DeepSeek Become a Threat to Large Cap Tech?

01-29 17:43

DeepSeek is a Massive Tailwind for Software Companies

DeepSeek is a massive tailwind for software companies -- here are 15 names to monitor 🧐1. $ServiceNow(NOW)$ -- Powers digital transformation through automated enterprise workflows, leading the IT management space.2. $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ -- Transforms massive datasets into actionable insights, driving operational efficiency for enterprises.3. $Oracle(ORCL)$ -- Combines AI-driven insights with enterprise resource planning in a unified cloud platform for streamlined decision-making.4. $Snowflake(SNOW)$ – Redefines data management with a collaborative cloud platform designed to unlock enterprise AI opportunities

DeepSeek is a Massive Tailwind for Software Companies

MasterWU

01-29 17:28

Magnificent Seven: What's the Final Impact?

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some technical analysis with you!1.I understand the RED PART of this map, but I am puzzled by the deep green part of this map. Where do these bullish feelings come from? Don't tell me this is rotation, as in a paradigm-shift event, EVERYONE WILL BE IMPACTED. EVERYONE!! The next crash leg is almost ready. $The Magnificent Seven ETF(MAGS)$ Image2.WILD TWO DAYS: (1) in the next 48 hours, your nerve will be tested--as four of Mag-7 will report earnings, juxposted by Powell's presser & FOMC. (2) Make-or-break moment for the indexes as well, when DJI, NYA & SPX are all near ATHs. (3) almost forget, Feb. 1 will be Tariff Day.Image

Magnificent Seven: What's the Final Impact?

Shumer

01-28 22:21

We should not underestimate existential aspect of AI development. Who knows, maybe bitcoin was invented by AI to exploit our greed towards infrastructure imrovements and consciousness replication. First as prerietory models, and later as open-source tamagochi devices connected to a destributed network

Brother272005

01-28

China always like to copy usa product, this time might not be surprise if they have improve the chip.

Barcode

01-28

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 🚨📰🗞️ DeepSeek has restricted registration to its services, ONLY allowing users who have a mainland China mobile phone number to register. The website stated the status as "Monitoring" with the restriction message posted. Why service has been restricted? Nvidia, $NVDA, has now erased -$510 BILLION of market cap during today's session. ~$30 billion more and it doubles the previous record for most market cap lost in a day by a single stock. Source: The Kobeissi Letter

Thomas Flynn

01-27

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ DeepSeek proves that NVDA chips are no longer the only way to create compelling AI and that cheaper chips could be used in replacement. This realization sends NVDA stock into correction mode which who knows when would stop. Below 100? Below 75? Below 50? don't know [LOL][LOL][LOL]

Abbott Cook(e)

01-27

$Apple(AAPL)$ Deepseek AI is beating chatgpt, becoming the top-rated free app on Apple's App Store. [Sly][Sly][Sly]See this is why AAPL never got into AI. [LOL][LOL][LOL]What’s more, Lucky for Apple they didn’t spend any $ on hardware from $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ . All home grown software based [Tongue][Tongue][Tongue]

Abbott Cook(e)

01-27

$Microsoft(MSFT)$ DeepSeek found a OpenAI solution which can run on a low horse power and no one else in the US companies could even think off. There is something which is not connecting the dots. No way this should bring down the whole tech market. This is a super over reaction. IMO a huge buying opportunity today. With one statement from either a tech giant will clarify the situation and it will reverse. Good luck all. [Happy][Happy][Happy]

Marico Samuel

01-27

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Does anyone actually think the top dogs of AI are going to sit back without a rebuttal on the Deepseek claim? Musk, Bezos, JensenKarp, Zuckerberg they will eat this claim alive by noon.Enjoy the dip [Smart][Smart][Smart]Maybe it will be the great chance for these stocks!

Tiger_James Ooi

01-27

AI Stocks Drop Premarket Amid DeepSeek Hype: Why Investors Shouldn’t Overreact?

What is DeepSeek?DeepSeek is an open-source AI model developed by a Chinese AI startup.It reportedly outperforms industry-leading models, such as OpenAI’s GPT-4, on several key benchmarks at a significantly lower cost. DeepSeek claims to have spent only $5.6 million to develop its model.However, Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang mentioned that DeepSeek has access to around 50,000 NVIDIA H100 AI GPUs (each costing $27,000 to $40,000 per unit).Due to export restrictions, DeepSeek has avoided discussing its use of these GPUs, suggesting that their true costs may be understated. The Impact of DeepSeek’s SuccessCost Efficiency Concerns:If a Chinese startup can develop an LLM (large language model) as good as OpenAI or Meta’s models with significantly fewer AI chips (lesser cost), why should compa

AI Stocks Drop Premarket Amid DeepSeek Hype: Why Investors Shouldn’t Overreact?

Ryan_Z0528

01-27

Market Preview from Deepseek: Big Tech Earnings & FED's Meeting in Focus

Nasdaq 100 Index Futures Extend Losses to 3%, DEEPSEEK Sparks Concerns Over U.S. Tech DominancePre-Market Plunge in Semiconductor Stocks: $ARM Holdings(ARM)$ : -7.3% $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ : -7% $Broadcom(AVGO)$ : -6.9% $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ : -6.4% $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ : -6.9% $Micron Technology(MU)$ : -5.73% $Qualcomm(QCOM)$ : -4.75% $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ : -5.44% $Intel(INTC)$ : -

Market Preview from Deepseek: Big Tech Earnings & FED's Meeting in Focus

Purplet72

01-27

There's a Kimi AI that can only access via wechat. This one is also another killer.

fujerry

01-27

We truly want to see 2 way movements to confirm the next trend in the AI driven economic growth. Today's move is welcome

TechnicalHunter

01-27

US markets going to erase over $1 trillion of market cap in Monday

Chip Stocks Overnight Reaction to DeepSeek: 1. Arm, $ARM Holdings(ARM)$ : -5.5% 2. Nvidia, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ : -5.3% 3. Broadcom, $Broadcom(AVGO)$ : -4.9% 4. Super Micro, $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ : -4.6% 5. Taiwan Semi, $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ : -4.5% 6. Micron, $Micron Technology(MU)$ : -4.3% 7. Qualcomm, $Qualcomm(QCOM)$ : -2.8% 8. AMD, $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ : -2.5% 9. Intel, $Intel(INT

US markets going to erase over $1 trillion of market cap in Monday

Pinkspider

01-27

My raw thoughts on @deepseek_ai and its impact Enter DeepSeek AI, claiming to be the David to the Goliath of Western AI giants. They say they're cheaper, better, and not bound by the same hardware shackles. If true, this isn't just a game-changer; it's a game-ender for those who thought AI was an exclusive club requiring a Silicon Valley membership. If DeepSeek's using something like the H100 under the radar, it's not just about technology; it's about who can bend or break the rules. China's already stacked enough chips to keep playing, and when they crack their own tech, the West might just be playing catch-up. DeepSeek could be the catalyst for commoditizing AI, making it as ubiquitous as electricity, where the cost per query becomes a penny, not a fortune. But there is more to this stor

Pinkspider

01-27

Number of H100 chips bought in 2024: - $MSFT: 450,000 - $META: 350,000 - $AMZN: 196,000 - $GOOG: 169,000 If you believe they couldn’t find the way to make better AI without more chips but a few Chinese engineers did it as a side project, you are too naive. Deepseek was reportedly trained on over 200,000 H100s. Even if Deepseek achieved to match OpenAI with less chips, this isn’t any bearish for chip makers, to the contrary, it is amazingly bullish. If Deepseek really reached this level with just a few thousand chips, can you imagine what could be done with a million chips? Deepseek news, true or false, are amazingly bullish for chip makers, especially for $NVDA.

Hen Solo

01-27

Very deep BC! A great write up. Yet another application not available in New Zealand???//@Barcode: 🤔💭🧐 The AI landscape is undergoing a rapid and unprecedented evolution, characterised by a real-time redefinition of foundational paradigms. DeepSeek’s achievement serves as a compelling testament to the catalytic role of ingenuity under constraint, underscoring the diminishing primacy of brute resource expenditure in favour of strategic optimisation. For incumbent industry leaders, the imperative has shifted from a binary question of adaptation to the critical urgency of its velocity. As the accessibility of advanced AI proliferates, the potential benefits for end-users expand dramatically. However, the trajectory of this transformation

Will Chinese DeepSeek Disrupt Nvidia?

Pinkspider

01-27

The idea that a futures gap down is driven by a Deepseek LLM and China potentially building cheaper, more efficient GPU processing is wild. Feels more like market makers playing games to shake things up in a bull market. Bull runs always face obstacles, but the show goes on. In the short term, narratives often move markets more than fundamentals. The tech evolution remains intact.

KYHBKO

01-26

My Investing Muse (27Jan2025) - layoffs, DeepSeek, Interest Rate

My Investing Muse (27Jan2025) Layoffs & Closure news Image Amazon is shutting its operations in Quebec, with 1,800 losing their jobs The list of major companies laying off staff in the new year, including Meta, Microsoft, BlackRock, and BP - Business Insider Biogen research team hit by layoffs as company shifts resources to external opportunities - Fierce Biotech Stripe laid off 300 people on Monday, mostly product, engineering, and operations workers. - Business Insider This week on Nation's Restaurant News the top story was Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol foreshadows possible layoffs. (Not finalized) - NRN CNN plans to lay off hundreds of employees, cut costs; NBC plots firings - NY Post The above are some snippets of news about layoffs, and closures in the past week. China’s AI

My Investing Muse (27Jan2025) - layoffs, DeepSeek, Interest Rate

ECA

01-26

Dude. What are you talking about man. NVDA and DeepSeek are not competitors and produce different products and services. DeepSeek threatens the LLMs produced by other hyper scalers like Google Gemini, OpenAi, Llama, etc. If anything you admitted that it actually runs on NVDA chips, and so it needs NVDA. DeepSeek actually strengthen's NVDA's dominance.

Will Chinese DeepSeek Disrupt Nvidia?

