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1小龙女1
2022-09-08
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Apple is removing the iPhone 13 Pro from its official website and reducing its price to promote the iPhone 13.
1小龙女1
2022-09-04
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Is 3.5% a psychological barrier for the Federal Reserve?
1小龙女1
2022-08-22
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Hong Kong stocks open | Hang Seng Index open low 1.01%, Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.41%
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08:33","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Apple is removing the iPhone 13 Pro from its official website and reducing its price to promote the iPhone 13.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161899094","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月8日讯，苹果今日早些时候发布iPhone14系列手机。苹果下调了iPhone13售价，iPhone13降价促销。此外，iPhone13Pro下架。苹果官网显示，iPhone13的128GB、256","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>September 8th - Apple released the iPhone 14 series earlier today. Apple has lowered the price of the iPhone 13, and the iPhone 13 is on sale. In addition, the iPhone 13 Pro has been removed from shelves. According to Apple's official website, the 128GB, 256GB, and 512GB versions of the iPhone 13 are priced at 5399 yuan, 6299 yuan, and 8099 yuan, respectively. Compared to the retail prices of 5999 yuan, 6799 yuan, and 8399 yuan, they are 600 yuan, 500 yuan, and 300 yuan cheaper, respectively.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple is removing the iPhone 13 Pro from its official website and reducing its price to promote the iPhone 13.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple is removing the iPhone 13 Pro from its official website and reducing its price to promote the iPhone 13.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-08 08:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>September 8th - Apple released the iPhone 14 series earlier today. Apple has lowered the price of the iPhone 13, and the iPhone 13 is on sale. In addition, the iPhone 13 Pro has been removed from shelves. According to Apple's official website, the 128GB, 256GB, and 512GB versions of the iPhone 13 are priced at 5399 yuan, 6299 yuan, and 8099 yuan, respectively. Compared to the retail prices of 5999 yuan, 6799 yuan, and 8399 yuan, they are 600 yuan, 500 yuan, and 300 yuan cheaper, respectively.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ed560ee8ff75e1b046588039c31d454","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161899094","content_text":"9月8日讯，苹果今日早些时候发布iPhone14系列手机。苹果下调了iPhone13售价，iPhone13降价促销。此外，iPhone13Pro下架。苹果官网显示，iPhone13的128GB、256GB、512GB版本售价分别为5399元、6299元、8099元。相比发售价5999元、6799元、8399元，分别便宜了600元、500元、300元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2022,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":669818403,"gmtCreate":1662293328707,"gmtModify":1676537031955,"author":{"id":"3470796964701736","authorId":"3470796964701736","name":"1小龙女1","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3470796964701736","idStr":"3470796964701736"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"😀","listText":"😀","text":"😀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/669818403","repostId":"1191824345","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191824345","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662275629,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191824345?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-04 15:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is 3.5% a psychological barrier for the Federal Reserve?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191824345","media":"招商宏观静思录","summary":"美联储已经“加不起息”了：今年美国财政部支付的债务利息约为名义GDP的3.15%，高于2018年的3.05%；上半年美联储在公开市场操作中巨亏10504亿美元，2018年全年仅亏损926.1亿美元。3","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The Federal Reserve can no longer afford to raise interest rates: this year, the U.S. Treasury is paying approximately 3.15% of nominal GDP in interest on its debt, up from 3.05% in 2018. The Federal Reserve suffered a huge loss of $1,050.4 billion in open market operations in the first half of the year, compared to a loss of only $92.61 billion for the whole of 2018. The 3.5% yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds may be a psychological threshold for the Federal Reserve. Furthermore, the employment target will ultimately outpace the inflation target, the unemployment rate is on its way to a \"sustained\" rebound, and the rate hike is highly likely to end by the end of the year. US Treasury bonds and stocks are nearing the left side, the US dollar will need to peak until the European energy crisis warning is lifted, and the external environment will still have a certain negative impact on RMB-denominated assets.</b></p><p><b>An overburdened fiscal system and a Federal Reserve that \"cannot afford to raise interest rates\". 1) This year, the U.S. Treasury Department will pay approximately 3.15% of nominal GDP in Treasury Bond interest, up from 3.05% in 2018.</b>Is excessive fiscal pressure a reason for the Federal Reserve to end its rate hike? This is at least a reason to restrain fiscal easing. After economic growth slows down, if fiscal policy fails to exert its strength, it will inevitably exacerbate downward pressure on the economy and trigger a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. 2018 is a good example.<b>2) Under the impact of rate hike and shrinking balance sheet, the Federal Reserve has suffered continuous huge losses.</b>In the first half of the year, the Federal Reserve directly lost more than $1,050.4 billion, while the peak size of the Fed's balance sheet was only $8,995.49 billion. The Federal Reserve ended its rate hike in 2018 after suffering a full-year loss of $92.61 billion.</p><p><b>So, from the perspective of rate hike costs, where is the Federal Reserve's psychological hurdle? The 3.5% yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds seems to be a psychological barrier for the Federal Reserve.</b>The rollercoaster trend of the 10-year US Treasury yield since June is related to changes in the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet pace and statements. At the May FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve announced a $30 billion monthly reduction in U.S. Treasury bonds from June to August. However, in reality, the Federal Reserve only reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds by $5.48 billion in June. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve's stance in July was also dovish. Data suggests that the Federal Reserve only accelerated its shrinking balance sheet after yields on US Treasury bonds declined across various maturities. Since the 10-year US Treasury yield peaked at 3.495% in June, a 3.5% 10-year US Treasury yield is very likely to be considered a psychological barrier for the Federal Reserve. Of course, this does not mean that the 10-year US Treasury yield or benchmark interest rate will not exceed this level. Rather, it means that as long as economic data supports it or political demands allow it, the Federal Reserve is very likely to turn dovish around this level.</p><p><b>Do current conditions allow the Federal Reserve to shift to a dovish stance? Using employment targets to defeat inflation targets could be a watershed moment for the FOMC in September. 1）</b>US inflation is at its peak, and its central level will shift significantly downwards from the end of the year to the beginning of next year.<b>2）</b>The employment target will eventually defeat the inflation target, and once the unemployment rate continues to rise, employment will become the core contradiction. The rebound in the unemployment rate in August and the deterioration in high-frequency indicators such as initial and renewal applications indicate that the job market is beginning to show some negative changes. The probability of a rate hike ending at the end of the year has increased.<b>3）</b>When will the Federal Reserve turn dovish? We speculate that the September FOMC will be a watershed moment. Following the release of August employment data, expectations for rate hike to reach 75 basis points in September cooled slightly. However, in our commentary on the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting, we also emphasized that Powell's sudden hawkish stance may be related to Biden's \"approval rating defense\" before the midterm elections. With inflation unlikely to fall significantly, expressing a determination to suppress inflation can also win voter support. However, with the Federal Reserve's recent hawkish stance, US stocks have begun to decline. We expect that as the midterm elections approach, the Federal Reserve will also consider both asset prices and market risk appetite. Therefore, if the FOMC delivers a 75 basis point rate hike in September, the probability of a dovish turn will increase.</p><p><b>How should the market interpret this? Both US Treasury bonds and US stocks are approaching the left side. 1）</b>Bullish opportunities are gradually emerging on the left side of US Treasury bonds across all maturities.<b>2）</b>The final decline in US stocks is not yet complete, and there may still be a drop of about 10%, but the timing may be close to a turning point.<b>3）</b>The the US Dollar Index peak still needs to wait for the European energy crisis warning to be lifted, the RMB still faces some depreciation pressure, and the external environment will still have a negative impact on RMB-denominated assets.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>I.</b><b>An overburdened fiscal system and a Federal Reserve that cannot afford to raise interest rates.</b></p><p>In our commentary on the June Federal Reserve interest rate meeting, \"It's Time to Consider the Conditions for the FED to End rate hike,\" we pointed out that the FED can no longer \"afford to raise interest rates,\" but it still lacks a reason before the end of the rate hike. Compared to the situation observed in June, the pressure on the Federal Reserve and fiscal policy has intensified further amid continued rate hike and shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><b>1) This year, the U.S. Treasury Department may allocate nearly 3% of its nominal GDP to repay Treasury Bond interest, the highest amount since 2001.</b></p><p><b>How much debt interest does the U.S. Treasury pay each year?</b>This is related to two factors: the first is the government leverage ratio, and the second is the debt maturity structure, or the duration of the Treasury Bond. As shown in Figure 1, before the 2008 financial crisis, the proportion of U.S. debt interest to total debt (including state and local government) was significantly lower than the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, but after the financial crisis it was almost the same. This change is related to the fact that the US government began to increase its long-term debt after the financial crisis. However, this also provides us with an anchor in estimating US debt interest expenses, as the duration of the US Treasury Bond is roughly equal to the duration of 10-year US Treasury bonds.</p><p><b>So, how much debt interest will the U.S. Treasury pay this year?</b>As of September 2, the average year-to-date yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds was 2.57%, and the U.S. government leverage ratio in Q2 was 123%. If the above figures remain until the end of the year, the U.S. Treasury will have to pay approximately 3.15% of nominal GDP in Treasury Bond interest this year. This figure is the highest since 2001 and even higher than the 3.05% in 2018.</p><p><b>Is excessive fiscal pressure a reason for the Federal Reserve to end its rate hike?</b>We cannot say that high fiscal costs are the reason for the Federal Reserve to end its rate hike, but they are at least a reason to restrain fiscal easing. After economic growth slows down, if fiscal policy struggles to exert its strength, it will inevitably exacerbate downward pressure on the economy and trigger a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. 2018 is a good example.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6751d0d27e96cd48c1887236ed8cbc30\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) Under the impact of rate hike and shrinking balance sheet, the Federal Reserve suffered continuous huge losses.</b></p><p>In the first quarter of 2022, the Federal Reserve suffered a huge loss of $330.5 billion in open market operations, and the situation was even more severe in the second quarter, with the Fed losing another $719.9 billion. In other words, the Federal Reserve directly lost more than $1,050.4 billion in the first half of the year, while the peak size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet (mid-May) was only $8,995.49 billion. Why the huge losses? rate hike shrinking balance sheet triggered a surge in US Treasury and MBS yields. In contrast, the Federal Reserve ended its rate hike in 2018 after suffering a loss of $92.61 billion.