Alvin Chow
Alvin ChowCertificated Individuals
Tiger Certification: Dr Wealth CEO. Focuses on momentum, value and growth stocks in China, US and Singapore.
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avatarAlvin Chow
2023-06-21

Jack Ma is Changing Alibaba Behind the Scene

Alibaba has undergone a sudden and significant reorganization of its management structure. Daniel Zhang, previously serving as Chairman and CEO of Alibaba Group, will now step down from both positions and assume the role of CEO of Alibaba Cloud unit. Eddie Wu, one of Alibaba's co-founders, will take over as the Group CEO, while Joe Tsai, another co-founder, will become the chairman. Unlike Zhang, both Wu and Tsai have been with Alibaba since its inception. Wu initially served as a technology director in 1999 and possesses extensive experience in the company's core e-commerce business, monetization, and technology, making him a logical choic to oversee the entire group. Tsai previously held the position of the company's chief financial officer until 2013 and currently serves as executive vi
Jack Ma is Changing Alibaba Behind the Scene
avatarAlvin Chow
2023-07-29

Is China Bull Market Finally Here?

For two years, China's stocks have experienced a bear market, putting even the most patient investors to the test. Several false starts have occurred, where initially promising gains reversed course, leading to understandable investor skepticism about China stock recovery. To mitigate disappointment and avoid impulsive selling, it is better to set low short-term expectations. On the other hand, maintaining high long-term expectations can serve as motivation to remain patient and hold investments for a potentially significant future payoff. This attitude characterizes one approach to the current rally in China. The recent rally in China stocks can be attributed to the Politburo meeting, during which the narrative supporting the economy was emphasized. Top leaders made commitments to provide
Is China Bull Market Finally Here?
avatarAlvin Chow
2023-05-02

The Fed may raise 0.25% one last time this year

The Federal Reserve is convening once again to discuss interest rates over the next two days. Based on my analysis, I predict that there will be a 0.25% increase, marking the final hike for the year. Here's why. The first consideration is the impact that rate hikes have already had on the banking system. Banks have been hit hard by mark-to-market losses on their treasury bill holdings, as rising interest rates have pushed bond prices in the opposite direction. Several banks, including Silvergate Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and most recently First Republic Bank, have already suffered significant losses as a result of the recent rate hikes. Clearly something has broke. Given this situation, it seems unlikely that the Fed will adopt an aggressive stance on rate hikes in the nea
The Fed may raise 0.25% one last time this year
avatarAlvin Chow
2022-01-27

Netflix down 40%: bad price, good future?

1. $Netflix(NFLX)$Netflix share price has tanked 40% since the start of the year, and that’s just a span of 3 weeks. The reasons were a mix of the macro environment (interest rate rising causing a valuation reset) and Netflix’s earnings guidance for the next quarter.2. The latest earnings per share of $1.33 crushed consensus estimates of just $0.82, while revenue of $7.71b was in line with expectation. Netflix added 8.3m customers in the past quarter but the projection for Jan-Mar 2022 was a low 2.5m. That is even less than the 5.9m forecast by analysts. Netflix share price tanked 20% on that faithful day the guidance was given.3. It should be obvious by now that the positive effect of the pandemic - putting people at home and they have nothing to
Netflix down 40%: bad price, good future?
avatarAlvin Chow
2022-02-28

5 Takeaways from Buffett's FY2021 Shareholder Letter

Warren Buffett released his well-anticipated FY21 shareholder letter on 26 Feb 2022. Here are 5 takeaways. $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ #1 Berkshire has the most plant and equipment among American companies "Berkshire owns and operates more U.S.-based “infrastructure” assets – classified on our balance sheet as property, plant and equipment – than are owned and operated by any other American corporation. That supremacy has never been our goal. It has, however, become a fact." That's a cool fact. While the world is touting asset-light businesses, here we have Berkshire being the asset heaviest company in America. It wasn't deliberate but I think he saw these asset-heavy companies being irreplaceable (insurance, oil & gas and rai
5 Takeaways from Buffett's FY2021 Shareholder Letter
avatarAlvin Chow
2022-04-19