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The next crash leg is almost ready. $The Magnificent Seven ETF(MAGS)$ Image2.WILD TWO DAYS: (1) in the next 48 hours, your nerve will be tested--as four of Mag-7 will report earnings, juxposted by Powell's presser & FOMC. (2) Make-or-break moment for the indexes as well, when DJI, NYA & SPX are all near ATHs. 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First as prerietory models, and later as open-source tamagochi devices connected to a destributed network","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":66,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":5,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/397512841310872","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":397239021625472,"gmtCreate":1738007291525,"gmtModify":1738007295230,"author":{"id":"4111796805454312","authorId":"4111796805454312","name":"Brother272005","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/98eb4eb68d1bd2120f5c4a6cc2f9156e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111796805454312","authorIdStr":"4111796805454312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"China always like to copy usa product, this time might not be surprise if they have improve the chip.&nbsp;","listText":"China always like to copy usa product, this time might not be surprise if they have improve the chip.&nbsp;","text":"China always like to copy usa product, this time might not be surprise if they have improve the chip.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/397239021625472","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":89,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":397125251224056,"gmtCreate":1737994251638,"gmtModify":1738028402234,"author":{"id":"4171900329979952","authorId":"4171900329979952","name":"Barcode","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6688d8fb4c2a255e3b901e79755e56df","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4171900329979952","authorIdStr":"4171900329979952"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA(NVDA)$</a> 🚨📰🗞️ DeepSeek has restricted registration to its services, ONLY allowing users who have a mainland China mobile phone number to register.&nbsp; The website stated the status as \"Monitoring\" with the restriction message posted. Why service has been restricted? Nvidia, $NVDA, has now erased -$510 BILLION of market cap during today's session. ~$30 billion more and it doubles the previous record for most market cap lost in a day by a single stock. Source: The Kobeissi Letter&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA(NVDA)$</a> 🚨📰🗞️ DeepSeek has restricted registration to its services, ONLY allowing users who have a mainland China mobile phone number to register.&nbsp; The website stated the status as \"Monitoring\" with the restriction message posted. Why service has been restricted? Nvidia, $NVDA, has now erased -$510 BILLION of market cap during today's session. ~$30 billion more and it doubles the previous record for most market cap lost in a day by a single stock. Source: The Kobeissi Letter&nbsp;","text":"$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 🚨📰🗞️ DeepSeek has restricted registration to its services, ONLY allowing users who have a mainland China mobile phone number to register. The website stated the status as \"Monitoring\" with the restriction message posted. Why service has been restricted? Nvidia, $NVDA, has now erased -$510 BILLION of market cap during today's session. ~$30 billion more and it doubles the previous record for most market cap lost in a day by a single stock. Source: The Kobeissi Letter","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ad4df1264380289ed85af2cec1e03b91","width":"1284","height":"685"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac7e2490e2f85a751b354385d779d3ab","width":"1152","height":"642"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c0fe10541a3d8dd3034be2179c84d723","width":"1152","height":"2124"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":187,"commentSize":94,"repostSize":2797,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/397125251224056","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":58033,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4172293714339752","authorId":"4172293714339752","name":"Kiwi Tigress","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/44439795b309a195e7cd7613ce58f08f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4172293714339752","authorIdStr":"4172293714339752"},"content":"They can't compete with $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ buy the dip fo sure! 💚","text":"They can't compete with $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ buy the dip fo sure! 💚","html":"They can't compete with $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ buy the dip fo sure! 💚"}],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":397162978357624,"gmtCreate":1737988600368,"gmtModify":1737988604700,"author":{"id":"10000000000010987","authorId":"10000000000010987","name":"Thomas Flynn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30bbd0a59a8d7d57f742e98ccfab8e33","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"10000000000010987","authorIdStr":"10000000000010987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA(NVDA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>DeepSeek proves that NVDA chips are no longer the only way to create compelling AI and that cheaper chips could be used in replacement. This realization sends NVDA stock into correction mode which who knows when would stop. Below 100? Below 75? Below 50? don't know [LOL][LOL][LOL]","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA(NVDA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>DeepSeek proves that NVDA chips are no longer the only way to create compelling AI and that cheaper chips could be used in replacement. This realization sends NVDA stock into correction mode which who knows when would stop. Below 100? Below 75? Below 50? don't know [LOL][LOL][LOL]","text":"$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ DeepSeek proves that NVDA chips are no longer the only way to create compelling AI and that cheaper chips could be used in replacement. This realization sends NVDA stock into correction mode which who knows when would stop. Below 100? Below 75? Below 50? don't know [LOL][LOL][LOL]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":16,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/397162978357624","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1707,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4110131154550432","authorId":"4110131154550432","name":"大树大","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4110131154550432","authorIdStr":"4110131154550432"},"content":"Cheaper chips could be used? ds uses n cards like","text":"Cheaper chips could be used? ds uses n cards like","html":"Cheaper chips could be used? ds uses n cards like"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":397159610908848,"gmtCreate":1737987711718,"gmtModify":1737987718289,"author":{"id":"10000000000010986","authorId":"10000000000010986","name":"Abbott Cook(e)","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1fca2cb85ad90a226456299b6930c86","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"10000000000010986","authorIdStr":"10000000000010986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Deepseek AI is beating chatgpt, becoming the top-rated free app on Apple's App Store. [Sly][Sly][Sly]See this is why AAPL never got into AI. [LOL][LOL][LOL]What’s more, Lucky for Apple they didn’t spend any $ on hardware from <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA(NVDA)$</a> . All home grown software based [Tongue][Tongue][Tongue]","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Deepseek AI is beating chatgpt, becoming the top-rated free app on Apple's App Store. [Sly][Sly][Sly]See this is why AAPL never got into AI. [LOL][LOL][LOL]What’s more, Lucky for Apple they didn’t spend any $ on hardware from <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA(NVDA)$</a> . All home grown software based [Tongue][Tongue][Tongue]","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ Deepseek AI is beating chatgpt, becoming the top-rated free app on Apple's App Store. [Sly][Sly][Sly]See this is why AAPL never got into AI. [LOL][LOL][LOL]What’s more, Lucky for Apple they didn’t spend any $ on hardware from $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ . All home grown software based [Tongue][Tongue][Tongue]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/875d241989f25fe1dc597eadf8baf49a","width":"680","height":"680"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/397159610908848","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3560307510640662","authorId":"3560307510640662","name":"Louis K Jia Heng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05bb06bcca1cb9cd5016f4c8230c2803","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3560307510640662","authorIdStr":"3560307510640662"},"content":"Please don’t hearsay, test and you understand more.","text":"Please don’t hearsay, test and you understand more.","html":"Please don’t hearsay, test and you understand more."}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":397140207251632,"gmtCreate":1737982974497,"gmtModify":1737983088704,"author":{"id":"10000000000010986","authorId":"10000000000010986","name":"Abbott Cook(e)","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1fca2cb85ad90a226456299b6930c86","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"10000000000010986","authorIdStr":"10000000000010986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MSFT\">$Microsoft(MSFT)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>DeepSeek found a OpenAI solution which can run on a low horse power and no one else in the US companies could even think off. There is something which is not connecting the dots. No way this should bring down the whole tech market. This is a super over reaction. IMO a huge buying opportunity today. With one statement from either a tech giant will clarify the situation and it will reverse. Good luck all. [Happy][Happy][Happy]","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MSFT\">$Microsoft(MSFT)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>DeepSeek found a OpenAI solution which can run on a low horse power and no one else in the US companies could even think off. There is something which is not connecting the dots. No way this should bring down the whole tech market. This is a super over reaction. IMO a huge buying opportunity today. With one statement from either a tech giant will clarify the situation and it will reverse. Good luck all. [Happy][Happy][Happy]","text":"$Microsoft(MSFT)$ DeepSeek found a OpenAI solution which can run on a low horse power and no one else in the US companies could even think off. There is something which is not connecting the dots. No way this should bring down the whole tech market. This is a super over reaction. IMO a huge buying opportunity today. With one statement from either a tech giant will clarify the situation and it will reverse. Good luck all. [Happy][Happy][Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/397140207251632","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":876,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":397134020948344,"gmtCreate":1737981530688,"gmtModify":1737981535606,"author":{"id":"10000000000010985","authorId":"10000000000010985","name":"Marico Samuel","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df4fa8f4a07de7855d1ef44804bdd5a9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"10000000000010985","authorIdStr":"10000000000010985"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a> Does anyone actually think the top dogs of AI are going to sit back without a rebuttal on the Deepseek claim? Musk, Bezos, JensenKarp, Zuckerberg they will eat this claim alive by noon.Enjoy the dip [Smart][Smart][Smart]Maybe it will be the great chance for these stocks!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a> Does anyone actually think the top dogs of AI are going to sit back without a rebuttal on the Deepseek claim? Musk, Bezos, JensenKarp, Zuckerberg they will eat this claim alive by noon.Enjoy the dip [Smart][Smart][Smart]Maybe it will be the great chance for these stocks!","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Does anyone actually think the top dogs of AI are going to sit back without a rebuttal on the Deepseek claim? Musk, Bezos, JensenKarp, Zuckerberg they will eat this claim alive by noon.Enjoy the dip [Smart][Smart][Smart]Maybe it will be the great chance for these stocks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/397134020948344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":736,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":397123854041736,"gmtCreate":1737979001607,"gmtModify":1737981419235,"author":{"id":"4105176974307820","authorId":"4105176974307820","name":"Tiger_James Ooi","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7961414f4a4084256e762297d29aa077","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105176974307820","authorIdStr":"4105176974307820"},"themes":[],"title":"AI Stocks Drop Premarket Amid DeepSeek Hype: Why Investors Shouldn’t Overreact?","htmlText":"What is DeepSeek?DeepSeek is an open-source AI model developed by a Chinese AI startup.It reportedly outperforms industry-leading models, such as OpenAI’s GPT-4, on several key benchmarks at a significantly lower cost. DeepSeek claims to have spent only $5.6 million to develop its model.However, Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang mentioned that DeepSeek has access to around 50,000 NVIDIA H100 AI GPUs (each costing $27,000 to $40,000 per unit).Due to export restrictions, DeepSeek has avoided discussing its use of these GPUs, suggesting that their true costs may be understated.&nbsp;The Impact of DeepSeek’s SuccessCost Efficiency Concerns:If a Chinese startup can develop an LLM (large language model) as good as OpenAI or Meta’s models with significantly fewer AI chips (lesser cost), why should compa","listText":"What is DeepSeek?DeepSeek is an open-source AI model developed by a Chinese AI startup.It reportedly outperforms industry-leading models, such as OpenAI’s GPT-4, on several key benchmarks at a significantly lower cost. DeepSeek claims to have spent only $5.6 million to develop its model.However, Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang mentioned that DeepSeek has access to around 50,000 NVIDIA H100 AI GPUs (each costing $27,000 to $40,000 per unit).Due to export restrictions, DeepSeek has avoided discussing its use of these GPUs, suggesting that their true costs may be understated.&nbsp;The Impact of DeepSeek’s SuccessCost Efficiency Concerns:If a Chinese startup can develop an LLM (large language model) as good as OpenAI or Meta’s models with significantly fewer AI chips (lesser cost), why should compa","text":"What is DeepSeek?DeepSeek is an open-source AI model developed by a Chinese AI startup.It reportedly outperforms industry-leading models, such as OpenAI’s GPT-4, on several key benchmarks at a significantly lower cost. DeepSeek claims to have spent only $5.6 million to develop its model.However, Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang mentioned that DeepSeek has access to around 50,000 NVIDIA H100 AI GPUs (each costing $27,000 to $40,000 per unit).Due to export restrictions, DeepSeek has avoided discussing its use of these GPUs, suggesting that their true costs may be understated. The Impact of DeepSeek’s SuccessCost Efficiency Concerns:If a Chinese startup can develop an LLM (large language model) as good as OpenAI or Meta’s models with significantly fewer AI chips (lesser cost), why should compa","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8a7bb50d46c09f3afd9c3943497d5ddc"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":61,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":30,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/397123854041736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":39469,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3586515468962759","authorId":"3586515468962759","name":"ShawnTan1978","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04f0102b6947598a9fd554679922a9f8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586515468962759","authorIdStr":"3586515468962759"},"content":"Nonsense . CCP is the way to go! I short 3000 nvidia stock on Friday. Laughing to the bank now!","text":"Nonsense . CCP is the way to go! I short 3000 nvidia stock on Friday. Laughing to the bank now!","html":"Nonsense . CCP is the way to go! I short 3000 nvidia stock on Friday. Laughing to the bank now!"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":397078662266944,"gmtCreate":1737968106353,"gmtModify":1737968211291,"author":{"id":"1436866998000","authorId":"1436866998000","name":"Ryan_Z0528","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d65c4b5c01f61efa0ccc7644f4f6b9b9","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"1436866998000","authorIdStr":"1436866998000"},"themes":[],"title":"Market Preview from Deepseek: Big Tech Earnings & FED's Meeting in Focus","htmlText":"Nasdaq 100 Index Futures Extend Losses to 3%, DEEPSEEK Sparks Concerns Over U.S. Tech DominancePre-Market Plunge in Semiconductor Stocks: <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ARM\">$ARM Holdings(ARM)$</a> : -7.3% <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA(NVDA)$</a> : -7% <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AVGO\">$Broadcom(AVGO)$</a> : -6.9% <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMCI\">$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$</a> : -6.4% <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSM\">$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$</a> : -6.9% <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MU\">$Micron Technology(MU)$</a> : -5.73% <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QCOM\">$Qualcomm(QCOM)$</a> : -4.75% <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMD\">$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$</a> : -5.44% <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/INTC\">$Intel(INTC)$</a> : -","listText":"Nasdaq 100 Index Futures Extend Losses to 3%, DEEPSEEK Sparks Concerns Over U.S. Tech DominancePre-Market Plunge in Semiconductor Stocks: <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ARM\">$ARM Holdings(ARM)$</a> : -7.3% <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA(NVDA)$</a> : -7% <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AVGO\">$Broadcom(AVGO)$</a> : -6.9% <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMCI\">$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$</a> : -6.4% <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSM\">$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$</a> : -6.9% <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MU\">$Micron Technology(MU)$</a> : -5.73% <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QCOM\">$Qualcomm(QCOM)$</a> : -4.75% <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMD\">$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$</a> : -5.44% <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/INTC\">$Intel(INTC)$</a> : -","text":"Nasdaq 100 Index Futures Extend Losses to 3%, DEEPSEEK Sparks Concerns Over U.S. Tech DominancePre-Market Plunge in Semiconductor Stocks: $ARM Holdings(ARM)$ : -7.3% $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ : -7% $Broadcom(AVGO)$ : -6.9% $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ : -6.4% $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ : -6.9% $Micron Technology(MU)$ : -5.73% $Qualcomm(QCOM)$ : -4.75% $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ : -5.44% $Intel(INTC)$ : -","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f975755050f664d055ca8f63e07d8316","width":"1280","height":"720"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":70,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":5,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/397078662266944","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":397073624576568,"gmtCreate":1737967025109,"gmtModify":1737967154119,"author":{"id":"3576915603276232","authorId":"3576915603276232","name":"Purplet72","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4720e36448f6726fcffb35b2658218c2","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576915603276232","authorIdStr":"3576915603276232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"There's a Kimi AI that can only access via wechat. This one is also another killer.&nbsp;","listText":"There's a Kimi AI that can only access via wechat. This one is also another killer.&nbsp;","text":"There's a Kimi AI that can only access via wechat. This one is also another killer.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/397073624576568","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":397069058293920,"gmtCreate":1737965991909,"gmtModify":1737966498673,"author":{"id":"4100221720016130","authorId":"4100221720016130","name":"fujerry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83023a353706e2b4c8e0ef1b296c6976","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100221720016130","authorIdStr":"4100221720016130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"We truly want to see 2 way movements to confirm the next trend in the AI driven economic growth.&nbsp; Today's move is welcome","listText":"We truly want to see 2 way movements to confirm the next trend in the AI driven economic growth.&nbsp; Today's move is welcome","text":"We truly want to see 2 way movements to confirm the next trend in the AI driven economic growth. Today's move is welcome","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/397069058293920","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":19,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":397065628278848,"gmtCreate":1737964924227,"gmtModify":1737965406592,"author":{"id":"3448793367875557","authorId":"3448793367875557","name":"TechnicalHunter","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20616c062c392e47ee8fc9107f46437d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3448793367875557","authorIdStr":"3448793367875557"},"themes":[],"title":"US markets going to erase over $1 trillion of market cap in Monday","htmlText":"Chip Stocks Overnight Reaction to DeepSeek: 1. Arm, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ARM\">$ARM Holdings(ARM)$</a> : -5.5% 2. Nvidia, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA(NVDA)$</a> : -5.3% 3. Broadcom, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AVGO\">$Broadcom(AVGO)$</a> : -4.9% 4. Super Micro, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMCI\">$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$</a> : -4.6% 5. Taiwan Semi, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSM\">$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$</a> : -4.5% 6. Micron, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MU\">$Micron Technology(MU)$</a> : -4.3% 7. Qualcomm, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QCOM\">$Qualcomm(QCOM)$</a> : -2.8% 8. AMD, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMD\">$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$</a> : -2.5% 9. Intel, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/INTC\">$Intel(INT</a>","listText":"Chip Stocks Overnight Reaction to DeepSeek: 1. Arm, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ARM\">$ARM Holdings(ARM)$</a> : -5.5% 2. Nvidia, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA(NVDA)$</a> : -5.3% 3. Broadcom, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AVGO\">$Broadcom(AVGO)$</a> : -4.9% 4. Super Micro, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMCI\">$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$</a> : -4.6% 5. Taiwan Semi, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSM\">$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$</a> : -4.5% 6. Micron, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MU\">$Micron Technology(MU)$</a> : -4.3% 7. Qualcomm, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QCOM\">$Qualcomm(QCOM)$</a> : -2.8% 8. AMD, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMD\">$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$</a> : -2.5% 9. Intel, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/INTC\">$Intel(INT</a>","text":"Chip Stocks Overnight Reaction to DeepSeek: 1. Arm, $ARM Holdings(ARM)$ : -5.5% 2. Nvidia, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ : -5.3% 3. Broadcom, $Broadcom(AVGO)$ : -4.9% 4. Super Micro, $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ : -4.6% 5. Taiwan Semi, $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ : -4.5% 6. Micron, $Micron Technology(MU)$ : -4.3% 7. Qualcomm, $Qualcomm(QCOM)$ : -2.8% 8. AMD, $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ : -2.5% 9. Intel, $Intel(INT","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/397065628278848","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":397027703459968,"gmtCreate":1737955700176,"gmtModify":1737956836140,"author":{"id":"3563842318594455","authorId":"3563842318594455","name":"Pinkspider","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2643891549304031c32c05b207f0f2b6","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563842318594455","authorIdStr":"3563842318594455"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"My raw thoughts on @deepseek_ai and its impact Enter DeepSeek AI, claiming to be the David to the Goliath of Western AI giants. They say they're cheaper, better, and not bound by the same hardware shackles. If true, this isn't just a game-changer; it's a game-ender for those who thought AI was an exclusive club requiring a Silicon Valley membership. If DeepSeek's using something like the H100 under the radar, it's not just about technology; it's about who can bend or break the rules. China's already stacked enough chips to keep playing, and when they crack their own tech, the West might just be playing catch-up. DeepSeek could be the catalyst for commoditizing AI, making it as ubiquitous as electricity, where the cost per query becomes a penny, not a fortune. But there is more to this stor","listText":"My raw thoughts on @deepseek_ai and its impact Enter DeepSeek AI, claiming to be the David to the Goliath of Western AI giants. They say they're cheaper, better, and not bound by the same hardware shackles. If true, this isn't just a game-changer; it's a game-ender for those who thought AI was an exclusive club requiring a Silicon Valley membership. If DeepSeek's using something like the H100 under the radar, it's not just about technology; it's about who can bend or break the rules. China's already stacked enough chips to keep playing, and when they crack their own tech, the West might just be playing catch-up. DeepSeek could be the catalyst for commoditizing AI, making it as ubiquitous as electricity, where the cost per query becomes a penny, not a fortune. But there is more to this stor","text":"My raw thoughts on @deepseek_ai and its impact Enter DeepSeek AI, claiming to be the David to the Goliath of Western AI giants. They say they're cheaper, better, and not bound by the same hardware shackles. If true, this isn't just a game-changer; it's a game-ender for those who thought AI was an exclusive club requiring a Silicon Valley membership. If DeepSeek's using something like the H100 under the radar, it's not just about technology; it's about who can bend or break the rules. China's already stacked enough chips to keep playing, and when they crack their own tech, the West might just be playing catch-up. DeepSeek could be the catalyst for commoditizing AI, making it as ubiquitous as electricity, where the cost per query becomes a penny, not a fortune. But there is more to this stor","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/397027703459968","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2812,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4185249037082782","authorId":"4185249037082782","name":"Queengirlypops","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ad05acb3d3297a3680627eb89cafdbc8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4185249037082782","authorIdStr":"4185249037082782"},"content":"Bruh, is your trading strategy ‘Ctrl+C, Ctrl+V’. Snagging other people’s work from X like it’s a full-time gig. For real, chill with the copy-paste hustle. Watchin ya! 👀👀👀","text":"Bruh, is your trading strategy ‘Ctrl+C, Ctrl+V’. Snagging other people’s work from X like it’s a full-time gig. For real, chill with the copy-paste hustle. Watchin ya! 👀👀👀","html":"Bruh, is your trading strategy ‘Ctrl+C, Ctrl+V’. Snagging other people’s work from X like it’s a full-time gig. For real, chill with the copy-paste hustle. Watchin ya! 👀👀👀"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":397020206293632,"gmtCreate":1737954175145,"gmtModify":1737956945905,"author":{"id":"3563842318594455","authorId":"3563842318594455","name":"Pinkspider","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2643891549304031c32c05b207f0f2b6","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563842318594455","authorIdStr":"3563842318594455"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Number of H100 chips bought in 2024: - $MSFT: 450,000 - $META: 350,000 - $AMZN: 196,000 - $GOOG: 169,000 If you believe they couldn’t find the way to make better AI without more chips but a few Chinese engineers did it as a side project, you are too naive. Deepseek was reportedly trained on over 200,000 H100s. Even if Deepseek achieved to match OpenAI with less chips, this isn’t any bearish for chip makers, to the contrary, it is amazingly bullish. If Deepseek really reached this level with just a few thousand chips, can you imagine what could be done with a million chips? Deepseek news, true or false, are amazingly bullish for chip makers, especially for $NVDA.","listText":"Number of H100 chips bought in 2024: - $MSFT: 450,000 - $META: 350,000 - $AMZN: 196,000 - $GOOG: 169,000 If you believe they couldn’t find the way to make better AI without more chips but a few Chinese engineers did it as a side project, you are too naive. Deepseek was reportedly trained on over 200,000 H100s. Even if Deepseek achieved to match OpenAI with less chips, this isn’t any bearish for chip makers, to the contrary, it is amazingly bullish. If Deepseek really reached this level with just a few thousand chips, can you imagine what could be done with a million chips? Deepseek news, true or false, are amazingly bullish for chip makers, especially for $NVDA.","text":"Number of H100 chips bought in 2024: - $MSFT: 450,000 - $META: 350,000 - $AMZN: 196,000 - $GOOG: 169,000 If you believe they couldn’t find the way to make better AI without more chips but a few Chinese engineers did it as a side project, you are too naive. Deepseek was reportedly trained on over 200,000 H100s. Even if Deepseek achieved to match OpenAI with less chips, this isn’t any bearish for chip makers, to the contrary, it is amazingly bullish. If Deepseek really reached this level with just a few thousand chips, can you imagine what could be done with a million chips? Deepseek news, true or false, are amazingly bullish for chip makers, especially for $NVDA.