Ikhas personal page - To The Moon

Ikhas

Ikhas

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2020-12-31

bb

@安心睡大觉:比特幣的價值與缺陷

2021-04-20

elasticity

Alarm goes off! Is the bull market in U.S. stocks already at a high level?

2021-04-06

rise of empire

Microsoft at 46: From Gates building an empire to Nadella's revival

2021-04-02

industry revolution

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-04-06

bubble bang

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-03-27

infrastructure improvemnet by Joe

Detailed explanation of Biden's reconstruction plan: how to build it? How much impact does it have on the stock market?

2021-08-21

call+put

@老鲁随笔:爆賺36倍！美股期權Vertical Spread組合詳解

2021-08-14

go

Palantir (PLTR.US) Q2 Performance Solid, Wall Street Still Doubts Sustainability of Growth

2021-04-14

soaring bit

Coinbase Apocalypse: The American Dream of Cryptocurrency Starting with Eleven-Page PPT

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Spread組合詳解","htmlText":"近期實在是有點忙不開，內容更新的有點慢，還請各位海涵，收到不少朋友的諮詢，說老魯我之前講的內容太過於專業，很多知識點消化不掉，操作上更是不敢下手，目前大部分操作還是以買call和買put爲主，短期內做對了也會有大幾百的收益率，但長期整體算下來還是虧損居多。 其實這位朋友反映的問題也是大部分新手目前的情況，這個階段老魯我也經歷過，多半是沉醉於自己的一兩次成功交易，而忘記覆盤下歷史所有交易的勝率有多少，長期下來，多數人是跑贏不了市場的，最終賺的錢還得一分不少的吐出來。 過了新手這個階段纔會認識到自己的交易知識需要提高，然後就開始拼命學習技術指標、企業財務分析、宏觀經濟、期權交易策略等等，學了一圈後發現原來交易股票和期權需要做出很多邏輯上的判斷，有了自己的觀點才能定方向；而不是像以前看到大v推薦就買，一條利好消息就全倉衝進去，結果賠個低兒掉 講了這麼多，我想表達的是：做交易，更需要學習的是交易你的觀點和邏輯，而不是跟單。如果僅僅是爲了跟單，爲何不去跟ark基金木頭姐的公開持倉呢，官網每天都會公佈每日買賣情況，而且都是行業專家選股，怎麼着也比大V更專業吧。 其實稍有點交易經驗的投資者都知道，即使給了你結果，這作業你也抄不好，沒自己的交易觀點，跌了就慌，慌了就跑，跑了就漲，根本也拿不住。 好了，又絮絮叨叨講了這麼多，我們進入正題！ 經常做期權交易的朋友會遇到這樣的情況：做期權看漲就買call，看跌就買put，太複雜了自己也看不懂，得過且過差不多就可以了，大不了虧了就跑 我接觸的投資者多數還是停留在這種認知層面上的，不能否定這種思維是錯誤的，但我的觀點是：你只需要每天學習一點，就會變得比現在更加優秀，市場幾千只股票，沒有人可以賺到認知以外的錢，如果有，那一定是運氣，如果你一直有好的運氣，也不會來看我的內容。不過我始終相信，看過我所有內容的朋友，認知都是高於其投資者的。 好，今天咱就把上","listText":"近期實在是有點忙不開，內容更新的有點慢，還請各位海涵，收到不少朋友的諮詢，說老魯我之前講的內容太過於專業，很多知識點消化不掉，操作上更是不敢下手，目前大部分操作還是以買call和買put爲主，短期內做對了也會有大幾百的收益率，但長期整體算下來還是虧損居多。 其實這位朋友反映的問題也是大部分新手目前的情況，這個階段老魯我也經歷過，多半是沉醉於自己的一兩次成功交易，而忘記覆盤下歷史所有交易的勝率有多少，長期下來，多數人是跑贏不了市場的，最終賺的錢還得一分不少的吐出來。 過了新手這個階段纔會認識到自己的交易知識需要提高，然後就開始拼命學習技術指標、企業財務分析、宏觀經濟、期權交易策略等等，學了一圈後發現原來交易股票和期權需要做出很多邏輯上的判斷，有了自己的觀點才能定方向；而不是像以前看到大v推薦就買，一條利好消息就全倉衝進去，結果賠個低兒掉 講了這麼多，我想表達的是：做交易，更需要學習的是交易你的觀點和邏輯，而不是跟單。如果僅僅是爲了跟單，爲何不去跟ark基金木頭姐的公開持倉呢，官網每天都會公佈每日買賣情況，而且都是行業專家選股，怎麼着也比大V更專業吧。 其實稍有點交易經驗的投資者都知道，即使給了你結果，這作業你也抄不好，沒自己的交易觀點，跌了就慌，慌了就跑，跑了就漲，根本也拿不住。 好了，又絮絮叨叨講了這麼多，我們進入正題！ 經常做期權交易的朋友會遇到這樣的情況：做期權看漲就買call，看跌就買put，太複雜了自己也看不懂，得過且過差不多就可以了，大不了虧了就跑 我接觸的投資者多數還是停留在這種認知層面上的，不能否定這種思維是錯誤的，但我的觀點是：你只需要每天學習一點，就會變得比現在更加優秀，市場幾千只股票，沒有人可以賺到認知以外的錢，如果有，那一定是運氣，如果你一直有好的運氣，也不會來看我的內容。不過我始終相信，看過我所有內容的朋友，認知都是高於其投資者的。 好，今天咱就把上","text":"近期實在是有點忙不開，內容更新的有點慢，還請各位海涵，收到不少朋友的諮詢，說老魯我之前講的內容太過於專業，很多知識點消化不掉，操作上更是不敢下手，目前大部分操作還是以買call和買put爲主，短期內做對了也會有大幾百的收益率，但長期整體算下來還是虧損居多。 其實這位朋友反映的問題也是大部分新手目前的情況，這個階段老魯我也經歷過，多半是沉醉於自己的一兩次成功交易，而忘記覆盤下歷史所有交易的勝率有多少，長期下來，多數人是跑贏不了市場的，最終賺的錢還得一分不少的吐出來。 過了新手這個階段纔會認識到自己的交易知識需要提高，然後就開始拼命學習技術指標、企業財務分析、宏觀經濟、期權交易策略等等，學了一圈後發現原來交易股票和期權需要做出很多邏輯上的判斷，有了自己的觀點才能定方向；而不是像以前看到大v推薦就買，一條利好消息就全倉衝進去，結果賠個低兒掉 講了這麼多，我想表達的是：做交易，更需要學習的是交易你的觀點和邏輯，而不是跟單。如果僅僅是爲了跟單，爲何不去跟ark基金木頭姐的公開持倉呢，官網每天都會公佈每日買賣情況，而且都是行業專家選股，怎麼着也比大V更專業吧。 其實稍有點交易經驗的投資者都知道，即使給了你結果，這作業你也抄不好，沒自己的交易觀點，跌了就慌，慌了就跑，跑了就漲，根本也拿不住。 好了，又絮絮叨叨講了這麼多，我們進入正題！ 經常做期權交易的朋友會遇到這樣的情況：做期權看漲就買call，看跌就買put，太複雜了自己也看不懂，得過且過差不多就可以了，大不了虧了就跑 我接觸的投資者多數還是停留在這種認知層面上的，不能否定這種思維是錯誤的，但我的觀點是：你只需要每天學習一點，就會變得比現在更加優秀，市場幾千只股票，沒有人可以賺到認知以外的錢，如果有，那一定是運氣，如果你一直有好的運氣，也不會來看我的內容。不過我始終相信，看過我所有內容的朋友，認知都是高於其投資者的。 好，今天咱就把上","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6a22078cb72fd73a48d6eb09c04e468","width":"688","height":"201"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f78371d8574e283ad99261f2145f747","width":"554","height":"54"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/126a537f9a74b8d887a69eab2333de2a","width":"688","height":"636"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831047902","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":36,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3524,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897145092,"gmtCreate":1628902403616,"gmtModify":1676529888262,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"go&nbsp;","listText":"go&nbsp;","text":"go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/897145092","repostId":"2159216292","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373555685,"gmtCreate":1618874812547,"gmtModify":1704716090703,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"elasticity","listText":"elasticity","text":"elasticity","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373555685","repostId":"1147524572","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147524572","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618838733,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147524572?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-19 21:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Alarm goes off! Is the bull market in U.S. stocks already at a high level?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147524572","media":"腾讯美股  ","summary":"总而言之，投资者最好还是尊重一下历史，毕竟标普500指数市盈率攀升到30，且盈利见顶的情况，历史上只在二十年前和现在出现过。诚然，美股牛市可能还会继续一段时间，但是投资者不保持谨慎，不保持警惕，显然是","content":"<p>All in all, investors had better respect history. After all, the P/E of the S&P 500 index climbed to 30 and earnings peaked, which only happened twenty years ago and now in history. Admittedly, the bull market in U.S. stocks may continue for some time, but it is obviously unadvisable for investors not to remain cautious and vigilant.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f413590001cd843da7ab41f47554741\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"718\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On Friday's trading day, encouraged by full confidence in the prospects for economic recovery, the S&P 500 index once again set a new historical closing point record. This also means that the U.S. stock market has reached a delicate node-P/E is extremely high, and earnings per share have reached a historic high. This situation has happened twice in history, in September 2000 and now. Calculated at the closing point of 4185.47 points, the index has reached above 30 relative to the \"normal\" profit (see below).</p><p>At first glance, P/E at 30 doesn't seem terrible. After all, in June last year, the most basic version of P/E, that is, P/E, which is based on the GAAP net profit record in the past four quarters, once reached 31. At that time, the market was about 26% lower than it is now. By the end of the fourth quarter of last year, P/E once reached nearly 40. However, this figure didn't bother Bull Pie at the time. The fact is that the S&P 500 index has entered carnival mode since then.</p><p>The key point is that in the context of the economy being deeply tortured by the epidemic, using profits in a distorted situation to measure whether stock prices are expensive or cheap has completely lost its meaning. For example, from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020, one-third of corporate profits were wiped out, so various valuation indicators have soared to extremely high levels.</p><p>It is obvious that as the epidemic crisis gradually becomes a thing of the past, corporate profits will rebound sharply from their lows. If you want to judge whether the current stock price is in the expensive or cheap range on the price spectrum, and then predict the future direction of the stock market accordingly, you must first get a key reference, \"normalized profits.\" Specifically, when the recovery is finally implemented, the profit S&P companies are most likely to make. Here, earnings per share data for the fourth quarter of 2019, which is $139.47 on an annualized basis, can be used.</p><p>There are two main reasons for selecting the data of 2019. First of all, the profit in 2019 not only set a historical record in absolute height, but also at a historically high level relative to the relative height of sales and other items. This means that it will be greatly more difficult for the real normalized profits to exceed its level in the future. Although Bull Pie may insist that 30's P/E is not a problem, because 2021 profits will even dwarf 2019.</p><p>Secondly, even under the strong economy in 2019, the profit of each quarter has basically not changed much, which means that corporate profits have reached a very high level relative to fundamentals, so there is not much further profit. There is room for growth. Even now, Wall Street analysts, who have always been known for being super optimistic, on the whole, only expect the annualized earnings per share in the second quarter of 2021 to reach $139, which is the same as in the fourth quarter of 2019. In short, in terms of corporate profits, a return to that peak is the most likely scenario in 2021.</p><p>From a historical point of view, the unemployment rate of the S&P 500 index exceeds 30, all of which occur in the cycle of sharp profit decline or even collapse, with the only exception being the present. For example, in the fourth quarter of 1999, when the peak of the Internet bubble was approaching, the index P/E once reached 30.5. At that time, earnings per share were at a historically high level, which was tantamount to releasing an alarm. In fact, investors are offering more than $30 for every dollar of profit, and this profit is already spent force, and it is difficult to go any further.</p><p>Although earnings per share persisted for a while later, reaching a new high of $53.70 in the third quarter of 2000, earnings per share failed to return to that level for four full years. The record profits came as the S&P 500 index also reached a near-record high of 1,518 points on September 1, 2000. At that time, the index had risen by 120% in the previous four years. In short, the most suitable comparison with today may be the period in 2000. After all, the S&P 500 index's earnings per share and points peaked at the same time, only twice.</p><p>Twenty years ago, on September 1, 2000, the traditional P/E of the S&P 500 was 26.75. From this perspective, today's P/E is 30, which is 12% higher than at the beginning. However, P/E alone obviously cannot reflect the panoramic view of the market. For example, if the fundamentals are used as a reference, the earnings per share in 2000 will actually be higher than that in 2021. From this perspective, P/E at that time was actually higher than it looked, because profits were destined to fall, while P/E now is actually lower than it looks, because profit levels will rise sharply.</p><p>Although the various factors that need to be taken into account are complex, with positive and negative interactions, overall, the level of corporate profits in the fourth quarter of 2019 looks similar to that at the peak of the technology bubble, and they are both at the high point in their respective relative cycles, or even The former is even higher. For example, for the whole of 2019, the combined earnings of the S&P 500 index were equivalent to 5.4% of national income, which was one percentage point higher than the 4.4% in the four quarters ending in September 2000. From the perspective of the ratio of operating profit to sales, the so-called operating profit margin, the figure in 2019 reached 11.1%, which is 4 percentage points higher than the cycle twenty years ago. The index's return on equity did be better two decades ago than it did in 2019, though, with 17.5% ahead of 15.5%.</p><p>Although not all, it is obvious that most indicators show that corporate profits in 2019 are relatively higher than those in 2000. Now, let's be conservative and assume that the two are at the same level. All in all, these are the only two periods in the history of U.S. stocks in which P/E reached a very high of around 30, while profits reached historic highs. From this comparison, what clues can we get about the present and future of the S&P 500 index?</p><p>If investors have already entered the market before, it is certainly good news for them that the P/E has climbed to 30 under the stock market boom. However, if investors are ready to enter the market now, or if they are ready to keep holding large US stock indexes without cashing in on their gains, then this is not good news for them. On this point, it couldn't be clearer by looking at what happened after September 1, 2000. The S&P 500 index entered a long downward channel, until it fell to 801 points on March 11, 2003, with a loss of 47% in the process. The index returned to the level of September 2000, seven years later, that is, in September 2007.</p><p>As we all know, after that, due to the global financial crisis, what awaits the index is another new downward channel. By the time it climbed above 1,500 points again, it was already March 2013. In other words, within a twelve-year cycle, if Dividend returns are not calculated, the rate of return that the index can provide investors is a huge zero egg.</p><p>Of course, no one can accurately predict whether the U.S. stock market will encounter a tragedy similar to that after the bursting of the Internet bubble in the future. At present, Niupai's expectation is that U.S. stocks will enter full-speed sailing mode driven by two favorable SF factors, namely, the rapidly growing corporate profits will greatly surpass 2019, and the ultra-low interest rate will continue to be maintained in the next few years, providing continuous support.</p><p>Of course, these two possibilities cannot be completely ruled out, but objectively speaking, they are not very likely things. As for how much benefit to get from both, the probability will be further reduced. First, let's take a look at corporate profits. As mentioned earlier, the peak profit in 2019 is equivalent to 5.4% of national income, climbing to a historic high. If profits grow faster than GDP as expected by Wall Street, it means that the relative proportion of profits needs to be further increased, which is obviously hard to expect.</p><p>What's more, at the end of last week, the ratio of the total market value of the S&P 500 to national income had reached an eye-popping 161%, nearly a quarter higher than the 130% in 2000. The average figure for the past two decades has nearly doubled, which means that it will be more difficult to increase the profit ratio.</p><p>Now, wages are finally starting to rise after years of stagnation, and corporate tax rates are likely to increase significantly during the Biden administration. In this case, further profits are already needed to remain higher than 160% of national income. Yes, it is too difficult to expect profits to expand and expand again.</p><p>As for interest rates, what Bull Pie expects is that in the next few years, the yield of 10-year Treasury Bond will continue to rise slower than the growth rate of GDP. This is the premise of all expectations, but unfortunately, such things have rarely happened in history. The fact is that under normal circumstances, the real interest rate adjusted for inflation will rise at a speed that keeps pace with economic growth \", and the cycle when the real interest rate becomes negative is often extremely short.</p><p>The most reasonable interpretation of today's phenomenon that the rate of return is not even lower than the inflation rate can only be that this is just a historical exception, a special phenomenon that has occurred after the economy has been hit by a severe epidemic that has only happened once in many years.</p><p>All in all, it's best for everyone to respect history. After all, the P/E of the S&P 500 index climbed to 30, and the profit peaked, which only happened twenty years ago and now in history. Admittedly, the bull market in U.S. stocks may continue for some time, but it is obviously unadvisable for investors not to remain cautious and vigilant.</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alarm goes off! Is the bull market in U.S. stocks already at a high level?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlarm goes off! Is the bull market in U.S. stocks already at a high level?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯美股  </strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-19 21:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>All in all, investors had better respect history. After all, the P/E of the S&P 500 index climbed to 30 and earnings peaked, which only happened twenty years ago and now in history. Admittedly, the bull market in U.S. stocks may continue for some time, but it is obviously unadvisable for investors not to remain cautious and vigilant.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f413590001cd843da7ab41f47554741\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"718\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On Friday's trading day, encouraged by full confidence in the prospects for economic recovery, the S&P 500 index once again set a new historical closing point record. This also means that the U.S. stock market has reached a delicate node-P/E is extremely high, and earnings per share have reached a historic high. This situation has happened twice in history, in September 2000 and now. Calculated at the closing point of 4185.47 points, the index has reached above 30 relative to the \"normal\" profit (see below).</p><p>At first glance, P/E at 30 doesn't seem terrible. After all, in June last year, the most basic version of P/E, that is, P/E, which is based on the GAAP net profit record in the past four quarters, once reached 31. At that time, the market was about 26% lower than it is now. By the end of the fourth quarter of last year, P/E once reached nearly 40. However, this figure didn't bother Bull Pie at the time. The fact is that the S&P 500 index has entered carnival mode since then.</p><p>The key point is that in the context of the economy being deeply tortured by the epidemic, using profits in a distorted situation to measure whether stock prices are expensive or cheap has completely lost its meaning. For example, from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020, one-third of corporate profits were wiped out, so various valuation indicators have soared to extremely high levels.</p><p>It is obvious that as the epidemic crisis gradually becomes a thing of the past, corporate profits will rebound sharply from their lows. If you want to judge whether the current stock price is in the expensive or cheap range on the price spectrum, and then predict the future direction of the stock market accordingly, you must first get a key reference, \"normalized profits.\" Specifically, when the recovery is finally implemented, the profit S&P companies are most likely to make. Here, earnings per share data for the fourth quarter of 2019, which is $139.47 on an annualized basis, can be used.</p><p>There are two main reasons for selecting the data of 2019. First of all, the profit in 2019 not only set a historical record in absolute height, but also at a historically high level relative to the relative height of sales and other items. This means that it will be greatly more difficult for the real normalized profits to exceed its level in the future. Although Bull Pie may insist that 30's P/E is not a problem, because 2021 profits will even dwarf 2019.</p><p>Secondly, even under the strong economy in 2019, the profit of each quarter has basically not changed much, which means that corporate profits have reached a very high level relative to fundamentals, so there is not much further profit. There is room for growth. Even now, Wall Street analysts, who have always been known for being super optimistic, on the whole, only expect the annualized earnings per share in the second quarter of 2021 to reach $139, which is the same as in the fourth quarter of 2019. In short, in terms of corporate profits, a return to that peak is the most likely scenario in 2021.</p><p>From a historical point of view, the unemployment rate of the S&P 500 index exceeds 30, all of which occur in the cycle of sharp profit decline or even collapse, with the only exception being the present. For example, in the fourth quarter of 1999, when the peak of the Internet bubble was approaching, the index P/E once reached 30.5. At that time, earnings per share were at a historically high level, which was tantamount to releasing an alarm. In fact, investors are offering more than $30 for every dollar of profit, and this profit is already spent force, and it is difficult to go any further.</p><p>Although earnings per share persisted for a while later, reaching a new high of $53.70 in the third quarter of 2000, earnings per share failed to return to that level for four full years. The record profits came as the S&P 500 index also reached a near-record high of 1,518 points on September 1, 2000. At that time, the index had risen by 120% in the previous four years. In short, the most suitable comparison with today may be the period in 2000. After all, the S&P 500 index's earnings per share and points peaked at the same time, only twice.</p><p>Twenty years ago, on September 1, 2000, the traditional P/E of the S&P 500 was 26.75. From this perspective, today's P/E is 30, which is 12% higher than at the beginning. However, P/E alone obviously cannot reflect the panoramic view of the market. For example, if the fundamentals are used as a reference, the earnings per share in 2000 will actually be higher than that in 2021. From this perspective, P/E at that time was actually higher than it looked, because profits were destined to fall, while P/E now is actually lower than it looks, because profit levels will rise sharply.</p><p>Although the various factors that need to be taken into account are complex, with positive and negative interactions, overall, the level of corporate profits in the fourth quarter of 2019 looks similar to that at the peak of the technology bubble, and they are both at the high point in their respective relative cycles, or even The former is even higher. For example, for the whole of 2019, the combined earnings of the S&P 500 index were equivalent to 5.4% of national income, which was one percentage point higher than the 4.4% in the four quarters ending in September 2000. From the perspective of the ratio of operating profit to sales, the so-called operating profit margin, the figure in 2019 reached 11.1%, which is 4 percentage points higher than the cycle twenty years ago. The index's return on equity did be better two decades ago than it did in 2019, though, with 17.5% ahead of 15.5%.</p><p>Although not all, it is obvious that most indicators show that corporate profits in 2019 are relatively higher than those in 2000. Now, let's be conservative and assume that the two are at the same level. All in all, these are the only two periods in the history of U.S. stocks in which P/E reached a very high of around 30, while profits reached historic highs. From this comparison, what clues can we get about the present and future of the S&P 500 index?</p><p>If investors have already entered the market before, it is certainly good news for them that the P/E has climbed to 30 under the stock market boom. However, if investors are ready to enter the market now, or if they are ready to keep holding large US stock indexes without cashing in on their gains, then this is not good news for them. On this point, it couldn't be clearer by looking at what happened after September 1, 2000. The S&P 500 index entered a long downward channel, until it fell to 801 points on March 11, 2003, with a loss of 47% in the process. The index returned to the level of September 2000, seven years later, that is, in September 2007.</p><p>As we all know, after that, due to the global financial crisis, what awaits the index is another new downward channel. By the time it climbed above 1,500 points again, it was already March 2013. In other words, within a twelve-year cycle, if Dividend returns are not calculated, the rate of return that the index can provide investors is a huge zero egg.</p><p>Of course, no one can accurately predict whether the U.S. stock market will encounter a tragedy similar to that after the bursting of the Internet bubble in the future. At present, Niupai's expectation is that U.S. stocks will enter full-speed sailing mode driven by two favorable SF factors, namely, the rapidly growing corporate profits will greatly surpass 2019, and the ultra-low interest rate will continue to be maintained in the next few years, providing continuous support.</p><p>Of course, these two possibilities cannot be completely ruled out, but objectively speaking, they are not very likely things. As for how much benefit to get from both, the probability will be further reduced. First, let's take a look at corporate profits. As mentioned earlier, the peak profit in 2019 is equivalent to 5.4% of national income, climbing to a historic high. If profits grow faster than GDP as expected by Wall Street, it means that the relative proportion of profits needs to be further increased, which is obviously hard to expect.</p><p>What's more, at the end of last week, the ratio of the total market value of the S&P 500 to national income had reached an eye-popping 161%, nearly a quarter higher than the 130% in 2000. The average figure for the past two decades has nearly doubled, which means that it will be more difficult to increase the profit ratio.</p><p>Now, wages are finally starting to rise after years of stagnation, and corporate tax rates are likely to increase significantly during the Biden administration. In this case, further profits are already needed to remain higher than 160% of national income. Yes, it is too difficult to expect profits to expand and expand again.</p><p>As for interest rates, what Bull Pie expects is that in the next few years, the yield of 10-year Treasury Bond will continue to rise slower than the growth rate of GDP. This is the premise of all expectations, but unfortunately, such things have rarely happened in history. The fact is that under normal circumstances, the real interest rate adjusted for inflation will rise at a speed that keeps pace with economic growth \", and the cycle when the real interest rate becomes negative is often extremely short.</p><p>The most reasonable interpretation of today's phenomenon that the rate of return is not even lower than the inflation rate can only be that this is just a historical exception, a special phenomenon that has occurred after the economy has been hit by a severe epidemic that has only happened once in many years.</p><p>All in all, it's best for everyone to respect history. After all, the P/E of the S&P 500 index climbed to 30, and the profit peaked, which only happened twenty years ago and now in history. Admittedly, the bull market in U.S. stocks may continue for some time, but it is obviously unadvisable for investors not to remain cautious and vigilant.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/LXEEhQeYt9fCEoRvmAPN1g\">腾讯美股  </a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f413590001cd843da7ab41f47554741","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/LXEEhQeYt9fCEoRvmAPN1g","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147524572","content_text":"总而言之，投资者最好还是尊重一下历史，毕竟标普500指数市盈率攀升到30，且盈利见顶的情况，历史上只在二十年前和现在出现过。诚然，美股牛市可能还会继续一段时间，但是投资者不保持谨慎，不保持警惕，显然是不可取的。上周五的交易日当中，在对经济复苏前景的充分信心鼓舞下，标普500指数再度刷新历史收盘点位纪录。这也就意味着，美股市场已经来到一个微妙的节点——市盈率极端高企，每股盈利达到历史性高点，这样的情况史上一共就出现过两次，分别是2000年9月和现在。以4185.47点的收盘点位计算，指数相对于“正常”盈利（见后文）已经来到了30以上。第一眼看上去，30的市盈率似乎也没有多可怕，毕竟去年6月的时候，最基础版本的市盈率，即基于过去四个季度通用会计准则净盈利记录的市盈率，曾经一度达到31，而那时候，大盘的点位较之现在还要低大约26%。到了去年第四季度结束的时候，市盈率，更是一度曾经达到近40。然而，这一数字当时并没有让牛派受到任何困扰，事实就是，标普500指数从那时开始还进入了狂欢派对模式。关键在于，在经济受到疫情深度折磨的大背景下，用扭曲局面下的盈利去度量股票价格到底是昂贵还是低廉，这种做法已经彻底失掉了意义。比如，从2019年第四季度到2020年第四季度，企业盈利有三分之一灰飞烟灭，于是，各种估值指标都因此窜升到了极高的水平。显而易见，伴随疫情危机逐渐成为过去，企业利润将会从低点大幅反弹。想要判断当今的股价到底在价格光谱上处于昂贵还是低廉的区间，进而据此预测股市未来的走向，首先必须得到一个关键的参照物，“正常化利润”。具体而言就是，当复苏最终落实时，标普企业最可能获得的盈利。在这里，可以使用2019年第四季度的每股盈利数据，年化后为139.47美元。选用2019年的数据，主要有两个原因。首先，2019年的利润不但绝对高度创下了历史纪录，而且相对于销售额和其他项目的相对高度，也处在历史性的高水平。这也就意味着，未来真正出现的正常化利润想要超越其水平，难度将大幅提高。尽管牛派可能会坚持说，30的市盈率不成其为问题，因为2021年的利润甚至会让2019年相形见绌。其次，哪怕是在2019年的强势经济之下，每个季度的盈利也基本上没有多大的变化，这就意味着企业利润相对于基本面已经达到了很高的水平，因此盈利已经没有多少进一步增长的空间了。哪怕现在，素来都以超级乐观闻名的华尔街分析师们，整体而言，也不过是预计2021年第二季度的每股盈利年化将达到与2019年第四季度持平的139美元。简而言之，就企业利润而言，重归那个峰值是2021年最可能发生的一幕。历史角度看来，标普500指数失业率超过30，都是发生在盈利大幅下滑，甚至崩溃的周期当中，唯一一个例外就是当下。比如，1999年第四季度，互联网泡沫峰值将至时，指数市盈率曾经达到30.5，而当时，每股盈利又处在历史性的高水平，这就等于释放出了一个警报。投资者事实上就是在为每1美元的盈利开出超过30美元的价格，而这盈利已经是强弩之末，很难再进一步了。虽然每股盈利后来又坚持了一阵子，至2000年第三季度再创新高，达到了53.70美元，但是之后整整四年时间里，每股盈利都再未能回到那个水平。创纪录的利润出现时，标普500指数也在2000年9月1日达到了接近最高纪录的1518点。当时，指数在之前四年当中累计上涨了120%。总之，最适合拿来和当今对比的，也许正是2000年的那段时间。毕竟，标普500指数每股盈利和点位同时达到峰值，只有这么两次。二十年前的2000年9月1日，标普500指数的传统市盈率为26.75。从这个角度来看，今天的市盈率为30，比当初还要高出12%。不过，单单市盈率显然无法体现市场的全景。比如说，如果将基本面拿来参照，则2000年的每股盈利其实要比2021年还要高。从这个角度说，当时的市盈率实质上要比看上去更高，因为利润注定将要走低，而现在的市盈率实质上则比看上去要更低，因为利润水平将会大幅上扬。虽然需要纳入考虑的各种因素错综复杂，积极与消极互见，但是整体而言，企业利润水平2019年第四季度看上去和科技泡沫巅峰时差不多，都是处于各自相对的周期内的高点，甚至前者还要更高一点。比如，2019年全年，标普500指数盈利合计相当于国民收入的5.4%，比起截至2000年9月的四个季度的4.4%还要高出一个百分点。从营业利润相对于销售额的比例，即所谓营业利润率来看，2019年的数字达到了11.1%，比起二十年前的周期更高出4个百分点。不过，二十年前指数的股本回报率确实要好于2019年，以17.5%领先于15.5%。虽然不是所有，但是显然，大多数指标都显示，2019年的企业利润要相对高于2000年，现在姑且保守一点，就假定两者是在同一水平线上。总而言之，这是美股历史上仅有的两段市盈率达到很高的30上下，同时盈利达到历史性高点的周期。从这比较当中，能够得到关于标普500指数当下和未来的怎样的线索呢？如果投资者是之前就已经入场，那么股市大繁荣之下，市盈率一路攀升到30，对于他们而言当然是好消息。不过，如果投资者是现在才准备入场，或者准备不兑现利得，继续持有美国大型股票指数，那对于他们而言，这可就不是什么好消息了。关于这一点，看看2000年9月1日之后发生了什么，就再清楚不过了。标普500指数进入了漫长的下滑通道，直至2003年3月11日跌至801点，过程当中损失幅度达到47%。指数重新回到2000年9月的水平，已经是七年之后，即2007年9月的事情了。众所周知，在那之后，由于全球金融危机的缘故，等待着指数的是又一条新的下滑通道，等到再度攀升到1500点以上，已经是2013年的3月了。换言之，在一段长达十二年的周期之内，如果不计算股息收益的话，指数能够为投资者提供的回报率就是一个巨大的零蛋。当然，美股未来是否会遭遇类似于当年互联网泡沫破灭之后那种暴跌的惨剧，是谁也不可能准确预测到的。目前，牛派的预期是，两大有利的顺丰因素驱动下，美股将进入全速航行模式，这两者即，快速增长的企业利润将大幅超越2019年，以及超低利率在未来几年还将继续保持，不断提供支持。这两个可能性当然都不能完全排除，但是客观而言，又都不是很大概率的事情。至于要从两者当中得到多大好处，则概率还会进一步降低。首先来看看企业利润。如前所述，2019年的峰值利润已经相当于国民收入的5.4%，攀上历史性的高点了。盈利要像华尔街所预计的那样，增速超过国内生产总值，就意味着利润的相对比例还需要进一步提升，这显然很难指望。更何况，上周结束时，标普500强的总市值相对于国民收入的比例已经达到了令人瞠目结舌的161%，比2000年时 的130%还要高出近四分之一，较之过去二十年的平均数字更是高出近一倍，这就意味着，利润占比想要提升，难度还将进一步增大。现在，工资在停滞多年后终于开始上涨，而企业税率很可能在拜登政府任内大幅度提升，在这种情况下，盈利要保持高过国民收入160%的水平，就已经需要利润进一步扩张了，指望利润扩张再扩张，这任务未免太过艰难。至于利率方面，牛派所指望的是，未来几年当中，十年期国债收益率的上涨速度将持续低于国内生产总值的增长速度，这是一切预期的前提，但遗憾的是，这样的事情在历史上极少发生。事实是，根据通货膨胀调整后的真实利率在正常情况下，其上涨速度是与经济增长同步的\"，而真实利率变成负数的周期，往往都极为短暂。今天收益率甚至不及通货膨胀率的现象，最合理的解读只能是，这只是一个历史的例外，是一种经济遭受多少年都仅此一次的严重疫情打击后，出现的特殊现象。总而言之，大家最好还是尊重一下历史，毕竟标普500指数市盈率攀升到30，且盈利见顶的情况，历史上只在二十年前和现在出现过。诚然，美股牛市可能还会继续一段时间，但是投资者不保持谨慎，不保持警惕，显然是不可取的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2522,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344038291,"gmtCreate":1618359355413,"gmtModify":1704709572707,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"soaring bit","listText":"soaring bit","text":"soaring bit","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344038291","repostId":"2127015413","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2127015413","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618311061,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2127015413?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-13 18:51","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Coinbase Apocalypse: The American Dream of Cryptocurrency Starting with Eleven-Page PPT","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2127015413","media":"深潮TechFlow","summary":"历史一刻即将来临，Coinbase将于周三（14日）在美国纳斯达克上市（代码COIN），成为加密货币世界的里程碑。彭博社消息，Coinbase估值或高达约1000亿美元，这一数值超过纳斯达克交易所加纽","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d202e56fe292c12f1ec756eff7095093\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A moment in history is coming. Coinbase will be listed on Nasdaq (code COIN) on Wednesday (14th), becoming a milestone in the cryptocurrency world.</p><p>Bloomberg News,<b>Coinbase's valuation may be as high as about $100 billion, which exceeds the combined market capitalization of the Nasdaq exchange and the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange.</b></p><p>Coinbase, founded in 2012, does not have much legendary color of barbaric growth. If the global cryptocurrency exchange is compared to a classroom, then Coinbase is a typical \"obedient student\": there are many exchanges with average early results and larger trading volume than Coinbase, and there are countless exchanges that are more innovative than Coinbase, but Coinbase is honest and obedient, and is deeply loved by teachers.</p><p>Finally, it happened that Coinbase came to the center of the stage.</p><p><b>Start with 11 pages of PPT</b></p><p>On Christmas Day 2010, Brian Armstrong accidentally read the Bitcoin white paper, which opened the door to cryptocurrency. He bought more than 1,000 Bitcoin pieces at a price of $9. When the price of Bitcoin once fell to $2, Armstrong did not leave the market, but has been writing code to buy Bitcoin. At the same time, he was aware of the entrepreneurial opportunities. Maybe he could create a Bitcoin company himself?</p><p>Two years later in the summer, Brian co-founded Coinbase with partner Fred Ehrsam, in the form of a wallet.</p><p>The two envisioned that Coinbase would become a Bitcoin marketplace where people could buy cryptocurrencies. Subsequently, they registered Coinbase into the Y Combinator entrepreneurial incubator project. On the YC roadshow day, Brian Armstrong used an eleven-page PPT to describe Coinbase's ideals and vision.<b>\"Coinbase is to Bitcoin what iTunes is to MP3.\"</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0e0708ac639513c2410ebd1f0b1f841\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b17b9ebe53adbaca801f770d01bb7ca4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41bede434eab58fecec80fecdd6b3342\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7342cc4cdece884e5f61c86d6676cb7\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9b15b37dce81a9a98c9abebf9f3131c\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae93cc3c61acfa7f72226dcbfb089420\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/954b4809a22c5020b4c771f0e55fa799\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/531e25c0f2ef847d1a8b6120996897b2\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37fe7fed51c3899aeeb0cf77acd5b5f3\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e161463a850b34c79a7a3488583edb8\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c8e3d2c29cceb50fbf98a0680641c21\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In 2017, when Brian Armstrong reviewed these eleven pages of Pitch Deck, he was quite impressed and wrote this passage:</p><p><b>Great things all start from humble beginnings.</b></p><p>Most things you see around you start out as just a simple idea and a crude prototype. To turn it into an \"overnight success\", it takes 5 to 10 years, with dozens of setbacks and route corrections along the way.</p><p><b>So, choose one thing you're passionate about and get started.</b></p><p><b>Slow and fast compliance</b></p><p>Duan Yongping once said, \"Slow is fast\".</p><p>Coinbase is not a case of rapid rise and barbaric growth. On the contrary, although it was established earlier, its trading volume is far surpassed by its younger generations.</p><p>If you compare global cryptocurrency exchanges to a classroom, then Coinbase is a typical \"good student\":<b>Although his grades are average, he is honest and obedient, and he is deeply liked by his teachers.</b></p><p>At the crossroads of development speed and compliance, Coinbase chose compliance.</p><p>Coinbase has been investing heavily in obtaining regulatory licenses. It has Money Transmitter Licenses in 50 states in the United States. At the same time, it has become one of the few exchanges with BitLicense issued by New York State specifically for digital currency exchanges. 33 countries have obtained licenses to legally trade legal currencies and opened up payment channels.</p><p>In addition to exchange business, Coinbase has also applied for and acquired licenses on a large scale in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. Currently, Coinbase has a series of financial licenses such as payment, savings, loans, financial derivatives trading, alternative asset trading, brokerage trading and investment consulting.</p><p>Previously, according to internal employees, the number of Coinbase's compliance team was once close to 1/3 of the company, occupying a large amount of the company's resources. This also led to Coinbase's high handling fees and insufficient investment in technology, operations and user experience.</p><p>Because of compliance, Coinbase is unable to provide a large number of currency transactions, nor does it provide derivatives transactions such as contracts, resulting in it lagging far behind similar exchanges outside the United States in terms of trading volume.</p><p>In Coinbase's compliance process, former chief legal officer Brian Brooks played a pivotal role, cooperating with various regulatory agencies to take the lead in building an industry alliance-type Crypto Rating Council (CRC).</p><p>In 2020, Brian Brooks was hired to supervise<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Head of the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC).</p><p>Coinbase's business strategy of focusing on compliance has not allowed it to achieve exponential growth in transaction volume and finance in a short period of time. However, due to its compliance operation and regulatory recognition, it is far ahead of other similar companies in accessing the mainstream financial field, laying a solid foundation for its medium and long-term development in the US market.</p><p>After completing the compliance infrastructure, Coinbase, which has delayed gratification, finally ushered in the spring of harvest in 2021.</p><p>Coinbase has been \"well-received but not well-received\" for a long time. It only achieved its first profit in 2017, with a net loss of US $30 million in 2019. It was not until the bull market came in 2020 that it turned losses into profits, with a net profit of US $322 million.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2021, Coinbase's performance exploded in an all-round way, achieving revenue of US $1.8 billion, a surge of 844% over the same period last year, and net profit close to US $800 million.</p><p>All this is inseparable from Coinbase's early compliance construction.</p><p><b>Building the Future</b></p><p>The slowness and stability of Coinbase also stems from Brian Armstrong's long-term planning.<b>Exchange business is a means, not the ultimate goal and destination of Coinbase.</b></p><p>In 2016, Brian Armstrong predicted the development of blockchain in the next few years based on the historical development law of the Internet. He divided the future of his blockchain world into four main stages, and based on what Coinbase can do in each stage, formulated a blueprint for Coinbase's development in the next ten years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8b4e8f8597b30239154d9904b4ec5b9\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"173\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Phase I (Agreement Phase): Development Agreement (serving 1 million people)</b></p><p>At this stage, new protocols (Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc) are created and people start improving them.</p><p>The open source community will develop around each protocol, and in some cases, these protocols will be sponsored and helped by enterprises. The race for protocols has begun, and it remains to be seen which protocol can be expanded and attract application developers.</p><p>Coinbase will not participate in this stage of development, but will only keep close cooperation with some excellent players.</p><p><b>Phase 2 (infrastructure): Establish a digital currency exchange (serving 10 million people)</b></p><p>In Brain Armstrong's view, investment or speculation is an indispensable initialization acceleration mechanism for the establishment of the future blockchain payment network, so the exchange business is indispensable.</p><p>Initially, Coinbase was just a wallet. Later, the GDAX exchange was established for institutional and professional investors, which is now Coinbase Pro. This constitutes Coinbase's core business. Coinbase will use the revenue from this stage to invest in the next stage of the plan, while continuing to expand these businesses to more countries.</p><p><b>The third stage (user portal): Establish a portal for digital currency applications (serving 100 million people)</b></p><p>When consumers start using blockchain applications (dApps), what they need is a simple user interface and portal. The portal in the Internet world is HTML and Web browser, which is built on the TCP/IP protocol.</p><p>In the blockchain world, Coinbase believes that it will be an undeveloped WEB browser similar product, and its bottom layer may be a wallet completely controlled by users.</p><p>This will lower the threshold for ordinary people to use it and reduce the difficulty of developing blockchain applications.</p><p>Coinbase will participate in this phase by building or investing in related teams.</p><p><b>The fourth stage (decentralized application): create an open financial system application (serving 1 billion people)</b></p><p>Brian Armstrong believes that the existing traditional financial system will be rebuilt into an open network that can be accessed by users all over the world. The applications needed in the future include:</p><p>Loans (mortgage loans, small business loans, micro-loans, etc.) Venture capital (seed investment, traditional VC, venture debt, etc.) Investment (stocks, index funds, savings accounts, etc.) Identity and reputation (ID card, identity authentication, credit score, etc.) Remittance (cross-border remittance) Merchant processing (retail, online orders) Coinbase will participate in this stage by building teams, acquiring and investing in various companies, and Coinbase will also establish developer tools and cooperate with regulators to draft regulatory schemes suitable for this industry.</p><p>To sum up, in Brian Armstrong's plan, the exchange is only the first step in building an ecosystem, and the money earned by the exchange will continue to be used to participate in the next stage of infrastructure construction and investment, so as to finally become an open financial system for one billion people. occupy a place in the system.</p><p>In 2016, Brian Armstrong thought they were at the end of Phase 2, but still in the early stages of blockchain.</p><p>Since then, Coinbase has firmly implemented this plan, upgraded the Gdax transaction to Coinbase Pro, focused on institutional users, and continued to broaden its boundaries through acquisitions:</p><p>Developed the wallet application Toshi, which was later renamed Coinbase Wallet; Acquisition of Ethereum dApp browser and wallet Cipher Browse; Acquisition of Ethereum P2P trading platform Paradex; Acquisition of Xapo's hosting business; Acquisition of Tagomi, a prime broker platform for digital asset trading; Acquisition of crypto trading infrastructure provider Routefire; Acquisition of blockchain infrastructure provider Bison Trails; Acquisition of cryptocurrency mission site Earn.com … Acquisition of three licensed financial services companies, securities dealers Keystone Capital, Venovate Marketlpace and Digital Wealth LLC.... Listing is not the end and purpose of Coinbase. Everything Coinbase has done so far is still preparing for the fourth stage, building an open financial system for the Coinbase ecosystem.</p><p><b>The \"American Dream\" of Cryptocurrencies</b></p><p>Coinbase's success is hard to replicate.</p><p>Lei Jun often said that pigs can fly when standing on the wind. There are many pigs flying on the wind of cryptocurrency, but there is only one Coinbase, because it is in the United States. Why don't China, Japan, and South Korea have no \"Coinbase\"?</p><p><b>The United States still holds currency hegemony, is the center of the global capital market, and has gradually gained the pricing power of Bitcoin.</b></p><p>In terms of supervision, China, the United States, and Japan have different regulatory ideas.</p><p>After the 1994 Movement, \"heavy chain currency suppression\" became the main theme of China's blockchain world.</p><p>China defines blockchain as a<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/III\">Information services</a>Technology, the main body of supervision is the Central Cyberspace Administration of China, while the financial risks that blockchain and cryptocurrency may bring are supervised by the People's Bank of China.</p><p>The regulatory agencies in the United States mainly include the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).</p><p>For token issuance and exchanges, the United States does not adopt a one-size-fits-all approach. Instead, it incorporates practical tokens and securities tokens into the corresponding regulatory system respectively. The issuance of securities tokens needs to be registered in accordance with the securities law, and the exchange operation needs to obtain a license.</p><p>At the same time, the US SEC frequently moves to crack down on all kinds of illegal ICOs.</p><p>Although Japan is one of the few countries in the world that provides legal protection for digital assets, the establishment and operation of cryptocurrency exchanges can be completely legal and compliant. However, due to strict supervision,<b>Japanese exchanges do not have the right to list currencies, which makes it more difficult to raise funds and trade local projects, and hinders the development of innovative projects to a certain extent.</b></p><p>Today's Coinbase has, to a certain extent, become a sample under the balance of cryptocurrency regulation in the United States.</p><p>Secondly, the United States, as the world's largest economy, provides a broad space for Coinbase. When Wall Street embraces Bitcoin, Coinbase has also become the \"Bitcoin steward\" of institutions because of its compliance advantages. According to Bituniverse data on April 13, The Coinbase platform currently has 870,000 Bitcoin, far exceeding Binance (215,100) and Huobi (252,300).</p><p><b>Behind the rise of Coinbase is the decline of Bitcoin's pricing power in the eastern world, and the western world centered on the United States has gained more chips and voice.</b></p><p>Whether it is business focus or moat, Coinbase is inseparable from the US regulatory agencies and the US market behind it.<b>Coinbase is not the ideal story of decentralization, but more of the \"American Dream\" of cryptocurrency.</b></p>","source":"lsy1592805329705","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Coinbase Apocalypse: The American Dream of Cryptocurrency Starting with Eleven-Page PPT</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoinbase Apocalypse: The American Dream of Cryptocurrency Starting with Eleven-Page PPT\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">深潮TechFlow</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-13 18:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d202e56fe292c12f1ec756eff7095093\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A moment in history is coming. Coinbase will be listed on Nasdaq (code COIN) on Wednesday (14th), becoming a milestone in the cryptocurrency world.</p><p>Bloomberg News,<b>Coinbase's valuation may be as high as about $100 billion, which exceeds the combined market capitalization of the Nasdaq exchange and the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange.</b></p><p>Coinbase, founded in 2012, does not have much legendary color of barbaric growth. If the global cryptocurrency exchange is compared to a classroom, then Coinbase is a typical \"obedient student\": there are many exchanges with average early results and larger trading volume than Coinbase, and there are countless exchanges that are more innovative than Coinbase, but Coinbase is honest and obedient, and is deeply loved by teachers.</p><p>Finally, it happened that Coinbase came to the center of the stage.</p><p><b>Start with 11 pages of PPT</b></p><p>On Christmas Day 2010, Brian Armstrong accidentally read the Bitcoin white paper, which opened the door to cryptocurrency. He bought more than 1,000 Bitcoin pieces at a price of $9. When the price of Bitcoin once fell to $2, Armstrong did not leave the market, but has been writing code to buy Bitcoin. At the same time, he was aware of the entrepreneurial opportunities. Maybe he could create a Bitcoin company himself?</p><p>Two years later in the summer, Brian co-founded Coinbase with partner Fred Ehrsam, in the form of a wallet.</p><p>The two envisioned that Coinbase would become a Bitcoin marketplace where people could buy cryptocurrencies. Subsequently, they registered Coinbase into the Y Combinator entrepreneurial incubator project. On the YC roadshow day, Brian Armstrong used an eleven-page PPT to describe Coinbase's ideals and vision.<b>\"Coinbase is to Bitcoin what iTunes is to MP3.\"</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0e0708ac639513c2410ebd1f0b1f841\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b17b9ebe53adbaca801f770d01bb7ca4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41bede434eab58fecec80fecdd6b3342\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7342cc4cdece884e5f61c86d6676cb7\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9b15b37dce81a9a98c9abebf9f3131c\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae93cc3c61acfa7f72226dcbfb089420\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/954b4809a22c5020b4c771f0e55fa799\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/531e25c0f2ef847d1a8b6120996897b2\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37fe7fed51c3899aeeb0cf77acd5b5f3\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e161463a850b34c79a7a3488583edb8\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c8e3d2c29cceb50fbf98a0680641c21\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In 2017, when Brian Armstrong reviewed these eleven pages of Pitch Deck, he was quite impressed and wrote this passage:</p><p><b>Great things all start from humble beginnings.</b></p><p>Most things you see around you start out as just a simple idea and a crude prototype. To turn it into an \"overnight success\", it takes 5 to 10 years, with dozens of setbacks and route corrections along the way.</p><p><b>So, choose one thing you're passionate about and get started.</b></p><p><b>Slow and fast compliance</b></p><p>Duan Yongping once said, \"Slow is fast\".</p><p>Coinbase is not a case of rapid rise and barbaric growth. On the contrary, although it was established earlier, its trading volume is far surpassed by its younger generations.</p><p>If you compare global cryptocurrency exchanges to a classroom, then Coinbase is a typical \"good student\":<b>Although his grades are average, he is honest and obedient, and he is deeply liked by his teachers.</b></p><p>At the crossroads of development speed and compliance, Coinbase chose compliance.</p><p>Coinbase has been investing heavily in obtaining regulatory licenses. It has Money Transmitter Licenses in 50 states in the United States. At the same time, it has become one of the few exchanges with BitLicense issued by New York State specifically for digital currency exchanges. 33 countries have obtained licenses to legally trade legal currencies and opened up payment channels.</p><p>In addition to exchange business, Coinbase has also applied for and acquired licenses on a large scale in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. Currently, Coinbase has a series of financial licenses such as payment, savings, loans, financial derivatives trading, alternative asset trading, brokerage trading and investment consulting.</p><p>Previously, according to internal employees, the number of Coinbase's compliance team was once close to 1/3 of the company, occupying a large amount of the company's resources. This also led to Coinbase's high handling fees and insufficient investment in technology, operations and user experience.</p><p>Because of compliance, Coinbase is unable to provide a large number of currency transactions, nor does it provide derivatives transactions such as contracts, resulting in it lagging far behind similar exchanges outside the United States in terms of trading volume.</p><p>In Coinbase's compliance process, former chief legal officer Brian Brooks played a pivotal role, cooperating with various regulatory agencies to take the lead in building an industry alliance-type Crypto Rating Council (CRC).</p><p>In 2020, Brian Brooks was hired to supervise<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Head of the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC).</p><p>Coinbase's business strategy of focusing on compliance has not allowed it to achieve exponential growth in transaction volume and finance in a short period of time. However, due to its compliance operation and regulatory recognition, it is far ahead of other similar companies in accessing the mainstream financial field, laying a solid foundation for its medium and long-term development in the US market.</p><p>After completing the compliance infrastructure, Coinbase, which has delayed gratification, finally ushered in the spring of harvest in 2021.</p><p>Coinbase has been \"well-received but not well-received\" for a long time. It only achieved its first profit in 2017, with a net loss of US $30 million in 2019. It was not until the bull market came in 2020 that it turned losses into profits, with a net profit of US $322 million.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2021, Coinbase's performance exploded in an all-round way, achieving revenue of US $1.8 billion, a surge of 844% over the same period last year, and net profit close to US $800 million.</p><p>All this is inseparable from Coinbase's early compliance construction.</p><p><b>Building the Future</b></p><p>The slowness and stability of Coinbase also stems from Brian Armstrong's long-term planning.<b>Exchange business is a means, not the ultimate goal and destination of Coinbase.</b></p><p>In 2016, Brian Armstrong predicted the development of blockchain in the next few years based on the historical development law of the Internet. He divided the future of his blockchain world into four main stages, and based on what Coinbase can do in each stage, formulated a blueprint for Coinbase's development in the next ten years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8b4e8f8597b30239154d9904b4ec5b9\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"173\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Phase I (Agreement Phase): Development Agreement (serving 1 million people)</b></p><p>At this stage, new protocols (Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc) are created and people start improving them.</p><p>The open source community will develop around each protocol, and in some cases, these protocols will be sponsored and helped by enterprises. The race for protocols has begun, and it remains to be seen which protocol can be expanded and attract application developers.</p><p>Coinbase will not participate in this stage of development, but will only keep close cooperation with some excellent players.</p><p><b>Phase 2 (infrastructure): Establish a digital currency exchange (serving 10 million people)</b></p><p>In Brain Armstrong's view, investment or speculation is an indispensable initialization acceleration mechanism for the establishment of the future blockchain payment network, so the exchange business is indispensable.</p><p>Initially, Coinbase was just a wallet. Later, the GDAX exchange was established for institutional and professional investors, which is now Coinbase Pro. This constitutes Coinbase's core business. Coinbase will use the revenue from this stage to invest in the next stage of the plan, while continuing to expand these businesses to more countries.</p><p><b>The third stage (user portal): Establish a portal for digital currency applications (serving 100 million people)</b></p><p>When consumers start using blockchain applications (dApps), what they need is a simple user interface and portal. The portal in the Internet world is HTML and Web browser, which is built on the TCP/IP protocol.</p><p>In the blockchain world, Coinbase believes that it will be an undeveloped WEB browser similar product, and its bottom layer may be a wallet completely controlled by users.</p><p>This will lower the threshold for ordinary people to use it and reduce the difficulty of developing blockchain applications.</p><p>Coinbase will participate in this phase by building or investing in related teams.</p><p><b>The fourth stage (decentralized application): create an open financial system application (serving 1 billion people)</b></p><p>Brian Armstrong believes that the existing traditional financial system will be rebuilt into an open network that can be accessed by users all over the world. The applications needed in the future include:</p><p>Loans (mortgage loans, small business loans, micro-loans, etc.) Venture capital (seed investment, traditional VC, venture debt, etc.) Investment (stocks, index funds, savings accounts, etc.) Identity and reputation (ID card, identity authentication, credit score, etc.) Remittance (cross-border remittance) Merchant processing (retail, online orders) Coinbase will participate in this stage by building teams, acquiring and investing in various companies, and Coinbase will also establish developer tools and cooperate with regulators to draft regulatory schemes suitable for this industry.</p><p>To sum up, in Brian Armstrong's plan, the exchange is only the first step in building an ecosystem, and the money earned by the exchange will continue to be used to participate in the next stage of infrastructure construction and investment, so as to finally become an open financial system for one billion people. occupy a place in the system.</p><p>In 2016, Brian Armstrong thought they were at the end of Phase 2, but still in the early stages of blockchain.</p><p>Since then, Coinbase has firmly implemented this plan, upgraded the Gdax transaction to Coinbase Pro, focused on institutional users, and continued to broaden its boundaries through acquisitions:</p><p>Developed the wallet application Toshi, which was later renamed Coinbase Wallet; Acquisition of Ethereum dApp browser and wallet Cipher Browse; Acquisition of Ethereum P2P trading platform Paradex; Acquisition of Xapo's hosting business; Acquisition of Tagomi, a prime broker platform for digital asset trading; Acquisition of crypto trading infrastructure provider Routefire; Acquisition of blockchain infrastructure provider Bison Trails; Acquisition of cryptocurrency mission site Earn.com … Acquisition of three licensed financial services companies, securities dealers Keystone Capital, Venovate Marketlpace and Digital Wealth LLC.... Listing is not the end and purpose of Coinbase. Everything Coinbase has done so far is still preparing for the fourth stage, building an open financial system for the Coinbase ecosystem.</p><p><b>The \"American Dream\" of Cryptocurrencies</b></p><p>Coinbase's success is hard to replicate.</p><p>Lei Jun often said that pigs can fly when standing on the wind. There are many pigs flying on the wind of cryptocurrency, but there is only one Coinbase, because it is in the United States. Why don't China, Japan, and South Korea have no \"Coinbase\"?</p><p><b>The United States still holds currency hegemony, is the center of the global capital market, and has gradually gained the pricing power of Bitcoin.</b></p><p>In terms of supervision, China, the United States, and Japan have different regulatory ideas.</p><p>After the 1994 Movement, \"heavy chain currency suppression\" became the main theme of China's blockchain world.</p><p>China defines blockchain as a<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/III\">Information services</a>Technology, the main body of supervision is the Central Cyberspace Administration of China, while the financial risks that blockchain and cryptocurrency may bring are supervised by the People's Bank of China.</p><p>The regulatory agencies in the United States mainly include the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).</p><p>For token issuance and exchanges, the United States does not adopt a one-size-fits-all approach. Instead, it incorporates practical tokens and securities tokens into the corresponding regulatory system respectively. The issuance of securities tokens needs to be registered in accordance with the securities law, and the exchange operation needs to obtain a license.</p><p>At the same time, the US SEC frequently moves to crack down on all kinds of illegal ICOs.</p><p>Although Japan is one of the few countries in the world that provides legal protection for digital assets, the establishment and operation of cryptocurrency exchanges can be completely legal and compliant. However, due to strict supervision,<b>Japanese exchanges do not have the right to list currencies, which makes it more difficult to raise funds and trade local projects, and hinders the development of innovative projects to a certain extent.</b></p><p>Today's Coinbase has, to a certain extent, become a sample under the balance of cryptocurrency regulation in the United States.</p><p>Secondly, the United States, as the world's largest economy, provides a broad space for Coinbase. When Wall Street embraces Bitcoin, Coinbase has also become the \"Bitcoin steward\" of institutions because of its compliance advantages. According to Bituniverse data on April 13, The Coinbase platform currently has 870,000 Bitcoin, far exceeding Binance (215,100) and Huobi (252,300).</p><p><b>Behind the rise of Coinbase is the decline of Bitcoin's pricing power in the eastern world, and the western world centered on the United States has gained more chips and voice.</b></p><p>Whether it is business focus or moat, Coinbase is inseparable from the US regulatory agencies and the US market behind it.<b>Coinbase is not the ideal story of decentralization, but more of the \"American Dream\" of cryptocurrency.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vx_QxhcTbgRnlQEfm16yzA\">深潮TechFlow</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d202e56fe292c12f1ec756eff7095093","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vx_QxhcTbgRnlQEfm16yzA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2127015413","content_text":"历史一刻即将来临，Coinbase将于周三（14日）在美国纳斯达克上市（代码COIN），成为加密货币世界的里程碑。彭博社消息，Coinbase估值或高达约1000亿美元，这一数值超过纳斯达克交易所加纽约证券交易所母公司的市值总和。成立于2012年的Coinbase并没有太多野蛮生长的传奇色彩，如果把全球加密货币交易所比作一间教室，那么Coinbase就是典型的“听话学生”：前期成绩一般，比Coinbase交易量大的交易所很多，比Coinbase创新的交易所不胜枚举，但Coinbase老实听话，深受老师的喜欢。最后，偏偏是Coinbase来到了舞台中央。从11页PPT开始2010年圣诞节，Brian Armstrong偶然间阅读了比特币白皮书，从此打开了加密货币的大门，他以9美元的价格购买了1000多枚比特币，在比特币价格一度跌到2美元的时候，Armstrong并没有离场，而是一直靠编写代码来购买比特币，与此同时，他觉察到了其中的创业机会，也许自己可以创建一个比特币公司？2年后的夏天，Brian与与合作伙伴Fred Ehrsam共同创建了Coinbase，以钱包的形式。两人设想，Coinbase将成为一个比特币市场，人们可以在这里购买加密货币。随后，他们将Coinbase登记入了Y Combinator创业孵化器项目，在 YC 路演日上，Brian Armstrong用了十一页PPT描绘 Coinbase 理想与愿景，“Coinbase之于比特币，就好比 iTunes之于MP3 。”2017年，当Brian Armstrong回顾这十一页Pitch Deck时，颇有感想，写下了这段话：伟大的事物都是从卑微的起点开始的。你身边看到的大多数东西，一开始不过是一个简单的想法和一个粗糙的原型，要把它变成 \"一夜成功\"，需要5到10年的时间，一路上要经历几十次挫折和路线修正。所以，选择一件你热衷的事情，开始吧。合规的慢与快段永平曾言，“慢就是快”。Coinbase并不是快速崛起，野蛮生长的案例，相反，尽管它成立较早，但是交易量远被它的后辈们超越。如果把全球加密货币交易所比作一间教室，那么Coinbase就是典型的“好学生”：尽管成绩一般，但是老实听话，深受老师的喜欢。在发展速度与合规的十字路口，Coinbase选择了合规。Coinbase一直在获得监管牌照方面不惜投入重金，拥有美国50个州的转账交易牌照（Money Transmitter License），同时成为为数不多的、拥有纽约州专门为数字货币交易所颁发的BitLicense的交易所，在33个国家取得合法交易法币的许可并打通支付渠道。除了交易所业务，Coinbase在产业链上下游也大规模申请和收购牌照， 目前Coinbase拥有支付、储蓄、贷款、金融衍生品交易、另类资产交易、券商交易和投资顾问等一系列金融牌照。此前据内部员工透露，Coinbase合规团队人数一度接近公司的1/3，占据公司大量资源，这也导致Coinbase手续费高昂，在技术、运营和用户体验上投入不足。因为合规，Coinbase无法提供大量币种交易，也没有提供合约这样的衍生品交易，导致其在交易量方面远远落后于美国境外的同类交易所。在Coinbase的合规进程中，前任首席法务官Brian Brooks发挥了举足轻重的作用，配合各个监管机构，牵头建设了行业联盟性质的加密数字货币评级委员会（Crypto Rating Council，CRC）。2020年，Brian Brooks被聘请担任为监管美国银行业的美国货币监理局（OCC）负责人。Coinbase专注合规的经营战略并没有让它在短期内实现交易量以及财务方面的指数级增长，但是由于它的合规经营，并且受到监管的认可，它在接入主流金融领域方面遥遥领先于其它同类公司，奠定了它在美国市场中长期发展的坚实基础。在完成合规的基础建设之后，延迟满足的Coinbase终于在2021年迎来收获的春天。Coinbase长期“叫好不叫座”，2017年才实现首次盈利，2019年净亏损3000万美元，直到2020年牛市来临，扭亏为盈，净利润3.22亿美元。2021一季度，Coinbase业绩全面爆发，实现营收18亿美元，较去年同期暴增844%，净利润接近8亿美元。这一切都离不开Coinbase早期的合规建设。建设未来Coinbase的慢与稳，也源于Brian Armstrong的长期规划，交易所业务是手段，而不是Coinbase的最终目的与归宿。2016年，Brian Armstrong 根据互联网的历史发展规律，预测了区块链未来几年的发展，他将其区块链世界未来划分为四个主要的阶段，并根据每个阶段 Coinbase能做的事情，制定了 Coinbase未来十年的发展蓝图。第一阶段（协议阶段）：开发协议（服务100万人）在这个阶段，新的协议（比特币、以太坊等）被创造了出来，人们开始改进这些协议。开源社区会围绕着每一个协议进行开发，在某些情况下，这些协议会得到企业的赞助和帮助。协议的竞赛已开始上演，究竟哪个协议可以得到扩展，并吸引应用开发者，仍有待于观察。Coinbase 不会参与这个阶段的开发，只会和一些优秀的玩家保持紧密合作。第二阶段（基础设施）：建立数字货币交易所（服务1000万人）在Brain Armstrong看来，投资或者说投机对于未来区块链的支付网络建立是不可或缺的初始化加速机制，因此交易所业务不可或缺。最初，Coinbase只是钱包，后来为机构和职业投资者建立了GDAX交易所，也就是如今的Coinbase Pro，这构成了Coinbase的核心业务，Coinbase 将用这阶段的收入来投资下一阶段计划，同时继续将这些业务扩展到更多的国家。第三阶段（用户入口）：为数字货币应用建立入口（服务1亿人）消费者在开始使用区块链应用（dApp）时，他们需要的是一个简单的用户界面和入口，互联网世界里的入口是HTML与Web浏览器，这是建立在TCP/IP协议之上。在区块链世界里，Coinbase 认为它会是尚未开发出来的WEB浏览器同类产品，其底层可能是一个完全由用户控制的钱包。这将降低普通人使用它的门槛，并且降低区块链应用的开发难度。Coinbase 将通过建立或投资相关的团队来参与这一阶段。第四阶段（去中心化应用）：打造一个开放式金融系统应用（服务10亿人）Brian Armstrong 认为现有的传统金融系统将被重建为一个开放式的网络，可供全球用户访问，未来需要的应用包括：贷款（抵押贷款、小企业贷款、小额贷款等）风险投资（种子投资、传统VC，风险债务等）投资（股票、指数型基金、储蓄账户等）身份与声誉（身份证、身份认证、信用评分等）汇款（跨境汇款）商户处理（零售、网络订单）Coinbase会通过建立团队、收购和投资各种公司的方式来参与这一阶段，并且Coinbase 也将建立开发者工具，并与监管机构合作来起草适合这一行业的监管方案。总结起来，在Brian Armstrong的规划中，交易所只是构建生态的第一步，并持续利用交易所赚的钱去参与下一个阶段的基础设施建设与投资，从而最终在面向十亿人的开放金融系统中占据一席之地。2016年，Brian Armstrong认为他们处于第二阶段的末尾期，但仍处于区块链的早期阶段。此后，Coinbase 坚定地执行了这个计划，把Gdax交易升级成Coinbase Pro，发力机构用户，并持续通过收购，拓宽自己的边界：开发了钱包应用 Toshi，后来改名为 Coinbase Wallet；收购以太坊dApp浏览器和钱包Cipher Browse；收购以太坊P2P交易平台Paradex；收购Xapo的托管业务；收购数字资产交易主经纪商平台Tagomi；收购加密交易基础设施提供商Routefire；收购区块链基础设施提供商Bison Trails；收购加密货币任务网站Earn.com……收购三家持牌金融服务公司，证券交易商 Keystone Capital，Venovate Marketlpace 和 Digital Wealth LLC 。……上市也不是Coinbase的终点和目的，目前Coinbase所做的一切，仍然在为第四个阶段，构建Coinbase生态的开放金融系统做准备。加密货币的“美国梦”Coinbase的成功难以复制。雷军常说，站在风口上，猪都能飞起来，站在加密货币的风口上飞起来的猪有很多，但Coinbase只有一个，因为它在美国，为什么中国、日本、韩国没有“Coinbase”？美国依然掌握了货币霸权，是全球资本市场的中心，并且逐渐得到了比特币的定价权。监管上，中国、美国、日本的监管思路不同。九四之后，“重链抑币”成为中国区块链世界的主旋律。中国将区块链定义为一种信息服务技术，监管主体是中央网信办，而对于区块链以及加密货币可能带来的金融风险，则由中国人民银行进行监管。美国的监管机构主要包括美国证券交易委员会 (SEC)、商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）。对于代币发行和交易所，美国并没有采用一刀切的方式，而是将实用型通证和证券性通证分别纳入相应监管体系，证券属性代币的发行需要依照证券法登记注册，交易所经营则需要获得牌照。与此同时，美国SEC频繁出手，打击各类非法ICO。尽管日本是全球为数不多为数字资产提供法律保障的国家之一，加密货币交易所的设立运营也完全可以合法合规，然而由于监管严苛，日本交易所没有上币权，从而导致本土项目募资和交易的难度变大，一定程度上阻碍了创新项目的发展。如今的Coinbase，一定程度上成为了美国加密货币监管平衡术下的样本。其次，美国作为全球最大的经济体，为Coinbase提供了广阔的空间，当华尔街拥抱比特币，Coinbase也因为其合规优势成为了机构们的“比特币大管家”，据Bituniverse 4月13日数据，目前Coinbase平台拥有87万枚比特币，远超币安（21.51万）和火币（25.23万）。Coinbase的崛起，背后是东方世界比特币定价权的衰落，以美国为中心的西方世界获得更多筹码以及话语权。无论是业务重心还是护城河，Coinbase都离不开身后的美国监管机构以及美国市场，Coinbase并不是去中心化的理想故事，更多是加密货币的“美国梦”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"COIN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2548,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342319580,"gmtCreate":1618184038440,"gmtModify":1704707111115,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mega infrastructure","listText":"mega infrastructure","text":"mega 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告訴美國佬，你們的通脹我們不吃了，愛印多少印多少吧！我要真的開始推動人民幣國際化了，先是俄羅斯、伊朗，剩下的再一個個來； 美國通脹預期飆升。 網上流傳一個段子： 一羣【印度人】開着【臺灣人】從【日本人】租來的【美國人】控股的船，掛着【巴拿馬人】的國旗，堵住了【埃及人】的蘇伊士運河，把【美國人】用來威脅【中國人】和【伊朗人】簽約的航母戰鬥羣堵在了地中海”——《到底誰是臥底》? 國運來了擋不住，說回股市，中伊這個協定，直接利好的三個板塊： 1、新疆 新疆以後對於我國的重要性越來越強；除了石油從這裏進來外，大量的高鐵、基建，還承載着我國的對外貿易。這也是爲啥，美國最近一直在新疆搞事情。 上週四，我在空間站裏提到的是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600540\">$新賽股份(600540)$</a> 。今天，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002941\">$新疆交建(002941)</a>","listText":"3月27日，中國和伊朗正式簽署一項爲期25年的協議，包括政治、戰略和經濟合作。 伊朗媒體報道，協議中重要的三條： 中國將增加對伊朗的基礎設施投資，提升伊朗整體國力； 中伊之間的石油和貿易往來，將使用人民幣和數字人民幣結算，避開美元； 伊朗的導彈，將使用“北斗”導航系統進行制導。 加上不久前的中俄外長會晤，這意味着中俄伊形成了亞歐大陸重要的“鐵三角”。此外，王部長還訪問了沙特、土耳其、伊朗、阿聯酋、巴林、阿曼六個中東國家，均得到了對中國的支持立場。 中東諸國對中國的支持，具有跨時代的重要意義，今天我們只講一些涉及金融的： 阿拉斯加會談打破了我們對美國最後的一絲希望：“我們把你們（美國）想的太好了” 我國外交由守轉攻，打破美國封鎖，給搖擺派、投降派、騎牆派以打擊，尤其是傲嬌的歐洲； 告訴美國佬，你們的通脹我們不吃了，愛印多少印多少吧！我要真的開始推動人民幣國際化了，先是俄羅斯、伊朗，剩下的再一個個來； 美國通脹預期飆升。 網上流傳一個段子： 一羣【印度人】開着【臺灣人】從【日本人】租來的【美國人】控股的船，掛着【巴拿馬人】的國旗，堵住了【埃及人】的蘇伊士運河，把【美國人】用來威脅【中國人】和【伊朗人】簽約的航母戰鬥羣堵在了地中海”——《到底誰是臥底》? 國運來了擋不住，說回股市，中伊這個協定，直接利好的三個板塊： 1、新疆 新疆以後對於我國的重要性越來越強；除了石油從這裏進來外，大量的高鐵、基建，還承載着我國的對外貿易。這也是爲啥，美國最近一直在新疆搞事情。 上週四，我在空間站裏提到的是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600540\">$新賽股份(600540)$</a> 。今天，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002941\">$新疆交建(002941)</a>","text":"3月27日，中國和伊朗正式簽署一項爲期25年的協議，包括政治、戰略和經濟合作。 伊朗媒體報道，協議中重要的三條： 中國將增加對伊朗的基礎設施投資，提升伊朗整體國力； 中伊之間的石油和貿易往來，將使用人民幣和數字人民幣結算，避開美元； 伊朗的導彈，將使用“北斗”導航系統進行制導。 加上不久前的中俄外長會晤，這意味着中俄伊形成了亞歐大陸重要的“鐵三角”。此外，王部長還訪問了沙特、土耳其、伊朗、阿聯酋、巴林、阿曼六個中東國家，均得到了對中國的支持立場。 中東諸國對中國的支持，具有跨時代的重要意義，今天我們只講一些涉及金融的： 阿拉斯加會談打破了我們對美國最後的一絲希望：“我們把你們（美國）想的太好了” 我國外交由守轉攻，打破美國封鎖，給搖擺派、投降派、騎牆派以打擊，尤其是傲嬌的歐洲； 告訴美國佬，你們的通脹我們不吃了，愛印多少印多少吧！我要真的開始推動人民幣國際化了，先是俄羅斯、伊朗，剩下的再一個個來； 美國通脹預期飆升。 網上流傳一個段子： 一羣【印度人】開着【臺灣人】從【日本人】租來的【美國人】控股的船，掛着【巴拿馬人】的國旗，堵住了【埃及人】的蘇伊士運河，把【美國人】用來威脅【中國人】和【伊朗人】簽約的航母戰鬥羣堵在了地中海”——《到底誰是臥底》? 國運來了擋不住，說回股市，中伊這個協定，直接利好的三個板塊： 1、新疆 新疆以後對於我國的重要性越來越強；除了石油從這裏進來外，大量的高鐵、基建，還承載着我國的對外貿易。這也是爲啥，美國最近一直在新疆搞事情。 上週四，我在空間站裏提到的是$新賽股份(600540)$ 。今天，$新疆交建(002941)","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59094069d0ed0614d3ca11b3da3303cc","width":"639","height":"355"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7de5d44e70aa80c73d0620ee1f414374","width":"581","height":"198"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01bdd6c7832cc18def7e66ab34030f7b","width":"904","height":"403"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/355053283","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3001,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343067970,"gmtCreate":1617664588690,"gmtModify":1704701430766,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"bubble bang","listText":"bubble bang","text":"bubble bang","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343067970","repostId":"2124543317","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343064676,"gmtCreate":1617664536895,"gmtModify":1704701429799,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"rise of empire","listText":"rise of empire","text":"rise of empire","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343064676","repostId":"1148759697","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148759697","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617602084,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148759697?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-05 13:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Microsoft at 46: From Gates building an empire to Nadella's revival","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148759697","media":"新智元","summary":"距离1975年4月4日比尔·盖茨与保罗·艾伦创办微软以来，已经过去了46个年头。微软一路走来，崛起，落幕再到反击，一步步地完成华丽蜕变。\n2021年4月4日，是微软46周岁的生日！\n\n距离1975年比","content":"<p>Since April 4, 1975, Bill Gates and Paul Allen founded<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Since then, 46 years have passed. Along the way, Microsoft has risen, ended and then fought back, completing its gorgeous transformation step by step.</p><p>April 4, 2021 is Microsoft's 46th birthday!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c556eaf14e7888dab1569feac7a8a3ed\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It's been 46 years since Bill Gates and Paul Allen founded Microsoft in 1975.</p><p>Just like a 46-year-old middle-aged man, Microsoft finally survived the midlife crisis and returned to the high-profile and dazzling technology throne with a mature and low-key attitude.</p><p>In order to commemorate those years we have gone through together, Xiaobian rummaged through boxes and cabinets and found out the journey of Microsoft along the way.</p><p><b>The Rise of Empire</b></p><p>When it comes to Microsoft, we have to start with Bill Gates, the man of the hour.</p><p>Bill Gates, 19, should be the most successful Harvard dropout.</p><p>In 1975, Bill Gates dropped out of Harvard University to sell with his high school alum Paul Allen BASIC (Beginners' All-purpose Symbolic Instruction Code). BASIC is a general symbolic instruction code for beginners, and it is a programming language designed for beginners to use.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e3b47fb0cff04e915c75dd116783ea1\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When Gates was still studying at Harvard, they also compiled languages for Altair of MITS Company.</p><p>Later, Gates and Allen moved to Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA, and founded Microsoft Corporation in a local hotel room. In the early days of the company's establishment, the main business of modifying BASIC programs continued to develop.</p><p>So, do you know how Microsoft got its name?</p><p>The word Microsoft consists of two parts: Microcomputer and software.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd1624aa9d27000141305dda2459fa51\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>If you know DOS, this will fully reveal your age!</p><p>In the 1980s,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>The company selected Microsoft to write key operating system software for its new PC-this became a major turning point in Microsoft's development.</p><p>But because time was tight and the program was complicated, Microsoft paid $50,000 from a programmer in Seattle<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDCO\">Patterson</a>I bought the right to use an operating system, and then rewrote it into disk operating system software (MS-DOS).</p><p>MS-DOS is just a single-user, single-task operating system. Systems like Windows 95, Windows 98 and Windows Me use DOS as the operating system carrier.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eb22081c598a5e266f2c4c9401296b4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The popularization of MS-DOS in IBM-PC has achieved great success. Other PC manufacturers wanted to be compatible with IBM, so in the 1980s, it became the standard operating system for PCs.</p><p>In 1995, at the age of 39, Gates ascended the throne of the richest man in the world with a net worth of $12.9 billion. Microsoft's sales revenue that year was $5.9 billion, and its employees reached 17,801.</p><p>In fact, from 1995 to 2007, Gates ranked first in Forbes' list of the world's richest man for 13 consecutive years, becoming the biggest winner in life.</p><p>Cross-century masterpiece: Windows</p><p>On November 10, 1983, the Windows operating system made its debut. The product is an evolution of the MS-DOS operating system and provides a graphical user interface.</p><p>Microsoft Windows 1.0 was officially launched in 1985, ending the command-line era of Microsoft operating systems.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1254e9ffec99643fce081d8cf482fe86\" tg-width=\"770\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Unlike Windows, MS-DOS operates by using commands, and the system runs programs according to the commands entered by the user.</p><p>Whereas Windows 1.0 allows users to point and click to access Windows instead of typing MS-DOS commands.</p><p>The Windows 1.0 operating system released by Microsoft was actually an extension of MS-DOS, which was not popular at the time. With continuous iterations, Windows 3.0 finally ushered in its initial victory.</p><p>It was late 1989 and Microsoft was hard at work to finally finalize the best version of Windows it knew to date.</p><p>Windows 3.0 places a heavy bet on the graphical user interface with a new 3D bevel design and shiny new icons.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ccb74506a615c95fede98719e5a01e7\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As Microsoft said at the time, this is an exciting product.</p><p>After more than two decades of development, Microsoft released the Windows 10 operating system that everyone is using today on July 29th, 2015.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/737fb0e0e36329d02dda162f6217873e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The end of the king</b></p><p>Microsoft in the Ballmer era lost again and again.</p><p>In 2000, Bill Gates handed over the position of CEO to Steve Ballmer, who was once in charge of company operations and day-to-day management.</p><p>He also created a new position for himself: Chief Software Architect.</p><p>Until 2008, Ballmer succeeded Gates as president of Microsoft. During his 13 years in charge of Microsoft, although Ballmer led Microsoft to achieve excellent results: the number of employees increased by three times, the annual revenue increased by four times, and the annual profit increased by ten times.</p><p>However, as the second CEO of Microsoft, Ballmer has suffered a lot of criticism.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47a1c1c6a3202fad77c2295afba1941b\" tg-width=\"611\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>His repeated attempts to lead Microsoft ended in failure. Windows Phone was strangled by iOS and Android, Windows 8 was frequently criticized, and cloud computing was difficult to break through.</p><p>During Ballmer's tenure as CEO of Microsoft, Microsoft's huge potential has penetrated into all aspects of the software industry, and it is simply invincible.</p><p>Windows accounts for more than 90% of the PC operating system market, and Microsoft's huge influence has put great pressure on software peers, pushing itself into the defendant position of antitrust law.</p><p><b>The Empire Strikes Back: The Return of the Age of Kings</b></p><p>In 2014, a 46-year-old Indian, Satya Nadella, officially took over as the third CEO of Microsoft.</p><p>At that time, Microsoft was like a twilight giant, and it was difficult to keep pace with the times, but Nadella single-handedly directed Microsoft's great revival.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7712e4be90659dbfcbf9846d854a78f4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Nadella not only transformed Microsoft's business strategy, but also reformed Microsoft's corporate culture. He has been working to change the way Microsoft operates by changing the way it thinks.</p><p>Up to now, Microsoft's market value has reached 1.83 trillion US dollars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c1f2c20c30d838a32a1308b380d46a2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"749\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the following five years, Nadella led Microsoft to find its direction again.</p><p>Microsoft abolishes former CEO Ballmer's $7.2 billion acquisition<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">Nokia</a>The mobile phone business announced the largest layoffs in history, accounting for 14% of the company's total of more than 120,000 employees worldwide.</p><p>All these trade-offs are to focus on cloud services.