Reward 1000 Tiger-coinsRecent market performance has left many tech investors disheartened. Compared to last year's widespread euphoria, the semiconductor sector seems to have been "abandoned" by the market, with capital fiercely flowing towards the latest market darling – the memory section.
While memory giants like Hynix and Micron reap huge profits from AI server demand, logic chip and architecture powerhouses are grappling with "growth premium" scrutiny. This week, AMD, SMCI, Qualcomm, and ARM, four companies at the center of the storm, will release their earnings reports.
From "Storytelling" to "Order Books"
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$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$:Challenging NVIDIA as the "Number Two Player" The market is no longer satisfied with Lisa Su showcasing the MI455 chip; they want to see concrete revenue contributions. Despite KeyBanc recently raising its price target to $270, a P/E of 128x still makes conservatives uneasy.
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$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$: In the Doldrums or Pre-Dawn? The demand for liquid-cooled servers is not the issue; the problem lies in the supply chain and profit margins. Whether management can prove that the $13 billion backlog will translate into profits as expected will determine if they can emerge from last year's shadow.
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$Qualcomm(QCOM)$: The "Disappointed" in the Mobile Market As market darlings shift to memory and AI servers, Qualcomm's position in the mobile sector appears somewhat bleak. Although supported by automotive and IoT businesses, under the shadow of Apple's in-house modems, Qualcomm urgently needs to demonstrate its monetization capabilities in AI PCs and edge AI.
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$ARM Holdings(ARM)$: The Ultimate Test of High Valuation Down 38% in three months, its P/E ratio is still twice the industry average. If the growth in ARM V9 architecture licensing fees cannot offset the valuation bubble, this "semiconductor gem" may continue to shrink.
Guess the Direction & Share 1000 Tiger Coins!
Is the market "buy the rumor, sell the news" or "exceeding expectations for a big jump"?
We invite you to predict the price movement (Jump or Drop) for the first trading day after earnings release for these four companies!
How to Participate: Leave your predictions for the price direction (Jump for rise, Drop for fall) for these four stocks in the comments.
Prize Rule: All participants who correctly guess the direction for all four companies will share 1000 Tiger Coins!
Comment Example:
AMD: Jump | SMCI: Jump | QCOM: Drop | ARM: Drop
Reason: I believe AMD's AI demand remains strong enough to support a stock jump; however, Qualcomm might experience a pullback due to the mobile market's drag.
Comments
My predictions:
AMD: Jump | SMCI: Jump | QCOM: Drop | ARM: Drop
I expect $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ to benefit from solid AI accelerator momentum and data center demand, enough to drive a post-arnings bounce. $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ , despite past issues, could see a relief rally if management shows backlog conversion and margin stabilization.
$Qualcomm(QCOM)$ still faces headwinds from a weak mobile market, with AI PC & edge AI contributions likely too early to impress. $ARM Holdings(ARM)$ , even after a sharp correction, remains, highly valued & if licensing growth doesn’t clearly exceed expectations, downside pressure may continue.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub
Traders anticipate a move of approximately ±7.5% to 8%. While AMD has historically declined after the last four reports, bullish technical setups and record revenue expectations for data center sales suggest potential for a jump back toward record highs of $265.
SMCI (Super Micro Computer): Drop
Despite high revenue growth expectations, the stock faces intense skepticism due to a track record of missing estimates in six of the last eight quarters. Options markets imply a 6.03% move, with technical analysis suggesting a drop toward 2024 lows if key support at $27 is lost.
Qualcomm (QCOM): Drop
Technical indicators lean bearish, with the stock trading below major moving averages. Analysts have recently lowered price targets due to decreased EPS estimates.
ARM Holdings: Drop
ARM has a specific pattern of dropping even after beating EPS estimates; for instance, a recent beat was followed by a 1.21% decline the next day.
虽然海力士和美光等内存巨头从人工智能服务器需求中获得了巨额利润，但逻辑芯片和架构巨头却在努力应对“增长溢价”的审查。本周，AMD、SMCI、高通和ARM、处于风暴中心的四家公司将发布财报。
Reason: I believe AMD's AI demand remains strong enough to support a stock jump; however, Qualcomm might experience a pullback due to the weak mobile market.
QCOM：Drop|ARM：Drop
原因：我相信AMD的MI455吸引力终于在账面上显现出来，而ARM的估值仍然与其当前的许可增长脱节。