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陈洪良
2021-07-01
sshyil
Investment strategy of Hong Kong stocks in the second half of the year! Hang Seng Index has a chance to challenge this round of new highs
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Hang Seng Index has a chance to challenge this round of new highs","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154941861","media":"学恒的海外观察","summary":"从成长性看，科创与周期占优;从中报业绩看，周期更佳;从估值看，大金融更有新引力。\n\n摘要\n全球：讨论TAPER尚早，美股依然在慢牛中\n尽管Taper的声音不绝于耳，但靴子落地并非易事：一方面，美国短期","content":"<p>From the perspective of growth, science and technology innovation and cycle dominate; From the interim report performance, the cycle is better; From the valuation point of view, big finance has new attraction.<b>Abstract</b></p><p><b>Global: Early to Discuss TAPER, U.S. Stocks Still in Slow Bull</b></p><p>Although Taper's voice is endless, it is not easy for boots to land: on the one hand, the short-term GDP, CPI, consumption, housing prices and other data in the United States are constantly rising; on the other hand, the decline of real hourly wages, the slow recovery of jobs, the high proportion of stocks in residents' wealth, and the negative impact of the Biden administration's tax increase on corporate investment and recruitment need to be fully considered by the Federal Reserve. Therefore, we don't think Taper is an overnight achievement, and the preliminary judgment will only have a clearer signal in Q4 2021/Q1 2022; The yield of U.S. bonds rose too fast at the beginning of the year, fully digesting the impact of inflation. Although we judge that the yield is still fluctuating upward, we believe that 1.9-2.0% is the threshold for U.S. stocks to turn. Based on the earnings in 2022, below 4,500 points (our target level for this round of US stock bull market), S&P still runs in the valuation framework of the past decade and is not significantly overvalued.</p><p><b>Domestic: The market around the second quarterly report has begun</b></p><p>The upward trend of medium-and long-term loans to enterprises proves that the economic cycle is still expanding. We preliminarily judge that the output (industrial added value year-on-year) and M1 year-on-year will start to rebound in June and July.</p><p>From June, CPI and PPI will converge, meaning that manufacturing earnings will improve. With the gradual upward trend of CPI, the confidence of the market will continue to be improved.</p><p>Taking the past decade as a reference, the current valuation of A shares is not high, and the valuation of most broad-based indexes (2022) is only the average level. Therefore, we believe that in the period of economic cycle expansion, the market is expected to break through the current new high, with a target of 4200-4300 points in the second half of the year.</p><p>From the perspective of growth, science and technology innovation and cycle dominate; From the interim report performance, the cycle is better; From the valuation point of view, big finance has new attraction.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Investment Advice: Long-standing Momentum, Challenging New Highs</b></p><p>We adjust the target range of 31,000-32,000 points of the Hang Seng Index in 2021, which means that the Hang Seng Index has the opportunity to challenge this round of new highs;</p><p>We believe that while the market goes up in the second half of the year, it will also be accompanied by a rotation situation. The sectors with better semi-annual reports or other fundamentals are mainly textiles and clothing, medicine, metals and energy. Secondly, the interim reports of Hang Seng Technology and Big Finance are expected to meet expectations and the stock price is oversold, which will also have obvious valuation repair.</p><p>After the second quarterly report or Q4, the valuation of some sectors is too high, coupled with the uncertainty of taper and funds at the end of the year, which makes it impossible to continuously improve the risk appetite. At this time, we should pay attention to resource stocks whose prices may continue to rise, bank stocks with low valuation, gaming stocks with lagging recovery expectations, telecom operators and local stocks in Hong Kong with less impact on the economic cycle.</p><p><b>Risk warning</b></p><p>The risk of a lower-than-expected macroeconomic recovery, the risk of repeated pandemics, the uncertainty of Sino-US trade relations, and the risk of technology wars.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>1. Global: It's too early to discuss TAPER, and U.S. stocks are still in a slow bull</b></p><p><b>1. By the end of the year, the vaccination rate in some countries will exceed 70%</b></p><p>The global new epidemic situation has recently stabilized at 300,000-400,000 cases per day, a significant decrease compared with the beginning of the year, among which the new cases in major developed countries have decreased significantly compared with the beginning of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ef09015d57bc577bb7a93bb846c2381\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4256b27b5673e8fb532e714b91541b91\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>in May and June, according to the data of our world in data, the vaccination rate (one dose) in some countries has accelerated significantly. At the current rate, before winter, the vaccination rate in most countries with conditions can exceed 70%, that is, the WHO recognized<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>Level of vaccination rate for immunization effects. The rate of vaccination in China is even more alarming. It has now exceeded 1 billion doses, and with 20 million vaccinations per day, it is also expected to reach a vaccination rate of more than 70% by the end of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba455f4b2fc4f3e96e0539d81b0cb3f3\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. The World Bank revised the global GDP growth rate up to 5.6%</b></p><p><b>1) Upward revision of the global economy in 2021</b></p><p>In January, the World Bank forecast global GDP growth to be only 4.1%. In June, the World Bank revised global GDP growth upward to 5.6%, the strongest recovery from a recession in 80 years, driven largely by 6.8% growth in the US and 8.5% growth in China. The IMF is more optimistic, believing that global GDP growth will reach 6% (its forecast at the beginning of the year was 5.15%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/507d0e153840bb4f705f60f90a813461\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Both of them have similar expectations for China's economic growth. The World Bank expects China's GDP growth rate in 2021 to be 8.5%, and the IMF expects it to be 8.4%; The World Bank expects U.S. GDP growth to be 6.8% in 2021, and the IMF expects 6.4%.</p><p><b>2) The GDP gap between China and the United States has narrowed</b></p><p>During the epidemic, China's GDP continued to grow, while the GDP of the United States declined, which narrowed the GDP gap between China and the United States. If the gap is expressed by (United States-China) /United States, the GDP gap between China and the United States was 30% in 2020. The IMF estimates that, regardless of the impact of RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, the GDP gap between China and the United States will narrow to 16% by 2026, which was 60% in 2010 and 40% in 2016.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b444982fe1c0d1748b4110b2b21b14e4\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Against the background of narrowing the GDP gap between the two countries, the U.S. government has frequently released various pressures on China since Biden took office as president of the United States. On June 8, the U.S. Senate passed the U.S. Innovation and Competition Act of 2021, which CNN said is intended to invest more than $200 billion in U.S. technology, science and research to counter China's growing influence.</p><p>On the other hand, the 2021 White Paper on American Enterprises in China released by AmCham-China in June shows that the Chinese market remains a strong attraction for American companies. More than half (52%) of U.S. companies in China mentioned that the number one business opportunity in China was \"the growth of domestic consumption and the rise of an increasingly large wealthy middle class\", more than two-thirds of U.S. companies regarded China as a priority market, and 85% did not intend to relocate manufacturing or procurement processes outside China. The white paper also shows that nearly 61 percent of U.S. companies believe China will continue to open its market to foreign investment. The sense of gain of American enterprises in China has been further enhanced. For example, in the financial field, American companies have obtained the license to carry out all-round business in China; In food and agriculture, China has revised regulations to allow more American products into China, among other things.</p><p><b>3. The US economic cycle is still in the expansion stage</b></p><p><b>1) Enlightenment from the U.S. Economic Framework: Balance between Inflation and Stagflation</b></p><p>In the economic framework of the United States, interest rate policy or personal income is transmitted to consumer expenditure, which takes two or three quarters. Then the rise of consumption will bring about the prosperity of industrial production and services, and the improvement of corporate profits, which will take another one or two quarters.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47a2af46ec117739d1459c097dde5dde\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Then, expecting the upward prosperity in the future, enterprises began to increase capital expenditure, and actively recruited workers (this is after 2-4 quarters), thus pushing inflation upward. At this time, the Federal Reserve intervened against inflation to ensure the healthy development of the economy.</p><p>In this system, if you intervene too late, it may make inflation grow; But if it intervenes too early, it will douse the recovering economy in its cradle. How to judge this rhythm has always been a \"big problem\". On the left side is inflation and on the right side is deflation.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>Must move carefully on the balance beam.</p><p><b>2) Some contradictions in the current U.S. economic data</b></p><p>On the one hand, the prosperity of consumption and output in the United States is undoubtedly on the rise: personal consumption expenditure is on the rise (also attributed to last year's low base), and the consumer confidence index has returned to the best level since the epidemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c984927723e729dc26b3d0bd56102c50\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Manufacturing PMI oscillated upward, with services PMI already surpassing pre-pandemic highs in May.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06899913e56c9f14274fd575748c7073\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The sales of existing houses have been at a new high in ten years year-on-year, and house prices have accelerated. Many media reports in the United States have reported the phenomenon of \"difficult to find a house\" and \"increasing the price of buying a house\" everywhere.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c22aaa51435ed2745ae7fe639f3f719f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, the market's expectations for the macroeconomic data of the United States have been revised upward for several months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/789c9420c8b167c7a431c7aaa52e412c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"251\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/545c4a3e4d8c168ad26cc85898a91521\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But on the other hand, behind the glamorous data, there are also many hidden worries:</p><p><b>One is the decline in real hourly wages.</b>As the real hourly wage determines the real purchasing power of consumers, in this economic recovery, due to the inability of supply-side production capacity to keep up in time and the upward trend of commodity prices caused by the excessive issuance of US dollars, CPI took the lead in strengthening, which made the nominal hourly wage rise and the real hourly wage decline. Historically, real hourly wage, as a reliable leading indicator of American residents' consumption (of course, this is mainly on the premise of relatively stable employment situation), is not clear at present.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5574774b629c3937a2d6c41738554902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, employment recovery still needs to be observed.</b>Covid has cost 22 million jobs in the U.S., according to the U.S. Department of Labor. So far, it has only recovered to pre-pandemic levels of 67%, and there is an 8 million job gap. As recently as April, new non-farm employment in the United States was significantly lower than market expectations, and May only met the low expectations. Some analysts believe that because of the money-casting subsidy, the income of low-income groups when they go to work is equivalent to that of not going to work, which makes some enterprises unable to find employees and finally closes down again. According to CNBC, in the past month, 25 states have announced that they will terminate their additional benefit programs during the pandemic before they officially expire on September 6th. Some states will stop paying additional federal unemployment benefits as early as June 12. These states are all led by Republican governors. They say additional unemployment benefits are causing unemployed workers to prefer to stay at home rather than look for work, which makes it difficult for companies to recruit workers to fill badly needed vacancies. Bradley, chief policy officer of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, argued: \"The disappointing jobs report clearly shows that paying people who don't work is dampening what should have been a stronger job market.\" The impact of stopping federal additional unemployment benefits on subsequent employment is overall positive, but the effect needs to be tracked.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28525bd8d2b0a12655fff844c305910b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The third is about the expectation that the Biden administration will raise taxes.</b>While we expect this plan to be quite difficult to implement, and in order to secure midterm elections, it is unlikely that the Democrats will do much on this issue before the 2022 midterm elections. However, the expectation of tax increases will affect the human resource planning of businesses to some extent. Clark, president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said there is a disagreement with the administration on the need to raise business taxes: \"The proposed tax increase plan will greatly harm American businesses and American working people. This is certainly not the time to put new barriers to economic recovery. The administration is right to advocate for infrastructure, and we want to do it with the government, but there are other ways to fund infrastructure plans.\" The U.S. Chamber of Commerce said it supports infrastructure investment, but prefers funding primarily through infrastructure royalties. McGinty, a spokesman for the American Retail Federation, said the organization opposed raising funds for infrastructure plans through corporate tax increases in a report to the U.S. Senate Finance Committee. In addition, McGinty, spokesman of the American Retail Industry Leaders Association, also said that the association's position against raising taxes on businesses has not changed.</p><p><b>Fourth, the proportion of the US stock market in residents' assets is too high, and the decline of the stock market will seriously dampen residents' consumption enthusiasm.</b>There are two types of wealth related to stock assets of American residents, one is direct investment, and the other is through pension plans (finally entering the stock market and bond market). Both of them account for an astonishing 57% of residents' wealth (at the highest level in history). Compared with Chinese residents' wealth, the largest category is real estate, which accounts for only 24% of American residents' assets. Historically, consumption and the stock market are mutually causal: the stock market falls → residents' wealth shrinks → consumption is more conservative → corporate profits fall → the stock market falls. At present, the total market capitalization of U.S. stocks is about $45 trillion, which is about 202% of the expected 2021 GDP of the United States ($22.2 trillion). According to Rastved's estimates in The Inescapable Economic Cycle, a decline in the stock market will have an impact coefficient of about 4% on GDP. That is, if the U.S. stock market falls by 20% (this is only a Kitchen cycle level adjustment), the negative effect of a single stock market decline on GDP can reach 202%*20%*4% = -1.6%, regardless of the extended effects such as shrinking capital expenditure, inventory impairment and real estate decline of enterprises. Generally speaking, in a large stock market decline (such as 1/3 to half), and the real estate market is also affected (such as 1/5 to 1/3), the comprehensive impact on the GDP of that year is about-15%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/382235a0385c82b548308426f12a5ca7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Fed Chairman Powell said at an FOMC press conference in April that the Fed \"<b>Will ensure that monetary policy continues to provide strong support for the economy until the recovery is completed</b>”。 Currently, investors expect the Fed to announce a QE taper at the annual meeting of global central banks at Jackson Hole in August. The latest Reuters survey also shows that the Federal Reserve may announce its strategy to cut its large-scale bond purchase program in August or September, but it is not expected to start cutting its monthly purchases until early next year.</p><p>And we still repeat this view: In the current U.S. economy, once TAPER is implemented, the situation of moderate recovery will likely end. Therefore, it is necessary for the Federal Reserve to continue to pay cautious attention to inflation (Q2/Q3) and employment data (June, July and August), especially the impact on employment after some state governments cancelled the bailout in July and August.</p><p><b>3) The flattening of U.S. debt shows that the market's expectation of inflation has been digested</b></p><p>Although the CPI and core CPI of the United States both reached a new high in May, the inflation expectation (10-year U.S. bond yield-10-year TIPS yield) fell, and the 10-year Treasury Bond yield of the United States oscillated flat, which all shows that the expectation of inflation has been digested by the market, and the next step is to continue to track the inflation level in the third quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcb17db63daecb5e450b90e31da6b24d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>We have quantitatively measured the key positions where the upward trend of U.S. bond yields in this round will have an impact on the stock market. The method is to observe the impact of the number and magnitude of rate hike in the historical interest rate hike cycle (the target interest rate of federal funds in this round remains unchanged, which is slightly different from history, but the upward trend of market interest rate is the same) on the peak of the stock market. We measured the result: The U.S. bull market came to an end when the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 1.9-2.0%.</p><p><b>4. The upward trend of commodities will continue</b></p><p>We are pleased to recall that in the annual strategy report released in 2019 before the launch of this round of commodities, we mentioned: \"The global mid-cycle-real estate cycle and commodity cycle are all in the expansion stage, and the short-cycle-Kitchen cycle has also hit a low point and turned to expansion. The combined resonance of the mid-cycle and the short-cycle will promote the rise of cyclical asset prices\". So far, our judgment that the global economy is in an expansion phase remains unchanged.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f69ac8fd633ab057903ac98c0ff9bd7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As the average expansion time of commodity cycle is 24-26 months, the upward trend of this round of commodities will end in the second quarter of 2022. In addition, we compared the relationship between commodity index and S&P 500. Similar to A shares, S&P 500 is ahead of CRB index by about 0-3 months (just like Shanghai Composite Index is ahead of PPI). Therefore, we preliminarily calculate that US stocks will rise to around the first quarter of 2022.</p><p>U.S. stocks are still running in the valuation framework of the past decade</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c409da511bbb7b9010d35341123123e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>With the upward revision of economic expectations, the S&P 500's net income was also revised upward. At present, the market expects that the growth rate of S&P 500EPS from 2021 to 2022 will be 40% and 9% respectively; The ROE was 19.7% and 19.4%, respectively; EPS was 194,211, respectively (compared to 170,197 at the end of last year when we wrote our strategy report, which was 14% and 7% higher, respectively).</p><p>As we have introduced, at present, the United States maintains a lower yield on U.S. bonds than before the epidemic. According to the PE ceiling of S&P 500 in 2008-2019, 21.4-21.5 times PE (excluding the extreme impact of the 2008 financial crisis and the 20-year epidemic), if the target price of S&P 500 is given, we can get:</p><p>SPX Price Target 2021=194*21.4=4151 pips;</p><p>If you take into account the valuation switch to 2022, you get:</p><p>SPX Price Target 2022=211*21.4=4515 pips;</p><p><b>Therefore, we believe that this year and next, before the S&P 500 fluctuates up to 4,500 points, US stocks will still run in the valuation channel of the last decade without being greatly overvalued. Of course, when talking about overvaluation, we must discuss U.S. bond yields, TAPER and QE, and the position of the economic cycle, which we have explained earlier.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c227e1cc13a265388c5f10645737f46\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, A shares: the market around the second quarterly report has begun</b></p><p><b>1. The upward trend of medium-and long-term loans to enterprises proves that the economy is still expanding</b></p><p>In May, M2 stopped declining year-on-year, and began to show the characteristics of stable bottom. Medium-and long-term loans continued to grow very steadily, indicating strong demand for manufacturing credit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d13ac00c05eda5dbb8e68726c0f726d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Dismantling social finance subjects, the recent obvious decline is local government special bonds, corporate bonds and trust loans. The downward background of corporate bonds is that this year, the central government required to resolve the hidden debt risks of local governments, and multi-departments jointly took action to strengthen supervision and curb the growth of hidden debt; This year, local government special bonds have decreased slightly by 280 billion yuan compared with last year. Referring to the recent new local government debt limit of 4,267.6 billion yuan issued by the Ministry of Finance in 2021 (including 800 billion yuan in general debt limit and 3,467.6 billion yuan in special debt limit), it is lower than the previous budget of 4,47 billion yuan approved by the Fourth Session of the 13th National People's Congress (including 3,75 billion yuan in special debt limit); The decline of trust loans is inevitable. This year is the last year of the transition period of the new asset management regulations, and the trust industry is still looking for transformation and innovation. From this point of view, this year's social financing is characterized by: the financing demand of government and local financing platforms has slowed down, the financing of real estate/trust has also been suppressed, and the loan demand of manufacturing industry is strong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f845a54283fd13c73447217a3dbe8b53\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>We estimate that M1 year-on-year and industrial added value year-on-year have either touched or approached the low of the whole year and will rise with the upward trend of the economic cycle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/533c0d730d72abbfdc5353dd14f6d770\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>M2 does not count fiscal deposits (May last year coincided with the peak period of fiscal deposits), so we think that the decline of social financing is more temporary than that of M2.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a462618d750770032e117dc050724701\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, domestic funds are relatively loose, MLF has not gone up since the epidemic last year, the yield of wealth management continues to decline, and the credit spread declines (AA +, AAA is more obvious than AA).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/403868625533e7493faa8e6a393fe62e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Starting from June, the gap between CPI and PPI will converge</b></p><p>In the first half of this year, PPI was under great upward pressure. During the tracking process in the previous months, we also felt that the upward trend of PPI repeatedly exceeded market expectations. Last May was the lowest point of PPI for the whole year, so in terms of form, since June, PPI has undoubtedly begun to decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f3ed224ba421077d14bb149aaadba9b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since the beginning of this year, CPI has been dragged down by the downward trend of pig prices this year, but according to subject observation, transportation and communication, education, culture and entertainment, housing, as well as food, tobacco and alcohol have all begun to improve significantly. We estimate that CPI will remain resilient and steadily upward in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e7d6b010c508c34a936f1c6c30c502f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But on the other hand, the downward trend of PPI represents the slowdown of inflationary pressure, which is conducive to the earnings repair of the manufacturing industry. But this does not mean that inflationary pressures are gone. Because in a commodity cycle, with the improvement of demand, the production capacity on the supply side can't be significantly expanded in a short period of time, and the current inventory of cyclical products is generally not high. With the de-inventory, there is still room for further upward movement in commodity prices.</p><p><b>3. The valuation of A shares is not high, and the plate where the interim report is expected to be updated is locked</b></p><p><b>1) On the whole, the current valuation of A shares is not high</b></p><p>Let's take the valuation level of the past ten years as a reference to observe the current valuation level of A shares.</p><p>The current valuation of Wind Full A is 20.3 times. If the valuation switching is considered, the PE level in 2022 will drop back to the average with the growth of performance. CSI 300 is currently valued at 14.5 times. If the valuation switching is considered, the PE level will also fall back to the average level in 2022 with the growth of performance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85ce88cba8d0e32d600ac041e40ba96e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The current valuation of Shanghai Composite Index is 14.2 times, which is at the average level. If the valuation switching is considered, the corresponding PE in 2022 will be lower than the average; The current valuation level of GEM is slightly higher by 59.0 times, but it is also below +1 standard deviation. Because the growth rate of GEM is higher, its corresponding PE in 2022 is lower than the average, taking into account the valuation switching.