S&P 500 Concludes Best Month Since 2020! Chase New High or Take Profits?

Tiger_comments
05-01
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April's final session: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed at all-time highs (+1%), $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ +0.89%. Full month: S&P 500 +10.4%, Nasdaq +14.8% — the strongest single-month return since the post-COVID rebound in 2020.

Based on historical data, if multiple new highs are reached in April, the subsequent market performance is usually relatively strong.

But Goldman and BofA Are Both Flashing Yellow

Goldman Sachs Macro (April 30):

S&P rallied 14% from the late-March low to record highs, but the median S&P 500 constituent is still 13% below its 52-week high — market breadth is at its narrowest in decades outside the Dot-Com Bubble.

The Momentum factor is up +25% YTD, with hedge fund Momentum net exposure near 5-year highs. The divergence is extreme: semiconductors +30% since the Iran War (Feb 28), but equal-weight S&P -1%, Consumer Staples -5%, Health Care -9%.

BofA Securities (week of April 20-26):

As the S&P hits new highs, clients have posted 6 consecutive weeks of single-stock outflows ($3.9B last week). Institutional clients were net sellers in 5 of the last 6 weeks. Rolling 4-week net flow: -$1.2B.

But the good news is: “Clients bought Tech stocks (after selling them for 4-weeks) ahead of a busy Tech earnings week.”

Will the bull run continue into may?

Goldman flags that historically, after breadth narrows this sharply, 3-6 month drawdown risk increases significantly. But the fundamental case is real — $725B in confirmed CapEx, supply-constrained storage, and Big Tech earnings that beat on every line.

Do you chase the new high or wait for a pullback?

Which sector do you think catches up?

Leave your comments to win at least 5 tiger coins~

S&P 500 Concludes Best Month! Shall We Sell In May?
April's final session: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed at all-time highs (+1%), $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ +0.89%. Full month: S&P 500 +10.4%, Nasdaq +14.8% — the strongest single-month return since the post-COVID rebound in 2020. Based on historical data, if multiple new highs are reached in April, the subsequent market performance is usually relatively strong. Will the bull run continue into may? Do you chase the new high or wait for a pullback? Which sector do you think catches up?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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Comments

  • koolgal
    05-02
    koolgal
    🌟🌟🌟 To chase or not to chase?  The FOMO vs the Dip Dilemma.

    April was simply unreal.  The S&P500 didn't just break records.  It simply sprinted up Everest without stopping for oxygen.

    The reality for me?  I am choosing Sanity.

    While my heart wants to chase the thrill and my head wants to wait for the 5% discount that might never come, I have decided to stick to my "Boring Brilliance" strategy.

    I am staying the course with the heavy hitters : $SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF(SPYM)$ which tracks 500 of  the best & strongest US companies and $STI ETF(ES3.SI)$ - Singapore's creme de la creme blue chips companies.

    These 2 ETFs are not flashy.  They don't post to the moon memes but they show up to work every single day.

    My plan for May is to let the Pros stress over the daily candles.  I am just letting my Dollar Cost Averaging or DCA do the heavy lifting.

    If the market hits new highs - Great.  If not, my next DCA just got a May discount.

    @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG

  • Shyon
    05-06
    Shyon
    From my perspective, I’m not chasing this breakout aggressively. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ at all-time highs is bullish, but narrow breadth is a warning. When only a few names — especially semis — drive gains while the median stock lags, the market becomes more fragile.

    That said, I’m not bearish either because the AI capex story is still strong. Instead of chasing, I’d rather wait for a pullback or some rotation to reset positioning before adding exposure. Positioning also looks crowded, especially in momentum trades, which increases the risk of sharp reversals.

    I think laggards like healthcare or staples could catch up if conditions shift, but structurally tech leadership remains intact — it’s more about timing than direction. If yields stay elevated, defensives may see relative inflows. If rates ease, growth could re-accelerate and extend the rally.

    @TigerStars @Tiger_comments @TigerClub

  • 這是甚麼東西
    05-03
    這是甚麼東西
    May Bull Run OutlookThe bull run will likely persist through May. While narrow breadth is a technical red flag, the massive "fundamental floor" created by $725 billion in committed CapEx acts as a powerful buffer. Earnings quality remains superior to previous cycles, and as long as Big Tech continues to beat and raise, the momentum remains skewed to the upside despite seasonal "Sell in May" cliches.
  • Lanceljx
    05-03
    Lanceljx
    Breadth narrowing is a warning sign, but not an immediate sell signal. With ~$725B in committed AI capex, strong hyperscaler earnings, and supply bottlenecks in memory, power and cooling, the structural bull case remains intact.

    My take: bull run likely continues into May, but leadership broadens and volatility rises.

    I would not chase index highs here. Prefer buying pullbacks or rotating into laggards.

    Catch-up sectors:
    • Utilities / power infrastructure, the hidden AI backbone
    • Industrials, cooling, electrical equipment, grid upgrades
    • Healthcare, defensive growth at better valuations
    • Financials, if rates stay higher for longer
    • Selective small caps, if breadth expands again

    Mega-cap AI still leads, but second-order beneficiaries may offer better risk/reward now. The next leg up may look broader, not just higher.

  • MHh
    05-02
    MHh
    Sometimes it is wise to follow the smart money. There is net outflows which means many have taken profit. I have taken some profit in March and I am getting nervous with the highs achieved. Buffet himself is sitting on even more cash. Never fight against the wise men. I won’t be chasing the high. I am just waiting for a little more as I think the market can go up a little more and I would be taking profit. Part of it the market over-reacting to the potential optimism of the Iran war ending but we don’t know for real when it will end.


    I have always been bullish on tech and the semiconductor industries and think they will do well for the long term. Staples and healthcare are essential with inelastic demand. We don’t know how long the economy will hold up but fears of stagflation has been there for the past 2 years. If stagflation happens, staples and healthcare will catch up.
    @Kaixiang @DiAngel @SPOT_ON @LuckyPiggie @Success88 @SR050321 @Fenger1188 @Universe宇宙 come join
  • Cadi Poon
    05-01
    Cadi Poon
    The Momentum factor is up +25% YTD, with hedge fund Momentum net exposure near 5-year highs. The divergence is extreme: semiconductors +30% since the Iran War (Feb 28), but equal-weight S&P -1%, Consumer Staples -5%, Health Care -9%.
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