要，都对市场未来的政策取向和后市表现表达了而直接的信心。这样的情况着实不多见。01、政策取向最受机构关注在公募机构观点中，“政策面”的信心尤其受到关注。比如嘉实基金总经理经雷在接受一些媒体采访时认为，金融委专题会议的召开，既为了提振市场信心，也表明维护我国金融市场稳定的决心。他认为，资本市场平稳运行的基础是存在的。对于今年的A股有很强的信心。工银瑞信基金的分析认为，金融委专题会议对当前市场最为关切的问题给予了积极回应，表达了稳定经济增长的决心，明确了房地产、平台经济、中概股等问题的发展思路，强化了政策对于市场的呵护意愿，对于短期提振市场信心有较大的作用。后续会关注政策的出台和落实情况。02、历史上政策多次“显效”那么历史上，当市场出现明显不稳定状况时，由政策明确表态，市场机构主体提升信心，进而带动后市行情表现的案例有过么？答案是，有过，而且不止一次。这在早期的A股市场上，甚至有个知名词汇——政策底。最近的一次的政策激励市场企稳的案例是，是2020年春节后的复市，当时国内机构在同一时间段内多数对后市发表正面文章，认为A股价值显现，不会受疫情干扰。事后看，复市的第一天的开盘即是近年的低点区域，不少绩优股的近年最低点就是2020年2月3日。此外，A股历史上著名的“5·19”、“5·12”等大行情，在启动初期都有强力的政策发布和明确的氛围导向。03、最早可追溯至1992年追溯A股历史看，政策出台继而助推行情启动的周期通常都是3~6年一个循环。而且往往与市场低迷或市场功能失效伴生出现。也就是说，“市场底”、“估值底”往往与“政策底”交错，形成较强烈的“共振”。历史上的比较知名的“政策底”包括（见上图）：1992年，沪市全面放开股价管制，引发沪深两市强势表现，沪指最高涨幅超过15倍；1994年，四不政策、三大政策先后发布，引发“333”行情1996年，银行保值储蓄停办，有关方面“稳步发展，适当加快”批示发布，沪深两市走强；1999年，有关方面《推动证券市场发展的若干政策请示》获批，A股“5·19”行情爆发；2005年，股权分置改革启动，A股展开历史上最大一轮行情，沪指唯一一次突破6000点；2008年末，四万亿政策发布，A股探低成功，走出强势行情；2014年，《关于进一步促进资本市场健康发展的若干意见》（新国九条）发布，成长股大行情启动。2018年，高层表态，叠加多项政策发布，A股启动蓝筹股牛市。04、近年周期表现较为平缓从A股早期的历史看，政策周期和市场周期紧密贴合，非常规律，也形成了A股市场最经典、节奏感最分明的3~6年一轮的周期。早期，A股股市的行情周期往往是在市场信心丧失时，由一次政策上的重大转向为标志，引发资金流入，进而使得股市从极低估值、极冷清成交上迅速拔地而起，引发上涨行情。但进入21世纪后，A股市场自身的周期规律和惯性变得日益明显，行情的转身和启动也不如以往那么剧烈。即便是2008年末的强大政策激励，市场也是经过一定的阶段震荡后，在确认基本面发生巨大变化后，应声而大涨的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887318304,"gmtCreate":1631975192808,"gmtModify":1676530680797,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575347610709013","idStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"We&nbsp;","listText":"We&nbsp;","text":"We","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/887318304","repostId":"2168776335","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":984,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192853238,"gmtCreate":1621181470424,"gmtModify":1704353683647,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575347610709013","idStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"o","listText":"o","text":"o","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192853238","repostId":"2135598119","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":958,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382267763,"gmtCreate":1613454318652,"gmtModify":1704880635123,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575347610709013","idStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/382267763","repostId":"1146484369","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1146484369","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613452596,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146484369?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-16 13:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"TSMC Could Soon Make Apple's AR Dreams a Reality","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146484369","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The world's largest contract chipmaker might be making Apple's most advanced displays.\nApple (NASDAQ","content":"<p>The world's largest contract chipmaker might be making Apple's most advanced displays.</p>\n<p><b>Apple</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:AAPL)&nbsp;is partnering with&nbsp;<b>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:TSM)&nbsp;to produce micro OLED displays for its long-rumored augmented reality devices at a secretive facility in&nbsp;Taiwan, according to Nikkei Asia Review.</p>\n<p>That Feb. 10 announcement is surprising since TSMC mainly manufactures semiconductors on silicon wafers instead of display panels on glass substrates. However, Apple's micro OLED displays will be built directly on chip wafers to make them smaller, thinner, and more power-efficient than regular OLED screens.</p>\n<p>These new screens are reportedly less than one inch wide and would be well-suited for AR devices like headsets and glasses, which need to be lightweight and last for a long time on a single charge.</p>\n<p>Nikkei's sources claim the screens are still being tested, and they will take \"several years\" to enter mass production -- which&nbsp;supports rumors&nbsp;that Apple will be launching AR devices over the next few years. The facility is also testing out larger micro-LED screens for upcoming Apple Watches, iPads, and MacBooks.</p>\n<p><b>How will this deal help Apple?</b></p>\n<p>Apple's near-term goals are simple. It needs to keep selling more iPhones, which generated over half its revenue last year, to tether more users to its expanding ecosystem of services, which include the App Store, Apple Music, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple Pay, and other services.