</p><p>Under Nadella's leadership, Microsoft cut the budget of its Windows department and built a huge cloud computing business-Microsoft Azure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21984c7ce006e141c0b3fc7c52ef93b5\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Currently, Microsoft's cloud platform Azure has won the favor of many large enterprise customers.</p><p>Office, our Office productivity software, has gradually become a cloud service. It has gained more than 214 million subscribers, who have to pay a subscription fee of $99 every year.</p><p>In the eyes of Microsoft's internal employees, Nadella's transformation of corporate culture has contributed a lot to the company's revival!</p><p>Microsoft, left behind by the previous CEO, is in a serious infighting, with executives fighting for power, and teams shirking responsibility for problems.</p><p>In the book \"Refresh-Rediscovering Business and the Future\", Nadella bluntly stated that business strategy transformation is not his top priority as Microsoft CEO. The CEO is the CEO, but also the cultural executive.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fccecc75731bd7c7a26ad4906aa6762\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>He inspired Microsoft employees to be learn-it-all people.</p><p>From Windows to the cloud, Nadella transformed Microsoft's chariot and achieved Microsoft's trillion-dollar market value.</p><p>Microsoft is 46 years old, and it is still king when it returns.</p>","source":"lsy1569730104218","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft at 46: From Gates building an empire to Nadella's revival</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft at 46: From Gates building an empire to Nadella's revival\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新智元</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-05 13:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Since April 4, 1975, Bill Gates and Paul Allen founded<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Since then, 46 years have passed. Along the way, Microsoft has risen, ended and then fought back, completing its gorgeous transformation step by step.</p><p>April 4, 2021 is Microsoft's 46th birthday!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c556eaf14e7888dab1569feac7a8a3ed\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It's been 46 years since Bill Gates and Paul Allen founded Microsoft in 1975.</p><p>Just like a 46-year-old middle-aged man, Microsoft finally survived the midlife crisis and returned to the high-profile and dazzling technology throne with a mature and low-key attitude.</p><p>In order to commemorate those years we have gone through together, Xiaobian rummaged through boxes and cabinets and found out the journey of Microsoft along the way.</p><p><b>The Rise of Empire</b></p><p>When it comes to Microsoft, we have to start with Bill Gates, the man of the hour.</p><p>Bill Gates, 19, should be the most successful Harvard dropout.</p><p>In 1975, Bill Gates dropped out of Harvard University to sell with his high school alum Paul Allen BASIC (Beginners' All-purpose Symbolic Instruction Code). BASIC is a general symbolic instruction code for beginners, and it is a programming language designed for beginners to use.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e3b47fb0cff04e915c75dd116783ea1\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When Gates was still studying at Harvard, they also compiled languages for Altair of MITS Company.</p><p>Later, Gates and Allen moved to Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA, and founded Microsoft Corporation in a local hotel room. In the early days of the company's establishment, the main business of modifying BASIC programs continued to develop.</p><p>So, do you know how Microsoft got its name?</p><p>The word Microsoft consists of two parts: Microcomputer and software.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd1624aa9d27000141305dda2459fa51\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>If you know DOS, this will fully reveal your age!</p><p>In the 1980s,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>The company selected Microsoft to write key operating system software for its new PC-this became a major turning point in Microsoft's development.</p><p>But because time was tight and the program was complicated, Microsoft paid $50,000 from a programmer in Seattle<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDCO\">Patterson</a>I bought the right to use an operating system, and then rewrote it into disk operating system software (MS-DOS).</p><p>MS-DOS is just a single-user, single-task operating system. Systems like Windows 95, Windows 98 and Windows Me use DOS as the operating system carrier.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eb22081c598a5e266f2c4c9401296b4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The popularization of MS-DOS in IBM-PC has achieved great success. Other PC manufacturers wanted to be compatible with IBM, so in the 1980s, it became the standard operating system for PCs.</p><p>In 1995, at the age of 39, Gates ascended the throne of the richest man in the world with a net worth of $12.9 billion. Microsoft's sales revenue that year was $5.9 billion, and its employees reached 17,801.</p><p>In fact, from 1995 to 2007, Gates ranked first in Forbes' list of the world's richest man for 13 consecutive years, becoming the biggest winner in life.</p><p>Cross-century masterpiece: Windows</p><p>On November 10, 1983, the Windows operating system made its debut. The product is an evolution of the MS-DOS operating system and provides a graphical user interface.</p><p>Microsoft Windows 1.0 was officially launched in 1985, ending the command-line era of Microsoft operating systems.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1254e9ffec99643fce081d8cf482fe86\" tg-width=\"770\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Unlike Windows, MS-DOS operates by using commands, and the system runs programs according to the commands entered by the user.</p><p>Whereas Windows 1.0 allows users to point and click to access Windows instead of typing MS-DOS commands.</p><p>The Windows 1.0 operating system released by Microsoft was actually an extension of MS-DOS, which was not popular at the time. With continuous iterations, Windows 3.0 finally ushered in its initial victory.</p><p>It was late 1989 and Microsoft was hard at work to finally finalize the best version of Windows it knew to date.</p><p>Windows 3.0 places a heavy bet on the graphical user interface with a new 3D bevel design and shiny new icons.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ccb74506a615c95fede98719e5a01e7\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As Microsoft said at the time, this is an exciting product.</p><p>After more than two decades of development, Microsoft released the Windows 10 operating system that everyone is using today on July 29th, 2015.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/737fb0e0e36329d02dda162f6217873e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The end of the king</b></p><p>Microsoft in the Ballmer era lost again and again.</p><p>In 2000, Bill Gates handed over the position of CEO to Steve Ballmer, who was once in charge of company operations and day-to-day management.</p><p>He also created a new position for himself: Chief Software Architect.</p><p>Until 2008, Ballmer succeeded Gates as president of Microsoft. During his 13 years in charge of Microsoft, although Ballmer led Microsoft to achieve excellent results: the number of employees increased by three times, the annual revenue increased by four times, and the annual profit increased by ten times.</p><p>However, as the second CEO of Microsoft, Ballmer has suffered a lot of criticism.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47a1c1c6a3202fad77c2295afba1941b\" tg-width=\"611\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>His repeated attempts to lead Microsoft ended in failure. Windows Phone was strangled by iOS and Android, Windows 8 was frequently criticized, and cloud computing was difficult to break through.</p><p>During Ballmer's tenure as CEO of Microsoft, Microsoft's huge potential has penetrated into all aspects of the software industry, and it is simply invincible.</p><p>Windows accounts for more than 90% of the PC operating system market, and Microsoft's huge influence has put great pressure on software peers, pushing itself into the defendant position of antitrust law.</p><p><b>The Empire Strikes Back: The Return of the Age of Kings</b></p><p>In 2014, a 46-year-old Indian, Satya Nadella, officially took over as the third CEO of Microsoft.</p><p>At that time, Microsoft was like a twilight giant, and it was difficult to keep pace with the times, but Nadella single-handedly directed Microsoft's great revival.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7712e4be90659dbfcbf9846d854a78f4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Nadella not only transformed Microsoft's business strategy, but also reformed Microsoft's corporate culture. He has been working to change the way Microsoft operates by changing the way it thinks.</p><p>Up to now, Microsoft's market value has reached 1.83 trillion US dollars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c1f2c20c30d838a32a1308b380d46a2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"749\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the following five years, Nadella led Microsoft to find its direction again.</p><p>Microsoft abolishes former CEO Ballmer's $7.2 billion acquisition<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">Nokia</a>The mobile phone business announced the largest layoffs in history, accounting for 14% of the company's total of more than 120,000 employees worldwide.</p><p>All these trade-offs are to focus on cloud services.</p><p>Under Nadella's leadership, Microsoft cut the budget of its Windows department and built a huge cloud computing business-Microsoft Azure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21984c7ce006e141c0b3fc7c52ef93b5\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Currently, Microsoft's cloud platform Azure has won the favor of many large enterprise customers.</p><p>Office, our Office productivity software, has gradually become a cloud service. It has gained more than 214 million subscribers, who have to pay a subscription fee of $99 every year.</p><p>In the eyes of Microsoft's internal employees, Nadella's transformation of corporate culture has contributed a lot to the company's revival!</p><p>Microsoft, left behind by the previous CEO, is in a serious infighting, with executives fighting for power, and teams shirking responsibility for problems.</p><p>In the book \"Refresh-Rediscovering Business and the Future\", Nadella bluntly stated that business strategy transformation is not his top priority as Microsoft CEO. The CEO is the CEO, but also the cultural executive.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fccecc75731bd7c7a26ad4906aa6762\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>He inspired Microsoft employees to be learn-it-all people.</p><p>From Windows to the cloud, Nadella transformed Microsoft's chariot and achieved Microsoft's trillion-dollar market value.</p><p>Microsoft is 46 years old, and it is still king when it returns.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/EG0UhC7JbuuFF6EcdIBbpg\">新智元</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/556acfb895c7cc721517dba494c0775b","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/EG0UhC7JbuuFF6EcdIBbpg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148759697","content_text":"距离1975年4月4日比尔·盖茨与保罗·艾伦创办微软以来，已经过去了46个年头。微软一路走来，崛起，落幕再到反击，一步步地完成华丽蜕变。\n2021年4月4日，是微软46周岁的生日！\n\n距离1975年比尔·盖茨(Bill Gates)与保罗·艾伦(Paul Allen)创办微软，已经过去了46个年头。\n就像46岁的中年人，微软终于熬过了中年危机，以成熟低调的姿态重回高调耀眼的科技王座。\n为了纪念共同走过的那些岁月，小编翻箱倒柜，找出了微软一路走来的历程。\n帝国的崛起\n提到微软，还得从比尔·盖茨这一风云人物说起。\n19岁的比尔·盖茨应该是最成功的哈佛辍学者。\n1975年，比尔·盖茨从哈佛大学退学，和他的高中校友保罗·艾伦一起卖BASIC（Beginners' All-purpose Symbolic Instruction Code）。BASIC是「初学者通用符号指令代码」，是一种设计给初学者使用的程序设计语言。\n\n当盖茨还在哈佛读书时，他们还曾为MITS公司的Altair编制语言。\n后来，盖茨和艾伦搬到美国新墨西哥州阿尔伯克基，并在当地一家旅馆房间里创建了微软公司，公司创立初期以修改BASIC程序为主要业务继续发展。\n那么，你知道Microsoft这个名字如何得来的吗？\nMicrosoft一词由「Microcomputer」和「software」两部分组成。\n\n如果你知道DOS，这会充分暴露你的年龄！\n20世纪80年代，IBM公司选中微软为其新PC编写关键的操作系统软件——这成为微软发展中的一个重大转折点。\n但是由于当时时间紧迫，程序复杂，微软便以5万美元的价格从西雅图的一位程序编制者帕特森手中买下了一个操作系统的使用权，再把它改写为磁盘操作系统软件（MS-DOS）。\nMS-DOS只是一个单用户单任务的操作系统，像Windows 95、Windows 98和Windows Me等正是以DOS为操作系统载体。\n\nMS-DOS在IBM-PC机的普及取得了巨大的成功。其他的PC制造者都希望与IBM兼容，因此80年代，它成了PC机的标准操作系统。\n1995年，正值39岁的盖茨以129亿美元身价登顶世界首富的王座。微软当年销售收入为59亿美元，员工达到了17801人。\n实际上从1995年到2007年，盖茨连续13年《福布斯》全球首富排行榜第一，成为最大的人生赢家。\n跨世纪大作：Windows\n1983年11月10日，Windows操作系统首次登台亮相。该产品是MS-DOS操作系统的演进版，并提供了图形用户界面。\nMicrosoft Windows 1.0 于1985年正式推出，结束了微软操作系统的命令行时代。\n\n与Windows不同，MS-DOS通过使用命令来进行操作，系统根据用户输入的命令进行程序的运行。\n而Windows 1.0允许用户指向并单击以访问Windows，而不是键入MS-DOS命令。\n微软发布的Windows 1.0操作系统其实就是对MS-DOS的扩展，在当时没有受到欢迎。随着不断迭代，Windows 3.0终于迎来了最初的胜利。\n那是1989年末，微软正在努力工作，最终敲定了它所知道的迄今为止最好的Windows版本。\nWindows 3.0版通过一个新的3D斜面设计和闪亮的新图标在图形用户界面上投下了重注。\n\n正如微软当时所说，这是一个令人兴奋的产品。\n经过二十多年的发展，微软在2015年7月29日发布了如今大家都在使用的Windows 10操作系统。\n\n王者的落幕\n鲍尔默时代的微软一败再败。\n2000年比尔·盖茨把首席执行官的位置交给了曾经负责公司运营和日常管理的史蒂夫·鲍尔默，\n还给自己创建了一个新的职位：首席软件构架师。\n直到2008年，鲍尔默接替盖茨成为微软的总裁。在执掌微软的13年间，虽然鲍尔默带领微软创下了优秀的成绩：员工数增加3倍，年营收增长4倍，年利润增长10倍。\n但是，作为微软的第二任 CEO，鲍尔默遭受过很多的批评。\n\n他带领着微软的屡次尝试多以失败告终，Windows Phone 遭 iOS、Android 绞杀，Windows 8 频遭诟病，云计算难于突破。\n在鲍尔默出任微软CEO期间，微软的巨大潜力已经渗透到了软件界的方方面面，简直是所向披靡，\nWindows在PC操作系统市场的份额超过90%，微软的巨大影响已经对软件同行构成了极大的压力，把自己推上了反垄断法的被告位置。\n帝国反击：王者时代的归来\n2014年，一位46岁的印度人——萨蒂亚·纳德拉(Satya Nadella)正式接任微软第三任CEO。\n那时的微软犹如一个迟暮的巨人，难以追逐时代的步伐，而纳德拉却一手导演了微软的伟大复兴。\n\n纳德拉不仅仅是转变了微软的商业策略，还改革了微软的企业文化。他一直致力于通过改变微软的思维方式改变其运作方式。\n到现在，微软市值已经达1.83万亿美元。\n\n此后的5年中，纳德拉带领微软重新找到了方向。\n微软裁撤了前CEO鲍尔默以72亿美元收购的诺基亚手机业务，宣布历史上最大规模的裁员，裁员人数占该公司全球12多万名员工总数的14%。\n这一切取舍，全是为了将开发重心放在云端服务上。\n在纳德拉的领导下，微软削减了Windows部门的预算，并且建立了一个庞大的云计算业务——Microsoft Azure。\n\n目前，微软的云平台Azure赢得了许多大型企业客户的青睐。\n我们办公生产力软件Office也逐渐成为一个云服务，它获得了超过2.14亿订阅用户，这些用户每年都要缴纳99美元的订阅费。\n在微软内部员工看来，公司的复兴，纳德拉对企业文化的改造功不可没！\n上任CEO留下的微软正处于严重内斗之中，高管争权，团队之间遇到问题相互推卸责任。\n在《刷新——重新发现商业与未来》一书中，纳德拉直言，「商业策略转型并非他作为微软CEO的第一要务，CEO是首席执行官，更是文化执行官。」\n\n他激励微软员工成为「无所不学」（learn-it-all）的人。\n从Windows到云，纳德拉改造微软战车，成就了微软万亿美元市值。\n微软46岁，归来仍是王者。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340031505,"gmtCreate":1617321307907,"gmtModify":1704698689434,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"industry revolution","listText":"industry revolution","text":"industry revolution","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/340031505","repostId":"357228638","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":354125869,"gmtCreate":1617153133451,"gmtModify":1704696459687,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"the sun also risesthe moonlight silvers again","listText":"the sun also risesthe moonlight silvers again","text":"the sun also risesthe moonlight silvers again","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/354125869","repostId":"1154547844","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154547844","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"秦朔朋友圈是由中国著名媒体人、财经观察家秦朔牵头创立的一个新媒体与专业服务品牌，包括微信公众号、微博、视频节目、音频节目等。内容聚焦于经济、金融和商业领域，关注重点为全球和中国财经商业热点、企业家精神、创新与发明创造、商业文明探索等。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"秦朔朋友圈","id":"60","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e"},"pubTimestamp":1617064468,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154547844?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-30 08:34","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"When April is sensitive every year, Hong Kong stocks face three major pressures","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154547844","media":"秦朔朋友圈","summary":"香港市场即将迎来4月初的复活节长假。根据个人经验，香港市场在“复活节”假期之后，往往会出现较大的波动，因此该月通常在我看来是一个“敏感月”，是一个尤其需要小心行事的月份。从香港4月的长假名称，也能看到4月有多令人摸不着北——先是耶稣受难日，然后又是复活节。究竟4月之后，是受难还是复活，不小心翼翼处理的话，真是很难判断。其次，和往年4月不同的是，2021年的4月增加了中概股的退市风波。","content":"<p>The Hong Kong market is about to usher in the long Easter holiday in early April. According to personal experience, after the \"Easter\" holiday, the Hong Kong market tends to fluctuate greatly, so this month is usually a \"sensitive month\" in my opinion, and it is a month that needs to be especially careful.</p><p>From the name of Hong Kong's long holiday in April, we can also see how puzzling April is-first Good Friday, then Easter. It's really hard to judge whether it will be crucifixion or resurrection after April if you don't handle it carefully.</p><p><b>Causes of sensitive months</b></p><p>There are several reasons why April is a sensitive month:</p><p>First, during the long Easter holiday, it is easy to accumulate a lot of news, but it is impossible to trade. Therefore, after the holiday, it may cause trading congestion in the short term, and it is often easy to form excessive stress market under the torrent of information. At that time, the market is likely to be too optimistic or too pessimistic, depending on the specific content of the information flow at that time.</p><p>Second, there is usually a saying in the Hong Kong market that \"five poor, six absolute and seven turnarounds\", that is, May and June are often months when Hong Kong stocks adjust or shrink transactions. In this case, if you use the thinking of relative performance, it is best to lighten up positions on rallies in April, or at least you should not be overly aggressive.</p><p>Third, from the perspective of economic logic, because the results of the previous year are usually announced in March and will not basically end until April, usually under the whitewashing of the performance of listed companies, the market trend will not be too bad. However, after mid-April, as the performance of listed companies has been basically disclosed, the performance whitewashing effect has gradually faded. At this time, the market will show its supposed trend again.</p><p>Looking through the WIND database, you will find that since 2008, looking at the monthly performance of the Hang Seng Index, April and May often show opposite trends, and the frequency of closing up in April is greater than the frequency of closing down. It's easy to understand when you think about it. Before the \"five poor\", large households can make a wave of pull-up actions first, and then go short with a backhand, harvesting the profits on both sides.</p><p>But in April 2021, will the Hang Seng Index close up again? The author feels not very optimistic. April 2021 is very different from usual, and here are all explained.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01bfd16d070851ad20bf3352a6a294c9\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The \"head and shoulders\" pattern cannot be ignored</b></p><p>First of all, from a technical point of view, the Hang Seng Index has formed a \"head and shoulders top\" and crossed the \"neckline\" last Tuesday (March 23). Many readers don't like to use technical indicators, especially the fundamentalist believers of \"value investing\", who are often even more disdainful of listening to technical analysis.</p><p>From my experience, fundamental analysis and technical analysis are indispensable. I am doing research on the theory and practice of alternative investment. Many specific alternative assets (such as stock index futures, commodity futures, gold, and even the recently popular Bitcoin, etc.) need to be dismantled by fundamental analysis methods-for example, when analyzing Bitcoin, we should not only look at the price trend of Bitcoin, but also analyze the security, liquidity, stability and acceptance of digital currency of bit network.</p><p>However, when specifically judging the price direction of the asset, it is still necessary to rely on technical analysis, especially when analyzing the market trend. Past personal experiences constantly remind me:<b>The more efficient the market and the more liquid the financial products are, the more efficient the analysis of technical indicators is</b>--The Hang Seng Index is such a product, so technical analysis can completely explain the behavior of the current investment group, and even has a certain forward-looking prediction effect.</p><p>Speaking of \"head and shoulders\", readers who are not interested in doing technical analysis don't have to delve into it, but at least they should know that once this pattern is confirmed, there is a high probability that the market outlook of the Hang Seng Index will undergo a substantial adjustment-if it is confirmed from the \"right shoulder\" If the position falls, the position where it may fall after adjustment will start from the falling position of the right shoulder, and the fall is the vertical distance from the top (head) to the neckline (the line connecting the two shoulders). From this perspective, the Hang Seng Index is likely to fall to the 25,700 ~ 26,000 range in the next step.</p><p>From a practical point of view, the head-and-shoulders pattern also means that even if Hong Kong stocks have rebounded recently, it is a good opportunity to lighten positions on rallies, rather than a good opportunity to build positions.</p><p>Why do Hong Kong stocks have head and shoulders? This question is not important for technical analysis, because the premise of technical analysis is that the price already contains all the information (efficient market hypothesis). Of course, if we dig deeper, we can dig up many reasons, but this is no longer the focus of this article.</p><p>By the way, although the overall technical trend of Hong Kong stocks has deteriorated, the author still does not recommend that you short Hong Kong stocks. Because there are many risk factors in short selling, it is not easy to make money, let alone something that ordinary investors can easily grasp. A while ago, Wall Street hedge funds were collectively short-squeezed, which is a good example.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df28ee4a6bd605e81928c8bcc2a42bde\" tg-width=\"839\" tg-height=\"579\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The crisis of Chinese concept stocks will also impact Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p>Secondly, unlike April in previous years, April 2021 has increased the delisting turmoil of Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>According to the news of Hong Kong Singularity Finance on March 27th, Chinese concept stocks listed in the United States were washed again last Friday (March 26th)-this is the third consecutive time in a week that the entire sector has suffered a heavy setback. Wherein,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>(BIDU.O) The intraday stock price once plummeted 14.9%, reaching a low of $174.05;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>(TME.N) plunged at most 19.8% to a full-day low of $16.31 that day, down 49.4% from the record high of $32.25 just set last Tuesday. Nearly half of the market value has been erased in just a few days.</p><p>Another affected stock<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>(IQ.O) once plummeted 27.2% to $14.6 during the session; And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">Who to learn from</a>(GSX.N) was also cut in half, with the stock price hitting a low of $29.4 (the level at the end of May 2020).</p><p>The culprit is the Foreign Holding Company Accountability Act (HFCA Act) passed by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The bill requires foreign listed companies to also submit all disclosed materials and information according to the audit requirements of the United States. If foreign companies fail to comply, they will be required to delist from American exchanges.</p><p>The SEC announced on March 24th that the above-mentioned bill also requires listed companies to disclose some additional sensitive information: including the percentage of shares controlled by the government of the host country, whether the government has control over the company's financial rights and interests, whether there are party members in the board of directors or operating executives of the listed company, and whether the company's articles of association are affected by the party constitution.</p><p>These rules are equivalent to implementing the Foreign Companies Accountability Act signed and implemented by former US President Trump in December 2020 (Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act).</p><p>The relevant provisions are ostensibly aimed at all foreign companies listed in the United States, but in fact they are mainly aimed at China.<b>Because China has not yet allowed Chinese companies to disclose audit papers to overseas audit institutions without restrictions, unless China and the United States can reach a new audit supervision cooperation agreement in the near future, many Chinese concept stocks listed in the United States may Face the risk of delisting from US exchanges.</b></p><p>You may expect that under the suppression of the United States, more Chinese concept stock companies will return to A-shares or go public in Hong Kong, China. However, the \"secondary listing\" of Chinese concept stocks in Hong Kong is based on listing in the United States. If forced to delist from the United States, it is still inconclusive how the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will handle these Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>However, if a Chinese concept stock company re-applies for listing in Hong Kong, China in the form of IPO, it will have to go through a lengthy listing process, which will not constitute an obvious benefit to Hong Kong stocks in the near future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92d1e37c4b2e38d3609030f76c73bf81\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Pressure of macro factors on Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p>Third, interest rate and currency issues. Another very special place in April 2021 is that the U.S. economy has shown obvious signs of recovery, the U.S. 10-year bond yield has repeatedly hit new highs, and the the US Dollar Index has also risen strongly. These two indicators are not good signs for investors outside the United States.</p><p>Since 2008, investors all over the world have long been accustomed to the excessively loose liquidity environment, and now they suddenly find that liquidity is shrinking spontaneously-which is tantamount to forcing major institutions to start demanding higher returns from various assets in the market. In particular, if the US Dollar Index confirms a strong rebound, it will force investors to consider withdrawing funds from emerging markets such as Hong Kong and flow to the United States, where the currency appreciation trend is obvious.</p><p>But what is more difficult to decide is that the fundamental factors so far do not support the strengthening of the US dollar-including the continued loose US monetary policy; The Fed's unprecedented broad-based quantitative easing measures; The ever-expanding U.S. fiscal deficit, etc., are soberly telling the market that it is necessary to continue to maintain the view on the depreciation of the US dollar. In this case, there is a divergence between the fundamentals and the actual price trend in the short term, which casts uncertainty on the judgment of asset prices in Hong Kong.</p><p>As for U.S. Treasury Bond interest rates, the trend of 10-year bond interest rates so far mainly reflects the market's forward-looking expectations, that is, in the medium term, U.S. monetary policy is likely to change. The market's expected time for the Fed's first rate hike in the future has been advanced from 2024 to early 2023.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the U.S. 10-year bond interest rate has steadily climbed above the 1.5% level before the outbreak of the epidemic in early 2020. Next, will it further rise to the 2.0% level at the end of 2019, and will this interest rate trend further drive Up the dollar? This will directly affect the direction of global investors' allocation of US dollar assets.</p><p>None of the above three factors is sensitive and important. Therefore, it is suggested in April that everyone needs to be more sensitive to market information.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When April is sensitive every year, Hong Kong stocks face three major pressures</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen April is sensitive every year, Hong Kong stocks face three major pressures\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/60\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">秦朔朋友圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-30 08:34</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Hong Kong market is about to usher in the long Easter holiday in early April. According to personal experience, after the \"Easter\" holiday, the Hong Kong market tends to fluctuate greatly, so this month is usually a \"sensitive month\" in my opinion, and it is a month that needs to be especially careful.</p><p>From the name of Hong Kong's long holiday in April, we can also see how puzzling April is-first Good Friday, then Easter. It's really hard to judge whether it will be crucifixion or resurrection after April if you don't handle it carefully.</p><p><b>Causes of sensitive months</b></p><p>There are several reasons why April is a sensitive month:</p><p>First, during the long Easter holiday, it is easy to accumulate a lot of news, but it is impossible to trade. Therefore, after the holiday, it may cause trading congestion in the short term, and it is often easy to form excessive stress market under the torrent of information. At that time, the market is likely to be too optimistic or too pessimistic, depending on the specific content of the information flow at that time.</p><p>Second, there is usually a saying in the Hong Kong market that \"five poor, six absolute and seven turnarounds\", that is, May and June are often months when Hong Kong stocks adjust or shrink transactions. In this case, if you use the thinking of relative performance, it is best to lighten up positions on rallies in April, or at least you should not be overly aggressive.</p><p>Third, from the perspective of economic logic, because the results of the previous year are usually announced in March and will not basically end until April, usually under the whitewashing of the performance of listed companies, the market trend will not be too bad. However, after mid-April, as the performance of listed companies has been basically disclosed, the performance whitewashing effect has gradually faded. At this time, the market will show its supposed trend again.</p><p>Looking through the WIND database, you will find that since 2008, looking at the monthly performance of the Hang Seng Index, April and May often show opposite trends, and the frequency of closing up in April is greater than the frequency of closing down. It's easy to understand when you think about it. Before the \"five poor\", large households can make a wave of pull-up actions first, and then go short with a backhand, harvesting the profits on both sides.</p><p>But in April 2021, will the Hang Seng Index close up again? The author feels not very optimistic. April 2021 is very different from usual, and here are all explained.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01bfd16d070851ad20bf3352a6a294c9\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The \"head and shoulders\" pattern cannot be ignored</b></p><p>First of all, from a technical point of view, the Hang Seng Index has formed a \"head and shoulders top\" and crossed the \"neckline\" last Tuesday (March 23). Many readers don't like to use technical indicators, especially the fundamentalist believers of \"value investing\", who are often even more disdainful of listening to technical analysis.</p><p>From my experience, fundamental analysis and technical analysis are indispensable. I am doing research on the theory and practice of alternative investment. Many specific alternative assets (such as stock index futures, commodity futures, gold, and even the recently popular Bitcoin, etc.) need to be dismantled by fundamental analysis methods-for example, when analyzing Bitcoin, we should not only look at the price trend of Bitcoin, but also analyze the security, liquidity, stability and acceptance of digital currency of bit network.</p><p>However, when specifically judging the price direction of the asset, it is still necessary to rely on technical analysis, especially when analyzing the market trend. Past personal experiences constantly remind me:<b>The more efficient the market and the more liquid the financial products are, the more efficient the analysis of technical indicators is</b>--The Hang Seng Index is such a product, so technical analysis can completely explain the behavior of the current investment group, and even has a certain forward-looking prediction effect.</p><p>Speaking of \"head and shoulders\", readers who are not interested in doing technical analysis don't have to delve into it, but at least they should know that once this pattern is confirmed, there is a high probability that the market outlook of the Hang Seng Index will undergo a substantial adjustment-if it is confirmed from the \"right shoulder\" If the position falls, the position where it may fall after adjustment will start from the falling position of the right shoulder, and the fall is the vertical distance from the top (head) to the neckline (the line connecting the two shoulders). From this perspective, the Hang Seng Index is likely to fall to the 25,700 ~ 26,000 range in the next step.</p><p>From a practical point of view, the head-and-shoulders pattern also means that even if Hong Kong stocks have rebounded recently, it is a good opportunity to lighten positions on rallies, rather than a good opportunity to build positions.</p><p>Why do Hong Kong stocks have head and shoulders? This question is not important for technical analysis, because the premise of technical analysis is that the price already contains all the information (efficient market hypothesis). Of course, if we dig deeper, we can dig up many reasons, but this is no longer the focus of this article.</p><p>By the way, although the overall technical trend of Hong Kong stocks has deteriorated, the author still does not recommend that you short Hong Kong stocks. Because there are many risk factors in short selling, it is not easy to make money, let alone something that ordinary investors can easily grasp. A while ago, Wall Street hedge funds were collectively short-squeezed, which is a good example.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df28ee4a6bd605e81928c8bcc2a42bde\" tg-width=\"839\" tg-height=\"579\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The crisis of Chinese concept stocks will also impact Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p>Secondly, unlike April in previous years, April 2021 has increased the delisting turmoil of Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>According to the news of Hong Kong Singularity Finance on March 27th, Chinese concept stocks listed in the United States were washed again last Friday (March 26th)-this is the third consecutive time in a week that the entire sector has suffered a heavy setback. Wherein,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>(BIDU.O) The intraday stock price once plummeted 14.9%, reaching a low of $174.05;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>(TME.N) plunged at most 19.8% to a full-day low of $16.31 that day, down 49.4% from the record high of $32.25 just set last Tuesday. Nearly half of the market value has been erased in just a few days.</p><p>Another affected stock<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>(IQ.O) once plummeted 27.2% to $14.6 during the session; And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">Who to learn from</a>(GSX.N) was also cut in half, with the stock price hitting a low of $29.4 (the level at the end of May 2020).</p><p>The culprit is the Foreign Holding Company Accountability Act (HFCA Act) passed by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The bill requires foreign listed companies to also submit all disclosed materials and information according to the audit requirements of the United States. If foreign companies fail to comply, they will be required to delist from American exchanges.</p><p>The SEC announced on March 24th that the above-mentioned bill also requires listed companies to disclose some additional sensitive information: including the percentage of shares controlled by the government of the host country, whether the government has control over the company's financial rights and interests, whether there are party members in the board of directors or operating executives of the listed company, and whether the company's articles of association are affected by the party constitution.</p><p>These rules are equivalent to implementing the Foreign Companies Accountability Act signed and implemented by former US President Trump in December 2020 (Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act).</p><p>The relevant provisions are ostensibly aimed at all foreign companies listed in the United States, but in fact they are mainly aimed at China.<b>Because China has not yet allowed Chinese companies to disclose audit papers to overseas audit institutions without restrictions, unless China and the United States can reach a new audit supervision cooperation agreement in the near future, many Chinese concept stocks listed in the United States may Face the risk of delisting from US exchanges.</b></p><p>You may expect that under the suppression of the United States, more Chinese concept stock companies will return to A-shares or go public in Hong Kong, China. However, the \"secondary listing\" of Chinese concept stocks in Hong Kong is based on listing in the United States. If forced to delist from the United States, it is still inconclusive how the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will handle these Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>However, if a Chinese concept stock company re-applies for listing in Hong Kong, China in the form of IPO, it will have to go through a lengthy listing process, which will not constitute an obvious benefit to Hong Kong stocks in the near future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92d1e37c4b2e38d3609030f76c73bf81\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Pressure of macro factors on Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p>Third, interest rate and currency issues. Another very special place in April 2021 is that the U.S. economy has shown obvious signs of recovery, the U.S. 10-year bond yield has repeatedly hit new highs, and the the US Dollar Index has also risen strongly. These two indicators are not good signs for investors outside the United States.</p><p>Since 2008, investors all over the world have long been accustomed to the excessively loose liquidity environment, and now they suddenly find that liquidity is shrinking spontaneously-which is tantamount to forcing major institutions to start demanding higher returns from various assets in the market. In particular, if the US Dollar Index confirms a strong rebound, it will force investors to consider withdrawing funds from emerging markets such as Hong Kong and flow to the United States, where the currency appreciation trend is obvious.</p><p>But what is more difficult to decide is that the fundamental factors so far do not support the strengthening of the US dollar-including the continued loose US monetary policy; The Fed's unprecedented broad-based quantitative easing measures; The ever-expanding U.S. fiscal deficit, etc., are soberly telling the market that it is necessary to continue to maintain the view on the depreciation of the US dollar. In this case, there is a divergence between the fundamentals and the actual price trend in the short term, which casts uncertainty on the judgment of asset prices in Hong Kong.</p><p>As for U.S. Treasury Bond interest rates, the trend of 10-year bond interest rates so far mainly reflects the market's forward-looking expectations, that is, in the medium term, U.S. monetary policy is likely to change. The market's expected time for the Fed's first rate hike in the future has been advanced from 2024 to early 2023.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the U.S. 10-year bond interest rate has steadily climbed above the 1.5% level before the outbreak of the epidemic in early 2020. Next, will it further rise to the 2.0% level at the end of 2019, and will this interest rate trend further drive Up the dollar? This will directly affect the direction of global investors' allocation of US dollar assets.</p><p>None of the above three factors is sensitive and important. Therefore, it is suggested in April that everyone needs to be more sensitive to market information.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSI":"恒生指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154547844","content_text":"香港市场即将迎来4月初的复活节长假。根据个人经验，香港市场在“复活节”假期之后，往往会出现较大的波动，因此该月通常在我看来是一个“敏感月”，是一个尤其需要小心行事的月份。\n从香港4月的长假名称，也能看到4月有多令人摸不着北——先是耶稣受难日，然后又是复活节。究竟4月之后，是受难还是复活，不小心翼翼处理的话，真是很难判断。\n敏感月成因\n说4月是敏感月，有几个原因：\n一是复活节长假，容易累积大量的消息，但却无法进行交易，因此在节后有可能会在短期内造成交易拥挤，往往容易形成信息洪流下的过度应激性行情。届时，市场很可能过于乐观，也可能过于悲观，具体还得看当时的信息流具体内容。\n二是香港市场通常有“五穷六绝七翻身”的说法，即5月和6月往往是港股调整或是成交萎缩的月份。在这种情况下，如果用相对表现的思维，4月最好是逢高减仓，至少是不应该过度进取。\n其三，从经济逻辑来看，因为通常3月开始公布上年度业绩，一直至4月才会基本上结束，通常在上市公司的业绩粉饰作用之下，市场走势不会太过恶劣。但4月中旬之后，随着上市公司的业绩基本披露完毕，业绩粉饰效果也逐步消退，这时候市场会再显本该有的走向。\n翻查WIND数据库就会发现，从2008年以来，看恒指的月度表现，4月与5月经常是呈现相反的走势，而且4月全月收涨的频率大于收跌的频率。想来也好理解，“五穷”之前，大户可以先来一波拉升的动作，然后才反手做空，两边收割收益。\n但是2021年的4月，恒指是否会再现收涨？笔者却觉得不太乐观。2021年的4月和往常有很大的不同，这里一一说明。\n\n“头肩顶”形态不容忽视\n首先是从技术上看，恒指已经形成“头肩顶”，并且在上周二（3月23日）下穿了“颈线”。很多读者不喜欢用技术指标，特别是“价值投资”的原教旨信徒，往往更不屑于听从技术分析。\n就本人的经验来说，基本面分析与技术面分析是缺一不可的。本人做的是另类投资理论与实践研究，很多具体的另类资产（比如股指期货、商品期货、黄金、甚至近期流行的比特币等）需要用基本面分析方法来拆解——比如在分析比特币的时候，不能只看比特币的价格走势，还要分析比特网络的安全性、流动性、稳定性以及数字货币被接受的程度等。\n但在具体判断该资产的价格方向时，还是得需要借助技术分析，在分析市场走向时尤其如此。过往亲身经历的案例不断提醒我：越是有效的市场，越是流动性强的金融产品，其技术指标分析就越是有效——恒指正是这样的一个产品，所以用技术分析完全可以解释当下投资群体的行为，甚至有一定的前瞻预测作用。\n说回“头肩顶”，没有兴趣做技术分析的读者可以不必深究，但至少要知道，一旦确认了这个形态，恒指的后市走向大概率会出现大幅调整——如果确认从“右肩”位置下跌，其调整后可能跌落的位置，会是从右肩下跌位置开始算起，幅跌是顶部（头部）到颈线（连接两个肩膀的线）的垂直距离。从这个角度来说，恒指下一步大概率要跌至25700～26000区间。\n就实践角度来说，头肩顶的形态也意味着，即便近期港股有所反弹，也是逢高减仓的好机会，而不是建仓的良机。\n港股为什么会出现头肩顶？这个问题对于技术分析来说并不重要，因为技术分析的前提就是价格已经包含了所有的信息（有效市场假说）。当然，如果深究下去，我们可以挖出很多原因，但这已经不是本文的重点了。\n顺便提一句，虽然港股整体技术走势转差，但笔者还是不建议大家做空港股。因为做空有诸多风险因素，并不容易赚钱，更不是普通投资者可以轻易掌握的。前阵子华尔街对冲基金被集体轧空仓，就是一个很好的例子。\n\n中概股危机也将冲击港股\n其次，和往年4月不同的是，2021年的4月增加了中概股的退市风波。\n根据香港奇点财经3月27日的消息，在美国上市的中国概念股于上周五（3月26日）再遭洗仓——这已是一周内连续第三次整个板块出现重挫。其中，百度（BIDU.O）盘中股价一度急泻14.9%，最低见174.05美元；腾讯音乐（TME.N）当天最多重挫19.8%至全日低位16.31美元，较上周二刚刚创下的历史新高32.25美元滑落49.4%，短短数日市值已经被抹去近半。\n另一受灾股爱奇艺（IQ.O）盘中一度急降27.2%至14.6美元；而跟谁学（GSX.N）也被腰斩，股价最低触及29.4美元（2020年5月底的水平）。\n罪魁祸首是美国证监会（SEC）通过的《外国控股公司责任法案》（HFCA Act）。该法案要求外国上市公司也要根据美国的审计要求，提交所有该披露的材料和信息，如果外国公司不遵守，将被要求从美国交易所退市。\nSEC3月24日公布，上述法案还要求上市公司额外披露一些敏感信息：包括所在国政府控制的股份百分比、政府是否对公司的财务权益有控制权、上市公司董事会或经营高管中是否有党员、公司章程是否受党章影响等。\n这些规则相当于执行了美前任总统特朗普在2020年12月签署落实的《外国公司问责法案（Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act）》。\n有关条款，表面上是针对所有在美国挂牌的外国公司，但实际上主要针对中国。因为中国目前尚未允许中国企业将审计底稿不受限制地向境外审计机构予以披露，因此除非中美双方能在近期达成新的审计监管合作协议，否则在美上市的众多中概股，均可能将面临美国交易所除牌的风险。\n大家可能会憧憬，在美国的打压之下，将有更多中概股公司回A股或去中国香港上市，但是香港的中概股“第二上市”是以在美国上市为前提的，如果被迫从美国退市，港交所会如何处理这些中概股，目前还未见定论。\n而如果中概股公司以IPO形式重新申请在中国香港上市，则要走冗长的上市流程，这对近期港股并不构成明显的利好。\n\n宏观因素对港股的压力\n其三，利率与货币问题。2021年4月还有一个非常特殊的地方，就是美国的经济出现较明显的复苏迹象，美国10年期债券收益率屡创新高，美元指数也强劲上扬。而这两个指标，对于美国以外的投资者来说，都不是好现象。\n自2008年以来，全球的投资者早已习惯了过度宽松的流动性环境，现在突然发现流动性在自发地收缩——这无异于逼迫各大机构开始向市场上的各种资产索取更高的收益。特别是美元指数如果确认出现强劲反弹，更会逼迫投资者考虑，将资金从香港等新兴市场撤出，流向货币升值趋势明显的美国。\n但是比较难以决断的是，迄今为止的基本面因素都不支持美元走强——包括持续宽松的美国货币政策；美联储前所未有的广泛量化宽松措施；不断扩大的美国财政赤字等，这些都在清醒地告诉巿场，有必要继续维持对美元贬值的看法。在这种情况下，基本面和短期内的实际价格走势出现了背离，这为判断香港的资产价格投下了不确定性。\n至于美国国债利率，迄今为止的10年债息走势，主要体现出市场前瞻性的预期，即认为中期而言，美国的货币政策很有可能会出现变化。市场对美联储未来首次加息的预期时间点，已经从2024年，提前至2023年初。\n今年以来，美国10年债息已经稳稳地攀升至2020年初疫情暴发前1.5%水平上方，接下来，它是否会进一步上涨至2019年底的2.0%水平，以及，这种利率走势是否会进一步驱升美元升势？这会直接关系到全球投资者对于美元资产配置的方向。\n上述三个因素，没有一个不是敏感而重要的，因此，4月份建议大家需要更为敏感地应对市场信息。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSTECH":0.9,"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355448012,"gmtCreate":1617099471236,"gmtModify":1704801955894,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"infrastructure improvement hot","listText":"infrastructure improvement hot","text":"infrastructure improvement hot","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/355448012","repostId":"355053283","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":355053283,"gmtCreate":1617017572235,"gmtModify":1704800870033,"author":{"id":"3502860692623653","authorId":"3502860692623653","name":"爱上趋势股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17f4521614b0cae62aff9fa7fa80fa77","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3502860692623653","idStr":"3502860692623653"},"themes":[],"title":"美國“洪水四溢”，大基建勢在必行！","htmlText":"3月27日，中國和伊朗正式簽署一項爲期25年的協議，包括政治、戰略和經濟合作。 伊朗媒體報道，協議中重要的三條： 中國將增加對伊朗的基礎設施投資，提升伊朗整體國力； 中伊之間的石油和貿易往來，將使用人民幣和數字人民幣結算，避開美元； 伊朗的導彈，將使用“北斗”導航系統進行制導。 加上不久前的中俄外長會晤，這意味着中俄伊形成了亞歐大陸重要的“鐵三角”。此外，王部長還訪問了沙特、土耳其、伊朗、阿聯酋、巴林、阿曼六個中東國家，均得到了對中國的支持立場。 中東諸國對中國的支持，具有跨時代的重要意義，今天我們只講一些涉及金融的： 阿拉斯加會談打破了我們對美國最後的一絲希望：“我們把你們（美國）想的太好了” 我國外交由守轉攻，打破美國封鎖，給搖擺派、投降派、騎牆派以打擊，尤其是傲嬌的歐洲； 告訴美國佬，你們的通脹我們不吃了，愛印多少印多少吧！我要真的開始推動人民幣國際化了，先是俄羅斯、伊朗，剩下的再一個個來； 美國通脹預期飆升。 網上流傳一個段子： 一羣【印度人】開着【臺灣人】從【日本人】租來的【美國人】控股的船，掛着【巴拿馬人】的國旗，堵住了【埃及人】的蘇伊士運河，把【美國人】用來威脅【中國人】和【伊朗人】簽約的航母戰鬥羣堵在了地中海”——《到底誰是臥底》? 國運來了擋不住，說回股市，中伊這個協定，直接利好的三個板塊： 1、新疆 新疆以後對於我國的重要性越來越強；除了石油從這裏進來外，大量的高鐵、基建，還承載着我國的對外貿易。這也是爲啥，美國最近一直在新疆搞事情。 上週四，我在空間站裏提到的是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600540\">$新賽股份(600540)$</a> 。今天，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002941\">$新疆交建(002941)</a>","listText":"3月27日，中國和伊朗正式簽署一項爲期25年的協議，包括政治、戰略和經濟合作。 伊朗媒體報道，協議中重要的三條： 中國將增加對伊朗的基礎設施投資，提升伊朗整體國力； 中伊之間的石油和貿易往來，將使用人民幣和數字人民幣結算，避開美元； 伊朗的導彈，將使用“北斗”導航系統進行制導。 加上不久前的中俄外長會晤，這意味着中俄伊形成了亞歐大陸重要的“鐵三角”。此外，王部長還訪問了沙特、土耳其、伊朗、阿聯酋、巴林、阿曼六個中東國家，均得到了對中國的支持立場。 中東諸國對中國的支持，具有跨時代的重要意義，今天我們只講一些涉及金融的： 阿拉斯加會談打破了我們對美國最後的一絲希望：“我們把你們（美國）想的太好了” 我國外交由守轉攻，打破美國封鎖，給搖擺派、投降派、騎牆派以打擊，尤其是傲嬌的歐洲； 告訴美國佬，你們的通脹我們不吃了，愛印多少印多少吧！我要真的開始推動人民幣國際化了，先是俄羅斯、伊朗，剩下的再一個個來； 美國通脹預期飆升。 網上流傳一個段子： 一羣【印度人】開着【臺灣人】從【日本人】租來的【美國人】控股的船，掛着【巴拿馬人】的國旗，堵住了【埃及人】的蘇伊士運河，把【美國人】用來威脅【中國人】和【伊朗人】簽約的航母戰鬥羣堵在了地中海”——《到底誰是臥底》? 國運來了擋不住，說回股市，中伊這個協定，直接利好的三個板塊： 1、新疆 新疆以後對於我國的重要性越來越強；除了石油從這裏進來外，大量的高鐵、基建，還承載着我國的對外貿易。這也是爲啥，美國最近一直在新疆搞事情。 上週四，我在空間站裏提到的是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600540\">$新賽股份(600540)$</a> 。今天，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002941\">$新疆交建(002941)</a>","text":"3月27日，中國和伊朗正式簽署一項爲期25年的協議，包括政治、戰略和經濟合作。 伊朗媒體報道，協議中重要的三條： 中國將增加對伊朗的基礎設施投資，提升伊朗整體國力； 中伊之間的石油和貿易往來，將使用人民幣和數字人民幣結算，避開美元； 伊朗的導彈，將使用“北斗”導航系統進行制導。 加上不久前的中俄外長會晤，這意味着中俄伊形成了亞歐大陸重要的“鐵三角”。此外，王部長還訪問了沙特、土耳其、伊朗、阿聯酋、巴林、阿曼六個中東國家，均得到了對中國的支持立場。 中東諸國對中國的支持，具有跨時代的重要意義，今天我們只講一些涉及金融的： 阿拉斯加會談打破了我們對美國最後的一絲希望：“我們把你們（美國）想的太好了” 我國外交由守轉攻，打破美國封鎖，給搖擺派、投降派、騎牆派以打擊，尤其是傲嬌的歐洲； 告訴美國佬，你們的通脹我們不吃了，愛印多少印多少吧！我要真的開始推動人民幣國際化了，先是俄羅斯、伊朗，剩下的再一個個來； 美國通脹預期飆升。 網上流傳一個段子： 一羣【印度人】開着【臺灣人】從【日本人】租來的【美國人】控股的船，掛着【巴拿馬人】的國旗，堵住了【埃及人】的蘇伊士運河，把【美國人】用來威脅【中國人】和【伊朗人】簽約的航母戰鬥羣堵在了地中海”——《到底誰是臥底》? 國運來了擋不住，說回股市，中伊這個協定，直接利好的三個板塊： 1、新疆 新疆以後對於我國的重要性越來越強；除了石油從這裏進來外，大量的高鐵、基建，還承載着我國的對外貿易。這也是爲啥，美國最近一直在新疆搞事情。 上週四，我在空間站裏提到的是$新賽股份(600540)$ 。今天，$新疆交建(002941)","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59094069d0ed0614d3ca11b3da3303cc","width":"639","height":"355"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7de5d44e70aa80c73d0620ee1f414374","width":"581","height":"198"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01bdd6c7832cc18def7e66ab34030f7b","width":"904","height":"403"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/355053283","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":356720174,"gmtCreate":1616818042998,"gmtModify":1704799384273,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hope so","listText":"hope so","text":"hope so","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/356720174","repostId":"1190278634","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190278634","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616747205,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190278634?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-26 16:26","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Market Overview: Hong Kong and A are all rising! BlackRock is bullish on the Chinese market, is the bull coming back?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190278634","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"要闻1、央行今日开展100亿元逆回购操作，因今日有100亿元逆回购到期，当日实现零投放零回笼。本周，央行进行500亿元逆回购操作，因本周有500亿元逆回购到期，本周实现零投放零回笼。2、据中证报报道，","content":"<p><b>Highlights</b></p><p>1. The central bank launched a 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation today. Because 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase expired today, zero investment and zero withdrawal were achieved on that day. This week, the central bank conducted a 50 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation. Because 50 billion yuan reverse repurchase expired this week, it achieved zero investment and zero withdrawal this week.</p><p>2. According to China Securities Journal,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>The Group believes that there is a good opportunity to enter the Chinese market in the near future.</b>In terms of stocks, China's share in the global index is still low, and its share in the MSCI \"All Countries World Index\" (including offshore stocks) is still low. First of all, China will shift the focus of economic development to improving the quality of economic growth, which will help cultivate more high-quality companies in the long run. Secondly, China has great ambitions in achieving climate goals, and many related industries are expected to benefit from climate policies.</p><p>3、<b>The pro-cyclical sector of the \"national team\" stock selection is my favorite.</b>According to the China Securities Journal, as the 2020 annual reports of listed companies are gradually released, the shareholdings of \"national teams\" such as social security funds have surfaced. Wind data shows that as of press time on March 25th, the social security fund has appeared in the list of the top ten shareholders of tradable shares in the annual reports of 83 listed companies, continuing its preference for pro-cyclical sectors such as chemicals and non-ferrous metals in style. The heavy holdings of China Securities Finance Co., Ltd., Central Huijin Asset Management Co., Ltd. and Central Huijin Investment Co., Ltd. are mostly concentrated in financial, energy and other sectors.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stocks</b></p><p>The three major Hong Kong stock indexes closed up across the board, large technology stocks were active, and theme sectors generally rose. As of the close, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.57% to 28,336 points, the State Index rose 2.06% to 10,966 points, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 2.33% to 8,129 points.</p><p>On the disk, Xiaomi, a large technology stock, once rose 10% and closed up 6.28% during the session, while Meituan rose 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Rose 2.3%, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Fell more than 2%; Property management stocks broke out again,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02669\">China Overseas Property</a>Soared by more than 25%, tobacco concept stocks rebounded strongly, wind power stocks, automobile stocks, dairy products, photovoltaic stocks, port and shipping stocks, catering stocks, etc. generally rose; Sporting goods stocks maintained yesterday's strong market, with Anta rising nearly 6% and more than 15% on the 2nd; However, a few sectors of SaaS stocks and online education stocks fell.</p><p>Today, the net inflow of funds going south was 7.008 billion Hong Kong dollars, and the turnover of the market did not enlarge, with a turnover of 183.9 billion Hong Kong dollars throughout the day.</p><p>Xiaomi rose 6.28%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">Great Wall Motors</a>Up 10.38%, market news said that Xiaomi is negotiating to use<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>The factory makes electric vehicles, and the partnership could be announced as soon as next week. In response to the news that \"Xiaomi is negotiating with Great Wall Motors to produce electric vehicles and plans to announce cooperation as soon as next week\", Xu Jieyun, former general manager of Xiaomi Group's public relations department, said<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">Weibo</a>Said that this is \"completely bullshit fake news\".</p><p>Meitu fell 7.43%. Online advertising is still Meitu's main source of income, but its performance is relatively weak. In 2020,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01357\">Meitu Corporation</a>Online advertising revenue was 680 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%, accounting for 57% of total revenue. As of December 2020, the total number of monthly active users reached 261 million, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%. Meitu said most of the decline was due to a decline in monthly active users in India, as several apps were banned by the Indian government. Excluding such effects, monthly active users remained relatively stable year-on-year.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">Bilibili-SW</a></b><b>Black disk:</b>Bilibili-SW was quoted at HK $760 in the black market, down 5.94% from the issue price. Based on the closing price of US stocks at US $96.65 on Thursday, the equivalent price of Hong Kong stocks is about HK $743, which is an 8.75% discount to the Hong Kong stock price of HK $808.</p><p><b>A Shares</b></p><p>On Friday, the three major A-share stock indexes collectively opened higher, and the market fluctuated upward in early trading. The Shanghai Composite Index recovered 3,400 points, and the ChiNext Index rose by more than 3%; In the afternoon, the gains of the two cities further expanded, and the group stocks on the disk picked up significantly. The concept of carbon neutrality reappeared at a large-scale daily limit, and the trading volume increased slightly during the rebound. In addition, the Shanghai Composite Index ended its weekly negative trend.</p><p>As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.63% to 3418.33 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.6% to 13769.68 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.37% to 2745.4 points. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 747.96 billion yuan, a slight increase from yesterday. 93 stocks in the two cities had their daily limit, and 7 stocks had their daily limit (including ST). The actual net inflow of northbound funds was 6.43 billion yuan, a net inflow for three consecutive days.</p><p>In terms of industry sectors, textiles and clothing, public utilities, glass ceramics, and civil aviation airports in the power industry were among the top gainers, while brokerage trusts, culture media, telecommunications operations, coal mining, and precious metals performed sluggishly.</p><p><b>US stocks</b></p><p>During the pre-market session on Friday, the futures of the three major U.S. stock indexes rose slightly. As of 16:10 Beijing time, Dow futures rose 0.34%, Nasdaq futures rose 0.43%, and S&P 500 futures rose 0.38%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141b838424a50c66a337afe23e431c8a\" tg-width=\"356\" tg-height=\"155\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>European stocks</b></p><p>Major European indexes rose, with the European Stoxx 50 index rising 0.79%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index rose 0.83%, and the German DAX30 index rose 0.87%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc4f84ffae054964c6fb65216d98402d\" tg-width=\"791\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil futures rose during the day, and U.S. and Brent oil futures rose sharply during the day. As of 16:10 Beijing time, the WTI crude oil May futures contract rose 2.05% to $59.76 per barrel. The Brent oil cash May futures contract rose 1.73% to $63.02 per barrel during the day.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12e500790fab5ff60b574d9a7b76e68a\" tg-width=\"357\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>Gold futures rose slightly during the day. As of 16:10 Beijing time, the April gold futures contract rose 0.03% during the day to US $1,725.7 per ounce.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0cd2029f85d1409438a27368ad9485f\" tg-width=\"360\" tg-height=\"141\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Market Overview: Hong Kong and A are all rising! BlackRock is bullish on the Chinese market, is the bull coming back?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarket Overview: Hong Kong and A are all rising! BlackRock is bullish on the Chinese market, is the bull coming back?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-26 16:26</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Highlights</b></p><p>1. The central bank launched a 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation today. Because 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase expired today, zero investment and zero withdrawal were achieved on that day. This week, the central bank conducted a 50 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation. Because 50 billion yuan reverse repurchase expired this week, it achieved zero investment and zero withdrawal this week.</p><p>2. According to China Securities Journal,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>The Group believes that there is a good opportunity to enter the Chinese market in the near future.</b>In terms of stocks, China's share in the global index is still low, and its share in the MSCI \"All Countries World Index\" (including offshore stocks) is still low. First of all, China will shift the focus of economic development to improving the quality of economic growth, which will help cultivate more high-quality companies in the long run. Secondly, China has great ambitions in achieving climate goals, and many related industries are expected to benefit from climate policies.</p><p>3、<b>The pro-cyclical sector of the \"national team\" stock selection is my favorite.</b>According to the China Securities Journal, as the 2020 annual reports of listed companies are gradually released, the shareholdings of \"national teams\" such as social security funds have surfaced. Wind data shows that as of press time on March 25th, the social security fund has appeared in the list of the top ten shareholders of tradable shares in the annual reports of 83 listed companies, continuing its preference for pro-cyclical sectors such as chemicals and non-ferrous metals in style. The heavy holdings of China Securities Finance Co., Ltd., Central Huijin Asset Management Co., Ltd. and Central Huijin Investment Co., Ltd. are mostly concentrated in financial, energy and other sectors.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stocks</b></p><p>The three major Hong Kong stock indexes closed up across the board, large technology stocks were active, and theme sectors generally rose. As of the close, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.57% to 28,336 points, the State Index rose 2.06% to 10,966 points, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 2.33% to 8,129 points.</p><p>On the disk, Xiaomi, a large technology stock, once rose 10% and closed up 6.28% during the session, while Meituan rose 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Rose 2.3%, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Fell more than 2%; Property management stocks broke out again,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02669\">China Overseas Property</a>Soared by more than 25%, tobacco concept stocks rebounded strongly, wind power stocks, automobile stocks, dairy products, photovoltaic stocks, port and shipping stocks, catering stocks, etc. generally rose; Sporting goods stocks maintained yesterday's strong market, with Anta rising nearly 6% and more than 15% on the 2nd; However, a few sectors of SaaS stocks and online education stocks fell.</p><p>Today, the net inflow of funds going south was 7.008 billion Hong Kong dollars, and the turnover of the market did not enlarge, with a turnover of 183.9 billion Hong Kong dollars throughout the day.</p><p>Xiaomi rose 6.28%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">Great Wall Motors</a>Up 10.38%, market news said that Xiaomi is negotiating to use<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>The factory makes electric vehicles, and the partnership could be announced as soon as next week. In response to the news that \"Xiaomi is negotiating with Great Wall Motors to produce electric vehicles and plans to announce cooperation as soon as next week\", Xu Jieyun, former general manager of Xiaomi Group's public relations department, said<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">Weibo</a>Said that this is \"completely bullshit fake news\".</p><p>Meitu fell 7.43%. Online advertising is still Meitu's main source of income, but its performance is relatively weak. In 2020,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01357\">Meitu Corporation</a>Online advertising revenue was 680 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%, accounting for 57% of total revenue. As of December 2020, the total number of monthly active users reached 261 million, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%. Meitu said most of the decline was due to a decline in monthly active users in India, as several apps were banned by the Indian government. Excluding such effects, monthly active users remained relatively stable year-on-year.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">Bilibili-SW</a></b><b>Black disk:</b>Bilibili-SW was quoted at HK $760 in the black market, down 5.94% from the issue price. Based on the closing price of US stocks at US $96.65 on Thursday, the equivalent price of Hong Kong stocks is about HK $743, which is an 8.75% discount to the Hong Kong stock price of HK $808.</p><p><b>A Shares</b></p><p>On Friday, the three major A-share stock indexes collectively opened higher, and the market fluctuated upward in early trading. The Shanghai Composite Index recovered 3,400 points, and the ChiNext Index rose by more than 3%; In the afternoon, the gains of the two cities further expanded, and the group stocks on the disk picked up significantly. The concept of carbon neutrality reappeared at a large-scale daily limit, and the trading volume increased slightly during the rebound. In addition, the Shanghai Composite Index ended its weekly negative trend.</p><p>As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.63% to 3418.33 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.6% to 13769.68 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.37% to 2745.4 points. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 747.96 billion yuan, a slight increase from yesterday. 93 stocks in the two cities had their daily limit, and 7 stocks had their daily limit (including ST). The actual net inflow of northbound funds was 6.43 billion yuan, a net inflow for three consecutive days.</p><p>In terms of industry sectors, textiles and clothing, public utilities, glass ceramics, and civil aviation airports in the power industry were among the top gainers, while brokerage trusts, culture media, telecommunications operations, coal mining, and precious metals performed sluggishly.</p><p><b>US stocks</b></p><p>During the pre-market session on Friday, the futures of the three major U.S. stock indexes rose slightly. As of 16:10 Beijing time, Dow futures rose 0.34%, Nasdaq futures rose 0.43%, and S&P 500 futures rose 0.38%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141b838424a50c66a337afe23e431c8a\" tg-width=\"356\" tg-height=\"155\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>European stocks</b></p><p>Major European indexes rose, with the European Stoxx 50 index rising 0.79%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index rose 0.83%, and the German DAX30 index rose 0.87%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc4f84ffae054964c6fb65216d98402d\" tg-width=\"791\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil futures rose during the day, and U.S. and Brent oil futures rose sharply during the day. As of 16:10 Beijing time, the WTI crude oil May futures contract rose 2.05% to $59.76 per barrel. The Brent oil cash May futures contract rose 1.73% to $63.02 per barrel during the day.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12e500790fab5ff60b574d9a7b76e68a\" tg-width=\"357\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>Gold futures rose slightly during the day. As of 16:10 Beijing time, the April gold futures contract rose 0.03% during the day to US $1,725.7 per ounce.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0cd2029f85d1409438a27368ad9485f\" tg-width=\"360\" tg-height=\"141\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d11890cd6ccd454a56d86737fd3353","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","HSI":"恒生指数","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190278634","content_text":"要闻1、央行今日开展100亿元逆回购操作，因今日有100亿元逆回购到期，当日实现零投放零回笼。本周，央行进行500亿元逆回购操作，因本周有500亿元逆回购到期，本周实现零投放零回笼。2、据中证报报道，贝莱德集团认为近期中国市场入市良机已现。股票方面，中国在全球指数内所占比重仍偏低，在MSCI“所有国家世界指数”（包括离岸股票）占比仍然较低。首先，中国将经济发展重心转向提升经济增长质量，长远来说有利于培育更多优质公司。其次，中国在实现气候目标方面有远大抱负，许多相关行业有望受益于气候政策。3、“国家队”选股顺周期板块是心头好。据中证报报道，随着上市公司2020年年报渐次出炉，社保基金等“国家队”持股情况浮出水面。Wind数据显示，截至3月25日发稿时，社保基金已出现在83家上市公司年报前十大流通股股东名单中，在风格上延续了对化工、有色金属等顺周期板块的偏好。中国证券金融股份有限公司、中央汇金资产管理有限责任公司和中央汇金投资有限责任公司重仓股则多集中在金融、能源等板块。港股港股三大指数全线收涨，大型科技股表现活跃，题材板块普涨。截至收盘，恒指涨1.57%报28336点，国指涨2.06%报10966点，恒生科技指数涨2.33%报8129点。盘面上，大型科技股小米盘中一度大涨10%收涨6.28%，美团涨5%，腾讯涨2.3%，惟阿里巴巴跌超2%；物管股再度爆发，中海物业飙涨超25%，烟草概念股强势反弹，风电股、汽车股、乳制品、光伏股、港口及航运股、餐饮股等普遍上涨；体育用品股维持昨日强势行情，安踏涨近6%，2日涨超15%；惟SaaS股、在线教育股少数板块走低。今日南下资金净流入70.08亿港元，大市成交额并未有所放大，全天成交1839亿港元。小米涨6.28%，长城汽车涨10.38%，市场消息称，小米正在商谈使用长城汽车的工厂生产电动汽车，最快可能下周宣布合作关系。针对“小米正与长城汽车谈判生产电动汽车，计划最快下周宣布合作”的消息，前小米集团公关部总经理徐洁云在微博表示，这是“完全扯淡的假新闻”。美图跌7.43%，在线广告仍是美图的主要收入来源，但表现较为疲软。2020年，美图公司在线广告收入为6.8亿元，同比下降9.5%，占总收入百分比为57%。截至2020年12月，月活跃用户总数达2.61亿，同比下降7.6%。美图表示，绝大部分下降是由于印度的月活跃用户下降所致，因为若干应用被印度政府禁止。撇除此类影响，月活跃用户同比保持相对稳定。哔哩哔哩-SW 暗盘：哔哩哔哩-SW暗盘报760港元，较发行价跌5.94%。按照周四美股的收盘价96.65美元计算，折合港股价格约为743港元，较港股808港元的定价折价8.75%。A股周五，A股三大股指集体高开，早盘市场震荡上行，沪指收复3400点，创业板指涨逾3%；午后两市涨幅进一步扩大，盘面上抱团股明显回暖，碳中和概念再现大面积涨停，反弹中成交量略有增长。另外，沪指终结了周线连阴的走势。截至收盘，沪指涨1.63%，报3418.33点，深成指涨2.6%，报13769.68点，创业板指涨3.37%，报2745.4点。沪深两市成交额7479.6亿元，较昨日小幅放大。两市93股涨停，7股跌停（含ST）。 北上资金实际净流入64.3亿元，连续3日净流入。行业板块方面，电力行业纺织服装、公用事业、玻璃陶瓷、民航机场涨幅靠前，券商信托文化传媒、电信运营、煤炭采选、贵金属等表现低迷。美股周五盘前时段，美股三大指数期货微涨。截至北京时间16:10，道指期货涨0.34%，纳指期货涨0.43%，标普500指数期货涨0.38%。欧股欧洲主要指数走高，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.79%，英国富时100指数涨0.83%，德国DAX30指数涨0.87%。原油原油期货日内走高，美、布油期货日内大涨。截至北京时间16:10，WTI原油5月期货合约日内涨2.05%报59.76美元/桶。布油现金5月期货合约日内涨1.73%报63.02美元/桶。黄金黄金期货日内微涨，截北京时间16:10，黄金4月期货合约日内涨0.03%，报1725.7美元/盎司。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":947,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":356767545,"gmtCreate":1616817984087,"gmtModify":1704799382977,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hard to say&nbsp;far away to goahead","listText":"hard to say&nbsp;far away to goahead","text":"hard to say far away to goahead","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/356767545","repostId":"1133889321","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133889321","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616764874,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133889321?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-26 21:21","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Is the Turkish crisis representative, and are emerging markets really dangerous?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133889321","media":"轩言全球宏观","summary":"近期包括土耳其在内的三个新兴经济体央行采取了加息措施。","content":"<p><b>In response to domestic inflation and currency depreciation pressure, the central banks of three emerging economies, including Türkiye, have recently taken rate hike measures.</b>On March 18, the Brazilian Central Bank announced its first rate hike in six years, raising the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to 2.75%, and said it would rate hike the same amount again at the May meeting.</p><p>On March 19, the Central Bank of Turkey announced \"early action\" and raised the benchmark interest rate by 200 basis points to 19%, twice the market expectation, in response to inflation close to 16% and the depreciation of the lira; On March 20, the Central Bank of Russia announced a rate hike of 25 basis points to 4.5%, which was the first time that Russia had raised its key interest rate since 2018. The Central Bank of Russia stated that the balance of risk had shifted to the risk of rising inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/557a2ff485f462b461cacd8cb79db94f\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In response to the country's long-standing high inflation and recent increasing inflationary pressures, Türkiye has made four sharp rate hike in the past two years.</b>Different from other emerging economies, Turkey's CPI year-on-year growth rate has continued to be in double digits for most periods since 2017. Starting from June 2020, as global commodity prices bottomed out and rebounded rapidly, Turkey's DPPI year-on-year The growth rate has begun to rise, rising from the bottom level of 5.5% to 27.1%. Starting from November 2020, Turkey's CPI year-on-year growth rate has also risen from 11.9% to 15.6% in February 2021.</p><p>In response to domestic inflation, the Turkish Central Bank has conducted four consecutive rate hike since September 2020, on September 25, November 20, December 25, 2020 and March 19, 2021.<b>Rate hike ranges are 200BP, 475BP, 200BP and 200BP respectively. The capital market generally recognizes the rate hike measures of the Turkish central bank.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f0d3b2697724be0df1c5ec754988e63\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The Turkish president's removal of the central bank governor and appointment of a new candidate to support the low interest rate policy have dampened overseas investors' confidence in the Turkish capital market, accelerating the outflow of foreign capital, and killing Turkish stocks, foreign exchange and bonds.</b>On the evening of 19th, Turkish President Erdogan unexpectedly dismissed Naci Agbal, the governor of the Turkish central bank who had only been in office for four months. This is the third time that Erdogan has replaced the governor of the central bank in the past two years. The reason for his dismissal lies precisely in Erdogan's dissatisfaction with his rate hike measures. Erdogan believes that rate hike is the cause of inflation and demands that interest rates be kept low to stimulate economic growth.</p><p>According to the presidential decree, the position of central bank governor will be taken over by Sahap Kavcioglu, who has been criticizing the central bank's rate hike measures, which means that the Turkish central bank is likely to re-adopt the low interest rate policy and give up controlling inflation and saving the exchange rate. In view of the fact that it is difficult for overseas investors to agree with its policy measures, the loss of confidence in the central bank's credibility has accelerated the outflow of capital from the Turkish market, and made Turkey face the situation of \"three kills of stocks, bonds and foreign exchange\".</p><p>On March 22nd, Turkey's long-term sovereign bonds denominated in US dollars recorded a record one-day decline. The yield of 10-year Treasury Bond rose by 4.5% to 18.0%, the benchmark stock index Istanbul 100 index fell by 9.8%, and the stock market fused twice for two consecutive days. The Turkish lira once plunged 17% during the session, and finally depreciated by 7.5% that day. On March 23rd, the turmoil in the Turkish capital market continued.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dc658687f25b0186217e81807c995ff\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Stronger the US Dollar Index and rising U.S. bond yields were among the background factors for Turkish rate hike in March.</b>Combined with the synchronous rate hike of other countries, the strengthening of the US Dollar Index and the rapid rise of U.S. bond yields, as well as the resulting turmoil in the global capital market and changes in capital flows, may prompt some funds to withdraw from emerging markets, causing Russian, Brazilian and Turkish currencies to have depreciated since March, and the depreciation of domestic currencies will increase commodity import prices and further aggravate domestic inflationary pressures. This may be the reason why many emerging economies have also synchronized with the Turkish central bank's rate hike recently.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90e913995172079ea2830f7727eb7b58\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"672\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The frequent crises and turmoil in Turkey in history are rooted in its own vulnerability.</b>The reasons for the frequent financial market crisis in Turkey mainly lie in the following three aspects:</p><p>First, Turkey's political environment is harsh and political turmoil occurs frequently, which not only affects the confidence of the capital market, but also inhibits the domestic supply capacity, exacerbating the inflation problem. Second, Turkey has a \"double deficit\" in current account and finance, which means that its debt financing is highly dependent on external sources, and its foreign debt burden is Turkey's long-term and lack of sustained income to repay its foreign debt, so it is very sensitive to changes in the US dollar exchange rate and interest rate. Third, Turkey's foreign reserves account for a very low proportion of GDP, and its ability to repay foreign debts and maintain the exchange rate is weak.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc989dfda559ebf997257c2d28f912aa\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"674\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>From the perspective of external factors, the strength of the US dollar is limited. The Turkish crisis does not mean a collective crisis in emerging markets, but it may have a small indirect transmission to other countries.</b>At present, the fundamentals of Turkey and other emerging markets, especially those in Asia, are quite different. Coupled with the current relatively loose international liquidity environment, the plunge of the lira does not mean a collective crisis in emerging markets.</p><p>From the perspective of transmission pathways, Russia, Spain, and Argentina are relatively more negatively affected:<b>From the perspective of trade relations, Turkey imports more from Russia, China, Germany, and the United States, accounting for about 5% of Russia's total exports, and a low proportion among other major importing countries; From the perspective of the relationship between the financial system, the European banking industry, especially Spain, has a large debt risk exposure to Turkey. In addition, the fluctuation of the Turkish lira in the financial market may also be linked to the Argentine peso.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4aaea96c335fa53b1e0de59aeebc6d\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"841\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The impact of the Turkish crisis on the RMB exchange rate and China's capital market is limited.</b>From a fundamental perspective, exports to Turkey accounted for only 0.7% of my country's exports in 2019, indicating that even if Turkey's fundamentals deteriorate, it will have little impact on my country.</p><p>At the financial level, the recent the US Dollar Index has been hovering at the level of 91-92. First, it has dropped significantly from the high of more than 100 in 2020. Secondly, it has not strengthened further recently. The recent performance of the RMB exchange rate has also been calm. In the middle, U.S. stocks, which have a greater impact on global risk appetite, have still risen despite the shock, indicating that foreign risk appetite still benefits from the overall environment of stable liquidity and economic recovery.</p><p>We expect that its representativeness and contagiousness to the overall emerging market will not be strong, and it will not be an important risk point affecting my country's capital market for the time being. In addition, my country's economy has taken the lead in recovering from the epidemic, and the opening of the capital market continues to attract foreign capital inflows, which is also different from the fundamentals and capital flow situation faced by Turkey. It is expected that the lira crisis will not have much impact on the RMB exchange rate and domestic capital flow situation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ff41b251f225f71639a980dcd9b95b1\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In terms of the international environment, the rise in U.S. bond yields is not equivalent to the liquidity tightening of the U.S. dollar. the US Dollar Index only rebounded slightly rather than reversed.</b>The rise in U.S. bond yields is the inevitable result of the rise in global and U.S. nominal economic growth and improved expectations, and the rise in U.S. bond yields usually coincides with the rise in U.S. stocks. Therefore, in the context of the Federal Reserve's clear statement that it will maintain loose monetary policy,<b>The rise in U.S. bond yields mainly reflects the improving economic outlook and upward price trends, and may be accompanied by an increase in risk appetite, which does not necessarily indicate a global liquidity crunch.</b>In the case of a sharp and significant upward trend in U.S. bond yields, we found that the US Dollar Index only rebounded slightly to the level of 91-92, which confirms that capital will not flow out of emerging markets and return to the United States on a large scale due to the rise in U.S. bond yields, thus significantly pushing up U.S. dollars.