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00c5057cc381cafd3af77d267f468623\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The current valuation of CSI 500 is at a low level among all major broad-based indices, with a valuation of only-1 standard deviation on average, which is less than-1 standard deviation if the growth rate in 2022 is taken into account; The SSE 50 valuation level is at a relatively high level, slightly above the historical average given the growth in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6717030e153e34f4d57acbfb01d4b00\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>To sum up, from the ten-year cycle, the current valuation level of A shares is not high. Once the valuation switch is considered in the second half of the year, the current valuation is only the historical average. If we measure the upside of A shares, we measure it at the highest level of 16-16.2 times PE of the customary Shanghai Composite Index at the beginning of the year. Considering the factors including the valuation switch in 2022, the estimated upside target range is about 4200-4300 points. The above consideration is based on the fact that the expansion of the economic cycle has not yet ended, and the main driving force for the upward trend comes from performance improvement rather than valuation expansion.<b>From the perspective of broad-based index, CSI 500 is more attractive than CSI 300 and SSE 50.</b></p><p><b>2) From the perspective of growth, the performance growth rate of science and technology innovation and cycle this year is more obvious</b></p><p>From the observation of performance growth rate, this year's growth rate of science and technology innovation ranks first in the broad-based index, with a growth rate of 70% in 21 years compared with 20 years, followed by small market capitalization companies, National Securities 2000, CSI 1000, CSI 500 and GEM 50. Combined with the current valuation level and rebound, science and technology innovation board and CSI 500 are more cost-effective. In style, what still can't be ignored this year is the profit growth rate of cyclical industries, which is better than growth (74%) by 82% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a8427a42d4a8c2422e6397f9c3383f8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From the perspective of industry, in addition to last year's low-base transportation, media, consumer services and retail, nonferrous metals and black are the top industries this year, and computers, basic chemicals, electronics and automobiles are also the top industries.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7aa967da566899dc1b91a298dc9aa22\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3) From the perspective of expected adjustment, cyclical industries are more dominant</b></p><p>After the annual report (April 30th), Kechuang 50 and CSI 500 are expected to have the largest upward revision among all broad-based indexes, and the Shanghai Composite Index is also upward revised by 1%, ranking third. GEM, CSI 1000 and National Securities 2000 ranked in the bottom three respectively. Compared with styles, the performance of cyclical industries has the largest upward trend, while the growth has the largest downward revision. This is slightly contradictory to our observation in the previous table, that is, although growth stocks have the fastest growth rate, the performance has been revised downward since the annual report, indicating that the current upward trend of growth stocks is differentiated rather than universal, while the decline of cyclical industries is temporary. The second quarterly report is approaching, and we think the opportunities of cyclical industries will be more certain.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18b1a8759585b1503e5b5c338732eb47\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After comparing the annual report, the performance adjustment rankings are compared by industries as follows: steel, consumer services, automobiles, transportation, petroleum and petrochemicals rank first, machinery, non-ferrous metals, coal and light industry manufacturing are also raised to a certain extent, while commerce and retail, media, comprehensive, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, communication and computer rank last.</p><p>In this ranking, we think it is still necessary to discuss the prices of commodities. For example, if the prices of basic metals, coal and crude oil go up, it will bring profit pressure to the middle reaches of industries with sensitive raw materials such as steel, automobiles, machinery, light industry, chemicals and home appliances. If the prices in the upstream of the cycle are stable or downward, the profit growth rate of the above industries may continue to be revised upward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eab95b14ca44af05bd3574782eb630fb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Our attitude is: the expansion of this economic cycle is not over yet, and the incentive for the upward trend of commodity prices: the core variable of relatively limited capacity expansion for 7-10 consecutive years has not changed. Assuming that the downstream output continues to go up, the upward pressure of upstream raw materials will always exist. Therefore,<b>In terms of profit forecast of the sector, we tend to think that the interim results of non-ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and coal in the upstream of the partial cycle are more certain.</b></p><p><b>4) From the perspective of valuation, the valuation repair potential of big finance should not be ignored</b></p><p>According to the understanding of the economic cycle, when the CPI goes up and the market yield goes up, it is expected that the financial industry will be affected by the increase of interest spread and its profit will improve. Therefore, big finance with low valuation is expected to be repaired in the second half of the year. We observe the primary industry in the PE/PB quantile matrix. At present, the PB valuation of bank stocks is at the lowest level in history, and we expect that the ROE of the banking industry in Q2 this year will increase relatively obviously year-on-year (compared with the expected increase from Q2 last year). The insurance industry's premium income is poor this year, but because the sector has not performed in the past two years, the poor fundamentals have been fully digested in the stock price, and there is room for valuation repair in the second half of the year. Brokers have experienced a year of weak shock since July last year, and the current valuation is also very low (together with insurance below 10% of the historical quantile). Considering the advancement of the domestic registration system tide and the better asset quality of securities firms than insurance and banks, we believe that this sector will also perform well in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb102b56576b2cd57a6eae54e0b220\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Comprehensive growth, expected adjustment and valuation,<b>We are optimistic about science and technology innovation board, upstream cycle and big finance as the first choice recommendations in the second half of the year. At the same time, according to the previous calculation, the Shanghai Stock Exchange is expected to rise to the height of 4200-4300 points within the year.</b></p><p><b>3. Hong Kong stocks: gaining momentum for a long time, challenging new highs</b></p><p><b>1. Hang Seng Index is expected to break through this round of new highs in the second half of 2021</b></p><p>The market expects that the EPS growth rate of Hang Seng Index (HSI) will be 11% in 2021 and-2% in 2022. This performance is not as good as that of A shares, but its revenue side is not bad, with a year-on-year growth rate of 19% and 12%. The goal of some large Internet companies this year is still to pursue the growth rate of income rather than the profit end, which is part of the reason. In addition, the real estate and financial parts of the Hang Seng Index account for a relatively high proportion, which also drags down the growth of profits to some extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47d2c33a8ab907c4dbbc675ba9d18aff\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The chart below is the PB swing range of the Hang Seng Index (HSI) valuation over history. We use this to calculate the target level of Hang Seng Index in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecfb432d4084946f04aa13b02bf99f2e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the previous report, we explained that because the stability of net assets is better (compared with EPS and Dividend) from the historical volatility, we usually consider PB valuation or Dividend rate when predicting the low or high of Hang Seng Index. We use the increase in PB at each Kitchen cycle expansion and take the median to calculate the PB upper limit of the Hang Seng Index in the second half of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1790400270c6074c7d80d6f82d5782e6\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since 2002, the PB expansion of HSI in each Kitchen cycle has been 49%, 85%, 74%, 29% and 63% respectively, with a median of 63% and an average of 60%. We get that the PB cap of the Hang Seng Index in the second half of the year is 1.39 times.</p><p>PB2021 upper limit =0.87* (1+60%) =1.39</p><p>According to analysts' estimates of net assets of 21,784 points and 23,387 points in 2021-2022, the target level for the HSI is:</p><p>Neutral: 21784 (BPS2021) *1.39=30,374 points;</p><p>Optimistic (considering the valuation switch to 2022): 23,387 (BPS2022) *1.39=32,610 points.</p><p><b>Therefore, we judge that the target price of Hang Seng Index will run around 31,000-32,000 points in the second half of the year, that is, it has the potential to hit a new high in this round.</b></p><p><b>Review of the trend in the first half of the year</b></p><p>At the beginning of the year, we summarized five major directions in the Summary of Hong Kong Stocks in 2020: \"Looking forward to 2021, the direction of finding excess returns may be: 1. The new economy is still the main battlefield, especially the opportunity that the investment targets under the interference of anti-monopoly policies and U.S. policies will\" panic-wrong-kill-new high \"; 2. Sub-new shares will bring more investment clues; 3. The upward trend of risk appetite will help the valuation of large and small market capitalization converge; 4. With the recovery of the epidemic situation, the procyclical plate will narrow the performance difference between the plates; 5. The landing of the boots of the US ban on investment will bring opportunities for valuation repair of the listed companies. \"</p><p><b>review In the first half of this year, Hong Kong stocks went through three stages: rising, falling and rebounding.</b></p><p>The first stage is before the Spring Festival, when technology stocks and biotechnology stocks take the lead. At the highest, the Hang Seng Technology Index reached a 29% increase;</p><p>The second stage is from the Spring Festival to the beginning of May. Under the rapid rise of U.S. bond yields and the influence of Internet antitrust, the Hang Seng Technology Index pullback/retracement sharply, with the yield falling from 29% to-11%, and the Hang Seng Index falling below 28,000 points;</p><p>The third stage is from late May to June. With the stability of the yield of U.S. bonds and the continuous absorption of many influences of antitrust by the market, the major indexes began to rebound. The best performer was the biotechnology sector (25%), followed by local stocks in Hong Kong (9%), followed by Southbound (7%), with the HSCEI and Hang Seng Technology underperforming the Hang Seng Index.</p><p>1) From the perspective of mainland investors, Hong Kong stocks are a supplement to the A-share market, and Hang Seng Technology and Hang Seng Biotechnology are the two major tracks that investors are most concerned about. Last year, Hang Seng Technology's large increase, coupled with the influence of antitrust, brought some investors to take profits, while Hang Seng Biotechnology took over the baton and performed well. We believe that in the long run, the new economy will still be the main battlefield, and Hang Seng Technology and Biotechnology will perform well. In May, E Fund<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03032\">Hang Seng Technology ETF</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03088\">China Hang Seng Technology</a>ETF, Dacheng Hang Seng Technology ETF, Huaan Hang Seng Technology ETF, Huatai-PineBridge CSOP Hang Seng Technology ETF, Boshi Hang Seng Technology ETF and Harvest Hang Seng Technology ETF have all been released. Mainland investors can buy Hang Seng Technology Index through these ETFs, thus solving the similar problem that Hong Kong stocks don't cover<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The investment restrictions of a large number of stocks such as Baidu, JD.COM and Bilibili.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68eb45ddb4ce3535a01e50d120d05fbb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2) From the perspective of style, it can be seen that since the beginning of the year, if it has outperformed the Hang Seng Index, in terms of style, the positions are required to be concentrated in Hang Seng small-cap stocks, small-and medium-cap stocks and medium-cap stocks, rather than large-cap stocks and medium-and large-cap stocks. At present, the valuation of Hang Seng large-cap stocks and Hang Seng small-cap stocks is still converging. According to historical statistics, when the PB difference between them turns positive, it is the end point of valuation correction (and often the end point of bull market), which also shows that in the current market, opportunities far outweigh risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/243c73a9ab5bd7175cf2bbb9696c2a90\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>3) From the perspective of industry, in addition to the medical sector, the upstream of this year's cycle shines brightly. Among them, the performance of the energy industry ranked first, the raw materials industry ranked third, and the comprehensive industry and Hang Seng Industry also performed well. Lower-ranked sectors are essential consumption, information technology and finance. We are still very optimistic about resource products. As the prices of bulk commodities have risen greatly compared with last year, for example, the price of crude oil has risen to a new high since the epidemic, the CRB index has risen by 50% year-on-year, the copper price has risen by 93% year-on-year, and the aluminum price has risen by 65% year-on-year. Therefore, there is a high probability that the second quarterly reports of these sectors have a good quarterly performance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f39b662e4346eb7fe12c2a1c4e0ee3a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>4) According to the industry performance statistics of 524 companies in Hong Kong Stock Connect, coal has increased astonishingly, followed by iron and steel, basic chemicals, medicine, textiles and clothing, media, non-ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and the bottom-ranked sectors are mainly electric power equipment, building materials, catering and tourism, national defense and military industry, non-bank finance, home appliances, automobiles, comprehensive, food and beverage and other industries.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f41709bcfaf17d58d7bc64db1f58f10\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>5) From the perspective of the banned investment list, the income in the first half of the year is gratifying. We judged at the beginning of the year that the investment ban company would perform well this year. As of June 2021, the average gain of companies on the ban list was 35%, and the median was 19%, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index. Nevertheless, we believe that many of these companies, such as telecom operators and oil companies, are still valued at low levels and have considerable upside.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb224b98db6f930b71d86e0064aa51e2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1068\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Changes in market expectations: cycle dominance, catering/computer downward adjustment</b></p><p>Profit expectation: Compared with before and after the annual report, the net profit expectation of steel, military industry, petroleum and petrochemical, banking, home appliances, electronic components, construction, non-bank finance and other industries in 2021 is revised upward, while the performance of catering and tourism, computers, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, machinery, building materials, food and beverage, commerce and retail, communication and media sectors is revised downward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54a90ee526b9ce63212c201fa34bcf95\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Revenue expectation: Compared with before and after the annual report, the 2021 revenue expectation of several industries, such as national defense and military industry, steel, building materials, home appliances, coal, automobiles, power equipment, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, electronic components and transportation, was revised upward; The revenue forecast of catering, tourism, computer, media and other industries is revised downward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e9b63b0b8664d387a63e0adadb04454\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Valuation comparison: textile and clothing hit a new high, and real estate industry chain hit a new low</b></p><p>Compared with the data of the last five years, the current valuation of Hong Kong Stock Connect is 24% (median), among which textile and clothing, steel, basic chemicals, petroleum and petrochemical sectors are higher, while real estate, construction, building materials, light manufacturing, non-bank finance, media, catering and tourism, home appliances, transportation and other industries are significantly lower than the average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebbf6b4ade68ddd8330d2405d7ca52b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Capital inflow/outflow in recent months: some midstream are still inflowing, indicating that the market is still in a bull market</p><p>Judging from the recent capital inflow, many sectors in the middle reaches have further increased their positions, while the big finance and upstream cycle are temporarily weak. In fact, this structure is more indicative of the economic recovery is still on the way rather than the end. At the end of the bull market, the situation should be the opposite: that is, the midstream outflows, while the big financial and cyclical upstream funds accelerate the inflow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfeea16da7ba61796acf24bcae1f0cb2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Investment advice</b></p><p>1. On the whole, when the CPI goes up, the low valuation will be repaired to a certain extent. Such as big finance, real estate, public utilities and telecom operators. Comparatively speaking, we think big finance is better. The reason is that a) banks and securities firms have made a large provision in 2020, and this year's performance has improved more obviously year-on-year; b) they are undervalued; c) Widening interest spreads have a boost to their earnings expectations; The cost of acquiring land in the real estate industry this year is relatively high, which is manifested by a higher degree of land premium, and the cost of construction and installation is also higher at a high level of commodities. Therefore, we think that although the valuation of real estate companies is low at present, their attractiveness is slightly less than that of companies in the industrial chain. The development of the construction industry is subject to the scale of government investment. At present, their future growth rate will further slow down;</p><p>2. As far as the second quarterly report is concerned, cyclical industries, especially companies in the upstream of the cycle, are more likely to exceed expectations. Petroleum, coal, non-ferrous metals and other sectors will perform better with the high (or even further upward) commodity prices. Here, the midstream sectors such as automobiles, machinery, electronics and home appliances may rise first and then fall. The reason is that the upward trend of commodity prices in the late stage of economic expansion leads to the narrowing of their profits, and the transmission of prices to the downstream is not as easy as that in the early and mid-stage of economic expansion;</p><p>3. In this round of economic cycle, due to the comprehensive impact of epidemic situation and economic transformation (double circulation), consumer stocks represented by Hang Seng Technology, biotechnology and brand clothing, especially those companies that exist uniquely in Hong Kong stocks, will show good investment value in the past and future. At present, Hang Seng Technology needs to rebound. We believe that the pressure of antitrust has been fully digested in the stock price in the first half of the year. The current valuation of biotechnology/medical devices/textiles and clothing is not low, but there are short-term catalytic factors, policy or performance. We think their trend is similar to the middle reaches, and Q3 will still perform well, while Q4 will become less attractive because of its high valuation.</p><p>To sum up, we believe that big finance, upstream cycle and Hang Seng Technology are the three major directions we are optimistic about in the second half of the year. In addition, new energy, semiconductors, biopharmaceuticals, textiles and apparel will also be trend opportunities before and after the semi-annual report. Due to the repeated epidemic, the recovery of the gaming sector will take time, and it is expected that there will be obvious opportunities in Q4.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99730b5306b832b0265537f4b7424a7d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>V. Risk warning</b></p><p>The risk of a lower-than-expected macroeconomic recovery, the risk of repeated pandemics, the uncertainty of Sino-US trade relations, and the risk of technology wars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b6b690532d93e57e2dac2a054def226\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>This article is selected from \"Xueheng's Overseas Observations\", author: Wang Xueheng; Zhitong Finance Editor: Zhuang Lijia.</b></p>","source":"w19319","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investment strategy of Hong Kong stocks in the second half of the year! Hang Seng Index has a chance to challenge this round of new highs</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestment strategy of Hong Kong stocks in the second half of the year! Hang Seng Index has a chance to challenge this round of new highs\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">学恒的海外观察</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 09:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>From the perspective of growth, science and technology innovation and cycle dominate; From the interim report performance, the cycle is better; From the valuation point of view, big finance has new attraction.<b>Abstract</b></p><p><b>Global: Early to Discuss TAPER, U.S. Stocks Still in Slow Bull</b></p><p>Although Taper's voice is endless, it is not easy for boots to land: on the one hand, the short-term GDP, CPI, consumption, housing prices and other data in the United States are constantly rising; on the other hand, the decline of real hourly wages, the slow recovery of jobs, the high proportion of stocks in residents' wealth, and the negative impact of the Biden administration's tax increase on corporate investment and recruitment need to be fully considered by the Federal Reserve. Therefore, we don't think Taper is an overnight achievement, and the preliminary judgment will only have a clearer signal in Q4 2021/Q1 2022; The yield of U.S. bonds rose too fast at the beginning of the year, fully digesting the impact of inflation. Although we judge that the yield is still fluctuating upward, we believe that 1.9-2.0% is the threshold for U.S. stocks to turn. Based on the earnings in 2022, below 4,500 points (our target level for this round of US stock bull market), S&P still runs in the valuation framework of the past decade and is not significantly overvalued.</p><p><b>Domestic: The market around the second quarterly report has begun</b></p><p>The upward trend of medium-and long-term loans to enterprises proves that the economic cycle is still expanding. We preliminarily judge that the output (industrial added value year-on-year) and M1 year-on-year will start to rebound in June and July.</p><p>From June, CPI and PPI will converge, meaning that manufacturing earnings will improve. With the gradual upward trend of CPI, the confidence of the market will continue to be improved.</p><p>Taking the past decade as a reference, the current valuation of A shares is not high, and the valuation of most broad-based indexes (2022) is only the average level. Therefore, we believe that in the period of economic cycle expansion, the market is expected to break through the current new high, with a target of 4200-4300 points in the second half of the year.</p><p>From the perspective of growth, science and technology innovation and cycle dominate; From the interim report performance, the cycle is better; From the valuation point of view, big finance has new attraction.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Investment Advice: Long-standing Momentum, Challenging New Highs</b></p><p>We adjust the target range of 31,000-32,000 points of the Hang Seng Index in 2021, which means that the Hang Seng Index has the opportunity to challenge this round of new highs;</p><p>We believe that while the market goes up in the second half of the year, it will also be accompanied by a rotation situation. The sectors with better semi-annual reports or other fundamentals are mainly textiles and clothing, medicine, metals and energy. Secondly, the interim reports of Hang Seng Technology and Big Finance are expected to meet expectations and the stock price is oversold, which will also have obvious valuation repair.</p><p>After the second quarterly report or Q4, the valuation of some sectors is too high, coupled with the uncertainty of taper and funds at the end of the year, which makes it impossible to continuously improve the risk appetite. At this time, we should pay attention to resource stocks whose prices may continue to rise, bank stocks with low valuation, gaming stocks with lagging recovery expectations, telecom operators and local stocks in Hong Kong with less impact on the economic cycle.</p><p><b>Risk warning</b></p><p>The risk of a lower-than-expected macroeconomic recovery, the risk of repeated pandemics, the uncertainty of Sino-US trade relations, and the risk of technology wars.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>1. Global: It's too early to discuss TAPER, and U.S. stocks are still in a slow bull</b></p><p><b>1. By the end of the year, the vaccination rate in some countries will exceed 70%</b></p><p>The global new epidemic situation has recently stabilized at 300,000-400,000 cases per day, a significant decrease compared with the beginning of the year, among which the new cases in major developed countries have decreased significantly compared with the beginning of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ef09015d57bc577bb7a93bb846c2381\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4256b27b5673e8fb532e714b91541b91\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>in May and June, according to the data of our world in data, the vaccination rate (one dose) in some countries has accelerated significantly. At the current rate, before winter, the vaccination rate in most countries with conditions can exceed 70%, that is, the WHO recognized<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>Level of vaccination rate for immunization effects. The rate of vaccination in China is even more alarming. It has now exceeded 1 billion doses, and with 20 million vaccinations per day, it is also expected to reach a vaccination rate of more than 70% by the end of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba455f4b2fc4f3e96e0539d81b0cb3f3\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. The World Bank revised the global GDP growth rate up to 5.6%</b></p><p><b>1) Upward revision of the global economy in 2021</b></p><p>In January, the World Bank forecast global GDP growth to be only 4.1%. In June, the World Bank revised global GDP growth upward to 5.6%, the strongest recovery from a recession in 80 years, driven largely by 6.8% growth in the US and 8.5% growth in China. The IMF is more optimistic, believing that global GDP growth will reach 6% (its forecast at the beginning of the year was 5.15%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/507d0e153840bb4f705f60f90a813461\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Both of them have similar expectations for China's economic growth. The World Bank expects China's GDP growth rate in 2021 to be 8.5%, and the IMF expects it to be 8.4%; The World Bank expects U.S. GDP growth to be 6.8% in 2021, and the IMF expects 6.4%.