Is Bitcoin Bull Run Over or A New Cycle Starting?

Bitcoin had gone as low as $60K, but we saw it rebound to around $69K to $70K over the weekend, and now it is hovering around $70,000 at time of writing.

What does it signal? If the Bitcoin bull run over? or are we going to see a super cycle restart? What are the signs and signals investors should look out for?

We have seen how the market react to Strategy earnings release, and it have kind of affected some crypto-related stocks, $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$'s next earnings date is confirmed for Thursday 12 Feb 2026 after market next week, so will we see how investors on Coinbase have been acquiring Bitcoin and if the trend is poised to continue.

In this article, we would like to look at a disciplined way to interpret the $60K → ~$70K rebound and what it signals in the context of this cycle.

What the $60K Flush and $70K Rebound Actually Signals

This was a regime test, not a cycle termination.

The move down toward ~$60K had three characteristics of a mid-cycle shakeout rather than a bear-market start:

Liquidity-driven selloff

• Driven by risk-off flows (rates, USD strength, equity volatility), not a Bitcoin-specific structural failure.

• No breakdown in ETF flows, custody, or network health.

Strong demand response

• Aggressive spot buying near $60K (long-term holders, institutions).

• Derivatives funding reset from crowded longs → neutral/negative (healthy).

Fast reclaim of key levels

• Rebound back above major psychological and technical zones (~$65K–$68K) signals buyers still control higher timeframes.

In prior cycles, true tops are distributive and slow. This move was fast, emotional, and liquidative.

Is the Bitcoin Bull Run Over?

Base case: No. But leadership is being tested.

Bitcoin bull markets typically end with:

• Sustained lower highs

• Distribution at elevated levels (weeks/months)

• Euphoria + leverage expansion

• On-chain deterioration

None of those conditions are fully present yet.

Current state:

• Trend: Still structurally bullish on weekly/monthly charts

• Momentum: Cooling, not broken

• Positioning: Healthier post-flush

• Macro: Mixed but not hostile enough to kill crypto outright

This looks more like “mid-cycle consolidation” than “cycle peak.”

Super Cycle vs Normal Cycle — What Changes the Outcome?

“Super Cycle” Requires 3 Things (All Must Hold)

Persistent institutional inflows

• Spot ETF inflows must resume and sustain (weeks, not days)

• Pension, sovereign, or large allocator participation

Macro liquidity tailwind

• Fed pivot / easing bias

• USD softening

• Financial conditions loosening

Bitcoin decoupling from risk assets

• BTC outperforming equities during mild risk-off

• Treated as a macro hedge, not a levered NASDAQ proxy

If Bitcoin continues to trade like high-beta tech, this remains a normal cycle, not a super cycle.

Key Signs to Watch (Actionable Signals)

Bullish Continuation Signals

Watch for these to confirm the bull run is resuming:

Higher Low Above $60K–$62K

• A second test that holds higher = strong accumulation signal

Weekly Close Above $72K–$75K

• Confirms trend continuation

• Invalidates “lower high” risk

ETF Net Inflows Resume

• Especially during sideways price action (stealth accumulation)

On-chain Holder Behavior

• Long-term holders NOT distributing

• Exchange balances continue declining

Neutral / Range-Bound Signals

Suggests consolidation, not collapse:

• BTC chops between ~$60K–$75K

• Funding rates stay flat

• Altcoins underperform BTC

• Volatility compresses

This often precedes a trend expansion, not a breakdown.

Bearish / Cycle-Top Signals (Not Yet Seen)

These would suggest the bull run is ending:

1. Failure to reclaim $70K–$72K after multiple attempts

2. Weekly close below $58K

Structural breakdown

• ETF outflows + rising exchange balances

• Parabolic retail participation

Search trends, leverage spikes, meme mania dominance

If those align, risk shifts decisively lower.

How Investors Should Position (Strategic View)

Not an “all-in or all-out” moment.

Long-term investors:

• This is a risk-managed accumulation or hold phase, not distribution.

Traders:

• Respect the range; avoid leverage until breakout confirmation.

Altcoin exposure:

• Keep selective and smaller until BTC confirms leadership again.

Bottom Line

The $60K → $70K rebound signals demand is still strong

The Bitcoin bull run is not over

This is likely a mid-cycle reset, not a cycle top

A super cycle is still possible, but not confirmed

The next 2–6 weeks of price structure and flows will determine whether BTC:

• resumes trend leadership, or

• enters a prolonged consolidation phase

In the next section, we would be exploring a market-grade framework that integrates key BTC levels with probability bands, historical drawdown analogs (2017 / 2020 / 2021), and a leadership roadmap for BTC vs ETH vs alts. This is designed to be actionable rather than narrative.

Bitcoin Key Levels — Probability-Weighted Map

Assumption: Spot BTC recently flushed to ~$60K and rebounded toward ~$70K.

