SKHan personal page - To The Moon

SKHan

SKHan

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2021-03-08

Buy the dip is good.

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2022-11-03

Go Apple

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2022-08-30

Really

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2021-08-17

Opportunity to buy stocks

What the collapse of the Afghan government might mean for the U.S. stock market

2021-07-09

War

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2021-06-30

Keep going!

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2021-04-19

Come on China!

China: Still Recovering, But Losing Steam

2021-04-11

Power

Tesla China Deliveries Set EV Maker for Strong '21, Wedbush Says

2021-03-10

More please

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Go to Tiger App to see more news

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to buy stocks","listText":"Opportunity to buy stocks","text":"Opportunity to buy stocks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/839872495","repostId":"2159246902","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2159246902","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1629082874,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2159246902?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-16 11:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What the collapse of the Afghan government might mean for the U.S. stock market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2159246902","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"After 20 years in the shadows, the Taliban have returned to power in Afghanistan, raising questions ","content":"<p>After 20 years in the shadows, the Taliban have returned to power in Afghanistan, raising questions about stability in the Middle East and stoking some potential unrest in U.S. financial markets, amid a weekend that was rife with political developments.</p>\n<p>However, the impact to the stock market, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average , the S&amp;P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite Index trading at or near record highs , is unclear.</p>\n<p>\"It's a terrible situation for those U.S. folks who are still there,\" J.J. Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade, told MarketWatch in emailed comments on Sunday.</p>\n<p>\"As far as the markets go, we'll have to wait and see on the longer-term implications,\" he said.</p>\n<p>Futures, however, were tilting lower, with those for the S&amp;P 500 , the Dow and the Nasdaq-100 all showing modest declines, but hardly indicating that the market's bull run amid COVID-19 was in jeopardy.</p>\n<p>The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield was at 1.27% late Sunday in New York, attracting some haven bids, with prices of government debt rising and yields moving in the opposite direction.</p>\n<p>Taliban fighters took over Kabul , fearing retaliation in the new regime.</p>\n<p>President Joe Biden has rushed 5,000 troops to Kabul .</p>\n<p>The U.S. presence in Afghanistan, spanning the tenures of Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Biden, started following the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, and is now considered the U.S.'s longest military conflict, surpassing World War I, World War II and the Korean War combined .</p>\n<p>Biden's decision to remove troops from Afghanistan came after Trump's concessions to withdraw U.S. forces , had made the case that it would destabilize the tenuous Afghanistan leadership, leaving it vulnerable to insurgent groups.</p>\n<p>For the most part, stock-market investors have been mostly sanguine amid the long-running conflict that has cost an estimated $2.261 trillion, according to research from Brown University's Watson Institute of International Public Affairs , which also estimates that 241,000 people have died as a direct result of the war.</p>\n<p>The Dow is up by nearly 270%, the S&amp;P 500 has gained more than 300% and the Nasdaq Composite has climbed more than 700% since the fall of 2001.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/502f052f480a29bd870006528642c220\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"648\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>It's worth noting that the benchmark 10-year was yielding between 4% and 5% around that time.</p>\n<p>Historically, military conflict doesn't always have an impact on stocks, and war's influence, if any, on investors' psyches isn't always clear-cut. The context and economic and market environments are often a bigger driver.</p>\n<p>The U.S. was already in the throes of a recession when the attacks of 9/11 hit and the market initially dipped sharply after the attacks.</p>\n<p>Markets currently are attempting to claw back from the hit caused by COVID-19 and the spread of the delta variant, with questions about the policy plans by the Federal Reserve, and other central banks, at the front of investors' minds.</p>\n<p>Still, military aggressions may result in some investors turning to bets on defense contractors, which could see a boost if the animosities flare up.</p>\n<p>Northrop Grumman Corp.'s stock <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOC\">$(NOC)$</a> is up nearly 880% and Lockeed Martin Corp.'s shares <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMT\">$(LMT)$</a> are up 834% since 2001, while Boeing Co. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$(BA)$</a> is up 439%, and General Dynamics Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GD\">$(GD)$</a> is up over 422%, all of which outperformed the broader market during that period.</p>\n<p>So far this year, Lockheed's stock is underperforming the broader market, up 0.9%, as is Boeing's, which has gained 9.5% in the year to date.