+Follow
信手而行
No personal profile
639
Follow
19
Followers
0
Topic
0
Badge
Posts
Hot
信手而行
2021-06-11
Tiger is here!
Taking history as a mirror, the interpretation and impact of soaring inflation in the United States
Go to Tiger App to see more news
{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3571652601037967","uuid":"3571652601037967","gmtCreate":1608558577648,"gmtModify":1706620738518,"name":"信手而行","pinyin":"xsexxinshouerxing","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9d2ece45f974d0ba428e082e91ea2d","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":19,"headSize":639,"tweetSize":154,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.10.23","exceedPercentage":"93.54%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-3","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"President Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $1,000,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.03.22","exceedPercentage":"93.41%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-1","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Debut Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4d0ca1da0456dc7894c946d44bf9ab","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f2f65e8ce4cfaae8db2bea9b127f58b","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5948a31b6edf154422335b265235809","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.05.27","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":181238648,"gmtCreate":1623395396984,"gmtModify":1704202447603,"author":{"id":"3571652601037967","authorId":"3571652601037967","name":"信手而行","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9d2ece45f974d0ba428e082e91ea2d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571652601037967","idStr":"3571652601037967"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here!","listText":"Tiger is here!","text":"Tiger is here!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181238648","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156453091?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Taking history as a mirror, the interpretation and impact of soaring inflation in the United States","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>On June 10, 2021, Eastern Time, the U.S. Department of Labor released inflation data for May.<b>In May, the U.S. CPI rose 5.0% year-on-year, and the core CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year, the largest increase since August 2008. Since the beginning of this year, the inflation rate in the United States has accelerated, and the Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting is just around the corner, and inflation concerns linger in the market.</b>We review several surges in U.S. inflation in history to better understand this inflation and its impact:</p><p><b>Since 1960, the US CPI has exceeded 5% year-on-year four times</b>(Figure 1). We conducted a review on the economic fundamentals and Fed policy during the CPI breaking 4%, breaking 5% and falling back (Table 1).</p><p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>: The economy is in recession, but the remaining temperature of the large government spending and fiscal stimulus in the early stage is still there, and inflation continues to rise. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy in 1970 to curb inflation.</p><p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>Under the double blow of the food crisis and the oil crisis, the U.S. economy has fallen into stagflation, and supply shocks and costs have pushed up inflation. The government's price control failed, and the monetary policy lacked independence and lagged behind, which failed to curb inflation successfully.</p><p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>After emerging from stagflation, the U.S. economy experienced rapid growth, but in 1987, the economic growth began to slow down, and the pressure of rising wages and prices appeared, and the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy.</p><p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>Soaring oil prices pushed up inflation and the financial crisis broke out. The primary task of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was to rescue the market, and inflation was not in its focus.</p><p><b>The causes of current inflation and the inflation of 1973-1982 are relatively similar, both driven by costs.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The main reasons for this surge in inflation are the base effect and supply shortages under the epidemic.</b>The U.S. CPI recorded 5.0% in May this year (the highest level since August 2008), but<b>From the perspective of the CPI index, the compound growth rate in May 2021 relative to May 2019 is only 2.5%.</b></p><p><b>For the interpretation of inflation this year, we focus on the two sub-items of used cars and rent.</b></p><p><b>One of the main drivers of inflation is used cars.</b>With the worsening of the epidemic in Southeast Asia, chip factories in many places have shut down, and the shortage of chips has caused car companies to cut production. The supply of new cars is insufficient, the demand for used cars has soared, and prices have soared (Figure 2). According to Manheim data, the price increase of used cars will exceed that of new cars in 2021 (Figure 3). In addition, other transportation-related price increases further expanded in May, and the price increase of transportation services doubled from 5.6% in April to 11.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The trend of rent price has an important impact on the interpretation of future inflation.</b>The weight of rent in the U.S. CPI is relatively high (about 30%). Although the growth rate of rent is relatively moderate compared with other sub-items (a year-on-year increase of 2.2% in May this year), the growth rate slope has steepened since the beginning of the year (Figure 4), we<b>It is expected that rents will continue to rise moderately in the future due to the shortage of supply</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What is the trend of inflation expectations?</b></p><p>From a consumer perspective, Michigan's expected inflation rate data shows that 2%<b>U.S. consumer five-year inflation expectations jumped to 3.0% in May 2021 from 2.7% last month (Figure 5), but are still lower than the 3.5% that the Federal Reserve can tolerate.</b></p><p>From the perspective of policymakers, as mentioned in our previous report, the Fed focuses on monitoring inflation expectations, and the key indicators are<b>Common Inflation Expectations Index (CIE), CIE is quarterly data, and data for the second quarter of 2021 is expected to be released at the end of this month.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How will inflation affect asset prices in the future?