达达K personal page - To The Moon

达达K

达达K

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532Follow

3Followers

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2021-06-14

Good to buy

2021-07-01

Agree

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2022-03-02

Good

@达达K:Good to buy

2021-06-08

Good to buy

2022-05-05

k

@蔡生天天:春秋電子：擬0.8億元至1.5億元回購股份春秋電子(603890)5月5日晚間公告，擬以0.8億元-1.5億元回購股份，回購價格不超過13.71元/股。此次回購的股份將全部用於公司員工持股計劃或股權激勵計劃。

2022-04-21

Ok

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2021-07-07

?

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2022-05-09

Like

@达达jam:AEM ,長期投資,good stock

2022-01-22

Like

@达达jam:Yes,cary

2021-06-16

Good buy

2022-04-26

Yes

@股民Oscar:留好子彈，準備反攻利潤都是跌出來的，要想賺錢，總得讓它跌個夠

2022-02-26

Like

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2021-06-05

Good to buy

2021-06-03

?????

AMC院线单日翻倍，市值一夜暴涨百亿美元，发生了什么？

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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,長期投資,good stock","listText":"AEM ,長期投資,good stock","text":"AEM ,長期投資,good 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14:48","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"俄乌冲突下的两只灰犀牛，会让我们重回1970年代吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2229970689","media":"格隆汇","summary":"货币紧缩与俄乌冲突交织，联储“走钢丝”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>今天我想和大家分享三部分的内容：第一是对年初以来全球市场主线的回顾，第二是俄乌冲突后我们在全球金融体系里看到的两只灰犀牛，第三是在这样的外部环境下，中国受到的影响和应对。</p><h3>一、全球金融市场：货币紧缩与俄乌冲突交织，联储“走钢丝”</h3><p>从全球金融市场的表现来看，年初至2月中下旬前市场股债双杀，体现联储收紧的冲击；俄乌战争爆发后，市场开始反映短期避险的升温和中期滞胀的担忧；3月中下旬以来，俄乌局势进入焦灼状态后，市场重新关注联储快速紧缩的影响。考虑到俄乌问题对全球经济和金融体系的影响可能较为延续——我们之后会进一步讨论——后期这两条主线预期还会交织影响市场。</p><p>就联储政策而言，如果不考虑俄乌后续带来的额外突发冲击，美国核心通胀近期应已出现同比增速见顶迹象，核心PCE预期在年底逐步回落至3%附近。但即便如此，这仍然显著高于联储通胀目标。</p><p>越往后看，联储可能越会处于一个走钢丝的状态：一方面，当前市场对美国经济乐观的重要原因是基于美国尚且健康的居民资产负债表——这与此前美股的牛市密不可分，如果货币收紧引发美国持续动荡进而冲击居民净资产，则来自需求端下行压力将加大；另一方面，如前所述，通胀预期及实际通胀水平仍然处在高位。所以在未来的一个阶段，联储政策可能需要在“稳股市”和“控通胀”这两者间找一个脆弱的平衡：整体政策的边际调整，很大程度上取决于其对市场的反应，整体货币政策的空间相对前期而言是明显收窄的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da00c449c8c74fec4a398395e6212ada\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><h3><b>二、俄乌冲突下的第一只灰犀牛：商品</b></h3><p><b>近期，俄乌冲突带来的能源供应短缺，已经开始通过通胀影响美欧的民意，进而体现在美欧国内政治走势上。</b>拜登政府对内政策在2021年三季度明确转向控通胀并对联储施压，这与民众对价格上涨的不满、进而导致其支持率下滑密切相关。俄乌冲突爆发后，法国极右翼候选人勒庞与马克龙的支持率缺口快速收窄，也体现了，欧洲民众的关注点开始从支持乌克兰转移到国内生活成本抬高上。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c1a78a5c9eac2be9dc9134648bb27a1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>实际上，俄乌问题冲突下的供应冲击并不仅限于能源，影响更为深远的可能是粮食。</b>俄罗斯和乌克兰是世界上重要的粮食和化肥出口国：以小麦为例，全球接近50个经济体全球至少 30%的小麦进口来自俄乌，其中东欧、南亚、北西非、南美对其的依赖尤为突出，由于战争及制裁导致的粮食和化肥供应中断，使得局部粮食危机频发的风险显著抬升。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e5b57f936cef2a655fce4270a79d509\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>进一步来看，粮食和能源可能还会成为地缘政治上的博弈筹码，加剧逆全球化。</b>从4月7日联合国对暂停俄罗斯在人权理事会成员资格的投票结果来看，赞成93票vs反对及弃权82票，体现出比较典型的二元分化，这背后除了有既有政治立场之外，也有粮食、化肥、能源等市场上俄罗斯的影响力因素。如果未来供应持续短缺，则不排除相关经济体的外交表态和国内政局可能也会受到扰动——尤其考虑美国也是全球主要的能源和粮食的出口国，这可能会成为政治博弈层面讨价还价的筹码，近期在秘鲁、巴西等南美洲经济体发生的政治动荡，可能都映射了这一点。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f10f2d211bb719327bd3611340c168be\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>近期部分新兴市场的市场走势，体现俄乌问题的溢出效应可能已经在发生</b>，包括南美主要经济体CDS明显回升，拉美新兴市场股市近期显著回调，这都提示我们需要关注新兴市场潜在脆弱性。一方面，是传统意义上对联储收紧的防御能力，包括其国内股债对外资的依赖度、外债占比及偿付能力等。另一方面，如果后续对俄制裁延续，与美国地缘关系较为亲近的经济体或尚能通过向美国购买粮食和能源短期缓解俄罗斯供应短缺，但与美国国际关系相对不那么紧密的经济体，美国可能乐见其经济陷入窘境，我觉得这是第一个我们需要关注的问题。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87cd043df655e5eaf53e0fd3635e689f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>综合来说，俄乌战争对商品市场的溢出效应，其影响范围可能会波及多个经济体的内部政治和外交战略。而从全球化的角度来说，相关必需品成为外交中的重要筹码，又可能会导致全球经贸体系进一步的撕裂，这是需要注意的第一只灰犀牛。</p><h3>三、俄乌冲突下的第二只灰犀牛：国际货币金融体系</h3><p><b>我们需要密切跟踪“制裁”与“反制裁”举措对全球金融货币体系的影响。</b>今年年初以来美联储一直在进行货币政策的收紧，但美元广义名义有效汇率的升值幅度是远低于美元指数的。也就是说，美元今年的升值相对于日本、欧洲这经济体更明显，而对于更广义的包括新兴市场在内的全球主要的经济体来讲，升值幅度并不明显。