BabyShark222 personal page - To The Moon

BabyShark222

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2021-08-18

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2021-08-17

Song song to jurong

China Foundation Association: Fund managers are not allowed to transfer benefits between different asset portfolios

2021-08-07

Sin

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2021-08-02

$amc$

Xinhua News Agency reporter "undercover" Naixue saw and heard: cockroaches don't care, labels change at will

2021-07-29

Singapore air

The Federal Reserve releases pigeons again: How long can Powell carry it hard?

2021-07-29

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2021-07-27

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Chinese Concept Stocks Exit from the US Market, Could This Happen?

2021-07-26

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2021-07-18

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Too strong! More than 20 A-share companies revised their performance expectations for the first half of the year!

2021-07-18

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CICC Overseas: US Stocks Earnings in the Second Quarter are Expected to Further Accelerate Growth

2021-07-18

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2021-07-18

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OPEC + agrees to boost oil production, ending current stalemate

2021-07-17

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portfolios","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123143185","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月17日讯，中基协发布《公开募集证券投资基金管理人及从业人员职业操守和道德规范指南》，自发布之日起实施。其中提出，基金管理人应当建立、健全关联交易、公平交易等各项制度，制定并完善关联方识别、关联交易","content":"<p>On August 17th, China Foundation Association issued the Guide to Professional Ethics and Ethics for Managers and Practitioners of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds, which will be implemented from the date of publication. 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It is proposed that the fund manager should establish and improve various systems such as related party transactions and fair transactions, formulate and improve the standards and procedures for related party identification, price determination of related party transactions and other matters, and shall not transfer benefits to third parties or between different asset portfolios. The fund manager shall treat the different asset portfolios under management fairly, and ensure that different asset portfolios get equal investment and trading opportunities through centralized trading, fair trading and other systems.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2dd670f9557c66480c84fc5e4bd415","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123143185","content_text":"8月17日讯，中基协发布《公开募集证券投资基金管理人及从业人员职业操守和道德规范指南》，自发布之日起实施。其中提出，基金管理人应当建立、健全关联交易、公平交易等各项制度，制定并完善关联方识别、关联交易价格确定等事项的标准和流程，不得向第三方输送利益，不得在不同资产组合之间输送利益。基金管理人应当公平对待所管理的不同资产组合，通过集中交易、公平交易等制度，确保不同资产组合获得平等的投资、交易机会。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4098,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891948208,"gmtCreate":1628323501004,"gmtModify":1703505090143,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571552996196002","authorIdStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sin","listText":"Sin","text":"Sin","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/891948208","repostId":"1136593672","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3255,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":804922385,"gmtCreate":1627917273447,"gmtModify":1703497915673,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571552996196002","authorIdStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"$amc$&nbsp;","listText":"$amc$&nbsp;","text":"$amc$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/804922385","repostId":"1133915369","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133915369","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627914060,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133915369?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-02 22:21","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Xinhua News Agency reporter \"undercover\" Naixue saw and heard: cockroaches don't care, labels change at will","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133915369","media":"新华社","summary":"如果只顾追求新奇营销和利润获取，而不能保证食品质量安全，终将无法经受时间考验。","content":"<p><div>Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, August 2 (Reporter Feng Songling, Zhao Hongyu) The summer holiday has arrived, and as a sought-after milk tea among young people, it will usher in the peak sales season. However, in the first half of this year, the market supervision department of Shanghai made a surprise inspection of milk tea shops of many brands, such as 1 point, Chabaidao, 7 points sweet, coco and Xiong Ji, and found that the phenomena of unclear food labels, uncovered food in refrigerators, substandard hygiene in operation areas, mixed items and food were widespread, which aroused social concern. What's the situation in Beijing? Recently, the reporter randomly applied for a job, \"undercover\" online celebrity milk tea shop \"Naixue's Tea\", and found that many of its branches also had cockroaches crawling...</p><p><a href=\"http://m.xinhuanet.com/2021-08/02/c_1127723129.htm\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"XHS1","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Xinhua News Agency reporter \"undercover\" Naixue saw and heard: cockroaches don't care, labels change at will</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXinhua News Agency reporter \"undercover\" Naixue saw and heard: cockroaches don't care, labels change at will\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新华社</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-02 22:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, August 2 (Reporter Feng Songling, Zhao Hongyu) The summer holiday has arrived, and as a sought-after milk tea among young people, it will usher in the peak sales season. However, in the first half of this year, the market supervision department of Shanghai made a surprise inspection of milk tea shops of many brands, such as 1 point, Chabaidao, 7 points sweet, coco and Xiong Ji, and found that the phenomena of unclear food labels, uncovered food in refrigerators, substandard hygiene in operation areas, mixed items and food were widespread, which aroused social concern. What's the situation in Beijing? Recently, the reporter randomly applied for a job, \"undercover\" online celebrity milk tea shop \"Naixue's Tea\", and found that many of its branches also had cockroaches crawling...</p><p><a href=\"http://m.xinhuanet.com/2021-08/02/c_1127723129.htm\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://m.xinhuanet.com/2021-08/02/c_1127723129.htm\">新华社</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/969153dc5674369c3b376e33d2fc3976","relate_stocks":{"02150":"奈雪的茶"},"source_url":"http://m.xinhuanet.com/2021-08/02/c_1127723129.htm","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133915369","content_text":"新华社北京8月2日电（记者冯松龄、赵鸿宇）暑期已至，作为深受年轻人追捧的奶茶，将迎来销售旺季。\n但上海市市场监管部门今年上半年对1点点、茶百道、7分甜、都可（coco）、熊姬等多个品牌奶茶店突击检查发现，食品标签不明确、冰箱内食物不加盖、操作区卫生不达标、物品与食品混放等现象普遍存在，引发社会关注。\n北京情况如何？近日，记者通过随机应聘，“卧底”网红奶茶店“奈雪的茶”，发现其多家分店也存在蟑螂乱爬、水果腐烂、抹布不洗、标签不实等问题。\n——蟑螂“不用管”，处理欠规范。\n前不久，记者应聘进入“奈雪的茶”北京西单大悦城店，成为一名实习茶饮师，负责面包区“上包”工作，即把后厨做好的面包从货架摆放到橱窗，并帮助顾客选购面包。\n上岗当天，记者看见一只指甲盖大小的蟑螂，从面包展柜底部爬向面包制作间。记者马上报告同组值班店员，但得到“没事，不用管它”的答复。\n“水吧和面包房有蟑螂”在许多店员看来十分“正常”。入职第二天，一些店员告诉记者，虽然店里要求很高，但“忙起来就顾不上那么多了”。\n——腐烂水果继续用，产品标签随意换。\n在“奈雪的茶”长安商场店，一些发黑的芒果摆放在后厨的桌子上，员工被提醒要去掉“黑色”部分继续使用，“不要浪费，稍处理一下即可”。\n记者看到，一些标签纸等杂物不小心掉进芒果泥里，杂物被挑拣出来后芒果泥继续使用。\n一款“软欧包魔法棒”系列产品，按要求应在4小时内售完。但一些员工会将未售完的产品及时更改时间标签再卖。\n奈雪饮品“霸气柠檬油柑”保质期只有一天。但在“奈雪的茶”北京西单大悦城店，生产标签为手工输入。因操作失误，出现过工作人员错将当天该品生产日期打成前一天的情况。直到晚上闭店时，店长才发现。工作人员在群中私下处理了此事，相关情况并未对消费者公示，也未采取任何补救措施。\n——手套不戴，抹布不洗。\n记者在工作中看到，员工用同一个手套，同时处理不同的食物，且几乎从不更换。遇到客流高峰期，店长等其他工作人员会直接到后厨上手操作，很多时候不戴手套直接处理食材。\n《中华人民共和国食品安全法》规定：“餐具、饮具和盛放直接入口食品的容器，使用前应当洗净、消毒，炊具、用具用后应当洗净，保持清洁。”\n记者在被安排“擦盘子”期间，多次询问店员一块抹布擦几十个盘子是否需清洗抹布，得到“完全不用”的答复。\n奶茶店要求擦拭桌面的毛巾4小时必须更换，每次更换后要打上时间标签。但记者在面包展区仅2天，就遇到了2次没有及时更换的情况。\n——日常卫生很随意，检查一来就重视。\n暗访现场，记者看到，不少员工直接踩着清洗食材的桌面，从较高橱柜中取食材，且未做任何清洁处理。\n但每次上级来检查时，店员们就会临时整理地面卫生，对平日较为繁杂的后厨进行系统清理，紧急清洗各种机器。\n“奈茶的雪”并非个案。北京市市场监管局此前在突击检查中发现，部分茶饮店使用过期的、不新鲜或“三无”物料等问题，并责令其整改。\n今年6月，南京市玄武区市场监管局公布的专项抽检结果显示，喜茶在微生物、糖类方面存在风险。而在2018年、2019年喜茶也均出现喝出“异物”等问题。\n为严查严管各种网红奶茶店不合格现象，国家市场监管总局在2018年6月12日发布《关于加强现制现售奶茶果蔬汁监督管理的通知》，提出了对网红饮品的具体管理、监督要求。\n中国农业大学食品学院副教授朱毅认为，奶茶店遍地，同质化严重，竞争激烈加上原材料涨价，同时外卖形态占比增加，不少消费者并没机会看实体店面，这就造成了店家忙于挣钱，疏于管理，应付监管，卫生成了共性问题。\n“如果只顾追求新奇营销和利润获取，而不能保证食品质量安全，终将无法经受时间的考验。”中国消费者权益保护法学研究会副秘书长陈音江认为，奶茶经营者除了打造“IP”，应更多把精力和成本花在产品质量把关上，为消费者提供安全放心的产品，才能越走越远。（参与采写：孙雨晨、简子奇）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02150":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3663,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801453829,"gmtCreate":1627529842261,"gmtModify":1703491784290,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571552996196002","authorIdStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Singapore air","listText":"Singapore air","text":"Singapore air","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801453829","repostId":"1132865544","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132865544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627528498,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1132865544?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-29 11:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Federal Reserve releases pigeons again: How long can Powell carry it hard?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132865544","media":"格隆汇","summary":"加息依然是一件遥远的事情。","content":"<p>At 2 o'clock in the morning of July 29th, the Federal Reserve once again released a pigeon statement.</p><p>The Fed's decision to leave Federal Funds rate unchanged at zero to 0.25% was in line with market expectations. The Federal Reserve reiterated that it will keep its $120 billion monthly asset purchase program unchanged and assess the economic performance in real time until the U.S. economy makes real-time progress. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stressed that rate hike is still a distant thing.</p><p>After setting the tone, the American financial market has received a lot of feedback:</p><p>The S&P 500 once quickly pulled up from a decline of 0.23% to 0.31%, and then the gains fell back. The same is true of the Nasdaq index, which rose sharply after the interest rate meeting and fell slightly in late trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/415e9f7af67436418b84d2153ff47374\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>the US Dollar Index reacted very violently, taking a quick dive from 92.7558 to 92.2391, a whopping 0.56% dive, setting a two-week low.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce2674278b7cc513646374db864237b7\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of gold, COMEX rapidly rose from $1,793 to $1,808, an increase of 0.83%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e246f73a677374c9fb27c2b560f1ebd\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, the changes in the Treasury Bond market in the United States are not obvious. As of the latest, the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond is 1.238%, which continues to remain at the same level as in February this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13bd988aa602cf0c3fff064a99638964\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Judging from the overall feedback of the US financial market, the results of this interest rate meeting are basically in line with market expectations, and there is no hawkish statement to radically turn the currency.</p><p>After the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision, Powell made many statements at the press conference:</p><p>Regarding the Delta virus problem, Powell said that in the case of the spread of the Delta strain, it can only be kept under observation. Last winter's pandemic did have an impact on employment, and the Delta strain may affect a full recovery in the labor market, but this year the Delta strain may have a smaller impact on the economy. As long as the COVID-19 pandemic is not over and no one can guarantee safety, it is necessary to ensure that vaccines are administered globally.</p><p>On the issue of inflation, Powell said that inflation has risen significantly, with inflation expected to exceed 2% in the coming months and will remain high in the coming months before moderating. Inflation remains on track to fall to the long-term target of 2%, likely to be higher and more sustained than expected. However, the long-term inflation expectation is still within the Fed's target. If the inflation path greatly and continuously exceeds the target, the Fed is ready to adjust its policy.</p><p>Powell said that the Fed has evaluated the considerations of adjusting bond purchases, but there is still a way to make substantial progress. The Fed will evaluate the economic progress in the next few meetings, so there is still a way to consider rate hike.</p><p>Powell said the Fed has yet to make any decisions on the timing of its quantitative easing reduction. For the first time, the meeting featured in-depth discussions on the timing, pace and composition of scaling back bond purchases, but no decisions were made. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has many different views on when tapering is appropriate, but few support reducing purchases of mortgage-backed bonds (MBS) first and then reducing purchases of U.S. debt, which will reduce both MBS and Treasury Bond purchases. FOMC members also have a lot of different views on the timing of tapering bond purchases. July was a good policy meeting, but no decision has been made on the time to reduce QE.</p><p>Although the Federal Reserve still holds on to monetary easing and continues the saying that \"inflation is only temporary\", under the pressure of reality, it still faces a considerable risk of a sharp currency turn.</p><p>In June this year, the U.S. CPI climbed to 5.4%, with an expected growth of 4.9%, compared with the previous value of 5%, the largest year-on-year increase since 2008. The core CPI of the United States rose by 4.5% year-on-year in June, and was expected to grow by 4.0%, compared with the previous value of 3.8%, a 30-year high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b247f2b5a95c6d780dfad44c8cf041d2\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Moreover, the Delta virus has cast a haze over the global economy. As of July 28, there were more than 195 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide and more than 4.18 million deaths.</p><p>In the past week, eight more countries and regions have detected the Delta COVID-19 variant, which has spread to 132 countries and regions.</p><p>Covid infections increased 8% worldwide last week to more than 3.8 million cases. The latest figures show a sharp rise in cases in the Americas and the western Pacific, with increases of 30% and 25%, respectively. That led to a sharp rise in Covid deaths overall, up 21% to more than 69,000 compared to last week.</p><p>In the past seven days, the U.S. has reported the highest number of new cases, with more than 500,000 new infections, a whopping 131% increase. Fauci, an American infectious disease expert, said on July 26th that given that half of the population in the United States has not completed the vaccination, according to the data modeling prediction, the worst scenario faced by the United States is that the daily death toll will reach 4,000, which is expected to be flat at the peak of last winter. The media in the United States predicted that the COVID-19 epidemic in the United States would reach its peak again around October.</p><p>The resurgence of the epidemic in the United States will have a certain impact on the better economic recovery momentum. On the one hand, inflation continues to rise; on the other hand, the foundation of economic recovery is very fragile, and it is facing the impact of the epidemic again, so that the economy will face the risk of \"stagflation\" next. This is the most difficult state of the economy for central bankers.</p><p>Of course, the deterioration of the epidemic situation in the United States will give the Federal Reserve more excuses to continue the QE policy. However, the essence behind it is to maintain the stability of the financial market at an absolute high level in history and safeguard the interests of Wall Street. But behind this mysterious operation, the biggest pressure stems from the ghost of inflation that has escaped Pandora's box. Inflation, which is already \"out of control\", will not disappear for nothing. Without monetary contraction, I am afraid it is a bit self-deceptive to expect inflation to naturally peak and fall sharply.</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Federal Reserve releases pigeons again: How long can Powell carry it hard?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Federal Reserve releases pigeons again: How long can Powell carry it hard?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-29 11:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>At 2 o'clock in the morning of July 29th, the Federal Reserve once again released a pigeon statement.</p><p>The Fed's decision to leave Federal Funds rate unchanged at zero to 0.25% was in line with market expectations. The Federal Reserve reiterated that it will keep its $120 billion monthly asset purchase program unchanged and assess the economic performance in real time until the U.S. economy makes real-time progress. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stressed that rate hike is still a distant thing.</p><p>After setting the tone, the American financial market has received a lot of feedback:</p><p>The S&P 500 once quickly pulled up from a decline of 0.23% to 0.31%, and then the gains fell back. The same is true of the Nasdaq index, which rose sharply after the interest rate meeting and fell slightly in late trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/415e9f7af67436418b84d2153ff47374\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>the US Dollar Index reacted very violently, taking a quick dive from 92.7558 to 92.2391, a whopping 0.56% dive, setting a two-week low.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce2674278b7cc513646374db864237b7\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of gold, COMEX rapidly rose from $1,793 to $1,808, an increase of 0.83%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e246f73a677374c9fb27c2b560f1ebd\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, the changes in the Treasury Bond market in the United States are not obvious. As of the latest, the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond is 1.238%, which continues to remain at the same level as in February this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13bd988aa602cf0c3fff064a99638964\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Judging from the overall feedback of the US financial market, the results of this interest rate meeting are basically in line with market expectations, and there is no hawkish statement to radically turn the currency.</p><p>After the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision, Powell made many statements at the press conference:</p><p>Regarding the Delta virus problem, Powell said that in the case of the spread of the Delta strain, it can only be kept under observation. Last winter's pandemic did have an impact on employment, and the Delta strain may affect a full recovery in the labor market, but this year the Delta strain may have a smaller impact on the economy. As long as the COVID-19 pandemic is not over and no one can guarantee safety, it is necessary to ensure that vaccines are administered globally.</p><p>On the issue of inflation, Powell said that inflation has risen significantly, with inflation expected to exceed 2% in the coming months and will remain high in the coming months before moderating. Inflation remains on track to fall to the long-term target of 2%, likely to be higher and more sustained than expected. However, the long-term inflation expectation is still within the Fed's target. If the inflation path greatly and continuously exceeds the target, the Fed is ready to adjust its policy.</p><p>Powell said that the Fed has evaluated the considerations of adjusting bond purchases, but there is still a way to make substantial progress. The Fed will evaluate the economic progress in the next few meetings, so there is still a way to consider rate hike.</p><p>Powell said the Fed has yet to make any decisions on the timing of its quantitative easing reduction. For the first time, the meeting featured in-depth discussions on the timing, pace and composition of scaling back bond purchases, but no decisions were made. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has many different views on when tapering is appropriate, but few support reducing purchases of mortgage-backed bonds (MBS) first and then reducing purchases of U.S. debt, which will reduce both MBS and Treasury Bond purchases. FOMC members also have a lot of different views on the timing of tapering bond purchases. July was a good policy meeting, but no decision has been made on the time to reduce QE.</p><p>Although the Federal Reserve still holds on to monetary easing and continues the saying that \"inflation is only temporary\", under the pressure of reality, it still faces a considerable risk of a sharp currency turn.</p><p>In June this year, the U.S. CPI climbed to 5.4%, with an expected growth of 4.9%, compared with the previous value of 5%, the largest year-on-year increase since 2008. The core CPI of the United States rose by 4.5% year-on-year in June, and was expected to grow by 4.0%, compared with the previous value of 3.8%, a 30-year high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b247f2b5a95c6d780dfad44c8cf041d2\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Moreover, the Delta virus has cast a haze over the global economy. As of July 28, there were more than 195 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide and more than 4.18 million deaths.</p><p>In the past week, eight more countries and regions have detected the Delta COVID-19 variant, which has spread to 132 countries and regions.</p><p>Covid infections increased 8% worldwide last week to more than 3.8 million cases. The latest figures show a sharp rise in cases in the Americas and the western Pacific, with increases of 30% and 25%, respectively. That led to a sharp rise in Covid deaths overall, up 21% to more than 69,000 compared to last week.</p><p>In the past seven days, the U.S. has reported the highest number of new cases, with more than 500,000 new infections, a whopping 131% increase. Fauci, an American infectious disease expert, said on July 26th that given that half of the population in the United States has not completed the vaccination, according to the data modeling prediction, the worst scenario faced by the United States is that the daily death toll will reach 4,000, which is expected to be flat at the peak of last winter. The media in the United States predicted that the COVID-19 epidemic in the United States would reach its peak again around October.</p><p>The resurgence of the epidemic in the United States will have a certain impact on the better economic recovery momentum. On the one hand, inflation continues to rise; on the other hand, the foundation of economic recovery is very fragile, and it is facing the impact of the epidemic again, so that the economy will face the risk of \"stagflation\" next. This is the most difficult state of the economy for central bankers.</p><p>Of course, the deterioration of the epidemic situation in the United States will give the Federal Reserve more excuses to continue the QE policy. However, the essence behind it is to maintain the stability of the financial market at an absolute high level in history and safeguard the interests of Wall Street. But behind this mysterious operation, the biggest pressure stems from the ghost of inflation that has escaped Pandora's box. Inflation, which is already \"out of control\", will not disappear for nothing. Without monetary contraction, I am afraid it is a bit self-deceptive to expect inflation to naturally peak and fall sharply.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/478013\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/478013","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1132865544","content_text":"7月29日凌晨2点，美联储再度放出鸽声表态。\n美联储决定将联邦基金利率维持在零至0.25%不变，符合市场预期。美联储重申将保持每月1200亿美元的资产购买计划不变，并实时评估经济表现，直至美国经济取得实时性进展。美联储主席鲍威尔强调，加息依然是一件遥远的事情。\n定调之后，美国金融市场对此反馈不小：\n标普500一度从下跌0.23%快速上拉至0.31%，后涨幅回落。纳斯达克指数同样如此，在利率会议之后有较大幅度的拉升，尾盘稍有回落。\n\n美元指数反应非常剧烈，从92.7558点快速跳水至92.2391，跳水幅度高达0.56%，创下两周新低。\n\n黄金方面，COMEX从1793美元快速拉升至1808美元，拉升幅度0.83%。\n\n不过，美国国债市场异动不明显。截止最新，10年期美国国债收益率为1.238%，继续维持与今年2月一个水平。\n\n从美国金融市场整体反馈来看，本次议息结果基本符合市场预期，没有出现要激进转弯货币的鹰派表态。\n在美联储公布利率决议后，鲍威尔在发布会上有诸多表态：\n对于德尔塔病毒问题，鲍威尔称，在德尔塔毒株传播的情况下，只能保持观察。去年冬天的疫情确实对就业产生了影响，德尔塔毒株可能会影响劳动力市场完全恢复，但今年德尔塔毒株对经济的影响可能会小一些。只要新冠肺炎疫情不结束，没有人能保证安全，有必要确保疫苗在全球范围内接种。\n对于通胀问题，鲍威尔表示，通货膨胀率显著上升，预计未来几个月的通胀率将超过2%，并将在未来几个月保持高位，然后再缓和。通胀仍有望降至2%的长期目标，可能会比预期的更高、更持久。而长期通胀预期仍在美联储的目标之内，如果通胀路径大幅且持续超出目标，美联储准备调整政策。\n鲍威尔称，美联储评估了调整购债的考虑因素，但离取得实质性进展还有一段距离，美联储将在接下来几次会议上评估经济进展，因此离考虑加息还有一段距离。\n鲍威尔表示，美联储还没有就缩减量化宽松的时机做出任何决定。此次会议首次就缩减购债规模的时间、速度和组成进行了深入讨论，但没有做出任何决定。关于何时缩债是合适的，美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）有很多不同的观点，不过几乎没有人支持先减少购买抵押支持债券（MBS），再缩减对美债的购买力度，将会同时缩减MBS和国债购买。FOMC成员们在缩减购债的时间方面也有很多不同的看法。7月份是一次不错的政策会议，但尚未决定减码QE的时间。\n虽然美联储依旧硬扛货币宽松，依旧延续“通胀只是暂时的”说法，但现实的压力之下，接下来仍然面临不小的货币急转弯的风险。\n今年6月，美国CPI攀升至5.4%，预期增长4.9%，前值5%，是自2008年以来的最大同比增幅。美国6月核心CPI同比增长4.5%，预期增长4.0%，前值3.8%，创30年新高。\n\n此外，德尔塔病毒的肆掠给全球经济蒙上了阴霾。截至7月28日，全球新冠确诊病例超过1.95亿例，死亡人数超过418万人。\n过去一周，又有8个国家和地区发现德尔塔新冠变种病毒，该变种病毒已传播至132个国家和地区。\n上周全球新冠感染病例增加了8%，超过380万病例。最新数据显示，美洲和西太平洋地区病例大幅上涨，增幅分别为30%和25%。这导致新冠死亡人数整体大幅上升，与上周相比上升了21%，达到6.9万多人。\n在过去7天里，美国报告的新病例数量最高，新增感染超过50万例，增幅高达131%。美国传染病专家福奇7月26日表示，鉴于美国半数人口仍未完成接种，根据数据建模预测，美国面临最坏情况是每天死亡人数达到4000人，预去年冬季的高峰期持平。而美国的媒体预测10月左右美国的新冠疫情将再度进入高峰期。\n美国方面的疫情卷土重来，会对较好的经济复苏势头造成一定冲击。一方面通胀持续攀升，另一方面经济恢复的基础非常脆弱，还再度面临疫情的冲击，以致于经济接下来面临“滞涨”风险。这是令央行们最为棘手的经济状态。\n当然，美国疫情的再度恶化会给美联储更多的托词，来延续QE政策。但背后实质是维稳处于历史绝对高位的金融市场，维护华尔街利益。但这种迷之操作背后，最大的压力源于已经逃出潘多拉魔盒的通胀幽灵。已经处于“失控”状态的通胀，不会平白无故消失。没有货币层面的收缩，期盼着通胀自然筑顶大幅回落恐怕有些自欺欺人。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801453050,"gmtCreate":1627529817770,"gmtModify":1703491783483,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571552996196002","authorIdStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Singapore airline","listText":"Singapore airline","text":"Singapore airline","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801453050","repostId":"1195922259","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809410569,"gmtCreate":1627386333851,"gmtModify":1703488873060,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571552996196002","authorIdStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Go","listText":"Go","text":"Go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809410569","repostId":"1120859674","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120859674","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"秦朔朋友圈是由中国著名媒体人、财经观察家秦朔牵头创立的一个新媒体与专业服务品牌，包括微信公众号、微博、视频节目、音频节目等。内容聚焦于经济、金融和商业领域，关注重点为全球和中国财经商业热点、企业家精神、创新与发明创造、商业文明探索等。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"秦朔朋友圈","id":"60","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e"},"pubTimestamp":1627352185,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120859674?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-27 10:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Chinese Concept Stocks Exit from the US Market, Could This Happen?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120859674","media":"秦朔朋友圈","summary":"谁都不希望坏事发生，但如果发生，也不至于措手不及。","content":"<p>Text/Jia Ming</p><p>On July 23rd, a document issued by the CPC Central Office entitled \"Opinions on Further Reducing the Burden of Homework and Off-campus Training for Students in Compulsory Education\" circulated on the Internet. The \"Opinions\" include measures such as \"capitalization\" operation of education and training institutions, and all discipline training institutions are prohibited from listing for financing. Overseas listed education stocks have fallen in response. For example, the share price of New Oriental on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was once \"halved\" (New Oriental S, closed down 40.61% on the 23rd and 47.02% on the 26th; New Oriental Online closed down 28.07% and 33.45% on the 23rd and 26th respectively; New Oriental closed down 54.22% on the 23rd in the US stock market). On the 23rd, Gaotu fell 63.26% in the US stock market, and TAL fell more than 70%.</p><p>The official has officially announced the document on the evening of July 24th, and many media have forwarded it in full. Interested readers can look for it.</p><p>Today's article does not analyze Circular No.40 of the Central Office, but wants to explore two issues.</p><p>First, why do so many Chinese companies choose to go public in the United States?</p><p>Second, considering Sino-US relations, Ruixing's fraud, Didi's removal from the shelves and other events, what is the future fate of these Chinese stocks listed overseas?</p><p><b>Main reasons</b></p><p>Chinese companies are more enthusiastic about listing on US stock exchanges than any other non-US company, even after the apparent chill in US-China relations.</p><p>In 2019, 32 companies went public in the United States, compared to 34 in 2020, and in the first half of 2021, 37 companies completed listing in the United States. According to wind data, as of July 2021, there were 286 Chinese companies listed in the United States — including those registered in offshore centers such as Hong Kong, China or the Cayman Islands, but most of their revenue and profits came from mainland China — in fact, most Chinese companies listed in the United States basically adopted this listing method.</p><p>Since 2018, while suppressing Chinese technology companies, the United States has raised its audit requirements for Chinese companies listed in the United States. The overall environment for Chinese companies to go public in the United States is not good, so why do Chinese companies still resolutely choose to go public in the United States?</p><p>Several well-known reasons are;</p><p>First, the capital market construction in the United States is relatively early, and the financing system and laws and regulations are relatively more mature and perfect. From the perspective of the overall financing environment, the United States is generally optimistic about Internet companies and high-tech companies. If the same stock is listed in the United States, it is relatively easy to obtain a higher valuation and raise more funds.</p><p>Second, and more importantly, the US capital market adopts a registration system, and there is no profit threshold for companies to be listed. As long as your company's business grows rapidly and occupies a large market share, it can go public even if it loses money. China adopts the audit system, and the necessary condition for applying for A-share listing is to make profits for three consecutive years.</p><p>Internet businesses are growing fast, so they are always very short of money. Some Internet companies, perhaps only a few years after their establishment, have become unicorns with a valuation of more than one billion. At this time, facing the pressure of investors to realize cash and further development, they have to prepare to go public for large-scale fundraising. However, most companies may have just begun to make profits at this time, or even not yet, so they can't meet the conditions of making profits for three consecutive years, and they can't go public for financing in the A-share market. If you wait for two or three years before going public to raise funds, you may not only miss the best development opportunity, but also fail to raise funds, and it is unknown whether the enterprise can survive. Therefore, we can only go abroad.</p><p>Third, the length of China's listing approval cycle is uncertain. When the listing approval is suspended and the company wants to go public, the whole process may take three or four years. Time is money, and many enterprises can't afford to wait.</p><p>The above three reasons, especially the second and third, should be the two main reasons for Chinese companies to go public in the United States. But beyond that, here are a few reasons that shouldn't be overlooked.