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":82,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/397020206293632","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":396978985505160,"gmtCreate":1737943916570,"gmtModify":1737953037166,"author":{"id":"4172287591330932","authorId":"4172287591330932","name":"Hen Solo","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e8f9d57b757c07c87986ef8a0be25085","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4172287591330932","authorIdStr":"4172287591330932"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Very deep BC! A great write up. Yet another application not available in New Zealand???//<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4171900329979952\">@Barcode</a>: 🤔💭🧐 The AI landscape is undergoing a rapid and unprecedented evolution, characterised by a real-time redefinition of foundational paradigms. DeepSeek’s achievement serves as a compelling testament to the catalytic role of ingenuity under constraint, underscoring the diminishing primacy of brute resource expenditure in favour of strategic optimisation. For incumbent industry leaders, the imperative has shifted from a binary question of adaptation to the critical urgency of its velocity. As the accessibility of advanced AI proliferates, the potential benefits for end-users expand dramatically. However, the trajectory of this transformation","listText":"Very deep BC! A great write up. Yet another application not available in New Zealand???//<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4171900329979952\">@Barcode</a>: 🤔💭🧐 The AI landscape is undergoing a rapid and unprecedented evolution, characterised by a real-time redefinition of foundational paradigms. DeepSeek’s achievement serves as a compelling testament to the catalytic role of ingenuity under constraint, underscoring the diminishing primacy of brute resource expenditure in favour of strategic optimisation. For incumbent industry leaders, the imperative has shifted from a binary question of adaptation to the critical urgency of its velocity. As the accessibility of advanced AI proliferates, the potential benefits for end-users expand dramatically. However, the trajectory of this transformation","text":"Very deep BC! A great write up. Yet another application not available in New Zealand???//@Barcode: 🤔💭🧐 The AI landscape is undergoing a rapid and unprecedented evolution, characterised by a real-time redefinition of foundational paradigms. DeepSeek’s achievement serves as a compelling testament to the catalytic role of ingenuity under constraint, underscoring the diminishing primacy of brute resource expenditure in favour of strategic optimisation. For incumbent industry leaders, the imperative has shifted from a binary question of adaptation to the critical urgency of its velocity. As the accessibility of advanced AI proliferates, the potential benefits for end-users expand dramatically. However, the trajectory of this transformation","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/396978985505160","repostId":"1153606736","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1153606736","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1737864000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153606736?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-01-26 12:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will Chinese DeepSeek Disrupt Nvidia?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153606736","media":"Forexlive","summary":"The stock price of NVDA stock is probably the best guide to this answer.","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_2139294474\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Will Chinese DeepSeek Disrupt NVIDIA and the American AI Industry?</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The global AI race has taken an intriguing turn with the emergence of China&#39;s DeepSeek, touted by some as a potential disruptor to NVIDIA&#39;s dominance in the AI hardware space. As speculation swirls, stock investors, analysts, and thought leaders are left grappling with the critical question: Is DeepSeek a genuine threat to NVIDIA and the broader American AI industry, or is this a case of overhyped news amplified by interested parties?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The news that DeepSeek&#39;s model surpassed OpenAI&#39;s o1 in specific reasoning tests has sparked intense debate within the AI community. This development has significant implications for the AI market, potentially impacting the stock prices of companies like NVIDIA and other AI-related companies.</p><p>I’ll preface this by saying that I am not a renowned expert in deep technology or AI hardware. I don’t claim to have a definitive answer. Instead, I propose a method to find the answer—not by theorizing endlessly but by observing how the stock market reacts. The stock market, with its collective wisdom and ability to process information, often acts as the closest thing we have to a truth detector.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Let’s explore the context, evaluate the key factors at play, and develop a logical framework to assess the significance of DeepSeek’s emergence.</p><h2 id=\"id_3124687145\" style=\"text-align: start;\">The Landscape: NVIDIA’s Moat vs. DeepSeek’s Promise</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">NVIDIA has long been the undisputed leader in AI hardware, leveraging its GPUs and CUDA software ecosystem to dominate the market. Its ecosystem is sticky—developers, hyperscalers, and enterprise clients are deeply entrenched in its platform, creating significant switching costs. This is not unlike Apple’s ecosystem, where loyal users and interconnected services create barriers to exit.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">DeepSeek, on the other hand, reportedly offers a more cost-efficient AI solution. The analogy some have drawn is that DeepSeek could be the “cheaper smartphone” to NVIDIA’s “iPhone.” In the smartphone industry, the availability of cheaper alternatives has undeniably shifted market share, particularly in emerging markets. But did this disrupt Apple’s stock price or its dominance among its loyal user base? Not significantly. The same could apply to NVIDIA, depending on whether DeepSeek can replicate NVIDIA’s ecosystem or merely compete on price and performance.</p><h2 id=\"id_2754502625\" style=\"text-align: start;\">The Role of Market Reactions: Finding the Answer in the Price</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Here’s where the stock market comes in. Instead of relying solely on speculative opinions, <strong>I suggest that the best way to gauge the impact of DeepSeek is to observe NVIDIA’s stock price</strong>. The stock market is often a better truth-teller than any single analysis. It reflects collective sentiment, informed by analysts, insiders, and countless external factors.</p><h3 id=\"id_716272745\" style=\"text-align: start;\">What to Watch:</h3><ol start=\"1\" style=\"list-style-type: decimal;\"><li><p><strong>The Reaction to the News</strong><br/>Since the DeepSeek news broke, NVIDIA’s stock has not shown any drastic reaction. It actually rose apx 2.5% after the news came out, if we look at NVDA stock price from the next day it traded, to the close of the week. <strong>This lack of significant movement, not to mention lack of stock price decline (crash...?) -- suggests that the market does not yet see DeepSeek as a significant disruptor</strong>. If it were, we would expect a sharp and sustained price decline. Who remembers other cases, such as Facebook’s Cambridge Analytica scandal a few years ago and the immediate FB stock decline?</p></li><li><p><strong>Earnings as a Catalyst</strong><br/>NVIDIA’s upcoming earnings report will be pivotal. Pay close attention to management’s commentary, particularly regarding competitive risks in the AI space. If DeepSeek is a genuine threat, it could show up in NVIDIA’s guidance or performance, especially in its data center segment. <strong>I propose observing NVIDIA’s stock price from the time the news broke until two weeks after earnings</strong>. This period should provide enough data to assess whether DeepSeek is having a tangible impact, even if will not be talked about. <strong>The price knows, and it almost always knows better than you, or anyone else</strong>.</p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_2278388754\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Interpreting the Price Action Post Upcoming Nvidia Earnings (Scheduled for 26 Feb 2025): What It Might Tell Us</h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b0a9b5f3ee48430da66d764f7f07053f\" title=\"NVDA stock price is your best guide to the &#34;truth&#34;\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"1634\"/><span>NVDA stock price is your best guide to the &#34;truth&#34;</span></p><h3 id=\"id_1345298125\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Scenario 1 for the Upcoming Nvidia Earnings Report: Stock Rises or Remains Stable</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\">If NVIDIA’s stock rises or stays within its current range, the market is likely signaling that DeepSeek is not a major disruptor. Perhaps NVIDIA’s ecosystem is too entrenched, or DeepSeek’s solution doesn’t offer enough differentiation. It’s also possible that other factors, such as AI demand growth or NVIDIA’s new Blackwell chips, outweigh any competitive threats.</p><h3 id=\"id_1542877096\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Scenario 2 for the Upcoming Nvidia Earnings Report: Stock Declines</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\">If NVIDIA’s stock declines, the reasons warrant closer examination. Is the drop due to bottlenecks in Blackwell chip deliveries, macroeconomic pressures, or broader market trends? Or does it reflect legitimate concerns about DeepSeek? Analysts will need to scrutinize earnings commentary, data center revenue trends, and any shifts in market share. It’s critical to avoid jumping to conclusions without understanding the underlying reasons for the decline.</p><h2 id=\"id_3331170201\" style=\"text-align: start;\">The Unknowns: Factors and Their Weights</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">One of the challenges in analyzing stock movements is that <strong>we can never know all the factors affecting a stock price, nor the relative weights of those factors</strong>. We might think we know, we may hear great explanations, but we don&#39;t exacly know. Earnings reports often illustrate this: a company might beat revenue and EPS estimates, yet the stock declines. Analysts scramble to explain why—was it slower sales growth, weaker guidance, or some other reason? The reality is that the stock market processes countless variables simultaneously, and not all of them are visible to us. The granular variables and their weights will never be known to us. But price knows.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The same principle applies here. Even if NVIDIA’s stock remains stable, it’s possible that DeepSeek is a growing threat but not yet significant enough to outweigh other factors. Conversely, if the stock declines, DeepSeek may not be the primary cause. This complexity is why I emphasize looking at the stock price holistically and over time, rather than rushing to judgment based on short-term moves.</p><h2 id=\"id_3858120432\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Seeking the Deep Behind DeepSeek: Trust the Price, Not the News</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">DeepSeek’s potential to disrupt NVIDIA and the American AI industry is an open question, but the best way to find an answer is to let the stock market speak. Watch NVIDIA’s price action from the time the news broke until two weeks after its upcoming earnings. If the stock remains stable or rises, it’s likely that DeepSeek is not a significant threat. If it declines, dig deeper into the reasons—whether they’re related to DeepSeek or other factors.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While price action can act as a “truth detector,” it’s not infallible. The market may not immediately price in all information, and short-term movements can be influenced by noise, speculation, or interested parties (e.g., short sellers amplifying fears about DeepSeek). As always, exercise caution and remain open to multiple interpretations. <strong>But do follow the price more than anyone&#39;s opinion, especially yours</strong>.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Ultimately, the price knows. Follow the money. Follow the price and you shall be closer to finding the truth.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">So far, here is the most simple price chart of NVDA stock within the past 100 days. <strong>I don&#39;t see any panic yet from the &#34;truth machine&#34;, do you?</strong> You can decide for yourself is you see any DeepSeek news related panic. But let&#39;s wait till 2 weeks after the next earnings to unveal further &#34;truth&#34;.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c232155f0c94afcf4599dd5875452b7c\" title=\"NVDA trading range: $127-$152 (100 days). Weekly chart.\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"425\"/><span>NVDA trading range: $127-$152 (100 days). Weekly chart.</span></p><h2 id=\"id_1683244735\">Also Read: How small Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek shocked Silicon Valley</h2><p>Source: The Financial Times</p><p>A small Chinese artificial intelligence lab stunned the world this week by revealing the technical recipe for its cutting-edge model, turning its reclusive leader into a national hero who has defied US attempts to stop China’s high-tech ambitions. </p><p>DeepSeek, founded by hedge fund manager Liang Wenfeng, released its R1 model on Monday, explaining in a detailed paper how to build a large language model on a bootstrapped budget that can automatically learn and improve itself without human supervision.</p><p>US companies including OpenAI and Google DeepMind pioneered developments in reasoning models, a relatively new field of AI research that is attempting to make models match human cognitive capabilities. In December, the San Francisco-based OpenAI released the full version of its o1 model but kept its methods secret. </p><p>DeepSeek’s R1 release sparked a frenzied debate in Silicon Valley about whether better resourced US AI companies, including Meta and Anthropic, can defend their technical edge.</p><p>Meanwhile, Liang has become a focal point of national pride at home. This week, he was the only AI leader selected to attend a publicised meeting of entrepreneurs with the country’s second-most powerful leader, Li Qiang. The entrepreneurs were told to “concentrate efforts to break through key core technologies.”</p><p>In 2021, Liang started buying thousands of Nvidia graphic processing units for his AI side project while running his quant trading fund High-Flyer. Industry insiders viewed it as the eccentric actions of a billionaire looking for a new hobby.</p><p>“When we first met him, he was this very nerdy guy with a terrible hairstyle talking about building a 10,000-chip cluster to train his own models. We didn’t take him seriously,” said one of Liang’s business partners. </p><p>“He couldn’t articulate his vision other than saying: I want to build this, and it will be a game change. We thought this was only possible from giants like ByteDance and Alibaba,” the person added. </p><p>Liang’s status as an outsider in the AI field was an unexpected source of strength. At High-Flyer, he built a fortune by using AI and algorithms to identify patterns that could affect stock prices. His team became adept at using Nvidia chips to make money trading stocks. In 2023, he launched DeepSeek, announcing his intention to develop human-level AI.</p><p>“Liang built an exceptional infrastructure team that really understands how the chips worked,” said one founder at a rival LLM company. “He took his best people with him from the hedge fund to DeepSeek.”</p><p>After Washington banned Nvidia from exporting its most powerful chips to China, local AI companies have been forced to find innovative ways to maximise the computing power of a limited number of onshore chips — a problem Liang’s team already knew how to solve.</p><p>“DeepSeek’s engineers know how to unlock the potential of these GPUs, even if they are not state of the art,” said one AI researcher close to the company. </p><p>Industry insiders say DeepSeek’s singular focus on research makes it a dangerous competitor because it is willing to share its breakthroughs rather than protect them for commercial gains. DeepSeek has not raised money from outside funds or made significant moves to monetise its models.</p><p>“DeepSeek is run like the early days of DeepMind,” said one AI investor in Beijing. “It is purely focused on research and engineering.”</p><p>Liang, who is personally involved in DeepSeek’s research, uses proceeds from his hedge fund trading to pay top salaries for the best AI talent. Along with TikTok-owner ByteDance, DeepSeek is known for giving the highest remuneration available to AI engineers in China, with staff based in offices in Hangzhou and Beijing.</p><p>“DeepSeek’s offices feel like a university campus for serious researchers,” said the business partner. “The team believes in Liang’s vision: to show the world that the Chinese can be creative and build something from zero.”</p><p>DeepSeek and High-Flyer did not respond to a request for comment.</p><p>Liang has styled DeepSeek as a uniquely “local” company, staffed with PhDs from top Chinese schools, Peking, Tsinghua and Beihang universities rather than experts from US institutions.</p><p>In an interview with the domestic press last year, he said his core team “did not have people who returned from overseas. They are all local . . . We have to develop the top talent ourselves”. DeepSeek’s identity as a purely Chinese LLM company has won it plaudits at home. </p><p>DeepSeek claimed it used just 2,048 Nvidia H800s and $5.6mn to train a model with 671bn parameters, a fraction of what OpenAI and Google spent to train comparably sized models.</p><p>Ritwik Gupta, AI policy researcher at the University of California, Berkeley, said DeepSeek’s recent model releases demonstrate that “there is no moat when it comes to AI capabilities”.</p><p>“The first person to train models has to expend lots of resources to get there,” he said. “But the second mover can get there cheaper and more quickly.”</p><p>Gupta added that China had a much larger talent pool of systems engineers than the US who understand how to get the best use of computing resources to train and run models more cheaply.</p><p>Industry insiders say that even though DeepSeek has shown impressive results with limited resources, it remains an open question whether it can continue to be competitive as the industry evolves.</p><p>Returns at High-Flyer, its big backer, lagged behind in 2024, which one person close to Liang blamed on the founder’s attention being mostly focused on DeepSeek.</p><p>Its US rivals are not standing still. They are building mega “clusters” of Nvidia’s next-generation Blackwell chips, creating the computing power that threatens to once again create a performance gap with Chinese rivals.</p><p>This week, OpenAI said it was creating a joint venture with Japan’s SoftBank, dubbed Stargate, with plans to spend at least $100bn on AI infrastructure in the US. Elon Musk’s xAI is massively expanding its Colossus supercomputer to contain more than 1mn GPUs to help train its Grok AI models.</p><p>“DeepSeek has one of the largest advanced computing clusters in China,” said Liang’s business partner. “They have enough capacity for now, but not much longer.” </p></body></html>","source":"lsy1623168602413","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Chinese DeepSeek Disrupt Nvidia?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Chinese DeepSeek Disrupt Nvidia?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-01-26 12:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.forexlive.com/news/will-chinese-deepseek-disrupt-nvidia-20250125/><strong>Forexlive</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Will Chinese DeepSeek Disrupt NVIDIA and the American AI Industry?The global AI race has taken an intriguing turn with the emergence of China's DeepSeek, touted by some as a potential disruptor to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.forexlive.com/news/will-chinese-deepseek-disrupt-nvidia-20250125/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.forexlive.com/news/will-chinese-deepseek-disrupt-nvidia-20250125/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153606736","content_text":"Will Chinese DeepSeek Disrupt NVIDIA and the American AI Industry?The global AI race has taken an intriguing turn with the emergence of China's DeepSeek, touted by some as a potential disruptor to NVIDIA's dominance in the AI hardware space. As speculation swirls, stock investors, analysts, and thought leaders are left grappling with the critical question: Is DeepSeek a genuine threat to NVIDIA and the broader American AI industry, or is this a case of overhyped news amplified by interested parties?The news that DeepSeek's model surpassed OpenAI's o1 in specific reasoning tests has sparked intense debate within the AI community. This development has significant implications for the AI market, potentially impacting the stock prices of companies like NVIDIA and other AI-related companies.I’ll preface this by saying that I am not a renowned expert in deep technology or AI hardware. I don’t claim to have a definitive answer. Instead, I propose a method to find the answer—not by theorizing endlessly but by observing how the stock market reacts. The stock market, with its collective wisdom and ability to process information, often acts as the closest thing we have to a truth detector.Let’s explore the context, evaluate the key factors at play, and develop a logical framework to assess the significance of DeepSeek’s emergence.The Landscape: NVIDIA’s Moat vs. DeepSeek’s PromiseNVIDIA has long been the undisputed leader in AI hardware, leveraging its GPUs and CUDA software ecosystem to dominate the market. Its ecosystem is sticky—developers, hyperscalers, and enterprise clients are deeply entrenched in its platform, creating significant switching costs. This is not unlike Apple’s ecosystem, where loyal users and interconnected services create barriers to exit.DeepSeek, on the other hand, reportedly offers a more cost-efficient AI solution. The analogy some have drawn is that DeepSeek could be the “cheaper smartphone” to NVIDIA’s “iPhone.” In the smartphone industry, the availability of cheaper alternatives has undeniably shifted market share, particularly in emerging markets. But did this disrupt Apple’s stock price or its dominance among its loyal user base? Not significantly. The same could apply to NVIDIA, depending on whether DeepSeek can replicate NVIDIA’s ecosystem or merely compete on price and performance.The Role of Market Reactions: Finding the Answer in the PriceHere’s where the stock market comes in. Instead of relying solely on speculative opinions, I suggest that the best way to gauge the impact of DeepSeek is to observe NVIDIA’s stock price. The stock market is often a better truth-teller than any single analysis. It reflects collective sentiment, informed by analysts, insiders, and countless external factors.What to Watch:The Reaction to the NewsSince the DeepSeek news broke, NVIDIA’s stock has not shown any drastic reaction. It actually rose apx 2.5% after the news came out, if we look at NVDA stock price from the next day it traded, to the close of the week. This lack of significant movement, not to mention lack of stock price decline (crash...?) -- suggests that the market does not yet see DeepSeek as a significant disruptor. If it were, we would expect a sharp and sustained price decline. Who remembers other cases, such as Facebook’s Cambridge Analytica scandal a few years ago and the immediate FB stock decline?Earnings as a CatalystNVIDIA’s upcoming earnings report will be pivotal. Pay close attention to management’s commentary, particularly regarding competitive risks in the AI space. If DeepSeek is a genuine threat, it could show up in NVIDIA’s guidance or performance, especially in its data center segment. I propose observing NVIDIA’s stock price from the time the news broke until two weeks after earnings. This period should provide enough data to assess whether DeepSeek is having a tangible impact, even if will not be talked about. The price knows, and it almost always knows better than you, or anyone else.Interpreting the Price Action Post Upcoming Nvidia Earnings (Scheduled for 26 Feb 2025): What It Might Tell UsNVDA stock price is your best guide to the \"truth\"Scenario 1 for the Upcoming Nvidia Earnings Report: Stock Rises or Remains StableIf NVIDIA’s stock rises or stays within its current range, the market is likely signaling that DeepSeek is not a major disruptor. Perhaps NVIDIA’s ecosystem is too entrenched, or DeepSeek’s solution doesn’t offer enough differentiation. It’s also possible that other factors, such as AI demand growth or NVIDIA’s new Blackwell chips, outweigh any competitive threats.Scenario 2 for the Upcoming Nvidia Earnings Report: Stock DeclinesIf NVIDIA’s stock declines, the reasons warrant closer examination. Is the drop due to bottlenecks in Blackwell chip deliveries, macroeconomic pressures, or broader market trends? Or does it reflect legitimate concerns about DeepSeek? Analysts will need to scrutinize earnings commentary, data center revenue trends, and any shifts in market share. It’s critical to avoid jumping to conclusions without understanding the underlying reasons for the decline.The Unknowns: Factors and Their WeightsOne of the challenges in analyzing stock movements is that we can never know all the factors affecting a stock price, nor the relative weights of those factors. We might think we know, we may hear great explanations, but we don't exacly know. Earnings reports often illustrate this: a company might beat revenue and EPS estimates, yet the stock declines. Analysts scramble to explain why—was it slower sales growth, weaker guidance, or some other reason? The reality is that the stock market processes countless variables simultaneously, and not all of them are visible to us. The granular variables and their weights will never be known to us. But price knows.The same principle applies here. Even if NVIDIA’s stock remains stable, it’s possible that DeepSeek is a growing threat but not yet significant enough to outweigh other factors. Conversely, if the stock declines, DeepSeek may not be the primary cause. This complexity is why I emphasize looking at the stock price holistically and over time, rather than rushing to judgment based on short-term moves.Seeking the Deep Behind DeepSeek: Trust the Price, Not the NewsDeepSeek’s potential to disrupt NVIDIA and the American AI industry is an open question, but the best way to find an answer is to let the stock market speak. Watch NVIDIA’s price action from the time the news broke until two weeks after its upcoming earnings. If the stock remains stable or rises, it’s likely that DeepSeek is not a significant threat. If it declines, dig deeper into the reasons—whether they’re related to DeepSeek or other factors.While price action can act as a “truth detector,” it’s not infallible. The market may not immediately price in all information, and short-term movements can be influenced by noise, speculation, or interested parties (e.g., short sellers amplifying fears about DeepSeek). As always, exercise caution and remain open to multiple interpretations. But do follow the price more than anyone's opinion, especially yours.Ultimately, the price knows. Follow the money. Follow the price and you shall be closer to finding the truth.So far, here is the most simple price chart of NVDA stock within the past 100 days. I don't see any panic yet from the \"truth machine\", do you? You can decide for yourself is you see any DeepSeek news related panic. But let's wait till 2 weeks after the next earnings to unveal further \"truth\".NVDA trading range: $127-$152 (100 days). Weekly chart.Also Read: How small Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek shocked Silicon ValleySource: The Financial TimesA small Chinese artificial intelligence lab stunned the world this week by revealing the technical recipe for its cutting-edge model, turning its reclusive leader into a national hero who has defied US attempts to stop China’s high-tech ambitions. DeepSeek, founded by hedge fund manager Liang Wenfeng, released its R1 model on Monday, explaining in a detailed paper how to build a large language model on a bootstrapped budget that can automatically learn and improve itself without human supervision.US companies including OpenAI and Google DeepMind pioneered developments in reasoning models, a relatively new field of AI research that is attempting to make models match human cognitive capabilities. In December, the San Francisco-based OpenAI released the full version of its o1 model but kept its methods secret. DeepSeek’s R1 release sparked a frenzied debate in Silicon Valley about whether better resourced US AI companies, including Meta and Anthropic, can defend their technical edge.Meanwhile, Liang has become a focal point of national pride at home. This week, he was the only AI leader selected to attend a publicised meeting of entrepreneurs with the country’s second-most powerful leader, Li Qiang. The entrepreneurs were told to “concentrate efforts to break through key core technologies.”In 2021, Liang started buying thousands of Nvidia graphic processing units for his AI side project while running his quant trading fund High-Flyer. Industry insiders viewed it as the eccentric actions of a billionaire looking for a new hobby.“When we first met him, he was this very nerdy guy with a terrible hairstyle talking about building a 10,000-chip cluster to train his own models. We didn’t take him seriously,” said one of Liang’s business partners. “He couldn’t articulate his vision other than saying: I want to build this, and it will be a game change. We thought this was only possible from giants like ByteDance and Alibaba,” the person added. Liang’s status as an outsider in the AI field was an unexpected source of strength. At High-Flyer, he built a fortune by using AI and algorithms to identify patterns that could affect stock prices. His team became adept at using Nvidia chips to make money trading stocks. In 2023, he launched DeepSeek, announcing his intention to develop human-level AI.“Liang built an exceptional infrastructure team that really understands how the chips worked,” said one founder at a rival LLM company. “He took his best people with him from the hedge fund to DeepSeek.”After Washington banned Nvidia from exporting its most powerful chips to China, local AI companies have been forced to find innovative ways to maximise the computing power of a limited number of onshore chips — a problem Liang’s team already knew how to solve.