</p><p><b>So, from the perspective of rate hike costs, where is the Federal Reserve's psychological hurdle?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb658898491d7f56123e8de769d16909\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3606db7981cf1a61cdb135034cc99bb7\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>two</b><b>The 3.5% yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds seems to be a psychological barrier for the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>In our report on August 20, \"Where is the balance of major asset classes tilting?\", we pointed out that the rollercoaster trend of the 10-year US Treasury yield since June is related to the pace of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet and changes in its statements. At the FOMC meeting in May, the Federal Reserve announced that it would reduce US Treasury bonds by $30 billion per month from June to August, and accelerate to $60 billion per month starting in September. However, in reality, the Federal Reserve only reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds by $5.48 billion in June. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve's overall dovish stance in July did not cause a gap in market expectations in terms of rate hike. The data suggests that the Federal Reserve only accelerated its shrinking balance sheet again after yields on US Treasury bonds of various maturities (especially the 10-year maturity) declined. In our commentary report, \"Powell's Hawkish Turn Again Is the Key,\" we also pointed out that Powell's hawkish stance at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting was a last resort before the midterm elections.</p><p>Since the 10-year US Treasury yield peaked at 3.495% in June, we have reason to suspect that a 3.5% 10-year US Treasury yield is very likely to be considered a psychological barrier for the Federal Reserve. Once this happens, the benchmark interest rate should not significantly or consistently exceed 3.5%. Of course, this does not mean that the 10-year US Treasury yield or benchmark interest rate will not exceed this level. Rather, it means that as long as economic data supports it or political demands allow it, the Federal Reserve is very likely to turn dovish around this level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68bf069dfaa4a24dff2065dff6b59fcb\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"627\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>III.</b><b>Do current conditions allow the Federal Reserve to shift to a dovish stance? The September FOMC may be a watershed moment.</b></p><p><b>First, US inflation is at its peak, and the central level will shift significantly downwards from the end of the year to the beginning of next year.</b>With a rising energy base, slowing housing price growth, and a slowdown in post-pandemic structural demand for used cars, the peak of US inflation has passed, and the central level is expected to shift significantly downward by the end of the year and the beginning of next year. Of course, many people believe that as long as the core PCE does not fall below 2% year-on-year, the Federal Reserve should continue its rate hike, after all, Powell also stated this at the Jackson Hole meeting. But in fact, Powell's statements are dynamic. Since taking office in 2018, the Federal Reserve has re-established a new policy tone every six months to a year. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve has two policy objectives: inflation and employment.</p><p><b>The employment target will eventually defeat the inflation target, and a \"sustained\" rebound in the unemployment rate is already underway.</b>Let's imagine that each family has an income statement, with income determined by factors such as employment and costs affected by factors such as inflation. During periods of stable employment and income, cost factors are key to profit margins. Once unemployment leads to a loss of cash flow, the priority between \"finding a job to increase income\" and \"consuming savings and cutting expenses\" should be to work hard to find a job, and employment becomes the core contradiction. Currently, the Federal Reserve is emphasizing inflationary pressures because there is currently no pressure on employment. However, the rebound in the unemployment rate in August and the deterioration in high-frequency indicators such as initial and renewal applications indicate that the job market is beginning to show some negative changes. If the unemployment rate rises for three consecutive months, it will enter a recovery trend, at which point the Federal Reserve will inevitably end its rate hike.</p><p><b>When will the Federal Reserve turn dovish? We speculate that the September FOMC will be a watershed moment.</b>Following the release of August employment data, expectations for rate hike to reach 75 basis points in September cooled slightly. However, in our commentary on the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting, we also emphasized that Powell's sudden hawkish stance may be related to Biden's \"approval rating defense\" before the midterm elections. With inflation unlikely to fall significantly, expressing a determination to suppress inflation can also win voter support. However, with the Federal Reserve's recent hawkish stance, US stocks have begun to decline. We expect that as the midterm elections approach, the Federal Reserve will also consider both asset prices and market risk appetite. Therefore, if the FOMC delivers a 75 basis point rate hike in September, the probability of a dovish turn will increase.</p><p><b>IV.</b><b>How should the market interpret this? Both US Treasury bonds and US stocks are approaching the left.</b></p><p><b>First, we maintain our previous view that the Federal Reserve will end its rate hike in Q4, and bullish opportunities are gradually emerging on the left side of US Treasury bonds of all maturities.</b>The Federal Reserve is expected to raise the benchmark interest rate to around 3.5% in November, followed by the official end of the rate hike in December. Furthermore, if the Federal Reserve gradually turns dovish after the September FOMC, the 10-year US Treasury yield is likely to peak again around 3.5% around mid-September before falling back. The yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds is also expected to peak and fall in October. Currently, in terms of time and space, US Treasury yields of all maturities are very close to their peaks, and bullish opportunities are beginning to emerge on the left.