</p><p>From the perspective of the trend of the US dollar itself, the US Dollar Index has dropped significantly from the high of 102 in March 2020 and entered a weak cycle. The US Dollar Index's short-term rebound is mainly due to two reasons:</p><p>First, the improvement of the epidemic situation in the United States and the promotion of vaccines rank among the best in the world; Second, Biden's policy measures after taking office have brought strong fiscal stimulus expectations at this stage, which is conducive to the economic prospects. However, the US Dollar Index's strength is actually quite limited because,<b>Although there is a speed difference, the world is in a period of common recovery, which still constitutes a global environment for increasing US dollar leverage, and the supply of US dollars tends to increase in total, thus inhibiting the strength of the US Dollar Index.</b>Based on the general trend of the Federal Reserve's easing policy and global recovery, we believe that the the US Dollar Index is limited to a rebound rather than a reversal, and the US Dollar Index is still in the third weak cycle after 1970.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8012910e3326bb06b96cc8577c7e3f67\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"lsy1582886636882","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the Turkish crisis representative, and are emerging markets really dangerous?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the Turkish crisis representative, and are emerging markets really dangerous?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">轩言全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-26 21:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>In response to domestic inflation and currency depreciation pressure, the central banks of three emerging economies, including Türkiye, have recently taken rate hike measures.</b>On March 18, the Brazilian Central Bank announced its first rate hike in six years, raising the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to 2.75%, and said it would rate hike the same amount again at the May meeting.</p><p>On March 19, the Central Bank of Turkey announced \"early action\" and raised the benchmark interest rate by 200 basis points to 19%, twice the market expectation, in response to inflation close to 16% and the depreciation of the lira; On March 20, the Central Bank of Russia announced a rate hike of 25 basis points to 4.5%, which was the first time that Russia had raised its key interest rate since 2018. The Central Bank of Russia stated that the balance of risk had shifted to the risk of rising inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/557a2ff485f462b461cacd8cb79db94f\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In response to the country's long-standing high inflation and recent increasing inflationary pressures, Türkiye has made four sharp rate hike in the past two years.</b>Different from other emerging economies, Turkey's CPI year-on-year growth rate has continued to be in double digits for most periods since 2017. Starting from June 2020, as global commodity prices bottomed out and rebounded rapidly, Turkey's DPPI year-on-year The growth rate has begun to rise, rising from the bottom level of 5.5% to 27.1%. Starting from November 2020, Turkey's CPI year-on-year growth rate has also risen from 11.9% to 15.6% in February 2021.</p><p>In response to domestic inflation, the Turkish Central Bank has conducted four consecutive rate hike since September 2020, on September 25, November 20, December 25, 2020 and March 19, 2021.<b>Rate hike ranges are 200BP, 475BP, 200BP and 200BP respectively. The capital market generally recognizes the rate hike measures of the Turkish central bank.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f0d3b2697724be0df1c5ec754988e63\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The Turkish president's removal of the central bank governor and appointment of a new candidate to support the low interest rate policy have dampened overseas investors' confidence in the Turkish capital market, accelerating the outflow of foreign capital, and killing Turkish stocks, foreign exchange and bonds.</b>On the evening of 19th, Turkish President Erdogan unexpectedly dismissed Naci Agbal, the governor of the Turkish central bank who had only been in office for four months. This is the third time that Erdogan has replaced the governor of the central bank in the past two years. The reason for his dismissal lies precisely in Erdogan's dissatisfaction with his rate hike measures. Erdogan believes that rate hike is the cause of inflation and demands that interest rates be kept low to stimulate economic growth.</p><p>According to the presidential decree, the position of central bank governor will be taken over by Sahap Kavcioglu, who has been criticizing the central bank's rate hike measures, which means that the Turkish central bank is likely to re-adopt the low interest rate policy and give up controlling inflation and saving the exchange rate. In view of the fact that it is difficult for overseas investors to agree with its policy measures, the loss of confidence in the central bank's credibility has accelerated the outflow of capital from the Turkish market, and made Turkey face the situation of \"three kills of stocks, bonds and foreign exchange\".</p><p>On March 22nd, Turkey's long-term sovereign bonds denominated in US dollars recorded a record one-day decline. The yield of 10-year Treasury Bond rose by 4.5% to 18.0%, the benchmark stock index Istanbul 100 index fell by 9.8%, and the stock market fused twice for two consecutive days. The Turkish lira once plunged 17% during the session, and finally depreciated by 7.5% that day. On March 23rd, the turmoil in the Turkish capital market continued.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dc658687f25b0186217e81807c995ff\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Stronger the US Dollar Index and rising U.S. bond yields were among the background factors for Turkish rate hike in March.</b>Combined with the synchronous rate hike of other countries, the strengthening of the US Dollar Index and the rapid rise of U.S. bond yields, as well as the resulting turmoil in the global capital market and changes in capital flows, may prompt some funds to withdraw from emerging markets, causing Russian, Brazilian and Turkish currencies to have depreciated since March, and the depreciation of domestic currencies will increase commodity import prices and further aggravate domestic inflationary pressures. This may be the reason why many emerging economies have also synchronized with the Turkish central bank's rate hike recently.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90e913995172079ea2830f7727eb7b58\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"672\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The frequent crises and turmoil in Turkey in history are rooted in its own vulnerability.</b>The reasons for the frequent financial market crisis in Turkey mainly lie in the following three aspects:</p><p>First, Turkey's political environment is harsh and political turmoil occurs frequently, which not only affects the confidence of the capital market, but also inhibits the domestic supply capacity, exacerbating the inflation problem. Second, Turkey has a \"double deficit\" in current account and finance, which means that its debt financing is highly dependent on external sources, and its foreign debt burden is Turkey's long-term and lack of sustained income to repay its foreign debt, so it is very sensitive to changes in the US dollar exchange rate and interest rate. Third, Turkey's foreign reserves account for a very low proportion of GDP, and its ability to repay foreign debts and maintain the exchange rate is weak.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc989dfda559ebf997257c2d28f912aa\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"674\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>From the perspective of external factors, the strength of the US dollar is limited. The Turkish crisis does not mean a collective crisis in emerging markets, but it may have a small indirect transmission to other countries.</b>At present, the fundamentals of Turkey and other emerging markets, especially those in Asia, are quite different. Coupled with the current relatively loose international liquidity environment, the plunge of the lira does not mean a collective crisis in emerging markets.</p><p>From the perspective of transmission pathways, Russia, Spain, and Argentina are relatively more negatively affected:<b>From the perspective of trade relations, Turkey imports more from Russia, China, Germany, and the United States, accounting for about 5% of Russia's total exports, and a low proportion among other major importing countries; From the perspective of the relationship between the financial system, the European banking industry, especially Spain, has a large debt risk exposure to Turkey. In addition, the fluctuation of the Turkish lira in the financial market may also be linked to the Argentine peso.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4aaea96c335fa53b1e0de59aeebc6d\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"841\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The impact of the Turkish crisis on the RMB exchange rate and China's capital market is limited.</b>From a fundamental perspective, exports to Turkey accounted for only 0.7% of my country's exports in 2019, indicating that even if Turkey's fundamentals deteriorate, it will have little impact on my country.</p><p>At the financial level, the recent the US Dollar Index has been hovering at the level of 91-92. First, it has dropped significantly from the high of more than 100 in 2020. Secondly, it has not strengthened further recently. The recent performance of the RMB exchange rate has also been calm. In the middle, U.S. stocks, which have a greater impact on global risk appetite, have still risen despite the shock, indicating that foreign risk appetite still benefits from the overall environment of stable liquidity and economic recovery.</p><p>We expect that its representativeness and contagiousness to the overall emerging market will not be strong, and it will not be an important risk point affecting my country's capital market for the time being. In addition, my country's economy has taken the lead in recovering from the epidemic, and the opening of the capital market continues to attract foreign capital inflows, which is also different from the fundamentals and capital flow situation faced by Turkey. It is expected that the lira crisis will not have much impact on the RMB exchange rate and domestic capital flow situation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ff41b251f225f71639a980dcd9b95b1\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In terms of the international environment, the rise in U.S. bond yields is not equivalent to the liquidity tightening of the U.S. dollar. the US Dollar Index only rebounded slightly rather than reversed.</b>The rise in U.S. bond yields is the inevitable result of the rise in global and U.S. nominal economic growth and improved expectations, and the rise in U.S. bond yields usually coincides with the rise in U.S. stocks. Therefore, in the context of the Federal Reserve's clear statement that it will maintain loose monetary policy,<b>The rise in U.S. bond yields mainly reflects the improving economic outlook and upward price trends, and may be accompanied by an increase in risk appetite, which does not necessarily indicate a global liquidity crunch.</b>In the case of a sharp and significant upward trend in U.S. bond yields, we found that the US Dollar Index only rebounded slightly to the level of 91-92, which confirms that capital will not flow out of emerging markets and return to the United States on a large scale due to the rise in U.S. bond yields, thus significantly pushing up U.S. dollars.</p><p>From the perspective of the trend of the US dollar itself, the US Dollar Index has dropped significantly from the high of 102 in March 2020 and entered a weak cycle. The US Dollar Index's short-term rebound is mainly due to two reasons:</p><p>First, the improvement of the epidemic situation in the United States and the promotion of vaccines rank among the best in the world; Second, Biden's policy measures after taking office have brought strong fiscal stimulus expectations at this stage, which is conducive to the economic prospects. However, the US Dollar Index's strength is actually quite limited because,<b>Although there is a speed difference, the world is in a period of common recovery, which still constitutes a global environment for increasing US dollar leverage, and the supply of US dollars tends to increase in total, thus inhibiting the strength of the US Dollar Index.</b>Based on the general trend of the Federal Reserve's easing policy and global recovery, we believe that the the US Dollar Index is limited to a rebound rather than a reversal, and the US Dollar Index is still in the third weak cycle after 1970.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8012910e3326bb06b96cc8577c7e3f67\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/cQFsgYDzs5RFxQ-mFCgoNQ\">轩言全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9e96b6b37180c3969a55df6e11880b8","relate_stocks":{"TUR":"土耳其ETF-iShares MSCI"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/cQFsgYDzs5RFxQ-mFCgoNQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133889321","content_text":"为应对国内通胀与货币贬值压力，近期包括土耳其在内的三个新兴经济体央行采取了加息措施。3月18日，巴西央行宣布六年来首次加息，将基准利率上调75个基点至2.75%，并称将在5月会议上再次加息相同幅度。\n3月19日，土耳其央行宣布“提前行动”，将指标利率上调200个基点至19%，幅度为市场预期的两倍，以应对接近16%的通胀和里拉的贬值；3月20日，俄罗斯央行宣布加息25个基点至4.5%，是俄罗斯自2018年以来，首次上调关键利率，俄央行表示，风险的天平已转向了通胀上升的风险。\n\n为应对本国持续已久的高通胀和近期的通胀压力加剧，近两年土耳其已四次大幅加息。与其他新兴经济体不同的是，2017年以来的大多数时期，土耳其CPI同比增速持续处于两位数状态，从2020年6月起，随着全球大宗商品价格触底快速回升，土耳其DPPI同比增速开始出现抬升，从5.5%的底部水平已抬升至27.1%，从2020年11月开始，土耳其CPI同比增速亦从11.9%抬升至2021年2月的15.6%。\n为应对国内通胀，自2020年9月以来，土耳其央行已连续四次加息，分别为2020年9月25日、11月20日、12月25日和2021年3月19日，加息幅度分别为200BP、475BP、200BP、200BP。对于土耳其央行的加息举措，资本市场总体呈认可态度。\n\n土耳其总统罢免央行行长并任命支持低利率政策的新人选打击了海外投资者对土耳其资本市场的信心，外资加速流出，土耳其股汇债三杀。土耳其总统埃尔多安19日晚出人意料地免除了仅上任4个月的土耳其央行行长Naci Agbal的职务，这是埃尔多安过去2年里第3次撤换央行行长，而免职原因恰恰在于埃尔多安对于其加息举措的不满，埃尔多安认为，恰恰加息才是导致通胀的原因，要求保持低利率以刺激经济增长。\n根据总统令，央行行长职位将由一直批评央行加息举措的Sahap Kavcioglu接任，这意味着土耳其央行很可能重新采取低利率政策，并放弃控制通胀和拯救汇率，鉴于海外投资者难以认同其政策举措，对央行信誉信心的丧失使得资本加速流出土耳其市场，并使得土耳其面临“股债汇三杀”的局面。\n3月22日，土耳其以美元计价的长期主权债券录得创纪录的单日跌幅，10年期国债收益率上升4.5%至18.0%，基准股指伊斯坦堡100指数下跌9.8%，且股市连续两日两度熔断，土耳其里拉盘中一度暴跌17%，当日最终贬值7.5%，3月23日，土耳其资本市场的动荡仍在延续。\n\n美元指数走强和美债收益率上行是3月土耳其加息的背景因素之一。结合他国的同步加息来看，美元指数走强和美债收益率快速上行，以及由此带来的全球资本市场动荡和资金流向变化，可能促使部分资金从新兴市场撤出，使得俄罗斯、巴西以及土耳其的货币均在3月以来出现贬值，而本国货币的贬值会使得商品进口价格上升，并进一步加剧国内通胀压力，这可能是近期多个新兴经济体也同步于土耳其央行加息的原因。\n\n历史上土耳其频频爆发危机和动荡，根源在于自身所具有的脆弱性。土耳其金融市场危机频发的原因主要在于以下三个方面：\n\n 第一，土耳其政治环境恶劣，政治动荡频发，既影响资本市场信心，也抑制国内供给能力，加剧了通胀问题问题，第二，土耳其存在经常账户和财政“双赤字”的情况，意味着其债务融资外源性依赖程度高，外债负担是土耳其面临的长期又缺乏持续的收入来偿还外债，因此对美元汇率和利率的变化非常敏感；第三，土耳其外储占GDP比重很低，偿付外债的能力和维护汇率的能力较弱。\n\n\n从外部因素来看，美元强势程度有限，土耳其危机并不意味着新兴市场集体性的危机，但可能对其他国家有小幅度间接传导。当前土耳其与其他新兴市场、特别是亚洲新兴市场的基本面差异较大，加之目前相对宽松的国际流动性环境，里拉暴跌暂不意味着新兴市场集体性的危机。\n从传导途径看，俄罗斯、西班牙、阿根廷相对受到负面影响更大：从贸易关系看，土耳其从俄罗斯、中国、德国、美国进口较多，在俄罗斯总出口中占比5%左右，在其他主要进口国中占比均较低；从金融体系的关系看，欧洲银行业、特别是西班牙对土耳其的债务风险敞口较大。此外金融市场上土耳其里拉的波动也可能与阿根廷比索产生联动。\n\n土耳其危机对人民币汇率和我国资本市场的影响有限。从基本面看，2019年对土耳其出口在我国出口中占比仅为0.7%，显示土耳其基本面即使恶化对我国影响也很小。\n金融层面，近期美元指数在91-92水平徘徊，首先较2020年100以上的高位有明显回落，其次近期未进一步走强，人民币汇率近期表现也波澜不惊，欧美央行近期表态显示货币政策仍处于宽松走向中，对全球风险偏好有较大影响的美股在震荡中仍然有所上涨，表明外资风险偏好仍然受益于流动性平稳和经济复苏的大环境，侧面凸显土耳其动荡有较强的个体国别因素。\n我们预计其对整体新兴市场的代表性和传染性不强，暂不会是影响我国资本市场的重要风险点。加之我国经济率先从疫情中恢复，且资本市场的开放持续引来外资流入，也与土耳其面临的基本面和资本流动形势不同。预计里拉危局不会对人民币汇率和国内资本流动形势带来太大影响。\n\n国际环境方面，美债收益率的上行并不等同于美元流动性收紧，美元指数仅是小幅反弹而非反转。美债收益率上行是全球和美国名义经济增速上行和预期改善的必然结果，且美债收益率上行通常与美股上涨同时出现，因此，在美联储明确表示将维持宽松货币政策的背景下，美债收益率的上行更主要是反映了向好的经济前景和向上的价格趋势，且可能伴随着风险偏好的提升，并不必然表征全球流动性紧缩。在美债收益率大幅、显著上行的情况下，我们发现美元指数仅仅小幅反弹至91-92水平，侧面印证了并非美债收益率上行资本就会大规模流出新兴市场、回流美国从而显著推升美元。\n从美元走势本身来说，美元指数从2020年3月的102高点已显著回落，进入一个弱势周期。美元指数短期反弹，主要出于两方面原因：\n\n 第一，美国疫情改善、疫苗推进在全球名列前茅；第二，拜登上台后的政策举措为现阶段带来较强财政刺激预期，有利于经济前景。\n\n但是，美元指数走强的幅度实际上相当有限，原因在于，虽然存在速度差异，但全球处于一个共同复苏的时段，那么就仍然构成全球加美元杠杆的大环境，美元供应从总量上趋于增加，从而抑制了美元指数的走强幅度。基于美联储宽松政策和全球复苏的大趋势，我们认为美元指数仅限于反弹而非反转，美元指数仍处于1970年之后的第三轮弱势周期中。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TUR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1027,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":356767945,"gmtCreate":1616817952187,"gmtModify":1704799383138,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"infrastructure improvemnet by Joe","listText":"infrastructure improvemnet by Joe","text":"infrastructure improvemnet by Joe","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/356767945","repostId":"1170764582","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170764582","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616765445,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170764582?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-26 21:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Detailed explanation of Biden's reconstruction plan: how to build it? How much impact does it have on the stock market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170764582","media":" 一瑜中的","summary":"作者：张瑜 付春生主要观点1.9万亿美元救济落地后，关于拜登基建计划的讨论热度迅速升温。由于计划目前尚未正式公布，本篇报告以拜登在竞选时提出的基建计划和加税计划作为蓝本，从四个角度（必要性、历史比较、","content":"<p>Author: Zhang Yu Fu Chunsheng</p><p><b>Main views</b></p><p>After the $1.9 trillion relief was implemented, discussions about Biden's infrastructure plan heated up rapidly. Since the plan has not yet been officially announced, this report is based on the infrastructure plan and tax increase plan proposed by Biden during the election campaign, and understands Biden's infrastructure and tax increase plan from four perspectives (necessity, historical comparison, specific measures, and impact). Increase taxes in order to get a general understanding of the measures and impacts of future formal reconstruction plans.</p><p>Biden Infrastructure: How to Build it?</p><p><b>1. Is it necessary for the United States to develop infrastructure at present?</b></p><p>Very necessary. First of all, the infrastructure situation is worrying. According to the latest ASCE assessment, the infrastructure in the United States is still mostly below standard, showing serious deterioration. According to the Global Competitiveness Report, the United States ranked 13th in the world in the field of infrastructure in 2019 and 5th in 2002. Second, there is a large-scale investment gap. The total infrastructure investment gap in the next ten years has reached 2.59 trillion US dollars. Finally, the intensity of infrastructure expenditure is far lower than that of major economies. Europe's infrastructure expenditure is equivalent to 5% of GDP, China's infrastructure expenditure accounts for about 8% of GDP, and the United States' only 2.4%. The United States mainly relies on local and state governments for infrastructure investment, but local governments are gradually beyond their reach. As the stock of infrastructure continues to grow, state and local governments have to bear more operating and maintenance costs, and new investment has been declining since the early 2000s.</p><p><b>2. Is there any precedent for the federal government to lead infrastructure investment?</b></p><p>From a historical comparison, Biden infrastructure is the second largest federal infrastructure investment in the United States since the last century. Since the last century, the U.S. federal government has led four rounds of large-scale infrastructure investment. The largest investment is Roosevelt's New Deal, with public works expenditures of $18 billion, accounting for 31% of GDP in 1933; The smallest investment is Obama's ARRA Act, with infrastructure expenditures of US $120 billion, accounting for 0.8% of GDP in 2009. Eisenhower's cost of building interstate highways was $25 billion, accounting for 5.6% of GDP in 1956, and Clinton's information superhighway plan invested a total of 400 billion, accounting for 5.8% of GDP in 1993. The scale of Biden's infrastructure investment is approximately US $1.3 trillion, accounting for 6.1% of GDP in 2019, making it the second largest investment since the last century.</p><p><b>3. What are Biden's specific measures for infrastructure construction?</b></p><p>The plan proposed on Biden's campaign website is $2 trillion over 10 years, accounting for 9.3% of GDP in 2019; Among them, infrastructure investment was US $1.3 trillion, accounting for 6.1% of GDP in 2019. The plan has three key points: 1) The content is very extensive. It covers eight major areas: modern infrastructure, automobile industry development, clean power investment, building renovation and housing construction, clean energy investment, sustainable agriculture, equal community development and manufacturing revitalization. 2) Promoting employment and rebuilding the middle class are the highlights. 3) Keep manufacturing in the United States. Preventing manufacturing relocation is intrinsically consistent with the need to create jobs. It should be noted that the amount of investment in various fields in the plan is still unclear, and only a few projects have put forward clear investment amounts.</p><p><b>4. What impact will Biden's infrastructure have on the US economy?</b></p><p>1) Impact on GDP: In 10 years, the annual infrastructure expenditure is about 130 billion. Estimated based on the output multiplier of 0.4-3 (assessed by the University of Maryland and CBO), the annual additional output contribution to GDP is about 52 billion ~ 390 billion US dollars, which is about 0.2% to 1.8% of nominal GDP in 2019. 2) Impact on employment: Biden's reconstruction plan may create more than 10 million jobs in the United States in the next ten years. 3) Bank of America estimates that Biden's infrastructure plan may bring about GDP growth of 2% to 9% in the short term and significant GDP growth in the long term.</p><p>Biden Tax Increase: How?</p><p><b>1. Biden's tax increase is basically certain.</b></p><p>Three major reasons: 1) Tax increase is one of Biden's campaign slogans, and there is a high probability that it will be fulfilled. 2) It is clearly stated on the Biden campaign website that the 1.3 trillion infrastructure investment will all be raised by ensuring that the super-rich and corporations pay their fair (tax) share. 3) Treasury Secretary Yellen has said that part of the spending on the next bill (Biden's reconstruction plan) will be raised by tax increases.</p><p><b>Second, there are precedents for tax increases.</b></p><p>Since the 1950s, the income tax rate in the United States has been on a downward trend as a whole, with more tax cuts and less tax increases. There were three major tax increases. One was the Vietnam War surtax levied from 1968 to 1970 to cope with Vietnam War expenditures. Second, in 1990, George H.W. Bush raised taxes in response to the deficit growth. Third, Clinton raised taxes in 1993, which was also the largest and largest tax increase in the United States since 1950, and its purpose was also to reduce the fiscal deficit.</p><p><b>Third, the tax burden of the rich increases, and the burden of the middle and lower classes reduces; The corporate tax burden has increased, but the manufacturing industry is encouraged to return.</b></p><p>The target of Biden's tax increase is very clear, that is, wealthy groups and enterprises, and the tax incentives and credits for the middle and lower classes of society have actually increased. On the one hand, raise the payroll tax, income tax, capital gains tax and inheritance tax of wealthy groups; on the other hand, raise the corporate income tax rate again and adjust some other corporate taxes.</p><p><b>4. What impact will Biden's tax increase have on the US economy?</b></p><p>As far as economic growth is concerned, both the Tax Foundation and the Tax Policy Center estimate that tax increases will have a negative impact on economic growth in the next decade, which will reduce GDP by 1.62% to 3.4% in the next decade. In terms of tax revenue, the Tax Foundation believes tax increases could raise about 2.8 trillion in tax revenue over the next decade, while the Tax Policy Center estimates that tax increases will reduce federal revenue by $161 billion over the next decade (about 8% of total 10-year revenue). In addition, the Tax Foundation predicts that the tax increase will reduce the wage level, lose jobs, narrow the income gap, but reduce the overall after-tax income of residents.</p><p><b>Two key points in time: When will a formal redevelopment plan likely be rolled out?</b></p><p><b>The first key time point: April-May this year.</b></p><p>When Biden proposed the U.S. relief plan on January 14 this year, he made it clear: When I attend the joint session of Congress for the first time next month, I will propose my 'Recovery Plan for a Better Future'. Biden's reconstruction plan should have been formally proposed in February, but the epidemic is the top priority. On February 11, House Speaker Pelosi said that we will not do anything until we pass the COVID-19 pandemic relief bill.</p><p>When will the joint session of Congress be held? That's the key. On March 24th, White House spokesman Psaki said that there is no determined time yet. Historically, the president has attended and delivered a speech to a joint session of Congress no more than February at the latest. It is now expected overseas that Biden will officially attend a joint session of Congress in April, when he will introduce the reconstruction plan to lawmakers. According to Goldman Sachs, the White House may submit a detailed budget plan to Congress in May. According to the statement of the top Democratic Party, it is hoped that the infrastructure plan will pass the committees under the Senate and the House of Representatives in May. Therefore, we expect that the total scale of the reconstruction plan and the specific project details will most likely be announced in April-May.</p><p><b>The second critical time point: October.</b></p><p>First, after October, the Democratic Party can start the budget reconciliation process again. Second, the positive statement of the top Democratic Party indicates that it will push the reconstruction plan into Congress for voting as soon as possible or push the reconstruction plan to go through the budget reconciliation process at the beginning of the new fiscal year.</p><p>Risk warning: There are differences within the Democratic Party on the reconstruction plan.</p><p><b>Report Table of Contents</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a2d175dd5fcc77e4928e9a8001033b8\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Report text</p><p>After the implementation of the 1.9 trillion U.S. relief plan, the discussion about the Build Back Better Recovery Plan (because most of its measures are related to infrastructure, relevant reports and reports at home and abroad also call it the Biden infrastructure plan) heated up rapidly. According to a Bloomberg report on March 22, the recent reconstruction plan will be submitted to Biden, and the plan also includes a tax increase plan. White House Press Secretary Psaki also said on the 22nd that time is running out, so he will discuss with his team what options, scale and scope are available this week. According to Biden's statement when proposing the relief plan, he will introduce his reconstruction plan to members of Congress when he attends the joint session of Congress for the first time and delivers a speech to the joint session of Congress, so the reconstruction plan may be officially unveiled in April.</p><p>Since Biden's reconstruction plan has not yet been announced, this report uses the infrastructure plan and tax increase plan proposed by Biden during the election campaign as a blue book for analysis.</p><p>1. Biden infrastructure: how to build it?</p><p>Regarding Biden's infrastructure, we can mainly clarify four issues. First, is it necessary for the United States to develop infrastructure at present? Second, is there any historical experience of the U.S. government leading large-scale infrastructure investment? If so, from a historical comparison, what is the scale of Biden's infrastructure investment? Third, how to build the specific areas and measures of the infrastructure plan? Fourth, what is the impact of the infrastructure plan on the US economy?</p><p>(1) Is it necessary for the United States to develop infrastructure at present?</p><p>The current infrastructure situation in the United States is worrying, and it is very necessary to make large-scale investment. Most infrastructure systems in the United States were built in the 1960s, and many facilities have reached their maximum useful life and are close to being scrapped.</p><p>First, the infrastructure situation is worrying, and the comprehensive evaluation grade is low. The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) rated U.S. infrastructure with a D + (grade A-F) in 2017, and the rating was raised to C-in 2021. Although the rating has improved, it also shows that the infrastructure in the United States is still mostly below standard, showing serious deterioration. From a global comparison, the rating of the infrastructure sector in the United States has also been declining in the past two decades. According to the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report, the United States ranked 13th in the world in the field of infrastructure in 2019, compared with 5th in 2002, a drop of 8 places in 17 years.</p><p>2. There is currently a large-scale infrastructure investment gap in the United States. If it is not filled, it will have a huge negative impact on economic and social development. There are two sources of assessment: 1) The 2021 report of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) believes that the total gap in infrastructure investment in the United States has reached 2.59 trillion US dollars in the next ten years. If it is not made up, the United States will lose 10 trillion US dollars by 2039. GDP, a loss of 2.4 trillion exports. 2) McKinsey's 2016 study believes that from 2017 to 2030, $150 billion in infrastructure investment will be needed every year to keep up with the U.S. economy's demand for infrastructure.</p><p>3. U.S. infrastructure spending is far lower than that of major economies in the world, and it mainly relies on state and local governments. European countries spend the equivalent of 5% of GDP on building and maintaining infrastructure, and China's infrastructure expenditure averages about 8% of its GDP, while the United States only spends 2.4% [1]. In addition, unlike most other industrialized countries, the United States mainly relies on local and state government expenditures to meet its infrastructure needs. Most European countries or regions provide funds for most infrastructure construction at the national level, but only 25% of public infrastructure funds in the United States in 2017 came from the federal government. This figure is far lower than the peak of 38% in 1977, indicating that the federal government has less and less responsibility for spending on public infrastructure. As the stock of infrastructure in the United States continues to increase, state and local governments have to bear more operating and maintenance costs, which has also caused new investment in infrastructure to decline since the early 2000s.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92d1fe0e962d44eff5f6d6a13da64df6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80cf9e50d231575711b16ef73e71bb98\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(2) Has the federal government made major investments in infrastructure in history?</p><p>Since the last century, the United States has experienced four large-scale infrastructure investments led by the federal government. From a historical comparison, Biden's infrastructure plan is the second largest federal infrastructure investment in the United States since the last century. Since the last century, the U.S. federal government has led four rounds of large-scale infrastructure investment. The largest investment is Roosevelt's New Deal, with public works-related expenditures of $18 billion, accounting for 31% of GDP in 1933; The smallest investment is Obama's ARRA Act, in which infrastructure expenditure is US $120 billion, accounting for 0.8% of GDP in 2009. Eisenhower's cost of building interstate highways was $25 billion, accounting for about 5.6% of GDP in 1956, and Clinton's total investment in information superhighway plan was 400 billion, accounting for 5.8% of GDP in 1993. Infrastructure spending announced on Biden's campaign website is approximately US $1.3 trillion, accounting for approximately 6.1% of GDP in 2019, making it the second largest investment since the last century.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/482f1bb788c01537a9201e79b2e0f4b1\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>1. Roosevelt's New Deal</p><p>After the Great Depression, in order to stimulate employment recovery, Roosevelt signed the National Industrial Recovery Act in 1933. He believed that extensive public works programs could directly bring employment opportunities. Through the establishment of Federal Economic Relief Agency, Public Works Administration (PWA), Public Utilities Promotion Agency (WPA) and other agencies, it has brought more than 10 million jobs to the United States. By the eve of World War II, the federal government's engineering expenses and direct relief expenses amounted to $18 billion, accounting for 31% of the U.S. GDP in 1933 and 14% of the U.S. GDP in 1941. If we look at expenditure in a broad sense, the total federal expenditure of Roosevelt's New Deal was $41.7 billion, accounting for 73% of the U.S. GDP in 1933 and 32% of the U.S. GDP in 1941.</p><p>Large-scale public works expenditure has also achieved remarkable results: in terms of public works, WPA's small projects include 78,000 bridges and viaducts, and 572,000 miles of rural roads; In the first six years of its establishment, PWA completed about 1.14 street and highway projects, totaling 37,000 miles [2]. By the eve of World War II, the United States had built nearly 1,000 airports, more than 12,000 sports fields, and more than 800 school buildings and hospitals. In terms of employment, WPA alone provided jobs for about eight million people in 1935-1943.</p><p>2. Eisenhower: Interstate Highway</p><p>In the 1950s, Eisenhower advocated the construction of an interstate highway system in the United States. In 1956, he signed the Federal Aid Highway Act, obtaining a $25 billion authorization to build 41,000 miles of interstate highways over a decade, which would be paid by tax revenue such as the gas tax deposited into the Federal Highway Trust Fund, with the federal government providing about 90% of the total expenditure and the remaining 10% being paid by the states. The cost of building interstate highways was about 5.6% of U.S. GDP in 1956.</p><p>3. Clinton: Information Superhighway Plan</p><p>In 1992, US presidential candidate Clinton proposed to build an information superhighway during the election campaign. After Clinton took office in 1993, the information superhighway plan was officially implemented. The planned investment is US $400 billion over 20 years, and telecommunications optical cables will be gradually laid to all household users. In 1994, the U.S. government put forward the initiative of building a global information infrastructure, aiming at connecting the global information network through satellite communications and telecommunications optical cables to form a competitive mechanism for information sharing [3]. The total investment in the information superhighway plan accounted for 5.8% of the GDP of the United States in 1993.</p><p>4. Obama: ARRA fiscal stimulus bill</p><p>After the financial crisis, Obama signed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), a fiscal stimulus bill, in February 2009, with an initial total scale of $787 billion. In 2015, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the total expenditure would be about $840 billion, of which about 120 billion was used for infrastructure projects, including 48 billion for transportation and public transportation projects, 31 billion for modernization of federal buildings, 31 billion for modernization of school facilities and scientific facilities, 6 billion for water conservancy projects and 5 billion for housing climate renovation projects. The infrastructure expenditure of the ARRA Act accounted for only 0.8% of GDP in 2009.</p><p>(3) Specific measures for Biden's infrastructure plan?</p><p>1. Three key points of infrastructure plan</p><p>The plan to build modern, sustainable infrastructure and a fair and clean energy future proposed on Biden's campaign website spans 10 years and has a total scale of US $2 trillion, accounting for approximately 9.3% of GDP in 2019; If we only look at infrastructure expenditure, it is about US $1.3 trillion, accounting for about 6.1% of GDP in 2019. The plan announced on the campaign website has two characteristics:</p><p>First, the content is very extensive. The plan is not limited to traditional infrastructure and clean energy investment, but also includes new infrastructure such as smart cities and broadband, automobile industry development, building renovation and affordable housing construction, sustainable agriculture, manufacturing revitalization and small and medium-sized enterprise development, community equality and development and other fields.</p><p>Second, promoting employment and rebuilding the middle class are the highlights. It can be said that increasing employment and rebuilding the middle class is a major purpose of Biden's infrastructure development. In Biden's vision, the plan can significantly create new jobs. For example, investment in infrastructure will create millions of jobs, investment in the automobile industry will create 1 million jobs, investment in the power sector will create millions of jobs, investment in construction and housing will create 1 million high-paying jobs, agricultural protection will create 250,000 jobs, etc.</p><p>Third, keep manufacturing in the United States. Preventing the relocation of manufacturing industries is inherently consistent with the need to create jobs. This statement has been mentioned many times in the plan, such as: ensuring that automobile manufacturers are encouraged to build or restructure complete vehicle or parts factories in China; Invest in battery technology but ensure that battery production takes place domestically, etc.</p><p>In addition, it is worth noting that the specific investment amount in various fields in the infrastructure plan is still unclear, and only a few projects have proposed clear investment amounts. Because the brief introduction of the plan is very rough and there is no very detailed expenditure plan, the investment amount is only proposed in a few projects, such as: increasing federal procurement by $400 billion during the first term (the specific procurement plan is not specified); $100 billion to improve public school buildings; In his first year in office, he invested $50 billion in repairing highways, highways and bridges; Invest $20 billion in rural broadband infrastructure and provide $60 billion in funding to expand broadband access in rural areas; Invest an additional $10 billion over 10 years to support transportation projects in low-income areas; The $40 billion, 10-year transformation project fund is used to fund major infrastructure projects and so on. If the investment quota is explicitly mentioned in the introduction of the plan, the total amount is only over 800 billion dollars.</p><p>2. Not only infrastructure, but the plan covers eight major areas</p><p>Overall, Biden's infrastructure plan is not limited to the field of infrastructure, but covers a very wide range of areas, covering modern infrastructure, automobile industry development, clean power investment, building renovation and housing construction, clean energy investment, sustainable agriculture, and community equality There are eight major areas of development and manufacturing revitalization (the following is an introduction, see the appendix for details).</p><p>First, build modern infrastructure facilities.</p><p>1) Road repair and construction. In the first year of his administration, he invested $50 billion in repairing highways, roads and bridges, and investing in transportation in remote areas. 2) The second railway revolution. Invest heavily in high-speed rail, improve the passenger and freight railway system, promote the electrification of the railway system, and reduce diesel emissions. 3) Vigorously develop public transportation. By 2030, build a high-quality public transport system in cities with a population of more than 100,000. Invest an additional $10 billion over 10 years to support transportation projects in low-income areas. 4) Improve the airport. Double funding for airport improvement programs, competitive grants for major airport renovation projects, full implementation of next-generation aviation technology systems, etc. 5) Invest heavily in freight infrastructure, including inland waterways, freight corridors, freight railways, transit facilities and ports. Increase the BUILD and INFRA transportation infrastructure grant project grants from 1.8 billion to 3.5 billion per year; Add 2.5 billion annual funding for the Army Corps of Engineers to promote lock modernization on inland waterways; Support port infrastructure. 6) Water conservancy infrastructure construction. Replace aging pipes, double federal investment in clean drinking water and water infrastructure, monitor lead and other pollutants in water systems, and hold polluting enterprises accountable. Invest in water technology research and development and call on private sector innovation. 7) New infrastructure projects: smart city construction. Help 5 cities pilot new planning strategies and smart city technologies with $1 billion a year. Invest in broadband networks. Invest $20 billion to build rural broadband infrastructure, 60 billion to expand broadband access in rural areas, increase the number of broadband providers participating, etc. 8) Establish a transformation project fund. Set up a $40 billion, 10-year transformation project fund to provide assistance for huge and complex infrastructure projects.</p><p>Second, make the U.S. auto industry lead the world this century and accelerate the transition to low-carbon and carbon-free vehicles.</p><p>1) Demand side: Restore full tax credits for electric vehicles, use federal procurement to increase demand for clean vehicles, and accelerate the upgrade of 3 million government system vehicles. Set a goal of all new U.S.-made buses being zero-emissions by 2030, converting 500,000 school buses nationwide into zero-emission vehicles. 2) Encourage automobile manufacturers to build or restructure complete vehicle or parts factories in China. 3) Invest $5 billion in battery and energy storage technology over five years, while ensuring battery production takes place domestically. 4) Establish a national charging system of 500,000 public charging outlets, with an additional $1 billion in annual funding to ensure that charging stations are installed by certified technicians. 5) Convene the U.S. Department of Energy and Transportation to coordinate special demonstration projects to provide grants to municipalities and counties willing to pilot new charging infrastructure. 6) Establish fuel economy standards and reduce air pollution.</p><p>Third, clean power investment: achieve carbon-free power generation by 2035.</p><p>1) Develop clean electricity and achieve carbon-free power generation by 2035. 2) Vigorously develop the power grid, promote market reform, and expand the regional power market. 3) Establish Energy Efficiency and Clean Electricity Standards (EECES) for utilities and grid operators; 4) Upgrade transmission lines to support larger regional electricity markets and promote large-scale energy storage demonstration projects. 5) Research investments and tax incentives for technologies that capture carbon, permanently sequestrate and utilize captured carbon will be doubled.</p><p>Fourth, building renovation to improve building energy efficiency.</p><p>1) Promote school modernization. Invest $100 billion to improve public school buildings and upgrade childcare and early learning facilities across the country. 2) Building energy-saving renovation. Upgrade 4 million commercial buildings and carry out energy-saving renovations for 2 million households within 4 years. Promote the electrification of the construction industry and increase investment in key technologies such as energy-saving renovation projects of low-income houses and electric heat pumps; Building net-zero carbon federal buildings, etc. 3) Halve the carbon footprint of U.S. building stock by 2035. 4) Promote the construction of 1.5 million public housing units and inject more funds into low-income communities to promote the construction of affordable housing and the development of small businesses.</p><p>Fifth, make historic investments in clean energy innovation.</p><p>1) Increase federal procurement by $400 billion during the first term, with one focus on the purchase of key clean energy inputs such as batteries and electric vehicles. 2) Focus on strategic research areas such as clean energy, clean transportation, clean industrial processes and clean materials in the next 4 years. 3) Strengthen and build key clean energy supply chains in the United States, solve issues such as dependence on rare earth minerals, and accelerate innovation in supply chain resilience. 4) Invest heavily in national laboratories, high-performance computing capability facilities, and other critical infrastructure.</p><p>Sixth, invest in sustainable agriculture and environmental conservation.</p><p>1) Call on and mobilize a new generation of Americans to devote themselves to protecting the environment and tackling climate change through civil climate organizations. 2) Make upfront investments to clean up environmental damage and impacts caused by previous resource extraction. 3) Maintaining farms and ranches in America. Provide low-cost funding for farmers to transition to new equipment and methods, fund research and development of precision agriculture and new crops, and establish voluntary carbon farming markets; Pursue pro-worker and pro-family farmer trade policies; Strengthening food supply security and resilience; Ensure fair competition among small and medium-sized farms, etc.</p><p>Seventh, community equality and development.</p><p>1) $5 billion annually to expand the new market tax credit and make the program permanent; 2) Double funding for the Community Development Financial Institutions Fund to support financial institutions in low-income areas. 3) Establish a $10 billion Urban Revitalization Fund to carry out creative revitalization projects in struggling cities. 4) Funding anchor institutions in poor areas (referring to hospitals, colleges and universities, and government administrative institutions, etc.). 5) Fully implement the 10-20-30 program (allocating 10% of all federal programs to counties where 20% or more of the population has lived below the poverty line in the past 30 years).</p><p>Eighth, revitalize the manufacturing industry and small and medium-sized enterprises across the country.</p><p>1) Revitalize the manufacturing industry. Quadruple funding for the Manufacturing Expansion Partnership program to provide technical support for small manufacturers in global competition; Developing low-carbon manufacturing in every state; Use tax credits and subsidies to help businesses upgrade equipment and processes, invest in expanded or new factories, and deploy low-carbon technologies; Providing funding for more competitive or low-carbon manufacturing, etc. 2) Promote the development of small and medium-sized enterprises. Extend the National Small Business Credit Initiative program until 2025, and increase federal funding to $3 billion; Provide $5 billion to states to develop policies that encourage small business entrepreneurship, such as supporting technology transfer from public universities to the private sector.</p><p>(4) What is the impact of Biden's infrastructure construction on the US economy?</p><p>How to assess the impact of infrastructure expenditure on the economy? We can learn from the past evaluation results of infrastructure effects by American academic circles and think tanks: 1) A study by the University of Maryland in 2014 showed that every dollar spent on public transportation infrastructure investment will increase GDP growth by about $3. During the economic recession The impact is greater. 2) According to a 2014 University of Chicago report, an $83 billion infrastructure investment plan-equivalent to roughly 0.6% of GDP-would create 1.7 million jobs in the first three years. 3) According to estimates by global consulting firm McKinsey, every 1 percentage point of GDP increase in U.S. infrastructure spending will add 1.5 million jobs to the economy. 4) The Economic Policy Institute estimates that the return on infrastructure investment is high. A review of dozens of infrastructure studies shows that every $100 spent … will increase private sector output by $13 (median) and $17 (average), respectively, in the long run. 5) According to the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) 's assessment of Obama's ARRA bill, the output multiplier of infrastructure category is between 0.4-2.2.</p><p>We can learn from the evaluation results of infrastructure effects by American academic circles and think tanks to roughly estimate the overall impact of Biden's infrastructure plan on the U.S. economy and employment.</p><p>1) Impact on GDP: In Biden's infrastructure plan, the determined infrastructure expenditure is approximately US $1.3 trillion, the investment cycle is 10 years, and the average annual expenditure is approximately US $130 billion, accounting for approximately 0.6% of GDP in 2019. Based on the output multiplier of 0.4-3 (combined with the output multiplier estimated by the University of Maryland and CBO), in the next ten years, the annual additional output contribution to GDP will be approximately US $52 billion to US $390 billion, which is approximately 0.2% to 1.8% of nominal GDP in 2019.</p><p>2) Impact on employment: According to the employment impact estimate of the University of Chicago, infrastructure spending of 1.3 trillion yuan will create more than 2 million jobs per year in the next decade. According to McKinsey's assessment, it is estimated that about 10 million jobs will be created in the next decade. The employment impact of the Biden team in the plan brief is estimated to drive more than 10 million jobs. Taken together, Biden's reconstruction plan may create more than 10 million jobs in the United States in the next ten years.</p><p>3) Bank of America estimated in a report that Biden's $2 trillion infrastructure plan could lead to GDP growth of 2% to 9% in the short term and significant GDP growth in the long term, and that every 1% increase in U.S. GDP growth will lead to an increase of about 3% to 4% in S&P 500 company earnings [4].</p><p>2. Biden's tax increase: how?</p><p>Similarly, we understand Biden's tax increase from four questions. First, is Biden sure to raise taxes? What is the purpose of the tax increase? Second, is there a precedent for tax increases in American history? Third, how does Biden plan to raise taxes? Fourth, what impact will tax increases have on the US economy?</p><p>(1) Is Biden sure to raise taxes? What is the purpose?</p><p>Is Biden going to raise taxes? The tax increase should be yes. First, Biden clearly proposed a tax increase plan during the campaign. This is one of his campaign slogans and will most likely be fulfilled. Second, it is written on Biden's campaign website that as much as $1.3 trillion in investment in infrastructure will all be funded by ensuring that the super-rich and corporations pay their fair (tax) share. Third, Treasury Secretary Yellen has said that part of the spending on the next bill (referring to Biden's Reconstruction Plan bill) will be raised by tax increases.</p><p>Biden's tax increase has three purposes: first, to raise funds for the reconstruction plan, second, to fulfill campaign promises, third, to promote tax fairness through tax adjustments, and to adjust the gap between the rich and the poor through secondary distribution. From the adjustment of the tax system, it can be clearly seen that the tax burden pressure of the rich, high-income class and enterprises has increased, while the tax credit of low-and middle-income people has obviously expanded.</p><p>(2) Is there a precedent for tax increase?</p><p>Before 1950, the highest marginal tax rates of personal income tax and corporate income tax in the United States showed a gradual upward trend. During this period, the main reason for tax increase was to raise funds for war. During World War I and World War II, the highest marginal tax rates of personal income tax and corporate income tax rose sharply. Since the 1950s, the highest marginal tax rates of personal income tax and corporate income tax in the United States have shown a gradual downward trend as a whole, with many periods of tax reduction and few periods of tax increase.</p><p>Since 1950, there have been five major tax cuts: Kennedy's tax cut in 1963, Carter's tax cut in 1979, Reagan's tax cut in 1980s, George W. Bush's tax cut in 2001, and Trump's tax cut in 2017.</p><p>The most obvious tax increases since 1950 have been three times.</p><p>The first time was in the late 1960s, and the main reason for the tax increase was war factors. From 1968 to 1970, in order to cope with the expenditure of the Vietnam War, the United States imposed a Vietnam War surtax, which was abolished after 1970.</p><p>The second time was in 1990, in order to cope with the sharp increase in social public expenditure such as defense and medical care, George H.W. Bush passed the Monitoring Budget Mediation Act of 1990 in 1990, which raised the highest marginal tax rate of personal income tax from 28% to 31%.</p><p>The third time was Clinton's tax increase in 1993, and this time it was also the largest and largest tax increase in the United States since 1950. In order to reduce the fiscal deficit, Clinton proposed a tax increase plan in 1993, increasing the maximum marginal tax rate of personal income tax from 31% to 39.6% and the maximum marginal tax rate of corporate income tax from 34% to 35%. It is worth noting that the increase in the highest marginal tax rate of personal income tax from 35% to 39.6% in 2012 was not caused by the tax increase, but because George W. Bush's tax reduction period had expired, and the tax rate automatically returned to the level before the tax reduction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/059fc482c64a72c92006019e12fd347f\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a271519721bfe2d2e70b5c022a30421\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(3) How does Biden plan to increase taxes?</p><p>Biden's tax increase is mainly in two aspects:<b>First, the payroll tax, income tax, capital gains tax and inheritance tax of high-income groups; second, the corporate income tax rate is re-raised and some corporate taxes are adjusted.</b>It can be seen from the specific details of the following clauses that Biden's tax increase targets are very clear, that is, wealthy groups and enterprises, and the tax incentives and credits for the middle and lower classes of society have actually increased.</p><p>1. Adjustment of individual tax system: the tax burden of the rich increases, while the burden of the middle and lower classes reduces</p><p>1) A 12.4% Social Security payroll tax is imposed on people earning more than $400,000 a year, which is equally divided between employers and employees. Under the advance tax law, individuals earning more than 137,700 per year are not required to pay Social Security payroll taxes.</p><p>2) Increase the maximum individual income tax rate for taxable income exceeding $400,000 to 39.6% from 37% as stipulated by current law; For groups with an annual income of more than $400,000, even if there are tax incentives for itemized deductions, their personal income tax rate shall not be less than 28%; Restore the Pease limit on deductions for items with taxable income exceeding $400,000; Phase out the qualifying business income deduction for groups with taxable income over $400,000.</p><p>3) Taxes long-term capital gains and qualified Dividend income above $1 million at the ordinary income tax rate of 39.6%, eliminating the progressiveness of capital gains tax.</p><p>4) Tax credits: Expand the earned income tax credit for childless employees over 65 to provide renewable energy-related tax credits for individuals; Expand the Child and Dependent Tax Credit (CDCTC) from a maximum of $3,000 to $8,000 ($16,000 for multiple dependents) and increase the maximum reimbursement rate from 35% to 50%. In 2021, increase the Child Tax Credit (CTC) for children 17 and under from a maximum of $2,000 to $3,000, while providing an additional $600 credit for children under 6 that the CTC will refund in full. It is worth mentioning that measures regarding CTC have been implemented in the 1.9 trillion relief package; Rebuild the first-time homebuyer tax credit policy with a $15,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers.</p><p>5) Restore the rates and allowances for estate and gift taxes to 2009 levels. After Trump's tax reform in 2017, the inheritance and gift tax exemption for 2018-2025 was increased from 5 million to 10 million per person, and the tax rate was still set at 40%. If it returns to 2009 levels, the tax allowance will be reduced from the current 10 million to 3.5 million, and the tax rate will be increased from 40% to 45%.</p><p>6) Other adjustment items that lack clear information: replacing traditional deductions by providing refundable tax credits to balance the tax benefits of traditional retirement accounts (such as 401 (k) s and IRAs); Elimination of certain provisions of real estate taxes; Expanding the Affordable Care Act's premium tax credit; Create refundable tenant tax credits and provide credits of up to $5 billion per year, designed to keep rent and utility bills below 30% of a tenant's monthly income; Increase the amount of housing tax credit for low-income people.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee544b934d79e80772ee93dede7fba86\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"583\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c55ac12a24c96f38ba548d45117f82cb\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2. Corporate tax system adjustment: the tax burden increases, but the manufacturing industry is encouraged to return</p><p>1) Increase the corporate income tax rate from 21% to 28%.</p><p>2) Impose a minimum tax on companies with book profits exceeding $100 million. The minimum tax is an alternative tax-businesses will pay the higher of regular corporate income tax or the 15% minimum tax, still allowing net operating loss (NOL) and foreign tax credits.</p><p>3) Double the Global Intangible Low Tax Income tax rate for overseas subsidiaries of U.S. companies from 10.5% to 21%. A sub-country assessment of GILTI for overseas subsidiaries is proposed, removing the provision that treats GILTI less than 10% of the qualified business asset investment (QBAI) as a return exemption.</p><p>Before the tax reform in 2017, the United States generally taxed the global income of its companies and residents, and American companies could apply to postpone taxation of the active business income of overseas subsidiaries until the income was repatriated to the United States as Dividend. After the tax reform, the United States exempted the gains from the active business of overseas subsidiaries of American companies from being taxed even if these gains were repatriated (but still taxed the passive investment income of foreign subsidiaries). The U.S. Congress, concerned that the full exemption of overseas income of multinational companies could exacerbate its practice of shifting profits to overseas low-tax jurisdictions, has set a minimum tax rate of 10.5% on low-tax income from intangible assets worldwide to discourage profit shifting. GILTI refers to the revenue generated by intangible assets such as patents, trademarks, and copyrights. Intangible assets are highly moveable, and this tax rate seeks to discourage U.S. companies from moving intangible assets overseas.</p><p>4) Tax credits: Establish a manufacturing tax credit; Expand and make permanent tax credits in new markets; Tax credits for small businesses that adopt workplace retirement savings plans; Expand tax credits related to renewable energy, including those for carbon capture, use and storage and those for residential energy efficiency, and reinstate the Energy Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and EV tax credit, ending tax subsidies for fossil fuels.</p><p>5) Other adjustment items that lack clear information: Impose a 10% surtax on companies that move manufacturing and service jobs abroad in order to sell products or provide services to the U.S. market. Provides a preferred 10% Made in America tax credit for activities that resume production, revitalize facilities that have closed or are about to close, restructure facilities to promote manufacturing employment or expand manufacturing wages.</p><p>(4) The impact of Biden's tax increase on the U.S. economy</p><p>The impact of tax increases on the economy is relatively complex. We mainly draw on the assessment of overseas think tanks to roughly understand the impact of Biden's tax increases on the U.S. economy.<b>As far as economic growth is concerned, both the Tax Foundation and the Tax Policy Center estimate that tax increases will have a negative impact on economic growth in the next decade, which will reduce GDP by 1.62% to 3.4% in the next decade. In terms of tax revenue, the Tax Foundation believes tax increases could raise about 2.8 trillion in tax revenue over the next decade, while the Tax Policy Center estimates that tax increases will reduce federal revenue by $161 billion over the next decade (about 8% of total revenue over those 10 years).</b>In addition, the Tax Foundation predicts that the tax increase will reduce the wage level, lose jobs, narrow the income gap, but reduce the overall after-tax income of residents.</p><p>1. Estimates from the Tax Foundation</p><p>1) Impact on fiscal revenue: Biden's tax plan will raise approximately $2.8 trillion over the next 10 years. 2) Economic impact: In the next decade, it will reduce GDP by a total of 1.62%, GNP by a total of 1.83%, capital stock by 3.75%, long-term average wages by 1.15%, and 542,000 jobs will be lost. 3) The impact of income distribution: Biden's tax plan will reduce the after-tax income of the richest 1% of taxpayers by about 7.7% by 2030, and the average after-tax income of all taxpayers will drop by 1.9%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92310243b616c89248067f2f1a18ffc3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Tax Policy Center (TaxPolicy Center)</p><p>1) Economic impact: The U.S. GDP will decrease by a total of 3.4% in the next ten years. The impact on GDP will turn positive in 2040. In the years after 2040, the positive impact will gradually increase. 2) Revenue impact: It will reduce U.S. federal revenue by $161 billion from 2021 to 2030 (approximately 8% of total revenue for those 10 years) and by $90 billion from 2031 to 2040. By 2040, the impact of the tax plan on federal revenue will turn positive, and its positive effect will gradually increase in the subsequent years of 2040.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b75c8d26db2d05446f6e6db4dec6a9a\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0a76e285bdc0d17be49c9ec0fbade5\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>3. Key time points: When may the formal reconstruction plan be launched?</p><p>At present, the Biden team has not announced the formal plan and investment details. To track Biden's reconstruction plan in the future, there are two key time points worthy of attention:</p><p><b>The first key time point: April-May this year.</b></p><p>When Biden first proposed the U.S. relief plan on January 14 this year, he made it clear: Next month, when I attend my first joint session of Congress, I will propose my 'Recovery Plan for a Better Future' [5]. Under normal circumstances, Biden's reconstruction plan should have been formally proposed in February, but the epidemic is the top priority. On February 11, House Speaker Pelosi said that we will not do anything until we pass the COVID-19 pandemic relief bill.</p><p>When will the joint session of Congress be held? That's the key. On March 24, White House spokesperson Psaki said that there is no time set yet … We are certainly still interested in committing to a joint meeting. We will be in touch with them, but I don't know exactly when. Historically, presidents have attended and delivered speeches to joint sessions of Congress no later than February. It is now expected overseas that Biden will officially attend the joint session of Congress [6] in April, when he will introduce the reconstruction plan to lawmakers. According to Goldman Sachs, the White House may submit a detailed budget plan to Congress in May. According to the statement of the top Democratic Party, it is hoped that the infrastructure plan will pass the committees under the Senate and the House of Representatives in May. Therefore, we expect that the total scale of the reconstruction plan and the specific project details will most likely be announced in April-May.</p><p><b>The second critical time point: October.</b></p><p>The launch and implementation of Biden's reconstruction plan requires the approval of the U.S. Congress. At present, the Democratic Party controls the House of Representatives and can easily pass bills in the House of Representatives. But the Democratic Party has only a slight advantage in the Senate, with only one more vote than the Republican Party, and can't bypass the Senate filibuster (60 votes required). There are only two ways for Biden's reconstruction plan to pass the Senate. First, on the premise of ensuring the consent of all Democratic senators, win the support of at least 10 Republican senators. The second is to start the budget reconciliation process again, which is consistent with the congressional process of the 1.9 trillion U.S. relief plan, and only 51 votes are needed to pass the Senate.</p><p>Judging from the current attitude of the top Republican Senate, the feasibility of the first method is very low. Senate Republican leader McConnell said on Monday: We have heard that the so-called infrastructure bill may be proposed in the next few months. In fact, it may be a Trojan horse hiding substantial tax increases and other left-wing policies that harm jobs.</p><p>If Biden's reconstruction plan is to be implemented, the most likely thing is to start the budget reconciliation process. The U.S. fiscal year is from October to September of the following year, and the budget reconciliation process can generally only be used once a fiscal year (originally, the three areas of revenue, expenditure and deficit have an opportunity to start the budget reconciliation process every fiscal year, but the bill generally involves more than one area, basically all three areas will be covered. According to historical experience, the budget reconciliation process is also at most once a fiscal year). This year's 1.9 trillion U.S. relief plan has already used the quota of fiscal year 2021. October is the second critical point in time. First, by October, the Democratic Party can activate the budget reconciliation process again. Second, judging from the statements of Democratic lawmakers, they hope to quickly pass the reconstruction plan bill. For example, House Speaker Pelosi hopes that Congress will take quick action to formulate a transformative infrastructure plan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b55345e7966f98cb44655e2ee1d5f0ea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Appendix IV: Detailed Contents of Biden's Reconstruction Plan</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aeb3bd2d6946393ea99fee60d03300f\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/118a22c23672c23b7ffdaff2e00b0f9b\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fd4d7b6dfaec3e2161aa5abc88d706f\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee04e29c93d385e9e3f0123b9a2a6941\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a302cf76ac1ec43059d2ec6818aa587\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"lsy1584436024241","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Detailed explanation of Biden's reconstruction plan: how to build it? 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How much impact does it have on the stock market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\"> 一瑜中的</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-26 21:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Zhang Yu Fu Chunsheng</p><p><b>Main views</b></p><p>After the $1.9 trillion relief was implemented, discussions about Biden's infrastructure plan heated up rapidly. Since the plan has not yet been officially announced, this report is based on the infrastructure plan and tax increase plan proposed by Biden during the election campaign, and understands Biden's infrastructure and tax increase plan from four perspectives (necessity, historical comparison, specific measures, and impact). Increase taxes in order to get a general understanding of the measures and impacts of future formal reconstruction plans.</p><p>Biden Infrastructure: How to Build it?</p><p><b>1. Is it necessary for the United States to develop infrastructure at present?</b></p><p>Very necessary. First of all, the infrastructure situation is worrying. According to the latest ASCE assessment, the infrastructure in the United States is still mostly below standard, showing serious deterioration. According to the Global Competitiveness Report, the United States ranked 13th in the world in the field of infrastructure in 2019 and 5th in 2002. Second, there is a large-scale investment gap. The total infrastructure investment gap in the next ten years has reached 2.59 trillion US dollars. Finally, the intensity of infrastructure expenditure is far lower than that of major economies. Europe's infrastructure expenditure is equivalent to 5% of GDP, China's infrastructure expenditure accounts for about 8% of GDP, and the United States' only 2.4%. The United States mainly relies on local and state governments for infrastructure investment, but local governments are gradually beyond their reach. As the stock of infrastructure continues to grow, state and local governments have to bear more operating and maintenance costs, and new investment has been declining since the early 2000s.</p><p><b>2. Is there any precedent for the federal government to lead infrastructure investment?</b></p><p>From a historical comparison, Biden infrastructure is the second largest federal infrastructure investment in the United States since the last century. Since the last century, the U.S. federal government has led four rounds of large-scale infrastructure investment. The largest investment is Roosevelt's New Deal, with public works expenditures of $18 billion, accounting for 31% of GDP in 1933; The smallest investment is Obama's ARRA Act, with infrastructure expenditures of US $120 billion, accounting for 0.8% of GDP in 2009. Eisenhower's cost of building interstate highways was $25 billion, accounting for 5.6% of GDP in 1956, and Clinton's information superhighway plan invested a total of 400 billion, accounting for 5.8% of GDP in 1993. The scale of Biden's infrastructure investment is approximately US $1.3 trillion, accounting for 6.1% of GDP in 2019, making it the second largest investment since the last century.</p><p><b>3. What are Biden's specific measures for infrastructure construction?</b></p><p>The plan proposed on Biden's campaign website is $2 trillion over 10 years, accounting for 9.3% of GDP in 2019; Among them, infrastructure investment was US $1.3 trillion, accounting for 6.1% of GDP in 2019. The plan has three key points: 1) The content is very extensive. It covers eight major areas: modern infrastructure, automobile industry development, clean power investment, building renovation and housing construction, clean energy investment, sustainable agriculture, equal community development and manufacturing revitalization. 2) Promoting employment and rebuilding the middle class are the highlights. 3) Keep manufacturing in the United States. Preventing manufacturing relocation is intrinsically consistent with the need to create jobs. It should be noted that the amount of investment in various fields in the plan is still unclear, and only a few projects have put forward clear investment amounts.</p><p><b>4. What impact will Biden's infrastructure have on the US economy?</b></p><p>1) Impact on GDP: In 10 years, the annual infrastructure expenditure is about 130 billion. Estimated based on the output multiplier of 0.4-3 (assessed by the University of Maryland and CBO), the annual additional output contribution to GDP is about 52 billion ~ 390 billion US dollars, which is about 0.2% to 1.8% of nominal GDP in 2019. 2) Impact on employment: Biden's reconstruction plan may create more than 10 million jobs in the United States in the next ten years. 3) Bank of America estimates that Biden's infrastructure plan may bring about GDP growth of 2% to 9% in the short term and significant GDP growth in the long term.</p><p>Biden Tax Increase: How?</p><p><b>1. Biden's tax increase is basically certain.</b></p><p>Three major reasons: 1) Tax increase is one of Biden's campaign slogans, and there is a high probability that it will be fulfilled. 2) It is clearly stated on the Biden campaign website that the 1.3 trillion infrastructure investment will all be raised by ensuring that the super-rich and corporations pay their fair (tax) share. 3) Treasury Secretary Yellen has said that part of the spending on the next bill (Biden's reconstruction plan) will be raised by tax increases.</p><p><b>Second, there are precedents for tax increases.</b></p><p>Since the 1950s, the income tax rate in the United States has been on a downward trend as a whole, with more tax cuts and less tax increases. There were three major tax increases. One was the Vietnam War surtax levied from 1968 to 1970 to cope with Vietnam War expenditures. Second, in 1990, George H.W. Bush raised taxes in response to the deficit growth. Third, Clinton raised taxes in 1993, which was also the largest and largest tax increase in the United States since 1950, and its purpose was also to reduce the fiscal deficit.</p><p><b>Third, the tax burden of the rich increases, and the burden of the middle and lower classes reduces; The corporate tax burden has increased, but the manufacturing industry is encouraged to return.</b></p><p>The target of Biden's tax increase is very clear, that is, wealthy groups and enterprises, and the tax incentives and credits for the middle and lower classes of society have actually increased. On the one hand, raise the payroll tax, income tax, capital gains tax and inheritance tax of wealthy groups; on the other hand, raise the corporate income tax rate again and adjust some other corporate taxes.</p><p><b>4. What impact will Biden's tax increase have on the US economy?</b></p><p>As far as economic growth is concerned, both the Tax Foundation and the Tax Policy Center estimate that tax increases will have a negative impact on economic growth in the next decade, which will reduce GDP by 1.62% to 3.4% in the next decade. In terms of tax revenue, the Tax Foundation believes tax increases could raise about 2.8 trillion in tax revenue over the next decade, while the Tax Policy Center estimates that tax increases will reduce federal revenue by $161 billion over the next decade (about 8% of total 10-year revenue). In addition, the Tax Foundation predicts that the tax increase will reduce the wage level, lose jobs, narrow the income gap, but reduce the overall after-tax income of residents.</p><p><b>Two key points in time: When will a formal redevelopment plan likely be rolled out?</b></p><p><b>The first key time point: April-May this year.</b></p><p>When Biden proposed the U.S. relief plan on January 14 this year, he made it clear: When I attend the joint session of Congress for the first time next month, I will propose my 'Recovery Plan for a Better Future'. Biden's reconstruction plan should have been formally proposed in February, but the epidemic is the top priority. On February 11, House Speaker Pelosi said that we will not do anything until we pass the COVID-19 pandemic relief bill.</p><p>When will the joint session of Congress be held? That's the key. On March 24th, White House spokesman Psaki said that there is no determined time yet. Historically, the president has attended and delivered a speech to a joint session of Congress no more than February at the latest. It is now expected overseas that Biden will officially attend a joint session of Congress in April, when he will introduce the reconstruction plan to lawmakers. According to Goldman Sachs, the White House may submit a detailed budget plan to Congress in May. According to the statement of the top Democratic Party, it is hoped that the infrastructure plan will pass the committees under the Senate and the House of Representatives in May. Therefore, we expect that the total scale of the reconstruction plan and the specific project details will most likely be announced in April-May.</p><p><b>The second critical time point: October.</b></p><p>First, after October, the Democratic Party can start the budget reconciliation process again. Second, the positive statement of the top Democratic Party indicates that it will push the reconstruction plan into Congress for voting as soon as possible or push the reconstruction plan to go through the budget reconciliation process at the beginning of the new fiscal year.</p><p>Risk warning: There are differences within the Democratic Party on the reconstruction plan.