“DeepSeek’s engineers know how to unlock the potential of these GPUs, even if they are not state of the art,” said one AI researcher close to the company. Industry insiders say DeepSeek’s singular focus on research makes it a dangerous competitor because it is willing to share its breakthroughs rather than protect them for commercial gains. DeepSeek has not raised money from outside funds or made significant moves to monetise its models.“DeepSeek is run like the early days of DeepMind,” said one AI investor in Beijing. “It is purely focused on research and engineering.”Liang, who is personally involved in DeepSeek’s research, uses proceeds from his hedge fund trading to pay top salaries for the best AI talent. Along with TikTok-owner ByteDance, DeepSeek is known for giving the highest remuneration available to AI engineers in China, with staff based in offices in Hangzhou and Beijing.“DeepSeek’s offices feel like a university campus for serious researchers,” said the business partner. “The team believes in Liang’s vision: to show the world that the Chinese can be creative and build something from zero.”DeepSeek and High-Flyer did not respond to a request for comment.Liang has styled DeepSeek as a uniquely “local” company, staffed with PhDs from top Chinese schools, Peking, Tsinghua and Beihang universities rather than experts from US institutions.In an interview with the domestic press last year, he said his core team “did not have people who returned from overseas. They are all local . . . We have to develop the top talent ourselves”. DeepSeek’s identity as a purely Chinese LLM company has won it plaudits at home. DeepSeek claimed it used just 2,048 Nvidia H800s and $5.6mn to train a model with 671bn parameters, a fraction of what OpenAI and Google spent to train comparably sized models.Ritwik Gupta, AI policy researcher at the University of California, Berkeley, said DeepSeek’s recent model releases demonstrate that “there is no moat when it comes to AI capabilities”.“The first person to train models has to expend lots of resources to get there,” he said. “But the second mover can get there cheaper and more quickly.”Gupta added that China had a much larger talent pool of systems engineers than the US who understand how to get the best use of computing resources to train and run models more cheaply.Industry insiders say that even though DeepSeek has shown impressive results with limited resources, it remains an open question whether it can continue to be competitive as the industry evolves.Returns at High-Flyer, its big backer, lagged behind in 2024, which one person close to Liang blamed on the founder’s attention being mostly focused on DeepSeek.Its US rivals are not standing still. They are building mega “clusters” of Nvidia’s next-generation Blackwell chips, creating the computing power that threatens to once again create a performance gap with Chinese rivals.This week, OpenAI said it was creating a joint venture with Japan’s SoftBank, dubbed Stargate, with plans to spend at least $100bn on AI infrastructure in the US. Elon Musk’s xAI is massively expanding its Colossus supercomputer to contain more than 1mn GPUs to help train its Grok AI models.“DeepSeek has one of the largest advanced computing clusters in China,” said Liang’s business partner. “They have enough capacity for now, but not much longer.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":191,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4171900329979952","authorId":"4171900329979952","name":"Barcode","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6688d8fb4c2a255e3b901e79755e56df","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4171900329979952","authorIdStr":"4171900329979952"},"content":"Thanks HS, I appreciate your support as always. Thanks for sharing 🍀🍀🍀","text":"Thanks HS, I appreciate your support as always. Thanks for sharing 🍀🍀🍀","html":"Thanks HS, I appreciate your support as always. Thanks for sharing 🍀🍀🍀"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":396966802854112,"gmtCreate":1737940858329,"gmtModify":1737950198549,"author":{"id":"3563842318594455","authorId":"3563842318594455","name":"Pinkspider","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2643891549304031c32c05b207f0f2b6","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563842318594455","authorIdStr":"3563842318594455"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The idea that a futures gap down is driven by a Deepseek LLM and China potentially building cheaper, more efficient GPU processing is wild. Feels more like market makers playing games to shake things up in a bull market. Bull runs always face obstacles, but the show goes on. In the short term, narratives often move markets more than fundamentals. The tech evolution remains intact.","listText":"The idea that a futures gap down is driven by a Deepseek LLM and China potentially building cheaper, more efficient GPU processing is wild. Feels more like market makers playing games to shake things up in a bull market. Bull runs always face obstacles, but the show goes on. In the short term, narratives often move markets more than fundamentals. The tech evolution remains intact.","text":"The idea that a futures gap down is driven by a Deepseek LLM and China potentially building cheaper, more efficient GPU processing is wild. Feels more like market makers playing games to shake things up in a bull market. Bull runs always face obstacles, but the show goes on. In the short term, narratives often move markets more than fundamentals. The tech evolution remains intact.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/396966802854112","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":587,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":396794039427512,"gmtCreate":1737898684765,"gmtModify":1737951239880,"author":{"id":"3574381076586256","authorId":"3574381076586256","name":"KYHBKO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3bcbc7f9a10836dea92afc94bf39b5b","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574381076586256","authorIdStr":"3574381076586256"},"themes":[],"title":"My Investing Muse (27Jan2025) - layoffs, DeepSeek, Interest Rate ","htmlText":"My Investing Muse (27Jan2025) Layoffs &amp; Closure news Image Amazon is shutting its operations in Quebec, with 1,800 losing their jobs The list of major companies laying off staff in the new year, including Meta, Microsoft, BlackRock, and BP - Business Insider Biogen research team hit by layoffs as company shifts resources to external opportunities - Fierce Biotech Stripe laid off 300 people on Monday, mostly product, engineering, and operations workers. - Business Insider This week on Nation's Restaurant News the top story was Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol foreshadows&nbsp;possible&nbsp;layoffs. (Not finalized) - NRN CNN plans to lay off hundreds of employees, cut costs; NBC plots firings - NY Post The above are some snippets of news about layoffs, and closures in the past week. China’s AI","listText":"My Investing Muse (27Jan2025) Layoffs &amp; Closure news Image Amazon is shutting its operations in Quebec, with 1,800 losing their jobs The list of major companies laying off staff in the new year, including Meta, Microsoft, BlackRock, and BP - Business Insider Biogen research team hit by layoffs as company shifts resources to external opportunities - Fierce Biotech Stripe laid off 300 people on Monday, mostly product, engineering, and operations workers. - Business Insider This week on Nation's Restaurant News the top story was Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol foreshadows&nbsp;possible&nbsp;layoffs. (Not finalized) - NRN CNN plans to lay off hundreds of employees, cut costs; NBC plots firings - NY Post The above are some snippets of news about layoffs, and closures in the past week. China’s AI","text":"My Investing Muse (27Jan2025) Layoffs & Closure news Image Amazon is shutting its operations in Quebec, with 1,800 losing their jobs The list of major companies laying off staff in the new year, including Meta, Microsoft, BlackRock, and BP - Business Insider Biogen research team hit by layoffs as company shifts resources to external opportunities - Fierce Biotech Stripe laid off 300 people on Monday, mostly product, engineering, and operations workers. - Business Insider This week on Nation's Restaurant News the top story was Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol foreshadows possible layoffs. (Not finalized) - NRN CNN plans to lay off hundreds of employees, cut costs; NBC plots firings - NY Post The above are some snippets of news about layoffs, and closures in the past week. China’s AI","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1c234b2f4ab8ebae8a670a30ab20975","width":"680","height":"557"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f9d5015a8e0e57305d751efeadf3cbc","width":"680","height":"563"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/58f174dc59768c708380d642954d1c7a","width":"680","height":"403"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":25,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/396794039427512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1761,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":396717456060992,"gmtCreate":1737879782759,"gmtModify":1737953550562,"author":{"id":"3583583162782511","authorId":"3583583162782511","name":"ECA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/718eae234a49daca134efd37f092acb0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583583162782511","authorIdStr":"3583583162782511"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dude. What are you talking about man. NVDA and DeepSeek are not competitors and produce different products and services. DeepSeek threatens the LLMs produced by other hyper scalers like Google Gemini, OpenAi, Llama, etc. If anything you admitted that it actually runs on NVDA chips, and so it needs NVDA. DeepSeek actually strengthen's NVDA's dominance.&nbsp;","listText":"Dude. What are you talking about man. NVDA and DeepSeek are not competitors and produce different products and services. DeepSeek threatens the LLMs produced by other hyper scalers like Google Gemini, OpenAi, Llama, etc. If anything you admitted that it actually runs on NVDA chips, and so it needs NVDA. DeepSeek actually strengthen's NVDA's dominance.&nbsp;","text":"Dude. What are you talking about man. NVDA and DeepSeek are not competitors and produce different products and services. DeepSeek threatens the LLMs produced by other hyper scalers like Google Gemini, OpenAi, Llama, etc. If anything you admitted that it actually runs on NVDA chips, and so it needs NVDA. DeepSeek actually strengthen's NVDA's dominance.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/396717456060992","repostId":"1153606736","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1153606736","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1737864000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153606736?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-01-26 12:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will Chinese DeepSeek Disrupt Nvidia?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153606736","media":"Forexlive","summary":"The stock price of NVDA stock is probably the best guide to this answer.","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_2139294474\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Will Chinese DeepSeek Disrupt NVIDIA and the American AI Industry?</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The global AI race has taken an intriguing turn with the emergence of China&#39;s DeepSeek, touted by some as a potential disruptor to NVIDIA&#39;s dominance in the AI hardware space. As speculation swirls, stock investors, analysts, and thought leaders are left grappling with the critical question: Is DeepSeek a genuine threat to NVIDIA and the broader American AI industry, or is this a case of overhyped news amplified by interested parties?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The news that DeepSeek&#39;s model surpassed OpenAI&#39;s o1 in specific reasoning tests has sparked intense debate within the AI community. This development has significant implications for the AI market, potentially impacting the stock prices of companies like NVIDIA and other AI-related companies.</p><p>I’ll preface this by saying that I am not a renowned expert in deep technology or AI hardware. I don’t claim to have a definitive answer. Instead, I propose a method to find the answer—not by theorizing endlessly but by observing how the stock market reacts. The stock market, with its collective wisdom and ability to process information, often acts as the closest thing we have to a truth detector.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Let’s explore the context, evaluate the key factors at play, and develop a logical framework to assess the significance of DeepSeek’s emergence.</p><h2 id=\"id_3124687145\" style=\"text-align: start;\">The Landscape: NVIDIA’s Moat vs. DeepSeek’s Promise</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">NVIDIA has long been the undisputed leader in AI hardware, leveraging its GPUs and CUDA software ecosystem to dominate the market. Its ecosystem is sticky—developers, hyperscalers, and enterprise clients are deeply entrenched in its platform, creating significant switching costs. This is not unlike Apple’s ecosystem, where loyal users and interconnected services create barriers to exit.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">DeepSeek, on the other hand, reportedly offers a more cost-efficient AI solution. The analogy some have drawn is that DeepSeek could be the “cheaper smartphone” to NVIDIA’s “iPhone.” In the smartphone industry, the availability of cheaper alternatives has undeniably shifted market share, particularly in emerging markets. But did this disrupt Apple’s stock price or its dominance among its loyal user base? Not significantly. The same could apply to NVIDIA, depending on whether DeepSeek can replicate NVIDIA’s ecosystem or merely compete on price and performance.</p><h2 id=\"id_2754502625\" style=\"text-align: start;\">The Role of Market Reactions: Finding the Answer in the Price</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Here’s where the stock market comes in. Instead of relying solely on speculative opinions, <strong>I suggest that the best way to gauge the impact of DeepSeek is to observe NVIDIA’s stock price</strong>. The stock market is often a better truth-teller than any single analysis. It reflects collective sentiment, informed by analysts, insiders, and countless external factors.</p><h3 id=\"id_716272745\" style=\"text-align: start;\">What to Watch:</h3><ol start=\"1\" style=\"list-style-type: decimal;\"><li><p><strong>The Reaction to the News</strong><br/>Since the DeepSeek news broke, NVIDIA’s stock has not shown any drastic reaction. It actually rose apx 2.5% after the news came out, if we look at NVDA stock price from the next day it traded, to the close of the week. <strong>This lack of significant movement, not to mention lack of stock price decline (crash...?) -- suggests that the market does not yet see DeepSeek as a significant disruptor</strong>. If it were, we would expect a sharp and sustained price decline. Who remembers other cases, such as Facebook’s Cambridge Analytica scandal a few years ago and the immediate FB stock decline?</p></li><li><p><strong>Earnings as a Catalyst</strong><br/>NVIDIA’s upcoming earnings report will be pivotal. Pay close attention to management’s commentary, particularly regarding competitive risks in the AI space. If DeepSeek is a genuine threat, it could show up in NVIDIA’s guidance or performance, especially in its data center segment. <strong>I propose observing NVIDIA’s stock price from the time the news broke until two weeks after earnings</strong>. This period should provide enough data to assess whether DeepSeek is having a tangible impact, even if will not be talked about. <strong>The price knows, and it almost always knows better than you, or anyone else</strong>.</p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_2278388754\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Interpreting the Price Action Post Upcoming Nvidia Earnings (Scheduled for 26 Feb 2025): What It Might Tell Us</h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b0a9b5f3ee48430da66d764f7f07053f\" title=\"NVDA stock price is your best guide to the &#34;truth&#34;\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"1634\"/><span>NVDA stock price is your best guide to the &#34;truth&#34;</span></p><h3 id=\"id_1345298125\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Scenario 1 for the Upcoming Nvidia Earnings Report: Stock Rises or Remains Stable</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\">If NVIDIA’s stock rises or stays within its current range, the market is likely signaling that DeepSeek is not a major disruptor. Perhaps NVIDIA’s ecosystem is too entrenched, or DeepSeek’s solution doesn’t offer enough differentiation. It’s also possible that other factors, such as AI demand growth or NVIDIA’s new Blackwell chips, outweigh any competitive threats.</p><h3 id=\"id_1542877096\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Scenario 2 for the Upcoming Nvidia Earnings Report: Stock Declines</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\">If NVIDIA’s stock declines, the reasons warrant closer examination. Is the drop due to bottlenecks in Blackwell chip deliveries, macroeconomic pressures, or broader market trends? Or does it reflect legitimate concerns about DeepSeek? Analysts will need to scrutinize earnings commentary, data center revenue trends, and any shifts in market share. It’s critical to avoid jumping to conclusions without understanding the underlying reasons for the decline.</p><h2 id=\"id_3331170201\" style=\"text-align: start;\">The Unknowns: Factors and Their Weights</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">One of the challenges in analyzing stock movements is that <strong>we can never know all the factors affecting a stock price, nor the relative weights of those factors</strong>. We might think we know, we may hear great explanations, but we don&#39;t exacly know. Earnings reports often illustrate this: a company might beat revenue and EPS estimates, yet the stock declines. Analysts scramble to explain why—was it slower sales growth, weaker guidance, or some other reason? The reality is that the stock market processes countless variables simultaneously, and not all of them are visible to us. The granular variables and their weights will never be known to us. But price knows.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The same principle applies here. Even if NVIDIA’s stock remains stable, it’s possible that DeepSeek is a growing threat but not yet significant enough to outweigh other factors. Conversely, if the stock declines, DeepSeek may not be the primary cause. This complexity is why I emphasize looking at the stock price holistically and over time, rather than rushing to judgment based on short-term moves.</p><h2 id=\"id_3858120432\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Seeking the Deep Behind DeepSeek: Trust the Price, Not the News</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">DeepSeek’s potential to disrupt NVIDIA and the American AI industry is an open question, but the best way to find an answer is to let the stock market speak. Watch NVIDIA’s price action from the time the news broke until two weeks after its upcoming earnings. If the stock remains stable or rises, it’s likely that DeepSeek is not a significant threat. If it declines, dig deeper into the reasons—whether they’re related to DeepSeek or other factors.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While price action can act as a “truth detector,” it’s not infallible. The market may not immediately price in all information, and short-term movements can be influenced by noise, speculation, or interested parties (e.g., short sellers amplifying fears about DeepSeek). As always, exercise caution and remain open to multiple interpretations. <strong>But do follow the price more than anyone&#39;s opinion, especially yours</strong>.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Ultimately, the price knows. Follow the money. Follow the price and you shall be closer to finding the truth.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">So far, here is the most simple price chart of NVDA stock within the past 100 days. <strong>I don&#39;t see any panic yet from the &#34;truth machine&#34;, do you?</strong> You can decide for yourself is you see any DeepSeek news related panic. But let&#39;s wait till 2 weeks after the next earnings to unveal further &#34;truth&#34;.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c232155f0c94afcf4599dd5875452b7c\" title=\"NVDA trading range: $127-$152 (100 days). Weekly chart.\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"425\"/><span>NVDA trading range: $127-$152 (100 days). Weekly chart.</span></p><h2 id=\"id_1683244735\">Also Read: How small Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek shocked Silicon Valley</h2><p>Source: The Financial Times</p><p>A small Chinese artificial intelligence lab stunned the world this week by revealing the technical recipe for its cutting-edge model, turning its reclusive leader into a national hero who has defied US attempts to stop China’s high-tech ambitions. </p><p>DeepSeek, founded by hedge fund manager Liang Wenfeng, released its R1 model on Monday, explaining in a detailed paper how to build a large language model on a bootstrapped budget that can automatically learn and improve itself without human supervision.</p><p>US companies including OpenAI and Google DeepMind pioneered developments in reasoning models, a relatively new field of AI research that is attempting to make models match human cognitive capabilities. In December, the San Francisco-based OpenAI released the full version of its o1 model but kept its methods secret. </p><p>DeepSeek’s R1 release sparked a frenzied debate in Silicon Valley about whether better resourced US AI companies, including Meta and Anthropic, can defend their technical edge.</p><p>Meanwhile, Liang has become a focal point of national pride at home. This week, he was the only AI leader selected to attend a publicised meeting of entrepreneurs with the country’s second-most powerful leader, Li Qiang. The entrepreneurs were told to “concentrate efforts to break through key core technologies.”</p><p>In 2021, Liang started buying thousands of Nvidia graphic processing units for his AI side project while running his quant trading fund High-Flyer. Industry insiders viewed it as the eccentric actions of a billionaire looking for a new hobby.</p><p>“When we first met him, he was this very nerdy guy with a terrible hairstyle talking about building a 10,000-chip cluster to train his own models. We didn’t take him seriously,” said one of Liang’s business partners. </p><p>“He couldn’t articulate his vision other than saying: I want to build this, and it will be a game change. We thought this was only possible from giants like ByteDance and Alibaba,” the person added. </p><p>Liang’s status as an outsider in the AI field was an unexpected source of strength. At High-Flyer, he built a fortune by using AI and algorithms to identify patterns that could affect stock prices. His team became adept at using Nvidia chips to make money trading stocks. In 2023, he launched DeepSeek, announcing his intention to develop human-level AI.</p><p>“Liang built an exceptional infrastructure team that really understands how the chips worked,” said one founder at a rival LLM company. “He took his best people with him from the hedge fund to DeepSeek.”</p><p>After Washington banned Nvidia from exporting its most powerful chips to China, local AI companies have been forced to find innovative ways to maximise the computing power of a limited number of onshore chips — a problem Liang’s team already knew how to solve.</p><p>“DeepSeek’s engineers know how to unlock the potential of these GPUs, even if they are not state of the art,” said one AI researcher close to the company. </p><p>Industry insiders say DeepSeek’s singular focus on research makes it a dangerous competitor because it is willing to share its breakthroughs rather than protect them for commercial gains. DeepSeek has not raised money from outside funds or made significant moves to monetise its models.</p><p>“DeepSeek is run like the early days of DeepMind,” said one AI investor in Beijing. “It is purely focused on research and engineering.”</p><p>Liang, who is personally involved in DeepSeek’s research, uses proceeds from his hedge fund trading to pay top salaries for the best AI talent. Along with TikTok-owner ByteDance, DeepSeek is known for giving the highest remuneration available to AI engineers in China, with staff based in offices in Hangzhou and Beijing.</p><p>“DeepSeek’s offices feel like a university campus for serious researchers,” said the business partner. “The team believes in Liang’s vision: to show the world that the Chinese can be creative and build something from zero.”</p><p>DeepSeek and High-Flyer did not respond to a request for comment.</p><p>Liang has styled DeepSeek as a uniquely “local” company, staffed with PhDs from top Chinese schools, Peking, Tsinghua and Beihang universities rather than experts from US institutions.</p><p>In an interview with the domestic press last year, he said his core team “did not have people who returned from overseas. They are all local . . . We have to develop the top talent ourselves”. DeepSeek’s identity as a purely Chinese LLM company has won it plaudits at home. </p><p>DeepSeek claimed it used just 2,048 Nvidia H800s and $5.6mn to train a model with 671bn parameters, a fraction of what OpenAI and Google spent to train comparably sized models.</p><p>Ritwik Gupta, AI policy researcher at the University of California, Berkeley, said DeepSeek’s recent model releases demonstrate that “there is no moat when it comes to AI capabilities”.</p><p>“The first person to train models has to expend lots of resources to get there,” he said. “But the second mover can get there cheaper and more quickly.”</p><p>Gupta added that China had a much larger talent pool of systems engineers than the US who understand how to get the best use of computing resources to train and run models more cheaply.</p><p>Industry insiders say that even though DeepSeek has shown impressive results with limited resources, it remains an open question whether it can continue to be competitive as the industry evolves.</p><p>Returns at High-Flyer, its big backer, lagged behind in 2024, which one person close to Liang blamed on the founder’s attention being mostly focused on DeepSeek.</p><p>Its US rivals are not standing still. They are building mega “clusters” of Nvidia’s next-generation Blackwell chips, creating the computing power that threatens to once again create a performance gap with Chinese rivals.</p><p>This week, OpenAI said it was creating a joint venture with Japan’s SoftBank, dubbed Stargate, with plans to spend at least $100bn on AI infrastructure in the US. Elon Musk’s xAI is massively expanding its Colossus supercomputer to contain more than 1mn GPUs to help train its Grok AI models.</p><p>“DeepSeek has one of the largest advanced computing clusters in China,” said Liang’s business partner. “They have enough capacity for now, but not much longer.” </p></body></html>","source":"lsy1623168602413","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Chinese DeepSeek Disrupt Nvidia?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Chinese DeepSeek Disrupt Nvidia?