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avatarOptionsDelta
02-03 23:23

Massive 300k Contract VIX Order Opened, Guard Against Sudden Plunge

$VIX$ Another massive bullish volatility order has appeared. The March 18th expiry 35 call $VIX 20260318 35.0 CALL$  traded 300,000 contracts for a total notional value of over $20 million. Opened around the same time was the February 18th expiry 35 call $VIX 20260218 35.0 CALL$ , trading 250,000 contracts. Based on SPY's option activity, the probability of a major decline this week seems low. However, historical patterns suggest a non-negligible chance of a correction starting in late February. $GOOGL$ Google now enjoys the privilege of Monday & Wednesday weekly expiry options, though none expire on its actual earnings day. As the current undisputed l
Massive 300k Contract VIX Order Opened, Guard Against Sudden Plunge
avatarOptionsDelta
02-03 01:25

Observing Short-Dated Option Activity

$NVDA$ This week marks the launch of Monday and Wednesday weekly expiry options. For these new short-dated contracts, we'll observe for a week before formulating strategies. Overall, NVDA's price is expected to remain below 195 this week. Institutions continue selling the 195 call $NVDA 20260206 195.0 CALL$ , hedged by buying the 200 call $NVDA 20260206 200.0 CALL$ . The lower bound is more nuanced. 170 remains a potential target, but stability around 190 cannot be ruled out. Analyzing open interest for the Feb 2nd and Feb 4th expiries suggests the possibility of a minor pullback in NVDA following earnings from AMD or Google. $AMD$ The rise of agentic
Observing Short-Dated Option Activity

【Options Insight】Weekly Options Roundup: Tech and Healthcare Swings Drive Community Profits

As market volatility shifts across tech and healthcare, our community of options traders is quick to capitalize. Microsoft’s Q2 earnings report has stirred up the markets. The company posted $81.27 billion in total revenue, with its Intelligent Cloud segment hitting $32.91 billion. While Azure grew 38% year-over-year, the 1% slowdown from last quarter left some investors wanting more. Meanwhile, a record $37.5billion in capital expenditure on AI “super factories” and data centers has raised concerns over when these investments will pay off. On the AI front, Microsoft launched its new Maia 200 inference chip and now counts 15 million Copilot enterprise licenses, but it still trails rivals like Google and remains heavily reliant on OpenAI. This dependency adds a layer of uncertainty to its o
【Options Insight】Weekly Options Roundup: Tech and Healthcare Swings Drive Community Profits

Mega $10M+ Order Sells Calls on Gold ETF, Signaling a Potential Top

$GLD$ Today, scanning large orders, I was startled to see a massive call buy on the Gold ETF: $GLD 20260213 505.0 CALL$ , with 80,000 contracts traded for a total notional value of $71.33 million. Later, I discovered an equally large sell call order. Placed simultaneously, they likely constitute a paired, combination order—specifically, a Bear Call Spread: Sell Call $GLD 20260213 495.0 CALL$ , Buy Call $GLD 20260213 505.0 CALL$ . This positions for GLD to be below 495 by February 13th, with the long 505 call serving as protection. At this stage, the conviction behind a sell call order c
Mega $10M+ Order Sells Calls on Gold ETF, Signaling a Potential Top
avatarRabBird
01-30
Thanks for the mention! Remember to always limit your exposure!

It's Time to Buy the Dip in Apple

$AAPL$ Apple has seen a large bullish call order. The May 15th expiry 285 call $AAPL 20260515 285.0 CALL$  had 69,000 contracts opened, with a total notional value of approximately $34+ million. Although I believe Apple's performance this year may still be weighed down by high memory prices, this doesn't prevent the market and large investors from perceiving a potential bottom. With earnings this week, selling the 250 put is an option: $AAPL 20260130 250.0 PUT$ . $FXI$ Regarding the large bearish China ETF orders, I discovered someone shared my analysis in a group, causing some panic. However, a massive, deep out-of-the-money bearish order like
It's Time to Buy the Dip in Apple

Summary of Large Orders

Last Thursday saw several unusually large bearish orders opened, with the direction for most being somewhat ambiguous: $NVDA 20260130 165.0 PUT$  opened 126.6k contracts$AMD 20260130 220.0 PUT$  opened 59.5k contracts$SMH 20260130 370.0 PUT$  opened 57.9k contracts$AVGO 20260130 297.5 PUT$  opened 48k contracts$ORCL 20260130 152.5 PUT$  opened 44.4k contracts$TSM 20260130 295.0 PUT$  op
Summary of Large Orders

