PeterDiCarlo
PeterDiCarlo
Quant Trader 💻 NEVER FINANCIAL ADVICE
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avatarPeterDiCarlo
12-18 21:57

My Market Framework: BX Trender, Timeframes, and How I Trade

New here? This thread is your guide to reading my analysis and market write‑ups. 🧵It explains how I use the BX Trender and multiple timeframes so you can see the market the way I do.This is educational only, not financial advice.Almost everything I do starts with one question:“What is the Monthly BX Trender doing?”I use it as my macro filter to separate real institutional money flow from noise and dead cat bounces. If I sound “patient,” this is why.My timeframe rules are simple:• Monthly BX = Big Picture / big trend (the boss)• Weekly = path inside that trend• Daily = execution detailsIf they ever conflict, the higher timeframe wins. Monthly > Weekly > Daily. Always.So in practice:• If Monthly BX is green or increasing, I’m only interested in names aligned with that macro uptrend.• I
My Market Framework: BX Trender, Timeframes, and How I Trade
avatarPeterDiCarlo
12-17 16:11

Crypto short‑term bottom might be in

Crypto short‑term bottom might be in. 🚨 $Strategy(MSTR)$ $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ $BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc.(BMNR)$ $Riot Platforms(RIOT)$ $CleanSpark, Inc.(CLSK)$ $MARA Holdings(MARA)$ Bitcoin is holding the Smart Money Zone, which is usually where institutions step in. With the Monthly BX still red, I’m expecting a 10–20% bounce before another move down to test ~$80K.I’m not taking trades here. Risk vs reward isn’t high enough but it does look like a short‑term bottom forming. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA to
Crypto short‑term bottom might be in
avatarPeterDiCarlo
12-17 16:08

Market Moves: Buying ORCL's Dip, Riding NVDA's Flow, Tracking TSLA's Breakout

1. $Oracle(ORCL)$ Oracle just dumped 45% in 3 months… and it might be my favorite dip on the board. 👀My BX bull‑cycle model still has ORCL on track, and from here the downside I’m risking is ~12–13% vs 80–100% upside into 2026 if this level holds. I’d take that 6:1 setup every time.I just posted a full video breaking down the levels, stop, and targets I’d use on this trade. 2. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ I just followed a $14.9M options whale into NVDA, targeting ~$225 by end of Q1 2026. 🎯Monthly BX flipped bull in June and we’re already +28%, but anything under $193 is still a discount in my model. Worst case I see a dip to $160–165 before the next leg. 3. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</
Market Moves: Buying ORCL's Dip, Riding NVDA's Flow, Tracking TSLA's Breakout
avatarPeterDiCarlo
12-16 14:25

$NVDA Bull Case, $AMD Wait Zone, $MSTR Needs Confirmation

1. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ I’ve got NVDA at $225 by end of Q1 2026. 🎯 Monthly BX flipped bull in June and we’re already +28%. Under $193 is a discount; worst case I see a dip to $160–165 before the next leg and ~30% upside in the next 90–110 days. 2. $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ Where I plan to buy AMD again 👀We called the summer bottom and rode it +140%, then cut all longs in October once price stretched way above our BX path (~$160 by Dec 2026; $320 by late 2027).Monthly BX is still bullish, but we’re not in a discount zone.I only get back in if BX stays green and we pull back to $150–160. Patience over chasing. 3. $Strategy(MSTR)$ MSTR is in an extreme discount zone,
$NVDA Bull Case, $AMD Wait Zone, $MSTR Needs Confirmation
avatarPeterDiCarlo
12-16 14:24

Cycle Matters: $HOOD Cooling, $PATH Overextended, $AMZN Setup

1. $Robinhood(HOOD)$ HOOD bull cycle might be entering the 8th inning. ⚠️Monthly BX has been green for ~18 months (macro bull), and our last big trade was off the April 2025 discount bias level. Since then it’s run hard, and I see room for another ~14% drop into weekly bias discount before a real dip‑buy setup.Unless we get that pullback and Monthly BX stays green, the risk/reward isn’t worth buying HOOD here. 2. $UiPath(PATH)$ PATH ripped +50% since our structure flipped from bearish to bullish… but I’m not a buyer here.For a year it was making lower highs/lows (no‑go for longs). The signal was the change of character when price broke that last lower high, then pulled back to ~$13 in November – that high
Cycle Matters: $HOOD Cooling, $PATH Overextended, $AMZN Setup
avatarPeterDiCarlo
12-16 14:22

