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2021-02-13

$Petco Health and Wellness Company, Inc.(WOOF)$?

2021-02-14

……

Reminder: List of Main Market Closure Arrangements during the Spring Festival Holiday

2021-12-27

$Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯

2021-02-14

$Property Solutions Acquisition Corp(PSAC)$??

2021-05-08

W9h, what happened, why my stock never been like that

2021-03-17

???????????

2021-02-28

lj，??????????

2021-02-22

…………………

2021-02-18

IQIY IQIY

Total Subscription Membership Drops, iQiyi Drops More Than 9% After Hours

2021-01-30

?

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day.Goalke","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e8c9b6ab16214df413c77708cf5957bf","width":"404","height":"707"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6f0ddb54cc9e55b9b9b59a0c9908bfb5","width":"358","height":"471"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d9cc4adf57a9972e62e94d321ecc6734","width":"402","height":"712"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963969638","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2967,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9986935629,"gmtCreate":1666874816462,"gmtModify":1676537820868,"author":{"id":"3574563059595551","authorId":"3574563059595551","name":"希菟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c99310785abc9b8abf540f583e93c89","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574563059595551","authorIdStr":"3574563059595551"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[愤怒]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[愤怒]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[愤怒] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986935629","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2030,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9913128105,"gmtCreate":1663941280607,"gmtModify":1676537367377,"author":{"id":"3574563059595551","authorId":"3574563059595551","name":"希菟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c99310785abc9b8abf540f583e93c89","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574563059595551","authorIdStr":"3574563059595551"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$PayPal(PYPL)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9913128105","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2622,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9009820501,"gmtCreate":1640616237529,"gmtModify":1676533529385,"author":{"id":"3574563059595551","authorId":"3574563059595551","name":"希菟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c99310785abc9b8abf540f583e93c89","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574563059595551","authorIdStr":"3574563059595551"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/LCID\">$Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$</a>🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/LCID\">$Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$</a>🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯","text":"$Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯","images":[{"img":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/da2035e99850a70dd61decf00eb63702","width":"1125","height":"2524"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9009820501","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837180616,"gmtCreate":1629864124335,"gmtModify":1676530155984,"author":{"id":"3574563059595551","authorId":"3574563059595551","name":"希菟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c99310785abc9b8abf540f583e93c89","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574563059595551","authorIdStr":"3574563059595551"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/837180616","repostId":"1184955585","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1184955585","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630118344,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1184955585?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-28 10:39","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Why does TSMC become the king of Asian stocks?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184955585","media":"远川科技评论","summary":"在2020年初，全球市值最大的十家企业中，美国独占7席，而中国的腾讯和阿里也榜上有名，成为亚洲唯二突入榜单的企业。\n\n在当时看来，腾讯和阿里进入榜单是一个再自然不过的结果，前十大企业中6个是互联网、2","content":"<p>At the beginning of 2020, the United States held seven of the world's ten largest companies by market capitalization, while China's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>And Ali are also on the list, becoming the only two companies in Asia to break into the list.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2b6b856b3f2f1196c329b1155f9fc5f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At that time, it was a natural result that Tencent and Ali entered the list. Six of the top ten enterprises were Internet, two finance and one resource, and the only hardware enterprise<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Production is not under their own control. At that time, if a family<b>Heavy on assets, heavy on manufacturing, no oil at home</b>Enterprises can still enter the top ten, which is tantamount to idiotic dreams.</p><p>But what I didn't expect was that on August 18, 2021, just over a year later,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>With a market value of $538 billion, it successfully surpassed Tencent and became the highest market value company in Asia.</p><p>Supporting the market value of TSMC's Asian stock king is TSMC's revenue of 13.29 billion US dollars in the second quarter, earning 147 million US dollars a day.</p><p>At the same time, the global shortage of chips has made TSMC's orders hard currency: not long ago, after Apple placed an order of 100 million chips at one time, TSMC's raw material suppliers directly broke the news, and TSMC's orders have been fully loaded until 2024.</p><p><b>Behind TSMC's replacement of Tencent as the Asian stock king, it is not only the change of market value of the two companies, but also the counterattack of hard technology manufacturing on the Internet.</b></p><p>So how did TSMC cultivate its current position as the king of stocks in an electronic industry with heavy assets, high labor costs and extremely strong customers?</p><p>The answer lies in the three historical opportunities of TSMC's rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8831ed0813cfe4215d1a7249b8194a1a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In December 1989, TSMC, which was just two years old, ushered in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>The head Li Jianxi personally poached the wall.</p><p>This time, Li Jianxi took a fancy to not a process leader or a technical bull, but directly locked his eyes on Zhang Zhongmou, the 58-year-old founder of TSMC.</p><p>The reason why Li Jianxi is so confident has a lot to do with the development background of the industry at that time: Samsung at that time was already the overlord of many industries, a super chaebol that controlled the lifeblood of South Korea;<b>However, the status of chip foundry in the industry at that time was actually similar to that of Foxconn, another foundry king in Taiwan Province, China today: the technical content is not high, and there are many competitors, all of which are located at the bottom of the \"smile curve\" of value distribution in the manufacturing industry chain</b>Do the most tiring work and earn the least money.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9789042af668ea4b67309f48e5f3e543\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>What's more,<b>At that time, chip manufacturing was still in the sub-micron stage, and the IDM mode of chip enterprises' own design, manufacture, and sealing and testing was the mainstream of the industry.</b>The top ten semiconductor companies in the world that year, NEC, Toshiba, Hitachi, Motorola,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>Fujitsu, Mitsubishi,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PC\">Panasonic</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PHG\">Philips</a>All are typical semiconductor IDM giants.</p><p>So, why do IDMs with their own factories look for TSMC, which is a fledgling company and whose craft is even inferior to their own, to OEM chips?</p><p>This is a very real problem faced by Zhang Zhongmou, an elderly entrepreneur, after rejecting Li Jianxi's olive branch.</p><p>Soon, however, TSMC ushered in its first era opportunity: the rise of PC.</p><p>Around 1988, under the leadership of Intel, the global electronic industry entered the PC era from the traditional mainframe era. While<b>The focus of the global semiconductor industry has gradually begun to move from traditional DRAM storage to digital chips represented by CPU and GPU.</b></p><p>traditional<b>DRAM memory chips are light in design and heavy in manufacturing, so IDM mode leads the development of the industry; For digital chips, chip manufacturing is certainly the top priority, but as the number of transistors in the chip reaches a million, the chip design investment required behind it is becoming more and more arduous. In the case of limited energy, it has become an imminent trend to separate design from manufacturing.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/673230fbc935dd61c98bcb0b5390e825\" tg-width=\"767\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Relying on the personal friendship between Intel President Grove and Zhang Zhongmou, Intel directly sent engineers to TSMC, and pointed out at least 200 process improvement processes for TSMC, which had only more than 200 manufacturing processes at that time.</p><p>You know, Intel at that time was synonymous with top chip manufacturing. The 80486 chip under development is not only the first in the world to use the 1-micron manufacturing process, but also the first high-end chip maker to break through 1 million transistor integration in one chip and reach 1.2 million pioneers.</p><p>Being coached one-on-one by Intel, TSMC won the first technical ticket to the top chip foundry in one fell swoop.</p><p>Shortly after getting this ticket, in 1995, TSMC agreed with the two-year-old<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>It hit it off and picked up another important boat ticket for the PC era.</p><p>In the next decade, TSMC has established a<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>Cooperation of chip design enterprises such as Meiman Electronics; On the other hand, through the research and development of copper process technology and wet lithography technology, it is unique in the world in technology. In 2004, it occupied half of the global market share.</p><p><b>However, TSMC didn't expect that another storm that may subvert the industrial structure was quietly coming.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dc0fda484f9be29a169f2a280cc0408\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Soon after becoming the first brother of the OEM in the field of PC chips, Apple came with a tsunami of smart phones. Unfortunately, the protagonist this time was not TSMC at first.</p><p>In 2007, Jobs announced with the original iPhone in the spotlight, which was called an amazing cross-generation product. In the following years, every time a new iPhone is released, there will be a spectacle of crazy fruit powder queuing up in the early morning in front of Apple retail stores all over the world.</p><p>Behind the iPhone Fengshen, it also clearly shows one thing:<b>The era of smart phones has arrived. Only by winning Apple can we become a real chip foundry brother.</b></p><p>But anyone who knows the business knows that Jobs on the stage seems to be the \"God\" who released iPhone phones on the surface, but fundamentally, he is just a migrant worker of Samsung Empire on the other side of the ocean.</p><p>IHS, a market research agency, once disassembled the cost sources of previous generations of iPhones and found that in the era before the appearance of dual-camera and bathroom camera, the former<b>The three major sources of cost for several generations of iPhones are: processor, screen and storage. And in an iPhone, all three of these items are made by Samsung.</b></p><p>The processor and storage provided by Samsung are naturally made by Samsung. However, TSMC, which made almost half of the world's chips in those days, could only wait and see with silent envy.</p><p>However, as the top supply chain checks and balances master, Apple will definitely not allow its competitors to control its three lifebloods at the same time.</p><p>So, on the one hand, it mixed oil with Samsung, and on the other hand, Apple quietly connected with TSMC in 2010. In order to cooperate more smoothly between the two sides, TSMC has also set up a team composed of more than 100 cross-departmental R&D engineers.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>team \"team, stationed at Apple's headquarters in the United States, worked together to engage in secret research and development in an attempt to completely bypass Samsung's patents.</p><p>After the initial progress in research and development, Apple immediately filed 16 infringement charges against Samsung in 2011. Samsung, on the other hand, took Apple to court, counterclaimed Apple's infringement, and even asked the United States to ban the sale of iPhones.</p><p>Apple and Samsung are competing with each other, and TSMC gains.</p><p>Since Apple's A8 chip in 2014, TSMC has started to OEM most Apple chips. Since the iPhone 7 era, TSMC has completely monopolized the production of all Apple chips. The cooperation continues to this day, and Apple is still TSMC's largest customer, contributing nearly 20% of TSMC's revenue every year.</p><p>At this point, TSMC has officially confirmed the leading position of chip foundry.</p><p><b>But can just working for the most powerful customers make TSMC what it is today? As Apple's largest foundry, Foxconn was the first to disagree.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c04503bafb7a71524a1d953b35f1228\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Also the king of foundry, TSMC can stick the throat of global customers, while Foxconn is helpless to Apple to support competitors to steal business.</p><p>Behind the completely different destiny, in fact, the groundwork has been laid as early as the track selection.</p><p>Foxconn represented by<b>Electronic assembly is essentially a low-threshold industry that can start on the assembly line 24 hours a day as long as enough workers are gathered.</b>Therefore, as an OEM, twenty years ago, Foxconn was faced with the \"five tigers of Taiwan Province OEM\" in Taiwan Province, China-Quanta, Compal, Pegatron, Wistron and Inventec to grab business; In the past ten years, Foxconn has faced Luxshare, Goertek, Wentai,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>They are frantically grabbing business in their own territory.</p><p>This low technology content and low threshold are reflected in the financial report, which is manifested in Foxconn's gross profit that is thinner than a razor blade: in the past ten years,<b>In order to keep the gross profit that never exceeded 10%, Foxconn moved its factory all the way from Shenzhen to Zhengzhou, and then from Zhengzhou to Vietnam... constantly moving between different depressions of labor cost.</b></p><p>In sharp contrast, TSMC's corresponding chip foundry is an industry rolling forward on the wheel of Moore's Law. Under the leadership of Moore's Law, the number of components that can be accommodated on integrated circuits will double every 18 to 24 months, the size of corresponding transistors will continue to shrink, and the manufacture of semiconductors will become more and more difficult.</p><p>Reflected in the capital expenditure, the cost of the semiconductor industry has risen sharply in the process of upgrading from 8 inches to 12 inches: the cost of an 8-inch wafer fab depends on the production capacity of 100 million dollars at the lowest and 1.5 billion dollars at the highest, and ordinary enterprises can bite their teeth and still top it. The cost of a new 12-inch fab is as high as $2.5 billion to $3 billion, enough to leave most competitors in the industry behind.</p><p>Different technical content also determines different competitive landscape.<b>The harder Foxconn works, the more competitors it has; Along the way, TSMC has been unique in the world from 0.18 microns to 3 nanometers. Not only are there fewer and fewer competitors, but even its former big brothers Intel and IBM have been left behind.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12e071a18a041e0b8ddb78626d4f42b1\" tg-width=\"667\" tg-height=\"855\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>With fewer and fewer rivals, the profits will naturally get higher and higher. In Taiwan Province, China, Foxconn has set up factories worldwide, and its gross profit is less than 10%. If you don't pay attention, it will be contained by Apple with Wistron, Pegatron and Luxshare;</p><p>TSMC, which has insisted on producing high-end process products in Taiwan Province, China for 30 years, can maintain a gross profit of about 50% all year round, while customers want to grab TSMC's latest production capacity, but money is never enough: in September 2020, after TSMC was forced to cut off supply to Huawei due to US sanctions, Qualcomm and MediaTek had the opportunity to replace Huawei and use TSMC's latest 5nm production capacity.</p><p>The market share ranked first, and the capital threshold of the industry continued to improve; The dividend effect of technology is constantly superimposed... TSMC, which is alone in seeking defeat, has laid its unshakable first throne in the field of chip foundry.</p><p>Looking back at history, there are three main reasons for the rise of TSMC to become the king of foundry: in the PC era, it was supported by half Intel and Nvidia; The mobile phone era was chosen by Apple and became an important tool to check and balance Samsung; In the following years, he sat on the wheel of Moore's Law, relying on the advantages of technology and capital, and left many competitors far behind.</p><p>However, TSMC's change from the \"king of chip foundry\" to the \"king of stocks\" is still one last step away: let Internet companies whose market value ranks ahead of TSMC fall from the altar in the capital market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efede982c9faf847a3a670f3cc42a078\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"914\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since the beginning of the year, on the one hand, TSMC has made a lot of money in the epic chip shortage, and recently its stock price has become the king of Asian stocks. On the other hand, looking back at the traditional \"stock god\" Internet, Tencent has plunged by 45% from the highest point since the beginning of the year; Ali has fallen by more than 30% so far;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>The stock price has fallen by more than 45% since it was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.</p><p>From the king of chip foundry to the king of Asian stocks, TSMC is inseparable from its own efforts, and at the same time, it is inseparable from the process of history.</p><p>In addition to the process, it gives us a hint of enlightenment:<b>Do the hard and correct thing, and the more you persist, the smoother it will be.</b></p>","source":"lsy1571969218062","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why does TSMC become the king of Asian stocks?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy does TSMC become the king of Asian stocks?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">远川科技评论</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-28 10:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>At the beginning of 2020, the United States held seven of the world's ten largest companies by market capitalization, while China's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>And Ali are also on the list, becoming the only two companies in Asia to break into the list.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2b6b856b3f2f1196c329b1155f9fc5f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At that time, it was a natural result that Tencent and Ali entered the list. Six of the top ten enterprises were Internet, two finance and one resource, and the only hardware enterprise<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Production is not under their own control. At that time, if a family<b>Heavy on assets, heavy on manufacturing, no oil at home</b>Enterprises can still enter the top ten, which is tantamount to idiotic dreams.</p><p>But what I didn't expect was that on August 18, 2021, just over a year later,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>With a market value of $538 billion, it successfully surpassed Tencent and became the highest market value company in Asia.</p><p>Supporting the market value of TSMC's Asian stock king is TSMC's revenue of 13.29 billion US dollars in the second quarter, earning 147 million US dollars a day.</p><p>At the same time, the global shortage of chips has made TSMC's orders hard currency: not long ago, after Apple placed an order of 100 million chips at one time, TSMC's raw material suppliers directly broke the news, and TSMC's orders have been fully loaded until 2024.</p><p><b>Behind TSMC's replacement of Tencent as the Asian stock king, it is not only the change of market value of the two companies, but also the counterattack of hard technology manufacturing on the Internet.</b></p><p>So how did TSMC cultivate its current position as the king of stocks in an electronic industry with heavy assets, high labor costs and extremely strong customers?</p><p>The answer lies in the three historical opportunities of TSMC's rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8831ed0813cfe4215d1a7249b8194a1a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In December 1989, TSMC, which was just two years old, ushered in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>The head Li Jianxi personally poached the wall.</p><p>This time, Li Jianxi took a fancy to not a process leader or a technical bull, but directly locked his eyes on Zhang Zhongmou, the 58-year-old founder of TSMC.</p><p>The reason why Li Jianxi is so confident has a lot to do with the development background of the industry at that time: Samsung at that time was already the overlord of many industries, a super chaebol that controlled the lifeblood of South Korea;<b>However, the status of chip foundry in the industry at that time was actually similar to that of Foxconn, another foundry king in Taiwan Province, China today: the technical content is not high, and there are many competitors, all of which are located at the bottom of the \"smile curve\" of value distribution in the manufacturing industry chain</b>Do the most tiring work and earn the least money.