历史上来看，当美联储货币政策收紧时，我们往往更加担心美联储的货币政策收紧所导致的新兴市场的资金流出的冲击。这次为什么不一样？我们认为背后可能的原因，就是美欧对于俄罗斯的制裁开始引发很多经济体、央行、投资者开始重新去思考美元体系安全性的问题。</p><p>不论是SWIFT制裁还是其他贸易金融和个人制裁，以及俄罗斯近期在金融方面的反制裁，都使得大家开始思考美元资产的安全性。在地缘冲突来临之时，投资者发现原本的金融规则可以一夜之间不复存在。这种担忧，可能已经开始动摇投资者对于当前以美元为主的全球金融体系的信心。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e89a2ec7d4ef5fe940c84ce4dc87753d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"579\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>需关注两只灰犀牛共振的影响——重演1970年代经济金融动荡的风险在上升。</b>很多人把70年代的滞胀归结于能源供应问题下的石油危机，但是能源危机之前，1971年美元和黄金的脱钩可能是更重要的背景。尼克松冲击后，货币定价的锚消失了，导致以纸币定价的大量实物商品价格上升，叠加石油危机的冲击，才形成了70年代的大通胀。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ec56032830c41b0a01dcd5deac1c203\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>围绕俄乌冲突的制裁与反制裁，引发市场对美元、日元等主要发达经济体货币体系的忧虑。在此基础上，俄乌冲突导致的能源粮食——这都是必需品——的短缺，是否会使我们再次进入到一个非常动荡的环境，是当前需要关注的灰犀牛。当然之所以它叫灰犀牛，就是这些犀牛它不一定会冲过来，但是如果这两个问题同时发生叠加共振的话，对于金融市场和经济的冲击可能是非常巨大的。</p><h3>四、对中国的影响：直接冲击不大，关注次生影响</h3><p><b>首先直接冲击来讲的话，粮食的问题对于中国来说影响不大。</b>三大主粮里面，中国大米供给充足，库存量高；小麦来看，俄罗斯是小麦的第一大出口国，中国小麦的进口压力不大且还有库存；玉米有一定程度的缺口，而且有50%的供应是来自于乌克兰，但玉米的可替代性高。所以整体的来讲的话，主粮层面上俄乌冲突对中国的直接影响不大，这一点也是受益于过去很多年中央一直说的“中国人的饭碗要端在自己手里”的政策。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a4845d3e9bddc107c8fed6b158f5825\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>但是我们更需要关注的是俄乌冲突的次生影响，也就是两只灰犀牛叠加的情况下，全球贸易体系可能会更加碎片化。</b>因此，无论是美国还是俄罗斯，可能都会很大程度上把粮食、能源、化肥这些必需品作为地缘政治上站队的一个讨价还价的“筹码”，这可能会意味着中国所面临的逆全球化加剧。</p><h3><b>五、更严峻的外部形势下，中国的应对</b></h3><p><b>此前中国经济受益于全球经贸一体化，因此如果未来逆全球化进程加速，中国出口将面临较大的潜在不确定性。除了终端需求收缩外，美国对华的经贸打压也是需要关注的风险。</b>今年2月美国新一版的供应链报告中，不仅讨论了“卡脖子”的产业，也讨论了对俄乌争端相关的产业，涉及我国信息技术、能源、国防、食品等多个行业。之前，美国对于中国供应链的政策主要围绕“卡脖子”的信息技术上，那么现在，美国可能会出台针对能源、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">农产品</a>的产业政策来进一步打压中国。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25c929359ec4352004739defcf2b2b47\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>所以往后看，中国将面临更严峻的外部形势，我们认为中国的应对思路主要是两条主线。</b></p><p>第一、中国将更强调做好自己的事。在外循环面临众多不确定性的冲击下，中国巨大市场的潜能是中国经济最重要的基本盘。</p><p>第二、中国将更强调稳定、加强与周边经济体的经贸关系，构建一个安全垫。</p><p>俄乌问题爆发在欧洲，而在最近联合国发起的各种针对俄罗斯的议案中，中国周边的经济体--包括东南亚、南亚等--不是投了反对票，就是弃权票。显然，体现了这些经济体希望和平、不希望事态扩大--更不希望冲突蔓延到亚洲的态度。中国周边有我们的第一大贸易伙伴欧盟，南亚又有除中国外最大的人口国家印度，同时中国与东亚各国的经贸关系也极为密切，如果能够稳定并加强相关经济体的经贸关系，将有助于形成中国经济的“缓冲垫”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c8d7fd23a8f20bb6fe19f794e17038f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><h3>六、动荡的全球金融体系中的人民币：谈谈中美利差倒挂的问题</h3><p>过去中美利差收窄时，市场会担心大规模的资金流出压力，但这次中美利差的转负并没有引起预期中的资金流出。甚至，在今年2到3月间俄乌问题爆发、美联储收紧时，人民币对美元一直保持强势。这可能意味着投资者对现有全球金融体系担忧程度上升背景下，人民币资产成为投资者对冲风险的一个重要选择。如果考虑到：1）此前投资者对人民币金融资产配置比例较低；2）未来全球经贸体系“二元化”的背景，则人民币相对美元走强其实具有一定的合理性。如果“对冲”成为汇率市场的主线，则利差是否倒挂也就不足以影响汇率的走势了。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d1124e2b8a76f2202167c2c418ac6f0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><h3><b>七、总结</b></h3><p>首先，俄乌冲突在商品供给端的溢出效应，意味着未来一阶段，全球会呈现局部粮食危机高发的状态，而粮食和能源也将成为地缘政治博弈中的重要筹码，进一步对全球化产生负面影响。</p><p>其次，围绕美欧俄的制裁与反制裁，使得投资者对于全球货币金融体系的担忧程度上升。</p><p>最重要的是，上述两只灰犀牛的共振，在1970年代引发了全球经济、金融市场大动荡，也影响了后续几十年的全球格局。因此，当前外部环境严峻时，我们需要持续去关注美元和商品共振所造成的影响。</p><p><b>风险提示：美欧滞胀风险超预期，新兴市场债务风险超预期，地缘政治风险超预期。</b></p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>俄乌冲突下的两只灰犀牛，会让我们重回1970年代吗？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n俄乌冲突下的两只灰犀牛，会让我们重回1970年代吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-21 14:48 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/522627><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今天我想和大家分享三部分的内容：第一是对年初以来全球市场主线的回顾，第二是俄乌冲突后我们在全球金融体系里看到的两只灰犀牛，第三是在这样的外部环境下，中国受到的影响和应对。一、全球金融市场：货币紧缩与俄乌冲突交织，联储“走钢丝”从全球金融市场的表现来看，年初至2月中下旬前市场股债双杀，体现联储收紧的冲击；俄乌战争爆发后，市场开始反映短期避险的升温和中期滞胀的担忧；3月中下旬以来，俄乌局势进入焦灼状态...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/522627\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6c82cf7967acddafade766f6f5c3a53","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/522627","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2229970689","content_text":"今天我想和大家分享三部分的内容：第一是对年初以来全球市场主线的回顾，第二是俄乌冲突后我们在全球金融体系里看到的两只灰犀牛，第三是在这样的外部环境下，中国受到的影响和应对。