hhyw personal page - To The Moon

hhyw

hhyw

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2023-06-27

🙂🙂🙂🙂🙂🙂🙂

2022-04-16

$瑞银(UBS)$up up up

2021-05-23

RIP

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2021-05-09

Pls like & response. Thanks

Be wary of the "nonlinear" recovery of U.S. employment, market volatility may intensify in May-June

2021-04-30

5151

Reminder: A-shares are closed for three days on May Day, and Hong Kong and US stocks trade as usual

2022-09-09

K

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-06-23

Ok

Shushulang Education Holdings Limited passed listing hearing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange

2022-04-15

$瑞银(UBS)$upup

2022-03-30

$瑞银(UBS)$up up up

2022-03-04

12000🙄🙄

Copper inventories are extremely low, Goldman Sachs said copper prices are expected to break through $12,000!

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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Event: The United States created 266,000 new non-farm jobs in April, the unemployment rate was 6.1%, and the labor force participation rate was 61.7%.</p><p><b>The non-agricultural data in January and April fell short of expectations. Which industries are lagging behind?</b>The U.S. non-agricultural data in April was far lower than the previous value and expectations, and the employment gap exceeded 8.2 million. In April, 266,000 new non-farm jobs were created, compared with market expectations of close to 1 million. The initial value in March was 916,000, and the revised value was 770,000. Manufacturing, warehousing and transportation industries and \"part-time jobs\" dragged their feet, while leisure and hospitality industries performed well. The commodity production sector decreased by 16,000 people, mainly dragged down by the manufacturing industry; Employment in the transportation and warehousing industry decreased by 74,000, which may be related to the interruption of the international supply chain; Professional and business services (\"temporary support services\") dropped sharply by 111,400 people, but this may be a positive signal that \"part-time\" workers are beginning to move to \"full-time\" workers. The leisure and hotel industry increased significantly by 331,000 people, compared with the previous value of 206,000 people, reflecting that states in the United States have begun to relax restrictions on the movement of people.</p><p><b>The initial non-agricultural value in February and April may not be the whole picture of the employment situation in the United States.</b>First, the marginal improvement of labor participation enthusiasm in April is also the reason for the rise in unemployment rate. The unemployment rate (U3) in April was 6.1%, higher than the previous value of 6.0%. However, the labor participation rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 61.7% in April, corresponding to a new labor force of 430,000. Some new people entering the labor market may not have found jobs yet, which will increase the \"numerator and denominator\" at the same time and temporarily rise the unemployment rate. Second, the number of \"small non-farm payrolls\" and initial jobless claims is more optimistic. ADP created 742,000 new jobs in the private sector in April, higher than the previous value of 565,000. The latest number of initial jobless claims fell to 498,000, the lowest since the pandemic. Third, the accuracy of the initial value of non-agricultural data is limited. The non-farm payrolls report will be revised on a monthly basis. For April data, disturbances such as supply chain disruption may be temporary, and the decrease in the number of \"part-time jobs\" and the increase in employment in hotel tourism are also positive signals. The actual employment situation in the United States in April may not be so pessimistic, and it is not appropriate to use this as a trend for \"linear extrapolation\".</p><p><b>In March and April, the average hourly wage still increased rapidly from the previous month, and the \"reaction\" of fiscal stimulus deserves attention.</b>In April, the year-on-year growth rate of the average hourly wage of non-agricultural non-managerial personnel dropped sharply to 1.15%, largely due to the base effect. In April 2020, the average hourly wage of non-agricultural non-managerial personnel rose from US $24.15 to US $25.16. If you look at the month-on-month, the average hourly wage in April increased by 0.8% month-on-month, the highest increase this year. The U.S. Treasury Department's spending has accelerated since March, with the TGA (Treasury General Account) shrinking by about $300 billion in March. Government expenditure may have a \"counter-effect\" on the job market. Since April 2020, government welfare has driven high income growth of residents, but at the same time, employment willingness may be suppressed, resulting in slow recovery of the job market and insufficient labor participation rate. Then enterprises have to raise wages to make up for the labor gap.</p><p><b>The non-agricultural data in April and April was weak, but the market reacted positively.</b>The market is happy to see the weak employment data, and believes that the Federal Reserve is more likely to remain loose in the short term, and then the risk appetite will increase marginally, and the expectation of dollar depreciation and inflation expectation will further strengthen. After the release of non-agricultural data on May 7, the S&P 500 index reached a new high; The bond market responded positively, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield plunged intraday; Gold futures prices were significantly boosted; The US Dollar Index Diving.</p><p><b>5. Be wary of the \"nonlinear\" recovery of employment in the United States and related risks. Market volatility may intensify in May-June.</b>Considering the improvement of the epidemic situation in the United States and the continued advancement of vaccination, it is somewhat unexpected that the employment data in April was weaker than that in March, which means that the recovery of the U.S. job market is likely to be \"non-linear.\" There are three main risks of \"nonlinear\" recovery: First, the market is accustomed to linear extrapolation thinking, which is easy to cause misjudgment. The market believes that if the employment data is weak, the probability of the Fed tightening policy will decrease, and then actively embrace risks. One possible scenario is that the employment data in May may be significantly higher than expected, when the market's nervousness about the shift in monetary policy may reach its highest point, triggering market volatility. Second, \"cluster recovery\" may push up inflation faster. When the \"herd immunity\" in the United States approaches (we expect it to be around July), employment may \"get together\" to recover, and then economic activities such as production and consumption may rebound rapidly, and inflation indicators may rise rapidly. Third, the deviation between employment and inflation trends will increase the difficulty for the market to judge the Fed's policy, which will easily lead to market fluctuations. Our benchmark calculations show that the year-on-year growth rate of U.S. PCE from April to May this year may reach 3%. However, if employment recovery is still slow, the Fed will fall into the dilemma of \"slow employment\" and \"fast inflation\". At least it will be more difficult for the Fed to communicate with the market, and U.S. stocks and other risky assets are prone to fluctuations.</p><p>The non-agricultural data in April fell short of expectations. Which industries are lagging behind?