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24b35bd20e43d6773e8057d5090c82e8\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Reason of origin</b></p><p>We often say now that Chinese Internet companies are doing very well. We usually call around 2000 the first year of China's Internet. But we can't forget that in the early days of the development of the Internet, few people could understand this format, so it was impossible for these enterprises to get bank loans.</p><p>In fact, it is difficult to get bank loans not only in the initial stage of the Internet, but also in the initial stage of all enterprises. Because of the strict loan approval procedures and natural risk aversion, commercial banks would rather earn less loan interest than lend money to stable enterprises.</p><p>Banks are not institutions that invest in start-ups. Investing in start-ups should be something that angel investors and venture capital institutions do. At that time, there was no venture capital (VC) and private equity (PE) in China. These Internet companies can't find money in China, but they need money for development. What should they do? Only overseas capital can be introduced.</p><p>You know, in the early days of our reform and opening up, we also exchanged domestic markets for overseas capital and technology. Therefore, as Deng Gong said, it doesn't matter if it is a black cat or a white cat, if it can catch mice, it is a good cat. Capital is neutral, regardless of whether it is good or bad. If only geography is used as the classification basis, it is certainly possible. But if you want to make a value judgment, it is more important to look at the specific things that these capitals are used for, rather than the origins of these capitals.</p><p>Therefore, many Internet giants in China (in order to avoid unnecessary trouble, I won't give examples here) were Sino-foreign joint ventures at the beginning of their establishment. This begs another question: the question of the legitimacy of the VIE architecture.</p><p>Variable Interest Entity Structure, referred to as VIE Structure, usually referred to as \"Agreement Control\", refers to a listed Entity registered overseas by a proposed listed company, which is separated from the mainland business operating Entity, and the overseas listed Entity controls the domestic business operating Entity through an agreement, and transfers its income and profits to the overseas company. VIE architecture has derived many different forms, but the essence is the same, so it will not be expanded here.</p><p>Because China's laws have strict restrictions on the industry access of overseas funds in \"information transmission, software and information technology services\", overseas capital is not allowed to directly invest in telecommunications and Internet-related enterprises. Of course, companies in these industries are not allowed to directly raise funds or go public overseas. Therefore, these enterprises adopt VIE architecture to bypass supervision.</p><p>Of course, regulation knows this form. The reason why it is not completely forbidden is that on the one hand, this structure is not \"obviously illegal\", and on the other hand, it is certainly a kind of regulatory wisdom.</p><p>However, if this kind of enterprise is listed in China, it still has to strictly follow the regulatory requirements of listing. Then the legality of this VIE structure becomes a problem, so it can't be listed directly in China.</p><p>This means that the roots of some Internet companies are crooked from the day they were born. If the root is not crooked, you can't survive, and if you survive, you will leave a bad background-\"lack of money-introduce foreign capital-become a joint venture-adopt a VIE structure-the legality of domestic listing is problematic-overseas listing\".</p><p>It is much better now. China's multi-level capital market construction is becoming more and more perfect, and there are more RMB venture capital and private placement. The problem of not finding money in China has been greatly alleviated.</p><p>Wang Xiaobo said in \"The Silent Majority\" that it is too easy to make value judgments. If we are a male rabbit, we naturally know that the big bad wolf is bad and the female rabbit is good. But the rabbit doesn't know how to memorize the multiplication table. Figuring out the above background is a bit like a multiplication table. No matter what kind of value evaluation we make on Internet companies going public overseas-how to evaluate it is our freedom-at least our judgment is based on the complete ins and outs of things.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f4d1b82e56c3a630026ec35cf9663d6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Other reasons</b></p><p>There are two other reasons, respectively, the free circulation of capital and the pursuit of different rights of the same share.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, because many enterprises are funded by international private equity funds and venture capital companies, and China implements foreign exchange control and lists at home, it will be troublesome for venture capital funds to make profits and have exchange risks, so they also have the incentive to encourage business owners to list abroad. Some business owners have the ambition of being multinational enterprises and are willing to go public in the United States, which is not only conducive to expanding the popularity of enterprises, but also conducive to the global layout of fund-raising and assets of enterprises, achieving multiple goals with one stone.</p><p>To be more verbose, private equity and venture capital eat the bowl of rice with high risk and high return. As long as they can make money in compliance with the law, it can't be said that there is anything wrong with people making a profit and exiting after the company goes public. Of course, if you violate the law and discipline, you must be held accountable according to law.</p><p>Some people may ask that when listed in Hong Kong, capital can also flow freely. Listed company entrepreneurs and early investors can easily convert Hong Kong dollars raised by listing into US dollars or any other currency. This leads to another reason, \"the same shares have the same rights\" and \"the same shares have different rights\".</p><p>Companies listed in mainland China should strictly abide by the regulations of the same shares and the same rights, that is, how many shares you own in the company will have as many voting rights when voting for major events. This is the reason why many companies don't want to go public, and are afraid that they will not own many shares after listing, which will lead to the company founders being speechless on the board of directors or even being kicked out. This is also the reason for the previously popular \"barbarian\" malicious takeovers, as long as someone else holds more shares than you, even if you are the founder, you will be kicked out.</p><p>Before 2018, listing in Hong Kong was also a requirement of the same shares and rights. In 2018, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange introduced a reform that allows technology companies and companies in the life sciences to adopt an American-style structure of same shares with different rights. Since then, more and more Chinese companies have chosen to list in Hong Kong, or in both Hong Kong, China and New York, USA.</p><p>Not that equal shares and equal rights are bad. Everything has pros and cons. Founders with the same shares and rights are required to be cautious about listing, because they may be overlooked or even kicked out of the decision-making level after listing. However, cautious listing may slow down the development of enterprises and miss the golden development period.</p><p>Going public in the United States provides an option of different rights for the same shares, which means that even if you hold less than 50% of the equity of the company, even if you only hold 10% or even less, you can still maintain control of the company. Although it is convenient for enterprises to go public and raise funds, it can easily lead to the problem of \"insider control\". As the actual controller of an enterprise is not the largest shareholder, when there is a conflict between the interests of shareholders and the interests of operators, the actual controller will easily pretend to be public for personal gain, enrich his own pockets, or adopt some risky business behaviors. In some countries, identical rights are considered to be one of the root causes of corporate governance problems.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c43b7c0037505392758b59f3788cc488\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Crisis of trust</b></p><p>The previous article basically explains why Chinese enterprises are more willing to go public in the United States. There are various reasons, including regulatory system and business operation. Generally speaking, it is a very normal business behavior of seeking advantages and avoiding disadvantages.</p><p>However, after the escalation of the Sino-US trade conflict, the United States has successively sanctioned Chinese companies, some of which are Chinese companies listed in the United States. This increases the risk of listing in the United States. Even if some companies that have already listed are not sanctioned, the risks brought by changes in international relations between the two countries are increasing. In 2020, Luckin's financial fraud aggravated the trust crisis of Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>The Trump administration took the opportunity to sign the Foreign Company Accountability Act before the end of its term, threatening to delist Chinese listed companies from American stock exchanges if China fails to allow the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) to obtain audit working papers for three consecutive years.</p><p>On June 22, 2021, the U.S. Senate passed another proposal, proposing that the delisting time could be advanced by one year.</p><p>The immediate reason for the U.S. threatening to delist Chinese companies is to protect U.S. investors from losses caused by accounting fraud similar to that of Luckin last year. To be honest, this actually seems quite reasonable. Financial fraud is a crime. Not only the United States, but we believe that the capital market of any country should crack down on financial fraud.</p><p>But here are a few questions.</p><p>First, China and the United States have been negotiating on the issue of audit papers, but why are they suddenly turning their faces now?</p><p>In 2009, China issued a law requiring enterprises to \"store the working papers and other files formed by securities companies and securities service institutions that provide related securities services in China in the process of issuing and listing securities overseas\".</p><p>In 2013, PCAOB of China and the United States signed a memorandum of understanding on cooperation, and provided PCAOB with audit working papers of four enterprises.</p><p>From 2016 to 2019, the regulatory authorities of both sides have also made some cooperative attempts on how to effectively inspect. When the relationship is good, there is business and quantity, but when the relationship is bad, it is a bit of turning your face and denying people.</p><p>Second, whether providing accounting papers is an effective form of combating financial fraud.</p><p>For example, in 2002, the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 were greatly revised in response to the financial fraud incident of Enron Company, forming the Public Company Accounting Reform and Investor Protection Act of 2002, or Sarbanes-Oxley Act for short, which made many new provisions in corporate governance, Accounting professional supervision and securities market supervision. In fact, this is conducive to protecting both listed companies and investors, which is a good thing.</p><p>But the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board established after the Sarbanes-Oxley Act can already review the audit papers of listed companies, but then there are accounting problems with WorldCom, Southern Health Care, Freddie Mac, AIG and Lehman Brothers. However, most serious accounting fraud incidents are often found by professional short-selling organizations by using \"private unannounced visits\" to investigate the company's business flow on the spot, and audit companies will not use these means.</p><p>The U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) may not necessarily be able to identify these financial frauds by auditing working papers. In other words, audit papers may help to combat financial fraud, but they are not an essential way, and they are not always 100 percent effective.</p><p>Third, the important target of the Foreign Company Accountability Act is Chinese stock companies, but it is not the first day that the United States knows that Chinese listed companies adopt VIE structure. If the United States thinks that there is a problem with the VIE structure, it can directly ban the listing of Chinese stocks.</p><p>When the relationship between the two countries is friendly, the audit paper is not a very important issue. The two countries can negotiate and solve it, and cooperate in supervision because of mutual trust. Now this mutual trust is gone.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e2b71cb10ca93f5741a9e9b49df382\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Prepare for a rainy day</b></p><p>We hope that Sino-US relations can return to friendship in the new competitive relationship. But if the gap between the two countries gets wider and wider, then Chinese companies listed in the United States really need to be prepared.</p><p>For China and the United States, the delisting of Chinese companies from the U.S. market does not seem to be an unbearable price.</p><p>As far as the United States is concerned, although the volatility of Chinese stocks is relatively large, the overall performance of Chinese stocks is better than that of most American listed companies, and the losses caused by financial fraud of Chinese enterprises are far smaller than those of American companies such as Enron and Lehman.</p><p>If Chinese stocks are delisted, American investors will lose a better investment target. However, after the delisting of Chinese stocks, they can go to Hong Kong stocks and A shares to be listed. If American investors are still optimistic about Chinese enterprises, they can continue to buy and invest in Hong Kong through the Qualified Foreign Investor Mechanism (QFII) or the interconnection mechanism.</p><p>As far as China is concerned, China is a country with high savings and a net exporter of capital, so it is not necessary to list in the United States to raise funds. China's own capital market is also gradually improving, and the registration system is also being piloted on the Science and Technology Innovation Board. It is likely that it will be fully rolled out in the near future. In the future, the convenience of Chinese enterprises listing in China will be greatly improved. Although the valuation of listing in A shares or Hong Kong stocks is likely to shrink, this is not an unacceptable challenge for the whole country.</p><p>Therefore, if Chinese companies are delisted in the United States, it is not an unacceptable event for both countries, and their fate will be more influenced by international relations and historical processes. At this time, what enterprises should do is to take precautions and prevent problems before they happen.</p><p>No one wants bad things to happen, but if they do, they will not be caught off guard.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese Concept Stocks Exit from the US Market, Could This Happen?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese Concept Stocks Exit from the US Market, Could This Happen?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/60\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">秦朔朋友圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-27 10:16</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Text/Jia Ming</p><p>On July 23rd, a document issued by the CPC Central Office entitled \"Opinions on Further Reducing the Burden of Homework and Off-campus Training for Students in Compulsory Education\" circulated on the Internet. The \"Opinions\" include measures such as \"capitalization\" operation of education and training institutions, and all discipline training institutions are prohibited from listing for financing. Overseas listed education stocks have fallen in response. For example, the share price of New Oriental on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was once \"halved\" (New Oriental S, closed down 40.61% on the 23rd and 47.02% on the 26th; New Oriental Online closed down 28.07% and 33.45% on the 23rd and 26th respectively; New Oriental closed down 54.22% on the 23rd in the US stock market). On the 23rd, Gaotu fell 63.26% in the US stock market, and TAL fell more than 70%.</p><p>The official has officially announced the document on the evening of July 24th, and many media have forwarded it in full. Interested readers can look for it.</p><p>Today's article does not analyze Circular No.40 of the Central Office, but wants to explore two issues.</p><p>First, why do so many Chinese companies choose to go public in the United States?</p><p>Second, considering Sino-US relations, Ruixing's fraud, Didi's removal from the shelves and other events, what is the future fate of these Chinese stocks listed overseas?</p><p><b>Main reasons</b></p><p>Chinese companies are more enthusiastic about listing on US stock exchanges than any other non-US company, even after the apparent chill in US-China relations.</p><p>In 2019, 32 companies went public in the United States, compared to 34 in 2020, and in the first half of 2021, 37 companies completed listing in the United States. According to wind data, as of July 2021, there were 286 Chinese companies listed in the United States — including those registered in offshore centers such as Hong Kong, China or the Cayman Islands, but most of their revenue and profits came from mainland China — in fact, most Chinese companies listed in the United States basically adopted this listing method.</p><p>Since 2018, while suppressing Chinese technology companies, the United States has raised its audit requirements for Chinese companies listed in the United States. The overall environment for Chinese companies to go public in the United States is not good, so why do Chinese companies still resolutely choose to go public in the United States?</p><p>Several well-known reasons are;</p><p>First, the capital market construction in the United States is relatively early, and the financing system and laws and regulations are relatively more mature and perfect. From the perspective of the overall financing environment, the United States is generally optimistic about Internet companies and high-tech companies. If the same stock is listed in the United States, it is relatively easy to obtain a higher valuation and raise more funds.</p><p>Second, and more importantly, the US capital market adopts a registration system, and there is no profit threshold for companies to be listed. As long as your company's business grows rapidly and occupies a large market share, it can go public even if it loses money. China adopts the audit system, and the necessary condition for applying for A-share listing is to make profits for three consecutive years.</p><p>Internet businesses are growing fast, so they are always very short of money. Some Internet companies, perhaps only a few years after their establishment, have become unicorns with a valuation of more than one billion. At this time, facing the pressure of investors to realize cash and further development, they have to prepare to go public for large-scale fundraising. However, most companies may have just begun to make profits at this time, or even not yet, so they can't meet the conditions of making profits for three consecutive years, and they can't go public for financing in the A-share market. If you wait for two or three years before going public to raise funds, you may not only miss the best development opportunity, but also fail to raise funds, and it is unknown whether the enterprise can survive. Therefore, we can only go abroad.</p><p>Third, the length of China's listing approval cycle is uncertain. When the listing approval is suspended and the company wants to go public, the whole process may take three or four years. Time is money, and many enterprises can't afford to wait.</p><p>The above three reasons, especially the second and third, should be the two main reasons for Chinese companies to go public in the United States. But beyond that, here are a few reasons that shouldn't be overlooked.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24b35bd20e43d6773e8057d5090c82e8\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Reason of origin</b></p><p>We often say now that Chinese Internet companies are doing very well. We usually call around 2000 the first year of China's Internet. But we can't forget that in the early days of the development of the Internet, few people could understand this format, so it was impossible for these enterprises to get bank loans.</p><p>In fact, it is difficult to get bank loans not only in the initial stage of the Internet, but also in the initial stage of all enterprises. Because of the strict loan approval procedures and natural risk aversion, commercial banks would rather earn less loan interest than lend money to stable enterprises.</p><p>Banks are not institutions that invest in start-ups. Investing in start-ups should be something that angel investors and venture capital institutions do. At that time, there was no venture capital (VC) and private equity (PE) in China. These Internet companies can't find money in China, but they need money for development. What should they do? Only overseas capital can be introduced.</p><p>You know, in the early days of our reform and opening up, we also exchanged domestic markets for overseas capital and technology. Therefore, as Deng Gong said, it doesn't matter if it is a black cat or a white cat, if it can catch mice, it is a good cat. Capital is neutral, regardless of whether it is good or bad. If only geography is used as the classification basis, it is certainly possible. But if you want to make a value judgment, it is more important to look at the specific things that these capitals are used for, rather than the origins of these capitals.</p><p>Therefore, many Internet giants in China (in order to avoid unnecessary trouble, I won't give examples here) were Sino-foreign joint ventures at the beginning of their establishment. This begs another question: the question of the legitimacy of the VIE architecture.</p><p>Variable Interest Entity Structure, referred to as VIE Structure, usually referred to as \"Agreement Control\", refers to a listed Entity registered overseas by a proposed listed company, which is separated from the mainland business operating Entity, and the overseas listed Entity controls the domestic business operating Entity through an agreement, and transfers its income and profits to the overseas company. VIE architecture has derived many different forms, but the essence is the same, so it will not be expanded here.</p><p>Because China's laws have strict restrictions on the industry access of overseas funds in \"information transmission, software and information technology services\", overseas capital is not allowed to directly invest in telecommunications and Internet-related enterprises. Of course, companies in these industries are not allowed to directly raise funds or go public overseas. Therefore, these enterprises adopt VIE architecture to bypass supervision.</p><p>Of course, regulation knows this form. The reason why it is not completely forbidden is that on the one hand, this structure is not \"obviously illegal\", and on the other hand, it is certainly a kind of regulatory wisdom.</p><p>However, if this kind of enterprise is listed in China, it still has to strictly follow the regulatory requirements of listing. Then the legality of this VIE structure becomes a problem, so it can't be listed directly in China.</p><p>This means that the roots of some Internet companies are crooked from the day they were born. If the root is not crooked, you can't survive, and if you survive, you will leave a bad background-\"lack of money-introduce foreign capital-become a joint venture-adopt a VIE structure-the legality of domestic listing is problematic-overseas listing\".</p><p>It is much better now. China's multi-level capital market construction is becoming more and more perfect, and there are more RMB venture capital and private placement. The problem of not finding money in China has been greatly alleviated.</p><p>Wang Xiaobo said in \"The Silent Majority\" that it is too easy to make value judgments. If we are a male rabbit, we naturally know that the big bad wolf is bad and the female rabbit is good. But the rabbit doesn't know how to memorize the multiplication table. Figuring out the above background is a bit like a multiplication table. No matter what kind of value evaluation we make on Internet companies going public overseas-how to evaluate it is our freedom-at least our judgment is based on the complete ins and outs of things.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f4d1b82e56c3a630026ec35cf9663d6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Other reasons</b></p><p>There are two other reasons, respectively, the free circulation of capital and the pursuit of different rights of the same share.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, because many enterprises are funded by international private equity funds and venture capital companies, and China implements foreign exchange control and lists at home, it will be troublesome for venture capital funds to make profits and have exchange risks, so they also have the incentive to encourage business owners to list abroad. Some business owners have the ambition of being multinational enterprises and are willing to go public in the United States, which is not only conducive to expanding the popularity of enterprises, but also conducive to the global layout of fund-raising and assets of enterprises, achieving multiple goals with one stone.</p><p>To be more verbose, private equity and venture capital eat the bowl of rice with high risk and high return. As long as they can make money in compliance with the law, it can't be said that there is anything wrong with people making a profit and exiting after the company goes public. Of course, if you violate the law and discipline, you must be held accountable according to law.</p><p>Some people may ask that when listed in Hong Kong, capital can also flow freely. Listed company entrepreneurs and early investors can easily convert Hong Kong dollars raised by listing into US dollars or any other currency. This leads to another reason, \"the same shares have the same rights\" and \"the same shares have different rights\".</p><p>Companies listed in mainland China should strictly abide by the regulations of the same shares and the same rights, that is, how many shares you own in the company will have as many voting rights when voting for major events. This is the reason why many companies don't want to go public, and are afraid that they will not own many shares after listing, which will lead to the company founders being speechless on the board of directors or even being kicked out. This is also the reason for the previously popular \"barbarian\" malicious takeovers, as long as someone else holds more shares than you, even if you are the founder, you will be kicked out.</p><p>Before 2018, listing in Hong Kong was also a requirement of the same shares and rights. In 2018, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange introduced a reform that allows technology companies and companies in the life sciences to adopt an American-style structure of same shares with different rights. Since then, more and more Chinese companies have chosen to list in Hong Kong, or in both Hong Kong, China and New York, USA.</p><p>Not that equal shares and equal rights are bad. Everything has pros and cons. Founders with the same shares and rights are required to be cautious about listing, because they may be overlooked or even kicked out of the decision-making level after listing. However, cautious listing may slow down the development of enterprises and miss the golden development period.</p><p>Going public in the United States provides an option of different rights for the same shares, which means that even if you hold less than 50% of the equity of the company, even if you only hold 10% or even less, you can still maintain control of the company. Although it is convenient for enterprises to go public and raise funds, it can easily lead to the problem of \"insider control\". As the actual controller of an enterprise is not the largest shareholder, when there is a conflict between the interests of shareholders and the interests of operators, the actual controller will easily pretend to be public for personal gain, enrich his own pockets, or adopt some risky business behaviors. In some countries, identical rights are considered to be one of the root causes of corporate governance problems.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c43b7c0037505392758b59f3788cc488\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Crisis of trust</b></p><p>The previous article basically explains why Chinese enterprises are more willing to go public in the United States. There are various reasons, including regulatory system and business operation. Generally speaking, it is a very normal business behavior of seeking advantages and avoiding disadvantages.</p><p>However, after the escalation of the Sino-US trade conflict, the United States has successively sanctioned Chinese companies, some of which are Chinese companies listed in the United States. This increases the risk of listing in the United States. Even if some companies that have already listed are not sanctioned, the risks brought by changes in international relations between the two countries are increasing. In 2020, Luckin's financial fraud aggravated the trust crisis of Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>The Trump administration took the opportunity to sign the Foreign Company Accountability Act before the end of its term, threatening to delist Chinese listed companies from American stock exchanges if China fails to allow the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) to obtain audit working papers for three consecutive years.</p><p>On June 22, 2021, the U.S. Senate passed another proposal, proposing that the delisting time could be advanced by one year.</p><p>The immediate reason for the U.S. threatening to delist Chinese companies is to protect U.S. investors from losses caused by accounting fraud similar to that of Luckin last year. To be honest, this actually seems quite reasonable. Financial fraud is a crime. Not only the United States, but we believe that the capital market of any country should crack down on financial fraud.</p><p>But here are a few questions.</p><p>First, China and the United States have been negotiating on the issue of audit papers, but why are they suddenly turning their faces now?</p><p>In 2009, China issued a law requiring enterprises to \"store the working papers and other files formed by securities companies and securities service institutions that provide related securities services in China in the process of issuing and listing securities overseas\".</p><p>In 2013, PCAOB of China and the United States signed a memorandum of understanding on cooperation, and provided PCAOB with audit working papers of four enterprises.</p><p>From 2016 to 2019, the regulatory authorities of both sides have also made some cooperative attempts on how to effectively inspect. When the relationship is good, there is business and quantity, but when the relationship is bad, it is a bit of turning your face and denying people.</p><p>Second, whether providing accounting papers is an effective form of combating financial fraud.</p><p>For example, in 2002, the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 were greatly revised in response to the financial fraud incident of Enron Company, forming the Public Company Accounting Reform and Investor Protection Act of 2002, or Sarbanes-Oxley Act for short, which made many new provisions in corporate governance, Accounting professional supervision and securities market supervision. In fact, this is conducive to protecting both listed companies and investors, which is a good thing.</p><p>But the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board established after the Sarbanes-Oxley Act can already review the audit papers of listed companies, but then there are accounting problems with WorldCom, Southern Health Care, Freddie Mac, AIG and Lehman Brothers. However, most serious accounting fraud incidents are often found by professional short-selling organizations by using \"private unannounced visits\" to investigate the company's business flow on the spot, and audit companies will not use these means.