Massive 230k Contract Deep Out-of-the-Money China ETF Put Order

$FXI$ The March 20th expiry 33 put saw a massive purchase of 230,000 contracts over Tuesday and Wednesday. Although the trade price was only around $0.17, the sheer volume resulted in a total notional value exceeding $3 million. The current FXI price is $39. The delta for the 33 strike is only 0.069. Trades at this level are typically bets on a "black swan" event, with notional values in the tens of thousands. Spending millions on this is essentially throwing money away. Therefore, the trader either has genuine insider knowledge of a major impending negative event or holds an enormous long portfolio and needs to hedge against a potential flash crash. In either case, it signals expectations of a significant volatility spike. The profit mechanism for such deep OTM options isn't just the pric
Massive 230k Contract Deep Out-of-the-Money China ETF Put Order

Tech Giants Earnings Week: AI & Storage in Focus, IV Crush Options Strategy Explained

Major US tech companies reporting earnings this week include Tesla, Microsoft, META, AAPL, and storage giants STX, SNDK, and WDC. Earnings Focus Points: 🚀 Tesla's earnings focus has shifted from short-term financials to long-term tech breakthroughs. Key post-earnings price drivers will be: 1) Substantive progress on frontier tech like Robotaxi deployment without safety drivers; 2) The timeline for FSD to reach "eyes-off" unsupervised versions; 3) Whether 2026 delivery, gross margin, and free cash flow guidance are more pessimistic than market consensus, heightening concerns over near-term profitability and cash burn. 🚀 Microsoft's earnings focus is on whether Azure cloud growth can exceed expectations, the inflection point in Copilot adoption and its impact on Office ARPU, and if concerns
Tech Giants Earnings Week: AI & Storage in Focus, IV Crush Options Strategy Explained

【Options Insight】Weekly Options Roundup: Mega Gains on INTC, AMD & PLTR

Another week of explosive options action is in the books! 🚀 This week, our community locked in massive wins across Intel, AMD, and Palantir. Let’s dive into the standout trades and see how our members turned market momentum into serious profits. Intel has been front and center in the markets this week, fresh off securing a landmark $151 billion indefinite-delivery contract for the U.S. Department of War’s SHIELD program. Adding to the buzz, Intel is set to report its quarterly earnings after the market closes on January 22 , sending investor sentiment into overdrive. HSBC just hiked its target price from $26 to $50 and upgraded its rating from “Reduce” to “Hold,” while Wedbush analysts believe strong server CPU demand could power a solid quarter. But challenges persist. Rising memory costs
【Options Insight】Weekly Options Roundup: Mega Gains on INTC, AMD & PLTR

Is Apple a Buy-the-Dip Candidate?

$AAPL$Consumer electronics this year face a major unified issue: memory is too expensive. From computers down to smartphones, any device with storage is affected. Consumers are highly likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach with their cash.It seems consumer electronics stocks might struggle this year, at least in the first half.Of course, the answer to "when to buy the dip" is quite simple: follow the whales. When Duan Yongping says he wants to buy Apple in size, that's probably the time to consider it.There has been significant selling of the 280 calls expiring in February and March $AAPL 20260213 280.0 CALL$ , indicating the market doesn't expect a major Q1 rebound. Even the January 2027 expiry 280 calls
Is Apple a Buy-the-Dip Candidate?
$TSLA$ Tesla reports earnings after the market closes on Wednesday. Currently, anxiety outweighs expectations. There might be little news on autonomous driving, but 2026 delivery figures may not be very optimistic, likely slightly higher than 2025 deliveries. The expected trading range is between 400 and 465. If the stock price drops after earnings tomorrow, it would be more suitable for selling puts. $MSFT$ Earnings prospects are not particularly optimistic. The focus is on cloud business growth, Copilot monetization, and capital expenditures. The latter two have a probability of being underwhelming. If Microsoft's capex disappoints, it could weigh on other tech and chip stocks. Of course, a pullback also presents an opportunity. The weekly expiry 445 call

East Rising, West Falling?

$NVDA$This Friday, January 16th, is the monthly options expiration, with a massive number of contracts expiring. Following the principle of "pinning to max pain" based on the largest open interest concentrations for calls and puts, NVIDIA's stock price is expected to gravitate towards a pullback, currently targeting around 170.Institutions' arbitrage strategy this week involves selling the 188 call $NVDA 20260116 188.0 CALL$  and hedging by buying the 193 call $NVDA 20260116 193.0 CALL$ .The lowest expected pullback price is seen around 150. I've considered this; it might be due to DeepSeek potentially releasing its V4 version around the Chinese New Ye
East Rising, West Falling?