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-01-26 12:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.forexlive.com/news/will-chinese-deepseek-disrupt-nvidia-20250125/><strong>Forexlive</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Will Chinese DeepSeek Disrupt NVIDIA and the American AI Industry?The global AI race has taken an intriguing turn with the emergence of China's DeepSeek, touted by some as a potential disruptor to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.forexlive.com/news/will-chinese-deepseek-disrupt-nvidia-20250125/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.forexlive.com/news/will-chinese-deepseek-disrupt-nvidia-20250125/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153606736","content_text":"Will Chinese DeepSeek Disrupt NVIDIA and the American AI Industry?The global AI race has taken an intriguing turn with the emergence of China's DeepSeek, touted by some as a potential disruptor to NVIDIA's dominance in the AI hardware space. As speculation swirls, stock investors, analysts, and thought leaders are left grappling with the critical question: Is DeepSeek a genuine threat to NVIDIA and the broader American AI industry, or is this a case of overhyped news amplified by interested parties?The news that DeepSeek's model surpassed OpenAI's o1 in specific reasoning tests has sparked intense debate within the AI community. This development has significant implications for the AI market, potentially impacting the stock prices of companies like NVIDIA and other AI-related companies.I’ll preface this by saying that I am not a renowned expert in deep technology or AI hardware. I don’t claim to have a definitive answer. Instead, I propose a method to find the answer—not by theorizing endlessly but by observing how the stock market reacts. The stock market, with its collective wisdom and ability to process information, often acts as the closest thing we have to a truth detector.Let’s explore the context, evaluate the key factors at play, and develop a logical framework to assess the significance of DeepSeek’s emergence.The Landscape: NVIDIA’s Moat vs. DeepSeek’s PromiseNVIDIA has long been the undisputed leader in AI hardware, leveraging its GPUs and CUDA software ecosystem to dominate the market. Its ecosystem is sticky—developers, hyperscalers, and enterprise clients are deeply entrenched in its platform, creating significant switching costs. This is not unlike Apple’s ecosystem, where loyal users and interconnected services create barriers to exit.DeepSeek, on the other hand, reportedly offers a more cost-efficient AI solution. The analogy some have drawn is that DeepSeek could be the “cheaper smartphone” to NVIDIA’s “iPhone.” In the smartphone industry, the availability of cheaper alternatives has undeniably shifted market share, particularly in emerging markets. But did this disrupt Apple’s stock price or its dominance among its loyal user base? Not significantly. The same could apply to NVIDIA, depending on whether DeepSeek can replicate NVIDIA’s ecosystem or merely compete on price and performance.The Role of Market Reactions: Finding the Answer in the PriceHere’s where the stock market comes in. Instead of relying solely on speculative opinions, I suggest that the best way to gauge the impact of DeepSeek is to observe NVIDIA’s stock price. The stock market is often a better truth-teller than any single analysis. It reflects collective sentiment, informed by analysts, insiders, and countless external factors.What to Watch:The Reaction to the NewsSince the DeepSeek news broke, NVIDIA’s stock has not shown any drastic reaction. It actually rose apx 2.5% after the news came out, if we look at NVDA stock price from the next day it traded, to the close of the week. This lack of significant movement, not to mention lack of stock price decline (crash...?) -- suggests that the market does not yet see DeepSeek as a significant disruptor. If it were, we would expect a sharp and sustained price decline. Who remembers other cases, such as Facebook’s Cambridge Analytica scandal a few years ago and the immediate FB stock decline?Earnings as a CatalystNVIDIA’s upcoming earnings report will be pivotal. Pay close attention to management’s commentary, particularly regarding competitive risks in the AI space. If DeepSeek is a genuine threat, it could show up in NVIDIA’s guidance or performance, especially in its data center segment. I propose observing NVIDIA’s stock price from the time the news broke until two weeks after earnings. This period should provide enough data to assess whether DeepSeek is having a tangible impact, even if will not be talked about. The price knows, and it almost always knows better than you, or anyone else.Interpreting the Price Action Post Upcoming Nvidia Earnings (Scheduled for 26 Feb 2025): What It Might Tell UsNVDA stock price is your best guide to the \"truth\"Scenario 1 for the Upcoming Nvidia Earnings Report: Stock Rises or Remains StableIf NVIDIA’s stock rises or stays within its current range, the market is likely signaling that DeepSeek is not a major disruptor. Perhaps NVIDIA’s ecosystem is too entrenched, or DeepSeek’s solution doesn’t offer enough differentiation. It’s also possible that other factors, such as AI demand growth or NVIDIA’s new Blackwell chips, outweigh any competitive threats.Scenario 2 for the Upcoming Nvidia Earnings Report: Stock DeclinesIf NVIDIA’s stock declines, the reasons warrant closer examination. Is the drop due to bottlenecks in Blackwell chip deliveries, macroeconomic pressures, or broader market trends? Or does it reflect legitimate concerns about DeepSeek? Analysts will need to scrutinize earnings commentary, data center revenue trends, and any shifts in market share. It’s critical to avoid jumping to conclusions without understanding the underlying reasons for the decline.The Unknowns: Factors and Their WeightsOne of the challenges in analyzing stock movements is that we can never know all the factors affecting a stock price, nor the relative weights of those factors. We might think we know, we may hear great explanations, but we don't exacly know. Earnings reports often illustrate this: a company might beat revenue and EPS estimates, yet the stock declines. Analysts scramble to explain why—was it slower sales growth, weaker guidance, or some other reason? The reality is that the stock market processes countless variables simultaneously, and not all of them are visible to us. The granular variables and their weights will never be known to us. But price knows.The same principle applies here. Even if NVIDIA’s stock remains stable, it’s possible that DeepSeek is a growing threat but not yet significant enough to outweigh other factors. Conversely, if the stock declines, DeepSeek may not be the primary cause. This complexity is why I emphasize looking at the stock price holistically and over time, rather than rushing to judgment based on short-term moves.Seeking the Deep Behind DeepSeek: Trust the Price, Not the NewsDeepSeek’s potential to disrupt NVIDIA and the American AI industry is an open question, but the best way to find an answer is to let the stock market speak. Watch NVIDIA’s price action from the time the news broke until two weeks after its upcoming earnings. If the stock remains stable or rises, it’s likely that DeepSeek is not a significant threat. If it declines, dig deeper into the reasons—whether they’re related to DeepSeek or other factors.While price action can act as a “truth detector,” it’s not infallible. The market may not immediately price in all information, and short-term movements can be influenced by noise, speculation, or interested parties (e.g., short sellers amplifying fears about DeepSeek). As always, exercise caution and remain open to multiple interpretations. But do follow the price more than anyone's opinion, especially yours.Ultimately, the price knows. Follow the money. Follow the price and you shall be closer to finding the truth.So far, here is the most simple price chart of NVDA stock within the past 100 days. I don't see any panic yet from the \"truth machine\", do you? You can decide for yourself is you see any DeepSeek news related panic. But let's wait till 2 weeks after the next earnings to unveal further \"truth\".NVDA trading range: $127-$152 (100 days). Weekly chart.Also Read: How small Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek shocked Silicon ValleySource: The Financial TimesA small Chinese artificial intelligence lab stunned the world this week by revealing the technical recipe for its cutting-edge model, turning its reclusive leader into a national hero who has defied US attempts to stop China’s high-tech ambitions. DeepSeek, founded by hedge fund manager Liang Wenfeng, released its R1 model on Monday, explaining in a detailed paper how to build a large language model on a bootstrapped budget that can automatically learn and improve itself without human supervision.US companies including OpenAI and Google DeepMind pioneered developments in reasoning models, a relatively new field of AI research that is attempting to make models match human cognitive capabilities. In December, the San Francisco-based OpenAI released the full version of its o1 model but kept its methods secret. DeepSeek’s R1 release sparked a frenzied debate in Silicon Valley about whether better resourced US AI companies, including Meta and Anthropic, can defend their technical edge.Meanwhile, Liang has become a focal point of national pride at home. This week, he was the only AI leader selected to attend a publicised meeting of entrepreneurs with the country’s second-most powerful leader, Li Qiang. The entrepreneurs were told to “concentrate efforts to break through key core technologies.”In 2021, Liang started buying thousands of Nvidia graphic processing units for his AI side project while running his quant trading fund High-Flyer. Industry insiders viewed it as the eccentric actions of a billionaire looking for a new hobby.“When we first met him, he was this very nerdy guy with a terrible hairstyle talking about building a 10,000-chip cluster to train his own models. We didn’t take him seriously,” said one of Liang’s business partners. “He couldn’t articulate his vision other than saying: I want to build this, and it will be a game change. We thought this was only possible from giants like ByteDance and Alibaba,” the person added. Liang’s status as an outsider in the AI field was an unexpected source of strength. At High-Flyer, he built a fortune by using AI and algorithms to identify patterns that could affect stock prices. His team became adept at using Nvidia chips to make money trading stocks. In 2023, he launched DeepSeek, announcing his intention to develop human-level AI.“Liang built an exceptional infrastructure team that really understands how the chips worked,” said one founder at a rival LLM company. “He took his best people with him from the hedge fund to DeepSeek.”After Washington banned Nvidia from exporting its most powerful chips to China, local AI companies have been forced to find innovative ways to maximise the computing power of a limited number of onshore chips — a problem Liang’s team already knew how to solve.“DeepSeek’s engineers know how to unlock the potential of these GPUs, even if they are not state of the art,” said one AI researcher close to the company. Industry insiders say DeepSeek’s singular focus on research makes it a dangerous competitor because it is willing to share its breakthroughs rather than protect them for commercial gains. DeepSeek has not raised money from outside funds or made significant moves to monetise its models.“DeepSeek is run like the early days of DeepMind,” said one AI investor in Beijing. “It is purely focused on research and engineering.”Liang, who is personally involved in DeepSeek’s research, uses proceeds from his hedge fund trading to pay top salaries for the best AI talent. Along with TikTok-owner ByteDance, DeepSeek is known for giving the highest remuneration available to AI engineers in China, with staff based in offices in Hangzhou and Beijing.“DeepSeek’s offices feel like a university campus for serious researchers,” said the business partner. “The team believes in Liang’s vision: to show the world that the Chinese can be creative and build something from zero.”DeepSeek and High-Flyer did not respond to a request for comment.Liang has styled DeepSeek as a uniquely “local” company, staffed with PhDs from top Chinese schools, Peking, Tsinghua and Beihang universities rather than experts from US institutions.In an interview with the domestic press last year, he said his core team “did not have people who returned from overseas. They are all local . . . We have to develop the top talent ourselves”. DeepSeek’s identity as a purely Chinese LLM company has won it plaudits at home. DeepSeek claimed it used just 2,048 Nvidia H800s and $5.6mn to train a model with 671bn parameters, a fraction of what OpenAI and Google spent to train comparably sized models.Ritwik Gupta, AI policy researcher at the University of California, Berkeley, said DeepSeek’s recent model releases demonstrate that “there is no moat when it comes to AI capabilities”.“The first person to train models has to expend lots of resources to get there,” he said. “But the second mover can get there cheaper and more quickly.”Gupta added that China had a much larger talent pool of systems engineers than the US who understand how to get the best use of computing resources to train and run models more cheaply.Industry insiders say that even though DeepSeek has shown impressive results with limited resources, it remains an open question whether it can continue to be competitive as the industry evolves.Returns at High-Flyer, its big backer, lagged behind in 2024, which one person close to Liang blamed on the founder’s attention being mostly focused on DeepSeek.Its US rivals are not standing still. They are building mega “clusters” of Nvidia’s next-generation Blackwell chips, creating the computing power that threatens to once again create a performance gap with Chinese rivals.This week, OpenAI said it was creating a joint venture with Japan’s SoftBank, dubbed Stargate, with plans to spend at least $100bn on AI infrastructure in the US. Elon Musk’s xAI is massively expanding its Colossus supercomputer to contain more than 1mn GPUs to help train its Grok AI models.“DeepSeek has one of the largest advanced computing clusters in China,” said Liang’s business partner. “They have enough capacity for now, but not much longer.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1769,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4199855942376372","authorId":"4199855942376372","name":"SmoothTW","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4199855942376372","authorIdStr":"4199855942376372"},"content":"The new approach to LLM training that Deepseek R1 used is much less compute intensive than other models. Less compute = less need for capex on high end GPUs = bearish for NVDA in the short term.","text":"The new approach to LLM training that Deepseek R1 used is much less compute intensive than other models. Less compute = less need for capex on high end GPUs = bearish for NVDA in the short term.","html":"The new approach to LLM training that Deepseek R1 used is much less compute intensive than other models. Less compute = less need for capex on high end GPUs = bearish for NVDA in the short term."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"essenList":[{"id":397798874034352,"gmtCreate":1738143781817,"gmtModify":1738144200866,"author":{"id":"10000000000010929","authorId":"10000000000010929","name":"ShayBoloor","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/827c3f97d3890eff0091b72bce53d46d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"10000000000010929","authorIdStr":"10000000000010929"},"themes":[],"title":"DeepSeek is a Massive Tailwind for Software Companies","htmlText":"DeepSeek is a massive tailwind for software companies -- here are 15 names to monitor 🧐1. <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NOW\">$ServiceNow(NOW)$</a> -- Powers digital transformation through automated enterprise workflows, leading the IT management space.2. <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a> -- Transforms massive datasets into actionable insights, driving operational efficiency for enterprises.3. <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ORCL\">$Oracle(ORCL)$</a> -- Combines AI-driven insights with enterprise resource planning in a unified cloud platform for streamlined decision-making.4. <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SNOW\">$Snowflake(SNOW)$</a> – Redefines data management with a collaborative cloud platform designed to unlock enterprise AI opportunities","listText":"DeepSeek is a massive tailwind for software companies -- here are 15 names to monitor 🧐1. <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NOW\">$ServiceNow(NOW)$</a> -- Powers digital transformation through automated enterprise workflows, leading the IT management space.2. <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a> -- Transforms massive datasets into actionable insights, driving operational efficiency for enterprises.3. <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ORCL\">$Oracle(ORCL)$</a> -- Combines AI-driven insights with enterprise resource planning in a unified cloud platform for streamlined decision-making.4. <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SNOW\">$Snowflake(SNOW)$</a> – Redefines data management with a collaborative cloud platform designed to unlock enterprise AI opportunities","text":"DeepSeek is a massive tailwind for software companies -- here are 15 names to monitor 🧐1. $ServiceNow(NOW)$ -- Powers digital transformation through automated enterprise workflows, leading the IT management space.2. $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ -- Transforms massive datasets into actionable insights, driving operational efficiency for enterprises.3. $Oracle(ORCL)$ -- Combines AI-driven insights with enterprise resource planning in a unified cloud platform for streamlined decision-making.4. $Snowflake(SNOW)$ – Redefines data management with a collaborative cloud platform designed to unlock enterprise AI opportunities","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":322,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":18,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/397798874034352","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1343,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":397123854041736,"gmtCreate":1737979001607,"gmtModify":1737981419235,"author":{"id":"4105176974307820","authorId":"4105176974307820","name":"Tiger_James Ooi","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7961414f4a4084256e762297d29aa077","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105176974307820","authorIdStr":"4105176974307820"},"themes":[],"title":"AI Stocks Drop Premarket Amid DeepSeek Hype: Why Investors Shouldn’t Overreact?","htmlText":"What is DeepSeek?DeepSeek is an open-source AI model developed by a Chinese AI startup.It reportedly outperforms industry-leading models, such as OpenAI’s GPT-4, on several key benchmarks at a significantly lower cost. DeepSeek claims to have spent only $5.6 million to develop its model.However, Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang mentioned that DeepSeek has access to around 50,000 NVIDIA H100 AI GPUs (each costing $27,000 to $40,000 per unit).Due to export restrictions, DeepSeek has avoided discussing its use of these GPUs, suggesting that their true costs may be understated.&nbsp;The Impact of DeepSeek’s SuccessCost Efficiency Concerns:If a Chinese startup can develop an LLM (large language model) as good as OpenAI or Meta’s models with significantly fewer AI chips (lesser cost), why should compa","listText":"What is DeepSeek?DeepSeek is an open-source AI model developed by a Chinese AI startup.It reportedly outperforms industry-leading models, such as OpenAI’s GPT-4, on several key benchmarks at a significantly lower cost. DeepSeek claims to have spent only $5.6 million to develop its model.However, Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang mentioned that DeepSeek has access to around 50,000 NVIDIA H100 AI GPUs (each costing $27,000 to $40,000 per unit).Due to export restrictions, DeepSeek has avoided discussing its use of these GPUs, suggesting that their true costs may be understated.&nbsp;The Impact of DeepSeek’s SuccessCost Efficiency Concerns:If a Chinese startup can develop an LLM (large language model) as good as OpenAI or Meta’s models with significantly fewer AI chips (lesser cost), why should compa","text":"What is DeepSeek?DeepSeek is an open-source AI model developed by a Chinese AI startup.It reportedly outperforms industry-leading models, such as OpenAI’s GPT-4, on several key benchmarks at a significantly lower cost. DeepSeek claims to have spent only $5.6 million to develop its model.However, Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang mentioned that DeepSeek has access to around 50,000 NVIDIA H100 AI GPUs (each costing $27,000 to $40,000 per unit).Due to export restrictions, DeepSeek has avoided discussing its use of these GPUs, suggesting that their true costs may be understated. The Impact of DeepSeek’s SuccessCost Efficiency Concerns:If a Chinese startup can develop an LLM (large language model) as good as OpenAI or Meta’s models with significantly fewer AI chips (lesser cost), why should compa","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8a7bb50d46c09f3afd9c3943497d5ddc"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":61,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":30,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/397123854041736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":39469,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3586515468962759","authorId":"3586515468962759","name":"ShawnTan1978","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04f0102b6947598a9fd554679922a9f8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586515468962759","authorIdStr":"3586515468962759"},"content":"Nonsense . CCP is the way to go! I short 3000 nvidia stock on Friday. Laughing to the bank now!","text":"Nonsense . CCP is the way to go! I short 3000 nvidia stock on Friday. Laughing to the bank now!","html":"Nonsense . CCP is the way to go! I short 3000 nvidia stock on Friday. Laughing to the bank now!"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":397795316375728,"gmtCreate":1738142913249,"gmtModify":1738143600154,"author":{"id":"4153364923542132","authorId":"4153364923542132","name":"MasterWU","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/30a11b59a865f2952a526275148e2be0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4153364923542132","authorIdStr":"4153364923542132"},"themes":[],"title":"Magnificent Seven: What's the Final Impact?","htmlText":"Hello everyone! Today i want to share some technical analysis with you!1.I understand the RED PART of this map, but I am puzzled by the deep green part of this map. Where do these bullish feelings come from? Don't tell me this is rotation, as in a paradigm-shift event, EVERYONE WILL BE IMPACTED. EVERYONE!! The next crash leg is almost ready. <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MAGS\">$The Magnificent Seven ETF(MAGS)$</a> Image2.WILD TWO DAYS: (1) in the next 48 hours, your nerve will be tested--as four of Mag-7 will report earnings, juxposted by Powell's presser &amp; FOMC. (2) Make-or-break moment for the indexes as well, when DJI, NYA &amp; SPX are all near ATHs. (3) almost forget, Feb. 1 will be Tariff Day.Image","listText":"Hello everyone! Today i want to share some technical analysis with you!1.I understand the RED PART of this map, but I am puzzled by the deep green part of this map. Where do these bullish feelings come from? Don't tell me this is rotation, as in a paradigm-shift event, EVERYONE WILL BE IMPACTED. EVERYONE!! The next crash leg is almost ready. <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MAGS\">$The Magnificent Seven ETF(MAGS)$</a> Image2.WILD TWO DAYS: (1) in the next 48 hours, your nerve will be tested--as four of Mag-7 will report earnings, juxposted by Powell's presser &amp; FOMC. (2) Make-or-break moment for the indexes as well, when DJI, NYA &amp; SPX are all near ATHs. (3) almost forget, Feb. 1 will be Tariff Day.Image","text":"Hello everyone! Today i want to share some technical analysis with you!1.I understand the RED PART of this map, but I am puzzled by the deep green part of this map. Where do these bullish feelings come from? Don't tell me this is rotation, as in a paradigm-shift event, EVERYONE WILL BE IMPACTED. EVERYONE!! The next crash leg is almost ready. $The Magnificent Seven ETF(MAGS)$ Image2.WILD TWO DAYS: (1) in the next 48 hours, your nerve will be tested--as four of Mag-7 will report earnings, juxposted by Powell's presser & FOMC. (2) Make-or-break moment for the indexes as well, when DJI, NYA & SPX are all near ATHs. (3) almost forget, Feb. 1 will be Tariff Day.Image","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/efc52ad12ab2e34a01801f0a0c93ad75","width":"1527","height":"1149"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":152,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":4,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/397795316375728","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":648,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":397078662266944,"gmtCreate":1737968106353,"gmtModify":1737968211291,"author":{"id":"1436866998000","authorId":"1436866998000","name":"Ryan_Z0528","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d65c4b5c01f61efa0ccc7644f4f6b9b9","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"1436866998000","authorIdStr":"1436866998000"},"themes":[],"title":"Market Preview from Deepseek: Big Tech Earnings & FED's Meeting in Focus","htmlText":"Nasdaq 100 Index Futures Extend Losses to 3%, DEEPSEEK Sparks Concerns Over U.S. Tech DominancePre-Market Plunge in Semiconductor Stocks: <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ARM\">$ARM Holdings(ARM)$</a> : -7.3% <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA(NVDA)$</a> : -7% <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AVGO\">$Broadcom(AVGO)$</a> : -6.9% <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMCI\">$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$</a> : -6.4% <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSM\">$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$</a> : -6.9% <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MU\">$Micron Technology(MU)$</a> : -5.73% <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QCOM\">$Qualcomm(QCOM)$</a> : -4.75% <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMD\">$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$</a> : -5.44% <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/INTC\">$Intel(INTC)$</a> : -","listText":"Nasdaq 100 Index Futures Extend Losses to 3%, DEEPSEEK Sparks Concerns Over U.S. Tech DominancePre-Market Plunge in Semiconductor Stocks: <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ARM\">$ARM Holdings(ARM)$</a> : -7.3% <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA(NVDA)$</a> : -7% <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AVGO\">$Broadcom(AVGO)$</a> : -6.9% <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMCI\">$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$</a> : -6.4% <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSM\">$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$</a> : -6.9% <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MU\">$Micron Technology(MU)$</a> : -5.73% <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QCOM\">$Qualcomm(QCOM)$</a> : -4.75% <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMD\">$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$</a> : -5.44% <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/INTC\">$Intel(INTC)$</a> : -","text":"Nasdaq 100 Index Futures Extend Losses to 3%, DEEPSEEK Sparks Concerns Over U.S. Tech DominancePre-Market Plunge in Semiconductor Stocks: $ARM Holdings(ARM)$ : -7.3% $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ : -7% $Broadcom(AVGO)$ : -6.9% $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ : -6.4% $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ : -6.9% $Micron Technology(MU)$ : -5.73% $Qualcomm(QCOM)$ : -4.75% $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ : -5.44% $Intel(INTC)$ : -","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f975755050f664d055ca8f63e07d8316","width":"1280","height":"720"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":70,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":5,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/397078662266944","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":396978985505160,"gmtCreate":1737943916570,"gmtModify":1737953037166,"author":{"id":"4172287591330932","authorId":"4172287591330932","name":"Hen Solo","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e8f9d57b757c07c87986ef8a0be25085","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4172287591330932","authorIdStr":"4172287591330932"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Very deep BC! A great write up. Yet another application not available in New Zealand???//<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4171900329979952\">@Barcode</a>: 🤔💭🧐 The AI landscape is undergoing a rapid and unprecedented evolution, characterised by a real-time redefinition of foundational paradigms. DeepSeek’s achievement serves as a compelling testament to the catalytic role of ingenuity under constraint, underscoring the diminishing primacy of brute resource expenditure in favour of strategic optimisation. For incumbent industry leaders, the imperative has shifted from a binary question of adaptation to the critical urgency of its velocity. As the accessibility of advanced AI proliferates, the potential benefits for end-users expand dramatically. However, the trajectory of this transformation","listText":"Very deep BC! A great write up. Yet another application not available in New Zealand???//<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4171900329979952\">@Barcode</a>: 🤔💭🧐 The AI landscape is undergoing a rapid and unprecedented evolution, characterised by a real-time redefinition of foundational paradigms. DeepSeek’s achievement serves as a compelling testament to the catalytic role of ingenuity under constraint, underscoring the diminishing primacy of brute resource expenditure in favour of strategic optimisation. For incumbent industry leaders, the imperative has shifted from a binary question of adaptation to the critical urgency of its velocity. As the accessibility of advanced AI proliferates, the potential benefits for end-users expand dramatically. However, the trajectory of this transformation","text":"Very deep BC! A great write up. Yet another application not available in New Zealand???//@Barcode: 🤔💭🧐 The AI landscape is undergoing a rapid and unprecedented evolution, characterised by a real-time redefinition of foundational paradigms. DeepSeek’s achievement serves as a compelling testament to the catalytic role of ingenuity under constraint, underscoring the diminishing primacy of brute resource expenditure in favour of strategic optimisation. For incumbent industry leaders, the imperative has shifted from a binary question of adaptation to the critical urgency of its velocity. As the accessibility of advanced AI proliferates, the potential benefits for end-users expand dramatically. However, the trajectory of this transformation","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/396978985505160","repostId":"1153606736","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1153606736","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1737864000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153606736?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-01-26 12:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will Chinese DeepSeek Disrupt Nvidia?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153606736","media":"Forexlive","summary":"The stock price of NVDA stock is probably the best guide to this answer.","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_2139294474\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Will Chinese DeepSeek Disrupt NVIDIA and the American AI Industry?</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The global AI race has taken an intriguing turn with the emergence of China&#39;s DeepSeek, touted by some as a potential disruptor to NVIDIA&#39;s dominance in the AI hardware space. As speculation swirls, stock investors, analysts, and thought leaders are left grappling with the critical question: Is DeepSeek a genuine threat to NVIDIA and the broader American AI industry, or is this a case of overhyped news amplified by interested parties?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The news that DeepSeek&#39;s model surpassed OpenAI&#39;s o1 in specific reasoning tests has sparked intense debate within the AI community. This development has significant implications for the AI market, potentially impacting the stock prices of companies like NVIDIA and other AI-related companies.</p><p>I’ll preface this by saying that I am not a renowned expert in deep technology or AI hardware. I don’t claim to have a definitive answer. Instead, I propose a method to find the answer—not by theorizing endlessly but by observing how the stock market reacts. The stock market, with its collective wisdom and ability to process information, often acts as the closest thing we have to a truth detector.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Let’s explore the context, evaluate the key factors at play, and develop a logical framework to assess the significance of DeepSeek’s emergence.</p><h2 id=\"id_3124687145\" style=\"text-align: start;\">The Landscape: NVIDIA’s Moat vs. DeepSeek’s Promise</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">NVIDIA has long been the undisputed leader in AI hardware, leveraging its GPUs and CUDA software ecosystem to dominate the market. Its ecosystem is sticky—developers, hyperscalers, and enterprise clients are deeply entrenched in its platform, creating significant switching costs. This is not unlike Apple’s ecosystem, where loyal users and interconnected services create barriers to exit.