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9789042af668ea4b67309f48e5f3e543\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>What's more,<b>At that time, chip manufacturing was still in the sub-micron stage, and the IDM mode of chip enterprises' own design, manufacture, and sealing and testing was the mainstream of the industry.</b>The top ten semiconductor companies in the world that year, NEC, Toshiba, Hitachi, Motorola,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>Fujitsu, Mitsubishi,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PC\">Panasonic</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PHG\">Philips</a>All are typical semiconductor IDM giants.</p><p>So, why do IDMs with their own factories look for TSMC, which is a fledgling company and whose craft is even inferior to their own, to OEM chips?</p><p>This is a very real problem faced by Zhang Zhongmou, an elderly entrepreneur, after rejecting Li Jianxi's olive branch.</p><p>Soon, however, TSMC ushered in its first era opportunity: the rise of PC.</p><p>Around 1988, under the leadership of Intel, the global electronic industry entered the PC era from the traditional mainframe era. While<b>The focus of the global semiconductor industry has gradually begun to move from traditional DRAM storage to digital chips represented by CPU and GPU.</b></p><p>traditional<b>DRAM memory chips are light in design and heavy in manufacturing, so IDM mode leads the development of the industry; For digital chips, chip manufacturing is certainly the top priority, but as the number of transistors in the chip reaches a million, the chip design investment required behind it is becoming more and more arduous. In the case of limited energy, it has become an imminent trend to separate design from manufacturing.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/673230fbc935dd61c98bcb0b5390e825\" tg-width=\"767\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Relying on the personal friendship between Intel President Grove and Zhang Zhongmou, Intel directly sent engineers to TSMC, and pointed out at least 200 process improvement processes for TSMC, which had only more than 200 manufacturing processes at that time.</p><p>You know, Intel at that time was synonymous with top chip manufacturing. The 80486 chip under development is not only the first in the world to use the 1-micron manufacturing process, but also the first high-end chip maker to break through 1 million transistor integration in one chip and reach 1.2 million pioneers.</p><p>Being coached one-on-one by Intel, TSMC won the first technical ticket to the top chip foundry in one fell swoop.</p><p>Shortly after getting this ticket, in 1995, TSMC agreed with the two-year-old<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>It hit it off and picked up another important boat ticket for the PC era.</p><p>In the next decade, TSMC has established a<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>Cooperation of chip design enterprises such as Meiman Electronics; On the other hand, through the research and development of copper process technology and wet lithography technology, it is unique in the world in technology. In 2004, it occupied half of the global market share.</p><p><b>However, TSMC didn't expect that another storm that may subvert the industrial structure was quietly coming.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dc0fda484f9be29a169f2a280cc0408\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Soon after becoming the first brother of the OEM in the field of PC chips, Apple came with a tsunami of smart phones. Unfortunately, the protagonist this time was not TSMC at first.</p><p>In 2007, Jobs announced with the original iPhone in the spotlight, which was called an amazing cross-generation product. In the following years, every time a new iPhone is released, there will be a spectacle of crazy fruit powder queuing up in the early morning in front of Apple retail stores all over the world.</p><p>Behind the iPhone Fengshen, it also clearly shows one thing:<b>The era of smart phones has arrived. Only by winning Apple can we become a real chip foundry brother.</b></p><p>But anyone who knows the business knows that Jobs on the stage seems to be the \"God\" who released iPhone phones on the surface, but fundamentally, he is just a migrant worker of Samsung Empire on the other side of the ocean.</p><p>IHS, a market research agency, once disassembled the cost sources of previous generations of iPhones and found that in the era before the appearance of dual-camera and bathroom camera, the former<b>The three major sources of cost for several generations of iPhones are: processor, screen and storage. And in an iPhone, all three of these items are made by Samsung.</b></p><p>The processor and storage provided by Samsung are naturally made by Samsung. However, TSMC, which made almost half of the world's chips in those days, could only wait and see with silent envy.</p><p>However, as the top supply chain checks and balances master, Apple will definitely not allow its competitors to control its three lifebloods at the same time.</p><p>So, on the one hand, it mixed oil with Samsung, and on the other hand, Apple quietly connected with TSMC in 2010. In order to cooperate more smoothly between the two sides, TSMC has also set up a team composed of more than 100 cross-departmental R&D engineers.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>team \"team, stationed at Apple's headquarters in the United States, worked together to engage in secret research and development in an attempt to completely bypass Samsung's patents.</p><p>After the initial progress in research and development, Apple immediately filed 16 infringement charges against Samsung in 2011. Samsung, on the other hand, took Apple to court, counterclaimed Apple's infringement, and even asked the United States to ban the sale of iPhones.</p><p>Apple and Samsung are competing with each other, and TSMC gains.</p><p>Since Apple's A8 chip in 2014, TSMC has started to OEM most Apple chips. Since the iPhone 7 era, TSMC has completely monopolized the production of all Apple chips. The cooperation continues to this day, and Apple is still TSMC's largest customer, contributing nearly 20% of TSMC's revenue every year.</p><p>At this point, TSMC has officially confirmed the leading position of chip foundry.</p><p><b>But can just working for the most powerful customers make TSMC what it is today? As Apple's largest foundry, Foxconn was the first to disagree.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c04503bafb7a71524a1d953b35f1228\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Also the king of foundry, TSMC can stick the throat of global customers, while Foxconn is helpless to Apple to support competitors to steal business.</p><p>Behind the completely different destiny, in fact, the groundwork has been laid as early as the track selection.</p><p>Foxconn represented by<b>Electronic assembly is essentially a low-threshold industry that can start on the assembly line 24 hours a day as long as enough workers are gathered.</b>Therefore, as an OEM, twenty years ago, Foxconn was faced with the \"five tigers of Taiwan Province OEM\" in Taiwan Province, China-Quanta, Compal, Pegatron, Wistron and Inventec to grab business; In the past ten years, Foxconn has faced Luxshare, Goertek, Wentai,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>They are frantically grabbing business in their own territory.</p><p>This low technology content and low threshold are reflected in the financial report, which is manifested in Foxconn's gross profit that is thinner than a razor blade: in the past ten years,<b>In order to keep the gross profit that never exceeded 10%, Foxconn moved its factory all the way from Shenzhen to Zhengzhou, and then from Zhengzhou to Vietnam... constantly moving between different depressions of labor cost.</b></p><p>In sharp contrast, TSMC's corresponding chip foundry is an industry rolling forward on the wheel of Moore's Law. Under the leadership of Moore's Law, the number of components that can be accommodated on integrated circuits will double every 18 to 24 months, the size of corresponding transistors will continue to shrink, and the manufacture of semiconductors will become more and more difficult.</p><p>Reflected in the capital expenditure, the cost of the semiconductor industry has risen sharply in the process of upgrading from 8 inches to 12 inches: the cost of an 8-inch wafer fab depends on the production capacity of 100 million dollars at the lowest and 1.5 billion dollars at the highest, and ordinary enterprises can bite their teeth and still top it. The cost of a new 12-inch fab is as high as $2.5 billion to $3 billion, enough to leave most competitors in the industry behind.</p><p>Different technical content also determines different competitive landscape.<b>The harder Foxconn works, the more competitors it has; Along the way, TSMC has been unique in the world from 0.18 microns to 3 nanometers. Not only are there fewer and fewer competitors, but even its former big brothers Intel and IBM have been left behind.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12e071a18a041e0b8ddb78626d4f42b1\" tg-width=\"667\" tg-height=\"855\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>With fewer and fewer rivals, the profits will naturally get higher and higher. In Taiwan Province, China, Foxconn has set up factories worldwide, and its gross profit is less than 10%. If you don't pay attention, it will be contained by Apple with Wistron, Pegatron and Luxshare;</p><p>TSMC, which has insisted on producing high-end process products in Taiwan Province, China for 30 years, can maintain a gross profit of about 50% all year round, while customers want to grab TSMC's latest production capacity, but money is never enough: in September 2020, after TSMC was forced to cut off supply to Huawei due to US sanctions, Qualcomm and MediaTek had the opportunity to replace Huawei and use TSMC's latest 5nm production capacity.</p><p>The market share ranked first, and the capital threshold of the industry continued to improve; The dividend effect of technology is constantly superimposed... TSMC, which is alone in seeking defeat, has laid its unshakable first throne in the field of chip foundry.</p><p>Looking back at history, there are three main reasons for the rise of TSMC to become the king of foundry: in the PC era, it was supported by half Intel and Nvidia; The mobile phone era was chosen by Apple and became an important tool to check and balance Samsung; In the following years, he sat on the wheel of Moore's Law, relying on the advantages of technology and capital, and left many competitors far behind.</p><p>However, TSMC's change from the \"king of chip foundry\" to the \"king of stocks\" is still one last step away: let Internet companies whose market value ranks ahead of TSMC fall from the altar in the capital market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efede982c9faf847a3a670f3cc42a078\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"914\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since the beginning of the year, on the one hand, TSMC has made a lot of money in the epic chip shortage, and recently its stock price has become the king of Asian stocks. On the other hand, looking back at the traditional \"stock god\" Internet, Tencent has plunged by 45% from the highest point since the beginning of the year; Ali has fallen by more than 30% so far;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>The stock price has fallen by more than 45% since it was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.</p><p>From the king of chip foundry to the king of Asian stocks, TSMC is inseparable from its own efforts, and at the same time, it is inseparable from the process of history.</p><p>In addition to the process, it gives us a hint of enlightenment:<b>Do the hard and correct thing, and the more you persist, the smoother it will be.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/1vKEt53uVNkuuzHjwkGPDA\">远川科技评论</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/975836d8c6eb511241583dccb0d387f2","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电","EWT":"台湾ETF-iShares MSCI","03145":"华夏亚洲高息股"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/1vKEt53uVNkuuzHjwkGPDA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184955585","content_text":"在2020年初，全球市值最大的十家企业中，美国独占7席，而中国的腾讯和阿里也榜上有名，成为亚洲唯二突入榜单的企业。\n\n在当时看来，腾讯和阿里进入榜单是一个再自然不过的结果，前十大企业中6个是互联网、2个金融、1个资源，唯一的硬件企业苹果，生产还不归自己管，当时如果说一家重资产、重制造、家里还没石油的企业还能进前十，无异于痴人说梦。\n但没有想到的是，仅仅一年多时间后的2021年8月18日，台积电就以5380亿美元的市值，成功超越腾讯，成为亚洲市值最高的公司。\n支撑起台积电亚洲股王市值的，是台积电二季度创下的132.9亿美元营收，一天赚1.47亿美元的亮眼业绩。\n与此同时，全球芯片大缺货，更是让台积电的订单成为硬通货：前不久，苹果一次性下单一亿片芯片后，台积电原材料供应商直接爆出猛料，台积电的订单已经满载到2024年。\n台积电取代腾讯成为亚洲股王的背后，不仅是两家企业市值的变化，同时，更是一场硬科技制造对互联网的逆袭。\n那么台积电究竟是如何在一个重资产、高人力成本投入，客户又极度强势的电子行业中，修炼出如今的股王地位？\n答案就藏在台积电崛起的三次历史机遇之中。\n\n1989年12月，刚成立两年的台积电就迎来三星掌门人李健熙的亲自挖墙脚。\n这一次，李健熙看上的，不是什么工艺负责人，也不是什么技术大牛，而是直接将目光锁定在了已经58岁的台积电创始人张忠谋的身上。\n李健熙之所以如此自信，与当时的行业发展背景有着很大的关系：当年的三星，已然是多个行业的霸主，把控韩国命脉的超级财阀；而芯片代工，在当时的行业地位，其实与如今中国台湾的另一个代工之王——富士康差不多：技术含量不高，竞争对手不少，都是位于制造业产业链价值分配“微笑曲线”的最底端，干着最累的活儿，赚最少的钱。\n\n更何况，当时的芯片制造还停留在亚微米阶段，芯片企业自己设计，自己制造，自己封测的IDM模式才是业界主流。当年的全球十大半导体公司，NEC、东芝、日立、摩托罗拉、德州仪器、富士通、三菱、英特尔、松下、飞利浦全部是典型的半导体IDM巨头。\n那么，有自己的工厂的IDM们，为什么要找初出茅庐，工艺甚至还不如自己的台积电来代工芯片？\n这是在拒绝了李健熙橄榄枝后，摆在高龄创业者——张忠谋面前的一个很现实的问题。\n不过很快，台积电就迎来了属于它的第一个时代机遇：PC崛起。\n1988年前后，在英特尔的带领下，全球的电子产业从传统的大型机时代进入PC时代。而全球的半导体产业的重心也开始逐渐从传统的DRAM存储开始向CPU、GPU为代表的数字芯片迈进。\n传统的DRAM存储芯片的轻设计重制造，因此IDM模式主导行业发展；而对数字芯片来说，芯片制造固然是头等大事，但随着芯片内晶体管的数量迈上百万台阶，背后所需的芯片设计投入，也越来越繁重。在精力有限的情况下，将设计与制造分离，已经成为迫在眉睫的大趋势。\n\n凭借着英特尔总裁格鲁夫与张忠谋的私人交情，英特尔直接派驻工程师入驻台积电，对当时制造工艺仅有二百多道环节的台积电，一口气指出了至少二百个工艺改进流程。\n要知道，当时的英特尔，正是顶级芯片制造的代名词。其正在的研发的80486芯片，不仅是全球最先使用1微米的制造工艺的，同时更是首次在一个芯片中突破了100万个晶体管集成，达到120万创举的高端芯片制造者。\n能被英特尔一对一辅导，台积电一举拿下了通往顶级芯片代工的第一张技术门票。\n拿到了这张门票后不久，1995年台积电又与刚成立两年的英伟达一拍即合，拿下了PC时代的另一张重要船票。\n此后十年间，台积电一边确立了与高通、美满电子等芯片设计企业的合作；另一边，还通过铜制程技术以及湿法光刻工艺技术的研发，在技术上独步全球，在2004年，占据了全球市场份额的半壁江山。\n只是，台积电没想到，另一个可能颠覆产业格局的风暴正在悄悄到来。\n\n成为PC芯片领域代工一哥不久后，苹果带着智能手机山呼海啸的袭来，只可惜，这一次的主角，一开始并不是台积电。\n2007年，乔布斯拿着初代iPhone在万众瞩目中官宣，被称为惊艳的跨时代产品。此后数年，每逢iPhone发布新机，世界各地的苹果零售店门前都会出现疯狂的果粉凌晨排队抢购的奇观。\n而iPhone封神的背后，也明明白白的昭示了一件事：智能机时代已经到来，只有拿下苹果，才能成为真正的芯片代工一哥。\n但是懂行的都知道，台上的乔布斯，表面看似是发布iPhone手机的“上帝”，但根本上，却只是大洋彼岸三星帝国的打工人。\n市调机构IHS，曾对历代iPhone的成本来源进行拆解发现，在还没出现双摄与浴霸摄像头的年代里，前几代iPhone的三大成本来源，分别是：处理器，屏幕以及存储。而一部iPhone手机中，这三项全部made by Samsung。\n三星提供的处理器与存储，自然是三星制造。而当年代工了全球几乎一半芯片的台积电，却只能默默羡慕的观望。\n但作为顶级的供应链制衡大师，苹果一定不会允许，让自己的竞争对手，同时把控着自己的三大命脉。\n于是，一边与三星蜜里调油，另一边，2010年苹果就悄悄与台积电搭上了线。为了双方能够合作得更顺畅，台积电还专门成立了一支由百余位跨部门的研发工程师组成的“one team”战队，驻扎美国苹果总部，一起快马加鞭搞秘密研发，企图彻底绕过三星的专利。\n研发初见进展后，苹果立刻在2011年闪电向三星提起16项侵权指控。而三星则反手又将苹果告上法庭，反诉苹果侵权，甚至要求美国禁售iPhone。\n苹果与三星鹬蚌相争，台积电渔翁得利。\n从2014年苹果的A8芯片起，台积电开始代工大部分苹果芯片，iPhone 7时代开始，台积电则完全垄断了所有苹果芯片的生产。合作延续至如今，苹果仍是台积电最大的客户，每年为台积电贡献了近20%的收入。\n至此，台积电正式确定了芯片代工的龙头地位。\n但只是给最厉害的客户打工，就能够成就如今的台积电吗？作为苹果最大的代工厂，富士康第一个不同意。\n\n同样是代工之王，台积电可以卡住全球客户的咽喉，而富士康却对苹果扶持竞争对手来抢生意无可奈何。\n截然不同的命运背后，其实早在赛道选择之时就已经埋下伏笔。\n以富士康为代表的电子产品组装，本质上是个只要召集了足够多工人，就能在流水线上24小时开工的低门槛行业。因此，做代工，二十年前，富士康在中国台湾面临着“台系代工五虎”——广达、仁宝、和硕、纬创、英业达抢生意；最近十年，富士康又面临着，曾经一手带大的大陆“小弟”立讯、歌尔、闻泰、比亚迪们，在自己的地盘疯狂抢生意。\n这种低技术含量、低门槛体现在财报中，就表现为富士康比剃须刀刀片还要薄的毛利之中：近十年，富士康为保住从未突破10%的毛利，一路将工厂从深圳搬到郑州，又从郑州拓展到越南……不断在人力成本的不同洼地之间辗转搬迁。\n与此形成鲜明对比的是，台积电对应的芯片代工是一个坐在摩尔定律车轮上滚滚向前的产业。在摩尔定律的主导下，集成电路上可容纳的元器件的数量每隔18至24个月就会增加一倍，相应的晶体管的尺寸也会不断缩小，半导体的制造难度也越来越高。\n体现在资本开支上，半导体行业从8英寸向12英寸升级的过程中，成本急剧上升：一座8英寸的晶圆厂造价视产能最低1亿，最高15亿美元，一般的企业咬咬牙还能顶上。而一座新的12英寸晶圆厂造价则高达25亿到30亿美金，足以将行业内大部分竞争对手甩在身后。\n不同的技术含量，也决定了不同的竞争格局。富士康越努力，竞争对手越多；而台积电一路走来，从0.18微米到3纳米独步天下，不仅竞争对手越来越少，就连曾经的老大哥英特尔、IBM也被甩在身后。\n\n对手越来越少，利润自然就越来越高，同处中国台湾，富士康全球设厂，毛利不足10%，一不留神，就被苹果用纬创、和硕以及立讯牵制；\n而坚持三十年只在中国台湾生产高阶制程产品的台积电，则可以常年维持在50%左右的毛利，而客户想要抢到台积电的最新产能，只是有钱还万万不够：2020年9月，台积电因美国制裁被迫断供华为后，高通、联发科这才有了替补华为，用上台积电最新5nm产能的机会。\n市场份额稳居第一，行业的资金门槛不断提升；技术的红利效应不断叠加……独孤求败的台积电，在芯片代工领域，已然奠定了其不可撼动的第一宝座。\n回顾历史，台积电能崛起成为代工之王，有三大原因：PC时代，有了半个英特尔与英伟达支持；手机时代被苹果选择，成为制衡三星的重要工具；此后数年，又坐在摩尔定律的车轮上，靠着技术与资本优势，将一众竞争对手远远甩在身后。\n只不过，台积电从“芯片代工之王”变成“股王”，还差最后一步：让市值排在台积电之前的互联网企业们，在资本市场跌落神坛。\n\n从年初至今，一边是台积电在史诗级的芯片大缺货中赚得盆满钵满，近期股价更是一跃成为亚洲股王。另一边，反观传统“股神”互联网，年初至今，腾讯从最高点暴跌45%；阿里至今跌幅超过30%；百度股价更在港交所上市至今跌幅超过45%。\n从芯片代工之王进阶亚洲股王背后，台积电离不开自身的努力，同时，更离不开历史的进程。\n而进程之外，更给我们一丝启示：做难而正确的事，越坚持越顺利。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03145":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"EWT":0.9,"TWmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2673,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107356656,"gmtCreate":1620447051275,"gmtModify":1704343881608,"author":{"id":"3574563059595551","authorId":"3574563059595551","name":"希菟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c99310785abc9b8abf540f583e93c89","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574563059595551","authorIdStr":"3574563059595551"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"W9h, what happened, why my stock never been like that","listText":"W9h, what happened, why my stock never been like that","text":"W9h, what happened, why my stock never been like 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00:27","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Zhihu submitted a prospectus to NYSE and officially launched its listing in the United States","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154986292","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美东时间3月5日，中国最大的在线问答社区知乎正式向美国证监会递交首次公开招股书，计划在纽交所上市，代码为“ZH”。$$招股书显示，知乎2019年、2020年的营收分别为6.71亿元人民币和13.52亿元人民币，同比增长达101.7%。其中，广告收入从2019年的5.77亿元人民币升至2020年的8.43亿元人民币，同比增长46，但对总营收占比从86.1%降至62.4%，这意味着，知乎在商业多元化布局上初见所成。","content":"<p>On March 5th, Eastern Time, Zhihu, China's largest online Q&A community, officially submitted its initial public prospectus to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and plans to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange with the code \"ZH\". Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse and JPMorgan served as underwriters.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">$ (ZH) $</a><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feaff0024cc3a86087dd8625a1c7b2f2\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"682\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">According to the prospectus, Zhihu's revenue in 2019 and 2020 was 671 million yuan and 1.352 billion yuan, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 101.7%. Among them, advertising revenue increased from RMB 577 million in 2019 to RMB 843 million in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 46%, but the proportion of total revenue decreased from 86.1% to 62.4%, which means that Zhihu has first seen success in business diversification layout.</p><p>Revenue from paid members increased from RMB 88 million in 2019 to RMB 320 million in 2020, up 264% year-on-year, and its contribution to total revenue increased from 13.1% to 23.7%. The revenue of the newly opened revenue channel – content commercialization solution in 2020 was RMB136 million, accounting for 10% of the total revenue; Other income, including online education and e-commerce, surged from RMB4.45 million to RMB52.53 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 1,083%.</p><p>In terms of operational data, as of December 31, 2020, Zhihu had a total of 43.1 million content creators and contributed a total of 315 million Q&A content. In the fourth quarter of 2020, Zhihu averaged 75.7 million monthly active users (MAUs), up 33% year-on-year from the same period in 20219. In the fourth quarter of 2020, users generated an average of 676 million monthly interactions in the community.</p><p>According to CIC, Zhihu is the largest high-quality online Q&A community in China and one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China. According to the CIC survey, Zhihu is recognized as the most trustworthy online content community, and is widely recognized by the people for its high-quality content.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that Zhihu has been favored by capital since its establishment. It has successively obtained strategic investment from Tencent, Aauto Quicker and Baidu. And received early-stage investments including Capital Today, Qiming Venture Capital, SAIF and Sinovation Ventures. This is inseparable from Zhihu's good community atmosphere and large-scale accumulation of high-quality content.</p><p>Tiger Information noted that Zhihu was established in December 2010, and the company's name may come from The Analects of Confucius: Asking Politics: \"Confucius said: 'You, teach a woman to know! Knowing is knowing, and not knowing is not knowing, which is knowing.'\" At the beginning of Zhihu's birth, it was benchmarked against Quora, an American knowledge question and answer community. With a series of differentiated operations, Zhihu has successively entered the fields of knowledge payment, live broadcast, good things recommendation and short video, and built its complete community ecology. Zhihu was established ten years ago. Compared with many previous listing cases of Internet companies, Zhihu's listing journey seems to be slower. However, its founder Zhou Yuan once said in an exclusive interview: Zhihu is not a sprint product, and the product form of community takes a long time to accumulate. All the characteristics of things are accumulated and grown up bit by bit, and the natural one takes time.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zhihu submitted a prospectus to NYSE and officially launched its listing in the United States</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZhihu submitted a prospectus to NYSE and officially launched its listing in the United States\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-06 00:27</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On March 5th, Eastern Time, Zhihu, China's largest online Q&A community, officially submitted its initial public prospectus to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and plans to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange with the code \"ZH\". Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse and JPMorgan served as underwriters.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">$ (ZH) $</a><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feaff0024cc3a86087dd8625a1c7b2f2\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"682\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">According to the prospectus, Zhihu's revenue in 2019 and 2020 was 671 million yuan and 1.352 billion yuan, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 101.7%. Among them, advertising revenue increased from RMB 577 million in 2019 to RMB 843 million in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 46%, but the proportion of total revenue decreased from 86.1% to 62.4%, which means that Zhihu has first seen success in business diversification layout.