</p><p>The U.S. non-agricultural data in April was far lower than the previous value and expectations, and the current employment gap exceeds 8.2 million. The United States added 266,000 new non-farm employment in April, compared with market expectations of close to 1 million. The initial value in March was 916,000, and the revised value was 770,000. The total number of non-farm employment in April was 1.4431 million, an increase of only about 3,000 from the previous value of 1.44 million. Currently, the total number of non-farm payrolls in the United States is 8.215 million lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic (February 2020) (Chart 1).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e31d9d1bc09767085bc713950ea8463a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Manufacturing, warehousing and transportation industries and \"part-time jobs\" dragged their feet, while leisure and hospitality industries performed well. Among the 266,000 new people in April, 234,000 came from the service industry, more than half less than that in March, 48,000 came from the government department, about a quarter less than that in March, and the commodity production sector decreased by 16,000, an increase of 166,000 in March. Employment in the commodity production sector in April was mainly dragged down by manufacturing (especially durable goods manufacturing) (Chart 2); Employment in the transportation and warehousing industry decreased by 74,000, which may be related to the interruption of the international supply chain. The Federal Reserve has also mentioned the \"bottleneck\" of the supply chain before; And the professional and business services industry dropped by 79,000, of which \"temporary support services\" dropped by 111,400, but this may be a positive signal that \"part-time\" workers are beginning to shift to \"full-time\" workers. The U.S. Department of Labor (BLS) reported a 580,000 decrease in \"part-time jobs for economic reasons\" due to an increase in full-time positions. The leisure and hotel industry increased significantly by 331,000 people, compared with the previous value of 206,000 people, reflecting that states in the United States have begun to relax restrictions on the movement of people (Chart 3).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7391ef70d5d9ffd318384b216952f3be\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2 The preliminary non-farm payrolls value in April may not be the full picture of the U.S. employment situation</p><p>The initial non-agricultural value in April may not be the full picture of the recovery pace of the U.S. job market. There are still a series of signals pointing to the marginal improvement of the U.S. job market.</p><p>First, the margin of labor participation in the United States improved in April, which is also the reason for the rise in unemployment rate. The U.S. unemployment rate (U3) in April was 6.1%, higher than the previous value of 6.0% and market expectations of 5.8% (Chart 4). However, the U.S. labor force participation rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 61.7% in April, corresponding to a new labor force of 430,000, although the current total labor force is still 3.46 million lower than before the epidemic (February 2020) (Chart 5). Some new people entering the labor market may not have found jobs yet, which will increase the \"numerator and denominator\" at the same time and temporarily rise the unemployment rate. In addition, the U6 unemployment rate (considering the broader unemployed population) fell by 0.3 percentage points to 10.4% in April.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9ad824a347d2937fd825a24c739c26f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Second, the number of \"small non-farm payrolls\" and initial jobless claims is more optimistic. The \"small non-agricultural\" (ADP private sector employment) data released the day before the non-agricultural data showed that 742,000 new jobs were created in the United States in April, higher than the previous value of 565,000 (Chart 6). In the week ending May 1, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States continued to fall to 498,000, the lowest since the epidemic, although the number was still 2.1 times the pre-epidemic level. In the week ending April 24, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States was 3.69 million, slightly higher than the previous value of 3.65 million and 2.4 times the pre-epidemic level (Chart 7).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e8a3a0e2f0ec7f2c7c4b238cea62a11\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Third, it should be noted that the accuracy of the initial value of non-agricultural data is limited. On May 7, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said in a speech that the non-farm payrolls report will be revised on a monthly basis, and it is not recommended to regard the data of a certain month as a potential trend. Combined with the structural characteristics of the initial value of non-agricultural data, we believe that disturbances such as supply chain disruption may be temporary, and the decrease in the number of \"part-time jobs\" and the increase in employment in the hotel tourism industry are also positive signals. The actual employment situation in the United States in April may not be so pessimistic, and this should not be used as a trend for \"linear extrapolation\".</p><p>3 The average hourly wage in April still grew rapidly month-on-month, and the \"countereffect\" of fiscal stimulus deserves attention</p><p>In April, the year-on-year growth rate of average hourly wage dropped sharply, mainly due to the base number, while the actual wage still increased rapidly month-on-month. After the epidemic, the labor market was in short supply, which made the average hourly wage of non-agricultural employees in the United States increase significantly higher than in previous years. In March, the average hourly wage of non-agricultural and non-managerial personnel increased by 4.55% year-on-year. This growth rate dropped sharply to 1.15% in April (Chart 8), but it was largely due to the base effect. In April 2020, the average hourly wage of non-agricultural and non-managerial personnel rose from US $24.15 to US $25.16. If we look at the month-on-month, the average hourly wage in April increased by 0.8% month-on-month, the highest increase this year (Chart 9). Hours per week in April were unchanged from March, but still below pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499046534ca554e77c8cb117cb01083f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department's spending has accelerated since March, which may have a \"countereffect\" on the job market. Note that since March 2021, the U.S. Treasury Department has begun to implement the TGA (Treasury General Account) reduction plan, spending approximately US $300 billion in March alone (Figure 10). In our previous report \"Slow Employment\" and \"Fast Inflation\" in the United States, we pointed out that the overall recovery of the U.S. job market is slow, which deviates from the \"fast recovery\" shown by other economic indicators. This is partly related to the vigorous fiscal stimulus in the United States. Since April 2020, government welfare has driven high income growth of residents, but at the same time, employment willingness may be suppressed, resulting in slow recovery of the job market and insufficient labor participation rate, and then enterprises have to raise wages to make up for the labor gap (Chart 11).