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, it needs to keep refreshing its iPad, Mac, Watch, and AirPods segments. But looking further ahead, Apple will eventually need to launch a completely new line of hardware devices, and AR headsets and glasses will likely represent that next big leap.</p>\n<p>That's why Apple has boosted its presence in the AR market in recent years. It launched ARKit, a software development kit for AR apps on iOS, back in 2017. It added 3D-sensing cameras to its iPhones to encourage developers to create more AR apps and patented several designs for AR glasses.</p>\n<p>It also gobbled up smaller AR and VR companies, including Metaio, Flyby Media, SensoMotoric Instruments, and Akonia Holographics, and assembled a team of industry experts to develop new products. However, Apple already reportedly scrapped several of its ambitious AR/VR projects, and it's still unclear how the tech giant plans to proceed in the slippery, nascent market.</p>\n<p>The latest rumors suggest Apple could launch an AR headset in 2022 and a pair of lightweight AR glasses in 2023. Those launch dates suggest Apple could wait for early movers like&nbsp;<b>Microsoft</b>&nbsp;and Magic Leap to expose the market's flaws before launching disruptive user-friendly products, as it previously did with MP3 players, smartphones, tablet computers, and smartwatches.</p>\n<p>If Apple's AR glasses gain mainstream momentum, it would diversify the company's hardware business away from the iPhone while locking more users into its walled garden. It could also pave the way for the eventual launch of the long-rumored \"Apple Car\" tethered to its AR services.</p>\n<p><b>How will this deal help TSMC?</b></p>\n<p>TSMC, the world's largest contract chipmaker, has produced Apple's first-party chips for years. Apple accounted for&nbsp;just over a fifth of TSMC's revenue in 2020, with most of its orders boosting the 5nm and 7nm nodes, which accounted for 41% of its top line.</p>\n<p>TSMC's top rival,<b>Samsung</b>, also&nbsp;manufactures chips for Apple. However, Samsung also produces LCD and&nbsp;OLED displays for Apple's devices. Therefore, Apple's decision to partner with TSMC to produce micro OLED screens marks a deliberate shift away from Samsung, which could also have produced micro-LED and OLED displays with its in-house chip foundry.</p>\n<p>It makes more sense for Apple to partner with TSMC, for two reasons: Samsung is still its biggest competitor in the smartphone market, and splitting its orders between two or more suppliers gives it more clout in price negotiations.</p>\n<p>Apple clearly benefits from this partnership, but it could also help TSMC reduce its dependence on the maturing smartphone market, which accounted for 48% of its revenue in 2020. As the AR market expands, other companies could also follow Apple's lead and tap TSMC to manufacture similar advanced screens for their devices -- which would open up new sources of revenue growth&nbsp;beyond semiconductors.</p>\n<p><b>The bottom line</b></p>\n<p>This deal won't move the needle for Apple or TSMC anytime soon. But it could still be a win-win deal over the long term -- Apple would reduce its dependence on Samsung and advance its AR plans, while TSMC would tighten its relationship with Apple and diversify its business away from smartphone chips.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>TSMC Could Soon Make Apple's AR Dreams a Reality</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTSMC Could Soon Make Apple's AR Dreams a Reality\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-16 13:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/02/15/tsmc-could-soon-make-apple-ar-dreams-a-reality/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The world's largest contract chipmaker might be making Apple's most advanced displays.\nApple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is partnering with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) to produce micro OLED ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/02/15/tsmc-could-soon-make-apple-ar-dreams-a-reality/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/02/15/tsmc-could-soon-make-apple-ar-dreams-a-reality/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146484369","content_text":"The world's largest contract chipmaker might be making Apple's most advanced displays.\nApple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is partnering with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) to produce micro OLED displays for its long-rumored augmented reality devices at a secretive facility in Taiwan, according to Nikkei Asia Review.\nThat Feb. 10 announcement is surprising since TSMC mainly manufactures semiconductors on silicon wafers instead of display panels on glass substrates. However, Apple's micro OLED displays will be built directly on chip wafers to make them smaller, thinner, and more power-efficient than regular OLED screens.