</p><p><b>2) The GDP gap between China and the United States has narrowed</b></p><p>During the epidemic, China's GDP continued to grow, while the GDP of the United States declined, which narrowed the GDP gap between China and the United States. If the gap is expressed by (United States-China) /United States, the GDP gap between China and the United States was 30% in 2020. The IMF estimates that, regardless of the impact of RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, the GDP gap between China and the United States will narrow to 16% by 2026, which was 60% in 2010 and 40% in 2016.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b444982fe1c0d1748b4110b2b21b14e4\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Against the background of narrowing the GDP gap between the two countries, the U.S. government has frequently released various pressures on China since Biden took office as president of the United States. On June 8, the U.S. Senate passed the U.S. Innovation and Competition Act of 2021, which CNN said is intended to invest more than $200 billion in U.S. technology, science and research to counter China's growing influence.</p><p>On the other hand, the 2021 White Paper on American Enterprises in China released by AmCham-China in June shows that the Chinese market remains a strong attraction for American companies. More than half (52%) of U.S. companies in China mentioned that the number one business opportunity in China was \"the growth of domestic consumption and the rise of an increasingly large wealthy middle class\", more than two-thirds of U.S. companies regarded China as a priority market, and 85% did not intend to relocate manufacturing or procurement processes outside China. The white paper also shows that nearly 61 percent of U.S. companies believe China will continue to open its market to foreign investment. The sense of gain of American enterprises in China has been further enhanced. For example, in the financial field, American companies have obtained the license to carry out all-round business in China; In food and agriculture, China has revised regulations to allow more American products into China, among other things.</p><p><b>3. The US economic cycle is still in the expansion stage</b></p><p><b>1) Enlightenment from the U.S. Economic Framework: Balance between Inflation and Stagflation</b></p><p>In the economic framework of the United States, interest rate policy or personal income is transmitted to consumer expenditure, which takes two or three quarters. Then the rise of consumption will bring about the prosperity of industrial production and services, and the improvement of corporate profits, which will take another one or two quarters.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47a2af46ec117739d1459c097dde5dde\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Then, expecting the upward prosperity in the future, enterprises began to increase capital expenditure, and actively recruited workers (this is after 2-4 quarters), thus pushing inflation upward. At this time, the Federal Reserve intervened against inflation to ensure the healthy development of the economy.</p><p>In this system, if you intervene too late, it may make inflation grow; But if it intervenes too early, it will douse the recovering economy in its cradle. How to judge this rhythm has always been a \"big problem\". On the left side is inflation and on the right side is deflation.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>Must move carefully on the balance beam.</p><p><b>2) Some contradictions in the current U.S. economic data</b></p><p>On the one hand, the prosperity of consumption and output in the United States is undoubtedly on the rise: personal consumption expenditure is on the rise (also attributed to last year's low base), and the consumer confidence index has returned to the best level since the epidemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c984927723e729dc26b3d0bd56102c50\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Manufacturing PMI oscillated upward, with services PMI already surpassing pre-pandemic highs in May.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06899913e56c9f14274fd575748c7073\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The sales of existing houses have been at a new high in ten years year-on-year, and house prices have accelerated. Many media reports in the United States have reported the phenomenon of \"difficult to find a house\" and \"increasing the price of buying a house\" everywhere.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c22aaa51435ed2745ae7fe639f3f719f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, the market's expectations for the macroeconomic data of the United States have been revised upward for several months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/789c9420c8b167c7a431c7aaa52e412c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"251\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/545c4a3e4d8c168ad26cc85898a91521\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But on the other hand, behind the glamorous data, there are also many hidden worries:</p><p><b>One is the decline in real hourly wages.</b>As the real hourly wage determines the real purchasing power of consumers, in this economic recovery, due to the inability of supply-side production capacity to keep up in time and the upward trend of commodity prices caused by the excessive issuance of US dollars, CPI took the lead in strengthening, which made the nominal hourly wage rise and the real hourly wage decline. Historically, real hourly wage, as a reliable leading indicator of American residents' consumption (of course, this is mainly on the premise of relatively stable employment situation), is not clear at present.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5574774b629c3937a2d6c41738554902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, employment recovery still needs to be observed.</b>Covid has cost 22 million jobs in the U.S., according to the U.S. Department of Labor. So far, it has only recovered to pre-pandemic levels of 67%, and there is an 8 million job gap. As recently as April, new non-farm employment in the United States was significantly lower than market expectations, and May only met the low expectations. Some analysts believe that because of the money-casting subsidy, the income of low-income groups when they go to work is equivalent to that of not going to work, which makes some enterprises unable to find employees and finally closes down again. According to CNBC, in the past month, 25 states have announced that they will terminate their additional benefit programs during the pandemic before they officially expire on September 6th. Some states will stop paying additional federal unemployment benefits as early as June 12. These states are all led by Republican governors. They say additional unemployment benefits are causing unemployed workers to prefer to stay at home rather than look for work, which makes it difficult for companies to recruit workers to fill badly needed vacancies. Bradley, chief policy officer of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, argued: \"The disappointing jobs report clearly shows that paying people who don't work is dampening what should have been a stronger job market.\" The impact of stopping federal additional unemployment benefits on subsequent employment is overall positive, but the effect needs to be tracked.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28525bd8d2b0a12655fff844c305910b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The third is about the expectation that the Biden administration will raise taxes.</b>While we expect this plan to be quite difficult to implement, and in order to secure midterm elections, it is unlikely that the Democrats will do much on this issue before the 2022 midterm elections. However, the expectation of tax increases will affect the human resource planning of businesses to some extent. Clark, president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said there is a disagreement with the administration on the need to raise business taxes: \"The proposed tax increase plan will greatly harm American businesses and American working people. This is certainly not the time to put new barriers to economic recovery. The administration is right to advocate for infrastructure, and we want to do it with the government, but there are other ways to fund infrastructure plans.\" The U.S. Chamber of Commerce said it supports infrastructure investment, but prefers funding primarily through infrastructure royalties. McGinty, a spokesman for the American Retail Federation, said the organization opposed raising funds for infrastructure plans through corporate tax increases in a report to the U.S. Senate Finance Committee. In addition, McGinty, spokesman of the American Retail Industry Leaders Association, also said that the association's position against raising taxes on businesses has not changed.</p><p><b>Fourth, the proportion of the US stock market in residents' assets is too high, and the decline of the stock market will seriously dampen residents' consumption enthusiasm.</b>There are two types of wealth related to stock assets of American residents, one is direct investment, and the other is through pension plans (finally entering the stock market and bond market). Both of them account for an astonishing 57% of residents' wealth (at the highest level in history). Compared with Chinese residents' wealth, the largest category is real estate, which accounts for only 24% of American residents' assets. Historically, consumption and the stock market are mutually causal: the stock market falls → residents' wealth shrinks → consumption is more conservative → corporate profits fall → the stock market falls. At present, the total market capitalization of U.S. stocks is about $45 trillion, which is about 202% of the expected 2021 GDP of the United States ($22.2 trillion). According to Rastved's estimates in The Inescapable Economic Cycle, a decline in the stock market will have an impact coefficient of about 4% on GDP. That is, if the U.S. stock market falls by 20% (this is only a Kitchen cycle level adjustment), the negative effect of a single stock market decline on GDP can reach 202%*20%*4% = -1.6%, regardless of the extended effects such as shrinking capital expenditure, inventory impairment and real estate decline of enterprises. Generally speaking, in a large stock market decline (such as 1/3 to half), and the real estate market is also affected (such as 1/5 to 1/3), the comprehensive impact on the GDP of that year is about-15%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/382235a0385c82b548308426f12a5ca7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Fed Chairman Powell said at an FOMC press conference in April that the Fed \"<b>Will ensure that monetary policy continues to provide strong support for the economy until the recovery is completed</b>”。 Currently, investors expect the Fed to announce a QE taper at the annual meeting of global central banks at Jackson Hole in August. The latest Reuters survey also shows that the Federal Reserve may announce its strategy to cut its large-scale bond purchase program in August or September, but it is not expected to start cutting its monthly purchases until early next year.</p><p>And we still repeat this view: In the current U.S. economy, once TAPER is implemented, the situation of moderate recovery will likely end. Therefore, it is necessary for the Federal Reserve to continue to pay cautious attention to inflation (Q2/Q3) and employment data (June, July and August), especially the impact on employment after some state governments cancelled the bailout in July and August.</p><p><b>3) The flattening of U.S. debt shows that the market's expectation of inflation has been digested</b></p><p>Although the CPI and core CPI of the United States both reached a new high in May, the inflation expectation (10-year U.S. bond yield-10-year TIPS yield) fell, and the 10-year Treasury Bond yield of the United States oscillated flat, which all shows that the expectation of inflation has been digested by the market, and the next step is to continue to track the inflation level in the third quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcb17db63daecb5e450b90e31da6b24d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>We have quantitatively measured the key positions where the upward trend of U.S. bond yields in this round will have an impact on the stock market. The method is to observe the impact of the number and magnitude of rate hike in the historical interest rate hike cycle (the target interest rate of federal funds in this round remains unchanged, which is slightly different from history, but the upward trend of market interest rate is the same) on the peak of the stock market. We measured the result: The U.S. bull market came to an end when the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 1.9-2.0%.</p><p><b>4. The upward trend of commodities will continue</b></p><p>We are pleased to recall that in the annual strategy report released in 2019 before the launch of this round of commodities, we mentioned: \"The global mid-cycle-real estate cycle and commodity cycle are all in the expansion stage, and the short-cycle-Kitchen cycle has also hit a low point and turned to expansion. The combined resonance of the mid-cycle and the short-cycle will promote the rise of cyclical asset prices\". So far, our judgment that the global economy is in an expansion phase remains unchanged.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f69ac8fd633ab057903ac98c0ff9bd7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As the average expansion time of commodity cycle is 24-26 months, the upward trend of this round of commodities will end in the second quarter of 2022. In addition, we compared the relationship between commodity index and S&P 500. Similar to A shares, S&P 500 is ahead of CRB index by about 0-3 months (just like Shanghai Composite Index is ahead of PPI). Therefore, we preliminarily calculate that US stocks will rise to around the first quarter of 2022.</p><p>U.S. stocks are still running in the valuation framework of the past decade</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c409da511bbb7b9010d35341123123e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>With the upward revision of economic expectations, the S&P 500's net income was also revised upward. At present, the market expects that the growth rate of S&P 500EPS from 2021 to 2022 will be 40% and 9% respectively; The ROE was 19.7% and 19.4%, respectively; EPS was 194,211, respectively (compared to 170,197 at the end of last year when we wrote our strategy report, which was 14% and 7% higher, respectively).</p><p>As we have introduced, at present, the United States maintains a lower yield on U.S. bonds than before the epidemic. According to the PE ceiling of S&P 500 in 2008-2019, 21.4-21.5 times PE (excluding the extreme impact of the 2008 financial crisis and the 20-year epidemic), if the target price of S&P 500 is given, we can get:</p><p>SPX Price Target 2021=194*21.4=4151 pips;</p><p>If you take into account the valuation switch to 2022, you get:</p><p>SPX Price Target 2022=211*21.4=4515 pips;</p><p><b>Therefore, we believe that this year and next, before the S&P 500 fluctuates up to 4,500 points, US stocks will still run in the valuation channel of the last decade without being greatly overvalued. Of course, when talking about overvaluation, we must discuss U.S. bond yields, TAPER and QE, and the position of the economic cycle, which we have explained earlier.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c227e1cc13a265388c5f10645737f46\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, A shares: the market around the second quarterly report has begun</b></p><p><b>1. The upward trend of medium-and long-term loans to enterprises proves that the economy is still expanding</b></p><p>In May, M2 stopped declining year-on-year, and began to show the characteristics of stable bottom. Medium-and long-term loans continued to grow very steadily, indicating strong demand for manufacturing credit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d13ac00c05eda5dbb8e68726c0f726d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Dismantling social finance subjects, the recent obvious decline is local government special bonds, corporate bonds and trust loans. The downward background of corporate bonds is that this year, the central government required to resolve the hidden debt risks of local governments, and multi-departments jointly took action to strengthen supervision and curb the growth of hidden debt; This year, local government special bonds have decreased slightly by 280 billion yuan compared with last year. Referring to the recent new local government debt limit of 4,267.6 billion yuan issued by the Ministry of Finance in 2021 (including 800 billion yuan in general debt limit and 3,467.6 billion yuan in special debt limit), it is lower than the previous budget of 4,47 billion yuan approved by the Fourth Session of the 13th National People's Congress (including 3,75 billion yuan in special debt limit); The decline of trust loans is inevitable. This year is the last year of the transition period of the new asset management regulations, and the trust industry is still looking for transformation and innovation. From this point of view, this year's social financing is characterized by: the financing demand of government and local financing platforms has slowed down, the financing of real estate/trust has also been suppressed, and the loan demand of manufacturing industry is strong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f845a54283fd13c73447217a3dbe8b53\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>We estimate that M1 year-on-year and industrial added value year-on-year have either touched or approached the low of the whole year and will rise with the upward trend of the economic cycle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/533c0d730d72abbfdc5353dd14f6d770\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>M2 does not count fiscal deposits (May last year coincided with the peak period of fiscal deposits), so we think that the decline of social financing is more temporary than that of M2.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a462618d750770032e117dc050724701\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, domestic funds are relatively loose, MLF has not gone up since the epidemic last year, the yield of wealth management continues to decline, and the credit spread declines (AA +, AAA is more obvious than AA).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/403868625533e7493faa8e6a393fe62e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Starting from June, the gap between CPI and PPI will converge</b></p><p>In the first half of this year, PPI was under great upward pressure. During the tracking process in the previous months, we also felt that the upward trend of PPI repeatedly exceeded market expectations. Last May was the lowest point of PPI for the whole year, so in terms of form, since June, PPI has undoubtedly begun to decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f3ed224ba421077d14bb149aaadba9b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since the beginning of this year, CPI has been dragged down by the downward trend of pig prices this year, but according to subject observation, transportation and communication, education, culture and entertainment, housing, as well as food, tobacco and alcohol have all begun to improve significantly. We estimate that CPI will remain resilient and steadily upward in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e7d6b010c508c34a936f1c6c30c502f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But on the other hand, the downward trend of PPI represents the slowdown of inflationary pressure, which is conducive to the earnings repair of the manufacturing industry. But this does not mean that inflationary pressures are gone. Because in a commodity cycle, with the improvement of demand, the production capacity on the supply side can't be significantly expanded in a short period of time, and the current inventory of cyclical products is generally not high. With the de-inventory, there is still room for further upward movement in commodity prices.</p><p><b>3. The valuation of A shares is not high, and the plate where the interim report is expected to be updated is locked</b></p><p><b>1) On the whole, the current valuation of A shares is not high</b></p><p>Let's take the valuation level of the past ten years as a reference to observe the current valuation level of A shares.</p><p>The current valuation of Wind Full A is 20.3 times. If the valuation switching is considered, the PE level in 2022 will drop back to the average with the growth of performance. CSI 300 is currently valued at 14.5 times. If the valuation switching is considered, the PE level will also fall back to the average level in 2022 with the growth of performance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85ce88cba8d0e32d600ac041e40ba96e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The current valuation of Shanghai Composite Index is 14.2 times, which is at the average level. If the valuation switching is considered, the corresponding PE in 2022 will be lower than the average; The current valuation level of GEM is slightly higher by 59.0 times, but it is also below +1 standard deviation. Because the growth rate of GEM is higher, its corresponding PE in 2022 is lower than the average, taking into account the valuation switching.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00c5057cc381cafd3af77d267f468623\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The current valuation of CSI 500 is at a low level among all major broad-based indices, with a valuation of only-1 standard deviation on average, which is less than-1 standard deviation if the growth rate in 2022 is taken into account; The SSE 50 valuation level is at a relatively high level, slightly above the historical average given the growth in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6717030e153e34f4d57acbfb01d4b00\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>To sum up, from the ten-year cycle, the current valuation level of A shares is not high. Once the valuation switch is considered in the second half of the year, the current valuation is only the historical average. If we measure the upside of A shares, we measure it at the highest level of 16-16.2 times PE of the customary Shanghai Composite Index at the beginning of the year. Considering the factors including the valuation switch in 2022, the estimated upside target range is about 4200-4300 points. The above consideration is based on the fact that the expansion of the economic cycle has not yet ended, and the main driving force for the upward trend comes from performance improvement rather than valuation expansion.<b>From the perspective of broad-based index, CSI 500 is more attractive than CSI 300 and SSE 50.</b></p><p><b>2) From the perspective of growth, the performance growth rate of science and technology innovation and cycle this year is more obvious</b></p><p>From the observation of performance growth rate, this year's growth rate of science and technology innovation ranks first in the broad-based index, with a growth rate of 70% in 21 years compared with 20 years, followed by small market capitalization companies, National Securities 2000, CSI 1000, CSI 500 and GEM 50. Combined with the current valuation level and rebound, science and technology innovation board and CSI 500 are more cost-effective. In style, what still can't be ignored this year is the profit growth rate of cyclical industries, which is better than growth (74%) by 82% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a8427a42d4a8c2422e6397f9c3383f8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From the perspective of industry, in addition to last year's low-base transportation, media, consumer services and retail, nonferrous metals and black are the top industries this year, and computers, basic chemicals, electronics and automobiles are also the top industries.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7aa967da566899dc1b91a298dc9aa22\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3) From the perspective of expected adjustment, cyclical industries are more dominant</b></p><p>After the annual report (April 30th), Kechuang 50 and CSI 500 are expected to have the largest upward revision among all broad-based indexes, and the Shanghai Composite Index is also upward revised by 1%, ranking third. GEM, CSI 1000 and National Securities 2000 ranked in the bottom three respectively. Compared with styles, the performance of cyclical industries has the largest upward trend, while the growth has the largest downward revision. This is slightly contradictory to our observation in the previous table, that is, although growth stocks have the fastest growth rate, the performance has been revised downward since the annual report, indicating that the current upward trend of growth stocks is differentiated rather than universal, while the decline of cyclical industries is temporary. The second quarterly report is approaching, and we think the opportunities of cyclical industries will be more certain.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18b1a8759585b1503e5b5c338732eb47\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After comparing the annual report, the performance adjustment rankings are compared by industries as follows: steel, consumer services, automobiles, transportation, petroleum and petrochemicals rank first, machinery, non-ferrous metals, coal and light industry manufacturing are also raised to a certain extent, while commerce and retail, media, comprehensive, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, communication and computer rank last.</p><p>In this ranking, we think it is still necessary to discuss the prices of commodities. For example, if the prices of basic metals, coal and crude oil go up, it will bring profit pressure to the middle reaches of industries with sensitive raw materials such as steel, automobiles, machinery, light industry, chemicals and home appliances. If the prices in the upstream of the cycle are stable or downward, the profit growth rate of the above industries may continue to be revised upward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eab95b14ca44af05bd3574782eb630fb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Our attitude is: the expansion of this economic cycle is not over yet, and the incentive for the upward trend of commodity prices: the core variable of relatively limited capacity expansion for 7-10 consecutive years has not changed. Assuming that the downstream output continues to go up, the upward pressure of upstream raw materials will always exist. Therefore,<b>In terms of profit forecast of the sector, we tend to think that the interim results of non-ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and coal in the upstream of the partial cycle are more certain.</b></p><p><b>4) From the perspective of valuation, the valuation repair potential of big finance should not be ignored</b></p><p>According to the understanding of the economic cycle, when the CPI goes up and the market yield goes up, it is expected that the financial industry will be affected by the increase of interest spread and its profit will improve. Therefore, big finance with low valuation is expected to be repaired in the second half of the year. We observe the primary industry in the PE/PB quantile matrix. At present, the PB valuation of bank stocks is at the lowest level in history, and we expect that the ROE of the banking industry in Q2 this year will increase relatively obviously year-on-year (compared with the expected increase from Q2 last year). The insurance industry's premium income is poor this year, but because the sector has not performed in the past two years, the poor fundamentals have been fully digested in the stock price, and there is room for valuation repair in the second half of the year. Brokers have experienced a year of weak shock since July last year, and the current valuation is also very low (together with insurance below 10% of the historical quantile). Considering the advancement of the domestic registration system tide and the better asset quality of securities firms than insurance and banks, we believe that this sector will also perform well in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb102b56576b2cd57a6eae54e0b220\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Comprehensive growth, expected adjustment and valuation,<b>We are optimistic about science and technology innovation board, upstream cycle and big finance as the first choice recommendations in the second half of the year. At the same time, according to the previous calculation, the Shanghai Stock Exchange is expected to rise to the height of 4200-4300 points within the year.