Why dividend ETFs may not be worthwhile

Who doesn't love getting passive income from dividends. But picking dividend stocks isn't passive and some investors want the reward without the work. Dividend ETFs can be a convenient way to do that.I went to do some research to see if I could find any interesting dividend ETFs over the past week. To my dismay, their value propositions aren't good enough. Let me explain.Dividend gains, unlike capital gains, are often taxable for investors. The US offers the most number of ETFs, over 2,000 of them, but it attracts a 30% dividend taxation for foreign investors. This would reduce the actual dividends received, and not to forget having to pay for the ETF fees too.I deem a good dividend ETF as one that is broadly diversified and could distribute at least 5% dividend yield.Global X SuperDividen
Why dividend ETFs may not be worthwhile
avatarAlvin Chow
2022-04-12

Charlie Munger halved stake in Alibaba

Munger is a well-known China bull. It became even more evident when he bought a substantial position (19% of the portfolio) in Alibaba via Daily Journal Corp in the first quarter of 2021.He doubled the position in Alibaba $Alibaba(BABA)$$Alibaba(09988)$at the start of 2022. Many investors look upon Munger as an influential investor and take heed in the things he say and do. Despite the tumbling share price, Alibaba investors found comfort in the wise man's 'endorsement'.But it all changed when Daily Journal's position in Alibaba was reportedly halved. It is optically damaging because it raises questions (did Munger think that it was a mistake) and dents confidence at the same time. It is likely that some
Charlie Munger halved stake in Alibaba
avatarAlvin Chow
2022-04-06

Buy low sell high vs buy high sell higher vs buy and hold

1. We don't trade the markets, we trade our beliefs about the markets. A good quote from Van Tharp. It is very true as we know there are many different investing or trading strategies out there.2. Some believe buying low and selling high is the only ironclad way to make money. It doesn't take a genius to understand that. This would result in investors focusing on valuation - is the price higher or lower than the value?3. This group believes in the mean reversion effect - what goes up must come down and what goes down must come up. Hence, they buy low and wait patiently for the rebound to happen. They are known as the value investors.4. Some believe buying low and selling high is dangerous, especially during a downtrending market. A stock that has become cheap can go down even more and be c
Buy low sell high vs buy high sell higher vs buy and hold
avatarAlvin Chow
2022-03-11

Hello stagflation

US Labor Department data showed that the consumer price index jumped 7.9% from a year ago following a 7.5% annual gain, the highest yoy gain in 40 years. What is high for US would be high for everyone else eventually. Even if you are not an investor, you will be concerned about the rising costs of living. It doesn't feel good to pay for higher prices on necessities and leave you with less money to buy stuff you desire. Air ticket prices may go up just when you thought you could travel after two years of Covid.How likely is inflation going to persist?Some believe that the commodity price spikes were caused by the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine and hence, prices should come down should the war ends. This is only one of the two factors. The war did cause a sudden spike in prices in th
Hello stagflation
avatarAlvin Chow
2022-02-21

Hotel profitability might take a while to recover

1. My family was on a staycation last weekend and it told me more about the state of the hospitality sector.2. Hotels were hit hard by the pandemic and even after two years, Singapore has not fully open to tourists. But some signs of recovery have been underway.3. The improving occupancy rate was obvious to me during breakfast where the restaurant was filled to the brim. And it was clear that the hotel was severely understaffed to be ready for such a crowd.4. There were long queues for every station and the food were not prepared well. The shrimp wanton noodles had neither shrimp nor wanton. A staff, who was clearly untrained, served 3/4 milk and 1/4 tea to another customer. 5. The restaurant crew were generally flustered and trying to keep up. They were doing their best but it was too ove
Hotel profitability might take a while to recover

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