</p><p><b>Report Table of Contents</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a2d175dd5fcc77e4928e9a8001033b8\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Report text</p><p>After the implementation of the 1.9 trillion U.S. relief plan, the discussion about the Build Back Better Recovery Plan (because most of its measures are related to infrastructure, relevant reports and reports at home and abroad also call it the Biden infrastructure plan) heated up rapidly. According to a Bloomberg report on March 22, the recent reconstruction plan will be submitted to Biden, and the plan also includes a tax increase plan. White House Press Secretary Psaki also said on the 22nd that time is running out, so he will discuss with his team what options, scale and scope are available this week. According to Biden's statement when proposing the relief plan, he will introduce his reconstruction plan to members of Congress when he attends the joint session of Congress for the first time and delivers a speech to the joint session of Congress, so the reconstruction plan may be officially unveiled in April.</p><p>Since Biden's reconstruction plan has not yet been announced, this report uses the infrastructure plan and tax increase plan proposed by Biden during the election campaign as a blue book for analysis.</p><p>1. Biden infrastructure: how to build it?</p><p>Regarding Biden's infrastructure, we can mainly clarify four issues. First, is it necessary for the United States to develop infrastructure at present? Second, is there any historical experience of the U.S. government leading large-scale infrastructure investment? If so, from a historical comparison, what is the scale of Biden's infrastructure investment? Third, how to build the specific areas and measures of the infrastructure plan? Fourth, what is the impact of the infrastructure plan on the US economy?</p><p>(1) Is it necessary for the United States to develop infrastructure at present?</p><p>The current infrastructure situation in the United States is worrying, and it is very necessary to make large-scale investment. Most infrastructure systems in the United States were built in the 1960s, and many facilities have reached their maximum useful life and are close to being scrapped.</p><p>First, the infrastructure situation is worrying, and the comprehensive evaluation grade is low. The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) rated U.S. infrastructure with a D + (grade A-F) in 2017, and the rating was raised to C-in 2021. Although the rating has improved, it also shows that the infrastructure in the United States is still mostly below standard, showing serious deterioration. From a global comparison, the rating of the infrastructure sector in the United States has also been declining in the past two decades. According to the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report, the United States ranked 13th in the world in the field of infrastructure in 2019, compared with 5th in 2002, a drop of 8 places in 17 years.</p><p>2. There is currently a large-scale infrastructure investment gap in the United States. If it is not filled, it will have a huge negative impact on economic and social development. There are two sources of assessment: 1) The 2021 report of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) believes that the total gap in infrastructure investment in the United States has reached 2.59 trillion US dollars in the next ten years. If it is not made up, the United States will lose 10 trillion US dollars by 2039. GDP, a loss of 2.4 trillion exports. 2) McKinsey's 2016 study believes that from 2017 to 2030, $150 billion in infrastructure investment will be needed every year to keep up with the U.S. economy's demand for infrastructure.</p><p>3. U.S. infrastructure spending is far lower than that of major economies in the world, and it mainly relies on state and local governments. European countries spend the equivalent of 5% of GDP on building and maintaining infrastructure, and China's infrastructure expenditure averages about 8% of its GDP, while the United States only spends 2.4% [1]. In addition, unlike most other industrialized countries, the United States mainly relies on local and state government expenditures to meet its infrastructure needs. Most European countries or regions provide funds for most infrastructure construction at the national level, but only 25% of public infrastructure funds in the United States in 2017 came from the federal government. This figure is far lower than the peak of 38% in 1977, indicating that the federal government has less and less responsibility for spending on public infrastructure. As the stock of infrastructure in the United States continues to increase, state and local governments have to bear more operating and maintenance costs, which has also caused new investment in infrastructure to decline since the early 2000s.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92d1fe0e962d44eff5f6d6a13da64df6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80cf9e50d231575711b16ef73e71bb98\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(2) Has the federal government made major investments in infrastructure in history?</p><p>Since the last century, the United States has experienced four large-scale infrastructure investments led by the federal government. From a historical comparison, Biden's infrastructure plan is the second largest federal infrastructure investment in the United States since the last century. Since the last century, the U.S. federal government has led four rounds of large-scale infrastructure investment. The largest investment is Roosevelt's New Deal, with public works-related expenditures of $18 billion, accounting for 31% of GDP in 1933; The smallest investment is Obama's ARRA Act, in which infrastructure expenditure is US $120 billion, accounting for 0.8% of GDP in 2009. Eisenhower's cost of building interstate highways was $25 billion, accounting for about 5.6% of GDP in 1956, and Clinton's total investment in information superhighway plan was 400 billion, accounting for 5.8% of GDP in 1993. Infrastructure spending announced on Biden's campaign website is approximately US $1.3 trillion, accounting for approximately 6.1% of GDP in 2019, making it the second largest investment since the last century.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/482f1bb788c01537a9201e79b2e0f4b1\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>1. Roosevelt's New Deal</p><p>After the Great Depression, in order to stimulate employment recovery, Roosevelt signed the National Industrial Recovery Act in 1933. He believed that extensive public works programs could directly bring employment opportunities. Through the establishment of Federal Economic Relief Agency, Public Works Administration (PWA), Public Utilities Promotion Agency (WPA) and other agencies, it has brought more than 10 million jobs to the United States. By the eve of World War II, the federal government's engineering expenses and direct relief expenses amounted to $18 billion, accounting for 31% of the U.S. GDP in 1933 and 14% of the U.S. GDP in 1941. If we look at expenditure in a broad sense, the total federal expenditure of Roosevelt's New Deal was $41.7 billion, accounting for 73% of the U.S. GDP in 1933 and 32% of the U.S. GDP in 1941.</p><p>Large-scale public works expenditure has also achieved remarkable results: in terms of public works, WPA's small projects include 78,000 bridges and viaducts, and 572,000 miles of rural roads; In the first six years of its establishment, PWA completed about 1.14 street and highway projects, totaling 37,000 miles [2]. By the eve of World War II, the United States had built nearly 1,000 airports, more than 12,000 sports fields, and more than 800 school buildings and hospitals. In terms of employment, WPA alone provided jobs for about eight million people in 1935-1943.</p><p>2. Eisenhower: Interstate Highway</p><p>In the 1950s, Eisenhower advocated the construction of an interstate highway system in the United States. In 1956, he signed the Federal Aid Highway Act, obtaining a $25 billion authorization to build 41,000 miles of interstate highways over a decade, which would be paid by tax revenue such as the gas tax deposited into the Federal Highway Trust Fund, with the federal government providing about 90% of the total expenditure and the remaining 10% being paid by the states. The cost of building interstate highways was about 5.6% of U.S. GDP in 1956.</p><p>3. Clinton: Information Superhighway Plan</p><p>In 1992, US presidential candidate Clinton proposed to build an information superhighway during the election campaign. After Clinton took office in 1993, the information superhighway plan was officially implemented. The planned investment is US $400 billion over 20 years, and telecommunications optical cables will be gradually laid to all household users. In 1994, the U.S. government put forward the initiative of building a global information infrastructure, aiming at connecting the global information network through satellite communications and telecommunications optical cables to form a competitive mechanism for information sharing [3]. The total investment in the information superhighway plan accounted for 5.8% of the GDP of the United States in 1993.</p><p>4. Obama: ARRA fiscal stimulus bill</p><p>After the financial crisis, Obama signed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), a fiscal stimulus bill, in February 2009, with an initial total scale of $787 billion. In 2015, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the total expenditure would be about $840 billion, of which about 120 billion was used for infrastructure projects, including 48 billion for transportation and public transportation projects, 31 billion for modernization of federal buildings, 31 billion for modernization of school facilities and scientific facilities, 6 billion for water conservancy projects and 5 billion for housing climate renovation projects. The infrastructure expenditure of the ARRA Act accounted for only 0.8% of GDP in 2009.</p><p>(3) Specific measures for Biden's infrastructure plan?</p><p>1. Three key points of infrastructure plan</p><p>The plan to build modern, sustainable infrastructure and a fair and clean energy future proposed on Biden's campaign website spans 10 years and has a total scale of US $2 trillion, accounting for approximately 9.3% of GDP in 2019; If we only look at infrastructure expenditure, it is about US $1.3 trillion, accounting for about 6.1% of GDP in 2019. The plan announced on the campaign website has two characteristics:</p><p>First, the content is very extensive. The plan is not limited to traditional infrastructure and clean energy investment, but also includes new infrastructure such as smart cities and broadband, automobile industry development, building renovation and affordable housing construction, sustainable agriculture, manufacturing revitalization and small and medium-sized enterprise development, community equality and development and other fields.</p><p>Second, promoting employment and rebuilding the middle class are the highlights. It can be said that increasing employment and rebuilding the middle class is a major purpose of Biden's infrastructure development. In Biden's vision, the plan can significantly create new jobs. For example, investment in infrastructure will create millions of jobs, investment in the automobile industry will create 1 million jobs, investment in the power sector will create millions of jobs, investment in construction and housing will create 1 million high-paying jobs, agricultural protection will create 250,000 jobs, etc.</p><p>Third, keep manufacturing in the United States. Preventing the relocation of manufacturing industries is inherently consistent with the need to create jobs. This statement has been mentioned many times in the plan, such as: ensuring that automobile manufacturers are encouraged to build or restructure complete vehicle or parts factories in China; Invest in battery technology but ensure that battery production takes place domestically, etc.</p><p>In addition, it is worth noting that the specific investment amount in various fields in the infrastructure plan is still unclear, and only a few projects have proposed clear investment amounts. Because the brief introduction of the plan is very rough and there is no very detailed expenditure plan, the investment amount is only proposed in a few projects, such as: increasing federal procurement by $400 billion during the first term (the specific procurement plan is not specified); $100 billion to improve public school buildings; In his first year in office, he invested $50 billion in repairing highways, highways and bridges; Invest $20 billion in rural broadband infrastructure and provide $60 billion in funding to expand broadband access in rural areas; Invest an additional $10 billion over 10 years to support transportation projects in low-income areas; The $40 billion, 10-year transformation project fund is used to fund major infrastructure projects and so on. If the investment quota is explicitly mentioned in the introduction of the plan, the total amount is only over 800 billion dollars.</p><p>2. Not only infrastructure, but the plan covers eight major areas</p><p>Overall, Biden's infrastructure plan is not limited to the field of infrastructure, but covers a very wide range of areas, covering modern infrastructure, automobile industry development, clean power investment, building renovation and housing construction, clean energy investment, sustainable agriculture, and community equality There are eight major areas of development and manufacturing revitalization (the following is an introduction, see the appendix for details).</p><p>First, build modern infrastructure facilities.</p><p>1) Road repair and construction. In the first year of his administration, he invested $50 billion in repairing highways, roads and bridges, and investing in transportation in remote areas. 2) The second railway revolution. Invest heavily in high-speed rail, improve the passenger and freight railway system, promote the electrification of the railway system, and reduce diesel emissions. 3) Vigorously develop public transportation. By 2030, build a high-quality public transport system in cities with a population of more than 100,000. Invest an additional $10 billion over 10 years to support transportation projects in low-income areas. 4) Improve the airport. Double funding for airport improvement programs, competitive grants for major airport renovation projects, full implementation of next-generation aviation technology systems, etc. 5) Invest heavily in freight infrastructure, including inland waterways, freight corridors, freight railways, transit facilities and ports. Increase the BUILD and INFRA transportation infrastructure grant project grants from 1.8 billion to 3.5 billion per year; Add 2.5 billion annual funding for the Army Corps of Engineers to promote lock modernization on inland waterways; Support port infrastructure. 6) Water conservancy infrastructure construction. Replace aging pipes, double federal investment in clean drinking water and water infrastructure, monitor lead and other pollutants in water systems, and hold polluting enterprises accountable. Invest in water technology research and development and call on private sector innovation. 7) New infrastructure projects: smart city construction. Help 5 cities pilot new planning strategies and smart city technologies with $1 billion a year. Invest in broadband networks. Invest $20 billion to build rural broadband infrastructure, 60 billion to expand broadband access in rural areas, increase the number of broadband providers participating, etc. 8) Establish a transformation project fund. Set up a $40 billion, 10-year transformation project fund to provide assistance for huge and complex infrastructure projects.</p><p>Second, make the U.S. auto industry lead the world this century and accelerate the transition to low-carbon and carbon-free vehicles.</p><p>1) Demand side: Restore full tax credits for electric vehicles, use federal procurement to increase demand for clean vehicles, and accelerate the upgrade of 3 million government system vehicles. Set a goal of all new U.S.-made buses being zero-emissions by 2030, converting 500,000 school buses nationwide into zero-emission vehicles. 2) Encourage automobile manufacturers to build or restructure complete vehicle or parts factories in China. 3) Invest $5 billion in battery and energy storage technology over five years, while ensuring battery production takes place domestically. 4) Establish a national charging system of 500,000 public charging outlets, with an additional $1 billion in annual funding to ensure that charging stations are installed by certified technicians. 5) Convene the U.S. Department of Energy and Transportation to coordinate special demonstration projects to provide grants to municipalities and counties willing to pilot new charging infrastructure. 6) Establish fuel economy standards and reduce air pollution.</p><p>Third, clean power investment: achieve carbon-free power generation by 2035.</p><p>1) Develop clean electricity and achieve carbon-free power generation by 2035. 2) Vigorously develop the power grid, promote market reform, and expand the regional power market. 3) Establish Energy Efficiency and Clean Electricity Standards (EECES) for utilities and grid operators; 4) Upgrade transmission lines to support larger regional electricity markets and promote large-scale energy storage demonstration projects. 5) Research investments and tax incentives for technologies that capture carbon, permanently sequestrate and utilize captured carbon will be doubled.</p><p>Fourth, building renovation to improve building energy efficiency.</p><p>1) Promote school modernization. Invest $100 billion to improve public school buildings and upgrade childcare and early learning facilities across the country. 2) Building energy-saving renovation. Upgrade 4 million commercial buildings and carry out energy-saving renovations for 2 million households within 4 years. Promote the electrification of the construction industry and increase investment in key technologies such as energy-saving renovation projects of low-income houses and electric heat pumps; Building net-zero carbon federal buildings, etc. 3) Halve the carbon footprint of U.S. building stock by 2035. 4) Promote the construction of 1.5 million public housing units and inject more funds into low-income communities to promote the construction of affordable housing and the development of small businesses.</p><p>Fifth, make historic investments in clean energy innovation.</p><p>1) Increase federal procurement by $400 billion during the first term, with one focus on the purchase of key clean energy inputs such as batteries and electric vehicles. 2) Focus on strategic research areas such as clean energy, clean transportation, clean industrial processes and clean materials in the next 4 years. 3) Strengthen and build key clean energy supply chains in the United States, solve issues such as dependence on rare earth minerals, and accelerate innovation in supply chain resilience. 4) Invest heavily in national laboratories, high-performance computing capability facilities, and other critical infrastructure.</p><p>Sixth, invest in sustainable agriculture and environmental conservation.</p><p>1) Call on and mobilize a new generation of Americans to devote themselves to protecting the environment and tackling climate change through civil climate organizations. 2) Make upfront investments to clean up environmental damage and impacts caused by previous resource extraction. 3) Maintaining farms and ranches in America. Provide low-cost funding for farmers to transition to new equipment and methods, fund research and development of precision agriculture and new crops, and establish voluntary carbon farming markets; Pursue pro-worker and pro-family farmer trade policies; Strengthening food supply security and resilience; Ensure fair competition among small and medium-sized farms, etc.</p><p>Seventh, community equality and development.</p><p>1) $5 billion annually to expand the new market tax credit and make the program permanent; 2) Double funding for the Community Development Financial Institutions Fund to support financial institutions in low-income areas. 3) Establish a $10 billion Urban Revitalization Fund to carry out creative revitalization projects in struggling cities. 4) Funding anchor institutions in poor areas (referring to hospitals, colleges and universities, and government administrative institutions, etc.). 5) Fully implement the 10-20-30 program (allocating 10% of all federal programs to counties where 20% or more of the population has lived below the poverty line in the past 30 years).</p><p>Eighth, revitalize the manufacturing industry and small and medium-sized enterprises across the country.</p><p>1) Revitalize the manufacturing industry. Quadruple funding for the Manufacturing Expansion Partnership program to provide technical support for small manufacturers in global competition; Developing low-carbon manufacturing in every state; Use tax credits and subsidies to help businesses upgrade equipment and processes, invest in expanded or new factories, and deploy low-carbon technologies; Providing funding for more competitive or low-carbon manufacturing, etc. 2) Promote the development of small and medium-sized enterprises. Extend the National Small Business Credit Initiative program until 2025, and increase federal funding to $3 billion; Provide $5 billion to states to develop policies that encourage small business entrepreneurship, such as supporting technology transfer from public universities to the private sector.</p><p>(4) What is the impact of Biden's infrastructure construction on the US economy?</p><p>How to assess the impact of infrastructure expenditure on the economy? We can learn from the past evaluation results of infrastructure effects by American academic circles and think tanks: 1) A study by the University of Maryland in 2014 showed that every dollar spent on public transportation infrastructure investment will increase GDP growth by about $3. During the economic recession The impact is greater. 2) According to a 2014 University of Chicago report, an $83 billion infrastructure investment plan-equivalent to roughly 0.6% of GDP-would create 1.7 million jobs in the first three years. 3) According to estimates by global consulting firm McKinsey, every 1 percentage point of GDP increase in U.S. infrastructure spending will add 1.5 million jobs to the economy. 4) The Economic Policy Institute estimates that the return on infrastructure investment is high. A review of dozens of infrastructure studies shows that every $100 spent … will increase private sector output by $13 (median) and $17 (average), respectively, in the long run. 5) According to the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) 's assessment of Obama's ARRA bill, the output multiplier of infrastructure category is between 0.4-2.2.</p><p>We can learn from the evaluation results of infrastructure effects by American academic circles and think tanks to roughly estimate the overall impact of Biden's infrastructure plan on the U.S. economy and employment.</p><p>1) Impact on GDP: In Biden's infrastructure plan, the determined infrastructure expenditure is approximately US $1.3 trillion, the investment cycle is 10 years, and the average annual expenditure is approximately US $130 billion, accounting for approximately 0.6% of GDP in 2019. Based on the output multiplier of 0.4-3 (combined with the output multiplier estimated by the University of Maryland and CBO), in the next ten years, the annual additional output contribution to GDP will be approximately US $52 billion to US $390 billion, which is approximately 0.2% to 1.8% of nominal GDP in 2019.</p><p>2) Impact on employment: According to the employment impact estimate of the University of Chicago, infrastructure spending of 1.3 trillion yuan will create more than 2 million jobs per year in the next decade. According to McKinsey's assessment, it is estimated that about 10 million jobs will be created in the next decade. The employment impact of the Biden team in the plan brief is estimated to drive more than 10 million jobs. Taken together, Biden's reconstruction plan may create more than 10 million jobs in the United States in the next ten years.</p><p>3) Bank of America estimated in a report that Biden's $2 trillion infrastructure plan could lead to GDP growth of 2% to 9% in the short term and significant GDP growth in the long term, and that every 1% increase in U.S. GDP growth will lead to an increase of about 3% to 4% in S&P 500 company earnings [4].</p><p>2. Biden's tax increase: how?</p><p>Similarly, we understand Biden's tax increase from four questions. First, is Biden sure to raise taxes? What is the purpose of the tax increase? Second, is there a precedent for tax increases in American history? Third, how does Biden plan to raise taxes? Fourth, what impact will tax increases have on the US economy?</p><p>(1) Is Biden sure to raise taxes? What is the purpose?</p><p>Is Biden going to raise taxes? The tax increase should be yes. First, Biden clearly proposed a tax increase plan during the campaign. This is one of his campaign slogans and will most likely be fulfilled. Second, it is written on Biden's campaign website that as much as $1.3 trillion in investment in infrastructure will all be funded by ensuring that the super-rich and corporations pay their fair (tax) share. Third, Treasury Secretary Yellen has said that part of the spending on the next bill (referring to Biden's Reconstruction Plan bill) will be raised by tax increases.</p><p>Biden's tax increase has three purposes: first, to raise funds for the reconstruction plan, second, to fulfill campaign promises, third, to promote tax fairness through tax adjustments, and to adjust the gap between the rich and the poor through secondary distribution. From the adjustment of the tax system, it can be clearly seen that the tax burden pressure of the rich, high-income class and enterprises has increased, while the tax credit of low-and middle-income people has obviously expanded.</p><p>(2) Is there a precedent for tax increase?</p><p>Before 1950, the highest marginal tax rates of personal income tax and corporate income tax in the United States showed a gradual upward trend. During this period, the main reason for tax increase was to raise funds for war. During World War I and World War II, the highest marginal tax rates of personal income tax and corporate income tax rose sharply. Since the 1950s, the highest marginal tax rates of personal income tax and corporate income tax in the United States have shown a gradual downward trend as a whole, with many periods of tax reduction and few periods of tax increase.</p><p>Since 1950, there have been five major tax cuts: Kennedy's tax cut in 1963, Carter's tax cut in 1979, Reagan's tax cut in 1980s, George W. Bush's tax cut in 2001, and Trump's tax cut in 2017.</p><p>The most obvious tax increases since 1950 have been three times.</p><p>The first time was in the late 1960s, and the main reason for the tax increase was war factors. From 1968 to 1970, in order to cope with the expenditure of the Vietnam War, the United States imposed a Vietnam War surtax, which was abolished after 1970.</p><p>The second time was in 1990, in order to cope with the sharp increase in social public expenditure such as defense and medical care, George H.W. Bush passed the Monitoring Budget Mediation Act of 1990 in 1990, which raised the highest marginal tax rate of personal income tax from 28% to 31%.</p><p>The third time was Clinton's tax increase in 1993, and this time it was also the largest and largest tax increase in the United States since 1950. In order to reduce the fiscal deficit, Clinton proposed a tax increase plan in 1993, increasing the maximum marginal tax rate of personal income tax from 31% to 39.6% and the maximum marginal tax rate of corporate income tax from 34% to 35%. It is worth noting that the increase in the highest marginal tax rate of personal income tax from 35% to 39.6% in 2012 was not caused by the tax increase, but because George W. Bush's tax reduction period had expired, and the tax rate automatically returned to the level before the tax reduction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/059fc482c64a72c92006019e12fd347f\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a271519721bfe2d2e70b5c022a30421\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(3) How does Biden plan to increase taxes?</p><p>Biden's tax increase is mainly in two aspects:<b>First, the payroll tax, income tax, capital gains tax and inheritance tax of high-income groups; second, the corporate income tax rate is re-raised and some corporate taxes are adjusted.</b>It can be seen from the specific details of the following clauses that Biden's tax increase targets are very clear, that is, wealthy groups and enterprises, and the tax incentives and credits for the middle and lower classes of society have actually increased.</p><p>1. Adjustment of individual tax system: the tax burden of the rich increases, while the burden of the middle and lower classes reduces</p><p>1) A 12.4% Social Security payroll tax is imposed on people earning more than $400,000 a year, which is equally divided between employers and employees. Under the advance tax law, individuals earning more than 137,700 per year are not required to pay Social Security payroll taxes.</p><p>2) Increase the maximum individual income tax rate for taxable income exceeding $400,000 to 39.6% from 37% as stipulated by current law; For groups with an annual income of more than $400,000, even if there are tax incentives for itemized deductions, their personal income tax rate shall not be less than 28%; Restore the Pease limit on deductions for items with taxable income exceeding $400,000; Phase out the qualifying business income deduction for groups with taxable income over $400,000.</p><p>3) Taxes long-term capital gains and qualified Dividend income above $1 million at the ordinary income tax rate of 39.6%, eliminating the progressiveness of capital gains tax.</p><p>4) Tax credits: Expand the earned income tax credit for childless employees over 65 to provide renewable energy-related tax credits for individuals; Expand the Child and Dependent Tax Credit (CDCTC) from a maximum of $3,000 to $8,000 ($16,000 for multiple dependents) and increase the maximum reimbursement rate from 35% to 50%. In 2021, increase the Child Tax Credit (CTC) for children 17 and under from a maximum of $2,000 to $3,000, while providing an additional $600 credit for children under 6 that the CTC will refund in full. It is worth mentioning that measures regarding CTC have been implemented in the 1.9 trillion relief package; Rebuild the first-time homebuyer tax credit policy with a $15,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers.</p><p>5) Restore the rates and allowances for estate and gift taxes to 2009 levels. After Trump's tax reform in 2017, the inheritance and gift tax exemption for 2018-2025 was increased from 5 million to 10 million per person, and the tax rate was still set at 40%. If it returns to 2009 levels, the tax allowance will be reduced from the current 10 million to 3.5 million, and the tax rate will be increased from 40% to 45%.</p><p>6) Other adjustment items that lack clear information: replacing traditional deductions by providing refundable tax credits to balance the tax benefits of traditional retirement accounts (such as 401 (k) s and IRAs); Elimination of certain provisions of real estate taxes; Expanding the Affordable Care Act's premium tax credit; Create refundable tenant tax credits and provide credits of up to $5 billion per year, designed to keep rent and utility bills below 30% of a tenant's monthly income; Increase the amount of housing tax credit for low-income people.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee544b934d79e80772ee93dede7fba86\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"583\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c55ac12a24c96f38ba548d45117f82cb\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2. Corporate tax system adjustment: the tax burden increases, but the manufacturing industry is encouraged to return</p><p>1) Increase the corporate income tax rate from 21% to 28%.</p><p>2) Impose a minimum tax on companies with book profits exceeding $100 million. The minimum tax is an alternative tax-businesses will pay the higher of regular corporate income tax or the 15% minimum tax, still allowing net operating loss (NOL) and foreign tax credits.</p><p>3) Double the Global Intangible Low Tax Income tax rate for overseas subsidiaries of U.S. companies from 10.5% to 21%. A sub-country assessment of GILTI for overseas subsidiaries is proposed, removing the provision that treats GILTI less than 10% of the qualified business asset investment (QBAI) as a return exemption.</p><p>Before the tax reform in 2017, the United States generally taxed the global income of its companies and residents, and American companies could apply to postpone taxation of the active business income of overseas subsidiaries until the income was repatriated to the United States as Dividend. After the tax reform, the United States exempted the gains from the active business of overseas subsidiaries of American companies from being taxed even if these gains were repatriated (but still taxed the passive investment income of foreign subsidiaries). The U.S. Congress, concerned that the full exemption of overseas income of multinational companies could exacerbate its practice of shifting profits to overseas low-tax jurisdictions, has set a minimum tax rate of 10.5% on low-tax income from intangible assets worldwide to discourage profit shifting. GILTI refers to the revenue generated by intangible assets such as patents, trademarks, and copyrights. Intangible assets are highly moveable, and this tax rate seeks to discourage U.S. companies from moving intangible assets overseas.</p><p>4) Tax credits: Establish a manufacturing tax credit; Expand and make permanent tax credits in new markets; Tax credits for small businesses that adopt workplace retirement savings plans; Expand tax credits related to renewable energy, including those for carbon capture, use and storage and those for residential energy efficiency, and reinstate the Energy Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and EV tax credit, ending tax subsidies for fossil fuels.</p><p>5) Other adjustment items that lack clear information: Impose a 10% surtax on companies that move manufacturing and service jobs abroad in order to sell products or provide services to the U.S. market. Provides a preferred 10% Made in America tax credit for activities that resume production, revitalize facilities that have closed or are about to close, restructure facilities to promote manufacturing employment or expand manufacturing wages.</p><p>(4) The impact of Biden's tax increase on the U.S. economy</p><p>The impact of tax increases on the economy is relatively complex. We mainly draw on the assessment of overseas think tanks to roughly understand the impact of Biden's tax increases on the U.S. economy.<b>As far as economic growth is concerned, both the Tax Foundation and the Tax Policy Center estimate that tax increases will have a negative impact on economic growth in the next decade, which will reduce GDP by 1.62% to 3.4% in the next decade. In terms of tax revenue, the Tax Foundation believes tax increases could raise about 2.8 trillion in tax revenue over the next decade, while the Tax Policy Center estimates that tax increases will reduce federal revenue by $161 billion over the next decade (about 8% of total revenue over those 10 years).</b>In addition, the Tax Foundation predicts that the tax increase will reduce the wage level, lose jobs, narrow the income gap, but reduce the overall after-tax income of residents.</p><p>1. Estimates from the Tax Foundation</p><p>1) Impact on fiscal revenue: Biden's tax plan will raise approximately $2.8 trillion over the next 10 years. 2) Economic impact: In the next decade, it will reduce GDP by a total of 1.62%, GNP by a total of 1.83%, capital stock by 3.75%, long-term average wages by 1.15%, and 542,000 jobs will be lost. 3) The impact of income distribution: Biden's tax plan will reduce the after-tax income of the richest 1% of taxpayers by about 7.7% by 2030, and the average after-tax income of all taxpayers will drop by 1.9%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92310243b616c89248067f2f1a18ffc3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Tax Policy Center (TaxPolicy Center)</p><p>1) Economic impact: The U.S. GDP will decrease by a total of 3.4% in the next ten years. The impact on GDP will turn positive in 2040. In the years after 2040, the positive impact will gradually increase. 2) Revenue impact: It will reduce U.S. federal revenue by $161 billion from 2021 to 2030 (approximately 8% of total revenue for those 10 years) and by $90 billion from 2031 to 2040. By 2040, the impact of the tax plan on federal revenue will turn positive, and its positive effect will gradually increase in the subsequent years of 2040.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b75c8d26db2d05446f6e6db4dec6a9a\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0a76e285bdc0d17be49c9ec0fbade5\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>3. Key time points: When may the formal reconstruction plan be launched?</p><p>At present, the Biden team has not announced the formal plan and investment details. To track Biden's reconstruction plan in the future, there are two key time points worthy of attention:</p><p><b>The first key time point: April-May this year.</b></p><p>When Biden first proposed the U.S. relief plan on January 14 this year, he made it clear: Next month, when I attend my first joint session of Congress, I will propose my 'Recovery Plan for a Better Future' [5]. Under normal circumstances, Biden's reconstruction plan should have been formally proposed in February, but the epidemic is the top priority. On February 11, House Speaker Pelosi said that we will not do anything until we pass the COVID-19 pandemic relief bill.</p><p>When will the joint session of Congress be held? That's the key. On March 24, White House spokesperson Psaki said that there is no time set yet … We are certainly still interested in committing to a joint meeting. We will be in touch with them, but I don't know exactly when. Historically, presidents have attended and delivered speeches to joint sessions of Congress no later than February. It is now expected overseas that Biden will officially attend the joint session of Congress [6] in April, when he will introduce the reconstruction plan to lawmakers. According to Goldman Sachs, the White House may submit a detailed budget plan to Congress in May. According to the statement of the top Democratic Party, it is hoped that the infrastructure plan will pass the committees under the Senate and the House of Representatives in May. Therefore, we expect that the total scale of the reconstruction plan and the specific project details will most likely be announced in April-May.</p><p><b>The second critical time point: October.</b></p><p>The launch and implementation of Biden's reconstruction plan requires the approval of the U.S. Congress. At present, the Democratic Party controls the House of Representatives and can easily pass bills in the House of Representatives. But the Democratic Party has only a slight advantage in the Senate, with only one more vote than the Republican Party, and can't bypass the Senate filibuster (60 votes required). There are only two ways for Biden's reconstruction plan to pass the Senate. First, on the premise of ensuring the consent of all Democratic senators, win the support of at least 10 Republican senators. The second is to start the budget reconciliation process again, which is consistent with the congressional process of the 1.9 trillion U.S. relief plan, and only 51 votes are needed to pass the Senate.</p><p>Judging from the current attitude of the top Republican Senate, the feasibility of the first method is very low. Senate Republican leader McConnell said on Monday: We have heard that the so-called infrastructure bill may be proposed in the next few months. In fact, it may be a Trojan horse hiding substantial tax increases and other left-wing policies that harm jobs.</p><p>If Biden's reconstruction plan is to be implemented, the most likely thing is to start the budget reconciliation process. The U.S. fiscal year is from October to September of the following year, and the budget reconciliation process can generally only be used once a fiscal year (originally, the three areas of revenue, expenditure and deficit have an opportunity to start the budget reconciliation process every fiscal year, but the bill generally involves more than one area, basically all three areas will be covered. According to historical experience, the budget reconciliation process is also at most once a fiscal year). This year's 1.9 trillion U.S. relief plan has already used the quota of fiscal year 2021. October is the second critical point in time. First, by October, the Democratic Party can activate the budget reconciliation process again. Second, judging from the statements of Democratic lawmakers, they hope to quickly pass the reconstruction plan bill. For example, House Speaker Pelosi hopes that Congress will take quick action to formulate a transformative infrastructure plan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b55345e7966f98cb44655e2ee1d5f0ea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Appendix IV: Detailed Contents of Biden's Reconstruction Plan</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aeb3bd2d6946393ea99fee60d03300f\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/118a22c23672c23b7ffdaff2e00b0f9b\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fd4d7b6dfaec3e2161aa5abc88d706f\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee04e29c93d385e9e3f0123b9a2a6941\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a302cf76ac1ec43059d2ec6818aa587\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/wHg1mjYamSNUdcMzJvj0VA\"> 一瑜中的</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff7dc206228e5f0b17e2120c141f32db","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/wHg1mjYamSNUdcMzJvj0VA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170764582","content_text":"作者：张瑜 付春生主要观点1.9万亿美元救济落地后，关于拜登基建计划的讨论热度迅速升温。由于计划目前尚未正式公布，本篇报告以拜登在竞选时提出的基建计划和加税计划作为蓝本，从四个角度（必要性、历史比较、具体措施、影响）去理解拜登的基建和加税，以期对未来正式的重建计划的措施和影响进行大致摸底。拜登基建：怎么建？一、美国目前有没有必要大兴基建？非常有必要。首先，基础设施状况堪忧。据ASCE最新评估，美国基础设施仍「大多低于标准」，表现出较为严重的「恶化」状况。据《全球竞争力报告》，2019年美国在基础设施领域的排名居全球第13位，2002年时则居第5位。其次，存在大规模投资缺口。未来十年基建总投资缺口已经达到2.59万亿美元。最后，基建支出力度远低于主要经济体，欧洲基建支出相当于GDP的5％，中国基建支出约占GDP的8％，而美国仅为2.4％。美国主要依赖地方和州政府进行基建投资，但地方政府逐渐「力不能及」。随着基建存量不断增加，州和地方政府不得不承担更多的运营和维护成本，新增投资额自21世纪初以来一直下降。二、有无联邦政府主导基建投资的先例？从历史比较看，拜登基建是上世纪来美国第二大规模的联邦基建投资。上世纪以来，美国联邦政府主导了四轮大规模基建投资，投资力度最大的是罗斯福新政，公共工程类支出180亿美元，占1933年GDP的31%；投资力度最小的是奥巴马ARRA法案，基建类支出1200亿美元，占2009年GDP的0.8%。艾森豪威尔修建州际高速公路的耗资为250亿美元，占1956年GDP的5.6%，克林顿的信息高速公路计划总投资额4000亿，占1993年GDP的5.8%。拜登基建投资的规模大约1.3万亿美元，占2019年GDP的6.1%，是上世纪以来规模第二大的投资。三、拜登基建的具体措施有哪些？拜登竞选网站上提出的计划规模为2 万亿美元，为期10年，占2019年GDP的9.3%；其中基建投资1.3万亿美元，占2019年GDP的6.1%。计划有三个重点：1）内容十分广泛。涵盖了现代化基建、汽车工业发展、清洁电力投资、建筑改造和住房建设、清洁能源投资、可持续农业、社区平等发展和制造业振兴共八大领域。2）促进就业和重建中产阶级是「重头戏」。3）把制造业留在美国。防止制造业外迁与创造就业的需求是内在一致的。需注意的是，计划中各领域的投资额尚不明晰，只有少数项目提出了明确投资额。四、拜登基建对美国经济有何影响？1）对GDP的影响：10年里，每年基建支出约1300亿，按照产出乘数0.4-3来估计（马里兰大学和CBO的评估），每年对GDP的额外产出贡献约为520亿~3900亿美元，约为2019年名义GDP的0.2%~1.8%。2）对就业的影响：拜登的重建计划在未来十年或将给美国创造超千万的就业岗位。3）美银估计，拜登基建计划在短期内可能会带来2％至9％的GDP增长，从长期来看会使GDP「显著增长」。拜登加税：怎么加？一、拜登加税基本是确定的。三大理由：1）加税是拜登竞选口号之一，大概率将履行。2）在拜登竞选网站上明确写到， 1.3万亿基建投资将全部通过「确保超级富豪和企业支付他们公平的（税收）份额」来筹集。3）财政部长耶伦曾表示，下一个法案（拜登重建计划）的一部分支出将由加税来筹集。二、加税有先例可寻。1950年代以来，美国所得税率整体呈下降趋势，减税多，加税少。主要的加税有三次，一是1968-1970年为应对越战开支而征收的「越战附加税」。二是1990年老布什为应对赤字增长而加税。三是1993年克林顿加税，这也是1950年以来美国最大范围和规模的一次加税，其目的也是为了削减财政赤字。三、富人税负增加，中下阶层减负；企业税负增加，但鼓励制造业回流。拜登的加税对象非常明确，就是富有群体和企业，对社会中下阶层的税收优惠和抵免反而提高了。一方面，提高富裕群体的工资税、所得税、资本利得税和遗产税等，另一方面，重新上调企业所得税率，对其他一些企业税进行调整。四、拜登加税对美国经济有何影响？就经济增长而言，税务基金会和税收政策中心均预估加税会对未来十年对经济增长造成负面影响，会使未来十年GDP下降1.62%~3.4%。就税收收入而言，税务基金会认为加税在未来十年可以筹集约2.8万亿税收收入，而税收政策中心估计加税将使未来十年联邦收入减少1610亿美元（约占10年总收入的8%）。此外税务基金会预计加税将使工资水平下降、就业岗位流失，使收入差距缩小但整体居民税后收入下降。两个关键时间点：正式的重建计划可能会在什么时候推出？第一个关键时间点：今年4-5月。拜登在今年1月14日提出「美国救济计划」时曾明确说道：「在我下个月第一次出席国会联席会议时，我将提出我的‘重建更好未来的复苏计划’。」拜登的重建计划本应该在2月份就正式提出，但疫情才是第一要务，2月11日众议院议长佩洛西表示，「在我们通过新冠疫情纾困法案之前，我们不会做任何事情。」由于美国救济计划在国会遭遇阻力，直到3月14日才正式落地，因此拜登至今还未出席国会联席会议，重建计划也还没有正式提出。国会联席会议什么时候召开呢？这是关键。3月24日白宫发言人普萨基表示，目前还没有确定时间。历史上，总统出席国会联席会议并发表「在国会联席会议上的演讲」的时间最晚不超过2月份。现在海外预期拜登将在4月正式出席国会联席会议，那么届时他将向议员介绍重建计划。另据高盛预计，白宫或在5月向国会递交详细的预算方案。再根据民主党高层的表态，希望基建方案能在5月通过参众两院下属的委员会，所以我们预计，重建计划的总规模和具体的项目细节大概率将于4-5月公布。第二个关键时间点：10月。第一，10月以后民主党可再次启用「预算和解程序」。第二，民主党高层的积极表态表明其会尽可能快地推动重建计划进入国会表决或者在新财年伊始就推动重建计划再走预算和解程序。风险提示：民主党内部就重建计划产生分歧。报告目录报告正文在1.9万亿美国救济计划落地后，关于拜登重建计划（Build Back Better Recovery Plan，因其大部分措施与基建相关，国内外相关报道和报告也将之称为「拜登基建计划」）的讨论热度迅速升温。据彭博3月22日的报道，近期重建计划方案将递交给拜登，且该计划还包含了加税方案。白宫新闻秘书普萨基也在22日表示，「时间快了，所以他本周将与他的团队讨论有哪些选择，规模和范围。」根据拜登在提出救济计划时的表态，他将在第一次出席国会联席会议并发表「在国会联席会议上的演讲」时，向国会议员推介他的重建计划，所以重建计划或将在4月正式「亮相」。由于拜登的重建计划目前尚未公布，本篇报告就以拜登在竞选时提出的基建计划和加税计划作为蓝本来分析。一、拜登基建：怎么「建」？关于拜登基建，我们主要弄清楚四个问题即可。第一，美国目前有没有必要大兴基建？第二，有没有美国政府主导基建大投资的历史经验？如果有，从历史比较，拜登基建投资规模如何？第三，基建计划的具体领域和措施，到底如何建？第四，基建计划对美国经济的影响如何？（一）美国目前有必要大兴基建吗？美国目前的基础设施状况堪忧，非常有必要进行大规模投资。美国大部分的基础设施系统建成于1960年代，许多设施已经达到了最大使用期限，接近「报废」的关头。一、基础设施状况堪忧，综合评定等级较低。美国土木工程师学会（ASCE）2017年对美国基础设施的评定等级为「D+」（等级为A-F），2021年的评定等级升至「C-」。虽然评级有所好转，但也表明美国基础设施仍「大多低于标准」，表现出较为严重的「恶化」状况。从全球比较看，近二十年来美国基础设施领域的评级也在不断下降。根据世界经济论坛的《全球竞争力报告》，2019年美国在基础设施领域的排名位居全球第13位，而2002年时则位居5位，17年里下降了8个名次。二、美国目前存在大规模基建投资缺口，如果不弥补，会对经济和社会发展造成巨大负面影响。有两个评估来源：1）美国土木工程师学会（ASCE）2021年报告认为，未来十年美国基建投资总缺口已经达到2.59万亿美元，如果不弥补，到2039年美国将损失10万亿GDP，损失2.4万亿出口。2）麦肯锡2016年的研究认为，从2017年至2030年，每年需要1500亿美元的基础设施投资，才能跟上美国经济对基础设施的需求。三、美国基建支出力度远低于世界主要经济体，并且主要依赖于州和地方政府。欧洲国家在建设和维护基础设施上的支出相当于GDP的5％，中国的基础设施支出平均约占其GDP的8％，而美国仅为2.4％[1]。此外，与多数其他工业化国家的不同之处在于，美国主要依赖地方和州政府的支出来满足其基础设施的需求。大多数欧洲国家或地区在国家层面上为大部分基础设施建设提供资金，但2017年美国公共基础设施资金中只有25％来自联邦政府，这个数字远低于1977年38％的峰值，表明联邦政府在公共基建上承担的支出责任越来越少。随着美国基建存量不断增加，州和地方政府不得不承担更多的运营和维护成本，也使得基建的新增投资额从2000年代初以来一直下降。（二）历史上联邦政府进行过基建大投资吗？上世纪以来，美国经历过四次联邦政府主导的大规模基建投资，从历史比较看，拜登基建计划是上世纪以来美国第二大规模的联邦基建投资。上世纪以来美国联邦政府主导了四轮大规模基建投资，投资力度最大的是罗斯福新政，公共工程相关支出180亿美元，占1933年GDP的31%；投资力度最小的是奥巴马ARRA法案，其中基建类支出1200亿美元，占2009年GDP的0.8%。艾森豪威尔修建州际高速公路的耗资为250亿美元，约占1956年GDP的5.6%，克林顿的信息高速公路计划总投资额4000亿，占1993年GDP的5.8%。拜登竞选网站上公布的基建类支出大约为1.3万亿美元，约占2019年GDP的6.1%，是上世纪以来规模第二大的投资。1、罗斯福新政大萧条后，为了刺激就业复苏，1933年罗斯福签署《国家工业复兴法》，他认为通过广泛的的公共工程计划能直接带来就业机会。通过设立联邦经济救济署、公共工程管理局（PWA）、公共事业振兴署（WPA）等机构为美国带来了逾千万的就业。到二战前夕，联邦政府工程费用和直接救济费用支出高达180亿美元，占1933年美国GDP比重的31%，占1941年美国GDP比重的14%。如果从广义支出看，罗斯福新政的联邦支出总额为417亿美元，占1933年美国GDP比重的73%，占1941年美国GDP比重的32%。大规模公共工程支出也取得了显著成果：公共工程方面，WPA的小型项目包括了7.8万座桥梁和高架桥、57.2万英里乡村公路；而PWA在建立的前六年里即完成了约1.14个街道和公路项目，总长达3.7万英里[2]。到二战前夕，美国一共修建了近1000座飞机场、12000多个运动场、800多座校舍与医院。就业方面，仅WPA就在1935-1943年为大约八百万人提供了工作机会。2、艾森豪威尔：州际高速公路1950年代，艾森豪威尔主张修建美国州际高速公路系统。1956年，他签署了《联邦援助公路法》，获得了250亿美元的授权，用于在十年内建造4.1万英里的州际高速公路，这笔费用将由存入联邦公路信托基金的汽油税等税收收入支付，联邦政府提供约90%的总支出，其余10%由各州支付。修建州际高速公路的耗资约占1956年美国GDP的5.6%。3、克林顿：「信息高速公路计划」1992年，美国总统候选人克林顿在竞选时提出，要建设信息高速公路。1993年克林顿上台后，正式实施「信息高速公路计划」。计划投资额为4000亿美元，为期20年，逐步将电信光缆铺设到所有家庭用户。1994年，美国政府提出建设全球信息基础设施的倡议，旨在通过卫星通讯和电信光缆连通全球信息网络，形成信息共享的竞争机制[3]。信息高速公路计划总投资额占1993年美国GDP的5.8%。4、奥巴马：ARRA财政刺激法案金融危机后，奥巴马在2009年2月签署财政刺激法案《美国复苏和再投资法案（ARRA）》，初始总规模为7870亿美元，2015年国会预算办公室预计总支出大约为8400亿美元，其中大约有1200亿用于基建项目相关支出，包括：480亿用于运输和公共交通项目，310亿用于联邦建筑现代化改造，310亿用于学校设施和科学设施现代化改造，60亿用于水利项目，50亿用于房屋气候改造项目。ARRA法案的基建类支出规模占2009年GDP比重仅为0.8%。（三）拜登基建计划的具体措施？1、基建计划的三个重点拜登竞选网站上提出的「建设现代、可持续的基础设施和公平、清洁的能源未来」计划，计划跨度为期10年，总规模为 2 万亿美元，约占2019年GDP的9.3%；如果仅看基建类支出，大约为1.3万亿美元，约占2019年GDP的6.1%。竞选网站上公布的计划有两个特点：第一，内容十分广泛。计划不仅仅局限于传统的基础设施和清洁能源投资，还包括智慧城市和宽带等新基建，汽车工业发展，建筑改造和保障性住房建设，可持续农业，制造业振兴和中小企业发展，社区平等和发展等多个领域。第二，促进就业和重建中产阶级是「重头戏」。可以说，增加就业和中产阶级重建是拜登大兴基建的一大主要目的。在拜登的设想里，计划可以大幅创造新的就业岗位，比如：基建领域的投资将创造数百万个就业机会，汽车工业领域将创造100万个就业机会，电力领域的投资将创造数百万个就业岗位，建筑和住房领域投资将创造100万个高薪岗位，农业保护领域将创造25万个工作岗位等。第三，把制造业留在美国。防止制造业外迁，与创造就业的需求是内在一致的。这一说法在计划中多次被提及，比如：确保鼓励汽车制造商在国内建造或重组整车或零部件工厂；投资电池技术但要确保电池生产在国内进行等等。此外，值得说明的是，基建计划中各个领域的具体投资额尚不明晰，只有少数项目提出了明确投资额。由于该计划简介十分「粗糙」，并没有十分细致的支出计划，只在少数项目上提出了投资额，比如：在第一个任期内增加4000亿美元的联邦采购（具体采购计划没有说明）；1000亿美元改善公立学校建筑；执政第一年投入500亿美元修复高速公路、公路和桥梁；投资200亿美元建设农村宽带基础设施，提供600亿资金来扩大农村地区的宽带接入；10年内额外投入100亿美元支持低收入地区的交通项目；400亿美元、为期10年的转型项目基金用于资助重大基建项目等等。计划简介中明确提及投资额度的，零零散散加总，仅有8000多亿美元。2、不仅是基建，计划覆盖八大领域整体来看，拜登的基建计划不仅仅是局限在「基建领域」，覆盖面非常广泛，涵盖了现代化基建、汽车工业发展、清洁电力投资、建筑改造和住房建设、清洁能源投资、可持续农业、社区平等发展和制造业振兴共八大领域（下文是简介，详情参见附录）。第一，构建现代化的基建设施。1）道路修复和建设。执政第一年投入500亿美元用于修复高速公路、道路和桥梁，对边远地区进行交通投资等。2）第二次铁路革命。大力投资高铁，完善客运和货运铁路体系，推动铁路系统电气化，减少柴油排放。3）大力发展公共交通。到2030年，在超过10万人口的城市构建高质量的公共交通系统。在10年内额外投入100亿美元支持低收入地区的交通项目。4）改进机场。为机场改善计划提供双倍资金，为主要机场改造项目提供竞争性赠款，全面实施下一代航空技术系统等。5）大力投资货运基础设施，包括内河航道、货运走廊、货运铁路、中转设施和港口。把BUILD和INFRA交通基建赠款项目赠款从每年18亿提高至35亿；每年为陆军工程兵团增加25亿资金，推动内陆水道的船闸现代化；支持港口基础设施。6）水利基础设施建设。更换老化管道，把联邦对清洁饮用水和水基础设施的投资增加一倍，监测供水系统中铅和其他污染物，追究污染企业的责任。投资水技术研发，号召私人部门创新。7）新基建项目：智能城市建设。每年用10亿美元帮助5个城市试行新的规划战略和智慧城市技术。投资宽带网络。投资200亿美元建设农村宽带基础设施， 600亿资金来扩大农村地区的宽带接入，增加宽带提供商的参与数量等。8）建立转型项目基金。设立一个400亿美元、为期10年的转型项目基金，为庞大复杂的基建项目提供援助。第二，使美国汽车业在本世纪领先全球，加快向低碳和无碳汽车过渡。1）需求方面：恢复电动汽车全额税收抵免，利用联邦采购增加清洁汽车的需求，加速300万辆政府系统汽车的升级换代。设定到2030年所有美国制造的新巴士都实现零排放的目标，将全国50万辆校车转化为零排放汽车。2）鼓励汽车制造商在国内建造或重组整车或零部件工厂。3）五年内在电池和储能技术方面投资50亿美元，同时确保电池生产在国内进行。4）建立一个由50万个公共充电网点组成的全国充电系统，每年额外提供10亿美元资金以确保充电站由经过认证的技术人员安装。5）召集美国能源和交通部协调特别示范项目，向愿意试行新型充电基础设施的市镇和县提供赠款。6）制定燃油经济性标准，减少空气污染。第三，清洁电力投资：2035年实现无碳发电。1）发展清洁电力，到2035年实现无碳发电。2）大力发展电网，推动市场改革，扩大区域电力市场。3）为公用事业和电网运营商建立能源效率和清洁电力标准（ EECES ）；4）升级输电线路以支持更大的区域电力市场，推进大规模储能示范项目。5）将加倍提高对捕获碳、永久封存和利用捕获碳的技术的研究投资和税收优惠。第四，建筑改造，提高建筑能效。1）推动学校现代化。投资1000亿美元改善公立学校建筑，升级全国各地的儿童保育和早期学习设施。2）建筑节能改造。在4年内升级400万栋商业建筑，对200万户家庭进行房屋节能改造。推动建筑行业电气化，加大对低收入房屋节能改造项目和电热泵等关键技术的投资；建造净零碳联邦建筑等。3）2035年美国建筑存量碳足迹减少一半。4）推动建设150万套公共住房，向低收入社区注入更多资金以促进经济适用房的建设和小企业的发展。第五，对清洁能源创新进行历史性投资。1）在第一个任期内增加4000亿美元的联邦采购，其中一个重点是购买电池和电动汽车等关键的清洁能源投入。2）未来4年内专注于清洁能源、清洁交通、清洁工业流程和清洁材料等战略研究领域。3）加强和建设美国关键的清洁能源供应链，解决对稀土矿物的依赖等问题，加快供应链弹性方面的创新。4）大力投资国家实验室、高性能计算能力设施以及其他关键基础设施。第六，投资于可持续农业和环境养护。1）通过民间气候组织号召和动员新一代美国人投入到保护环境和应对气候变化的工作中。2）进行前期投资，以清理以往资源开采对环境造成的破坏和影响。3）维护美国的农场和牧场。为农民向新设备和新方法过渡提供低成本资金，资助精密农业和新作物的研究开发，建立自愿碳农业市场；追求亲工人和亲家庭的农民贸易政策；加强粮食供应的安全性和恢复能力；确保中小型农场的竞争公平等。第七，社区平等和发展。1）每年提供50亿美元，扩大新市场税收抵免并使该计划永久化；2）为社区发展金融机构基金提供双倍资金，支持低收入地区的金融机构。3）设立100亿美元的城市振兴基金，在陷入困境的城市开展创造性的振兴项目。4）资助贫困地区的锚定机构（指医院、学院和大学以及政府行政机构等）。5）全面实施「10-20-30计划（在所有联邦项目中，将10%的资金分配给过去30年有20%或以上的人口生活在贫困线以下的县）」。第八，振兴全国的制造业和中小企业。1）振兴制造业。将制造业扩展伙伴项目的资金提高四倍，为小型制造商在全球竞争中提供技术支持；在每个州发展低碳制造业；利用税收抵免和补贴帮助企业升级设备和流程、投资扩建或新建工厂、部署低碳技术；为更具竞争力或低碳的制造业提供资金等。2）推动中小企业发展。把国家小企业信贷倡议计划延长到2025年，联邦拨款增加至30亿美元；向各州提供50亿美元资金，制定鼓励小企业创业的政策，比如支持从公立大学向私营部门转让技术。（四）拜登基建对美国经济的影响？基建类支出对经济的影响如何评估？可以借鉴过往美国学界和智库对基建效果的评估结果：1）2014年马里兰大学的一项研究表明，公共交通基础设施投资每花费1美元，就会使得GDP增长增加约3美元，在经济衰退期间产生的影响更大。2）根据2014年芝加哥大学的报告，一项830亿美元的基础设施投资计划——大约相当于国内生产总值的0.6%——将在头三年创造170万个就业机会。3）根据全球咨询公司麦肯锡的估计，美国基础设施支出每增加1个百分点的GDP，将为经济增加150万个就业机会。4）经济政策研究所估计，础设施投资的回报率很高。对数十项基础设施研究进行回顾，每支出100美元……从长期来看，将使私营部门的产出分别提高13美元（中位数）和17美元（平均值）。5）据美国国会预算办公室（CBO）对奥巴马ARRA法案的评估，基建类的产出乘数在0.4-2.2之间。可借鉴美国学界和智库对基建效果的评估结果，从整体上大概估算拜登基建计划对美国经济和就业的影响。1）对GDP的影响：拜登基建计划中，确定的基建类支出大约是1.3万亿美元，投资周期10年，平均每年的支出约为1300亿，约占2019年GDP比重的0.6%，按照产出乘数0.4-3来估计（结合马里兰大学和CBO估计的产出乘数），未来十年，每年对GDP的额外产出贡献约为520亿~3900亿美元，约为2019年名义GDP的0.2%~1.8%。2）对就业的影响：根据芝加哥大学的就业影响估计，1.3万亿的基建类支出未来十年将每年创造逾200万个工作岗位。根据麦肯锡的评估结果估计，未来十年将带动约1000万的就业。拜登团队在计划简介中的就业影响估计是带动超1000万个就业。综合来看，拜登的重建计划在未来十年或将给美国创造超千万的就业岗位。3）美国银行在一份报告中估计，拜登的2万亿美元的基础设施计划在短期内可能会带来2％至9％的GDP增长，从长期来看会使GDP「显著增长」，并且美国GDP增长每增加1％，将带来标准普尔500公司收益的3％到4％左右的增长[4]。二、拜登加税：怎么加？同样的，我们从四个问题来理解拜登加税。第一，拜登是不是确定要加税，加税的目的是什么？第二，加税在美国历史上有先例吗？第三，拜登打算怎么加税？第四，加税对美国经济有何影响？（一）拜登确定要加税？目的何在？拜登是否要加税？加税应该是肯定的。第一，拜登在竞选时曾明确提出加税计划，这是其竞选口号之一，大概率将履行。第二，在拜登的竞选网站上写到，基础设施领域多达1.3万亿美元的投资，将全部通过「确保超级富豪和企业支付他们公平的（税收）份额」来筹集资金。第三，财政部长耶伦曾表示，下一个法案（指拜登的重建计划法案）的一部分支出将由加税来筹集。拜登加税的三个目的：一是为重建计划筹集资金，二是兑现竞选承诺，三是通过税制调整以促进税收公平，通过二次分配来调节贫富差距。从税制调整中可以很明显地看出，富人和高收入阶层、企业的税负压力增大，而中低收入者的税收抵免则明显扩大。（二）加税有先例可寻吗？在1950年以前，美国个人所得税和企业所得税最高边际税率均呈逐渐上升趋势，这一时期，加税的主要原因是为战争筹资，在一战和二战期间，个人所得税和企业所得税最高边际税率大幅上升。从1950年代以来，美国个人所得税和企业所得税最高边际税率整体呈逐渐下降趋势，减税时期多，加税时期极少。1950年以来，主要的减税有五次： 1963年肯尼迪减税、1979年卡特减税、1980年代里根减税、2001年小布什减税、2017年特朗普减税。而1950年以来的加税，最明显的有三次。第一次是1960年代后期，加税的主要原因还是战争因素，从1968年-1970年，为了应对越南战争的开支，美国征收了「越战附加税」，1970年以后取消。第二次是1990年老布什为了应对国防和医疗等社会公共开支大幅上升带来赤字增加，在1990年通过《1990年监察预算调解法案》，将个人所得税最高边际税率从28%提高至31%。第三次是1993年克林顿加税，这一次也是1950年以来美国最大范围和规模的一次加税。为了削减财政赤字，克林顿在1993年提出增税计划，将个人所得税最高边际税率从31%提高至39.6%，将企业所得税最高边际税率从34%提高至35%。值得注意的是，2012年个人所得税最高边际税率从35%上升至39.6%并非是加税导致，而是小布什减税期限已满，税率自动回到减税前的水平。（三）拜登打算如何加税？拜登加税主要是在两个方面，一是高收入群体的工资税、所得税、资本利得税和遗产税等，二是重新上调企业所得税率，对一些企业税进行调整。从下述条款的具体细则中可以看出，拜登的加税对象非常明确，就是富有群体和企业，对社会中下阶层的税收优惠和抵免反而提高了。1、个体税制调整：富人税负增加，中下阶层减负1）对年收入超过40万美元的人征收12.4%的社会保障工资税（Social Security payroll tax），由雇主和雇员平分。在先行的税法下，年收入高于13.77万的个人不需要支付社会保障工资税。2）将应税收入超过40万美元的最高个人所得税税率从现行法律规定的37%上调至39.6%；对于年收入超过40万美元的群体，即便有分项扣除的税收优惠，其个人所得税率也不得低于28%；恢复对应税收入超过40万美元的项目扣除额的「皮斯限制」；对应税收入超过40万美元的群体，逐步取消符合资格的业务收入扣除额。3）按39.6%的普通所得税税率对100万美元以上的长期资本利得和合格股息收入征税，消除资本利得税的累进性。4）税收抵免：扩大65岁以上无子女员工的劳动所得税抵免，为个人提供可再生能源相关的税收抵免；将儿童和受扶养人税收抵免(CDCTC)从最高3000美元扩大到8000美元(多个受扶养人为16000美元)，并将最高偿还率从35%提高到50%。在2021年，将17岁及以下儿童的儿童税收抵免(CTC)从最高2000美元提高到3000美元，同时为6岁以下儿童提供600美元的额外抵免，CTC将全额退还。值得一提的是，关于CTC的措施已在1.9万亿救济计划中实施；重建首次购房者的税收抵免政策，为首次购房者提供1.5万美元的税收抵免。5）将遗产税和赠与税的税率和免税额恢复到2009年的水平。2017年特朗普税改后，将2018-2025年的遗产和赠与税的免税额从每人500万提高至1000万，税率仍然定在40%。如果回到2009年水平，免税额将从现在的1000万降至350万，税率则从40%提高至45%。6）其他缺乏明确信息的调整项目：通过提供可退还的税收抵免来取代传统的扣除项目，以平衡传统退休账户(如401(k)和个人退休账户)的税收优惠；取消房地产税的某些规定；扩大《平价医疗法案》的保费税收抵免；创建可退还的租户税收抵免并提供每年不超过50亿美元的抵免额度，旨在将租金和水电费保持在租户月收入的30%以下；加大对低收入者住房税收抵免的额度。2、企业税制调整：税负增加，但鼓励制造业回流1）将企业所得税税率从21%提高到28%。2）对账面利润超过1亿美元的公司征收最低税。最低税是一种替代税——企业将支付常规企业所得税或15%最低税中的更高者，仍然允许净经营亏损(NOL)和外国税收抵免。3）将美国公司海外子公司的全球无形资产低税收收入(Global Intangible Low Tax Income)税率从10.5%提高一倍至21%。提议对海外子公司的GILTI进行分国家评估，取消将低于合格企业资产投资(QBAI) 10%的GILTI视为回报豁免的条款。在2017年税改前，美国一般对其公司和居民的全球收入征税，美国公司可以申请推迟对海外子公司的活跃业务收益征税，直到收益作为股息汇回美国。在税改之后，美国豁免了美国公司海外子公司活跃业务的收益，即使这些收益被汇回国内也不会被征税(但仍对外国子公司的被动投资收入征税)。美国国会担心将跨国公司的海外收入完全豁免，可能会加剧其将利润转移到海外低税收司法管辖区的做法，因此对全球无形资产低税收收入制定了10.5%的最低税率，以阻止利润转移。GILTI是指无形资产(如专利、商标和版权)带来的收入。无形资产具有高度的可移动性，该税率试图阻止美国公司将无形资产转移到海外。4）税收抵免：建立制造业税收抵免；扩大新市场的税收抵免并使之永久化；为采用工作场所退休储蓄计划的小企业提供税收抵免；扩大与可再生能源相关的税收抵免，包括碳捕获、使用和储存的税收抵免以及住宅能效的税收抵免，并恢复能源投资税收抵免(ITC)和电动汽车税收抵免，结束对化石燃料的税收补贴。5）其他缺乏明确信息的调整项目：对那些「为了向美国市场销售产品或提供服务而将制造业和服务业工作岗位转移到国外」的企业征收10%的附加税。为恢复生产、振兴已关闭或即将关闭的设施、重组设施以促进制造业就业或扩大制造业工资规模的活动，提供优先的10%的「美国制造」税收抵免。（四）拜登加税对美国经济的影响加税对经济的影响较为复杂，主要借鉴海外智库的评估来大致了解拜登加税对美国经济的影响。就经济增长而言，税务基金会和税收政策中心均预估加税会对未来十年对经济增长造成负面影响，会使未来十年GDP下降1.62%~3.4%。就税收收入而言，税务基金会认为加税在未来十年可以筹集约2.8万亿税收收入，而税收政策中心估计加税将使未来十年联邦收入减少1610亿美元（约占这10年总收入的8%）。此外，税务基金会预计加税将使工资水平下降、就业岗位流失，使收入差距缩小但整体居民税后收入下降。1、税务基金会（Tax Foundation）的估计1）财政收入的影响：拜登税收计划将在未来10年筹集约2.8万亿美元。2）经济的影响：在未来十年，使GDP总共减少1.62%，GNP总共下降1.83%，使资本存量减少3.75%，使长期平均工资水平下降1.15%，损失54.2万个工作岗位。3）收入分配的影响：拜登的税收计划到2030年将导致最富有的1%纳税人的税后收入减少7.7%左右，所有纳税人的税后收入平均下降1.9%。2、税收政策中心（TaxPolicy Center）1）经济影响：使未来十年美国GDP总共下降3.4%，对GDP的影响将在2040年转正，在2040年以后的年份，正向影响将逐渐增大。2）收入影响：将使2021年至2030年的美国联邦收入减少1610亿美元（约占这10年总收入的8%），2031年至2040年减少900亿美元。到2040年，税收计划对联邦收入的影响将转正，其正效应在2040年的随后年份将逐渐增加。三、关键时间点：正式的重建计划可能会在什么时候推出？目前，拜登团队还没有公布正式的计划方案和投资细则，后续要追踪拜登的重建计划，有两个关键的时间节点值得关注：第一个关键时间点：今年4-5月。拜登在今年1月14日首次提出「美国救济计划」时曾明确说道：「下个月，在我第一次出席国会联席会议时，我将提出我的‘重建更好未来的复苏计划’[5]。」正常情况下，拜登的重建计划本应该在2月份就正式提出，但疫情才是第一要务，2月11日众议院议长佩洛西表示，「在我们通过新冠疫情纾困法案之前，我们不会做任何事情。」由于美国救济计划在国会遭遇阻力，直到3月14日才正式落地，因此拜登至今还未出席国会联席会议，重建计划也还没有正式提出。国会联席会议什么时候召开呢？这是关键。3月24日白宫发言人普萨基表示，「目前还没有确定时间…我们当然仍有兴趣承诺进行一次联合会议。我们会与他们保持联系，但我不知道具体的时间。」历史上，总统出席国会联席会议并发表「在国会联席会议上的演讲」的时间最晚不超过2月份。现在海外预期拜登将在4月正式出席国会联席会议[6]，那么届时他将向议员介绍重建计划。另据高盛预计，白宫或在5月向国会递交详细的预算方案。再根据民主党高层的表态，希望基建方案能在5月通过参众两院下属的委员会，因此我们预计，重建计划的总规模和具体的项目细节大概率将于4-5月公布。第二个关键时间点：10月。拜登的重建计划的推出实施，需要经过美国国会的同意。目前民主党掌控众议院，可以在众议院轻松通过法案。但是民主党在参议院只是略占优势，仅比共和党多1票的投票权，无法绕过参议院的「阻挠议事」（需要60票）。拜登的重建计划要想在参议院获得通过，只有两个办法。一是在保证所有民主党参议员同意的前提下，至少再争取10位共和党参议员的支持。二是再次启用预算和解程序，和1.9万亿美国救济计划走的国会流程一致，只需要51票即可通过参议院。就目前共和党参议院高层的表态来看，第一种办法的可行性非常低，参议院共和党领导麦康奈尔本周一表示：「我们听说，未来几个月可能会提出所谓的基础设施法案，实际上可能是暗藏大幅加税和其他有损就业的左翼政策的特洛伊木马。」拜登的重建计划要想落地，最大的可能是启动预算和解程序。美国财政年度是每年10月至次年9月，预算和解程序一个财年一般只能使用一次（本来收入、支出和赤字三个领域每财年各有一次启动预算和解程序的机会，但是法案一般不只涉及一个领域，基本上三个领域都会覆盖，历史经验看，预算和解程序也是一个财年最多一次），今年1.9万亿美国救济计划已经使用过2021财年的「额度」，若要再次启用预算和解程序，只能等到2022财年开始。10月份是第二个关键的时间点，第一，到10月份，民主党可以再次启用「预算和解程序」。第二，从民主党议员的表态来看，他们希望能快速通过重建计划法案，比如众议院议长佩洛西希望国会快速采取行动制定变革性的基建计划。四附录：拜登重建计划细则内容","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353942716,"gmtCreate":1616458135935,"gmtModify":1704794288130,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"demystification","listText":"demystification","text":"demystification","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353942716","repostId":"2120923199","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2120923199","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616138696,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2120923199?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-19 15:24","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"7 Misconceptions About Bitcoin: Speculation? Waste of energy? Too volatile?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2120923199","media":"链捕手","summary":"常见的比特币误解进行事实检查。","content":"<p><html><body><div>Bitcoin's recent surge has revived old fantasies in the media. A recent news story in the Globe and Mail in Bitcoin, Canadian newspaper said: \"Troubles in Bitcoin: Why the crypto boom can't last\".</p><p>To be sure, Bitcoin could be polarizing. Bitcoin die-hards claim that this cryptocurrency will soon replace gold, all government-backed currencies and credit cards, and cripple the banking system. Except for the flourishing of reason, this possibility won't happen at least in the short term. Media critics, on the other hand, often grossly mistakenly believe that Bitcoin is nothing more than a speculative tool, an environmental disaster, a bubble or worse.</p><p>This makes an honest, sober analysis of the facts nearly impossible for investors, which is shameful. As a new asset class, investors must do their homework on the Bitcoin and carefully consider the risks before joining.</p><p>So, in that spirit, it's time to fact check some common Bitcoin misconceptions:</p><p><strong>Bitcoin is for speculation only</strong></p><p>This is inaccurate. Every day, the Bitcoin network settles roughly $10 billion worth of transactions. Bitcoin's average daily volume of 305,000 transactions is not far from the daily number of 550,000 transactions of Fedwire, the Federal Reserve's wire settlement system between financial institutions.</p><p>Some of these transactions represent investment purchases, some of which may be for speculation, but many others are used regularly, such as remittances, especially in developing countries. For example, according to the World Economic Forum, 32% of Nigerians have Bitcoin for peer-to-peer payments. In regimes like the Russian and Belarusian, Bitcoin is sometimes the only way to fund anti-corruption efforts and protests. This is useful.</p><p><strong>Bitcoin wastes energy</strong></p><p>Bitcoin \"miners\" leverage powerful computing power to secure Bitcoin networks. These computers consume a lot of energy: it is estimated to use as much as the country of Chile. This leads to energy waste.</p><p>The Bitcoin network secures a $1 trillion worth of value and serves millions of people, including many who don't have access to traditional payment networks. Miners often live in places where electricity is abundant and free, which usually means renewable hydroelectric or geothermal energy.</p><p>Today, at least 39% of Bitcoin's mining industry is powered by renewable energy, and this share is growing rapidly. Bitcoin's carbon footprint is undoubtedly an issue that needs to be addressed. But that doesn't mean Bitcoin is a bad idea. Instead, the carbon footprint is the challenge to overcome, as is all useful entities.</p><p><strong>Bitcoin is too volatile to store value</strong></p><p>Granted, Bitcoin are more volatile than government bonds, but it's not a bad thing by nature. In the 1970s, with the formal separation of gold from the monetary system, its price was extremely volatile, rising tenfold in a decade, then falling 60% and flattening decades later. The value of gold keeps rising, and it has the most volatility. Sometimes the most volatile assets get the best returns, and sometimes they don't. Today's Bitcoin is in a \"price discovery\" stage, similar to gold in the 1970s, where ups and downs are common. Still, due to its volatility, Bitcoin may not be suitable for all investors.</p><p><strong>The government will kill Bitcoin</strong></p><p>It is true that in the Nigerian, Russian and Belarusian, Bitcoin has been treated indifferently by the government. But in the United States, Canada and most western countries, the situation is different. For example, the nation's top securities regulator taught classes on cryptocurrencies at MIT; The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates commodity markets, is a global innovator in regulating derivatives in Bitcoin; The U.S. Monetary Audit Office recently approved banks to provide custody services for Bitcoin.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>The main concern is financial stability. Nothing can destroy the $1 trillion market in Bitcoin more than some arbitrary, unfounded crackdown.</p><p><strong>Other cryptocurrencies dilute Bitcoin</strong></p><p>Since Bitcoin went live in 2009, thousands of new cryptocurrencies have been launched in the market, but there has been no noticeable impact on Bitcoin's price. And that makes sense. When we mine more tin from the earth, will it affect the supply of gold? No, because they are unrelated assets. A related criticism is that Bitcoin's total supply is not fixed, because Bitcoin can be subdivided into small increments. To understand why this is wrong, replace Bitcoin with pizza: If we cut a pizza into a billion pieces, do we have more pizza, less pizza or the same amount of pizza? Of course we are the same.</p><p><strong>Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and corporate currencies will crush Bitcoin</strong></p><p>Granted, many central banks have announced CBDC plans, but barely beyond the proof-of-concept stage. The only exception is in China, where the government is keen to launch its own digital currency to better monitor the country's spending and expand its reach beyond its borders.</p><p>Enterprise digital currencies, also known as stablecoins, do not threaten Bitcoin either. Actually, they might do the opposite. The value of all stablecoins in circulation has soared 40 times since 2017, but Bitcoin continues to thrive as more users gradually adapt to digital assets.</p><p><strong>'Easy money' is pushing Bitcoin into bubble territory</strong></p><p>Indeed, all risky assets have benefited from easy interest rate policies by the Bank of Canada, the Federal Reserve and elsewhere. As bond yields rise and money shifts to more economically sensitive stocks such as banks, energy companies, etc., some beneficiaries of low interest rates (including Shopify,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>And high-gainers in high-tech industries such as Peloton) have experienced fluctuations of more than 30%. Bitcoin may follow suit at some point, and of course, it is wise for investors to be cautious about any investment whose value has grown by more than 500% in less than a year like Bitcoin. That said, it's worth noting that Bitcoin could benefit from tightening if it signals that inflation is accelerating, as many investors see Bitcoin as a safe-haven hedge against rising consumer prices.</p><p>I believe that Bitcoin is undoubtedly a catalyst for innovation and could become a key player in the future of our global financial system. For thousands of years, from<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>From shells to clay sheets to precious metals, banknotes and bank balances, money is taking a step into the future. Money is becoming digital. Purchasing Bitcoin may provide a way to secure that future opportunity. However, Bitcoin is no guarantee of success and may not be the right investment for everyone, and it is as risky and uncertain as any new paradigm. To understand Bitcoin, start with the facts.</p><p><span>This article is from Fortune Magazine and translated by Chain Catcher.</span></p><p></div></body></html></p>","source":"jinse_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>7 Misconceptions About Bitcoin: Speculation? Waste of energy? Too volatile?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n7 Misconceptions About Bitcoin: Speculation? Waste of energy? Too volatile?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">链捕手</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-19 15:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><div>Bitcoin's recent surge has revived old fantasies in the media. A recent news story in the Globe and Mail in Bitcoin, Canadian newspaper said: \"Troubles in Bitcoin: Why the crypto boom can't last\".</p><p>To be sure, Bitcoin could be polarizing. Bitcoin die-hards claim that this cryptocurrency will soon replace gold, all government-backed currencies and credit cards, and cripple the banking system. Except for the flourishing of reason, this possibility won't happen at least in the short term. Media critics, on the other hand, often grossly mistakenly believe that Bitcoin is nothing more than a speculative tool, an environmental disaster, a bubble or worse.</p><p>This makes an honest, sober analysis of the facts nearly impossible for investors, which is shameful. As a new asset class, investors must do their homework on the Bitcoin and carefully consider the risks before joining.</p><p>So, in that spirit, it's time to fact check some common Bitcoin misconceptions:</p><p><strong>Bitcoin is for speculation only</strong></p><p>This is inaccurate. Every day, the Bitcoin network settles roughly $10 billion worth of transactions. Bitcoin's average daily volume of 305,000 transactions is not far from the daily number of 550,000 transactions of Fedwire, the Federal Reserve's wire settlement system between financial institutions.</p><p>Some of these transactions represent investment purchases, some of which may be for speculation, but many others are used regularly, such as remittances, especially in developing countries. For example, according to the World Economic Forum, 32% of Nigerians have Bitcoin for peer-to-peer payments. In regimes like the Russian and Belarusian, Bitcoin is sometimes the only way to fund anti-corruption efforts and protests. This is useful.</p><p><strong>Bitcoin wastes energy</strong></p><p>Bitcoin \"miners\" leverage powerful computing power to secure Bitcoin networks. These computers consume a lot of energy: it is estimated to use as much as the country of Chile. This leads to energy waste.</p><p>The Bitcoin network secures a $1 trillion worth of value and serves millions of people, including many who don't have access to traditional payment networks. Miners often live in places where electricity is abundant and free, which usually means renewable hydroelectric or geothermal energy.</p><p>Today, at least 39% of Bitcoin's mining industry is powered by renewable energy, and this share is growing rapidly. Bitcoin's carbon footprint is undoubtedly an issue that needs to be addressed. But that doesn't mean Bitcoin is a bad idea. Instead, the carbon footprint is the challenge to overcome, as is all useful entities.</p><p><strong>Bitcoin is too volatile to store value</strong></p><p>Granted, Bitcoin are more volatile than government bonds, but it's not a bad thing by nature. In the 1970s, with the formal separation of gold from the monetary system, its price was extremely volatile, rising tenfold in a decade, then falling 60% and flattening decades later. The value of gold keeps rising, and it has the most volatility. Sometimes the most volatile assets get the best returns, and sometimes they don't. Today's Bitcoin is in a \"price discovery\" stage, similar to gold in the 1970s, where ups and downs are common. Still, due to its volatility, Bitcoin may not be suitable for all investors.</p><p><strong>The government will kill Bitcoin</strong></p><p>It is true that in the Nigerian, Russian and Belarusian, Bitcoin has been treated indifferently by the government. But in the United States, Canada and most western countries, the situation is different. For example, the nation's top securities regulator taught classes on cryptocurrencies at MIT; The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates commodity markets, is a global innovator in regulating derivatives in Bitcoin; The U.S. Monetary Audit Office recently approved banks to provide custody services for Bitcoin.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>The main concern is financial stability. Nothing can destroy the $1 trillion market in Bitcoin more than some arbitrary, unfounded crackdown.</p><p><strong>Other cryptocurrencies dilute Bitcoin</strong></p><p>Since Bitcoin went live in 2009, thousands of new cryptocurrencies have been launched in the market, but there has been no noticeable impact on Bitcoin's price. And that makes sense. When we mine more tin from the earth, will it affect the supply of gold? No, because they are unrelated assets. A related criticism is that Bitcoin's total supply is not fixed, because Bitcoin can be subdivided into small increments. To understand why this is wrong, replace Bitcoin with pizza: If we cut a pizza into a billion pieces, do we have more pizza, less pizza or the same amount of pizza? Of course we are the same.</p><p><strong>Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and corporate currencies will crush Bitcoin</strong></p><p>Granted, many central banks have announced CBDC plans, but barely beyond the proof-of-concept stage. The only exception is in China, where the government is keen to launch its own digital currency to better monitor the country's spending and expand its reach beyond its borders.</p><p>Enterprise digital currencies, also known as stablecoins, do not threaten Bitcoin either. Actually, they might do the opposite. The value of all stablecoins in circulation has soared 40 times since 2017, but Bitcoin continues to thrive as more users gradually adapt to digital assets.</p><p><strong>'Easy money' is pushing Bitcoin into bubble territory</strong></p><p>Indeed, all risky assets have benefited from easy interest rate policies by the Bank of Canada, the Federal Reserve and elsewhere. As bond yields rise and money shifts to more economically sensitive stocks such as banks, energy companies, etc., some beneficiaries of low interest rates (including Shopify,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>And high-gainers in high-tech industries such as Peloton) have experienced fluctuations of more than 30%. Bitcoin may follow suit at some point, and of course, it is wise for investors to be cautious about any investment whose value has grown by more than 500% in less than a year like Bitcoin. That said, it's worth noting that Bitcoin could benefit from tightening if it signals that inflation is accelerating, as many investors see Bitcoin as a safe-haven hedge against rising consumer prices.</p><p>I believe that Bitcoin is undoubtedly a catalyst for innovation and could become a key player in the future of our global financial system. For thousands of years, from<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>From shells to clay sheets to precious metals, banknotes and bank balances, money is taking a step into the future. Money is becoming digital. Purchasing Bitcoin may provide a way to secure that future opportunity. However, Bitcoin is no guarantee of success and may not be the right investment for everyone, and it is as risky and uncertain as any new paradigm. To understand Bitcoin, start with the facts.</p><p><span>This article is from Fortune Magazine and translated by Chain Catcher.</span></p><p></div></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.jinse.com/blockchain/1032105.html\">链捕手</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://staticn.jinse.com/web/img/868bf8c.svg","relate_stocks":{"159945":"能源","EBON":"亿邦国际","CAN":"嘉楠科技"},"source_url":"https://www.jinse.com/blockchain/1032105.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2120923199","content_text":"比特币最近的飙升已经重新唤起了媒体的旧幻想。加拿大比特币《环球邮报》（Globe and Mail）最近的一则新闻说： “比特币的麻烦：为什么加密热潮不能持续下去” 。可以肯定的是，比特币可能会两极分化。比特币顽固派人士声称，这种加密货币将很快取代黄金，所有政府支持的货币和信用卡，并使银行系统瘫痪。除了理性的繁荣，这种可能性至少在短期内不会发生。另一方面，媒体评论家常常严重地误以为比特币不外乎是一种投机工具、环境灾难、泡沫或更糟。这使得投资者对事实进行诚实、清醒的分析几乎是不可能的，这是可耻的。作为一种新的资产类别，投资者必须在比特币上做好功课，并在加入之前仔细考虑风险。因此，本着这种精神，现在是时候对一些常见的比特币误解进行事实检查了：比特币仅用于投机这是不准确的。每天比特币网络结算大约价值100亿美元的交易。比特币的平均每日交易量为 305,000笔，与美联储金融机构之间电汇结算系统Fedwire的每日550,000笔的数量相差不远。 其中一些交易代表投资购买，其中一些交易可能是为了投机，但其他许多交易则是定期使用的，例如汇款，尤其是在发展中国家。例如，根据世界经济论坛的数据，尼日利亚32％的人拥有用于点对点支付的比特币。在俄罗斯和白俄罗斯这样的政权中，比特币有时是资助反腐败努力和抗议活动的唯一途径 。这很有用。比特币浪费能源比特币“矿工”利用强大的计算能力来保护比特币网络。这些计算机消耗大量能量：据估计，它的使用量相当于智利的国家。这导致了能源浪费。比特币网络可确保价值1万亿美元的价值，并为数百万人提供服务，其中包括许多无法使用传统支付网络的人。矿工们经常居住在电力丰富而又自由的地方，这通常意味着可再生的水力发电或地热能源。如今 ，至少39％的比特币采矿业由可再生能源提供动力，并且这一份额正在迅速增长。比特币的碳足迹无疑是一个需要解决的问题。但这并不意味着比特币是一个坏主意。相反，碳足迹是要克服的挑战，就像所有有用实体一样。比特币波动太大，无法存储价值诚然，比特币比政府债券更容易波动，但从本质上来说并不是坏事。1970年代，随着黄金从货币体系中正式脱离，其价格极度动荡， 在十年中上涨了10倍，然后下降了60％，并在数十年后趋于平缓。黄金的价值不断上涨，其波动性最大。有时最具波动性的资产可获得最佳回报，有时却没有。如今的比特币处于“价格发现”阶段，类似于1970年代的黄金，在那里大起大落很常见。尽管如此，由于其波动性，比特币可能并不适合所有投资者。政府将杀死比特币的确，在尼日利亚，俄罗斯和白俄罗斯，比特币受到了政府的冷漠对待。但是在美国，加拿大和大多数西方国家，情况有所不同。例如，美国最高证券监管机构 在麻省理工学院教授了有关加密货币的课程；监管商品市场的商品期货交易委员会是监管比特币衍生品的全球创新者；美国货币审计署最近批准银行为比特币提供托管服务。中央银行最关心的是金融稳定。没有什么比对一些武断的、毫无根据的镇压更能破坏价值1万亿美元的比特币市场了。其他加密货币稀释了比特币自2009年比特币上线以来，市场已经推出了数千种新的加密货币， 但对比特币的价格没有明显影响。这是有道理的。当我们从地球上开采更多锡时，会影响金的供应吗？不，因为它们是不相关的资产。一个相关的批评是，比特币的总供应量是不固定的，因为比特币可细分为微小的增量。要了解为什么这是错误的，请用比萨饼代替比特币：如果我们将一个比萨饼切成十亿块，我们是否有更多的比萨饼，更少的比萨饼或相同数量的比萨饼？我们当然是一样的。中央银行数字货币（CBDC）和公司货币将压垮比特币诚然，许多中央银行已经宣布了CBDC计划，但几乎没有超出概念验证阶段。唯一的例外是在中国，中国政府热衷于推出自己的数字货币， 以更好地监督该国的支出并将其覆盖范围扩展到其境外。企业数字货币（也称为稳定币）也不会威胁到比特币。实际上，他们可能会做相反的事情。 自2017年以来，所有流通中的稳定币的价值已飙升40倍，但随着越来越多的用户逐渐适应数字资产，比特币继续蓬勃发展。“轻松赚钱”正在将比特币推入泡沫领域的确，所有风险资产都已从加拿大银行、美联储和其他地方的宽松利率政策中受益。随着债券收益率的提高以及资金流向对经济更敏感的银行、能源公司等股票的转移，一些低利率的受益者（包括Shopify、Zoom和Peloton等高科技行业的高收益者）发生了超过30％以上的波动。比特币可能会在某个时候效仿，当然，明智的做法是，投资者应谨慎对待任何价值在不到一年的时间内像比特币一样增长超过500％的投资。也就是说，值得注意的是，比特币可能会从紧缩政策中受益，如果它预示着通货膨胀正在加速，因为许多投资者将比特币视为对冲消费者价格上涨的避险工具。我认为，比特币无疑是创新的催化剂，并可能成为我们全球金融体系未来的关键角色。几千年来，从贝壳壳到黏土片再到贵金属、钞票和银行结余，货币都在向未来迈出了一步。金钱正在变得数字化。购买比特币可能提供一种获得该未来机会的方法。但是，比特币不能保证成功，并且可能不是每个人的合适投资，它与任何新范例一样存在风险和不确定性。要了解比特币，请从事实开始。本文来自《财富》杂志，并经链捕手翻译。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159945":1,"BTCmain":1,"CAN":1,"XBTmain":1,"EBON":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1103,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":337008598,"gmtCreate":1611020768614,"gmtModify":1704986703243,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/337008598","repostId":"332320921","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":332320921,"gmtCreate":1610340151463,"gmtModify":1704982982432,"author":{"id":"3514329116425907","authorId":"3514329116425907","name":"小虎AV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91101bd3142b32495c3131036d5f8afa","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514329116425907","idStr":"3514329116425907"},"themes":[],"title":"信息量極大！新世界首富馬斯克最新訪談（66分鐘完整原版英字）","htmlText":"\n \n \n  投資未來，投資科技的一次教科書式的專訪。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>&nbsp;主要內容包括：1. 談新冠病毒：mRNA是醫學的未來2. 談戰略：主動併購不是特斯拉想要的3. 談競爭：特斯拉最厲害的對手或許來自中國（蔚來，比亞迪？）4. 談自動駕駛：我相信比人類駕駛更安全5. 談電池：鎳是最讓特斯拉頭疼的問題6. 談柏林工廠：效率和環境考量成爲選址原因7. 談個人財富：持股是給建火星城攢錢8. 談孩子：沒有人口過剩，人類應該生孩子9. 談成長：最有幫助的事情是閱讀（讀書吧，少年）10. 談AI：AI和人類或許會形成共生關係11. 談個人角色：我把自己定義成一名工程師（跟王傳福總一樣的口號）12. 談火星：兩三年後我可能會登陸火星13. 談興趣：喜歡電子音樂，還出了個人單曲還有一個非常科技、夢幻的開場和結尾。@全球視頻精選Premium的微博視頻\n \n","listText":"投資未來，投資科技的一次教科書式的專訪。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>&nbsp;主要內容包括：1. 談新冠病毒：mRNA是醫學的未來2. 談戰略：主動併購不是特斯拉想要的3. 談競爭：特斯拉最厲害的對手或許來自中國（蔚來，比亞迪？）4. 談自動駕駛：我相信比人類駕駛更安全5. 談電池：鎳是最讓特斯拉頭疼的問題6. 談柏林工廠：效率和環境考量成爲選址原因7. 談個人財富：持股是給建火星城攢錢8. 談孩子：沒有人口過剩，人類應該生孩子9. 談成長：最有幫助的事情是閱讀（讀書吧，少年）10. 談AI：AI和人類或許會形成共生關係11. 談個人角色：我把自己定義成一名工程師（跟王傳福總一樣的口號）12. 談火星：兩三年後我可能會登陸火星13. 談興趣：喜歡電子音樂，還出了個人單曲還有一個非常科技、夢幻的開場和結尾。@全球視頻精選Premium的微博視頻","text":"投資未來，投資科技的一次教科書式的專訪。$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 主要內容包括：1. 談新冠病毒：mRNA是醫學的未來2. 談戰略：主動併購不是特斯拉想要的3. 談競爭：特斯拉最厲害的對手或許來自中國（蔚來，比亞迪？）4. 談自動駕駛：我相信比人類駕駛更安全5. 談電池：鎳是最讓特斯拉頭疼的問題6. 談柏林工廠：效率和環境考量成爲選址原因7. 談個人財富：持股是給建火星城攢錢8. 談孩子：沒有人口過剩，人類應該生孩子9. 談成長：最有幫助的事情是閱讀（讀書吧，少年）10. 談AI：AI和人類或許會形成共生關係11. 談個人角色：我把自己定義成一名工程師（跟王傳福總一樣的口號）12. 談火星：兩三年後我可能會登陸火星13. 談興趣：喜歡電子音樂，還出了個人單曲還有一個非常科技、夢幻的開場和結尾。@全球視頻精選Premium的微博視頻","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06bdf5b8d7bdc14e81accb1de5ea5ccd","width":"0","height":"0"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/332320921","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"9546fc993d08402787fc94211e261c20","tweetId":"332320921","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/27e1f7ecvodtransgzp1254107296/a7eefb085285890812560402864/v.f30.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06bdf5b8d7bdc14e81accb1de5ea5ccd"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":807,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":336883723,"gmtCreate":1610064249162,"gmtModify":1704981887168,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"biden blue","listText":"biden blue","text":"biden blue","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/336883723","repostId":"1119023218","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119023218","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1610012774,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119023218?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-01-07 17:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The United States finally has a \"blue wave\". What does this mean for the capital market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119023218","media":"首席经济学家论坛","summary":"核心观点北京时间2021年1月7日，一场震惊世界的骚乱之后，特朗普的支持者们终于无奈地散去。在参、众两院联席会议上，美国副总统彭斯正式宣布拜登当选美国下一任总统。此前，美国参议院选举落幕，民主党实际掌","content":"<p><b>CORE POINT</b></p><p>On January 7, 2021, Beijing time, after a riot that shocked the world, Trump supporters finally dispersed helplessly. At the joint meeting of the Senate and the House of Representatives, US Vice President Pence officially announced Biden as the next president of the United States. Earlier, the U.S. Senate election ended, and the Democratic Party actually controlled the Senate.<b>At this point, Biden's Democratic Party controls both the Senate and the House of Representatives at the same time, welcoming the \"blue wave\".</b></p><p>1. What does the \"blue wave\" mean to the Biden administration?