\nThese new screens are reportedly less than one inch wide and would be well-suited for AR devices like headsets and glasses, which need to be lightweight and last for a long time on a single charge.\nNikkei's sources claim the screens are still being tested, and they will take \"several years\" to enter mass production -- which supports rumors that Apple will be launching AR devices over the next few years. The facility is also testing out larger micro-LED screens for upcoming Apple Watches, iPads, and MacBooks.\nHow will this deal help Apple?\nApple's near-term goals are simple. It needs to keep selling more iPhones, which generated over half its revenue last year, to tether more users to its expanding ecosystem of services, which include the App Store, Apple Music, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple Pay, and other services.\nMeanwhile, it needs to keep refreshing its iPad, Mac, Watch, and AirPods segments. But looking further ahead, Apple will eventually need to launch a completely new line of hardware devices, and AR headsets and glasses will likely represent that next big leap.\nThat's why Apple has boosted its presence in the AR market in recent years. It launched ARKit, a software development kit for AR apps on iOS, back in 2017. It added 3D-sensing cameras to its iPhones to encourage developers to create more AR apps and patented several designs for AR glasses.\nIt also gobbled up smaller AR and VR companies, including Metaio, Flyby Media, SensoMotoric Instruments, and Akonia Holographics, and assembled a team of industry experts to develop new products. However, Apple already reportedly scrapped several of its ambitious AR/VR projects, and it's still unclear how the tech giant plans to proceed in the slippery, nascent market.\nThe latest rumors suggest Apple could launch an AR headset in 2022 and a pair of lightweight AR glasses in 2023. Those launch dates suggest Apple could wait for early movers like Microsoft and Magic Leap to expose the market's flaws before launching disruptive user-friendly products, as it previously did with MP3 players, smartphones, tablet computers, and smartwatches.\nIf Apple's AR glasses gain mainstream momentum, it would diversify the company's hardware business away from the iPhone while locking more users into its walled garden. It could also pave the way for the eventual launch of the long-rumored \"Apple Car\" tethered to its AR services.\nHow will this deal help TSMC?\nTSMC, the world's largest contract chipmaker, has produced Apple's first-party chips for years. Apple accounted for just over a fifth of TSMC's revenue in 2020, with most of its orders boosting the 5nm and 7nm nodes, which accounted for 41% of its top line.\nTSMC's top rival,Samsung, also manufactures chips for Apple. However, Samsung also produces LCD and OLED displays for Apple's devices. Therefore, Apple's decision to partner with TSMC to produce micro OLED screens marks a deliberate shift away from Samsung, which could also have produced micro-LED and OLED displays with its in-house chip foundry.\nIt makes more sense for Apple to partner with TSMC, for two reasons: Samsung is still its biggest competitor in the smartphone market, and splitting its orders between two or more suppliers gives it more clout in price negotiations.\nApple clearly benefits from this partnership, but it could also help TSMC reduce its dependence on the maturing smartphone market, which accounted for 48% of its revenue in 2020. As the AR market expands, other companies could also follow Apple's lead and tap TSMC to manufacture similar advanced screens for their devices -- which would open up new sources of revenue growth beyond semiconductors.\nThe bottom line\nThis deal won't move the needle for Apple or TSMC anytime soon. But it could still be a win-win deal over the long term -- Apple would reduce its dependence on Samsung and advance its AR plans, while TSMC would tighten its relationship with Apple and diversify its business away from smartphone chips.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"TSM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":905,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059748216,"gmtCreate":1654441130835,"gmtModify":1676535448168,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575347610709013","idStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"R","listText":"R","text":"R","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059748216","repostId":"1186538622","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1293,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}