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfa89b00b22d2bd7e8def30542644a0e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>4 Non-agricultural data in April was weak, but the market reacted positively</p><p>The market is obviously happy to see the weak employment data in the United States, and believes that the Federal Reserve is more likely to remain loose in the short term, and then the risk appetite will increase marginally, and the expectation of dollar depreciation and inflation expectation will further strengthen. After the release of non-agricultural data on May 7, the three major stock indexes all rose, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow closing up 0.88%, 0.74% and 0.66% respectively (Chart 12); The bond market reacted positively. The 10-year U.S. bond yield plunged intraday, then rebounded, and finally closed up 2bp, of which the 10-year TIPS interest rate fell by 2bp (Chart 13); Gold futures prices were significantly boosted (Chart 14); The US Dollar Index dived and closed at 90.24, a new low since February 25 (Chart 15).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaa756fa809932a70084916cd316142c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"941\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>5 Be wary of the \"nonlinear\" recovery of American employment</p><p>We believe that in the next 1-2 months (May-June), we should be alert to the \"nonlinear\" recovery of employment in the United States and the risks it may bring.</p><p>The U.S. non-farm payrolls data in April was significantly weaker than that in March. Considering the improvement of the U.S. epidemic and the continued advancement of vaccination, this phenomenon seems somewhat unexpected. We have observed foreign media reports that U.S. residents' concerns about COVID-19 pandemic are still an important reason hindering employment recovery. In addition, the U.S. job market may be disturbed by unexpected events (affected by severe weather in February this year, affected by supply chain disruptions in April, etc.). All these mean that the recovery of the US job market is likely to be \"non-linear\".</p><p>There are three main risks of the \"nonlinear\" recovery of the U.S. economy: First, the market is accustomed to \"linear extrapolation\" thinking, which is easy to cause misjudgment. For example, the market believes that if the employment data is weak, the probability of the Fed tightening policy will decrease, and then actively embrace risks. Based on the non-farm payrolls data of 916,000 in March, the market predicts that non-farm payrolls will increase by 1 million in April, which is an example.<b>One possible scenario is that the market's expectations for the employment data in May are lower, but the actual data may be significantly higher than expected.</b>By then, the market's nervousness about the Fed's monetary policy shift may reach its highest point, leading to asset selling and market volatility.</p><p><b>Second, \"cluster recovery\" may push up inflation faster.</b>If COVID-19 pandemic is the main factor hindering the recovery of employment in the United States, then it can be expected that when the \"herd immunity\" in the United States approaches (we expect it to be around July, refer to the report \"How far is the United States from\" herd immunity \"?\"), employment may \"get together\" Recovery, then economic activities such as production and consumption may rebound rapidly, and inflation indicators may rise rapidly.</p><p><b>Third, the deviation between employment and inflation trends will increase the difficulty for the market to judge the Fed's policy, which will easily lead to market fluctuations.</b>Based on the latest PCE data released in March and the Federal Reserve's forecast of the year-on-year growth rate of PCE in 2021 (the median forecast is 2.4%), our benchmark calculation shows that the year-on-year growth rate of PCE from April to May this year may reach 3% (Chart 16). However, if employment recovery is still slow, the Fed will fall into the dilemma of \"slow employment\" and \"fast inflation\". At least it will be more difficult for the Fed to communicate with the market. U.S. stocks and other risky assets are prone to fluctuations, which deserves vigilance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49dd065681f1d0a63d4960e36c6e256b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"566\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"lsy1602814587747","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Be wary of the \"nonlinear\" recovery of U.S. employment, market volatility may intensify in May-June</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBe wary of the \"nonlinear\" recovery of U.S. employment, market volatility may intensify in May-June\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">钟正生经济分析</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-09 08:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>If you look at the month-on-month, the average hourly wage in April increased by 0.8% month-on-month, the highest increase this year. Event: The United States created 266,000 new non-farm jobs in April, the unemployment rate was 6.1%, and the labor force participation rate was 61.7%.</p><p><b>The non-agricultural data in January and April fell short of expectations. Which industries are lagging behind?</b>The U.S. non-agricultural data in April was far lower than the previous value and expectations, and the employment gap exceeded 8.2 million. In April, 266,000 new non-farm jobs were created, compared with market expectations of close to 1 million. The initial value in March was 916,000, and the revised value was 770,000. Manufacturing, warehousing and transportation industries and \"part-time jobs\" dragged their feet, while leisure and hospitality industries performed well. The commodity production sector decreased by 16,000 people, mainly dragged down by the manufacturing industry; Employment in the transportation and warehousing industry decreased by 74,000, which may be related to the interruption of the international supply chain; Professional and business services (\"temporary support services\") dropped sharply by 111,400 people, but this may be a positive signal that \"part-time\" workers are beginning to move to \"full-time\" workers. The leisure and hotel industry increased significantly by 331,000 people, compared with the previous value of 206,000 people, reflecting that states in the United States have begun to relax restrictions on the movement of people.</p><p><b>The initial non-agricultural value in February and April may not be the whole picture of the employment situation in the United States.</b>First, the marginal improvement of labor participation enthusiasm in April is also the reason for the rise in unemployment rate. The unemployment rate (U3) in April was 6.1%, higher than the previous value of 6.0%. However, the labor participation rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 61.7% in April, corresponding to a new labor force of 430,000. Some new people entering the labor market may not have found jobs yet, which will increase the \"numerator and denominator\" at the same time and temporarily rise the unemployment rate. Second, the number of \"small non-farm payrolls\" and initial jobless claims is more optimistic. ADP created 742,000 new jobs in the private sector in April, higher than the previous value of 565,000. The latest number of initial jobless claims fell to 498,000, the lowest since the pandemic. Third, the accuracy of the initial value of non-agricultural data is limited. The non-farm payrolls report will be revised on a monthly basis. For April data, disturbances such as supply chain disruption may be temporary, and the decrease in the number of \"part-time jobs\" and the increase in employment in hotel tourism are also positive signals. The actual employment situation in the United States in April may not be so pessimistic, and it is not appropriate to use this as a trend for \"linear extrapolation\".