一、全球金融市场：货币紧缩与俄乌冲突交织，联储“走钢丝”从全球金融市场的表现来看，年初至2月中下旬前市场股债双杀，体现联储收紧的冲击；俄乌战争爆发后，市场开始反映短期避险的升温和中期滞胀的担忧；3月中下旬以来，俄乌局势进入焦灼状态后，市场重新关注联储快速紧缩的影响。考虑到俄乌问题对全球经济和金融体系的影响可能较为延续——我们之后会进一步讨论——后期这两条主线预期还会交织影响市场。就联储政策而言，如果不考虑俄乌后续带来的额外突发冲击，美国核心通胀近期应已出现同比增速见顶迹象，核心PCE预期在年底逐步回落至3%附近。但即便如此，这仍然显著高于联储通胀目标。越往后看，联储可能越会处于一个走钢丝的状态：一方面，当前市场对美国经济乐观的重要原因是基于美国尚且健康的居民资产负债表——这与此前美股的牛市密不可分，如果货币收紧引发美国持续动荡进而冲击居民净资产，则来自需求端下行压力将加大；另一方面，如前所述，通胀预期及实际通胀水平仍然处在高位。所以在未来的一个阶段，联储政策可能需要在“稳股市”和“控通胀”这两者间找一个脆弱的平衡：整体政策的边际调整，很大程度上取决于其对市场的反应，整体货币政策的空间相对前期而言是明显收窄的。二、俄乌冲突下的第一只灰犀牛：商品近期，俄乌冲突带来的能源供应短缺，已经开始通过通胀影响美欧的民意，进而体现在美欧国内政治走势上。拜登政府对内政策在2021年三季度明确转向控通胀并对联储施压，这与民众对价格上涨的不满、进而导致其支持率下滑密切相关。俄乌冲突爆发后，法国极右翼候选人勒庞与马克龙的支持率缺口快速收窄，也体现了，欧洲民众的关注点开始从支持乌克兰转移到国内生活成本抬高上。实际上，俄乌问题冲突下的供应冲击并不仅限于能源，影响更为深远的可能是粮食。俄罗斯和乌克兰是世界上重要的粮食和化肥出口国：以小麦为例，全球接近50个经济体全球至少 30%的小麦进口来自俄乌，其中东欧、南亚、北西非、南美对其的依赖尤为突出，由于战争及制裁导致的粮食和化肥供应中断，使得局部粮食危机频发的风险显著抬升。进一步来看，粮食和能源可能还会成为地缘政治上的博弈筹码，加剧逆全球化。从4月7日联合国对暂停俄罗斯在人权理事会成员资格的投票结果来看，赞成93票vs反对及弃权82票，体现出比较典型的二元分化，这背后除了有既有政治立场之外，也有粮食、化肥、能源等市场上俄罗斯的影响力因素。如果未来供应持续短缺，则不排除相关经济体的外交表态和国内政局可能也会受到扰动——尤其考虑美国也是全球主要的能源和粮食的出口国，这可能会成为政治博弈层面讨价还价的筹码，近期在秘鲁、巴西等南美洲经济体发生的政治动荡，可能都映射了这一点。近期部分新兴市场的市场走势，体现俄乌问题的溢出效应可能已经在发生，包括南美主要经济体CDS明显回升，拉美新兴市场股市近期显著回调，这都提示我们需要关注新兴市场潜在脆弱性。一方面，是传统意义上对联储收紧的防御能力，包括其国内股债对外资的依赖度、外债占比及偿付能力等。另一方面，如果后续对俄制裁延续，与美国地缘关系较为亲近的经济体或尚能通过向美国购买粮食和能源短期缓解俄罗斯供应短缺，但与美国国际关系相对不那么紧密的经济体，美国可能乐见其经济陷入窘境，我觉得这是第一个我们需要关注的问题。综合来说，俄乌战争对商品市场的溢出效应，其影响范围可能会波及多个经济体的内部政治和外交战略。而从全球化的角度来说，相关必需品成为外交中的重要筹码，又可能会导致全球经贸体系进一步的撕裂，这是需要注意的第一只灰犀牛。三、俄乌冲突下的第二只灰犀牛：国际货币金融体系我们需要密切跟踪“制裁”与“反制裁”举措对全球金融货币体系的影响。今年年初以来美联储一直在进行货币政策的收紧，但美元广义名义有效汇率的升值幅度是远低于美元指数的。也就是说，美元今年的升值相对于日本、欧洲这经济体更明显，而对于更广义的包括新兴市场在内的全球主要的经济体来讲，升值幅度并不明显。历史上来看，当美联储货币政策收紧时，我们往往更加担心美联储的货币政策收紧所导致的新兴市场的资金流出的冲击。这次为什么不一样？我们认为背后可能的原因，就是美欧对于俄罗斯的制裁开始引发很多经济体、央行、投资者开始重新去思考美元体系安全性的问题。不论是SWIFT制裁还是其他贸易金融和个人制裁，以及俄罗斯近期在金融方面的反制裁，都使得大家开始思考美元资产的安全性。在地缘冲突来临之时，投资者发现原本的金融规则可以一夜之间不复存在。这种担忧，可能已经开始动摇投资者对于当前以美元为主的全球金融体系的信心。需关注两只灰犀牛共振的影响——重演1970年代经济金融动荡的风险在上升。很多人把70年代的滞胀归结于能源供应问题下的石油危机，但是能源危机之前，1971年美元和黄金的脱钩可能是更重要的背景。尼克松冲击后，货币定价的锚消失了，导致以纸币定价的大量实物商品价格上升，叠加石油危机的冲击，才形成了70年代的大通胀。围绕俄乌冲突的制裁与反制裁，引发市场对美元、日元等主要发达经济体货币体系的忧虑。在此基础上，俄乌冲突导致的能源粮食——这都是必需品——的短缺，是否会使我们再次进入到一个非常动荡的环境，是当前需要关注的灰犀牛。当然之所以它叫灰犀牛，就是这些犀牛它不一定会冲过来，但是如果这两个问题同时发生叠加共振的话，对于金融市场和经济的冲击可能是非常巨大的。四、对中国的影响：直接冲击不大，关注次生影响首先直接冲击来讲的话，粮食的问题对于中国来说影响不大。三大主粮里面，中国大米供给充足，库存量高；小麦来看，俄罗斯是小麦的第一大出口国，中国小麦的进口压力不大且还有库存；玉米有一定程度的缺口，而且有50%的供应是来自于乌克兰，但玉米的可替代性高。所以整体的来讲的话，主粮层面上俄乌冲突对中国的直接影响不大，这一点也是受益于过去很多年中央一直说的“中国人的饭碗要端在自己手里”的政策。但是我们更需要关注的是俄乌冲突的次生影响，也就是两只灰犀牛叠加的情况下，全球贸易体系可能会更加碎片化。因此，无论是美国还是俄罗斯，可能都会很大程度上把粮食、能源、化肥这些必需品作为地缘政治上站队的一个讨价还价的“筹码”，这可能会意味着中国所面临的逆全球化加剧。五、更严峻的外部形势下，中国的应对此前中国经济受益于全球经贸一体化，因此如果未来逆全球化进程加速，中国出口将面临较大的潜在不确定性。除了终端需求收缩外，美国对华的经贸打压也是需要关注的风险。今年2月美国新一版的供应链报告中，不仅讨论了“卡脖子”的产业，也讨论了对俄乌争端相关的产业，涉及我国信息技术、能源、国防、食品等多个行业。之前，美国对于中国供应链的政策主要围绕“卡脖子”的信息技术上，那么现在，美国可能会出台针对能源、农产品的产业政策来进一步打压中国。所以往后看，中国将面临更严峻的外部形势，我们认为中国的应对思路主要是两条主线。第一、中国将更强调做好自己的事。在外循环面临众多不确定性的冲击下，中国巨大市场的潜能是中国经济最重要的基本盘。第二、中国将更强调稳定、加强与周边经济体的经贸关系，构建一个安全垫。俄乌问题爆发在欧洲，而在最近联合国发起的各种针对俄罗斯的议案中，中国周边的经济体--包括东南亚、南亚等--不是投了反对票，就是弃权票。显然，体现了这些经济体希望和平、不希望事态扩大--更不希望冲突蔓延到亚洲的态度。中国周边有我们的第一大贸易伙伴欧盟，南亚又有除中国外最大的人口国家印度，同时中国与东亚各国的经贸关系也极为密切，如果能够稳定并加强相关经济体的经贸关系，将有助于形成中国经济的“缓冲垫”。六、动荡的全球金融体系中的人民币：谈谈中美利差倒挂的问题过去中美利差收窄时，市场会担心大规模的资金流出压力，但这次中美利差的转负并没有引起预期中的资金流出。甚至，在今年2到3月间俄乌问题爆发、美联储收紧时，人民币对美元一直保持强势。这可能意味着投资者对现有全球金融体系担忧程度上升背景下，人民币资产成为投资者对冲风险的一个重要选择。如果考虑到：1）此前投资者对人民币金融资产配置比例较低；2）未来全球经贸体系“二元化”的背景，则人民币相对美元走强其实具有一定的合理性。如果“对冲”成为汇率市场的主线，则利差是否倒挂也就不足以影响汇率的走势了。七、总结首先，俄乌冲突在商品供给端的溢出效应，意味着未来一阶段，全球会呈现局部粮食危机高发的状态，而粮食和能源也将成为地缘政治博弈中的重要筹码，进一步对全球化产生负面影响。其次，围绕美欧俄的制裁与反制裁，使得投资者对于全球货币金融体系的担忧程度上升。最重要的是，上述两只灰犀牛的共振，在1970年代引发了全球经济、金融市场大动荡，也影响了后续几十年的全球格局。因此，当前外部环境严峻时，我们需要持续去关注美元和商品共振所造成的影响。风险提示：美欧滞胀风险超预期，新兴市场债务风险超预期，地缘政治风险超预期。