</b></p><p>We have analyzed the changes in the yields of the U.S. dollar, U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds in different time intervals after the CPI broke 4% among the above four major inflations (Table 2):<b>Inflation has a negative impact on the U.S. dollar and U.S. stocks. The former lags behind, while the latter is reflected within one month.</b>Interestingly, the impact of inflation on U.S. bond yields is irregular. For the research framework of U.S. bonds, please refer to our previous report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>Fed tightens monetary policy too quickly, geopolitical risks mount</p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter E and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you post a message \"Tiger is here\", you will receive 100 tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you will also receive a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[Seventh Anniversary Prize-winning Event] Tiger Search</a>Understand)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taking history as a mirror, the interpretation and impact of soaring inflation in the United States</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaking history as a mirror, the interpretation and impact of soaring inflation in the United States\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">川阅全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-10 21:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 10, 2021, Eastern Time, the U.S. Department of Labor released inflation data for May.<b>In May, the U.S. CPI rose 5.0% year-on-year, and the core CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year, the largest increase since August 2008. Since the beginning of this year, the inflation rate in the United States has accelerated, and the Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting is just around the corner, and inflation concerns linger in the market.</b>We review several surges in U.S. inflation in history to better understand this inflation and its impact:</p><p><b>Since 1960, the US CPI has exceeded 5% year-on-year four times</b>(Figure 1). We conducted a review on the economic fundamentals and Fed policy during the CPI breaking 4%, breaking 5% and falling back (Table 1).</p><p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>: The economy is in recession, but the remaining temperature of the large government spending and fiscal stimulus in the early stage is still there, and inflation continues to rise. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy in 1970 to curb inflation.</p><p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>Under the double blow of the food crisis and the oil crisis, the U.S. economy has fallen into stagflation, and supply shocks and costs have pushed up inflation. The government's price control failed, and the monetary policy lacked independence and lagged behind, which failed to curb inflation successfully.</p><p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>After emerging from stagflation, the U.S. economy experienced rapid growth, but in 1987, the economic growth began to slow down, and the pressure of rising wages and prices appeared, and the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy.</p><p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>Soaring oil prices pushed up inflation and the financial crisis broke out. The primary task of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was to rescue the market, and inflation was not in its focus.</p><p><b>The causes of current inflation and the inflation of 1973-1982 are relatively similar, both driven by costs.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The main reasons for this surge in inflation are the base effect and supply shortages under the epidemic.</b>The U.S. CPI recorded 5.0% in May this year (the highest level since August 2008), but<b>From the perspective of the CPI index, the compound growth rate in May 2021 relative to May 2019 is only 2.5%.</b></p><p><b>For the interpretation of inflation this year, we focus on the two sub-items of used cars and rent.</b></p><p><b>One of the main drivers of inflation is used cars.</b>With the worsening of the epidemic in Southeast Asia, chip factories in many places have shut down, and the shortage of chips has caused car companies to cut production. The supply of new cars is insufficient, the demand for used cars has soared, and prices have soared (Figure 2). According to Manheim data, the price increase of used cars will exceed that of new cars in 2021 (Figure 3). In addition, other transportation-related price increases further expanded in May, and the price increase of transportation services doubled from 5.6% in April to 11.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The trend of rent price has an important impact on the interpretation of future inflation.</b>The weight of rent in the U.S. CPI is relatively high (about 30%). Although the growth rate of rent is relatively moderate compared with other sub-items (a year-on-year increase of 2.2% in May this year), the growth rate slope has steepened since the beginning of the year (Figure 4), we<b>It is expected that rents will continue to rise moderately in the future due to the shortage of supply</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What is the trend of inflation expectations?</b></p><p>From a consumer perspective, Michigan's expected inflation rate data shows that 2%<b>U.S. consumer five-year inflation expectations jumped to 3.0% in May 2021 from 2.7% last month (Figure 5), but are still lower than the 3.5% that the Federal Reserve can tolerate.</b></p><p>From the perspective of policymakers, as mentioned in our previous report, the Fed focuses on monitoring inflation expectations, and the key indicators are<b>Common Inflation Expectations Index (CIE), CIE is quarterly data, and data for the second quarter of 2021 is expected to be released at the end of this month.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How will inflation affect asset prices in the future?</b></p><p>We have analyzed the changes in the yields of the U.S. dollar, U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds in different time intervals after the CPI broke 4% among the above four major inflations (Table 2):<b>Inflation has a negative impact on the U.S. dollar and U.S. stocks. The former lags behind, while the latter is reflected within one month.