</p><p><b>In March and April, the average hourly wage still increased rapidly from the previous month, and the \"reaction\" of fiscal stimulus deserves attention.</b>In April, the year-on-year growth rate of the average hourly wage of non-agricultural non-managerial personnel dropped sharply to 1.15%, largely due to the base effect. In April 2020, the average hourly wage of non-agricultural non-managerial personnel rose from US $24.15 to US $25.16. If you look at the month-on-month, the average hourly wage in April increased by 0.8% month-on-month, the highest increase this year. The U.S. Treasury Department's spending has accelerated since March, with the TGA (Treasury General Account) shrinking by about $300 billion in March. Government expenditure may have a \"counter-effect\" on the job market. Since April 2020, government welfare has driven high income growth of residents, but at the same time, employment willingness may be suppressed, resulting in slow recovery of the job market and insufficient labor participation rate. Then enterprises have to raise wages to make up for the labor gap.</p><p><b>The non-agricultural data in April and April was weak, but the market reacted positively.</b>The market is happy to see the weak employment data, and believes that the Federal Reserve is more likely to remain loose in the short term, and then the risk appetite will increase marginally, and the expectation of dollar depreciation and inflation expectation will further strengthen. After the release of non-agricultural data on May 7, the S&P 500 index reached a new high; The bond market responded positively, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield plunged intraday; Gold futures prices were significantly boosted; The US Dollar Index Diving.</p><p><b>5. Be wary of the \"nonlinear\" recovery of employment in the United States and related risks. Market volatility may intensify in May-June.</b>Considering the improvement of the epidemic situation in the United States and the continued advancement of vaccination, it is somewhat unexpected that the employment data in April was weaker than that in March, which means that the recovery of the U.S. job market is likely to be \"non-linear.\" There are three main risks of \"nonlinear\" recovery: First, the market is accustomed to linear extrapolation thinking, which is easy to cause misjudgment. The market believes that if the employment data is weak, the probability of the Fed tightening policy will decrease, and then actively embrace risks. One possible scenario is that the employment data in May may be significantly higher than expected, when the market's nervousness about the shift in monetary policy may reach its highest point, triggering market volatility. Second, \"cluster recovery\" may push up inflation faster. When the \"herd immunity\" in the United States approaches (we expect it to be around July), employment may \"get together\" to recover, and then economic activities such as production and consumption may rebound rapidly, and inflation indicators may rise rapidly. Third, the deviation between employment and inflation trends will increase the difficulty for the market to judge the Fed's policy, which will easily lead to market fluctuations. Our benchmark calculations show that the year-on-year growth rate of U.S. PCE from April to May this year may reach 3%. However, if employment recovery is still slow, the Fed will fall into the dilemma of \"slow employment\" and \"fast inflation\". At least it will be more difficult for the Fed to communicate with the market, and U.S. stocks and other risky assets are prone to fluctuations.</p><p>The non-agricultural data in April fell short of expectations. Which industries are lagging behind?</p><p>The U.S. non-agricultural data in April was far lower than the previous value and expectations, and the current employment gap exceeds 8.2 million. The United States added 266,000 new non-farm employment in April, compared with market expectations of close to 1 million. The initial value in March was 916,000, and the revised value was 770,000. The total number of non-farm employment in April was 1.4431 million, an increase of only about 3,000 from the previous value of 1.44 million. Currently, the total number of non-farm payrolls in the United States is 8.215 million lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic (February 2020) (Chart 1).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e31d9d1bc09767085bc713950ea8463a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Manufacturing, warehousing and transportation industries and \"part-time jobs\" dragged their feet, while leisure and hospitality industries performed well. Among the 266,000 new people in April, 234,000 came from the service industry, more than half less than that in March, 48,000 came from the government department, about a quarter less than that in March, and the commodity production sector decreased by 16,000, an increase of 166,000 in March. Employment in the commodity production sector in April was mainly dragged down by manufacturing (especially durable goods manufacturing) (Chart 2); Employment in the transportation and warehousing industry decreased by 74,000, which may be related to the interruption of the international supply chain. The Federal Reserve has also mentioned the \"bottleneck\" of the supply chain before; And the professional and business services industry dropped by 79,000, of which \"temporary support services\" dropped by 111,400, but this may be a positive signal that \"part-time\" workers are beginning to shift to \"full-time\" workers. The U.S. Department of Labor (BLS) reported a 580,000 decrease in \"part-time jobs for economic reasons\" due to an increase in full-time positions. The leisure and hotel industry increased significantly by 331,000 people, compared with the previous value of 206,000 people, reflecting that states in the United States have begun to relax restrictions on the movement of people (Chart 3).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7391ef70d5d9ffd318384b216952f3be\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2 The preliminary non-farm payrolls value in April may not be the full picture of the U.S. employment situation</p><p>The initial non-agricultural value in April may not be the full picture of the recovery pace of the U.S. job market. There are still a series of signals pointing to the marginal improvement of the U.S. job market.</p><p>First, the margin of labor participation in the United States improved in April, which is also the reason for the rise in unemployment rate. The U.S. unemployment rate (U3) in April was 6.1%, higher than the previous value of 6.0% and market expectations of 5.8% (Chart 4). However, the U.S. labor force participation rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 61.7% in April, corresponding to a new labor force of 430,000, although the current total labor force is still 3.46 million lower than before the epidemic (February 2020) (Chart 5). Some new people entering the labor market may not have found jobs yet, which will increase the \"numerator and denominator\" at the same time and temporarily rise the unemployment rate. In addition, the U6 unemployment rate (considering the broader unemployed population) fell by 0.3 percentage points to 10.4% in April.