USD The US Dollar traded unevenly, showing a softening trend against major peers like the Euro and Japanese Yen due to improved global risk sentiment. Speculative positioning has become heavily skewed toward USD selling, with gross short positions across eight IMM currency futures more than doubling to a six-month high of USD 17.4 billion. JPM economists continue to see global GDP staying resilient at 2.8%, with consumers as a key driver. GS economists anticipate a +45k headline NFP print and a 33bp core CPI reading for January, noting that January reports often provide outsized FX reactions. Nomura reported that year-ahead inflation expectations in the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations moved lower to 3.09%, the lowest since July 2025. Goldman Sachs traders warned that US stocks face

Bitcoin (BTC) Bitcoin Reclaims $70,000 as Bulls Defend "Weakest Bear Case "Bitcoin has staged a recovery, reclaiming the $70,000 psychological level after plunging to a 15-month low under $62,000 last week. The rebound is driven by a mix of institutional buying and whale accumulation. Binance bolstered its SAFU fund with a massive **$300 million Bitcoin purchase** (4,225 BTC), while Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) acquired an additional 1,142 BTC for $90 million. These corporate moves have acted as a backstop, absorbing the selling pressure that erased $500 billion from the market cap since mid-January. Analysts at Bernstein have doubled down on their bullish outlook, calling the recent sell-off the "weakest bear case on record" and reaffirming a $150,000 target for 2026. They cite tig

Bitcoin (BTC) Bitcoin Recovers Above $72,000 as Institutional Bulls Defend Long-Term Thesis Bitcoin (BTC) has managed a modest recovery, climbing back above the $72,000 mark ($72,222) after a brutal week of selling that saw prices dip below $60,000. Despite the short-term volatility, institutional conviction remains unshaken. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) founder Michael Saylor hinted at further accumulation with his "Orange Dots Matter" post, suggesting the firm is buying the dip even as its holdings sit below cost basis with a $3.4 billion unrealized loss. Similarly, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley called the sub-$70k levels a "once-in-a-lifetime" entry point, reinforcing the narrative that smart money is absorbing the panic selling. However, the market is navigating significant headwinds

Bitcoin (BTC) Bitcoin Erases All Post-Election Gains, Plunging to $62K Amid "Full Capitulation" Bitcoin has officially wiped out all gains made since Donald Trump's 2024 election victory, crashing to a low of $62,200 on February 5 before stabilizing near $65,000. The collapse marks a 30% correction from its January peak, driven by a "perfect storm" of macro headwinds: dismal U.S. economic data, fears of an AI bubble burst, and intense geopolitical strain. On-chain metrics scream "capitulation," with Glassnode reporting the second-largest forced selling spike in two years. Despite the carnage, BlackRock's IBIT ETF saw record daily volume of $10 billion, suggesting that while retail panics, institutions are stepping in to absorb the liquidity event. The market mood is grim, with sentiment hi

1.0 USD 6.1.1 Synthesis The US Dollar is rebounding after an initial post-FOMC sell-off, with renewed momentum driven by geopolitical jitters and a "hawkish hold" narrative gaining traction. J.P. Morgan highlights that while deleveraging was a theme last week, the USD pullback was "tamer" than expected relative to the volatility in other assets like crypto and metals. The bank has raised its targets for AUD/USD (0.73) and NZD/USD (0.63), signaling a rotation away from the US dollar and into pro-cyclical currencies, but maintains a structural short bias on EUR and GBP. Goldman Sachs argues that the dollar's high valuation is showing "wear and tear" as the US asset market cycle ages, suggesting global investors may start dialing down USD exposure. However, the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fe

5.1 Crude/Brent Synthesis Crude oil prices posted a modest recovery, with WTI settling above $63/bbl and Brent climbing over $68/bbl, as market participants digested the outcomes of US-Iran diplomatic talks in Oman. While the discussions ended without a concrete agreement, the dialogue was described as a "good start" and a "positive" step, helping to ease immediate fears of military escalation that had previously injected a significant risk premium into prices. However, a residual geopolitical risk premium remains embedded in the market as traders remain cautious about the long-term resolution of tensions, particularly given Iran's steadfast stance on nuclear enrichment. Adding to the complex geopolitical landscape, the EU announced plans for a full maritime services ban on Russian crude,