</p>\n<p>One popular way to play defense contractors broadly is the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a> U.S. Aerospace &amp; Defense <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ITA\">$(ITA)$</a> exchange-traded fund, which was created in 2006 and is up 13.7% in 2021 thus far. The SPDR S&amp;P Aerospace &amp; Defense ETF <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XAR.UK\">$(XAR.UK)$</a>, which kicked off in 2011, is up 7% year to date.</p>\n<p>Overall, strategists had already been warning about the possibility of a correction as concerns about peak earnings and economic growth grow and many analysts see the Afghan escalation as simply adding to a wall of worry.</p>\n<p>TDAmeritrade's Kinahan said that we \"should see a lift in volatility, and perhaps some fixed-income purchasing, as this puts an element of uncertainty into the market.\"</p>\n<p>But don't be surprised if the market's reaction to the possibility of military tensions is counterintuitive, as Ben Carlson, portfolio manager at Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC, has written in the past about the market's sometimes odd reaction to war , summing it up thusly.</p>\n<p>\"Markets don't always respond to geopolitical events the way you think.\"</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What the collapse of the Afghan government might mean for the U.S. stock market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat the collapse of the Afghan government might mean for the U.S. stock market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-16 11:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-collapse-of-the-afghan-government-might-mean-for-the-u-s-stock-market-11629081544?mod=newsviewer_click><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>After 20 years in the shadows, the Taliban have returned to power in Afghanistan, raising questions about stability in the Middle East and stoking some potential unrest in U.S. financial markets, amid...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-collapse-of-the-afghan-government-might-mean-for-the-u-s-stock-market-11629081544?mod=newsviewer_click\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-collapse-of-the-afghan-government-might-mean-for-the-u-s-stock-market-11629081544?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2159246902","content_text":"After 20 years in the shadows, the Taliban have returned to power in Afghanistan, raising questions about stability in the Middle East and stoking some potential unrest in U.S. financial markets, amid a weekend that was rife with political developments.\nHowever, the impact to the stock market, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average , the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite Index trading at or near record highs , is unclear.\n\"It's a terrible situation for those U.S. folks who are still there,\" J.J. Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade, told MarketWatch in emailed comments on Sunday.\n\"As far as the markets go, we'll have to wait and see on the longer-term implications,\" he said.\nFutures, however, were tilting lower, with those for the S&P 500 , the Dow and the Nasdaq-100 all showing modest declines, but hardly indicating that the market's bull run amid COVID-19 was in jeopardy.\nThe benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield was at 1.27% late Sunday in New York, attracting some haven bids, with prices of government debt rising and yields moving in the opposite direction.\nTaliban fighters took over Kabul , fearing retaliation in the new regime.\nPresident Joe Biden has rushed 5,000 troops to Kabul .\nThe U.S. presence in Afghanistan, spanning the tenures of Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Biden, started following the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, and is now considered the U.S.'s longest military conflict, surpassing World War I, World War II and the Korean War combined .\nBiden's decision to remove troops from Afghanistan came after Trump's concessions to withdraw U.S. forces , had made the case that it would destabilize the tenuous Afghanistan leadership, leaving it vulnerable to insurgent groups.\nFor the most part, stock-market investors have been mostly sanguine amid the long-running conflict that has cost an estimated $2.261 trillion, according to research from Brown University's Watson Institute of International Public Affairs , which also estimates that 241,000 people have died as a direct result of the war.\nThe Dow is up by nearly 270%, the S&P 500 has gained more than 300% and the Nasdaq Composite has climbed more than 700% since the fall of 2001.\n\nIt's worth noting that the benchmark 10-year was yielding between 4% and 5% around that time.\nHistorically, military conflict doesn't always have an impact on stocks, and war's influence, if any, on investors' psyches isn't always clear-cut. The context and economic and market environments are often a bigger driver.\nThe U.S. was already in the throes of a recession when the attacks of 9/11 hit and the market initially dipped sharply after the attacks.\nMarkets currently are attempting to claw back from the hit caused by COVID-19 and the spread of the delta variant, with questions about the policy plans by the Federal Reserve, and other central banks, at the front of investors' minds.\nStill, military aggressions may result in some investors turning to bets on defense contractors, which could see a boost if the animosities flare up.\nNorthrop Grumman Corp.'s stock $(NOC)$ is up nearly 880% and Lockeed Martin Corp.'s shares $(LMT)$ are up 834% since 2001, while Boeing Co. $(BA)$ is up 439%, and General Dynamics Corp. $(GD)$ is up over 422%, all of which outperformed the broader market during that period.