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9ad824a347d2937fd825a24c739c26f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Second, the number of \"small non-farm payrolls\" and initial jobless claims is more optimistic. The \"small non-agricultural\" (ADP private sector employment) data released the day before the non-agricultural data showed that 742,000 new jobs were created in the United States in April, higher than the previous value of 565,000 (Chart 6). In the week ending May 1, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States continued to fall to 498,000, the lowest since the epidemic, although the number was still 2.1 times the pre-epidemic level. In the week ending April 24, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States was 3.69 million, slightly higher than the previous value of 3.65 million and 2.4 times the pre-epidemic level (Chart 7).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e8a3a0e2f0ec7f2c7c4b238cea62a11\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Third, it should be noted that the accuracy of the initial value of non-agricultural data is limited. On May 7, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said in a speech that the non-farm payrolls report will be revised on a monthly basis, and it is not recommended to regard the data of a certain month as a potential trend. Combined with the structural characteristics of the initial value of non-agricultural data, we believe that disturbances such as supply chain disruption may be temporary, and the decrease in the number of \"part-time jobs\" and the increase in employment in the hotel tourism industry are also positive signals. The actual employment situation in the United States in April may not be so pessimistic, and this should not be used as a trend for \"linear extrapolation\".</p><p>3 The average hourly wage in April still grew rapidly month-on-month, and the \"countereffect\" of fiscal stimulus deserves attention</p><p>In April, the year-on-year growth rate of average hourly wage dropped sharply, mainly due to the base number, while the actual wage still increased rapidly month-on-month. After the epidemic, the labor market was in short supply, which made the average hourly wage of non-agricultural employees in the United States increase significantly higher than in previous years. In March, the average hourly wage of non-agricultural and non-managerial personnel increased by 4.55% year-on-year. This growth rate dropped sharply to 1.15% in April (Chart 8), but it was largely due to the base effect. In April 2020, the average hourly wage of non-agricultural and non-managerial personnel rose from US $24.15 to US $25.16. If we look at the month-on-month, the average hourly wage in April increased by 0.8% month-on-month, the highest increase this year (Chart 9). Hours per week in April were unchanged from March, but still below pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499046534ca554e77c8cb117cb01083f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department's spending has accelerated since March, which may have a \"countereffect\" on the job market. Note that since March 2021, the U.S. Treasury Department has begun to implement the TGA (Treasury General Account) reduction plan, spending approximately US $300 billion in March alone (Figure 10). In our previous report \"Slow Employment\" and \"Fast Inflation\" in the United States, we pointed out that the overall recovery of the U.S. job market is slow, which deviates from the \"fast recovery\" shown by other economic indicators. This is partly related to the vigorous fiscal stimulus in the United States. Since April 2020, government welfare has driven high income growth of residents, but at the same time, employment willingness may be suppressed, resulting in slow recovery of the job market and insufficient labor participation rate, and then enterprises have to raise wages to make up for the labor gap (Chart 11).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfa89b00b22d2bd7e8def30542644a0e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>4 Non-agricultural data in April was weak, but the market reacted positively</p><p>The market is obviously happy to see the weak employment data in the United States, and believes that the Federal Reserve is more likely to remain loose in the short term, and then the risk appetite will increase marginally, and the expectation of dollar depreciation and inflation expectation will further strengthen. After the release of non-agricultural data on May 7, the three major stock indexes all rose, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow closing up 0.88%, 0.74% and 0.66% respectively (Chart 12); The bond market reacted positively. The 10-year U.S. bond yield plunged intraday, then rebounded, and finally closed up 2bp, of which the 10-year TIPS interest rate fell by 2bp (Chart 13); Gold futures prices were significantly boosted (Chart 14); The US Dollar Index dived and closed at 90.24, a new low since February 25 (Chart 15).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaa756fa809932a70084916cd316142c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"941\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>5 Be wary of the \"nonlinear\" recovery of American employment</p><p>We believe that in the next 1-2 months (May-June), we should be alert to the \"nonlinear\" recovery of employment in the United States and the risks it may bring.</p><p>The U.S. non-farm payrolls data in April was significantly weaker than that in March. Considering the improvement of the U.S. epidemic and the continued advancement of vaccination, this phenomenon seems somewhat unexpected. We have observed foreign media reports that U.S. residents' concerns about COVID-19 pandemic are still an important reason hindering employment recovery. In addition, the U.S. job market may be disturbed by unexpected events (affected by severe weather in February this year, affected by supply chain disruptions in April, etc.). All these mean that the recovery of the US job market is likely to be \"non-linear\".</p><p>There are three main risks of the \"nonlinear\" recovery of the U.S. economy: First, the market is accustomed to \"linear extrapolation\" thinking, which is easy to cause misjudgment. For example, the market believes that if the employment data is weak, the probability of the Fed tightening policy will decrease, and then actively embrace risks. Based on the non-farm payrolls data of 916,000 in March, the market predicts that non-farm payrolls will increase by 1 million in April, which is an example.<b>One possible scenario is that the market's expectations for the employment data in May are lower, but the actual data may be significantly higher than expected.</b>By then, the market's nervousness about the Fed's monetary policy shift may reach its highest point, leading to asset selling and market volatility.</p><p><b>Second, \"cluster recovery\" may push up inflation faster.</b>If COVID-19 pandemic is the main factor hindering the recovery of employment in the United States, then it can be expected that when the \"herd immunity\" in the United States approaches (we expect it to be around July, refer to the report \"How far is the United States from\" herd immunity \"?\"), employment may \"get together\" Recovery, then economic activities such as production and consumption may rebound rapidly, and inflation indicators may rise rapidly.</p><p><b>Third, the deviation between employment and inflation trends will increase the difficulty for the market to judge the Fed's policy, which will easily lead to market fluctuations.