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2021-06-16

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Some WSB concept stocks fell, and AMC cinemas fell more than 10%

2021-06-08

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The U.S. Food and Drug Administration recently approved Alzheimer's drugs for the first time in about 20 years

2021-06-05

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Will the next Tesla come from China?

2021-07-21

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[Change] The lithium battery sector in the US stock market strengthened, Livent rose more than 7%

2021-06-14

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Is the Fed going to turn against it? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Waiting Seriously

2021-06-18

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2021-06-13

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2021-08-09

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2021-07-31

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2021-07-28

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20:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The three new energy giants have become undecently rolled","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108257936","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"继小鹏汽车之后，理想汽车也回来了。\n7月26日，港交所文件显示，理想汽车通过港交所上市聆讯，将寻求作为具有不同投票权架构的发行人申请双重主要上市。\n虽然是国内三大造车新势力之一，但相比另外两个，理想汽","content":"<p>Follow<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>After that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Back, too.</p><p>On July 26, Hong Kong Stock Exchange documents showed that Li Auto will seek to apply for dual primary listing as an issuer with different voting rights structure through the Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing hearing.</p><p>Although it is one of the three major new car-making forces in China, compared with the other two, Li Auto seems to be much lower-key, and many operating indicators have no obvious advantages. Can this landing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange become a new starting point for Li Auto, and complete the counterattack in the future competition?</p><p><b>1、</b><b>Business data, not ideal?</b></p><p>From the product point of view, Li Auto only has one six-seater medium-to-large<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">Luxurious</a>Electric SUV--Ideal ONE; In terms of sales volume, in 2020, Ideal sold 32,624 vehicles, ranking among the middle of the year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">National New Energy</a>Car sales ranked sixth, accounting for 2.8% of the market share, and ranked third among automakers that only produce new energy vehicles. As of June 30, 2021, Ideal has delivered a total of more than 63,000 Ideal ONEs.</p><p>Looking at competitors,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>, XPeng has mass-produced more than two automobile products, including SUVs and cars.<b>In 2020, Nio's sales will reach 43,728 vehicles, which is higher than the ideal, while XPeng's sales will reach 27,006 vehicles, which is relatively low.</b>But the difference is that the competitors are all pure electric models, and the ideal extended-range technology route is somewhat touched by the convenience of fuel vehicles.</p><p>In terms of financial data, Ideal is still at a loss. From 2019 to 2020, Li Auto's total revenue was approximately 284 million yuan and 9.457 billion yuan respectively, and the net losses attributable to ordinary shareholders were 3.282 billion yuan and 792 million yuan respectively. The losses have narrowed, while the gross profit has turned positive.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/129a0d88612f98087ba073834f0e32dc\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, the total revenue in the first three months of 2021 was 3.575 billion yuan, and the net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders was 360 million yuan, an increase of 3.67 times compared with the same period last year.<b>The reason is that R&D expenses and marketing expenses are growing rapidly.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b96932b218d0b2a17d8eb1be2744d78f\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>To plan for the future, research and development expenses must be maintained, and marketing expenses are difficult to reduce due to the need to seize the market. In other words, it is difficult for both expenses to be reduced in the short term, so it is still very likely that this year's net loss will exceed last year's.</b></p><p>It is difficult to judge when the net profit will turn positive, but this is also a common problem for new domestic forces. If you apply<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>What we have experienced, in the year when the net profit turned positive, the total sales volume was 500,000 vehicles, so the profitability of new domestic forces is still far away. Of course, there is still a big difference between \"Wei Xiaoli\" and Tesla, and forced comparison doesn't make much sense. I just want to explain that there is still a long way to go to truly achieve profitability.</p><p>However, fortunately, the ideal monthly sales volume continues to grow. In June, it also won the domestic medium and large SUV sales championship, surpassing Nio vehicles in total sales, which is a good development trend.</p><p>The continued strength of sales depends on Li Auto's layout of sales channels. As of June 30, 2021, it had 97 retail stores in major cities in China, and on July 10, 2021, it opened its 100th retail store. Like Tesla, Ideal locates retail stores in shopping malls that target users may visit, rather than central business districts or landmark buildings.</p><p>The number of stores of competitor XPeng, including 88 directly-operated stores and 90 franchised stores, totals 178, which is 1.8 times that of Ideal. However, in the first half of this year, the sales volume of Ideal and XPeng was about 30,000 vehicles, which also shows that Ideal has an advantage in terms of single-store sales efficiency.</p><p>To sum up the above operating indicators and financial data, we only see a relatively good trend of change, and it is difficult to apply conventional value models to quantify investment value.</p><p>However, Li Auto is on a track of rapid development, sufficient growth dividends, and all developed countries are competing for it, so it must be viewed from a deeper perspective.</p><p><b>2、</b><b>Technical route, solve near-optimal</b></p><p>In the choice of major strategic direction, Li Auto is not too idealistic, but very realistic.</p><p>At that time, when Tesla decided to make an electric car, it started with a luxurious sports car. What he took a fancy to was the technology tycoons in Silicon Valley, who were rich and willing to try new technologies, and at the same time contributed to environmental protection. The feelings of saving the world.</p><p>Behind this, it is actually based on the overall consideration of business. The technology of electric vehicles is not yet mature, and the mass production is limited, so the price must be very expensive. If you rush to knock on the door of the grassroots market from the beginning, the result is likely to be rejected, and it is easy to be jointly encircled and suppressed by fuel vehicle manufacturers, and even stillborn.</p><p>Therefore, it is a safe approach to start from a relatively differentiated market, and later facts also proved the success of Tesla's strategy.</p><p>The same is true for Li Auto. After sorting out its various strategic thinking contexts, two points are very clear.</p><p>First,<b>Starting with medium and large SUV models, like Nio, they are interested in market acceptance and price advantage.</b>In the past ten years, SUVs have been sought after by consumers for their strong power and spacious space, and the rising consumption power of Chinese people has supported this SUV boom. Therefore, choosing SUV models to enter the market can well share costs, eliminate the price gap with similar fuel vehicles, and make it easier for consumers to accept new energy vehicles.</p><p>And second,<b>Technical route of extended range.</b>This is also the most controversial place in Li Auto. Why did Ideal choose this route?</p><p>Let's take a look at the following pictures first.</p><p>Comparing the three technical routes, you will find that the extended-range technical route is actually a trick between plug-in hybrid power and HEV hybrid power.</p><p>It can be refueled and charged like a plug-in hybrid, and it also has the whole process of driving the motor to provide power through the fuel engine to generate electricity, reserve and discharge, but it does not have the function of the fuel engine directly driving the wheels.</p><p>It can also be powered by just refueling like an HEV hybrid, and then the fuel vehicle engine generates electricity, but it also does not have the function of the fuel engine directly driving the wheels.</p><p>Anyone who has driven a fuel vehicle knows that the engine is very noisy when rotating, and the fuel conversion efficiency is not high. Even the best technology can hardly exceed 50%. This is the thermal efficiency problem that fuel vehicles are often criticized. But electric vehicles are different. The noise of motor rotation is much lower than that of fuel engines, and the power conversion efficiency is also higher, often reaching 80-90%.</p><p>Therefore, the advantage of the extended range is that it not only makes full use of the advantage of the motor instead of the fuel engine as the power source, but also retains the benefit of \"being able to refuel\", which solves the range anxiety of pure electric vehicles, too long charging time, and too few charging piles.</p><p><b>In other words, the convenience of using fuel vehicles brings out the superiority of electric vehicles.</b></p><p>The new energy vehicle industry is very expensive. Li Bin, the boss of Nio, once famously said:<b>\"If you don't have 20 billion, don't make an electric car.\"</b></p><p>Ask realistically, how many start-up car companies can get 20 billion as soon as they sell?</p><p>Nio himself almost died because of lack of money, so he was qualified to talk about \"ideals\" only if he could survive smoothly. The financing data disclosed by Li Auto before its listing was 14.6 billion. If you blindly burn money into it, it is likely that the car will not even come out, and the company will already hang up.</p><p>Don't blindly blow the cannon, start from the most pragmatic route, the goal is to survive, and then plan the overall situation of the future. This is the starting point and final destination of ideal strategic thinking.</p><p><b>3、</b><b>Ideal foresight, can it be solved?</b></p><p>Like many technology-intensive industries, the choice of technical routes is very important for new energy vehicle companies.</p><p>From the perspective of short-term survival, there is nothing wrong with the ideal choice of the extended-range technology route, and facts have proved its correctness. In terms of annual sales, it is second only to Tesla and Nio, and its gross profit margin and net profit margin are also significantly ahead of Nio and XPeng.</p><p>But people have no near worries, but they must have far-sighted worries.</p><p>For Li Auto, this long-term consideration is the pure electric technology route.</p><p>From the long-term development trend of new energy vehicles, pure electricity is inevitable. It can better solve human dependence on oil and provide support for more intelligent applications. Although the problems of range anxiety and charging convenience have not yet been solved. It is well solved, but with the development of technology, it is not impossible to solve these problems. This is why although the extended-range route has advantages, it is not favored by many car companies, especially giants.<b>The automotive industry prefers to regard range extension as a transitional solution rather than the ultimate solution.</b></p><p>In terms of pure electric technology, Ideal has no advantage, and so far no pure electric model has been interviewed. Although in terms of strategic planning, Ideal has realized the importance of pure electric lines and focused on high-voltage fast charging technology, the first pure electric model will not be launched until 2023 at the earliest.</p><p>The effect is unknown, but technology and market changes are changing with each passing day. Although the penetration rate is still in the growth range, the competition for pure electric vehicles has become very daytime. All kinds of \"immortals\", traditional, new, and cross-border, are shirtless. If it is difficult to compete, how much time does Li Auto have to spend? If it cannot quickly make a breakthrough on the pure electric technology route and ideally gain benefits on the extended-range route, how long can it be squandered?</p><p>In research and development, Li Auto has enjoyed the benefits of extended range, and the cost is significantly lower than that of competitors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a0ce8d4a224bf61d7f6462f03993e35\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"643\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But the opposite of being too pragmatic can also be timid. Once the investment is increased, there will inevitably be the possibility of expanding financial losses. Does Ideal have enough courage to break the wrist of a strong man?</p><p>According to post-hearing information, Li Auto is developing the X platform, which inherits the existing extended-range electric vehicle platform of Ideal ONE and is equipped with a next-generation extended-range electric power system. The company plans to launch its first product on the X platform-a full-size luxury extended-program electric SUV in 2022, and launch two other SUVs on the X platform in 2023.</p><p><b>Obviously, one of the ideal focuses is still on the extended-range technology route. Can this solve its long-term concerns?</b></p><p><b>4、</b><b>epilogue</b></p><p>As a new thing, new energy vehicles are a combination of traditional vehicles and electronic products, carrying the revolutionary ideal of mankind for travel modes. Who can make it to the end in this war depends on technology research and development.</p><p>In the competition of technology research and development, the first is the strategic direction, and the second is the burning of money and talents.</p><p>The choice of extended program enabled Ideal to survive the difficulties in the early days of starting a business, successfully survive, and lived well.<b>But relying solely on this technical route, ideals cannot win the future.</b></p><p>Ideal said that it is investing heavily in high-voltage pure electric vehicle technology and developing two platforms for future high-voltage pure electric models-Whale and Shark. Starting from 2022, all new models in Li Auto will be equipped with self-developed future L4-level autonomous driving. The necessary hardware compatible is standard, and an \"ideal\" is set-accounting for 20% of the market share within 5 years.</p><p>The ideal is very plump.</p><p>Last year, it successfully landed in the U.S. stock market, and now it has come to the Hong Kong stock market. From the perspective of abundant capital, the ideal is settled. The popularity of new energy vehicles since last year has also allowed Ideal to enjoy the highlight of doubling its stock price.</p><p>But on the issue of talents, the industry is already in a situation of \"too many monks and too few porridge\". Even if Ideal is willing to spend money, can it be guaranteed that talents will be found? Competitors all hold a lot of money in their hands. Compared with throwing money, the ideal may not be able to surely beat anyone?</p><p>Reality is skinny.</p><p>The return of the ideal may be the beginning of the real challenge.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The three new energy giants have become undecently rolled</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe three new energy giants have become undecently rolled\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇投资学苑 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-26 20:29</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Follow<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>After that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Back, too.</p><p>On July 26, Hong Kong Stock Exchange documents showed that Li Auto will seek to apply for dual primary listing as an issuer with different voting rights structure through the Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing hearing.</p><p>Although it is one of the three major new car-making forces in China, compared with the other two, Li Auto seems to be much lower-key, and many operating indicators have no obvious advantages. Can this landing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange become a new starting point for Li Auto, and complete the counterattack in the future competition?</p><p><b>1、</b><b>Business data, not ideal?</b></p><p>From the product point of view, Li Auto only has one six-seater medium-to-large<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">Luxurious</a>Electric SUV--Ideal ONE; In terms of sales volume, in 2020, Ideal sold 32,624 vehicles, ranking among the middle of the year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">National New Energy</a>Car sales ranked sixth, accounting for 2.8% of the market share, and ranked third among automakers that only produce new energy vehicles. As of June 30, 2021, Ideal has delivered a total of more than 63,000 Ideal ONEs.</p><p>Looking at competitors,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>, XPeng has mass-produced more than two automobile products, including SUVs and cars.<b>In 2020, Nio's sales will reach 43,728 vehicles, which is higher than the ideal, while XPeng's sales will reach 27,006 vehicles, which is relatively low.</b>But the difference is that the competitors are all pure electric models, and the ideal extended-range technology route is somewhat touched by the convenience of fuel vehicles.</p><p>In terms of financial data, Ideal is still at a loss. From 2019 to 2020, Li Auto's total revenue was approximately 284 million yuan and 9.457 billion yuan respectively, and the net losses attributable to ordinary shareholders were 3.282 billion yuan and 792 million yuan respectively. The losses have narrowed, while the gross profit has turned positive.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/129a0d88612f98087ba073834f0e32dc\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, the total revenue in the first three months of 2021 was 3.575 billion yuan, and the net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders was 360 million yuan, an increase of 3.67 times compared with the same period last year.<b>The reason is that R&D expenses and marketing expenses are growing rapidly.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b96932b218d0b2a17d8eb1be2744d78f\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>To plan for the future, research and development expenses must be maintained, and marketing expenses are difficult to reduce due to the need to seize the market. In other words, it is difficult for both expenses to be reduced in the short term, so it is still very likely that this year's net loss will exceed last year's.</b></p><p>It is difficult to judge when the net profit will turn positive, but this is also a common problem for new domestic forces. If you apply<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>What we have experienced, in the year when the net profit turned positive, the total sales volume was 500,000 vehicles, so the profitability of new domestic forces is still far away. Of course, there is still a big difference between \"Wei Xiaoli\" and Tesla, and forced comparison doesn't make much sense. I just want to explain that there is still a long way to go to truly achieve profitability.</p><p>However, fortunately, the ideal monthly sales volume continues to grow. In June, it also won the domestic medium and large SUV sales championship, surpassing Nio vehicles in total sales, which is a good development trend.</p><p>The continued strength of sales depends on Li Auto's layout of sales channels. As of June 30, 2021, it had 97 retail stores in major cities in China, and on July 10, 2021, it opened its 100th retail store. Like Tesla, Ideal locates retail stores in shopping malls that target users may visit, rather than central business districts or landmark buildings.</p><p>The number of stores of competitor XPeng, including 88 directly-operated stores and 90 franchised stores, totals 178, which is 1.8 times that of Ideal. However, in the first half of this year, the sales volume of Ideal and XPeng was about 30,000 vehicles, which also shows that Ideal has an advantage in terms of single-store sales efficiency.</p><p>To sum up the above operating indicators and financial data, we only see a relatively good trend of change, and it is difficult to apply conventional value models to quantify investment value.</p><p>However, Li Auto is on a track of rapid development, sufficient growth dividends, and all developed countries are competing for it, so it must be viewed from a deeper perspective.</p><p><b>2、</b><b>Technical route, solve near-optimal</b></p><p>In the choice of major strategic direction, Li Auto is not too idealistic, but very realistic.</p><p>At that time, when Tesla decided to make an electric car, it started with a luxurious sports car. What he took a fancy to was the technology tycoons in Silicon Valley, who were rich and willing to try new technologies, and at the same time contributed to environmental protection. The feelings of saving the world.</p><p>Behind this, it is actually based on the overall consideration of business. The technology of electric vehicles is not yet mature, and the mass production is limited, so the price must be very expensive. If you rush to knock on the door of the grassroots market from the beginning, the result is likely to be rejected, and it is easy to be jointly encircled and suppressed by fuel vehicle manufacturers, and even stillborn.</p><p>Therefore, it is a safe approach to start from a relatively differentiated market, and later facts also proved the success of Tesla's strategy.</p><p>The same is true for Li Auto. After sorting out its various strategic thinking contexts, two points are very clear.</p><p>First,<b>Starting with medium and large SUV models, like Nio, they are interested in market acceptance and price advantage.</b>In the past ten years, SUVs have been sought after by consumers for their strong power and spacious space, and the rising consumption power of Chinese people has supported this SUV boom. Therefore, choosing SUV models to enter the market can well share costs, eliminate the price gap with similar fuel vehicles, and make it easier for consumers to accept new energy vehicles.</p><p>And second,<b>Technical route of extended range.</b>This is also the most controversial place in Li Auto. Why did Ideal choose this route?</p><p>Let's take a look at the following pictures first.</p><p>Comparing the three technical routes, you will find that the extended-range technical route is actually a trick between plug-in hybrid power and HEV hybrid power.</p><p>It can be refueled and charged like a plug-in hybrid, and it also has the whole process of driving the motor to provide power through the fuel engine to generate electricity, reserve and discharge, but it does not have the function of the fuel engine directly driving the wheels.</p><p>It can also be powered by just refueling like an HEV hybrid, and then the fuel vehicle engine generates electricity, but it also does not have the function of the fuel engine directly driving the wheels.</p><p>Anyone who has driven a fuel vehicle knows that the engine is very noisy when rotating, and the fuel conversion efficiency is not high. Even the best technology can hardly exceed 50%. This is the thermal efficiency problem that fuel vehicles are often criticized. But electric vehicles are different. The noise of motor rotation is much lower than that of fuel engines, and the power conversion efficiency is also higher, often reaching 80-90%.</p><p>Therefore, the advantage of the extended range is that it not only makes full use of the advantage of the motor instead of the fuel engine as the power source, but also retains the benefit of \"being able to refuel\", which solves the range anxiety of pure electric vehicles, too long charging time, and too few charging piles.</p><p><b>In other words, the convenience of using fuel vehicles brings out the superiority of electric vehicles.</b></p><p>The new energy vehicle industry is very expensive. Li Bin, the boss of Nio, once famously said:<b>\"If you don't have 20 billion, don't make an electric car.\"</b></p><p>Ask realistically, how many start-up car companies can get 20 billion as soon as they sell?</p><p>Nio himself almost died because of lack of money, so he was qualified to talk about \"ideals\" only if he could survive smoothly. The financing data disclosed by Li Auto before its listing was 14.6 billion. If you blindly burn money into it, it is likely that the car will not even come out, and the company will already hang up.</p><p>Don't blindly blow the cannon, start from the most pragmatic route, the goal is to survive, and then plan the overall situation of the future. This is the starting point and final destination of ideal strategic thinking.</p><p><b>3、</b><b>Ideal foresight, can it be solved?</b></p><p>Like many technology-intensive industries, the choice of technical routes is very important for new energy vehicle companies.</p><p>From the perspective of short-term survival, there is nothing wrong with the ideal choice of the extended-range technology route, and facts have proved its correctness. In terms of annual sales, it is second only to Tesla and Nio, and its gross profit margin and net profit margin are also significantly ahead of Nio and XPeng.</p><p>But people have no near worries, but they must have far-sighted worries.</p><p>For Li Auto, this long-term consideration is the pure electric technology route.</p><p>From the long-term development trend of new energy vehicles, pure electricity is inevitable. It can better solve human dependence on oil and provide support for more intelligent applications. Although the problems of range anxiety and charging convenience have not yet been solved. It is well solved, but with the development of technology, it is not impossible to solve these problems. This is why although the extended-range route has advantages, it is not favored by many car companies, especially giants.<b>The automotive industry prefers to regard range extension as a transitional solution rather than the ultimate solution.</b></p><p>In terms of pure electric technology, Ideal has no advantage, and so far no pure electric model has been interviewed. Although in terms of strategic planning, Ideal has realized the importance of pure electric lines and focused on high-voltage fast charging technology, the first pure electric model will not be launched until 2023 at the earliest.</p><p>The effect is unknown, but technology and market changes are changing with each passing day. Although the penetration rate is still in the growth range, the competition for pure electric vehicles has become very daytime. All kinds of \"immortals\", traditional, new, and cross-border, are shirtless. If it is difficult to compete, how much time does Li Auto have to spend? If it cannot quickly make a breakthrough on the pure electric technology route and ideally gain benefits on the extended-range route, how long can it be squandered?</p><p>In research and development, Li Auto has enjoyed the benefits of extended range, and the cost is significantly lower than that of competitors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a0ce8d4a224bf61d7f6462f03993e35\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"643\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But the opposite of being too pragmatic can also be timid. Once the investment is increased, there will inevitably be the possibility of expanding financial losses. Does Ideal have enough courage to break the wrist of a strong man?</p><p>According to post-hearing information, Li Auto is developing the X platform, which inherits the existing extended-range electric vehicle platform of Ideal ONE and is equipped with a next-generation extended-range electric power system. The company plans to launch its first product on the X platform-a full-size luxury extended-program electric SUV in 2022, and launch two other SUVs on the X platform in 2023.</p><p><b>Obviously, one of the ideal focuses is still on the extended-range technology route. Can this solve its long-term concerns?</b></p><p><b>4、</b><b>epilogue</b></p><p>As a new thing, new energy vehicles are a combination of traditional vehicles and electronic products, carrying the revolutionary ideal of mankind for travel modes. Who can make it to the end in this war depends on technology research and development.</p><p>In the competition of technology research and development, the first is the strategic direction, and the second is the burning of money and talents.</p><p>The choice of extended program enabled Ideal to survive the difficulties in the early days of starting a business, successfully survive, and lived well.<b>But relying solely on this technical route, ideals cannot win the future.</b></p><p>Ideal said that it is investing heavily in high-voltage pure electric vehicle technology and developing two platforms for future high-voltage pure electric models-Whale and Shark. Starting from 2022, all new models in Li Auto will be equipped with self-developed future L4-level autonomous driving. The necessary hardware compatible is standard, and an \"ideal\" is set-accounting for 20% of the market share within 5 years.</p><p>The ideal is very plump.</p><p>Last year, it successfully landed in the U.S. stock market, and now it has come to the Hong Kong stock market. From the perspective of abundant capital, the ideal is settled. The popularity of new energy vehicles since last year has also allowed Ideal to enjoy the highlight of doubling its stock price.</p><p>But on the issue of talents, the industry is already in a situation of \"too many monks and too few porridge\". Even if Ideal is willing to spend money, can it be guaranteed that talents will be found? Competitors all hold a lot of money in their hands. Compared with throwing money, the ideal may not be able to surely beat anyone?</p><p>Reality is skinny.</p><p>The return of the ideal may be the beginning of the real challenge.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edb5904d62b10798f760277be625646d","relate_stocks":{"160640":"新能源","399941":"新能源","LI":"理想汽车","09868":"小鹏汽车-W","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","NIO":"蔚来","000941.SH":"新能源"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108257936","content_text":"继小鹏汽车之后，理想汽车也回来了。\n7月26日，港交所文件显示，理想汽车通过港交所上市聆讯，将寻求作为具有不同投票权架构的发行人申请双重主要上市。\n虽然是国内三大造车新势力之一，但相比另外两个，理想汽车似乎要低调很多，诸多的经营指标也没有明显的优势，此次登陆港交所，又能否成为理想汽车新的起点，并在未来的竞争中完成逆袭？\n1、经营数据，理不理想？\n从产品上看，理想汽车只有一款六座中大型豪华电动SUV--理想ONE；销量上，2020年，理想卖出了32624辆，名列年度中国新能源汽车销量第六位，占市场份额2.8%，在仅生产新能源汽车的汽车制造商中排名第三。截至2021年6月30日，理想一共交付超过63000辆理想ONE。\n反观竞争对手，蔚来、小鹏都已量产两款以上的汽车产品，包括SUV和轿车，2020年蔚来的销量达到43728辆，高于理想，小鹏则是27006辆，相对低一点。但不同的是，竞争对手的都是纯电车型，而理想的增程式技术路线，多少沾了燃油车的方便性。\n在财务数据上，理想仍处于亏损状态。2019-2020年，理想汽车总收入分别约为2.84亿、94.57亿元，归属普通股东的净亏损分别为32.82亿元、7.92亿元，亏损有所收窄，而毛利上已经转正。\n\n但2021年前三个月总收入35.75亿元，归属普通股东的净亏损3.6亿元，相比去年同期，扩大了3.67倍，原因在于研发费用和营销费用增长较快。\n\n要布局未来，研发费用就得维持，而出于抢占市场的需要，营销费用也很难减少。换言之，两项费用短期内都有很难降下来，所以预计今年的净亏损额超过去年的可能性还很高。\n何时能够实现净利润转正，不好下判断，但这也是国内新势力普遍存在的问题。如果套用特斯拉经历的事情，净利润实现转正的那一年，总销量是50万辆，那国内新势力的盈利道路，还遥远得很。当然，“蔚小理”和特斯拉差别还很大，强行对比并没有太多意义，只是想说明，要真正实现盈利，道路还很漫长。\n不过，好在理想的月度销量还在持续增长，6月份还拿下了国内中大型SUV销量冠军，在总销量上也超越蔚来汽车，在发展趋势上是不错的。\n销售的持续给力，有赖于理想汽车在销售渠道方面的布局。截至2021年6月30日，在中国主要城市拥有97家零售门店，2021年7月10日，开设了第100家零售店。和特斯拉一样，理想将零售门店选址在目标用户可能光顾的购物中心，而非中心商业区或地标性建筑。\n而竞争对手小鹏的门店数量，包括直营店88家，特许经营店90家，合计178家，是理想的1.8倍，但是今年上半年理想和小鹏的销量都是3万辆左右，这也表明在单店销售效率上，理想是有优势的。\n综上的经营指标和财务数据，只是看到一个相对不错的变化趋势，很难套用常规的价值模型去量化投资价值。\n但理想汽车，正处于一个快速发展、增长红利很足且各发达国家都在争抢的赛道，所以得从更深层次的角度去看待它。\n2、技术路线，解决近优\n在重大的战略方向选择上，理想汽车并没有过多的理想主义，而是非常的现实。\n当年，特斯拉在决定做电动车时，是从豪华的跑车切入，看中的不过是硅谷的科技富豪们，既有钱，又乐意尝试新科技的心理，同时还有一份为环保贡献力量的济世情怀。\n这背后，其实是基于商业的通盘考虑，电动车技术尚未成熟，加上量产有限，价格必定很贵，如果一开始就贸贸然去敲基层市场的大门，结果大概率是吃闭门羹，而且很容易被燃油车厂联合围剿，甚至胎死腹中。\n所以，从相对差异化的市场入手，不失为一个稳妥做法，后来的事实也证明特斯拉这个战略的成功。\n理想汽车也一样，梳理一下它的各种战略思维脉络，有两点非常清晰。\n第一，从中大型SUV车型入手，和蔚来一样，它们看中的正是市场接受度和价格优势。过去十年，SUV凭借着强劲的动力、宽敞的空间，受到消费者的追捧，而国人不断上升的消费力则支撑起了这股SUV热潮。因此，选择SUV车型打入市场，能够很好地平摊成本，消除和同类型燃油车的价格差距，使得消费者更容易接受新能源汽车。\n第二，增程式的技术路线。这点也是理想汽车争议最多的地方，到底理想为何会选择这个路线？\n先看看下面几张图。\n三种技术路线一对比，你会发现，增程式技术路线其实是在插电式混合动力和HEV混合动力中间取了巧。\n它可以像插电式混动那样加油充电两不误，也具备通过燃油发动机发电、储备、放电后带动电机从而提供动力的全过程，但它没有燃油发动机直接带动车轮的功能。\n它也可以像HEV混动那样仅仅通过加油，然后由燃油车发动机发电提供动力，但它同样没有燃油发动机直接带动车轮的功能。\n开过燃油车的人都知道，发动机转动时噪音很大，而且燃油的转化效率并不高，即使最牛的技术，也很难超过50%，这正是燃油车常常被诟病的热效率问题。但电动车就不一样，电机转动的噪音比燃油发动机低很多，动力转换效率也更高，常常可以达到80-90%。\n所以，增程式的优势就在于，既充分利用了电机代替燃油发动机作为动力来源的优势，又保留了“可以加油”的好处，这就解决纯电车型里程焦虑、充电时间过长、充电桩太少的问题。\n换句话说，就是用燃油车的方便性，开出了电动车的优越性。\n新能源车这个行当非常烧钱，蔚来的老板李斌有过一句名言：“没有200亿，不要做电动车。”\n实事求是地问，有多少创业车企一出手就能拿到200亿？\n蔚来自己都差点因为缺钱挂掉，所以能够顺利活下来，才有资格去谈“理想”。理想汽车上市前披露的融资数据，是146亿，如果盲目地烧钱进去，很可能车都没出来，公司就已经挂了。\n不盲目吹大炮，从最务实的路线出发，目标是活下来，再谋划未来的大局，这正是理想做战略思考的出发点，也是最终归宿。\n3、理想的远虑，能解决吗？\n和很多技术密集型行业一样，技术路线的选择对于新能源汽车公司来说，非常重要。\n从短期活下来的角度看，理想选择增程式技术路线无可否非，事实也证明它的正确性，年度销量上，它仅次于特斯拉和蔚来，毛利率和净利率也大幅领先蔚来和小鹏。\n但人无近忧，必有远虑。\n对于理想汽车，这个远虑，就是纯电技术路线。\n从长远的新能源车发展趋势上，纯电是必然，它能更好地解决人类对于石油的依赖，以及为更多智能化的落地运用提供支撑，虽然里程焦虑、充电便利性问题至今还没有很好地解决，但随着技术的发展，要解决这些问题并非不可能。这也正是增程式路线虽然有优势，但也并没有受到太多车企尤其是巨头的青睐的原因，汽车界更愿意将增程式视为过渡方案，而不是终极方案。\n在纯电技术上，理想并没有优势，至今也没有一辆纯电车型面试。虽然在战略规划上，理想已经意识纯电路线的重要性，重点押注了高压快充技术，但最快也得2023年才能推出首款纯电车型。\n效果如何未可知，但技术和市场的变化日新月异，虽然渗透率还处在增长区间，但纯电车竞争已非常白日化，各路“神仙”，传统的、新的、跨界的，都赤膊上阵，争得不好开交，理想汽车还有多少时间去消耗，如果不能在纯电技术路线上迅速取得突破，理想在增程式路线上获得好处，还能挥霍多久？\n在研发，理想汽车吃过增程式的好处，费用上大幅低于竞争对手。\n\n但过分务实的反面，也可以是畏首畏尾，一旦加大投入，财务上必然会出现亏损扩大的可能性，理想又有没有足够的魄力去壮士断腕？\n据聆讯后资料显示，理想汽车正在开发X平台，它继承了理想ONE现有的增程序电动汽车平台，并配备了下一代增程电动动力系统。公司计划于2022年推出X平台上的首款产品——全尺寸豪华增程序电动SUV，并于2023年在X平台上推出另外两款SUV。\n很明显，理想的重点之一仍然在增程式技术路线上，这能够解决它的远虑吗？\n4、结语\n新能源汽车作为新生事物，是传统汽车和电子产品的合体，承载了人类对出行方式的革命理想，谁能够在这场大战中走到最后，取决于技术研发。\n而技术研发比拼的，首先是战略方向，其次才是烧钱和人才。\n增程式的选择令理想度过了创业初期的艰难，成功地活下来，而且活得还不错。但仅仅依靠这个技术路线，理想不可能赢得未来。\n理想表示正大力投资高压纯电动汽车技术，为未来的高压纯电动车型开发两个平台—Whale及Shark，并自2022年起，理想汽车的所有新车型将配有与自主开发的未来L4级自动驾驶兼容的必要硬件作为标配，并立下“理想”--5年内占20%市场份额。\n理想很丰满。\n去年顺利登陆美股，现在又来到港股，从资本充裕的角度，理想是有着落了。而去年至今新能源汽车的火热，也让理想享受了股价翻倍的高光。\n但在人才的问题，行业已经是“僧多粥少”的情况，即使理想愿意砸钱，就能够保证一定找得到人才吗？竞争对手个个都手握重金，比砸钱，理想不一定能稳赢过谁？\n现实很骨感。\n理想的回归，或许才是真正挑战的开始。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"160640":0.9,"399941":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"000941.SH":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"09868":0.9,"LI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3446,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177917604,"gmtCreate":1627175598008,"gmtModify":1703485010052,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"尤大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/177917604","repostId":"2154939392","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2516,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent"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21:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"[Change] The lithium battery sector in the US stock market strengthened, Livent rose more than 7%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131487400","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月21日，美股锂电池板块走强，Livent涨超7%，智利矿业化工、美国雅宝公司、Lithium Americas均涨超3%。