</p><p>Revenue from paid members increased from RMB 88 million in 2019 to RMB 320 million in 2020, up 264% year-on-year, and its contribution to total revenue increased from 13.1% to 23.7%. The revenue of the newly opened revenue channel – content commercialization solution in 2020 was RMB136 million, accounting for 10% of the total revenue; Other income, including online education and e-commerce, surged from RMB4.45 million to RMB52.53 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 1,083%.</p><p>In terms of operational data, as of December 31, 2020, Zhihu had a total of 43.1 million content creators and contributed a total of 315 million Q&A content. In the fourth quarter of 2020, Zhihu averaged 75.7 million monthly active users (MAUs), up 33% year-on-year from the same period in 20219. In the fourth quarter of 2020, users generated an average of 676 million monthly interactions in the community.</p><p>According to CIC, Zhihu is the largest high-quality online Q&A community in China and one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China. According to the CIC survey, Zhihu is recognized as the most trustworthy online content community, and is widely recognized by the people for its high-quality content.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that Zhihu has been favored by capital since its establishment. It has successively obtained strategic investment from Tencent, Aauto Quicker and Baidu. And received early-stage investments including Capital Today, Qiming Venture Capital, SAIF and Sinovation Ventures. This is inseparable from Zhihu's good community atmosphere and large-scale accumulation of high-quality content.</p><p>Tiger Information noted that Zhihu was established in December 2010, and the company's name may come from The Analects of Confucius: Asking Politics: \"Confucius said: 'You, teach a woman to know! Knowing is knowing, and not knowing is not knowing, which is knowing.'\" At the beginning of Zhihu's birth, it was benchmarked against Quora, an American knowledge question and answer community. With a series of differentiated operations, Zhihu has successively entered the fields of knowledge payment, live broadcast, good things recommendation and short video, and built its complete community ecology. Zhihu was established ten years ago. Compared with many previous listing cases of Internet companies, Zhihu's listing journey seems to be slower. However, its founder Zhou Yuan once said in an exclusive interview: Zhihu is not a sprint product, and the product form of community takes a long time to accumulate. All the characteristics of things are accumulated and grown up bit by bit, and the natural one takes time.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feaff0024cc3a86087dd8625a1c7b2f2","relate_stocks":{"ZH":"知乎"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154986292","content_text":"美东时间3月5日，中国最大的在线问答社区知乎正式向美国证监会（SEC）递交首次公开招股书，计划在纽交所上市，代码为“ZH”。高盛、瑞信和摩根大通担任承销商。$(ZH)$招股书显示，知乎2019年、2020年的营收分别为6.71亿元人民币和13.52亿元人民币，同比增长达101.7%。其中，广告收入从2019年的5.77亿元人民币升至2020年的8.43亿元人民币，同比增长46，但对总营收占比从86.1%降至62.4%，这意味着，知乎在商业多元化布局上初见所成。来自付费会员收入从2019年的8800万元人民币升至2020年的3.2亿元人民币，同比大涨264%，对总营收贡献从13.1%上升至23.7%。新开辟的营收途径-内容商业化解决方案2020年收入为1.36亿元人民币，占总营收贡献达10%；包括在线教育、电商在内的其他收入从445万元人民币大涨至5253万元人民币，同比爆增1,083%。 运营数据方面，截至2020年12月31日，知乎累计拥有内容创作者4310万，累计贡献3.15亿条问答内容。2020年第四季度，知乎月均活跃用户（MAUs）为7570万，较20219年同期同比增长33%，2020年第四季度，用户在社区月均产生6.76亿次互动。据灼识咨询（CIC），知乎是中国最大的高质量在线问答社区，也是中国前五大综合在线内容社区之一。灼识咨询（CIC）调查显示，知乎被公认为最值得信赖的在线内容社区，以高质量内容得到国民广泛认可。 值得一提的是，知乎自创立以来颇受资本青睐。先后获得腾讯、快手、百度的战略投资。并获得包括今日资本、启明创投、赛富、创新工场等早期投资。这与知乎良好的社区氛围与规模化的优质内容积累密不可分。 老虎资讯注意到，知乎成立于2010年12月，公司命名或来自《论语·问政》：“子曰：’由，诲女知之乎！知之为知之，不知为不知，是知也。’”知乎诞生之初对标美国知识问答社区Quora，随着一系列差异化运营，知乎先后进入了知识付费、直播、好物推荐、短视频领域，构建其完整的社区生态。知乎成立十年，与此前很多互联网企业上市案例相比，知乎的上市路程似乎慢了一些，但其创始人周源曾在接受专访时说道：知乎并不是一个短跑型产品，社区这样的产品形态，是需要比较长的时间积累。所有的事情特点都是一点一点的累计成长起来的，天然的就需要时间。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366633323,"gmtCreate":1614471208162,"gmtModify":1704771892180,"author":{"id":"3574563059595551","authorId":"3574563059595551","name":"希菟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c99310785abc9b8abf540f583e93c89","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574563059595551","authorIdStr":"3574563059595551"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"lj，??????????","listText":"lj，??????????","text":"lj，??????????","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/767a144bbbf5e38e3a7deed8adf242ab","width":"1125","height":"2570"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/366633323","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2648,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360248719,"gmtCreate":1613949957731,"gmtModify":1704886018845,"author":{"id":"3574563059595551","authorId":"3574563059595551","name":"希菟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c99310785abc9b8abf540f583e93c89","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574563059595551","authorIdStr":"3574563059595551"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"…………………","listText":"…………………","text":"…………………","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a65c0daed3d5197f2ea10930443d07b1","width":"1125","height":"3020"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/360248719","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":384916435,"gmtCreate":1613605927527,"gmtModify":1704882591262,"author":{"id":"3574563059595551","authorId":"3574563059595551","name":"希菟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c99310785abc9b8abf540f583e93c89","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574563059595551","authorIdStr":"3574563059595551"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"IQIY IQIY","listText":"IQIY IQIY","text":"IQIY IQIY","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/384916435","repostId":"1193108537","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193108537","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1613604224,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193108537?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-18 07:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Total Subscription Membership Drops, iQiyi Drops More Than 9% After Hours","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193108537","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2月17日美股盘后，爱奇艺公布2020年第四季度及2020财年业绩。财报显示：爱奇艺第四季度营收75亿元，市场预期74.84亿元，去年同期74.97亿元；净亏损15.49亿元，市场预期亏损18.84亿","content":"<p>After the U.S. stock market closed on February 17th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQIYI</a>Announced fourth quarter 2020 and fiscal year 2020 results. The financial report shows that iQiyi's revenue in the fourth quarter was 7.5 billion yuan, with the market expectation of 7.484 billion yuan and 7.497 billion yuan in the same period last year; The net loss was 1.549 billion yuan, the market expected loss was 1.884 billion yuan, and the loss in the same period of last year was 2.495 billion yuan; The loss per ADS was 2.1 yuan, and the market expected loss was 2.44 yuan, compared with a loss of 3.43 yuan in the same period last year.</p><p>In fiscal 2020, iQiyi's total revenue was 29.7 billion yuan, of which membership services, online advertising, content distribution and other revenue were 16.5 billion yuan, 6.8 billion yuan, 2.7 billion yuan and 3.7 billion yuan, respectively. At the same time, iQIYI's operating loss and net loss attributable to iQIYI both narrowed significantly, and the net loss decreased by 3.3 billion yuan compared with the same period of 2019.</p><p>In the overall revenue structure of iQiyi, membership service revenue has surpassed advertising revenue for the first time since the third quarter of 2018, and has become the largest revenue pillar of iQiyi for ten consecutive quarters. As of December 31, 2020, the total number of subscribed members was 101.7 million, down from the same period last year, while iQIYI's membership revenue in 2020 increased by 14% from the same period last year to 16.5 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a514094be235758e64ec6e5104cd3a74\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"836\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After the financial report was announced, iQIYI's share price fell by more than 9% after hours.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b2db0154b9063dca12852911ee2cdc\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Fourth Quarter 2020 Financial Results</b></p><p>Total revenue reached 7.5 billion yuan ($1.1 billion), down 1% from the same period in 2019.</p><p>Revenue from membership services was 3.8 billion yuan (US$587.8 million), a decrease of 1% from the same period in 2019. The decrease was mainly attributable to a decrease in subscription membership to 101.7 million from 106.9 million a year ago.</p><p>Revenue from online advertising services was 1.9 billion yuan ($284.9 million), down 1% from the same period in 2019.</p><p>Revenue from content distribution was RMB804.3 million (US$123.3 million), representing a decrease of 8% as compared to the same period in 2019. The decrease was mainly due to a decrease in cash transactions, partially offset by an increase in barter transactions.</p><p>Other income was 959.6 million yuan ($147.1 million), up 10% from the same period in 2019, primarily due to growth in certain business lines.</p><p>Cost of revenue was RMB6.8 billion (US$1 billion), a decrease of 14% from the same period in 2019. The decrease in cost of revenue was primarily due to a decrease in content costs during the quarter. Content costs, an integral part of the cost of revenue, amounted to 5.1 billion yuan ($786.1 million), a 10% decrease compared to the same period in 2019. The decrease was primarily attributable to reduced recording expenses for producing content, an increase in shorter-length content that met the needs of diverse users, and updated accounting estimates for future viewership of consumption patterns and useful lives of content assets to better reflect the intended use of those content assets.</p><p>Selling, general and administrative expenses were RMB1.3 billion (US$201.9 million), a decrease of 6% from the same period in 2019. This was mainly attributed to a decrease in marketing expenses.</p><p>Research and development expenses amounted to RMB663.4 million (US$101.7 million), representing a decrease of 7% compared to the same period in 2019, primarily due to a decrease in personnel-related compensation expenses.</p><p>Operating loss was originally 1.3 billion yuan ($200.4 million), compared to an operating loss of 2.5 billion yuan and an operating loss margin of 18%, compared to 34% for the same period in 2019.</p><p>Other expenses totalled RMB241.0 million (US$36.9 million), compared to total other income of RMB75.3 million for the same period in 2019. The year-on-year change was mainly due to the decrease in foreign exchange gains.</p><p>Loss before income tax was 1.5 billion yuan ($237.3 million), compared to the loss before income tax of 2.5 billion yuan in the same period in 2019</p><p>Income tax income originally amounted to RMB16.3 million (US$2.5 million), while income tax expense amounted to RMB22.6 million for the same period in 2019.</p><p>Net loss attributable to iQiyi was 1.5 billion yuan ($237.2 million), while net loss attributable to iQiyi was 2.5 billion yuan for the same period in 2019. Diluted net loss per ADR attributable to iQiyi was RMB2.10 (NT$0.32) as compared to diluted net loss per ADR attributable to iQiyi of RMB3.43 in the fourth quarter of 2020.</p><p>As of December 31, 2020, the Company had cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and the following short-term investments: RMB14.3 billion (US$2.2 billion).</p><p><b>Fiscal Year 2020 Financial Results</b></p><p>Total revenue reached 29.7 billion yuan ($4.6 billion), up 2% from 2019.</p><p>Revenue from membership services was 16.5 billion yuan ($2.5 billion), up 14% from 2019. The increase was primarily attributable to the increase in subscription membership pulled by Covid-19 in the first half of 2020, as well as the exclusive content and various operational plans we launched during the year.</p><p>Revenue from online advertising services had been 6.8 billion yuan ($1 billion), down 18% from 2019. The decrease was mainly due to the challenging macroeconomic environment in the PRC.</p><p>Content distribution revenue had been 2.7 billion yuan ($407.7 million), up 5% from 2019.</p><p>Other income was RMB 3.7 billion ($572.3 million), unchanged from 2019.</p><p>Cost of revenue was RMB27.9 billion (US$4.3 billion), an 8% decrease from 2019. The decrease was mainly due to the decrease in content costs and other cost items. Content costs, an integral part of the cost of revenue, amounted to 20.9 billion yuan ($3.2 billion), down 6% compared to 2019. The decrease was due to reduced spending on recorded production content, shorter-length content meeting the needs of diverse users, and updated accounting estimates of future viewing consumption patterns and useful lives of content assets to better reflect the intended use of these content assets.</p><p>Selling, general and administrative expenses were 5.2 billion yuan ($795.1 million), a decrease of 1% from 2019. This was mainly due to reduced marketing expenses.</p><p>Research and development expenses of RMB2.7 billion (US$410 million) remained unchanged since 2019, primarily due to a decrease in personnel compensation offset by an increase in stock-based compensation expenses.</p><p>Operating loss was originally 6 billion yuan ($925.7 million), compared to an operating loss of 9.3 billion yuan. The operating loss margin in 2019 was 20%, compared to 32% in 2019.</p><p>Other expenses totalled RMB943.4 million (US$144.6 million), compared to RMB967.1 million in 2019 as compared to total other expenses.</p><p>Loss before income tax was 7 billion yuan ($1.1 billion), compared to loss before income tax of 10.2 billion yuan in 2019.</p><p>Income tax expenses originally amounted to RMB23.3 million (US$3.6 million), while income tax expenses amounted to RMB51.9 million in 2019.</p><p>Net losses attributable to iQiyi were 7 billion yuan ($1.1 billion), while net losses attributable to iQiyi were 10.3 billion yuan in 2019. Diluted net loss per ADS attributable to iQIYI was RMB9.52 (US$1.47), compared to iQIYI's diluted net loss per ADS of RMB14.14 in 2019.</p><p><b>Financial guidance</b></p><p>iQIYI expects total net income in the first quarter of 2021 to be between 7.07 billion yuan ($1.08 billion) and 7.53 billion yuan ($1.15 billion), a year-over-year decline of 8% to 2%. This forecast reflects iQIYI's current and preliminary views and is subject to change.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Total Subscription Membership Drops, iQiyi Drops More Than 9% After Hours</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTotal Subscription Membership Drops, iQiyi Drops More Than 9% After Hours\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-02-18 07:23</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After the U.S. stock market closed on February 17th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQIYI</a>Announced fourth quarter 2020 and fiscal year 2020 results. The financial report shows that iQiyi's revenue in the fourth quarter was 7.5 billion yuan, with the market expectation of 7.484 billion yuan and 7.497 billion yuan in the same period last year; The net loss was 1.549 billion yuan, the market expected loss was 1.884 billion yuan, and the loss in the same period of last year was 2.495 billion yuan; The loss per ADS was 2.1 yuan, and the market expected loss was 2.44 yuan, compared with a loss of 3.43 yuan in the same period last year.</p><p>In fiscal 2020, iQiyi's total revenue was 29.7 billion yuan, of which membership services, online advertising, content distribution and other revenue were 16.5 billion yuan, 6.8 billion yuan, 2.7 billion yuan and 3.7 billion yuan, respectively. At the same time, iQIYI's operating loss and net loss attributable to iQIYI both narrowed significantly, and the net loss decreased by 3.3 billion yuan compared with the same period of 2019.</p><p>In the overall revenue structure of iQiyi, membership service revenue has surpassed advertising revenue for the first time since the third quarter of 2018, and has become the largest revenue pillar of iQiyi for ten consecutive quarters. As of December 31, 2020, the total number of subscribed members was 101.7 million, down from the same period last year, while iQIYI's membership revenue in 2020 increased by 14% from the same period last year to 16.5 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a514094be235758e64ec6e5104cd3a74\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"836\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After the financial report was announced, iQIYI's share price fell by more than 9% after hours.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b2db0154b9063dca12852911ee2cdc\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Fourth Quarter 2020 Financial Results</b></p><p>Total revenue reached 7.5 billion yuan ($1.1 billion), down 1% from the same period in 2019.</p><p>Revenue from membership services was 3.8 billion yuan (US$587.8 million), a decrease of 1% from the same period in 2019. The decrease was mainly attributable to a decrease in subscription membership to 101.7 million from 106.9 million a year ago.</p><p>Revenue from online advertising services was 1.9 billion yuan ($284.9 million), down 1% from the same period in 2019.</p><p>Revenue from content distribution was RMB804.3 million (US$123.3 million), representing a decrease of 8% as compared to the same period in 2019. The decrease was mainly due to a decrease in cash transactions, partially offset by an increase in barter transactions.</p><p>Other income was 959.6 million yuan ($147.1 million), up 10% from the same period in 2019, primarily due to growth in certain business lines.</p><p>Cost of revenue was RMB6.8 billion (US$1 billion), a decrease of 14% from the same period in 2019. The decrease in cost of revenue was primarily due to a decrease in content costs during the quarter. Content costs, an integral part of the cost of revenue, amounted to 5.1 billion yuan ($786.1 million), a 10% decrease compared to the same period in 2019. The decrease was primarily attributable to reduced recording expenses for producing content, an increase in shorter-length content that met the needs of diverse users, and updated accounting estimates for future viewership of consumption patterns and useful lives of content assets to better reflect the intended use of those content assets.</p><p>Selling, general and administrative expenses were RMB1.3 billion (US$201.9 million), a decrease of 6% from the same period in 2019. This was mainly attributed to a decrease in marketing expenses.</p><p>Research and development expenses amounted to RMB663.4 million (US$101.7 million), representing a decrease of 7% compared to the same period in 2019, primarily due to a decrease in personnel-related compensation expenses.</p><p>Operating loss was originally 1.3 billion yuan ($200.4 million), compared to an operating loss of 2.5 billion yuan and an operating loss margin of 18%, compared to 34% for the same period in 2019.</p><p>Other expenses totalled RMB241.0 million (US$36.9 million), compared to total other income of RMB75.3 million for the same period in 2019. The year-on-year change was mainly due to the decrease in foreign exchange gains.</p><p>Loss before income tax was 1.5 billion yuan ($237.3 million), compared to the loss before income tax of 2.5 billion yuan in the same period in 2019</p><p>Income tax income originally amounted to RMB16.3 million (US$2.5 million), while income tax expense amounted to RMB22.6 million for the same period in 2019.</p><p>Net loss attributable to iQiyi was 1.5 billion yuan ($237.2 million), while net loss attributable to iQiyi was 2.5 billion yuan for the same period in 2019. Diluted net loss per ADR attributable to iQiyi was RMB2.10 (NT$0.32) as compared to diluted net loss per ADR attributable to iQiyi of RMB3.43 in the fourth quarter of 2020.</p><p>As of December 31, 2020, the Company had cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and the following short-term investments: RMB14.3 billion (US$2.2 billion).</p><p><b>Fiscal Year 2020 Financial Results</b></p><p>Total revenue reached 29.7 billion yuan ($4.6 billion), up 2% from 2019.</p><p>Revenue from membership services was 16.5 billion yuan ($2.5 billion), up 14% from 2019. The increase was primarily attributable to the increase in subscription membership pulled by Covid-19 in the first half of 2020, as well as the exclusive content and various operational plans we launched during the year.</p><p>Revenue from online advertising services had been 6.8 billion yuan ($1 billion), down 18% from 2019. The decrease was mainly due to the challenging macroeconomic environment in the PRC.</p><p>Content distribution revenue had been 2.7 billion yuan ($407.7 million), up 5% from 2019.</p><p>Other income was RMB 3.7 billion ($572.3 million), unchanged from 2019.</p><p>Cost of revenue was RMB27.9 billion (US$4.3 billion), an 8% decrease from 2019. The decrease was mainly due to the decrease in content costs and other cost items. Content costs, an integral part of the cost of revenue, amounted to 20.9 billion yuan ($3.2 billion), down 6% compared to 2019. The decrease was due to reduced spending on recorded production content, shorter-length content meeting the needs of diverse users, and updated accounting estimates of future viewing consumption patterns and useful lives of content assets to better reflect the intended use of these content assets.</p><p>Selling, general and administrative expenses were 5.2 billion yuan ($795.1 million), a decrease of 1% from 2019. This was mainly due to reduced marketing expenses.</p><p>Research and development expenses of RMB2.7 billion (US$410 million) remained unchanged since 2019, primarily due to a decrease in personnel compensation offset by an increase in stock-based compensation expenses.</p><p>Operating loss was originally 6 billion yuan ($925.7 million), compared to an operating loss of 9.3 billion yuan. The operating loss margin in 2019 was 20%, compared to 32% in 2019.</p><p>Other expenses totalled RMB943.4 million (US$144.6 million), compared to RMB967.1 million in 2019 as compared to total other expenses.</p><p>Loss before income tax was 7 billion yuan ($1.1 billion), compared to loss before income tax of 10.2 billion yuan in 2019.</p><p>Income tax expenses originally amounted to RMB23.3 million (US$3.6 million), while income tax expenses amounted to RMB51.9 million in 2019.</p><p>Net losses attributable to iQiyi were 7 billion yuan ($1.1 billion), while net losses attributable to iQiyi were 10.3 billion yuan in 2019. Diluted net loss per ADS attributable to iQIYI was RMB9.52 (US$1.47), compared to iQIYI's diluted net loss per ADS of RMB14.14 in 2019.