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">DeepSeek, on the other hand, reportedly offers a more cost-efficient AI solution. The analogy some have drawn is that DeepSeek could be the “cheaper smartphone” to NVIDIA’s “iPhone.” In the smartphone industry, the availability of cheaper alternatives has undeniably shifted market share, particularly in emerging markets. But did this disrupt Apple’s stock price or its dominance among its loyal user base? Not significantly. The same could apply to NVIDIA, depending on whether DeepSeek can replicate NVIDIA’s ecosystem or merely compete on price and performance.</p><h2 id=\"id_2754502625\" style=\"text-align: start;\">The Role of Market Reactions: Finding the Answer in the Price</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Here’s where the stock market comes in. Instead of relying solely on speculative opinions, <strong>I suggest that the best way to gauge the impact of DeepSeek is to observe NVIDIA’s stock price</strong>. The stock market is often a better truth-teller than any single analysis. It reflects collective sentiment, informed by analysts, insiders, and countless external factors.</p><h3 id=\"id_716272745\" style=\"text-align: start;\">What to Watch:</h3><ol start=\"1\" style=\"list-style-type: decimal;\"><li><p><strong>The Reaction to the News</strong><br/>Since the DeepSeek news broke, NVIDIA’s stock has not shown any drastic reaction. It actually rose apx 2.5% after the news came out, if we look at NVDA stock price from the next day it traded, to the close of the week. <strong>This lack of significant movement, not to mention lack of stock price decline (crash...?) -- suggests that the market does not yet see DeepSeek as a significant disruptor</strong>. If it were, we would expect a sharp and sustained price decline. Who remembers other cases, such as Facebook’s Cambridge Analytica scandal a few years ago and the immediate FB stock decline?</p></li><li><p><strong>Earnings as a Catalyst</strong><br/>NVIDIA’s upcoming earnings report will be pivotal. Pay close attention to management’s commentary, particularly regarding competitive risks in the AI space. If DeepSeek is a genuine threat, it could show up in NVIDIA’s guidance or performance, especially in its data center segment. <strong>I propose observing NVIDIA’s stock price from the time the news broke until two weeks after earnings</strong>. This period should provide enough data to assess whether DeepSeek is having a tangible impact, even if will not be talked about. <strong>The price knows, and it almost always knows better than you, or anyone else</strong>.</p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_2278388754\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Interpreting the Price Action Post Upcoming Nvidia Earnings (Scheduled for 26 Feb 2025): What It Might Tell Us</h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b0a9b5f3ee48430da66d764f7f07053f\" title=\"NVDA stock price is your best guide to the &#34;truth&#34;\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"1634\"/><span>NVDA stock price is your best guide to the &#34;truth&#34;</span></p><h3 id=\"id_1345298125\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Scenario 1 for the Upcoming Nvidia Earnings Report: Stock Rises or Remains Stable</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\">If NVIDIA’s stock rises or stays within its current range, the market is likely signaling that DeepSeek is not a major disruptor. Perhaps NVIDIA’s ecosystem is too entrenched, or DeepSeek’s solution doesn’t offer enough differentiation. It’s also possible that other factors, such as AI demand growth or NVIDIA’s new Blackwell chips, outweigh any competitive threats.</p><h3 id=\"id_1542877096\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Scenario 2 for the Upcoming Nvidia Earnings Report: Stock Declines</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\">If NVIDIA’s stock declines, the reasons warrant closer examination. Is the drop due to bottlenecks in Blackwell chip deliveries, macroeconomic pressures, or broader market trends? Or does it reflect legitimate concerns about DeepSeek? Analysts will need to scrutinize earnings commentary, data center revenue trends, and any shifts in market share. It’s critical to avoid jumping to conclusions without understanding the underlying reasons for the decline.</p><h2 id=\"id_3331170201\" style=\"text-align: start;\">The Unknowns: Factors and Their Weights</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">One of the challenges in analyzing stock movements is that <strong>we can never know all the factors affecting a stock price, nor the relative weights of those factors</strong>. We might think we know, we may hear great explanations, but we don&#39;t exacly know. Earnings reports often illustrate this: a company might beat revenue and EPS estimates, yet the stock declines. Analysts scramble to explain why—was it slower sales growth, weaker guidance, or some other reason? The reality is that the stock market processes countless variables simultaneously, and not all of them are visible to us. The granular variables and their weights will never be known to us. But price knows.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The same principle applies here. Even if NVIDIA’s stock remains stable, it’s possible that DeepSeek is a growing threat but not yet significant enough to outweigh other factors. Conversely, if the stock declines, DeepSeek may not be the primary cause. This complexity is why I emphasize looking at the stock price holistically and over time, rather than rushing to judgment based on short-term moves.</p><h2 id=\"id_3858120432\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Seeking the Deep Behind DeepSeek: Trust the Price, Not the News</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">DeepSeek’s potential to disrupt NVIDIA and the American AI industry is an open question, but the best way to find an answer is to let the stock market speak. Watch NVIDIA’s price action from the time the news broke until two weeks after its upcoming earnings. If the stock remains stable or rises, it’s likely that DeepSeek is not a significant threat. If it declines, dig deeper into the reasons—whether they’re related to DeepSeek or other factors.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While price action can act as a “truth detector,” it’s not infallible. The market may not immediately price in all information, and short-term movements can be influenced by noise, speculation, or interested parties (e.g., short sellers amplifying fears about DeepSeek). As always, exercise caution and remain open to multiple interpretations. <strong>But do follow the price more than anyone&#39;s opinion, especially yours</strong>.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Ultimately, the price knows. Follow the money. Follow the price and you shall be closer to finding the truth.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">So far, here is the most simple price chart of NVDA stock within the past 100 days. <strong>I don&#39;t see any panic yet from the &#34;truth machine&#34;, do you?</strong> You can decide for yourself is you see any DeepSeek news related panic. But let&#39;s wait till 2 weeks after the next earnings to unveal further &#34;truth&#34;.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c232155f0c94afcf4599dd5875452b7c\" title=\"NVDA trading range: $127-$152 (100 days). Weekly chart.\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"425\"/><span>NVDA trading range: $127-$152 (100 days). Weekly chart.</span></p><h2 id=\"id_1683244735\">Also Read: How small Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek shocked Silicon Valley</h2><p>Source: The Financial Times</p><p>A small Chinese artificial intelligence lab stunned the world this week by revealing the technical recipe for its cutting-edge model, turning its reclusive leader into a national hero who has defied US attempts to stop China’s high-tech ambitions. </p><p>DeepSeek, founded by hedge fund manager Liang Wenfeng, released its R1 model on Monday, explaining in a detailed paper how to build a large language model on a bootstrapped budget that can automatically learn and improve itself without human supervision.</p><p>US companies including OpenAI and Google DeepMind pioneered developments in reasoning models, a relatively new field of AI research that is attempting to make models match human cognitive capabilities. In December, the San Francisco-based OpenAI released the full version of its o1 model but kept its methods secret. </p><p>DeepSeek’s R1 release sparked a frenzied debate in Silicon Valley about whether better resourced US AI companies, including Meta and Anthropic, can defend their technical edge.</p><p>Meanwhile, Liang has become a focal point of national pride at home. This week, he was the only AI leader selected to attend a publicised meeting of entrepreneurs with the country’s second-most powerful leader, Li Qiang. The entrepreneurs were told to “concentrate efforts to break through key core technologies.”</p><p>In 2021, Liang started buying thousands of Nvidia graphic processing units for his AI side project while running his quant trading fund High-Flyer. Industry insiders viewed it as the eccentric actions of a billionaire looking for a new hobby.</p><p>“When we first met him, he was this very nerdy guy with a terrible hairstyle talking about building a 10,000-chip cluster to train his own models. We didn’t take him seriously,” said one of Liang’s business partners. </p><p>“He couldn’t articulate his vision other than saying: I want to build this, and it will be a game change. We thought this was only possible from giants like ByteDance and Alibaba,” the person added. </p><p>Liang’s status as an outsider in the AI field was an unexpected source of strength. At High-Flyer, he built a fortune by using AI and algorithms to identify patterns that could affect stock prices. His team became adept at using Nvidia chips to make money trading stocks. In 2023, he launched DeepSeek, announcing his intention to develop human-level AI.</p><p>“Liang built an exceptional infrastructure team that really understands how the chips worked,” said one founder at a rival LLM company. “He took his best people with him from the hedge fund to DeepSeek.”</p><p>After Washington banned Nvidia from exporting its most powerful chips to China, local AI companies have been forced to find innovative ways to maximise the computing power of a limited number of onshore chips — a problem Liang’s team already knew how to solve.</p><p>“DeepSeek’s engineers know how to unlock the potential of these GPUs, even if they are not state of the art,” said one AI researcher close to the company. </p><p>Industry insiders say DeepSeek’s singular focus on research makes it a dangerous competitor because it is willing to share its breakthroughs rather than protect them for commercial gains. DeepSeek has not raised money from outside funds or made significant moves to monetise its models.</p><p>“DeepSeek is run like the early days of DeepMind,” said one AI investor in Beijing. “It is purely focused on research and engineering.”</p><p>Liang, who is personally involved in DeepSeek’s research, uses proceeds from his hedge fund trading to pay top salaries for the best AI talent. Along with TikTok-owner ByteDance, DeepSeek is known for giving the highest remuneration available to AI engineers in China, with staff based in offices in Hangzhou and Beijing.</p><p>“DeepSeek’s offices feel like a university campus for serious researchers,” said the business partner. “The team believes in Liang’s vision: to show the world that the Chinese can be creative and build something from zero.”</p><p>DeepSeek and High-Flyer did not respond to a request for comment.</p><p>Liang has styled DeepSeek as a uniquely “local” company, staffed with PhDs from top Chinese schools, Peking, Tsinghua and Beihang universities rather than experts from US institutions.</p><p>In an interview with the domestic press last year, he said his core team “did not have people who returned from overseas. They are all local . . . We have to develop the top talent ourselves”. DeepSeek’s identity as a purely Chinese LLM company has won it plaudits at home. </p><p>DeepSeek claimed it used just 2,048 Nvidia H800s and $5.6mn to train a model with 671bn parameters, a fraction of what OpenAI and Google spent to train comparably sized models.</p><p>Ritwik Gupta, AI policy researcher at the University of California, Berkeley, said DeepSeek’s recent model releases demonstrate that “there is no moat when it comes to AI capabilities”.</p><p>“The first person to train models has to expend lots of resources to get there,” he said. “But the second mover can get there cheaper and more quickly.”</p><p>Gupta added that China had a much larger talent pool of systems engineers than the US who understand how to get the best use of computing resources to train and run models more cheaply.</p><p>Industry insiders say that even though DeepSeek has shown impressive results with limited resources, it remains an open question whether it can continue to be competitive as the industry evolves.</p><p>Returns at High-Flyer, its big backer, lagged behind in 2024, which one person close to Liang blamed on the founder’s attention being mostly focused on DeepSeek.</p><p>Its US rivals are not standing still. They are building mega “clusters” of Nvidia’s next-generation Blackwell chips, creating the computing power that threatens to once again create a performance gap with Chinese rivals.</p><p>This week, OpenAI said it was creating a joint venture with Japan’s SoftBank, dubbed Stargate, with plans to spend at least $100bn on AI infrastructure in the US. Elon Musk’s xAI is massively expanding its Colossus supercomputer to contain more than 1mn GPUs to help train its Grok AI models.</p><p>“DeepSeek has one of the largest advanced computing clusters in China,” said Liang’s business partner. “They have enough capacity for now, but not much longer.” </p></body></html>","source":"lsy1623168602413","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Chinese DeepSeek Disrupt Nvidia?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Chinese DeepSeek Disrupt Nvidia?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-01-26 12:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.forexlive.com/news/will-chinese-deepseek-disrupt-nvidia-20250125/><strong>Forexlive</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Will Chinese DeepSeek Disrupt NVIDIA and the American AI Industry?The global AI race has taken an intriguing turn with the emergence of China's DeepSeek, touted by some as a potential disruptor to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.forexlive.com/news/will-chinese-deepseek-disrupt-nvidia-20250125/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.forexlive.com/news/will-chinese-deepseek-disrupt-nvidia-20250125/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153606736","content_text":"Will Chinese DeepSeek Disrupt NVIDIA and the American AI Industry?The global AI race has taken an intriguing turn with the emergence of China's DeepSeek, touted by some as a potential disruptor to NVIDIA's dominance in the AI hardware space. As speculation swirls, stock investors, analysts, and thought leaders are left grappling with the critical question: Is DeepSeek a genuine threat to NVIDIA and the broader American AI industry, or is this a case of overhyped news amplified by interested parties?The news that DeepSeek's model surpassed OpenAI's o1 in specific reasoning tests has sparked intense debate within the AI community. This development has significant implications for the AI market, potentially impacting the stock prices of companies like NVIDIA and other AI-related companies.I’ll preface this by saying that I am not a renowned expert in deep technology or AI hardware. I don’t claim to have a definitive answer. Instead, I propose a method to find the answer—not by theorizing endlessly but by observing how the stock market reacts. The stock market, with its collective wisdom and ability to process information, often acts as the closest thing we have to a truth detector.Let’s explore the context, evaluate the key factors at play, and develop a logical framework to assess the significance of DeepSeek’s emergence.The Landscape: NVIDIA’s Moat vs. DeepSeek’s PromiseNVIDIA has long been the undisputed leader in AI hardware, leveraging its GPUs and CUDA software ecosystem to dominate the market. Its ecosystem is sticky—developers, hyperscalers, and enterprise clients are deeply entrenched in its platform, creating significant switching costs. This is not unlike Apple’s ecosystem, where loyal users and interconnected services create barriers to exit.DeepSeek, on the other hand, reportedly offers a more cost-efficient AI solution. The analogy some have drawn is that DeepSeek could be the “cheaper smartphone” to NVIDIA’s “iPhone.” In the smartphone industry, the availability of cheaper alternatives has undeniably shifted market share, particularly in emerging markets. But did this disrupt Apple’s stock price or its dominance among its loyal user base? Not significantly. The same could apply to NVIDIA, depending on whether DeepSeek can replicate NVIDIA’s ecosystem or merely compete on price and performance.The Role of Market Reactions: Finding the Answer in the PriceHere’s where the stock market comes in. Instead of relying solely on speculative opinions, I suggest that the best way to gauge the impact of DeepSeek is to observe NVIDIA’s stock price. The stock market is often a better truth-teller than any single analysis. It reflects collective sentiment, informed by analysts, insiders, and countless external factors.What to Watch:The Reaction to the NewsSince the DeepSeek news broke, NVIDIA’s stock has not shown any drastic reaction. It actually rose apx 2.5% after the news came out, if we look at NVDA stock price from the next day it traded, to the close of the week. This lack of significant movement, not to mention lack of stock price decline (crash...?) -- suggests that the market does not yet see DeepSeek as a significant disruptor. If it were, we would expect a sharp and sustained price decline. Who remembers other cases, such as Facebook’s Cambridge Analytica scandal a few years ago and the immediate FB stock decline?Earnings as a CatalystNVIDIA’s upcoming earnings report will be pivotal. Pay close attention to management’s commentary, particularly regarding competitive risks in the AI space. If DeepSeek is a genuine threat, it could show up in NVIDIA’s guidance or performance, especially in its data center segment. I propose observing NVIDIA’s stock price from the time the news broke until two weeks after earnings. This period should provide enough data to assess whether DeepSeek is having a tangible impact, even if will not be talked about. The price knows, and it almost always knows better than you, or anyone else.Interpreting the Price Action Post Upcoming Nvidia Earnings (Scheduled for 26 Feb 2025): What It Might Tell UsNVDA stock price is your best guide to the \"truth\"Scenario 1 for the Upcoming Nvidia Earnings Report: Stock Rises or Remains StableIf NVIDIA’s stock rises or stays within its current range, the market is likely signaling that DeepSeek is not a major disruptor. Perhaps NVIDIA’s ecosystem is too entrenched, or DeepSeek’s solution doesn’t offer enough differentiation. It’s also possible that other factors, such as AI demand growth or NVIDIA’s new Blackwell chips, outweigh any competitive threats.Scenario 2 for the Upcoming Nvidia Earnings Report: Stock DeclinesIf NVIDIA’s stock declines, the reasons warrant closer examination. Is the drop due to bottlenecks in Blackwell chip deliveries, macroeconomic pressures, or broader market trends? Or does it reflect legitimate concerns about DeepSeek? Analysts will need to scrutinize earnings commentary, data center revenue trends, and any shifts in market share. It’s critical to avoid jumping to conclusions without understanding the underlying reasons for the decline.The Unknowns: Factors and Their WeightsOne of the challenges in analyzing stock movements is that we can never know all the factors affecting a stock price, nor the relative weights of those factors. We might think we know, we may hear great explanations, but we don't exacly know. Earnings reports often illustrate this: a company might beat revenue and EPS estimates, yet the stock declines. Analysts scramble to explain why—was it slower sales growth, weaker guidance, or some other reason? The reality is that the stock market processes countless variables simultaneously, and not all of them are visible to us. The granular variables and their weights will never be known to us. But price knows.The same principle applies here. Even if NVIDIA’s stock remains stable, it’s possible that DeepSeek is a growing threat but not yet significant enough to outweigh other factors. Conversely, if the stock declines, DeepSeek may not be the primary cause. This complexity is why I emphasize looking at the stock price holistically and over time, rather than rushing to judgment based on short-term moves.Seeking the Deep Behind DeepSeek: Trust the Price, Not the NewsDeepSeek’s potential to disrupt NVIDIA and the American AI industry is an open question, but the best way to find an answer is to let the stock market speak. Watch NVIDIA’s price action from the time the news broke until two weeks after its upcoming earnings. If the stock remains stable or rises, it’s likely that DeepSeek is not a significant threat. If it declines, dig deeper into the reasons—whether they’re related to DeepSeek or other factors.While price action can act as a “truth detector,” it’s not infallible. The market may not immediately price in all information, and short-term movements can be influenced by noise, speculation, or interested parties (e.g., short sellers amplifying fears about DeepSeek). As always, exercise caution and remain open to multiple interpretations. But do follow the price more than anyone's opinion, especially yours.Ultimately, the price knows. Follow the money. Follow the price and you shall be closer to finding the truth.So far, here is the most simple price chart of NVDA stock within the past 100 days. I don't see any panic yet from the \"truth machine\", do you? You can decide for yourself is you see any DeepSeek news related panic. But let's wait till 2 weeks after the next earnings to unveal further \"truth\".NVDA trading range: $127-$152 (100 days). Weekly chart.Also Read: How small Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek shocked Silicon ValleySource: The Financial TimesA small Chinese artificial intelligence lab stunned the world this week by revealing the technical recipe for its cutting-edge model, turning its reclusive leader into a national hero who has defied US attempts to stop China’s high-tech ambitions. DeepSeek, founded by hedge fund manager Liang Wenfeng, released its R1 model on Monday, explaining in a detailed paper how to build a large language model on a bootstrapped budget that can automatically learn and improve itself without human supervision.US companies including OpenAI and Google DeepMind pioneered developments in reasoning models, a relatively new field of AI research that is attempting to make models match human cognitive capabilities. In December, the San Francisco-based OpenAI released the full version of its o1 model but kept its methods secret. DeepSeek’s R1 release sparked a frenzied debate in Silicon Valley about whether better resourced US AI companies, including Meta and Anthropic, can defend their technical edge.Meanwhile, Liang has become a focal point of national pride at home. This week, he was the only AI leader selected to attend a publicised meeting of entrepreneurs with the country’s second-most powerful leader, Li Qiang. The entrepreneurs were told to “concentrate efforts to break through key core technologies.”In 2021, Liang started buying thousands of Nvidia graphic processing units for his AI side project while running his quant trading fund High-Flyer. Industry insiders viewed it as the eccentric actions of a billionaire looking for a new hobby.“When we first met him, he was this very nerdy guy with a terrible hairstyle talking about building a 10,000-chip cluster to train his own models. We didn’t take him seriously,” said one of Liang’s business partners. “He couldn’t articulate his vision other than saying: I want to build this, and it will be a game change. We thought this was only possible from giants like ByteDance and Alibaba,” the person added. Liang’s status as an outsider in the AI field was an unexpected source of strength. At High-Flyer, he built a fortune by using AI and algorithms to identify patterns that could affect stock prices. His team became adept at using Nvidia chips to make money trading stocks. In 2023, he launched DeepSeek, announcing his intention to develop human-level AI.“Liang built an exceptional infrastructure team that really understands how the chips worked,” said one founder at a rival LLM company. “He took his best people with him from the hedge fund to DeepSeek.”After Washington banned Nvidia from exporting its most powerful chips to China, local AI companies have been forced to find innovative ways to maximise the computing power of a limited number of onshore chips — a problem Liang’s team already knew how to solve.“DeepSeek’s engineers know how to unlock the potential of these GPUs, even if they are not state of the art,” said one AI researcher close to the company. Industry insiders say DeepSeek’s singular focus on research makes it a dangerous competitor because it is willing to share its breakthroughs rather than protect them for commercial gains. DeepSeek has not raised money from outside funds or made significant moves to monetise its models.“DeepSeek is run like the early days of DeepMind,” said one AI investor in Beijing. “It is purely focused on research and engineering.”Liang, who is personally involved in DeepSeek’s research, uses proceeds from his hedge fund trading to pay top salaries for the best AI talent. Along with TikTok-owner ByteDance, DeepSeek is known for giving the highest remuneration available to AI engineers in China, with staff based in offices in Hangzhou and Beijing.“DeepSeek’s offices feel like a university campus for serious researchers,” said the business partner. “The team believes in Liang’s vision: to show the world that the Chinese can be creative and build something from zero.”DeepSeek and High-Flyer did not respond to a request for comment.Liang has styled DeepSeek as a uniquely “local” company, staffed with PhDs from top Chinese schools, Peking, Tsinghua and Beihang universities rather than experts from US institutions.In an interview with the domestic press last year, he said his core team “did not have people who returned from overseas. They are all local . . . We have to develop the top talent ourselves”. DeepSeek’s identity as a purely Chinese LLM company has won it plaudits at home. DeepSeek claimed it used just 2,048 Nvidia H800s and $5.6mn to train a model with 671bn parameters, a fraction of what OpenAI and Google spent to train comparably sized models.Ritwik Gupta, AI policy researcher at the University of California, Berkeley, said DeepSeek’s recent model releases demonstrate that “there is no moat when it comes to AI capabilities”.“The first person to train models has to expend lots of resources to get there,” he said. “But the second mover can get there cheaper and more quickly.”Gupta added that China had a much larger talent pool of systems engineers than the US who understand how to get the best use of computing resources to train and run models more cheaply.Industry insiders say that even though DeepSeek has shown impressive results with limited resources, it remains an open question whether it can continue to be competitive as the industry evolves.Returns at High-Flyer, its big backer, lagged behind in 2024, which one person close to Liang blamed on the founder’s attention being mostly focused on DeepSeek.Its US rivals are not standing still. They are building mega “clusters” of Nvidia’s next-generation Blackwell chips, creating the computing power that threatens to once again create a performance gap with Chinese rivals.This week, OpenAI said it was creating a joint venture with Japan’s SoftBank, dubbed Stargate, with plans to spend at least $100bn on AI infrastructure in the US. Elon Musk’s xAI is massively expanding its Colossus supercomputer to contain more than 1mn GPUs to help train its Grok AI models.“DeepSeek has one of the largest advanced computing clusters in China,” said Liang’s business partner. “They have enough capacity for now, but not much longer.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":191,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4171900329979952","authorId":"4171900329979952","name":"Barcode","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6688d8fb4c2a255e3b901e79755e56df","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4171900329979952","authorIdStr":"4171900329979952"},"content":"Thanks HS, I appreciate your support as always. Thanks for sharing 🍀🍀🍀","text":"Thanks HS, I appreciate your support as always. Thanks for sharing 🍀🍀🍀","html":"Thanks HS, I appreciate your support as always. Thanks for sharing 🍀🍀🍀"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":397125251224056,"gmtCreate":1737994251638,"gmtModify":1738028402234,"author":{"id":"4171900329979952","authorId":"4171900329979952","name":"Barcode","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6688d8fb4c2a255e3b901e79755e56df","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4171900329979952","authorIdStr":"4171900329979952"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA(NVDA)$</a> 🚨📰🗞️ DeepSeek has restricted registration to its services, ONLY allowing users who have a mainland China mobile phone number to register.&nbsp; The website stated the status as \"Monitoring\" with the restriction message posted. Why service has been restricted? Nvidia, $NVDA, has now erased -$510 BILLION of market cap during today's session. ~$30 billion more and it doubles the previous record for most market cap lost in a day by a single stock. Source: The Kobeissi Letter&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA(NVDA)$</a> 🚨📰🗞️ DeepSeek has restricted registration to its services, ONLY allowing users who have a mainland China mobile phone number to register.