</p><p>The U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) may not necessarily be able to identify these financial frauds by auditing working papers. In other words, audit papers may help to combat financial fraud, but they are not an essential way, and they are not always 100 percent effective.</p><p>Third, the important target of the Foreign Company Accountability Act is Chinese stock companies, but it is not the first day that the United States knows that Chinese listed companies adopt VIE structure. If the United States thinks that there is a problem with the VIE structure, it can directly ban the listing of Chinese stocks.</p><p>When the relationship between the two countries is friendly, the audit paper is not a very important issue. The two countries can negotiate and solve it, and cooperate in supervision because of mutual trust. Now this mutual trust is gone.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e2b71cb10ca93f5741a9e9b49df382\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Prepare for a rainy day</b></p><p>We hope that Sino-US relations can return to friendship in the new competitive relationship. But if the gap between the two countries gets wider and wider, then Chinese companies listed in the United States really need to be prepared.</p><p>For China and the United States, the delisting of Chinese companies from the U.S. market does not seem to be an unbearable price.</p><p>As far as the United States is concerned, although the volatility of Chinese stocks is relatively large, the overall performance of Chinese stocks is better than that of most American listed companies, and the losses caused by financial fraud of Chinese enterprises are far smaller than those of American companies such as Enron and Lehman.</p><p>If Chinese stocks are delisted, American investors will lose a better investment target. However, after the delisting of Chinese stocks, they can go to Hong Kong stocks and A shares to be listed. If American investors are still optimistic about Chinese enterprises, they can continue to buy and invest in Hong Kong through the Qualified Foreign Investor Mechanism (QFII) or the interconnection mechanism.</p><p>As far as China is concerned, China is a country with high savings and a net exporter of capital, so it is not necessary to list in the United States to raise funds. China's own capital market is also gradually improving, and the registration system is also being piloted on the Science and Technology Innovation Board. It is likely that it will be fully rolled out in the near future. In the future, the convenience of Chinese enterprises listing in China will be greatly improved. Although the valuation of listing in A shares or Hong Kong stocks is likely to shrink, this is not an unacceptable challenge for the whole country.</p><p>Therefore, if Chinese companies are delisted in the United States, it is not an unacceptable event for both countries, and their fate will be more influenced by international relations and historical processes. At this time, what enterprises should do is to take precautions and prevent problems before they happen.</p><p>No one wants bad things to happen, but if they do, they will not be caught off guard.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab6f6a5034baf0d08c9227da13ca9733","relate_stocks":{"513050":"中概互联网ETF易方达"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120859674","content_text":"文/贾铭\n7月23日，一份名为《关于进一步减轻义务教育阶段学生作业负担和校外培训负担的意见》的中办发文件在网络流传。《意见》包含，严禁教育培训机构“资本化”运作，学科类培训机构一律不得上市融资等措施，海外上市的教育类股票应声而跌。比如，新东方在港交所的股价一度“腰斩”（新东方S，23号收跌40.61%，26号再收跌47.02%；新东方在线23号和26号分别收跌28.07%、33.45%；新东方在美股收盘跌幅23号为54.22%），23号，高途在美股跌幅达63.26%，好未来跌幅更是超过70%。\n官方已经于7月24日晚正式公布该文件，多家媒体有全文转发，感兴趣的读者可以找来看。\n今天这篇文章，并不分析中办的40号文，而是想探讨两个问题。\n第一，为什么这么多中国企业选择在美上市？\n第二，考虑到中美关系、瑞幸造假、滴滴下架等事件，在海外上市的这些中概股，未来命运如何？\n主要原因\n中国企业在美国的证券交易所上市的热情，差不多超过其他任何非美国的企业，即使在中美关系明显遇冷之后，依然如此。\n2019年，有32家企业赴美上市，2020年为34家，2021年上半年，已完成赴美上市的企业有37家。据wind数据，截至2021年7月，共有286家中国企业在美国上市——包括那些注册在中国香港或者开曼群岛等离岸中心，但大部分收入和利润来自中国内地的企业——事实上，大部分在美国上市的中国企业，基本都采取了这种上市方式。\n2018年以来，美国在打压中国科技企业的同时，提高了对赴美上市中国企业的审计要求，中企赴美上市的整体环境并不佳，那为什么中国企业仍毅然选择赴美上市呢？\n众所周知的几个原因是：\n第一，美国的资本市场建设比较早，融资体系和法律法规相对来讲更加成熟和完善。从总体融资环境看，美国对于互联网公司、高科技公司普遍看好，同样的一只股票，在美国上市，相对容易获得更高的估值，募集更多的资金。\n第二，更重要的是，美国资本市场采取注册制，对于拟上市公司不设盈利门槛。只要你的公司业务高速增长，占据很大的市场份额，即便亏损也能上市。我国采取审核制，申请A股上市的必要条件是连续三年盈利。\n互联网企业成长很快，所以总是非常缺钱。有的互联网企业，或许仅仅创立几年，就成为了估值超过十亿的独角兽，这时候面临投资人变现的压力和进一步发展的压力，就要准备上市做大规模筹资了，但是多数企业这时候可能才刚刚开始盈利，甚至还没有盈利，所以达不到连续三年盈利的条件，也就无法在A股市场上市融资。要是等两三年后再去上市筹资，不仅可能错过最好的发展时机，融不到资，企业能不能活下去都成了未知数。所以，只能去国外。\n第三，我国的上市审批周期长短不定，遇到上市审批暂停，企业想上市，整个流程长的话可能要三四年。时间就是金钱，很多企业等不起。\n以上三个原因，尤其是第二和第三，应该是中国企业赴美上市最主要的两个原因。但除此之外，还有以下几个原因不应该被忽视。\n\n出身原因\n我们现在经常说，中国的互联网企业做的很好。我们又通常把2000年前后，称为中国的互联网元年。但我们不能忘记，在互联网发展初期，没有几个人能看得懂这种业态，所以这些企业不可能拿到银行贷款。\n其实不仅仅是互联网初创期，所有企业初创期，都很难拿到银行贷款。由于商业银行严格的贷款审批手续和天生的风险厌恶属性，它宁愿少赚点贷款利息，也更愿意把钱贷给四平八稳的企业。\n银行本来就不是给初创企业投资的机构，给初创企业投资，应该是天使投资人和风投机构干的事儿，而我国那时候没有什么风险投资（VC）和私募股权（PE）。这些互联网企业在国内找不到钱，但发展又需要钱，怎么办？只能引进境外资本。\n要知道，我们的改革开放早期，也是用境内的市场换境外的资本和技术。所以还是邓公说的好，管它黑猫白猫，能抓老鼠就是好猫。资本本是中性，无所谓好坏，如果只是用地域作为分类依据，当然是可以的。但如果要做价值判断，更重要的是要看这些资本被用来做的具体的事情，而不是这些资本的出身。\n所以，我国的很多互联网巨头（为了避免不必要的麻烦，这里就不举例了），在设立之初，就是中外合资企业。这又引出了另一个问题：VIE架构的合法性问题。\n可变利益实体架构（Variable Interest Entity），简称VIE架构，通常被称为“协议控制”，是指拟上市公司在境外注册的上市实体，与内地业务经营主体分离，由境外上市实体透过协议方式控制境内业务经营主体，并把收入和利润转移到境外公司。VIE架构又衍生出很多不同的形式，但本质是一样的，这里不展开。\n因为我国法律对境外资金在“信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业”的行业准入有严格限制，不允许境外资本直接投资电信、互联网相关企业。当然也不允许这些行业的公司直接在海外集资或者上市。所以，这些企业采取VIE架构绕开监管。\n监管当然知道这种形式，之所以没有完全禁绝，一方面是这种架构并不“明显违法”，另一方面当然也是一种监管智慧。\n但这种企业在境内上市的话，还是要严格按照上市的监管要求，那这种VIE架构的合法性就成了问题，所以不能直接境内上市。\n这就意味着，一部分互联网企业从诞生的那天起，根就是歪的。根不歪就活不下来，活下来了又留下了不好的出身——“缺钱-引进外资-变成合资企业-采取VIE架构-境内上市的合法性有问题-境外上市”。\n现在好多了，我国的多层次资本市场建设越来越完善，人民币风投和私募也多了，在国内找不到钱的问题，得到了很大的缓解。\n王小波在《沉默的大多数》中说，做价值判断太容易了，如果我们是一只公兔子，我们天然就知道大灰狼坏，母兔子好。但兔子不知道怎么背九九乘法表。搞清楚上面这个背景，就有点九九乘法表的意思，无论我们对互联网企业去境外上市做出何种价值评价——如何评价是我们的自由——但起码我们的评判是基于事情完整的来龙去脉做出来的。\n\n其他原因\n还有两个原因分别是，资本的自由流通和同股不同权的追求。\n如前所述，由于很多企业的资金来源包括国际私募基金和风险投资公司，而中国又实行外汇管制，在境内上市，风投资金获利退出会很麻烦，有汇兑风险，所以他们也有动力鼓励企业所有者在境外上市。有的企业所有者有做跨国企业的雄心，也愿意在美国上市，这既有利于拓展企业的知名度，又有利于企业募资和资产的全球布局，一举多得。\n又得啰嗦一点，私募和风投吃的就是高风险高收益这碗饭，只要他们能遵纪守法地赚钱，就不能说人家在企业上市后获利退出有什么不对。当然，如果违法乱纪，那必然是要依法追责的。\n有人可能会问，在香港上市，资本也可以自由流动啊。上市公司创业者与早期投资者可以轻松地将上市筹集的港元兑换成美元或其他任何货币。这就到了另一个原因，“同股同权”和“同股不同权”。\n在我国内地上市的公司要严格遵守同股同权的条例，即你拥有该公司多少股份，在重大事件投票时就拥有多少的投票权，这就是很多公司不想上市的原因，害怕上市之后拥有的股份不多，导致公司创始人在董事会说不上话甚至会被踢出局。这也是之前流行的“野蛮人”恶意收购的原因，只要别人持有比你更多的股份，哪怕你是创始人，也会被踢出局。\n在2018年以前，在香港上市，也是同股同权的要求。2018年，港交所推出了一项改革，允许科技企业和生命科学领域里的企业采用美国式的同股不同权的结构。此后，越来越多的中国企业选择在香港上市，或者在中国香港和美国纽约两地同时挂牌。\n不是说同股同权不好。凡事都是有利有弊。同股同权要求持股不多的创始人谨慎上市，因为上市后可能被架空甚至踢出决策层，但谨慎上市又可能拖慢企业发展的速度，错过黄金发展期。\n赴美上市提供了一个同股不同权的选项，这就意味着，即使持有企业小于50%的股权，哪怕只持有10%甚至更低，也可以保持对企业的控制权。虽然方便了企业上市融资，但这很容易导致“内部人控制”问题。由于企业的实际控制人并不是最大的股东，那股东利益与经营者利益存在冲突的时候，实控人就容易假公济私，中饱私囊，或者采取一些风险比较大的经营行为。在一些国家，同股不同权被认为是企业治理问题的根源之一。\n\n信任危机\n前文基本解释了中国企业为啥更愿意去美国上市，有各种原因，有监管制度上的，有企业经营上的，总体而言，是一种很正常的趋利避害的商业行为。\n但中美贸易冲突升级以后，美国接连制裁中国的企业，有一些就是在美上市的中国企业。这增大了在美上市的风险，已经上市的部分企业，即使没有被制裁，因两国国际关系变动而带来的风险也在变大。2020年，瑞幸财务造假，更加剧了中概股的信任危机。\n特朗普政府趁机在任期结束之前签署《外国公司问责法案》，威胁说，如果中国方面连续三年不能够让美国上市公司会计监督委员会（PCAOB）获得审计工作底稿，中国的上市企业将会被美国证券交易所摘牌。\n2021年6月22日，美国参议院又通过了另一项提案，提出退市时间可以提前一年。\n美国威胁要让中国企业退市的直接理由是保护美国投资者免受类似于去年瑞幸咖啡那样的会计造假带来的损失。说实话，这看起来其实挺有道理。财务造假是犯罪，不仅美国，我们相信任何一个国家的资本市场都要打击财务造假。\n但这里有几个问题。\n第一，中美双方一直在就审计底稿的问题进行磋商，但为啥现在突然翻脸。\n2009年，我国出台法律，要求企业“在境外发行证券与上市过程中，提供相关证券服务的证券公司、证券服务机构在境内形成的工作底稿等档案应当存放在境内”。\n2013年，我国和美国的PCAOB签署了一份合作谅解备忘录，并向PCAOB提供了4家企业的审计工作底稿。\n2016年到2019年，双方监管部门也一直就如何来有效地检查，有过一些合作尝试。关系好的时候有商有量，关系不好的时候就有点翻脸不认人的意思。\n第二，提供会计底稿是不是打击财务造假的一种有效形式。\n美国的证券市场监管法规一直在不断升级，比如2002年针对安然公司财务造假事件对《1933年证券法》《1934年证券交易法》做出大幅修订，形成了《2002年上市公司会计改革和投资者保护法案》（Public Company Accounting Reform and Investor Protection Act of 2002），简称《萨班斯-奥克斯利法案》，在公司治理、会计职业监管、证券市场监管等方面作出了许多新的规定。这事实上既有利于保护上市公司，也有利于保护投资者，是好事儿。\n但《萨班斯-奥克斯利法案》之后建立的美国上市公司会计监督委员会已经可以审阅上市公司的审计底稿了，可之后又出现了世通、南方保健、房地美、美国国际集团和雷曼兄弟的会计问题。而大多数比较严重的会计造假事件，往往是由专业的卖空机构，通过使用“私服暗访”实地调查公司业务流量等技巧手段发现问题的，审计公司不会使用这些手段。\n美国上市公司会计监督委员会（PCAOB）不一定能通过审计工作底稿来发现这些财务造假。换言之，审计底稿或许有助于打击财务造假，但并不是一种必不可少的方式，也不总是百分百有效。\n第三，《外国公司问责法案》的重要目标就是中概股公司，但美国不是第一天知道中国上市公司采用VIE架构。如果美国认为VIE架构有问题，那直接禁止中概股上市即可。\n两国在关系友好的时候，审计底稿并不是一个很重要的问题，两国可以协商解决，合作监管，因为互相信任。现在这种互信没有了。\n\n未雨绸缪\n我们希望中美关系可以在新的竞争关系中复归友好。但如果两国的隔阂越来越大，那在美上市的中国企业，确实需要做好两手准备。\n对中美两国来讲，中国企业从美国市场退市，似乎都不是难以承受的代价。\n对美国来讲，尽管中概股的波动比较大，但中概股的整体表现优于大部分美国上市公司股票，中国企业财务造假带来的损失，也远小于安然、雷曼这些美国公司。\n如果中概股退市，美国投资者会失去一个比较好的投资标的。但中概股退市后可以去港股和A股上市，如果美国投资者依旧看好中国企业，可以继续在香港地区通过合格境外投资者机制（QFII）或者互联互通机制买进，进行投资。\n对中国来讲，我国是一个高储蓄国家和资本净出口国，并非一定要在美国上市募资。我国自己的资本市场也在逐渐完善，注册制也在科创板试点，很可能不久后的未来就会全面铺开，未来中国企业在国内上市的便利度会大幅度提升，虽然在A股或者港股上市，估值很可能有缩水，但这对整个国家来讲，并不是什么不可接受的挑战。\n所以，如果中国企业在美退市，对两国来讲并不是什么不可接受的事件，那它们的命运就更多地受国际关系和历史进程的影响。这时候，企业应该做的就是未雨绸缪，防患于未然。\n谁都不希望坏事发生，但如果发生，也不至于措手不及。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513050":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3590,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800811255,"gmtCreate":1627290274977,"gmtModify":1703486870991,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571552996196002","authorIdStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/800811255","repostId":"1181109009","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173973868,"gmtCreate":1626608998454,"gmtModify":1703762288182,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571552996196002","authorIdStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173973868","repostId":"1133530572","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133530572","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626592326,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133530572?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-18 15:12","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Too strong! More than 20 A-share companies revised their performance expectations for the first half of the year!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133530572","media":"上海证券报","summary":"要么主业好，要么投资强。据上证报资讯统计，6月份至今已有立昂微、未名医药、合肥城建、雪迪龙、天齐锂业、赣锋锂业、鸿博股份、藏格控股、浩物股份、雪峰科技等逾20家A股公司上修了今年半年报预增幅度。\n此外","content":"<p><div>Either the main business is good or the investment is strong. According to the statistics of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, since June, more than 20 A-share companies, such as Lion Micro, Weiming Medicine, Hefei Urban Construction, Xuedilong, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, Hongbo, Zangge Holdings, Haowu and Xuefeng Technology, have revised the pre-increase rate of this year's semi-annual report. In addition, \"stock market recruits\" such as Dongpeng Special Drink, Qipai Technology, Electric Wind Power and Nanowei Technology announced that the latest expected semi-annual performance will be higher than the semi-annual report performance announced when the prospectus was disclosed. Judging from the announcement, it is in the high prosperity track of chemical industry, steel and lithium industry chain, and the main business performance exceeds expectations and has become most companies...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DNtGU0-Cuwz2GXAhrrx7Ag\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"shzqb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Too strong! More than 20 A-share companies revised their performance expectations for the first half of the year!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToo strong! More than 20 A-share companies revised their performance expectations for the first half of the year!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">上海证券报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-18 15:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Either the main business is good or the investment is strong. According to the statistics of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, since June, more than 20 A-share companies, such as Lion Micro, Weiming Medicine, Hefei Urban Construction, Xuedilong, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, Hongbo, Zangge Holdings, Haowu and Xuefeng Technology, have revised the pre-increase rate of this year's semi-annual report. In addition, \"stock market recruits\" such as Dongpeng Special Drink, Qipai Technology, Electric Wind Power and Nanowei Technology announced that the latest expected semi-annual performance will be higher than the semi-annual report performance announced when the prospectus was disclosed. Judging from the announcement, it is in the high prosperity track of chemical industry, steel and lithium industry chain, and the main business performance exceeds expectations and has become most companies...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DNtGU0-Cuwz2GXAhrrx7Ag\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DNtGU0-Cuwz2GXAhrrx7Ag\">上海证券报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DNtGU0-Cuwz2GXAhrrx7Ag","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133530572","content_text":"要么主业好，要么投资强。据上证报资讯统计，6月份至今已有立昂微、未名医药、合肥城建、雪迪龙、天齐锂业、赣锋锂业、鸿博股份、藏格控股、浩物股份、雪峰科技等逾20家A股公司上修了今年半年报预增幅度。\n此外，东鹏特饮、气派科技、电气风电、纳微科技等“股市新兵”则公告称，最新预计半年度业绩将高于招股书披露时预告的半年报业绩。\n\n从公告来看，处于化工、钢铁、锂产业链等高景气度赛道，主业表现超预期成为多数公司上修业绩的主因。另外，旅游等去年受疫情影响较大的企业，因在今年逐步恢复，带动企业扭亏为盈。柘中股份、明牌珠宝等则因股权投资有所斩获，也大幅上修业绩预告。\n行业高景气\n锂产业链、化工等表现抢眼\n7月14日晚，赣锋锂业、天齐锂业两大锂产业链公司同时上修半年报预增幅度。\n赣锋锂业从此前预盈8亿元至12亿元，上修至预盈13亿元至16亿元，同比大增730.75%至922.46%。天齐锂业则从此前预计亏损1.3亿元至2.5亿元，调整为预盈7800万元至1.16亿元，同比扭亏为盈。\n\n 图片来源：东方财富\n对于上半年业绩“超预期”的原因，拥有五大类逾40种锂化合物及金属锂产品生产能力的赣锋锂业在公告中直言“产品售价超预期”。\n今年以来，得益于公司产品产销两旺，且销售均价同比上涨，赣锋锂业净利润增长迅速。第一季度，公司实现营收16.07亿元，同比增长48.94%；实现净利润4.76亿元，同比大增6046.30%。得益于产品售价超预期，且公司持有的Pilbara等金融资产公允价值增长，赣锋锂业上修半年度业绩至预盈13亿元至16亿元。\n再看天齐锂业，作为以锂为核心的新能源材料企业，公司拥有合计约4.48万吨/年的锂化工产品产能。此外，还有4.8万吨/年氢氧化锂、2万吨/年电池级碳酸锂的在建项目，中期锂化工产品规划产能合计超过11万吨/年。\n2021年第一季度，天齐锂业实现营收9.04亿元，同比微降6.63%。彼时，天齐锂业在一季报中表示，在不考虑因SQM股价变动对领式期权公允价值波动等，无法合理预计的非经营性活动带来的影响背景下，预计上半年将亏损1.3亿元至2.5亿元。\n最新的半年度业绩预告修正公告显示，因SQM股价变动，公司持有的SQM的B类股领式期权业务产生的公允价值变动收益较预计增加，且公司主要锂化合物产品销量和销售均价预计增长，公司上修上半年净利润为预盈7800万元至1.16亿元，同比扭亏为盈。\n\n图片来源：国联证券研报\n“公司所处行业细分领域市场景气度不断提升，市场需求旺盛，公司销售订单饱满，产品供不应求，公司营收同比稳步增长；衢州硅片基地产能大幅释放，综合规模效益凸显。”立昂微在业绩预增公告中直言。\n2021年一季度立昂微实现营收4.62亿元，同比增长49.21%；实现净利润7579.45万元，同比增长133.38%。\n立昂微曾在一季报中预计上半年净利润将同比增长100%以上。而公司半年度业绩预告显示，预计上半年将实现净利润2.03亿元至2.15亿元，同比增长166.37至182.11%。\n在行业景气度持续提升背景下，金浦钛业、海洋王、四川美丰、精功科技等亦上修了半年度业绩预期。金浦钛业从预盈8660.29万元至9091.15万元，修正为预盈1.10亿元至1.15亿元。\n公司称，钛白粉市场持续回暖，钛白粉销售价格较上年同期涨幅较多；公司主营产品钛白粉量价齐升，推动公司净利润同比涨幅较多。而受益于专业领域LED等新光源对传统光源的替代，以及专业市场对节能降耗需求的日益增长等，海洋王上修上半年净利润为8549.52万元至9689.45万元，同比增长50%至70%。\n主营尿素、复合肥、氮氧化物还原剂等化工产品制造与销售的四川美丰表示，行业景气度持续提升下，公司部分主营产品市场价格较上年同期出现较大增长，盈利水平同比增幅明显。据此，公司将上半年业绩从预盈6500万元至8500万元，修正为预盈1.85亿元至2.15亿元，同比增长355.71%至429.61%。\n受益于公司碳纤维生产线产品交付进程的提速，精功科技亦将上半年净利润从预盈3500万元至5000万元，修正为预盈6500万元至7500万元，同比增长774.82%至909.41%。\n此外，江苏索普、南钢股份均曾在披露一季报时预计，上半年净利润将同比增长50%以上。而得益于公司主要产品醋酸及衍生品价格持续上涨，江苏索普业绩大幅上升，上半年预计实现净利润14.8亿元至15.3亿元，同比大增173倍至179倍；受益于今年以来钢材市场产销两旺，盈利明显好转，南钢股份上半年预计实现净利润约22.61亿元，同比增长约102.67%。\n投资“超预期”\n柘中股份、明牌珠宝等收获丰\n与前述企业不同，柘中股份、明牌珠宝上半年业绩预期上调得益于公司股权投资有所斩获。\n柘中股份通过私募股权基金参与的方式，对科技、医疗、半导体、消费、新能源、新材料、节能环保、高端装备、新能源汽车、TMT等领域多家高科技企业进行了股权投资。\n\n图片来源：公司公告\n上半年，柘中股份参与投资设立的苏民投君信（上海）产业升级与科技创新股权投资合伙企业（有限合伙）所投资的皓元医药、力芯微于6月在科创板上市。按照上述公司6月30日收盘市值测算，预计对公司本报告期损益影响金额较前期业绩预告出现大幅度增加。\n据此，柘中股份将上半年业绩从预盈6000万元至8000万元，修正为预盈2亿元至2.3亿元，同比增长82倍至94倍。其中，非经常性损益预计1.4亿元至1.8亿元。\n同样因投资而“赚得盆满钵满”的还有明牌珠宝，一季报时公司曾预计上半年实现净利润3500万元至5000万元。7月1日，明牌珠宝上修上半年业绩至预盈3.5亿元至4亿元，同比增长23倍至27倍，主要由于非经常性损益项目。\n\n图片来源：公司公告\n公告显示，明牌珠宝对瑞丰银行投资按公允价值变动计入当期损益核算，影响金额约3.43亿元。据悉，明牌珠宝全资子公司明牌卡利罗，持有瑞丰银行约5863.84万股股份，瑞丰银行于今年6月25日上市。\n此外，焦点科技也将上半年业绩从预盈9000万元至1.25亿元，修正为预盈1.15亿元至1.35亿元，同比增长141.15%至183.09%。业绩增长原因方面，除营业总收入约7.1亿元，同比预增约31%外，焦点科技上半年通过集中竞价的方式累计出售润和软件452.4万股，扣税后为公司带来净利润约2251.70万元。\n藏格控股从预盈3亿元至3.8亿元，调整为预盈3.9亿元至4.3亿元，同比增长374.91% 至403.11%。业绩增长原因方面，除公司产品碳酸锂量价齐升及氯化钾售价提升，增厚营收净利外，公司长期股权投资确认投资收益2.1亿元（包含西藏巨龙铜业计提担保预期信用损失转回）。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173979257,"gmtCreate":1626608906779,"gmtModify":1703762287535,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571552996196002","authorIdStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173979257","repostId":"1151231853","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151231853","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"市场策略研究、热点问题观察、分享最新观点：美国与海外市场、H股、及中概股市场","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Kevin策略研究","id":"1090746012","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90"},"pubTimestamp":1626604009,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1151231853?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-18 18:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"CICC Overseas: US Stocks Earnings in the Second Quarter are Expected to Further Accelerate Growth","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151231853","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"摘要\n近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行，市场对高通胀高估值下的美股能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。不过，抛开短期一些情绪变化，基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心。从市场角","content":"<p><b>Abstract</b></p><p>Recently, as inflation in the United States has risen beyond expectations again, the market's concerns about whether U.S. stocks under high inflation and high valuation can continue their upward trend and whether the Federal Reserve's policy will be tightened ahead of schedule have heated up again. However, aside from some short-term emotional changes, fundamental conditions are the core of judging the medium-term trend of the market.<b>From the market perspective, even in the face of many uncertainties, as long as the profit trend is not completely reversed, we will not turn pessimistic about the market.</b></p><p>Overall: Growth further accelerated in the second quarter; Durable goods, banks, raw materials and capital goods led the growth rate.</p><p>Referring to Factset consensus expectations,<b>S&P 500 earnings (comparable caliber) are on track to achieve 66% year-over-year growth (vs. 52% in the first quarter), and Nasdaq Composite 89% year-over-year (vs. 94% in the first quarter).</b>At the plate level, combined with the base number in the second quarter of last year and the repair situation in the second quarter of this year, the current expectation summarized by Factset shows that,<b>Consumer durable goods, banking, raw materials, capital goods and other sectors led the earnings growth rate</b>, on track to achieve earnings growth of more than 100%; Conversely, household goods, healthcare equipment, and utilities are expected to post negative earnings growth in the second quarter.</p><p>Focus: Supply bottlenecks and capacity utilization, capital expenditure</p><p><b>At present, the problems faced by U.S. stock companies are no longer the repair of profits and demand, but more the release of supply and the alleviation of bottlenecks between supply and demand.</b>Therefore, in the second quarter performance period, we need to focus on the production capacity, supply chain repair and inventory of enterprises, especially the management's discussion on related issues. In terms of industries, compared with the high point of the previous investment cycle (July 2018), the current capacity utilization rate of automobiles and parts, air transportation, paper products, petroleum and coal, plastics and rubber, metal processing and other sectors is obviously low, especially for automobiles. The current capacity utilization rate is only 64%, but it fell further in June, which also explains that the price of used cars continued to rise sharply in June, thus pushing inflation higher.</p><p>Outlook: It is expected that the upward revision will continue, but the adjustment sentiment will fall marginally; Third quarter quarter still has stamina</p><p>On the whole, since the second quarter, the market's consensus expectation for the earnings of U.S. stocks has been revised rapidly. However, the more sensitive profit adjustment sentiment (upward adjustment vs. downward adjustment of the number of analysts) began to be revised rapidly in the second quarter, but it began to gradually stabilize at the end of May, indicating that the fastest stage of upward profit revision may have passed, and the kinetic energy of upward revision has slowed down.<b>Looking ahead, although the second quarter will be a year-on-year high due to the low base, we expect that there will still be stamina in the third quarter, mainly due to the further accelerated release of service consumption in the third quarter.</b></p><p><b>This week's focus: What about the upcoming second-quarter performance period of U.S. stocks?</b></p><p>Recently, with the inflation in the United States rising beyond expectations again, the market's concerns about whether the US stock market can continue its upward trend under high inflation and high valuation and whether the Federal Reserve's policy will be tightened ahead of schedule have heated up again.</p><p>In our recent comment \"Inflation Beyond Expectations vs. Relatively Calm Market\", we mentioned that the reason why the market is relatively calm is mainly because it is precisely such a high price (for example, used cars rose by 45% year-on-year, and if used cars are deducted, the CPI in June will be basically flat year-on-year) that the market thinks it is unsustainable, but more importantly, Powell still maintained the judgment that inflation is temporary and is not in a hurry to withdraw from the policy (\"The Federal Reserve is still not in a hurry to withdraw\") at the hearing, which avoided the market from falling into violent fluctuations in the face of unexpected inflation risks.</p><p><i>After deducting used car prices, inflation in June was only basically flat compared with May</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd0162f2599c429c113f4fb6bba6cd1c\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, putting aside some short-term emotional changes, fundamental conditions are the core of judging the medium-term trend of the market.<b>What's more, since the US Treasury yields began to gradually rise in the third quarter of last year, the valuation of U.S. stocks has been basically flat, and earnings are the core variable driving market performance</b>。 Therefore,<b>From a market perspective, we will not turn pessimistic about the market as long as the earnings trend is not completely reversed, even in the face of the volatility that may result from many uncertainties</b>。</p><p>In fact, the first-quarter results greatly exceeded expectations (52% year-on-year vs. the expected 21% and 4% in the fourth quarter of 2020), driving the continuous upward revision of the performance (\"Eight Characteristics of Current U.S. Stock Earnings\"). The current market consensus expectation is that the profit growth rate is expected to reach 38% in 2021 and 11% in 2021.<b>With such strong growth, assuming other conditions remain unchanged, if you switch to earnings in 2022, then the valuation will return to pre-pandemic levels, which in turn makes the seemingly high valuation not that expensive.</b></p><p><i>From a market perspective, we will not turn pessimistic about the market as long as the earnings trend is not completely reversed, even in the face of the volatility that may result from many uncertainties</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e391be2c84b5cb240787e36fd019c74b\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>U.S. Stock Market Stocks have been basically flat since the third quarter of last year</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b7e6447d1346d3f6a1b14792ae1fb01\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>If you switch to 2022 earnings in the second half of the year (light blue), then the valuation will fall back to pre-pandemic levels in 2019 (dark blue)</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d6495bd71eced449a9a243bfec33924\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>S&P 500 2021 EPS consensus is up 38.4% y/y, market consensus is up 10.9% y/y in 2022</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a71ebb5c81492e5a9ac8e8ed4d312b7d\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>I. Overall situation: further accelerated in the second quarter; Durable goods, banks, raw materials and capital goods lead the growth rate</b></p><p>Starting from mid-July, the U.S. stock market will gradually enter the 2Q21 performance period that lasts for one month. As analyzed in \"2H21 Overseas Market Outlook: From Growth Spillover to Liquidity Backlash\", we expect that thanks to the low base last year and the continuous recovery of service consumption under the epidemic vaccination since the second quarter,<b>U.S. Stocks Earnings Growth in the Second Quarter will be the High of the Year</b>。 Specifically, referring to the Factset consensus expectation,<b>S&P 500 earnings (comparable caliber) are on track to achieve 66% year-over-year growth (vs. 52% in the first quarter), and Nasdaq Composite 89% year-over-year (vs. 94% in the first quarter).</b></p><p><i>At present, the market consensus is that the S&P 500 EPS in the second quarter is 65.5% year-on-year, and the Nasdaq Composite Index EPS is expected to be 88.9% year-on-year in the second quarter</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9dac04e5c6cd831a34297db41de0ce8\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Except for net income, S&P 500's second-quarter EBIT is expected to continue to rise compared with the first quarter, and Nasdaq slipped slightly but remained high</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9707e327be510f64aa0b22d4dfc432\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the plate level, combined with the base number in the second quarter of last year and the repair situation in the second quarter of this year, the current expectation summarized by Factset shows that,<b>Consumer durable goods, banking, raw materials, capital goods and other sectors are leading in earnings growth and are expected to achieve earnings growth of more than 100%</b>； Conversely, household goods, healthcare equipment, and utilities are expected to post negative earnings growth in the second quarter.<b>From the perspective of improvement, compared with the first quarter, the value sectors such as durable consumer goods, capital goods, banks and raw materials may improve significantly</b>While the profit growth rate of growth sectors such as retail, healthcare equipment, technology hardware, media and entertainment may decline.</p><p><i>Consumer durable goods and banks improved significantly year-on-year EPS growth in the second quarter, but household goods, healthcare and equipment are expected to lag behind</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7723e780a6d8d49765b7a8eb71c47142\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>This strength-weakness relationship is broadly consistent with the first quarter</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25d827e228fc131c8609e7eb4578ae59\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Compared with the first quarter, consumer durable goods, capital goods, banks, raw materials, etc. improved the most, while retail, diversified finance, medical and healthcare equipment, etc. declined</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/149d7a68d6d77d103d297aa57e509aba\" tg-width=\"812\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Since the second quarter, the 2021e EPS estimate of the energy sector has been adjusted the largest, and the upward adjustment of banks and raw materials has also been significant</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c733067357fdc302b884ee0852845ee0\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Focus: Supply bottleneck, capacity utilization, capital expenditure</b></p><p><b>At present, the problems faced by U.S. stock companies are not the repair of profit and demand, but the release of supply and the relief of bottlenecks between supply and demand</b>。 Therefore, in the second quarter performance period, we need to focus on the production capacity, supply chain repair and inventory of enterprises, especially the management's discussion on related issues. Judging from the monthly high-frequency data as of June, the overall capacity utilization rate of the United States is currently 75.5%, which has not been fully repaired to the level of 75.8% in January, especially for durable consumer goods, which are greatly affected by supply bottlenecks. At present, the capacity utilization rate is only 74%, which is still a distance from the 75% at the beginning of the year and before the epidemic.</p><p>In terms of industries, compared with the high point of the previous investment cycle (July 2018),<b>At present, the capacity utilization rate of automobile and parts, air transportation, paper products, petroleum and coal, plastics and rubber, metal processing and other sectors is obviously low.</b>In particular, the current capacity utilization rate of automobiles is only 64%, but it fell further in June, which also explains that used car prices continued to climb sharply in June, thus pushing inflation higher.</p><p>This can also be reflected in the capital expenditure of enterprises. As of the first quarter, the capital expenditure of American enterprises also shows a very differentiated K-type repair situation. The capital expenditure of those industries with strong demand, full production capacity and ability is repaired faster, such as e-commerce, semiconductor equipment, biopharmaceuticals and other industries; On the contrary, other industries such as energy, transportation and business services are still lagging behind.</p><p><i>Overall U.S. capacity utilization is now at 75.5% and hasn't fully repaired to January's level of 75.8%</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53b499f6322772f960a8b4380161f69e\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In particular, durable consumer goods, which are greatly affected by supply bottlenecks, currently have a capacity utilization rate of only 74%</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fac7dee32811c05608d4996ddc1b6f1e\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The capacity utilization rate of automobile and parts, air transportation, paper products, petroleum and coal, plastics and rubber, metal processing and other sectors is significantly low</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cb6dc355059b752c78fe7e9fd3e6a53\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Cars, in particular, where capacity utilization is currently only 64%, fell further in June, explaining how used car prices continued to climb sharply in June, pushing inflation higher</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c2558b7d03946063043eb4df5726ecf\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>As of the first quarter, the capital expenditure of American enterprises also showed a very differentiated K-shaped repair situation</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cf47a0b5398c71e46bf9d5517126c3a\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>III. Outlook: It is expected that the upward revision will continue, but the margin of adjustment sentiment will drop; Third quarter quarter still has stamina</b></p><p>Overall, since the second quarter, the market's consensus expectation for the earnings of U.S. stocks has been rapidly revised upward. At present, the market expects the EPS of S&P 500 to increase by 38.4% year-on-year in 2021 and 10.9% year-on-year in 2022; Nasdaq EPS increased 49.2% year-over-year in 2021 and 19.0% year-over-year in 2022. However, more sensitive earnings correction sentiment (upward vs. downward analyst number)<b>In the second quarter, the upward revision began rapidly, but it began to gradually stabilize at the end of May, indicating that the fastest stage of upward revision of profits may have passed, and the kinetic energy of upward revision slowed down.</b></p><p>Looking ahead,<b>Although the second quarter will be a year-on-year high due to the low base, we expect that the third quarter will still have stamina, mainly due to the further accelerated release of service consumption in the third quarter</b>。 At present, the market expects that the profit growth rate in the third quarter is 24%, which is one of the main reasons why we are still positive for the growth and market in the United States in the third quarter.</p><p><i>Since the second quarter, the sentiment of profit adjustment has been revised rapidly, but it has gradually stabilized at the end of May, indicating that the fastest stage of profit upward revision may have passed</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5ea5dcaf8bf692d3977f0131cf0d53c\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>We expect there will still be stamina in the third quarter, mainly due to the further accelerated release of service consumption in the third quarter</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b251d0a58c9e8ac467ae4563f1fce6\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Market Dynamics: Inflation rose above expectations in June, and unexpected growth in retail sales showed that demand remained strong; US Treasury yields Hits New Low Bulls Increase, Dollar Shorts Drop</b></p><p><b>► Asset performance: debt> stock> bulk; Interest rates hit new lows, cycle underperforms</b></p><p>The past week has undoubtedly been a week of blockbuster data and events in the United States.