美银称全球电动汽车电池最早可能在2025年断供。","content":"<p>On July 21, the lithium battery sector in the U.S. stock market strengthened, with Livent rising more than 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQM\">Chile Mining and Chemical Industry</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALB\">American Albemarle Corporation</a>Lithium Americas Both rose more than 3%. Bank of America says global electric vehicle battery supply may be cut off as early as 2025.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6d5fff270b9eb92b913298b1d8f590c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>[Change] The lithium battery sector in the US stock market strengthened, Livent rose more than 7%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n[Change] The lithium battery sector in the US stock market strengthened, Livent rose more than 7%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-21 21:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On July 21, the lithium battery sector in the U.S. stock market strengthened, with Livent rising more than 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQM\">Chile Mining and Chemical Industry</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALB\">American Albemarle Corporation</a>Lithium Americas Both rose more than 3%. Bank of America says global electric vehicle battery supply may be cut off as early as 2025.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6d5fff270b9eb92b913298b1d8f590c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3ac286c2233d10a592ba6c388667fb","relate_stocks":{"SQM":"智利矿业化工","LTHM":"Livent Corp.","ALB":"美国雅保"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131487400","content_text":"7月21日，美股锂电池板块走强，Livent涨超7%，智利矿业化工、美国雅宝公司、Lithium Americas均涨超3%。美银称全球电动汽车电池最早可能在2025年断供。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ALB":0.9,"SQM":0.9,"LTHM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171991770,"gmtCreate":1626701365790,"gmtModify":1703763586415,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"尤大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171991770","repostId":"2152763544","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2152763544","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1626676742,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2152763544?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-19 14:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What is the \"new information\" in Powell's testimony?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2152763544","media":"格隆汇","summary":"一、主题评论：鲍威尔证词里的“新信息”\n7月14日，美联储公布了主席鲍威尔将于7月15日向美国参议院银行、住房和城市事务委员会提交的证词，以及美联储半年度货币政策报告。\n整体而言，鲍威尔的讲话维持鸽派","content":"<p><h3>1.<b>Subject comment: \"New information\" in Powell's testimony</b></h3>On July 14, the Federal Reserve released Chairman Powell's testimony to be submitted to the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs on July 15, as well as the Federal Reserve's semi-annual monetary policy report.</p><p><b>Overall, Powell's speech remained dovish. This is reflected in: \"flaunting\" the positive impact of loose monetary policy on the U.S. economy, believing that there is still a long way to go before the labor market recovers, emphasizing that the higher inflation rate is mainly caused by base effects and supply chain bottlenecks, and not worrying about the financial system. vulnerability, and emphasizing that the U.S. economy has not yet made the \"substantial further progress\" required to implement Taper, and that Taper will be \"notified in advance\", etc.</b></p><p>After Powell's testimony was released, the market also felt the familiar \"dove sound\", and the market panic caused by the soaring U.S. inflation indicators in June eased slightly. The S&P 500 index hit a new intraday high, the 10-year U.S. bond yield fell by more than 5 basis points at the deepest, and the the US Dollar Index fell in the short term. It is worth noting that the Bank of New Zealand has stopped Treasury Bond purchases, and the Bank of Canada has begun to implement Taper.<b>We believe that the Fed is still trying to \"not make a sharp turn\", but in the future, if the U.S. job market recovers as scheduled, inflation indicators remain high, and foreign central banks \"rush\", then the Fed's \"excuses\" will be even more insufficient, and it still needs to Be wary of the risk that the Fed's policy shift will come \"earlier\" or be \"stronger\" than expected.</b></p><p>Specifically, the key information in Powell's testimony includes:</p><p><b>1) The U.S. economy is recovering rapidly, but supply chain bottlenecks have affected some industries.</b>Powell believes that in the first half of 2021, the reopening of the U.S. economy and strong economic growth will be helped by COVID-19 vaccine vaccination on the one hand, and supported by loose monetary and fiscal policies on the other. The most obvious of these is that household spending is growing at a particularly rapid rate, housing demand is very strong, and business investment is growing steadily. But at the same time, supply constraints have restricted activity in some industries, most notably the automotive industry. The global semiconductor shortage has slashed production in the automotive industry so far this year.</p><p><b>2) Labor market conditions continue to improve, but there is still a long way to go.</b>Powell believes that U.S. labor demand appears to be very strong, with job vacancies currently at record highs, strong hiring momentum and many people leaving in search of better jobs. From April to June, U.S. employers added 1.7 million new workers. However, the unemployment rate in the United States remained as high as 5.9% in June, and this figure also underestimated the lack of employment recovery, because the labor force participation rate remained sluggish. But U.S. job growth should be strong in the coming months as the pandemic improves and its impact on employment diminishes. In addition, he also emphasized that the employment of low-income groups and people of color is more affected and needs to be restored.</p><p><b>3) Inflation has risen significantly and is likely to remain high in the coming months before easing.</b>Powell believes that the first is that the base effect temporarily pushes up inflation, and the second is that in the context of strong demand, supply bottlenecks lead to rapid prices for certain goods and services. However, as supply chain bottlenecks ease in the future, similar situations should be reversed to a certain extent. Prices for services severely affected by the pandemic have also risen sharply in recent months, as demand for services is rising sharply as the economy reopens. He emphasized that the Federal Reserve has adjusted its monetary policy framework to seek to stabilize long-term inflation expectations at 2%, and the indicator that measures long-term inflation expectations has recovered from the low point and is currently in a range roughly consistent with the Fed's long-term inflation target.</p><p><b>4) The Fed is not yet worried about asset prices and the fragility of the financial system.</b>Powell said that sustainable employment maximization and price stability depend on a stable financial system, so the Fed will continue to monitor the vulnerabilities of the financial system. However, although the valuations of all kinds of assets have generally increased as fundamentals improve and investors' risk appetite increases, the balance sheet of American households is quite strong, the level of corporate leverage has been declining from a high level, and the institutions at the core of the financial system remain resilient.</p><p><b>5) Powell still denies that the economy has made \"substantial further progress\" and maintains a dovish tone.</b>Powell said the combination of \"zero interest rates\" + asset purchases, coupled with \"strong guidance\" on interest rates and balance sheets, will ensure that monetary policy continues to provide strong support to the U.S. economy until the recovery is complete. It reiterated the main points of the June FOMC meeting: for interest rate adjustments, it is necessary to wait until the economy truly achieves maximum employment and long-term inflation targets; For asset purchases, at least the current pace will be maintained until \"substantial further progress\" is made. Powell further revealed that at the June interest rate meeting, the committee discussed the progress made by the U.S. economy since December last year. Although it is still some way from reaching the standard of \"substantial further progress\", the progress is expected to continue. The Fed will continue to discuss these issues in future meetings. The Federal Reserve will provide advance notice before announcing any changes to asset purchases.</p><p><h3><b>Two,</b><b>Overseas Economic Tracking</b></h3>1</p><p><b>U.S. Economy: Inflation indicators hit new highs in June, and consumption of non-durable goods and services gradually picked up momentum</b></p><p>The U.S. CPI continued to hit a new high year-on-year in June, rising 0.9% month-on-month, significantly higher than the average growth rate of the past five years (about 0.2%). Looking at items, most of them are accelerating month-on-month.<b>The most \"exaggerated\" thing is that the transportation item rose by 3.6% month-on-month (the previous value was 2.1%), which is still due to the increase in used car prices.</b>At present, it is difficult to judge the inflection point of used car price growth, and it may still have an unexpected pulling effect on the US CPI in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18bc1d3f271ec0d93b01c0be754f4b07\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>The year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates of U.S. PPI in June also hit new highs, with all sub-items rising month-on-month, of which the \"trade\" sub-item rose by 2.1% month-on-month. In the past month,<b>The rise in international oil prices not only directly increases the cost pressure of energy products, but also leads to an increase in international freight rates and a sharp increase in the prices of imported goods in the United States.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788dd66c7ab2ea169c154ddbe5b870c8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>U.S. retail sales rose slightly by 0.55% month-on-month in June, better than expected and previous values.<b>The structural changes of retail sales deserve attention. The sales of \"small items\" are better than those of \"large items\".</b>Sales of department stores, clothing accessories, food and beverages continued to rise, while sales of automobiles, furniture and home improvement, building materials and materials continued to decline. We continue to emphasize that in the second half of the year, U.S. consumption power will shift from durable goods to non-durable goods and services, and service consumption accounts for the bulk of U.S. residents' consumption, so there is still sufficient room for consumption growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f2db4d79190094ea518b852220b8f58\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The initial value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in the United States dropped significantly in July.</b>The rapid rise in prices and the expectation of a marginal slowdown in the U.S. economy may have suppressed consumer confidence to some extent. However,<b>Employment indicators still send optimistic signals,</b>In the week ending July 3, the number of continuing jobless claims in the United States dropped significantly by 126,000 to 3.241 million, and the latest number of initial jobless claims also continued to decline. With the expiration of additional unemployment benefits in the United States, there is still hope for a rapid recovery of employment in the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/912f8e51be197290db777f52cf9d37ec\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>2</p><p><b>Overseas epidemic situation and vaccine tracking: a new wave of global epidemics is coming</b></p><p><b>Since late June, especially July, the world may be at the starting point of a new wave of epidemics.</b>Previously, the epidemic in India rose significantly and posed a certain degree of threat to the global economy. However, the current epidemic situation in India has gradually eased, and the new wave of the epidemic has affected a wider scope. At present, many areas are disturbed by the Delta virus, and the number of new confirmed cases is rising again. In Europe, the epidemic situation in the UK took the lead in rising and began to approach the high point in January this year. However, the UK will be completely unsealed on July 19 (restrictions on wearing masks, 1 meter social distance, working from home, and density of people in public places will be lifted). This is a new trend of global epidemic prevention policies worthy of attention. In the past week, the number of new confirmed cases in France has also shown signs of rising, and the epidemic situation in other EU countries such as Germany and Italy is still stable. The epidemic situation in Japan has just eased, and it has risen significantly in the past week. The Olympic Games is just around the corner, and the risk of the epidemic situation has attracted global attention. The epidemic situation in Southeast Asian countries is \"ebbing and changing\". Recently, Vietnam, Thailand and other countries have deteriorated significantly, and related stock markets have also been significantly impacted. The epidemic in Israel has also unexpectedly counterattacked, and the effectiveness of vaccination against new viruses may be \"discounted\". However, looking further at the British epidemic data, vaccination has greatly reduced the mortality rate. It is not impossible that COVID-19 pandemic will continue to survive like the \"flu\" in the future, but its impact is controllable. But,<b>Concerns about the global epidemic are, to a certain extent, cooling the recent risk appetite of the capital market, and reflation transactions have been questioned, which deserves continued attention.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dbf848a54d0d9c8c1eccaec1359aa62\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cd919d9bf8e9457c68df716ef4280cc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf9bae175032440d3c388e9ca605b33e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Global Asset Performance</p><p>1</p><p><b>Global Stocks-Emerging Markets Rally, Developed Markets Pull Back</b></p><p>Emerging markets, especially Asian emerging market stock markets, have been underperforming developed markets since late June due to the counterattack of the epidemic and the alert of \"austerity panic\". In the past week, it finally rebounded, and the stock indexes of major markets such as South Korea, India, Taiwan Province, Mexico, China (GEM and CSI 300), Indonesia and Brazil all rose. At the same time, most developed market stock markets pulled back, but the U.S. Dow (-0.5%) fell less than the Nasdaq (-1.9%), and the U.S. stock cyclical sector showed stronger resilience.</p><p><b>Vietnam's stock market has suffered heavy losses in the past two weeks.</b>On July 14th, Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh Index fell by nearly 10% compared with July 2nd. Vietnam's stock market has performed well since the beginning of this year, basically maintaining a unilateral upward trend before July. Vietnam's strong export performance is the cornerstone of market confidence. According to Vietnamplus, Vietnam's exports of goods from January to June this year increased by 28.4% year-on-year. However, note that<b>Possible changes in confidence in the Vietnamese market after the marginal slowdown in external demand in the second half of the year.</b>On July 5th, 11th and 16th, the number of newly confirmed cases in a single day in Vietnam exceeded 1,000, 2,000 and 4,000 respectively, but before May this year, the number did not exceed 100. The sudden rise of the epidemic should be the trigger for this stock market adjustment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9691c486b0bd2aec0923cc0031fc6e38\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98124ab0b82d7230c0778dd983cb3221\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">2</p><p><b>Global bond market-10-year U.S. bond real interest rate falls below-1%</b></p><p>In the past week, long-term U.S. bond yields continued to decline, with 7-year and above U.S. bond yields falling 4-6bp throughout the week. The 10-year U.S. bond yield fell 6bp throughout the week to 1.31%, of which the 10-year TIPS (real) interest rate fell 11bp to-1.02%, and implied inflation expectations rose 5bp to 2.33%.<b>On July 15, the 10-year TIPS rate fell below-1%, hitting a new low since February 12. In the past 10 years, U.S. bond yields have dropped to previously unimaginable lows, mainly because the market lacks confidence in the U.S. economic prospects:</b>On the one hand, the scale of the U.S. fiscal plan is discounted, which has lowered the market's medium and long-term inflation expectations for the United States. And although the inflation indicator is still \"off the charts\" in the short term, since inflation expectations are already at historical highs, it is difficult for the market to continue to bet heavily. However, factors such as the slowdown of vaccination and the disturbance of mutated viruses. This has intensified the market's concerns about whether \"herd immunity\" can be achieved in the second half of the year and whether economic activities can be restarted on time, resulting in a significant decline in the real interest rate of U.S. debt. In the early stage, the market has largely incorporated optimistic expectations into asset pricing, creating U.S. stocks and U.S. corporate bonds that continue to hit new highs. The market is undoubtedly experiencing huge changes in expectations recently. In terms of the global bond market, 10-year Treasury Bond/government bonds in most regions continued to follow U.S. bonds. However, Treasury Bond yields rose due to the sharp deterioration of the epidemic in Thailand, Malaysian and other regions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/926368c7d4bdf8bf2910663929dca4d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc40a8708bcb3030bf1e3a9a8e42a388\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>3</p><p><b>Commodity market-oil prices fell, black series continued to rise,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">Agricultural products</a>Rebound</b></p><p>In the past week, international oil prices have corrected significantly. WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil futures prices fell by 3.7% and 2.6% respectively throughout the week, closing at US $71.81 and US $73.59/barrel respectively. However, EIA U.S. crude oil inventories continued to decline by 7.9 million barrels in the week ending July 9, and the rate of decline was essentially the same as the previous two weeks. The main reason for the fluctuation of oil prices in the past week is the expected change of supply and demand: on the supply side, the resumption of negotiations between the UAE and OPEC means that the production increase plan is expected to proceed smoothly (Saudi Arabia agreed to raise the UAE's production reduction benchmark in exchange for the UAE's agreement to increase the overall production reduction agreement from 2022). April extended to the end of that year); On the demand side, recent disturbances in COVID-19 pandemic and market concerns about the \"peak\" of the U.S. economy may make the market more cautious in judging crude oil demand to a certain extent.<b>In our report \"Will oil prices be the next\" grey rhinoceros \"?\", it is pointed out that supply constraints are the key to oil price trends in the second half of the year. At present, it is a high probability that the increase in shale oil production in the United States will be limited. In the future, we need to pay close attention to whether OPEC + can stick to its previous commitment to increase production. If there is no significant increase in production, international oil prices may fluctuate at a high level in the range of 70-80 US dollars/barrel in the second half of the year.</b></p><p>The prices of domestic black commodities (iron ore, rebar, thermal coal, etc.) have risen for 2-3 consecutive weeks. We reported in March \"Is the\" super cycle \"of commodities coming?\" It suggests the risk of a \"green bubble\", because behind the rise in copper prices, in addition to the real contradiction between supply and demand, there is also speculation and boost from the capital market. After a significant correction in mid-June, LME copper prices have recently remained within a narrow range of US $9,100-9,500/ton. At present, LME copper inventories have risen to a high level in nearly a year, and the shrinking of \"Biden infrastructure\" has also suppressed demand expectations. The tight copper supply and demand situation has shown some signs of easing.<b>In the future, market inflation expectations and risk appetite may also fall back from high levels, and it may be more difficult for copper prices to rise and may experience more fluctuations.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55e6ad7c58aefe649d33c4ac2321641d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/880f378ea54447226750849c934fe3a0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4</p><p><b>Foreign exchange market-the US Dollar Index hits new high since the second quarter</b></p><p>The US Dollar Index rose to 92.79 on July 13, surpassing the previous high of 92.72 on July 7 and setting a new high since April this year.<b>How to understand the relationship between the recent decline in U.S. bond yields and the appreciation of the U.S. dollar? We believe that we need to pay attention to the difference between vertical and horizontal comparisons of the U.S. economy.</b>Recently, the U.S. bond market is trading the \"peak\" of the U.S. economy, which is the main driving force behind the obvious decline of US Treasury yields. However, the recent epidemic situation in many places, including the United Kingdom, has counterattacked, and the economic prospects of non-US regions except the euro zone are still worrying. Therefore, the relative performance of the U.S. economy this year is still \"outstanding\", and the market's expectation of the strengthening of the U.S. dollar is also constantly strengthening. We continue to maintain the judgment that the US dollar is expected to strengthen in stages in the second half of the year (refer to our report \"The Next Step of the US dollar\"). In addition, there are some new changes to support the strength of the US dollar recently: after the European Central Bank adjusts its monetary policy decisions, the European Central Bank may further accelerate the expansion of its balance sheet and delay Taper. The difference in the monetary policy rhythm between the US and European central banks may further release the appreciation space of the US dollar against the euro. It is worth noting that the U.S. dollar has mainly depreciated against developed markets since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, and its value against emerging markets this year has been basically the same as that in the second half of 2019, which may mean that the room for currency depreciation in emerging markets is relatively limited. In the past week, Bitcoin prices have hit a new low since February this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09b6b3535060790986839dc811272b2a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0d2421b79d6ce17f8f080b339b33ea9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What is the \"new information\" in Powell's testimony?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat is the \"new information\" in Powell's testimony?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-19 14:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><h3>1.<b>Subject comment: \"New information\" in Powell's testimony</b></h3>On July 14, the Federal Reserve released Chairman Powell's testimony to be submitted to the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs on July 15, as well as the Federal Reserve's semi-annual monetary policy report.</p><p><b>Overall, Powell's speech remained dovish. This is reflected in: \"flaunting\" the positive impact of loose monetary policy on the U.S. economy, believing that there is still a long way to go before the labor market recovers, emphasizing that the higher inflation rate is mainly caused by base effects and supply chain bottlenecks, and not worrying about the financial system. vulnerability, and emphasizing that the U.S. economy has not yet made the \"substantial further progress\" required to implement Taper, and that Taper will be \"notified in advance\", etc.</b></p><p>After Powell's testimony was released, the market also felt the familiar \"dove sound\", and the market panic caused by the soaring U.S. inflation indicators in June eased slightly. The S&P 500 index hit a new intraday high, the 10-year U.S. bond yield fell by more than 5 basis points at the deepest, and the the US Dollar Index fell in the short term. It is worth noting that the Bank of New Zealand has stopped Treasury Bond purchases, and the Bank of Canada has begun to implement Taper.<b>We believe that the Fed is still trying to \"not make a sharp turn\", but in the future, if the U.S. job market recovers as scheduled, inflation indicators remain high, and foreign central banks \"rush\", then the Fed's \"excuses\" will be even more insufficient, and it still needs to Be wary of the risk that the Fed's policy shift will come \"earlier\" or be \"stronger\" than expected.</b></p><p>Specifically, the key information in Powell's testimony includes:</p><p><b>1) The U.S. economy is recovering rapidly, but supply chain bottlenecks have affected some industries.</b>Powell believes that in the first half of 2021, the reopening of the U.S. economy and strong economic growth will be helped by COVID-19 vaccine vaccination on the one hand, and supported by loose monetary and fiscal policies on the other. The most obvious of these is that household spending is growing at a particularly rapid rate, housing demand is very strong, and business investment is growing steadily. But at the same time, supply constraints have restricted activity in some industries, most notably the automotive industry. The global semiconductor shortage has slashed production in the automotive industry so far this year.</p><p><b>2) Labor market conditions continue to improve, but there is still a long way to go.</b>Powell believes that U.S. labor demand appears to be very strong, with job vacancies currently at record highs, strong hiring momentum and many people leaving in search of better jobs. From April to June, U.S. employers added 1.7 million new workers. However, the unemployment rate in the United States remained as high as 5.9% in June, and this figure also underestimated the lack of employment recovery, because the labor force participation rate remained sluggish. But U.S. job growth should be strong in the coming months as the pandemic improves and its impact on employment diminishes. In addition, he also emphasized that the employment of low-income groups and people of color is more affected and needs to be restored.</p><p><b>3) Inflation has risen significantly and is likely to remain high in the coming months before easing.</b>Powell believes that the first is that the base effect temporarily pushes up inflation, and the second is that in the context of strong demand, supply bottlenecks lead to rapid prices for certain goods and services. However, as supply chain bottlenecks ease in the future, similar situations should be reversed to a certain extent. Prices for services severely affected by the pandemic have also risen sharply in recent months, as demand for services is rising sharply as the economy reopens. He emphasized that the Federal Reserve has adjusted its monetary policy framework to seek to stabilize long-term inflation expectations at 2%, and the indicator that measures long-term inflation expectations has recovered from the low point and is currently in a range roughly consistent with the Fed's long-term inflation target.</p><p><b>4) The Fed is not yet worried about asset prices and the fragility of the financial system.</b>Powell said that sustainable employment maximization and price stability depend on a stable financial system, so the Fed will continue to monitor the vulnerabilities of the financial system. However, although the valuations of all kinds of assets have generally increased as fundamentals improve and investors' risk appetite increases, the balance sheet of American households is quite strong, the level of corporate leverage has been declining from a high level, and the institutions at the core of the financial system remain resilient.</p><p><b>5) Powell still denies that the economy has made \"substantial further progress\" and maintains a dovish tone.</b>Powell said the combination of \"zero interest rates\" + asset purchases, coupled with \"strong guidance\" on interest rates and balance sheets, will ensure that monetary policy continues to provide strong support to the U.S. economy until the recovery is complete. It reiterated the main points of the June FOMC meeting: for interest rate adjustments, it is necessary to wait until the economy truly achieves maximum employment and long-term inflation targets; For asset purchases, at least the current pace will be maintained until \"substantial further progress\" is made. Powell further revealed that at the June interest rate meeting, the committee discussed the progress made by the U.S. economy since December last year. Although it is still some way from reaching the standard of \"substantial further progress\", the progress is expected to continue. The Fed will continue to discuss these issues in future meetings. The Federal Reserve will provide advance notice before announcing any changes to asset purchases.</p><p><h3><b>Two,</b><b>Overseas Economic Tracking</b></h3>1</p><p><b>U.S. Economy: Inflation indicators hit new highs in June, and consumption of non-durable goods and services gradually picked up momentum</b></p><p>The U.S. CPI continued to hit a new high year-on-year in June, rising 0.9% month-on-month, significantly higher than the average growth rate of the past five years (about 0.2%). Looking at items, most of them are accelerating month-on-month.<b>The most \"exaggerated\" thing is that the transportation item rose by 3.6% month-on-month (the previous value was 2.1%), which is still due to the increase in used car prices.</b>At present, it is difficult to judge the inflection point of used car price growth, and it may still have an unexpected pulling effect on the US CPI in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18bc1d3f271ec0d93b01c0be754f4b07\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>The year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates of U.S. PPI in June also hit new highs, with all sub-items rising month-on-month, of which the \"trade\" sub-item rose by 2.1% month-on-month. In the past month,<b>The rise in international oil prices not only directly increases the cost pressure of energy products, but also leads to an increase in international freight rates and a sharp increase in the prices of imported goods in the United States.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788dd66c7ab2ea169c154ddbe5b870c8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>U.S. retail sales rose slightly by 0.55% month-on-month in June, better than expected and previous values.<b>The structural changes of retail sales deserve attention. The sales of \"small items\" are better than those of \"large items\".</b>Sales of department stores, clothing accessories, food and beverages continued to rise, while sales of automobiles, furniture and home improvement, building materials and materials continued to decline. We continue to emphasize that in the second half of the year, U.S. consumption power will shift from durable goods to non-durable goods and services, and service consumption accounts for the bulk of U.S. residents' consumption, so there is still sufficient room for consumption growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f2db4d79190094ea518b852220b8f58\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The initial value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in the United States dropped significantly in July.</b>The rapid rise in prices and the expectation of a marginal slowdown in the U.S. economy may have suppressed consumer confidence to some extent. However,<b>Employment indicators still send optimistic signals,</b>In the week ending July 3, the number of continuing jobless claims in the United States dropped significantly by 126,000 to 3.241 million, and the latest number of initial jobless claims also continued to decline. With the expiration of additional unemployment benefits in the United States, there is still hope for a rapid recovery of employment in the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/912f8e51be197290db777f52cf9d37ec\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>2</p><p><b>Overseas epidemic situation and vaccine tracking: a new wave of global epidemics is coming</b></p><p><b>Since late June, especially July, the world may be at the starting point of a new wave of epidemics.</b>Previously, the epidemic in India rose significantly and posed a certain degree of threat to the global economy. However, the current epidemic situation in India has gradually eased, and the new wave of the epidemic has affected a wider scope. At present, many areas are disturbed by the Delta virus, and the number of new confirmed cases is rising again. In Europe, the epidemic situation in the UK took the lead in rising and began to approach the high point in January this year. However, the UK will be completely unsealed on July 19 (restrictions on wearing masks, 1 meter social distance, working from home, and density of people in public places will be lifted). This is a new trend of global epidemic prevention policies worthy of attention. In the past week, the number of new confirmed cases in France has also shown signs of rising, and the epidemic situation in other EU countries such as Germany and Italy is still stable. The epidemic situation in Japan has just eased, and it has risen significantly in the past week. The Olympic Games is just around the corner, and the risk of the epidemic situation has attracted global attention. The epidemic situation in Southeast Asian countries is \"ebbing and changing\". Recently, Vietnam, Thailand and other countries have deteriorated significantly, and related stock markets have also been significantly impacted. The epidemic in Israel has also unexpectedly counterattacked, and the effectiveness of vaccination against new viruses may be \"discounted\". However, looking further at the British epidemic data, vaccination has greatly reduced the mortality rate. It is not impossible that COVID-19 pandemic will continue to survive like the \"flu\" in the future, but its impact is controllable. But,<b>Concerns about the global epidemic are, to a certain extent, cooling the recent risk appetite of the capital market, and reflation transactions have been questioned, which deserves continued attention.