1.0 USD 6.1.1 Synthesis The US Dollar is navigating mixed signals as traders digest resilient labor data against a backdrop of geopolitical tension and shifting Fed expectations. J.P. Morgan and Nomura are analyzing the implications of the upcoming NFP report, with JPM forecasting a softer 30k jobs gain (vs 68k consensus) but maintaining a steady 4.4% unemployment rate. This data, combined with a 0.35% MoM core CPI forecast, keeps the Fed on a path of caution rather than aggressive easing. MUFG notes that the dollar index (DXY) has lost some momentum, falling below 97.00 after hitting recent highs, as weaker-than-expected retail sales (flat in Dec) fueled bets for a June rate cut. Geopolitically, the dollar remains supported by safe-haven flows amidst ongoing US-Iran tensions and supply c

5.1 Crude/Brent Synthesis Crude oil prices have strengthened, with Brent trading around $69/bbl, supported by a combination of geopolitical tensions, supply-side concerns, and a "risk-on" sentiment driven by strong US economic data. The geopolitical landscape remains fraught, with Russia accusing the US of coercing nations like India to shun Russian oil, while Israel's Prime Minister is set to meet President Trump to discuss Iran. Supply tightness is a recurring theme, underscored by Shell's warning of a significant long-term production shortfall and OPEC's January output decline. Demand signals are mixed but leaning positive, with US consumer sentiment beating expectations and Chinese equity markets rallying on stimulus hopes. J.P. Morgan (JPM) maintains a watchful eye on global growth,

USD The US Dollar traded unevenly, showing a softening trend against major peers like the Euro and Japanese Yen due to improved global risk sentiment. Speculative positioning has become heavily skewed toward USD selling, with gross short positions across eight IMM currency futures more than doubling to a six-month high of USD 17.4 billion. JPM economists continue to see global GDP staying resilient at 2.8%, with consumers as a key driver. GS economists anticipate a +45k headline NFP print and a 33bp core CPI reading for January, noting that January reports often provide outsized FX reactions. Nomura reported that year-ahead inflation expectations in the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations moved lower to 3.09%, the lowest since July 2025. Goldman Sachs traders warned that US stocks face

5.1 Crude/Brent Synthesis Crude oil prices have demonstrated resilience, holding onto recent gains as the market balances immediate geopolitical risks against a structurally bearish medium-term outlook. Brent futures traded firmly above the $68/bbl mark, supported by a confluence of supply-side concerns and lingering diplomatic tensions. While US-Iran talks in Oman concluded with a "positive" tone, averting immediate escalation, the lack of a concrete resolution keeps a risk premium embedded in the market. Traders remain wary of potential flare-ups, particularly with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu scheduled to meet President Trump to discuss the Iranian nuclear file. On the physical front, supply tightness is evident as the aftershocks of the US "deep freeze" continue to hamper producti

Bitcoin (BTC) Bitcoin Reclaims $70,000 as Bulls Defend "Weakest Bear Case "Bitcoin has staged a recovery, reclaiming the $70,000 psychological level after plunging to a 15-month low under $62,000 last week. The rebound is driven by a mix of institutional buying and whale accumulation. Binance bolstered its SAFU fund with a massive **$300 million Bitcoin purchase** (4,225 BTC), while Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) acquired an additional 1,142 BTC for $90 million. These corporate moves have acted as a backstop, absorbing the selling pressure that erased $500 billion from the market cap since mid-January. Analysts at Bernstein have doubled down on their bullish outlook, calling the recent sell-off the "weakest bear case on record" and reaffirming a $150,000 target for 2026. They cite tig

Bitcoin (BTC) Bitcoin Recovers Above $72,000 as Institutional Bulls Defend Long-Term Thesis Bitcoin (BTC) has managed a modest recovery, climbing back above the $72,000 mark ($72,222) after a brutal week of selling that saw prices dip below $60,000. Despite the short-term volatility, institutional conviction remains unshaken. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) founder Michael Saylor hinted at further accumulation with his "Orange Dots Matter" post, suggesting the firm is buying the dip even as its holdings sit below cost basis with a $3.4 billion unrealized loss. Similarly, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley called the sub-$70k levels a "once-in-a-lifetime" entry point, reinforcing the narrative that smart money is absorbing the panic selling. However, the market is navigating significant headwinds