\nSo far this year, Lockheed's stock is underperforming the broader market, up 0.9%, as is Boeing's, which has gained 9.5% in the year to date.\nOne popular way to play defense contractors broadly is the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense $(ITA)$ exchange-traded fund, which was created in 2006 and is up 13.7% in 2021 thus far. The SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF $(XAR.UK)$, which kicked off in 2011, is up 7% year to date.\nOverall, strategists had already been warning about the possibility of a correction as concerns about peak earnings and economic growth grow and many analysts see the Afghan escalation as simply adding to a wall of worry.\nTDAmeritrade's Kinahan said that we \"should see a lift in volatility, and perhaps some fixed-income purchasing, as this puts an element of uncertainty into the market.\"\nBut don't be surprised if the market's reaction to the possibility of military tensions is counterintuitive, as Ben Carlson, portfolio manager at Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC, has written in the past about the market's sometimes odd reaction to war , summing it up thusly.\n\"Markets don't always respond to geopolitical events the way you think.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SH":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SSO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":582,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143648719,"gmtCreate":1625793658331,"gmtModify":1703748625177,"author":{"id":"3573471135601329","authorId":"3573471135601329","name":"SKHan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edb016a1e76d427cf4bc5ef3a5d38289","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573471135601329","idStr":"3573471135601329"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"War","listText":"War","text":"War","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/143648719","repostId":"1164584412","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":577,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153323115,"gmtCreate":1625010760737,"gmtModify":1703849922147,"author":{"id":"3573471135601329","authorId":"3573471135601329","name":"SKHan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edb016a1e76d427cf4bc5ef3a5d38289","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573471135601329","idStr":"3573471135601329"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Keep going!","listText":"Keep going!","text":"Keep going!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153323115","repostId":"1122418477","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":673,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":379732599,"gmtCreate":1618794277411,"gmtModify":1704714912987,"author":{"id":"3573471135601329","authorId":"3573471135601329","name":"SKHan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edb016a1e76d427cf4bc5ef3a5d38289","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573471135601329","idStr":"3573471135601329"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Come on China!","listText":"Come on China!","text":"Come on China!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/379732599","repostId":"1195073129","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195073129","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618793612,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195073129?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-19 08:53","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"China: Still Recovering, But Losing Steam","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195073129","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Still recovering, but losing steam.\nSummary:\n\nChina’s economic growth surged to 18.3% y/y, broadly i","content":"<p><b>Still recovering, but losing steam.</b></p>\n<p><i>Summary:</i></p>\n<ul>\n <li>China’s economic growth surged to 18.3% y/y, broadly in line with expectations</li>\n <li>A big part of this is due to the lower base in Q1 2020</li>\n <li>Although the overall first quarter growth was driven by production, more recent data suggests that services are taking over, while production growth is slowing</li>\n <li>We think the recovery will lose steam as the initial pent up demand dies out and because policy support is being scaled back</li>\n <li>Moreover, trade will not help economic growth as much as it did in the past few months as China’s trading partners are slowing coming out of the pandemic and are requiring less working-from-home and other coronavirus-related exports from China.</li>\n <li>That is why we stick to our GDP forecast of 7.7% this year</li>\n <li>Despite the relative positive short term outlook, we remain gloomier for the long term as China’s ageing population, high debt load, weakening productivity growth and increasing international tensions will keep growth below the levels of the past 15 years</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Services are taking over</b></p>\n<p>China’s National Bureau of statistics (NBS) released Q1 GDP figures, which showed that GDP growth accelerated to 18.3% y/y, up from 6.5% y/y in Q4 2020 (figure 1). This was broadly in line with the Bloomberg consensus of 18.5% y/y although higher than our own estimate of 16.3% y/y. The main driver of the first quarter growth was industry and construction, which grew by 24.4% y/y, while services grew by 15.6% y/y (figure 2). However, the monthly data suggests that services growth has taken over, while production growth is coming down.