zippiee
zippiee
Invest in optimism, reap the rewards
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avatarzippiee
2023-03-14
$Unity Software Inc.(U)$ Many game companies take a 'right tool for the job' approach. They will use Unity for one game and Unreal for another. if their work schedule happens to change that year depending on the type of game they are working on, then the revenue they get from the product they are making through Unity may drop below 100k, even though they are still using Unity. so software has cycles too.
avatarzippiee
2023-03-15

Still hv risk in Schwab

$Charles Schwab(SCHW)$ I don't think most people go far enough in describing the case for shorting. Schwab is "economically" (not legally, Tier 1 or GAAP) undercapitalized as of December 31. They have lost more money in securities than they have made in the last 3 years. Also, a simple calculation of $300 billion in deposits, how much less would they have made if interest rates on those deposits had risen by 1% or 2%? Despite the fact that they are market leaders, the risk is not zero.
Still hv risk in Schwab
avatarzippiee
2023-03-09
 $Alphabet(GOOG)$ A large language model such as ChatGPT is very expensive to run. Not only does it have to retrieve information, but it also has to synthesize responses to searches. In their current state, such searches will eat into the profits of those who use them.Google has incredible in-house talent in artificial intelligence and, more importantly, in optimizing the massive computational costs of supporting search. I don't think it's appropriate to be negative about the future of Google.
avatarzippiee
2023-03-14
$Silvergate Capital(SI)$ I suspect that Silvergate is trading well below its liquidation value, probably $7-10. The volume of short selling likely caused it to drop below that number, although there is a huge range in its liquidation value due to its high leverage at the end of the quarter. That said, most long-term bond securities have held their value since the end of the year, suggesting that their equity value should be stable as they enter liquidation. 
avatarzippiee
2024-10-30
$Phunware, Inc.(PHUN)$ Honestly, I’ve got my doubts about Phunware hitting $15 from an $8.50 entry. I just don’t see it happening, to be real. It feels like the hype is more about the sequence of events rather than the company itself. Everything seems so orchestrated, and in the end, it feels like the biggest winner is going to be $Trump Media & Technology(DJT)$ .
avatarzippiee
2024-10-29
$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ I'm personally leaning towards a gradual withdrawal, you know, like easing out of it instead of making one huge splashy exit. I'm thinking about cashing in some profits around the corner, and then slowly but surely, I'll start unwinding my position over the course of FY25. Though, that might still be a bit too hasty. I guess I'll just have to play it by ear and see how those earnings reports shape up.
avatarzippiee
2023-03-03
$Snowflake(SNOW)$ They reported revenues of just under $2 billion in their earnings report. They will need to achieve an annual growth rate of about 31% over the next six years. But even if they succeed, even if you give them a 10x sales multiple in 2030 (which is a stretch considering most established tech companies are 4-7x), the company will be worth twice as much as it is now, and I haven't even factored in dilution.In a recession or downturn, analyzing customer data for insights is a discretionary expense, just like advertising. This may also help explain the revenue slowdown.
avatarzippiee
2023-03-07
$Faraday Future(FFIE)$  Investors almost universally recognise that electric vehicles are the future, it's just a matter of timing and investment paths.FF is not a newcomer to the market and is facing the same issues that all electric car companies face.Meanwhile, amidst these challenges, FF is nearing completion of a state-of-the-art US manufacturing plant in a state that has publicly announced the end of gasoline car sales. with three models to meet the needs of a range of buyers, FF is poised to finish in the marketplace.
avatarzippiee
2023-03-15
$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ It sounds like metadata is dead and AI is the new future. I'm really curious to see how META explains this internally. I mean, you're just going to have to settle the bill on how many billion dollars of blunders. But I know you can move to AI, it's so easy, right? I kind of feel like there's a lot of volatility here.
avatarzippiee
2023-03-09

Ready for unstoppable pullback

$Shopify Inc(SHOP)$ The recession is not here yet, but all indicators point to it coming. The lower and middle classes in the US are reportedly close to running out of savings, which will first hit car loans, then credit cards and then a whole slew of others. There is no doubt that the war with Russia, headlines of layoffs, Fed rate hikes and inflation still moving higher will eventually affect the US economy. Cross-border e-commerce is very sensitive in the face of geopolitical issues. And the supply chain and quality control in Southeast Asia are not yet very mature.I do see a 20-25% correction in the broad indices in '23 which will affect most stocks with very few exceptions. shopify could easily reach the $25-30
Ready for unstoppable pullback

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