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":627,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9033158122,"gmtCreate":1646226486955,"gmtModify":1676534105685,"author":{"id":"3571103870473964","authorId":"3571103870473964","name":"达达K","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/41bafef36a23fb83033bbcab994d18c7","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571103870473964","authorIdStr":"3571103870473964"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9033158122","repostId":"185154127","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":185154127,"gmtCreate":1623638155269,"gmtModify":1704207525506,"author":{"id":"3571103870473964","authorId":"3571103870473964","name":"达达K","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/41bafef36a23fb83033bbcab994d18c7","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571103870473964","authorIdStr":"3571103870473964"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good to buy&nbsp;","listText":"Good to buy&nbsp;","text":"Good to buy","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bee96a2986fbd544d66aab9603ab0bb","width":"1080","height":"2101"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/185154127","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1116,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9039078543,"gmtCreate":1645855961552,"gmtModify":1676534071047,"author":{"id":"3571103870473964","authorId":"3571103870473964","name":"达达K","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/41bafef36a23fb83033bbcab994d18c7","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571103870473964","authorIdStr":"3571103870473964"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039078543","repostId":"1165042671","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165042671","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1645839799,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1165042671?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-26 09:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国证交会考虑新规：卖空者需每月报告相关活动","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165042671","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"新规将适用于持有至少1000万美元空头头寸或相当于总流通股2.5%以上的机构经理。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者：粥七</p><p>美东时间2月25日周五，美国证券交易委员会SEC表示其正在考虑一项新规，一些投资者机构或将被要求每月向SEC报告他们与卖空相关的活动，从而使SEC首次向公众提供详细的卖空数据，包括额空头头寸的汇总数据以及每日卖空数据。</p><p>美国证券交易委员会主席Gary Gensler在一份新闻稿中表示：</p><blockquote>SEC一致投票提议制定规则和修正案，扩大投资公众和监管机构可获得卖空相关数据的范围。</blockquote><blockquote>我很高兴支持这项提案，因为如果被采纳，将加强我们市场中一个重要领域的透明度，而这一领域将从更大的可见度和监督中受益。</blockquote><p>Gensler表示，新的规则制定将适用于持有至少1000万美元空头头寸或相当于总流通股2.5%以上的机构经理。</p><blockquote>对公众和委员会来说，更多了解这个重要的市场是很重要的，特别是在压力或波动的时候。拟议的规则将有助于委员会处理未来的市场事件，在透明的需求和价格发现过程之间取得平衡。</blockquote><p>早在2005年SEC就设立名为Regulation SHO的条例限制裸卖空行为，该项条例规定投资者在进行股票卖空时必须要有充分理由确保自己有能力在交易结算前持有要卖空的股票否则就要补仓，不然就算违约Fail to Deliver，如果事后被发现裸卖空者有抛空或狙击股价的嫌疑，则算犯法。</p><p>“裸卖空”是指投资者没有借入股票而直接在市场上卖出根本不存在的股票，在股价进一步下跌时再买回股票获得利润的投资手法。进行“裸卖空”的交易者只要在交割日期前买入股票，交易即获成功。由于“裸卖空”卖出的是不存在的股票，量可能非常大，因此会对股价造成剧烈冲击。</p><p>投资者认为卖空者操纵市场、可能存在欺诈行为以及缺乏卖空交易公开数据的问题依然翠在。此次提议的新规试图通过进一步增强市场透明度以弥补这一问题。</p><p>按照设计，新规定将增加所谓的“买入-回补”的披露，卖空批评人士可能会欢迎这一规定，因为它将旨在进一步遏制所谓的“裸卖空”。2008年全球金融危机爆发后，美国证券交易委员会禁止交易员利用不存在的股票做空上市公司的股票。</p><p>去年年底，SEC提出一项规则，要求向卖空者出借证券的经纪公司和资产管理公司在出借后15分钟内向金融业监管局等监督机构报告每笔贷款的数据。</p><p>SEC表示，鉴于其最新的规则修改建议，其延长了对该规则的公众评论期。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国证交会考虑新规：卖空者需每月报告相关活动</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国证交会考虑新规：卖空者需每月报告相关活动\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-26 09:43 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652877><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：粥七美东时间2月25日周五，美国证券交易委员会SEC表示其正在考虑一项新规，一些投资者机构或将被要求每月向SEC报告他们与卖空相关的活动，从而使SEC首次向公众提供详细的卖空数据，包括额空头头寸的汇总数据以及每日卖空数据。美国证券交易委员会主席Gary Gensler在一份新闻稿中表示：SEC一致投票提议制定规则和修正案，扩大投资公众和监管机构可获得卖空相关数据的范围。