$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$prepare for another round of downward surprises. The company has an unprofitable model where if it raises fares too much, ppl will just switch to taxis. It's food delivery space has too many competitors as well. Target price is $1.10
I will keep most of my purchase as they are china ADRs, china ADRs have been sold down to low values where they are half the value of their US and Europe peers. The sell down has happened over the past year. You would have sold in may 2021 & go away.But this is May 2022, you should be holding to purchases. Maybe will consider selling in may 2023
Unprofitable company losing about 700 mil per year. while company forcast profitability next year, it is non gaap which excludes the dilutive effects of share based compensation which kills existing shareholders. It will not be profitable until 2026 based on trajectoryBy then, about 1 billion share based compensation would have been issued which means dilution of about 10% of shares base. Furthermore we will not know how much profits it earns in 2026 (likely 200 mil based on growth rate). A sell and I expect shares to be worth in the $20s range
has trouble even becoming operationally profitable. It seems this year they may only be earning $200 million at most. Its at best now a $30 billion company; estimate a 47% decline from current share price
$Twilio(TWLO)$Unprofitable company losing about 700 mil per year. while company forcast profitability next year, it is non gaap which excludes the dilutive effects of share based compensation which kills existing shareholders. It will not be profitable until 2026 based on trajectoryBy then, about 1 billion share based compensation would have been issued which means dilution of about 10% of shares base. Furthermore we will not know how much profits it earns in 2026 (likely 200 mil based on growth rate). A sell and I expect shares to be worth in the $20s rangenge
$Sea Ltd(SE)$The latest results shows that the growth story has disintegrated. Profits earned from Garena is declining and losses from Shopee is growing. GMV has slowed and seamoney is not growing fastSea Money is unlikely to be the Winner in South East Asia SpaceNo doubt, South East Asia has a large population of unbanked individuals where Sea could tap on. However, it has two major competitors in Grab and Go-to.
$Tencent Music(TME)$The only profitable music streaming company in the world. However on a price to sales ratio, it is the lowest among all. My estimate based on average of ratios of all music streaming company is that TME is worth $10.80. which means a 100+% upside
$Shopify(SHOP)$Has trouble even becoming operationally profitable. It seems this year they may only be earning $200 million at most. Its at best now a $30 billion company; estimate a 40% decline from current share price
$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$Heading lower. In the next 2-3 quarters, investors will see massive share dilution as grab has started giving out share based compensation to employees. My previous target price was $2.50 without dilution, assuming 15% dilution, expect $2.10 to be where it will go
$Shopify(SHOP)$HHas trouble even becoming operationally profitable. It seems this year they may only be earning $200 million at most. Its at best now a $30 billion company; estimate a 30% decline from current share price