$LULU, $ORCL & $PLTR:Three Setups, Three Decisions,Buy, Buy the Dip, or Wait

1. $Lululemon Athletica(LULU)$ LULU 2026 target $300 and 2027 target $450 are still on the table. 📌Since we called the bottom it’s already up ~30% and short‑term structure is flipping from bearish to bullish. Typically that means a run toward $250, then a pullback to a higher low.Worst case over the next 2–3 months I see a dip toward ~$190, then institutions stepping in and driving it toward $300. 2. $Oracle(ORCL)$ Do not ignore this $ORCL pullback. 👀Our bull‑cycle strategy went long in June and $ORCL ran ~100%. The model had us around $180 by Dec 2025, so even after this drop we’re basically right on schedule.If December’s Monthly BX stays green, this is a dip I want. If BX flips red, we take a small los
$LULU, $ORCL & $PLTR:Three Setups, Three Decisions,Buy, Buy the Dip, or Wait

Key Market Setups: SPY Pullback Risk, LULU Bottoming, RIVN Breakout, TSLA Strength

1. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Everyone’s screaming “crash” because $SPY is red today. I’m still bullish long‑term… but here’s the actual worst‑case I see. ⚠️BX data still has us in a bull cycle targeting 750–800 into 2026, yet a 5–8% shakeout in the next 1–2 months is on the table.2. $Lululemon Athletica(LULU)$ My $LULU bottom call is just getting started. Pin This📌In September I said “bottom is in” around $160 Now we’re at $206 now and my BX system + a $2.3M 2027 call order both point to $300–$500 into 2026–27.3. $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ RIVN breakout is finally here. 🚀Back in September I mapped out a $30 target by end of 2026. We’re already up ~35%
Key Market Setups: SPY Pullback Risk, LULU Bottoming, RIVN Breakout, TSLA Strength

CRSP & GRAB: Bull-Cycle Setups Triggering Fresh Rallies

1. $CRISPR Therapeutics AG(CRSP)$ CRSP bounce looks clean. 👀Price is ripping right off weekly bias support and this setup could easily fuel a 50%+ move in the next 3–6 months.Monthly BX is green (bull cycle) and weekly bias has us in the discount range. Looking good for the bulls. 😎Shoutout to Nick from the private community for spotting it. 2. $Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ Last three times this setup hit on GRAB, price rallied 30%+.Monthly BX Green = Bull CycleWeekly Bias Tested = Discount RangeVolume Pro Shelf = Strong SupportTime to see if buyers show up ⬆️ For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as
CRSP & GRAB: Bull-Cycle Setups Triggering Fresh Rallies

SPY Worst-Case Map & NFLX Caution Signal

1. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ For all the SPY bears 🚨 This would be the worst case "correction" scenario. Nothing is confirmed. Everything is still bullish. But this would be the worst I would expect. No "AI Bubble" popping 2. $Netflix(NFLX)$ Last time NFLX Monthly BX was dark red we sold off 70% in less than a yearI'm NOT saying that will happen now, but this is a clear reason why we don't just "buy the dip."We need true confirmation of a bottom before burning money NFLX just tagged the $92.50 Smart Money Zone, right where we expected. 👀That’s usually a strong spot for a short‑term bounce, but I’m still not taking a position yet. I want to see the Monthly BX close a higher low first before I even t
SPY Worst-Case Map & NFLX Caution Signal

Market Outlook: SOFI Patience, NIO Reversal, NVO Signal, OSCR Dip Buy

1. $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ I’m not buying SOFI here. ❌Monthly BX bull cycle is still in play and the stock is up ~100% from the June signal, but we’re in the 7th inning and not trading at a real discount. I’d rather wait for a pullback into the $22–$24 bias zone for better R:R.2. $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ NIO bottom setup I’m taking. 👀I think there’s a 55–65% chance we see 70–80% upside in the next 3–6 months. Monthly BX is green, weekly structure just flipped bullish, and a $1.5M March call order hit the tape.3. $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ NVO bottom signal detected. 🚨BX system just flipped to buy at a major discount zone and a $2.28M 2027 call order hit the tape.I’m lon
Market Outlook: SOFI Patience, NIO Reversal, NVO Signal, OSCR Dip Buy