</b></p><p><b>3. Hong Kong stocks: gaining momentum for a long time, challenging new highs</b></p><p><b>1. Hang Seng Index is expected to break through this round of new highs in the second half of 2021</b></p><p>The market expects that the EPS growth rate of Hang Seng Index (HSI) will be 11% in 2021 and-2% in 2022. This performance is not as good as that of A shares, but its revenue side is not bad, with a year-on-year growth rate of 19% and 12%. The goal of some large Internet companies this year is still to pursue the growth rate of income rather than the profit end, which is part of the reason. In addition, the real estate and financial parts of the Hang Seng Index account for a relatively high proportion, which also drags down the growth of profits to some extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47d2c33a8ab907c4dbbc675ba9d18aff\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The chart below is the PB swing range of the Hang Seng Index (HSI) valuation over history. We use this to calculate the target level of Hang Seng Index in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecfb432d4084946f04aa13b02bf99f2e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the previous report, we explained that because the stability of net assets is better (compared with EPS and Dividend) from the historical volatility, we usually consider PB valuation or Dividend rate when predicting the low or high of Hang Seng Index. We use the increase in PB at each Kitchen cycle expansion and take the median to calculate the PB upper limit of the Hang Seng Index in the second half of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1790400270c6074c7d80d6f82d5782e6\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since 2002, the PB expansion of HSI in each Kitchen cycle has been 49%, 85%, 74%, 29% and 63% respectively, with a median of 63% and an average of 60%. We get that the PB cap of the Hang Seng Index in the second half of the year is 1.39 times.</p><p>PB2021 upper limit =0.87* (1+60%) =1.39</p><p>According to analysts' estimates of net assets of 21,784 points and 23,387 points in 2021-2022, the target level for the HSI is:</p><p>Neutral: 21784 (BPS2021) *1.39=30,374 points;</p><p>Optimistic (considering the valuation switch to 2022): 23,387 (BPS2022) *1.39=32,610 points.</p><p><b>Therefore, we judge that the target price of Hang Seng Index will run around 31,000-32,000 points in the second half of the year, that is, it has the potential to hit a new high in this round.</b></p><p><b>Review of the trend in the first half of the year</b></p><p>At the beginning of the year, we summarized five major directions in the Summary of Hong Kong Stocks in 2020: \"Looking forward to 2021, the direction of finding excess returns may be: 1. The new economy is still the main battlefield, especially the opportunity that the investment targets under the interference of anti-monopoly policies and U.S. policies will\" panic-wrong-kill-new high \"; 2. Sub-new shares will bring more investment clues; 3. The upward trend of risk appetite will help the valuation of large and small market capitalization converge; 4. With the recovery of the epidemic situation, the procyclical plate will narrow the performance difference between the plates; 5. The landing of the boots of the US ban on investment will bring opportunities for valuation repair of the listed companies. \"</p><p><b>review In the first half of this year, Hong Kong stocks went through three stages: rising, falling and rebounding.</b></p><p>The first stage is before the Spring Festival, when technology stocks and biotechnology stocks take the lead. At the highest, the Hang Seng Technology Index reached a 29% increase;</p><p>The second stage is from the Spring Festival to the beginning of May. Under the rapid rise of U.S. bond yields and the influence of Internet antitrust, the Hang Seng Technology Index pullback/retracement sharply, with the yield falling from 29% to-11%, and the Hang Seng Index falling below 28,000 points;</p><p>The third stage is from late May to June. With the stability of the yield of U.S. bonds and the continuous absorption of many influences of antitrust by the market, the major indexes began to rebound. The best performer was the biotechnology sector (25%), followed by local stocks in Hong Kong (9%), followed by Southbound (7%), with the HSCEI and Hang Seng Technology underperforming the Hang Seng Index.</p><p>1) From the perspective of mainland investors, Hong Kong stocks are a supplement to the A-share market, and Hang Seng Technology and Hang Seng Biotechnology are the two major tracks that investors are most concerned about. Last year, Hang Seng Technology's large increase, coupled with the influence of antitrust, brought some investors to take profits, while Hang Seng Biotechnology took over the baton and performed well. We believe that in the long run, the new economy will still be the main battlefield, and Hang Seng Technology and Biotechnology will perform well. In May, E Fund<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03032\">Hang Seng Technology ETF</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03088\">China Hang Seng Technology</a>ETF, Dacheng Hang Seng Technology ETF, Huaan Hang Seng Technology ETF, Huatai-PineBridge CSOP Hang Seng Technology ETF, Boshi Hang Seng Technology ETF and Harvest Hang Seng Technology ETF have all been released. Mainland investors can buy Hang Seng Technology Index through these ETFs, thus solving the similar problem that Hong Kong stocks don't cover<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The investment restrictions of a large number of stocks such as Baidu, JD.COM and Bilibili.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68eb45ddb4ce3535a01e50d120d05fbb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2) From the perspective of style, it can be seen that since the beginning of the year, if it has outperformed the Hang Seng Index, in terms of style, the positions are required to be concentrated in Hang Seng small-cap stocks, small-and medium-cap stocks and medium-cap stocks, rather than large-cap stocks and medium-and large-cap stocks. At present, the valuation of Hang Seng large-cap stocks and Hang Seng small-cap stocks is still converging. According to historical statistics, when the PB difference between them turns positive, it is the end point of valuation correction (and often the end point of bull market), which also shows that in the current market, opportunities far outweigh risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/243c73a9ab5bd7175cf2bbb9696c2a90\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>3) From the perspective of industry, in addition to the medical sector, the upstream of this year's cycle shines brightly. Among them, the performance of the energy industry ranked first, the raw materials industry ranked third, and the comprehensive industry and Hang Seng Industry also performed well. Lower-ranked sectors are essential consumption, information technology and finance. We are still very optimistic about resource products. As the prices of bulk commodities have risen greatly compared with last year, for example, the price of crude oil has risen to a new high since the epidemic, the CRB index has risen by 50% year-on-year, the copper price has risen by 93% year-on-year, and the aluminum price has risen by 65% year-on-year. Therefore, there is a high probability that the second quarterly reports of these sectors have a good quarterly performance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f39b662e4346eb7fe12c2a1c4e0ee3a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>4) According to the industry performance statistics of 524 companies in Hong Kong Stock Connect, coal has increased astonishingly, followed by iron and steel, basic chemicals, medicine, textiles and clothing, media, non-ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and the bottom-ranked sectors are mainly electric power equipment, building materials, catering and tourism, national defense and military industry, non-bank finance, home appliances, automobiles, comprehensive, food and beverage and other industries.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f41709bcfaf17d58d7bc64db1f58f10\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>5) From the perspective of the banned investment list, the income in the first half of the year is gratifying. We judged at the beginning of the year that the investment ban company would perform well this year. As of June 2021, the average gain of companies on the ban list was 35%, and the median was 19%, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index. Nevertheless, we believe that many of these companies, such as telecom operators and oil companies, are still valued at low levels and have considerable upside.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb224b98db6f930b71d86e0064aa51e2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1068\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Changes in market expectations: cycle dominance, catering/computer downward adjustment</b></p><p>Profit expectation: Compared with before and after the annual report, the net profit expectation of steel, military industry, petroleum and petrochemical, banking, home appliances, electronic components, construction, non-bank finance and other industries in 2021 is revised upward, while the performance of catering and tourism, computers, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, machinery, building materials, food and beverage, commerce and retail, communication and media sectors is revised downward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54a90ee526b9ce63212c201fa34bcf95\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Revenue expectation: Compared with before and after the annual report, the 2021 revenue expectation of several industries, such as national defense and military industry, steel, building materials, home appliances, coal, automobiles, power equipment, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, electronic components and transportation, was revised upward; The revenue forecast of catering, tourism, computer, media and other industries is revised downward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e9b63b0b8664d387a63e0adadb04454\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Valuation comparison: textile and clothing hit a new high, and real estate industry chain hit a new low</b></p><p>Compared with the data of the last five years, the current valuation of Hong Kong Stock Connect is 24% (median), among which textile and clothing, steel, basic chemicals, petroleum and petrochemical sectors are higher, while real estate, construction, building materials, light manufacturing, non-bank finance, media, catering and tourism, home appliances, transportation and other industries are significantly lower than the average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebbf6b4ade68ddd8330d2405d7ca52b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Capital inflow/outflow in recent months: some midstream are still inflowing, indicating that the market is still in a bull market</p><p>Judging from the recent capital inflow, many sectors in the middle reaches have further increased their positions, while the big finance and upstream cycle are temporarily weak. In fact, this structure is more indicative of the economic recovery is still on the way rather than the end. At the end of the bull market, the situation should be the opposite: that is, the midstream outflows, while the big financial and cyclical upstream funds accelerate the inflow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfeea16da7ba61796acf24bcae1f0cb2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Investment advice</b></p><p>1. On the whole, when the CPI goes up, the low valuation will be repaired to a certain extent. Such as big finance, real estate, public utilities and telecom operators. Comparatively speaking, we think big finance is better. The reason is that a) banks and securities firms have made a large provision in 2020, and this year's performance has improved more obviously year-on-year; b) they are undervalued; c) Widening interest spreads have a boost to their earnings expectations; The cost of acquiring land in the real estate industry this year is relatively high, which is manifested by a higher degree of land premium, and the cost of construction and installation is also higher at a high level of commodities. Therefore, we think that although the valuation of real estate companies is low at present, their attractiveness is slightly less than that of companies in the industrial chain. The development of the construction industry is subject to the scale of government investment. At present, their future growth rate will further slow down;</p><p>2. As far as the second quarterly report is concerned, cyclical industries, especially companies in the upstream of the cycle, are more likely to exceed expectations. Petroleum, coal, non-ferrous metals and other sectors will perform better with the high (or even further upward) commodity prices. Here, the midstream sectors such as automobiles, machinery, electronics and home appliances may rise first and then fall. The reason is that the upward trend of commodity prices in the late stage of economic expansion leads to the narrowing of their profits, and the transmission of prices to the downstream is not as easy as that in the early and mid-stage of economic expansion;</p><p>3. In this round of economic cycle, due to the comprehensive impact of epidemic situation and economic transformation (double circulation), consumer stocks represented by Hang Seng Technology, biotechnology and brand clothing, especially those companies that exist uniquely in Hong Kong stocks, will show good investment value in the past and future. At present, Hang Seng Technology needs to rebound. We believe that the pressure of antitrust has been fully digested in the stock price in the first half of the year. The current valuation of biotechnology/medical devices/textiles and clothing is not low, but there are short-term catalytic factors, policy or performance. We think their trend is similar to the middle reaches, and Q3 will still perform well, while Q4 will become less attractive because of its high valuation.</p><p>To sum up, we believe that big finance, upstream cycle and Hang Seng Technology are the three major directions we are optimistic about in the second half of the year. In addition, new energy, semiconductors, biopharmaceuticals, textiles and apparel will also be trend opportunities before and after the semi-annual report. Due to the repeated epidemic, the recovery of the gaming sector will take time, and it is expected that there will be obvious opportunities in Q4.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99730b5306b832b0265537f4b7424a7d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>V. Risk warning</b></p><p>The risk of a lower-than-expected macroeconomic recovery, the risk of repeated pandemics, the uncertainty of Sino-US trade relations, and the risk of technology wars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b6b690532d93e57e2dac2a054def226\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>This article is selected from \"Xueheng's Overseas Observations\", author: Wang Xueheng; Zhitong Finance Editor: Zhuang Lijia.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FsSR-qGJ0tGYdcy0OSIdFw\">学恒的海外观察</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"513600":"恒生指数ETF南方","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSCEI":"国企指数","HSCCI":"红筹指数","02833":"恒指ETF","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FsSR-qGJ0tGYdcy0OSIdFw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154941861","content_text":"从成长性看，科创与周期占优;从中报业绩看，周期更佳;从估值看，大金融更有新引力。\n\n摘要\n全球：讨论TAPER尚早，美股依然在慢牛中\n尽管Taper的声音不绝于耳，但靴子落地并非易事：一方面，美国短期的GDP，CPI，消费，房价等数据在不断的上行，另一方面，实际时薪的下降，就业岗位恢复较慢，居民财富中股票占比过高，拜登政府加税可能带来对企业投资与招聘的负面影响，都需要被美联储充分考虑。因此，我们不认为Taper是一蹴而就的，初步判断在2021年Q4/2022年Q1才会有更加明晰的信号;美债收益率在年初的上行过快，充分消化了通胀的影响，尽管我们判断收益率依然震荡上行，但我们认为1.9-2.0%才是美股转向的阈值。以2022年的盈利作为依据，在4500点以下(本轮美股牛市我们的目标位)，标普依然运行在过去十年的估值框架里而并未大幅高估。\n国内：围绕二季报展开的行情已经开始\n企业中长期贷款的向上，佐证经济周期尚在扩张中，我们初步判断产量(工业增加值同比)、M1同比，都将在6、7月份开始反弹。\n从6月开始，CPI与PPI将收敛，意味着制造业的盈利将有所改善。伴随着CPI的逐渐上行，市场的信心也将不断被提升。\n以过去十年为参照，当下A股的估值并不高，大多宽基指数的估值(2022年)仅为平均值水平。因此，我们认为在经济周期扩张的时期，大盘有望突破本轮新高，下半年目标位4200-4300点。\n从成长性看，科创与周期占优;从中报业绩看，周期更佳;从估值看，大金融更有新引力。\n港股投资建议：蓄势已久，挑战新高\n我们调整恒生指数2021年31000-32000点的目标区间，意味着恒指有机会挑战本轮新高;\n我们认为下半年大盘上行的同时，也会伴随轮动的局面。半年报较优或者其他基本面驱动的板块主要为纺织服装、医药、金属、能源，其次，恒生科技、大金融中报预计符合预期而股价超跌，也将会有明显的估值修复。\n二季报之后或者Q4，部分板块的估值过高，加之距离年底taper以及资金面的不确定性，使得风险偏好无法持续提升，此时当关注价格可能持续上行的资源股、低估值的银行股、复苏预期滞后博彩股，以及经济周期影响较小的电信运营商和香港本地股。\n风险提示\n宏观经济复苏低于预期的风险，疫情反复的风险，中美贸易关系的不确定性，科技战的风险。\n正文\n一、全球：讨论TAPER尚早，美股依然在慢牛中\n1、到年底部分国家接种率将超过七成\n全球新增疫情最近稳定在每天30-40万例，较年初有明显下降，其中主要发达国家新增病例较年初下降明显。\n\n进入到5、6月份，根据our world in data的数据，部分国家的接种率(一剂)明显加速提升，按照当下的速度，在入冬之前，大部分有条件的国家，接种率能超过70%，即世卫组织认可的全民免疫效果的接种率水平。中国接种疫苗的速度更加惊人，目前已经超过了10亿剂次，每天以2000万的接种，预计也将在年底之前达到70%以上的接种率。\n\n2、世界银行上修全球GDP增速至5.6%\n1）2021年全球经济的上修\n世界银行1月份时预计全球GDP增速只有4.1%。6月，世界银行将全球GDP增速上修至5.6%，这是80 年来从衰退中取得的最强复苏，主要是受到美国和中国经济分别增长 6.8% 和 8.5% 的推动。IMF则更加乐观一些，认为全球GDP增速将达到6%(其年初的预期是5.15%)。\n\n两者对中国经济的增速的预期相当，世界银行预期中国2021年GDP增速为8.5%，IMF预期为8.4%;世界银行预期美国2021年GDP增速为6.8%，IMF预期为6.4%。\n2）中美的GDP差距缩小\n疫情期间，中国的GDP继续增长，美国GDP下滑，这缩小了中美GDP的差距，以(美国-中国)/美国表示差距的话，2020年，中美GDP差距为30%，IMF估计，不考虑人民币兑美元汇率的影响，到2026年，中美GDP差距将缩减至16%，该数字在2010年为60%，在2016年时缩小到了40%。\n\n在两国GDP缩小差距的背景下，自拜登就任美国总统之后，美国政府对中国频频释放各类压力。6月8日，美国国会参议院通过《2021年美国创新与竞争法》，美国有线电视新闻网称该法案意在向美国技术、科学、研究领域投资逾2000亿美元，用来对抗中国日益增长的影响力。\n另一方面，中国美国商会6月发布的《2021年度美国企业在中国白皮书》显示，中国市场对美国企业仍具有强大吸引力。超过一半(52%)的在华美国企业提到，中国第一大商机是“国内消费的增长和日益庞大的富裕中产阶层的崛起”，超过三分之二的美国企业将中国视为优先市场，85%的美国企业并未打算将制造或采购工序迁往中国以外的地方。白皮书还显示，近61%的美国企业相信中国将继续向外资开放市场。美国企业在中国的获得感进一步增强，如在金融领域，美国公司已经获得了在中国开展全方位业务的许可;在食品和农业领域，中国修改了法规，允许更多的美国产品进入中国等。\n3、美国经济周期尚在扩张阶段\n1）美国经济框架的启示：通胀与滞胀中的平衡\n在美国的经济框架中，利率政策或者个人收入传导给消费支出，这需要2、3个季度，然后消费的上升将带来工业生产、服务的景气度提升，以及企业盈利的提升，此间又需要1、2个季度。\n\n然后企业预期未来景气度的向上，开始增加资本开支，同时积极招工(这又是在2-4个季度之后了)，进而推动通货膨胀的上行。此时，美联储出手对通胀进行干预，以保证经济的健康发展。\n在这套系统中，如果干预的过晚，可能会使得通货膨胀滋长;但如果干预过早，就会将刚刚复苏的经济浇灭在摇篮中。如何来判断这个节奏，向来是个“天大的问题”，左边是通胀，右边是通缩，政府与中央银行必须在平衡木上小心翼翼的前行。\n2）当下美国经济数据中的一些矛盾之处\n一方面，美国消费、产量景气度无疑是上行的：个人消费支出上行(也归因去年低基数)，同时消费者信心指数恢复到疫情以来的最好水平。\n\n制造业PMI震荡上行，5月份服务业的PMI已经超过了疫情前的最高水平。\n\n成屋销售同比十年新高，房价加速上行，美国诸多媒体报道随处可见的“一房难求”、“买房加价”的现象。\n\n此外，市场对于美国宏观经济数据的预期，几个月以来也在不断上修。\n\n但是另一方面，在光鲜的数据背后，也有着不少隐忧：\n其一是实际时薪的下降。由于实际时薪决定了消费者的真实购买力，而本次经济复苏中，由于供给侧产能无法及时跟上、以及美元超发导致的商品价格的上行，推动了CPI率先走强，这使得名义时薪的上行而实际时薪的下降。历史上，实际时薪作为美国居民消费比较可靠的前导指标(当然，这主要在就业状况相对稳定的前提下)，当下给出的趋势并不明朗。\n\n其二是就业恢复仍需观察。根据美国劳工部的数据，新冠疫情让美国2200万人失去了工作。到目前为止，只恢复到了疫情前的67%的水平，还有800万就业差距。尚就在4月，美国新增非农就业大幅低于市场预期，5月仅仅符合本不高的预期。部分分析认为，因为撒钱式的补贴导致了低收入群体上班与不上班收入相当，这使得部分企业找不到员工，最终再次关门倒闭。据美国CNBC报导，在过去的一个月里，已经有25个州宣布将在其于9月6日正式到期之前，终止疫情期间的额外福利计划。一些州最早将于6月12日就停止联邦额外失业金的发放。这些州都是由共和党州长领导的。他们表示，额外增加的失业救济金，正在导致失业工人更愿意待在家里，而不是去找工作，这种补助使得企业很难招到工人，以填补急需的空缺职位。美国商会首席政策官布拉德利认为：“令人失望的就业报告清楚地表明，向不工作的人支付工资，正在抑制本应更加强劲的就业市场。”停止联邦额外失业金对后续用工的影响总体是积极的，但效果尚需跟踪。\n\n其三是关于拜登政府加税的预期。虽然我们预计此计划实施起来相当困难，而且为了确保中期选举，民主党不大可能在2022年中期选举之前在此问题上有过多的建树。然而，加税的预期在一定程度上将影响企业的人力资源规划。美国商会会长Clark表示，在提高商业税的必要性问题上与政府存在分歧：“拟议的增税计划将极大地损害美国企业和美国劳动者的利益。现在肯定不是为经济复苏设置新障碍的时候。政府倡导基础设施是正确的，我们希望与政府一起做这件事，但还有其他方法来资助基建计划。”美国商会表示支持基建设投资，但倾向于主要通过基础设施使用费来提供资金。美国零售联合会发言人McGinty表示，该组织在提交给美国参议院财政委员会的一封报告中反对为通过增加企业税为基建计划筹集资金。此外，美国零售业领导者协会发言人McGinty也表态，该协会反对给企业增税的立场没有改变。\n其四是关于美国股市在居民资产中的占比过高，股市的下跌将严重打击居民的消费热情。美国居民的财富和股票资产相关的有两类，一类是直接投资，另一类是通过养老计划(最终进入股市、债市)，两者在居民财富占比达到了惊人的57%(处在历史最高水平)，相比中国居民财富最大类的为房地产，在美国居民资产中的占比仅为24%。历史上，消费与股市互为因果：股票市场下跌→居民财富缩水→消费更加保守→企业盈利下降→股票市场下跌。当下，美股的总市值大约为45万亿美元，约为美国预期2021年GDP(22.2万亿美元)的202%。按照拉斯特维德在《逃不开的经济周期》中的估计，股市下跌将对GDP产生约4%的冲击系数。即，倘若美股下跌20%(这仅是一个基钦周期级别的调整)，单股市下跌对GDP的负向作用可达202%*20%*4%=-1.6%，以上，尚不考虑企业的资本开支萎缩，存货减值，房地产下跌等延伸性影响。一般来说，在一个有幅度的股票市场下跌行情中(如下跌1/3至一半)，且房地产市场也受到影响时(比如下跌1/5至1/3)，对当年GDP的综合影响约为-15%左右。\n\n美联储主席鲍威尔在4月的FOMC记者会上表示，美联储“将确保货币政策继续为经济提供强有力的支持，直到完成复苏”。目前，投资者预期美联储将在8月的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上宣布缩减QE。路透最新调查也显示，美联储可能在8月或9月宣布削减其大规模购债计划的策略，但预计要到明年初才会开始削减每月购买规模。\n而我们依然重复这一观点：就当下的美国经济，一旦TAPER实施，温和复苏的局面将可能终结。所以，持续审慎关注通胀(Q2/Q3)，就业数据(6、7、8月)，尤其是7、8月在部分州政府取消救助后对就业的影响，对于美联储是必要的。\n3）美债的走平说明市场对通胀的预期已经消化\n尽管5月份美国的CPI、核心CPI都创了新高，但是通胀预期(10年期美债收益率-10年TIPS收益率)下跌，美国10年期国债收益率振荡走平，这都说明对于通胀的预期已被市场所消化，下一步需要继续跟踪三季度的通胀水平。\n\n我们曾定量测算了本轮美债收益率的上行对于股票市场产生影响的关键位置。方法是观察在历史上的升息周期中加息次数、幅度(本轮联邦基金目标利率不动，这和历史略有区别，但市场利率上行是相同的)对于股票市场见顶的影响。我们测算了该结果：10年期美债收益率上行至1.9-2.0%水平时，美国牛市告一段落。\n4、大宗商品的上行仍将持续\n我们欣慰的回顾，在本轮大宗商品启动前的2019年发布的年度策略报告中，我们提及：“全球中周期——房地产周期、大宗商品周期均处在扩张阶段，短周期——基钦周期也已触及低点，转向扩张。中周期与短周期的合力共振向上，将推动周期资产价格的上涨”。到目前为止，我们对全球经济处在扩张阶段的判断依然没有改变。\n\n由于商品周期平均扩张时间为24-26个月，本轮大宗商品的上行将会在2022年二季度终结。此外，我们对比了商品指数与标普500的关系，与A股类似，标普500领先于CRB指数约0-3个月(就像上证指数领先PPI一样)，因此，我们初步匡算，美股将上涨到2022年一季度左右。\n美股依然运行在过去十年的估值框架中\n\n随着经济预期的向上修正，标普500的净利润也被上修。目前市场预期2021-2022年标普500EPS增速分别为40%，9%;ROE分别为19.7%，19.4%;EPS分别为194，211(而在我们去年年底撰写策略报告时期，EPS仅为170，197，上调幅度分别为14%，7%)。\n我们曾经介绍过，当下美国维持比疫情前更低的美债收益率，按照2008-2019年标普500的PE上限，21.4-21.5倍PE(剔除08年金融危机与20年疫情的极端影响)，给予标普500目标价，则可得：\nSPX目标价2021=194*21.4=4151点;\n如果考虑到估值切换到2022年，则可以得到：\nSPX目标价2022=211*21.4=4515点;\n因此，我们认为，今明两年，在标普500震荡上行达到4500点之前，美股则依然运行在最近十年的估值通道中而并未大幅高估。当然，谈论高估必然要讨论美债收益率、TAPER与QE，以及经济周期的位置，这些问题我们已经在前文解释过。\n\n二、A股：围绕二季报展开的行情已经开始\n1、企业中长期贷款的向上，佐证经济尚在扩张中\n5月份的M2同比已经不再下滑，开始出现了底部稳住的特征。中长期贷款依旧保持非常稳健的增长，预示着制造业信贷需求的旺盛。\n\n拆解社融科目，最近下降较为明显的是地方政府专项债券、企业债券、信托贷款。企业债券的下行背景是今年中央要求抓实化解地方政府隐性债务风险工作，多部门联合出手强化监管，遏制隐性债务增长;地方政府专项债券今年较去年略减少2800亿元，参考近期财政部下达2021年新增地方政府债务限额42676亿元(其中一般债务限额8000亿元，专项债务限额34676亿元)，低于此前经十三届人大四次会议批准的44700亿元预算(其中专项债务额度37500亿元);信托贷款的下滑是必然的，今年是资管新规过渡期的最后一年，信托业依旧在寻找转型与创新中。如此来看，今年的社融的特征是：政府与地方融资平台的融资需求放缓，房地产/信托的融资也被抑制住，而制造业的贷款需求旺盛。\n\n我们预估M1同比、工业增加值同比或者已经触及或者接近全年的低点并伴随经济周期的向上而抬升。\n\nM2中不统计财政存款(去年5月恰值财政存款高峰期)，因此社融较M2下滑更多我们认为是暂时性的。\n\n此外，国内资金面相对宽松，MLF从去年疫情至今尚未上行，理财收益率继续下行，信用利差下行(AA+，AAA较AA更加明显)。\n\n2、从6月开始，CPI与PPI差距将收敛\n今年上半年，PPI上行压力较大，在前几个月的跟踪过程中我们也感受到PPI的上行屡屡超过市场预期。去年5月为PPI全年的低点，因此从形态上，自6月份开始，PPI开启下行无疑。\n\n今年以来，CPI今年受制于猪价的下行有一定的拖累，但分科目观察，交通和通信、教育文化和娱乐、居住，以及食品烟酒环比都开始有了比较明显的改善。我们估计，CPI下半年还将保持韧性，稳步向上。\n\n但另一方面，PPI的下行代表了通胀压力的减缓，有利于制造业的盈利修复。但这并非意味着通胀压力的消失。因为在一个商品周期中，随着需求的好转，供给侧的产能尚无法在短周期内明显扩大，况且当下的周期品库存总体不高，随着库存的去化，商品价格还有进一步上行的空间。\n3、A股估值并不高，锁定中报预期上修的板块\n1）综合来看，当下A股估值并不高\n我们以过去十年的估值水平作为一个参考，观察一下当下A股的估值水平。\n万得全A当下估值20.3倍，若考虑估值切换，则2022年PE水平伴随业绩的增长回落至平均值。沪深300目前估值为14.5倍，若考虑估值切换，则2022年PE水平伴随业绩的增长也将回落至平均水平。\n\n上证指数当下的估值为14.2倍，处在平均值水平，若考虑估值切换，则2022年对应PE低于平均值;创业板当下估值水平略高59.0倍，但也处于+1个标准差以下，由于创业板增速更高，因此在考虑到估值切换的情境下，其2022年对应PE则低于平均值。\n\n中证500目前估值在所有主要的宽基指数中处于较低水平，估值仅为平均值-1标准差，若考虑到2022年的增速，则低于-1标准差;上证50估值水平处于相对较高水平，考虑到2022年的增长，则估值水平略高于历史平均值。\n\n综上，以十年周期来看A股，当下的估值水平并不高，下半年一旦考虑到估值切换，当下估值也仅为历史平均水平。如果测算A股的上行空间，我们以习惯的上证指数在年初16-16.2倍PE的年内最高水平测算，考虑到包含2022年估值切换的因素，测算上行目标区间约为4200-4300点。以上考虑是建立在经济周期扩张尚未结束，上行的主要动力是来自业绩提升而非估值扩张的情景。从宽基指数看，中证500较沪深300、上证50等估值更具吸引力。\n2）从成长性来看，科创与周期今年的业绩增速更明显\n从业绩增速观察，今年科创增速在宽基指数中居前，21年对比20年增长率高达70%，其次是小市值公司，国证2000，中证1000，中证500，创业板50，结合当下的估值水平和反弹情况，科创板、中证500性价比较高。在风格中，今年依旧不容忽视的是周期性行业的盈利增速，同比82%的增长，好过成长(74%)。\n\n从行业角度，今年增速较快的行业除了去年低基数的交运、传媒、消费者服务、零售外，有色、黑色居前，此外计算机、基础化工、电子、汽车也排名居前。\n\n3）从预期调整角度来看，周期性行业更占优势\n年报之后(4月30日)，科创50、中证500在所有宽基指数中预期上修幅度最大，上证指数也上修1%，排名第三。创业板、中证1000、国证2000则排名分别为后三位。风格中比较，周期性行业业绩上行幅度最大，成长则下修幅度最大。这和我们在前表中的观察略有矛盾，即成长股虽然增速最快，但从年报之后，业绩下修，说明目前成长股中的上行也是分化的而不是普遍的，而周期性行业的下跌是暂时的，二季报将至，我们认为周期性行业的机会将更加确定。\n\n对比年报后，业绩调整排名分行业比较如下：钢铁、消费者服务、汽车、交运石油石化居前，机械、有色金属、煤炭、轻工制造也有一定幅度的上调，而排名居后的分别是商贸零售、传媒、综合、农林牧渔、通信、计算机。\n在这样的排序中，我们认为依然需要讨论商品的价格，例如，如果基本金属、煤炭、原油的价格上行，将对中游的钢铁、汽车、机械、轻工、化工、家电等原材料敏感性的行业带来盈利压力，如果周期上游的价格稳定或者下行，则如上行业的盈利增速可能反倒继续上修。\n\n我们的态度是：本轮经济周期扩张尚未结束，而商品价格上行的诱因：连续7-10年的产能扩张相对有限的核心变量并没有改变，假定下游产量继续上行，则上游原材料上行的压力始终存在。因此，在板块的盈利预测方面，我们倾向于认为偏周期上游的有色金属、石油石化、煤炭的中报业绩确定性更强。\n4）从估值角度来看，不应忽略大金融的估值修复潜力\n按照对经济周期的理解，当CPI向上，市场收益率上行，预期金融行业受到息差加大的影响而盈利改善。因此，低估值的大金融有望在下半年修复。我们将一级行业放在PE/PB分位矩阵中观察，目前银行股的PB估值在历史最低水平，而且我们预计今年Q2银行业的ROE将有相对明显的同比抬升(对比去年Q2开始的预计提)。保险行业今年保费收入较差，但由于两年以来该板块没有表现，基本面不佳已经充分消化在股价上，下半年也有估值修复的空间。券商从去年7月份经历了一年的弱势震荡，当下估值也很低(连同保险处在历史分位10%以下)。考虑到国内注册制大潮的推进，以及券商资产质量优于保险、银行，我们认为下半年该板块也将有不错的表现。\n\n综合成长性，预期调整，估值三个方面，我们看好科创板、周期上游、大金融作为下半年的首选推荐。同时，我们按照前文的测算，上证将在年内有望上行至4200-4300点的高度。\n三、港股：蓄势已久，挑战新高\n1、2021年下半年恒指有望突破本轮新高\n市场预期，恒生指数(HSI)在2021年EPS增速为11%，2022年增速为-2%，这个表现不如A股，但是其收入端并不差，同比为19%与12%的增速。一些大型的互联网公司今年的目标依然是追求收入的增速而非利润端，这是一部分原因，另外恒生指数中地产、金融部分占比较高，也一定程度上拖累了利润的增长。\n\n下图是恒生指数(HSI)在历史上估值的PB波动区间。我们以此来测算恒指的下半年目标位。\n\n在此前的报告中，我们曾解释过，由于从历史波动率观察，净资产的稳定性更好(较EPS和股息)，因此，我们在预测恒指的低点或者高点通常考虑PB估值或者股息率。我们沿用每轮基钦周期扩张时PB的提升幅度，取中位数来匡算2021年下半年恒生指数的PB上限。\n\n从2002年以来，恒指在每轮基钦周期中的PB扩张幅度分别为49%、85%、74%、29%、63%，中位数为63%，平均数为60%。我们得到下半年恒生指数的PB上限是1.39倍。\nPB2021上限=0.87*(1+60%)=1.39\n根据分析师对2021-2022年净资产的预期为21,784点、23,387点，则恒指的目标位为：\n中性：21784(BPS2021)*1.39=30,374点;\n乐观(考虑到估值切换到2022年)：23,387(BPS2022)*1.39=32,610点。\n因此，我们判断下半年恒指的目标价将运行到31,000-32,000点附近，即有创本轮新高的潜力。\n2、上半年走势回顾\n我们在年初《2020年港股小结》中总结了五大方向：“展望2021年，寻找超额收益的方向可能是：1、新经济依然是主战场，尤其是反垄断政策与美国政策干扰下的投资标的将会“恐慌-错杀-再新高”的机会;2、次新股将带来更多的投资线索;3、风险偏好的上行将有助于大小市值的估值收敛;4、顺周期板块伴随疫情的恢复，将缩小板块间的表现差异;5、美国禁投令的靴子落地，将带来名单公司的估值修复机会。”\n复盘今年上半年，港股经历了三个阶段：上涨、下跌、反弹。\n第一阶段是春节之前，科技股、生物科技股一马当先，最高时期，恒生科技指数达到了29%的上涨幅度;\n第二个阶段是春节后至5月初，在美债收益率快速上行，以及互联网反垄断的影响下，恒生科技指数大幅回撤，收益率从29%跌至-11%，恒指跌破28000点;\n第三阶段是5月下旬到6月，随着美债收益率的稳定，以及市场不断的吸收了反垄断的诸多影响，各大指数开始反弹。表现最好的是生物科技板块(25%)，其次是香港本地股(9%)，再其次是港股通(7%)，国企指数和恒生科技跑输恒生指数。\n1）从内地投资者的角度，港股作为A股市场的补充，恒生科技与恒生生物科技是投资者最关注的两大赛道。去年恒生科技涨幅较大，加之反垄断的影响，带来了部分投资者止盈，而恒生生物科技则接过了接力棒，表现抢眼。我们相信，长期来看，新经济依然是主战场，恒生科技、生物科技都会有不错的表现。5月，易方达恒生科技ETF、华夏恒生科技ETF、大成恒生科技ETF、华安恒生科技ETF、华泰柏瑞南方东英恒生科技ETF、博时恒生科技ETF、嘉实恒生科技ETF都已经发布，内地投资者可以透过这些ETF购买恒生科技指数，这样解决了港股没有覆盖的类似阿里巴巴、百度、京东、B站等一大批股票的投资限制问题。\n\n2）从风格上来看，可以看出，从年初以来，如果跑赢恒生指数，在风格上，要求仓位集中在恒生小型股、中小型股、中型股，而非大型股与中大型股。目前，恒生大型股与恒生小型股的估值依然在收敛中，我们按照历史规律统计过，当两者的PB差值转正，才是估值修正的终点(也往往是牛市的终点)，这也说明了目前的市场，机会远大于风险。\n\n3）从行业来看，除了医疗板块，今年周期上游大放异彩。其中能源业的表现排名第一，原材料业排名第三，综合业、恒生工业也有不错的表现。排名靠后的行业的必需性消费、资讯科技、金融。我们依然非常看好资源品，由于大宗品的价格较去年上行幅度很大，例如原油价格上行到了疫情以来的新高，CRB指数同比上行50%，铜价同比上行93%，铝价同比上行65%，因此大概率上这些板块二季报有不错的季报表现。\n\n4）从港股通524家公司的行业表现统计，煤炭涨幅惊人，其次是钢铁、基础化工、医药、纺织服装、传媒、有色金属、石油石化，排名居后的板块主要是电力设备、建材、餐饮旅游、国防军工、非银行金融、家电、汽车、综合、食品饮料等几个行业。\n\n5）从禁投名单的角度看，上半年收益可喜。我们在年初判断，禁投令公司今年会有不错的表现。截至2021年6月，禁投名单公司涨幅平均数为35%，中位数19%，大幅跑赢恒指。尽管如此，我们认为其中的诸多公司如电信运营商、石油公司，估值依然较低，还有相当程度的上行空间。\n\n3、市场预期变化：周期占优，餐饮/计算机下调\n利润预期：对比年报前后，钢铁、军工、石油石化、银行、家电、电子元器件、建筑、非银金融等几个行业的2021年净利润预期上修，而餐饮旅游、计算机、农林牧渔、有色金属、电力设备、机械、建材、食品饮料、商贸零售、通信、传媒几个板块的业绩下修。\n\n收入预期：对比年报前后，国防军工、钢铁、建材、家电、煤炭、汽车、电力设备、农林牧渔、电子元器件、交运等几个行业的2021年收入预期上修;而餐饮旅游、计算机、传媒等行业的收入预期下修。\n\n4、估值比较：纺织服装创新高，地产产业链新低\n以最近5年的数据比较，当下港股通的估值分位为24%(中位值)，其中，纺织服装、钢铁、基础化工、石油石化几个板块较高，而房地产、建筑、建材、轻工制造、非银金融、传媒、餐饮旅游、家电、交运等行业大幅低于平均水平。\n\n近月资金流入/流出：部分中游还在流入，说明市场还在牛市中\n从近期的资金流入情况来看，中游的诸多板块有进一步的加仓，而大金融、周期上游暂时偏弱。实际上这样的结构更加说明经济复苏依然在路上而非尾声。在牛市的尾声，呈现的局面应该相反：即中游流出，而大金融、周期上游资金加速流入。\n\n四、投资建议\n1、整体而言，在CPI上行时，低估值会有一定幅度的估值修复。如大金融、房地产、公用事业、电信运营商，这些行业相比较而言，我们认为大金融更优。理由是a)银行、券商在2020年都进行了较大幅度的计提，今年业绩同比改善更加明显;b)它们估值较低;c)息差扩大对它们的盈利预期有推动作用;房地产业今年拿地的成本较高，表现为较高程度的土地溢价，而承受的建安成本在大宗商品处在高位处也较高，因此我们认为地产公司目前尽管估值较低，但其吸引力略小于产业链上的公司。建筑业的发展受制于政府投资规模，目前来看，它们未来的增长速度将进一步放缓;\n2、就二季报来看，周期性行业，尤其是周期上游的公司更容易超预期。石油石化、煤炭、有色金属等板块，伴随着商品价格的高位(甚至进一步上行)，业绩会更佳。此间，汽车、机械、电子、家电等中游板块，或呈现先上涨后下跌的局面，理由是经济扩张后期商品价格上行导致其利润收窄，而价格的向下游传导也不如经济扩张早中期容易;\n3、本轮经济周期，由于疫情、经济转型(双循环)等综合影响，以恒生科技、生物科技、品牌服饰为代表的消费股，尤其是那些在港股中独特存在的公司，过去以及未来都会呈现良好的投资价值。当下，恒生科技有反弹需要，我们认为反垄断的压力已经充分消化在上半年的股价中，生物科技/医疗器械/纺织服装目前估值不低，但都有短期的催化因素，政策上的或业绩上的，我们认为它们的走势类似中游，Q3依然会有不错的表现，而Q4则会因为估值高而变得吸引力下降。\n综上，我们认为大金融、周期上游、恒生科技是我们下半年看好的三大方向。此外，新能源、半导体、生物制药、纺织服装也将半年报前后的趋势性机会。受制于疫情的反复，博彩板块的复苏尚需时日，预计Q4才有较为明显的机会。\n\n五、风险提示\n宏观经济复苏低于预期的风险，疫情反复的风险，中美贸易关系的不确定性，科技战的风险。\n\n本文选编自“学恒的海外观察”，作者：王学恒；智通财经编辑：庄礼佳。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513600":0.9,"HHImain":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9,"HSImain":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,"MCHmain":0.9,"MHImain":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"02833":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1862,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":158094109,"gmtCreate":1625112038601,"gmtModify":1703736399809,"author":{"id":"3569362990402240","authorId":"3569362990402240","name":"陈洪良","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569362990402240","idStr":"3569362990402240"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"sshyil","listText":"sshyil","text":"sshyil","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/158094109","repostId":"1154941861","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154941861","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625103381,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154941861?