</p><p><b>Financial guidance</b></p><p>iQIYI expects total net income in the first quarter of 2021 to be between 7.07 billion yuan ($1.08 billion) and 7.53 billion yuan ($1.15 billion), a year-over-year decline of 8% to 2%. This forecast reflects iQIYI's current and preliminary views and is subject to change.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f48fbc541b07547e95dfb5b1221fb6ed","relate_stocks":{"IQ":"爱奇艺"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193108537","content_text":"2月17日美股盘后，爱奇艺公布2020年第四季度及2020财年业绩。财报显示：爱奇艺第四季度营收75亿元，市场预期74.84亿元，去年同期74.97亿元；净亏损15.49亿元，市场预期亏损18.84亿元，去年同期亏损24.95亿元；每ADS亏损2.1元，市场预期亏损2.44元，去年同期亏损3.43元。2020财年爱奇艺总收入为297亿元，其中会员服务、在线广告、内容发行和其他营收分别为165亿元、68亿元、27亿元和37亿元。同时，爱奇艺经营亏损和归属于爱奇艺的净亏损均出现大幅收窄，净亏损较2019年同期下降33亿元。在爱奇艺总体收入结构中，会员服务收入自2018年第三季度首超广告收入，已连续十个季度成为爱奇艺第一大收入支柱。截至2020年12月31日，订阅会员总数为1.017亿，较去年同期有所下降，与此同时爱奇艺2020年会员收入较去年同期增长14%，达165亿元。财报公布后，爱奇艺盘后股价跌逾9%。2020年第四季度财务业绩总收入达到75亿元（11亿美元），比2019年同期减少1％。会员服务收入为38亿元（5.878亿美元），较2019年同期减少1％。减少的主要原因订阅会员人数从一年前的1.069亿下降至1.017亿。在线广告服务收入为19亿元（2.849亿美元），比2019年同期减少1％。内容分发收入为人民币8.043亿元（1.233亿美元），较2019年同期减少8％。减少的主要原因是现金交易减少，但部分被易货交易增加抵消。其他收入为9.596亿元（1.471亿美元），比2019年同期增长10％，主要是由于某些业务线的增长。收入成本为68亿元人民币（10亿美元），较2019年同期减少了14％。收入成本的下降主要是由于本季度内容成本的减少。内容成本是收入成本的组成部分，51亿元（7.861亿美元），与2019年同期相比减少了10％。减少的主要原因是，制作内容的记录费用减少了，满足了多样化用户需求的长度较短的内容也有所增加，以及更新了未来收视率的会计估计内容资产的消费模式和使用寿命，以更好地反映这些内容资产的预期用途。销售，一般和管理费用为13亿元人民币（2.019亿美元），较2019年同期减少6％。这主要归因于营销支出减少。研发支出为663.4百万元（1.017亿美元），较2019年同期减少7％，主要是由于与人事有关的薪酬支出减少。营业亏损原为13亿元（2.004亿美元），相比之下，经营亏损25亿元营业亏损率为18％，而2019年同期营业亏损率为34％。其他费用总计为241.0百万元（3690万美元），与其他总收入相比人民币7530万元2019年同期。同比变化主要是由于汇兑收益减少。所得税前亏损为15亿元（2.373亿美元），与所得税前的亏损相比25亿元在2019年同期所得税收益原为人民币16.3百万 （250万美元），而所得税费用则为人民币22.6百万元在2019年同期爱奇艺应占净亏损为15亿元（2.372亿美元），而归属于爱奇艺的净亏损为25亿元2019年同期。归属于爱奇艺的每股美国存托凭证摊薄净亏损为人民币2.10（新台币$ 0.32元）相比2020年第四季度归属于爱奇艺的美国存托凭证摊薄净亏损人民币3.43在2019年同期作为2020年12月31日，公司有现金，现金等价物，限制现金和以下短期投资：143亿元人民币（22亿美元）。2020财年财务业绩总收入达到297亿元人民币（46亿美元），比2019年增长2％。会员服务收入为165亿元人民币（25亿美元），比2019年增长了14％。增长主要归因于Covid-19在2020年上半年拉动的订阅会员的增加，以及这一年我们推出的独家内容和各种运营计划。在线广告服务收入原为68亿元人民币（10亿美元），较2019年减少了18％。减少的主要原因是中国宏观经济环境充满挑战中国。内容分发收入原为27亿元人民币（4.077亿美元），比2019年增长5％。其他收入是37亿元人民币（5.723亿美元），从2019年起保持不变。收入成本原为279亿元人民币（43亿美元），较2019年减少8％。减少的主要原因是内容成本和其他成本项目减少。内容成本是收入成本的组成部分，209亿元人民币（32亿美元），与2019年相比下降了6％。下降的原因是，记录的制作内容支出减少，长度较短的内容满足了多样化用户的需求，以及更新了未来收视消费模式的会计估计和内容资产的使用寿命，以更好地反映这些内容资产的预期用途。销售，一般和管理费用为52亿元（7.951亿美元），比2019年减少了1％。这主要是由于减少了营销支出。研发支出为27亿元人民币（4.10亿美元），自2019年以来保持不变，主要是由于人事补偿的减少被股票薪酬费用的增加所抵消。营业亏损原为60亿元（9.257亿美元），相比之下，经营亏损93亿元人民币2019年的经营亏损率为20％，而2019年的经营亏损率为32％。其他费用总计为人民币9.434亿元（1.446亿美元），而与其他费用总额相比人民币967.1百万元在2019年。所得税前亏损为70亿元（11亿美元），与所得税前的亏损相比102亿元在2019年。所得税费用原为人民币2,330万元（360万美元），而所得税费用则为人民币51.9百万元在2019年。爱奇艺应占净亏损为70亿元（11亿美元），而归属于爱奇艺的净亏损为103亿元2019年。归属于爱奇艺的每股美国存托凭证摊薄净亏损为人民币9.52（US $ 1.47），相比之下，iQIYI每份ADS摊薄净亏损为人民币14.14在2019年。财务指导爱奇艺预计2021年第一季度的净收入总额将介于70.7亿元人民币（10.8亿美元） 和75.3亿元人民币（11.5亿美元），同比下降了8％至2％。该预测反映了爱奇艺当前和初步的观点，可能会发生变化。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1005,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382967297,"gmtCreate":1613351637819,"gmtModify":1704879978941,"author":{"id":"3574563059595551","authorId":"3574563059595551","name":"希菟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c99310785abc9b8abf540f583e93c89","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574563059595551","authorIdStr":"3574563059595551"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"………………","listText":"………………","text":"………………","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb0b74b5ee70e20218d882d9ec47b582","width":"1125","height":"2121"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/382967297","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":952,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382964845,"gmtCreate":1613351520387,"gmtModify":1704879977321,"author":{"id":"3574563059595551","authorId":"3574563059595551","name":"希菟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c99310785abc9b8abf540f583e93c89","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574563059595551","authorIdStr":"3574563059595551"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/382964845","repostId":"2111305003","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1109,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382964984,"gmtCreate":1613351500148,"gmtModify":1704879976998,"author":{"id":"3574563059595551","authorId":"3574563059595551","name":"希菟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c99310785abc9b8abf540f583e93c89","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574563059595551","authorIdStr":"3574563059595551"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"????","listText":"????","text":"????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/382964984","repostId":"2111070147","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2111070147","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613350823,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2111070147?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-15 09:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"New troubles of the \"bull market queen\": more money and less votes? Size is a problem in itself","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2111070147","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"“牛市女皇”Cathy Wood正面临幸福的烦恼——钱太多花不出去了。\n2月才过去半个月不到，木头姐的Ark基金规模就新增了70亿美金，几乎赶上了1月一个月新增的80亿美金。\n截至本周，Ark基金的规","content":"<p>Cathy Wood, the \"Queen of the Bull Market\", is facing the pains of happiness – too much money to spend.</p><p>Less than half a month after February, Sister Wood's Ark fund increased by 7 billion US dollars, almost catching up with the 8 billion US dollars added in January.</p><p>As of this week, the size of the Ark fund has soared to $58 billion. In January last year, the scale of all Ark's products was only $3.5 billion.</p><p>That is to say, in the past year or so, Sister Wood has increased the size of Ark fund by 15 times with her excellent performance, which is simply a miracle.</p><p>ETF fund expert Balchunas even optimistically predicts that Ark is on track to reach $136 billion in inflows this year, although many believe this is unlikely to happen.</p><p><h2>Size is a problem in itself</h2>However, the rapid expansion of the fund scale also made Sister Wood unexpected, and the scale itself was a problem.</p><p>When the fund size is small, Ark can choose the industries and companies they like at will, without worrying about the market capacity and its own volume.</p><p>However, with the growing size of the fund, Ark is gradually facing the dilemma of more money and less votes. There are only so many stocks on the market. Ark's style of investing in innovative companies also makes the stocks it sees often small.</p><p>The influx of billions or even tens of billions of money into these innovative companies is enough to raise the stock price in itself, and how to exit in the future is even more troublesome.</p><p>How to invest the continuous influx of funds not only tests Sister Wood's vision, but also tests the trading skills of Ark Fund.</p><p>According to data consolidated by Bloomberg, Ark Fund already owns more than 10% of equity in at least 24 companies.</p><p>Fortunately, judging from the situation last year, the rapid expansion of scale didn't bring many negative factors to Ark. Ark's five active funds all yielded more than 100%, during which fund ARKK due to successful bets<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The yield is as high as 164%, which is proud of US stocks.</p><p>Peter Garnry, an analyst at Saxo Bank, said in a recent study that as it gets bigger, Ark funds will face two potential risks:</p><p>First, the potential influence of Ark funds on the market is growing, and funds from Ark have fueled the biotech boom over the past few years. Once Ark funds start to exit, the valuation prices of related sectors face diving risks.</p><p>Second, once the tide subsides and the share price of the companies Ark invests in starts to fall, then the current positive feedback of \"share price rise-increase in size\" will turn into negative feedback.</p><p><h2>Ark's journey is the sea of stars</h2>However, a mere few tens of billions of dollars didn't seem to be enough to bother Sister Wood too much.</p><p>In response to the market's concerns about its scale, Sister Wood also responded in this week's online discussion. She pointed out that the market capitalization of many of the companies bought by Ark has expanded rapidly, which has helped alleviate concerns about fund size. Moreover, the current hot IPO market and the prosperity of SPAC backdoor listing also provide Ark with more investment options.</p><p>More importantly, Sister Wood has already set her sights on a broader field beyond Tesla. In the latest 2021 annual investment report, Sister Mu led her Ark research team to propose 15 grand and promising investment themes, covering deep learning, new generation gene sequencing, data center recreation, virtual world, etc. in addition to the well-known Bitcoin, electric vehicles and driverless driving.</p><p>Wall Street News has translated and compiled this annual report of ARK in detail. Interested readers can click here to check it out: \"Looking for the next Tesla skyrocketing miracle! ARK's\" Bull Queen \"Blockbuster Report: 15 Investment Opportunities in the Year of the Ox (Full Version)\".</p><p>In Ark's view, these themes are not only themes that can be focused on this year, but also have huge market and investment space in the next few years. For example, they believe that deep learning will add $30 trillion in market value to global stock markets over the next 15-20 years.</p><p>They anticipate that highly innovative and disruptive progress may occur or is occurring in some areas. Among them, Bitcoin may usher in a new era with institutions as the main investment force. The data center industry is undergoing an earth-shaking technological revolution. Digital wallets will fundamentally shake the status of traditional banks all over the world, and the sales of electric vehicles will soar 20 times...</p><p><b>In Sister Wood's view, mankind is on the eve of a new round of technological explosion. The steady influx of investors will provide more ammunition for Ark, who is ready to roll up her sleeves and go big.</b></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>New troubles of the \"bull market queen\": more money and less votes? Size is a problem in itself</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNew troubles of the \"bull market queen\": more money and less votes? Size is a problem in itself\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-15 09:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Cathy Wood, the \"Queen of the Bull Market\", is facing the pains of happiness – too much money to spend.</p><p>Less than half a month after February, Sister Wood's Ark fund increased by 7 billion US dollars, almost catching up with the 8 billion US dollars added in January.</p><p>As of this week, the size of the Ark fund has soared to $58 billion. In January last year, the scale of all Ark's products was only $3.5 billion.</p><p>That is to say, in the past year or so, Sister Wood has increased the size of Ark fund by 15 times with her excellent performance, which is simply a miracle.</p><p>ETF fund expert Balchunas even optimistically predicts that Ark is on track to reach $136 billion in inflows this year, although many believe this is unlikely to happen.</p><p><h2>Size is a problem in itself</h2>However, the rapid expansion of the fund scale also made Sister Wood unexpected, and the scale itself was a problem.</p><p>When the fund size is small, Ark can choose the industries and companies they like at will, without worrying about the market capacity and its own volume.</p><p>However, with the growing size of the fund, Ark is gradually facing the dilemma of more money and less votes. There are only so many stocks on the market. Ark's style of investing in innovative companies also makes the stocks it sees often small.</p><p>The influx of billions or even tens of billions of money into these innovative companies is enough to raise the stock price in itself, and how to exit in the future is even more troublesome.</p><p>How to invest the continuous influx of funds not only tests Sister Wood's vision, but also tests the trading skills of Ark Fund.</p><p>According to data consolidated by Bloomberg, Ark Fund already owns more than 10% of equity in at least 24 companies.</p><p>Fortunately, judging from the situation last year, the rapid expansion of scale didn't bring many negative factors to Ark. Ark's five active funds all yielded more than 100%, during which fund ARKK due to successful bets<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The yield is as high as 164%, which is proud of US stocks.</p><p>Peter Garnry, an analyst at Saxo Bank, said in a recent study that as it gets bigger, Ark funds will face two potential risks:</p><p>First, the potential influence of Ark funds on the market is growing, and funds from Ark have fueled the biotech boom over the past few years. Once Ark funds start to exit, the valuation prices of related sectors face diving risks.</p><p>Second, once the tide subsides and the share price of the companies Ark invests in starts to fall, then the current positive feedback of \"share price rise-increase in size\" will turn into negative feedback.</p><p><h2>Ark's journey is the sea of stars</h2>However, a mere few tens of billions of dollars didn't seem to be enough to bother Sister Wood too much.</p><p>In response to the market's concerns about its scale, Sister Wood also responded in this week's online discussion. She pointed out that the market capitalization of many of the companies bought by Ark has expanded rapidly, which has helped alleviate concerns about fund size. Moreover, the current hot IPO market and the prosperity of SPAC backdoor listing also provide Ark with more investment options.</p><p>More importantly, Sister Wood has already set her sights on a broader field beyond Tesla. In the latest 2021 annual investment report, Sister Mu led her Ark research team to propose 15 grand and promising investment themes, covering deep learning, new generation gene sequencing, data center recreation, virtual world, etc. in addition to the well-known Bitcoin, electric vehicles and driverless driving.</p><p>Wall Street News has translated and compiled this annual report of ARK in detail. Interested readers can click here to check it out: \"Looking for the next Tesla skyrocketing miracle! ARK's\" Bull Queen \"Blockbuster Report: 15 Investment Opportunities in the Year of the Ox (Full Version)\".</p><p>In Ark's view, these themes are not only themes that can be focused on this year, but also have huge market and investment space in the next few years. For example, they believe that deep learning will add $30 trillion in market value to global stock markets over the next 15-20 years.</p><p>They anticipate that highly innovative and disruptive progress may occur or is occurring in some areas. Among them, Bitcoin may usher in a new era with institutions as the main investment force. The data center industry is undergoing an earth-shaking technological revolution. Digital wallets will fundamentally shake the status of traditional banks all over the world, and the sales of electric vehicles will soar 20 times...</p><p><b>In Sister Wood's view, mankind is on the eve of a new round of technological explosion. The steady influx of investors will provide more ammunition for Ark, who is ready to roll up her sleeves and go big.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3620343\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fca8fb46987dd44f23033bff8816eaa7","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3620343","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2111070147","content_text":"“牛市女皇”Cathy Wood正面临幸福的烦恼——钱太多花不出去了。\n2月才过去半个月不到，木头姐的Ark基金规模就新增了70亿美金，几乎赶上了1月一个月新增的80亿美金。\n截至本周，Ark基金的规模已经飙升至580亿美元。而在去年1月，Ark旗下所有产品的规模才35亿美元。\n也就是说，在过去一年多的时间里，木头姐凭借其优异的业绩，让Ark基金规模已经增长了15倍，这简直是一个奇迹。\nETF基金专家Balchunas甚至乐观地预计，Ark今年的资金流入规模有望达到1360亿美元，尽管很多人认为这不太可能实现。\n规模本身就是个问题\n不过基金规模如此迅速的膨胀也让木头姐始料未及，规模本身就是个问题。\n在基金规模小的时候，Ark可以随心所欲的选择他们看中的行业和公司，无须担心市场容量和自身体量影响。\n但随着基金规模的日益壮大，Ark也逐渐面临了钱多票少的困境。市面上看中的股票就只有这么多。Ark投资创新型公司的风格，也使得其看中的股票体量往往不大。\n数十亿、甚至数百亿资金涌入这些创新型公司，本身就足以抬升股价，未来如何退出更是令人头疼。\n怎么把源源不断涌入的资金投出去，不仅考验木头姐的眼光，更考验Ark基金的操盘技巧。\n据彭博综合的数据，Ark基金已经至少拥有24家公司10%以上的股权。\n好在从去年一年的情况来看，规模的迅速膨胀并没有为Ark带来太多负面因素。Ark旗下的五只主动基金收益率全部超过100%，期间基金ARKK由于成功押注特斯拉，收益率更是高达164%，傲视美股。\n盛宝银行分析师Peter Garnry在最近研究中称，随着规模越来越大，Ark基金将面临两个潜在风险：\n第一，Ark基金对市场的潜在影响越来越大，过去几年来自Ark的基金助长了生物科技的热潮。一旦Ark资金开始退出，相关板块估值价格面临跳水风险。\n第二，一旦潮水褪去，Ark投资的公司股价开始下跌，那么当前的“股价上涨-规模增加”的正反馈将转为负反馈。\nArk的征途是星辰大海\n不过，区区几百亿美金似乎还不足以让木头姐感到太烦恼。\n对此市场对其规模的担忧，木头姐在本周的网上讨论中也做了回应。她指出，Ark购买的许多公司的市值规模迅速扩大，这有助于缓解大家对于基金规模的担忧。而且目前IPO市场火爆和SPAC借壳上市的兴旺也为Ark提供了更多投资选择。\n更重要的是，木头姐早已将眼光投向了特斯拉以外更广阔的领域。在最新发布的2021年年度投资报告中，木头姐带领她的Ark研究团队提出了15个宏大而前景广阔的投资主题，涉及的领域除了为人熟知的比特币、电动车、无人驾驶之外，还包括深度学习、新一代基因测序、数据中心再创造、虚拟世界等。\n华尔街见闻详细翻译整理了Ark的这篇年度报告，有兴趣的读者可以点击这里查看：《寻找下一个特斯拉暴涨奇迹！ARK“牛市女皇”重磅报告：牛年15大投资机会（完整版）》。\n在Ark看来，这些主题不仅仅是今年可以重点关注的主题，还在未来数年都拥有巨大的市场以及投资空间。比如，他们认为，深度学习将在未来15-20年里为全球股票市场增加30万亿美元的市值。\n他们预计某些领域可能将要或者正在出现极具创新力的颠覆性进展。其中，比特币可能迎来以机构作为投资主力的全新时代，数据中心产业正在经历一场翻天覆地式的技术革命，数字钱包将从根本上撼动全世界传统银行的地位，而电动车的销量将暴增20倍……\n在木头姐看来，人类正处在新一轮技术大爆炸的前夜。投资者源源不断涌入的资金将为Ark提供更多弹药，她已经准备好撸起袖子大干一场。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1103,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386446215,"gmtCreate":1613265187637,"gmtModify":1704879614809,"author":{"id":"3574563059595551","authorId":"3574563059595551","name":"希菟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c99310785abc9b8abf540f583e93c89","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574563059595551","authorIdStr":"3574563059595551"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSAC\">$Property Solutions Acquisition Corp(PSAC)$</a>??","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSAC\">$Property Solutions Acquisition Corp(PSAC)$</a>??","text":"$Property Solutions Acquisition Corp(PSAC)$??","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9e86906eb8d5282455397db1b494e26","width":"1284","height":"2223"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/386446215","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386448613,"gmtCreate":1613265020932,"gmtModify":1704879613340,"author":{"id":"3574563059595551","authorId":"3574563059595551","name":"希菟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c99310785abc9b8abf540f583e93c89","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574563059595551","authorIdStr":"3574563059595551"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"……","listText":"……","text":"……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/386448613","repostId":"1140942389","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140942389","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1612233347,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140942389?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-02 10:35","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: List of Main Market Closure Arrangements during the Spring Festival Holiday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140942389","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"春节假期即将来临，敬请广大投资者留意，提前做好资金安排。$老虎证券$祝您及家人新春快乐，牛年大吉！2月11日（星期四）除夕上午开市，下午休市；2月12日（星期五）至2月15日（星期一）全天休市；2月11日（星期四）至2月17日（星期三）休市，2月18日（星期四）起照常开市。CBOE 下 VIX 波动率期货于2月15日10：00提前休市。SGX下天然橡胶货于2021年2月11日以及2021年2月12日整个交易日休市。","content":"<p>The Spring Festival holiday is coming soon, so investors are requested to pay attention and make capital arrangements in advance.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">Tiger Brokers</a>I wish you and your family a happy new year and good luck in the year of the ox!</p><p>During the Spring Festival, the stock market closure arrangements in various places are as follows: (all are local time)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27cfee666051c46a31c824a795046629\" tg-width=\"1790\" tg-height=\"788\"></p><p><b>U.S. stocks:</b></p><p>On Monday, February 15, the market is closed all day for Presidents' Day.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>February 11th (Thursday) New Year's Eve the market opens in the morning and closes in the afternoon;</p><p>Closed all day from Friday, February 12 to Monday, February 15;</p><p>The market will open as usual from Tuesday, February 16.</p><p><b>A shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from Thursday, February 11 to Wednesday, February 17, and will open as usual from Thursday, February 18.</p><p><b>Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed Thursday, February 11 to Wednesday, February 17; Open as usual from Thursday, February 18.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Service will be closed from Tuesday, February 9 to Wednesday, February 17 and open as usual from Thursday, February 18.</p><p><b>UK shares:</b></p><p>Trading as usual</p><p><b>Australian stocks:</b></p><p>Trading as usual</p><p><b>Singapore Market:</b></p><p>Trading half day on Thursday, February 11th.</p><p>Closed all day on Friday, February 12th.</p><p><b>Futures markets:</b></p><p>Under HKEX, US dollar gold and index goods were closed at 12: 30 on February 11th, and individual stock futures were closed at 12: 00 on February 11th; Index futures, RMB, individual stock futures and US dollar gold were closed on February 12th and February 15th.</p><p>Foreign exchange, bonds, Bitcoin, stock index, energy and precious metal futures under GME Group will be closed early at 12: 00 on February 15th (02:00 am Beijing time on the 16th); Living livestock, large and small grains, and rice futures were closed all day on February 15th.</p><p>VIX volatility futures under CBOE closed early on February 15th at 10:00.</p><p>The natural rubber cargo under the SGX was closed for the entire trading day of February 11, 2021 and February 12, 2021.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: List of Main Market Closure Arrangements during the Spring Festival Holiday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: List of Main Market Closure Arrangements during the Spring Festival Holiday\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-02-02 10:35</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Spring Festival holiday is coming soon, so investors are requested to pay attention and make capital arrangements in advance.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">Tiger Brokers</a>I wish you and your family a happy new year and good luck in the year of the ox!</p><p>During the Spring Festival, the stock market closure arrangements in various places are as follows: (all are local time)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27cfee666051c46a31c824a795046629\" tg-width=\"1790\" tg-height=\"788\"></p><p><b>U.S. stocks:</b></p><p>On Monday, February 15, the market is closed all day for Presidents' Day.