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dbf848a54d0d9c8c1eccaec1359aa62\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cd919d9bf8e9457c68df716ef4280cc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf9bae175032440d3c388e9ca605b33e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Global Asset Performance</p><p>1</p><p><b>Global Stocks-Emerging Markets Rally, Developed Markets Pull Back</b></p><p>Emerging markets, especially Asian emerging market stock markets, have been underperforming developed markets since late June due to the counterattack of the epidemic and the alert of \"austerity panic\". In the past week, it finally rebounded, and the stock indexes of major markets such as South Korea, India, Taiwan Province, Mexico, China (GEM and CSI 300), Indonesia and Brazil all rose. At the same time, most developed market stock markets pulled back, but the U.S. Dow (-0.5%) fell less than the Nasdaq (-1.9%), and the U.S. stock cyclical sector showed stronger resilience.</p><p><b>Vietnam's stock market has suffered heavy losses in the past two weeks.</b>On July 14th, Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh Index fell by nearly 10% compared with July 2nd. Vietnam's stock market has performed well since the beginning of this year, basically maintaining a unilateral upward trend before July. Vietnam's strong export performance is the cornerstone of market confidence. According to Vietnamplus, Vietnam's exports of goods from January to June this year increased by 28.4% year-on-year. However, note that<b>Possible changes in confidence in the Vietnamese market after the marginal slowdown in external demand in the second half of the year.</b>On July 5th, 11th and 16th, the number of newly confirmed cases in a single day in Vietnam exceeded 1,000, 2,000 and 4,000 respectively, but before May this year, the number did not exceed 100. The sudden rise of the epidemic should be the trigger for this stock market adjustment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9691c486b0bd2aec0923cc0031fc6e38\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98124ab0b82d7230c0778dd983cb3221\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">2</p><p><b>Global bond market-10-year U.S. bond real interest rate falls below-1%</b></p><p>In the past week, long-term U.S. bond yields continued to decline, with 7-year and above U.S. bond yields falling 4-6bp throughout the week. The 10-year U.S. bond yield fell 6bp throughout the week to 1.31%, of which the 10-year TIPS (real) interest rate fell 11bp to-1.02%, and implied inflation expectations rose 5bp to 2.33%.<b>On July 15, the 10-year TIPS rate fell below-1%, hitting a new low since February 12. In the past 10 years, U.S. bond yields have dropped to previously unimaginable lows, mainly because the market lacks confidence in the U.S. economic prospects:</b>On the one hand, the scale of the U.S. fiscal plan is discounted, which has lowered the market's medium and long-term inflation expectations for the United States. And although the inflation indicator is still \"off the charts\" in the short term, since inflation expectations are already at historical highs, it is difficult for the market to continue to bet heavily. However, factors such as the slowdown of vaccination and the disturbance of mutated viruses. This has intensified the market's concerns about whether \"herd immunity\" can be achieved in the second half of the year and whether economic activities can be restarted on time, resulting in a significant decline in the real interest rate of U.S. debt. In the early stage, the market has largely incorporated optimistic expectations into asset pricing, creating U.S. stocks and U.S. corporate bonds that continue to hit new highs. The market is undoubtedly experiencing huge changes in expectations recently. In terms of the global bond market, 10-year Treasury Bond/government bonds in most regions continued to follow U.S. bonds. However, Treasury Bond yields rose due to the sharp deterioration of the epidemic in Thailand, Malaysian and other regions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/926368c7d4bdf8bf2910663929dca4d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc40a8708bcb3030bf1e3a9a8e42a388\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>3</p><p><b>Commodity market-oil prices fell, black series continued to rise,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">Agricultural products</a>Rebound</b></p><p>In the past week, international oil prices have corrected significantly. WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil futures prices fell by 3.7% and 2.6% respectively throughout the week, closing at US $71.81 and US $73.59/barrel respectively. However, EIA U.S. crude oil inventories continued to decline by 7.9 million barrels in the week ending July 9, and the rate of decline was essentially the same as the previous two weeks. The main reason for the fluctuation of oil prices in the past week is the expected change of supply and demand: on the supply side, the resumption of negotiations between the UAE and OPEC means that the production increase plan is expected to proceed smoothly (Saudi Arabia agreed to raise the UAE's production reduction benchmark in exchange for the UAE's agreement to increase the overall production reduction agreement from 2022). April extended to the end of that year); On the demand side, recent disturbances in COVID-19 pandemic and market concerns about the \"peak\" of the U.S. economy may make the market more cautious in judging crude oil demand to a certain extent.<b>In our report \"Will oil prices be the next\" grey rhinoceros \"?\", it is pointed out that supply constraints are the key to oil price trends in the second half of the year. At present, it is a high probability that the increase in shale oil production in the United States will be limited. In the future, we need to pay close attention to whether OPEC + can stick to its previous commitment to increase production. If there is no significant increase in production, international oil prices may fluctuate at a high level in the range of 70-80 US dollars/barrel in the second half of the year.</b></p><p>The prices of domestic black commodities (iron ore, rebar, thermal coal, etc.) have risen for 2-3 consecutive weeks. We reported in March \"Is the\" super cycle \"of commodities coming?\" It suggests the risk of a \"green bubble\", because behind the rise in copper prices, in addition to the real contradiction between supply and demand, there is also speculation and boost from the capital market. After a significant correction in mid-June, LME copper prices have recently remained within a narrow range of US $9,100-9,500/ton. At present, LME copper inventories have risen to a high level in nearly a year, and the shrinking of \"Biden infrastructure\" has also suppressed demand expectations. The tight copper supply and demand situation has shown some signs of easing.<b>In the future, market inflation expectations and risk appetite may also fall back from high levels, and it may be more difficult for copper prices to rise and may experience more fluctuations.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55e6ad7c58aefe649d33c4ac2321641d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/880f378ea54447226750849c934fe3a0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4</p><p><b>Foreign exchange market-the US Dollar Index hits new high since the second quarter</b></p><p>The US Dollar Index rose to 92.79 on July 13, surpassing the previous high of 92.72 on July 7 and setting a new high since April this year.<b>How to understand the relationship between the recent decline in U.S. bond yields and the appreciation of the U.S. dollar? We believe that we need to pay attention to the difference between vertical and horizontal comparisons of the U.S. economy.</b>Recently, the U.S. bond market is trading the \"peak\" of the U.S. economy, which is the main driving force behind the obvious decline of US Treasury yields. However, the recent epidemic situation in many places, including the United Kingdom, has counterattacked, and the economic prospects of non-US regions except the euro zone are still worrying. Therefore, the relative performance of the U.S. economy this year is still \"outstanding\", and the market's expectation of the strengthening of the U.S. dollar is also constantly strengthening. We continue to maintain the judgment that the US dollar is expected to strengthen in stages in the second half of the year (refer to our report \"The Next Step of the US dollar\"). In addition, there are some new changes to support the strength of the US dollar recently: after the European Central Bank adjusts its monetary policy decisions, the European Central Bank may further accelerate the expansion of its balance sheet and delay Taper. The difference in the monetary policy rhythm between the US and European central banks may further release the appreciation space of the US dollar against the euro. It is worth noting that the U.S. dollar has mainly depreciated against developed markets since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, and its value against emerging markets this year has been basically the same as that in the second half of 2019, which may mean that the room for currency depreciation in emerging markets is relatively limited. In the past week, Bitcoin prices have hit a new low since February this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09b6b3535060790986839dc811272b2a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0d2421b79d6ce17f8f080b339b33ea9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/476315\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4f265653009ef8be3e9588861c69d25","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/476315","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2152763544","content_text":"一、主题评论：鲍威尔证词里的“新信息”\n7月14日，美联储公布了主席鲍威尔将于7月15日向美国参议院银行、住房和城市事务委员会提交的证词，以及美联储半年度货币政策报告。\n整体而言，鲍威尔的讲话维持鸽派。这体现在：“标榜”宽松的货币政策对美国经济的积极影响，认为劳动力市场恢复还有很长的路要走，强调通胀率走高主要是基数效应与供应链瓶颈所致，不担心金融体系的脆弱性，以及强调美国经济尚未取得实施Taper所需的“实质性进一步进展”、Taper前会“提前通知”等。\n鲍威尔的证词公布后，市场亦感受到了熟悉的“鸽声”，6月美国通胀指标蹿升带来的市场恐慌稍有缓解。标普500指数盘中创新高，10年期美债收益率最深跌超5个基点，美元指数短线走低。值得注意的是，目前新西兰央行已经停止国债购买，加拿大央行已经开始实施Taper。我们认为，美联储仍在试图“不急转弯”，但未来一段时间如果美国就业市场如期恢复，通胀指标居高不下，加上外国央行“抢跑”，那么美联储的“借口”将更加不足，仍需警惕美联储政策转向比预期来得“更早”，或力度“更大”的风险。\n具体来看，鲍威尔证词中的重点信息包括：\n1）美国经济快速恢复，但供应链瓶颈对部分行业造成影响。鲍威尔认为，在2021年上半年，美国经济的重新开放和强劲的经济增长，一方面受新冠疫苗接种的帮助，另一方面也离不开宽松的货币和财政政策的支持。其中最明显的是，家庭支出正以特别快的速度增长，住房需求非常强劲，商业投资也在稳步增长。但与此同时，供应限制已经限制一些行业的活动，其中最明显的是汽车行业。今年迄今为止，全球半导体短缺已大幅削减了汽车行业的生产。\n2）劳动力市场状况持续改善，但仍有很长的路要走。鲍威尔认为，美国劳动力需求似乎非常强劲，目前职位空缺处于历史新高，招聘势头强劲，许多人离职而寻求更好的工作。4-6月美国雇主新增170万劳工。但是，6月美国失业率仍然高达5.9%，且这一数字还低估了就业恢复的不足，因劳动参与率仍然低迷。但随着疫情改善及其对就业的影响减少，未来几个月美国就业增长应该会强劲。此外，他还强调了低收入群体和有色人种的就业受影响更大，有待恢复。\n3）通胀率已经明显上升，且未来几月可能仍然居高不下，之后才会有所缓和。鲍威尔认为，第一是基数效应暂时推高通胀，第二是在需求旺盛的背景下，供给瓶颈导致某些商品和服务价格迅速上涨。但未来随着供应链瓶颈缓解，类似情况应会一定程度上得到逆转。近几个月，受疫情严重影响的服务价格也大幅上涨，因随着经济重新开放，服务业需求正在大幅上升。他强调美联储已经调整了货币政策框架，寻求将长期通胀预期稳定在2%，而衡量长期通胀预期的指标已从低点回升，目前处于与美联储长期通胀目标大致一致的区间。\n4）美联储尚不担心资产价格与金融体系脆弱性。鲍威尔表示，可持续地实现就业最大化和价格稳定取决于一个稳定的金融体系，因此美联储将继续监测金融体系的脆弱性。不过，尽管随着基本面改善和投资者风险偏好增强，各类资产估值普遍上升，但美国家庭资产负债表相当强劲，企业杠杆水平一直从高水平下降，处于金融体系核心的机构仍保持弹性。\n5）鲍威尔仍然否认经济已经取得“实质性进一步进展”，维持偏鸽论调。鲍威尔表示，“零利率”+资产购买的组合，加上对利率和资产负债表的“有力指导”，将确保货币政策继续为美国经济提供强有力的支持，直到复苏完成。其重申了6月FOMC会议的主要观点：对于利率调整而言，需要等到经济真正实现了最大就业和长期通胀目标；而对于资产购买，将至少维持现在的速度，直到取得“实质性进一步进展”（substantial further progress）。鲍威尔进一步透露，在6月议息会议上，委员会讨论了去年12月以来美国经济取得的进展，虽然距离达到“实质性进一步进展”的标准还有一段距离，但预计进展将继续下去。而美联储将在今后的会议中继续讨论这些问题。美联储将在宣布任何更改资产购买决定之前给出提前通知（provide advance notice）。\n二、海外经济跟踪\n1\n美国经济：6月通胀指标再创新高，非耐用品和服务消费逐渐起势\n美国6月CPI同比继续创新高，环比大涨0.9%，明显高于过去5年平均增速（0.2%左右）。分项看，大部分环比在加速，最“夸张”的是交通运输项环比大涨3.6%（前值2.1%），这仍是由于二手车价格的上涨。目前，比较难以判断二手车价格增速的拐点，下半年其对美国CPI仍可能带来超预期的拉动作用。\n\n美国6月PPI同比与环比增速也在创新高，所有分项环比均上涨，其中“贸易”分项环比大涨2.1%。近一个月，国际油价走高，不仅直接加大了能源品的成本压力，亦使国际运价上升以及美国进口商品价格大幅上涨。\n\n美国6月零售销售环比小幅上涨0.55%，好于预期和前值。零售销售的结构变化值得关注，“小件”销售好于“大件”，百货商店、服装配饰、食品饮料等销售连续上涨，而汽车、家具家装、建材物料等销售连续下滑。我们继续强调，下半年美国消费力量将由耐用品向非耐用品及服务转移，而服务消费是美国居民消费的大头，因此消费增长空间仍足。\n\n美国7月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值明显滑落。物价快速攀升以及对于美国经济边际放缓的预期，可能均一定程度上抑制了消费信心。不过，就业指标仍传递了乐观信号，截至7月3日当周，美国持续申请失业金人数显著下降12.6万人，至324.1万人，最新的初请失业金人数也继续下降。随着美国额外失业补贴的陆续到期，美国就业快速恢复仍是有希望的。\n\n2\n海外疫情与疫苗跟踪：全球新一波疫情来袭\n自6月下旬尤其7月以来，全球或正处于新一波疫情来临的起点。此前是印度疫情显著抬头并对全球经济造成了一定程度的威胁。但目前印度疫情已经逐渐缓和，而新一波疫情所波及的范围更大，目前很多地区受Delta病毒扰动，新增确诊重新上升。欧洲方面，英国疫情率先抬头，并开始逼近今年1月的高点，但英国将于7月19日全面解封（佩戴口罩、1米社交距离、居家办公、公共场所人员密度等限制将解除），这是一个值得关注的全球防疫政策的新动向。近一周法国新增确诊也出现了抬头迹象，德国、意大利等其他欧盟国家疫情尚稳定。日本疫情刚刚缓和不久，近一周又明显上升，奥运会举办在即，疫情风险受到全球关注。东南亚国家疫情“此消彼长”，近期是越南、泰国等国家显著恶化，相关股市亦受到明显冲击。以色列疫情也意外反扑，疫苗接种对于新病毒的效用可能“打折”。不过，进一步看英国疫情数据，疫苗接种在很大程度上降低了死亡率，未来新冠疫情会否像“流感”一样虽持续生存但影响可控，不是没有可能。但是，对全球疫情的担忧，一定程度上正在使近期资本市场风险偏好降温，再通胀交易受到质疑，值得继续关注。\n\n\n三、全球资产表现\n1\n全球股市——新兴市场反弹、发达市场回调\n新兴市场尤其亚洲新兴市场股市，因疫情反扑和“紧缩恐慌”的戒备之心，自6月下旬开始一直跑输发达市场。而近一周终于等到反弹，韩国、印度、中国台湾、墨西哥、中国（创业板和沪深300）、印尼、巴西等主要市场股指皆有上涨。与此同时，大部分发达市场股市回调，但美股道指（-0.5%）跌幅小于纳指（-1.9%），美股周期板块表现出更强韧性。\n越南股市近两周遭遇重创，7月14日越南胡志明指数较7月2日下跌了近10%。今年以来越南股市表现亮眼，7月以前基本维持单边上涨趋势，越南强劲的出口表现是市场信心的基石。据Vietnamplus报道，今年1-6月越南货物出口额同比增长28.4%。但需注意下半年外需边际放缓后越南市场可能出现的信心变化。7月5日、11日和16日越南单日新增确诊数分别破1000、2000和4000例，而今年5月以前该数字均未超过100。疫情陡然升温应是这次股市调整的导火索。\n2\n全球债市——10年美债实际利率跌破-1%\n近一周，长端美债收益率继续下降，7年期及以上美债收益率整周跌4-6bp。10年美债收益率整周跌6bp，至1.31%，其中10年TIPS（实际）利率跌11bp，至-1.02%，隐含通胀预期升5bp，至2.33%。7月15日，10年TIPS利率跌破-1%，创2月12日以来新低。近期10年美债收益率降至此前难以想象的低位，主因是市场对于美国经济前景信心不足：一方面，美国财政计划规模打折，拉低了市场对美国的中长期通胀预期。且通胀指标虽然仍然短期“爆表”，但由于通胀预期已经处于历史高位，市场很难继续大幅押注。而疫苗接种速度放缓、变异病毒扰动等因素。加剧了市场对于下半年“群体免疫”能否实现，经济活动能否按时重启的担忧，致使美债实际利率明显下滑。前期市场已经很大程度上将乐观预期纳入资产定价，造就了不断创新高的美股和美国公司债，近期市场无疑正在经历预期上的巨大变化。全球债市方面，大部分地区10y国债/公债继续随美债走牛，但泰国、马来西亚等地区因疫情急剧恶化、国债收益率上升。\n\n\n3\n商品市场——油价回落，黑色系连涨，农产品反弹\n近一周，国际油价明显回调，WTI原油和布伦特原油期货价整周分别跌3.7%和2.6%，分别收于71.81和73.59美元/桶。然而，截至7月9日当周，EIA美国原油库存继续下降790万桶，下降速度与前两周基本持平。近一周油价波动的主因是供给和需求预期变化：供给方面，阿联酋与OPEC恢复谈判意味着增产计划有望顺利进行（沙特同意将阿联酋的减产基准调高，以换取阿联酋同意将整体减产协议从2022年4月延长至当年年底）；需求方面，近期新冠疫情扰动以及市场对于美国经济“见顶”的担忧，都可能一定程度上使市场对原油需求的判断更加谨慎。我们在报告《油价会不会是下一个“灰犀牛”？》中指出，供给约束是下半年油价走势之关键。目前，美国页岩油增产受限是大概率，未来需密切关注OPEC+能否坚守前期增产承诺。假如未出现大幅增产，则下半年国际油价可能在70-80美元/桶区间高位震荡。\n国内黑色系商品（铁矿石、螺纹钢、动力煤等）价格连续2-3周上涨。我们在3月报告《大宗商品的“超级周期”来了吗？》提示了“绿色泡沫”的风险，因铜价涨价背后，除了真实供需矛盾外，还有来自资本市场的炒作与助推。LME铜价自6月中旬显著回调后，近期保持在9100-9500美元/吨内窄幅震荡。目前，LME铜库存升至近一年以来的高位，“拜登基建”缩水亦对需求预期形成打压，铜供需紧张的局面出现一些缓解迹象。未来一段时间，市场通胀预期与风险偏好亦可能于高位回落，铜价上行或更加困难，可能经历更多波动。\n4\n外汇市场——美元指数创2季度以来新高\n7月13日美元指数升至92.79，超过7月7日92.72的前期高点，创下今年4月以来的新高。如何理解近期美债收益率下降与美元升值的关系？我们认为，需要注意美国经济纵向和横向比较的区别。近期，美债市场正在交易美国经济“见顶”，这是美债利率明显回落的主要驱动力量。然而，近期包括英国在内的多地疫情反扑，除欧元区外的非美地区经济前景仍然堪忧。因此，美国经济在今年的相对表现仍然是“一枝独秀”的，市场对于美元阶段走强的预期也在不断强化。我们继续维持下半年美元有望阶段性走强的判断（参考我们报告《美元下一步》）。此外，最近还有一些新的变化支撑美元走强：欧洲央行调整货币政策决策后，欧洲央行可能进一步加快扩表，并延缓Taper，美欧央行货币政策节奏的差异，可能令美元兑欧元的升值空间进一步释放。值得注意的是，美元自新冠疫情爆发以来主要是对发达市场贬值，而今年以来对新兴市场的价值基本持平于2019年下半年水平，这或意味着新兴市场货币贬值的空间是相对有限的。近一周，比特币价格触碰今年2月以来新低。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SH":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"OEX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"QID":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"UDOW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2610,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170732516,"gmtCreate":1626450333435,"gmtModify":1703760510873,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"尤大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170732516","repostId":"1135978719","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2589,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147983766,"gmtCreate":1626327278155,"gmtModify":1703757967717,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"尤大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/147983766","repostId":"1162961337","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1162961337","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626327106,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162961337?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-15 13:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"TSMC's second-quarter net profit of $4.798 billion fell slightly short of estimates","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162961337","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"台积电：2021年Q2 营收（亿美元）：132.89，预期：131.67，前值：103.85\n第二季度净利润（亿美元）：47.98亿，预期：48.31，前值：40.38。\n第二季度每ADS盈利0.39","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>: 2021 Q2 revenue (US $billion):<b>132.89，</b>Expected: 131.67, Previous: 103.85</p><p>Second quarter net income ($billion):<b>4.798 billion,</b>Expected: 48.31, previous value: 40.38.</p><p>Earnings per ADS were $0.39 in the second quarter, compared with $0.78 in the year-ago quarter.</p><p>In the second quarter, 7nm process revenue accounted for 31%, and 5nm process revenue accounted for 18%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86b7b6bd434948211dea69ece047b9ae\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>TSMC's second-quarter net profit of $4.798 billion fell slightly short of estimates</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTSMC's second-quarter net profit of $4.798 billion fell slightly short of estimates\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-15 13:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>: 2021 Q2 revenue (US $billion):<b>132.89，</b>Expected: 131.67, Previous: 103.85</p><p>Second quarter net income ($billion):<b>4.798 billion,</b>Expected: 48.31, previous value: 40.38.</p><p>Earnings per ADS were $0.39 in the second quarter, compared with $0.78 in the year-ago quarter.</p><p>In the second quarter, 7nm process revenue accounted for 31%, and 5nm process revenue accounted for 18%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86b7b6bd434948211dea69ece047b9ae\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/975836d8c6eb511241583dccb0d387f2","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162961337","content_text":"台积电：2021年Q2 营收（亿美元）：132.89，预期：131.67，前值：103.85\n第二季度净利润（亿美元）：47.98亿，预期：48.31，前值：40.38。\n第二季度每ADS盈利0.39美元，去年同期0.78美元。\n第二季度7nm制程营收占比31%，5nm制程营收占比18%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1620,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145381717,"gmtCreate":1626189909739,"gmtModify":1703755270342,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"尤大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/145381717","repostId":"1177979098","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177979098","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626144738,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177979098?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-13 10:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tesla: The worst scolded, the most sold car","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177979098","media":"霞光社 ","summary":"特斯拉总有一种魔力，让恨它的人毫无办法，爱它的人趋之若鹜。","content":"<p>Text/Zhaochuan</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>There is always a magic that makes those who hate it helpless, and those who love it flock to it.</p><p>The aftermath of the rights protection incident at the Shanghai Auto Show in April this year is still there. Coupled with the large-scale recall caused by active cruise control system problems in late June, the quality mystery of Tesla electric vehicles seems to be getting deeper and deeper. Many evaluation agencies predict that Tesla's short-term sales and delivery data will be ugly.</p><p>However, on July 2, Tesla released global production and sales data for the second quarter of this year, showing that its output in the second quarter of this year reached 206,421 units and its delivery volume was 201,250 units. Compared with the data of the same period last year, they increased by 150.9% and 121.42% respectively, breaking through the historical record again.</p><p>With the global production and sales of more than 200,000 units, Tesla not only achieved its previous target, but also once rose to US $700 after the stock market opened that day.</p><p>On the one hand, the brand image has been greatly reduced, but on the other hand, the sales volume has broken a new high. Where is the charm of Tesla?</p><p><b>Tesla holds future dividends</b></p><p>Musk said, \"Traditional car companies will no longer exist in the future.\"</p><p>\"If you have never driven a Tesla car, it is really difficult to have an intuitive imagination. This car is all<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>How cool the car is. \" Xiaomi Lei Jun made no secret of his admiration for Tesla after his first test drive.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>He XPeng, the founder of Tesla, was also a loyal fan of Tesla and bought 4 Teslas before and after.</p><p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">Weibo</a>A blogger named \"Ji Yongfeng\" strongly suggested that all OEMs drive smart trams for a lap. Only by experiencing long distances in depth can we understand that smart driving is a dimensionality reduction blow to traditional fuel vehicles: \"It is the fierce people in Silicon Valley who have revolutionized Detroit.\" Although domestic new energy vehicle competing products are increasing day by day, and traditional automakers such as General Motors, Ford and Volkswagen are also penetrating the electric vehicle market, most of the competing products only replace the original fuel burning with electricity consumption, rather than being really committed to building smart terminals like Tesla.</p><p>In terms of practicality, Tesla also has great advantages compared with fuel vehicles and competing electric vehicles in the same price range. Take Tesla's main models Model 3 and Model Y as examples. Model 3 has higher maximum power and torque, its power performance is not weak, and it can accelerate from 100 kilometers to 100 kilometers without losing that of fuel vehicles. The active safety system of Model 3 is standard, and the Autopilot automatic assisted driving function package can also be optionally equipped, which has gained many loyal users. The price of Model Y has been reduced all the way, from 480,000 to 330,000. There are almost no competing electric vehicles at the same price. With its advanced concept and high cost performance, coupled with its advantages in comfort, safety, brand, and price, Tesla is still the first choice for electric vehicles for a large number of people.</p><p>Tesla's intelligent driving is not a business story, but a potential future dividend.</p><p>Since 2020, despite the impact of the global epidemic and the stagnation of industrial production, Tesla's global sales have still reached 458,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 50.4%. In the first quarter of this year, Tesla produced 180,338 vehicles and delivered 184,800 vehicles. In the first half of the year, the cumulative global vehicle production reached 386,759 vehicles. From the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, Tesla's global delivery data has been rising all the way. In the third and fourth quarters of last year, there were 121,000 vehicles and 1.65 billion vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 56.6% and 78.2%. In the first quarter of this year, Tesla sold 184,800 vehicles, breaking through historical records continuously. Under such a trend, Tesla's sales volume of 200,000 in the second quarter broke the record, which is reasonable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/937cf845fda952808dcc9a6f73bdeecc\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The United States and China are Tesla's two largest sales markets at present. Although the U.S. market is still the main force, China's potential market cannot be underestimated. According to Tesla's 2020 sales data, Tesla sold 206,000 vehicles in the United States last year, a year-on-year increase of only 14.9%. Sales in the Chinese market were 137,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 203%. It can be said that nearly one-third of Tesla's sales last year were contributed by the Chinese market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0200183ab4b56f9ec2380997cb521a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As the production capacity of the Shanghai Gigafactory ramps up, the price range of Model 3 and Model Y has sunk to about 300,000 yuan. Tesla electric vehicles have gradually evolved from policy-oriented to consumption-driven in the Chinese market. In the first quarter of 2021, Tesla's delivery volume in the Chinese market reached 69,000 vehicles, accounting for 37% of its total global sales. In the second quarter, sales in China reached 25,845 vehicles in April and 33,463 vehicles in May. In April and May alone, there were a total of 59,000 vehicles sold.</p><p>Compulsory traffic insurance data shows that 64.7% of Tesla's 139,000 vehicles licensed nationwide in 2020 are from Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Beijing. The license restriction policy of domestic megacities and the new energy vehicle support strategy are one of the factors behind Tesla's continuous opening up of the domestic market. According to data from Shanghai Securities News, Tesla's industry penetration rate in China has increased from 1.3% in 2015 to 9.4% in May this year. The electric vehicle industry has entered a period of accelerated growth, which directly brings about a large increase in production and sales..</p><p><b>Sales cut in half in April, due to the word-of-mouth crisis?</b></p><p>In February of this year, Musk once said that \"during the climbing mass production stage, it is difficult for Tesla to guarantee that all details will be fine.\" Tesla itself has also realized that in the context of rapid growth in production and sales, quality control will become its hidden thunder point.</p><p>On April 19, at the opening ceremony of the Shanghai Auto Show, the female car owner who defended rights shouted \"Tesla's brakes failed.\" At the next level of public relations, Tesla was obviously not fully prepared. Tao Lin, its vice president of external affairs, said that \"Tesla has no way to compromise\", which made almost all public opinion turn to the side of criticism. Coupled with the frequent Tesla accidents in the first quarter, Tesla owners in Shenzhen in April were unable to control their vehicles due to sudden acceleration of their vehicles<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>Collision, and on May 30, another Tesla owner was locked in his car because he couldn't open the door. With a series of negative news, consumers are increasingly questioning Tesla.</p><p>According to data from the Passenger Car Association, Tesla sold 25,845 vehicles in April, a month-on-month decrease of 27%. Credit Suisse's research report shows that in China, Tesla's market share has dropped from 19% to 8%. At the same time, domestic electric vehicles were ideal,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>, XPeng's sales remained stable.</p><p>As a result, Tesla's sales in China were \"halved\" in April, which is considered to be related to its public relations mistakes. Under the extremely negative public opinion situation, Tesla's next sales situation will not be optimistic.</p><p>However, Tesla's sales in North America and Europe also showed a decline in April. According to data from EV Sales, Tesla Model 3 sold only 1,244 units in the European market in April this year, a month-on-month decrease of 95%. Sales in the North American market fell by 16.23% month-on-month. The stock price fell to US $617 per share, and the market value shrank by 270 billion. Obviously, the decline in Tesla's sales in foreign markets has little to do with the negative domestic public opinion environment.</p><p>Tesla attributed the decline in global sales in April to the two-week suspension of production due to the \"core shortage\" dilemma, which was an occasional short-term disturbance. The official explanation for this is, \"Because the Model Y production line of Shanghai Gigafactory was suspended for two weeks in April to upgrade production line equipment, sales also fluctuated.\"</p><p>From another perspective, the public opinion crisis triggered by the Shanghai Auto Show occurred at the end of April, so it is extremely unlikely that Tesla's domestic and foreign sales in April will be affected by it. The delivery cycle of Tesla vehicles is about January. Even if the order volume drops sharply or a large number of orders are cancelled, the data will not be displayed until May-June, and there will be no such an immediate decline in sales.</p><p><b>What will Tesla rely on to survive?</b></p><p>Although the decline in Tesla's sales in April has nothing to do with the direction of public opinion, this does not mean that Tesla is \"safe\".</p><p>In terms of sales volume, Tesla sold 25,845 vehicles and 33,463 vehicles in the Chinese market in April and May respectively. However, in terms of order volume, Tesla's order volume in May was only 9,800 vehicles, compared with 18,000 vehicles in April. The vehicle has shrunk by more than 45%. Since Tesla's delivery cycle will be postponed by one month, the consequences of the decline in order volume have not yet appeared in the production and sales data of the first two quarters.</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">SINA</a>According to science and technology reports, Tao Lin, vice president of Tesla's external affairs, held an internal media expert seminar in the office of Beijing Huamao Center on June 5th not long ago. Tesla's reputation repair and brand communication.</p><p>In fact, after the rights protection incident at the Shanghai Auto Show at the end of April, Tesla also made corresponding public relations. At the most intense time of public opinion discussion (the afternoon of April 22nd), Tesla announced the vehicle data 1 minute before the Anyang brake accident to China Market Supervision News, plus a text description. The data shows that when the driver last stepped on the brakes, the vehicle speed was 118.5 km/h, which was obviously speeding. Later, Tesla also made an explanation to Xi'an car owners who were also defending their rights at the Shanghai Auto Show, stating that their airbags did not deploy because they were turning left at a low speed and had not yet reached the airbag deployment threshold.</p><p>In response to the question of \"Tesla's invasion of personal privacy\", Tesla has established a data center in China, and all Tesla vehicle data in the mainland market will be stored in China, with the aim of eliminating privacy issues.</p><p>In late June, at the request of the State Administration for Market Regulation, Tesla urgently recalled nearly 280,000 electric vehicles, including 246,921 Model 3 and 38,599 Model Y. Tesla adopted remote vehicle upgrade (OTA) technology, to urgently upgrade the active cruise control software for these recalled vehicles free of charge, to a certain extent, once again improving users' trust in the safety of Tesla vehicles.</p><p>Another problem that has plagued Tesla for a long time is the shortage of chips. Musk said, \"Our biggest challenge at present is the supply chain, especially microcontroller chips.\" Because of concerns about the shortage of chips, almost every company is over-ordering and hoarding chips. In April this year, the production and sales of the Shanghai Gigafactory stagnated, which is also due to poor chip supply. Although the Passenger Car Association stated that the contradiction between supply and demand of chips will improve after July this year and the production capacity will be fully released in September, the shortage of chip supply is still inevitable in the short term.</p><p>On the two fronts of brand image reconstruction and technology, Tesla has made many \"life-extending\" tricks. However, after May and June, the decline in domestic market orders and the short-term chip supply pressure have not yet been alleviated. It will still put pressure on Tesla's production and sales in the third quarter. Although Tesla's sales exceeded 200,000 vehicles in the second quarter, for Tesla, strength and crisis still coexist.</p>","source":"lsy1601451636609","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: The worst scolded, the most sold car</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: The worst scolded, the most sold car\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">霞光社 </strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-13 10:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Text/Zhaochuan</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>There is always a magic that makes those who hate it helpless, and those who love it flock to it.</p><p>The aftermath of the rights protection incident at the Shanghai Auto Show in April this year is still there. Coupled with the large-scale recall caused by active cruise control system problems in late June, the quality mystery of Tesla electric vehicles seems to be getting deeper and deeper. Many evaluation agencies predict that Tesla's short-term sales and delivery data will be ugly.</p><p>However, on July 2, Tesla released global production and sales data for the second quarter of this year, showing that its output in the second quarter of this year reached 206,421 units and its delivery volume was 201,250 units. Compared with the data of the same period last year, they increased by 150.9% and 121.42% respectively, breaking through the historical record again.</p><p>With the global production and sales of more than 200,000 units, Tesla not only achieved its previous target, but also once rose to US $700 after the stock market opened that day.</p><p>On the one hand, the brand image has been greatly reduced, but on the other hand, the sales volume has broken a new high. Where is the charm of Tesla?</p><p><b>Tesla holds future dividends</b></p><p>Musk said, \"Traditional car companies will no longer exist in the future.\"</p><p>\"If you have never driven a Tesla car, it is really difficult to have an intuitive imagination. This car is all<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>How cool the car is. \" Xiaomi Lei Jun made no secret of his admiration for Tesla after his first test drive.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>He XPeng, the founder of Tesla, was also a loyal fan of Tesla and bought 4 Teslas before and after.</p><p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">Weibo</a>A blogger named \"Ji Yongfeng\" strongly suggested that all OEMs drive smart trams for a lap. Only by experiencing long distances in depth can we understand that smart driving is a dimensionality reduction blow to traditional fuel vehicles: \"It is the fierce people in Silicon Valley who have revolutionized Detroit.\" Although domestic new energy vehicle competing products are increasing day by day, and traditional automakers such as General Motors, Ford and Volkswagen are also penetrating the electric vehicle market, most of the competing products only replace the original fuel burning with electricity consumption, rather than being really committed to building smart terminals like Tesla.</p><p>In terms of practicality, Tesla also has great advantages compared with fuel vehicles and competing electric vehicles in the same price range. Take Tesla's main models Model 3 and Model Y as examples. Model 3 has higher maximum power and torque, its power performance is not weak, and it can accelerate from 100 kilometers to 100 kilometers without losing that of fuel vehicles. The active safety system of Model 3 is standard, and the Autopilot automatic assisted driving function package can also be optionally equipped, which has gained many loyal users. The price of Model Y has been reduced all the way, from 480,000 to 330,000. There are almost no competing electric vehicles at the same price. With its advanced concept and high cost performance, coupled with its advantages in comfort, safety, brand, and price, Tesla is still the first choice for electric vehicles for a large number of people.</p><p>Tesla's intelligent driving is not a business story, but a potential future dividend.