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a16c41e87ae99aafd0e05332cd0e9a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"236\">Industrial production growth has moderated to 14.1% y/y in March (down from 35.1% y/y in January/February) while real retail sales growth has kept pace at 33% y/y (slightly down from 34% y/y growth in January/February). Admittedly, retail sales suffered more and longer than industrial production during the initial outbreak of the coronavirus in China, which means base affects play a more prominent role for retail sales than production (figure 3). However, a high frequency indicator such as cinema box office sales corroborates that domestic demand is holding up. Cumulative daily cinema box office sales were CNY 1.56 bln for the first 14 days of April, which is comparable to the CNY 1.54 bln level over the same period in 2019. Meanwhile, industrial capacity utilization has come down a bit, from 78% in Q4 2020, to 77.2% in Q1 2021 (figure 4). Another indicator that points to slower industrial activity going forward is fixed asset investments, which slowed to 25.6% y/y in March, from a 35% y/y increase in January/February (figure 4). Investment activity is a better indicator of businesses confidence in the future and is also more sensitive to the monetary policy stance (on which we will come back later). Taken together, this indicates that services have taken from industry as the growth driver, at least in the short term.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7131671893be06d8312159b9682373dc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"225\"><b>Unemployment is falling, but it’s of limited use as an indicator</b></p>\n<p>The surveyed urban unemployment rate came in at 5.3%, edging lower from 5.5% February, which is in line with the over economic recovery picture (figure 5).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cb31745751268bab1b2e97aa343ef06\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"412\">However, official unemployment figures do not adequately take into account the 300 mln rural migrant workers in China (which is about a third of China’s labour force) that are not counted as unemployed if they are not officially registered as an urban resident (because of the hukou registration system that). The flipside is that underlying improvements in the labour market are not seen in the unemployment figures as well (if rural migrants without hukou do go back to work, that will not be counted as a reduction in unemployment as they were not counted as being unemployed in the first place). In any case, official unemployment figures do not give an accurate picture of China’s labour market, so retail expenditure related data matters more to gauge the health of the economy.</p>\n<p><b>Trade reflects asynchronicity between China and the rest of the world</b></p>\n<p>From the trade side, we have already seen data coming out weaker than expected on the export side and stronger than expected on the income side in March. Namely, March Chinese exports grew by 30.6% y/y, and imports by 38.2% y/y in March, which means China’s net exports declined substantially to 14 bln USD (down from 38 bln USD in February).</p>\n<p>This partially reflects the fact that China was the first country in the world to experience the coronavirus outbreak, a couple of months before the virus spread to the rest of the world. As such its exports dipped initially due to supply side effects (since factories wore closed), but rebounded shortly after as China contained the virus relatively quickly, while the rest of the world was going closing down (figure 6). Now that the rest of the world is slowly starting to open up again, the initial boost for Chinese products is diminishing. In addition, China has benefitted from an initial surge in demand for ‘pandemic related products’ such as those related to working from home (computers, laptops and mobile phones) and protective equipment (such as face masks). That demand seems to be coming down (figure 7), which is reflected in the headline trade figures.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14eca7e5617600cf8ca1cbf871b870af\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"246\">We expect China’s exports to moderate further in the coming months as its trading partners slowly move back to normal and will require less products related to containing the coronavirus and working from home. That means net exports will likely be less of a driver for economic growth in China for the rest of the year.</p>\n<p><b>What do we expect for the coming year?</b></p>\n<p>For the coming quarters, we expect consumer demand growth to moderate as a considerable part of the “pent up demand” has already come to fruition, while production growth will slow. In addition, reduced policy support from the monetary as well as fiscal side will keep a lid on economic growth. From the fiscal side, Chinas recent government budget targets a fiscal deficit of 3.2% of GDP, which is relatively conservative. From the monetary side, China’s recent Five Year Plan targets growth of the money supply (M2) to be in line with nominal GDP growth,<b>while therehave been reportsthat China’s central bank (the PBoC) has asked banks to cap lending at 2020 levels</b>. Indeed, there are already hints that credit growth is slowing. Total Social Financing (TSF, a measure of broad credit growth in China) has dropped from 13.3% y/y in February to 12.3% in March, the lowest growth rate in TSF since April 2020.<i>We think this reduced policy support will keep a lid on economic growth this year.</i></p>\n<p><i><b>Altogether this GDP report and the observations above mean that we have not adjusted our GDP growth forecast for this year (7.7%).