</p><p><b>Second, the final decline in US stocks is not yet complete, and there may still be a drop of about 10%, but the timing may be close to a turning point.</b>Assuming the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains around its current level of 3.2% and the S&P 500's risk premium (which was 0.2% as of September 2) rises to 1%, the S&P 500 still has a 19.0% decline. Assuming the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains around its current level of 3.2% and the S&P 500's risk premium rises to 0.5%, the S&P 500 still has an 8.1% decline. However, considering that the 10-year US Treasury yield may peak and fall back in mid-to-late September, coupled with the rapid decline in US stocks, the final decline in US stocks may be around 10%, and it may also be very close to the low point.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86454c6b7a990865a40c0af63b093b93\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Third, the the US Dollar Index peak still needs to wait for the European energy crisis warning to be lifted, and the RMB still faces some depreciation pressure.</b>In reports such as \"Where is the Balance of Major Asset Classes Tilting?\", we have pointed out that the recent strength of the US dollar is related to concerns about the European energy crisis. Against the backdrop of the G7 plan to cap Russian energy prices, Russia announced an indefinite suspension of gas supplies to Europe via Nord Stream 1. In our report, \"The Possibility and Impact of the European Energy Crisis,\" we also pointed out that an energy crisis in Europe is highly probable in Q4. If this happens, the weakness of the euro may further push up the US Dollar Index. This week, amid a combination of various risk factors, the US dollar tested 110. Of course, if Europe can survive this winter, the probability of another energy crisis in the future will decrease. In addition, we expect the Federal Reserve to end its rate hike at the end of the year, so we expect the dollar to peak at the end of this year or the beginning of next year. This means that the RMB exchange rate will still face some depreciation pressure in the coming months, and the external environment will remain a negative factor for RMB-denominated assets.</p><p><b>Risk Warning:</b></p><p>US and Chinese monetary policies exceeded expectations; The global pandemic outbreak exceeded The Chinese and American economies exceeded</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1655347333395","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is 3.5% a psychological barrier for the Federal Reserve?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs 3.5% a psychological barrier for the Federal Reserve?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">招商宏观静思录</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-04 15:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The Federal Reserve can no longer afford to raise interest rates: this year, the U.S. Treasury is paying approximately 3.15% of nominal GDP in interest on its debt, up from 3.05% in 2018. The Federal Reserve suffered a huge loss of $1,050.4 billion in open market operations in the first half of the year, compared to a loss of only $92.61 billion for the whole of 2018. The 3.5% yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds may be a psychological threshold for the Federal Reserve. Furthermore, the employment target will ultimately outpace the inflation target, the unemployment rate is on its way to a \"sustained\" rebound, and the rate hike is highly likely to end by the end of the year. US Treasury bonds and stocks are nearing the left side, the US dollar will need to peak until the European energy crisis warning is lifted, and the external environment will still have a certain negative impact on RMB-denominated assets.</b></p><p><b>An overburdened fiscal system and a Federal Reserve that \"cannot afford to raise interest rates\". 1) This year, the U.S. Treasury Department will pay approximately 3.15% of nominal GDP in Treasury Bond interest, up from 3.05% in 2018.</b>Is excessive fiscal pressure a reason for the Federal Reserve to end its rate hike? This is at least a reason to restrain fiscal easing. After economic growth slows down, if fiscal policy fails to exert its strength, it will inevitably exacerbate downward pressure on the economy and trigger a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. 2018 is a good example.<b>2) Under the impact of rate hike and shrinking balance sheet, the Federal Reserve has suffered continuous huge losses.</b>In the first half of the year, the Federal Reserve directly lost more than $1,050.4 billion, while the peak size of the Fed's balance sheet was only $8,995.49 billion. The Federal Reserve ended its rate hike in 2018 after suffering a full-year loss of $92.61 billion.</p><p><b>So, from the perspective of rate hike costs, where is the Federal Reserve's psychological hurdle? The 3.5% yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds seems to be a psychological barrier for the Federal Reserve.</b>The rollercoaster trend of the 10-year US Treasury yield since June is related to changes in the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet pace and statements. At the May FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve announced a $30 billion monthly reduction in U.S. Treasury bonds from June to August. However, in reality, the Federal Reserve only reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds by $5.48 billion in June. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve's stance in July was also dovish. Data suggests that the Federal Reserve only accelerated its shrinking balance sheet after yields on US Treasury bonds declined across various maturities. Since the 10-year US Treasury yield peaked at 3.495% in June, a 3.5% 10-year US Treasury yield is very likely to be considered a psychological barrier for the Federal Reserve. Of course, this does not mean that the 10-year US Treasury yield or benchmark interest rate will not exceed this level. Rather, it means that as long as economic data supports it or political demands allow it, the Federal Reserve is very likely to turn dovish around this level.