1.0 USD 6.1.1 Synthesis The US Dollar is rebounding after an initial post-FOMC sell-off, with renewed momentum driven by geopolitical jitters and a "hawkish hold" narrative gaining traction. J.P. Morgan highlights that while deleveraging was a theme last week, the USD pullback was "tamer" than expected relative to the volatility in other assets like crypto and metals. The bank has raised its targets for AUD/USD (0.73) and NZD/USD (0.63), signaling a rotation away from the US dollar and into pro-cyclical currencies, but maintains a structural short bias on EUR and GBP. Goldman Sachs argues that the dollar's high valuation is showing "wear and tear" as the US asset market cycle ages, suggesting global investors may start dialing down USD exposure. However, the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fe

5.1 Crude/Brent Synthesis Crude oil prices posted a modest recovery, with WTI settling above $63/bbl and Brent climbing over $68/bbl, as market participants digested the outcomes of US-Iran diplomatic talks in Oman. While the discussions ended without a concrete agreement, the dialogue was described as a "good start" and a "positive" step, helping to ease immediate fears of military escalation that had previously injected a significant risk premium into prices. However, a residual geopolitical risk premium remains embedded in the market as traders remain cautious about the long-term resolution of tensions, particularly given Iran's steadfast stance on nuclear enrichment. Adding to the complex geopolitical landscape, the EU announced plans for a full maritime services ban on Russian crude,

1.0 USD 6.1.1 Synthesis The US Dollar is rebounding broadly, shaking off recent weakness as a confluence of resilient economic data and central bank divergence re-energizes the greenback. Saxo highlights a "new and broad comeback" for the USD, driven by a risk-off rotation in equities (tech sell-off) and a hawkish repricing of Fed expectations. J.P. Morgan notes that despite the chaotic start to February for commodities, the divergence between rising metals and falling energy is a "healthy correction," not a turning point, suggesting underlying demand remains intact. Domestically, the labor market remains the key battleground; Nomura points out that while ADP private payrolls disappointed (22k vs 45k exp), initial jobless claims rose to 231k, partly due to winter storms, keeping the "soft

5.1 Crude/Brent Synthesis Crude oil markets have shown significant volatility, initially retreating from recent highs before finding support from renewed geopolitical risks. Prices edged higher as traders digested conflicting reports regarding US-Iran nuclear talks, with initial reports of a cancellation driving prices up before confirmation that talks would proceed in Oman calmed sentiment. J.P. Morgan maintains a structurally bearish outlook for the medium term, forecasting Brent to average $73/bbl in 2026 due to robust non-OPEC+ supply growth outpacing demand. However, immediate support comes from US inventory data showing a 3.5 million barrel draw in crude stocks, although this was less than some industry expectations. Key Themes Geopolitics: Tensions in the Middle East remain a primar

Bitcoin (BTC) Bitcoin Erases All Post-Election Gains, Plunging to $62K Amid "Full Capitulation" Bitcoin has officially wiped out all gains made since Donald Trump's 2024 election victory, crashing to a low of $62,200 on February 5 before stabilizing near $65,000. The collapse marks a 30% correction from its January peak, driven by a "perfect storm" of macro headwinds: dismal U.S. economic data, fears of an AI bubble burst, and intense geopolitical strain. On-chain metrics scream "capitulation," with Glassnode reporting the second-largest forced selling spike in two years. Despite the carnage, BlackRock's IBIT ETF saw record daily volume of $10 billion, suggesting that while retail panics, institutions are stepping in to absorb the liquidity event. The market mood is grim, with sentiment hi

Daily Crypto Market Summary 5 Feb 2026 Bitcoin (BTC) Bitcoin Plunges to 15-Month Low as ETF Outflows Top $2.9 Billion Bitcoin has suffered a severe correction, dropping to a 15-month low below $72,000 ($71,986) with a daily decline of nearly 6%. The sell-off has wiped out approximately **$500 billion** in market cap since mid-January, driven by a relentless exodus of institutional capital. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen $2.9 billion in outflows over the past 12 days, signaling a significant "risk-off" rotation by asset managers. The market structure appears bearish, with $800 million in liquidations (mostly longs) exacerbating the downside. Despite the carnage, fundamental developments suggest long-term resilience. Cipher Mining's AI subsidiary attracted a staggering $13 billion in deman