</b></i></p>\n<p>The main downside risks to our short term outlook are (i) increasing tensions between China and the US, EU, Japan, Australia or India. Such tensions could lead to sanctions on Chinese businesses and tariffs on Chinese exports, which will cut into China’s economic growth. In addition, the recent rise in SOE and corporate defaults could lead to financial instability. Finally, an unexpected resurgence of the coronavirus (for example via a new strain) will lead to containment measures again and hurt domestic demand.</p>\n<p>One possible upside risk is that China’s coronavirus restrictions are wound down faster than we currently envisage, boosting domestic demand quicker and more than we expect. China’s coronavirus restrictions were one of the toughest globally, but have now come down tobelow most G7 countries, while coronavirus cases are not materially increasing anymore. In that sense, similar to other countries, containment measures remain a key element to watch for the short term outlook.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bf83d246dc68c2fa32b36ba7e25e106\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"274\">Our longer term outlook remains that<b>economic growth will slow significantly in China (to 4% by 2025).</b>As we recently argued (here),<i><b>China is facing an ageing population (which is actually projected to start shrinking from 2030 onwards, according to US Census data), a very high debt load (335% of GDP), increasing tensions with several countries (which will hurt exports as well as limit needed imports) and weak productivity growth.</b></i></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China: Still Recovering, But Losing Steam</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina: Still Recovering, But Losing Steam\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-19 08:53 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-still-recovering-losing-steam?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Still recovering, but losing steam.\nSummary:\n\nChina’s economic growth surged to 18.3% y/y, broadly in line with expectations\nA big part of this is due to the lower base in Q1 2020\nAlthough the overall...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-still-recovering-losing-steam?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-still-recovering-losing-steam?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195073129","content_text":"Still recovering, but losing steam.\nSummary:\n\nChina’s economic growth surged to 18.3% y/y, broadly in line with expectations\nA big part of this is due to the lower base in Q1 2020\nAlthough the overall first quarter growth was driven by production, more recent data suggests that services are taking over, while production growth is slowing\nWe think the recovery will lose steam as the initial pent up demand dies out and because policy support is being scaled back\nMoreover, trade will not help economic growth as much as it did in the past few months as China’s trading partners are slowing coming out of the pandemic and are requiring less working-from-home and other coronavirus-related exports from China.\nThat is why we stick to our GDP forecast of 7.7% this year\nDespite the relative positive short term outlook, we remain gloomier for the long term as China’s ageing population, high debt load, weakening productivity growth and increasing international tensions will keep growth below the levels of the past 15 years\n\nServices are taking over\nChina’s National Bureau of statistics (NBS) released Q1 GDP figures, which showed that GDP growth accelerated to 18.3% y/y, up from 6.5% y/y in Q4 2020 (figure 1). This was broadly in line with the Bloomberg consensus of 18.5% y/y although higher than our own estimate of 16.3% y/y. The main driver of the first quarter growth was industry and construction, which grew by 24.4% y/y, while services grew by 15.6% y/y (figure 2). However, the monthly data suggests that services growth has taken over, while production growth is coming down.\nIndustrial production growth has moderated to 14.1% y/y in March (down from 35.1% y/y in January/February) while real retail sales growth has kept pace at 33% y/y (slightly down from 34% y/y growth in January/February). Admittedly, retail sales suffered more and longer than industrial production during the initial outbreak of the coronavirus in China, which means base affects play a more prominent role for retail sales than production (figure 3). However, a high frequency indicator such as cinema box office sales corroborates that domestic demand is holding up. Cumulative daily cinema box office sales were CNY 1.56 bln for the first 14 days of April, which is comparable to the CNY 1.54 bln level over the same period in 2019. Meanwhile, industrial capacity utilization has come down a bit, from 78% in Q4 2020, to 77.2% in Q1 2021 (figure 4). Another indicator that points to slower industrial activity going forward is fixed asset investments, which slowed to 25.6% y/y in March, from a 35% y/y increase in January/February (figure 4). Investment activity is a better indicator of businesses confidence in the future and is also more sensitive to the monetary policy stance (on which we will come back later). Taken together, this indicates that services have taken from industry as the growth driver, at least in the short term.\nUnemployment is falling, but it’s of limited use as an indicator\nThe surveyed urban unemployment rate came in at 5.3%, edging lower from 5.5% February, which is in line with the over economic recovery picture (figure 5).\nHowever, official unemployment figures do not adequately take into account the 300 mln rural migrant workers in China (which is about a third of China’s labour force) that are not counted as unemployed if they are not officially registered as an urban resident (because of the hukou registration system that). The flipside is that underlying improvements in the labour market are not seen in the unemployment figures as well (if rural migrants without hukou do go back to work, that will not be counted as a reduction in unemployment as they were not counted as being unemployed in the first place). In any case, official unemployment figures do not give an accurate picture of China’s labour market, so retail expenditure related data matters more to gauge the health of the economy.