</p><p>First, Biden's infrastructure plan will move from \"traditional infrastructure\" (roads, bridges, transportation, etc.) to \"new infrastructure\" (communications, electricity, clean energy, etc.). Second, the theme of \"climate change\" will become more prominent in Biden's policies in infrastructure, diplomacy and other fields, and may become the beginning of his political achievements and the main line of his subsequent administration. Third, the Biden administration can \"spend money\" more generously. The Biden administration predicts that 2/3 of fiscal expenditures will come from increased taxes, and the other 1/3 will be deficits. This objectively requires the Federal Reserve to play a certain allocation role.</p><p>2. What does the \"blue wave\" mean to the capital market?</p><p>U.S. stocks-the overall improvement, the style is \"blue\": fiscal spending has increased, monetary easing has continued, and with the promotion of vaccines, expectations for U.S. economic recovery have increased, which will partially offset the negative impact of the Biden administration's corporate tax increase on corporate profits. From September to October 2020, U.S. stocks have set off a \"blue storm\" under the expectation of Biden's election, and cyclical stocks and small and medium-sized stocks have performed better; In the future, growth sectors such as technology may be affected again, while industries such as environmental protection, new energy, and infrastructure may perform well. In terms of rhythm, the \"wave\" may not be as fast as the previous \"storm\", but it is likely to last longer. As the currency continues to be easing for a period of time, it is expected that U.S. stocks will continue a good rise. Overall, U.S. stocks are better than U.S. bonds.</p><p>U.S. debt-more bearish and steeper: The Biden administration pays more attention to epidemic prevention, and fiscal support for the economy is more precise, which is more conducive to economic recovery. Large-scale fiscal is inseparable from maintaining an accommodative monetary environment, and under the Fed's new average target inflation regime, it strengthens the logic of higher inflation levels and lasting longer. As the U.S. economic recovery gains momentum after the epidemic, the Federal Reserve may gradually reduce its quantitative easing, thereby expanding the spread between the long and short ends of U.S. debt. The price of gold may take the realization of herd immunity in the United States as a watershed. Before that, the rise in inflation expectations and the slow rise in U.S. bond yields will keep the real interest rate negative, which will support the price of gold; After that, the Federal Reserve may gradually reduce its quantitative easing, which will accelerate the upward trend of U.S. bond yields, and the real interest rate will rise accordingly, and the price of gold may lose support.</p><p>U.S. dollar-short-term strengthening of weakening logic: The \"blue wave\" means that a larger-scale fiscal stimulus plan supported by the Democratic Party is expected to be implemented, especially the fiscal plan to support the fight against the epidemic is expected to take the lead in overweight. In recent years, as the debt ratio of the United States continues to expand, and this year's epidemic has led to a substantial increase in fiscal stimulus, concerns about the huge debt of the United States have begun to increasingly suppress the US dollar. Uncertainty about policies and the epidemic has declined, and the US dollar, which has safe-haven attributes, has also weakened. Taxing or strengthening supervision of science and technology, capital and the rich, paying more attention to the fairness of the US economy, and supporting the US dollar is not as strong as Trump's concept of \"America first\"; It will also hinder international capital inflows. However, in the medium term, the \"blue wave\" will help strengthen the intensity of the post-epidemic economic recovery in the United States, and it is expected to superimpose the implementation of infrastructure plans on top of the inventory cycle and the real estate cycle. Therefore, if the United States successfully achieves herd immunity in the middle of this year, the \"outstanding\" performance of the U.S. economy in the world may bring about a phased strengthening of the U.S. dollar.</p><p>At the beginning of 2021, a highly anticipated and unprecedentedly important U.S. Senate election ended. Against the background of a score of 48: 50 between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, the only two senators in Georgia were born on January 6th, U.S. time-they are Democrats! Since the statutory speaker of the Senate (Vice President Harris) has the right to make a tie decision, the 50: 50 bipartisan ratio means that the Democratic Party will actually control the Senate, which also means that the Biden administration is welcoming the \"blue wave\"!</p><p>\"Blue Wave\" refers to the fact that Democrats control the seats of the president and both houses at the same time, which is a common wisecraft used in American political and press circles. As the president-elect, Biden's Democratic Party controls the Senate and the House of Representatives, and the implementation of his New Deal will be smoother, which means that the road to U.S. economic recovery in 2021 may be smoother, and the process of rising inflation will also be smoother.</p><p>What does the \"blue wave\" mean for the Biden administration?</p><p>The marginal influence of the \"blue wave\" is mainly reflected in the differences in the ruling ideas of the two parties. The ruling ideas of the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the United States have always had distinctive party characteristics: the Democratic Party belongs to the \"progressive faction\" and its style is biased towards the Keynesian \"big government\", that is, it supports tax increases, expands fiscal expenditure, increases social security, gives full play to redistribution, treats immigrants leniently and tolerates multiculturalism; The Republican Party is a \"conservative\", and its style is biased towards the \"small government\" of economic liberalism, that is, it supports tax cuts, reduces government intervention, emphasizes freedom and efficiency, and opposes unnecessary social security and the aggravation of debt burden.</p><p>What are the characteristics of Biden's \"blue wave\"? On the one hand, it should be noted that Biden's current ruling platform is more \"progressive\" than that of ordinary Democrats (and Biden himself during the Obama era), which is mainly manifested in less caution about deficits, a larger range and scope of proposed tax increases, and large-scale fiscal and infrastructure plans, vigorous implementation of redistribution policies... even epidemic prevention policies are quite \"big government\" style (Chart 1). This makes the market have certain reservations about the implementation of its campaign promises. On the other hand, it needs to be understood that the current politicians of the two parties have a consensus on some issues, such as supporting infrastructure (Trump also had a 2 trillion infrastructure plan before but has not yet implemented it), and there are tough parts in his attitude towards trade (both pay attention to the issue of \"unfair trade\"), etc. In these areas, the \"blue wave\" is unlikely to \"make waves\".</p><p>Specifically, among Biden's key areas, the marginal impact of the \"blue wave\" will be mainly reflected in:</p><p>1) From \"traditional infrastructure\" to \"new infrastructure\". In terms of infrastructure, both parties have a consensus on improvement, but the Democratic Party may be more radical in terms of intensity; Structurally, the Republican Party pays more attention to traditional infrastructure (roads, bridges, transportation, etc.), while the Democratic Party's plan includes more clean energy projects (such as the Internet, communications, electric buses, charging piles, sewage treatment, etc.). This part, also known as \"resilient infrastructure\", is a part that is likely to be opposed by the Republican Party. The Democratic-led House of Representatives passed a $1.5 trillion infrastructure plan in July 2020, but it was not passed by the Republican-led Senate, which later reappeared in the Senate with a high probability of passing.</p><p>2) The theme of \"climate change\" will become more distinct in infrastructure, diplomacy and other fields. The Democratic Party attaches importance to climate change and is closely linked with it and infrastructure plans; The Republican Party doesn't pay much attention to climate change. The Republican-led Senate only passed a bill ($287 billion) that included a climate title in July 2019, which shows that it paid far less attention to climate issues than the Democratic-led House of Representatives at the time. Moreover, what is more certain is that the Republican Party opposes taxes such as gasoline tax and supports the continued production of traditional energy. Therefore, before the \"blue wave\", the market expected that Republican forces might hinder the continuity of the Democratic Party's entire clean energy project. In addition, \"climate change\" will also become Biden's \"diplomatic card\" (returning to the climate agreement), and may also become the beginning of his political achievements and the main line of his subsequent administration.</p><p>3) \"Spend money\" more generously, whether by \"robbing the rich to help the poor\" or \"releasing water\". The issue of \"pay for\" has always been a point of dispute between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the two houses. This issue is not only related to fiscal policy, but will also affect a series of areas related to government expenditure such as infrastructure, medical care, and education. Its essence reflects the differences between the two parties on \"big and small governments\". Democrats prefer to use the policy combination of \"fiscal deficit + tax increase on the rich and enterprises\" to solve the government's financial problems, while Republicans are relatively conservative about the deficit and do not support tax increase. With the implementation of the $900 billion fiscal stimulus plan, the fulfillment of Biden's promise of $2.7 trillion in fiscal spending during his administration in the future is more worth looking forward to than before. The Biden administration predicts that 2/3 of fiscal expenditures will come from increased taxes, and the other 1/3 will be deficits, which objectively requires the Federal Reserve to play a certain allocation role.</p><p>\"Blue Wave\" and the Outlook of Major Asset Classes</p><p><b>U.S. stocks-overall improvement, style \"blue\"</b></p><p>Fundamentally, the high-yield performance of U.S. stocks in 2017-2018 was largely attributed to Trump's tax cuts, and Biden will partially reverse the tax cuts after taking office, which is a negative factor for U.S. stocks. However, by increasing fiscal spending, the Democratic Party may offset the negative impact of tax policy changes to some extent. Now, the \"blue wave\" will start again, and with the advent of COVID-19 vaccine, expectations for economic recovery have increased, and U.S. stocks are expected to continue a good performance.</p><p>In terms of style, we have noticed that from September to October 2020, the U.S. stock market has set off a \"blue storm\" in anticipation of Biden's election. Cyclical stocks are catching up, and the attention of small and medium-cap stocks has also increased significantly. However, after Biden won the election, the market believed that the Republican Party had a high probability of controlling the Senate, and then believed that Biden's \"beating\" on the technology industry would be restricted, and the \"blue storm\" was downgraded to a \"blue ripple.\" In the future, the \"blue\" performance of U.S. stocks will strengthen, that is, growth sectors such as technology will be affected again, while industries such as environmental protection, new energy, and infrastructure may perform well in the Democratic Party's policy dividends. In terms of rhythm, the \"wave\" may not be as fast as the previous \"storm\", but it is likely to last longer. As the currency continues to be easing for a period of time, it is expected that U.S. stocks will continue a good rise. Overall, U.S. stocks are better than U.S. bonds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06fbf1e01e3521d84eb6514f5311800c\" tg-width=\"778\" tg-height=\"393\"><b>U.S. debt-more bearish and steeper</b></p><p>The Biden-led administration has strengthened expectations for U.S. economic growth and rising inflation: 1) The Biden administration has paid more attention to epidemic prevention and is also very supportive of vaccines. If the U.S. epidemic is effectively prevented and controlled, the U.S. economic recovery environment will be better; 2) The Biden administration's fiscal scale is larger and its support for the economy is more precise; 3) Large-scale fiscal is inseparable from maintaining a loose monetary environment. Under the Federal Reserve's new average target inflation system, inflation levels close to 2% (or even higher than 2%) will be allowed for a period of time, and then the blue wave indirectly strengthens The logic of inflation rising and lasting longer. In addition, as the U.S. economic recovery gains momentum after the epidemic, the necessity for the Federal Reserve to implement yield curve control (YCC) will also decrease, thereby maintaining a certain spread between the long and short ends of U.S. bonds. Therefore, the \"blue wave\" may further boost future U.S. bond yields to rise and the curve to steepen.</p><p>By the way, the price of gold may take the realization of herd immunity in the United States as a watershed. Before that, the rise in inflation expectations and the slow rise in U.S. bond yields will keep real interest rates negative, which will support the price of gold; After that, the Federal Reserve may gradually reduce its quantitative easing, which will accelerate the upward trend of U.S. bond yields, and the real interest rate will rise accordingly, and the price of gold may lose support.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff48979cbd245ed77305ee57e5fa053f\" tg-width=\"833\" tg-height=\"847\">In the short and long term, the \"blue wave\" strengthens the logic of the weakening of the US dollar: 1) The \"blue wave\" means that the larger fiscal stimulus plan supported by the Democratic Party is expected to be implemented, especially the fiscal plan to support the fight against the epidemic is expected to be the first to increase the weight. The pressure of fiscal deficit will force monetary policy to be looser. On the one hand, it will cause currency depreciation against domestic commodities; on the other hand, expanding foreign commodity purchases will also lead to current account deficit, thus putting downward pressure on the US dollar. According to the fiscal expenditure plan proposed by Biden during the campaign, the fiscal deficit ratio will rise to a higher level in the next 10 years, and the debt ratio will also rise further. In recent years, as the debt ratio of the United States continues to expand, and this year's epidemic has led to a substantial increase in fiscal stimulus, concerns about the huge debt of the United States have begun to increasingly suppress the US dollar. 2) The \"blue wave\" itself means that the uncertainty of the Biden administration's policies is reduced (the possibility of intervention by Republican forces), and the Democratic Party's epidemic prevention policies are more powerful and the prospects for epidemic control are clearer. The uncertainty caused by the epidemic It will also decline, and when risks weaken, the dollar, which has safe-haven attributes, will also weaken. 3) Biden's ruling thoughts include taxing or strengthening supervision of technology, capital and the rich, paying more attention to the fairness of the US economy, and not supporting the US dollar as strong as Trump's \"America First\" concept; It will also hinder international capital inflows.</p><p>However, in the medium term, the \"blue wave\" is conducive to strengthening the intensity of the post-epidemic economic recovery in the United States, and it is expected to superimpose the implementation of infrastructure plans on top of the inventory cycle and the real estate cycle. Therefore, if the United States successfully achieves herd immunity in the middle of this year, The \"outstanding\" performance of the U.S. economy in the world may bring about a phased strengthening of the US dollar.</p>","source":"lsy1583127396478","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The United States finally has a \"blue wave\". 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What does this mean for the capital market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">首席经济学家论坛</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-01-07 17:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>CORE POINT</b></p><p>On January 7, 2021, Beijing time, after a riot that shocked the world, Trump supporters finally dispersed helplessly. At the joint meeting of the Senate and the House of Representatives, US Vice President Pence officially announced Biden as the next president of the United States. Earlier, the U.S. Senate election ended, and the Democratic Party actually controlled the Senate.<b>At this point, Biden's Democratic Party controls both the Senate and the House of Representatives at the same time, welcoming the \"blue wave\".</b></p><p>1. What does the \"blue wave\" mean to the Biden administration?</p><p>First, Biden's infrastructure plan will move from \"traditional infrastructure\" (roads, bridges, transportation, etc.) to \"new infrastructure\" (communications, electricity, clean energy, etc.). Second, the theme of \"climate change\" will become more prominent in Biden's policies in infrastructure, diplomacy and other fields, and may become the beginning of his political achievements and the main line of his subsequent administration. Third, the Biden administration can \"spend money\" more generously. The Biden administration predicts that 2/3 of fiscal expenditures will come from increased taxes, and the other 1/3 will be deficits. This objectively requires the Federal Reserve to play a certain allocation role.</p><p>2. What does the \"blue wave\" mean to the capital market?</p><p>U.S. stocks-the overall improvement, the style is \"blue\": fiscal spending has increased, monetary easing has continued, and with the promotion of vaccines, expectations for U.S. economic recovery have increased, which will partially offset the negative impact of the Biden administration's corporate tax increase on corporate profits. From September to October 2020, U.S. stocks have set off a \"blue storm\" under the expectation of Biden's election, and cyclical stocks and small and medium-sized stocks have performed better; In the future, growth sectors such as technology may be affected again, while industries such as environmental protection, new energy, and infrastructure may perform well. In terms of rhythm, the \"wave\" may not be as fast as the previous \"storm\", but it is likely to last longer. As the currency continues to be easing for a period of time, it is expected that U.S. stocks will continue a good rise. Overall, U.S. stocks are better than U.S. bonds.</p><p>U.S. debt-more bearish and steeper: The Biden administration pays more attention to epidemic prevention, and fiscal support for the economy is more precise, which is more conducive to economic recovery. Large-scale fiscal is inseparable from maintaining an accommodative monetary environment, and under the Fed's new average target inflation regime, it strengthens the logic of higher inflation levels and lasting longer. As the U.S. economic recovery gains momentum after the epidemic, the Federal Reserve may gradually reduce its quantitative easing, thereby expanding the spread between the long and short ends of U.S. debt. The price of gold may take the realization of herd immunity in the United States as a watershed. Before that, the rise in inflation expectations and the slow rise in U.S. bond yields will keep the real interest rate negative, which will support the price of gold; After that, the Federal Reserve may gradually reduce its quantitative easing, which will accelerate the upward trend of U.S. bond yields, and the real interest rate will rise accordingly, and the price of gold may lose support.</p><p>U.S. dollar-short-term strengthening of weakening logic: The \"blue wave\" means that a larger-scale fiscal stimulus plan supported by the Democratic Party is expected to be implemented, especially the fiscal plan to support the fight against the epidemic is expected to take the lead in overweight. In recent years, as the debt ratio of the United States continues to expand, and this year's epidemic has led to a substantial increase in fiscal stimulus, concerns about the huge debt of the United States have begun to increasingly suppress the US dollar. Uncertainty about policies and the epidemic has declined, and the US dollar, which has safe-haven attributes, has also weakened. Taxing or strengthening supervision of science and technology, capital and the rich, paying more attention to the fairness of the US economy, and supporting the US dollar is not as strong as Trump's concept of \"America first\"; It will also hinder international capital inflows. However, in the medium term, the \"blue wave\" will help strengthen the intensity of the post-epidemic economic recovery in the United States, and it is expected to superimpose the implementation of infrastructure plans on top of the inventory cycle and the real estate cycle. Therefore, if the United States successfully achieves herd immunity in the middle of this year, the \"outstanding\" performance of the U.S. economy in the world may bring about a phased strengthening of the U.S. dollar.</p><p>At the beginning of 2021, a highly anticipated and unprecedentedly important U.S. Senate election ended. Against the background of a score of 48: 50 between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, the only two senators in Georgia were born on January 6th, U.S. time-they are Democrats! Since the statutory speaker of the Senate (Vice President Harris) has the right to make a tie decision, the 50: 50 bipartisan ratio means that the Democratic Party will actually control the Senate, which also means that the Biden administration is welcoming the \"blue wave\"!</p><p>\"Blue Wave\" refers to the fact that Democrats control the seats of the president and both houses at the same time, which is a common wisecraft used in American political and press circles. As the president-elect, Biden's Democratic Party controls the Senate and the House of Representatives, and the implementation of his New Deal will be smoother, which means that the road to U.S. economic recovery in 2021 may be smoother, and the process of rising inflation will also be smoother.</p><p>What does the \"blue wave\" mean for the Biden administration?</p><p>The marginal influence of the \"blue wave\" is mainly reflected in the differences in the ruling ideas of the two parties. The ruling ideas of the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the United States have always had distinctive party characteristics: the Democratic Party belongs to the \"progressive faction\" and its style is biased towards the Keynesian \"big government\", that is, it supports tax increases, expands fiscal expenditure, increases social security, gives full play to redistribution, treats immigrants leniently and tolerates multiculturalism; The Republican Party is a \"conservative\", and its style is biased towards the \"small government\" of economic liberalism, that is, it supports tax cuts, reduces government intervention, emphasizes freedom and efficiency, and opposes unnecessary social security and the aggravation of debt burden.</p><p>What are the characteristics of Biden's \"blue wave\"? On the one hand, it should be noted that Biden's current ruling platform is more \"progressive\" than that of ordinary Democrats (and Biden himself during the Obama era), which is mainly manifested in less caution about deficits, a larger range and scope of proposed tax increases, and large-scale fiscal and infrastructure plans, vigorous implementation of redistribution policies... even epidemic prevention policies are quite \"big government\" style (Chart 1). This makes the market have certain reservations about the implementation of its campaign promises. On the other hand, it needs to be understood that the current politicians of the two parties have a consensus on some issues, such as supporting infrastructure (Trump also had a 2 trillion infrastructure plan before but has not yet implemented it), and there are tough parts in his attitude towards trade (both pay attention to the issue of \"unfair trade\"), etc. In these areas, the \"blue wave\" is unlikely to \"make waves\".</p><p>Specifically, among Biden's key areas, the marginal impact of the \"blue wave\" will be mainly reflected in:</p><p>1) From \"traditional infrastructure\" to \"new infrastructure\". In terms of infrastructure, both parties have a consensus on improvement, but the Democratic Party may be more radical in terms of intensity; Structurally, the Republican Party pays more attention to traditional infrastructure (roads, bridges, transportation, etc.), while the Democratic Party's plan includes more clean energy projects (such as the Internet, communications, electric buses, charging piles, sewage treatment, etc.). This part, also known as \"resilient infrastructure\", is a part that is likely to be opposed by the Republican Party. The Democratic-led House of Representatives passed a $1.5 trillion infrastructure plan in July 2020, but it was not passed by the Republican-led Senate, which later reappeared in the Senate with a high probability of passing.</p><p>2) The theme of \"climate change\" will become more distinct in infrastructure, diplomacy and other fields. The Democratic Party attaches importance to climate change and is closely linked with it and infrastructure plans; The Republican Party doesn't pay much attention to climate change. The Republican-led Senate only passed a bill ($287 billion) that included a climate title in July 2019, which shows that it paid far less attention to climate issues than the Democratic-led House of Representatives at the time. Moreover, what is more certain is that the Republican Party opposes taxes such as gasoline tax and supports the continued production of traditional energy. Therefore, before the \"blue wave\", the market expected that Republican forces might hinder the continuity of the Democratic Party's entire clean energy project. In addition, \"climate change\" will also become Biden's \"diplomatic card\" (returning to the climate agreement), and may also become the beginning of his political achievements and the main line of his subsequent administration.</p><p>3) \"Spend money\" more generously, whether by \"robbing the rich to help the poor\" or \"releasing water\". The issue of \"pay for\" has always been a point of dispute between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the two houses. This issue is not only related to fiscal policy, but will also affect a series of areas related to government expenditure such as infrastructure, medical care, and education. Its essence reflects the differences between the two parties on \"big and small governments\". Democrats prefer to use the policy combination of \"fiscal deficit + tax increase on the rich and enterprises\" to solve the government's financial problems, while Republicans are relatively conservative about the deficit and do not support tax increase. With the implementation of the $900 billion fiscal stimulus plan, the fulfillment of Biden's promise of $2.7 trillion in fiscal spending during his administration in the future is more worth looking forward to than before. The Biden administration predicts that 2/3 of fiscal expenditures will come from increased taxes, and the other 1/3 will be deficits, which objectively requires the Federal Reserve to play a certain allocation role.</p><p>\"Blue Wave\" and the Outlook of Major Asset Classes</p><p><b>U.S. stocks-overall improvement, style \"blue\"</b></p><p>Fundamentally, the high-yield performance of U.S. stocks in 2017-2018 was largely attributed to Trump's tax cuts, and Biden will partially reverse the tax cuts after taking office, which is a negative factor for U.S. stocks. However, by increasing fiscal spending, the Democratic Party may offset the negative impact of tax policy changes to some extent. Now, the \"blue wave\" will start again, and with the advent of COVID-19 vaccine, expectations for economic recovery have increased, and U.S. stocks are expected to continue a good performance.</p><p>In terms of style, we have noticed that from September to October 2020, the U.S. stock market has set off a \"blue storm\" in anticipation of Biden's election. Cyclical stocks are catching up, and the attention of small and medium-cap stocks has also increased significantly. However, after Biden won the election, the market believed that the Republican Party had a high probability of controlling the Senate, and then believed that Biden's \"beating\" on the technology industry would be restricted, and the \"blue storm\" was downgraded to a \"blue ripple.\" In the future, the \"blue\" performance of U.S. stocks will strengthen, that is, growth sectors such as technology will be affected again, while industries such as environmental protection, new energy, and infrastructure may perform well in the Democratic Party's policy dividends. In terms of rhythm, the \"wave\" may not be as fast as the previous \"storm\", but it is likely to last longer. As the currency continues to be easing for a period of time, it is expected that U.S. stocks will continue a good rise. Overall, U.S. stocks are better than U.S. bonds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06fbf1e01e3521d84eb6514f5311800c\" tg-width=\"778\" tg-height=\"393\"><b>U.S. debt-more bearish and steeper</b></p><p>The Biden-led administration has strengthened expectations for U.S. economic growth and rising inflation: 1) The Biden administration has paid more attention to epidemic prevention and is also very supportive of vaccines. If the U.S. epidemic is effectively prevented and controlled, the U.S. economic recovery environment will be better; 2) The Biden administration's fiscal scale is larger and its support for the economy is more precise; 3) Large-scale fiscal is inseparable from maintaining a loose monetary environment. Under the Federal Reserve's new average target inflation system, inflation levels close to 2% (or even higher than 2%) will be allowed for a period of time, and then the blue wave indirectly strengthens The logic of inflation rising and lasting longer. In addition, as the U.S. economic recovery gains momentum after the epidemic, the necessity for the Federal Reserve to implement yield curve control (YCC) will also decrease, thereby maintaining a certain spread between the long and short ends of U.S. bonds. Therefore, the \"blue wave\" may further boost future U.S. bond yields to rise and the curve to steepen.</p><p>By the way, the price of gold may take the realization of herd immunity in the United States as a watershed. Before that, the rise in inflation expectations and the slow rise in U.S. bond yields will keep real interest rates negative, which will support the price of gold; After that, the Federal Reserve may gradually reduce its quantitative easing, which will accelerate the upward trend of U.S. bond yields, and the real interest rate will rise accordingly, and the price of gold may lose support.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff48979cbd245ed77305ee57e5fa053f\" tg-width=\"833\" tg-height=\"847\">In the short and long term, the \"blue wave\" strengthens the logic of the weakening of the US dollar: 1) The \"blue wave\" means that the larger fiscal stimulus plan supported by the Democratic Party is expected to be implemented, especially the fiscal plan to support the fight against the epidemic is expected to be the first to increase the weight. The pressure of fiscal deficit will force monetary policy to be looser. On the one hand, it will cause currency depreciation against domestic commodities; on the other hand, expanding foreign commodity purchases will also lead to current account deficit, thus putting downward pressure on the US dollar. According to the fiscal expenditure plan proposed by Biden during the campaign, the fiscal deficit ratio will rise to a higher level in the next 10 years, and the debt ratio will also rise further. In recent years, as the debt ratio of the United States continues to expand, and this year's epidemic has led to a substantial increase in fiscal stimulus, concerns about the huge debt of the United States have begun to increasingly suppress the US dollar. 2) The \"blue wave\" itself means that the uncertainty of the Biden administration's policies is reduced (the possibility of intervention by Republican forces), and the Democratic Party's epidemic prevention policies are more powerful and the prospects for epidemic control are clearer. The uncertainty caused by the epidemic It will also decline, and when risks weaken, the dollar, which has safe-haven attributes, will also weaken. 3) Biden's ruling thoughts include taxing or strengthening supervision of technology, capital and the rich, paying more attention to the fairness of the US economy, and not supporting the US dollar as strong as Trump's \"America First\" concept; It will also hinder international capital inflows.</p><p>However, in the medium term, the \"blue wave\" is conducive to strengthening the intensity of the post-epidemic economic recovery in the United States, and it is expected to superimpose the implementation of infrastructure plans on top of the inventory cycle and the real estate cycle. Therefore, if the United States successfully achieves herd immunity in the middle of this year, The \"outstanding\" performance of the U.S. economy in the world may bring about a phased strengthening of the US dollar.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/390422.html\">首席经济学家论坛</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a06fb8b1db7037b689423e44b4d5b305","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/390422.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119023218","content_text":"核心观点北京时间2021年1月7日，一场震惊世界的骚乱之后，特朗普的支持者们终于无奈地散去。在参、众两院联席会议上，美国副总统彭斯正式宣布拜登当选美国下一任总统。此前，美国参议院选举落幕，民主党实际掌控参议院。至此，拜登所在的民主党同时掌控参众两院，喜迎“蓝色浪潮”。1、“蓝色浪潮”对拜登政府意味着什么？第一，拜登的基建计划将从“传统基建”（公路、桥梁、交通运输等）更迈向“新型基建”（通信、电力、清洁能源等）。第二，“气候变化”的主题将在拜登的基建、外交等多领域政策中更加鲜明，可能成为其政绩的开端与之后的执政主线。第三，拜登政府可以更加大手笔“花钱”，拜登政府预计，财政支出中2/3来自增加的税收，那么另外1/3则是赤字，这又客观上需要美联储发挥一定的配和作用。2、 “蓝色浪潮”对资本市场意味着什么？美股——整体向好，风格向“蓝”：财政支出增加，货币宽松持续，伴随疫苗推广，美国经济修复预期增强，这将部分抵消拜登政府对企业加税对企业盈利的负面影响。2020年9-10月美股在拜登当选预期下已掀起过一阵“蓝色风暴”，周期股、中小盘表现较好；未来科技等成长板块或再受波及，而环保、新能源、基建等行业或有良好表现。节奏上，“浪潮”或没有此前的“风暴”来势迅猛，却很可能更加持久。伴随货币持续一段时间的宽松，预计美股会延续一段不错的上涨，整体上美股较美债更优。美债——更熊更陡：拜登政府更重视防疫，财政对经济的支撑更加精准，更利于经济修复。大规模财政与保持宽松的货币环境密不可分，在美联储新的平均目标通胀制下，加强了通胀水平走高且持续更长时间的逻辑。随着疫后美国经济复苏势头增强，美联储可能逐渐缩减量化宽松，从而扩大美债长短端的利差。黄金价格或以美国实现群体免疫为分水岭，在此之前，通胀预期上行和美债收益率上行较缓，将使实际利率持续为负，对黄金价格构成支撑；在此之后，美联储可能逐渐缩减量化宽松，使得美债收益率加速上行，实际利率随之回升，黄金价格或将失去支撑。美元——短期强化走弱逻辑：“蓝色浪潮”意味着民主党支持的更大规模财政刺激计划有望落地，特别是支持抗疫的财政方案有望率先加码。而近年来随着美国债务率的不断扩大，叠加今年疫情导致财政刺激大幅加码，对美国庞大债务的担忧开始对美元产生愈来愈大的压制。政策和疫情不确定性下降，具有避险属性的美元亦有走弱趋势。对科技、资本和富人的征税或加强监管，更加注重美国经济的公平，对美元的支撑不如特朗普“美国优先”的理念强；也会对国际资本流入造成阻碍。不过中期来看，“蓝色浪潮”下，有利于增强美国疫后经济复苏的强度，有望在库存周期、地产周期之上叠加基建方案的落地。因此，倘若今年年中美国顺利实现群体免疫，美国经济在全球“一枝独秀”的表现有可能带来美元的阶段性走强。2021年开年，一场万众瞩目、空前重要的美国参议员选举落幕，在民主党与共和党48：50的比分背景下，美国时间1月6日佐治亚州唯二的参议员诞生——他们是民主党人！由于参议院法定议长（副总统哈里斯）拥有平票决定权，因此50：50的两党配比即意味着着民主党将实际掌控参议院，这也意味着着拜登政府喜迎“蓝色浪潮”！“蓝色浪潮”指的是民主党人同时控制总统与两院席位，本是美国政界和新闻界惯用的俏皮话。拜登作为当选总统，其所在民主党控制参众两院，其新政推行之路将更顺，意味着2021年美国经济复苏之路或更加顺畅，通胀上行的过程也将更加畅通。“蓝色浪潮”对拜登政府意味着什么？“蓝色浪潮”的边际影响主要体现在两党执政理念的差异部分。美国民主党与共和党的执政理念历来带有鲜明的党派特色：民主党属于“进步派”，风格偏向于凯恩斯主义的“大政府”，即支持加税、扩大财政支出、加大社会保障、发挥再分配作用、宽待移民以及包容多元文化等；共和党则属于“保守派”，风格偏向于经济自由主义的“小政府”，即支持减税、减少政府干预、强调自由与效率、反对不必要的社会保障与债务负担的加剧等。拜登的“蓝色浪潮”有何特点？一方面，需要注意当前拜登的执政纲领比普通民主党人（和奥巴马时期的拜登自己）更加“进步”，主要表现为对赤字的谨慎度降低、拟增税幅度和范围均较大、大规模财政和基建计划、大力落实再分配政策……甚至在防疫政策上也颇有“大政府”风范（图表1）。这一点让市场对于其竞选承诺的落实程度持一定保留态度。另一方面，需要理解当前两党政客在部分问题上是有共识的，比如支持基建（特朗普此前亦有2万亿基建计划但尚未落实）、对贸易的态度都存在强硬部分（都重视“不公平贸易”问题）等。就这些领域，“蓝色浪潮”不太可能“掀起波澜”。具体来看，在拜登的重点领域中，“蓝色浪潮”的边际影响将主要体现在：1）从“传统基建”更迈向“新型基建”。在基建方面，两党都有改善共识，但力度上民主党可能更激进；结构上共和党更侧重传统基建（公路、桥梁、交通运输等），而民主党的计划更多地包括了清洁能源项目（如互联网、通信、电动巴士、充电桩、污水处理等）。这一部分也被称为“有弹性的基础设施”，是大概率会遭到共和党反对的部分。民主党领导的众议院在2020年7月通过了一项1.5万亿美元的基础设施计划，但未被共和党领导的参议院通过，而该计划之后重新出现在参议院且通过的概率较大。2）“气候变化”的主题在基建、外交等多领域都将更加鲜明。民主党重视气候变化，并与之和基建计划紧密联系；共和党对气候变化不太关注，共和党领导的参议院仅在2019年7月通过了包括一个气候标题的法案（2870亿美元），可见其对气候问题的重视程度远远小于当时民主党领导的众议院。而且，比较肯定的是，共和党反对汽油税一类的税收、支持继续生产传统能源，因此“蓝色浪潮”前，市场预期共和党势力可能对民主党整个清洁能源项目的连贯性造成阻碍。此外，“气候变化”亦将成为拜登的“外交牌”（重返气候协定），还可能成为其政绩的开端与之后的执政主线。3）更加大手笔“花钱”，无论是通过“劫富济贫”还是“放水”。“谁来买单”（pay for）问题一直是民主党和共和党在两院的争执点，这一问题不仅关乎财政政策，也将影响基建、医疗、教育等一系列与政府支出相关的领域，其本质体现了两党对“大小政府”的分歧。民主党人更倾向于使用“财政赤字+对富人和企业加税”的政策组合来解决政府财务问题，共和党人对赤字相对保守，也不支持增税。随着9000亿美元财政刺激计划落地，未来拜登关于执政期间2.7 万亿美元财政支出的承诺兑现比之前更值得期待了。拜登政府预计，财政支出中2/3来自增加的税收，那么另外1/3则是赤字，这又客观上需要美联储发挥一定的配和作用。“蓝色浪潮”与大类资产展望美股——整体向好，风格向“蓝”基本面上，2017-2018年美股高收益表现在很大程度上归因于特朗普的减税政策，而拜登上台后将部分逆转减税政策，对美股是一个利空因素。然而，民主党通过增加财政支出，可能会一定程度上抵消税收政策变动的负面影响。如今，“蓝色浪潮”将重新掀起，且伴随着新冠疫苗的问世，经济修复的预期增强，美股预计仍将延续一段不错的表现。风格上，我们注意到2020年9-10月，美股在拜登当选预期下已掀起过一阵“蓝色风暴”，周期股呈迎头赶上态势，中小盘股的关注度也明显提升。不过，拜登胜选后，市场认为共和党控制参议院的概率较高，继而认为拜登对科技行业的“敲打”将受制约，“蓝色风暴”降格成“蓝色涟漪”。未来一段时间，美股的“蓝色”表现将增强，即科技等成长板块再受波及，而环保、新能源、基建等行业可能在民主党政策红利中有良好表现。节奏上，“浪潮”或没有此前的“风暴”来势迅猛，却很可能更加持久。伴随货币持续一段时间的宽松，预计美股会延续一段不错的上涨，整体上美股较美债更优。美债——更熊更陡拜登领导的政府强化美国经济增长和通胀抬升的预期：1）拜登政府对防疫更加重视，对疫苗也很支持，美国疫情若得到有力防控，美国经济复苏环境会更优；2）拜登政府的财政规模更大，对经济的支撑更加精准；3）大规模财政与保持宽松的货币环境密不可分，在美联储新的平均目标通胀制下，一段时间的接近2%（甚至高于2%）的通胀水平将被允许，继而蓝色浪潮间接加强了通胀水平走高且持续更长时间的逻辑。此外，随着疫后美国经济复苏势头增强，美联储实施收益率曲线控制（YCC）的必要性也会有所下降，从而使得美债长短端保持一定利差。因此，“蓝色浪潮”或进一步助推未来的美债收益率上行和曲线趋陡。顺便一提，黄金价格或以美国实现群体免疫为分水岭，在此之前，通胀预期上行和美债收益率上行较缓，将使实际利率持续为负，对黄金价格构成支撑；在此之后，美联储可能逐渐缩减量化宽松，使得美债收益率加速上行，实际利率随之回升，黄金价格或将失去支撑。短期和长期内，“蓝色浪潮”强化美元走弱逻辑：1）“蓝色浪潮”意味着民主党支持的更大规模财政刺激计划有望落地，特别是支持抗疫的财政方案有望率先加码。而财政赤字压力将迫使货币政策更偏宽松，一方面造成货币对国内商品的贬值，另一方面扩大对外商品购买也将导致经常账户赤字，从而构成美元下行的压力。按照拜登竞选过程中提出的财政支出方案，未来10年财政赤字率将上一台阶，债务率也会进一步攀升。而近年来随着美国债务率的不断扩大，叠加今年疫情导致财政刺激大幅加码，对美国庞大债务的担忧开始对美元产生愈来愈大的压制。2）“蓝色浪潮”本身意味着拜登政府政策的不确定性降低（受共和党势力干预的可能性），且民主党防疫政策更有力、疫情控制前景更明朗，因疫情造成的不确定性也会下降，风险减弱时，具有避险属性的美元亦有走弱趋势。3）拜登执政思想包括对科技、资本和富人的征税或加强监管，更加注重美国经济的公平，对美元的支撑不如特朗普“美国优先”的理念强；也会对国际资本流入造成阻碍。不过中期来看，“蓝色浪潮”下有利于增强美国疫后经济复苏的强度，有望在库存周期、地产周期之上叠加基建方案的落地，因此，倘若今年年中美国顺利实现群体免疫，美国经济在全球“一枝独秀”的表现可能带来美元的阶段性走强。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":336318079,"gmtCreate":1610026698491,"gmtModify":1704981604628,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"bt","listText":"bt","text":"bt","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/336318079","repostId":"336947928","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":336947928,"gmtCreate":1610018399958,"gmtModify":1704981545937,"author":{"id":"58341441844653","authorId":"58341441844653","name":"孟浩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/483039f7d05988e78e38a07bc2e5c3db","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"58341441844653","idStr":"58341441844653"},"themes":[],"title":"比特幣大漲，帶來哪些投資機會？","htmlText":"今年比特幣的價格可以用不可思議來形容，昨天連創新高，比特幣突破36000美元之後，僅過了三個多小時後又暫突破37,000美元關口，續創紀錄高位。2020年以來對於比特幣來說是具有里程碑的一年，在這一年比特幣已上漲超300%，市場對於比特幣的認可度增加。本以爲比特幣或許會出現短暫回調的時候，結果，2021年，僅過了6天，就迎來了30%以上的漲幅，這篇文章想跟大家聊聊本輪比特幣上漲的邏輯？比特幣概念股都有哪些？ 比特幣上漲的原因 長期關注幣圈的朋友應該注意到比特幣暴漲暴跌是常態，但像是最近的這種單邊行情並不常見，那麼到底是什麼原因導致比特幣大漲呢？ 我認爲原因有3點，分別是： 1是疫情影響下，全球央行大放水，致使投資者對抗通脹的資產需求增加。爲穩定市場和經濟，各國央行的財政刺激規模空前，美國國會兩院高票通過最新一輪規模達9000億美元的刺激計劃。疫情爆發以來，美國政府共推出了3輪共約3萬億美元的財政刺激方案。在這種寬鬆貨幣政策下，全球通脹預期擡頭，市場對於抗通脹資產的需求大幅增加。 2&nbsp;是比特幣減半導致供應量減少，2020年5月比特幣第三次減半正式完成。比特幣依賴“挖礦”計算機，需要在一堆隨機數中找到符合要求的數值。系統平均每10分鐘將交易數據分組(即打包成一個塊)。最先找到“答案”的挖礦者獲得記賬權，同時獲得新比特幣作爲獎勵。系統規定，每隔21萬個區塊或大約四年，礦工獎勵減少一半。此舉旨在抑制通脹，理論上應該會推高比特幣價格。除卻這次之外，在歷史上，比特幣總共有2次減半，而每一次無疑都帶來了戲劇化行情，在2012年、2016年的減半事件中，比特幣價格第一次上漲了80倍、第二次上漲了20倍。正是基於對比特幣“減半行情”的預期，比特幣價格先行開漲。 3&nbsp;是華爾街巨頭入場，2020年以來，巨鯨用戶紛紛入場比特幣市場，比如知名數字資產信託機構灰度信託數字資產","listText":"今年比特幣的價格可以用不可思議來形容，昨天連創新高，比特幣突破36000美元之後，僅過了三個多小時後又暫突破37,000美元關口，續創紀錄高位。2020年以來對於比特幣來說是具有里程碑的一年，在這一年比特幣已上漲超300%，市場對於比特幣的認可度增加。本以爲比特幣或許會出現短暫回調的時候，結果，2021年，僅過了6天，就迎來了30%以上的漲幅，這篇文章想跟大家聊聊本輪比特幣上漲的邏輯？比特幣概念股都有哪些？ 比特幣上漲的原因 長期關注幣圈的朋友應該注意到比特幣暴漲暴跌是常態，但像是最近的這種單邊行情並不常見，那麼到底是什麼原因導致比特幣大漲呢？ 我認爲原因有3點，分別是： 1是疫情影響下，全球央行大放水，致使投資者對抗通脹的資產需求增加。爲穩定市場和經濟，各國央行的財政刺激規模空前，美國國會兩院高票通過最新一輪規模達9000億美元的刺激計劃。疫情爆發以來，美國政府共推出了3輪共約3萬億美元的財政刺激方案。在這種寬鬆貨幣政策下，全球通脹預期擡頭，市場對於抗通脹資產的需求大幅增加。 2&nbsp;是比特幣減半導致供應量減少，2020年5月比特幣第三次減半正式完成。比特幣依賴“挖礦”計算機，需要在一堆隨機數中找到符合要求的數值。系統平均每10分鐘將交易數據分組(即打包成一個塊)。最先找到“答案”的挖礦者獲得記賬權，同時獲得新比特幣作爲獎勵。系統規定，每隔21萬個區塊或大約四年，礦工獎勵減少一半。此舉旨在抑制通脹，理論上應該會推高比特幣價格。除卻這次之外，在歷史上，比特幣總共有2次減半，而每一次無疑都帶來了戲劇化行情，在2012年、2016年的減半事件中，比特幣價格第一次上漲了80倍、第二次上漲了20倍。正是基於對比特幣“減半行情”的預期，比特幣價格先行開漲。 3&nbsp;是華爾街巨頭入場，2020年以來，巨鯨用戶紛紛入場比特幣市場，比如知名數字資產信託機構灰度信託數字資產","text":"今年比特幣的價格可以用不可思議來形容，昨天連創新高，比特幣突破36000美元之後，僅過了三個多小時後又暫突破37,000美元關口，續創紀錄高位。2020年以來對於比特幣來說是具有里程碑的一年，在這一年比特幣已上漲超300%，市場對於比特幣的認可度增加。本以爲比特幣或許會出現短暫回調的時候，結果，2021年，僅過了6天，就迎來了30%以上的漲幅，這篇文章想跟大家聊聊本輪比特幣上漲的邏輯？比特幣概念股都有哪些？ 比特幣上漲的原因 長期關注幣圈的朋友應該注意到比特幣暴漲暴跌是常態，但像是最近的這種單邊行情並不常見，那麼到底是什麼原因導致比特幣大漲呢？ 我認爲原因有3點，分別是： 1是疫情影響下，全球央行大放水，致使投資者對抗通脹的資產需求增加。爲穩定市場和經濟，各國央行的財政刺激規模空前，美國國會兩院高票通過最新一輪規模達9000億美元的刺激計劃。疫情爆發以來，美國政府共推出了3輪共約3萬億美元的財政刺激方案。在這種寬鬆貨幣政策下，全球通脹預期擡頭，市場對於抗通脹資產的需求大幅增加。 2 是比特幣減半導致供應量減少，2020年5月比特幣第三次減半正式完成。比特幣依賴“挖礦”計算機，需要在一堆隨機數中找到符合要求的數值。系統平均每10分鐘將交易數據分組(即打包成一個塊)。最先找到“答案”的挖礦者獲得記賬權，同時獲得新比特幣作爲獎勵。系統規定，每隔21萬個區塊或大約四年，礦工獎勵減少一半。此舉旨在抑制通脹，理論上應該會推高比特幣價格。除卻這次之外，在歷史上，比特幣總共有2次減半，而每一次無疑都帶來了戲劇化行情，在2012年、2016年的減半事件中，比特幣價格第一次上漲了80倍、第二次上漲了20倍。正是基於對比特幣“減半行情”的預期，比特幣價格先行開漲。 3 是華爾街巨頭入場，2020年以來，巨鯨用戶紛紛入場比特幣市場，比如知名數字資產信託機構灰度信託數字資產","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a235fe9d9b76dd3ee76d06e6e477cf4","width":"364","height":"200"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/408e8e4c31aff58f9453bf26469bd4a4","width":"858","height":"644"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc4b578d83f506f8ef9235260042263f","width":"2600","height":"1424"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/336947928","isVote":2,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"subType":2,"vote":{"id":1296,"gmtBegin":1610022434562,"gmtEnd":1610368017089,"type":1,"upper":1,"title":"你認爲比特幣還能漲嗎？","choices":[{"id":4883,"sort":1,"name":"還能漲","userSize":374,"voted":false},{"id":4884,"sort":2,"name":"該回調了","userSize":110,"voted":false},{"id":4885,"sort":3,"name":"圍觀","userSize":63,"voted":false}]},"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":909,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":336985436,"gmtCreate":1610011003625,"gmtModify":1704981491173,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"2020-2030","listText":"2020-2030","text":"2020-2030","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/336985436","repostId":"331651581","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":331651581,"gmtCreate":1609588800000,"gmtModify":1704979402598,"author":{"id":"3524105581449289","authorId":"3524105581449289","name":"扑克投资家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca993284400c72bf022739f5328f46cf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3524105581449289","idStr":"3524105581449289"},"themes":[],"title":"10年之內，美國買房中國買股","htmlText":"作 者&nbsp;|&nbsp;財主家沒有餘糧啦 來&nbsp;源&nbsp;| 財主家的餘糧 正文 朋友問我，把時間限定在10年之內，不推薦黃金和比特幣的話，中國和美國，分別應該持有什麼資產？ 我回答說： 美國買房，中國買股。 除儲蓄之外，無論中國還是美國，可供普通人投資的三類資產，就是股票、債券和房地產，所謂投資，也無非就是這三種類資產之間如何切換的問題。 這三類資產規模龐大，流動性非常好——截止2020年底，全球的股市總市值100萬億美元（其中美國佔比50%左右），而債券市場規模高達130萬億美元，至於房地產市場，加起來大約是280萬億美元，比股票和債券加起來還要多。 這三類資產，一方面是全球目前規模最大的三類資產，流動性極好，方便普通人進入和退出； 另一方面，這也是各國政府鼓勵民衆持有的資產——這就是我所謂的“親政府資產”，所以，只要政府在，這些資產都是沒有問題的。 爲什麼推薦在美國買房子而不是買股票？ 我用一幅圖來說明原因。 這裏，從金融的角度，我有必要強調一下主流國家所謂“經濟發展”或“財富積累”的真相： 1）從社會四部門（政府、金融部門、非金融企業、家庭部門）來看，政府和金融部門只是在分配和轉移財富，並不參與真實財富創造，僅從實體經濟的角度來考慮，政府被稱爲公共部門，而非金融企業和家庭部門則被稱爲“私營部門”。 2）除基本的生產和消費活動之外，經濟（貨幣）擴張的途徑，在於私營部門非金融企業或家庭部門的信用擴張活動，也就是借債的能力——當非金融企業借貸之後，用於生產上的投資，創造利潤，帶來商品和服務的增加，而家庭部門借貸之後，主要用於購買房子，而房子則關聯着一系列的產業，從而促成經濟擴張，另有一部分用於消費，同樣擴大經濟擴張。 3）借貸過程，從貨幣端來看，（商業銀行）用這些借貸做抵押，從央行得到新的貨幣，這些貨幣在商業銀行和私營部門之間來回流轉（這就是貨幣乘數）","listText":"作 者&nbsp;|&nbsp;財主家沒有餘糧啦 來&nbsp;源&nbsp;| 財主家的餘糧 正文 朋友問我，把時間限定在10年之內，不推薦黃金和比特幣的話，中國和美國，分別應該持有什麼資產？ 我回答說： 美國買房，中國買股。 除儲蓄之外，無論中國還是美國，可供普通人投資的三類資產，就是股票、債券和房地產，所謂投資，也無非就是這三種類資產之間如何切換的問題。 這三類資產規模龐大，流動性非常好——截止2020年底，全球的股市總市值100萬億美元（其中美國佔比50%左右），而債券市場規模高達130萬億美元，至於房地產市場，加起來大約是280萬億美元，比股票和債券加起來還要多。 這三類資產，一方面是全球目前規模最大的三類資產，流動性極好，方便普通人進入和退出； 另一方面，這也是各國政府鼓勵民衆持有的資產——這就是我所謂的“親政府資產”，所以，只要政府在，這些資產都是沒有問題的。 爲什麼推薦在美國買房子而不是買股票？ 我用一幅圖來說明原因。 這裏，從金融的角度，我有必要強調一下主流國家所謂“經濟發展”或“財富積累”的真相： 1）從社會四部門（政府、金融部門、非金融企業、家庭部門）來看，政府和金融部門只是在分配和轉移財富，並不參與真實財富創造，僅從實體經濟的角度來考慮，政府被稱爲公共部門，而非金融企業和家庭部門則被稱爲“私營部門”。 2）除基本的生產和消費活動之外，經濟（貨幣）擴張的途徑，在於私營部門非金融企業或家庭部門的信用擴張活動，也就是借債的能力——當非金融企業借貸之後，用於生產上的投資，創造利潤，帶來商品和服務的增加，而家庭部門借貸之後，主要用於購買房子，而房子則關聯着一系列的產業，從而促成經濟擴張，另有一部分用於消費，同樣擴大經濟擴張。 3）借貸過程，從貨幣端來看，（商業銀行）用這些借貸做抵押，從央行得到新的貨幣，這些貨幣在商業銀行和私營部門之間來回流轉（這就是貨幣乘數）","text":"作 者 | 財主家沒有餘糧啦 來 源 | 財主家的餘糧 正文 朋友問我，把時間限定在10年之內，不推薦黃金和比特幣的話，中國和美國，分別應該持有什麼資產？ 我回答說： 美國買房，中國買股。 除儲蓄之外，無論中國還是美國，可供普通人投資的三類資產，就是股票、債券和房地產，所謂投資，也無非就是這三種類資產之間如何切換的問題。 這三類資產規模龐大，流動性非常好——截止2020年底，全球的股市總市值100萬億美元（其中美國佔比50%左右），而債券市場規模高達130萬億美元，至於房地產市場，加起來大約是280萬億美元，比股票和債券加起來還要多。 這三類資產，一方面是全球目前規模最大的三類資產，流動性極好，方便普通人進入和退出； 另一方面，這也是各國政府鼓勵民衆持有的資產——這就是我所謂的“親政府資產”，所以，只要政府在，這些資產都是沒有問題的。 爲什麼推薦在美國買房子而不是買股票？ 我用一幅圖來說明原因。 這裏，從金融的角度，我有必要強調一下主流國家所謂“經濟發展”或“財富積累”的真相： 1）從社會四部門（政府、金融部門、非金融企業、家庭部門）來看，政府和金融部門只是在分配和轉移財富，並不參與真實財富創造，僅從實體經濟的角度來考慮，政府被稱爲公共部門，而非金融企業和家庭部門則被稱爲“私營部門”。 2）除基本的生產和消費活動之外，經濟（貨幣）擴張的途徑，在於私營部門非金融企業或家庭部門的信用擴張活動，也就是借債的能力——當非金融企業借貸之後，用於生產上的投資，創造利潤，帶來商品和服務的增加，而家庭部門借貸之後，主要用於購買房子，而房子則關聯着一系列的產業，從而促成經濟擴張，另有一部分用於消費，同樣擴大經濟擴張。 3）借貸過程，從貨幣端來看，（商業銀行）用這些借貸做抵押，從央行得到新的貨幣，這些貨幣在商業銀行和私營部門之間來回流轉（這就是貨幣乘數）","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c47abd3c9574111b4a4c88132b39a1c","width":"879","height":"443"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c9ab431b31941a482178d774d6aa4a0","width":"500","height":"351"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afff67841f804abdbfbc14fc53b2032d","width":"115","height":"18"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/331651581","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":743,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":338393020,"gmtCreate":1609824485260,"gmtModify":1704980235749,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"sea ltd","listText":"sea ltd","text":"sea ltd","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/338393020","repostId":"331302390","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":331302390,"gmtCreate":1609425554702,"gmtModify":1704978979766,"author":{"id":"36979109942400","authorId":"36979109942400","name":"小虎周报","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/f7b172cf773c77a3f0df67695c126b51","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36979109942400","idStr":"36979109942400"},"themes":[],"title":"2020年牛股大放送：哪些股票仍然值得期待？","htmlText":"今年可能是全球權益資產最具戲劇性的年份，疫情改變了行業格局，傳統企業如履薄冰，老牌豪門讓步於科技新秀，但總的說來，在2020年即將落下帷幕的這一刻，大部分權益都是豐收的姿態。 我們從過去的研報中精選了10家公司，其中包括5家美股，5家中概，他們都在今年取得了或不俗、或誇張的表現，我們相信，即便是明年，這些公司仍然會有精彩的故事，值得我們去關注。 1.Palantir：揭開擊殺本拉登的大數據平臺神祕面紗 一直保持神祕身份的大數據公司<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a> ，自從大選後就表現強勁，四季度期間累計漲幅達到164%。 身處大數據賽道，Palantir無論是在G端，還是B端，都給投資着留下了足夠大的想象力，加上公司深諳用戶業務邏輯，產品又解決用戶痛點，這也是不少投資者開始關注並喜歡上Palantir的原因。 目前公司的產品已經在航空領域獲得了不錯的聚集效應，未來估值的擴張則取決於行業的拓展和滲透程度，2021年Palantir能否破圈，必然值得我們期待。<a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/post/399843599\" target=\"_blank\">《Palantir：揭祕擊殺本拉登的大數據平臺神祕面紗》</a>202011232.Square：“美版支付寶”如何顛覆移動支付市場？ 可能時至今日，把<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GBTC\">$比特幣基金(GBTC)$</a> 和<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$Square, Inc(SQ)$</a> 聯繫到一起的投資者也","listText":"今年可能是全球權益資產最具戲劇性的年份，疫情改變了行業格局，傳統企業如履薄冰，老牌豪門讓步於科技新秀，但總的說來，在2020年即將落下帷幕的這一刻，大部分權益都是豐收的姿態。 我們從過去的研報中精選了10家公司，其中包括5家美股，5家中概，他們都在今年取得了或不俗、或誇張的表現，我們相信，即便是明年，這些公司仍然會有精彩的故事，值得我們去關注。 1.Palantir：揭開擊殺本拉登的大數據平臺神祕面紗 一直保持神祕身份的大數據公司<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a> ，自從大選後就表現強勁，四季度期間累計漲幅達到164%。 身處大數據賽道，Palantir無論是在G端，還是B端，都給投資着留下了足夠大的想象力，加上公司深諳用戶業務邏輯，產品又解決用戶痛點，這也是不少投資者開始關注並喜歡上Palantir的原因。 目前公司的產品已經在航空領域獲得了不錯的聚集效應，未來估值的擴張則取決於行業的拓展和滲透程度，2021年Palantir能否破圈，必然值得我們期待。<a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/post/399843599\" target=\"_blank\">《Palantir：揭祕擊殺本拉登的大數據平臺神祕面紗》</a>202011232.Square：“美版支付寶”如何顛覆移動支付市場？ 可能時至今日，把<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GBTC\">$比特幣基金(GBTC)$</a> 和<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$Square, Inc(SQ)$</a> 聯繫到一起的投資者也","text":"今年可能是全球權益資產最具戲劇性的年份，疫情改變了行業格局，傳統企業如履薄冰，老牌豪門讓步於科技新秀，但總的說來，在2020年即將落下帷幕的這一刻，大部分權益都是豐收的姿態。 我們從過去的研報中精選了10家公司，其中包括5家美股，5家中概，他們都在今年取得了或不俗、或誇張的表現，我們相信，即便是明年，這些公司仍然會有精彩的故事，值得我們去關注。 1.Palantir：揭開擊殺本拉登的大數據平臺神祕面紗 一直保持神祕身份的大數據公司$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ ，自從大選後就表現強勁，四季度期間累計漲幅達到164%。 身處大數據賽道，Palantir無論是在G端，還是B端，都給投資着留下了足夠大的想象力，加上公司深諳用戶業務邏輯，產品又解決用戶痛點，這也是不少投資者開始關注並喜歡上Palantir的原因。 目前公司的產品已經在航空領域獲得了不錯的聚集效應，未來估值的擴張則取決於行業的拓展和滲透程度，2021年Palantir能否破圈，必然值得我們期待。《Palantir：揭祕擊殺本拉登的大數據平臺神祕面紗》202011232.Square：“美版支付寶”如何顛覆移動支付市場？ 可能時至今日，把$比特幣基金(GBTC)$ 和$Square, Inc(SQ)$ 聯繫到一起的投資者也","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d00a1f4a9cd0194073555df8b8968ff0","width":"840","height":"470"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebd63393d5fb5385bb20e71d176a4873","width":"840","height":"470"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47878b7f01ce6f24f5b841b68907d456","width":"840","height":"470"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/331302390","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":10,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":331241242,"gmtCreate":1609683647286,"gmtModify":1704979540486,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"tesla","listText":"tesla","text":"tesla","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/331241242","repostId":"2100365559","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2100365559","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1609677553,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2100365559?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-01-03 20:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What is the real confidence of Tesla's price reduction? -Software! Software! Software!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2100365559","media":"计算机司令部","summary":"事件回顾2021年1月1日，特斯拉正式宣布，中国制造Model Y以及全新Model 3正式发售。有报道称，有车主甚至连夜退订此前认购的国产新势力车型，并将目光投向特斯拉。我们认为特斯拉降价的真正底气软件！其中，OTA付费升级以及高级车联网功能两块业务是特斯拉从2019年开始逐步发力的软件业务。现阶段，FSD是特斯拉最核心的应用软件，其软件收入也主要由FSD选装包贡献。多方数据佐证，上述预计的特斯拉FSD激活率及现金收","content":"<p><html><body><article>Event Review</p><p>January 1, 2021,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It was officially announced that the Chinese-made Model Y and the new Model 3 were officially released. According to Tesla China's official website, the starting price of the Model Y long-range version is 339,900 yuan, which was previously 488,000 yuan, a decrease of 148,100 yuan. The starting price of the Model Y Performance high-performance version is 369,900 yuan, which was previously 535,000 yuan, a decrease of 165,100 yuan. In addition, Tesla released a facelifted domestically produced Model 3. Among them, the upgraded Model 3 (standard battery life version) adds electric tailgate, heat pump air conditioning, double-layer soundproof glass and other configurations compared with the old model, and the price remains at 249,900 yuan; The long-range Model 3, which was originally priced at 309,900 yuan, was removed from the shelves, and the price of the high-performance Model 3 dropped from 419,000 yuan to 339,900 yuan.</p><p>The drop of more than 100,000 yuan has allowed Model Y to directly reach the price range of some of the main models of domestic new forces, which has also brought greater competitive pressure to domestic new energy car companies. There are reports that some car owners even unsubscribed to domestic new power models they had previously subscribed overnight and set their sights on Tesla.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204309124v235rhls52ohefz\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204312572v2353cmf474o1yu\"/>Source: Tesla official website, Essence Securities Research Center</p><p>Possible reasons behind the price cut</p><p><strong>Reason</strong></p><p><strong>Lower costs after continuous innovation?</strong></p><p>Tesla learned from the problem of excessive redundancy in the frame design of Model 3, simplified the body structure of Model Y, improved the integration of the car body, accelerated production, and reduced production costs. Model Y uses a large number of casting processes in the low center of gravity, solid structure and collision protection of the body-in-white. Compared with Model 3, the body-in-white parts are greatly reduced. Although the standard battery life version of Model Y has not yet been launched because the battery life does not meet Musk standards, the use of lithium iron phosphate batteries, supplemented by the experience of optimizing software and efficiency to improve the cruising range, may help the standard battery life version of Model Y break through the 230-mile cruising range limit, to achieve listing sales and lower the price of Model Y. In addition, the current domestic version of Model Y uses LG's ternary lithium battery, which is relatively costly and will be equipped later<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>The cost of Model Y, a domestic version of lithium iron phosphate battery, is expected to fall further.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204314011v235700jrq7rogb\"/><strong>Reason</strong></p><p><strong>A benign closed loop after continuous price cuts?</strong></p><p>Data show that in the second half of 2019, the price of the standard battery life version Model 3 has been adjusted five times, and the adjusted prices are 355,800/299,100/303,600/271,500/249,900 respectively. Model 3 has become the most cost-effective in China. One of the high-end mid-size cars; In addition, the price of the long-range Model 3 launched in May 2020 has also been adjusted once. It can be seen that every price reduction of domestic Model 3 will bring about an increase in sales. In November 2020, the sales volume of Model 3 has exceeded 20,000 units, and the cumulative sales volume of domestic Model 3 from January to November 2020 reached 115,400 units. Continuous price cuts have driven sales to rise, rapidly increasing Tesla's ownership in China. In addition, Tesla's continuous product innovation and optimized practicality have attracted more consumers, forming a virtuous circle.</p><p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/rPn8EmBF38piaJmickz0F39KV1iaicJhSQ9ud7TvDIiaJykTAGDUQ7IOsyDzPA0L9dk59e3PDyQHvfQAcicVLibhSnpUQ/640?wx_fmt=png\"/>We think Tesla's real confidence in price cuts</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204329887v235o9p38wsli2k\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204330865v235pyzyojl3t0p\"/><strong>Software! Software! Software!</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204331825v235v6kt484tdbm\"/><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/rPn8EmBF38piaJmickz0F39KV1iaicJhSQ9uzUgEygftib3uEVyJOPgXgGv1iaXdcDjRdGopZXuHIzgTiaf7A42ygwADA/640?wx_fmt=gif\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204352904v235gifmh82rey7\"/><strong>Reason</strong></p><p><strong>The business model is accelerating to \"Apple</strong>Fruit \"closer</p><p>Compared with traditional car companies, Tesla is more like a TO C technology company. We pointed out in our previous report that the Tesla class \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>\"The cornerstone of the establishment of the business model is to create an epoch-making<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Automobile, the representative of new domestic forces in car manufacturing<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Founder Li Xiang once commented: \"Tesla is currently the only smart car in the world.\" Based on software + hardware (highly integrated electronic and electrical architecture), Tesla uses the OTA of the whole vehicle as a bridge to realize the continuous upgrade and common use of cars. To sum up the intelligence level of Tesla cars in one sentence, it is to truly upgrade the car from a \"functional machine\" to a \"smart machine\". Observing the industry, we can see that traditional car companies are also catching up and copying Tesla's vehicle OTA capabilities, but we think they are more similar in appearance than in spirit. The biggest problem for traditional car companies doing complete vehicle OTA is that they are essentially To B companies and do not directly face users. \"Users\" are channel dealer networks, so they cannot hear a lot of voices from users. Not to mention the subsequent opening up of the front-end voice from users and the research and development of the back-end engineering department, and then completing the continuous iteration and upgrade of the vehicle based on the vehicle OTA. Compared with the To B attributes of traditional car companies, Tesla is more like a TO C technology company in terms of corporate culture, organizational structure, technical level, etc., and it is also better able to upgrade cars from \"functional machines\" to \"smart machines\".</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204354004v235ugntdz5ads9\"/><strong>Reason</strong></p><p><strong>Software business contributes to the future<span>GROSS PROFIT</span></strong></p><p>Tesla is really becoming more and more like Apple, and its software business (FSD) is expected to contribute 1/4 of the gross profit of the automotive business in 2025. In our report \"Epoch-making New Species: Tesla is More and More Like Apple\" released in February 2020, we repeatedly emphasized that Tesla is the \"Apple\" of the automotive industry, and software will be the core component of its business model. Through the quantitative analysis mentioned above, we predict that Tesla's software business (FSD) is expected to contribute 1/4 of the gross profit of the automotive business in 2025, and the financial data will also better reflect Tesla's software and technology attributes.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204354704v235q02n30wbh2r\"/>Where did the idea of software-defined Tesla come from</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204354993v235710f2oqpt8v\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204355344v235gb69svccres\"/><strong>Secrets hidden in earnings reports</strong></p><p><strong>Software cash revenue accumulates over US $1 billion</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204356108v235yweivmdlt0s\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204356740v235068ingncaht\"/>Autopilot FSD is Tesla's core application software. At present, Tesla has not separately disclosed the revenue of its software business in its financial report. Analyzing the company's business details, we can divide its software revenue into three parts, specifically:</p><p><strong>01</strong></p><p>Autopilot FSD (Full Self-Driving)</p><p>Fully autonomous driving option package</p><p>Tesla's famous self-driving function can also be said to be the soul of Tesla cars. After paying for activation, consumers can enjoy advanced automatic driving functions including automatic parking, automatic assisted navigation driving, intelligent summoning, etc., and the automatic driving capabilities can be continuously upgraded through OTA over-the-air software. On July 1, 2020, its price has risen to US $8,000/set (64,000 yuan/set domestically).</p><p><strong>02</strong></p><p>OTA paid upgrade</p><p>Tesla's previous OTA upgrades to software were basically provided free of charge. Since 2019, Tesla has actively tried OTA paid upgrades. A typical case is the \"Acceleration Boost\" acceleration performance upgrade package. Model 3 owners only need to pay $3,000 to improve the car's acceleration performance from 4.6 seconds to 4.1 seconds.</p><p><strong>03</strong></p><p>Advanced Internet of Vehicles functions</p><p>Starting from Q4 of 2019, Tesla has started charging for advanced Internet of Vehicles connection services (US $9.9/month) for the first time. After paying the service fee, car owners can use advanced Internet of Vehicles functions such as real-time road conditions, karaoke, and streaming media.</p><p>Among them, the two businesses of OTA paid upgrades and advanced Internet of Vehicles functions are software businesses that Tesla has gradually developed since 2019. At this stage, FSD is Tesla's core application software, and its software revenue is mainly contributed by the FSD optional package.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204407832v235fhgs7sa2ab9\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204408413v235cfciyovp135\"/><strong>Key Variables Revealing Tesla's FSD Revenue</strong></p><p><strong>Deferred income</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204409706v235t0e1t2th79x\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204415460v2356myg2e5m990\"/>Since Tesla does not disclose the revenue volume of FSD in its financial report, investors lack an open and transparent way to track its business development. After an in-depth analysis of Tesla's financial report, we found the core variable that can reveal Tesla's FSD revenue-deferred revenue. Tesla's CFO Zachary Kirkhorn disclosed the concept of software \"deferred revenue\" at the 2020 Q1 performance explanation meeting and gave a detailed introduction to the financial recognition rules of FSD revenue:</p><p>1) When consumers choose to activate the FSD kit, Tesla will receive $6,000 (now up to $8,000) in cash, half of which the company will recognize as current revenue and the other half as deferred revenue.</p><p>2) The recognition rule for subsequent revenue is that when Tesla adds a new function to FSD, the balance of deferred revenue can be converted into current revenue. For example, in Q3 2019, the company added a new feature Smart Summon to FSD, so it recognized US $30 million in deferred revenue in the quarter.</p><p>According to Zachary Kirkhorn, as of Q1 2020, Tesla's FSD deferred revenue has exceeded US $600 million.</p><p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/rPn8EmBF38piaJmickz0F39KV1iaicJhSQ9uggawzngkRWyz5Hr75a9EvfArNDwqWHzQd0Klb3MNF8picYRZSKiaxK2w/640?wx_fmt=png\"/>Based on the core variable-deferred revenue, we can back-calculate that Tesla's FSD activation rate exceeds 25% through the checking relationship, and the cumulative cash revenue of FSD exceeds US $1 billion. According to the checking relationship shown in the figure below, through the key variable-deferred revenue, we can back-calculate Tesla's FSD activation rate and accumulated FSD cash revenue. We estimate that the overall activation rate of Tesla's FSD will exceed 25%, and the cumulative cash income of FSD will reach US $1.26 billion, of which FSD's cash in 2019 will reach US $560 million.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204433081v235o6hndmu6rr9\"/>Multiple data support that the above-mentioned estimated Tesla FSD activation rate and cash income are basically consistent with the actual situation. 1) According to the US technology media Electrek, as of 2019, Tesla's revenue from the sale of FSD kits has exceeded US $1 billion. 2）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>(Deutsche Bank) predicted in the Tesla report \"Positive takeaways from Tesla investor meetings\" issued on May 11, 2020 that the overall activation rate of Tesla FSD is roughly 25%-30%, and it is mainly concentrated in the US market. 3）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>) In the Tesla report \"Tesla: In 5 Key Debates\" issued on October 2, 2019, it is estimated that the overall activation rate of Tesla FSD is roughly around 30%.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204444114v235kviq2e3vh21\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204444845v235f9eokw4a7dm\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204445420v235ncms5bwwpbr\"/><strong>Future Forecasts</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204445889v235j46c51267oi\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204446515v235ylnm66nr60q\"/>The analysis framework of the commercial potential of Tesla's software business-in the short term, it mainly depends on the continuous improvement of the three major variables of car sales, activation rate, and unit price, and on the changes of business models in the medium and long term. From Musk's perspective, selling cars is just the beginning, and software service charges are its core business model in the future. For the assessment of the commercial potential of Tesla's software business (Note: This article focuses on the FSD business, and will not analyze other software businesses such as OTA paid upgrades and advanced Internet of Vehicles for the time being), we believe that it can be considered from two dimensions: short-term and medium-and long-term:</p><p>1) Short-term: Without changing the business model of one-time charge for pre-installation, Tesla's software business is mainly driven by three major variables: car sales, activation rate, and unit price</p><p>2) Medium and long-term: Musk is actively promoting the transformation of FSD from a one-time pre-installation charging model to a continuous charging model for subscription services. According to technology media electrek, Tesla is expected to launch an FSD subscription service before the end of the year, priced at about $100 per month. Once the business model transition of the software subscription service is completed, each sales vehicle activated with FSD is expected to contribute continuous cash flow to Tesla.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204453320v235dzotu4s5893\"/>In the short term, we expect FSD's revenue to be nearly US $7 billion in 2025, accounting for nearly 9% of Tesla's automotive business revenue and contributing 25% of the gross profit of the automotive business. Based on the previous analysis of the three major variables of car sales, activation rate, and unit price, we have made a financial forecast for Tesla's FSD revenue (see Appendix 2 for detailed data). It is estimated that FSD revenue will be nearly 7 billion US dollars in 2025, accounting for nearly 9% of Tesla's automotive business revenue, contributing 25% of the gross profit of the automotive business.</p><p>In the medium and long term, FSD will most likely switch to a business model of software subscription services. It is estimated that subscription service revenue in 2030 is expected to exceed US $16 billion per year. Under the software subscription service model, the early consumption threshold of FSD is further lowered, which is conducive to increasing the purchase rate of consumers, and is also in line with the business model of continuous software charging advocated by Musk. In the future, FSD will most likely switch to a software subscription service business model. Based on the software subscription service model, we predict that Tesla will have more than 18 million existing car owners in 2030, of which nearly 80% will become subscription paying users of FSD, and the subscription service fee of FSD will reach US $16 billion per year.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204454572v235ewchfvj37nu\"/>Different from traditional analysis, through quantitative analysis of Tesla's software business, we can clearly see the value of the software business represented by autonomous driving to OEMs. We believe that Tesla is just the beginning of the wave of intelligence and connectivity in the automotive industry. Driven by 5G + AI, the investment opportunities of the great wave of transformation in the automotive electronics industry may be even more amazing than those of Apple's industry chain 10 years ago!</p><p><strong>DISCLAIMER</strong></p><p>This report is only for customers of Essence Securities Co., Ltd. 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If it is quoted or published with the consent of the Company, it shall be used within the permitted scope, and the source shall be indicated as \"Research Center of Essence Securities Co., Ltd.\", and this report shall not be quoted, abridged or modified in any way that is contrary to the original intention.</p><p>Essence Securities Co., Ltd. has the sole right to amend and finally interpret the terms of this statement.</p><p></article></body></html></p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What is the real confidence of Tesla's price reduction? -Software! Software! 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Software! Software!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">计算机司令部</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-01-03 20:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><article>Event Review</p><p>January 1, 2021,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It was officially announced that the Chinese-made Model Y and the new Model 3 were officially released. According to Tesla China's official website, the starting price of the Model Y long-range version is 339,900 yuan, which was previously 488,000 yuan, a decrease of 148,100 yuan. The starting price of the Model Y Performance high-performance version is 369,900 yuan, which was previously 535,000 yuan, a decrease of 165,100 yuan. In addition, Tesla released a facelifted domestically produced Model 3. Among them, the upgraded Model 3 (standard battery life version) adds electric tailgate, heat pump air conditioning, double-layer soundproof glass and other configurations compared with the old model, and the price remains at 249,900 yuan; The long-range Model 3, which was originally priced at 309,900 yuan, was removed from the shelves, and the price of the high-performance Model 3 dropped from 419,000 yuan to 339,900 yuan.</p><p>The drop of more than 100,000 yuan has allowed Model Y to directly reach the price range of some of the main models of domestic new forces, which has also brought greater competitive pressure to domestic new energy car companies. There are reports that some car owners even unsubscribed to domestic new power models they had previously subscribed overnight and set their sights on Tesla.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204309124v235rhls52ohefz\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204312572v2353cmf474o1yu\"/>Source: Tesla official website, Essence Securities Research Center</p><p>Possible reasons behind the price cut</p><p><strong>Reason</strong></p><p><strong>Lower costs after continuous innovation?</strong></p><p>Tesla learned from the problem of excessive redundancy in the frame design of Model 3, simplified the body structure of Model Y, improved the integration of the car body, accelerated production, and reduced production costs. Model Y uses a large number of casting processes in the low center of gravity, solid structure and collision protection of the body-in-white. Compared with Model 3, the body-in-white parts are greatly reduced. Although the standard battery life version of Model Y has not yet been launched because the battery life does not meet Musk standards, the use of lithium iron phosphate batteries, supplemented by the experience of optimizing software and efficiency to improve the cruising range, may help the standard battery life version of Model Y break through the 230-mile cruising range limit, to achieve listing sales and lower the price of Model Y. In addition, the current domestic version of Model Y uses LG's ternary lithium battery, which is relatively costly and will be equipped later<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>The cost of Model Y, a domestic version of lithium iron phosphate battery, is expected to fall further.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204314011v235700jrq7rogb\"/><strong>Reason</strong></p><p><strong>A benign closed loop after continuous price cuts?</strong></p><p>Data show that in the second half of 2019, the price of the standard battery life version Model 3 has been adjusted five times, and the adjusted prices are 355,800/299,100/303,600/271,500/249,900 respectively. Model 3 has become the most cost-effective in China. One of the high-end mid-size cars; In addition, the price of the long-range Model 3 launched in May 2020 has also been adjusted once. It can be seen that every price reduction of domestic Model 3 will bring about an increase in sales. In November 2020, the sales volume of Model 3 has exceeded 20,000 units, and the cumulative sales volume of domestic Model 3 from January to November 2020 reached 115,400 units. Continuous price cuts have driven sales to rise, rapidly increasing Tesla's ownership in China. In addition, Tesla's continuous product innovation and optimized practicality have attracted more consumers, forming a virtuous circle.</p><p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/rPn8EmBF38piaJmickz0F39KV1iaicJhSQ9ud7TvDIiaJykTAGDUQ7IOsyDzPA0L9dk59e3PDyQHvfQAcicVLibhSnpUQ/640?wx_fmt=png\"/>We think Tesla's real confidence in price cuts</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204329887v235o9p38wsli2k\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204330865v235pyzyojl3t0p\"/><strong>Software! Software! Software!</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204331825v235v6kt484tdbm\"/><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/rPn8EmBF38piaJmickz0F39KV1iaicJhSQ9uzUgEygftib3uEVyJOPgXgGv1iaXdcDjRdGopZXuHIzgTiaf7A42ygwADA/640?wx_fmt=gif\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204352904v235gifmh82rey7\"/><strong>Reason</strong></p><p><strong>The business model is accelerating to \"Apple</strong>Fruit \"closer</p><p>Compared with traditional car companies, Tesla is more like a TO C technology company. We pointed out in our previous report that the Tesla class \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>\"The cornerstone of the establishment of the business model is to create an epoch-making<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Automobile, the representative of new domestic forces in car manufacturing<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Founder Li Xiang once commented: \"Tesla is currently the only smart car in the world.\" Based on software + hardware (highly integrated electronic and electrical architecture), Tesla uses the OTA of the whole vehicle as a bridge to realize the continuous upgrade and common use of cars. To sum up the intelligence level of Tesla cars in one sentence, it is to truly upgrade the car from a \"functional machine\" to a \"smart machine\". Observing the industry, we can see that traditional car companies are also catching up and copying Tesla's vehicle OTA capabilities, but we think they are more similar in appearance than in spirit. The biggest problem for traditional car companies doing complete vehicle OTA is that they are essentially To B companies and do not directly face users. \"Users\" are channel dealer networks, so they cannot hear a lot of voices from users. Not to mention the subsequent opening up of the front-end voice from users and the research and development of the back-end engineering department, and then completing the continuous iteration and upgrade of the vehicle based on the vehicle OTA. Compared with the To B attributes of traditional car companies, Tesla is more like a TO C technology company in terms of corporate culture, organizational structure, technical level, etc., and it is also better able to upgrade cars from \"functional machines\" to \"smart machines\".</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204354004v235ugntdz5ads9\"/><strong>Reason</strong></p><p><strong>Software business contributes to the future<span>GROSS PROFIT</span></strong></p><p>Tesla is really becoming more and more like Apple, and its software business (FSD) is expected to contribute 1/4 of the gross profit of the automotive business in 2025. In our report \"Epoch-making New Species: Tesla is More and More Like Apple\" released in February 2020, we repeatedly emphasized that Tesla is the \"Apple\" of the automotive industry, and software will be the core component of its business model. Through the quantitative analysis mentioned above, we predict that Tesla's software business (FSD) is expected to contribute 1/4 of the gross profit of the automotive business in 2025, and the financial data will also better reflect Tesla's software and technology attributes.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204354704v235q02n30wbh2r\"/>Where did the idea of software-defined Tesla come from</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204354993v235710f2oqpt8v\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204355344v235gb69svccres\"/><strong>Secrets hidden in earnings reports</strong></p><p><strong>Software cash revenue accumulates over US $1 billion</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204356108v235yweivmdlt0s\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204356740v235068ingncaht\"/>Autopilot FSD is Tesla's core application software. At present, Tesla has not separately disclosed the revenue of its software business in its financial report. Analyzing the company's business details, we can divide its software revenue into three parts, specifically:</p><p><strong>01</strong></p><p>Autopilot FSD (Full Self-Driving)</p><p>Fully autonomous driving option package</p><p>Tesla's famous self-driving function can also be said to be the soul of Tesla cars. After paying for activation, consumers can enjoy advanced automatic driving functions including automatic parking, automatic assisted navigation driving, intelligent summoning, etc., and the automatic driving capabilities can be continuously upgraded through OTA over-the-air software. On July 1, 2020, its price has risen to US $8,000/set (64,000 yuan/set domestically).</p><p><strong>02</strong></p><p>OTA paid upgrade</p><p>Tesla's previous OTA upgrades to software were basically provided free of charge. Since 2019, Tesla has actively tried OTA paid upgrades. A typical case is the \"Acceleration Boost\" acceleration performance upgrade package. Model 3 owners only need to pay $3,000 to improve the car's acceleration performance from 4.6 seconds to 4.1 seconds.</p><p><strong>03</strong></p><p>Advanced Internet of Vehicles functions</p><p>Starting from Q4 of 2019, Tesla has started charging for advanced Internet of Vehicles connection services (US $9.9/month) for the first time. After paying the service fee, car owners can use advanced Internet of Vehicles functions such as real-time road conditions, karaoke, and streaming media.