</p><p>Since 2020, despite the impact of the global epidemic and the stagnation of industrial production, Tesla's global sales have still reached 458,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 50.4%. In the first quarter of this year, Tesla produced 180,338 vehicles and delivered 184,800 vehicles. In the first half of the year, the cumulative global vehicle production reached 386,759 vehicles. From the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, Tesla's global delivery data has been rising all the way. In the third and fourth quarters of last year, there were 121,000 vehicles and 1.65 billion vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 56.6% and 78.2%. In the first quarter of this year, Tesla sold 184,800 vehicles, breaking through historical records continuously. Under such a trend, Tesla's sales volume of 200,000 in the second quarter broke the record, which is reasonable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/937cf845fda952808dcc9a6f73bdeecc\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The United States and China are Tesla's two largest sales markets at present. Although the U.S. market is still the main force, China's potential market cannot be underestimated. According to Tesla's 2020 sales data, Tesla sold 206,000 vehicles in the United States last year, a year-on-year increase of only 14.9%. Sales in the Chinese market were 137,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 203%. It can be said that nearly one-third of Tesla's sales last year were contributed by the Chinese market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0200183ab4b56f9ec2380997cb521a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As the production capacity of the Shanghai Gigafactory ramps up, the price range of Model 3 and Model Y has sunk to about 300,000 yuan. Tesla electric vehicles have gradually evolved from policy-oriented to consumption-driven in the Chinese market. In the first quarter of 2021, Tesla's delivery volume in the Chinese market reached 69,000 vehicles, accounting for 37% of its total global sales. In the second quarter, sales in China reached 25,845 vehicles in April and 33,463 vehicles in May. In April and May alone, there were a total of 59,000 vehicles sold.</p><p>Compulsory traffic insurance data shows that 64.7% of Tesla's 139,000 vehicles licensed nationwide in 2020 are from Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Beijing. The license restriction policy of domestic megacities and the new energy vehicle support strategy are one of the factors behind Tesla's continuous opening up of the domestic market. According to data from Shanghai Securities News, Tesla's industry penetration rate in China has increased from 1.3% in 2015 to 9.4% in May this year. The electric vehicle industry has entered a period of accelerated growth, which directly brings about a large increase in production and sales..</p><p><b>Sales cut in half in April, due to the word-of-mouth crisis?</b></p><p>In February of this year, Musk once said that \"during the climbing mass production stage, it is difficult for Tesla to guarantee that all details will be fine.\" Tesla itself has also realized that in the context of rapid growth in production and sales, quality control will become its hidden thunder point.</p><p>On April 19, at the opening ceremony of the Shanghai Auto Show, the female car owner who defended rights shouted \"Tesla's brakes failed.\" At the next level of public relations, Tesla was obviously not fully prepared. Tao Lin, its vice president of external affairs, said that \"Tesla has no way to compromise\", which made almost all public opinion turn to the side of criticism. Coupled with the frequent Tesla accidents in the first quarter, Tesla owners in Shenzhen in April were unable to control their vehicles due to sudden acceleration of their vehicles<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>Collision, and on May 30, another Tesla owner was locked in his car because he couldn't open the door. With a series of negative news, consumers are increasingly questioning Tesla.</p><p>According to data from the Passenger Car Association, Tesla sold 25,845 vehicles in April, a month-on-month decrease of 27%. Credit Suisse's research report shows that in China, Tesla's market share has dropped from 19% to 8%. At the same time, domestic electric vehicles were ideal,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>, XPeng's sales remained stable.</p><p>As a result, Tesla's sales in China were \"halved\" in April, which is considered to be related to its public relations mistakes. Under the extremely negative public opinion situation, Tesla's next sales situation will not be optimistic.</p><p>However, Tesla's sales in North America and Europe also showed a decline in April. According to data from EV Sales, Tesla Model 3 sold only 1,244 units in the European market in April this year, a month-on-month decrease of 95%. Sales in the North American market fell by 16.23% month-on-month. The stock price fell to US $617 per share, and the market value shrank by 270 billion. Obviously, the decline in Tesla's sales in foreign markets has little to do with the negative domestic public opinion environment.</p><p>Tesla attributed the decline in global sales in April to the two-week suspension of production due to the \"core shortage\" dilemma, which was an occasional short-term disturbance. The official explanation for this is, \"Because the Model Y production line of Shanghai Gigafactory was suspended for two weeks in April to upgrade production line equipment, sales also fluctuated.\"</p><p>From another perspective, the public opinion crisis triggered by the Shanghai Auto Show occurred at the end of April, so it is extremely unlikely that Tesla's domestic and foreign sales in April will be affected by it. The delivery cycle of Tesla vehicles is about January. Even if the order volume drops sharply or a large number of orders are cancelled, the data will not be displayed until May-June, and there will be no such an immediate decline in sales.</p><p><b>What will Tesla rely on to survive?</b></p><p>Although the decline in Tesla's sales in April has nothing to do with the direction of public opinion, this does not mean that Tesla is \"safe\".</p><p>In terms of sales volume, Tesla sold 25,845 vehicles and 33,463 vehicles in the Chinese market in April and May respectively. However, in terms of order volume, Tesla's order volume in May was only 9,800 vehicles, compared with 18,000 vehicles in April. The vehicle has shrunk by more than 45%. Since Tesla's delivery cycle will be postponed by one month, the consequences of the decline in order volume have not yet appeared in the production and sales data of the first two quarters.</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">SINA</a>According to science and technology reports, Tao Lin, vice president of Tesla's external affairs, held an internal media expert seminar in the office of Beijing Huamao Center on June 5th not long ago. Tesla's reputation repair and brand communication.</p><p>In fact, after the rights protection incident at the Shanghai Auto Show at the end of April, Tesla also made corresponding public relations. At the most intense time of public opinion discussion (the afternoon of April 22nd), Tesla announced the vehicle data 1 minute before the Anyang brake accident to China Market Supervision News, plus a text description. The data shows that when the driver last stepped on the brakes, the vehicle speed was 118.5 km/h, which was obviously speeding. Later, Tesla also made an explanation to Xi'an car owners who were also defending their rights at the Shanghai Auto Show, stating that their airbags did not deploy because they were turning left at a low speed and had not yet reached the airbag deployment threshold.</p><p>In response to the question of \"Tesla's invasion of personal privacy\", Tesla has established a data center in China, and all Tesla vehicle data in the mainland market will be stored in China, with the aim of eliminating privacy issues.</p><p>In late June, at the request of the State Administration for Market Regulation, Tesla urgently recalled nearly 280,000 electric vehicles, including 246,921 Model 3 and 38,599 Model Y. Tesla adopted remote vehicle upgrade (OTA) technology, to urgently upgrade the active cruise control software for these recalled vehicles free of charge, to a certain extent, once again improving users' trust in the safety of Tesla vehicles.</p><p>Another problem that has plagued Tesla for a long time is the shortage of chips. Musk said, \"Our biggest challenge at present is the supply chain, especially microcontroller chips.\" Because of concerns about the shortage of chips, almost every company is over-ordering and hoarding chips. In April this year, the production and sales of the Shanghai Gigafactory stagnated, which is also due to poor chip supply. Although the Passenger Car Association stated that the contradiction between supply and demand of chips will improve after July this year and the production capacity will be fully released in September, the shortage of chip supply is still inevitable in the short term.</p><p>On the two fronts of brand image reconstruction and technology, Tesla has made many \"life-extending\" tricks. However, after May and June, the decline in domestic market orders and the short-term chip supply pressure have not yet been alleviated. It will still put pressure on Tesla's production and sales in the third quarter. Although Tesla's sales exceeded 200,000 vehicles in the second quarter, for Tesla, strength and crisis still coexist.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_B9EnGXz6_aLOLwI4vOkfA\">霞光社 </a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc2380e49712ca8305dbdb806526f888","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_B9EnGXz6_aLOLwI4vOkfA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177979098","content_text":"文/照川\n特斯拉总有一种魔力，让恨它的人毫无办法，爱它的人趋之若鹜。\n今年4月上海车展的维权事件余波犹在，再加上6月下旬因主动巡航控制系统问题引发的大规模召回事件，特斯拉电车的质量疑团似乎越陷越深。许多评估机构预计，特斯拉短期销量、交付量数据将很难看。\n但是7月2日，特斯拉发布了今年第二季度的全球产销数据显示，今年二季度其产量达206421台，交付量201250台。比起去年同期的数据，分别增长了150.9%和121.42%，再次突破历史记录。\n全球超20万台的产销量，让特斯拉不仅完成了此前的预定目标，当日股市开盘后还一度升至700美元。\n一面品牌形象大打折扣，另一面却销量再破新高。特斯拉的魅力，究竟在哪儿？\n特斯拉，掌握着未来红利\n马斯克说，“未来传统车企将不复存在”。\n“如果你没开过Tesla汽车，确实很难有一个直观的想象，这辆全智能的车有多酷。”小米雷军在第一次试驾特斯拉后，毫不掩饰对它的崇拜。小鹏汽车的创始人何小鹏也曾经是特斯拉的忠实粉丝，前后买过4辆特斯拉。\n在微博上，一位叫“姬永锋”的博主强烈建议各家OEM厂商都开上智能电车跑一圈，只有长距离深度感受，才能明白智能驾驶对传统燃油车来说，是一种降维打击：“革底特律命的是硅谷这帮猛人。”虽然国内新能源造车竞品日渐增长，通用、福特和大众等传统汽车制造商也在渗透电车市场，但竞品大多只是将原本的烧油换成耗电，而非真正像特斯拉一样，致力于打造智能终端。\n从实用性上，特斯拉和同价位的燃油车、竞品电动车相比，也存在极大优势。以特斯拉主力车型Model 3和Model Y为例，Model 3有更高的最大功率和扭矩，动力性能不弱，百公里加速不输燃油车。Model 3的主动安全系统属于标配，还能选装 Autopilot 自动辅助驾驶功能包，收获了很多忠实用户。Model Y则一路降价，从48万降到33万，同样的价位几乎不存在竞品电动车。超前理念和较高性价比，加上舒适、安全、品牌、价位等优势，让特斯拉还是极大一部分人的电车首选。\n特斯拉的智能驾驶，并非商业故事，而是潜在的未来红利。\n2020年以来，虽然面临着全球疫情影响，工业生产停滞，但特斯拉全球销量依然达到了45.8万辆，同比增长 50.4%。今年第一季度特斯拉生产180338辆，交付量达到184800辆，上半年全球汽车累计产量达到了 386759 辆。从去年第二季度，到今年第二季度，特斯拉的全球交付量数据一路走高。去年第三季度、第四季度的121000辆、165000万辆，同比增长56.6%和 78.2%，今年一季度特斯拉销量184800辆，连续突破历史记录。在这样的趋势下，特斯拉二季度20万销量破纪录，本就在情理之中。\n\n美国本土和中国，是特斯拉目前最大的两个销售市场。虽然美国市场仍是主力，但中国的潜在市场不可小觑。据特斯拉2020年销售数据显示，去年特斯拉美国销量20.6万辆，同比增长只有14.9%。中国市场销量为13.7万辆，同比增长却达到了203%，可以说特斯拉去年有近三分之一的销量是中国市场贡献的。\n\n随着上海超级工厂的产能爬坡，Model 3和Model Y价格区间下沉至30万元左右，特斯拉电动车在中国市场从政策导向，逐渐演变为消费驱动。2021年1季度，特斯拉在中国市场的交付量就达到了6.9万辆，占其全球总销量的37%。二季度4月中国销量达到25845辆，5月销量达到33463辆，光是4、5月就共有5.9万的辆销售量。\n交强险数据显示，在特斯拉2020年全国上牌的13.9 万辆中，有64.7%是来自于上海、广东、浙江、北京四个省市。国内特大城市的限牌政策和新能源车扶持战略，是特斯拉国内市场不断打开的因素之一。上海证券报数据表明，特斯拉在中国的行业渗透率，已经从2015年的1.3%，提升到了今年5月的9.4%，电动车行业进入加速增长期，直接带来的就是产销量大增。\n4月销量腰斩，源于口碑危机？\n今年2月，马斯克曾经说过“在爬坡量产阶段，特斯拉很难保证所有细节都不出问题”。特斯拉自己也意识到了，在产销量高速增长的背景下，质量控制将成为其隐藏雷点。\n4月19日，上海车展开幕式上，维权女车主大喊“特斯拉刹车失灵”。在接下来的公关层面，特斯拉显然没有做好充分的准备，其对外事务副总裁陶琳的一句“特斯拉没有办法妥协”，让舆论几乎全部倒向了对其批评的一面。再加上一季度特斯拉事故频发，4月深圳的特斯拉车主因车辆突然加速，无法控制与一辆比亚迪相撞，5月30日，又有一位特斯拉车主因无法打开车门而被锁车内。一系列的负面新闻，消费者对特斯拉的质疑声浪越来越高。\n乘联会数据显示，特斯拉4月的销量是25845辆，环比下降了27%。瑞信的研报显示，在中国，特斯拉的市场占有率已经从19%下降到了8%。而同时期国产电动车理想、蔚来、小鹏的销量都保持稳定。\n于是，特斯拉4月中国销量“腰斩”，被认为与其公关失误有关，在极其负面的舆论形势下，特斯拉接下来的销售状况将不容乐观。\n不过，4月特斯拉在北美和欧洲市场的销量，也显示下滑。根据EV Sales的数据，今年4月特斯拉Model 3在欧洲市场仅售出1244台，环比下跌95%。北美市场销量环比下跌16.23%。股价跌到了617美元/股，市值缩水2700亿。很明显，特斯拉在国外市场的销量下滑，和国内负面的舆论环境关系不大。\n特斯拉方面把4月全球销量的下滑，归结为因面临“缺芯”困境，停产两周，属于偶发性短期扰动。对此官方解释是，“因为上海超级工厂Model Y生产线曾在4月份停产两周以升级产线设备，销量也因此产生波动。”\n从另一角度看，上海车展引发的舆论危机发生于4月底，所以特斯拉4月国内外的销量受其影响可能性极小。特斯拉车辆交付周期大概在一月左右，哪怕是订单量锐减或是大量订单被取消，数据要等到5-6月之后才能有所显示，不会出现如此立竿见影的销量下滑。\n特斯拉将靠什么续命\n虽然4月特斯拉销量下滑与舆论导向无关，但这并不意味着特斯拉就此“安全”了。\n从销售量来看，特斯拉4月和5月在中国市场销量分别为25845辆和33463辆，但从订单量来看，特斯拉5月订单量只有9800辆，比4月的18000辆缩减了45%以上。由于特斯拉交付周期要向后顺延一月，所以订单量下滑的后果，在前两季度的产销数据中暂时还未显现。\n据新浪科技报道称，特斯拉对外事务副总裁陶琳曾经于前不久的6月5日，在北京华贸中心的办公室召开过一个内部的媒体专家探讨会，主要目的就是研究当下格局下，特斯拉的声誉修复与品牌传播。\n事实上，在4月底的上海车展维权事件后，特斯拉方面也做出了相应公关。在舆论讨论最激烈的时点（4月22日下午），特斯拉向《中国市场监管报》公布了安阳刹车事故前1分钟的车辆数据，外加一份文字说明。数据显示驾驶员最后一次踩下刹车时，车辆时速为118.5km/h，明显超速。随后特斯拉又对同样在上海车展维权的西安车主，也做出了情况说明，声明其安全气囊未弹出，是由于当时是低速左转，尚未达到气囊弹出阈值。\n针对“特斯拉侵犯个人隐私”质疑，特斯拉已经建立了中国的数据中心，所有大陆市场的特斯拉车辆数据，都将存放在境内，目的在于消除隐私层面的问题。\n6月下旬，在国家市场监督管理总局的要求下，特斯拉紧急召回了近28万辆电动车，包括246921辆Model 3和38599辆Model Y，特斯拉通过汽车远程升级（OTA）技术，为这些召回车辆紧急免费提升主动巡航控制软件，一定程度上再次提高用户对特斯拉车辆安全性的信任程度。\n另一长期困扰特斯拉的，是芯片的短缺问题。马斯克说，“目前我们最大的挑战是供应链，尤其是微控制器芯片。”因为担心芯片供不应求，几乎每家公司都在超量订购囤积芯片，今年4月上海超级工厂的产销量停滞，也是因为芯片供应不畅导致。虽然乘联会表示，芯片的供需矛盾将会在今年7月之后有所改善，9月产能完全释放，但短期内芯片供应短缺仍不可避免。\n在品牌形象重建和技术层面两条战线上，特斯拉已经出了不少“续命”招数，但5、6月后国内市场订单量下滑、短期芯片供应压力又尚未得到缓解，还是会对特斯拉第三季度的产销造成压力。虽然特斯拉第二季度销量突破20万辆，但对于特斯拉来说，仍然是实力与危机并存。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1042,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148302311,"gmtCreate":1625925546633,"gmtModify":1703750952379,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"尤大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/148302311","repostId":"1124741749","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124741749","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625910991,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124741749?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-10 17:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Thorpe and Simmons: The legendary lives of two godfather investment tycoons","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124741749","media":"SMARTMATRIX","summary":"他们都出生于30年代，自幼天赋异禀、身在学术圈但都一心向钱，有两个共同的母校。","content":"<p>A Man for All Markets is the personal biography of Edward Thorp, the Chinese translation of \"The Man Who Beat All Markets\". Judging from Thorp's experience, from defeating casinos to entering Wall Street, OTC options, convertible bonds, stocks, futures and other derivatives, all Dabbled in, worthy of the name All Markets. Taleb says in the preface that his memoir reads like a thriller.</p><p>As a mathematical genius and the godfather of quantitative investment, he pioneered the introduction of probability theory, information theory, and computer programming into financial transactions, which influenced countless Quant bosses in later generations: Bill Gross, David Shaw, Ken Griffin... including the famous James Simons, whose Renaissance Technology company created the myth of the rate of return in financial history. Similarly, Simons' biography The Man Who Solved The Market records in detail the ups and downs of his and his team's conquest of the financial market.</p><p><b>Academic origin</b></p><p>When culture flourishes, people are outstanding. The so-called outstanding people, such as the Huxiang School since the late Ming Dynasty in China, made Hunan the cradle of revolutionaries. In the academic circle, there is a similar phenomenon. If you study the backgrounds of the two bosses carefully, you will find a lot in common. They were both born in the 1930s. They were gifted since childhood, in the academic circle, but they were all dedicated to money. They have two common alma maters: the University of California, Berkeley and MIT. The academics of both universities reached their peak after the war. One of the main reasons was the large-scale military scientific research activities (the famous Manhattan Project, cryptography, information theory and modern computers) spawned by World War II. Both Thorp and Simons happened to catch up with this wave of academic dividends. In the 1950s, Thorp was obsessed with studying roulette with Shannon, while Simons was still immersed in theoretical mathematics, which also made his academic achievements higher (Chern-Simons Theroy). In the 1960s, MIT became the center of the computer revolution, and mathematics and computers were the two keys to Wall Street, and Thorp was the lucky one to hold these two keys.</p><p><b>Casinos vs Wall Street</b></p><p>The popular story nowadays is that Thorp defeated the casino by using the law of large numbers and Kelly's formula, and he became the first person in history to be \"blacked out\" by Las Vegas casinos. By contrast, the hedge fund he founded, PNP (Princeton Newport Partners), has a dim profile. In fact, from 1969 to 1988, the annualized returns of the two PNP funds reached 19.1% and 15.1% respectively, while the average annual growth rate of the S&P index during the same period was 10.2%. In the past 19 years, after two oil crises in the 1970s and the stock market crash in 1987, the two funds have never suffered a single-quarter loss, let alone an annual loss. In the world's largest casino, its performance is the best, and its investment model is 20 years ahead of the wide customers who have filed into Wall Street since then.</p><p>In 1988, Thorp's fund was forced to close because it was implicated in the case of Milken, the king of junk bonds. It was in this year that Simons established the Medallion Fund. He is over 500 years old and can be described as a late bloomer. Before that, he had been groping for 10 years to find a successful investment model, and had been swinging between subjective and quantitative. Although the outside world has always regarded Simons as a master of quantitative investment, in fact, his role is completely different from Thorp's. His main job is not to develop quantitative models, but to dig all kinds of scientists from the academic circle to help the company develop quantitative models, and shape the company's corporate culture as a spiritual leader. As a world-class mathematician + excellent sales, he can deal with different people well, which is a rare ability.</p><p><b>The road to quantification</b></p><p>As a pioneer in quantitative trading, Thorp is good at hedging and arbitrage of various derivatives. The bear market and volatility in the 1970s made this strategy work perfectly. Relying on his mathematical talent and market sense, he discovered new blue oceans: Statistical Arbitrage and factor models-early quant prototypes. The risk under this model is theoretically infinite, especially the upper limit of losses for shorting those overvalued stocks is infinite. Thorp's main risk control strategy is diversified investment. Since then, LTCM has adopted a similar arbitrage model, but lacked a risk control strategy like Thorp and was defeated by the black swan. In order to improve investment efficiency, Thorp turned investment strategies into programs and once again became a pioneer in programmatic trading (Algorithm Trading).</p><p>Simons, in contrast, was less lucky. From early attempts at intuitive investing to trend-based momentum trading, reversal trading to continuous collection and mining of massive amounts of data, including data cleaning, signal mechanism and backtesting. In 1986, the model framework for identifying hidden price trends was used-in 1989, abnormal trading signals were used for short-term high-frequency trading-in 1992, it was changed to only a single model (key breakthrough), and then speech recognition experts helped make various technological breakthroughs (financial models have similarities with speech recognition), and the model has gone through a long process of iterative improvement. In the end, the important core competence of the model was developed: identifying the \"value of transactions\", including: the certainty of price trends, the weight trade-off between trading signals, and the judgment of the impact of trading based on signals on the market. This capability is particularly important for high-frequency full-variety trading.</p><p><b>Winning System: Probabilistic Thinking & Modeling Human Behavior</b></p><p>For Thorp, gambling and investment are games based on probability statistics, and the bet amount is allocated according to the winning percentage (fund management based on Kelly's law). The first major breakthrough of Medallion Fund also comes from the application of Kelly's law and shortening the trading frequency to make its trading more reflective of the law of large numbers. Medallion's system can make money as long as the winning rate is slightly above 50%, regardless of the profit or loss of every sale. Essentially, it is making money by taking advantage of the omissions and mistakes of other traders (market ineffectiveness). Humans are highly predictable in their behavior under high pressure, and they instinctively show panic. The premise of modeling is that humans will constantly repeat past behaviors. Soros once modeled human behavior with the philosophical theory of reflexivity, while Simons's team used data and algorithms to model human behavior to confirm the theory of behavioral finance.</p><p>Unlike traditional value investing, which simplifies the market into a market gentleman, the experience of quantitative investing is that there are far more factors and variables that affect financial markets and investments than most people realize, and the factors that lead to market ineffectiveness can even be said to be encrypted (Thorp spares no effort to refute the efficient market hypothesis in his book). Investors try to find the most basic driving factors, but what they are missing may be an entire dimension of information. Medallion Fund can't explain the logic behind every profit law, just as human beings can't understand Alpha Go, perhaps it exists at a higher latitude.</p><p>Models are abstractions and simplifications of the world, but models are not omnipotent. When data and desire conflict, even rational scientists cannot be completely rational. Simons' original intention was to create an algorithm-driven automatic trading system, which completely shielded human subjective judgment. However, in every crisis, he still couldn't help but intervene manually to reduce his dependence on signals and actively reduce his trading position. The results of the intervention were not very ideal. His colleague Patterson also said: \"<b>Never put too much trust in trading models. The basic mistake of LTCM is to believe that the model is the truth. We never believe that our model can reflect the whole truth. It only reflects some of it</b>。”</p><p><b>Wide guest student</b></p><p>In fact, the intersection of many big guys is far beyond our imagination. For example, Thorp and Buffett played at the bridge table. After confirming that Buffett would eventually become the richest man in the United States, he decisively invested in BRK stock. Many people think that Xueba may not necessarily have a good life. After all, there is a huge gap between book smart and street smart, and the rules of the real world are much more complicated than those of schools. However, Thorp has practiced the way of thinking of applying abstract thinking to real life, which truly explains that \"a tough life doesn't need to be explained\". Academics, wealth and family are perfect, and he realized early that life itself is higher than making money. Compared with Thorp's splendid life, Simons's life has too many twists and turns. He is divorced, his two sons have suffered misfortune and betrayal by his partners. But in the end, I chose to make peace with life and devote myself to charity. From academic career to lenient students, I explored the true meaning of destiny in the ups and downs, and experience itself was the meaning. As Thorp said at the end of his autobiography: Life is like reading a novel or running a marathon. Reaching the finish line is often not so important, but the journey itself and the experience along the way are more precious.<b>You have dance.</b></p>","source":"lsy1625911325017","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Thorpe and Simmons: The legendary lives of two godfather investment tycoons</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThorpe and Simmons: The legendary lives of two godfather investment tycoons\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">SMARTMATRIX</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-10 17:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A Man for All Markets is the personal biography of Edward Thorp, the Chinese translation of \"The Man Who Beat All Markets\". Judging from Thorp's experience, from defeating casinos to entering Wall Street, OTC options, convertible bonds, stocks, futures and other derivatives, all Dabbled in, worthy of the name All Markets. Taleb says in the preface that his memoir reads like a thriller.</p><p>As a mathematical genius and the godfather of quantitative investment, he pioneered the introduction of probability theory, information theory, and computer programming into financial transactions, which influenced countless Quant bosses in later generations: Bill Gross, David Shaw, Ken Griffin... including the famous James Simons, whose Renaissance Technology company created the myth of the rate of return in financial history. Similarly, Simons' biography The Man Who Solved The Market records in detail the ups and downs of his and his team's conquest of the financial market.</p><p><b>Academic origin</b></p><p>When culture flourishes, people are outstanding. The so-called outstanding people, such as the Huxiang School since the late Ming Dynasty in China, made Hunan the cradle of revolutionaries. In the academic circle, there is a similar phenomenon. If you study the backgrounds of the two bosses carefully, you will find a lot in common. They were both born in the 1930s. They were gifted since childhood, in the academic circle, but they were all dedicated to money. They have two common alma maters: the University of California, Berkeley and MIT. The academics of both universities reached their peak after the war. One of the main reasons was the large-scale military scientific research activities (the famous Manhattan Project, cryptography, information theory and modern computers) spawned by World War II. Both Thorp and Simons happened to catch up with this wave of academic dividends. In the 1950s, Thorp was obsessed with studying roulette with Shannon, while Simons was still immersed in theoretical mathematics, which also made his academic achievements higher (Chern-Simons Theroy). In the 1960s, MIT became the center of the computer revolution, and mathematics and computers were the two keys to Wall Street, and Thorp was the lucky one to hold these two keys.</p><p><b>Casinos vs Wall Street</b></p><p>The popular story nowadays is that Thorp defeated the casino by using the law of large numbers and Kelly's formula, and he became the first person in history to be \"blacked out\" by Las Vegas casinos. By contrast, the hedge fund he founded, PNP (Princeton Newport Partners), has a dim profile. In fact, from 1969 to 1988, the annualized returns of the two PNP funds reached 19.1% and 15.1% respectively, while the average annual growth rate of the S&P index during the same period was 10.2%. In the past 19 years, after two oil crises in the 1970s and the stock market crash in 1987, the two funds have never suffered a single-quarter loss, let alone an annual loss. In the world's largest casino, its performance is the best, and its investment model is 20 years ahead of the wide customers who have filed into Wall Street since then.</p><p>In 1988, Thorp's fund was forced to close because it was implicated in the case of Milken, the king of junk bonds. It was in this year that Simons established the Medallion Fund. He is over 500 years old and can be described as a late bloomer. Before that, he had been groping for 10 years to find a successful investment model, and had been swinging between subjective and quantitative. Although the outside world has always regarded Simons as a master of quantitative investment, in fact, his role is completely different from Thorp's. His main job is not to develop quantitative models, but to dig all kinds of scientists from the academic circle to help the company develop quantitative models, and shape the company's corporate culture as a spiritual leader. As a world-class mathematician + excellent sales, he can deal with different people well, which is a rare ability.</p><p><b>The road to quantification</b></p><p>As a pioneer in quantitative trading, Thorp is good at hedging and arbitrage of various derivatives. The bear market and volatility in the 1970s made this strategy work perfectly. Relying on his mathematical talent and market sense, he discovered new blue oceans: Statistical Arbitrage and factor models-early quant prototypes. The risk under this model is theoretically infinite, especially the upper limit of losses for shorting those overvalued stocks is infinite. Thorp's main risk control strategy is diversified investment. Since then, LTCM has adopted a similar arbitrage model, but lacked a risk control strategy like Thorp and was defeated by the black swan. In order to improve investment efficiency, Thorp turned investment strategies into programs and once again became a pioneer in programmatic trading (Algorithm Trading).</p><p>Simons, in contrast, was less lucky. From early attempts at intuitive investing to trend-based momentum trading, reversal trading to continuous collection and mining of massive amounts of data, including data cleaning, signal mechanism and backtesting. In 1986, the model framework for identifying hidden price trends was used-in 1989, abnormal trading signals were used for short-term high-frequency trading-in 1992, it was changed to only a single model (key breakthrough), and then speech recognition experts helped make various technological breakthroughs (financial models have similarities with speech recognition), and the model has gone through a long process of iterative improvement. In the end, the important core competence of the model was developed: identifying the \"value of transactions\", including: the certainty of price trends, the weight trade-off between trading signals, and the judgment of the impact of trading based on signals on the market. This capability is particularly important for high-frequency full-variety trading.</p><p><b>Winning System: Probabilistic Thinking & Modeling Human Behavior</b></p><p>For Thorp, gambling and investment are games based on probability statistics, and the bet amount is allocated according to the winning percentage (fund management based on Kelly's law). The first major breakthrough of Medallion Fund also comes from the application of Kelly's law and shortening the trading frequency to make its trading more reflective of the law of large numbers. Medallion's system can make money as long as the winning rate is slightly above 50%, regardless of the profit or loss of every sale. Essentially, it is making money by taking advantage of the omissions and mistakes of other traders (market ineffectiveness). Humans are highly predictable in their behavior under high pressure, and they instinctively show panic. The premise of modeling is that humans will constantly repeat past behaviors. Soros once modeled human behavior with the philosophical theory of reflexivity, while Simons's team used data and algorithms to model human behavior to confirm the theory of behavioral finance.</p><p>Unlike traditional value investing, which simplifies the market into a market gentleman, the experience of quantitative investing is that there are far more factors and variables that affect financial markets and investments than most people realize, and the factors that lead to market ineffectiveness can even be said to be encrypted (Thorp spares no effort to refute the efficient market hypothesis in his book). Investors try to find the most basic driving factors, but what they are missing may be an entire dimension of information. Medallion Fund can't explain the logic behind every profit law, just as human beings can't understand Alpha Go, perhaps it exists at a higher latitude.</p><p>Models are abstractions and simplifications of the world, but models are not omnipotent. When data and desire conflict, even rational scientists cannot be completely rational. Simons' original intention was to create an algorithm-driven automatic trading system, which completely shielded human subjective judgment. However, in every crisis, he still couldn't help but intervene manually to reduce his dependence on signals and actively reduce his trading position. The results of the intervention were not very ideal. His colleague Patterson also said: \"<b>Never put too much trust in trading models. The basic mistake of LTCM is to believe that the model is the truth. We never believe that our model can reflect the whole truth. It only reflects some of it</b>。”</p><p><b>Wide guest student</b></p><p>In fact, the intersection of many big guys is far beyond our imagination. For example, Thorp and Buffett played at the bridge table. After confirming that Buffett would eventually become the richest man in the United States, he decisively invested in BRK stock. Many people think that Xueba may not necessarily have a good life. After all, there is a huge gap between book smart and street smart, and the rules of the real world are much more complicated than those of schools. However, Thorp has practiced the way of thinking of applying abstract thinking to real life, which truly explains that \"a tough life doesn't need to be explained\". Academics, wealth and family are perfect, and he realized early that life itself is higher than making money. Compared with Thorp's splendid life, Simons's life has too many twists and turns. He is divorced, his two sons have suffered misfortune and betrayal by his partners. But in the end, I chose to make peace with life and devote myself to charity. From academic career to lenient students, I explored the true meaning of destiny in the ups and downs, and experience itself was the meaning. As Thorp said at the end of his autobiography: Life is like reading a novel or running a marathon. Reaching the finish line is often not so important, but the journey itself and the experience along the way are more precious.<b>You have dance.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/g5Zdx-uS3wl9QbsHZm1DVw\">SMARTMATRIX</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/388d882133df2db2363aa871ff756c47","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/g5Zdx-uS3wl9QbsHZm1DVw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124741749","content_text":"A Man for All Markets是Edward Thorp的个人传记，中文翻译《战胜一切市场的人》，从Thorp的经历来看，从打败赌场到进入华尔街，OTC期权、可转债、股票、期货等衍生品，全部涉猎，名副其实的All Markets。塔勒布在序言里说，他的回忆录读起来像一部惊悚小说。\n作为一个数学天才、量化投资教父级人物，他开创性的将概率论、信息论、计算机编程引入金融交易，影响了后世无数Quant大佬：Bill Gross、David Shaw、Ken Griffin...其中也包括大名鼎鼎的James Simons，后者的文艺复兴科技公司创造了金融史上的回报率神话，同样，讲述Simons的传记The Man Who Solved The Market，详细记录了他和他的团队征服金融市场的起起落落，虽是一位华尔街日报作家根据采访汇编而成，但其中不少以前从未披露过的精彩故事。\n学术源流\n文化兴，则人杰出，所谓的人杰地灵，比如中国明末以来的湖湘学派让湖南成为革命党人的摇篮。在学术圈，也有类似的现象。仔细研究两位大佬的背景，会发现很多共通点，他们都出生于30年代，自幼天赋异禀、身在学术圈但都一心向钱，有两个共同的母校：加州大学伯克利分校和MIT。两校的学术在战后都达到了巅峰，主要一个原因就是二战催生的大规军事科研活动（著名的曼哈顿计划、密码学、信息论和现代计算机），Thorp和Simons都恰好赶上了这波学术红利。50年代，Thorp醉心于和香农一起研究轮盘赌，而Simons仍埋头于理论数学问题，这也使得其在学术上的成就更高（Chern-Simons Theroy）。60年代，MIT成为计算机革命的中心，而数学和计算机正是通向华尔街的两把钥匙，Thorp正是手握这两把钥匙的幸运儿。\n赌场vs华尔街\n如今为人津津乐道的故事是Thorp利用大数定律和凯利公式打败了赌场，他也成了历史上第一个被拉斯维加斯赌场“拉黑”的人。相比之下，他创设的对冲基金PNP（Princeton Newport Partners）知名度黯淡不少。实际上，从1969年到1988年，PNP两支基金的年化收益率分别达到19.1%和15.1%，同期标普指数年均增长率为10.2%。