Market Watch: BMNR’s Major Test, MSTR’s Potential Bottom, NFLX Trigger Pending, TSLA Still Bullish

1. $BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc.(BMNR)$ BMNR ripped 54% straight off the exact support we mapped on Nov 21.Now we’re heading into the real test:the $50–$55 volume shelf.That level decides whether this turns into a simple bounce or a massive breakout.2. $Strategy(MSTR)$ MSTR is bouncing right where bottoms usually form… but my system still says WAIT.Triple support is there. Buyers are stepping in.Only ONE confirmation is missing.If it triggers, I’ll go heavy.3. $Netflix(NFLX)$ If you’ve ever mistimed a dip… don’t touch $ NFLX until you see this.It’s down nearly 30%, but the real buy signal hasn’t fired.I show the exact criteria this needs before I’ll risk a
Market Watch: BMNR’s Major Test, MSTR’s Potential Bottom, NFLX Trigger Pending, TSLA Still Bullish

Big Moves - BMNR Rips, TSLA Tests Support, ALAB Ready to Run

1. $BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc.(BMNR)$ BMNR is up 38% since we flagged this support level as a potential bottom.Reason it bounced? I didn’t buy. 🤣Jokes aside, weekly bias nailed it. From here I’m expecting, best case, a push toward $45 before we see a real rejection. 2. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ TSLA dumped 3% today. Not the end of the world. ⚠️We’ve still got a full week ahead and I’m watching $440 as the first bounce zone.Comment if you want a full TSLA video update after tomorrow’s close. 👇 3. $Astera Labs, Inc.(ALAB)$ Called out ALAB to subscribers on Dec 2… it’s already up 15% and looks ready to explode. 🚀Descending wedge + BX increasing – all the signals
Big Moves - BMNR Rips, TSLA Tests Support, ALAB Ready to Run

NFLX Wait, IONQ Trending, NIO A+ Dip Zone

1. $Netflix(NFLX)$ NFLX is down 25% since June, but this is not my buy spot yet.Price is pulling back into the institutional buy zone, but BX still isn’t showing real buyers stepping in. I’m staying patientOnce we get confirmation, that’s when I’ll look to go long. ✅ 2. $IONQ Inc.(IONQ)$ IONQ is already up 15% since we entered and it’s looking strong.Monthly BX is showing clear buying pressure and the weekly bias is bouncing.Now the job is simple: stay patient and let this expansion play out over the next few weeks. 3. $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ NIO high‑probability bounce zone. 👀Monthly BX is showing buying pressure and we’re in a bull cycle. Price just pulled back into the
NFLX Wait, IONQ Trending, NIO A+ Dip Zone

3-Stock Technical Outlook: NVDA Strong, META Uncertain, OPEN Waiting

1. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ This is the reload area for $NVDA.It’s already up 34% since the start of the latest Monthly BX bull cycle. 🔁A pullback to $155–$160 would be a gift, but that may not come. If I were looking to hold for 3–6 months, this is already a solid spot to start building a position. 2. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ I’m not convinced this is the bottom for $META yet. ❌Nice bounce the last two weeks, but Monthly BX still shows sellers in control. I’m standing aside for now and expecting this short‑term rally to fade, then a “dead cat” move lower into our Smart Money Zone before I get interested. 3. $Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$ OPEN keeps compressing, but
3-Stock Technical Outlook: NVDA Strong, META Uncertain, OPEN Waiting

CLSK and the Myth of Win Rate

In November I made $70K on $CleanSpark, Inc.(CLSK)$ in 10 days… and was still down over $100K on the month. 🩸Same system. Same rules. Different sequence. Most traders see that and think “system is broken” and go hunting for a new one.The real issue isn’t the system, it’s how you think about it.Win rate is overrated.What actually matters is:– average win vs average loss– how much you make when you’re right– how little you lose when you’re wrong.Example: risk 1R per trade.When you’re right, you make +3R.When you’re wrong, you lose -1R.Win rate: 50% (a coin flip).10 trades:5 wins → +15R5 losses → -5RNet: +10RYou were “wrong” half the time and still crushed it.That’s how my real trading looks: win rate ~60%, but average win way bigger than average los
CLSK and the Myth of Win Rate