<b>After exceeding expectations of June inflation</b>(\"Inflation beyond expectations vs. relatively calm market\"),<b>Still dovish Powell testimony</b>(\"The Federal Reserve is still not in a hurry to quit\"),<b>The overall U.S. stock market closed slightly lower and the financial cycle underperformed after beating expectations for retail sales but missing expectations for consumer confidence index</b>At the same time, the 10-year U.S. bond interest rate dropped to a recent low and fell back to 1.29%. The real interest rate fell, but inflation expectations rose. In terms of major assets in the world, under US dollar pricing, bonds> stocks> bulk, with VIX, soybeans, Brazilian stock market and Hong Kong stocks leading the gains; Bitcoin, crude oil, UK stocks, Nasdaq led the decline.</p><p><i>In the past week, under the US dollar price, bonds> stocks> bulk, with VIX, soybeans, Brazilian stock market and Hong Kong stocks leading the gains; Bitcoin, crude oil, UK stocks, Nasdaq lead declines</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4f9bb5609b5e9bb70a8f407e0033b21\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Utilities, household goods led gains over the past week; Energy, Semiconductors, Consumer Services Lead Declines</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d4d293cd3bdb071f6792ebbed29beee\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In the past week, the 10-year U.S. bond rate fell by about 7bps from last week, with real interest rates falling by 11bps and inflation expectations rising by 4bps</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1264e9221413c868ea309fd8f4baee9\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In the past week, the sectors suffered more and cyclical damage from the epidemic were relatively underperforming, while the sectors suffered less damage from the epidemic were relatively outperforming</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f7bbaaa22ee6b5682383d99404572c2\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Sentiment Positions: Put/call Ratio Lifts, Dollar Shorts Reduce Significantly</b></p><p>In the past week, the ratio of bearish/bullish options (10-day average) in U.S. stocks has risen sharply compared with last week, and it is currently-1 time standard deviation higher than the historical average. In terms of positions, the substantial reduction of long and short positions in the US Dollar Index led to a sharp increase in net long positions; With the further decline of US Treasury yields, the long position of 10-year U.S. debt has increased significantly, and the short position of 2-year U.S. debt has decreased significantly.</p><p><i>CBOE US stock bear/bull option ratio (10-day average) has risen sharply from last week and is currently-1x standard deviation above the historical average</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6d8a29e7882613661c1e3d53d7c1533\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In the past week, the RSI points of European and American stock markets have fallen back, while Japan and emerging stock markets have risen; Oil drop back</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e24fb1dbe1900f171084acec1c0902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Over the past week, long positions in the US Dollar Index have continued to increase, short positions have decreased significantly, and net long positions have risen significantly</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125305e1d2b71dd5479e48f796d27371\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>► Capital flow: the cargo base turns into outflow, and the stock market accelerates its inflow.</b></p><p>In the past week, the inflow of bond market slowed down, the stock market accelerated, and money funds flowed out sharply; In terms of market, the stock markets of the United States and Japan accelerated their inflows, the inflows of developed Europe slowed down, and the emerging markets represented by China turned into inflows.</p><p><i>Over the past week, bond inflows have slowed, stocks have accelerated inflows, and money market funds have turned into big outflows</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9f5e742c9f21463f645f06f585f6dfe\" tg-width=\"1045\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Over the past week, U.S. and Japanese equity markets accelerated inflows, developed Europe slowed, and emerging markets, represented by China, turned into inflows</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd37fbb2a8c413cb479bf41d00fe260d\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Fundamentals and policies: Inflation exceeded expectations again in June, and retail sales grew strongly.</b></p><p><b>In June, inflation in the United States rose more than expected, and used cars and travel remained the main contributors.</b>In June, the CPI was 5.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month, both higher than the previous value and significantly exceeding market expectations. Among them, the price of used cars jumped by 10.5% month-on-month, contributing one-third of the month-on-month growth rate of CPI in June. The supply constraint caused by the lack of chips and other factors is still the main bottleneck. In addition, services related to travel demand after the epidemic recovery and opening, such as air tickets and hotels, also increased significantly. For example, the counting price in June reached 2.7% month-on-month.</p><p><b>Retail sales unexpectedly rose 0.6% month over month in June</b>, higher than the expected-0.3% and previous value (-1.7%). Looking at items,<b>Retail sales of cars and parts fell 2% month-on-month, likely weighed down by recent supply shortages and sharp price hikes</b>But department stores, groceries, electronics and household appliances rose from the previous month. However, retail spending that greatly exceeded expectations was offset by a lower-than-expected University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (80.8 in July, down from the previous value of 85.5 and not as good as expected (86.5). Meanwhile, 360,000 initial applications last week were lower than the previous value (386,000) but not as good as expected 350,000.</p><p><i>Summary of economic data over the past week</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c8becaabb300c614aae82376b1811e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>U.S. CPI exceeded expectations again in June, 5.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month, with used cars and travel-related services still the most important contributors</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be95482ad914743cc46ae03dfd61c7c7\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>U.S. June retail sales 0.6% month-over-month, higher than expectations of-0.3%</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e7d767ac03bf61753c4ea2a31c98b4\" tg-width=\"922\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In terms of items, retail sales of cars and parts fell 2% month-on-month, but department stores, grocery stores, electronics and household appliances rose from the previous month</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26688afd6f0e8018af6ab4646f83a73\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The Fed's average daily reverse repo usage remained high over the past week, exceeding $800 billion</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc2a4bf65f4512b115ac6ba45da7533b\" tg-width=\"1077\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The current balance sheet of the Federal Reserve is about $8.20 trillion, up significantly from last week</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90a6980f71674854b48b80fd7945e5b2\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Market Valuation: Valuations have pulled back slightly.</b></p><p>With the continuous decline of the 10-year US bond interest rate last week, the current static P/E of S&P 500 index 27.7 times is basically at a reasonable level (~27.9 times) that can be supported by growth (ISM manufacturing PMI =60.6 in June) and liquidity (10-year US bond interest rate 1.36%). The valuation levels of stock markets in major global markets, including Europe, Japan and emerging markets, have all declined, but they are at relatively high levels in history.</p><p><i>The current 12-month dynamic P/E of the S&P 500 is down slightly to 21.3 times, more than one standard deviation upward of its mean since 1990</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/375db13e71641a7072dc3fad087b017d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The current 27.7 times static P/E of the S&P 500 is basically at a reasonable level that growth and liquidity can support (~27.9 times)</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593bae75a6b6c4dbec11a5708e95d06b\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CICC Overseas: US Stocks Earnings in the Second Quarter are Expected to Further Accelerate Growth</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCICC Overseas: US Stocks Earnings in the Second Quarter are Expected to Further Accelerate Growth\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1090746012\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Kevin策略研究 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-18 18:26</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Abstract</b></p><p>Recently, as inflation in the United States has risen beyond expectations again, the market's concerns about whether U.S. stocks under high inflation and high valuation can continue their upward trend and whether the Federal Reserve's policy will be tightened ahead of schedule have heated up again. However, aside from some short-term emotional changes, fundamental conditions are the core of judging the medium-term trend of the market.<b>From the market perspective, even in the face of many uncertainties, as long as the profit trend is not completely reversed, we will not turn pessimistic about the market.</b></p><p>Overall: Growth further accelerated in the second quarter; Durable goods, banks, raw materials and capital goods led the growth rate.</p><p>Referring to Factset consensus expectations,<b>S&P 500 earnings (comparable caliber) are on track to achieve 66% year-over-year growth (vs. 52% in the first quarter), and Nasdaq Composite 89% year-over-year (vs. 94% in the first quarter).</b>At the plate level, combined with the base number in the second quarter of last year and the repair situation in the second quarter of this year, the current expectation summarized by Factset shows that,<b>Consumer durable goods, banking, raw materials, capital goods and other sectors led the earnings growth rate</b>, on track to achieve earnings growth of more than 100%; Conversely, household goods, healthcare equipment, and utilities are expected to post negative earnings growth in the second quarter.</p><p>Focus: Supply bottlenecks and capacity utilization, capital expenditure</p><p><b>At present, the problems faced by U.S. stock companies are no longer the repair of profits and demand, but more the release of supply and the alleviation of bottlenecks between supply and demand.</b>Therefore, in the second quarter performance period, we need to focus on the production capacity, supply chain repair and inventory of enterprises, especially the management's discussion on related issues. In terms of industries, compared with the high point of the previous investment cycle (July 2018), the current capacity utilization rate of automobiles and parts, air transportation, paper products, petroleum and coal, plastics and rubber, metal processing and other sectors is obviously low, especially for automobiles. The current capacity utilization rate is only 64%, but it fell further in June, which also explains that the price of used cars continued to rise sharply in June, thus pushing inflation higher.</p><p>Outlook: It is expected that the upward revision will continue, but the adjustment sentiment will fall marginally; Third quarter quarter still has stamina</p><p>On the whole, since the second quarter, the market's consensus expectation for the earnings of U.S. stocks has been revised rapidly. However, the more sensitive profit adjustment sentiment (upward adjustment vs. downward adjustment of the number of analysts) began to be revised rapidly in the second quarter, but it began to gradually stabilize at the end of May, indicating that the fastest stage of upward profit revision may have passed, and the kinetic energy of upward revision has slowed down.<b>Looking ahead, although the second quarter will be a year-on-year high due to the low base, we expect that there will still be stamina in the third quarter, mainly due to the further accelerated release of service consumption in the third quarter.</b></p><p><b>This week's focus: What about the upcoming second-quarter performance period of U.S. stocks?</b></p><p>Recently, with the inflation in the United States rising beyond expectations again, the market's concerns about whether the US stock market can continue its upward trend under high inflation and high valuation and whether the Federal Reserve's policy will be tightened ahead of schedule have heated up again.</p><p>In our recent comment \"Inflation Beyond Expectations vs. Relatively Calm Market\", we mentioned that the reason why the market is relatively calm is mainly because it is precisely such a high price (for example, used cars rose by 45% year-on-year, and if used cars are deducted, the CPI in June will be basically flat year-on-year) that the market thinks it is unsustainable, but more importantly, Powell still maintained the judgment that inflation is temporary and is not in a hurry to withdraw from the policy (\"The Federal Reserve is still not in a hurry to withdraw\") at the hearing, which avoided the market from falling into violent fluctuations in the face of unexpected inflation risks.</p><p><i>After deducting used car prices, inflation in June was only basically flat compared with May</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd0162f2599c429c113f4fb6bba6cd1c\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, putting aside some short-term emotional changes, fundamental conditions are the core of judging the medium-term trend of the market.<b>What's more, since the US Treasury yields began to gradually rise in the third quarter of last year, the valuation of U.S. stocks has been basically flat, and earnings are the core variable driving market performance</b>。 Therefore,<b>From a market perspective, we will not turn pessimistic about the market as long as the earnings trend is not completely reversed, even in the face of the volatility that may result from many uncertainties</b>。</p><p>In fact, the first-quarter results greatly exceeded expectations (52% year-on-year vs. the expected 21% and 4% in the fourth quarter of 2020), driving the continuous upward revision of the performance (\"Eight Characteristics of Current U.S. Stock Earnings\"). The current market consensus expectation is that the profit growth rate is expected to reach 38% in 2021 and 11% in 2021.<b>With such strong growth, assuming other conditions remain unchanged, if you switch to earnings in 2022, then the valuation will return to pre-pandemic levels, which in turn makes the seemingly high valuation not that expensive.</b></p><p><i>From a market perspective, we will not turn pessimistic about the market as long as the earnings trend is not completely reversed, even in the face of the volatility that may result from many uncertainties</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e391be2c84b5cb240787e36fd019c74b\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>U.S. Stock Market Stocks have been basically flat since the third quarter of last year</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b7e6447d1346d3f6a1b14792ae1fb01\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>If you switch to 2022 earnings in the second half of the year (light blue), then the valuation will fall back to pre-pandemic levels in 2019 (dark blue)</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d6495bd71eced449a9a243bfec33924\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>S&P 500 2021 EPS consensus is up 38.4% y/y, market consensus is up 10.9% y/y in 2022</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a71ebb5c81492e5a9ac8e8ed4d312b7d\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>I. Overall situation: further accelerated in the second quarter; Durable goods, banks, raw materials and capital goods lead the growth rate</b></p><p>Starting from mid-July, the U.S. stock market will gradually enter the 2Q21 performance period that lasts for one month. As analyzed in \"2H21 Overseas Market Outlook: From Growth Spillover to Liquidity Backlash\", we expect that thanks to the low base last year and the continuous recovery of service consumption under the epidemic vaccination since the second quarter,<b>U.S. Stocks Earnings Growth in the Second Quarter will be the High of the Year</b>。 Specifically, referring to the Factset consensus expectation,<b>S&P 500 earnings (comparable caliber) are on track to achieve 66% year-over-year growth (vs. 52% in the first quarter), and Nasdaq Composite 89% year-over-year (vs. 94% in the first quarter).</b></p><p><i>At present, the market consensus is that the S&P 500 EPS in the second quarter is 65.5% year-on-year, and the Nasdaq Composite Index EPS is expected to be 88.9% year-on-year in the second quarter</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9dac04e5c6cd831a34297db41de0ce8\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Except for net income, S&P 500's second-quarter EBIT is expected to continue to rise compared with the first quarter, and Nasdaq slipped slightly but remained high</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9707e327be510f64aa0b22d4dfc432\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the plate level, combined with the base number in the second quarter of last year and the repair situation in the second quarter of this year, the current expectation summarized by Factset shows that,<b>Consumer durable goods, banking, raw materials, capital goods and other sectors are leading in earnings growth and are expected to achieve earnings growth of more than 100%</b>； Conversely, household goods, healthcare equipment, and utilities are expected to post negative earnings growth in the second quarter.<b>From the perspective of improvement, compared with the first quarter, the value sectors such as durable consumer goods, capital goods, banks and raw materials may improve significantly</b>While the profit growth rate of growth sectors such as retail, healthcare equipment, technology hardware, media and entertainment may decline.</p><p><i>Consumer durable goods and banks improved significantly year-on-year EPS growth in the second quarter, but household goods, healthcare and equipment are expected to lag behind</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7723e780a6d8d49765b7a8eb71c47142\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>This strength-weakness relationship is broadly consistent with the first quarter</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25d827e228fc131c8609e7eb4578ae59\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Compared with the first quarter, consumer durable goods, capital goods, banks, raw materials, etc. improved the most, while retail, diversified finance, medical and healthcare equipment, etc. declined</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/149d7a68d6d77d103d297aa57e509aba\" tg-width=\"812\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Since the second quarter, the 2021e EPS estimate of the energy sector has been adjusted the largest, and the upward adjustment of banks and raw materials has also been significant</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c733067357fdc302b884ee0852845ee0\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Focus: Supply bottleneck, capacity utilization, capital expenditure</b></p><p><b>At present, the problems faced by U.S. stock companies are not the repair of profit and demand, but the release of supply and the relief of bottlenecks between supply and demand</b>。 Therefore, in the second quarter performance period, we need to focus on the production capacity, supply chain repair and inventory of enterprises, especially the management's discussion on related issues. Judging from the monthly high-frequency data as of June, the overall capacity utilization rate of the United States is currently 75.5%, which has not been fully repaired to the level of 75.8% in January, especially for durable consumer goods, which are greatly affected by supply bottlenecks. At present, the capacity utilization rate is only 74%, which is still a distance from the 75% at the beginning of the year and before the epidemic.</p><p>In terms of industries, compared with the high point of the previous investment cycle (July 2018),<b>At present, the capacity utilization rate of automobile and parts, air transportation, paper products, petroleum and coal, plastics and rubber, metal processing and other sectors is obviously low.</b>In particular, the current capacity utilization rate of automobiles is only 64%, but it fell further in June, which also explains that used car prices continued to climb sharply in June, thus pushing inflation higher.</p><p>This can also be reflected in the capital expenditure of enterprises. As of the first quarter, the capital expenditure of American enterprises also shows a very differentiated K-type repair situation. The capital expenditure of those industries with strong demand, full production capacity and ability is repaired faster, such as e-commerce, semiconductor equipment, biopharmaceuticals and other industries; On the contrary, other industries such as energy, transportation and business services are still lagging behind.</p><p><i>Overall U.S. capacity utilization is now at 75.5% and hasn't fully repaired to January's level of 75.8%</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53b499f6322772f960a8b4380161f69e\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In particular, durable consumer goods, which are greatly affected by supply bottlenecks, currently have a capacity utilization rate of only 74%</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fac7dee32811c05608d4996ddc1b6f1e\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The capacity utilization rate of automobile and parts, air transportation, paper products, petroleum and coal, plastics and rubber, metal processing and other sectors is significantly low</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cb6dc355059b752c78fe7e9fd3e6a53\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Cars, in particular, where capacity utilization is currently only 64%, fell further in June, explaining how used car prices continued to climb sharply in June, pushing inflation higher</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c2558b7d03946063043eb4df5726ecf\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>As of the first quarter, the capital expenditure of American enterprises also showed a very differentiated K-shaped repair situation</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cf47a0b5398c71e46bf9d5517126c3a\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>III. Outlook: It is expected that the upward revision will continue, but the margin of adjustment sentiment will drop; Third quarter quarter still has stamina</b></p><p>Overall, since the second quarter, the market's consensus expectation for the earnings of U.S. stocks has been rapidly revised upward. At present, the market expects the EPS of S&P 500 to increase by 38.4% year-on-year in 2021 and 10.9% year-on-year in 2022; Nasdaq EPS increased 49.2% year-over-year in 2021 and 19.0% year-over-year in 2022. However, more sensitive earnings correction sentiment (upward vs. downward analyst number)<b>In the second quarter, the upward revision began rapidly, but it began to gradually stabilize at the end of May, indicating that the fastest stage of upward revision of profits may have passed, and the kinetic energy of upward revision slowed down.</b></p><p>Looking ahead,<b>Although the second quarter will be a year-on-year high due to the low base, we expect that the third quarter will still have stamina, mainly due to the further accelerated release of service consumption in the third quarter</b>。 At present, the market expects that the profit growth rate in the third quarter is 24%, which is one of the main reasons why we are still positive for the growth and market in the United States in the third quarter.</p><p><i>Since the second quarter, the sentiment of profit adjustment has been revised rapidly, but it has gradually stabilized at the end of May, indicating that the fastest stage of profit upward revision may have passed</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5ea5dcaf8bf692d3977f0131cf0d53c\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>We expect there will still be stamina in the third quarter, mainly due to the further accelerated release of service consumption in the third quarter</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b251d0a58c9e8ac467ae4563f1fce6\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Market Dynamics: Inflation rose above expectations in June, and unexpected growth in retail sales showed that demand remained strong; US Treasury yields Hits New Low Bulls Increase, Dollar Shorts Drop</b></p><p><b>► Asset performance: debt> stock> bulk; Interest rates hit new lows, cycle underperforms</b></p><p>The past week has undoubtedly been a week of blockbuster data and events in the United States.<b>After exceeding expectations of June inflation</b>(\"Inflation beyond expectations vs. relatively calm market\"),<b>Still dovish Powell testimony</b>(\"The Federal Reserve is still not in a hurry to quit\"),<b>The overall U.S. stock market closed slightly lower and the financial cycle underperformed after beating expectations for retail sales but missing expectations for consumer confidence index</b>At the same time, the 10-year U.S. bond interest rate dropped to a recent low and fell back to 1.29%. The real interest rate fell, but inflation expectations rose. In terms of major assets in the world, under US dollar pricing, bonds> stocks> bulk, with VIX, soybeans, Brazilian stock market and Hong Kong stocks leading the gains; Bitcoin, crude oil, UK stocks, Nasdaq led the decline.</p><p><i>In the past week, under the US dollar price, bonds> stocks> bulk, with VIX, soybeans, Brazilian stock market and Hong Kong stocks leading the gains; Bitcoin, crude oil, UK stocks, Nasdaq lead declines</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4f9bb5609b5e9bb70a8f407e0033b21\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Utilities, household goods led gains over the past week; Energy, Semiconductors, Consumer Services Lead Declines</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d4d293cd3bdb071f6792ebbed29beee\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In the past week, the 10-year U.S. bond rate fell by about 7bps from last week, with real interest rates falling by 11bps and inflation expectations rising by 4bps</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1264e9221413c868ea309fd8f4baee9\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In the past week, the sectors suffered more and cyclical damage from the epidemic were relatively underperforming, while the sectors suffered less damage from the epidemic were relatively outperforming</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f7bbaaa22ee6b5682383d99404572c2\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Sentiment Positions: Put/call Ratio Lifts, Dollar Shorts Reduce Significantly</b></p><p>In the past week, the ratio of bearish/bullish options (10-day average) in U.S. stocks has risen sharply compared with last week, and it is currently-1 time standard deviation higher than the historical average. In terms of positions, the substantial reduction of long and short positions in the US Dollar Index led to a sharp increase in net long positions; With the further decline of US Treasury yields, the long position of 10-year U.S. debt has increased significantly, and the short position of 2-year U.S. debt has decreased significantly.</p><p><i>CBOE US stock bear/bull option ratio (10-day average) has risen sharply from last week and is currently-1x standard deviation above the historical average</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6d8a29e7882613661c1e3d53d7c1533\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In the past week, the RSI points of European and American stock markets have fallen back, while Japan and emerging stock markets have risen; Oil drop back</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e24fb1dbe1900f171084acec1c0902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Over the past week, long positions in the US Dollar Index have continued to increase, short positions have decreased significantly, and net long positions have risen significantly</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125305e1d2b71dd5479e48f796d27371\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>► Capital flow: the cargo base turns into outflow, and the stock market accelerates its inflow.</b></p><p>In the past week, the inflow of bond market slowed down, the stock market accelerated, and money funds flowed out sharply; In terms of market, the stock markets of the United States and Japan accelerated their inflows, the inflows of developed Europe slowed down, and the emerging markets represented by China turned into inflows.</p><p><i>Over the past week, bond inflows have slowed, stocks have accelerated inflows, and money market funds have turned into big outflows</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9f5e742c9f21463f645f06f585f6dfe\" tg-width=\"1045\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Over the past week, U.S. and Japanese equity markets accelerated inflows, developed Europe slowed, and emerging markets, represented by China, turned into inflows</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd37fbb2a8c413cb479bf41d00fe260d\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Fundamentals and policies: Inflation exceeded expectations again in June, and retail sales grew strongly.</b></p><p><b>In June, inflation in the United States rose more than expected, and used cars and travel remained the main contributors.</b>In June, the CPI was 5.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month, both higher than the previous value and significantly exceeding market expectations. Among them, the price of used cars jumped by 10.5% month-on-month, contributing one-third of the month-on-month growth rate of CPI in June. The supply constraint caused by the lack of chips and other factors is still the main bottleneck. In addition, services related to travel demand after the epidemic recovery and opening, such as air tickets and hotels, also increased significantly. For example, the counting price in June reached 2.7% month-on-month.</p><p><b>Retail sales unexpectedly rose 0.6% month over month in June</b>, higher than the expected-0.3% and previous value (-1.7%). Looking at items,<b>Retail sales of cars and parts fell 2% month-on-month, likely weighed down by recent supply shortages and sharp price hikes</b>But department stores, groceries, electronics and household appliances rose from the previous month. However, retail spending that greatly exceeded expectations was offset by a lower-than-expected University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (80.8 in July, down from the previous value of 85.5 and not as good as expected (86.5). Meanwhile, 360,000 initial applications last week were lower than the previous value (386,000) but not as good as expected 350,000.</p><p><i>Summary of economic data over the past week</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c8becaabb300c614aae82376b1811e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>U.S. CPI exceeded expectations again in June, 5.