</p><p>Among them, the two businesses of OTA paid upgrades and advanced Internet of Vehicles functions are software businesses that Tesla has gradually developed since 2019. At this stage, FSD is Tesla's core application software, and its software revenue is mainly contributed by the FSD optional package.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204407832v235fhgs7sa2ab9\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204408413v235cfciyovp135\"/><strong>Key Variables Revealing Tesla's FSD Revenue</strong></p><p><strong>Deferred income</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204409706v235t0e1t2th79x\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204415460v2356myg2e5m990\"/>Since Tesla does not disclose the revenue volume of FSD in its financial report, investors lack an open and transparent way to track its business development. After an in-depth analysis of Tesla's financial report, we found the core variable that can reveal Tesla's FSD revenue-deferred revenue. Tesla's CFO Zachary Kirkhorn disclosed the concept of software \"deferred revenue\" at the 2020 Q1 performance explanation meeting and gave a detailed introduction to the financial recognition rules of FSD revenue:</p><p>1) When consumers choose to activate the FSD kit, Tesla will receive $6,000 (now up to $8,000) in cash, half of which the company will recognize as current revenue and the other half as deferred revenue.</p><p>2) The recognition rule for subsequent revenue is that when Tesla adds a new function to FSD, the balance of deferred revenue can be converted into current revenue. For example, in Q3 2019, the company added a new feature Smart Summon to FSD, so it recognized US $30 million in deferred revenue in the quarter.</p><p>According to Zachary Kirkhorn, as of Q1 2020, Tesla's FSD deferred revenue has exceeded US $600 million.</p><p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/rPn8EmBF38piaJmickz0F39KV1iaicJhSQ9uggawzngkRWyz5Hr75a9EvfArNDwqWHzQd0Klb3MNF8picYRZSKiaxK2w/640?wx_fmt=png\"/>Based on the core variable-deferred revenue, we can back-calculate that Tesla's FSD activation rate exceeds 25% through the checking relationship, and the cumulative cash revenue of FSD exceeds US $1 billion. According to the checking relationship shown in the figure below, through the key variable-deferred revenue, we can back-calculate Tesla's FSD activation rate and accumulated FSD cash revenue. We estimate that the overall activation rate of Tesla's FSD will exceed 25%, and the cumulative cash income of FSD will reach US $1.26 billion, of which FSD's cash in 2019 will reach US $560 million.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204433081v235o6hndmu6rr9\"/>Multiple data support that the above-mentioned estimated Tesla FSD activation rate and cash income are basically consistent with the actual situation. 1) According to the US technology media Electrek, as of 2019, Tesla's revenue from the sale of FSD kits has exceeded US $1 billion. 2）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>(Deutsche Bank) predicted in the Tesla report \"Positive takeaways from Tesla investor meetings\" issued on May 11, 2020 that the overall activation rate of Tesla FSD is roughly 25%-30%, and it is mainly concentrated in the US market. 3）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>) In the Tesla report \"Tesla: In 5 Key Debates\" issued on October 2, 2019, it is estimated that the overall activation rate of Tesla FSD is roughly around 30%.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204444114v235kviq2e3vh21\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204444845v235f9eokw4a7dm\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204445420v235ncms5bwwpbr\"/><strong>Future Forecasts</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204445889v235j46c51267oi\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204446515v235ylnm66nr60q\"/>The analysis framework of the commercial potential of Tesla's software business-in the short term, it mainly depends on the continuous improvement of the three major variables of car sales, activation rate, and unit price, and on the changes of business models in the medium and long term. From Musk's perspective, selling cars is just the beginning, and software service charges are its core business model in the future. For the assessment of the commercial potential of Tesla's software business (Note: This article focuses on the FSD business, and will not analyze other software businesses such as OTA paid upgrades and advanced Internet of Vehicles for the time being), we believe that it can be considered from two dimensions: short-term and medium-and long-term:</p><p>1) Short-term: Without changing the business model of one-time charge for pre-installation, Tesla's software business is mainly driven by three major variables: car sales, activation rate, and unit price</p><p>2) Medium and long-term: Musk is actively promoting the transformation of FSD from a one-time pre-installation charging model to a continuous charging model for subscription services. According to technology media electrek, Tesla is expected to launch an FSD subscription service before the end of the year, priced at about $100 per month. Once the business model transition of the software subscription service is completed, each sales vehicle activated with FSD is expected to contribute continuous cash flow to Tesla.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204453320v235dzotu4s5893\"/>In the short term, we expect FSD's revenue to be nearly US $7 billion in 2025, accounting for nearly 9% of Tesla's automotive business revenue and contributing 25% of the gross profit of the automotive business. Based on the previous analysis of the three major variables of car sales, activation rate, and unit price, we have made a financial forecast for Tesla's FSD revenue (see Appendix 2 for detailed data). It is estimated that FSD revenue will be nearly 7 billion US dollars in 2025, accounting for nearly 9% of Tesla's automotive business revenue, contributing 25% of the gross profit of the automotive business.</p><p>In the medium and long term, FSD will most likely switch to a business model of software subscription services. It is estimated that subscription service revenue in 2030 is expected to exceed US $16 billion per year. Under the software subscription service model, the early consumption threshold of FSD is further lowered, which is conducive to increasing the purchase rate of consumers, and is also in line with the business model of continuous software charging advocated by Musk. In the future, FSD will most likely switch to a software subscription service business model. Based on the software subscription service model, we predict that Tesla will have more than 18 million existing car owners in 2030, of which nearly 80% will become subscription paying users of FSD, and the subscription service fee of FSD will reach US $16 billion per year.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204454572v235ewchfvj37nu\"/>Different from traditional analysis, through quantitative analysis of Tesla's software business, we can clearly see the value of the software business represented by autonomous driving to OEMs. We believe that Tesla is just the beginning of the wave of intelligence and connectivity in the automotive industry. Driven by 5G + AI, the investment opportunities of the great wave of transformation in the automotive electronics industry may be even more amazing than those of Apple's industry chain 10 years ago!</p><p><strong>DISCLAIMER</strong></p><p>This report is only for customers of Essence Securities Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as the \"Company\"). The Company does not regard any institution or individual as an ex officio customer of the Company because they have received this report.</p><p>This report is based on published information or information, but the Company does not guarantee the completeness and accuracy of such information and information. The information, information, suggestions and speculations contained in this report only reflect the judgment of the Company as at the date of publication of this report, and the price, value and income generated from the securities or investment subject matter in this report may fluctuate. From time to time, the Company may write and publish reports that are inconsistent with the information, recommendations and speculations contained in this report. The Company does not guarantee that the information and materials contained in this report will be kept up-to-date. The Company will supplement, update and revise relevant information and materials at any time, but does not guarantee that they will be publicly released in a timely manner. At the same time, the Company has the right to modify the information contained in this report without notice, and investors should pay attention to the corresponding updates or modifications by themselves. Any summary or excerpt of this report does not represent the official and complete views of this report, and all of them shall be subject to the complete version of this report issued by the Company to the clients. If necessary, the clients can consult the investment advisor of the Company for further consultation.</p><p>Where permitted by law, the Company and its affiliated institutions may hold securities or options issued by the companies mentioned in the report and conduct securities or options transactions, and may also provide or seek to provide investment banking, financial advisory or financial products and other related services to these companies, so as to draw the full attention of customers. Customers should not regard this report as the sole reference factor for making their investment decisions, nor should they consider this report as a substitute for their own investment judgment and decision-making. Under no circumstances does the information or opinions expressed in this report constitute investment advice to anyone. Whether express or implied, this report cannot be used as moral, responsible or legal basis or evidence. Under no circumstances shall the Company be liable to any person for any loss caused by the use of any contents in this report.</p><p>The copyright of this report is solely owned by our company. Without prior written permission, no organization or individual may reproduce, reproduce, publish, forward or quote any part of this report in any form. If it is quoted or published with the consent of the Company, it shall be used within the permitted scope, and the source shall be indicated as \"Research Center of Essence Securities Co., Ltd.\", and this report shall not be quoted, abridged or modified in any way that is contrary to the original intention.</p><p>Essence Securities Co., Ltd. has the sole right to amend and finally interpret the terms of this statement.</p><p></article></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021010320445579aebd59&s=b\">计算机司令部</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/775d1226e1a74151383a7d012e179b82","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021010320445579aebd59&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2100365559","content_text":"事件回顾2021年1月1日，特斯拉正式宣布，中国制造Model Y以及全新Model 3正式发售。特斯拉中国官网显示，Model Y长续航版起售价为33.99万元，此前为48.8万元，下调了14.81万元。Model Y Performance高性能版起售价为36.99万元，此前为53.5万元，下调了16.51万元。此外，特斯拉发售改款国产Model 3，其中，升级版Model 3（标准续航版）较老款新增电动尾门、热泵空调、双层隔音玻璃等配置，售价仍保持24.99万元；原售价为30.99万元的长续航版Model 3被下架，高性能版Model 3售价从41.90万元下降至33.99万元。10多万元的降幅让Model Y直接杀到了国产新势力部分主力车型的价格区间，这也给国内新能源车企带来更大竞争压力。有报道称，有车主甚至连夜退订此前认购的国产新势力车型，并将目光投向特斯拉。资料来源：特斯拉官网，安信证券研究中心降价背后的可能原因Reason持续创新后的更低成本？特斯拉汲取了Model 3在车架设计过度冗余的问题，简化了Model Y的车身结构，提升了车体的一体化程度，加快生产速度，并降低了生产成本。Model Y在白车身的低重心、坚固结构和碰撞保护方采用了大量铸造工艺，相比Model 3，白车身零件大幅减少。尽管标准续航版Model Y因续航未达马斯克标准而尚未推出，磷酸铁锂电池的使用辅以优化软件与效能提升续航里程的经验，或将帮助标准续航版Model Y突破230英里的续航里程限制，实现上市销售，拉低Model Y售价。此外，目前国产版Model Y 使用的是LG的三元锂电池，成本相对较高，后期搭载宁德时代磷酸铁锂电池的国产版Model Y成本有望进一步走低。Reason持续降价后的良性闭环？有数据表明，2019年下半年，标准续航版Model 3已调整过5次价格，调整后的到手价格分别为35.58万/29.91万/30.36万/27.15万/24.99万， Model 3一跃成为国内最具性价比的高端中型轿车之一；此外，2020年5月推出的长续航版Model 3也已经调整过1次价格。可以看到，国产Model 3的每一次降价均会带来销量的提升，2020年11月Model 3的销量已经突破2万辆，2020年1-11月国产Model 3累计销量达11.54万辆。持续降价带动销量上涨，快速提升了特斯拉在华保有量，加之特斯拉持续不断的产品创新，着力优化的实用性吸引更多的消费者，形成了一个良性循环。我们认为特斯拉降价的真正底气软件！软件！软件！Reason商业模式加速向“苹果”靠拢相比于传统车企，特斯拉更像是TO C的科技公司。我们在前期报告中指出特斯拉类“苹果”商业模式成立的基石是——打造出了划时代的智能汽车，国内新势力造车的代表人理想汽车创始人李想曾评价：“特斯拉是目前世界上唯一的智能汽车”。特斯拉基于软件+硬件（高集成的电子电气架构），以整车OTA为桥梁，可以实现汽车的持续升级和常用常新。一句话概括特斯拉汽车的智能化水平，就是真正把汽车从“功能机”升级为“智能机”。观察产业，可以看到传统车企也在奋起直追，复制特斯拉的整车OTA能力，但我们认为更多的是形似而神不似。传统车企做整车OTA的最大问题是，他们本质上还是To B 的公司，并不直接面对用户，“用户”是渠道经销商网络，因而也听不到大量的来自用户端的声音。更勿论随之而来的打通前端来自用户的声音和后端工程部门的研发，进而基于整车 OTA 完成车辆的持续迭代与升级了。相对于传统车企的To B属性，特斯拉从企业文化、组织结构、技术水平等方面来看，更像是TO C的科技公司，也更能实现将汽车从“功能机”升级为“智能机”。Reason软件业务贡献未来毛利特斯拉真的越来越像苹果了，其软件业务（FSD）有望在2025年将贡献汽车业务毛利的1/4。在2020年2月我们发布的报告《划时代新物种：特斯拉越来越像苹果了》中，我们反复强调：特斯拉就是汽车界的“苹果”，软件会是其商业模式核心组成部分。通过前文的量化分析，我们预测特斯拉的软件业务（FSD）有望在2025年将贡献汽车业务毛利的1/4，从财务数据上也将更反应特斯拉的软件和科技属性。以软件定义特斯拉的想法从何而来隐藏在财报中的秘密软件现金收入累积超10亿美元自动驾驶Autopilot FSD是特斯拉最核心的应用软件。特斯拉目前并未在其财报中单独披露软件业务的收入，分析公司的业务明细，我们可以把其软件收入组成分为三块，具体而言：01Autopilot FSD（Full Self-Driving）完全自动驾驶选装包特斯拉著名的自动驾驶的功能，也可以说是特斯拉汽车的灵魂。消费者付费激活后，可以享受到包括自动泊车、自动辅助导航驾驶、智能召唤等在内的高级自动驾驶功能，而且后续可以通过 OTA 空中软件持续升级自动驾驶能力。2020年7月1号，其价格已经上涨至8000美元/套（国内64000元/套）。02OTA付费升级特斯拉此前对于软件的OTA升级基本上是以免费的形式提供的。2019年以来，特斯拉开始积极尝试OTA付费升级。典型案例就是“Acceleration Boost”加速性能升级包。Model 3车主只要付费3000美元，即可将汽车的百公里加速性能从4.6s提升到4.1s。03高级车联网功能特斯拉从2019年Q4开始，首度开启车联网高级连接服务收费（9.9美元/月），车主支付了服务费后即可使用实时路况、卡拉OK、流媒体等高级车联网功能。其中，OTA付费升级以及高级车联网功能两块业务是特斯拉从2019年开始逐步发力的软件业务。现阶段，FSD是特斯拉最核心的应用软件，其软件收入也主要由FSD选装包贡献。揭示特斯拉FSD收入的关键变量递延收入由于特斯拉并不在财报中披露FSD的收入体量，投资者缺乏公开透明的途径进行跟踪其业务发展情况。在深入分析特斯拉财报之后，我们找到了可以揭示特斯拉FSD收入的核心变量——递延收入。特斯拉的CFO Zachary Kirkhorn在2020年Q1业绩说明会议上，公开了软件“递延收入”的概念，并对FSD收入的财务确认规则进行了详细介绍：1）当消费者选择激活FSD套件后，特斯拉会获得6000美元（现已上涨至8000美元）的现金，公司会将其中一半确认为当期收入，另一半则记为递延收入。2）后续收入的确认规则为，当特斯拉在FSD中新增加一项功能，就可将递延收入余额部分转换为当期收入。举例而言，2019年Q3，公司在FSD中添加了新功能Smart Summon（智能召唤），因此在当季度确认了3000万美元的递延收入。根据Zachary Kirkhorn披露，截止2020年Q1，特斯拉的FSD递延收入已经超过6亿美元。基于核心变量——递延收入，我们可以通过勾稽关系反算出特斯拉FSD激活率超25%，FSD 累计现金收入超10亿美元。根据下图所示的勾稽关系，通过关键变量——递延收入，我们可以反算出特斯拉FSD激活率以及累积FSD的现金收入。我们预计特斯拉FSD的整体激活率超25%，FSD 累计现金收入达到12.6亿美元，其中FSD在2019年的现金达到5.6亿美元。多方数据佐证，上述预计的特斯拉FSD激活率及现金收入与现实情况基本相符。1）根据美国科技媒体Electrek报道，截至2019年，特斯拉通过出售FSD套件获得的收入已经超过了10亿美元。2）德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)在2020年5月11日出具的特斯拉报告《Positive takeaways from Tesla investor meetings》中预测——特斯拉FSD整体的激活率大致在25%-30%，并且主要集中在美国市场。3）摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）在2019年10月2日出具的特斯拉报告《Tesla: In 5 Key Debates》中预估——特斯拉FSD整体的激活率大致在30%左右。未来预测特斯拉软件业务的商业潜力的分析框架——短期主要看汽车销量、激活率、单价三大变量的持续提升，中长期看商业模式变化。站在马斯克的视角，卖车只是开始，软件服务收费才是其未来最核心的商业模式。对于特斯拉软件业务的商业潜力的评估（附注：本文着重讨论FSD业务，暂不分析OTA付费升级、高级车联网等其他软件业务），我们认为可以从短期和中长期两个维度考虑：1）短期：在不改变前装一次性收费的商业模式的前提下，特斯拉软件业务主要由汽车销量、激活率、单价三大变量驱动2）中长期：马斯克正在积极推动FSD从一次性前装收费的模式转变成订阅服务持续收费的模式。根据科技媒体electrek报道，特斯拉有望在年底前推出FSD订阅服务，价格约为每月100美元。一旦完成软件订阅服务的商业模式转换，每辆激活FSD的销售车辆都有望为特斯拉贡献持续的现金流。短期来看，我们预计2025年FSD的收入将近70亿美元，占特斯拉汽车业务营收的接近9%，贡献25%的汽车业务毛利。综合前文对于汽车销量、激活率、单价三大变量的分析，我们对特斯拉FSD的收入进行了财务预测（详细数据参见附表2），预计2025年FSD的收入将近70亿美元，占特斯拉汽车业务营收的接近9%，贡献25%的汽车业务毛利。中长期来看，FSD将大概率切换成软件订阅服务的商业模式，预计2030年的订阅服务收入有望超过160亿美元/年。软件订阅服务的模式下，FSD前期消费门槛进一步降低，有利于提升消费者的购买率，并且也符合马斯克所倡导的软件持续收费的商业模式，未来FSD将大概率切换成软件订阅服务的商业模式。基于软件订阅服务模式下，我们预测2030年特斯拉将有超过1800万存量车主用户，其中近80%将成为FSD的订阅付费用户，FSD的订阅服务费将达到160亿美元/年。不同于传统的分析，我们通过对特斯拉软件业务的量化分析，可以清晰看到以自动驾驶为代表的软件业务对于整车厂的价值。我们认为，特斯拉只是汽车产业智能化、网联化浪潮的开端，在5G+AI驱动下，汽车电子产业变革大浪潮的投资机会或比10年前苹果产业链更为惊人！免责声明本报告仅供安信证券股份有限公司（以下简称“本公司”）的客户使用。本公司不会因为任何机构或个人接收到本报告而视其为本公司的当然客户。本报告基于已公开的资料或信息撰写，但本公司不保证该等信息及资料的完整性、准确性。本报告所载的信息、资料、建议及推测仅反映本公司于本报告发布当日的判断，本报告中的证券或投资标的价格、价值及投资带来的收入可能会波动。在不同时期，本公司可能撰写并发布与本报告所载资料、建议及推测不一致的报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息及资料保持在最新状态，本公司将随时补充、更新和修订有关信息及资料，但不保证及时公开发布。同时，本公司有权对本报告所含信息在不发出通知的情形下做出修改，投资者应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。任何有关本报告的摘要或节选都不代表本报告正式完整的观点，一切须以本公司向客户发布的本报告完整版本为准，如有需要，客户可以向本公司投资顾问进一步咨询。在法律许可的情况下，本公司及所属关联机构可能会持有报告中提到的公司所发行的证券或期权并进行证券或期权交易，也可能为这些公司提供或者争取提供投资银行、财务顾问或者金融产品等相关服务，提请客户充分注意。客户不应将本报告为作出其投资决策的惟一参考因素，亦不应认为本报告可以取代客户自身的投资判断与决策。在任何情况下，本报告中的信息或所表述的意见均不构成对任何人的投资建议，无论是否已经明示或暗示，本报告不能作为道义的、责任的和法律的依据或者凭证。在任何情况下，本公司亦不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所引致的任何损失负任何责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有，未经事先书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制、发表、转发或引用本报告的任何部分。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为“安信证券股份有限公司研究中心”，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。安信证券股份有限公司对本声明条款具有惟一修改权和最终解释权。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":947,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":333749579,"gmtCreate":1609378153591,"gmtModify":1704978690980,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"bb","listText":"bb","text":"bb","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/333749579","repostId":"339422605","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":339422605,"gmtCreate":1609042156407,"gmtModify":1704977217721,"author":{"id":"3502662293881250","authorId":"3502662293881250","name":"安心睡大觉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5644d6d3b2f1f98162851b875f4d8ac5","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3502662293881250","idStr":"3502662293881250"},"themes":[],"title":"比特幣的價值與缺陷","htmlText":"但斌的茅臺，南非、張磊的騰訊，孫正義的阿里，李笑來的比特幣。這些都是投資的封頂之作，收益率都高的驚人。比特幣上漲倍數是四個最高的，我熟悉茅臺、騰訊的價值，暫時沒搞清楚阿里的核心價值，但對比特幣的價值一無所知。知道比特幣是2017年初的時候，印象特別深的是郎鹹平那一期《五問比特幣》，認爲比特幣毫無價值。我當時研究後的核心疑問有兩點：1、比特幣作爲貨幣，背後沒有主權信用背書，價值在哪？2、比特幣背後是一種永久性不公平，前面的人獲得了大量財富，越後面來的越是傻瓜，要讓大多數人接受，無外乎將手中的別墅換成了最初投資者手中的一美元鋼鏰。2018年底我終於遇到了在幣圈投資的同事，那一年比特幣價格相較於以前下降了不少，我將這兩個問題拋給他，沒有得到很好地回答。只是隱約感覺有價值。直到最近，比特幣價格暴漲到2.6萬美元一個，大連一家三口因爲比特幣自殺，研究的老虎證券涉及到未來業務中資金的出入金問題。我纔將比特幣的價值思考明白了。比特幣作爲一個非生產性資產，本身不產生價值。但不能說它就沒價值，它的價值主要體現在兩個方面：1、抗通脹，特別是貨幣通脹。這就抑制了貨幣政策的獨立性，例如美國只要開動印鈔機，無形中掠奪人們財富，那麼就會有更多的人去選擇實物資產。比特幣總量一定，未來肯定不會亂髮，天然抗通脹，成爲了很好替代品。這就是爲何08年之後誕生，2020年疫情之後美國無限量化之後比特幣大漲的原因。2.流動價值，特別是跨境匯款。不得不說比特幣誕生到較大範圍的運用流淌着骯髒的血液，就好比最初的鐵路下埋葬了很多奴工，淘金之路死去的淘金客。比特幣是很好的洗錢工具，如果要逃避監管，比特幣去中心化，可以讓傳統洗錢流失率12%至35%降低到5%以下，行情好的時候甚至可以洗的更多。如今這種流通價值，平常人學習後都能將資金在境內外來去自如，不受監管約束。而這種提高資金自由流動的效率，就是價值。巴菲特也知道，但他在美","listText":"但斌的茅臺，南非、張磊的騰訊，孫正義的阿里，李笑來的比特幣。這些都是投資的封頂之作，收益率都高的驚人。比特幣上漲倍數是四個最高的，我熟悉茅臺、騰訊的價值，暫時沒搞清楚阿里的核心價值，但對比特幣的價值一無所知。知道比特幣是2017年初的時候，印象特別深的是郎鹹平那一期《五問比特幣》，認爲比特幣毫無價值。我當時研究後的核心疑問有兩點：1、比特幣作爲貨幣，背後沒有主權信用背書，價值在哪？2、比特幣背後是一種永久性不公平，前面的人獲得了大量財富，越後面來的越是傻瓜，要讓大多數人接受，無外乎將手中的別墅換成了最初投資者手中的一美元鋼鏰。2018年底我終於遇到了在幣圈投資的同事，那一年比特幣價格相較於以前下降了不少，我將這兩個問題拋給他，沒有得到很好地回答。只是隱約感覺有價值。直到最近，比特幣價格暴漲到2.6萬美元一個，大連一家三口因爲比特幣自殺，研究的老虎證券涉及到未來業務中資金的出入金問題。我纔將比特幣的價值思考明白了。比特幣作爲一個非生產性資產，本身不產生價值。但不能說它就沒價值，它的價值主要體現在兩個方面：1、抗通脹，特別是貨幣通脹。這就抑制了貨幣政策的獨立性，例如美國只要開動印鈔機，無形中掠奪人們財富，那麼就會有更多的人去選擇實物資產。比特幣總量一定，未來肯定不會亂髮，天然抗通脹，成爲了很好替代品。這就是爲何08年之後誕生，2020年疫情之後美國無限量化之後比特幣大漲的原因。2.流動價值，特別是跨境匯款。不得不說比特幣誕生到較大範圍的運用流淌着骯髒的血液，就好比最初的鐵路下埋葬了很多奴工，淘金之路死去的淘金客。比特幣是很好的洗錢工具，如果要逃避監管，比特幣去中心化，可以讓傳統洗錢流失率12%至35%降低到5%以下，行情好的時候甚至可以洗的更多。如今這種流通價值，平常人學習後都能將資金在境內外來去自如，不受監管約束。而這種提高資金自由流動的效率，就是價值。巴菲特也知道，但他在美","text":"但斌的茅臺，南非、張磊的騰訊，孫正義的阿里，李笑來的比特幣。這些都是投資的封頂之作，收益率都高的驚人。比特幣上漲倍數是四個最高的，我熟悉茅臺、騰訊的價值，暫時沒搞清楚阿里的核心價值，但對比特幣的價值一無所知。知道比特幣是2017年初的時候，印象特別深的是郎鹹平那一期《五問比特幣》，認爲比特幣毫無價值。我當時研究後的核心疑問有兩點：1、比特幣作爲貨幣，背後沒有主權信用背書，價值在哪？2、比特幣背後是一種永久性不公平，前面的人獲得了大量財富，越後面來的越是傻瓜，要讓大多數人接受，無外乎將手中的別墅換成了最初投資者手中的一美元鋼鏰。2018年底我終於遇到了在幣圈投資的同事，那一年比特幣價格相較於以前下降了不少，我將這兩個問題拋給他，沒有得到很好地回答。只是隱約感覺有價值。直到最近，比特幣價格暴漲到2.6萬美元一個，大連一家三口因爲比特幣自殺，研究的老虎證券涉及到未來業務中資金的出入金問題。我纔將比特幣的價值思考明白了。比特幣作爲一個非生產性資產，本身不產生價值。但不能說它就沒價值，它的價值主要體現在兩個方面：1、抗通脹，特別是貨幣通脹。這就抑制了貨幣政策的獨立性，例如美國只要開動印鈔機，無形中掠奪人們財富，那麼就會有更多的人去選擇實物資產。比特幣總量一定，未來肯定不會亂髮，天然抗通脹，成爲了很好替代品。這就是爲何08年之後誕生，2020年疫情之後美國無限量化之後比特幣大漲的原因。2.流動價值，特別是跨境匯款。不得不說比特幣誕生到較大範圍的運用流淌着骯髒的血液，就好比最初的鐵路下埋葬了很多奴工，淘金之路死去的淘金客。比特幣是很好的洗錢工具，如果要逃避監管，比特幣去中心化，可以讓傳統洗錢流失率12%至35%降低到5%以下，行情好的時候甚至可以洗的更多。如今這種流通價值，平常人學習後都能將資金在境內外來去自如，不受監管約束。而這種提高資金自由流動的效率，就是價值。巴菲特也知道，但他在美","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7d2c0921a8bdffd18135c7bf47534fc","width":"624","height":"358"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/339422605","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3528966054893519","authorId":"3528966054893519","name":"小虎说英股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b444754ad4cb8cbfaf0dcb4fb2537c79","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3528966054893519","idStr":"3528966054893519"},"content":"Happy New Year!","text":"Happy New Year!","html":"Happy New Year!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373555685,"gmtCreate":1618874812547,"gmtModify":1704716090703,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"elasticity","listText":"elasticity","text":"elasticity","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373555685","repostId":"1147524572","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147524572","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618838733,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147524572?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-19 21:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Alarm goes off! Is the bull market in U.S. stocks already at a high level?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147524572","media":"腾讯美股  ","summary":"总而言之，投资者最好还是尊重一下历史，毕竟标普500指数市盈率攀升到30，且盈利见顶的情况，历史上只在二十年前和现在出现过。诚然，美股牛市可能还会继续一段时间，但是投资者不保持谨慎，不保持警惕，显然是","content":"<p>All in all, investors had better respect history. After all, the P/E of the S&P 500 index climbed to 30 and earnings peaked, which only happened twenty years ago and now in history. Admittedly, the bull market in U.S. stocks may continue for some time, but it is obviously unadvisable for investors not to remain cautious and vigilant.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f413590001cd843da7ab41f47554741\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"718\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On Friday's trading day, encouraged by full confidence in the prospects for economic recovery, the S&P 500 index once again set a new historical closing point record. This also means that the U.S. stock market has reached a delicate node-P/E is extremely high, and earnings per share have reached a historic high. This situation has happened twice in history, in September 2000 and now. Calculated at the closing point of 4185.47 points, the index has reached above 30 relative to the \"normal\" profit (see below).</p><p>At first glance, P/E at 30 doesn't seem terrible. After all, in June last year, the most basic version of P/E, that is, P/E, which is based on the GAAP net profit record in the past four quarters, once reached 31. At that time, the market was about 26% lower than it is now. By the end of the fourth quarter of last year, P/E once reached nearly 40. However, this figure didn't bother Bull Pie at the time. The fact is that the S&P 500 index has entered carnival mode since then.</p><p>The key point is that in the context of the economy being deeply tortured by the epidemic, using profits in a distorted situation to measure whether stock prices are expensive or cheap has completely lost its meaning. For example, from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020, one-third of corporate profits were wiped out, so various valuation indicators have soared to extremely high levels.</p><p>It is obvious that as the epidemic crisis gradually becomes a thing of the past, corporate profits will rebound sharply from their lows. If you want to judge whether the current stock price is in the expensive or cheap range on the price spectrum, and then predict the future direction of the stock market accordingly, you must first get a key reference, \"normalized profits.\" Specifically, when the recovery is finally implemented, the profit S&P companies are most likely to make. Here, earnings per share data for the fourth quarter of 2019, which is $139.47 on an annualized basis, can be used.</p><p>There are two main reasons for selecting the data of 2019. First of all, the profit in 2019 not only set a historical record in absolute height, but also at a historically high level relative to the relative height of sales and other items. This means that it will be greatly more difficult for the real normalized profits to exceed its level in the future. Although Bull Pie may insist that 30's P/E is not a problem, because 2021 profits will even dwarf 2019.</p><p>Secondly, even under the strong economy in 2019, the profit of each quarter has basically not changed much, which means that corporate profits have reached a very high level relative to fundamentals, so there is not much further profit. There is room for growth. Even now, Wall Street analysts, who have always been known for being super optimistic, on the whole, only expect the annualized earnings per share in the second quarter of 2021 to reach $139, which is the same as in the fourth quarter of 2019. In short, in terms of corporate profits, a return to that peak is the most likely scenario in 2021.</p><p>From a historical point of view, the unemployment rate of the S&P 500 index exceeds 30, all of which occur in the cycle of sharp profit decline or even collapse, with the only exception being the present. For example, in the fourth quarter of 1999, when the peak of the Internet bubble was approaching, the index P/E once reached 30.5. At that time, earnings per share were at a historically high level, which was tantamount to releasing an alarm. In fact, investors are offering more than $30 for every dollar of profit, and this profit is already spent force, and it is difficult to go any further.</p><p>Although earnings per share persisted for a while later, reaching a new high of $53.70 in the third quarter of 2000, earnings per share failed to return to that level for four full years. The record profits came as the S&P 500 index also reached a near-record high of 1,518 points on September 1, 2000. At that time, the index had risen by 120% in the previous four years. In short, the most suitable comparison with today may be the period in 2000. After all, the S&P 500 index's earnings per share and points peaked at the same time, only twice.</p><p>Twenty years ago, on September 1, 2000, the traditional P/E of the S&P 500 was 26.75. From this perspective, today's P/E is 30, which is 12% higher than at the beginning. However, P/E alone obviously cannot reflect the panoramic view of the market. For example, if the fundamentals are used as a reference, the earnings per share in 2000 will actually be higher than that in 2021. From this perspective, P/E at that time was actually higher than it looked, because profits were destined to fall, while P/E now is actually lower than it looks, because profit levels will rise sharply.</p><p>Although the various factors that need to be taken into account are complex, with positive and negative interactions, overall, the level of corporate profits in the fourth quarter of 2019 looks similar to that at the peak of the technology bubble, and they are both at the high point in their respective relative cycles, or even The former is even higher. For example, for the whole of 2019, the combined earnings of the S&P 500 index were equivalent to 5.4% of national income, which was one percentage point higher than the 4.4% in the four quarters ending in September 2000. From the perspective of the ratio of operating profit to sales, the so-called operating profit margin, the figure in 2019 reached 11.1%, which is 4 percentage points higher than the cycle twenty years ago. The index's return on equity did be better two decades ago than it did in 2019, though, with 17.5% ahead of 15.5%.</p><p>Although not all, it is obvious that most indicators show that corporate profits in 2019 are relatively higher than those in 2000. Now, let's be conservative and assume that the two are at the same level. All in all, these are the only two periods in the history of U.S. stocks in which P/E reached a very high of around 30, while profits reached historic highs. From this comparison, what clues can we get about the present and future of the S&P 500 index?</p><p>If investors have already entered the market before, it is certainly good news for them that the P/E has climbed to 30 under the stock market boom. However, if investors are ready to enter the market now, or if they are ready to keep holding large US stock indexes without cashing in on their gains, then this is not good news for them. On this point, it couldn't be clearer by looking at what happened after September 1, 2000. The S&P 500 index entered a long downward channel, until it fell to 801 points on March 11, 2003, with a loss of 47% in the process. The index returned to the level of September 2000, seven years later, that is, in September 2007.</p><p>As we all know, after that, due to the global financial crisis, what awaits the index is another new downward channel. By the time it climbed above 1,500 points again, it was already March 2013. In other words, within a twelve-year cycle, if Dividend returns are not calculated, the rate of return that the index can provide investors is a huge zero egg.</p><p>Of course, no one can accurately predict whether the U.S. stock market will encounter a tragedy similar to that after the bursting of the Internet bubble in the future. At present, Niupai's expectation is that U.S. stocks will enter full-speed sailing mode driven by two favorable SF factors, namely, the rapidly growing corporate profits will greatly surpass 2019, and the ultra-low interest rate will continue to be maintained in the next few years, providing continuous support.</p><p>Of course, these two possibilities cannot be completely ruled out, but objectively speaking, they are not very likely things. As for how much benefit to get from both, the probability will be further reduced. First, let's take a look at corporate profits. As mentioned earlier, the peak profit in 2019 is equivalent to 5.4% of national income, climbing to a historic high. If profits grow faster than GDP as expected by Wall Street, it means that the relative proportion of profits needs to be further increased, which is obviously hard to expect.</p><p>What's more, at the end of last week, the ratio of the total market value of the S&P 500 to national income had reached an eye-popping 161%, nearly a quarter higher than the 130% in 2000. The average figure for the past two decades has nearly doubled, which means that it will be more difficult to increase the profit ratio.</p><p>Now, wages are finally starting to rise after years of stagnation, and corporate tax rates are likely to increase significantly during the Biden administration. In this case, further profits are already needed to remain higher than 160% of national income. Yes, it is too difficult to expect profits to expand and expand again.</p><p>As for interest rates, what Bull Pie expects is that in the next few years, the yield of 10-year Treasury Bond will continue to rise slower than the growth rate of GDP. This is the premise of all expectations, but unfortunately, such things have rarely happened in history. The fact is that under normal circumstances, the real interest rate adjusted for inflation will rise at a speed that keeps pace with economic growth \", and the cycle when the real interest rate becomes negative is often extremely short.</p><p>The most reasonable interpretation of today's phenomenon that the rate of return is not even lower than the inflation rate can only be that this is just a historical exception, a special phenomenon that has occurred after the economy has been hit by a severe epidemic that has only happened once in many years.</p><p>All in all, it's best for everyone to respect history. After all, the P/E of the S&P 500 index climbed to 30, and the profit peaked, which only happened twenty years ago and now in history. Admittedly, the bull market in U.S. stocks may continue for some time, but it is obviously unadvisable for investors not to remain cautious and vigilant.</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alarm goes off! Is the bull market in U.S. stocks already at a high level?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlarm goes off! Is the bull market in U.S. stocks already at a high level?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯美股  </strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-19 21:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>All in all, investors had better respect history. After all, the P/E of the S&P 500 index climbed to 30 and earnings peaked, which only happened twenty years ago and now in history. Admittedly, the bull market in U.S. stocks may continue for some time, but it is obviously unadvisable for investors not to remain cautious and vigilant.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f413590001cd843da7ab41f47554741\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"718\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On Friday's trading day, encouraged by full confidence in the prospects for economic recovery, the S&P 500 index once again set a new historical closing point record. This also means that the U.S. stock market has reached a delicate node-P/E is extremely high, and earnings per share have reached a historic high. This situation has happened twice in history, in September 2000 and now. Calculated at the closing point of 4185.47 points, the index has reached above 30 relative to the \"normal\" profit (see below).</p><p>At first glance, P/E at 30 doesn't seem terrible. After all, in June last year, the most basic version of P/E, that is, P/E, which is based on the GAAP net profit record in the past four quarters, once reached 31. At that time, the market was about 26% lower than it is now. By the end of the fourth quarter of last year, P/E once reached nearly 40. However, this figure didn't bother Bull Pie at the time. The fact is that the S&P 500 index has entered carnival mode since then.</p><p>The key point is that in the context of the economy being deeply tortured by the epidemic, using profits in a distorted situation to measure whether stock prices are expensive or cheap has completely lost its meaning. For example, from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020, one-third of corporate profits were wiped out, so various valuation indicators have soared to extremely high levels.</p><p>It is obvious that as the epidemic crisis gradually becomes a thing of the past, corporate profits will rebound sharply from their lows. If you want to judge whether the current stock price is in the expensive or cheap range on the price spectrum, and then predict the future direction of the stock market accordingly, you must first get a key reference, \"normalized profits.\" Specifically, when the recovery is finally implemented, the profit S&P companies are most likely to make. Here, earnings per share data for the fourth quarter of 2019, which is $139.47 on an annualized basis, can be used.</p><p>There are two main reasons for selecting the data of 2019. First of all, the profit in 2019 not only set a historical record in absolute height, but also at a historically high level relative to the relative height of sales and other items. This means that it will be greatly more difficult for the real normalized profits to exceed its level in the future. Although Bull Pie may insist that 30's P/E is not a problem, because 2021 profits will even dwarf 2019.</p><p>Secondly, even under the strong economy in 2019, the profit of each quarter has basically not changed much, which means that corporate profits have reached a very high level relative to fundamentals, so there is not much further profit. There is room for growth. Even now, Wall Street analysts, who have always been known for being super optimistic, on the whole, only expect the annualized earnings per share in the second quarter of 2021 to reach $139, which is the same as in the fourth quarter of 2019. In short, in terms of corporate profits, a return to that peak is the most likely scenario in 2021.</p><p>From a historical point of view, the unemployment rate of the S&P 500 index exceeds 30, all of which occur in the cycle of sharp profit decline or even collapse, with the only exception being the present. For example, in the fourth quarter of 1999, when the peak of the Internet bubble was approaching, the index P/E once reached 30.5. At that time, earnings per share were at a historically high level, which was tantamount to releasing an alarm. In fact, investors are offering more than $30 for every dollar of profit, and this profit is already spent force, and it is difficult to go any further.</p><p>Although earnings per share persisted for a while later, reaching a new high of $53.70 in the third quarter of 2000, earnings per share failed to return to that level for four full years. The record profits came as the S&P 500 index also reached a near-record high of 1,518 points on September 1, 2000. At that time, the index had risen by 120% in the previous four years. In short, the most suitable comparison with today may be the period in 2000. After all, the S&P 500 index's earnings per share and points peaked at the same time, only twice.</p><p>Twenty years ago, on September 1, 2000, the traditional P/E of the S&P 500 was 26.75. From this perspective, today's P/E is 30, which is 12% higher than at the beginning. However, P/E alone obviously cannot reflect the panoramic view of the market. For example, if the fundamentals are used as a reference, the earnings per share in 2000 will actually be higher than that in 2021. From this perspective, P/E at that time was actually higher than it looked, because profits were destined to fall, while P/E now is actually lower than it looks, because profit levels will rise sharply.</p><p>Although the various factors that need to be taken into account are complex, with positive and negative interactions, overall, the level of corporate profits in the fourth quarter of 2019 looks similar to that at the peak of the technology bubble, and they are both at the high point in their respective relative cycles, or even The former is even higher. For example, for the whole of 2019, the combined earnings of the S&P 500 index were equivalent to 5.4% of national income, which was one percentage point higher than the 4.4% in the four quarters ending in September 2000. From the perspective of the ratio of operating profit to sales, the so-called operating profit margin, the figure in 2019 reached 11.1%, which is 4 percentage points higher than the cycle twenty years ago. The index's return on equity did be better two decades ago than it did in 2019, though, with 17.5% ahead of 15.5%.</p><p>Although not all, it is obvious that most indicators show that corporate profits in 2019 are relatively higher than those in 2000. Now, let's be conservative and assume that the two are at the same level. All in all, these are the only two periods in the history of U.S. stocks in which P/E reached a very high of around 30, while profits reached historic highs. From this comparison, what clues can we get about the present and future of the S&P 500 index?</p><p>If investors have already entered the market before, it is certainly good news for them that the P/E has climbed to 30 under the stock market boom. However, if investors are ready to enter the market now, or if they are ready to keep holding large US stock indexes without cashing in on their gains, then this is not good news for them. On this point, it couldn't be clearer by looking at what happened after September 1, 2000. The S&P 500 index entered a long downward channel, until it fell to 801 points on March 11, 2003, with a loss of 47% in the process. The index returned to the level of September 2000, seven years later, that is, in September 2007.</p><p>As we all know, after that, due to the global financial crisis, what awaits the index is another new downward channel. By the time it climbed above 1,500 points again, it was already March 2013. In other words, within a twelve-year cycle, if Dividend returns are not calculated, the rate of return that the index can provide investors is a huge zero egg.</p><p>Of course, no one can accurately predict whether the U.S. stock market will encounter a tragedy similar to that after the bursting of the Internet bubble in the future. At present, Niupai's expectation is that U.S. stocks will enter full-speed sailing mode driven by two favorable SF factors, namely, the rapidly growing corporate profits will greatly surpass 2019, and the ultra-low interest rate will continue to be maintained in the next few years, providing continuous support.</p><p>Of course, these two possibilities cannot be completely ruled out, but objectively speaking, they are not very likely things. As for how much benefit to get from both, the probability will be further reduced. First, let's take a look at corporate profits. As mentioned earlier, the peak profit in 2019 is equivalent to 5.4% of national income, climbing to a historic high. If profits grow faster than GDP as expected by Wall Street, it means that the relative proportion of profits needs to be further increased, which is obviously hard to expect.</p><p>What's more, at the end of last week, the ratio of the total market value of the S&P 500 to national income had reached an eye-popping 161%, nearly a quarter higher than the 130% in 2000. The average figure for the past two decades has nearly doubled, which means that it will be more difficult to increase the profit ratio.</p><p>Now, wages are finally starting to rise after years of stagnation, and corporate tax rates are likely to increase significantly during the Biden administration. In this case, further profits are already needed to remain higher than 160% of national income. Yes, it is too difficult to expect profits to expand and expand again.</p><p>As for interest rates, what Bull Pie expects is that in the next few years, the yield of 10-year Treasury Bond will continue to rise slower than the growth rate of GDP. This is the premise of all expectations, but unfortunately, such things have rarely happened in history. The fact is that under normal circumstances, the real interest rate adjusted for inflation will rise at a speed that keeps pace with economic growth \", and the cycle when the real interest rate becomes negative is often extremely short.</p><p>The most reasonable interpretation of today's phenomenon that the rate of return is not even lower than the inflation rate can only be that this is just a historical exception, a special phenomenon that has occurred after the economy has been hit by a severe epidemic that has only happened once in many years.</p><p>All in all, it's best for everyone to respect history. After all, the P/E of the S&P 500 index climbed to 30, and the profit peaked, which only happened twenty years ago and now in history. Admittedly, the bull market in U.S. stocks may continue for some time, but it is obviously unadvisable for investors not to remain cautious and vigilant.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/LXEEhQeYt9fCEoRvmAPN1g\">腾讯美股  </a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f413590001cd843da7ab41f47554741","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/LXEEhQeYt9fCEoRvmAPN1g","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147524572","content_text":"总而言之，投资者最好还是尊重一下历史，毕竟标普500指数市盈率攀升到30，且盈利见顶的情况，历史上只在二十年前和现在出现过。诚然，美股牛市可能还会继续一段时间，但是投资者不保持谨慎，不保持警惕，显然是不可取的。上周五的交易日当中，在对经济复苏前景的充分信心鼓舞下，标普500指数再度刷新历史收盘点位纪录。这也就意味着，美股市场已经来到一个微妙的节点——市盈率极端高企，每股盈利达到历史性高点，这样的情况史上一共就出现过两次，分别是2000年9月和现在。以4185.47点的收盘点位计算，指数相对于“正常”盈利（见后文）已经来到了30以上。第一眼看上去，30的市盈率似乎也没有多可怕，毕竟去年6月的时候，最基础版本的市盈率，即基于过去四个季度通用会计准则净盈利记录的市盈率，曾经一度达到31，而那时候，大盘的点位较之现在还要低大约26%。到了去年第四季度结束的时候，市盈率，更是一度曾经达到近40。然而，这一数字当时并没有让牛派受到任何困扰，事实就是，标普500指数从那时开始还进入了狂欢派对模式。关键在于，在经济受到疫情深度折磨的大背景下，用扭曲局面下的盈利去度量股票价格到底是昂贵还是低廉，这种做法已经彻底失掉了意义。比如，从2019年第四季度到2020年第四季度，企业盈利有三分之一灰飞烟灭，于是，各种估值指标都因此窜升到了极高的水平。显而易见，伴随疫情危机逐渐成为过去，企业利润将会从低点大幅反弹。想要判断当今的股价到底在价格光谱上处于昂贵还是低廉的区间，进而据此预测股市未来的走向，首先必须得到一个关键的参照物，“正常化利润”。具体而言就是，当复苏最终落实时，标普企业最可能获得的盈利。在这里，可以使用2019年第四季度的每股盈利数据，年化后为139.47美元。选用2019年的数据，主要有两个原因。首先，2019年的利润不但绝对高度创下了历史纪录，而且相对于销售额和其他项目的相对高度，也处在历史性的高水平。这也就意味着，未来真正出现的正常化利润想要超越其水平，难度将大幅提高。尽管牛派可能会坚持说，30的市盈率不成其为问题，因为2021年的利润甚至会让2019年相形见绌。其次，哪怕是在2019年的强势经济之下，每个季度的盈利也基本上没有多大的变化，这就意味着企业利润相对于基本面已经达到了很高的水平，因此盈利已经没有多少进一步增长的空间了。哪怕现在，素来都以超级乐观闻名的华尔街分析师们，整体而言，也不过是预计2021年第二季度的每股盈利年化将达到与2019年第四季度持平的139美元。简而言之，就企业利润而言，重归那个峰值是2021年最可能发生的一幕。历史角度看来，标普500指数失业率超过30，都是发生在盈利大幅下滑，甚至崩溃的周期当中，唯一一个例外就是当下。比如，1999年第四季度，互联网泡沫峰值将至时，指数市盈率曾经达到30.5，而当时，每股盈利又处在历史性的高水平，这就等于释放出了一个警报。投资者事实上就是在为每1美元的盈利开出超过30美元的价格，而这盈利已经是强弩之末，很难再进一步了。虽然每股盈利后来又坚持了一阵子，至2000年第三季度再创新高，达到了53.70美元，但是之后整整四年时间里，每股盈利都再未能回到那个水平。创纪录的利润出现时，标普500指数也在2000年9月1日达到了接近最高纪录的1518点。当时，指数在之前四年当中累计上涨了120%。总之，最适合拿来和当今对比的，也许正是2000年的那段时间。毕竟，标普500指数每股盈利和点位同时达到峰值，只有这么两次。二十年前的2000年9月1日，标普500指数的传统市盈率为26.75。从这个角度来看，今天的市盈率为30，比当初还要高出12%。不过，单单市盈率显然无法体现市场的全景。比如说，如果将基本面拿来参照，则2000年的每股盈利其实要比2021年还要高。从这个角度说，当时的市盈率实质上要比看上去更高，因为利润注定将要走低，而现在的市盈率实质上则比看上去要更低，因为利润水平将会大幅上扬。虽然需要纳入考虑的各种因素错综复杂，积极与消极互见，但是整体而言，企业利润水平2019年第四季度看上去和科技泡沫巅峰时差不多，都是处于各自相对的周期内的高点，甚至前者还要更高一点。比如，2019年全年，标普500指数盈利合计相当于国民收入的5.4%，比起截至2000年9月的四个季度的4.4%还要高出一个百分点。从营业利润相对于销售额的比例，即所谓营业利润率来看，2019年的数字达到了11.1%，比起二十年前的周期更高出4个百分点。不过，二十年前指数的股本回报率确实要好于2019年，以17.5%领先于15.5%。虽然不是所有，但是显然，大多数指标都显示，2019年的企业利润要相对高于2000年，现在姑且保守一点，就假定两者是在同一水平线上。总而言之，这是美股历史上仅有的两段市盈率达到很高的30上下，同时盈利达到历史性高点的周期。从这比较当中，能够得到关于标普500指数当下和未来的怎样的线索呢？如果投资者是之前就已经入场，那么股市大繁荣之下，市盈率一路攀升到30，对于他们而言当然是好消息。不过，如果投资者是现在才准备入场，或者准备不兑现利得，继续持有美国大型股票指数，那对于他们而言，这可就不是什么好消息了。关于这一点，看看2000年9月1日之后发生了什么，就再清楚不过了。标普500指数进入了漫长的下滑通道，直至2003年3月11日跌至801点，过程当中损失幅度达到47%。指数重新回到2000年9月的水平，已经是七年之后，即2007年9月的事情了。众所周知，在那之后，由于全球金融危机的缘故，等待着指数的是又一条新的下滑通道，等到再度攀升到1500点以上，已经是2013年的3月了。换言之，在一段长达十二年的周期之内，如果不计算股息收益的话，指数能够为投资者提供的回报率就是一个巨大的零蛋。当然，美股未来是否会遭遇类似于当年互联网泡沫破灭之后那种暴跌的惨剧，是谁也不可能准确预测到的。目前，牛派的预期是，两大有利的顺丰因素驱动下，美股将进入全速航行模式，这两者即，快速增长的企业利润将大幅超越2019年，以及超低利率在未来几年还将继续保持，不断提供支持。这两个可能性当然都不能完全排除，但是客观而言，又都不是很大概率的事情。至于要从两者当中得到多大好处，则概率还会进一步降低。首先来看看企业利润。如前所述，2019年的峰值利润已经相当于国民收入的5.4%，攀上历史性的高点了。盈利要像华尔街所预计的那样，增速超过国内生产总值，就意味着利润的相对比例还需要进一步提升，这显然很难指望。更何况，上周结束时，标普500强的总市值相对于国民收入的比例已经达到了令人瞠目结舌的161%，比2000年时 的130%还要高出近四分之一，较之过去二十年的平均数字更是高出近一倍，这就意味着，利润占比想要提升，难度还将进一步增大。现在，工资在停滞多年后终于开始上涨，而企业税率很可能在拜登政府任内大幅度提升，在这种情况下，盈利要保持高过国民收入160%的水平，就已经需要利润进一步扩张了，指望利润扩张再扩张，这任务未免太过艰难。至于利率方面，牛派所指望的是，未来几年当中，十年期国债收益率的上涨速度将持续低于国内生产总值的增长速度，这是一切预期的前提，但遗憾的是，这样的事情在历史上极少发生。事实是，根据通货膨胀调整后的真实利率在正常情况下，其上涨速度是与经济增长同步的\"，而真实利率变成负数的周期，往往都极为短暂。今天收益率甚至不及通货膨胀率的现象，最合理的解读只能是，这只是一个历史的例外，是一种经济遭受多少年都仅此一次的严重疫情打击后，出现的特殊现象。总而言之，大家最好还是尊重一下历史，毕竟标普500指数市盈率攀升到30，且盈利见顶的情况，历史上只在二十年前和现在出现过。诚然，美股牛市可能还会继续一段时间，但是投资者不保持谨慎，不保持警惕，显然是不可取的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2522,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343064676,"gmtCreate":1617664536895,"gmtModify":1704701429799,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"rise of empire","listText":"rise of empire","text":"rise of empire","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343064676","repostId":"1148759697","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148759697","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617602084,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148759697?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-05 13:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Microsoft at 46: From Gates building an empire to Nadella's revival","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148759697","media":"新智元","summary":"距离1975年4月4日比尔·盖茨与保罗·艾伦创办微软以来，已经过去了46个年头。微软一路走来，崛起，落幕再到反击，一步步地完成华丽蜕变。\n2021年4月4日，是微软46周岁的生日！\n\n距离1975年比","content":"<p>Since April 4, 1975, Bill Gates and Paul Allen founded<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Since then, 46 years have passed. Along the way, Microsoft has risen, ended and then fought back, completing its gorgeous transformation step by step.</p><p>April 4, 2021 is Microsoft's 46th birthday!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c556eaf14e7888dab1569feac7a8a3ed\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It's been 46 years since Bill Gates and Paul Allen founded Microsoft in 1975.</p><p>Just like a 46-year-old middle-aged man, Microsoft finally survived the midlife crisis and returned to the high-profile and dazzling technology throne with a mature and low-key attitude.</p><p>In order to commemorate those years we have gone through together, Xiaobian rummaged through boxes and cabinets and found out the journey of Microsoft along the way.</p><p><b>The Rise of Empire</b></p><p>When it comes to Microsoft, we have to start with Bill Gates, the man of the hour.</p><p>Bill Gates, 19, should be the most successful Harvard dropout.</p><p>In 1975, Bill Gates dropped out of Harvard University to sell with his high school alum Paul Allen BASIC (Beginners' All-purpose Symbolic Instruction Code). BASIC is a general symbolic instruction code for beginners, and it is a programming language designed for beginners to use.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e3b47fb0cff04e915c75dd116783ea1\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When Gates was still studying at Harvard, they also compiled languages for Altair of MITS Company.</p><p>Later, Gates and Allen moved to Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA, and founded Microsoft Corporation in a local hotel room. In the early days of the company's establishment, the main business of modifying BASIC programs continued to develop.</p><p>So, do you know how Microsoft got its name?</p><p>The word Microsoft consists of two parts: Microcomputer and software.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd1624aa9d27000141305dda2459fa51\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>If you know DOS, this will fully reveal your age!</p><p>In the 1980s,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>The company selected Microsoft to write key operating system software for its new PC-this became a major turning point in Microsoft's development.</p><p>But because time was tight and the program was complicated, Microsoft paid $50,000 from a programmer in Seattle<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDCO\">Patterson</a>I bought the right to use an operating system, and then rewrote it into disk operating system software (MS-DOS).</p><p>MS-DOS is just a single-user, single-task operating system. Systems like Windows 95, Windows 98 and Windows Me use DOS as the operating system carrier.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eb22081c598a5e266f2c4c9401296b4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The popularization of MS-DOS in IBM-PC has achieved great success. Other PC manufacturers wanted to be compatible with IBM, so in the 1980s, it became the standard operating system for PCs.</p><p>In 1995, at the age of 39, Gates ascended the throne of the richest man in the world with a net worth of $12.9 billion. Microsoft's sales revenue that year was $5.9 billion, and its employees reached 17,801.</p><p>In fact, from 1995 to 2007, Gates ranked first in Forbes' list of the world's richest man for 13 consecutive years, becoming the biggest winner in life.</p><p>Cross-century masterpiece: Windows</p><p>On November 10, 1983, the Windows operating system made its debut. The product is an evolution of the MS-DOS operating system and provides a graphical user interface.</p><p>Microsoft Windows 1.0 was officially launched in 1985, ending the command-line era of Microsoft operating systems.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1254e9ffec99643fce081d8cf482fe86\" tg-width=\"770\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Unlike Windows, MS-DOS operates by using commands, and the system runs programs according to the commands entered by the user.</p><p>Whereas Windows 1.0 allows users to point and click to access Windows instead of typing MS-DOS commands.</p><p>The Windows 1.0 operating system released by Microsoft was actually an extension of MS-DOS, which was not popular at the time. With continuous iterations, Windows 3.0 finally ushered in its initial victory.</p><p>It was late 1989 and Microsoft was hard at work to finally finalize the best version of Windows it knew to date.</p><p>Windows 3.0 places a heavy bet on the graphical user interface with a new 3D bevel design and shiny new icons.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ccb74506a615c95fede98719e5a01e7\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As Microsoft said at the time, this is an exciting product.</p><p>After more than two decades of development, Microsoft released the Windows 10 operating system that everyone is using today on July 29th, 2015.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/737fb0e0e36329d02dda162f6217873e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The end of the king</b></p><p>Microsoft in the Ballmer era lost again and again.</p><p>In 2000, Bill Gates handed over the position of CEO to Steve Ballmer, who was once in charge of company operations and day-to-day management.</p><p>He also created a new position for himself: Chief Software Architect.</p><p>Until 2008, Ballmer succeeded Gates as president of Microsoft. During his 13 years in charge of Microsoft, although Ballmer led Microsoft to achieve excellent results: the number of employees increased by three times, the annual revenue increased by four times, and the annual profit increased by ten times.</p><p>However, as the second CEO of Microsoft, Ballmer has suffered a lot of criticism.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47a1c1c6a3202fad77c2295afba1941b\" tg-width=\"611\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>His repeated attempts to lead Microsoft ended in failure. Windows Phone was strangled by iOS and Android, Windows 8 was frequently criticized, and cloud computing was difficult to break through.</p><p>During Ballmer's tenure as CEO of Microsoft, Microsoft's huge potential has penetrated into all aspects of the software industry, and it is simply invincible.</p><p>Windows accounts for more than 90% of the PC operating system market, and Microsoft's huge influence has put great pressure on software peers, pushing itself into the defendant position of antitrust law.</p><p><b>The Empire Strikes Back: The Return of the Age of Kings</b></p><p>In 2014, a 46-year-old Indian, Satya Nadella, officially took over as the third CEO of Microsoft.</p><p>At that time, Microsoft was like a twilight giant, and it was difficult to keep pace with the times, but Nadella single-handedly directed Microsoft's great revival.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7712e4be90659dbfcbf9846d854a78f4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Nadella not only transformed Microsoft's business strategy, but also reformed Microsoft's corporate culture. He has been working to change the way Microsoft operates by changing the way it thinks.</p><p>Up to now, Microsoft's market value has reached 1.83 trillion US dollars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c1f2c20c30d838a32a1308b380d46a2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"749\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the following five years, Nadella led Microsoft to find its direction again.</p><p>Microsoft abolishes former CEO Ballmer's $7.2 billion acquisition<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">Nokia</a>The mobile phone business announced the largest layoffs in history, accounting for 14% of the company's total of more than 120,000 employees worldwide.</p><p>All these trade-offs are to focus on cloud services.</p><p>Under Nadella's leadership, Microsoft cut the budget of its Windows department and built a huge cloud computing business-Microsoft Azure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21984c7ce006e141c0b3fc7c52ef93b5\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Currently, Microsoft's cloud platform Azure has won the favor of many large enterprise customers.</p><p>Office, our Office productivity software, has gradually become a cloud service. It has gained more than 214 million subscribers, who have to pay a subscription fee of $99 every year.</p><p>In the eyes of Microsoft's internal employees, Nadella's transformation of corporate culture has contributed a lot to the company's revival!</p><p>Microsoft, left behind by the previous CEO, is in a serious infighting, with executives fighting for power, and teams shirking responsibility for problems.</p><p>In the book \"Refresh-Rediscovering Business and the Future\", Nadella bluntly stated that business strategy transformation is not his top priority as Microsoft CEO. The CEO is the CEO, but also the cultural executive.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fccecc75731bd7c7a26ad4906aa6762\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>He inspired Microsoft employees to be learn-it-all people.</p><p>From Windows to the cloud, Nadella transformed Microsoft's chariot and achieved Microsoft's trillion-dollar market value.</p><p>Microsoft is 46 years old, and it is still king when it returns.</p>","source":"lsy1569730104218","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft at 46: From Gates building an empire to Nadella's revival</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft at 46: From Gates building an empire to Nadella's revival\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新智元</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-05 13:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Since April 4, 1975, Bill Gates and Paul Allen founded<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Since then, 46 years have passed. Along the way, Microsoft has risen, ended and then fought back, completing its gorgeous transformation step by step.</p><p>April 4, 2021 is Microsoft's 46th birthday!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c556eaf14e7888dab1569feac7a8a3ed\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It's been 46 years since Bill Gates and Paul Allen founded Microsoft in 1975.</p><p>Just like a 46-year-old middle-aged man, Microsoft finally survived the midlife crisis and returned to the high-profile and dazzling technology throne with a mature and low-key attitude.</p><p>In order to commemorate those years we have gone through together, Xiaobian rummaged through boxes and cabinets and found out the journey of Microsoft along the way.</p><p><b>The Rise of Empire</b></p><p>When it comes to Microsoft, we have to start with Bill Gates, the man of the hour.</p><p>Bill Gates, 19, should be the most successful Harvard dropout.</p><p>In 1975, Bill Gates dropped out of Harvard University to sell with his high school alum Paul Allen BASIC (Beginners' All-purpose Symbolic Instruction Code). BASIC is a general symbolic instruction code for beginners, and it is a programming language designed for beginners to use.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e3b47fb0cff04e915c75dd116783ea1\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When Gates was still studying at Harvard, they also compiled languages for Altair of MITS Company.</p><p>Later, Gates and Allen moved to Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA, and founded Microsoft Corporation in a local hotel room. In the early days of the company's establishment, the main business of modifying BASIC programs continued to develop.</p><p>So, do you know how Microsoft got its name?</p><p>The word Microsoft consists of two parts: Microcomputer and software.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd1624aa9d27000141305dda2459fa51\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>If you know DOS, this will fully reveal your age!</p><p>In the 1980s,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>The company selected Microsoft to write key operating system software for its new PC-this became a major turning point in Microsoft's development.</p><p>But because time was tight and the program was complicated, Microsoft paid $50,000 from a programmer in Seattle<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDCO\">Patterson</a>I bought the right to use an operating system, and then rewrote it into disk operating system software (MS-DOS).</p><p>MS-DOS is just a single-user, single-task operating system. Systems like Windows 95, Windows 98 and Windows Me use DOS as the operating system carrier.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eb22081c598a5e266f2c4c9401296b4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The popularization of MS-DOS in IBM-PC has achieved great success. Other PC manufacturers wanted to be compatible with IBM, so in the 1980s, it became the standard operating system for PCs.</p><p>In 1995, at the age of 39, Gates ascended the throne of the richest man in the world with a net worth of $12.9 billion. Microsoft's sales revenue that year was $5.9 billion, and its employees reached 17,801.</p><p>In fact, from 1995 to 2007, Gates ranked first in Forbes' list of the world's richest man for 13 consecutive years, becoming the biggest winner in life.</p><p>Cross-century masterpiece: Windows</p><p>On November 10, 1983, the Windows operating system made its debut. The product is an evolution of the MS-DOS operating system and provides a graphical user interface.</p><p>Microsoft Windows 1.0 was officially launched in 1985, ending the command-line era of Microsoft operating systems.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1254e9ffec99643fce081d8cf482fe86\" tg-width=\"770\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Unlike Windows, MS-DOS operates by using commands, and the system runs programs according to the commands entered by the user.</p><p>Whereas Windows 1.0 allows users to point and click to access Windows instead of typing MS-DOS commands.</p><p>The Windows 1.0 operating system released by Microsoft was actually an extension of MS-DOS, which was not popular at the time. With continuous iterations, Windows 3.0 finally ushered in its initial victory.</p><p>It was late 1989 and Microsoft was hard at work to finally finalize the best version of Windows it knew to date.</p><p>Windows 3.0 places a heavy bet on the graphical user interface with a new 3D bevel design and shiny new icons.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ccb74506a615c95fede98719e5a01e7\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As Microsoft said at the time, this is an exciting product.</p><p>After more than two decades of development, Microsoft released the Windows 10 operating system that everyone is using today on July 29th, 2015.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/737fb0e0e36329d02dda162f6217873e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The end of the king</b></p><p>Microsoft in the Ballmer era lost again and again.</p><p>In 2000, Bill Gates handed over the position of CEO to Steve Ballmer, who was once in charge of company operations and day-to-day management.</p><p>He also created a new position for himself: Chief Software Architect.</p><p>Until 2008, Ballmer succeeded Gates as president of Microsoft. During his 13 years in charge of Microsoft, although Ballmer led Microsoft to achieve excellent results: the number of employees increased by three times, the annual revenue increased by four times, and the annual profit increased by ten times.</p><p>However, as the second CEO of Microsoft, Ballmer has suffered a lot of criticism.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47a1c1c6a3202fad77c2295afba1941b\" tg-width=\"611\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>His repeated attempts to lead Microsoft ended in failure. Windows Phone was strangled by iOS and Android, Windows 8 was frequently criticized, and cloud computing was difficult to break through.</p><p>During Ballmer's tenure as CEO of Microsoft, Microsoft's huge potential has penetrated into all aspects of the software industry, and it is simply invincible.</p><p>Windows accounts for more than 90% of the PC operating system market, and Microsoft's huge influence has put great pressure on software peers, pushing itself into the defendant position of antitrust law.</p><p><b>The Empire Strikes Back: The Return of the Age of Kings</b></p><p>In 2014, a 46-year-old Indian, Satya Nadella, officially took over as the third CEO of Microsoft.</p><p>At that time, Microsoft was like a twilight giant, and it was difficult to keep pace with the times, but Nadella single-handedly directed Microsoft's great revival.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7712e4be90659dbfcbf9846d854a78f4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Nadella not only transformed Microsoft's business strategy, but also reformed Microsoft's corporate culture. He has been working to change the way Microsoft operates by changing the way it thinks.</p><p>Up to now, Microsoft's market value has reached 1.83 trillion US dollars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c1f2c20c30d838a32a1308b380d46a2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"749\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the following five years, Nadella led Microsoft to find its direction again.</p><p>Microsoft abolishes former CEO Ballmer's $7.2 billion acquisition<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">Nokia</a>The mobile phone business announced the largest layoffs in history, accounting for 14% of the company's total of more than 120,000 employees worldwide.</p><p>All these trade-offs are to focus on cloud services.</p><p>Under Nadella's leadership, Microsoft cut the budget of its Windows department and built a huge cloud computing business-Microsoft Azure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21984c7ce006e141c0b3fc7c52ef93b5\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Currently, Microsoft's cloud platform Azure has won the favor of many large enterprise customers.</p><p>Office, our Office productivity software, has gradually become a cloud service. It has gained more than 214 million subscribers, who have to pay a subscription fee of $99 every year.</p><p>In the eyes of Microsoft's internal employees, Nadella's transformation of corporate culture has contributed a lot to the company's revival!</p><p>Microsoft, left behind by the previous CEO, is in a serious infighting, with executives fighting for power, and teams shirking responsibility for problems.</p><p>In the book \"Refresh-Rediscovering Business and the Future\", Nadella bluntly stated that business strategy transformation is not his top priority as Microsoft CEO. The CEO is the CEO, but also the cultural executive.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fccecc75731bd7c7a26ad4906aa6762\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>He inspired Microsoft employees to be learn-it-all people.</p><p>From Windows to the cloud, Nadella transformed Microsoft's chariot and achieved Microsoft's trillion-dollar market value.</p><p>Microsoft is 46 years old, and it is still king when it returns.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/EG0UhC7JbuuFF6EcdIBbpg\">新智元</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/556acfb895c7cc721517dba494c0775b","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/EG0UhC7JbuuFF6EcdIBbpg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148759697","content_text":"距离1975年4月4日比尔·盖茨与保罗·艾伦创办微软以来，已经过去了46个年头。微软一路走来，崛起，落幕再到反击，一步步地完成华丽蜕变。\n2021年4月4日，是微软46周岁的生日！\n\n距离1975年比尔·盖茨(Bill Gates)与保罗·艾伦(Paul Allen)创办微软，已经过去了46个年头。\n就像46岁的中年人，微软终于熬过了中年危机，以成熟低调的姿态重回高调耀眼的科技王座。\n为了纪念共同走过的那些岁月，小编翻箱倒柜，找出了微软一路走来的历程。\n帝国的崛起\n提到微软，还得从比尔·盖茨这一风云人物说起。\n19岁的比尔·盖茨应该是最成功的哈佛辍学者。\n1975年，比尔·盖茨从哈佛大学退学，和他的高中校友保罗·艾伦一起卖BASIC（Beginners' All-purpose Symbolic Instruction Code）。BASIC是「初学者通用符号指令代码」，是一种设计给初学者使用的程序设计语言。\n\n当盖茨还在哈佛读书时，他们还曾为MITS公司的Altair编制语言。\n后来，盖茨和艾伦搬到美国新墨西哥州阿尔伯克基，并在当地一家旅馆房间里创建了微软公司，公司创立初期以修改BASIC程序为主要业务继续发展。\n那么，你知道Microsoft这个名字如何得来的吗？\nMicrosoft一词由「Microcomputer」和「software」两部分组成。\n\n如果你知道DOS，这会充分暴露你的年龄！\n20世纪80年代，IBM公司选中微软为其新PC编写关键的操作系统软件——这成为微软发展中的一个重大转折点。\n但是由于当时时间紧迫，程序复杂，微软便以5万美元的价格从西雅图的一位程序编制者帕特森手中买下了一个操作系统的使用权，再把它改写为磁盘操作系统软件（MS-DOS）。\nMS-DOS只是一个单用户单任务的操作系统，像Windows 95、Windows 98和Windows Me等正是以DOS为操作系统载体。\n\nMS-DOS在IBM-PC机的普及取得了巨大的成功。其他的PC制造者都希望与IBM兼容，因此80年代，它成了PC机的标准操作系统。\n1995年，正值39岁的盖茨以129亿美元身价登顶世界首富的王座。微软当年销售收入为59亿美元，员工达到了17801人。\n实际上从1995年到2007年，盖茨连续13年《福布斯》全球首富排行榜第一，成为最大的人生赢家。\n跨世纪大作：Windows\n1983年11月10日，Windows操作系统首次登台亮相。该产品是MS-DOS操作系统的演进版，并提供了图形用户界面。\nMicrosoft Windows 1.0 于1985年正式推出，结束了微软操作系统的命令行时代。\n\n与Windows不同，MS-DOS通过使用命令来进行操作，系统根据用户输入的命令进行程序的运行。\n而Windows 1.0允许用户指向并单击以访问Windows，而不是键入MS-DOS命令。\n微软发布的Windows 1.0操作系统其实就是对MS-DOS的扩展，在当时没有受到欢迎。随着不断迭代，Windows 3.0终于迎来了最初的胜利。\n那是1989年末，微软正在努力工作，最终敲定了它所知道的迄今为止最好的Windows版本。\nWindows 3.0版通过一个新的3D斜面设计和闪亮的新图标在图形用户界面上投下了重注。\n\n正如微软当时所说，这是一个令人兴奋的产品。\n经过二十多年的发展，微软在2015年7月29日发布了如今大家都在使用的Windows 10操作系统。\n\n王者的落幕\n鲍尔默时代的微软一败再败。\n2000年比尔·盖茨把首席执行官的位置交给了曾经负责公司运营和日常管理的史蒂夫·鲍尔默，\n还给自己创建了一个新的职位：首席软件构架师。\n直到2008年，鲍尔默接替盖茨成为微软的总裁。在执掌微软的13年间，虽然鲍尔默带领微软创下了优秀的成绩：员工数增加3倍，年营收增长4倍，年利润增长10倍。\n但是，作为微软的第二任 CEO，鲍尔默遭受过很多的批评。\n\n他带领着微软的屡次尝试多以失败告终，Windows Phone 遭 iOS、Android 绞杀，Windows 8 频遭诟病，云计算难于突破。\n在鲍尔默出任微软CEO期间，微软的巨大潜力已经渗透到了软件界的方方面面，简直是所向披靡，\nWindows在PC操作系统市场的份额超过90%，微软的巨大影响已经对软件同行构成了极大的压力，把自己推上了反垄断法的被告位置。\n帝国反击：王者时代的归来\n2014年，一位46岁的印度人——萨蒂亚·纳德拉(Satya Nadella)正式接任微软第三任CEO。\n那时的微软犹如一个迟暮的巨人，难以追逐时代的步伐，而纳德拉却一手导演了微软的伟大复兴。\n\n纳德拉不仅仅是转变了微软的商业策略，还改革了微软的企业文化。他一直致力于通过改变微软的思维方式改变其运作方式。\n到现在，微软市值已经达1.83万亿美元。\n\n此后的5年中，纳德拉带领微软重新找到了方向。\n微软裁撤了前CEO鲍尔默以72亿美元收购的诺基亚手机业务，宣布历史上最大规模的裁员，裁员人数占该公司全球12多万名员工总数的14%。\n这一切取舍，全是为了将开发重心放在云端服务上。\n在纳德拉的领导下，微软削减了Windows部门的预算，并且建立了一个庞大的云计算业务——Microsoft Azure。\n\n目前，微软的云平台Azure赢得了许多大型企业客户的青睐。\n我们办公生产力软件Office也逐渐成为一个云服务，它获得了超过2.14亿订阅用户，这些用户每年都要缴纳99美元的订阅费。\n在微软内部员工看来，公司的复兴，纳德拉对企业文化的改造功不可没！\n上任CEO留下的微软正处于严重内斗之中，高管争权，团队之间遇到问题相互推卸责任。\n在《刷新——重新发现商业与未来》一书中，纳德拉直言，「商业策略转型并非他作为微软CEO的第一要务，CEO是首席执行官，更是文化执行官。」\n\n他激励微软员工成为「无所不学」（learn-it-all）的人。\n从Windows到云，纳德拉改造微软战车，成就了微软万亿美元市值。\n微软46岁，归来仍是王者。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340031505,"gmtCreate":1617321307907,"gmtModify":1704698689434,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"industry revolution","listText":"industry revolution","text":"industry revolution","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/340031505","repostId":"357228638","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343067970,"gmtCreate":1617664588690,"gmtModify":1704701430766,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"bubble bang","listText":"bubble bang","text":"bubble bang","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343067970","repostId":"2124543317","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":356767945,"gmtCreate":1616817952187,"gmtModify":1704799383138,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"infrastructure improvemnet by Joe","listText":"infrastructure improvemnet by Joe","text":"infrastructure improvemnet by Joe","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/356767945","repostId":"1170764582","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170764582","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616765445,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170764582?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-26 21:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Detailed explanation of Biden's reconstruction plan: how to build it? How much impact does it have on the stock market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170764582","media":" 一瑜中的","summary":"作者：张瑜 付春生主要观点1.9万亿美元救济落地后，关于拜登基建计划的讨论热度迅速升温。由于计划目前尚未正式公布，本篇报告以拜登在竞选时提出的基建计划和加税计划作为蓝本，从四个角度（必要性、历史比较、","content":"<p>Author: Zhang Yu Fu Chunsheng</p><p><b>Main views</b></p><p>After the $1.9 trillion relief was implemented, discussions about Biden's infrastructure plan heated up rapidly. Since the plan has not yet been officially announced, this report is based on the infrastructure plan and tax increase plan proposed by Biden during the election campaign, and understands Biden's infrastructure and tax increase plan from four perspectives (necessity, historical comparison, specific measures, and impact). Increase taxes in order to get a general understanding of the measures and impacts of future formal reconstruction plans.</p><p>Biden Infrastructure: How to Build it?</p><p><b>1. Is it necessary for the United States to develop infrastructure at present?</b></p><p>Very necessary. First of all, the infrastructure situation is worrying. According to the latest ASCE assessment, the infrastructure in the United States is still mostly below standard, showing serious deterioration. According to the Global Competitiveness Report, the United States ranked 13th in the world in the field of infrastructure in 2019 and 5th in 2002. Second, there is a large-scale investment gap. The total infrastructure investment gap in the next ten years has reached 2.59 trillion US dollars. Finally, the intensity of infrastructure expenditure is far lower than that of major economies. Europe's infrastructure expenditure is equivalent to 5% of GDP, China's infrastructure expenditure accounts for about 8% of GDP, and the United States' only 2.4%. The United States mainly relies on local and state governments for infrastructure investment, but local governments are gradually beyond their reach. As the stock of infrastructure continues to grow, state and local governments have to bear more operating and maintenance costs, and new investment has been declining since the early 2000s.</p><p><b>2. Is there any precedent for the federal government to lead infrastructure investment?</b></p><p>From a historical comparison, Biden infrastructure is the second largest federal infrastructure investment in the United States since the last century. Since the last century, the U.S. federal government has led four rounds of large-scale infrastructure investment. The largest investment is Roosevelt's New Deal, with public works expenditures of $18 billion, accounting for 31% of GDP in 1933; The smallest investment is Obama's ARRA Act, with infrastructure expenditures of US $120 billion, accounting for 0.8% of GDP in 2009. Eisenhower's cost of building interstate highways was $25 billion, accounting for 5.6% of GDP in 1956, and Clinton's information superhighway plan invested a total of 400 billion, accounting for 5.8% of GDP in 1993. The scale of Biden's infrastructure investment is approximately US $1.3 trillion, accounting for 6.1% of GDP in 2019, making it the second largest investment since the last century.</p><p><b>3. What are Biden's specific measures for infrastructure construction?</b></p><p>The plan proposed on Biden's campaign website is $2 trillion over 10 years, accounting for 9.3% of GDP in 2019; Among them, infrastructure investment was US $1.3 trillion, accounting for 6.1% of GDP in 2019. The plan has three key points: 1) The content is very extensive. It covers eight major areas: modern infrastructure, automobile industry development, clean power investment, building renovation and housing construction, clean energy investment, sustainable agriculture, equal community development and manufacturing revitalization. 2) Promoting employment and rebuilding the middle class are the highlights. 3) Keep manufacturing in the United States. Preventing manufacturing relocation is intrinsically consistent with the need to create jobs. It should be noted that the amount of investment in various fields in the plan is still unclear, and only a few projects have put forward clear investment amounts.</p><p><b>4. What impact will Biden's infrastructure have on the US economy?</b></p><p>1) Impact on GDP: In 10 years, the annual infrastructure expenditure is about 130 billion. Estimated based on the output multiplier of 0.4-3 (assessed by the University of Maryland and CBO), the annual additional output contribution to GDP is about 52 billion ~ 390 billion US dollars, which is about 0.2% to 1.8% of nominal GDP in 2019. 2) Impact on employment: Biden's reconstruction plan may create more than 10 million jobs in the United States in the next ten years. 3) Bank of America estimates that Biden's infrastructure plan may bring about GDP growth of 2% to 9% in the short term and significant GDP growth in the long term.</p><p>Biden Tax Increase: How?</p><p><b>1. Biden's tax increase is basically certain.</b></p><p>Three major reasons: 1) Tax increase is one of Biden's campaign slogans, and there is a high probability that it will be fulfilled. 2) It is clearly stated on the Biden campaign website that the 1.3 trillion infrastructure investment will all be raised by ensuring that the super-rich and corporations pay their fair (tax) share. 3) Treasury Secretary Yellen has said that part of the spending on the next bill (Biden's reconstruction plan) will be raised by tax increases.</p><p><b>Second, there are precedents for tax increases.</b></p><p>Since the 1950s, the income tax rate in the United States has been on a downward trend as a whole, with more tax cuts and less tax increases. There were three major tax increases. One was the Vietnam War surtax levied from 1968 to 1970 to cope with Vietnam War expenditures. Second, in 1990, George H.W. Bush raised taxes in response to the deficit growth. Third, Clinton raised taxes in 1993, which was also the largest and largest tax increase in the United States since 1950, and its purpose was also to reduce the fiscal deficit.</p><p><b>Third, the tax burden of the rich increases, and the burden of the middle and lower classes reduces; The corporate tax burden has increased, but the manufacturing industry is encouraged to return.</b></p><p>The target of Biden's tax increase is very clear, that is, wealthy groups and enterprises, and the tax incentives and credits for the middle and lower classes of society have actually increased. On the one hand, raise the payroll tax, income tax, capital gains tax and inheritance tax of wealthy groups; on the other hand, raise the corporate income tax rate again and adjust some other corporate taxes.</p><p><b>4. What impact will Biden's tax increase have on the US economy?</b></p><p>As far as economic growth is concerned, both the Tax Foundation and the Tax Policy Center estimate that tax increases will have a negative impact on economic growth in the next decade, which will reduce GDP by 1.62% to 3.4% in the next decade. In terms of tax revenue, the Tax Foundation believes tax increases could raise about 2.8 trillion in tax revenue over the next decade, while the Tax Policy Center estimates that tax increases will reduce federal revenue by $161 billion over the next decade (about 8% of total 10-year revenue). In addition, the Tax Foundation predicts that the tax increase will reduce the wage level, lose jobs, narrow the income gap, but reduce the overall after-tax income of residents.</p><p><b>Two key points in time: When will a formal redevelopment plan likely be rolled out?</b></p><p><b>The first key time point: April-May this year.