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-01 09:36","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Investment strategy of Hong Kong stocks in the second half of the year! Hang Seng Index has a chance to challenge this round of new highs","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154941861","media":"学恒的海外观察","summary":"从成长性看，科创与周期占优;从中报业绩看，周期更佳;从估值看，大金融更有新引力。\n\n摘要\n全球：讨论TAPER尚早，美股依然在慢牛中\n尽管Taper的声音不绝于耳，但靴子落地并非易事：一方面，美国短期","content":"<p>From the perspective of growth, science and technology innovation and cycle dominate; From the interim report performance, the cycle is better; From the valuation point of view, big finance has new attraction.<b>Abstract</b></p><p><b>Global: Early to Discuss TAPER, U.S. Stocks Still in Slow Bull</b></p><p>Although Taper's voice is endless, it is not easy for boots to land: on the one hand, the short-term GDP, CPI, consumption, housing prices and other data in the United States are constantly rising; on the other hand, the decline of real hourly wages, the slow recovery of jobs, the high proportion of stocks in residents' wealth, and the negative impact of the Biden administration's tax increase on corporate investment and recruitment need to be fully considered by the Federal Reserve. Therefore, we don't think Taper is an overnight achievement, and the preliminary judgment will only have a clearer signal in Q4 2021/Q1 2022; The yield of U.S. bonds rose too fast at the beginning of the year, fully digesting the impact of inflation. Although we judge that the yield is still fluctuating upward, we believe that 1.9-2.0% is the threshold for U.S. stocks to turn. Based on the earnings in 2022, below 4,500 points (our target level for this round of US stock bull market), S&P still runs in the valuation framework of the past decade and is not significantly overvalued.</p><p><b>Domestic: The market around the second quarterly report has begun</b></p><p>The upward trend of medium-and long-term loans to enterprises proves that the economic cycle is still expanding. We preliminarily judge that the output (industrial added value year-on-year) and M1 year-on-year will start to rebound in June and July.</p><p>From June, CPI and PPI will converge, meaning that manufacturing earnings will improve. With the gradual upward trend of CPI, the confidence of the market will continue to be improved.</p><p>Taking the past decade as a reference, the current valuation of A shares is not high, and the valuation of most broad-based indexes (2022) is only the average level. Therefore, we believe that in the period of economic cycle expansion, the market is expected to break through the current new high, with a target of 4200-4300 points in the second half of the year.</p><p>From the perspective of growth, science and technology innovation and cycle dominate; From the interim report performance, the cycle is better; From the valuation point of view, big finance has new attraction.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Investment Advice: Long-standing Momentum, Challenging New Highs</b></p><p>We adjust the target range of 31,000-32,000 points of the Hang Seng Index in 2021, which means that the Hang Seng Index has the opportunity to challenge this round of new highs;</p><p>We believe that while the market goes up in the second half of the year, it will also be accompanied by a rotation situation. The sectors with better semi-annual reports or other fundamentals are mainly textiles and clothing, medicine, metals and energy. Secondly, the interim reports of Hang Seng Technology and Big Finance are expected to meet expectations and the stock price is oversold, which will also have obvious valuation repair.</p><p>After the second quarterly report or Q4, the valuation of some sectors is too high, coupled with the uncertainty of taper and funds at the end of the year, which makes it impossible to continuously improve the risk appetite. At this time, we should pay attention to resource stocks whose prices may continue to rise, bank stocks with low valuation, gaming stocks with lagging recovery expectations, telecom operators and local stocks in Hong Kong with less impact on the economic cycle.</p><p><b>Risk warning</b></p><p>The risk of a lower-than-expected macroeconomic recovery, the risk of repeated pandemics, the uncertainty of Sino-US trade relations, and the risk of technology wars.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>1. Global: It's too early to discuss TAPER, and U.S. stocks are still in a slow bull</b></p><p><b>1. By the end of the year, the vaccination rate in some countries will exceed 70%</b></p><p>The global new epidemic situation has recently stabilized at 300,000-400,000 cases per day, a significant decrease compared with the beginning of the year, among which the new cases in major developed countries have decreased significantly compared with the beginning of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ef09015d57bc577bb7a93bb846c2381\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4256b27b5673e8fb532e714b91541b91\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>in May and June, according to the data of our world in data, the vaccination rate (one dose) in some countries has accelerated significantly. At the current rate, before winter, the vaccination rate in most countries with conditions can exceed 70%, that is, the WHO recognized<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>Level of vaccination rate for immunization effects. The rate of vaccination in China is even more alarming. It has now exceeded 1 billion doses, and with 20 million vaccinations per day, it is also expected to reach a vaccination rate of more than 70% by the end of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba455f4b2fc4f3e96e0539d81b0cb3f3\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. The World Bank revised the global GDP growth rate up to 5.6%</b></p><p><b>1) Upward revision of the global economy in 2021</b></p><p>In January, the World Bank forecast global GDP growth to be only 4.1%. In June, the World Bank revised global GDP growth upward to 5.6%, the strongest recovery from a recession in 80 years, driven largely by 6.8% growth in the US and 8.5% growth in China. The IMF is more optimistic, believing that global GDP growth will reach 6% (its forecast at the beginning of the year was 5.15%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/507d0e153840bb4f705f60f90a813461\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Both of them have similar expectations for China's economic growth. The World Bank expects China's GDP growth rate in 2021 to be 8.5%, and the IMF expects it to be 8.4%; The World Bank expects U.S. GDP growth to be 6.8% in 2021, and the IMF expects 6.4%.</p><p><b>2) The GDP gap between China and the United States has narrowed</b></p><p>During the epidemic, China's GDP continued to grow, while the GDP of the United States declined, which narrowed the GDP gap between China and the United States. If the gap is expressed by (United States-China) /United States, the GDP gap between China and the United States was 30% in 2020. The IMF estimates that, regardless of the impact of RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, the GDP gap between China and the United States will narrow to 16% by 2026, which was 60% in 2010 and 40% in 2016.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b444982fe1c0d1748b4110b2b21b14e4\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Against the background of narrowing the GDP gap between the two countries, the U.S. government has frequently released various pressures on China since Biden took office as president of the United States. On June 8, the U.S. Senate passed the U.S. Innovation and Competition Act of 2021, which CNN said is intended to invest more than $200 billion in U.S. technology, science and research to counter China's growing influence.</p><p>On the other hand, the 2021 White Paper on American Enterprises in China released by AmCham-China in June shows that the Chinese market remains a strong attraction for American companies. More than half (52%) of U.S. companies in China mentioned that the number one business opportunity in China was \"the growth of domestic consumption and the rise of an increasingly large wealthy middle class\", more than two-thirds of U.S. companies regarded China as a priority market, and 85% did not intend to relocate manufacturing or procurement processes outside China. The white paper also shows that nearly 61 percent of U.S. companies believe China will continue to open its market to foreign investment. The sense of gain of American enterprises in China has been further enhanced. For example, in the financial field, American companies have obtained the license to carry out all-round business in China; In food and agriculture, China has revised regulations to allow more American products into China, among other things.</p><p><b>3. The US economic cycle is still in the expansion stage</b></p><p><b>1) Enlightenment from the U.S. Economic Framework: Balance between Inflation and Stagflation</b></p><p>In the economic framework of the United States, interest rate policy or personal income is transmitted to consumer expenditure, which takes two or three quarters. Then the rise of consumption will bring about the prosperity of industrial production and services, and the improvement of corporate profits, which will take another one or two quarters.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47a2af46ec117739d1459c097dde5dde\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Then, expecting the upward prosperity in the future, enterprises began to increase capital expenditure, and actively recruited workers (this is after 2-4 quarters), thus pushing inflation upward. At this time, the Federal Reserve intervened against inflation to ensure the healthy development of the economy.</p><p>In this system, if you intervene too late, it may make inflation grow; But if it intervenes too early, it will douse the recovering economy in its cradle. How to judge this rhythm has always been a \"big problem\". On the left side is inflation and on the right side is deflation.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>Must move carefully on the balance beam.</p><p><b>2) Some contradictions in the current U.S. economic data</b></p><p>On the one hand, the prosperity of consumption and output in the United States is undoubtedly on the rise: personal consumption expenditure is on the rise (also attributed to last year's low base), and the consumer confidence index has returned to the best level since the epidemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c984927723e729dc26b3d0bd56102c50\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Manufacturing PMI oscillated upward, with services PMI already surpassing pre-pandemic highs in May.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06899913e56c9f14274fd575748c7073\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The sales of existing houses have been at a new high in ten years year-on-year, and house prices have accelerated. Many media reports in the United States have reported the phenomenon of \"difficult to find a house\" and \"increasing the price of buying a house\" everywhere.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c22aaa51435ed2745ae7fe639f3f719f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, the market's expectations for the macroeconomic data of the United States have been revised upward for several months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/789c9420c8b167c7a431c7aaa52e412c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"251\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/545c4a3e4d8c168ad26cc85898a91521\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But on the other hand, behind the glamorous data, there are also many hidden worries:</p><p><b>One is the decline in real hourly wages.</b>As the real hourly wage determines the real purchasing power of consumers, in this economic recovery, due to the inability of supply-side production capacity to keep up in time and the upward trend of commodity prices caused by the excessive issuance of US dollars, CPI took the lead in strengthening, which made the nominal hourly wage rise and the real hourly wage decline. Historically, real hourly wage, as a reliable leading indicator of American residents' consumption (of course, this is mainly on the premise of relatively stable employment situation), is not clear at present.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5574774b629c3937a2d6c41738554902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, employment recovery still needs to be observed.</b>Covid has cost 22 million jobs in the U.S., according to the U.S. Department of Labor. So far, it has only recovered to pre-pandemic levels of 67%, and there is an 8 million job gap. As recently as April, new non-farm employment in the United States was significantly lower than market expectations, and May only met the low expectations. Some analysts believe that because of the money-casting subsidy, the income of low-income groups when they go to work is equivalent to that of not going to work, which makes some enterprises unable to find employees and finally closes down again. According to CNBC, in the past month, 25 states have announced that they will terminate their additional benefit programs during the pandemic before they officially expire on September 6th. Some states will stop paying additional federal unemployment benefits as early as June 12. These states are all led by Republican governors. They say additional unemployment benefits are causing unemployed workers to prefer to stay at home rather than look for work, which makes it difficult for companies to recruit workers to fill badly needed vacancies. Bradley, chief policy officer of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, argued: \"The disappointing jobs report clearly shows that paying people who don't work is dampening what should have been a stronger job market.\" The impact of stopping federal additional unemployment benefits on subsequent employment is overall positive, but the effect needs to be tracked.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28525bd8d2b0a12655fff844c305910b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The third is about the expectation that the Biden administration will raise taxes.</b>While we expect this plan to be quite difficult to implement, and in order to secure midterm elections, it is unlikely that the Democrats will do much on this issue before the 2022 midterm elections. However, the expectation of tax increases will affect the human resource planning of businesses to some extent. Clark, president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said there is a disagreement with the administration on the need to raise business taxes: \"The proposed tax increase plan will greatly harm American businesses and American working people. This is certainly not the time to put new barriers to economic recovery. The administration is right to advocate for infrastructure, and we want to do it with the government, but there are other ways to fund infrastructure plans.\" The U.S. Chamber of Commerce said it supports infrastructure investment, but prefers funding primarily through infrastructure royalties. McGinty, a spokesman for the American Retail Federation, said the organization opposed raising funds for infrastructure plans through corporate tax increases in a report to the U.S. Senate Finance Committee. In addition, McGinty, spokesman of the American Retail Industry Leaders Association, also said that the association's position against raising taxes on businesses has not changed.</p><p><b>Fourth, the proportion of the US stock market in residents' assets is too high, and the decline of the stock market will seriously dampen residents' consumption enthusiasm.</b>There are two types of wealth related to stock assets of American residents, one is direct investment, and the other is through pension plans (finally entering the stock market and bond market). Both of them account for an astonishing 57% of residents' wealth (at the highest level in history). Compared with Chinese residents' wealth, the largest category is real estate, which accounts for only 24% of American residents' assets. Historically, consumption and the stock market are mutually causal: the stock market falls → residents' wealth shrinks → consumption is more conservative → corporate profits fall → the stock market falls. At present, the total market capitalization of U.S. stocks is about $45 trillion, which is about 202% of the expected 2021 GDP of the United States ($22.2 trillion). According to Rastved's estimates in The Inescapable Economic Cycle, a decline in the stock market will have an impact coefficient of about 4% on GDP. That is, if the U.S. stock market falls by 20% (this is only a Kitchen cycle level adjustment), the negative effect of a single stock market decline on GDP can reach 202%*20%*4% = -1.6%, regardless of the extended effects such as shrinking capital expenditure, inventory impairment and real estate decline of enterprises. Generally speaking, in a large stock market decline (such as 1/3 to half), and the real estate market is also affected (such as 1/5 to 1/3), the comprehensive impact on the GDP of that year is about-15%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/382235a0385c82b548308426f12a5ca7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Fed Chairman Powell said at an FOMC press conference in April that the Fed \"<b>Will ensure that monetary policy continues to provide strong support for the economy until the recovery is completed</b>”。 Currently, investors expect the Fed to announce a QE taper at the annual meeting of global central banks at Jackson Hole in August. The latest Reuters survey also shows that the Federal Reserve may announce its strategy to cut its large-scale bond purchase program in August or September, but it is not expected to start cutting its monthly purchases until early next year.</p><p>And we still repeat this view: In the current U.S. economy, once TAPER is implemented, the situation of moderate recovery will likely end. Therefore, it is necessary for the Federal Reserve to continue to pay cautious attention to inflation (Q2/Q3) and employment data (June, July and August), especially the impact on employment after some state governments cancelled the bailout in July and August.</p><p><b>3) The flattening of U.S. debt shows that the market's expectation of inflation has been digested</b></p><p>Although the CPI and core CPI of the United States both reached a new high in May, the inflation expectation (10-year U.S. bond yield-10-year TIPS yield) fell, and the 10-year Treasury Bond yield of the United States oscillated flat, which all shows that the expectation of inflation has been digested by the market, and the next step is to continue to track the inflation level in the third quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcb17db63daecb5e450b90e31da6b24d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>We have quantitatively measured the key positions where the upward trend of U.S. bond yields in this round will have an impact on the stock market. The method is to observe the impact of the number and magnitude of rate hike in the historical interest rate hike cycle (the target interest rate of federal funds in this round remains unchanged, which is slightly different from history, but the upward trend of market interest rate is the same) on the peak of the stock market. We measured the result: The U.S. bull market came to an end when the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 1.9-2.0%.</p><p><b>4. The upward trend of commodities will continue</b></p><p>We are pleased to recall that in the annual strategy report released in 2019 before the launch of this round of commodities, we mentioned: \"The global mid-cycle-real estate cycle and commodity cycle are all in the expansion stage, and the short-cycle-Kitchen cycle has also hit a low point and turned to expansion. The combined resonance of the mid-cycle and the short-cycle will promote the rise of cyclical asset prices\". So far, our judgment that the global economy is in an expansion phase remains unchanged.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f69ac8fd633ab057903ac98c0ff9bd7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As the average expansion time of commodity cycle is 24-26 months, the upward trend of this round of commodities will end in the second quarter of 2022. In addition, we compared the relationship between commodity index and S&P 500. Similar to A shares, S&P 500 is ahead of CRB index by about 0-3 months (just like Shanghai Composite Index is ahead of PPI). Therefore, we preliminarily calculate that US stocks will rise to around the first quarter of 2022.</p><p>U.S. stocks are still running in the valuation framework of the past decade</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c409da511bbb7b9010d35341123123e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>With the upward revision of economic expectations, the S&P 500's net income was also revised upward. At present, the market expects that the growth rate of S&P 500EPS from 2021 to 2022 will be 40% and 9% respectively; The ROE was 19.7% and 19.4%, respectively; EPS was 194,211, respectively (compared to 170,197 at the end of last year when we wrote our strategy report, which was 14% and 7% higher, respectively).</p><p>As we have introduced, at present, the United States maintains a lower yield on U.S. bonds than before the epidemic. According to the PE ceiling of S&P 500 in 2008-2019, 21.4-21.5 times PE (excluding the extreme impact of the 2008 financial crisis and the 20-year epidemic), if the target price of S&P 500 is given, we can get:</p><p>SPX Price Target 2021=194*21.4=4151 pips;</p><p>If you take into account the valuation switch to 2022, you get:</p><p>SPX Price Target 2022=211*21.4=4515 pips;</p><p><b>Therefore, we believe that this year and next, before the S&P 500 fluctuates up to 4,500 points, US stocks will still run in the valuation channel of the last decade without being greatly overvalued. Of course, when talking about overvaluation, we must discuss U.S. bond yields, TAPER and QE, and the position of the economic cycle, which we have explained earlier.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c227e1cc13a265388c5f10645737f46\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, A shares: the market around the second quarterly report has begun</b></p><p><b>1. The upward trend of medium-and long-term loans to enterprises proves that the economy is still expanding</b></p><p>In May, M2 stopped declining year-on-year, and began to show the characteristics of stable bottom. Medium-and long-term loans continued to grow very steadily, indicating strong demand for manufacturing credit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d13ac00c05eda5dbb8e68726c0f726d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Dismantling social finance subjects, the recent obvious decline is local government special bonds, corporate bonds and trust loans. The downward background of corporate bonds is that this year, the central government required to resolve the hidden debt risks of local governments, and multi-departments jointly took action to strengthen supervision and curb the growth of hidden debt; This year, local government special bonds have decreased slightly by 280 billion yuan compared with last year. Referring to the recent new local government debt limit of 4,267.6 billion yuan issued by the Ministry of Finance in 2021 (including 800 billion yuan in general debt limit and 3,467.6 billion yuan in special debt limit), it is lower than the previous budget of 4,47 billion yuan approved by the Fourth Session of the 13th National People's Congress (including 3,75 billion yuan in special debt limit); The decline of trust loans is inevitable. This year is the last year of the transition period of the new asset management regulations, and the trust industry is still looking for transformation and innovation. From this point of view, this year's social financing is characterized by: the financing demand of government and local financing platforms has slowed down, the financing of real estate/trust has also been suppressed, and the loan demand of manufacturing industry is strong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f845a54283fd13c73447217a3dbe8b53\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>We estimate that M1 year-on-year and industrial added value year-on-year have either touched or approached the low of the whole year and will rise with the upward trend of the economic cycle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/533c0d730d72abbfdc5353dd14f6d770\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>M2 does not count fiscal deposits (May last year coincided with the peak period of fiscal deposits), so we think that the decline of social financing is more temporary than that of M2.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a462618d750770032e117dc050724701\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, domestic funds are relatively loose, MLF has not gone up since the epidemic last year, the yield of wealth management continues to decline, and the credit spread declines (AA +, AAA is more obvious than AA).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/403868625533e7493faa8e6a393fe62e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Starting from June, the gap between CPI and PPI will converge</b></p><p>In the first half of this year, PPI was under great upward pressure. During the tracking process in the previous months, we also felt that the upward trend of PPI repeatedly exceeded market expectations. Last May was the lowest point of PPI for the whole year, so in terms of form, since June, PPI has undoubtedly begun to decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f3ed224ba421077d14bb149aaadba9b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since the beginning of this year, CPI has been dragged down by the downward trend of pig prices this year, but according to subject observation, transportation and communication, education, culture and entertainment, housing, as well as food, tobacco and alcohol have all begun to improve significantly. We estimate that CPI will remain resilient and steadily upward in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e7d6b010c508c34a936f1c6c30c502f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But on the other hand, the downward trend of PPI represents the slowdown of inflationary pressure, which is conducive to the earnings repair of the manufacturing industry. But this does not mean that inflationary pressures are gone. Because in a commodity cycle, with the improvement of demand, the production capacity on the supply side can't be significantly expanded in a short period of time, and the current inventory of cyclical products is generally not high. With the de-inventory, there is still room for further upward movement in commodity prices.</p><p><b>3. The valuation of A shares is not high, and the plate where the interim report is expected to be updated is locked</b></p><p><b>1) On the whole, the current valuation of A shares is not high</b></p><p>Let's take the valuation level of the past ten years as a reference to observe the current valuation level of A shares.</p><p>The current valuation of Wind Full A is 20.3 times. If the valuation switching is considered, the PE level in 2022 will drop back to the average with the growth of performance. CSI 300 is currently valued at 14.5 times. If the valuation switching is considered, the PE level will also fall back to the average level in 2022 with the growth of performance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85ce88cba8d0e32d600ac041e40ba96e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The current valuation of Shanghai Composite Index is 14.2 times, which is at the average level. If the valuation switching is considered, the corresponding PE in 2022 will be lower than the average; The current valuation level of GEM is slightly higher by 59.0 times, but it is also below +1 standard deviation. Because the growth rate of GEM is higher, its corresponding PE in 2022 is lower than the average, taking into account the valuation switching.