Jan Review: Gold/Silver/Bitcoin Crash —Is February for Buying or Bailing?

Tiger_comments
02-02 19:51
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January trading has come to a close! While the three major U.S. indices finished in the green, the "Precious Metals Massacre" and the major leadership change at the Fed made this a highly unusual start to the year.

January Recap: S&P's "January Barometer," but Tech is Lagging?

In terms of historical win rates, January lived up to its reputation:

  • $S&P 500(.SPX)$: Up 1.37% (consistent with its 62% win rate since 1928).

  • $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ : The strongest performer, gaining 1.73% as value and blue-chip stocks took the lead.

  • $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$: Up only 0.95%, looking noticeably sluggish.

Despite the "January Barometer" flashing a green light for the year, the underperformance of tech stocks suggests that capital is being re-priced. The market is searching for a new narrative.

Month-End Earthquake: Gold/Silver Collapse, Bitcoin Stumbles

The end of January was nothing short of breathtaking. The primary trigger: Trump’s plan to nominate Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve.

Black Friday for Precious Metals:

  1. $XAG/USD(XAGUSD.FOREX)$ : Plunged 26%, its largest historical drop! $SLV trading volume exploded past $40 billion.

  2. $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ : Dropped 9%, suffering its worst single-day performance in over a decade.

A surging Dollar fueled by expectations for the new Fed Chair, combined with a market that was overstretched after weeks of endless rallying. The bubble popped instantly.

Crypto: $Bitcoin(BTC.USD.CC)$ fell to $74,600 (a 10-month low), while Ethereum retreated to levels not seen since June 2025. The anticipation of tighter liquidity is hitting risk assets hard.

February Outlook: Can the "January Effect" Hold?

1. Will "As Goes January, So Goes the Year" ring true?

Historically, a positive January suggests a bullish year. However, don't forget: After last year's January rise, the market saw three consecutive months of decline. Given the complexity of geopolitical shifts and the Fed's leadership transition, February may be a period of digestion for the "Warsh Shockwave."

2. Gold & Silver: Buying Opportunity or Falling Knife? The long-term case for gold (as a hedge and inflation shield) hasn't vanished, but the short-term technicals are severely damaged.

Let's Discuss:

  • Do you think this deep dive in Gold/Silver is a "Golden Pit" buying opportunity?

  • With tech underperforming, are you trimming your exposure to Big Tech in February?

  • Will 2026 follow the "January Barometer" to a bullish finish, or are we in for a repeat of last year's Q1 pullback?

  • How do you review earnings performance in Jan.?

Drop your thoughts in the comments below, and let's get ready for February!

Jan Review: Is February for Buying or Bailing?
January trading has come to a close! While the three major U.S. indices finished in the green, the "Precious Metals Massacre" and the major leadership change at the Fed made this a highly unusual start to the year. Do you think this deep dive in Gold/Silver is a "Golden Pit" buying opportunity? With tech underperforming, are you trimming your exposure to Big Tech in February? Will 2026 follow the "January Barometer" to a bullish finish, or are we in for a repeat of last year's Q1 pullback? How do you review earnings performance in Jan.?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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Comments

  • koolgal
    02-03 05:46
    koolgal
    🌟🌟🌟Gold & Silver: A Deep Dive or a Golden Pit?  When precious metals fall, they don't fall politely.  They swan dive.  But here is the thing : Gold and Silver rarely crash because their fundamentals break.  They crash because humans panic , algorithms overreact and liquidity dries up at the worst possible moment.

    That is why deep dives in Gold and Silver often feel like a Golden Pit - terrifying on the way down but historically rewarding for anyone brave enough to climb in with a shovel and a long term view.

    If you believe in Gold and Silver as insurance against human overreaction , then January's drop looks less like danger and more like a big sale.

    I am ready to climb in with my shovel and start digging in to find my Golden Pit.  My future self will thank me.

    @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @CaptainTiger @TigerClub

  • 1PC
    02-02 21:10
    1PC
    🐯Jan Recap: Green Indices, Crashing Metals SPX +1.37%, DJI +1.73%, IXIC +0.95% — January Barometer flashes green, but tech lagged. End‑month shock: XAG plunged 26%, XAU dropped 9%, BTC slid to $74.6K. Warsh’s hawkish Fed nomination fueled USD strength & liquidity stress.🎯My view: This deep dive is a Golden Pit opportunity — I’ll wait patiently for stabilization before adding long exposure.[Cool] @JC888 @Barcode @Shyon @koolgal @Shernice軒嬣 2000 @Aqa @DiAngel
    • Shyon: 
      Good say, thanks for sharing
  • Shyon
    02-02 21:39
    Shyon
    January closed green, but for me it was a very unusual start to the year. While the S&P 500 and Dow advanced, the NASDAQ lagged. Value and defensives leading while tech underperforms tells me this isn’t a clean risk-on rally — it’s capital rotating & the market reassessing leadership.

    The collapse in gold & silver looked like a crowded trade unwinding fast, driven by a stronger dollar & expectations of a more hawkish Fed under Kevin Warsh. Crypto selling alongside precious metals reinforces the same message: liquidity assumptions are changing, speculative assets are feeling the pressure first.

    Heading into February, I’m staying cautious. A positive January is historically supportive, but it doesn’t rule out near-term digestion, especially with a Fed leadership shift. I’m not rushing to buy gold or silver yet & on tech I’m staying selective — trimming excess exposure & focusing on earnings quality rather than chasing the bounce.

    @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub

  • Richer_Alpha
    02-03 11:14
    Richer_Alpha



    The most telling stat of January isn't the Gold crash, but the Nasdaq's sluggishness (+0.95%). When the market leaders (Big Tech) start lagging behind blue chips (‌$Dow Jones(.DJI)$  ‌), it’s usually a signal that the "easy money" phase is over.The "Warsh Shockwave" is a wake-up call that liquidity conditions might tighten faster than priced in. This explains the synchronized sell-off in zero-yield assets like Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin ($74k).Feb Outlook: I suspect February will be a choppy month of digestion. I am trimming high-beta tech exposure and holding more cash to see if the "January Effect" was a false signal. Safety first! 🛡️‌$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$  ‌


  • TimothyX
    02-03 00:01
    TimothyX
    對新任美聯儲主席的預期推動了美元飆升，加上市場在數週無休止的上漲後過度緊張。泡沫瞬間破滅。

    密碼：$比特幣(BTC.USD.CC)$跌到$74,600（10個月低點），而以太幣則回落至2025年6月以來的最高水平。流動性收緊的預期正在重創風險資產。

  • Cadi Poon
    02-03 23:50
    Cadi Poon
    从历史胜率来看，一月名不虚传：

    $标普500(.SPX)$：向上1.37%（与其1928年以来62%的胜率一致）。

    $道琼斯(.DJI)$：表现最强的，获得1.73%随着价值和蓝筹股领涨。

    $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$：仅向上0.95%，看起来明显呆滞。

    尽管“一月晴雨表”为今年亮起了绿灯，但科技股的表现不佳表明资本正在重新定价。市场正在寻找新的叙事。

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