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>February 11th (Thursday) New Year's Eve the market opens in the morning and closes in the afternoon;</p><p>Closed all day from Friday, February 12 to Monday, February 15;</p><p>The market will open as usual from Tuesday, February 16.</p><p><b>A shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from Thursday, February 11 to Wednesday, February 17, and will open as usual from Thursday, February 18.</p><p><b>Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed Thursday, February 11 to Wednesday, February 17; Open as usual from Thursday, February 18.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Service will be closed from Tuesday, February 9 to Wednesday, February 17 and open as usual from Thursday, February 18.</p><p><b>UK shares:</b></p><p>Trading as usual</p><p><b>Australian stocks:</b></p><p>Trading as usual</p><p><b>Singapore Market:</b></p><p>Trading half day on Thursday, February 11th.</p><p>Closed all day on Friday, February 12th.</p><p><b>Futures markets:</b></p><p>Under HKEX, US dollar gold and index goods were closed at 12: 30 on February 11th, and individual stock futures were closed at 12: 00 on February 11th; Index futures, RMB, individual stock futures and US dollar gold were closed on February 12th and February 15th.</p><p>Foreign exchange, bonds, Bitcoin, stock index, energy and precious metal futures under GME Group will be closed early at 12: 00 on February 15th (02:00 am Beijing time on the 16th); Living livestock, large and small grains, and rice futures were closed all day on February 15th.</p><p>VIX volatility futures under CBOE closed early on February 15th at 10:00.</p><p>The natural rubber cargo under the SGX was closed for the entire trading day of February 11, 2021 and February 12, 2021.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8f89c8af2a895e609af6985ff4ae3ab","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140942389","content_text":"春节假期即将来临，敬请广大投资者留意，提前做好资金安排。老虎证券祝您及家人新春快乐，牛年大吉！春节期间各地股市休市安排如下：(均为当地时间）美股：2月15日（星期一）因美国总统日全天休市。港股：2月11日（星期四）除夕上午开市，下午休市；2月12日（星期五）至2月15日（星期一）全天休市；2月16日（星期二）起照常开市。A股：2月11日（星期四）至2月17日（星期三）休市，2月18日（星期四）起照常开市。沪、深股通：2月11日（星期四）至2月17日（星期三）关闭；2月18日（星期四）起照常开通。港股通：2月9日（星期二）至2月17日（星期三）关闭服务，2月18日（星期四）起照常开通。英股：照常交易澳股：照常交易新加坡市场：2月11日（星期四）交易半日。2月12日（星期五）全天休市。期货市场：HKEX下美元黄金、指数类货于2月11日12：30休市，个股期货于2月11日12：00休市；指数类期货、人民币、个股期货、美元黄金于2月12日以及2月15日整个交易日休市。GME Group下外汇、债券、比特币、股指、能源、贵金属期货于2月15日12：00（北京时间16日凌晨02:00）提前休市；活畜、大小谷物、稻谷期货于2月15日全天休市。CBOE 下 VIX 波动率期货于2月15日10：00提前休市。SGX下天然橡胶货于2021年2月11日以及2021年2月12日整个交易日休市。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386448864,"gmtCreate":1613265005158,"gmtModify":1704879613502,"author":{"id":"3574563059595551","authorId":"3574563059595551","name":"希菟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c99310785abc9b8abf540f583e93c89","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574563059595551","authorIdStr":"3574563059595551"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"........","listText":"........","text":"........","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/386448864","repostId":"1178592309","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178592309","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"全球第五大财经门户网站Investing.com中国官方微信，提供全球各国海量金融资讯和实时行情数据，包括股票股指、外汇、期货、基金、债券、加密货币等。关注全球金融市场动态的投资者千万不可错过。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"英为财情Investing","id":"92","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313"},"pubTimestamp":1613261148,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1178592309?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-14 08:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The rising U.S. stocks hide these two risks?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178592309","media":"英为财情Investing","summary":"在华盛顿可能推出的最新刺激计划利好下，美股连连报喜。然而，随着估值来到历史高位，长期美债收益率也持续上升，而且美元也持续走强。最近华尔街似乎出现了令人担忧的迹象。\n美元走强，周期股下跌：美股后市堪忧？","content":"<p>With the latest stimulus plan that Washington may launch, US stocks have repeatedly reported good news. However, as valuations reach historic highs, long-term U.S. bond yields continue to rise, and the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen. There seem to be worrying signs on Wall Street lately.</p><p><b>Dollar Strengthens, Cyclical Stocks Fall: US Stock Market Outlook Worrying?</b></p><p>On the one hand, the US dollar is higher, and on the other hand, cyclical sectors sensitive to the economy, such as industrial stocks and financial industries, have underperformed the broader market recently.</p><p>According to market data from Investing.com, the US Dollar Index has risen 1.46% since January 6, while the Industrial Sector Industrial Select Sector SPDR ® Fund (NYSE:XLI) and Banking Sector SPDR ® S&P Bank ETF (NYSE:KBE) The trend is 4 percentage points and 0.1 percentage points behind the S&P 500, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5cb6fe4fd755523d4e77103571d70e2\" tg-width=\"387\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>XLI, KBE, SPY, DXY Trend Comparison Chart from Investing.com</p><p>Typically, when the dollar is stronger, the overall performance of the stock market is weaker, because it means that global investors are expecting a weaker global economic outlook and are turning to safe-haven assets.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>If the United States strengthens significantly this year, it will, to some extent, run counter to our bullish stock market expectations, the strategists wrote in a note.</p><p>However, the current situation is quite special. Different from the past safe-haven demand, the current strength of the US dollar is more like that the recovery of the US economy in the \"post-epidemic\" era is stronger than that of other countries in Europe and America. Therefore, the interest rate in the United States is expected to rise faster than that in other countries in the next few years, so the demand for the US dollar is strong.</p><p>This all contributes to the strong performance of cyclical stocks.</p><p>Dennis DeBusschere, head of portfolio strategy research at Evercore, wrote in a note, \"If a stronger dollar is assumed to be based on improved growth prospects, then a weaker cyclical stock performance due to a stronger dollar represents a buying opportunity.\"</p><p>Yung Yu Ma, chief investment strategist of BMO Wealth Management, also pointed out: \"Don't sell cyclical stocks now because of the strength of the dollar. Industrial and financial stocks will perform well in the market outlook.\"</p><p>Some investors may think that industrial and financial stocks are not the best performing sectors in the market, but in fact, according to market data from Investing.com, the performance of these two sectors since September 23rd is remarkable. At that time, the new rally in the U.S. stock market depended on investors buying assets that would benefit from a stronger economy. Among them, the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund rose 19%, and the SPDR S&P Bank ETF rose 65% cumulatively.</p><p><b>What do rising interest rates mean for U.S. stocks?</b></p><p>According to the market information of Investing.com, the interest rates of 10-year and 30-year Treasury Bond in the United States have reached 1.19% and 1.94%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c0461f1f42c4f71a26bc9e2c3d0a508\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">U.S. 30-year yield moves, from Investing.com</p><p>Although, boosted by optimistic expectations of the U.S. economic outlook, the 30-year interest rate in the United States continued to rise overnight, once exceeding 2%. But overall, interest rates are still at historically low levels right now.</p><p>Generally speaking, interest rates and valuations show an inverse relationship, and the rise of real interest rates often depresses the valuation level of U.S. stocks. If the real interest rate goes down, the valuation level of U.S. stocks will rise. And interest rates are usually influenced by the U.S. economy itself and the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve.</p><p>First, in the short term, a Fed rate hike is unlikely. At present, the inflation level is far less than the 2% set by the Federal Reserve. New CPI data will be released on Wednesday, and investors need to pay close attention. In addition, the non-agricultural data released last Friday did not satisfy the market, which is expected to allow the government to introduce more stimulus policies, and at the same time provide data support for the Fed's continuous easing.</p><p>However, although the U.S. economy is still in the early stage of recovery and there is no overheating, the probability of rate hike by the Federal Reserve is low. But the market is still closely watching the timing of the Fed's exit from QE. At this time, the market was similar to the situation after the subprime mortgage crisis. At that time, although the US economy had not recovered, a large amount of hot money poured into the stock market, which led to the intensification of market risks. Subsequently, the Federal Reserve patrol gradually withdrew from QE. If this happens again, interest rates continue to rise, and cyclical industries will also see a sharp correction.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The rising U.S. stocks hide these two risks?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe rising U.S. stocks hide these two risks?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/92\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">英为财情Investing </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-02-14 08:05</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>With the latest stimulus plan that Washington may launch, US stocks have repeatedly reported good news. However, as valuations reach historic highs, long-term U.S. bond yields continue to rise, and the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen. There seem to be worrying signs on Wall Street lately.</p><p><b>Dollar Strengthens, Cyclical Stocks Fall: US Stock Market Outlook Worrying?</b></p><p>On the one hand, the US dollar is higher, and on the other hand, cyclical sectors sensitive to the economy, such as industrial stocks and financial industries, have underperformed the broader market recently.</p><p>According to market data from Investing.com, the US Dollar Index has risen 1.46% since January 6, while the Industrial Sector Industrial Select Sector SPDR ® Fund (NYSE:XLI) and Banking Sector SPDR ® S&P Bank ETF (NYSE:KBE) The trend is 4 percentage points and 0.1 percentage points behind the S&P 500, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5cb6fe4fd755523d4e77103571d70e2\" tg-width=\"387\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>XLI, KBE, SPY, DXY Trend Comparison Chart from Investing.com</p><p>Typically, when the dollar is stronger, the overall performance of the stock market is weaker, because it means that global investors are expecting a weaker global economic outlook and are turning to safe-haven assets.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>If the United States strengthens significantly this year, it will, to some extent, run counter to our bullish stock market expectations, the strategists wrote in a note.</p><p>However, the current situation is quite special. Different from the past safe-haven demand, the current strength of the US dollar is more like that the recovery of the US economy in the \"post-epidemic\" era is stronger than that of other countries in Europe and America. Therefore, the interest rate in the United States is expected to rise faster than that in other countries in the next few years, so the demand for the US dollar is strong.</p><p>This all contributes to the strong performance of cyclical stocks.</p><p>Dennis DeBusschere, head of portfolio strategy research at Evercore, wrote in a note, \"If a stronger dollar is assumed to be based on improved growth prospects, then a weaker cyclical stock performance due to a stronger dollar represents a buying opportunity.\"</p><p>Yung Yu Ma, chief investment strategist of BMO Wealth Management, also pointed out: \"Don't sell cyclical stocks now because of the strength of the dollar. Industrial and financial stocks will perform well in the market outlook.\"</p><p>Some investors may think that industrial and financial stocks are not the best performing sectors in the market, but in fact, according to market data from Investing.com, the performance of these two sectors since September 23rd is remarkable. At that time, the new rally in the U.S. stock market depended on investors buying assets that would benefit from a stronger economy. Among them, the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund rose 19%, and the SPDR S&P Bank ETF rose 65% cumulatively.</p><p><b>What do rising interest rates mean for U.S. stocks?</b></p><p>According to the market information of Investing.com, the interest rates of 10-year and 30-year Treasury Bond in the United States have reached 1.19% and 1.94%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c0461f1f42c4f71a26bc9e2c3d0a508\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">U.S. 30-year yield moves, from Investing.com</p><p>Although, boosted by optimistic expectations of the U.S. economic outlook, the 30-year interest rate in the United States continued to rise overnight, once exceeding 2%. But overall, interest rates are still at historically low levels right now.</p><p>Generally speaking, interest rates and valuations show an inverse relationship, and the rise of real interest rates often depresses the valuation level of U.S. stocks. If the real interest rate goes down, the valuation level of U.S. stocks will rise. And interest rates are usually influenced by the U.S. economy itself and the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve.</p><p>First, in the short term, a Fed rate hike is unlikely. At present, the inflation level is far less than the 2% set by the Federal Reserve. New CPI data will be released on Wednesday, and investors need to pay close attention. In addition, the non-agricultural data released last Friday did not satisfy the market, which is expected to allow the government to introduce more stimulus policies, and at the same time provide data support for the Fed's continuous easing.</p><p>However, although the U.S. economy is still in the early stage of recovery and there is no overheating, the probability of rate hike by the Federal Reserve is low. But the market is still closely watching the timing of the Fed's exit from QE. At this time, the market was similar to the situation after the subprime mortgage crisis. At that time, although the US economy had not recovered, a large amount of hot money poured into the stock market, which led to the intensification of market risks. Subsequently, the Federal Reserve patrol gradually withdrew from QE. If this happens again, interest rates continue to rise, and cyclical industries will also see a sharp correction.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178592309","content_text":"在华盛顿可能推出的最新刺激计划利好下，美股连连报喜。然而，随着估值来到历史高位，长期美债收益率也持续上升，而且美元也持续走强。最近华尔街似乎出现了令人担忧的迹象。\n美元走强，周期股下跌：美股后市堪忧？\n一方面美元走高，另一方面对经济敏感的周期性板块，如工业股和金融行业等，近期股价表现逊于大盘。\n根据英为财情Investing.com的行情数据显示，1月6日以来，美元指数累计上涨了1.46%，而与此同时，工业板块Industrial Select Sector SPDR® Fund (NYSE:XLI)和银行板块SPDR® S&P Bank ETF (NYSE:KBE)的走势分别落后标普500指数4个百分点和0.1个百分点。\n\nXLI、KBE、SPY、DXY走势对比图，来自英为财情Investing.com\n通常情况下，美元走强时，股市整体表现会较为弱势，因为这意味着全球投资者预期全球经济前景走软，并且纷纷转向了避险资产。摩根大通的策略师在一份报告中写道，如果美国今年明显走强，在某种程度上，这将会和我们看涨股市的预期背道而驰。\n不过，眼下的情况比较特殊，不同以往的避险需求，美元此刻走强更像是因为美国经济在“后疫情”时代的复苏要强于欧美其他国家，因此美国未来几年的利率上升速度预期快于其他国家，所以美元需求旺盛。\n这一切都有助于周期性股票的强劲表现。\nEvercore的投资组合策略研究主管Dennis DeBusschere在一份报告中写道，\"如果假设美元走强是基于增长前景改善，那么，在美元走强而导致的周期性股票表现疲弱时，则代表的是买入机会。\"\nBMO财富管理首席投资策略师Yung Yu Ma也指出：“现在不要因为美元走强而抛售周期性的股票，工业和金融类股后市将表现良好。”\n有一些投资者可能会认为工业股和金融股并非市场中表现最好的板块，但是，事实上，根据英为财情Investing.com的行情数据显示，9月23日以来，这两个板块的表现可圈可点。彼时，美国股市的新一轮上涨，就有赖于投资者纷纷买入那些会受益于经济走强的资产。其中，Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund上涨19%，SPDR S&P Bank ETF更是累计上涨了65%。\n利率上行对美股意味着什么?\n根据英为财情Investing.com的行情信息显示，目前美国十年期和30年期国债的利率已经来到1.19%和1.94%的水平。\n美国30年期收益率走势，来自英为财情Investing.com\n虽然，受到对美国经济后市前景的乐观预期助推，隔夜美国三十年期利率持续走高，一度突破2%。但是总体而言，目前利率仍然处于历史低位。\n一般来说，利率和估值呈现的是反向关系，实际利率的走高往往会压低美股的估值水平。而如果实际利率下行，美股的估值水平会升高。而利率通常受到美国经济本身和美联储的货币政策影响。\n首先，短期内，美联储加息的可能性不大。目前通胀水平远不及美联储设定的2%，周三将会有新的CPI数据公布，投资者也需要密切关注。另外，上周五公布的非农数据并不让市场满意，这有望让政府出台更多刺激政策的同时，也会为美联储持续宽松提供数据支撑。\n不过，虽然美国经济尚处于复苏初期，不存在过热的情况，美联储加息的概率较低。但是市场仍然密切关注美联储退出QE的时机。此时市场和次贷危机后的情况有所类似，彼时，虽然美国经济仍未恢复，但是大量热钱涌入股票市场，导致市场风险加剧，随后，美联储巡捕逐渐退出QE。如果这样的情况再次发生，利率持续上行，周期性行业也会出现大幅回调的情况。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1078,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386631860,"gmtCreate":1613168851750,"gmtModify":1704879132824,"author":{"id":"3574563059595551","authorId":"3574563059595551","name":"希菟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c99310785abc9b8abf540f583e93c89","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574563059595551","authorIdStr":"3574563059595551"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WOOF\">$Petco Health and Wellness Company, Inc.(WOOF)$</a>?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WOOF\">$Petco Health and Wellness Company, Inc.(WOOF)$</a>?","text":"$Petco Health and Wellness Company, Inc.(WOOF)$?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52ff255e3b3039a0aae031e9f35a978e","width":"1284","height":"2457"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/386631860","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1435,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383910779,"gmtCreate":1612828568191,"gmtModify":1704874674003,"author":{"id":"3574563059595551","authorId":"3574563059595551","name":"希菟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c99310785abc9b8abf540f583e93c89","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574563059595551","authorIdStr":"3574563059595551"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"........","listText":"........","text":"........","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b051e5946b25f706d8607a7e6f5513d","width":"1125","height":"3414"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/383910779","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":951,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389120731,"gmtCreate":1612740434923,"gmtModify":1704873671771,"author":{"id":"3574563059595551","authorId":"3574563059595551","name":"希菟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c99310785abc9b8abf540f583e93c89","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574563059595551","authorIdStr":"3574563059595551"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;........","listText":"&nbsp;........","text":"........","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/389120731","repostId":"1153236252","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153236252","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612685574,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153236252?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-07 16:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"A new round of fiscal stimulus in the United States is approaching, the latest progress and potential impact","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153236252","media":" Kevin策略研究","summary":"摘要\n上周五，拜登一直努力推动的1.9万亿美元新一轮财政刺激有了新进展。民主党在国会参众两院通过预算调节程序，可以绕开共和党直接以51票简单多数在参议院通过财政救助内容。从目前进展看，我们预期新一轮财","content":"<p><b>Abstract</b></p><p>On Friday, the new $1.9 trillion round of fiscal stimulus that Biden has been pushing so hard saw new progress. By passing the budget adjustment process in both houses of Congress, Democrats can bypass the Republican Party and pass the financial bailout content directly in the Senate with a simple majority of 51 votes. From the current progress,<b>We expect that the new round of fiscal stimulus may be officially passed in the next few weeks, but the final scale may still be uncertain.</b></p><p>Previously, the market generally expected that Biden and the Democratic Party would \"win over\" the support of some Republican lawmakers, and the final compromise might be smaller than $1.9 trillion.<b>Therefore, if the $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus is \"forced\" through, it will be beyond market expectations.</b></p><p>The launch of a new round of fiscal stimulus is of great significance to the growth of the United States itself, U.S. assets (U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds and U.S. dollars), as well as the political landscape and some fiscal and tax-related policies. Specifically,</p><p><b>i. Policy implications:</b>The use of the budget adjustment process means the temporary failure of bipartisanship; At the same time, Biden's large-scale infrastructure plans and tax hikes may also have to be relatively pushed back</p><p><b>ii. Economic implications:</b>growth or face upside risks; The introduction of a new round of fiscal stimulus will help increase residents' disposable income, which in turn will partly boost consumption and real estate spending, or partly spill over to capital markets</p><p><b>iii. Market implications:</b>Overall good for U.S. stock markets, US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>Focus discussion: The latest progress and potential impact of the new round of fiscal stimulus in the United States</b></p><p>On Friday, the new $1.9 trillion round of fiscal stimulus that Biden has been pushing so hard saw new progress. Democrats passed a Budget resolution in both houses of Congress to push for Budget Reconciliation.</p><p>Under this procedural framework, Democrats can bypass the Republican Filibuster (another 60 votes are needed to end this process) and directly pass the contents of the new round of fiscal relief bills in the Senate with a simple majority of 51 votes (according to Congressional rules of procedure, some measures that have an impact on the budget can be passed with a simple majority under the budget reconciliation process framework, but there is a limit on the number of passes per fiscal year. For a detailed analysis of this issue, please refer to our previous report \"How Effective Can the Senate Be After the Democratic Sweep?\").</p><p>Previously, the market generally expected that Biden and the Democratic Party would \"win over\" the support of some Republican lawmakers, and the final compromise might be smaller than $1.9 trillion.<b>Therefore, if the $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus is \"forced\" through, it will be beyond market expectations.</b>Judging from the current progress, combined with the upcoming impeachment trial against Trump,<b>We expect that a new round of fiscal stimulus may be officially passed in the next few weeks.