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00c5057cc381cafd3af77d267f468623\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The current valuation of CSI 500 is at a low level among all major broad-based indices, with a valuation of only-1 standard deviation on average, which is less than-1 standard deviation if the growth rate in 2022 is taken into account; The SSE 50 valuation level is at a relatively high level, slightly above the historical average given the growth in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6717030e153e34f4d57acbfb01d4b00\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>To sum up, from the ten-year cycle, the current valuation level of A shares is not high. Once the valuation switch is considered in the second half of the year, the current valuation is only the historical average. If we measure the upside of A shares, we measure it at the highest level of 16-16.2 times PE of the customary Shanghai Composite Index at the beginning of the year. Considering the factors including the valuation switch in 2022, the estimated upside target range is about 4200-4300 points. The above consideration is based on the fact that the expansion of the economic cycle has not yet ended, and the main driving force for the upward trend comes from performance improvement rather than valuation expansion.<b>From the perspective of broad-based index, CSI 500 is more attractive than CSI 300 and SSE 50.</b></p><p><b>2) From the perspective of growth, the performance growth rate of science and technology innovation and cycle this year is more obvious</b></p><p>From the observation of performance growth rate, this year's growth rate of science and technology innovation ranks first in the broad-based index, with a growth rate of 70% in 21 years compared with 20 years, followed by small market capitalization companies, National Securities 2000, CSI 1000, CSI 500 and GEM 50. Combined with the current valuation level and rebound, science and technology innovation board and CSI 500 are more cost-effective. In style, what still can't be ignored this year is the profit growth rate of cyclical industries, which is better than growth (74%) by 82% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a8427a42d4a8c2422e6397f9c3383f8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From the perspective of industry, in addition to last year's low-base transportation, media, consumer services and retail, nonferrous metals and black are the top industries this year, and computers, basic chemicals, electronics and automobiles are also the top industries.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7aa967da566899dc1b91a298dc9aa22\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3) From the perspective of expected adjustment, cyclical industries are more dominant</b></p><p>After the annual report (April 30th), Kechuang 50 and CSI 500 are expected to have the largest upward revision among all broad-based indexes, and the Shanghai Composite Index is also upward revised by 1%, ranking third. GEM, CSI 1000 and National Securities 2000 ranked in the bottom three respectively. Compared with styles, the performance of cyclical industries has the largest upward trend, while the growth has the largest downward revision. This is slightly contradictory to our observation in the previous table, that is, although growth stocks have the fastest growth rate, the performance has been revised downward since the annual report, indicating that the current upward trend of growth stocks is differentiated rather than universal, while the decline of cyclical industries is temporary. The second quarterly report is approaching, and we think the opportunities of cyclical industries will be more certain.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18b1a8759585b1503e5b5c338732eb47\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After comparing the annual report, the performance adjustment rankings are compared by industries as follows: steel, consumer services, automobiles, transportation, petroleum and petrochemicals rank first, machinery, non-ferrous metals, coal and light industry manufacturing are also raised to a certain extent, while commerce and retail, media, comprehensive, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, communication and computer rank last.</p><p>In this ranking, we think it is still necessary to discuss the prices of commodities. For example, if the prices of basic metals, coal and crude oil go up, it will bring profit pressure to the middle reaches of industries with sensitive raw materials such as steel, automobiles, machinery, light industry, chemicals and home appliances. If the prices in the upstream of the cycle are stable or downward, the profit growth rate of the above industries may continue to be revised upward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eab95b14ca44af05bd3574782eb630fb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Our attitude is: the expansion of this economic cycle is not over yet, and the incentive for the upward trend of commodity prices: the core variable of relatively limited capacity expansion for 7-10 consecutive years has not changed. Assuming that the downstream output continues to go up, the upward pressure of upstream raw materials will always exist. Therefore,<b>In terms of profit forecast of the sector, we tend to think that the interim results of non-ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and coal in the upstream of the partial cycle are more certain.</b></p><p><b>4) From the perspective of valuation, the valuation repair potential of big finance should not be ignored</b></p><p>According to the understanding of the economic cycle, when the CPI goes up and the market yield goes up, it is expected that the financial industry will be affected by the increase of interest spread and its profit will improve. Therefore, big finance with low valuation is expected to be repaired in the second half of the year. We observe the primary industry in the PE/PB quantile matrix. At present, the PB valuation of bank stocks is at the lowest level in history, and we expect that the ROE of the banking industry in Q2 this year will increase relatively obviously year-on-year (compared with the expected increase from Q2 last year). The insurance industry's premium income is poor this year, but because the sector has not performed in the past two years, the poor fundamentals have been fully digested in the stock price, and there is room for valuation repair in the second half of the year. Brokers have experienced a year of weak shock since July last year, and the current valuation is also very low (together with insurance below 10% of the historical quantile). Considering the advancement of the domestic registration system tide and the better asset quality of securities firms than insurance and banks, we believe that this sector will also perform well in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb102b56576b2cd57a6eae54e0b220\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Comprehensive growth, expected adjustment and valuation,<b>We are optimistic about science and technology innovation board, upstream cycle and big finance as the first choice recommendations in the second half of the year. At the same time, according to the previous calculation, the Shanghai Stock Exchange is expected to rise to the height of 4200-4300 points within the year.</b></p><p><b>3. Hong Kong stocks: gaining momentum for a long time, challenging new highs</b></p><p><b>1. Hang Seng Index is expected to break through this round of new highs in the second half of 2021</b></p><p>The market expects that the EPS growth rate of Hang Seng Index (HSI) will be 11% in 2021 and-2% in 2022. This performance is not as good as that of A shares, but its revenue side is not bad, with a year-on-year growth rate of 19% and 12%. The goal of some large Internet companies this year is still to pursue the growth rate of income rather than the profit end, which is part of the reason. In addition, the real estate and financial parts of the Hang Seng Index account for a relatively high proportion, which also drags down the growth of profits to some extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47d2c33a8ab907c4dbbc675ba9d18aff\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The chart below is the PB swing range of the Hang Seng Index (HSI) valuation over history. We use this to calculate the target level of Hang Seng Index in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecfb432d4084946f04aa13b02bf99f2e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the previous report, we explained that because the stability of net assets is better (compared with EPS and Dividend) from the historical volatility, we usually consider PB valuation or Dividend rate when predicting the low or high of Hang Seng Index. We use the increase in PB at each Kitchen cycle expansion and take the median to calculate the PB upper limit of the Hang Seng Index in the second half of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1790400270c6074c7d80d6f82d5782e6\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since 2002, the PB expansion of HSI in each Kitchen cycle has been 49%, 85%, 74%, 29% and 63% respectively, with a median of 63% and an average of 60%. We get that the PB cap of the Hang Seng Index in the second half of the year is 1.39 times.</p><p>PB2021 upper limit =0.87* (1+60%) =1.39</p><p>According to analysts' estimates of net assets of 21,784 points and 23,387 points in 2021-2022, the target level for the HSI is:</p><p>Neutral: 21784 (BPS2021) *1.39=30,374 points;</p><p>Optimistic (considering the valuation switch to 2022): 23,387 (BPS2022) *1.39=32,610 points.</p><p><b>Therefore, we judge that the target price of Hang Seng Index will run around 31,000-32,000 points in the second half of the year, that is, it has the potential to hit a new high in this round.</b></p><p><b>Review of the trend in the first half of the year</b></p><p>At the beginning of the year, we summarized five major directions in the Summary of Hong Kong Stocks in 2020: \"Looking forward to 2021, the direction of finding excess returns may be: 1. The new economy is still the main battlefield, especially the opportunity that the investment targets under the interference of anti-monopoly policies and U.S. policies will\" panic-wrong-kill-new high \"; 2. Sub-new shares will bring more investment clues; 3. The upward trend of risk appetite will help the valuation of large and small market capitalization converge; 4. With the recovery of the epidemic situation, the procyclical plate will narrow the performance difference between the plates; 5. The landing of the boots of the US ban on investment will bring opportunities for valuation repair of the listed companies. \"</p><p><b>review In the first half of this year, Hong Kong stocks went through three stages: rising, falling and rebounding.</b></p><p>The first stage is before the Spring Festival, when technology stocks and biotechnology stocks take the lead. At the highest, the Hang Seng Technology Index reached a 29% increase;</p><p>The second stage is from the Spring Festival to the beginning of May. Under the rapid rise of U.S. bond yields and the influence of Internet antitrust, the Hang Seng Technology Index pullback/retracement sharply, with the yield falling from 29% to-11%, and the Hang Seng Index falling below 28,000 points;</p><p>The third stage is from late May to June. With the stability of the yield of U.S. bonds and the continuous absorption of many influences of antitrust by the market, the major indexes began to rebound. The best performer was the biotechnology sector (25%), followed by local stocks in Hong Kong (9%), followed by Southbound (7%), with the HSCEI and Hang Seng Technology underperforming the Hang Seng Index.</p><p>1) From the perspective of mainland investors, Hong Kong stocks are a supplement to the A-share market, and Hang Seng Technology and Hang Seng Biotechnology are the two major tracks that investors are most concerned about. Last year, Hang Seng Technology's large increase, coupled with the influence of antitrust, brought some investors to take profits, while Hang Seng Biotechnology took over the baton and performed well. We believe that in the long run, the new economy will still be the main battlefield, and Hang Seng Technology and Biotechnology will perform well. In May, E Fund<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03032\">Hang Seng Technology ETF</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03088\">China Hang Seng Technology</a>ETF, Dacheng Hang Seng Technology ETF, Huaan Hang Seng Technology ETF, Huatai-PineBridge CSOP Hang Seng Technology ETF, Boshi Hang Seng Technology ETF and Harvest Hang Seng Technology ETF have all been released. Mainland investors can buy Hang Seng Technology Index through these ETFs, thus solving the similar problem that Hong Kong stocks don't cover<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The investment restrictions of a large number of stocks such as Baidu, JD.COM and Bilibili.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68eb45ddb4ce3535a01e50d120d05fbb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2) From the perspective of style, it can be seen that since the beginning of the year, if it has outperformed the Hang Seng Index, in terms of style, the positions are required to be concentrated in Hang Seng small-cap stocks, small-and medium-cap stocks and medium-cap stocks, rather than large-cap stocks and medium-and large-cap stocks. At present, the valuation of Hang Seng large-cap stocks and Hang Seng small-cap stocks is still converging. According to historical statistics, when the PB difference between them turns positive, it is the end point of valuation correction (and often the end point of bull market), which also shows that in the current market, opportunities far outweigh risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/243c73a9ab5bd7175cf2bbb9696c2a90\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>3) From the perspective of industry, in addition to the medical sector, the upstream of this year's cycle shines brightly. Among them, the performance of the energy industry ranked first, the raw materials industry ranked third, and the comprehensive industry and Hang Seng Industry also performed well. Lower-ranked sectors are essential consumption, information technology and finance. We are still very optimistic about resource products. As the prices of bulk commodities have risen greatly compared with last year, for example, the price of crude oil has risen to a new high since the epidemic, the CRB index has risen by 50% year-on-year, the copper price has risen by 93% year-on-year, and the aluminum price has risen by 65% year-on-year. Therefore, there is a high probability that the second quarterly reports of these sectors have a good quarterly performance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f39b662e4346eb7fe12c2a1c4e0ee3a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>4) According to the industry performance statistics of 524 companies in Hong Kong Stock Connect, coal has increased astonishingly, followed by iron and steel, basic chemicals, medicine, textiles and clothing, media, non-ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and the bottom-ranked sectors are mainly electric power equipment, building materials, catering and tourism, national defense and military industry, non-bank finance, home appliances, automobiles, comprehensive, food and beverage and other industries.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f41709bcfaf17d58d7bc64db1f58f10\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>5) From the perspective of the banned investment list, the income in the first half of the year is gratifying. We judged at the beginning of the year that the investment ban company would perform well this year. As of June 2021, the average gain of companies on the ban list was 35%, and the median was 19%, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index. Nevertheless, we believe that many of these companies, such as telecom operators and oil companies, are still valued at low levels and have considerable upside.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb224b98db6f930b71d86e0064aa51e2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1068\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Changes in market expectations: cycle dominance, catering/computer downward adjustment</b></p><p>Profit expectation: Compared with before and after the annual report, the net profit expectation of steel, military industry, petroleum and petrochemical, banking, home appliances, electronic components, construction, non-bank finance and other industries in 2021 is revised upward, while the performance of catering and tourism, computers, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, machinery, building materials, food and beverage, commerce and retail, communication and media sectors is revised downward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54a90ee526b9ce63212c201fa34bcf95\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Revenue expectation: Compared with before and after the annual report, the 2021 revenue expectation of several industries, such as national defense and military industry, steel, building materials, home appliances, coal, automobiles, power equipment, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, electronic components and transportation, was revised upward; The revenue forecast of catering, tourism, computer, media and other industries is revised downward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e9b63b0b8664d387a63e0adadb04454\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Valuation comparison: textile and clothing hit a new high, and real estate industry chain hit a new low</b></p><p>Compared with the data of the last five years, the current valuation of Hong Kong Stock Connect is 24% (median), among which textile and clothing, steel, basic chemicals, petroleum and petrochemical sectors are higher, while real estate, construction, building materials, light manufacturing, non-bank finance, media, catering and tourism, home appliances, transportation and other industries are significantly lower than the average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebbf6b4ade68ddd8330d2405d7ca52b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Capital inflow/outflow in recent months: some midstream are still inflowing, indicating that the market is still in a bull market</p><p>Judging from the recent capital inflow, many sectors in the middle reaches have further increased their positions, while the big finance and upstream cycle are temporarily weak. In fact, this structure is more indicative of the economic recovery is still on the way rather than the end. At the end of the bull market, the situation should be the opposite: that is, the midstream outflows, while the big financial and cyclical upstream funds accelerate the inflow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfeea16da7ba61796acf24bcae1f0cb2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Investment advice</b></p><p>1. On the whole, when the CPI goes up, the low valuation will be repaired to a certain extent. Such as big finance, real estate, public utilities and telecom operators. Comparatively speaking, we think big finance is better. The reason is that a) banks and securities firms have made a large provision in 2020, and this year's performance has improved more obviously year-on-year; b) they are undervalued; c) Widening interest spreads have a boost to their earnings expectations; The cost of acquiring land in the real estate industry this year is relatively high, which is manifested by a higher degree of land premium, and the cost of construction and installation is also higher at a high level of commodities. Therefore, we think that although the valuation of real estate companies is low at present, their attractiveness is slightly less than that of companies in the industrial chain. The development of the construction industry is subject to the scale of government investment. At present, their future growth rate will further slow down;</p><p>2. As far as the second quarterly report is concerned, cyclical industries, especially companies in the upstream of the cycle, are more likely to exceed expectations. Petroleum, coal, non-ferrous metals and other sectors will perform better with the high (or even further upward) commodity prices. Here, the midstream sectors such as automobiles, machinery, electronics and home appliances may rise first and then fall. The reason is that the upward trend of commodity prices in the late stage of economic expansion leads to the narrowing of their profits, and the transmission of prices to the downstream is not as easy as that in the early and mid-stage of economic expansion;</p><p>3. In this round of economic cycle, due to the comprehensive impact of epidemic situation and economic transformation (double circulation), consumer stocks represented by Hang Seng Technology, biotechnology and brand clothing, especially those companies that exist uniquely in Hong Kong stocks, will show good investment value in the past and future. At present, Hang Seng Technology needs to rebound. We believe that the pressure of antitrust has been fully digested in the stock price in the first half of the year. The current valuation of biotechnology/medical devices/textiles and clothing is not low, but there are short-term catalytic factors, policy or performance. We think their trend is similar to the middle reaches, and Q3 will still perform well, while Q4 will become less attractive because of its high valuation.</p><p>To sum up, we believe that big finance, upstream cycle and Hang Seng Technology are the three major directions we are optimistic about in the second half of the year. In addition, new energy, semiconductors, biopharmaceuticals, textiles and apparel will also be trend opportunities before and after the semi-annual report. Due to the repeated epidemic, the recovery of the gaming sector will take time, and it is expected that there will be obvious opportunities in Q4.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99730b5306b832b0265537f4b7424a7d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>V. Risk warning</b></p><p>The risk of a lower-than-expected macroeconomic recovery, the risk of repeated pandemics, the uncertainty of Sino-US trade relations, and the risk of technology wars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b6b690532d93e57e2dac2a054def226\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>This article is selected from \"Xueheng's Overseas Observations\", author: Wang Xueheng; Zhitong Finance Editor: Zhuang Lijia.</b></p>","source":"w19319","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investment strategy of Hong Kong stocks in the second half of the year! Hang Seng Index has a chance to challenge this round of new highs</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestment strategy of Hong Kong stocks in the second half of the year! Hang Seng Index has a chance to challenge this round of new highs\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">学恒的海外观察</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 09:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>From the perspective of growth, science and technology innovation and cycle dominate; From the interim report performance, the cycle is better; From the valuation point of view, big finance has new attraction.<b>Abstract</b></p><p><b>Global: Early to Discuss TAPER, U.S. Stocks Still in Slow Bull</b></p><p>Although Taper's voice is endless, it is not easy for boots to land: on the one hand, the short-term GDP, CPI, consumption, housing prices and other data in the United States are constantly rising; on the other hand, the decline of real hourly wages, the slow recovery of jobs, the high proportion of stocks in residents' wealth, and the negative impact of the Biden administration's tax increase on corporate investment and recruitment need to be fully considered by the Federal Reserve. Therefore, we don't think Taper is an overnight achievement, and the preliminary judgment will only have a clearer signal in Q4 2021/Q1 2022; The yield of U.S. bonds rose too fast at the beginning of the year, fully digesting the impact of inflation. Although we judge that the yield is still fluctuating upward, we believe that 1.9-2.0% is the threshold for U.S. stocks to turn. Based on the earnings in 2022, below 4,500 points (our target level for this round of US stock bull market), S&P still runs in the valuation framework of the past decade and is not significantly overvalued.</p><p><b>Domestic: The market around the second quarterly report has begun</b></p><p>The upward trend of medium-and long-term loans to enterprises proves that the economic cycle is still expanding. We preliminarily judge that the output (industrial added value year-on-year) and M1 year-on-year will start to rebound in June and July.</p><p>From June, CPI and PPI will converge, meaning that manufacturing earnings will improve. With the gradual upward trend of CPI, the confidence of the market will continue to be improved.</p><p>Taking the past decade as a reference, the current valuation of A shares is not high, and the valuation of most broad-based indexes (2022) is only the average level. Therefore, we believe that in the period of economic cycle expansion, the market is expected to break through the current new high, with a target of 4200-4300 points in the second half of the year.</p><p>From the perspective of growth, science and technology innovation and cycle dominate; From the interim report performance, the cycle is better; From the valuation point of view, big finance has new attraction.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Investment Advice: Long-standing Momentum, Challenging New Highs</b></p><p>We adjust the target range of 31,000-32,000 points of the Hang Seng Index in 2021, which means that the Hang Seng Index has the opportunity to challenge this round of new highs;</p><p>We believe that while the market goes up in the second half of the year, it will also be accompanied by a rotation situation. The sectors with better semi-annual reports or other fundamentals are mainly textiles and clothing, medicine, metals and energy. Secondly, the interim reports of Hang Seng Technology and Big Finance are expected to meet expectations and the stock price is oversold, which will also have obvious valuation repair.</p><p>After the second quarterly report or Q4, the valuation of some sectors is too high, coupled with the uncertainty of taper and funds at the end of the year, which makes it impossible to continuously improve the risk appetite. At this time, we should pay attention to resource stocks whose prices may continue to rise, bank stocks with low valuation, gaming stocks with lagging recovery expectations, telecom operators and local stocks in Hong Kong with less impact on the economic cycle.</p><p><b>Risk warning</b></p><p>The risk of a lower-than-expected macroeconomic recovery, the risk of repeated pandemics, the uncertainty of Sino-US trade relations, and the risk of technology wars.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>1. Global: It's too early to discuss TAPER, and U.S. stocks are still in a slow bull</b></p><p><b>1. By the end of the year, the vaccination rate in some countries will exceed 70%</b></p><p>The global new epidemic situation has recently stabilized at 300,000-400,000 cases per day, a significant decrease compared with the beginning of the year, among which the new cases in major developed countries have decreased significantly compared with the beginning of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ef09015d57bc577bb7a93bb846c2381\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4256b27b5673e8fb532e714b91541b91\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>in May and June, according to the data of our world in data, the vaccination rate (one dose) in some countries has accelerated significantly. At the current rate, before winter, the vaccination rate in most countries with conditions can exceed 70%, that is, the WHO recognized<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>Level of vaccination rate for immunization effects. The rate of vaccination in China is even more alarming. It has now exceeded 1 billion doses, and with 20 million vaccinations per day, it is also expected to reach a vaccination rate of more than 70% by the end of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba455f4b2fc4f3e96e0539d81b0cb3f3\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. The World Bank revised the global GDP growth rate up to 5.6%</b></p><p><b>1) Upward revision of the global economy in 2021</b></p><p>In January, the World Bank forecast global GDP growth to be only 4.1%. In June, the World Bank revised global GDP growth upward to 5.6%, the strongest recovery from a recession in 80 years, driven largely by 6.8% growth in the US and 8.5% growth in China. The IMF is more optimistic, believing that global GDP growth will reach 6% (its forecast at the beginning of the year was 5.15%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/507d0e153840bb4f705f60f90a813461\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Both of them have similar expectations for China's economic growth. The World Bank expects China's GDP growth rate in 2021 to be 8.5%, and the IMF expects it to be 8.4%; The World Bank expects U.S. GDP growth to be 6.8% in 2021, and the IMF expects 6.4%.