19年间历经70年代两次石油危机、87年股灾，两只基金从未发生单季亏损，更没有年度亏损。在世间最大的赌场，其业绩冠绝其时，其投资模式，领先此后鱼贯进入华尔街的宽客们20年。\n1988年，Thorp的基金因为受到垃圾债券之王米尔肯一案的牵连被迫关闭。正是在这一年，Simons成立大奖章基金，已年过半百的他，可谓大器晚成，在此前为了寻找成功的投资模型已经摸索了10年之久，一直在主观和量化之间摇摆。尽管外界一直都把Simons视作量化投资大师，但实际上他点角色和Thorp完全不同，他的主要工作并不是开发量化模型，而是从学术圈挖掘各类科学家来帮助公司开发量化模型，并且作为精神领袖塑造公司企业文化。作为一名世界级的数学家+卓越的销售，他与不同的人都能融洽的打交道，这是一种罕见的能力。\n量化之路\n作为量化交易的先驱，Thorp擅长各种衍生品的对冲套利，70年代的熊市和波动率让这种策略运行的非常完美。依靠自己的数学天赋和市场嗅觉发现了新的蓝海：统计套利（Statistical Arbitrage）和因子模型（factors model）——早期的quant原型。这种模式下的风险理论上是无穷的，尤其是做空那些价格高估的股票的损失上限是无穷大，Thorp主要风控策略是分散化投资。此后的LTCM采用类似的套利模式，但缺少Thorp这样的风控策略，被黑天鹅击败。为了提升投资效率，Thorp将投资策略变成程序，再次成为程序化交易（Algorithm Trading）的先驱。\n相比之下，Simons就没那么幸运了。从早期尝试直觉投资到基于趋势的动量交易、反转交易再到持续收集挖掘海量数据包括数据清洗、信号机制和回溯测试。1986年使用识别隐藏价格趋势的模型框架——1989年利用异常交易信号进行短期高频交易——1992年改为只用单一模型（关键性突破），而后语音识别专家帮助进行各种技术突破（金融模型与语音识别有相似之处），模型经历了漫长迭代改进的过程。最终练就了模型重要核心能力：识别出“交易的价值”，包括：价格趋势的确定性大小、交易信号之间的权重取舍、根据信号进行交易对市场造成的影响的判断。这项能力对于高频全品种交易尤为重要。\n取胜系统：概率思考&对人类行为建模\n对Thorp来说，赌博和投资都是以概率统计为基础的游戏，根据胜率的大小来分配下注金额的大小（基于凯利法则的资金管理），而大奖章基金的第一次重大突破也来自于对凯利法则的运用以及缩短交易频率使其交易更体现大数定律。大奖章的系统只要胜率略高于50%就能赚钱，而不在乎每一笔买卖的盈亏。本质上，是在利用其他交易者的疏忽和错误赚钱（市场无效）。人类在高压下的行为具有很高的可预测性，他们会本能地表现出恐慌。建模的前提是人类会不断重复过去的行为。索罗斯曾以反身性的哲学理论对人类行为建模，而Simons的团队利用数据和算法对人类行为建模，以此印证行为金融学的理论。\n与传统的价值投资把市场面简化成一位市场先生不同，量化投资的经验是，影响金融市场和投资的因素和变量远远比大多数人意识到的更多，导致市场无效的因素甚至可以说是加密的（Thorp在书中对有效市场假说也不遗余力的进行驳斥）。投资者努力寻找最基本的推动因素，但是遗漏的也许是一整个维度的信息。大奖章基金无法对每一条盈利的规律背后的逻辑进行解释，就如同人类无法理解阿尔法围棋一样，也许是更高纬度的存在。\n模型是对世界的抽象和简化，但模型并不是万能的。当数据和欲望相冲突，即便是理性的科学家，也无法做到完全理性。Simons的初心是创建的算法驱动的自动交易系统，完全屏蔽人类的主观判断，但每一次危机，他仍忍不住会手动干预，减少对信号的依赖，主动缩减交易头寸，可干预的结果并不十分理想。他的同事帕特森也说：”永远不要对交易模型过于信任。长期资本管理公司的基本错误是认为模型就是事实真相，我们从未相信我们的模型能够反映全部事实，它只反映事实的一部分。”\n宽客人生\n其实很多大佬的交集，远远超过我们想象。比如Thorp和巴菲特在桥牌桌上过过招，在确认巴菲特最终会成为全美最富有的人之后，果断投资了BRK的股票。很多人以为，学霸不一定会拥有好人生，毕竟，book smart和street smart之间的有极大的鸿沟，现实世界的规则比学校要复杂太多，但Thorp践行了将抽象思维运用到现实生活中的思维方式，真正诠释了“彪悍的人生不需要解释”，学术、财富、家庭圆满，很早就意识到在生活本身高于赚钱。相比较Thorp精彩纷呈的人生，Simons的人生曲折太多，离过婚，他的两个儿子先后遭受不幸，还遭遇过伙伴背叛。但最终还是选择和生活讲和，并投身慈善事业，从学术生涯到宽客人生，在跌宕起伏中探寻命运的真谛，而经历本身就是意义所在。就像Thorp在自传末尾所说：生活像是读一本小说或者跑一场马拉松，到达终点往往不是那么重要，旅途本身和沿途的体验更为珍贵。No body can take away the dance you have danced.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157175685,"gmtCreate":1625575509547,"gmtModify":1703744076543,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"尤大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/157175685","repostId":"1188552219","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188552219","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625573371,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1188552219?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-06 20:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Pre-market: Big changes in the supervision of Chinese concept stocks! Weibo's stock price staged a \"roller coaster\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188552219","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月6日（周二），美股三大指数期货涨跌不一，纳指期货独自走高。今天是美国独立日假期后首个交易日，市场静待本周晚些时候公布的美联储会议纪要和今日晚些时候公布的美国服务业PMI。\n\n【中概股】\n要闻\n周二","content":"<p>On July 6 (Tuesday), the three major U.S. stock index futures were mixed, and the Nasdaq futures rose alone. Today is the first trading day after the Independence Day holiday in the United States, and the market is waiting for the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting to be released later this week and the US services PMI to be released later today.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/642410d9a3704d939469b26b3cd3115a\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"254\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>【<b>Chinese concept stocks]</b></p><p><b>Highlights</b></p><p>On Tuesday,<b>The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the Opinions on Strictly Cracking Down on Illegal Securities Activities in accordance with the Law. The opinion proposes to strengthen the supervision of Chinese concept stocks. Take practical measures to respond to risks and emergencies of Chinese concept stock companies, and promote the construction of relevant regulatory systems. Amend the State Council's special regulations on overseas share offering and listing of joint stock limited companies, clarify the responsibilities of domestic industry supervisors and regulatory authorities, and strengthen cross-departmental supervision and coordination.</b></p><p>It is necessary to improve relevant laws and regulations such as data security, cross-border data flow, and confidential information management. We will promptly revise the regulations on strengthening the confidentiality and file management related to the issuance and listing of securities overseas, and consolidate the main responsibilities of overseas listed companies for information security.</p><p><b>Stock price trend</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">Weibo</a>Before the market, it once soared by nearly 50%, and then the increase narrowed in a \"diving\" way! According to market news: Cao Guowei, chairman of Weibo, is negotiating with Chinese state-owned investors to privatize the Weibo platform. The hoped privatization price is US $90-100 per share, a premium of 70.13%-89.03% over the previous day's closing price of US $52.9. However,<b>The person in charge of relevant departments in Weibo said that privatization \"rumors are untrue\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6106699a492d43d0297d4369293ff0b2\" tg-width=\"1405\" tg-height=\"873\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>It fell about 20% before the market. Last weekend, relevant authorities announced the implementation of a cyber security review in Didi Chuxing. In order to cooperate with the network security review and prevent the expansion of risks, Didi Chuxing stopped the registration of new users during the review period.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>The group fell 19% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">BOSS Direct Recruitment</a>Fell nearly 10%. Both of them have been reviewed by relevant departments for network security.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Betta fish</a>It fell more than 6% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">Tiger Tooth</a>It fell more than 2% before the market. According to the source,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>The merger plan of Huya and Douyu, the two dominant domestic live broadcast platforms, has been blocked.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>It fell more than 4% before the market. XPeng Automobile will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Wednesday. Today, the black market of Hong Kong stocks fell below the issue price of HK $165 per share, a drop of more than 1%. If XPeng Motor is successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange tomorrow, it will become the first Chinese car company to be listed in new york and Hong Kong for two days in the past three years.</p><p>At the same time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Fell more than 2%.</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks generally fell. Wherein,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>Fell more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">ding-dong</a>Buying groceries,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily excellent fresh</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>Fell more than 3%.</p><p>【<b>Important US stocks]</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>It rose 1.4% before the market. Market news: GameStop plans to build a new factory in Reno, Nevada, which is expected to be put into operation in 2022.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>It rose more than 3% before the market. Market news: AMC Cinemas will not seek shareholder approval to increase its share capital.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTM\">Tata Motors</a>It fell more than 8% before the market, as Jaguar Land Rover expected the chip shortage in the second quarter to be worse than in the first quarter.</p><p>The blockchain sector of the U.S. stock market generally rose before the market, but the gains fell back. Bit Digital rose 1.88%, MicroStrategy rose 1.12%, Riot Blockchain rose 2.15%, and Marathon Patent rose 2.01%.</p><p>【<b>Commodities]</b></p><p>International oil prices fell from their highs. Talks between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) failed on Monday, and the alliance abandoned the meeting after failing to reach an agreement on output policy for the third time due to opposition from the United Arab Emirates, amid expectations that oil supply will tighten, but concerns that members may start increasing production limited gains.</p><p>As of press time, WTI crude oil futures prices were at US $75.83/barrel, an increase of 0.89%; Brent crude oil futures prices were at $76.92 per barrel, a decrease of 0.31%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98c6e775cc542e59324e8f2fd3ecb0dd\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>International gold prices rose. Concerns about global mutated viruses have heated up, and market concerns about the Fed raising interest rates earlier have eased. The market is currently paying close attention to the guidance of the minutes of the Fed meeting.</p><p>As of press time, the price of gold futures in the New York market was at $1,811.90 per ounce, an increase of 1.60%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a44e298a8125c7cc8c2ffe486bf34b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-market: Big changes in the supervision of Chinese concept stocks! Weibo's stock price staged a \"roller coaster\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-market: Big changes in the supervision of Chinese concept stocks! Weibo's stock price staged a \"roller coaster\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-06 20:09</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On July 6 (Tuesday), the three major U.S. stock index futures were mixed, and the Nasdaq futures rose alone. Today is the first trading day after the Independence Day holiday in the United States, and the market is waiting for the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting to be released later this week and the US services PMI to be released later today.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/642410d9a3704d939469b26b3cd3115a\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"254\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>【<b>Chinese concept stocks]</b></p><p><b>Highlights</b></p><p>On Tuesday,<b>The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the Opinions on Strictly Cracking Down on Illegal Securities Activities in accordance with the Law. The opinion proposes to strengthen the supervision of Chinese concept stocks. Take practical measures to respond to risks and emergencies of Chinese concept stock companies, and promote the construction of relevant regulatory systems. Amend the State Council's special regulations on overseas share offering and listing of joint stock limited companies, clarify the responsibilities of domestic industry supervisors and regulatory authorities, and strengthen cross-departmental supervision and coordination.</b></p><p>It is necessary to improve relevant laws and regulations such as data security, cross-border data flow, and confidential information management. We will promptly revise the regulations on strengthening the confidentiality and file management related to the issuance and listing of securities overseas, and consolidate the main responsibilities of overseas listed companies for information security.</p><p><b>Stock price trend</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">Weibo</a>Before the market, it once soared by nearly 50%, and then the increase narrowed in a \"diving\" way! According to market news: Cao Guowei, chairman of Weibo, is negotiating with Chinese state-owned investors to privatize the Weibo platform. The hoped privatization price is US $90-100 per share, a premium of 70.13%-89.03% over the previous day's closing price of US $52.9. However,<b>The person in charge of relevant departments in Weibo said that privatization \"rumors are untrue\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6106699a492d43d0297d4369293ff0b2\" tg-width=\"1405\" tg-height=\"873\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>It fell about 20% before the market. Last weekend, relevant authorities announced the implementation of a cyber security review in Didi Chuxing. In order to cooperate with the network security review and prevent the expansion of risks, Didi Chuxing stopped the registration of new users during the review period.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>The group fell 19% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">BOSS Direct Recruitment</a>Fell nearly 10%. Both of them have been reviewed by relevant departments for network security.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Betta fish</a>It fell more than 6% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">Tiger Tooth</a>It fell more than 2% before the market. According to the source,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>The merger plan of Huya and Douyu, the two dominant domestic live broadcast platforms, has been blocked.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>It fell more than 4% before the market. XPeng Automobile will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Wednesday. Today, the black market of Hong Kong stocks fell below the issue price of HK $165 per share, a drop of more than 1%. If XPeng Motor is successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange tomorrow, it will become the first Chinese car company to be listed in new york and Hong Kong for two days in the past three years.</p><p>At the same time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Fell more than 2%.</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks generally fell. Wherein,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>Fell more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">ding-dong</a>Buying groceries,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily excellent fresh</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>Fell more than 3%.</p><p>【<b>Important US stocks]</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>It rose 1.4% before the market. Market news: GameStop plans to build a new factory in Reno, Nevada, which is expected to be put into operation in 2022.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>It rose more than 3% before the market. Market news: AMC Cinemas will not seek shareholder approval to increase its share capital.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTM\">Tata Motors</a>It fell more than 8% before the market, as Jaguar Land Rover expected the chip shortage in the second quarter to be worse than in the first quarter.</p><p>The blockchain sector of the U.S. stock market generally rose before the market, but the gains fell back. Bit Digital rose 1.88%, MicroStrategy rose 1.12%, Riot Blockchain rose 2.15%, and Marathon Patent rose 2.01%.</p><p>【<b>Commodities]</b></p><p>International oil prices fell from their highs. Talks between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) failed on Monday, and the alliance abandoned the meeting after failing to reach an agreement on output policy for the third time due to opposition from the United Arab Emirates, amid expectations that oil supply will tighten, but concerns that members may start increasing production limited gains.</p><p>As of press time, WTI crude oil futures prices were at US $75.83/barrel, an increase of 0.89%; Brent crude oil futures prices were at $76.92 per barrel, a decrease of 0.31%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98c6e775cc542e59324e8f2fd3ecb0dd\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>International gold prices rose. Concerns about global mutated viruses have heated up, and market concerns about the Fed raising interest rates earlier have eased. The market is currently paying close attention to the guidance of the minutes of the Fed meeting.</p><p>As of press time, the price of gold futures in the New York market was at $1,811.90 per ounce, an increase of 1.60%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a44e298a8125c7cc8c2ffe486bf34b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188552219","content_text":"7月6日（周二），美股三大指数期货涨跌不一，纳指期货独自走高。今天是美国独立日假期后首个交易日，市场静待本周晚些时候公布的美联储会议纪要和今日晚些时候公布的美国服务业PMI。\n\n【中概股】\n要闻\n周二，中办、国办印发《关于依法从严打击证券违法活动的意见》。意见提出，要加强中概股监管。切实采取措施做好中概股公司风险及突发情况应对，推进相关监管制度体系建设。修改国务院关于股份有限公司境外募集股份及上市的特别规定，明确境内行业主管和监管部门职责，加强跨部门监管协同。\n要完善数据安全、跨境数据流动、涉密信息管理等相关法律法规。抓紧修订关于加强在境外发行证券与上市相关保密和档案管理工作的规定，压实境外上市公司信息安全主体责任。\n股价走势\n微博盘前一度暴涨近50%，后涨幅呈“跳水”式收窄！市场消息称：微博董事长曹国伟和中国国有投资者洽谈将微博平台私有化，希望的私有化价格为每股90-100美元，较前日收盘价52.9美元溢价70.13%-89.03%。不过，微博相关部门负责人表示，私有化“传言不实”。\n\n滴滴盘前跌约20%。上周末，有关部门宣布对滴滴出行实施网络安全审查。为配合网络安全审查工作，防范风险扩大，审查期间滴滴出行停止新用户注册。\n满帮集团盘前大跌19%，BOSS直聘跌近10%。二者均被有关部门进行网络安全审查。\n斗鱼盘前跌超6%，虎牙盘前跌超2%。消息称，腾讯主导的国内两大直播平台虎牙和斗鱼的合并计划已经被阻止。\n小鹏汽车盘前跌超4%。小鹏汽车将于本周三在港交所挂牌上市，今日港股暗盘跌破发行价165港元/股，跌幅超过1%。如果小鹏汽车明天成功在港交所挂牌上市，将成为近三年以来首个在纽约香港两天上市的中国车企。\n同时，理想汽车、蔚来跌超2%。\n热门中概股普遍下跌。其中，知乎跌超8%，哔哩哔哩跌超4%，叮咚买菜、每日优鲜跌超5%，好未来、高途跌超3%。\n【重要美股】\n游戏驿站盘前涨1.4%。市场消息：游戏驿站计划在内华达州里诺市建立新工厂，预计于2022年投入运营。\nAMC院线盘前涨超3%。市场消息：AMC院线不会寻求股东批准增加股本。\n塔塔汽车盘前跌超8%，因捷豹路虎预计第二季度芯片短缺的情况将比第一季度更严重。\n美股区块链板块盘前普涨，但涨幅有所回落。Bit Digital涨1.88%，MicroStrategy涨1.12%，Riot Blockchain涨2.15%，Marathon Patent涨2.01%。\n【大宗商品】\n国际油价从高点回落。石油输出国组织及其盟友(OPEC+)在周一举行的谈判失败，由于阿联酋的反对，该联盟在第三次未能就产出政策达成协议后放弃了这次会议，市场预期油市供应将趋紧，但对成员国可能开始增产的担忧限制了涨幅。\n截至发稿，WTI原油期货价格报75.83美元/桶，涨幅0.89%；布伦特原油期货价格报76.92美元/桶，跌幅0.31%。\n\n国际金价上涨。全球变异病毒造成的担忧情绪升温，且市场对美联储更早升息的担忧缓和，目前市场密切关注美联储会议纪要的指引。\n截至发稿，纽约市场黄金期货价格报1811.90美元/盎司，涨幅1.60%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152496729,"gmtCreate":1625323122761,"gmtModify":1703740422407,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"尤大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go","listText":"Go","text":"Go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/152496729","repostId":"1168133884","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168133884","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625021330,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168133884?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 10:48","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, U.S. stocks will be closed all day on July 5","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168133884","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"因美国独立日假期，7月5日（周一）美股休市一日，7月6日（周二）起恢复交易。\n港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n背景简介：\n独立日是美国法定国庆日，日期为每年7月4日，以纪念1776年7月","content":"<p><b>Due to the Independence Day holiday in the United States, the U.S. stock market will be closed for one day on July 5 (Monday), and trading will resume on July 6 (Tuesday).</b></p><p>Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, British stocks, Australian stocks and Singapore stock markets are trading as usual.</p><p><b>Background brief:</b></p><p><b>Independence Day</b>It is a legal national day of the United States, which is dated on July 4th every year to commemorate the formal adoption of the Declaration of Independence by the Continental Congress in Philadelphia on July 4, 1776. Independence Day in the United States is as grand as religious and folk festivals. Before the festival, ordinary people clean their courtyards, decorate their homes and fly the national flag.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87ddb03d9b4d56cf0dce9450e742016\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"417\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, U.S. stocks will be closed all day on July 5</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, U.S. stocks will be closed all day on July 5\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-30 10:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Due to the Independence Day holiday in the United States, the U.S. stock market will be closed for one day on July 5 (Monday), and trading will resume on July 6 (Tuesday).</b></p><p>Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, British stocks, Australian stocks and Singapore stock markets are trading as usual.</p><p><b>Background brief:</b></p><p><b>Independence Day</b>It is a legal national day of the United States, which is dated on July 4th every year to commemorate the formal adoption of the Declaration of Independence by the Continental Congress in Philadelphia on July 4, 1776. Independence Day in the United States is as grand as religious and folk festivals. Before the festival, ordinary people clean their courtyards, decorate their homes and fly the national flag.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87ddb03d9b4d56cf0dce9450e742016\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"417\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21dd6adec6b29203b5bca22347419441","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168133884","content_text":"因美国独立日假期，7月5日（周一）美股休市一日，7月6日（周二）起恢复交易。\n港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n背景简介：\n独立日是美国法定国庆日，日期为每年7月4日，以纪念1776年7月4日大陆会议在费城正式通过《独立宣言》。美国的独立日，与宗教、民俗节日一样隆重，老百姓在节日前清洁院落，装饰家居，悬挂国旗。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156848516,"gmtCreate":1625213976635,"gmtModify":1703738489550,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"尤大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up","listText":"Up","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/156848516","repostId":"2148687679","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2148687679","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1625209719,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2148687679?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-02 15:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Cut it in half first, then double it! What did the new car-making forces experience in the first half of the year?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2148687679","media":"Wind万得","summary":"在美上市的三家中国电动车新势力均公布了今年上半年销量，全部大幅增长，半年销量接近去年全年。","content":"<p>The three new Chinese electric vehicle forces listed in the United States all announced sales in the first half of this year, all of which increased significantly. Half-year sales were close to the whole of last year. However, their stock prices launched another offensive after a sharp drop at the beginning of the year. Who can be the first to set a record high?</p><p>July 1st,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>The delivery data for June was released. The data showed that the company delivered 8,083 vehicles in June, a year-on-year increase of 116.1%, a record high.<b>From January to June, a total of 41,956 vehicles were delivered, accounting for 95.9% of last year's full-year delivery volume.</b></p><p>On the same day,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>The report card was also announced. The delivery volume in June reached 6,565 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 617%.<b>From January to June, the cumulative delivery volume has exceeded its full-year 2020 delivery volume, reaching 30,738 vehicles.</b>XPeng vehicles achieved mass production for the first time in June 2018, and only 232 vehicles were delivered that year.</p><p>Then on July 2,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It was announced that 7,713 Ideal ONE vehicles were delivered in June, a year-on-year increase of 320.6%, setting a new monthly delivery record.<b>From January to June, a total of 30,154 vehicles were delivered.</b>Li Auto delivered it for the first time in December 2019, and only 1,000 vehicles were delivered that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b37547aba879dc1097c41cf53d62e4b\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>These three companies, Nio, were the first to go public in the United States and landed on Nasdaq in 2018. Their current market value is also the highest, exceeding 70 billion US dollars. XPeng and Ideal will not cross the ocean until 2020, and their current market value is just over 30 billion US dollars.</p><p>In 2020, due to the overall loose liquidity, all three companies achieved huge gains. In January this year, Nio's market value once exceeded US $100 billion, jumping to the fourth largest car company in the world. In the 2020 Hurun Global 500 released by Hurun Research Institute, Nio has become the fastest growing Chinese company in value. From the brink of death to being highly sought after, Nio's annual sales have soared steadily, exceeding 43,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 112.6%. The stock price once rose nearly 50 times, and its gross profit margin has turned positive.</p><p>Subsequently, the market was worried that the Federal Reserve would tighten monetary policy, and the stock market experienced an overall correction. The stock prices of these three companies were all halved. Now, driven by sales that exceeded expectations, they have begun to rebound strongly again. At the beginning of the year, the three companies all fell by more than 50%. Among them, XPeng fell the highest, close to 70%, and then started the road to rebound. The ideal rebound was the highest, which has doubled, but it is still 30% short of the record high. Nio's rebound was the weakest, but there was also a 60% increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/135b37f83f0b68dda54c926096011d35\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Deutsche Bank said that in addition to benefiting from the general rise of growth stocks, there are several reasons for the surge of new car-making forces.</p><p>First of all, before 2023-2024, newly entered the field of car manufacturing<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Group, Xiaomi and other companies may not have any reliable products on the market. Secondly,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Poor public relations capabilities and the possible reduction in subsequent new orders are also a big boost to the stock price of the new forces in China's automobile manufacturing. In addition, as the chip supply situation improves, the demand side and sales volume of new car-making forces are also getting stronger and stronger.</p><p><b>The background of the sharp increase in sales of these three companies is that China<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">National New Energy</a>The overall blowout development of the automobile market. The forecast sales of new energy passenger vehicles this year has been raised to 2.4 million units.</b></p><p>From January to May this year, the wholesale sales of the new energy vehicle market reached 860,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.5 times, and the trend is hot. According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in May this year, domestic new energy vehicle sales were 217,000 units, an increase of 159.7%; From January to May, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles were 950,000 units, an increase of 224.2%.</p><p>At the 2021 China Automobile Forum held recently, Shi Jianhua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that when the association predicted at the beginning of the year, it had a premonition of the rising trend of the new energy vehicle market. It is expected that it will not be a problem for new energy vehicle sales to exceed 2 million this year.</p><p>Fu Bingfeng, executive vice president and secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that it is expected that the growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales in China will remain above 40% in the next five years. By 2025, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales in China will reach 20%-30%.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cut it in half first, then double it! What did the new car-making forces experience in the first half of the year?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCut it in half first, then double it! What did the new car-making forces experience in the first half of the year?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-02 15:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The three new Chinese electric vehicle forces listed in the United States all announced sales in the first half of this year, all of which increased significantly. Half-year sales were close to the whole of last year. However, their stock prices launched another offensive after a sharp drop at the beginning of the year. Who can be the first to set a record high?</p><p>July 1st,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>The delivery data for June was released. The data showed that the company delivered 8,083 vehicles in June, a year-on-year increase of 116.1%, a record high.<b>From January to June, a total of 41,956 vehicles were delivered, accounting for 95.9% of last year's full-year delivery volume.</b></p><p>On the same day,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>The report card was also announced. The delivery volume in June reached 6,565 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 617%.<b>From January to June, the cumulative delivery volume has exceeded its full-year 2020 delivery volume, reaching 30,738 vehicles.</b>XPeng vehicles achieved mass production for the first time in June 2018, and only 232 vehicles were delivered that year.</p><p>Then on July 2,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It was announced that 7,713 Ideal ONE vehicles were delivered in June, a year-on-year increase of 320.6%, setting a new monthly delivery record.<b>From January to June, a total of 30,154 vehicles were delivered.</b>Li Auto delivered it for the first time in December 2019, and only 1,000 vehicles were delivered that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b37547aba879dc1097c41cf53d62e4b\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>These three companies, Nio, were the first to go public in the United States and landed on Nasdaq in 2018. Their current market value is also the highest, exceeding 70 billion US dollars. XPeng and Ideal will not cross the ocean until 2020, and their current market value is just over 30 billion US dollars.</p><p>In 2020, due to the overall loose liquidity, all three companies achieved huge gains. In January this year, Nio's market value once exceeded US $100 billion, jumping to the fourth largest car company in the world. In the 2020 Hurun Global 500 released by Hurun Research Institute, Nio has become the fastest growing Chinese company in value. From the brink of death to being highly sought after, Nio's annual sales have soared steadily, exceeding 43,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 112.6%. The stock price once rose nearly 50 times, and its gross profit margin has turned positive.</p><p>Subsequently, the market was worried that the Federal Reserve would tighten monetary policy, and the stock market experienced an overall correction. The stock prices of these three companies were all halved. Now, driven by sales that exceeded expectations, they have begun to rebound strongly again. At the beginning of the year, the three companies all fell by more than 50%. Among them, XPeng fell the highest, close to 70%, and then started the road to rebound. The ideal rebound was the highest, which has doubled, but it is still 30% short of the record high. Nio's rebound was the weakest, but there was also a 60% increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/135b37f83f0b68dda54c926096011d35\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Deutsche Bank said that in addition to benefiting from the general rise of growth stocks, there are several reasons for the surge of new car-making forces.</p><p>First of all, before 2023-2024, newly entered the field of car manufacturing<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Group, Xiaomi and other companies may not have any reliable products on the market. Secondly,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Poor public relations capabilities and the possible reduction in subsequent new orders are also a big boost to the stock price of the new forces in China's automobile manufacturing. In addition, as the chip supply situation improves, the demand side and sales volume of new car-making forces are also getting stronger and stronger.</p><p><b>The background of the sharp increase in sales of these three companies is that China<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">National New Energy</a>The overall blowout development of the automobile market. The forecast sales of new energy passenger vehicles this year has been raised to 2.4 million units.</b></p><p>From January to May this year, the wholesale sales of the new energy vehicle market reached 860,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.5 times, and the trend is hot. According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in May this year, domestic new energy vehicle sales were 217,000 units, an increase of 159.7%; From January to May, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles were 950,000 units, an increase of 224.2%.</p><p>At the 2021 China Automobile Forum held recently, Shi Jianhua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that when the association predicted at the beginning of the year, it had a premonition of the rising trend of the new energy vehicle market. It is expected that it will not be a problem for new energy vehicle sales to exceed 2 million this year.</p><p>Fu Bingfeng, executive vice president and secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that it is expected that the growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales in China will remain above 40% in the next five years. By 2025, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales in China will reach 20%-30%.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71227747b2f467c4d3104fc183d40594","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","NIO":"蔚来"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2148687679","content_text":"在美上市的三家中国电动车新势力均公布了今年上半年销量，全部大幅增长，半年销量接近去年全年，而他们的股价在年初一轮大幅下挫后再次发起攻势，谁能最先创下历史新高?\n7月1日，蔚来发布6月交付数据，数据显示，公司6月交付量达8083辆，同比增长116.1%，创历史新高。1-6月，累计交付41956辆，达到去年全年交付量的95.9%。\n同日，小鹏汽车也公布了成绩单，6月交付量达6565辆，同比增长高达617%。1-6月，累计交付量已经超过其2020年全年的交付量，达到30738辆。小鹏汽车2018年6月首次实现量产，当年交付仅232辆。\n紧接着7月2日，理想汽车公布6月交付7713辆理想ONE，同比增长320.6%，创单月交付量新纪录。1-6月，累计交付30154辆。理想汽车2019年12月首次交付，当年交付量只有1000辆。\n\n这三家公司蔚来最早赴美上市，2018年登陆纳斯达克，目前市值也是最高的，超700亿美元，小鹏和理想则是到2020年才远渡重洋，目前市值刚超300亿美元。\n2020年由于整体流动性宽松，这三家公司全都实现巨额涨幅，今年1月份，蔚来市值一度突破千亿美元，跃升至全球第四大车企。胡润研究院发布的2020胡润世界500强，蔚来成为价值增长最快的中国公司。蔚来从死亡边缘到备受追捧，年销量节节蹿升，超过4.3万台，同比增长112.6%，股价一度涨近50倍，实现了毛利率转正。\n随后市场担心美联储收紧货币政策，股市出现整体回调，这三家公司股价全部腰斩，现在在销量大超预期的带动下，又开始强劲反弹。年初三家公司下跌幅度均超高50%，其中小鹏下跌幅度最高，接近70%，随后开启反弹之路，理想反弹幅度最高，已经翻倍，但是距离历史新高还差30%，蔚来反弹力度最弱，但也有60%的涨幅。\n\n德银表示，除了受益于成长股的普遍上涨之外，造车新势力齐头大涨，还有以下几大原因。\n首先，在2023年-2024年之前，新晋进入造车领域的百度集团、小米等公司可能不会有任何靠谱的产品面世。其次，特斯拉糟糕的公关能力、后续新进订单有可能减少也是中概造车新势力股价的一大助力。还有，随着芯片供应状况改善，造车新势力需求侧和销售量也越来越强劲。\n这三家公司销量大幅上涨的背景是中国新能源车市场整体的井喷式发展。今年新能源乘用车预测销量调高至240万辆。\n今年1-5月新能源车市场批发销量达到86万辆，同比增长2.5倍，走势火爆。根据中国汽车工业协会公布的数据显示，今年5月，国内新能源汽车销量21.7万辆，增长159.7%;1-5月，新能源车累计销量95.0万辆，增长224.2%。\n在日前召开的2021中国汽车论坛上，中国汽车工业协会副秘书长师建华表示，年初协会在预测时，就预感到了新能源汽车市场上涨的趋势，预计今年新能源汽车销量超过200万辆不成问题。\n中国汽车工业协会常务副会长兼秘书长付炳锋则表示，预计未来五年我国新能源汽车产销增速将保持在40%以上，到2025年，我国新能源车销量占比将达到20%-30%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159759561,"gmtCreate":1624981446253,"gmtModify":1703849508367,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"尤大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up","listText":"Up","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159759561","repostId":"1162626672","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162626672","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624950782,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162626672?