</b></p><p>We believe that the launch of a new round of fiscal stimulus is of great significance to the growth of the United States itself, U.S. assets (U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds and U.S. dollars), as well as the political landscape and some future fiscal and tax-related policies, and deserves close attention.</p><p>In particular,</p><p><b>i. Policy implications: The use of the budget adjustment process means the temporary failure of bipartisanship; At the same time, Biden's large-scale infrastructure plan and tax increase policy will also be relatively postponed.</b></p><p>Previously, Biden and Democrats once hoped to \"win\" the support of some Republicans to fulfill their promise to bridge the fragmentation and division within the United States after taking office, or vote on the part of the new round of fiscal stimulus that can get Republican support first, and then use the budget adjustment process for other parts later. But obviously, this approach won't work. Because the $618 billion stimulus package advocated by Republicans is too different to be bridged in the short term. So Biden and Democrats decided not to wait, instead choosing to \"force\" their stimulus through the budget adjustment process.</p><p><b>The choice is both a sign of the urgency of a new round of fiscal stimulus in the eyes of Biden and Democrats and a temporary failure of hopes for bipartisanship</b>。 After the election, the balance of power between the two parties in Congress has not expanded but further divided. Coupled with differences and even oppositions on some key issues, Biden's desire to bridge the opposition between the two parties after the election is not so easy to realize. Of course, Democrats still dominate some agendas that require a simple majority (such as the confirmation of official nominations and budget reconciliation processes).</p><p>In addition, due to the limitation of the number of times the budget adjustment procedure can be used,<b>So prioritizing the budget adjustment process for fiscal stimulus means that Biden's massive infrastructure and tax hikes could be delayed</b>For specific progress, you can pay attention to Biden's budget for the next fiscal year, which is similar to the situation when Trump used the budget adjustment process to pass tax reform after the new fiscal year at the end of 2017 (starting in October). In a certain sense, this is not a bad thing for the market. After all, it can alleviate the market's worries about tax increases in the short term.</p><p><b>ii. Economic implications: growth faces upside risks; The introduction of a new round of fiscal stimulus will help increase residents' disposable income, which in turn will partially boost consumption and real estate spending.</b></p><p><b>From scale</b>If this round of $190 million stimulus can be fully passed and superimposed on the $900 billion stimulus that has been passed by the end of 2020, the stimulus scale will be as high as $2.8 trillion, which is basically equivalent to the $3.1 trillion stimulus scale passed by the CAREs Act in April 2020 during the worst period of the epidemic.</p><p><i>Chart 1: On the basis of the $900 billion second wave of anti-epidemic stimulus passed at the end of last year, the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate passed budget measures, and Biden's 1.9 trillion stimulus package entered the fast track for approval</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21475c3e3fa3b6c3e810118895f38021\" tg-width=\"833\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In terms of content,</b>Although the final result has yet to be finalized, the new round of stimulus will mainly include an increase of $1,400 in direct subsidies for low-income families and individuals ($600 in the previous round), and an increase in unemployment assistance to $400 per week and an extension until September (the previous round was $300 per week and the deadline was March); It also includes funding for vaccines and state governments. Minimum wage increases may not be one of them, though.</p><p><i>Chart 2: Direct subsidies for low-income families and individuals increased by $1,400, while unemployment benefits were increased to $400 a week and extended through September</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c1613bdf2740e0c658bad712f82979b\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Referring to the experience of the first round of stimulus from April to July last year,<b>It is not difficult to see that the new round of stimulus will have a certain positive effect on increasing residents' disposable income, thus stimulating consumption and real estate expenditure. Of course, given the base effect and the delayed nature of durable goods consumption, we think the overall effect may not be as strong as last year's first round, but it may still be considerable</b>。</p><p>According to the calculation of the Wharton Business School Budget Model (PWBM) [1], if the subsidies for low-income people are still paid with the same standard, then 27% of the new round of financial subsidies will be converted into consumption expenditure, and the rest will be converted into savings. The lower the income people, the more they spend. In fact, at the end of last year, the $900 billion fiscal stimulus seemed to have shown an \"immediate effect\". In December, the savings rate of American residents climbed to 13.7% again, which is still much higher than the normal level of 6~8% before the epidemic.</p><p><i>Chart 3: The savings rate of U.S. residents climbed again to 13.7% in December, which is still well above the pre-pandemic normal level of 6-8%</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/139e8af334a0a62af713aada3b05b39c\" tg-width=\"816\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Chart 4: The new round of stimulus will have a certain positive effect on boosting residents' disposable income, which in turn will stimulate consumption and real estate spending</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e72337f2c9d013ed881671ccf3574d2\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Chart 5: Considering the base effect and the delay in durable goods consumption, the overall effect will not be as strong as last year's first round, but it may still be considerable</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a4af6b407adc9a03e21729cf47bb78d\" tg-width=\"833\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>A new round of fiscal stimulus is superimposed on the current continuous decline of the epidemic situation (the daily increase has dropped to about 130,000) and the continuous promotion of vaccination (at present, a total of 35.2 million doses have been vaccinated, and 1.29 million doses have been vaccinated daily).<b>It may make U.S. growth and inflation face certain upside risks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23b14cfc520a9c4910771ccdb8471725\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9d5ba835d5ec4e5be6d34fc23a125be\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de06cc1674b27a0c5763dbb5a3810f3\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf1641a4feaee7a64d7b25d90d65f947\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eec99fab3a524a25d73bb6c951d49b37\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cb9ab14143628624599460232e4a81d\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/481f33b2377fc11ebebc46c19ac598a4\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>iii. Market implications: overall positive for U.S. stocks, US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index; Fiscal transfer payments may also partly spill over to the capital market.</b></p><p>From the perspective of asset prices, under the background of overall epidemic prevention and control and smooth vaccination, we believe that the launch of a new round of fiscal stimulus will have a supporting effect on U.S. assets including the U.S. stock market, US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index:</p><p><b>1) US Treasury yields:</b>A new round of fiscal stimulus brings positive growth prospects and inflation expectations will push US Treasury yields higher. The static level of our estimated 10-year U.S. bond interest rate is about 1.5%.</p><p><b>2) US stock market:</b>The upward discount rate and capital cost of the upward interest rate will have a negative effect on the market valuation. However, under the background that the interest rate level is not so high (the current real interest rate is still obviously in the negative range, -1.04%) and the upward speed is moderate, we expect that the final performance of the market will still reflect the effect of risk appetite improvement and profit repair. According to the static historical experience, the threshold of interest rate on valuation is about 1.8~2%. (\"After the 10-year U.S. bond rate rose above 1.1%\").</p><p><b>3) the US Dollar Index:</b>The new fiscal stimulus in the United States and the slow pace of vaccination in the United States are in strong contrast with the progress in Europe (Germany only vaccinated 2.99 million doses, and the daily vaccination of 104,000 doses is less than one tenth of that in the United States), which in turn widens the expected \"scissors gap\" between the United States and Europe in the short term, so it may continue to support the US dollar in the short term. From the trading level, the short position of the US Dollar Index is still at a historical low.</p><p>Of course, it should be noted that the increase of residents' disposable income under further transfer payment may also partially spill over to the stock market, and bring a certain leverage impulse under the profit-making effect. Therefore, while providing liquidity for the market, it is also necessary to pay attention to the decline and fluctuation of market excitement (\"How to monitor the heat, leverage and liquidity of the US stock market?\").</p><p><i>Chart 6: A new round of stimulus and the still large supply-demand gap in the United States may push inflation higher and even have upside risks</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ae5781379cf2ff751fe9ee56197a700\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"502\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Chart 7: Against this background, the long-term interest rate of U.S. debt may continue to rise. We estimate that the static level of the 10-year U.S. bond interest rate is around 1.5%, but the real interest rate is still negative</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf9c11650a93b477341998e94f100646\" tg-width=\"890\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Chart 8: However, against the backdrop of less high interest rates and moderate upward pace, we expect that the market will still end up with improved risk appetite and earnings repair</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a06ba2e09f49e16268b4c4cea8708eb\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Chart 9: According to the static historical experience, the threshold of interest rate impact on valuation is about 1.8~2%</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a1694c8faa0fbf4a7ccb37d16ab50bb\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Chart 10: According to IMF statistics, the current fiscal response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States accounts for 16.7% of GDP, far more than other European countries</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b0293ee55513bcf4a5f06d67fd6c13b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Chart 11: U.S. Stock Market Bullish Option Products Open Positions Surge in the Second Half of 2020</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8187f6b2c95d0206140fe6e685aa3f\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Chart 12: US equity financing balance also climbed sharply, climbing to all-time highs</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bd9e456e2bcd422609c7d914a829969\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"647\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Market Dynamics: Market Rebounds, Dollar Higher; U.S. Nonfarm and PMI Missed Expectations</b></p><p>►<b>Asset performance: bulk> shares> debt; Markets Rally, Rates Lift, Dollar Higher</b>。 Under US dollar pricing, the major assets are ranked as bulk> shares> bonds; Natural gas, India, Brazil, crude oil, FAAMNG, South Korea, US stocks, etc. lead; VIX bulls, gold, bonds and more fell. At the sector level, except for the slight decline in biotechnology, all sectors of U.S. stocks rose, with media, banking and energy leading the gains. US Treasury yields lifts, spreads narrow. the US Dollar Index continues to move higher.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce4ab9b7d84d8fe1ddcef9814f3c4a7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/597c375f2ba7ba44f47b3a073533d94c\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3129cca188803da67680a37f11851fa1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>►<b>Sentiment Positions: VIX Pulls Back, Crude Overbought, Dollar Shorts Increase</b>。 Over the past week, VIX has retreated and crude oil has entered overbought territory. In addition, speculative short positions in the US dollar increased slightly and remained at an all-time high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6e25309b055c7d8213f4d481eb47461\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d404df5ea033a1d724955f9a089c91e0\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a70bcadcdd3b283923ea68e9e7c66f1\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>►<b>Capital Flow: U.S. Stocks Turn to Outflow, Emerging Continues to Inflow</b>。 Last week, U.S. stocks turned into outflows, and developed Europe, Japan and emerging markets continued to flow in, but slowed down slightly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e6a68b3e562df34e6401f2d66d5067\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>►<b>Fundamentals and policy: January non-farm and ISM PMI fell short of expectations.</b>In January, the United States created 49,000 non-farm jobs, which was less than expected (50,000), but the unemployment rate continued to fall to 6.3%; Additionally, the ISM Manufacturing PMI fell back to 58.7% in January from the previous month, but remained strong. The adjustment sentiment of stock market earnings forecasts in all major markets has improved. At present, 56% of S&P 500 companies have disclosed their fourth-quarter results, and Factset expects the fourth-quarter EPS growth rate to be 1.66% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ca6aa1f80d0da197c4af456f9160c49\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e098e4dc1edbc5da6f83702c94ed51d9\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2761d3faf07bd6549f3567335af7a00c\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59938f008e8e1e2fe33f3db508939c56\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>►<b>Market Valuations: Major Market Valuations Elevate Slightly</b>。 At present, the dynamic PE of US stocks rose to 22.3 times in December, while the static P/E of 31.8 times was significantly higher than the reasonable level (~28.0 times) that can be supported by growth (ISM manufacturing PMI =58.7 in January) and liquidity (10-year US bond interest rate 1.16%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdc039b9a3c23ee3ff1fbe751b0f80d1\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b0d3b0cc01d333b35eb5a3492edf4c6\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"kevinclyj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A new round of fiscal stimulus in the United States is approaching, the latest progress and potential impact</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA new round of fiscal stimulus in the United States is approaching, the latest progress and potential impact\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\"> Kevin策略研究</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-07 16:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Abstract</b></p><p>On Friday, the new $1.9 trillion round of fiscal stimulus that Biden has been pushing so hard saw new progress. By passing the budget adjustment process in both houses of Congress, Democrats can bypass the Republican Party and pass the financial bailout content directly in the Senate with a simple majority of 51 votes. From the current progress,<b>We expect that the new round of fiscal stimulus may be officially passed in the next few weeks, but the final scale may still be uncertain.</b></p><p>Previously, the market generally expected that Biden and the Democratic Party would \"win over\" the support of some Republican lawmakers, and the final compromise might be smaller than $1.9 trillion.<b>Therefore, if the $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus is \"forced\" through, it will be beyond market expectations.</b></p><p>The launch of a new round of fiscal stimulus is of great significance to the growth of the United States itself, U.S. assets (U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds and U.S. dollars), as well as the political landscape and some fiscal and tax-related policies. Specifically,</p><p><b>i. Policy implications:</b>The use of the budget adjustment process means the temporary failure of bipartisanship; At the same time, Biden's large-scale infrastructure plans and tax hikes may also have to be relatively pushed back</p><p><b>ii. Economic implications:</b>growth or face upside risks; The introduction of a new round of fiscal stimulus will help increase residents' disposable income, which in turn will partly boost consumption and real estate spending, or partly spill over to capital markets</p><p><b>iii. Market implications:</b>Overall good for U.S. stock markets, US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>Focus discussion: The latest progress and potential impact of the new round of fiscal stimulus in the United States</b></p><p>On Friday, the new $1.9 trillion round of fiscal stimulus that Biden has been pushing so hard saw new progress. Democrats passed a Budget resolution in both houses of Congress to push for Budget Reconciliation.</p><p>Under this procedural framework, Democrats can bypass the Republican Filibuster (another 60 votes are needed to end this process) and directly pass the contents of the new round of fiscal relief bills in the Senate with a simple majority of 51 votes (according to Congressional rules of procedure, some measures that have an impact on the budget can be passed with a simple majority under the budget reconciliation process framework, but there is a limit on the number of passes per fiscal year. For a detailed analysis of this issue, please refer to our previous report \"How Effective Can the Senate Be After the Democratic Sweep?\").</p><p>Previously, the market generally expected that Biden and the Democratic Party would \"win over\" the support of some Republican lawmakers, and the final compromise might be smaller than $1.9 trillion.<b>Therefore, if the $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus is \"forced\" through, it will be beyond market expectations.</b>Judging from the current progress, combined with the upcoming impeachment trial against Trump,<b>We expect that a new round of fiscal stimulus may be officially passed in the next few weeks.</b></p><p>We believe that the launch of a new round of fiscal stimulus is of great significance to the growth of the United States itself, U.S. assets (U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds and U.S. dollars), as well as the political landscape and some future fiscal and tax-related policies, and deserves close attention.</p><p>In particular,</p><p><b>i. Policy implications: The use of the budget adjustment process means the temporary failure of bipartisanship; At the same time, Biden's large-scale infrastructure plan and tax increase policy will also be relatively postponed.</b></p><p>Previously, Biden and Democrats once hoped to \"win\" the support of some Republicans to fulfill their promise to bridge the fragmentation and division within the United States after taking office, or vote on the part of the new round of fiscal stimulus that can get Republican support first, and then use the budget adjustment process for other parts later. But obviously, this approach won't work. Because the $618 billion stimulus package advocated by Republicans is too different to be bridged in the short term. So Biden and Democrats decided not to wait, instead choosing to \"force\" their stimulus through the budget adjustment process.</p><p><b>The choice is both a sign of the urgency of a new round of fiscal stimulus in the eyes of Biden and Democrats and a temporary failure of hopes for bipartisanship</b>。 After the election, the balance of power between the two parties in Congress has not expanded but further divided. Coupled with differences and even oppositions on some key issues, Biden's desire to bridge the opposition between the two parties after the election is not so easy to realize. Of course, Democrats still dominate some agendas that require a simple majority (such as the confirmation of official nominations and budget reconciliation processes).</p><p>In addition, due to the limitation of the number of times the budget adjustment procedure can be used,<b>So prioritizing the budget adjustment process for fiscal stimulus means that Biden's massive infrastructure and tax hikes could be delayed</b>For specific progress, you can pay attention to Biden's budget for the next fiscal year, which is similar to the situation when Trump used the budget adjustment process to pass tax reform after the new fiscal year at the end of 2017 (starting in October). In a certain sense, this is not a bad thing for the market. After all, it can alleviate the market's worries about tax increases in the short term.</p><p><b>ii. Economic implications: growth faces upside risks; The introduction of a new round of fiscal stimulus will help increase residents' disposable income, which in turn will partially boost consumption and real estate spending.</b></p><p><b>From scale</b>If this round of $190 million stimulus can be fully passed and superimposed on the $900 billion stimulus that has been passed by the end of 2020, the stimulus scale will be as high as $2.8 trillion, which is basically equivalent to the $3.1 trillion stimulus scale passed by the CAREs Act in April 2020 during the worst period of the epidemic.</p><p><i>Chart 1: On the basis of the $900 billion second wave of anti-epidemic stimulus passed at the end of last year, the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate passed budget measures, and Biden's 1.9 trillion stimulus package entered the fast track for approval</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21475c3e3fa3b6c3e810118895f38021\" tg-width=\"833\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In terms of content,</b>Although the final result has yet to be finalized, the new round of stimulus will mainly include an increase of $1,400 in direct subsidies for low-income families and individuals ($600 in the previous round), and an increase in unemployment assistance to $400 per week and an extension until September (the previous round was $300 per week and the deadline was March); It also includes funding for vaccines and state governments. Minimum wage increases may not be one of them, though.