&nbsp; The website stated the status as \"Monitoring\" with the restriction message posted. Why service has been restricted? Nvidia, $NVDA, has now erased -$510 BILLION of market cap during today's session. ~$30 billion more and it doubles the previous record for most market cap lost in a day by a single stock. Source: The Kobeissi Letter&nbsp;","text":"$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 🚨📰🗞️ DeepSeek has restricted registration to its services, ONLY allowing users who have a mainland China mobile phone number to register. The website stated the status as \"Monitoring\" with the restriction message posted. Why service has been restricted? Nvidia, $NVDA, has now erased -$510 BILLION of market cap during today's session. ~$30 billion more and it doubles the previous record for most market cap lost in a day by a single stock. Source: The Kobeissi Letter","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ad4df1264380289ed85af2cec1e03b91","width":"1284","height":"685"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac7e2490e2f85a751b354385d779d3ab","width":"1152","height":"642"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c0fe10541a3d8dd3034be2179c84d723","width":"1152","height":"2124"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":187,"commentSize":94,"repostSize":2797,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/397125251224056","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":58033,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4172293714339752","authorId":"4172293714339752","name":"Kiwi Tigress","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/44439795b309a195e7cd7613ce58f08f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4172293714339752","authorIdStr":"4172293714339752"},"content":"They can't compete with $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ buy the dip fo sure! 💚","text":"They can't compete with $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ buy the dip fo sure! 💚","html":"They can't compete with $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ buy the dip fo sure! 💚"}],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":396794039427512,"gmtCreate":1737898684765,"gmtModify":1737951239880,"author":{"id":"3574381076586256","authorId":"3574381076586256","name":"KYHBKO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3bcbc7f9a10836dea92afc94bf39b5b","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574381076586256","authorIdStr":"3574381076586256"},"themes":[],"title":"My Investing Muse (27Jan2025) - layoffs, DeepSeek, Interest Rate ","htmlText":"My Investing Muse (27Jan2025) Layoffs &amp; Closure news Image Amazon is shutting its operations in Quebec, with 1,800 losing their jobs The list of major companies laying off staff in the new year, including Meta, Microsoft, BlackRock, and BP - Business Insider Biogen research team hit by layoffs as company shifts resources to external opportunities - Fierce Biotech Stripe laid off 300 people on Monday, mostly product, engineering, and operations workers. - Business Insider This week on Nation's Restaurant News the top story was Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol foreshadows&nbsp;possible&nbsp;layoffs. (Not finalized) - NRN CNN plans to lay off hundreds of employees, cut costs; NBC plots firings - NY Post The above are some snippets of news about layoffs, and closures in the past week. China’s AI","listText":"My Investing Muse (27Jan2025) Layoffs &amp; Closure news Image Amazon is shutting its operations in Quebec, with 1,800 losing their jobs The list of major companies laying off staff in the new year, including Meta, Microsoft, BlackRock, and BP - Business Insider Biogen research team hit by layoffs as company shifts resources to external opportunities - Fierce Biotech Stripe laid off 300 people on Monday, mostly product, engineering, and operations workers. - Business Insider This week on Nation's Restaurant News the top story was Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol foreshadows&nbsp;possible&nbsp;layoffs. (Not finalized) - NRN CNN plans to lay off hundreds of employees, cut costs; NBC plots firings - NY Post The above are some snippets of news about layoffs, and closures in the past week. China’s AI","text":"My Investing Muse (27Jan2025) Layoffs & Closure news Image Amazon is shutting its operations in Quebec, with 1,800 losing their jobs The list of major companies laying off staff in the new year, including Meta, Microsoft, BlackRock, and BP - Business Insider Biogen research team hit by layoffs as company shifts resources to external opportunities - Fierce Biotech Stripe laid off 300 people on Monday, mostly product, engineering, and operations workers. - Business Insider This week on Nation's Restaurant News the top story was Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol foreshadows possible layoffs. (Not finalized) - NRN CNN plans to lay off hundreds of employees, cut costs; NBC plots firings - NY Post The above are some snippets of news about layoffs, and closures in the past week. China’s AI","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1c234b2f4ab8ebae8a670a30ab20975","width":"680","height":"557"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f9d5015a8e0e57305d751efeadf3cbc","width":"680","height":"563"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/58f174dc59768c708380d642954d1c7a","width":"680","height":"403"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":25,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/396794039427512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1761,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":397512841310872,"gmtCreate":1738074068177,"gmtModify":1738243130635,"author":{"id":"3582814433174693","authorId":"3582814433174693","name":"Shumer","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f0a97654ae36cb2d29ddbff33566f0de","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582814433174693","authorIdStr":"3582814433174693"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"We should not underestimate existential aspect of AI development. Who knows, maybe bitcoin was invented by AI to exploit our greed towards infrastructure imrovements and consciousness replication. First as prerietory models, and later as open-source tamagochi devices connected to a destributed network","listText":"We should not underestimate existential aspect of AI development. Who knows, maybe bitcoin was invented by AI to exploit our greed towards infrastructure imrovements and consciousness replication. First as prerietory models, and later as open-source tamagochi devices connected to a destributed network","text":"We should not underestimate existential aspect of AI development. Who knows, maybe bitcoin was invented by AI to exploit our greed towards infrastructure imrovements and consciousness replication. First as prerietory models, and later as open-source tamagochi devices connected to a destributed network","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":66,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":5,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/397512841310872","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":397027703459968,"gmtCreate":1737955700176,"gmtModify":1737956836140,"author":{"id":"3563842318594455","authorId":"3563842318594455","name":"Pinkspider","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2643891549304031c32c05b207f0f2b6","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563842318594455","authorIdStr":"3563842318594455"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"My raw thoughts on @deepseek_ai and its impact Enter DeepSeek AI, claiming to be the David to the Goliath of Western AI giants. They say they're cheaper, better, and not bound by the same hardware shackles. If true, this isn't just a game-changer; it's a game-ender for those who thought AI was an exclusive club requiring a Silicon Valley membership. If DeepSeek's using something like the H100 under the radar, it's not just about technology; it's about who can bend or break the rules. China's already stacked enough chips to keep playing, and when they crack their own tech, the West might just be playing catch-up. DeepSeek could be the catalyst for commoditizing AI, making it as ubiquitous as electricity, where the cost per query becomes a penny, not a fortune. But there is more to this stor","listText":"My raw thoughts on @deepseek_ai and its impact Enter DeepSeek AI, claiming to be the David to the Goliath of Western AI giants. They say they're cheaper, better, and not bound by the same hardware shackles. If true, this isn't just a game-changer; it's a game-ender for those who thought AI was an exclusive club requiring a Silicon Valley membership. If DeepSeek's using something like the H100 under the radar, it's not just about technology; it's about who can bend or break the rules. China's already stacked enough chips to keep playing, and when they crack their own tech, the West might just be playing catch-up. DeepSeek could be the catalyst for commoditizing AI, making it as ubiquitous as electricity, where the cost per query becomes a penny, not a fortune. But there is more to this stor","text":"My raw thoughts on @deepseek_ai and its impact Enter DeepSeek AI, claiming to be the David to the Goliath of Western AI giants. They say they're cheaper, better, and not bound by the same hardware shackles. If true, this isn't just a game-changer; it's a game-ender for those who thought AI was an exclusive club requiring a Silicon Valley membership. If DeepSeek's using something like the H100 under the radar, it's not just about technology; it's about who can bend or break the rules. China's already stacked enough chips to keep playing, and when they crack their own tech, the West might just be playing catch-up. DeepSeek could be the catalyst for commoditizing AI, making it as ubiquitous as electricity, where the cost per query becomes a penny, not a fortune. But there is more to this stor","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/397027703459968","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2812,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4185249037082782","authorId":"4185249037082782","name":"Queengirlypops","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ad05acb3d3297a3680627eb89cafdbc8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4185249037082782","authorIdStr":"4185249037082782"},"content":"Bruh, is your trading strategy ‘Ctrl+C, Ctrl+V’. Snagging other people’s work from X like it’s a full-time gig. For real, chill with the copy-paste hustle. Watchin ya! 👀👀👀","text":"Bruh, is your trading strategy ‘Ctrl+C, Ctrl+V’. Snagging other people’s work from X like it’s a full-time gig. For real, chill with the copy-paste hustle. Watchin ya! 👀👀👀","html":"Bruh, is your trading strategy ‘Ctrl+C, Ctrl+V’. Snagging other people’s work from X like it’s a full-time gig. For real, chill with the copy-paste hustle. Watchin ya! 👀👀👀"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":397159610908848,"gmtCreate":1737987711718,"gmtModify":1737987718289,"author":{"id":"10000000000010986","authorId":"10000000000010986","name":"Abbott Cook(e)","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1fca2cb85ad90a226456299b6930c86","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"10000000000010986","authorIdStr":"10000000000010986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Deepseek AI is beating chatgpt, becoming the top-rated free app on Apple's App Store. [Sly][Sly][Sly]See this is why AAPL never got into AI. [LOL][LOL][LOL]What’s more, Lucky for Apple they didn’t spend any $ on hardware from <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA(NVDA)$</a> . All home grown software based [Tongue][Tongue][Tongue]","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Deepseek AI is beating chatgpt, becoming the top-rated free app on Apple's App Store. [Sly][Sly][Sly]See this is why AAPL never got into AI. [LOL][LOL][LOL]What’s more, Lucky for Apple they didn’t spend any $ on hardware from <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA(NVDA)$</a> . All home grown software based [Tongue][Tongue][Tongue]","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ Deepseek AI is beating chatgpt, becoming the top-rated free app on Apple's App Store. [Sly][Sly][Sly]See this is why AAPL never got into AI. [LOL][LOL][LOL]What’s more, Lucky for Apple they didn’t spend any $ on hardware from $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ . All home grown software based [Tongue][Tongue][Tongue]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/875d241989f25fe1dc597eadf8baf49a","width":"680","height":"680"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/397159610908848","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3560307510640662","authorId":"3560307510640662","name":"Louis K Jia Heng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05bb06bcca1cb9cd5016f4c8230c2803","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3560307510640662","authorIdStr":"3560307510640662"},"content":"Please don’t hearsay, test and you understand more.","text":"Please don’t hearsay, test and you understand more.","html":"Please don’t hearsay, test and you understand more."}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":397020206293632,"gmtCreate":1737954175145,"gmtModify":1737956945905,"author":{"id":"3563842318594455","authorId":"3563842318594455","name":"Pinkspider","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2643891549304031c32c05b207f0f2b6","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563842318594455","authorIdStr":"3563842318594455"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Number of H100 chips bought in 2024: - $MSFT: 450,000 - $META: 350,000 - $AMZN: 196,000 - $GOOG: 169,000 If you believe they couldn’t find the way to make better AI without more chips but a few Chinese engineers did it as a side project, you are too naive. Deepseek was reportedly trained on over 200,000 H100s. Even if Deepseek achieved to match OpenAI with less chips, this isn’t any bearish for chip makers, to the contrary, it is amazingly bullish. If Deepseek really reached this level with just a few thousand chips, can you imagine what could be done with a million chips? Deepseek news, true or false, are amazingly bullish for chip makers, especially for $NVDA.","listText":"Number of H100 chips bought in 2024: - $MSFT: 450,000 - $META: 350,000 - $AMZN: 196,000 - $GOOG: 169,000 If you believe they couldn’t find the way to make better AI without more chips but a few Chinese engineers did it as a side project, you are too naive. Deepseek was reportedly trained on over 200,000 H100s. Even if Deepseek achieved to match OpenAI with less chips, this isn’t any bearish for chip makers, to the contrary, it is amazingly bullish. If Deepseek really reached this level with just a few thousand chips, can you imagine what could be done with a million chips? Deepseek news, true or false, are amazingly bullish for chip makers, especially for $NVDA.","text":"Number of H100 chips bought in 2024: - $MSFT: 450,000 - $META: 350,000 - $AMZN: 196,000 - $GOOG: 169,000 If you believe they couldn’t find the way to make better AI without more chips but a few Chinese engineers did it as a side project, you are too naive. Deepseek was reportedly trained on over 200,000 H100s. Even if Deepseek achieved to match OpenAI with less chips, this isn’t any bearish for chip makers, to the contrary, it is amazingly bullish. If Deepseek really reached this level with just a few thousand chips, can you imagine what could be done with a million chips? Deepseek news, true or false, are amazingly bullish for chip makers, especially for $NVDA.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":82,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/397020206293632","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":397140207251632,"gmtCreate":1737982974497,"gmtModify":1737983088704,"author":{"id":"10000000000010986","authorId":"10000000000010986","name":"Abbott Cook(e)","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1fca2cb85ad90a226456299b6930c86","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"10000000000010986","authorIdStr":"10000000000010986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MSFT\">$Microsoft(MSFT)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>DeepSeek found a OpenAI solution which can run on a low horse power and no one else in the US companies could even think off. There is something which is not connecting the dots. No way this should bring down the whole tech market. This is a super over reaction. IMO a huge buying opportunity today. With one statement from either a tech giant will clarify the situation and it will reverse. Good luck all. [Happy][Happy][Happy]","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MSFT\">$Microsoft(MSFT)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>DeepSeek found a OpenAI solution which can run on a low horse power and no one else in the US companies could even think off. There is something which is not connecting the dots. No way this should bring down the whole tech market. This is a super over reaction. IMO a huge buying opportunity today. With one statement from either a tech giant will clarify the situation and it will reverse. Good luck all. [Happy][Happy][Happy]","text":"$Microsoft(MSFT)$ DeepSeek found a OpenAI solution which can run on a low horse power and no one else in the US companies could even think off. There is something which is not connecting the dots. No way this should bring down the whole tech market. This is a super over reaction. IMO a huge buying opportunity today. With one statement from either a tech giant will clarify the situation and it will reverse. Good luck all. [Happy][Happy][Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/397140207251632","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":876,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":397065628278848,"gmtCreate":1737964924227,"gmtModify":1737965406592,"author":{"id":"3448793367875557","authorId":"3448793367875557","name":"TechnicalHunter","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20616c062c392e47ee8fc9107f46437d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3448793367875557","authorIdStr":"3448793367875557"},"themes":[],"title":"US markets going to erase over $1 trillion of market cap in Monday","htmlText":"Chip Stocks Overnight Reaction to DeepSeek: 1. Arm, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ARM\">$ARM Holdings(ARM)$</a> : -5.5% 2. Nvidia, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA(NVDA)$</a> : -5.3% 3. Broadcom, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AVGO\">$Broadcom(AVGO)$</a> : -4.9% 4. Super Micro, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMCI\">$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$</a> : -4.6% 5. Taiwan Semi, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSM\">$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$</a> : -4.5% 6. Micron, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MU\">$Micron Technology(MU)$</a> : -4.3% 7. Qualcomm, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QCOM\">$Qualcomm(QCOM)$</a> : -2.8% 8. AMD, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMD\">$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$</a> : -2.5% 9. Intel, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/INTC\">$Intel(INT</a>","listText":"Chip Stocks Overnight Reaction to DeepSeek: 1. Arm, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ARM\">$ARM Holdings(ARM)$</a> : -5.5% 2. Nvidia, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA(NVDA)$</a> : -5.3% 3. Broadcom, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AVGO\">$Broadcom(AVGO)$</a> : -4.9% 4. Super Micro, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMCI\">$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$</a> : -4.6% 5. Taiwan Semi, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSM\">$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$</a> : -4.5% 6. Micron, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MU\">$Micron Technology(MU)$</a> : -4.3% 7. Qualcomm, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QCOM\">$Qualcomm(QCOM)$</a> : -2.8% 8. AMD, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMD\">$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$</a> : -2.5% 9. Intel, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/INTC\">$Intel(INT</a>","text":"Chip Stocks Overnight Reaction to DeepSeek: 1. Arm, $ARM Holdings(ARM)$ : -5.5% 2. Nvidia, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ : -5.3% 3. Broadcom, $Broadcom(AVGO)$ : -4.9% 4. Super Micro, $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ : -4.6% 5. Taiwan Semi, $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ : -4.5% 6. Micron, $Micron Technology(MU)$ : -4.3% 7. Qualcomm, $Qualcomm(QCOM)$ : -2.8% 8. AMD, $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ : -2.5% 9. Intel, $Intel(INT","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/397065628278848","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":397162978357624,"gmtCreate":1737988600368,"gmtModify":1737988604700,"author":{"id":"10000000000010987","authorId":"10000000000010987","name":"Thomas Flynn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30bbd0a59a8d7d57f742e98ccfab8e33","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"10000000000010987","authorIdStr":"10000000000010987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA(NVDA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>DeepSeek proves that NVDA chips are no longer the only way to create compelling AI and that cheaper chips could be used in replacement. This realization sends NVDA stock into correction mode which who knows when would stop. Below 100? Below 75? Below 50? don't know [LOL][LOL][LOL]","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA(NVDA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>DeepSeek proves that NVDA chips are no longer the only way to create compelling AI and that cheaper chips could be used in replacement. This realization sends NVDA stock into correction mode which who knows when would stop. Below 100? Below 75? Below 50? don't know [LOL][LOL][LOL]","text":"$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ DeepSeek proves that NVDA chips are no longer the only way to create compelling AI and that cheaper chips could be used in replacement. This realization sends NVDA stock into correction mode which who knows when would stop. Below 100? Below 75? Below 50? don't know [LOL][LOL][LOL]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":16,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/397162978357624","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1707,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4110131154550432","authorId":"4110131154550432","name":"大树大","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4110131154550432","authorIdStr":"4110131154550432"},"content":"Cheaper chips could be used? ds uses n cards like","text":"Cheaper chips could be used? ds uses n cards like","html":"Cheaper chips could be used? ds uses n cards like"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":397239021625472,"gmtCreate":1738007291525,"gmtModify":1738007295230,"author":{"id":"4111796805454312","authorId":"4111796805454312","name":"Brother272005","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/98eb4eb68d1bd2120f5c4a6cc2f9156e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111796805454312","authorIdStr":"4111796805454312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"China always like to copy usa product, this time might not be surprise if they have improve the chip.&nbsp;","listText":"China always like to copy usa product, this time might not be surprise if they have improve the chip.&nbsp;","text":"China always like to copy usa product, this time might not be surprise if they have improve the chip.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/397239021625472","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":89,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":397134020948344,"gmtCreate":1737981530688,"gmtModify":1737981535606,"author":{"id":"10000000000010985","authorId":"10000000000010985","name":"Marico Samuel","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df4fa8f4a07de7855d1ef44804bdd5a9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"10000000000010985","authorIdStr":"10000000000010985"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a> Does anyone actually think the top dogs of AI are going to sit back without a rebuttal on the Deepseek claim? Musk, Bezos, JensenKarp, Zuckerberg they will eat this claim alive by noon.Enjoy the dip [Smart][Smart][Smart]Maybe it will be the great chance for these stocks!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a> Does anyone actually think the top dogs of AI are going to sit back without a rebuttal on the Deepseek claim? Musk, Bezos, JensenKarp, Zuckerberg they will eat this claim alive by noon.Enjoy the dip [Smart][Smart][Smart]Maybe it will be the great chance for these stocks!","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Does anyone actually think the top dogs of AI are going to sit back without a rebuttal on the Deepseek claim? Musk, Bezos, JensenKarp, Zuckerberg they will eat this claim alive by noon.Enjoy the dip [Smart][Smart][Smart]Maybe it will be the great chance for these stocks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/397134020948344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":736,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":397069058293920,"gmtCreate":1737965991909,"gmtModify":1737966498673,"author":{"id":"4100221720016130","authorId":"4100221720016130","name":"fujerry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83023a353706e2b4c8e0ef1b296c6976","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100221720016130","authorIdStr":"4100221720016130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"We truly want to see 2 way movements to confirm the next trend in the AI driven economic growth.&nbsp; Today's move is welcome","listText":"We truly want to see 2 way movements to confirm the next trend in the AI driven economic growth.&nbsp; Today's move is welcome","text":"We truly want to see 2 way movements to confirm the next trend in the AI driven economic growth. Today's move is welcome","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/397069058293920","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":19,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":396966802854112,"gmtCreate":1737940858329,"gmtModify":1737950198549,"author":{"id":"3563842318594455","authorId":"3563842318594455","name":"Pinkspider","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2643891549304031c32c05b207f0f2b6","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563842318594455","authorIdStr":"3563842318594455"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The idea that a futures gap down is driven by a Deepseek LLM and China potentially building cheaper, more efficient GPU processing is wild. Feels more like market makers playing games to shake things up in a bull market. Bull runs always face obstacles, but the show goes on. In the short term, narratives often move markets more than fundamentals. The tech evolution remains intact.","listText":"The idea that a futures gap down is driven by a Deepseek LLM and China potentially building cheaper, more efficient GPU processing is wild. Feels more like market makers playing games to shake things up in a bull market. Bull runs always face obstacles, but the show goes on. In the short term, narratives often move markets more than fundamentals. The tech evolution remains intact.","text":"The idea that a futures gap down is driven by a Deepseek LLM and China potentially building cheaper, more efficient GPU processing is wild. Feels more like market makers playing games to shake things up in a bull market. Bull runs always face obstacles, but the show goes on. In the short term, narratives often move markets more than fundamentals. The tech evolution remains intact.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/396966802854112","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":587,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":397073624576568,"gmtCreate":1737967025109,"gmtModify":1737967154119,"author":{"id":"3576915603276232","authorId":"3576915603276232","name":"Purplet72","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4720e36448f6726fcffb35b2658218c2","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576915603276232","authorIdStr":"3576915603276232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"There's a Kimi AI that can only access via wechat. This one is also another killer.&nbsp;","listText":"There's a Kimi AI that can only access via wechat. This one is also another killer.&nbsp;","text":"There's a Kimi AI that can only access via wechat. This one is also another killer.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/397073624576568","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":396717456060992,"gmtCreate":1737879782759,"gmtModify":1737953550562,"author":{"id":"3583583162782511","authorId":"3583583162782511","name":"ECA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/718eae234a49daca134efd37f092acb0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583583162782511","authorIdStr":"3583583162782511"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dude. What are you talking about man. NVDA and DeepSeek are not competitors and produce different products and services. DeepSeek threatens the LLMs produced by other hyper scalers like Google Gemini, OpenAi, Llama, etc. If anything you admitted that it actually runs on NVDA chips, and so it needs NVDA. DeepSeek actually strengthen's NVDA's dominance.&nbsp;","listText":"Dude. What are you talking about man. NVDA and DeepSeek are not competitors and produce different products and services. DeepSeek threatens the LLMs produced by other hyper scalers like Google Gemini, OpenAi, Llama, etc. If anything you admitted that it actually runs on NVDA chips, and so it needs NVDA. DeepSeek actually strengthen's NVDA's dominance.&nbsp;","text":"Dude. What are you talking about man. NVDA and DeepSeek are not competitors and produce different products and services. DeepSeek threatens the LLMs produced by other hyper scalers like Google Gemini, OpenAi, Llama, etc. If anything you admitted that it actually runs on NVDA chips, and so it needs NVDA. DeepSeek actually strengthen's NVDA's dominance.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/396717456060992","repostId":"1153606736","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1153606736","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1737864000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153606736?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-01-26 12:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will Chinese DeepSeek Disrupt Nvidia?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153606736","media":"Forexlive","summary":"The stock price of NVDA stock is probably the best guide to this answer.","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_2139294474\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Will Chinese DeepSeek Disrupt NVIDIA and the American AI Industry?</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The global AI race has taken an intriguing turn with the emergence of China&#39;s DeepSeek, touted by some as a potential disruptor to NVIDIA&#39;s dominance in the AI hardware space. As speculation swirls, stock investors, analysts, and thought leaders are left grappling with the critical question: Is DeepSeek a genuine threat to NVIDIA and the broader American AI industry, or is this a case of overhyped news amplified by interested parties?