</b>Interestingly, the impact of inflation on U.S. bond yields is irregular. For the research framework of U.S. bonds, please refer to our previous report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>Fed tightens monetary policy too quickly, geopolitical risks mount</p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter E and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you post a message \"Tiger is here\", you will receive 100 tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you will also receive a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[Seventh Anniversary Prize-winning Event] Tiger Search</a>Understand)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">川阅全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11：粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07：走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09：油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示：美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2638,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":181238648,"gmtCreate":1623395396984,"gmtModify":1704202447603,"author":{"id":"3571652601037967","authorId":"3571652601037967","name":"信手而行","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9d2ece45f974d0ba428e082e91ea2d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571652601037967","authorIdStr":"3571652601037967"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here!","listText":"Tiger is here!","text":"Tiger is here!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181238648","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156453091?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Taking history as a mirror, the interpretation and impact of soaring inflation in the United States","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>On June 10, 2021, Eastern Time, the U.S. Department of Labor released inflation data for May.<b>In May, the U.S. CPI rose 5.0% year-on-year, and the core CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year, the largest increase since August 2008. Since the beginning of this year, the inflation rate in the United States has accelerated, and the Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting is just around the corner, and inflation concerns linger in the market.</b>We review several surges in U.S. inflation in history to better understand this inflation and its impact:</p><p><b>Since 1960, the US CPI has exceeded 5% year-on-year four times</b>(Figure 1). We conducted a review on the economic fundamentals and Fed policy during the CPI breaking 4%, breaking 5% and falling back (Table 1).</p><p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>: The economy is in recession, but the remaining temperature of the large government spending and fiscal stimulus in the early stage is still there, and inflation continues to rise. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy in 1970 to curb inflation.</p><p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>Under the double blow of the food crisis and the oil crisis, the U.S. economy has fallen into stagflation, and supply shocks and costs have pushed up inflation. The government's price control failed, and the monetary policy lacked independence and lagged behind, which failed to curb inflation successfully.</p><p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>After emerging from stagflation, the U.S. economy experienced rapid growth, but in 1987, the economic growth began to slow down, and the pressure of rising wages and prices appeared, and the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy.</p><p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>Soaring oil prices pushed up inflation and the financial crisis broke out. The primary task of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was to rescue the market, and inflation was not in its focus.</p><p><b>The causes of current inflation and the inflation of 1973-1982 are relatively similar, both driven by costs.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The main reasons for this surge in inflation are the base effect and supply shortages under the epidemic.</b>The U.S. CPI recorded 5.0% in May this year (the highest level since August 2008), but<b>From the perspective of the CPI index, the compound growth rate in May 2021 relative to May 2019 is only 2.5%.</b></p><p><b>For the interpretation of inflation this year, we focus on the two sub-items of used cars and rent.</b></p><p><b>One of the main drivers of inflation is used cars.</b>With the worsening of the epidemic in Southeast Asia, chip factories in many places have shut down, and the shortage of chips has caused car companies to cut production. The supply of new cars is insufficient, the demand for used cars has soared, and prices have soared (Figure 2). According to Manheim data, the price increase of used cars will exceed that of new cars in 2021 (Figure 3). In addition, other transportation-related price increases further expanded in May, and the price increase of transportation services doubled from 5.6% in April to 11.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The trend of rent price has an important impact on the interpretation of future inflation.</b>The weight of rent in the U.S. CPI is relatively high (about 30%). Although the growth rate of rent is relatively moderate compared with other sub-items (a year-on-year increase of 2.2% in May this year), the growth rate slope has steepened since the beginning of the year (Figure 4), we<b>It is expected that rents will continue to rise moderately in the future due to the shortage of supply</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What is the trend of inflation expectations?</b></p><p>From a consumer perspective, Michigan's expected inflation rate data shows that 2%<b>U.S. consumer five-year inflation expectations jumped to 3.0% in May 2021 from 2.7% last month (Figure 5), but are still lower than the 3.5% that the Federal Reserve can tolerate.</b></p><p>From the perspective of policymakers, as mentioned in our previous report, the Fed focuses on monitoring inflation expectations, and the key indicators are<b>Common Inflation Expectations Index (CIE), CIE is quarterly data, and data for the second quarter of 2021 is expected to be released at the end of this month.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How will inflation affect asset prices in the future?</b></p><p>We have analyzed the changes in the yields of the U.S. dollar, U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds in different time intervals after the CPI broke 4% among the above four major inflations (Table 2):<b>Inflation has a negative impact on the U.S. dollar and U.S. stocks. The former lags behind, while the latter is reflected within one month.