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month, with used cars and travel-related services still the most important contributors</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be95482ad914743cc46ae03dfd61c7c7\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>U.S. June retail sales 0.6% month-over-month, higher than expectations of-0.3%</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e7d767ac03bf61753c4ea2a31c98b4\" tg-width=\"922\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In terms of items, retail sales of cars and parts fell 2% month-on-month, but department stores, grocery stores, electronics and household appliances rose from the previous month</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26688afd6f0e8018af6ab4646f83a73\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The Fed's average daily reverse repo usage remained high over the past week, exceeding $800 billion</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc2a4bf65f4512b115ac6ba45da7533b\" tg-width=\"1077\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The current balance sheet of the Federal Reserve is about $8.20 trillion, up significantly from last week</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90a6980f71674854b48b80fd7945e5b2\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Market Valuation: Valuations have pulled back slightly.</b></p><p>With the continuous decline of the 10-year US bond interest rate last week, the current static P/E of S&P 500 index 27.7 times is basically at a reasonable level (~27.9 times) that can be supported by growth (ISM manufacturing PMI =60.6 in June) and liquidity (10-year US bond interest rate 1.36%). The valuation levels of stock markets in major global markets, including Europe, Japan and emerging markets, have all declined, but they are at relatively high levels in history.</p><p><i>The current 12-month dynamic P/E of the S&P 500 is down slightly to 21.3 times, more than one standard deviation upward of its mean since 1990</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/375db13e71641a7072dc3fad087b017d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The current 27.7 times static P/E of the S&P 500 is basically at a reasonable level that growth and liquidity can support (~27.9 times)</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593bae75a6b6c4dbec11a5708e95d06b\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/318dced6c8505427ba4c5a73eb4a7981","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151231853","content_text":"摘要\n近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行，市场对高通胀高估值下的美股能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。不过，抛开短期一些情绪变化，基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心。从市场角度，即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动，但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转，我们就不会对市场转为悲观。\n整体情况：二季度增长进一步加速；耐用品、银行、原材料、资本品增速领先。\n参考Factset一致预期，标普500盈利（可比口径）有望实现66%的同比增长（vs. 一季度52%），纳斯达克综指同比89%（vs. 一季度94%）。板块层面，结合去年二季度的基数以及今年二季度的修复情况，当前Factset汇总的预期显示，耐用消费品、银行、原材料、资本品等板块的盈利增速领先，有望实现超过100%的盈利增长；相反，家庭用品、医疗保健设备以及公用事业预计二季度盈利增速为负。\n关注焦点：供应瓶颈与产能利用率、资本开支\n当前美股企业所面临的问题已经不在于盈利和需求的修复，更多在于供给的释放和供需瓶颈的缓解。因此，二季度业绩期，我们需要重点关注企业产能、供应链修复、以及库存的情况，特别是管理层对于相关问题的讨论。分行业来看，相比上一轮投资周期的高点（2018年7月），当前汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率都明显偏低，特别是汽车，当前产能利用率仅为64%，6月份反而还进一步回落，这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高。\n前景展望：预期继续上修，但调整情绪边际回落；三季度环比仍有后劲\n整体看，二季度以来市场对美股盈利一致预期快速上修，不过，更为敏感的盈利调整情绪（上调vs.下调分析师数）二季度开始快速上修，但5月末开始逐步企稳，预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去，上修动能减缓。往前看，虽然二季度得益于低基数将是同比高点，但我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲，主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放。\n本周焦点：即将开始的美股二季度业绩期如何？\n近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行，市场对于高通胀高估值下的美股市场能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。\n我们在近期的点评《大超预期的通胀 vs.相对淡定的市场》中提到，市场之所以表现的相对淡定主要是由于恰恰是如此高的价格（例如二手车同比大涨45%，如果扣掉二手车的话6月CPI同比将基本持平）让市场认为是无法持续的，但更重要的是鲍威尔在听证会上依然维持通胀是暂时性且不急于政策退出的判断（《美联储依然不急于退出》），这避免了让市场在面对超预期的通胀风险下陷入剧烈波动。\n扣除掉二手车价格后，6月通胀同比较5月仅基本持平\n\n不过，抛开短期一些情绪上的变化，基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心，更何况去年三季度美债利率开始逐步上行以来，美股估值就基本持平，而盈利是推动市场表现的核心变量。因此，从市场角度，即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动，但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转，我们就不会对市场转为悲观。\n实际上，一季度业绩大超预期（同比52% vs. 预期的21%和2020年四季度4%），推动业绩持续上修（《当前美股盈利的八个特征》），当前市场一致预期预计2021年盈利增速有望达到38%，2021年为11%，在这样一个强劲增长下，假设其他条件不变，如果切换到2022年盈利，那么估值将重新回到疫情前水平，进而使得看似很高的估值并没有那么贵。\n从市场角度，即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动，但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转，我们就不会对市场转为悲观\n\n美股市场股市从去年三季度以来基本持平\n\n下半年如果切换到2022年盈利（浅蓝色），那么估值将回落至2019年疫情前水平（深蓝色）\n\n标普500指数2021年EPS一致预期同比增长38.4%，市场一致预期2022年同比增长10.9%\n\n一、整体情况：二季度进一步加速；耐用品、银行、原材料、资本品增速领先\n7月中旬开始，美股市场将逐步进入持续一个月的2Q21业绩期。如我们在《2H21海外市场展望：从增长外溢到流动性反噬》中分析，我们预计得益于去年低基数以及二季度以来疫情接种下服务性消费的持续修复，美股二季度盈利增速将是年内高点。具体来看，参考Factset一致预期，标普500盈利（可比口径）有望实现66%的同比增长（vs. 一季度52%），纳斯达克综指同比89%（vs. 一季度94%）。\n目前市场共识预计标普500二季度EPS同比65.5%，纳斯达克综指EPS预计二季度同比88.9%\n\n除净利润外，标普500二季度EBIT预计较一季度继续抬升，纳斯达克略有下滑，但仍处高位\n\n板块层面，结合去年二季度的基数以及今年二季度的修复情况，当前Factset汇总的预期显示，耐用消费品、银行、原材料、资本品等板块的盈利增速领先，有望实现超过100%的盈利增长；相反，家庭用品、医疗保健设备以及公用事业预计二季度盈利增速为负。从改善幅度来看，相比一季度，耐用消费品、资本品、银行及原材料等价值板块或将改善明显，而零售、医疗保健设备、科技硬件、媒体娱乐等成长板块盈利增速或有所回落。\n耐用消费品、银行二季度EPS同比增速改善明显，但家庭用品、医疗保健与设备预计落后\n\n这一强弱关系与一季度的情形大体一致\n\n对比一季度，耐用消费品、资本品、银行、原材料等改善幅度最大，零售、多元金融、医疗保健设备等下滑\n\n二季度以来，能源板块2021e EPS预期调整幅度最大，银行、原材料等上调幅度同样显著\n\n二、关注焦点：供应瓶颈与产能利用率、资本开支\n当前美股企业所面临的问题已经不在于盈利和需求的修复，更多在于供给的释放和供需瓶颈的缓解。因此，二季度业绩期，我们需要重点关注企业产能、供应链修复、以及库存的情况，特别是管理层对于相关问题的讨论。从截至6月的月度高频数据来看，美国整体产能利用率目前为75.5%，还没有完全修复至1月75.8%的水平，尤其是受供应瓶颈影响较大的耐用消费品，目前产能利用率仅为74%，距离年初和疫情前的75%都仍有距离。\n分行业来看，相比上一轮投资周期的高点（2018年7月），当前汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率都明显偏低，特别是汽车，当前产能利用率仅为64%，6月份反而还进一步回落，这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高。\n这一点从企业的资本开支情况也可以得到体现，从截止一季度的情况看，美国企业的资本开支也呈现非常分化的K型修复局面，那些需求旺盛、产能已经打满且有能力的行业资本开支修复更快，例如电商、半导体设备、生物制药等行业；相反其他行业如能源、交运、商业服务等依然落后。\n美国整体产能利用率目前为75.5%，还没有完全修复至1月75.8%的水平\n\n 尤其是受供应瓶颈影响较大的耐用消费品，目前产能利用率仅为74%\n\n汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率明显偏低\n\n特别是汽车，当前产能利用率仅为64%，6月份反而还进一步回落，这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高\n\n截止一季度的情况看，美国企业的资本开支也呈现非常分化的K型修复局面\n\n三、前景展望：预期继续上修，但调整情绪边际回落；三季度环比仍有后劲\n整体来看，二季度以来市场对于美股盈利的一致预期快速上修，目前，市场预计标普5002021年EPS同比增长38.4%，2022年EPS同比增长10.9%；纳斯达克2021年EPS同比增长49.2%，2022年EPS同比上升19.0%。不过，更为敏感的盈利调整情绪（上调 vs.下调分析师数）二季度开始快速上修，但5月末开始逐步企稳，预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去，上修动能减缓。\n往前看，虽然二季度得益于低基数将是同比高点，但我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲，主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放。目前市场预期预计三季度盈利增速24%，这也是我们对于三季度美国增长和市场依然维持积极的主要原因之一。\n二季度以来，盈利调整情绪快速上修，但5月末逐步企稳，预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去\n\n我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲，主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放\n\n市场动态：6月通胀超预期上行，零售销售意外增长显示需求依然强劲；美债利率再创新低多头增加，美元空头大降\n►资产表现：债>股>大宗；利率再创新低，周期跑输\n过去一周毫无疑问是美国的重磅数据和事件周。在经历了超预期的6月通胀（《大超预期的通胀 vs.相对淡定的市场》）、依然鸽派的鲍威尔证词（《美联储依然不急于退出》）、超预期的零售销售但不及预期的消费者信心指数后，美股市场整体小幅收跌，金融周期跑输，同时10年美债利率再降近期新低并回落至1.29%，实际利率回落，但通胀预期抬升。全球主要资产来看，美元计价下，债>股>大宗，VIX、大豆、巴西股市、港股领涨；比特币、原油、英国股市、纳斯达克领跌。\n过去一周，美元计价下，债>股>大宗，VIX、大豆、巴西股市、港股领涨；比特币、原油、英国股市、纳斯达克领跌\n\n过去一周，公用事业、家庭用品领涨；能源、半导体、消费者服务领跌\n\n过去一周，10年美债利率较上周回落约7bps，其中实际利率回落11bps，通胀预期上升4bps\n\n过去一周，疫情受损多及周期板块相对跑输，疫情受损少板块相对跑赢\n\n►情绪仓位：Put/call比例抬升，美元空头大幅减少\n过去一周，美股看空/看多期权比例（10天平均）较上周大幅抬升，目前高于历史均值-1倍标准差。仓位方面，美元指数多头空头仓位大幅减少导致净多头大幅抬升；伴随美债利率的进一步回落，10年美债多头仓位大幅增加，2年美债空头仓位大幅减少。\nCBOE美股看空/看多期权比例（10天平均）较上周大幅抬升，目前高于历史均值-1倍标准差\n\n过去一周，欧美股市RSI点位均回落，日本及新兴抬升；布油回落\n\n过去一周，美元指数多头仓位继续增加，空头仓位大幅减少，净多头大幅抬升\n\n►资金流向：货基转为流出，股市加速流入。\n过去一周，债市流入放缓，股市加速流入，货币基金大幅流出；分市场看，美国及日本股市加速流入，发达欧洲流入放缓，以中国为代表的新兴市场转为流入。\n过去一周，债市流入放缓，股市加速流入，货币市场基金转为大幅流出\n\n过去一周，美国及日本股市加速流入，发达欧洲流入放缓，以中国为代表的新兴市场转为流入\n\n►基本面与政策：6月通胀再超预期，零售强势增长。\n6月美国通胀超预期上行，二手车和出行相关仍是主要贡献。6月CPI同比5.4%环比0.9%，均高于前值且大幅超出市场预期。其中，二手车价格环比跳升10.5%，贡献了6月CPI环比增速的三分之一，缺少芯片等因素导致的供给受限依然是主要瓶颈。此外，机票、酒店等与疫情修复开放后的出行需求相关的服务也涨幅明显，例如6月计票价格环比达2.7%。\n6月零售销售环比意外增长0.6%，高于预期的-0.3%和前值（-1.7%）。分项看，汽车与零部件零售销售环比下降2%，可能受近期供应紧缺和价格大涨拖累，但百货商店、杂货、电子和家用电器等较前月抬升。不过大超预期的零售消费被低于预期的密歇根大学消费者信心指数所抵消（7月80.8，低于前值85.5并不及预期（86.5）。与此同时，上周首申人数36.0万人，低于前值（38.6万人）但不及预期的35.0万人。\n过去一周经济数据总结\n\n美国6月CPI再超预期，同比5.4%环比0.9%，二手车和出行相关服务依然是最主要贡献\n\n美国6月零售销售环比 0.6%，高于预期的-0.3%\n\n分项看，汽车与零部件零售销售环比下降2%，但百货商店、杂货店、电子和家用电器等较前月抬升\n\n过去一周，美联储平均日度逆回购使用量仍处高位，超8000亿美元\n\n 美联储资产负债表目前规模约8.20万亿美元，较上周抬升明显\n\n►市场估值：估值略有回落。\n伴随10年美债利率上周的持续回落，当前标普500指数27.7倍静态P/E基本处于增长（6月ISM制造业PMI=60.6）和流动性（10年美债利率1.36%）能够支撑的合理水平（~27.9倍）。包括欧洲、日本、新兴在内的全球主要市场股市的估值水平均有回落，但处于历史相对高位。\n当前标普500指数12个月动态P/E微降至21.3倍，超过1990年以来均值向上一倍标准差\n\n当前标普500的27.7倍静态P/E基本处于增长和流动性能够支撑的合理水平（~27.9倍）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173979895,"gmtCreate":1626608863817,"gmtModify":1703762287213,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571552996196002","authorIdStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"No","listText":"No","text":"No","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173979895","repostId":"1172207687","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173979123,"gmtCreate":1626608790262,"gmtModify":1703762286891,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571552996196002","authorIdStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173979123","repostId":"1160796593","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160796593","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626606185,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1160796593?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-18 19:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"OPEC + agrees to boost oil production, ending current stalemate","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160796593","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月18日，在沙特和阿联酋解决了一项阻碍协议达成的争端后，欧佩克及其盟友同意逐步向市场增加石油供应。与会代表表示，该组织将每月增产至多40万桶/日，直到所有闲置的产能都恢复，根据协议，阿联酋、伊拉克和","content":"<p>On July 18, OPEC and its allies agreed to gradually increase oil supplies to the market after Saudi Arabia and the UAE resolved a dispute that blocked a deal. The organization will increase production by up to 400,000 bpd per month until all spare capacity is restored, according to the agreement, with the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait receiving higher production quotas from May 2022. The agreement will ease the looming supply crunch and reduce the risk of higher oil prices. It also capped a stalemate that unnerved traders.</p><p>OPEC + agreed a new baseline of 3.5 million barrels per day for crude oil production cuts in the UAE, which will take effect from May 2022.</p><p>In addition to the UAE, other OPEC + members are also expected to receive new benchmarks for production cuts, with Iraq and Kuwait raising their production baselines by 150,000 bpd each.</p><p>OPEC + agreed to adjust benchmark Saudi and Russian oil production to 11.5 million barrels per day from the previous 11 million barrels per day starting in May 2022.</p><p>OPEC + has also agreed to further ease production cuts from August, with a new crude oil cut benchmark coming into effect in May 2022.</p><p>OPEC + has reached an agreement on crude oil production, and the next OPEC + meeting will be held on September 21, agreeing to extend the agreement to cut production until the end of 2022.</p><p>The OPEC draft statement shows that OPEC + plans to fully cancel the 5.8 million bpd production cut by September 2022, when market conditions allow.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>OPEC + agrees to boost oil production, ending current stalemate</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOPEC + agrees to boost oil production, ending current stalemate\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-18 19:03</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On July 18, OPEC and its allies agreed to gradually increase oil supplies to the market after Saudi Arabia and the UAE resolved a dispute that blocked a deal. The organization will increase production by up to 400,000 bpd per month until all spare capacity is restored, according to the agreement, with the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait receiving higher production quotas from May 2022. The agreement will ease the looming supply crunch and reduce the risk of higher oil prices. It also capped a stalemate that unnerved traders.</p><p>OPEC + agreed a new baseline of 3.5 million barrels per day for crude oil production cuts in the UAE, which will take effect from May 2022.</p><p>In addition to the UAE, other OPEC + members are also expected to receive new benchmarks for production cuts, with Iraq and Kuwait raising their production baselines by 150,000 bpd each.</p><p>OPEC + agreed to adjust benchmark Saudi and Russian oil production to 11.5 million barrels per day from the previous 11 million barrels per day starting in May 2022.</p><p>OPEC + has also agreed to further ease production cuts from August, with a new crude oil cut benchmark coming into effect in May 2022.</p><p>OPEC + has reached an agreement on crude oil production, and the next OPEC + meeting will be held on September 21, agreeing to extend the agreement to cut production until the end of 2022.</p><p>The OPEC draft statement shows that OPEC + plans to fully cancel the 5.8 million bpd production cut by September 2022, when market conditions allow.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba0e918dfd4ec815c4f78fc4cfc3ea3e","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160796593","content_text":"7月18日，在沙特和阿联酋解决了一项阻碍协议达成的争端后，欧佩克及其盟友同意逐步向市场增加石油供应。与会代表表示，该组织将每月增产至多40万桶/日，直到所有闲置的产能都恢复，根据协议，阿联酋、伊拉克和科威特从2022年5月起将获得更高的产量配额。协议将缓解迫在眉睫的供应紧张，并降低油价上涨的风险。这也为一场令交易员不安的僵局画上了句号。\nOPEC+同意阿联酋的原油减产新基线为350万桶/日，将于2022年5月开始生效。\n除了阿联酋，其他OPEC+成员也有望获得新的减产基准，伊拉克和科威特的产量基线分别提高15万桶/天。\n欧佩克+同意从2022年5月开始，将沙特和俄罗斯的基准石油产量从之前的1100万桶/日调整为1150万桶/日。\nOPEC+还同意从8月起进一步放宽减产，新的原油减产基准线将于2022年5月生效。\n欧佩克+已经就原油生产问题达成协议，下一次欧佩克+会议将在9月21日举行，同意将减产协议延长至2022年底。\n欧佩克草案声明显示，欧佩克+计划在2022年9月之前，在市场条件允许的情况下，全面取消580万桶/日的减产。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179150935,"gmtCreate":1626495402127,"gmtModify":1703761141838,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571552996196002","authorIdStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/179150935","repostId":"1130243635","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1107,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":800811255,"gmtCreate":1627290274977,"gmtModify":1703486870991,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571552996196002","idStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/800811255","repostId":"1181109009","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173979257,"gmtCreate":1626608906779,"gmtModify":1703762287535,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571552996196002","idStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173979257","repostId":"1151231853","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151231853","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"市场策略研究、热点问题观察、分享最新观点：美国与海外市场、H股、及中概股市场","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Kevin策略研究","id":"1090746012","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90"},"pubTimestamp":1626604009,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1151231853?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-18 18:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"CICC Overseas: US Stocks Earnings in the Second Quarter are Expected to Further Accelerate Growth","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151231853","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"摘要\n近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行，市场对高通胀高估值下的美股能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。不过，抛开短期一些情绪变化，基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心。从市场角","content":"<p><b>Abstract</b></p><p>Recently, as inflation in the United States has risen beyond expectations again, the market's concerns about whether U.S. stocks under high inflation and high valuation can continue their upward trend and whether the Federal Reserve's policy will be tightened ahead of schedule have heated up again. However, aside from some short-term emotional changes, fundamental conditions are the core of judging the medium-term trend of the market.<b>From the market perspective, even in the face of many uncertainties, as long as the profit trend is not completely reversed, we will not turn pessimistic about the market.</b></p><p>Overall: Growth further accelerated in the second quarter; Durable goods, banks, raw materials and capital goods led the growth rate.</p><p>Referring to Factset consensus expectations,<b>S&P 500 earnings (comparable caliber) are on track to achieve 66% year-over-year growth (vs. 52% in the first quarter), and Nasdaq Composite 89% year-over-year (vs. 94% in the first quarter).</b>At the plate level, combined with the base number in the second quarter of last year and the repair situation in the second quarter of this year, the current expectation summarized by Factset shows that,<b>Consumer durable goods, banking, raw materials, capital goods and other sectors led the earnings growth rate</b>, on track to achieve earnings growth of more than 100%; Conversely, household goods, healthcare equipment, and utilities are expected to post negative earnings growth in the second quarter.</p><p>Focus: Supply bottlenecks and capacity utilization, capital expenditure</p><p><b>At present, the problems faced by U.S. stock companies are no longer the repair of profits and demand, but more the release of supply and the alleviation of bottlenecks between supply and demand.</b>Therefore, in the second quarter performance period, we need to focus on the production capacity, supply chain repair and inventory of enterprises, especially the management's discussion on related issues. In terms of industries, compared with the high point of the previous investment cycle (July 2018), the current capacity utilization rate of automobiles and parts, air transportation, paper products, petroleum and coal, plastics and rubber, metal processing and other sectors is obviously low, especially for automobiles. The current capacity utilization rate is only 64%, but it fell further in June, which also explains that the price of used cars continued to rise sharply in June, thus pushing inflation higher.</p><p>Outlook: It is expected that the upward revision will continue, but the adjustment sentiment will fall marginally; Third quarter quarter still has stamina</p><p>On the whole, since the second quarter, the market's consensus expectation for the earnings of U.S. stocks has been revised rapidly. However, the more sensitive profit adjustment sentiment (upward adjustment vs. downward adjustment of the number of analysts) began to be revised rapidly in the second quarter, but it began to gradually stabilize at the end of May, indicating that the fastest stage of upward profit revision may have passed, and the kinetic energy of upward revision has slowed down.<b>Looking ahead, although the second quarter will be a year-on-year high due to the low base, we expect that there will still be stamina in the third quarter, mainly due to the further accelerated release of service consumption in the third quarter.</b></p><p><b>This week's focus: What about the upcoming second-quarter performance period of U.S. stocks?</b></p><p>Recently, with the inflation in the United States rising beyond expectations again, the market's concerns about whether the US stock market can continue its upward trend under high inflation and high valuation and whether the Federal Reserve's policy will be tightened ahead of schedule have heated up again.</p><p>In our recent comment \"Inflation Beyond Expectations vs. Relatively Calm Market\", we mentioned that the reason why the market is relatively calm is mainly because it is precisely such a high price (for example, used cars rose by 45% year-on-year, and if used cars are deducted, the CPI in June will be basically flat year-on-year) that the market thinks it is unsustainable, but more importantly, Powell still maintained the judgment that inflation is temporary and is not in a hurry to withdraw from the policy (\"The Federal Reserve is still not in a hurry to withdraw\") at the hearing, which avoided the market from falling into violent fluctuations in the face of unexpected inflation risks.</p><p><i>After deducting used car prices, inflation in June was only basically flat compared with May</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd0162f2599c429c113f4fb6bba6cd1c\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, putting aside some short-term emotional changes, fundamental conditions are the core of judging the medium-term trend of the market.<b>What's more, since the US Treasury yields began to gradually rise in the third quarter of last year, the valuation of U.S. stocks has been basically flat, and earnings are the core variable driving market performance</b>。 Therefore,<b>From a market perspective, we will not turn pessimistic about the market as long as the earnings trend is not completely reversed, even in the face of the volatility that may result from many uncertainties</b>。</p><p>In fact, the first-quarter results greatly exceeded expectations (52% year-on-year vs. the expected 21% and 4% in the fourth quarter of 2020), driving the continuous upward revision of the performance (\"Eight Characteristics of Current U.S. Stock Earnings\"). The current market consensus expectation is that the profit growth rate is expected to reach 38% in 2021 and 11% in 2021.<b>With such strong growth, assuming other conditions remain unchanged, if you switch to earnings in 2022, then the valuation will return to pre-pandemic levels, which in turn makes the seemingly high valuation not that expensive.</b></p><p><i>From a market perspective, we will not turn pessimistic about the market as long as the earnings trend is not completely reversed, even in the face of the volatility that may result from many uncertainties</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e391be2c84b5cb240787e36fd019c74b\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>U.S. Stock Market Stocks have been basically flat since the third quarter of last year</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b7e6447d1346d3f6a1b14792ae1fb01\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>If you switch to 2022 earnings in the second half of the year (light blue), then the valuation will fall back to pre-pandemic levels in 2019 (dark blue)</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d6495bd71eced449a9a243bfec33924\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>S&P 500 2021 EPS consensus is up 38.4% y/y, market consensus is up 10.9% y/y in 2022</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a71ebb5c81492e5a9ac8e8ed4d312b7d\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>I. Overall situation: further accelerated in the second quarter; Durable goods, banks, raw materials and capital goods lead the growth rate</b></p><p>Starting from mid-July, the U.S. stock market will gradually enter the 2Q21 performance period that lasts for one month. As analyzed in \"2H21 Overseas Market Outlook: From Growth Spillover to Liquidity Backlash\", we expect that thanks to the low base last year and the continuous recovery of service consumption under the epidemic vaccination since the second quarter,<b>U.S. Stocks Earnings Growth in the Second Quarter will be the High of the Year</b>。 Specifically, referring to the Factset consensus expectation,<b>S&P 500 earnings (comparable caliber) are on track to achieve 66% year-over-year growth (vs. 52% in the first quarter), and Nasdaq Composite 89% year-over-year (vs. 94% in the first quarter).</b></p><p><i>At present, the market consensus is that the S&P 500 EPS in the second quarter is 65.5% year-on-year, and the Nasdaq Composite Index EPS is expected to be 88.9% year-on-year in the second quarter</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9dac04e5c6cd831a34297db41de0ce8\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Except for net income, S&P 500's second-quarter EBIT is expected to continue to rise compared with the first quarter, and Nasdaq slipped slightly but remained high</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9707e327be510f64aa0b22d4dfc432\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the plate level, combined with the base number in the second quarter of last year and the repair situation in the second quarter of this year, the current expectation summarized by Factset shows that,<b>Consumer durable goods, banking, raw materials, capital goods and other sectors are leading in earnings growth and are expected to achieve earnings growth of more than 100%</b>； Conversely, household goods, healthcare equipment, and utilities are expected to post negative earnings growth in the second quarter.<b>From the perspective of improvement, compared with the first quarter, the value sectors such as durable consumer goods, capital goods, banks and raw materials may improve significantly</b>While the profit growth rate of growth sectors such as retail, healthcare equipment, technology hardware, media and entertainment may decline.</p><p><i>Consumer durable goods and banks improved significantly year-on-year EPS growth in the second quarter, but household goods, healthcare and equipment are expected to lag behind</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7723e780a6d8d49765b7a8eb71c47142\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>This strength-weakness relationship is broadly consistent with the first quarter</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25d827e228fc131c8609e7eb4578ae59\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Compared with the first quarter, consumer durable goods, capital goods, banks, raw materials, etc. improved the most, while retail, diversified finance, medical and healthcare equipment, etc. declined</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/149d7a68d6d77d103d297aa57e509aba\" tg-width=\"812\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Since the second quarter, the 2021e EPS estimate of the energy sector has been adjusted the largest, and the upward adjustment of banks and raw materials has also been significant</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c733067357fdc302b884ee0852845ee0\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Focus: Supply bottleneck, capacity utilization, capital expenditure</b></p><p><b>At present, the problems faced by U.S. stock companies are not the repair of profit and demand, but the release of supply and the relief of bottlenecks between supply and demand</b>。 Therefore, in the second quarter performance period, we need to focus on the production capacity, supply chain repair and inventory of enterprises, especially the management's discussion on related issues. Judging from the monthly high-frequency data as of June, the overall capacity utilization rate of the United States is currently 75.5%, which has not been fully repaired to the level of 75.8% in January, especially for durable consumer goods, which are greatly affected by supply bottlenecks. At present, the capacity utilization rate is only 74%, which is still a distance from the 75% at the beginning of the year and before the epidemic.</p><p>In terms of industries, compared with the high point of the previous investment cycle (July 2018),<b>At present, the capacity utilization rate of automobile and parts, air transportation, paper products, petroleum and coal, plastics and rubber, metal processing and other sectors is obviously low.</b>In particular, the current capacity utilization rate of automobiles is only 64%, but it fell further in June, which also explains that used car prices continued to climb sharply in June, thus pushing inflation higher.</p><p>This can also be reflected in the capital expenditure of enterprises. As of the first quarter, the capital expenditure of American enterprises also shows a very differentiated K-type repair situation. The capital expenditure of those industries with strong demand, full production capacity and ability is repaired faster, such as e-commerce, semiconductor equipment, biopharmaceuticals and other industries; On the contrary, other industries such as energy, transportation and business services are still lagging behind.</p><p><i>Overall U.S. capacity utilization is now at 75.5% and hasn't fully repaired to January's level of 75.8%</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53b499f6322772f960a8b4380161f69e\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In particular, durable consumer goods, which are greatly affected by supply bottlenecks, currently have a capacity utilization rate of only 74%</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fac7dee32811c05608d4996ddc1b6f1e\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The capacity utilization rate of automobile and parts, air transportation, paper products, petroleum and coal, plastics and rubber, metal processing and other sectors is significantly low</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cb6dc355059b752c78fe7e9fd3e6a53\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Cars, in particular, where capacity utilization is currently only 64%, fell further in June, explaining how used car prices continued to climb sharply in June, pushing inflation higher</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c2558b7d03946063043eb4df5726ecf\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>As of the first quarter, the capital expenditure of American enterprises also showed a very differentiated K-shaped repair situation</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cf47a0b5398c71e46bf9d5517126c3a\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>III. Outlook: It is expected that the upward revision will continue, but the margin of adjustment sentiment will drop; Third quarter quarter still has stamina</b></p><p>Overall, since the second quarter, the market's consensus expectation for the earnings of U.S. stocks has been rapidly revised upward. At present, the market expects the EPS of S&P 500 to increase by 38.4% year-on-year in 2021 and 10.9% year-on-year in 2022; Nasdaq EPS increased 49.2% year-over-year in 2021 and 19.0% year-over-year in 2022. However, more sensitive earnings correction sentiment (upward vs. downward analyst number)<b>In the second quarter, the upward revision began rapidly, but it began to gradually stabilize at the end of May, indicating that the fastest stage of upward revision of profits may have passed, and the kinetic energy of upward revision slowed down.</b></p><p>Looking ahead,<b>Although the second quarter will be a year-on-year high due to the low base, we expect that the third quarter will still have stamina, mainly due to the further accelerated release of service consumption in the third quarter</b>。 At present, the market expects that the profit growth rate in the third quarter is 24%, which is one of the main reasons why we are still positive for the growth and market in the United States in the third quarter.</p><p><i>Since the second quarter, the sentiment of profit adjustment has been revised rapidly, but it has gradually stabilized at the end of May, indicating that the fastest stage of profit upward revision may have passed</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5ea5dcaf8bf692d3977f0131cf0d53c\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>We expect there will still be stamina in the third quarter, mainly due to the further accelerated release of service consumption in the third quarter</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b251d0a58c9e8ac467ae4563f1fce6\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Market Dynamics: Inflation rose above expectations in June, and unexpected growth in retail sales showed that demand remained strong; US Treasury yields Hits New Low Bulls Increase, Dollar Shorts Drop</b></p><p><b>► Asset performance: debt> stock> bulk; Interest rates hit new lows, cycle underperforms</b></p><p>The past week has undoubtedly been a week of blockbuster data and events in the United States.<b>After exceeding expectations of June inflation</b>(\"Inflation beyond expectations vs. relatively calm market\"),<b>Still dovish Powell testimony</b>(\"The Federal Reserve is still not in a hurry to quit\"),<b>The overall U.S. stock market closed slightly lower and the financial cycle underperformed after beating expectations for retail sales but missing expectations for consumer confidence index</b>At the same time, the 10-year U.S. bond interest rate dropped to a recent low and fell back to 1.29%. The real interest rate fell, but inflation expectations rose. In terms of major assets in the world, under US dollar pricing, bonds> stocks> bulk, with VIX, soybeans, Brazilian stock market and Hong Kong stocks leading the gains; Bitcoin, crude oil, UK stocks, Nasdaq led the decline.