【Options Insight】Weekly Options Roundup: Tech Narratives Drive Big Wins

When volatility rises, options traders are often the first to spot opportunity.This week, Google made another big splash in healthcare AI. It first rolled out an update to its open-source medical AI model MedGemma 1.5, helping doctors read medical images more easily and analyse clinical records more efficiently. At the same time, Google introduced a speech-to-text system optimised specifically for medical settings, making clinical documentation and note-taking far more efficient in day-to-day practice.Across the industry, healthcare is rapidly embracing AI. AI deployment in healthcare is running at 2.2× the speed of other industries, with players like OpenAI and major Chinese tech companies all racing to stake their claims in this space, the heat in this sector has clearly reached a new hi
【Options Insight】Weekly Options Roundup: Tech Narratives Drive Big Wins

The Battle for the Large Model Throne Takes a Pause

$NVDA$Starting next week, NVIDIA will add Monday and Wednesday weekly expirations. These new intra-week options are perfect for premium sellers to "farm theta." We'll examine them more closely once they launch.NVIDIA stands at another crossroads. Bearish option activity shows significant divergence regarding downside expectations, reminiscent of early last year. Puts in the 170-180 range can be interpreted as bullish positioning, expecting NVDA to consolidate above 170, betting on continued AI industry expansion—specifically GPU capacity.The bears targeting levels below 170, even halving the price, have various reasons. On a macro level, there's US-Europe geopolitical friction. From an industry perspective, the view is that Google's Gemini has secured an absolute victory in the foundationa
The Battle for the Large Model Throne Takes a Pause

Nasdaq Approves Monday & Wednesday Short-Term Options for 'Mega-Cap' Stocks

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has formally approved Nasdaq ISE's proposed rule change. Effective January 26, 2026, options on nine "mega-cap" company stocks and ETFs with top-tier market capitalization and liquidity will be added to the "Short Term Option Series (STO) Program," introducing new Monday and Wednesday short-term expiration dates. This move aims to provide traders with more flexible hedging and speculative tools while implementing stringent risk control requirements.Which 'Giants' Are Included in the New Program? (Q1 2026 List)According to the official Nasdaq list for Q1 2026, the following nine securities are the inaugural "Qualifying Securities":Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
Nasdaq Approves Monday & Wednesday Short-Term Options for 'Mega-Cap' Stocks

Can Ctrip be Bought on the Dip?

On Wednesday, a series of bafflingly large bearish orders emerged targeting the AI sector. The scale of these new put option purchases was astonishing, reaching tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars, with a timeframe pointing to before the Lunar New Year.The underlying assets involved include TSMC, Oracle, Broadcom, and the semiconductor ETF SOXX:$TSM 20260220 330.0 PUT$ $TSM 20260220 320.0 PUT$ $ORCL 20260213 160.0 PUT$ $AVGO 20260320 240.0 PUT$ $SOXX 20
Can Ctrip be Bought on the Dip?

From the TRIP.COM: A Practical Breakdown of Short Put Risk Management

Hello everyone. Today, I'd like to use the Ctrip stock crash incident to discuss managing short put positions.What Happened:💡 Cause: On January 14th, based on China's Anti-Monopoly Law, the State Administration for Market Regulation formally launched an investigation into Ctrip for suspected abuse of market dominance.💡 Impact on Stock Price: Ctrip's US-listed stock (Ticker: TCOM) closed at $75.68 on January 13th and plummeted 17% to close at $62.78 on January 14th. Ctrip's Hong Kong-listed stock (Ticker: 09961) closed at HKD 569 on January 14th and fell sharply intraday, down 20% to HKD 452 on January 15th.💡 Impact on Business: Ctrip issued an announcement stating that all company operations are normal and that the investigation has not yet had a material impact on its business.Changes in
From the TRIP.COM: A Practical Breakdown of Short Put Risk Management

Triple Witching? More Like Minor Triple Witch

$SPY$Pressure on the broad market remains significant ahead of the January 16th monthly options expiration, exerting a dampening effect across various sectors. Overall, the outlook remains bullish after this week. However, this week SPY is likely to pull back towards 680, probably closing within the 680-690 range.Notably, during Tuesday's session, someone opened a large position buying 20,000 contracts of the January 23rd expiry VXX 30.5 call $VXX 20260123 30.5 CALL$ , with a notional value of approximately $700,000. The timing of the order was exceptionally precise.$NVDA$I'm now convinced that the volatility during the January monthly options expiration week is more unpredictable than during a regular triple witching week
Triple Witching? More Like Minor Triple Witch

Bullish on TSMC Earnings

$NVDA$A large block trade sold the 220 call $NVDA 20260220 220.0 CALL$ , opening 39,000 contracts. The expiry date chosen is one week before earnings. While selling deep out-of-the-money to capture time value, it shows extreme caution.I've observed something different in bullish openings this year. Sequential, sizeable single-leg openings are occurring in expiring week options, seemingly betting with market makers on the possibility of an extreme short squeeze. However, I expect this week to mirror last week—all these positions will likely expire worthless, with the stock price closing between 170 and 180.That said, I don't believe NVIDIA won't rise. The current US market resembles the A-share market, both experiencing r
Bullish on TSMC Earnings