</b>Based on the latest PCE data released in March and the Federal Reserve's forecast of the year-on-year growth rate of PCE in 2021 (the median forecast is 2.4%), our benchmark calculation shows that the year-on-year growth rate of PCE from April to May this year may reach 3% (Chart 16). However, if employment recovery is still slow, the Fed will fall into the dilemma of \"slow employment\" and \"fast inflation\". At least it will be more difficult for the Fed to communicate with the market. U.S. stocks and other risky assets are prone to fluctuations, which deserves vigilance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49dd065681f1d0a63d4960e36c6e256b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"566\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/470669.html\">钟正生经济分析</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67ddaab67c271192b52371b38356b471","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/470669.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175032729","content_text":"如果看环比，4月平均时薪环比增长0.8%，为今年以来最高增幅。\n\n事件：美国4月新增非农就业26.6万人，失业率为6.1%，劳动参与率为61.7%。\n1、 4月非农数据不及预期，哪些行业拖后腿?美国4月非农数据远低于前值和预期，就业缺口超820万人。4月新增非农就业26.6万人，此前市场预期接近100万人，3月初值为91.6万人、修正后为77万人。制造业、仓储运输业和“兼职”拖后腿，而休闲和酒店业表现亮眼。商品生产部门减少1.6万人，主要受制造业拖累;运输仓储业就业减少7.4万人，可能与国际供应链阻断有关;专业和商业服务业(“临时支持服务”)锐减11.14万人，但这可能是一个积极信号，表明“兼职”人员开始向“全职”转移。而休闲和酒店业大幅增加33.1万人，前值20.6万人，体现美国各州开始放宽人员流动限制。\n2、 4月非农初值可能并非美国就业形势的全貌。第一，4月劳动参与积极性边际改善，这也是失业率抬头的原因。4月失业率(U3)为6.1%，高于前值6.0%。不过，4月劳动参与率升0.2个百分点至61.7%，对应新增劳动力人口43万人。部分新进入劳动力市场的人口可能暂未找到工作，继而使“分子分母”同时增加、失业率暂时抬头。第二，“小非农”和初请失业金人数较为乐观。4月ADP私人部门新增就业74.2万人，高于前值56.5万人。最新初请失业金人数降至49.8万人，为疫情以来最低。第三，非农数据初值的准确性有限。非农就业报告会按月被修正。对于4月数据，供应链阻断等扰动或属暂时性，“兼职”人数减少和酒店旅游业就业增加亦是积极信号。4月美国实际就业形势或许没有那么悲观，不宜将此作为趋势进行“线性外推”。\n3、 4月平均时薪环比仍较快增长，财政刺激的“反作用”值得关注。4月非农非管理人员平均时薪同比增速大幅降落至1.15%，很大程度上源于基数效应，2020年4月非农非管理人员平均时薪由24.15美元升至25.16美元。如果看环比，4月平均时薪环比增长0.8%，为今年以来最高增幅。美国财政部3月以来支出加速，3月TGA(财政部一般账户)缩减约3000亿美元。而政府支出可能对就业市场产生“反作用”，2020年4月以来政府福利带动居民收入高增长，但与此同时就业意愿可能受到抑制，导致就业市场恢复偏慢，劳动参与率不足，继而企业不得不提高工资以弥补劳动力缺口。\n4、 4月非农数据疲弱，市场却反应积极。市场乐见就业数据疲弱，认为美联储短期更可能维持宽松，继而风险偏好边际升温，美元贬值预期以及通胀预期进一步走强。5月7日非农数据公布后，标普500指数再创新高;债市反应积极，10年美债收益率盘中跳水;黄金期货价格明显受到提振;美元指数跳水。\n5、 警惕美国就业“非线性”复苏及相关风险，5-6月市场波动可能加剧。考虑到美国疫情改善与疫苗接种持续推进，4月就业数据弱于3月有些出乎意料，意味着美国就业市场的恢复很可能是“非线性”的。“非线性”复苏的风险主要有三方面：一是，市场习惯于线性外推思维，容易造成误判。市场认为就业数据疲弱，美联储收紧政策的概率就会下降，继而主动拥抱风险。一个可能的情形是，5月就业数据可能大幅高于预期，届时市场对于货币政策转向的紧张情绪或至高点、引发市场波动。二是，“扎堆复苏”可能更快推升通胀。等到美国“群体免疫”临近(我们预计在7月左右)，就业可能“扎堆”复苏，继而生产、消费等经济活动可能快速反弹，通胀指标可能快速走高。三是，就业与通胀走势背离，将增加市场对于美联储政策判断的难度，继而容易引发市场波动。我们的基准测算显示，今年4-5月美国PCE同比增速或达到3%。但假如就业恢复仍然偏慢，美联储将陷入“慢就业”和“快通胀”的两难境地，至少美联储与市场沟通的难度将加大，美股及其他风险资产容易经历波动。\n1 4月非农数据不及预期，哪些行业在拖后腿?\n美国4月非农数据远低于前值和预期，目前就业缺口超820万人。美国4月新增非农就业26.6万人，此前市场预期接近100万人，3月初值为91.6万人、修正后为77万人。4月非农就业总人数为144.31万人，较前值144万人仅增加约3千人。目前，美国非农就业总人数比新冠疫情前(2020年2月)低821.5万人(图表1)。\n\n制造业、仓储运输业和“兼职”拖后腿，而休闲和酒店业表现亮眼。4月新增的26.6万人中，有23.4万人来自服务业、比3月减少一半以上，4.8万人来自政府部门、比3月减少约1/4，而商品生产部门减少1.6万人、3月为增加16.6万人。4月商品生产部门就业主要受制造业(尤其耐用品制造)拖累(图表2);运输仓储业就业减少7.4万人，可能与国际供应链阻断有关，此前美联储亦曾提及供应链“瓶颈”;专业和商业服务业锐减7.9万人，其中“临时支持服务”锐减11.14万人，但这可能是一个积极信号，表明“兼职”人员开始向“全职”转移。据美国劳工部(BLS)报告，“因经济原因从事非全日制工作”人数减少58万，原因是全职职位增加。而休闲和酒店业大幅增加33.1万人，前值20.6万人，体现美国各州开始放宽人员流动限制(图表3)。\n\n2 4月非农初值可能并非美国就业形势的全貌\n4月非农初值可能并非美国就业市场恢复节奏的全貌，仍有一系列信号指向美国就业市场正在边际改善。\n第一，4月美国劳动参与积极性边际改善，这也是失业率抬头的原因。4月美国失业率(U3)为6.1%，高于前值6.0%和市场预期的5.8%(图表4)。不过，4月美国劳动参与率升0.2个百分点至61.7%，对应新增劳动力人口43万人，虽然目前劳动力总人口仍比疫情前(2020年2月)低346万人(图表5)。部分新进入劳动力市场的人口可能暂未找到工作，继而使“分子分母”同时增加、失业率暂时抬头。此外，4月U6失业率(考虑更广义的失业人群)下降了0.3个百分点至10.4%。\n\n第二，“小非农”和初请失业金人数较为乐观。在非农数据前一天公布的“小非农”(ADP私人部门就业)数据显示，4月美国新增就业74.2万人，高于前值的56.5万人(图表6)。截至5月1日的一周，美国初请失业金人数继续下降至49.8万人，为疫情以来最低，虽然该数字仍为疫情前水平的2.1倍。截至4月24日的一周，美国续请失业金人数为369万人，略高于前值的365万人，为疫情前水平的2.4倍(图表7)。\n\n第三，需注意非农数据初值的准确性有限。5月7日美国财长耶伦讲话称，非农就业报告会按月被修正，不建议将某个月的数据视作潜在趋势。结合非农数据初值的结构性特点，我们认为，供应链阻断等扰动或属暂时，“兼职”人数减少和酒店旅游业就业增加亦是积极信号。4月美国实际就业形势或许没有那么悲观，不应将此作为趋势进行“线性外推”。\n3 4月平均时薪环比仍较快增长，财政刺激的“反作用”值得关注\n4月平均时薪同比增速大幅回落，主要是基数原因，实际薪资环比仍较快增长。疫情后劳动力市场供不应求，使美国非农员工平均时薪同比增速显著高于往年，3月非农非管理人员平均时薪同比增长4.55%。4月这一增速大幅降落至1.15%(图表8)，但很大程度上源于基数效应，2020年4月非农非管理人员平均时薪由24.15美元升至25.16美元。如果看环比，4月平均时薪环比增长0.8%，为今年以来最高增幅(图表9)。4月每周工时与3月持平，但仍低于疫情前水平。\n\n美国财政部3月以来支出加速，可能对就业市场产生“反作用”。注意到，2021年3月以来美国财政部开始执行TGA(财政部一般账户)缩减计划，仅3月就支出了约3000亿美元(图表10)。我们在之前报告《美国的“慢就业”与“快通胀”》中指出，美国就业市场恢复整体偏慢，与其他经济指标所显示的“快复苏”背离，这一定程度上与美国大力度的财政刺激有关。2020年4月以来，政府福利带动居民收入高增长，但与此同时就业意愿可能受到抑制，导致就业市场恢复偏慢、劳动参与率不足，继而企业不得不提高工资以弥补劳动力缺口(图表11)。\n\n4 4月非农数据疲弱，市场却反应积极\n市场显然乐见美国就业数据疲弱，认为美联储短期更可能维持宽松，继而风险偏好边际升温，美元贬值预期以及通胀预期进一步走强。5月7日非农数据公布后，三大股指齐涨，纳指、标普500和道指分别收涨0.88%、0.74%和0.66%(图表12);债市反应积极，10年美债收益率盘中跳水、之后回升，最终收涨2bp，其中10年TIPS利率降2bp(图表13);黄金期货价格明显受到提振(图表14);美元指数跳水、收于90.24，为2月25日以来新低(图表15)。\n\n5 警惕美国就业的“非线性”复苏\n我们认为，未来1-2个月(5-6月)应警惕美国就业的“非线性”复苏，及其可能带来的风险。\n4月美国非农就业数据明显弱于3月，考虑到美国疫情改善与疫苗接种持续推进，这一现象似乎有些始料未及。我们观察外媒报道，美国居民对新冠疫情的担忧依然是阻碍就业恢复的重要原因。此外，美国就业市场可能受到突发事件扰动(今年2月受恶劣天气影响、4月受供应链受阻影响等)。这些均意味着，美国就业市场的恢复很可能是“非线性”的。\n美国经济“非线性”复苏的风险主要有三方面：一是，市场习惯于“线性外推”思维，容易造成误判。例如，市场认为就业数据疲弱，美联储收紧政策的概率就会下降，继而主动拥抱风险。市场基于3月91.6万的非农就业数据，预测4月非农新增100万，就是一个例子。一个可能的情形是，市场对5月就业数据的预期降低，但实际数据可能大幅高于预期。届时，市场对于美联储货币政策转向的紧张情绪或至高点，导致资产抛售与市场震荡。\n二是，“扎堆复苏”可能更快推升通胀。如果新冠疫情是阻碍美国就业恢复的主因，那么可以预计等到美国“群体免疫”临近(我们预计在7月左右，参考报告《美国离“群体免疫”还有多远?》)，就业可能“扎堆”复苏，继而生产、消费等经济活动可能快速反弹，通胀指标可能快速走高。\n三是，就业与通胀走势背离，将增加市场对于美联储政策判断的难度，继而容易引发市场波动。基于最新公布的3月PCE数据，以及美联储对于2021年PCE同比增速的预判(预测中值为2.4%)，我们的基准测算显示，今年4-5月PCE同比增速或达到3%(图表16)。但假如就业恢复仍然偏慢，美联储将陷入“慢就业”和“快通胀”的两难境地，至少美联储与市场沟通的难度将加大，美股及其他风险资产容易经历波动，值得警惕。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":576,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109775678,"gmtCreate":1619736671894,"gmtModify":1704271452297,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561544476596136","idStr":"3561544476596136"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"5151","listText":"5151","text":"5151","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109775678","repostId":"1170908014","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170908014","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1618906754,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170908014?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-20 16:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: A-shares are closed for three days on May Day, and Hong Kong and US stocks trade as usual","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170908014","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"五一小长假即将要来临了，值得一提的是，今年五一劳动节继续连休五天。关于五一股市安排方面，也是投资者们关注的焦点，下面一起来看看2021年五一股市休市几天？A股：5月1日（周六）至5月5日（周三）休市，","content":"<p>The May Day holiday is coming soon. It is worth mentioning that this year's May Day will continue to take five consecutive days off. Regarding the May Day stock market arrangement, it is also the focus of investors' attention. Let's take a look at how many days the May Day stock market will be closed in 2021?<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcfc9f46149ed58e89371cfb512c504\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>A shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from May 1st (Saturday) to May 5th (Wednesday), and will open as usual from May 6th (Thursday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>US stocks:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>British stocks:</b></p><p>May 3rd (Monday) is the traditional British festival Bank holiday, and the British stock market is closed for one day</p><p><b>Singapore market:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Australian market:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed May 1st (Saturday) to May 5th (Wednesday) and open as usual from May 6th (Thursday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed from Thursday, April 29 to Wednesday, May 5, and open as usual from Thursday, May 6.</p><p>I wish all the most beautiful workers a happy May Day, peace and joy!