</p><p><b>Do current conditions allow the Federal Reserve to shift to a dovish stance? Using employment targets to defeat inflation targets could be a watershed moment for the FOMC in September. 1）</b>US inflation is at its peak, and its central level will shift significantly downwards from the end of the year to the beginning of next year.<b>2）</b>The employment target will eventually defeat the inflation target, and once the unemployment rate continues to rise, employment will become the core contradiction. The rebound in the unemployment rate in August and the deterioration in high-frequency indicators such as initial and renewal applications indicate that the job market is beginning to show some negative changes. The probability of a rate hike ending at the end of the year has increased.<b>3）</b>When will the Federal Reserve turn dovish? We speculate that the September FOMC will be a watershed moment. Following the release of August employment data, expectations for rate hike to reach 75 basis points in September cooled slightly. However, in our commentary on the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting, we also emphasized that Powell's sudden hawkish stance may be related to Biden's \"approval rating defense\" before the midterm elections. With inflation unlikely to fall significantly, expressing a determination to suppress inflation can also win voter support. However, with the Federal Reserve's recent hawkish stance, US stocks have begun to decline. We expect that as the midterm elections approach, the Federal Reserve will also consider both asset prices and market risk appetite. Therefore, if the FOMC delivers a 75 basis point rate hike in September, the probability of a dovish turn will increase.</p><p><b>How should the market interpret this? Both US Treasury bonds and US stocks are approaching the left side. 1）</b>Bullish opportunities are gradually emerging on the left side of US Treasury bonds across all maturities.<b>2）</b>The final decline in US stocks is not yet complete, and there may still be a drop of about 10%, but the timing may be close to a turning point.<b>3）</b>The the US Dollar Index peak still needs to wait for the European energy crisis warning to be lifted, the RMB still faces some depreciation pressure, and the external environment will still have a negative impact on RMB-denominated assets.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>I.</b><b>An overburdened fiscal system and a Federal Reserve that cannot afford to raise interest rates.</b></p><p>In our commentary on the June Federal Reserve interest rate meeting, \"It's Time to Consider the Conditions for the FED to End rate hike,\" we pointed out that the FED can no longer \"afford to raise interest rates,\" but it still lacks a reason before the end of the rate hike. Compared to the situation observed in June, the pressure on the Federal Reserve and fiscal policy has intensified further amid continued rate hike and shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><b>1) This year, the U.S. Treasury Department may allocate nearly 3% of its nominal GDP to repay Treasury Bond interest, the highest amount since 2001.</b></p><p><b>How much debt interest does the U.S. Treasury pay each year?</b>This is related to two factors: the first is the government leverage ratio, and the second is the debt maturity structure, or the duration of the Treasury Bond. As shown in Figure 1, before the 2008 financial crisis, the proportion of U.S. debt interest to total debt (including state and local government) was significantly lower than the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, but after the financial crisis it was almost the same. This change is related to the fact that the US government began to increase its long-term debt after the financial crisis. However, this also provides us with an anchor in estimating US debt interest expenses, as the duration of the US Treasury Bond is roughly equal to the duration of 10-year US Treasury bonds.</p><p><b>So, how much debt interest will the U.S. Treasury pay this year?</b>As of September 2, the average year-to-date yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds was 2.57%, and the U.S. government leverage ratio in Q2 was 123%. If the above figures remain until the end of the year, the U.S. Treasury will have to pay approximately 3.15% of nominal GDP in Treasury Bond interest this year. This figure is the highest since 2001 and even higher than the 3.05% in 2018.</p><p><b>Is excessive fiscal pressure a reason for the Federal Reserve to end its rate hike?</b>We cannot say that high fiscal costs are the reason for the Federal Reserve to end its rate hike, but they are at least a reason to restrain fiscal easing. After economic growth slows down, if fiscal policy struggles to exert its strength, it will inevitably exacerbate downward pressure on the economy and trigger a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. 2018 is a good example.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6751d0d27e96cd48c1887236ed8cbc30\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) Under the impact of rate hike and shrinking balance sheet, the Federal Reserve suffered continuous huge losses.</b></p><p>In the first quarter of 2022, the Federal Reserve suffered a huge loss of $330.5 billion in open market operations, and the situation was even more severe in the second quarter, with the Fed losing another $719.9 billion. In other words, the Federal Reserve directly lost more than $1,050.4 billion in the first half of the year, while the peak size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet (mid-May) was only $8,995.49 billion. Why the huge losses? rate hike shrinking balance sheet triggered a surge in US Treasury and MBS yields. In contrast, the Federal Reserve ended its rate hike in 2018 after suffering a loss of $92.61 billion.</p><p><b>So, from the perspective of rate hike costs, where is the Federal Reserve's psychological hurdle?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb658898491d7f56123e8de769d16909\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3606db7981cf1a61cdb135034cc99bb7\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>two</b><b>The 3.5% yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds seems to be a psychological barrier for the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>In our report on August 20, \"Where is the balance of major asset classes tilting?