</p><p><i>In the past week, under the US dollar price, bonds> stocks> bulk, with VIX, soybeans, Brazilian stock market and Hong Kong stocks leading the gains; Bitcoin, crude oil, UK stocks, Nasdaq lead declines</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4f9bb5609b5e9bb70a8f407e0033b21\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Utilities, household goods led gains over the past week; Energy, Semiconductors, Consumer Services Lead Declines</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d4d293cd3bdb071f6792ebbed29beee\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In the past week, the 10-year U.S. bond rate fell by about 7bps from last week, with real interest rates falling by 11bps and inflation expectations rising by 4bps</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1264e9221413c868ea309fd8f4baee9\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In the past week, the sectors suffered more and cyclical damage from the epidemic were relatively underperforming, while the sectors suffered less damage from the epidemic were relatively outperforming</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f7bbaaa22ee6b5682383d99404572c2\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Sentiment Positions: Put/call Ratio Lifts, Dollar Shorts Reduce Significantly</b></p><p>In the past week, the ratio of bearish/bullish options (10-day average) in U.S. stocks has risen sharply compared with last week, and it is currently-1 time standard deviation higher than the historical average. In terms of positions, the substantial reduction of long and short positions in the US Dollar Index led to a sharp increase in net long positions; With the further decline of US Treasury yields, the long position of 10-year U.S. debt has increased significantly, and the short position of 2-year U.S. debt has decreased significantly.</p><p><i>CBOE US stock bear/bull option ratio (10-day average) has risen sharply from last week and is currently-1x standard deviation above the historical average</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6d8a29e7882613661c1e3d53d7c1533\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In the past week, the RSI points of European and American stock markets have fallen back, while Japan and emerging stock markets have risen; Oil drop back</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e24fb1dbe1900f171084acec1c0902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Over the past week, long positions in the US Dollar Index have continued to increase, short positions have decreased significantly, and net long positions have risen significantly</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125305e1d2b71dd5479e48f796d27371\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>► Capital flow: the cargo base turns into outflow, and the stock market accelerates its inflow.</b></p><p>In the past week, the inflow of bond market slowed down, the stock market accelerated, and money funds flowed out sharply; In terms of market, the stock markets of the United States and Japan accelerated their inflows, the inflows of developed Europe slowed down, and the emerging markets represented by China turned into inflows.</p><p><i>Over the past week, bond inflows have slowed, stocks have accelerated inflows, and money market funds have turned into big outflows</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9f5e742c9f21463f645f06f585f6dfe\" tg-width=\"1045\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Over the past week, U.S. and Japanese equity markets accelerated inflows, developed Europe slowed, and emerging markets, represented by China, turned into inflows</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd37fbb2a8c413cb479bf41d00fe260d\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Fundamentals and policies: Inflation exceeded expectations again in June, and retail sales grew strongly.</b></p><p><b>In June, inflation in the United States rose more than expected, and used cars and travel remained the main contributors.</b>In June, the CPI was 5.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month, both higher than the previous value and significantly exceeding market expectations. Among them, the price of used cars jumped by 10.5% month-on-month, contributing one-third of the month-on-month growth rate of CPI in June. The supply constraint caused by the lack of chips and other factors is still the main bottleneck. In addition, services related to travel demand after the epidemic recovery and opening, such as air tickets and hotels, also increased significantly. For example, the counting price in June reached 2.7% month-on-month.</p><p><b>Retail sales unexpectedly rose 0.6% month over month in June</b>, higher than the expected-0.3% and previous value (-1.7%). Looking at items,<b>Retail sales of cars and parts fell 2% month-on-month, likely weighed down by recent supply shortages and sharp price hikes</b>But department stores, groceries, electronics and household appliances rose from the previous month. However, retail spending that greatly exceeded expectations was offset by a lower-than-expected University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (80.8 in July, down from the previous value of 85.5 and not as good as expected (86.5). Meanwhile, 360,000 initial applications last week were lower than the previous value (386,000) but not as good as expected 350,000.</p><p><i>Summary of economic data over the past week</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c8becaabb300c614aae82376b1811e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>U.S. CPI exceeded expectations again in June, 5.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month, with used cars and travel-related services still the most important contributors</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be95482ad914743cc46ae03dfd61c7c7\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>U.S. June retail sales 0.6% month-over-month, higher than expectations of-0.3%</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e7d767ac03bf61753c4ea2a31c98b4\" tg-width=\"922\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In terms of items, retail sales of cars and parts fell 2% month-on-month, but department stores, grocery stores, electronics and household appliances rose from the previous month</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26688afd6f0e8018af6ab4646f83a73\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The Fed's average daily reverse repo usage remained high over the past week, exceeding $800 billion</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc2a4bf65f4512b115ac6ba45da7533b\" tg-width=\"1077\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The current balance sheet of the Federal Reserve is about $8.20 trillion, up significantly from last week</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90a6980f71674854b48b80fd7945e5b2\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Market Valuation: Valuations have pulled back slightly.</b></p><p>With the continuous decline of the 10-year US bond interest rate last week, the current static P/E of S&P 500 index 27.7 times is basically at a reasonable level (~27.9 times) that can be supported by growth (ISM manufacturing PMI =60.6 in June) and liquidity (10-year US bond interest rate 1.36%). The valuation levels of stock markets in major global markets, including Europe, Japan and emerging markets, have all declined, but they are at relatively high levels in history.</p><p><i>The current 12-month dynamic P/E of the S&P 500 is down slightly to 21.3 times, more than one standard deviation upward of its mean since 1990</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/375db13e71641a7072dc3fad087b017d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The current 27.7 times static P/E of the S&P 500 is basically at a reasonable level that growth and liquidity can support (~27.9 times)</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593bae75a6b6c4dbec11a5708e95d06b\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CICC Overseas: US Stocks Earnings in the Second Quarter are Expected to Further Accelerate Growth</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCICC Overseas: US Stocks Earnings in the Second Quarter are Expected to Further Accelerate Growth\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1090746012\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Kevin策略研究 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-18 18:26</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Abstract</b></p><p>Recently, as inflation in the United States has risen beyond expectations again, the market's concerns about whether U.S. stocks under high inflation and high valuation can continue their upward trend and whether the Federal Reserve's policy will be tightened ahead of schedule have heated up again. However, aside from some short-term emotional changes, fundamental conditions are the core of judging the medium-term trend of the market.<b>From the market perspective, even in the face of many uncertainties, as long as the profit trend is not completely reversed, we will not turn pessimistic about the market.</b></p><p>Overall: Growth further accelerated in the second quarter; Durable goods, banks, raw materials and capital goods led the growth rate.</p><p>Referring to Factset consensus expectations,<b>S&P 500 earnings (comparable caliber) are on track to achieve 66% year-over-year growth (vs. 52% in the first quarter), and Nasdaq Composite 89% year-over-year (vs. 94% in the first quarter).</b>At the plate level, combined with the base number in the second quarter of last year and the repair situation in the second quarter of this year, the current expectation summarized by Factset shows that,<b>Consumer durable goods, banking, raw materials, capital goods and other sectors led the earnings growth rate</b>, on track to achieve earnings growth of more than 100%; Conversely, household goods, healthcare equipment, and utilities are expected to post negative earnings growth in the second quarter.</p><p>Focus: Supply bottlenecks and capacity utilization, capital expenditure</p><p><b>At present, the problems faced by U.S. stock companies are no longer the repair of profits and demand, but more the release of supply and the alleviation of bottlenecks between supply and demand.</b>Therefore, in the second quarter performance period, we need to focus on the production capacity, supply chain repair and inventory of enterprises, especially the management's discussion on related issues. In terms of industries, compared with the high point of the previous investment cycle (July 2018), the current capacity utilization rate of automobiles and parts, air transportation, paper products, petroleum and coal, plastics and rubber, metal processing and other sectors is obviously low, especially for automobiles. The current capacity utilization rate is only 64%, but it fell further in June, which also explains that the price of used cars continued to rise sharply in June, thus pushing inflation higher.</p><p>Outlook: It is expected that the upward revision will continue, but the adjustment sentiment will fall marginally; Third quarter quarter still has stamina</p><p>On the whole, since the second quarter, the market's consensus expectation for the earnings of U.S. stocks has been revised rapidly. However, the more sensitive profit adjustment sentiment (upward adjustment vs. downward adjustment of the number of analysts) began to be revised rapidly in the second quarter, but it began to gradually stabilize at the end of May, indicating that the fastest stage of upward profit revision may have passed, and the kinetic energy of upward revision has slowed down.<b>Looking ahead, although the second quarter will be a year-on-year high due to the low base, we expect that there will still be stamina in the third quarter, mainly due to the further accelerated release of service consumption in the third quarter.</b></p><p><b>This week's focus: What about the upcoming second-quarter performance period of U.S. stocks?</b></p><p>Recently, with the inflation in the United States rising beyond expectations again, the market's concerns about whether the US stock market can continue its upward trend under high inflation and high valuation and whether the Federal Reserve's policy will be tightened ahead of schedule have heated up again.</p><p>In our recent comment \"Inflation Beyond Expectations vs. Relatively Calm Market\", we mentioned that the reason why the market is relatively calm is mainly because it is precisely such a high price (for example, used cars rose by 45% year-on-year, and if used cars are deducted, the CPI in June will be basically flat year-on-year) that the market thinks it is unsustainable, but more importantly, Powell still maintained the judgment that inflation is temporary and is not in a hurry to withdraw from the policy (\"The Federal Reserve is still not in a hurry to withdraw\") at the hearing, which avoided the market from falling into violent fluctuations in the face of unexpected inflation risks.</p><p><i>After deducting used car prices, inflation in June was only basically flat compared with May</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd0162f2599c429c113f4fb6bba6cd1c\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, putting aside some short-term emotional changes, fundamental conditions are the core of judging the medium-term trend of the market.<b>What's more, since the US Treasury yields began to gradually rise in the third quarter of last year, the valuation of U.S. stocks has been basically flat, and earnings are the core variable driving market performance</b>。 Therefore,<b>From a market perspective, we will not turn pessimistic about the market as long as the earnings trend is not completely reversed, even in the face of the volatility that may result from many uncertainties</b>。</p><p>In fact, the first-quarter results greatly exceeded expectations (52% year-on-year vs. the expected 21% and 4% in the fourth quarter of 2020), driving the continuous upward revision of the performance (\"Eight Characteristics of Current U.S. Stock Earnings\"). The current market consensus expectation is that the profit growth rate is expected to reach 38% in 2021 and 11% in 2021.<b>With such strong growth, assuming other conditions remain unchanged, if you switch to earnings in 2022, then the valuation will return to pre-pandemic levels, which in turn makes the seemingly high valuation not that expensive.</b></p><p><i>From a market perspective, we will not turn pessimistic about the market as long as the earnings trend is not completely reversed, even in the face of the volatility that may result from many uncertainties</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e391be2c84b5cb240787e36fd019c74b\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>U.S. Stock Market Stocks have been basically flat since the third quarter of last year</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b7e6447d1346d3f6a1b14792ae1fb01\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>If you switch to 2022 earnings in the second half of the year (light blue), then the valuation will fall back to pre-pandemic levels in 2019 (dark blue)</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d6495bd71eced449a9a243bfec33924\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>S&P 500 2021 EPS consensus is up 38.4% y/y, market consensus is up 10.9% y/y in 2022</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a71ebb5c81492e5a9ac8e8ed4d312b7d\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>I. Overall situation: further accelerated in the second quarter; Durable goods, banks, raw materials and capital goods lead the growth rate</b></p><p>Starting from mid-July, the U.S. stock market will gradually enter the 2Q21 performance period that lasts for one month. As analyzed in \"2H21 Overseas Market Outlook: From Growth Spillover to Liquidity Backlash\", we expect that thanks to the low base last year and the continuous recovery of service consumption under the epidemic vaccination since the second quarter,<b>U.S. Stocks Earnings Growth in the Second Quarter will be the High of the Year</b>。 Specifically, referring to the Factset consensus expectation,<b>S&P 500 earnings (comparable caliber) are on track to achieve 66% year-over-year growth (vs. 52% in the first quarter), and Nasdaq Composite 89% year-over-year (vs. 94% in the first quarter).</b></p><p><i>At present, the market consensus is that the S&P 500 EPS in the second quarter is 65.5% year-on-year, and the Nasdaq Composite Index EPS is expected to be 88.9% year-on-year in the second quarter</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9dac04e5c6cd831a34297db41de0ce8\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Except for net income, S&P 500's second-quarter EBIT is expected to continue to rise compared with the first quarter, and Nasdaq slipped slightly but remained high</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9707e327be510f64aa0b22d4dfc432\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the plate level, combined with the base number in the second quarter of last year and the repair situation in the second quarter of this year, the current expectation summarized by Factset shows that,<b>Consumer durable goods, banking, raw materials, capital goods and other sectors are leading in earnings growth and are expected to achieve earnings growth of more than 100%</b>； Conversely, household goods, healthcare equipment, and utilities are expected to post negative earnings growth in the second quarter.<b>From the perspective of improvement, compared with the first quarter, the value sectors such as durable consumer goods, capital goods, banks and raw materials may improve significantly</b>While the profit growth rate of growth sectors such as retail, healthcare equipment, technology hardware, media and entertainment may decline.</p><p><i>Consumer durable goods and banks improved significantly year-on-year EPS growth in the second quarter, but household goods, healthcare and equipment are expected to lag behind</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7723e780a6d8d49765b7a8eb71c47142\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>This strength-weakness relationship is broadly consistent with the first quarter</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25d827e228fc131c8609e7eb4578ae59\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Compared with the first quarter, consumer durable goods, capital goods, banks, raw materials, etc. improved the most, while retail, diversified finance, medical and healthcare equipment, etc. declined</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/149d7a68d6d77d103d297aa57e509aba\" tg-width=\"812\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Since the second quarter, the 2021e EPS estimate of the energy sector has been adjusted the largest, and the upward adjustment of banks and raw materials has also been significant</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c733067357fdc302b884ee0852845ee0\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Focus: Supply bottleneck, capacity utilization, capital expenditure</b></p><p><b>At present, the problems faced by U.S. stock companies are not the repair of profit and demand, but the release of supply and the relief of bottlenecks between supply and demand</b>。 Therefore, in the second quarter performance period, we need to focus on the production capacity, supply chain repair and inventory of enterprises, especially the management's discussion on related issues. Judging from the monthly high-frequency data as of June, the overall capacity utilization rate of the United States is currently 75.5%, which has not been fully repaired to the level of 75.8% in January, especially for durable consumer goods, which are greatly affected by supply bottlenecks. At present, the capacity utilization rate is only 74%, which is still a distance from the 75% at the beginning of the year and before the epidemic.</p><p>In terms of industries, compared with the high point of the previous investment cycle (July 2018),<b>At present, the capacity utilization rate of automobile and parts, air transportation, paper products, petroleum and coal, plastics and rubber, metal processing and other sectors is obviously low.</b>In particular, the current capacity utilization rate of automobiles is only 64%, but it fell further in June, which also explains that used car prices continued to climb sharply in June, thus pushing inflation higher.</p><p>This can also be reflected in the capital expenditure of enterprises. As of the first quarter, the capital expenditure of American enterprises also shows a very differentiated K-type repair situation. The capital expenditure of those industries with strong demand, full production capacity and ability is repaired faster, such as e-commerce, semiconductor equipment, biopharmaceuticals and other industries; On the contrary, other industries such as energy, transportation and business services are still lagging behind.</p><p><i>Overall U.S. capacity utilization is now at 75.5% and hasn't fully repaired to January's level of 75.8%</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53b499f6322772f960a8b4380161f69e\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In particular, durable consumer goods, which are greatly affected by supply bottlenecks, currently have a capacity utilization rate of only 74%</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fac7dee32811c05608d4996ddc1b6f1e\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The capacity utilization rate of automobile and parts, air transportation, paper products, petroleum and coal, plastics and rubber, metal processing and other sectors is significantly low</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cb6dc355059b752c78fe7e9fd3e6a53\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Cars, in particular, where capacity utilization is currently only 64%, fell further in June, explaining how used car prices continued to climb sharply in June, pushing inflation higher</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c2558b7d03946063043eb4df5726ecf\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>As of the first quarter, the capital expenditure of American enterprises also showed a very differentiated K-shaped repair situation</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cf47a0b5398c71e46bf9d5517126c3a\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>III. Outlook: It is expected that the upward revision will continue, but the margin of adjustment sentiment will drop; Third quarter quarter still has stamina</b></p><p>Overall, since the second quarter, the market's consensus expectation for the earnings of U.S. stocks has been rapidly revised upward. At present, the market expects the EPS of S&P 500 to increase by 38.4% year-on-year in 2021 and 10.9% year-on-year in 2022; Nasdaq EPS increased 49.2% year-over-year in 2021 and 19.0% year-over-year in 2022. However, more sensitive earnings correction sentiment (upward vs. downward analyst number)<b>In the second quarter, the upward revision began rapidly, but it began to gradually stabilize at the end of May, indicating that the fastest stage of upward revision of profits may have passed, and the kinetic energy of upward revision slowed down.</b></p><p>Looking ahead,<b>Although the second quarter will be a year-on-year high due to the low base, we expect that the third quarter will still have stamina, mainly due to the further accelerated release of service consumption in the third quarter</b>。 At present, the market expects that the profit growth rate in the third quarter is 24%, which is one of the main reasons why we are still positive for the growth and market in the United States in the third quarter.</p><p><i>Since the second quarter, the sentiment of profit adjustment has been revised rapidly, but it has gradually stabilized at the end of May, indicating that the fastest stage of profit upward revision may have passed</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5ea5dcaf8bf692d3977f0131cf0d53c\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>We expect there will still be stamina in the third quarter, mainly due to the further accelerated release of service consumption in the third quarter</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b251d0a58c9e8ac467ae4563f1fce6\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Market Dynamics: Inflation rose above expectations in June, and unexpected growth in retail sales showed that demand remained strong; US Treasury yields Hits New Low Bulls Increase, Dollar Shorts Drop</b></p><p><b>► Asset performance: debt> stock> bulk; Interest rates hit new lows, cycle underperforms</b></p><p>The past week has undoubtedly been a week of blockbuster data and events in the United States.<b>After exceeding expectations of June inflation</b>(\"Inflation beyond expectations vs. relatively calm market\"),<b>Still dovish Powell testimony</b>(\"The Federal Reserve is still not in a hurry to quit\"),<b>The overall U.S. stock market closed slightly lower and the financial cycle underperformed after beating expectations for retail sales but missing expectations for consumer confidence index</b>At the same time, the 10-year U.S. bond interest rate dropped to a recent low and fell back to 1.29%. The real interest rate fell, but inflation expectations rose. In terms of major assets in the world, under US dollar pricing, bonds> stocks> bulk, with VIX, soybeans, Brazilian stock market and Hong Kong stocks leading the gains; Bitcoin, crude oil, UK stocks, Nasdaq led the decline.</p><p><i>In the past week, under the US dollar price, bonds> stocks> bulk, with VIX, soybeans, Brazilian stock market and Hong Kong stocks leading the gains; Bitcoin, crude oil, UK stocks, Nasdaq lead declines</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4f9bb5609b5e9bb70a8f407e0033b21\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Utilities, household goods led gains over the past week; Energy, Semiconductors, Consumer Services Lead Declines</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d4d293cd3bdb071f6792ebbed29beee\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In the past week, the 10-year U.S. bond rate fell by about 7bps from last week, with real interest rates falling by 11bps and inflation expectations rising by 4bps</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1264e9221413c868ea309fd8f4baee9\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In the past week, the sectors suffered more and cyclical damage from the epidemic were relatively underperforming, while the sectors suffered less damage from the epidemic were relatively outperforming</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f7bbaaa22ee6b5682383d99404572c2\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Sentiment Positions: Put/call Ratio Lifts, Dollar Shorts Reduce Significantly</b></p><p>In the past week, the ratio of bearish/bullish options (10-day average) in U.S. stocks has risen sharply compared with last week, and it is currently-1 time standard deviation higher than the historical average. In terms of positions, the substantial reduction of long and short positions in the US Dollar Index led to a sharp increase in net long positions; With the further decline of US Treasury yields, the long position of 10-year U.S. debt has increased significantly, and the short position of 2-year U.S. debt has decreased significantly.</p><p><i>CBOE US stock bear/bull option ratio (10-day average) has risen sharply from last week and is currently-1x standard deviation above the historical average</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6d8a29e7882613661c1e3d53d7c1533\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In the past week, the RSI points of European and American stock markets have fallen back, while Japan and emerging stock markets have risen; Oil drop back</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e24fb1dbe1900f171084acec1c0902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Over the past week, long positions in the US Dollar Index have continued to increase, short positions have decreased significantly, and net long positions have risen significantly</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125305e1d2b71dd5479e48f796d27371\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>► Capital flow: the cargo base turns into outflow, and the stock market accelerates its inflow.</b></p><p>In the past week, the inflow of bond market slowed down, the stock market accelerated, and money funds flowed out sharply; In terms of market, the stock markets of the United States and Japan accelerated their inflows, the inflows of developed Europe slowed down, and the emerging markets represented by China turned into inflows.</p><p><i>Over the past week, bond inflows have slowed, stocks have accelerated inflows, and money market funds have turned into big outflows</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9f5e742c9f21463f645f06f585f6dfe\" tg-width=\"1045\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Over the past week, U.S. and Japanese equity markets accelerated inflows, developed Europe slowed, and emerging markets, represented by China, turned into inflows</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd37fbb2a8c413cb479bf41d00fe260d\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Fundamentals and policies: Inflation exceeded expectations again in June, and retail sales grew strongly.</b></p><p><b>In June, inflation in the United States rose more than expected, and used cars and travel remained the main contributors.</b>In June, the CPI was 5.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month, both higher than the previous value and significantly exceeding market expectations. Among them, the price of used cars jumped by 10.5% month-on-month, contributing one-third of the month-on-month growth rate of CPI in June. The supply constraint caused by the lack of chips and other factors is still the main bottleneck. In addition, services related to travel demand after the epidemic recovery and opening, such as air tickets and hotels, also increased significantly. For example, the counting price in June reached 2.7% month-on-month.</p><p><b>Retail sales unexpectedly rose 0.6% month over month in June</b>, higher than the expected-0.3% and previous value (-1.7%). Looking at items,<b>Retail sales of cars and parts fell 2% month-on-month, likely weighed down by recent supply shortages and sharp price hikes</b>But department stores, groceries, electronics and household appliances rose from the previous month. However, retail spending that greatly exceeded expectations was offset by a lower-than-expected University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (80.8 in July, down from the previous value of 85.5 and not as good as expected (86.5). Meanwhile, 360,000 initial applications last week were lower than the previous value (386,000) but not as good as expected 350,000.</p><p><i>Summary of economic data over the past week</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c8becaabb300c614aae82376b1811e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>U.S. CPI exceeded expectations again in June, 5.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month, with used cars and travel-related services still the most important contributors</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be95482ad914743cc46ae03dfd61c7c7\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>U.S. June retail sales 0.6% month-over-month, higher than expectations of-0.3%</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e7d767ac03bf61753c4ea2a31c98b4\" tg-width=\"922\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In terms of items, retail sales of cars and parts fell 2% month-on-month, but department stores, grocery stores, electronics and household appliances rose from the previous month</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26688afd6f0e8018af6ab4646f83a73\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The Fed's average daily reverse repo usage remained high over the past week, exceeding $800 billion</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc2a4bf65f4512b115ac6ba45da7533b\" tg-width=\"1077\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The current balance sheet of the Federal Reserve is about $8.20 trillion, up significantly from last week</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90a6980f71674854b48b80fd7945e5b2\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Market Valuation: Valuations have pulled back slightly.</b></p><p>With the continuous decline of the 10-year US bond interest rate last week, the current static P/E of S&P 500 index 27.7 times is basically at a reasonable level (~27.9 times) that can be supported by growth (ISM manufacturing PMI =60.6 in June) and liquidity (10-year US bond interest rate 1.36%). The valuation levels of stock markets in major global markets, including Europe, Japan and emerging markets, have all declined, but they are at relatively high levels in history.