<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/703fdb4d8b073167b0b526575917e6b9\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: A-shares are closed for three days on May Day, and Hong Kong and US stocks trade as usual</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: A-shares are closed for three days on May Day, and Hong Kong and US stocks trade as usual\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-20 16:19</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The May Day holiday is coming soon. It is worth mentioning that this year's May Day will continue to take five consecutive days off. Regarding the May Day stock market arrangement, it is also the focus of investors' attention. Let's take a look at how many days the May Day stock market will be closed in 2021?<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcfc9f46149ed58e89371cfb512c504\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>A shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from May 1st (Saturday) to May 5th (Wednesday), and will open as usual from May 6th (Thursday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>US stocks:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>British stocks:</b></p><p>May 3rd (Monday) is the traditional British festival Bank holiday, and the British stock market is closed for one day</p><p><b>Singapore market:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Australian market:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed May 1st (Saturday) to May 5th (Wednesday) and open as usual from May 6th (Thursday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed from Thursday, April 29 to Wednesday, May 5, and open as usual from Thursday, May 6.</p><p>I wish all the most beautiful workers a happy May Day, peace and joy!<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/703fdb4d8b073167b0b526575917e6b9\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/703fdb4d8b073167b0b526575917e6b9","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170908014","content_text":"五一小长假即将要来临了，值得一提的是，今年五一劳动节继续连休五天。关于五一股市安排方面，也是投资者们关注的焦点，下面一起来看看2021年五一股市休市几天？A股：5月1日（周六）至5月5日（周三）休市，5月6日（周四）起照常开市。港股：照常交易。美股：照常交易。英股：5月3日（周一）为英国传统节日Bank holiday，英股休市一日新加坡市场：照常交易。澳大利亚市场：照常交易。沪股通、深股通：5月1日（周六）至5月5日（周三）关闭，5月6日（周四）起照常开通。港股通：4月29日（周四）至5月5日（周三）关闭，5月6日（周四）起照常开通。祝各位最美劳动者五一节日快乐，平安喜乐！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":790,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9936000760,"gmtCreate":1662681376550,"gmtModify":1676537115220,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561544476596136","idStr":"3561544476596136"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9936000760","repostId":"1193358135","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":967,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9043285605,"gmtCreate":1655939999907,"gmtModify":1676535734142,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561544476596136","idStr":"3561544476596136"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok&nbsp;","listText":"Ok&nbsp;","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9043285605","repostId":"1165129643","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165129643","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1655911360,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1165129643?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-22 23:22","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Shushulang Education Holdings Limited passed listing hearing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165129643","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据港交所官网文件显示，6月22日晚，读书郎教育控股有限公司通过港交所上市聆讯，中信建投证券和麦格理为其联席保荐人。读书郎教育控股有限公司，是中国主要的智能学习硬件、系统和内容供应商。成立于1999年，","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>According to documents on the official website of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, on the evening of June 22, Shushulang Education Holdings Co., Ltd. passed the listing hearing of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with China Securities and Macquarie as its joint sponsors.</p><p>Shushulang Education Holdings Co., Ltd. is a major provider of intelligent learning hardware, systems and content in China. Founded in 1999, it is committed to providing students with integrated solutions for intelligent learning (ToC) and schools with integrated solutions for intelligent campus (ToB/G). As of the Latest Practicable Date, Shushulang products mainly include smart learning hardware such as AI student tablets and phone watches, Shushulang smart campus solutions, and provide AI and big data systems, educational content research and development and services.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Shushulang Education Holdings Limited passed listing hearing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShushulang Education Holdings Limited passed listing hearing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-22 23:22</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>According to documents on the official website of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, on the evening of June 22, Shushulang Education Holdings Co., Ltd. passed the listing hearing of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with China Securities and Macquarie as its joint sponsors.</p><p>Shushulang Education Holdings Co., Ltd. is a major provider of intelligent learning hardware, systems and content in China. Founded in 1999, it is committed to providing students with integrated solutions for intelligent learning (ToC) and schools with integrated solutions for intelligent campus (ToB/G). As of the Latest Practicable Date, Shushulang products mainly include smart learning hardware such as AI student tablets and phone watches, Shushulang smart campus solutions, and provide AI and big data systems, educational content research and development and services.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f45e630f2b8423c1283fe921facb38e","relate_stocks":{"02385":"读书郎"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165129643","content_text":"据港交所官网文件显示，6月22日晚，读书郎教育控股有限公司通过港交所上市聆讯，中信建投证券和麦格理为其联席保荐人。读书郎教育控股有限公司，是中国主要的智能学习硬件、系统和内容供应商。成立于1999年，致力于为学生提供智慧学习一体化解决方案（ToC），为学校提供智慧校园一体化解决方案（ToB/G）。截至最后实际可行日期，读书郎产品主要有AI学生平板、电话手表等为主的智慧学习硬件、读书郎智慧校园解决方案，并提供AI 和大数据系统、教育内容研发和服务。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"90098":0.9,"02385":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9089838779,"gmtCreate":1649980626357,"gmtModify":1676534619678,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561544476596136","idStr":"3561544476596136"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UBS\">$瑞银(UBS)$</a>upup","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UBS\">$瑞银(UBS)$</a>upup","text":"$瑞银(UBS)$upup","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8b0344e7501c0a0f6f4504d115e170f1","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9089838779","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":792,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9019664933,"gmtCreate":1648596790235,"gmtModify":1676534359245,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561544476596136","idStr":"3561544476596136"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UBS\">$瑞银(UBS)$</a>up up up","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UBS\">$瑞银(UBS)$</a>up up up","text":"$瑞银(UBS)$up up up","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/18a58fa4766337f4281fecc6bcab4ffe","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9019664933","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":756,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9031094708,"gmtCreate":1646377360857,"gmtModify":1676534123925,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561544476596136","idStr":"3561544476596136"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"12000🙄🙄","listText":"12000🙄🙄","text":"12000🙄🙄","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9031094708","repostId":"2216455949","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2216455949","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1646374855,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2216455949?