Alphabet vs Amazon Earnings: Who Turns AI Spend Into Revenue?

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02-04 17:26
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This week, $Alphabet(GOOG)$, with a market cap exceeding $4 trillion, and $Amazon.com(AMZN)$, currently streamlining its organization, will take center stage. This time, the market is looking beyond "Large Model" narratives to focus on real margins and ROI.

$Alphabet(GOOG)$: The "Harvest Season" of Full-Stack AI

Power of Gemini 3.0: BofA expects Search growth to rise to 15% (from 13%), driven by higher conversion rates from AI Search.

Cloud (GCP) Acceleration: With self-developed TPUs (70% unit cost reduction) and mega-deals like Anthropic, Cloud has become the fastest growth engine.

Apple Endorsement: The AI partnership with Apple is seen as a ultimate validation of its tech strength, though valuation concerns (higher than MSFT) remain.

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$: Beware the Lingering "Bullwhip Effect"

Inventory Alert: Q3 2025 inventory hit a record peak of $41.5 billion, up 21.28% YoY, far outstripping the 13% revenue growth.

Margins Peaking? Market expects Q4 net margin to pull back to 9.93% (from 11.7%), hit by inventory-driven promotions and logistics costs.

Organizational Slimming: Can the plan to cut 16,000 corporate roles offset inventory costs and sustain its premium valuation?

This Week’s Two Big Tech Reports — Google vs. Amazon, Who Beats?

Which one can hit a new all-time high?

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I think Google can close above $340, benefiting from its full-stack AI advantage.

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Alphabet Harvest Season? Can Earnings Support Stock New Highs?
Alphabet has surged on a strengthening AI narrative, pushing its market cap above $4T, second only to Nvidia. The stock is hovering near all-time highs ahead of earnings on Feb 4. Wall Street expects $2.64 EPS (+23% YoY) and $111.3B revenue (+16%), with focus squarely on whether AI momentum is translating into faster Google Cloud growth. Can AI momentum meaningfully reaccelerate Google Cloud growth this quarter? Will AI-driven Cloud growth be strong enough to justify Alphabet’s recent re-rating? Can Gemini upgrades defend Search margins amid rising competition?
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Comments

  • Shyon
    02-04 17:49
    Shyon
    I’m leaning toward $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ this week, as it’s clearly moving into the harvest phase of AI rather than just telling the story. Gemini 3.0 driving higher Search conversion is exactly what the market wants, and a re-acceleration in Search growth gives earnings a very direct boost.

    At the same time, GCP looks structurally stronger. Self-developed TPUs are lowering costs, while large deals like Anthropic support both scale and margins. The Apple AI partnership remains a strong validation of Google’s full-stack capabilities, even if valuation concerns linger.

    By comparison, I’m more cautious on $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ in the near term. Elevated inventory and expected margin pullback still pose risks, despite organizational slimming. For this week, I think the market favors clearer ROI — I believe Google can close above $340, driven by its full-stack AI edge, and it has a better chance of setting a new all-time high.

    @Tiger_comments @TigerClub @TigerStars

  • icycrystal
    02-04 19:32
    icycrystal
    For the Q4 2025 earnings season reported this week, Alphabet (Google) is expected to report its results today, February 4, 2026, after market close, while Amazon is scheduled for tomorrow, February 5, 2026. Analysts currently favor Alphabet for potential revenue growth driven by massive AI-led gains in Google Cloud, while Amazon is under scrutiny regarding its intensive capital expenditure (Capex) and AWS growth rates.

    analysts predoction-Alphabet currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) due to its extensive recent rally, while Amazon holds a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), suggesting analysts see more immediate upside potential for Amazon stock if it delivers a strong report.

    Alphabet (GOOGL): Based on the most recent intraday data and pre-earnings volatility, Alphabet is expected to close near $344.16.


    Amazon (AMZN): Amazon is projected to close around $239.61.

  • 這是甚麼東西
    02-04 18:51
    這是甚麼東西
    I think Google can close above $340, benefiting from its full-stack AI advantage, particularly with the growing adoption of Google Cloud and the increasing importance of AI-driven search and advertising revenue. The company's investments in emerging technologies like autonomous vehicles and hardware will also contribute to its long-term growth prospects.-
  • TimothyX
    02-04 23:34
    TimothyX
    庫存警報：2025年第三季度庫存創歷史新高415億美元，同比增長21.28%，遠超13%的收入增長。

    利潤率見頂？市場預計，受庫存驅動的促銷和物流成本的打擊，第四季度淨利潤率將回落至9.93%（從11.7%）。

  • Cadi Poon
    02-04 23:28
    Cadi Poon
    双子座3.0的力量：美国银行预计，在人工智能搜索转化率提高的推动下，搜索增长率将从13%升至15%。

    云(GCP)加速：凭借自研TPU（单位成本降低70%）和像Anthropic这样的大型交易，云已经成为增长最快的引擎。

    苹果背书：与苹果的人工智能合作被视为对其技术实力的最终验证，尽管估值担忧（高于MSFT）仍然存在。

  • AliceSam
    02-04 21:04
    AliceSam
    美国银行预计，在人工智能搜索转化率提高的推动下，搜索增长率将从13%升至15%。
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