OSCR/SOFI/PLTR – Bull Cycles Continue, Patience Key

1. $Oscar Health, Inc.(OSCR)$ OSCR has played out almost perfectly and keeps squeezing inside the monthly market bias.Taking a bit but I still think $30 by April is on the table.Now it’s just about being patient and letting it cook. 🧑‍🍳 2. $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ SOFI is in the 7th inning of its bull cycle. 🟢Monthly BX confirmed July 1 and the stock is now up 70%+. Our model’s best case is $36 by Feb 2026.For me that makes $SOFI a hold, not a buy – bullish signs are there, but R:R isn’t good enough to start a new long here. 3. $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Do NOT short PLTR here. ❌Our Monthly BX bull cycle triggered around $7.74 and the stock is now u
OSCR/SOFI/PLTR – Bull Cycles Continue, Patience Key

Tech Stocks – AMZN/MSFT Dip-Buy, DUOL Early Bottom

1. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ AMZN dip‑buy signal just triggered. 🚨Monthly BX bull cycle is still in play after November closed green. When BX is green and price pulls back, that’s usually a high‑probability dip.We need a bounce this month or the cycle dies.I’m expecting a December bounce and a push toward $300 in the next 3–6 months. 2. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ MSFT dip‑buy I’m stalking. 👀Monthly BX bull cycle is still in play after November closed green. When BX is green and price pulls back, that’s usually a high‑probability dip.If this holds, I’m pricing in a move toward $600 by April–May 2026. 3. $Duolingo, Inc.(DUOL)$ DUOL early bottom signs showing up. 👀Monthly BX is sti
Tech Stocks – AMZN/MSFT Dip-Buy, DUOL Early Bottom

TSLA Setup Clarified: $440 Resistance and the Path to $600

This is why a system > feelings on $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ .After 11 years I still deviate sometimes. Monthly BX says buy. Weekly BX says buy. But I “hate” the daily chart right now.Reality: my feelings don’t matter, the system does. If $TSLA holds over $440 today, that’s our first real breakout signal. For anyone saying I’m “flip-flopping” on $TSLANothing has changed.My outlook has been the same for weeks:• 3–5 months: looking for $600• Worst-case shorter term: around $350$440 is the last key resistance TSLAFor SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here.Complete your first Cash Boost Account trade with a tr
TSLA Setup Clarified: $440 Resistance and the Path to $600

2026 Bull Case Breakdown: Key Targets for AAPL, UNH, SPY & TSLA

1. $Apple(AAPL)$ I closed all my AAPL calls even though our BX model still prices $340–$400 by 2026.Back in July I called for $255–$265 by Dec 2025 and we’re already at $284.2. $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ UNH Will hit $500 in 2026 📌I’m long 300 shares from $256 and our BX model is pricing in $450–$500 by end of 2026 after this pullback into Smart Money Zones + quarterly bias.3. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ "AI bubble" isn’t popping anytime soon for SPY Monthly BX still says we’re in a bull cycle 🔁Past cycles like this averaged ~28% rallies… which would price in $750+ over the next 6–12 months.4. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ 3 Insanel
2026 Bull Case Breakdown: Key Targets for AAPL, UNH, SPY & TSLA

TSLA Needs $440 Reclaim or Expect Downside

I hate how $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ looks short term. ⚠️Monthly / long‑term I still think we can see $600 in the next 6 months… but the daily chart is ugly:1️⃣ Volume profile resistance at $420–$4302️⃣ Big gap down to $3503️⃣ Daily bias is bearish.To avoid a dump toward $350, I want to see a close above $440 and daily bias flip back to green.Until then: expect the worst, hope for the best.For the sake of my April 2026 calls I hope I am wrong ❌ For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here.Complete your first Cash Boost Account trade with a trade amount of ≥ SGD1000* to get SGD 688 stock vouchers*! The trade can
TSLA Needs $440 Reclaim or Expect Downside

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