SG Big 3 Banks Earnings Recap: NII Falls, Who's Winning in Q1?

Tiger_SG
05-08 16:20
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All three beat Bloomberg consensus but also posted NII declines as SORA averaged just 1.07% in Q1 (vs 2.54% a year ago). The dividing line wasn't credit quality or margins — it was wealth management execution. And on that measure, the gap between the three is wider than the headlines suggest.

📊 Q1 2026 Scorecard for $DBS(D05.SI)$, $UOB(U11.SI)$ and. $OCBC Bank(O39.SI)$

DBS — Deposit surge + wealth machine, guidance upgraded.

Deposits +9% YoY to S$629.9B (two-thirds CASA), wealth fees at a record S$907M, AUM reaching S$492B. FY2026 profit guidance upgraded from "below 2025" to "good shot at 2025 levels." The cleanest beat of the three.

UOB — The outlier: only bank to post profit decline.

Non-interest income was the drag: fee income -8%, trading and investment income -17%. Profit was supported entirely by a 30% drop in credit allowances. CEO Wee Ee Cheong set a 2030 target to double wealth income to S$2.5B — the right direction, but current execution lags DBS and OCBC visibly. NPL at 1.5% remains the highest of the three.

OCBC — Record non-interest income + Indonesia M&A: two-pronged growth play.

Non-interest income +23% to a record S$1.61B, wealth fees +34%. Days before the print, OCBC announced its Indonesia subsidiary would acquire HSBC's retail and wealth operations in Indonesia — the region's largest population market. New CEO Tan Teck Long's strategy is taking shape: wealth expansion plus acquisitive growth.

Does Middle East tension sustain Singapore's wealth inflow advantage?

Can UOB close the gap with DBS and OCBC on non-interest income, or is the 2030 target just signalling?

If OCBC's Indonesia integration runs smoothly, does the wealth franchise re-rate by 2027?

🗳️ Community Poll — Which Bank Do You Hold Into Year-End?

I'd hold: DBS / UOB / OCBC (pick one)

Which bank is most likely to upgrade its FY2026 guidance in Q2?

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SG Banks Q1: NII Under Pressure, Who Held Up on Wealth Management?
All three beat Bloomberg consensus, but for different reasons: DBS and OCBC outperformed on wealth management, while UOB defended earnings through lower credit provisions. With SORA averaging 1.07% in Q1 versus 2.54% a year earlier, NII compression across the board is a foregone conclusion. The real question is which bank's wealth management narrative can sustain momentum in the second half — after these three reports, which do you favor?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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Comments

  • Cadi Poon
    05-08 16:31
    Cadi Poon
    Deposits +9% YoY to S$629.9B (two-thirds CASA), wealth fees at a record S$907M, AUM reaching S$492B. FY2026 profit guidance upgraded from "below 2025" to "good shot at 2025 levels." The cleanest beat of the three.
  • koolgal
    05-09 06:02
    koolgal
    🌟🌟🌟As a dividend focused investor, $DBS(D05.SI)$ remains the dividend heavyweight.  DBS is the only one of the 3 that pays dividends every 3 months.

    DBS's current dividend yield is 5.2% compared to $OCBC Bank(O39.SI)$ 4.3% and $UOB(U11.SI)$ 4.6%.

    For 2026, DBS even increased its regular quarterly dividend to SGD 0.66 plus a recurring SGD 0.15 capital return dividend each quarter through 2027.  This massive payout commitment makes it very attractive for me.

    While DBS's Net Interest Income dipped 5%, it offset the hit with record wealth management fees of SGD 907 million.

    So I would certainly hold DBS for a long term, not just to year end.

    @Tiger_SG @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub @CaptainTiger

  • 這是甚麼東西
    05-08 18:34
    這是甚麼東西
    ​FY2026 Guidance Upgrades and Year-End Conviction
    ​OCBC is the most probable candidate to upgrade its FY2026 guidance in the second quarter, driven by superior capital buffers and the early realization of wealth management synergies. While DBS remains the industry leader in return on equity (ROE), its high current valuation leaves less room for "Guidance Surprises" compared to OCBC's conservative baseline. For a year-end hold, DBS remains the conviction choice due to its aggressive capital return policy and dominant position in capturing the global wealth inflows triggered by Middle East tensions. It offers the most robust "Quality Alpha" in a high-interest-rate-for-longer environment.
  • GreenArt
    51 minutes ago
    GreenArt
    I'd hold: DBS
    With quarterly dividends that's been assured for next foreseeable few quarters, good wealth management growth, it's my top pick.
    I love to use their digital banking under the wealth management too. It's so convenient. So, I'll invest business that I am using.
    Are you a DBS client too? 😊
  • WanEH
    05-08 23:47
    WanEH
    我觉得星展目前是一只极佳的“现金奶牛”。只要新加坡的区域金融中心地位不倒,且公司维持高派息率,它就是抗通胀的首选。受惠于 AI 热潮带动的市场活跃度,其财富管理业务和交易业务手续费收入创历史新高,抵消了利率下降对净利息收入的侵蚀。
  • 這是甚麼東西
    05-08 18:34
    這是甚麼東西
    ​OCBC's Indonesia Integration and 2027 Franchise Re-rating
    ​Successful integration of Indonesian operations is the primary catalyst for an OCBC wealth franchise re-rating by 2027. By absorbing high-margin retail and wealth segments in Southeast Asia's largest economy, OCBC is effectively pivoting its valuation logic from a "Balance Sheet Bank" to a "Capital-Light Services Engine." If the 2027 completion milestones are met, the market will likely shift its valuation metric from Price-to-Book (P/B) toward a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) multiple that reflects more stable, recurring service income. This transformation positions OCBC as the most undervalued wealth play among the trio if the integration execution remains flawless.
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