</p><p><b>2) The GDP gap between China and the United States has narrowed</b></p><p>During the epidemic, China's GDP continued to grow, while the GDP of the United States declined, which narrowed the GDP gap between China and the United States. If the gap is expressed by (United States-China) /United States, the GDP gap between China and the United States was 30% in 2020. The IMF estimates that, regardless of the impact of RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, the GDP gap between China and the United States will narrow to 16% by 2026, which was 60% in 2010 and 40% in 2016.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b444982fe1c0d1748b4110b2b21b14e4\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Against the background of narrowing the GDP gap between the two countries, the U.S. government has frequently released various pressures on China since Biden took office as president of the United States. On June 8, the U.S. Senate passed the U.S. Innovation and Competition Act of 2021, which CNN said is intended to invest more than $200 billion in U.S. technology, science and research to counter China's growing influence.</p><p>On the other hand, the 2021 White Paper on American Enterprises in China released by AmCham-China in June shows that the Chinese market remains a strong attraction for American companies. More than half (52%) of U.S. companies in China mentioned that the number one business opportunity in China was \"the growth of domestic consumption and the rise of an increasingly large wealthy middle class\", more than two-thirds of U.S. companies regarded China as a priority market, and 85% did not intend to relocate manufacturing or procurement processes outside China. The white paper also shows that nearly 61 percent of U.S. companies believe China will continue to open its market to foreign investment. The sense of gain of American enterprises in China has been further enhanced. For example, in the financial field, American companies have obtained the license to carry out all-round business in China; In food and agriculture, China has revised regulations to allow more American products into China, among other things.</p><p><b>3. The US economic cycle is still in the expansion stage</b></p><p><b>1) Enlightenment from the U.S. Economic Framework: Balance between Inflation and Stagflation</b></p><p>In the economic framework of the United States, interest rate policy or personal income is transmitted to consumer expenditure, which takes two or three quarters. Then the rise of consumption will bring about the prosperity of industrial production and services, and the improvement of corporate profits, which will take another one or two quarters.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47a2af46ec117739d1459c097dde5dde\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Then, expecting the upward prosperity in the future, enterprises began to increase capital expenditure, and actively recruited workers (this is after 2-4 quarters), thus pushing inflation upward. At this time, the Federal Reserve intervened against inflation to ensure the healthy development of the economy.</p><p>In this system, if you intervene too late, it may make inflation grow; But if it intervenes too early, it will douse the recovering economy in its cradle. How to judge this rhythm has always been a \"big problem\". On the left side is inflation and on the right side is deflation.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>Must move carefully on the balance beam.</p><p><b>2) Some contradictions in the current U.S. economic data</b></p><p>On the one hand, the prosperity of consumption and output in the United States is undoubtedly on the rise: personal consumption expenditure is on the rise (also attributed to last year's low base), and the consumer confidence index has returned to the best level since the epidemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c984927723e729dc26b3d0bd56102c50\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Manufacturing PMI oscillated upward, with services PMI already surpassing pre-pandemic highs in May.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06899913e56c9f14274fd575748c7073\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The sales of existing houses have been at a new high in ten years year-on-year, and house prices have accelerated. Many media reports in the United States have reported the phenomenon of \"difficult to find a house\" and \"increasing the price of buying a house\" everywhere.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c22aaa51435ed2745ae7fe639f3f719f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, the market's expectations for the macroeconomic data of the United States have been revised upward for several months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/789c9420c8b167c7a431c7aaa52e412c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"251\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/545c4a3e4d8c168ad26cc85898a91521\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But on the other hand, behind the glamorous data, there are also many hidden worries:</p><p><b>One is the decline in real hourly wages.</b>As the real hourly wage determines the real purchasing power of consumers, in this economic recovery, due to the inability of supply-side production capacity to keep up in time and the upward trend of commodity prices caused by the excessive issuance of US dollars, CPI took the lead in strengthening, which made the nominal hourly wage rise and the real hourly wage decline. Historically, real hourly wage, as a reliable leading indicator of American residents' consumption (of course, this is mainly on the premise of relatively stable employment situation), is not clear at present.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5574774b629c3937a2d6c41738554902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, employment recovery still needs to be observed.</b>Covid has cost 22 million jobs in the U.S., according to the U.S. Department of Labor. So far, it has only recovered to pre-pandemic levels of 67%, and there is an 8 million job gap. As recently as April, new non-farm employment in the United States was significantly lower than market expectations, and May only met the low expectations. Some analysts believe that because of the money-casting subsidy, the income of low-income groups when they go to work is equivalent to that of not going to work, which makes some enterprises unable to find employees and finally closes down again. According to CNBC, in the past month, 25 states have announced that they will terminate their additional benefit programs during the pandemic before they officially expire on September 6th. Some states will stop paying additional federal unemployment benefits as early as June 12. These states are all led by Republican governors. They say additional unemployment benefits are causing unemployed workers to prefer to stay at home rather than look for work, which makes it difficult for companies to recruit workers to fill badly needed vacancies. Bradley, chief policy officer of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, argued: \"The disappointing jobs report clearly shows that paying people who don't work is dampening what should have been a stronger job market.\" The impact of stopping federal additional unemployment benefits on subsequent employment is overall positive, but the effect needs to be tracked.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28525bd8d2b0a12655fff844c305910b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The third is about the expectation that the Biden administration will raise taxes.</b>While we expect this plan to be quite difficult to implement, and in order to secure midterm elections, it is unlikely that the Democrats will do much on this issue before the 2022 midterm elections. However, the expectation of tax increases will affect the human resource planning of businesses to some extent. Clark, president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said there is a disagreement with the administration on the need to raise business taxes: \"The proposed tax increase plan will greatly harm American businesses and American working people. This is certainly not the time to put new barriers to economic recovery. The administration is right to advocate for infrastructure, and we want to do it with the government, but there are other ways to fund infrastructure plans.\" The U.S. Chamber of Commerce said it supports infrastructure investment, but prefers funding primarily through infrastructure royalties. McGinty, a spokesman for the American Retail Federation, said the organization opposed raising funds for infrastructure plans through corporate tax increases in a report to the U.S. Senate Finance Committee. In addition, McGinty, spokesman of the American Retail Industry Leaders Association, also said that the association's position against raising taxes on businesses has not changed.</p><p><b>Fourth, the proportion of the US stock market in residents' assets is too high, and the decline of the stock market will seriously dampen residents' consumption enthusiasm.</b>There are two types of wealth related to stock assets of American residents, one is direct investment, and the other is through pension plans (finally entering the stock market and bond market). Both of them account for an astonishing 57% of residents' wealth (at the highest level in history). Compared with Chinese residents' wealth, the largest category is real estate, which accounts for only 24% of American residents' assets. Historically, consumption and the stock market are mutually causal: the stock market falls → residents' wealth shrinks → consumption is more conservative → corporate profits fall → the stock market falls. At present, the total market capitalization of U.S. stocks is about $45 trillion, which is about 202% of the expected 2021 GDP of the United States ($22.2 trillion). According to Rastved's estimates in The Inescapable Economic Cycle, a decline in the stock market will have an impact coefficient of about 4% on GDP. That is, if the U.S. stock market falls by 20% (this is only a Kitchen cycle level adjustment), the negative effect of a single stock market decline on GDP can reach 202%*20%*4% = -1.6%, regardless of the extended effects such as shrinking capital expenditure, inventory impairment and real estate decline of enterprises. Generally speaking, in a large stock market decline (such as 1/3 to half), and the real estate market is also affected (such as 1/5 to 1/3), the comprehensive impact on the GDP of that year is about-15%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/382235a0385c82b548308426f12a5ca7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Fed Chairman Powell said at an FOMC press conference in April that the Fed \"<b>Will ensure that monetary policy continues to provide strong support for the economy until the recovery is completed</b>”。 Currently, investors expect the Fed to announce a QE taper at the annual meeting of global central banks at Jackson Hole in August. The latest Reuters survey also shows that the Federal Reserve may announce its strategy to cut its large-scale bond purchase program in August or September, but it is not expected to start cutting its monthly purchases until early next year.</p><p>And we still repeat this view: In the current U.S. economy, once TAPER is implemented, the situation of moderate recovery will likely end. Therefore, it is necessary for the Federal Reserve to continue to pay cautious attention to inflation (Q2/Q3) and employment data (June, July and August), especially the impact on employment after some state governments cancelled the bailout in July and August.</p><p><b>3) The flattening of U.S. debt shows that the market's expectation of inflation has been digested</b></p><p>Although the CPI and core CPI of the United States both reached a new high in May, the inflation expectation (10-year U.S. bond yield-10-year TIPS yield) fell, and the 10-year Treasury Bond yield of the United States oscillated flat, which all shows that the expectation of inflation has been digested by the market, and the next step is to continue to track the inflation level in the third quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcb17db63daecb5e450b90e31da6b24d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>We have quantitatively measured the key positions where the upward trend of U.S. bond yields in this round will have an impact on the stock market. The method is to observe the impact of the number and magnitude of rate hike in the historical interest rate hike cycle (the target interest rate of federal funds in this round remains unchanged, which is slightly different from history, but the upward trend of market interest rate is the same) on the peak of the stock market. We measured the result: The U.S. bull market came to an end when the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 1.9-2.0%.</p><p><b>4. The upward trend of commodities will continue</b></p><p>We are pleased to recall that in the annual strategy report released in 2019 before the launch of this round of commodities, we mentioned: \"The global mid-cycle-real estate cycle and commodity cycle are all in the expansion stage, and the short-cycle-Kitchen cycle has also hit a low point and turned to expansion. The combined resonance of the mid-cycle and the short-cycle will promote the rise of cyclical asset prices\". So far, our judgment that the global economy is in an expansion phase remains unchanged.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f69ac8fd633ab057903ac98c0ff9bd7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As the average expansion time of commodity cycle is 24-26 months, the upward trend of this round of commodities will end in the second quarter of 2022. In addition, we compared the relationship between commodity index and S&P 500. Similar to A shares, S&P 500 is ahead of CRB index by about 0-3 months (just like Shanghai Composite Index is ahead of PPI). Therefore, we preliminarily calculate that US stocks will rise to around the first quarter of 2022.</p><p>U.S. stocks are still running in the valuation framework of the past decade</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c409da511bbb7b9010d35341123123e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>With the upward revision of economic expectations, the S&P 500's net income was also revised upward. At present, the market expects that the growth rate of S&P 500EPS from 2021 to 2022 will be 40% and 9% respectively; The ROE was 19.7% and 19.4%, respectively; EPS was 194,211, respectively (compared to 170,197 at the end of last year when we wrote our strategy report, which was 14% and 7% higher, respectively).</p><p>As we have introduced, at present, the United States maintains a lower yield on U.S. bonds than before the epidemic. According to the PE ceiling of S&P 500 in 2008-2019, 21.4-21.5 times PE (excluding the extreme impact of the 2008 financial crisis and the 20-year epidemic), if the target price of S&P 500 is given, we can get:</p><p>SPX Price Target 2021=194*21.4=4151 pips;</p><p>If you take into account the valuation switch to 2022, you get:</p><p>SPX Price Target 2022=211*21.4=4515 pips;</p><p><b>Therefore, we believe that this year and next, before the S&P 500 fluctuates up to 4,500 points, US stocks will still run in the valuation channel of the last decade without being greatly overvalued. Of course, when talking about overvaluation, we must discuss U.S. bond yields, TAPER and QE, and the position of the economic cycle, which we have explained earlier.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c227e1cc13a265388c5f10645737f46\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, A shares: the market around the second quarterly report has begun</b></p><p><b>1. The upward trend of medium-and long-term loans to enterprises proves that the economy is still expanding</b></p><p>In May, M2 stopped declining year-on-year, and began to show the characteristics of stable bottom. Medium-and long-term loans continued to grow very steadily, indicating strong demand for manufacturing credit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d13ac00c05eda5dbb8e68726c0f726d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Dismantling social finance subjects, the recent obvious decline is local government special bonds, corporate bonds and trust loans. The downward background of corporate bonds is that this year, the central government required to resolve the hidden debt risks of local governments, and multi-departments jointly took action to strengthen supervision and curb the growth of hidden debt; This year, local government special bonds have decreased slightly by 280 billion yuan compared with last year. Referring to the recent new local government debt limit of 4,267.6 billion yuan issued by the Ministry of Finance in 2021 (including 800 billion yuan in general debt limit and 3,467.6 billion yuan in special debt limit), it is lower than the previous budget of 4,47 billion yuan approved by the Fourth Session of the 13th National People's Congress (including 3,75 billion yuan in special debt limit); The decline of trust loans is inevitable. This year is the last year of the transition period of the new asset management regulations, and the trust industry is still looking for transformation and innovation. From this point of view, this year's social financing is characterized by: the financing demand of government and local financing platforms has slowed down, the financing of real estate/trust has also been suppressed, and the loan demand of manufacturing industry is strong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f845a54283fd13c73447217a3dbe8b53\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>We estimate that M1 year-on-year and industrial added value year-on-year have either touched or approached the low of the whole year and will rise with the upward trend of the economic cycle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/533c0d730d72abbfdc5353dd14f6d770\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>M2 does not count fiscal deposits (May last year coincided with the peak period of fiscal deposits), so we think that the decline of social financing is more temporary than that of M2.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a462618d750770032e117dc050724701\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, domestic funds are relatively loose, MLF has not gone up since the epidemic last year, the yield of wealth management continues to decline, and the credit spread declines (AA +, AAA is more obvious than AA).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/403868625533e7493faa8e6a393fe62e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Starting from June, the gap between CPI and PPI will converge</b></p><p>In the first half of this year, PPI was under great upward pressure. During the tracking process in the previous months, we also felt that the upward trend of PPI repeatedly exceeded market expectations. Last May was the lowest point of PPI for the whole year, so in terms of form, since June, PPI has undoubtedly begun to decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f3ed224ba421077d14bb149aaadba9b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since the beginning of this year, CPI has been dragged down by the downward trend of pig prices this year, but according to subject observation, transportation and communication, education, culture and entertainment, housing, as well as food, tobacco and alcohol have all begun to improve significantly. We estimate that CPI will remain resilient and steadily upward in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e7d6b010c508c34a936f1c6c30c502f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But on the other hand, the downward trend of PPI represents the slowdown of inflationary pressure, which is conducive to the earnings repair of the manufacturing industry. But this does not mean that inflationary pressures are gone. Because in a commodity cycle, with the improvement of demand, the production capacity on the supply side can't be significantly expanded in a short period of time, and the current inventory of cyclical products is generally not high. With the de-inventory, there is still room for further upward movement in commodity prices.</p><p><b>3. The valuation of A shares is not high, and the plate where the interim report is expected to be updated is locked</b></p><p><b>1) On the whole, the current valuation of A shares is not high</b></p><p>Let's take the valuation level of the past ten years as a reference to observe the current valuation level of A shares.</p><p>The current valuation of Wind Full A is 20.3 times. If the valuation switching is considered, the PE level in 2022 will drop back to the average with the growth of performance. CSI 300 is currently valued at 14.5 times. If the valuation switching is considered, the PE level will also fall back to the average level in 2022 with the growth of performance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85ce88cba8d0e32d600ac041e40ba96e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The current valuation of Shanghai Composite Index is 14.2 times, which is at the average level. If the valuation switching is considered, the corresponding PE in 2022 will be lower than the average; The current valuation level of GEM is slightly higher by 59.0 times, but it is also below +1 standard deviation. Because the growth rate of GEM is higher, its corresponding PE in 2022 is lower than the average, taking into account the valuation switching.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00c5057cc381cafd3af77d267f468623\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The current valuation of CSI 500 is at a low level among all major broad-based indices, with a valuation of only-1 standard deviation on average, which is less than-1 standard deviation if the growth rate in 2022 is taken into account; The SSE 50 valuation level is at a relatively high level, slightly above the historical average given the growth in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6717030e153e34f4d57acbfb01d4b00\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>To sum up, from the ten-year cycle, the current valuation level of A shares is not high. Once the valuation switch is considered in the second half of the year, the current valuation is only the historical average. If we measure the upside of A shares, we measure it at the highest level of 16-16.2 times PE of the customary Shanghai Composite Index at the beginning of the year. Considering the factors including the valuation switch in 2022, the estimated upside target range is about 4200-4300 points. The above consideration is based on the fact that the expansion of the economic cycle has not yet ended, and the main driving force for the upward trend comes from performance improvement rather than valuation expansion.<b>From the perspective of broad-based index, CSI 500 is more attractive than CSI 300 and SSE 50.</b></p><p><b>2) From the perspective of growth, the performance growth rate of science and technology innovation and cycle this year is more obvious</b></p><p>From the observation of performance growth rate, this year's growth rate of science and technology innovation ranks first in the broad-based index, with a growth rate of 70% in 21 years compared with 20 years, followed by small market capitalization companies, National Securities 2000, CSI 1000, CSI 500 and GEM 50. Combined with the current valuation level and rebound, science and technology innovation board and CSI 500 are more cost-effective. In style, what still can't be ignored this year is the profit growth rate of cyclical industries, which is better than growth (74%) by 82% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a8427a42d4a8c2422e6397f9c3383f8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From the perspective of industry, in addition to last year's low-base transportation, media, consumer services and retail, nonferrous metals and black are the top industries this year, and computers, basic chemicals, electronics and automobiles are also the top industries.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7aa967da566899dc1b91a298dc9aa22\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3) From the perspective of expected adjustment, cyclical industries are more dominant</b></p><p>After the annual report (April 30th), Kechuang 50 and CSI 500 are expected to have the largest upward revision among all broad-based indexes, and the Shanghai Composite Index is also upward revised by 1%, ranking third. GEM, CSI 1000 and National Securities 2000 ranked in the bottom three respectively. Compared with styles, the performance of cyclical industries has the largest upward trend, while the growth has the largest downward revision. This is slightly contradictory to our observation in the previous table, that is, although growth stocks have the fastest growth rate, the performance has been revised downward since the annual report, indicating that the current upward trend of growth stocks is differentiated rather than universal, while the decline of cyclical industries is temporary. The second quarterly report is approaching, and we think the opportunities of cyclical industries will be more certain.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18b1a8759585b1503e5b5c338732eb47\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After comparing the annual report, the performance adjustment rankings are compared by industries as follows: steel, consumer services, automobiles, transportation, petroleum and petrochemicals rank first, machinery, non-ferrous metals, coal and light industry manufacturing are also raised to a certain extent, while commerce and retail, media, comprehensive, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, communication and computer rank last.</p><p>In this ranking, we think it is still necessary to discuss the prices of commodities. For example, if the prices of basic metals, coal and crude oil go up, it will bring profit pressure to the middle reaches of industries with sensitive raw materials such as steel, automobiles, machinery, light industry, chemicals and home appliances. If the prices in the upstream of the cycle are stable or downward, the profit growth rate of the above industries may continue to be revised upward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eab95b14ca44af05bd3574782eb630fb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Our attitude is: the expansion of this economic cycle is not over yet, and the incentive for the upward trend of commodity prices: the core variable of relatively limited capacity expansion for 7-10 consecutive years has not changed. Assuming that the downstream output continues to go up, the upward pressure of upstream raw materials will always exist. Therefore,<b>In terms of profit forecast of the sector, we tend to think that the interim results of non-ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and coal in the upstream of the partial cycle are more certain.