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-29 15:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Buffett summed up 8 valuable experiences and lessons from the epidemic","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162626672","media":"智通财经 ","summary":"许多人成功的方法之一是把每一次危机都当作一个机会来对待。尽管巴菲特向慈善机构捐赠了数十亿美元，但他的净资产在今年3月突破了1000亿美元大关。巴菲特不仅变得更富有，还为其他投资者带来了一些宝贵的经验教","content":"<p><b>One of the ways many people succeed is to treat every crisis as an opportunity.</b>Despite giving billions of dollars to charity, Buffett's net worth surpassed the $100 billion mark in March of this year. Not only has Buffett gotten richer, but he has brought some valuable lessons for other investors.</p><p>01New investment? Leveraging the S&P 500</p><p>At Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting last month, Buffett talked about one of his favorite investments-one that turned out to be a winner during the pandemic.</p><p>\"I recommend the S&P 500 index fund and have recommended it to people for a long time,\" Buffett said, adding that 90% of the money he left to his wife would go into the S&P 500 after his death.</p><p>The S&P 500 Index Fund is a mutual fund or ETF that mimics the familiar stock index that tracks the 500 largest companies in the United States. Despite the outbreak, the S&P 500 soared 16% in 2020 and hit a new high in 2021.</p><p>\"I like Berkshire, but I think someone who knows nothing about stocks and doesn't have any special feelings about Berkshire, they should buy the S&P 500,\" Buffett said at a shareholder meeting in Los Angeles.</p><p>02 Be practical-even when the market loses its mind</p><p>Buffett recommends investors a long-term and practical approach, rather than \"making 30 or 40 trades a day.\"</p><p>During the conference, Buffett presented two slides showing the 20 largest companies in the world by market capitalization today and in 1989. None of the companies that made the list in '89 are from the 2021 edition. The lesson is this: things are fickle, and picking winners isn't easy.</p><p>\"If you only hold diversified stocks, like U.S. stocks, that would be my preference, but for more than 30 years,\" he said.</p><p>03 Don't expect pensions</p><p>One of the more alarming trends Buffett delved into at the Berkshire Hathaway conference, the increasingly precarious status of many state pension funds, is an issue he says he has been following since 2013.</p><p>\"Pensions are terrible in a lot of states,\" Buffett said. \"It's not getting better. Obviously, it's not getting better at all.\"</p><p>The pandemic has killed states' finances and has only exacerbated the current pension problem that has no long-term solution. Before the pandemic began, the state pension scheme was already short of $1 trillion to meet future obligations to retirees, according to Pew Charitable Trusts.</p><p>04Investors should be wary of certain investments</p><p>Buffett dumped airline stocks because of COVID-19.</p><p>The pandemic crisis has devastated the entire aviation industry, yet airlines have survived with the help of the government. But without that support, you're looking at a whole new air crash. The industry still has many months to go before it wants to return to normal business (and normal profit margins).</p><p>\"I still don't want to buy airlines,\" Buffett told his Berkshire shareholders.</p><p>Delta Air Lines (DAL), one of the airlines Berkshire dumped from its portfolio, saw its shares fall by more than half between March 1 and May 15 last year. Since then, the stock and other major U.S. airlines have recovered, but Buffett doesn't have much confidence in the airline industry's economic fundamentals.</p><p>05 Stick to your long-term plan</p><p>Stick to your financial goals, Buffett said. Buffett remains confident that the U.S. economy will rebound from the COVID-19 crisis, but he told shareholders that the future is far from certain.</p><p>\"You can bet on the U.S., but you have to be careful how you bet,\" he said. He later reiterated that the world can change in \"very, very dramatic ways.\"</p><p>Buffett has never wavered in his belief that holding stocks for a long time is the right investment strategy for a stable financial future. At the Berkshire conference, he was even reminded that he once said it was \"too short\" to hold a stock forever.</p><p>06 Make the Most of Low Interest Rates</p><p>With interest rates falling, Buffett says now is a good time to borrow money.</p><p>With the Fed's commitment to keep key interest rates near zero, Buffett sees an excellent opportunity for borrowers in 2021.</p><p>\"These are fascinating times,\" Buffett told investors, adding that the low-rate environment is \"very pleasant.\"</p><p>\"The economy fell off a cliff in March 2020,\" Buffett said. \"It's been revived in a very effective way through the actions of the Fed.\"</p><p>07 Avoid Credit Card Debt</p><p>If you have credit card debt, get rid of it, Buffett said.</p><p>The pandemic has led to business closures and layoffs, forcing millions of Americans to rely on credit cards for basic financial needs. It's a great survival strategy, but the resulting balance and high interest rates can create long-term financial stress.</p><p>At Berkshire's online shareholder meeting in 2020, he recalled the advice he gave to a friend who had a windfall and was thinking about the smartest way to spend. She told Buffett that she also has credit card debt-18% interest.</p><p>Buffett remembers saying to her, \"If I had 18% debt, the first thing I would do with the money I had on hand would be to pay it off.\" \"You can't borrow money at that rate all your life and get better off.\"</p><p>08 Always Prepare for the Worst</p><p>Buffett said that a \"catastrophe\" is coming. Calling Buffett an \"oracle\" is not for nothing. In 2019, he warned of a \"mega-catastrophe\" for the world that would dwarf the chaos caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Michael.</p><p>When the pandemic first hit the United States, Buffett said in an interview, \"I always felt that a pandemic would happen sooner or later.\"</p><p>You'd think someone who has invested so much in the insurance industry would have the foresight-Berkshire owns Geico and several other insurers-that preparing for the worst is a central part of the business model.</p><p>\"We've seen some strange things happen in the world over the last 15 months,\" he told his investors this year. \"And we're always aware of stranger things going to happen in the future.\"</p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buffett summed up 8 valuable experiences and lessons from the epidemic</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuffett summed up 8 valuable experiences and lessons from the epidemic\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经 </strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-29 15:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>One of the ways many people succeed is to treat every crisis as an opportunity.</b>Despite giving billions of dollars to charity, Buffett's net worth surpassed the $100 billion mark in March of this year. Not only has Buffett gotten richer, but he has brought some valuable lessons for other investors.</p><p>01New investment? Leveraging the S&P 500</p><p>At Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting last month, Buffett talked about one of his favorite investments-one that turned out to be a winner during the pandemic.</p><p>\"I recommend the S&P 500 index fund and have recommended it to people for a long time,\" Buffett said, adding that 90% of the money he left to his wife would go into the S&P 500 after his death.</p><p>The S&P 500 Index Fund is a mutual fund or ETF that mimics the familiar stock index that tracks the 500 largest companies in the United States. Despite the outbreak, the S&P 500 soared 16% in 2020 and hit a new high in 2021.</p><p>\"I like Berkshire, but I think someone who knows nothing about stocks and doesn't have any special feelings about Berkshire, they should buy the S&P 500,\" Buffett said at a shareholder meeting in Los Angeles.</p><p>02 Be practical-even when the market loses its mind</p><p>Buffett recommends investors a long-term and practical approach, rather than \"making 30 or 40 trades a day.\"</p><p>During the conference, Buffett presented two slides showing the 20 largest companies in the world by market capitalization today and in 1989. None of the companies that made the list in '89 are from the 2021 edition. The lesson is this: things are fickle, and picking winners isn't easy.</p><p>\"If you only hold diversified stocks, like U.S. stocks, that would be my preference, but for more than 30 years,\" he said.</p><p>03 Don't expect pensions</p><p>One of the more alarming trends Buffett delved into at the Berkshire Hathaway conference, the increasingly precarious status of many state pension funds, is an issue he says he has been following since 2013.</p><p>\"Pensions are terrible in a lot of states,\" Buffett said. \"It's not getting better. Obviously, it's not getting better at all.\"</p><p>The pandemic has killed states' finances and has only exacerbated the current pension problem that has no long-term solution. Before the pandemic began, the state pension scheme was already short of $1 trillion to meet future obligations to retirees, according to Pew Charitable Trusts.</p><p>04Investors should be wary of certain investments</p><p>Buffett dumped airline stocks because of COVID-19.</p><p>The pandemic crisis has devastated the entire aviation industry, yet airlines have survived with the help of the government. But without that support, you're looking at a whole new air crash. The industry still has many months to go before it wants to return to normal business (and normal profit margins).</p><p>\"I still don't want to buy airlines,\" Buffett told his Berkshire shareholders.</p><p>Delta Air Lines (DAL), one of the airlines Berkshire dumped from its portfolio, saw its shares fall by more than half between March 1 and May 15 last year. Since then, the stock and other major U.S. airlines have recovered, but Buffett doesn't have much confidence in the airline industry's economic fundamentals.</p><p>05 Stick to your long-term plan</p><p>Stick to your financial goals, Buffett said. Buffett remains confident that the U.S. economy will rebound from the COVID-19 crisis, but he told shareholders that the future is far from certain.</p><p>\"You can bet on the U.S., but you have to be careful how you bet,\" he said. He later reiterated that the world can change in \"very, very dramatic ways.\"</p><p>Buffett has never wavered in his belief that holding stocks for a long time is the right investment strategy for a stable financial future. At the Berkshire conference, he was even reminded that he once said it was \"too short\" to hold a stock forever.</p><p>06 Make the Most of Low Interest Rates</p><p>With interest rates falling, Buffett says now is a good time to borrow money.</p><p>With the Fed's commitment to keep key interest rates near zero, Buffett sees an excellent opportunity for borrowers in 2021.</p><p>\"These are fascinating times,\" Buffett told investors, adding that the low-rate environment is \"very pleasant.\"</p><p>\"The economy fell off a cliff in March 2020,\" Buffett said. \"It's been revived in a very effective way through the actions of the Fed.\"</p><p>07 Avoid Credit Card Debt</p><p>If you have credit card debt, get rid of it, Buffett said.</p><p>The pandemic has led to business closures and layoffs, forcing millions of Americans to rely on credit cards for basic financial needs. It's a great survival strategy, but the resulting balance and high interest rates can create long-term financial stress.</p><p>At Berkshire's online shareholder meeting in 2020, he recalled the advice he gave to a friend who had a windfall and was thinking about the smartest way to spend. She told Buffett that she also has credit card debt-18% interest.</p><p>Buffett remembers saying to her, \"If I had 18% debt, the first thing I would do with the money I had on hand would be to pay it off.\" \"You can't borrow money at that rate all your life and get better off.\"</p><p>08 Always Prepare for the Worst</p><p>Buffett said that a \"catastrophe\" is coming. Calling Buffett an \"oracle\" is not for nothing. In 2019, he warned of a \"mega-catastrophe\" for the world that would dwarf the chaos caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Michael.</p><p>When the pandemic first hit the United States, Buffett said in an interview, \"I always felt that a pandemic would happen sooner or later.\"</p><p>You'd think someone who has invested so much in the insurance industry would have the foresight-Berkshire owns Geico and several other insurers-that preparing for the worst is a central part of the business model.</p><p>\"We've seen some strange things happen in the world over the last 15 months,\" he told his investors this year. \"And we're always aware of stranger things going to happen in the future.\"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/503261.html\">智通财经 </a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9beffeecb928009bf6287e307899ffe3","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/503261.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162626672","content_text":"许多人成功的方法之一是把每一次危机都当作一个机会来对待。尽管巴菲特向慈善机构捐赠了数十亿美元，但他的净资产在今年3月突破了1000亿美元大关。巴菲特不仅变得更富有，还为其他投资者带来了一些宝贵的经验教训。\n01  新投资吗?利用标普500\n在上个月伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的年会上，巴菲特谈到了他最喜欢的一项投资——该投资在疫情期间成为赢家。\n巴菲特说:“我推荐标普500指数基金，并且长期以来一直向人们推荐。”他还说，在他去世后，他留给妻子的90%的钱将进入标普500基金。\n标普500指数基金是模仿人们熟悉的跟踪美国500家最大公司的股票指数的共同基金或ETF。尽管疫情爆发，标普500指数在2020年飙升16%，并在2021年创下新高。\n巴菲特在洛杉矶的股东大会上表示:“我喜欢伯克希尔，但我认为一个对股票一无所知，对伯克希尔没有任何特殊感觉的人，他们应该购买标普500指数。”\n02  要实际——即使在市场失去理智的时候\n巴菲特建议投资者长期且实际的方法，而不是“每天进行30或40笔交易。”\n在会议期间，巴菲特展示了两张幻灯片，展示了当今和1989年全球市值最大的20家公司。89年上榜的公司没有一家是2021年版的。教训是:世事无常，挑选赢家并不容易。\n\"如果你只持有多元化的股票，比如美国股票，那将是我的偏好，但要持有超过30年，\"他说。\n03  不要指望养老金\n巴菲特在伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的会议上深入研究的一个更令人担忧的趋势，许多州养老基金的地位越来越不稳定，他说他从2013年就开始关注这个问题。\n巴菲特说:“很多州的养老金状况都很糟糕。”“情况并没有好转。显然，情况一点也没有好转。”\n疫情已经扼杀了各州的财政，只会加剧目前没有长期解决方案的养老金问题。Pew Charitable Trusts的数据显示，在大流行开始之前，国家养老金计划已经缺乏1万亿美元的资金来满足未来对退休人员的义务。\n04  投资者应该对某些投资保持警惕\n巴菲特因为COVID-19的原因抛售了航空股。\n疫情危机摧毁了整个航空行业，然而航空公司在政府的帮助下幸存下来。但如果没有这种支持，你会看到一场全新的空难。要想恢复正常的业务(以及正常的利润率)，该行业还有好几个月的时间。\n“我还是不想买航空公司，”巴菲特告诉他的伯克希尔股东。\n达美航空(DAL)是伯克希尔从其投资组合中抛售的航空公司之一，该公司股价在去年3月1日至5月15日期间下跌了一半以上。此后，该股和美国其他主要航空公司的股价都有所回升，但巴菲特对航空业的经济基本面没有多大信心。\n05  坚持你的长期计划\n巴菲特说，要坚持你的财务目标。巴菲特仍然相信，美国经济将从COVID - 19危机中反弹，但他告诉股东，未来远非确定。\n“你可以押注美国，但你必须小心如何押注，”他说。他后来重申，世界可以以“非常、非常戏剧性的方式”发生变化。\n巴菲特从来没有动摇过他的信念，长期持有股票是一个稳定的财务未来的正确投资策略。在伯克希尔的会议上，他甚至被提醒说，他曾经说过永远持有一只股票“太短了”。\n06  充分利用低利率\n随着利率的下降，巴菲特说现在是借钱的好时机。\n由于美联储承诺将关键利率维持在接近零的水平，巴菲特认为2021年借款人将有极好的机会。\n“这是一个迷人的时代，”巴菲特告诉投资者，并补充说低利率环境“非常令人愉快”。\n“经济在2020年3月跌落悬崖，”巴菲特说。“通过美联储的行动，它以一种非常有效的方式复活了。”\n07  避免信用卡债务\n巴菲特说，如果你有信用卡债务，那就摆脱它。\n疫情导致企业关闭和裁员，迫使数百万美国人依靠信用卡来满足基本的金融需求。这是一个很好的生存策略，但由此产生的平衡和高利率会造成长期的财务压力。\n在伯克希尔2020年的在线股东大会上，他回忆了自己给一位获得意外之财的朋友的建议，这位朋友当时正在考虑最明智的消费方式。她告诉巴菲特，她还有信用卡债务——利息为18%。\n巴菲特记得对她说:“如果我有18%的债务，我会用手头的钱做的第一件事就是还清。”“你不可能一辈子都以这样的利率借钱，然后过得更好。”\n08  总是做最坏打算\n巴菲特说，一场“大灾难”即将来临。称巴菲特为“神谕”不是没有原因的。2019年，他警告说，世界将迎来一场“特大灾难”，这将使卡特里娜飓风和迈克尔飓风造成的混乱相形见绌。\n当疫情首次袭击美国时，巴菲特在一次采访中说，“我一直觉得一场大流行迟早会发生。”\n你可能会认为，在保险业投入如此之多的人会有这样的远见——伯克希尔哈撒韦拥有Geico和其他几家保险公司——为最坏的情况做准备是商业模式的核心部分。\n“过去15个月里，我们看到世界上发生了一些奇怪的事情，”他今年告诉他的投资者。“而且我们总是意识到未来会发生更奇怪的事情。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127759612,"gmtCreate":1624870645036,"gmtModify":1703846663948,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"尤大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127759612","repostId":"1146211062","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146211062","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624868185,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146211062?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-28 16:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"48-year-old investment veterans predict: U.S. stocks may plummet by 65%-80% this fall!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146211062","media":"FX168","summary":"美联储低估了通胀的热度和持续时间，并指责财政支出增加和印钞是导致通胀的原因。","content":"<p>Text/TIER</p><p>At a time when the U.S. stock market is at a high level, another heavyweight has issued a warning voice. David Hunter, chief macro strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors with 48 years of market experience, recently warned that inflation will last longer than expected, forcing the Federal Reserve (FED) to tighten monetary policy, causing the U.S. stock market to plummet 65% to 80% by the end of this year.</p><p>The website Business Insider reports that so far, David Hunter, chief macro strategist at Contrarian macro Advisors, has mostly stayed on the right track with his forecasts. For example, in December, when the S&P 500 was around 3,700, its all-time high at the time, Hunter said he expected the index to surge to 4,500 in mid-2021, at the high end of Wall Street strategists' targets. Since then, the index has crossed 4,200 points, a record high.</p><p>He also predicted earlier this year that the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield would fall to around 1.2%, after the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield jumped more than 80 basis points to 1.73% between January and March.</p><p>To be fair, it's easy to be bullish on stocks in the first half of the year as the economy picked up thanks to COVID-19 vaccine vaccinations and strong fiscal stimulus. In December, JPMorgan called the stock market environment a \"market paradise.\"</p><p>But now is when Hunter's predictions get interesting. He reiterated last week that he thinks the S&P 500 will peak around July or August, which is a few weeks later.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eedb0c9969cabd85cd0b0a7d8b3b9056\" tg-width=\"921\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Screenshot source: Business Insider)</p><p>The report pointed out that the peaking process may seem benign at first, because the stock market may test the high again after peaking. But as the fall approaches, stocks will fall 65%-80% from around 4,500, he said. If it falls 65% from 4,500, the S&P 500 will drop to around 1,500.</p><p><b>The catalyst for this catastrophic slide will be inflation, Hunter said. He believes that the Fed underestimates the heat and duration of inflation, and blames increased fiscal spending and money printing for inflation.</b></p><p>He said that when high inflation persists, the Fed will be forced to tighten monetary policy, shrinking its balance sheet by slowing bond purchases, which will remove liquidity from the market. It is believed that the strong performance of stocks is related to high liquidity levels.</p><p>Hunter predicted in May this year that the Federal Reserve could withdraw up to $1 trillion from its balance sheet.</p><p>In a video interview with Adam Taggart, founder of investment consulting firm Wealthion, Hunter said: \"I think the perception that we can spend money like a drunk sailor without any consequences is leading the market to disaster.\"</p><p>The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left its policy rate unchanged at its June meeting and did not change its asset purchase plan, but the committee raised its inflation forecast for this year and next, suggesting that rate hike may be faster than expected.</p><p>The dot plot shows that more and more Fed officials are turning to \"hawks\": among the 18 officials who participated in the forecast, 7 officials expect to start a rate hike in 2022, compared with 4 in March this year; Thirteen officials are expected to start rate hike in 2023, and there were seven members in March this year.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce last Friday local time showed that the U.S. personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose at an annual rate of 3.9% in May, which was in line with expectations; The U.S. core PCE price index increased by 3.4% year-on-year in May, the largest year-on-year increase since April 1992.</p>","source":"fx168","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>48-year-old investment veterans predict: U.S. stocks may plummet by 65%-80% this fall!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n48-year-old investment veterans predict: U.S. stocks may plummet by 65%-80% this fall!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">FX168</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 16:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Text/TIER</p><p>At a time when the U.S. stock market is at a high level, another heavyweight has issued a warning voice. David Hunter, chief macro strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors with 48 years of market experience, recently warned that inflation will last longer than expected, forcing the Federal Reserve (FED) to tighten monetary policy, causing the U.S. stock market to plummet 65% to 80% by the end of this year.</p><p>The website Business Insider reports that so far, David Hunter, chief macro strategist at Contrarian macro Advisors, has mostly stayed on the right track with his forecasts. For example, in December, when the S&P 500 was around 3,700, its all-time high at the time, Hunter said he expected the index to surge to 4,500 in mid-2021, at the high end of Wall Street strategists' targets. Since then, the index has crossed 4,200 points, a record high.</p><p>He also predicted earlier this year that the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield would fall to around 1.2%, after the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield jumped more than 80 basis points to 1.73% between January and March.</p><p>To be fair, it's easy to be bullish on stocks in the first half of the year as the economy picked up thanks to COVID-19 vaccine vaccinations and strong fiscal stimulus. In December, JPMorgan called the stock market environment a \"market paradise.\"</p><p>But now is when Hunter's predictions get interesting. He reiterated last week that he thinks the S&P 500 will peak around July or August, which is a few weeks later.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eedb0c9969cabd85cd0b0a7d8b3b9056\" tg-width=\"921\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Screenshot source: Business Insider)</p><p>The report pointed out that the peaking process may seem benign at first, because the stock market may test the high again after peaking. But as the fall approaches, stocks will fall 65%-80% from around 4,500, he said. If it falls 65% from 4,500, the S&P 500 will drop to around 1,500.</p><p><b>The catalyst for this catastrophic slide will be inflation, Hunter said. He believes that the Fed underestimates the heat and duration of inflation, and blames increased fiscal spending and money printing for inflation.</b></p><p>He said that when high inflation persists, the Fed will be forced to tighten monetary policy, shrinking its balance sheet by slowing bond purchases, which will remove liquidity from the market. It is believed that the strong performance of stocks is related to high liquidity levels.</p><p>Hunter predicted in May this year that the Federal Reserve could withdraw up to $1 trillion from its balance sheet.</p><p>In a video interview with Adam Taggart, founder of investment consulting firm Wealthion, Hunter said: \"I think the perception that we can spend money like a drunk sailor without any consequences is leading the market to disaster.\"</p><p>The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left its policy rate unchanged at its June meeting and did not change its asset purchase plan, but the committee raised its inflation forecast for this year and next, suggesting that rate hike may be faster than expected.</p><p>The dot plot shows that more and more Fed officials are turning to \"hawks\": among the 18 officials who participated in the forecast, 7 officials expect to start a rate hike in 2022, compared with 4 in March this year; Thirteen officials are expected to start rate hike in 2023, and there were seven members in March this year.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce last Friday local time showed that the U.S. personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose at an annual rate of 3.9% in May, which was in line with expectations; The U.S. core PCE price index increased by 3.4% year-on-year in May, the largest year-on-year increase since April 1992.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://news.fx168.com.cn/stock/us/2106/5152829.shtml\">FX168</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8563c55eda230bf12ce63dc5314b95d0","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://news.fx168.com.cn/stock/us/2106/5152829.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146211062","content_text":"文 / TIER\n在美国股市处于高位之际，又有一位重量级人物发出警告声音。有48年市场经验的Contrarian Macro Advisors首席宏观策略师David Hunter日前警告称，通货膨胀将较预期更持久，导致美联储(FED)被迫紧缩货币政策，令美国股市在今年底前暴跌65%到80%。\n“商业内幕”网站(Business Insider)报道称，到目前为止，Contrarian macro Advisors首席宏观策略师David Hunter的预测基本上保持在正确的轨道上。例如，去年12月，当标普500指数处于3700点左右(当时的历史最高水平)时，Hunter表示，他预计该指数将在2021年年中飙升至4500点，处于华尔街策略师目标的高端。自那以来，该指数已突破4200点，创历史新高。\n他今年早些时候还预测，10年期美国国债收益率将降至1.2%左右，此前1月至3月，10年期美国国债收益率跃升80多个基点至1.73%。\n公平地说，今年上半年，由于新冠疫苗接种和强劲的财政刺激措施，经济回暖，人们很容易看好股市。去年12月，摩根大通称股市环境为“市场天堂”。\n但现在是Hunter的预测变得有趣的时候。他在上周重申，他认为标普500指数将在7月或8月左右见顶，也就是几周后。\n\n(截图来源：Business Insider)\n报道指出，触顶过程一开始可能看起来是良性的，因为股市可能会在见顶后再次测试高点。但他说，随着秋季临近，股市将从4,500点左右开始下跌65%-80%。如果从4,500点下跌65%，标准普尔500指数将跌至1,500点左右。\nHunter表示，引发这种灾难性下滑的催化剂将是通胀。他认为，美联储低估了通胀的热度和持续时间，并指责财政支出增加和印钞是导致通胀的原因。\n他表示，当高通胀持续时，美联储将被迫收紧货币政策，通过放缓债券购买来缩减资产负债表规模，这将从市场中移除流动性。人们认为，股市的强劲表现与高流动性水平有关。\nHunter曾在今年5月预测，美联储可能会从其资产负债表上撤出高达1万亿美元的资金。\nHunter在接受投资咨询公司Wealthion创始人亚当·塔格特(Adam Taggart)的视频采访时说：“我认为，认为我们可以像喝醉的水手那样花钱、且不用承担任何后果的看法，正让市场走向灾难。”\n美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)在6月会议上维持政策利率不变，也没有改变其资产购买计划，但该委员会上调了今明两年的通胀预期，暗示加息或快于预期。\n点阵图显示，越来越多的美联储官员转向“鹰派”：18名参与预测的官员中，7名官员预计在2022年开始加息，今年3月时为4名；13名官员预计在2023年开始加息，今年3月时为7名委员。\n美国商务部当地时间上周五公布的数据显示，美国5月个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数年率上升3.9%，升幅符合预期；美国5月核心PCE物价指数同比增长3.4%，创1992年4月以来的最大同比增幅。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":891,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127727134,"gmtCreate":1624870520628,"gmtModify":1703846660253,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"尤大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127727134","repostId":"1175717613","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175717613","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1624799107,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175717613?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-27 21:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Growth VS value, this is the biggest difference in US stocks right now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175717613","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"一场成长股与价值股之间的角力正在展开。\n\n行至年中，笼罩的美股上方的不确定性越来越大，对美股风格也产生了巨大影响，一场成长股与价值股之间的角力正在展开。\n就不确定性而言，一方面，美国货币和财政支持可能","content":"<p>A wrestle between growth stocks and value stocks is unfolding. By the middle of the year, the uncertainty above the U.S. stock market is growing, which has also had a huge impact on the style of the U.S. stock market. A wrestling between growth stocks and value stocks is unfolding.</p><p>In terms of uncertainty, on the one hand, U.S. monetary and fiscal support is likely to decrease, which will weaken the dynamism of the current economic recovery and put pressure on corporate earnings growth. In addition, the U.S. government's plan to raise taxes is another potential disincentive factor.</p><p>On the other hand, the trend of inflation has become another major uncertainty affecting the trend of U.S. stocks. If the upward pressure on prices continues, the result is that rate hike expectations rise, and U.S. stocks may go through a bumpy road.</p><p>These uncertainties dominate the trend of growth and value stocks, and expected changes in inflation and monetary policy will determine the style of U.S. stocks in the second half of the year.</p><p>Wall Street News previously mentioned that since the beginning of this year, as U.S. bond yields have risen rapidly and U.S. stocks have rotated rapidly, the stock prices of technology giants that have enjoyed great success during the epidemic have fallen sharply, while cyclical stocks that are more sensitive to economic recovery have rebounded collectively.</p><p>However, recently, as inflation expectations have cooled and U.S. bond yields have declined, technology stocks have regained market favor, especially since the Federal Reserve hinted that rate hike will be earlier than expected, the gains in technology stocks have intensified.</p><p>Many analysts sided with technology stocks, believing that after a correction, the valuations of U.S. technology giants have begun to show attractiveness, which means that these technology leaders are expected to continue to rise.</p><p>Barclays strategist Maneesh Deshpande believes U.S. technology stocks are relatively cheap right now. According to data from Barclays, FANMAG currently has an average forward P/E of 29.9 x. That's only marginally higher than the roughly 28 times before the pandemic began in December 2019, and a significant drop from the peak of 40 times in the middle of last year.</p><p>Jason Pride, chief investment officer of Glenmede Private Wealth, believes that the market for value stocks is not over yet, and value stocks will outperform technology stocks:</p><p>We are still in the midst of a fundamental recovery, with improved economic growth and revenues. Our base assumption is that inflation will eventually stabilize between 2% and 3%, which will benefit value stocks more than growth stocks. Morgan Stanley Asset Management also prefers value stocks. Andrew Slimmon, senior portfolio manager at the agency, said that when the economy is stronger, there is a tendency to hold inflation-sensitive stocks, and people may underestimate the duration of this cycle.</p><p>Slimmon pointed out that value stocks are still cheap relative to the broader market, and the phase of value stocks' overperformance will continue.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Growth VS value, this is the biggest difference in US stocks right now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGrowth VS value, this is the biggest difference in US stocks right now\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-27 21:05</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A wrestle between growth stocks and value stocks is unfolding. By the middle of the year, the uncertainty above the U.S. stock market is growing, which has also had a huge impact on the style of the U.S. stock market. A wrestling between growth stocks and value stocks is unfolding.</p><p>In terms of uncertainty, on the one hand, U.S. monetary and fiscal support is likely to decrease, which will weaken the dynamism of the current economic recovery and put pressure on corporate earnings growth. In addition, the U.S. government's plan to raise taxes is another potential disincentive factor.</p><p>On the other hand, the trend of inflation has become another major uncertainty affecting the trend of U.S. stocks. If the upward pressure on prices continues, the result is that rate hike expectations rise, and U.S. stocks may go through a bumpy road.</p><p>These uncertainties dominate the trend of growth and value stocks, and expected changes in inflation and monetary policy will determine the style of U.S. stocks in the second half of the year.</p><p>Wall Street News previously mentioned that since the beginning of this year, as U.S. bond yields have risen rapidly and U.S. stocks have rotated rapidly, the stock prices of technology giants that have enjoyed great success during the epidemic have fallen sharply, while cyclical stocks that are more sensitive to economic recovery have rebounded collectively.</p><p>However, recently, as inflation expectations have cooled and U.S. bond yields have declined, technology stocks have regained market favor, especially since the Federal Reserve hinted that rate hike will be earlier than expected, the gains in technology stocks have intensified.</p><p>Many analysts sided with technology stocks, believing that after a correction, the valuations of U.S. technology giants have begun to show attractiveness, which means that these technology leaders are expected to continue to rise.</p><p>Barclays strategist Maneesh Deshpande believes U.S. technology stocks are relatively cheap right now. According to data from Barclays, FANMAG currently has an average forward P/E of 29.9 x. That's only marginally higher than the roughly 28 times before the pandemic began in December 2019, and a significant drop from the peak of 40 times in the middle of last year.</p><p>Jason Pride, chief investment officer of Glenmede Private Wealth, believes that the market for value stocks is not over yet, and value stocks will outperform technology stocks:</p><p>We are still in the midst of a fundamental recovery, with improved economic growth and revenues. Our base assumption is that inflation will eventually stabilize between 2% and 3%, which will benefit value stocks more than growth stocks. Morgan Stanley Asset Management also prefers value stocks. Andrew Slimmon, senior portfolio manager at the agency, said that when the economy is stronger, there is a tendency to hold inflation-sensitive stocks, and people may underestimate the duration of this cycle.</p><p>Slimmon pointed out that value stocks are still cheap relative to the broader market, and the phase of value stocks' overperformance will continue.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d11890cd6ccd454a56d86737fd3353","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175717613","content_text":"一场成长股与价值股之间的角力正在展开。\n\n行至年中，笼罩的美股上方的不确定性越来越大，对美股风格也产生了巨大影响，一场成长股与价值股之间的角力正在展开。\n就不确定性而言，一方面，美国货币和财政支持可能会减少，这将削弱当前经济复苏的活力，并对企业盈利增长造成压力。此外美国政府酝酿提高税收的计划是另一个潜在的抑制因素。\n另一方面，通胀走势成为牵动美股走势的另一大不确定性，如果价格的上行压力持续，结果是加息预期上升，美股可能会经历一段坎坷之路。\n这些不确定性主宰着成长和价值股票走势，通胀和货币政策走向预期的变动将决定美股下半年的风格。\n华尔街见闻此前提及，今年初以来，随着美债收益率快速走高，美股快速轮动，疫情期间风光无限的科技巨头们股价大幅回调，而对经济复苏较为敏感的周期股集体反弹。\n但近期，随着通胀预期降温，美债收益率下行，科技股重获市场青睐，尤其是美联储暗示将早于预期加息以来，科技股涨势加剧。\n有不少分析师站队科技股，认为经过一番回调，目前美国科技巨头们的估值已经开始彰显吸引力，这意味着这些科技领头羊有望继续上涨。\n巴克莱策略师Maneesh Deshpande认为目前美国科技股相对便宜。巴克莱(Barclays)的数据显示，FANMAG目前的平均预期市盈率为29.9倍。这只比2019年12月大流行开始前的约28倍高一点点，比去年年中40倍的峰值大幅下降。\n格伦米德(Glenmede)私人财富首席投资官Jason Pride则认为，价值股的行情还未结束，价值股将跑赢科技股：\n\n 我们仍处于基本面复苏之中，经济增长和收入都有所提高。我们的基本假设是，通胀最终会稳定在2%至3%之间，这对价值股的益处将大于成长股。\n\n摩根士丹利资产管理公司也偏好价值股。该机构高级投资组合经理Andrew Slimmon表示，在经济形势更为强劲的时候，倾向于持有对通胀敏感的股票，而人们可能低估了这个周期的持续时间。\nSlimmon指出，相对于更广泛的市场，价值型股票仍然很便宜，价值股表现超大盘的阶段将持续下去。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127985303,"gmtCreate":1624816118202,"gmtModify":1703845492768,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"尤大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up","listText":"Up","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127985303","repostId":"1175717613","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175717613","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1624799107,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175717613?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-27 21:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Growth VS value, this is the biggest difference in US stocks right now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175717613","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"一场成长股与价值股之间的角力正在展开。\n\n行至年中，笼罩的美股上方的不确定性越来越大，对美股风格也产生了巨大影响，一场成长股与价值股之间的角力正在展开。