我很高兴支持这项提案，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652877\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b45ea8bb6e8a9c6428f1a279df367be","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652877","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1165042671","content_text":"作者：粥七美东时间2月25日周五，美国证券交易委员会SEC表示其正在考虑一项新规，一些投资者机构或将被要求每月向SEC报告他们与卖空相关的活动，从而使SEC首次向公众提供详细的卖空数据，包括额空头头寸的汇总数据以及每日卖空数据。美国证券交易委员会主席Gary Gensler在一份新闻稿中表示：SEC一致投票提议制定规则和修正案，扩大投资公众和监管机构可获得卖空相关数据的范围。我很高兴支持这项提案，因为如果被采纳，将加强我们市场中一个重要领域的透明度，而这一领域将从更大的可见度和监督中受益。Gensler表示，新的规则制定将适用于持有至少1000万美元空头头寸或相当于总流通股2.5%以上的机构经理。对公众和委员会来说，更多了解这个重要的市场是很重要的，特别是在压力或波动的时候。拟议的规则将有助于委员会处理未来的市场事件，在透明的需求和价格发现过程之间取得平衡。早在2005年SEC就设立名为Regulation SHO的条例限制裸卖空行为，该项条例规定投资者在进行股票卖空时必须要有充分理由确保自己有能力在交易结算前持有要卖空的股票否则就要补仓，不然就算违约Fail to Deliver，如果事后被发现裸卖空者有抛空或狙击股价的嫌疑，则算犯法。“裸卖空”是指投资者没有借入股票而直接在市场上卖出根本不存在的股票，在股价进一步下跌时再买回股票获得利润的投资手法。进行“裸卖空”的交易者只要在交割日期前买入股票，交易即获成功。由于“裸卖空”卖出的是不存在的股票，量可能非常大，因此会对股价造成剧烈冲击。投资者认为卖空者操纵市场、可能存在欺诈行为以及缺乏卖空交易公开数据的问题依然翠在。此次提议的新规试图通过进一步增强市场透明度以弥补这一问题。按照设计，新规定将增加所谓的“买入-回补”的披露，卖空批评人士可能会欢迎这一规定，因为它将旨在进一步遏制所谓的“裸卖空”。2008年全球金融危机爆发后，美国证券交易委员会禁止交易员利用不存在的股票做空上市公司的股票。去年年底，SEC提出一项规则，要求向卖空者出借证券的经纪公司和资产管理公司在出借后15分钟内向金融业监管局等监督机构报告每笔贷款的数据。SEC表示，鉴于其最新的规则修改建议，其延长了对该规则的公众评论期。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":698,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007634010,"gmtCreate":1642863835945,"gmtModify":1676533753469,"author":{"id":"3571103870473964","authorId":"3571103870473964","name":"达达K","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/41bafef36a23fb83033bbcab994d18c7","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571103870473964","authorIdStr":"3571103870473964"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007634010","repostId":"115804487","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":115804487,"gmtCreate":1622966351649,"gmtModify":1704193909590,"author":{"id":"3567242485136825","authorId":"3567242485136825","name":"达达jam","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8a49ecf9fb8dd1d923e4dc63be8734a5","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567242485136825","authorIdStr":"3567242485136825"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes,cary","listText":"Yes,cary","text":"Yes,cary","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/115804487","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":965,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140030471,"gmtCreate":1625618645793,"gmtModify":1703744951428,"author":{"id":"3571103870473964","authorId":"3571103870473964","name":"达达K","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/41bafef36a23fb83033bbcab994d18c7","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571103870473964","authorIdStr":"3571103870473964"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140030471","repostId":"1154903802","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154903802","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国智能硬件第一媒体","home_visible":1,"media_name":"雷峰网","id":"1035809132","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e82b7d80628947a3824c7ea172002b74"},"pubTimestamp":1625611904,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154903802?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-07 06:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"亚马逊取得阶段性胜利！微软痛失国防部100亿美元大合同","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154903802","media":"雷峰网","summary":"当地时间周二，美国国防部宣布取消了一项价值100亿美元的云计算合同，该合同曾是亚马逊和微软之间的法律纠纷之一。\nJEDI，也称作联合企业防御基础设施，该交易已成为美国国防部最纠结的合同之一。美国国防部","content":"<p>当地时间周二，美国国防部宣布取消了一项价值100亿美元的云计算合同，该合同曾是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>之间的法律纠纷之一。</p>\n<p>JEDI，也称作联合企业防御基础设施，该交易已成为美国国防部最纠结的合同之一。美国国防部在周二的一份新闻稿中表示：“随着需求的不断发展、云计算的普及以及行业的进步，JEDI已经不能满足国防部的需求。”