</p><p><i>Chart 2: Direct subsidies for low-income families and individuals increased by $1,400, while unemployment benefits were increased to $400 a week and extended through September</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c1613bdf2740e0c658bad712f82979b\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Referring to the experience of the first round of stimulus from April to July last year,<b>It is not difficult to see that the new round of stimulus will have a certain positive effect on increasing residents' disposable income, thus stimulating consumption and real estate expenditure. Of course, given the base effect and the delayed nature of durable goods consumption, we think the overall effect may not be as strong as last year's first round, but it may still be considerable</b>。</p><p>According to the calculation of the Wharton Business School Budget Model (PWBM) [1], if the subsidies for low-income people are still paid with the same standard, then 27% of the new round of financial subsidies will be converted into consumption expenditure, and the rest will be converted into savings. The lower the income people, the more they spend. In fact, at the end of last year, the $900 billion fiscal stimulus seemed to have shown an \"immediate effect\". In December, the savings rate of American residents climbed to 13.7% again, which is still much higher than the normal level of 6~8% before the epidemic.</p><p><i>Chart 3: The savings rate of U.S. residents climbed again to 13.7% in December, which is still well above the pre-pandemic normal level of 6-8%</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/139e8af334a0a62af713aada3b05b39c\" tg-width=\"816\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Chart 4: The new round of stimulus will have a certain positive effect on boosting residents' disposable income, which in turn will stimulate consumption and real estate spending</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e72337f2c9d013ed881671ccf3574d2\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Chart 5: Considering the base effect and the delay in durable goods consumption, the overall effect will not be as strong as last year's first round, but it may still be considerable</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a4af6b407adc9a03e21729cf47bb78d\" tg-width=\"833\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>A new round of fiscal stimulus is superimposed on the current continuous decline of the epidemic situation (the daily increase has dropped to about 130,000) and the continuous promotion of vaccination (at present, a total of 35.2 million doses have been vaccinated, and 1.29 million doses have been vaccinated daily).<b>It may make U.S. growth and inflation face certain upside risks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23b14cfc520a9c4910771ccdb8471725\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9d5ba835d5ec4e5be6d34fc23a125be\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de06cc1674b27a0c5763dbb5a3810f3\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf1641a4feaee7a64d7b25d90d65f947\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eec99fab3a524a25d73bb6c951d49b37\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cb9ab14143628624599460232e4a81d\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/481f33b2377fc11ebebc46c19ac598a4\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>iii. Market implications: overall positive for U.S. stocks, US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index; Fiscal transfer payments may also partly spill over to the capital market.</b></p><p>From the perspective of asset prices, under the background of overall epidemic prevention and control and smooth vaccination, we believe that the launch of a new round of fiscal stimulus will have a supporting effect on U.S. assets including the U.S. stock market, US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index:</p><p><b>1) US Treasury yields:</b>A new round of fiscal stimulus brings positive growth prospects and inflation expectations will push US Treasury yields higher. The static level of our estimated 10-year U.S. bond interest rate is about 1.5%.</p><p><b>2) US stock market:</b>The upward discount rate and capital cost of the upward interest rate will have a negative effect on the market valuation. However, under the background that the interest rate level is not so high (the current real interest rate is still obviously in the negative range, -1.04%) and the upward speed is moderate, we expect that the final performance of the market will still reflect the effect of risk appetite improvement and profit repair. According to the static historical experience, the threshold of interest rate on valuation is about 1.8~2%. (\"After the 10-year U.S. bond rate rose above 1.1%\").</p><p><b>3) the US Dollar Index:</b>The new fiscal stimulus in the United States and the slow pace of vaccination in the United States are in strong contrast with the progress in Europe (Germany only vaccinated 2.99 million doses, and the daily vaccination of 104,000 doses is less than one tenth of that in the United States), which in turn widens the expected \"scissors gap\" between the United States and Europe in the short term, so it may continue to support the US dollar in the short term. From the trading level, the short position of the US Dollar Index is still at a historical low.</p><p>Of course, it should be noted that the increase of residents' disposable income under further transfer payment may also partially spill over to the stock market, and bring a certain leverage impulse under the profit-making effect. Therefore, while providing liquidity for the market, it is also necessary to pay attention to the decline and fluctuation of market excitement (\"How to monitor the heat, leverage and liquidity of the US stock market?\").</p><p><i>Chart 6: A new round of stimulus and the still large supply-demand gap in the United States may push inflation higher and even have upside risks</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ae5781379cf2ff751fe9ee56197a700\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"502\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Chart 7: Against this background, the long-term interest rate of U.S. debt may continue to rise. We estimate that the static level of the 10-year U.S. bond interest rate is around 1.5%, but the real interest rate is still negative</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf9c11650a93b477341998e94f100646\" tg-width=\"890\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Chart 8: However, against the backdrop of less high interest rates and moderate upward pace, we expect that the market will still end up with improved risk appetite and earnings repair</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a06ba2e09f49e16268b4c4cea8708eb\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Chart 9: According to the static historical experience, the threshold of interest rate impact on valuation is about 1.8~2%</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a1694c8faa0fbf4a7ccb37d16ab50bb\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Chart 10: According to IMF statistics, the current fiscal response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States accounts for 16.7% of GDP, far more than other European countries</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b0293ee55513bcf4a5f06d67fd6c13b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Chart 11: U.S. Stock Market Bullish Option Products Open Positions Surge in the Second Half of 2020</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8187f6b2c95d0206140fe6e685aa3f\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Chart 12: US equity financing balance also climbed sharply, climbing to all-time highs</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bd9e456e2bcd422609c7d914a829969\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"647\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Market Dynamics: Market Rebounds, Dollar Higher; U.S. Nonfarm and PMI Missed Expectations</b></p><p>►<b>Asset performance: bulk> shares> debt; Markets Rally, Rates Lift, Dollar Higher</b>。 Under US dollar pricing, the major assets are ranked as bulk> shares> bonds; Natural gas, India, Brazil, crude oil, FAAMNG, South Korea, US stocks, etc. lead; VIX bulls, gold, bonds and more fell. At the sector level, except for the slight decline in biotechnology, all sectors of U.S. stocks rose, with media, banking and energy leading the gains. US Treasury yields lifts, spreads narrow. the US Dollar Index continues to move higher.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce4ab9b7d84d8fe1ddcef9814f3c4a7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/597c375f2ba7ba44f47b3a073533d94c\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3129cca188803da67680a37f11851fa1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>►<b>Sentiment Positions: VIX Pulls Back, Crude Overbought, Dollar Shorts Increase</b>。 Over the past week, VIX has retreated and crude oil has entered overbought territory. In addition, speculative short positions in the US dollar increased slightly and remained at an all-time high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6e25309b055c7d8213f4d481eb47461\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d404df5ea033a1d724955f9a089c91e0\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a70bcadcdd3b283923ea68e9e7c66f1\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>►<b>Capital Flow: U.S. Stocks Turn to Outflow, Emerging Continues to Inflow</b>。 Last week, U.S. stocks turned into outflows, and developed Europe, Japan and emerging markets continued to flow in, but slowed down slightly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e6a68b3e562df34e6401f2d66d5067\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>►<b>Fundamentals and policy: January non-farm and ISM PMI fell short of expectations.</b>In January, the United States created 49,000 non-farm jobs, which was less than expected (50,000), but the unemployment rate continued to fall to 6.3%; Additionally, the ISM Manufacturing PMI fell back to 58.7% in January from the previous month, but remained strong. The adjustment sentiment of stock market earnings forecasts in all major markets has improved. At present, 56% of S&P 500 companies have disclosed their fourth-quarter results, and Factset expects the fourth-quarter EPS growth rate to be 1.66% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ca6aa1f80d0da197c4af456f9160c49\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e098e4dc1edbc5da6f83702c94ed51d9\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2761d3faf07bd6549f3567335af7a00c\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59938f008e8e1e2fe33f3db508939c56\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>►<b>Market Valuations: Major Market Valuations Elevate Slightly</b>。 At present, the dynamic PE of US stocks rose to 22.3 times in December, while the static P/E of 31.8 times was significantly higher than the reasonable level (~28.0 times) that can be supported by growth (ISM manufacturing PMI =58.7 in January) and liquidity (10-year US bond interest rate 1.16%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdc039b9a3c23ee3ff1fbe751b0f80d1\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b0d3b0cc01d333b35eb5a3492edf4c6\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/V7-h-bdRkeo9gh13vaRiiw\"> Kevin策略研究</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f81b99b97a59da55dd70fd1af475cb","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/V7-h-bdRkeo9gh13vaRiiw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153236252","content_text":"摘要\n上周五，拜登一直努力推动的1.9万亿美元新一轮财政刺激有了新进展。民主党在国会参众两院通过预算调节程序，可以绕开共和党直接以51票简单多数在参议院通过财政救助内容。从目前进展看，我们预期新一轮财政刺激有可能在未来几周内正式通过生效，但最终规模上可能仍有变数。\n此前，市场普遍预期拜登和民主党为了“争取”一部分共和党议员的支持，最终妥协的方案规模可能会较1.9万亿美元小一些。因此，如果“强行”通过1.9万亿美元的财政刺激，将是超出市场预期的。\n新一轮财政刺激的推出对于美国自身增长、美国资产（美股、美债与美元）、以及政治格局和一部分财税相关政策都有重要意义。具体看，\ni.政策含义：动用预算调整程序意味着两党合作的暂时落空；同时，拜登的大规模基建计划和加税政策也可能要相对推后\nii.经济含义：增长或面临上行风险；新一轮财政刺激的推出有助于增加居民可支配收入，进而部分提振消费和房地产支出，也可能一部分外溢到资本市场\niii.市场含义：整体有利美股市场、美债利率和美元指数\n正文\n焦点讨论：美国新一轮财政刺激的最新进展与潜在影响\n上周五，拜登一直努力推动的1.9万亿美元新一轮财政刺激有了新进展。民主党在国会参众两院分别通过了一项预算决议，以推动预算调节程序（Budget Reconciliation）。\n在这一程序框架下，民主党可以绕开共和党通过冗长辩论（Filibuster）的阻挠（终结这一流程又需要60票的支持），而直接以51票简单多数的方式在参议院通过新一轮财政救助法案中的内容（根据国会的议事规则，对预算有影响的一些措施可以放在预算调节程序框架下以简单多数通过，但每个财年有通过次数限制，有关这一问题的详细分析请参考我们此前报告《“民主党横扫”后的参议院能起多大作用?》）。\n此前，市场普遍预期拜登和民主党为了“争取”一部分共和党议员的支持，最终妥协的方案规模可能会较1.9万亿美元小一些。因此，如果“强行”通过1.9万亿美元的财政刺激，将是超出市场预期的。从目前进展看，结合即将开启的针对特朗普弹劾案的审判，我们预期新一轮财政刺激有可能在未来几周内正式通过生效。\n我们认为，新一轮财政刺激的推出对于美国自身增长、美国资产（美股、美债与美元）、以及政治格局和一部分未来财税相关政策都有重要意义，值得密切关注。\n具体而言，\ni.政策含义：动用预算调整程序意味着两党合作暂时落空；同时，拜登的大规模基建计划和加税政策也将相对推后。\n此前，拜登和民主党人一度希望能够“争取”一部分共和党人的支持以兑现就任后弥合美国内部割裂和分化的承诺，或者将新一轮财政刺激中能够获得共和党支持的部分先行表决通过，然后其他部分后续再使用预算调整程序。但显然，这一方式行不通。由于共和党主张的6180亿美元刺激方案相差太大、短期难以弥合。因此拜登和民主党人决定不再等待，而选择以预算调节程序来“强行”通过其刺激计划。\n做出这一选择，既在表明拜登和民主党人眼中推出新一轮财政刺激的紧迫性、也意味着希望两党合作的暂时落空。大选之后，两党在国会的力量对比不是扩大了而是进一步分化了，再加上在一些关键问题上的分歧甚至对立，因此拜登希望大选后弥合两党对立的愿望并没那么容易实现。当然，一些只需要简单多数即可以通过的议程（如官员提名确认和预算调解程序），民主党依然占主导权。\n此外，由于预算调整程序的使用有次数限制，因此优先为财政刺激使用预算调节程序意味着拜登主张的大规模基建和加税计划可能要往后顺延，具体进展可以关注拜登下一财年预算案，这与特朗普2017年底新一财年（10月开始）后利用预算调节程序通过税改的情形类似。一定意义上，这对市场而言并非坏事，毕竟可以缓解短期内市场对于加税的担忧。\nii.经济含义：增长面临上行风险；新一轮财政刺激的推出有助于增加居民可支配收入，进而部分提振消费和房地产支出。\n从规模上，此轮1.9亿美元的刺激若能全额通过、叠加2020年底已经通过的9000亿美元刺激，将使得刺激规模高达2.8万亿美元，基本与2020年4月疫情最为严重时期通过的以CAREs法案为主体的3.1万亿美元刺激规模相当。\n图表1:在去年年末通过9000亿美元的第二波抗疫刺激的基础上，美参众两院通过预算措施，拜登1.9万亿刺激方案进入获批快速通道\n\n从内容上，虽然最终结果还有待敲定，但新一轮刺激将主要包括对于低收入家庭和个人直接回补贴增加1400美元（上一轮为600美元），同时将失业救助提高至每周400美元并延长至9月（上一轮为每周300美元并导3月截止）；此外还包括对疫苗、以及州政府的拨款等。不过，最低工资的提升可能不在其中。\n图表2: 对低收入家庭和个人直接回补贴增加1400美元，同时将失业救助提高至每周400美元并延长至9月\n\n参考去年4~7月第一轮刺激经验，不难看出，新一轮刺激对于提升居民可支配收入，进而刺激消费和房地产支出将起到一定积极效果。当然，考虑到基数效应和耐用品消费的延时性，我们认为整体效果或将不如去年第一轮如此强劲，但或依然可观。\n根据沃顿商学院预算模型（PWBM）的测算[1]，如果对低收入人群的补助依然采取同样发放标准，那么新一轮财政补贴中的27%将会转化为消费支出，其他转化为储蓄，越是低收入人群支出越多。实际上，去年底9000亿美元财政刺激似乎已呈现“立竿见影”的效果，12月美国居民的储蓄率再度攀升至13.7%，目前仍远高于疫情前6~8%的正常水平。\n图表3: 12月美国居民的储蓄率再度攀升至13.7%，目前仍远高于疫情前6~8%的正常水平\n\n图表4: 新一轮刺激对于提升居民可支配收入，进而刺激消费和房地产支出将起到一定积极效果\n\n图表5: 考虑到基数效应和耐用品消费的延时性，整体效果将不如去年第一轮如此强劲，但或依然可观\n\n新一轮财政刺激叠加目前持续回落的疫情（日度新增降至13万人左右）、以及继续推进的疫苗接种（目前累计接种3520万剂，每日接种129万剂），可能使得美国增长和通胀都面临一定上行风险。\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\niii.市场含义：整体利好美股、美债利率和美元指数；财政转移支付也可能一部分外溢到资本市场。\n从资产价格角度，在整体疫情防控和疫苗接种顺利的大背景下，我们认为新一轮财政刺激推出对于包括美股市场、美债利率和美元指数在内的美国资产都将起到支撑效果：\n1）美债利率：新一轮财政刺激带来增长向好前景和通胀预期将推动美债利率走高。我们测算的10年美债利率静态水平在1.5%左右。\n2）美股市场：利率上行反应的贴现率和资金成本上行将对市场估值起到负面效果，但是在利率水平还没有那么高（当前实际利率依然明显处于负区间，-1.04%）且上行速度温和的背景下，我们预计市场最终表现仍将更多体现风险偏好改善和盈利修复的效果。根据历史经验静态来看，利率对估值的影响阈值在1.8~2%左右。（《10年美债利率升破1.1%之后》）。\n3）美元指数：美国新增财政刺激、以及美国疫苗接种速度与欧洲的缓慢（德国仅接种299万剂，日度接种10.4万剂，均不及美国的十分之一）进展都形成强烈反差，这进而拉大短期美国和欧洲的预期“剪刀差”，因此可能短期继续对美元形成支持。从交易层面，目前美元指数的空头仓位也依然处于历史低点。\n当然，需要注意的是，进一步转移支付下居民可支配收入增加可能也会一部分外溢到股市，并在赚钱效应下带来一定加杠杆冲动。因此在为市场提供流动性的同时，也需要关注市场亢奋情绪下跌波动（《如何监测美股市场的热度、杠杆与流动性?》）。\n图表6: 新一轮刺激和美国当前依然较大的供需缺口或将推动通胀走高，甚至存在上行风险\n\n图表7: 在这一背景下，美债长端利率或将继续走高。我们测算10年美债利率静态水平在1.5%左右，但实际利率依然为负\n\n图表8: 但在利率水平没那么高且上行速度温和背景下，我们预计市场最终表现仍将体现风险偏好改善和盈利修复效果\n\n图表9: 根据历史经验静态来看，利率对估值的影响阈值在1.8~2%左右\n图表10: 根据IMF的统计，美国当前为应对新冠疫情的财政响应规模占GDP比重达16.7%，远超过欧洲各国\n\n图表11: 美股市场看多期权产品未平仓量2020年下半年激增\n\n图表12: 美股融资余额也大幅攀升攀升至历史高位\n\n\n\n\n\n市场动态：市场反弹，美元走高；美国非农与PMI不及预期\n\n\n\n\n►资产表现：大宗>股>债；市场反弹，利率抬升、美元走高。美元计价下，大类资产排序为大宗>股>债；天然气、印度、巴西、原油、FAAMNG、韩国、美股等领先；VIX多头、黄金、债券等下跌。板块层面，美股除生物科技微跌外，各板块悉数上涨，其中媒体、银行、能源领涨。美债利率抬升，利差收窄。美元指数继续走高。\n\n\n\n►情绪仓位：VIX回落、原油超买，美元空头增加。过去一周，VIX回落，原油进入超买区间。此外，美元投机性空头小幅增加，仍处历史高位。\n\n\n\n►资金流向：美股转为流出，新兴继续流入。上周，美股转为流出，发达欧洲、日本及新兴市场继续流入，但略有放缓。\n\n►基本面与政策：1月非农和ISM PMI不及预期。美国1月非农新增就业4.9万人，不及预期（5万），但失业率继续回落至6.3%；此外，1月ISM制造业PMI较上月回落至58.7%，但依然强劲。各主要市场股市盈利预测调整情绪均出现改善，标普500当前已有56%的公司披露四季度业绩，Factset预期四季度EPS同比增速为1.66%。\n\n\n\n\n►市场估值：主要市场估值略有抬升。当前美股12月动态PE抬升至22.3倍，而31.8倍的静态P/E明显高于增长（1月ISM制造业PMI=58.7）和流动性（10年美债利率1.16%）能够支撑的合理水平（~28.0倍）。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":994,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":386631860,"gmtCreate":1613168851750,"gmtModify":1704879132824,"author":{"id":"3574563059595551","authorId":"3574563059595551","name":"希菟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c99310785abc9b8abf540f583e93c89","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574563059595551","idStr":"3574563059595551"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WOOF\">$Petco Health and Wellness Company, Inc.(WOOF)$</a>?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WOOF\">$Petco Health and Wellness Company, Inc.(WOOF)$</a>?","text":"$Petco Health and Wellness Company, Inc.(WOOF)$?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52ff255e3b3039a0aae031e9f35a978e","width":"1284","height":"2457"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/386631860","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1435,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386448613,"gmtCreate":1613265020932,"gmtModify":1704879613340,"author":{"id":"3574563059595551","authorId":"3574563059595551","name":"希菟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c99310785abc9b8abf540f583e93c89","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574563059595551","idStr":"3574563059595551"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"……","listText":"……","text":"……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/386448613","repostId":"1140942389","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140942389","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1612233347,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140942389?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-02 10:35","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: List of Main Market Closure Arrangements during the Spring Festival Holiday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140942389","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"春节假期即将来临，敬请广大投资者留意，提前做好资金安排。$老虎证券$祝您及家人新春快乐，牛年大吉！2月11日（星期四）除夕上午开市，下午休市；2月12日（星期五）至2月15日（星期一）全天休市；2月11日（星期四）至2月17日（星期三）休市，2月18日（星期四）起照常开市。CBOE 下 VIX 波动率期货于2月15日10：00提前休市。SGX下天然橡胶货于2021年2月11日以及2021年2月12日整个交易日休市。","content":"<p>The Spring Festival holiday is coming soon, so investors are requested to pay attention and make capital arrangements in advance.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">Tiger Brokers</a>I wish you and your family a happy new year and good luck in the year of the ox!</p><p>During the Spring Festival, the stock market closure arrangements in various places are as follows: (all are local time)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27cfee666051c46a31c824a795046629\" tg-width=\"1790\" tg-height=\"788\"></p><p><b>U.S. stocks:</b></p><p>On Monday, February 15, the market is closed all day for Presidents' Day.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>February 11th (Thursday) New Year's Eve the market opens in the morning and closes in the afternoon;</p><p>Closed all day from Friday, February 12 to Monday, February 15;</p><p>The market will open as usual from Tuesday, February 16.</p><p><b>A shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from Thursday, February 11 to Wednesday, February 17, and will open as usual from Thursday, February 18.</p><p><b>Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed Thursday, February 11 to Wednesday, February 17; Open as usual from Thursday, February 18.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Service will be closed from Tuesday, February 9 to Wednesday, February 17 and open as usual from Thursday, February 18.</p><p><b>UK shares:</b></p><p>Trading as usual</p><p><b>Australian stocks:</b></p><p>Trading as usual</p><p><b>Singapore Market:</b></p><p>Trading half day on Thursday, February 11th.</p><p>Closed all day on Friday, February 12th.</p><p><b>Futures markets:</b></p><p>Under HKEX, US dollar gold and index goods were closed at 12: 30 on February 11th, and individual stock futures were closed at 12: 00 on February 11th; Index futures, RMB, individual stock futures and US dollar gold were closed on February 12th and February 15th.</p><p>Foreign exchange, bonds, Bitcoin, stock index, energy and precious metal futures under GME Group will be closed early at 12: 00 on February 15th (02:00 am Beijing time on the 16th); Living livestock, large and small grains, and rice futures were closed all day on February 15th.</p><p>VIX volatility futures under CBOE closed early on February 15th at 10:00.</p><p>The natural rubber cargo under the SGX was closed for the entire trading day of February 11, 2021 and February 12, 2021.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: List of Main Market Closure Arrangements during the Spring Festival Holiday\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-02-02 10:35</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Spring Festival holiday is coming soon, so investors are requested to pay attention and make capital arrangements in advance.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">Tiger Brokers</a>I wish you and your family a happy new year and good luck in the year of the ox!</p><p>During the Spring Festival, the stock market closure arrangements in various places are as follows: (all are local time)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27cfee666051c46a31c824a795046629\" tg-width=\"1790\" tg-height=\"788\"></p><p><b>U.S. stocks:</b></p><p>On Monday, February 15, the market is closed all day for Presidents' Day.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>February 11th (Thursday) New Year's Eve the market opens in the morning and closes in the afternoon;</p><p>Closed all day from Friday, February 12 to Monday, February 15;</p><p>The market will open as usual from Tuesday, February 16.</p><p><b>A shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from Thursday, February 11 to Wednesday, February 17, and will open as usual from Thursday, February 18.</p><p><b>Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed Thursday, February 11 to Wednesday, February 17; Open as usual from Thursday, February 18.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Service will be closed from Tuesday, February 9 to Wednesday, February 17 and open as usual from Thursday, February 18.</p><p><b>UK shares:</b></p><p>Trading as usual</p><p><b>Australian stocks:</b></p><p>Trading as usual</p><p><b>Singapore Market:</b></p><p>Trading half day on Thursday, February 11th.</p><p>Closed all day on Friday, February 12th.</p><p><b>Futures markets:</b></p><p>Under HKEX, US dollar gold and index goods were closed at 12: 30 on February 11th, and individual stock futures were closed at 12: 00 on February 11th; Index futures, RMB, individual stock futures and US dollar gold were closed on February 12th and February 15th.