\n就不确定性而言，一方面，美国货币和财政支持可能","content":"<p>A wrestle between growth stocks and value stocks is unfolding. By the middle of the year, the uncertainty above the U.S. stock market is growing, which has also had a huge impact on the style of the U.S. stock market. A wrestling between growth stocks and value stocks is unfolding.</p><p>In terms of uncertainty, on the one hand, U.S. monetary and fiscal support is likely to decrease, which will weaken the dynamism of the current economic recovery and put pressure on corporate earnings growth. In addition, the U.S. government's plan to raise taxes is another potential disincentive factor.</p><p>On the other hand, the trend of inflation has become another major uncertainty affecting the trend of U.S. stocks. If the upward pressure on prices continues, the result is that rate hike expectations rise, and U.S. stocks may go through a bumpy road.</p><p>These uncertainties dominate the trend of growth and value stocks, and expected changes in inflation and monetary policy will determine the style of U.S. stocks in the second half of the year.</p><p>Wall Street News previously mentioned that since the beginning of this year, as U.S. bond yields have risen rapidly and U.S. stocks have rotated rapidly, the stock prices of technology giants that have enjoyed great success during the epidemic have fallen sharply, while cyclical stocks that are more sensitive to economic recovery have rebounded collectively.</p><p>However, recently, as inflation expectations have cooled and U.S. bond yields have declined, technology stocks have regained market favor, especially since the Federal Reserve hinted that rate hike will be earlier than expected, the gains in technology stocks have intensified.</p><p>Many analysts sided with technology stocks, believing that after a correction, the valuations of U.S. technology giants have begun to show attractiveness, which means that these technology leaders are expected to continue to rise.</p><p>Barclays strategist Maneesh Deshpande believes U.S. technology stocks are relatively cheap right now. According to data from Barclays, FANMAG currently has an average forward P/E of 29.9 x. That's only marginally higher than the roughly 28 times before the pandemic began in December 2019, and a significant drop from the peak of 40 times in the middle of last year.</p><p>Jason Pride, chief investment officer of Glenmede Private Wealth, believes that the market for value stocks is not over yet, and value stocks will outperform technology stocks:</p><p>We are still in the midst of a fundamental recovery, with improved economic growth and revenues. Our base assumption is that inflation will eventually stabilize between 2% and 3%, which will benefit value stocks more than growth stocks. Morgan Stanley Asset Management also prefers value stocks. Andrew Slimmon, senior portfolio manager at the agency, said that when the economy is stronger, there is a tendency to hold inflation-sensitive stocks, and people may underestimate the duration of this cycle.</p><p>Slimmon pointed out that value stocks are still cheap relative to the broader market, and the phase of value stocks' overperformance will continue.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Growth VS value, this is the biggest difference in US stocks right now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGrowth VS value, this is the biggest difference in US stocks right now\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-27 21:05</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A wrestle between growth stocks and value stocks is unfolding. By the middle of the year, the uncertainty above the U.S. stock market is growing, which has also had a huge impact on the style of the U.S. stock market. A wrestling between growth stocks and value stocks is unfolding.</p><p>In terms of uncertainty, on the one hand, U.S. monetary and fiscal support is likely to decrease, which will weaken the dynamism of the current economic recovery and put pressure on corporate earnings growth. In addition, the U.S. government's plan to raise taxes is another potential disincentive factor.</p><p>On the other hand, the trend of inflation has become another major uncertainty affecting the trend of U.S. stocks. If the upward pressure on prices continues, the result is that rate hike expectations rise, and U.S. stocks may go through a bumpy road.</p><p>These uncertainties dominate the trend of growth and value stocks, and expected changes in inflation and monetary policy will determine the style of U.S. stocks in the second half of the year.</p><p>Wall Street News previously mentioned that since the beginning of this year, as U.S. bond yields have risen rapidly and U.S. stocks have rotated rapidly, the stock prices of technology giants that have enjoyed great success during the epidemic have fallen sharply, while cyclical stocks that are more sensitive to economic recovery have rebounded collectively.</p><p>However, recently, as inflation expectations have cooled and U.S. bond yields have declined, technology stocks have regained market favor, especially since the Federal Reserve hinted that rate hike will be earlier than expected, the gains in technology stocks have intensified.</p><p>Many analysts sided with technology stocks, believing that after a correction, the valuations of U.S. technology giants have begun to show attractiveness, which means that these technology leaders are expected to continue to rise.</p><p>Barclays strategist Maneesh Deshpande believes U.S. technology stocks are relatively cheap right now. According to data from Barclays, FANMAG currently has an average forward P/E of 29.9 x. That's only marginally higher than the roughly 28 times before the pandemic began in December 2019, and a significant drop from the peak of 40 times in the middle of last year.</p><p>Jason Pride, chief investment officer of Glenmede Private Wealth, believes that the market for value stocks is not over yet, and value stocks will outperform technology stocks:</p><p>We are still in the midst of a fundamental recovery, with improved economic growth and revenues. Our base assumption is that inflation will eventually stabilize between 2% and 3%, which will benefit value stocks more than growth stocks. Morgan Stanley Asset Management also prefers value stocks. Andrew Slimmon, senior portfolio manager at the agency, said that when the economy is stronger, there is a tendency to hold inflation-sensitive stocks, and people may underestimate the duration of this cycle.</p><p>Slimmon pointed out that value stocks are still cheap relative to the broader market, and the phase of value stocks' overperformance will continue.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d11890cd6ccd454a56d86737fd3353","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175717613","content_text":"一场成长股与价值股之间的角力正在展开。\n\n行至年中，笼罩的美股上方的不确定性越来越大，对美股风格也产生了巨大影响，一场成长股与价值股之间的角力正在展开。\n就不确定性而言，一方面，美国货币和财政支持可能会减少，这将削弱当前经济复苏的活力，并对企业盈利增长造成压力。此外美国政府酝酿提高税收的计划是另一个潜在的抑制因素。\n另一方面，通胀走势成为牵动美股走势的另一大不确定性，如果价格的上行压力持续，结果是加息预期上升，美股可能会经历一段坎坷之路。\n这些不确定性主宰着成长和价值股票走势，通胀和货币政策走向预期的变动将决定美股下半年的风格。\n华尔街见闻此前提及，今年初以来，随着美债收益率快速走高，美股快速轮动，疫情期间风光无限的科技巨头们股价大幅回调，而对经济复苏较为敏感的周期股集体反弹。\n但近期，随着通胀预期降温，美债收益率下行，科技股重获市场青睐，尤其是美联储暗示将早于预期加息以来，科技股涨势加剧。\n有不少分析师站队科技股，认为经过一番回调，目前美国科技巨头们的估值已经开始彰显吸引力，这意味着这些科技领头羊有望继续上涨。\n巴克莱策略师Maneesh Deshpande认为目前美国科技股相对便宜。巴克莱(Barclays)的数据显示，FANMAG目前的平均预期市盈率为29.9倍。这只比2019年12月大流行开始前的约28倍高一点点，比去年年中40倍的峰值大幅下降。\n格伦米德(Glenmede)私人财富首席投资官Jason Pride则认为，价值股的行情还未结束，价值股将跑赢科技股：\n\n 我们仍处于基本面复苏之中，经济增长和收入都有所提高。我们的基本假设是，通胀最终会稳定在2%至3%之间，这对价值股的益处将大于成长股。\n\n摩根士丹利资产管理公司也偏好价值股。该机构高级投资组合经理Andrew Slimmon表示，在经济形势更为强劲的时候，倾向于持有对通胀敏感的股票，而人们可能低估了这个周期的持续时间。\nSlimmon指出，相对于更广泛的市场，价值型股票仍然很便宜，价值股表现超大盘的阶段将持续下去。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1107,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":163920199,"gmtCreate":1623857241411,"gmtModify":1703821676844,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"尤大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/163920199","repostId":"1146756294","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146756294","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623856744,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146756294?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-16 23:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Some WSB concept stocks fell, and AMC cinemas fell more than 10%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146756294","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月16日，部分WSB概念股下行，AMC院线跌超10%，黑莓跌超8%，游戏驿站、ContextLogic跌超4%。","content":"<p>On June 16, some WSB concept stocks fell.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>Fell more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">Blackberry</a>Fell more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WISH\">ContextLogic</a>Fell more than 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbeb078de2de6d1611ad66c88cca74b4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Some WSB concept stocks fell, and AMC cinemas fell more than 10%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSome WSB concept stocks fell, and AMC cinemas fell more than 10%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-16 23:19</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 16, some WSB concept stocks fell.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>Fell more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">Blackberry</a>Fell more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WISH\">ContextLogic</a>Fell more than 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbeb078de2de6d1611ad66c88cca74b4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"BB":"黑莓","GME":"游戏驿站","AMC":"AMC院线"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146756294","content_text":"6月16日，部分WSB概念股下行，AMC院线跌超10%，黑莓跌超8%，游戏驿站、ContextLogic跌超4%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WISH":0.9,"BB":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":805,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114493047,"gmtCreate":1623084288689,"gmtModify":1704195816859,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"尤大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tt","listText":"Tt","text":"Tt","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114493047","repostId":"1122699136","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122699136","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623079809,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122699136?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-07 23:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The U.S. Food and Drug Administration recently approved Alzheimer's drugs for the first time in about 20 years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122699136","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美国食品药品管理局（FDA）批准Biogen的Aduhelm用于治疗阿尔茨海默症，但要求该公司在获批之后继续实施临床试验。FDA表示，Biogen的试验数据高度复杂，存在不确定性。Cassava Sc","content":"<p>The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved Biogen's Aduhelm for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease, but required the company to continue clinical trials after approval. The FDA said Biogen's trial data is highly complex and subject to uncertainties. Cassava Sciences (SAVA) maintained an increase of about 11%, and once recorded a new intraday high since February 4 at $75.09. The company announced at that time that the research on Alzheimer's disease therapy had made positive progress, and the research results supported the third phase of the drug Simufilam clinical trial.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9396c36caa0a2212aa822afde50909f7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Eli Lilly and Pharmaceuticals rose more than 11%, refreshing the intraday record high to $227; Eli Lilly is also developing the same track drug Donanemab. The company's Alzheimer's trial drug data published in the New England Journal of Medicine in mid-March showed that its drug prospects were good, but not as gratifying as investors expected.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/592bbd2acb646bd314dcc9178bac7142\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The U.S. Food and Drug Administration recently approved Alzheimer's drugs for the first time in about 20 years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe U.S. Food and Drug Administration recently approved Alzheimer's drugs for the first time in about 20 years\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-07 23:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved Biogen's Aduhelm for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease, but required the company to continue clinical trials after approval. The FDA said Biogen's trial data is highly complex and subject to uncertainties. Cassava Sciences (SAVA) maintained an increase of about 11%, and once recorded a new intraday high since February 4 at $75.09. The company announced at that time that the research on Alzheimer's disease therapy had made positive progress, and the research results supported the third phase of the drug Simufilam clinical trial.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9396c36caa0a2212aa822afde50909f7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Eli Lilly and Pharmaceuticals rose more than 11%, refreshing the intraday record high to $227; Eli Lilly is also developing the same track drug Donanemab. The company's Alzheimer's trial drug data published in the New England Journal of Medicine in mid-March showed that its drug prospects were good, but not as gratifying as investors expected.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/592bbd2acb646bd314dcc9178bac7142\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85675909dc6c67ee0181339c18bcfdff","relate_stocks":{"LLY":"礼来","SAVA":"Cassava Sciences Inc"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122699136","content_text":"美国食品药品管理局（FDA）批准Biogen的Aduhelm用于治疗阿尔茨海默症，但要求该公司在获批之后继续实施临床试验。FDA表示，Biogen的试验数据高度复杂，存在不确定性。Cassava Sciences（SAVA）维持大约11%的涨幅，一度以75.09美元录得2月4日以来盘中新高，该公司当时宣布老年痴呆症疗法研究取得积极进展，研究结果支持对药品Simufilam进行第三阶段临床试验。礼来制药涨超11%，刷新盘中历史高位至227美元；礼来同样在开发相同赛道药物多纳单抗(Donanemab)。该公司3月中旬在《新英格兰医学杂志》刊发的阿尔茨海默症试验药品数据显示，其药品前景不错，但并没有投资者所期望的那么喜人。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LLY":0.9,"SAVA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":587,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112152848,"gmtCreate":1622857255084,"gmtModify":1704192499937,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"尤大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"tsl","listText":"tsl","text":"tsl","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112152848","repostId":"1172689661","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172689661","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622853490,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172689661?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-05 08:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Will the next Tesla come from China?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172689661","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"汽车行业的历史上，其实从来就不缺失败者的身影。比如，在20世纪10年代，美国的汽车企业数量多达250家左右，而到了20世纪结束的时候，真正有分量的玩家就只剩下了3家，福特、通用汽车和克莱斯勒。最近几年","content":"<p>In the history of the automobile industry, there has never been a shortage of losers. For example, in the 1910s, there were about 250 automobile companies in the United States, but by the end of the 20th century, there were only three truly significant players left, Ford,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>And Chrysler. In recent years, an electric vehicle boom that originated in the United States has gradually developed and covered the whole world.</p><p>AIWAYS,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Automobile, WM Motor,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>, Chinese start-up players are already producing their own products in thousands. In Europe, Croatia's Rimac and Spain's Hispano Suiza are building super electric cars, while the UK's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARVL\">Arrival</a>Then it is producing electric trains. American companies such as Canoo, Fisker, Lordstown, Lucid and Rivian also hope to reach mass production quickly. Foxconn in Taiwan has always been known as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>OEMs are well-known, and they will soon assemble electric vehicles for other brands of car manufacturers. As for Apple, their next ace product is the so-called iCar.</p><p>Now, most of the<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABCD\">newly born</a>Electric vehicle companies are losing money, and some of them are not even able to generate revenue. However, everyone has clearly seen the general trend of the battery-powered industry and hopes to get a share of the pie in the future. Every company is ambitious to be the next<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>-This industry pioneer has successfully used batteries and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Software replaces the internal combustion engine. After a short development process, Elon Musk's company has become the world's largest automobile company by market value, and its net worth is equivalent to the sum of the next three largest automobile manufacturers in the world.</p><p>EngelbertWimmer of consulting firm e&Co admits that Tesla's market value of nearly $600 billion has become a \"torch guiding the road\". Now, investors are looking for the next potential target. In 2018, Nio landed in the New York market, and last year, XPeng and Ideal also appeared one after another. The net worth of these three start-up companies is now equivalent to that of many well-known old car manufacturers, or even surpass it. Some American electric vehicle start-ups have used the channel curve of special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) to go public, and have also gained billions of net worth at every turn.</p><p>Investment bank LincolnInternational's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HTZ\">Hertz</a>(Patrick von Herz) characterized the current situation as a \"global fanaticism\". XPeng He, the founder of XPeng Motors, estimates that this market will expand to about 300 players, and when the dust settles, there will be only about 10 players left. So, how can these numerous challengers avoid the fate of being eventually forgotten?</p><p>To survive, the most basic blueprint contains three elements. First, they must find a suitable positioning as a starting point for their expansion. Then, they need to actually achieve mass production of the car. Finally, they must build their own sales and distribution network. Most players tend to declare failure in the first or second step. Ironically, the players who are really most likely to replicate Tesla's success right now may be the same players who don't look like Tesla at all.</p><p>First of all, you must find your own suitable battlefield, and in this respect, geographical location is undoubtedly very important, such as investment banking<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEF\">Jefferies</a>PhilippHouchois believes that the next Tesla will come from China. Chinese consumers are extremely interested in new technologies, and the government continues to support the development of vehicle electrification, which gives Chinese challengers a very favorable starting point.</p><p>Among Chinese players, Nio is currently the largest, which will produce 44,000 cars in 2020, and the company's market value is approximately US $69 billion. XPeng and Ideal have market capitalizations of only $28 billion and $22 billion respectively, which also look quite attractive. These companies can easily obtain financing support, which enables their local and overseas expansion plans to be rolled out smoothly. XPeng has begun selling its products in Norwegian, the most enthusiastic market for electric vehicles among European consumers, and Nio will soon enter this market.</p><p>Geography is important, but finding your own suitable market segment is even more important. Tesla is not the first company in the world to produce electric vehicles, but they are the first company to produce large and high-priced electric models. Only in this way can high battery costs be absorbed into the sales price. Many start-ups are also targeting the high-priced SUV and four-door sedan segments, where profit margins are the highest.</p><p>However, the competitive pressure from those established players, such as Volkswagen's Audi and Porsche, as well as Mercedes, has become increasingly prominent. In April, China aims to become a world-class enterprise<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00175\">Geely Automobile</a>The high-priced electric model Zeekr was also released. Accompanying General Motors and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>Now that it is also beginning to join the tide of electrification, this market is destined to become more and more crowded.</p><p>In this case, other model markets that have not been deeply penetrated by these players may be a good entry point for latecomers. For example, driven by the great development of e-commerce during the epidemic, the demand for light commercial vehicles has become increasingly strong. Alastair Hayfield of consulting firm Interact Analysis pointed out that delivery vehicles are currently \"not Teslaized\". At present, the manufacturers of these vehicles only mechanically change the internal combustion engine to electric power on the basis of existing models, which directly affects the performance and makes customers deeply unhappy. That leaves opportunities for companies like Arrival and Rivian.</p><p>Another potential niche to keep an eye on is supercars. Those rich people are perfectly happy to spend $2 million to add another new addition to their garage. Croatia's Rimac and Italy's Pininfarina both use this model as a testing ground, where they can sell the mature technology tested to other car manufacturers. China's Silk EV is considering Hongqi S9 as a bridgehead to enter the mass market.</p><p>However, finding a suitable market entry point alone is not enough. Gu Hongdi, president of XPeng, admitted that new players in the market must come up with something really different. CEO Peter Rawlinson said frankly that for many years, the industry has been full of players who can only be regarded as mediocre in technology. Everyone \"didn't realize that this was actually a technology competition.\" As cars become more and more like personal electronic devices, to gain industry leadership, an enterprise must first be a technology company, then an automobile manufacturer. Liu Yangwei, chairman of Foxconn, also said that in the future, the driving experience will be \"driven by software and defined by software\".</p><p>PedroPacheco of Gartner, a consulting firm, stressed that for investors, the eye-catching intellectual property of enterprises will be a \"beautiful business card\". However, like many Tesla imitators in China, it is far from enough to just put a huge touch screen in an electric car. Tesla has established clear entry barriers-wireless software upgrades, proprietary charging networks, online direct sales, etc.</p><p>Therefore, newcomers must find ways to leave their own technological mark on the industry. Lucid's engineers have pushed the endurance of their batteries all the way to 832 kilometers. For Chinese consumers who do not have home charging conditions, Nio provides a three-minute battery replacement service. XPeng claims that their voice interaction system is the first in the industry. Fisker and Canoo put more emphasis on the right to use cars rather than ownership, and launched product subscription services based on this philosophy.</p><p>In the end, all the above, which ones people really need, and which ones are just sales tricks, only consumers can give the final answer. However, it obviously takes time to get this answer, and it must wait until the new model is produced and sold. To produce thousands of cars every year is already a difficult enough challenge for these new players, but it can't be easier to lose a lot of money in the process. To truly mass produce on a large scale and obtain relative profits, for them, it is still a matter of another dimension. Even Tesla almost fell into \"production hell\".</p><p>No matter how gorgeous the advantages of software are, they need real support from the production line. From this perspective, as pointed out in the research report of brokerage Bernstein, producing an electric vehicle is not fundamentally different from producing a traditional internal combustion engine vehicle, and the cost is still excessive. A newly built car factory with an annual output of 100,000 electric vehicles will also require an investment of at least US $1 billion.</p><p>In order to bypass this difficulty, some challengers have chosen to transform existing factories. For example, Tesla acquired an abandoned car factory in Fremont, California, at a low price. Rivian moved into a former Mitsubishi factory in Illinois. Some other players adopt the model of cooperation with established car companies, which help solve complex supply chain problems. Chinese<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Cooperate with Geely, Huawei cooperates with BAIC, Changan, and GAC.</p><p>Both Fisker and Nio have adopted an asset-light architecture, outsourcing manufacturing to contract manufacturers of large automakers.</p><p>Arrival's approach is perhaps the most innovative. While Tesla and other players are chasing the grand, the British company has gone micro. Unlike passenger cars, commercial vehicles have no requirements in terms of fashion or customization, so they don't have to go to a lot of trouble on battery panels and arrange special production lines. Therefore, they only need to spend 40 million to 50 million dollars to acquire and modify smaller factories, so that the annual output can reach 10,000 units, and quickly scale up with low risk.</p><p>The last important hurdle in front of electric vehicle products is consumers. Most new electric vehicle players have chosen Tesla's online direct sales plus showroom model, bypassing the traditional dealer network. However, they still need a complete service network at least. This kind of network is also expensive, and it is no less difficult to scale up than the manufacturing process. Gartner's Pacheco pointed out that even Tesla is still developing in this respect. For example, in the United States, the three traditional giants in Detroit have nearly 10,000 dealers, and the latter also provides services, while Tesla has only about 135 service providers.</p><p>Many new companies don't even reach this level. Due to this limitation, some players have now suffered setbacks. Dyson, a British company famous for its vacuum cleaners, once invested 500 million pounds (about 640 million US dollars) to enter the electric vehicle market, but in 2019, the company found that this business was likely to never make money, and they had to Cao Cao End. In the same year, if Nio had not been rescued by the Hefei local government, it would have almost slipped into bankruptcy. China's numerous and numerous smaller electric vehicle companies will most likely go through a round of bloodbath when their ideas and money run out. Fisker itself is a product of a rebirth from the ashes. The company went bankrupt once in 2013.</p><p>As the complexity of automobile production becomes clearer and clearer, it is increasingly difficult for investors to buy hype accounts. Lordstown's share price has fallen as much as 65% since its February peak because it lowered its pickup truck production forecast and acknowledged the need for new funds. Canoo's share price is only half of what it was when it went public in December last year due to increasingly strong doubts about its development plans.</p><p>Aakash Arora of consulting firm BCG pointed out highly generally that these new companies must be able to create their own brands, and so far, only Tesla has really made their brands deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. It often takes years to truly establish a reliable brand image, but these new players are burning money surprisingly fast.</p><p>All in all, to enter this field, a truly qualified new player must have a resounding name, strong financial resources, and proven technological strength, and there is actually only one company that meets all these requirements, and that is Apple. The iPhone manufacturer has actually been working on electric vehicle research for quite some years. At present, the latest statement is that their products will be launched before 2025. By then, some potential competitors may have long been forgotten by the world.</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will the next Tesla come from China?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill the next Tesla come from China?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯美股</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-05 08:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In the history of the automobile industry, there has never been a shortage of losers. For example, in the 1910s, there were about 250 automobile companies in the United States, but by the end of the 20th century, there were only three truly significant players left, Ford,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>And Chrysler. In recent years, an electric vehicle boom that originated in the United States has gradually developed and covered the whole world.</p><p>AIWAYS,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Automobile, WM Motor,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>, Chinese start-up players are already producing their own products in thousands. In Europe, Croatia's Rimac and Spain's Hispano Suiza are building super electric cars, while the UK's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARVL\">Arrival</a>Then it is producing electric trains. American companies such as Canoo, Fisker, Lordstown, Lucid and Rivian also hope to reach mass production quickly. Foxconn in Taiwan has always been known as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>OEMs are well-known, and they will soon assemble electric vehicles for other brands of car manufacturers. As for Apple, their next ace product is the so-called iCar.</p><p>Now, most of the<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABCD\">newly born</a>Electric vehicle companies are losing money, and some of them are not even able to generate revenue. However, everyone has clearly seen the general trend of the battery-powered industry and hopes to get a share of the pie in the future. Every company is ambitious to be the next<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>-This industry pioneer has successfully used batteries and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Software replaces the internal combustion engine. After a short development process, Elon Musk's company has become the world's largest automobile company by market value, and its net worth is equivalent to the sum of the next three largest automobile manufacturers in the world.</p><p>EngelbertWimmer of consulting firm e&Co admits that Tesla's market value of nearly $600 billion has become a \"torch guiding the road\". Now, investors are looking for the next potential target. In 2018, Nio landed in the New York market, and last year, XPeng and Ideal also appeared one after another. The net worth of these three start-up companies is now equivalent to that of many well-known old car manufacturers, or even surpass it. Some American electric vehicle start-ups have used the channel curve of special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) to go public, and have also gained billions of net worth at every turn.</p><p>Investment bank LincolnInternational's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HTZ\">Hertz</a>(Patrick von Herz) characterized the current situation as a \"global fanaticism\". XPeng He, the founder of XPeng Motors, estimates that this market will expand to about 300 players, and when the dust settles, there will be only about 10 players left. So, how can these numerous challengers avoid the fate of being eventually forgotten?</p><p>To survive, the most basic blueprint contains three elements. First, they must find a suitable positioning as a starting point for their expansion. Then, they need to actually achieve mass production of the car. Finally, they must build their own sales and distribution network. Most players tend to declare failure in the first or second step. Ironically, the players who are really most likely to replicate Tesla's success right now may be the same players who don't look like Tesla at all.</p><p>First of all, you must find your own suitable battlefield, and in this respect, geographical location is undoubtedly very important, such as investment banking<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEF\">Jefferies</a>PhilippHouchois believes that the next Tesla will come from China. Chinese consumers are extremely interested in new technologies, and the government continues to support the development of vehicle electrification, which gives Chinese challengers a very favorable starting point.</p><p>Among Chinese players, Nio is currently the largest, which will produce 44,000 cars in 2020, and the company's market value is approximately US $69 billion. XPeng and Ideal have market capitalizations of only $28 billion and $22 billion respectively, which also look quite attractive. These companies can easily obtain financing support, which enables their local and overseas expansion plans to be rolled out smoothly. XPeng has begun selling its products in Norwegian, the most enthusiastic market for electric vehicles among European consumers, and Nio will soon enter this market.</p><p>Geography is important, but finding your own suitable market segment is even more important. Tesla is not the first company in the world to produce electric vehicles, but they are the first company to produce large and high-priced electric models. Only in this way can high battery costs be absorbed into the sales price. Many start-ups are also targeting the high-priced SUV and four-door sedan segments, where profit margins are the highest.</p><p>However, the competitive pressure from those established players, such as Volkswagen's Audi and Porsche, as well as Mercedes, has become increasingly prominent. In April, China aims to become a world-class enterprise<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00175\">Geely Automobile</a>The high-priced electric model Zeekr was also released. Accompanying General Motors and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>Now that it is also beginning to join the tide of electrification, this market is destined to become more and more crowded.</p><p>In this case, other model markets that have not been deeply penetrated by these players may be a good entry point for latecomers. For example, driven by the great development of e-commerce during the epidemic, the demand for light commercial vehicles has become increasingly strong. Alastair Hayfield of consulting firm Interact Analysis pointed out that delivery vehicles are currently \"not Teslaized\". At present, the manufacturers of these vehicles only mechanically change the internal combustion engine to electric power on the basis of existing models, which directly affects the performance and makes customers deeply unhappy. That leaves opportunities for companies like Arrival and Rivian.