</b></p><p>When Biden proposed the U.S. relief plan on January 14 this year, he made it clear: When I attend the joint session of Congress for the first time next month, I will propose my 'Recovery Plan for a Better Future'. Biden's reconstruction plan should have been formally proposed in February, but the epidemic is the top priority. On February 11, House Speaker Pelosi said that we will not do anything until we pass the COVID-19 pandemic relief bill.</p><p>When will the joint session of Congress be held? That's the key. On March 24th, White House spokesman Psaki said that there is no determined time yet. Historically, the president has attended and delivered a speech to a joint session of Congress no more than February at the latest. It is now expected overseas that Biden will officially attend a joint session of Congress in April, when he will introduce the reconstruction plan to lawmakers. According to Goldman Sachs, the White House may submit a detailed budget plan to Congress in May. According to the statement of the top Democratic Party, it is hoped that the infrastructure plan will pass the committees under the Senate and the House of Representatives in May. Therefore, we expect that the total scale of the reconstruction plan and the specific project details will most likely be announced in April-May.</p><p><b>The second critical time point: October.</b></p><p>First, after October, the Democratic Party can start the budget reconciliation process again. Second, the positive statement of the top Democratic Party indicates that it will push the reconstruction plan into Congress for voting as soon as possible or push the reconstruction plan to go through the budget reconciliation process at the beginning of the new fiscal year.</p><p>Risk warning: There are differences within the Democratic Party on the reconstruction plan.</p><p><b>Report Table of Contents</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a2d175dd5fcc77e4928e9a8001033b8\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Report text</p><p>After the implementation of the 1.9 trillion U.S. relief plan, the discussion about the Build Back Better Recovery Plan (because most of its measures are related to infrastructure, relevant reports and reports at home and abroad also call it the Biden infrastructure plan) heated up rapidly. According to a Bloomberg report on March 22, the recent reconstruction plan will be submitted to Biden, and the plan also includes a tax increase plan. White House Press Secretary Psaki also said on the 22nd that time is running out, so he will discuss with his team what options, scale and scope are available this week. According to Biden's statement when proposing the relief plan, he will introduce his reconstruction plan to members of Congress when he attends the joint session of Congress for the first time and delivers a speech to the joint session of Congress, so the reconstruction plan may be officially unveiled in April.</p><p>Since Biden's reconstruction plan has not yet been announced, this report uses the infrastructure plan and tax increase plan proposed by Biden during the election campaign as a blue book for analysis.</p><p>1. Biden infrastructure: how to build it?</p><p>Regarding Biden's infrastructure, we can mainly clarify four issues. First, is it necessary for the United States to develop infrastructure at present? Second, is there any historical experience of the U.S. government leading large-scale infrastructure investment? If so, from a historical comparison, what is the scale of Biden's infrastructure investment? Third, how to build the specific areas and measures of the infrastructure plan? Fourth, what is the impact of the infrastructure plan on the US economy?</p><p>(1) Is it necessary for the United States to develop infrastructure at present?</p><p>The current infrastructure situation in the United States is worrying, and it is very necessary to make large-scale investment. Most infrastructure systems in the United States were built in the 1960s, and many facilities have reached their maximum useful life and are close to being scrapped.</p><p>First, the infrastructure situation is worrying, and the comprehensive evaluation grade is low. The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) rated U.S. infrastructure with a D + (grade A-F) in 2017, and the rating was raised to C-in 2021. Although the rating has improved, it also shows that the infrastructure in the United States is still mostly below standard, showing serious deterioration. From a global comparison, the rating of the infrastructure sector in the United States has also been declining in the past two decades. According to the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report, the United States ranked 13th in the world in the field of infrastructure in 2019, compared with 5th in 2002, a drop of 8 places in 17 years.</p><p>2. There is currently a large-scale infrastructure investment gap in the United States. If it is not filled, it will have a huge negative impact on economic and social development. There are two sources of assessment: 1) The 2021 report of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) believes that the total gap in infrastructure investment in the United States has reached 2.59 trillion US dollars in the next ten years. If it is not made up, the United States will lose 10 trillion US dollars by 2039. GDP, a loss of 2.4 trillion exports. 2) McKinsey's 2016 study believes that from 2017 to 2030, $150 billion in infrastructure investment will be needed every year to keep up with the U.S. economy's demand for infrastructure.</p><p>3. U.S. infrastructure spending is far lower than that of major economies in the world, and it mainly relies on state and local governments. European countries spend the equivalent of 5% of GDP on building and maintaining infrastructure, and China's infrastructure expenditure averages about 8% of its GDP, while the United States only spends 2.4% [1]. In addition, unlike most other industrialized countries, the United States mainly relies on local and state government expenditures to meet its infrastructure needs. Most European countries or regions provide funds for most infrastructure construction at the national level, but only 25% of public infrastructure funds in the United States in 2017 came from the federal government. This figure is far lower than the peak of 38% in 1977, indicating that the federal government has less and less responsibility for spending on public infrastructure. As the stock of infrastructure in the United States continues to increase, state and local governments have to bear more operating and maintenance costs, which has also caused new investment in infrastructure to decline since the early 2000s.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92d1fe0e962d44eff5f6d6a13da64df6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80cf9e50d231575711b16ef73e71bb98\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(2) Has the federal government made major investments in infrastructure in history?</p><p>Since the last century, the United States has experienced four large-scale infrastructure investments led by the federal government. From a historical comparison, Biden's infrastructure plan is the second largest federal infrastructure investment in the United States since the last century. Since the last century, the U.S. federal government has led four rounds of large-scale infrastructure investment. The largest investment is Roosevelt's New Deal, with public works-related expenditures of $18 billion, accounting for 31% of GDP in 1933; The smallest investment is Obama's ARRA Act, in which infrastructure expenditure is US $120 billion, accounting for 0.8% of GDP in 2009. Eisenhower's cost of building interstate highways was $25 billion, accounting for about 5.6% of GDP in 1956, and Clinton's total investment in information superhighway plan was 400 billion, accounting for 5.8% of GDP in 1993. Infrastructure spending announced on Biden's campaign website is approximately US $1.3 trillion, accounting for approximately 6.1% of GDP in 2019, making it the second largest investment since the last century.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/482f1bb788c01537a9201e79b2e0f4b1\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>1. Roosevelt's New Deal</p><p>After the Great Depression, in order to stimulate employment recovery, Roosevelt signed the National Industrial Recovery Act in 1933. He believed that extensive public works programs could directly bring employment opportunities. Through the establishment of Federal Economic Relief Agency, Public Works Administration (PWA), Public Utilities Promotion Agency (WPA) and other agencies, it has brought more than 10 million jobs to the United States. By the eve of World War II, the federal government's engineering expenses and direct relief expenses amounted to $18 billion, accounting for 31% of the U.S. GDP in 1933 and 14% of the U.S. GDP in 1941. If we look at expenditure in a broad sense, the total federal expenditure of Roosevelt's New Deal was $41.7 billion, accounting for 73% of the U.S. GDP in 1933 and 32% of the U.S. GDP in 1941.</p><p>Large-scale public works expenditure has also achieved remarkable results: in terms of public works, WPA's small projects include 78,000 bridges and viaducts, and 572,000 miles of rural roads; In the first six years of its establishment, PWA completed about 1.14 street and highway projects, totaling 37,000 miles [2]. By the eve of World War II, the United States had built nearly 1,000 airports, more than 12,000 sports fields, and more than 800 school buildings and hospitals. In terms of employment, WPA alone provided jobs for about eight million people in 1935-1943.</p><p>2. Eisenhower: Interstate Highway</p><p>In the 1950s, Eisenhower advocated the construction of an interstate highway system in the United States. In 1956, he signed the Federal Aid Highway Act, obtaining a $25 billion authorization to build 41,000 miles of interstate highways over a decade, which would be paid by tax revenue such as the gas tax deposited into the Federal Highway Trust Fund, with the federal government providing about 90% of the total expenditure and the remaining 10% being paid by the states. The cost of building interstate highways was about 5.6% of U.S. GDP in 1956.</p><p>3. Clinton: Information Superhighway Plan</p><p>In 1992, US presidential candidate Clinton proposed to build an information superhighway during the election campaign. After Clinton took office in 1993, the information superhighway plan was officially implemented. The planned investment is US $400 billion over 20 years, and telecommunications optical cables will be gradually laid to all household users. In 1994, the U.S. government put forward the initiative of building a global information infrastructure, aiming at connecting the global information network through satellite communications and telecommunications optical cables to form a competitive mechanism for information sharing [3]. The total investment in the information superhighway plan accounted for 5.8% of the GDP of the United States in 1993.</p><p>4. Obama: ARRA fiscal stimulus bill</p><p>After the financial crisis, Obama signed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), a fiscal stimulus bill, in February 2009, with an initial total scale of $787 billion. In 2015, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the total expenditure would be about $840 billion, of which about 120 billion was used for infrastructure projects, including 48 billion for transportation and public transportation projects, 31 billion for modernization of federal buildings, 31 billion for modernization of school facilities and scientific facilities, 6 billion for water conservancy projects and 5 billion for housing climate renovation projects. The infrastructure expenditure of the ARRA Act accounted for only 0.8% of GDP in 2009.</p><p>(3) Specific measures for Biden's infrastructure plan?</p><p>1. Three key points of infrastructure plan</p><p>The plan to build modern, sustainable infrastructure and a fair and clean energy future proposed on Biden's campaign website spans 10 years and has a total scale of US $2 trillion, accounting for approximately 9.3% of GDP in 2019; If we only look at infrastructure expenditure, it is about US $1.3 trillion, accounting for about 6.1% of GDP in 2019. The plan announced on the campaign website has two characteristics:</p><p>First, the content is very extensive. The plan is not limited to traditional infrastructure and clean energy investment, but also includes new infrastructure such as smart cities and broadband, automobile industry development, building renovation and affordable housing construction, sustainable agriculture, manufacturing revitalization and small and medium-sized enterprise development, community equality and development and other fields.</p><p>Second, promoting employment and rebuilding the middle class are the highlights. It can be said that increasing employment and rebuilding the middle class is a major purpose of Biden's infrastructure development. In Biden's vision, the plan can significantly create new jobs. For example, investment in infrastructure will create millions of jobs, investment in the automobile industry will create 1 million jobs, investment in the power sector will create millions of jobs, investment in construction and housing will create 1 million high-paying jobs, agricultural protection will create 250,000 jobs, etc.</p><p>Third, keep manufacturing in the United States. Preventing the relocation of manufacturing industries is inherently consistent with the need to create jobs. This statement has been mentioned many times in the plan, such as: ensuring that automobile manufacturers are encouraged to build or restructure complete vehicle or parts factories in China; Invest in battery technology but ensure that battery production takes place domestically, etc.</p><p>In addition, it is worth noting that the specific investment amount in various fields in the infrastructure plan is still unclear, and only a few projects have proposed clear investment amounts. Because the brief introduction of the plan is very rough and there is no very detailed expenditure plan, the investment amount is only proposed in a few projects, such as: increasing federal procurement by $400 billion during the first term (the specific procurement plan is not specified); $100 billion to improve public school buildings; In his first year in office, he invested $50 billion in repairing highways, highways and bridges; Invest $20 billion in rural broadband infrastructure and provide $60 billion in funding to expand broadband access in rural areas; Invest an additional $10 billion over 10 years to support transportation projects in low-income areas; The $40 billion, 10-year transformation project fund is used to fund major infrastructure projects and so on. If the investment quota is explicitly mentioned in the introduction of the plan, the total amount is only over 800 billion dollars.</p><p>2. Not only infrastructure, but the plan covers eight major areas</p><p>Overall, Biden's infrastructure plan is not limited to the field of infrastructure, but covers a very wide range of areas, covering modern infrastructure, automobile industry development, clean power investment, building renovation and housing construction, clean energy investment, sustainable agriculture, and community equality There are eight major areas of development and manufacturing revitalization (the following is an introduction, see the appendix for details).</p><p>First, build modern infrastructure facilities.</p><p>1) Road repair and construction. In the first year of his administration, he invested $50 billion in repairing highways, roads and bridges, and investing in transportation in remote areas. 2) The second railway revolution. Invest heavily in high-speed rail, improve the passenger and freight railway system, promote the electrification of the railway system, and reduce diesel emissions. 3) Vigorously develop public transportation. By 2030, build a high-quality public transport system in cities with a population of more than 100,000. Invest an additional $10 billion over 10 years to support transportation projects in low-income areas. 4) Improve the airport. Double funding for airport improvement programs, competitive grants for major airport renovation projects, full implementation of next-generation aviation technology systems, etc. 5) Invest heavily in freight infrastructure, including inland waterways, freight corridors, freight railways, transit facilities and ports. Increase the BUILD and INFRA transportation infrastructure grant project grants from 1.8 billion to 3.5 billion per year; Add 2.5 billion annual funding for the Army Corps of Engineers to promote lock modernization on inland waterways; Support port infrastructure. 6) Water conservancy infrastructure construction. Replace aging pipes, double federal investment in clean drinking water and water infrastructure, monitor lead and other pollutants in water systems, and hold polluting enterprises accountable. Invest in water technology research and development and call on private sector innovation. 7) New infrastructure projects: smart city construction. Help 5 cities pilot new planning strategies and smart city technologies with $1 billion a year. Invest in broadband networks. Invest $20 billion to build rural broadband infrastructure, 60 billion to expand broadband access in rural areas, increase the number of broadband providers participating, etc. 8) Establish a transformation project fund. Set up a $40 billion, 10-year transformation project fund to provide assistance for huge and complex infrastructure projects.</p><p>Second, make the U.S. auto industry lead the world this century and accelerate the transition to low-carbon and carbon-free vehicles.</p><p>1) Demand side: Restore full tax credits for electric vehicles, use federal procurement to increase demand for clean vehicles, and accelerate the upgrade of 3 million government system vehicles. Set a goal of all new U.S.-made buses being zero-emissions by 2030, converting 500,000 school buses nationwide into zero-emission vehicles. 2) Encourage automobile manufacturers to build or restructure complete vehicle or parts factories in China. 3) Invest $5 billion in battery and energy storage technology over five years, while ensuring battery production takes place domestically. 4) Establish a national charging system of 500,000 public charging outlets, with an additional $1 billion in annual funding to ensure that charging stations are installed by certified technicians. 5) Convene the U.S. Department of Energy and Transportation to coordinate special demonstration projects to provide grants to municipalities and counties willing to pilot new charging infrastructure. 6) Establish fuel economy standards and reduce air pollution.</p><p>Third, clean power investment: achieve carbon-free power generation by 2035.</p><p>1) Develop clean electricity and achieve carbon-free power generation by 2035. 2) Vigorously develop the power grid, promote market reform, and expand the regional power market. 3) Establish Energy Efficiency and Clean Electricity Standards (EECES) for utilities and grid operators; 4) Upgrade transmission lines to support larger regional electricity markets and promote large-scale energy storage demonstration projects. 5) Research investments and tax incentives for technologies that capture carbon, permanently sequestrate and utilize captured carbon will be doubled.</p><p>Fourth, building renovation to improve building energy efficiency.</p><p>1) Promote school modernization. Invest $100 billion to improve public school buildings and upgrade childcare and early learning facilities across the country. 2) Building energy-saving renovation. Upgrade 4 million commercial buildings and carry out energy-saving renovations for 2 million households within 4 years. Promote the electrification of the construction industry and increase investment in key technologies such as energy-saving renovation projects of low-income houses and electric heat pumps; Building net-zero carbon federal buildings, etc. 3) Halve the carbon footprint of U.S. building stock by 2035. 4) Promote the construction of 1.5 million public housing units and inject more funds into low-income communities to promote the construction of affordable housing and the development of small businesses.</p><p>Fifth, make historic investments in clean energy innovation.</p><p>1) Increase federal procurement by $400 billion during the first term, with one focus on the purchase of key clean energy inputs such as batteries and electric vehicles. 2) Focus on strategic research areas such as clean energy, clean transportation, clean industrial processes and clean materials in the next 4 years. 3) Strengthen and build key clean energy supply chains in the United States, solve issues such as dependence on rare earth minerals, and accelerate innovation in supply chain resilience. 4) Invest heavily in national laboratories, high-performance computing capability facilities, and other critical infrastructure.</p><p>Sixth, invest in sustainable agriculture and environmental conservation.</p><p>1) Call on and mobilize a new generation of Americans to devote themselves to protecting the environment and tackling climate change through civil climate organizations. 2) Make upfront investments to clean up environmental damage and impacts caused by previous resource extraction. 3) Maintaining farms and ranches in America. Provide low-cost funding for farmers to transition to new equipment and methods, fund research and development of precision agriculture and new crops, and establish voluntary carbon farming markets; Pursue pro-worker and pro-family farmer trade policies; Strengthening food supply security and resilience; Ensure fair competition among small and medium-sized farms, etc.</p><p>Seventh, community equality and development.</p><p>1) $5 billion annually to expand the new market tax credit and make the program permanent; 2) Double funding for the Community Development Financial Institutions Fund to support financial institutions in low-income areas. 3) Establish a $10 billion Urban Revitalization Fund to carry out creative revitalization projects in struggling cities. 4) Funding anchor institutions in poor areas (referring to hospitals, colleges and universities, and government administrative institutions, etc.). 5) Fully implement the 10-20-30 program (allocating 10% of all federal programs to counties where 20% or more of the population has lived below the poverty line in the past 30 years).</p><p>Eighth, revitalize the manufacturing industry and small and medium-sized enterprises across the country.</p><p>1) Revitalize the manufacturing industry. Quadruple funding for the Manufacturing Expansion Partnership program to provide technical support for small manufacturers in global competition; Developing low-carbon manufacturing in every state; Use tax credits and subsidies to help businesses upgrade equipment and processes, invest in expanded or new factories, and deploy low-carbon technologies; Providing funding for more competitive or low-carbon manufacturing, etc. 2) Promote the development of small and medium-sized enterprises. Extend the National Small Business Credit Initiative program until 2025, and increase federal funding to $3 billion; Provide $5 billion to states to develop policies that encourage small business entrepreneurship, such as supporting technology transfer from public universities to the private sector.</p><p>(4) What is the impact of Biden's infrastructure construction on the US economy?</p><p>How to assess the impact of infrastructure expenditure on the economy? We can learn from the past evaluation results of infrastructure effects by American academic circles and think tanks: 1) A study by the University of Maryland in 2014 showed that every dollar spent on public transportation infrastructure investment will increase GDP growth by about $3. During the economic recession The impact is greater. 2) According to a 2014 University of Chicago report, an $83 billion infrastructure investment plan-equivalent to roughly 0.6% of GDP-would create 1.7 million jobs in the first three years. 3) According to estimates by global consulting firm McKinsey, every 1 percentage point of GDP increase in U.S. infrastructure spending will add 1.5 million jobs to the economy. 4) The Economic Policy Institute estimates that the return on infrastructure investment is high. A review of dozens of infrastructure studies shows that every $100 spent … will increase private sector output by $13 (median) and $17 (average), respectively, in the long run. 5) According to the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) 's assessment of Obama's ARRA bill, the output multiplier of infrastructure category is between 0.4-2.2.</p><p>We can learn from the evaluation results of infrastructure effects by American academic circles and think tanks to roughly estimate the overall impact of Biden's infrastructure plan on the U.S. economy and employment.</p><p>1) Impact on GDP: In Biden's infrastructure plan, the determined infrastructure expenditure is approximately US $1.3 trillion, the investment cycle is 10 years, and the average annual expenditure is approximately US $130 billion, accounting for approximately 0.6% of GDP in 2019. Based on the output multiplier of 0.4-3 (combined with the output multiplier estimated by the University of Maryland and CBO), in the next ten years, the annual additional output contribution to GDP will be approximately US $52 billion to US $390 billion, which is approximately 0.2% to 1.8% of nominal GDP in 2019.</p><p>2) Impact on employment: According to the employment impact estimate of the University of Chicago, infrastructure spending of 1.3 trillion yuan will create more than 2 million jobs per year in the next decade. According to McKinsey's assessment, it is estimated that about 10 million jobs will be created in the next decade. The employment impact of the Biden team in the plan brief is estimated to drive more than 10 million jobs. Taken together, Biden's reconstruction plan may create more than 10 million jobs in the United States in the next ten years.</p><p>3) Bank of America estimated in a report that Biden's $2 trillion infrastructure plan could lead to GDP growth of 2% to 9% in the short term and significant GDP growth in the long term, and that every 1% increase in U.S. GDP growth will lead to an increase of about 3% to 4% in S&P 500 company earnings [4].</p><p>2. Biden's tax increase: how?</p><p>Similarly, we understand Biden's tax increase from four questions. First, is Biden sure to raise taxes? What is the purpose of the tax increase? Second, is there a precedent for tax increases in American history? Third, how does Biden plan to raise taxes? Fourth, what impact will tax increases have on the US economy?</p><p>(1) Is Biden sure to raise taxes? What is the purpose?</p><p>Is Biden going to raise taxes? The tax increase should be yes. First, Biden clearly proposed a tax increase plan during the campaign. This is one of his campaign slogans and will most likely be fulfilled. Second, it is written on Biden's campaign website that as much as $1.3 trillion in investment in infrastructure will all be funded by ensuring that the super-rich and corporations pay their fair (tax) share. Third, Treasury Secretary Yellen has said that part of the spending on the next bill (referring to Biden's Reconstruction Plan bill) will be raised by tax increases.</p><p>Biden's tax increase has three purposes: first, to raise funds for the reconstruction plan, second, to fulfill campaign promises, third, to promote tax fairness through tax adjustments, and to adjust the gap between the rich and the poor through secondary distribution. From the adjustment of the tax system, it can be clearly seen that the tax burden pressure of the rich, high-income class and enterprises has increased, while the tax credit of low-and middle-income people has obviously expanded.</p><p>(2) Is there a precedent for tax increase?</p><p>Before 1950, the highest marginal tax rates of personal income tax and corporate income tax in the United States showed a gradual upward trend. During this period, the main reason for tax increase was to raise funds for war. During World War I and World War II, the highest marginal tax rates of personal income tax and corporate income tax rose sharply. Since the 1950s, the highest marginal tax rates of personal income tax and corporate income tax in the United States have shown a gradual downward trend as a whole, with many periods of tax reduction and few periods of tax increase.</p><p>Since 1950, there have been five major tax cuts: Kennedy's tax cut in 1963, Carter's tax cut in 1979, Reagan's tax cut in 1980s, George W. Bush's tax cut in 2001, and Trump's tax cut in 2017.</p><p>The most obvious tax increases since 1950 have been three times.</p><p>The first time was in the late 1960s, and the main reason for the tax increase was war factors. From 1968 to 1970, in order to cope with the expenditure of the Vietnam War, the United States imposed a Vietnam War surtax, which was abolished after 1970.</p><p>The second time was in 1990, in order to cope with the sharp increase in social public expenditure such as defense and medical care, George H.W. Bush passed the Monitoring Budget Mediation Act of 1990 in 1990, which raised the highest marginal tax rate of personal income tax from 28% to 31%.</p><p>The third time was Clinton's tax increase in 1993, and this time it was also the largest and largest tax increase in the United States since 1950. In order to reduce the fiscal deficit, Clinton proposed a tax increase plan in 1993, increasing the maximum marginal tax rate of personal income tax from 31% to 39.6% and the maximum marginal tax rate of corporate income tax from 34% to 35%. It is worth noting that the increase in the highest marginal tax rate of personal income tax from 35% to 39.6% in 2012 was not caused by the tax increase, but because George W. Bush's tax reduction period had expired, and the tax rate automatically returned to the level before the tax reduction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/059fc482c64a72c92006019e12fd347f\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a271519721bfe2d2e70b5c022a30421\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(3) How does Biden plan to increase taxes?</p><p>Biden's tax increase is mainly in two aspects:<b>First, the payroll tax, income tax, capital gains tax and inheritance tax of high-income groups; second, the corporate income tax rate is re-raised and some corporate taxes are adjusted.</b>It can be seen from the specific details of the following clauses that Biden's tax increase targets are very clear, that is, wealthy groups and enterprises, and the tax incentives and credits for the middle and lower classes of society have actually increased.</p><p>1. Adjustment of individual tax system: the tax burden of the rich increases, while the burden of the middle and lower classes reduces</p><p>1) A 12.4% Social Security payroll tax is imposed on people earning more than $400,000 a year, which is equally divided between employers and employees. Under the advance tax law, individuals earning more than 137,700 per year are not required to pay Social Security payroll taxes.</p><p>2) Increase the maximum individual income tax rate for taxable income exceeding $400,000 to 39.6% from 37% as stipulated by current law; For groups with an annual income of more than $400,000, even if there are tax incentives for itemized deductions, their personal income tax rate shall not be less than 28%; Restore the Pease limit on deductions for items with taxable income exceeding $400,000; Phase out the qualifying business income deduction for groups with taxable income over $400,000.</p><p>3) Taxes long-term capital gains and qualified Dividend income above $1 million at the ordinary income tax rate of 39.6%, eliminating the progressiveness of capital gains tax.</p><p>4) Tax credits: Expand the earned income tax credit for childless employees over 65 to provide renewable energy-related tax credits for individuals; Expand the Child and Dependent Tax Credit (CDCTC) from a maximum of $3,000 to $8,000 ($16,000 for multiple dependents) and increase the maximum reimbursement rate from 35% to 50%. In 2021, increase the Child Tax Credit (CTC) for children 17 and under from a maximum of $2,000 to $3,000, while providing an additional $600 credit for children under 6 that the CTC will refund in full. It is worth mentioning that measures regarding CTC have been implemented in the 1.9 trillion relief package; Rebuild the first-time homebuyer tax credit policy with a $15,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers.</p><p>5) Restore the rates and allowances for estate and gift taxes to 2009 levels. After Trump's tax reform in 2017, the inheritance and gift tax exemption for 2018-2025 was increased from 5 million to 10 million per person, and the tax rate was still set at 40%. If it returns to 2009 levels, the tax allowance will be reduced from the current 10 million to 3.5 million, and the tax rate will be increased from 40% to 45%.</p><p>6) Other adjustment items that lack clear information: replacing traditional deductions by providing refundable tax credits to balance the tax benefits of traditional retirement accounts (such as 401 (k) s and IRAs); Elimination of certain provisions of real estate taxes; Expanding the Affordable Care Act's premium tax credit; Create refundable tenant tax credits and provide credits of up to $5 billion per year, designed to keep rent and utility bills below 30% of a tenant's monthly income; Increase the amount of housing tax credit for low-income people.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee544b934d79e80772ee93dede7fba86\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"583\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c55ac12a24c96f38ba548d45117f82cb\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2. Corporate tax system adjustment: the tax burden increases, but the manufacturing industry is encouraged to return</p><p>1) Increase the corporate income tax rate from 21% to 28%.</p><p>2) Impose a minimum tax on companies with book profits exceeding $100 million. The minimum tax is an alternative tax-businesses will pay the higher of regular corporate income tax or the 15% minimum tax, still allowing net operating loss (NOL) and foreign tax credits.</p><p>3) Double the Global Intangible Low Tax Income tax rate for overseas subsidiaries of U.S. companies from 10.5% to 21%. A sub-country assessment of GILTI for overseas subsidiaries is proposed, removing the provision that treats GILTI less than 10% of the qualified business asset investment (QBAI) as a return exemption.</p><p>Before the tax reform in 2017, the United States generally taxed the global income of its companies and residents, and American companies could apply to postpone taxation of the active business income of overseas subsidiaries until the income was repatriated to the United States as Dividend. After the tax reform, the United States exempted the gains from the active business of overseas subsidiaries of American companies from being taxed even if these gains were repatriated (but still taxed the passive investment income of foreign subsidiaries). The U.S. Congress, concerned that the full exemption of overseas income of multinational companies could exacerbate its practice of shifting profits to overseas low-tax jurisdictions, has set a minimum tax rate of 10.5% on low-tax income from intangible assets worldwide to discourage profit shifting. GILTI refers to the revenue generated by intangible assets such as patents, trademarks, and copyrights. Intangible assets are highly moveable, and this tax rate seeks to discourage U.S. companies from moving intangible assets overseas.</p><p>4) Tax credits: Establish a manufacturing tax credit; Expand and make permanent tax credits in new markets; Tax credits for small businesses that adopt workplace retirement savings plans; Expand tax credits related to renewable energy, including those for carbon capture, use and storage and those for residential energy efficiency, and reinstate the Energy Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and EV tax credit, ending tax subsidies for fossil fuels.</p><p>5) Other adjustment items that lack clear information: Impose a 10% surtax on companies that move manufacturing and service jobs abroad in order to sell products or provide services to the U.S. market. Provides a preferred 10% Made in America tax credit for activities that resume production, revitalize facilities that have closed or are about to close, restructure facilities to promote manufacturing employment or expand manufacturing wages.</p><p>(4) The impact of Biden's tax increase on the U.S. economy</p><p>The impact of tax increases on the economy is relatively complex. We mainly draw on the assessment of overseas think tanks to roughly understand the impact of Biden's tax increases on the U.S. economy.<b>As far as economic growth is concerned, both the Tax Foundation and the Tax Policy Center estimate that tax increases will have a negative impact on economic growth in the next decade, which will reduce GDP by 1.62% to 3.4% in the next decade. In terms of tax revenue, the Tax Foundation believes tax increases could raise about 2.8 trillion in tax revenue over the next decade, while the Tax Policy Center estimates that tax increases will reduce federal revenue by $161 billion over the next decade (about 8% of total revenue over those 10 years).</b>In addition, the Tax Foundation predicts that the tax increase will reduce the wage level, lose jobs, narrow the income gap, but reduce the overall after-tax income of residents.</p><p>1. Estimates from the Tax Foundation</p><p>1) Impact on fiscal revenue: Biden's tax plan will raise approximately $2.8 trillion over the next 10 years. 2) Economic impact: In the next decade, it will reduce GDP by a total of 1.62%, GNP by a total of 1.83%, capital stock by 3.75%, long-term average wages by 1.15%, and 542,000 jobs will be lost. 3) The impact of income distribution: Biden's tax plan will reduce the after-tax income of the richest 1% of taxpayers by about 7.7% by 2030, and the average after-tax income of all taxpayers will drop by 1.9%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92310243b616c89248067f2f1a18ffc3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Tax Policy Center (TaxPolicy Center)</p><p>1) Economic impact: The U.S. GDP will decrease by a total of 3.4% in the next ten years. The impact on GDP will turn positive in 2040. In the years after 2040, the positive impact will gradually increase. 2) Revenue impact: It will reduce U.S. federal revenue by $161 billion from 2021 to 2030 (approximately 8% of total revenue for those 10 years) and by $90 billion from 2031 to 2040. By 2040, the impact of the tax plan on federal revenue will turn positive, and its positive effect will gradually increase in the subsequent years of 2040.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b75c8d26db2d05446f6e6db4dec6a9a\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0a76e285bdc0d17be49c9ec0fbade5\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>3. Key time points: When may the formal reconstruction plan be launched?</p><p>At present, the Biden team has not announced the formal plan and investment details. To track Biden's reconstruction plan in the future, there are two key time points worthy of attention:</p><p><b>The first key time point: April-May this year.</b></p><p>When Biden first proposed the U.S. relief plan on January 14 this year, he made it clear: Next month, when I attend my first joint session of Congress, I will propose my 'Recovery Plan for a Better Future' [5]. Under normal circumstances, Biden's reconstruction plan should have been formally proposed in February, but the epidemic is the top priority. On February 11, House Speaker Pelosi said that we will not do anything until we pass the COVID-19 pandemic relief bill.</p><p>When will the joint session of Congress be held? That's the key. On March 24, White House spokesperson Psaki said that there is no time set yet … We are certainly still interested in committing to a joint meeting. We will be in touch with them, but I don't know exactly when. Historically, presidents have attended and delivered speeches to joint sessions of Congress no later than February. It is now expected overseas that Biden will officially attend the joint session of Congress [6] in April, when he will introduce the reconstruction plan to lawmakers. According to Goldman Sachs, the White House may submit a detailed budget plan to Congress in May. According to the statement of the top Democratic Party, it is hoped that the infrastructure plan will pass the committees under the Senate and the House of Representatives in May. Therefore, we expect that the total scale of the reconstruction plan and the specific project details will most likely be announced in April-May.</p><p><b>The second critical time point: October.</b></p><p>The launch and implementation of Biden's reconstruction plan requires the approval of the U.S. Congress. At present, the Democratic Party controls the House of Representatives and can easily pass bills in the House of Representatives. But the Democratic Party has only a slight advantage in the Senate, with only one more vote than the Republican Party, and can't bypass the Senate filibuster (60 votes required). There are only two ways for Biden's reconstruction plan to pass the Senate. First, on the premise of ensuring the consent of all Democratic senators, win the support of at least 10 Republican senators. The second is to start the budget reconciliation process again, which is consistent with the congressional process of the 1.9 trillion U.S. relief plan, and only 51 votes are needed to pass the Senate.</p><p>Judging from the current attitude of the top Republican Senate, the feasibility of the first method is very low. Senate Republican leader McConnell said on Monday: We have heard that the so-called infrastructure bill may be proposed in the next few months. In fact, it may be a Trojan horse hiding substantial tax increases and other left-wing policies that harm jobs.</p><p>If Biden's reconstruction plan is to be implemented, the most likely thing is to start the budget reconciliation process. The U.S. fiscal year is from October to September of the following year, and the budget reconciliation process can generally only be used once a fiscal year (originally, the three areas of revenue, expenditure and deficit have an opportunity to start the budget reconciliation process every fiscal year, but the bill generally involves more than one area, basically all three areas will be covered. According to historical experience, the budget reconciliation process is also at most once a fiscal year). This year's 1.9 trillion U.S. relief plan has already used the quota of fiscal year 2021. October is the second critical point in time. First, by October, the Democratic Party can activate the budget reconciliation process again. Second, judging from the statements of Democratic lawmakers, they hope to quickly pass the reconstruction plan bill. For example, House Speaker Pelosi hopes that Congress will take quick action to formulate a transformative infrastructure plan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b55345e7966f98cb44655e2ee1d5f0ea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Appendix IV: Detailed Contents of Biden's Reconstruction Plan</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aeb3bd2d6946393ea99fee60d03300f\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/118a22c23672c23b7ffdaff2e00b0f9b\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fd4d7b6dfaec3e2161aa5abc88d706f\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee04e29c93d385e9e3f0123b9a2a6941\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a302cf76ac1ec43059d2ec6818aa587\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"lsy1584436024241","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Detailed explanation of Biden's reconstruction plan: how to build it? 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How much impact does it have on the stock market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\"> 一瑜中的</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-26 21:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Zhang Yu Fu Chunsheng</p><p><b>Main views</b></p><p>After the $1.9 trillion relief was implemented, discussions about Biden's infrastructure plan heated up rapidly. Since the plan has not yet been officially announced, this report is based on the infrastructure plan and tax increase plan proposed by Biden during the election campaign, and understands Biden's infrastructure and tax increase plan from four perspectives (necessity, historical comparison, specific measures, and impact). Increase taxes in order to get a general understanding of the measures and impacts of future formal reconstruction plans.</p><p>Biden Infrastructure: How to Build it?</p><p><b>1. Is it necessary for the United States to develop infrastructure at present?</b></p><p>Very necessary. First of all, the infrastructure situation is worrying. According to the latest ASCE assessment, the infrastructure in the United States is still mostly below standard, showing serious deterioration. According to the Global Competitiveness Report, the United States ranked 13th in the world in the field of infrastructure in 2019 and 5th in 2002. Second, there is a large-scale investment gap. The total infrastructure investment gap in the next ten years has reached 2.59 trillion US dollars. Finally, the intensity of infrastructure expenditure is far lower than that of major economies. Europe's infrastructure expenditure is equivalent to 5% of GDP, China's infrastructure expenditure accounts for about 8% of GDP, and the United States' only 2.4%. The United States mainly relies on local and state governments for infrastructure investment, but local governments are gradually beyond their reach. As the stock of infrastructure continues to grow, state and local governments have to bear more operating and maintenance costs, and new investment has been declining since the early 2000s.</p><p><b>2. Is there any precedent for the federal government to lead infrastructure investment?</b></p><p>From a historical comparison, Biden infrastructure is the second largest federal infrastructure investment in the United States since the last century. Since the last century, the U.S. federal government has led four rounds of large-scale infrastructure investment. The largest investment is Roosevelt's New Deal, with public works expenditures of $18 billion, accounting for 31% of GDP in 1933; The smallest investment is Obama's ARRA Act, with infrastructure expenditures of US $120 billion, accounting for 0.8% of GDP in 2009. Eisenhower's cost of building interstate highways was $25 billion, accounting for 5.6% of GDP in 1956, and Clinton's information superhighway plan invested a total of 400 billion, accounting for 5.8% of GDP in 1993. The scale of Biden's infrastructure investment is approximately US $1.3 trillion, accounting for 6.1% of GDP in 2019, making it the second largest investment since the last century.</p><p><b>3. What are Biden's specific measures for infrastructure construction?</b></p><p>The plan proposed on Biden's campaign website is $2 trillion over 10 years, accounting for 9.3% of GDP in 2019; Among them, infrastructure investment was US $1.3 trillion, accounting for 6.1% of GDP in 2019. The plan has three key points: 1) The content is very extensive. It covers eight major areas: modern infrastructure, automobile industry development, clean power investment, building renovation and housing construction, clean energy investment, sustainable agriculture, equal community development and manufacturing revitalization. 2) Promoting employment and rebuilding the middle class are the highlights. 3) Keep manufacturing in the United States. Preventing manufacturing relocation is intrinsically consistent with the need to create jobs. It should be noted that the amount of investment in various fields in the plan is still unclear, and only a few projects have put forward clear investment amounts.</p><p><b>4. What impact will Biden's infrastructure have on the US economy?</b></p><p>1) Impact on GDP: In 10 years, the annual infrastructure expenditure is about 130 billion. Estimated based on the output multiplier of 0.4-3 (assessed by the University of Maryland and CBO), the annual additional output contribution to GDP is about 52 billion ~ 390 billion US dollars, which is about 0.2% to 1.8% of nominal GDP in 2019. 2) Impact on employment: Biden's reconstruction plan may create more than 10 million jobs in the United States in the next ten years. 3) Bank of America estimates that Biden's infrastructure plan may bring about GDP growth of 2% to 9% in the short term and significant GDP growth in the long term.</p><p>Biden Tax Increase: How?</p><p><b>1. Biden's tax increase is basically certain.</b></p><p>Three major reasons: 1) Tax increase is one of Biden's campaign slogans, and there is a high probability that it will be fulfilled. 2) It is clearly stated on the Biden campaign website that the 1.3 trillion infrastructure investment will all be raised by ensuring that the super-rich and corporations pay their fair (tax) share. 3) Treasury Secretary Yellen has said that part of the spending on the next bill (Biden's reconstruction plan) will be raised by tax increases.</p><p><b>Second, there are precedents for tax increases.</b></p><p>Since the 1950s, the income tax rate in the United States has been on a downward trend as a whole, with more tax cuts and less tax increases. There were three major tax increases. One was the Vietnam War surtax levied from 1968 to 1970 to cope with Vietnam War expenditures. Second, in 1990, George H.W. Bush raised taxes in response to the deficit growth. Third, Clinton raised taxes in 1993, which was also the largest and largest tax increase in the United States since 1950, and its purpose was also to reduce the fiscal deficit.</p><p><b>Third, the tax burden of the rich increases, and the burden of the middle and lower classes reduces; The corporate tax burden has increased, but the manufacturing industry is encouraged to return.</b></p><p>The target of Biden's tax increase is very clear, that is, wealthy groups and enterprises, and the tax incentives and credits for the middle and lower classes of society have actually increased. On the one hand, raise the payroll tax, income tax, capital gains tax and inheritance tax of wealthy groups; on the other hand, raise the corporate income tax rate again and adjust some other corporate taxes.</p><p><b>4. What impact will Biden's tax increase have on the US economy?</b></p><p>As far as economic growth is concerned, both the Tax Foundation and the Tax Policy Center estimate that tax increases will have a negative impact on economic growth in the next decade, which will reduce GDP by 1.62% to 3.4% in the next decade. In terms of tax revenue, the Tax Foundation believes tax increases could raise about 2.8 trillion in tax revenue over the next decade, while the Tax Policy Center estimates that tax increases will reduce federal revenue by $161 billion over the next decade (about 8% of total 10-year revenue). In addition, the Tax Foundation predicts that the tax increase will reduce the wage level, lose jobs, narrow the income gap, but reduce the overall after-tax income of residents.</p><p><b>Two key points in time: When will a formal redevelopment plan likely be rolled out?</b></p><p><b>The first key time point: April-May this year.</b></p><p>When Biden proposed the U.S. relief plan on January 14 this year, he made it clear: When I attend the joint session of Congress for the first time next month, I will propose my 'Recovery Plan for a Better Future'. Biden's reconstruction plan should have been formally proposed in February, but the epidemic is the top priority. On February 11, House Speaker Pelosi said that we will not do anything until we pass the COVID-19 pandemic relief bill.</p><p>When will the joint session of Congress be held? That's the key. On March 24th, White House spokesman Psaki said that there is no determined time yet. Historically, the president has attended and delivered a speech to a joint session of Congress no more than February at the latest. It is now expected overseas that Biden will officially attend a joint session of Congress in April, when he will introduce the reconstruction plan to lawmakers. According to Goldman Sachs, the White House may submit a detailed budget plan to Congress in May. According to the statement of the top Democratic Party, it is hoped that the infrastructure plan will pass the committees under the Senate and the House of Representatives in May. Therefore, we expect that the total scale of the reconstruction plan and the specific project details will most likely be announced in April-May.</p><p><b>The second critical time point: October.</b></p><p>First, after October, the Democratic Party can start the budget reconciliation process again. Second, the positive statement of the top Democratic Party indicates that it will push the reconstruction plan into Congress for voting as soon as possible or push the reconstruction plan to go through the budget reconciliation process at the beginning of the new fiscal year.</p><p>Risk warning: There are differences within the Democratic Party on the reconstruction plan.</p><p><b>Report Table of Contents</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a2d175dd5fcc77e4928e9a8001033b8\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Report text</p><p>After the implementation of the 1.9 trillion U.S. relief plan, the discussion about the Build Back Better Recovery Plan (because most of its measures are related to infrastructure, relevant reports and reports at home and abroad also call it the Biden infrastructure plan) heated up rapidly. According to a Bloomberg report on March 22, the recent reconstruction plan will be submitted to Biden, and the plan also includes a tax increase plan. White House Press Secretary Psaki also said on the 22nd that time is running out, so he will discuss with his team what options, scale and scope are available this week. According to Biden's statement when proposing the relief plan, he will introduce his reconstruction plan to members of Congress when he attends the joint session of Congress for the first time and delivers a speech to the joint session of Congress, so the reconstruction plan may be officially unveiled in April.</p><p>Since Biden's reconstruction plan has not yet been announced, this report uses the infrastructure plan and tax increase plan proposed by Biden during the election campaign as a blue book for analysis.</p><p>1. Biden infrastructure: how to build it?</p><p>Regarding Biden's infrastructure, we can mainly clarify four issues. First, is it necessary for the United States to develop infrastructure at present? Second, is there any historical experience of the U.S. government leading large-scale infrastructure investment? If so, from a historical comparison, what is the scale of Biden's infrastructure investment? Third, how to build the specific areas and measures of the infrastructure plan? Fourth, what is the impact of the infrastructure plan on the US economy?</p><p>(1) Is it necessary for the United States to develop infrastructure at present?</p><p>The current infrastructure situation in the United States is worrying, and it is very necessary to make large-scale investment. Most infrastructure systems in the United States were built in the 1960s, and many facilities have reached their maximum useful life and are close to being scrapped.</p><p>First, the infrastructure situation is worrying, and the comprehensive evaluation grade is low. The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) rated U.S. infrastructure with a D + (grade A-F) in 2017, and the rating was raised to C-in 2021. Although the rating has improved, it also shows that the infrastructure in the United States is still mostly below standard, showing serious deterioration. From a global comparison, the rating of the infrastructure sector in the United States has also been declining in the past two decades. According to the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report, the United States ranked 13th in the world in the field of infrastructure in 2019, compared with 5th in 2002, a drop of 8 places in 17 years.</p><p>2. There is currently a large-scale infrastructure investment gap in the United States. If it is not filled, it will have a huge negative impact on economic and social development. There are two sources of assessment: 1) The 2021 report of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) believes that the total gap in infrastructure investment in the United States has reached 2.59 trillion US dollars in the next ten years. If it is not made up, the United States will lose 10 trillion US dollars by 2039. GDP, a loss of 2.4 trillion exports. 2) McKinsey's 2016 study believes that from 2017 to 2030, $150 billion in infrastructure investment will be needed every year to keep up with the U.S. economy's demand for infrastructure.</p><p>3. U.S. infrastructure spending is far lower than that of major economies in the world, and it mainly relies on state and local governments. European countries spend the equivalent of 5% of GDP on building and maintaining infrastructure, and China's infrastructure expenditure averages about 8% of its GDP, while the United States only spends 2.4% [1]. In addition, unlike most other industrialized countries, the United States mainly relies on local and state government expenditures to meet its infrastructure needs. Most European countries or regions provide funds for most infrastructure construction at the national level, but only 25% of public infrastructure funds in the United States in 2017 came from the federal government. This figure is far lower than the peak of 38% in 1977, indicating that the federal government has less and less responsibility for spending on public infrastructure. As the stock of infrastructure in the United States continues to increase, state and local governments have to bear more operating and maintenance costs, which has also caused new investment in infrastructure to decline since the early 2000s.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92d1fe0e962d44eff5f6d6a13da64df6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80cf9e50d231575711b16ef73e71bb98\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(2) Has the federal government made major investments in infrastructure in history?</p><p>Since the last century, the United States has experienced four large-scale infrastructure investments led by the federal government. From a historical comparison, Biden's infrastructure plan is the second largest federal infrastructure investment in the United States since the last century. Since the last century, the U.S. federal government has led four rounds of large-scale infrastructure investment. The largest investment is Roosevelt's New Deal, with public works-related expenditures of $18 billion, accounting for 31% of GDP in 1933; The smallest investment is Obama's ARRA Act, in which infrastructure expenditure is US $120 billion, accounting for 0.8% of GDP in 2009. Eisenhower's cost of building interstate highways was $25 billion, accounting for about 5.6% of GDP in 1956, and Clinton's total investment in information superhighway plan was 400 billion, accounting for 5.8% of GDP in 1993. Infrastructure spending announced on Biden's campaign website is approximately US $1.3 trillion, accounting for approximately 6.1% of GDP in 2019, making it the second largest investment since the last century.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/482f1bb788c01537a9201e79b2e0f4b1\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>1. Roosevelt's New Deal</p><p>After the Great Depression, in order to stimulate employment recovery, Roosevelt signed the National Industrial Recovery Act in 1933. He believed that extensive public works programs could directly bring employment opportunities. Through the establishment of Federal Economic Relief Agency, Public Works Administration (PWA), Public Utilities Promotion Agency (WPA) and other agencies, it has brought more than 10 million jobs to the United States. By the eve of World War II, the federal government's engineering expenses and direct relief expenses amounted to $18 billion, accounting for 31% of the U.S. GDP in 1933 and 14% of the U.S. GDP in 1941. If we look at expenditure in a broad sense, the total federal expenditure of Roosevelt's New Deal was $41.7 billion, accounting for 73% of the U.S. GDP in 1933 and 32% of the U.S. GDP in 1941.</p><p>Large-scale public works expenditure has also achieved remarkable results: in terms of public works, WPA's small projects include 78,000 bridges and viaducts, and 572,000 miles of rural roads; In the first six years of its establishment, PWA completed about 1.14 street and highway projects, totaling 37,000 miles [2]. By the eve of World War II, the United States had built nearly 1,000 airports, more than 12,000 sports fields, and more than 800 school buildings and hospitals. In terms of employment, WPA alone provided jobs for about eight million people in 1935-1943.</p><p>2. Eisenhower: Interstate Highway</p><p>In the 1950s, Eisenhower advocated the construction of an interstate highway system in the United States. In 1956, he signed the Federal Aid Highway Act, obtaining a $25 billion authorization to build 41,000 miles of interstate highways over a decade, which would be paid by tax revenue such as the gas tax deposited into the Federal Highway Trust Fund, with the federal government providing about 90% of the total expenditure and the remaining 10% being paid by the states. The cost of building interstate highways was about 5.6% of U.S. GDP in 1956.</p><p>3. Clinton: Information Superhighway Plan</p><p>In 1992, US presidential candidate Clinton proposed to build an information superhighway during the election campaign. After Clinton took office in 1993, the information superhighway plan was officially implemented. The planned investment is US $400 billion over 20 years, and telecommunications optical cables will be gradually laid to all household users. In 1994, the U.S. government put forward the initiative of building a global information infrastructure, aiming at connecting the global information network through satellite communications and telecommunications optical cables to form a competitive mechanism for information sharing [3]. The total investment in the information superhighway plan accounted for 5.8% of the GDP of the United States in 1993.</p><p>4. Obama: ARRA fiscal stimulus bill</p><p>After the financial crisis, Obama signed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), a fiscal stimulus bill, in February 2009, with an initial total scale of $787 billion. In 2015, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the total expenditure would be about $840 billion, of which about 120 billion was used for infrastructure projects, including 48 billion for transportation and public transportation projects, 31 billion for modernization of federal buildings, 31 billion for modernization of school facilities and scientific facilities, 6 billion for water conservancy projects and 5 billion for housing climate renovation projects. The infrastructure expenditure of the ARRA Act accounted for only 0.8% of GDP in 2009.</p><p>(3) Specific measures for Biden's infrastructure plan?</p><p>1. Three key points of infrastructure plan</p><p>The plan to build modern, sustainable infrastructure and a fair and clean energy future proposed on Biden's campaign website spans 10 years and has a total scale of US $2 trillion, accounting for approximately 9.3% of GDP in 2019; If we only look at infrastructure expenditure, it is about US $1.3 trillion, accounting for about 6.1% of GDP in 2019. The plan announced on the campaign website has two characteristics:</p><p>First, the content is very extensive. The plan is not limited to traditional infrastructure and clean energy investment, but also includes new infrastructure such as smart cities and broadband, automobile industry development, building renovation and affordable housing construction, sustainable agriculture, manufacturing revitalization and small and medium-sized enterprise development, community equality and development and other fields.</p><p>Second, promoting employment and rebuilding the middle class are the highlights. It can be said that increasing employment and rebuilding the middle class is a major purpose of Biden's infrastructure development. In Biden's vision, the plan can significantly create new jobs. For example, investment in infrastructure will create millions of jobs, investment in the automobile industry will create 1 million jobs, investment in the power sector will create millions of jobs, investment in construction and housing will create 1 million high-paying jobs, agricultural protection will create 250,000 jobs, etc.</p><p>Third, keep manufacturing in the United States. Preventing the relocation of manufacturing industries is inherently consistent with the need to create jobs. This statement has been mentioned many times in the plan, such as: ensuring that automobile manufacturers are encouraged to build or restructure complete vehicle or parts factories in China; Invest in battery technology but ensure that battery production takes place domestically, etc.</p><p>In addition, it is worth noting that the specific investment amount in various fields in the infrastructure plan is still unclear, and only a few projects have proposed clear investment amounts. Because the brief introduction of the plan is very rough and there is no very detailed expenditure plan, the investment amount is only proposed in a few projects, such as: increasing federal procurement by $400 billion during the first term (the specific procurement plan is not specified); $100 billion to improve public school buildings; In his first year in office, he invested $50 billion in repairing highways, highways and bridges; Invest $20 billion in rural broadband infrastructure and provide $60 billion in funding to expand broadband access in rural areas; Invest an additional $10 billion over 10 years to support transportation projects in low-income areas; The $40 billion, 10-year transformation project fund is used to fund major infrastructure projects and so on. If the investment quota is explicitly mentioned in the introduction of the plan, the total amount is only over 800 billion dollars.</p><p>2. Not only infrastructure, but the plan covers eight major areas</p><p>Overall, Biden's infrastructure plan is not limited to the field of infrastructure, but covers a very wide range of areas, covering modern infrastructure, automobile industry development, clean power investment, building renovation and housing construction, clean energy investment, sustainable agriculture, and community equality There are eight major areas of development and manufacturing revitalization (the following is an introduction, see the appendix for details).</p><p>First, build modern infrastructure facilities.</p><p>1) Road repair and construction. In the first year of his administration, he invested $50 billion in repairing highways, roads and bridges, and investing in transportation in remote areas. 2) The second railway revolution. Invest heavily in high-speed rail, improve the passenger and freight railway system, promote the electrification of the railway system, and reduce diesel emissions. 3) Vigorously develop public transportation. By 2030, build a high-quality public transport system in cities with a population of more than 100,000. Invest an additional $10 billion over 10 years to support transportation projects in low-income areas. 4) Improve the airport. Double funding for airport improvement programs, competitive grants for major airport renovation projects, full implementation of next-generation aviation technology systems, etc. 5) Invest heavily in freight infrastructure, including inland waterways, freight corridors, freight railways, transit facilities and ports. Increase the BUILD and INFRA transportation infrastructure grant project grants from 1.8 billion to 3.5 billion per year; Add 2.5 billion annual funding for the Army Corps of Engineers to promote lock modernization on inland waterways; Support port infrastructure. 6) Water conservancy infrastructure construction. Replace aging pipes, double federal investment in clean drinking water and water infrastructure, monitor lead and other pollutants in water systems, and hold polluting enterprises accountable. Invest in water technology research and development and call on private sector innovation. 7) New infrastructure projects: smart city construction. Help 5 cities pilot new planning strategies and smart city technologies with $1 billion a year. Invest in broadband networks. Invest $20 billion to build rural broadband infrastructure, 60 billion to expand broadband access in rural areas, increase the number of broadband providers participating, etc. 8) Establish a transformation project fund. Set up a $40 billion, 10-year transformation project fund to provide assistance for huge and complex infrastructure projects.</p><p>Second, make the U.S. auto industry lead the world this century and accelerate the transition to low-carbon and carbon-free vehicles.</p><p>1) Demand side: Restore full tax credits for electric vehicles, use federal procurement to increase demand for clean vehicles, and accelerate the upgrade of 3 million government system vehicles. Set a goal of all new U.S.-made buses being zero-emissions by 2030, converting 500,000 school buses nationwide into zero-emission vehicles. 2) Encourage automobile manufacturers to build or restructure complete vehicle or parts factories in China. 3) Invest $5 billion in battery and energy storage technology over five years, while ensuring battery production takes place domestically. 4) Establish a national charging system of 500,000 public charging outlets, with an additional $1 billion in annual funding to ensure that charging stations are installed by certified technicians. 5) Convene the U.S. Department of Energy and Transportation to coordinate special demonstration projects to provide grants to municipalities and counties willing to pilot new charging infrastructure. 6) Establish fuel economy standards and reduce air pollution.</p><p>Third, clean power investment: achieve carbon-free power generation by 2035.</p><p>1) Develop clean electricity and achieve carbon-free power generation by 2035. 2) Vigorously develop the power grid, promote market reform, and expand the regional power market. 3) Establish Energy Efficiency and Clean Electricity Standards (EECES) for utilities and grid operators; 4) Upgrade transmission lines to support larger regional electricity markets and promote large-scale energy storage demonstration projects. 5) Research investments and tax incentives for technologies that capture carbon, permanently sequestrate and utilize captured carbon will be doubled.</p><p>Fourth, building renovation to improve building energy efficiency.</p><p>1) Promote school modernization. Invest $100 billion to improve public school buildings and upgrade childcare and early learning facilities across the country. 2) Building energy-saving renovation. Upgrade 4 million commercial buildings and carry out energy-saving renovations for 2 million households within 4 years. Promote the electrification of the construction industry and increase investment in key technologies such as energy-saving renovation projects of low-income houses and electric heat pumps; Building net-zero carbon federal buildings, etc. 3) Halve the carbon footprint of U.S. building stock by 2035. 4) Promote the construction of 1.5 million public housing units and inject more funds into low-income communities to promote the construction of affordable housing and the development of small businesses.</p><p>Fifth, make historic investments in clean energy innovation.</p><p>1) Increase federal procurement by $400 billion during the first term, with one focus on the purchase of key clean energy inputs such as batteries and electric vehicles. 2) Focus on strategic research areas such as clean energy, clean transportation, clean industrial processes and clean materials in the next 4 years. 3) Strengthen and build key clean energy supply chains in the United States, solve issues such as dependence on rare earth minerals, and accelerate innovation in supply chain resilience. 4) Invest heavily in national laboratories, high-performance computing capability facilities, and other critical infrastructure.</p><p>Sixth, invest in sustainable agriculture and environmental conservation.</p><p>1) Call on and mobilize a new generation of Americans to devote themselves to protecting the environment and tackling climate change through civil climate organizations. 2) Make upfront investments to clean up environmental damage and impacts caused by previous resource extraction. 3) Maintaining farms and ranches in America. Provide low-cost funding for farmers to transition to new equipment and methods, fund research and development of precision agriculture and new crops, and establish voluntary carbon farming markets; Pursue pro-worker and pro-family farmer trade policies; Strengthening food supply security and resilience; Ensure fair competition among small and medium-sized farms, etc.</p><p>Seventh, community equality and development.</p><p>1) $5 billion annually to expand the new market tax credit and make the program permanent; 2) Double funding for the Community Development Financial Institutions Fund to support financial institutions in low-income areas. 3) Establish a $10 billion Urban Revitalization Fund to carry out creative revitalization projects in struggling cities. 4) Funding anchor institutions in poor areas (referring to hospitals, colleges and universities, and government administrative institutions, etc.). 5) Fully implement the 10-20-30 program (allocating 10% of all federal programs to counties where 20% or more of the population has lived below the poverty line in the past 30 years).</p><p>Eighth, revitalize the manufacturing industry and small and medium-sized enterprises across the country.</p><p>1) Revitalize the manufacturing industry. Quadruple funding for the Manufacturing Expansion Partnership program to provide technical support for small manufacturers in global competition; Developing low-carbon manufacturing in every state; Use tax credits and subsidies to help businesses upgrade equipment and processes, invest in expanded or new factories, and deploy low-carbon technologies; Providing funding for more competitive or low-carbon manufacturing, etc. 2) Promote the development of small and medium-sized enterprises. Extend the National Small Business Credit Initiative program until 2025, and increase federal funding to $3 billion; Provide $5 billion to states to develop policies that encourage small business entrepreneurship, such as supporting technology transfer from public universities to the private sector.</p><p>(4) What is the impact of Biden's infrastructure construction on the US economy?</p><p>How to assess the impact of infrastructure expenditure on the economy? We can learn from the past evaluation results of infrastructure effects by American academic circles and think tanks: 1) A study by the University of Maryland in 2014 showed that every dollar spent on public transportation infrastructure investment will increase GDP growth by about $3. During the economic recession The impact is greater. 2) According to a 2014 University of Chicago report, an $83 billion infrastructure investment plan-equivalent to roughly 0.6% of GDP-would create 1.7 million jobs in the first three years. 3) According to estimates by global consulting firm McKinsey, every 1 percentage point of GDP increase in U.S. infrastructure spending will add 1.5 million jobs to the economy. 4) The Economic Policy Institute estimates that the return on infrastructure investment is high. A review of dozens of infrastructure studies shows that every $100 spent … will increase private sector output by $13 (median) and $17 (average), respectively, in the long run. 5) According to the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) 's assessment of Obama's ARRA bill, the output multiplier of infrastructure category is between 0.4-2.2.</p><p>We can learn from the evaluation results of infrastructure effects by American academic circles and think tanks to roughly estimate the overall impact of Biden's infrastructure plan on the U.S. economy and employment.</p><p>1) Impact on GDP: In Biden's infrastructure plan, the determined infrastructure expenditure is approximately US $1.3 trillion, the investment cycle is 10 years, and the average annual expenditure is approximately US $130 billion, accounting for approximately 0.6% of GDP in 2019. Based on the output multiplier of 0.4-3 (combined with the output multiplier estimated by the University of Maryland and CBO), in the next ten years, the annual additional output contribution to GDP will be approximately US $52 billion to US $390 billion, which is approximately 0.2% to 1.8% of nominal GDP in 2019.</p><p>2) Impact on employment: According to the employment impact estimate of the University of Chicago, infrastructure spending of 1.3 trillion yuan will create more than 2 million jobs per year in the next decade. According to McKinsey's assessment, it is estimated that about 10 million jobs will be created in the next decade. The employment impact of the Biden team in the plan brief is estimated to drive more than 10 million jobs. Taken together, Biden's reconstruction plan may create more than 10 million jobs in the United States in the next ten years.</p><p>3) Bank of America estimated in a report that Biden's $2 trillion infrastructure plan could lead to GDP growth of 2% to 9% in the short term and significant GDP growth in the long term, and that every 1% increase in U.S. GDP growth will lead to an increase of about 3% to 4% in S&P 500 company earnings [4].