\nTrade reflects asynchronicity between China and the rest of the world\nFrom the trade side, we have already seen data coming out weaker than expected on the export side and stronger than expected on the income side in March. Namely, March Chinese exports grew by 30.6% y/y, and imports by 38.2% y/y in March, which means China’s net exports declined substantially to 14 bln USD (down from 38 bln USD in February).\nThis partially reflects the fact that China was the first country in the world to experience the coronavirus outbreak, a couple of months before the virus spread to the rest of the world. As such its exports dipped initially due to supply side effects (since factories wore closed), but rebounded shortly after as China contained the virus relatively quickly, while the rest of the world was going closing down (figure 6). Now that the rest of the world is slowly starting to open up again, the initial boost for Chinese products is diminishing. In addition, China has benefitted from an initial surge in demand for ‘pandemic related products’ such as those related to working from home (computers, laptops and mobile phones) and protective equipment (such as face masks). That demand seems to be coming down (figure 7), which is reflected in the headline trade figures.\nWe expect China’s exports to moderate further in the coming months as its trading partners slowly move back to normal and will require less products related to containing the coronavirus and working from home. That means net exports will likely be less of a driver for economic growth in China for the rest of the year.\nWhat do we expect for the coming year?\nFor the coming quarters, we expect consumer demand growth to moderate as a considerable part of the “pent up demand” has already come to fruition, while production growth will slow. In addition, reduced policy support from the monetary as well as fiscal side will keep a lid on economic growth. From the fiscal side, Chinas recent government budget targets a fiscal deficit of 3.2% of GDP, which is relatively conservative. From the monetary side, China’s recent Five Year Plan targets growth of the money supply (M2) to be in line with nominal GDP growth,while therehave been reportsthat China’s central bank (the PBoC) has asked banks to cap lending at 2020 levels. Indeed, there are already hints that credit growth is slowing. Total Social Financing (TSF, a measure of broad credit growth in China) has dropped from 13.3% y/y in February to 12.3% in March, the lowest growth rate in TSF since April 2020.We think this reduced policy support will keep a lid on economic growth this year.\nAltogether this GDP report and the observations above mean that we have not adjusted our GDP growth forecast for this year (7.7%).\nThe main downside risks to our short term outlook are (i) increasing tensions between China and the US, EU, Japan, Australia or India. Such tensions could lead to sanctions on Chinese businesses and tariffs on Chinese exports, which will cut into China’s economic growth. In addition, the recent rise in SOE and corporate defaults could lead to financial instability. Finally, an unexpected resurgence of the coronavirus (for example via a new strain) will lead to containment measures again and hurt domestic demand.\nOne possible upside risk is that China’s coronavirus restrictions are wound down faster than we currently envisage, boosting domestic demand quicker and more than we expect. China’s coronavirus restrictions were one of the toughest globally, but have now come down tobelow most G7 countries, while coronavirus cases are not materially increasing anymore. In that sense, similar to other countries, containment measures remain a key element to watch for the short term outlook.\nOur longer term outlook remains thateconomic growth will slow significantly in China (to 4% by 2025).As we recently argued (here),China is facing an ageing population (which is actually projected to start shrinking from 2030 onwards, according to US Census data), a very high debt load (335% of GDP), increasing tensions with several countries (which will hurt exports as well as limit needed imports) and weak productivity growth.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":585,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346574566,"gmtCreate":1618097074855,"gmtModify":1704706528639,"author":{"id":"3573471135601329","authorId":"3573471135601329","name":"SKHan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edb016a1e76d427cf4bc5ef3a5d38289","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573471135601329","idStr":"3573471135601329"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Power","listText":"Power","text":"Power","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/346574566","repostId":"1121480052","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121480052","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617979030,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1121480052?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-09 22:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla China Deliveries Set EV Maker for Strong '21, Wedbush Says","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121480052","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Tesla is on pace to deliver 850,000 vehicles in 2021, a strong trajectory, according to Wedbush analyst Dan Ives.Tesla's March deliveries in China create a strong trajectory for the electric-vehicle major into the rest of 2021, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives says.The China Passenger Car Association on Friday reported its March numbers, showing that Tesla delivered 35,500 vehicles, about double the February figure.