$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$I have exited all my YZJSB after 2 years, forgoing the dividend. Business fundamental has no changed. I exit at >1x NAV which I'm happy with.As for YZJFH, I will let the market decide the price as to me they are at no cost. Hope to see it to be traded at 0.8x NAV

$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$I am still deciding on whether to participate on the dividend or sell before Ex date (11 May 2021) for my investment position (not trading).I pull out some historical data to guide my decision. I feel that many of us may face the same dilemma so decide to share some findings.Base on historical data, the probability of YZJ to recover the dividend after Ex date is higher when both STI index and YZJ are experiencing bull run. However, we will not know this year is a bull or bear until the year end. What we can do is to anticipate it. Refer to the photo for the findings

$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$Is YZJ Cheap or Expensive?Based on 10 years Discounted CashflowFair value: $1.92With 10% margin: $1.73With 20% margin: $1.54Based on DCF current price of $1.49 still look reasonable.Based on the photoCurrent price relative to historical average still look reasonable.This is shipping industry supercycle so it would not be surprised if the price can be valued between Highest and Average PB/PE

$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$YZJ from a technical perspectiveYZY business fundamental remains intact and what has changed was just the price.Looking at Picture 1 yzj is still on a uptrend with long term moving averages sloping up+trend line.Looking at Picture 2 yzj is a textbook breakout and retrace to find support at previous resistance around $1.55. It may be due for a rebound based on1) Previous resistance act as a support 2) Stochastic oversold 3) Candle stick pattern of hammer (I don't really look at candle stick pattern actually)However, remember that TA is just a probability.

$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$Assumptions made forYZJFH1) YZJFH will trade based on Financial Companies from HKSE PE and PB2) YZJFH's Book value and EPS remainYZJSB1) YZJSB will trade within the range of its PE and PB ratios2) YZJSB's Book value and EPS remainEPS and NAV are based on the latest announcement made on 1 April 2022 and converted to SGD based on 1SGD = 4.69CNYHong Stock remains in a bear market so the valuations based on comparable companies traded on HKSE are conservative.YZJ will trade at the lowest PE or PB only during special events like major market sell-off or a specific event such as ‘government investigation’Base Case, YZJ should be traded at $1.68-$1.75Optimistic Case, YZJ should trade at $2.11-$2.15

$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$Yangzijiang shipbuilding 2021 Full Year Financial Results:Cash and cash equivalent per share: SGD 0.68Net Liquid asset per share: SGD 1.49Book Value per share: SGD 1.96Dividend per share: SGD 0.05From valuation perspective, YZJ is still cheap at $1.40 level. Out of $1.40, about 50% of its valuation is from its cash and cash equivalents. Meaning that you are paying $0.70 for all of its other net assets, future earning and growth potential

$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$Evergrande debt implication on YZJYZJ has limited disclosure on its debt investments. So there is no information showing YZJ actually held Evergrande DebtAnalysis from public available informationSource: YZJ 1H Financial ResultTotal Debt amortised at cost:10,907,170+5,719,110=16,626,280Debt investment as a percentages of total asset:16,626,280/47,334,191 = 35% This means that if all YZJ debt investment get wipe out, 35% of its assets will be goneConcern about Real Estate debt default.About 41% of its debt investments were from real estate sector.0.41 x 16,626,280 = 6,816,774.8Real estate debt investment as a percentage of total asset:6,816,774.8/47,334,191 =14.4%This means that if all YZJ real estate related

$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$There are bullish signs of build up around the resistance level. An effective breakout* would likely to occur soon.*Effective mean gap up or long bullish candle piercing through resistance level. 

$U.S. Steel(X)$ Don't concentrate your bet in a single sector. Tech down but traditional businesses are up.