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-04 14:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Copper inventories are extremely low, Goldman Sachs said copper prices are expected to break through $12,000!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2216455949","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高盛指出，作为全球最大铜生产国之一，俄罗斯铜出口渠道在制裁后将严重受限；考虑到目前明显的供应紧缺环境，铜库存有望进一步下降。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>\"Commodity Standard Bearer\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Continue to be bullish on copper prices, saying that the market \"misjudged\" Russian supply risks, and copper prices will reach a record high of US $12,000 per ton in the next 12 months. Goldman Sachs said Russia is one of the world's largest copper producers, with annual refined copper output of nearly 1 million tons, accounting for 7% of supply excluding China, and is the second largest refined copper exporter. So far, copper prices have responded relatively mildly to the risk of supply shortages caused by the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and this market reaction may be miscalculated.</p><p>After European and American countries introduce sanctions, Russia's export channels will be severely restricted. At present, the market is in an obvious supply shortage environment, and copper inventories are expected to face a further decline (after Russian exports are restricted), which will further push up copper prices.</p><p>In terms of copper inventories, inventories in the global copper market at the beginning of this year were far below historical levels, and room for relief was very limited. After the first quarter, judging from the historical market supply situation, it is not enough to solve the deficit problem in 2022. Goldman Sachs previously predicted that the supply and demand deficit this year will reach 197,000 tons.</p><p>The longer this situation continues, the higher the risk of extreme scarcity at the end of the year. Using seasonal criteria and the inventory path of its full-year deficit, Goldman Sachs inferred that global visible inventories will fall below 150,000 tons.</p><p>Previous news articles pointed out that the invisible inventory of the London Metal Exchange, one of the world's three largest futures exchanges, disappeared rapidly. In the first 11 months of 2021, the LME's copper spot inventory decreased by 115,000 tons, and the total at the end of November was only 18,945 tons. The lowest level since the exchange began releasing the data in February 2020.</p><p>In such a tight supply environment, the phenomenon of copper spot premium is becoming more and more serious. Typically, when there is a mismatch between supply and demand in the market, the market will enter a spot premium state to encourage inventory holders to bring goods to market.</p><p>In fact, there has been a spot premium phenomenon in the copper market since last October, and since there has been no sharp rise, the market has little sign of this. Goldman Sachs expects the spot premium to persist and the spread between copper spot and futures to continue to widen.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Copper inventories are extremely low, Goldman Sachs said copper prices are expected to break through $12,000!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCopper inventories are extremely low, Goldman Sachs said copper prices are expected to break through $12,000!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-04 14:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>\"Commodity Standard Bearer\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Continue to be bullish on copper prices, saying that the market \"misjudged\" Russian supply risks, and copper prices will reach a record high of US $12,000 per ton in the next 12 months. Goldman Sachs said Russia is one of the world's largest copper producers, with annual refined copper output of nearly 1 million tons, accounting for 7% of supply excluding China, and is the second largest refined copper exporter. So far, copper prices have responded relatively mildly to the risk of supply shortages caused by the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and this market reaction may be miscalculated.</p><p>After European and American countries introduce sanctions, Russia's export channels will be severely restricted. At present, the market is in an obvious supply shortage environment, and copper inventories are expected to face a further decline (after Russian exports are restricted), which will further push up copper prices.</p><p>In terms of copper inventories, inventories in the global copper market at the beginning of this year were far below historical levels, and room for relief was very limited. After the first quarter, judging from the historical market supply situation, it is not enough to solve the deficit problem in 2022. Goldman Sachs previously predicted that the supply and demand deficit this year will reach 197,000 tons.</p><p>The longer this situation continues, the higher the risk of extreme scarcity at the end of the year. Using seasonal criteria and the inventory path of its full-year deficit, Goldman Sachs inferred that global visible inventories will fall below 150,000 tons.</p><p>Previous news articles pointed out that the invisible inventory of the London Metal Exchange, one of the world's three largest futures exchanges, disappeared rapidly. In the first 11 months of 2021, the LME's copper spot inventory decreased by 115,000 tons, and the total at the end of November was only 18,945 tons. The lowest level since the exchange began releasing the data in February 2020.</p><p>In such a tight supply environment, the phenomenon of copper spot premium is becoming more and more serious. Typically, when there is a mismatch between supply and demand in the market, the market will enter a spot premium state to encourage inventory holders to bring goods to market.</p><p>In fact, there has been a spot premium phenomenon in the copper market since last October, and since there has been no sharp rise, the market has little sign of this. Goldman Sachs expects the spot premium to persist and the spread between copper spot and futures to continue to widen.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3653397\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeb9a4d452d8568bcc6a2558535ad160","relate_stocks":{"BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3653397","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2216455949","content_text":"“商品旗手”高盛继续唱多铜价，称市场“误判”俄罗斯供应风险，铜价未来12个月将上探每吨12000美元的纪录高位。高盛表示，俄罗斯是全球最大的铜生产国之一，年精炼铜产量接近100万吨，占除中国外供应的7%，并且是第二大精炼铜出口国。到目前为止，铜价对俄乌冲突升级造成的供应紧缺风险反应相对温和，这种市场反应可能存在误判。在欧美各国开启制裁措施后，俄罗斯的出口渠道将严重受限。目前市场处于明显的供应紧缺环境，（在俄罗斯出口受限后）铜库存有望面临进一步下降，这将进一步推高铜价。在铜库存方面，今年伊始全球铜市场的库存远低于历史水平，缓解空间十分有限。一季度后，从历史市场供给情况来看，也不足以解决2022年的赤字问题，高盛此前预计今年的供需赤字将达到19.7万吨。这种情况持续得越久年底出现极端稀缺的风险越高。高盛使用季节标准和其全年赤字的库存路径推断得出，全球可见库存将跌至15万吨以下。此前见闻文章指出，全球三大期货交易所之一伦敦金属交易所隐形库存消失得飞快，2021年前11个月，LME的铜现货库存减少了11.5万吨，11月底的总量只有18945吨，是该交易所自2020年2月开始发布该数据以来的最低水平。在如此紧张的供应环境下，铜现货升水现象越来越严重。通常情况下，市场供需出现不匹配时，市场就会进入现货溢价状态，以鼓励库存持有者将商品推向市场。事实上，自去年10月以来，铜市场就一直存在现货溢价现象，由于没有出现大幅的上涨，市场几乎没有迹象表明这一点。高盛预计，现货溢价将持续存在，铜现货和期货的价差将不断扩大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HGmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":971,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}