\"The narrative is [clear: Despite] the haters and bears focused on China EV sales softeni","content":"<p>Tesla is on pace to deliver 850,000 vehicles in 2021, a strong trajectory, according to Wedbush analyst Dan Ives.</p><p>Tesla's&nbsp;March deliveries in China create a strong trajectory for&nbsp;the electric-vehicle major into the rest of 2021, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives says.</p><p>The China Passenger Car Association on Friday reported its March numbers, showing that Tesla delivered 35,500 vehicles, about double the February figure.</p><p>\"The narrative is [clear: Despite] the haters and bears focused on China EV sales softening in January, we have seen a storybook comeback from Tesla and domestic EV players NIO,&nbsp;Li Auto,&nbsp;Xpeng&nbsp;and others in this key region,\" Ives said in a Friday note.</p><p>Wedbush maintained its outperform rating and $1,000 price target.</p><p>Shares of the Palo Alto, Calif., company at last check were off 0.9% at $678.</p><p>Wedbush sees a run rate of 300,000 units delivered in China for the year, which would be the linchpin for the company hitting its 850,000-vehicle delivery goal worldwide.</p><p>\"As this green tidal wave hits its next phase globally, ... the Tesla EV demand story is just starting to play out,\" Ives said.</p><p>Additionally, lifting the 200,000 electric vehicle tax-credit ceiling, which was restored to Tesla and General Motors, and a likely $10,000 electric-vehicle tax rebate will be major catalysts for industry growth in the U.S., thanks to the focus on green energy from President Joe Biden's administration.</p><p>Last week, Tesla reported&nbsp;stronger-than-expected&nbsp;vehicle deliveries for the first quarter, paced by its midpriced Model 3 sedan and Chinese demand for its new Model Y SUV.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla China Deliveries Set EV Maker for Strong '21, Wedbush Says</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla China Deliveries Set EV Maker for Strong '21, Wedbush Says\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-09 22:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/investing/tesla-march-china-deliveries-strong-outlook-wedbush-says><strong>TheStreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla is on pace to deliver 850,000 vehicles in 2021, a strong trajectory, according to Wedbush analyst Dan Ives.Tesla's March deliveries in China create a strong trajectory for the electric-vehicle ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/tesla-march-china-deliveries-strong-outlook-wedbush-says\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/tesla-march-china-deliveries-strong-outlook-wedbush-says","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121480052","content_text":"Tesla is on pace to deliver 850,000 vehicles in 2021, a strong trajectory, according to Wedbush analyst Dan Ives.Tesla's March deliveries in China create a strong trajectory for the electric-vehicle major into the rest of 2021, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives says.The China Passenger Car Association on Friday reported its March numbers, showing that Tesla delivered 35,500 vehicles, about double the February figure.\"The narrative is [clear: Despite] the haters and bears focused on China EV sales softening in January, we have seen a storybook comeback from Tesla and domestic EV players NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng and others in this key region,\" Ives said in a Friday note.Wedbush maintained its outperform rating and $1,000 price target.Shares of the Palo Alto, Calif., company at last check were off 0.9% at $678.Wedbush sees a run rate of 300,000 units delivered in China for the year, which would be the linchpin for the company hitting its 850,000-vehicle delivery goal worldwide.\"As this green tidal wave hits its next phase globally, ... the Tesla EV demand story is just starting to play out,\" Ives said.Additionally, lifting the 200,000 electric vehicle tax-credit ceiling, which was restored to Tesla and General Motors, and a likely $10,000 electric-vehicle tax rebate will be major catalysts for industry growth in the U.S., thanks to the focus on green energy from President Joe Biden's administration.Last week, Tesla reported stronger-than-expected vehicle deliveries for the first quarter, paced by its midpriced Model 3 sedan and Chinese demand for its new Model Y SUV.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":545,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323691171,"gmtCreate":1615336024793,"gmtModify":1704781269911,"author":{"id":"3573471135601329","authorId":"3573471135601329","name":"SKHan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edb016a1e76d427cf4bc5ef3a5d38289","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573471135601329","idStr":"3573471135601329"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"More please","listText":"More please","text":"More please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323691171","repostId":"1118673419","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576533774112300","authorId":"3576533774112300","name":"BellaEng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dde1682b37a7cdb8f3de06cedadd8083","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3576533774112300","idStr":"3576533774112300"},"content":"That's right","text":"That's right","html":"That's right"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}