</p>\n<p>截止收盘，微软股价持平，而亚马逊的股价上涨4.69%，创历史新高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e78dadc22376c6d1a9984b4ba7bf15c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bf1b47bfdbdb0f5e1201e37886c398f\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但围绕云计算项目的争夺战似乎没完全结束。美国国防部在新闻稿中表示，国防部仍然需要企业级的云能力，同时宣布了一项称为联合作战人员云能力的多供应商合同。</p>\n<p>美国国防部还表示，考虑到只有亚马逊和微软是能满足其需求的云服务供应商，目前正计划向这两家企业征求合同提案。不过美国国防部也将继续通过市场研究调研其他公司，是否也能满足自己需要的规格。</p>\n<p>其实，美国国防部是想利用这份利润丰厚的JEDI合同，通过长达10年的服务让五角大楼的IT运营实现现代化。</p>\n<p>2019年微软击败亚马逊获得云计算的合同，一个月后亚马逊的云计算部门向美国联邦索赔法院提起诉讼，抗议JEDI的决定。亚马逊表示，特朗普对亚马逊和贝索斯的偏见导致了美国国防部将合同给了微软。</p>\n<p>去年，美国国防部监察长发布报告表示，该授予没受到白宫的影响。不过，他在2020年4月发布的一份313页的报告中指出，在整个审查过程中白宫官员的合作有限，因此无法对道德不端行为的指控进行评估。</p>\n<p>微软在一篇博客文章中表示，公司理解美国国防部取消JEDI合同的决定，但是围绕这一问题的法律斗争说明了改革的必要性。</p>\n<p>微软美国监管行业总裁Toni Townes-Whitley写到：“自国防部选择微软作为JEDI&nbsp;合作伙伴以来的20个月，我们要强调一下关于决策者需要关注的问题：当一家公司可以推迟升级能捍卫国家人民的技术数年时，这种抗议的过程需要改革。”</p>\n<p>Townes-Whitley补充道：“尽管美国国防部下此决定，但是并没有改变这样的事实：经过专业采购人员的仔细审查，国防部不是一次而是两次认定微软和微软的技术最能满足他们的需求。</p>\n<p>这项决定也不会改变国防部监察长，关于没有证据表明国防部的采购过程受到干扰的结论，也没有改变这样的事实，即国防部和其他联邦机构、全球的大型企业，都选择微软来定期支持他们的云计算和数字化转型需求。”</p>\n<p>亚马逊没有立即回应CNBC的置评请求。</p>\n<p>美国国防部的一名官员在接受记者的电话采访中表示，亚马逊的诉讼并不是改变五角大楼决定的原因，但考虑到在这段时间内形势有变，五角大楼的需求也已经发生了变化。</p>\n<p>美国国防部代理首席信息官John Sherman表示：“任务需求一直是我们的驱动力。”</p>\n<p>美国国防部表示，关于执行新合同的云供应商必须满足几个标准，比如在三个分类级别（非机密、机密或绝密）中工作时，在全球范围内可用并拥有顶级的网络安全控制。</p>\n<p>并且，这份合同的价值或将达到数十亿美元，不过目前仍在确定最大值。并且预计该合同的最长期限为五年，包括三年的绩效基期和两个一年的期权期。</p>\n<p>Sherman表示，五角大楼希望JWCC成为“我们实现长期目标的桥梁”。他表示，预计2022年4月美国国防部通过合同直接奖励，最快在2025年展开更广泛的竞争。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>亚马逊取得阶段性胜利！微软痛失国防部100亿美元大合同</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n亚马逊取得阶段性胜利！微软痛失国防部100亿美元大合同\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1035809132\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/e82b7d80628947a3824c7ea172002b74);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">雷峰网 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-07 06:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>当地时间周二，美国国防部宣布取消了一项价值100亿美元的云计算合同，该合同曾是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>之间的法律纠纷之一。</p>\n<p>JEDI，也称作联合企业防御基础设施，该交易已成为美国国防部最纠结的合同之一。美国国防部在周二的一份新闻稿中表示：“随着需求的不断发展、云计算的普及以及行业的进步，JEDI已经不能满足国防部的需求。”</p>\n<p>截止收盘，微软股价持平，而亚马逊的股价上涨4.69%，创历史新高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e78dadc22376c6d1a9984b4ba7bf15c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bf1b47bfdbdb0f5e1201e37886c398f\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但围绕云计算项目的争夺战似乎没完全结束。美国国防部在新闻稿中表示，国防部仍然需要企业级的云能力，同时宣布了一项称为联合作战人员云能力的多供应商合同。</p>\n<p>美国国防部还表示，考虑到只有亚马逊和微软是能满足其需求的云服务供应商，目前正计划向这两家企业征求合同提案。不过美国国防部也将继续通过市场研究调研其他公司，是否也能满足自己需要的规格。</p>\n<p>其实，美国国防部是想利用这份利润丰厚的JEDI合同，通过长达10年的服务让五角大楼的IT运营实现现代化。</p>\n<p>2019年微软击败亚马逊获得云计算的合同，一个月后亚马逊的云计算部门向美国联邦索赔法院提起诉讼，抗议JEDI的决定。亚马逊表示，特朗普对亚马逊和贝索斯的偏见导致了美国国防部将合同给了微软。</p>\n<p>去年，美国国防部监察长发布报告表示，该授予没受到白宫的影响。不过，他在2020年4月发布的一份313页的报告中指出，在整个审查过程中白宫官员的合作有限，因此无法对道德不端行为的指控进行评估。</p>\n<p>微软在一篇博客文章中表示，公司理解美国国防部取消JEDI合同的决定，但是围绕这一问题的法律斗争说明了改革的必要性。</p>\n<p>微软美国监管行业总裁Toni Townes-Whitley写到：“自国防部选择微软作为JEDI&nbsp;合作伙伴以来的20个月，我们要强调一下关于决策者需要关注的问题：当一家公司可以推迟升级能捍卫国家人民的技术数年时，这种抗议的过程需要改革。”</p>\n<p>Townes-Whitley补充道：“尽管美国国防部下此决定，但是并没有改变这样的事实：经过专业采购人员的仔细审查，国防部不是一次而是两次认定微软和微软的技术最能满足他们的需求。</p>\n<p>这项决定也不会改变国防部监察长，关于没有证据表明国防部的采购过程受到干扰的结论，也没有改变这样的事实，即国防部和其他联邦机构、全球的大型企业，都选择微软来定期支持他们的云计算和数字化转型需求。”</p>\n<p>亚马逊没有立即回应CNBC的置评请求。</p>\n<p>美国国防部的一名官员在接受记者的电话采访中表示，亚马逊的诉讼并不是改变五角大楼决定的原因，但考虑到在这段时间内形势有变，五角大楼的需求也已经发生了变化。</p>\n<p>美国国防部代理首席信息官John Sherman表示：“任务需求一直是我们的驱动力。”</p>\n<p>美国国防部表示，关于执行新合同的云供应商必须满足几个标准，比如在三个分类级别（非机密、机密或绝密）中工作时，在全球范围内可用并拥有顶级的网络安全控制。</p>\n<p>并且，这份合同的价值或将达到数十亿美元，不过目前仍在确定最大值。并且预计该合同的最长期限为五年，包括三年的绩效基期和两个一年的期权期。</p>\n<p>Sherman表示，五角大楼希望JWCC成为“我们实现长期目标的桥梁”。他表示，预计2022年4月美国国防部通过合同直接奖励，最快在2025年展开更广泛的竞争。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3473f757d00eee50292777a0505620c4","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","MSFT":"微软"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154903802","content_text":"当地时间周二，美国国防部宣布取消了一项价值100亿美元的云计算合同，该合同曾是亚马逊和微软之间的法律纠纷之一。