A. Structural Levels (Weekly Timeframe)

Bullish Continuation Zone

$72K–$75K (Weekly close required) Probability (next 4–8 weeks): ~45%

Break + hold = trend continuation

Confirms higher low structure

Opens path to:

• $82K–$85K (measured move)

• $90K+ (momentum extension)

What to watch

• Spot-led breakout (not perp squeeze)

• ETF inflows during the breakout

• Funding remains < +0.05% (healthy)

Range / Consolidation Regime

$60K–$72K Probability: ~35%

• Most likely base case

• Volatility compression

• Market digests macro + positioning reset

Implications

• BTC dominance rises or stays elevated

• ETH & alts remain selective

• This phase typically precedes expansion, not collapse

Trend Failure Zone

Below $58K (weekly close) Probability: ~20%

Breaks prior cycle high support

Signals deeper retrace toward:

• $52K–$55K (200D MA / high-volume node)

Would require

• Sustained ETF outflows

• Broader risk-off (rates, USD spike, equity drawdown)

Tactical Reference Levels

Drawdown Comparison — 2017 vs 2020 vs 2021

Current Drawdown Context

• ~15–20% from local highs

• Fast liquidation, fast rebound

• Leverage reset, not long-term distribution

Historical Analog Matrix

Closest Analog: 2020–Early 2021

Why

• Macro liquidity still matters

• Institutional participation present

• On-chain holders not distributing aggressively

Not like 2021 peak

• No prolonged topping

• No euphoric leverage

• No sustained retail blow-off

This drawdown fits a cycle continuation correction, not a terminal top.

BTC vs ETH vs Altcoin Leadership Scenarios

This is where most investors misposition.

Scenario A: BTC-Led Expansion (Most Likely Near-Term)

Probability: ~45%

Conditions

• BTC reclaims $72K–$75K

• ETF inflows resume

• Macro neutral to mildly supportive

Market Behavior

• BTC dominance ↑

• ETH lags initially

• Alts selective, mostly large caps

Best positioning

• BTC core

• ETH light

• Alts only in:

• Infrastructure

• AI-related

• Liquidity leaders

Scenario B: ETH Catch-Up / Rotation Phase

Probability: ~30%

Trigger

• BTC ranges ($65K–$72K)

• ETH breaks key ratio resistance (ETH/BTC)

• Network catalysts (staking flows, scaling adoption)

Market Behavior

• ETH outperforms BTC

• Large-cap alts benefit (L2s, infra)

• Memes still capped

Risk

• ETH rallies fail if BTC loses $60K

Scenario C: Full Alt Season (Low Probability, Later Phase)

Probability: ~15%

Requirements

• BTC stable above highs

• ETH leadership confirmed

• Excess liquidity + retail participation

What this looks like

• BTC dominance drops sharply

• Broad-based alt outperformance

• Volatility expansion

This is late-cycle behavior, not early/mid-cycle.

Scenario D: Risk-Off / Defensive BTC

Probability: ~10%

Trigger

• Macro shock

• BTC holds better than equities but doesn’t rally

Outcome

• BTC > ETH > alts (capital preservation mode)

Practical Allocation Guidance (Non-Personalized)

Bottom Line Synthesis

• BTC $60K held = cycle intact

• Current drawdown aligns with mid-cycle resets, not tops

• BTC leadership should persist before ETH & alts

• A super cycle requires BTC to break and hold $75K+ with sustained inflows

• The next weekly close is more important than intraday volatility

Summary

The recent "flash crash" to $60,000 and the subsequent bounce to $70,000 (as of February 6-7, 2026) has turned the crypto market into a battlefield of narratives. Whether this is a "dead cat bounce" or the start of a "super cycle" depends on which signals you prioritize.

Here is a summary of the current landscape and what it signals for the future of this cycle.

1. What the Rebound to $70K Signals

The quick recovery from $60K suggests that there is still significant "buy the dip" liquidity in the market.

• Capitulation Completed? The drop to $60K triggered a massive leverage flush, with over $2.5 billion in liquidations. When the market "cleans out" over-leveraged traders, it often creates a local bottom.

• Institutional Support: The fact that Bitcoin didn't stay in the $60K range for long indicates that institutional "bargain hunters" and spot ETF demand likely stepped in at what they perceived as a major value zone.

• Market Sentiment: The Fear & Greed Index recently hit "Extreme Fear" (levels around 11–18). Historically, extreme fear often precedes a sharp relief rally.

2. Is the Bull Run Over?

Most analysts suggest the bull run isn't necessarily "over," but it has entered a distribution and cooling phase.

• Post-Peak Correction: Bitcoin is currently down about 44% from its October 2025 all-time high of ~$126,000. While painful, this is consistent with historical "mid-cycle" or "post-euphoria" corrections rather than a total market death.

• Structural Change: Unlike 2018 or 2022, the presence of massive institutional holders (like $Strategy(MSTR)$ and ETF issuers) makes an 80% collapse less likely. The "floor" has moved higher, but the "easy money" phase is likely behind us for 2026.

3. Super Cycle vs. Standard Cycle

The "Super Cycle" theory—the idea that Bitcoin will break its 4-year halving rhythm and go into a multi-year uptrend—is being tested.

• The Bull Case (Super Cycle): Proponents like Changpeng Zhao (CZ) argue that U.S. regulatory clarity and institutional adoption are "breaking the cycle." If Bitcoin stabilizes above $75K and heads toward $100K again, the super cycle narrative will regain steam.

• The Bear Case (Standard Cycle): Historical data suggests 2026 should be a year of consolidation or a "mini-bear" market following the 2024 halving. Critics argue we are simply seeing a standard post-bubble correction.

4. Key Signals for Investors to Watch

To determine if we are heading for a new high or a deeper slide, watch these three areas:

The "Danger Zone"

Watch the $72,000 – $75,000 range closely. If Bitcoin fails to break and hold this resistance, analysts warn of a "second wave" of selling that could re-test $60,000 or even $55,000.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Bitcoin would be testing the $72,000 to $75,000 next week?

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.