</p><p><i>The current 12-month dynamic P/E of the S&P 500 is down slightly to 21.3 times, more than one standard deviation upward of its mean since 1990</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/375db13e71641a7072dc3fad087b017d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The current 27.7 times static P/E of the S&P 500 is basically at a reasonable level that growth and liquidity can support (~27.9 times)</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593bae75a6b6c4dbec11a5708e95d06b\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/318dced6c8505427ba4c5a73eb4a7981","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151231853","content_text":"摘要\n近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行，市场对高通胀高估值下的美股能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。不过，抛开短期一些情绪变化，基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心。从市场角度，即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动，但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转，我们就不会对市场转为悲观。\n整体情况：二季度增长进一步加速；耐用品、银行、原材料、资本品增速领先。\n参考Factset一致预期，标普500盈利（可比口径）有望实现66%的同比增长（vs. 一季度52%），纳斯达克综指同比89%（vs. 一季度94%）。板块层面，结合去年二季度的基数以及今年二季度的修复情况，当前Factset汇总的预期显示，耐用消费品、银行、原材料、资本品等板块的盈利增速领先，有望实现超过100%的盈利增长；相反，家庭用品、医疗保健设备以及公用事业预计二季度盈利增速为负。\n关注焦点：供应瓶颈与产能利用率、资本开支\n当前美股企业所面临的问题已经不在于盈利和需求的修复，更多在于供给的释放和供需瓶颈的缓解。因此，二季度业绩期，我们需要重点关注企业产能、供应链修复、以及库存的情况，特别是管理层对于相关问题的讨论。分行业来看，相比上一轮投资周期的高点（2018年7月），当前汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率都明显偏低，特别是汽车，当前产能利用率仅为64%，6月份反而还进一步回落，这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高。\n前景展望：预期继续上修，但调整情绪边际回落；三季度环比仍有后劲\n整体看，二季度以来市场对美股盈利一致预期快速上修，不过，更为敏感的盈利调整情绪（上调vs.下调分析师数）二季度开始快速上修，但5月末开始逐步企稳，预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去，上修动能减缓。往前看，虽然二季度得益于低基数将是同比高点，但我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲，主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放。\n本周焦点：即将开始的美股二季度业绩期如何？\n近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行，市场对于高通胀高估值下的美股市场能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。\n我们在近期的点评《大超预期的通胀 vs.相对淡定的市场》中提到，市场之所以表现的相对淡定主要是由于恰恰是如此高的价格（例如二手车同比大涨45%，如果扣掉二手车的话6月CPI同比将基本持平）让市场认为是无法持续的，但更重要的是鲍威尔在听证会上依然维持通胀是暂时性且不急于政策退出的判断（《美联储依然不急于退出》），这避免了让市场在面对超预期的通胀风险下陷入剧烈波动。\n扣除掉二手车价格后，6月通胀同比较5月仅基本持平\n\n不过，抛开短期一些情绪上的变化，基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心，更何况去年三季度美债利率开始逐步上行以来，美股估值就基本持平，而盈利是推动市场表现的核心变量。因此，从市场角度，即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动，但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转，我们就不会对市场转为悲观。\n实际上，一季度业绩大超预期（同比52% vs. 预期的21%和2020年四季度4%），推动业绩持续上修（《当前美股盈利的八个特征》），当前市场一致预期预计2021年盈利增速有望达到38%，2021年为11%，在这样一个强劲增长下，假设其他条件不变，如果切换到2022年盈利，那么估值将重新回到疫情前水平，进而使得看似很高的估值并没有那么贵。\n从市场角度，即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动，但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转，我们就不会对市场转为悲观\n\n美股市场股市从去年三季度以来基本持平\n\n下半年如果切换到2022年盈利（浅蓝色），那么估值将回落至2019年疫情前水平（深蓝色）\n\n标普500指数2021年EPS一致预期同比增长38.4%，市场一致预期2022年同比增长10.9%\n\n一、整体情况：二季度进一步加速；耐用品、银行、原材料、资本品增速领先\n7月中旬开始，美股市场将逐步进入持续一个月的2Q21业绩期。如我们在《2H21海外市场展望：从增长外溢到流动性反噬》中分析，我们预计得益于去年低基数以及二季度以来疫情接种下服务性消费的持续修复，美股二季度盈利增速将是年内高点。具体来看，参考Factset一致预期，标普500盈利（可比口径）有望实现66%的同比增长（vs. 一季度52%），纳斯达克综指同比89%（vs. 一季度94%）。\n目前市场共识预计标普500二季度EPS同比65.5%，纳斯达克综指EPS预计二季度同比88.9%\n\n除净利润外，标普500二季度EBIT预计较一季度继续抬升，纳斯达克略有下滑，但仍处高位\n\n板块层面，结合去年二季度的基数以及今年二季度的修复情况，当前Factset汇总的预期显示，耐用消费品、银行、原材料、资本品等板块的盈利增速领先，有望实现超过100%的盈利增长；相反，家庭用品、医疗保健设备以及公用事业预计二季度盈利增速为负。从改善幅度来看，相比一季度，耐用消费品、资本品、银行及原材料等价值板块或将改善明显，而零售、医疗保健设备、科技硬件、媒体娱乐等成长板块盈利增速或有所回落。\n耐用消费品、银行二季度EPS同比增速改善明显，但家庭用品、医疗保健与设备预计落后\n\n这一强弱关系与一季度的情形大体一致\n\n对比一季度，耐用消费品、资本品、银行、原材料等改善幅度最大，零售、多元金融、医疗保健设备等下滑\n\n二季度以来，能源板块2021e EPS预期调整幅度最大，银行、原材料等上调幅度同样显著\n\n二、关注焦点：供应瓶颈与产能利用率、资本开支\n当前美股企业所面临的问题已经不在于盈利和需求的修复，更多在于供给的释放和供需瓶颈的缓解。因此，二季度业绩期，我们需要重点关注企业产能、供应链修复、以及库存的情况，特别是管理层对于相关问题的讨论。从截至6月的月度高频数据来看，美国整体产能利用率目前为75.5%，还没有完全修复至1月75.8%的水平，尤其是受供应瓶颈影响较大的耐用消费品，目前产能利用率仅为74%，距离年初和疫情前的75%都仍有距离。\n分行业来看，相比上一轮投资周期的高点（2018年7月），当前汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率都明显偏低，特别是汽车，当前产能利用率仅为64%，6月份反而还进一步回落，这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高。\n这一点从企业的资本开支情况也可以得到体现，从截止一季度的情况看，美国企业的资本开支也呈现非常分化的K型修复局面，那些需求旺盛、产能已经打满且有能力的行业资本开支修复更快，例如电商、半导体设备、生物制药等行业；相反其他行业如能源、交运、商业服务等依然落后。\n美国整体产能利用率目前为75.5%，还没有完全修复至1月75.8%的水平\n\n 尤其是受供应瓶颈影响较大的耐用消费品，目前产能利用率仅为74%\n\n汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率明显偏低\n\n特别是汽车，当前产能利用率仅为64%，6月份反而还进一步回落，这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高\n\n截止一季度的情况看，美国企业的资本开支也呈现非常分化的K型修复局面\n\n三、前景展望：预期继续上修，但调整情绪边际回落；三季度环比仍有后劲\n整体来看，二季度以来市场对于美股盈利的一致预期快速上修，目前，市场预计标普5002021年EPS同比增长38.4%，2022年EPS同比增长10.9%；纳斯达克2021年EPS同比增长49.2%，2022年EPS同比上升19.0%。不过，更为敏感的盈利调整情绪（上调 vs.下调分析师数）二季度开始快速上修，但5月末开始逐步企稳，预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去，上修动能减缓。\n往前看，虽然二季度得益于低基数将是同比高点，但我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲，主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放。目前市场预期预计三季度盈利增速24%，这也是我们对于三季度美国增长和市场依然维持积极的主要原因之一。\n二季度以来，盈利调整情绪快速上修，但5月末逐步企稳，预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去\n\n我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲，主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放\n\n市场动态：6月通胀超预期上行，零售销售意外增长显示需求依然强劲；美债利率再创新低多头增加，美元空头大降\n►资产表现：债>股>大宗；利率再创新低，周期跑输\n过去一周毫无疑问是美国的重磅数据和事件周。在经历了超预期的6月通胀（《大超预期的通胀 vs.相对淡定的市场》）、依然鸽派的鲍威尔证词（《美联储依然不急于退出》）、超预期的零售销售但不及预期的消费者信心指数后，美股市场整体小幅收跌，金融周期跑输，同时10年美债利率再降近期新低并回落至1.29%，实际利率回落，但通胀预期抬升。全球主要资产来看，美元计价下，债>股>大宗，VIX、大豆、巴西股市、港股领涨；比特币、原油、英国股市、纳斯达克领跌。\n过去一周，美元计价下，债>股>大宗，VIX、大豆、巴西股市、港股领涨；比特币、原油、英国股市、纳斯达克领跌\n\n过去一周，公用事业、家庭用品领涨；能源、半导体、消费者服务领跌\n\n过去一周，10年美债利率较上周回落约7bps，其中实际利率回落11bps，通胀预期上升4bps\n\n过去一周，疫情受损多及周期板块相对跑输，疫情受损少板块相对跑赢\n\n►情绪仓位：Put/call比例抬升，美元空头大幅减少\n过去一周，美股看空/看多期权比例（10天平均）较上周大幅抬升，目前高于历史均值-1倍标准差。仓位方面，美元指数多头空头仓位大幅减少导致净多头大幅抬升；伴随美债利率的进一步回落，10年美债多头仓位大幅增加，2年美债空头仓位大幅减少。\nCBOE美股看空/看多期权比例（10天平均）较上周大幅抬升，目前高于历史均值-1倍标准差\n\n过去一周，欧美股市RSI点位均回落，日本及新兴抬升；布油回落\n\n过去一周，美元指数多头仓位继续增加，空头仓位大幅减少，净多头大幅抬升\n\n►资金流向：货基转为流出，股市加速流入。\n过去一周，债市流入放缓，股市加速流入，货币基金大幅流出；分市场看，美国及日本股市加速流入，发达欧洲流入放缓，以中国为代表的新兴市场转为流入。\n过去一周，债市流入放缓，股市加速流入，货币市场基金转为大幅流出\n\n过去一周，美国及日本股市加速流入，发达欧洲流入放缓，以中国为代表的新兴市场转为流入\n\n►基本面与政策：6月通胀再超预期，零售强势增长。\n6月美国通胀超预期上行，二手车和出行相关仍是主要贡献。6月CPI同比5.4%环比0.9%，均高于前值且大幅超出市场预期。其中，二手车价格环比跳升10.5%，贡献了6月CPI环比增速的三分之一，缺少芯片等因素导致的供给受限依然是主要瓶颈。此外，机票、酒店等与疫情修复开放后的出行需求相关的服务也涨幅明显，例如6月计票价格环比达2.7%。\n6月零售销售环比意外增长0.6%，高于预期的-0.3%和前值（-1.7%）。分项看，汽车与零部件零售销售环比下降2%，可能受近期供应紧缺和价格大涨拖累，但百货商店、杂货、电子和家用电器等较前月抬升。不过大超预期的零售消费被低于预期的密歇根大学消费者信心指数所抵消（7月80.8，低于前值85.5并不及预期（86.5）。与此同时，上周首申人数36.0万人，低于前值（38.6万人）但不及预期的35.0万人。\n过去一周经济数据总结\n\n美国6月CPI再超预期，同比5.4%环比0.9%，二手车和出行相关服务依然是最主要贡献\n\n美国6月零售销售环比 0.6%，高于预期的-0.3%\n\n分项看，汽车与零部件零售销售环比下降2%，但百货商店、杂货店、电子和家用电器等较前月抬升\n\n过去一周，美联储平均日度逆回购使用量仍处高位，超8000亿美元\n\n 美联储资产负债表目前规模约8.20万亿美元，较上周抬升明显\n\n►市场估值：估值略有回落。\n伴随10年美债利率上周的持续回落，当前标普500指数27.7倍静态P/E基本处于增长（6月ISM制造业PMI=60.6）和流动性（10年美债利率1.36%）能够支撑的合理水平（~27.9倍）。包括欧洲、日本、新兴在内的全球主要市场股市的估值水平均有回落，但处于历史相对高位。\n当前标普500指数12个月动态P/E微降至21.3倍，超过1990年以来均值向上一倍标准差\n\n当前标普500的27.7倍静态P/E基本处于增长和流动性能够支撑的合理水平（~27.9倍）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831860233,"gmtCreate":1629300692222,"gmtModify":1676529997711,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571552996196002","idStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831860233","repostId":"1178125004","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5278,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833807914,"gmtCreate":1629213502038,"gmtModify":1676529969550,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571552996196002","idStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Song song to jurong","listText":"Song song to jurong","text":"Song song to jurong","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/833807914","repostId":"1123143185","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123143185","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629197708,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123143185?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-17 18:55","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"China Foundation Association: Fund managers are not allowed to transfer benefits between different asset portfolios","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123143185","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月17日讯，中基协发布《公开募集证券投资基金管理人及从业人员职业操守和道德规范指南》，自发布之日起实施。其中提出，基金管理人应当建立、健全关联交易、公平交易等各项制度，制定并完善关联方识别、关联交易","content":"<p>On August 17th, China Foundation Association issued the Guide to Professional Ethics and Ethics for Managers and Practitioners of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds, which will be implemented from the date of publication. It is proposed that the fund manager should establish and improve various systems such as related party transactions and fair transactions, formulate and improve the standards and procedures for related party identification, price determination of related party transactions and other matters, and shall not transfer benefits to third parties or between different asset portfolios. The fund manager shall treat the different asset portfolios under management fairly, and ensure that different asset portfolios get equal investment and trading opportunities through centralized trading, fair trading and other systems.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China Foundation Association: Fund managers are not allowed to transfer benefits between different asset portfolios</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina Foundation Association: Fund managers are not allowed to transfer benefits between different asset portfolios\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-17 18:55</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On August 17th, China Foundation Association issued the Guide to Professional Ethics and Ethics for Managers and Practitioners of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds, which will be implemented from the date of publication. It is proposed that the fund manager should establish and improve various systems such as related party transactions and fair transactions, formulate and improve the standards and procedures for related party identification, price determination of related party transactions and other matters, and shall not transfer benefits to third parties or between different asset portfolios. The fund manager shall treat the different asset portfolios under management fairly, and ensure that different asset portfolios get equal investment and trading opportunities through centralized trading, fair trading and other systems.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2dd670f9557c66480c84fc5e4bd415","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123143185","content_text":"8月17日讯，中基协发布《公开募集证券投资基金管理人及从业人员职业操守和道德规范指南》，自发布之日起实施。其中提出，基金管理人应当建立、健全关联交易、公平交易等各项制度，制定并完善关联方识别、关联交易价格确定等事项的标准和流程，不得向第三方输送利益，不得在不同资产组合之间输送利益。基金管理人应当公平对待所管理的不同资产组合，通过集中交易、公平交易等制度，确保不同资产组合获得平等的投资、交易机会。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4098,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179150935,"gmtCreate":1626495402127,"gmtModify":1703761141838,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571552996196002","idStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/179150935","repostId":"1130243635","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1107,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173979895,"gmtCreate":1626608863817,"gmtModify":1703762287213,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571552996196002","idStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"No","listText":"No","text":"No","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173979895","repostId":"1172207687","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891948208,"gmtCreate":1628323501004,"gmtModify":1703505090143,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571552996196002","idStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sin","listText":"Sin","text":"Sin","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/891948208","repostId":"1136593672","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3255,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":804922385,"gmtCreate":1627917273447,"gmtModify":1703497915673,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571552996196002","idStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"$amc$&nbsp;","listText":"$amc$&nbsp;","text":"$amc$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/804922385","repostId":"1133915369","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133915369","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627914060,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133915369?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-02 22:21","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Xinhua News Agency reporter \"undercover\" Naixue saw and heard: cockroaches don't care, labels change at will","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133915369","media":"新华社","summary":"如果只顾追求新奇营销和利润获取，而不能保证食品质量安全，终将无法经受时间考验。","content":"<p><div>Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, August 2 (Reporter Feng Songling, Zhao Hongyu) The summer holiday has arrived, and as a sought-after milk tea among young people, it will usher in the peak sales season. However, in the first half of this year, the market supervision department of Shanghai made a surprise inspection of milk tea shops of many brands, such as 1 point, Chabaidao, 7 points sweet, coco and Xiong Ji, and found that the phenomena of unclear food labels, uncovered food in refrigerators, substandard hygiene in operation areas, mixed items and food were widespread, which aroused social concern. What's the situation in Beijing? Recently, the reporter randomly applied for a job, \"undercover\" online celebrity milk tea shop \"Naixue's Tea\", and found that many of its branches also had cockroaches crawling...</p><p><a href=\"http://m.xinhuanet.com/2021-08/02/c_1127723129.htm\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"XHS1","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Xinhua News Agency reporter \"undercover\" Naixue saw and heard: cockroaches don't care, labels change at will</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXinhua News Agency reporter \"undercover\" Naixue saw and heard: cockroaches don't care, labels change at will\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新华社</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-02 22:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, August 2 (Reporter Feng Songling, Zhao Hongyu) The summer holiday has arrived, and as a sought-after milk tea among young people, it will usher in the peak sales season. However, in the first half of this year, the market supervision department of Shanghai made a surprise inspection of milk tea shops of many brands, such as 1 point, Chabaidao, 7 points sweet, coco and Xiong Ji, and found that the phenomena of unclear food labels, uncovered food in refrigerators, substandard hygiene in operation areas, mixed items and food were widespread, which aroused social concern. What's the situation in Beijing? Recently, the reporter randomly applied for a job, \"undercover\" online celebrity milk tea shop \"Naixue's Tea\", and found that many of its branches also had cockroaches crawling...</p><p><a href=\"http://m.xinhuanet.com/2021-08/02/c_1127723129.htm\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://m.xinhuanet.com/2021-08/02/c_1127723129.htm\">新华社</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/969153dc5674369c3b376e33d2fc3976","relate_stocks":{"02150":"奈雪的茶"},"source_url":"http://m.xinhuanet.com/2021-08/02/c_1127723129.htm","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133915369","content_text":"新华社北京8月2日电（记者冯松龄、赵鸿宇）暑期已至，作为深受年轻人追捧的奶茶，将迎来销售旺季。\n但上海市市场监管部门今年上半年对1点点、茶百道、7分甜、都可（coco）、熊姬等多个品牌奶茶店突击检查发现，食品标签不明确、冰箱内食物不加盖、操作区卫生不达标、物品与食品混放等现象普遍存在，引发社会关注。\n北京情况如何？近日，记者通过随机应聘，“卧底”网红奶茶店“奈雪的茶”，发现其多家分店也存在蟑螂乱爬、水果腐烂、抹布不洗、标签不实等问题。\n——蟑螂“不用管”，处理欠规范。\n前不久，记者应聘进入“奈雪的茶”北京西单大悦城店，成为一名实习茶饮师，负责面包区“上包”工作，即把后厨做好的面包从货架摆放到橱窗，并帮助顾客选购面包。\n上岗当天，记者看见一只指甲盖大小的蟑螂，从面包展柜底部爬向面包制作间。记者马上报告同组值班店员，但得到“没事，不用管它”的答复。\n“水吧和面包房有蟑螂”在许多店员看来十分“正常”。入职第二天，一些店员告诉记者，虽然店里要求很高，但“忙起来就顾不上那么多了”。\n——腐烂水果继续用，产品标签随意换。\n在“奈雪的茶”长安商场店，一些发黑的芒果摆放在后厨的桌子上，员工被提醒要去掉“黑色”部分继续使用，“不要浪费，稍处理一下即可”。\n记者看到，一些标签纸等杂物不小心掉进芒果泥里，杂物被挑拣出来后芒果泥继续使用。\n一款“软欧包魔法棒”系列产品，按要求应在4小时内售完。但一些员工会将未售完的产品及时更改时间标签再卖。\n奈雪饮品“霸气柠檬油柑”保质期只有一天。但在“奈雪的茶”北京西单大悦城店，生产标签为手工输入。因操作失误，出现过工作人员错将当天该品生产日期打成前一天的情况。直到晚上闭店时，店长才发现。工作人员在群中私下处理了此事，相关情况并未对消费者公示，也未采取任何补救措施。\n——手套不戴，抹布不洗。\n记者在工作中看到，员工用同一个手套，同时处理不同的食物，且几乎从不更换。遇到客流高峰期，店长等其他工作人员会直接到后厨上手操作，很多时候不戴手套直接处理食材。\n《中华人民共和国食品安全法》规定：“餐具、饮具和盛放直接入口食品的容器，使用前应当洗净、消毒，炊具、用具用后应当洗净，保持清洁。”\n记者在被安排“擦盘子”期间，多次询问店员一块抹布擦几十个盘子是否需清洗抹布，得到“完全不用”的答复。\n奶茶店要求擦拭桌面的毛巾4小时必须更换，每次更换后要打上时间标签。但记者在面包展区仅2天，就遇到了2次没有及时更换的情况。\n——日常卫生很随意，检查一来就重视。\n暗访现场，记者看到，不少员工直接踩着清洗食材的桌面，从较高橱柜中取食材，且未做任何清洁处理。\n但每次上级来检查时，店员们就会临时整理地面卫生，对平日较为繁杂的后厨进行系统清理，紧急清洗各种机器。\n“奈茶的雪”并非个案。北京市市场监管局此前在突击检查中发现，部分茶饮店使用过期的、不新鲜或“三无”物料等问题，并责令其整改。\n今年6月，南京市玄武区市场监管局公布的专项抽检结果显示，喜茶在微生物、糖类方面存在风险。而在2018年、2019年喜茶也均出现喝出“异物”等问题。\n为严查严管各种网红奶茶店不合格现象，国家市场监管总局在2018年6月12日发布《关于加强现制现售奶茶果蔬汁监督管理的通知》，提出了对网红饮品的具体管理、监督要求。\n中国农业大学食品学院副教授朱毅认为，奶茶店遍地，同质化严重，竞争激烈加上原材料涨价，同时外卖形态占比增加，不少消费者并没机会看实体店面，这就造成了店家忙于挣钱，疏于管理，应付监管，卫生成了共性问题。\n“如果只顾追求新奇营销和利润获取，而不能保证食品质量安全，终将无法经受时间的考验。”中国消费者权益保护法学研究会副秘书长陈音江认为，奶茶经营者除了打造“IP”，应更多把精力和成本花在产品质量把关上，为消费者提供安全放心的产品，才能越走越远。（参与采写：孙雨晨、简子奇）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02150":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3663,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801453050,"gmtCreate":1627529817770,"gmtModify":1703491783483,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571552996196002","idStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Singapore airline","listText":"Singapore airline","text":"Singapore airline","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801453050","repostId":"1195922259","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809410569,"gmtCreate":1627386333851,"gmtModify":1703488873060,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571552996196002","idStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Go","listText":"Go","text":"Go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809410569","repostId":"1120859674","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120859674","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"秦朔朋友圈是由中国著名媒体人、财经观察家秦朔牵头创立的一个新媒体与专业服务品牌，包括微信公众号、微博、视频节目、音频节目等。内容聚焦于经济、金融和商业领域，关注重点为全球和中国财经商业热点、企业家精神、创新与发明创造、商业文明探索等。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"秦朔朋友圈","id":"60","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e"},"pubTimestamp":1627352185,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120859674?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-27 10:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Chinese Concept Stocks Exit from the US Market, Could This Happen?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120859674","media":"秦朔朋友圈","summary":"谁都不希望坏事发生，但如果发生，也不至于措手不及。","content":"<p>Text/Jia Ming</p><p>On July 23rd, a document issued by the CPC Central Office entitled \"Opinions on Further Reducing the Burden of Homework and Off-campus Training for Students in Compulsory Education\" circulated on the Internet. The \"Opinions\" include measures such as \"capitalization\" operation of education and training institutions, and all discipline training institutions are prohibited from listing for financing. Overseas listed education stocks have fallen in response. For example, the share price of New Oriental on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was once \"halved\" (New Oriental S, closed down 40.61% on the 23rd and 47.02% on the 26th; New Oriental Online closed down 28.07% and 33.45% on the 23rd and 26th respectively; New Oriental closed down 54.22% on the 23rd in the US stock market). On the 23rd, Gaotu fell 63.26% in the US stock market, and TAL fell more than 70%.</p><p>The official has officially announced the document on the evening of July 24th, and many media have forwarded it in full. Interested readers can look for it.</p><p>Today's article does not analyze Circular No.40 of the Central Office, but wants to explore two issues.</p><p>First, why do so many Chinese companies choose to go public in the United States?</p><p>Second, considering Sino-US relations, Ruixing's fraud, Didi's removal from the shelves and other events, what is the future fate of these Chinese stocks listed overseas?</p><p><b>Main reasons</b></p><p>Chinese companies are more enthusiastic about listing on US stock exchanges than any other non-US company, even after the apparent chill in US-China relations.</p><p>In 2019, 32 companies went public in the United States, compared to 34 in 2020, and in the first half of 2021, 37 companies completed listing in the United States. According to wind data, as of July 2021, there were 286 Chinese companies listed in the United States — including those registered in offshore centers such as Hong Kong, China or the Cayman Islands, but most of their revenue and profits came from mainland China — in fact, most Chinese companies listed in the United States basically adopted this listing method.</p><p>Since 2018, while suppressing Chinese technology companies, the United States has raised its audit requirements for Chinese companies listed in the United States. The overall environment for Chinese companies to go public in the United States is not good, so why do Chinese companies still resolutely choose to go public in the United States?</p><p>Several well-known reasons are;</p><p>First, the capital market construction in the United States is relatively early, and the financing system and laws and regulations are relatively more mature and perfect. From the perspective of the overall financing environment, the United States is generally optimistic about Internet companies and high-tech companies. If the same stock is listed in the United States, it is relatively easy to obtain a higher valuation and raise more funds.</p><p>Second, and more importantly, the US capital market adopts a registration system, and there is no profit threshold for companies to be listed. As long as your company's business grows rapidly and occupies a large market share, it can go public even if it loses money. China adopts the audit system, and the necessary condition for applying for A-share listing is to make profits for three consecutive years.</p><p>Internet businesses are growing fast, so they are always very short of money. Some Internet companies, perhaps only a few years after their establishment, have become unicorns with a valuation of more than one billion. At this time, facing the pressure of investors to realize cash and further development, they have to prepare to go public for large-scale fundraising. However, most companies may have just begun to make profits at this time, or even not yet, so they can't meet the conditions of making profits for three consecutive years, and they can't go public for financing in the A-share market. If you wait for two or three years before going public to raise funds, you may not only miss the best development opportunity, but also fail to raise funds, and it is unknown whether the enterprise can survive. Therefore, we can only go abroad.</p><p>Third, the length of China's listing approval cycle is uncertain. When the listing approval is suspended and the company wants to go public, the whole process may take three or four years. Time is money, and many enterprises can't afford to wait.</p><p>The above three reasons, especially the second and third, should be the two main reasons for Chinese companies to go public in the United States. But beyond that, here are a few reasons that shouldn't be overlooked.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24b35bd20e43d6773e8057d5090c82e8\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Reason of origin</b></p><p>We often say now that Chinese Internet companies are doing very well. We usually call around 2000 the first year of China's Internet. But we can't forget that in the early days of the development of the Internet, few people could understand this format, so it was impossible for these enterprises to get bank loans.</p><p>In fact, it is difficult to get bank loans not only in the initial stage of the Internet, but also in the initial stage of all enterprises. Because of the strict loan approval procedures and natural risk aversion, commercial banks would rather earn less loan interest than lend money to stable enterprises.</p><p>Banks are not institutions that invest in start-ups. Investing in start-ups should be something that angel investors and venture capital institutions do. At that time, there was no venture capital (VC) and private equity (PE) in China. These Internet companies can't find money in China, but they need money for development. What should they do? Only overseas capital can be introduced.</p><p>You know, in the early days of our reform and opening up, we also exchanged domestic markets for overseas capital and technology. Therefore, as Deng Gong said, it doesn't matter if it is a black cat or a white cat, if it can catch mice, it is a good cat. Capital is neutral, regardless of whether it is good or bad. If only geography is used as the classification basis, it is certainly possible. But if you want to make a value judgment, it is more important to look at the specific things that these capitals are used for, rather than the origins of these capitals.</p><p>Therefore, many Internet giants in China (in order to avoid unnecessary trouble, I won't give examples here) were Sino-foreign joint ventures at the beginning of their establishment. This begs another question: the question of the legitimacy of the VIE architecture.</p><p>Variable Interest Entity Structure, referred to as VIE Structure, usually referred to as \"Agreement Control\", refers to a listed Entity registered overseas by a proposed listed company, which is separated from the mainland business operating Entity, and the overseas listed Entity controls the domestic business operating Entity through an agreement, and transfers its income and profits to the overseas company. VIE architecture has derived many different forms, but the essence is the same, so it will not be expanded here.</p><p>Because China's laws have strict restrictions on the industry access of overseas funds in \"information transmission, software and information technology services\", overseas capital is not allowed to directly invest in telecommunications and Internet-related enterprises. Of course, companies in these industries are not allowed to directly raise funds or go public overseas. Therefore, these enterprises adopt VIE architecture to bypass supervision.</p><p>Of course, regulation knows this form. The reason why it is not completely forbidden is that on the one hand, this structure is not \"obviously illegal\", and on the other hand, it is certainly a kind of regulatory wisdom.</p><p>However, if this kind of enterprise is listed in China, it still has to strictly follow the regulatory requirements of listing. Then the legality of this VIE structure becomes a problem, so it can't be listed directly in China.</p><p>This means that the roots of some Internet companies are crooked from the day they were born. If the root is not crooked, you can't survive, and if you survive, you will leave a bad background-\"lack of money-introduce foreign capital-become a joint venture-adopt a VIE structure-the legality of domestic listing is problematic-overseas listing\".</p><p>It is much better now. China's multi-level capital market construction is becoming more and more perfect, and there are more RMB venture capital and private placement. The problem of not finding money in China has been greatly alleviated.</p><p>Wang Xiaobo said in \"The Silent Majority\" that it is too easy to make value judgments. If we are a male rabbit, we naturally know that the big bad wolf is bad and the female rabbit is good. But the rabbit doesn't know how to memorize the multiplication table. Figuring out the above background is a bit like a multiplication table. No matter what kind of value evaluation we make on Internet companies going public overseas-how to evaluate it is our freedom-at least our judgment is based on the complete ins and outs of things.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f4d1b82e56c3a630026ec35cf9663d6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Other reasons</b></p><p>There are two other reasons, respectively, the free circulation of capital and the pursuit of different rights of the same share.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, because many enterprises are funded by international private equity funds and venture capital companies, and China implements foreign exchange control and lists at home, it will be troublesome for venture capital funds to make profits and have exchange risks, so they also have the incentive to encourage business owners to list abroad. Some business owners have the ambition of being multinational enterprises and are willing to go public in the United States, which is not only conducive to expanding the popularity of enterprises, but also conducive to the global layout of fund-raising and assets of enterprises, achieving multiple goals with one stone.</p><p>To be more verbose, private equity and venture capital eat the bowl of rice with high risk and high return. As long as they can make money in compliance with the law, it can't be said that there is anything wrong with people making a profit and exiting after the company goes public. Of course, if you violate the law and discipline, you must be held accountable according to law.</p><p>Some people may ask that when listed in Hong Kong, capital can also flow freely. Listed company entrepreneurs and early investors can easily convert Hong Kong dollars raised by listing into US dollars or any other currency. This leads to another reason, \"the same shares have the same rights\" and \"the same shares have different rights\".</p><p>Companies listed in mainland China should strictly abide by the regulations of the same shares and the same rights, that is, how many shares you own in the company will have as many voting rights when voting for major events. This is the reason why many companies don't want to go public, and are afraid that they will not own many shares after listing, which will lead to the company founders being speechless on the board of directors or even being kicked out. This is also the reason for the previously popular \"barbarian\" malicious takeovers, as long as someone else holds more shares than you, even if you are the founder, you will be kicked out.</p><p>Before 2018, listing in Hong Kong was also a requirement of the same shares and rights. In 2018, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange introduced a reform that allows technology companies and companies in the life sciences to adopt an American-style structure of same shares with different rights. Since then, more and more Chinese companies have chosen to list in Hong Kong, or in both Hong Kong, China and New York, USA.</p><p>Not that equal shares and equal rights are bad. Everything has pros and cons. Founders with the same shares and rights are required to be cautious about listing, because they may be overlooked or even kicked out of the decision-making level after listing. However, cautious listing may slow down the development of enterprises and miss the golden development period.</p><p>Going public in the United States provides an option of different rights for the same shares, which means that even if you hold less than 50% of the equity of the company, even if you only hold 10% or even less, you can still maintain control of the company. Although it is convenient for enterprises to go public and raise funds, it can easily lead to the problem of \"insider control\". As the actual controller of an enterprise is not the largest shareholder, when there is a conflict between the interests of shareholders and the interests of operators, the actual controller will easily pretend to be public for personal gain, enrich his own pockets, or adopt some risky business behaviors. In some countries, identical rights are considered to be one of the root causes of corporate governance problems.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c43b7c0037505392758b59f3788cc488\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Crisis of trust</b></p><p>The previous article basically explains why Chinese enterprises are more willing to go public in the United States. There are various reasons, including regulatory system and business operation. Generally speaking, it is a very normal business behavior of seeking advantages and avoiding disadvantages.