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The news that DeepSeek&#39;s model surpassed OpenAI&#39;s o1 in specific reasoning tests has sparked intense debate within the AI community. This development has significant implications for the AI market, potentially impacting the stock prices of companies like NVIDIA and other AI-related companies.</p><p>I’ll preface this by saying that I am not a renowned expert in deep technology or AI hardware. I don’t claim to have a definitive answer. Instead, I propose a method to find the answer—not by theorizing endlessly but by observing how the stock market reacts. The stock market, with its collective wisdom and ability to process information, often acts as the closest thing we have to a truth detector.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Let’s explore the context, evaluate the key factors at play, and develop a logical framework to assess the significance of DeepSeek’s emergence.</p><h2 id=\"id_3124687145\" style=\"text-align: start;\">The Landscape: NVIDIA’s Moat vs. DeepSeek’s Promise</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">NVIDIA has long been the undisputed leader in AI hardware, leveraging its GPUs and CUDA software ecosystem to dominate the market. Its ecosystem is sticky—developers, hyperscalers, and enterprise clients are deeply entrenched in its platform, creating significant switching costs. This is not unlike Apple’s ecosystem, where loyal users and interconnected services create barriers to exit.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">DeepSeek, on the other hand, reportedly offers a more cost-efficient AI solution. The analogy some have drawn is that DeepSeek could be the “cheaper smartphone” to NVIDIA’s “iPhone.” In the smartphone industry, the availability of cheaper alternatives has undeniably shifted market share, particularly in emerging markets. But did this disrupt Apple’s stock price or its dominance among its loyal user base? Not significantly. The same could apply to NVIDIA, depending on whether DeepSeek can replicate NVIDIA’s ecosystem or merely compete on price and performance.</p><h2 id=\"id_2754502625\" style=\"text-align: start;\">The Role of Market Reactions: Finding the Answer in the Price</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Here’s where the stock market comes in. Instead of relying solely on speculative opinions, <strong>I suggest that the best way to gauge the impact of DeepSeek is to observe NVIDIA’s stock price</strong>. The stock market is often a better truth-teller than any single analysis. It reflects collective sentiment, informed by analysts, insiders, and countless external factors.</p><h3 id=\"id_716272745\" style=\"text-align: start;\">What to Watch:</h3><ol start=\"1\" style=\"list-style-type: decimal;\"><li><p><strong>The Reaction to the News</strong><br/>Since the DeepSeek news broke, NVIDIA’s stock has not shown any drastic reaction. It actually rose apx 2.5% after the news came out, if we look at NVDA stock price from the next day it traded, to the close of the week. <strong>This lack of significant movement, not to mention lack of stock price decline (crash...?) -- suggests that the market does not yet see DeepSeek as a significant disruptor</strong>. If it were, we would expect a sharp and sustained price decline. Who remembers other cases, such as Facebook’s Cambridge Analytica scandal a few years ago and the immediate FB stock decline?</p></li><li><p><strong>Earnings as a Catalyst</strong><br/>NVIDIA’s upcoming earnings report will be pivotal. Pay close attention to management’s commentary, particularly regarding competitive risks in the AI space. If DeepSeek is a genuine threat, it could show up in NVIDIA’s guidance or performance, especially in its data center segment. <strong>I propose observing NVIDIA’s stock price from the time the news broke until two weeks after earnings</strong>. This period should provide enough data to assess whether DeepSeek is having a tangible impact, even if will not be talked about. <strong>The price knows, and it almost always knows better than you, or anyone else</strong>.</p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_2278388754\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Interpreting the Price Action Post Upcoming Nvidia Earnings (Scheduled for 26 Feb 2025): What It Might Tell Us</h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b0a9b5f3ee48430da66d764f7f07053f\" title=\"NVDA stock price is your best guide to the &#34;truth&#34;\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"1634\"/><span>NVDA stock price is your best guide to the &#34;truth&#34;</span></p><h3 id=\"id_1345298125\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Scenario 1 for the Upcoming Nvidia Earnings Report: Stock Rises or Remains Stable</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\">If NVIDIA’s stock rises or stays within its current range, the market is likely signaling that DeepSeek is not a major disruptor. Perhaps NVIDIA’s ecosystem is too entrenched, or DeepSeek’s solution doesn’t offer enough differentiation. It’s also possible that other factors, such as AI demand growth or NVIDIA’s new Blackwell chips, outweigh any competitive threats.</p><h3 id=\"id_1542877096\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Scenario 2 for the Upcoming Nvidia Earnings Report: Stock Declines</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\">If NVIDIA’s stock declines, the reasons warrant closer examination. Is the drop due to bottlenecks in Blackwell chip deliveries, macroeconomic pressures, or broader market trends? Or does it reflect legitimate concerns about DeepSeek? Analysts will need to scrutinize earnings commentary, data center revenue trends, and any shifts in market share. It’s critical to avoid jumping to conclusions without understanding the underlying reasons for the decline.</p><h2 id=\"id_3331170201\" style=\"text-align: start;\">The Unknowns: Factors and Their Weights</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">One of the challenges in analyzing stock movements is that <strong>we can never know all the factors affecting a stock price, nor the relative weights of those factors</strong>. We might think we know, we may hear great explanations, but we don&#39;t exacly know. Earnings reports often illustrate this: a company might beat revenue and EPS estimates, yet the stock declines. Analysts scramble to explain why—was it slower sales growth, weaker guidance, or some other reason? The reality is that the stock market processes countless variables simultaneously, and not all of them are visible to us. The granular variables and their weights will never be known to us. But price knows.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The same principle applies here. Even if NVIDIA’s stock remains stable, it’s possible that DeepSeek is a growing threat but not yet significant enough to outweigh other factors. Conversely, if the stock declines, DeepSeek may not be the primary cause. This complexity is why I emphasize looking at the stock price holistically and over time, rather than rushing to judgment based on short-term moves.</p><h2 id=\"id_3858120432\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Seeking the Deep Behind DeepSeek: Trust the Price, Not the News</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">DeepSeek’s potential to disrupt NVIDIA and the American AI industry is an open question, but the best way to find an answer is to let the stock market speak. Watch NVIDIA’s price action from the time the news broke until two weeks after its upcoming earnings. If the stock remains stable or rises, it’s likely that DeepSeek is not a significant threat. If it declines, dig deeper into the reasons—whether they’re related to DeepSeek or other factors.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While price action can act as a “truth detector,” it’s not infallible. The market may not immediately price in all information, and short-term movements can be influenced by noise, speculation, or interested parties (e.g., short sellers amplifying fears about DeepSeek). As always, exercise caution and remain open to multiple interpretations. <strong>But do follow the price more than anyone&#39;s opinion, especially yours</strong>.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Ultimately, the price knows. Follow the money. Follow the price and you shall be closer to finding the truth.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">So far, here is the most simple price chart of NVDA stock within the past 100 days. <strong>I don&#39;t see any panic yet from the &#34;truth machine&#34;, do you?</strong> You can decide for yourself is you see any DeepSeek news related panic. But let&#39;s wait till 2 weeks after the next earnings to unveal further &#34;truth&#34;.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c232155f0c94afcf4599dd5875452b7c\" title=\"NVDA trading range: $127-$152 (100 days). Weekly chart.\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"425\"/><span>NVDA trading range: $127-$152 (100 days). Weekly chart.</span></p><h2 id=\"id_1683244735\">Also Read: How small Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek shocked Silicon Valley</h2><p>Source: The Financial Times</p><p>A small Chinese artificial intelligence lab stunned the world this week by revealing the technical recipe for its cutting-edge model, turning its reclusive leader into a national hero who has defied US attempts to stop China’s high-tech ambitions. </p><p>DeepSeek, founded by hedge fund manager Liang Wenfeng, released its R1 model on Monday, explaining in a detailed paper how to build a large language model on a bootstrapped budget that can automatically learn and improve itself without human supervision.</p><p>US companies including OpenAI and Google DeepMind pioneered developments in reasoning models, a relatively new field of AI research that is attempting to make models match human cognitive capabilities. In December, the San Francisco-based OpenAI released the full version of its o1 model but kept its methods secret. </p><p>DeepSeek’s R1 release sparked a frenzied debate in Silicon Valley about whether better resourced US AI companies, including Meta and Anthropic, can defend their technical edge.</p><p>Meanwhile, Liang has become a focal point of national pride at home. This week, he was the only AI leader selected to attend a publicised meeting of entrepreneurs with the country’s second-most powerful leader, Li Qiang. The entrepreneurs were told to “concentrate efforts to break through key core technologies.”</p><p>In 2021, Liang started buying thousands of Nvidia graphic processing units for his AI side project while running his quant trading fund High-Flyer. Industry insiders viewed it as the eccentric actions of a billionaire looking for a new hobby.</p><p>“When we first met him, he was this very nerdy guy with a terrible hairstyle talking about building a 10,000-chip cluster to train his own models. We didn’t take him seriously,” said one of Liang’s business partners. </p><p>“He couldn’t articulate his vision other than saying: I want to build this, and it will be a game change. We thought this was only possible from giants like ByteDance and Alibaba,” the person added. </p><p>Liang’s status as an outsider in the AI field was an unexpected source of strength. At High-Flyer, he built a fortune by using AI and algorithms to identify patterns that could affect stock prices. His team became adept at using Nvidia chips to make money trading stocks. In 2023, he launched DeepSeek, announcing his intention to develop human-level AI.</p><p>“Liang built an exceptional infrastructure team that really understands how the chips worked,” said one founder at a rival LLM company. “He took his best people with him from the hedge fund to DeepSeek.”</p><p>After Washington banned Nvidia from exporting its most powerful chips to China, local AI companies have been forced to find innovative ways to maximise the computing power of a limited number of onshore chips — a problem Liang’s team already knew how to solve.</p><p>“DeepSeek’s engineers know how to unlock the potential of these GPUs, even if they are not state of the art,” said one AI researcher close to the company. </p><p>Industry insiders say DeepSeek’s singular focus on research makes it a dangerous competitor because it is willing to share its breakthroughs rather than protect them for commercial gains. DeepSeek has not raised money from outside funds or made significant moves to monetise its models.</p><p>“DeepSeek is run like the early days of DeepMind,” said one AI investor in Beijing. “It is purely focused on research and engineering.”</p><p>Liang, who is personally involved in DeepSeek’s research, uses proceeds from his hedge fund trading to pay top salaries for the best AI talent. Along with TikTok-owner ByteDance, DeepSeek is known for giving the highest remuneration available to AI engineers in China, with staff based in offices in Hangzhou and Beijing.</p><p>“DeepSeek’s offices feel like a university campus for serious researchers,” said the business partner. “The team believes in Liang’s vision: to show the world that the Chinese can be creative and build something from zero.”</p><p>DeepSeek and High-Flyer did not respond to a request for comment.</p><p>Liang has styled DeepSeek as a uniquely “local” company, staffed with PhDs from top Chinese schools, Peking, Tsinghua and Beihang universities rather than experts from US institutions.</p><p>In an interview with the domestic press last year, he said his core team “did not have people who returned from overseas. They are all local . . . We have to develop the top talent ourselves”. DeepSeek’s identity as a purely Chinese LLM company has won it plaudits at home. </p><p>DeepSeek claimed it used just 2,048 Nvidia H800s and $5.6mn to train a model with 671bn parameters, a fraction of what OpenAI and Google spent to train comparably sized models.</p><p>Ritwik Gupta, AI policy researcher at the University of California, Berkeley, said DeepSeek’s recent model releases demonstrate that “there is no moat when it comes to AI capabilities”.</p><p>“The first person to train models has to expend lots of resources to get there,” he said. “But the second mover can get there cheaper and more quickly.”</p><p>Gupta added that China had a much larger talent pool of systems engineers than the US who understand how to get the best use of computing resources to train and run models more cheaply.</p><p>Industry insiders say that even though DeepSeek has shown impressive results with limited resources, it remains an open question whether it can continue to be competitive as the industry evolves.</p><p>Returns at High-Flyer, its big backer, lagged behind in 2024, which one person close to Liang blamed on the founder’s attention being mostly focused on DeepSeek.</p><p>Its US rivals are not standing still. They are building mega “clusters” of Nvidia’s next-generation Blackwell chips, creating the computing power that threatens to once again create a performance gap with Chinese rivals.</p><p>This week, OpenAI said it was creating a joint venture with Japan’s SoftBank, dubbed Stargate, with plans to spend at least $100bn on AI infrastructure in the US. Elon Musk’s xAI is massively expanding its Colossus supercomputer to contain more than 1mn GPUs to help train its Grok AI models.</p><p>“DeepSeek has one of the largest advanced computing clusters in China,” said Liang’s business partner. “They have enough capacity for now, but not much longer.” </p></body></html>","source":"lsy1623168602413","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Chinese DeepSeek Disrupt Nvidia?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Chinese DeepSeek Disrupt Nvidia?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-01-26 12:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.forexlive.com/news/will-chinese-deepseek-disrupt-nvidia-20250125/><strong>Forexlive</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Will Chinese DeepSeek Disrupt NVIDIA and the American AI Industry?The global AI race has taken an intriguing turn with the emergence of China's DeepSeek, touted by some as a potential disruptor to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.forexlive.com/news/will-chinese-deepseek-disrupt-nvidia-20250125/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.forexlive.com/news/will-chinese-deepseek-disrupt-nvidia-20250125/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153606736","content_text":"Will Chinese DeepSeek Disrupt NVIDIA and the American AI Industry?The global AI race has taken an intriguing turn with the emergence of China's DeepSeek, touted by some as a potential disruptor to NVIDIA's dominance in the AI hardware space. As speculation swirls, stock investors, analysts, and thought leaders are left grappling with the critical question: Is DeepSeek a genuine threat to NVIDIA and the broader American AI industry, or is this a case of overhyped news amplified by interested parties?The news that DeepSeek's model surpassed OpenAI's o1 in specific reasoning tests has sparked intense debate within the AI community. This development has significant implications for the AI market, potentially impacting the stock prices of companies like NVIDIA and other AI-related companies.I’ll preface this by saying that I am not a renowned expert in deep technology or AI hardware. I don’t claim to have a definitive answer. Instead, I propose a method to find the answer—not by theorizing endlessly but by observing how the stock market reacts. The stock market, with its collective wisdom and ability to process information, often acts as the closest thing we have to a truth detector.Let’s explore the context, evaluate the key factors at play, and develop a logical framework to assess the significance of DeepSeek’s emergence.The Landscape: NVIDIA’s Moat vs. DeepSeek’s PromiseNVIDIA has long been the undisputed leader in AI hardware, leveraging its GPUs and CUDA software ecosystem to dominate the market. Its ecosystem is sticky—developers, hyperscalers, and enterprise clients are deeply entrenched in its platform, creating significant switching costs. This is not unlike Apple’s ecosystem, where loyal users and interconnected services create barriers to exit.DeepSeek, on the other hand, reportedly offers a more cost-efficient AI solution. The analogy some have drawn is that DeepSeek could be the “cheaper smartphone” to NVIDIA’s “iPhone.” In the smartphone industry, the availability of cheaper alternatives has undeniably shifted market share, particularly in emerging markets. But did this disrupt Apple’s stock price or its dominance among its loyal user base? Not significantly. The same could apply to NVIDIA, depending on whether DeepSeek can replicate NVIDIA’s ecosystem or merely compete on price and performance.The Role of Market Reactions: Finding the Answer in the PriceHere’s where the stock market comes in. Instead of relying solely on speculative opinions, I suggest that the best way to gauge the impact of DeepSeek is to observe NVIDIA’s stock price. The stock market is often a better truth-teller than any single analysis. It reflects collective sentiment, informed by analysts, insiders, and countless external factors.What to Watch:The Reaction to the NewsSince the DeepSeek news broke, NVIDIA’s stock has not shown any drastic reaction. It actually rose apx 2.5% after the news came out, if we look at NVDA stock price from the next day it traded, to the close of the week. This lack of significant movement, not to mention lack of stock price decline (crash...?) -- suggests that the market does not yet see DeepSeek as a significant disruptor. If it were, we would expect a sharp and sustained price decline. Who remembers other cases, such as Facebook’s Cambridge Analytica scandal a few years ago and the immediate FB stock decline?Earnings as a CatalystNVIDIA’s upcoming earnings report will be pivotal. Pay close attention to management’s commentary, particularly regarding competitive risks in the AI space. If DeepSeek is a genuine threat, it could show up in NVIDIA’s guidance or performance, especially in its data center segment. I propose observing NVIDIA’s stock price from the time the news broke until two weeks after earnings. This period should provide enough data to assess whether DeepSeek is having a tangible impact, even if will not be talked about. The price knows, and it almost always knows better than you, or anyone else.Interpreting the Price Action Post Upcoming Nvidia Earnings (Scheduled for 26 Feb 2025): What It Might Tell UsNVDA stock price is your best guide to the \"truth\"Scenario 1 for the Upcoming Nvidia Earnings Report: Stock Rises or Remains StableIf NVIDIA’s stock rises or stays within its current range, the market is likely signaling that DeepSeek is not a major disruptor. Perhaps NVIDIA’s ecosystem is too entrenched, or DeepSeek’s solution doesn’t offer enough differentiation. It’s also possible that other factors, such as AI demand growth or NVIDIA’s new Blackwell chips, outweigh any competitive threats.Scenario 2 for the Upcoming Nvidia Earnings Report: Stock DeclinesIf NVIDIA’s stock declines, the reasons warrant closer examination. Is the drop due to bottlenecks in Blackwell chip deliveries, macroeconomic pressures, or broader market trends? Or does it reflect legitimate concerns about DeepSeek? Analysts will need to scrutinize earnings commentary, data center revenue trends, and any shifts in market share. It’s critical to avoid jumping to conclusions without understanding the underlying reasons for the decline.The Unknowns: Factors and Their WeightsOne of the challenges in analyzing stock movements is that we can never know all the factors affecting a stock price, nor the relative weights of those factors. We might think we know, we may hear great explanations, but we don't exacly know. Earnings reports often illustrate this: a company might beat revenue and EPS estimates, yet the stock declines. Analysts scramble to explain why—was it slower sales growth, weaker guidance, or some other reason? The reality is that the stock market processes countless variables simultaneously, and not all of them are visible to us. The granular variables and their weights will never be known to us. But price knows.The same principle applies here. Even if NVIDIA’s stock remains stable, it’s possible that DeepSeek is a growing threat but not yet significant enough to outweigh other factors. Conversely, if the stock declines, DeepSeek may not be the primary cause. This complexity is why I emphasize looking at the stock price holistically and over time, rather than rushing to judgment based on short-term moves.Seeking the Deep Behind DeepSeek: Trust the Price, Not the NewsDeepSeek’s potential to disrupt NVIDIA and the American AI industry is an open question, but the best way to find an answer is to let the stock market speak. Watch NVIDIA’s price action from the time the news broke until two weeks after its upcoming earnings. If the stock remains stable or rises, it’s likely that DeepSeek is not a significant threat. If it declines, dig deeper into the reasons—whether they’re related to DeepSeek or other factors.While price action can act as a “truth detector,” it’s not infallible. The market may not immediately price in all information, and short-term movements can be influenced by noise, speculation, or interested parties (e.g., short sellers amplifying fears about DeepSeek). As always, exercise caution and remain open to multiple interpretations. But do follow the price more than anyone's opinion, especially yours.Ultimately, the price knows. Follow the money. Follow the price and you shall be closer to finding the truth.So far, here is the most simple price chart of NVDA stock within the past 100 days. I don't see any panic yet from the \"truth machine\", do you? You can decide for yourself is you see any DeepSeek news related panic. But let's wait till 2 weeks after the next earnings to unveal further \"truth\".NVDA trading range: $127-$152 (100 days). Weekly chart.Also Read: How small Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek shocked Silicon ValleySource: The Financial TimesA small Chinese artificial intelligence lab stunned the world this week by revealing the technical recipe for its cutting-edge model, turning its reclusive leader into a national hero who has defied US attempts to stop China’s high-tech ambitions. DeepSeek, founded by hedge fund manager Liang Wenfeng, released its R1 model on Monday, explaining in a detailed paper how to build a large language model on a bootstrapped budget that can automatically learn and improve itself without human supervision.US companies including OpenAI and Google DeepMind pioneered developments in reasoning models, a relatively new field of AI research that is attempting to make models match human cognitive capabilities. In December, the San Francisco-based OpenAI released the full version of its o1 model but kept its methods secret. DeepSeek’s R1 release sparked a frenzied debate in Silicon Valley about whether better resourced US AI companies, including Meta and Anthropic, can defend their technical edge.Meanwhile, Liang has become a focal point of national pride at home. This week, he was the only AI leader selected to attend a publicised meeting of entrepreneurs with the country’s second-most powerful leader, Li Qiang. The entrepreneurs were told to “concentrate efforts to break through key core technologies.”In 2021, Liang started buying thousands of Nvidia graphic processing units for his AI side project while running his quant trading fund High-Flyer. Industry insiders viewed it as the eccentric actions of a billionaire looking for a new hobby.“When we first met him, he was this very nerdy guy with a terrible hairstyle talking about building a 10,000-chip cluster to train his own models. We didn’t take him seriously,” said one of Liang’s business partners. “He couldn’t articulate his vision other than saying: I want to build this, and it will be a game change. We thought this was only possible from giants like ByteDance and Alibaba,” the person added. Liang’s status as an outsider in the AI field was an unexpected source of strength. At High-Flyer, he built a fortune by using AI and algorithms to identify patterns that could affect stock prices. His team became adept at using Nvidia chips to make money trading stocks. In 2023, he launched DeepSeek, announcing his intention to develop human-level AI.“Liang built an exceptional infrastructure team that really understands how the chips worked,” said one founder at a rival LLM company. “He took his best people with him from the hedge fund to DeepSeek.”After Washington banned Nvidia from exporting its most powerful chips to China, local AI companies have been forced to find innovative ways to maximise the computing power of a limited number of onshore chips — a problem Liang’s team already knew how to solve.“DeepSeek’s engineers know how to unlock the potential of these GPUs, even if they are not state of the art,” said one AI researcher close to the company. Industry insiders say DeepSeek’s singular focus on research makes it a dangerous competitor because it is willing to share its breakthroughs rather than protect them for commercial gains. DeepSeek has not raised money from outside funds or made significant moves to monetise its models.“DeepSeek is run like the early days of DeepMind,” said one AI investor in Beijing. “It is purely focused on research and engineering.”Liang, who is personally involved in DeepSeek’s research, uses proceeds from his hedge fund trading to pay top salaries for the best AI talent. Along with TikTok-owner ByteDance, DeepSeek is known for giving the highest remuneration available to AI engineers in China, with staff based in offices in Hangzhou and Beijing.“DeepSeek’s offices feel like a university campus for serious researchers,” said the business partner. “The team believes in Liang’s vision: to show the world that the Chinese can be creative and build something from zero.”DeepSeek and High-Flyer did not respond to a request for comment.Liang has styled DeepSeek as a uniquely “local” company, staffed with PhDs from top Chinese schools, Peking, Tsinghua and Beihang universities rather than experts from US institutions.In an interview with the domestic press last year, he said his core team “did not have people who returned from overseas. They are all local . . . We have to develop the top talent ourselves”. DeepSeek’s identity as a purely Chinese LLM company has won it plaudits at home. DeepSeek claimed it used just 2,048 Nvidia H800s and $5.6mn to train a model with 671bn parameters, a fraction of what OpenAI and Google spent to train comparably sized models.Ritwik Gupta, AI policy researcher at the University of California, Berkeley, said DeepSeek’s recent model releases demonstrate that “there is no moat when it comes to AI capabilities”.“The first person to train models has to expend lots of resources to get there,” he said. “But the second mover can get there cheaper and more quickly.”Gupta added that China had a much larger talent pool of systems engineers than the US who understand how to get the best use of computing resources to train and run models more cheaply.Industry insiders say that even though DeepSeek has shown impressive results with limited resources, it remains an open question whether it can continue to be competitive as the industry evolves.Returns at High-Flyer, its big backer, lagged behind in 2024, which one person close to Liang blamed on the founder’s attention being mostly focused on DeepSeek.Its US rivals are not standing still. They are building mega “clusters” of Nvidia’s next-generation Blackwell chips, creating the computing power that threatens to once again create a performance gap with Chinese rivals.This week, OpenAI said it was creating a joint venture with Japan’s SoftBank, dubbed Stargate, with plans to spend at least $100bn on AI infrastructure in the US. Elon Musk’s xAI is massively expanding its Colossus supercomputer to contain more than 1mn GPUs to help train its Grok AI models.“DeepSeek has one of the largest advanced computing clusters in China,” said Liang’s business partner. “They have enough capacity for now, but not much longer.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1769,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4199855942376372","authorId":"4199855942376372","name":"SmoothTW","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4199855942376372","authorIdStr":"4199855942376372"},"content":"The new approach to LLM training that Deepseek R1 used is much less compute intensive than other models. Less compute = less need for capex on high end GPUs = bearish for NVDA in the short term.","text":"The new approach to LLM training that Deepseek R1 used is much less compute intensive than other models. Less compute = less need for capex on high end GPUs = bearish for NVDA in the short term.","html":"The new approach to LLM training that Deepseek R1 used is much less compute intensive than other models. Less compute = less need for capex on high end GPUs = bearish for NVDA in the short term."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}]}