\", we pointed out that the rollercoaster trend of the 10-year US Treasury yield since June is related to the pace of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet and changes in its statements. At the FOMC meeting in May, the Federal Reserve announced that it would reduce US Treasury bonds by $30 billion per month from June to August, and accelerate to $60 billion per month starting in September. However, in reality, the Federal Reserve only reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds by $5.48 billion in June. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve's overall dovish stance in July did not cause a gap in market expectations in terms of rate hike. The data suggests that the Federal Reserve only accelerated its shrinking balance sheet again after yields on US Treasury bonds of various maturities (especially the 10-year maturity) declined. In our commentary report, \"Powell's Hawkish Turn Again Is the Key,\" we also pointed out that Powell's hawkish stance at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting was a last resort before the midterm elections.</p><p>Since the 10-year US Treasury yield peaked at 3.495% in June, we have reason to suspect that a 3.5% 10-year US Treasury yield is very likely to be considered a psychological barrier for the Federal Reserve. Once this happens, the benchmark interest rate should not significantly or consistently exceed 3.5%. Of course, this does not mean that the 10-year US Treasury yield or benchmark interest rate will not exceed this level. Rather, it means that as long as economic data supports it or political demands allow it, the Federal Reserve is very likely to turn dovish around this level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68bf069dfaa4a24dff2065dff6b59fcb\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"627\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>III.</b><b>Do current conditions allow the Federal Reserve to shift to a dovish stance? The September FOMC may be a watershed moment.</b></p><p><b>First, US inflation is at its peak, and the central level will shift significantly downwards from the end of the year to the beginning of next year.</b>With a rising energy base, slowing housing price growth, and a slowdown in post-pandemic structural demand for used cars, the peak of US inflation has passed, and the central level is expected to shift significantly downward by the end of the year and the beginning of next year. Of course, many people believe that as long as the core PCE does not fall below 2% year-on-year, the Federal Reserve should continue its rate hike, after all, Powell also stated this at the Jackson Hole meeting. But in fact, Powell's statements are dynamic. Since taking office in 2018, the Federal Reserve has re-established a new policy tone every six months to a year. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve has two policy objectives: inflation and employment.</p><p><b>The employment target will eventually defeat the inflation target, and a \"sustained\" rebound in the unemployment rate is already underway.</b>Let's imagine that each family has an income statement, with income determined by factors such as employment and costs affected by factors such as inflation. During periods of stable employment and income, cost factors are key to profit margins. Once unemployment leads to a loss of cash flow, the priority between \"finding a job to increase income\" and \"consuming savings and cutting expenses\" should be to work hard to find a job, and employment becomes the core contradiction. Currently, the Federal Reserve is emphasizing inflationary pressures because there is currently no pressure on employment. However, the rebound in the unemployment rate in August and the deterioration in high-frequency indicators such as initial and renewal applications indicate that the job market is beginning to show some negative changes. If the unemployment rate rises for three consecutive months, it will enter a recovery trend, at which point the Federal Reserve will inevitably end its rate hike.</p><p><b>When will the Federal Reserve turn dovish? We speculate that the September FOMC will be a watershed moment.</b>Following the release of August employment data, expectations for rate hike to reach 75 basis points in September cooled slightly. However, in our commentary on the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting, we also emphasized that Powell's sudden hawkish stance may be related to Biden's \"approval rating defense\" before the midterm elections. With inflation unlikely to fall significantly, expressing a determination to suppress inflation can also win voter support. However, with the Federal Reserve's recent hawkish stance, US stocks have begun to decline. We expect that as the midterm elections approach, the Federal Reserve will also consider both asset prices and market risk appetite. Therefore, if the FOMC delivers a 75 basis point rate hike in September, the probability of a dovish turn will increase.</p><p><b>IV.</b><b>How should the market interpret this? Both US Treasury bonds and US stocks are approaching the left.</b></p><p><b>First, we maintain our previous view that the Federal Reserve will end its rate hike in Q4, and bullish opportunities are gradually emerging on the left side of US Treasury bonds of all maturities.</b>The Federal Reserve is expected to raise the benchmark interest rate to around 3.5% in November, followed by the official end of the rate hike in December. Furthermore, if the Federal Reserve gradually turns dovish after the September FOMC, the 10-year US Treasury yield is likely to peak again around 3.5% around mid-September before falling back. The yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds is also expected to peak and fall in October. Currently, in terms of time and space, US Treasury yields of all maturities are very close to their peaks, and bullish opportunities are beginning to emerge on the left.</p><p><b>Second, the final decline in US stocks is not yet complete, and there may still be a drop of about 10%, but the timing may be close to a turning point.