\nJEDI，也称作联合企业防御基础设施，该交易已成为美国国防部最纠结的合同之一。美国国防部在周二的一份新闻稿中表示：“随着需求的不断发展、云计算的普及以及行业的进步，JEDI已经不能满足国防部的需求。”\n截止收盘，微软股价持平，而亚马逊的股价上涨4.69%，创历史新高。\n\n但围绕云计算项目的争夺战似乎没完全结束。美国国防部在新闻稿中表示，国防部仍然需要企业级的云能力，同时宣布了一项称为联合作战人员云能力的多供应商合同。\n美国国防部还表示，考虑到只有亚马逊和微软是能满足其需求的云服务供应商，目前正计划向这两家企业征求合同提案。不过美国国防部也将继续通过市场研究调研其他公司，是否也能满足自己需要的规格。\n其实，美国国防部是想利用这份利润丰厚的JEDI合同，通过长达10年的服务让五角大楼的IT运营实现现代化。\n2019年微软击败亚马逊获得云计算的合同，一个月后亚马逊的云计算部门向美国联邦索赔法院提起诉讼，抗议JEDI的决定。亚马逊表示，特朗普对亚马逊和贝索斯的偏见导致了美国国防部将合同给了微软。\n去年，美国国防部监察长发布报告表示，该授予没受到白宫的影响。不过，他在2020年4月发布的一份313页的报告中指出，在整个审查过程中白宫官员的合作有限，因此无法对道德不端行为的指控进行评估。\n微软在一篇博客文章中表示，公司理解美国国防部取消JEDI合同的决定，但是围绕这一问题的法律斗争说明了改革的必要性。\n微软美国监管行业总裁Toni Townes-Whitley写到：“自国防部选择微软作为JEDI 合作伙伴以来的20个月，我们要强调一下关于决策者需要关注的问题：当一家公司可以推迟升级能捍卫国家人民的技术数年时，这种抗议的过程需要改革。”\nTownes-Whitley补充道：“尽管美国国防部下此决定，但是并没有改变这样的事实：经过专业采购人员的仔细审查，国防部不是一次而是两次认定微软和微软的技术最能满足他们的需求。\n这项决定也不会改变国防部监察长，关于没有证据表明国防部的采购过程受到干扰的结论，也没有改变这样的事实，即国防部和其他联邦机构、全球的大型企业，都选择微软来定期支持他们的云计算和数字化转型需求。”\n亚马逊没有立即回应CNBC的置评请求。\n美国国防部的一名官员在接受记者的电话采访中表示，亚马逊的诉讼并不是改变五角大楼决定的原因，但考虑到在这段时间内形势有变，五角大楼的需求也已经发生了变化。\n美国国防部代理首席信息官John Sherman表示：“任务需求一直是我们的驱动力。”\n美国国防部表示，关于执行新合同的云供应商必须满足几个标准，比如在三个分类级别（非机密、机密或绝密）中工作时，在全球范围内可用并拥有顶级的网络安全控制。\n并且，这份合同的价值或将达到数十亿美元，不过目前仍在确定最大值。并且预计该合同的最长期限为五年，包括三年的绩效基期和两个一年的期权期。\nSherman表示，五角大楼希望JWCC成为“我们实现长期目标的桥梁”。他表示，预计2022年4月美国国防部通过合同直接奖励，最快在2025年展开更广泛的竞争。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":701,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151420210,"gmtCreate":1625103164030,"gmtModify":1703736170863,"author":{"id":"3571103870473964","authorId":"3571103870473964","name":"达达K","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/41bafef36a23fb83033bbcab994d18c7","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571103870473964","authorIdStr":"3571103870473964"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Agree&nbsp;","listText":"Agree&nbsp;","text":"Agree","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/151420210","repostId":"1145558758","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169193508,"gmtCreate":1623820125404,"gmtModify":1703820488864,"author":{"id":"3571103870473964","authorId":"3571103870473964","name":"达达K","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/41bafef36a23fb83033bbcab994d18c7","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571103870473964","authorIdStr":"3571103870473964"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good 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06:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"AMC院线单日翻倍，市值一夜暴涨百亿美元，发生了什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2140446973","media":"金十数据","summary":"散户抱团股又嗨了，新晋“网红股”之王诞生了。","content":"<p>周三，在市场整体窄幅震荡等待行情催化因素的背景下，美股三大指数小幅收涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>等WSB概念股集体暴涨，成为市场焦点。</p>\n<p>推出“爆米花股东福利”的<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>盘中暴涨126%，盘中几次熔断</b>，截至收盘，<b>AMC院线涨99.70%，年初至今累积上涨2959.91%</b>。除了AMC院线外，同属WSB概念的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KOSS\">高斯电子</a>周三收涨68.61%、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B家居</a>涨62.11%、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXPR\">Express</a>涨36.48%、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">黑莓</a>涨31.92%。</p>\n<p><b>AMC院线启动百万散户招待计划</b></p>\n<p>AMC院线近期多次对零售投资者主动示好引发了百万散户的“涌泉相报”——短短几个交易日里，公司的股价就从十几美元上蹿至60美元的历史新高，市值升至约330亿美元，超过GameStop约200亿美元的市值。</p>\n<p>AMC院线也不失时机地在周三推出名为<b>“AMC Investor Connect”的投资者回馈计划</b>（注：与日本的股东优待类似），其中包含特别优惠和最新活动，而且注册该计划的散户首次观影时还将获得一大桶免费爆米花。根据公司披露，截至3月11日的股东数据，AMC院线总共有320万个人投资者股东，持股比例达到总股本的80%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ceb1a75b4850b07fa978d115c95dc\" tg-width=\"2492\" tg-height=\"1066\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>有市场观点认为，AMC Investor Connect是公司与散户建立联系的战略部署。该平台为散户提供独家促销活动，例如免费或打折商品以及独家放映邀请，也包括与董事会主席兼CEO Adam Aron的直接沟通机会。