</p><p>Another potential niche to keep an eye on is supercars. Those rich people are perfectly happy to spend $2 million to add another new addition to their garage. Croatia's Rimac and Italy's Pininfarina both use this model as a testing ground, where they can sell the mature technology tested to other car manufacturers. China's Silk EV is considering Hongqi S9 as a bridgehead to enter the mass market.</p><p>However, finding a suitable market entry point alone is not enough. Gu Hongdi, president of XPeng, admitted that new players in the market must come up with something really different. CEO Peter Rawlinson said frankly that for many years, the industry has been full of players who can only be regarded as mediocre in technology. Everyone \"didn't realize that this was actually a technology competition.\" As cars become more and more like personal electronic devices, to gain industry leadership, an enterprise must first be a technology company, then an automobile manufacturer. Liu Yangwei, chairman of Foxconn, also said that in the future, the driving experience will be \"driven by software and defined by software\".</p><p>PedroPacheco of Gartner, a consulting firm, stressed that for investors, the eye-catching intellectual property of enterprises will be a \"beautiful business card\". However, like many Tesla imitators in China, it is far from enough to just put a huge touch screen in an electric car. Tesla has established clear entry barriers-wireless software upgrades, proprietary charging networks, online direct sales, etc.</p><p>Therefore, newcomers must find ways to leave their own technological mark on the industry. Lucid's engineers have pushed the endurance of their batteries all the way to 832 kilometers. For Chinese consumers who do not have home charging conditions, Nio provides a three-minute battery replacement service. XPeng claims that their voice interaction system is the first in the industry. Fisker and Canoo put more emphasis on the right to use cars rather than ownership, and launched product subscription services based on this philosophy.</p><p>In the end, all the above, which ones people really need, and which ones are just sales tricks, only consumers can give the final answer. However, it obviously takes time to get this answer, and it must wait until the new model is produced and sold. To produce thousands of cars every year is already a difficult enough challenge for these new players, but it can't be easier to lose a lot of money in the process. To truly mass produce on a large scale and obtain relative profits, for them, it is still a matter of another dimension. Even Tesla almost fell into \"production hell\".</p><p>No matter how gorgeous the advantages of software are, they need real support from the production line. From this perspective, as pointed out in the research report of brokerage Bernstein, producing an electric vehicle is not fundamentally different from producing a traditional internal combustion engine vehicle, and the cost is still excessive. A newly built car factory with an annual output of 100,000 electric vehicles will also require an investment of at least US $1 billion.</p><p>In order to bypass this difficulty, some challengers have chosen to transform existing factories. For example, Tesla acquired an abandoned car factory in Fremont, California, at a low price. Rivian moved into a former Mitsubishi factory in Illinois. Some other players adopt the model of cooperation with established car companies, which help solve complex supply chain problems. Chinese<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Cooperate with Geely, Huawei cooperates with BAIC, Changan, and GAC.</p><p>Both Fisker and Nio have adopted an asset-light architecture, outsourcing manufacturing to contract manufacturers of large automakers.</p><p>Arrival's approach is perhaps the most innovative. While Tesla and other players are chasing the grand, the British company has gone micro. Unlike passenger cars, commercial vehicles have no requirements in terms of fashion or customization, so they don't have to go to a lot of trouble on battery panels and arrange special production lines. Therefore, they only need to spend 40 million to 50 million dollars to acquire and modify smaller factories, so that the annual output can reach 10,000 units, and quickly scale up with low risk.</p><p>The last important hurdle in front of electric vehicle products is consumers. Most new electric vehicle players have chosen Tesla's online direct sales plus showroom model, bypassing the traditional dealer network. However, they still need a complete service network at least. This kind of network is also expensive, and it is no less difficult to scale up than the manufacturing process. Gartner's Pacheco pointed out that even Tesla is still developing in this respect. For example, in the United States, the three traditional giants in Detroit have nearly 10,000 dealers, and the latter also provides services, while Tesla has only about 135 service providers.</p><p>Many new companies don't even reach this level. Due to this limitation, some players have now suffered setbacks. Dyson, a British company famous for its vacuum cleaners, once invested 500 million pounds (about 640 million US dollars) to enter the electric vehicle market, but in 2019, the company found that this business was likely to never make money, and they had to Cao Cao End. In the same year, if Nio had not been rescued by the Hefei local government, it would have almost slipped into bankruptcy. China's numerous and numerous smaller electric vehicle companies will most likely go through a round of bloodbath when their ideas and money run out. Fisker itself is a product of a rebirth from the ashes. The company went bankrupt once in 2013.</p><p>As the complexity of automobile production becomes clearer and clearer, it is increasingly difficult for investors to buy hype accounts. Lordstown's share price has fallen as much as 65% since its February peak because it lowered its pickup truck production forecast and acknowledged the need for new funds. Canoo's share price is only half of what it was when it went public in December last year due to increasingly strong doubts about its development plans.</p><p>Aakash Arora of consulting firm BCG pointed out highly generally that these new companies must be able to create their own brands, and so far, only Tesla has really made their brands deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. It often takes years to truly establish a reliable brand image, but these new players are burning money surprisingly fast.</p><p>All in all, to enter this field, a truly qualified new player must have a resounding name, strong financial resources, and proven technological strength, and there is actually only one company that meets all these requirements, and that is Apple. The iPhone manufacturer has actually been working on electric vehicle research for quite some years. At present, the latest statement is that their products will be launched before 2025. By then, some potential competitors may have long been forgotten by the world.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/mtjAo9IgXqPVEUFUEuDbJA\">腾讯美股</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8541380317eba7ef07da7c529e879c07","relate_stocks":{"LI":"理想汽车","NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/mtjAo9IgXqPVEUFUEuDbJA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172689661","content_text":"汽车行业的历史上，其实从来就不缺失败者的身影。比如，在20世纪10年代，美国的汽车企业数量多达250家左右，而到了20世纪结束的时候，真正有分量的玩家就只剩下了3家，福特、通用汽车和克莱斯勒。最近几年，一场起源于美国的电动汽车大繁荣又逐渐发展起来，覆盖全球。\n爱驰汽车、理想汽车、蔚来汽车、威马汽车、小鹏汽车，中国的初创玩家已经在数以千计地生产自己的产品。在欧洲，克罗地亚的Rimac和西班牙的Hispano Suiza正在制造超级电动跑车，而英国的Arrival则在生产电动火车。美国企业如Canoo、Fisker、Lordstown、Lucid和Rivian也都希望能够迅速达成量产。中国台湾的富士康向来以苹果代工商而知名，他们很快也要为其他品牌车厂组装电动汽车了。至于苹果，他们呼之欲出的下一款王牌产品，正是所谓iCar。\n现在，大多数的新生电动汽车企业都处在亏损当中，其中一些甚至连营收都未能获得。不过，大家都已经看清了电池驱动的行业大势，希望在未来能够分得一杯羹。每一家公司都满怀雄心壮志，想要成为下一个特斯拉——这家业界先锋已经成功地使用电池和智能软件取代了内燃机。在经历了短短的发展历程之后，马斯克（Elon Musk）的公司已经成为了世界上市值首屈一指的汽车企业，其身家相当于后面三家全球最大车厂的总和还多。\n咨询公司e&Co的魏玛（EngelbertWimmer）坦言，特斯拉接近6000亿美元的市值已经成为了“指引道路的火炬”。现在，投资者都在寻找下一个潜在的目标。2018年，蔚来登陆纽约市场，而去年，小鹏和理想也相继亮相。这三家初创公司的身家，现在都与许多知名老牌车厂相当，甚至犹有过之。一些美国电动汽车初创企业则利用特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）的渠道曲线上市，也获得了动辄以十亿百亿计的身家。\n投资银行LincolnInternational的赫兹（Patrick von Herz）将现在的局面定性为“全球性狂热”。小鹏汽车的创始人何小鹏估计，这个市场将会膨胀到大约有300个玩家，而等到尘埃落定之后，将只剩下大约10家。那么，这为数众多的挑战者该如何避免最终被遗忘的命运呢？\n想要生存下去，最基本的蓝图包含三大要素。首先，他们必须找到适合作为自己扩张出发点的定位。然后，他们需要真正实现汽车的量产。最后，他们必须建立自己的销售和分销网络。大多数玩家往往在第一步，或者是第二步就宣告失败了。具有讽刺意味的是，那些目前真正最有可能复制特斯拉成功的玩家，或许正是那些看上去一点都不像特斯拉的玩家。\n首先要找到自己合适的战场，而在这方面，地理位置无疑非常重要，比如投行杰富瑞的霍乔斯（PhilippHouchois）就认为，下一个特斯拉将来自中国。中国消费者对新技术极有兴趣，而政府也持续支持汽车电动化的发展，这就给了中国挑战者一个很有利的起点。\n中国玩家当中目前体量最大的是蔚来，2020年生产汽车4.4万部，公司市值大约690亿美元。小鹏和理想的市值分别只有280亿和220亿美元，看上去也颇有吸引力。这些公司都能够轻松获得融资支持，使得他们的本土和海外扩张计划都能够顺利铺开。小鹏已经开始在欧洲消费者最热心的电动汽车市场挪威销售自己的产品，而蔚来很快也将进入这一市场。\n地理因素固然重要，但是找到自己合适的细分市场甚至更加重要。特斯拉并不是世界上第一家生产电动汽车的企业，但是他们却是第一家生产大型和高价电动车型的企业，也只有如此，高昂的电池成本才能被吸纳到销售价格当中去。许多初创企业也都瞄准了高价SUV和四门轿车市场，那里的利润率是最高的。\n不过，来自那些老牌玩家的竞争压力也日益凸显出来，比如大众旗下的奥迪和保时捷，还有梅赛德斯等。4月间，志在成为世界级企业的中国吉利汽车也发布了高价电动车型极氪（Zeekr）。伴随通用汽车和福特汽车现在也开始投身电动化大潮，这个市场注定将变得越来越拥挤。\n在这种情况下，其他尚未被这些玩家深度渗透的车型市场，也许会是后来者一个不错的切入点。比如，在疫情期间电子商务大发展的推动下，轻型商用车的需求日益旺盛。咨询公司Interact Analysis的黑费尔德（Alastair Hayfield）指出，送货车辆目前“尚未特斯拉化”。这些车辆的制造商现在还只是机械地在既有车型基础上将内燃机改为电动供能，而这直接影响了性能，让客户深感不快。这就为Arrival和Rivian等公司留下了机会。\n另外一个值得关注的潜在利基市场是超级跑车。那些大富豪们完全乐意花200万美元，给自己的车库再增添一款新品。克罗地亚的Rimac和意大利的Pininfarina都将这车型当作了一个试验场，他们可以将在这里测试成熟的技术卖给其他车厂。中国的丝尔科（Silk EV）正在考虑将红旗S9作为进军大众市场的桥头堡。\n不过，单单找到了合适的市场切入点还是不够的。小鹏总裁顾宏地承认，市场上的新玩家必须拿出一点真正与众不同的东西来。首席执行官劳林森（Peter Rawlinson）坦言，多年以来，这个行业都充斥着技术层面只能算是平庸的玩家，大家“并没有意识到，这其实是一场技术竞赛”。伴随汽车变得越来越像是个人电子设备，要获得行业领先地位，一家企业必须首先是科技公司，然后才是汽车厂商。富士康董事长刘扬伟也表示，在未来，驾乘体验将是“由软件驱动，由软件定义”的。\n咨询公司Gartner的帕切科（PedroPacheco）强调，对于投资者而言，企业令人眼前一亮的知识产权将是一张“漂亮的名片”。不过，像许多中国的特斯拉效仿者那样，只是将一块巨大的触屏放在电动汽车里，还是远远不够的。特斯拉已经建立了明确的准入门槛——软件无线升级，专有充电网络，线上直接销售等。\n因此，新来者必须想办法在行业身上留下属于自己的技术印记。Lucid的工程师们已经将他们电池的续航能力一路推到了832公里。针对没有家庭充电条件的中国消费者，蔚来提供了三分钟电池更换服务。小鹏宣称，他们的语音互动系统是全行业第一的。Fisker和Canoo则更加强调汽车的使用权而非所有权，基于这一理念推出了产品订阅服务。\n到底上面所有这一切，哪些是人们真正需要的，而哪些只是销售技俩，只有消费者才能给出最终的答案。不过，得到这一答案显然需要时间，必须等到新车型生产和销售之后。要每年生产几千部汽车，对于这些新玩家就已经是足够难的挑战了，而在这过程当中大量亏损，却是再容易不过的。要真正大规模量产，并获得相对的利润，对他们而言，目前还完全是另外一个次元的事情。就连特斯拉，当初也曾经差点坠入“生产地狱”。\n不管软件的优势多么华丽，都需要生产线的实实在在的支持。从这个角度来说，正如券商伯恩斯坦的研究报告所指出的，生产一部电动汽车与生产一部传统的内燃机汽车并没有什么本质的不同，而且成本还犹有过之。一家全新建设的，能够年产10万部电动汽车的车厂，至少也需要10亿美元的投入。\n为了绕过这个难关，一些挑战者选择了改造既有的工厂，比如特斯拉就低价收购了加州弗里蒙特一家废弃的车厂。Rivian迁入了伊利诺伊州一家曾经的三菱工厂。其他一些玩家采用与老牌车企合作的模式，由后者帮助解决复杂的供应链问题。中国的百度与吉利合作，华为与北汽、长安、广汽合作。\nFisker和蔚来都采用了轻资产架构，将制造外包给大车厂的合约制造商。\nArrival的方法或许算得上是最有创新精神的。在特斯拉和其他玩家追求宏大的时候，这家英国公司却走向了微观。商用车不同于乘用车，在时尚或者定制化方面没有什么要求，这样他们就不必在电池板上大费周章，去安排专门的生产线。于是，他们只需要花4000万到5000万美元就可以收购和改装较小的工厂，让年产量达到1万部，以较低的风险迅速上规模。\n电动汽车产品面前最后的一个重要关口就是消费者。新的电动汽车玩家大多数都选择了特斯拉的线上直销加展示厅模式，绕开了传统的经销商网络。可是，他们至少依然需要完备的服务网络。这种网络同样成本不菲，而且要上规模，难度一点也不小于制造环节。Gartner的帕切科指出，即便特斯拉，在这个方面目前也依然是在发展当中。比如在美国，底特律三大传统巨头拥有近1万家经销商，后者同时也提供服务，而特斯拉的服务商只有大约135家。\n许多新公司甚至连这个水平也达不到。由于这方面的限制，一些玩家现在已经遭到了挫折。以真空吸尘器闻名的英国公司戴森一度投资5亿英镑（约合6.4亿美元），想要进军电动汽车市场，但是在2019年，该公司发现，这业务很可能永远也无法赚钱，他们不得不曹操收场。同一年，蔚来若不是得到了合肥地方政府的救援，也差点滑向破产。中国那为数众多、林林总总的较小的电动汽车公司，当他们的点子和金钱耗尽后，大概率也要经历一轮血洗。Fisker本身就是浴火重生的产物，该公司2013年就有过一次破产的经历。\n伴随汽车生产的复杂性变得越来越清晰，投资者也越来越不容易买炒作的账令人。因为调降了皮卡生产预期，并承认需要新的资金以来，Lordstown的股价自从2月峰值已经下跌了65%之多。Canoo则由于其发展计划受到越来越强烈的质疑，股价只剩下了去年12月上市时的一半。\n咨询公司BCG的阿罗拉（AakashArora）高度概括地指出，这些新公司必须能够创建自己的品牌，而到目前为止，真正让自己的品牌深入人心的，依然只有特斯拉一家。要真正建立一个可靠的品牌形象，往往需要多年的时间，但是这些新玩家的烧钱速度却快得惊人。\n总而言之，要进入这个领域，一个真正合格的新玩家必须具备响亮的名头，强大的财力，以及业已被证明的科技实力，而符合全部这些要求的公司其实只有一个，那就是苹果。iPhone制造商致力于电动汽车研究其实也颇有些年头了。目前最新的说法是，他们的产品将在2025年前后面市。到那时，一些潜在的竞争对手也许早已被世界遗忘了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LI":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1002,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176835419,"gmtCreate":1626875666731,"gmtModify":1703479738588,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"尤大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/176835419","repostId":"1131487400","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131487400","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626875025,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131487400?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-21 21:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"[Change] The lithium battery sector in the US stock market strengthened, Livent rose more than 7%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131487400","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月21日，美股锂电池板块走强，Livent涨超7%，智利矿业化工、美国雅宝公司、Lithium Americas均涨超3%。美银称全球电动汽车电池最早可能在2025年断供。","content":"<p>On July 21, the lithium battery sector in the U.S. stock market strengthened, with Livent rising more than 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQM\">Chile Mining and Chemical Industry</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALB\">American Albemarle Corporation</a>Lithium Americas Both rose more than 3%. Bank of America says global electric vehicle battery supply may be cut off as early as 2025.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6d5fff270b9eb92b913298b1d8f590c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>[Change] The lithium battery sector in the US stock market strengthened, Livent rose more than 7%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n[Change] The lithium battery sector in the US stock market strengthened, Livent rose more than 7%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-21 21:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On July 21, the lithium battery sector in the U.S. stock market strengthened, with Livent rising more than 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQM\">Chile Mining and Chemical Industry</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALB\">American Albemarle Corporation</a>Lithium Americas Both rose more than 3%. Bank of America says global electric vehicle battery supply may be cut off as early as 2025.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6d5fff270b9eb92b913298b1d8f590c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3ac286c2233d10a592ba6c388667fb","relate_stocks":{"SQM":"智利矿业化工","LTHM":"Livent Corp.","ALB":"美国雅保"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131487400","content_text":"7月21日，美股锂电池板块走强，Livent涨超7%，智利矿业化工、美国雅宝公司、Lithium Americas均涨超3%。美银称全球电动汽车电池最早可能在2025年断供。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ALB":0.9,"SQM":0.9,"LTHM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185755228,"gmtCreate":1623675334064,"gmtModify":1704208347031,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"尤大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Www","listText":"Www","text":"Www","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/185755228","repostId":"1123321973","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123321973","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1623649058,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123321973?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-14 13:37","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Is the Fed going to turn against it? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Waiting Seriously","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123321973","media":"Wind万得","summary":"本周迎来超级央行周，美联储等多家央行将公布利率决议。\n美国5月通胀已经高达5%，创出十三年新高，美联储本周议息会议会不会宣布缩减QE？这已成为市场焦点。\n著名经济学家任泽平近日表示，如果美联储货币政策","content":"<p>This week ushered in Super Central Bank Week, and many central banks such as the Federal Reserve will announce interest rate decisions.</p><p>U.S. inflation has reached 5% in May, hitting a 13-year high. Will the Federal Reserve announce a reduction in QE at its interest rate meeting this week? This has become the focus of the market.</p><p>Ren Zeping, a famous economist, said recently,<b>If the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.</b></p><p><b>//The super central bank is coming//</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, etc. will announce interest rate decisions.</p><p><b>Among them, the most concerned one is the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p><b>At 2 o'clock on June 17th, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision; In half an hour, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference.</b></p><p>See the chart below for the specific schedule:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5e9242d2cb24ab2f8c085ee97398fa\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c2ba121bcf020e5143b1c267e4b3ab\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cc1db7d53aa8152a842b90048161e1\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"1037\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd247431fbeed69ea074da3ebbc4788\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wind combed and found that judging from current market expectations, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Indonesia, the Swiss National Bank, the Norwegian Bank, the Turkish Central Bank and the Egyptian Central Bank will most likely choose to maintain the existing benchmark interest rate level unchanged.</p><p>The Ukrainian central bank may choose rate hike for 50 basis points, and the Brazilian central bank may choose rate hike for 75 basis points. The Norges central bank may hint at a rate hike in September this year.</p><p><b>//Inflation soars, the Fed will change its face?  //</b></p><p>Once the Federal Reserve announces a reduction in monthly bond purchases (QE), it will be considered a key signal to tighten monetary policy globally.</p><p>Wind queried various sources and found that the current mainstream view is that the Federal Reserve is expected to release this signal at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole before the end of August this year at the earliest, while the more common view is to announce it at the meeting in September this year. But no, people don't seem to believe the Fed's argument that \"inflation is only temporary.\"</p><p>\"Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors,\" the Fed wrote in its April policy statement. Therefore, for the interest rate decision in June, whether the Federal Reserve will delete this statement is expected to be the \"epicenter\" of market-wide fluctuations.</p><p>The market is now waiting for a clear signal from the Federal Reserve, and the volatility of the US dollar has fallen to its lowest level in more than a year.</p><p><b>//US CPI hits a new high in nearly 13 years//</b></p><p>If the Fed changes its dovish stance, inflation will be the deciding factor.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 10th local time showed that,<b>CPI rose 5% year-on-year in May, a new high since August 2008. It was expected to rise by 4.7%, and the previous value rose by 4.2%, the largest year-on-year increase in the past 13 years</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c0507e13d2d924ecaefcd462dced92\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Picture from Wind Financial Terminal EDB Module)</p><p>The annual inflation gauge got a boost compared to last year's data during the pandemic, when prices fell sharply as demand for many goods and services plummeted. Markets are now expecting this so-called base effect to push up inflation numbers for May and June significantly into the fall.</p><p>According to a number of recent data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, as of April, house prices across the United States are soaring.</p><p>The S&P Schiller House Price Index rose 13.2% in March compared with the same period in 2020, the largest increase since December 2005. The housing price index of 90% cities in the United States, including New York and San Francisco, hit new highs.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's \"Beige Book\" released in early June showed that inflationary pressures in the United States increased further. According to the report, from the beginning of April to the end of May, economic activities in various jurisdictions in the United States expanded moderately at a faster rate. Jurisdictions generally expect that costs and selling prices may continue to rise in the coming months.</p><p><b>//Inflation data is released, the market is not panicking//</b></p><p>However, it is worth noting that the U.S. inflation data on June 11 exceeded expectations, but did not trigger market panic.</p><p>On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up, with gains all within 1%; European stocks were mixed. COMEX gold futures rose 0.31% to $1,901.3 an ounce; International crude oil futures closed generally higher, with the July U.S. oil contract rising 0.19% to $70.09 per barrel. London base metals were mixed, with LME copper futures falling 0.85%.</p><p><b>One of the reasons why market volatility has not risen is the dovish attitude of the European Central Bank overnight. The market may think that the same phenomenon will happen to the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>The European Central Bank (ECB) has chosen not to suggest when it may begin scaling back its pandemic-era stimulus package and expects inflation to remain below target for the foreseeable future. At the same time, the European Central Bank decided to continue to implement the stimulus plan, and its ultra-low interest rate remained unchanged.</p><p><b>//Ren Zeping: Be wary of the Fed's rate hike shrinking balance sheet risks//</b></p><p>Although there was no panic in the market after the inflation data was released last week, U.S. inflation continued to rise, posing a real threat to emerging markets.</p><p>Tatiana Lysenko, chief emerging markets economist at S&P Global Ratings, said that rising inflation and yields in the United States will push up borrowing costs in developing countries. In addition,<b>The broader risk is that the U.S. economy will be ahead of emerging economies, which will lead to outflows from emerging market stocks and bonds, eventually triggering currency devaluation.</b></p><p>According to S&P data, refinancing costs in 15 of the 18 largest advanced economies are more than 1 percentage point lower than the average borrowing cost. Most of these economies pay less than 1% in interest.</p><p>Ren Zeping, chief economist of Soochow Securities, called for vigilance against the risks caused by the Federal Reserve's rate hike shrinking balance sheet in a research report released on June 11.</p><p>He said that according to market expectations, the vaccination rate in the United States may reach 70% around October, and the vaccination will be basically completed by the end of the year. The future shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve and the risk of capital outflows from new markets deserve vigilance.</p><p>He stressed that global asset price valuations are now very high, and China has normalized its monetary policy.<b>If one day the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.</b>In February and March this year, the US Dollar Index briefly strengthened, funds flowed out of new markets, and the Turkish market collapsed directly.</p><p>Regarding the economic, policy and market outlook for the third quarter, he reminded investors to remember three points:</p><p><b>First, the first quarter is the economic high point, and there will be a marginal slowdown in the second and third quarters.</b></p><p><b>Second, the most violent rise in commodity prices may be over, and the high point is approaching.</b></p><p><b>Third, the market's expectations and anxiety about monetary policy tightening will ease.</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the Fed going to turn against it? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Waiting Seriously</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the Fed going to turn against it? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Waiting Seriously\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-14 13:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>This week ushered in Super Central Bank Week, and many central banks such as the Federal Reserve will announce interest rate decisions.</p><p>U.S. inflation has reached 5% in May, hitting a 13-year high. Will the Federal Reserve announce a reduction in QE at its interest rate meeting this week? This has become the focus of the market.</p><p>Ren Zeping, a famous economist, said recently,<b>If the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.</b></p><p><b>//The super central bank is coming//</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, etc. will announce interest rate decisions.</p><p><b>Among them, the most concerned one is the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p><b>At 2 o'clock on June 17th, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision; In half an hour, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference.</b></p><p>See the chart below for the specific schedule:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5e9242d2cb24ab2f8c085ee97398fa\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c2ba121bcf020e5143b1c267e4b3ab\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cc1db7d53aa8152a842b90048161e1\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"1037\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd247431fbeed69ea074da3ebbc4788\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wind combed and found that judging from current market expectations, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Indonesia, the Swiss National Bank, the Norwegian Bank, the Turkish Central Bank and the Egyptian Central Bank will most likely choose to maintain the existing benchmark interest rate level unchanged.</p><p>The Ukrainian central bank may choose rate hike for 50 basis points, and the Brazilian central bank may choose rate hike for 75 basis points. The Norges central bank may hint at a rate hike in September this year.</p><p><b>//Inflation soars, the Fed will change its face?  //</b></p><p>Once the Federal Reserve announces a reduction in monthly bond purchases (QE), it will be considered a key signal to tighten monetary policy globally.</p><p>Wind queried various sources and found that the current mainstream view is that the Federal Reserve is expected to release this signal at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole before the end of August this year at the earliest, while the more common view is to announce it at the meeting in September this year. But no, people don't seem to believe the Fed's argument that \"inflation is only temporary.\"</p><p>\"Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors,\" the Fed wrote in its April policy statement. Therefore, for the interest rate decision in June, whether the Federal Reserve will delete this statement is expected to be the \"epicenter\" of market-wide fluctuations.</p><p>The market is now waiting for a clear signal from the Federal Reserve, and the volatility of the US dollar has fallen to its lowest level in more than a year.</p><p><b>//US CPI hits a new high in nearly 13 years//</b></p><p>If the Fed changes its dovish stance, inflation will be the deciding factor.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 10th local time showed that,<b>CPI rose 5% year-on-year in May, a new high since August 2008. It was expected to rise by 4.7%, and the previous value rose by 4.2%, the largest year-on-year increase in the past 13 years</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c0507e13d2d924ecaefcd462dced92\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Picture from Wind Financial Terminal EDB Module)</p><p>The annual inflation gauge got a boost compared to last year's data during the pandemic, when prices fell sharply as demand for many goods and services plummeted. Markets are now expecting this so-called base effect to push up inflation numbers for May and June significantly into the fall.</p><p>According to a number of recent data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, as of April, house prices across the United States are soaring.</p><p>The S&P Schiller House Price Index rose 13.2% in March compared with the same period in 2020, the largest increase since December 2005. The housing price index of 90% cities in the United States, including New York and San Francisco, hit new highs.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's \"Beige Book\" released in early June showed that inflationary pressures in the United States increased further. According to the report, from the beginning of April to the end of May, economic activities in various jurisdictions in the United States expanded moderately at a faster rate. Jurisdictions generally expect that costs and selling prices may continue to rise in the coming months.</p><p><b>//Inflation data is released, the market is not panicking//</b></p><p>However, it is worth noting that the U.S. inflation data on June 11 exceeded expectations, but did not trigger market panic.</p><p>On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up, with gains all within 1%; European stocks were mixed. COMEX gold futures rose 0.31% to $1,901.3 an ounce; International crude oil futures closed generally higher, with the July U.S. oil contract rising 0.19% to $70.09 per barrel. London base metals were mixed, with LME copper futures falling 0.85%.</p><p><b>One of the reasons why market volatility has not risen is the dovish attitude of the European Central Bank overnight. The market may think that the same phenomenon will happen to the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>The European Central Bank (ECB) has chosen not to suggest when it may begin scaling back its pandemic-era stimulus package and expects inflation to remain below target for the foreseeable future. At the same time, the European Central Bank decided to continue to implement the stimulus plan, and its ultra-low interest rate remained unchanged.</p><p><b>//Ren Zeping: Be wary of the Fed's rate hike shrinking balance sheet risks//</b></p><p>Although there was no panic in the market after the inflation data was released last week, U.S. inflation continued to rise, posing a real threat to emerging markets.</p><p>Tatiana Lysenko, chief emerging markets economist at S&P Global Ratings, said that rising inflation and yields in the United States will push up borrowing costs in developing countries. In addition,<b>The broader risk is that the U.S. economy will be ahead of emerging economies, which will lead to outflows from emerging market stocks and bonds, eventually triggering currency devaluation.</b></p><p>According to S&P data, refinancing costs in 15 of the 18 largest advanced economies are more than 1 percentage point lower than the average borrowing cost. Most of these economies pay less than 1% in interest.</p><p>Ren Zeping, chief economist of Soochow Securities, called for vigilance against the risks caused by the Federal Reserve's rate hike shrinking balance sheet in a research report released on June 11.</p><p>He said that according to market expectations, the vaccination rate in the United States may reach 70% around October, and the vaccination will be basically completed by the end of the year. The future shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve and the risk of capital outflows from new markets deserve vigilance.</p><p>He stressed that global asset price valuations are now very high, and China has normalized its monetary policy.<b>If one day the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.</b>In February and March this year, the US Dollar Index briefly strengthened, funds flowed out of new markets, and the Turkish market collapsed directly.</p><p>Regarding the economic, policy and market outlook for the third quarter, he reminded investors to remember three points:</p><p><b>First, the first quarter is the economic high point, and there will be a marginal slowdown in the second and third quarters.</b></p><p><b>Second, the most violent rise in commodity prices may be over, and the high point is approaching.</b></p><p><b>Third, the market's expectations and anxiety about monetary policy tightening will ease.</b></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c642e2602b0226eff0cc78e1452765cc","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123321973","content_text":"本周迎来超级央行周，美联储等多家央行将公布利率决议。\n美国5月通胀已经高达5%，创出十三年新高，美联储本周议息会议会不会宣布缩减QE？这已成为市场焦点。\n著名经济学家任泽平近日表示，如果美联储货币政策正常化，或者说开始缩表、紧缩货币政策，会对全球资本市场产生压力。\n// 超级央行周到来  //\n本周，美联储、日本央行、瑞士央行等将公布利率决议。\n其中，最受关注的还是美联储。\n北京时间6月17日2点，美联储将公布利率决议；半小时后，美联储主席鲍威尔将举行新闻发布会。\n具体日程参见下方图表：\n\nWind梳理发现，从目前市场预期来看，美联储、日本央行、印尼央行、瑞士央行、挪威央行、土耳其央行和埃及央行等大概率会选择维持现有基准利率水平不变。\n而乌克兰央行可能会选择加息50个基点，巴西央行则可能会加息75个基点。挪威央行可能会暗示在今年9月的时候宣布加息。\n//  通胀飙升，美联储要变脸？  //\n美联储一旦宣布减少每月债券购买规模（QE），将被认为是全球收紧货币政策的关键信号。\nWind查询多方资料发现，目前主流看法是，美联储最快有望在今年8月末之前的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上释放该信号，而更为普遍看法是在今年9月份的会议上宣布。但不人们似乎不太相信美联储认为“通胀只是暂时的”说法。\n美联储在4月份的政策声明中写道：“Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors.”（通胀已经走高，主要反映了暂时性因素）。因此，对于6月的利率决议来说，美联储是否会删除这一表述，预计将会是引发全市场波动的“震中”。\n目前市场正在等待美联储的明确信号，美元波动率已跌至一年多来的最低水平。\n//  美国CPI创近13年新高  //\n如果美联储改变鸽派立场，通胀将是决定性因素。\n美国劳工部当地时间10日公布的数据显示，5月CPI同比升5%，创2008年8月来新高，预期升4.7%，前值升4.2%，创下近13年来最大同比增幅。\n\n（图片来自Wind金融终端EDB模块）\n与去年疫情期间的数据相比，年度通胀指标得到了提振，当时由于对许多商品和服务的需求暴跌，价格大幅下跌。市场目前预计这种所谓的基数效应将大幅推高5月和6月的通胀数据，直至秋季。\n据美国商务部近期公布的多项数据显示，截止4月，全美范围内的房价正在大幅飙升。\n标普席勒房价指数3月较2020年同期上涨13.2%，为2005年12月以来最大涨幅，包括纽约、旧金山在内的美国90%的城市房价指数均创下新高。\n6月月初公布的美联储“褐皮书”显示美国通胀压力进一步增加。报告显示，4月初至5月底，美国各辖区经济活动以更快速度温和扩张。各辖区普遍预计，未来几个月成本和销售价格可能继续上扬。\n//  通胀数据公布，市场并未恐慌  //\n不过值得注意的是，6月11日美国通胀数据超预期，但是并没有引发市场恐慌。\n当天，美国三大股指集体收涨，涨幅均在1%之内；欧股涨跌不一。COMEX期金涨0.31%，报1901.3美元/盎司；国际原油期货收盘普涨，美油7月合约涨0.19%，报70.09美元/桶。伦敦基本金属涨跌不一，LME期铜跌0.85%。\n市场波动率未上升的其中一个原因是隔夜欧央行鸽派的态度，市场或认为同样现象也会发生在美联储身上。\n欧洲央行(ECB)选择不暗示何时可能开始缩减其疫情时期的刺激计划，并预计在可预见的未来，通胀仍将低于目标水平。同时欧洲央行决定继续实施刺激计划，其超低利率也保持不变。\n//  任泽平：警惕美联储加息缩表风险  //\n尽管上周通胀数据公布后，市场并未出现恐慌，但是美国通胀持续走高，对新兴市场却构成实质威胁。\n标普全球评级新兴市场首席经济学家塔蒂亚娜·李森科表示，美国通胀和收益率上升会推高发展中国家的借贷成本，除此之外，更广泛的风险是，美国经济将领先于新兴经济体，这将导致资金流出新兴市场股票和债券，最终引发货币贬值。\n标普的数据显示，18个最大的发达经济体中有15个的再融资成本比平均借贷成本低1个百分点以上。其中大多数经济体支付的利息不到1%。\n东吴证券首席经济学家任泽平在6月11日发布的研报中呼吁，警惕美联储加息缩表引发的风险。\n他表示，如果按照市场预计，10月份前后，美国的疫苗接种可能能达到70%，到年底基本接种完毕，美联储未来的缩表和资本从新市场流出的风险值得警惕。\n他强调，现在全球资产价格估值都很高，中国已经货币政策正常化了，如果哪天美联储货币政策正常化，或者说开始缩表、紧缩货币政策，会对全球的资本市场产生压力。今年二三月份美元指数短暂走强，资金从新市场流出，土耳其市场直接就崩盘了。\n对于三季度的经济、政策和市场展望，他提醒投资者记住三点：\n第一点，一季度是经济高点，二三季度会边际放缓。\n第二点，大宗商品价格最猛烈的上涨的阶段可能结束了，高点临近了。\n第三点，市场对货币政策收紧的预期和焦虑会缓解。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":696,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168592268,"gmtCreate":1623978116854,"gmtModify":1703825208891,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"尤大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168592268","repostId":"2144072822","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182583180,"gmtCreate":1623588910140,"gmtModify":1704206667368,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"尤大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182583180","repostId":"1159028389","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":917,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":898004140,"gmtCreate":1628439126180,"gmtModify":1703506248009,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"尤大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/898004140","repostId":"1182934919","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802032683,"gmtCreate":1627698306642,"gmtModify":1703494881099,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"尤大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/802032683","repostId":"1154964430","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3713,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801344443,"gmtCreate":1627484955582,"gmtModify":1703490960865,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"尤大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801344443","repostId":"1169023385","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}