</b>Interestingly, the impact of inflation on U.S. bond yields is irregular. For the research framework of U.S. bonds, please refer to our previous report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>Fed tightens monetary policy too quickly, geopolitical risks mount</p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter E and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you post a message \"Tiger is here\", you will receive 100 tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you will also receive a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[Seventh Anniversary Prize-winning Event] Tiger Search</a>Understand)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taking history as a mirror, the interpretation and impact of soaring inflation in the United States</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaking history as a mirror, the interpretation and impact of soaring inflation in the United States\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">川阅全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-10 21:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 10, 2021, Eastern Time, the U.S. Department of Labor released inflation data for May.<b>In May, the U.S. CPI rose 5.0% year-on-year, and the core CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year, the largest increase since August 2008. Since the beginning of this year, the inflation rate in the United States has accelerated, and the Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting is just around the corner, and inflation concerns linger in the market.</b>We review several surges in U.S. inflation in history to better understand this inflation and its impact:</p><p><b>Since 1960, the US CPI has exceeded 5% year-on-year four times</b>(Figure 1). We conducted a review on the economic fundamentals and Fed policy during the CPI breaking 4%, breaking 5% and falling back (Table 1).</p><p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>: The economy is in recession, but the remaining temperature of the large government spending and fiscal stimulus in the early stage is still there, and inflation continues to rise. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy in 1970 to curb inflation.</p><p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>Under the double blow of the food crisis and the oil crisis, the U.S. economy has fallen into stagflation, and supply shocks and costs have pushed up inflation. The government's price control failed, and the monetary policy lacked independence and lagged behind, which failed to curb inflation successfully.</p><p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>After emerging from stagflation, the U.S. economy experienced rapid growth, but in 1987, the economic growth began to slow down, and the pressure of rising wages and prices appeared, and the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy.</p><p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>Soaring oil prices pushed up inflation and the financial crisis broke out. The primary task of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was to rescue the market, and inflation was not in its focus.</p><p><b>The causes of current inflation and the inflation of 1973-1982 are relatively similar, both driven by costs.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The main reasons for this surge in inflation are the base effect and supply shortages under the epidemic.</b>The U.S. CPI recorded 5.0% in May this year (the highest level since August 2008), but<b>From the perspective of the CPI index, the compound growth rate in May 2021 relative to May 2019 is only 2.5%.</b></p><p><b>For the interpretation of inflation this year, we focus on the two sub-items of used cars and rent.</b></p><p><b>One of the main drivers of inflation is used cars.</b>With the worsening of the epidemic in Southeast Asia, chip factories in many places have shut down, and the shortage of chips has caused car companies to cut production. The supply of new cars is insufficient, the demand for used cars has soared, and prices have soared (Figure 2). According to Manheim data, the price increase of used cars will exceed that of new cars in 2021 (Figure 3). In addition, other transportation-related price increases further expanded in May, and the price increase of transportation services doubled from 5.6% in April to 11.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The trend of rent price has an important impact on the interpretation of future inflation.</b>The weight of rent in the U.S. CPI is relatively high (about 30%). Although the growth rate of rent is relatively moderate compared with other sub-items (a year-on-year increase of 2.2% in May this year), the growth rate slope has steepened since the beginning of the year (Figure 4), we<b>It is expected that rents will continue to rise moderately in the future due to the shortage of supply</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What is the trend of inflation expectations?</b></p><p>From a consumer perspective, Michigan's expected inflation rate data shows that 2%<b>U.S. consumer five-year inflation expectations jumped to 3.0% in May 2021 from 2.7% last month (Figure 5), but are still lower than the 3.5% that the Federal Reserve can tolerate.</b></p><p>From the perspective of policymakers, as mentioned in our previous report, the Fed focuses on monitoring inflation expectations, and the key indicators are<b>Common Inflation Expectations Index (CIE), CIE is quarterly data, and data for the second quarter of 2021 is expected to be released at the end of this month.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How will inflation affect asset prices in the future?</b></p><p>We have analyzed the changes in the yields of the U.S. dollar, U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds in different time intervals after the CPI broke 4% among the above four major inflations (Table 2):<b>Inflation has a negative impact on the U.S. dollar and U.S. stocks. The former lags behind, while the latter is reflected within one month.</b>Interestingly, the impact of inflation on U.S. bond yields is irregular. For the research framework of U.S. bonds, please refer to our previous report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>Fed tightens monetary policy too quickly, geopolitical risks mount</p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter E and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you post a message \"Tiger is here\", you will receive 100 tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you will also receive a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[Seventh Anniversary Prize-winning Event] Tiger Search</a>Understand)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">川阅全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11：粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07：走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09：油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示：美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2638,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