</b>Assuming the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains around its current level of 3.2% and the S&P 500's risk premium (which was 0.2% as of September 2) rises to 1%, the S&P 500 still has a 19.0% decline. Assuming the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains around its current level of 3.2% and the S&P 500's risk premium rises to 0.5%, the S&P 500 still has an 8.1% decline. However, considering that the 10-year US Treasury yield may peak and fall back in mid-to-late September, coupled with the rapid decline in US stocks, the final decline in US stocks may be around 10%, and it may also be very close to the low point.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86454c6b7a990865a40c0af63b093b93\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Third, the the US Dollar Index peak still needs to wait for the European energy crisis warning to be lifted, and the RMB still faces some depreciation pressure.</b>In reports such as \"Where is the Balance of Major Asset Classes Tilting?\", we have pointed out that the recent strength of the US dollar is related to concerns about the European energy crisis. Against the backdrop of the G7 plan to cap Russian energy prices, Russia announced an indefinite suspension of gas supplies to Europe via Nord Stream 1. In our report, \"The Possibility and Impact of the European Energy Crisis,\" we also pointed out that an energy crisis in Europe is highly probable in Q4. If this happens, the weakness of the euro may further push up the US Dollar Index. This week, amid a combination of various risk factors, the US dollar tested 110. Of course, if Europe can survive this winter, the probability of another energy crisis in the future will decrease. In addition, we expect the Federal Reserve to end its rate hike at the end of the year, so we expect the dollar to peak at the end of this year or the beginning of next year. This means that the RMB exchange rate will still face some depreciation pressure in the coming months, and the external environment will remain a negative factor for RMB-denominated assets.</p><p><b>Risk Warning:</b></p><p>US and Chinese monetary policies exceeded expectations; The global pandemic outbreak exceeded The Chinese and American economies exceeded</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/73QzmP-YHcoX8-zys9OUVA\">招商宏观静思录</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/73QzmP-YHcoX8-zys9OUVA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191824345","content_text":"美联储已经“加不起息”了：今年美国财政部支付的债务利息约为名义GDP的3.15%，高于2018年的3.05%；上半年美联储在公开市场操作中巨亏10504亿美元，2018年全年仅亏损926.1亿美元。3.5%的10Y美债收益率或为美联储心理关口。此外，就业目标终究打败通胀目标，失业率“持续”回升已在路上，年底结束加息为大概率。美债、美股接近左侧，美元见顶需待欧洲能源危机警报解除，外部环境对人民币计价资产仍有一定负面影响。不堪重负的财政与“加不起息”的联储。1）今年美国财政部要支付的国债利息大约为名义GDP的3.15%，高于2018年的3.05%。财政压力过大就是美联储结束加息的理由吗？这起码是约束财政宽松的理由，而在经济增长放缓后，假若财政难以发力，势必会加剧经济下行压力，并进而引发美联储货币政策转向，2018年就是个很好的例子。2）加息、缩表冲击下，美联储连续巨亏。上半年美联储就直接亏掉了超过10504亿美元，而美联储资产负债表规模峰值也仅为89954.9亿美元。2018年美联储全年亏损926.1亿美元后就曾结束加息。那么，从加息成本的角度看，美联储的心理关口在哪儿？3.5%的10Y美债收益率看似是美联储的心理关口。6月以来10年期美债收益率的过山车走势与美联储缩表节奏及表态变化有关。5月FOMC上，美联储宣布6-8月缩减300亿美元美债/月。但实际上，6月美联储仅缩减了54.8亿美元的美债。并且，7月美联储表态也偏鸽。从数据上看，似乎是在各个期限美债收益率有所回落后，美联储才重新提速缩表。由于6月10年期美债收益率高点在3.495%，因此，3.5%的10年期美债收益率极有可能算是美联储的心理关口。当然，这并不代表10年期美债收益率或者基准利率不会超过这一水平，而是说只要看到经济数据支持或者政治诉求允许，美联储就极有可能在这一水平附近转鸽。现实条件允许美联储转鸽吗？用就业目标打败通胀目标，9月FOMC可能是个分水岭。1）美国通胀处于顶部，年底到明年初中枢将明显下移。2）就业目标终将打败通胀目标，一旦失业率持续回升，就业就将成为核心矛盾。8月失业率回升以及初请、续请等高频指标转差，已经说明就业市场开始有些负面变化。年底结束加息概率上升。3）美联储何时转鸽？我们猜测9月FOMC后将是分水岭。8月就业数据公布后，9月加息75BP预期略有降温，但我们在Jackson Hole全球央行会议点评中亦曾强调鲍威尔突然变鹰或与中期选举前的拜登“支持率保卫战”有关，在通胀难以大幅回落之际，表达打压通胀的决心也能赢得选民支持。但近期随着美联储转鹰，美股开始下挫。我们预计临近中期选举之际，美联储亦将兼顾资产价格与市场风险偏好，所以假若9月FOMC上落地了75BP加息靴子，随后转鸽概率就将变大。市场如何解读？美债与美股均已接近左侧。1）各期限美债左侧看多机会逐渐显现。2）美股的最后一跌尚未完成，或仍有10%左右的跌幅，但时间上或接近拐点。3）美元指数见顶还需待欧洲能源危机警报解除，人民币仍存一定贬值压力，外部环境对人民币计价资产仍有负面影响。正文一、不堪重负的财政与“加不起息”的联储我们在6月美联储议息会议点评《是时候考虑FED结束加息的条件了》中就曾指出，美联储已经“加不起息”了，但距离加息结束仍欠缺一个理由。与6月观察到的情况相比，在持续加息、缩表之下，目前美联储与财政压力进一步加重。1）今年美国财政部或将拿出名义GDP的近3%偿还国债利息，为2001年以来之最美国财政部每年要支出多少债务利息？这与两个因素有关，第一是政府杠杆率，第二是债务期限结构或者说是国债久期。如图1所示，2008年金融危机前美国债务利息占总债务（包括州及地方政府）的比重基本上明显低于10年期美债收益率，但金融危机后几乎相当。这一变化与金融危机后美国政府开始增加长期债务有关。不过，这也让我们在匡算美国债务利息支出中找到了锚，美国国债久期约等于10年期美债久期。那么，今年美国财政部要支付多少债务利息？截至9月2日，10年期美债收益率年内均值为2.57%，Q2美国政府杠杆率为123%。假若上述数据维持至年底，则今年美国财政部要支付的国债利息大约为名义GDP的3.15%。该数值已经是2001年以来最高，比2018年的3.05%还要更高。财政压力过大就是美联储结束加息的理由吗？我们并不能说，财政成本高企就是美联储结束加息的理由，但这起码是约束财政宽松的理由，而在经济增长放缓后，假若财政难以发力，势必会加剧经济下行压力，并进而引发美联储货币政策转向，2018年就是个很好的例子。2）加息、缩表冲击下，美联储连续巨亏2022年一季度美联储在公开市场操作中巨亏了3305亿美元，且二季度形势更加严峻，美联储又亏掉了7199亿美元。也即，上半年美联储就直接亏掉了超过10504亿美元，而美联储资产负债表规模峰值（5月中旬）也仅为89954.9亿美元。何以巨亏？加息缩表引发美债与MBS收益率飙升。相比之下，而2018年美联储全年亏损926.1亿美元之后就曾结束加息。那么，从加息成本的角度看，美联储的心理关口在哪儿？二、3.5%的10Y美债收益率看似是美联储的心理关口我们在8月20日报告《大类资产的天平向哪儿倾斜？》中指出，6月以来10年期美债收益率的过山车走势与美联储缩表节奏及其表态变化有关。5月FOMC上，美联储曾宣布6-8月缩减300亿美元美债/月，9月开始提速至600亿美元美债/月。但实际上，6月美联储仅缩减了54.8亿美元的美债。并且，7月美联储表态整体偏鸽，加息幅度上也没有令市场出现预期差。从数据上看，似乎是在各个期限（特别是10年期）美债收益率有所回落之后，美联储才重新提速缩表的。我们在点评报告《再度转鹰的鲍威尔才是关键》中亦指出，Jackson Hole全球央行会议上鲍威尔态度转鹰也是中期选举前的无奈之举。由于6月10年期美债收益率高点在3.495%，因此，我们有理由怀疑3.5%的10年期美债收益率极有可能算是美联储的心理关口。一旦如此，基准利率也不应明显、持续超过3.5%。当然，这并不代表10年期美债收益率或者基准利率不会超过这一水平，而是说只要看到经济数据支持或者政治诉求允许，美联储就极有可能在这一水平附近转鸽。三、现实条件允许美联储转鸽吗？9月FOMC可能是个分水岭首先，美国通胀处于顶部，年底到明年初中枢将明显下移。能源基数抬高、房价增速下降以及二手车等疫后结构性需求放缓共振之下，美国通胀峰值已过，年底到明年初将迎来中枢显著下移。当然，很多朋友会认为，只要核心PCE同比未降至2%下方，美联储就要持续加息，毕竟Jackson Hole会议上鲍威尔也是这样表态的。但事实上，鲍威尔的表态是动态的，2018年上任以来，每隔半年到一年美联储就会重新确立一个新的政策基调。并且，美联储本就有两个政策目标，除了通胀，还有就业。就业目标终将打败通胀目标，失业率“持续”回升已在路上。我们想象一下，如果每个家庭有一张利润表，收入端由就业等因素决定，成本端受通胀等因素影响。在就业与收入稳定的阶段，成本因素就是利润率的关键。一旦失业进而丧失现金流，那么“找工作开源”与“消耗储蓄节流”之间，更应该的是努力找工作，进而就业就成为了核心矛盾。当前，美联储之所以强调通胀压力，是因为就业尚无压力。但8月失业率回升以及初请、续请等高频指标转差，已经说明就业市场开始有些负面变化。一旦失业率连续3个月回升就将进入回升趋势，届时美联储势必结束加息。美联储何时转鸽？我们猜测9月FOMC后将是分水岭。8月就业数据公布后，9月加息75BP预期略有降温，但我们在Jackson Hole全球央行会议点评中亦曾强调鲍威尔突然变鹰或与中期选举前的拜登“支持率保卫战”有关，在通胀难以大幅回落之际，表达打压通胀的决心也能赢得选民支持。但近期随着美联储转鹰，美股开始下挫。我们预计临近中期选举之际，美联储亦将兼顾资产价格与市场风险偏好，所以假若9月FOMC上落地了75BP加息靴子，随后转鸽概率就将变大。四、市场如何解读？美债与美股均已接近左侧首先，我们坚持此前的观点，Q4美联储将结束加息，各期限美债左侧看多机会逐渐显现。预计11月美联储或将基准利率提升至3.5%附近，随后12月正式结束加息。此外，假若9月FOMC后美联储将逐步转鸽，那么10年期美债收益率大概率将在9月中旬附近在3.5%左右再度见顶随后回落。而2年期美债收益率也有望在10月见顶回落。目前，从时间与空间来看，各期限美债收益率都已经非常接近顶部，左侧看多机会开始显现。第二，美股的最后一跌尚未完成，或仍有10%左右的跌幅，但时间上或接近拐点。若以10年期美债收益率维持在现有水平3.2%附近、标普500指数风险溢价（截至9月2日为0.2%）回升至1%为基准假设，那么标普500指数还有19.0%的跌幅。若以10年期美债收益率维持在现有水平3.2%附近、标普500指数风险溢价回升至0.5%为基准假设，那么标普500指数还有8.1%的跌幅。但考虑到9月中下旬10年期美债收益率可能会见顶回落，加上美股下跌速度较急，因此，美股的最终跌幅或在10%附近，且亦有可能已经非常接近低点。第三，美元指数见顶还需待欧洲能源危机警报解除，人民币仍存一定贬值压力。我们在《大类资产的天平向哪儿倾斜》等报告中指出，美元近期走强与欧洲能源危机担忧有关。在G7计划为俄罗斯能源限价的背景下，俄罗斯宣布无限期暂停通过北溪-1号向欧洲供气。我们在报告《欧洲能源危机的可能及影响》中也指出，Q4欧洲爆发能源危机或为大概率。一旦如此，欧元的疲软或将进一步推升美元指数，本周各种风险因素交织之下，美元就曾试探110。当然，如果欧洲能熬过这个冬天，未来再度出现能源危机的概率就会下降。再加上我们预计美联储将于年底结束加息，因此预计美元的顶或在今年底到明年初。这就意味着，未来数月人民币汇率仍有一定贬值压力，外部环境对于人民币计价资产仍是负面因素。