</p><p>Foreign exchange, bonds, Bitcoin, stock index, energy and precious metal futures under GME Group will be closed early at 12: 00 on February 15th (02:00 am Beijing time on the 16th); Living livestock, large and small grains, and rice futures were closed all day on February 15th.</p><p>VIX volatility futures under CBOE closed early on February 15th at 10:00.</p><p>The natural rubber cargo under the SGX was closed for the entire trading day of February 11, 2021 and February 12, 2021.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8f89c8af2a895e609af6985ff4ae3ab","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140942389","content_text":"春节假期即将来临，敬请广大投资者留意，提前做好资金安排。老虎证券祝您及家人新春快乐，牛年大吉！春节期间各地股市休市安排如下：(均为当地时间）美股：2月15日（星期一）因美国总统日全天休市。港股：2月11日（星期四）除夕上午开市，下午休市；2月12日（星期五）至2月15日（星期一）全天休市；2月16日（星期二）起照常开市。A股：2月11日（星期四）至2月17日（星期三）休市，2月18日（星期四）起照常开市。沪、深股通：2月11日（星期四）至2月17日（星期三）关闭；2月18日（星期四）起照常开通。港股通：2月9日（星期二）至2月17日（星期三）关闭服务，2月18日（星期四）起照常开通。英股：照常交易澳股：照常交易新加坡市场：2月11日（星期四）交易半日。2月12日（星期五）全天休市。期货市场：HKEX下美元黄金、指数类货于2月11日12：30休市，个股期货于2月11日12：00休市；指数类期货、人民币、个股期货、美元黄金于2月12日以及2月15日整个交易日休市。GME Group下外汇、债券、比特币、股指、能源、贵金属期货于2月15日12：00（北京时间16日凌晨02:00）提前休市；活畜、大小谷物、稻谷期货于2月15日全天休市。CBOE 下 VIX 波动率期货于2月15日10：00提前休市。SGX下天然橡胶货于2021年2月11日以及2021年2月12日整个交易日休市。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9009820501,"gmtCreate":1640616237529,"gmtModify":1676533529385,"author":{"id":"3574563059595551","authorId":"3574563059595551","name":"希菟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c99310785abc9b8abf540f583e93c89","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574563059595551","idStr":"3574563059595551"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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what happened, why my stock never been like that","listText":"W9h, what happened, why my stock never been like that","text":"W9h, what happened, why my stock never been like 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IQIY","listText":"IQIY IQIY","text":"IQIY IQIY","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/384916435","repostId":"1193108537","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193108537","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1613604224,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193108537?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-18 07:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Total Subscription Membership Drops, iQiyi Drops More Than 9% After Hours","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193108537","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2月17日美股盘后，爱奇艺公布2020年第四季度及2020财年业绩。财报显示：爱奇艺第四季度营收75亿元，市场预期74.84亿元，去年同期74.97亿元；净亏损15.49亿元，市场预期亏损18.84亿","content":"<p>After the U.S. stock market closed on February 17th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQIYI</a>Announced fourth quarter 2020 and fiscal year 2020 results. The financial report shows that iQiyi's revenue in the fourth quarter was 7.5 billion yuan, with the market expectation of 7.484 billion yuan and 7.497 billion yuan in the same period last year; The net loss was 1.549 billion yuan, the market expected loss was 1.884 billion yuan, and the loss in the same period of last year was 2.495 billion yuan; The loss per ADS was 2.1 yuan, and the market expected loss was 2.44 yuan, compared with a loss of 3.43 yuan in the same period last year.</p><p>In fiscal 2020, iQiyi's total revenue was 29.7 billion yuan, of which membership services, online advertising, content distribution and other revenue were 16.5 billion yuan, 6.8 billion yuan, 2.7 billion yuan and 3.7 billion yuan, respectively. At the same time, iQIYI's operating loss and net loss attributable to iQIYI both narrowed significantly, and the net loss decreased by 3.3 billion yuan compared with the same period of 2019.</p><p>In the overall revenue structure of iQiyi, membership service revenue has surpassed advertising revenue for the first time since the third quarter of 2018, and has become the largest revenue pillar of iQiyi for ten consecutive quarters. As of December 31, 2020, the total number of subscribed members was 101.7 million, down from the same period last year, while iQIYI's membership revenue in 2020 increased by 14% from the same period last year to 16.5 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a514094be235758e64ec6e5104cd3a74\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"836\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After the financial report was announced, iQIYI's share price fell by more than 9% after hours.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b2db0154b9063dca12852911ee2cdc\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Fourth Quarter 2020 Financial Results</b></p><p>Total revenue reached 7.5 billion yuan ($1.1 billion), down 1% from the same period in 2019.</p><p>Revenue from membership services was 3.8 billion yuan (US$587.8 million), a decrease of 1% from the same period in 2019. The decrease was mainly attributable to a decrease in subscription membership to 101.7 million from 106.9 million a year ago.</p><p>Revenue from online advertising services was 1.9 billion yuan ($284.9 million), down 1% from the same period in 2019.</p><p>Revenue from content distribution was RMB804.3 million (US$123.3 million), representing a decrease of 8% as compared to the same period in 2019. The decrease was mainly due to a decrease in cash transactions, partially offset by an increase in barter transactions.</p><p>Other income was 959.6 million yuan ($147.1 million), up 10% from the same period in 2019, primarily due to growth in certain business lines.</p><p>Cost of revenue was RMB6.8 billion (US$1 billion), a decrease of 14% from the same period in 2019. The decrease in cost of revenue was primarily due to a decrease in content costs during the quarter. Content costs, an integral part of the cost of revenue, amounted to 5.1 billion yuan ($786.1 million), a 10% decrease compared to the same period in 2019. The decrease was primarily attributable to reduced recording expenses for producing content, an increase in shorter-length content that met the needs of diverse users, and updated accounting estimates for future viewership of consumption patterns and useful lives of content assets to better reflect the intended use of those content assets.</p><p>Selling, general and administrative expenses were RMB1.3 billion (US$201.9 million), a decrease of 6% from the same period in 2019. This was mainly attributed to a decrease in marketing expenses.</p><p>Research and development expenses amounted to RMB663.4 million (US$101.7 million), representing a decrease of 7% compared to the same period in 2019, primarily due to a decrease in personnel-related compensation expenses.</p><p>Operating loss was originally 1.3 billion yuan ($200.4 million), compared to an operating loss of 2.5 billion yuan and an operating loss margin of 18%, compared to 34% for the same period in 2019.</p><p>Other expenses totalled RMB241.0 million (US$36.9 million), compared to total other income of RMB75.3 million for the same period in 2019. The year-on-year change was mainly due to the decrease in foreign exchange gains.</p><p>Loss before income tax was 1.5 billion yuan ($237.3 million), compared to the loss before income tax of 2.5 billion yuan in the same period in 2019</p><p>Income tax income originally amounted to RMB16.3 million (US$2.5 million), while income tax expense amounted to RMB22.6 million for the same period in 2019.</p><p>Net loss attributable to iQiyi was 1.5 billion yuan ($237.2 million), while net loss attributable to iQiyi was 2.5 billion yuan for the same period in 2019. Diluted net loss per ADR attributable to iQiyi was RMB2.10 (NT$0.32) as compared to diluted net loss per ADR attributable to iQiyi of RMB3.43 in the fourth quarter of 2020.</p><p>As of December 31, 2020, the Company had cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and the following short-term investments: RMB14.3 billion (US$2.2 billion).</p><p><b>Fiscal Year 2020 Financial Results</b></p><p>Total revenue reached 29.7 billion yuan ($4.6 billion), up 2% from 2019.</p><p>Revenue from membership services was 16.5 billion yuan ($2.5 billion), up 14% from 2019. The increase was primarily attributable to the increase in subscription membership pulled by Covid-19 in the first half of 2020, as well as the exclusive content and various operational plans we launched during the year.</p><p>Revenue from online advertising services had been 6.8 billion yuan ($1 billion), down 18% from 2019. The decrease was mainly due to the challenging macroeconomic environment in the PRC.</p><p>Content distribution revenue had been 2.7 billion yuan ($407.7 million), up 5% from 2019.</p><p>Other income was RMB 3.7 billion ($572.3 million), unchanged from 2019.</p><p>Cost of revenue was RMB27.9 billion (US$4.3 billion), an 8% decrease from 2019. The decrease was mainly due to the decrease in content costs and other cost items. Content costs, an integral part of the cost of revenue, amounted to 20.9 billion yuan ($3.2 billion), down 6% compared to 2019. The decrease was due to reduced spending on recorded production content, shorter-length content meeting the needs of diverse users, and updated accounting estimates of future viewing consumption patterns and useful lives of content assets to better reflect the intended use of these content assets.</p><p>Selling, general and administrative expenses were 5.2 billion yuan ($795.1 million), a decrease of 1% from 2019. This was mainly due to reduced marketing expenses.</p><p>Research and development expenses of RMB2.7 billion (US$410 million) remained unchanged since 2019, primarily due to a decrease in personnel compensation offset by an increase in stock-based compensation expenses.</p><p>Operating loss was originally 6 billion yuan ($925.7 million), compared to an operating loss of 9.3 billion yuan. The operating loss margin in 2019 was 20%, compared to 32% in 2019.</p><p>Other expenses totalled RMB943.4 million (US$144.6 million), compared to RMB967.1 million in 2019 as compared to total other expenses.</p><p>Loss before income tax was 7 billion yuan ($1.1 billion), compared to loss before income tax of 10.2 billion yuan in 2019.</p><p>Income tax expenses originally amounted to RMB23.3 million (US$3.6 million), while income tax expenses amounted to RMB51.9 million in 2019.</p><p>Net losses attributable to iQiyi were 7 billion yuan ($1.1 billion), while net losses attributable to iQiyi were 10.3 billion yuan in 2019. Diluted net loss per ADS attributable to iQIYI was RMB9.52 (US$1.47), compared to iQIYI's diluted net loss per ADS of RMB14.14 in 2019.</p><p><b>Financial guidance</b></p><p>iQIYI expects total net income in the first quarter of 2021 to be between 7.07 billion yuan ($1.08 billion) and 7.53 billion yuan ($1.15 billion), a year-over-year decline of 8% to 2%. This forecast reflects iQIYI's current and preliminary views and is subject to change.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Total Subscription Membership Drops, iQiyi Drops More Than 9% After Hours</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTotal Subscription Membership Drops, iQiyi Drops More Than 9% After Hours\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-02-18 07:23</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After the U.S. stock market closed on February 17th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQIYI</a>Announced fourth quarter 2020 and fiscal year 2020 results. The financial report shows that iQiyi's revenue in the fourth quarter was 7.5 billion yuan, with the market expectation of 7.484 billion yuan and 7.497 billion yuan in the same period last year; The net loss was 1.549 billion yuan, the market expected loss was 1.884 billion yuan, and the loss in the same period of last year was 2.495 billion yuan; The loss per ADS was 2.1 yuan, and the market expected loss was 2.44 yuan, compared with a loss of 3.43 yuan in the same period last year.</p><p>In fiscal 2020, iQiyi's total revenue was 29.7 billion yuan, of which membership services, online advertising, content distribution and other revenue were 16.5 billion yuan, 6.8 billion yuan, 2.7 billion yuan and 3.7 billion yuan, respectively. At the same time, iQIYI's operating loss and net loss attributable to iQIYI both narrowed significantly, and the net loss decreased by 3.3 billion yuan compared with the same period of 2019.</p><p>In the overall revenue structure of iQiyi, membership service revenue has surpassed advertising revenue for the first time since the third quarter of 2018, and has become the largest revenue pillar of iQiyi for ten consecutive quarters. As of December 31, 2020, the total number of subscribed members was 101.7 million, down from the same period last year, while iQIYI's membership revenue in 2020 increased by 14% from the same period last year to 16.5 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a514094be235758e64ec6e5104cd3a74\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"836\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After the financial report was announced, iQIYI's share price fell by more than 9% after hours.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b2db0154b9063dca12852911ee2cdc\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Fourth Quarter 2020 Financial Results</b></p><p>Total revenue reached 7.5 billion yuan ($1.1 billion), down 1% from the same period in 2019.</p><p>Revenue from membership services was 3.8 billion yuan (US$587.8 million), a decrease of 1% from the same period in 2019. The decrease was mainly attributable to a decrease in subscription membership to 101.7 million from 106.9 million a year ago.</p><p>Revenue from online advertising services was 1.9 billion yuan ($284.9 million), down 1% from the same period in 2019.</p><p>Revenue from content distribution was RMB804.3 million (US$123.3 million), representing a decrease of 8% as compared to the same period in 2019. The decrease was mainly due to a decrease in cash transactions, partially offset by an increase in barter transactions.</p><p>Other income was 959.6 million yuan ($147.1 million), up 10% from the same period in 2019, primarily due to growth in certain business lines.</p><p>Cost of revenue was RMB6.8 billion (US$1 billion), a decrease of 14% from the same period in 2019. The decrease in cost of revenue was primarily due to a decrease in content costs during the quarter. Content costs, an integral part of the cost of revenue, amounted to 5.1 billion yuan ($786.1 million), a 10% decrease compared to the same period in 2019. The decrease was primarily attributable to reduced recording expenses for producing content, an increase in shorter-length content that met the needs of diverse users, and updated accounting estimates for future viewership of consumption patterns and useful lives of content assets to better reflect the intended use of those content assets.</p><p>Selling, general and administrative expenses were RMB1.3 billion (US$201.9 million), a decrease of 6% from the same period in 2019. This was mainly attributed to a decrease in marketing expenses.</p><p>Research and development expenses amounted to RMB663.4 million (US$101.7 million), representing a decrease of 7% compared to the same period in 2019, primarily due to a decrease in personnel-related compensation expenses.</p><p>Operating loss was originally 1.3 billion yuan ($200.4 million), compared to an operating loss of 2.5 billion yuan and an operating loss margin of 18%, compared to 34% for the same period in 2019.</p><p>Other expenses totalled RMB241.0 million (US$36.9 million), compared to total other income of RMB75.3 million for the same period in 2019. The year-on-year change was mainly due to the decrease in foreign exchange gains.</p><p>Loss before income tax was 1.5 billion yuan ($237.3 million), compared to the loss before income tax of 2.5 billion yuan in the same period in 2019</p><p>Income tax income originally amounted to RMB16.3 million (US$2.5 million), while income tax expense amounted to RMB22.6 million for the same period in 2019.</p><p>Net loss attributable to iQiyi was 1.5 billion yuan ($237.2 million), while net loss attributable to iQiyi was 2.5 billion yuan for the same period in 2019. Diluted net loss per ADR attributable to iQiyi was RMB2.10 (NT$0.32) as compared to diluted net loss per ADR attributable to iQiyi of RMB3.43 in the fourth quarter of 2020.</p><p>As of December 31, 2020, the Company had cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and the following short-term investments: RMB14.3 billion (US$2.2 billion).</p><p><b>Fiscal Year 2020 Financial Results</b></p><p>Total revenue reached 29.7 billion yuan ($4.6 billion), up 2% from 2019.</p><p>Revenue from membership services was 16.5 billion yuan ($2.5 billion), up 14% from 2019. The increase was primarily attributable to the increase in subscription membership pulled by Covid-19 in the first half of 2020, as well as the exclusive content and various operational plans we launched during the year.</p><p>Revenue from online advertising services had been 6.8 billion yuan ($1 billion), down 18% from 2019. The decrease was mainly due to the challenging macroeconomic environment in the PRC.</p><p>Content distribution revenue had been 2.7 billion yuan ($407.7 million), up 5% from 2019.</p><p>Other income was RMB 3.7 billion ($572.3 million), unchanged from 2019.</p><p>Cost of revenue was RMB27.9 billion (US$4.3 billion), an 8% decrease from 2019. The decrease was mainly due to the decrease in content costs and other cost items. Content costs, an integral part of the cost of revenue, amounted to 20.9 billion yuan ($3.2 billion), down 6% compared to 2019. The decrease was due to reduced spending on recorded production content, shorter-length content meeting the needs of diverse users, and updated accounting estimates of future viewing consumption patterns and useful lives of content assets to better reflect the intended use of these content assets.</p><p>Selling, general and administrative expenses were 5.2 billion yuan ($795.1 million), a decrease of 1% from 2019. This was mainly due to reduced marketing expenses.</p><p>Research and development expenses of RMB2.7 billion (US$410 million) remained unchanged since 2019, primarily due to a decrease in personnel compensation offset by an increase in stock-based compensation expenses.</p><p>Operating loss was originally 6 billion yuan ($925.7 million), compared to an operating loss of 9.3 billion yuan. The operating loss margin in 2019 was 20%, compared to 32% in 2019.</p><p>Other expenses totalled RMB943.4 million (US$144.6 million), compared to RMB967.1 million in 2019 as compared to total other expenses.</p><p>Loss before income tax was 7 billion yuan ($1.1 billion), compared to loss before income tax of 10.2 billion yuan in 2019.</p><p>Income tax expenses originally amounted to RMB23.3 million (US$3.6 million), while income tax expenses amounted to RMB51.9 million in 2019.</p><p>Net losses attributable to iQiyi were 7 billion yuan ($1.1 billion), while net losses attributable to iQiyi were 10.3 billion yuan in 2019. Diluted net loss per ADS attributable to iQIYI was RMB9.52 (US$1.47), compared to iQIYI's diluted net loss per ADS of RMB14.14 in 2019.</p><p><b>Financial guidance</b></p><p>iQIYI expects total net income in the first quarter of 2021 to be between 7.07 billion yuan ($1.08 billion) and 7.53 billion yuan ($1.15 billion), a year-over-year decline of 8% to 2%. This forecast reflects iQIYI's current and preliminary views and is subject to change.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f48fbc541b07547e95dfb5b1221fb6ed","relate_stocks":{"IQ":"爱奇艺"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193108537","content_text":"2月17日美股盘后，爱奇艺公布2020年第四季度及2020财年业绩。财报显示：爱奇艺第四季度营收75亿元，市场预期74.84亿元，去年同期74.97亿元；净亏损15.49亿元，市场预期亏损18.84亿元，去年同期亏损24.95亿元；每ADS亏损2.1元，市场预期亏损2.44元，去年同期亏损3.43元。2020财年爱奇艺总收入为297亿元，其中会员服务、在线广告、内容发行和其他营收分别为165亿元、68亿元、27亿元和37亿元。同时，爱奇艺经营亏损和归属于爱奇艺的净亏损均出现大幅收窄，净亏损较2019年同期下降33亿元。在爱奇艺总体收入结构中，会员服务收入自2018年第三季度首超广告收入，已连续十个季度成为爱奇艺第一大收入支柱。截至2020年12月31日，订阅会员总数为1.017亿，较去年同期有所下降，与此同时爱奇艺2020年会员收入较去年同期增长14%，达165亿元。财报公布后，爱奇艺盘后股价跌逾9%。2020年第四季度财务业绩总收入达到75亿元（11亿美元），比2019年同期减少1％。会员服务收入为38亿元（5.878亿美元），较2019年同期减少1％。减少的主要原因订阅会员人数从一年前的1.069亿下降至1.017亿。在线广告服务收入为19亿元（2.849亿美元），比2019年同期减少1％。内容分发收入为人民币8.043亿元（1.233亿美元），较2019年同期减少8％。减少的主要原因是现金交易减少，但部分被易货交易增加抵消。其他收入为9.596亿元（1.471亿美元），比2019年同期增长10％，主要是由于某些业务线的增长。收入成本为68亿元人民币（10亿美元），较2019年同期减少了14％。收入成本的下降主要是由于本季度内容成本的减少。内容成本是收入成本的组成部分，51亿元（7.861亿美元），与2019年同期相比减少了10％。减少的主要原因是，制作内容的记录费用减少了，满足了多样化用户需求的长度较短的内容也有所增加，以及更新了未来收视率的会计估计内容资产的消费模式和使用寿命，以更好地反映这些内容资产的预期用途。销售，一般和管理费用为13亿元人民币（2.019亿美元），较2019年同期减少6％。这主要归因于营销支出减少。研发支出为663.4百万元（1.017亿美元），较2019年同期减少7％，主要是由于与人事有关的薪酬支出减少。营业亏损原为13亿元（2.004亿美元），相比之下，经营亏损25亿元营业亏损率为18％，而2019年同期营业亏损率为34％。其他费用总计为241.0百万元（3690万美元），与其他总收入相比人民币7530万元2019年同期。同比变化主要是由于汇兑收益减少。所得税前亏损为15亿元（2.373亿美元），与所得税前的亏损相比25亿元在2019年同期所得税收益原为人民币16.3百万 （250万美元），而所得税费用则为人民币22.6百万元在2019年同期爱奇艺应占净亏损为15亿元（2.372亿美元），而归属于爱奇艺的净亏损为25亿元2019年同期。归属于爱奇艺的每股美国存托凭证摊薄净亏损为人民币2.10（新台币$ 0.32元）相比2020年第四季度归属于爱奇艺的美国存托凭证摊薄净亏损人民币3.43在2019年同期作为2020年12月31日，公司有现金，现金等价物，限制现金和以下短期投资：143亿元人民币（22亿美元）。2020财年财务业绩总收入达到297亿元人民币（46亿美元），比2019年增长2％。会员服务收入为165亿元人民币（25亿美元），比2019年增长了14％。增长主要归因于Covid-19在2020年上半年拉动的订阅会员的增加，以及这一年我们推出的独家内容和各种运营计划。在线广告服务收入原为68亿元人民币（10亿美元），较2019年减少了18％。减少的主要原因是中国宏观经济环境充满挑战中国。内容分发收入原为27亿元人民币（4.077亿美元），比2019年增长5％。其他收入是37亿元人民币（5.723亿美元），从2019年起保持不变。收入成本原为279亿元人民币（43亿美元），较2019年减少8％。减少的主要原因是内容成本和其他成本项目减少。内容成本是收入成本的组成部分，209亿元人民币（32亿美元），与2019年相比下降了6％。下降的原因是，记录的制作内容支出减少，长度较短的内容满足了多样化用户的需求，以及更新了未来收视消费模式的会计估计和内容资产的使用寿命，以更好地反映这些内容资产的预期用途。销售，一般和管理费用为52亿元（7.951亿美元），比2019年减少了1％。这主要是由于减少了营销支出。研发支出为27亿元人民币（4.10亿美元），自2019年以来保持不变，主要是由于人事补偿的减少被股票薪酬费用的增加所抵消。营业亏损原为60亿元（9.257亿美元），相比之下，经营亏损93亿元人民币2019年的经营亏损率为20％，而2019年的经营亏损率为32％。其他费用总计为人民币9.434亿元（1.446亿美元），而与其他费用总额相比人民币967.1百万元在2019年。所得税前亏损为70亿元（11亿美元），与所得税前的亏损相比102亿元在2019年。所得税费用原为人民币2,330万元（360万美元），而所得税费用则为人民币51.9百万元在2019年。爱奇艺应占净亏损为70亿元（11亿美元），而归属于爱奇艺的净亏损为103亿元2019年。归属于爱奇艺的每股美国存托凭证摊薄净亏损为人民币9.52（US $ 1.47），相比之下，iQIYI每份ADS摊薄净亏损为人民币14.14在2019年。财务指导爱奇艺预计2021年第一季度的净收入总额将介于70.7亿元人民币（10.8亿美元） 和75.3亿元人民币（11.5亿美元），同比下降了8％至2％。该预测反映了爱奇艺当前和初步的观点，可能会发生变化。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1005,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":316722096,"gmtCreate":1611959577215,"gmtModify":1704866627887,"author":{"id":"3574563059595551","authorId":"3574563059595551","name":"希菟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c99310785abc9b8abf540f583e93c89","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574563059595551","idStr":"3574563059595551"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/316722096","repostId":"1172321012","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":805,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}