Adam Aron表示：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “这一个新的投资者关系平台将使得公司能够直接与拥有80%股份的散户投资者沟通。公司希望能够不时地向这些投资者提供剧院的特别福利。归根结底，这些投资者是公司的拥有者，而我是在为他们打工。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>几乎从未有哪个美国公司高管像Aron这样欢迎散户势力。不过也几乎没有哪个公司像AMC这样得益于这个群体。</p>\n<p>AMC几个月前还濒临破产。然而，誓要颠覆传统公司价值模型的散户涌了进来，推升了AMC股价，使之成为像GameStop一样的网红股代表。这种狂热让华尔街专业人士困惑不已。Asterisk Advisors的Mark Levin在报告中写道：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “显然基本面是完全不支持这个普通股水平的（对Reddit散户来说却讲得通）。”\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c43156418466e59b13942ce693ed26d7\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>不过，股价大涨并没有改变该公司盈利前景。由于新冠疫情影响尚未消除，分析师稳步下调该公司息税折旧摊销前利润预期，目前预计AMC未来12个月息税折旧摊销前亏损近1亿美元。</p>\n<p>AMC负债上升也加剧了基本面困境。该公司截至今年一季度长期负债升至54亿美元，从2016年的不到20亿美元增长了近两倍。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcd07beab64a842fbd75a64874556f58\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>AMC不予置评。</p>\n<p><b>空头遭暴击</b></p>\n<p>S3 Partners的数据显示，AMC股票的空头仅在上周就亏损约13亿美元，其中单单5月26日一天的亏损就达到2.91亿美元。</p>\n<p>S3 Partners还估算，AMC和GME本周二的大涨让卖空的投资者又损失了8.48亿美元。其中对AMC的做空损失为5.36亿美元，在GME空仓上损失3.12亿美元。今年以来，这两只个股高涨逼空造成的卖空者损失合计约有92.5亿美元。</p>\n<p>值得一提的是，具有超高人气的<b>AMC院线已经处于无视利空的状态</b>。</p>\n<p>在周二公司刚宣布向穆德里克资本（Mudrick Capital）出售2.3亿美元的股票后，当天就有知情人士称<b>穆德里克资本迅速清仓了AMC的股票</b>。即便出现这样的事件，周二AMC院线依然收涨22%。而就在市场惊叹穆德里克资本短短一天获利超千万美元后不到一天，便迅速发现他们“跑得太快”，至少错过了两个亿美元的利润。</p>\n<p>不过与穆德里克资本一样，AMC院线的散户投资者也处于频繁超短线买卖的状态，从上周四开始AMC院线每天的成交额都在百亿美元上方，这一数据甚至稳稳压过身价两万亿美元的苹果公司。</p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC院线单日翻倍，市值一夜暴涨百亿美元，发生了什么？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC院线单日翻倍，市值一夜暴涨百亿美元，发生了什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-03 06:09 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=75428&type=news><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>周三，在市场整体窄幅震荡等待行情催化因素的背景下，美股三大指数小幅收涨，AMC院线等WSB概念股集体暴涨，成为市场焦点。\n推出“爆米花股东福利”的AMC院线盘中暴涨126%，盘中几次熔断，截至收盘，AMC院线涨99.70%，年初至今累积上涨2959.91%。除了AMC院线外，同属WSB概念的高斯电子周三收涨68.61%、3B家居涨62.11%、Express涨36.48%、黑莓涨31.92%。\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=75428&type=news\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=75428&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2140446973","content_text":"周三，在市场整体窄幅震荡等待行情催化因素的背景下，美股三大指数小幅收涨，AMC院线等WSB概念股集体暴涨，成为市场焦点。\n推出“爆米花股东福利”的AMC院线盘中暴涨126%，盘中几次熔断，截至收盘，AMC院线涨99.70%，年初至今累积上涨2959.91%。除了AMC院线外，同属WSB概念的高斯电子周三收涨68.61%、3B家居涨62.11%、Express涨36.48%、黑莓涨31.92%。\nAMC院线启动百万散户招待计划\nAMC院线近期多次对零售投资者主动示好引发了百万散户的“涌泉相报”——短短几个交易日里，公司的股价就从十几美元上蹿至60美元的历史新高，市值升至约330亿美元，超过GameStop约200亿美元的市值。\nAMC院线也不失时机地在周三推出名为“AMC Investor Connect”的投资者回馈计划（注：与日本的股东优待类似），其中包含特别优惠和最新活动，而且注册该计划的散户首次观影时还将获得一大桶免费爆米花。根据公司披露，截至3月11日的股东数据，AMC院线总共有320万个人投资者股东，持股比例达到总股本的80%。\n\n有市场观点认为，AMC Investor Connect是公司与散户建立联系的战略部署。该平台为散户提供独家促销活动，例如免费或打折商品以及独家放映邀请，也包括与董事会主席兼CEO Adam Aron的直接沟通机会。Adam Aron表示：\n\n “这一个新的投资者关系平台将使得公司能够直接与拥有80%股份的散户投资者沟通。公司希望能够不时地向这些投资者提供剧院的特别福利。归根结底，这些投资者是公司的拥有者，而我是在为他们打工。”\n\n几乎从未有哪个美国公司高管像Aron这样欢迎散户势力。不过也几乎没有哪个公司像AMC这样得益于这个群体。\nAMC几个月前还濒临破产。然而，誓要颠覆传统公司价值模型的散户涌了进来，推升了AMC股价，使之成为像GameStop一样的网红股代表。这种狂热让华尔街专业人士困惑不已。Asterisk Advisors的Mark Levin在报告中写道：\n\n “显然基本面是完全不支持这个普通股水平的（对Reddit散户来说却讲得通）。”\n\n\n不过，股价大涨并没有改变该公司盈利前景。由于新冠疫情影响尚未消除，分析师稳步下调该公司息税折旧摊销前利润预期，目前预计AMC未来12个月息税折旧摊销前亏损近1亿美元。\nAMC负债上升也加剧了基本面困境。该公司截至今年一季度长期负债升至54亿美元，从2016年的不到20亿美元增长了近两倍。\n\nAMC不予置评。\n空头遭暴击\nS3 Partners的数据显示，AMC股票的空头仅在上周就亏损约13亿美元，其中单单5月26日一天的亏损就达到2.91亿美元。\nS3 Partners还估算，AMC和GME本周二的大涨让卖空的投资者又损失了8.48亿美元。其中对AMC的做空损失为5.36亿美元，在GME空仓上损失3.12亿美元。今年以来，这两只个股高涨逼空造成的卖空者损失合计约有92.5亿美元。\n值得一提的是，具有超高人气的AMC院线已经处于无视利空的状态。\n在周二公司刚宣布向穆德里克资本（Mudrick Capital）出售2.3亿美元的股票后，当天就有知情人士称穆德里克资本迅速清仓了AMC的股票。即便出现这样的事件，周二AMC院线依然收涨22%。而就在市场惊叹穆德里克资本短短一天获利超千万美元后不到一天，便迅速发现他们“跑得太快”，至少错过了两个亿美元的利润。\n不过与穆德里克资本一样，AMC院线的散户投资者也处于频繁超短线买卖的状态，从上周四开始AMC院线每天的成交额都在百亿美元上方，这一数据甚至稳稳压过身价两万亿美元的苹果公司。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":654,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}