</b></p><p><b>4) From the perspective of valuation, the valuation repair potential of big finance should not be ignored</b></p><p>According to the understanding of the economic cycle, when the CPI goes up and the market yield goes up, it is expected that the financial industry will be affected by the increase of interest spread and its profit will improve. Therefore, big finance with low valuation is expected to be repaired in the second half of the year. We observe the primary industry in the PE/PB quantile matrix. At present, the PB valuation of bank stocks is at the lowest level in history, and we expect that the ROE of the banking industry in Q2 this year will increase relatively obviously year-on-year (compared with the expected increase from Q2 last year). The insurance industry's premium income is poor this year, but because the sector has not performed in the past two years, the poor fundamentals have been fully digested in the stock price, and there is room for valuation repair in the second half of the year. Brokers have experienced a year of weak shock since July last year, and the current valuation is also very low (together with insurance below 10% of the historical quantile). Considering the advancement of the domestic registration system tide and the better asset quality of securities firms than insurance and banks, we believe that this sector will also perform well in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb102b56576b2cd57a6eae54e0b220\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Comprehensive growth, expected adjustment and valuation,<b>We are optimistic about science and technology innovation board, upstream cycle and big finance as the first choice recommendations in the second half of the year. At the same time, according to the previous calculation, the Shanghai Stock Exchange is expected to rise to the height of 4200-4300 points within the year.</b></p><p><b>3. Hong Kong stocks: gaining momentum for a long time, challenging new highs</b></p><p><b>1. Hang Seng Index is expected to break through this round of new highs in the second half of 2021</b></p><p>The market expects that the EPS growth rate of Hang Seng Index (HSI) will be 11% in 2021 and-2% in 2022. This performance is not as good as that of A shares, but its revenue side is not bad, with a year-on-year growth rate of 19% and 12%. The goal of some large Internet companies this year is still to pursue the growth rate of income rather than the profit end, which is part of the reason. In addition, the real estate and financial parts of the Hang Seng Index account for a relatively high proportion, which also drags down the growth of profits to some extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47d2c33a8ab907c4dbbc675ba9d18aff\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The chart below is the PB swing range of the Hang Seng Index (HSI) valuation over history. We use this to calculate the target level of Hang Seng Index in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecfb432d4084946f04aa13b02bf99f2e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the previous report, we explained that because the stability of net assets is better (compared with EPS and Dividend) from the historical volatility, we usually consider PB valuation or Dividend rate when predicting the low or high of Hang Seng Index. We use the increase in PB at each Kitchen cycle expansion and take the median to calculate the PB upper limit of the Hang Seng Index in the second half of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1790400270c6074c7d80d6f82d5782e6\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since 2002, the PB expansion of HSI in each Kitchen cycle has been 49%, 85%, 74%, 29% and 63% respectively, with a median of 63% and an average of 60%. We get that the PB cap of the Hang Seng Index in the second half of the year is 1.39 times.</p><p>PB2021 upper limit =0.87* (1+60%) =1.39</p><p>According to analysts' estimates of net assets of 21,784 points and 23,387 points in 2021-2022, the target level for the HSI is:</p><p>Neutral: 21784 (BPS2021) *1.39=30,374 points;</p><p>Optimistic (considering the valuation switch to 2022): 23,387 (BPS2022) *1.39=32,610 points.</p><p><b>Therefore, we judge that the target price of Hang Seng Index will run around 31,000-32,000 points in the second half of the year, that is, it has the potential to hit a new high in this round.</b></p><p><b>Review of the trend in the first half of the year</b></p><p>At the beginning of the year, we summarized five major directions in the Summary of Hong Kong Stocks in 2020: \"Looking forward to 2021, the direction of finding excess returns may be: 1. The new economy is still the main battlefield, especially the opportunity that the investment targets under the interference of anti-monopoly policies and U.S. policies will\" panic-wrong-kill-new high \"; 2. Sub-new shares will bring more investment clues; 3. The upward trend of risk appetite will help the valuation of large and small market capitalization converge; 4. With the recovery of the epidemic situation, the procyclical plate will narrow the performance difference between the plates; 5. The landing of the boots of the US ban on investment will bring opportunities for valuation repair of the listed companies. \"</p><p><b>review In the first half of this year, Hong Kong stocks went through three stages: rising, falling and rebounding.</b></p><p>The first stage is before the Spring Festival, when technology stocks and biotechnology stocks take the lead. At the highest, the Hang Seng Technology Index reached a 29% increase;</p><p>The second stage is from the Spring Festival to the beginning of May. Under the rapid rise of U.S. bond yields and the influence of Internet antitrust, the Hang Seng Technology Index pullback/retracement sharply, with the yield falling from 29% to-11%, and the Hang Seng Index falling below 28,000 points;</p><p>The third stage is from late May to June. With the stability of the yield of U.S. bonds and the continuous absorption of many influences of antitrust by the market, the major indexes began to rebound. The best performer was the biotechnology sector (25%), followed by local stocks in Hong Kong (9%), followed by Southbound (7%), with the HSCEI and Hang Seng Technology underperforming the Hang Seng Index.</p><p>1) From the perspective of mainland investors, Hong Kong stocks are a supplement to the A-share market, and Hang Seng Technology and Hang Seng Biotechnology are the two major tracks that investors are most concerned about. Last year, Hang Seng Technology's large increase, coupled with the influence of antitrust, brought some investors to take profits, while Hang Seng Biotechnology took over the baton and performed well. We believe that in the long run, the new economy will still be the main battlefield, and Hang Seng Technology and Biotechnology will perform well. In May, E Fund<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03032\">Hang Seng Technology ETF</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03088\">China Hang Seng Technology</a>ETF, Dacheng Hang Seng Technology ETF, Huaan Hang Seng Technology ETF, Huatai-PineBridge CSOP Hang Seng Technology ETF, Boshi Hang Seng Technology ETF and Harvest Hang Seng Technology ETF have all been released. Mainland investors can buy Hang Seng Technology Index through these ETFs, thus solving the similar problem that Hong Kong stocks don't cover<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The investment restrictions of a large number of stocks such as Baidu, JD.COM and Bilibili.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68eb45ddb4ce3535a01e50d120d05fbb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2) From the perspective of style, it can be seen that since the beginning of the year, if it has outperformed the Hang Seng Index, in terms of style, the positions are required to be concentrated in Hang Seng small-cap stocks, small-and medium-cap stocks and medium-cap stocks, rather than large-cap stocks and medium-and large-cap stocks. At present, the valuation of Hang Seng large-cap stocks and Hang Seng small-cap stocks is still converging. According to historical statistics, when the PB difference between them turns positive, it is the end point of valuation correction (and often the end point of bull market), which also shows that in the current market, opportunities far outweigh risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/243c73a9ab5bd7175cf2bbb9696c2a90\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>3) From the perspective of industry, in addition to the medical sector, the upstream of this year's cycle shines brightly. Among them, the performance of the energy industry ranked first, the raw materials industry ranked third, and the comprehensive industry and Hang Seng Industry also performed well. Lower-ranked sectors are essential consumption, information technology and finance. We are still very optimistic about resource products. As the prices of bulk commodities have risen greatly compared with last year, for example, the price of crude oil has risen to a new high since the epidemic, the CRB index has risen by 50% year-on-year, the copper price has risen by 93% year-on-year, and the aluminum price has risen by 65% year-on-year. Therefore, there is a high probability that the second quarterly reports of these sectors have a good quarterly performance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f39b662e4346eb7fe12c2a1c4e0ee3a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>4) According to the industry performance statistics of 524 companies in Hong Kong Stock Connect, coal has increased astonishingly, followed by iron and steel, basic chemicals, medicine, textiles and clothing, media, non-ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and the bottom-ranked sectors are mainly electric power equipment, building materials, catering and tourism, national defense and military industry, non-bank finance, home appliances, automobiles, comprehensive, food and beverage and other industries.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f41709bcfaf17d58d7bc64db1f58f10\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>5) From the perspective of the banned investment list, the income in the first half of the year is gratifying. We judged at the beginning of the year that the investment ban company would perform well this year. As of June 2021, the average gain of companies on the ban list was 35%, and the median was 19%, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index. Nevertheless, we believe that many of these companies, such as telecom operators and oil companies, are still valued at low levels and have considerable upside.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb224b98db6f930b71d86e0064aa51e2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1068\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Changes in market expectations: cycle dominance, catering/computer downward adjustment</b></p><p>Profit expectation: Compared with before and after the annual report, the net profit expectation of steel, military industry, petroleum and petrochemical, banking, home appliances, electronic components, construction, non-bank finance and other industries in 2021 is revised upward, while the performance of catering and tourism, computers, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, machinery, building materials, food and beverage, commerce and retail, communication and media sectors is revised downward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54a90ee526b9ce63212c201fa34bcf95\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Revenue expectation: Compared with before and after the annual report, the 2021 revenue expectation of several industries, such as national defense and military industry, steel, building materials, home appliances, coal, automobiles, power equipment, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, electronic components and transportation, was revised upward; The revenue forecast of catering, tourism, computer, media and other industries is revised downward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e9b63b0b8664d387a63e0adadb04454\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Valuation comparison: textile and clothing hit a new high, and real estate industry chain hit a new low</b></p><p>Compared with the data of the last five years, the current valuation of Hong Kong Stock Connect is 24% (median), among which textile and clothing, steel, basic chemicals, petroleum and petrochemical sectors are higher, while real estate, construction, building materials, light manufacturing, non-bank finance, media, catering and tourism, home appliances, transportation and other industries are significantly lower than the average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebbf6b4ade68ddd8330d2405d7ca52b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Capital inflow/outflow in recent months: some midstream are still inflowing, indicating that the market is still in a bull market</p><p>Judging from the recent capital inflow, many sectors in the middle reaches have further increased their positions, while the big finance and upstream cycle are temporarily weak. In fact, this structure is more indicative of the economic recovery is still on the way rather than the end. At the end of the bull market, the situation should be the opposite: that is, the midstream outflows, while the big financial and cyclical upstream funds accelerate the inflow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfeea16da7ba61796acf24bcae1f0cb2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Investment advice</b></p><p>1. On the whole, when the CPI goes up, the low valuation will be repaired to a certain extent. Such as big finance, real estate, public utilities and telecom operators. Comparatively speaking, we think big finance is better. The reason is that a) banks and securities firms have made a large provision in 2020, and this year's performance has improved more obviously year-on-year; b) they are undervalued; c) Widening interest spreads have a boost to their earnings expectations; The cost of acquiring land in the real estate industry this year is relatively high, which is manifested by a higher degree of land premium, and the cost of construction and installation is also higher at a high level of commodities. Therefore, we think that although the valuation of real estate companies is low at present, their attractiveness is slightly less than that of companies in the industrial chain. The development of the construction industry is subject to the scale of government investment. At present, their future growth rate will further slow down;</p><p>2. As far as the second quarterly report is concerned, cyclical industries, especially companies in the upstream of the cycle, are more likely to exceed expectations. Petroleum, coal, non-ferrous metals and other sectors will perform better with the high (or even further upward) commodity prices. Here, the midstream sectors such as automobiles, machinery, electronics and home appliances may rise first and then fall. The reason is that the upward trend of commodity prices in the late stage of economic expansion leads to the narrowing of their profits, and the transmission of prices to the downstream is not as easy as that in the early and mid-stage of economic expansion;</p><p>3. In this round of economic cycle, due to the comprehensive impact of epidemic situation and economic transformation (double circulation), consumer stocks represented by Hang Seng Technology, biotechnology and brand clothing, especially those companies that exist uniquely in Hong Kong stocks, will show good investment value in the past and future. At present, Hang Seng Technology needs to rebound. We believe that the pressure of antitrust has been fully digested in the stock price in the first half of the year. The current valuation of biotechnology/medical devices/textiles and clothing is not low, but there are short-term catalytic factors, policy or performance. We think their trend is similar to the middle reaches, and Q3 will still perform well, while Q4 will become less attractive because of its high valuation.</p><p>To sum up, we believe that big finance, upstream cycle and Hang Seng Technology are the three major directions we are optimistic about in the second half of the year. In addition, new energy, semiconductors, biopharmaceuticals, textiles and apparel will also be trend opportunities before and after the semi-annual report. Due to the repeated epidemic, the recovery of the gaming sector will take time, and it is expected that there will be obvious opportunities in Q4.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99730b5306b832b0265537f4b7424a7d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>V. Risk warning</b></p><p>The risk of a lower-than-expected macroeconomic recovery, the risk of repeated pandemics, the uncertainty of Sino-US trade relations, and the risk of technology wars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b6b690532d93e57e2dac2a054def226\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>This article is selected from \"Xueheng's Overseas Observations\", author: Wang Xueheng; Zhitong Finance Editor: Zhuang Lijia.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FsSR-qGJ0tGYdcy0OSIdFw\">学恒的海外观察</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"513600":"恒生指数ETF南方","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSCEI":"国企指数","HSCCI":"红筹指数","02833":"恒指ETF","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FsSR-qGJ0tGYdcy0OSIdFw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154941861","content_text":"从成长性看，科创与周期占优;从中报业绩看，周期更佳;从估值看，大金融更有新引力。\n\n摘要\n全球：讨论TAPER尚早，美股依然在慢牛中\n尽管Taper的声音不绝于耳，但靴子落地并非易事：一方面，美国短期的GDP，CPI，消费，房价等数据在不断的上行，另一方面，实际时薪的下降，就业岗位恢复较慢，居民财富中股票占比过高，拜登政府加税可能带来对企业投资与招聘的负面影响，都需要被美联储充分考虑。因此，我们不认为Taper是一蹴而就的，初步判断在2021年Q4/2022年Q1才会有更加明晰的信号;美债收益率在年初的上行过快，充分消化了通胀的影响，尽管我们判断收益率依然震荡上行，但我们认为1.9-2.0%才是美股转向的阈值。以2022年的盈利作为依据，在4500点以下(本轮美股牛市我们的目标位)，标普依然运行在过去十年的估值框架里而并未大幅高估。\n国内：围绕二季报展开的行情已经开始\n企业中长期贷款的向上，佐证经济周期尚在扩张中，我们初步判断产量(工业增加值同比)、M1同比，都将在6、7月份开始反弹。\n从6月开始，CPI与PPI将收敛，意味着制造业的盈利将有所改善。伴随着CPI的逐渐上行，市场的信心也将不断被提升。\n以过去十年为参照，当下A股的估值并不高，大多宽基指数的估值(2022年)仅为平均值水平。因此，我们认为在经济周期扩张的时期，大盘有望突破本轮新高，下半年目标位4200-4300点。\n从成长性看，科创与周期占优;从中报业绩看，周期更佳;从估值看，大金融更有新引力。\n港股投资建议：蓄势已久，挑战新高\n我们调整恒生指数2021年31000-32000点的目标区间，意味着恒指有机会挑战本轮新高;\n我们认为下半年大盘上行的同时，也会伴随轮动的局面。半年报较优或者其他基本面驱动的板块主要为纺织服装、医药、金属、能源，其次，恒生科技、大金融中报预计符合预期而股价超跌，也将会有明显的估值修复。\n二季报之后或者Q4，部分板块的估值过高，加之距离年底taper以及资金面的不确定性，使得风险偏好无法持续提升，此时当关注价格可能持续上行的资源股、低估值的银行股、复苏预期滞后博彩股，以及经济周期影响较小的电信运营商和香港本地股。\n风险提示\n宏观经济复苏低于预期的风险，疫情反复的风险，中美贸易关系的不确定性，科技战的风险。\n正文\n一、全球：讨论TAPER尚早，美股依然在慢牛中\n1、到年底部分国家接种率将超过七成\n全球新增疫情最近稳定在每天30-40万例，较年初有明显下降，其中主要发达国家新增病例较年初下降明显。\n\n进入到5、6月份，根据our world in data的数据，部分国家的接种率(一剂)明显加速提升，按照当下的速度，在入冬之前，大部分有条件的国家，接种率能超过70%，即世卫组织认可的全民免疫效果的接种率水平。中国接种疫苗的速度更加惊人，目前已经超过了10亿剂次，每天以2000万的接种，预计也将在年底之前达到70%以上的接种率。\n\n2、世界银行上修全球GDP增速至5.6%\n1）2021年全球经济的上修\n世界银行1月份时预计全球GDP增速只有4.1%。6月，世界银行将全球GDP增速上修至5.6%，这是80 年来从衰退中取得的最强复苏，主要是受到美国和中国经济分别增长 6.8% 和 8.5% 的推动。IMF则更加乐观一些，认为全球GDP增速将达到6%(其年初的预期是5.15%)。\n\n两者对中国经济的增速的预期相当，世界银行预期中国2021年GDP增速为8.5%，IMF预期为8.4%;世界银行预期美国2021年GDP增速为6.8%，IMF预期为6.4%。\n2）中美的GDP差距缩小\n疫情期间，中国的GDP继续增长，美国GDP下滑，这缩小了中美GDP的差距，以(美国-中国)/美国表示差距的话，2020年，中美GDP差距为30%，IMF估计，不考虑人民币兑美元汇率的影响，到2026年，中美GDP差距将缩减至16%，该数字在2010年为60%，在2016年时缩小到了40%。\n\n在两国GDP缩小差距的背景下，自拜登就任美国总统之后，美国政府对中国频频释放各类压力。6月8日，美国国会参议院通过《2021年美国创新与竞争法》，美国有线电视新闻网称该法案意在向美国技术、科学、研究领域投资逾2000亿美元，用来对抗中国日益增长的影响力。\n另一方面，中国美国商会6月发布的《2021年度美国企业在中国白皮书》显示，中国市场对美国企业仍具有强大吸引力。超过一半(52%)的在华美国企业提到，中国第一大商机是“国内消费的增长和日益庞大的富裕中产阶层的崛起”，超过三分之二的美国企业将中国视为优先市场，85%的美国企业并未打算将制造或采购工序迁往中国以外的地方。白皮书还显示，近61%的美国企业相信中国将继续向外资开放市场。美国企业在中国的获得感进一步增强，如在金融领域，美国公司已经获得了在中国开展全方位业务的许可;在食品和农业领域，中国修改了法规，允许更多的美国产品进入中国等。\n3、美国经济周期尚在扩张阶段\n1）美国经济框架的启示：通胀与滞胀中的平衡\n在美国的经济框架中，利率政策或者个人收入传导给消费支出，这需要2、3个季度，然后消费的上升将带来工业生产、服务的景气度提升，以及企业盈利的提升，此间又需要1、2个季度。\n\n然后企业预期未来景气度的向上，开始增加资本开支，同时积极招工(这又是在2-4个季度之后了)，进而推动通货膨胀的上行。此时，美联储出手对通胀进行干预，以保证经济的健康发展。\n在这套系统中，如果干预的过晚，可能会使得通货膨胀滋长;但如果干预过早，就会将刚刚复苏的经济浇灭在摇篮中。如何来判断这个节奏，向来是个“天大的问题”，左边是通胀，右边是通缩，政府与中央银行必须在平衡木上小心翼翼的前行。\n2）当下美国经济数据中的一些矛盾之处\n一方面，美国消费、产量景气度无疑是上行的：个人消费支出上行(也归因去年低基数)，同时消费者信心指数恢复到疫情以来的最好水平。\n\n制造业PMI震荡上行，5月份服务业的PMI已经超过了疫情前的最高水平。\n\n成屋销售同比十年新高，房价加速上行，美国诸多媒体报道随处可见的“一房难求”、“买房加价”的现象。\n\n此外，市场对于美国宏观经济数据的预期，几个月以来也在不断上修。\n\n但是另一方面，在光鲜的数据背后，也有着不少隐忧：\n其一是实际时薪的下降。由于实际时薪决定了消费者的真实购买力，而本次经济复苏中，由于供给侧产能无法及时跟上、以及美元超发导致的商品价格的上行，推动了CPI率先走强，这使得名义时薪的上行而实际时薪的下降。历史上，实际时薪作为美国居民消费比较可靠的前导指标(当然，这主要在就业状况相对稳定的前提下)，当下给出的趋势并不明朗。\n\n其二是就业恢复仍需观察。根据美国劳工部的数据，新冠疫情让美国2200万人失去了工作。到目前为止，只恢复到了疫情前的67%的水平，还有800万就业差距。尚就在4月，美国新增非农就业大幅低于市场预期，5月仅仅符合本不高的预期。部分分析认为，因为撒钱式的补贴导致了低收入群体上班与不上班收入相当，这使得部分企业找不到员工，最终再次关门倒闭。据美国CNBC报导，在过去的一个月里，已经有25个州宣布将在其于9月6日正式到期之前，终止疫情期间的额外福利计划。一些州最早将于6月12日就停止联邦额外失业金的发放。这些州都是由共和党州长领导的。他们表示，额外增加的失业救济金，正在导致失业工人更愿意待在家里，而不是去找工作，这种补助使得企业很难招到工人，以填补急需的空缺职位。美国商会首席政策官布拉德利认为：“令人失望的就业报告清楚地表明，向不工作的人支付工资，正在抑制本应更加强劲的就业市场。”停止联邦额外失业金对后续用工的影响总体是积极的，但效果尚需跟踪。\n\n其三是关于拜登政府加税的预期。虽然我们预计此计划实施起来相当困难，而且为了确保中期选举，民主党不大可能在2022年中期选举之前在此问题上有过多的建树。然而，加税的预期在一定程度上将影响企业的人力资源规划。美国商会会长Clark表示，在提高商业税的必要性问题上与政府存在分歧：“拟议的增税计划将极大地损害美国企业和美国劳动者的利益。现在肯定不是为经济复苏设置新障碍的时候。政府倡导基础设施是正确的，我们希望与政府一起做这件事，但还有其他方法来资助基建计划。”美国商会表示支持基建设投资，但倾向于主要通过基础设施使用费来提供资金。美国零售联合会发言人McGinty表示，该组织在提交给美国参议院财政委员会的一封报告中反对为通过增加企业税为基建计划筹集资金。此外，美国零售业领导者协会发言人McGinty也表态，该协会反对给企业增税的立场没有改变。\n其四是关于美国股市在居民资产中的占比过高，股市的下跌将严重打击居民的消费热情。美国居民的财富和股票资产相关的有两类，一类是直接投资，另一类是通过养老计划(最终进入股市、债市)，两者在居民财富占比达到了惊人的57%(处在历史最高水平)，相比中国居民财富最大类的为房地产，在美国居民资产中的占比仅为24%。历史上，消费与股市互为因果：股票市场下跌→居民财富缩水→消费更加保守→企业盈利下降→股票市场下跌。当下，美股的总市值大约为45万亿美元，约为美国预期2021年GDP(22.2万亿美元)的202%。按照拉斯特维德在《逃不开的经济周期》中的估计，股市下跌将对GDP产生约4%的冲击系数。即，倘若美股下跌20%(这仅是一个基钦周期级别的调整)，单股市下跌对GDP的负向作用可达202%*20%*4%=-1.6%，以上，尚不考虑企业的资本开支萎缩，存货减值，房地产下跌等延伸性影响。一般来说，在一个有幅度的股票市场下跌行情中(如下跌1/3至一半)，且房地产市场也受到影响时(比如下跌1/5至1/3)，对当年GDP的综合影响约为-15%左右。\n\n美联储主席鲍威尔在4月的FOMC记者会上表示，美联储“将确保货币政策继续为经济提供强有力的支持，直到完成复苏”。目前，投资者预期美联储将在8月的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上宣布缩减QE。路透最新调查也显示，美联储可能在8月或9月宣布削减其大规模购债计划的策略，但预计要到明年初才会开始削减每月购买规模。\n而我们依然重复这一观点：就当下的美国经济，一旦TAPER实施，温和复苏的局面将可能终结。所以，持续审慎关注通胀(Q2/Q3)，就业数据(6、7、8月)，尤其是7、8月在部分州政府取消救助后对就业的影响，对于美联储是必要的。\n3）美债的走平说明市场对通胀的预期已经消化\n尽管5月份美国的CPI、核心CPI都创了新高，但是通胀预期(10年期美债收益率-10年TIPS收益率)下跌，美国10年期国债收益率振荡走平，这都说明对于通胀的预期已被市场所消化，下一步需要继续跟踪三季度的通胀水平。\n\n我们曾定量测算了本轮美债收益率的上行对于股票市场产生影响的关键位置。方法是观察在历史上的升息周期中加息次数、幅度(本轮联邦基金目标利率不动，这和历史略有区别，但市场利率上行是相同的)对于股票市场见顶的影响。我们测算了该结果：10年期美债收益率上行至1.9-2.0%水平时，美国牛市告一段落。\n4、大宗商品的上行仍将持续\n我们欣慰的回顾，在本轮大宗商品启动前的2019年发布的年度策略报告中，我们提及：“全球中周期——房地产周期、大宗商品周期均处在扩张阶段，短周期——基钦周期也已触及低点，转向扩张。中周期与短周期的合力共振向上，将推动周期资产价格的上涨”。到目前为止，我们对全球经济处在扩张阶段的判断依然没有改变。\n\n由于商品周期平均扩张时间为24-26个月，本轮大宗商品的上行将会在2022年二季度终结。此外，我们对比了商品指数与标普500的关系，与A股类似，标普500领先于CRB指数约0-3个月(就像上证指数领先PPI一样)，因此，我们初步匡算，美股将上涨到2022年一季度左右。\n美股依然运行在过去十年的估值框架中\n\n随着经济预期的向上修正，标普500的净利润也被上修。目前市场预期2021-2022年标普500EPS增速分别为40%，9%;ROE分别为19.7%，19.4%;EPS分别为194，211(而在我们去年年底撰写策略报告时期，EPS仅为170，197，上调幅度分别为14%，7%)。\n我们曾经介绍过，当下美国维持比疫情前更低的美债收益率，按照2008-2019年标普500的PE上限，21.4-21.5倍PE(剔除08年金融危机与20年疫情的极端影响)，给予标普500目标价，则可得：\nSPX目标价2021=194*21.4=4151点;\n如果考虑到估值切换到2022年，则可以得到：\nSPX目标价2022=211*21.4=4515点;\n因此，我们认为，今明两年，在标普500震荡上行达到4500点之前，美股则依然运行在最近十年的估值通道中而并未大幅高估。当然，谈论高估必然要讨论美债收益率、TAPER与QE，以及经济周期的位置，这些问题我们已经在前文解释过。\n\n二、A股：围绕二季报展开的行情已经开始\n1、企业中长期贷款的向上，佐证经济尚在扩张中\n5月份的M2同比已经不再下滑，开始出现了底部稳住的特征。中长期贷款依旧保持非常稳健的增长，预示着制造业信贷需求的旺盛。\n\n拆解社融科目，最近下降较为明显的是地方政府专项债券、企业债券、信托贷款。企业债券的下行背景是今年中央要求抓实化解地方政府隐性债务风险工作，多部门联合出手强化监管，遏制隐性债务增长;地方政府专项债券今年较去年略减少2800亿元，参考近期财政部下达2021年新增地方政府债务限额42676亿元(其中一般债务限额8000亿元，专项债务限额34676亿元)，低于此前经十三届人大四次会议批准的44700亿元预算(其中专项债务额度37500亿元);信托贷款的下滑是必然的，今年是资管新规过渡期的最后一年，信托业依旧在寻找转型与创新中。如此来看，今年的社融的特征是：政府与地方融资平台的融资需求放缓，房地产/信托的融资也被抑制住，而制造业的贷款需求旺盛。\n\n我们预估M1同比、工业增加值同比或者已经触及或者接近全年的低点并伴随经济周期的向上而抬升。\n\nM2中不统计财政存款(去年5月恰值财政存款高峰期)，因此社融较M2下滑更多我们认为是暂时性的。\n\n此外，国内资金面相对宽松，MLF从去年疫情至今尚未上行，理财收益率继续下行，信用利差下行(AA+，AAA较AA更加明显)。\n\n2、从6月开始，CPI与PPI差距将收敛\n今年上半年，PPI上行压力较大，在前几个月的跟踪过程中我们也感受到PPI的上行屡屡超过市场预期。去年5月为PPI全年的低点，因此从形态上，自6月份开始，PPI开启下行无疑。\n\n今年以来，CPI今年受制于猪价的下行有一定的拖累，但分科目观察，交通和通信、教育文化和娱乐、居住，以及食品烟酒环比都开始有了比较明显的改善。我们估计，CPI下半年还将保持韧性，稳步向上。\n\n但另一方面，PPI的下行代表了通胀压力的减缓，有利于制造业的盈利修复。但这并非意味着通胀压力的消失。因为在一个商品周期中，随着需求的好转，供给侧的产能尚无法在短周期内明显扩大，况且当下的周期品库存总体不高，随着库存的去化，商品价格还有进一步上行的空间。\n3、A股估值并不高，锁定中报预期上修的板块\n1）综合来看，当下A股估值并不高\n我们以过去十年的估值水平作为一个参考，观察一下当下A股的估值水平。\n万得全A当下估值20.3倍，若考虑估值切换，则2022年PE水平伴随业绩的增长回落至平均值。沪深300目前估值为14.5倍，若考虑估值切换，则2022年PE水平伴随业绩的增长也将回落至平均水平。\n\n上证指数当下的估值为14.2倍，处在平均值水平，若考虑估值切换，则2022年对应PE低于平均值;创业板当下估值水平略高59.0倍，但也处于+1个标准差以下，由于创业板增速更高，因此在考虑到估值切换的情境下，其2022年对应PE则低于平均值。\n\n中证500目前估值在所有主要的宽基指数中处于较低水平，估值仅为平均值-1标准差，若考虑到2022年的增速，则低于-1标准差;上证50估值水平处于相对较高水平，考虑到2022年的增长，则估值水平略高于历史平均值。\n\n综上，以十年周期来看A股，当下的估值水平并不高，下半年一旦考虑到估值切换，当下估值也仅为历史平均水平。如果测算A股的上行空间，我们以习惯的上证指数在年初16-16.2倍PE的年内最高水平测算，考虑到包含2022年估值切换的因素，测算上行目标区间约为4200-4300点。以上考虑是建立在经济周期扩张尚未结束，上行的主要动力是来自业绩提升而非估值扩张的情景。从宽基指数看，中证500较沪深300、上证50等估值更具吸引力。\n2）从成长性来看，科创与周期今年的业绩增速更明显\n从业绩增速观察，今年科创增速在宽基指数中居前，21年对比20年增长率高达70%，其次是小市值公司，国证2000，中证1000，中证500，创业板50，结合当下的估值水平和反弹情况，科创板、中证500性价比较高。在风格中，今年依旧不容忽视的是周期性行业的盈利增速，同比82%的增长，好过成长(74%)。\n\n从行业角度，今年增速较快的行业除了去年低基数的交运、传媒、消费者服务、零售外，有色、黑色居前，此外计算机、基础化工、电子、汽车也排名居前。\n\n3）从预期调整角度来看，周期性行业更占优势\n年报之后(4月30日)，科创50、中证500在所有宽基指数中预期上修幅度最大，上证指数也上修1%，排名第三。创业板、中证1000、国证2000则排名分别为后三位。风格中比较，周期性行业业绩上行幅度最大，成长则下修幅度最大。这和我们在前表中的观察略有矛盾，即成长股虽然增速最快，但从年报之后，业绩下修，说明目前成长股中的上行也是分化的而不是普遍的，而周期性行业的下跌是暂时的，二季报将至，我们认为周期性行业的机会将更加确定。\n\n对比年报后，业绩调整排名分行业比较如下：钢铁、消费者服务、汽车、交运石油石化居前，机械、有色金属、煤炭、轻工制造也有一定幅度的上调，而排名居后的分别是商贸零售、传媒、综合、农林牧渔、通信、计算机。\n在这样的排序中，我们认为依然需要讨论商品的价格，例如，如果基本金属、煤炭、原油的价格上行，将对中游的钢铁、汽车、机械、轻工、化工、家电等原材料敏感性的行业带来盈利压力，如果周期上游的价格稳定或者下行，则如上行业的盈利增速可能反倒继续上修。\n\n我们的态度是：本轮经济周期扩张尚未结束，而商品价格上行的诱因：连续7-10年的产能扩张相对有限的核心变量并没有改变，假定下游产量继续上行，则上游原材料上行的压力始终存在。因此，在板块的盈利预测方面，我们倾向于认为偏周期上游的有色金属、石油石化、煤炭的中报业绩确定性更强。\n4）从估值角度来看，不应忽略大金融的估值修复潜力\n按照对经济周期的理解，当CPI向上，市场收益率上行，预期金融行业受到息差加大的影响而盈利改善。因此，低估值的大金融有望在下半年修复。我们将一级行业放在PE/PB分位矩阵中观察，目前银行股的PB估值在历史最低水平，而且我们预计今年Q2银行业的ROE将有相对明显的同比抬升(对比去年Q2开始的预计提)。保险行业今年保费收入较差，但由于两年以来该板块没有表现，基本面不佳已经充分消化在股价上，下半年也有估值修复的空间。券商从去年7月份经历了一年的弱势震荡，当下估值也很低(连同保险处在历史分位10%以下)。考虑到国内注册制大潮的推进，以及券商资产质量优于保险、银行，我们认为下半年该板块也将有不错的表现。\n\n综合成长性，预期调整，估值三个方面，我们看好科创板、周期上游、大金融作为下半年的首选推荐。同时，我们按照前文的测算，上证将在年内有望上行至4200-4300点的高度。\n三、港股：蓄势已久，挑战新高\n1、2021年下半年恒指有望突破本轮新高\n市场预期，恒生指数(HSI)在2021年EPS增速为11%，2022年增速为-2%，这个表现不如A股，但是其收入端并不差，同比为19%与12%的增速。一些大型的互联网公司今年的目标依然是追求收入的增速而非利润端，这是一部分原因，另外恒生指数中地产、金融部分占比较高，也一定程度上拖累了利润的增长。\n\n下图是恒生指数(HSI)在历史上估值的PB波动区间。我们以此来测算恒指的下半年目标位。\n\n在此前的报告中，我们曾解释过，由于从历史波动率观察，净资产的稳定性更好(较EPS和股息)，因此，我们在预测恒指的低点或者高点通常考虑PB估值或者股息率。我们沿用每轮基钦周期扩张时PB的提升幅度，取中位数来匡算2021年下半年恒生指数的PB上限。\n\n从2002年以来，恒指在每轮基钦周期中的PB扩张幅度分别为49%、85%、74%、29%、63%，中位数为63%，平均数为60%。我们得到下半年恒生指数的PB上限是1.39倍。\nPB2021上限=0.87*(1+60%)=1.39\n根据分析师对2021-2022年净资产的预期为21,784点、23,387点，则恒指的目标位为：\n中性：21784(BPS2021)*1.39=30,374点;\n乐观(考虑到估值切换到2022年)：23,387(BPS2022)*1.39=32,610点。\n因此，我们判断下半年恒指的目标价将运行到31,000-32,000点附近，即有创本轮新高的潜力。\n2、上半年走势回顾\n我们在年初《2020年港股小结》中总结了五大方向：“展望2021年，寻找超额收益的方向可能是：1、新经济依然是主战场，尤其是反垄断政策与美国政策干扰下的投资标的将会“恐慌-错杀-再新高”的机会;2、次新股将带来更多的投资线索;3、风险偏好的上行将有助于大小市值的估值收敛;4、顺周期板块伴随疫情的恢复，将缩小板块间的表现差异;5、美国禁投令的靴子落地，将带来名单公司的估值修复机会。”\n复盘今年上半年，港股经历了三个阶段：上涨、下跌、反弹。\n第一阶段是春节之前，科技股、生物科技股一马当先，最高时期，恒生科技指数达到了29%的上涨幅度;\n第二个阶段是春节后至5月初，在美债收益率快速上行，以及互联网反垄断的影响下，恒生科技指数大幅回撤，收益率从29%跌至-11%，恒指跌破28000点;\n第三阶段是5月下旬到6月，随着美债收益率的稳定，以及市场不断的吸收了反垄断的诸多影响，各大指数开始反弹。表现最好的是生物科技板块(25%)，其次是香港本地股(9%)，再其次是港股通(7%)，国企指数和恒生科技跑输恒生指数。\n1）从内地投资者的角度，港股作为A股市场的补充，恒生科技与恒生生物科技是投资者最关注的两大赛道。去年恒生科技涨幅较大，加之反垄断的影响，带来了部分投资者止盈，而恒生生物科技则接过了接力棒，表现抢眼。我们相信，长期来看，新经济依然是主战场，恒生科技、生物科技都会有不错的表现。5月，易方达恒生科技ETF、华夏恒生科技ETF、大成恒生科技ETF、华安恒生科技ETF、华泰柏瑞南方东英恒生科技ETF、博时恒生科技ETF、嘉实恒生科技ETF都已经发布，内地投资者可以透过这些ETF购买恒生科技指数，这样解决了港股没有覆盖的类似阿里巴巴、百度、京东、B站等一大批股票的投资限制问题。\n\n2）从风格上来看，可以看出，从年初以来，如果跑赢恒生指数，在风格上，要求仓位集中在恒生小型股、中小型股、中型股，而非大型股与中大型股。目前，恒生大型股与恒生小型股的估值依然在收敛中，我们按照历史规律统计过，当两者的PB差值转正，才是估值修正的终点(也往往是牛市的终点)，这也说明了目前的市场，机会远大于风险。\n\n3）从行业来看，除了医疗板块，今年周期上游大放异彩。其中能源业的表现排名第一，原材料业排名第三，综合业、恒生工业也有不错的表现。排名靠后的行业的必需性消费、资讯科技、金融。我们依然非常看好资源品，由于大宗品的价格较去年上行幅度很大，例如原油价格上行到了疫情以来的新高，CRB指数同比上行50%，铜价同比上行93%，铝价同比上行65%，因此大概率上这些板块二季报有不错的季报表现。\n\n4）从港股通524家公司的行业表现统计，煤炭涨幅惊人，其次是钢铁、基础化工、医药、纺织服装、传媒、有色金属、石油石化，排名居后的板块主要是电力设备、建材、餐饮旅游、国防军工、非银行金融、家电、汽车、综合、食品饮料等几个行业。\n\n5）从禁投名单的角度看，上半年收益可喜。我们在年初判断，禁投令公司今年会有不错的表现。截至2021年6月，禁投名单公司涨幅平均数为35%，中位数19%，大幅跑赢恒指。尽管如此，我们认为其中的诸多公司如电信运营商、石油公司，估值依然较低，还有相当程度的上行空间。\n\n3、市场预期变化：周期占优，餐饮/计算机下调\n利润预期：对比年报前后，钢铁、军工、石油石化、银行、家电、电子元器件、建筑、非银金融等几个行业的2021年净利润预期上修，而餐饮旅游、计算机、农林牧渔、有色金属、电力设备、机械、建材、食品饮料、商贸零售、通信、传媒几个板块的业绩下修。\n\n收入预期：对比年报前后，国防军工、钢铁、建材、家电、煤炭、汽车、电力设备、农林牧渔、电子元器件、交运等几个行业的2021年收入预期上修;而餐饮旅游、计算机、传媒等行业的收入预期下修。\n\n4、估值比较：纺织服装创新高，地产产业链新低\n以最近5年的数据比较，当下港股通的估值分位为24%(中位值)，其中，纺织服装、钢铁、基础化工、石油石化几个板块较高，而房地产、建筑、建材、轻工制造、非银金融、传媒、餐饮旅游、家电、交运等行业大幅低于平均水平。\n\n近月资金流入/流出：部分中游还在流入，说明市场还在牛市中\n从近期的资金流入情况来看，中游的诸多板块有进一步的加仓，而大金融、周期上游暂时偏弱。实际上这样的结构更加说明经济复苏依然在路上而非尾声。在牛市的尾声，呈现的局面应该相反：即中游流出，而大金融、周期上游资金加速流入。\n\n四、投资建议\n1、整体而言，在CPI上行时，低估值会有一定幅度的估值修复。如大金融、房地产、公用事业、电信运营商，这些行业相比较而言，我们认为大金融更优。理由是a)银行、券商在2020年都进行了较大幅度的计提，今年业绩同比改善更加明显;b)它们估值较低;c)息差扩大对它们的盈利预期有推动作用;房地产业今年拿地的成本较高，表现为较高程度的土地溢价，而承受的建安成本在大宗商品处在高位处也较高，因此我们认为地产公司目前尽管估值较低，但其吸引力略小于产业链上的公司。建筑业的发展受制于政府投资规模，目前来看，它们未来的增长速度将进一步放缓;\n2、就二季报来看，周期性行业，尤其是周期上游的公司更容易超预期。石油石化、煤炭、有色金属等板块，伴随着商品价格的高位(甚至进一步上行)，业绩会更佳。此间，汽车、机械、电子、家电等中游板块，或呈现先上涨后下跌的局面，理由是经济扩张后期商品价格上行导致其利润收窄，而价格的向下游传导也不如经济扩张早中期容易;\n3、本轮经济周期，由于疫情、经济转型(双循环)等综合影响，以恒生科技、生物科技、品牌服饰为代表的消费股，尤其是那些在港股中独特存在的公司，过去以及未来都会呈现良好的投资价值。当下，恒生科技有反弹需要，我们认为反垄断的压力已经充分消化在上半年的股价中，生物科技/医疗器械/纺织服装目前估值不低，但都有短期的催化因素，政策上的或业绩上的，我们认为它们的走势类似中游，Q3依然会有不错的表现，而Q4则会因为估值高而变得吸引力下降。\n综上，我们认为大金融、周期上游、恒生科技是我们下半年看好的三大方向。此外，新能源、半导体、生物制药、纺织服装也将半年报前后的趋势性机会。受制于疫情的反复，博彩板块的复苏尚需时日，预计Q4才有较为明显的机会。\n\n五、风险提示\n宏观经济复苏低于预期的风险，疫情反复的风险，中美贸易关系的不确定性，科技战的风险。\n\n本文选编自“学恒的海外观察”，作者：王学恒；智通财经编辑：庄礼佳。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513600":0.9,"HHImain":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9,"HSImain":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,"MCHmain":0.9,"MHImain":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"02833":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1862,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