</p><p>2. Biden's tax increase: how?</p><p>Similarly, we understand Biden's tax increase from four questions. First, is Biden sure to raise taxes? What is the purpose of the tax increase? Second, is there a precedent for tax increases in American history? Third, how does Biden plan to raise taxes? Fourth, what impact will tax increases have on the US economy?</p><p>(1) Is Biden sure to raise taxes? What is the purpose?</p><p>Is Biden going to raise taxes? The tax increase should be yes. First, Biden clearly proposed a tax increase plan during the campaign. This is one of his campaign slogans and will most likely be fulfilled. Second, it is written on Biden's campaign website that as much as $1.3 trillion in investment in infrastructure will all be funded by ensuring that the super-rich and corporations pay their fair (tax) share. Third, Treasury Secretary Yellen has said that part of the spending on the next bill (referring to Biden's Reconstruction Plan bill) will be raised by tax increases.</p><p>Biden's tax increase has three purposes: first, to raise funds for the reconstruction plan, second, to fulfill campaign promises, third, to promote tax fairness through tax adjustments, and to adjust the gap between the rich and the poor through secondary distribution. From the adjustment of the tax system, it can be clearly seen that the tax burden pressure of the rich, high-income class and enterprises has increased, while the tax credit of low-and middle-income people has obviously expanded.</p><p>(2) Is there a precedent for tax increase?</p><p>Before 1950, the highest marginal tax rates of personal income tax and corporate income tax in the United States showed a gradual upward trend. During this period, the main reason for tax increase was to raise funds for war. During World War I and World War II, the highest marginal tax rates of personal income tax and corporate income tax rose sharply. Since the 1950s, the highest marginal tax rates of personal income tax and corporate income tax in the United States have shown a gradual downward trend as a whole, with many periods of tax reduction and few periods of tax increase.</p><p>Since 1950, there have been five major tax cuts: Kennedy's tax cut in 1963, Carter's tax cut in 1979, Reagan's tax cut in 1980s, George W. Bush's tax cut in 2001, and Trump's tax cut in 2017.</p><p>The most obvious tax increases since 1950 have been three times.</p><p>The first time was in the late 1960s, and the main reason for the tax increase was war factors. From 1968 to 1970, in order to cope with the expenditure of the Vietnam War, the United States imposed a Vietnam War surtax, which was abolished after 1970.</p><p>The second time was in 1990, in order to cope with the sharp increase in social public expenditure such as defense and medical care, George H.W. Bush passed the Monitoring Budget Mediation Act of 1990 in 1990, which raised the highest marginal tax rate of personal income tax from 28% to 31%.</p><p>The third time was Clinton's tax increase in 1993, and this time it was also the largest and largest tax increase in the United States since 1950. In order to reduce the fiscal deficit, Clinton proposed a tax increase plan in 1993, increasing the maximum marginal tax rate of personal income tax from 31% to 39.6% and the maximum marginal tax rate of corporate income tax from 34% to 35%. It is worth noting that the increase in the highest marginal tax rate of personal income tax from 35% to 39.6% in 2012 was not caused by the tax increase, but because George W. Bush's tax reduction period had expired, and the tax rate automatically returned to the level before the tax reduction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/059fc482c64a72c92006019e12fd347f\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a271519721bfe2d2e70b5c022a30421\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(3) How does Biden plan to increase taxes?</p><p>Biden's tax increase is mainly in two aspects:<b>First, the payroll tax, income tax, capital gains tax and inheritance tax of high-income groups; second, the corporate income tax rate is re-raised and some corporate taxes are adjusted.</b>It can be seen from the specific details of the following clauses that Biden's tax increase targets are very clear, that is, wealthy groups and enterprises, and the tax incentives and credits for the middle and lower classes of society have actually increased.</p><p>1. Adjustment of individual tax system: the tax burden of the rich increases, while the burden of the middle and lower classes reduces</p><p>1) A 12.4% Social Security payroll tax is imposed on people earning more than $400,000 a year, which is equally divided between employers and employees. Under the advance tax law, individuals earning more than 137,700 per year are not required to pay Social Security payroll taxes.</p><p>2) Increase the maximum individual income tax rate for taxable income exceeding $400,000 to 39.6% from 37% as stipulated by current law; For groups with an annual income of more than $400,000, even if there are tax incentives for itemized deductions, their personal income tax rate shall not be less than 28%; Restore the Pease limit on deductions for items with taxable income exceeding $400,000; Phase out the qualifying business income deduction for groups with taxable income over $400,000.</p><p>3) Taxes long-term capital gains and qualified Dividend income above $1 million at the ordinary income tax rate of 39.6%, eliminating the progressiveness of capital gains tax.</p><p>4) Tax credits: Expand the earned income tax credit for childless employees over 65 to provide renewable energy-related tax credits for individuals; Expand the Child and Dependent Tax Credit (CDCTC) from a maximum of $3,000 to $8,000 ($16,000 for multiple dependents) and increase the maximum reimbursement rate from 35% to 50%. In 2021, increase the Child Tax Credit (CTC) for children 17 and under from a maximum of $2,000 to $3,000, while providing an additional $600 credit for children under 6 that the CTC will refund in full. It is worth mentioning that measures regarding CTC have been implemented in the 1.9 trillion relief package; Rebuild the first-time homebuyer tax credit policy with a $15,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers.</p><p>5) Restore the rates and allowances for estate and gift taxes to 2009 levels. After Trump's tax reform in 2017, the inheritance and gift tax exemption for 2018-2025 was increased from 5 million to 10 million per person, and the tax rate was still set at 40%. If it returns to 2009 levels, the tax allowance will be reduced from the current 10 million to 3.5 million, and the tax rate will be increased from 40% to 45%.</p><p>6) Other adjustment items that lack clear information: replacing traditional deductions by providing refundable tax credits to balance the tax benefits of traditional retirement accounts (such as 401 (k) s and IRAs); Elimination of certain provisions of real estate taxes; Expanding the Affordable Care Act's premium tax credit; Create refundable tenant tax credits and provide credits of up to $5 billion per year, designed to keep rent and utility bills below 30% of a tenant's monthly income; Increase the amount of housing tax credit for low-income people.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee544b934d79e80772ee93dede7fba86\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"583\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c55ac12a24c96f38ba548d45117f82cb\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2. Corporate tax system adjustment: the tax burden increases, but the manufacturing industry is encouraged to return</p><p>1) Increase the corporate income tax rate from 21% to 28%.</p><p>2) Impose a minimum tax on companies with book profits exceeding $100 million. The minimum tax is an alternative tax-businesses will pay the higher of regular corporate income tax or the 15% minimum tax, still allowing net operating loss (NOL) and foreign tax credits.</p><p>3) Double the Global Intangible Low Tax Income tax rate for overseas subsidiaries of U.S. companies from 10.5% to 21%. A sub-country assessment of GILTI for overseas subsidiaries is proposed, removing the provision that treats GILTI less than 10% of the qualified business asset investment (QBAI) as a return exemption.</p><p>Before the tax reform in 2017, the United States generally taxed the global income of its companies and residents, and American companies could apply to postpone taxation of the active business income of overseas subsidiaries until the income was repatriated to the United States as Dividend. After the tax reform, the United States exempted the gains from the active business of overseas subsidiaries of American companies from being taxed even if these gains were repatriated (but still taxed the passive investment income of foreign subsidiaries). The U.S. Congress, concerned that the full exemption of overseas income of multinational companies could exacerbate its practice of shifting profits to overseas low-tax jurisdictions, has set a minimum tax rate of 10.5% on low-tax income from intangible assets worldwide to discourage profit shifting. GILTI refers to the revenue generated by intangible assets such as patents, trademarks, and copyrights. Intangible assets are highly moveable, and this tax rate seeks to discourage U.S. companies from moving intangible assets overseas.</p><p>4) Tax credits: Establish a manufacturing tax credit; Expand and make permanent tax credits in new markets; Tax credits for small businesses that adopt workplace retirement savings plans; Expand tax credits related to renewable energy, including those for carbon capture, use and storage and those for residential energy efficiency, and reinstate the Energy Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and EV tax credit, ending tax subsidies for fossil fuels.</p><p>5) Other adjustment items that lack clear information: Impose a 10% surtax on companies that move manufacturing and service jobs abroad in order to sell products or provide services to the U.S. market. Provides a preferred 10% Made in America tax credit for activities that resume production, revitalize facilities that have closed or are about to close, restructure facilities to promote manufacturing employment or expand manufacturing wages.</p><p>(4) The impact of Biden's tax increase on the U.S. economy</p><p>The impact of tax increases on the economy is relatively complex. We mainly draw on the assessment of overseas think tanks to roughly understand the impact of Biden's tax increases on the U.S. economy.<b>As far as economic growth is concerned, both the Tax Foundation and the Tax Policy Center estimate that tax increases will have a negative impact on economic growth in the next decade, which will reduce GDP by 1.62% to 3.4% in the next decade. In terms of tax revenue, the Tax Foundation believes tax increases could raise about 2.8 trillion in tax revenue over the next decade, while the Tax Policy Center estimates that tax increases will reduce federal revenue by $161 billion over the next decade (about 8% of total revenue over those 10 years).</b>In addition, the Tax Foundation predicts that the tax increase will reduce the wage level, lose jobs, narrow the income gap, but reduce the overall after-tax income of residents.</p><p>1. Estimates from the Tax Foundation</p><p>1) Impact on fiscal revenue: Biden's tax plan will raise approximately $2.8 trillion over the next 10 years. 2) Economic impact: In the next decade, it will reduce GDP by a total of 1.62%, GNP by a total of 1.83%, capital stock by 3.75%, long-term average wages by 1.15%, and 542,000 jobs will be lost. 3) The impact of income distribution: Biden's tax plan will reduce the after-tax income of the richest 1% of taxpayers by about 7.7% by 2030, and the average after-tax income of all taxpayers will drop by 1.9%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92310243b616c89248067f2f1a18ffc3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Tax Policy Center (TaxPolicy Center)</p><p>1) Economic impact: The U.S. GDP will decrease by a total of 3.4% in the next ten years. The impact on GDP will turn positive in 2040. In the years after 2040, the positive impact will gradually increase. 2) Revenue impact: It will reduce U.S. federal revenue by $161 billion from 2021 to 2030 (approximately 8% of total revenue for those 10 years) and by $90 billion from 2031 to 2040. By 2040, the impact of the tax plan on federal revenue will turn positive, and its positive effect will gradually increase in the subsequent years of 2040.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b75c8d26db2d05446f6e6db4dec6a9a\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0a76e285bdc0d17be49c9ec0fbade5\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>3. Key time points: When may the formal reconstruction plan be launched?</p><p>At present, the Biden team has not announced the formal plan and investment details. To track Biden's reconstruction plan in the future, there are two key time points worthy of attention:</p><p><b>The first key time point: April-May this year.</b></p><p>When Biden first proposed the U.S. relief plan on January 14 this year, he made it clear: Next month, when I attend my first joint session of Congress, I will propose my 'Recovery Plan for a Better Future' [5]. Under normal circumstances, Biden's reconstruction plan should have been formally proposed in February, but the epidemic is the top priority. On February 11, House Speaker Pelosi said that we will not do anything until we pass the COVID-19 pandemic relief bill.</p><p>When will the joint session of Congress be held? That's the key. On March 24, White House spokesperson Psaki said that there is no time set yet … We are certainly still interested in committing to a joint meeting. We will be in touch with them, but I don't know exactly when. Historically, presidents have attended and delivered speeches to joint sessions of Congress no later than February. It is now expected overseas that Biden will officially attend the joint session of Congress [6] in April, when he will introduce the reconstruction plan to lawmakers. According to Goldman Sachs, the White House may submit a detailed budget plan to Congress in May. According to the statement of the top Democratic Party, it is hoped that the infrastructure plan will pass the committees under the Senate and the House of Representatives in May. Therefore, we expect that the total scale of the reconstruction plan and the specific project details will most likely be announced in April-May.</p><p><b>The second critical time point: October.</b></p><p>The launch and implementation of Biden's reconstruction plan requires the approval of the U.S. Congress. At present, the Democratic Party controls the House of Representatives and can easily pass bills in the House of Representatives. But the Democratic Party has only a slight advantage in the Senate, with only one more vote than the Republican Party, and can't bypass the Senate filibuster (60 votes required). There are only two ways for Biden's reconstruction plan to pass the Senate. First, on the premise of ensuring the consent of all Democratic senators, win the support of at least 10 Republican senators. The second is to start the budget reconciliation process again, which is consistent with the congressional process of the 1.9 trillion U.S. relief plan, and only 51 votes are needed to pass the Senate.</p><p>Judging from the current attitude of the top Republican Senate, the feasibility of the first method is very low. Senate Republican leader McConnell said on Monday: We have heard that the so-called infrastructure bill may be proposed in the next few months. In fact, it may be a Trojan horse hiding substantial tax increases and other left-wing policies that harm jobs.</p><p>If Biden's reconstruction plan is to be implemented, the most likely thing is to start the budget reconciliation process. The U.S. fiscal year is from October to September of the following year, and the budget reconciliation process can generally only be used once a fiscal year (originally, the three areas of revenue, expenditure and deficit have an opportunity to start the budget reconciliation process every fiscal year, but the bill generally involves more than one area, basically all three areas will be covered. According to historical experience, the budget reconciliation process is also at most once a fiscal year). This year's 1.9 trillion U.S. relief plan has already used the quota of fiscal year 2021. October is the second critical point in time. First, by October, the Democratic Party can activate the budget reconciliation process again. Second, judging from the statements of Democratic lawmakers, they hope to quickly pass the reconstruction plan bill. For example, House Speaker Pelosi hopes that Congress will take quick action to formulate a transformative infrastructure plan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b55345e7966f98cb44655e2ee1d5f0ea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Appendix IV: Detailed Contents of Biden's Reconstruction Plan</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aeb3bd2d6946393ea99fee60d03300f\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/118a22c23672c23b7ffdaff2e00b0f9b\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fd4d7b6dfaec3e2161aa5abc88d706f\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee04e29c93d385e9e3f0123b9a2a6941\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a302cf76ac1ec43059d2ec6818aa587\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/wHg1mjYamSNUdcMzJvj0VA\"> 一瑜中的</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff7dc206228e5f0b17e2120c141f32db","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/wHg1mjYamSNUdcMzJvj0VA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170764582","content_text":"作者：张瑜 付春生主要观点1.9万亿美元救济落地后，关于拜登基建计划的讨论热度迅速升温。由于计划目前尚未正式公布，本篇报告以拜登在竞选时提出的基建计划和加税计划作为蓝本，从四个角度（必要性、历史比较、具体措施、影响）去理解拜登的基建和加税，以期对未来正式的重建计划的措施和影响进行大致摸底。拜登基建：怎么建？一、美国目前有没有必要大兴基建？非常有必要。首先，基础设施状况堪忧。据ASCE最新评估，美国基础设施仍「大多低于标准」，表现出较为严重的「恶化」状况。据《全球竞争力报告》，2019年美国在基础设施领域的排名居全球第13位，2002年时则居第5位。其次，存在大规模投资缺口。未来十年基建总投资缺口已经达到2.59万亿美元。最后，基建支出力度远低于主要经济体，欧洲基建支出相当于GDP的5％，中国基建支出约占GDP的8％，而美国仅为2.4％。美国主要依赖地方和州政府进行基建投资，但地方政府逐渐「力不能及」。随着基建存量不断增加，州和地方政府不得不承担更多的运营和维护成本，新增投资额自21世纪初以来一直下降。二、有无联邦政府主导基建投资的先例？从历史比较看，拜登基建是上世纪来美国第二大规模的联邦基建投资。上世纪以来，美国联邦政府主导了四轮大规模基建投资，投资力度最大的是罗斯福新政，公共工程类支出180亿美元，占1933年GDP的31%；投资力度最小的是奥巴马ARRA法案，基建类支出1200亿美元，占2009年GDP的0.8%。艾森豪威尔修建州际高速公路的耗资为250亿美元，占1956年GDP的5.6%，克林顿的信息高速公路计划总投资额4000亿，占1993年GDP的5.8%。拜登基建投资的规模大约1.3万亿美元，占2019年GDP的6.1%，是上世纪以来规模第二大的投资。三、拜登基建的具体措施有哪些？拜登竞选网站上提出的计划规模为2 万亿美元，为期10年，占2019年GDP的9.3%；其中基建投资1.3万亿美元，占2019年GDP的6.1%。计划有三个重点：1）内容十分广泛。涵盖了现代化基建、汽车工业发展、清洁电力投资、建筑改造和住房建设、清洁能源投资、可持续农业、社区平等发展和制造业振兴共八大领域。2）促进就业和重建中产阶级是「重头戏」。3）把制造业留在美国。防止制造业外迁与创造就业的需求是内在一致的。需注意的是，计划中各领域的投资额尚不明晰，只有少数项目提出了明确投资额。四、拜登基建对美国经济有何影响？1）对GDP的影响：10年里，每年基建支出约1300亿，按照产出乘数0.4-3来估计（马里兰大学和CBO的评估），每年对GDP的额外产出贡献约为520亿~3900亿美元，约为2019年名义GDP的0.2%~1.8%。2）对就业的影响：拜登的重建计划在未来十年或将给美国创造超千万的就业岗位。3）美银估计，拜登基建计划在短期内可能会带来2％至9％的GDP增长，从长期来看会使GDP「显著增长」。拜登加税：怎么加？一、拜登加税基本是确定的。三大理由：1）加税是拜登竞选口号之一，大概率将履行。2）在拜登竞选网站上明确写到， 1.3万亿基建投资将全部通过「确保超级富豪和企业支付他们公平的（税收）份额」来筹集。3）财政部长耶伦曾表示，下一个法案（拜登重建计划）的一部分支出将由加税来筹集。二、加税有先例可寻。1950年代以来，美国所得税率整体呈下降趋势，减税多，加税少。主要的加税有三次，一是1968-1970年为应对越战开支而征收的「越战附加税」。二是1990年老布什为应对赤字增长而加税。三是1993年克林顿加税，这也是1950年以来美国最大范围和规模的一次加税，其目的也是为了削减财政赤字。三、富人税负增加，中下阶层减负；企业税负增加，但鼓励制造业回流。拜登的加税对象非常明确，就是富有群体和企业，对社会中下阶层的税收优惠和抵免反而提高了。一方面，提高富裕群体的工资税、所得税、资本利得税和遗产税等，另一方面，重新上调企业所得税率，对其他一些企业税进行调整。四、拜登加税对美国经济有何影响？就经济增长而言，税务基金会和税收政策中心均预估加税会对未来十年对经济增长造成负面影响，会使未来十年GDP下降1.62%~3.4%。就税收收入而言，税务基金会认为加税在未来十年可以筹集约2.8万亿税收收入，而税收政策中心估计加税将使未来十年联邦收入减少1610亿美元（约占10年总收入的8%）。此外税务基金会预计加税将使工资水平下降、就业岗位流失，使收入差距缩小但整体居民税后收入下降。两个关键时间点：正式的重建计划可能会在什么时候推出？第一个关键时间点：今年4-5月。拜登在今年1月14日提出「美国救济计划」时曾明确说道：「在我下个月第一次出席国会联席会议时，我将提出我的‘重建更好未来的复苏计划’。」拜登的重建计划本应该在2月份就正式提出，但疫情才是第一要务，2月11日众议院议长佩洛西表示，「在我们通过新冠疫情纾困法案之前，我们不会做任何事情。」由于美国救济计划在国会遭遇阻力，直到3月14日才正式落地，因此拜登至今还未出席国会联席会议，重建计划也还没有正式提出。国会联席会议什么时候召开呢？这是关键。3月24日白宫发言人普萨基表示，目前还没有确定时间。历史上，总统出席国会联席会议并发表「在国会联席会议上的演讲」的时间最晚不超过2月份。现在海外预期拜登将在4月正式出席国会联席会议，那么届时他将向议员介绍重建计划。另据高盛预计，白宫或在5月向国会递交详细的预算方案。再根据民主党高层的表态，希望基建方案能在5月通过参众两院下属的委员会，所以我们预计，重建计划的总规模和具体的项目细节大概率将于4-5月公布。第二个关键时间点：10月。第一，10月以后民主党可再次启用「预算和解程序」。第二，民主党高层的积极表态表明其会尽可能快地推动重建计划进入国会表决或者在新财年伊始就推动重建计划再走预算和解程序。风险提示：民主党内部就重建计划产生分歧。报告目录报告正文在1.9万亿美国救济计划落地后，关于拜登重建计划（Build Back Better Recovery Plan，因其大部分措施与基建相关，国内外相关报道和报告也将之称为「拜登基建计划」）的讨论热度迅速升温。据彭博3月22日的报道，近期重建计划方案将递交给拜登，且该计划还包含了加税方案。白宫新闻秘书普萨基也在22日表示，「时间快了，所以他本周将与他的团队讨论有哪些选择，规模和范围。」根据拜登在提出救济计划时的表态，他将在第一次出席国会联席会议并发表「在国会联席会议上的演讲」时，向国会议员推介他的重建计划，所以重建计划或将在4月正式「亮相」。由于拜登的重建计划目前尚未公布，本篇报告就以拜登在竞选时提出的基建计划和加税计划作为蓝本来分析。一、拜登基建：怎么「建」？关于拜登基建，我们主要弄清楚四个问题即可。第一，美国目前有没有必要大兴基建？第二，有没有美国政府主导基建大投资的历史经验？如果有，从历史比较，拜登基建投资规模如何？第三，基建计划的具体领域和措施，到底如何建？第四，基建计划对美国经济的影响如何？（一）美国目前有必要大兴基建吗？美国目前的基础设施状况堪忧，非常有必要进行大规模投资。美国大部分的基础设施系统建成于1960年代，许多设施已经达到了最大使用期限，接近「报废」的关头。一、基础设施状况堪忧，综合评定等级较低。美国土木工程师学会（ASCE）2017年对美国基础设施的评定等级为「D+」（等级为A-F），2021年的评定等级升至「C-」。虽然评级有所好转，但也表明美国基础设施仍「大多低于标准」，表现出较为严重的「恶化」状况。从全球比较看，近二十年来美国基础设施领域的评级也在不断下降。根据世界经济论坛的《全球竞争力报告》，2019年美国在基础设施领域的排名位居全球第13位，而2002年时则位居5位，17年里下降了8个名次。二、美国目前存在大规模基建投资缺口，如果不弥补，会对经济和社会发展造成巨大负面影响。有两个评估来源：1）美国土木工程师学会（ASCE）2021年报告认为，未来十年美国基建投资总缺口已经达到2.59万亿美元，如果不弥补，到2039年美国将损失10万亿GDP，损失2.4万亿出口。2）麦肯锡2016年的研究认为，从2017年至2030年，每年需要1500亿美元的基础设施投资，才能跟上美国经济对基础设施的需求。三、美国基建支出力度远低于世界主要经济体，并且主要依赖于州和地方政府。欧洲国家在建设和维护基础设施上的支出相当于GDP的5％，中国的基础设施支出平均约占其GDP的8％，而美国仅为2.4％[1]。此外，与多数其他工业化国家的不同之处在于，美国主要依赖地方和州政府的支出来满足其基础设施的需求。大多数欧洲国家或地区在国家层面上为大部分基础设施建设提供资金，但2017年美国公共基础设施资金中只有25％来自联邦政府，这个数字远低于1977年38％的峰值，表明联邦政府在公共基建上承担的支出责任越来越少。随着美国基建存量不断增加，州和地方政府不得不承担更多的运营和维护成本，也使得基建的新增投资额从2000年代初以来一直下降。（二）历史上联邦政府进行过基建大投资吗？上世纪以来，美国经历过四次联邦政府主导的大规模基建投资，从历史比较看，拜登基建计划是上世纪以来美国第二大规模的联邦基建投资。上世纪以来美国联邦政府主导了四轮大规模基建投资，投资力度最大的是罗斯福新政，公共工程相关支出180亿美元，占1933年GDP的31%；投资力度最小的是奥巴马ARRA法案，其中基建类支出1200亿美元，占2009年GDP的0.8%。艾森豪威尔修建州际高速公路的耗资为250亿美元，约占1956年GDP的5.6%，克林顿的信息高速公路计划总投资额4000亿，占1993年GDP的5.8%。拜登竞选网站上公布的基建类支出大约为1.3万亿美元，约占2019年GDP的6.1%，是上世纪以来规模第二大的投资。1、罗斯福新政大萧条后，为了刺激就业复苏，1933年罗斯福签署《国家工业复兴法》，他认为通过广泛的的公共工程计划能直接带来就业机会。通过设立联邦经济救济署、公共工程管理局（PWA）、公共事业振兴署（WPA）等机构为美国带来了逾千万的就业。到二战前夕，联邦政府工程费用和直接救济费用支出高达180亿美元，占1933年美国GDP比重的31%，占1941年美国GDP比重的14%。如果从广义支出看，罗斯福新政的联邦支出总额为417亿美元，占1933年美国GDP比重的73%，占1941年美国GDP比重的32%。大规模公共工程支出也取得了显著成果：公共工程方面，WPA的小型项目包括了7.8万座桥梁和高架桥、57.2万英里乡村公路；而PWA在建立的前六年里即完成了约1.14个街道和公路项目，总长达3.7万英里[2]。到二战前夕，美国一共修建了近1000座飞机场、12000多个运动场、800多座校舍与医院。就业方面，仅WPA就在1935-1943年为大约八百万人提供了工作机会。2、艾森豪威尔：州际高速公路1950年代，艾森豪威尔主张修建美国州际高速公路系统。1956年，他签署了《联邦援助公路法》，获得了250亿美元的授权，用于在十年内建造4.1万英里的州际高速公路，这笔费用将由存入联邦公路信托基金的汽油税等税收收入支付，联邦政府提供约90%的总支出，其余10%由各州支付。修建州际高速公路的耗资约占1956年美国GDP的5.6%。3、克林顿：「信息高速公路计划」1992年，美国总统候选人克林顿在竞选时提出，要建设信息高速公路。1993年克林顿上台后，正式实施「信息高速公路计划」。计划投资额为4000亿美元，为期20年，逐步将电信光缆铺设到所有家庭用户。1994年，美国政府提出建设全球信息基础设施的倡议，旨在通过卫星通讯和电信光缆连通全球信息网络，形成信息共享的竞争机制[3]。信息高速公路计划总投资额占1993年美国GDP的5.8%。4、奥巴马：ARRA财政刺激法案金融危机后，奥巴马在2009年2月签署财政刺激法案《美国复苏和再投资法案（ARRA）》，初始总规模为7870亿美元，2015年国会预算办公室预计总支出大约为8400亿美元，其中大约有1200亿用于基建项目相关支出，包括：480亿用于运输和公共交通项目，310亿用于联邦建筑现代化改造，310亿用于学校设施和科学设施现代化改造，60亿用于水利项目，50亿用于房屋气候改造项目。ARRA法案的基建类支出规模占2009年GDP比重仅为0.8%。（三）拜登基建计划的具体措施？1、基建计划的三个重点拜登竞选网站上提出的「建设现代、可持续的基础设施和公平、清洁的能源未来」计划，计划跨度为期10年，总规模为 2 万亿美元，约占2019年GDP的9.3%；如果仅看基建类支出，大约为1.3万亿美元，约占2019年GDP的6.1%。竞选网站上公布的计划有两个特点：第一，内容十分广泛。计划不仅仅局限于传统的基础设施和清洁能源投资，还包括智慧城市和宽带等新基建，汽车工业发展，建筑改造和保障性住房建设，可持续农业，制造业振兴和中小企业发展，社区平等和发展等多个领域。第二，促进就业和重建中产阶级是「重头戏」。可以说，增加就业和中产阶级重建是拜登大兴基建的一大主要目的。在拜登的设想里，计划可以大幅创造新的就业岗位，比如：基建领域的投资将创造数百万个就业机会，汽车工业领域将创造100万个就业机会，电力领域的投资将创造数百万个就业岗位，建筑和住房领域投资将创造100万个高薪岗位，农业保护领域将创造25万个工作岗位等。第三，把制造业留在美国。防止制造业外迁，与创造就业的需求是内在一致的。这一说法在计划中多次被提及，比如：确保鼓励汽车制造商在国内建造或重组整车或零部件工厂；投资电池技术但要确保电池生产在国内进行等等。此外，值得说明的是，基建计划中各个领域的具体投资额尚不明晰，只有少数项目提出了明确投资额。由于该计划简介十分「粗糙」，并没有十分细致的支出计划，只在少数项目上提出了投资额，比如：在第一个任期内增加4000亿美元的联邦采购（具体采购计划没有说明）；1000亿美元改善公立学校建筑；执政第一年投入500亿美元修复高速公路、公路和桥梁；投资200亿美元建设农村宽带基础设施，提供600亿资金来扩大农村地区的宽带接入；10年内额外投入100亿美元支持低收入地区的交通项目；400亿美元、为期10年的转型项目基金用于资助重大基建项目等等。计划简介中明确提及投资额度的，零零散散加总，仅有8000多亿美元。2、不仅是基建，计划覆盖八大领域整体来看，拜登的基建计划不仅仅是局限在「基建领域」，覆盖面非常广泛，涵盖了现代化基建、汽车工业发展、清洁电力投资、建筑改造和住房建设、清洁能源投资、可持续农业、社区平等发展和制造业振兴共八大领域（下文是简介，详情参见附录）。第一，构建现代化的基建设施。1）道路修复和建设。执政第一年投入500亿美元用于修复高速公路、道路和桥梁，对边远地区进行交通投资等。2）第二次铁路革命。大力投资高铁，完善客运和货运铁路体系，推动铁路系统电气化，减少柴油排放。3）大力发展公共交通。到2030年，在超过10万人口的城市构建高质量的公共交通系统。在10年内额外投入100亿美元支持低收入地区的交通项目。4）改进机场。为机场改善计划提供双倍资金，为主要机场改造项目提供竞争性赠款，全面实施下一代航空技术系统等。5）大力投资货运基础设施，包括内河航道、货运走廊、货运铁路、中转设施和港口。把BUILD和INFRA交通基建赠款项目赠款从每年18亿提高至35亿；每年为陆军工程兵团增加25亿资金，推动内陆水道的船闸现代化；支持港口基础设施。6）水利基础设施建设。更换老化管道，把联邦对清洁饮用水和水基础设施的投资增加一倍，监测供水系统中铅和其他污染物，追究污染企业的责任。投资水技术研发，号召私人部门创新。7）新基建项目：智能城市建设。每年用10亿美元帮助5个城市试行新的规划战略和智慧城市技术。投资宽带网络。投资200亿美元建设农村宽带基础设施， 600亿资金来扩大农村地区的宽带接入，增加宽带提供商的参与数量等。8）建立转型项目基金。设立一个400亿美元、为期10年的转型项目基金，为庞大复杂的基建项目提供援助。第二，使美国汽车业在本世纪领先全球，加快向低碳和无碳汽车过渡。1）需求方面：恢复电动汽车全额税收抵免，利用联邦采购增加清洁汽车的需求，加速300万辆政府系统汽车的升级换代。设定到2030年所有美国制造的新巴士都实现零排放的目标，将全国50万辆校车转化为零排放汽车。2）鼓励汽车制造商在国内建造或重组整车或零部件工厂。3）五年内在电池和储能技术方面投资50亿美元，同时确保电池生产在国内进行。4）建立一个由50万个公共充电网点组成的全国充电系统，每年额外提供10亿美元资金以确保充电站由经过认证的技术人员安装。5）召集美国能源和交通部协调特别示范项目，向愿意试行新型充电基础设施的市镇和县提供赠款。6）制定燃油经济性标准，减少空气污染。第三，清洁电力投资：2035年实现无碳发电。1）发展清洁电力，到2035年实现无碳发电。2）大力发展电网，推动市场改革，扩大区域电力市场。3）为公用事业和电网运营商建立能源效率和清洁电力标准（ EECES ）；4）升级输电线路以支持更大的区域电力市场，推进大规模储能示范项目。5）将加倍提高对捕获碳、永久封存和利用捕获碳的技术的研究投资和税收优惠。第四，建筑改造，提高建筑能效。1）推动学校现代化。投资1000亿美元改善公立学校建筑，升级全国各地的儿童保育和早期学习设施。2）建筑节能改造。在4年内升级400万栋商业建筑，对200万户家庭进行房屋节能改造。推动建筑行业电气化，加大对低收入房屋节能改造项目和电热泵等关键技术的投资；建造净零碳联邦建筑等。3）2035年美国建筑存量碳足迹减少一半。4）推动建设150万套公共住房，向低收入社区注入更多资金以促进经济适用房的建设和小企业的发展。第五，对清洁能源创新进行历史性投资。1）在第一个任期内增加4000亿美元的联邦采购，其中一个重点是购买电池和电动汽车等关键的清洁能源投入。2）未来4年内专注于清洁能源、清洁交通、清洁工业流程和清洁材料等战略研究领域。3）加强和建设美国关键的清洁能源供应链，解决对稀土矿物的依赖等问题，加快供应链弹性方面的创新。4）大力投资国家实验室、高性能计算能力设施以及其他关键基础设施。第六，投资于可持续农业和环境养护。1）通过民间气候组织号召和动员新一代美国人投入到保护环境和应对气候变化的工作中。2）进行前期投资，以清理以往资源开采对环境造成的破坏和影响。3）维护美国的农场和牧场。为农民向新设备和新方法过渡提供低成本资金，资助精密农业和新作物的研究开发，建立自愿碳农业市场；追求亲工人和亲家庭的农民贸易政策；加强粮食供应的安全性和恢复能力；确保中小型农场的竞争公平等。第七，社区平等和发展。1）每年提供50亿美元，扩大新市场税收抵免并使该计划永久化；2）为社区发展金融机构基金提供双倍资金，支持低收入地区的金融机构。3）设立100亿美元的城市振兴基金，在陷入困境的城市开展创造性的振兴项目。4）资助贫困地区的锚定机构（指医院、学院和大学以及政府行政机构等）。5）全面实施「10-20-30计划（在所有联邦项目中，将10%的资金分配给过去30年有20%或以上的人口生活在贫困线以下的县）」。第八，振兴全国的制造业和中小企业。1）振兴制造业。将制造业扩展伙伴项目的资金提高四倍，为小型制造商在全球竞争中提供技术支持；在每个州发展低碳制造业；利用税收抵免和补贴帮助企业升级设备和流程、投资扩建或新建工厂、部署低碳技术；为更具竞争力或低碳的制造业提供资金等。2）推动中小企业发展。把国家小企业信贷倡议计划延长到2025年，联邦拨款增加至30亿美元；向各州提供50亿美元资金，制定鼓励小企业创业的政策，比如支持从公立大学向私营部门转让技术。（四）拜登基建对美国经济的影响？基建类支出对经济的影响如何评估？可以借鉴过往美国学界和智库对基建效果的评估结果：1）2014年马里兰大学的一项研究表明，公共交通基础设施投资每花费1美元，就会使得GDP增长增加约3美元，在经济衰退期间产生的影响更大。2）根据2014年芝加哥大学的报告，一项830亿美元的基础设施投资计划——大约相当于国内生产总值的0.6%——将在头三年创造170万个就业机会。3）根据全球咨询公司麦肯锡的估计，美国基础设施支出每增加1个百分点的GDP，将为经济增加150万个就业机会。4）经济政策研究所估计，础设施投资的回报率很高。对数十项基础设施研究进行回顾，每支出100美元……从长期来看，将使私营部门的产出分别提高13美元（中位数）和17美元（平均值）。5）据美国国会预算办公室（CBO）对奥巴马ARRA法案的评估，基建类的产出乘数在0.4-2.2之间。可借鉴美国学界和智库对基建效果的评估结果，从整体上大概估算拜登基建计划对美国经济和就业的影响。1）对GDP的影响：拜登基建计划中，确定的基建类支出大约是1.3万亿美元，投资周期10年，平均每年的支出约为1300亿，约占2019年GDP比重的0.6%，按照产出乘数0.4-3来估计（结合马里兰大学和CBO估计的产出乘数），未来十年，每年对GDP的额外产出贡献约为520亿~3900亿美元，约为2019年名义GDP的0.2%~1.8%。2）对就业的影响：根据芝加哥大学的就业影响估计，1.3万亿的基建类支出未来十年将每年创造逾200万个工作岗位。根据麦肯锡的评估结果估计，未来十年将带动约1000万的就业。拜登团队在计划简介中的就业影响估计是带动超1000万个就业。综合来看，拜登的重建计划在未来十年或将给美国创造超千万的就业岗位。3）美国银行在一份报告中估计，拜登的2万亿美元的基础设施计划在短期内可能会带来2％至9％的GDP增长，从长期来看会使GDP「显著增长」，并且美国GDP增长每增加1％，将带来标准普尔500公司收益的3％到4％左右的增长[4]。二、拜登加税：怎么加？同样的，我们从四个问题来理解拜登加税。第一，拜登是不是确定要加税，加税的目的是什么？第二，加税在美国历史上有先例吗？第三，拜登打算怎么加税？第四，加税对美国经济有何影响？（一）拜登确定要加税？目的何在？拜登是否要加税？加税应该是肯定的。第一，拜登在竞选时曾明确提出加税计划，这是其竞选口号之一，大概率将履行。第二，在拜登的竞选网站上写到，基础设施领域多达1.3万亿美元的投资，将全部通过「确保超级富豪和企业支付他们公平的（税收）份额」来筹集资金。第三，财政部长耶伦曾表示，下一个法案（指拜登的重建计划法案）的一部分支出将由加税来筹集。拜登加税的三个目的：一是为重建计划筹集资金，二是兑现竞选承诺，三是通过税制调整以促进税收公平，通过二次分配来调节贫富差距。从税制调整中可以很明显地看出，富人和高收入阶层、企业的税负压力增大，而中低收入者的税收抵免则明显扩大。（二）加税有先例可寻吗？在1950年以前，美国个人所得税和企业所得税最高边际税率均呈逐渐上升趋势，这一时期，加税的主要原因是为战争筹资，在一战和二战期间，个人所得税和企业所得税最高边际税率大幅上升。从1950年代以来，美国个人所得税和企业所得税最高边际税率整体呈逐渐下降趋势，减税时期多，加税时期极少。1950年以来，主要的减税有五次： 1963年肯尼迪减税、1979年卡特减税、1980年代里根减税、2001年小布什减税、2017年特朗普减税。而1950年以来的加税，最明显的有三次。第一次是1960年代后期，加税的主要原因还是战争因素，从1968年-1970年，为了应对越南战争的开支，美国征收了「越战附加税」，1970年以后取消。第二次是1990年老布什为了应对国防和医疗等社会公共开支大幅上升带来赤字增加，在1990年通过《1990年监察预算调解法案》，将个人所得税最高边际税率从28%提高至31%。第三次是1993年克林顿加税，这一次也是1950年以来美国最大范围和规模的一次加税。为了削减财政赤字，克林顿在1993年提出增税计划，将个人所得税最高边际税率从31%提高至39.6%，将企业所得税最高边际税率从34%提高至35%。值得注意的是，2012年个人所得税最高边际税率从35%上升至39.6%并非是加税导致，而是小布什减税期限已满，税率自动回到减税前的水平。（三）拜登打算如何加税？拜登加税主要是在两个方面，一是高收入群体的工资税、所得税、资本利得税和遗产税等，二是重新上调企业所得税率，对一些企业税进行调整。从下述条款的具体细则中可以看出，拜登的加税对象非常明确，就是富有群体和企业，对社会中下阶层的税收优惠和抵免反而提高了。1、个体税制调整：富人税负增加，中下阶层减负1）对年收入超过40万美元的人征收12.4%的社会保障工资税（Social Security payroll tax），由雇主和雇员平分。在先行的税法下，年收入高于13.77万的个人不需要支付社会保障工资税。2）将应税收入超过40万美元的最高个人所得税税率从现行法律规定的37%上调至39.6%；对于年收入超过40万美元的群体，即便有分项扣除的税收优惠，其个人所得税率也不得低于28%；恢复对应税收入超过40万美元的项目扣除额的「皮斯限制」；对应税收入超过40万美元的群体，逐步取消符合资格的业务收入扣除额。3）按39.6%的普通所得税税率对100万美元以上的长期资本利得和合格股息收入征税，消除资本利得税的累进性。4）税收抵免：扩大65岁以上无子女员工的劳动所得税抵免，为个人提供可再生能源相关的税收抵免；将儿童和受扶养人税收抵免(CDCTC)从最高3000美元扩大到8000美元(多个受扶养人为16000美元)，并将最高偿还率从35%提高到50%。在2021年，将17岁及以下儿童的儿童税收抵免(CTC)从最高2000美元提高到3000美元，同时为6岁以下儿童提供600美元的额外抵免，CTC将全额退还。值得一提的是，关于CTC的措施已在1.9万亿救济计划中实施；重建首次购房者的税收抵免政策，为首次购房者提供1.5万美元的税收抵免。5）将遗产税和赠与税的税率和免税额恢复到2009年的水平。2017年特朗普税改后，将2018-2025年的遗产和赠与税的免税额从每人500万提高至1000万，税率仍然定在40%。如果回到2009年水平，免税额将从现在的1000万降至350万，税率则从40%提高至45%。6）其他缺乏明确信息的调整项目：通过提供可退还的税收抵免来取代传统的扣除项目，以平衡传统退休账户(如401(k)和个人退休账户)的税收优惠；取消房地产税的某些规定；扩大《平价医疗法案》的保费税收抵免；创建可退还的租户税收抵免并提供每年不超过50亿美元的抵免额度，旨在将租金和水电费保持在租户月收入的30%以下；加大对低收入者住房税收抵免的额度。2、企业税制调整：税负增加，但鼓励制造业回流1）将企业所得税税率从21%提高到28%。2）对账面利润超过1亿美元的公司征收最低税。最低税是一种替代税——企业将支付常规企业所得税或15%最低税中的更高者，仍然允许净经营亏损(NOL)和外国税收抵免。3）将美国公司海外子公司的全球无形资产低税收收入(Global Intangible Low Tax Income)税率从10.5%提高一倍至21%。提议对海外子公司的GILTI进行分国家评估，取消将低于合格企业资产投资(QBAI) 10%的GILTI视为回报豁免的条款。在2017年税改前，美国一般对其公司和居民的全球收入征税，美国公司可以申请推迟对海外子公司的活跃业务收益征税，直到收益作为股息汇回美国。在税改之后，美国豁免了美国公司海外子公司活跃业务的收益，即使这些收益被汇回国内也不会被征税(但仍对外国子公司的被动投资收入征税)。美国国会担心将跨国公司的海外收入完全豁免，可能会加剧其将利润转移到海外低税收司法管辖区的做法，因此对全球无形资产低税收收入制定了10.5%的最低税率，以阻止利润转移。GILTI是指无形资产(如专利、商标和版权)带来的收入。无形资产具有高度的可移动性，该税率试图阻止美国公司将无形资产转移到海外。4）税收抵免：建立制造业税收抵免；扩大新市场的税收抵免并使之永久化；为采用工作场所退休储蓄计划的小企业提供税收抵免；扩大与可再生能源相关的税收抵免，包括碳捕获、使用和储存的税收抵免以及住宅能效的税收抵免，并恢复能源投资税收抵免(ITC)和电动汽车税收抵免，结束对化石燃料的税收补贴。5）其他缺乏明确信息的调整项目：对那些「为了向美国市场销售产品或提供服务而将制造业和服务业工作岗位转移到国外」的企业征收10%的附加税。为恢复生产、振兴已关闭或即将关闭的设施、重组设施以促进制造业就业或扩大制造业工资规模的活动，提供优先的10%的「美国制造」税收抵免。（四）拜登加税对美国经济的影响加税对经济的影响较为复杂，主要借鉴海外智库的评估来大致了解拜登加税对美国经济的影响。就经济增长而言，税务基金会和税收政策中心均预估加税会对未来十年对经济增长造成负面影响，会使未来十年GDP下降1.62%~3.4%。就税收收入而言，税务基金会认为加税在未来十年可以筹集约2.8万亿税收收入，而税收政策中心估计加税将使未来十年联邦收入减少1610亿美元（约占这10年总收入的8%）。此外，税务基金会预计加税将使工资水平下降、就业岗位流失，使收入差距缩小但整体居民税后收入下降。1、税务基金会（Tax Foundation）的估计1）财政收入的影响：拜登税收计划将在未来10年筹集约2.8万亿美元。2）经济的影响：在未来十年，使GDP总共减少1.62%，GNP总共下降1.83%，使资本存量减少3.75%，使长期平均工资水平下降1.15%，损失54.2万个工作岗位。3）收入分配的影响：拜登的税收计划到2030年将导致最富有的1%纳税人的税后收入减少7.7%左右，所有纳税人的税后收入平均下降1.9%。2、税收政策中心（TaxPolicy Center）1）经济影响：使未来十年美国GDP总共下降3.4%，对GDP的影响将在2040年转正，在2040年以后的年份，正向影响将逐渐增大。2）收入影响：将使2021年至2030年的美国联邦收入减少1610亿美元（约占这10年总收入的8%），2031年至2040年减少900亿美元。到2040年，税收计划对联邦收入的影响将转正，其正效应在2040年的随后年份将逐渐增加。三、关键时间点：正式的重建计划可能会在什么时候推出？目前，拜登团队还没有公布正式的计划方案和投资细则，后续要追踪拜登的重建计划，有两个关键的时间节点值得关注：第一个关键时间点：今年4-5月。拜登在今年1月14日首次提出「美国救济计划」时曾明确说道：「下个月，在我第一次出席国会联席会议时，我将提出我的‘重建更好未来的复苏计划’[5]。」正常情况下，拜登的重建计划本应该在2月份就正式提出，但疫情才是第一要务，2月11日众议院议长佩洛西表示，「在我们通过新冠疫情纾困法案之前，我们不会做任何事情。」由于美国救济计划在国会遭遇阻力，直到3月14日才正式落地，因此拜登至今还未出席国会联席会议，重建计划也还没有正式提出。国会联席会议什么时候召开呢？这是关键。3月24日白宫发言人普萨基表示，「目前还没有确定时间…我们当然仍有兴趣承诺进行一次联合会议。我们会与他们保持联系，但我不知道具体的时间。」历史上，总统出席国会联席会议并发表「在国会联席会议上的演讲」的时间最晚不超过2月份。现在海外预期拜登将在4月正式出席国会联席会议[6]，那么届时他将向议员介绍重建计划。另据高盛预计，白宫或在5月向国会递交详细的预算方案。再根据民主党高层的表态，希望基建方案能在5月通过参众两院下属的委员会，因此我们预计，重建计划的总规模和具体的项目细节大概率将于4-5月公布。第二个关键时间点：10月。拜登的重建计划的推出实施，需要经过美国国会的同意。目前民主党掌控众议院，可以在众议院轻松通过法案。但是民主党在参议院只是略占优势，仅比共和党多1票的投票权，无法绕过参议院的「阻挠议事」（需要60票）。拜登的重建计划要想在参议院获得通过，只有两个办法。一是在保证所有民主党参议员同意的前提下，至少再争取10位共和党参议员的支持。二是再次启用预算和解程序，和1.9万亿美国救济计划走的国会流程一致，只需要51票即可通过参议院。就目前共和党参议院高层的表态来看，第一种办法的可行性非常低，参议院共和党领导麦康奈尔本周一表示：「我们听说，未来几个月可能会提出所谓的基础设施法案，实际上可能是暗藏大幅加税和其他有损就业的左翼政策的特洛伊木马。」拜登的重建计划要想落地，最大的可能是启动预算和解程序。美国财政年度是每年10月至次年9月，预算和解程序一个财年一般只能使用一次（本来收入、支出和赤字三个领域每财年各有一次启动预算和解程序的机会，但是法案一般不只涉及一个领域，基本上三个领域都会覆盖，历史经验看，预算和解程序也是一个财年最多一次），今年1.9万亿美国救济计划已经使用过2021财年的「额度」，若要再次启用预算和解程序，只能等到2022财年开始。10月份是第二个关键的时间点，第一，到10月份，民主党可以再次启用「预算和解程序」。第二，从民主党议员的表态来看，他们希望能快速通过重建计划法案，比如众议院议长佩洛西希望国会快速采取行动制定变革性的基建计划。四附录：拜登重建计划细则内容","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836273024,"gmtCreate":1629504191868,"gmtModify":1676530059075,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"call+put","listText":"call+put","text":"call+put","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/836273024","repostId":"831047902","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":831047902,"gmtCreate":1629275789206,"gmtModify":1676529987850,"author":{"id":"3475881360925617","authorId":"3475881360925617","name":"老鲁随笔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d535174472de4c802c0f5dd0dd467dc2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3475881360925617","idStr":"3475881360925617"},"themes":[],"title":"爆賺36倍！美股期權Vertical Spread組合詳解","htmlText":"近期實在是有點忙不開，內容更新的有點慢，還請各位海涵，收到不少朋友的諮詢，說老魯我之前講的內容太過於專業，很多知識點消化不掉，操作上更是不敢下手，目前大部分操作還是以買call和買put爲主，短期內做對了也會有大幾百的收益率，但長期整體算下來還是虧損居多。 其實這位朋友反映的問題也是大部分新手目前的情況，這個階段老魯我也經歷過，多半是沉醉於自己的一兩次成功交易，而忘記覆盤下歷史所有交易的勝率有多少，長期下來，多數人是跑贏不了市場的，最終賺的錢還得一分不少的吐出來。 過了新手這個階段纔會認識到自己的交易知識需要提高，然後就開始拼命學習技術指標、企業財務分析、宏觀經濟、期權交易策略等等，學了一圈後發現原來交易股票和期權需要做出很多邏輯上的判斷，有了自己的觀點才能定方向；而不是像以前看到大v推薦就買，一條利好消息就全倉衝進去，結果賠個低兒掉 講了這麼多，我想表達的是：做交易，更需要學習的是交易你的觀點和邏輯，而不是跟單。如果僅僅是爲了跟單，爲何不去跟ark基金木頭姐的公開持倉呢，官網每天都會公佈每日買賣情況，而且都是行業專家選股，怎麼着也比大V更專業吧。 其實稍有點交易經驗的投資者都知道，即使給了你結果，這作業你也抄不好，沒自己的交易觀點，跌了就慌，慌了就跑，跑了就漲，根本也拿不住。 好了，又絮絮叨叨講了這麼多，我們進入正題！ 經常做期權交易的朋友會遇到這樣的情況：做期權看漲就買call，看跌就買put，太複雜了自己也看不懂，得過且過差不多就可以了，大不了虧了就跑 我接觸的投資者多數還是停留在這種認知層面上的，不能否定這種思維是錯誤的，但我的觀點是：你只需要每天學習一點，就會變得比現在更加優秀，市場幾千只股票，沒有人可以賺到認知以外的錢，如果有，那一定是運氣，如果你一直有好的運氣，也不會來看我的內容。不過我始終相信，看過我所有內容的朋友，認知都是高於其投資者的。 好，今天咱就把上","listText":"近期實在是有點忙不開，內容更新的有點慢，還請各位海涵，收到不少朋友的諮詢，說老魯我之前講的內容太過於專業，很多知識點消化不掉，操作上更是不敢下手，目前大部分操作還是以買call和買put爲主，短期內做對了也會有大幾百的收益率，但長期整體算下來還是虧損居多。 其實這位朋友反映的問題也是大部分新手目前的情況，這個階段老魯我也經歷過，多半是沉醉於自己的一兩次成功交易，而忘記覆盤下歷史所有交易的勝率有多少，長期下來，多數人是跑贏不了市場的，最終賺的錢還得一分不少的吐出來。 過了新手這個階段纔會認識到自己的交易知識需要提高，然後就開始拼命學習技術指標、企業財務分析、宏觀經濟、期權交易策略等等，學了一圈後發現原來交易股票和期權需要做出很多邏輯上的判斷，有了自己的觀點才能定方向；而不是像以前看到大v推薦就買，一條利好消息就全倉衝進去，結果賠個低兒掉 講了這麼多，我想表達的是：做交易，更需要學習的是交易你的觀點和邏輯，而不是跟單。如果僅僅是爲了跟單，爲何不去跟ark基金木頭姐的公開持倉呢，官網每天都會公佈每日買賣情況，而且都是行業專家選股，怎麼着也比大V更專業吧。 其實稍有點交易經驗的投資者都知道，即使給了你結果，這作業你也抄不好，沒自己的交易觀點，跌了就慌，慌了就跑，跑了就漲，根本也拿不住。 好了，又絮絮叨叨講了這麼多，我們進入正題！ 經常做期權交易的朋友會遇到這樣的情況：做期權看漲就買call，看跌就買put，太複雜了自己也看不懂，得過且過差不多就可以了，大不了虧了就跑 我接觸的投資者多數還是停留在這種認知層面上的，不能否定這種思維是錯誤的，但我的觀點是：你只需要每天學習一點，就會變得比現在更加優秀，市場幾千只股票，沒有人可以賺到認知以外的錢，如果有，那一定是運氣，如果你一直有好的運氣，也不會來看我的內容。不過我始終相信，看過我所有內容的朋友，認知都是高於其投資者的。 好，今天咱就把上","text":"近期實在是有點忙不開，內容更新的有點慢，還請各位海涵，收到不少朋友的諮詢，說老魯我之前講的內容太過於專業，很多知識點消化不掉，操作上更是不敢下手，目前大部分操作還是以買call和買put爲主，短期內做對了也會有大幾百的收益率，但長期整體算下來還是虧損居多。 其實這位朋友反映的問題也是大部分新手目前的情況，這個階段老魯我也經歷過，多半是沉醉於自己的一兩次成功交易，而忘記覆盤下歷史所有交易的勝率有多少，長期下來，多數人是跑贏不了市場的，最終賺的錢還得一分不少的吐出來。 過了新手這個階段纔會認識到自己的交易知識需要提高，然後就開始拼命學習技術指標、企業財務分析、宏觀經濟、期權交易策略等等，學了一圈後發現原來交易股票和期權需要做出很多邏輯上的判斷，有了自己的觀點才能定方向；而不是像以前看到大v推薦就買，一條利好消息就全倉衝進去，結果賠個低兒掉 講了這麼多，我想表達的是：做交易，更需要學習的是交易你的觀點和邏輯，而不是跟單。如果僅僅是爲了跟單，爲何不去跟ark基金木頭姐的公開持倉呢，官網每天都會公佈每日買賣情況，而且都是行業專家選股，怎麼着也比大V更專業吧。 其實稍有點交易經驗的投資者都知道，即使給了你結果，這作業你也抄不好，沒自己的交易觀點，跌了就慌，慌了就跑，跑了就漲，根本也拿不住。 好了，又絮絮叨叨講了這麼多，我們進入正題！ 經常做期權交易的朋友會遇到這樣的情況：做期權看漲就買call，看跌就買put，太複雜了自己也看不懂，得過且過差不多就可以了，大不了虧了就跑 我接觸的投資者多數還是停留在這種認知層面上的，不能否定這種思維是錯誤的，但我的觀點是：你只需要每天學習一點，就會變得比現在更加優秀，市場幾千只股票，沒有人可以賺到認知以外的錢，如果有，那一定是運氣，如果你一直有好的運氣，也不會來看我的內容。不過我始終相信，看過我所有內容的朋友，認知都是高於其投資者的。 好，今天咱就把上","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6a22078cb72fd73a48d6eb09c04e468","width":"688","height":"201"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f78371d8574e283ad99261f2145f747","width":"554","height":"54"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/126a537f9a74b8d887a69eab2333de2a","width":"688","height":"636"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831047902","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":36,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3524,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897145092,"gmtCreate":1628902403616,"gmtModify":1676529888262,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"go&nbsp;","listText":"go&nbsp;","text":"go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/897145092","repostId":"2159216292","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2159216292","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628853577,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2159216292?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-13 19:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Palantir (PLTR.US) Q2 Performance Solid, Wall Street Still Doubts Sustainability of Growth","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2159216292","media":"智通财经网","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，Palantir于周四美股盘前公布了其2021财年二季度业绩。分析师表示，Palantir此前公布的二季度营收同比增长49%，非常亮眼，且该公司预计2021-2025年营收复合年增长率将达30%。分析师指出，该公司商业部门的业绩更为强劲，二季度净增20个新客户，且营收增长加速。Wolfe Research分析师Alex Zukin维持Palantir“与大盘持平”评级，目标价由20美元上调至25美元。","content":"<p><html><body><article>Zhitong Finance APP learned that Palantir (PLTR.US) announced its second quarter results for fiscal year 2021 before the U.S. stock market opened on Thursday. The financial report shows that the company's Q2 revenue was US $376 million, a year-on-year increase of 49%; Net loss of US $139 million, compared with US $110 million in the same period last year; Basic and diluted loss per share was $0.07, compared with $0.17 in the same period last year. After the financial report was announced, many investment banks raised their target prices for the stock.</p><p>The following is an analysis of the ratings of several investment banks on the stock:</p><p><strong>Jefferies analyst Brent Thill maintained a \"buy\" rating on Palantir and raised his target price from $28 to $30.</strong>Analysts said that Palantir's previously announced second-quarter revenue growth of 49% year-on-year, which is very impressive, and the company expects the compound annual growth rate of revenue from 2021 to 2025 to reach 30%. Analysts believe the company will \"move to the next stage commercially\" and remain positive about the company's long-term opportunities and its \"unique positioning to address the most mission-critical workloads.\"</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Analyst Keith Weiss maintained an \"underweight\" rating on Palantir and raised the target price from $19 to $22.</strong>Analysts pointed out that the performance of the company's commercial division was stronger, with a net increase of 20 new customers in the second quarter and accelerating revenue growth. But analysts are skeptical about the durability of the growth, as the company's customers who make strategic investments contribute significantly to its top line.</p><p><strong>Wolfe Research analyst Alex Zukin maintained Palantir's \"market-perform\" rating and raised his target price from $20 to $25.</strong>Analysts said that the company announced a \"solid earnings report\", with total revenue in the second quarter exceeding the median expectation by 4.3%, and bookings \"equally strong\"; But given the company's valuation and the difficulties surrounding growth, he's on the fence with the stock.</p><p></article></body></html></p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir (PLTR.US) Q2 Performance Solid, Wall Street Still Doubts Sustainability of Growth</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir (PLTR.US) Q2 Performance Solid, Wall Street Still Doubts Sustainability of Growth\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-13 19:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><article>Zhitong Finance APP learned that Palantir (PLTR.US) announced its second quarter results for fiscal year 2021 before the U.S. stock market opened on Thursday. The financial report shows that the company's Q2 revenue was US $376 million, a year-on-year increase of 49%; Net loss of US $139 million, compared with US $110 million in the same period last year; Basic and diluted loss per share was $0.07, compared with $0.17 in the same period last year. After the financial report was announced, many investment banks raised their target prices for the stock.</p><p>The following is an analysis of the ratings of several investment banks on the stock:</p><p><strong>Jefferies analyst Brent Thill maintained a \"buy\" rating on Palantir and raised his target price from $28 to $30.</strong>Analysts said that Palantir's previously announced second-quarter revenue growth of 49% year-on-year, which is very impressive, and the company expects the compound annual growth rate of revenue from 2021 to 2025 to reach 30%. Analysts believe the company will \"move to the next stage commercially\" and remain positive about the company's long-term opportunities and its \"unique positioning to address the most mission-critical workloads.\"</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Analyst Keith Weiss maintained an \"underweight\" rating on Palantir and raised the target price from $19 to $22.</strong>Analysts pointed out that the performance of the company's commercial division was stronger, with a net increase of 20 new customers in the second quarter and accelerating revenue growth. But analysts are skeptical about the durability of the growth, as the company's customers who make strategic investments contribute significantly to its top line.</p><p><strong>Wolfe Research analyst Alex Zukin maintained Palantir's \"market-perform\" rating and raised his target price from $20 to $25.</strong>Analysts said that the company announced a \"solid earnings report\", with total revenue in the second quarter exceeding the median expectation by 4.3%, and bookings \"equally strong\"; But given the company's valuation and the difficulties surrounding growth, he's on the fence with the stock.</p><p></article></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202108131922067c2dd2a1&s=b\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c318bcd91a109139b7d70c76c30bb154","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202108131922067c2dd2a1&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2159216292","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，Palantir(PLTR.US)于周四美股盘前公布了其2021财年二季度业绩。财报显示，该公司Q2营收3.76亿美元，同比增长49%;净亏损1.39亿美元，上年同期为1.10亿美元;基本和摊薄每股亏损0.07美元，上年同期为0.17美元。财报公布后，不少投行上调了对该股的目标价。以下是几家投行对该股的评级分析：Jefferies分析师Brent Thill维持Palantir“买入”评级，目标价由28美元上调至30美元。分析师表示，Palantir此前公布的二季度营收同比增长49%，非常亮眼，且该公司预计2021-2025年营收复合年增长率将达30%。分析师认为，该公司将“在商业上进入下一阶段”，并仍对该公司的长期机遇和“解决最关键任务工作负载的独特定位”持积极态度。摩根士丹利分析师Keith Weiss维持Palantir“减持”评级，目标价由19美元上调至22美元。分析师指出，该公司商业部门的业绩更为强劲，二季度净增20个新客户，且营收增长加速。但分析师对增长的持久性表示怀疑，因为该公司进行战略投资的客户对其营收贡献巨大。Wolfe Research分析师Alex Zukin维持Palantir“与大盘持平”评级，目标价由20美元上调至25美元。分析师表示，该公司公布了“稳健的财报”，二季度总营收超过预期中值4.3%，且预订量“同样强劲”;但鉴于该公司的估值和围绕增长的困难，他对该股持观望态度。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344038291,"gmtCreate":1618359355413,"gmtModify":1704709572707,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"soaring bit","listText":"soaring bit","text":"soaring bit","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344038291","repostId":"2127015413","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2127015413","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618311061,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2127015413?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-13 18:51","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Coinbase Apocalypse: The American Dream of Cryptocurrency Starting with Eleven-Page PPT","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2127015413","media":"深潮TechFlow","summary":"历史一刻即将来临，Coinbase将于周三（14日）在美国纳斯达克上市（代码COIN），成为加密货币世界的里程碑。彭博社消息，Coinbase估值或高达约1000亿美元，这一数值超过纳斯达克交易所加纽","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d202e56fe292c12f1ec756eff7095093\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A moment in history is coming. Coinbase will be listed on Nasdaq (code COIN) on Wednesday (14th), becoming a milestone in the cryptocurrency world.</p><p>Bloomberg News,<b>Coinbase's valuation may be as high as about $100 billion, which exceeds the combined market capitalization of the Nasdaq exchange and the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange.</b></p><p>Coinbase, founded in 2012, does not have much legendary color of barbaric growth. If the global cryptocurrency exchange is compared to a classroom, then Coinbase is a typical \"obedient student\": there are many exchanges with average early results and larger trading volume than Coinbase, and there are countless exchanges that are more innovative than Coinbase, but Coinbase is honest and obedient, and is deeply loved by teachers.</p><p>Finally, it happened that Coinbase came to the center of the stage.</p><p><b>Start with 11 pages of PPT</b></p><p>On Christmas Day 2010, Brian Armstrong accidentally read the Bitcoin white paper, which opened the door to cryptocurrency. He bought more than 1,000 Bitcoin pieces at a price of $9. When the price of Bitcoin once fell to $2, Armstrong did not leave the market, but has been writing code to buy Bitcoin. At the same time, he was aware of the entrepreneurial opportunities. Maybe he could create a Bitcoin company himself?</p><p>Two years later in the summer, Brian co-founded Coinbase with partner Fred Ehrsam, in the form of a wallet.</p><p>The two envisioned that Coinbase would become a Bitcoin marketplace where people could buy cryptocurrencies. Subsequently, they registered Coinbase into the Y Combinator entrepreneurial incubator project. On the YC roadshow day, Brian Armstrong used an eleven-page PPT to describe Coinbase's ideals and vision.<b>\"Coinbase is to Bitcoin what iTunes is to MP3.\"</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0e0708ac639513c2410ebd1f0b1f841\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b17b9ebe53adbaca801f770d01bb7ca4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41bede434eab58fecec80fecdd6b3342\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7342cc4cdece884e5f61c86d6676cb7\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9b15b37dce81a9a98c9abebf9f3131c\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae93cc3c61acfa7f72226dcbfb089420\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/954b4809a22c5020b4c771f0e55fa799\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/531e25c0f2ef847d1a8b6120996897b2\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37fe7fed51c3899aeeb0cf77acd5b5f3\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e161463a850b34c79a7a3488583edb8\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c8e3d2c29cceb50fbf98a0680641c21\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In 2017, when Brian Armstrong reviewed these eleven pages of Pitch Deck, he was quite impressed and wrote this passage:</p><p><b>Great things all start from humble beginnings.</b></p><p>Most things you see around you start out as just a simple idea and a crude prototype. To turn it into an \"overnight success\", it takes 5 to 10 years, with dozens of setbacks and route corrections along the way.</p><p><b>So, choose one thing you're passionate about and get started.</b></p><p><b>Slow and fast compliance</b></p><p>Duan Yongping once said, \"Slow is fast\".</p><p>Coinbase is not a case of rapid rise and barbaric growth. On the contrary, although it was established earlier, its trading volume is far surpassed by its younger generations.</p><p>If you compare global cryptocurrency exchanges to a classroom, then Coinbase is a typical \"good student\":<b>Although his grades are average, he is honest and obedient, and he is deeply liked by his teachers.</b></p><p>At the crossroads of development speed and compliance, Coinbase chose compliance.</p><p>Coinbase has been investing heavily in obtaining regulatory licenses. It has Money Transmitter Licenses in 50 states in the United States. At the same time, it has become one of the few exchanges with BitLicense issued by New York State specifically for digital currency exchanges. 33 countries have obtained licenses to legally trade legal currencies and opened up payment channels.</p><p>In addition to exchange business, Coinbase has also applied for and acquired licenses on a large scale in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. Currently, Coinbase has a series of financial licenses such as payment, savings, loans, financial derivatives trading, alternative asset trading, brokerage trading and investment consulting.</p><p>Previously, according to internal employees, the number of Coinbase's compliance team was once close to 1/3 of the company, occupying a large amount of the company's resources. This also led to Coinbase's high handling fees and insufficient investment in technology, operations and user experience.</p><p>Because of compliance, Coinbase is unable to provide a large number of currency transactions, nor does it provide derivatives transactions such as contracts, resulting in it lagging far behind similar exchanges outside the United States in terms of trading volume.</p><p>In Coinbase's compliance process, former chief legal officer Brian Brooks played a pivotal role, cooperating with various regulatory agencies to take the lead in building an industry alliance-type Crypto Rating Council (CRC).</p><p>In 2020, Brian Brooks was hired to supervise<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Head of the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC).</p><p>Coinbase's business strategy of focusing on compliance has not allowed it to achieve exponential growth in transaction volume and finance in a short period of time. However, due to its compliance operation and regulatory recognition, it is far ahead of other similar companies in accessing the mainstream financial field, laying a solid foundation for its medium and long-term development in the US market.</p><p>After completing the compliance infrastructure, Coinbase, which has delayed gratification, finally ushered in the spring of harvest in 2021.</p><p>Coinbase has been \"well-received but not well-received\" for a long time. It only achieved its first profit in 2017, with a net loss of US $30 million in 2019. It was not until the bull market came in 2020 that it turned losses into profits, with a net profit of US $322 million.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2021, Coinbase's performance exploded in an all-round way, achieving revenue of US $1.8 billion, a surge of 844% over the same period last year, and net profit close to US $800 million.</p><p>All this is inseparable from Coinbase's early compliance construction.</p><p><b>Building the Future</b></p><p>The slowness and stability of Coinbase also stems from Brian Armstrong's long-term planning.<b>Exchange business is a means, not the ultimate goal and destination of Coinbase.</b></p><p>In 2016, Brian Armstrong predicted the development of blockchain in the next few years based on the historical development law of the Internet. He divided the future of his blockchain world into four main stages, and based on what Coinbase can do in each stage, formulated a blueprint for Coinbase's development in the next ten years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8b4e8f8597b30239154d9904b4ec5b9\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"173\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Phase I (Agreement Phase): Development Agreement (serving 1 million people)</b></p><p>At this stage, new protocols (Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc) are created and people start improving them.</p><p>The open source community will develop around each protocol, and in some cases, these protocols will be sponsored and helped by enterprises. The race for protocols has begun, and it remains to be seen which protocol can be expanded and attract application developers.</p><p>Coinbase will not participate in this stage of development, but will only keep close cooperation with some excellent players.</p><p><b>Phase 2 (infrastructure): Establish a digital currency exchange (serving 10 million people)</b></p><p>In Brain Armstrong's view, investment or speculation is an indispensable initialization acceleration mechanism for the establishment of the future blockchain payment network, so the exchange business is indispensable.</p><p>Initially, Coinbase was just a wallet. Later, the GDAX exchange was established for institutional and professional investors, which is now Coinbase Pro. This constitutes Coinbase's core business. Coinbase will use the revenue from this stage to invest in the next stage of the plan, while continuing to expand these businesses to more countries.</p><p><b>The third stage (user portal): Establish a portal for digital currency applications (serving 100 million people)</b></p><p>When consumers start using blockchain applications (dApps), what they need is a simple user interface and portal. The portal in the Internet world is HTML and Web browser, which is built on the TCP/IP protocol.</p><p>In the blockchain world, Coinbase believes that it will be an undeveloped WEB browser similar product, and its bottom layer may be a wallet completely controlled by users.</p><p>This will lower the threshold for ordinary people to use it and reduce the difficulty of developing blockchain applications.</p><p>Coinbase will participate in this phase by building or investing in related teams.</p><p><b>The fourth stage (decentralized application): create an open financial system application (serving 1 billion people)</b></p><p>Brian Armstrong believes that the existing traditional financial system will be rebuilt into an open network that can be accessed by users all over the world. The applications needed in the future include:</p><p>Loans (mortgage loans, small business loans, micro-loans, etc.) Venture capital (seed investment, traditional VC, venture debt, etc.) Investment (stocks, index funds, savings accounts, etc.) Identity and reputation (ID card, identity authentication, credit score, etc.) Remittance (cross-border remittance) Merchant processing (retail, online orders) Coinbase will participate in this stage by building teams, acquiring and investing in various companies, and Coinbase will also establish developer tools and cooperate with regulators to draft regulatory schemes suitable for this industry.</p><p>To sum up, in Brian Armstrong's plan, the exchange is only the first step in building an ecosystem, and the money earned by the exchange will continue to be used to participate in the next stage of infrastructure construction and investment, so as to finally become an open financial system for one billion people. occupy a place in the system.</p><p>In 2016, Brian Armstrong thought they were at the end of Phase 2, but still in the early stages of blockchain.</p><p>Since then, Coinbase has firmly implemented this plan, upgraded the Gdax transaction to Coinbase Pro, focused on institutional users, and continued to broaden its boundaries through acquisitions:</p><p>Developed the wallet application Toshi, which was later renamed Coinbase Wallet; Acquisition of Ethereum dApp browser and wallet Cipher Browse; Acquisition of Ethereum P2P trading platform Paradex; Acquisition of Xapo's hosting business; Acquisition of Tagomi, a prime broker platform for digital asset trading; Acquisition of crypto trading infrastructure provider Routefire; Acquisition of blockchain infrastructure provider Bison Trails; Acquisition of cryptocurrency mission site Earn.com … Acquisition of three licensed financial services companies, securities dealers Keystone Capital, Venovate Marketlpace and Digital Wealth LLC.... Listing is not the end and purpose of Coinbase. Everything Coinbase has done so far is still preparing for the fourth stage, building an open financial system for the Coinbase ecosystem.</p><p><b>The \"American Dream\" of Cryptocurrencies</b></p><p>Coinbase's success is hard to replicate.</p><p>Lei Jun often said that pigs can fly when standing on the wind. There are many pigs flying on the wind of cryptocurrency, but there is only one Coinbase, because it is in the United States. Why don't China, Japan, and South Korea have no \"Coinbase\"?</p><p><b>The United States still holds currency hegemony, is the center of the global capital market, and has gradually gained the pricing power of Bitcoin.</b></p><p>In terms of supervision, China, the United States, and Japan have different regulatory ideas.</p><p>After the 1994 Movement, \"heavy chain currency suppression\" became the main theme of China's blockchain world.</p><p>China defines blockchain as a<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/III\">Information services</a>Technology, the main body of supervision is the Central Cyberspace Administration of China, while the financial risks that blockchain and cryptocurrency may bring are supervised by the People's Bank of China.</p><p>The regulatory agencies in the United States mainly include the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).</p><p>For token issuance and exchanges, the United States does not adopt a one-size-fits-all approach. Instead, it incorporates practical tokens and securities tokens into the corresponding regulatory system respectively. The issuance of securities tokens needs to be registered in accordance with the securities law, and the exchange operation needs to obtain a license.</p><p>At the same time, the US SEC frequently moves to crack down on all kinds of illegal ICOs.</p><p>Although Japan is one of the few countries in the world that provides legal protection for digital assets, the establishment and operation of cryptocurrency exchanges can be completely legal and compliant. However, due to strict supervision,<b>Japanese exchanges do not have the right to list currencies, which makes it more difficult to raise funds and trade local projects, and hinders the development of innovative projects to a certain extent.</b></p><p>Today's Coinbase has, to a certain extent, become a sample under the balance of cryptocurrency regulation in the United States.</p><p>Secondly, the United States, as the world's largest economy, provides a broad space for Coinbase. When Wall Street embraces Bitcoin, Coinbase has also become the \"Bitcoin steward\" of institutions because of its compliance advantages. According to Bituniverse data on April 13, The Coinbase platform currently has 870,000 Bitcoin, far exceeding Binance (215,100) and Huobi (252,300).</p><p><b>Behind the rise of Coinbase is the decline of Bitcoin's pricing power in the eastern world, and the western world centered on the United States has gained more chips and voice.</b></p><p>Whether it is business focus or moat, Coinbase is inseparable from the US regulatory agencies and the US market behind it.<b>Coinbase is not the ideal story of decentralization, but more of the \"American Dream\" of cryptocurrency.</b></p>","source":"lsy1592805329705","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Coinbase Apocalypse: The American Dream of Cryptocurrency Starting with Eleven-Page PPT</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoinbase Apocalypse: The American Dream of Cryptocurrency Starting with Eleven-Page PPT\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">深潮TechFlow</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-13 18:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d202e56fe292c12f1ec756eff7095093\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A moment in history is coming. Coinbase will be listed on Nasdaq (code COIN) on Wednesday (14th), becoming a milestone in the cryptocurrency world.</p><p>Bloomberg News,<b>Coinbase's valuation may be as high as about $100 billion, which exceeds the combined market capitalization of the Nasdaq exchange and the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange.</b></p><p>Coinbase, founded in 2012, does not have much legendary color of barbaric growth. If the global cryptocurrency exchange is compared to a classroom, then Coinbase is a typical \"obedient student\": there are many exchanges with average early results and larger trading volume than Coinbase, and there are countless exchanges that are more innovative than Coinbase, but Coinbase is honest and obedient, and is deeply loved by teachers.</p><p>Finally, it happened that Coinbase came to the center of the stage.</p><p><b>Start with 11 pages of PPT</b></p><p>On Christmas Day 2010, Brian Armstrong accidentally read the Bitcoin white paper, which opened the door to cryptocurrency. He bought more than 1,000 Bitcoin pieces at a price of $9. When the price of Bitcoin once fell to $2, Armstrong did not leave the market, but has been writing code to buy Bitcoin. At the same time, he was aware of the entrepreneurial opportunities. Maybe he could create a Bitcoin company himself?</p><p>Two years later in the summer, Brian co-founded Coinbase with partner Fred Ehrsam, in the form of a wallet.</p><p>The two envisioned that Coinbase would become a Bitcoin marketplace where people could buy cryptocurrencies. Subsequently, they registered Coinbase into the Y Combinator entrepreneurial incubator project. On the YC roadshow day, Brian Armstrong used an eleven-page PPT to describe Coinbase's ideals and vision.<b>\"Coinbase is to Bitcoin what iTunes is to MP3.\"</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0e0708ac639513c2410ebd1f0b1f841\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b17b9ebe53adbaca801f770d01bb7ca4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41bede434eab58fecec80fecdd6b3342\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7342cc4cdece884e5f61c86d6676cb7\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9b15b37dce81a9a98c9abebf9f3131c\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae93cc3c61acfa7f72226dcbfb089420\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/954b4809a22c5020b4c771f0e55fa799\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/531e25c0f2ef847d1a8b6120996897b2\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37fe7fed51c3899aeeb0cf77acd5b5f3\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e161463a850b34c79a7a3488583edb8\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c8e3d2c29cceb50fbf98a0680641c21\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In 2017, when Brian Armstrong reviewed these eleven pages of Pitch Deck, he was quite impressed and wrote this passage:</p><p><b>Great things all start from humble beginnings.</b></p><p>Most things you see around you start out as just a simple idea and a crude prototype. To turn it into an \"overnight success\", it takes 5 to 10 years, with dozens of setbacks and route corrections along the way.</p><p><b>So, choose one thing you're passionate about and get started.</b></p><p><b>Slow and fast compliance</b></p><p>Duan Yongping once said, \"Slow is fast\".</p><p>Coinbase is not a case of rapid rise and barbaric growth. On the contrary, although it was established earlier, its trading volume is far surpassed by its younger generations.</p><p>If you compare global cryptocurrency exchanges to a classroom, then Coinbase is a typical \"good student\":<b>Although his grades are average, he is honest and obedient, and he is deeply liked by his teachers.</b></p><p>At the crossroads of development speed and compliance, Coinbase chose compliance.</p><p>Coinbase has been investing heavily in obtaining regulatory licenses. It has Money Transmitter Licenses in 50 states in the United States. At the same time, it has become one of the few exchanges with BitLicense issued by New York State specifically for digital currency exchanges. 33 countries have obtained licenses to legally trade legal currencies and opened up payment channels.</p><p>In addition to exchange business, Coinbase has also applied for and acquired licenses on a large scale in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. Currently, Coinbase has a series of financial licenses such as payment, savings, loans, financial derivatives trading, alternative asset trading, brokerage trading and investment consulting.</p><p>Previously, according to internal employees, the number of Coinbase's compliance team was once close to 1/3 of the company, occupying a large amount of the company's resources. This also led to Coinbase's high handling fees and insufficient investment in technology, operations and user experience.</p><p>Because of compliance, Coinbase is unable to provide a large number of currency transactions, nor does it provide derivatives transactions such as contracts, resulting in it lagging far behind similar exchanges outside the United States in terms of trading volume.</p><p>In Coinbase's compliance process, former chief legal officer Brian Brooks played a pivotal role, cooperating with various regulatory agencies to take the lead in building an industry alliance-type Crypto Rating Council (CRC).</p><p>In 2020, Brian Brooks was hired to supervise<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Head of the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC).</p><p>Coinbase's business strategy of focusing on compliance has not allowed it to achieve exponential growth in transaction volume and finance in a short period of time. However, due to its compliance operation and regulatory recognition, it is far ahead of other similar companies in accessing the mainstream financial field, laying a solid foundation for its medium and long-term development in the US market.</p><p>After completing the compliance infrastructure, Coinbase, which has delayed gratification, finally ushered in the spring of harvest in 2021.</p><p>Coinbase has been \"well-received but not well-received\" for a long time. It only achieved its first profit in 2017, with a net loss of US $30 million in 2019. It was not until the bull market came in 2020 that it turned losses into profits, with a net profit of US $322 million.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2021, Coinbase's performance exploded in an all-round way, achieving revenue of US $1.8 billion, a surge of 844% over the same period last year, and net profit close to US $800 million.</p><p>All this is inseparable from Coinbase's early compliance construction.</p><p><b>Building the Future</b></p><p>The slowness and stability of Coinbase also stems from Brian Armstrong's long-term planning.<b>Exchange business is a means, not the ultimate goal and destination of Coinbase.</b></p><p>In 2016, Brian Armstrong predicted the development of blockchain in the next few years based on the historical development law of the Internet. He divided the future of his blockchain world into four main stages, and based on what Coinbase can do in each stage, formulated a blueprint for Coinbase's development in the next ten years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8b4e8f8597b30239154d9904b4ec5b9\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"173\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Phase I (Agreement Phase): Development Agreement (serving 1 million people)</b></p><p>At this stage, new protocols (Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc) are created and people start improving them.</p><p>The open source community will develop around each protocol, and in some cases, these protocols will be sponsored and helped by enterprises. The race for protocols has begun, and it remains to be seen which protocol can be expanded and attract application developers.</p><p>Coinbase will not participate in this stage of development, but will only keep close cooperation with some excellent players.</p><p><b>Phase 2 (infrastructure): Establish a digital currency exchange (serving 10 million people)</b></p><p>In Brain Armstrong's view, investment or speculation is an indispensable initialization acceleration mechanism for the establishment of the future blockchain payment network, so the exchange business is indispensable.</p><p>Initially, Coinbase was just a wallet. Later, the GDAX exchange was established for institutional and professional investors, which is now Coinbase Pro. This constitutes Coinbase's core business. Coinbase will use the revenue from this stage to invest in the next stage of the plan, while continuing to expand these businesses to more countries.</p><p><b>The third stage (user portal): Establish a portal for digital currency applications (serving 100 million people)</b></p><p>When consumers start using blockchain applications (dApps), what they need is a simple user interface and portal. The portal in the Internet world is HTML and Web browser, which is built on the TCP/IP protocol.</p><p>In the blockchain world, Coinbase believes that it will be an undeveloped WEB browser similar product, and its bottom layer may be a wallet completely controlled by users.</p><p>This will lower the threshold for ordinary people to use it and reduce the difficulty of developing blockchain applications.</p><p>Coinbase will participate in this phase by building or investing in related teams.</p><p><b>The fourth stage (decentralized application): create an open financial system application (serving 1 billion people)</b></p><p>Brian Armstrong believes that the existing traditional financial system will be rebuilt into an open network that can be accessed by users all over the world. The applications needed in the future include:</p><p>Loans (mortgage loans, small business loans, micro-loans, etc.) Venture capital (seed investment, traditional VC, venture debt, etc.) Investment (stocks, index funds, savings accounts, etc.) Identity and reputation (ID card, identity authentication, credit score, etc.) Remittance (cross-border remittance) Merchant processing (retail, online orders) Coinbase will participate in this stage by building teams, acquiring and investing in various companies, and Coinbase will also establish developer tools and cooperate with regulators to draft regulatory schemes suitable for this industry.</p><p>To sum up, in Brian Armstrong's plan, the exchange is only the first step in building an ecosystem, and the money earned by the exchange will continue to be used to participate in the next stage of infrastructure construction and investment, so as to finally become an open financial system for one billion people. occupy a place in the system.</p><p>In 2016, Brian Armstrong thought they were at the end of Phase 2, but still in the early stages of blockchain.</p><p>Since then, Coinbase has firmly implemented this plan, upgraded the Gdax transaction to Coinbase Pro, focused on institutional users, and continued to broaden its boundaries through acquisitions:</p><p>Developed the wallet application Toshi, which was later renamed Coinbase Wallet; Acquisition of Ethereum dApp browser and wallet Cipher Browse; Acquisition of Ethereum P2P trading platform Paradex; Acquisition of Xapo's hosting business; Acquisition of Tagomi, a prime broker platform for digital asset trading; Acquisition of crypto trading infrastructure provider Routefire; Acquisition of blockchain infrastructure provider Bison Trails; Acquisition of cryptocurrency mission site Earn.com … Acquisition of three licensed financial services companies, securities dealers Keystone Capital, Venovate Marketlpace and Digital Wealth LLC.... Listing is not the end and purpose of Coinbase. Everything Coinbase has done so far is still preparing for the fourth stage, building an open financial system for the Coinbase ecosystem.</p><p><b>The \"American Dream\" of Cryptocurrencies</b></p><p>Coinbase's success is hard to replicate.</p><p>Lei Jun often said that pigs can fly when standing on the wind. There are many pigs flying on the wind of cryptocurrency, but there is only one Coinbase, because it is in the United States. Why don't China, Japan, and South Korea have no \"Coinbase\"?</p><p><b>The United States still holds currency hegemony, is the center of the global capital market, and has gradually gained the pricing power of Bitcoin.</b></p><p>In terms of supervision, China, the United States, and Japan have different regulatory ideas.</p><p>After the 1994 Movement, \"heavy chain currency suppression\" became the main theme of China's blockchain world.</p><p>China defines blockchain as a<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/III\">Information services</a>Technology, the main body of supervision is the Central Cyberspace Administration of China, while the financial risks that blockchain and cryptocurrency may bring are supervised by the People's Bank of China.</p><p>The regulatory agencies in the United States mainly include the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).</p><p>For token issuance and exchanges, the United States does not adopt a one-size-fits-all approach. Instead, it incorporates practical tokens and securities tokens into the corresponding regulatory system respectively. The issuance of securities tokens needs to be registered in accordance with the securities law, and the exchange operation needs to obtain a license.</p><p>At the same time, the US SEC frequently moves to crack down on all kinds of illegal ICOs.</p><p>Although Japan is one of the few countries in the world that provides legal protection for digital assets, the establishment and operation of cryptocurrency exchanges can be completely legal and compliant. However, due to strict supervision,<b>Japanese exchanges do not have the right to list currencies, which makes it more difficult to raise funds and trade local projects, and hinders the development of innovative projects to a certain extent.</b></p><p>Today's Coinbase has, to a certain extent, become a sample under the balance of cryptocurrency regulation in the United States.</p><p>Secondly, the United States, as the world's largest economy, provides a broad space for Coinbase. When Wall Street embraces Bitcoin, Coinbase has also become the \"Bitcoin steward\" of institutions because of its compliance advantages. According to Bituniverse data on April 13, The Coinbase platform currently has 870,000 Bitcoin, far exceeding Binance (215,100) and Huobi (252,300).</p><p><b>Behind the rise of Coinbase is the decline of Bitcoin's pricing power in the eastern world, and the western world centered on the United States has gained more chips and voice.</b></p><p>Whether it is business focus or moat, Coinbase is inseparable from the US regulatory agencies and the US market behind it.<b>Coinbase is not the ideal story of decentralization, but more of the \"American Dream\" of cryptocurrency.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vx_QxhcTbgRnlQEfm16yzA\">深潮TechFlow</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d202e56fe292c12f1ec756eff7095093","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vx_QxhcTbgRnlQEfm16yzA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2127015413","content_text":"历史一刻即将来临，Coinbase将于周三（14日）在美国纳斯达克上市（代码COIN），成为加密货币世界的里程碑。彭博社消息，Coinbase估值或高达约1000亿美元，这一数值超过纳斯达克交易所加纽约证券交易所母公司的市值总和。成立于2012年的Coinbase并没有太多野蛮生长的传奇色彩，如果把全球加密货币交易所比作一间教室，那么Coinbase就是典型的“听话学生”：前期成绩一般，比Coinbase交易量大的交易所很多，比Coinbase创新的交易所不胜枚举，但Coinbase老实听话，深受老师的喜欢。最后，偏偏是Coinbase来到了舞台中央。从11页PPT开始2010年圣诞节，Brian Armstrong偶然间阅读了比特币白皮书，从此打开了加密货币的大门，他以9美元的价格购买了1000多枚比特币，在比特币价格一度跌到2美元的时候，Armstrong并没有离场，而是一直靠编写代码来购买比特币，与此同时，他觉察到了其中的创业机会，也许自己可以创建一个比特币公司？2年后的夏天，Brian与与合作伙伴Fred Ehrsam共同创建了Coinbase，以钱包的形式。两人设想，Coinbase将成为一个比特币市场，人们可以在这里购买加密货币。随后，他们将Coinbase登记入了Y Combinator创业孵化器项目，在 YC 路演日上，Brian Armstrong用了十一页PPT描绘 Coinbase 理想与愿景，“Coinbase之于比特币，就好比 iTunes之于MP3 。”2017年，当Brian Armstrong回顾这十一页Pitch Deck时，颇有感想，写下了这段话：伟大的事物都是从卑微的起点开始的。你身边看到的大多数东西，一开始不过是一个简单的想法和一个粗糙的原型，要把它变成 \"一夜成功\"，需要5到10年的时间，一路上要经历几十次挫折和路线修正。所以，选择一件你热衷的事情，开始吧。合规的慢与快段永平曾言，“慢就是快”。Coinbase并不是快速崛起，野蛮生长的案例，相反，尽管它成立较早，但是交易量远被它的后辈们超越。如果把全球加密货币交易所比作一间教室，那么Coinbase就是典型的“好学生”：尽管成绩一般，但是老实听话，深受老师的喜欢。在发展速度与合规的十字路口，Coinbase选择了合规。Coinbase一直在获得监管牌照方面不惜投入重金，拥有美国50个州的转账交易牌照（Money Transmitter License），同时成为为数不多的、拥有纽约州专门为数字货币交易所颁发的BitLicense的交易所，在33个国家取得合法交易法币的许可并打通支付渠道。除了交易所业务，Coinbase在产业链上下游也大规模申请和收购牌照， 目前Coinbase拥有支付、储蓄、贷款、金融衍生品交易、另类资产交易、券商交易和投资顾问等一系列金融牌照。此前据内部员工透露，Coinbase合规团队人数一度接近公司的1/3，占据公司大量资源，这也导致Coinbase手续费高昂，在技术、运营和用户体验上投入不足。因为合规，Coinbase无法提供大量币种交易，也没有提供合约这样的衍生品交易，导致其在交易量方面远远落后于美国境外的同类交易所。在Coinbase的合规进程中，前任首席法务官Brian Brooks发挥了举足轻重的作用，配合各个监管机构，牵头建设了行业联盟性质的加密数字货币评级委员会（Crypto Rating Council，CRC）。2020年，Brian Brooks被聘请担任为监管美国银行业的美国货币监理局（OCC）负责人。Coinbase专注合规的经营战略并没有让它在短期内实现交易量以及财务方面的指数级增长，但是由于它的合规经营，并且受到监管的认可，它在接入主流金融领域方面遥遥领先于其它同类公司，奠定了它在美国市场中长期发展的坚实基础。在完成合规的基础建设之后，延迟满足的Coinbase终于在2021年迎来收获的春天。Coinbase长期“叫好不叫座”，2017年才实现首次盈利，2019年净亏损3000万美元，直到2020年牛市来临，扭亏为盈，净利润3.22亿美元。2021一季度，Coinbase业绩全面爆发，实现营收18亿美元，较去年同期暴增844%，净利润接近8亿美元。这一切都离不开Coinbase早期的合规建设。建设未来Coinbase的慢与稳，也源于Brian Armstrong的长期规划，交易所业务是手段，而不是Coinbase的最终目的与归宿。2016年，Brian Armstrong 根据互联网的历史发展规律，预测了区块链未来几年的发展，他将其区块链世界未来划分为四个主要的阶段，并根据每个阶段 Coinbase能做的事情，制定了 Coinbase未来十年的发展蓝图。第一阶段（协议阶段）：开发协议（服务100万人）在这个阶段，新的协议（比特币、以太坊等）被创造了出来，人们开始改进这些协议。开源社区会围绕着每一个协议进行开发，在某些情况下，这些协议会得到企业的赞助和帮助。协议的竞赛已开始上演，究竟哪个协议可以得到扩展，并吸引应用开发者，仍有待于观察。Coinbase 不会参与这个阶段的开发，只会和一些优秀的玩家保持紧密合作。第二阶段（基础设施）：建立数字货币交易所（服务1000万人）在Brain Armstrong看来，投资或者说投机对于未来区块链的支付网络建立是不可或缺的初始化加速机制，因此交易所业务不可或缺。最初，Coinbase只是钱包，后来为机构和职业投资者建立了GDAX交易所，也就是如今的Coinbase Pro，这构成了Coinbase的核心业务，Coinbase 将用这阶段的收入来投资下一阶段计划，同时继续将这些业务扩展到更多的国家。第三阶段（用户入口）：为数字货币应用建立入口（服务1亿人）消费者在开始使用区块链应用（dApp）时，他们需要的是一个简单的用户界面和入口，互联网世界里的入口是HTML与Web浏览器，这是建立在TCP/IP协议之上。在区块链世界里，Coinbase 认为它会是尚未开发出来的WEB浏览器同类产品，其底层可能是一个完全由用户控制的钱包。这将降低普通人使用它的门槛，并且降低区块链应用的开发难度。Coinbase 将通过建立或投资相关的团队来参与这一阶段。第四阶段（去中心化应用）：打造一个开放式金融系统应用（服务10亿人）Brian Armstrong 认为现有的传统金融系统将被重建为一个开放式的网络，可供全球用户访问，未来需要的应用包括：贷款（抵押贷款、小企业贷款、小额贷款等）风险投资（种子投资、传统VC，风险债务等）投资（股票、指数型基金、储蓄账户等）身份与声誉（身份证、身份认证、信用评分等）汇款（跨境汇款）商户处理（零售、网络订单）Coinbase会通过建立团队、收购和投资各种公司的方式来参与这一阶段，并且Coinbase 也将建立开发者工具，并与监管机构合作来起草适合这一行业的监管方案。总结起来，在Brian Armstrong的规划中，交易所只是构建生态的第一步，并持续利用交易所赚的钱去参与下一个阶段的基础设施建设与投资，从而最终在面向十亿人的开放金融系统中占据一席之地。2016年，Brian Armstrong认为他们处于第二阶段的末尾期，但仍处于区块链的早期阶段。此后，Coinbase 坚定地执行了这个计划，把Gdax交易升级成Coinbase Pro，发力机构用户，并持续通过收购，拓宽自己的边界：开发了钱包应用 Toshi，后来改名为 Coinbase Wallet；收购以太坊dApp浏览器和钱包Cipher Browse；收购以太坊P2P交易平台Paradex；收购Xapo的托管业务；收购数字资产交易主经纪商平台Tagomi；收购加密交易基础设施提供商Routefire；收购区块链基础设施提供商Bison Trails；收购加密货币任务网站Earn.com……收购三家持牌金融服务公司，证券交易商 Keystone Capital，Venovate Marketlpace 和 Digital Wealth LLC 。……上市也不是Coinbase的终点和目的，目前Coinbase所做的一切，仍然在为第四个阶段，构建Coinbase生态的开放金融系统做准备。加密货币的“美国梦”Coinbase的成功难以复制。雷军常说，站在风口上，猪都能飞起来，站在加密货币的风口上飞起来的猪有很多，但Coinbase只有一个，因为它在美国，为什么中国、日本、韩国没有“Coinbase”？美国依然掌握了货币霸权，是全球资本市场的中心，并且逐渐得到了比特币的定价权。监管上，中国、美国、日本的监管思路不同。九四之后，“重链抑币”成为中国区块链世界的主旋律。中国将区块链定义为一种信息服务技术，监管主体是中央网信办，而对于区块链以及加密货币可能带来的金融风险，则由中国人民银行进行监管。美国的监管机构主要包括美国证券交易委员会 (SEC)、商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）。对于代币发行和交易所，美国并没有采用一刀切的方式，而是将实用型通证和证券性通证分别纳入相应监管体系，证券属性代币的发行需要依照证券法登记注册，交易所经营则需要获得牌照。与此同时，美国SEC频繁出手，打击各类非法ICO。尽管日本是全球为数不多为数字资产提供法律保障的国家之一，加密货币交易所的设立运营也完全可以合法合规，然而由于监管严苛，日本交易所没有上币权，从而导致本土项目募资和交易的难度变大，一定程度上阻碍了创新项目的发展。如今的Coinbase，一定程度上成为了美国加密货币监管平衡术下的样本。其次，美国作为全球最大的经济体，为Coinbase提供了广阔的空间，当华尔街拥抱比特币，Coinbase也因为其合规优势成为了机构们的“比特币大管家”，据Bituniverse 4月13日数据，目前Coinbase平台拥有87万枚比特币，远超币安（21.51万）和火币（25.23万）。Coinbase的崛起，背后是东方世界比特币定价权的衰落，以美国为中心的西方世界获得更多筹码以及话语权。无论是业务重心还是护城河，Coinbase都离不开身后的美国监管机构以及美国市场，Coinbase并不是去中心化的理想故事，更多是加密货币的“美国梦”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"COIN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2548,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}