</p><p>However, after the escalation of the Sino-US trade conflict, the United States has successively sanctioned Chinese companies, some of which are Chinese companies listed in the United States. This increases the risk of listing in the United States. Even if some companies that have already listed are not sanctioned, the risks brought by changes in international relations between the two countries are increasing. In 2020, Luckin's financial fraud aggravated the trust crisis of Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>The Trump administration took the opportunity to sign the Foreign Company Accountability Act before the end of its term, threatening to delist Chinese listed companies from American stock exchanges if China fails to allow the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) to obtain audit working papers for three consecutive years.</p><p>On June 22, 2021, the U.S. Senate passed another proposal, proposing that the delisting time could be advanced by one year.</p><p>The immediate reason for the U.S. threatening to delist Chinese companies is to protect U.S. investors from losses caused by accounting fraud similar to that of Luckin last year. To be honest, this actually seems quite reasonable. Financial fraud is a crime. Not only the United States, but we believe that the capital market of any country should crack down on financial fraud.</p><p>But here are a few questions.</p><p>First, China and the United States have been negotiating on the issue of audit papers, but why are they suddenly turning their faces now?</p><p>In 2009, China issued a law requiring enterprises to \"store the working papers and other files formed by securities companies and securities service institutions that provide related securities services in China in the process of issuing and listing securities overseas\".</p><p>In 2013, PCAOB of China and the United States signed a memorandum of understanding on cooperation, and provided PCAOB with audit working papers of four enterprises.</p><p>From 2016 to 2019, the regulatory authorities of both sides have also made some cooperative attempts on how to effectively inspect. When the relationship is good, there is business and quantity, but when the relationship is bad, it is a bit of turning your face and denying people.</p><p>Second, whether providing accounting papers is an effective form of combating financial fraud.</p><p>For example, in 2002, the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 were greatly revised in response to the financial fraud incident of Enron Company, forming the Public Company Accounting Reform and Investor Protection Act of 2002, or Sarbanes-Oxley Act for short, which made many new provisions in corporate governance, Accounting professional supervision and securities market supervision. In fact, this is conducive to protecting both listed companies and investors, which is a good thing.</p><p>But the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board established after the Sarbanes-Oxley Act can already review the audit papers of listed companies, but then there are accounting problems with WorldCom, Southern Health Care, Freddie Mac, AIG and Lehman Brothers. However, most serious accounting fraud incidents are often found by professional short-selling organizations by using \"private unannounced visits\" to investigate the company's business flow on the spot, and audit companies will not use these means.</p><p>The U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) may not necessarily be able to identify these financial frauds by auditing working papers. In other words, audit papers may help to combat financial fraud, but they are not an essential way, and they are not always 100 percent effective.</p><p>Third, the important target of the Foreign Company Accountability Act is Chinese stock companies, but it is not the first day that the United States knows that Chinese listed companies adopt VIE structure. If the United States thinks that there is a problem with the VIE structure, it can directly ban the listing of Chinese stocks.</p><p>When the relationship between the two countries is friendly, the audit paper is not a very important issue. The two countries can negotiate and solve it, and cooperate in supervision because of mutual trust. Now this mutual trust is gone.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e2b71cb10ca93f5741a9e9b49df382\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Prepare for a rainy day</b></p><p>We hope that Sino-US relations can return to friendship in the new competitive relationship. But if the gap between the two countries gets wider and wider, then Chinese companies listed in the United States really need to be prepared.</p><p>For China and the United States, the delisting of Chinese companies from the U.S. market does not seem to be an unbearable price.</p><p>As far as the United States is concerned, although the volatility of Chinese stocks is relatively large, the overall performance of Chinese stocks is better than that of most American listed companies, and the losses caused by financial fraud of Chinese enterprises are far smaller than those of American companies such as Enron and Lehman.</p><p>If Chinese stocks are delisted, American investors will lose a better investment target. However, after the delisting of Chinese stocks, they can go to Hong Kong stocks and A shares to be listed. If American investors are still optimistic about Chinese enterprises, they can continue to buy and invest in Hong Kong through the Qualified Foreign Investor Mechanism (QFII) or the interconnection mechanism.</p><p>As far as China is concerned, China is a country with high savings and a net exporter of capital, so it is not necessary to list in the United States to raise funds. China's own capital market is also gradually improving, and the registration system is also being piloted on the Science and Technology Innovation Board. It is likely that it will be fully rolled out in the near future. In the future, the convenience of Chinese enterprises listing in China will be greatly improved. Although the valuation of listing in A shares or Hong Kong stocks is likely to shrink, this is not an unacceptable challenge for the whole country.</p><p>Therefore, if Chinese companies are delisted in the United States, it is not an unacceptable event for both countries, and their fate will be more influenced by international relations and historical processes. At this time, what enterprises should do is to take precautions and prevent problems before they happen.</p><p>No one wants bad things to happen, but if they do, they will not be caught off guard.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese Concept Stocks Exit from the US Market, Could This Happen?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese Concept Stocks Exit from the US Market, Could This Happen?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/60\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">秦朔朋友圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-27 10:16</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Text/Jia Ming</p><p>On July 23rd, a document issued by the CPC Central Office entitled \"Opinions on Further Reducing the Burden of Homework and Off-campus Training for Students in Compulsory Education\" circulated on the Internet. The \"Opinions\" include measures such as \"capitalization\" operation of education and training institutions, and all discipline training institutions are prohibited from listing for financing. Overseas listed education stocks have fallen in response. For example, the share price of New Oriental on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was once \"halved\" (New Oriental S, closed down 40.61% on the 23rd and 47.02% on the 26th; New Oriental Online closed down 28.07% and 33.45% on the 23rd and 26th respectively; New Oriental closed down 54.22% on the 23rd in the US stock market). On the 23rd, Gaotu fell 63.26% in the US stock market, and TAL fell more than 70%.</p><p>The official has officially announced the document on the evening of July 24th, and many media have forwarded it in full. Interested readers can look for it.</p><p>Today's article does not analyze Circular No.40 of the Central Office, but wants to explore two issues.</p><p>First, why do so many Chinese companies choose to go public in the United States?</p><p>Second, considering Sino-US relations, Ruixing's fraud, Didi's removal from the shelves and other events, what is the future fate of these Chinese stocks listed overseas?</p><p><b>Main reasons</b></p><p>Chinese companies are more enthusiastic about listing on US stock exchanges than any other non-US company, even after the apparent chill in US-China relations.</p><p>In 2019, 32 companies went public in the United States, compared to 34 in 2020, and in the first half of 2021, 37 companies completed listing in the United States. According to wind data, as of July 2021, there were 286 Chinese companies listed in the United States — including those registered in offshore centers such as Hong Kong, China or the Cayman Islands, but most of their revenue and profits came from mainland China — in fact, most Chinese companies listed in the United States basically adopted this listing method.</p><p>Since 2018, while suppressing Chinese technology companies, the United States has raised its audit requirements for Chinese companies listed in the United States. The overall environment for Chinese companies to go public in the United States is not good, so why do Chinese companies still resolutely choose to go public in the United States?</p><p>Several well-known reasons are;</p><p>First, the capital market construction in the United States is relatively early, and the financing system and laws and regulations are relatively more mature and perfect. From the perspective of the overall financing environment, the United States is generally optimistic about Internet companies and high-tech companies. If the same stock is listed in the United States, it is relatively easy to obtain a higher valuation and raise more funds.</p><p>Second, and more importantly, the US capital market adopts a registration system, and there is no profit threshold for companies to be listed. As long as your company's business grows rapidly and occupies a large market share, it can go public even if it loses money. China adopts the audit system, and the necessary condition for applying for A-share listing is to make profits for three consecutive years.</p><p>Internet businesses are growing fast, so they are always very short of money. Some Internet companies, perhaps only a few years after their establishment, have become unicorns with a valuation of more than one billion. At this time, facing the pressure of investors to realize cash and further development, they have to prepare to go public for large-scale fundraising. However, most companies may have just begun to make profits at this time, or even not yet, so they can't meet the conditions of making profits for three consecutive years, and they can't go public for financing in the A-share market. If you wait for two or three years before going public to raise funds, you may not only miss the best development opportunity, but also fail to raise funds, and it is unknown whether the enterprise can survive. Therefore, we can only go abroad.</p><p>Third, the length of China's listing approval cycle is uncertain. When the listing approval is suspended and the company wants to go public, the whole process may take three or four years. Time is money, and many enterprises can't afford to wait.</p><p>The above three reasons, especially the second and third, should be the two main reasons for Chinese companies to go public in the United States. But beyond that, here are a few reasons that shouldn't be overlooked.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24b35bd20e43d6773e8057d5090c82e8\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Reason of origin</b></p><p>We often say now that Chinese Internet companies are doing very well. We usually call around 2000 the first year of China's Internet. But we can't forget that in the early days of the development of the Internet, few people could understand this format, so it was impossible for these enterprises to get bank loans.</p><p>In fact, it is difficult to get bank loans not only in the initial stage of the Internet, but also in the initial stage of all enterprises. Because of the strict loan approval procedures and natural risk aversion, commercial banks would rather earn less loan interest than lend money to stable enterprises.</p><p>Banks are not institutions that invest in start-ups. Investing in start-ups should be something that angel investors and venture capital institutions do. At that time, there was no venture capital (VC) and private equity (PE) in China. These Internet companies can't find money in China, but they need money for development. What should they do? Only overseas capital can be introduced.</p><p>You know, in the early days of our reform and opening up, we also exchanged domestic markets for overseas capital and technology. Therefore, as Deng Gong said, it doesn't matter if it is a black cat or a white cat, if it can catch mice, it is a good cat. Capital is neutral, regardless of whether it is good or bad. If only geography is used as the classification basis, it is certainly possible. But if you want to make a value judgment, it is more important to look at the specific things that these capitals are used for, rather than the origins of these capitals.</p><p>Therefore, many Internet giants in China (in order to avoid unnecessary trouble, I won't give examples here) were Sino-foreign joint ventures at the beginning of their establishment. This begs another question: the question of the legitimacy of the VIE architecture.</p><p>Variable Interest Entity Structure, referred to as VIE Structure, usually referred to as \"Agreement Control\", refers to a listed Entity registered overseas by a proposed listed company, which is separated from the mainland business operating Entity, and the overseas listed Entity controls the domestic business operating Entity through an agreement, and transfers its income and profits to the overseas company. VIE architecture has derived many different forms, but the essence is the same, so it will not be expanded here.</p><p>Because China's laws have strict restrictions on the industry access of overseas funds in \"information transmission, software and information technology services\", overseas capital is not allowed to directly invest in telecommunications and Internet-related enterprises. Of course, companies in these industries are not allowed to directly raise funds or go public overseas. Therefore, these enterprises adopt VIE architecture to bypass supervision.</p><p>Of course, regulation knows this form. The reason why it is not completely forbidden is that on the one hand, this structure is not \"obviously illegal\", and on the other hand, it is certainly a kind of regulatory wisdom.</p><p>However, if this kind of enterprise is listed in China, it still has to strictly follow the regulatory requirements of listing. Then the legality of this VIE structure becomes a problem, so it can't be listed directly in China.</p><p>This means that the roots of some Internet companies are crooked from the day they were born. If the root is not crooked, you can't survive, and if you survive, you will leave a bad background-\"lack of money-introduce foreign capital-become a joint venture-adopt a VIE structure-the legality of domestic listing is problematic-overseas listing\".</p><p>It is much better now. China's multi-level capital market construction is becoming more and more perfect, and there are more RMB venture capital and private placement. The problem of not finding money in China has been greatly alleviated.</p><p>Wang Xiaobo said in \"The Silent Majority\" that it is too easy to make value judgments. If we are a male rabbit, we naturally know that the big bad wolf is bad and the female rabbit is good. But the rabbit doesn't know how to memorize the multiplication table. Figuring out the above background is a bit like a multiplication table. No matter what kind of value evaluation we make on Internet companies going public overseas-how to evaluate it is our freedom-at least our judgment is based on the complete ins and outs of things.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f4d1b82e56c3a630026ec35cf9663d6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Other reasons</b></p><p>There are two other reasons, respectively, the free circulation of capital and the pursuit of different rights of the same share.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, because many enterprises are funded by international private equity funds and venture capital companies, and China implements foreign exchange control and lists at home, it will be troublesome for venture capital funds to make profits and have exchange risks, so they also have the incentive to encourage business owners to list abroad. Some business owners have the ambition of being multinational enterprises and are willing to go public in the United States, which is not only conducive to expanding the popularity of enterprises, but also conducive to the global layout of fund-raising and assets of enterprises, achieving multiple goals with one stone.</p><p>To be more verbose, private equity and venture capital eat the bowl of rice with high risk and high return. As long as they can make money in compliance with the law, it can't be said that there is anything wrong with people making a profit and exiting after the company goes public. Of course, if you violate the law and discipline, you must be held accountable according to law.</p><p>Some people may ask that when listed in Hong Kong, capital can also flow freely. Listed company entrepreneurs and early investors can easily convert Hong Kong dollars raised by listing into US dollars or any other currency. This leads to another reason, \"the same shares have the same rights\" and \"the same shares have different rights\".</p><p>Companies listed in mainland China should strictly abide by the regulations of the same shares and the same rights, that is, how many shares you own in the company will have as many voting rights when voting for major events. This is the reason why many companies don't want to go public, and are afraid that they will not own many shares after listing, which will lead to the company founders being speechless on the board of directors or even being kicked out. This is also the reason for the previously popular \"barbarian\" malicious takeovers, as long as someone else holds more shares than you, even if you are the founder, you will be kicked out.</p><p>Before 2018, listing in Hong Kong was also a requirement of the same shares and rights. In 2018, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange introduced a reform that allows technology companies and companies in the life sciences to adopt an American-style structure of same shares with different rights. Since then, more and more Chinese companies have chosen to list in Hong Kong, or in both Hong Kong, China and New York, USA.</p><p>Not that equal shares and equal rights are bad. Everything has pros and cons. Founders with the same shares and rights are required to be cautious about listing, because they may be overlooked or even kicked out of the decision-making level after listing. However, cautious listing may slow down the development of enterprises and miss the golden development period.</p><p>Going public in the United States provides an option of different rights for the same shares, which means that even if you hold less than 50% of the equity of the company, even if you only hold 10% or even less, you can still maintain control of the company. Although it is convenient for enterprises to go public and raise funds, it can easily lead to the problem of \"insider control\". As the actual controller of an enterprise is not the largest shareholder, when there is a conflict between the interests of shareholders and the interests of operators, the actual controller will easily pretend to be public for personal gain, enrich his own pockets, or adopt some risky business behaviors. In some countries, identical rights are considered to be one of the root causes of corporate governance problems.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c43b7c0037505392758b59f3788cc488\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Crisis of trust</b></p><p>The previous article basically explains why Chinese enterprises are more willing to go public in the United States. There are various reasons, including regulatory system and business operation. Generally speaking, it is a very normal business behavior of seeking advantages and avoiding disadvantages.</p><p>However, after the escalation of the Sino-US trade conflict, the United States has successively sanctioned Chinese companies, some of which are Chinese companies listed in the United States. This increases the risk of listing in the United States. Even if some companies that have already listed are not sanctioned, the risks brought by changes in international relations between the two countries are increasing. In 2020, Luckin's financial fraud aggravated the trust crisis of Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>The Trump administration took the opportunity to sign the Foreign Company Accountability Act before the end of its term, threatening to delist Chinese listed companies from American stock exchanges if China fails to allow the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) to obtain audit working papers for three consecutive years.</p><p>On June 22, 2021, the U.S. Senate passed another proposal, proposing that the delisting time could be advanced by one year.</p><p>The immediate reason for the U.S. threatening to delist Chinese companies is to protect U.S. investors from losses caused by accounting fraud similar to that of Luckin last year. To be honest, this actually seems quite reasonable. Financial fraud is a crime. Not only the United States, but we believe that the capital market of any country should crack down on financial fraud.</p><p>But here are a few questions.</p><p>First, China and the United States have been negotiating on the issue of audit papers, but why are they suddenly turning their faces now?</p><p>In 2009, China issued a law requiring enterprises to \"store the working papers and other files formed by securities companies and securities service institutions that provide related securities services in China in the process of issuing and listing securities overseas\".</p><p>In 2013, PCAOB of China and the United States signed a memorandum of understanding on cooperation, and provided PCAOB with audit working papers of four enterprises.</p><p>From 2016 to 2019, the regulatory authorities of both sides have also made some cooperative attempts on how to effectively inspect. When the relationship is good, there is business and quantity, but when the relationship is bad, it is a bit of turning your face and denying people.</p><p>Second, whether providing accounting papers is an effective form of combating financial fraud.</p><p>For example, in 2002, the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 were greatly revised in response to the financial fraud incident of Enron Company, forming the Public Company Accounting Reform and Investor Protection Act of 2002, or Sarbanes-Oxley Act for short, which made many new provisions in corporate governance, Accounting professional supervision and securities market supervision. In fact, this is conducive to protecting both listed companies and investors, which is a good thing.</p><p>But the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board established after the Sarbanes-Oxley Act can already review the audit papers of listed companies, but then there are accounting problems with WorldCom, Southern Health Care, Freddie Mac, AIG and Lehman Brothers. However, most serious accounting fraud incidents are often found by professional short-selling organizations by using \"private unannounced visits\" to investigate the company's business flow on the spot, and audit companies will not use these means.</p><p>The U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) may not necessarily be able to identify these financial frauds by auditing working papers. In other words, audit papers may help to combat financial fraud, but they are not an essential way, and they are not always 100 percent effective.</p><p>Third, the important target of the Foreign Company Accountability Act is Chinese stock companies, but it is not the first day that the United States knows that Chinese listed companies adopt VIE structure. If the United States thinks that there is a problem with the VIE structure, it can directly ban the listing of Chinese stocks.</p><p>When the relationship between the two countries is friendly, the audit paper is not a very important issue. The two countries can negotiate and solve it, and cooperate in supervision because of mutual trust. Now this mutual trust is gone.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e2b71cb10ca93f5741a9e9b49df382\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Prepare for a rainy day</b></p><p>We hope that Sino-US relations can return to friendship in the new competitive relationship. But if the gap between the two countries gets wider and wider, then Chinese companies listed in the United States really need to be prepared.</p><p>For China and the United States, the delisting of Chinese companies from the U.S. market does not seem to be an unbearable price.</p><p>As far as the United States is concerned, although the volatility of Chinese stocks is relatively large, the overall performance of Chinese stocks is better than that of most American listed companies, and the losses caused by financial fraud of Chinese enterprises are far smaller than those of American companies such as Enron and Lehman.</p><p>If Chinese stocks are delisted, American investors will lose a better investment target. However, after the delisting of Chinese stocks, they can go to Hong Kong stocks and A shares to be listed. If American investors are still optimistic about Chinese enterprises, they can continue to buy and invest in Hong Kong through the Qualified Foreign Investor Mechanism (QFII) or the interconnection mechanism.</p><p>As far as China is concerned, China is a country with high savings and a net exporter of capital, so it is not necessary to list in the United States to raise funds. China's own capital market is also gradually improving, and the registration system is also being piloted on the Science and Technology Innovation Board. It is likely that it will be fully rolled out in the near future. In the future, the convenience of Chinese enterprises listing in China will be greatly improved. Although the valuation of listing in A shares or Hong Kong stocks is likely to shrink, this is not an unacceptable challenge for the whole country.</p><p>Therefore, if Chinese companies are delisted in the United States, it is not an unacceptable event for both countries, and their fate will be more influenced by international relations and historical processes. At this time, what enterprises should do is to take precautions and prevent problems before they happen.</p><p>No one wants bad things to happen, but if they do, they will not be caught off guard.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab6f6a5034baf0d08c9227da13ca9733","relate_stocks":{"513050":"中概互联网ETF易方达"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120859674","content_text":"文/贾铭\n7月23日，一份名为《关于进一步减轻义务教育阶段学生作业负担和校外培训负担的意见》的中办发文件在网络流传。《意见》包含，严禁教育培训机构“资本化”运作，学科类培训机构一律不得上市融资等措施，海外上市的教育类股票应声而跌。比如，新东方在港交所的股价一度“腰斩”（新东方S，23号收跌40.61%，26号再收跌47.02%；新东方在线23号和26号分别收跌28.07%、33.45%；新东方在美股收盘跌幅23号为54.22%），23号，高途在美股跌幅达63.26%，好未来跌幅更是超过70%。\n官方已经于7月24日晚正式公布该文件，多家媒体有全文转发，感兴趣的读者可以找来看。\n今天这篇文章，并不分析中办的40号文，而是想探讨两个问题。\n第一，为什么这么多中国企业选择在美上市？\n第二，考虑到中美关系、瑞幸造假、滴滴下架等事件，在海外上市的这些中概股，未来命运如何？\n主要原因\n中国企业在美国的证券交易所上市的热情，差不多超过其他任何非美国的企业，即使在中美关系明显遇冷之后，依然如此。\n2019年，有32家企业赴美上市，2020年为34家，2021年上半年，已完成赴美上市的企业有37家。据wind数据，截至2021年7月，共有286家中国企业在美国上市——包括那些注册在中国香港或者开曼群岛等离岸中心，但大部分收入和利润来自中国内地的企业——事实上，大部分在美国上市的中国企业，基本都采取了这种上市方式。\n2018年以来，美国在打压中国科技企业的同时，提高了对赴美上市中国企业的审计要求，中企赴美上市的整体环境并不佳，那为什么中国企业仍毅然选择赴美上市呢？\n众所周知的几个原因是：\n第一，美国的资本市场建设比较早，融资体系和法律法规相对来讲更加成熟和完善。从总体融资环境看，美国对于互联网公司、高科技公司普遍看好，同样的一只股票，在美国上市，相对容易获得更高的估值，募集更多的资金。\n第二，更重要的是，美国资本市场采取注册制，对于拟上市公司不设盈利门槛。只要你的公司业务高速增长，占据很大的市场份额，即便亏损也能上市。我国采取审核制，申请A股上市的必要条件是连续三年盈利。\n互联网企业成长很快，所以总是非常缺钱。有的互联网企业，或许仅仅创立几年，就成为了估值超过十亿的独角兽，这时候面临投资人变现的压力和进一步发展的压力，就要准备上市做大规模筹资了，但是多数企业这时候可能才刚刚开始盈利，甚至还没有盈利，所以达不到连续三年盈利的条件，也就无法在A股市场上市融资。要是等两三年后再去上市筹资，不仅可能错过最好的发展时机，融不到资，企业能不能活下去都成了未知数。所以，只能去国外。\n第三，我国的上市审批周期长短不定，遇到上市审批暂停，企业想上市，整个流程长的话可能要三四年。时间就是金钱，很多企业等不起。\n以上三个原因，尤其是第二和第三，应该是中国企业赴美上市最主要的两个原因。但除此之外，还有以下几个原因不应该被忽视。\n\n出身原因\n我们现在经常说，中国的互联网企业做的很好。我们又通常把2000年前后，称为中国的互联网元年。但我们不能忘记，在互联网发展初期，没有几个人能看得懂这种业态，所以这些企业不可能拿到银行贷款。\n其实不仅仅是互联网初创期，所有企业初创期，都很难拿到银行贷款。由于商业银行严格的贷款审批手续和天生的风险厌恶属性，它宁愿少赚点贷款利息，也更愿意把钱贷给四平八稳的企业。\n银行本来就不是给初创企业投资的机构，给初创企业投资，应该是天使投资人和风投机构干的事儿，而我国那时候没有什么风险投资（VC）和私募股权（PE）。这些互联网企业在国内找不到钱，但发展又需要钱，怎么办？只能引进境外资本。\n要知道，我们的改革开放早期，也是用境内的市场换境外的资本和技术。所以还是邓公说的好，管它黑猫白猫，能抓老鼠就是好猫。资本本是中性，无所谓好坏，如果只是用地域作为分类依据，当然是可以的。但如果要做价值判断，更重要的是要看这些资本被用来做的具体的事情，而不是这些资本的出身。\n所以，我国的很多互联网巨头（为了避免不必要的麻烦，这里就不举例了），在设立之初，就是中外合资企业。这又引出了另一个问题：VIE架构的合法性问题。\n可变利益实体架构（Variable Interest Entity），简称VIE架构，通常被称为“协议控制”，是指拟上市公司在境外注册的上市实体，与内地业务经营主体分离，由境外上市实体透过协议方式控制境内业务经营主体，并把收入和利润转移到境外公司。VIE架构又衍生出很多不同的形式，但本质是一样的，这里不展开。\n因为我国法律对境外资金在“信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业”的行业准入有严格限制，不允许境外资本直接投资电信、互联网相关企业。当然也不允许这些行业的公司直接在海外集资或者上市。所以，这些企业采取VIE架构绕开监管。\n监管当然知道这种形式，之所以没有完全禁绝，一方面是这种架构并不“明显违法”，另一方面当然也是一种监管智慧。\n但这种企业在境内上市的话，还是要严格按照上市的监管要求，那这种VIE架构的合法性就成了问题，所以不能直接境内上市。\n这就意味着，一部分互联网企业从诞生的那天起，根就是歪的。根不歪就活不下来，活下来了又留下了不好的出身——“缺钱-引进外资-变成合资企业-采取VIE架构-境内上市的合法性有问题-境外上市”。\n现在好多了，我国的多层次资本市场建设越来越完善，人民币风投和私募也多了，在国内找不到钱的问题，得到了很大的缓解。\n王小波在《沉默的大多数》中说，做价值判断太容易了，如果我们是一只公兔子，我们天然就知道大灰狼坏，母兔子好。但兔子不知道怎么背九九乘法表。搞清楚上面这个背景，就有点九九乘法表的意思，无论我们对互联网企业去境外上市做出何种价值评价——如何评价是我们的自由——但起码我们的评判是基于事情完整的来龙去脉做出来的。\n\n其他原因\n还有两个原因分别是，资本的自由流通和同股不同权的追求。\n如前所述，由于很多企业的资金来源包括国际私募基金和风险投资公司，而中国又实行外汇管制，在境内上市，风投资金获利退出会很麻烦，有汇兑风险，所以他们也有动力鼓励企业所有者在境外上市。有的企业所有者有做跨国企业的雄心，也愿意在美国上市，这既有利于拓展企业的知名度，又有利于企业募资和资产的全球布局，一举多得。\n又得啰嗦一点，私募和风投吃的就是高风险高收益这碗饭，只要他们能遵纪守法地赚钱，就不能说人家在企业上市后获利退出有什么不对。当然，如果违法乱纪，那必然是要依法追责的。\n有人可能会问，在香港上市，资本也可以自由流动啊。上市公司创业者与早期投资者可以轻松地将上市筹集的港元兑换成美元或其他任何货币。这就到了另一个原因，“同股同权”和“同股不同权”。\n在我国内地上市的公司要严格遵守同股同权的条例，即你拥有该公司多少股份，在重大事件投票时就拥有多少的投票权，这就是很多公司不想上市的原因，害怕上市之后拥有的股份不多，导致公司创始人在董事会说不上话甚至会被踢出局。这也是之前流行的“野蛮人”恶意收购的原因，只要别人持有比你更多的股份，哪怕你是创始人，也会被踢出局。\n在2018年以前，在香港上市，也是同股同权的要求。2018年，港交所推出了一项改革，允许科技企业和生命科学领域里的企业采用美国式的同股不同权的结构。此后，越来越多的中国企业选择在香港上市，或者在中国香港和美国纽约两地同时挂牌。\n不是说同股同权不好。凡事都是有利有弊。同股同权要求持股不多的创始人谨慎上市，因为上市后可能被架空甚至踢出决策层，但谨慎上市又可能拖慢企业发展的速度，错过黄金发展期。\n赴美上市提供了一个同股不同权的选项，这就意味着，即使持有企业小于50%的股权，哪怕只持有10%甚至更低，也可以保持对企业的控制权。虽然方便了企业上市融资，但这很容易导致“内部人控制”问题。由于企业的实际控制人并不是最大的股东，那股东利益与经营者利益存在冲突的时候，实控人就容易假公济私，中饱私囊，或者采取一些风险比较大的经营行为。在一些国家，同股不同权被认为是企业治理问题的根源之一。\n\n信任危机\n前文基本解释了中国企业为啥更愿意去美国上市，有各种原因，有监管制度上的，有企业经营上的，总体而言，是一种很正常的趋利避害的商业行为。\n但中美贸易冲突升级以后，美国接连制裁中国的企业，有一些就是在美上市的中国企业。这增大了在美上市的风险，已经上市的部分企业，即使没有被制裁，因两国国际关系变动而带来的风险也在变大。2020年，瑞幸财务造假，更加剧了中概股的信任危机。\n特朗普政府趁机在任期结束之前签署《外国公司问责法案》，威胁说，如果中国方面连续三年不能够让美国上市公司会计监督委员会（PCAOB）获得审计工作底稿，中国的上市企业将会被美国证券交易所摘牌。\n2021年6月22日，美国参议院又通过了另一项提案，提出退市时间可以提前一年。\n美国威胁要让中国企业退市的直接理由是保护美国投资者免受类似于去年瑞幸咖啡那样的会计造假带来的损失。说实话，这看起来其实挺有道理。财务造假是犯罪，不仅美国，我们相信任何一个国家的资本市场都要打击财务造假。\n但这里有几个问题。\n第一，中美双方一直在就审计底稿的问题进行磋商，但为啥现在突然翻脸。\n2009年，我国出台法律，要求企业“在境外发行证券与上市过程中，提供相关证券服务的证券公司、证券服务机构在境内形成的工作底稿等档案应当存放在境内”。\n2013年，我国和美国的PCAOB签署了一份合作谅解备忘录，并向PCAOB提供了4家企业的审计工作底稿。\n2016年到2019年，双方监管部门也一直就如何来有效地检查，有过一些合作尝试。关系好的时候有商有量，关系不好的时候就有点翻脸不认人的意思。\n第二，提供会计底稿是不是打击财务造假的一种有效形式。\n美国的证券市场监管法规一直在不断升级，比如2002年针对安然公司财务造假事件对《1933年证券法》《1934年证券交易法》做出大幅修订，形成了《2002年上市公司会计改革和投资者保护法案》（Public Company Accounting Reform and Investor Protection Act of 2002），简称《萨班斯-奥克斯利法案》，在公司治理、会计职业监管、证券市场监管等方面作出了许多新的规定。这事实上既有利于保护上市公司，也有利于保护投资者，是好事儿。\n但《萨班斯-奥克斯利法案》之后建立的美国上市公司会计监督委员会已经可以审阅上市公司的审计底稿了，可之后又出现了世通、南方保健、房地美、美国国际集团和雷曼兄弟的会计问题。而大多数比较严重的会计造假事件，往往是由专业的卖空机构，通过使用“私服暗访”实地调查公司业务流量等技巧手段发现问题的，审计公司不会使用这些手段。\n美国上市公司会计监督委员会（PCAOB）不一定能通过审计工作底稿来发现这些财务造假。换言之，审计底稿或许有助于打击财务造假，但并不是一种必不可少的方式，也不总是百分百有效。\n第三，《外国公司问责法案》的重要目标就是中概股公司，但美国不是第一天知道中国上市公司采用VIE架构。如果美国认为VIE架构有问题，那直接禁止中概股上市即可。\n两国在关系友好的时候，审计底稿并不是一个很重要的问题，两国可以协商解决，合作监管，因为互相信任。现在这种互信没有了。\n\n未雨绸缪\n我们希望中美关系可以在新的竞争关系中复归友好。但如果两国的隔阂越来越大，那在美上市的中国企业，确实需要做好两手准备。\n对中美两国来讲，中国企业从美国市场退市，似乎都不是难以承受的代价。\n对美国来讲，尽管中概股的波动比较大，但中概股的整体表现优于大部分美国上市公司股票，中国企业财务造假带来的损失，也远小于安然、雷曼这些美国公司。\n如果中概股退市，美国投资者会失去一个比较好的投资标的。但中概股退市后可以去港股和A股上市，如果美国投资者依旧看好中国企业，可以继续在香港地区通过合格境外投资者机制（QFII）或者互联互通机制买进，进行投资。\n对中国来讲，我国是一个高储蓄国家和资本净出口国，并非一定要在美国上市募资。我国自己的资本市场也在逐渐完善，注册制也在科创板试点，很可能不久后的未来就会全面铺开，未来中国企业在国内上市的便利度会大幅度提升，虽然在A股或者港股上市，估值很可能有缩水，但这对整个国家来讲，并不是什么不可接受的挑战。\n所以，如果中国企业在美退市，对两国来讲并不是什么不可接受的事件，那它们的命运就更多地受国际关系和历史进程的影响。这时候，企业应该做的就是未雨绸缪，防患于未然。\n谁都不希望坏事发生，但如果发生，也不至于措手不及。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513050":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3590,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}