风险提示：中美货币政策超预期；全球疫情超预期；中美经济超预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SH":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SSO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1496,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":687272750,"gmtCreate":1661137063175,"gmtModify":1676536759237,"author":{"id":"3470796964701736","authorId":"3470796964701736","name":"1小龙女1","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3470796964701736","idStr":"3470796964701736"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"😀","listText":"😀","text":"😀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/687272750","repostId":"1176039020","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176039020","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1661131264,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176039020?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-22 09:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Hong Kong stocks open | Hang Seng Index open low 1.01%, Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.41%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176039020","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月22日讯，美联储激进加息担忧再起，热门中概股连跌四周。港股今日低开，恒指跌1.01%，国指跌1.19%，恒生科技指数跌1.4%。盘面上，大型科技股普遍下跌，美团、小米、快手均跌2%，阿里巴巴、京东","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ac6f3c556527ed76e58397d8a675b05\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>August 22 - Concerns about the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike have resurfaced, causing popular Chinese concept stocks to fall for four consecutive weeks. Hong Kong stocks were open low today, with the Hang Seng Index down 1.01%, the Hang Seng Index down 1.19%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.4%.</p><p>On the market, major tech stocks generally declined, with Meituan, Xiaomi, and Kuaishou all falling by 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">Baidu</a>It fell more than 1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">NetEase</a>Bucking the trend, it rose 1.5%; Gas stocks and photovoltaic glass stocks saw the largest declines, while home appliance stocks, internet healthcare stocks, insurance stocks, automobile stocks, and catering stocks generally fell. On the other hand, biotechnology stocks continued to be active, with some shipping stocks, mainland real estate stocks, and property management stocks rising due to plans to acquire high-quality assets.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00493\">Gome Retail</a>It opened 8.6% higher.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01070\">TCL Electronics</a>The stock price fell by more than 11% after the earnings report, and net profit attributable to the parent company in the first half of the year decreased by 76.1% year-on-year</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00493\">Gome Retail</a>It rose 8.6% after resuming trading, after previously announcing plans to restructure its business segments, divest loss-making businesses, and inject partial equity in two properties owned by the major shareholder and Anxun Logistics.</p><p>Recommended reading:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2261359331\" target=\"_blank\">Opinion | What will the semi-annual adjustment of the Hang Seng Index and the Hong Kong Stock Connect bring?</a></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong stocks open | Hang Seng Index open low 1.01%, Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.41%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong stocks open | Hang Seng Index open low 1.01%, Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.41%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-08-22 09:21</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ac6f3c556527ed76e58397d8a675b05\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>August 22 - Concerns about the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike have resurfaced, causing popular Chinese concept stocks to fall for four consecutive weeks. Hong Kong stocks were open low today, with the Hang Seng Index down 1.01%, the Hang Seng Index down 1.19%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.4%.</p><p>On the market, major tech stocks generally declined, with Meituan, Xiaomi, and Kuaishou all falling by 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">Baidu</a>It fell more than 1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">NetEase</a>Bucking the trend, it rose 1.5%; Gas stocks and photovoltaic glass stocks saw the largest declines, while home appliance stocks, internet healthcare stocks, insurance stocks, automobile stocks, and catering stocks generally fell. On the other hand, biotechnology stocks continued to be active, with some shipping stocks, mainland real estate stocks, and property management stocks rising due to plans to acquire high-quality assets.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00493\">Gome Retail</a>It opened 8.6% higher.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01070\">TCL Electronics</a>The stock price fell by more than 11% after the earnings report, and net profit attributable to the parent company in the first half of the year decreased by 76.1% year-on-year</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00493\">Gome Retail</a>It rose 8.6% after resuming trading, after previously announcing plans to restructure its business segments, divest loss-making businesses, and inject partial equity in two properties owned by the major shareholder and Anxun Logistics.</p><p>Recommended reading:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2261359331\" target=\"_blank\">Opinion | What will the semi-annual adjustment of the Hang Seng Index and the Hong Kong Stock Connect bring?</a></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{"513600":"恒生指数ETF南方","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","02833":"恒指ETF","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176039020","content_text":"8月22日讯，美联储激进加息担忧再起，热门中概股连跌四周。港股今日低开，恒指跌1.01%，国指跌1.19%，恒生科技指数跌1.4%。盘面上，大型科技股普遍下跌，美团、小米、快手均跌2%，阿里巴巴、京东、百度跌超1%，网易逆势涨1.5%；燃气股、光伏玻璃股跌幅居前，家电股、互联网医疗股、保险股、汽车股、餐饮股普跌。另一方面，生物科技股继续活跃，海运股、内房股与物管股部分上涨，拟收购优质资产，国美零售高开8.6%。TCL电子绩后跌超11%，上半年归母净利同比降76.1%。国美零售复牌后涨8.6%，此前宣布拟重组业务板块，剥离亏损业务，注入大股东两处物业及安迅物流部分股权。推荐阅读：观点 | 恒指及港股通半年度调整带来什么？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513600":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"02833":0.9,"HHImain":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,"MHImain":0.9,"MCHmain":0.9,"HSImain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1224,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
